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Sample records for model projections suggest

  1. Hypnosis, suggestion, and suggestibility: an integrative model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynn, Steven Jay; Laurence, Jean-Roch; Kirsch, Irving

    2015-01-01

    This article elucidates an integrative model of hypnosis that integrates social, cultural, cognitive, and neurophysiological variables at play both in and out of hypnosis and considers their dynamic interaction as determinants of the multifaceted experience of hypnosis. The roles of these variables are examined in the induction and suggestion stages of hypnosis, including how they are related to the experience of involuntariness, one of the hallmarks of hypnosis. It is suggested that studies of the modification of hypnotic suggestibility; cognitive flexibility; response sets and expectancies; the default-mode network; and the search for the neurophysiological correlates of hypnosis, more broadly, in conjunction with research on social psychological variables, hold much promise to further understanding of hypnosis.

  2. THE PEACE CORPS EDUCATIONAL TELEVISION PROJECT IN COLOMBIA--TWO YEARS OF RESEARCH. RESEARCH REPORT NO. 10, FEEDBACK TO THE PEACE CORPS ON PROJECT PROGRESS--SOME MODELS AND SUGGESTIONS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    COMSTOCK, GEORGE; MACCOBY, NATHAN

    RESEARCH TECHNIQUES EMPLOYED TO EVALUATE THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE PEACE CORPS ETV PROJECT STEMMED FROM TWO MODELS OF FEEDBACK. INFORMATION PROVIDED IN "INDIVIDUAL FEEDBACK" IS OF VALUE AT A PRAGMATIC LEVEL, WHEREAS INFORMATION FROM "PROJECT FEEDBACK" CAN BE USED BY ADMINISTRATORS FOR POLICY DECISIONS. THE MAJOR TOOL FOR PROJECT…

  3. Simple nonlinear models suggest variable star universality

    CERN Document Server

    Lindner, John F; Kia, Behnam; Hippke, Michael; Learned, John G; Ditto, William L

    2015-01-01

    Dramatically improved data from observatories like the CoRoT and Kepler spacecraft have recently facilitated nonlinear time series analysis and phenomenological modeling of variable stars, including the search for strange (aka fractal) or chaotic dynamics. We recently argued [Lindner et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 114 (2015) 054101] that the Kepler data includes "golden" stars, whose luminosities vary quasiperiodically with two frequencies nearly in the golden ratio, and whose secondary frequencies exhibit power-law scaling with exponent near -1.5, suggesting strange nonchaotic dynamics and singular spectra. Here we use a series of phenomenological models to make plausible the connection between golden stars and fractal spectra. We thereby suggest that at least some features of variable star dynamics reflect universal nonlinear phenomena common to even simple systems.

  4. Compensation in Swedish infrastructure projects and suggestions on policy improvements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesper Persson

    2015-07-01

    were never explicitly mentioned in permits, but in practice a ratio of 1:1 (often measured as area or length was usually applied. The compensation measures typically consisted in recreating the same kind of natural asset that was affected, in a location close to the damaged area. In the two cases specially studied, the road and railway planning processes were not properly adjusted to integrate compensation issues, resulting in unnecessary bureaucracy and insufficient co-ordination between different projects, such as between the environmental-impact assessment process and the compensation process or between closely related sub-projects in the same region. To meet the EU’s goal of no net loss of biodiversity, we suggest that policy requirements should be made stricter and that incentives for voluntary compensation should be created. In line with the goals of Swedish national transport policy and the European Landscape Convention, account should be taken of social and cultural aspects, and there should be a shift from a narrow focus on individual projects to a broader planning approach, since this would allow compensation measures to be taken where they can deliver the greatest environmental benefits.

  5. Tag Correspondence Model for User Tag Suggestion

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    涂存超; 刘知远; 孙茂松

    2015-01-01

    Some microblog services encourage users to annotate themselves with multiple tags, indicating their attributes and interests. User tags play an important role for personalized recommendation and information retrieval. In order to better understand the semantics of user tags, we propose Tag Correspondence Model (TCM) to identify complex correspondences of tags from the rich context of microblog users. The correspondence of a tag is referred to as a unique element in the context which is semantically correlated with this tag. In TCM, we divide the context of a microblog user into various sources (such as short messages, user profile, and neighbors). With a collection of users with annotated tags, TCM can automatically learn the correspondences of user tags from multiple sources. With the learned correspondences, we are able to interpret implicit semantics of tags. Moreover, for the users who have not annotated any tags, TCM can suggest tags according to users’ context information. Extensive experiments on a real-world dataset demonstrate that our method can effciently identify correspondences of tags, which may eventually represent semantic meanings of tags.

  6. Knowledge Model: Project Knowledge Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Durao, Frederico; Dolog, Peter; Grolin, Daniel

    2009-01-01

    The Knowledge model for project management serves several goals:Introducing relevant concepts of project management area for software development (Section 1). Reviewing and understanding the real case requirements from the industrial perspective. (Section 2). Giving some preliminary suggestions f...

  7. Knowledge Model: Project Knowledge Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Durao, Frederico; Dolog, Peter; Grolin, Daniel

    2009-01-01

    The Knowledge model for project management serves several goals:Introducing relevant concepts of project management area for software development (Section 1). Reviewing and understanding the real case requirements from the industrial perspective. (Section 2). Giving some preliminary suggestions...

  8. Enrollment Projection Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustafson, B. Kerry; Hample, Stephen R.

    General documentation for the Enrollment Projection Model used by the Maryland Council for Higher Education (MCHE) is provided. The manual is directed toward both the potential users of the model as well as others interested in enrollment projections. The first four chapters offer administrators or planners insight into the derivation of the…

  9. Using suggestion to model different types of automatic writing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, E; Mehta, M A; Oakley, D A; Guilmette, D N; Gabay, A; Halligan, P W; Deeley, Q

    2014-05-01

    Our sense of self includes awareness of our thoughts and movements, and our control over them. This feeling can be altered or lost in neuropsychiatric disorders as well as in phenomena such as "automatic writing" whereby writing is attributed to an external source. Here, we employed suggestion in highly hypnotically suggestible participants to model various experiences of automatic writing during a sentence completion task. Results showed that the induction of hypnosis, without additional suggestion, was associated with a small but significant reduction of control, ownership, and awareness for writing. Targeted suggestions produced a double dissociation between thought and movement components of writing, for both feelings of control and ownership, and additionally, reduced awareness of writing. Overall, suggestion produced selective alterations in the control, ownership, and awareness of thought and motor components of writing, thus enabling key aspects of automatic writing, observed across different clinical and cultural settings, to be modelled.

  10. Suggesting a General ESP Model for Adult Learners

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Jumaily, Samir

    2011-01-01

    The study suggests a general model that could guarantee the cooperation between teachers and their students to overcome the difficulties encountered in ESP learning. It tries to join together different perspectives in the research of adult education, specifically in the teaching of English for Specific Purposes. It also provides some sort of trust…

  11. Suggesting a General ESP Model for Adult Learners

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Jumaily, Samir

    2011-01-01

    The study suggests a general model that could guarantee the cooperation between teachers and their students to overcome the difficulties encountered in ESP learning. It tries to join together different perspectives in the research of adult education, specifically in the teaching of English for Specific Purposes. It also provides some sort of trust…

  12. Modelling of Arabidopsis LAX3 expression suggests auxin homeostasis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellor, Nathan; Péret, Benjamin; Porco, Silvana; Sairanen, Ilkka; Ljung, Karin; Bennett, Malcolm; King, John

    2015-02-07

    Emergence of new lateral roots from within the primary root in Arabidopsis has been shown to be regulated by the phytohormone auxin, via the expression of the auxin influx carrier LAX3, mediated by the ARF7/19 IAA14 signalling module (Swarup et al., 2008). A single cell model of the LAX3 and IAA14 auxin response was formulated and used to demonstrate that hysteresis and bistability may explain the experimentally observed 'all-or-nothing' LAX3 spatial expression pattern in cortical cells containing a gradient of auxin concentrations. The model was tested further by using a parameter fitting algorithm to match model output with qRT-PCR mRNA expression data following exogenous auxin treatment. It was found that the model is able to show good agreement with the data, but only when the exogenous auxin signal is degraded over time, at a rate higher than that measured in the experimental medium, suggesting the triggering of an endogenous auxin homeostasis mechanism. Testing the model over a more physiologically relevant range of extracellular auxin shows bistability and hysteresis still occur when using the optimised parameters, providing the rate of LAX3 active auxin transport is sufficiently high relative to passive diffusion.

  13. Function of Hexagenia (Mayfly) Burrows: Fluid Model Suggests Bacterial Gardening

    Science.gov (United States)

    Traynham, B.; Furbish, D.; Miller, M.; White, D.

    2006-12-01

    Lake and stream bottoms experience an array of physical, chemical, and biological processes that create spatial variations both in the fluid column and in the sediment that provide a physical template for distinct niches. Burrowing insects are major ecological engineers of communities where they structure large areas of the benthic habitat through bioturbation and other activities including respiration, feeding, and defecation. The burrowing mayfly Hexagenia, when present in high densities, has a large impact on food-web dynamics and provides essential ecosystem services within the fluid column and benthic substrate, including sediment mixing, nutrient cycling, and ultimately, energy flow through the freshwater food web. It has long been recognized that particular benthic species are important in linking detrital energy resources to higher trophic levels and for determining how organic matter is processed in freshwater ecosystems; however, the unique contributions made by individual benthic species is largely absent from the literature. Here we present a model that describes the structure and function of a Hexagenia burrow. If testing supports this hypothesis, the model suggests that when high food concentration is available to Hexagenia, there exists a favorable tube length for harvesting bacteria that grow on the burrow walls. The burrow microhabitat created by Hexagenia serves as a case-study in understanding the influence of benthic burrowers on both energy flow through freshwater food webs and nutrient cycling.

  14. Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating...... investment costs, with a quantitative risk analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation and to make use of a set of exploratory scenarios. The analysis is carried out by using the CBA-DK model representing the Danish standard approach to socio-economic cost-benefit analysis. Specifically, the paper proposes......-based graphs which function as risk-related decision support for the appraised transport infrastructure project....

  15. Sustainable Competitive Advantage for Educational Institutions: A Suggested Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzarol, Tim; Soutar, Geoffrey Norman

    1999-01-01

    Outlines a model of factors critical to establishing and maintaining sustainable competitive advantage for education-services enterprises in international markets. The model, which combines industrial economics, management theory, and services marketing, seeks to explain the strategic decision-making environment in which the education exporter…

  16. Sustainable Competitive Advantage for Educational Institutions: A Suggested Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzarol, Tim; Soutar, Geoffrey Norman

    1999-01-01

    Outlines a model of factors critical to establishing and maintaining sustainable competitive advantage for education-services enterprises in international markets. The model, which combines industrial economics, management theory, and services marketing, seeks to explain the strategic decision-making environment in which the education exporter…

  17. Suggesting model fragments for sentences in Dutch laws

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E. de Maat; R. Winkels

    2010-01-01

    A main issue in the field of artificial intelligence and law is the translation of source of law that are written in natural language into formal models of law. This article describes a step in that transformation: the creation of models for individual sentences in a source of law. The approach uses

  18. On grey relation projection model based on projection pursuit

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Shuo; Yang Shanlin; Ma Xijun

    2008-01-01

    Multidimensional grey relation projection value can be synthesized as one-dimensional projection value by u-sing projection pursuit model.The larger the projection value is,the better the model.Thus,according to the projection value,the best one can be chosen from the model aggregation.Because projection pursuit modeling based on accelera-ting genetic algorithm can simplify the implementation procedure of the projection pursuit technique and overcome its complex calculation as well as the difficulty in implementing its program,a new method can be obtained for choosing the best grey relation projection model based on the projection pursuit technique.

  19. Suggestion Program and Model Installation Program - Duplication of Effort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-04-01

    REPORTNUMBER88-26- TITL SUGESIONPROGAM ND ODE INSALLTIO PRGRAM -DULICTIO OF EFFORT AUTHR(S)MAJR DOALD . TOWBRDGEUSA FACUTY DVISRMAOR SEVE L.HANSN, CSC/824STU...NIP Evaluation Process............................ 13 FIGURE 3--USAF MIP Growth................................... 17 0. p.r vip I -.# EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...the study centers on program processes for submitting and evaluating proposals. The Suggestion Program and MIP processes are similar in that they both

  20. Dystechnia: technology deficient model and suggestions for entrepreneurship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romina Farhadi nahad

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Lack of interconnection among system components creates a limitation in technology adoption by the reduction or absence of potential users’ perception implying the second-order ignorance state (ignorance of ignorance. Effect of defective or fail in use, extend or logistic technology is dystechnia presenting everywhere and its origin implicitly implies in entrepreneurial opportunity. The identification and exploitation of economic potential by changing the means of economic production and control is called entrepreneurship which strategically allocate economic resource from present approach to innovative one again. Technology Adoption Model is a theoretical construct of the relationship between potential users’ perception and behavioral intentions resulting in actual technology adoption. The attention of Technology Adoption Model is assumes a practical or technological system, perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use determining the intention to use adjusting the actual acceptance respectively. This is the start of entrepreneurial solutions as an option to the dystechnic status upon which Technology Adoption Model is worked. The aim of present study is considering dystechnia phenomenon anticipating Technology Adoption Model as well as entrepreneurial mechanisms which the phenomenon is cured.

  1. Colorado Model Content Standards for Theatre: Suggested Grade Level Expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colorado State Dept. of Education, Denver.

    This booklet lists six model content standards in theater arts for elementary and secondary school students in the state of Colorado. The six standards cited in the booklet are: (1) Students develop interpersonal skills and problem-solving capabilities through group interaction and artistic collaboration; (2) Students understand and apply the…

  2. Suggestion of a Management Model: Total Entropy Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goksel Alpan,

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available “Entropy” can be defined as the measure of disorder, uncertainty and consumed energy in a system or in the Universe. In the study, entropy concept is used as metaphor and it is aimed to construct the conceptual basis of a new management model which can be utilized to manage all entropy sources effectively. The study is conveyed with a multidisciplinary and holistic approach and by the use of qualitative research techniques. In the study, it is examined the relations of the entropy concept with different disciplines like civilization history, sociology, economy, political sciences, ecology, environmental ethics, classical physics, quantum physics, nanotechnology, genetic science, information theory, network science, system theory, business management etc. and after the evaluation of the findings, it is constructed the conceptual basis of a new management model. At the beginning of the study, entropy concept is defined in detail and related concepts like social entropy, information entropy, negative entropy, heat death, matter chaos, entropic efficiency etc. are explained. Afterwards, important global entropy sources are examined and relations of the concept with actual political, economical, ecological, social and managerial problems and concepts are explained. The main aim of the study is to construct the conceptual basis of a new management model called “Total Entropy Management” which can be applied to governmental organizations, non profit organizations and business enterprises to be able to manage all entropy sources effectively.

  3. MATHEMATICAL MODEL SUGGESTED FOR THE STUDY OF THE KNEE MECHANICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius GRĂMADĂ

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Knowing the operated the knee biomechanical behavior is important during the life of the endoprosthesis,lifestyle changes and medical rehabilitation. One of the main causes of failure of a primary total prosthetic knee joint isthe instability. From the moment of its implantation, the endoprosthesis is subjected to external forces, which tend todestabilize it, while the muscles and pericapsulare ligaments oppose it. Theoretically there is a relationship between theexternal disturbing force, respectively ligament tension and the knee frontal plane deviation. The purpose of this paperis to test several mathematical models describing the biomechanical behavior of knee ligaments in relation todeviation. On a group of 39 patients we measured the torque of the joint capsule in relation to the deviation using apressure sensor tensor and a torque screwdriver, and we analyzed these data using a statistical program. We havedemonstrated the existence of this relationship as a function of degree 2 and we made predictions based on itcalculating ligament torque and ligament stiffness at 0 and 5 degrees of deviation. The conclusion of this study showsthat there is a strong relationship between ligament torque and deviation knee, which can be described mathematically.This model can be used to study the knee operated and improve the prosthetic devices.

  4. A Suggested Model for Building Robust Biomedical Implants Registries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aloufi, Bader; Alshagathrah, Fahad; Househ, Mowafa

    2017-01-01

    Registries are an essential source of information for clinical and non-clinical decision-makers; because they provide evidence for post-market clinical follow-up and early detection of safety signals for biomedical implants. Yet, many of todays biomedical implants registries are facing a variety of challenges relating to a poorly designed dataset, the reliability of inputted data and low clinician and patient participation. The purpose of this paper is to present a best practice model for the implementation and use of biomedical implants registries to monitor the safety and effectiveness of implantable medical devices. Based on a literature review and an analysis of multiple national relevant registries, we identified six factors that address contemporary challenges and are believed to be the keys for building a successful biomedical implants registry, which include: sustainable development, international comparability, data reliability, purposeful design, ease of patient participation, and collaborative development at the national level.

  5. In vitro model suggests oxidative stress involved in keratoconus disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karamichos, D.; Hutcheon, A. E. K.; Rich, C. B.; Trinkaus-Randall, V.; Asara, J. M.; Zieske, J. D.

    2014-04-01

    Keratoconus (KC) affects 1:2000 people and is a disorder where cornea thins and assumes a conical shape. Advanced KC requires surgery to maintain vision. The role of oxidative stress in KC remains unclear. We aimed to identify oxidative stress levels between human corneal keratocytes (HCKs), fibroblasts (HCFs) and keratoconus cells (HKCs). Cells were cultured in 2D and 3D systems. Vitamin C (VitC) and TGF-β3 (T3) were used for 4 weeks to stimulate self-assembled extracellular matrix (ECM). No T3 used as controls. Samples were analyzed using qRT-PCR and metabolomics. qRT-PCR data showed low levels of collagen I and V, as well as keratocan for HKCs, indicating differentiation to a myofibroblast phenotype. Collagen type III, a marker for fibrosis, was up regulated in HKCs. We robustly detected more than 150 metabolites of the targeted 250 by LC-MS/MS per condition and among those metabolites several were related to oxidative stress. Lactate levels, lactate/malate and lactate/pyruvate ratios were elevated in HKCs, while arginine and glutathione/oxidized glutathione ratio were reduced. Similar patterns found in both 2D and 3D. Our data shows that fibroblasts exhibit enhanced oxidative stress compared to keratocytes. Furthermore the HKC cells exhibit the greatest level suggesting they may have a myofibroblast phenotype.

  6. Psychiatric vulnerability: suggestions from animal models and role of neurotrophins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alleva, Enrico; Francia, Nadia

    2009-04-01

    Nerve growth factor (NGF) and brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) are well-studied neurotrophins involved in the neurogenesis, differentiation, growth and maintenance of selected peripheral and central populations of neuronal cells during development and at adulthood. Neurotrophins, in concert to hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis, play a key role in modulating brain plasticity and behavioral coping, especially during ontogenetic critical periods, when developing brain is particularly sensitive to external stimulations. Indeed, early life events, such psychophysical stress, affect NGF and BDNF levels, and induce dysregulation of the HPA axis. Thus, early life experiences can affect brain development, contributing to shape interindividual differences in vulnerability to stress or psychiatric disorders. At adulthood, intermale aggressive interactions in mice, representing a psychosocial stressful condition, has been shown to markedly alter NGF and BDNF levels both in plasma as well as in selected brain areas, including the hypothalamus and hippocampus. These results have been extended to humans, showing that blood NGF levels are enhanced in psychological contexts mainly associated to anxiety and fear, such as first skydiving experience. Recent studies indicate a role for neurotrophins also in vulnerability and resilience to stress-related neuropsychiatric disorders. Overall, these findings suggest a role of neurotrophins as factors mediating both short- and long-term experience effects on brain structure and function.

  7. Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating...... investment costs, with a quantitative risk analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation and to make use of a set of exploratory scenarios. The analysis is carried out by using the CBA-DK model representing the Danish standard approach to socio-economic cost-benefit analysis. Specifically, the paper proposes......-based graphs which functions as risk-related decision support for the appraised transport infrastructure project. The presentation of RSF is demonstrated by using an appraisal case concerning a new airfield in the capital of Greenland, Nuuk....

  8. Assessment: Projections of Its Decline and Fall with Suggestions for Its Resurrection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolen, P. A.

    1986-01-01

    Paraprofessional training in administration and scoring of educational and psychological tests for learning disability diagnosis is examined, and it is concluded that projected disadvantages outweigh advantages, indicating caution in adopting the practice. (Author/CL)

  9. Scientific education and European citizenship. Suggestions and results from the European project SEDEC (Italian original version

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Ceriani

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Two concepts seemingly distant from each other, scientific education and European citizenship, have been the basis for "SEDEC - Science Education for the Development of European Citizenship", a European project funded by the European Commission in the framework of the Socrates/Comenius programme, aiming at producing training material addressed to European teachers. Started in autumn 2005, the project will end in 2008 with an in-service training course for European teachers and educators.

  10. Benefits and Problems with Student Teams: Suggestions for Improving Team Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Randall S.

    2006-01-01

    Business school faculty have been placing students into teams for group projects for many years, with mixed results. Obvious benefits accrue in using teams, but so do numerous problems. One of the main issues is that many business faculty often place students in teams with little or no guidance on how teams properly function. In this article, the…

  11. A Procedural Model for Process Improvement Projects

    OpenAIRE

    Kreimeyer, Matthias;Daniilidis, Charampos;Lindemann, Udo

    2017-01-01

    Process improvement projects are of a complex nature. It is therefore necessary to use experience and knowledge gained in previous projects when executing a new project. Yet, there are few pragmatic planning aids, and transferring the institutional knowledge from one project to the next is difficult. This paper proposes a procedural model that extends common models for project planning to enable staff on a process improvement project to adequately plan their projects, enabling them to documen...

  12. Extensive projections of myenteric serotonergic neurons suggest they comprise the central processing unit in the colon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okamoto, T; Barton, M J; Hennig, G W; Birch, G C; Grainger, N; Corrigan, R D; Koh, S D; Sanders, K M; Smith, T K

    2014-04-01

    5-Hydroxytryptamine (5-HT, serotonin) is an important regulator of colonic motility and secretion; yet the role of serotonergic neurons in the colon is controversial. We used immunohistochemical techniques to examine their projections throughout the enteric nervous system and interstitial cells of Cajal (ICC) networks in the murine proximal to mid colon. Serotonergic neurons, which were mainly calbindin positive, occurred only in myenteric ganglia (1 per 3 ganglia). They were larger than nNOS neurons but similar in size to Dogiel Type II (AH) neurons. 5-HT neurons, appeared to make numerous varicose contacts with each other, most nNOS neurons, Dogiel Type II/AH neurons and glial cells. 5-HT, calbindin and nNOS nerve fibers also formed a thin perimuscular nerve plexus that was associated with ganglia, which contained both nNOS positive and negative neurons, which lay directly upon the submucosal pacemaker ICC network. Neurons in perimuscular ganglia were surrounded by 5-HT varicosities. Submucous ganglia contained nNOS positive and negative neurons, and calbindin positive neurons, which also appeared richly supplied by serotonergic nerve varicosities. Serotonergic nerve fibers ran along submucosal arterioles, but not veins. Varicosities of serotonergic nerve fibers were closely associated with pacemaker ICC networks and with intramuscular ICC (ICC-IM). 5-HT2B receptors were found on a subpopulation of non-5-HT containing myenteric neurons and their varicosities, pacemaker ICC-MY and ICC-IM. Myenteric serotonergic neurons, whose axons exhibit considerable divergence, regulate the entire enteric nervous system and are important in coordinating motility with secretion. They are not just interneurons, as regularly assumed, but possibly also motor neurons to ICC and blood vessels, and some may even be sensory neurons. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. A proposed model for construction project management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The lack of a proper communication skills model for project management may ... done to identify the most important project management communication skills and applications of communication that effective project managers should possess.

  14. Research Suggestions for Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, John L.

    1974-01-01

    Describes how to perform accurate research. Also includes suggestions for specific research projects under such headings as: (1) types; (2) environments; (3) interactions; (4) classification; (5) hexagonal model; and (6) differentiation. (HMV)

  15. Models and theories of prescribing decisions: A review and suggested a new model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Murshid M

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available To date, research on the prescribing decisions of physician lacks sound theoretical foundations. In fact, drug prescribing by doctors is a complex phenomenon influenced by various factors. Most of the existing studies in the area of drug prescription explain the process of decision-making by physicians via the exploratory approach rather than theoretical. Therefore, this review is an attempt to suggest a value conceptual model that explains the theoretical linkages existing between marketing efforts, patient and pharmacist and physician decision to prescribe the drugs. The paper follows an inclusive review approach and applies the previous theoretical models of prescribing behaviour to identify the relational factors. More specifically, the report identifies and uses several valuable perspectives such as the ‘persuasion theory - elaboration likelihood model’, the stimuli–response marketing model’, the ‘agency theory’, the theory of planned behaviour,’ and ‘social power theory,’ in developing an innovative conceptual paradigm. Based on the combination of existing methods and previous models, this paper suggests a new conceptual model of the physician decision-making process. This unique model has the potential for use in further research.

  16. Models and theories of prescribing decisions: A review and suggested a new model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohaidin, Zurina

    2017-01-01

    To date, research on the prescribing decisions of physician lacks sound theoretical foundations. In fact, drug prescribing by doctors is a complex phenomenon influenced by various factors. Most of the existing studies in the area of drug prescription explain the process of decision-making by physicians via the exploratory approach rather than theoretical. Therefore, this review is an attempt to suggest a value conceptual model that explains the theoretical linkages existing between marketing efforts, patient and pharmacist and physician decision to prescribe the drugs. The paper follows an inclusive review approach and applies the previous theoretical models of prescribing behaviour to identify the relational factors. More specifically, the report identifies and uses several valuable perspectives such as the ‘persuasion theory - elaboration likelihood model’, the stimuli–response marketing model’, the ‘agency theory’, the theory of planned behaviour,’ and ‘social power theory,’ in developing an innovative conceptual paradigm. Based on the combination of existing methods and previous models, this paper suggests a new conceptual model of the physician decision-making process. This unique model has the potential for use in further research. PMID:28690701

  17. Projective Market Model Approach to AHP Decision-Making

    CERN Document Server

    Szczypinska, Anna

    2007-01-01

    In this paper we describe market in projective geometry language and give definition of a matrix of market rate, which is related to the matrix rate of return and the matrix of judgements in the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). We use these observations to extend the AHP model to projective geometry formalism and generalise it to intransitive case. We give financial interpretations of such generalised model in the Projective Model of Market (PMM) and propose its simplification. The unification of the AHP model and projective aspect of portfolio theory suggests a wide spectrum of new applications such extended model.

  18. Space market model development project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishop, Peter C.

    1987-01-01

    The objectives of the research program, Space Market Model Development Project, (Phase 1) were: (1) to study the need for business information in the commercial development of space; and (2) to propose a design for an information system to meet the identified needs. Three simultaneous research strategies were used in proceeding toward this goal: (1) to describe the space business information which currently exists; (2) to survey government and business representatives on the information they would like to have; and (3) to investigate the feasibility of generating new economical information about the space industry.

  19. Projections from Orbitofrontal Cortex to Anterior Piriform Cortex in the Rat Suggest a Role in Olfactory Information Processing

    OpenAIRE

    ILLIG, KURT R.

    2005-01-01

    The orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) has been characterized as a higher-order, multimodal sensory cortex. Evidence from electrophysiological and behavioral studies in the rat has suggested that OFC plays a role in modulating olfactory guided behavior, and a significant projection to OFC arises from piriform cortex, the traditional primary olfactory cortex. To discern how OFC interacts with primary olfactory structures, the anterograde tracer Phaseolus vulgaris leucoagglutinin was injected into orbi...

  20. W-320 Project thermal modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathyanarayana, K., Fluor Daniel Hanford

    1997-03-18

    This report summarizes the results of thermal analysis performed to provide a technical basis in support of Project W-320 to retrieve by sluicing the sludge in Tank 241-C-106 and to transfer into Tank 241-AY-102. Prior theraml evaluations in support of Project W-320 safety analysis assumed the availability of 2000 to 3000 CFM, as provided by Tank Farm Operations, for tank floor cooling channels from the secondary ventilation system. As this flow availability has no technical basis, a detailed Tank 241-AY-102 secondary ventilation and floor coating channel flow model was developed and analysis was performed. The results of the analysis show that only about 150 cfm flow is in floor cooLing channels. Tank 241-AY-102 thermal evaluation was performed to determine the necessary cooling flow for floor cooling channels using W-030 primary ventilation system for different quantities of Tank 241-C-106 sludge transfer into Tank 241-AY-102. These sludge transfers meet different options for the project along with minimum required modification of the ventilation system. Also the results of analysis for the amount of sludge transfer using the current system is presented. The effect of sludge fluffing factor, heat generation rate and its distribution between supernatant and sludge in Tank 241-AY-102 on the amount of sludge transfer from Tank 241-C-106 were evaluated and the results are discussed. Also transient thermal analysis was performed to estimate the time to reach the steady state. For a 2 feet sludge transfer, about 3 months time will be requirad to reach steady state. Therefore, for the purpose of process control, a detailed transient thermal analysis using GOTH Computer Code will be required to determine transient response of the sludge in Tank 241-AY-102. Process control considerations are also discussed to eliminate the potential for a steam bump during retrieval and storage in Tanks 241-C-106 and 241-AY-102 respectively.

  1. Sharks, Minnows, and Wheelbarrows: Calculus Modeling Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Michael D.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to present two very active applied modeling projects that were successfully implemented in a first semester calculus course at Hollins University. The first project uses a logistic equation to model the spread of a new disease such as swine flu. The second project is a human take on the popular article "Do Dogs Know…

  2. Suggested Model (Related to the Student Portfolio) Used in Evaluation the Students in University Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahasneh, Omar M.; Murad, Odeh S.

    2014-01-01

    This study aimed to develop a suggested model related to the student's portfolio used in evaluating the students in the university courses. After revising the theoretical literature and previous studies, two tools of the study have been constructed: Suggested model related to the student portfolio, and identifying the specifications towards using…

  3. AStructural Model Suggestion About Relationship Between Total Tourism Affect Perceived By Local Residents And Tourism Support

    OpenAIRE

    Ekrem Cengiz; Fazl› Kirkbir

    2007-01-01

    This study attempts to examine the structural effects of four tourism-impact factors on total impact and on local residents’support for tourism development. For this purpose, a model was developed and was tested with structural equation model. Test the model, 6 hypothesis constitude and a questionnary was conducted from 193 local residents in Bodrum. Structural equation model was applied using AMOS 4 and SPSS 13. After the test, suggested model accomodate intermediate and all hypothesis was...

  4. Public Opinion Research as a Basis for Student Learning: A Suggested Teaching Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nickerson, Brian J.

    This paper provides a suggested teaching model enabling students to conduct extensive, hands-on survey research as the basis of part or all of a political science class. The model emphasizes active student learning and development of applied skills. The components of this model can be modified for use in a broad array of undergraduate political…

  5. Modeling Research Project Risks with Fuzzy Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodea, Constanta Nicoleta; Dascalu, Mariana Iuliana

    2009-01-01

    The authors propose a risks evaluation model for research projects. The model is based on fuzzy inference. The knowledge base for fuzzy process is built with a causal and cognitive map of risks. The map was especially developed for research projects, taken into account their typical lifecycle. The model was applied to an e-testing research…

  6. Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating...... investment costs, with a quantitative risk analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation and to make use of a set of exploratory scenarios. The analysis is carried out by using the CBA-DK model representing the Danish standard approach to socio-economic cost-benefit analysis. Specifically, the paper proposes...... to supplement Optimism Bias and the associated Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) technique with a new technique that makes use of a scenario-grid. We tentatively introduce and refer to this as Reference Scenario Forecasting (RSF). The final RSF output from the CBA-DK model consists of a set of scenario...

  7. The Canvas model in project formulation

    OpenAIRE

    Ferreira-Herrera, Diana Carolina

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The aim of this article is to determine the relevance of the Canvas methodology in project formulation through model characterization, thus answering the question: Is the Canvas methodology a relevant model for project management in an entrepreneurial context? Description: The Canvas model seeks to manage projects as business units. It is a model intended for emphasizing the entrepreneurial potential in project management. For this, texts and articles that have provided the basis for...

  8. Is the dissociative adult suggestible? A test of the trauma and fantasy models of dissociation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kluemper, Nicole S; Dalenberg, Constance

    2014-01-01

    Psychologists have long assumed a connection between traumatic experience and psychological dissociation. This hypothesis is referred to as the trauma model of dissociation. In the past decade, a series of papers have been published that question this traditional causal link, proposing an alternative fantasy model of dissociation. In the present research, the relationship among dissociation, suggestibility, and fantasy proneness was examined. Suggestibility was measured through the Gudjonsson Scale of Interrogative Suggestibility (GSS) as well as an autobiographically based version of this measure based on the events of September 11, 2001. Consistent with prior research and with the trauma model, dissociation correlated positively with trauma severity (r = .32, p fantasy proneness (r = .60, p fantasy model, dissociation did not correlate with the neutral form of the GSS and correlated negatively (r = -.24, p fantasy model of dissociation.

  9. A simplified model of software project dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Ruiz Carreira, Mercedes; Ramos Román, Isabel; Toro Bonilla, Miguel

    2001-01-01

    The simulation of a dynamic model for software development projects (hereinafter SDPs) helps to investigate the impact of a technological change, of different management policies, and of maturity level of organisations over the whole project. In the beginning of the 1990s, with the appearance of the dynamic model for SDPs by Abdel-Hamid and Madnick [Software Project Dynamics: An Integrated Approach, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1991], a significant advance took place in the field of p...

  10. Focal relationships and the environment of project marketing. A literature review with suggestions for practitioners and future research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skaates, Maria Anne; Tikkanen, Henrikki

    2000-01-01

    of the review is upon the connection between focal relationships and the wider environment in which project marketing and systems selling takes place. First, several common definitions of projects and project marketing are presented and discussed. Second, the implications of three specific features of project...... business - discontinuity, uniqueness, and complexity - for the focal relationship and the broader marketing environment are considered at the level of multiple projects. Third, three overlapping types of postures that project-selling firms can adopt in relation to their focal relationships...

  11. Cuaderno de Proyectos Manuales Sugeridos para Estudiantes con Impedimentos (Notebook of Manual Projects Suggested for Students with Light and Moderate Disabilities).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puerto Rico State Dept. of Education, Hato Rey. Office of Special Education.

    This notebook is a reference source that lists suggested manual projects that can be completed by students with disabilities. The projects were developed for use with special education students and those in prevocational education. Information is included about materials, hardware, equipment, and safety, with recommendations for each project and…

  12. World energy projection system: Model documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-06-01

    The World Energy Project System (WEPS) is an accounting framework that incorporates projects from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product) and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by hydropower, geothermal, coal, and natural gas to produce projections of world energy consumption published annually by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the International Energy Outlook (IEO) (Figure 1). Two independently documented models presented in Figure 1, the Oil Market Simulation (OMS) model and the World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES) provide projections of oil and nuclear power consumption published in the IEO. Output from a third independently documented model, and the International Coal Trade Model (ICTM), is not published in the IEO but is used in WEPS as a supply check on projections of world coal consumption produced by WEPS and published in the IEO. A WEPS model of natural gas production documented in this report provides the same type of implicit supply check on the WEPS projections of world natural gas consumption published in the IEO. Two additional models are included in Figure 1, the OPEC Capacity model and the Non-OPEC Oil Production model. These WEPS models provide inputs to the OMS model and are documented in this report.

  13. Suggestion of a dynamic model of North China basin-range system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    It is found from preliminary studies that previous basin-range models have difficulties in explaining the formation of the Mesozoic North-China basin-range system. This work suggests a new model-"tectonic thermal erosion" model, which considers the North China basin of Late Mesozoic and its peripheral ranges as a unified system, identifies relationship between upwelling and lateral spreading of the asthenolith with horizontal movement and deformation of the upper crust in the system, clarifies the effects of underplating erosion on the crustal evolution, and tries to establish an earth-dynamic model of the North China Mesozoic basin-range supported by numerical simulation.

  14. GCSS Idealized Cirrus Model Comparison Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starr, David OC.; Benedetti, Angela; Boehm, Matt; Brown, Philip R. A.; Gierens, Klaus; Girard, Eric; Giraud, Vincent; Jakob, Christian; Jensen, Eric; Khvorostyanov, Vitaly; hide

    2000-01-01

    related to the shape of the particle size distribution and the habits of the ice crystal population, whether assumed or explicitly calculated. In order to isolate the fall speed effect from that of the associated ice crystal population, simulations were also performed where ice water fall speed was set to the same constant value everywhere in each model. Values of 20 and 60 cm/s were assumed. Current results of the project will be described and implications will be drawn. In particular, this exercise is found to strongly focus the definition of issues resulting in observed inter-model differences and to suggest possible strategies for observational validation of the models. The next step in this project is to perform similar comparisons for well observed case studies with sufficient high quality data to adequately define model initiation and forcing specifications and to support quantitative validation of the results.

  15. Economic Benefit Assignment in Environmental Cost Allocation: Toward a Suggestion Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Collins C. Ngwakwe

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to suggest a model to reward a ‘dirty product’ whichhas the potential to offer sales promotion services to other ‘clean products’in a multiple product firm. The paper suggests a model – economicbenefit assignment (EBA for apportionment of direct wastecosts where a polluting product offers a sales promotion benefit to other‘clean products’ of the same company, which proposes that benefitingproducts should be assigned a proportion of the direct waste cost ofthe polluting product (as a service charge based on the proportion ofpromotion benefit (sales benefit received from the polluting product.The idea is that, based on transfer pricing theory, such promotion servicewould be paid for, if offered by an outside agent. Whilst academicdebate is expected to ensue from this suggestion model, further caseresearch is imperative to demonstrate industrial applicability.

  16. The sequential propensity household projection model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tom Wilson

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND The standard method of projecting living arrangements and households in Australia and New Zealand is the 'propensity model', a type of extended headship rate model. Unfortunately it possesses a number of serious shortcomings, including internal inconsistencies, difficulties in setting living arrangement assumptions, and very limited scenario creation capabilities. Data allowing the application of more sophisticated dynamic household projection models are unavailable in Australia. OBJECTIVE The aim was create a projection model to overcome these shortcomings whilst minimising input data requirements and costs, and retaining the projection outputs users are familiar with. METHODS The sequential propensity household projection model is proposed. Living arrangement projections take place in a sequence of calculations, with progressively more detailed living arrangement categories calculated in each step. In doing so the model largely overcomes the three serious deficiencies of the standard propensity model noted above. RESULTS The model is illustrated by three scenarios produced for one case study State, Queensland. They are: a baseline scenario in which all propensities are held constant to demonstrate the effects of population growth and ageing, a housing crisis scenario where housing affordability declines, and a prosperity scenario where families and individuals enjoy greater real incomes. A sensitivity analysis in which assumptions are varied one by one is also presented. CONCLUSIONS The sequential propensity model offers a more effective method of producing household and living arrangement projections than the standard propensity model, and is a practical alternative to dynamic projection models for countries and regions where the data and resources to apply such models are unavailable.

  17. Mentoring for junior medical faculty: Existing models and suggestions for low-resource settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menon, Vikas; Muraleedharan, Aparna; Bhat, Ballambhattu Vishnu

    2016-02-01

    Globally, there is increasing recognition about the positive benefits and impact of mentoring on faculty retention rates, career satisfaction and scholarly output. However, emphasis on research and practice of mentoring is comparatively meagre in low and middle income countries. In this commentary, we critically examine two existing models of mentorship for medical faculty and offer few suggestions for an integrated hybrid model that can be adapted for use in low resource settings.

  18. A Model of Project and Organisational Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny Leonard

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The strategic, transformational nature of many information systems projects is now widely understood. Large-scale implementations of systems are known to require significant management of organisational change in order to be successful. Moreover, projects are rarely executed in isolation – most organisations have a large programme of projects being implemented at any one time. However, project and value management methodologies provide ad hoc definitions of the relationship between a project and its environment. This limits the ability of an organisation to manage the larger dynamics between projects and organisations, over time, and between projects. The contribution of this paper, therefore, is to use literature on organisational theory to provide a more systematic understanding of this area. The organisational facilitators required to obtain value from a project are categorised, and the processes required to develop those facilitators are defined. This formalisation facilitates generalisation between projects and highlights any time and path dependencies required in developing organisational facilitators. The model therefore has the potential to contribute to the development of IS project management theory within dynamic organisational contexts. Six cases illustrate how this model could be used.

  19. K3 projective models in scrolls

    CERN Document Server

    Johnsen, Trygve

    2004-01-01

    The exposition studies projective models of K3 surfaces whose hyperplane sections are non-Clifford general curves. These models are contained in rational normal scrolls. The exposition supplements standard descriptions of models of general K3 surfaces in projective spaces of low dimension, and leads to a classification of K3 surfaces in projective spaces of dimension at most 10. The authors bring further the ideas in Saint-Donat's classical article from 1974, lifting results from canonical curves to K3 surfaces and incorporating much of the Brill-Noether theory of curves and theory of syzygies developed in the mean time.

  20. Suggestion for a Theoretical Model for Secondary-Tertiary Transition in Mathematics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Megan; Lovric, Miroslav

    2008-01-01

    One of most notable features of existing body of research in transition seems to be the absence of a theoretical model. The suggestion we present in this paper--to view and understand the high school to university transition in mathematics as a modern-day rite of passage--is an attempt at defining such framework. Although dominantly reflecting…

  1. Teaching mathematical modelling through project work

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blomhøj, Morten; Kjeldsen, Tinne Hoff

    2006-01-01

    are reported in manners suitable for internet publication for colleagues. The reports and the related discussions reveal interesting dilemmas concerning the teaching of mathematical modelling and how to cope with these through “setting the scene” for the students modelling projects and through dialogues...... in their own classes, evaluate and report a project based problem oriented course in mathematical modelling. The in-service course runs over one semester and includes three seminars of 3, 1 and 2 days. Experiences show that the course objectives in general are fulfilled and that the course projects......The paper presents and analyses experiences from developing and running an in-service course in project work and mathematical modelling for mathematics teachers in the Danish gymnasium, e.g. upper secondary level, grade 10-12. The course objective is to support the teachers to develop, try out...

  2. Causal Models for Safety Assurance Technologies Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Fulfillment of NASA's System-Wide Safety and Assurance Technology (SSAT) project at NASA requires leveraging vast amounts of data into actionable knowledge. Models...

  3. Teaching mathematical modelling through project work

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blomhøj, Morten; Kjeldsen, Tinne Hoff

    2006-01-01

    The paper presents and analyses experiences from developing and running an in-service course in project work and mathematical modelling for mathematics teachers in the Danish gymnasium, e.g. upper secondary level, grade 10-12. The course objective is to support the teachers to develop, try out...... in their own classes, evaluate and report a project based problem oriented course in mathematical modelling. The in-service course runs over one semester and includes three seminars of 3, 1 and 2 days. Experiences show that the course objectives in general are fulfilled and that the course projects...... are reported in manners suitable for internet publication for colleagues. The reports and the related discussions reveal interesting dilemmas concerning the teaching of mathematical modelling and how to cope with these through “setting the scene” for the students modelling projects and through dialogues...

  4. Developing Project Duration Models in Software Engineering

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Pierre Bourque; Serge Oligny; Alain Abran; Bertrand Fournier

    2007-01-01

    Based on the empirical analysis of data contained in the International Software Benchmarking Standards Group(ISBSG) repository, this paper presents software engineering project duration models based on project effort. Duration models are built for the entire dataset and for subsets of projects developed for personal computer, mid-range and mainframeplatforms. Duration models are also constructed for projects requiring fewer than 400 person-hours of effort and for projectsre quiring more than 400 person-hours of effort. The usefulness of adding the maximum number of assigned resources as asecond independent variable to explain duration is also analyzed. The opportunity to build duration models directly fromproject functional size in function points is investigated as well.

  5. Custom map projections for regional groundwater models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuniansky, Eve L.

    2017-01-01

    For regional groundwater flow models (areas greater than 100,000 km2), improper choice of map projection parameters can result in model error for boundary conditions dependent on area (recharge or evapotranspiration simulated by application of a rate using cell area from model discretization) and length (rivers simulated with head-dependent flux boundary). Smaller model areas can use local map coordinates, such as State Plane (United States) or Universal Transverse Mercator (correct zone) without introducing large errors. Map projections vary in order to preserve one or more of the following properties: area, shape, distance (length), or direction. Numerous map projections are developed for different purposes as all four properties cannot be preserved simultaneously. Preservation of area and length are most critical for groundwater models. The Albers equal-area conic projection with custom standard parallels, selected by dividing the length north to south by 6 and selecting standard parallels 1/6th above or below the southern and northern extent, preserves both area and length for continental areas in mid latitudes oriented east-west. Custom map projection parameters can also minimize area and length error in non-ideal projections. Additionally, one must also use consistent vertical and horizontal datums for all geographic data. The generalized polygon for the Floridan aquifer system study area (306,247.59 km2) is used to provide quantitative examples of the effect of map projections on length and area with different projections and parameter choices. Use of improper map projection is one model construction problem easily avoided.

  6. A trophic model of fringing coral reefs in Nanwan Bay, southern Taiwan suggests overfishing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Pi-Jen; Shao, Kwang-Tsao; Jan, Rong-Quen; Fan, Tung-Yung; Wong, Saou-Lien; Hwang, Jiang-Shiou; Chen, Jen-Ping; Chen, Chung-Chi; Lin, Hsing-Juh

    2009-09-01

    Several coral reefs of Nanwan Bay, Taiwan have recently undergone shifts to macroalgal or sea anemone dominance. Thus, a mass-balance trophic model was constructed to analyze the structure and functioning of the food web. The fringing reef model was comprised of 18 compartments, with the highest trophic level of 3.45 for piscivorous fish. Comparative analyses with other reef models demonstrated that Nanwan Bay was similar to reefs with high fishery catches. While coral biomass was not lower, fish biomass was lower than those of reefs with high catches. Consequently, the sums of consumption and respiratory flows and total system throughput were also decreased. The Nanwan Bay model potentially suggests an overfished status in which the mean trophic level of the catch, matter cycling, and trophic transfer efficiency are extremely reduced.

  7. A Study on the Relationship between Organizational Culture and Organizational Performance and a Model Suggestion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ebru Yildiz

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Organizational culture is defined as set of goals and values shared by employees in the organization. Recently it has also come to be perceived as a resource of knowledge in the organization. In the literature, along with the studies aiming at identifying the elements of organizational culture, there are some research that study the relationship between organizational culture and performance. This article is a theoretical study of the two concepts and suggests a research model for further research. Recently, knowledge management and innovation strategy have started to be regarded as features of organizational culture. Research shows that these two variables also have significant impacts on organizational performance. Our model suggests measuring the effect of organizational culture on performance along with the supportive impacts of knowledge management and innovation strategy.

  8. EXPENSES FORECASTING MODEL IN UNIVERSITY PROJECTS PLANNING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergei A. Arustamov

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with mathematical model presentation of cash flows in project funding. We describe different types of expenses linked to university project activities. Problems of project budgeting that contribute most uncertainty have been revealed. As an example of the model implementation we consider calculation of vacation allowance expenses for project participants. We define problems of forecast for funds reservation: calculation based on methodology established by the Ministry of Education and Science calculation according to the vacation schedule and prediction of the most probable amount. A stochastic model for vacation allowance expenses has been developed. We have proposed methods and solution of the problems that increase the accuracy of forecasting for funds reservation based on 2015 data.

  9. Model selection approach suggests causal association between 25-hydroxyvitamin D and colorectal cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lina Zgaga

    Full Text Available Vitamin D deficiency has been associated with increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC, but causal relationship has not yet been confirmed. We investigate the direction of causation between vitamin D and CRC by extending the conventional approaches to allow pleiotropic relationships and by explicitly modelling unmeasured confounders.Plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-OHD, genetic variants associated with 25-OHD and CRC, and other relevant information was available for 2645 individuals (1057 CRC cases and 1588 controls and included in the model. We investigate whether 25-OHD is likely to be causally associated with CRC, or vice versa, by selecting the best modelling hypothesis according to Bayesian predictive scores. We examine consistency for a range of prior assumptions.Model comparison showed preference for the causal association between low 25-OHD and CRC over the reverse causal hypothesis. This was confirmed for posterior mean deviances obtained for both models (11.5 natural log units in favour of the causal model, and also for deviance information criteria (DIC computed for a range of prior distributions. Overall, models ignoring hidden confounding or pleiotropy had significantly poorer DIC scores.Results suggest causal association between 25-OHD and colorectal cancer, and support the need for randomised clinical trials for further confirmations.

  10. Base Flow Model Validation Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The program focuses on turbulence modeling enhancements for predicting high-speed rocket base flows. A key component of the effort is the collection of high-fidelity...

  11. Marshal: Maintaining Evolving Models Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — SIFT proposes to design and develop the Marshal system, a mixed-initiative tool for maintaining task models over the course of evolving missions. Marshal-enabled...

  12. Advanced Spacecraft Thermal Modeling Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — For spacecraft developers who spend millions to billions of dollars per unit and require 3 to 7 years to deploy, the LoadPath reduced-order (RO) modeling thermal...

  13. Base Flow Model Validation Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The innovation is the systematic "building-block" validation of CFD/turbulence models employing a GUI driven CFD code (RPFM) and existing as well as new data sets to...

  14. Authority Delegation in Boyerahmad Health Centers through Model to Combine Suggestions System and Delphi Method 2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Momeninezhad

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Background & aim: Authority delegation means to transmit part of organization`s manager and leader`s special authorities and executive duties, regardless its root to subordinates and heads of units and related offices to speed up implementing affairs and organizational purposes quickly and on time. The purpose of this study was to inspect authority delegation in health centers of Boyerahmad district through using model to combine suggestions (to identify process and Delphi method (expert`s opinions . Methods: This cross-sectional study was implemented in two stages at first stage, research community was authorities of Boyerahmad health centers (58 persons, their suggestions about requested processes to delegate were gathered by total count through open questionnaires and in second stage, which was Delphi, suggestions gathered from previous stage judged by 30 experts. Data of both stages analyzed by help of Chi-square, correlation coefficient tests. Results: Findings showed that 73.85% of suggestions were able to be delegated, based on expert`s opinion. 40% of suggestions were in domain of official, 36.92% financial and 23.08% hygienic. 88% less than 6 years management background. 20.69% had no academic studies and only 27% were general physicians. Conclusion: By participation of environmental management levels, several processes may be specified and identify cases which are possible to delegate them executively using Delphi (expert`s opinion and this model can be used as a trust worthy method to delegate authority for decentralization. Key words: Participation Management, Health centers, Authority delegation

  15. Model county ordinance for wind projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bain, D.A. [Oregon Office of Energy, Portland, OR (United States)

    1997-12-31

    Permitting is a crucial step in the development cycle of a wind project and permits affect the timing, cost, location, feasibility, layout, and impacts of wind projects. Counties often have the lead responsibility for permitting yet few have appropriate siting regulations for wind projects. A model ordinance allows a county to quickly adopt appropriate permitting procedures. The model county wind ordinance developed for use by northwest states is generally applicable across the country and counties seeking to adopt siting or zoning regulations for wind will find it a good starting place. The model includes permitting procedures for wind measurement devices and two types of wind systems. Both discretionary and nondiscretionary standards apply to wind systems and a conditional use permit would be issued. The standards, criteria, conditions for approval, and process procedures are defined for each. Adaptation examples for the four northwest states are provided along with a model Wind Resource Overlay Zone.

  16. A computational model of the LGI1 protein suggests a common binding site for ADAM proteins.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emanuela Leonardi

    Full Text Available Mutations of human leucine-rich glioma inactivated (LGI1 gene encoding the epitempin protein cause autosomal dominant temporal lateral epilepsy (ADTLE, a rare familial partial epileptic syndrome. The LGI1 gene seems to have a role on the transmission of neuronal messages but the exact molecular mechanism remains unclear. In contrast to other genes involved in epileptic disorders, epitempin shows no homology with known ion channel genes but contains two domains, composed of repeated structural units, known to mediate protein-protein interactions.A three dimensional in silico model of the two epitempin domains was built to predict the structure-function relationship and propose a functional model integrating previous experimental findings. Conserved and electrostatic charged regions of the model surface suggest a possible arrangement between the two domains and identifies a possible ADAM protein binding site in the β-propeller domain and another protein binding site in the leucine-rich repeat domain. The functional model indicates that epitempin could mediate the interaction between proteins localized to different synaptic sides in a static way, by forming a dimer, or in a dynamic way, by binding proteins at different times.The model was also used to predict effects of known disease-causing missense mutations. Most of the variants are predicted to alter protein folding while several other map to functional surface regions. In agreement with experimental evidence, this suggests that non-secreted LGI1 mutants could be retained within the cell by quality control mechanisms or by altering interactions required for the secretion process.

  17. Suggestion for a theoretical model for secondary-tertiary transition in mathematics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Megan; Lovric, Miroslav

    2008-09-01

    One of most notable features of existing body of research in transition seems to be the absence of a theoretical model. The suggestion we present in this paper—to view and understand the high school to university transition in mathematics as a modern-day rite of passage—is an attempt at defining such framework. Although dominantly reflecting North-American reality, we believe that the model could be found useful in other countries as well. Let us emphasize that our model is not new in the sense that it recognizes the transition as such. In this paper, we try to determine whether (and, if so, how) the notion of a rite of passage—which is a well-understood concept in anthropology, as well as in some other disciplines (e.g. culture shock in cultural studies)—can help us understand mathematics transition issues better. Can it help us systematize existing body of research, and enhance our understanding of transition in mathematics; does it point at something new? We believe so, and by elaborating some traditional aspects of rites of passage, we hope to provide a useful lens through which we can examine the process of transition in mathematics, and make suggestions for improved management of some transitional issues.

  18. Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling and Projection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qian, Yun; Jackson, Charles; Giorgi, Filippo; Booth, Ben; Duan, Qingyun; Forest, Chris; Higdon, Dave; Hou, Z. Jason; Huerta, Gabriel

    2016-05-01

    The projection of future climate is one of the most complex problems undertaken by the scientific community. Although scientists have been striving to better understand the physical basis of the climate system and to improve climate models, the overall uncertainty in projections of future climate has not been significantly reduced (e.g., from the IPCC AR4 to AR5). With the rapid increase of complexity in Earth system models, reducing uncertainties in climate projections becomes extremely challenging. Since uncertainties always exist in climate models, interpreting the strengths and limitations of future climate projections is key to evaluating risks, and climate change information for use in Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation (VIA) studies should be provided with both well-characterized and well-quantified uncertainty. The workshop aimed at providing participants, many of them from developing countries, information on strategies to quantify the uncertainty in climate model projections and assess the reliability of climate change information for decision-making. The program included a mixture of lectures on fundamental concepts in Bayesian inference and sampling, applications, and hands-on computer laboratory exercises employing software packages for Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, and global sensitivity analyses. The lectures covered a range of scientific issues underlying the evaluation of uncertainties in climate projections, such as the effects of uncertain initial and boundary conditions, uncertain physics, and limitations of observational records. Progress in quantitatively estimating uncertainties in hydrologic, land surface, and atmospheric models at both regional and global scales was also reviewed. The application of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) concepts to coupled climate system models is still in its infancy. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) multi-model ensemble currently represents the primary data for

  19. SR 97. Alternative models project. Stochastic continuum modelling of Aberg

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Widen, H. [Kemakta AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Walker, D. [INTERA KB/DE and S (Sweden)

    1999-08-01

    As part of studies into the siting of a deep repository for nuclear waste, Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has commissioned the Alternative Models Project (AMP). The AMP is a comparison of three alternative modelling approaches to bedrock performance assessment for a single hypothetical repository, arbitrarily named Aberg. The Aberg repository will adopt input parameters from the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory in southern Sweden. The models are restricted to an explicit domain, boundary conditions and canister location to facilitate the comparison. The boundary conditions are based on the regional groundwater model provided in digital format. This study is the application of HYDRASTAR, a stochastic continuum groundwater flow and transport-modelling program. The study uses 34 realisations of 945 canister locations in the hypothetical repository to evaluate the uncertainty of the advective travel time, canister flux (Darcy velocity at a canister) and F-ratio. Several comparisons of variability are constructed between individual canister locations and individual realisations. For the ensemble of all realisations with all canister locations, the study found a median travel time of 27 years, a median canister flux of 7.1 x 10{sup -4} m/yr and a median F-ratio of 3.3 x 10{sup 5} yr/m. The overall pattern of regional flow is preserved in the site-scale model, as is reflected in flow paths and exit locations. The site-scale model slightly over-predicts the boundary fluxes from the single realisation of the regional model. The explicitly prescribed domain was seen to be slightly restrictive, with 6% of the stream tubes failing to exit the upper surface of the model. Sensitivity analysis and calibration are suggested as possible extensions of the modelling study.

  20. Atmospheric CO2 observations and models suggest strong carbon uptake by forests in New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinkamp, Kay; Mikaloff Fletcher, Sara E.; Brailsford, Gordon; Smale, Dan; Moore, Stuart; Keller, Elizabeth D.; Baisden, W. Troy; Mukai, Hitoshi; Stephens, Britton B.

    2017-01-01

    A regional atmospheric inversion method has been developed to determine the spatial and temporal distribution of CO2 sinks and sources across New Zealand for 2011-2013. This approach infers net air-sea and air-land CO2 fluxes from measurement records, using back-trajectory simulations from the Numerical Atmospheric dispersion Modelling Environment (NAME) Lagrangian dispersion model, driven by meteorology from the New Zealand Limited Area Model (NZLAM) weather prediction model. The inversion uses in situ measurements from two fixed sites, Baring Head on the southern tip of New Zealand's North Island (41.408° S, 174.871° E) and Lauder from the central South Island (45.038° S, 169.684° E), and ship board data from monthly cruises between Japan, New Zealand, and Australia. A range of scenarios is used to assess the sensitivity of the inversion method to underlying assumptions and to ensure robustness of the results. The results indicate a strong seasonal cycle in terrestrial land fluxes from the South Island of New Zealand, especially in western regions covered by indigenous forest, suggesting higher photosynthetic and respiratory activity than is evident in the current a priori land process model. On the annual scale, the terrestrial biosphere in New Zealand is estimated to be a net CO2 sink, removing 98 (±37) Tg CO2 yr-1 from the atmosphere on average during 2011-2013. This sink is much larger than the reported 27 Tg CO2 yr-1 from the national inventory for the same time period. The difference can be partially reconciled when factors related to forest and agricultural management and exports, fossil fuel emission estimates, hydrologic fluxes, and soil carbon change are considered, but some differences are likely to remain. Baseline uncertainty, model transport uncertainty, and limited sensitivity to the northern half of the North Island are the main contributors to flux uncertainty.

  1. POMP - Pervasive Object Model Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schougaard, Kari Rye; Schultz, Ulrik Pagh

    applications, we consider it essential that a standard object-oriented style of programming can be used for those parts of the application that do not concern its mobility. This position paper describes an ongoing effort to implement a language and a virtual machine for applications that execute in a pervasive...... mobility. Mobile agent platforms are often based on such virtual machines, but typically do not provide strong mobility (the ability to migrate at any program point), and have limited support for multi-threaded applications, although there are exceptions. For a virtual machine to support mobile...... computing environment. This system, named POM (Pervasive Object Model), supports applications split into coarse-grained, strongly mobile units that communicate using method invocations through proxies. We are currently investigating efficient execution of mobile applications, scalability to suit...

  2. World Energy Projection System model documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hutzler, M.J.; Anderson, A.T.

    1997-09-01

    The World Energy Projection System (WEPS) was developed by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting within the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the independent statistical and analytical agency of the US Department of Energy. WEPS is an integrated set of personal computer based spreadsheets containing data compilations, assumption specifications, descriptive analysis procedures, and projection models. The WEPS accounting framework incorporates projections from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product GDP), and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by natural gas, coal, and renewable energy sources (hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, wind, biomass, and other renewable resources). Projections produced by WEPS are published in the annual report, International Energy Outlook. This report documents the structure and procedures incorporated in the 1998 version of the WEPS model. It has been written to provide an overview of the structure of the system and technical details about the operation of each component of the model for persons who wish to know how WEPS projections are produced by EIA.

  3. Proposed best practice for projects that involve modelling and simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Kelly, Michael; Anisimov, Vladimir; Campbell, Chris; Hamilton, Sinéad

    2017-03-01

    Modelling and simulation has been used in many ways when developing new treatments. To be useful and credible, it is generally agreed that modelling and simulation should be undertaken according to some kind of best practice. A number of authors have suggested elements required for best practice in modelling and simulation. Elements that have been suggested include the pre-specification of goals, assumptions, methods, and outputs. However, a project that involves modelling and simulation could be simple or complex and could be of relatively low or high importance to the project. It has been argued that the level of detail and the strictness of pre-specification should be allowed to vary, depending on the complexity and importance of the project. This best practice document does not prescribe how to develop a statistical model. Rather, it describes the elements required for the specification of a project and requires that the practitioner justify in the specification the omission of any of the elements and, in addition, justify the level of detail provided about each element. This document is an initiative of the Special Interest Group for modelling and simulation. The Special Interest Group for modelling and simulation is a body open to members of Statisticians in the Pharmaceutical Industry and the European Federation of Statisticians in the Pharmaceutical Industry. Examples of a very detailed specification and a less detailed specification are included as appendices. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. Leaf Area Index in Earth System Models: evaluation and projections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Mahowald

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The amount of leaves in a plant canopy (measured as leaf area index, LAI modulates key land–atmosphere interactions, including the exchange of energy, moisture, carbon dioxide (CO2, and other trace gases, and is therefore an essential variable in predicting terrestrial carbon, water, and energy fluxes. The latest generation of Earth system models (ESMs simulate LAI, as well as provide projections of LAI in the future to improve simulations of biophysical and biogeochemical processes, and for use in climate impact studies. Here we use satellite measurements of LAI to answer the following questions: (1 are the models accurately simulating the mean LAI spatial distribution? (2 Are the models accurately simulating the seasonal cycle in LAI? (3 Are the models correctly simulating the processes driving interannual variability in the current climate? And finally based on this analysis, (4 can we reduce the uncertainty in future projections of LAI by using each model's skill in the current climate? Overall, models are able to capture some of the main characteristics of the LAI mean and seasonal cycle, but all of the models can be improved in one or more regions. Comparison of the modeled and observed interannual variability in the current climate suggested that in high latitudes the models may overpredict increases in LAI based on warming temperature, while in the tropics the models may overpredict the negative impacts of warming temperature on LAI. We expect, however, larger uncertainties in observational estimates of interannual LAI compared to estimates of seasonal or mean LAI. Future projections of LAI by the ESMs are largely optimistic, with only limited regions seeing reductions in LAI. Future projections of LAI in the models are quite different, and are sensitive to climate model projections of precipitation. They also strongly depend on the amount of carbon dioxide fertilization in high latitudes. Based on comparisons between model simulated

  5. Model suggests potential for Porites coral population recovery after removal of anthropogenic disturbance (Luhuitou, Hainan, South China Sea)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Meixia; Riegl, Bernhard; Yu, Kefu; Shi, Qi; Zhang, Qiaomin; Liu, Guohui; Yang, Hongqiang; Yan, Hongqiang

    2016-09-01

    Population models are important for resource management and can inform about potential trajectories useful for planning purposes, even with incomplete monitoring data. From size frequency data on Luhuitou fringing reef, Hainan, South China Sea, a matrix population model of massive corals (Porites lutea) was developed and trajectories over 100 years under no disturbance and random disturbances were projected. The model reflects a largely open population of Porites lutea, with low local recruitment and preponderance of imported recruitment. Under no further disturbance, the population of Porites lutea will grow and its size structure will change from predominance of small size classes to large size classes. Therewith, total Porites cover will increase. Even under random disturbances every 10 to 20 years, the Porites population could remain viable, albeit at lower space cover. The models suggest recovery at Luhuitou following the removal of chronic anthropogenic disturbance. Extending the area of coral reef reserves to protect the open coral community and the path of connectivity is advisable and imperative for the conservation of Hainan’s coral reefs.

  6. Modeling of glycerol-3-phosphate transporter suggests a potential 'tilt' mechanism involved in its function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsigelny, Igor F; Greenberg, Jerry; Kouznetsova, Valentina; Nigam, Sanjay K

    2008-10-01

    Many major facilitator superfamily (MFS) transporters have similar 12-transmembrane alpha-helical topologies with two six-helix halves connected by a long loop. In humans, these transporters participate in key physiological processes and are also, as in the case of members of the organic anion transporter (OAT) family, of pharmaceutical interest. Recently, crystal structures of two bacterial representatives of the MFS family--the glycerol-3-phosphate transporter (GlpT) and lac-permease (LacY)--have been solved and, because of assumptions regarding the high structural conservation of this family, there is hope that the results can be applied to mammalian transporters as well. Based on crystallography, it has been suggested that a major conformational "switching" mechanism accounts for ligand transport by MFS proteins. This conformational switch would then allow periodic changes in the overall transporter configuration, resulting in its cyclic opening to the periplasm or cytoplasm. Following this lead, we have modeled a possible "switch" mechanism in GlpT, using the concept of rotation of protein domains as in the DynDom program17 and membranephilic constraints predicted by the MAPAS program.(23) We found that the minima of energies of intersubunit interactions support two alternate positions consistent with their transport properties. Thus, for GlpT, a "tilt" of 9 degrees -10 degrees rotation had the most favorable energetics of electrostatic interaction between the two halves of the transporter; moreover, this confirmation was sufficient to suggest transport of the ligand across the membrane. We conducted steered molecular dynamics simulations of the GlpT-ligand system to explore how glycerol-3-phosphate would be handled by the "tilted" structure, and obtained results generally consistent with experimental mutagenesis data. While biochemical data remain most consistent with a single-site alternating access model, our results raise the possibility that, while the

  7. PROJECT ACTIVITY ANALYSIS WITHOUT THE NETWORK MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Munapo

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This paper presents a new procedure for analysing and managing activity sequences in projects. The new procedure determines critical activities, critical path, start times, free floats, crash limits, and other useful information without the use of the network model. Even though network models have been successfully used in project management so far, there are weaknesses associated with the use. A network is not easy to generate, and dummies that are usually associated with it make the network diagram complex – and dummy activities have no meaning in the original project management problem. The network model for projects can be avoided while still obtaining all the useful information that is required for project management. What are required are the activities, their accurate durations, and their predecessors.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die navorsing beskryf ’n nuwerwetse metode vir die ontleding en bestuur van die sekwensiële aktiwiteite van projekte. Die voorgestelde metode bepaal kritiese aktiwiteite, die kritieke pad, aanvangstye, speling, verhasing, en ander groothede sonder die gebruik van ’n netwerkmodel. Die metode funksioneer bevredigend in die praktyk, en omseil die administratiewe rompslomp van die tradisionele netwerkmodelle.

  8. Unsaturated Zone Flow Model Expert Elicitation Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coppersmith, K. J.

    1997-05-30

    This report presents results of the Unsaturated Zone Flow Model Expert Elicitation (UZFMEE) project at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. This project was sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) and managed by Geomatrix Consultants, Inc. (Geomatrix), for TRW Environmental Safety Systems, Inc. The objective of this project was to identify and assess the uncertainties associated with certain key components of the unsaturated zone flow system at Yucca Mountain. This assessment reviewed the data inputs, modeling approaches, and results of the unsaturated zone flow model (termed the ''UZ site-scale model'') being developed by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and the US Geological Survey (USGS). In addition to data input and modeling issues, the assessment focused on percolation flux (volumetric flow rate per unit cross-sectional area) at the potential repository horizon. An understanding of unsaturated zone processes is critical to evaluating the performance of the potential high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. A major goal of the project was to capture the uncertainties involved in assessing the unsaturated flow processes, including uncertainty in both the models used to represent physical controls on unsaturated zone flow and the parameter values used in the models. To ensure that the analysis included a wide range of perspectives, multiple individual judgments were elicited from members of an expert panel. The panel members, who were experts from within and outside the Yucca Mountain project, represented a range of experience and expertise. A deliberate process was followed in facilitating interactions among the experts, in training them to express their uncertainties, and in eliciting their interpretations. The resulting assessments and probability distributions, therefore, provide a reasonable aggregate representation of the knowledge and uncertainties about key issues regarding the unsaturated zone at the Yucca

  9. Mathematical modeling of sustainable synaptogenesis by repetitive stimuli suggests signaling mechanisms in vivo.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiromu Takizawa

    Full Text Available The mechanisms of long-term synaptic maintenance are a key component to understanding the mechanism of long-term memory. From biological experiments, a hypothesis arose that repetitive stimuli with appropriate intervals are essential to maintain new synapses for periods of longer than a few days. We successfully reproduce the time-course of relative numbers of synapses with our mathematical model in the same conditions as biological experiments, which used Adenosine-3', 5'-cyclic monophosphorothioate, Sp-isomer (Sp-cAMPS as external stimuli. We also reproduce synaptic maintenance responsiveness to intervals of Sp-cAMPS treatment accompanied by PKA activation. The model suggests a possible mechanism of sustainable synaptogenesis which consists of two steps. First, the signal transduction from an external stimulus triggers the synthesis of a new signaling protein. Second, the new signaling protein is required for the next signal transduction with the same stimuli. As a result, the network component is modified from the first network, and a different signal is transferred which triggers the synthesis of another new signaling molecule. We refer to this hypothetical mechanism as network succession. We build our model on the basis of two hypotheses: (1 a multi-step network succession induces downregulation of SSH and COFILIN gene expression, which triggers the production of stable F-actin; (2 the formation of a complex of stable F-actin with Drebrin at PSD is the critical mechanism to achieve long-term synaptic maintenance. Our simulation shows that a three-step network succession is sufficient to reproduce sustainable synapses for a period longer than 14 days. When we change the network structure to a single step network, the model fails to follow the exact condition of repetitive signals to reproduce a sufficient number of synapses. Another advantage of the three-step network succession is that this system indicates a greater tolerance of parameter

  10. A simple neural network model of the hippocampus suggesting its pathfinding role in episodic memory retrieval.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samsonovich, Alexei V; Ascoli, Giorgio A

    2005-01-01

    The goal of this work is to extend the theoretical understanding of the relationship between hippocampal spatial and memory functions to the level of neurophysiological mechanisms underlying spatial navigation and episodic memory retrieval. The proposed unifying theory describes both phenomena within a unique framework, as based on one and the same pathfinding function of the hippocampus. We propose a mechanism of reconstruction of the context of experience involving a search for a nearly shortest path in the space of remembered contexts. To analyze this concept in detail, we define a simple connectionist model consistent with available rodent and human neurophysiological data. Numerical study of the model begins with the spatial domain as a simple analogy for more complex phenomena. It is demonstrated how a nearly shortest path is quickly found in a familiar environment. We prove numerically that associative learning during sharp waves can account for the necessary properties of hippocampal place cells. Computational study of the model is extended to other cognitive paradigms, with the main focus on episodic memory retrieval. We show that the ability to find a correct path may be vital for successful retrieval. The model robustly exhibits the pathfinding capacity within a wide range of several factors, including its memory load (up to 30,000 abstract contexts), the number of episodes that become associated with potential target contexts, and the level of dynamical noise. We offer several testable critical predictions in both spatial and memory domains to validate the theory. Our results suggest that (1) the pathfinding function of the hippocampus, in addition to its associative and memory indexing functions, may be vital for retrieval of certain episodic memories, and (2) the hippocampal spatial navigation function could be a precursor of its memory function.

  11. Suggested guidelines for the provision and assessment of orthodontic education in Europe. A report from the Professional Development Group of the EURO-QUAL BIOMED II Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eaton, K A; Adamidis, J P; McDonald, J P; Seeholzer, H; Sieminska-Piekarczyk, B

    2000-12-01

    The suggested guidelines for the provision and assessment of Orthodontic education in Europe, which are introduced, set out, and discussed in this paper, resulted from the work of the Professional Development Group (PDG) of the EURO-QUAL BIOMED II project. They were published in the final report of the project, after comments had been received from a range of national and European bodies and societies, including the British and the European Orthodontic Societies, Royal Colleges, and the General Dental Council.

  12. A suggested computer-based model for using Nasreddin Hodja’s anecdotes in preschool education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdulkadir Kabadayı

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Researchers have been manipulating the technology in education as well as in other fields and investigating the most effective ways of using it in the classroom. Therefore, they try to present any material which has an affect on the learners’ development, by integrating technological devices in the classroom atmosphere. Being aware of the fact that 70 percent of the children’s mental, language and cognitive domains have developed during preschool education, pedagogues are quite sensitive to preschool education and are in search for taking necessary precautions to enable them cognitive, psycho-motor and affective domains in the community. It is clear that preschool children are quite interested in the cartoons and motivated to perceive the world via cartoons on TV. Taking the point into consideration, in this article, a technology-based model is suggested by explaining the methods and techniques of use of the Nasreddin Hodja’s anecdotes as educational equipments in virtual atmosphere. In this model, it is explained how the Nasreddin Hodja’s anecdotes will develop students’ cognitive, affective and psycho-motor domains effectively displaying grade by grade illustration.

  13. A suggested computer-based model for using Nasreddin Hodja’s anecdotes in preschool education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdulkadir Kabadayı

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Researchers have been manipulating the technology in education as well as in other fields and investigating the most effective ways of using it in the classroom. Therefore, they try to present any material which has an affect on the learners’ development, by integrating technological devices in the classroom atmosphere. Being aware of the fact that 70 percent of the children’s mental, language and cognitive domains have developed during preschool education, pedagogues are quite sensitive to preschool education and are in search for taking necessary precautions to enable them cognitive, psycho-motor and affective domains in the community. It is clear that preschool children are quite interested in the cartoons and motivated to perceive the world via cartoons on TV. Taking the point into consideration, in this article, a technology-based model is suggested by explaining the methods and techniques of use of the Nasreddin Hodja’s anecdotes as educational equipments in virtual atmosphere. In this model, it is explained how the Nasreddin Hodja’s anecdotes will develop students’ cognitive, affective and psycho-motor domains effectively displaying grade by grade illustration.

  14. Stabilizing a Bicycle: A Modeling Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pennings, Timothy J.; Williams, Blair R.

    2010-01-01

    This article is a project that takes students through the process of forming a mathematical model of bicycle dynamics. Beginning with basic ideas from Newtonian mechanics (forces and torques), students use techniques from calculus and differential equations to develop the equations of rotational motion for a bicycle-rider system as it tips from…

  15. A cervid vocal fold model suggests greater glottal efficiency in calling at high frequencies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingo R Titze

    Full Text Available Male Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni produce loud and high fundamental frequency bugles during the mating season, in contrast to the male European Red Deer (Cervus elaphus scoticus who produces loud and low fundamental frequency roaring calls. A critical step in understanding vocal communication is to relate sound complexity to anatomy and physiology in a causal manner. Experimentation at the sound source, often difficult in vivo in mammals, is simulated here by a finite element model of the larynx and a wave propagation model of the vocal tract, both based on the morphology and biomechanics of the elk. The model can produce a wide range of fundamental frequencies. Low fundamental frequencies require low vocal fold strain, but large lung pressure and large glottal flow if sound intensity level is to exceed 70 dB at 10 m distance. A high-frequency bugle requires both large muscular effort (to strain the vocal ligament and high lung pressure (to overcome phonation threshold pressure, but at least 10 dB more intensity level can be achieved. Glottal efficiency, the ration of radiated sound power to aerodynamic power at the glottis, is higher in elk, suggesting an advantage of high-pitched signaling. This advantage is based on two aspects; first, the lower airflow required for aerodynamic power and, second, an acoustic radiation advantage at higher frequencies. Both signal types are used by the respective males during the mating season and probably serve as honest signals. The two signal types relate differently to physical qualities of the sender. The low-frequency sound (Red Deer call relates to overall body size via a strong relationship between acoustic parameters and the size of vocal organs and body size. The high-frequency bugle may signal muscular strength and endurance, via a 'vocalizing at the edge' mechanism, for which efficiency is critical.

  16. Projected increase in total knee arthroplasty in the United States - an alternative projection model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inacio, M C S; Paxton, E W; Graves, S E; Namba, R S; Nemes, S

    2017-08-08

    The purpose of our study was to estimate the future incidence rate (IR) and volume of primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA) in the United States from 2015 to 2050 using a conservative projection model that assumes a maximum IR of procedures. Furthermore, our study compared these projections to a model assuming exponential growth, as done in previous studies, for illustrative purposes. A population based epidemiological study was conducted using data from US National Inpatient Sample (NIS) and Census Bureau. Primary TKA procedures performed between 1993 and 2012 were identified. The IR, 95% confidence intervals (CI), or prediction intervals (PI) of TKA per 100,000 US citizens over the age of 40 years were calculated. The estimated IR was used as the outcome of a regression modelling with a logistic regression (i.e., conservative model) and Poisson regression equation (i.e., exponential growth model). Logistic regression modelling suggests the IR of TKA is expected to increase 69% by 2050 compared to 2012, from 429 (95%CI 374-453) procedures/100,000 in 2012 to 725 (95%PI 121-1041) in 2050. This translates into a 143% projected increase in TKA volume. Using the Poisson model, the IR in 2050 was projected to increase 565%, to 2854 (95%CI 2278-4004) procedures/100,000 IR, which is an 855% projected increase in volume compared to 2012. Even after using a conservative projection approach, the number of TKAs in the US, which already has the highest IR of knee arthroplasty in the world, is expected to increase 143% by 2050. Copyright © 2017 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Project management system model development and experimental research

    OpenAIRE

    Golubeva, Viktorija

    2006-01-01

    Project management is the application of knowledge, skills, tools and techniques to project activities to meet project requirements. Project Management Information System is tightly connected with organizational structure and particularity of executed projects. However the main objective of this research was to identify project management model that would be universal, helpful and easily used with small and medium projects In analysis phase we reviewed different methodologies, project ...

  18. Recurrent rearrangement during adaptive evolution in an interspecific yeast hybrid suggests a model for rapid introgression.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara Dunn

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Genome rearrangements are associated with eukaryotic evolutionary processes ranging from tumorigenesis to speciation. Rearrangements are especially common following interspecific hybridization, and some of these could be expected to have strong selective value. To test this expectation we created de novo interspecific yeast hybrids between two diverged but largely syntenic Saccharomyces species, S. cerevisiae and S. uvarum, then experimentally evolved them under continuous ammonium limitation. We discovered that a characteristic interspecific genome rearrangement arose multiple times in independently evolved populations. We uncovered nine different breakpoints, all occurring in a narrow ~1-kb region of chromosome 14, and all producing an "interspecific fusion junction" within the MEP2 gene coding sequence, such that the 5' portion derives from S. cerevisiae and the 3' portion derives from S. uvarum. In most cases the rearrangements altered both chromosomes, resulting in what can be considered to be an introgression of a several-kb region of S. uvarum into an otherwise intact S. cerevisiae chromosome 14, while the homeologous S. uvarum chromosome 14 experienced an interspecific reciprocal translocation at the same breakpoint within MEP2, yielding a chimaeric chromosome; these events result in the presence in the cell of two MEP2 fusion genes having identical breakpoints. Given that MEP2 encodes for a high-affinity ammonium permease, that MEP2 fusion genes arise repeatedly under ammonium-limitation, and that three independent evolved isolates carrying MEP2 fusion genes are each more fit than their common ancestor, the novel MEP2 fusion genes are very likely adaptive under ammonium limitation. Our results suggest that, when homoploid hybrids form, the admixture of two genomes enables swift and otherwise unavailable evolutionary innovations. Furthermore, the architecture of the MEP2 rearrangement suggests a model for rapid introgression, a

  19. Subglacial Hydrology Model Intercomparison Project (SHMIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werder, Mauro A.; de Fleurian, Basile; Creyts, Timothy T.; Damsgaard, Anders; Delaney, Ian; Dow, Christine F.; Gagliardini, Olivier; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Seguinot, Julien; Sommers, Aleah; Irarrazaval Bustos, Inigo; Downs, Jakob

    2017-04-01

    The SHMIP project is the first intercomparison project of subglacial drainage models (http://shmip.bitbucket.org). Its synthetic test suites and evaluation were designed such that any subglacial hydrology model producing effective pressure can participate. In contrast to ice deformation, the physical processes of subglacial hydrology (which in turn impacts basal sliding of glaciers) are poorly known. A further complication is that different glacial and geological settings can lead to different drainage physics. The aim of the project is therefore to qualitatively compare the outputs of the participating models for a wide range of water forcings and glacier geometries. This will allow to put existing studies, which use different drainage models, into context and will allow new studies to select the most suitable model for the problem at hand. We present the results from the just completed intercomparison exercise. Twelve models participated: eight 2D and four 1D models; nine include both an efficient and inefficient system, the other three one of the systems; all but two models use R-channels as efficient system, and/or a linked-cavity like inefficient system, one exception uses porous layers with different characteristic for each of the systems, the other exception is based on canals. The main variable used for the comparison is effective pressure, as that is a direct proxy for basal sliding of glaciers. The models produce large differences in the effective pressure fields, in particular for higher water input scenarios. This shows that the selection of a subglacial drainage model will likely impact the conclusions of a study significantly.

  20. Structural characterization suggests models for monomeric and dimeric forms of full-length ezrin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phang, Juanita M; Harrop, Stephen J; Duff, Anthony P; Sokolova, Anna V; Crossett, Ben; Walsh, James C; Beckham, Simone A; Nguyen, Cuong D; Davies, Roberta B; Glöckner, Carina; Bromley, Elizabeth H C; Wilk, Krystyna E; Curmi, Paul M G

    2016-09-15

    Ezrin is a member of the ERM (ezrin-radixin-moesin) family of proteins that have been conserved through metazoan evolution. These proteins have dormant and active forms, where the latter links the actin cytoskeleton to membranes. ERM proteins have three domains: an N-terminal FERM [band Four-point-one (4.1) ERM] domain comprising three subdomains (F1, F2, and F3); a helical domain; and a C-terminal actin-binding domain. In the dormant form, FERM and C-terminal domains form a stable complex. We have determined crystal structures of the active FERM domain and the dormant FERM:C-terminal domain complex of human ezrin. We observe a bistable array of phenylalanine residues in the core of subdomain F3 that is mobile in the active form and locked in the dormant form. As subdomain F3 is pivotal in binding membrane proteins and phospholipids, these transitions may facilitate activation and signaling. Full-length ezrin forms stable monomers and dimers. We used small-angle X-ray scattering to determine the solution structures of these species. As expected, the monomer shows a globular domain with a protruding helical coiled coil. The dimer shows an elongated dumbbell structure that is twice as long as the monomer. By aligning ERM sequences spanning metazoan evolution, we show that the central helical region is conserved, preserving the heptad repeat. Using this, we have built a dimer model where each monomer forms half of an elongated antiparallel coiled coil with domain-swapped FERM:C-terminal domain complexes at each end. The model suggests that ERM dimers may bind to actin in a parallel fashion.

  1. Vesicular Stomatitis Virus Polymerase's Strong Affinity to Its Template Suggests Exotic Transcription Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Xiaolin; Bendjennat, Mourad; Saffarian, Saveez

    2014-01-01

    Vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV) is the prototype for negative sense non segmented (NNS) RNA viruses which include potent human and animal pathogens such as Rabies, Ebola and measles. The polymerases of NNS RNA viruses only initiate transcription at or near the 3′ end of their genome template. We measured the dissociation constant of VSV polymerases from their whole genome template to be 20 pM. Given this low dissociation constant, initiation and sustainability of transcription becomes nontrivial. To explore possible mechanisms, we simulated the first hour of transcription using Monte Carlo methods and show that a one-time initial dissociation of all polymerases during entry is not sufficient to sustain transcription. We further show that efficient transcription requires a sliding mechanism for non-transcribing polymerases and can be realized with different polymerase-polymerase interactions and distinct template topologies. In conclusion, we highlight a model in which collisions between transcribing and sliding non-transcribing polymerases result in release of the non-transcribing polymerases allowing for redistribution of polymerases between separate templates during transcription and suggest specific experiments to further test these mechanisms. PMID:25501005

  2. Rate control management of atrial fibrillation: may a mathematical model suggest an ideal heart rate?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matteo Anselmino

    Full Text Available Despite the routine prescription of rate control therapy for atrial fibrillation (AF, clinical evidence demonstrating a heart rate target is lacking. Aim of the present study was to run a mathematical model simulating AF episodes with a different heart rate (HR to predict hemodynamic parameters for each situation.The lumped model, representing the pumping heart together with systemic and pulmonary circuits, was run to simulate AF with HR of 50, 70, 90, 110 and 130 bpm, respectively.Left ventricular pressure increased by 57%, from 33.92±37.56 mmHg to 53.15±47.56 mmHg, and mean systemic arterial pressure increased by 27%, from 82.66±14.04 mmHg to 105.3±7.6 mmHg, at the 50 and 130 bpm simulations, respectively. Stroke volume (from 77.45±8.50 to 39.09±8.08 mL, ejection fraction (from 61.10±4.40 to 39.32±5.42% and stroke work (SW, from 0.88±0.04 to 0.58±0.09 J decreased by 50, 36 and 34%, at the 50 and 130 bpm simulations, respectively. In addition, oxygen consumption indexes (rate pressure product - RPP, tension time index per minute - TTI/min, and pressure volume area per minute - PVA/min increased from the 50 to the 130 bpm simulation, respectively, by 186% (from 5598±1939 to 15995±3219 mmHg/min, 56% (from 2094±265 to 3257±301 mmHg s/min and 102% (from 57.99±17.90 to 117.4±26.0 J/min. In fact, left ventricular efficiency (SW/PVA decreased from 80.91±2.91% at 50 bpm to 66.43±3.72% at the 130 bpm HR simulation.Awaiting compulsory direct clinical evidences, the present mathematical model suggests that lower HRs during permanent AF relates to improved hemodynamic parameters, cardiac efficiency, and lower oxygen consumption.

  3. Ensemble of regional climate model projections for Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, Paul; McGrath, Ray

    2016-04-01

    The method of Regional Climate Modelling (RCM) was employed to assess the impacts of a warming climate on the mid-21st-century climate of Ireland. The RCM simulations were run at high spatial resolution, up to 4 km, thus allowing a better evaluation of the local effects of climate change. Simulations were run for a reference period 1981-2000 and future period 2041-2060. Differences between the two periods provide a measure of climate change. To address the issue of uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble approach was employed. Specifically, the future climate of Ireland was simulated using three different RCMs, driven by four Global Climate Models (GCMs). To account for the uncertainty in future emissions, a number of SRES (B1, A1B, A2) and RCP (4.5, 8.5) emission scenarios were used to simulate the future climate. Through the ensemble approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections can be partially quantified, thus providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. In addition, likelihood values can be assigned to the projections. The RCMs used in this work are the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling-Climate Limited-area Modelling (COSMO-CLM, versions 3 and 4) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The GCMs used are the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5, the UK Met Office's HadGEM2-ES, the CGCM3.1 model from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and the EC-Earth consortium GCM. The projections for mid-century indicate an increase of 1-1.6°C in mean annual temperatures, with the largest increases seen in the east of the country. Warming is enhanced for the extremes (i.e. hot or cold days), with the warmest 5% of daily maximum summer temperatures projected to increase by 0.7-2.6°C. The coldest 5% of night-time temperatures in winter are projected to rise by 1.1-3.1°C. Averaged over the whole country, the number of frost days is projected to decrease by over 50%. The projections indicate an average increase in the length of the growing season

  4. A Model for Crises Management in Software Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Tarawneh

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Today software projects are important part into almost every business application. It is quality, efficiency and effectiveness of these applications will determine the failure or success of many business solutions. Consequently, businesses often find that they need to have a competitive and efficient advantage through the development and improve of software projects that help critical business activities. The quality of a software project is determined by the quality of the software development process. Improvements in the development process can lead to significant improvement in software quality. Based on the foregoing risks and problems which may be software engineering project faced, we try to shed light on the mechanism of dealing with crises in software engineering projects in this research. This research suggests a set of rules and guidelines that help software project mangers to prevent and dealing with software project crises Also a model was proposed; the proposed model showed a set of steps that must be implemented in case of crises emerging or before it happen. The crisis management starts understanding it first and then to prepare a careful review of her as she is looking for regions or aspects of the turmoil and failures. The next step is the classification of crisis, then the preparation or design a plan attitudinal or contingency plan, which must be implemented immediately upon the occurrence of crisis. Finally, the final element is the implementation of the program or plan established soon after the crisis and it should be noted here that the project team of software engineering that have been trained on the virtual models of various crises, which helps in the development of managed, skills, and also that you should avoid or ignore the failure to acknowledge a problem when Start or try to be underestimated or taken lightly.

  5. Genomic survey, gene expression analysis and structural modeling suggest diverse roles of DNA methyltransferases in legumes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rohini Garg

    Full Text Available DNA methylation plays a crucial role in development through inheritable gene silencing. Plants possess three types of DNA methyltransferases (MTases, namely Methyltransferase (MET, Chromomethylase (CMT and Domains Rearranged Methyltransferase (DRM, which maintain methylation at CG, CHG and CHH sites. DNA MTases have not been studied in legumes so far. Here, we report the identification and analysis of putative DNA MTases in five legumes, including chickpea, soybean, pigeonpea, Medicago and Lotus. MTases in legumes could be classified in known MET, CMT, DRM and DNA nucleotide methyltransferases (DNMT2 subfamilies based on their domain organization. First three MTases represent DNA MTases, whereas DNMT2 represents a transfer RNA (tRNA MTase. Structural comparison of all the MTases in plants with known MTases in mammalian and plant systems have been reported to assign structural features in context of biological functions of these proteins. The structure analysis clearly specified regions crucial for protein-protein interactions and regions important for nucleosome binding in various domains of CMT and MET proteins. In addition, structural model of DRM suggested that circular permutation of motifs does not have any effect on overall structure of DNA methyltransferase domain. These results provide valuable insights into role of various domains in molecular recognition and should facilitate mechanistic understanding of their function in mediating specific methylation patterns. Further, the comprehensive gene expression analyses of MTases in legumes provided evidence of their role in various developmental processes throughout the plant life cycle and response to various abiotic stresses. Overall, our study will be very helpful in establishing the specific functions of DNA MTases in legumes.

  6. Genomic survey, gene expression analysis and structural modeling suggest diverse roles of DNA methyltransferases in legumes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garg, Rohini; Kumari, Romika; Tiwari, Sneha; Goyal, Shweta

    2014-01-01

    DNA methylation plays a crucial role in development through inheritable gene silencing. Plants possess three types of DNA methyltransferases (MTases), namely Methyltransferase (MET), Chromomethylase (CMT) and Domains Rearranged Methyltransferase (DRM), which maintain methylation at CG, CHG and CHH sites. DNA MTases have not been studied in legumes so far. Here, we report the identification and analysis of putative DNA MTases in five legumes, including chickpea, soybean, pigeonpea, Medicago and Lotus. MTases in legumes could be classified in known MET, CMT, DRM and DNA nucleotide methyltransferases (DNMT2) subfamilies based on their domain organization. First three MTases represent DNA MTases, whereas DNMT2 represents a transfer RNA (tRNA) MTase. Structural comparison of all the MTases in plants with known MTases in mammalian and plant systems have been reported to assign structural features in context of biological functions of these proteins. The structure analysis clearly specified regions crucial for protein-protein interactions and regions important for nucleosome binding in various domains of CMT and MET proteins. In addition, structural model of DRM suggested that circular permutation of motifs does not have any effect on overall structure of DNA methyltransferase domain. These results provide valuable insights into role of various domains in molecular recognition and should facilitate mechanistic understanding of their function in mediating specific methylation patterns. Further, the comprehensive gene expression analyses of MTases in legumes provided evidence of their role in various developmental processes throughout the plant life cycle and response to various abiotic stresses. Overall, our study will be very helpful in establishing the specific functions of DNA MTases in legumes.

  7. Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project for Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Congbin; Wang, Shuyu; Xiong, Zhe; Gutowski, William J.; Lee, Dong-Kyou; McGregor, John L.; Sato, Yasuo; Kato, Hisashi; Kim, Jeong-Woo; Suh, Myoung-Seok

    2005-02-01

    Improving the simulation of regional climate change is one of the high-priority areas of climate study because regional information is needed for climate change impact assessments. Such information is especially important for the region covered by the East Asian monsoon where there is high variability in both space and time. To this end, the Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project (RMIP) for Asia has been established to evaluate and improve regional climate model (RCM) simulations of the monsoon climate. RMIP operates under joint support of the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN), the Global Change System for Analysis, Research and Training (START), the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and several projects of participating nations. The project currently involves 10 research groups from Australia, China, Japan, South Korea, and the United States, as well as scientists from India, Italy, Mongolia, North Korea, and Russia.RMIP has three simulation phases: March 1997-August 1998, which covers a full annual cycle and extremes in monsoon behavior; January 1989-December 1998, which examines simulated climatology; and a regional climate change scenario, involving nesting with a global model. This paper is a brief report of RMIP goals, implementation design, and some initial results from the first phase studies.

  8. Calibration Methods Used in Cancer Simulation Models and Suggested Reporting Guidelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stout, Natasha K.; Knudsen, Amy B.; Kong, Chung Yin (Joey); McMahon, Pamela M.; Gazelle, G. Scott

    2009-01-01

    Background Increasingly, computer simulation models are used for economic and policy evaluation in cancer prevention and control. A model’s predictions of key outcomes such as screening effectiveness depends on the values of unobservable natural history parameters. Calibration is the process of determining the values of unobservable parameters by constraining model output to replicate observed data. Because there are many approaches for model calibration and little consensus on best practices, we surveyed the literature to catalogue the use and reporting of these methods in cancer simulation models. Methods We conducted a MEDLINE search (1980 through 2006) for articles on cancer screening models and supplemented search results with articles from our personal reference databases. For each article, two authors independently abstracted pre-determined items using a standard form. Data items included cancer site, model type, methods used for determination of unobservable parameter values, and description of any calibration protocol. All authors reached consensus on items of disagreement. Reviews and non-cancer models were excluded. Articles describing analytical models which estimate parameters with statistical approaches (e.g., maximum likelihood) were catalogued separately. Models that included unobservable parameters were analyzed and classified by whether calibration methods were reported and if so, the methods used. Results The review process yielded 154 articles that met our inclusion criteria and of these, we concluded that 131 may have used calibration methods to determine model parameters. Although the term “calibration” was not always used, descriptions of calibration or “model fitting” were found in 50% (n=66) of the articles with an additional 16% (n=21) providing a reference to methods. Calibration target data were identified in nearly all of these articles. Other methodologic details such as the goodness-of-fit metric were discussed in 54% (n=47

  9. Coordinating the Provision of Health Services in Humanitarian Crises: a Systematic Review of Suggested Models

    OpenAIRE

    Lotfi, Tamara; Bou-Karroum, Lama; Darzi, Andrea; Hajjar, Rayan; El Rahyel, Ahmed; El Eid, Jamale; Itani, Mira; Brax, Hneine; Akik, Chaza; Osman, Mona; Hassan, Ghayda; El-Jardali, Fadi; Akl, Elie

    2016-01-01

    Background: Our objective was to identify published models of coordination between entities funding or delivering health services in humanitarian crises, whether the coordination took place during or after the crises. Methods: We included reports describing models of coordination in sufficient detail to allow reproducibility. We also included reports describing implementation of identified models, as case studies. We searched Medline, PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Tr...

  10. Conceptual Models in Health Informatics Research: A Literature Review and Suggestions for Development

    OpenAIRE

    Gray, Kathleen; Sockolow, Paulina

    2016-01-01

    Background Contributing to health informatics research means using conceptual models that are integrative and explain the research in terms of the two broad domains of health science and information science. However, it can be hard for novice health informatics researchers to find exemplars and guidelines in working with integrative conceptual models. Objectives The aim of this paper is to support the use of integrative conceptual models in research on information and communication technologi...

  11. Avoiding unintentional eviction from integral projection models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Jennifer L; Miller, Tom E X; Ellner, Stephen P

    2012-09-01

    Integral projection models (IPMs) are increasingly being applied to study size-structured populations. Here we call attention to a potential problem in their construction that can have important consequences for model results. IPMs are implemented using an approximating matrix and bounded size range. Individuals near the size limits can be unknowingly "evicted" from the model because their predicted future size is outside the range. We provide simple measures for the magnitude of eviction and the sensitivity of the population growth rate (lambda) to eviction, allowing modelers to assess the severity of the problem in their IPM. For IPMs of three plant species, we found that eviction occurred in all cases and caused underestimation of the population growth rate (lambda) relative to eviction-free models; it is likely that other models are similarly affected. Models with frequent eviction should be modified because eviction is only possible when size transitions are badly mis-specified. We offer several solutions to eviction problems, but we emphasize that the modeler must choose the most appropriate solution based on an understanding of why eviction occurs in the first place. We recommend testing IPMs for eviction problems and resolving them, so that population dynamics are modeled more accurately.

  12. Projecting Policy Effects with Statistical Models Projecting Policy Effects with Statistical Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Sims

    1988-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to briefly discus the current frontiers in quantitative modeling for forecastina and policy analvsis. It does so by summarizing some recent developmenrs in three areas: reduced form forecasting models; theoretical models including elements of stochastic optimization; and identification. In the process, the paper tries to provide some remarks on the direction we seem to be headed. Projecting Policy Effects with Statistical Models

  13. The Chancellor's Model School Project (CMSP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, Gil

    1999-01-01

    What does it take to create and implement a 7th to 8th grade middle school program where the great majority of students achieve at high academic levels regardless of their previous elementary school backgrounds? This was the major question that guided the research and development of a 7-year long project effort entitled the Chancellor's Model School Project (CMSP) from September 1991 to August 1998. The CMSP effort conducted largely in two New York City public schools was aimed at creating and testing a prototype 7th and 8th grade model program that was organized and test-implemented in two distinct project phases: Phase I of the CMSP effort was conducted from 1991 to 1995 as a 7th to 8th grade extension of an existing K-6 elementary school, and Phase II was conducted from 1995 to 1998 as a 7th to 8th grade middle school program that became an integral part of a newly established 7-12th grade high school. In Phase I, the CMSP demonstrated that with a highly structured curriculum coupled with strong academic support and increased learning time, students participating in the CMSP were able to develop a strong foundation for rigorous high school coursework within the space of 2 years (at the 7th and 8th grades). Mathematics and Reading test score data during Phase I of the project, clearly indicated that significant academic gains were obtained by almost all students -- at both the high and low ends of the spectrum -- regardless of their previous academic performance in the K-6 elementary school experience. The CMSP effort expanded in Phase II to include a fully operating 7-12 high school model. Achievement gains at the 7th and 8th grade levels in Phase II were tempered by the fact that incoming 7th grade students' academic background at the CMSP High School was significantly lower than students participating in Phase 1. Student performance in Phase II was also affected by the broadening of the CMSP effort from a 7-8th grade program to a fully functioning 7-12 high

  14. Mathematical modeling suggests that periodontitis behaves as a non-linear chaotic dynamical process

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Papantonopoulos, G.H.; Takahashi, K.; Bountis, T.; Loos, B.G.

    2013-01-01

    Background: This study aims to expand on a previously presented cellular automata model and further explore the non-linear dynamics of periodontitis. Additionally the authors investigated whether their mathematical model could predict the two known types of periodontitis, aggressive (AgP) and

  15. A Multi-Scale Energy Demand Model suggests sharing Market Risks with Intelligent Energy Cooperatives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Methenitis, G.; Kaisers, M.; La Poutré, J.A.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a multi-scale model of energy demand that is consistent with observations at a macro scale, in our use-case standard load profiles for (residential) electric loads. We employ the model to study incentives to assume the risk of volatile market prices for intelligent energy c

  16. A Literature Review of Empowerment With a Suggested Empowerment Model for the BDF

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-12-01

    21 A. THE CONGER AND KANUNGO MODEL ......................................... 21 B. THE THOMAS AND VELTHHOUSE MODEL...that people already have in their wealth and useful knowledge and internal motivation.” Similarly, Conger and Kanungo (1988, p...empowerment as sharing power and authority (a relational perspective), while definitions by Randolph and Conger and Kanungo view empowerment as a

  17. Predictor Relationships between Values Held by Married Individuals, Resilience and Conflict Resolution Styles: A Model Suggestion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tosun, Fatma; Dilmac, Bulent

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the present research is to reveal the predictor relationships between the values held by married individuals, resilience and conflict resolution styles. The research adopts a relational screening model that is a sub-type of the general screening model. The sample of the research consists of 375 married individuals, of which 173 are…

  18. Mathematical modeling suggests that periodontitis behaves as a non-linear chaotic dynamical process

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Papantonopoulos, G.H.; Takahashi, K.; Bountis, T.; Loos, B.G.

    2013-01-01

    Background: This study aims to expand on a previously presented cellular automata model and further explore the non-linear dynamics of periodontitis. Additionally the authors investigated whether their mathematical model could predict the two known types of periodontitis, aggressive (AgP) and chroni

  19. Development of integrated software project planning model

    OpenAIRE

    Manalif, Ekananta; Capretz, Luiz Fernando; Ho, Danny

    2012-01-01

    As the most uncertain and complex project when compared to other types of projects, software development project is highly depend on the result of software project planning phase that helping project managers by predicting the project demands with respect to the budgeting, scheduling, and the allocation of resources. The two main activities in software project planning are effort estimation and risk assessment which has to be executed together because the accuracy of the effort estimation is ...

  20. Project-matrix models of marketing organization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gutić Dragutin

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Unlike theory and practice of corporation organization, in marketing organization numerous forms and contents at its disposal are not reached until this day. It can be well estimated that marketing organization today in most of our companies and in almost all its parts, noticeably gets behind corporation organization. Marketing managers have always been occupied by basic, narrow marketing activities as: sales growth, market analysis, market growth and market share, marketing research, introduction of new products, modification of products, promotion, distribution etc. They rarely found it necessary to focus a bit more to different aspects of marketing management, for example: marketing planning and marketing control, marketing organization and leading. This paper deals with aspects of project - matrix marketing organization management. Two-dimensional and more-dimensional models are presented. Among two-dimensional, these models are analyzed: Market management/products management model; Products management/management of product lifecycle phases on market model; Customers management/marketing functions management model; Demand management/marketing functions management model; Market positions management/marketing functions management model. .

  1. Building information models for astronomy projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ariño, Javier; Murga, Gaizka; Campo, Ramón; Eletxigerra, Iñigo; Ampuero, Pedro

    2012-09-01

    A Building Information Model is a digital representation of physical and functional characteristics of a building. BIMs represent the geometrical characteristics of the Building, but also properties like bills of quantities, definition of COTS components, status of material in the different stages of the project, project economic data, etc. The BIM methodology, which is well established in the Architecture Engineering and Construction (AEC) domain for conventional buildings, has been brought one step forward in its application for Astronomical/Scientific facilities. In these facilities steel/concrete structures have high dynamic and seismic requirements, M&E installations are complex and there is a large amount of special equipment and mechanisms involved as a fundamental part of the facility. The detail design definition is typically implemented by different design teams in specialized design software packages. In order to allow the coordinated work of different engineering teams, the overall model, and its associated engineering database, is progressively integrated using a coordination and roaming software which can be used before starting construction phase for checking interferences, planning the construction sequence, studying maintenance operation, reporting to the project office, etc. This integrated design & construction approach will allow to efficiently plan construction sequence (4D). This is a powerful tool to study and analyze in detail alternative construction sequences and ideally coordinate the work of different construction teams. In addition engineering, construction and operational database can be linked to the virtual model (6D), what gives to the end users a invaluable tool for the lifecycle management, as all the facility information can be easily accessed, added or replaced. This paper presents the BIM methodology as implemented by IDOM with the E-ELT and ATST Enclosures as application examples.

  2. Using hypnotic suggestion to model loss of control and awareness of movements: an exploratory FMRI study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quinton Deeley

    Full Text Available The feeling of voluntary control and awareness of movement is fundamental to our notions of selfhood and responsibility for actions, yet can be lost in neuropsychiatric syndromes (e.g. delusions of control, non-epileptic seizures and culturally influenced dissociative states (e.g. attributions of spirit possession. The brain processes involved remain poorly understood. We used suggestion and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI to investigate loss of control and awareness of right hand movements in 15 highly hypnotically suggestible subjects. Loss of perceived control of movements was associated with reduced connectivity between supplementary motor area (SMA and motor regions. Reduced awareness of involuntary movements was associated with less activation in parietal cortices (BA 7, BA 40 and insula. Collectively these results suggest that the sense of voluntary control of movement may critically depend on the functional coupling of SMA with motor systems, and provide a potential neural basis for the narrowing of awareness reported in pathological and culturally influenced dissociative phenomena.

  3. Systemic change increases model projection uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verstegen, Judith; Karssenberg, Derek; van der Hilst, Floor; Faaij, André

    2014-05-01

    Most spatio-temporal models are based on the assumption that the relationship between system state change and its explanatory processes is stationary. This means that model structure and parameterization are usually kept constant over time, ignoring potential systemic changes in this relationship resulting from e.g., climatic or societal changes, thereby overlooking a source of uncertainty. We define systemic change as a change in the system indicated by a system state change that cannot be simulated using a constant model structure. We have developed a method to detect systemic change, using a Bayesian data assimilation technique, the particle filter. The particle filter was used to update the prior knowledge about the model structure. In contrast to the traditional particle filter approach (e.g., Verstegen et al., 2014), we apply the filter separately for each point in time for which observations are available, obtaining the optimal model structure for each of the time periods in between. This allows us to create a time series of the evolution of the model structure. The Runs test (Wald and Wolfowitz, 1940), a stationarity test, is used to check whether variation in this time series can be attributed to randomness or not. If not, this indicates systemic change. The uncertainty that the systemic change adds to the existing model projection uncertainty can be determined by comparing model outcomes of a model with a stationary model structure and a model with a model structure changing according to the variation found in the time series. To test the systemic change detection methodology, we apply it to a land use change cellular automaton (CA) (Verstegen et al., 2012) and use observations of real land use from all years from 2004 to 2012 and associated uncertainty as observational data in the particle filter. A systemic change was detected for the period 2006 to 2008. In this period the influence on the location of sugar cane expansion of the driver sugar cane in

  4. A Latent Growth Model Suggests that Empathy of Medical Students Does Not Decline over Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Patrício; Magalhães, Eunice; Costa, Manuel João

    2013-01-01

    Empathy is a relevant attribute in the context of patient care. However, a decline in empathy throughout medical education has been reported in North-American medical schools, particularly, in the transition to clinical training. The present study aims to longitudinally model empathy during medical school at three time points: at the entrance,…

  5. A Latent Growth Model Suggests that Empathy of Medical Students Does Not Decline over Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Patrício; Magalhães, Eunice; Costa, Manuel João

    2013-01-01

    Empathy is a relevant attribute in the context of patient care. However, a decline in empathy throughout medical education has been reported in North-American medical schools, particularly, in the transition to clinical training. The present study aims to longitudinally model empathy during medical school at three time points: at the entrance,…

  6. Modelling soil organic carbon in Danish agricultural soils suggests low potential for future carbon sequestration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taghizadeh-Toosi, Arezoo; Olesen, Jørgen Eivind

    2016-01-01

    Soil organic carbon (SOC) is in active exchange with the atmosphere. The amount of organic carbon (OC) input into the soil and SOC turnover rate are important for predicting the carbon (C) sequestration potential of soils subject to changes in land-use and climate. The C-TOOL model was developed...

  7. Modeling of the human rhinovirus C capsid suggests possible causes for antiviral drug resistance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basta, Holly A; Ashraf, Shamaila; Sgro, Jean-Yves; Bochkov, Yury A; Gern, James E; Palmenberg, Ann C

    2014-01-05

    Human rhinoviruses of the RV-C species are recently discovered pathogens with greater clinical significance than isolates in the RV-A+B species. The RV-C cannot be propagated in typical culture systems; so much of the virology is necessarily derivative, relying on comparative genomics, relative to the better studied RV-A+B. We developed a bioinformatics-based structural model for a C15 isolate. The model showed the VP1-3 capsid proteins retain their fundamental cores relative to the RV-A+B, but conserved, internal RV-C residues affect the shape and charge of the VP1 hydrophobic pocket that confers antiviral drug susceptibility. When predictions of the model were tested in organ cultures or ALI systems with recombinant C15 virus, there was a resistance to capsid-binding drugs, including pleconaril, BTA-188, WIN56291, WIN52035 and WIN52084. Unique to all RV-C, the model predicts conserved amino acids within the pocket and capsid surface pore leading to the pocket may correlate with this activity.

  8. Dynamic computational model suggests that cellular citizenship is fundamental for selective tumor apoptosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan Olsen

    Full Text Available Computational models in the field of cancer research have focused primarily on estimates of biological events based on laboratory generated data. We introduce a novel in-silico technology that takes us to the next level of prediction models and facilitates innovative solutions through the mathematical system. The model's building blocks are cells defined phenotypically as normal or tumor, with biological processes translated into equations describing the life protocols of the cells in a quantitative and stochastic manner. The essentials of communication in a society composed of normal and tumor cells are explored to reveal "protocols" for selective tumor eradication. Results consistently identify "citizenship properties" among cells that are essential for the induction of healing processes in a healthy system invaded by cancer. These properties act via inter-cellular communication protocols that can be optimized to induce tumor eradication along with system recovery. Within the computational systems, the protocols universally succeed in removing a wide variety of tumors defined by proliferation rates, initial volumes, and apoptosis resistant phenotypes; they show high adaptability for biological details and allow incorporation of population heterogeneity. These protocols work as long as at least 32% of cells obey extra-cellular commands and at least 28% of cancer cells report their deaths. This low percentage implies that the protocols are resilient to the suboptimal situations often seen in biological systems. We conclude that our in-silico model is a powerful tool to investigate, to propose, and to exercise logical anti-cancer solutions. Functional results should be confirmed in a biological system and molecular findings should be loaded into the computational model for the next level of directed experiments.

  9. A suggested model for physical examination and conservative treatment of athletic pubalgia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hegedus, Eric J; Stern, Ben; Reiman, Michael P; Tarara, Dan; Wright, Alexis A

    2013-02-01

    Athletic pubalgia (AP) is a chronic debilitating syndrome that affects many athletes. As a syndrome, AP is difficult to diagnose both with clinical examination and imaging. AP is also a challenge for conservative intervention with randomized controlled trials showing mixed success rates. In other syndromes where clinical diagnosis and conservative treatment have been less than clear, a paradigm has been suggested as a framework for clinical decision making. To propose a new clinical diagnostic and treatment paradigm for the conservative management of AP. Relevant studies were viewed with regard to diagnosis and intervention and where a gap in evidence existed, clinical expertise was used to fill that gap and duly noted. A new paradigm is proposed to assist with clinical diagnosis and non-surgical intervention in patients suffering with AP. The level of evidence supporting this paradigm, according to the SORT taxonomy, is primarily level 2B. Further testing is warranted but following the suggested paradigm should lead to a clearer diagnosis of AP and allow more meaningful research into homogeneous patient populations within the AP diagnostic cluster. Strength-of-Recommendation Taxonomy (SORT): 2B. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. A decision model for energy companies that sorts projects, classifies the project manager and recommends the final match between project and project manager

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaine Cristina Batista de Oliveira

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This study presents an integrated model to support the process of classifying projects and selecting project managers for these projects in accordance with their characteristics and skills using a multiple criteria decision aid (MCDA approach. Such criteria are often conflicting. The model also supports the process of allocating project managers to projects by evaluating the characteristics/types of projects. The framework consists of a set of structured techniques and methods that are deemed very appropriate within the context of project management. A practical application of the proposed model was performed in a Brazilian electric energy company, which has a portfolio of projects that are specifically related to the company´s defined strategic plan. As a result, it was possible to classify the projects and project managers into definable categories, thus enabling more effective management as different projects require different levels of skills and abilities.

  11. Community-wide assessment of protein-interface modeling suggests improvements to design methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleishman, Sarel J; Whitehead, Timothy A; Strauch, Eva-Maria; Corn, Jacob E; Qin, Sanbo; Zhou, Huan-Xiang; Mitchell, Julie C; Demerdash, Omar N A; Takeda-Shitaka, Mayuko; Terashi, Genki; Moal, Iain H; Li, Xiaofan; Bates, Paul A; Zacharias, Martin; Park, Hahnbeom; Ko, Jun-su; Lee, Hasup; Seok, Chaok; Bourquard, Thomas; Bernauer, Julie; Poupon, Anne; Azé, Jérôme; Soner, Seren; Ovali, Sefik Kerem; Ozbek, Pemra; Tal, Nir Ben; Haliloglu, Türkan; Hwang, Howook; Vreven, Thom; Pierce, Brian G; Weng, Zhiping; Pérez-Cano, Laura; Pons, Carles; Fernández-Recio, Juan; Jiang, Fan; Yang, Feng; Gong, Xinqi; Cao, Libin; Xu, Xianjin; Liu, Bin; Wang, Panwen; Li, Chunhua; Wang, Cunxin; Robert, Charles H; Guharoy, Mainak; Liu, Shiyong; Huang, Yangyu; Li, Lin; Guo, Dachuan; Chen, Ying; Xiao, Yi; London, Nir; Itzhaki, Zohar; Schueler-Furman, Ora; Inbar, Yuval; Potapov, Vladimir; Cohen, Mati; Schreiber, Gideon; Tsuchiya, Yuko; Kanamori, Eiji; Standley, Daron M; Nakamura, Haruki; Kinoshita, Kengo; Driggers, Camden M; Hall, Robert G; Morgan, Jessica L; Hsu, Victor L; Zhan, Jian; Yang, Yuedong; Zhou, Yaoqi; Kastritis, Panagiotis L; Bonvin, Alexandre M J J; Zhang, Weiyi; Camacho, Carlos J; Kilambi, Krishna P; Sircar, Aroop; Gray, Jeffrey J; Ohue, Masahito; Uchikoga, Nobuyuki; Matsuzaki, Yuri; Ishida, Takashi; Akiyama, Yutaka; Khashan, Raed; Bush, Stephen; Fouches, Denis; Tropsha, Alexander; Esquivel-Rodríguez, Juan; Kihara, Daisuke; Stranges, P Benjamin; Jacak, Ron; Kuhlman, Brian; Huang, Sheng-You; Zou, Xiaoqin; Wodak, Shoshana J; Janin, Joel; Baker, David

    2011-11-25

    The CAPRI (Critical Assessment of Predicted Interactions) and CASP (Critical Assessment of protein Structure Prediction) experiments have demonstrated the power of community-wide tests of methodology in assessing the current state of the art and spurring progress in the very challenging areas of protein docking and structure prediction. We sought to bring the power of community-wide experiments to bear on a very challenging protein design problem that provides a complementary but equally fundamental test of current understanding of protein-binding thermodynamics. We have generated a number of designed protein-protein interfaces with very favorable computed binding energies but which do not appear to be formed in experiments, suggesting that there may be important physical chemistry missing in the energy calculations. A total of 28 research groups took up the challenge of determining what is missing: we provided structures of 87 designed complexes and 120 naturally occurring complexes and asked participants to identify energetic contributions and/or structural features that distinguish between the two sets. The community found that electrostatics and solvation terms partially distinguish the designs from the natural complexes, largely due to the nonpolar character of the designed interactions. Beyond this polarity difference, the community found that the designed binding surfaces were, on average, structurally less embedded in the designed monomers, suggesting that backbone conformational rigidity at the designed surface is important for realization of the designed function. These results can be used to improve computational design strategies, but there is still much to be learned; for example, one designed complex, which does form in experiments, was classified by all metrics as a nonbinder.

  12. Rate Control Management of Atrial Fibrillation: May a Mathematical Model Suggest an Ideal Heart Rate?

    CERN Document Server

    Anselmino, Matteo; Camporeale, Carlo; Saglietto, Andrea; Gaita, Fiorenzo; Ridolfi, Luca

    2015-01-01

    Background. Despite the routine prescription of rate control therapy for atrial fibrillation (AF), clinical evidence demonstrating a heart rate target is lacking. Aim of the present study was to run a mathematical model simulating AF episodes with a different heart rate (HR) to predict hemodynamic parameters for each situation. Methods. The lumped model, representing the pumping heart together with systemic and pulmonary circuits, was run to simulate AF with HR of 50, 70, 90, 110 and 130 bpm, respectively. Results. Left ventricular pressure increased by 56.7%, from 33.92+-37.56 mmHg to 53.15+-47.56 mmHg, and mean systemic arterial pressure increased by 27.4%, from 82.66+-14.04 mmHg to 105.29+-7.63 mmHg, at the 50 and 130 bpm simulations, respectively. Stroke volume (from 77.45+-8.5 to 39.09+-8.08 mL), ejection fraction (from 61.1+-4.4 to 39.32+-5.42%) and stroke work (SW, from 0.88+-0.04 to 0.58+-0.09 J) decreased by 49.5, 35.6 and 34.2%, at the 50 and 130 bpm simulations, respectively. In addition, oxygen co...

  13. Research Spotlight: Model suggests path to ending the ongoing Haitian cholera epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Colin

    2011-05-01

    Since early November 2010 a deadly cholera epidemic has been spreading across the Caribbean nation of Haiti, killing thousands of people and infecting hundreds of thousands. While infection rates are being actively monitored, health organizations have been left without a clear understanding of exactly how the disease has spread across Haiti. Cholera can spread through exposure to contaminated water, and the disease travels over long distances if an infected individual moves around the country. Using representations of these two predominant dispersion mechanisms, along with information on the size of the susceptible population, the number of infected individuals, and the aquatic concentration of the cholera-causing bacteria for more than 500 communities, Bertuzzo et al. designed a model that was able to accurately reproduce the progression of the Haitian cholera epidemic. (Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2011GL046823, 2011)

  14. Computational modeling suggests distinct, location-specific function of norepinephrine in olfactory bulb and piriform cortex

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Licurgo ede Almeida

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Noradrenergic modulation from the locus coerulus is often associated with the regulation of sensory signal-to-noise ratio. In the olfactory system, noradrenergic modulation affects both bulbar and cortical processing, and has been show to modulate the detection of low concentration stimuli. We here implemented a computational model of the olfactory bulb and piriform cortex, based on known experimental results, to explore how noradrenergic modulation in the olfactory bulb and piriform cortex interact to regulate odor processing. We show that as predicted by behavioral experiments in our lab, norepinephrine can play a critical role in modulating the detection and associative learning of very low odor concentrations. Our simulations show that bulbar norepinephrine serves to pre-process odor representations to facilitate cortical learning, but not recall. We observe the typical non-uniform dose – response functions described for norepinephrine modulation and show that these are imposed mainly by bulbar, but not cortical processing.

  15. Computational modeling suggests distinct, location-specific function of norepinephrine in olfactory bulb and piriform cortex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Almeida, Licurgo; Reiner, Seungdo J; Ennis, Matthew; Linster, Christiane

    2015-01-01

    Noradrenergic modulation from the locus coerulus is often associated with the regulation of sensory signal-to-noise ratio. In the olfactory system, noradrenergic modulation affects both bulbar and cortical processing, and has been shown to modulate the detection of low concentration stimuli. We here implemented a computational model of the olfactory bulb and piriform cortex, based on known experimental results, to explore how noradrenergic modulation in the olfactory bulb and piriform cortex interact to regulate odor processing. We show that as predicted by behavioral experiments in our lab, norepinephrine can play a critical role in modulating the detection and associative learning of very low odor concentrations. Our simulations show that bulbar norepinephrine serves to pre-process odor representations to facilitate cortical learning, but not recall. We observe the typical non-uniform dose-response functions described for norepinephrine modulation and show that these are imposed mainly by bulbar, but not cortical processing.

  16. A conceptual model of psychological contracts in construction projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongjian Ke

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The strategic importance of relationship style contracting is recognised in the construction industry. Both public and private sector clients are stipulating more integrated and collaborative forms of procurement. Despite relationship and integrated contractual arrangement being available for some time, it is clear that construction firms have been slow to adopt them. Hence it is timely to examine how social exchanges, via unwritten agreement and behaviours, are being nurtured in construction projects. This paper adopted the concept of Psychological Contracts (PC to describe unwritten agreement and behaviours. A conceptual model of the PC is developed and validated using the results from a questionnaire survey administered to construction professionals in Australia. The results uncovered the relationships that existed amongst relational conditions and relational benefits, the PC and the partners’ satisfaction. The results show that all the hypotheses in the conceptual model of the PC are supported, suggesting the PC model is important and may have an effect on project performance and relationship quality among contracting parties. A validated model of the PC in construction was then developed based on the correlations among each component. The managerial implications are that past relationships and relationship characteristics should be taken into account in the selection of procurement partners and the promise of future resources, support and tangible relational outcomes are also vital. It is important for contracting parties to pay attention to unwritten agreements (the PC and behaviours when managing construction projects.

  17. Graphical modeling of gene expression in monocytes suggests molecular mechanisms explaining increased atherosclerosis in smokers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo A Verdugo

    Full Text Available Smoking is a risk factor for atherosclerosis with reported widespread effects on gene expression in circulating blood cells. We hypothesized that a molecular signature mediating the relation between smoking and atherosclerosis may be found in the transcriptome of circulating monocytes. Genome-wide expression profiles and counts of atherosclerotic plaques in carotid arteries were collected in 248 smokers and 688 non-smokers from the general population. Patterns of co-expressed genes were identified by Independent Component Analysis (ICA and network structure of the pattern-specific gene modules was inferred by the PC-algorithm. A likelihood-based causality test was implemented to select patterns that fit models containing a path "smoking→gene expression→plaques". Robustness of the causal inference was assessed by bootstrapping. At a FDR ≤0.10, 3,368 genes were associated to smoking or plaques, of which 93% were associated to smoking only. SASH1 showed the strongest association to smoking and PPARG the strongest association to plaques. Twenty-nine gene patterns were identified by ICA. Modules containing SASH1 and PPARG did not show evidence for the "smoking→gene expression→plaques" causality model. Conversely, three modules had good support for causal effects and exhibited a network topology consistent with gene expression mediating the relation between smoking and plaques. The network with the strongest support for causal effects was connected to plaques through SLC39A8, a gene with known association to HDL-cholesterol and cellular uptake of cadmium from tobacco, while smoking was directly connected to GAS6, a gene reported to have anti-inflammatory effects in atherosclerosis and to be up-regulated in the placenta of women smoking during pregnancy. Our analysis of the transcriptome of monocytes recovered genes relevant for association to smoking and atherosclerosis, and connected genes that before, were only studied in separate contexts

  18. Coumarins as Potential Antioxidant Agents Complemented with Suggested Mechanisms and Approved by Molecular Modeling Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasameen K. Al-Majedy

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Syntheses of coumarins, which are a structurally interesting antioxidant activity, was done in this article. The modification of 7-hydroxycoumarin by different reaction steps was done to yield target compounds. Molecular structures were characterized by different spectroscopical techniques (Fourier transformation infrared and nuclear magnetic resonance. Antioxidant activities were performed by using various in vitro spectrophometric assays against 1,1-diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH radical and hydrogen peroxide (H2O2. All compounds exhibited high efficiency as antioxidants compared to ascorbic acid. The highest efficiency scavenging activity was found for compound 3 (91.0 ± 5.0, followed by compounds 2 and 4 (88.0 ± 2.00; and 87.0 ± 3.00. Ascorbic acid C was used as a standard drug with a percentage inhibition of 91.00 ± 1.5. The mechanism of the synthesized compounds as antioxidants was also studied. Hartree–Fock–based quantum chemical studies have been carried out with the basis set to 3-21G, in order to obtain information about the three-dimensional (3D geometries, electronic structure, molecular modeling, and electronic levels, namely HOMO (highest occupied molecular orbital and LUMO (lowest unoccupied molecular orbital, to understand the antioxidant activity for the synthesized compounds.

  19. Model of a Generic Natural Uranium Conversion Plant ? Suggested Measures to Strengthen International Safeguards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raffo-Caiado, Ana Claudia [ORNL; Begovich, John M [ORNL; Ferrada, Juan J [ORNL

    2009-11-01

    This is the final report that closed a joint collaboration effort between DOE and the National Nuclear Energy Commission of Brazil (CNEN). In 2005, DOE and CNEN started a collaborative effort to evaluate measures that can strengthen the effectiveness of international safeguards at a natural uranium conversion plant (NUCP). The work was performed by DOE s Oak Ridge National Laboratory and CNEN. A generic model of a NUCP was developed and typical processing steps were defined. Advanced instrumentation and techniques for verification purposes were identified and investigated. The scope of the work was triggered by the International Atomic Energy Agency s 2003 revised policy concerning the starting point of safeguards at uranium conversion facilities. Prior to this policy only the final products of the uranium conversion plant were considered to be of composition and purity suitable for use in the nuclear fuel cycle and therefore, subject to the IAEA safeguards control. DOE and CNEN have explored options for implementing the IAEA policy, although Brazil understands that the new policy established by the IAEA is beyond the framework of the Quadripartite Agreement of which it is one of the parties, together with Argentina, the Brazilian-Argentine Agency for Accounting and Control of Nuclear Materials (ABACC) and the IAEA. Two technical papers on this subject were published at the 2005 and 2008 INMM Annual Meetings.

  20. Model of a Generic Natural Uranium Conversion Plant ? Suggested Measures to Strengthen International Safeguards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raffo-Caiado, Ana Claudia [ORNL; Begovich, John M [ORNL; Ferrada, Juan J [ORNL

    2009-11-01

    This is the final report that closed a joint collaboration effort between DOE and the National Nuclear Energy Commission of Brazil (CNEN). In 2005, DOE and CNEN started a collaborative effort to evaluate measures that can strengthen the effectiveness of international safeguards at a natural uranium conversion plant (NUCP). The work was performed by DOE s Oak Ridge National Laboratory and CNEN. A generic model of a NUCP was developed and typical processing steps were defined. Advanced instrumentation and techniques for verification purposes were identified and investigated. The scope of the work was triggered by the International Atomic Energy Agency s 2003 revised policy concerning the starting point of safeguards at uranium conversion facilities. Prior to this policy only the final products of the uranium conversion plant were considered to be of composition and purity suitable for use in the nuclear fuel cycle and therefore, subject to the IAEA safeguards control. DOE and CNEN have explored options for implementing the IAEA policy, although Brazil understands that the new policy established by the IAEA is beyond the framework of the Quadripartite Agreement of which it is one of the parties, together with Argentina, the Brazilian-Argentine Agency for Accounting and Control of Nuclear Materials (ABACC) and the IAEA. Two technical papers on this subject were published at the 2005 and 2008 INMM Annual Meetings.

  1. Projections of global changes in precipitation extremes from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Toreti, A.; Naveau, P.; Zampieri, M.; Schindler, A.; Scoccimarro, E.; Xoplaki, E.; Dijkstra, H.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073504467; Gualdi, S.; Luterbacher, J.

    2013-01-01

    Precipitation extremes are expected to increase in a warming climate; thus, it is essential to characterize their potential future changes. Here we evaluate eight high-resolution global climate model simulations in the twentieth century and provide new evidence on projected global precipitation

  2. Projections of global changes in precipitation extremes from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Toreti, A.; Naveau, P.; Zampieri, M.; Schindler, A.; Scoccimarro, E.; Xoplaki, E.; Dijkstra, H.A.; Gualdi, S.; Luterbacher, J.

    2013-01-01

    Precipitation extremes are expected to increase in a warming climate; thus, it is essential to characterize their potential future changes. Here we evaluate eight high-resolution global climate model simulations in the twentieth century and provide new evidence on projected global precipitation extr

  3. The sigma model on complex projective superspaces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Candu, Constantin; Mitev, Vladimir; Schomerus, Volker [DESY, Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Quella, Thomas [Amsterdam Univ. (Netherlands). Inst. for Theoretical Physics; Saleur, Hubert [CEA Saclay, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Inst. de Physique Theorique; USC, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Physics Dept.

    2009-08-15

    The sigma model on projective superspaces CP{sup S-1} {sup vertical} {sup stroke} {sup S} gives rise to a continuous family of interacting 2D conformal field theories which are parametrized by the curvature radius R and the theta angle {theta}. Our main goal is to determine the spectrum of the model, non-perturbatively as a function of both parameters. We succeed to do so for all open boundary conditions preserving the full global symmetry of the model. In string theory parlor, these correspond to volume filling branes that are equipped with a monopole line bundle and connection. The paper consists of two parts. In the first part, we approach the problem within the continuum formulation. Combining combinatorial arguments with perturbative studies and some simple free field calculations, we determine a closed formula for the partition function of the theory. This is then tested numerically in the second part. There we propose a spin chain regularization of the CP{sup S-1} {sup vertical} {sup stroke} {sup S} model with open boundary conditions and use it to determine the spectrum at the conformal fixed point. The numerical results are in remarkable agreement with the continuum analysis. (orig.)

  4. The Lunar Mapping and Modeling Project Update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noble, S.; French, R.; Nall, M.; Muery, K.

    2010-01-01

    The Lunar Mapping and Modeling Project (LMMP) is managing the development of a suite of lunar mapping and modeling tools and data products that support lunar exploration activities, including the planning, design, development, test, and operations associated with crewed and/or robotic operations on the lunar surface. In addition, LMMP should prove to be a convenient and useful tool for scientific analysis and for education and public outreach (E/PO) activities. LMMP will utilize data predominately from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, but also historical and international lunar mission data (e.g. Lunar Prospector, Clementine, Apollo, Lunar Orbiter, Kaguya, and Chandrayaan-1) as available and appropriate. LMMP will provide such products as image mosaics, DEMs, hazard assessment maps, temperature maps, lighting maps and models, gravity models, and resource maps. We are working closely with the LRO team to prevent duplication of efforts and ensure the highest quality data products. A beta version of the LMMP software was released for limited distribution in December 2009, with the public release of version 1 expected in the Fall of 2010.

  5. Modelling in Evaluating a Working Life Project in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarja, Anneli; Janhonen, Sirpa; Havukainen, Pirjo; Vesterinen, Anne

    2012-01-01

    This article describes an evaluation method based on collaboration between the higher education, a care home and university, in a R&D project. The aim of the project was to elaborate modelling as a tool of developmental evaluation for innovation and competence in project cooperation. The approach was based on activity theory. Modelling enabled a…

  6. Pataha Creek Model Watershed : 1998 Habitat Conservation Projects.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bartels, Duane G.

    1999-12-01

    The projects outlined in detail on the attached project reports are a few of the many projects implemented in the Pataha Creek Model Watershed since it was selected as a model in 1993. 1998 was a year where a focused effort was made to work on the upland conservation practices to reduce the sedimentation into Pataha Creek.

  7. Evidence Suggesting a Role of Iron in a Mouse Model of Nephrogenic Systemic Fibrosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chhanda Bose

    Full Text Available Nephrogenic systemic fibrosis is associated with gadolinium contrast exposure in patients with reduced kidney function and carries high morbidity and mortality. We have previously demonstrated that gadolinium contrast agents induce in vivo systemic iron mobilization and in vitro differentiation of peripheral blood mononuclear cells into ferroportin (iron exporter-expressing fibrocytic cells. In the present study we examined the role of iron in a mouse model of nephrogenic systemic fibrosis. Chronic kidney disease was induced in 8-week-old male Balb/C mice with a two-step 5/6 nephrectomy surgery. Five groups of mice were studied: control (n = 5, sham surgery control (n = 5, chronic kidney disease control (n = 4, chronic kidney disease injected with 0.5 mmol/kg body weight of Omniscan 3 days per week, for a total of 10 injections (n = 8, and chronic kidney disease with Omniscan plus deferiprone, 125 mg/kg, in drinking water (n = 9. Deferiprone was continued for 16 weeks until the end of the experiment. Mice with chronic kidney disease injected with Omniscan developed skin changes characteristic of nephrogenic systemic fibrosis including hair loss, reddening, ulceration, and skin tightening by 10 to 16 weeks. Histopathological sections demonstrated dermal fibrosis with increased skin thickness (0.25±0.06 mm, sham; 0.34±+0.3 mm, Omniscan-injected. Additionally, we observed an increase in tissue infiltration of ferroportin-expressing, fibrocyte-like cells accompanied by tissue iron accumulation in the skin of the Omniscan-treated mice. The deferiprone-treated group had significantly decreased skin thickness (p<0.05 and significantly decreased dermal fibrosis compared to the Omniscan-only group. In addition, iron chelation prevented tissue infiltration of ferroportin-expressing, fibrocyte-like cells. Our in vitro experiments demonstrated that exposure to Omniscan resulted in the release of catalytic iron and this was prevented by the iron chelator

  8. The Digital Astronaut Project Bone Remodeling Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pennline, James A.; Mulugeta, Lealem; Lewandowski, Beth E.; Thompson, William K.; Sibonga, Jean D.

    2014-01-01

    Under the conditions of microgravity, astronauts lose bone mass at a rate of 1% to 2% a month, particularly in the lower extremities such as the proximal femur: (1) The most commonly used countermeasure against bone loss has been prescribed exercise, (2) However, current exercise countermeasures do not completely eliminate bone loss in long duration, 4 to 6 months, spaceflight, (3,4) leaving the astronaut susceptible to early onset osteoporosis and a greater risk of fracture later in their lives. The introduction of the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device, coupled with improved nutrition, has further minimized the 4 to 6 month bone loss. But further work is needed to implement optimal exercise prescriptions, and (5) In this light, NASA's Digital Astronaut Project (DAP) is working with NASA physiologists to implement well-validated computational models that can help understand the mechanisms of bone demineralization in microgravity, and enhance exercise countermeasure development.

  9. Divergent projections of future land use in the United States arising from different models and scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohl, Terry L.; Wimberly, Michael; Radeloff, Volker C.; Theobald, David M.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.

    2016-01-01

    A variety of land-use and land-cover (LULC) models operating at scales from local to global have been developed in recent years, including a number of models that provide spatially explicit, multi-class LULC projections for the conterminous United States. This diversity of modeling approaches raises the question: how consistent are their projections of future land use? We compared projections from six LULC modeling applications for the United States and assessed quantitative, spatial, and conceptual inconsistencies. Each set of projections provided multiple scenarios covering a period from roughly 2000 to 2050. Given the unique spatial, thematic, and temporal characteristics of each set of projections, individual projections were aggregated to a common set of basic, generalized LULC classes (i.e., cropland, pasture, forest, range, and urban) and summarized at the county level across the conterminous United States. We found very little agreement in projected future LULC trends and patterns among the different models. Variability among scenarios for a given model was generally lower than variability among different models, in terms of both trends in the amounts of basic LULC classes and their projected spatial patterns. Even when different models assessed the same purported scenario, model projections varied substantially. Projections of agricultural trends were often far above the maximum historical amounts, raising concerns about the realism of the projections. Comparisons among models were hindered by major discrepancies in categorical definitions, and suggest a need for standardization of historical LULC data sources. To capture a broader range of uncertainties, ensemble modeling approaches are also recommended. However, the vast inconsistencies among LULC models raise questions about the theoretical and conceptual underpinnings of current modeling approaches. Given the substantial effects that land-use change can have on ecological and societal processes, there

  10. The Radio Language Arts Project: adapting the radio mathematics model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, P R

    1985-01-01

    Kenya's Radio Language Arts Project, directed by the Academy for Educational Development in cooperation with the Kenya Institute of Education in 1980-85, sought to teach English to rural school children in grades 1-3 through use of an intensive, radio-based instructional system. Daily 1/2 hour lessons are broadcast throughout the school year and supported by teachers and print materials. The project further was aimed at testing the feasibility of adaptation of the successful Nicaraguan Radio Math Project to a new subject area. Difficulties were encountered in articulating a language curriculum with the precision required for a media-based instructional system. Also a challenge was defining the acceptable regional standard for pronunciation and grammar; British English was finally selected. An important modification of the Radio Math model concerned the role of the teacher. While Radio Math sought to reduce the teacher's responsibilities during the broadcast, Radio Language Arts teachers played an important instructional role during the English lesson broadcasts by providing translation and checks on work. Evaluations of the Radio language Arts Project suggest significant gains in speaking, listening, and reading skills as well as high levels of satisfaction on the part of parents and teachers.

  11. Squares of different sizes: effect of geographical projection on model parameter estimates in species distribution modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budic, Lara; Didenko, Gregor; Dormann, Carsten F

    2016-01-01

    In species distribution analyses, environmental predictors and distribution data for large spatial extents are often available in long-lat format, such as degree raster grids. Long-lat projections suffer from unequal cell sizes, as a degree of longitude decreases in length from approximately 110 km at the equator to 0 km at the poles. Here we investigate whether long-lat and equal-area projections yield similar model parameter estimates, or result in a consistent bias. We analyzed the environmental effects on the distribution of 12 ungulate species with a northern distribution, as models for these species should display the strongest effect of projectional distortion. Additionally we choose four species with entirely continental distributions to investigate the effect of incomplete cell coverage at the coast. We expected that including model weights proportional to the actual cell area should compensate for the observed bias in model coefficients, and similarly that using land coverage of a cell should decrease bias in species with coastal distribution. As anticipated, model coefficients were different between long-lat and equal-area projections. Having progressively smaller and a higher number of cells with increasing latitude influenced the importance of parameters in models, increased the sample size for the northernmost parts of species ranges, and reduced the subcell variability of those areas. However, this bias could be largely removed by weighting long-lat cells by the area they cover, and marginally by correcting for land coverage. Overall we found little effect of using long-lat rather than equal-area projections in our analysis. The fitted relationship between environmental parameters and occurrence probability differed only very little between the two projection types. We still recommend using equal-area projections to avoid possible bias. More importantly, our results suggest that the cell area and the proportion of a cell covered by land should be

  12. Introduction to Financial Projection Models. Business Management Instructional Software.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pomeroy, Robert W., III

    This guidebook and teacher's guide accompany a personal computer software program and introduce the key elements of financial projection modeling to project the financial statements of an industrial enterprise. The student will then build a model on an electronic spreadsheet. The guidebook teaches the purpose of a financial model and the steps…

  13. Modeling Uncertainty when Estimating IT Projects Costs

    OpenAIRE

    Winter, Michel; Mirbel, Isabelle; Crescenzo, Pierre

    2014-01-01

    In the current economic context, optimizing projects' cost is an obligation for a company to remain competitive in its market. Introducing statistical uncertainty in cost estimation is a good way to tackle the risk of going too far while minimizing the project budget: it allows the company to determine the best possible trade-off between estimated cost and acceptable risk. In this paper, we present new statistical estimators derived from the way IT companies estimate the projects' costs. In t...

  14. Downplaying model power in IT project work

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richter, Anne; Buhl, Henrik

    2004-01-01

    Executives and information technology specialists often manage IT projects in project teams. Integrative IT systems provide opportunities to manage and restructure work functions, but the process of change often causes serious problems in implementation and diffusion. A central issue in the resea......Executives and information technology specialists often manage IT projects in project teams. Integrative IT systems provide opportunities to manage and restructure work functions, but the process of change often causes serious problems in implementation and diffusion. A central issue...... possible to put issues such as team functions and quality of work on the agenda. Simultaneously, participation competencies seem to have been enhanced....

  15. Dynamic Damage Modeling for IRAC Simulations Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — NASA's Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control (IRAC) Project, Preliminary Technical Plan Summary identifies several causal and contributing factors that can lead to...

  16. 新药创制专项经费管理与建议%Management and suggestion of new drug major project funds

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    叶仙蓉

    2013-01-01

    National Science and Technology Major Project for New Drug was officially launched in 2008. And special funds management system was issued. From the view of management personnel in the paper, the overview of the special funds was introduced about account form, funds, personnel of reward by analyzing the difference between special funds and other science and technology plan. Appropriate management system and procedure was developed according to special funds management system in IMM. Then suggestion was put forward in the process of project implementation.%"重大新药创制"科技重大专项2008年正式启动实施,并同时颁布了重大专项经费管理办法.本文从科研管理人员的角度,通过分析专项经费与国内其他科技计划经费管理的区别,介绍了重大专项经费管理的资助方式、账户形式、经费组成、人员奖励等方面的总体概况.药物所根据专项管理办法的要求,制定了本单位的专项经费管理制度和程序,并针对课题实施过程中发现的问题提出相应的建议.

  17. Enterprise Projects Set Risk Element Transmission Chaotic Genetic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cunbin Li

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available In order to research projects set risk transfer process and improve risk management efficiency in projects management, combining chaos theory and genetic algorithm, put forward enterprise projects set risk element transmission chaos genetic model. Using logistic chaos mapping and chebyshev chaos mapping mixture, constructed a hybrid chaotic mapping system. The steps of adopting hybrid chaos mapping for genetic operation include projects set initialization, calculation of fitness, selection, crossover and mutation operators, fitness adjustment and condition judgment. The results showed that the model can simulate enterprise projects set risk transmission process very well and it also provides the basis for the enterprise managers to make decisions.

  18. Effects of climate model interdependency on the uncertainty quantification of extreme rainfall projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Madsen, H.; Rosbjerg, Dan;

    Changes in rainfall extremes under climate change conditions are subject to numerous uncertainties. One of the most important uncertainties arises from the inherent uncertainty in climate models. In recent years, many efforts have been made in creating large multi-model ensembles of both Regional...... Climate Models (RCMs) and General Circulation Models (GCMs). These multi-model ensembles provide the information needed to estimate probabilistic climate change projections. Several probabilistic methods have been suggested. One common assumption in most of these methods is that the climate models...... of accounting for the climate model interdependency when estimating the uncertainty of climate change projections....

  19. Multi-Agent Modeling in Managing Six Sigma Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Y. Chau

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a multi-agent model is proposed for considering the human resources factor in decision making in relation to the six sigma project. The proposed multi-agent system is expected to increase the acccuracy of project prioritization and to stabilize the human resources service level. A simulation of the proposed multiagent model is conducted. The results show that a multi-agent model which takes into consideration human resources when making decisions about project selection and project team formation is important in enabling efficient and effective project management. The multi-agent modeling approach provides an alternative approach for improving communication and the autonomy of six sigma projects in business organizations.

  20. IS Project Management and Risk Escalation: Towards A Dynamic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela Y Lin

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available While the number of substantive investments in IS projects continues to grow, the number of failing projects also continues to increase at an alarming rate. Both the academic and industry literature suggests that inadequate attention to risk and its management continues to be a key factor in project failure. The typical approach taken is to identify and map potential risks, to act as a planning and diagnostic tool, and to prepare a contingency plan has been a factor-based approach. While it remains a valuable tool for mapping anticipated risks the factor-based approach is less effective when viewing project risks as emergent phenomena that un-fold during the course of the project, and require ongoing attention and risk management. In-formed by a case study of a failing university IS development project, this paper focuses on the phenomenon of risk escalation. The case findings suggest that rather than being defined ahead of the project, some project risks may emerge during the project as a consequence of escalation factors that were both antecedent to and a consequence of actual risk management decisions. The article concludes with suggestions as to how project managers can better man-age the emergent rather than static nature of risk phenomena.

  1. A Team Building Model for Software Engineering Courses Term Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahin, Yasar Guneri

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a new model for team building, which enables teachers to build coherent teams rapidly and fairly for the term projects of software engineering courses. Moreover, the model can also be used to build teams for any type of project, if the team member candidates are students, or if they are inexperienced on a certain subject. The…

  2. A Team Building Model for Software Engineering Courses Term Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahin, Yasar Guneri

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a new model for team building, which enables teachers to build coherent teams rapidly and fairly for the term projects of software engineering courses. Moreover, the model can also be used to build teams for any type of project, if the team member candidates are students, or if they are inexperienced on a certain subject. The…

  3. Can fire atlas data improve species distribution model projections?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crimmins, Shawn M; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Mynsberge, Alison R; Safford, Hugh D

    2014-07-01

    Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used in studies of climate change impacts, yet are often criticized for failing to incorporate disturbance processes that can influence species distributions. Here we use two temporally independent data sets of vascular plant distributions, climate data, and fire atlas data to examine the influence of disturbance history on SDM projection accuracy through time in the mountain ranges of California, USA. We used hierarchical partitioning to examine the influence of fire occurrence on the distribution of 144 vascular plant species and built a suite of SDMs to examine how the inclusion of fire-related predictors (fire occurrence and departure from historical fire return intervals) affects SDM projection accuracy. Fire occurrence provided the least explanatory power among predictor variables for predicting species' distributions, but provided improved explanatory power for species whose regeneration is tied closely to fire. A measure of the departure from historic fire return interval had greater explanatory power for calibrating modern SDMs than fire occurrence. This variable did not improve internal model accuracy for most species, although it did provide marginal improvement to models for species adapted to high-frequency fire regimes. Fire occurrence and fire return interval departure were strongly related to the climatic covariates used in SDM development, suggesting that improvements in model accuracy may not be expected due to limited additional explanatory power. Our results suggest that the inclusion of coarse-scale measures of disturbance in SDMs may not be necessary to predict species distributions under climate change, particularly for disturbance processes that are largely mediated by climate.

  4. A Multi-objective model for selection of projects to finance new enterprise SMEs in Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.R. Coronado-Hernández

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This paper presents a multi-objective programming model for selection of Projects for Financing New Enterprise SMEs in Colombia with objectivity and transparency in every call. Approach: The model has four social objectives, subject to constraint budget and to the requirements of every summons. The resolution procedure for the model is based on principles of goal programming. Findings: Selection projects subject to the impact within the country. Research limitations: The selection of the projects is restricted by a legal framework, the terms of reference and the budget of the summons. Practical implications: The projects must be viable according to the characteristics of every summons. Originality/value: The suggested model offers an alternative for entities that need to evaluate projects of co-financing for the managerial development of the SMEs with more objectivity and transparency in the assignment of resources.

  5. Bayesian-based Project Monitoring: Framework Development and Model Testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Budi Hartono

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available During project implementation, risk becomes an integral part of project monitoring. Therefore. a tool that could dynamically include elements of risk in project progress monitoring is needed. This objective of this study is to develop a general framework that addresses such a concern. The developed framework consists of three interrelated major building blocks, namely: Risk Register (RR, Bayesian Network (BN, and Project Time Networks (PTN for dynamic project monitoring. RR is used to list and to categorize identified project risks. PTN is utilized for modeling the relationship between project activities. BN is used to reflect the interdependence among risk factors and to bridge RR and PTN. A residential development project is chosen as a working example and the result shows that the proposed framework has been successfully applied. The specific model of the development project is also successfully developed and is used to monitor the project progress. It is shown in this study that the proposed BN-based model provides superior performance in terms of forecast accuracy compared to the extant models.

  6. A multi-scale distribution model for non-equilibrium populations suggests resource limitation in an endangered rodent.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William T Bean

    Full Text Available Species distributions are known to be limited by biotic and abiotic factors at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Species distribution models, however, frequently assume a population at equilibrium in both time and space. Studies of habitat selection have repeatedly shown the difficulty of estimating resource selection if the scale or extent of analysis is incorrect. Here, we present a multi-step approach to estimate the realized and potential distribution of the endangered giant kangaroo rat. First, we estimate the potential distribution by modeling suitability at a range-wide scale using static bioclimatic variables. We then examine annual changes in extent at a population-level. We define "available" habitat based on the total suitable potential distribution at the range-wide scale. Then, within the available habitat, model changes in population extent driven by multiple measures of resource availability. By modeling distributions for a population with robust estimates of population extent through time, and ecologically relevant predictor variables, we improved the predictive ability of SDMs, as well as revealed an unanticipated relationship between population extent and precipitation at multiple scales. At a range-wide scale, the best model indicated the giant kangaroo rat was limited to areas that received little to no precipitation in the summer months. In contrast, the best model for shorter time scales showed a positive relation with resource abundance, driven by precipitation, in the current and previous year. These results suggest that the distribution of the giant kangaroo rat was limited to the wettest parts of the drier areas within the study region. This multi-step approach reinforces the differing relationship species may have with environmental variables at different scales, provides a novel method for defining "available" habitat in habitat selection studies, and suggests a way to create distribution models at spatial and

  7. BUSINESS PROCESS MODELLING FOR PROJECTS COSTS MANAGEMENT IN AN ORGANIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PĂTRAŞCU AURELIA

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Using Information Technologies in organizations represents an evident progress for company, money economy, time economy and generates value for the organization. In this paper the author proposes to model the business processes for an organization that manages projects costs, because modelling is an important part of any software development process. Using software for projects costs management is essential because it allows the management of all operations according to the established parameters, the management of the projects groups, as well as the management of the projects and subprojects, at different complexity levels.

  8. Validation of HEDR models. Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Napier, B.A.; Simpson, J.C.; Eslinger, P.W.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.; Thiede, M.E.; Walters, W.H.

    1994-05-01

    The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project has developed a set of computer models for estimating the possible radiation doses that individuals may have received from past Hanford Site operations. This document describes the validation of these models. In the HEDR Project, the model validation exercise consisted of comparing computational model estimates with limited historical field measurements and experimental measurements that are independent of those used to develop the models. The results of any one test do not mean that a model is valid. Rather, the collection of tests together provide a level of confidence that the HEDR models are valid.

  9. Wake models developed during the Wind Shadow project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larsen, S.; Ott, S.; Pena, A.; Berg, J.; Nielsen, M.; Rathmann, O.; Joergensen, H.

    2011-11-15

    The Wind Shadow project has developed and validated improved models for determining the wakes losses, and thereby the array efficiency of very large, closely packed wind farms. The rationale behind the project has been that the existing software has been covering these types of wind farms poorly, both with respect to the densely packed turbines and the large fetches needed to describe the collective shadow effects of one farm to the next. Further the project has developed the necessary software for the use of the models. Guidelines with recommendations for the use of the models are included in the model deliverables. The project has been carried out as a collaborative project between Risoe DTU, DONG, Vattenfall, DNV and VESTAS, and it has been financed by energinet.dk grant no. 10086. (Author)

  10. Food for thought: Overconfidence in model projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, Keith; Neuheimer, Anna; Andersen, Ken Haste

    2013-01-01

    There is considerable public and political interest in the state of marine ecosystems and fisheries, but the reliability of some recent projections has been called into question. New information about declining fish stocks, loss of biodiversity, climate impacts, and management failure is frequently...

  11. Rapid Energy Modeling Workflow Demonstration Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    CONTACT Point of Contact Organization Phone E-Mail Role In Project John Sullivan Autodesk, Inc. 111 McInnis Parkway San Rafael, CA 94903...McInnis Parkway San Rafael, CA 94903 Phone: 703-827-7213 E-Mail: john.rittling@autodesk.com Collaborator Mark Frost Autodesk, Inc. 111 McInnis

  12. Management of information in development projects – a proposed integrated model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Bester

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available The first section of the article focuses on the need for development in Africa and the specific challenges of development operations. It describes the need for a holistic and integrated information management model as part of the project management body of knowledge aimed at managing the information flow between communities and development project teams. It is argued that information, and access to information, is crucial in development projects and can therefore be seen as a critical success factor in any development project. In the second section of the article, the three information areas of the holistic and integrated information management model are described. In the section thereafter we suggest roles and actions for information managers to facilitate information processes integral to the model. These processes seek to create a developing information community that aligns itself with the development project, and supports and sustains it.

  13. Data-driven honeybee antennal lobe model suggests how stimulus-onset asynchrony can aid odour segregation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowotny, Thomas; Stierle, Jacob S; Galizia, C Giovanni; Szyszka, Paul

    2013-11-01

    Insects have a remarkable ability to identify and track odour sources in multi-odour backgrounds. Recent behavioural experiments show that this ability relies on detecting millisecond stimulus asynchronies between odourants that originate from different sources. Honeybees, Apis mellifera, are able to distinguish mixtures where both odourants arrive at the same time (synchronous mixtures) from those where odourant onsets are staggered (asynchronous mixtures) down to an onset delay of only 6ms. In this paper we explore this surprising ability in a model of the insects' primary olfactory brain area, the antennal lobe. We hypothesize that a winner-take-all inhibitory network of local neurons in the antennal lobe has a symmetry-breaking effect, such that the response pattern in projection neurons to an asynchronous mixture is different from the response pattern to the corresponding synchronous mixture for an extended period of time beyond the initial odourant onset where the two mixture conditions actually differ. The prolonged difference between response patterns to synchronous and asynchronous mixtures could facilitate odoursegregation in downstream circuits of the olfactory pathway. We present a detailed data-driven model of the bee antennal lobe that reproduces a large data set of experimentally observed physiological odour responses, successfully implements the hypothesised symmetry-breaking mechanism and so demonstrates that this mechanism is consistent with our current knowledge of the olfactory circuits in the bee brain. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled Neural Coding 2012.

  14. Multilevel modelling of mechanical properties of textile composites: ITOOL Project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Den Broucke, Bjorn; Drechsler, Klaus; Hanisch, Vera; Hartung, Daniel; Ivanov, Dimitry S.; Koissin, Vitaly E.; Lomov, Stepan V.; Middendorf, Peter

    2007-01-01

    The paper presents an overview of the multi-level modelling of textile composites in the ITOOL project, focusing on the models of textile reinforcements, which serve as a basis for micromechanical models of textile composites on the unit cell level. The modelling is performed using finite element an

  15. Forecasting project schedule performance using probabilistic and deterministic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.A. Abdel Azeem

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Earned value management (EVM was originally developed for cost management and has not widely been used for forecasting project duration. In addition, EVM based formulas for cost or schedule forecasting are still deterministic and do not provide any information about the range of possible outcomes and the probability of meeting the project objectives. The objective of this paper is to develop three models to forecast the estimated duration at completion. Two of these models are deterministic; earned value (EV and earned schedule (ES models. The third model is a probabilistic model and developed based on Kalman filter algorithm and earned schedule management. Hence, the accuracies of the EV, ES and Kalman Filter Forecasting Model (KFFM through the different project periods will be assessed and compared with the other forecasting methods such as the Critical Path Method (CPM, which makes the time forecast at activity level by revising the actual reporting data for each activity at a certain data date. A case study project is used to validate the results of the three models. Hence, the best model is selected based on the lowest average percentage of error. The results showed that the KFFM developed in this study provides probabilistic prediction bounds of project duration at completion and can be applied through the different project periods with smaller errors than those observed in EV and ES forecasting models.

  16. Expertly validated models and phylogenetically-controlled analysis suggests responses to climate change are related to species traits in the order lagomorpha.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katie Leach

    Full Text Available Climate change during the past five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems, and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs have been used widely to project changes in species' bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical, and habitat variables for all 87 lagomorph species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current models and only those deemed 'modellable' within our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species. Phylogenetically-controlled regressions were used to test whether species traits correlated with predicted responses to climate change. Climate change is likely to impact more than two-thirds of lagomorph species, with leporids (rabbits, hares, and jackrabbits likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov's Pika (Ochotona koslowi. Smaller-bodied species were more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing little poleward movement, and fecund species were more likely to shift latitudinally and elevationally. Our results suggest that species traits may be important indicators of future climate change and we believe multi-species approaches, as demonstrated here, are likely to lead to more effective mitigation measures and conservation management. We strongly advocate studies minimising data gaps in our knowledge of

  17. Building Context with Tumor Growth Modeling Projects in Differential Equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beier, Julie C.; Gevertz, Jana L.; Howard, Keith E.

    2015-01-01

    The use of modeling projects serves to integrate, reinforce, and extend student knowledge. Here we present two projects related to tumor growth appropriate for a first course in differential equations. They illustrate the use of problem-based learning to reinforce and extend course content via a writing or research experience. Here we discuss…

  18. Improving Project Management Using Formal Models and Architectures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahn, Theodore; Sturken, Ian

    2011-01-01

    This talk discusses the advantages formal modeling and architecture brings to project management. These emerging technologies have both great potential and challenges for improving information available for decision-making. The presentation covers standards, tools and cultural issues needing consideration, and includes lessons learned from projects the presenters have worked on.

  19. Toward more realistic projections of soil carbon dynamics by Earth system models: SOIL CARBON MODELING

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luo, Yiqi; Ahlstrom, Anders; Allison, Steven D.; Batjes, Niels H.; Brovkin, Victor; Carvalhais, N.; Chappell, Adrian; Ciais, Philippe; Davidson, Eric A.; Finzi, Adien; Georgiou, Katerina; Guenet, Bertrand; Hararuk, Oleksandra; Harden, Jennifer W.; He, Yujie; Hopkins, Francesca; Jiang, Lifen; Koven, C.; Jackson, Robert B.; Jones, Chris D.; Lara, Mark J.; Liang, Junyi; McGuire, A. David; Parton, William J.; Peng, Changhui; Randerson, J.; Salazar, Alejandro; Sierra , Carlos A.; Smith, Matthew J.; Tian, Hanqin; Todd-Brown, Katherine EO; Torn, Margaret S.; van Groenigen, Kees Jan; Wang, Ying Ping; West, Tristram O.; Wei, Yaxing; Wieder, William R.; Xia, Jianyang; Xu, Xia; Xu, Xiaofeng; Zhou, Tao

    2016-01-21

    Soil carbon (C) is a critical component of Earth system models (ESMs) and its diverse representations are a major source of the large spread across models in the terrestrial C sink from the 3rd to 5th assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Improving soil C projections is of a high priority for Earth system modeling in the future IPCC and other assessments. To achieve this goal, we suggest that (1) model structures should reflect real-world processes, (2) parameters should be calibrated to match model outputs with observations, and (3) external forcing variables should accurately prescribe the environmental conditions that soils experience. Firstly, most soil C cycle models simulate C input from litter production and C release through decomposition. The latter process has traditionally been represented by 1st-order decay functions, regulated primarily by temperature, moisture, litter quality, and soil texture. While this formulation well captures macroscopic SOC dynamics, better understanding is needed of their underlying mechanisms as related to microbial processes, depth-dependent environmental controls, and other processes that strongly affect soil C dynamics. Secondly, incomplete use of observations in model parameterization is a major cause of bias in soil C projections from ESMs. Optimal parameter calibration with both pool- and flux-based datasets through data assimilation is among the highest priorities for near-term research to reduce biases among ESMs. Thirdly, external variables are represented inconsistently among ESMs, leading to differences in modeled soil C dynamics. We recommend the implementation of traceability analyses to identify how external variables and model parameterizations influence SOC dynamics in different ESMs. Overall, projections of the terrestrial C sink can be substantially improved when reliable datasets are available to select the most representative model structure, constrain parameters, and

  20. Modelling Virus and Antibody Dynamics during Dengue Virus Infection Suggests a Role for Antibody in Virus Clearance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannah E Clapham

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Dengue is an infection of increasing global importance, yet uncertainty remains regarding critical aspects of its virology, immunology and epidemiology. One unanswered question is how infection is controlled and cleared during a dengue infection. Antibody is thought to play a role, but little past work has examined the kinetics of both virus and antibody during natural infections. We present data on multiple virus and antibody titres measurements recorded sequentially during infection from 53 Vietnamese dengue patients. We fit mechanistic mathematical models of the dynamics of viral replication and the host immune response to these data. These models fit the data well. The model with antibody removing virus fits the data best, but with a role suggested for ADCC or other infected cell clearance mechanisms. Our analysis therefore shows that the observed viral and antibody kinetics are consistent with antibody playing a key role in controlling viral replication. This work gives quantitative insight into the relationship between antibody levels and the efficiency of viral clearance. It will inform the future development of mechanistic models of how vaccines and antivirals might modify the course of natural dengue infection.

  1. Eliminating both canonical and short-patch mismatch repair in Drosophila melanogaster suggests a new meiotic recombination model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crown, K Nicole; McMahan, Susan; Sekelsky, Jeff

    2014-09-01

    In most meiotic systems, recombination is essential to form connections between homologs that ensure their accurate segregation from one another. Meiotic recombination is initiated by DNA double-strand breaks that are repaired using the homologous chromosome as a template. Studies of recombination in budding yeast have led to a model in which most early repair intermediates are disassembled to produce noncrossovers. Selected repair events are stabilized so they can proceed to form double-Holliday junction (dHJ) intermediates, which are subsequently resolved into crossovers. This model is supported in yeast by physical isolation of recombination intermediates, but the extent to which it pertains to animals is unknown. We sought to test this model in Drosophila melanogaster by analyzing patterns of heteroduplex DNA (hDNA) in recombination products. Previous attempts to do this have relied on knocking out the canonical mismatch repair (MMR) pathway, but in both yeast and Drosophila the resulting recombination products are complex and difficult to interpret. We show that, in Drosophila, this complexity results from a secondary, short-patch MMR pathway that requires nucleotide excision repair. Knocking out both canonical and short-patch MMR reveals hDNA patterns that reveal that many noncrossovers arise after both ends of the break have engaged with the homolog. Patterns of hDNA in crossovers could be explained by biased resolution of a dHJ; however, considering the noncrossover and crossover results together suggests a model in which a two-end engagement intermediate with unligated HJs can be disassembled by a helicase to a produce noncrossover or nicked by a nuclease to produce a crossover. While some aspects of this model are similar to the model from budding yeast, production of both noncrossovers and crossovers from a single, late intermediate is a fundamental difference that has important implications for crossover control.

  2. Eliminating both canonical and short-patch mismatch repair in Drosophila melanogaster suggests a new meiotic recombination model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K Nicole Crown

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In most meiotic systems, recombination is essential to form connections between homologs that ensure their accurate segregation from one another. Meiotic recombination is initiated by DNA double-strand breaks that are repaired using the homologous chromosome as a template. Studies of recombination in budding yeast have led to a model in which most early repair intermediates are disassembled to produce noncrossovers. Selected repair events are stabilized so they can proceed to form double-Holliday junction (dHJ intermediates, which are subsequently resolved into crossovers. This model is supported in yeast by physical isolation of recombination intermediates, but the extent to which it pertains to animals is unknown. We sought to test this model in Drosophila melanogaster by analyzing patterns of heteroduplex DNA (hDNA in recombination products. Previous attempts to do this have relied on knocking out the canonical mismatch repair (MMR pathway, but in both yeast and Drosophila the resulting recombination products are complex and difficult to interpret. We show that, in Drosophila, this complexity results from a secondary, short-patch MMR pathway that requires nucleotide excision repair. Knocking out both canonical and short-patch MMR reveals hDNA patterns that reveal that many noncrossovers arise after both ends of the break have engaged with the homolog. Patterns of hDNA in crossovers could be explained by biased resolution of a dHJ; however, considering the noncrossover and crossover results together suggests a model in which a two-end engagement intermediate with unligated HJs can be disassembled by a helicase to a produce noncrossover or nicked by a nuclease to produce a crossover. While some aspects of this model are similar to the model from budding yeast, production of both noncrossovers and crossovers from a single, late intermediate is a fundamental difference that has important implications for crossover control.

  3. QMU in Integrated Spacecraft System Models Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ACTA and Sandia National Laboratories propose to quantify and propagate substructure modeling uncertainty for reduced-order substructure models to higher levels of...

  4. QMU in Integrated Spacecraft System Models Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ACTA and Sandia National Laboratories propose to quantify and propagate substructure modeling uncertainty for reduced-order substructure models to higher levels of...

  5. 农村水务工程建设绩效提升的几点设想%Several suggestions to improve the rural water project construction performance

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    金锡昌

    2014-01-01

    以农村水务工程建设为背景,对提升农村水务工程建设绩效的措施进行了研究,并从提高工程决策阶段工作质量、提高项目法人工程管理能力、加强工程政府监管等方面进行了阐述,对水务工程的建设具有重要意义。%Taking the rural water project construction as the background,this paper researched the measures to improve the rural water project construction performance,and made elaboration from improvement of the work quality in project decision-making stage,improvement of the pro-ject management ability of project legal person,strengthen the project government supervision and other aspects,had vital significance to water project construction.

  6. A Systematic Approach to Modelling Change Processes in Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahim Motawa

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Modelling change processes within construction projects isessential to implement changes efficiently. Incomplete informationon the project variables at the early stages of projects leads toinadequate knowledge of future states and imprecision arisingfrom ambiguity in project parameters. This lack of knowledge isconsidered among the main source of changes in construction.Change identification and evaluation, in addition to predictingits impacts on project parameters, can help in minimising thedisruptive effects of changes. This paper presents a systematicapproach to modelling change process within construction projectsthat helps improve change identification and evaluation. Theapproach represents the key decisions required to implementchanges. The requirements of an effective change processare presented first. The variables defined for efficient changeassessment and diagnosis are then presented. Assessmentof construction changes requires an analysis for the projectcharacteristics that lead to change and also analysis of therelationship between the change causes and effects. The paperconcludes that, at the early stages of a project, projects with a highlikelihood of change occurrence should have a control mechanismover the project characteristics that have high influence on theproject. It also concludes, for the relationship between changecauses and effects, the multiple causes of change should bemodelled in a way to enable evaluating the change effects moreaccurately. The proposed approach is the framework for tacklingsuch conclusions and can be used for evaluating change casesdepending on the available information at the early stages ofconstruction projects.

  7. Physics-Based Pneumatic Hammer Instability Model Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The objective of this project is to develop a physics-based pneumatic hammer instability model that accurately predicts the stability of hydrostatic bearings...

  8. Automation of Safety Analysis with SysML Models Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This project was a small proof-of-concept case study, generating SysML model information as a side effect of safety analysis. A prototype FMEA Assistant was...

  9. Final Project Report Load Modeling Transmission Research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lesieutre, Bernard [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Bravo, Richard [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Yinger, Robert [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Chassin, Dave [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Huang, Henry [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Lu, Ning [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Hiskens, Ian [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Venkataramanan, Giri [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2012-03-31

    The research presented in this report primarily focuses on improving power system load models to better represent their impact on system behavior. The previous standard load model fails to capture the delayed voltage recovery events that are observed in the Southwest and elsewhere. These events are attributed to stalled air conditioner units after a fault. To gain a better understanding of their role in these events and to guide modeling efforts, typical air conditioner units were testing in laboratories. Using data obtained from these extensive tests, new load models were developed to match air conditioner behavior. An air conditioner model is incorporated in the new WECC composite load model. These models are used in dynamic studies of the West and can impact power transfer limits for California. Unit-level and systemlevel solutions are proposed as potential solutions to the delayed voltage recovery problem.

  10. Cloud radiative effects and changes simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Sun-Hee; Kim, Ok-Yeon; Kim, Dongmin; Lee, Myong-In

    2017-07-01

    Using 32 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models, this study examines the veracity in the simulation of cloud amount and their radiative effects (CREs) in the historical run driven by observed external radiative forcing for 1850-2005, and their future changes in the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 scenario runs for 2006-2100. Validation metrics for the historical run are designed to examine the accuracy in the representation of spatial patterns for climatological mean, and annual and interannual variations of clouds and CREs. The models show large spread in the simulation of cloud amounts, specifically in the low cloud amount. The observed relationship between cloud amount and the controlling large-scale environment are also reproduced diversely by various models. Based on the validation metrics, four models—ACCESS1.0, ACCESS1.3, HadGEM2-CC, and HadGEM2-ES—are selected as best models, and the average of the four models performs more skillfully than the multimodel ensemble average. All models project global-mean SST warming at the increase of the greenhouse gases, but the magnitude varies across the simulations between 1 and 2 K, which is largely attributable to the difference in the change of cloud amount and distribution. The models that simulate more SST warming show a greater increase in the net CRE due to reduced low cloud and increased incoming shortwave radiation, particularly over the regions of marine boundary layer in the subtropics. Selected best-performing models project a significant reduction in global-mean cloud amount of about -0.99% K-1 and net radiative warming of 0.46 W m-2 K-1, suggesting a role of positive feedback to global warming.

  11. Organizational suggestion system in the era of holding by developing an innovative model : the case of bonyade ta avon holding in Iran(an applied model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meysam Ghasemi

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the popular ways of taking advantage of personnel creativity is through suggestionsystems. Our main question is how to implement suggestion system in holding with conglomeratestructure. The paper presents an innovative model that were named ITFSK Model with accordanceof Bonayade Taavone (a holding that has many companies and institutions with conglomeratestructure. ITFSK is a model that explains how participation management and suggestion system isimplemented effectively in huge Enterprises (holding and this approach brings continuousimprovement (kaizen and it impacts the productivity of these enterprises.The paper is based on field research and the research in Bonyade Tavan that has 22 companies and2 institutions that activity fields of the subholdings is very varied.Our model consists of five main parts such as ideas bank, think-tank, feedback, sharing ofknowledge and kaizen that was named ITFSK.Implementation of “Suggestion system” rules has immediate and significant effects on theproductivity of activities in the jobs, thus influencing the performance of processes in the analyzedorganization. Suggestion system can result in kaizen and innovation in environment oforganization.The model was used to implement and evaluate a suggestion system of holding with conglomeratedstructure. The application of the model to evaluate the suggestion system provided some goodinsights and highlighted some areas of improvement.

  12. Regression modeling of the North East Atlantic Spring Bloom suggests previously unrecognized biological roles for V and Mo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nick J Klein

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available In order to identify the biogeochemical parameters controlling pCO2, total chlorophyll a, and dimethylsulfide (DMS concentrations during the North East Atlantic Spring Bloom (NASB, we used previously unpublished particulate and dissolved elemental concentrations to construct several linear regression models; first by hypothesis-testing, and then with exhaustive stepwise linear regression followed by leave-one-out cross-validation. The field data was obtained along a latitudinal transect from the Azores Islands to the North Atlantic, and best-fit models (determined by lowest predictive error of up to three variables are presented. Total chlorophyll a is predicted best by biomass (POC, PON parameters and by pigments characteristic of picophytoplankton for the southern section of the sampling transect (from the Azores to the Rockhall-Hatton Plateau and coccolithophores in the northern portion (from the Rockhall-Hatton Plateau to the Denmark Strait. Both the pCO2 and DMS models included variables traditionally associated with the development of the NASB such as mixed-layer depth and with Fe, Si and P-deplete conditions (dissolved Fe, dissolved and biogenic silica, dissolved PO43-. However, the regressions for pCO2 and DMS also include intracellular V and Mo concentrations, respectively. Mo is involved in DMS production as a cofactor in dimethylsulfoxide reductase. No significant biological role for V has yet been determined, although intracellular V is significantly correlated (p-value < 0.05 with biogenic silica (R2 = 0.72 and total chlorophyll a (R2 = 0.49 while the same is not true for its biogeochemical analogue Mo, suggesting active uptake of V by phytoplankton. Our statistical analysis suggests these two lesser-studied metals may play more important roles in bloom dynamics than previously thought, and highlights a need for studies focused on determining their potential biological requirements and cell quotas.

  13. Numerical modeling in photonic crystals integrated technology: the COPERNICUS Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malaguti, Stefania; Armaroli, Andrea; Bellanca, Gaetano

    2011-01-01

    Photonic crystals will play a fundamental role in the future of optical communications. The relevance of the numerical modeling for the success of this technology is assessed by using some examples concerning the experience of the COPERNICUS Project.......Photonic crystals will play a fundamental role in the future of optical communications. The relevance of the numerical modeling for the success of this technology is assessed by using some examples concerning the experience of the COPERNICUS Project....

  14. Numerical modeling in photonic crystals integrated technology: the COPERNICUS Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malaguti, Stefania; Armaroli, Andrea; Bellanca, Gaetano

    2011-01-01

    Photonic crystals will play a fundamental role in the future of optical communications. The relevance of the numerical modeling for the success of this technology is assessed by using some examples concerning the experience of the COPERNICUS Project.......Photonic crystals will play a fundamental role in the future of optical communications. The relevance of the numerical modeling for the success of this technology is assessed by using some examples concerning the experience of the COPERNICUS Project....

  15. On Helical Projection and Its Application in Screw Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riliang Liu

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available As helical surfaces, in their many and varied forms, are finding more and more applications in engineering, new approaches to their efficient design and manufacture are desired. To that end, the helical projection method that uses curvilinear projection lines to map a space object to a plane is examined in this paper, focusing on its mathematical model and characteristics in terms of graphical representation of helical objects. A number of interesting projective properties are identified in regard to straight lines, curves, and planes, and then the method is further investigated with respect to screws. The result shows that the helical projection of a cylindrical screw turns out to be a Jordan curve, which is determined by the screw's axial profile and number of flights. Based on the projection theory, a practical approach to the modeling of screws and helical surfaces is proposed and illustrated with examples, and its possible application in screw manufacturing is discussed.

  16. INFORMATIONAL-ANALYTIC MODEL OF REGIONAL PROJECT PORTFOLIO FORMING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Osaulenko

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the problem of regional project portfolio management in context of interaction of the regional development’s motive forces interaction. The features of innovation development on the regional level and their influence on the portfolio forming process considered. An existing approaches for portfolio modelling and formal criterion of the projects selection analyzed. At the same time the organization of key subjects of regional development interaction described. The aim of the article is investigation of informational aspects of project selection in process of the main development’s motive forces interaction and analytic model of portfolio filling validation. At that an inclination of stakeholders to reach a consensus taking into account. The Triple Helix conception using for concrete definition of the functions of the regional development’s motive forces. Asserted, that any component of innovation triad «science–business–government» can be an initiator of regional project, but it need to support two another components. Non-power interaction theory using for investigation of subjects interrelations in process of joint activity proposed. One of the key concept of the theory is information distance. It characterizes inclination of the parties to reach a consensus based on statistics. Projections of information distance onto directions of development axes using for more accurate definition of mutual positions in the all lines of development proposed. Another important parameter of the model which has an influence on the project support is awareness of stakeholders about it. Formalized description of project in the form of fast set of parameters proposes to use for determination of the awareness. The weighting coefficients for each parameter by expert way. Simultaneously the precision of the each parameter setting for all presented projects determines. On the base of appointed values of information distances and

  17. Effects of climate model interdependency on the uncertainty quantification of extreme reinfall projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Madsen, H.; Rosbjerg, Dan;

    The inherent uncertainty in climate models is one of the most important uncertainties in climate change impact studies. In recent years, several uncertainty quantification methods based on multi-model ensembles have been suggested. Most of these methods assume that the climate models...... are independent. This study investigates the validity of this assumption and its effects on the estimated probabilistic projections of the changes in the 95% quantile of wet days. The methodology is divided in two main parts. First, the interdependency of the ENSEMBLES RCMs is estimated using the methodology...... developed by Pennell and Reichler (2011). The results show that the projections from the ENSEMBLES RCMs cannot be assumed independent. This result is then used to estimate the uncertainty in climate model projections. A Bayesian approach has been developed using the procedure suggested by Tebaldi et al...

  18. A decision model for E and P petroleum projects using real options and preference theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lima, Gabriel A.C. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias. Lab. de Analise Geoconomica (LAGE); Suslick, Saul B. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias. Centro de Estudo do Petroleo; Nepomuceno Filho, Francisco [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2004-07-01

    The results from Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) are limited as a tool for decision-making in the petroleum industry because they do not properly take into account three important features of the modern investments: uncertainty, irreversibility, timing and corporation's risk-aversion. Recent developments in real options and preference theories have allowed decision-makers to employ these two approaches separately in the process of valuation and decision-making of risky projects. This paper presents a model for valuation and decision-making integrating discounted cash flow, real options and reference theory. This model seems to be suitable to answer to the following questions: what is the current value of an oil project? what is the optimal working interest in this project venture?; what is criteria to select projects considering investment irreversibility, uncertainty and timing to implement decisions? This model is applied to valuation and decision-making of a project to produce oil from a deep-water reservoir and its results are compared to those of the traditional approach. NPV model suggest that, as the project value is above its investment cost, the corporation should invest immediately and take 100% working interest in the project. Contrarily, the integrated model suggest the corporation should invest as long as project current value is as large as 1.85 times investment cost and should take only 44.38% working interest, whereas partners fund and acquire the remaining 55,62% of the project. In general, results indicate that NPV tend to pay more attention on return and does not account properly for risk. Then, as the uncertainty or volatile of strategic variables increases, the two models give more divergent results. (author)

  19. The accuracy of matrix population model projections for coniferous trees in the Sierra Nevada, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Mantgem, P.J.; Stephenson, N.L.

    2005-01-01

    1 We assess the use of simple, size-based matrix population models for projecting population trends for six coniferous tree species in the Sierra Nevada, California. We used demographic data from 16 673 trees in 15 permanent plots to create 17 separate time-invariant, density-independent population projection models, and determined differences between trends projected from initial surveys with a 5-year interval and observed data during two subsequent 5-year time steps. 2 We detected departures from the assumptions of the matrix modelling approach in terms of strong growth autocorrelations. We also found evidence of observation errors for measurements of tree growth and, to a more limited degree, recruitment. Loglinear analysis provided evidence of significant temporal variation in demographic rates for only two of the 17 populations. 3 Total population sizes were strongly predicted by model projections, although population dynamics were dominated by carryover from the previous 5-year time step (i.e. there were few cases of recruitment or death). Fractional changes to overall population sizes were less well predicted. Compared with a null model and a simple demographic model lacking size structure, matrix model projections were better able to predict total population sizes, although the differences were not statistically significant. Matrix model projections were also able to predict short-term rates of survival, growth and recruitment. Mortality frequencies were not well predicted. 4 Our results suggest that simple size-structured models can accurately project future short-term changes for some tree populations. However, not all populations were well predicted and these simple models would probably become more inaccurate over longer projection intervals. The predictive ability of these models would also be limited by disturbance or other events that destabilize demographic rates. ?? 2005 British Ecological Society.

  20. Mutational Analyses of HAMP Helices Suggest a Dynamic Bundle Model of Input-Output Signaling in Chemoreceptors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Qin; Ames, Peter; Parkinson, John S.

    2009-01-01

    SUMMARY To test the gearbox model of HAMP signaling in the E. coli serine receptor, Tsr, we generated a series of amino acid replacements at each residue of the AS1 and AS2 helices. The residues most critical for Tsr function defined hydrophobic packing faces consistent with a 4-helix bundle. Suppression patterns of helix lesions conformed to the the predicted packing layers in the bundle. Although the properties and patterns of most AS1 and AS2 lesions were consistent with both proposed gearbox structures, some mutational features specifically indicate the functional importance of an x-da bundle over an alternative a-d bundle. These genetic data suggest that HAMP signaling could simply involve changes in the stability of its x-da bundle. We propose that Tsr HAMP controls output signals by modulating destabilizing phase clashes between the AS2 helices and the adjoining kinase control helices. Our model further proposes that chemoeffectors regulate HAMP bundle stability through a control cable connection between the transmembrane segments and AS1 helices. Attractant stimuli, which cause inward piston displacements in chemoreceptors, should reduce cable tension, thereby stabilizing the HAMP bundle. This study shows how transmembrane signaling and HAMP input-output control could occur without the helix rotations central to the gearbox model. PMID:19656294

  1. Process simulation and parametric modeling for strategic project management

    CERN Document Server

    Morales, Peter J

    2013-01-01

    Process Simulation and Parametric Modeling for Strategic Project Management will offer CIOs, CTOs and Software Development Managers, IT Graduate Students an introduction to a set of technologies that will help them understand how to better plan software development projects, manage risk and have better insight into the complexities of the software development process.A novel methodology will be introduced that allows a software development manager to better plan and access risks in the early planning of a project.  By providing a better model for early software development estimation and softw

  2. Variable Fidelity Aeroelastic Toolkit - Structural Model Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The proposed innovation is a methodology to incorporate variable fidelity structural models into steady and unsteady aeroelastic and aeroservoelastic analyses in...

  3. Computational Models for Nonlinear Aeroelastic Systems Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Clear Science Corp. and Duke University propose to develop and demonstrate new and efficient computational methods of modeling nonlinear aeroelastic systems. The...

  4. A Regional Climate Model Evaluation System Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Develop a packaged data management infrastructure for the comparison of generated climate model output to existing observational datasets that includes capabilities...

  5. Model Updating Nonlinear System Identification Toolbox Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ZONA Technology (ZONA) proposes to develop an enhanced model updating nonlinear system identification (MUNSID) methodology that utilizes flight data with...

  6. Modeling of Glycerol-3-Phosphate Transporter Suggests a Potential ‘Tilt’ Mechanism involved in its Function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsigelny, Igor F.; Greenberg, Jerry; Kouznetsova, Valentina; Nigam, Sanjay K.

    2009-01-01

    Many major facilitator superfamily (MFS) transporters have similar 12-transmembrane α-helical topologies with two six-helix halves connected by a long loop. In humans, these transporters participate in key physiological processes and are also, as in the case of members of the organic anion transporter (OAT) family, of pharmaceutical interest. Recently, crystal structures of two bacterial representatives of the MFS family — the glycerol-3-phosphate transporter (GlpT) and lac-permease (LacY) — have been solved and, because of assumptions regarding the high structural conservation of this family, there is hope that the results can be applied to mammalian transporters as well. Based on crystallography, it has been suggested that a major conformational “switching” mechanism accounts for ligand transport by MFS proteins. This conformational switch would then allow periodic changes in the overall transporter configuration, resulting in its cyclic opening to the periplasm or cytoplasm. Following this lead, we have modeled a possible “switch” mechanism in GlpT, using the concept of rotation of protein domains as in the DynDom program17 and membranephilic constraints predicted by the MAPAS program.23 We found that the minima of energies of intersubunit interactions support two alternate positions consistent with their transport properties. Thus, for GlpT, a “tilt” of 9°–10° rotation had the most favorable energetics of electrostatic interaction between the two halves of the transporter; moreover, this confirmation was sufficient to suggest transport of the ligand across the membrane. We conducted steered molecular dynamics simulations of the GlpT-ligand system to explore how glycerol-3-phosphate would be handled by the “tilted” structure, and obtained results generally consistent with experimental mutagenesis data. While biochemical data remain most consistent with a single-site alternating access model, our results raise the possibility that, while

  7. Systemic change increases model projection uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verstegen, Judith; Karssenberg, Derek; van der Hilst, Floortje; Faaij, André

    2014-01-01

    Most spatio-temporal models are based on the assumption that the relationship between system state change and its explanatory processes is stationary. This means that model structure and parameterization are usually kept constant over time, ignoring potential systemic changes in this relationship re

  8. A MODEL FOR ALIGNING SOFTWARE PROJECTS REQUIREMENTS WITH PROJECT TEAM MEMBERS REQUIREMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Hans

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The fast-paced, dynamic environment within which information and communication technology (ICT projects are run as well as ICT professionals’ constant changing requirements present a challenge for project managers in terms of aligning projects’ requirements with project team members’ requirements. This research paper purports that if projects’ requirements are properly aligned with team members’ requirements, then this will result in a balanced decision approach. Moreover, such an alignment will result in the realization of employee’s needs as well as meeting project’s needs. This paper presents a Project’s requirements and project Team members’ requirements (PrTr alignment model and argues that a balanced decision which meets both software project’s requirements and team members’ requirements can be achieved through the application of the PrTr alignment model.

  9. An improved numerical model suggests potential differences of wind-blown sand between on Earth and Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bo, T. L.; Fu, L. T.; Liu, L.; Zheng, X. J.

    2017-06-01

    The studies on wind-blown sand are crucial for understanding the change of climate and landscape on Mars. However, the disadvantages of the saltation models may result in unreliable predictions. In this paper, the saltation model has been improved from two main aspects, the aerodynamic surface roughness and the lift-off parameters. The aerodynamic surface roughness is expressed as function of particle size, wind strength, air density, and air dynamic viscosity. The lift-off parameters are improved through including the dependence of restitution coefficient on incident parameters and the correlation between saltating speed and angle. The improved model proved to be capable of reproducing the observed data well in both stable stage and evolution process. The modeling of wind-blown sand is promoted by all improved aspects, and the dependence of restitution coefficient on incident parameters could not be ignored. The constant restitution coefficient and uncorrelated lift-off parameter distributions would lead to both the overestimation of the sand transport rate and apparent surface roughness and the delay of evolution process. The distribution of lift-off speed and the evolution of lift-off parameters on Mars are found to be different from those on Earth. This may thus suggest that it is inappropriate to predict the evolution of wind-blown sand by using the lift-off velocity obtained in steady state saltation. And it also may be problematic to predict the wind-blown sand on Mars through applying the lift-off velocity obtained upon terrestrial conditions directly.

  10. Progressive effect of beta amyloid peptides accumulation on CA1 pyramidal neurons: a model study suggesting possible treatments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viviana eCulmone

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Several independent studies show that accumulation of β-amyloid (Aβ peptides , one of the characteristic hallmark of Alzheimer’s Disease (AD, can affect normal neuronal activity in different ways. However, in spite of intense experimental work to explain the possible underlying mechanisms of action, a comprehensive and congruent understanding is still lacking. Part of the problem might be the opposite ways in which Aβ have been experimentally found to affect the normal activity of a neuron; for example, making a neuron more excitable (by reducing the A- or DR-type K+ currents or less excitable (by reducing synaptic transmission and Na+ current. The overall picture is therefore confusing, since the interplay of many mechanisms makes it difficult to link individual experimental findings with the more general problem of understanding the progression of the disease. This is an important issue, especially for the development of new drugs trying to ameliorate the effects of the disease. We addressed these paradoxes through computational models. We first modeled the different stages of AD by progressively modifying the intrinsic membrane and synaptic properties of a realistic model neuron, while accounting for multiple and different experimental findings and by evaluating the contribution of each mechanism to the overall modulation of the cell’s excitability. We then tested a number of manipulations of channel and synaptic activation properties that could compensate for the effects of Aβ. The model predicts possible therapeutic treatments in terms of pharmacological manipulations of channels’ kinetic and activation properties. The results also suggest how and which mechanisms can be targeted by a drug to restore the original firing conditions.

  11. Three-Dimensional Analysis of Budding Sites and Released Virus Suggests a Revised Model for HIV-1 Morphogenesis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carlson, L.; Simon, M.; Briggs, J. A. G.; Glass, B.; Riches, J. D.; Johnson, M. C.; Muller, B.; Grunewald, K.; Krausslich, H.-G.

    2008-12-11

    Current models of HIV-1 morphogenesis hold that newly synthesized viral Gag polyproteins traffic to and assemble at the cell membrane into spherical protein shells. The resulting late-budding structure is thought to be released by the cellular ESCRT machinery severing the membrane tether connecting it to the producer cell. Using electron tomography and scanning transmission electron microscopy, we find that virions have a morphology and composition distinct from late-budding sites. Gag is arranged as a continuous but incomplete sphere in the released virion. In contrast, late-budding sites lacking functional ESCRT exhibited a nearly closed Gag sphere. The results lead us to propose that budding is initiated by Gag assembly, but is completed in an ESCRT-dependent manner before the Gag sphere is complete. This suggests that ESCRT functions early in HIV-1 release - akin to its role in vesicle formation - and is not restricted to severing the thin membrane tether.

  12. Proposal of New PRORISK Model for GSD Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Rizwan Jameel Qureshi

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The level of complexity and risks associated with software are increasing exponentially because of competing environment especially in geographically distributed projects. Global software development (GSD face challenges like distance, communication and coordination challenges. The coordination and communication challenges are the main causes of failure in GSD. Project Oriented Risk Management (PRORISK is one of the models to address the importance of risk management and project management processes in standard software projects. However, existing model is not proposed to handle GSD associated risks. This warrants the proposal of new PRORISK model to manage the risks of GSD. Survey is used as a research design to validate the proposed solution. We anticipate that the proposed solution will help the software companies to cater the risks associated with GSD.

  13. How historic simulation-observation discrepancy affects future warming projections in a very large model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodwin, Philip

    2016-10-01

    Projections of future climate made by model-ensembles have credibility because the historic simulations by these models are consistent with, or near-consistent with, historic observations. However, it is not known how small inconsistencies between the ranges of observed and simulated historic climate change affects the future projections made by a model ensemble. Here, the impact of historical simulation-observation inconsistencies on future warming projections is quantified in a 4-million member Monte Carlo ensemble from a new efficient Earth System Model (ESM). Of the 4-million ensemble members, a subset of 182,500 are consistent with historic ranges of warming, heat uptake and carbon uptake simulated by the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) ensemble. This simulation-consistent subset projects similar future warming ranges to the CMIP5 ensemble for all four RCP scenarios, indicating the new ESM represents an efficient tool to explore parameter space for future warming projections based on historic performance. A second subset of 14,500 ensemble members are consistent with historic observations for warming, heat uptake and carbon uptake. This observation-consistent subset projects a narrower range for future warming, with the lower bounds of projected warming still similar to CMIP5, but the upper warming bounds reduced by 20-35 %. These findings suggest that part of the upper range of twenty-first century CMIP5 warming projections may reflect historical simulation-observation inconsistencies. However, the agreement of lower bounds for projected warming implies that the likelihood of warming exceeding dangerous levels over the twenty-first century is unaffected by small discrepancies between CMIP5 models and observations.

  14. Genetic and functional analyses of SHANK2 mutations suggest a multiple hit model of autism spectrum disorders.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claire S Leblond

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Autism spectrum disorders (ASD are a heterogeneous group of neurodevelopmental disorders with a complex inheritance pattern. While many rare variants in synaptic proteins have been identified in patients with ASD, little is known about their effects at the synapse and their interactions with other genetic variations. Here, following the discovery of two de novo SHANK2 deletions by the Autism Genome Project, we identified a novel 421 kb de novo SHANK2 deletion in a patient with autism. We then sequenced SHANK2 in 455 patients with ASD and 431 controls and integrated these results with those reported by Berkel et al. 2010 (n = 396 patients and n = 659 controls. We observed a significant enrichment of variants affecting conserved amino acids in 29 of 851 (3.4% patients and in 16 of 1,090 (1.5% controls (P = 0.004, OR = 2.37, 95% CI = 1.23-4.70. In neuronal cell cultures, the variants identified in patients were associated with a reduced synaptic density at dendrites compared to the variants only detected in controls (P = 0.0013. Interestingly, the three patients with de novo SHANK2 deletions also carried inherited CNVs at 15q11-q13 previously associated with neuropsychiatric disorders. In two cases, the nicotinic receptor CHRNA7 was duplicated and in one case the synaptic translation repressor CYFIP1 was deleted. These results strengthen the role of synaptic gene dysfunction in ASD but also highlight the presence of putative modifier genes, which is in keeping with the "multiple hit model" for ASD. A better knowledge of these genetic interactions will be necessary to understand the complex inheritance pattern of ASD.

  15. Model Updating Nonlinear System Identification Toolbox Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ZONA Technology proposes to develop an enhanced model updating nonlinear system identification (MUNSID) methodology by adopting the flight data with state-of-the-art...

  16. Service Oriented Spacecraft Modeling Environment Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The I-Logix team proposes development of the Service Oriented Spacecraft Modeling Environment (SOSME) to allow faster and more effective spacecraft system design...

  17. Generalized Reduced Order Model Generation Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — M4 Engineering proposes to develop a generalized reduced order model generation method. This method will allow for creation of reduced order aeroservoelastic state...

  18. Computational Models for Nonlinear Aeroelastic Systems Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Clear Science Corp. and Duke University propose to develop and demonstrate a new and efficient computational method of modeling nonlinear aeroelastic systems. The...

  19. Multiscale Modeling of Hall Thrusters Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — New multiscale modeling capability for analyzing advanced Hall thrusters is proposed. This technology offers NASA the ability to reduce development effort of new...

  20. Crew Autonomy Measures and Models (CAMM) Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — SA Technologies will employ a two-part solution including measures and models for evaluating crew autonomy in exploratory space missions. An integrated measurement...

  1. Modeling HLA associations with EBV-positive and -negative Hodgkin lymphoma suggests distinct mechanisms in disease pathogenesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Paul C D; McAulay, Karen A; Montgomery, Dorothy; Lake, Annette; Shield, Lesley; Gallagher, Alice; Little, Ann-Margaret; Shah, Anila; Marsh, Steven G E; Taylor, G Malcolm; Jarrett, Ruth F

    2015-09-01

    HLA genotyping and genome wide association studies provide strong evidence for associations between Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) alleles and classical Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL). Analysis of these associations is complicated by the extensive linkage disequilibrium within the major histocompatibility region and recent data suggesting that associations with EBV-positive and EBV-negative cHL are largely distinct. To distinguish independent and therefore potentially causal associations from associations confounded by linkage disequilibrium, we applied a variable selection regression modeling procedure to directly typed HLA class I and II genes and selected SNPs from EBV-stratified patient subgroups. In final models, HLA-A*01:01 and B*37:01 were associated with an increased risk of EBV-positive cHL whereas DRB1*15:01 and DPB1*01:01 were associated with decreased risk. Effects were independent of a prior history of infectious mononucleosis. For EBV-negative cHL the class II SNP rs6903608 remained the strongest predictor of disease risk after adjusting for the effects of common HLA alleles. Associations with "all cHL" and differences by case EBV status reflected the subgroup analysis. In conclusion, this study extends previous findings by identifying novel HLA associations with EBV-stratified subgroups of cHL, highlighting those alleles likely to be biologically relevant and strengthening evidence implicating genetic variation associated with the SNP rs6903608.

  2. Hypofractionation in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC): suggestions from modelling both acute and chronic hypoxia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruggieri, Ruggero [Department of Medical Physics, Az. Osp. Bianchi Melacrino Morelli, Via Melacrino, 89100 Reggio Calabria (Italy)

    2004-10-21

    Based on experimental estimates for acute and chronic tumour hypoxia, a speculative analysis of the therapeutic ratio dependence on the number of once-daily five-days-per-week fractions (n) for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) radiotherapy is proposed. For this purpose an adapted formulation of the linear-quadratic model has been derived, including the effects of tumour repopulation, inter-tumour {alpha}-heterogeneity and oxygen enhancement ratio dependence on the dose per fraction. The relation between the curative dose D{sub 50}, assuring 50% tumour control probability, and n has been computed: for (n, D{sub 50}) fractionation schemes, the therapeutic ratios have been compared in terms of effective normalized total doses to the lungs (NTD{sup eff}{sub L}), estimated by a few supposed fractions of the normalized total dose to the tumour. Results suggest that D{sub 50} is dominated by chronic hypoxia for shortly hypofractionated treatments and by acute hypoxia for multifractionated treatments. Furthermore, the optimum number of fractions depends on the rapidity of the reoxygenation from chronically hypoxic cells, almost independently of the extent of both chronic and acute hypoxia. For NSCLC, both the reduction of n until about 20 fractions in hypofractionated dose-escalation trials, and the extension of extra-cranial stereotactic radiotherapy schedules to include at least 5-10 fractions, seem to be supported by this model.

  3. Single-cell quantification of Bax activation and mathematical modelling suggest pore formation on minimal mitochondrial Bax accumulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Düssmann, H; Rehm, M; Concannon, C G; Anguissola, S; Würstle, M; Kacmar, S; Völler, P; Huber, H J; Prehn, J H M

    2010-02-01

    Mitochondrial outer membrane permeabilisation (MOMP) during apoptosis is triggered by the activation and oligomerisation of Bax and Bak, but a quantification of these processes in individual cells has not yet been performed. Single-cell imaging of Bax translocation and oligomerisation in Bax-deficient DU-145 cells expressing CFP-Bax and YFP-Bax revealed that both processes started only minutes before or concomitantly with MOMP, with the majority of Bax translocation and oligomerisation occurring downstream of MOMP. Quantification of YFP-Bax concentrations at mitochondria revealed an increase of only 1.8 + or - 1.5% at MOMP onset. This was increased to 11.2 + or - 3.6% in bak-silenced cells. These data suggested that Bax activation exceeded by far the quantities required for MOMP induction, and that minimal Bax or Bak activation may be sufficient to trigger rapid pore formation. In a cellular automaton modelling approach that incorporated the quantities and movement probabilities of Bax and its inhibitors, activators and enablers in the mitochondrial membrane, we could re-model rapid pore formation kinetics at submaximal Bax activation.

  4. An orthotopic xenograft model of intraneural NF1 MPNST suggests a potential association between steroid hormones and tumor cell proliferation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perrin, George Q; Li, Hua; Fishbein, Lauren; Thomson, Susanne A; Hwang, Min S; Scarborough, Mark T; Yachnis, Anthony T; Wallace, Margaret R; Mareci, Thomas H; Muir, David

    2007-11-01

    Malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumors (MPNST) are the most aggressive cancers associated with neurofibromatosis type 1 (NF1). Here we report a practical and reproducible model of intraneural NF1 MPNST, by orthotopic xenograft of an immortal human NF1 tumor-derived Schwann cell line into the sciatic nerves of female scid mice. Intraneural injection of the cell line sNF96.2 consistently produced MPNST-like tumors that were highly cellular and showed extensive intraneural growth. These xenografts had a high proliferative index, were angiogenic, had significant mast cell infiltration and rapidly dominated the host nerve. The histopathology of engrafted intraneural tumors was consistent with that of human NF1 MPNST. Xenograft tumors were readily examined by magnetic resonance imaging, which also was used to assess tumor vascularity. In addition, the intraneural proliferation of sNF96.2 cell tumors was decreased in ovariectomized mice, while replacement of estrogen or progesterone restored tumor cell proliferation. This suggests a potential role for steroid hormones in supporting tumor cell growth of this MPNST cell line in vivo. The controlled orthotopic implantation of sNF96.2 cells provides for the precise initiation of intraneural MPNST-like tumors in a model system suitable for therapeutic interventions, including inhibitors of angiogenesis and further study of steroid hormone effects on tumor cell growth.

  5. Molecular modeling and docking of novel laccase from multiple serotype of Yersinia enterocolitica suggests differential and multiple substrate binding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Deepti; Sharma, Krishna Kant; Dhar, Mahesh Shanker; Virdi, Jugsharan Singh

    2014-06-20

    Multi-copper oxidases (MCOs) are widely distributed in bacteria, where they are responsible for metal homeostasis, acquisition and oxidation. Using specific primers, yacK coding for MCO was amplified from different serotypes of Yersinia enterocolitica biovar 1A. Homology modeling of the protein followed by docking with five well-known substrates for different MCO's (viz., 2,2'-azino-bis(3-ethylbenzthiazoline-6-sulphonic acid [ABTS], syringaldazine, L-tyrosine, ammonium ferrous sulfate and guaiacol), lignin monomers (Coniferyl alcohol, p-coumaryl alcohol and sinapyl alcohol) and two inhibitors i.e., kojic acid and N-hydroxyglycine was done. The docking gave maximum GoldScore i.e., 91.93 and 72.64 with ammonium ferrous sulfate and ABTS, respectively. Similarly, docking with ICM gave -82.10 and -83.61 docking score, confirming the protein to be true laccase with ferroxidase activity. Further, validation with ammonium ferrous sulfate as substrate gave laccase activity of 0.36Units/L/min. Guaiacol, L-tyrosine, and lignin monomers showed good binding affinity with protein models with GoldScores of 35.89, 41.82, 40.41, 41.12 and 43.10, respectively. The sequence study of all the cloned Yack genes showed serotype specific clade in dendrogram. There was distinct discrimination in the ligand binding affinity of Y. enterocolitica laccase, among strains of same clonal groups, suggesting it as a tool for phylogenetic studies.

  6. Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golden, Heather E; Knightes, Christopher D; Conrads, Paul A; Feaster, Toby D; Davis, Gary M; Benedict, Stephen T; Bradley, Paul M

    2013-09-01

    Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. An ensemble of watershed models was applied in the present study to simulate and evaluate the responses of hydrological and total Hg (THg) fluxes from the landscape to the watershed outlet and in-stream THg concentrations to contrasting climate change projections for a watershed in the southeastern coastal plain of the United States. Simulations were conducted under stationary atmospheric deposition and land cover conditions to explicitly evaluate the effect of projected precipitation and temperature on watershed Hg export (i.e., the flux of Hg at the watershed outlet). Based on downscaled inputs from 2 global circulation models that capture extremes of projected wet (Community Climate System Model, Ver 3 [CCSM3]) and dry (ECHAM4/HOPE-G [ECHO]) conditions for this region, watershed model simulation results suggest a decrease of approximately 19% in ensemble-averaged mean annual watershed THg fluxes using the ECHO climate-change model and an increase of approximately 5% in THg fluxes with the CCSM3 model. Ensemble-averaged mean annual ECHO in-stream THg concentrations increased 20%, while those of CCSM3 decreased by 9% between the baseline and projected simulation periods. Watershed model simulation results using both climate change models suggest that monthly watershed THg fluxes increase during the summer, when projected flow is higher than baseline conditions. The present study's multiple watershed model approach underscores the uncertainty associated with climate change response projections and their use in climate change management decisions. Thus, single-model predictions can be misleading, particularly in developmental stages of watershed Hg modeling. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

  7. Applying a Hybrid MCDM Model for Six Sigma Project Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fu-Kwun Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Six Sigma is a project-driven methodology; the projects that provide the maximum financial benefits and other impacts to the organization must be prioritized. Project selection (PS is a type of multiple criteria decision making (MCDM problem. In this study, we present a hybrid MCDM model combining the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL technique, analytic network process (ANP, and the VIKOR method to evaluate and improve Six Sigma projects for reducing performance gaps in each criterion and dimension. We consider the film printing industry of Taiwan as an empirical case. The results show that our study not only can use the best project selection, but can also be used to analyze the gaps between existing performance values and aspiration levels for improving the gaps in each dimension and criterion based on the influential network relation map.

  8. Benefits of a Cohort Survival Projection Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suslow, Sidney

    1977-01-01

    A cohort survival model of student attendance provides primary and secondary benefits in accurate student information not before available. At Berkeley the computerized Cohort Survival History File, in use for two years, has been successful in assessing various aspects of students' academic behavior and student flow problems. (Editor/LBH)

  9. Modeling Change in Project Duration and Completion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wiltshire, Travis; Butner, Jonathan E.; Pirtle, Zachary

    2017-01-01

    In complex work domains and organizations, understanding scheduleing dynamics can ensure objectives are reached and delays are mitigated. In the current paper, we examine the scheduling dynamics for NASA’s Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1) activities. For this examination, we specifically modeled...

  10. Rapid genome reshaping by multiple-gene loss after whole-genome duplication in teleost fish suggested by mathematical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inoue, Jun; Sato, Yukuto; Sinclair, Robert; Tsukamoto, Katsumi; Nishida, Mutsumi

    2015-12-01

    Whole-genome duplication (WGD) is believed to be a significant source of major evolutionary innovation. Redundant genes resulting from WGD are thought to be lost or acquire new functions. However, the rates of gene loss and thus temporal process of genome reshaping after WGD remain unclear. The WGD shared by all teleost fish, one-half of all jawed vertebrates, was more recent than the two ancient WGDs that occurred before the origin of jawed vertebrates, and thus lends itself to analysis of gene loss and genome reshaping. Using a newly developed orthology identification pipeline, we inferred the post-teleost-specific WGD evolutionary histories of 6,892 protein-coding genes from nine phylogenetically representative teleost genomes on a time-calibrated tree. We found that rapid gene loss did occur in the first 60 My, with a loss of more than 70-80% of duplicated genes, and produced similar genomic gene arrangements within teleosts in that relatively short time. Mathematical modeling suggests that rapid gene loss occurred mainly by events involving simultaneous loss of multiple genes. We found that the subsequent 250 My were characterized by slow and steady loss of individual genes. Our pipeline also identified about 1,100 shared single-copy genes that are inferred to have become singletons before the divergence of clupeocephalan teleosts. Therefore, our comparative genome analysis suggests that rapid gene loss just after the WGD reshaped teleost genomes before the major divergence, and provides a useful set of marker genes for future phylogenetic analysis.

  11. Towards an Intelligent Project Based Organization Business Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alami Marrouni Oussama

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Global economy is undergoing a recession phase that had made competition tougher and imposed new business framework. Businesses have to shift from the classical management approaches to an Intelligent Project Based Organization (IPBO model that provides flexibility and agility. IPBO model is intended to reinforce the proven advantages of Project Based Organization (PBO by the use of suitable Enterprise Intelligence (EI Systems. The goal of this paper is to propose an IPBO model that combines benefits of PBO and EI and helps overcoming their pitfalls

  12. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

    KAUST Repository

    Kravitz, Ben

    2011-01-31

    To evaluate the effects of stratospheric geoengineering with sulphate aerosols, we propose standard forcing scenarios to be applied to multiple climate models to compare their results and determine the robustness of their responses. Thus far, different modeling groups have used different forcing scenarios for both global warming and geoengineering, complicating the comparison of results. We recommend four experiments to explore the extent to which geoengineering might offset climate change projected in some of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 experiments. These experiments focus on stratospheric aerosols, but future experiments under this framework may focus on different means of geoengineering. © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society.

  13. Development and application of new quality model for software projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnavel, K; Dillibabu, R

    2014-01-01

    The IT industry tries to employ a number of models to identify the defects in the construction of software projects. In this paper, we present COQUALMO and its limitations and aim to increase the quality without increasing the cost and time. The computation time, cost, and effort to predict the residual defects are very high; this was overcome by developing an appropriate new quality model named the software testing defect corrective model (STDCM). The STDCM was used to estimate the number of remaining residual defects in the software product; a few assumptions and the detailed steps of the STDCM are highlighted. The application of the STDCM is explored in software projects. The implementation of the model is validated using statistical inference, which shows there is a significant improvement in the quality of the software projects.

  14. The Frontier Fields Lens Modeling Comparison Project

    CERN Document Server

    Meneghetti, M; Coe, D; Contini, E; De Lucia, G; Giocoli, C; Acebron, A; Borgani, S; Bradac, M; Diego, J M; Hoag, A; Ishigaki, M; Johnson, T L; Jullo, E; Kawamata, R; Lam, D; Limousin, M; Liesenborgs, J; Oguri, M; Sebesta, K; Sharon, K; Williams, L L R; Zitrin, A

    2016-01-01

    Gravitational lensing by clusters of galaxies offers a powerful probe of their structure and mass distribution. Deriving a lens magnification map for a galaxy cluster is a classic inversion problem and many methods have been developed over the past two decades to solve it. Several research groups have developed techniques independently to map the predominantly dark matter distribution in cluster lenses. While these methods have all provided remarkably high precision mass maps, particularly with exquisite imaging data from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), the reconstructions themselves have never been directly compared. In this paper, we report the results of comparing various independent lens modeling techniques employed by individual research groups in the community. Here we present for the first time a detailed and robust comparison of methodologies for fidelity, accuracy and precision. For this collaborative exercise, the lens modeling community was provided simulated cluster images -- of two clusters Are...

  15. Cacao Intensification in Sulawesi: A Green Prosperity Model Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moriarty, K.; Elchinger, M.; Hill, G.; Katz, J.; Barnett, J.

    2014-09-01

    NREL conducted eight model projects for Millennium Challenge Corporation's (MCC) Compact with Indonesia. Green Prosperity, the largest project of the Compact, seeks to address critical constraints to economic growth while supporting the Government of Indonesia's commitment to a more sustainable, less carbon-intensive future. This study evaluates techniques to improve cacao farming in Sulawesi Indonesia with an emphasis on Farmer Field Schools and Cocoa Development Centers to educate farmers and for train the trainer programs. The study estimates the economic viability of cacao farming if smallholder implement techniques to increase yield as well as social and environmental impacts of the project.

  16. Retrospective analysis of the quality of reports by author-suggested and non-author-suggested reviewers in journals operating on open or single-blind peer review models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kowalczuk, Maria K; Dudbridge, Frank; Nanda, Shreeya; Harriman, Stephanie L; Patel, Jigisha; Moylan, Elizabeth C

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To assess whether reports from reviewers recommended by authors show a bias in quality and recommendation for editorial decision, compared with reviewers suggested by other parties, and whether reviewer reports for journals operating on open or single-blind peer review models differ with regard to report quality and reviewer recommendations. Design Retrospective analysis of the quality of reviewer reports using an established Review Quality Instrument, and analysis of reviewer recommendations and author satisfaction surveys. Setting BioMed Central biology and medical journals. BMC Infectious Diseases and BMC Microbiology are similar in size, rejection rates, impact factors and editorial processes, but the former uses open peer review while the latter uses single-blind peer review. The Journal of Inflammation has operated under both peer review models. Sample Two hundred reviewer reports submitted to BMC Infectious Diseases, 200 reviewer reports submitted to BMC Microbiology and 400 reviewer reports submitted to the Journal of Inflammation. Results For each journal, author-suggested reviewers provided reports of comparable quality to non-author-suggested reviewers, but were significantly more likely to recommend acceptance, irrespective of the peer review model (previewer reports measured by the Review Quality Instrument was 5% higher than for BMC Microbiology (p=0.042). For the Journal of Inflammation, the quality of reports was the same irrespective of the peer review model used. Conclusions Reviewers suggested by authors provide reports of comparable quality to non-author-suggested reviewers, but are significantly more likely to recommend acceptance. Open peer review reports for BMC Infectious Diseases were of higher quality than single-blind reports for BMC Microbiology. There was no difference in quality of peer review in the Journal of Inflammation under open peer review compared with single blind. PMID:26423855

  17. Activity-dependent depression of excitability and calcium transients in the neurohypophysis suggests a model of "stuttering conduction".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muschol, Martin; Kosterin, Paul; Ichikawa, Michinori; Salzberg, B M

    2003-12-10

    Using millisecond time-resolved optical recordings of transmembrane voltage and intraterminal calcium, we have determined how activity-dependent changes in the population action potential are related to a concurrent modulation of calcium transients in the neurohypophysis. We find that repetitive stimulation dramatically alters the amplitude of the population action potential and significantly increases its temporal dispersion. The population action potentials and the calcium transients exhibit well correlated frequency-dependent amplitude depression, with broadening of the action potential playing only a limited role. High-speed camera recordings indicate that the magnitude of the spike modulation is uniform throughout the neurohypophysis, thereby excluding propagation failure as the underlying mechanism. In contrast, temporal dispersion and latency of the population spike do increase with distance from the stimulation site. This increase is enhanced during repeated stimulation and by raising the stimulation frequency. Changes in Ca influx directly affect the decline in population spike amplitude, consistent with electrophysiological measurements of the local loss of excitability in nerve terminals and varicosities, mediated by a Ca-activated K conductance. Our observations suggest a model of "stuttering conduction": repeated action potential stimulation causes excitability failures limited to nerve terminals and varicosities, which account for the rapid decline in the population spike amplitude. These failures, however, do not block action potential propagation but generate the cumulative increases in spike latency.

  18. Genomic, RNAseq, and molecular modeling evidence suggests that the major allergen domain in insects evolved from a homodimeric origin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randall, Thomas A; Perera, Lalith; London, Robert E; Mueller, Geoffrey A

    2013-01-01

    The major allergen domain (MA) is widely distributed in insects. The crystal structure of a single Bla g 1 MA revealed a novel protein fold in which the fundamental structure was a duplex of two subsequences (monomers), which had diverged over time. This suggested that the evolutionary origin of the MA structure may have been a homodimer of this smaller subsequence. Using publicly available genomic data, the distribution of the basic unit of this class of proteins was determined to better understand its evolutionary history. The duplication and divergence is examined at three distinct levels of resolution: 1) within the orders Diptera and Hymenoptera, 2) within one genus Drosophila, and 3) within one species Aedes aegypti. Within the family Culicidae, we have found two separate occurrences of monomers as independent genes. The organization of the gene family in A. aegypti shows a common evolutionary origin for its monomer and several closely related MAs. Molecular modeling of the A. aegypti monomer with the unique Bla g 1 fold confirms the distant evolutionary relationship and supports the feasibility of homodimer formation from a single monomer. RNAseq data for A. aegypti confirms that the monomer is expressed in the mosquito similar to other A. aegypti MAs after a blood meal. Together, these data support the contention that the detected monomer shares similar functional characteristics to related MAs in other insects. An extensive search for this domain outside of Insecta confirms that the MAs are restricted to insects.

  19. Building Models from the Bottom Up: The HOBBES Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medellin-Azuara, J.; Sandoval Solis, S.; Lund, J. R.; Chu, W.

    2013-12-01

    Water problems are often bigger than technical and data challenges associated in representing a water system using a model. Controversy and complexity is inherent when water is to be allocated among different uses making difficult to maintain coherent and productive discussions on addressing water problems. Quantification of a water supply system through models has proven to be helpful to improve understanding, explore and develop adaptable solutions to water problems. However, models often become too large and complex and become hostages of endless discussions of the assumptions, their algorithms and their limitations. Data management organization and documentation keep model flexible and useful over time. The UC Davis HOBBES project is a new approach, building models from the bottom up. Reversing the traditional model development, where data are arranged around a model algorithm, in Hobbes the data structure, organization and documentation are established first, followed by application of simulation or optimization modeling algorithms for a particular problem at hand. The HOBBES project establishes standards for storing, documenting and sharing datasets on California water system. This allows models to be developed and modified more easily and transparently, with greater comparability. Elements in the database have a spatial definition and can aggregate several infrastructural elements into detailed to coarse representations of the water system. Elements in the database represent reservoirs, groundwater basins, pumping stations, hydropower and water treatment facilities, demand areas and conveyance infrastructure statewide. These elements also host time series, economic and other information from hydrologic, economic, climate and other models. This presentation provides an overview of the project HOBBES project, its applications and prospects for California and elsewhere. The HOBBES Project

  20. AeroCom INSITU Project: Comparing modeled and measured aerosol optical properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, Elisabeth; Schmeisser, Lauren; Schulz, Michael; Fiebig, Markus; Ogren, John; Bian, Huisheng; Chin, Mian; Easter, Richard; Ghan, Steve; Kokkola, Harri; Laakso, Anton; Myhre, Gunnar; Randles, Cynthia; da Silva, Arlindo; Stier, Phillip; Skeie, Ragnehild; Takemura, Toshihiko; van Noije, Twan; Zhang, Kai

    2016-04-01

    AeroCom, an open international collaboration of scientists seeking to improve global aerosol models, recently initiated a project comparing model output to in-situ, surface-based measurements of aerosol optical properties. The model/measurement comparison project, called INSITU, aims to evaluate the performance of a suite of AeroCom aerosol models with site-specific observational data in order to inform iterative improvements to model aerosol modules. Surface in-situ data has the unique property of being traceable to physical standards, which is an asset in accomplishing the overall goal of bettering the accuracy of aerosols processes and the predicative capability of global climate models. Here we compare dry, in-situ aerosol scattering and absorption data from ~75 surface, in-situ sites from various global aerosol networks (including NOAA, EUSAAR/ACTRIS and GAW) with a simulated optical properties from a suite of models participating in the AeroCom project. We report how well models reproduce aerosol climatologies for a variety of time scales, aerosol characteristics and behaviors (e.g., aerosol persistence and the systematic relationships between aerosol optical properties), and aerosol trends. Though INSITU is a multi-year endeavor, preliminary phases of the analysis suggest substantial model biases in absorption and scattering coefficients compared to surface measurements, though the sign and magnitude of the bias varies with location. Spatial patterns in the biases highlight model weaknesses, e.g., the inability of models to properly simulate aerosol characteristics at sites with complex topography. Additionally, differences in modeled and measured systematic variability of aerosol optical properties suggest that some models are not accurately capturing specific aerosol behaviors, for example, the tendency of in-situ single scattering albedo to decrease with decreasing aerosol extinction coefficient. The endgoal of the INSITU project is to identify specific

  1. Semiclassical projection of hedgehog models with quarks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cohen, T.D.; Broniowski, W.

    1986-12-01

    A simple semiclassical method is presented for calculating physical observables in states with good angular momentum and isospin for models whose mean-field solutions are hedgehogs. The method is applicable for theories which have both quark and meson degrees of freedom. The basic approach is to find slowly rotating solutions to the time-dependent mean-field equations. A nontrivial set of differential equations must be solved to find the quark configuration for these rotating hedgehogs. The parameters which specify the rotating solutions are treated as the collective degrees of freedom. They are requantized by imposing a set of commutation relations which ensures the correct algebra for the SU(2) x SU(2) group of angular momentum and isospin. Collective wave functions can then be found and with these wave functions all matrix elements can be calculated. The method is applied to a simple version of the chiral quark-meson model. A number of physical quantities such as magnetic moments, charge distributions, g/sub A/, g/sub ..pi..//sub N//sub N/, N-..delta.. mass splitting, properties of the N-..delta.. transition, etc., are calculated.

  2. The Python Project: A Unique Model for Extending Research Opportunities to Undergraduate Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Pamela A.; Wall, Christopher; Luckey, Stephen W.; Langer, Stephen; Leinwand, Leslie A.

    2014-01-01

    Undergraduate science education curricula are traditionally composed of didactic instruction with a small number of laboratory courses that provide introductory training in research techniques. Research on learning methodologies suggests this model is relatively ineffective, whereas participation in independent research projects promotes enhanced…

  3. The Python Project: A Unique Model for Extending Research Opportunities to Undergraduate Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Pamela A.; Wall, Christopher; Luckey, Stephen W.; Langer, Stephen; Leinwand, Leslie A.

    2014-01-01

    Undergraduate science education curricula are traditionally composed of didactic instruction with a small number of laboratory courses that provide introductory training in research techniques. Research on learning methodologies suggests this model is relatively ineffective, whereas participation in independent research projects promotes enhanced…

  4. The Timber Resource Inventory Model (TRIM): a projection model for timber supply and policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    P.L. Tedder; R.N. La Mont; J.C. Kincaid

    1987-01-01

    TRIM (Timber Resource Inventory Model) is a yield table projection system developed for timber supply projections and policy analysis. TRIM simulates timber growth, inventories, management and area changes, and removals over the projection period. Programs in the TRIM system, card-by-card descriptions of required inputs, table formats, and sample results are presented...

  5. On reducibility and ergodicity of population projection matrix models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart; Carslake, David

    2010-01-01

    1. Population projection matrices (PPMs) are probably the most commonly used empirical population models. To be useful for predictive or prospective analyses, PPM models should generally be irreducible (the associated life cycle graph contains the necessary transition rates to facilitate pathways...... structure used in the population projection). In our sample of published PPMs, 15·6% are non-ergodic. 3. This presents a problem: reducible–ergodic models often defy biological rationale in their description of the life cycle but may or may not prove problematic for analysis as they often behave similarly...... to irreducible models. Reducible–non-ergodic models will usually defy biological rationale in their description of the both the life cycle and population dynamics, hence contravening most analytical methods. 4. We provide simple methods to evaluate reducibility and ergodicity of PPM models, present illustrative...

  6. Projected Dipole Model for Quantum Plasmonics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yan, Wei; Wubs, Martijn; Mortensen, N. Asger

    2015-01-01

    Quantum effects of plasmonic phenomena have been explored through ab initio studies, but only for exceedingly small metallic nanostructures, leaving most experimentally relevant structures too large to handle. We propose instead an effective description with the computationally appealing features...... of classical electrodynamics, while quantum properties are described accurately through an infinitely thin layer of dipoles oriented normally to the metal surface. The nonlocal polarizability of the dipole layer-the only introduced parameter-is mapped from the free-electron distribution near the metal surface...... as obtained with 1D quantum calculations, such as time-dependent density-functional theory (TDDFT), and is determined once and for all. The model can be applied in two and three dimensions to any system size that is tractable within classical electrodynamics, while capturing quantum plasmonic aspects...

  7. A Hybrid Authorization Model For Project-Oriented Workflow

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Xiaoguang(张晓光); Cao Jian; Zhang Shensheng

    2003-01-01

    In the context of workflow systems, security-relevant aspect is related to the assignment of activities to (human or automated) agents. This paper intends to cast light on the management of project-oriented workflow. A comprehensive authorization model is proposed from the perspective of project management. In this model, the concept of activity decomposition and team is introduced, which improves the security of conventional role-based access control. Furthermore, policy is provided to define the static and dynamic constraints such as Separation of Duty (SoD). Validity of constraints is proposed to provide a fine-grained assignment, which improves the performance of policy management. The model is applicable not only to project-oriented workflow applications but also to other teamwork environments such as virtual enterprise.

  8. A CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR IMPROVED PROJECT SELECTION AND PRIORITISATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Viljoen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Project portfolio management processes are often designed and operated as a series of stages (or project phases and gates. However, the flow of such a process is often slow, characterised by queues waiting for a gate decision and by repeated work from previous stages waiting for additional information or for re-processing. In this paper the authors propose a conceptual model that applies supply chain and constraint management principles to the project portfolio management process. An advantage of the proposed model is that it provides the ability to select and prioritise projects without undue changes to project schedules. This should result in faster flow through the system.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Prosesse om portefeuljes van projekte te bestuur word normaalweg ontwerp en bedryf as ’n reeks fases en hekke. Die vloei deur so ’n proses is dikwels stadig en word gekenmerk deur toue wat wag vir besluite by die hekke en ook deur herwerk van vorige fases wat wag vir verdere inligting of vir herprosessering. In hierdie artikel word ‘n konseptuele model voorgestel. Die model berus op die beginsels van voorsieningskettings sowel as van beperkingsbestuur, en bied die voordeel dat projekte geselekteer en geprioritiseer kan word sonder onnodige veranderinge aan projekskedules. Dit behoort te lei tot versnelde vloei deur die stelsel.

  9. An anatomy of the projected North Atlantic warming hole in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menary, Matthew B.; Wood, Richard A.

    2017-07-01

    Global mean surface air temperature has increased over the past century and climate models project this trend to continue. However, the pattern of change is not homogeneous. Of particular interest is the subpolar North Atlantic, which has cooled in recent years and is projected to continue to warm less rapidly than the global mean. This is often termed the North Atlantic warming hole (WH). In climate model projections, the development of the WH is concomitant with a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Here, we further investigate the possible link between the AMOC and WH and the competing drivers of vertical mixing and surface heat fluxes. Across a large ensemble of 41 climate models we find that the spatial structure of the WH varies considerably from model to model but is generally upstream of the simulated deep water formation regions. A heat budget analysis suggests the formation of the WH is related to changes in ocean heat transport. Although the models display a plethora of AMOC mean states, they generally predict a weakening and shallowing of the AMOC also consistent with the evolving depth structure of the WH. A lagged regression analysis during the WH onset phase suggests that reductions in wintertime mixing lead a weakening of the AMOC by 5 years in turn leading initiation of the WH by 5 years. Inter-model differences in the evolution and structure of the WH are likely to lead to somewhat different projected climate impacts in nearby Europe and North America.

  10. Modelling of Airship Flight Mechanics by the Projection Equivalent Method

    OpenAIRE

    Frantisek Jelenciak; Michael Gerke; Ulrich Borgolte

    2015-01-01

    This article describes the projection equivalent method (PEM) as a specific and relatively simple approach for the modelling of aircraft dynamics. By the PEM it is possible to obtain a mathematic al model of the aerodynamic forces and momentums acting on different kinds of aircraft during flight. For the PEM, it is a characteristic of it that - in principle - it provides an acceptable regression model of aerodynamic forces and momentums which exhibits reasonable and plausible behaviour from a...

  11. Suitability Analysis of Continuous-Use Reliability Growth Projection Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-26

    exists for all types, shapes, and sizes. The primary focus of this study is a comparison of reliability growth projection models designed for...requirements to use reliability growth models, recent studies have noted trends in reliability failures throughout the DoD. In [14] Dr. Michael Gilmore...so a strict exponential distribu- tion was used to stay within their assumptions. In reality, however, reliability growth models often must be used

  12. Heart Modeling, Computational Physiology and the IUPS Physiome Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Peter J.

    The Physiome Project of the International Union of Physiological Sciences (IUPS) is attempting to provide a comprehensive framework for modelling the human body using computational methods which can incorporate the biochemistry, biophysics and anatomy of cells, tissues and organs. A major goal of the project is to use computational modelling to analyse integrative biological function in terms of underlying structure and molecular mechanisms. To support that goal the project is developing XML markup languages (CellML & FieldML) for encoding models, and software tools for creating, visualizing and executing these models. It is also establishing web-accessible physiological databases dealing with model-related data at the cell, tissue, organ and organ system levels. Two major developments in current medicine are, on the one hand, the much publicised genomics (and soon proteomics) revolution and, on the other, the revolution in medical imaging in which the physiological function of the human body can be studied with a plethora of imaging devices such as MRI, CT, PET, ultrasound, electrical mapping, etc. The challenge for the Physiome Project is to link these two developments for an individual - to use complementary genomic and medical imaging data, together with computational modelling tailored to the anatomy, physiology and genetics of that individual, for patient-specific diagnosis and treatment.

  13. Curcumin interaction with copper and iron suggests one possible mechanism of action in Alzheimer's disease animal models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, Larry; Ng, Alex

    2004-08-01

    Curcumin is a polyphenolic diketone from turmeric. Because of its anti-oxidant and anti-inflammatory effects, it was tested in animal models of Alzheimer's disease, reducing levels of amyloid and oxidized proteins and preventing cognitive deficits. An alternative mechanism of these effects is metal chelation, which may reduce amyloid aggregation or oxidative neurotoxicity. Metals can induce Abeta aggregation and toxicity, and are concentrated in AD brain. Chelators desferrioxamine and clioquinol have exhibited anti-AD effects. Using spectrophotometry, we quantified curcumin affinity for copper, zinc, and iron ions. Zn2+ showed little binding, but each Cu2+ or Fe2+ ion appeared to bind at least two curcumin molecules. The interaction of curcumin with copper reached half-maximum at approximately 3-12 microM copper and exhibited positive cooperativity, with Kd1 approximately 10-60 microM and Kd2 approximately 1.3 microM (for binding of the first and second curcumin molecules, respectively). Curcumin-iron interaction reached half-maximum at approximately 2.5-5 microM iron and exhibited negative cooperativity, with Kd1 approximately 0.5-1.6 microM and Kd2 approximately 50-100 microM. Curcumin and its metabolites can attain these levels in vivo, suggesting physiological relevance. Since curcumin more readily binds the redox-active metals iron and copper than redox-inactive zinc, curcumin might exert a net protective effect against Abeta toxicity or might suppress inflammatory damage by preventing metal induction of NF-kappaB.

  14. Construction project investment control model based on instant information

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Xue-tong

    2006-01-01

    Change of construction conditions always influences project investment by causing the loss of construction work time and extending the duration. To resolve such problem as difficult dynamic control in work construction plan, this article presents a concept of instant optimization by ways of adjustment operation time of each working procedure to minimize investment change. Based on this concept, its mathematical model is established and a strict mathematical justification is performed. An instant optimization model takes advantage of instant information in the construction process to duly complete adjustment of construction; thus we maximize cost efficiency of project investment.

  15. Reduction of uncertainty associated with future changes in Indian summer monsoon projected by climate models and assessment of monsoon teleconnections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajendran, Kavirajan; Surendran, Sajani; Kitoh, Akio; Varghese, Stella Jes

    2016-05-01

    Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) coupled global climate model (CGCM) Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) simulations project clear future temperature increase but diverse changes in Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) with substantial inter-model spread. Robust signals of projected changes are derived based on objective criteria and the physically consistent simulations with the highest reliability suggest future reduction in the frequency of light rainfall but increase in high to extreme rainfall. The role of equatorial Indian and Pacific Oceans on the projected changes in monsoon rainfall is investigated. The results of coupled model projections are also compared with the corresponding projections from high resolution AGCM time-slice, multi-physics and multi-forcing ensemble experiments.

  16. A financing model to solve financial barriers for implementing green building projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sanghyo; Lee, Baekrae; Kim, Juhyung; Kim, Jaejun

    2013-01-01

    Along with the growing interest in greenhouse gas reduction, the effect of greenhouse gas energy reduction from implementing green buildings is gaining attention. The government of the Republic of Korea has set green growth as its paradigm for national development, and there is a growing interest in energy saving for green buildings. However, green buildings may have financial barriers that have high initial construction costs and uncertainties about future project value. Under the circumstances, governmental support to attract private funding is necessary to implement green building projects. The objective of this study is to suggest a financing model for facilitating green building projects with a governmental guarantee based on Certified Emission Reduction (CER). In this model, the government provides a guarantee for the increased costs of a green building project in return for CER. And this study presents the validation of the model as well as feasibility for implementing green building project. In addition, the suggested model assumed governmental guarantees for the increased cost, but private guarantees seem to be feasible as well because of the promising value of the guarantee from CER. To do this, certification of Clean Development Mechanisms (CDMs) for green buildings must be obtained.

  17. A Financing Model to Solve Financial Barriers for Implementing Green Building Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanghyo Lee

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Along with the growing interest in greenhouse gas reduction, the effect of greenhouse gas energy reduction from implementing green buildings is gaining attention. The government of the Republic of Korea has set green growth as its paradigm for national development, and there is a growing interest in energy saving for green buildings. However, green buildings may have financial barriers that have high initial construction costs and uncertainties about future project value. Under the circumstances, governmental support to attract private funding is necessary to implement green building projects. The objective of this study is to suggest a financing model for facilitating green building projects with a governmental guarantee based on Certified Emission Reduction (CER. In this model, the government provides a guarantee for the increased costs of a green building project in return for CER. And this study presents the validation of the model as well as feasibility for implementing green building project. In addition, the suggested model assumed governmental guarantees for the increased cost, but private guarantees seem to be feasible as well because of the promising value of the guarantee from CER. To do this, certification of Clean Development Mechanisms (CDMs for green buildings must be obtained.

  18. Development of the NASA Digital Astronaut Project Muscle Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewandowski, Beth E.; Pennline, James A.; Thompson, W. K.; Humphreys, B. T.; Ryder, J. W.; Ploutz-Snyder, L. L.; Mulugeta, L.

    2015-01-01

    This abstract describes development work performed on the NASA Digital Astronaut Project Muscle Model. Muscle atrophy is a known physiological response to exposure to a low gravity environment. The DAP muscle model computationally predicts the change in muscle structure and function vs. time in a reduced gravity environment. The spaceflight muscle model can then be used in biomechanical models of exercise countermeasures and spaceflight tasks to: 1) develop site specific bone loading input to the DAP bone adaptation model over the course of a mission; 2) predict astronaut performance of spaceflight tasks; 3) inform effectiveness of new exercise countermeasures concepts.

  19. Multi-model-based Access Control in Construction Projects

    CERN Document Server

    Hilbert, Frank; Araujo, Larissa; 10.4204/EPTCS.83.1

    2012-01-01

    During the execution of large scale construction projects performed by Virtual Organizations (VO), relatively complex technical models have to be exchanged between the VO members. For linking the trade and transfer of these models, a so-called multi-model container format was developed. Considering the different skills and tasks of the involved partners, it is not necessary for them to know all the models in every technical detailing. Furthermore, the model size can lead to a delay in communication. In this paper an approach is presented for defining model cut-outs according to the current project context. Dynamic dependencies to the project context as well as static dependencies on the organizational structure are mapped in a context-sensitive rule. As a result, an approach for dynamic filtering of multi-models is obtained which ensures, together with a filtering service, that the involved VO members get a simplified view of complex multi-models as well as sufficient permissions depending on their tasks.

  20. Multi-model-based Access Control in Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Hilbert

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available During the execution of large scale construction projects performed by Virtual Organizations (VO, relatively complex technical models have to be exchanged between the VO members. For linking the trade and transfer of these models, a so-called multi-model container format was developed. Considering the different skills and tasks of the involved partners, it is not necessary for them to know all the models in every technical detailing. Furthermore, the model size can lead to a delay in communication. In this paper an approach is presented for defining model cut-outs according to the current project context. Dynamic dependencies to the project context as well as static dependencies on the organizational structure are mapped in a context-sensitive rule. As a result, an approach for dynamic filtering of multi-models is obtained which ensures, together with a filtering service, that the involved VO members get a simplified view of complex multi-models as well as sufficient permissions depending on their tasks.

  1. The study on stage financing model of IT project investment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Si-hua; Xu, Sheng-hua; Lee, Changhoon; Xiong, Neal N; He, Wei

    2014-01-01

    Stage financing is the basic operation of venture capital investment. In investment, usually venture capitalists use different strategies to obtain the maximum returns. Due to its advantages to reduce the information asymmetry and agency cost, stage financing is widely used by venture capitalists. Although considerable attentions are devoted to stage financing, very little is known about the risk aversion strategies of IT projects. This paper mainly addresses the problem of risk aversion of venture capital investment in IT projects. Based on the analysis of characteristics of venture capital investment of IT projects, this paper introduces a real option pricing model to measure the value brought by the stage financing strategy and design a risk aversion model for IT projects. Because real option pricing method regards investment activity as contingent decision, it helps to make judgment on the management flexibility of IT projects and then make a more reasonable evaluation about the IT programs. Lastly by being applied to a real case, it further illustrates the effectiveness and feasibility of the model.

  2. Risk Classification Model for Design and Build Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. E. Ogunsanmi

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to investigate if the various risk sources in Design and Build projects can be classified into three risk groups of cost, time and quality using the discriminant analysis technique. Literature search was undertaken to review issues of risk sources, classification of the identified risks into a risk structure, management of risks and effects of risks all on Design and Build projects as well as concepts of discriminant analysis as a statistical technique. This literature review was undertaken through the use of internet, published papers, journal articles and other published reports on risks in Design and Build projects. A research questionnaire was further designed to collect research information. This research study is a survey research that utilized cross-sectional design to capture the primary data. The data for the survey was collected in Nigeria. In all 40 questionnaires were sent to various respondents that included Architects, Engineers, Quantity Surveyors and Builders who had used Design and Build procurement method for their recently completed projects. Responses from these retrieved questionnaires that measured the impact of risks on Design and Build were analyzed using the discriminant analysis technique through the use of SPSS software package to build two discriminant models for classifying risks into cost, time and quality risk groups. Results of the study indicate that time overrun and poor quality are the two factors that discriminate between cost, time and quality related risk groups. These two discriminant functions explain the variation between the risk groups. All the discriminating variables of cost overrun, time overrun and poor quality demonstrate some relationships with the two discriminant functions. The two discriminant models built can classify risks in Design and Build projects into risk groups of cost, time and quality. These classifications models have 72% success rate of classification

  3. Modeling Projects in E-Learning Course: A Case of an Information Technology Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed G. Belkasmi

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Achieving projects is primordial in the process of teaching in several disciplines, particularly software engineering courses. However, proposing this learning activity in a context of e-learning is not automatically guaranteed by the current platforms, even unsupported by the existing standards for creating educational content. Approach: Through this study, starting from the model developed in the “XESOP-Jaxe” project to represent the contents of an e-learning course, we tried to propose an improvement in order to formalize a project for learners as a learning object. Results: We grafted our model, formalized in XML Schema, to the “XESOP-Jaxe” schema of the course. Thus, to the elements that could constitute a course, comes a new element called “projet” (project. Conclusion: This model was built and tested within the “XESOP-Jaxe” platform whose goal is to provide an effective solution for creating educational content in compliance with existing standards.

  4. Cardiac cell modelling: Observations from the heart of the cardiac physiome project

    KAUST Repository

    Fink, Martin

    2011-01-01

    In this manuscript we review the state of cardiac cell modelling in the context of international initiatives such as the IUPS Physiome and Virtual Physiological Human Projects, which aim to integrate computational models across scales and physics. In particular we focus on the relationship between experimental data and model parameterisation across a range of model types and cellular physiological systems. Finally, in the context of parameter identification and model reuse within the Cardiac Physiome, we suggest some future priority areas for this field. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

  5. Incentive Model Based on Cooperative Relationship in Sustainable Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangdong Wu

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Considering the cooperative relationship between owners and contractors in sustainable construction projects, as well as the synergistic effects created by cooperative behaviors, a cooperative incentive model was developed using game theory. The model was formulated and analyzed under both non-moral hazard and moral hazard situations. Then, a numerical simulation and example were proposed to verify the conclusions derived from the model. The results showed that the synergistic effect increases the input intensity of one party’s resource transfer into the increase of marginal utility of the other party, thus the owner and contractor are willing to enhance their levels of effort. One party’s optimal benefit allocation coefficient is positively affected by its own output efficiency, and negatively affected by the other party’s output efficiency. The effort level and expected benefits of the owner and contractor can be improved by enhancing the cooperative relationship between the two parties, as well as enhancing the net benefits of a sustainable construction project. The synergistic effect cannot lower the negative effect of moral hazard behaviors during the implementation of sustainable construction projects. Conversely, the higher levels of the cooperative relationship, the wider the gaps amongst the optimal values under both non-moral hazard and moral hazard situations for the levels of effort, expected benefits and net project benefits. Since few studies to date have emphasized the effects of cooperative relationship on sustainable construction projects, this study constructed a game-based incentive model to bridge the gaps. This study contributes significant theoretical and practical insights into the management of cooperation amongst stakeholders, and into the enhancement of the overall benefits of sustainable construction projects.

  6. High Performance Computing tools for the Integrated Tokamak Modelling project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guillerminet, B., E-mail: bernard.guillerminet@cea.f [Association Euratom-CEA sur la Fusion, IRFM, DSM, CEA Cadarache (France); Plasencia, I. Campos [Instituto de Fisica de Cantabria (IFCA), CSIC, Santander (Spain); Haefele, M. [Universite Louis Pasteur, Strasbourg (France); Iannone, F. [EURATOM/ENEA Fusion Association, Frascati (Italy); Jackson, A. [University of Edinburgh (EPCC) (United Kingdom); Manduchi, G. [EURATOM/ENEA Fusion Association, Padova (Italy); Plociennik, M. [Poznan Supercomputing and Networking Center (PSNC) (Poland); Sonnendrucker, E. [Universite Louis Pasteur, Strasbourg (France); Strand, P. [Chalmers University of Technology (Sweden); Owsiak, M. [Poznan Supercomputing and Networking Center (PSNC) (Poland)

    2010-07-15

    Fusion Modelling and Simulation are very challenging and the High Performance Computing issues are addressed here. Toolset for jobs launching and scheduling, data communication and visualization have been developed by the EUFORIA project and used with a plasma edge simulation code.

  7. Multimode model for projective photon-counting measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tualle-Brouri, Rosa; Ourjoumtsev, Alexei; Dantan, Aurélien

    2009-01-01

    We present a general model to account for the multimode nature of the quantum electromagnetic field in projective photon-counting measurements. We focus on photon-subtraction experiments, where non-Gaussian states are produced conditionally. These are useful states for continuous-variable quantum...

  8. Predicting Flu Season Requirements: An Undergraduate Modeling Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramlich, Gary R., II; Braunstein Fierson, Janet L.; Wright, J. Adam

    2010-01-01

    This project was designed to be used in a freshman calculus class whose students had already been introduced to logistic functions and basic data modeling techniques. It need not be limited to such an audience, however; it has also been implemented in a topics in mathematics class for college upperclassmen. Originally intended to be presented in…

  9. Project Physics Tests 5, Models of the Atom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA. Harvard Project Physics.

    Test items relating to Project Physics Unit 5 are presented in this booklet. Included are 70 multiple-choice and 23 problem-and-essay questions. Concepts of atomic model are examined on aspects of relativistic corrections, electron emission, photoelectric effects, Compton effect, quantum theories, electrolysis experiments, atomic number and mass,…

  10. Building information modeling (BIM) approach to the GMT Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teran, Jose; Sheehan, Michael; Neff, Daniel H.; Adriaanse, David; Grigel, Eric; Farahani, Arash

    2014-07-01

    The Giant Magellan Telescope (GMT), one of several next generation Extremely Large Telescopes (ELTs), is a 25.4 meter diameter altitude over azimuth design set to be built at the summit of Cerro Campánas at the Las Campánas Observatory in Chile. The paper describes the use of Building Information Modeling (BIM) for the GMT project.

  11. Student Success in College Composition through the Puente Project Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaffe, Barbara

    Much can be learned from California's Puente Project Model that would help students' success in classrooms as well as in college in general, and in their daily lives. Puente, which means "bridge" in Spanish, began in 1982 at Chabot College in northern California and is now in 38 colleges and 19 high schools statewide. Originally designed…

  12. Modelling Project Feasibility Robustness by Use of Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moshøj, Claus Rehfeld; Leleur, Steen

    1998-01-01

    , SEAM secures a consistent inclusion of actual scenario elements in the quantitative impact modelling and facilitates a transparent project feasibility robustness analysis. SEAM is implemented as part of a decision support system with a toolbox structure applicable to different types of transport...... investment analysis....

  13. Data model issues in the Cherenkov Telescope Array project

    CERN Document Server

    Contreras, J L; Bernlöhr, K; Boisson, C; Bregeon, J; Bulgarelli, A; de Cesare, G; Reyes, R de los; Fioretti, V; Kosack, K; Lavalley, C; Lyard, E; Marx, R; Rico, J; Sanguillot, M; Servillat, M; Walter, R; Ward, J E

    2015-01-01

    The planned Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA), a future ground-based Very-High-Energy (VHE) gamma-ray observatory, will be the largest project of its kind. It aims to provide an order of magnitude increase in sensitivity compared to currently operating VHE experiments and open access to guest observers. These features, together with the thirty years lifetime planned for the installation, impose severe constraints on the data model currently being developed for the project. In this contribution we analyze the challenges faced by the CTA data model development and present the requirements imposed to face them. While the full data model is still not completed we show the organization of the work, status of the design, and an overview of the prototyping efforts carried out so far. We also show examples of specific aspects of the data model currently under development.

  14. Long-term durum wheat monoculture: modelling and future projection

    OpenAIRE

    Ettore Bernardoni; Marco Acutis; Domenico Ventrella

    2012-01-01

    The potential effects of future climate change on grain production of a winter durum wheat cropping system were investigated. Based on future climate change projections, derived from a statistical downscaling process applied to the HadCM3 general circulation model and referred to two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B1), the response on yield and aboveground biomass (AGB) and the variation in total organic carbon (TOC) were explored. The software used in this work is an hybrid dynamic simulation model ...

  15. Project W-320 thermal hydraulic model benchmarking and baselining

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathyanarayana, K.

    1998-09-28

    Project W-320 will be retrieving waste from Tank 241-C-106 and transferring the waste to Tank 241-AY-102. Waste in both tanks must be maintained below applicable thermal limits during and following the waste transfer. Thermal hydraulic process control models will be used for process control of the thermal limits. This report documents the process control models and presents a benchmarking of the models with data from Tanks 241-C-106 and 241-AY-102. Revision 1 of this report will provide a baselining of the models in preparation for the initiation of sluicing.

  16. Long-term durum wheat monoculture: modelling and future projection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ettore Bernardoni

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The potential effects of future climate change on grain production of a winter durum wheat cropping system were investigated. Based on future climate change projections, derived from a statistical downscaling process applied to the HadCM3 general circulation model and referred to two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B1, the response on yield and aboveground biomass (AGB and the variation in total organic carbon (TOC were explored. The software used in this work is an hybrid dynamic simulation model able to simulate, under different pedoclimatic conditions, the processes involved in cropping system such as crop growth and development, water and nitrogen balance. It implements different approaches in order to ensure accurate simulation of the mainprocess related to soil-crop-atmosphere continuum.The model was calibrated using soil data, crop yield, AGB and phenology coming from a long-term experiment, located in Apulia region. The calibration was performed using data collected in the period 1978–1990; validation was carried out on the 1991–2009 data. Phenology simulation was sufficiently accurate, showing some limitation only in predicting the physiological maturity. Yields and AGBs were predicted with an acceptable accuracy during both calibration and validation. CRM resulted always close to optimum value, EF in every case scored positive value, the value of index r2 was good, although in some cases values lower than 0.6 were calculated. Slope of the linear regression equation between measured and simulated values was always close to 1, indicating an overall good performance of the model. Both future climate scenarios led to a general increase in yields but a slightly decrease in AGB values. Data showed variations in the total production and yield among the different periods due to the climate variation. TOC evolution suggests that the combination of temperature and precipitation is the main factor affecting TOC variation under future scenarios

  17. Multi-person Decision Model for Unfinished Construction Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christiono Utomo

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses a proposed model of multi-person decision on prioritizing selection with regard to continuing or terminating unfinished construction projects. This involved multiple steps including determining criteria and sub criteria, selecting and weighting of alternatives, optimizing, and analyzing coalition formation and agreement option. Criteria and sub criteria that were obtained from perspectives of 120 project managers are the first basis to construct decision hierarchy. The model is implemented in one of the biggest private construction projects in Indonesia. The implementation was based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process for multi criteria decision involving coalition and agreement options in a multi-person decision. Goal Programming was used to optimize based on cost constrains. The results demonstrate a process of multiperson decision to select priorities of each alternative to each decision and concluded that some of the projects were continued, postponed or terminated. The new direction of research presented in this paper presents some interesting challenges to those involved in modeling computer-based multi-person decision support utilizing both Multi Agent System and Multi Criteria Decision Making.

  18. Future meteorological drought: projections of regional climate models for Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stagge, James; Tallaksen, Lena; Rizzi, Jonathan

    2015-04-01

    In response to the major European drought events of the last decade, projecting future drought frequency and severity in a non-stationary climate is a major concern for Europe. Prior drought studies have identified regional hotspots in the Mediterranean and Eastern European regions, but have otherwise produced conflicting results with regard to future drought severity. Some of this disagreement is likely related to the relatively coarse resolution of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and regional averaging, which tends to smooth extremes. This study makes use of the most current Regional Climate Models (RCMs) forced with CMIP5 climate projections to quantify the projected change in meteorological drought for Europe during the next century at a fine, gridded scale. Meteorological drought is quantified using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which normalize accumulated precipitation and climatic water balance anomaly, respectively, for a specific location and time of year. By comparing projections for these two indices, the importance of precipitation deficits can be contrasted with the importance of evapotranspiration increases related to temperature changes. Climate projections are based on output from CORDEX (the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment), which provides high resolution regional downscaled climate scenarios that have been extensively tested for numerous regions around the globe, including Europe. SPI and SPEI are then calculated on a gridded scale at a spatial resolution of either 0.44 degrees (~50 km) or 0.11 degrees (~12.5km) for the three projected emission pathways (rcp26, rcp45, rcp85). Analysis is divided into two major sections: first validating the models with respect to observed historical trends in meteorological drought from 1970-2005 and then comparing drought severity and frequency during three future time periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100) to the

  19. 建设工程预决算审核问题及建议%Problems and Suggestions on Budget and Final Account Examination in Construction Project

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    卢伟鹏

    2012-01-01

    在界定建设工程预决算审核的概念及内容的基础上,从审核依据的完整和效力、审核的关键步骤等方面分析工程预决算审核中应注意的问题,并提出相应建议。最后提出建立激励机制,对审核进行有效管理和加强工程造价管理的建议。%Based on the concept and content of engineering budget and final account examination,analyzes the problems that claims attention in engineering budget and final account examination from the aspects of integrity and validity of examination basis,key steps of examination,then proposes the corresponding suggestions.Finally,suggests to establish prompting mechanism,which will help to manage effectively and strengthen the cost management.

  20. Modeling air quality over China: Results from the Panda project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katinka Petersen, Anna; Bouarar, Idir; Brasseur, Guy; Granier, Claire; Xie, Ying; Wang, Lili; Wang, Xuemei

    2015-04-01

    China faces strong air pollution problems related to rapid economic development in the past decade and increasing demand for energy. Air quality monitoring stations often report high levels of particle matter and ozone all over the country. Knowing its long-term health impacts, air pollution became then a pressing problem not only in China but also in other Asian countries. The PANDA project is a result of cooperation between scientists from Europe and China who joined their efforts for a better understanding of the processes controlling air pollution in China, improve methods for monitoring air quality and elaborate indicators in support of European and Chinese policies. A modeling system of air pollution is being setup within the PANDA project and include advanced global (MACC, EMEP) and regional (WRF-Chem, EMEP) meteorological and chemical models to analyze and monitor air quality in China. The poster describes the accomplishments obtained within the first year of the project. Model simulations for January and July 2010 are evaluated with satellite measurements (SCIAMACHY NO2 and MOPITT CO) and in-situ data (O3, CO, NOx, PM10 and PM2.5) observed at several surface stations in China. Using the WRF-Chem model, we investigate the sensitivity of the model performance to emissions (MACCity, HTAPv2), horizontal resolution (60km, 20km) and choice of initial and boundary conditions.

  1. Fuzzy MCDM Model for Risk Factor Selection in Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pejman Rezakhani

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk factor selection is an important step in a successful risk management plan. There are many risk factors in a construction project and by an effective and systematic risk selection process the most critical risks can be distinguished to have more attention. In this paper through a comprehensive literature survey, most significant risk factors in a construction project are classified in a hierarchical structure. For an effective risk factor selection, a modified rational multi criteria decision making model (MCDM is developed. This model is a consensus rule based model and has the optimization property of rational models. By applying fuzzy logic to this model, uncertainty factors in group decision making such as experts` influence weights, their preference and judgment for risk selection criteria will be assessed. Also an intelligent checking process to check the logical consistency of experts` preferences will be implemented during the decision making process. The solution inferred from this method is in the highest degree of acceptance of group members. Also consistency of individual preferences is checked by some inference rules. This is an efficient and effective approach to prioritize and select risks based on decisions made by group of experts in construction projects. The applicability of presented method is assessed through a case study.

  2. Models of Charity Donations and Project Funding in Social Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wojciechowski, Adam

    One of the key fundaments of building a society is common interest or shared aims of the group members. This research work is a try to analyze web-based services oriented towards money collection for various social and charity projects. The phenomenon of social founding is worth a closer look at because its success strongly depends on the ability to build an ad-hoc or persistent groups of people sharing their believes and willing to support external institutions or individuals. The paper presents a review of money collection sites, various models of donation and money collection process as well as ways how the projects' results are reported to their founders. There is also a proposal of money collection service, where donators are not charged until total declared help overheads required resources to complete the project. The risk of missing real donations for declared payments, after the collection is closed, can be assessed and minimized by building a social network.

  3. Low Energy Atomic Models Suggesting a Pilus Structure that could Account for Electrical Conductivity of Geobacter sulfurreducens Pili.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Ke; Malvankar, Nikhil S; Shu, Chuanjun; Martz, Eric; Lovley, Derek R; Sun, Xiao

    2016-03-22

    The metallic-like electrical conductivity of Geobacter sulfurreducens pili has been documented with multiple lines of experimental evidence, but there is only a rudimentary understanding of the structural features which contribute to this novel mode of biological electron transport. In order to determine if it was feasible for the pilin monomers of G. sulfurreducens to assemble into a conductive filament, theoretical energy-minimized models of Geobacter pili were constructed with a previously described approach, in which pilin monomers are assembled using randomized structural parameters and distance constraints. The lowest energy models from a specific group of predicted structures lacked a central channel, in contrast to previously existing pili models. In half of the no-channel models the three N-terminal aromatic residues of the pilin monomer are arranged in a potentially electrically conductive geometry, sufficiently close to account for the experimentally observed metallic like conductivity of the pili that has been attributed to overlapping pi-pi orbitals of aromatic amino acids. These atomic resolution models capable of explaining the observed conductive properties of Geobacter pili are a valuable tool to guide further investigation of the metallic-like conductivity of the pili, their role in biogeochemical cycling, and applications in bioenergy and bioelectronics.

  4. Bifurcation Analysis of an Existing Mathematical Model Reveals Novel Treatment Strategies and Suggests Potential Cure for Type 1 Diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Kenneth Hagde Mandrup; Ottesen, Johnny T.; Pociot, Flemming

    2014-01-01

    Type 1 diabetes is a disease with serious personal and socioeconomic consequences that has attracted the attention of modellers recently. But as models of this disease tend to be complicated, there has been only limited mathematical analysis to date. Here we address this problem by providing...... a bifurcation analysis of a previously published mathematical model for the early stages of type 1 diabetes in diabetes-prone NOD mice, which is based on the data available in the literature. We also show positivity and the existence of a family of attracting trapping regions in the positive 5D cone, converging...... towards a smaller trapping region, which is the intersection over the family. All these trapping regions are compact sets, and thus, practical weak persistence is guaranteed. We conclude our analysis by proposing 4 novel treatment strategies: increasing the phagocytic ability of resting macrophages...

  5. Didactical suggestion for a Dynamic Hybrid Intelligent e-Learning Environment (DHILE) applying the PENTHA ID Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    dall'Acqua, Luisa

    2011-08-01

    The teleology of our research is to propose a solution to the request of "innovative, creative teaching", proposing a methodology to educate creative Students in a society characterized by multiple reference points and hyper dynamic knowledge, continuously subject to reviews and discussions. We apply a multi-prospective Instructional Design Model (PENTHA ID Model), defined and developed by our research group, which adopts a hybrid pedagogical approach, consisting of elements of didactical connectivism intertwined with aspects of social constructivism and enactivism. The contribution proposes an e-course structure and approach, applying the theoretical design principles of the above mentioned ID Model, describing methods, techniques, technologies and assessment criteria for the definition of lesson modes in an e-course.

  6. On the hydrologic adjustment of climate-model projections: The potential pitfall of potential evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milly, P.C.D.; Dunne, K.A.

    2011-01-01

    Hydrologic models often are applied to adjust projections of hydroclimatic change that come from climate models. Such adjustment includes climate-bias correction, spatial refinement ("downscaling"), and consideration of the roles of hydrologic processes that were neglected in the climate model. Described herein is a quantitative analysis of the effects of hydrologic adjustment on the projections of runoff change associated with projected twenty-first-century climate change. In a case study including three climate models and 10 river basins in the contiguous United States, the authors find that relative (i.e., fractional or percentage) runoff change computed with hydrologic adjustment more often than not was less positive (or, equivalently, more negative) than what was projected by the climate models. The dominant contributor to this decrease in runoff was a ubiquitous change in runoff (median 211%) caused by the hydrologic model's apparent amplification of the climate-model-implied growth in potential evapotranspiration. Analysis suggests that the hydrologic model, on the basis of the empirical, temperature-based modified Jensen-Haise formula, calculates a change in potential evapotranspiration that is typically 3 times the change implied by the climate models, which explicitly track surface energy budgets. In comparison with the amplification of potential evapotranspiration, central tendencies of other contributions from hydrologic adjustment (spatial refinement, climate-bias adjustment, and process refinement) were relatively small. The authors' findings highlight the need for caution when projecting changes in potential evapotranspiration for use in hydrologic models or drought indices to evaluate climatechange impacts on water. Copyright ?? 2011, Paper 15-001; 35,952 words, 3 Figures, 0 Animations, 1 Tables.

  7. How Do Artifact Models Help Direct SPI Projects?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuhrmann, Marco; Richardson, Ita

    2015-01-01

    To overcome shortcomings associated with software process improvement (SPI), we previously recommended that process engineers focus on the artifacts to be developed in SPI projects. These artifacts should define desired outcomes, rather than specific methods. During this prior research, we...... developed a model for Artifact-based Software Process Improvement & Management (ArSPI). We are now carrying out studies to confirm our claims that ArSPI will provide benefits such as quality assurance. In this paper, we report on an experimental setting in which we developed and analyzed a strategy to use...... artifact models to direct process model improvement. We analyzed a process specification, the realized model, and the generated electronic process guide. We used ArSPI v0.9 as our process model and the Capability Maturity Model Integration (CMMI) as an external reference to provide a set of overall...

  8. Projection-based model reduction for contact problems

    CERN Document Server

    Balajewicz, Maciej; Farhat, Charbel

    2015-01-01

    Large scale finite element analysis requires model order reduction for computationally expensive applications such as optimization, parametric studies and control design. Although model reduction for nonlinear problems is an active area of research, a major hurdle is modeling and approximating contact problems. This manuscript introduces a projection-based model reduction approach for static and dynamic contact problems. In this approach, non-negative matrix factorization is utilized to optimally compress and strongly enforce positivity of contact forces in training simulation snapshots. Moreover, a greedy algorithm coupled with an error indicator is developed to efficiently construct parametrically robust low-order models. The proposed approach is successfully demonstrated for the model reduction of several two-dimensional elliptic and hyperbolic obstacle and self contact problems.

  9. Advanced Ground Systems Maintenance Physics Models For Diagnostics Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perotti, Jose M.

    2015-01-01

    The project will use high-fidelity physics models and simulations to simulate real-time operations of cryogenic and systems and calculate the status/health of the systems. The project enables the delivery of system health advisories to ground system operators. The capability will also be used to conduct planning and analysis of cryogenic system operations. This project will develop and implement high-fidelity physics-based modeling techniques tosimulate the real-time operation of cryogenics and other fluids systems and, when compared to thereal-time operation of the actual systems, provide assessment of their state. Physics-modelcalculated measurements (called “pseudo-sensors”) will be compared to the system real-timedata. Comparison results will be utilized to provide systems operators with enhanced monitoring ofsystems' health and status, identify off-nominal trends and diagnose system/component failures.This capability can also be used to conduct planning and analysis of cryogenics and other fluidsystems designs. This capability will be interfaced with the ground operations command andcontrol system as a part of the Advanced Ground Systems Maintenance (AGSM) project to helpassure system availability and mission success. The initial capability will be developed for theLiquid Oxygen (LO2) ground loading systems.

  10. Genetic and Functional Analyses of SHANK2 Mutations Suggest a Multiple Hit Model of Autism Spectrum Disorders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leblond, Claire S.; Heinrich, Jutta; Delorme, Richard; Proepper, Christian; Betancur, Catalina; Huguet, Guillaume; Konyukh, Marina; Chaste, Pauline; Ey, Elodie; Rastam, Maria; Anckarsäter, Henrik; Nygren, Gudrun; Gillberg, I. Carina; Melke, Jonas; Toro, Roberto; Regnault, Beatrice; Fauchereau, Fabien; Mercati, Oriane; Lemière, Nathalie; Skuse, David; Poot, Martin; Holt, Richard; Monaco, Anthony P.; Järvelä, Irma; Kantojärvi, Katri; Vanhala, Raija; Curran, Sarah; Collier, David A.; Bolton, Patrick; Chiocchetti, Andreas; Klauck, Sabine M.; Poustka, Fritz; Freitag, Christine M.; Waltes, Regina; Kopp, Marnie; Duketis, Eftichia; Bacchelli, Elena; Minopoli, Fiorella; Ruta, Liliana; Battaglia, Agatino; Mazzone, Luigi; Maestrini, Elena; Sequeira, Ana F.; Oliveira, Barbara; Vicente, Astrid; Oliveira, Guiomar; Pinto, Dalila; Scherer, Stephen W.; Zelenika, Diana; Delepine, Marc; Lathrop, Mark; Bonneau, Dominique; Guinchat, Vincent; Devillard, Françoise; Assouline, Brigitte; Mouren, Marie-Christine; Leboyer, Marion; Gillberg, Christopher; Boeckers, Tobias M.; Bourgeron, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    Autism spectrum disorders (ASD) are a heterogeneous group of neurodevelopmental disorders with a complex inheritance pattern. While many rare variants in synaptic proteins have been identified in patients with ASD, little is known about their effects at the synapse and their interactions with other genetic variations. Here, following the discovery of two de novo SHANK2 deletions by the Autism Genome Project, we identified a novel 421 kb de novo SHANK2 deletion in a patient with autism. We then sequenced SHANK2 in 455 patients with ASD and 431 controls and integrated these results with those reported by Berkel et al. 2010 (n = 396 patients and n = 659 controls). We observed a significant enrichment of variants affecting conserved amino acids in 29 of 851 (3.4%) patients and in 16 of 1,090 (1.5%) controls (P = 0.004, OR = 2.37, 95% CI = 1.23–4.70). In neuronal cell cultures, the variants identified in patients were associated with a reduced synaptic density at dendrites compared to the variants only detected in controls (P = 0.0013). Interestingly, the three patients with de novo SHANK2 deletions also carried inherited CNVs at 15q11–q13 previously associated with neuropsychiatric disorders. In two cases, the nicotinic receptor CHRNA7 was duplicated and in one case the synaptic translation repressor CYFIP1 was deleted. These results strengthen the role of synaptic gene dysfunction in ASD but also highlight the presence of putative modifier genes, which is in keeping with the “multiple hit model” for ASD. A better knowledge of these genetic interactions will be necessary to understand the complex inheritance pattern of ASD. PMID:22346768

  11. Toward Unanimous Projections for Sea Ice Using CMIP5 Multi-model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, S.; Christensen, J. H.; Langen, P. P.; Thejll, P.

    2015-12-01

    Coupled global climate models have been used to provide future climate projections as major objective tools based on physical laws that govern the dynamics and thermodynamics of the climate system. However, while climate models in general predict declines in Arctic sea ice cover (i.e., ice extent and volume) from late 20th century through the next decades in response to increase of anthropogenic forcing, the model simulated Arctic sea ice demonstrates considerable biases in both the mean and the declining trend in comparison with the observations over the satellite era (1979-present). The models also show wide inter-model spread in hindcast and projected sea ice decline, raising the question of uncertainty in model predicted polar climate. In order to address the model uncertainty in the Arctic sea ice projection, we analyze the Arctic sea ice extent under the context of surface air temperature (SAT) as simulated in the historical, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 experiments by 27 CMIP5 models. These 27 models are all we could obtain from the CMIP5 archive with sufficient gird information for processing the sea ice data. Unlike many previous studies in which only limited number of models were selected based on metrics of modeled sea ice characteristics for getting projected ice with reduced uncertainty, our analysis is applied to all model simulations with no discrimination. It is found that the changes in total Arctic sea ice in various seasons from one model are closely related to the changes in global mean SAT in the corresponding model. This relationship appears very similar in all models and agrees well with that in the observational data. In particular, the ratio of the total Arctic sea ice changes in March, September and annual mean with respect to the baseline climatology (1979-2008) are seen to linearly correlate to the global mean annual SAT anomaly, suggesting unanimous projection of the sea ice extent may be possible with this relationship. Further analysis is

  12. A Management Maturity Model (MMM for project-based organisational performance assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Craig Langston

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Common sense suggests that organisations are more likely to deliver successful projects if they have systems in place that reflect a mature project environment based on a culture of continuous improvement. This paper develops and discusses a Management Maturity Model (MMM to assess the maturity of project management organisations through a customisable, systematic, strategic and practical methodology inspired from the seminal work of Darwin, Deming, Drucker and Daniel. The model presented is relevant to organisations, such as construction and engineering companies, that prefer to use the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK™ Guide published by the Project Management Institute (PMI, but without the disadvantages of excessive time and cost commitments and a ‘one size fits all’ approach linked to rigid increments of maturity. It offers a game-changing advance in the application of project-based organisational performance assessment compared to existing market solutions that are unnecessarily complex. The feasibility of MMM is field-tested using a medium-sized data centre infrastructure firm in Tehran.

  13. Global Modeling and Projection of Short-Lived Climate Pollutants in an Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudo, K.; Takemura, T.; Klimont, Z.; Kurokawa, J.; Akimoto, H.

    2013-12-01

    In predicting and mitigating future global warming, short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) such as tropospheric ozone (O3), black carbon (BC), and other related components including CH4/VOCs and aerosols play crucial roles as well as long-lived species like CO2 or N2O. Several recent studies suggests that reduction of heating SLCPs (i.e., O3 and black carbon) together with CH4 can decrease and delay the expected future warming, and can be an alternative to CO2 mitigation (Shindell et al., 2012). However it should be noted that there are still large uncertainties in simulating SLCPs and their climate impacts. For instance, present global models generally have a severe tendency to underestimate BC especially in remote areas like the polar regions as shown by the recent model intercomparison project under the IPCC (ACCMIP/AeroCOM). This problem in global BC modeling, basically coming from aging and removal processes of BC, causes still a large uncertainty in the estimate of BC's atmospheric heating and climate impacts (Bond et al., 2013; Kerr et al., 2013). This study attempted to improve global simulation of BC by developing a new scheme for simulating aging process of BC and re-evaluate radiative forcing of BC in the framework of a chemistry-aerosol coupled climate model (Earth system model) MIROC-ESM-CHEM. Our improved model with the new aging scheme appears to relatively well reproduce the observed BC concentrations and seasonality in the Arctic/Antarctic region. The new model estimates radiative forcing of BC to be 0.83 W m-2 which is about two times larger than the estimate by our original model with no aging scheme (0.41 W m-2), or the model ensemble mean in the IPCC report. Using this model, future projection of SLCPs and their climate impacts is conducted following the recent IIASA emission scenarios for the year 2030 (Klimont et al., 2006; Cofala et al., 2007). Our simulation suggests that heating SLCPs components (O3, BC, and CH4) are significantly reduced

  14. Comparative modeling and molecular dynamics suggest high carboxylase activity of the Cyanobium sp. CACIAM14 RbcL protein.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siqueira, Andrei Santos; Lima, Alex Ranieri Jerônimo; Dall'Agnol, Leonardo Teixeira; de Azevedo, Juliana Simão Nina; da Silva Gonçalves Vianez, João Lídio; Gonçalves, Evonnildo Costa

    2016-03-01

    Rubisco catalyzes the first step reaction in the carbon fixation pathway, bonding atmospheric CO2/O2 to ribulose 1,5-bisphosphate; it is therefore considered one of the most important enzymes in the biosphere. Genetic modifications to increase the carboxylase activity of rubisco are a subject of great interest to agronomy and biotechnology, since this could increase the productivity of biomass in plants, algae and cyanobacteria and give better yields in crops and biofuel production. Thus, the aim of this study was to characterize in silico the catalytic domain of the rubisco large subunit (rbcL gene) of Cyanobium sp. CACIAM14, and identify target sites to improve enzyme affinity for ribulose 1,5-bisphosphate. A three-dimensional model was built using MODELLER 9.14, molecular dynamics was used to generate a 100 ns trajectory by AMBER12, and the binding free energy was calculated using MM-PBSA, MM-GBSA and SIE methods with alanine scanning. The model obtained showed characteristics of form-I rubisco, with 15 beta sheets and 19 alpha helices, and maintained the highly conserved catalytic site encompassing residues Lys175, Lys177, Lys201, Asp203, and Glu204. The binding free energy of the enzyme-substrate complexation of Cyanobium sp. CACIAM14 showed values around -10 kcal mol(-1) using the SIE method. The most important residues for the interaction with ribulose 1,5-bisphosphate were Arg295 followed by Lys334. The generated model was successfully validated, remaining stable during the whole simulation, and demonstrated characteristics of enzymes with high carboxylase activity. The binding analysis revealed candidates for directed mutagenesis sites to improve rubisco's affinity.

  15. Analysis and modeling of heat-labile enterotoxins of Escherichia coli suggests a novel space with insights into receptor preference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishna Raja, M; Ghosh, Asit Ranjan; Vino, S; Sajitha Lulu, S

    2015-01-01

    Features of heat-labile enterotoxins of Escherichia coli which make them fit to use as novel receptors for antidiarrheals are not completely explored. Data-set of 14 different serovars of enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli producing heat-labile toxins were taken from NCBI Genbank database and used in the study. Sequence analysis showed mutations in different subunits and also at their interface residues. As these toxins lack crystallography structures, homology modeling using Modeller 9.11 led to the structural approximation for the E. coli producing heat-labile toxins. Interaction of modeled toxin subunits with proanthocyanidin, an antidiarrheal showed several strong hydrogen bonding interactions at the cost of minimized energy. The hits were subsequently characterized by molecular dynamics simulation studies to monitor their binding stabilities. This study looks into novel space where the ligand can choose the receptor preference not as a whole but as an individual subunit. Mutation at interface residues and interaction among subunits along with the binding of ligand to individual subunits would help to design a non-toxic labile toxin and also to improve the therapeutics.

  16. Synthetic biology between challenges and risks: suggestions for a model of governance and a regulatory framework, based on fundamental rights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colussi, Ilaria Anna

    2013-01-01

    This paper deals with the emerging synthetic biology, its challenges and risks, and tries to design a model for the governance and regulation of the field. The model is called of "prudent vigilance" (inspired by the report about synthetic biology, drafted by the U.S. Presidential Commission on Bioethics, 2010), and it entails (a) an ongoing and periodically revised process of assessment and management of all the risks and concerns, and (b) the adoption of policies - taken through "hard law" and "soft law" sources - that are based on the principle of proportionality (among benefits and risks), on a reasonable balancing between different interests and rights at stake, and are oriented by a constitutional frame, which is represented by the protection of fundamental human rights emerging in the field of synthetic biology (right to life, right to health, dignity, freedom of scientific research, right to environment). After the theoretical explanation of the model, its operability is "checked", by considering its application with reference to only one specific risk brought up by synthetic biology - biosecurity risk, i.e. the risk of bioterrorism.

  17. Regional climate model data used within the SWURVE project – 1: projected changes in seasonal patterns and estimation of PET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate data for studies within the SWURVE (Sustainable Water: Uncertainty, Risk and Vulnerability in Europe project, assessing the risk posed by future climatic change to various hydrological and hydraulic systems were obtained from the regional climate model HadRM3H, developed at the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office. This paper gives some background to HadRM3H; it also presents anomaly maps of the projected future changes in European temperature, rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET, estimated using a variant of the Penman formula. The future simulations of temperature and rainfall, following the SRES A2 emissions scenario, suggest that most of Europe will experience warming in all seasons, with heavier precipitation in winter in much of western Europe (except for central and northern parts of the Scandinavian mountains and drier summers in most parts of western and central Europe (except for the north-west and the eastern part of the Baltic Sea. Particularly large temperature anomalies (>6°C are projected for north-east Europe in winter and for southern Europe, Asia Minor and parts of Russia in summer. The projected PET displayed very large increases in summer for a region extending from southern France to Russia. The unrealistically large values could be the result of an enhanced hydrological cycle in HadRM3H, affecting several of the input parameters to the PET calculation. To avoid problems with hydrological modelling schemes, PET was re-calculated, using empirical relationships derived from observational values of temperature and PET.

  18. Advancing population ecology with integral projection models: a practical guide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Merow, Cory; Dahlgren, Johan; Metcall, C. Jessica E.;

    2014-01-01

    (e.g., environment). By combining regressions of vital rates, an IPM provides mechanistic insight into emergent ecological patterns such as population dynamics, species geographic distributions, or life history strategies. Here, we review important resources for building IPMs and provide......Integral Projection Models (IPMs) use information on how an individual's state influences its vital rates - survival, growth and reproduction - to make population projections. IPMs are constructed from regression models predicting vital rates from state variables (e.g., size or age) and covariates...... a comprehensive guide, with extensive R code, for their construction. IPMs can be applied to any stage-structured population; here we illustrate IPMs for a series of plant life histories of increasing complexity and biological realism, highlighting the utility of various regression methods for capturing...

  19. A Hybrid Program Projects Selection Model for Nonprofit TV Stations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuei-Lun Chang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study develops a hybrid multiple criteria decision making (MCDM model to select program projects for nonprofit TV stations on the basis of managers’ perceptions. By the concept of balanced scorecard (BSC and corporate social responsibility (CSR, we collect criteria for selecting the best program project. Fuzzy Delphi method, which can lead to better criteria selection, is used to modify criteria. Next, considering the interdependence among the selection criteria, analytic network process (ANP is then used to obtain the weights of them. To avoid calculation and additional pairwise comparisons of ANP, technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS is used to rank the alternatives. A case study is presented to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model.

  20. Influence of climate model variability on projected Arctic shipping futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephenson, Scott R.; Smith, Laurence C.

    2015-11-01

    Though climate models exhibit broadly similar agreement on key long-term trends, they have significant temporal and spatial differences due to intermodel variability. Such variability should be considered when using climate models to project the future marine Arctic. Here we present multiple scenarios of 21st-century Arctic marine access as driven by sea ice output from 10 CMIP5 models known to represent well the historical trend and climatology of Arctic sea ice. Optimal vessel transits from North America and Europe to the Bering Strait are estimated for two periods representing early-century (2011-2035) and mid-century (2036-2060) conditions under two forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5/8.5), assuming Polar Class 6 and open-water vessels with medium and no ice-breaking capability, respectively. Results illustrate that projected shipping viability of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and Northwest Passage (NWP) depends critically on model choice. The eastern Arctic will remain the most reliably accessible marine space for trans-Arctic shipping by mid-century, while outcomes for the NWP are particularly model-dependent. Omitting three models (GFDL-CM3, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and MPI-ESM-MR), our results would indicate minimal NWP potential even for routes from North America. Furthermore, the relative importance of the NSR will diminish over time as the number of viable central Arctic routes increases gradually toward mid-century. Compared to vessel class, climate forcing plays a minor role. These findings reveal the importance of model choice in devising projections for strategic planning by governments, environmental agencies, and the global maritime industry.

  1. Including hydrological self-regulating processes in peatland models: Effects on peatmoss drought projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nijp, Jelmer J; Metselaar, Klaas; Limpens, Juul; Teutschbein, Claudia; Peichl, Matthias; Nilsson, Mats B; Berendse, Frank; van der Zee, Sjoerd E A T M

    2017-02-15

    The water content of the topsoil is one of the key factors controlling biogeochemical processes, greenhouse gas emissions and biosphere - atmosphere interactions in many ecosystems, particularly in northern peatlands. In these wetland ecosystems, the water content of the photosynthetic active peatmoss layer is crucial for ecosystem functioning and carbon sequestration, and is sensitive to future shifts in rainfall and drought characteristics. Current peatland models differ in the degree in which hydrological feedbacks are included, but how this affects peatmoss drought projections is unknown. The aim of this paper was to systematically test whether the level of hydrological detail in models could bias projections of water content and drought stress for peatmoss in northern peatlands using downscaled projections for rainfall and potential evapotranspiration in the current (1991-2020) and future climate (2061-2090). We considered four model variants that either include or exclude moss (rain)water storage and peat volume change, as these are two central processes in the hydrological self-regulation of peatmoss carpets. Model performance was validated using field data of a peatland in northern Sweden. Including moss water storage as well as peat volume change resulted in a significant improvement of model performance, despite the extra parameters added. The best performance was achieved if both processes were included. Including moss water storage and peat volume change consistently reduced projected peatmoss drought frequency with >50%, relative to the model excluding both processes. Projected peatmoss drought frequency in the growing season was 17% smaller under future climate than current climate, but was unaffected by including the hydrological self-regulating processes. Our results suggest that ignoring these two fine-scale processes important in hydrological self-regulation of northern peatlands will have large consequences for projected climate change impact on

  2. Projected shell model study of band structure of 90Nb

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Amit; Singh, Dhanvir; Gupta, Anuradha; Singh, Suram; Bharti, Arun

    2016-05-01

    A systematic study of two-quasiparticle bands of the odd-odd 90Nb nucleus is performed using the projected shell model approach. Yrast band with some other bands have been obtained and back-bending in moment of inertia has also been calculated and compared with the available experimental. On comparing the available experimental data, it is found that the treatment with PSM provides a satisfactory explanation of the available data.

  3. Modeling of an Electron Injector for the AWAKE Project

    CERN Document Server

    Mete, O; Apsimon, R; Burt, G; Doebert, S; Fiorito, R; Welsch, C

    2015-01-01

    Particle-in-cell simulations were performed by using PARMELA to characterise an electron injector with a booster linac for the AWAKE project in order to provide the baseline specifications required by the plasma wakefield experiments. Tolerances and errors were investigated. A 3 GHz travelling wave structure designed by using CST code. Particles were tracked by using the field maps acquired from these electromagnetic simulations. These results are pre- sented in comparison with the generic accelerating structure model within PARMELA.

  4. Non-commutative Complex Projective Spaces and the Standard Model

    OpenAIRE

    Dolan, Brian P

    2003-01-01

    The standard model fermion spectrum, including a right handed neutrino, can be obtained as a zero-mode of the Dirac operator on a space which is the product of complex projective spaces of complex dimension two and three. The construction requires the introduction of topologically non-trivial background gauge fields. By borrowing from ideas in Connes' non-commutative geometry and making the complex spaces `fuzzy' a matrix approximation to the fuzzy space allows for three generations to emerge...

  5. Modeling of the human rhinovirus C capsid suggests a novel topography with insights on receptor preference and immunogenicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basta, Holly A; Sgro, Jean-Yves; Palmenberg, Ann C

    2014-01-05

    Features of human rhinovirus (RV)-C virions that allow them to use novel cell receptors and evade immune responses are unknown. Unlike the RV-A+B, these isolates cannot be propagated in typical culture systems or grown for structure studies. Comparative sequencing, I-TASSER, MODELLER, ROBETTA, and refined alignment techniques led to a structural approximation for C15 virions, based on the extensive, resolved RV-A+B datasets. The model predicts that all RV-C VP1 proteins are shorter by 21 residues relative to the RV-A, and 35 residues relative to the RV-B, effectively shaving the RV 5-fold plateau from the particle. There are major alterations in VP1 neutralizing epitopes and the structural determinants for ICAM-1 and LDLR receptors. The VP2 and VP3 elements are similar among all RV, but the loss of sequence "words" contributing Nim1ab has increased the apparent selective pressure among the RV-C to fix mutations elsewhere in the VP1, creating a possible compensatory epitope.

  6. Identification, modeling, and characterization studies of Tetrahymena thermophila myosin FERM domains suggests a conserved core fold but functional differences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Che L; Singh, Shaneen M

    2015-11-01

    Myosins (MYO) define a superfamily of motor proteins which facilitate movement along cytoskeletal actin filaments in an ATP-dependent manner. To date, over 30 classes of myosin have been defined that vary in their roles and distribution across different taxa. The multidomain tail of myosin is responsible for the observed functional differences in different myosin classes facilitating differential binding to different cargos. One domain found in this region, the FERM domain, is found in several diverse proteins and is involved in many biological functions ranging from cell adhesion and actin-driven cytoskeleton assembly to cell signaling. Recently, new classes of unconventional myosin have been identified in Tetrahymena thermophila. In this study, we have identified, modeled, and characterized eight FERM domains from the unconventional T. thermophila myosins as their complete functional MyTH4-FERM cassettes. Our results reveal notable sequence, structural, and electrostatic differences between T. thermophila and other characterized FERM domains. Specifically, T. thermophila FERM domains contain helical inserts or extensions, which contribute to significant differences in surface electrostatic profiles of T. thermophila myosin FERMs when compared to the conventional FERM domains. Analyses of the modeled domains reveal differences in key functional residues as well as phosphoinositide-binding signatures and affinities. The work presented here broadens the scope of our understanding of myosin classes and their inherent functions, and provides a platform for experimentalists to design rational experimental studies to test the functional roles for T. thermophila myosins.

  7. Lithospheric scale model of Merida Andes, Venezuela (GIAME Project)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmitz, M.; Orihuela, N. D.; Klarica, S.; Gil, E.; Levander, A.; Audemard, F. A.; Mazuera, F.; Avila, J.

    2013-05-01

    Merida Andes (MA) is one of the most important orogenic belt in Venezuela and represents the northern culmination of South America Andes. During the last 60 years, several models have been proposed to explain the shallow and deep structure, using different geological, geophysical, seismological, geochemical and petrologic concepts; nevertheless, most of them have applied local observation windows, and do not represent the major structure of MA. Therefore, a multidisciplinary research group, coordinated by FUNVISIS, in close cooperation with UCV, ULA and PDVSA, is proposed in order to get the outlined goals in the project entitled GIAME ("Geociencia Integral de los Andes de MErida") was established, which aims to generate a lithospheric scale model and the development of a temporal dynamic model for the MA. As a base for lithospheric investigations of the Merida Andes, we are proposing three wide angle seismic profiles across the orogen on three representative sites, in order to determine the inner structure and its relation with the orogen's gravimetric root. To the date, there are no seismic studies at lithospheric scale which cross MA. The wide angle seismic will be complemented with the re-processing and re-interpretation of existing reflection seismic data, which will allow to establish a relationship between MA and its associated flexural basins (Maracaibo and Barinas-Apure basins). Depending on the results of the VENCORP Project (VENezuelan COntinental Reflection Profiling), which might show some reliable results about crustal features and Moho reflectors along three long seismic profiles at Caribbean Moutain system, a reflection seismic profile across the central portion of MA is proposed. Additional tasks, consisting in MA quaternary deformation studies, using research methods like neotectonics and paleoseismology, georadar, numerical modeling, cinematic GPS, SAR interferometry, thermocronology, detailed studies on regional geology, flexural modeling

  8. In silico modeling of Itk activation kinetics in thymocytes suggests competing positive and negative IP4 mediated feedbacks increase robustness.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sayak Mukherjee

    Full Text Available The inositol-phosphate messenger inositol(1,3,4,5tetrakisphosphate (IP4 is essential for thymocyte positive selection by regulating plasma-membrane association of the protein tyrosine kinase Itk downstream of the T cell receptor (TCR. IP4 can act as a soluble analog of the phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PI3K membrane lipid product phosphatidylinositol(3,4,5trisphosphate (PIP3. PIP3 recruits signaling proteins such as Itk to cellular membranes by binding to PH and other domains. In thymocytes, low-dose IP4 binding to the Itk PH domain surprisingly promoted and high-dose IP4 inhibited PIP3 binding of Itk PH domains. However, the mechanisms that underlie the regulation of membrane recruitment of Itk by IP4 and PIP3 remain unclear. The distinct Itk PH domain ability to oligomerize is consistent with a cooperative-allosteric mode of IP4 action. However, other possibilities cannot be ruled out due to difficulties in quantitatively measuring the interactions between Itk, IP4 and PIP3, and in generating non-oligomerizing Itk PH domain mutants. This has hindered a full mechanistic understanding of how IP4 controls Itk function. By combining experimentally measured kinetics of PLCγ1 phosphorylation by Itk with in silico modeling of multiple Itk signaling circuits and a maximum entropy (MaxEnt based computational approach, we show that those in silico models which are most robust against variations of protein and lipid expression levels and kinetic rates at the single cell level share a cooperative-allosteric mode of Itk regulation by IP4 involving oligomeric Itk PH domains at the plasma membrane. This identifies MaxEnt as an excellent tool for quantifying robustness for complex TCR signaling circuits and provides testable predictions to further elucidate a controversial mechanism of PIP3 signaling.

  9. Kinetic properties of mouse pancreatic lipase-related protein-2 suggest the mouse may not model human fat digestion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Xunjun; Ross, Leah E; Miller, Rita A; Lowe, Mark E

    2011-05-01

    Genetically engineered mice have been employed to understand the role of lipases in dietary fat digestion with the expectation that the results can be extrapolated to humans. However, little is known about the properties of mouse pancreatic triglyceride lipase (mPTL) and pancreatic lipase-related protein-2 (mPLRP2). In this study, both lipases were expressed in Pichia Pastoris GS115, purified to near homogeneity, and their properties were characterized. Mouse PTL displayed the kinetics typical of PTL from other species. Like mPTL, mPLRP2 exhibited strong activity against various triglycerides. In contrast to mPTL, mPLRP2 was not inhibited by increasing bile salt concentration. Colipase stimulated mPLRP2 activity 2- to 4-fold. Additionally, mPTL absolutely required colipase for absorption to a lipid interface, whereas mPLRP2 absorbed fully without colipase. mPLRP2 had full activity in the presence of BSA, whereas BSA completely inhibited mPTL unless colipase was present. All of these properties of mPLRP2 differ from the properties of human PLRP2 (hPLRP2). Furthermore, mPLRP2 appears capable of compensating for mPTL deficiency. These findings suggest that the molecular mechanisms of dietary fat digestion may be different in humans and mice. Thus, extrapolation of dietary fat digestion in mice to humans should be done with care.

  10. Distribution of dipeptide repeat proteins in cellular models and C9orf72 mutation cases suggests link to transcriptional silencing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schludi, Martin H; May, Stephanie; Grässer, Friedrich A; Rentzsch, Kristin; Kremmer, Elisabeth; Küpper, Clemens; Klopstock, Thomas; Arzberger, Thomas; Edbauer, Dieter

    2015-10-01

    A massive expansion of a GGGGCC repeat upstream of the C9orf72 coding region is the most common known cause of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and frontotemporal dementia. Despite its intronic localization and lack of a canonical start codon, both strands are translated into aggregating dipeptide repeat (DPR) proteins: poly-GA, poly-GP, poly-GR, poly-PR and poly-PA. To address conflicting findings on the predominant toxicity of the different DPR species in model systems, we compared the expression pattern of the DPR proteins in rat primary neurons and postmortem brain and spinal cord of C9orf72 mutation patients. Only poly-GA overexpression closely mimicked the p62-positive neuronal cytoplasmic inclusions commonly observed for all DPR proteins in patients. In contrast, overexpressed poly-GR and poly-PR formed nucleolar p62-negative inclusions. In patients, most of the less common neuronal intranuclear DPR inclusions were para-nucleolar and p62 positive. Neuronal nucleoli in C9orf72 cases showed normal size and morphology regardless of the presence of poly-GR and poly-PR inclusions arguing against widespread nucleolar stress, reported in cellular models. Colocalization of para-nucleolar DPR inclusions with heterochromatin and a marker of transcriptional repression (H3K9me2) indicates a link to gene transcription. In contrast, we detected numerous intranuclear DPR inclusions not associated with nucleolar structures in ependymal and subependymal cells. In patients, neuronal inclusions of poly-GR, poly-GP and the poly-GA interacting protein Unc119 were less abundant than poly-GA inclusions, but showed similar regional and subcellular distribution. Regardless of neurodegeneration, all inclusions were most abundant in neocortex, hippocampus and thalamus, with few inclusions in brain stem and spinal cord. In the granular cell layer of the cerebellum, poly-GA and Unc119 inclusions were significantly more abundant in cases with FTLD than in cases with MND and FTLD/MND. Poly

  11. Expression of venom gene homologs in diverse python tissues suggests a new model for the evolution of snake venom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes-Velasco, Jacobo; Card, Daren C; Andrew, Audra L; Shaney, Kyle J; Adams, Richard H; Schield, Drew R; Casewell, Nicholas R; Mackessy, Stephen P; Castoe, Todd A

    2015-01-01

    Snake venom gene evolution has been studied intensively over the past several decades, yet most previous studies have lacked the context of complete snake genomes and the full context of gene expression across diverse snake tissues. We took a novel approach to studying snake venom evolution by leveraging the complete genome of the Burmese python, including information from tissue-specific patterns of gene expression. We identified the orthologs of snake venom genes in the python genome, and conducted detailed analysis of gene expression of these venom homologs to identify patterns that differ between snake venom gene families and all other genes. We found that venom gene homologs in the python are expressed in many different tissues outside of oral glands, which illustrates the pitfalls of using transcriptomic data alone to define "venom toxins." We hypothesize that the python may represent an ancestral state prior to major venom development, which is supported by our finding that the expansion of venom gene families is largely restricted to highly venomous caenophidian snakes. Therefore, the python provides insight into biases in which genes were recruited for snake venom systems. Python venom homologs are generally expressed at lower levels, have higher variance among tissues, and are expressed in fewer organs compared with all other python genes. We propose a model for the evolution of snake venoms in which venom genes are recruited preferentially from genes with particular expression profile characteristics, which facilitate a nearly neutral transition toward specialized venom system expression.

  12. Stochastic modelling suggests that an elevated superoxide anion - hydrogen peroxide ratio can drive extravascular phagocyte transmigration by lamellipodium formation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundu, Siddhartha

    2016-10-21

    Chemotaxis, integrates diverse intra- and inter-cellular molecular processes into a purposeful patho-physiological response; the operatic rules of which, remain speculative. Here, I surmise, that superoxide anion induced directional motility, in a responding cell, results from a quasi pathway between the stimulus, surrounding interstitium, and its biochemical repertoire. The epochal event in the mounting of an inflammatory response, is the extravascular transmigration of a phagocyte competent cell towards the site of injury, secondary to the development of a lamellipodium. This stochastic-to-markovian process conversion, is initiated by the cytosolic-ROS of the damaged cell, but is maintained by the inverse association of a de novo generated pool of self-sustaining superoxide anions and sub-critical hydrogen peroxide levels. Whilst, the exponential rise of O2(.-) is secondary to the focal accumulation of higher order lipid raft-Rac1/2-actin oligomers; O2(.-) mediated inactivation and redistribution of ECSOD, accounts for the minimal concentration of H2O2 that the phagocyte experiences. The net result of this reciprocal association between ROS/ RNS members, is the prolonged perturbation and remodeling of the cytoskeleton and plasma membrane, a prelude to chemotactic migration. The manuscript also describes the significance of stochastic modeling, in the testing of plausible molecular hypotheses of observable phenomena in complex biological systems.

  13. Platypus globin genes and flanking loci suggest a new insertional model for beta-globin evolution in birds and mammals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Vidushi S; Cooper, Steven J B; Deakin, Janine E; Fulton, Bob; Graves, Tina; Warren, Wesley C; Wilson, Richard K; Graves, Jennifer A M

    2008-07-25

    Vertebrate alpha (alpha)- and beta (beta)-globin gene families exemplify the way in which genomes evolve to produce functional complexity. From tandem duplication of a single globin locus, the alpha- and beta-globin clusters expanded, and then were separated onto different chromosomes. The previous finding of a fossil beta-globin gene (omega) in the marsupial alpha-cluster, however, suggested that duplication of the alpha-beta cluster onto two chromosomes, followed by lineage-specific gene loss and duplication, produced paralogous alpha- and beta-globin clusters in birds and mammals. Here we analyse genomic data from an egg-laying monotreme mammal, the platypus (Ornithorhynchus anatinus), to explore haemoglobin evolution at the stem of the mammalian radiation. The platypus alpha-globin cluster (chromosome 21) contains embryonic and adult alpha- globin genes, a beta-like omega-globin gene, and the GBY globin gene with homology to cytoglobin, arranged as 5'-zeta-zeta'-alphaD-alpha3-alpha2-alpha1-omega-GBY-3'. The platypus beta-globin cluster (chromosome 2) contains single embryonic and adult globin genes arranged as 5'-epsilon-beta-3'. Surprisingly, all of these globin genes were expressed in some adult tissues. Comparison of flanking sequences revealed that all jawed vertebrate alpha-globin clusters are flanked by MPG-C16orf35 and LUC7L, whereas all bird and mammal beta-globin clusters are embedded in olfactory genes. Thus, the mammalian alpha- and beta-globin clusters are orthologous to the bird alpha- and beta-globin clusters respectively. We propose that alpha- and beta-globin clusters evolved from an ancient MPG-C16orf35-alpha-beta-GBY-LUC7L arrangement 410 million years ago. A copy of the original beta (represented by omega in marsupials and monotremes) was inserted into an array of olfactory genes before the amniote radiation (>315 million years ago), then duplicated and diverged to form orthologous clusters of beta-globin genes with different expression

  14. Platypus globin genes and flanking loci suggest a new insertional model for beta-globin evolution in birds and mammals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Warren Wesley C

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Vertebrate alpha (α- and beta (β-globin gene families exemplify the way in which genomes evolve to produce functional complexity. From tandem duplication of a single globin locus, the α- and β-globin clusters expanded, and then were separated onto different chromosomes. The previous finding of a fossil β-globin gene (ω in the marsupial α-cluster, however, suggested that duplication of the α-β cluster onto two chromosomes, followed by lineage-specific gene loss and duplication, produced paralogous α- and β-globin clusters in birds and mammals. Here we analyse genomic data from an egg-laying monotreme mammal, the platypus (Ornithorhynchus anatinus, to explore haemoglobin evolution at the stem of the mammalian radiation. Results The platypus α-globin cluster (chromosome 21 contains embryonic and adult α- globin genes, a β-like ω-globin gene, and the GBY globin gene with homology to cytoglobin, arranged as 5'-ζ-ζ'-αD-α3-α2-α1-ω-GBY-3'. The platypus β-globin cluster (chromosome 2 contains single embryonic and adult globin genes arranged as 5'-ε-β-3'. Surprisingly, all of these globin genes were expressed in some adult tissues. Comparison of flanking sequences revealed that all jawed vertebrate α-globin clusters are flanked by MPG-C16orf35 and LUC7L, whereas all bird and mammal β-globin clusters are embedded in olfactory genes. Thus, the mammalian α- and β-globin clusters are orthologous to the bird α- and β-globin clusters respectively. Conclusion We propose that α- and β-globin clusters evolved from an ancient MPG-C16orf35-α-β-GBY-LUC7L arrangement 410 million years ago. A copy of the original β (represented by ω in marsupials and monotremes was inserted into an array of olfactory genes before the amniote radiation (>315 million years ago, then duplicated and diverged to form orthologous clusters of β-globin genes with different expression profiles in different lineages.

  15. Integrative neural networks models for stream assessment in restoration projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gazendam, Ed; Gharabaghi, Bahram; Ackerman, Josef D.; Whiteley, Hugh

    2016-05-01

    Stream-habitat assessment for evaluation of restoration projects requires the examination of many parameters, both watershed-scale and reach-scale, to incorporate the complex non-linear effects of geomorphic, riparian, watershed and hydrologic factors on aquatic ecosystems. Rapid geomorphic assessment tools used by many jurisdictions to assess natural channel design projects seldom include watershed-level parameters, which have been shown to have a significant effect on benthic habitat in stream systems. In this study, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models were developed to integrate complex non-linear relationships between the aquatic ecosystem health indices and key watershed-scale and reach-scale parameters. Physical stream parameters, based on QHEI parameters, and watershed characteristics data were collected at 112 sites on 62 stream systems located in Southern Ontario. Benthic data were collected separately and benthic invertebrate summary indices, specifically Hilsenhoff's Biotic Index (HBI) and Richness, were determined. The ANN models were trained on the randomly selected 3/4 of the dataset of 112 streams in Ontario, Canada and validated on the remaining 1/4. The R2 values for the developed ANN model predictions were 0.86 for HBI and 0.92 for Richness. Sensitivity analysis of the trained ANN models revealed that Richness was directly proportional to Erosion and Riparian Width and inversely proportional to Floodplain Quality and Substrate parameters. HBI was directly proportional to Velocity Types and Erosion and inversely proportional to Substrate, % Treed and 1:2 Year Flood Flow parameters. The ANN models can be useful tools for watershed managers in stream assessment and restoration projects by allowing consideration of watershed properties in the stream assessment.

  16. Modeling Pathogenic Mutations of Human Twinkle in Drosophila Suggests an Apoptosis Role in Response to Mitochondrial Defects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez-Martinez, Alvaro; Calleja, Manuel; Peralta, Susana; Matsushima, Yuichi; Hernandez-Sierra, Rosana; Whitworth, Alexander J.; Kaguni, Laurie S.; Garesse, Rafael

    2012-01-01

    The human gene C10orf2 encodes the mitochondrial replicative DNA helicase Twinkle, mutations of which are responsible for a significant fraction of cases of autosomal dominant progressive external ophthalmoplegia (adPEO), a human mitochondrial disease caused by defects in intergenomic communication. We report the analysis of orthologous mutations in the Drosophila melanogaster mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) helicase gene, d-mtDNA helicase. Increased expression of wild type d-mtDNA helicase using the UAS-GAL4 system leads to an increase in mtDNA copy number throughout adult life without any noteworthy phenotype, whereas overexpression of d-mtDNA helicase containing the K388A mutation in the helicase active site results in a severe depletion of mtDNA and a lethal phenotype. Overexpression of two d-mtDNA helicase variants equivalent to two human adPEO mutations shows differential effects. The A442P mutation exhibits a dominant negative effect similar to that of the active site mutant. In contrast, overexpression of d-mtDNA helicase containing the W441C mutation results in a slight decrease in mtDNA copy number during the third instar larval stage, and a moderate decrease in life span in the adult population. Overexpression of d-mtDNA helicase containing either the K388A or A442P mutations causes a mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation (OXPHOS) defect that significantly reduces cell proliferation. The mitochondrial impairment caused by these mutations promotes apoptosis, arguing that mitochondria regulate programmed cell death in Drosophila. Our study of d-mtDNA helicase overexpression provides a tractable Drosophila model for understanding the cellular and molecular effects of human adPEO mutations. PMID:22952820

  17. Projected changes in precipitation intensity and frequency over complex topography: a multi-model perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Andreas; Keller, Denise; Liniger, Mark; Rajczak, Jan; Schär, Christoph; Appenzeller, Christof

    2014-05-01

    Fundamental changes in the hydrological cycle are expected in a future warmer climate. This is of particular relevance for the Alpine region, as a source and reservoir of several major rivers in Europe and being prone to extreme events such as floodings. For this region, climate change assessments based on the ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) project a significant decrease in summer mean precipitation under the A1B emission scenario by the mid-to-end of this century, while winter mean precipitation is expected to slightly rise. From an impact perspective, projected changes in seasonal means, however, are often insufficient to adequately address the multifaceted challenges of climate change adaptation. In this study, we revisit the full matrix of the ENSEMBLES RCM projections regarding changes in frequency and intensity, precipitation-type (convective versus stratiform) and temporal structure (wet/dry spells and transition probabilities) over Switzerland and surroundings. As proxies for raintype changes, we rely on the model parameterized convective and large-scale precipitation components. Part of the analysis involves a Bayesian multi-model combination algorithm to infer changes from the multi-model ensemble. The analysis suggests a summer drying that evolves altitude-specific: over low-land regions it is associated with wet-day frequency decreases of convective and large-scale precipitation, while over elevated regions it is primarily associated with a decline in large-scale precipitation only. As a consequence, almost all the models project an increase in the convective fraction at elevated Alpine altitudes. The decrease in the number of wet days during summer is accompanied by decreases (increases) in multi-day wet (dry) spells. This shift in multi-day episodes also lowers the likelihood of short dry spell occurrence in all of the models. For spring and autumn the combined multi-model projections indicate higher mean precipitation intensity north of the

  18. How primordial is the structure of comet 67P?. Combined collisional and dynamical models suggest a late formation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jutzi, M.; Benz, W.; Toliou, A.; Morbidelli, A.; Brasser, R.

    2017-01-01

    Context. There is an active debate about whether the properties of comets as observed today are primordial or, alternatively, if they are a result of collisional evolution or other processes. Aims: We investigate the effects of collisions on a comet with a structure like 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (67P). We develop scaling laws for the critical specific impact energies Qreshape required for a significant shape alteration. These are then used in simulations of the combined dynamical and collisional evolution of comets in order to study the survival probability of a primordially formed object with a shape like 67P. Although the focus of this work is on a structure of this kind, the analysis is also performed for more generic bi-lobe shapes, for which we define the critical specific energy Qbil. The simulation outcomes are also analyzed in terms of impact heating and the evolution of the porosity. Methods: The effects of impacts on comet 67P are studied using a state-of-the-art smooth particle hydrodynamics shock physics code. In the 3D simulations, a publicly available shape model of 67P is applied and a range of impact conditions and material properties are investigated. The resulting critical specific impact energy Qreshape (as well as Qbil for generic bi-lobe shapes) defines a minimal projectile size which is used to compute the number of shape-changing collisions in a set of dynamical simulations. These simulations follow the dispersion of the trans-Neptunian disk during the giant planet instability, the formation of a scattered disk, and produce 87 objects that penetrate into the inner solar system with orbits consistent with the observed JFC population. The collisional evolution before the giant planet instability is not considered here. Hence, our study is conservative in its estimation of the number of collisions. Results: We find that in any scenario considered here, comet 67P would have experienced a significant number of shape-changing collisions, if it

  19. Musculoskeletal Modeling Component of the NASA Digital Astronaut Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewandowski, B. E.; Pennline, J. A.; Stalker, A. R.; Mulugeta, L.; Myers, J. G.

    2011-01-01

    The NASA Digital Astronaut Project s (DAP) objective is to provide computational tools that support research of the physiological response to low gravity environments and analyses of how changes cause health and safety risks to the astronauts and to the success of the mission. The spaceflight risk associated with muscle atrophy is impaired performance due to reduced muscle mass, strength and endurance. Risks of early onset of osteoporosis and bone fracture are among the spaceflight risks associated with loss of bone mineral density. METHODS: Tools under development include a neuromuscular model, a biomechanical model and a bone remodeling model. The neuromuscular model will include models of neuromuscular drive, muscle atrophy, fiber morphology and metabolic processes as a function of time in space. Human movement will be modeled with the biomechanical model, using muscle and bone model parameters at various states. The bone remodeling model will allow analysis of bone turnover, loss and adaptation. A comprehensive trade study was completed to identify the current state of the art in musculoskeletal modeling. The DAP musculoskeletal models will be developed using a combination of existing commercial software and academic research codes identified in the study, which will be modified for use in human spaceflight research. These individual models are highly dependent upon each other and will be integrated together once they reach sufficient levels of maturity. ANALYSES: The analyses performed with these models will include comparison of different countermeasure exercises for optimizing effectiveness and comparison of task requirements and the state of strength and endurance of a crew member at a particular time in a mission. DISCUSSION: The DAP musculoskeletal model has the potential to complement research conducted on spaceflight induced changes to the musculoskeletal system. It can help with hypothesis formation, identification of causative mechanisms and

  20. Discuss the Suggestions and Measures of Project Legal Person How to Do Project Investment Management%浅谈项目法人如何做好项目投资管理的建议和措施

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赖国建

    2014-01-01

    水利工程抓好工程建设管理,是保证工程安全的关键,项目法人投资控制是建设管理的重要内容。本文结合多年建设管理经验,通过分析提出了一些观点,以利项目法人强化投资管理,确保投资目标的顺利实现。%Pays special at ention to the water conservancy project construction management is the key to ensure the safety of engineering. Project entity investment control is an important content of construction management. Combining with the construction management experience for many years, this article through the analysis to put forward some views and use the project legal person to strengthen investment mana-gement so as to ensure the smooth realization of the invest-ment goal.

  1. Understanding Differences in Chemistry Climate Model Projections of Stratospheric Ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglass, A. R.; Strahan, S. E.; Oman, L. D.; Stolarski, R. S.

    2014-01-01

    Chemistry climate models (CCMs) are used to project future evolution of stratospheric ozone as concentrations of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) decrease and greenhouse gases increase, cooling the stratosphere. CCM projections exhibit not only many common features but also a broad range of values for quantities such as year of ozone return to 1980 and global ozone level at the end of the 21st century. Multiple linear regression is applied to each of 14 CCMs to separate ozone response to ODS concentration change from that due to climate change. We show that the sensitivity of lower stratospheric ozone to chlorine change Delta Ozone/Delta inorganic chlorine is a near-linear function of partitioning of total inorganic chlorine into its reservoirs; both inorganic chlorine and its partitioning are largely controlled by lower stratospheric transport. CCMs with best performance on transport diagnostics agree with observations for chlorine reservoirs and produce similar ozone responses to chlorine change. After 2035, differences in Delta Ozone/Delta inorganic chlorine contribute little to the spread in CCM projections as the anthropogenic contribution to inorganic chlorine becomes unimportant. Differences among upper stratospheric ozone increases due to temperature decreases are explained by differences in ozone sensitivity to temperature change Delta Ozone/Delta T due to different contributions from various ozone loss processes, each with its own temperature dependence. Ozone decrease in the tropical lower stratosphere caused by a projected speedup in the Brewer-Dobson circulation may or may not be balanced by ozone increases in the middle- and high-latitude lower stratosphere and upper troposphere. This balance, or lack thereof, contributes most to the spread in late 21st century projections.

  2. Economic Decision Model Suggests Total Shoulder Arthroplasty is Superior to Hemiarthroplasty in Young Patients with End-stage Shoulder Arthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhat, Suneel B; Lazarus, Mark; Getz, Charles; Williams, Gerald R; Namdari, Surena

    2016-11-01

    Young patients with severe glenohumeral arthritis pose a challenging management problem for shoulder surgeons. Two controversial treatment options are total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA) and hemiarthroplasty. This study aims to characterize costs, as expressed by reimbursements for episodes of acute care, and outcomes associated with each treatment. We asked: for patients 30 to 50 years old with severe end-stage glenohumeral arthritis refractory to conservative management, (1) are more years of patient-derived satisfactory outcome by the Neer criteria and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) achieved using a TSA or a hemiarthroplasty; (2) does a TSA or a hemiarthroplasty result in a greater number of revision procedures; and (3) does a TSA or a hemiarthroplasty result in greater associated costs to society? The incidence of glenohumeral arthritis among 30- to 50-year-old patients, outcomes, reoperation probabilities, and associated costs from TSA and hemiarthroplasty were derived from the literature. A Markov chain decision tree model was developed from these estimates with number of revisions, cost of management for patients to 70 years old as defined by reimbursement for acute-care episodes, years with "satisfactory" or "excellent" outcome by the modified Neer criteria, and QALYs gained as principle outcome measures. A Monte Carlo simulation was conducted with a cohort representing the at-risk population for shoulder arthritis between 30 and 50 years old in the United States. During the lifetime of a cohort of 5279 patients, hemiarthroplasty as the initial treatment resulted in 59,574 patient years of satisfactory or excellent results (11.29 per patient) and average QALYs gained of 6.55, whereas TSA as the initial treatment resulted in 85,969 patient years of satisfactory or excellent results (16.29 per patient) and average QALYs gained of 7.96. During the lifetime of a cohort of 5279 patients, a hemiarthroplasty as the initial treatment led to 2090 lifetime

  3. Low Level Evidence Suggests That Librarian-Led Instruction in Evidence Based Practice is Effective Regardless of Instructional Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lindsay J. Alcock

    2017-06-01

    studies which included descriptive statistics and many also included inferential statistics intended to show significance. Differences between groups were assessed with parametric measures in 9 studies and non-parametric measures in 15 studies. Good to high statistical significance on at least 1 measurement was achieved in 23 studies. Given the absence of effect sizes, the level of differences between study groups could not be determined. Conclusion – Numerous pedagogical methods are used in librarian-led instruction in evidence based practice. However, there is a paucity of high level evidence and the literature suggests that no instructional method is demonstrated to be more effective than another.

  4. Projection methods for the numerical solution of Markov chain models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saad, Youcef

    1989-01-01

    Projection methods for computing stationary probability distributions for Markov chain models are presented. A general projection method is a method which seeks an approximation from a subspace of small dimension to the original problem. Thus, the original matrix problem of size N is approximated by one of dimension m, typically much smaller than N. A particularly successful class of methods based on this principle is that of Krylov subspace methods which utilize subspaces of the form span(v,av,...,A(exp m-1)v). These methods are effective in solving linear systems and eigenvalue problems (Lanczos, Arnoldi,...) as well as nonlinear equations. They can be combined with more traditional iterative methods such as successive overrelaxation, symmetric successive overrelaxation, or with incomplete factorization methods to enhance convergence.

  5. Innovations in projecting emissions for air quality modeling ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Air quality modeling is used in setting air quality standards and in evaluating their costs and benefits. Historically, modeling applications have projected emissions and the resulting air quality only 5 to 10 years into the future. Recognition that the choice of air quality management strategy has climate change implications is encouraging longer modeling time horizons. However, for multi-decadal time horizons, many questions about future conditions arise. For example, will current population, economic, and land use trends continue, or will we see shifts that may alter the spatial and temporal pattern of emissions? Similarly, will technologies such as building-integrated solar photovoltaics, battery storage, electric vehicles, and CO2 capture emerge as disruptive technologies - shifting how we produce and use energy - or will these technologies achieve only niche markets and have little impact? These are some of the questions that are being evaluated by researchers within the U.S. EPA’s Office of Research and Development. In this presentation, Dr. Loughlin will describe a range of analytical approaches that are being explored. These include: (i) the development of alternative scenarios of the future that can be used to evaluate candidate management strategies over wide-ranging conditions, (ii) the application of energy system models to project emissions decades into the future and to assess the environmental implications of new technologies, (iii) and methodo

  6. The declared barriers of the large developing countries waste management projects: The STAR model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bufoni, André Luiz; Oliveira, Luciano Basto; Rosa, Luiz Pinguelli

    2016-06-01

    The aim of this study is to investigate and describe the barriers system that precludes the feasibility, or limits the performance of the waste management projects through the analysis of which are the declared barriers at the 432 large waste management projects registered as CDM during the period 2004-2014. The final product is a waste management barriers conceptual model proposal (STAR), supported by literature and corroborated by projects design documents. This paper uses the computer assisted qualitative content analysis (CAQCA) methodology with the qualitative data analysis (QDA) software NVivo®, by 890 fragments, to investigate the motives to support our conclusions. Results suggest the main barriers classification in five types: sociopolitical, technological, regulatory, financial, and human resources constraints. Results also suggest that beyond the waste management industry, projects have disadvantages added related to the same barriers inherent to others renewable energies initiatives. The STAR model sheds some light over the interactivity and dynamics related to the main constraints of the industry, describing the mutual influences and relationships among each one. Future researches are needed to better and comprehensively understand these relationships and ease the development of tools to alleviate or eliminate them.

  7. GMMIP (v1.0) contribution to CMIP6: Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project

    OpenAIRE

    Zhou, Tianjun; Turner, Andrew G.; Kinter, James L.; Qian, Yun; Chen, Xiaolong; Bo WU; Wang, Bin; Liu, Bo; Zou, Liwei; He, Bian

    2016-01-01

    The Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project (GMMIP) has been endorsed by the panel of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) as one of the participating model inter-comparison projects (MIPs) in the sixth phase of CMIP (CMIP6). The focus of GMMIP is on monsoon climatology, variability, prediction and projection, which is relevant to four of the “Grand Challenges” proposed by the World Climate Research Programme. At present, 21 international modeling groups are ...

  8. Solid waste integrated cost analysis model: 1991 project year report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-01-01

    The purpose of the City of Houston's 1991 Solid Waste Integrated Cost Analysis Model (SWICAM) project was to continue the development of a computerized cost analysis model. This model is to provide solid waste managers with tool to evaluate the dollar cost of real or hypothetical solid waste management choices. Those choices have become complicated by the implementation of Subtitle D of the Resources Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) and the EPA's Integrated Approach to managing municipal solid waste;. that is, minimize generation, maximize recycling, reduce volume (incinerate), and then bury (landfill) only the remainder. Implementation of an integrated solid waste management system involving all or some of the options of recycling, waste to energy, composting, and landfilling is extremely complicated. Factors such as hauling distances, markets, and prices for recyclable, costs and benefits of transfer stations, and material recovery facilities must all be considered. A jurisdiction must determine the cost impacts of implementing a number of various possibilities for managing, handling, processing, and disposing of waste. SWICAM employs a single Lotus 123 spreadsheet to enable a jurisdiction to predict or assess the costs of its waste management system. It allows the user to select his own process flow for waste material and to manipulate the model to include as few or as many options as he or she chooses. The model will calculate the estimated cost for those choices selected. The user can then change the model to include or exclude waste stream components, until the mix of choices suits the user. Graphs can be produced as a visual communication aid in presenting the results of the cost analysis. SWICAM also allows future cost projections to be made.

  9. Projection-Based Reduced Order Modeling for Spacecraft Thermal Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Jing; Wang, Yi; Song, Hongjun; Pant, Kapil; Peabody, Hume; Ku, Jentung; Butler, Charles D.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a mathematically rigorous, subspace projection-based reduced order modeling (ROM) methodology and an integrated framework to automatically generate reduced order models for spacecraft thermal analysis. Two key steps in the reduced order modeling procedure are described: (1) the acquisition of a full-scale spacecraft model in the ordinary differential equation (ODE) and differential algebraic equation (DAE) form to resolve its dynamic thermal behavior; and (2) the ROM to markedly reduce the dimension of the full-scale model. Specifically, proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) in conjunction with discrete empirical interpolation method (DEIM) and trajectory piece-wise linear (TPWL) methods are developed to address the strong nonlinear thermal effects due to coupled conductive and radiative heat transfer in the spacecraft environment. Case studies using NASA-relevant satellite models are undertaken to verify the capability and to assess the computational performance of the ROM technique in terms of speed-up and error relative to the full-scale model. ROM exhibits excellent agreement in spatiotemporal thermal profiles (<0.5% relative error in pertinent time scales) along with salient computational acceleration (up to two orders of magnitude speed-up) over the full-scale analysis. These findings establish the feasibility of ROM to perform rational and computationally affordable thermal analysis, develop reliable thermal control strategies for spacecraft, and greatly reduce the development cycle times and costs.

  10. User Modeling for Contextual Suggestion

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-11-01

    per day without charge. Each Yelp search query can return up to 20 results. The results are in JSON ( JavaScript Object Notation) format and contain...RAMA performance on metric P@5. 4.4.1 Comparison with Average Track Median Table 8 compares the two RAMA runs with the Track Median on all three...whereas RUN1 on MRR shows the least improvement (24%). Figure 6. RAMA performance compared with Track Median by User. 4.4.2 Comparison with Track

  11. Projected shell model study of neutron-deficient 122Ce

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Rani Devi; B D Sehgal; S K Khosa

    2006-09-01

    The observed excited states of 122Ce nucleus have been studied in the frame-work of projected shell model (PSM). The yrast band has been studied up to spin 26 ħ. The first band crossing has been predicted above a rotational frequency of 0.4 MeV/ħ that corresponds to first backbending. The calculation reproduces the experimentally observed ground state band up to spin 14ħ. The electromagnetic quantities, transition quadrupole moments and -factors are predicted and there is a need to measure these quantities experimentally.

  12. Cross–Project Defect Prediction With Respect To Code Ownership Model: An Empirical Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marian Jureczko

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents an analysis of 83 versions of industrial, open-source and academic projects. We have empirically evaluated whether those project types constitute separate classes of projects with regard to defect prediction. Statistical tests proved that there exist significant differences between the models trained on the aforementioned project classes. This work makes the next step towards cross-project reusability of defect prediction models and facilitates their adoption, which has been very limited so far.

  13. Modeling plant species distributions under future climates: how fine scale do climate projections need to be?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franklin, Janet; Davis, Frank W; Ikegami, Makihiko; Syphard, Alexandra D; Flint, Lorraine E; Flint, Alan L; Hannah, Lee

    2013-02-01

    Recent studies suggest that species distribution models (SDMs) based on fine-scale climate data may provide markedly different estimates of climate-change impacts than coarse-scale models. However, these studies disagree in their conclusions of how scale influences projected species distributions. In rugged terrain, coarse-scale climate grids may not capture topographically controlled climate variation at the scale that constitutes microhabitat or refugia for some species. Although finer scale data are therefore considered to better reflect climatic conditions experienced by species, there have been few formal analyses of how modeled distributions differ with scale. We modeled distributions for 52 plant species endemic to the California Floristic Province of different life forms and range sizes under recent and future climate across a 2000-fold range of spatial scales (0.008-16 km(2) ). We produced unique current and future climate datasets by separately downscaling 4 km climate models to three finer resolutions based on 800, 270, and 90 m digital elevation models and deriving bioclimatic predictors from them. As climate-data resolution became coarser, SDMs predicted larger habitat area with diminishing spatial congruence between fine- and coarse-scale predictions. These trends were most pronounced at the coarsest resolutions and depended on climate scenario and species' range size. On average, SDMs projected onto 4 km climate data predicted 42% more stable habitat (the amount of spatial overlap between predicted current and future climatically suitable habitat) compared with 800 m data. We found only modest agreement between areas predicted to be stable by 90 m models generalized to 4 km grids compared with areas classified as stable based on 4 km models, suggesting that some climate refugia captured at finer scales may be missed using coarser scale data. These differences in projected locations of habitat change may have more serious implications than net

  14. Alligator Rivers Analogue project. Hydrogeological modelling. Final Report - Volume 6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Townley, L.R.; Trefry, M.G.; Barr, A.D. [CSIRO Div of Water Resources, PO Wembley, WA (Australia); Braumiller, S. [Univ of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States). Dept of Hydrology and Water Resources; Kawanishi, M. [Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko-Shi, Chiba-Ken (Japan)] [and others

    1992-12-31

    This volume describes hydrogeological modelling carried out as part of the Alligator Rivers Analogue Project. Hydrogeology has played a key integrating role in the Project, largely because water movement is believed to have controlled the evolution of the Koongarra uranium Orebody and therefore affects field observations of all types at all scales. Aquifer testing described uses the concept of transmissivity in its interpretation of aquifer response to pumping. The concept of an aquifer, a layer transmitting significant quantities of water in a mainly horizontal direction, seems hard to accept in an environment as heterogeneous as that at Koongarra. But modelling of aquifers both in one dimension and two dimensionally in plan has contributed significantly to our understanding of the site. A one-dimensional model with three layers (often described as a quasi two dimensional model) was applied to flow between the Fault and Koongarra Creek. Being a transient model, this model was able to show that reverse flows can indeed occur back towards the Fault, but only if there is distributed recharge over the orebody as well as a mechanism for the Fault, or a region near the Fault, to remove water from the simulated cross-section. The model also showed clearly that the response of the three-layered system, consisting of a highly weathered zone, a fractured transmissive zone and a less conductive lower schist zone, is governed mainly by the transmissivity and storage coefficient of the middle layer. The storage coefficient of the higher layer has little effect. A two-dimensional model in plan used a description of anisotropy to show that reverse flows can also occur even without a conducting Fault. Modelling of a three-dimensional region using discrete fractures showed that it is certainly possible to simulate systems like that observed at Koongarra, but that large amounts of data are probably needed to obtain realistic descriptions of the fracture networks. Inverse modelling

  15. Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meehl, G A; Covey, C; McAvaney, B; Latif, M; Stouffer, R J

    2004-08-05

    The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is designed to allow study and intercomparison of multi-model simulations of present-day and future climate. The latter are represented by idealized forcing of compounded 1% per year CO2 increase to the time of CO2 doubling near year 70 in simulations with global coupled models that contain, typically, components representing atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land surface. Results from CMIP diagnostic subprojects were presented at the Second CMIP Workshop held at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany, in September, 2003. Significant progress in diagnosing and understanding results from global coupled models has been made since the First CMIP Workshop in Melbourne, Australia in 1998. For example, the issue of flux adjustment is slowly fading as more and more models obtain stable multi-century surface climates without them. El Nino variability, usually about half the observed amplitude in the previous generation of coupled models, is now more accurately simulated in the present generation of global coupled models, though there are still biases in simulating the patterns of maximum variability. Typical resolutions of atmospheric component models contained in coupled models is now usually around 2.5 degrees latitude-longitude, with the ocean components often having about twice the atmospheric model resolution, with even higher resolution in the equatorial tropics. Some new-generation coupled models have atmospheric model resolutions of around 1.5 degrees latitude-longitude. Modeling groups now routinely run the CMIP control and 1% CO2 simulations in addition to 20th and 21st century climate simulations with a variety of forcings (e.g. volcanoes, solar variability, anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, ozone, and greenhouse gases (GHGs), with the anthropogenic forcings for future climate as well). However, persistent systematic errors noted in previous generations of global coupled models still are present

  16. Multi-Model Combination techniques for Hydrological Forecasting: Application to Distributed Model Intercomparison Project Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ajami, N K; Duan, Q; Gao, X; Sorooshian, S

    2005-04-11

    This paper examines several multi-model combination techniques: the Simple Multi-model Average (SMA), the Multi-Model Super Ensemble (MMSE), Modified Multi-Model Super Ensemble (M3SE) and the Weighted Average Method (WAM). These model combination techniques were evaluated using the results from the Distributed Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP), an international project sponsored by the National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD). All of the multi-model combination results were obtained using uncalibrated DMIP model outputs and were compared against the best uncalibrated as well as the best calibrated individual model results. The purpose of this study is to understand how different combination techniques affect the skill levels of the multi-model predictions. This study revealed that the multi-model predictions obtained from uncalibrated single model predictions are generally better than any single member model predictions, even the best calibrated single model predictions. Furthermore, more sophisticated multi-model combination techniques that incorporated bias correction steps work better than simple multi-model average predictions or multi-model predictions without bias correction.

  17. Large-scale features of Pliocene climate: results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. Haywood

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate and environments of the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264 to 3.025 Ma have been extensively studied. Whilst numerical models have shed light on the nature of climate at the time, uncertainties in their predictions have not been systematically examined. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project quantifies uncertainties in model outputs through a coordinated multi-model and multi-model/data intercomparison. Whilst commonalities in model outputs for the Pliocene are clearly evident, we show substantial variation in the sensitivity of models to the implementation of Pliocene boundary conditions. Models appear able to reproduce many regional changes in temperature reconstructed from geological proxies. However, data/model comparison highlights that models potentially underestimate polar amplification. To assert this conclusion with greater confidence, limitations in the time-averaged proxy data currently available must be addressed. Furthermore, sensitivity tests exploring the known unknowns in modelling Pliocene climate specifically relevant to the high latitudes are essential (e.g. palaeogeography, gateways, orbital forcing and trace gasses. Estimates of longer-term sensitivity to CO2 (also known as Earth System Sensitivity; ESS, support previous work suggesting that ESS is greater than Climate Sensitivity (CS, and suggest that the ratio of ESS to CS is between 1 and 2, with a "best" estimate of 1.5.

  18. Climate change in Central America and Mexico: regional climate model validation and climate change projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karmalkar, Ambarish V.; Bradley, Raymond S.; Diaz, Henry F.

    2011-08-01

    Central America has high biodiversity, it harbors high-value ecosystems and it's important to provide regional climate change information to assist in adaptation and mitigation work in the region. Here we study climate change projections for Central America and Mexico using a regional climate model. The model evaluation shows its success in simulating spatial and temporal variability of temperature and precipitation and also in capturing regional climate features such as the bimodal annual cycle of precipitation and the Caribbean low-level jet. A variety of climate regimes within the model domain are also better identified in the regional model simulation due to improved resolution of topographic features. Although, the model suffers from large precipitation biases, it shows improvements over the coarse-resolution driving model in simulating precipitation amounts. The model shows a dry bias in the wet season and a wet bias in the dry season suggesting that it's unable to capture the full range of precipitation variability. Projected warming under the A2 scenario is higher in the wet season than that in the dry season with the Yucatan Peninsula experiencing highest warming. A large reduction in precipitation in the wet season is projected for the region, whereas parts of Central America that receive a considerable amount of moisture in the form of orographic precipitation show significant decreases in precipitation in the dry season. Projected climatic changes can have detrimental impacts on biodiversity as they are spatially similar, but far greater in magnitude, than those observed during the El Niño events in recent decades that adversely affected species in the region.

  19. Climate change in Central America and Mexico: regional climate model validation and climate change projections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karmalkar, Ambarish V. [University of Oxford, School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford (United Kingdom); Bradley, Raymond S. [University of Massachusetts, Department of Geosciences, Amherst, MA (United States); Diaz, Henry F. [NOAA/ESRL/CIRES, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2011-08-15

    Central America has high biodiversity, it harbors high-value ecosystems and it's important to provide regional climate change information to assist in adaptation and mitigation work in the region. Here we study climate change projections for Central America and Mexico using a regional climate model. The model evaluation shows its success in simulating spatial and temporal variability of temperature and precipitation and also in capturing regional climate features such as the bimodal annual cycle of precipitation and the Caribbean low-level jet. A variety of climate regimes within the model domain are also better identified in the regional model simulation due to improved resolution of topographic features. Although, the model suffers from large precipitation biases, it shows improvements over the coarse-resolution driving model in simulating precipitation amounts. The model shows a dry bias in the wet season and a wet bias in the dry season suggesting that it's unable to capture the full range of precipitation variability. Projected warming under the A2 scenario is higher in the wet season than that in the dry season with the Yucatan Peninsula experiencing highest warming. A large reduction in precipitation in the wet season is projected for the region, whereas parts of Central America that receive a considerable amount of moisture in the form of orographic precipitation show significant decreases in precipitation in the dry season. Projected climatic changes can have detrimental impacts on biodiversity as they are spatially similar, but far greater in magnitude, than those observed during the El Nino events in recent decades that adversely affected species in the region. (orig.)

  20. Multi-Model Combination Techniques for Hydrological Forecasting: Application to Distributed Model Intercomparison Project Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ajami, N; Duan, Q; Gao, X; Sorooshian, S

    2006-05-08

    This paper examines several multi-model combination techniques: the Simple Multimodel Average (SMA), the Multi-Model Super Ensemble (MMSE), Modified Multi-Model Super Ensemble (M3SE) and the Weighted Average Method (WAM). These model combination techniques were evaluated using the results from the Distributed Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP), an international project sponsored by the National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD). All of the multi-model combination results were obtained using uncalibrated DMIP model outputs and were compared against the best uncalibrated as well as the best calibrated individual model results. The purpose of this study is to understand how different combination techniques affect the skill levels of the multi-model predictions. This study revealed that the multi-model predictions obtained from uncalibrated single model predictions are generally better than any single member model predictions, even the best calibrated single model predictions. Furthermore, more sophisticated multi-model combination techniques that incorporated bias correction steps work better than simple multi-model average predictions or multi-model predictions without bias correction.

  1. Toward more realistic projections of soil carbon dynamics by Earth system models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Y.; Ahlström, Anders; Allison, Steven D.; Batjes, Niels H.; Brovkin, V.; Carvalhais, Nuno; Chappell, Adrian; Ciais, Philippe; Davidson, Eric A.; Finzi, Adien; Georgiou, Katerina; Guenet, Bertrand; Hararuk, Oleksandra; Harden, Jennifer; He, Yujie; Hopkins, Francesca; Jiang, L.; Koven, Charles; Jackson, Robert B.; Jones, Chris D.; Lara, M.; Liang, J.; McGuire, Anthony; Parton, William; Peng, Changhui; Randerson, J.; Salazar, Alejandro; Sierra, Carlos A.; Smith, Matthew J.; Tian, Hanqin; Todd-Brown, Katherine E. O; Torn, Margaret S.; van Groenigen, Kees Jan; Wang, Ying; West, Tristram O.; Wei, Yaxing; Wieder, William R.; Xia, Jianyang; Xu, Xia; Xu, Xiaofeng; Zhou, T.

    2016-01-01

    Soil carbon (C) is a critical component of Earth system models (ESMs), and its diverse representations are a major source of the large spread across models in the terrestrial C sink from the third to fifth assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Improving soil C projections is of a high priority for Earth system modeling in the future IPCC and other assessments. To achieve this goal, we suggest that (1) model structures should reflect real-world processes, (2) parameters should be calibrated to match model outputs with observations, and (3) external forcing variables should accurately prescribe the environmental conditions that soils experience. First, most soil C cycle models simulate C input from litter production and C release through decomposition. The latter process has traditionally been represented by first-order decay functions, regulated primarily by temperature, moisture, litter quality, and soil texture. While this formulation well captures macroscopic soil organic C (SOC) dynamics, better understanding is needed of their underlying mechanisms as related to microbial processes, depth-dependent environmental controls, and other processes that strongly affect soil C dynamics. Second, incomplete use of observations in model parameterization is a major cause of bias in soil C projections from ESMs. Optimal parameter calibration with both pool- and flux-based data sets through data assimilation is among the highest priorities for near-term research to reduce biases among ESMs. Third, external variables are represented inconsistently among ESMs, leading to differences in modeled soil C dynamics. We recommend the implementation of traceability analyses to identify how external variables and model parameterizations influence SOC dynamics in different ESMs. Overall, projections of the terrestrial C sink can be substantially improved when reliable data sets are available to select the most representative model structure

  2. Benefits of Building Information Modelling in the Project Lifecycle: Construction Projects in Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Li

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Building Information Modelling (BIM is a process involving the creation and management of objective data with property, unique identity and relationship. In the Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC industry, BIM is adopted a lot in the lifecycle of buildings because of the high integration of information that it enables. Four-dimensional (4D computer-aided design (CAD has been adopted for many years to improve the construction planning process. BIM is adopted throughout buildings’ lifecycles, in design, construction and operation. This paper presents five large-scale public and financial projects that adopt BIM in the design, construction and operational phases. Different uses of BIM are compared and contrasted in the context of the separate backgrounds. It is concluded that productivity is improved where BIM is used to enable easy sharing and integration of information and convenient collaboration.

  3. Modelling of Airship Flight Mechanics by the Projection Equivalent Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frantisek Jelenciak

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This article describes the projection equivalent method (PEM as a specific and relatively simple approach for the modelling of aircraft dynamics. By the PEM it is possible to obtain a mathematic al model of the aerodynamic forces and momentums acting on different kinds of aircraft during flight. For the PEM, it is a characteristic of it that -in principle - it provides an acceptable regression model of aerodynamic forces and momentums which exhibits reasonable and plausible behaviour from a dynamics viewpoint. The principle of this method is based on applying Newton's mechanics, which are then combined with a specific form of the finite element method to cover additional effects. The main advantage of the PEM is that it is not necessary to carry out measurements in a wind tunnel for the identification of the model's parameters. The plausible dynamical behaviour of the model can be achieved by specific correction parameters, which can be determined on the basis of experimental data obtained during the flight of the aircraft. In this article, we present the PEM as applied to an airship as well as a comparison of the data calculated by the PEM and experimental flight data.

  4. Dynamic habitat models: using telemetry data to project fisheries bycatch.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zydelis, Ramūnas; Lewison, Rebecca L; Shaffer, Scott A; Moore, Jeffrey E; Boustany, Andre M; Roberts, Jason J; Sims, Michelle; Dunn, Daniel C; Best, Benjamin D; Tremblay, Yann; Kappes, Michelle A; Halpin, Patrick N; Costa, Daniel P; Crowder, Larry B

    2011-11-01

    Fisheries bycatch is a recognized threat to marine megafauna. Addressing bycatch of pelagic species however is challenging owing to the dynamic nature of marine environments and vagility of these organisms. In order to assess the potential for species to overlap with fisheries, we propose applying dynamic habitat models to determine relative probabilities of species occurrence for specific oceanographic conditions. We demonstrate this approach by modelling habitats for Laysan (Phoebastria immutabilis) and black-footed albatrosses (Phoebastria nigripes) using telemetry data and relating their occurrence probabilities to observations of Hawaii-based longline fisheries in 1997-2000. We found that modelled habitat preference probabilities of black-footed albatrosses were high within some areas of the fishing range of the Hawaiian fleet and such preferences were important in explaining bycatch occurrence. Conversely, modelled habitats of Laysan albatrosses overlapped little with Hawaii-based longline fisheries and did little to explain the bycatch of this species. Estimated patterns of albatross habitat overlap with the Hawaiian fleet corresponded to bycatch observations: black-footed albatrosses were more frequently caught in this fishery despite being 10 times less abundant than Laysan albatrosses. This case study demonstrates that dynamic habitat models based on telemetry data may help to project interactions with pelagic animals relative to environmental features and that such an approach can serve as a tool to guide conservation and management decisions.

  5. 设代参建国外水利水电工程的特点与建议%Characteristics and Suggestions of Design Representatives Participating in Foreign Water Conservancy and Hydropower Projects

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王俊

    2014-01-01

    A large number of water conservancy and hydropower enterprises provide assistant construction in foreign countries or participate in construction of water conservancy and hydropower projects in foreign countries with the continuous development of China 's water conservancy and hydropower industry. Meanwhile, many construction site design representatives (design representatives)correspondingly go abroad to construct projects in foreign countries.They should combine characteristics of foreign water conservancy and hydropower projects to improve their business skills and personal qualities as design engineers,thereby meeting the requirements of foreign project construction on design representatives. Conditions and features of design representatives participating in foreign water conservancy and hydropower projects are combined for describing and proposing experience and suggestions in the paper,which is provided as reference for design engineers,especially design representatives.%随着我国水利水电行业的不断发展,大量水利水电企业走出国门援建或参与建设国外水利水电工程,同时工地现场设计代表人员(设代)也相应大量走出去参建国外工程。作为设计工程师,应结合国外水利水电工程的特点相应提高自身的业务能力和个人素养,满足国外工程建设对设代的要求。本文对设代参建国外水利水电工程的情况和特点加以阐述并提出经验与建议,供设计工程师特别是设代参考。

  6. Genetic algorithm-based multi-objective model for scheduling of linear construction projects

    OpenAIRE

    Senouci, Ahmed B.; Al-Derham, H.R.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a genetic algorithm-based multi-objective optimization model for the scheduling of linear construction projects. The model allows construction planners to generate and evaluate optimal/near-optimal construction scheduling plans that minimize both project time and cost. The computations in the present model are organized in three major modules. A scheduling module that develops practical schedules for linear construction projects. A cost module that computes the project's c...

  7. Large-Scale Features of Pliocene Climate: Results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haywood, A. M.; Hill, D.J.; Dolan, A. M.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Bragg, F.; Chan, W.-L.; Chandler, M. A.; Contoux, C.; Dowsett, H. J.; Jost, A.; Kamae, Y.; Lohmann, G.; Lunt, D. J.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Pickering, S. J.; Ramstein, G.; Rosenbloom, N. A.; Salzmann, U.; Sohl, L.; Stepanek, C.; Ueda, H.; Yan, Q.; Zhang, Z.

    2013-01-01

    Climate and environments of the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264 to 3.025 Ma) have been extensively studied.Whilst numerical models have shed light on the nature of climate at the time, uncertainties in their predictions have not been systematically examined. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project quantifies uncertainties in model outputs through a coordinated multi-model and multi-mode data intercomparison. Whilst commonalities in model outputs for the Pliocene are clearly evident, we show substantial variation in the sensitivity of models to the implementation of Pliocene boundary conditions. Models appear able to reproduce many regional changes in temperature reconstructed from geological proxies. However, data model comparison highlights that models potentially underestimate polar amplification. To assert this conclusion with greater confidence, limitations in the time-averaged proxy data currently available must be addressed. Furthermore, sensitivity tests exploring the known unknowns in modelling Pliocene climate specifically relevant to the high latitudes are essential (e.g. palaeogeography, gateways, orbital forcing and trace gasses). Estimates of longer-term sensitivity to CO2 (also known as Earth System Sensitivity; ESS), support previous work suggesting that ESS is greater than Climate Sensitivity (CS), and suggest that the ratio of ESS to CS is between 1 and 2, with a "best" estimate of 1.5.

  8. A Project-Based Model for Professional Environmental Experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meehan, Barry; Thomas, Ian

    2006-01-01

    The projects described in this article were designed to provide a real world situation akin to the work of environmental professionals. The projects were conducted with Australian students working on environmental issues in Vietnam. The projects demonstrated that multi-disciplinary teamwork fits well into environmental projects, and importantly…

  9. Model performance evaluation (validation and calibration) in model-based studies of therapeutic interventions for cardiovascular diseases : a review and suggested reporting framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haji Ali Afzali, Hossein; Gray, Jodi; Karnon, Jonathan

    2013-04-01

    Decision analytic models play an increasingly important role in the economic evaluation of health technologies. Given uncertainties around the assumptions used to develop such models, several guidelines have been published to identify and assess 'best practice' in the model development process, including general modelling approach (e.g., time horizon), model structure, input data and model performance evaluation. This paper focuses on model performance evaluation. In the absence of a sufficient level of detail around model performance evaluation, concerns regarding the accuracy of model outputs, and hence the credibility of such models, are frequently raised. Following presentation of its components, a review of the application and reporting of model performance evaluation is presented. Taking cardiovascular disease as an illustrative example, the review investigates the use of face validity, internal validity, external validity, and cross model validity. As a part of the performance evaluation process, model calibration is also discussed and its use in applied studies investigated. The review found that the application and reporting of model performance evaluation across 81 studies of treatment for cardiovascular disease was variable. Cross-model validation was reported in 55 % of the reviewed studies, though the level of detail provided varied considerably. We found that very few studies documented other types of validity, and only 6 % of the reviewed articles reported a calibration process. Considering the above findings, we propose a comprehensive model performance evaluation framework (checklist), informed by a review of best-practice guidelines. This framework provides a basis for more accurate and consistent documentation of model performance evaluation. This will improve the peer review process and the comparability of modelling studies. Recognising the fundamental role of decision analytic models in informing public funding decisions, the proposed

  10. Validation and Comparison of Carbon Sequestration Project Cost Models with Project Cost Data Obtained from the Southwest Partnership

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robert Lee; Reid Grigg; Brian McPherson

    2011-04-15

    Obtaining formal quotes and engineering conceptual designs for carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) sequestration sites and facilities is costly and time-consuming. Frequently, when looking at potential locations, managers, engineers and scientists are confronted with multiple options, but do not have the expertise or the information required to quickly obtain a general estimate of what the costs will be without employing an engineering firm. Several models for carbon compression, transport and/or injection have been published that are designed to aid in determining the cost of sequestration projects. A number of these models are used in this study, including models by J. Ogden, MIT's Carbon Capture and Sequestration Technologies Program Model, the Environmental Protection Agency and others. This report uses the information and data available from several projects either completed, in progress, or conceptualized by the Southwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) to determine the best approach to estimate a project's cost. The data presented highlights calculated versus actual costs. This data is compared to the results obtained by applying several models for each of the individual projects with actual cost. It also offers methods to systematically apply the models to future projects of a similar scale. Last, the cost risks associated with a project of this scope are discussed, along with ways that have been and could be used to mitigate these risks.

  11. Hydrogeological model of the territory of Kowsar hydraulic project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orekhov Vyacheslav Valentinovich

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical hydrogeology model of the territory of Kowsar Project was created with account for the results of the engineering surveys and hydro geological monitoring, which was conducted in the process of Kowsar Project construction. In order to create the model in the present work a universal computer system Ansys was used, which implements the finite element method and solid modeling technology, allowing to solve the filtration problem with the use of thermal analogy. The three-dimensional geometric model was built with use of the principle “hard body” modeling, which displays the main line of the territory relief, including the created water reservoir, geological structure (anticline Duk and the main lithological complexes developed within the territory. In the limestone mass As here is a zone characterized by water permeability on territory of Kowsar Project, and a layer characterized by seepage feeding, which occurs outside the considered territory. The water reservoir is a source of the change of hydro geological situation. The results of field observations witness, that the levels of underground waters within the area of the main structures reacts almost instantly on the water level change in the water reservoir; the delay period of levels change is not more than 1,5…2,0 weeks at maximum distance from the water reservoir. These particularities of the hydro geological regime allow using the steady-state scheme of the decision of forecast problems. The mass of limestone As, containing the structures of the Kowsar Project, is not homogeneous and anisotropy in its seepage characteristics. The heterogeneity is conditioned by exogenous influence on the mass up to the depth of 100…150 m. The seepage anisotropy of the mass is expressed by the difference of water permeability of the mass along and across the layers for almost one order. The structures of Kowsar Project is presented by a dam, grouting curtain on axis of the dam and

  12. Long-Term Engagement in Authentic Research with NASA (LEARN): Innovative Practices Suggested By a New Model for Teacher Research Experiences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pippin, M. R.; Joseph, J. D.; Yang, M. M.; Omar, A. H.; Crecelius, S.; Harte, T.; Lewis, P. M., Jr.; Taylor, J.; Bujosa, R.; Moulton, C.; Haggard, C. S.; Hyater-Adams, S.; Kollmeyer, R.; Weisman, A.

    2014-12-01

    NASA's LEARN Project is an innovative program that provides long-term immersion in the practice of atmospheric science for middle and high school in-service teachers. Working alongside NASA scientists and using authentic NASA Science Mission Directorate research data, teachers develop individual research topics of interest during two weeks in the summer while on-site at NASA Langley. With continued, intensive mentoring by NASA scientists, the teachers further develop their research throughout the academic year through virtual group meetings and data team meetings mirroring scientific collaborations. At the end of the first year, LEARN teachers present scientific posters. The LEARN experience has had such an impact that multiple teachers from the first two cohorts have elected to continue their research. The LEARN project evaluation has provided insights into particularly effective elements of this new approach. Findings indicate that teachers' perceptions of the scientific enterprise have changed, and that LEARN provided substantial resources to help them take real-world research to their students. This presentation will focus on key factors from LEARN's implementation that inform best practices for the incorporation of authentic scientific research into teacher professional development experiences. We suggest that these factors should be considered in the development of other such experiences, including: (1) The involvement of a single scientist as both the project leader/manager and the project scientist, to ensure that the project can meet teachers' needs. (2) An emphasis on framing and approaching scientific research questions, so that teachers can learn to evaluate the feasibility of studies based on scope, scale, and availability of data. (3) Long term, ongoing relationships where teachers and scientists work as collaborators, beyond the workshop "mold." (4) A focus on meeting the needs of individual teachers, whether their needs relate to elements of

  13. Modelling of Airship Flight Mechanics by the Projection Equivalent Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frantisek Jelenciak

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This article describes the projection equivalent method (PEM as a specific and relatively simple approach for the modelling of aircraft dynamics. By the PEM it is possible to obtain a mathematic al model of the aerodynamic forces and momentums acting on different kinds of aircraft during flight. For the PEM, it is a characteristic of it that - in principle - it provides an acceptable regression model of aerodynamic forces and momentums which exhibits reasonable and plausible behaviour from a dynamics viewpoint. The principle of this method is based on applying Newton's mechanics, which are then combined with a specific form of the finite element method to cover additional effects. The main advantage of the PEM is that it is not necessary to carry out measurements in a wind tunnel for the identification of the model’s parameters. The plausible dynamical behaviour of the model can be achieved by specific correction parameters, which can be determined on the basis of experimental data obtained during the flight of the aircraft. In this article, we present the PEM as applied to an airship as well as a comparison of the data calculated by the PEM and experimental flight data.

  14. Light weakly coupled axial forces: models, constraints, and projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahn, Yonatan; Krnjaic, Gordan; Mishra-Sharma, Siddharth; Tait, Tim M. P.

    2017-05-01

    We investigate the landscape of constraints on MeV-GeV scale, hidden U(1) forces with nonzero axial-vector couplings to Standard Model fermions. While the purely vector-coupled dark photon, which may arise from kinetic mixing, is a well-motivated scenario, several MeV-scale anomalies motivate a theory with axial couplings which can be UV-completed consistent with Standard Model gauge invariance. Moreover, existing constraints on dark photons depend on products of various combinations of axial and vector couplings, making it difficult to isolate the effects of axial couplings for particular flavors of SM fermions. We present a representative renormalizable, UV-complete model of a dark photon with adjustable axial and vector couplings, discuss its general features, and show how some UV constraints may be relaxed in a model with nonrenormalizable Yukawa couplings at the expense of fine-tuning. We survey the existing parameter space and the projected reach of planned experiments, briefly commenting on the relevance of the allowed parameter space to low-energy anomalies in π0 and 8Be∗ decay.

  15. Light Weakly Coupled Axial Forces: Models, Constraints, and Projections

    CERN Document Server

    Kahn, Yonatan; Mishra-Sharma, Siddharth; Tait, Tim M P

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the landscape of constraints on MeV-GeV scale, hidden U(1) forces with nonzero axial-vector couplings to Standard Model fermions. While the purely vector-coupled dark photon, which may arise from kinetic mixing, is a well-motivated scenario, several MeV-scale anomalies motivate a theory with axial couplings which can be UV-completed consistent with Standard Model gauge invariance. Moreover, existing constraints on dark photons depend on products of various combinations of axial and vector couplings, making it difficult to isolate the effects of axial couplings for particular flavors of SM fermions. We present a representative renormalizable, UV-complete model of a dark photon with adjustable axial and vector couplings, discuss its general features, and show how some UV constraints may be relaxed in a model with nonrenormalizable Yukawa couplings at the expense of fine-tuning. We survey the existing parameter space and the projected reach of planned experiments, briefly commenting on the relevan...

  16. Light Weakly Coupled Axial Forces: Models, Constraints, and Projections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kahn, Yonatan [Princeton U.; Krnjaic, Gordan [Fermilab; Mishra-Sharma, Siddharth [Princeton U.; Tait, Tim P. [UC, Irvine

    2016-09-28

    We investigate the landscape of constraints on MeV-GeV scale, hidden U(1) forces with nonzero axial-vector couplings to Standard Model fermions. While the purely vector-coupled dark photon, which may arise from kinetic mixing, is a well-motivated scenario, several MeV-scale anomalies motivate a theory with axial couplings which can be UV-completed consistent with Standard Model gauge invariance. Moreover, existing constraints on dark photons depend on products of various combinations of axial and vector couplings, making it difficult to isolate the effects of axial couplings for particular flavors of SM fermions. We present a representative renormalizable, UV-complete model of a dark photon with adjustable axial and vector couplings, discuss its general features, and show how some UV constraints may be relaxed in a model with nonrenormalizable Yukawa couplings at the expense of fine-tuning. We survey the existing parameter space and the projected reach of planned experiments, briefly commenting on the relevance of the allowed parameter space to low-energy anomalies in pi^0 and 8-Be* decay.

  17. Flyover Modeling of Planetary Pits - Undergraduate Student Instrument Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhasin, N.; Whittaker, W.

    2015-12-01

    On the surface of the moon and Mars there are hundreds of skylights, which are collapsed holes that are believed to lead to underground caves. This research uses Vision, Inertial, and LIDAR sensors to build a high resolution model of a skylight as a landing vehicle flies overhead. We design and fabricate a pit modeling instrument to accomplish this task, implement software, and demonstrate sensing and modeling capability on a suborbital reusable launch vehicle flying over a simulated pit. Future missions on other planets and moons will explore pits and caves, led by the technology developed by this research. Sensor software utilizes modern graph-based optimization techniques to build 3D models using camera, LIDAR, and inertial data. The modeling performance was validated with a test flyover of a planetary skylight analog structure on the Masten Xombie sRLV. The trajectory profile closely follows that of autonomous planetary powered descent, including translational and rotational dynamics as well as shock and vibration. A hexagonal structure made of shipping containers provides a terrain feature that serves as an appropriate analog for the rim and upper walls of a cylindrical planetary skylight. The skylight analog floor, walls, and rim are modeled in elevation with a 96% coverage rate at 0.25m2 resolution. The inner skylight walls have 5.9cm2 color image resolution and the rims are 6.7cm2 with measurement precision superior to 1m. The multidisciplinary student team included students of all experience levels, with backgrounds in robotics, physics, computer science, systems, mechanical and electrical engineering. The team was commited to authentic scientific experimentation, and defined specific instrument requirements and measurable experiment objectives to verify successful completion.This work was made possible by the NASA Undergraduate Student Instrument Project Educational Flight Opportunity 2013 program. Additional support was provided by the sponsorship of an

  18. Monte Carlo ice flow modeling projects a new stable configuration for Columbia Glacier, Alaska, c. 2020

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Colgan

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Due to the abundance of observational datasets collected since the onset of its retreat (c. 1983, Columbia Glacier, Alaska, provides an exciting modeling target. We perform Monte Carlo simulations of the form and flow of Columbia Glacier, using a 1-D (depth-integrated flowline model, over a wide range of parameter values and forcings. An ensemble filter is imposed following spin-up to ensure that only simulations that accurately reproduce observed pre-retreat glacier geometry are retained; all other simulations are discarded. The selected ensemble of simulations reasonably reproduces numerous highly transient post-retreat observed datasets. The selected ensemble mean projection suggests that Columbia Glacier will achieve a new dynamic equilibrium (i.e. "stable" ice geometry c. 2020, at which time iceberg calving rate will have returned to approximately pre-retreat values. Comparison of the observed 1957 and 2007 glacier geometries with the projected 2100 glacier geometry suggests that Columbia Glacier had already discharged ~82% of its projected 1957–2100 sea level rise contribution by 2007. This case study therefore highlights the difficulties associated with the future extrapolation of observed glacier mass loss rates that are dominated by iceberg calving.

  19. A Case Retrieval Projection Pursuit Model for Configuration Design of a Product Family%A Case Retrieval Projection Pursuit Model for Configuration Design of a Product Family

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Zi-rong; ZHANG Yi-fei

    2011-01-01

    The paper studies on case-based reasoning of uncertain product attributes in configuration design of a product family. Interval numbers characterize uncertain product attributes. By interpolating a number of certain values randomly to replace interval numbers and making projection pursuit analysis on source cases and target cases of expanded numbers, we can get a projection value in the optimal projection direction. Based on projection value, we can construct a case retrieval model of projection pursuit that can handle coexisting certain and uncertain product attributes. The application examples of chainsaw configuration design show that case retrieval is highly sensitive to reliable results.

  20. Literature Survey of previous research work in Models and Methodologies in Project Management

    OpenAIRE

    Ravinder Singh; Dr. Kevin Lano

    2014-01-01

    This paper provides a survey of the existing literature and research carried out in the area of project management using different models, methodologies, and frameworks. Project Management (PM) broadly means programme management, portfolio management, practice management, project management office, etc. A project management system has a set of processes, procedures, framework, methods, tools, methodologies, techniques, resources, etc. which are used to manage the full life cycle of projects. ...

  1. A model study of factors influencing projected changes in regional sea level over the twenty-first century

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pardaens, Anne K.; Lowe, J.A. [Met Office, Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon (United Kingdom); Gregory, J.M. [Met Office, Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon (United Kingdom); University of Reading, Department of Meteorology, Walker Institute for Climate System Research, Earley Gate, PO Box 243, Reading (United Kingdom)

    2011-05-15

    In addition to projected increases in global mean sea level over the 21st century, model simulations suggest there will also be changes in the regional distribution of sea level relative to the global mean. There is a considerable spread in the projected patterns of these changes by current models, as shown by the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment (AR4). This spread has not reduced from that given by the Third Assessment models. Comparison with projections by ensembles of models based on a single structure supports an earlier suggestion that models of similar formulation give more similar patterns of sea level change. Analysing an AR4 ensemble of model projections under a business-as-usual scenario shows that steric changes (associated with subsurface ocean density changes) largely dominate the sea level pattern changes. The relative importance of subsurface temperature or salinity changes in contributing to this differs from region to region and, to an extent, from model-to-model. In general, thermosteric changes give the spatial variations in the Southern Ocean, halosteric changes dominate in the Arctic and strong compensation between thermosteric and halosteric changes characterises the Atlantic. The magnitude of sea level and component changes in the Atlantic appear to be linked to the amount of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) weakening. When the MOC weakening is substantial, the Atlantic thermosteric patterns of change arise from a dominant role of ocean advective heat flux changes. (orig.)

  2. Assessing model uncertainties in climate projections of severe, mid-latitude windstorms using seamless approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trzeciak, T. M.; Knippertz, P.; Owen, J. S. R.

    2012-04-01

    Despite the enormous advances made in climate change research, robust projections of the position and the strength of the North Atlantic stormtrack are not yet possible. In particular with respect to damaging windstorms, this incertitude bears enormous risks to European societies and the (re-)insurance industry. Previous studies have addressed the problem of climate model uncertainty through statistical comparisons of simulations of the current climate with (re-)analysis data and found that there is large disagreement between different climate models, different ensemble members of the same model and observed climatologies of intense cyclones. The use of different horizontal and vertical resolutions, as well as different approaches to measure storminess further complicate comparison between the results from different studies. One weakness of such statistical evaluations lies in the difficulty to separate influences of the climate model's basic state, which will be governed by slow processes such as ocean circulations or sea-ice transport, from the influence of fast processes such as energy fluxes from the ocean or latent heating on the development of the most intense storms. The former might generate a bias in storm counts through an incorrect occurrence frequency of storm-prone initial conditions, while the latter could generate a similar bias due to the lack of crucial dynamics of extreme cyclone intensification due to over-simplistic model physics or insufficient horizontal resolution. Compensating effects between the two might conceal errors and suggest higher reliability than there really is. Therefore, separating sources of uncertainty is an important step towards a more reliable interpretation of climate projections and towards targeted improvements of future model generations. A possible way to separate influences of fast and slow processes in climate projections is through a "seamless" approach of hindcasting historical, severe storms with climate models

  3. Projected shell model study of quasiparticle structure of arsenic isotopes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verma, Preeti; Sharma, Chetan; Singh, Suram [Department of Physics and Electronics, University of Jammu, Jammu, 180006 (India); Bharti, Arun, E-mail: arunbharti_2003@yahoo.co.in [Department of Physics and Electronics, University of Jammu, Jammu, 180006 (India); Khosa, S.K. [Department of Physics and Electronics, University of Jammu, Jammu, 180006 (India); Bhat, G.H. [Department of Physics, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, 190006 (India); Sheikh, J.A. [Department of Physics, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, 190006 (India); Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996 (United States)

    2013-11-20

    Odd-mass isotopic chain of {sup 67–79}As has been studied within the context of the projected shell model. Deformed single-particle states generated by the standard Nilsson potential are used to calculate various nuclear structure properties like yrast spectra, rotational frequencies and reduced transition probabilities. The study of band structures of these As nuclei based on the band diagrams indicates the presence of multi-quasiparticle structure in the high spin realm of these nuclei. Rotational alignment phenomenon has also been studied in terms of band crossing which is understood to occur due to the rotational alignment of g{sub 9/2} neutron pair. We also have compared the results of the present calculations with the available experimental as well as the other theoretical data and an overall good agreement has been achieved between the two.

  4. Projection-type estimation for varying coefficient regression models

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, Young K; Park, Byeong U; 10.3150/10-BEJ331

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we introduce new estimators of the coefficient functions in the varying coefficient regression model. The proposed estimators are obtained by projecting the vector of the full-dimensional kernel-weighted local polynomial estimators of the coefficient functions onto a Hilbert space with a suitable norm. We provide a backfitting algorithm to compute the estimators. We show that the algorithm converges at a geometric rate under weak conditions. We derive the asymptotic distributions of the estimators and show that the estimators have the oracle properties. This is done for the general order of local polynomial fitting and for the estimation of the derivatives of the coefficient functions, as well as the coefficient functions themselves. The estimators turn out to have several theoretical and numerical advantages over the marginal integration estimators studied by Yang, Park, Xue and H\\"{a}rdle [J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 101 (2006) 1212--1227].

  5. On an Approach to the Design of a Logical Model of Innovation Project Data

    CERN Document Server

    Mylnikov, L; 10.3103/S0147688211030142

    2011-01-01

    Questions concerning the development of a logical model of innovation project data, as well as those concerning the design of information systems for decision?making support in the management of inno? vation projects, are discussed

  6. A Mathematical Model Based on Supply Chain Optimization for International Petrochemical Engineering Projects

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gao Ning; Sun Wei

    2015-01-01

    Based on the study of supply chain (SC) and SC optimization in engineering projects, a mixed integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) optimization model is developed to minimize the total SC cost for international petrochemical en-gineering projects. A steam cracking project is selected and analyzed, from which typical SC characteristics in international engineering projects in the area of petrochemical industry are summarized. The MINLP model is therefore developed and applied to projects with detailed data. The optimization results are analyzed and compared by the MINLP model, indicat-ing that they are appropriate to SC management practice in engineering projects, and are consistent with the optimal price-effective strategy in procurement. As a result, the model could provide useful guidance to SC optimization of international engineering projects in petrochemical industry, and improve SC management by selecting more reliable and qualiifed part-ner enterprises in SC for the project.

  7. THE PARAMETER OPTIMIZATION MODEL OF INVESTMENT AND CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS AND MANAGERIAL FEASIBILITY OF THEIR BEHAVIOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Ye. Uvarov

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available In the article the basic problem of substantiation of parameters of optimization model of organizationaltechnological solutions for investment-building projects in the system of project management is considered.

  8. Extended Model of Managing Risk in New Product Development Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dušan Gošnik

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research was to study new product development (NPDprojects-related risks and the literature in this field, as well as to developa specific extendedmodel of managing risks in npd projects, whichwill consider the nature of NPD projects. Data were collected with thehelp of the developed questionnaire, and project managers with severalyears of experience in the field of NPD projects were included. Thedata and hypotheses were tested with the use of statistical methods. Resultsof the study show that for NPD projects, it seems to be crucial toplan risks in the early stages of the project, especially focused on thedefinition of the technical requirements for the product and the relatedclear project objectives. Poorly defined technical requirements for theproduct present an important risk related with the design uncertaintyof the product. The more imprecise the technical requirements for theproduct before the project starts, the higher is the design uncertaintyof the product after its development. Unclear project objectives havea significant effect on the time-delay of npd projects. The more impreciselythe project objectives are defined before the project starts, thegreater is the time-delay on the NPD project.

  9. The Copenhagen Traffic Model and its Application in the Metro City Ring Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vuk, Goran; Overgård, Christian Hansen; Fox, J.

    2009-01-01

    In June 2007, the Danish Parliament passed an act to finance the construction of the Metro City Ring in Copenhagen. The assessment project is based on the passenger patronage forecasts for 2015 from the Copenhagen traffic model. In this paper we show how the model forecasts for this particular...... infrastructure project can be explained through detailed knowledge of model structure and model validation....

  10. Integrated Medical Model Project - Overview and Summary of Historical Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, J.; Boley, L.; Butler, D.; Foy, M.; Goodenow, D.; Griffin, D.; Keenan, A.; Kerstman, E.; Melton, S.; McGuire, K.; hide

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project represents one aspect of NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) to quantitatively assess medical risks to astronauts for existing operational missions as well as missions associated with future exploration and commercial space flight ventures. The IMM takes a probabilistic approach to assessing the likelihood and specific outcomes of one hundred medical conditions within the envelope of accepted space flight standards of care over a selectable range of mission capabilities. A specially developed Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) maintains evidence-based, organizational knowledge across a variety of data sources. Since becoming operational in 2011, version 3.0 of the IMM, the supporting iMED, and the expertise of the IMM project team have contributed to a wide range of decision and informational processes for the space medical and human research community. This presentation provides an overview of the IMM conceptual architecture and range of application through examples of actual space flight community questions posed to the IMM project. Methods: Figure 1 [see document] illustrates the IMM modeling system and scenario process. As illustrated, the IMM computational architecture is based on Probabilistic Risk Assessment techniques. Nineteen assumptions and limitations define the IMM application domain. Scenario definitions include crew medical attributes and mission specific details. The IMM forecasts probabilities of loss of crew life (LOCL), evacuation (EVAC), quality time lost during the mission, number of medical resources utilized and the number and type of medical events by combining scenario information with in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical information stored in the iMED. In addition, the metrics provide the integrated information necessary to estimate optimized in-flight medical kit contents under constraints of mass and volume or acceptable level of mission risk. Results and Conclusions

  11. Projecting and attributing future changes of evaporative demand over China in CMIP5 climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Wenbin; Sun, Fubao

    2017-04-01

    Atmospheric evaporative demand plays a pivotal role in global water and energy budgets and its change is very important for drought monitoring, irrigation scheduling and water resource management under a changing environment. Here, we first projected and attributed future changes of pan evaporation (E_pan), a measurable indictor for atmospheric evaporative demand, over China through a physical- based approach, namely PenPan model, forced with outputs form twelve state-of-the-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models. An equidistant quantile mapping method was also used to correct the biases in GCMs outputs to reduce uncertainty in〖 E〗_pan projection. The results indicated that the E_panwould increase during the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 relative to the baseline period 1971-2000 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, which can mainly be attributed to the projected increase in air temperature and vapour pressure deficit over China. The percentage increase of E_pan is relatively larger in eastern China than that in western China, which is due to the spatially inconsistent increases in air temperature, net radiation, wind speed and vapour pressure deficit over China. The widely reported "pan evaporation paradox" was not well reproduced for the period 1961-2000 in the climate models, before or after bias correction, suggesting discrepancy between observed and modeled trends. With that caveat, we found that the pan evaporation has been projected to increase at a rate of 117 167 mm/yr per K (72 80 mm/yr per K) over China using the multiple GCMs under the RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario with increased greenhouse gases and the associated warming of the climate system. References: Liu W, and Sun F, 2017. Projecting and attributing future changes of evaporative demand over China in CMIP5 climate models, Journal of Hydrometeorology, doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-16-0204.1

  12. Bidding model for sustainable projects using the traditional ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... a new dimension to development processes and procurement routes. ... as such responsible for the persistent cost over-run in building construction projects. ... Estimates from 50 samples of projects were tested using analysis of variance ...

  13. Large-scale features of Pliocene climate: results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. Haywood

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Climate and environments of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (3.264 to 3.025 Ma have been extensively studied. Whilst numerical models have shed light on the nature of climate at the time, uncertainties in their predictions have not been systematically examined. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project quantifies uncertainties in model outputs through a co-ordinated multi-model and multi-model/data intercomparison. Whilst commonalities in model outputs for the Pliocene are evident, we show substantial variation in the sensitivity of models to the implementation of Pliocene boundary conditions. Models appear able to reproduce many regional changes in temperature reconstructed from geological proxies. However, data/model comparison highlights the potential for models to underestimate polar amplification. To assert this conclusion with greater confidence, limitations in the time-averaged proxy data currently available must be addressed. Sensitivity tests exploring the "known unknowns" in modelling Pliocene climate specifically relevant to the high-latitudes are also essential (e.g. palaeogeography, gateways, orbital forcing and trace gasses. Estimates of longer-term sensitivity to CO2 (also known as Earth System Sensitivity; ESS, suggest that ESS is greater than Climate Sensitivity (CS, and that the ratio of ESS to CS is between 1 and 2, with a best estimate of 1.5.

  14. An Innovative Time-Cost-Quality Tradeoff Modeling of Building Construction Project Based on Resource Allocation

    OpenAIRE

    Wenfa Hu; Xinhua He

    2014-01-01

    The time, quality, and cost are three important but contradictive objectives in a building construction project. It is a tough challenge for project managers to optimize them since they are different parameters. This paper presents a time-cost-quality optimization model that enables managers to optimize multiobjectives. The model is from the project breakdown structure method where task resources in a construction project are divided into a series of activities and further into construction l...

  15. Cross-validation analysis of bias models in Bayesian multi-model projections of climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huttunen, J. M. J.; Räisänen, J.; Nissinen, A.; Lipponen, A.; Kolehmainen, V.

    2017-03-01

    Climate change projections are commonly based on multi-model ensembles of climate simulations. In this paper we consider the choice of bias models in Bayesian multimodel predictions. Buser et al. (Clim Res 44(2-3):227-241, 2010a) introduced a hybrid bias model which combines commonly used constant bias and constant relation bias assumptions. The hybrid model includes a weighting parameter which balances these bias models. In this study, we use a cross-validation approach to study which bias model or bias parameter leads to, in a specific sense, optimal climate change projections. The analysis is carried out for summer and winter season means of 2 m-temperatures spatially averaged over the IPCC SREX regions, using 19 model runs from the CMIP5 data set. The cross-validation approach is applied to calculate optimal bias parameters (in the specific sense) for projecting the temperature change from the control period (1961-2005) to the scenario period (2046-2090). The results are compared to the results of the Buser et al. (Clim Res 44(2-3):227-241, 2010a) method which includes the bias parameter as one of the unknown parameters to be estimated from the data.

  16. Software development infrastructure for the HYBRID modeling and simulation project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aaron S. Epiney; Robert A. Kinoshita; Jong Suk Kim; Cristian Rabiti; M. Scott Greenwood

    2016-09-01

    One of the goals of the HYBRID modeling and simulation project is to assess the economic viability of hybrid systems in a market that contains renewable energy sources like wind. The idea is that it is possible for the nuclear plant to sell non-electric energy cushions, which absorb (at least partially) the volatility introduced by the renewable energy sources. This system is currently modeled in the Modelica programming language. To assess the economics of the system, an optimization procedure is trying to find the minimal cost of electricity production. The RAVEN code is used as a driver for the whole problem. It is assumed that at this stage, the HYBRID modeling and simulation framework can be classified as non-safety “research and development” software. The associated quality level is Quality Level 3 software. This imposes low requirements on quality control, testing and documentation. The quality level could change as the application development continues.Despite the low quality requirement level, a workflow for the HYBRID developers has been defined that include a coding standard and some documentation and testing requirements. The repository performs automated unit testing of contributed models. The automated testing is achieved via an open-source python script called BuildingsP from Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. BuildingsPy runs Modelica simulation tests using Dymola in an automated manner and generates and runs unit tests from Modelica scripts written by developers. In order to assure effective communication between the different national laboratories a biweekly videoconference has been set-up, where developers can report their progress and issues. In addition, periodic face-face meetings are organized intended to discuss high-level strategy decisions with management. A second means of communication is the developer email list. This is a list to which everybody can send emails that will be received by the collective of the developers and managers

  17. Modeling and projection of dengue fever cases in Guangzhou based on variation of weather factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chenlu; Wang, Xiaofeng; Wu, Xiaoxu; Liu, Jianing; Ji, Duoying; Du, Juan

    2017-12-15

    Dengue fever is one of the most serious vector-borne infectious diseases, especially in Guangzhou, China. Dengue viruses and their vectors Aedes albopictus are sensitive to climate change primarily in relation to weather factors. Previous research has mainly focused on identifying the relationship between climate factors and dengue cases, or developing dengue case models with some non-climate factors. However, there has been little research addressing the modeling and projection of dengue cases only from the perspective of climate change. This study considered this topic using long time series data (1998-2014). First, sensitive weather factors were identified through meta-analysis that included literature review screening, lagged analysis, and collinear analysis. Then, key factors that included monthly average temperature at a lag of two months, and monthly average relative humidity and monthly average precipitation at lags of three months were determined. Second, time series Poisson analysis was used with the generalized additive model approach to develop a dengue model based on key weather factors for January 1998 to December 2012. Data from January 2013 to July 2014 were used to validate that the model was reliable and reasonable. Finally, future weather data (January 2020 to December 2070) were input into the model to project the occurrence of dengue cases under different climate scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Longer time series analysis and scientifically selected weather variables were used to develop a dengue model to ensure reliability. The projections suggested that seasonal disease control (especially in summer and fall) and mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions could help reduce the incidence of dengue fever. The results of this study hope to provide a scientifically theoretical basis for the prevention and control of dengue fever in Guangzhou. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. A Canonical Response in Rainfall Characteristics to Global Warming: Projections by IPCC CMIP5 Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.; Kim, K. M.

    2012-01-01

    Changes in rainfall characteristics induced by global warming are examined based on probability distribution function (PDF) analysis, from outputs of 14 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), CMIP (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models under various scenarios of increased CO2 emissions. Results show that collectively CMIP5 models project a robust and consistent global and regional rainfall response to CO2 warming. Globally, the models show a 1-3% increase in rainfall per degree rise in temperature, with a canonical response featuring large increase (100-250 %) in frequency of occurrence of very heavy rain, a reduction (5-10%) of moderate rain, and an increase (10-15%) of light rain events. Regionally, even though details vary among models, a majority of the models (>10 out of 14) project a consistent large scale response with more heavy rain events in climatologically wet regions, most pronounced in the Pacific ITCZ and the Asian monsoon. Moderate rain events are found to decrease over extensive regions of the subtropical and extratropical oceans, but increases over the extratropical land regions, and the Southern Oceans. The spatial distribution of light rain resembles that of moderate rain, but mostly with opposite polarity. The majority of the models also show increase in the number of dry events (absence or only trace amount of rain) over subtropical and tropical land regions in both hemispheres. These results suggest that rainfall characteristics are changing and that increased extreme rainfall events and droughts occurrences are connected, as a consequent of a global adjustment of the large scale circulation to global warming.

  19. The CTQ flowdown as a conceptual model of project objectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H. de Koning; J. de Mast

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to describe and clarify a tool that is at the core of the definition phase of most quality improvement projects. This tool is called the critical to quality (CTQ) flowdown. It relates high-level strategic focal points to project objectives. In their turn project object

  20. Building an Experiential Learning Model for a Project Management Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Kuan C.; Chuang, Keh-Wen

    2009-01-01

    Teaching students to become project management professionals requires a real world experience. Incorporating live clients into student projects, instead of using case studies or mock companies, adds a dimension that exposes students to the realities of project management. This paper will describe a structured methodology used in a project…

  1. Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, J.O.; Bigelow, N.H.; Prentice, I.C.; Harrison, S.P.; Bartlein, P.J.; Christensen, T.R.; Cramer, W.; Matveyeva, N.V.; McGuire, A.D.; Murray, D.F.; Razzhivin, V.Y.; Smith, B.; Walker, D. A.; Anderson, P.M.; Andreev, A.A.; Brubaker, L.B.; Edwards, M.E.; Lozhkin, A.V.

    2003-01-01

    Large variations in the composition, structure, and function of Arctic ecosystems are determined by climatic gradients, especially of growing-season warmth, soil moisture, and snow cover. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra was developed. The geographic distributions of vegetation types north of 55??N, including the position of the forest limit and the distributions of the tundra types, could be predicted from climatology using a small set of plant functional types embedded in the biogeochemistry-biogeography model BIOME4. Several palaeoclimate simulations for the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene were used to explore the possibility of simulating past vegetation patterns, which are independently known based on pollen data. The broad outlines of observed changes in vegetation were captured. LGM simulations showed the major reduction of forest, the great extension of graminoid and forb tundra, and the restriction of low- and high-shrub tundra (although not all models produced sufficiently dry conditions to mimic the full observed change). Mid-Holocene simulations reproduced the contrast between northward forest extension in western and central Siberia and stability of the forest limit in Beringia. Projection of the effect of a continued exponential increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, based on a transient ocean-atmosphere simulation including sulfate aerosol effects, suggests a potential for larger changes in Arctic ecosystems during the 21st century than have occurred between mid-Holocene and present. Simulated physiological effects of the CO2 increase (to > 700 ppm) at high latitudes were slight compared with the effects of the change in climate.

  2. Research on evaluation of enterprise project culture based on Denison model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yucheng Zeng

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to build enterprise project culture evaluation model and search for the best evaluation method for Chinese enterprise project culture on the basis of studying and drawing lessons from enterprise culture evaluation theory and method at home and abroad. Design/methodology/approach: Referring to the Denison enterprise culture evaluation model, this paper optimizes it according to the difference of enterprise project culture, designs the enterprise project culture evaluation model and proves the practicability of the model through empirical. Finding: This paper finds that it`s more applicable to use the Denison model for enterprise project culture evaluation through the comparative analysis of domestic and foreign enterprise culture evaluation theory and method, the systematic project culture management framework of Chinese enterprises has not yet formed through empirical research, and four factors in enterprise project culture have important influence on project operation performance improvement. Research limitations/implications: The research on evaluation of enterprise project culture based on Denison model is a preliminary attempt, the design of evaluation index system, evaluation model and scale structure also need to be improved, but the thinking of this paper in this field provides a valuable reference for future research. Practical Implications: This paper provides the support of theory and practice for evaluating the present situation of enterprise project culture construction and analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of project culture, which contributes to the "dialectical therapy" of enterprise project management, enterprise management and enterprise project culture construction. Originality/value: The main contribution of this paper is the introduction of Denison enterprise culture model. Combining with the actual situation of enterprises, this paper also builds the evaluation model for

  3. Multi-model ensemble projections of future extreme heat stress on rice across southern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Liang; Cleverly, James; Wang, Bin; Jin, Ning; Mi, Chunrong; Liu, De Li; Yu, Qiang

    2017-08-01

    Extreme heat events have become more frequent and intense with climate warming, and these heatwaves are a threat to rice production in southern China. Projected changes in heat stress in rice provide an assessment of the potential impact on crop production and can direct measures for adaptation to climate change. In this study, we calculated heat stress indices using statistical scaling techniques, which can efficiently downscale output from general circulation models (GCMs). Data across the rice belt in southern China were obtained from 28 GCMs in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) with two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 for current emissions and RCP8.5 for increasing emissions). Multi-model ensemble projections over the historical period (1960-2010) reproduced the trend of observations in heat stress indices (root-mean-square error RMSE = 6.5 days) better than multi-model arithmetic mean (RMSE 8.9 days) and any individual GCM (RMSE 11.4 days). The frequency of heat stress events was projected to increase by 2061-2100 in both scenarios (up to 185 and 319% for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively), especially in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. This increasing risk of exposure to heat stress above 30 °C during flowering and grain filling is predicted to impact rice production. The results of our study suggest the importance of specific adaption or mitigation strategies, such as selection of heat-tolerant cultivars and adjustment of planting date in a warmer future world.

  4. Benefit Evaluation Model of Small Watershed Control Based on Projection Pursuit

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    A projection pursuit model is presented in this paper for comprehensive evaluation of benefits of small watershed control. By using the model ,small watershed control samples with many benefit evaluation indexes can be synthesized projective values with one dimension. The samples can be naturally evaluated according to the projective values. The parameters of the model is optimized by using real coding beased accelerating genetic aglrothm,which overcomes the shortcomings of large computation amount and difficulty of computer programming in traditional projection prusuit methods,and provides a new way for wide applications of projection pursuit technique to different evaluation problems in agricultural systems engineering.

  5. A project-centered undergraduate geoscience curriculum model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelso, P.; Brown, L.

    2003-04-01

    Lake Superior State University, a comprehensive rural public university with approximately 10% Native-Americans enrolled, located in Michigan's eastern Upper Peninsula, U.S.A., has redesigned it's undergraduate geology major by developing an entire curriculum around a project-centered integration of geoscience sub-disciplines. Our model, adapted from modern educational theory, advocates sub-discipline integration by implementing problem-based learning through coursework that develops students' intellectual skills and engages them in using complex reasoning in real-world contexts. Students in this new curriculum will actively discover how to learn about a new geologic province, what questions to ask in approaching problems, where and how to find answers, and how to apply knowledge to solving problems. To accomplish our goals, we redesigned our pedagogy for all courses by creating active learning environments including cooperative learning, jigsaw methodologies, debates, investigation oriented laboratories, use of case studies, writing and communication intensive exercises, and research experiences. Fundamental sub-discipline concepts were identified by our national survey and are presented in the context of sequentially ordered problems that reflect increasing geological complexity. All courses above first year incorporate significant field experience. Our lower division courses include a two semester sequence of physical and historical geology in which physical processes are discussed in the context of their historical extension and one semester of structure/tectonics and mineralogy/petrology. The lower division culminates with a three week introductory field geology course. Our upper division courses include hydrologic systems, environmental systems, geochemical systems, tectonic systems, geophysical systems, clastic systems, carbonate systems, two seminar courses, and advanced field geology. The two field courses, offered in different geologic provinces, provide

  6. Future Arctic marine access: analysis and evaluation of observations, models, and projections of sea ice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. S. Rogers

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available There is an emerging need for regional applications of sea ice projections to provide more accuracy and greater detail to scientists, national, state and local planners, and other stakeholders. The present study offers a prototype for a comprehensive, interdisciplinary study to bridge observational data, climate model simulations, and user needs. The study's first component is an observationally based evaluation of Arctic sea ice trends during 1980–2008, with an emphasis on seasonal and regional differences relative to the overall pan-Arctic trend. Regional sea ice loss has varied, with a significantly larger decline of winter maximum (January–March extent in the Atlantic region than in other sectors. A lead–lag regression analysis of Atlantic sea ice extent and ocean temperatures indicates that reduced sea ice extent is associated with increased Atlantic Ocean temperatures. Correlations between the two variables are greater when ocean temperatures lag rather than lead sea ice. The performance of 13 global climate models is evaluated using three metrics to compare sea ice simulations with the observed record. We rank models over the pan-Arctic domain and regional quadrants and synthesize model performance across several different studies. The best performing models project reduced ice cover across key access routes in the Arctic through 2100, with a lengthening of seasons for marine operations by 1–3 months. This assessment suggests that the Northwest and Northeast Passages hold potential for enhanced marine access to the Arctic in the future, including shipping and resource development opportunities.

  7. Future Arctic marine access: analysis and evaluation of observations, models, and projections of sea ice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. S. Rogers

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available There is an emerging need for regional applications of sea ice projections to provide more accuracy and greater detail to scientists, national, state and local planners, and other stakeholders. The present study offers a prototype for a comprehensive, interdisciplinary study to bridge observational data, climate model simulations, and user needs. The study's first component is an observationally-based evaluation of Arctic sea ice trends during 1980–2008, with an emphasis on seasonal and regional differences relative to the overall pan-Arctic trend. Regional sea ice los has varied, with a significantly larger decline of winter maximum (January–March extent in the Atlantic region than in other sectors. A lead-lag regression analysis of Atlantic sea ice extent and ocean temperatures indicates that reduced sea ice extent is associated with increased Atlantic Ocean temperatures. Correlations between the two variables are greater when ocean temperatures lag rather than lead sea ice. The performance of 13 global climate models is evaluated using three metrics to compare sea ice simulations with the observed record. We rank models over the pan-Arctic domain and regional quadrants, and synthesize model performance across several different studies. The best performing models project reduced ice cover across key access routes in the Arctic through 2100, with a lengthening of seasons for marine operations by 1–3 months. This assessment suggests that the Northwest and Northeast Passages hold potential for enhanced marine access to the Arctic in the future, including shipping and resource development opportunities.

  8. SOMO (SOlution MOdeler) differences between X-Ray- and NMR-derived bead models suggest a role for side chain flexibility in protein hydrodynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rai, Nithin; Nöllmann, Marcelo; Spotorno, Bruno; Tassara, Giovanni; Byron, Olwyn; Rocco, Mattia

    2005-05-01

    Reduced numbers of frictional/scattering centers are essential for tractable hydrodynamic and small-angle scattering data modeling. We present a method for generating medium-resolution models from the atomic coordinates of proteins, basically by using two nonoverlapping spheres of differing radii per residue. The computed rigid-body hydrodynamic parameters of BPTI, RNase A, and lysozyme models were compared with a large database of critically assessed experimental values. Overall, very good results were obtained, but significant discrepancies between X-ray- and NMR-derived models were found. Interestingly, they could be accounted for by properly considering the extent to which highly mobile surface side chains differently affect translational/rotational properties. Models of larger structures, such as fibrinogen fragment D and citrate synthase, also produced consistent results. Foremost among this method's potential applications is the overall conformation and dynamics of modular/multidomain proteins and of supramolecular complexes. The possibility of merging data from high- and low-resolution structures greatly expands its scope.

  9. Integrating fire with hydrological projections: model evaluation to identify uncertainties and tradeoffs in model complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, M.; McKenzie, D.

    2013-12-01

    It is imperative for resource managers to understand how a changing climate might modify future watershed and hydrological processes, and such an understanding is incomplete if disturbances such as fire are not integrated with hydrological projections. Can a robust fire spread model be developed that approximates patterns of fire spread in response to varying topography wind patterns, and fuel loads and moistures, without requiring intensive calibration to each new study area or time frame? We assessed the performance of a stochastic model of fire spread (WMFire), integrated with the Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys), for projecting the effects of climatic change on mountain watersheds. We first use Monte Carlo inference to determine that the fire spread model is able to replicate the spatial pattern of fire spread for a contemporary wildfire in Washington State (the Tripod fire), measured by the lacunarity and fractal dimension of the fire. We then integrate a version of WMFire able to replicate the contemporary wildfire with RHESSys and simulate a New Mexico watershed over the calibration period of RHESSys (1941-1997). In comparing the fire spread model to a single contemporary wildfire we found issues in parameter identifiability for several of the nine parameters, due to model input uncertainty and insensitivity of the mathematical function to certain ranges of the parameter values. Model input uncertainty is caused by the inherent difficulty in reconstructing fuel loads and fuel moistures for a fire event after the fire has occurred, as well as by issues in translating variables relevant to hydrological processes produced by the hydrological model to those known to affect fire spread and fire severity. The first stage in the model evaluation aided the improvement of the model in both of these regards. In transporting the model to a new landscape in order to evaluate fire regimes in addition to patterns of fire spread, we find reasonable

  10. Projected shell model analysis of multi-quasiparticle high-K isomers in sup 1 sup 7 sup 4 Hf

    CERN Document Server

    Zhou Xian Rong; Sun Yang; Long Gui Lu

    2002-01-01

    Multi-quasiparticle high-K states in sup 1 sup 7 sup 4 Hf are studied in the framework of the projected shell model. The calculation reproduces well the observed ground-state band as well as most of the two- and four-quasiparticle rotational bands. Some as yet unobserved high-K isomeric states in sup 1 sup 7 sup 4 Hf are predicted. Possible reasons for the existing discrepancies between calculation and experiment are discussed. It is suggested that the projected shell model may be a useful method for studying multi-quasiparticle high-K isomers and the K-mixing phenomenon in heavy deformed nuclei

  11. High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haarsma, Reindert J.; Roberts, Malcolm J.; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Senior, Catherine A.; Bellucci, Alessio; Bao, Qing; Chang, Ping; Corti, Susanna; Fučkar, Neven S.; Guemas, Virginie; von Hardenberg, Jost; Hazeleger, Wilco; Kodama, Chihiro; Koenigk, Torben; Leung, L. Ruby; Lu, Jian; Luo, Jing-Jia; Mao, Jiafu; Mizielinski, Matthew S.; Mizuta, Ryo; Nobre, Paulo; Satoh, Masaki; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Semmler, Tido; Small, Justin; von Storch, Jin-Song

    2016-01-01

    Robust projections and predictions of climate variability and change, particularly at regional scales, rely on the driving processes being represented with fidelity in model simulations. The role of enhanced horizontal resolution in improved process representation in all components of the climate system is of growing interest, particularly as some recent simulations suggest both the possibility of significant changes in large-scale aspects of circulation as well as improvements in small-scale processes and extremes.

    However, such high-resolution global simulations at climate timescales, with resolutions of at least 50 km in the atmosphere and 0.25° in the ocean, have been performed at relatively few research centres and generally without overall coordination, primarily due to their computational cost. Assessing the robustness of the response of simulated climate to model resolution requires a large multi-model ensemble using a coordinated set of experiments. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) is the ideal framework within which to conduct such a study, due to the strong link to models being developed for the CMIP DECK experiments and other model intercomparison projects (MIPs).

    Increases in high-performance computing (HPC) resources, as well as the revised experimental design for CMIP6, now enable a detailed investigation of the impact of increased resolution up to synoptic weather scales on the simulated mean climate and its variability.

    The High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) presented in this paper applies, for the first time, a multi-model approach to the systematic investigation of the impact of horizontal resolution. A coordinated set of experiments has been designed to assess both a standard and an enhanced horizontal-resolution simulation in the atmosphere and ocean. The set of HighResMIP experiments is divided into three tiers consisting of atmosphere-only and coupled runs and

  12. High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haarsma, Reindert J.; Roberts, Malcolm J.; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Senior, Catherine A.; Bellucci, Alessio; Bao, Qing; Chang, Ping; Corti, Susanna; Fučkar, Neven S.; Guemas, Virginie; von Hardenberg, Jost; Hazeleger, Wilco; Kodama, Chihiro; Koenigk, Torben; Leung, L. Ruby; Lu, Jian; Luo, Jing-Jia; Mao, Jiafu; Mizielinski, Matthew S.; Mizuta, Ryo; Nobre, Paulo; Satoh, Masaki; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Semmler, Tido; Small, Justin; von Storch, Jin-Song

    2016-11-01

    Robust projections and predictions of climate variability and change, particularly at regional scales, rely on the driving processes being represented with fidelity in model simulations. The role of enhanced horizontal resolution in improved process representation in all components of the climate system is of growing interest, particularly as some recent simulations suggest both the possibility of significant changes in large-scale aspects of circulation as well as improvements in small-scale processes and extremes. However, such high-resolution global simulations at climate timescales, with resolutions of at least 50 km in the atmosphere and 0.25° in the ocean, have been performed at relatively few research centres and generally without overall coordination, primarily due to their computational cost. Assessing the robustness of the response of simulated climate to model resolution requires a large multi-model ensemble using a coordinated set of experiments. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) is the ideal framework within which to conduct such a study, due to the strong link to models being developed for the CMIP DECK experiments and other model intercomparison projects (MIPs). Increases in high-performance computing (HPC) resources, as well as the revised experimental design for CMIP6, now enable a detailed investigation of the impact of increased resolution up to synoptic weather scales on the simulated mean climate and its variability. The High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) presented in this paper applies, for the first time, a multi-model approach to the systematic investigation of the impact of horizontal resolution. A coordinated set of experiments has been designed to assess both a standard and an enhanced horizontal-resolution simulation in the atmosphere and ocean. The set of HighResMIP experiments is divided into three tiers consisting of atmosphere-only and coupled runs and spanning the period 1950-2050, with the

  13. Incorporating evolutionary adaptation in species distribution modelling reduces projected vulnerability to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bush, Alex; Mokany, Karel; Catullo, Renee; Hoffmann, Ary; Kellermann, Vanessa; Sgrò, Carla; McEvey, Shane; Ferrier, Simon

    2016-12-01

    Based on the sensitivity of species to ongoing climate change, and numerous challenges they face tracking suitable conditions, there is growing interest in species' capacity to adapt to climatic stress. Here, we develop and apply a new generic modelling approach (AdaptR) that incorporates adaptive capacity through physiological limits, phenotypic plasticity, evolutionary adaptation and dispersal into a species distribution modelling framework. Using AdaptR to predict change in the distribution of 17 species of Australian fruit flies (Drosophilidae), we show that accounting for adaptive capacity reduces projected range losses by up to 33% by 2105. We identify where local adaptation is likely to occur and apply sensitivity analyses to identify the critical factors of interest when parameters are uncertain. Our study suggests some species could be less vulnerable than previously thought, and indicates that spatiotemporal adaptive models could help improve management interventions that support increased species' resilience to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  14. Worldwide transportation/energy demand, 1975-2000. Revised Variflex model projections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ayres, R.U.; Ayres, L.W.

    1980-03-01

    The salient features of the transportation-energy relationships that characterize the world of 1975 are reviewed, and worldwide (34 countries) long-range transportation demand by mode to the year 2000 is reviewed. A worldwide model is used to estimate future energy demand for transportation. Projections made by the forecasting model indicate that in the year 2000, every region will be more dependent on petroleum for the transportation sector than it was in 1975. This report is intended to highlight certain trends and to suggest areas for further investigation. Forecast methodology and model output are described in detail in the appendices. The report is one of a series addressing transportation energy consumption; it supplants and replaces an earlier version published in October 1978 (ORNL/Sub-78/13536/1).

  15. Worldwide transportation/energy demand, 1975-2000. Revised Variflex model projections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ayres, R.U.; Ayres, L.W.

    1980-03-01

    The salient features of the transportation-energy relationships that characterize the world of 1975 are reviewed, and worldwide (34 countries) long-range transportation demand by mode to the year 2000 is reviewed. A worldwide model is used to estimate future energy demand for transportation. Projections made by the forecasting model indicate that in the year 2000, every region will be more dependent on petroleum for the transportation sector than it was in 1975. This report is intended to highlight certain trends and to suggest areas for further investigation. Forecast methodology and model output are described in detail in the appendices. The report is one of a series addressing transportation energy consumption; it supplants and replaces an earlier version published in October 1978 (ORNL/Sub-78/13536/1).

  16. The core projects of International Biodiversity Observation Year (IBOY): introduction and suggestions%“国际生物多样性观察年(IBOY)”核心项目 ——内容介绍及建议

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赵士洞; 任毅

    2001-01-01

    The core projects of the International Biodiversity Observation Year (IBOY) are introduced in the present paper. These projects address the following questions: 1) What biodiversity do we have and where is it? 2) How is biodiversity changing? 3) What goods and services does biodiversity provide? 4) How can we conserve biodiversity? Based on the introductions, the authors put forward some suggestions for development of biodiversity science in China.%生物多样性观察年(IBOY)的核心项目包括4个大的主题:1)全球生物多样性现状;2)生物多样性的变化方式;3)生物多样性对人类生活的价值;4)人类如何保护生物多样性。本文对这些主题内的不同课题进行了介绍,同时对我国生物多样性科学的发展提出了相应的建议。

  17. Multi-dimensional project management models for mega-construction companies and their applications

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    China is undertaking an increasing number of mega-infrastructure projects along with its rapid economic expansion.For participants in these projects,understand how to adapt the proper and efficient management strategies is critical.In this paper,we propose three distinct models for companies under various background and management requirements,based on sophisticated data analysis and model development.Moreover,we successfully committed these models with hydropower development projects and achieved a great progress in enhancing management efficiency.

  18. Potential Improvement of Building Information Modeling (BIM) Implementation in Malaysian Construction Projects

    OpenAIRE

    Latiffi, Aryani,; Mohd, Suzila; Rakiman, Umol,

    2015-01-01

    Part 4: Building Information Modeling (BIM); International audience; Application of building information modeling (BIM), such as preview design clashes and visualize project’s model increase effectiveness in managing construction projects. However, its implementation in Malaysian construction projects is slow in order to see and gain the benefits. Therefore, this paper aims to explore on potential improvement that could increase BIM implementation in construction projects. A literature review...

  19. Roles and Responsibilities of Construction Players in Projects Using Building Information Modeling (BIM)

    OpenAIRE

    Latiffi, Aryani,; Brahim, Juliana; Fathi, Mohamad,

    2015-01-01

    Part 4: Building Information Modeling (BIM); International audience; Building Information Modeling (BIM) has been implemented in construction projects to overcome problems such as project delay, cost overrun and poor quality of project. BIM enhances construction player to perform their activities in effective and efficient through the development of three dimensional (3D) model. However, BIM requires changes in current practices among construction players in terms of the processes and technol...

  20. Evaluation of the GEM-AQ model in the context of the AQMEII Phase 1 project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Struzewska

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the scope of the AQMEII Phase 1 project the GEM-AQ model was run over Europe for the year 2006. The modelling domain was defined using a global variable resolution grid with a rotated equator and uniform resolution of 0.2° × 0.2° over the European continent. Spatial distribution and temporal variability of the GEM-AQ model results were analysed for surface ozone and PM10 concentrations. Model results were compared with measurements available in the ENSEMBLE database. Statistical measures were used to evaluate performance of the GEM-AQ model. The mean bias error, the mean absolute gross error and the Pearson correlation coefficient were calculated for the maximum 8 h running average ozone concentrations and daily mean PM10 concentrations. The GEM-AQ model performance was characterised for station types, European climatic regions, and seasons. The best performance for ozone was obtained at suburban stations and the worst performance was obtained for rural stations where the model tends to underestimate. The best results for PM10 were calculated for urban stations, while over most of Europe concentrations at rural sites were too high. Discrepancies between modelled and observed concentrations were discussed in the context of emission data uncertainty as well as the impact of large scale dynamics and circulation of air masses. Presented analyses suggest that interpretation of modelling results is enhanced when regional climate characteristics are ta ken into consideration.

  1. Novel mouse models of oculopharyngeal muscular dystrophy (OPMD) reveal early onset mitochondrial defects and suggest loss of PABPN1 may contribute to pathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vest, Katherine E; Phillips, Brittany L; Banerjee, Ayan; Apponi, Luciano H; Dammer, Eric B; Xu, Weiting; Zheng, Dinghai; Yu, Julia; Tian, Bin; Pavlath, Grace K; Corbett, Anita H

    2017-09-01

    Oculopharyngeal muscular dystrophy (OPMD) is a late onset disease caused by polyalanine expansion in the poly(A) binding protein nuclear 1 (PABPN1). Several mouse models have been generated to study OPMD; however, most of these models have employed transgenic overexpression of alanine-expanded PABPN1. These models do not recapitulate the OPMD patient genotype and PABPN1 overexpression could confound molecular phenotypes. We have developed a knock-in mouse model of OPMD (Pabpn1+/A17) that contains one alanine-expanded Pabpn1 allele under the control of the native promoter and one wild-type Pabpn1 allele. This mouse is the closest available genocopy of OPMD patients. We show that Pabpn1+/A17 mice have a mild myopathic phenotype in adult and aged animals. We examined early molecular and biochemical phenotypes associated with expressing native levels of A17-PABPN1 and detected shorter poly(A) tails, modest changes in poly(A) signal (PAS) usage, and evidence of mitochondrial damage in these mice. Recent studies have suggested that a loss of PABPN1 function could contribute to muscle pathology in OPMD. To investigate a loss of function model of pathology, we generated a heterozygous Pabpn1 knock-out mouse model (Pabpn1+/Δ). Like the Pabpn1+/A17 mice, Pabpn1+/Δ mice have mild histologic defects, shorter poly(A) tails, and evidence of mitochondrial damage. However, the phenotypes detected in Pabpn1+/Δ mice only partially overlap with those detected in Pabpn1+/A17 mice. These results suggest that loss of PABPN1 function could contribute to but may not completely explain the pathology detected in Pabpn1+/A17 mice. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  2. A Bayesian Approach for Uncertainty Quantification of Extreme Precipitation Projections Including Climate Model Interdependency and Nonstationary Bias

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2014-01-01

    in climate model biases are negligible. This study develops a Bayesian framework that accounts for model dependencies and changes in model biases and compares it to estimates calculated based on a frequentist approach. The Bayesian framework is used to investigate the effects of the two assumptions......Climate change impact studies are subject to numerous uncertainties and assumptions. One of the main sources of uncertainty arises from the interpretation of climate model projections. Probabilistic procedures based on multimodel ensembles have been suggested in the literature to quantify...... this source of uncertainty. However, the interpretation of multimodel ensembles remains challenging. Several assumptions are often required in the uncertainty quantification of climate model projections. For example, most methods often assume that the climate models are independent and/or that changes...

  3. The relativistic consistent angular-momentum projected shell model study of the N=Z nucleus 52Fe

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI YanSong; LONG GuiLu

    2009-01-01

    The relativistic consistent angular-momentum projected shell model (RECAPS) is used in the study of the structure and electromagnetic transitions of the low-lying states in the N=Z nucleus 52Fe.The model calculations show a reasonably good agreement with the data.The backbending at 12+ is reproduced and the energy level structure suggests that neutron-proton interactions play important roles.

  4. The relativistic consistent angular-momentum projected shell model study of the N=Z nucleus 52Fe

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    The relativistic consistent angular-momentum projected shell model(ReCAPS) is used in the study of the structure and electromagnetic transitions of the low-lying states in the N=Z nucleus 52Fe.The model calculations show a reasonably good agreement with the data.The backbending at 12+ is reproduced and the energy level structure suggests that neutron-proton interactions play important roles.

  5. A Modified Theta Projection Model for Creep Behavior of Metals and Alloys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Manish; Singh, I. V.; Mishra, B. K.; Ahmad, S.; Venugopal Rao, A.; Kumar, Vikas

    2016-09-01

    In this work, a modified theta projection model is proposed for the constitutive modeling of creep behavior of metals and alloys. In the conventional theta projection model, strain hardening exponent is a function of time and theta, whereas in the modified theta projection model, the exponent is taken as a function of time, theta, and applied stress. The results obtained by the modified theta projection model for Al 2124 T851 alloy at constant uniaxial tensile stress are compared with the experimental results and with the predictions of the conventional theta projection method. The creep behavior of Al 7075 T651 alloy is also predicted using modified and conventional theta projection model and compared with the available experimental data. It is observed that the modified theta projection model captures the creep behavior more accurately as compared to the conventional theta projection model. The modified theta projection model can be used to predict the creep strain of pure metals and class M alloys (similar creep behavior to pure metals) for intermediate range of stress and temperature.

  6. Relating harmonic and projective descriptions of N=2 nonlinear sigma models

    CERN Document Server

    Butter, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    Recent papers have established the relationship between projective superspace and a complexified version of harmonic superspace. We extend this construction to the case of general nonlinear sigma models in both frameworks. Using an analogy with Hamiltonian mechanics, we demonstrate how the Hamiltonian structure of the harmonic model and the symplectic structure of the projective model naturally arise from a single unifying action on a complexified version of harmonic superspace. This links the harmonic and projective descriptions of hyperkahler target spaces. For two examples, we show how to derive the projective superspace solutions for the Taub-NUT and Eguchi-Hanson models from the harmonic superspace solutions.

  7. A functional-dynamic reflection on participatory processes in modeling projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidl, Roman

    2015-12-01

    The participation of nonscientists in modeling projects/studies is increasingly employed to fulfill different functions. However, it is not well investigated if and how explicitly these functions and the dynamics of a participatory process are reflected by modeling projects in particular. In this review study, I explore participatory modeling projects from a functional-dynamic process perspective. The main differences among projects relate to the functions of participation-most often, more than one per project can be identified, along with the degree of explicit reflection (i.e., awareness and anticipation) on the dynamic process perspective. Moreover, two main approaches are revealed: participatory modeling covering diverse approaches and companion modeling. It becomes apparent that the degree of reflection on the participatory process itself is not always explicit and perfectly visible in the descriptions of the modeling projects. Thus, the use of common protocols or templates is discussed to facilitate project planning, as well as the publication of project results. A generic template may help, not in providing details of a project or model development, but in explicitly reflecting on the participatory process. It can serve to systematize the particular project's approach to stakeholder collaboration, and thus quality management.

  8. Theories of Suggestion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, W

    1928-02-01

    The word "suggestion" has been used in educational, scientific and medical literature in slightly different senses. In psychological medicine the use of suggestion has developed out of the earlier use of hypnotic influence.Charcot defined hypnosis as an artificial hysteria, Bernheim as an artificially increased suggestibility. The two definitions need to be combined to give an adequate account of hypnosis. Moreover, due allowance should be made for the factors of dissociation and of rapport in hypnotic phenomena.The relationships between dissociation, suggestibility, and hypnotizability.Theories of suggestion propounded by Pierre Janet, Freud, McDougall, Pawlow and others. Ernest Jones's theory of the nature of auto-suggestion. Janet explains suggestion in terms of ideo-motor action in which the suggested idea, because of the inactivity of competing ideas, produces its maximum effect. Freud explains rapport in terms of the sex instinct "inhibited in its aim" (transference) and brings in his distinction of "ego" and "ego-ideal" (or "super-ego") to supplement the theory. Jones explains auto-suggestion in terms of narcissism. McDougall explains hypnotic suggestion in terms of the instinct of self-abasement. But different instincts may supply the driving power to produce suggestion-effects in different circumstances. Such instincts as those of self-preservation (fear) and gregariousness may play their part. Auto-suggestion as a therapeutic factor is badly named. It supplements, but does not supplant the will, and makes complete volition possible.

  9. The Practice and Suggestions of Enclosed Residential in Shanghai Lingang Limited-price Housing Project%上海市临港围合式住宅规划实践探索与对策建议

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李萌

    2014-01-01

    上海临港限价商品房项目为上海市2011年推进的围合式住宅规划试点项目,采用“总体控制先行、规划制定导则、多家设计参与”的组织模式,从规划设计到项目实施整个过程中对围合式住宅开展了深入研究和实践探索。依托该项目实践,总结围合式住宅的设计构思和具体做法,并针对后期项目实施中围合式住宅遇到的朝向、日照、物业管理、安全技术防范以及市场接受度等问题展开具体分析和方向性的对策建议,为围合式住宅的规划设计与实施提供借鉴。%The Lingang limited-price housing is the pilot project of enclosed residential planning in Shanghai in 2011. The project takes the "overal control in advance, planning making the guidelines, several design teams involved " model, and makes intensive study and practical exploration through the whole process from design to implementation. Base on the practices of the project, the article explores the design ideas and specific practices of enclosed residential, and analyzes and countermeasures towards the problems of orientations such as sunshine, property management, security technology and market acceptance of enclosed residential.

  10. Projections of Wind Changes for 21st Century in China by Three Regional Climate Models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIANG Ying; LUO Yong; ZHAO Zongci; SHI Ying; XU Yinlong; ZHU Jinhong

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the capability of three regional climate models(RCMs),i.e.,RegCM3(the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model),PRECIS(Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies)and CMM5(the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-the National Center for Atmospheric Research of USA,NCAR Mesoscale Model)to simulate the near-surface-layer winds(10 m above surface)all over China in the late 20th century.Results suggest that like global climate models(GCMs),these RCMs have the certain capability of imitating the distribution of mean wind speed and fail to simulate the greatly weakening wind trends for the past 50 years in the country.However,RCMs especially RegCM3 have the better capability than that of GCMs to simulate the distribution and change feature of mean wind speed.In view of their merits,these RCMs were used to project the variability of near-surface-layer winds over China for the 21st century.The results show that 1)summer mean wind speed for 2020-2029 will be lower compared to those in 1990-1999 in most area of China; 2)annual and winter mean wind speed for 2081-2100 will be lower than those of 1971-1990 in the whole China; and 3)the changes of summer mean wind speed for 2081-2100 are uncertain.As a result,although climate models are absolutely necessary for projecting climate change to come,there are great uncertainties in projections,especially for wind speed,and these issues need to be further explored.

  11. Literature Survey of previous research work in Models and Methodologies in Project Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ravinder Singh

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a survey of the existing literature and research carried out in the area of project management using different models, methodologies, and frameworks. Project Management (PM broadly means programme management, portfolio management, practice management, project management office, etc. A project management system has a set of processes, procedures, framework, methods, tools, methodologies, techniques, resources, etc. which are used to manage the full life cycle of projects. This also means to create risk, quality, performance, and other management plans to monitor and manage the projects efficiently and effectively.

  12. Multi-factor Analysis Model for Improving Profit Management Using Excel in Shellfish Farming Projects

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhuming; ZHAO; Changlin; LIU; Xiujuan; SHAN; Jin; YU

    2013-01-01

    By using a farm’s data in Yantai City and the theory of Cost-Volume-Profit analysis and the financial management methods,this paper construct a multi-factor analysis model for improving profit management using Excel 2007 in Shellfish farming projects and describes the procedures to construct a multi-factor analysis model.The model can quickly calculate the profit,improve the level of profit management,find out the breakeven point and enhance the decision-making efficiency of businesses etc.It is also a thought of the application to offer suggestions for government decisions and economic decisions for corporations as a simple analysis tool.While effort has been exerted to construct a four-variable model,some equally important variables may not be discussed sufficiently due to limitation of the paper’s space and the authors’knowledge.All variables can be listed in EXCEL 2007 and can be associated in a logical way to manage the profit of shellfish farming projects more efficiently and more practically.

  13. Parametric Anatomical Modeling: a method for modeling the anatomical layout of neurons and their projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyka, Martin; Klatt, Sebastian; Cheng, Sen

    2014-01-01

    Computational models of neural networks can be based on a variety of different parameters. These parameters include, for example, the 3d shape of neuron layers, the neurons' spatial projection patterns, spiking dynamics and neurotransmitter systems. While many well-developed approaches are available to model, for example, the spiking dynamics, there is a lack of approaches for modeling the anatomical layout of neurons and their projections. We present a new method, called Parametric Anatomical Modeling (PAM), to fill this gap. PAM can be used to derive network connectivities and conduction delays from anatomical data, such as the position and shape of the neuronal layers and the dendritic and axonal projection patterns. Within the PAM framework, several mapping techniques between layers can account for a large variety of connection properties between pre- and post-synaptic neuron layers. PAM is implemented as a Python tool and integrated in the 3d modeling software Blender. We demonstrate on a 3d model of the hippocampal formation how PAM can help reveal complex properties of the synaptic connectivity and conduction delays, properties that might be relevant to uncover the function of the hippocampus. Based on these analyses, two experimentally testable predictions arose: (i) the number of neurons and the spread of connections is heterogeneously distributed across the main anatomical axes, (ii) the distribution of connection lengths in CA3-CA1 differ qualitatively from those between DG-CA3 and CA3-CA3. Models created by PAM can also serve as an educational tool to visualize the 3d connectivity of brain regions. The low-dimensional, but yet biologically plausible, parameter space renders PAM suitable to analyse allometric and evolutionary factors in networks and to model the complexity of real networks with comparatively little effort.

  14. Transistor roadmap projection using predictive full-band atomistic modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salmani-Jelodar, M., E-mail: m.salmani@gmail.com; Klimeck, G. [Network for Computational Nanotechnology and School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana 47907 (United States); Kim, S. [Intel Corporation, 2501 Northwest 229th Avenue, Hillsboro, Oregon 97124 (United States); Ng, K. [Semiconductor Research Corporation (SRC), 1101 Slater Rd, Durham, North Carolina 27703 (United States)

    2014-08-25

    In this letter, a full band atomistic quantum transport tool is used to predict the performance of double gate metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistors (MOSFETs) over the next 15 years for International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS). As MOSFET channel lengths scale below 20 nm, the number of atoms in the device cross-sections becomes finite. At this scale, quantum mechanical effects play an important role in determining the device characteristics. These quantum effects can be captured with the quantum transport tool. Critical results show the ON-current degradation as a result of geometry scaling, which is in contrast to previous ITRS compact model calculations. Geometric scaling has significant effects on the ON-current by increasing source-to-drain (S/D) tunneling and altering the electronic band structure. By shortening the device gate length from 20 nm to 5.1 nm, the ratio of S/D tunneling current to the overall subthreshold OFF-current increases from 18% to 98%. Despite this ON-current degradation by scaling, the intrinsic device speed is projected to increase at a rate of at least 8% per year as a result of the reduction of the quantum capacitance.

  15. Problems and Improvement Suggestions for the Cost Estimation of Overseas Oil and Gas Construction Projects%海外油气建设项目概算编制存在的问题及改进建议

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈绍会; 曹治栓; 郑鑫杰

    2016-01-01

    近两年受国际大环境的影响,中国石油海外业务的发展速度有所放缓,因而在有限市场资源框架内提升海外项目的投资效益显得尤为迫切。目前中国石油海外油气建设项目Feed阶段的概算是在国内基本设计概算的基础上进行测算的,与项目本身及项目所在地区的实际情况结合不紧密,可能会出现定额直接费调整不到位、税费计取不全面及汇率波动对投资产生较大影响等问题,这些问题的存在使得概算金额无法客观、合理、全面地反映项目的实际投资情况。针对存在的问题,提出了以下几点建议:紧密结合项目合同进行认真调研;充分掌握项目所在地区的税收政策;投资细分、对准一揽子货币;不断提高造价人员的专业水平。%In recent years,influenced by the international environment,the pace of devel-opment of CNPC’s overseas business has slowed down. Therefore, in the framework of the limited market resources, it’s very important to improve the investment benefits of overseas projects. At present, the CNPC oil and gas construction projects’estimation of feed stage is estimated at the basis of the domestic projects’basic design.This isn’t combined with the ac-tual situation of projects and project areas. It will produce many problems:a fixed direct fee adjustment is not in place, take less comprehensive about taxes, rate fluctuations on the im-pact of investment, and so on. These problems make the project estimation not objectively/reasonably and comprehensively respond to the projects’actual investment. Therefore, sev-eral suggestions are put forward to, for example: Closely integrated with project contracts and careful investigation;Fully grasp the tax policy of project area;Investment segmentation and alignment of the basket of currencies;We should continuously improve the professional level of cost engineers.

  16. A New Teaching Model For The Subject Of Software Project Management

    CERN Document Server

    Qureshi, M Rizwan Jameel; Nadeem, Muhammad; Mehmood, Asif

    2012-01-01

    Software (SW) development is a very tough task which requires a skilled project leader for its success. If the project leader is not skilled enough then project may fail. In the real world of SW engineering 65% of the SW projects fail to meet their objectives as in [1]. The main reason is lack of training of the project mangers. This extreme ratio of failure can be reduced by teaching SW project management (SPM) to the future project managers in the practical manner, so that they may be skillful enough to handle the project in a better way. This paper intends to propose a model to be used to teach SPM to the student of SW engineering to reduce the failure rate of projects.

  17. Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo forward projection for statistical analysis in epidemic modelling of human papillomavirus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korostil, Igor A; Peters, Gareth W; Cornebise, Julien; Regan, David G

    2013-05-20

    A Bayesian statistical model and estimation methodology based on forward projection adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo is developed in order to perform the calibration of a high-dimensional nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations representing an epidemic model for human papillomavirus types 6 and 11 (HPV-6, HPV-11). The model is compartmental and involves stratification by age, gender and sexual-activity group. Developing this model and a means to calibrate it efficiently is relevant because HPV is a very multi-typed and common sexually transmitted infection with more than 100 types currently known. The two types studied in this paper, types 6 and 11, are causing about 90% of anogenital warts. We extend the development of a sexual mixing matrix on the basis of a formulation first suggested by Garnett and Anderson, frequently used to model sexually transmitted infections. In particular, we consider a stochastic mixing matrix framework that allows us to jointly estimate unknown attributes and parameters of the mixing matrix along with the parameters involved in the calibration of the HPV epidemic model. This matrix describes the sexual interactions between members of the population under study and relies on several quantities that are a priori unknown. The Bayesian model developed allows one to estimate jointly the HPV-6 and HPV-11 epidemic model parameters as well as unknown sexual mixing matrix parameters related to assortativity. Finally, we explore the ability of an extension to the class of adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms to incorporate a forward projection strategy for the ordinary differential equation state trajectories. Efficient exploration of the Bayesian posterior distribution developed for the ordinary differential equation parameters provides a challenge for any Markov chain sampling methodology, hence the interest in adaptive Markov chain methods. We conclude with simulation studies on synthetic and recent actual data.

  18. A Revised Model for Valuation and Selection of R&D Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mohammad, Ali Naef; Kristiansen, Jimmi Normann

    project portfolio. We describe an R&D selection model which integrates valuation and selection through a multi-stage approach. We develop an integrated model of R&D selection and discuss the four subsequent stages of R&D project valuation and selection. Our consolidated effort on R&D project valuation...... brings about a comprehensive understanding of the consequences for optimal project selection for portfolios, and our propositions add numerous insights on what areas should be considered for R&D portfolio optimization.......Our research proposes an R&D project selection model which has been developed through a comprehensive literature review on financial valuation and selection of R&D projects. The findings contribute directly to the understanding of optimal choices for project compositions in firms‘ innovation...

  19. Model Diagnostics for the Department of Energy's Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, B.

    2015-12-01

    In 2014, eight Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories, four academic institutions, one company, and the National Centre for Atmospheric Research combined forces in a project called Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) with the goal to speed Earth system model development for climate and energy. Over the planned 10-year span, the project will conduct simulations and modeling on DOE's most powerful high-performance computing systems at Oak Ridge, Argonne, and Lawrence Berkeley Leadership Compute Facilities. A key component of the ACME project is the development of an interactive test bed for the advanced Earth system model. Its execution infrastructure will accelerate model development and testing cycles. The ACME Workflow Group is leading the efforts to automate labor-intensive tasks, provide intelligent support for complex tasks and reduce duplication of effort through collaboration support. As part of this new workflow environment, we have created a diagnostic, metric, and intercomparison Python framework, called UVCMetrics, to aid in the testing-to-production execution of the ACME model. The framework exploits similarities among different diagnostics to compactly support diagnosis of new models. It presently focuses on atmosphere and land but is designed to support ocean and sea ice model components as well. This framework is built on top of the existing open-source software framework known as the Ultrascale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UV-CDAT). Because of its flexible framework design, scientists and modelers now can generate thousands of possible diagnostic outputs. These diagnostics can compare model runs, compare model vs. observation, or simply verify a model is physically realistic. Additional diagnostics are easily integrated into the framework, and our users have already added several. Diagnostics can be generated, viewed, and manipulated from the UV-CDAT graphical user interface, Python command line scripts and programs

  20. The Analysis of Several Models of Investment Value of Logistics Project Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ke Qiu Cheng Zhou

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The study of the logistics project evaluation model features reviews the traditional value evaluation model. On the basis of this, using the fuzzy theory, we establish several logistics project evaluation models under fuzzy environment. The analysis of the respective characteristics and the comparison of the calculated results of the three models show that these models are important methods of investment value of logistics evaluation.

  1. On Projection-Based Model Reduction of Biochemical Networks Part I: The Deterministic Case

    OpenAIRE

    Sootla, Aivar; Anderson, James

    2014-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem of model reduction for dynamical system models that describe biochemical reaction networks. Inherent in such models are properties such as stability, positivity and network structure. Ideally these properties should be preserved by model reduction procedures, although traditional projection based approaches struggle to do this. We propose a projection based model reduction algorithm which uses generalised block diagonal Gramians to preserve structure and posit...

  2. Suggested safeguards an

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    MJM Venter

    ... COORDINATION. (FACILITATION OR CASE MANAGEMENT) IN SOUTH AFRICA ... SUGGESTED SAFEGUARDS AND LIMITATIONS FOR EFFECTIVE AND .... professional practice.27 They have to assess the situation; educate the parents.

  3. Metal Mixture Modeling Evaluation project: 2. Comparison of four modeling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farley, Kevin J.; Meyer, Joe; Balistrieri, Laurie S.; DeSchamphelaere, Karl; Iwasaki, Yuichi; Janssen, Colin; Kamo, Masashi; Lofts, Steve; Mebane, Christopher A.; Naito, Wataru; Ryan, Adam C.; Santore, Robert C.; Tipping, Edward

    2015-01-01

    As part of the Metal Mixture Modeling Evaluation (MMME) project, models were developed by the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (Japan), the U.S. Geological Survey (USA), HDR⎪HydroQual, Inc. (USA), and the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (UK) to address the effects of metal mixtures on biological responses of aquatic organisms. A comparison of the 4 models, as they were presented at the MMME Workshop in Brussels, Belgium (May 2012), is provided herein. Overall, the models were found to be similar in structure (free ion activities computed by WHAM; specific or non-specific binding of metals/cations in or on the organism; specification of metal potency factors and/or toxicity response functions to relate metal accumulation to biological response). Major differences in modeling approaches are attributed to various modeling assumptions (e.g., single versus multiple types of binding site on the organism) and specific calibration strategies that affected the selection of model parameters. The models provided a reasonable description of additive (or nearly additive) toxicity for a number of individual toxicity test results. Less-than-additive toxicity was more difficult to describe with the available models. Because of limitations in the available datasets and the strong inter-relationships among the model parameters (log KM values, potency factors, toxicity response parameters), further evaluation of specific model assumptions and calibration strategies is needed.

  4. Theoretical modeling suggests that synergy may result from combined use of two biocontrol agents for controlling foliar pathogens under spatial heterogeneous conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, X-M; Jeger, M J

    2013-08-01

    There has been a trend for combined use of several biocontrol agents (BCAs) with an expectation of synergistic interactions among BCAs. However, previous modeling studies suggested that, under homogeneous and temporal-fluctuating conditions, combined use of two BCAs, in most cases, only results in efficacies similar to the more efficacious one used alone; a result consistent with published experimental data. The present modeling study investigated whether combined use of two mycoparasitic BCAs, two competitive BCAs, or a mycoparasitic and a competitive BCA leads to synergistic interactions under spatially heterogeneous conditions. In the model, there were two patches with varying relative sizes and two BCAs differentially adapted to the two patches. Within the range of model parameter values considered, combined use of two BCAs is more effective than the more efficacious BCA used alone in 72% of the simulated cases. There was also a considerable proportion (≈21%) of model simulations in which combined use of two BCAs led to synergy (i.e., efficacy was greater than expected under the assumption of Bliss independence, especially when each of the two BCAs can only survive in one [different] patch). Combined use of a mycoparasitic BCA with a competitive one is more likely to result in synergy than the other two BCA combinations. When biocontrol activities of individual BCAs are low or moderate, biocontrol efficacy arising from combined use of two BCAs does not depend greatly on biocontrol mechanisms. However, for high BCA activities, combined use with at least one competitive BCA resulted in better control than combined use of two mycoparasitic BCAs. The present modeling study emphasized the need for understanding the degree of spatial patchiness and quantitative relationships between biocontrol activities and external conditions in order to apply commercial BCAs effectively.

  5. Risks of ocean acidification in the California Current food web and fisheries: ecosystem model projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Kristin N; Kaplan, Isaac C; Hodgson, Emma E; Hermann, Albert; Busch, D Shallin; McElhany, Paul; Essington, Timothy E; Harvey, Chris J; Fulton, Elizabeth A

    2017-04-01

    The benefits and ecosystem services that humans derive from the oceans are threatened by numerous global change stressors, one of which is ocean acidification. Here, we describe the effects of ocean acidification on an upwelling system that already experiences inherently low pH conditions, the California Current. We used an end-to-end ecosystem model (Atlantis), forced by downscaled global climate models and informed by a meta-analysis of the pH sensitivities of local taxa, to investigate the direct and indirect effects of future pH on biomass and fisheries revenues. Our model projects a 0.2-unit drop in pH during the summer upwelling season from 2013 to 2063, which results in wide-ranging magnitudes of effects across guilds and functional groups. The most dramatic direct effects of future pH may be expected on epibenthic invertebrates (crabs, shrimps, benthic grazers, benthic detritivores, bivalves), and strong indirect effects expected on some demersal fish, sharks, and epibenthic invertebrates (Dungeness crab) because they consume species known to be sensitive to changing pH. The model's pelagic community, including marine mammals and seabirds, was much less influenced by future pH. Some functional groups were less affected to changing pH in the model than might be expected from experimental studies in the empirical literature due to high population productivity (e.g., copepods, pteropods). Model results suggest strong effects of reduced pH on nearshore state-managed invertebrate fisheries, but modest effects on the groundfish fishery because individual groundfish species exhibited diverse responses to changing pH. Our results provide a set of projections that generally support and build upon previous findings and set the stage for hypotheses to guide future modeling and experimental analysis on the effects of OA on marine ecosystems and fisheries. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Manufacturer's Suggested Retail Prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosenkranz, S.

    2003-01-01

    Based on arguments of the `reference- dependent' theory of consumer choice we assume that a retailer's discount of a manufacturer's suggested retail price changes consumers' demand. We can show that the producer benefits from suggesting a retail price. If consumers are additionally sufficiently `los

  7. Structural models of zebrafish (Danio rerio NOD1 and NOD2 NACHT domains suggest differential ATP binding orientations: insights from computational modeling, docking and molecular dynamics simulations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jitendra Maharana

    Full Text Available Nucleotide-binding oligomerization domain-containing protein 1 (NOD1 and NOD2 are cytosolic pattern recognition receptors playing pivotal roles in innate immune signaling. NOD1 and NOD2 recognize bacterial peptidoglycan derivatives iE-DAP and MDP, respectively and undergoes conformational alternation and ATP-dependent self-oligomerization of NACHT domain followed by downstream signaling. Lack of structural adequacy of NACHT domain confines our understanding about the NOD-mediated signaling mechanism. Here, we predicted the structure of NACHT domain of both NOD1 and NOD2 from model organism zebrafish (Danio rerio using computational methods. Our study highlighted the differential ATP binding modes in NOD1 and NOD2. In NOD1, γ-phosphate of ATP faced toward the central nucleotide binding cavity like NLRC4, whereas in NOD2 the cavity was occupied by adenine moiety. The conserved 'Lysine' at Walker A formed hydrogen bonds (H-bonds and Aspartic acid (Walker B formed electrostatic interaction with ATP. At Sensor 1, Arg328 of NOD1 exhibited an H-bond with ATP, whereas corresponding Arg404 of NOD2 did not. 'Proline' of GxP motif (Pro386 of NOD1 and Pro464 of NOD2 interacted with adenine moiety and His511 at Sensor 2 of NOD1 interacted with γ-phosphate group of ATP. In contrast, His579 of NOD2 interacted with the adenine moiety having a relatively inverted orientation. Our findings are well supplemented with the molecular interaction of ATP with NLRC4, and consistent with mutagenesis data reported for human, which indicates evolutionary shared NOD signaling mechanism. Together, this study provides novel insights into ATP binding mechanism, and highlights the differential ATP binding modes in zebrafish NOD1 and NOD2.

  8. Integrating Economic Models with Biophysical Models in the Willamette Water 2100 Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaeger, W. K.; Plantinga, A.

    2013-12-01

    This paper highlights the human system modeling components for Willamette Water 2100, a comprehensive, highly integrated study of hydrological, ecological, and human factors affecting water scarcity in the Willamette River Basin (WRB). The project is developing a spatiotemporal simulation model to predict future trajectories of water scarcity, and to evaluate mitigation policies. Economic models of land use and water use are the main human system models in WW2100. Water scarcity depends on both supply and demand for water, and varies greatly across time and space (Jaeger et al., 2013). Thus, the locations of human water use can have enormous influence on where and when water is used, and hence where water scarcity may arise. Modeling the locations of human uses of water (e.g., urban versus agricultural) as well as human values and choices, are the principal quantitative ways that social science can contribute to research of this kind. Our models are empirically-based models of human resource allocation. Each model reflects private behavior (choices by households, farms, firms), institutions (property rights, laws, markets, regulations), public infrastructure (dams, canals, highways), and also 'external drivers' that influence the local economy (migration, population growth, national markets and policies). This paper describes the main model components, emphasizing similarities between human and biophysical components of the overall project, and the model's linkages and feedbacks relevant to our predictions of changes in water scarcity between now and 2100. Results presented include new insights from individual model components as well as available results from the integrated system model. Issues include water scarcity and water quality (temperature) for out-of-stream and instream uses, the impact of urban expansion on water use and potential flood damage. Changes in timing and variability of spring discharge with climate change, as well as changes in human uses of

  9. Compilation Of An Econometric Human Resource Efficiency Model For Project Management Best Practices

    OpenAIRE

    Van Zyl, G.; P Venier

    2006-01-01

    The aim of the paper is to introduce a human resource efficiency model in order to rank the most important human resource driving forces for project management best practices. The results of the model will demonstrate how the human resource component of project management acts as the primary function to enhance organizational performance, codified through improved logical end-state programmes, work ethics and process contributions. Given the hypothesis that project management best practices i...

  10. Projected changes in atmospheric rivers affecting Europe in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Alexandre M.; Tomé, Ricardo; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2016-09-01

    Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are elongated bands of high water vapor concentration extending to the midlatitudes, which can be associated with intense precipitation and floods over continental areas. We analyze ARs reaching Europe in simulations from six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) to quantify possible changes during the current century, with emphasis in five western European prone coastal areas. ARs are represented reasonably well in GCMs for recent climate conditions (1980-2005). Increased vertically integrated horizontal water transport is found for 2074-2099 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) compared to 1980-2005, while the number of ARs is projected to double on average for the same period. These changes are robust between models and are associated with higher air temperatures and thus enhanced atmospheric moisture content, together with higher precipitation associated with extratropical cyclones. This suggests an increased risk of intense precipitation and floods along the Atlantic European Coasts from the Iberian Peninsula to Scandinavia.

  11. Model of Cost-benefit Flow in Six Green Projects in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhu Yongjie; Zhou Boling

    2003-01-01

    From the point of cost-benefit flow and with the Six Green Projects in China as the case and background, it is criticized that the current natural resource and environmental management and the policies in China have some problems unsolved since the model of cost-benefit flow is still centralized and mainly in an administrative way in spite of many efforts made theoretically and practically. It is suggested that a new model based on market-oriented economy from the point of cost-benefit flow with Six Green Projects Management and Policies System consist of complete natural reserve (NR). Management system included environmental nature reserves in addition to biodiversity nature reserve, paid using nature resources, an environmental conservation and construction industry and renewable resource production incentive system that turn the direct administration and operation to management and services. The detail figure of the new model of cost-benefit flow is provided and the main points related are discussed in this paper.

  12. Technological Innovation Projects: Proposal For an Integrative Model Between Project Management and Knowledge Management in a Customer-Supplier Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edval da Silva Tavares

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In face of strong competition, companies in Brazil have increased their financial investments in automation, offering new products and services and reducing operating costs. These companies are focusing their efforts on core competencies and, therefore, they often lack the internal expertise to implement new projects, especially those that bring technological innovation. For this reason, we use the processes of outsourcing or subcontracting to help implement such projects. The unit of analysis in this study is the project and the object of the study to analyze the process of knowledge transfer from a provider to a customer during the duration of the project, which involves new technologies. The main motivation of this work is to address the acquisition and retention of new knowledge related to projects designed for business customers. We have developed a study of three cases of multiple financial firms that buy new technologies and two suppliers of information technology. As a practical result, a management model of knowledge transfer and retention of knowledge in client companies is proposed and incorporated into project management.

  13. Collaborative Project. A Flexible Atmospheric Modeling Framework for the Community Earth System Model (CESM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gettelman, Andrew [University Corporation For Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)

    2015-10-01

    In this project we have been upgrading the Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), also known as Super-Parameterized CAM (SP-CAM). This has included a major effort to update the coding standards and interface with CAM so that it can be placed on the main development trunk. It has also included development of a new software structure for CAM to be able to handle sub-grid column information. These efforts have formed the major thrust of the work.

  14. High-Quality 3d Models and Their Use in a Cultural Heritage Conservation Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucci, G.; Bonora, V.; Conti, A.; Fiorini, L.

    2017-08-01

    Cultural heritage digitization and 3D modelling processes are mainly based on laser scanning and digital photogrammetry techniques to produce complete, detailed and photorealistic three-dimensional surveys: geometric as well as chromatic aspects, in turn testimony of materials, work techniques, state of preservation, etc., are documented using digitization processes. The paper explores the topic of 3D documentation for conservation purposes; it analyses how geomatics contributes in different steps of a restoration process and it presents an overview of different uses of 3D models for the conservation and enhancement of the cultural heritage. The paper reports on the project to digitize the earthenware frieze of the Ospedale del Ceppo in Pistoia (Italy) for 3D documentation, restoration work support, and digital and physical reconstruction and integration purposes. The intent to design an exhibition area suggests new ways to take advantage of 3D data originally acquired for documentation and scientific purposes.

  15. Semi-structured data extraction and modelling: the WIA Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Mosca

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Over the last decades, the amount of data of all kinds available electronically has increased dramatically. Data are accessible through a range of interfaces including Web browsers, database query languages, application-specific interfaces, built on top of a number of different data exchange formats. All these data span from un-structured to highly structured data. Very often, some of them have structure even if the structure is implicit, and not as rigid or regular as that found in standard database systems. Spreadsheet documents are prototypical in this respect. Spreadsheets are the lightweight technology able to supply companies with easy to build business management and business intelligence applications, and business people largely adopt spreadsheets as smart vehicles for data files generation and sharing. Actually, the more spreadsheets grow in complexity (e.g., their use in product development plans and quoting, the more their arrangement, maintenance, and analysis appear as a knowledge-driven activity. The algorithmic approach to the problem of automatic data structure extraction from spreadsheet documents (i.e., grid-structured and free topological-related data emerges from the WIA project: Worksheets Intelligent Analyser. The WIA-algorithm shows how to provide a description of spreadsheet contents in terms of higher level of abstractions or conceptualisations. In particular, the WIA-algorithm target is about the extraction of i the calculus work-flow implemented in the spreadsheets formulas and ii the logical role played by the data which take part into the calculus. The aim of the resulting conceptualisations is to provide spreadsheets with abstract representations useful for further model refinements and optimizations through evolutionary algorithms computations.

  16. Chemistry and Climate in Asia - An Earth System Modeling Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barth, M. C.; Emmons, L. K.; Massie, S. T.; Pfister, G.; Romero Lankao, P.; Lamarque, J.; Carmichael, G. R.

    2011-12-01

    Asia is one of the most highly populated and economically dynamic regions in the world, with much of the population located in growing mega-cities. It is a region with significant emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and other pollutants, which pose high health risks to urban populations. Emissions of these aerosols and gases increased drastically over the last decade due to economic growth and urbanization and are expected to rise further in the near future. As such, the continent plays a role in influencing climate change via its effluent of aerosols and gaseous pollutants. Asia is also susceptible to adverse climate change through interactions between aerosols and clouds, which potentially can have serious implications for freshwater resources. We are developing an integrated inter-disciplinary program to focus on Asia, its climate, air quality, and impact on humans that will include connections with hydrology, ecosystems, extreme weather events, and human health. The primary goal of this project is to create a team to identify key scientific questions and establish networks of specialists to create a plan for future studies to address these questions. A second goal is to establish research facilities and a framework for investigating chemistry and climate over Asia. These facilities include producing high resolution Earth System Model simulations that have been evaluated with meteorological and chemical measurements, producing high-resolution emission inventories, analyzing satellite data, and analyzing the vulnerability of humans to air quality and extreme natural events. In this presentation we will describe in more detail these activities and discuss a future workshop on the impact of chemistry in climate on air quality and human health.

  17. Twenty-first century probabilistic projections of precipitation over Ontario, Canada through a regional climate model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiuquan; Huang, Guohe; Liu, Jinliang

    2016-06-01

    In this study, probabilistic projections of precipitation for the Province of Ontario are developed through a regional climate model ensemble to help investigate how global warming would affect its local climate. The PRECIS regional climate modeling system is employed to perform ensemble simulations, driven by a set of boundary conditions from a HadCM3-based perturbed-physics ensemble. The PRECIS ensemble simulations are fed into a Bayesian hierarchical model to quantify uncertain factors affecting the resulting projections of precipitation and thus generate probabilistic precipitation changes at grid point scales. Following that, reliable precipitation projections throughout the twenty-first century are developed for the entire province by applying the probabilistic changes to the observed precipitation. The results show that the vast majority of cities in Ontario are likely to suffer positive changes in annual precipitation in 2030, 2050, and 2080 s in comparison to the baseline observations. This may suggest that the whole province is likely to gain more precipitation throughout the twenty-first century in response to global warming. The analyses on the projections of seasonal precipitation further demonstrate that the entire province is likely to receive more precipitation in winter, spring, and autumn throughout this century while summer precipitation is only likely to increase slightly in 2030 s and would decrease gradually afterwards. However, because the magnitude of projected decrease in summer precipitation is relatively small in comparison with the anticipated increases in other three seasons, the annual precipitation over Ontario is likely to suffer a progressive increase throughout the twenty-first century (by 7.0 % in 2030 s, 9.5 % in 2050 s, and 12.6 % in 2080 s). Besides, the degree of uncertainty for precipitation projections is analyzed. The results suggest that future changes in spring precipitation show higher degree of uncertainty than other

  18. Componentized Models as a Service (CMaaS) Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Phase I project, which will conclude with a Technical Readiness Level of 3-4, will demonstrate the feasibility of the...

  19. 2014 Report: Wetland State-and-transition Model Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Report from the 2014 field season of the Wetland State-and-Transition Project. Many National Wildlife Refuges in the Intermountain West and Prairie Pothole regions...

  20. Integrated Modeling, Analysis, and Verification for Space Missions Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This project will further MBSE technology in fundamental ways by strengthening the link between SysML tools and framework engineering execution environments. Phoenix...

  1. Executable SysML Model Development Accelerator for the Constellation Program Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The proposed project is aimed at investigating ways to accelerate the creation of SysML based models that can be used for model checking and more generally for...

  2. Gulf of Mexico dissolved oxygen model (GoMDOM) research and quality assurance project plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    An integrated high resolution mathematical modeling framework is being developed that will link hydrodynamic, atmospheric, and water quality models for the northern Gulf of Mexico. This Research and Quality Assurance Project Plan primarily focuses on the deterministic Gulf of Me...

  3. High mortality of blue, humpback and fin whales from modeling of vessel collisions on the U.S. West Coast suggests population impacts and insufficient protection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rockwood, R Cotton; Calambokidis, John; Jahncke, Jaime

    2017-01-01

    Mortality from collisions with vessels is one of the main human causes of death for large whales. Ship strikes are rarely witnessed and the distribution of strike risk and estimates of mortality remain uncertain at best. We estimated ship strike mortality for blue humpback and fin whales in U.S. West Coast waters using a novel application of a naval encounter model. Mortality estimates from the model were far higher than current minimum estimates derived from stranding records and are closer to extrapolations adjusted for detection probabilities of dead whales. Our most conservative model estimated mortality to be 7.8x, 2.0x and 2.7x the U.S. recommended limit for blue, humpback and fin whales, respectively, suggesting that death from vessel collisions may be a significant impediment to population growth and recovery. Comparing across the study area, the majority of strike mortality occurs in waters off California, from Bodega Bay south and tends to be concentrated in a band approximately 24 Nm (44.5 km) offshore and in designated shipping lanes leading to and from major ports. While some mortality risk exists across nearly all West Coast waters, 74%, 82% and 65% of blue, humpback and fin whale mortality, respectively, occurs in just 10% of the study area, suggesting conservation efforts can be very effective if focused in these waters. Risk is highest in the shipping lanes off San Francisco and Long Beach, but only a fraction of total estimated mortality occurs in these proportionally small areas, making any conservation efforts exclusively within these areas insufficient to address overall strike mortality. We recommend combining shipping lane modifications and re-locations, ship speed reductions and creation of 'Areas to be Avoided' by vessels in ecologically important locations to address this significant source of whale mortality.

  4. Angular momentum projection for a Nilsson mean-field plus pairing model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yin; Pan, Feng; Launey, Kristina D.; Luo, Yan-An; Draayer, J. P.

    2016-06-01

    The angular momentum projection for the axially deformed Nilsson mean-field plus a modified standard pairing (MSP) or the nearest-level pairing (NLP) model is proposed. Both the exact projection, in which all intrinsic states are taken into consideration, and the approximate projection, in which only intrinsic states with K = 0 are taken in the projection, are considered. The analysis shows that the approximate projection with only K = 0 intrinsic states seems reasonable, of which the configuration subspace considered is greatly reduced. As simple examples for the model application, low-lying spectra and electromagnetic properties of 18O and 18Ne are described by using both the exact and approximate angular momentum projection of the MSP or the NLP, while those of 20Ne and 24Mg are described by using the approximate angular momentum projection of the MSP or NLP.

  5. Consultation and illness behaviour in response to symptoms: a comparison of models from different disciplinary frameworks and suggestions for future research directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyke, Sally; Adamson, Joy; Dixon, Diane; Hunt, Kate

    2013-06-01

    We all get ill and social scientific interest in how we respond - the study of illness behaviour - continues unabated. Existing models are useful, but have been developed and applied within disciplinary silos, resulting in wasted intellectual and empirical effort and an absence of accumulation of knowledge across disciplines. We present a critical review and detailed comparison of three process models of response to symptoms: the Illness Action Model, the Common Sense Model of the Self-Regulation of Health and Illness and the Network Episode Model. We suggest an integrated framework in which symptoms, responses and actions are simultaneously interpreted and evaluated in the light of accumulated knowledge and through interactions. Evaluation may be subconscious and is influenced by the extent to which the symptoms impose themselves, expectations of outcomes, the resources available and understanding of symptoms' salience and possible outcomes. Actions taken are part of a process of problem solving through which both individuals and their immediate social network seek to (re)achieve 'normality'. Response is also influenced by social structure (directly and indirectly), cultural expectations of health, the meaning of symptoms, and access to and understandings of the legitimate use of services. Changes in knowledge, in embodied state and in emotions can all be directly influential at any point. We do not underestimate the difficulty of operationalising an integrated framework at different levels of analysis. Attempts to do so will require us to move easily between disciplinary understandings to conduct prospective, longitudinal, research that uses novel methodologies to investigate response to symptoms in the context of affective as well as cognitive responses and interactions within social networks. While challenging such an approach would facilitate accumulation of knowledge across disciplines and enable movement beyond description to change in individual and

  6. Defining and implementing a model for pharmacy resident research projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dick TB

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To describe a standard approach to provide a support structure for pharmacy resident research that emphasizes self-identification of a residency research project. Methods: A subcommittee of the residency advisory committee was formed at our institution. The committee was initially comprised of 2 clinical pharmacy specialists, 1 drug information pharmacist, and 2 pharmacy administrators. The committee developed research guidelines that are distributed to residents prior to the residency start that detail the research process, important deadlines, and available resources. Instructions for institutional review board (IRB training and deadlines for various assignments and presentations throughout the residency year are clearly defined. Residents conceive their own research project and emphasis is placed on completing assignments early in the residency year. Results: In the 4 years this research process has been in place, 15 of 16 (94% residents successfully identified their own research question. All 15 residents submitted a complete research protocol to the IRB by the August deadline. Four residents have presented the results of their research at multi-disciplinary national professional meetings and 1 has published a manuscript. Feedback from outgoing residents has been positive overall and their perceptions of their research projects and the process are positive. Conclusion: Pharmacy residents selecting their own research projects for their residency year is a feasible alternative to assigning or providing lists of research projects from which to select a project.

  7. Do dynamic regional models add value to the global model projections of Indian monsoon?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Swati; Ghosh, Subimal; Sahana, A. S.; Vittal, H.; Karmakar, Subhankar

    2017-02-01

    Dynamic Regional Climate Models (RCMs) work at fine resolution for a limited region and hence they are presumed to simulate regional climate better than General Circulation Models (GCMs). Simulations by RCMs are used for impacts assessment, often without any evaluation. There is a growing debate on the added value made by the regional models to the projections of GCMs specifically for the regions like, United States and Europe. Evaluation of RCMs for Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) has been overlooked in literature, though there are few disjoint studies on Indian monsoon extremes and biases. Here we present a comprehensive study on the evaluations of RCMs for the ISMR with all its important characteristics such as northward and eastward propagation, onset, seasonal rainfall patterns, intra-seasonal oscillations, spatial variability and patterns of extremes. We evaluate nine regional simulations from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment and compare them with their host Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-5 GCM projections. We do not find any consistent improvement in the RCM simulations with respect to their host GCMs for any of the characteristics of Indian monsoon except the spatial variation. We also find that the simulations of the ISMR characteristics by a good number of RCMs, are worse than those of their host GCMs. No consistent added value is observed in the RCM simulations of changes in ISMR characteristics over recent periods, compared to past; though there are few exceptions. These results highlight the need for proper evaluation before utilizing regional models for impacts assessment and subsequent policy making for sustainable climate change adaptation.

  8. Open to Suggestion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Journal of Reading, 1984

    1984-01-01

    Contributors offer suggestions concerning parents as reading stimulators, book discussions, a test bank for the secondary school/college reading lab, standardized reading tests, television reading, plagiarism, vocabulary development, and book reports. (FL)

  9. Open To Suggestion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Journal of Reading, 1988

    1988-01-01

    Suggests class activities in three short articles including: (1) "Students Evaluate Reading," by Lenore Sandel; (2) "Solving Verbal Analogies," by Edward J. Dwyer; and (3) "Becoming Testwise," by Dean Schoen. (RS)

  10. Modelling of human low frequency sound localization acuity demonstrates dominance of spatial variation of interaural time difference and suggests uniform just-noticeable differences in interaural time difference.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosanna C G Smith

    Full Text Available Sound source localization is critical to animal survival and for identification of auditory objects. We investigated the acuity with which humans localize low frequency, pure tone sounds using timing differences between the ears. These small differences in time, known as interaural time differences or ITDs, are identified in a manner that allows localization acuity of around 1° at the midline. Acuity, a relative measure of localization ability, displays a non-linear variation as sound sources are positioned more laterally. All species studied localize sounds best at the midline and progressively worse as the sound is located out towards the side. To understand why sound localization displays this variation with azimuthal angle, we took a first-principles, systemic, analytical approach to model localization acuity. We calculated how ITDs vary with sound frequency, head size and sound source location for humans. This allowed us to model ITD variation for previously published experimental acuity data and determine the distribution of just-noticeable differences in ITD. Our results suggest that the best-fit model is one whereby just-noticeable differences in ITDs are identified with uniform or close to uniform sensitivity across the physiological range. We discuss how our results have several implications for neural ITD processing in different species as well as development of the auditory system.

  11. 苏宁云商商业模式分析及发展建议%Analysis of Commercial Model and Developing Suggestions about Suning

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王喆薇

    2015-01-01

    With the rapid development of online shopping and the rise of electronic commerce, more and more enterprises into the internet. At the same time, with the rapid development of e-commerce, the online retail industry has also brought impact onto the traditional retail industry, promoting the innovation of the business model. Suning was produced under such a background. Firstly, analyzing Suning model, found the innovation and mode of operation, and then discusses the existing cloud business model, and finally development suggestions are put forward.%随着网购的兴起和电子商务的蓬勃发展,越来越多的企业涌上互联网。在电子商务快速发展的同时,网上零售业也给传统零售业带来了冲击,促使其创新商业模式。苏宁云商就是在这样一种背景下产生的。文章首先对苏宁云商的商业模式进行分析,发现其创新点和运作方式,然后探讨云商模式存在的问题,最后对苏宁云商的未来提出发展建议。

  12. Disentangling unisensory from fusion effects in the attentional modulation of McGurk effects: a Bayesian modeling study suggests that fusion is attention-dependent

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwartz, Jean-Luc; Tiiippana, Kaisa; Andersen, Tobias

    2010-01-01

    The McGurk effect has been shown to be modulated by attention. However, it remains unclear whether attentional effects are due to changes in unisensory processing or in the fusion mechanism. In this paper, we used published experimental data showing that distraction of visual attention weakens th...... Selection criterion. Our findings suggest that distraction of visual attention affects fusion by decreasing the weight of the visual input.......The McGurk effect has been shown to be modulated by attention. However, it remains unclear whether attentional effects are due to changes in unisensory processing or in the fusion mechanism. In this paper, we used published experimental data showing that distraction of visual attention weakens...... the McGurk effect, to fit either the Fuzzy Logical Model of Perception (FLMP) in which the fusion mechanism is fixed, or a variant of it in which the fusion mechanism could be varied depending on attention. The latter model was associated with a larger likelihood when assessed with a Bayesian Model...

  13. The alpha-fetoprotein knock-out mouse model suggests that parental behavior is sexually differentiated under the influence of prenatal estradiol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Matthieu; Pawluski, Jodi L; Brock, Olivier; Douhard, Quentin; Bakker, Julie

    2010-04-01

    In rodent species, sexual differentiation of the brain for many reproductive processes depends largely on estradiol. This was recently confirmed again by using the alpha-fetoprotein knockout (AFP-KO) mouse model, which lacks the protective actions of alpha-fetoprotein against maternal estradiol and as a result represents a good model to determine the contribution of prenatal estradiol to the sexual differentiation of the brain and behavior. Female AFP-KO mice were defeminized and masculinized with regard to their neuroendocrine responses as well as sexual behavior. Since parental behavior is also strongly sexually differentiated in mice, we used the AFP-KO mouse model here to ask whether parental responses are differentiated prenatally under the influence of estradiol. It was found that AFP-KO females showed longer latencies to retrieve pups to the nest and also exhibited lower levels of crouching over the pups in the nest in comparison to WT females. In fact, they resembled males (WT and AFP-KO). Other measures of maternal behavior, for example the incidence of infanticide, tended to be higher in AFP-KO females than in WT females but this increase failed to reach statistical significance. The deficits observed in parental behavior of AFP-KO females could not be explained by any changes in olfactory function, novelty recognition or anxiety. Thus our results suggest that prenatal estradiol defeminizes the parental brain in mice.

  14. Power Grid Construction Project Portfolio Optimization Based on Bi-level programming model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Erdong; Li, Shangqi

    2017-08-01

    As the main body of power grid operation, county-level power supply enterprises undertake an important emission to guarantee the security of power grid operation and safeguard social power using order. The optimization of grid construction projects has been a key issue of power supply capacity and service level of grid enterprises. According to the actual situation of power grid construction project optimization of county-level power enterprises, on the basis of qualitative analysis of the projects, this paper builds a Bi-level programming model based on quantitative analysis. The upper layer of the model is the target restriction of the optimal portfolio; the lower layer of the model is enterprises’ financial restrictions on the size of the enterprise project portfolio. Finally, using a real example to illustrate operation proceeding and the optimization result of the model. Through qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, the bi-level programming model improves the accuracy and normative standardization of power grid enterprises projects.

  15. Evaluation of Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Simulated by Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Mark; Proshuntinsky, Andrew; Aksenov, Yevgeny; Nguyen, An T.; Lindsay, Ron; Haas, Christian; Zhang, Jinlun; Diansky, Nikolay; Kwok, Ron; Maslowski, Wieslaw; Hakkinen, Sirpa; Ashik, Igor; De Cuevas, Beverly

    2012-01-01

    Six Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project model simulations are compared with estimates of sea ice thickness derived from pan-Arctic satellite freeboard measurements (2004-2008); airborne electromagnetic measurements (2001-2009); ice draft data from moored instruments in Fram Strait, the Greenland Sea, and the Beaufort Sea (1992-2008) and from submarines (1975-2000); and drill hole data from the Arctic basin, Laptev, and East Siberian marginal seas (1982-1986) and coastal stations (1998-2009). Despite an assessment of six models that differ in numerical methods, resolution, domain, forcing, and boundary conditions, the models generally overestimate the thickness of measured ice thinner than approximately 2 mand underestimate the thickness of ice measured thicker than about approximately 2m. In the regions of flat immobile landfast ice (shallow Siberian Seas with depths less than 25-30 m), the models generally overestimate both the total observed sea ice thickness and rates of September and October ice growth from observations by more than 4 times and more than one standard deviation, respectively. The models do not reproduce conditions of fast ice formation and growth. Instead, the modeled fast ice is replaced with pack ice which drifts, generating ridges of increasing ice thickness, in addition to thermodynamic ice growth. Considering all observational data sets, the better correlations and smaller differences from observations are from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II and Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System models.

  16. Exploring the uncertainties of early detection results: model-based interpretation of mayo lung project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Berman Barbara

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Mayo Lung Project (MLP, a randomized controlled clinical trial of lung cancer screening conducted between 1971 and 1986 among male smokers aged 45 or above, demonstrated an increase in lung cancer survival since the time of diagnosis, but no reduction in lung cancer mortality. Whether this result necessarily indicates a lack of mortality benefit for screening remains controversial. A number of hypotheses have been proposed to explain the observed outcome, including over-diagnosis, screening sensitivity, and population heterogeneity (initial difference in lung cancer risks between the two trial arms. This study is intended to provide model-based testing for some of these important arguments. Method Using a micro-simulation model, the MISCAN-lung model, we explore the possible influence of screening sensitivity, systematic error, over-diagnosis and population heterogeneity. Results Calibrating screening sensitivity, systematic error, or over-diagnosis does not noticeably improve the fit of the model, whereas calibrating population heterogeneity helps the model predict lung cancer incidence better. Conclusions Our conclusion is that the hypothesized imperfection in screening sensitivity, systematic error, and over-diagnosis do not in themselves explain the observed trial results. Model fit improvement achieved by accounting for population heterogeneity suggests a higher risk of cancer incidence in the intervention group as compared with the control group.

  17. Simulated Models Suggest That Price per Calorie Is the Dominant Price Metric That Low-Income Individuals Use for Food Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beheshti, Rahmatollah; Igusa, Takeru; Jones-Smith, Jessica

    2016-11-01

    The price of food has long been considered one of the major factors that affects food choices. However, the price metric (e.g., the price of food per calorie or the price of food per gram) that individuals predominantly use when making food choices is unclear. Understanding which price metric is used is especially important for studying individuals with severe budget constraints because food price then becomes even more important in food choice. We assessed which price metric is used by low-income individuals in deciding what to eat. With the use of data from NHANES and the USDA Food and Nutrient Database for Dietary Studies, we created an agent-based model that simulated an environment representing the US population, wherein individuals were modeled as agents with a specific weight, age, and income. In our model, agents made dietary food choices while meeting their budget limits with the use of 1 of 3 different metrics for decision making: energy cost (price per calorie), unit price (price per gram), and serving price (price per serving). The food consumption patterns generated by our model were compared to 3 independent data sets. The food choice behaviors observed in 2 of the data sets were found to be closest to the simulated dietary patterns generated by the price per calorie metric. The behaviors observed in the third data set were equidistant from the patterns generated by price per calorie and price per serving metrics, whereas results generated by the price per gram metric were further away. Our simulations suggest that dietary food choice based on price per calorie best matches actual consumption patterns and may therefore be the most salient price metric for low-income populations. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.

  18. A bio-inspired, computational model suggests velocity gradients of optic flow locally encode ordinal depth at surface borders and globally they encode self-motion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raudies, Florian; Ringbauer, Stefan; Neumann, Heiko

    2013-09-01

    Visual navigation requires the estimation of self-motion as well as the segmentation of objects from the background. We suggest a definition of local velocity gradients to compute types of self-motion, segment objects, and compute local properties of optical flow fields, such as divergence, curl, and shear. Such velocity gradients are computed as velocity differences measured locally tangent and normal to the direction of flow. Then these differences are rotated according to the local direction of flow to achieve independence of that direction. We propose a bio-inspired model for the computation of these velocity gradients for video sequences. Simulation results show that local gradients encode ordinal surface depth, assuming self-motion in a rigid scene or object motions in a nonrigid scene. For translational self-motion velocity, gradients can be used to distinguish between static and moving objects. The information about ordinal surface depth and self-motion can help steering control for visual navigation.

  19. A model-based telecoupling analysis for the Patagonian shelf: a new suggested template on how to study global seabirds-fisheries interactions for sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huettmann, F.; Raya Rey, A.

    2016-12-01

    The Southwest Atlantic Ocean, and the extended Patagonian shelf in particular, presents us with a very complex ecosystem of global relevance for food security and global peace. It is a highly productive area and it maintains a great diversity and abundance of seabird species. Fisheries have been identified as a main stressor for the marine ecosystems and as one of the main causes of seabird population declines. Using the framework of telecoupling - a sophisticated description of natural and socioeconomic interactions over large distances - here we present a fresh holistic look at the dynamic fisheries and (endangered) seabird interactions for the Patagonian shelf. While data are sparse, we employ machine learning-based predictions for a more holistic overview. We found that these waters of the Patagonian Shelf are significantly affected by many nations and outside players. We found that the input, output and spill-over of the Patagonian shelf ecosystem are distributed virtually all over the globe. In addition, we also found `losers' (=nations and their citizens that are left out entirely from this global resource and its governance). Our findings are based on best-available public trade and fish harvest analysis for this region, linked with predictive modeling (machine learning and geographic information systems GIS) to generalize for nine seabird species. We conveniently extend this analysis with a perspective from the financial sector and policy that enables the Patagonian fisheries as international investment and development projects. As increasingly recognized elsewhere, we believe that telecoupling can serve as a new but rather sophisticated study template highlighting wider complexities, bottlenecks and sensitivities for a vastly improved conservation research on oceans and global sustainability questions.

  20. The modeled structure of the RNA dependent RNA polymerase of GBV-C Virus suggests a role for motif E in Flaviviridae RNA polymerases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dutartre Hélène

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Flaviviridae virus family includes major human and animal pathogens. The RNA dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp plays a central role in the replication process, and thus is a validated target for antiviral drugs. Despite the increasing structural and enzymatic characterization of viral RdRps, detailed molecular replication mechanisms remain unclear. The hepatitis C virus (HCV is a major human pathogen difficult to study in cultured cells. The bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV is often used as a surrogate model to screen antiviral drugs against HCV. The structure of BVDV RdRp has been recently published. It presents several differences relative to HCV RdRp. These differences raise questions about the relevance of BVDV as a surrogate model, and cast novel interest on the "GB" virus C (GBV-C. Indeed, GBV-C is genetically closer to HCV than BVDV, and can lead to productive infection of cultured cells. There is no structural data for the GBV-C RdRp yet. Results We show in this study that the GBV-C RdRp is closest to the HCV RdRp. We report a 3D model of the GBV-C RdRp, developed using sequence-to-structure threading and comparative modeling based on the atomic coordinates of the HCV RdRp structure. Analysis of the predicted structural features in the phylogenetic context of the RNA polymerase family allows rationalizing most of the experimental data available. Both available structures and our model are explored to examine the catalytic cleft, allosteric and substrate binding sites. Conclusion Computational methods were used to infer evolutionary relationships and to predict the structure of a viral RNA polymerase. Docking a GTP molecule into the structure allows defining a GTP binding pocket in the GBV-C RdRp, such as that of BVDV. The resulting model suggests a new proposition for the mechanism of RNA synthesis, and may prove useful to design new experiments to implement our knowledge on the initiation mechanism of RNA

  1. Attitudes to Suggestions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    PETER; JOHNSON

    2007-01-01

    As an Australian expat teaching English in China for over four years, I often encourage my students to not only learn the English language but also try to understand Western culture. This includes the fact that Westerners frequently initiate proactive suggestions on any aspects of soci-

  2. Modeling nonstationary extreme value distributions with nonlinear functions: An application using multiple precipitation projections for U.S. cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Um, Myoung-Jin; Kim, Yeonjoo; Markus, Momcilo; Wuebbles, Donald J.

    2017-09-01

    Climate extremes, such as heavy precipitation events, have become more common in recent decades, and nonstationarity concepts have increasingly been adopted to model hydrologic extremes. Various issues are associated with applying nonstationary modeling to extremes, and in this study, we focus on assessing the need for different forms of nonlinear functions in a nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) model of different annual maximum precipitation (AMP) time series. Moreover, we suggest an efficient approach for selecting the nonlinear functions of a nonstationary GEV model. Based on observed and multiple projected AMP data for eight cities across the U.S., three separate tasks are proposed. First, we conduct trend and stationarity tests for the observed and projected data. Second, AMP series are fit with thirty different nonlinear functions, and the best functions among these are selected. Finally, the selected nonlinear functions are used to model the location parameter of a nonstationary GEV model and stationary and nonstationary GEV models with a linear function. Our results suggest that the simple use of nonlinear functions might prove useful with nonstationary GEV models of AMP for different locations with different types of model results.

  3. Model Projections of East Asian Summer Climate under the'Free Arctic'Scenario

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Hui-Jun; ZHANG Ying

    2010-01-01

    This paper addresses the'ice-free Arctic'issue under the future global warming scenario.Four coupled climate models used in the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP3)were selected to project summer climate conditions over East Asia once the Arctic becomes ice-free.The models project that an ice-free Arctic summer will begin in the 2060s under the SRESA I B(according to IPCC Special Reports on Emissions Scenarios)simulations.Our results show that the East Asian summer monsoons will tend to be stronger and that the water vapor transport to central northern China will be strengthened,leading to increased summer precipitation in central northern China.The models also project an intensified Antarctic Oscillation,a condition which favors increased precipitation in South China's Yangtze River Valley.The overall precipitation in Northwest China is projected to increase under ice-free Arctic summer conditions.

  4. An alternative model for within plate basalts generation suggested by their major elements, trace elements and Pb-Sr-Nd isotope compositions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mashima, H.

    2003-12-01

    Based on geochemistry, the recent favor model for within-plate basalts (WPB) is plumes with eclogite originally formed by inversion of basaltic oceanic crust into eclogite in subduction zones (e.g. Hauri, 1996). Melting experiments of basalt/peridotie hybrids (Kogiso and Takahashi, 1998), however, have demonstrated that the hybrid source model could not explain major element features of WPB, such as FeO* enrichment and Al2O3 depletion compared with MORB. Melting experiments of peridotites and basalt/peridotite hybrids indicate that the sources of WPB are peridotites abnormally enriched in FeO*. Such Fe-rich sources could not be formed by extraction of basalt melt from typical peridotite or mixing of basalt and typical peridotite. A potential candidate for the abnormally Fe-rich source is Archean peridotitic komatiite (APK) which is enriched in FeO* compared with typical peridotite. Attractive features of the recycled APK melting model are as follows: 1) It explains why within-plate basalts are FeO*-rich and Al2O3-poor relative to MORB because of large proportion of cpx in APK. 2) Moderate partial melting of APK forms LREE-enriched partial melts because of selective fusion of cpx. 3) It explains near bulk earth Nd isotope compositions because of relatively flat REE patterns of APK. 4) Archean age of APK is consistent with Pb isotope ofWPB suggesting their sources have Archean age. 5) Compositional spectrum of Archean komatiite suites ranging from peridotitic komatiite to basalts explains that of WPB from silica-under saturated basalt to silica-oversaturated andesite.

  5. Modeling one-mode projection of bipartite networks by tagging vertex information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, Jian; Meng, Ying-Ying; Chen, Hsinchun; Huang, Hong-Qiao; Li, Guo-Ying

    2016-09-01

    Traditional one-mode projection models are less informative than their original bipartite networks. Hence, using such models cannot control the projection's structure freely. We proposed a new method for modeling the one-mode projection of bipartite networks, which thoroughly breaks through the limitations of the available one-mode projecting methods by tagging the vertex information of bipartite networks in their one-mode projections. We designed a one-mode collaboration network model by using the method presented in this paper. The simulation results show that our model matches three real networks very well and outperforms the available collaboration network models significantly, which reflects the idea that our method is ideal for modeling one-mode projection models of bipartite graphs and that our one-mode collaboration network model captures the crucial mechanisms of the three real systems. Our study reveals that size growth, individual aging, random collaboration, preferential collaboration, transitivity collaboration and multi-round collaboration are the crucial mechanisms of collaboration networks, and the lack of some of the crucial mechanisms is the main reason that the other available models do not perform as well as ours.

  6. Significance of model credibility in estimating climate projection distributions for regional hydroclimatological risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, M.

    2008-01-01

    Ensembles of historical climate simulations and climate projections from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset were investigated to determine how model credibility affects apparent relative scenario likelihoods in regional risk assessments. Methods were developed and applied in a Northern California case study. An ensemble of 59 twentieth century climate simulations from 17 WCRP CMIP3 models was analyzed to evaluate relative model credibility associated with a 75-member projection ensemble from the same 17 models. Credibility was assessed based on how models realistically reproduced selected statistics of historical climate relevant to California climatology. Metrics of this credibility were used to derive relative model weights leading to weight-threshold culling of models contributing to the projection ensemble. Density functions were then estimated for two projected quantities (temperature and precipitation), with and without considering credibility-based ensemble reductions. An analysis for Northern California showed that, while some models seem more capable at recreating limited aspects twentieth century climate, the overall tendency is for comparable model performance when several credibility measures are combined. Use of these metrics to decide which models to include in density function development led to local adjustments to function shapes, but led to limited affect on breadth and central tendency, which were found to be more influenced by 'completeness' of the original ensemble in terms of models and emissions pathways. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  7. Impacts of SST Warming in tropical Indian Ocean on CMIP5 model-projected summer rainfall changes over Central Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yong; Zhang, Huqiang

    2016-05-01

    Based on the historical and RCP8.5 experiments from 25 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, the impacts of sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the tropical Indian Ocean (IO) on the projected change in summer rainfall over Central Asia (CA) are investigated. The analysis is designed to answer three questions: (1) Can CMIP5 models reproduce the observed influence of the IO sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on the CA rainfall variations and the associated dynamical processes? (2) How well do the models agree on their projected rainfall changes over CA under warmed climate? (3) How much of the uncertainty in such rainfall projections is due to different impacts of IO SSTs in these models? The historical experiments show that in most models summer rainfall over CA are positively correlated to the SSTs in the IO. Furthermore, for models with higher rainfall-SSTs correlations, the dynamical processes accountable for such impacts are much closer to what have been revealed in observational data: warmer SSTs tend to favor the development of anti-cyclonic circulation patterns at low troposphere over north and northwest of the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. These anomalous circulation patterns correspond to significantly enhanced southerly flow which carries warm and moisture air mass from the IO region up to the northeast. At the same time, there is a cyclonic flow over the central and eastern part of the CA which further brings the tropical moisture into the CA and provides essential moist conditions for its rainfall generation. In the second half of twenty-first century, although all the 25 models simulate warmed SSTs, significant uncertainty exists in their projected rainfall changes over CA: half of them suggest summer rainfall increases, but the other half project rainfall decreases. However, when we select seven models out of the 25 based on their skills in capturing the dynamical processes as observed, then the model projected changes

  8. 2007版地调项目预算标准存在的问题及建议%The Problems that We Face in Budget Standard for the Projects of Geological Survey 2007 and Some Suggestions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孔令; 储潇姝; 彭国良; 张津伟; 张元; 胡晓丽; 刘京

    2015-01-01

    2007地调项目预算标准的主要问题有:不含生产设备折旧费、职工福利费、利税等;地形测绘、地质测量、遥感地质、物化探、钻探、岩矿试验、其他地质工作、工地建筑部分个别项目在标准执行过程中与市场经济体制下的市场价格出现了较大的偏差;地质勘查新手段新工艺因无可选取的合理指导价,出现了推广创新难的问题,一定程度上阻碍了地质勘查技术水平的发展。建议:(1)继续开展现行预算标准《国土资源调查预算标准(地质调查部分)》的跟踪评估工作,并对存在的问题和完善性建议进一步论证,及时颁行新的预算标准或补充规定。(2)建立健全预算标准动态调整机制,加强地质调查项目预算动态管理。%This paper ifrst analyzes the main problems regarding budget standard for the projects of geological survey of 2007. These are as follows: depreciation, employee services and beneifts, and proifts and taxes were not included; in the implementation of the standard, a few projects which involved topographic surveying, geological survey, remote sensing geology, geophysical geochemical exploration, drilling exploration, rock ore test, other geological work, and field construction deviated from the market prices for the market economy. There were some dififcult problems in promoting and innovating new means and new process of geological exploration due to the reasonable guided-price, which hindered the development of geological prospecting technology level to some extent. In light of this, this paper points out that we should devote our efforts and work to continually carry out follow-up assessments about the current budget standard, further expound and prove some improving suggestions for existing problems, and enact new budget standard or supplementary provisions in a timely manner. At the same time, a sound budget standard dynamic adjustment mechanism should be put

  9. Suggestions for Teaching Practice

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAN Na-na

    2013-01-01

    Teacher development and teaching practice(TP) have caught the eyes of researchers at home and abroad for many years. Many western scholars hold that reflective teaching is an efficient way to promote teacher development, but traditional TP is prevailing in China. Based on the merits and demerits of traditional TP and reflective TP, the author hopes to provide some suggestions for the people involved to promote the development of teacher education.

  10. A Comparative Study of Projection Models on China's Food Economy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhang XiaoYong, Xiaoyong

    2004-01-01

    During the last two decades, China's food supply and demand has been a hot topic for both politicians and academics given China's rapid economic development and its sheer market size. Accordingly, researchers are trying to project the future development of China's food economy. This article reviews

  11. A comparative study of projection models on China's food economy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhang XiaoYong, Xiaoyong

    2003-01-01

    During the last two decades, China's food supply and demand has been a hot topic for both politicians and academics given China's rapid economic development and its sheer market size. Accordingly, researchers are trying to project the future development of China's food economy. This article reviews

  12. Modelling in cross-disciplinary authentic student research projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Heck

    2010-01-01

    In the Dutch secondary education system, students must carry out at the end of their school career a rather large research or design project to demonstrate their ability to apply acquired knowledge and skills while pursuing a research question or design goal in some depth. They are encouraged to cho

  13. A model for personal life project design on the basis of vocational guidance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isaac Geovanni Mendoza Cedeño

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This article is intended to propose a model for developing vocational education personal life projects and its corresponding theoretical foundations. Therefore, the argument is undertaken on the model developed from philosophical views, epistemological, pedagogical, sociological, and psychological axiological, and a model is provided as a basis for the development of vocational education strategy for personal life project development contributing effectively to the development of responsible autonomy and high school students.

  14. Convergent modeling of past soil organic carbon stocks but divergent projections

    OpenAIRE

    Luo, Z.; Wang, E; Zheng, H.; J. A. Baldock; O. J. Sun; Shao, Q.

    2015-01-01

    Soil carbon models are important tool to understand soil carbon balance and project carbon stocks in terrestrial ecosystems, particularly under global change. The initialization and/or parameterization of soil carbon models can vary among studies even when the same model and dataset are used, causing potential uncertainties in projections. Although a few studies have assessed such uncertainties, it is yet unclear what these uncertainties are correlated with ...

  15. Reduced Order Aeroservoelastic Models with Rigid Body Modes Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Complex aeroelastic and aeroservoelastic phenomena can be modeled on complete aircraft configurations generating models with millions of degrees of freedom. Starting...

  16. Innovation Leadership in Innovation Projects: The Application of the Reflective Practitioner Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oeij, P.R.A.; Gaspersz, J.; Vuuren, T. van; Dhondt, S.

    2016-01-01

    In 1983 Donald Schön wrote the Reflective Practitioner which implicitly but never explicitly contains a model of steps what it is to act as a reflective practitioner in real life. In this paper we apply that model and try to make this latent (tacit) model into a manifest (explicit) model. Project le

  17. Innovation Leadership in Innovation Projects: The Application of the Reflective Practitioner Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oeij, P.R.A.

    2016-01-01

    In 1982 Donald Schön wrote the Reflective Practitioner which implicitly but never explicitly contains a model of steps what it is to act as a reflective practitioner in real life. In this paper we apply that model and try to make this latent (tacit) model into a manifest (explicit) model. Project le

  18. Supporting multidisciplinary model-based water management projects: a user perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scholten, H.; Kassahun, A.

    2006-01-01

    Multidisciplinary model-based water management is a complex process. Projects that have to follow this process may encounter many problems, related to miscommunication, malpractice, misuse of the model, insufficient knowledge of the modeled problems and overselling of model capabilities. This leads

  19. Innovation Leadership in Innovation Projects: The Application of the Reflective Practitioner Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oeij, P.R.A.

    2016-01-01

    In 1982 Donald Schön wrote the Reflective Practitioner which implicitly but never explicitly contains a model of steps what it is to act as a reflective practitioner in real life. In this paper we apply that model and try to make this latent (tacit) model into a manifest (explicit) model. Project

  20. A Project Portfolio Management model adapted to non-profit organizations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabrício Martins Lacerda

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available As they strive towards greater professionalism in carrying out their activities, non-profit organizations (NPOs have begun paying attention to project management. The non-profit sector (NPS has also begun to adopt strategic planning techniques, thus making the acceptance of project portfolio management (PPM methodology a natural consequence. This article aims to propose a project portfolio management model adapted to the context of NPOs.

  1. Base composition at mtDNA boundaries suggests a DNA triple helix model for human mitochondrial DNA large-scale rearrangements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocher, Christophe; Letellier, Thierry; Copeland, William C; Lestienne, Patrick

    2002-06-01

    Different mechanisms have been proposed to account for mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) instability based on the presence of short homologous sequences (direct repeats, DR) at the potential boundaries of mtDNA rearrangements. Among them, slippage-mispairing of the replication complex during the asymmetric replication cycle of the mammalian mitochondrial DNA has been proposed to account for the preferential localization of deletions. This mechanism involves a transfer of the replication complex from the first neo-synthesized heavy (H) strand of the DR1, to the DR2, thus bypassing the intervening sequence and producing a deleted molecule. Nevertheless, the nature of the bonds between the DNA strands remains unknown as the forward sequence of DR2, beyond the replication complex, stays double-stranded. Here, we have analyzed the base composition of the DR at the boundaries of mtDNA deletions and duplications and found a skewed pyrimidine content of about 75% in the light-strand DNA template. This suggests the possible building of a DNA triple helix between the G-rich neo-synthesized DR1 and the base-paired homologous G.C-rich DR2. In vitro experiments with the purified human DNA polymerase gamma subunits enabled us to show that the third DNA strand may be used as a primer for DNA replication, using a template with the direct repeat forming a hairpin, with which the primer could initiate DNA replication. These data suggest a novel molecular basis for mitochondrial DNA rearrangements through the distributive nature of the DNA polymerase gamma, at the level of the direct repeats. A general model accounting for large-scale mitochondrial DNA deletion and duplication is proposed. These experiments extend to a DNA polymerase from an eucaryote source the use of a DNA triple helix strand as a primer, like other DNA polymerases from phage and bacterial origins.

  2. Differential expression of two bc1 complexes in the strict acidophilic chemolithoautotrophic bacterium Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans suggests a model for their respective roles in iron or sulfur oxidation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruscella, Patrice; Appia-Ayme, Corinne; Levicán, Gloria; Ratouchniak, Jeanine; Jedlicki, Eugenia; Holmes, David S; Bonnefoy, Violaine

    2007-01-01

    Three strains of the strict acidophilic chemolithoautotrophic Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans, including the type strain ATCC 23270, contain a petIIABC gene cluster that encodes the three proteins, cytochrome c1, cytochrome b and a Rieske protein, that constitute a bc1 electron-transfer complex. RT-PCR and Northern blotting show that the petIIABC cluster is co-transcribed with cycA, encoding a cytochrome c belonging to the c4 family, sdrA, encoding a putative short-chain dehydrogenase, and hip, encoding a high potential iron-sulfur protein, suggesting that the six genes constitute an operon, termed the petII operon. Previous results indicated that A. ferrooxidans contains a second pet operon, termed the petI operon, which contains a gene cluster that is similarly organized except that it lacks hip. Real-time PCR and Northern blot experiments demonstrate that petI is transcribed mainly in cells grown in medium containing iron, whereas petII is transcribed in cells grown in media containing sulfur or iron. Primer extension experiments revealed possible transcription initiation sites for the petI and petII operons. A model is presented in which petI is proposed to encode the bc1 complex, functioning in the uphill flow of electrons from iron to NAD(P), whereas petII is suggested to be involved in electron transfer from sulfur (or formate) to oxygen (or ferric iron). A. ferrooxidans is the only organism, to date, to exhibit two functional bc1 complexes.

  3. A new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP experiment designed for climate and chemistry models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Tilmes

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available A new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP experiment "G4 specified stratospheric aerosols" (short name: G4SSA is proposed to investigate the impact of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on atmospheric composition, climate, and the environment. In contrast to the earlier G4 GeoMIP experiment, which requires an emission of sulphur dioxide (SO2 into the model, a prescribed aerosol forcing file is provided to the community, to be consistently applied to future model experiments between 2020 and 2100. This stratospheric aerosol distribution, with a total burden of about 2 Tg S has been derived using the ECHAM5-HAM microphysical model, based on a continuous annual tropical emission of 8 Tg SO2 year−1. A ramp-up of geoengineering in 2020 and a ramp-down in 2070 over a period of two years are included in the distribution, while a background aerosol burden should be used for the last 3 decades of the experiment. The performance of this experiment using climate and chemistry models in a multi-model comparison framework will allow us to better understand the significance of the impact of geoengineering and the abrupt termination after 50 years on climate and composition of the atmosphere in a changing environment. The zonal and monthly mean stratospheric aerosol input dataset is available at https://www2.acd.ucar.edu/gcm/geomip-g4-specified-stratospheric-aerosol-data-set.

  4. Data-driven modelling of structured populations a practical guide to the integral projection model

    CERN Document Server

    Ellner, Stephen P; Rees, Mark

    2016-01-01

    This book is a “How To” guide for modeling population dynamics using Integral Projection Models (IPM) starting from observational data. It is written by a leading research team in this area and includes code in the R language (in the text and online) to carry out all computations. The intended audience are ecologists, evolutionary biologists, and mathematical biologists interested in developing data-driven models for animal and plant populations. IPMs may seem hard as they involve integrals. The aim of this book is to demystify IPMs, so they become the model of choice for populations structured by size or other continuously varying traits. The book uses real examples of increasing complexity to show how the life-cycle of the study organism naturally leads to the appropriate statistical analysis, which leads directly to the IPM itself. A wide range of model types and analyses are presented, including model construction, computational methods, and the underlying theory, with the more technical material in B...

  5. Integrative modeling of eQTLs and cis-regulatory elements suggests mechanisms underlying cell type specificity of eQTLs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher D Brown

    Full Text Available Genetic variants in cis-regulatory elements or trans-acting regulators frequently influence the quantity and spatiotemporal distribution of gene transcription. Recent interest in expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL mapping has paralleled the adoption of genome-wide association studies (GWAS for the analysis of complex traits and disease in humans. Under the hypothesis that many GWAS associations tag non-coding SNPs with small effects, and that these SNPs exert phenotypic control by modifying gene expression, it has become common to interpret GWAS associations using eQTL data. To fully exploit the mechanistic interpretability of eQTL-GWAS comparisons, an improved understanding of the genetic architecture and causal mechanisms of cell type specificity of eQTLs is required. We address this need by performing an eQTL analysis in three parts: first we identified eQTLs from eleven studies on seven cell types; then we integrated eQTL data with cis-regulatory element (CRE data from the ENCODE project; finally we built a set of classifiers to predict the cell type specificity of eQTLs. The cell type specificity of eQTLs is associated with eQTL SNP overlap with hundreds of cell type specific CRE classes, including enhancer, promoter, and repressive chromatin marks, regions of open chromatin, and many classes of DNA binding proteins. These associations provide insight into the molecular mechanisms generating the cell type specificity of eQTLs and the mode of regulation of corresponding eQTLs. Using a random forest classifier with cell specific CRE-SNP overlap as features, we demonstrate the feasibility of predicting the cell type specificity of eQTLs. We then demonstrate that CREs from a trait-associated cell type can be used to annotate GWAS associations in the absence of eQTL data for that cell type. We anticipate that such integrative, predictive modeling of cell specificity will improve our ability to understand the mechanistic basis of human

  6. The development of stochastic process modeling through risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Kwang Ho; Roh, Myung Sub [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    There are so many different factors to consider when constructing a nuclear power plant successfully from planning to decommissioning. According to PMBOK, all projects have nine domains from a holistic project management perspective. They are equally important to all projects, however, this study focuses mostly on the processes required to manage timely completion of the project and conduct risk management. The overall objective of this study is to let you know what the risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project is, and understand how to implement the stochastic process modeling through risk management. Building the Nuclear Power Plant is required a great deal of time and fundamental knowledge related to all engineering. That means that integrated project scheduling management with so many activities is necessary and very important. Simulation techniques for scheduling of NPP project using Open Plan program, Crystal Ball program, and Minitab program can be useful tools for designing optimal schedule planning. Thus far, Open Plan and Monte Carlo programs have been used to calculate the critical path for scheduling network analysis. And also, Minitab program has been applied to monitor the scheduling risk. This approach to stochastic modeling through risk analysis of project activities is very useful for optimizing the schedules of activities using Critical Path Method and managing the scheduling control of NPP project. This study has shown new approach to optimal scheduling of NPP project, however, this does not consider the characteristic of activities according to the NPP site conditions. Hence, this study needs more research considering those factors.

  7. Modelling income distribution impacts of water sector projects in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, C S; Jones, S

    1991-09-01

    Dynamic analysis was conducted to assess the long-term impacts of water sector projects on agricultural income distribution, and sensitivity analysis was conducted to check the robustness of the 5 assumptions in this study of income distribution and water sector projects in Bangladesh. 7 transitions are analyzed for mutually exclusive irrigation and flooding projects: Nonirrigation to 1) LLP irrigation, 2) STW irrigation, 3) DTW irrigation, 4) major gravity irrigation, and manually operated shallow tubewell irrigation (MOSTI) and Flood Control Projects (FCD) of 6) medium flooded to shallow flooded, and 7) deeply flooded to shallow flooded. 5 analytical stages are involved: 1) farm budgets are derived with and without project cropping patterns for each transition. 2) Estimates are generated for value added/hectare from each transition. 3) Assumptions are made about the number of social classes, distribution of land ownership between classes, extent of tenancy for each social class, term of tenancy contracts, and extent of hiring of labor for each social class. 4) Annual value added/hectare is distributed among social classes. 5) Using Gini coefficients and simple ratios, the distribution of income between classes is estimated for with and without transition. Assumption I is that there are 4 social classes defined by land acreage: large farmers (5 acres), medium farmers (1.5-5.0), small farmers, (.01-1.49), and landless. Assumption II is that land distribution follows the 1978 Land Occupancy Survey (LOS). Biases, if any, are indicated. Assumption III is that large farmers sharecrop out 15% of land to small farmers. Assumption IV is that landlords provide nonirrigated crop land and take 50% of the crop, and, under irrigation, provide 50% of the fertilizer, pesticide, and irrigation costs and take 50% of the crop. Assumption V is that hired and family labor is assumed to be 40% for small farmers, 60% for medium farmers, and 80% for large farmers. It is understood that

  8. A Study on Project Planning Using the Deterministic and Probabilistic Models by Network Scheduling Techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rama.S

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Project planning is the important task in many areas like construction, resource allocation and many. A sequence of activities has to be performed to complete one task. Each activity has its unique processing time and all together to identify the critical activities which affect the completion of the project. In this paper the probabilistic and deterministic models to determine the project completion time and also the critical activities are considered. A case study on building construction project has been performed to demonstrate the application of the above said models. The two project scheduling namely PERT and CPM are used to determine numerically the different types of floating times of each activity and hence determined the critical path which plays an important role in the project completion time. Also a linear programing model has been developed to reduce the project completion time which optimize the resource allocation. To apply these techniques numerically the primary data from a housing project company in a metropolitan city has been taken, the network diagram of the activities involved in the building construction project has been drawn and the results are tabulated.

  9. Predicting Defects Using Information Intelligence Process Models in the Software Technology Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selvaraj, Manjula Gandhi; Jayabal, Devi Shree; Srinivasan, Thenmozhi; Balasubramanie, Palanisamy

    2015-01-01

    A key differentiator in a competitive market place is customer satisfaction. As per Gartner 2012 report, only 75%-80% of IT projects are successful. Customer satisfaction should be considered as a part of business strategy. The associated project parameters should be proactively managed and the project outcome needs to be predicted by a technical manager. There is lot of focus on the end state and on minimizing defect leakage as much as possible. Focus should be on proactively managing and shifting left in the software life cycle engineering model. Identify the problem upfront in the project cycle and do not wait for lessons to be learnt and take reactive steps. This paper gives the practical applicability of using predictive models and illustrates use of these models in a project to predict system testing defects thus helping to reduce residual defects.

  10. Coupling survey data with drift model results suggests that local spawning is important for Calanus finmarchicus production in the Barents Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kvile, Kristina Øie; Fiksen, Øyvind; Prokopchuk, Irina; Opdal, Anders Frugård

    2017-01-01

    The copepod Calanus finmarchicus is an important part of the diet for several large fish stocks feeding in the Atlantic waters of the Barents Sea. Determining the origin of the new generation copepodites present on the Barents Sea shelf in spring can shed light on the importance of local versus imported production of C. finmarchicus biomass in this region. In this study, we couple large-scale spatiotemporal survey data (> 30 years in both Norwegian Sea and Barents Sea areas) with drift trajectories from a hydrodynamic model to back-calculate and map the spatial distribution of C. finmarchicus from copepod to egg, allowing us to identify potential adult spawning areas. Assuming the adult stage emerges from overwintering in the Norwegian Sea, our results suggest that copepodites sampled at the Barents Sea entrance are a mix of locally spawned individuals and long-distance-travellers advected northwards along the Norwegian shelf edge. However, copepodites sampled farther east in the Barents Sea (33°30‧E) are most likely spawned on the Barents Sea shelf, potentially from females that have overwintered locally. Our results support that C. finmarchicus dynamics in the Barents Sea are not, at least in the short-term, solely driven by advection from the Norwegian Sea, but that local production may be more important than commonly believed.

  11. A stochastic model of gene-culture coevolution suggested by the "culture historical hypothesis" for the evolution of adult lactose absorption in humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aoki, K

    1986-05-01

    A stochastic model of gene-culture coevolution, suggested by the "culture historical hypothesis" of Simoons and McCracken, is presented. According to this hypothesis, adult lactose absorption, believed to be an autosomal dominant trait, attained a high frequency in some human populations due to the positive selection pressure induced by culturally determined milk use in those populations. Two-dimensional Kolmogorov backward equations with appropriate boundary conditions are derived for the ultimate fixation probability of milk users, of the gene for adult lactose absorption, and of both jointly, and for the average time until fixation of the gene. These boundary value problems are solved numerically by the Gauss-Seidel method. I define a theoretical measure of the correlation between gene and culture in terms of the three ultimate fixation probabilities. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to check and extend the numerical results and also to obtain the first arrival time at gene frequency 0.70, which is approximately the highest observed frequency in any population. Two results that pertain to the culture historical hypothesis are obtained. First, the incomplete correlation observed between adult lactose absorption and milk use does not necessarily constitute evidence against the hypothesis. Second, for the postulated genetic change to have occurred within the 6000-year period since the advent of dairying, either the effective population size was of the order of 100, or, if it was of larger order, the selection coefficient probably had to exceed 5%.

  12. Similarities in the structure of the transcriptional repressor AmtR in two different space groups suggest a model for the interaction with GlnK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sevvana, Madhumati; Hasselt, Kristin; Grau, Florian C; Burkovski, Andreas; Muller, Yves A

    2017-03-01

    AmtR belongs to the TetR family of transcription regulators and is a global nitrogen regulator that is induced under nitrogen-starvation conditions in Corynebacterium glutamicum. AmtR regulates the expression of transporters and enzymes for the assimilation of ammonium and alternative nitrogen sources, for example urea, amino acids etc. The recognition of operator DNA by homodimeric AmtR is not regulated by small-molecule effectors as in other TetR-family members but by a trimeric adenylylated PII-type signal transduction protein named GlnK. The crystal structure of ligand-free AmtR (AmtRorth) has been solved at a resolution of 2.1 Å in space group P21212. Comparison of its quaternary assembly with the previously solved native AmtR structure (PDB entry 5dy1) in a trigonal crystal system (AmtRtri) not only shows how a solvent-content reduction triggers a space-group switch but also suggests a model for how dimeric AmtR might stoichiometrically interact with trimeric adenylylated GlnK.

  13. Teaching Engineering Statistics with Technology, Group Learning, Contextual Projects, Simulation Models and Student Presentations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romeu, Jorge Luis

    2008-01-01

    This article discusses our teaching approach in graduate level Engineering Statistics. It is based on the use of modern technology, learning groups, contextual projects, simulation models, and statistical and simulation software to entice student motivation. The use of technology to facilitate group projects and presentations, and to generate,…

  14. Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Davie, J.C.S.; Falloon, P.D.; Kahana, R.; Dankers, R.; Betts, R.; Portmann, F.T.; Wisser, D.; Clark, D.B.; Ito, A.; Masaki, Y.; Nishina, K.; Fekete, B.; Tessler, Z.; Wada, Y.; Liu, X.; Tang, Q.; Hagemann, S.; Stacke, T.; Pavlick, R.; Schaphoff, S.; Gosling, S.N.; Franssen, W.H.P.; Arnell, N.

    2013-01-01

    Future changes in runoff can have important implications for water resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project) simulations forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative Concentration Pathw

  15. Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Davie, J. C. S.; Falloon, P. D.; Kahana, R.; Dankers, R.; Betts, R.; Portmann, F. T.; Wisser, D.; Clark, D. B.; Ito, A.; Masaki, Y.; Nishina, K.; Fekete, B.; Tessler, Z.; Wada, Y.; Liu, X.; Tang, Q.; Hagemann, S.; Stacke, T.; Pavlick, R.; Schaphoff, S.; Gosling, S. N.; Franssen, W.; Arnell, N.

    2013-01-01

    Future changes in runoff can have important implications for water resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) simulations forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative Concentration Pathwa

  16. Using UML Modeling to Facilitate Three-Tier Architecture Projects in Software Engineering Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitra, Sandeep

    2014-01-01

    This article presents the use of a model-centric approach to facilitate software development projects conforming to the three-tier architecture in undergraduate software engineering courses. Many instructors intend that such projects create software applications for use by real-world customers. While it is important that the first version of these…

  17. Exploring Students' Computational Thinking Skills in Modeling and Simulation Projects: : A Pilot Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grgurina, Natasa; van Veen, Klaas; Barendsen, Erik; Zwaneveld, Bert; Suhre, Cor; Gal-Ezer, Judith; Sentance, Sue; Vahrenhold, Jan

    2015-01-01

    Computational Thinking (CT) is gaining a lot of attention in education. We explored how to discern the occurrences of CT in the projects of 12th grade high school students in the computer science (CS) course. Within the projects, they constructed models and ran simulations of phenomena from other (S

  18. Using UML Modeling to Facilitate Three-Tier Architecture Projects in Software Engineering Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitra, Sandeep

    2014-01-01

    This article presents the use of a model-centric approach to facilitate software development projects conforming to the three-tier architecture in undergraduate software engineering courses. Many instructors intend that such projects create software applications for use by real-world customers. While it is important that the first version of these…

  19. Hotspots of uncertainty in land use and land cover change projections: a global scale model comparison

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Prestele, Reinhard; Alexander, Peter; Rounsevell, Mark; Arneth, Almut; Calvin, Katherine; Doelman, Jonathan; Eitelberg, David; Engström, Kerstin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Jain, Atul K.; Krisztin, Tamás; Kyle, Page; Meiyappan, Prasanth; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald D.; Schaldach, Rüdiger; Schüngel, Jan; Stehfest, Elke; Tabeau, Andrzej; Meijl, van Hans; Vliet, van Jasper; Verburg, Peter H.

    2016-01-01

    Model-based global projections of future land use and land cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms

  20. Teaching Engineering Statistics with Technology, Group Learning, Contextual Projects, Simulation Models and Student Presentations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romeu, Jorge Luis

    2008-01-01

    This article discusses our teaching approach in graduate level Engineering Statistics. It is based on the use of modern technology, learning groups, contextual projects, simulation models, and statistical and simulation software to entice student motivation. The use of technology to facilitate group projects and presentations, and to generate,…