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Sample records for model projections suggest

  1. A Model Suggestion to Predict Leverage Ratio for Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Özlem Tüz

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Due to the nature, construction is an industry with high uncertainty and risk. Construction industry carries high leverage ratios. Firms with low equities work in big projects through progress payment system, but in this case, even a small negative in the planned cash flows constitute a major risk for the company.The use of leverage, with a small investment to achieve profit targets large-scale, high-profit, but also brings a high risk with it. Investors may lose all or the portion of the money. In this study, monitoring and measuring of the leverage ratio because of the displacement in cash inflows of construction projects which uses high leverage and low cash to do business in the sector is targeted. Cash need because of drifting the cash inflows may be seen due to the model. Work should be done in the early stages of the project with little capital but in the later stages, rapidly growing capital need arises.The values obtained from the model may be used to supply the capital held in the right time by anticipating the risks because of the delay in cashflow of construction projects which uses high leverage ratio.

  2. A Model Suggestion to Predict Leverage Ratio for Construction Projects

    OpenAIRE

    Özlem Tüz; Şafak Ebesek

    2013-01-01

    Due to the nature, construction is an industry with high uncertainty and risk. Construction industry carries high leverage ratios. Firms with low equities work in big projects through progress payment system, but in this case, even a small negative in the planned cash flows constitute a major risk for the company.The use of leverage, with a small investment to achieve profit targets large-scale, high-profit, but also brings a high risk with it. Investors may lose all or the portion of th...

  3. Hypnosis, suggestion, and suggestibility: an integrative model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynn, Steven Jay; Laurence, Jean-Roch; Kirsch, Irving

    2015-01-01

    This article elucidates an integrative model of hypnosis that integrates social, cultural, cognitive, and neurophysiological variables at play both in and out of hypnosis and considers their dynamic interaction as determinants of the multifaceted experience of hypnosis. The roles of these variables are examined in the induction and suggestion stages of hypnosis, including how they are related to the experience of involuntariness, one of the hallmarks of hypnosis. It is suggested that studies of the modification of hypnotic suggestibility; cognitive flexibility; response sets and expectancies; the default-mode network; and the search for the neurophysiological correlates of hypnosis, more broadly, in conjunction with research on social psychological variables, hold much promise to further understanding of hypnosis.

  4. Health service marketing: a suggested model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaltman, G; Vertinsky, I

    1971-07-01

    Focus is on social marketing in a health context, and attention is directed to the development of a psychosocial model of health-related behavior with emphasis on developing countries. Each component of the model is identified and defined, with some of the interactions among its components noted. There are both advantages and limitations to using the model in a social marketing context. The model's primary contribution at this stage of its development is in structuring and organizing diverse sources of knowledge and data. New relationships are suggested which were not previously considered in the literature. The relationship between risk-taking and perceived susceptibility is 1 example. The model also provides a basis for simulating health processes, providing a testing ground for health policies before their actual implementation. The model's perspective is uniquely appropriate for the development of social marketing strategies, and it promises to encompass health market behavior in various cultural settings.

  5. Involved in a construction project? These suggestions may help.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junikiewicz, J J

    1986-04-01

    Hospital materials managers are often key members of a new construction or major renovation project management team. Those involved in such projects frequently find the experience traumatizing because they aren't prepared for the unexpected demands it puts on them. To minimize the mistakes and frustration associated with a construction or renovation project, the author provides a checklist of issues materials managers need to address when preparing for a project.

  6. Knowledge Model: Project Knowledge Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Durao, Frederico; Dolog, Peter; Grolin, Daniel

    2009-01-01

    The Knowledge model for project management serves several goals:Introducing relevant concepts of project management area for software development (Section 1). Reviewing and understanding the real case requirements from the industrial perspective. (Section 2). Giving some preliminary suggestions...

  7. Simple suggestions for including vertical physics in oil spill models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D'Asaro, Eric; University of Washington, Seatle, WA

    2001-01-01

    Current models of oil spills include no vertical physics. They neglect the effect of vertical water motions on the transport and concentration of floating oil. Some simple ways to introduce vertical physics are suggested here. The major suggestion is to routinely measure the density stratification of the upper ocean during oil spills in order to develop a database on the effect of stratification. (Author)

  8. Halloween Costumes May Suggest Influence of Violent Models on Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owen, John W.; Sterling, Bruce S.

    Halloween costumes may be used to examine the influence violent models have on children. On Halloween evening observers recorded the frequency of violent and nonviolent costumes worn by children. When all of the data are inspected they suggest that children confronted with several aggressive models may be more likely to identify with the…

  9. Using suggestion to model different types of automatic writing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, E; Mehta, M A; Oakley, D A; Guilmette, D N; Gabay, A; Halligan, P W; Deeley, Q

    2014-05-01

    Our sense of self includes awareness of our thoughts and movements, and our control over them. This feeling can be altered or lost in neuropsychiatric disorders as well as in phenomena such as "automatic writing" whereby writing is attributed to an external source. Here, we employed suggestion in highly hypnotically suggestible participants to model various experiences of automatic writing during a sentence completion task. Results showed that the induction of hypnosis, without additional suggestion, was associated with a small but significant reduction of control, ownership, and awareness for writing. Targeted suggestions produced a double dissociation between thought and movement components of writing, for both feelings of control and ownership, and additionally, reduced awareness of writing. Overall, suggestion produced selective alterations in the control, ownership, and awareness of thought and motor components of writing, thus enabling key aspects of automatic writing, observed across different clinical and cultural settings, to be modelled. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  10. Projection Models 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Illerup, J. B.; Birr-Pedersen, K.; Mikkelsen, M. H

    Models for projection of SO2-, NOx-, NMVOC- and NH3-emissions to the atmosphere have been developed and the Danish emissions have been projected until 2010 from a basis scenario including all implemented and planned measures. The projections of the four pollutants indicate that it may be difficult...... to achieve the emission ceilings given in the Gothenburg Protocol and the EU directive on national emission ceilings in 2010. In addition to the basis scenario, 8 emission reduction scenarios for different sectors have been analysed in order to estimate the emission saving potential and financial and welfare...

  11. Modelling of Arabidopsis LAX3 expression suggests auxin homeostasis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellor, Nathan; Péret, Benjamin; Porco, Silvana; Sairanen, Ilkka; Ljung, Karin; Bennett, Malcolm; King, John

    2015-02-07

    Emergence of new lateral roots from within the primary root in Arabidopsis has been shown to be regulated by the phytohormone auxin, via the expression of the auxin influx carrier LAX3, mediated by the ARF7/19 IAA14 signalling module (Swarup et al., 2008). A single cell model of the LAX3 and IAA14 auxin response was formulated and used to demonstrate that hysteresis and bistability may explain the experimentally observed 'all-or-nothing' LAX3 spatial expression pattern in cortical cells containing a gradient of auxin concentrations. The model was tested further by using a parameter fitting algorithm to match model output with qRT-PCR mRNA expression data following exogenous auxin treatment. It was found that the model is able to show good agreement with the data, but only when the exogenous auxin signal is degraded over time, at a rate higher than that measured in the experimental medium, suggesting the triggering of an endogenous auxin homeostasis mechanism. Testing the model over a more physiologically relevant range of extracellular auxin shows bistability and hysteresis still occur when using the optimised parameters, providing the rate of LAX3 active auxin transport is sufficiently high relative to passive diffusion. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Suggestion of a Management Model: Total Entropy Management

    OpenAIRE

    Goksel Alpan,; Ismail Efil

    2011-01-01

    “Entropy” can be defined as the measure of disorder, uncertainty and consumed energy in a system or in the Universe. In the study, entropy concept is used as metaphor and it is aimed to construct the conceptual basis of a new management model which can be utilized to manage all entropy sources effectively. The study is conveyed with a multidisciplinary and holistic approach and by the use of qualitative research techniques. In the study, it is examined the relations of the entropy concept wit...

  13. In vitro model suggests oxidative stress involved in keratoconus disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karamichos, D.; Hutcheon, A. E. K.; Rich, C. B.; Trinkaus-Randall, V.; Asara, J. M.; Zieske, J. D.

    2014-04-01

    Keratoconus (KC) affects 1:2000 people and is a disorder where cornea thins and assumes a conical shape. Advanced KC requires surgery to maintain vision. The role of oxidative stress in KC remains unclear. We aimed to identify oxidative stress levels between human corneal keratocytes (HCKs), fibroblasts (HCFs) and keratoconus cells (HKCs). Cells were cultured in 2D and 3D systems. Vitamin C (VitC) and TGF-β3 (T3) were used for 4 weeks to stimulate self-assembled extracellular matrix (ECM). No T3 used as controls. Samples were analyzed using qRT-PCR and metabolomics. qRT-PCR data showed low levels of collagen I and V, as well as keratocan for HKCs, indicating differentiation to a myofibroblast phenotype. Collagen type III, a marker for fibrosis, was up regulated in HKCs. We robustly detected more than 150 metabolites of the targeted 250 by LC-MS/MS per condition and among those metabolites several were related to oxidative stress. Lactate levels, lactate/malate and lactate/pyruvate ratios were elevated in HKCs, while arginine and glutathione/oxidized glutathione ratio were reduced. Similar patterns found in both 2D and 3D. Our data shows that fibroblasts exhibit enhanced oxidative stress compared to keratocytes. Furthermore the HKC cells exhibit the greatest level suggesting they may have a myofibroblast phenotype.

  14. Scientific education and European citizenship. Suggestions and results from the European project SEDEC (Italian original version

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Ceriani

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Two concepts seemingly distant from each other, scientific education and European citizenship, have been the basis for "SEDEC - Science Education for the Development of European Citizenship", a European project funded by the European Commission in the framework of the Socrates/Comenius programme, aiming at producing training material addressed to European teachers. Started in autumn 2005, the project will end in 2008 with an in-service training course for European teachers and educators.

  15. Water Stress Projection Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-01

    www.eia.gov/ forecasts /aeo/tables_ref.cfm U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). 2014. National land cover database (NLCD). Multi - Resolution Land...Engineers Washington, DC 20314-1000 ERDC/CERL TR-16-32 ii Abstract U.S. Army stationing is a constant multi -scale process. Large scale station- ing, which...20 4.6 Model output

  16. The INTRACOIN model comparison project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lawson, G.

    1982-01-01

    The International Nuclide Transport Code Intercomparison (INTRACOIN) project is investigating the different models and associated computer codes describing the transport of radionuclides in flowing ground-water following the disposal of solid radioactive wastes in geologic formations. Level I of the project has shown good agreement in the numerical accuracy of most of the codes. In Level II the ability of the codes to model field experiments with radioactive tracers will be compared. Level III will show to what extent the adoption of different models and computer codes for the transport of radionuclides with ground water affects the results of repository assessments. (U.K.)

  17. Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating......-based graphs which function as risk-related decision support for the appraised transport infrastructure project....

  18. Models and theories of prescribing decisions: A review and suggested a new model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murshid, Mohsen Ali; Mohaidin, Zurina

    2017-01-01

    To date, research on the prescribing decisions of physician lacks sound theoretical foundations. In fact, drug prescribing by doctors is a complex phenomenon influenced by various factors. Most of the existing studies in the area of drug prescription explain the process of decision-making by physicians via the exploratory approach rather than theoretical. Therefore, this review is an attempt to suggest a value conceptual model that explains the theoretical linkages existing between marketing efforts, patient and pharmacist and physician decision to prescribe the drugs. The paper follows an inclusive review approach and applies the previous theoretical models of prescribing behaviour to identify the relational factors. More specifically, the report identifies and uses several valuable perspectives such as the 'persuasion theory - elaboration likelihood model', the stimuli-response marketing model', the 'agency theory', the theory of planned behaviour,' and 'social power theory,' in developing an innovative conceptual paradigm. Based on the combination of existing methods and previous models, this paper suggests a new conceptual model of the physician decision-making process. This unique model has the potential for use in further research.

  19. Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating......-based graphs which functions as risk-related decision support for the appraised transport infrastructure project. The presentation of RSF is demonstrated by using an appraisal case concerning a new airfield in the capital of Greenland, Nuuk....

  20. Models and theories of prescribing decisions: A review and suggested a new model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Murshid M

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available To date, research on the prescribing decisions of physician lacks sound theoretical foundations. In fact, drug prescribing by doctors is a complex phenomenon influenced by various factors. Most of the existing studies in the area of drug prescription explain the process of decision-making by physicians via the exploratory approach rather than theoretical. Therefore, this review is an attempt to suggest a value conceptual model that explains the theoretical linkages existing between marketing efforts, patient and pharmacist and physician decision to prescribe the drugs. The paper follows an inclusive review approach and applies the previous theoretical models of prescribing behaviour to identify the relational factors. More specifically, the report identifies and uses several valuable perspectives such as the ‘persuasion theory - elaboration likelihood model’, the stimuli–response marketing model’, the ‘agency theory’, the theory of planned behaviour,’ and ‘social power theory,’ in developing an innovative conceptual paradigm. Based on the combination of existing methods and previous models, this paper suggests a new conceptual model of the physician decision-making process. This unique model has the potential for use in further research.

  1. Models and theories of prescribing decisions: A review and suggested a new model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohaidin, Zurina

    2017-01-01

    To date, research on the prescribing decisions of physician lacks sound theoretical foundations. In fact, drug prescribing by doctors is a complex phenomenon influenced by various factors. Most of the existing studies in the area of drug prescription explain the process of decision-making by physicians via the exploratory approach rather than theoretical. Therefore, this review is an attempt to suggest a value conceptual model that explains the theoretical linkages existing between marketing efforts, patient and pharmacist and physician decision to prescribe the drugs. The paper follows an inclusive review approach and applies the previous theoretical models of prescribing behaviour to identify the relational factors. More specifically, the report identifies and uses several valuable perspectives such as the ‘persuasion theory - elaboration likelihood model’, the stimuli–response marketing model’, the ‘agency theory’, the theory of planned behaviour,’ and ‘social power theory,’ in developing an innovative conceptual paradigm. Based on the combination of existing methods and previous models, this paper suggests a new conceptual model of the physician decision-making process. This unique model has the potential for use in further research. PMID:28690701

  2. Spiral model pilot project information model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-01-01

    The objective was an evaluation of the Spiral Model (SM) development approach to allow NASA Marshall to develop an experience base of that software management methodology. A discussion is presented of the Information Model (IM) that was used as part of the SM methodology. A key concept of the SM is the establishment of an IM to be used by management to track the progress of a project. The IM is the set of metrics that is to be measured and reported throughout the life of the project. These metrics measure both the product and the process to ensure the quality of the final delivery item and to ensure the project met programmatic guidelines. The beauty of the SM, along with the IM, is the ability to measure not only the correctness of the specification and implementation of the requirements but to also obtain a measure of customer satisfaction.

  3. MODELS OF PROJECT REVERSE ENGINEERING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Віктор Володимирович ІВАНОВ

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Reverse engineering decided important scientific and technical problems of increasing the cost of the existing technical product by transforming it into a product with other features or design. Search ideas of the new application of existing products on the base of heuristic analysis were created. The concept of reverse engineering and its division into three types: conceptual, aggregate and complete was expanded. The use of heuristic methods for reverse engineering concept was showed. The modification model of Reverse engineering based on the model of РМВОК was developed. Our model includes two new phases: identification and transformation. At the identification phase, technical control is made. At the transformation phase, search heuristic idea of the new applied existing technical product was made. The model of execution phase that included heuristic methods, metrological equipment, and CAD/CAM/CAE program complex was created. The model that connected economic indicators of reverse engineering project was developed.

  4. Constrained bayesian inference of project performance models

    OpenAIRE

    Sunmola, Funlade

    2013-01-01

    Project performance models play an important role in the management of project success. When used for monitoring projects, they can offer predictive ability such as indications of possible delivery problems. Approaches for monitoring project performance relies on available project information including restrictions imposed on the project, particularly the constraints of cost, quality, scope and time. We study in this paper a Bayesian inference methodology for project performance modelling in ...

  5. Solid Waste Projection Model: Model user's guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stiles, D.L.; Crow, V.L.

    1990-08-01

    The Solid Waste Projection Model (SWPM) system is an analytical tool developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford company (WHC) specifically to address solid waste management issues at the Hanford Central Waste Complex (HCWC). This document, one of six documents supporting the SWPM system, contains a description of the system and instructions for preparing to use SWPM and operating Version 1 of the model. 4 figs., 1 tab

  6. Space market model development project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishop, Peter C.

    1987-01-01

    The objectives of the research program, Space Market Model Development Project, (Phase 1) were: (1) to study the need for business information in the commercial development of space; and (2) to propose a design for an information system to meet the identified needs. Three simultaneous research strategies were used in proceeding toward this goal: (1) to describe the space business information which currently exists; (2) to survey government and business representatives on the information they would like to have; and (3) to investigate the feasibility of generating new economical information about the space industry.

  7. INDICATIVE MODEL OF DEVIATIONS IN PROJECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Олена Борисівна ДАНЧЕНКО

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The article shows the process of constructing the project deviations indicator model. It based on a conceptual model of project deviations integrated management (PDIM. During the project different causes (such as risks, changes, problems, crises, conflicts, stress lead to deviations of integrated project indicators - time, cost, quality, and content. For a more detailed definition of where in the project deviations occur and how they are dangerous for the whole project, it needs to develop an indicative model of project deviations. It allows identifying the most dangerous deviations that require PDIM. As a basis for evaluation of project's success has been taken famous model IPMA Delta. During the evaluation, IPMA Delta estimated project management competence of organization in three modules: I-Module ("Individuals" - a self-assessment personnel, P-module ("Projects" - self-assessment of projects and/or programs, and O-module ("Organization" - used to conduct interviews with selected people during auditing company. In the process of building an indicative model of deviations in the project, the first step is the assessment of project management in the organization by IPMA Delta. In the future, built cognitive map and matrix of system interconnections of the project, which conducted simulations and built a scale of deviations for the selected project. They determined a size and place of deviations. To identify the detailed causes of deviations in the project management has been proposed to use the extended system of indicators, which is based on indicators of project management model Project Excellence. The proposed indicative model of deviations in projects allows to estimate the size of variation and more accurately identify the place of negative deviations in the project and provides the project manager information for operational decision making for the management of deviations in the implementation of the project

  8. W-320 Project thermal modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathyanarayana, K., Fluor Daniel Hanford

    1997-03-18

    This report summarizes the results of thermal analysis performed to provide a technical basis in support of Project W-320 to retrieve by sluicing the sludge in Tank 241-C-106 and to transfer into Tank 241-AY-102. Prior theraml evaluations in support of Project W-320 safety analysis assumed the availability of 2000 to 3000 CFM, as provided by Tank Farm Operations, for tank floor cooling channels from the secondary ventilation system. As this flow availability has no technical basis, a detailed Tank 241-AY-102 secondary ventilation and floor coating channel flow model was developed and analysis was performed. The results of the analysis show that only about 150 cfm flow is in floor cooLing channels. Tank 241-AY-102 thermal evaluation was performed to determine the necessary cooling flow for floor cooling channels using W-030 primary ventilation system for different quantities of Tank 241-C-106 sludge transfer into Tank 241-AY-102. These sludge transfers meet different options for the project along with minimum required modification of the ventilation system. Also the results of analysis for the amount of sludge transfer using the current system is presented. The effect of sludge fluffing factor, heat generation rate and its distribution between supernatant and sludge in Tank 241-AY-102 on the amount of sludge transfer from Tank 241-C-106 were evaluated and the results are discussed. Also transient thermal analysis was performed to estimate the time to reach the steady state. For a 2 feet sludge transfer, about 3 months time will be requirad to reach steady state. Therefore, for the purpose of process control, a detailed transient thermal analysis using GOTH Computer Code will be required to determine transient response of the sludge in Tank 241-AY-102. Process control considerations are also discussed to eliminate the potential for a steam bump during retrieval and storage in Tanks 241-C-106 and 241-AY-102 respectively.

  9. Conceptual Models in Health Informatics Research: A Literature Review and Suggestions for Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Kathleen; Sockolow, Paulina

    2016-02-24

    Contributing to health informatics research means using conceptual models that are integrative and explain the research in terms of the two broad domains of health science and information science. However, it can be hard for novice health informatics researchers to find exemplars and guidelines in working with integrative conceptual models. The aim of this paper is to support the use of integrative conceptual models in research on information and communication technologies in the health sector, and to encourage discussion of these conceptual models in scholarly forums. A two-part method was used to summarize and structure ideas about how to work effectively with conceptual models in health informatics research that included (1) a selective review and summary of the literature of conceptual models; and (2) the construction of a step-by-step approach to developing a conceptual model. The seven-step methodology for developing conceptual models in health informatics research explained in this paper involves (1) acknowledging the limitations of health science and information science conceptual models; (2) giving a rationale for one's choice of integrative conceptual model; (3) explicating a conceptual model verbally and graphically; (4) seeking feedback about the conceptual model from stakeholders in both the health science and information science domains; (5) aligning a conceptual model with an appropriate research plan; (6) adapting a conceptual model in response to new knowledge over time; and (7) disseminating conceptual models in scholarly and scientific forums. Making explicit the conceptual model that underpins a health informatics research project can contribute to increasing the number of well-formed and strongly grounded health informatics research projects. This explication has distinct benefits for researchers in training, research teams, and researchers and practitioners in information, health, and other disciplines.

  10. Conceptual Models in Health Informatics Research: A Literature Review and Suggestions for Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Background Contributing to health informatics research means using conceptual models that are integrative and explain the research in terms of the two broad domains of health science and information science. However, it can be hard for novice health informatics researchers to find exemplars and guidelines in working with integrative conceptual models. Objectives The aim of this paper is to support the use of integrative conceptual models in research on information and communication technologies in the health sector, and to encourage discussion of these conceptual models in scholarly forums. Methods A two-part method was used to summarize and structure ideas about how to work effectively with conceptual models in health informatics research that included (1) a selective review and summary of the literature of conceptual models; and (2) the construction of a step-by-step approach to developing a conceptual model. Results The seven-step methodology for developing conceptual models in health informatics research explained in this paper involves (1) acknowledging the limitations of health science and information science conceptual models; (2) giving a rationale for one’s choice of integrative conceptual model; (3) explicating a conceptual model verbally and graphically; (4) seeking feedback about the conceptual model from stakeholders in both the health science and information science domains; (5) aligning a conceptual model with an appropriate research plan; (6) adapting a conceptual model in response to new knowledge over time; and (7) disseminating conceptual models in scholarly and scientific forums. Conclusions Making explicit the conceptual model that underpins a health informatics research project can contribute to increasing the number of well-formed and strongly grounded health informatics research projects. This explication has distinct benefits for researchers in training, research teams, and researchers and practitioners in information, health, and other

  11. A proposed model for construction project management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The lack of a proper communication skills model for project management may contribute to ineffective project communication. This article reports the results of a study done to identify the most important project management communication skills and applications of communication that effective project managers should ...

  12. Lunar Mapping and Modeling Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noble, Sarah K.; French, R. A.; Nall, M. E.; Muery, K. G.

    2009-01-01

    The Lunar Mapping and Modeling Project (LMMP) has been created to manage the development of a suite of lunar mapping and modeling products that support the Constellation Program (CxP) and other lunar exploration activities, including the planning, design, development, test and operations associated with lunar sortie missions, crewed and robotic operations on the surface, and the establishment of a lunar outpost. The information provided through LMMP will assist CxP in: planning tasks in the areas of landing site evaluation and selection, design and placement of landers and other stationary assets, design of rovers and other mobile assets, developing terrain-relative navigation (TRN) capabilities, and assessment and planning of science traverses. The project draws on expertise from several NASA and non-NASA organizations (MSFC, ARC, GSFC, JPL, CRREL US Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, and the USGS). LMMP will utilize data predominately from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, but also historical and international lunar mission data (e.g. Apollo, Lunar Orbiter, Kaguya, Chandrayaan-1), as available and appropriate, to meet Constellation s data needs. LMMP will provide access to this data through a single intuitive and easy to use NASA portal that transparently accesses appropriately sanctioned portions of the widely dispersed and distributed collections of lunar data, products and tools. Two visualization systems are being developed, a web-based system called Lunar Mapper, and a desktop client, ILIADS, which will be downloadable from the LMMP portal. LMMP will provide such products as local and regional imagery and DEMs, hazard assessment maps, lighting and gravity models, and resource maps. We are working closely with the LRO team to prevent duplication of efforts and to ensure the highest quality data products. While Constellation is our primary customer, LMMP is striving to be as useful as possible to the lunar science community, the lunar

  13. Sharks, Minnows, and Wheelbarrows: Calculus Modeling Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Michael D.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to present two very active applied modeling projects that were successfully implemented in a first semester calculus course at Hollins University. The first project uses a logistic equation to model the spread of a new disease such as swine flu. The second project is a human take on the popular article "Do Dogs Know…

  14. North American Carbon Project (NACP) Regional Model-Model and Model-Data Intercomparison Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huntzinger, D. N.; Post, W. M.; Jacobson, A. R.; Cook, R. B.

    2009-05-01

    Available observations are localized and widely separated in both space and time, so we depend heavily on models to characterize, understand, and predict carbon fluxes at regional and global scales. The results from each model differ because they use different approaches (forward vs. inverse), modeling strategies (detailed process, statistical, observation based), process representation, boundary conditions, initial conditions, and driver data. To investigate these differences we conducted a model-model and model-data comparison using available forward ecosystem model and atmospheric inverse output, along with regional scale inventory data. Forward or "bottom-up" models typically estimate carbon fluxes through a set of physiological relationships, and are based on our current mechanistic understanding of how carbon is exchanged within ecosystems. Inverse or "top-down" analyses use measured atmospheric concentrations of CO2, coupled with an atmospheric transport model to infer surface flux distributions. Although bottom-up models do fairly well at reproducing measured fluxes (i.e., net ecosystem exchange) at a given location, they vary considerably in their estimates of carbon flux over regional or continental scales, suggesting difficulty in scaling mechanistic relationships to large areas and/or timescales. Conversely, top-down inverse models predict fluxes that are quantitatively consistent with atmospheric measurements, suggesting that they are capturing large scale variability in flux quite well, but offer limited insights into the processes controlling this variability and how fluxes vary at fine spatial scales. The analyses focused on identifying and quantifying spatial and temporal patterns of carbon fluxes among the models; quantifying across-model variability, as well as comparing simulated or estimated surface fluxes and biomass to observed values at regional to continental scales for the period 2000-2005. The analysis focused on the following three

  15. Modeling Research Project Risks with Fuzzy Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodea, Constanta Nicoleta; Dascalu, Mariana Iuliana

    2009-01-01

    The authors propose a risks evaluation model for research projects. The model is based on fuzzy inference. The knowledge base for fuzzy process is built with a causal and cognitive map of risks. The map was especially developed for research projects, taken into account their typical lifecycle. The model was applied to an e-testing research…

  16. Design Studies Suggested by an Abstract Model for a Medical Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, J. R.; Kimura, T. D.; Moore, P.; Gillett, W.; Stucki, M. J.

    1980-01-01

    We have developed a formal model of a database system that is unusual in that it has the ability to represent information about its own structure and to insure semantic consistency. The model distinguishes general laws from instances of events and objects, but many of its mechanisms serve both categories of information. The model forms a substrate upon which an information structure appropriate to neonatology is being developed. Some example queries are shown and a design study for an associative memory suggested by the model is described briefly.

  17. Focal relationships and the environment of project marketing. A literature review with suggestions for practitioners and future research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skaates, Maria Anne; Tikkanen, Henrikki

    2000-01-01

    Project marketing is an important mode of business-to-business marketing today. This paper assesses recent project marketing contributions, including predominantly those of members of the (mainly European) International Network for Project Marketing and Systems Selling (INPM). The emphasis...... of the review is upon the connection between focal relationships and the wider environment in which project marketing and systems selling takes place. First, several common definitions of projects and project marketing are presented and discussed. Second, the implications of three specific features of project...... business - discontinuity, uniqueness, and complexity - for the focal relationship and the broader marketing environment are considered at the level of multiple projects. Third, three overlapping types of postures that project-selling firms can adopt in relation to their focal relationships...

  18. The Canvas model in project formulation

    OpenAIRE

    Ferreira-Herrera, Diana Carolina

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The aim of this article is to determine the relevance of the Canvas methodology in project formulation through model characterization, thus answering the question: Is the Canvas methodology a relevant model for project management in an entrepreneurial context? Description: The Canvas model seeks to manage projects as business units. It is a model intended for emphasizing the entrepreneurial potential in project management. For this, texts and articles that have provided the basis for...

  19. Intraspecific niche models for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) suggest potential variability in population-level response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maguire, Kaitlin C.; Shinneman, Douglas; Potter, Kevin M.; Hipkins, Valerie D.

    2018-01-01

    Unique responses to climate change can occur across intraspecific levels, resulting in individualistic adaptation or movement patterns among populations within a given species. Thus, the need to model potential responses among genetically distinct populations within a species is increasingly recognized. However, predictive models of future distributions are regularly fit at the species level, often because intraspecific variation is unknown or is identified only within limited sample locations. In this study, we considered the role of intraspecific variation to shape the geographic distribution of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), an ecologically and economically important tree species in North America. Morphological and genetic variation across the distribution of ponderosa pine suggest the need to model intraspecific populations: the two varieties (var. ponderosa and var. scopulorum) and several haplotype groups within each variety have been shown to occupy unique climatic niches, suggesting populations have distinct evolutionary lineages adapted to different environmental conditions. We utilized a recently-available, geographically-widespread dataset of intraspecific variation (haplotypes) for ponderosa pine and a recently-devised lineage distance modeling approach to derive additional, likely intraspecific occurrence locations. We confirmed the relative uniqueness of each haplotype-climate relationship using a niche-overlap analysis, and developed ecological niche models (ENMs) to project the distribution for two varieties and eight haplotypes under future climate forecasts. Future projections of haplotype niche distributions generally revealed greater potential range loss than predicted for the varieties. This difference may reflect intraspecific responses of distinct evolutionary lineages. However, directional trends are generally consistent across intraspecific levels, and include a loss of distributional area and an upward shift in elevation. Our results

  20. Mentoring for junior medical faculty: Existing models and suggestions for low-resource settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menon, Vikas; Muraleedharan, Aparna; Bhat, Ballambhattu Vishnu

    2016-02-01

    Globally, there is increasing recognition about the positive benefits and impact of mentoring on faculty retention rates, career satisfaction and scholarly output. However, emphasis on research and practice of mentoring is comparatively meagre in low and middle income countries. In this commentary, we critically examine two existing models of mentorship for medical faculty and offer few suggestions for an integrated hybrid model that can be adapted for use in low resource settings. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Coordinating the Provision of Health Services in Humanitarian Crises: a Systematic Review of Suggested Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotfi, Tamara; Bou-Karroum, Lama; Darzi, Andrea; Hajjar, Rayan; El Rahyel, Ahmed; El Eid, Jamale; Itani, Mira; Brax, Hneine; Akik, Chaza; Osman, Mona; Hassan, Ghayda; El-Jardali, Fadi; Akl, Elie

    2016-08-03

    Our objective was to identify published models of coordination between entities funding or delivering health services in humanitarian crises, whether the coordination took place during or after the crises. We included reports describing models of coordination in sufficient detail to allow reproducibility. We also included reports describing implementation of identified models, as case studies. We searched Medline, PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and the WHO Global Health Library. We also searched websites of relevant organizations. We followed standard systematic review methodology. Our search captured 14,309 citations. The screening process identified 34 eligible papers describing five models of coordination of delivering health services: the "Cluster Approach" (with 16 case studies), the 4Ws "Who is Where, When, doing What" mapping tool (with four case studies), the "Sphere Project" (with two case studies), the "5x5" model (with one case study), and the "model of information coordination" (with one case study). The 4Ws and the 5x5 focus on coordination of services for mental health, the remaining models do not focus on a specific health topic. The Cluster approach appears to be the most widely used. One case study was a mixed implementation of the Cluster approach and the Sphere model. We identified no model of coordination for funding of health service. This systematic review identified five proposed coordination models that have been implemented by entities funding or delivering health service in humanitarian crises. There is a need to compare the effect of these different models on outcomes such as availability of and access to health services.

  2. Suggestions and comments about preliminary plans of ABNT 20:04.002-001 standard 'Seismic actions for nuclear facilities project'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, W.A.

    1984-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of preliminary plans of standard 'seismic actions for nuclear facilities project'. This document presents since seismic event characterization up to details of structural project of nuclear facilities construction. (C.M.)

  3. A trophic model of fringing coral reefs in Nanwan Bay, southern Taiwan suggests overfishing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Pi-Jen; Shao, Kwang-Tsao; Jan, Rong-Quen; Fan, Tung-Yung; Wong, Saou-Lien; Hwang, Jiang-Shiou; Chen, Jen-Ping; Chen, Chung-Chi; Lin, Hsing-Juh

    2009-09-01

    Several coral reefs of Nanwan Bay, Taiwan have recently undergone shifts to macroalgal or sea anemone dominance. Thus, a mass-balance trophic model was constructed to analyze the structure and functioning of the food web. The fringing reef model was comprised of 18 compartments, with the highest trophic level of 3.45 for piscivorous fish. Comparative analyses with other reef models demonstrated that Nanwan Bay was similar to reefs with high fishery catches. While coral biomass was not lower, fish biomass was lower than those of reefs with high catches. Consequently, the sums of consumption and respiratory flows and total system throughput were also decreased. The Nanwan Bay model potentially suggests an overfished status in which the mean trophic level of the catch, matter cycling, and trophic transfer efficiency are extremely reduced.

  4. World energy projection system: Model documentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-06-01

    The World Energy Project System (WEPS) is an accounting framework that incorporates projects from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product) and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by hydropower, geothermal, coal, and natural gas to produce projections of world energy consumption published annually by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the International Energy Outlook (IEO) (Figure 1). Two independently documented models presented in Figure 1, the Oil Market Simulation (OMS) model and the World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES) provide projections of oil and nuclear power consumption published in the IEO. Output from a third independently documented model, and the International Coal Trade Model (ICTM), is not published in the IEO but is used in WEPS as a supply check on projections of world coal consumption produced by WEPS and published in the IEO. A WEPS model of natural gas production documented in this report provides the same type of implicit supply check on the WEPS projections of world natural gas consumption published in the IEO. Two additional models are included in Figure 1, the OPEC Capacity model and the Non-OPEC Oil Production model. These WEPS models provide inputs to the OMS model and are documented in this report

  5. 'Cape capture': Geologic data and modeling results suggest the holocene loss of a Carolina Cape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thieler, E.R.; Ashton, A.D.

    2011-01-01

    For more than a century, the origin and evolution of the set of cuspate forelands known as the Carolina Capes-Hatteras, Lookout, Fear, and Romain-off the eastern coast of the United States have been discussed and debated. The consensus conceptual model is not only that these capes existed through much or all of the Holocene transgression, but also that their number has not changed. Here we describe bathymetric, lithologic, seismic, and chronologic data that suggest another cape may have existed between Capes Hatteras and Lookout during the early to middle Holocene. This cape likely formed at the distal end of the Neuse-Tar-Pamlico fiuvial system during the early Holocene transgression, when this portion of the shelf was fiooded ca. 9 cal (calibrated) kyr B.P., and was probably abandoned by ca. 4 cal kyr B.P., when the shoreline attained its present general configuration. Previously proposed mechanisms for cape formation suggest that the large-scale, rhythmic pattern of the Carolina Capes arose from a hydrodynamic template or the preexisting geologic framework. Numerical modeling, however, suggests that the number and spacing of capes can be dynamic, and that a coast can self-organize in response to a high-angle-wave instability in shoreline shape. In shoreline evolution model simulations, smaller cuspate forelands are subsumed by larger neighbors over millennial time scales through a process of 'cape capture.' The suggested former cape in Raleigh Bay represents the first interpreted geological evidence of dynamic abandonment suggested by the self-organization hypothesis. Cape capture may be a widespread process in coastal environments with large-scale rhythmic shoreline features; its preservation in the sedimentary record will vary according to geologic setting, physical processes, and sea-level history. ?? 2011 Geological Society of America.

  6. Authority Delegation in Boyerahmad Health Centers through Model to Combine Suggestions System and Delphi Method 2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Momeninezhad

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Background & aim: Authority delegation means to transmit part of organization`s manager and leader`s special authorities and executive duties, regardless its root to subordinates and heads of units and related offices to speed up implementing affairs and organizational purposes quickly and on time. The purpose of this study was to inspect authority delegation in health centers of Boyerahmad district through using model to combine suggestions (to identify process and Delphi method (expert`s opinions . Methods: This cross-sectional study was implemented in two stages at first stage, research community was authorities of Boyerahmad health centers (58 persons, their suggestions about requested processes to delegate were gathered by total count through open questionnaires and in second stage, which was Delphi, suggestions gathered from previous stage judged by 30 experts. Data of both stages analyzed by help of Chi-square, correlation coefficient tests. Results: Findings showed that 73.85% of suggestions were able to be delegated, based on expert`s opinion. 40% of suggestions were in domain of official, 36.92% financial and 23.08% hygienic. 88% less than 6 years management background. 20.69% had no academic studies and only 27% were general physicians. Conclusion: By participation of environmental management levels, several processes may be specified and identify cases which are possible to delegate them executively using Delphi (expert`s opinion and this model can be used as a trust worthy method to delegate authority for decentralization. Key words: Participation Management, Health centers, Authority delegation

  7. K3 projective models in scrolls

    CERN Document Server

    Johnsen, Trygve

    2004-01-01

    The exposition studies projective models of K3 surfaces whose hyperplane sections are non-Clifford general curves. These models are contained in rational normal scrolls. The exposition supplements standard descriptions of models of general K3 surfaces in projective spaces of low dimension, and leads to a classification of K3 surfaces in projective spaces of dimension at most 10. The authors bring further the ideas in Saint-Donat's classical article from 1974, lifting results from canonical curves to K3 surfaces and incorporating much of the Brill-Noether theory of curves and theory of syzygies developed in the mean time.

  8. A Model of Project and Organisational Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny Leonard

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The strategic, transformational nature of many information systems projects is now widely understood. Large-scale implementations of systems are known to require significant management of organisational change in order to be successful. Moreover, projects are rarely executed in isolation – most organisations have a large programme of projects being implemented at any one time. However, project and value management methodologies provide ad hoc definitions of the relationship between a project and its environment. This limits the ability of an organisation to manage the larger dynamics between projects and organisations, over time, and between projects. The contribution of this paper, therefore, is to use literature on organisational theory to provide a more systematic understanding of this area. The organisational facilitators required to obtain value from a project are categorised, and the processes required to develop those facilitators are defined. This formalisation facilitates generalisation between projects and highlights any time and path dependencies required in developing organisational facilitators. The model therefore has the potential to contribute to the development of IS project management theory within dynamic organisational contexts. Six cases illustrate how this model could be used.

  9. Computational modelling suggests good, bad and ugly roles of glycosaminoglycans in arterial wall mechanics and mechanobiology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roccabianca, S.; Bellini, C.; Humphrey, J. D.

    2014-01-01

    The medial layer of large arteries contains aggregates of the glycosaminoglycan hyaluronan and the proteoglycan versican. It is increasingly thought that these aggregates play important mechanical and mechanobiological roles despite constituting only a small fraction of the normal arterial wall. In this paper, we offer a new hypothesis that normal aggregates of hyaluronan and versican pressurize the intralamellar spaces, and thereby put into tension the radial elastic fibres that connect the smooth muscle cells to the elastic laminae, which would facilitate mechanosensing. This hypothesis is supported by novel computational simulations using two complementary models, a mechanistically based finite-element mixture model and a phenomenologically motivated continuum hyperelastic model. That is, the simulations suggest that normal aggregates of glycosaminoglycans/proteoglycans within the arterial media may play equally important roles in supporting (i.e. a structural role) and sensing (i.e. an instructional role) mechanical loads. Additional simulations suggest further, however, that abnormal increases in these aggregates, either distributed or localized, may over-pressurize the intralamellar units. We submit that these situations could lead to compromised mechanosensing, anoikis and/or reduced structural integrity, each of which represent fundamental aspects of arterial pathologies seen, for example, in hypertension, ageing and thoracic aortic aneurysms and dissections. PMID:24920112

  10. Base Flow Model Validation Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The innovation is the systematic "building-block" validation of CFD/turbulence models employing a GUI driven CFD code (RPFM) and existing as well as new data sets to...

  11. A proposed model for construction project management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Keywords: Communication skills and leadership model, construction project management, leadership, South African .... If the recipients do not read it, it will not affect the project. These methods include intranet sites, ..... emotional intelligence or interpersonal skills and an understanding of crosscultural differences needed to ...

  12. Causal Models for Safety Assurance Technologies Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Fulfillment of NASA's System-Wide Safety and Assurance Technology (SSAT) project at NASA requires leveraging vast amounts of data into actionable knowledge. Models...

  13. Atmospheric CO2 observations and models suggest strong carbon uptake by forests in New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinkamp, Kay; Mikaloff Fletcher, Sara E.; Brailsford, Gordon; Smale, Dan; Moore, Stuart; Keller, Elizabeth D.; Baisden, W. Troy; Mukai, Hitoshi; Stephens, Britton B.

    2017-01-01

    A regional atmospheric inversion method has been developed to determine the spatial and temporal distribution of CO2 sinks and sources across New Zealand for 2011-2013. This approach infers net air-sea and air-land CO2 fluxes from measurement records, using back-trajectory simulations from the Numerical Atmospheric dispersion Modelling Environment (NAME) Lagrangian dispersion model, driven by meteorology from the New Zealand Limited Area Model (NZLAM) weather prediction model. The inversion uses in situ measurements from two fixed sites, Baring Head on the southern tip of New Zealand's North Island (41.408° S, 174.871° E) and Lauder from the central South Island (45.038° S, 169.684° E), and ship board data from monthly cruises between Japan, New Zealand, and Australia. A range of scenarios is used to assess the sensitivity of the inversion method to underlying assumptions and to ensure robustness of the results. The results indicate a strong seasonal cycle in terrestrial land fluxes from the South Island of New Zealand, especially in western regions covered by indigenous forest, suggesting higher photosynthetic and respiratory activity than is evident in the current a priori land process model. On the annual scale, the terrestrial biosphere in New Zealand is estimated to be a net CO2 sink, removing 98 (±37) Tg CO2 yr-1 from the atmosphere on average during 2011-2013. This sink is much larger than the reported 27 Tg CO2 yr-1 from the national inventory for the same time period. The difference can be partially reconciled when factors related to forest and agricultural management and exports, fossil fuel emission estimates, hydrologic fluxes, and soil carbon change are considered, but some differences are likely to remain. Baseline uncertainty, model transport uncertainty, and limited sensitivity to the northern half of the North Island are the main contributors to flux uncertainty.

  14. The Regional Discharge Model development project

    OpenAIRE

    Mäenpää, Tiina; Koivunen, Marita; Lukka, Heli; Wanne, Olli

    2010-01-01

    Purpose/Theory The goal of the Regional Discharge Model (RDM) project was to develop discharge models, avoid unnecessary hospitalization, and improves the transfer of the patient to the right follow-on treatment or care, utilizing the public and private sector, research and training as well as developing technologies like the Regional Health Information Systems (RHIS) in the Satakunta Hospital District area. The RDM project is part of the ‘Whole life at home’ initiative funded and administere...

  15. Custom map projections for regional groundwater models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuniansky, Eve L.

    2017-01-01

    For regional groundwater flow models (areas greater than 100,000 km2), improper choice of map projection parameters can result in model error for boundary conditions dependent on area (recharge or evapotranspiration simulated by application of a rate using cell area from model discretization) and length (rivers simulated with head-dependent flux boundary). Smaller model areas can use local map coordinates, such as State Plane (United States) or Universal Transverse Mercator (correct zone) without introducing large errors. Map projections vary in order to preserve one or more of the following properties: area, shape, distance (length), or direction. Numerous map projections are developed for different purposes as all four properties cannot be preserved simultaneously. Preservation of area and length are most critical for groundwater models. The Albers equal-area conic projection with custom standard parallels, selected by dividing the length north to south by 6 and selecting standard parallels 1/6th above or below the southern and northern extent, preserves both area and length for continental areas in mid latitudes oriented east-west. Custom map projection parameters can also minimize area and length error in non-ideal projections. Additionally, one must also use consistent vertical and horizontal datums for all geographic data. The generalized polygon for the Floridan aquifer system study area (306,247.59 km2) is used to provide quantitative examples of the effect of map projections on length and area with different projections and parameter choices. Use of improper map projection is one model construction problem easily avoided.

  16. Modelling psychiatric and cultural possession phenomena with suggestion and fMRI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deeley, Quinton; Oakley, David A; Walsh, Eamonn; Bell, Vaughan; Mehta, Mitul A; Halligan, Peter W

    2014-04-01

    Involuntary movements occur in a variety of neuropsychiatric disorders and culturally influenced dissociative states (e.g., delusions of alien control and attributions of spirit possession). However, the underlying brain processes are poorly understood. We combined suggestion and fMRI in 15 highly hypnotically susceptible volunteers to investigate changes in brain activity accompanying different experiences of loss of self-control of movement. Suggestions of external personal control and internal personal control over involuntary movements modelled delusions of control and spirit possession respectively. A suggestion of impersonal control by a malfunctioning machine modelled technical delusions of control, where involuntary movements are attributed to the influence of machines. We found that (i) brain activity and/or connectivity significantly varied with different experiences and attributions of loss of agency; (ii) compared to the impersonal control condition, both external and internal personal alien control were associated with increased connectivity between primary motor cortex (M1) and brain regions involved in attribution of mental states and representing the self in relation to others; (iii) compared to both personal alien control conditions, impersonal control of movement was associated with increased activity in brain regions involved in error detection and object imagery; (iv) there were no significant differences in brain activity, and minor differences in M1 connectivity, between the external and internal personal alien control conditions. Brain networks supporting error detection and object imagery, together with representation of self and others, are differentially recruited to support experiences of impersonal and personal control of involuntary movements. However, similar brain systems underpin attributions and experiences of external and internal alien control of movement. Loss of self-agency for movement can therefore accompany different kinds of

  17. Low modeled ozone production suggests underestimation of precursor emissions (especially NOx in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Oikonomakis

    2018-02-01

    (where both NOx and VOC emissions are increased leads to a better model performance. Although increasing only the traffic NOx emissions by a factor of 4 gave very similar results to the doubling of all NOx emissions, the first scenario is more consistent with the uncertainties reported by other studies than the latter, suggesting that high uncertainties in NOx emissions might originate mainly from the road-transport sector rather than from other sectors. The impact of meteorology was examined with three sensitivity tests: (i increased surface temperature by 4 °C, (ii reduced wind speed by 50 % and (iii doubled wind speed. The first two scenarios led to a consistent increase in all surface ozone mixing ratios, thus improving the model performance for the high ozone values but significantly degrading it for the low ozone values, while the third scenario had exactly the opposite effects. Overall, the modeled ozone is predicted to be more sensitive to its precursor emissions (especially traffic NOx and therefore their uncertainties, which seem to be responsible for the model underestimation of the observed high ozone mixing ratios and ozone production.

  18. Teaching mathematical modelling through project work

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blomhøj, Morten; Kjeldsen, Tinne Hoff

    2006-01-01

    The paper presents and analyses experiences from developing and running an in-service course in project work and mathematical modelling for mathematics teachers in the Danish gymnasium, e.g. upper secondary level, grade 10-12. The course objective is to support the teachers to develop, try out...... in their own classes, evaluate and report a project based problem oriented course in mathematical modelling. The in-service course runs over one semester and includes three seminars of 3, 1 and 2 days. Experiences show that the course objectives in general are fulfilled and that the course projects...

  19. POMP - Pervasive Object Model Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schougaard, Kari Rye; Schultz, Ulrik Pagh

    The focus on mobile devices is continuously increasing, and improved device connectivity enables the construction of pervasive computing systems composed of heterogeneous collections of devices. Users who employ different devices throughout their daily activities naturally expect their applications...... computing environment. This system, named POM (Pervasive Object Model), supports applications split into coarse-grained, strongly mobile units that communicate using method invocations through proxies. We are currently investigating efficient execution of mobile applications, scalability to suit...

  20. Low modeled ozone production suggests underestimation of precursor emissions (especially NOx) in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oikonomakis, Emmanouil; Aksoyoglu, Sebnem; Ciarelli, Giancarlo; Baltensperger, Urs; Prévôt, André Stephan Henry

    2018-02-01

    the latter, suggesting that high uncertainties in NOx emissions might originate mainly from the road-transport sector rather than from other sectors. The impact of meteorology was examined with three sensitivity tests: (i) increased surface temperature by 4 °C, (ii) reduced wind speed by 50 % and (iii) doubled wind speed. The first two scenarios led to a consistent increase in all surface ozone mixing ratios, thus improving the model performance for the high ozone values but significantly degrading it for the low ozone values, while the third scenario had exactly the opposite effects. Overall, the modeled ozone is predicted to be more sensitive to its precursor emissions (especially traffic NOx) and therefore their uncertainties, which seem to be responsible for the model underestimation of the observed high ozone mixing ratios and ozone production.

  1. Mentoring in Gifted Student’s Education and a Model Suggestion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lutfu Cakir

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to examine the mentoring process in the education of gifted students and to develop a model applicable for the Turkish Educational System. The data of the study were collected through a literature review and focus group interviews. The study was conducted on one public and one private education institution for gifted students in Istanbul, Turkey. Purposeful sampling method was used in this study. A total of nine group interviews were carried out on 43 shareholders, the administrators, teachers, parents and student sub-groups, of the institutions in the sample group. The interviews were recorded and the recordings transcribed and analyzed through content analysis. As a result of the study, the establishment of a mentoring model was suggested under the Ministry of National Education, General Directorate of Special Education Guidance and Counseling Services, Department of Special Talents Development and issues such as model development, mentor and service area selection, matching, system operation and feedback were examined in detail.

  2. Mathematical modeling of sustainable synaptogenesis by repetitive stimuli suggests signaling mechanisms in vivo.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiromu Takizawa

    Full Text Available The mechanisms of long-term synaptic maintenance are a key component to understanding the mechanism of long-term memory. From biological experiments, a hypothesis arose that repetitive stimuli with appropriate intervals are essential to maintain new synapses for periods of longer than a few days. We successfully reproduce the time-course of relative numbers of synapses with our mathematical model in the same conditions as biological experiments, which used Adenosine-3', 5'-cyclic monophosphorothioate, Sp-isomer (Sp-cAMPS as external stimuli. We also reproduce synaptic maintenance responsiveness to intervals of Sp-cAMPS treatment accompanied by PKA activation. The model suggests a possible mechanism of sustainable synaptogenesis which consists of two steps. First, the signal transduction from an external stimulus triggers the synthesis of a new signaling protein. Second, the new signaling protein is required for the next signal transduction with the same stimuli. As a result, the network component is modified from the first network, and a different signal is transferred which triggers the synthesis of another new signaling molecule. We refer to this hypothetical mechanism as network succession. We build our model on the basis of two hypotheses: (1 a multi-step network succession induces downregulation of SSH and COFILIN gene expression, which triggers the production of stable F-actin; (2 the formation of a complex of stable F-actin with Drebrin at PSD is the critical mechanism to achieve long-term synaptic maintenance. Our simulation shows that a three-step network succession is sufficient to reproduce sustainable synapses for a period longer than 14 days. When we change the network structure to a single step network, the model fails to follow the exact condition of repetitive signals to reproduce a sufficient number of synapses. Another advantage of the three-step network succession is that this system indicates a greater tolerance of parameter

  3. Coalescent Modelling Suggests Recent Secondary-Contact of Cryptic Penguin Species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grosser, Stefanie; Burridge, Christopher P; Peucker, Amanda J; Waters, Jonathan M

    2015-01-01

    Molecular genetic analyses present powerful tools for elucidating demographic and biogeographic histories of taxa. Here we present genetic evidence showing a dynamic history for two cryptic lineages within Eudyptula, the world's smallest penguin. Specifically, we use a suite of genetic markers to reveal that two congeneric taxa ('Australia' and 'New Zealand') co-occur in southern New Zealand, with only low levels of hybridization. Coalescent modelling suggests that the Australian little penguin only recently expanded into southern New Zealand. Analyses conducted under time-dependent molecular evolutionary rates lend support to the hypothesis of recent anthropogenic turnover, consistent with shifts detected in several other New Zealand coastal vertebrate taxa. This apparent turnover event highlights the dynamic nature of the region's coastal ecosystem.

  4. Microarray and bioinformatic analyses suggest models for carbon metabolism in the autotroph Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    C. Appia-ayme; R. Quatrini; Y. Denis; F. Denizot; S. Silver; F. Roberto; F. Veloso; J. Valdes; J. P. Cardenas; M. Esparza; O. Orellana; E. Jedlicki; V. Bonnefoy; D. Holmes

    2006-09-01

    Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans is a chemolithoautotrophic bacterium that uses iron or sulfur as an energy and electron source. Bioinformatic analysis was used to identify putative genes and potential metabolic pathways involved in CO2 fixation, 2P-glycolate detoxification, carboxysome formation and glycogen utilization in At. ferrooxidans. Microarray transcript profiling was carried out to compare the relative expression of the predicted genes of these pathways when the microorganism was grown in the presence of iron versus sulfur. Several gene expression patterns were confirmed by real-time PCR. Genes for each of the above predicted pathways were found to be organized into discrete clusters. Clusters exhibited differential gene expression depending on the presence of iron or sulfur in the medium. Concordance of gene expression within each cluster, suggested that they are operons Most notably, clusters of genes predicted to be involved in CO2 fixation, carboxysome formation, 2P-glycolate detoxification and glycogen biosynthesis were up-regulated in sulfur medium, whereas genes involved in glycogen utilization were preferentially expressed in iron medium. These results can be explained in terms of models of gene regulation that suggest how A. ferrooxidans can adjust its central carbon management to respond to changing environmental conditions.

  5. A cervid vocal fold model suggests greater glottal efficiency in calling at high frequencies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingo R Titze

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Male Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni produce loud and high fundamental frequency bugles during the mating season, in contrast to the male European Red Deer (Cervus elaphus scoticus who produces loud and low fundamental frequency roaring calls. A critical step in understanding vocal communication is to relate sound complexity to anatomy and physiology in a causal manner. Experimentation at the sound source, often difficult in vivo in mammals, is simulated here by a finite element model of the larynx and a wave propagation model of the vocal tract, both based on the morphology and biomechanics of the elk. The model can produce a wide range of fundamental frequencies. Low fundamental frequencies require low vocal fold strain, but large lung pressure and large glottal flow if sound intensity level is to exceed 70 dB at 10 m distance. A high-frequency bugle requires both large muscular effort (to strain the vocal ligament and high lung pressure (to overcome phonation threshold pressure, but at least 10 dB more intensity level can be achieved. Glottal efficiency, the ration of radiated sound power to aerodynamic power at the glottis, is higher in elk, suggesting an advantage of high-pitched signaling. This advantage is based on two aspects; first, the lower airflow required for aerodynamic power and, second, an acoustic radiation advantage at higher frequencies. Both signal types are used by the respective males during the mating season and probably serve as honest signals. The two signal types relate differently to physical qualities of the sender. The low-frequency sound (Red Deer call relates to overall body size via a strong relationship between acoustic parameters and the size of vocal organs and body size. The high-frequency bugle may signal muscular strength and endurance, via a 'vocalizing at the edge' mechanism, for which efficiency is critical.

  6. Model suggests potential for Porites coral population recovery after removal of anthropogenic disturbance (Luhuitou, Hainan, South China Sea)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Meixia; Riegl, Bernhard; Yu, Kefu; Shi, Qi; Zhang, Qiaomin; Liu, Guohui; Yang, Hongqiang; Yan, Hongqiang

    2016-09-01

    Population models are important for resource management and can inform about potential trajectories useful for planning purposes, even with incomplete monitoring data. From size frequency data on Luhuitou fringing reef, Hainan, South China Sea, a matrix population model of massive corals (Porites lutea) was developed and trajectories over 100 years under no disturbance and random disturbances were projected. The model reflects a largely open population of Porites lutea, with low local recruitment and preponderance of imported recruitment. Under no further disturbance, the population of Porites lutea will grow and its size structure will change from predominance of small size classes to large size classes. Therewith, total Porites cover will increase. Even under random disturbances every 10 to 20 years, the Porites population could remain viable, albeit at lower space cover. The models suggest recovery at Luhuitou following the removal of chronic anthropogenic disturbance. Extending the area of coral reef reserves to protect the open coral community and the path of connectivity is advisable and imperative for the conservation of Hainan’s coral reefs.

  7. NET.EXCEL - a European thematic network for suggesting and prioritising future joint R and D projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Svemar, C.; Brewitz, W.

    2004-01-01

    The NET.EXCEL project concerns the forming of a network of European end users for analysing the present status and future needs in research, technical development and demonstration (RTD) for the disposal of highly radioactive waste in the three classical rock media: salt, clay/clay sediments and crystalline rock. The aim is to generate values additional to that gained by the individual participants: Svensk Kaernbraenslehantering AB (Sweden), Posiva Oy (Finland), Empresa Nacional de Residuos Radioactivos SA (Spain), Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit mbH (Germany), Agence nationale pour la gestion des dechets radioactifs (France), Nationale Genossenschaft fuer die Lagerung radioaktiver Abfaelle (Swizerland), Organisme National des Dechets Radioactifs et des Matieres Fissiles Enrichies (Belgium) and United Kingdom Nirex Limited (UK). The practical way to carry out the needed RTD-activities and the principles behind the process to establish priorities for the necessary RTD-work is quite similar among the participants. Common ground has been analysed for the role/responsibilities of the participating organisations, for the establishment of priorities for the RTD work and for the modus operandi of the organisations to carry out the RTD. The issue of prioritising the potential RTD activities and the factors taken into account by the participating organisations have been summarised and analysed with respect to the common denominator in the project. (orig.)

  8. NET.EXCEL - a European thematic network for suggesting and prioritising future joint R and D projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Svemar, C. [Svensk Kaernbraenslehantering AB (Sweden); Brewitz, W. [Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) mbH (Germany)

    2004-07-01

    The NET.EXCEL project concerns the forming of a network of European end users for analysing the present status and future needs in research, technical development and demonstration (RTD) for the disposal of highly radioactive waste in the three classical rock media: salt, clay/clay sediments and crystalline rock. The aim is to generate values additional to that gained by the individual participants: Svensk Kaernbraenslehantering AB (Sweden), Posiva Oy (Finland), Empresa Nacional de Residuos Radioactivos SA (Spain), Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit mbH (Germany), Agence nationale pour la gestion des dechets radioactifs (France), Nationale Genossenschaft fuer die Lagerung radioaktiver Abfaelle (Swizerland), Organisme National des Dechets Radioactifs et des Matieres Fissiles Enrichies (Belgium) and United Kingdom Nirex Limited (UK). The practical way to carry out the needed RTD-activities and the principles behind the process to establish priorities for the necessary RTD-work is quite similar among the participants. Common ground has been analysed for the role/responsibilities of the participating organisations, for the establishment of priorities for the RTD work and for the modus operandi of the organisations to carry out the RTD. The issue of prioritising the potential RTD activities and the factors taken into account by the participating organisations have been summarised and analysed with respect to the common denominator in the project. (orig.)

  9. Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling and Projection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qian, Yun; Jackson, Charles; Giorgi, Filippo; Booth, Ben; Duan, Qingyun; Forest, Chris; Higdon, Dave; Hou, Z. Jason; Huerta, Gabriel

    2016-05-01

    The projection of future climate is one of the most complex problems undertaken by the scientific community. Although scientists have been striving to better understand the physical basis of the climate system and to improve climate models, the overall uncertainty in projections of future climate has not been significantly reduced (e.g., from the IPCC AR4 to AR5). With the rapid increase of complexity in Earth system models, reducing uncertainties in climate projections becomes extremely challenging. Since uncertainties always exist in climate models, interpreting the strengths and limitations of future climate projections is key to evaluating risks, and climate change information for use in Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation (VIA) studies should be provided with both well-characterized and well-quantified uncertainty. The workshop aimed at providing participants, many of them from developing countries, information on strategies to quantify the uncertainty in climate model projections and assess the reliability of climate change information for decision-making. The program included a mixture of lectures on fundamental concepts in Bayesian inference and sampling, applications, and hands-on computer laboratory exercises employing software packages for Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, and global sensitivity analyses. The lectures covered a range of scientific issues underlying the evaluation of uncertainties in climate projections, such as the effects of uncertain initial and boundary conditions, uncertain physics, and limitations of observational records. Progress in quantitatively estimating uncertainties in hydrologic, land surface, and atmospheric models at both regional and global scales was also reviewed. The application of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) concepts to coupled climate system models is still in its infancy. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) multi-model ensemble currently represents the primary data for

  10. World Energy Projection System model documentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hutzler, M.J.; Anderson, A.T.

    1997-09-01

    The World Energy Projection System (WEPS) was developed by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting within the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the independent statistical and analytical agency of the US Department of Energy. WEPS is an integrated set of personal computer based spreadsheets containing data compilations, assumption specifications, descriptive analysis procedures, and projection models. The WEPS accounting framework incorporates projections from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product GDP), and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by natural gas, coal, and renewable energy sources (hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, wind, biomass, and other renewable resources). Projections produced by WEPS are published in the annual report, International Energy Outlook. This report documents the structure and procedures incorporated in the 1998 version of the WEPS model. It has been written to provide an overview of the structure of the system and technical details about the operation of each component of the model for persons who wish to know how WEPS projections are produced by EIA

  11. Rate control management of atrial fibrillation: may a mathematical model suggest an ideal heart rate?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matteo Anselmino

    Full Text Available Despite the routine prescription of rate control therapy for atrial fibrillation (AF, clinical evidence demonstrating a heart rate target is lacking. Aim of the present study was to run a mathematical model simulating AF episodes with a different heart rate (HR to predict hemodynamic parameters for each situation.The lumped model, representing the pumping heart together with systemic and pulmonary circuits, was run to simulate AF with HR of 50, 70, 90, 110 and 130 bpm, respectively.Left ventricular pressure increased by 57%, from 33.92±37.56 mmHg to 53.15±47.56 mmHg, and mean systemic arterial pressure increased by 27%, from 82.66±14.04 mmHg to 105.3±7.6 mmHg, at the 50 and 130 bpm simulations, respectively. Stroke volume (from 77.45±8.50 to 39.09±8.08 mL, ejection fraction (from 61.10±4.40 to 39.32±5.42% and stroke work (SW, from 0.88±0.04 to 0.58±0.09 J decreased by 50, 36 and 34%, at the 50 and 130 bpm simulations, respectively. In addition, oxygen consumption indexes (rate pressure product - RPP, tension time index per minute - TTI/min, and pressure volume area per minute - PVA/min increased from the 50 to the 130 bpm simulation, respectively, by 186% (from 5598±1939 to 15995±3219 mmHg/min, 56% (from 2094±265 to 3257±301 mmHg s/min and 102% (from 57.99±17.90 to 117.4±26.0 J/min. In fact, left ventricular efficiency (SW/PVA decreased from 80.91±2.91% at 50 bpm to 66.43±3.72% at the 130 bpm HR simulation.Awaiting compulsory direct clinical evidences, the present mathematical model suggests that lower HRs during permanent AF relates to improved hemodynamic parameters, cardiac efficiency, and lower oxygen consumption.

  12. Rate control management of atrial fibrillation: may a mathematical model suggest an ideal heart rate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anselmino, Matteo; Scarsoglio, Stefania; Camporeale, Carlo; Saglietto, Andrea; Gaita, Fiorenzo; Ridolfi, Luca

    2015-01-01

    Despite the routine prescription of rate control therapy for atrial fibrillation (AF), clinical evidence demonstrating a heart rate target is lacking. Aim of the present study was to run a mathematical model simulating AF episodes with a different heart rate (HR) to predict hemodynamic parameters for each situation. The lumped model, representing the pumping heart together with systemic and pulmonary circuits, was run to simulate AF with HR of 50, 70, 90, 110 and 130 bpm, respectively. Left ventricular pressure increased by 57%, from 33.92±37.56 mmHg to 53.15±47.56 mmHg, and mean systemic arterial pressure increased by 27%, from 82.66±14.04 mmHg to 105.3±7.6 mmHg, at the 50 and 130 bpm simulations, respectively. Stroke volume (from 77.45±8.50 to 39.09±8.08 mL), ejection fraction (from 61.10±4.40 to 39.32±5.42%) and stroke work (SW, from 0.88±0.04 to 0.58±0.09 J) decreased by 50, 36 and 34%, at the 50 and 130 bpm simulations, respectively. In addition, oxygen consumption indexes (rate pressure product - RPP, tension time index per minute - TTI/min, and pressure volume area per minute - PVA/min) increased from the 50 to the 130 bpm simulation, respectively, by 186% (from 5598±1939 to 15995±3219 mmHg/min), 56% (from 2094±265 to 3257±301 mmHg s/min) and 102% (from 57.99±17.90 to 117.4±26.0 J/min). In fact, left ventricular efficiency (SW/PVA) decreased from 80.91±2.91% at 50 bpm to 66.43±3.72% at the 130 bpm HR simulation. Awaiting compulsory direct clinical evidences, the present mathematical model suggests that lower HRs during permanent AF relates to improved hemodynamic parameters, cardiac efficiency, and lower oxygen consumption.

  13. Beyond theory : Towards a probabilistic causation model to support project governance in infrastructure projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chivatá Cárdenas, Ibsen; Voordijk, Johannes T.; Dewulf, Geert

    2017-01-01

    A new project governance model for infrastructure projects is described in this paper. This model contains causal mechanisms that relate a number of project governance variables to project performance. Our proposed model includes relevant variables for measuring project governance in construction

  14. Education and training in radioecology during the EU-COMET project - successes and suggestions for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradshaw, Clare; Skipperud, Lindis; Beresford, N; Barnett, C L; Vidal, Miquel

    2017-11-21

    The 2014 Strategic Research Agenda (SRA) for Radioecology identified that the key challenge in education and training (E&T) was "to maintain and develop a skilled workforce in Europe and world-wide, through university candidates and professionals trained within radioecology" since "scientific research in radioecology and application of that knowledge… requires scientists and workers with adequate competence and appropriate skills." Radioecology is a multidisciplinary science and E&T is needed by both students and professionals within research, industry and radiation protection. In order to address these needs, COMET has developed an E&T web platform and arranged a number of field courses, training courses, PhD and MSc courses, refresher courses and workshops, drawing on the COMET consortium to assemble relevant experts. In addition, COMET has been engaged in discussions with stakeholders for more long-term solutions to maintain the sustainability of radioecology E&T after the end of the project. Despite much progress in some areas, many of the challenges outlined in the 2014 SRA remain, mainly due to the lack of sustainable dedicated funding. Future plans within the ALLIANCE radioecology platform and CONCERT-European Joint Programme for the Integration of Radiation Protection Research must urgently address this lack of sustainability if radioecological competence is to be maintained in Europe. © 2017 IOP Publishing Ltd.

  15. Variably hungry caterpillars: predictive models and foliar chemistry suggest how to eat a rainforest

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Segar, Simon Tristram; Volf, Martin; Isua, B.; Sisol, M.; Redmond, Conor; Rosati, M. E.; Gewa, B.; Molem, K.; Dahl, Chris; Holloway, J. D.; Basset, Yves; Miller, S. E.; Weiblen, G. D.; Salminen, J.-P.; Novotný, Vojtěch

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 284, č. 1866 (2017), č. článku 20171803. ISSN 0962-8452 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA17-23862S; GA ČR GA15-24571S EU Projects: European Commission(XE) 669609 - Diversity6continents Grant - others:European Social Fund(CZ) CZ.1.07/2.3.00/30.0006 Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : biodiversity * food webs * Geometridae Subject RIV: EH - Ecology , Behaviour OBOR OECD: Ecology Impact factor: 4.940, year: 2016 http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/royprsb/284/1866/20171803.full.pdf

  16. PROJECT ACTIVITY ANALYSIS WITHOUT THE NETWORK MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Munapo

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This paper presents a new procedure for analysing and managing activity sequences in projects. The new procedure determines critical activities, critical path, start times, free floats, crash limits, and other useful information without the use of the network model. Even though network models have been successfully used in project management so far, there are weaknesses associated with the use. A network is not easy to generate, and dummies that are usually associated with it make the network diagram complex – and dummy activities have no meaning in the original project management problem. The network model for projects can be avoided while still obtaining all the useful information that is required for project management. What are required are the activities, their accurate durations, and their predecessors.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die navorsing beskryf ’n nuwerwetse metode vir die ontleding en bestuur van die sekwensiële aktiwiteite van projekte. Die voorgestelde metode bepaal kritiese aktiwiteite, die kritieke pad, aanvangstye, speling, verhasing, en ander groothede sonder die gebruik van ’n netwerkmodel. Die metode funksioneer bevredigend in die praktyk, en omseil die administratiewe rompslomp van die tradisionele netwerkmodelle.

  17. Genomic survey, gene expression analysis and structural modeling suggest diverse roles of DNA methyltransferases in legumes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rohini Garg

    Full Text Available DNA methylation plays a crucial role in development through inheritable gene silencing. Plants possess three types of DNA methyltransferases (MTases, namely Methyltransferase (MET, Chromomethylase (CMT and Domains Rearranged Methyltransferase (DRM, which maintain methylation at CG, CHG and CHH sites. DNA MTases have not been studied in legumes so far. Here, we report the identification and analysis of putative DNA MTases in five legumes, including chickpea, soybean, pigeonpea, Medicago and Lotus. MTases in legumes could be classified in known MET, CMT, DRM and DNA nucleotide methyltransferases (DNMT2 subfamilies based on their domain organization. First three MTases represent DNA MTases, whereas DNMT2 represents a transfer RNA (tRNA MTase. Structural comparison of all the MTases in plants with known MTases in mammalian and plant systems have been reported to assign structural features in context of biological functions of these proteins. The structure analysis clearly specified regions crucial for protein-protein interactions and regions important for nucleosome binding in various domains of CMT and MET proteins. In addition, structural model of DRM suggested that circular permutation of motifs does not have any effect on overall structure of DNA methyltransferase domain. These results provide valuable insights into role of various domains in molecular recognition and should facilitate mechanistic understanding of their function in mediating specific methylation patterns. Further, the comprehensive gene expression analyses of MTases in legumes provided evidence of their role in various developmental processes throughout the plant life cycle and response to various abiotic stresses. Overall, our study will be very helpful in establishing the specific functions of DNA MTases in legumes.

  18. Testing Software Development Project Productivity Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipkin, Ilya

    Software development is an increasingly influential factor in today's business environment, and a major issue affecting software development is how an organization estimates projects. If the organization underestimates cost, schedule, and quality requirements, the end results will not meet customer needs. On the other hand, if the organization overestimates these criteria, resources that could have been used more profitably will be wasted. There is no accurate model or measure available that can guide an organization in a quest for software development, with existing estimation models often underestimating software development efforts as much as 500 to 600 percent. To address this issue, existing models usually are calibrated using local data with a small sample size, with resulting estimates not offering improved cost analysis. This study presents a conceptual model for accurately estimating software development, based on an extensive literature review and theoretical analysis based on Sociotechnical Systems (STS) theory. The conceptual model serves as a solution to bridge organizational and technological factors and is validated using an empirical dataset provided by the DoD. Practical implications of this study allow for practitioners to concentrate on specific constructs of interest that provide the best value for the least amount of time. This study outlines key contributing constructs that are unique for Software Size E-SLOC, Man-hours Spent, and Quality of the Product, those constructs having the largest contribution to project productivity. This study discusses customer characteristics and provides a framework for a simplified project analysis for source selection evaluation and audit task reviews for the customers and suppliers. Theoretical contributions of this study provide an initial theory-based hypothesized project productivity model that can be used as a generic overall model across several application domains such as IT, Command and Control

  19. Mathematical Modeling Projects: Success for All Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shelton, Therese

    2018-01-01

    Mathematical modeling allows flexibility for a project-based experience. We share details of our regular capstone course, successful for virtually 100% of our math majors for almost two decades. Our research-like approach in this course accommodates a variety of student backgrounds and interests, and has produced some award-winning student…

  20. Stabilizing a Bicycle: A Modeling Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pennings, Timothy J.; Williams, Blair R.

    2010-01-01

    This article is a project that takes students through the process of forming a mathematical model of bicycle dynamics. Beginning with basic ideas from Newtonian mechanics (forces and torques), students use techniques from calculus and differential equations to develop the equations of rotational motion for a bicycle-rider system as it tips from…

  1. Low modeled ozone production suggests underestimation of precursor emissions (especially NOx) in Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Oikonomakis, Emmanouil; Aksoyoglu, Sebnem; Ciarelli, Giancarlo; Baltensperger, Urs; Prévôt, André Stephan Henry

    2018-01-01

    High surface ozone concentrations, which usually occur when photochemical ozone production takes place, pose a great risk to human health and vegetation. Air quality models are often used by policy makers as tools for the development of ozone mitigation strategies. However, the modeled ozone production is often not or not enough evaluated in many ozone modeling studies. The focus of this work is to evaluate the modeled ozone production in Europe indirectly, with the use of t...

  2. Subglacial Hydrology Model Intercomparison Project (SHMIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werder, Mauro A.; de Fleurian, Basile; Creyts, Timothy T.; Damsgaard, Anders; Delaney, Ian; Dow, Christine F.; Gagliardini, Olivier; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Seguinot, Julien; Sommers, Aleah; Irarrazaval Bustos, Inigo; Downs, Jakob

    2017-04-01

    The SHMIP project is the first intercomparison project of subglacial drainage models (http://shmip.bitbucket.org). Its synthetic test suites and evaluation were designed such that any subglacial hydrology model producing effective pressure can participate. In contrast to ice deformation, the physical processes of subglacial hydrology (which in turn impacts basal sliding of glaciers) are poorly known. A further complication is that different glacial and geological settings can lead to different drainage physics. The aim of the project is therefore to qualitatively compare the outputs of the participating models for a wide range of water forcings and glacier geometries. This will allow to put existing studies, which use different drainage models, into context and will allow new studies to select the most suitable model for the problem at hand. We present the results from the just completed intercomparison exercise. Twelve models participated: eight 2D and four 1D models; nine include both an efficient and inefficient system, the other three one of the systems; all but two models use R-channels as efficient system, and/or a linked-cavity like inefficient system, one exception uses porous layers with different characteristic for each of the systems, the other exception is based on canals. The main variable used for the comparison is effective pressure, as that is a direct proxy for basal sliding of glaciers. The models produce large differences in the effective pressure fields, in particular for higher water input scenarios. This shows that the selection of a subglacial drainage model will likely impact the conclusions of a study significantly.

  3. Downplaying model power in IT project work

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richter, Anne; Buhl, Henrik

    2004-01-01

    Executives and information technology specialists often manage IT projects in project teams. Integrative IT systems provide opportunities to manage and restructure work functions, but the process of change often causes serious problems in implementation and diffusion. A central issue...... possible to put issues such as team functions and quality of work on the agenda. Simultaneously, participation competencies seem to have been enhanced....... in the research, presented in this article, conducted in a Danish manufacturing company, is how an IT system could be configured to support shopfloor teamwork and enhance the quality of work. The approach is based on participatory design and the concept of "model power". This concept facilitates an understanding...

  4. Projected shell model description for nuclear isomers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, Y. [Department of Physics, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, Popular Republic (China)

    2008-12-15

    The study of nuclear isomer properties is a current research focus. To describe isomers, we present a method based on the Projected Shell Model. Two kinds of isomers, {kappa}-isomers and shape isomers, are discussed. For the {kappa}-isomer treatment, {kappa}-mixing is properly implemented in the model. It is found however that in order to describe the strong {kappa}-violation more efficiently, it may be necessary to further introduce triaxiality into the shell model basis. To treat shape isomers, a scheme is outlined which allows mixing those configurations belonging to different shapes. (Author)

  5. Mathematical modeling suggests that periodontitis behaves as a non-linear chaotic dynamical process

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Papantonopoulos, G.H.; Takahashi, K.; Bountis, T.; Loos, B.G.

    2013-01-01

    Background: This study aims to expand on a previously presented cellular automata model and further explore the non-linear dynamics of periodontitis. Additionally the authors investigated whether their mathematical model could predict the two known types of periodontitis, aggressive (AgP) and

  6. Toward an Integrative Model of Creativity and Personality: Theoretical Suggestions and Preliminary Empirical Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fü rst, Guillaume; Ghisletta, Paolo; Lubart, Todd

    2016-01-01

    The present work proposes an integrative model of creativity that includes personality traits and cognitive processes. This model hypothesizes that three high-order personality factors predict two main process factors, which in turn predict intensity and achievement of creative activities. The personality factors are: "Plasticity" (high…

  7. A Multi-Scale Energy Demand Model suggests sharing Market Risks with Intelligent Energy Cooperatives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Methenitis (Georgios); M. Kaisers (Michael); J.A. La Poutré (Han)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper, we propose a multi-scale model of energy demand that is consistent with observations at a macro scale, in our use-case standard load profiles for (residential) electric loads. We employ the model to study incentives to assume the risk of volatile market prices for

  8. The Substitution Augmentation Modification Redefinition (SAMR) Model: A Critical Review and Suggestions for Its Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Erica R.; Rosenberg, Joshua M.; Akcaoglu, Mete

    2016-01-01

    The Substitution, Augmentation, Modification, and Redefinition (SAMR) model is a four-level, taxonomy-based approach for selecting, using, and evaluating technology in K-12 settings (Puentedura 2006). Despite its increasing popularity among practitioners, the SAMR model is not currently represented in the extant literature. To focus the ongoing…

  9. SIMULATION MODELING OF IT PROJECTS BASED ON PETRI NETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Александр Михайлович ВОЗНЫЙ

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available An integrated simulation model of IT project based on a modified Petri net model that combines product and model of project tasks has been proposed. Substantive interpretation of the components of the simulation model has been presented, the process of simulation has been described. The conclusions about the integration of the product model and the model of works project were made.

  10. Partitioning uncertainty in streamflow projections under nonstationary model conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chawla, Ila; Mujumdar, P. P.

    2018-02-01

    Assessing the impacts of Land Use (LU) and climate change on future streamflow projections is necessary for efficient management of water resources. However, model projections are burdened with significant uncertainty arising from various sources. Most of the previous studies have considered climate models and scenarios as major sources of uncertainty, but uncertainties introduced by land use change and hydrologic model assumptions are rarely investigated. In this paper an attempt is made to segregate the contribution from (i) general circulation models (GCMs), (ii) emission scenarios, (iii) land use scenarios, (iv) stationarity assumption of the hydrologic model, and (v) internal variability of the processes, to overall uncertainty in streamflow projections using analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach. Generally, most of the impact assessment studies are carried out with unchanging hydrologic model parameters in future. It is, however, necessary to address the nonstationarity in model parameters with changing land use and climate. In this paper, a regression based methodology is presented to obtain the hydrologic model parameters with changing land use and climate scenarios in future. The Upper Ganga Basin (UGB) in India is used as a case study to demonstrate the methodology. The semi-distributed Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is set-up over the basin, under nonstationary conditions. Results indicate that model parameters vary with time, thereby invalidating the often-used assumption of model stationarity. The streamflow in UGB under the nonstationary model condition is found to reduce in future. The flows are also found to be sensitive to changes in land use. Segregation results suggest that model stationarity assumption and GCMs along with their interactions with emission scenarios, act as dominant sources of uncertainty. This paper provides a generalized framework for hydrologists to examine stationarity assumption of models before considering them

  11. Implementation of the model project: Ghanaian experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schandorf, C.; Darko, E.O.; Yeboah, J.; Asiamah, S.D.

    2003-01-01

    Upgrading of the legal infrastructure has been the most time consuming and frustrating part of the implementation of the Model project due to the unstable system of governance and rule of law coupled with the low priority given to legislation on technical areas such as safe applications of Nuclear Science and Technology in medicine, industry, research and teaching. Dwindling Governmental financial support militated against physical and human resource infrastructure development and operational effectiveness. The trend over the last five years has been to strengthen the revenue generation base of the Radiation Protection Institute through good management practices to ensure a cost effective use of the limited available resources for a self-reliant and sustainable radiation and waste safety programme. The Ghanaian experience regarding the positive and negative aspects of the implementation of the Model Project is highlighted. (author)

  12. Food for thought: Overconfidence in model projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, Keith; Neuheimer, Anna; Andersen, Ken Haste

    2013-01-01

    There is considerable public and political interest in the state of marine ecosystems and fisheries, but the reliability of some recent projections has been called into question. New information about declining fish stocks, loss of biodiversity, climate impacts, and management failure is frequently...... be reliable and uncertainties arising from models and data shortcomings must be presented fully and transparently. Scientific journals play an important role and should require more detailed analysis and presentation of uncertainties....

  13. Discrete Dynamical Modeling of Influenza Virus Infection Suggests Age-Dependent Differences in Immunity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keef, Ericka; Zhang, Li Ang; Swigon, David; Urbano, Alisa; Ermentrout, G Bard; Matuszewski, Michael; Toapanta, Franklin R; Ross, Ted M; Parker, Robert S; Clermont, Gilles

    2017-12-01

    Immunosenescence, an age-related decline in immune function, is a major contributor to morbidity and mortality in the elderly. Older hosts exhibit a delayed onset of immunity and prolonged inflammation after an infection, leading to excess damage and a greater likelihood of death. Our study applies a rule-based model to infer which components of the immune response are most changed in an aged host. Two groups of BALB/c mice (aged 12 to 16 weeks and 72 to 76 weeks) were infected with 2 inocula: a survivable dose of 50 PFU and a lethal dose of 500 PFU. Data were measured at 10 points over 19 days in the sublethal case and at 6 points over 7 days in the lethal case, after which all mice had died. Data varied primarily in the onset of immunity, particularly the inflammatory response, which led to a 2-day delay in the clearance of the virus from older hosts in the sublethal cohort. We developed a Boolean model to describe the interactions between the virus and 21 immune components, including cells, chemokines, and cytokines, of innate and adaptive immunity. The model identifies distinct sets of rules for each age group by using Boolean operators to describe the complex series of interactions that activate and deactivate immune components. Our model accurately simulates the immune responses of mice of both ages and with both inocula included in the data (95% accurate for younger mice and 94% accurate for older mice) and shows distinct rule choices for the innate immunity arm of the model between younger and aging mice in response to influenza A virus infection. IMPORTANCE Influenza virus infection causes high morbidity and mortality rates every year, especially in the elderly. The elderly tend to have a delayed onset of many immune responses as well as prolonged inflammatory responses, leading to an overall weakened response to infection. Many of the details of immune mechanisms that change with age are currently not well understood. We present a rule-based model of the

  14. A Latent Growth Model Suggests that Empathy of Medical Students Does Not Decline over Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Patrício; Magalhães, Eunice; Costa, Manuel João

    2013-01-01

    Empathy is a relevant attribute in the context of patient care. However, a decline in empathy throughout medical education has been reported in North-American medical schools, particularly, in the transition to clinical training. The present study aims to longitudinally model empathy during medical school at three time points: at the entrance,…

  15. Modelling soil organic carbon in Danish agricultural soils suggests low potential for future carbon sequestration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taghizadeh-Toosi, Arezoo; Olesen, Jørgen Eivind

    2016-01-01

    Soil organic carbon (SOC) is in active exchange with the atmosphere. The amount of organic carbon (OC) input into the soil and SOC turnover rate are important for predicting the carbon (C) sequestration potential of soils subject to changes in land-use and climate. The C-TOOL model was developed...

  16. DNA databanks and consent: a suggested policy option involving an authorization model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caulfield, Timothy; Upshur, Ross E G; Daar, Abdallah

    2003-01-03

    Genetic databases are becoming increasingly common as a means of determining the relationship between lifestyle, environmental exposures and genetic diseases. These databases rely on large numbers of research subjects contributing their genetic material to successfully explore the genetic basis of disease. However, as all possible research questions that can be posed of the data are unknown, an unresolved ethical issue is the status of informed consent for future research uses of genetic material. In this paper, we discuss the difficulties of an informed consent model for future ineffable uses of genetic data. We argue that variations on consent, such as presumed consent, blanket consent or constructed consent fail to meet the standards required by current informed consent doctrine and are distortions of the original concept. In this paper, we propose the concept of an authorization model whereby participants in genetic data banks are able to exercise a certain amount of control over future uses of genetic data. We argue this preserves the autonomy of individuals at the same time as allowing them to give permission and discretion to researchers for certain types of research. The authorization model represents a step forward in the debate about informed consent in genetic databases. The move towards an authorization model would require changes in the regulatory and legislative environments. Additionally, empirical support of the utility and acceptability of authorization is required.

  17. DNA databanks and consent: A suggested policy option involving an authorization model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daar Abdallah

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Genetic databases are becoming increasingly common as a means of determining the relationship between lifestyle, environmental exposures and genetic diseases. These databases rely on large numbers of research subjects contributing their genetic material to successfully explore the genetic basis of disease. However, as all possible research questions that can be posed of the data are unknown, an unresolved ethical issue is the status of informed consent for future research uses of genetic material. Discussion In this paper, we discuss the difficulties of an informed consent model for future ineffable uses of genetic data. We argue that variations on consent, such as presumed consent, blanket consent or constructed consent fail to meet the standards required by current informed consent doctrine and are distortions of the original concept. In this paper, we propose the concept of an authorization model whereby participants in genetic data banks are able to exercise a certain amount of control over future uses of genetic data. We argue this preserves the autonomy of individuals at the same time as allowing them to give permission and discretion to researchers for certain types of research. Summary The authorization model represents a step forward in the debate about informed consent in genetic databases. The move towards an authorization model would require changes in the regulatory and legislative environments. Additionally, empirical support of the utility and acceptability of authorization is required.

  18. Ensemble of regional climate model projections for Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, Paul; McGrath, Ray

    2016-04-01

    The method of Regional Climate Modelling (RCM) was employed to assess the impacts of a warming climate on the mid-21st-century climate of Ireland. The RCM simulations were run at high spatial resolution, up to 4 km, thus allowing a better evaluation of the local effects of climate change. Simulations were run for a reference period 1981-2000 and future period 2041-2060. Differences between the two periods provide a measure of climate change. To address the issue of uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble approach was employed. Specifically, the future climate of Ireland was simulated using three different RCMs, driven by four Global Climate Models (GCMs). To account for the uncertainty in future emissions, a number of SRES (B1, A1B, A2) and RCP (4.5, 8.5) emission scenarios were used to simulate the future climate. Through the ensemble approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections can be partially quantified, thus providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. In addition, likelihood values can be assigned to the projections. The RCMs used in this work are the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling-Climate Limited-area Modelling (COSMO-CLM, versions 3 and 4) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The GCMs used are the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5, the UK Met Office's HadGEM2-ES, the CGCM3.1 model from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and the EC-Earth consortium GCM. The projections for mid-century indicate an increase of 1-1.6°C in mean annual temperatures, with the largest increases seen in the east of the country. Warming is enhanced for the extremes (i.e. hot or cold days), with the warmest 5% of daily maximum summer temperatures projected to increase by 0.7-2.6°C. The coldest 5% of night-time temperatures in winter are projected to rise by 1.1-3.1°C. Averaged over the whole country, the number of frost days is projected to decrease by over 50%. The projections indicate an average increase in the length of the growing season

  19. A suggested model for physical examination and conservative treatment of athletic pubalgia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hegedus, Eric J; Stern, Ben; Reiman, Michael P; Tarara, Dan; Wright, Alexis A

    2013-02-01

    Athletic pubalgia (AP) is a chronic debilitating syndrome that affects many athletes. As a syndrome, AP is difficult to diagnose both with clinical examination and imaging. AP is also a challenge for conservative intervention with randomized controlled trials showing mixed success rates. In other syndromes where clinical diagnosis and conservative treatment have been less than clear, a paradigm has been suggested as a framework for clinical decision making. To propose a new clinical diagnostic and treatment paradigm for the conservative management of AP. Relevant studies were viewed with regard to diagnosis and intervention and where a gap in evidence existed, clinical expertise was used to fill that gap and duly noted. A new paradigm is proposed to assist with clinical diagnosis and non-surgical intervention in patients suffering with AP. The level of evidence supporting this paradigm, according to the SORT taxonomy, is primarily level 2B. Further testing is warranted but following the suggested paradigm should lead to a clearer diagnosis of AP and allow more meaningful research into homogeneous patient populations within the AP diagnostic cluster. Strength-of-Recommendation Taxonomy (SORT): 2B. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. The Nature of Scatter at the DARHT Facility and Suggestions for Improved Modeling of DARHT Facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morneau, Rachel Anne [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Klasky, Marc Louis [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-11-09

    The U.S. Stockpile Stewardship Program [1] is designed to sustain and evaluate the nuclear weapons stockpile while foregoing underground nuclear tests. The maintenance of a smaller, aging U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile without underground testing requires complex computer calculations [14]. These calculations in turn need to be verified and benchmarked [14]. A wide range of research facilities have been used to test and evaluate nuclear weapons while respecting the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) [2]. Some of these facilities include the National Ignition Facility (NIF) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, the Z machine at Sandia National Laboratories, and the Dual Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test (DARHT) facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory. This research will focus largely on DARHT (although some information from Cygnus and the Los Alamos Microtron may be used in this research) by modeling it and comparing to experimental data. DARHT is an electron accelerator that employs high-energy flash x-ray sources for imaging hydro-tests. This research proposes to address some of the issues crucial to understanding DARHT Axis II and the analysis of the radiographic images produced. Primarily, the nature of scatter at DARHT will be modeled and verified with experimental data. It will then be shown that certain design decisions can be made to optimize the scatter field for hydrotest experiments. Spectral effects will be briefly explored to determine if there is any considerable effect on the density reconstruction caused by changes in the energy spectrum caused by target changes. Finally, a generalized scatter model will be made using results from MCNP that can be convolved with the direct transmission of an object to simulate the scatter of that object at the detector plane. The region in which with this scatter model is appropriate will be explored.

  1. Active tension network model suggests an exotic mechanical state realized in epithelial tissues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noll, Nicholas; Mani, Madhav; Heemskerk, Idse; Streichan, Sebastian J.; Shraiman, Boris I.

    2017-12-01

    Mechanical interactions play a crucial role in epithelial morphogenesis, yet understanding the complex mechanisms through which stress and deformation affect cell behaviour remains an open problem. Here we formulate and analyse the active tension network (ATN) model, which assumes that the mechanical balance of cells within a tissue is dominated by cortical tension and introduces tension-dependent active remodelling of the cortex. We find that ATNs exhibit unusual mechanical properties. Specifically, an ATN behaves as a fluid at short times, but at long times supports external tension like a solid. Furthermore, an ATN has an extensively degenerate equilibrium mechanical state associated with a discrete conformal--`isogonal'--deformation of cells. The ATN model predicts a constraint on equilibrium cell geometries, which we demonstrate to approximately hold in certain epithelial tissues. We further show that isogonal modes are observed in the fruit fly embryo, accounting for the striking variability of apical areas of ventral cells and helping understand the early phase of gastrulation. Living matter realizes new and exotic mechanical states, the study of which helps to understand biological phenomena.

  2. Hypothalamus transcriptome profile suggests an anorexia-cachexia syndrome in the anx/anx mouse model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercader, Josep Maria; Lozano, Juan José; Sumoy, Lauro; Dierssen, Mara; Visa, Joana; Gratacòs, Mònica; Estivill, Xavier

    2008-11-12

    The anx/anx mouse displays poor appetite and lean appearance and is considered a good model for the study of anorexia nervosa. To identify new genes involved in feeding behavior and body weight regulation we performed an expression profiling in the hypothalamus of the anx/anx mice. Using commercial microarrays we detected 156 differentially expressed genes and validated 92 of those using TaqMan low-density arrays. The expression of a set of 87 candidate genes selected based on literature evidences was also quantified by TaqMan low-density arrays. Our results showed enrichment in deregulated genes involved in cell death, cell morphology, and cancer, as well as an alteration of several signaling circuits involved in energy balance including neuropeptide Y and melanocortin signaling. The expression profile along with the phenotype led us to conclude that anx/anx mice resemble the anorexia-cachexia syndrome typically observed in cancer, infection with human immunodeficiency virus or chronic diseases, rather than starvation, and that anx/anx mice could be considered a good model for the treatment and investigation of this condition.

  3. The Chancellor's Model School Project (CMSP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, Gil

    1999-01-01

    What does it take to create and implement a 7th to 8th grade middle school program where the great majority of students achieve at high academic levels regardless of their previous elementary school backgrounds? This was the major question that guided the research and development of a 7-year long project effort entitled the Chancellor's Model School Project (CMSP) from September 1991 to August 1998. The CMSP effort conducted largely in two New York City public schools was aimed at creating and testing a prototype 7th and 8th grade model program that was organized and test-implemented in two distinct project phases: Phase I of the CMSP effort was conducted from 1991 to 1995 as a 7th to 8th grade extension of an existing K-6 elementary school, and Phase II was conducted from 1995 to 1998 as a 7th to 8th grade middle school program that became an integral part of a newly established 7-12th grade high school. In Phase I, the CMSP demonstrated that with a highly structured curriculum coupled with strong academic support and increased learning time, students participating in the CMSP were able to develop a strong foundation for rigorous high school coursework within the space of 2 years (at the 7th and 8th grades). Mathematics and Reading test score data during Phase I of the project, clearly indicated that significant academic gains were obtained by almost all students -- at both the high and low ends of the spectrum -- regardless of their previous academic performance in the K-6 elementary school experience. The CMSP effort expanded in Phase II to include a fully operating 7-12 high school model. Achievement gains at the 7th and 8th grade levels in Phase II were tempered by the fact that incoming 7th grade students' academic background at the CMSP High School was significantly lower than students participating in Phase 1. Student performance in Phase II was also affected by the broadening of the CMSP effort from a 7-8th grade program to a fully functioning 7-12 high

  4. Research Spotlight: Model suggests path to ending the ongoing Haitian cholera epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Colin

    2011-05-01

    Since early November 2010 a deadly cholera epidemic has been spreading across the Caribbean nation of Haiti, killing thousands of people and infecting hundreds of thousands. While infection rates are being actively monitored, health organizations have been left without a clear understanding of exactly how the disease has spread across Haiti. Cholera can spread through exposure to contaminated water, and the disease travels over long distances if an infected individual moves around the country. Using representations of these two predominant dispersion mechanisms, along with information on the size of the susceptible population, the number of infected individuals, and the aquatic concentration of the cholera-causing bacteria for more than 500 communities, Bertuzzo et al. designed a model that was able to accurately reproduce the progression of the Haitian cholera epidemic. (Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2011GL046823, 2011)

  5. Coumarins as Potential Antioxidant Agents Complemented with Suggested Mechanisms and Approved by Molecular Modeling Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasameen K. Al-Majedy

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Syntheses of coumarins, which are a structurally interesting antioxidant activity, was done in this article. The modification of 7-hydroxycoumarin by different reaction steps was done to yield target compounds. Molecular structures were characterized by different spectroscopical techniques (Fourier transformation infrared and nuclear magnetic resonance. Antioxidant activities were performed by using various in vitro spectrophometric assays against 1,1-diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH radical and hydrogen peroxide (H2O2. All compounds exhibited high efficiency as antioxidants compared to ascorbic acid. The highest efficiency scavenging activity was found for compound 3 (91.0 ± 5.0, followed by compounds 2 and 4 (88.0 ± 2.00; and 87.0 ± 3.00. Ascorbic acid C was used as a standard drug with a percentage inhibition of 91.00 ± 1.5. The mechanism of the synthesized compounds as antioxidants was also studied. Hartree–Fock–based quantum chemical studies have been carried out with the basis set to 3-21G, in order to obtain information about the three-dimensional (3D geometries, electronic structure, molecular modeling, and electronic levels, namely HOMO (highest occupied molecular orbital and LUMO (lowest unoccupied molecular orbital, to understand the antioxidant activity for the synthesized compounds.

  6. Project-matrix models of marketing organization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gutić Dragutin

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Unlike theory and practice of corporation organization, in marketing organization numerous forms and contents at its disposal are not reached until this day. It can be well estimated that marketing organization today in most of our companies and in almost all its parts, noticeably gets behind corporation organization. Marketing managers have always been occupied by basic, narrow marketing activities as: sales growth, market analysis, market growth and market share, marketing research, introduction of new products, modification of products, promotion, distribution etc. They rarely found it necessary to focus a bit more to different aspects of marketing management, for example: marketing planning and marketing control, marketing organization and leading. This paper deals with aspects of project - matrix marketing organization management. Two-dimensional and more-dimensional models are presented. Among two-dimensional, these models are analyzed: Market management/products management model; Products management/management of product lifecycle phases on market model; Customers management/marketing functions management model; Demand management/marketing functions management model; Market positions management/marketing functions management model. .

  7. Source term modelling parameters for Project-90

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, W.; Smith, G.; Worgan, K.; Hodgkinson, D.; Andersson, K.

    1992-04-01

    This document summarises the input parameters for the source term modelling within Project-90. In the first place, the parameters relate to the CALIBRE near-field code which was developed for the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate's (SKI) Project-90 reference repository safety assessment exercise. An attempt has been made to give best estimate values and, where appropriate, a range which is related to variations around base cases. It should be noted that the data sets contain amendments to those considered by KBS-3. In particular, a completely new set of inventory data has been incorporated. The information given here does not constitute a complete set of parameter values for all parts of the CALIBRE code. Rather, it gives the key parameter values which are used in the constituent models within CALIBRE and the associated studies. For example, the inventory data acts as an input to the calculation of the oxidant production rates, which influence the generation of a redox front. The same data is also an initial value data set for the radionuclide migration component of CALIBRE. Similarly, the geometrical parameters of the near-field are common to both sub-models. The principal common parameters are gathered here for ease of reference and avoidance of unnecessary duplication and transcription errors. (au)

  8. Evidence Suggesting a Role of Iron in a Mouse Model of Nephrogenic Systemic Fibrosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chhanda Bose

    Full Text Available Nephrogenic systemic fibrosis is associated with gadolinium contrast exposure in patients with reduced kidney function and carries high morbidity and mortality. We have previously demonstrated that gadolinium contrast agents induce in vivo systemic iron mobilization and in vitro differentiation of peripheral blood mononuclear cells into ferroportin (iron exporter-expressing fibrocytic cells. In the present study we examined the role of iron in a mouse model of nephrogenic systemic fibrosis. Chronic kidney disease was induced in 8-week-old male Balb/C mice with a two-step 5/6 nephrectomy surgery. Five groups of mice were studied: control (n = 5, sham surgery control (n = 5, chronic kidney disease control (n = 4, chronic kidney disease injected with 0.5 mmol/kg body weight of Omniscan 3 days per week, for a total of 10 injections (n = 8, and chronic kidney disease with Omniscan plus deferiprone, 125 mg/kg, in drinking water (n = 9. Deferiprone was continued for 16 weeks until the end of the experiment. Mice with chronic kidney disease injected with Omniscan developed skin changes characteristic of nephrogenic systemic fibrosis including hair loss, reddening, ulceration, and skin tightening by 10 to 16 weeks. Histopathological sections demonstrated dermal fibrosis with increased skin thickness (0.25±0.06 mm, sham; 0.34±+0.3 mm, Omniscan-injected. Additionally, we observed an increase in tissue infiltration of ferroportin-expressing, fibrocyte-like cells accompanied by tissue iron accumulation in the skin of the Omniscan-treated mice. The deferiprone-treated group had significantly decreased skin thickness (p<0.05 and significantly decreased dermal fibrosis compared to the Omniscan-only group. In addition, iron chelation prevented tissue infiltration of ferroportin-expressing, fibrocyte-like cells. Our in vitro experiments demonstrated that exposure to Omniscan resulted in the release of catalytic iron and this was prevented by the iron chelator

  9. MODEL RANCANGAN SISTEM INFORMASI PROJECT MONITORING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanti Yanti

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Economic development makes the property industry growing very rapidly. The property development is supported by the development of contractor’s company that conducts property development. Inside the contracting company doing business can not perform their own procurement because of the many items that must be provided. For the purposes of the construction company entered into an agreement with the subcontractor as vendor conduct procurement in accordance with the needs of contracting companies. To simplify the procurement process, generally conducted by a process called a tender / auction. This is done by contracting companies to get quality and price in accordance with the desired budget. The company’s commitment subcontractors as the procurement of goods to be one key to successful contracting company doing business development process. Therefore, the subcontractor companies are required to have a good commitment. Therefore we need a project monitoring system that can monitor business processes running on those sub contractor company. The purpose of this research is to design a project monitoring information system in accordance with company requirements to operational activities more effective and efficient company.Keywords: project monitoring, design model, subcontractor

  10. AMMA Land surface Model Intercomparison Project (ALMIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boone, A. A.; Derosnay, P.

    2007-05-01

    Extreme climatic variability has afflicted West Africa over the last half century, which has resulted in significant socio-economic consequences for the people of this region. There is therefore a need to improve seasonal to inter-annual prediction of the West-African monsoon (WAM), however, difficulties modeling the WAM arise from both the paucity of observations at sufficient space-time resolutions, and due to the complex interactions between the biosphere, atmosphere and hydrosphere over this region. In particular, there is evidence that the land surface influences the variability of the WAM over a wide range of spatio-temporal scales. A critical aspect of this coupling is the feedback between the regional atmospheric circulation and the strong meridional surface flux gradients of mass and energy. One of the main goals of the African Monsoon Multi-disciplinary Analysis (AMMA) Project is to obtain a better understanding of the physical processes influencing the West-African Monsoon (WAM) on daily to inter-annual timescales. An improved comprehension of the relevant land surface processes is being addressed through the construction of a multi-scale atmospheric and land surface parameter forcing database using a variety of sources; numerical weather prediction forecast data, remote sensing products and local scale observations. The goal of this database is to drive land surface, vegetation and hydrological models over a range of spatial scales (local to regional) in order to gain better insights into the attendant processes. This goal is being met under the auspices of the AMMA Land surface Model Intercomparison Project (ALMIP). In the recently completed Phase 1 of this project, an ensemble of state-of-the-art land surface schemes have been run in "off-line" mode (i.e. decoupled from an atmospheric model) at a regional scale over western Africa for four annual cycles (2002-5). In this talk, intercomparison results will be presented. In addition, results from a

  11. Building integral projection models: a user's guide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rees, Mark; Childs, Dylan Z; Ellner, Stephen P

    2014-05-01

    In order to understand how changes in individual performance (growth, survival or reproduction) influence population dynamics and evolution, ecologists are increasingly using parameterized mathematical models. For continuously structured populations, where some continuous measure of individual state influences growth, survival or reproduction, integral projection models (IPMs) are commonly used. We provide a detailed description of the steps involved in constructing an IPM, explaining how to: (i) translate your study system into an IPM; (ii) implement your IPM; and (iii) diagnose potential problems with your IPM. We emphasize how the study organism's life cycle, and the timing of censuses, together determine the structure of the IPM kernel and important aspects of the statistical analysis used to parameterize an IPM using data on marked individuals. An IPM based on population studies of Soay sheep is used to illustrate the complete process of constructing, implementing and evaluating an IPM fitted to sample data. We then look at very general approaches to parameterizing an IPM, using a wide range of statistical techniques (e.g. maximum likelihood methods, generalized additive models, nonparametric kernel density estimators). Methods for selecting models for parameterizing IPMs are briefly discussed. We conclude with key recommendations and a brief overview of applications that extend the basic model. The online Supporting Information provides commented R code for all our analyses. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

  12. The sigma model on complex projective superspaces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Candu, Constantin; Mitev, Vladimir; Schomerus, Volker [DESY, Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Quella, Thomas [Amsterdam Univ. (Netherlands). Inst. for Theoretical Physics; Saleur, Hubert [CEA Saclay, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Inst. de Physique Theorique; USC, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Physics Dept.

    2009-08-15

    The sigma model on projective superspaces CP{sup S-1} {sup vertical} {sup stroke} {sup S} gives rise to a continuous family of interacting 2D conformal field theories which are parametrized by the curvature radius R and the theta angle {theta}. Our main goal is to determine the spectrum of the model, non-perturbatively as a function of both parameters. We succeed to do so for all open boundary conditions preserving the full global symmetry of the model. In string theory parlor, these correspond to volume filling branes that are equipped with a monopole line bundle and connection. The paper consists of two parts. In the first part, we approach the problem within the continuum formulation. Combining combinatorial arguments with perturbative studies and some simple free field calculations, we determine a closed formula for the partition function of the theory. This is then tested numerically in the second part. There we propose a spin chain regularization of the CP{sup S-1} {sup vertical} {sup stroke} {sup S} model with open boundary conditions and use it to determine the spectrum at the conformal fixed point. The numerical results are in remarkable agreement with the continuum analysis. (orig.)

  13. The sigma model on complex projective superspaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Candu, Constantin; Mitev, Vladimir; Schomerus, Volker; Quella, Thomas; Saleur, Hubert; USC, Los Angeles, CA

    2009-08-01

    The sigma model on projective superspaces CP S-1 vertical stroke S gives rise to a continuous family of interacting 2D conformal field theories which are parametrized by the curvature radius R and the theta angle θ. Our main goal is to determine the spectrum of the model, non-perturbatively as a function of both parameters. We succeed to do so for all open boundary conditions preserving the full global symmetry of the model. In string theory parlor, these correspond to volume filling branes that are equipped with a monopole line bundle and connection. The paper consists of two parts. In the first part, we approach the problem within the continuum formulation. Combining combinatorial arguments with perturbative studies and some simple free field calculations, we determine a closed formula for the partition function of the theory. This is then tested numerically in the second part. There we propose a spin chain regularization of the CP S-1 vertical stroke S model with open boundary conditions and use it to determine the spectrum at the conformal fixed point. The numerical results are in remarkable agreement with the continuum analysis. (orig.)

  14. A Model of Project and Organisational Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Jenny Leonard

    2012-01-01

    The strategic, transformational nature of many information systems projects is now widely understood. Large-scale implementations of systems are known to require significant management of organisational change in order to be successful. Moreover, projects are rarely executed in isolation – most organisations have a large programme of projects being implemented at any one time. However, project and value management methodologies provide ad hoc definitions of the relationship between a project ...

  15. Solid Waste Projection Model: Database User's Guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blackburn, C.L.

    1993-10-01

    The Solid Waste Projection Model (SWPM) system is an analytical tool developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC) specifically to address Hanford solid waste management issues. This document is one of a set of documents supporting the SWPM system and providing instructions in the use and maintenance of SWPM components. This manual contains instructions for using Version 1.4 of the SWPM database: system requirements and preparation, entering and maintaining data, and performing routine database functions. This document supports only those operations which are specific to SWPM database menus and functions and does not Provide instruction in the use of Paradox, the database management system in which the SWPM database is established

  16. The study of the risk management model of construction project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang Bo; Feng Yanping; Liu Changbin

    2010-01-01

    The paper first analyzed the development of the risk management of construction project and the risk management processes, and then briefly introduced the risk management experience of foreign project management. From the project management by objectives point of view, the greatest risk came from the lack of clarity of the objectives in the project management, which led to the project's risk emergence. In the analysis of the principles of the project objectives identification and risk allocation, the paper set up a project management model which insurance companies involved in the whole process of the project management, and simply analyzed the roles of insurance company at last. (authors)

  17. Logistics of Mathematical Modeling-Focused Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harwood, R. Corban

    2018-01-01

    This article addresses the logistics of implementing projects in an undergraduate mathematics class and is intended both for new instructors and for instructors who have had negative experiences implementing projects in the past. Project implementation is given for both lower- and upper-division mathematics courses with an emphasis on mathematical…

  18. The Lunar Mapping and Modeling Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noble, S. K.; Nall, M. E.; French, R. A.; Muery, K. G.

    2009-12-01

    The Lunar Mapping and Modeling Project (LMMP) has been created to manage the development of a suite of lunar mapping and modeling products that support the Constellation Program (CxP) and other lunar exploration activities, including the planning, design, development, test and operations associated with lunar sortie missions, crewed and robotic operations on the surface, and the establishment of a lunar outpost. The information provided through LMMP will assist CxP in: planning tasks in the areas of landing site evaluation and selection, design and placement of landers and other stationary assets, design of rovers and other mobile assets, developing terrain-relative navigation (TRN) capabilities, and assessment and planning of science traverses. The project draws on expertise from several NASA and non-NASA organizations (MSFC, ARC, GSFC, JPL, CRREL - US Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, and the USGS). LMMP will utilize data predominately from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, but also historical and international lunar mission data (e.g. Apollo, Lunar Orbiter, Kaguya, Chandrayaan-1), as available and appropriate, to meet Constellation’s data needs. LMMP will provide access to this data through a single intuitive and easy to use NASA portal that transparently accesses appropriately sanctioned portions of the widely dispersed and distributed collections of lunar data, products and tools. Two visualization systems are being developed, a web-based system called Lunar Mapper, and a desktop client, ILIADS, which will be downloadable from the LMMP portal. LMMP will provide such products as local and regional imagery and DEMs, hazard assessment maps, lighting and gravity models, and resource maps. We are working closely with the LRO team to prevent duplication of efforts and to ensure the highest quality data products. While Constellation is our primary customer, LMMP is striving to be as useful as possible to the lunar science community, the lunar

  19. [Eco-value level classification model of forest ecosystem based on modified projection pursuit technique].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chengzhen; Hong, Wei; Hong, Tao

    2006-03-01

    To optimize the projection function and direction of projection pursuit technique, predigest its realization process, and overcome the shortcomings in long time calculation and in the difficulty of optimizing projection direction and computer programming, this paper presented a modified simplex method (MSM), and based on it, brought forward the eco-value level classification model (EVLCM) of forest ecosystem, which could integrate the multidimensional classification index into one-dimensional projection value, with high projection value denoting high ecosystem services value. Examples of forest ecosystem could be reasonably classified by the new model according to their projection value, suggesting that EVLCM driven directly by samples data of forest ecosystem was simple and feasible, applicable, and maneuverable. The calculating time and value of projection function were 34% and 143% of those with the traditional projection pursuit technique, respectively. This model could be applied extensively to classify and estimate all kinds of non-linear and multidimensional data in ecology, biology, and regional sustainable development.

  20. Bioinformatic analysis and molecular modelling of human ameloblastin suggest a two-domain intrinsically unstructured calcium-binding protein

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vymětal, Jiří; Slabý, I.; Spahr, A.; Vondrášek, Jiří; Lyngstadaas, S. P.

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 116, č. 2 (2008), s. 124-134 ISSN 0909-8836 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA203/05/0009; GA ČR GA203/06/1727; GA MŠk LC512 Grant - others:EU(XE) QLK3-CT-2001-00090 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z40550506 Keywords : ameloblastin * bioinformatic modelling * calcium * intrinsically unstructured protein Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry Impact factor: 1.957, year: 2008

  1. The Radio Language Arts Project: adapting the radio mathematics model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, P R

    1985-01-01

    Kenya's Radio Language Arts Project, directed by the Academy for Educational Development in cooperation with the Kenya Institute of Education in 1980-85, sought to teach English to rural school children in grades 1-3 through use of an intensive, radio-based instructional system. Daily 1/2 hour lessons are broadcast throughout the school year and supported by teachers and print materials. The project further was aimed at testing the feasibility of adaptation of the successful Nicaraguan Radio Math Project to a new subject area. Difficulties were encountered in articulating a language curriculum with the precision required for a media-based instructional system. Also a challenge was defining the acceptable regional standard for pronunciation and grammar; British English was finally selected. An important modification of the Radio Math model concerned the role of the teacher. While Radio Math sought to reduce the teacher's responsibilities during the broadcast, Radio Language Arts teachers played an important instructional role during the English lesson broadcasts by providing translation and checks on work. Evaluations of the Radio language Arts Project suggest significant gains in speaking, listening, and reading skills as well as high levels of satisfaction on the part of parents and teachers.

  2. ‘Cape capture’: Geologic data and modeling results suggest the Holocene loss of a Carolina Cape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thieler, E. Robert; Ashton, Andrew D.

    2011-01-01

    For more than a century, the origin and evolution of the set of cuspate forelands known as the Carolina Capes—Hatteras, Lookout, Fear, and Romain—off the eastern coast of the United States have been discussed and debated. The consensus conceptual model is not only that these capes existed through much or all of the Holocene transgression, but also that their number has not changed. Here we describe bathymetric, lithologic, seismic, and chronologic data that suggest another cape may have existed between Capes Hatteras and Lookout during the early to middle Holocene. This cape likely formed at the distal end of the Neuse-Tar-Pamlico fluvial system during the early Holocene transgression, when this portion of the shelf was flooded ca. 9 cal (calibrated) kyr B.P., and was probably abandoned by ca. 4 cal kyr B.P., when the shoreline attained its present general configuration. Previously proposed mechanisms for cape formation suggest that the large-scale, rhythmic pattern of the Carolina Capes arose from a hydrodynamic template or the preexisting geologic framework. Numerical modeling, however, suggests that the number and spacing of capes can be dynamic, and that a coast can self-organize in response to a high-angle-wave instability in shoreline shape. In shoreline evolution model simulations, smaller cuspate forelands are subsumed by larger neighbors over millennial time scales through a process of ‘cape capture.’ The suggested former cape in Raleigh Bay represents the first interpreted geological evidence of dynamic abandonment suggested by the self-organization hypothesis. Cape capture may be a widespread process in coastal environments with large-scale rhythmic shoreline features; its preservation in the sedimentary record will vary according to geologic setting, physical processes, and sea-level history.

  3. Models for leprosy. An appraisal of graphic representations of the "spectrum" concept as models and a suggestion for a catastrophe theory model for leprosy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivasan, H

    1984-09-01

    Graphic representations of the spectrum concept of leprosy are examined in some detail as models for this disease. This reveals that this concept is somewhat inadequate and that the spectrum metaphor may itself be inappropriate because, by its very linearity of logic, it may not be able to depict the nonlinear behavior of leprosy properly. The assumptions underlying this concept and their logical consequences, brought out by the graphic representations, include an invariable relation between CMI and BI, identity of one type of leprosy with one specific level of CMI, a fixed sequence of types, and the consequent impossibility of skipping the sequence. However, our experience with leprosy does not bear out these assumptions. Further, development and progress of leprosy from a normal (nonleprous) state cannot be represented in these models. A search for alternative conceptual models therefore appears reasonable and even necessary. The catastrophe theory (a branch of topology in mathematics) describes a number of models for explaining how continuous causes could produce sudden or discontinuous changes. Of the various catastrophe theory models available, the relatively simple "cusp" model appears capable of application to leprosy. This model, as applied here, requires two control factors (identified tentatively as the amount of dead bacilli and the amount of living bacilli or their indicators) and one pattern of behavior, identified as progress towards limited or extensive disease. This model suggests under what conditions leprosy will change from one type to another and whether that will happen gradually or suddenly. It also suggests that for certain values of control factors the disease may manifest in one of two forms of borderline leprosy, and that lesions very similar to start with can progress to quite different states under similar conditions of change. The behavior of leprosy agrees more or less with that suggested by this model. The cusp model thus seems to: a

  4. A multi-scale distribution model for non-equilibrium populations suggests resource limitation in an endangered rodent.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William T Bean

    Full Text Available Species distributions are known to be limited by biotic and abiotic factors at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Species distribution models, however, frequently assume a population at equilibrium in both time and space. Studies of habitat selection have repeatedly shown the difficulty of estimating resource selection if the scale or extent of analysis is incorrect. Here, we present a multi-step approach to estimate the realized and potential distribution of the endangered giant kangaroo rat. First, we estimate the potential distribution by modeling suitability at a range-wide scale using static bioclimatic variables. We then examine annual changes in extent at a population-level. We define "available" habitat based on the total suitable potential distribution at the range-wide scale. Then, within the available habitat, model changes in population extent driven by multiple measures of resource availability. By modeling distributions for a population with robust estimates of population extent through time, and ecologically relevant predictor variables, we improved the predictive ability of SDMs, as well as revealed an unanticipated relationship between population extent and precipitation at multiple scales. At a range-wide scale, the best model indicated the giant kangaroo rat was limited to areas that received little to no precipitation in the summer months. In contrast, the best model for shorter time scales showed a positive relation with resource abundance, driven by precipitation, in the current and previous year. These results suggest that the distribution of the giant kangaroo rat was limited to the wettest parts of the drier areas within the study region. This multi-step approach reinforces the differing relationship species may have with environmental variables at different scales, provides a novel method for defining "available" habitat in habitat selection studies, and suggests a way to create distribution models at spatial and

  5. Introduction to Financial Projection Models. Business Management Instructional Software.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pomeroy, Robert W., III

    This guidebook and teacher's guide accompany a personal computer software program and introduce the key elements of financial projection modeling to project the financial statements of an industrial enterprise. The student will then build a model on an electronic spreadsheet. The guidebook teaches the purpose of a financial model and the steps…

  6. The Charlotte Action Research Project: A Model for Direct and Mutually Beneficial Community-University Engagement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrell, Elizabeth; Sorensen, Janni; Howarth, Joe

    2015-01-01

    This article describes the evolution of the Charlotte Action Research Project (CHARP), a community-university partnership founded in 2008 at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte, and focuses particularly on the program's unique organizational structure. Research findings of a project evaluation suggest that the CHARP model's unique…

  7. A Grammar-based Approach for Modeling User Interactions and Generating Suggestions During the Data Exploration Process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dabek, Filip; Caban, Jesus J

    2017-01-01

    Despite the recent popularity of visual analytics focusing on big data, little is known about how to support users that use visualization techniques to explore multi-dimensional datasets and accomplish specific tasks. Our lack of models that can assist end-users during the data exploration process has made it challenging to learn from the user's interactive and analytical process. The ability to model how a user interacts with a specific visualization technique and what difficulties they face are paramount in supporting individuals with discovering new patterns within their complex datasets. This paper introduces the notion of visualization systems understanding and modeling user interactions with the intent of guiding a user through a task thereby enhancing visual data exploration. The challenges faced and the necessary future steps to take are discussed; and to provide a working example, a grammar-based model is presented that can learn from user interactions, determine the common patterns among a number of subjects using a K-Reversible algorithm, build a set of rules, and apply those rules in the form of suggestions to new users with the goal of guiding them along their visual analytic process. A formal evaluation study with 300 subjects was performed showing that our grammar-based model is effective at capturing the interactive process followed by users and that further research in this area has the potential to positively impact how users interact with a visualization system.

  8. An integrated disease/pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model suggests improved interleukin-21 regimens validated prospectively for mouse solid cancers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moran Elishmereni

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Interleukin (IL-21 is an attractive antitumor agent with potent immunomodulatory functions. Yet thus far, the cytokine has yielded only partial responses in solid cancer patients, and conditions for beneficial IL-21 immunotherapy remain elusive. The current work aims to identify clinically-relevant IL-21 regimens with enhanced efficacy, based on mathematical modeling of long-term antitumor responses. For this purpose, pharmacokinetic (PK and pharmacodynamic (PD data were acquired from a preclinical study applying systemic IL-21 therapy in murine solid cancers. We developed an integrated disease/PK/PD model for the IL-21 anticancer response, and calibrated it using selected "training" data. The accuracy of the model was verified retrospectively under diverse IL-21 treatment settings, by comparing its predictions to independent "validation" data in melanoma and renal cell carcinoma-challenged mice (R(2>0.90. Simulations of the verified model surfaced important therapeutic insights: (1 Fractionating the standard daily regimen (50 µg/dose into a twice daily schedule (25 µg/dose is advantageous, yielding a significantly lower tumor mass (45% decrease; (2 A low-dose (12 µg/day regimen exerts a response similar to that obtained under the 50 µg/day treatment, suggestive of an equally efficacious dose with potentially reduced toxicity. Subsequent experiments in melanoma-bearing mice corroborated both of these predictions with high precision (R(2>0.89, thus validating the model also prospectively in vivo. Thus, the confirmed PK/PD model rationalizes IL-21 therapy, and pinpoints improved clinically-feasible treatment schedules. Our analysis demonstrates the value of employing mathematical modeling and in silico-guided design of solid tumor immunotherapy in the clinic.

  9. Can fire atlas data improve species distribution model projections?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crimmins, Shawn M; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Mynsberge, Alison R; Safford, Hugh D

    2014-07-01

    Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used in studies of climate change impacts, yet are often criticized for failing to incorporate disturbance processes that can influence species distributions. Here we use two temporally independent data sets of vascular plant distributions, climate data, and fire atlas data to examine the influence of disturbance history on SDM projection accuracy through time in the mountain ranges of California, USA. We used hierarchical partitioning to examine the influence of fire occurrence on the distribution of 144 vascular plant species and built a suite of SDMs to examine how the inclusion of fire-related predictors (fire occurrence and departure from historical fire return intervals) affects SDM projection accuracy. Fire occurrence provided the least explanatory power among predictor variables for predicting species' distributions, but provided improved explanatory power for species whose regeneration is tied closely to fire. A measure of the departure from historic fire return interval had greater explanatory power for calibrating modern SDMs than fire occurrence. This variable did not improve internal model accuracy for most species, although it did provide marginal improvement to models for species adapted to high-frequency fire regimes. Fire occurrence and fire return interval departure were strongly related to the climatic covariates used in SDM development, suggesting that improvements in model accuracy may not be expected due to limited additional explanatory power. Our results suggest that the inclusion of coarse-scale measures of disturbance in SDMs may not be necessary to predict species distributions under climate change, particularly for disturbance processes that are largely mediated by climate.

  10. Financial and organizational models of NPP construction projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivanov, Timur

    2010-01-01

    The recent evolution of financial and organizational models of NPP projects can be truly reputed to open a new page of the world market of NPP construction. The definition of the concrete model is based mostly on specific cooperation backgrounds and current terms and conditions under which the particular NPP project is being evolved. In this article the most commonly known strategies and schemes of financing structuring for export NPP construction projects are scrutinized. Special attention is paid to the analysis of BOO/BOT models which are based on the public-private partnership. Most BOO/BOT projects in the power sector has Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) as an integral part of them. The PPA key principles are studied here as well. The flexibility and adaptability of the public-private partnership models for financing and organization of the NPP projects contributes substantially to the competitiveness of the NPP projects especially under current economic conditions. (orig.)

  11. Multi-Agent Modeling in Managing Six Sigma Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Y. Chau

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a multi-agent model is proposed for considering the human resources factor in decision making in relation to the six sigma project. The proposed multi-agent system is expected to increase the acccuracy of project prioritization and to stabilize the human resources service level. A simulation of the proposed multiagent model is conducted. The results show that a multi-agent model which takes into consideration human resources when making decisions about project selection and project team formation is important in enabling efficient and effective project management. The multi-agent modeling approach provides an alternative approach for improving communication and the autonomy of six sigma projects in business organizations.

  12. Modelling Virus and Antibody Dynamics during Dengue Virus Infection Suggests a Role for Antibody in Virus Clearance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannah E Clapham

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Dengue is an infection of increasing global importance, yet uncertainty remains regarding critical aspects of its virology, immunology and epidemiology. One unanswered question is how infection is controlled and cleared during a dengue infection. Antibody is thought to play a role, but little past work has examined the kinetics of both virus and antibody during natural infections. We present data on multiple virus and antibody titres measurements recorded sequentially during infection from 53 Vietnamese dengue patients. We fit mechanistic mathematical models of the dynamics of viral replication and the host immune response to these data. These models fit the data well. The model with antibody removing virus fits the data best, but with a role suggested for ADCC or other infected cell clearance mechanisms. Our analysis therefore shows that the observed viral and antibody kinetics are consistent with antibody playing a key role in controlling viral replication. This work gives quantitative insight into the relationship between antibody levels and the efficiency of viral clearance. It will inform the future development of mechanistic models of how vaccines and antivirals might modify the course of natural dengue infection.

  13. High-resolution mutational profiling suggests the genetic validity of glioblastoma patient-derived pre-clinical models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shawn E Yost

    Full Text Available Recent advances in the ability to efficiently characterize tumor genomes is enabling targeted drug development, which requires rigorous biomarker-based patient selection to increase effectiveness. Consequently, representative DNA biomarkers become equally important in pre-clinical studies. However, it is still unclear how well these markers are maintained between the primary tumor and the patient-derived tumor models. Here, we report the comprehensive identification of somatic coding mutations and copy number aberrations in four glioblastoma (GBM primary tumors and their matched pre-clinical models: serum-free neurospheres, adherent cell cultures, and mouse xenografts. We developed innovative methods to improve the data quality and allow a strict comparison of matched tumor samples. Our analysis identifies known GBM mutations altering PTEN and TP53 genes, and new actionable mutations such as the loss of PIK3R1, and reveals clear patient-to-patient differences. In contrast, for each patient, we do not observe any significant remodeling of the mutational profile between primary to model tumors and the few discrepancies can be attributed to stochastic errors or differences in sample purity. Similarly, we observe ∼96% primary-to-model concordance in copy number calls in the high-cellularity samples. In contrast to previous reports based on gene expression profiles, we do not observe significant differences at the DNA level between in vitro compared to in vivo models. This study suggests, at a remarkable resolution, the genome-wide conservation of a patient's tumor genetics in various pre-clinical models, and therefore supports their use for the development and testing of personalized targeted therapies.

  14. Radiation exposure modeling and project schedule visualization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaquish, W.R.; Enderlin, V.R.

    1995-10-01

    This paper discusses two applications using IGRIP (Interactive Graphical Robot Instruction Program) to assist environmental remediation efforts at the Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford Site. In the first application, IGRIP is used to calculate the estimated radiation exposure to workers conducting tasks in radiation environments. In the second, IGRIP is used as a configuration management tool to detect interferences between equipment and personnel work areas for multiple projects occurring simultaneously in one area. Both of these applications have the capability to reduce environmental remediation costs by reducing personnel radiation exposure and by providing a method to effectively manage multiple projects in a single facility

  15. A Team Building Model for Software Engineering Courses Term Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahin, Yasar Guneri

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a new model for team building, which enables teachers to build coherent teams rapidly and fairly for the term projects of software engineering courses. Moreover, the model can also be used to build teams for any type of project, if the team member candidates are students, or if they are inexperienced on a certain subject. The…

  16. Uncertain soil moisture feedbacks in model projections of Sahel precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, A. M.; Lintner, B. R.; Findell, K. L.; Giannini, A.

    2017-12-01

    Given the uncertainties in climate model projections of Sahel precipitation, at the northern edge of the West African Monsoon, understanding the factors governing projected precipitation changes in this semiarid region is crucial. This study investigates how long-term soil moisture changes projected under climate change may feedback on projected changes of Sahel rainfall, using simulations with and without soil moisture change from five climate models participating in the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment-Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 experiment. In four out of five models analyzed, soil moisture feedbacks significantly influence the projected West African precipitation response to warming; however, the sign of these feedbacks differs across the models. In other words, we show, over a subset of climate models, how land-atmosphere interactions may be a cause of uncertainty in model projections of precipitation. These results demonstrate that reducing uncertainties across model projections of the West African Monsoon requires, among other factors, improved mechanistic understanding and constraint of simulated land-atmosphere feedbacks, even at the large spatial scales considered here.

  17. Projective Modeling and System Change: Reservoir Management Examples

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keesman, K.J.

    2006-01-01

    In this paper a projective modeling approach for ecological/ environmental systems is introduced. The basic idea behind projective modeling is to define (possible) future output behavior and to use identifiable timevarying system parameters, representing underlying sub-processes, as an (additional)

  18. Replication/Implementation Model Field Test: Project SHAL.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achilles, C. M.; Young, Rufus, Jr.

    This document reports findings of a study that evaluated the implementation model developed for Project SHAL, an "effective schools" reform model. Implemented in 1980 in Area I of the St. Louis Public School District (Missouri), Project SHAL is an acronym for the four original participating schools--Stowe, Hempstead, Arlington, and…

  19. Creation and usage of component model in projecting information systems

    OpenAIRE

    Urbonas, Paulius

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this project was to create the information system, using component model. Making new information systems, often the same models are building. Realizing system with component model in creating new system it‘s possible to use the old components. To describe advantages of component model information system was created for company “Vilseda”. If the created components used in future, they have been projected according to theirs types(grafical user interface, data and function reques...

  20. Rapid Energy Modeling Workflow Demonstration Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Conditioning Engineers BIM Building Information Model BLCC building life cycle costs BPA Building Performance Analysis CAD computer assisted...utilizes information on operations, geometry, orientation, weather, and materials, generating Three-Dimensional (3D) Building Information Models ( BIM ...executed a demonstration of Rapid Energy Modeling (REM) workflows that employed building information modeling ( BIM ) approaches and conceptual energy

  1. A Model of and for Virtual Projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Garud, R.; Kumaraswamy, A.; Tuertscher, P.R.; Cattani, G.; Ferriani, S.; Frederiksen, L.; Täube, F.

    2011-01-01

    We examine how digital technologies enable distributed actors to collaborate asynchronously on virtual projects. We use Wikipedia and associated wiki digital technology as the research site for our exploration. Our probe of the emergence of Wikipedia articles highlights a distinctive property of

  2. The PASS Model Project: Administrative Handbook.

    Science.gov (United States)

    George Peabody Coll. for Teachers, Nashville, TN.

    Described is the PASS (Psychoeducational Agency-School System) Project, a collaborative effort between the Metropolitan Nashville Public Schools and the Child Study Center of George Peabody College for Teachers to demonstrate how agency and school system resources may be combined in an integrated service delivery system for learning disabled (LD)…

  3. Organizational suggestion system in the era of holding by developing an innovative model : the case of bonyade ta avon holding in Iran(an applied model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meysam Ghasemi

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the popular ways of taking advantage of personnel creativity is through suggestionsystems. Our main question is how to implement suggestion system in holding with conglomeratestructure. The paper presents an innovative model that were named ITFSK Model with accordanceof Bonayade Taavone (a holding that has many companies and institutions with conglomeratestructure. ITFSK is a model that explains how participation management and suggestion system isimplemented effectively in huge Enterprises (holding and this approach brings continuousimprovement (kaizen and it impacts the productivity of these enterprises.The paper is based on field research and the research in Bonyade Tavan that has 22 companies and2 institutions that activity fields of the subholdings is very varied.Our model consists of five main parts such as ideas bank, think-tank, feedback, sharing ofknowledge and kaizen that was named ITFSK.Implementation of “Suggestion system” rules has immediate and significant effects on theproductivity of activities in the jobs, thus influencing the performance of processes in the analyzedorganization. Suggestion system can result in kaizen and innovation in environment oforganization.The model was used to implement and evaluate a suggestion system of holding with conglomeratedstructure. The application of the model to evaluate the suggestion system provided some goodinsights and highlighted some areas of improvement.

  4. The mathematical model for total pubertal growth in idiopathic growth hormone (GH) deficiency suggests a moderate role of GH dose.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranke, Michael B; Lindberg, Anders; Martin, David D; Bakker, Bert; Wilton, Patrick; Albertsson-Wikland, Kerstin; Cowell, Chris T; Price, David A; Reiter, Edward O

    2003-10-01

    The role of GH treatment during total pubertal growth (TPG) is still unclear. We developed a prediction model for TPG (centimeters) through a multiple regression analysis of various prepubertal parameters in 303 adolescents with idiopathic GH deficiency from the KIGS database. Prepubertal catch-up growth and near-adult height were achieved, and GH dose was kept constant at approximately 30 micro g/kg.d. The model was validated on a cohort of 36 patients from one center. Four TPG predictors explained 70% of the variability with an error SD of 4.2 cm: gender (TPG in males was >11.3 cm vs. that in females), age at onset of puberty (negative), height SD score minus midparental height SD score at puberty onset (negative), and mean GH dose during puberty (positive). Our analysis suggests that TPG in idiopathic GH deficiency is only moderately dependent on GH dose. The use of a higher GH dosage at the onset of puberty should thus depend on the individual's height development. The TPG model aids in the planning of individually optimized and cost-effective GH treatment.

  5. Expertly validated models and phylogenetically-controlled analysis suggests responses to climate change are related to species traits in the order lagomorpha.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katie Leach

    Full Text Available Climate change during the past five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems, and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs have been used widely to project changes in species' bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical, and habitat variables for all 87 lagomorph species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current models and only those deemed 'modellable' within our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species. Phylogenetically-controlled regressions were used to test whether species traits correlated with predicted responses to climate change. Climate change is likely to impact more than two-thirds of lagomorph species, with leporids (rabbits, hares, and jackrabbits likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov's Pika (Ochotona koslowi. Smaller-bodied species were more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing little poleward movement, and fecund species were more likely to shift latitudinally and elevationally. Our results suggest that species traits may be important indicators of future climate change and we believe multi-species approaches, as demonstrated here, are likely to lead to more effective mitigation measures and conservation management. We strongly advocate studies minimising data gaps in our knowledge of

  6. Validation of HEDR models. Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Napier, B.A.; Simpson, J.C.; Eslinger, P.W.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.; Thiede, M.E.; Walters, W.H.

    1994-05-01

    The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project has developed a set of computer models for estimating the possible radiation doses that individuals may have received from past Hanford Site operations. This document describes the validation of these models. In the HEDR Project, the model validation exercise consisted of comparing computational model estimates with limited historical field measurements and experimental measurements that are independent of those used to develop the models. The results of any one test do not mean that a model is valid. Rather, the collection of tests together provide a level of confidence that the HEDR models are valid.

  7. QMU in Integrated Spacecraft System Models Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ACTA and Sandia National Laboratories propose to quantify and propagate substructure modeling uncertainty for reduced-order substructure models to higher levels of...

  8. A Multi-objective model for selection of projects to finance new enterprise SMEs in Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.R. Coronado-Hernández

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This paper presents a multi-objective programming model for selection of Projects for Financing New Enterprise SMEs in Colombia with objectivity and transparency in every call. Approach: The model has four social objectives, subject to constraint budget and to the requirements of every summons. The resolution procedure for the model is based on principles of goal programming. Findings: Selection projects subject to the impact within the country. Research limitations: The selection of the projects is restricted by a legal framework, the terms of reference and the budget of the summons. Practical implications: The projects must be viable according to the characteristics of every summons. Originality/value: The suggested model offers an alternative for entities that need to evaluate projects of co-financing for the managerial development of the SMEs with more objectivity and transparency in the assignment of resources.

  9. Models of text mining to measure improvements to doctoral courses suggested by “STELLA” phd survey respondents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pasquale Pavone

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available We present Text Mining models to thematically categorise and measure the suggestions of  PhD holders on improving PhD programmes in the STELLA survey (Statistiche in TEma di Laureati e LAvoro. The coded responses questionnaire, designed to evaluate the employment opportunities of students and assess their learning experience, included open-ended questions on how to improve PhD programmes. The Corpus analysed was taken from the data of Italian PhD holders between 2005 and 2009 in eight universities (Bergamo, Brescia, Milano Statale, Milano Bicocca, Pisa, Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna, Palermo and Pavia. The usual methodological approach to text analysis allowed us to categorize open-ended proposals of PhD courses improvements in 8 Italian Universities.

  10. Wake models developed during the Wind Shadow project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larsen, S.; Ott, S.; Pena, A.; Berg, J.; Nielsen, M.; Rathmann, O.; Joergensen, H.

    2011-11-15

    The Wind Shadow project has developed and validated improved models for determining the wakes losses, and thereby the array efficiency of very large, closely packed wind farms. The rationale behind the project has been that the existing software has been covering these types of wind farms poorly, both with respect to the densely packed turbines and the large fetches needed to describe the collective shadow effects of one farm to the next. Further the project has developed the necessary software for the use of the models. Guidelines with recommendations for the use of the models are included in the model deliverables. The project has been carried out as a collaborative project between Risoe DTU, DONG, Vattenfall, DNV and VESTAS, and it has been financed by energinet.dk grant no. 10086. (Author)

  11. Final Project Report Load Modeling Transmission Research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lesieutre, Bernard [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Bravo, Richard [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Yinger, Robert [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Chassin, Dave [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Huang, Henry [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Lu, Ning [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Hiskens, Ian [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Venkataramanan, Giri [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2012-03-31

    The research presented in this report primarily focuses on improving power system load models to better represent their impact on system behavior. The previous standard load model fails to capture the delayed voltage recovery events that are observed in the Southwest and elsewhere. These events are attributed to stalled air conditioner units after a fault. To gain a better understanding of their role in these events and to guide modeling efforts, typical air conditioner units were testing in laboratories. Using data obtained from these extensive tests, new load models were developed to match air conditioner behavior. An air conditioner model is incorporated in the new WECC composite load model. These models are used in dynamic studies of the West and can impact power transfer limits for California. Unit-level and systemlevel solutions are proposed as potential solutions to the delayed voltage recovery problem.

  12. Visual modelling suggests a weak relationship between the evolution of ultraviolet vision and plumage coloration in birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lind, O; Delhey, K

    2015-03-01

    Birds have sophisticated colour vision mediated by four cone types that cover a wide visual spectrum including ultraviolet (UV) wavelengths. Many birds have modest UV sensitivity provided by violet-sensitive (VS) cones with sensitivity maxima between 400 and 425 nm. However, some birds have evolved higher UV sensitivity and a larger visual spectrum given by UV-sensitive (UVS) cones maximally sensitive at 360-370 nm. The reasons for VS-UVS transitions and their relationship to visual ecology remain unclear. It has been hypothesized that the evolution of UVS-cone vision is linked to plumage colours so that visual sensitivity and feather coloration are 'matched'. This leads to the specific prediction that UVS-cone vision enhances the discrimination of plumage colours of UVS birds while such an advantage is absent or less pronounced for VS-bird coloration. We test this hypothesis using knowledge of the complex distribution of UVS cones among birds combined with mathematical modelling of colour discrimination during different viewing conditions. We find no support for the hypothesis, which, combined with previous studies, suggests only a weak relationship between UVS-cone vision and plumage colour evolution. Instead, we suggest that UVS-cone vision generally favours colour discrimination, which creates a nonspecific selection pressure for the evolution of UVS cones. © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

  13. Uncertain soil moisture feedbacks in model projections of Sahel precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Alexis; Lintner, Benjamin R.; Findell, Kirsten; Giannini, Alessandra

    2017-06-01

    Given the uncertainties in climate model projections of Sahel precipitation, at the northern edge of the West African Monsoon, understanding the factors governing projected precipitation changes in this semiarid region is crucial. This study investigates how long-term soil moisture changes projected under climate change may feedback on projected changes of Sahel rainfall, using simulations with and without soil moisture change from five climate models participating in the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment-Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 experiment. In four out of five models analyzed, soil moisture feedbacks significantly influence the projected West African precipitation response to warming; however, the sign of these feedbacks differs across the models. These results demonstrate that reducing uncertainties across model projections of the West African Monsoon requires, among other factors, improved mechanistic understanding and constraint of simulated land-atmosphere feedbacks, even at the large spatial scales considered here.Plain Language SummaryClimate model projections of Sahel rainfall remain notoriously uncertain; understanding the physical processes responsible for this uncertainty is thus crucial. Our study focuses on analyzing the feedbacks of soil moisture changes on model projections of the West African Monsoon under global warming. Soil moisture-atmosphere interactions have been shown in prior studies to play an important role in this region, but the potential feedbacks of long-term soil moisture changes on projected precipitation changes have not been investigated specifically. To isolate these feedbacks, we use targeted simulations from five climate models, with and without soil moisture change. Importantly, we find that climate models exhibit soil moisture-precipitation feedbacks of different sign in this region: in some models soil moisture changes amplify precipitation changes (positive feedback), in others they dampen them

  14. A Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model for Sustainability Risk Evaluation of PPP Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Libiao Bai

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Evaluating the sustainability risk level of public–private partnership (PPP projects can reduce project risk incidents and achieve the sustainable development of the organization. However, the existing studies about PPP projects risk management mainly focus on exploring the impact of financial and revenue risks but ignore the sustainability risks, causing the concept of “sustainability” to be missing while evaluating the risk level of PPP projects. To evaluate the sustainability risk level and achieve the most important objective of providing a reference for the public and private sectors when making decisions on PPP project management, this paper constructs a factor system of sustainability risk of PPP projects based on an extensive literature review and develops a mathematical model based on the methods of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model (FCEM and failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA for evaluating the sustainability risk level of PPP projects. In addition, this paper conducts computational experiment based on a questionnaire survey to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of this proposed model. The results suggest that this model is reasonable for evaluating the sustainability risk level of PPP projects. To our knowledge, this paper is the first study to evaluate the sustainability risk of PPP projects, which would not only enrich the theories of project risk management, but also serve as a reference for the public and private sectors for the sustainable planning and development. Keywords: sustainability risk eva

  15. Dynamic Rupture Models Suggest High Fluid Pressures and Low Differential Stresses for the M 9.2 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madden, Elizabeth; van Zelst, Iris; Ulrich, Thomas; van Dinther, Ylona; Gabriel, Alice-Agnes

    2017-04-01

    stresses in the earthquake cycle model decrease exponentially with decreasing depth, high fluid pressure is not required everywhere along the subduction zone interface. This suggests that earthquakes along the Sumatra-Andaman subduction zone operate under the conditions of very low effective and differential stresses near the hypocenter, which may result from high fluid pressure there. The final surface displacements for all three models are compared as preparation for future work to use them as input for tsunami wave propagation models in the context of the ASCETE project, "Advanced Simulation of Coupled Earthquake and Tsunami Events".

  16. A Regional Climate Model Evaluation System Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Develop a packaged data management infrastructure for the comparison of generated climate model output to existing observational datasets that includes capabilities...

  17. Model Updating Nonlinear System Identification Toolbox Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ZONA Technology (ZONA) proposes to develop an enhanced model updating nonlinear system identification (MUNSID) methodology that utilizes flight data with...

  18. Occupant Protection Data Mining and Modeling Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Current National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) occupant protection standards and requirements are based on extrapolations of biodynamic models, which...

  19. Forecasting project schedule performance using probabilistic and deterministic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.A. Abdel Azeem

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Earned value management (EVM was originally developed for cost management and has not widely been used for forecasting project duration. In addition, EVM based formulas for cost or schedule forecasting are still deterministic and do not provide any information about the range of possible outcomes and the probability of meeting the project objectives. The objective of this paper is to develop three models to forecast the estimated duration at completion. Two of these models are deterministic; earned value (EV and earned schedule (ES models. The third model is a probabilistic model and developed based on Kalman filter algorithm and earned schedule management. Hence, the accuracies of the EV, ES and Kalman Filter Forecasting Model (KFFM through the different project periods will be assessed and compared with the other forecasting methods such as the Critical Path Method (CPM, which makes the time forecast at activity level by revising the actual reporting data for each activity at a certain data date. A case study project is used to validate the results of the three models. Hence, the best model is selected based on the lowest average percentage of error. The results showed that the KFFM developed in this study provides probabilistic prediction bounds of project duration at completion and can be applied through the different project periods with smaller errors than those observed in EV and ES forecasting models.

  20. Genetic and functional analyses of SHANK2 mutations suggest a multiple hit model of autism spectrum disorders.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claire S Leblond

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Autism spectrum disorders (ASD are a heterogeneous group of neurodevelopmental disorders with a complex inheritance pattern. While many rare variants in synaptic proteins have been identified in patients with ASD, little is known about their effects at the synapse and their interactions with other genetic variations. Here, following the discovery of two de novo SHANK2 deletions by the Autism Genome Project, we identified a novel 421 kb de novo SHANK2 deletion in a patient with autism. We then sequenced SHANK2 in 455 patients with ASD and 431 controls and integrated these results with those reported by Berkel et al. 2010 (n = 396 patients and n = 659 controls. We observed a significant enrichment of variants affecting conserved amino acids in 29 of 851 (3.4% patients and in 16 of 1,090 (1.5% controls (P = 0.004, OR = 2.37, 95% CI = 1.23-4.70. In neuronal cell cultures, the variants identified in patients were associated with a reduced synaptic density at dendrites compared to the variants only detected in controls (P = 0.0013. Interestingly, the three patients with de novo SHANK2 deletions also carried inherited CNVs at 15q11-q13 previously associated with neuropsychiatric disorders. In two cases, the nicotinic receptor CHRNA7 was duplicated and in one case the synaptic translation repressor CYFIP1 was deleted. These results strengthen the role of synaptic gene dysfunction in ASD but also highlight the presence of putative modifier genes, which is in keeping with the "multiple hit model" for ASD. A better knowledge of these genetic interactions will be necessary to understand the complex inheritance pattern of ASD.

  1. Radiative-convective equilibrium model intercomparison project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wing, Allison A.; Reed, Kevin A.; Satoh, Masaki; Stevens, Bjorn; Bony, Sandrine; Ohno, Tomoki

    2018-03-01

    RCEMIP, an intercomparison of multiple types of models configured in radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE), is proposed. RCE is an idealization of the climate system in which there is a balance between radiative cooling of the atmosphere and heating by convection. The scientific objectives of RCEMIP are three-fold. First, clouds and climate sensitivity will be investigated in the RCE setting. This includes determining how cloud fraction changes with warming and the role of self-aggregation of convection in climate sensitivity. Second, RCEMIP will quantify the dependence of the degree of convective aggregation and tropical circulation regimes on temperature. Finally, by providing a common baseline, RCEMIP will allow the robustness of the RCE state across the spectrum of models to be assessed, which is essential for interpreting the results found regarding clouds, climate sensitivity, and aggregation, and more generally, determining which features of tropical climate a RCE framework is useful for. A novel aspect and major advantage of RCEMIP is the accessibility of the RCE framework to a variety of models, including cloud-resolving models, general circulation models, global cloud-resolving models, single-column models, and large-eddy simulation models.

  2. Leading Undergraduate Research Projects in Mathematical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seshaiyer, Padmanabhan

    2017-01-01

    In this article, we provide some useful perspectives and experiences in mentoring students in undergraduate research (UR) in mathematical modeling using differential equations. To engage students in this topic, we present a systematic approach to the creation of rich problems from real-world phenomena; present mathematical models that are derived…

  3. Model Updating Nonlinear System Identification Toolbox Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ZONA Technology proposes to develop an enhanced model updating nonlinear system identification (MUNSID) methodology by adopting the flight data with state-of-the-art...

  4. Multiscale Modeling of Hall Thrusters Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — New multiscale modeling capability for analyzing advanced Hall thrusters is proposed. This technology offers NASA the ability to reduce development effort of new...

  5. Generalized Reduced Order Model Generation Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — M4 Engineering proposes to develop a generalized reduced order model generation method. This method will allow for creation of reduced order aeroservoelastic state...

  6. Educating the Community: A Watershed Model Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perryess, C. S.

    2001-01-01

    Focuses on the construction and use of a schoolyard model of the Morrow Bay watershed in California. Describes the design and use of materials that include styrofoam insulation, crushed granite, cement, and stucco. (DDR)

  7. Service Oriented Spacecraft Modeling Environment Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The I-Logix team proposes development of the Service Oriented Spacecraft Modeling Environment (SOSME) to allow faster and more effective spacecraft system design...

  8. Global soil carbon projections are improved by modelling microbial processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieder, William R.; Bonan, Gordon B.; Allison, Steven D.

    2013-10-01

    Society relies on Earth system models (ESMs) to project future climate and carbon (C) cycle feedbacks. However, the soil C response to climate change is highly uncertain in these models and they omit key biogeochemical mechanisms. Specifically, the traditional approach in ESMs lacks direct microbial control over soil C dynamics. Thus, we tested a new model that explicitly represents microbial mechanisms of soil C cycling on the global scale. Compared with traditional models, the microbial model simulates soil C pools that more closely match contemporary observations. It also projects a much wider range of soil C responses to climate change over the twenty-first century. Global soils accumulate C if microbial growth efficiency declines with warming in the microbial model. If growth efficiency adapts to warming, the microbial model projects large soil C losses. By comparison, traditional models project modest soil C losses with global warming. Microbes also change the soil response to increased C inputs, as might occur with CO2 or nutrient fertilization. In the microbial model, microbes consume these additional inputs; whereas in traditional models, additional inputs lead to C storage. Our results indicate that ESMs should simulate microbial physiology to more accurately project climate change feedbacks.

  9. Model for setting priority construction project objectives aligned with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A comprehensive model based on priority project objectives aligned with monetary incentives, and agreed upon by built environment stakeholders was developed. A web survey was adopted to send out a questionnaire to nationwide participants, including contractors, quantity surveyors, project managers, architects, and ...

  10. A whole stand basal area projection model for Appalachian hardwoods

    Science.gov (United States)

    John R. Brooks; Lichun Jiang; Matthew Perkowski; Benktesh Sharma

    2008-01-01

    Two whole-stand basal area projection models were developed for Appalachian hardwood stands. The proposed equations are an algebraic difference projection form based on existing basal area and the change in age, trees per acre, and/or dominant height. Average equation error was less than 10 square feet per acre and residuals exhibited no irregular trends.

  11. Improving Project Management Using Formal Models and Architectures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahn, Theodore; Sturken, Ian

    2011-01-01

    This talk discusses the advantages formal modeling and architecture brings to project management. These emerging technologies have both great potential and challenges for improving information available for decision-making. The presentation covers standards, tools and cultural issues needing consideration, and includes lessons learned from projects the presenters have worked on.

  12. Building Context with Tumor Growth Modeling Projects in Differential Equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beier, Julie C.; Gevertz, Jana L.; Howard, Keith E.

    2015-01-01

    The use of modeling projects serves to integrate, reinforce, and extend student knowledge. Here we present two projects related to tumor growth appropriate for a first course in differential equations. They illustrate the use of problem-based learning to reinforce and extend course content via a writing or research experience. Here we discuss…

  13. Wake models developed during the Wind Shadow Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Søren Ejling; Ott, Søren; Pena Diaz, Alfredo

    The Wind Shadow project has developed and validated improved models for determining the wakes losses, and thereby the array efficiency of very large, closely packed wind farms. The rationale behind the project has been that the existing software has been covering these types of wind farms poorly...

  14. Management of information in development projects – a proposed integrated model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Bester

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available The first section of the article focuses on the need for development in Africa and the specific challenges of development operations. It describes the need for a holistic and integrated information management model as part of the project management body of knowledge aimed at managing the information flow between communities and development project teams. It is argued that information, and access to information, is crucial in development projects and can therefore be seen as a critical success factor in any development project. In the second section of the article, the three information areas of the holistic and integrated information management model are described. In the section thereafter we suggest roles and actions for information managers to facilitate information processes integral to the model. These processes seek to create a developing information community that aligns itself with the development project, and supports and sustains it.

  15. Cloud radiative effects and changes simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Sun-Hee; Kim, Ok-Yeon; Kim, Dongmin; Lee, Myong-In

    2017-07-01

    Using 32 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models, this study examines the veracity in the simulation of cloud amount and their radiative effects (CREs) in the historical run driven by observed external radiative forcing for 1850-2005, and their future changes in the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 scenario runs for 2006-2100. Validation metrics for the historical run are designed to examine the accuracy in the representation of spatial patterns for climatological mean, and annual and interannual variations of clouds and CREs. The models show large spread in the simulation of cloud amounts, specifically in the low cloud amount. The observed relationship between cloud amount and the controlling large-scale environment are also reproduced diversely by various models. Based on the validation metrics, four models—ACCESS1.0, ACCESS1.3, HadGEM2-CC, and HadGEM2-ES—are selected as best models, and the average of the four models performs more skillfully than the multimodel ensemble average. All models project global-mean SST warming at the increase of the greenhouse gases, but the magnitude varies across the simulations between 1 and 2 K, which is largely attributable to the difference in the change of cloud amount and distribution. The models that simulate more SST warming show a greater increase in the net CRE due to reduced low cloud and increased incoming shortwave radiation, particularly over the regions of marine boundary layer in the subtropics. Selected best-performing models project a significant reduction in global-mean cloud amount of about -0.99% K-1 and net radiative warming of 0.46 W m-2 K-1, suggesting a role of positive feedback to global warming.

  16. Skin care products can aggravate epidermal function: studies in a murine model suggest a pathogenic role in sensitive skin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhengxiao; Hu, Lizhi; Elias, Peter M; Man, Mao-Qiang

    2018-02-01

    Sensitive skin is defined as a spectrum of unpleasant sensations in response to a variety of stimuli. However, only some skin care products provoke cutaneous symptoms in individuals with sensitive skin. Hence, it would be useful to identify products that could provoke cutaneous symptoms in individuals with sensitive skin. To assess whether vehicles, as well as certain branded skin care products, can alter epidermal function following topical applications to normal mouse skin. Following topical applications of individual vehicle or skin care product to C57BL/6J mice twice daily for 4 days, transepidermal water loss (TEWL) rates, stratum corneum (SC) hydration and skin surface pH were measured on treated versus untreated mouse skin with an MPA5 device and pH 900 pH meter. Our results show that all tested products induced abnormalities in epidermal functions of varying severity, including elevations in TEWL and skin surface pH, and reduced SC hydration. Our results suggest that mice can serve as a predictive model that could be used to evaluate the potential safety of skin care products in humans with sensitive skin. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Genomic, RNAseq, and Molecular Modeling Evidence Suggests That the Major Allergen Domain in Insects Evolved from a Homodimeric Origin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randall, Thomas A.; Perera, Lalith; London, Robert E.; Mueller, Geoffrey A.

    2013-01-01

    The major allergen domain (MA) is widely distributed in insects. The crystal structure of a single Bla g 1 MA revealed a novel protein fold in which the fundamental structure was a duplex of two subsequences (monomers), which had diverged over time. This suggested that the evolutionary origin of the MA structure may have been a homodimer of this smaller subsequence. Using publicly available genomic data, the distribution of the basic unit of this class of proteins was determined to better understand its evolutionary history. The duplication and divergence is examined at three distinct levels of resolution: 1) within the orders Diptera and Hymenoptera, 2) within one genus Drosophila, and 3) within one species Aedes aegypti. Within the family Culicidae, we have found two separate occurrences of monomers as independent genes. The organization of the gene family in A. aegypti shows a common evolutionary origin for its monomer and several closely related MAs. Molecular modeling of the A. aegypti monomer with the unique Bla g 1 fold confirms the distant evolutionary relationship and supports the feasibility of homodimer formation from a single monomer. RNAseq data for A. aegypti confirms that the monomer is expressed in the mosquito similar to other A. aegypti MAs after a blood meal. Together, these data support the contention that the detected monomer shares similar functional characteristics to related MAs in other insects. An extensive search for this domain outside of Insecta confirms that the MAs are restricted to insects. PMID:24253356

  18. Nonhomologous recombination between defective poliovirus and coxsackievirus genomes suggests a new model of genetic plasticity for picornaviruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmblat, Barbara; Jégouic, Sophie; Muslin, Claire; Blondel, Bruno; Joffret, Marie-Line; Delpeyroux, Francis

    2014-08-05

    Most of the circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs) implicated in poliomyelitis outbreaks in Madagascar have been shown to be recombinants between the type 2 poliovirus (PV) strain of the oral polio vaccine (Sabin 2) and another species C human enterovirus (HEV-C), such as type 17 coxsackie A virus (CA17) in particular. We studied intertypic genetic exchanges between PV and non-PV HEV-C by developing a recombination model, making it possible to rescue defective type 2 PV RNA genomes with a short deletion at the 3' end by the cotransfection of cells with defective or infectious CA17 RNAs. We isolated over 200 different PV/CA17 recombinants, using murine cells expressing the human PV receptor (PVR) and selecting viruses with PV capsids. We found some homologous (H) recombinants and, mostly, nonhomologous (NH) recombinants presenting duplications of parental sequences preferentially located in the regions encoding proteins 2A, 2B, and 3A. Short duplications appeared to be stable, whereas longer duplications were excised during passaging in cultured cells or after multiplication in PVR-transgenic mice, generating H recombinants with diverse sites of recombination. This suggests that NH recombination events may be a transient, intermediate step in the generation and selection of the fittest H recombinants. In addition to the classical copy-choice mechanism of recombination thought to generate mostly H recombinants, there may also be a modular mechanism of recombination, involving NH recombinant precursors, shaping the genomes of recombinant enteroviruses and other picornaviruses. Importance: The multiplication of circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs) in poorly immunized human populations can render these viruses pathogenic, causing poliomyelitis outbreaks. Most cVDPVs are intertypic recombinants between a poliovirus (PV) strain and another human enterovirus, such as type 17 coxsackie A viruses (CA17). For further studies of the genetic exchanges

  19. Radarsat Antarctic Mapping Project Digital Elevation Model, Version 2

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The high-resolution Radarsat Antarctic Mapping Project (RAMP) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) combines topographic data from a variety of sources to provide consistent...

  20. Automation of Safety Analysis with SysML Models Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This project was a small proof-of-concept case study, generating SysML model information as a side effect of safety analysis. A prototype FMEA Assistant was...

  1. Procedures and models for estimating preconstruction costs of highway projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-01

    This study presents data driven and component based PE cost prediction models by utilizing critical factors retrieved from ten years of historical project data obtained from ODOT roadway division. The study used factor analysis of covariance and corr...

  2. Numerical modeling in photonic crystals integrated technology: the COPERNICUS Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malaguti, Stefania; Armaroli, Andrea; Bellanca, Gaetano

    2011-01-01

    Photonic crystals will play a fundamental role in the future of optical communications. The relevance of the numerical modeling for the success of this technology is assessed by using some examples concerning the experience of the COPERNICUS Project.......Photonic crystals will play a fundamental role in the future of optical communications. The relevance of the numerical modeling for the success of this technology is assessed by using some examples concerning the experience of the COPERNICUS Project....

  3. DEVELOPMENT MODEL OF PATISSERIE PROJECT-BASED LEARNING

    OpenAIRE

    Ana Ana; Lutfhiyah Nurlaela

    2013-01-01

    The study aims to find a model of patisserie project-based learning with production approach that can improve effectiveness of patisserie learning. Delphi Technique, Cohen's Kappa and percentages of agreements were used to assess model of patisserie project based learning. Data collection techniques employed in the study were questionnaire, check list worksheet, observation, and interview sheets. Subjects were 13 lectures of expertise food and nutrition and 91 students of Food and Nutrition ...

  4. Modeling Change in Project Duration and Completion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wiltshire, Travis; Butner, Jonathan E.; Pirtle, Zachary

    2017-01-01

    In complex work domains and organizations, understanding scheduleing dynamics can ensure objectives are reached and delays are mitigated. In the current paper, we examine the scheduling dynamics for NASA’s Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1) activities. For this examination, we specifically modeled...

  5. A Systematic Approach to Modelling Change Processes in Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahim Motawa

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Modelling change processes within construction projects isessential to implement changes efficiently. Incomplete informationon the project variables at the early stages of projects leads toinadequate knowledge of future states and imprecision arisingfrom ambiguity in project parameters. This lack of knowledge isconsidered among the main source of changes in construction.Change identification and evaluation, in addition to predictingits impacts on project parameters, can help in minimising thedisruptive effects of changes. This paper presents a systematicapproach to modelling change process within construction projectsthat helps improve change identification and evaluation. Theapproach represents the key decisions required to implementchanges. The requirements of an effective change processare presented first. The variables defined for efficient changeassessment and diagnosis are then presented. Assessmentof construction changes requires an analysis for the projectcharacteristics that lead to change and also analysis of therelationship between the change causes and effects. The paperconcludes that, at the early stages of a project, projects with a highlikelihood of change occurrence should have a control mechanismover the project characteristics that have high influence on theproject. It also concludes, for the relationship between changecauses and effects, the multiple causes of change should bemodelled in a way to enable evaluating the change effects moreaccurately. The proposed approach is the framework for tacklingsuch conclusions and can be used for evaluating change casesdepending on the available information at the early stages ofconstruction projects.

  6. METHODS OF SELECTING THE EFFECTIVE MODELS OF BUILDINGS REPROFILING PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Александр Иванович МЕНЕЙЛЮК

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The article highlights the important task of project management in reprofiling of buildings. It is expedient to pay attention to selecting effective engineering solutions to reduce the duration and cost reduction at the project management in the construction industry. This article presents a methodology for the selection of efficient organizational and technical solutions for the reconstruction of buildings reprofiling. The method is based on a compilation of project variants in the program Microsoft Project and experimental statistical analysis using the program COMPEX. The introduction of this technique in the realigning of buildings allows choosing efficient models of projects, depending on the given constraints. Also, this technique can be used for various construction projects.

  7. Process simulation and parametric modeling for strategic project management

    CERN Document Server

    Morales, Peter J

    2013-01-01

    Process Simulation and Parametric Modeling for Strategic Project Management will offer CIOs, CTOs and Software Development Managers, IT Graduate Students an introduction to a set of technologies that will help them understand how to better plan software development projects, manage risk and have better insight into the complexities of the software development process.A novel methodology will be introduced that allows a software development manager to better plan and access risks in the early planning of a project.  By providing a better model for early software development estimation and softw

  8. Application of Projection Pursuit Model in Soilevaluation of Conservation Tillage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Junjing; Li, Hongwen

    This paper established a conservation tillage evaluation model based on projection pursuit to evaluate the soil composite achievement of conservation tillage. After optimizing the project direction, the multi-dimension data of the seven evaluation indices are synthesized to one dimension, and the author could evaluate each item with the projection data easily, which avoided the jamming of weight matrix. The results of the evaluation mode in Linfen, Shouyang and Linghai are accordant with the production, which indicated that the model was available and provided a new method or thought to evaluate the composite achievement of conservation tillage.

  9. Cash flow forecasting model for nuclear power projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Wei; Guo Jilin

    2002-01-01

    Cash flow forecasting is very important for owners and contractors of nuclear power projects to arrange the capital and to decrease the capital cost. The factors related to contractor cash flow forecasting are analyzed and a cash flow forecasting model is presented which is suitable for both contractors and owners. The model is efficiently solved using a cost-schedule data integration scheme described. A program is developed based on the model and verified with real project data. The result indicates that the model is efficient and effective

  10. Nonhomologous Recombination between Defective Poliovirus and Coxsackievirus Genomes Suggests a New Model of Genetic Plasticity for Picornaviruses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmblat, Barbara; Jégouic, Sophie; Muslin, Claire; Blondel, Bruno; Joffret, Marie-Line

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT Most of the circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs) implicated in poliomyelitis outbreaks in Madagascar have been shown to be recombinants between the type 2 poliovirus (PV) strain of the oral polio vaccine (Sabin 2) and another species C human enterovirus (HEV-C), such as type 17 coxsackie A virus (CA17) in particular. We studied intertypic genetic exchanges between PV and non-PV HEV-C by developing a recombination model, making it possible to rescue defective type 2 PV RNA genomes with a short deletion at the 3′ end by the cotransfection of cells with defective or infectious CA17 RNAs. We isolated over 200 different PV/CA17 recombinants, using murine cells expressing the human PV receptor (PVR) and selecting viruses with PV capsids. We found some homologous (H) recombinants and, mostly, nonhomologous (NH) recombinants presenting duplications of parental sequences preferentially located in the regions encoding proteins 2A, 2B, and 3A. Short duplications appeared to be stable, whereas longer duplications were excised during passaging in cultured cells or after multiplication in PVR-transgenic mice, generating H recombinants with diverse sites of recombination. This suggests that NH recombination events may be a transient, intermediate step in the generation and selection of the fittest H recombinants. In addition to the classical copy-choice mechanism of recombination thought to generate mostly H recombinants, there may also be a modular mechanism of recombination, involving NH recombinant precursors, shaping the genomes of recombinant enteroviruses and other picornaviruses. PMID:25096874

  11. Effects of climate model interdependency on the uncertainty quantification of extreme reinfall projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Madsen, H.; Rosbjerg, Dan

    The inherent uncertainty in climate models is one of the most important uncertainties in climate change impact studies. In recent years, several uncertainty quantification methods based on multi-model ensembles have been suggested. Most of these methods assume that the climate models...... are independent. This study investigates the validity of this assumption and its effects on the estimated probabilistic projections of the changes in the 95% quantile of wet days. The methodology is divided in two main parts. First, the interdependency of the ENSEMBLES RCMs is estimated using the methodology...... developed by Pennell and Reichler (2011). The results show that the projections from the ENSEMBLES RCMs cannot be assumed independent. This result is then used to estimate the uncertainty in climate model projections. A Bayesian approach has been developed using the procedure suggested by Tebaldi et al...

  12. Effects of climate model interdependency on the uncertainty quantification of extreme rainfall projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer, M. A.; Rosbjerg, Dan; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2017-01-01

    The inherent uncertainty in climate models is one of the most important uncertainties in climate change impact studies. In recent years, several uncertainty quantification methods based on multi-model ensembles have been suggested. Most of these methods assume that the climate models...... are independent. This study investigates the validity of this assumption and its effects on the estimated probabilistic projections of the changes in the 95% quantile of wet days. The methodology is divided in two main parts. First, the interdependency of the ENSEMBLES RCMs is estimated using the methodology...... developed by Pennell and Reichler (2011). The results show that the projections from the ENSEMBLES RCMs cannot be assumed independent. This result is then used to estimate the uncertainty in climate model projections. A Bayesian approach has been developed using the procedure suggested by Tebaldi et al...

  13. Projected Dipole Model for Quantum Plasmonics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yan, Wei; Wubs, Martijn; Mortensen, N. Asger

    2015-01-01

    as obtained with 1D quantum calculations, such as time-dependent density-functional theory (TDDFT), and is determined once and for all. The model can be applied in two and three dimensions to any system size that is tractable within classical electrodynamics, while capturing quantum plasmonic aspects...... of nonlocal response and a finite work function with TDDFT-level accuracy. Applying the theory to dimers, we find quantum corrections to the hybridization even in mesoscopic dimers, as long as the gap itself is subnanometric....

  14. Low modeled ozone production suggests underestimation of precursor emissions (especially NOx) in Europe

    OpenAIRE

    E. Oikonomakis; S. Aksoyoglu; G. Ciarelli; U. Baltensperger; A. S. H. Prévôt

    2018-01-01

    High surface ozone concentrations, which usually occur when photochemical ozone production takes place, pose a great risk to human health and vegetation. Air quality models are often used by policy makers as tools for the development of ozone mitigation strategies. However, the modeled ozone production is often not or not enough evaluated in many ozone modeling studies. The focus of this work is to evaluate the modeled ozone production in Europe indirectly, with the use of t...

  15. Theory, modeling, and integrated studies in the Arase (ERG) project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seki, Kanako; Miyoshi, Yoshizumi; Ebihara, Yusuke; Katoh, Yuto; Amano, Takanobu; Saito, Shinji; Shoji, Masafumi; Nakamizo, Aoi; Keika, Kunihiro; Hori, Tomoaki; Nakano, Shin'ya; Watanabe, Shigeto; Kamiya, Kei; Takahashi, Naoko; Omura, Yoshiharu; Nose, Masahito; Fok, Mei-Ching; Tanaka, Takashi; Ieda, Akimasa; Yoshikawa, Akimasa

    2018-02-01

    Understanding of underlying mechanisms of drastic variations of the near-Earth space (geospace) is one of the current focuses of the magnetospheric physics. The science target of the geospace research project Exploration of energization and Radiation in Geospace (ERG) is to understand the geospace variations with a focus on the relativistic electron acceleration and loss processes. In order to achieve the goal, the ERG project consists of the three parts: the Arase (ERG) satellite, ground-based observations, and theory/modeling/integrated studies. The role of theory/modeling/integrated studies part is to promote relevant theoretical and simulation studies as well as integrated data analysis to combine different kinds of observations and modeling. Here we provide technical reports on simulation and empirical models related to the ERG project together with their roles in the integrated studies of dynamic geospace variations. The simulation and empirical models covered include the radial diffusion model of the radiation belt electrons, GEMSIS-RB and RBW models, CIMI model with global MHD simulation REPPU, GEMSIS-RC model, plasmasphere thermosphere model, self-consistent wave-particle interaction simulations (electron hybrid code and ion hybrid code), the ionospheric electric potential (GEMSIS-POT) model, and SuperDARN electric field models with data assimilation. ERG (Arase) science center tools to support integrated studies with various kinds of data are also briefly introduced.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  16. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

    KAUST Repository

    Kravitz, Ben

    2011-01-31

    To evaluate the effects of stratospheric geoengineering with sulphate aerosols, we propose standard forcing scenarios to be applied to multiple climate models to compare their results and determine the robustness of their responses. Thus far, different modeling groups have used different forcing scenarios for both global warming and geoengineering, complicating the comparison of results. We recommend four experiments to explore the extent to which geoengineering might offset climate change projected in some of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 experiments. These experiments focus on stratospheric aerosols, but future experiments under this framework may focus on different means of geoengineering. © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society.

  17. Managing wildland fires: integrating weather models into fire projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anne M. Rosenthal; Francis Fujioka

    2004-01-01

    Flames from the Old Fire sweep through lands north of San Bernardino during late fall of 2003. Like many Southern California fires, the Old Fire consumed susceptible forests at the urban-wildland interface and spread to nearby city neighborhoods. By incorporating weather models into fire perimeter projections, scientist Francis Fujioka is improving fire modeling as a...

  18. Development and application of new quality model for software projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnavel, K; Dillibabu, R

    2014-01-01

    The IT industry tries to employ a number of models to identify the defects in the construction of software projects. In this paper, we present COQUALMO and its limitations and aim to increase the quality without increasing the cost and time. The computation time, cost, and effort to predict the residual defects are very high; this was overcome by developing an appropriate new quality model named the software testing defect corrective model (STDCM). The STDCM was used to estimate the number of remaining residual defects in the software product; a few assumptions and the detailed steps of the STDCM are highlighted. The application of the STDCM is explored in software projects. The implementation of the model is validated using statistical inference, which shows there is a significant improvement in the quality of the software projects.

  19. Applying a Hybrid MCDM Model for Six Sigma Project Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fu-Kwun Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Six Sigma is a project-driven methodology; the projects that provide the maximum financial benefits and other impacts to the organization must be prioritized. Project selection (PS is a type of multiple criteria decision making (MCDM problem. In this study, we present a hybrid MCDM model combining the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL technique, analytic network process (ANP, and the VIKOR method to evaluate and improve Six Sigma projects for reducing performance gaps in each criterion and dimension. We consider the film printing industry of Taiwan as an empirical case. The results show that our study not only can use the best project selection, but can also be used to analyze the gaps between existing performance values and aspiration levels for improving the gaps in each dimension and criterion based on the influential network relation map.

  20. Solid Waste Projection Model: Database (Version 1.4)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blackburn, C.; Cillan, T.

    1993-09-01

    The Solid Waste Projection Model (SWPM) system is an analytical tool developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC). The SWPM system provides a modeling and analysis environment that supports decisions in the process of evaluating various solid waste management alternatives. This document, one of a series describing the SWPM system, contains detailed information regarding the software and data structures utilized in developing the SWPM Version 1.4 Database. This document is intended for use by experienced database specialists and supports database maintenance, utility development, and database enhancement. Those interested in using the SWPM database should refer to the SWPM Database User's Guide. This document is available from the PNL Task M Project Manager (D. L. Stiles, 509-372-4358), the PNL Task L Project Manager (L. L. Armacost, 509-372-4304), the WHC Restoration Projects Section Manager (509-372-1443), or the WHC Waste Characterization Manager (509-372-1193)

  1. Adoption of Building Information Modelling in project planning risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mering, M. M.; Aminudin, E.; Chai, C. S.; Zakaria, R.; Tan, C. S.; Lee, Y. Y.; Redzuan, A. A.

    2017-11-01

    An efficient and effective risk management required a systematic and proper methodology besides knowledge and experience. However, if the risk management is not discussed from the starting of the project, this duty is notably complicated and no longer efficient. This paper presents the adoption of Building Information Modelling (BIM) in project planning risk management. The objectives is to identify the traditional risk management practices and its function, besides, determine the best function of BIM in risk management and investigating the efficiency of adopting BIM-based risk management during the project planning phase. In order to obtain data, a quantitative approach is adopted in this research. Based on data analysis, the lack of compliance with project requirements and failure to recognise risk and develop responses to opportunity are the risks occurred when traditional risk management is implemented. When using BIM in project planning, it works as the tracking of cost control and cash flow give impact on the project cycle to be completed on time. 5D cost estimation or cash flow modeling benefit risk management in planning, controlling and managing budget and cost reasonably. There were two factors that mostly benefit a BIM-based technology which were formwork plan with integrated fall plan and design for safety model check. By adopting risk management, potential risks linked with a project and acknowledging to those risks can be identified to reduce them to an acceptable extent. This means recognizing potential risks and avoiding threat by reducing their negative effects. The BIM-based risk management can enhance the planning process of construction projects. It benefits the construction players in various aspects. It is important to know the application of BIM-based risk management as it can be a lesson learnt to others to implement BIM and increase the quality of the project.

  2. Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golden, Heather E.; Knightes, Christopher D.; Conrads, Paul; Feaster, Toby D.; Davis, Gary M.; Benedict, Stephen T.; Bradley, Paul M.

    2013-01-01

    Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. An ensemble of watershed models was applied in the present study to simulate and evaluate the responses of hydrological and total Hg (THg) fluxes from the landscape to the watershed outlet and in-stream THg concentrations to contrasting climate change projections for a watershed in the southeastern coastal plain of the United States. Simulations were conducted under stationary atmospheric deposition and land cover conditions to explicitly evaluate the effect of projected precipitation and temperature on watershed Hg export (i.e., the flux of Hg at the watershed outlet). Based on downscaled inputs from 2 global circulation models that capture extremes of projected wet (Community Climate System Model, Ver 3 [CCSM3]) and dry (ECHAM4/HOPE-G [ECHO]) conditions for this region, watershed model simulation results suggest a decrease of approximately 19% in ensemble-averaged mean annual watershed THg fluxes using the ECHO climate-change model and an increase of approximately 5% in THg fluxes with the CCSM3 model. Ensemble-averaged mean annual ECHO in-stream THg concentrations increased 20%, while those of CCSM3 decreased by 9% between the baseline and projected simulation periods. Watershed model simulation results using both climate change models suggest that monthly watershed THg fluxes increase during the summer, when projected flow is higher than baseline conditions. The present study's multiple watershed model approach underscores the uncertainty associated with climate change response projections and their use in climate change management decisions. Thus, single-model predictions can be misleading, particularly in developmental stages of watershed Hg modeling.

  3. A CBA model of a hydro project in Sri Lanka

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morimoto, Risako; Hope, C. [Cambridge Univ. (United Kingdom). Judge Inst. of Management

    2004-07-01

    This study demonstrates an empirical application of a cost benefit analysis for hydro projects, which includes social and environmental as well as economic aspects. The model treats uncertain inputs by specifying them as probability distributions. A proposed hydro project in Sri Lanka is used as a case study. The study uses time variable discount rates related to economic growth and investigates the sensitivity of the net present value to the choice of a discount rate. (author)

  4. Cacao Intensification in Sulawesi: A Green Prosperity Model Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moriarty, K.; Elchinger, M.; Hill, G.; Katz, J.; Barnett, J.

    2014-09-01

    NREL conducted eight model projects for Millennium Challenge Corporation's (MCC) Compact with Indonesia. Green Prosperity, the largest project of the Compact, seeks to address critical constraints to economic growth while supporting the Government of Indonesia's commitment to a more sustainable, less carbon-intensive future. This study evaluates techniques to improve cacao farming in Sulawesi Indonesia with an emphasis on Farmer Field Schools and Cocoa Development Centers to educate farmers and for train the trainer programs. The study estimates the economic viability of cacao farming if smallholder implement techniques to increase yield as well as social and environmental impacts of the project.

  5. Modeling Manpower and Equipment Productivity in Tall Building Construction Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mudumbai Krishnaswamy, Parthasarathy; Rajiah, Murugasan; Vasan, Ramya

    2017-12-01

    Tall building construction projects involve two critical resources of manpower and equipment. Their usage, however, widely varies due to several factors affecting their productivity. Currently, no systematic study for estimating and increasing their productivity is available. What is prevalent is the use of empirical data, experience of similar projects and assumptions. As tall building projects are here to stay and increase, to meet the emerging demands in ever shrinking urban spaces, it is imperative to explore ways and means of scientific productivity models for basic construction activities: concrete, reinforcement, formwork, block work and plastering for the input of specific resources in a mixed environment of manpower and equipment usage. Data pertaining to 72 tall building projects in India were collected and analyzed. Then, suitable productivity estimation models were developed using multiple linear regression analysis and validated using independent field data. It is hoped that the models developed in the study will be useful for quantity surveyors, cost engineers and project managers to estimate productivity of resources in tall building projects.

  6. On reducibility and ergodicity of population projection matrix models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart; Carslake, David

    2010-01-01

    1. Population projection matrices (PPMs) are probably the most commonly used empirical population models. To be useful for predictive or prospective analyses, PPM models should generally be irreducible (the associated life cycle graph contains the necessary transition rates to facilitate pathways...... structure used in the population projection). In our sample of published PPMs, 15·6% are non-ergodic. 3. This presents a problem: reducible–ergodic models often defy biological rationale in their description of the life cycle but may or may not prove problematic for analysis as they often behave similarly...... to irreducible models. Reducible–non-ergodic models will usually defy biological rationale in their description of the both the life cycle and population dynamics, hence contravening most analytical methods. 4. We provide simple methods to evaluate reducibility and ergodicity of PPM models, present illustrative...

  7. A model of the environmental impacts of hydropower projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kemppainen, T.; Haemaelaeinen, I.

    1992-01-01

    The aim was to create a model of the effects of hydropower modernization and extension projects in Finland. To illustrate the effects of hydropower projects a checklist in the form of matrice was constructed. In this matrice all issues that could be significant in future hydropower projects were collected. Stable physical environmental changes are the starting-point for this matrice. The temporary change of hydropower constructions have also been under consideration. These are mainly environmental changes during construction. In chapter two the effects of hydropower modernization and extension projects physical environmental changes were examined. In chapter three the matrice was applied to some example cases. The cases were chosen to represent future hydropower projects. In addition these example cases represent urban areas, rural areas and uninhabited areas. The example cases were the extension of Tainionkoski hydropower plant at Vuoksi river, the modernization of Aeetsae power plant at Kokemaeenjoki river, the modernization of Stadsfors power plant at Lapuanjoki river in the centre of Uusikaarlepyy town and the construction of Kaitfors power plant at Perhonjoki river. Conclusions from usability of the model can be drawn on the ground of the example cases. The purpose of the model is to produce a checklist of estimated environmental effects in hydropower project of various kinds. Examination of issues within the model depends on local circumstances. Endangered animal and plant species, for example, can be studied and estimated only if endangered animal and plant species exist in the area of hydropower plant. Furthermore, the direction and extent of environmental effects depend on the local circumstances. The model is mainly a checklist of environmental effects caused by hydropower plant projects

  8. Modelling of Airship Flight Mechanics by the Projection Equivalent Method

    OpenAIRE

    Frantisek Jelenciak; Michael Gerke; Ulrich Borgolte

    2015-01-01

    This article describes the projection equivalent method (PEM) as a specific and relatively simple approach for the modelling of aircraft dynamics. By the PEM it is possible to obtain a mathematic al model of the aerodynamic forces and momentums acting on different kinds of aircraft during flight. For the PEM, it is a characteristic of it that - in principle - it provides an acceptable regression model of aerodynamic forces and momentums which exhibits reasonable and plausible behaviour from a...

  9. AeroCom INSITU Project: Comparing modeled and measured aerosol optical properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, Elisabeth; Schmeisser, Lauren; Schulz, Michael; Fiebig, Markus; Ogren, John; Bian, Huisheng; Chin, Mian; Easter, Richard; Ghan, Steve; Kokkola, Harri; Laakso, Anton; Myhre, Gunnar; Randles, Cynthia; da Silva, Arlindo; Stier, Phillip; Skeie, Ragnehild; Takemura, Toshihiko; van Noije, Twan; Zhang, Kai

    2016-04-01

    AeroCom, an open international collaboration of scientists seeking to improve global aerosol models, recently initiated a project comparing model output to in-situ, surface-based measurements of aerosol optical properties. The model/measurement comparison project, called INSITU, aims to evaluate the performance of a suite of AeroCom aerosol models with site-specific observational data in order to inform iterative improvements to model aerosol modules. Surface in-situ data has the unique property of being traceable to physical standards, which is an asset in accomplishing the overall goal of bettering the accuracy of aerosols processes and the predicative capability of global climate models. Here we compare dry, in-situ aerosol scattering and absorption data from ~75 surface, in-situ sites from various global aerosol networks (including NOAA, EUSAAR/ACTRIS and GAW) with a simulated optical properties from a suite of models participating in the AeroCom project. We report how well models reproduce aerosol climatologies for a variety of time scales, aerosol characteristics and behaviors (e.g., aerosol persistence and the systematic relationships between aerosol optical properties), and aerosol trends. Though INSITU is a multi-year endeavor, preliminary phases of the analysis suggest substantial model biases in absorption and scattering coefficients compared to surface measurements, though the sign and magnitude of the bias varies with location. Spatial patterns in the biases highlight model weaknesses, e.g., the inability of models to properly simulate aerosol characteristics at sites with complex topography. Additionally, differences in modeled and measured systematic variability of aerosol optical properties suggest that some models are not accurately capturing specific aerosol behaviors, for example, the tendency of in-situ single scattering albedo to decrease with decreasing aerosol extinction coefficient. The endgoal of the INSITU project is to identify specific

  10. The performance indicators of model projects. A special evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-11-01

    As a result of the acknowledgment of the key role of the Model Project concept in the Agency's Technical Co-operation Programme, the present review of the objectives of the model projects which are now in operation, was undertaken, as recommended by the Board of Governors, to determine at an early stage: the extent to which the present objectives have been defined in a measurable way; whether objectively verifiable performance indicators and success criteria had been identified for each project; whether mechanisms to obtain feedback on the achievements had been foreseen. The overall budget for the 23 model projects, as approved from 1994 to 1998, amounts to $32,557,560, of which 45% is funded by Technical Co-operation Fund. This represents an average investment of about $8 million per year, that is over 15% of the annual TC budget. The conceptual importance of the Model Project initiative, as well as the significant funds allocated to them, led the Secretariat to plan the methods to be used to determine their socio-economic impact. 1 tab

  11. A CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR IMPROVED PROJECT SELECTION AND PRIORITISATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Viljoen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Project portfolio management processes are often designed and operated as a series of stages (or project phases and gates. However, the flow of such a process is often slow, characterised by queues waiting for a gate decision and by repeated work from previous stages waiting for additional information or for re-processing. In this paper the authors propose a conceptual model that applies supply chain and constraint management principles to the project portfolio management process. An advantage of the proposed model is that it provides the ability to select and prioritise projects without undue changes to project schedules. This should result in faster flow through the system.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Prosesse om portefeuljes van projekte te bestuur word normaalweg ontwerp en bedryf as ’n reeks fases en hekke. Die vloei deur so ’n proses is dikwels stadig en word gekenmerk deur toue wat wag vir besluite by die hekke en ook deur herwerk van vorige fases wat wag vir verdere inligting of vir herprosessering. In hierdie artikel word ‘n konseptuele model voorgestel. Die model berus op die beginsels van voorsieningskettings sowel as van beperkingsbestuur, en bied die voordeel dat projekte geselekteer en geprioritiseer kan word sonder onnodige veranderinge aan projekskedules. Dit behoort te lei tot versnelde vloei deur die stelsel.

  12. Effects of climate model interdependency on the uncertainty quantification of extreme rainfall projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer, M. A.; Rosbjerg, Dan; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2017-01-01

    are independent. This study investigates the validity of this assumption and its effects on the estimated probabilistic projections of the changes in the 95% quantile of wet days. The methodology is divided in two main parts. First, the interdependency of the ENSEMBLES RCMs is estimated using the methodology...... developed by Pennell and Reichler (2011). The results show that the projections from the ENSEMBLES RCMs cannot be assumed independent. This result is then used to estimate the uncertainty in climate model projections. A Bayesian approach has been developed using the procedure suggested by Tebaldi et al...

  13. Heart Modeling, Computational Physiology and the IUPS Physiome Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Peter J.

    The Physiome Project of the International Union of Physiological Sciences (IUPS) is attempting to provide a comprehensive framework for modelling the human body using computational methods which can incorporate the biochemistry, biophysics and anatomy of cells, tissues and organs. A major goal of the project is to use computational modelling to analyse integrative biological function in terms of underlying structure and molecular mechanisms. To support that goal the project is developing XML markup languages (CellML & FieldML) for encoding models, and software tools for creating, visualizing and executing these models. It is also establishing web-accessible physiological databases dealing with model-related data at the cell, tissue, organ and organ system levels. Two major developments in current medicine are, on the one hand, the much publicised genomics (and soon proteomics) revolution and, on the other, the revolution in medical imaging in which the physiological function of the human body can be studied with a plethora of imaging devices such as MRI, CT, PET, ultrasound, electrical mapping, etc. The challenge for the Physiome Project is to link these two developments for an individual - to use complementary genomic and medical imaging data, together with computational modelling tailored to the anatomy, physiology and genetics of that individual, for patient-specific diagnosis and treatment.

  14. Low apparent quantum yield in Arctic plants suggests that terrestrial biosphere models will over estimate carbon assimilation at high latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, A.; Serbin, S.; Ely, K.; Wullschleger, S.

    2017-12-01

    Estimates of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) by terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) rely on accurate model representation of photosynthesis. In the Arctic, TBM uncertainty over GPP is the dominant driver of an uncertain Arctic carbon cycle. Previously we have shown that TBMs underestimate light saturated photosynthesis due to poor model representation of maximum carboxylation capacity and maximum electron transport. Here we extend this work to investigate model representation of the response of photosynthesis to irradiance. TBMs use an empirical relationship, typically a non-rectangular hyperbola, to estimate potential electron transport rate from incident irradiance. The key model inputs used to parameterize this formulation are; absorptance, quantum yield, and a curvature factor. TBMs show a high divergence in the response of photosynthesis to irradiance driven in part by variation in these parameters. In addition, most existing measurements used to parameterize TBMs have been made within a narrow temperature range (20-30°C) and the scarcity of data collected at low temperature has been highlighted as an important driver of model uncertainty at high latitudes. To address this issue we measured photosynthetic light response curves at 5 and 15°C and the leaf optical properties of six species growing on the Barrow Environmental Observatory, Barrow, Alaska. We determined leaf absorbtance, the convexity term, and apparent quantum yield. Our key finding was that measured apparent quantum yield was lower than model estimates, particularly at 5°C. Our results show that TBMs that rely on relatively high theoretical estimates of apparent quantum yield will likely overestimate carbon assimilation at low temperature and low irradiance.

  15. Low Energy Atomic Models Suggesting a Pilus Structure that could Account for Electrical Conductivity of Geobacter sulfurreducens Pili.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Ke; Malvankar, Nikhil S; Shu, Chuanjun; Martz, Eric; Lovley, Derek R; Sun, Xiao

    2016-03-22

    The metallic-like electrical conductivity of Geobacter sulfurreducens pili has been documented with multiple lines of experimental evidence, but there is only a rudimentary understanding of the structural features which contribute to this novel mode of biological electron transport. In order to determine if it was feasible for the pilin monomers of G. sulfurreducens to assemble into a conductive filament, theoretical energy-minimized models of Geobacter pili were constructed with a previously described approach, in which pilin monomers are assembled using randomized structural parameters and distance constraints. The lowest energy models from a specific group of predicted structures lacked a central channel, in contrast to previously existing pili models. In half of the no-channel models the three N-terminal aromatic residues of the pilin monomer are arranged in a potentially electrically conductive geometry, sufficiently close to account for the experimentally observed metallic like conductivity of the pili that has been attributed to overlapping pi-pi orbitals of aromatic amino acids. These atomic resolution models capable of explaining the observed conductive properties of Geobacter pili are a valuable tool to guide further investigation of the metallic-like conductivity of the pili, their role in biogeochemical cycling, and applications in bioenergy and bioelectronics.

  16. The Python Project: A Unique Model for Extending Research Opportunities to Undergraduate Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Pamela A.; Wall, Christopher; Luckey, Stephen W.; Langer, Stephen; Leinwand, Leslie A.

    2014-01-01

    Undergraduate science education curricula are traditionally composed of didactic instruction with a small number of laboratory courses that provide introductory training in research techniques. Research on learning methodologies suggests this model is relatively ineffective, whereas participation in independent research projects promotes enhanced…

  17. Advancing population ecology with integral projection models: a practical guide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Merow, Cory; Dahlgren, Johan; Metcall, C. Jessica E.

    2014-01-01

    Integral Projection Models (IPMs) use information on how an individual's state influences its vital rates - survival, growth and reproduction - to make population projections. IPMs are constructed from regression models predicting vital rates from state variables (e.g., size or age) and covariates...... a comprehensive guide, with extensive R code, for their construction. IPMs can be applied to any stage-structured population; here we illustrate IPMs for a series of plant life histories of increasing complexity and biological realism, highlighting the utility of various regression methods for capturing...

  18. Didactical suggestion for a Dynamic Hybrid Intelligent e-Learning Environment (DHILE) applying the PENTHA ID Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    dall'Acqua, Luisa

    2011-08-01

    The teleology of our research is to propose a solution to the request of "innovative, creative teaching", proposing a methodology to educate creative Students in a society characterized by multiple reference points and hyper dynamic knowledge, continuously subject to reviews and discussions. We apply a multi-prospective Instructional Design Model (PENTHA ID Model), defined and developed by our research group, which adopts a hybrid pedagogical approach, consisting of elements of didactical connectivism intertwined with aspects of social constructivism and enactivism. The contribution proposes an e-course structure and approach, applying the theoretical design principles of the above mentioned ID Model, describing methods, techniques, technologies and assessment criteria for the definition of lesson modes in an e-course.

  19. Bifurcation Analysis of an Existing Mathematical Model Reveals Novel Treatment Strategies and Suggests Potential Cure for Type 1 Diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Kenneth Hagde Mandrup; Ottesen, Johnny T.; Pociot, Flemming

    2014-01-01

    Type 1 diabetes is a disease with serious personal and socioeconomic consequences that has attracted the attention of modellers recently. But as models of this disease tend to be complicated, there has been only limited mathematical analysis to date. Here we address this problem by providing...... a bifurcation analysis of a previously published mathematical model for the early stages of type 1 diabetes in diabetes-prone NOD mice, which is based on the data available in the literature. We also show positivity and the existence of a family of attracting trapping regions in the positive 5D cone, converging...... towards a smaller trapping region, which is the intersection over the family. All these trapping regions are compact sets, and thus, practical weak persistence is guaranteed. We conclude our analysis by proposing 4 novel treatment strategies: increasing the phagocytic ability of resting macrophages...

  20. Multi-model-based Access Control in Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Hilbert

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available During the execution of large scale construction projects performed by Virtual Organizations (VO, relatively complex technical models have to be exchanged between the VO members. For linking the trade and transfer of these models, a so-called multi-model container format was developed. Considering the different skills and tasks of the involved partners, it is not necessary for them to know all the models in every technical detailing. Furthermore, the model size can lead to a delay in communication. In this paper an approach is presented for defining model cut-outs according to the current project context. Dynamic dependencies to the project context as well as static dependencies on the organizational structure are mapped in a context-sensitive rule. As a result, an approach for dynamic filtering of multi-models is obtained which ensures, together with a filtering service, that the involved VO members get a simplified view of complex multi-models as well as sufficient permissions depending on their tasks.

  1. The Timber Resource Inventory Model (TRIM): a projection model for timber supply and policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    P.L. Tedder; R.N. La Mont; J.C. Kincaid

    1987-01-01

    TRIM (Timber Resource Inventory Model) is a yield table projection system developed for timber supply projections and policy analysis. TRIM simulates timber growth, inventories, management and area changes, and removals over the projection period. Programs in the TRIM system, card-by-card descriptions of required inputs, table formats, and sample results are presented...

  2. An anatomy of the projected North Atlantic warming hole in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menary, Matthew B.; Wood, Richard A.

    2018-04-01

    Global mean surface air temperature has increased over the past century and climate models project this trend to continue. However, the pattern of change is not homogeneous. Of particular interest is the subpolar North Atlantic, which has cooled in recent years and is projected to continue to warm less rapidly than the global mean. This is often termed the North Atlantic warming hole (WH). In climate model projections, the development of the WH is concomitant with a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Here, we further investigate the possible link between the AMOC and WH and the competing drivers of vertical mixing and surface heat fluxes. Across a large ensemble of 41 climate models we find that the spatial structure of the WH varies considerably from model to model but is generally upstream of the simulated deep water formation regions. A heat budget analysis suggests the formation of the WH is related to changes in ocean heat transport. Although the models display a plethora of AMOC mean states, they generally predict a weakening and shallowing of the AMOC also consistent with the evolving depth structure of the WH. A lagged regression analysis during the WH onset phase suggests that reductions in wintertime mixing lead a weakening of the AMOC by 5 years in turn leading initiation of the WH by 5 years. Inter-model differences in the evolution and structure of the WH are likely to lead to somewhat different projected climate impacts in nearby Europe and North America.

  3. An anatomy of the projected North Atlantic warming hole in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menary, Matthew B.; Wood, Richard A.

    2017-07-01

    Global mean surface air temperature has increased over the past century and climate models project this trend to continue. However, the pattern of change is not homogeneous. Of particular interest is the subpolar North Atlantic, which has cooled in recent years and is projected to continue to warm less rapidly than the global mean. This is often termed the North Atlantic warming hole (WH). In climate model projections, the development of the WH is concomitant with a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Here, we further investigate the possible link between the AMOC and WH and the competing drivers of vertical mixing and surface heat fluxes. Across a large ensemble of 41 climate models we find that the spatial structure of the WH varies considerably from model to model but is generally upstream of the simulated deep water formation regions. A heat budget analysis suggests the formation of the WH is related to changes in ocean heat transport. Although the models display a plethora of AMOC mean states, they generally predict a weakening and shallowing of the AMOC also consistent with the evolving depth structure of the WH. A lagged regression analysis during the WH onset phase suggests that reductions in wintertime mixing lead a weakening of the AMOC by 5 years in turn leading initiation of the WH by 5 years. Inter-model differences in the evolution and structure of the WH are likely to lead to somewhat different projected climate impacts in nearby Europe and North America.

  4. The study on stage financing model of IT project investment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Si-hua; Xu, Sheng-hua; Lee, Changhoon; Xiong, Neal N; He, Wei

    2014-01-01

    Stage financing is the basic operation of venture capital investment. In investment, usually venture capitalists use different strategies to obtain the maximum returns. Due to its advantages to reduce the information asymmetry and agency cost, stage financing is widely used by venture capitalists. Although considerable attentions are devoted to stage financing, very little is known about the risk aversion strategies of IT projects. This paper mainly addresses the problem of risk aversion of venture capital investment in IT projects. Based on the analysis of characteristics of venture capital investment of IT projects, this paper introduces a real option pricing model to measure the value brought by the stage financing strategy and design a risk aversion model for IT projects. Because real option pricing method regards investment activity as contingent decision, it helps to make judgment on the management flexibility of IT projects and then make a more reasonable evaluation about the IT programs. Lastly by being applied to a real case, it further illustrates the effectiveness and feasibility of the model.

  5. Comparative modeling and molecular dynamics suggest high carboxylase activity of the Cyanobium sp. CACIAM14 RbcL protein.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siqueira, Andrei Santos; Lima, Alex Ranieri Jerônimo; Dall'Agnol, Leonardo Teixeira; de Azevedo, Juliana Simão Nina; da Silva Gonçalves Vianez, João Lídio; Gonçalves, Evonnildo Costa

    2016-03-01

    Rubisco catalyzes the first step reaction in the carbon fixation pathway, bonding atmospheric CO2/O2 to ribulose 1,5-bisphosphate; it is therefore considered one of the most important enzymes in the biosphere. Genetic modifications to increase the carboxylase activity of rubisco are a subject of great interest to agronomy and biotechnology, since this could increase the productivity of biomass in plants, algae and cyanobacteria and give better yields in crops and biofuel production. Thus, the aim of this study was to characterize in silico the catalytic domain of the rubisco large subunit (rbcL gene) of Cyanobium sp. CACIAM14, and identify target sites to improve enzyme affinity for ribulose 1,5-bisphosphate. A three-dimensional model was built using MODELLER 9.14, molecular dynamics was used to generate a 100 ns trajectory by AMBER12, and the binding free energy was calculated using MM-PBSA, MM-GBSA and SIE methods with alanine scanning. The model obtained showed characteristics of form-I rubisco, with 15 beta sheets and 19 alpha helices, and maintained the highly conserved catalytic site encompassing residues Lys175, Lys177, Lys201, Asp203, and Glu204. The binding free energy of the enzyme-substrate complexation of Cyanobium sp. CACIAM14 showed values around -10 kcal mol(-1) using the SIE method. The most important residues for the interaction with ribulose 1,5-bisphosphate were Arg295 followed by Lys334. The generated model was successfully validated, remaining stable during the whole simulation, and demonstrated characteristics of enzymes with high carboxylase activity. The binding analysis revealed candidates for directed mutagenesis sites to improve rubisco's affinity.

  6. Synthetic biology between challenges and risks: suggestions for a model of governance and a regulatory framework, based on fundamental rights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colussi, Ilaria Anna

    2013-01-01

    This paper deals with the emerging synthetic biology, its challenges and risks, and tries to design a model for the governance and regulation of the field. The model is called of "prudent vigilance" (inspired by the report about synthetic biology, drafted by the U.S. Presidential Commission on Bioethics, 2010), and it entails (a) an ongoing and periodically revised process of assessment and management of all the risks and concerns, and (b) the adoption of policies - taken through "hard law" and "soft law" sources - that are based on the principle of proportionality (among benefits and risks), on a reasonable balancing between different interests and rights at stake, and are oriented by a constitutional frame, which is represented by the protection of fundamental human rights emerging in the field of synthetic biology (right to life, right to health, dignity, freedom of scientific research, right to environment). After the theoretical explanation of the model, its operability is "checked", by considering its application with reference to only one specific risk brought up by synthetic biology - biosecurity risk, i.e. the risk of bioterrorism.

  7. Analysis and modeling of heat-labile enterotoxins of Escherichia coli suggests a novel space with insights into receptor preference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishna Raja, M; Ghosh, Asit Ranjan; Vino, S; Sajitha Lulu, S

    2015-01-01

    Features of heat-labile enterotoxins of Escherichia coli which make them fit to use as novel receptors for antidiarrheals are not completely explored. Data-set of 14 different serovars of enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli producing heat-labile toxins were taken from NCBI Genbank database and used in the study. Sequence analysis showed mutations in different subunits and also at their interface residues. As these toxins lack crystallography structures, homology modeling using Modeller 9.11 led to the structural approximation for the E. coli producing heat-labile toxins. Interaction of modeled toxin subunits with proanthocyanidin, an antidiarrheal showed several strong hydrogen bonding interactions at the cost of minimized energy. The hits were subsequently characterized by molecular dynamics simulation studies to monitor their binding stabilities. This study looks into novel space where the ligand can choose the receptor preference not as a whole but as an individual subunit. Mutation at interface residues and interaction among subunits along with the binding of ligand to individual subunits would help to design a non-toxic labile toxin and also to improve the therapeutics.

  8. Genetic and Functional Analyses of SHANK2 Mutations Suggest a Multiple Hit Model of Autism Spectrum Disorders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leblond, Claire S.; Heinrich, Jutta; Delorme, Richard; Proepper, Christian; Betancur, Catalina; Huguet, Guillaume; Konyukh, Marina; Chaste, Pauline; Ey, Elodie; Rastam, Maria; Anckarsäter, Henrik; Nygren, Gudrun; Gillberg, I. Carina; Melke, Jonas; Toro, Roberto; Regnault, Beatrice; Fauchereau, Fabien; Mercati, Oriane; Lemière, Nathalie; Skuse, David; Poot, Martin; Holt, Richard; Monaco, Anthony P.; Järvelä, Irma; Kantojärvi, Katri; Vanhala, Raija; Curran, Sarah; Collier, David A.; Bolton, Patrick; Chiocchetti, Andreas; Klauck, Sabine M.; Poustka, Fritz; Freitag, Christine M.; Waltes, Regina; Kopp, Marnie; Duketis, Eftichia; Bacchelli, Elena; Minopoli, Fiorella; Ruta, Liliana; Battaglia, Agatino; Mazzone, Luigi; Maestrini, Elena; Sequeira, Ana F.; Oliveira, Barbara; Vicente, Astrid; Oliveira, Guiomar; Pinto, Dalila; Scherer, Stephen W.; Zelenika, Diana; Delepine, Marc; Lathrop, Mark; Bonneau, Dominique; Guinchat, Vincent; Devillard, Françoise; Assouline, Brigitte; Mouren, Marie-Christine; Leboyer, Marion; Gillberg, Christopher; Boeckers, Tobias M.; Bourgeron, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    Autism spectrum disorders (ASD) are a heterogeneous group of neurodevelopmental disorders with a complex inheritance pattern. While many rare variants in synaptic proteins have been identified in patients with ASD, little is known about their effects at the synapse and their interactions with other genetic variations. Here, following the discovery of two de novo SHANK2 deletions by the Autism Genome Project, we identified a novel 421 kb de novo SHANK2 deletion in a patient with autism. We then sequenced SHANK2 in 455 patients with ASD and 431 controls and integrated these results with those reported by Berkel et al. 2010 (n = 396 patients and n = 659 controls). We observed a significant enrichment of variants affecting conserved amino acids in 29 of 851 (3.4%) patients and in 16 of 1,090 (1.5%) controls (P = 0.004, OR = 2.37, 95% CI = 1.23–4.70). In neuronal cell cultures, the variants identified in patients were associated with a reduced synaptic density at dendrites compared to the variants only detected in controls (P = 0.0013). Interestingly, the three patients with de novo SHANK2 deletions also carried inherited CNVs at 15q11–q13 previously associated with neuropsychiatric disorders. In two cases, the nicotinic receptor CHRNA7 was duplicated and in one case the synaptic translation repressor CYFIP1 was deleted. These results strengthen the role of synaptic gene dysfunction in ASD but also highlight the presence of putative modifier genes, which is in keeping with the “multiple hit model” for ASD. A better knowledge of these genetic interactions will be necessary to understand the complex inheritance pattern of ASD. PMID:22346768

  9. Incentive Model Based on Cooperative Relationship in Sustainable Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangdong Wu

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Considering the cooperative relationship between owners and contractors in sustainable construction projects, as well as the synergistic effects created by cooperative behaviors, a cooperative incentive model was developed using game theory. The model was formulated and analyzed under both non-moral hazard and moral hazard situations. Then, a numerical simulation and example were proposed to verify the conclusions derived from the model. The results showed that the synergistic effect increases the input intensity of one party’s resource transfer into the increase of marginal utility of the other party, thus the owner and contractor are willing to enhance their levels of effort. One party’s optimal benefit allocation coefficient is positively affected by its own output efficiency, and negatively affected by the other party’s output efficiency. The effort level and expected benefits of the owner and contractor can be improved by enhancing the cooperative relationship between the two parties, as well as enhancing the net benefits of a sustainable construction project. The synergistic effect cannot lower the negative effect of moral hazard behaviors during the implementation of sustainable construction projects. Conversely, the higher levels of the cooperative relationship, the wider the gaps amongst the optimal values under both non-moral hazard and moral hazard situations for the levels of effort, expected benefits and net project benefits. Since few studies to date have emphasized the effects of cooperative relationship on sustainable construction projects, this study constructed a game-based incentive model to bridge the gaps. This study contributes significant theoretical and practical insights into the management of cooperation amongst stakeholders, and into the enhancement of the overall benefits of sustainable construction projects.

  10. Project W-320 thermal hydraulic model benchmarking and baselining

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sathyanarayana, K.

    1998-01-01

    Project W-320 will be retrieving waste from Tank 241-C-106 and transferring the waste to Tank 241-AY-102. Waste in both tanks must be maintained below applicable thermal limits during and following the waste transfer. Thermal hydraulic process control models will be used for process control of the thermal limits. This report documents the process control models and presents a benchmarking of the models with data from Tanks 241-C-106 and 241-AY-102. Revision 1 of this report will provide a baselining of the models in preparation for the initiation of sluicing

  11. Cardiac cell modelling: Observations from the heart of the cardiac physiome project

    KAUST Repository

    Fink, Martin

    2011-01-01

    In this manuscript we review the state of cardiac cell modelling in the context of international initiatives such as the IUPS Physiome and Virtual Physiological Human Projects, which aim to integrate computational models across scales and physics. In particular we focus on the relationship between experimental data and model parameterisation across a range of model types and cellular physiological systems. Finally, in the context of parameter identification and model reuse within the Cardiac Physiome, we suggest some future priority areas for this field. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

  12. Geospatial application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. C. Flanagan; J. R. Frankenberger; T. A. Cochrane; C. S. Renschler; W. J. Elliot

    2011-01-01

    The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model is a process-based technology for prediction of soil erosion by water at hillslope profile, field, and small watershed scales. In particular, WEPP utilizes observed or generated daily climate inputs to drive the surface hydrology processes (infiltration, runoff, ET) component, which subsequently impacts the rest of the...

  13. Application of Markovian model to school enrolment projection ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Application of Markovian model to school enrolment projection process. VU Ekhosuehi, AA Osagiede. Abstract. No Abstract. Global Journal of Mathematical Sciences Vol. 5(1) 2006: 9-16. Full Text: EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT.

  14. Accessing Curriculum Through Technology Tools (ACTTT): A Model Development Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daytner, Katrina M.; Johanson, Joyce; Clark, Letha; Robinson, Linda

    2012-01-01

    Accessing Curriculum Through Technology Tools (ACTTT), a project funded by the U.S. Office of Special Education Programs (OSEP), developed and tested a model designed to allow children in early elementary school, including those "at risk" and with disabilities, to better access, participate in, and benefit from the general curriculum.…

  15. МULTI-STAKEHOLDER MODEL OF EDUCATION PROJECT QUALITY MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Юлия Юрьевна ГУСЕВА

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of approaches to the definition of higher education projects’ stakeholders is conducted. A model of education project quality management with the influence of stakeholders is formed. A mechanism of recognition of new groups of project’s stakeholders on the basis of set theory is offered.

  16. Identification of linear error-models with projected dynamical systems

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krejčí, Pavel; Kuhnen, K.

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 10, č. 1 (2004), s. 59-91 ISSN 1387-3954 Keywords : identification * error models * projected dynamical systems Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.292, year: 2004 http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a713682517

  17. Project Physics Text 5, Models of the Atom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA. Harvard Project Physics.

    Basic atomic theories are presented in this fifth unit of the Project Physics text for use by senior high students. Chemical basis of atomic models in the early years of the 18th Century is discussed n connection with Dalton's theory, atomic properties, and periodic tables. The discovery of electrons is described by using cathode rays, Millikan's…

  18. Student Success in College Composition through the Puente Project Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaffe, Barbara

    Much can be learned from California's Puente Project Model that would help students' success in classrooms as well as in college in general, and in their daily lives. Puente, which means "bridge" in Spanish, began in 1982 at Chabot College in northern California and is now in 38 colleges and 19 high schools statewide. Originally designed…

  19. Predicting Flu Season Requirements: An Undergraduate Modeling Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramlich, Gary R., II; Braunstein Fierson, Janet L.; Wright, J. Adam

    2010-01-01

    This project was designed to be used in a freshman calculus class whose students had already been introduced to logistic functions and basic data modeling techniques. It need not be limited to such an audience, however; it has also been implemented in a topics in mathematics class for college upperclassmen. Originally intended to be presented in…

  20. Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Project Strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bader, D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-09-18

    The E3SM project will assert and maintain an international scientific leadership position in the development of Earth system and climate models at the leading edge of scientific knowledge and computational capabilities. With its collaborators, it will demonstrate its leadership by using these models to achieve the goal of designing, executing, and analyzing climate and Earth system simulations that address the most critical scientific questions for the nation and DOE.

  1. A financing model to solve financial barriers for implementing green building projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sanghyo; Lee, Baekrae; Kim, Juhyung; Kim, Jaejun

    2013-01-01

    Along with the growing interest in greenhouse gas reduction, the effect of greenhouse gas energy reduction from implementing green buildings is gaining attention. The government of the Republic of Korea has set green growth as its paradigm for national development, and there is a growing interest in energy saving for green buildings. However, green buildings may have financial barriers that have high initial construction costs and uncertainties about future project value. Under the circumstances, governmental support to attract private funding is necessary to implement green building projects. The objective of this study is to suggest a financing model for facilitating green building projects with a governmental guarantee based on Certified Emission Reduction (CER). In this model, the government provides a guarantee for the increased costs of a green building project in return for CER. And this study presents the validation of the model as well as feasibility for implementing green building project. In addition, the suggested model assumed governmental guarantees for the increased cost, but private guarantees seem to be feasible as well because of the promising value of the guarantee from CER. To do this, certification of Clean Development Mechanisms (CDMs) for green buildings must be obtained.

  2. A Financing Model to Solve Financial Barriers for Implementing Green Building Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Baekrae; Kim, Juhyung; Kim, Jaejun

    2013-01-01

    Along with the growing interest in greenhouse gas reduction, the effect of greenhouse gas energy reduction from implementing green buildings is gaining attention. The government of the Republic of Korea has set green growth as its paradigm for national development, and there is a growing interest in energy saving for green buildings. However, green buildings may have financial barriers that have high initial construction costs and uncertainties about future project value. Under the circumstances, governmental support to attract private funding is necessary to implement green building projects. The objective of this study is to suggest a financing model for facilitating green building projects with a governmental guarantee based on Certified Emission Reduction (CER). In this model, the government provides a guarantee for the increased costs of a green building project in return for CER. And this study presents the validation of the model as well as feasibility for implementing green building project. In addition, the suggested model assumed governmental guarantees for the increased cost, but private guarantees seem to be feasible as well because of the promising value of the guarantee from CER. To do this, certification of Clean Development Mechanisms (CDMs) for green buildings must be obtained. PMID:24376379

  3. Global models of ant diversity suggest regions where new discoveries are most likely are under disproportionate deforestation threat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guénard, Benoit; Weiser, Michael D; Dunn, Robert R

    2012-05-08

    Most of the described and probably undescribed species on Earth are insects. Global models of species diversity rarely focus on insects and none attempt to address unknown, undescribed diversity. We assembled a database representing about 13,000 records for ant generic distribution from over 350 regions that cover much of the globe. Based on two models of diversity and endemicity, we identified regions where our knowledge of ant diversity is most limited, regions we have called "hotspots of discovery." A priori, such regions might be expected to be remote and untouched. Instead, we found that the hotspots of discovery are also the regions in which biodiversity is the most threatened by habitat destruction. Our results not only highlight the immediate need for conservation of the remaining natural habitats in these regions, but also the extent to which, by focusing on well-known groups such as vertebrates, we may fail to conserve the far greater diversity of the smaller species yet to be found.

  4. Modelling of project cash flow on construction projects in Malang city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djatmiko, Bambang

    2017-09-01

    Contractors usually prepare a project cash flow (PCF) on construction projects. The flow of cash in and cash out within a construction project may vary depending on the owner, contract documents, and construction service providers who have their own authority. Other factors affecting the PCF are down payment, termyn, progress schedule, material schedule, equipment schedule, manpower schedules, and wages of workers and subcontractors. This study aims to describe the cash inflow and cash outflow based on the empirical data obtained from contractors, develop a PCF model based on Halpen & Woodhead's PCF model, and investigate whether or not there is a significant difference between the Halpen & Woodhead's PCF model and the empirical PCF model. Based on the researcher's observation, the PCF management has never been implemented by the contractors in Malang in serving their clients (owners). The research setting is in Malang City because physical development in all field and there are many new construction service providers. The findings in this current study are summarised as follows: 1) Cash in included current assets (20%), owner's down payment (20%), termyin I (5%-25%), termyin II (20%), termyin III (25%), termyin IV (25%) and retention (5%). Cash out included direct cost (65%), indirect cost (20%), and profit + informal cost(15%), 2)the construction work involving the empirical PCF model in this study was started with the funds obtained from DP or current assets and 3) The two models bear several similarities in the upward trends of direct cost, indirect cost, Pro Ic, progress billing, and S-curve. The difference between the two models is the occurrence of overdraft in the Halpen and Woodhead's PCF model only.

  5. Long-term durum wheat monoculture: modelling and future projection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ettore Bernardoni

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The potential effects of future climate change on grain production of a winter durum wheat cropping system were investigated. Based on future climate change projections, derived from a statistical downscaling process applied to the HadCM3 general circulation model and referred to two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B1, the response on yield and aboveground biomass (AGB and the variation in total organic carbon (TOC were explored. The software used in this work is an hybrid dynamic simulation model able to simulate, under different pedoclimatic conditions, the processes involved in cropping system such as crop growth and development, water and nitrogen balance. It implements different approaches in order to ensure accurate simulation of the mainprocess related to soil-crop-atmosphere continuum.The model was calibrated using soil data, crop yield, AGB and phenology coming from a long-term experiment, located in Apulia region. The calibration was performed using data collected in the period 1978–1990; validation was carried out on the 1991–2009 data. Phenology simulation was sufficiently accurate, showing some limitation only in predicting the physiological maturity. Yields and AGBs were predicted with an acceptable accuracy during both calibration and validation. CRM resulted always close to optimum value, EF in every case scored positive value, the value of index r2 was good, although in some cases values lower than 0.6 were calculated. Slope of the linear regression equation between measured and simulated values was always close to 1, indicating an overall good performance of the model. Both future climate scenarios led to a general increase in yields but a slightly decrease in AGB values. Data showed variations in the total production and yield among the different periods due to the climate variation. TOC evolution suggests that the combination of temperature and precipitation is the main factor affecting TOC variation under future scenarios

  6. Paired octamer rings of retinoschisin suggest a junctional model for cell–cell adhesion in the retina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolun, Gökhan; Vijayasarathy, Camasamudram; Huang, Rick; Zeng, Yong; Li, Yan; Steven, Alasdair C.; Sieving, Paul A.

    2016-01-01

    Retinoschisin (RS1) is involved in cell–cell junctions in the retina, but is unique among known cell-adhesion proteins in that it is a soluble secreted protein. Loss-of-function mutations in RS1 lead to early vision impairment in young males, called X-linked retinoschisis. The disease is characterized by separation of inner retinal layers and disruption of synaptic signaling. Using cryo-electron microscopy, we report the structure at 4.1 Å, revealing double octamer rings not observed before. Each subunit is composed of a discoidin domain and a small N-terminal (RS1) domain. The RS1 domains occupy the centers of the rings, but are not required for ring formation and are less clearly defined, suggesting mobility. We determined the structure of the discoidin rings, consistent with known intramolecular and intermolecular disulfides. The interfaces internal to and between rings feature residues implicated in X-linked retinoschisis, indicating the importance of correct assembly. Based on this structure, we propose that RS1 couples neighboring membranes together through octamer–octamer contacts, perhaps modulated by interactions with other membrane components. PMID:27114531

  7. Project Finance Model for Small Contractors in USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jawahar Nesan

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Construction projects do not require a large capital outlay but a large working capital to start up the project. Unfortunately, for small contractors there are very limited options available from the banks or other lending institutions to cover this large working capital requirement in the absence of sufficient collateral. The “Project Finance” method presented in this paper is recommended as the most effective method for small contractors in the United States. The problems of small and start up contractors in funding their projects have been little addressed in the literature. The current financing practices were observed through both the literature review and interviews with contractors and bankers in the western Michigan area and subsequently a system has been proposed which could help a small start-up company seeking higher growth. The growth rates that can be achieved using the project finance system in contrast to the traditional “line of credit” arrangements as illustrated in this paper show that the project finance model is beneficial.

  8. Comparative analysis of epidermal differentiation genes of crocodilians suggests new models for the evolutionary origin of avian feather proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holthaus, Karin Brigit; Strasser, Bettina; Lachner, Julia; Sukseree, Supawadee; Sipos, Wolfgang; Weissenbacher, Anton; Tschachler, Erwin; Alibardi, Lorenzo; Eckhart, Leopold

    2018-02-12

    The epidermis of amniotes forms a protective barrier against the environment and the differentiation program of keratinocytes, the main cell type in the epidermis, has undergone specific alterations in the course of adaptation of amniotes to a broad variety of environments and lifestyles. The epidermal differentiation complex (EDC) is a cluster of genes expressed at late stages of keratinocyte differentiation in both sauropsids and mammals. In the present study we identified and analyzed the crocodilian equivalent of the EDC. The gene complement of the EDC of both the American alligator and the saltwater crocodile were determined by comparative genomics, de novo gene prediction and identification of EDC transcripts in published transcriptome data. We found that crocodilians have an organization of the EDC similar to that of their closest living relatives, the birds, with which they form the clade Archosauria. Notable differences include the specific expansion of a subfamily of EDC genes in crocodilians and the loss of distinct ancestral EDC genes in birds. Identification and comparative analysis of crocodilian orthologs of avian feather proteins suggest that the latter evolved by cooption and sequence modification of ancestral EDC genes, and that the amplification of an internal highly cysteine-enriched amino acid sequence motif gave rise to the feather component Epidermal Differentiation Cysteine Rich Protein (EDCRP) in the avian lineage. Thus, sequence diversification of EDC genes contributed to the evolutionary divergence of the crocodilian and avian integuments. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

  9. Twisted sigma-model solitons on the quantum projective line

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landi, Giovanni

    2018-04-01

    On the configuration space of projections in a noncommutative algebra, and for an automorphism of the algebra, we use a twisted Hochschild cocycle for an action functional and a twisted cyclic cocycle for a topological term. The latter is Hochschild-cohomologous to the former and positivity in twisted Hochschild cohomology results into a lower bound for the action functional. While the equations for the critical points are rather involved, the use of the positivity and the bound by the topological term lead to self-duality equations (thus yielding twisted noncommutative sigma-model solitons, or instantons). We present explicit nontrivial solutions on the quantum projective line.

  10. Models for project management in 2016 Olympic Games

    OpenAIRE

    Sousa, M. J.; Lima, F.; Martins, J. R.

    2016-01-01

    The Olympic Games are the major sports event on the planet gathering people for all over the world and integrating several kind of resources that need to be managed in order to achieve efficiency and the sustainability of the event. The research question of this paper is “Which project management business model best fit a mega event like the 2016 Olympic Games?” The organizations which participate in the Olympic Games project management in Rio are under the pressure of external scenarios of u...

  11. Platypus globin genes and flanking loci suggest a new insertional model for beta-globin evolution in birds and mammals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Warren Wesley C

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Vertebrate alpha (α- and beta (β-globin gene families exemplify the way in which genomes evolve to produce functional complexity. From tandem duplication of a single globin locus, the α- and β-globin clusters expanded, and then were separated onto different chromosomes. The previous finding of a fossil β-globin gene (ω in the marsupial α-cluster, however, suggested that duplication of the α-β cluster onto two chromosomes, followed by lineage-specific gene loss and duplication, produced paralogous α- and β-globin clusters in birds and mammals. Here we analyse genomic data from an egg-laying monotreme mammal, the platypus (Ornithorhynchus anatinus, to explore haemoglobin evolution at the stem of the mammalian radiation. Results The platypus α-globin cluster (chromosome 21 contains embryonic and adult α- globin genes, a β-like ω-globin gene, and the GBY globin gene with homology to cytoglobin, arranged as 5'-ζ-ζ'-αD-α3-α2-α1-ω-GBY-3'. The platypus β-globin cluster (chromosome 2 contains single embryonic and adult globin genes arranged as 5'-ε-β-3'. Surprisingly, all of these globin genes were expressed in some adult tissues. Comparison of flanking sequences revealed that all jawed vertebrate α-globin clusters are flanked by MPG-C16orf35 and LUC7L, whereas all bird and mammal β-globin clusters are embedded in olfactory genes. Thus, the mammalian α- and β-globin clusters are orthologous to the bird α- and β-globin clusters respectively. Conclusion We propose that α- and β-globin clusters evolved from an ancient MPG-C16orf35-α-β-GBY-LUC7L arrangement 410 million years ago. A copy of the original β (represented by ω in marsupials and monotremes was inserted into an array of olfactory genes before the amniote radiation (>315 million years ago, then duplicated and diverged to form orthologous clusters of β-globin genes with different expression profiles in different lineages.

  12. Platypus globin genes and flanking loci suggest a new insertional model for beta-globin evolution in birds and mammals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Vidushi S; Cooper, Steven J B; Deakin, Janine E; Fulton, Bob; Graves, Tina; Warren, Wesley C; Wilson, Richard K; Graves, Jennifer A M

    2008-07-25

    Vertebrate alpha (alpha)- and beta (beta)-globin gene families exemplify the way in which genomes evolve to produce functional complexity. From tandem duplication of a single globin locus, the alpha- and beta-globin clusters expanded, and then were separated onto different chromosomes. The previous finding of a fossil beta-globin gene (omega) in the marsupial alpha-cluster, however, suggested that duplication of the alpha-beta cluster onto two chromosomes, followed by lineage-specific gene loss and duplication, produced paralogous alpha- and beta-globin clusters in birds and mammals. Here we analyse genomic data from an egg-laying monotreme mammal, the platypus (Ornithorhynchus anatinus), to explore haemoglobin evolution at the stem of the mammalian radiation. The platypus alpha-globin cluster (chromosome 21) contains embryonic and adult alpha- globin genes, a beta-like omega-globin gene, and the GBY globin gene with homology to cytoglobin, arranged as 5'-zeta-zeta'-alphaD-alpha3-alpha2-alpha1-omega-GBY-3'. The platypus beta-globin cluster (chromosome 2) contains single embryonic and adult globin genes arranged as 5'-epsilon-beta-3'. Surprisingly, all of these globin genes were expressed in some adult tissues. Comparison of flanking sequences revealed that all jawed vertebrate alpha-globin clusters are flanked by MPG-C16orf35 and LUC7L, whereas all bird and mammal beta-globin clusters are embedded in olfactory genes. Thus, the mammalian alpha- and beta-globin clusters are orthologous to the bird alpha- and beta-globin clusters respectively. We propose that alpha- and beta-globin clusters evolved from an ancient MPG-C16orf35-alpha-beta-GBY-LUC7L arrangement 410 million years ago. A copy of the original beta (represented by omega in marsupials and monotremes) was inserted into an array of olfactory genes before the amniote radiation (>315 million years ago), then duplicated and diverged to form orthologous clusters of beta-globin genes with different expression

  13. Expression of venom gene homologs in diverse python tissues suggests a new model for the evolution of snake venom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes-Velasco, Jacobo; Card, Daren C; Andrew, Audra L; Shaney, Kyle J; Adams, Richard H; Schield, Drew R; Casewell, Nicholas R; Mackessy, Stephen P; Castoe, Todd A

    2015-01-01

    Snake venom gene evolution has been studied intensively over the past several decades, yet most previous studies have lacked the context of complete snake genomes and the full context of gene expression across diverse snake tissues. We took a novel approach to studying snake venom evolution by leveraging the complete genome of the Burmese python, including information from tissue-specific patterns of gene expression. We identified the orthologs of snake venom genes in the python genome, and conducted detailed analysis of gene expression of these venom homologs to identify patterns that differ between snake venom gene families and all other genes. We found that venom gene homologs in the python are expressed in many different tissues outside of oral glands, which illustrates the pitfalls of using transcriptomic data alone to define "venom toxins." We hypothesize that the python may represent an ancestral state prior to major venom development, which is supported by our finding that the expansion of venom gene families is largely restricted to highly venomous caenophidian snakes. Therefore, the python provides insight into biases in which genes were recruited for snake venom systems. Python venom homologs are generally expressed at lower levels, have higher variance among tissues, and are expressed in fewer organs compared with all other python genes. We propose a model for the evolution of snake venoms in which venom genes are recruited preferentially from genes with particular expression profile characteristics, which facilitate a nearly neutral transition toward specialized venom system expression. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  14. Computational Model for Tumor Oxygenation Applied to Clinical Data on Breast Tumor Hemoglobin Concentrations Suggests Vascular Dilatation and Compression.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Welter

    Full Text Available We present a computational model for trans-vascular oxygen transport in synthetic tumor and host tissue blood vessel networks, aiming at qualitatively explaining published data of optical mammography, which were obtained from 87 breast cancer patients. The data generally show average hemoglobin concentration to be higher in tumors versus host tissue whereas average oxy-to total hemoglobin concentration (vascular segment RBC-volume-weighted blood oxygenation can be above or below normal. Starting from a synthetic arterio-venous initial network the tumor vasculature was generated by processes involving cooption, angiogenesis, and vessel regression. Calculations of spatially resolved blood flow, hematocrit, oxy- and total hemoglobin concentrations, blood and tissue oxygenation were carried out for ninety tumor and associated normal vessel networks starting from various assumed geometries of feeding arteries and draining veins. Spatial heterogeneity in the extra-vascular partial oxygen pressure distribution can be related to various tumor compartments characterized by varying capillary densities and blood flow characteristics. The reported higher average hemoglobin concentration of tumors is explained by growth and dilatation of tumor blood vessels. Even assuming sixfold metabolic rate of oxygen consumption in tumorous versus host tissue, the predicted oxygen hemoglobin concentrations are above normal. Such tumors are likely associated with high tumor blood flow caused by high-caliber blood vessels crossing the tumor volume and hence oxygen supply exceeding oxygen demand. Tumor oxy- to total hemoglobin concentration below normal could only be achieved by reducing tumor vessel radii during growth by a randomly selected factor, simulating compression caused by intra-tumoral solid stress due to proliferation of cells and extracellular matrix. Since compression of blood vessels will impede chemotherapy we conclude that tumors with oxy- to total

  15. City of Austin: Green habitat learning project. A green builder model home project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-12-01

    The purpose of the Year 14 UCETF project was to design and construct a residential structure that could serve as a demonstration facility, training site, and testing and monitoring laboratory for issues related to the implementation of sustainable building practices and materials. The Model Home Project builds on the previous and existing efforts, partially funded by the UCETF, of the City of Austin Green Builder Program to incorporate sustainable building practices into mainstream building activities. The Green Builder Program uses the term {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} as a synonym for sustainability. In the research and analysis that was completed for our earlier reports in Years 12 and 13, we characterized specific elements that we associate with sustainability and, thus, green building. In general, we refer to a modified life cycle assessment to ascertain if {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} building options reflect similar positive cyclical patterns found in nature (i.e. recyclability, recycled content, renewable resources, etc.). We additionally consider economic, human health and synergistic ecological impacts associated with our building choices and characterize the best choices as {open_quotes}green.{close_quotes} Our ultimate goal is to identify and use those {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} materials and processes that provide well for us now and do not compromise similar benefits for future generations. The original partnership developed for this project shifted during the year from a project stressing advanced (many prototypical) {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} building materials and techniques in a research and demonstration context, to off-the-shelf but underutilized {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} materials in the practical social context of using {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} technologies for low income housing. That project, discussed in this report, is called the Green Habitat Learning Project.

  16. Low Level Evidence Suggests That Librarian-Led Instruction in Evidence Based Practice is Effective Regardless of Instructional Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lindsay J. Alcock

    2017-06-01

    studies which included descriptive statistics and many also included inferential statistics intended to show significance. Differences between groups were assessed with parametric measures in 9 studies and non-parametric measures in 15 studies. Good to high statistical significance on at least 1 measurement was achieved in 23 studies. Given the absence of effect sizes, the level of differences between study groups could not be determined. Conclusion – Numerous pedagogical methods are used in librarian-led instruction in evidence based practice. However, there is a paucity of high level evidence and the literature suggests that no instructional method is demonstrated to be more effective than another.

  17. The Sasagawa project: a model for deinstitutionalisation in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizuno, Masafumi; Sakuma, Kei; Ryu, Yonosuke; Munakata, Shunichi; Takebayashi, Toru; Murakami, Masaaki; Falloon, Ian R H; Kashima, Haruo

    2005-06-01

    Japanese psychiatric services are still typically hospital-based. The Sasagawa Project is the first systematized deinstitutionalization project in Japan that aims to make the transition from hospital to residential living while ensuring both the quality and continuity of care for the patients. Seventy-eight (51 males) patients (mean age 54.6) with chronic schizophrenia, who were considered appropriate for discharge received continuous cognitive behavioural therapies based on the Optimal Treatment Project manualised protocol, both before and after the hospital closure. During the first 12 months after the deinstitutionalisation was initiated on April 1st, 2002, ten people had incidents that interrupted their stay in the residential Sasagawa Village. A common criticism of many treatment outcome trials is that evaluation is focused on changes in clinical severity. In the Sasagawa project the transition appeared to have been smooth and relatively few incidents occurred could be related to the transition to a less intensive residential care. This project might be a useful model for effecting and monitoring transition from hospital to community care in Japan and other countries where such changes have been proposed.

  18. Statistical downscaling of regional climate model output to achieve projections of precipitation extremes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric M. Laflamme

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this work we perform a statistical downscaling by applying a CDF transformation function to local-level daily precipitation extremes (from NCDC station data and corresponding NARCCAP regional climate model (RCM output to derive local-scale projections. These high-resolution projections are essential in assessing the impacts of projected climate change. The downscaling method is performed on 58 locations throughout New England, and from the projected distribution of extreme precipitation local-level 25-year return levels are calculated. To obtain uncertainty estimates for return levels, three procedures are employed: a parametric bootstrapping with mean corrected confidence intervals, a non-parametric bootstrapping with BCa (bias corrected and acceleration intervals, and a Bayesian model. In all cases, results are presented via distributions of differences in return levels between predicted and historical periods. Results from the three procedures show very few New England locations with significant increases in 25-year return levels from the historical to projected periods. This may indicate that projected trends in New England precipitation tend to be statistically less significant than suggested by many studies. For all three procedures, downscaled results are highly dependent on RCM and GCM model choice.

  19. Project Management Life Cycle Models to Improve Management in High-rise Construction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burmistrov, Andrey; Siniavina, Maria; Iliashenko, Oksana

    2018-03-01

    The paper describes a possibility to improve project management in high-rise buildings construction through the use of various Project Management Life Cycle Models (PMLC models) based on traditional and agile project management approaches. Moreover, the paper describes, how the split the whole large-scale project to the "project chain" will create the factor for better manageability of the large-scale buildings project and increase the efficiency of the activities of all participants in such projects.

  20. Project Management Life Cycle Models to Improve Management in High-rise Construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burmistrov Andrey

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes a possibility to improve project management in high-rise buildings construction through the use of various Project Management Life Cycle Models (PMLC models based on traditional and agile project management approaches. Moreover, the paper describes, how the split the whole large-scale project to the "project chain" will create the factor for better manageability of the large-scale buildings project and increase the efficiency of the activities of all participants in such projects.

  1. Model projections of atmospheric steering of Sandy-like superstorms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Elizabeth A; Polvani, Lorenzo M; Sobel, Adam H

    2013-09-17

    Superstorm Sandy ravaged the eastern seaboard of the United States, costing a great number of lives and billions of dollars in damage. Whether events like Sandy will become more frequent as anthropogenic greenhouse gases continue to increase remains an open and complex question. Here we consider whether the persistent large-scale atmospheric patterns that steered Sandy onto the coast will become more frequent in the coming decades. Using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 multimodel ensemble, we demonstrate that climate models consistently project a decrease in the frequency and persistence of the westward flow that led to Sandy's unprecedented track, implying that future atmospheric conditions are less likely than at present to propel storms westward into the coast.

  2. Model projections of atmospheric steering of Sandy-like superstorms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Elizabeth A.; Polvani, Lorenzo M.; Sobel, Adam H.

    2013-01-01

    Superstorm Sandy ravaged the eastern seaboard of the United States, costing a great number of lives and billions of dollars in damage. Whether events like Sandy will become more frequent as anthropogenic greenhouse gases continue to increase remains an open and complex question. Here we consider whether the persistent large-scale atmospheric patterns that steered Sandy onto the coast will become more frequent in the coming decades. Using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 multimodel ensemble, we demonstrate that climate models consistently project a decrease in the frequency and persistence of the westward flow that led to Sandy’s unprecedented track, implying that future atmospheric conditions are less likely than at present to propel storms westward into the coast. PMID:24003129

  3. Project Management in Public Administration. TPM – Total Project Management Maturity Model. The Case of Slovenian Public Administration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gordana ŽURGA

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the article is to present the importance of project management for the functioning of public administration, and its contribution to the realization of the developmental goals of the government. For this, integration of strategic management and project management is of vital importance. The methodology used is a combination of literature review, a case study of project management in public administration of the Republic of Slovenia, and development of a maturity model of project management in public administration, with its verifi cation on the case of Slovenia. The main contribution of the study is development of TPM – Total Project Management maturity model for public administration. Upon the TPM maturity model, project management in Slovene public administration is assessed and discussed. Out of fi ve maturity levels, the results for project management in Slovene public administration are: management of projects – level 2 (initiated, management of programs of projects – level 2 (initiated, management of portfolios of projects – level 3 (implemented, organizational support for project management – level 3 (implemented, HRM for project management – level 2 (initiated, and integration of project management and strategic management – level 3 (implemented. General fi ndings and recommendations in this respect are drawn, together with indicated areas for possible further research and investigation.

  4. Radioactive waste management. International projects on biosphere modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carboneras, P.; Cancio, D.

    1993-01-01

    The paper presents a general overview and discussion on the state of art concerning the biospheric transfer and accumulation of contaminants. A special emphasis is given to the progress achieved in the field of radioactive contaminants and particularly to those implied in radioactive waste disposal. The objectives and advances of the international projects BIOMOVS and VAMP on validation of model predictions are also described. (Author)

  5. Atomic Data and Modelling for Fusion: the ADAS Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Summers, H. P.; O'Mullane, M. G.

    2011-01-01

    The paper is an update on the Atomic Data and Analysis Structure, ADAS, since ICAM-DATA06 and a forward look to its evolution in the next five years. ADAS is an international project supporting principally magnetic confinement fusion research. It has participant laboratories throughout the world, including ITER and all its partner countries. In parallel with ADAS, the ADAS-EU Project provides enhanced support for fusion research at Associated Laboratories and Universities in Europe and ITER. OPEN-ADAS, sponsored jointly by the ADAS Project and IAEA, is the mechanism for open access to principal ADAS atomic data classes and facilitating software for their use. EXTENDED-ADAS comprises a variety of special, integrated application software, beyond the purely atomic bounds of ADAS, tuned closely to specific diagnostic analyses and plasma models.The current scientific content and scope of these various ADAS and ADAS related activities are briefly reviewed. These span a number of themes including heavy element spectroscopy and models, charge exchange spectroscopy, beam emission spectroscopy and special features which provide a broad baseline of atomic modelling and support. Emphasis will be placed on 'lifting the fundamental data baseline'--a principal ADAS task for the next few years. This will include discussion of ADAS and ADAS-EU coordinated and shared activities and some of the methods being exploited.

  6. Solid Waste Projection Model: Database (Version 1.3)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blackburn, C.L.

    1991-11-01

    The Solid Waste Projection Model (SWPM) system is an analytical tool developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC). The SWPM system provides a modeling and analysis environment that supports decisions in the process of evaluating various solid waste management alternatives. This document, one of a series describing the SWPM system, contains detailed information regarding the software and data structures utilized in developing the SWPM Version 1.3 Database. This document is intended for use by experienced database specialists and supports database maintenance, utility development, and database enhancement

  7. Regional climate model data used within the SWURVE project – 1: projected changes in seasonal patterns and estimation of PET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate data for studies within the SWURVE (Sustainable Water: Uncertainty, Risk and Vulnerability in Europe project, assessing the risk posed by future climatic change to various hydrological and hydraulic systems were obtained from the regional climate model HadRM3H, developed at the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office. This paper gives some background to HadRM3H; it also presents anomaly maps of the projected future changes in European temperature, rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET, estimated using a variant of the Penman formula. The future simulations of temperature and rainfall, following the SRES A2 emissions scenario, suggest that most of Europe will experience warming in all seasons, with heavier precipitation in winter in much of western Europe (except for central and northern parts of the Scandinavian mountains and drier summers in most parts of western and central Europe (except for the north-west and the eastern part of the Baltic Sea. Particularly large temperature anomalies (>6°C are projected for north-east Europe in winter and for southern Europe, Asia Minor and parts of Russia in summer. The projected PET displayed very large increases in summer for a region extending from southern France to Russia. The unrealistically large values could be the result of an enhanced hydrological cycle in HadRM3H, affecting several of the input parameters to the PET calculation. To avoid problems with hydrological modelling schemes, PET was re-calculated, using empirical relationships derived from observational values of temperature and PET.

  8. A River Model Intercomparison Project in Preparation for SWOT

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, C. H.; Andreadis, K.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Beighley, E.; Boone, A. A.; Yamazaki, D.; Paiva, R. C. D.; Fleischmann, A. S.; Collischonn, W.; Fisher, C. K.; Kim, H.; Biancamaria, S.

    2017-12-01

    The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission is currently scheduled to launch at the beginning of next decade. SWOT is expected to retrieve unprecedented measurements of water extent, elevation, and slope in the largest terrestrial water bodies. Such potential transformative information motivates the investigation of our ability to ingest the associated data into continental-scale models of terrestrial hydrology. In preparation for the expected SWOT observations, an inter-comparison of continental-scale river models is being performed. This comparison experiment focuses on four of the world's largest river basins: the Amazon, the Mississippi, the Niger, and the Saint-Lawrence. This ongoing project focuses on two main research questions: 1) How can we best prepare for the expected SWOT continental to global measurements before SWOT even flies?, and 2) What is the added value of including SWOT terrestrial measurements into global hydro models for enhancing our understanding of the terrestrial water cycle and the climate system? We present here the results of the second year of this project which now includes simulations from six numerical models of rivers over the Mississippi and sheds light on the implications of various modeling choices on simulation quality as well as on the potential impact of SWOT observations.

  9. Assessing Australian Rainfall Projections in Two Model Resolutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taschetto, A.; Haarsma, R. D.; Sen Gupta, A.

    2016-02-01

    Australian climate is projected to change with increases in greenhouse gases. The IPCC reports an increase in extreme daily rainfall across the country. At the same time, mean rainfall over southeast Australia is projected to reduce during austral winter, but to increase during austral summer, mainly associated with changes in the surrounding oceans. Climate models agree better on the future reduction of average rainfall over the southern regions of Australia compared to the increase in extreme rainfall events. One of the reasons for this disagreement may be related to climate model limitations in simulating the observed mechanisms associated with the mid-latitude weather systems, in particular due to coarse model resolutions. In this study we investigate how changes in sea surface temperature (SST) affect Australian mean and extreme rainfall under global warming, using a suite of numerical experiments at two model resolutions: about 126km (T159) and 25km (T799). The numerical experiments are performed with the earth system model EC-EARTH. Two 6-member ensembles are produced for the present day conditions and a future scenario. The present day ensemble is forced with the observed daily SST from the NOAA National Climatic Data Center from 2002 to 2006. The future scenario simulation is integrated from 2094 to 2098 using the present day SST field added onto the future SST change created from a 17-member ensemble based on the RCP4.5 scenario. Preliminary results show an increase in extreme rainfall events over Tasmania associated with enhanced convection driven by the Tasman Sea warming. We will further discuss how the projected changes in SST will impact the southern mid-latitude weather systems that ultimately affect Australian rainfall.

  10. A Management Maturity Model (MMM for project-based organisational performance assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Craig Langston

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Common sense suggests that organisations are more likely to deliver successful projects if they have systems in place that reflect a mature project environment based on a culture of continuous improvement. This paper develops and discusses a Management Maturity Model (MMM to assess the maturity of project management organisations through a customisable, systematic, strategic and practical methodology inspired from the seminal work of Darwin, Deming, Drucker and Daniel. The model presented is relevant to organisations, such as construction and engineering companies, that prefer to use the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK™ Guide published by the Project Management Institute (PMI, but without the disadvantages of excessive time and cost commitments and a ‘one size fits all’ approach linked to rigid increments of maturity. It offers a game-changing advance in the application of project-based organisational performance assessment compared to existing market solutions that are unnecessarily complex. The feasibility of MMM is field-tested using a medium-sized data centre infrastructure firm in Tehran.

  11. Projective limits of state spaces III. Toy-models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanéry, Suzanne; Thiemann, Thomas

    2018-01-01

    In this series of papers, we investigate the projective framework initiated by Kijowski (1977) and Okołów (2009, 2014, 2013) [1,2], which describes the states of a quantum theory as projective families of density matrices. A short reading guide to the series can be found in Lanéry (2016). A strategy to implement the dynamics in this formalism was presented in our first paper Lanéry and Thiemann (2017) (see also Lanéry, 2016, section 4), which we now test in two simple toy-models. The first one is a very basic linear model, meant as an illustration of the general procedure, and we will only discuss it at the classical level. In the second one, we reformulate the Schrödinger equation, treated as a classical field theory, within this projective framework, and proceed to its (non-relativistic) second quantization. We are then able to reproduce the physical content of the usual Fock quantization.

  12. Revenue Risk Modelling and Assessment on BOT Highway Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novianti, T.; Setyawan, H. Y.

    2018-01-01

    The infrastructure project which is considered as a public-private partnership approach under BOT (Build-Operate-Transfer) arrangement, such as a highway, is risky. Therefore, assessment on risk factors is essential as the project have a concession period and is influenced by macroeconomic factors and consensus period. In this study, pre-construction risks of a highway were examined by using a Delphi method to create a space for offline expert discussions; a fault tree analysis to map intuition of experts and to create a model from the underlying risk events; a fuzzy logic to interpret the linguistic data of risk models. The loss of revenue for risk tariff, traffic volume, force majeure, and income were then measured. The results showed that the loss of revenue caused by the risk tariff was 10.5% of the normal total revenue. The loss of revenue caused by the risk of traffic volume was 21.0% of total revenue. The loss of revenue caused by the force majeure was 12.2% of the normal income. The loss of income caused by the non-revenue events was 6.9% of the normal revenue. It was also found that the volume of traffic was the major risk of a highway project because it related to customer preferences.

  13. Innovations in projecting emissions for air quality modeling ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Air quality modeling is used in setting air quality standards and in evaluating their costs and benefits. Historically, modeling applications have projected emissions and the resulting air quality only 5 to 10 years into the future. Recognition that the choice of air quality management strategy has climate change implications is encouraging longer modeling time horizons. However, for multi-decadal time horizons, many questions about future conditions arise. For example, will current population, economic, and land use trends continue, or will we see shifts that may alter the spatial and temporal pattern of emissions? Similarly, will technologies such as building-integrated solar photovoltaics, battery storage, electric vehicles, and CO2 capture emerge as disruptive technologies - shifting how we produce and use energy - or will these technologies achieve only niche markets and have little impact? These are some of the questions that are being evaluated by researchers within the U.S. EPA’s Office of Research and Development. In this presentation, Dr. Loughlin will describe a range of analytical approaches that are being explored. These include: (i) the development of alternative scenarios of the future that can be used to evaluate candidate management strategies over wide-ranging conditions, (ii) the application of energy system models to project emissions decades into the future and to assess the environmental implications of new technologies, (iii) and methodo

  14. Projective symmetry of partons in Kitaev's honeycomb model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellado, Paula

    2015-03-01

    Low-energy states of quantum spin liquids are thought to involve partons living in a gauge-field background. We study the spectrum of Majorana fermions of Kitaev's honeycomb model on spherical clusters. The gauge field endows the partons with half-integer orbital angular momenta. As a consequence, the multiplicities reflect not the point-group symmetries of the cluster, but rather its projective symmetries, operations combining physical and gauge transformations. The projective symmetry group of the ground state is the double cover of the point group. We acknowledge Fondecyt under Grant No. 11121397, Conicyt under Grant No. 79112004, and the Simons Foundation (P.M.); the Max Planck Society and the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation (O.P.); and the US DOE Grant No. DE-FG02-08ER46544 (O.T.).

  15. Projection methods for the numerical solution of Markov chain models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saad, Youcef

    1989-01-01

    Projection methods for computing stationary probability distributions for Markov chain models are presented. A general projection method is a method which seeks an approximation from a subspace of small dimension to the original problem. Thus, the original matrix problem of size N is approximated by one of dimension m, typically much smaller than N. A particularly successful class of methods based on this principle is that of Krylov subspace methods which utilize subspaces of the form span(v,av,...,A(exp m-1)v). These methods are effective in solving linear systems and eigenvalue problems (Lanczos, Arnoldi,...) as well as nonlinear equations. They can be combined with more traditional iterative methods such as successive overrelaxation, symmetric successive overrelaxation, or with incomplete factorization methods to enhance convergence.

  16. Understanding Differences in Chemistry Climate Model Projections of Stratospheric Ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglass, A. R.; Strahan, S. E.; Oman, L. D.; Stolarski, R. S.

    2014-01-01

    Chemistry climate models (CCMs) are used to project future evolution of stratospheric ozone as concentrations of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) decrease and greenhouse gases increase, cooling the stratosphere. CCM projections exhibit not only many common features but also a broad range of values for quantities such as year of ozone return to 1980 and global ozone level at the end of the 21st century. Multiple linear regression is applied to each of 14 CCMs to separate ozone response to ODS concentration change from that due to climate change. We show that the sensitivity of lower stratospheric ozone to chlorine change Delta Ozone/Delta inorganic chlorine is a near-linear function of partitioning of total inorganic chlorine into its reservoirs; both inorganic chlorine and its partitioning are largely controlled by lower stratospheric transport. CCMs with best performance on transport diagnostics agree with observations for chlorine reservoirs and produce similar ozone responses to chlorine change. After 2035, differences in Delta Ozone/Delta inorganic chlorine contribute little to the spread in CCM projections as the anthropogenic contribution to inorganic chlorine becomes unimportant. Differences among upper stratospheric ozone increases due to temperature decreases are explained by differences in ozone sensitivity to temperature change Delta Ozone/Delta T due to different contributions from various ozone loss processes, each with its own temperature dependence. Ozone decrease in the tropical lower stratosphere caused by a projected speedup in the Brewer-Dobson circulation may or may not be balanced by ozone increases in the middle- and high-latitude lower stratosphere and upper troposphere. This balance, or lack thereof, contributes most to the spread in late 21st century projections.

  17. Characterizing 3D City Modeling Projects: Towards a Harmonized Interoperable System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arttu Julin

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available 3D city models have become common geospatial data assets for cities that can be utilized in numerous fields, in tasks related to planning, visualization, and decision-making among others. We present a study of 3D city modeling focusing on the six largest cities in Finland. The study portrays a contradiction between the realized 3D city modeling projects and the expectations towards them: models do not appear to reach the broad applicability envisioned. In order to deal with contradiction and to support the development of future 3D city models, characteristics of different operational cultures in 3D city modeling are presented, and a concept for harmonizing the 3D city modeling is suggested.

  18. Model performance evaluation (validation and calibration) in model-based studies of therapeutic interventions for cardiovascular diseases : a review and suggested reporting framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haji Ali Afzali, Hossein; Gray, Jodi; Karnon, Jonathan

    2013-04-01

    Decision analytic models play an increasingly important role in the economic evaluation of health technologies. Given uncertainties around the assumptions used to develop such models, several guidelines have been published to identify and assess 'best practice' in the model development process, including general modelling approach (e.g., time horizon), model structure, input data and model performance evaluation. This paper focuses on model performance evaluation. In the absence of a sufficient level of detail around model performance evaluation, concerns regarding the accuracy of model outputs, and hence the credibility of such models, are frequently raised. Following presentation of its components, a review of the application and reporting of model performance evaluation is presented. Taking cardiovascular disease as an illustrative example, the review investigates the use of face validity, internal validity, external validity, and cross model validity. As a part of the performance evaluation process, model calibration is also discussed and its use in applied studies investigated. The review found that the application and reporting of model performance evaluation across 81 studies of treatment for cardiovascular disease was variable. Cross-model validation was reported in 55 % of the reviewed studies, though the level of detail provided varied considerably. We found that very few studies documented other types of validity, and only 6 % of the reviewed articles reported a calibration process. Considering the above findings, we propose a comprehensive model performance evaluation framework (checklist), informed by a review of best-practice guidelines. This framework provides a basis for more accurate and consistent documentation of model performance evaluation. This will improve the peer review process and the comparability of modelling studies. Recognising the fundamental role of decision analytic models in informing public funding decisions, the proposed

  19. Developing a Project Scorecard to Measure the Performance of Project Management in Relation to EFQM Excellence Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathias Scheiblich

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Strategic company plans are more frequently realised in the form of strategic projects. Project portfolio management is new territory for a lot of companies, especially regarding the evaluation of strategic projects and the final financial and social results. The paper focuses on a pattern methodology for the measurement of project management performance and for projects prioritisation process. For this purpose, we analyse relevant pieces of literature in the field of project management, as well as other connected fields, like maturity and excellence models, balanced and project scorecard and performance measurement. As research methodology we develop a Project Scorecard that is derived from the Balanced Scorecard and the EFQM model. This is used to connect the strategic decision making process to the operational level of a project in terms of objectives and expectations, by determining a proper set of parameters that can measure each element’s impact on the project overall success. Our research focuses on two main parameters, staff and project maturity. Testing this tool is done by reviewing a sum of human resources documents and various employee surveys. The results offer an overall interpretation and key of the Project Scorecard.

  20. Multimode model for projective photon-counting measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tualle-Brouri, Rosa; Ourjoumtsev, Alexei; Dantan, Aurelien; Grangier, Philippe; Wubs, Martijn; Soerensen, Anders S.

    2009-01-01

    We present a general model to account for the multimode nature of the quantum electromagnetic field in projective photon-counting measurements. We focus on photon-subtraction experiments, where non-Gaussian states are produced conditionally. These are useful states for continuous-variable quantum-information processing. We present a general method called mode reduction that reduces the multimode model to an effective two-mode problem. We apply this method to a multimode model describing broadband parametric down-conversion, thereby improving the analysis of existing experimental results. The main improvement is that spatial and frequency filters before the photon detector are taken into account explicitly. We find excellent agreement with previously published experimental results, using fewer free parameters than before, and discuss the implications of our analysis for the optimized production of states with negative Wigner functions.

  1. Progress report for project modeling Arctic barrier island-lagoon system response to projected Arctic warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erikson, Li H.; Gibbs, Ann E.; Richmond, Bruce M.; Storlazzi, Curt; B.M. Jones,

    2012-01-01

    Changes in Arctic coastal ecosystems in response to global warming may be some of the most severe on the planet. A better understanding and analysis of the rates at which these changes are expected to occur over the coming decades is crucial in order to delineate high-priority areas that are likely to be affected by climate changes. In this study we investigate the likelihood of changes to habitat-supporting barrier island – lagoon systems in response to projected changes in atmospheric and oceanographic forcing associated with Arctic warming. To better understand the relative importance of processes responsible for the current and future coastal landscape, key parameters related to increasing arctic temperatures are investigated and used to establish boundary conditions for models that simulate barrier island migration and inundation of deltaic deposits and low-lying tundra. The modeling effort investigates the dominance and relative importance of physical processes shaping the modern Arctic coastline as well as decadal responses due to projected conditions out to the year 2100.

  2. Supporting Current Energy Conversion Projects through Numerical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, S. C.; Roberts, J.

    2016-02-01

    The primary goals of current energy conversion (CEC) technology being developed today are to optimize energy output and minimize environmental impact. CEC turbines generate energy from tidal and current systems and create wakes that interact with turbines located downstream of a device. The placement of devices can greatly influence power generation and structural reliability. CECs can also alter the environment surrounding the turbines, such as flow regimes, sediment dynamics, and water quality. These alterations pose potential stressors to numerous environmental receptors. Software is needed to investigate specific CEC sites to simulate power generation and hydrodynamic responses of a flow through a CEC turbine array so that these potential impacts can be evaluated. Moreover, this software can be used to optimize array layouts that yield the least changes to the environmental (i.e., hydrodynamics, sediment dynamics, and water quality). Through model calibration exercises, simulated wake profiles and turbulence intensities compare favorably to the experimental data and demonstrate the utility and accuracy of a fast-running tool for future siting and analysis of CEC arrays in complex domains. The Delft3D modeling tool facilitates siting of CEC projects through optimization of array layouts and evaluation of potential environmental effect all while provide a common "language" for academics, industry, and regulators to be able to discuss the implications of marine renewable energy projects. Given the enormity of any full-scale marine renewable energy project, it necessarily falls to modeling to evaluate how array operations must be addressed in an environmental impact statement in a way that engenders confidence in the assessment of the CEC array to minimize environmental effects.

  3. Alligator Rivers Analogue project. Hydrogeological modelling. Final Report - Volume 6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Townley, L.R.; Trefry, M.G.; Barr, A.D. [CSIRO Div of Water Resources, PO Wembley, WA (Australia); Braumiller, S. [Univ of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States). Dept of Hydrology and Water Resources; Kawanishi, M. [Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko-Shi, Chiba-Ken (Japan)] [and others

    1992-12-31

    This volume describes hydrogeological modelling carried out as part of the Alligator Rivers Analogue Project. Hydrogeology has played a key integrating role in the Project, largely because water movement is believed to have controlled the evolution of the Koongarra uranium Orebody and therefore affects field observations of all types at all scales. Aquifer testing described uses the concept of transmissivity in its interpretation of aquifer response to pumping. The concept of an aquifer, a layer transmitting significant quantities of water in a mainly horizontal direction, seems hard to accept in an environment as heterogeneous as that at Koongarra. But modelling of aquifers both in one dimension and two dimensionally in plan has contributed significantly to our understanding of the site. A one-dimensional model with three layers (often described as a quasi two dimensional model) was applied to flow between the Fault and Koongarra Creek. Being a transient model, this model was able to show that reverse flows can indeed occur back towards the Fault, but only if there is distributed recharge over the orebody as well as a mechanism for the Fault, or a region near the Fault, to remove water from the simulated cross-section. The model also showed clearly that the response of the three-layered system, consisting of a highly weathered zone, a fractured transmissive zone and a less conductive lower schist zone, is governed mainly by the transmissivity and storage coefficient of the middle layer. The storage coefficient of the higher layer has little effect. A two-dimensional model in plan used a description of anisotropy to show that reverse flows can also occur even without a conducting Fault. Modelling of a three-dimensional region using discrete fractures showed that it is certainly possible to simulate systems like that observed at Koongarra, but that large amounts of data are probably needed to obtain realistic descriptions of the fracture networks. Inverse modelling

  4. Alligator Rivers Analogue project. Hydrogeological modelling. Final Report - Volume 6

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Townley, L.R.; Trefry, M.G.; Barr, A.D.; Braumiller, S.

    1992-01-01

    This volume describes hydrogeological modelling carried out as part of the Alligator Rivers Analogue Project. Hydrogeology has played a key integrating role in the Project, largely because water movement is believed to have controlled the evolution of the Koongarra uranium Orebody and therefore affects field observations of all types at all scales. Aquifer testing described uses the concept of transmissivity in its interpretation of aquifer response to pumping. The concept of an aquifer, a layer transmitting significant quantities of water in a mainly horizontal direction, seems hard to accept in an environment as heterogeneous as that at Koongarra. But modelling of aquifers both in one dimension and two dimensionally in plan has contributed significantly to our understanding of the site. A one-dimensional model with three layers (often described as a quasi two dimensional model) was applied to flow between the Fault and Koongarra Creek. Being a transient model, this model was able to show that reverse flows can indeed occur back towards the Fault, but only if there is distributed recharge over the orebody as well as a mechanism for the Fault, or a region near the Fault, to remove water from the simulated cross-section. The model also showed clearly that the response of the three-layered system, consisting of a highly weathered zone, a fractured transmissive zone and a less conductive lower schist zone, is governed mainly by the transmissivity and storage coefficient of the middle layer. The storage coefficient of the higher layer has little effect. A two-dimensional model in plan used a description of anisotropy to show that reverse flows can also occur even without a conducting Fault. Modelling of a three-dimensional region using discrete fractures showed that it is certainly possible to simulate systems like that observed at Koongarra, but that large amounts of data are probably needed to obtain realistic descriptions of the fracture networks. Inverse modelling

  5. Eradicating the tsetse fly on Zanzibar Island: A model project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    Tsetse flies infest vast areas of Africa and transmit a parasitic disease which devastates livestock herds and spreads debilitating 'sleeping sickness' amongst people. Past efforts to control the disease - Trypanosomosis - and the carrier insects have met with only limited success. But now an environmentally friendly technology called the Sterile Insect Technique (SIT) may provide a lasting solution to this scourge. Working with the Tanzanian Government and Zanzibar authorities, the Department of Technical Co-operation has sponsored a 'Model Project', with technical support from the Joint FAO/IAEA Division, to eradicate the tsetse fly completely from Zanzibar Island by applying SIT. (IAEA)

  6. Nucleon form factors in the projected linear chiral soliton model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alberto, P.; Coimbra Univ.; Coimbra Univ.; Ruiz Arriola, E.; Gruemmer, F.; Fiolhais, M.; Urbano, J.N.; Coimbra Univ.; Goeke, K.; Bochum Univ.

    1988-01-01

    Electromagnetic and axial form factors of the nucleon are evaluated using the lagrangian of the linear chiral soliton model. To this end angular momentum and isospin projected mean field solutions are determined variationally assuming valence quarks and pions in generalized hedgehog configurations. With the proper pion decay constant and after fitting the quark-meson coupling constant to the nucleon energy both proton and neutron charge form factors are reproduced as well as the slope of the magnetic ones. The axial form factor agrees less well with experiment. The pion form factor can be approximated by a monopole with a cut-off mass of 690 MeV. (orig.)

  7. The declared barriers of the large developing countries waste management projects: The STAR model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bufoni, André Luiz; Oliveira, Luciano Basto; Rosa, Luiz Pinguelli

    2016-06-01

    The aim of this study is to investigate and describe the barriers system that precludes the feasibility, or limits the performance of the waste management projects through the analysis of which are the declared barriers at the 432 large waste management projects registered as CDM during the period 2004-2014. The final product is a waste management barriers conceptual model proposal (STAR), supported by literature and corroborated by projects design documents. This paper uses the computer assisted qualitative content analysis (CAQCA) methodology with the qualitative data analysis (QDA) software NVivo®, by 890 fragments, to investigate the motives to support our conclusions. Results suggest the main barriers classification in five types: sociopolitical, technological, regulatory, financial, and human resources constraints. Results also suggest that beyond the waste management industry, projects have disadvantages added related to the same barriers inherent to others renewable energies initiatives. The STAR model sheds some light over the interactivity and dynamics related to the main constraints of the industry, describing the mutual influences and relationships among each one. Future researches are needed to better and comprehensively understand these relationships and ease the development of tools to alleviate or eliminate them. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. An assessment of key model parametric uncertainties in projections of Greenland Ice Sheet behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Applegate

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Lack of knowledge about the values of ice sheet model input parameters introduces substantial uncertainty into projections of Greenland Ice Sheet contributions to future sea level rise. Computer models of ice sheet behavior provide one of several means of estimating future sea level rise due to mass loss from ice sheets. Such models have many input parameters whose values are not well known. Recent studies have investigated the effects of these parameters on model output, but the range of potential future sea level increases due to model parametric uncertainty has not been characterized. Here, we demonstrate that this range is large, using a 100-member perturbed-physics ensemble with the SICOPOLIS ice sheet model. Each model run is spun up over 125 000 yr using geological forcings and subsequently driven into the future using an asymptotically increasing air temperature anomaly curve. All modeled ice sheets lose mass after 2005 AD. Parameters controlling surface melt dominate the model response to temperature change. After culling the ensemble to include only members that give reasonable ice volumes in 2005 AD, the range of projected sea level rise values in 2100 AD is ~40 % or more of the median. Data on past ice sheet behavior can help reduce this uncertainty, but none of our ensemble members produces a reasonable ice volume change during the mid-Holocene, relative to the present. This problem suggests that the model's exponential relation between temperature and precipitation does not hold during the Holocene, or that the central-Greenland temperature forcing curve used to drive the model is not representative of conditions around the ice margin at this time (among other possibilities. Our simulations also lack certain observed physical processes that may tend to enhance the real ice sheet's response. Regardless, this work has implications for other studies that use ice sheet models to project or hindcast the behavior of the Greenland Ice

  9. Canadian RCM projected climate-change signal and its sensitivity to model errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sushama, L.; Laprise, R.; Caya, D.; Frigon, A.; Slivitzky, M.

    2006-12-01

    Climate change is commonly evaluated as the difference between simulated climates under future and current forcings, based on the assumption that systematic errors in the current-climate simulation do not affect the climate-change signal. In this paper, we investigate the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) projected climate changes in the climatological means and extremes of selected basin-scale surface fields and its sensitivity to model errors for Fraser, Mackenzie, Yukon, Nelson, Churchill and Mississippi basins, covering the major climate regions in North America, using current (1961-1990) and future climate simulations (2041-2070; A2 and IS92a scenarios) performed with two versions of CRCM.Assessment of errors in both model versions suggests the presence of nonnegligible biases in the surface fields, due primarily to the internal dynamics and physics of the regional model and to the errors in the driving data at the boundaries. In general, results demonstrate that, in spite of the errors in the two model versions, the simulated climate-change signals associated with the long-term monthly climatology of various surface water balance components (such as precipitation, evaporation, snow water equivalent (SWE), runoff and soil moisture) are consistent in sign, but differ in magnitude. The same is found for projected changes to the low-flow characteristics (frequency, timing and return levels) studied here. High-flow characteristics, particularly the seasonal distribution and return levels, appear to be more sensitive to the model version.CRCM climate-change projections indicate an increase in the average annual precipitation for all basins except Mississippi, while annual runoff increases in Fraser, Mackenzie and Yukon basins. A decrease in runoff is projected for Mississippi. A significant decrease in snow cover is projected for all basins, with maximum decrease in Fraser. Significant changes are also noted in the frequency, timing and return levels for low

  10. Systemic Modeling of Biological Functions in Consideration of Physiome Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minamitani, Haruyuki

    Emerging of the physiome project provides various influences on the medical, biological and pharmaceutical development. In this paper, as an example of physiome research, neural network model analysis providing the conduction mechanisms of pain and tactile sensations was presented, and the functional relations between neural activities of the network cells and stimulus intensity applied on the peripheral receptive fields were described. The modeling presented here is based on the various assumptions made by the results of physiological and anatomical studies reported in the literature. The functional activities of spinothalamic and thalamocortical cells show a good agreement with the physiological and psychophysical functions of somatosensory system that are very instructive for covering the gap between physiologically and psychophysically aspects of pain and tactile sensation.

  11. Two-stage Bayesian models-application to ZEDB project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunea, C.; Charitos, T.; Cooke, R.M.; Becker, G.

    2005-01-01

    A well-known mathematical tool to analyze plant specific reliability data for nuclear power facilities is the two-stage Bayesian model. Such two-stage Bayesian models are standard practice nowadays, for example in the German ZEDB project or in the Swedish T-Book, although they may differ in their mathematical models and software implementation. In this paper, we review the mathematical model, its underlying assumptions and supporting arguments. Reasonable conditional assumptions are made to yield tractable and mathematically valid form for the failure rate at plant of interest, given failures and operational times at other plants in the population. The posterior probability of failure rate at plant of interest is sensitive to the choice of hyperprior parameters since the effect of hyperprior distribution will never be dominated by the effect of observation. The methods of Poern and Jeffrey for choosing distributions over hyperparameters are discussed. Furthermore, we will perform verification tasks associated with the theoretical model presented in this paper. The present software implementation produces good agreement with ZEDB results for various prior distributions. The difference between our results and those of ZEDB reflect differences that may arise from numerical implementation, as that would use different step size and truncation bounds

  12. Modelling of Airship Flight Mechanics by the Projection Equivalent Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frantisek Jelenciak

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This article describes the projection equivalent method (PEM as a specific and relatively simple approach for the modelling of aircraft dynamics. By the PEM it is possible to obtain a mathematic al model of the aerodynamic forces and momentums acting on different kinds of aircraft during flight. For the PEM, it is a characteristic of it that -in principle - it provides an acceptable regression model of aerodynamic forces and momentums which exhibits reasonable and plausible behaviour from a dynamics viewpoint. The principle of this method is based on applying Newton's mechanics, which are then combined with a specific form of the finite element method to cover additional effects. The main advantage of the PEM is that it is not necessary to carry out measurements in a wind tunnel for the identification of the model's parameters. The plausible dynamical behaviour of the model can be achieved by specific correction parameters, which can be determined on the basis of experimental data obtained during the flight of the aircraft. In this article, we present the PEM as applied to an airship as well as a comparison of the data calculated by the PEM and experimental flight data.

  13. Evaluation model of project complexity for large-scale construction projects in Iran - A Fuzzy ANP approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aliyeh Kazemi

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Construction projects have always been complex. By growing trend of this complexity, implementations of large-scale constructions become harder. Hence, evaluating and understanding these complexities are critical. Correct evaluation of a project complication can provide executives and managers with good source to use. Fuzzy analytic network process (ANP is a logical and systematic approach toward defining, evaluation, and grading. This method allows for analyzing complex systems, and determining complexity of them. In this study, by taking advantage of fuzzy ANP, effective indexes for development of complications in large-scale construction projects in Iran have been determined and prioritized. The results show socio-political, project system interdependencies, and technological complexity indexes ranked top to three. Furthermore, in comparison of three main huge projects: commercial-administrative, hospital, and skyscrapers, the hospital project had been evaluated as the most complicated. This model is beneficial for professionals in managing large-scale projects.

  14. Habitat suitability index model for brook trout in streams of the Southern Blue Ridge Province: surrogate variables, model evaluation, and suggested improvements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christoper J. Schmitt; A. Dennis Lemly; Parley V. Winger

    1993-01-01

    Data from several sources were collated and analyzed by correlation, regression, and principal components analysis to define surrrogate variables for use in the brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) habitat suitability index (HSI) model, and to evaluate the applicability of the model for assessing habitat in high elevation streams of the southern Blue Ridge Province (...

  15. PROBLEMS OF VALUE-ORIENTED FORMATION OF PROJECT PRODUCT’S MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Тигран Георгиевич ГРИГОРЯН

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Problems of formation of the project output model related to the complexity of information transmission in the communication between the project participants and stakeholders are considered. The concept of forming a project output model based on allocation of stages of model developing and specification and efficiency of the formation of a model that takes into account the need to plan the project output value creation and transferring to the sponsor and consumers is proposed.

  16. Models for assessment of public-private partnership projects in subsurface management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    И. С. Калгина

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Aims and goals of this paper. The article is devoted to analysis of issues related to development of public-private partnership (PPP projects in mineral resources sector of Russia. The special emphasis is given to the most common PPP model in the field of industrial infrastructure construction using the Investment Fund of RF. We offer specific tools to be used with Russian models for assessment of PPP projects and forecasting of its efficiency for its participants. This model allows evaluating the results of the whole deposit development process, constructing graphs of all types of expenditures and revenues (by years, and having rent assessment of deposit NPV (net present value and internal rent rate (IRR.Methods and results. The iteration process at each step enables assessment of budget revenue forecast, living standards indexes, ecological parameters and performance indicators, as well as a certain variant of PPP project implementation for investors (direct government expenses on implementation of infrastructure objects and environmental activities, tax benefits. We have a set of tools for supporting the management decision making process in developing efficient PPP mechanism, balancing long-term government interests, private sector and local people interests arising during socio-economic development of mineral resources area. This method using the suggested tools for analyzing efficiency of a specific partnership mechanism is shown on the examples of projects of developing different deposits in Transbaikal region.

  17. Large-Scale Features of Pliocene Climate: Results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haywood, A. M.; Hill, D.J.; Dolan, A. M.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Bragg, F.; Chan, W.-L.; Chandler, M. A.; Contoux, C.; Dowsett, H. J.; Jost, A.; hide

    2013-01-01

    Climate and environments of the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264 to 3.025 Ma) have been extensively studied.Whilst numerical models have shed light on the nature of climate at the time, uncertainties in their predictions have not been systematically examined. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project quantifies uncertainties in model outputs through a coordinated multi-model and multi-mode data intercomparison. Whilst commonalities in model outputs for the Pliocene are clearly evident, we show substantial variation in the sensitivity of models to the implementation of Pliocene boundary conditions. Models appear able to reproduce many regional changes in temperature reconstructed from geological proxies. However, data model comparison highlights that models potentially underestimate polar amplification. To assert this conclusion with greater confidence, limitations in the time-averaged proxy data currently available must be addressed. Furthermore, sensitivity tests exploring the known unknowns in modelling Pliocene climate specifically relevant to the high latitudes are essential (e.g. palaeogeography, gateways, orbital forcing and trace gasses). Estimates of longer-term sensitivity to CO2 (also known as Earth System Sensitivity; ESS), support previous work suggesting that ESS is greater than Climate Sensitivity (CS), and suggest that the ratio of ESS to CS is between 1 and 2, with a "best" estimate of 1.5.

  18. Conceptualising a multidimensional model of information communication and technology project complexity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nazeer Joseph

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: Information communication and technology (ICT projects are different from other projects, such as construction, and require a new perspective to determine their true nature. The lacklustre state of ICT projects has plagued researchers and practitioners for decades as they are yet to understand why ICT projects do not perform. Literature places significant emphasis on success criteria and success factors for determining project success, but this is a unilateral view as the level of complexity involved is underestimated. ICT projects, however, are multifaceted as there are a number of dimensions that influence the management and outcome of a project. Objectives: This article aimed to illuminate how the dimensions are interdependent and interconnected through the construction of a conceptual model of ICT project complexity. Methods: Content analysis was used to identify and understand the various dimensions and facilitated construction of the model. Results: The article identified five dimensions that affect ICT projects, viz. project success, project lifecycle, project complexity, project types and project methods. Each dimension was analysed to understand the key constructs and elements that need to be considered. The dimensions were mapped in a multidimensional model. Conclusion: The multidimensional model of ICT project complexity can be used by ICT project managers to more effectively manage projects as they are provided with a greater understanding of ICT project influences.

  19. Hydrogeological model of the territory of Kowsar hydraulic project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orekhov Vyacheslav Valentinovich

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical hydrogeology model of the territory of Kowsar Project was created with account for the results of the engineering surveys and hydro geological monitoring, which was conducted in the process of Kowsar Project construction. In order to create the model in the present work a universal computer system Ansys was used, which implements the finite element method and solid modeling technology, allowing to solve the filtration problem with the use of thermal analogy. The three-dimensional geometric model was built with use of the principle “hard body” modeling, which displays the main line of the territory relief, including the created water reservoir, geological structure (anticline Duk and the main lithological complexes developed within the territory. In the limestone mass As here is a zone characterized by water permeability on territory of Kowsar Project, and a layer characterized by seepage feeding, which occurs outside the considered territory. The water reservoir is a source of the change of hydro geological situation. The results of field observations witness, that the levels of underground waters within the area of the main structures reacts almost instantly on the water level change in the water reservoir; the delay period of levels change is not more than 1,5…2,0 weeks at maximum distance from the water reservoir. These particularities of the hydro geological regime allow using the steady-state scheme of the decision of forecast problems. The mass of limestone As, containing the structures of the Kowsar Project, is not homogeneous and anisotropy in its seepage characteristics. The heterogeneity is conditioned by exogenous influence on the mass up to the depth of 100…150 m. The seepage anisotropy of the mass is expressed by the difference of water permeability of the mass along and across the layers for almost one order. The structures of Kowsar Project is presented by a dam, grouting curtain on axis of the dam and

  20. Open to Suggestion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Journal of Reading, 1987

    1987-01-01

    Offers (1) suggestions for improving college students' study skills; (2) a system for keeping track of parent, teacher, and community contacts; (3) suggestions for motivating students using tic tac toe; (4) suggestions for using etymology to improve word retention; (5) a word search grid; and (6) suggestions for using postcards in remedial reading…

  1. Flyover Modeling of Planetary Pits - Undergraduate Student Instrument Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhasin, N.; Whittaker, W.

    2015-12-01

    On the surface of the moon and Mars there are hundreds of skylights, which are collapsed holes that are believed to lead to underground caves. This research uses Vision, Inertial, and LIDAR sensors to build a high resolution model of a skylight as a landing vehicle flies overhead. We design and fabricate a pit modeling instrument to accomplish this task, implement software, and demonstrate sensing and modeling capability on a suborbital reusable launch vehicle flying over a simulated pit. Future missions on other planets and moons will explore pits and caves, led by the technology developed by this research. Sensor software utilizes modern graph-based optimization techniques to build 3D models using camera, LIDAR, and inertial data. The modeling performance was validated with a test flyover of a planetary skylight analog structure on the Masten Xombie sRLV. The trajectory profile closely follows that of autonomous planetary powered descent, including translational and rotational dynamics as well as shock and vibration. A hexagonal structure made of shipping containers provides a terrain feature that serves as an appropriate analog for the rim and upper walls of a cylindrical planetary skylight. The skylight analog floor, walls, and rim are modeled in elevation with a 96% coverage rate at 0.25m2 resolution. The inner skylight walls have 5.9cm2 color image resolution and the rims are 6.7cm2 with measurement precision superior to 1m. The multidisciplinary student team included students of all experience levels, with backgrounds in robotics, physics, computer science, systems, mechanical and electrical engineering. The team was commited to authentic scientific experimentation, and defined specific instrument requirements and measurable experiment objectives to verify successful completion.This work was made possible by the NASA Undergraduate Student Instrument Project Educational Flight Opportunity 2013 program. Additional support was provided by the sponsorship of an

  2. Project Investment and Project Financing: A study on Business Case and Financing Models

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Simiao

    2012-01-01

    Uncertainty is a very significant factor that must be taken into consideration in project front-end phase management. By taking into uncertainty, the planners can to a great extent make sure that the business case could be accurate between specific intervals, hence business case can be based on to make decision. In a highly uncertain environment; the project sponsors should prefer other means to finance the project rather than using debt. Risk management is extremely important in project fina...

  3. Modeling of problems of projection: A non-countercyclic approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Ginsburg

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a computational implementation of the recent Problems of Projection (POP approach to the study of language (Chomsky 2013; 2015. While adopting the basic proposals of POP, notably with respect to how labeling occurs, we a attempt to formalize the basic proposals of POP, and b develop new proposals that overcome some problems with POP that arise with respect to cyclicity, labeling, and wh-movement operations. We show how this approach accounts for simple declarative sentences, ECM constructions, and constructions that involve long-distance movement of a wh-phrase (including the that-trace effect. We implemented these proposals with a computer model that automatically constructs step-by-step derivations of target sentences, thus making it possible to verify that these proposals work.

  4. Towards robust evolutionary inference with integral projection models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janeiro, M J; Coltman, D W; Festa-Bianchet, M; Pelletier, F; Morrissey, M B

    2017-02-01

    Integral projection models (IPMs) are extremely flexible tools for ecological and evolutionary inference. IPMs track the distribution of phenotype in populations through time, using functions describing phenotype-dependent development, inheritance, survival and fecundity. For evolutionary inference, two important features of any model are the ability to (i) characterize relationships among traits (including values of the same traits across ages) within individuals, and (ii) characterize similarity between individuals and their descendants. In IPM analyses, the former depends on regressions of observed trait values at each age on values at the previous age (development functions), and the latter on regressions of offspring values at birth on parent values as adults (inheritance functions). We show analytically that development functions, characterized this way, will typically underestimate covariances of trait values across ages, due to compounding of regression to the mean across projection steps. Similarly, we show that inheritance, characterized this way, is inconsistent with a modern understanding of inheritance, and underestimates the degree to which relatives are phenotypically similar. Additionally, we show that the use of a constant biometric inheritance function, particularly with a constant intercept, is incompatible with evolution. Consequently, current implementations of IPMs will predict little or no phenotypic evolution, purely as artefacts of their construction. We present alternative approaches to constructing development and inheritance functions, based on a quantitative genetic approach, and show analytically and through an empirical example on a population of bighorn sheep how they can potentially recover patterns that are critical to evolutionary inference. © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

  5. Integrated Medical Model Project - Overview and Summary of Historical Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, J.; Boley, L.; Butler, D.; Foy, M.; Goodenow, D.; Griffin, D.; Keenan, A.; Kerstman, E.; Melton, S.; McGuire, K.; hide

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project represents one aspect of NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) to quantitatively assess medical risks to astronauts for existing operational missions as well as missions associated with future exploration and commercial space flight ventures. The IMM takes a probabilistic approach to assessing the likelihood and specific outcomes of one hundred medical conditions within the envelope of accepted space flight standards of care over a selectable range of mission capabilities. A specially developed Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) maintains evidence-based, organizational knowledge across a variety of data sources. Since becoming operational in 2011, version 3.0 of the IMM, the supporting iMED, and the expertise of the IMM project team have contributed to a wide range of decision and informational processes for the space medical and human research community. This presentation provides an overview of the IMM conceptual architecture and range of application through examples of actual space flight community questions posed to the IMM project. Methods: Figure 1 [see document] illustrates the IMM modeling system and scenario process. As illustrated, the IMM computational architecture is based on Probabilistic Risk Assessment techniques. Nineteen assumptions and limitations define the IMM application domain. Scenario definitions include crew medical attributes and mission specific details. The IMM forecasts probabilities of loss of crew life (LOCL), evacuation (EVAC), quality time lost during the mission, number of medical resources utilized and the number and type of medical events by combining scenario information with in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical information stored in the iMED. In addition, the metrics provide the integrated information necessary to estimate optimized in-flight medical kit contents under constraints of mass and volume or acceptable level of mission risk. Results and Conclusions

  6. Software development infrastructure for the HYBRID modeling and simulation project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Epiney, Aaron S. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Kinoshita, Robert A. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Kim, Jong Suk [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rabiti, Cristian [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Greenwood, M. Scott [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-09-01

    One of the goals of the HYBRID modeling and simulation project is to assess the economic viability of hybrid systems in a market that contains renewable energy sources like wind. The idea is that it is possible for the nuclear plant to sell non-electric energy cushions, which absorb (at least partially) the volatility introduced by the renewable energy sources. This system is currently modeled in the Modelica programming language. To assess the economics of the system, an optimization procedure is trying to find the minimal cost of electricity production. The RAVEN code is used as a driver for the whole problem. It is assumed that at this stage, the HYBRID modeling and simulation framework can be classified as non-safety “research and development” software. The associated quality level is Quality Level 3 software. This imposes low requirements on quality control, testing and documentation. The quality level could change as the application development continues.Despite the low quality requirement level, a workflow for the HYBRID developers has been defined that include a coding standard and some documentation and testing requirements. The repository performs automated unit testing of contributed models. The automated testing is achieved via an open-source python script called BuildingsP from Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. BuildingsPy runs Modelica simulation tests using Dymola in an automated manner and generates and runs unit tests from Modelica scripts written by developers. In order to assure effective communication between the different national laboratories a biweekly videoconference has been set-up, where developers can report their progress and issues. In addition, periodic face-face meetings are organized intended to discuss high-level strategy decisions with management. A second means of communication is the developer email list. This is a list to which everybody can send emails that will be received by the collective of the developers and managers

  7. Megacity project: Liwa, climate and water balance modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamorro, Alejandro; Bardossy, Andras

    2010-05-01

    Megacity project: Liwa, climate and water balance modeling Peru uses to face different natural phenomena such as El Nino and La Nina phenomena and, like many cities around the word, the climate change effects. Its capital Lima, located in a region where annual precipitation is about 9 mm, has a high hydrological cycle vulnerability which is demonstrated in periods of drought and extreme drought. Accurate and reliable methodology is requiring studying the impact of all these problems in the water supply of Lima. A statistical downscaling scheme (Bardossy, 2002) will be used to generate time series of different local climate scenarios in order to be applied in hydrological models. The conceptual model HBV (Bergström, 1995) is used to simulate water discharges at certain points of the catchments under study, water balance groundwater and for the estimation of storage volume in different reservoirs. As already mentioned, El Nino and La Nina currents influence the hydrological cycle. Previous studies have shown that these phenomena have serious impacts in Peru. In order to quantify these impacts in the area of interest we have analyzed the magnitude of the precipitation in several stations in years in which El Nino occurred, and in years where El Nino did not occurred. The next step is to increase the temporal resolution by incorporating new data. Due to the high vulnerability of the water supply system in Lima, potential new water sources are required. In particular, the catchment of Mantaro (including existing lakes) on the other side of Los Andes Mountains provides potential new alternatives for adding water to the current system. Alternatives for water transportation include using existing long tunnels which connect Mantaro with Rimac, where the majority of the lakes are located. Finally, the global climate models simulations for the coming years, considering different scenarios, will be used as an indicator and to estimate water availability for human use (city

  8. When the rule becomes the exception. no evidence of gene flow between two Zerynthia cryptic butterflies suggests the emergence of a new model group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zinetti, Francesca; Dapporto, Leonardo; Vovlas, Alessio; Chelazzi, Guido; Bonelli, Simona; Balletto, Emilio; Ciofi, Claudio

    2013-01-01

    There is increasing evidence that most parapatric cryptic/sister taxa are reproductively compatible across their areas of contact. Consequently, the biological species concept, which assumes absence of interbreeding, is becoming a not so effective criterion in evolutionary ecology. Nevertheless, the few parapatric sister taxa showing complete reproductive barriers represent interesting models to study speciation processes and the evolution of reproductive isolation. In this study, we examined contact populations in northwestern Italy of two butterfly species, Zerynthia polyxena and Z. cassandra, characterized by different genitalic morphotypes. We studied levels of divergence among 21 populations distributed from Sicily to France using three genetic markers (the mitochondrial COI and ND1 genes and the nuclear wingless gene) and genitalic geometric morphometrics. Moreover, we performed species distribution modelling to estimate different climatic requirements of Z. polyxena and Z. cassandra. We projected climatic data into glacial maximum scenarios in order to verify if and to which extent glacial cycles could have contributed to speciation processes. Genetic and morphometric analyses identified two main groups. All specimens showed a concordant pattern of diversification, including those individuals sampled in the contact area. Haplotype distribution and climatic models showed that during glacial maxima both species experienced a strong range contraction and presumably remained separated into different microrefugia in southern France, in the Italian Peninsula and on the islands of Elba and Sicily. Long term separation was probably favoured by reduced dispersal ability and high phylopatry, while genitalic diversification probably favoured interbreeding avoidance. Conversely, the aposematic wing pattern remained almost identical. We compared our results with those obtained in other species and concluded that Z. polyxena and Z. cassandra represent a valuable model in

  9. The CTQ flowdown as a conceptual model of project objectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Koning, H.; de Mast, J.

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to describe and clarify a tool that is at the core of the definition phase of most quality improvement projects. This tool is called the critical to quality (CTQ) flowdown. It relates high-level strategic focal points to project objectives. In their turn project

  10. Building an Experiential Learning Model for a Project Management Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Kuan C.; Chuang, Keh-Wen

    2009-01-01

    Teaching students to become project management professionals requires a real world experience. Incorporating live clients into student projects, instead of using case studies or mock companies, adds a dimension that exposes students to the realities of project management. This paper will describe a structured methodology used in a project…

  11. Galerkin v. discrete-optimal projection in nonlinear model reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carlberg, Kevin Thomas [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Barone, Matthew Franklin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Antil, Harbir [George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    Discrete-optimal model-reduction techniques such as the Gauss{Newton with Approximated Tensors (GNAT) method have shown promise, as they have generated stable, accurate solutions for large-scale turbulent, compressible ow problems where standard Galerkin techniques have failed. However, there has been limited comparative analysis of the two approaches. This is due in part to difficulties arising from the fact that Galerkin techniques perform projection at the time-continuous level, while discrete-optimal techniques do so at the time-discrete level. This work provides a detailed theoretical and experimental comparison of the two techniques for two common classes of time integrators: linear multistep schemes and Runge{Kutta schemes. We present a number of new ndings, including conditions under which the discrete-optimal ROM has a time-continuous representation, conditions under which the two techniques are equivalent, and time-discrete error bounds for the two approaches. Perhaps most surprisingly, we demonstrate both theoretically and experimentally that decreasing the time step does not necessarily decrease the error for the discrete-optimal ROM; instead, the time step should be `matched' to the spectral content of the reduced basis. In numerical experiments carried out on a turbulent compressible- ow problem with over one million unknowns, we show that increasing the time step to an intermediate value decreases both the error and the simulation time of the discrete-optimal reduced-order model by an order of magnitude.

  12. Study on the maturity model of nuclear power project management in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Changbing; Li Huiqiang; Zheng Yanguo

    2009-01-01

    Based on the general project management maturity model, this paper discussed the establishment of nuclear power engineering project management maturity model in China, and proposed a basic framework in order to provide a way for improving and evaluating the ability of nuclear power project management in China. (authors)

  13. Regional climate models reduce biases of global models and project smaller European summer warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soerland, S.; Schar, C.; Lüthi, D.; Kjellstrom, E.

    2017-12-01

    The assessment of regional climate change and the associated planning of adaptation and response strategies are often based on complex model chains. Typically, these model chains employ global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs), as well as one or several impact models. It is a common belief that the errors in such model chains behave approximately additive, thus the uncertainty should increase with each modeling step. If this hypothesis were true, the application of RCMs would not lead to any intrinsic improvement (beyond higher-resolution detail) of the GCM results. Here, we investigate the bias patterns (offset during the historical period against observations) and climate change signals of two RCMs that have downscaled a comprehensive set of GCMs following the EURO-CORDEX framework. The two RCMs reduce the biases of the driving GCMs, reduce the spread and modify the amplitude of the GCM projected climate change signal. The GCM projected summer warming at the end of the century is substantially reduced by both RCMs. These results are important, as the projected summer warming and its likely impact on the water cycle are among the most serious concerns regarding European climate change.

  14. Modeling and projection of dengue fever cases in Guangzhou based on variation of weather factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chenlu; Wang, Xiaofeng; Wu, Xiaoxu; Liu, Jianing; Ji, Duoying; Du, Juan

    2017-12-15

    Dengue fever is one of the most serious vector-borne infectious diseases, especially in Guangzhou, China. Dengue viruses and their vectors Aedes albopictus are sensitive to climate change primarily in relation to weather factors. Previous research has mainly focused on identifying the relationship between climate factors and dengue cases, or developing dengue case models with some non-climate factors. However, there has been little research addressing the modeling and projection of dengue cases only from the perspective of climate change. This study considered this topic using long time series data (1998-2014). First, sensitive weather factors were identified through meta-analysis that included literature review screening, lagged analysis, and collinear analysis. Then, key factors that included monthly average temperature at a lag of two months, and monthly average relative humidity and monthly average precipitation at lags of three months were determined. Second, time series Poisson analysis was used with the generalized additive model approach to develop a dengue model based on key weather factors for January 1998 to December 2012. Data from January 2013 to July 2014 were used to validate that the model was reliable and reasonable. Finally, future weather data (January 2020 to December 2070) were input into the model to project the occurrence of dengue cases under different climate scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Longer time series analysis and scientifically selected weather variables were used to develop a dengue model to ensure reliability. The projections suggested that seasonal disease control (especially in summer and fall) and mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions could help reduce the incidence of dengue fever. The results of this study hope to provide a scientifically theoretical basis for the prevention and control of dengue fever in Guangzhou. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. A Canonical Response in Rainfall Characteristics to Global Warming: Projections by IPCC CMIP5 Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.; Kim, K. M.

    2012-01-01

    Changes in rainfall characteristics induced by global warming are examined based on probability distribution function (PDF) analysis, from outputs of 14 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), CMIP (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models under various scenarios of increased CO2 emissions. Results show that collectively CMIP5 models project a robust and consistent global and regional rainfall response to CO2 warming. Globally, the models show a 1-3% increase in rainfall per degree rise in temperature, with a canonical response featuring large increase (100-250 %) in frequency of occurrence of very heavy rain, a reduction (5-10%) of moderate rain, and an increase (10-15%) of light rain events. Regionally, even though details vary among models, a majority of the models (>10 out of 14) project a consistent large scale response with more heavy rain events in climatologically wet regions, most pronounced in the Pacific ITCZ and the Asian monsoon. Moderate rain events are found to decrease over extensive regions of the subtropical and extratropical oceans, but increases over the extratropical land regions, and the Southern Oceans. The spatial distribution of light rain resembles that of moderate rain, but mostly with opposite polarity. The majority of the models also show increase in the number of dry events (absence or only trace amount of rain) over subtropical and tropical land regions in both hemispheres. These results suggest that rainfall characteristics are changing and that increased extreme rainfall events and droughts occurrences are connected, as a consequent of a global adjustment of the large scale circulation to global warming.

  16. Projecting and attributing future changes of evaporative demand over China in CMIP5 climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Wenbin; Sun, Fubao

    2017-04-01

    Atmospheric evaporative demand plays a pivotal role in global water and energy budgets and its change is very important for drought monitoring, irrigation scheduling and water resource management under a changing environment. Here, we first projected and attributed future changes of pan evaporation (E_pan), a measurable indictor for atmospheric evaporative demand, over China through a physical- based approach, namely PenPan model, forced with outputs form twelve state-of-the-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models. An equidistant quantile mapping method was also used to correct the biases in GCMs outputs to reduce uncertainty in〖 E〗_pan projection. The results indicated that the E_panwould increase during the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 relative to the baseline period 1971-2000 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, which can mainly be attributed to the projected increase in air temperature and vapour pressure deficit over China. The percentage increase of E_pan is relatively larger in eastern China than that in western China, which is due to the spatially inconsistent increases in air temperature, net radiation, wind speed and vapour pressure deficit over China. The widely reported "pan evaporation paradox" was not well reproduced for the period 1961-2000 in the climate models, before or after bias correction, suggesting discrepancy between observed and modeled trends. With that caveat, we found that the pan evaporation has been projected to increase at a rate of 117 167 mm/yr per K (72 80 mm/yr per K) over China using the multiple GCMs under the RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario with increased greenhouse gases and the associated warming of the climate system. References: Liu W, and Sun F, 2017. Projecting and attributing future changes of evaporative demand over China in CMIP5 climate models, Journal of Hydrometeorology, doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-16-0204.1

  17. AeroCom INSITU Project: Comparison of Aerosol Optical Properties from In-situ Surface Measurements and Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmeisser, L.; Andrews, E.; Schulz, M.; Fiebig, M.; Zhang, K.; Randles, C. A.; Myhre, G.; Chin, M.; Stier, P.; Takemura, T.; Krol, M. C.; Bian, H.; Skeie, R. B.; da Silva, A. M., Jr.; Kokkola, H.; Laakso, A.; Ghan, S.; Easter, R. C.

    2015-12-01

    AeroCom, an open international collaboration of scientists seeking to improve global aerosol models, recently initiated a project comparing model output to in-situ, surface-based measurements of aerosol optical properties. The model/measurement comparison project, called INSITU, aims to evaluate the performance of a suite of AeroCom aerosol models with site-specific observational data in order to inform iterative improvements to model aerosol modules. Surface in-situ data have the unique property of being traceable to physical standards, which is a big asset in accomplishing the overarching goal of bettering the accuracy of aerosol processes and predicative capability of global climate models. The INSITU project looks at how well models reproduce aerosol climatologies on a variety of time scales, aerosol characteristics and behaviors (e.g., aerosol persistence and the systematic relationships between aerosol optical properties), and aerosol trends. Though INSITU is a multi-year endeavor, preliminary phases of the analysis, using GOCART and other models participating in this AeroCom project, show substantial model biases in absorption and scattering coefficients compared to surface measurements, though the sign and magnitude of the bias varies with location and optical property. Spatial patterns in the biases highlight model weaknesses, e.g., the inability of models to properly simulate aerosol characteristics at sites with complex topography (see Figure 1). Additionally, differences in modeled and measured systematic variability of aerosol optical properties suggest that some models are not accurately capturing specific aerosol co-dependencies, for example, the tendency of in-situ surface single scattering albedo to decrease with decreasing aerosol extinction coefficient. This study elucidates specific problems with current aerosol models and suggests additional model runs and perturbations that could further evaluate the discrepancies between measured and modeled

  18. Structural models of zebrafish (Danio rerio NOD1 and NOD2 NACHT domains suggest differential ATP binding orientations: insights from computational modeling, docking and molecular dynamics simulations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jitendra Maharana

    Full Text Available Nucleotide-binding oligomerization domain-containing protein 1 (NOD1 and NOD2 are cytosolic pattern recognition receptors playing pivotal roles in innate immune signaling. NOD1 and NOD2 recognize bacterial peptidoglycan derivatives iE-DAP and MDP, respectively and undergoes conformational alternation and ATP-dependent self-oligomerization of NACHT domain followed by downstream signaling. Lack of structural adequacy of NACHT domain confines our understanding about the NOD-mediated signaling mechanism. Here, we predicted the structure of NACHT domain of both NOD1 and NOD2 from model organism zebrafish (Danio rerio using computational methods. Our study highlighted the differential ATP binding modes in NOD1 and NOD2. In NOD1, γ-phosphate of ATP faced toward the central nucleotide binding cavity like NLRC4, whereas in NOD2 the cavity was occupied by adenine moiety. The conserved 'Lysine' at Walker A formed hydrogen bonds (H-bonds and Aspartic acid (Walker B formed electrostatic interaction with ATP. At Sensor 1, Arg328 of NOD1 exhibited an H-bond with ATP, whereas corresponding Arg404 of NOD2 did not. 'Proline' of GxP motif (Pro386 of NOD1 and Pro464 of NOD2 interacted with adenine moiety and His511 at Sensor 2 of NOD1 interacted with γ-phosphate group of ATP. In contrast, His579 of NOD2 interacted with the adenine moiety having a relatively inverted orientation. Our findings are well supplemented with the molecular interaction of ATP with NLRC4, and consistent with mutagenesis data reported for human, which indicates evolutionary shared NOD signaling mechanism. Together, this study provides novel insights into ATP binding mechanism, and highlights the differential ATP binding modes in zebrafish NOD1 and NOD2.

  19. Multi-model ensemble projections of future extreme heat stress on rice across southern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Liang; Cleverly, James; Wang, Bin; Jin, Ning; Mi, Chunrong; Liu, De Li; Yu, Qiang

    2017-08-01

    Extreme heat events have become more frequent and intense with climate warming, and these heatwaves are a threat to rice production in southern China. Projected changes in heat stress in rice provide an assessment of the potential impact on crop production and can direct measures for adaptation to climate change. In this study, we calculated heat stress indices using statistical scaling techniques, which can efficiently downscale output from general circulation models (GCMs). Data across the rice belt in southern China were obtained from 28 GCMs in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) with two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 for current emissions and RCP8.5 for increasing emissions). Multi-model ensemble projections over the historical period (1960-2010) reproduced the trend of observations in heat stress indices (root-mean-square error RMSE = 6.5 days) better than multi-model arithmetic mean (RMSE 8.9 days) and any individual GCM (RMSE 11.4 days). The frequency of heat stress events was projected to increase by 2061-2100 in both scenarios (up to 185 and 319% for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively), especially in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. This increasing risk of exposure to heat stress above 30 °C during flowering and grain filling is predicted to impact rice production. The results of our study suggest the importance of specific adaption or mitigation strategies, such as selection of heat-tolerant cultivars and adjustment of planting date in a warmer future world.

  20. Climate change adaptation: Comparing climate model projections of flooding against flood estimation by continuous simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, A.; Bates, P. D.; Freer, J. E.

    2012-12-01

    Modelled assessments of climate change impacts on flooding are now increasingly used to inform adaptation and mitigation policy. These modelled assessments are typically driven by Global and Regional Climate Models (GCM/RCM). However, opinion is divided on how best to proceed, particularly with regards to the feasibility and practicality of using climate model outputs to inform management strategies. Here RCM driven projections of extreme discharges are compared against the uncertainty present in the observed record. The run-off model HBV_light is applied, within the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework, to the Upper Avon catchment in the Midlands of England, in the U.K. A 48 year observational record of rainfall and discharge was used, with non-behavioural parameter sets being rejected through an evaluation of continuous hydrograph simulation and annual maximum discharge. The output of an RCM ensemble was used, with differing ensemble approaches, to assess climate change impacts on extreme discharge. A daily stochastic rainfall generator was then applied to the observational record and used to simulate 2000 years of discharge. RCM driven changes in extreme discharge could then be compared against the variability present in the observed record. The results suggest that coping with present uncertainty in the observed record is already a significant challenge, with the range of uncertainty in a 1 in 100 year event eclipsing the uncertainty present in climate projections.

  1. Multi-model projections of premium wine grape temperature suitability in the US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherer, M.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

    2011-12-01

    We explore the potential to improve the understanding of the processes that shape the response of the climate system to changes in radiative forcing by directly targeting climate model analyses at specific indicators of climate change impact. Given its temperature sensitivity and cultural and economic importance, suitability of premium winegrape cultivation provides an interesting test case for climate change impact studies. In the current analysis, we employ a multi-model framework with realizations from three different, high- and low-resolution ensembles (NARCCAP, CMIP3 and a 5-member, physically uniform ensemble of RegCM3 simulations), which allow us to explore different forms of uncertainty in the projected climate change impact, including the influence of climate model biases on the model spread. We find that the three ensembles produce the same broad pattern of late 20th century temperature suitability in the continental U.S., with high suitability over the Pacific Coast and over a mid-latitude belt of the eastern U.S. In response to the mid-21st century climate, the temperature suitability decreases in all ensembles in the areas in which most of the premium US wine is currently produced. More specifically, the number of suitable years in the present production areas in California and the Columbia Valley are projected to decrease by up to 80 and 50%. The main causes for the increasingly limited suitability in these two areas are the rise in the mean growing season temperature and the rise in the number of severe hot days during the growing season. Our results suggest that the multi-model spread in projected mid-21st century changes in temperature suitability is mostly due to model formulation, with the spread due to natural variability being substantially smaller. Comparison of the available high-resolution and low-resolution model realizations suggests that the uncertainty arising from the model formulation of fine-scale climate processes is similar to the

  2. Projections of global health outcomes from 2005 to 2060 using the International Futures integrated forecasting model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Barry B; Kuhn, Randall; Peterson, Cecilia M; Rothman, Dale S; Solórzano, José R; Mathers, Colin D; Dickson, Janet R

    2011-07-01

    To develop an integrated health forecasting model as part of the International Futures (IFs) modelling system. The IFs model begins with the historical relationships between economic and social development and cause-specific mortality used by the Global Burden of Disease project but builds forecasts from endogenous projections of these drivers by incorporating forward linkages from health outcomes back to inputs like population and economic growth. The hybrid IFs system adds alternative structural formulations for causes not well served by regression models and accounts for changes in proximate health risk factors. Forecasts are made to 2100 but findings are reported to 2060. The base model projects that deaths from communicable diseases (CDs) will decline by 50%, whereas deaths from both non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and injuries will more than double. Considerable cross-national convergence in life expectancy will occur. Climate-induced fluctuations in agricultural yield will cause little excess childhood mortality from CDs, although other climate-health pathways were not explored. An optimistic scenario will produce 39 million fewer deaths in 2060 than a pessimistic one. Our forward linkage model suggests that an optimistic scenario would result in a 20% per cent increase in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, despite one billion additional people. Southern Asia would experience the greatest relative mortality reduction and the largest resulting benefit in per capita GDP. Long-term, integrated health forecasting helps us understand the links between health and other markers of human progress and offers powerful insight into key points of leverage for future improvements.

  3. High mortality of blue, humpback and fin whales from modeling of vessel collisions on the U.S. West Coast suggests population impacts and insufficient protection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R Cotton Rockwood

    Full Text Available Mortality from collisions with vessels is one of the main human causes of death for large whales. Ship strikes are rarely witnessed and the distribution of strike risk and estimates of mortality remain uncertain at best. We estimated ship strike mortality for blue humpback and fin whales in U.S. West Coast waters using a novel application of a naval encounter model. Mortality estimates from the model were far higher than current minimum estimates derived from stranding records and are closer to extrapolations adjusted for detection probabilities of dead whales. Our most conservative model estimated mortality to be 7.8x, 2.0x and 2.7x the U.S. recommended limit for blue, humpback and fin whales, respectively, suggesting that death from vessel collisions may be a significant impediment to population growth and recovery. Comparing across the study area, the majority of strike mortality occurs in waters off California, from Bodega Bay south and tends to be concentrated in a band approximately 24 Nm (44.5 km offshore and in designated shipping lanes leading to and from major ports. While some mortality risk exists across nearly all West Coast waters, 74%, 82% and 65% of blue, humpback and fin whale mortality, respectively, occurs in just 10% of the study area, suggesting conservation efforts can be very effective if focused in these waters. Risk is highest in the shipping lanes off San Francisco and Long Beach, but only a fraction of total estimated mortality occurs in these proportionally small areas, making any conservation efforts exclusively within these areas insufficient to address overall strike mortality. We recommend combining shipping lane modifications and re-locations, ship speed reductions and creation of 'Areas to be Avoided' by vessels in ecologically important locations to address this significant source of whale mortality.

  4. High mortality of blue, humpback and fin whales from modeling of vessel collisions on the U.S. West Coast suggests population impacts and insufficient protection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rockwood, R Cotton; Calambokidis, John; Jahncke, Jaime

    2017-01-01

    Mortality from collisions with vessels is one of the main human causes of death for large whales. Ship strikes are rarely witnessed and the distribution of strike risk and estimates of mortality remain uncertain at best. We estimated ship strike mortality for blue humpback and fin whales in U.S. West Coast waters using a novel application of a naval encounter model. Mortality estimates from the model were far higher than current minimum estimates derived from stranding records and are closer to extrapolations adjusted for detection probabilities of dead whales. Our most conservative model estimated mortality to be 7.8x, 2.0x and 2.7x the U.S. recommended limit for blue, humpback and fin whales, respectively, suggesting that death from vessel collisions may be a significant impediment to population growth and recovery. Comparing across the study area, the majority of strike mortality occurs in waters off California, from Bodega Bay south and tends to be concentrated in a band approximately 24 Nm (44.5 km) offshore and in designated shipping lanes leading to and from major ports. While some mortality risk exists across nearly all West Coast waters, 74%, 82% and 65% of blue, humpback and fin whale mortality, respectively, occurs in just 10% of the study area, suggesting conservation efforts can be very effective if focused in these waters. Risk is highest in the shipping lanes off San Francisco and Long Beach, but only a fraction of total estimated mortality occurs in these proportionally small areas, making any conservation efforts exclusively within these areas insufficient to address overall strike mortality. We recommend combining shipping lane modifications and re-locations, ship speed reductions and creation of 'Areas to be Avoided' by vessels in ecologically important locations to address this significant source of whale mortality.

  5. Form factors in the projected linear chiral sigma model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alberto, P.; Coimbra Univ.; Bochum Univ.; Ruiz Arriola, E.; Fiolhais, M.; Urbano, J.N.; Coimbra Univ.; Goeke, K.; Gruemmer, F.; Bochum Univ.

    1990-01-01

    Several nucleon form factors are computed within the framework of the linear chiral soliton model. To this end variational means and projection techniques applied to generalized hedgehog quark-boson Fock states are used. In this procedure the Goldberger-Treiman relation and a virial theorem for the pion-nucleon form factor are well fulfilled demonstrating the consistency of the treatment. Both proton and neutron charge form factors are correctly reproduced, as well as the proton magnetic one. The shapes of the neutron magnetic and of the axial form factors are good but their absolute values at the origin are too large. The slopes of all the form factors at zero momentum transfer are in good agreement with the experimental data. The pion-nucleon form factor exhibits to great extent a monopole shape with a cut-off mass of Λ=690 MeV. Electromagnetic form factors for the vertex γNΔ and the nucleon spin distribution are also evaluated and discussed. (orig.)

  6. Research on evaluation of enterprise project culture based on Denison model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yucheng Zeng

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to build enterprise project culture evaluation model and search for the best evaluation method for Chinese enterprise project culture on the basis of studying and drawing lessons from enterprise culture evaluation theory and method at home and abroad. Design/methodology/approach: Referring to the Denison enterprise culture evaluation model, this paper optimizes it according to the difference of enterprise project culture, designs the enterprise project culture evaluation model and proves the practicability of the model through empirical. Finding: This paper finds that it`s more applicable to use the Denison model for enterprise project culture evaluation through the comparative analysis of domestic and foreign enterprise culture evaluation theory and method, the systematic project culture management framework of Chinese enterprises has not yet formed through empirical research, and four factors in enterprise project culture have important influence on project operation performance improvement. Research limitations/implications: The research on evaluation of enterprise project culture based on Denison model is a preliminary attempt, the design of evaluation index system, evaluation model and scale structure also need to be improved, but the thinking of this paper in this field provides a valuable reference for future research. Practical Implications: This paper provides the support of theory and practice for evaluating the present situation of enterprise project culture construction and analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of project culture, which contributes to the "dialectical therapy" of enterprise project management, enterprise management and enterprise project culture construction. Originality/value: The main contribution of this paper is the introduction of Denison enterprise culture model. Combining with the actual situation of enterprises, this paper also builds the evaluation model for

  7. Modelling projections for the risks related with atrial fibrillation in East Asia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bai, Ying; Guo, Shi-Dong; Shantsila, Alena

    2017-01-01

    Aims: In the Far East, there has generally been low uptake of oral anticoagulants (OACs) using vitamin K antagonists (VKA, e.g. warfarin) for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (AF), but OAC use has been increasing more recently, with the introduction of the non-vitamin K antagonist oral...... anticoagulants (NOACs). To explore the risks of ischaemic stroke (IS) and death related to AF in East Asia using modelling projections. Methods and results: We performed a modelling analysis of possible trends of IS and death rates in AF patients from the time period of only VKA use to current increasing trends....... There was an estimated annual risk reduction of 5484 ISs and 1128 deaths from 2016 to 2030, respectively. The AF population is estimated to reach 861 900 in 2050, with a reduction of 206 315 ISs and 139 353 deaths. Conclusion: This modelling analysis suggests that the transition from VKA to NOACs may greatly help...

  8. Worldwide transportation/energy demand, 1975-2000. Revised Variflex model projections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ayres, R.U.; Ayres, L.W.

    1980-03-01

    The salient features of the transportation-energy relationships that characterize the world of 1975 are reviewed, and worldwide (34 countries) long-range transportation demand by mode to the year 2000 is reviewed. A worldwide model is used to estimate future energy demand for transportation. Projections made by the forecasting model indicate that in the year 2000, every region will be more dependent on petroleum for the transportation sector than it was in 1975. This report is intended to highlight certain trends and to suggest areas for further investigation. Forecast methodology and model output are described in detail in the appendices. The report is one of a series addressing transportation energy consumption; it supplants and replaces an earlier version published in October 1978 (ORNL/Sub-78/13536/1).

  9. BOT schemes as financial model of hydro power projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grausam, A.

    1997-01-01

    Build-operate-transfer (BOT) schemes are the latest methods adopted in the developing infrastructure projects. This paper outlines the project financing through BOT schemes and briefly focuses on the factors particularly relevant to hydro power projects. Hydro power development provides not only the best way to produce electricity, it can also solve problems in different fields, such as navigation problems in case of run-of-the river plants, ground water management systems and flood control etc. This makes HPP projects not cheaper, but hydro energy is a clean and renewable energy and the hydro potential worldwide will play a major role to meet the increased demand in future. 5 figs

  10. Disentangling unisensory from fusion effects in the attentional modulation of McGurk effects: a Bayesian modeling study suggests that fusion is attention-dependent

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwartz, Jean-Luc; Tiiippana, Kaisa; Andersen, Tobias

    2010-01-01

    The McGurk effect has been shown to be modulated by attention. However, it remains unclear whether attentional effects are due to changes in unisensory processing or in the fusion mechanism. In this paper, we used published experimental data showing that distraction of visual attention weakens th...... Selection criterion. Our findings suggest that distraction of visual attention affects fusion by decreasing the weight of the visual input.......The McGurk effect has been shown to be modulated by attention. However, it remains unclear whether attentional effects are due to changes in unisensory processing or in the fusion mechanism. In this paper, we used published experimental data showing that distraction of visual attention weakens...... the McGurk effect, to fit either the Fuzzy Logical Model of Perception (FLMP) in which the fusion mechanism is fixed, or a variant of it in which the fusion mechanism could be varied depending on attention. The latter model was associated with a larger likelihood when assessed with a Bayesian Model...

  11. High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0 for CMIP6

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. J. Haarsma

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Robust projections and predictions of climate variability and change, particularly at regional scales, rely on the driving processes being represented with fidelity in model simulations. The role of enhanced horizontal resolution in improved process representation in all components of the climate system is of growing interest, particularly as some recent simulations suggest both the possibility of significant changes in large-scale aspects of circulation as well as improvements in small-scale processes and extremes. However, such high-resolution global simulations at climate timescales, with resolutions of at least 50 km in the atmosphere and 0.25° in the ocean, have been performed at relatively few research centres and generally without overall coordination, primarily due to their computational cost. Assessing the robustness of the response of simulated climate to model resolution requires a large multi-model ensemble using a coordinated set of experiments. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6 is the ideal framework within which to conduct such a study, due to the strong link to models being developed for the CMIP DECK experiments and other model intercomparison projects (MIPs. Increases in high-performance computing (HPC resources, as well as the revised experimental design for CMIP6, now enable a detailed investigation of the impact of increased resolution up to synoptic weather scales on the simulated mean climate and its variability. The High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP presented in this paper applies, for the first time, a multi-model approach to the systematic investigation of the impact of horizontal resolution. A coordinated set of experiments has been designed to assess both a standard and an enhanced horizontal-resolution simulation in the atmosphere and ocean. The set of HighResMIP experiments is divided into three tiers consisting of atmosphere-only and coupled runs and spanning the period

  12. Parametric Anatomical Modeling: A method for modeling the anatomical layout of neurons and their projections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin ePyka

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Computational models of neural networks can be based on a variety of different parameters. These parameters include, for example, the 3d shape of neuron layers, the neurons' spatial projection patterns, spiking dynamics and neurotransmitter systems. While many well-developed approaches are available to model, for example, the spiking dynamics, there is a lack of approaches for modeling the anatomical layout of neurons and their projections. We present a new method, called Parametric Anatomical Modeling (PAM, to fill this gap. PAM can be used to derive network connectivities and conduction delays from anatomical data, such as the position and shape of the neuronal layers and the dendritic and axonal projection patterns. Within the PAM framework, several mapping techniques between layers can account for a large variety of connection properties between pre- and post-synaptic neuron layers. PAM is implemented as a Python tool and integrated in the 3d modeling software Blender. We demonstrate on a 3d model of the hippocampal formation how PAM can help reveal complex properties of the synaptic connectivity and conduction delays, properties that might be relevant to uncover the function of the hippocampus. Based on these analyses, two experimentally testable predictions arose: i the number of neurons and the spread of connections is heterogeneously distributed across the main anatomical axes, ii the distribution of connection lengths in CA3-CA1 differ qualitatively from those between DG-CA3 and CA3-CA3. Models created by PAM can also serve as an educational tool to visualize the 3d connectivity of brain regions. The low-dimensional, but yet biologically plausible, parameter space renders PAM suitable to analyse allometric and evolutionary factors in networks and to model the complexity of real networks with comparatively little effort.

  13. Parametric Anatomical Modeling: a method for modeling the anatomical layout of neurons and their projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyka, Martin; Klatt, Sebastian; Cheng, Sen

    2014-01-01

    Computational models of neural networks can be based on a variety of different parameters. These parameters include, for example, the 3d shape of neuron layers, the neurons' spatial projection patterns, spiking dynamics and neurotransmitter systems. While many well-developed approaches are available to model, for example, the spiking dynamics, there is a lack of approaches for modeling the anatomical layout of neurons and their projections. We present a new method, called Parametric Anatomical Modeling (PAM), to fill this gap. PAM can be used to derive network connectivities and conduction delays from anatomical data, such as the position and shape of the neuronal layers and the dendritic and axonal projection patterns. Within the PAM framework, several mapping techniques between layers can account for a large variety of connection properties between pre- and post-synaptic neuron layers. PAM is implemented as a Python tool and integrated in the 3d modeling software Blender. We demonstrate on a 3d model of the hippocampal formation how PAM can help reveal complex properties of the synaptic connectivity and conduction delays, properties that might be relevant to uncover the function of the hippocampus. Based on these analyses, two experimentally testable predictions arose: (i) the number of neurons and the spread of connections is heterogeneously distributed across the main anatomical axes, (ii) the distribution of connection lengths in CA3-CA1 differ qualitatively from those between DG-CA3 and CA3-CA3. Models created by PAM can also serve as an educational tool to visualize the 3d connectivity of brain regions. The low-dimensional, but yet biologically plausible, parameter space renders PAM suitable to analyse allometric and evolutionary factors in networks and to model the complexity of real networks with comparatively little effort.

  14. Solar Car, Solar Boat: Model Classroom Projects. Seattle Tech Prep.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seattle Community Coll. District, Washington.

    This booklet shows how teachers at Ingraham High School and Madison Middle School in Seattle (Washington) challenged their students to tackle demanding technical projects. It also shows how well the students responded to that challenge. The booklet begins with the background of the project, the framework for which would be a university-sponsored…

  15. Chapter 9 - Vegetation succession modeling for the LANDFIRE Prototype Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald Long; B. John (Jack) Losensky; Donald Bedunah

    2006-01-01

    One of the main objectives of the Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools Prototype Project, or LANDFIRE Prototype Project, was to determine departure of current vegetation conditions from the range and variation of conditions that existed during the historical era identified in the LANDFIRE guidelines as 1600-1900 A.D. (Keane and Rollins, Ch. 3). In...

  16. Simulated Models Suggest That Price per Calorie Is the Dominant Price Metric That Low-Income Individuals Use for Food Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beheshti, Rahmatollah; Igusa, Takeru; Jones-Smith, Jessica

    2016-11-01

    The price of food has long been considered one of the major factors that affects food choices. However, the price metric (e.g., the price of food per calorie or the price of food per gram) that individuals predominantly use when making food choices is unclear. Understanding which price metric is used is especially important for studying individuals with severe budget constraints because food price then becomes even more important in food choice. We assessed which price metric is used by low-income individuals in deciding what to eat. With the use of data from NHANES and the USDA Food and Nutrient Database for Dietary Studies, we created an agent-based model that simulated an environment representing the US population, wherein individuals were modeled as agents with a specific weight, age, and income. In our model, agents made dietary food choices while meeting their budget limits with the use of 1 of 3 different metrics for decision making: energy cost (price per calorie), unit price (price per gram), and serving price (price per serving). The food consumption patterns generated by our model were compared to 3 independent data sets. The food choice behaviors observed in 2 of the data sets were found to be closest to the simulated dietary patterns generated by the price per calorie metric. The behaviors observed in the third data set were equidistant from the patterns generated by price per calorie and price per serving metrics, whereas results generated by the price per gram metric were further away. Our simulations suggest that dietary food choice based on price per calorie best matches actual consumption patterns and may therefore be the most salient price metric for low-income populations. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.

  17. Model Diagnostics for the Department of Energy's Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, B.

    2015-12-01

    In 2014, eight Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories, four academic institutions, one company, and the National Centre for Atmospheric Research combined forces in a project called Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) with the goal to speed Earth system model development for climate and energy. Over the planned 10-year span, the project will conduct simulations and modeling on DOE's most powerful high-performance computing systems at Oak Ridge, Argonne, and Lawrence Berkeley Leadership Compute Facilities. A key component of the ACME project is the development of an interactive test bed for the advanced Earth system model. Its execution infrastructure will accelerate model development and testing cycles. The ACME Workflow Group is leading the efforts to automate labor-intensive tasks, provide intelligent support for complex tasks and reduce duplication of effort through collaboration support. As part of this new workflow environment, we have created a diagnostic, metric, and intercomparison Python framework, called UVCMetrics, to aid in the testing-to-production execution of the ACME model. The framework exploits similarities among different diagnostics to compactly support diagnosis of new models. It presently focuses on atmosphere and land but is designed to support ocean and sea ice model components as well. This framework is built on top of the existing open-source software framework known as the Ultrascale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UV-CDAT). Because of its flexible framework design, scientists and modelers now can generate thousands of possible diagnostic outputs. These diagnostics can compare model runs, compare model vs. observation, or simply verify a model is physically realistic. Additional diagnostics are easily integrated into the framework, and our users have already added several. Diagnostics can be generated, viewed, and manipulated from the UV-CDAT graphical user interface, Python command line scripts and programs

  18. Projected shell model analysis of multi-quasiparticle high-K isomers in sup 1 sup 7 sup 4 Hf

    CERN Document Server

    Zhou Xian Rong; Sun Yang; Long Gui Lu

    2002-01-01

    Multi-quasiparticle high-K states in sup 1 sup 7 sup 4 Hf are studied in the framework of the projected shell model. The calculation reproduces well the observed ground-state band as well as most of the two- and four-quasiparticle rotational bands. Some as yet unobserved high-K isomeric states in sup 1 sup 7 sup 4 Hf are predicted. Possible reasons for the existing discrepancies between calculation and experiment are discussed. It is suggested that the projected shell model may be a useful method for studying multi-quasiparticle high-K isomers and the K-mixing phenomenon in heavy deformed nuclei

  19. The modeled structure of the RNA dependent RNA polymerase of GBV-C Virus suggests a role for motif E in Flaviviridae RNA polymerases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dutartre Hélène

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Flaviviridae virus family includes major human and animal pathogens. The RNA dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp plays a central role in the replication process, and thus is a validated target for antiviral drugs. Despite the increasing structural and enzymatic characterization of viral RdRps, detailed molecular replication mechanisms remain unclear. The hepatitis C virus (HCV is a major human pathogen difficult to study in cultured cells. The bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV is often used as a surrogate model to screen antiviral drugs against HCV. The structure of BVDV RdRp has been recently published. It presents several differences relative to HCV RdRp. These differences raise questions about the relevance of BVDV as a surrogate model, and cast novel interest on the "GB" virus C (GBV-C. Indeed, GBV-C is genetically closer to HCV than BVDV, and can lead to productive infection of cultured cells. There is no structural data for the GBV-C RdRp yet. Results We show in this study that the GBV-C RdRp is closest to the HCV RdRp. We report a 3D model of the GBV-C RdRp, developed using sequence-to-structure threading and comparative modeling based on the atomic coordinates of the HCV RdRp structure. Analysis of the predicted structural features in the phylogenetic context of the RNA polymerase family allows rationalizing most of the experimental data available. Both available structures and our model are explored to examine the catalytic cleft, allosteric and substrate binding sites. Conclusion Computational methods were used to infer evolutionary relationships and to predict the structure of a viral RNA polymerase. Docking a GTP molecule into the structure allows defining a GTP binding pocket in the GBV-C RdRp, such as that of BVDV. The resulting model suggests a new proposition for the mechanism of RNA synthesis, and may prove useful to design new experiments to implement our knowledge on the initiation mechanism of RNA

  20. Housing Value Projection Model Related to Educational Planning: The Feasibility of a New Methodology. Final Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helbock, Richard W.; Marker, Gordon

    This study concerns the feasibility of a Markov chain model for projecting housing values and racial mixes. Such projections could be used in planning the layout of school districts to achieve desired levels of socioeconomic heterogeneity. Based upon the concepts and assumptions underlying a Markov chain model, it is concluded that such a model is…

  1. Metal Mixture Modeling Evaluation project: 2. Comparison of four modeling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farley, Kevin J.; Meyer, Joe; Balistrieri, Laurie S.; DeSchamphelaere, Karl; Iwasaki, Yuichi; Janssen, Colin; Kamo, Masashi; Lofts, Steve; Mebane, Christopher A.; Naito, Wataru; Ryan, Adam C.; Santore, Robert C.; Tipping, Edward

    2015-01-01

    As part of the Metal Mixture Modeling Evaluation (MMME) project, models were developed by the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (Japan), the U.S. Geological Survey (USA), HDR⎪HydroQual, Inc. (USA), and the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (UK) to address the effects of metal mixtures on biological responses of aquatic organisms. A comparison of the 4 models, as they were presented at the MMME Workshop in Brussels, Belgium (May 2012), is provided herein. Overall, the models were found to be similar in structure (free ion activities computed by WHAM; specific or non-specific binding of metals/cations in or on the organism; specification of metal potency factors and/or toxicity response functions to relate metal accumulation to biological response). Major differences in modeling approaches are attributed to various modeling assumptions (e.g., single versus multiple types of binding site on the organism) and specific calibration strategies that affected the selection of model parameters. The models provided a reasonable description of additive (or nearly additive) toxicity for a number of individual toxicity test results. Less-than-additive toxicity was more difficult to describe with the available models. Because of limitations in the available datasets and the strong inter-relationships among the model parameters (log KM values, potency factors, toxicity response parameters), further evaluation of specific model assumptions and calibration strategies is needed.

  2. A Physical Model Suggests That Hip-Localized Balance Sense in Birds Improves State Estimation in Perching: Implications for Bipedal Robots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darío Urbina-Meléndez

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In addition to a vestibular system, birds uniquely have a balance-sensing organ within the pelvis, called the lumbosacral organ (LSO. The LSO is well developed in terrestrial birds, possibly to facilitate balance control in perching and terrestrial locomotion. No previous studies have quantified the functional benefits of the LSO for balance. We suggest two main benefits of hip-localized balance sense: reduced sensorimotor delay and improved estimation of foot-ground acceleration. We used system identification to test the hypothesis that hip-localized balance sense improves estimates of foot acceleration compared to a head-localized sense, due to closer proximity to the feet. We built a physical model of a standing guinea fowl perched on a platform, and used 3D accelerometers at the hip and head to replicate balance sense by the LSO and vestibular systems. The horizontal platform was attached to the end effector of a 6 DOF robotic arm, allowing us to apply perturbations to the platform analogous to motions of a compliant branch. We also compared state estimation between models with low and high neck stiffness. Cross-correlations revealed that foot-to-hip sensing delays were shorter than foot-to-head, as expected. We used multi-variable output error state-space (MOESP system identification to estimate foot-ground acceleration as a function of hip- and head-localized sensing, individually and combined. Hip-localized sensors alone provided the best state estimates, which were not improved when fused with head-localized sensors. However, estimates from head-localized sensors improved with higher neck stiffness. Our findings support the hypothesis that hip-localized balance sense improves the speed and accuracy of foot state estimation compared to head-localized sense. The findings also suggest a role of neck muscles for active sensing for balance control: increased neck stiffness through muscle co-contraction can improve the utility of vestibular

  3. Chemistry and Climate in Asia - An Earth System Modeling Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barth, M. C.; Emmons, L. K.; Massie, S. T.; Pfister, G.; Romero Lankao, P.; Lamarque, J.; Carmichael, G. R.

    2011-12-01

    Asia is one of the most highly populated and economically dynamic regions in the world, with much of the population located in growing mega-cities. It is a region with significant emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and other pollutants, which pose high health risks to urban populations. Emissions of these aerosols and gases increased drastically over the last decade due to economic growth and urbanization and are expected to rise further in the near future. As such, the continent plays a role in influencing climate change via its effluent of aerosols and gaseous pollutants. Asia is also susceptible to adverse climate change through interactions between aerosols and clouds, which potentially can have serious implications for freshwater resources. We are developing an integrated inter-disciplinary program to focus on Asia, its climate, air quality, and impact on humans that will include connections with hydrology, ecosystems, extreme weather events, and human health. The primary goal of this project is to create a team to identify key scientific questions and establish networks of specialists to create a plan for future studies to address these questions. A second goal is to establish research facilities and a framework for investigating chemistry and climate over Asia. These facilities include producing high resolution Earth System Model simulations that have been evaluated with meteorological and chemical measurements, producing high-resolution emission inventories, analyzing satellite data, and analyzing the vulnerability of humans to air quality and extreme natural events. In this presentation we will describe in more detail these activities and discuss a future workshop on the impact of chemistry in climate on air quality and human health.

  4. Semi-structured data extraction and modelling: the WIA Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Mosca

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Over the last decades, the amount of data of all kinds available electronically has increased dramatically. Data are accessible through a range of interfaces including Web browsers, database query languages, application-specific interfaces, built on top of a number of different data exchange formats. All these data span from un-structured to highly structured data. Very often, some of them have structure even if the structure is implicit, and not as rigid or regular as that found in standard database systems. Spreadsheet documents are prototypical in this respect. Spreadsheets are the lightweight technology able to supply companies with easy to build business management and business intelligence applications, and business people largely adopt spreadsheets as smart vehicles for data files generation and sharing. Actually, the more spreadsheets grow in complexity (e.g., their use in product development plans and quoting, the more their arrangement, maintenance, and analysis appear as a knowledge-driven activity. The algorithmic approach to the problem of automatic data structure extraction from spreadsheet documents (i.e., grid-structured and free topological-related data emerges from the WIA project: Worksheets Intelligent Analyser. The WIA-algorithm shows how to provide a description of spreadsheet contents in terms of higher level of abstractions or conceptualisations. In particular, the WIA-algorithm target is about the extraction of i the calculus work-flow implemented in the spreadsheets formulas and ii the logical role played by the data which take part into the calculus. The aim of the resulting conceptualisations is to provide spreadsheets with abstract representations useful for further model refinements and optimizations through evolutionary algorithms computations.

  5. Mixed modeling of meta-analysis P-values (MixMAP suggests multiple novel gene loci for low density lipoprotein cholesterol.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea S Foulkes

    Full Text Available Informing missing heritability for complex disease will likely require leveraging information across multiple SNPs within a gene region simultaneously to characterize gene and locus-level contributions to disease phenotypes. To this aim, we introduce a novel strategy, termed Mixed modeling of Meta-Analysis P-values (MixMAP, that draws on a principled statistical modeling framework and the vast array of summary data now available from genetic association studies, to test formally for locus level association. The primary inputs to this approach are: (a single SNP level p-values for tests of association; and (b the mapping of SNPs to genomic regions. The output of MixMAP is comprised of locus level estimates and tests of association. In application of MixMAP to summary data from the Global Lipids Gene Consortium, we suggest twelve new loci (PKN, FN1, UGT1A1, PPARG, DMDGH, PPARD, CDK6, VPS13B, GAD2, GAB2, APOH and NPC1 for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C, a causal risk factor for cardiovascular disease and we also demonstrate the potential utility of MixMAP in small data settings. Overall, MixMAP offers novel and complementary information as compared to SNP-based analysis approaches and is straightforward to implement with existing open-source statistical software tools.

  6. Integrating Economic Models with Biophysical Models in the Willamette Water 2100 Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaeger, W. K.; Plantinga, A.

    2013-12-01

    This paper highlights the human system modeling components for Willamette Water 2100, a comprehensive, highly integrated study of hydrological, ecological, and human factors affecting water scarcity in the Willamette River Basin (WRB). The project is developing a spatiotemporal simulation model to predict future trajectories of water scarcity, and to evaluate mitigation policies. Economic models of land use and water use are the main human system models in WW2100. Water scarcity depends on both supply and demand for water, and varies greatly across time and space (Jaeger et al., 2013). Thus, the locations of human water use can have enormous influence on where and when water is used, and hence where water scarcity may arise. Modeling the locations of human uses of water (e.g., urban versus agricultural) as well as human values and choices, are the principal quantitative ways that social science can contribute to research of this kind. Our models are empirically-based models of human resource allocation. Each model reflects private behavior (choices by households, farms, firms), institutions (property rights, laws, markets, regulations), public infrastructure (dams, canals, highways), and also 'external drivers' that influence the local economy (migration, population growth, national markets and policies). This paper describes the main model components, emphasizing similarities between human and biophysical components of the overall project, and the model's linkages and feedbacks relevant to our predictions of changes in water scarcity between now and 2100. Results presented include new insights from individual model components as well as available results from the integrated system model. Issues include water scarcity and water quality (temperature) for out-of-stream and instream uses, the impact of urban expansion on water use and potential flood damage. Changes in timing and variability of spring discharge with climate change, as well as changes in human uses of

  7. Projection-simulated ametropia. A model for teaching subjective refraction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henningsen, M A; Guyton, D L

    1985-06-01

    Teaching subjective refraction techniques ("refractometry") is enhanced by having the student experience the effect of each lens change "through the eyes of the patient." A projector, positioned behind the phoropter, projects a visual acuity chart through the phoropter onto the far wall. "Unknown" refractive errors are simulated by attaching trial lenses to the lens barrel of the projector, and the student progressively clears the projected image as he learns the standard steps of subjective refractometry. The focus sensitivity of each lens change can be varied, if desired, by stopping down the projection system. This simulation, which uses equipment readily available in most ophthalmology offices, has proven useful for both demonstration and practice.

  8. Transport and metabolic degradation of hydrogen peroxide in Chara corallina: model calculations and measurements with the pressure probe suggest transport of H(2)O(2) across water channels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henzler, T; Steudle, E

    2000-12-01

    A mathematical model is presented that describes permeation of hydrogen peroxide across a cell membrane and the implications of solute decomposition by catalase inside the cell. The model was checked and analysed by means of a numerical calculation that raised predictions for measured osmotic pressure relaxation curves. Predictions were tested with isolated internodal cells of CHARA: corallina, a model system for investigating interactions between water and solute transport in plant cells. Series of biphasic osmotic pressure relaxation curves with different concentrations of H(2)O(2) of up to 350 mol m(-3) are presented. A detailed description of determination of permeability (P(s)) and reflection coefficients (sigma(s)) for H(2)O(2) is given in the presence of the chemical reaction in the cell. Mean values were P(s)=(3.6+/-1.0) 10(-6) m s(-1) and sigma(s)=(0.33+/-0.12) (+/-SD, N=6 cells). Besides transport properties, coefficients for the catalase reaction following a Michaelis-Menten type of kinetics were determined. Mean values of the Michaelis constant (k(M)) and the maximum rate of decompositon (v(max)) were k(M)=(85+/-55) mol m(-3) and v(max)=(49+/-40) nmol (s cell)(-1), respectively. The absolute values of P:(s) and sigma(s) of H(2)O(2) indicated that hydrogen peroxide, a molecule with chemical properties close to that of water, uses water channels (aquaporins) to cross the cell membrane rapidly. When water channels were inhibited with the blocker mercuric chloride (HgCl(2)), the permeabilities of both water and H(2)O(2) were substantially reduced. In fact, for the latter, it was not measurable. It is suggested that some of the water channels in CHARA: (and, perhaps, in other species) serve as 'peroxoporins' rather than as 'aquaporins'.

  9. A spatially explicit metapopulation model and cattle trade analysis suggests key determinants for the recurrent circulation of rift valley Fever virus in a pilot area of madagascar highlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolas, Gaëlle; Chevalier, Véronique; Tantely, Luciano Michaël; Fontenille, Didier; Durand, Benoît

    2014-12-01

    Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne zoonotic disease that causes high morbidity and mortality in ruminants. In 2008-2009, a RVF outbreak affected the whole Madagascar island, including the Anjozorobe district located in Madagascar highlands. An entomological survey showed the absence of Aedes among the potential RVF virus (RVFV) vector species identified in this area, and an overall low abundance of mosquitoes due to unfavorable climatic conditions during winter. No serological nor virological sign of infection was observed in wild terrestrial mammals of the area, suggesting an absence of wild RVF virus (RVFV) reservoir. However, a three years serological and virological follow-up in cattle showed a recurrent RVFV circulation. The objective of this study was to understand the key determinants of this unexpected recurrent transmission. To achieve this goal, a spatial deterministic discrete-time metapopulation model combined with cattle trade network was designed and parameterized to reproduce the local conditions using observational data collected in the area. Three scenarios that could explain the RVFV recurrent circulation in the area were analyzed: (i) RVFV overwintering thanks to a direct transmission between cattle when viraemic cows calve, vectors being absent during the winter, (ii) a low level vector-based circulation during winter thanks to a residual vector population, without direct transmission between cattle, (iii) combination of both above mentioned mechanisms. Multi-model inference methods resulted in a model incorporating both a low level RVFV winter vector-borne transmission and a direct transmission between animals when viraemic cows calve. Predictions satisfactorily reproduced field observations, 84% of cattle infections being attributed to vector-borne transmission, and 16% to direct transmission. These results appeared robust according to the sensitivity analysis. Interweaving between agricultural works in rice fields, seasonality of

  10. A spatially explicit metapopulation model and cattle trade analysis suggests key determinants for the recurrent circulation of rift valley Fever virus in a pilot area of madagascar highlands.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaëlle Nicolas

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Rift Valley fever (RVF is a vector-borne zoonotic disease that causes high morbidity and mortality in ruminants. In 2008-2009, a RVF outbreak affected the whole Madagascar island, including the Anjozorobe district located in Madagascar highlands. An entomological survey showed the absence of Aedes among the potential RVF virus (RVFV vector species identified in this area, and an overall low abundance of mosquitoes due to unfavorable climatic conditions during winter. No serological nor virological sign of infection was observed in wild terrestrial mammals of the area, suggesting an absence of wild RVF virus (RVFV reservoir. However, a three years serological and virological follow-up in cattle showed a recurrent RVFV circulation. The objective of this study was to understand the key determinants of this unexpected recurrent transmission. To achieve this goal, a spatial deterministic discrete-time metapopulation model combined with cattle trade network was designed and parameterized to reproduce the local conditions using observational data collected in the area. Three scenarios that could explain the RVFV recurrent circulation in the area were analyzed: (i RVFV overwintering thanks to a direct transmission between cattle when viraemic cows calve, vectors being absent during the winter, (ii a low level vector-based circulation during winter thanks to a residual vector population, without direct transmission between cattle, (iii combination of both above mentioned mechanisms. Multi-model inference methods resulted in a model incorporating both a low level RVFV winter vector-borne transmission and a direct transmission between animals when viraemic cows calve. Predictions satisfactorily reproduced field observations, 84% of cattle infections being attributed to vector-borne transmission, and 16% to direct transmission. These results appeared robust according to the sensitivity analysis. Interweaving between agricultural works in rice fields

  11. A functional-dynamic reflection on participatory processes in modeling projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidl, Roman

    2015-12-01

    The participation of nonscientists in modeling projects/studies is increasingly employed to fulfill different functions. However, it is not well investigated if and how explicitly these functions and the dynamics of a participatory process are reflected by modeling projects in particular. In this review study, I explore participatory modeling projects from a functional-dynamic process perspective. The main differences among projects relate to the functions of participation-most often, more than one per project can be identified, along with the degree of explicit reflection (i.e., awareness and anticipation) on the dynamic process perspective. Moreover, two main approaches are revealed: participatory modeling covering diverse approaches and companion modeling. It becomes apparent that the degree of reflection on the participatory process itself is not always explicit and perfectly visible in the descriptions of the modeling projects. Thus, the use of common protocols or templates is discussed to facilitate project planning, as well as the publication of project results. A generic template may help, not in providing details of a project or model development, but in explicitly reflecting on the participatory process. It can serve to systematize the particular project's approach to stakeholder collaboration, and thus quality management.

  12. NASA GRC UAS Project - Communications Modeling and Simulation Development Status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apaza, Rafael; Bretmersky, Steven; Dailey, Justin; Satapathy, Goutam; Ditzenberger, David; Ye, Chris; Kubat, Greg; Chevalier, Christine; Nguyen, Thanh

    2014-01-01

    The integration of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) in the National Airspace represents new operational concepts required in civil aviation. These new concepts are evolving as the nation moves toward the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) under the leadership of the Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO), and through ongoing work by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The desire and ability to fly UAS in the National Air Space (NAS) in the near term has increased dramatically, and this multi-agency effort to develop and implement a national plan to successfully address the challenges of UAS access to the NAS in a safe and timely manner is well underway. As part of the effort to integrate UAS in the National Airspace, NASA Glenn Research Center is currently involved with providing research into Communications systems and Communication system operations in order to assist with developing requirements for this implementation. In order to provide data and information regarding communication systems performance that will be necessary, NASA GRC is tasked with developing and executing plans for simulations of candidate future UAS command and control communications, in line with architectures and communications technologies being developed and or proposed by NASA and relevant aviation organizations (in particular, RTCA SC-203). The simulations and related analyses will provide insight into the ability of proposed communications technologies and system architectures to enable safe operation of UAS, meeting UAS in the NAS project goals (including performance requirements, scalability, and interoperability), and ultimately leading to a determination of the ability of NextGen communication systems to accommodate UAS. This presentation, compiled by the NASA GRC Modeling and Simulation team, will provide an update to this ongoing effort at NASA GRC as follow-up to the overview of the planned simulation effort presented at ICNS in 2013. The objective

  13. A model-based telecoupling analysis for the Patagonian shelf: a new suggested template on how to study global seabirds-fisheries interactions for sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huettmann, F.; Raya Rey, A.

    2016-12-01

    The Southwest Atlantic Ocean, and the extended Patagonian shelf in particular, presents us with a very complex ecosystem of global relevance for food security and global peace. It is a highly productive area and it maintains a great diversity and abundance of seabird species. Fisheries have been identified as a main stressor for the marine ecosystems and as one of the main causes of seabird population declines. Using the framework of telecoupling - a sophisticated description of natural and socioeconomic interactions over large distances - here we present a fresh holistic look at the dynamic fisheries and (endangered) seabird interactions for the Patagonian shelf. While data are sparse, we employ machine learning-based predictions for a more holistic overview. We found that these waters of the Patagonian Shelf are significantly affected by many nations and outside players. We found that the input, output and spill-over of the Patagonian shelf ecosystem are distributed virtually all over the globe. In addition, we also found `losers' (=nations and their citizens that are left out entirely from this global resource and its governance). Our findings are based on best-available public trade and fish harvest analysis for this region, linked with predictive modeling (machine learning and geographic information systems GIS) to generalize for nine seabird species. We conveniently extend this analysis with a perspective from the financial sector and policy that enables the Patagonian fisheries as international investment and development projects. As increasingly recognized elsewhere, we believe that telecoupling can serve as a new but rather sophisticated study template highlighting wider complexities, bottlenecks and sensitivities for a vastly improved conservation research on oceans and global sustainability questions.

  14. MODEL OF INTEGRATED VALUE OF PROJECTS IN THE FIELD OF ALTERNATIVE ENERGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Наталія Ігорівна БОРИСОВА

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Development of alternative energy sources requires the implementation of complex problems, the solution of which is necessary to apply the project approach. The uniqueness of alternative energy projects (AEP necessitates individual approach to evaluating the effectiveness of each. The paper contains the results of the project management features's analysis in the field of alternative energy, determining the values and developing of the value management integrated conceptual model of AEP. In assessing the effectiveness of AEP considered the socio-economic and commercial aspects. Value management integrated conceptual model of AEP was obtained by combining the classical model of the project management goals with the project values model "Five "E" and two "A". The classical model of the project management goals have been complemented with risk parameters.

  15. Global food insecurity. treatment of major food crops with elevated carbon dioxide or ozone under large-scale fully open-air conditions suggests recent models may have overestimated future yields.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Stephen P; Ainsworth, Elizabeth A; Leakey, Andrew D B; Morgan, Patrick B

    2005-11-29

    Predictions of yield for the globe's major grain and legume arable crops suggest that, with a moderate temperature increase, production may increase in the temperate zone, but decline in the tropics. In total, global food supply may show little change. This security comes from inclusion of the direct effect of rising carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, [CO2], which significantly stimulates yield by decreasing photorespiration in C3 crops and transpiration in all crops. Evidence for a large response to [CO2] is largely based on studies made within chambers at small scales, which would be considered unacceptable for standard agronomic trials of new cultivars or agrochemicals. Yet, predictions of the globe's future food security are based on such inadequate information. Free-Air Concentration Enrichment (FACE) technology now allows investigation of the effects of rising [CO2] and ozone on field crops under fully open-air conditions at an agronomic scale. Experiments with rice, wheat, maize and soybean show smaller increases in yield than anticipated from studies in chambers. Experiments with increased ozone show large yield losses (20%), which are not accounted for in projections of global food security. These findings suggest that current projections of global food security are overoptimistic. The fertilization effect of CO2 is less than that used in many models, while rising ozone will cause large yield losses in the Northern Hemisphere. Unfortunately, FACE studies have been limited in geographical extent and interactive effects of CO2, ozone and temperature have yet to be studied. Without more extensive study of the effects of these changes at an agronomic scale in the open air, our ever-more sophisticated models will continue to have feet of clay.

  16. HB-Line Special Nuclear Material Campaigns: Model-Based Project Management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    CHANG, ROBERT

    2004-01-01

    This study is to show how a model was used to enable management to better estimate production capabilities to ensure contract milestones/commitments are met, to cope with fast changing project baselines and project missions, to ensure the project will meet the negotiated throughput, and to eliminate unnecessary but costly design changes

  17. Experience of Hungarian model project: 'Strengthening training for operational safety at Paks NPP'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiss, I.

    1998-01-01

    Training of Operational Safety at Paks NPP is described including all the features of the project including namely: description of Paks NPP, its properties and performances; reasons for establishing Hungarian Model Project, its main goals, mentioning Hungarian and IAEA experts involved in the Project, its organization, operation, budget, current status together with its short term and long term impact

  18. Collaborative Project. A Flexible Atmospheric Modeling Framework for the Community Earth System Model (CESM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gettelman, Andrew [University Corporation For Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)

    2015-10-01

    In this project we have been upgrading the Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), also known as Super-Parameterized CAM (SP-CAM). This has included a major effort to update the coding standards and interface with CAM so that it can be placed on the main development trunk. It has also included development of a new software structure for CAM to be able to handle sub-grid column information. These efforts have formed the major thrust of the work.

  19. The Analysis of Several Models of Investment Value of Logistics Project Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ke Qiu Cheng Zhou

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The study of the logistics project evaluation model features reviews the traditional value evaluation model. On the basis of this, using the fuzzy theory, we establish several logistics project evaluation models under fuzzy environment. The analysis of the respective characteristics and the comparison of the calculated results of the three models show that these models are important methods of investment value of logistics evaluation.

  20. How Do Artifact Models Help Direct SPI Projects?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuhrmann, Marco; Richardson, Ita

    2015-01-01

    To overcome shortcomings associated with software process improvement (SPI), we previously recommended that process engineers focus on the artifacts to be developed in SPI projects. These artifacts should define desired outcomes, rather than specific methods. During this prior research, we...

  1. Cost estimate modeling of transportation management plans for highway projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-01

    Highway rehabilitation and reconstruction projects frequently cause road congestion and increase safety concerns while limiting access for road users. State Transportation Agencies (STAs) are challenged to find safer and more efficient ways to renew ...

  2. Risks of ocean acidification in the California Current food web and fisheries: ecosystem model projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Kristin N; Kaplan, Isaac C; Hodgson, Emma E; Hermann, Albert; Busch, D Shallin; McElhany, Paul; Essington, Timothy E; Harvey, Chris J; Fulton, Elizabeth A

    2017-04-01

    The benefits and ecosystem services that humans derive from the oceans are threatened by numerous global change stressors, one of which is ocean acidification. Here, we describe the effects of ocean acidification on an upwelling system that already experiences inherently low pH conditions, the California Current. We used an end-to-end ecosystem model (Atlantis), forced by downscaled global climate models and informed by a meta-analysis of the pH sensitivities of local taxa, to investigate the direct and indirect effects of future pH on biomass and fisheries revenues. Our model projects a 0.2-unit drop in pH during the summer upwelling season from 2013 to 2063, which results in wide-ranging magnitudes of effects across guilds and functional groups. The most dramatic direct effects of future pH may be expected on epibenthic invertebrates (crabs, shrimps, benthic grazers, benthic detritivores, bivalves), and strong indirect effects expected on some demersal fish, sharks, and epibenthic invertebrates (Dungeness crab) because they consume species known to be sensitive to changing pH. The model's pelagic community, including marine mammals and seabirds, was much less influenced by future pH. Some functional groups were less affected to changing pH in the model than might be expected from experimental studies in the empirical literature due to high population productivity (e.g., copepods, pteropods). Model results suggest strong effects of reduced pH on nearshore state-managed invertebrate fisheries, but modest effects on the groundfish fishery because individual groundfish species exhibited diverse responses to changing pH. Our results provide a set of projections that generally support and build upon previous findings and set the stage for hypotheses to guide future modeling and experimental analysis on the effects of OA on marine ecosystems and fisheries. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Defining and implementing a model for pharmacy resident research projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dick TB

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To describe a standard approach to provide a support structure for pharmacy resident research that emphasizes self-identification of a residency research project. Methods: A subcommittee of the residency advisory committee was formed at our institution. The committee was initially comprised of 2 clinical pharmacy specialists, 1 drug information pharmacist, and 2 pharmacy administrators. The committee developed research guidelines that are distributed to residents prior to the residency start that detail the research process, important deadlines, and available resources. Instructions for institutional review board (IRB training and deadlines for various assignments and presentations throughout the residency year are clearly defined. Residents conceive their own research project and emphasis is placed on completing assignments early in the residency year. Results: In the 4 years this research process has been in place, 15 of 16 (94% residents successfully identified their own research question. All 15 residents submitted a complete research protocol to the IRB by the August deadline. Four residents have presented the results of their research at multi-disciplinary national professional meetings and 1 has published a manuscript. Feedback from outgoing residents has been positive overall and their perceptions of their research projects and the process are positive. Conclusion: Pharmacy residents selecting their own research projects for their residency year is a feasible alternative to assigning or providing lists of research projects from which to select a project.

  4. High-Quality 3d Models and Their Use in a Cultural Heritage Conservation Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucci, G.; Bonora, V.; Conti, A.; Fiorini, L.

    2017-08-01

    Cultural heritage digitization and 3D modelling processes are mainly based on laser scanning and digital photogrammetry techniques to produce complete, detailed and photorealistic three-dimensional surveys: geometric as well as chromatic aspects, in turn testimony of materials, work techniques, state of preservation, etc., are documented using digitization processes. The paper explores the topic of 3D documentation for conservation purposes; it analyses how geomatics contributes in different steps of a restoration process and it presents an overview of different uses of 3D models for the conservation and enhancement of the cultural heritage. The paper reports on the project to digitize the earthenware frieze of the Ospedale del Ceppo in Pistoia (Italy) for 3D documentation, restoration work support, and digital and physical reconstruction and integration purposes. The intent to design an exhibition area suggests new ways to take advantage of 3D data originally acquired for documentation and scientific purposes.

  5. Incorporating variability in simulations of seasonally forced phenology using integral projection models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodsman, Devin W; Aukema, Brian H; McDowell, Nate G; Middleton, Richard S; Xu, Chonggang

    2018-01-01

    Phenology models are becoming increasingly important tools to accurately predict how climate change will impact the life histories of organisms. We propose a class of integral projection phenology models derived from stochastic individual-based models of insect development and demography. Our derivation, which is based on the rate summation concept, produces integral projection models that capture the effect of phenotypic rate variability on insect phenology, but which are typically more computationally frugal than equivalent individual-based phenology models. We demonstrate our approach using a temperature-dependent model of the demography of the mountain pine beetle ( Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins), an insect that kills mature pine trees. This work illustrates how a wide range of stochastic phenology models can be reformulated as integral projection models. Due to their computational efficiency, these integral projection models are suitable for deployment in large-scale simulations, such as studies of altered pest distributions under climate change.

  6. COGNITIVE MODELING AS A METHOD OF QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS OF IT PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Інна Ігорівна ОНИЩЕНКО

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The example project implementing automated CRM-system demonstrated the possibility and features of cognitive modeling in the qualitative analysis of project risks to determine their additional features. Proposed construction of cognitive models of project risks in information technology within the qualitative risk analysis, additional assessments as a method of ranking risk to characterize the relationship between them. The proposed cognitive model reflecting the relationship between the risk of IT project to assess the negative and the positive impact of certain risks for the remaining risks of project implementation of the automated CRM-system. The ability to influence the risk of a fact of other project risks can increase the priority of risk with low impact on results due to its relationship with other project risks.

  7. Technological Innovation Projects: Proposal For an Integrative Model Between Project Management and Knowledge Management in a Customer-Supplier Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edval da Silva Tavares

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In face of strong competition, companies in Brazil have increased their financial investments in automation, offering new products and services and reducing operating costs. These companies are focusing their efforts on core competencies and, therefore, they often lack the internal expertise to implement new projects, especially those that bring technological innovation. For this reason, we use the processes of outsourcing or subcontracting to help implement such projects. The unit of analysis in this study is the project and the object of the study to analyze the process of knowledge transfer from a provider to a customer during the duration of the project, which involves new technologies. The main motivation of this work is to address the acquisition and retention of new knowledge related to projects designed for business customers. We have developed a study of three cases of multiple financial firms that buy new technologies and two suppliers of information technology. As a practical result, a management model of knowledge transfer and retention of knowledge in client companies is proposed and incorporated into project management.

  8. Ecological Modeling for Military Land Use Decision Support: Interim Progress Report for Ecological Modeling (Project CS/758/4567)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Dale, Virginia

    1996-01-01

    .... The ecological models implemented as part of this project are components of the Conservation Thrust's "DoD Land Management Toolbox" and are compatible with the Integrated Dynamic Landscape Analysis and Modeling System ÎDLAMS...

  9. Metabolic profiling of synovial fluid in a unilateral ovine model of anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction of the knee suggests biomarkers for early osteoarthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mickiewicz, Beata; Heard, Bryan J; Chau, Johnny K; Chung, May; Hart, David A; Shrive, Nigel G; Frank, Cyril B; Vogel, Hans J

    2015-01-01

    Joint injuries and subsequent osteoarthritis (OA) are the leading causes of chronic joint disease. In this work, we explore the possibility of applying magnetic resonance spectroscopy-based metabolomics to detect host responses to an anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction injury in synovial fluid in an ovine model. Using multivariate statistical analysis, we were able to distinguish post-injury joint samples (ACL and sham surgery) from the uninjured control samples, and as well the ACL surgical samples from sham surgery. In all samples there were 65 metabolites quantified, of which six could be suggested as biomarkers for early post-injury degenerative changes in the knee joints: isobutyrate, glucose, hydroxyproline, asparagine, serine, and uridine. Our results raise a cautionary note indicating that surgical interventions into the knee can result in metabolic alterations that need to be distinguished from those caused by the early onset of OA. Our findings illustrate the potential application of metabolomics as a diagnostic and prognostic tool for detection of injuries to the knee joint. The ability to detect a unique pattern of metabolic changes in the synovial fluid of sheep offers the possibility of extending the approach to precision medicine protocols in patient populations in the future. © 2014 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. Stand-alone Inverter: Reviews, Models and Tests the exist system in Term of the Power Quality, and Suggestions to Design it

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Algaddafi

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Developments in power electronics have enabled the widespread application of Pulse Width Modulation (PWM inverters, notably for obtaining electricity from renewable systems. This paper critical review the previous studies in designing stand-alone inverter and modelling the inverter with two control loops to improve and provide a high-quality power of a stand-alone inverter. Multi-loop control techniques for a stand-alone inverter are utilised as the first loop is a capacitor current control to provide active damping and improve transient and steady state inverter performance. The capacitor current control is cheaper than inductor current control, where a small current sensing resistor is used. The second loop is the output voltage control that is used to improve the system performance and also control the output voltage. The power quality of the off-grid system is measured experimentally and compared with the grid power, showing power quality of off-grid system to be better than that of the grid. The suggestions and key findings to design the stand-alone inverter are given based in the reviewing of previous publications and from the literature’s point of view.

  11. Exploring the uncertainties of early detection results: model-based interpretation of mayo lung project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Berman Barbara

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Mayo Lung Project (MLP, a randomized controlled clinical trial of lung cancer screening conducted between 1971 and 1986 among male smokers aged 45 or above, demonstrated an increase in lung cancer survival since the time of diagnosis, but no reduction in lung cancer mortality. Whether this result necessarily indicates a lack of mortality benefit for screening remains controversial. A number of hypotheses have been proposed to explain the observed outcome, including over-diagnosis, screening sensitivity, and population heterogeneity (initial difference in lung cancer risks between the two trial arms. This study is intended to provide model-based testing for some of these important arguments. Method Using a micro-simulation model, the MISCAN-lung model, we explore the possible influence of screening sensitivity, systematic error, over-diagnosis and population heterogeneity. Results Calibrating screening sensitivity, systematic error, or over-diagnosis does not noticeably improve the fit of the model, whereas calibrating population heterogeneity helps the model predict lung cancer incidence better. Conclusions Our conclusion is that the hypothesized imperfection in screening sensitivity, systematic error, and over-diagnosis do not in themselves explain the observed trial results. Model fit improvement achieved by accounting for population heterogeneity suggests a higher risk of cancer incidence in the intervention group as compared with the control group.

  12. Linking models of human behaviour and climate alters projected climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beckage, Brian; Gross, Louis J.; Lacasse, Katherine; Carr, Eric; Metcalf, Sara S.; Winter, Jonathan M.; Howe, Peter D.; Fefferman, Nina; Franck, Travis; Zia, Asim; Kinzig, Ann; Hoffman, Forrest M.

    2018-01-01

    Although not considered in climate models, perceived risk stemming from extreme climate events may induce behavioural changes that alter greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we link the C-ROADS climate model to a social model of behavioural change to examine how interactions between perceived risk and emissions behaviour influence projected climate change. Our coupled climate and social model resulted in a global temperature change ranging from 3.4-6.2 °C by 2100 compared with 4.9 °C for the C-ROADS model alone, and led to behavioural uncertainty that was of a similar magnitude to physical uncertainty (2.8 °C versus 3.5 °C). Model components with the largest influence on temperature were the functional form of response to extreme events, interaction of perceived behavioural control with perceived social norms, and behaviours leading to sustained emissions reductions. Our results suggest that policies emphasizing the appropriate attribution of extreme events to climate change and infrastructural mitigation may reduce climate change the most.

  13. Project desk evaluation of a model project CPR/5/009 industrial scale irradiation of rice and other foodstuffs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-11-01

    The project CPR/5/009 was approved in 1993 as a model project. The project objective was to build an industrial food irradiation facility for high quality rice and other foodstuffs, with a processing capacity of 5000-9000 tonnes per year. This capacity is large compared to many other facilities of the same type elsewhere. The success of the project waste to be measured against the full utilization of the facility with an acceptable availability factor. Disbursements on Agency inputs up to the end of June 1996 were $294,716 and consisted of one 100 kCi Co-60 source, quality control equipment, bag heat sealers, one expert mission and 13.5 months of training abroad. The current budget is $323,870, following two programme changes. The total cost of the project was estimated at $1,331,300 with the Chinese Government providing the balance. The major conclusions of this evaluation are as follows: Initially, the Agency overestimated the project and business management experience of the counterpart, and consequently underestimated the extent of support required. Providing support to counterparts in facing the key challenges of project management and business operation must be considered by the Agency in future projects of this type. The counterpart institution is also encouraged to emphasize these management issues in order to maximize sustainable and cost-effective utilization of such facilities. A new operational plan has been prepared by the counterpart for 1996 through 1998 which identifies seven customers requiring treatment of a total of 1000 tonnes per year of cereal grains and 1500 tonnes per year of other foodstuffs. This plan reflects a change in overall emphasis from supporting food supply security to ensuring the safety of foodstuffs. It is not clear whether this plan will support operation of the facility at full capacity. The team in place to operate the facility also needs further strengthening. (author). Figs, tabs

  14. Funding Medical Research Projects: Taking into Account Referees' Severity and Consistency through Many-Faceted Rasch Modeling of Projects' Scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tesio, Luigi; Simone, Anna; Grzeda, Mariuzs T; Ponzio, Michela; Dati, Gabriele; Zaratin, Paola; Perucca, Laura; Battaglia, Mario A

    2015-01-01

    The funding policy of research projects often relies on scores assigned by a panel of experts (referees). The non-linear nature of raw scores and the severity and inconsistency of individual raters may generate unfair numeric project rankings. Rasch measurement (many-facets version, MFRM) provides a valid alternative to scoring. MFRM was applied to the scores achieved by 75 research projects on multiple sclerosis sent in response to a previous annual call by FISM-Italian Foundation for Multiple Sclerosis. This allowed to simulate, a posteriori, the impact of MFRM on the funding scenario. The applications were each scored by 2 to 4 independent referees (total = 131) on a 10-item, 0-3 rating scale called FISM-ProQual-P. The rotation plan assured "connection" of all pairs of projects through at least 1 shared referee.The questionnaire fulfilled satisfactorily the stringent criteria of Rasch measurement for psychometric quality (unidimensionality, reliability and data-model fit). Arbitrarily, 2 acceptability thresholds were set at a raw score of 21/30 and at the equivalent Rasch measure of 61.5/100, respectively. When the cut-off was switched from score to measure 8 out of 18 acceptable projects had to be rejected, while 15 rejected projects became eligible for funding. Some referees, of various severity, were grossly inconsistent (z-std fit indexes less than -1.9 or greater than 1.9). The FISM-ProQual-P questionnaire seems a valid and reliable scale. MFRM may help the decision-making process for allocating funds to MS research projects but also in other fields. In repeated assessment exercises it can help the selection of reliable referees. Their severity can be steadily calibrated, thus obviating the need to connect them with other referees assessing the same projects.

  15. Integrative modeling of eQTLs and cis-regulatory elements suggests mechanisms underlying cell type specificity of eQTLs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher D Brown

    Full Text Available Genetic variants in cis-regulatory elements or trans-acting regulators frequently influence the quantity and spatiotemporal distribution of gene transcription. Recent interest in expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL mapping has paralleled the adoption of genome-wide association studies (GWAS for the analysis of complex traits and disease in humans. Under the hypothesis that many GWAS associations tag non-coding SNPs with small effects, and that these SNPs exert phenotypic control by modifying gene expression, it has become common to interpret GWAS associations using eQTL data. To fully exploit the mechanistic interpretability of eQTL-GWAS comparisons, an improved understanding of the genetic architecture and causal mechanisms of cell type specificity of eQTLs is required. We address this need by performing an eQTL analysis in three parts: first we identified eQTLs from eleven studies on seven cell types; then we integrated eQTL data with cis-regulatory element (CRE data from the ENCODE project; finally we built a set of classifiers to predict the cell type specificity of eQTLs. The cell type specificity of eQTLs is associated with eQTL SNP overlap with hundreds of cell type specific CRE classes, including enhancer, promoter, and repressive chromatin marks, regions of open chromatin, and many classes of DNA binding proteins. These associations provide insight into the molecular mechanisms generating the cell type specificity of eQTLs and the mode of regulation of corresponding eQTLs. Using a random forest classifier with cell specific CRE-SNP overlap as features, we demonstrate the feasibility of predicting the cell type specificity of eQTLs. We then demonstrate that CREs from a trait-associated cell type can be used to annotate GWAS associations in the absence of eQTL data for that cell type. We anticipate that such integrative, predictive modeling of cell specificity will improve our ability to understand the mechanistic basis of human

  16. Demonstrating sustainable energy: A review-based model of sustainable energy demonstration projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bossink, Bart

    2017-01-01

    This article develops a model of sustainable energy demonstration projects, based on a review of 229 scientific publications on demonstrations in renewable and sustainable energy. The model addresses the basic organizational characteristics (aim, cooperative form, and physical location) and learning

  17. Compilation Of An Econometric Human Resource Efficiency Model For Project Management Best Practices

    OpenAIRE

    G. van Zyl; P. Venier

    2006-01-01

    The aim of the paper is to introduce a human resource efficiency model in order to rank the most important human resource driving forces for project management best practices. The results of the model will demonstrate how the human resource component of project management acts as the primary function to enhance organizational performance, codified through improved logical end-state programmes, work ethics and process contributions. Given the hypothesis that project management best practices i...

  18. Understanding and managing three-dimensional/four-dimensional model implementations at the project team level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartmann, Timo; Levitt, R.

    2010-01-01

    This paper introduces an extant, theoretical, social-psychological model that explains the sense-making processes of project managers confronted with a new technology to improve our understanding of project-based innovation processes. The model represents the interlinked processes through which

  19. Hydrological Modeling in the Bull Run Watershed in Support of a Piloting Utility Modeling Applications (PUMA) Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nijssen, B.; Chiao, T. H.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Vano, J. A.

    2016-12-01

    Hydrologic models with varying complexities and structures are commonly used to evaluate the impact of climate change on future hydrology. While the uncertainties in future climate projections are well documented, uncertainties in streamflow projections associated with hydrologic model structure and parameter estimation have received less attention. In this study, we implemented and calibrated three hydrologic models (the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), and the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC)) for the Bull Run watershed in northern Oregon using consistent data sources and best practice calibration protocols. The project was part of a Piloting Utility Modeling Applications (PUMA) project with the Portland Water Bureau (PWB) under the umbrella of the Water Utility Climate Alliance (WUCA). Ultimately PWB would use the model evaluation to select a model to perform in-house climate change analysis for Bull Run Watershed. This presentation focuses on the experimental design of the comparison project, project findings and the collaboration between the team at the University of Washington and at PWB. After calibration, the three models showed similar capability to reproduce seasonal and inter-annual variations in streamflow, but differed in their ability to capture extreme events. Furthermore, the annual and seasonal hydrologic sensitivities to changes in climate forcings differed among models, potentially attributable to different model representations of snow and vegetation processes.

  20. Power Grid Construction Project Portfolio Optimization Based on Bi-level programming model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Erdong; Li, Shangqi

    2017-08-01

    As the main body of power grid operation, county-level power supply enterprises undertake an important emission to guarantee the security of power grid operation and safeguard social power using order. The optimization of grid construction projects has been a key issue of power supply capacity and service level of grid enterprises. According to the actual situation of power grid construction project optimization of county-level power enterprises, on the basis of qualitative analysis of the projects, this paper builds a Bi-level programming model based on quantitative analysis. The upper layer of the model is the target restriction of the optimal portfolio; the lower layer of the model is enterprises’ financial restrictions on the size of the enterprise project portfolio. Finally, using a real example to illustrate operation proceeding and the optimization result of the model. Through qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, the bi-level programming model improves the accuracy and normative standardization of power grid enterprises projects.

  1. Model for setting priority construction project objectives aligned with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Mr Ruben Ndihokubwayo, Lecturer, Department of Construction Management and. Quantity Surveying, Cape ... architects, and consulting engineers, requesting them to base their responses on a specific construction project .... financial incentives are designed is to attempt to align the interests of the contractor with those of ...

  2. Visualizing project management: models and frameworks for mastering complex systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Forsberg, Kevin; Mooz, Hal; Cotterman, Howard

    2005-01-01

    ...- and beyond that on parameters such as return on investment, market acceptance, or sustainability. Anyone who has lived with the space program, or any other hightech industrial product development, can immediately appreciate this acclaimed book. It addresses and "visualizes" the multidimensional interactions of project management and systems engineering i...

  3. THE MODELLING OF ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURES OF MANAGEMENT BY REALIZING INVESTMENT CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Олег Александрович КУЧМА

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The authors consider the modeling of organizational structures by virtue of interaction between the basic participants by realizing of investment construction projects. This process is directed at the complex analysis of a problem of quality management by creating of building goods taking into account modern project management tendencies. The topicality of problem is obvious as by realizing of investment construction projects there is a liberal share of uncompleted projects, and in the completed projects actual values considerably exceed budgeted capital expenditures. The introduced model allows managing the project per quality system in all phases of the investment construction project‘s life cycle. It promotes refinement of building goods, improves the rate of successfully completed projects with actual values near budgeted.

  4. Modeling nonstationary extreme value distributions with nonlinear functions: An application using multiple precipitation projections for U.S. cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Um, Myoung-Jin; Kim, Yeonjoo; Markus, Momcilo; Wuebbles, Donald J.

    2017-09-01

    Climate extremes, such as heavy precipitation events, have become more common in recent decades, and nonstationarity concepts have increasingly been adopted to model hydrologic extremes. Various issues are associated with applying nonstationary modeling to extremes, and in this study, we focus on assessing the need for different forms of nonlinear functions in a nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) model of different annual maximum precipitation (AMP) time series. Moreover, we suggest an efficient approach for selecting the nonlinear functions of a nonstationary GEV model. Based on observed and multiple projected AMP data for eight cities across the U.S., three separate tasks are proposed. First, we conduct trend and stationarity tests for the observed and projected data. Second, AMP series are fit with thirty different nonlinear functions, and the best functions among these are selected. Finally, the selected nonlinear functions are used to model the location parameter of a nonstationary GEV model and stationary and nonstationary GEV models with a linear function. Our results suggest that the simple use of nonlinear functions might prove useful with nonstationary GEV models of AMP for different locations with different types of model results.

  5. Data-driven modelling of structured populations a practical guide to the integral projection model

    CERN Document Server

    Ellner, Stephen P; Rees, Mark

    2016-01-01

    This book is a “How To” guide for modeling population dynamics using Integral Projection Models (IPM) starting from observational data. It is written by a leading research team in this area and includes code in the R language (in the text and online) to carry out all computations. The intended audience are ecologists, evolutionary biologists, and mathematical biologists interested in developing data-driven models for animal and plant populations. IPMs may seem hard as they involve integrals. The aim of this book is to demystify IPMs, so they become the model of choice for populations structured by size or other continuously varying traits. The book uses real examples of increasing complexity to show how the life-cycle of the study organism naturally leads to the appropriate statistical analysis, which leads directly to the IPM itself. A wide range of model types and analyses are presented, including model construction, computational methods, and the underlying theory, with the more technical material in B...

  6. Modelling income distribution impacts of water sector projects in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, C S; Jones, S

    1991-09-01

    Dynamic analysis was conducted to assess the long-term impacts of water sector projects on agricultural income distribution, and sensitivity analysis was conducted to check the robustness of the 5 assumptions in this study of income distribution and water sector projects in Bangladesh. 7 transitions are analyzed for mutually exclusive irrigation and flooding projects: Nonirrigation to 1) LLP irrigation, 2) STW irrigation, 3) DTW irrigation, 4) major gravity irrigation, and manually operated shallow tubewell irrigation (MOSTI) and Flood Control Projects (FCD) of 6) medium flooded to shallow flooded, and 7) deeply flooded to shallow flooded. 5 analytical stages are involved: 1) farm budgets are derived with and without project cropping patterns for each transition. 2) Estimates are generated for value added/hectare from each transition. 3) Assumptions are made about the number of social classes, distribution of land ownership between classes, extent of tenancy for each social class, term of tenancy contracts, and extent of hiring of labor for each social class. 4) Annual value added/hectare is distributed among social classes. 5) Using Gini coefficients and simple ratios, the distribution of income between classes is estimated for with and without transition. Assumption I is that there are 4 social classes defined by land acreage: large farmers (5 acres), medium farmers (1.5-5.0), small farmers, (.01-1.49), and landless. Assumption II is that land distribution follows the 1978 Land Occupancy Survey (LOS). Biases, if any, are indicated. Assumption III is that large farmers sharecrop out 15% of land to small farmers. Assumption IV is that landlords provide nonirrigated crop land and take 50% of the crop, and, under irrigation, provide 50% of the fertilizer, pesticide, and irrigation costs and take 50% of the crop. Assumption V is that hired and family labor is assumed to be 40% for small farmers, 60% for medium farmers, and 80% for large farmers. It is understood that

  7. Empowering Cloud Resolving Models Through GPU and Asynchronous IO Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Facilitate use of Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE), Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), and Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF) with bin...

  8. Concept and Model - Kiwi project deliverable D2.8

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Durao, Frederico; Dolog, Peter

    2009-01-01

    The Concept and Model for personalisation serves several goals: •    Introducing relevant concepts of personalisation, user and group modelling, statistical model, reasoning and reason maintenance for personalisation. •    Reviewing the related work in personalisation and understanding how...

  9. Testing the HTA core model: experiences from two pilot projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pasternack, Iris; Anttila, Heidi; Mäkelä, Marjukka

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to analyze and describe process and outcomes of two pilot assessments based on the HTA Core Model, discuss the applicability of the model, and explore areas of development. METHODS: Data were gathered from HTA Core Model and pilot Core HTA documents...

  10. Virtual Solar System Project: Building Understanding through Model Building.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barab, Sasha A.; Hay, Kenneth E.; Barnett, Michael; Keating, Thomas

    2000-01-01

    Describes an introductory astronomy course for undergraduate students in which students use three-dimensional (3-D) modeling tools to model the solar system and develop rich understandings of astronomical phenomena. Indicates that 3-D modeling can be used effectively in regular undergraduate university courses as a tool to develop understandings…

  11. Microcomputer model for an analysis of the financial feasibility of a mining project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciruelos, J.; Duchene, M.

    1983-01-01

    The model presented permits a simulation of the predicted profitability of a mining project at the stage of feasibility studies by making use of a simple individual computer, the Apple II. The model presented can be used to treat the following three areas: definition of the mode of financing the project and calculation of the financial flows which make it possible to evaluate the profitability of this project; analysis of sensitivity, which makes it possible to determine the most critical variables for the future of the project; analysis of the risk [fr

  12. Projected changes in haze pollution potential in China: an ensemble of regional climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Zhenyu; Zhou, Botao; Xu, Ying; Wu, Jia; Shi, Ying

    2017-08-01

    Based on the dynamic downscaling by the regional climate model RegCM4 from three CMIP5 global models under the historical and the RCP4.5 simulations, this article evaluated the performance of the RegCM4 downscaling simulations on the air environment carrying capacity (AEC) and weak ventilation days (WVDs) in China, which are applied to measure haze pollution potential. Their changes during the middle and the end of the 21st century were also projected. The evaluations show that the RegCM4 downscaling simulations can generally capture the observed features of the AEC and WVD distributions over the period 1986-2005. The projections indicate that the annual AEC tends to decrease and the annual WVDs tend to increase over almost the whole country except central China, concurrent with greater change by the late 21st century than by the middle of the 21st century. It suggests that annual haze pollution potential would be enlarged under the RCP4.5 scenario compared to the present. For seasonal change in the four main economic zones of China, it is projected consistently that there would be a higher probability of haze pollution risk over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region and the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region in winter and over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region in spring and summer in the context of the warming scenario. Over Northeast China (NEC), future climate change might reduce the AEC or increase the WVDs throughout the whole year, which favours the occurrence of haze pollution and thus the haze pollution risk would be aggravated. The relative contribution of different components related to the AEC change further indicates that changes in the boundary layer depth and the wind speed play leading roles in the AEC change over the BTH and NEC regions. In addition to those two factors, the precipitation change also exerts important impacts on the AEC change over the YRD and PRD zones.

  13. The python project: a unique model for extending research opportunities to undergraduate students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Pamela A; Wall, Christopher; Luckey, Stephen W; Langer, Stephen; Leinwand, Leslie A

    2014-01-01

    Undergraduate science education curricula are traditionally composed of didactic instruction with a small number of laboratory courses that provide introductory training in research techniques. Research on learning methodologies suggests this model is relatively ineffective, whereas participation in independent research projects promotes enhanced knowledge acquisition and improves retention of students in science. However, availability of faculty mentors and limited departmental budgets prevent the majority of students from participating in research. A need therefore exists for this important component in undergraduate education in both small and large university settings. A course was designed to provide students with the opportunity to engage in a research project in a classroom setting. Importantly, the course collaborates with a sponsor's laboratory, producing a symbiotic relationship between the classroom and the laboratory and an evolving course curriculum. Students conduct a novel gene expression study, with their collective data being relevant to the ongoing research project in the sponsor's lab. The success of this course was assessed based on the quality of the data produced by the students, student perception data, student learning gains, and on whether the course promoted interest in and preparation for careers in science. In this paper, we describe the strategies and outcomes of this course, which represents a model for efficiently providing research opportunities to undergraduates. © 2014 P. A. Harvey et al. This article is distributed by The American Society for Cell Biology under license from the author(s). Two months after publication it is available to the public under an Attribution–Noncommercial–Share Alike 3.0 Unported Creative Commons License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0).

  14. Results of the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project, MISMIP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Pattyn

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Predictions of marine ice-sheet behaviour require models that are able to robustly simulate grounding line migration. We present results of an intercomparison exercise for marine ice-sheet models. Verification is effected by comparison with approximate analytical solutions for flux across the grounding line using simplified geometrical configurations (no lateral variations, no effects of lateral buttressing. Unique steady state grounding line positions exist for ice sheets on a downward sloping bed, while hysteresis occurs across an overdeepened bed, and stable steady state grounding line positions only occur on the downward-sloping sections. Models based on the shallow ice approximation, which does not resolve extensional stresses, do not reproduce the approximate analytical results unless appropriate parameterizations for ice flux are imposed at the grounding line. For extensional-stress resolving "shelfy stream" models, differences between model results were mainly due to the choice of spatial discretization. Moving grid methods were found to be the most accurate at capturing grounding line evolution, since they track the grounding line explicitly. Adaptive mesh refinement can further improve accuracy, including fixed grid models that generally perform poorly at coarse resolution. Fixed grid models, with nested grid representations of the grounding line, are able to generate accurate steady state positions, but can be inaccurate over transients. Only one full-Stokes model was included in the intercomparison, and consequently the accuracy of shelfy stream models as approximations of full-Stokes models remains to be determined in detail, especially during transients.

  15. MUSE: The Bank of Canada's New Projection Model of the U.S. Economy

    OpenAIRE

    Marc-André Gosselin; René Lalonde; Nicolas Parent

    2006-01-01

    Staff projections provided for the Bank of Canada's monetary policy decision process take into account the integration of Canada's very open economy within the global economy, as well as its close real and financial linkages with the United States. To provide inputs for this projection, the Bank has developed several models, including MUSE, NEUQ (the New European Quarterly Model), and BoC-GEM (Bank of Canada Global Economy Model), to analyze and forecast economic developments in the rest of t...

  16. Teaching project: a low-cost swine model for chest tube insertion training

    OpenAIRE

    Netto, Fernando Antonio Campelo Spencer; Sommer, Camila Garcia; Constantino, Michael de Mello; Cardoso, Michel; Cipriani, Raphael Flávio Fachini; Pereira, Renan Augusto

    2016-01-01

    Objective: to describe and evaluate the acceptance of a low-cost chest tube insertion porcine model in a medical education project in the southwest of Paraná, Brazil. Methods: we developed a low-cost and low technology porcine model for teaching chest tube insertion and used it in a teaching project. Medical trainees - students and residents - received theoretical instructions about the procedure and performed thoracic drainage in this porcine model. After performing the procedure, the par...

  17. Decision Model on Financing a Project Using Knowledge about Risk Areas

    OpenAIRE

    Ioana POPOVICI; Emil SCARLAT; Francesco RIZZO

    2011-01-01

    The research presents an alternative to the classical method of measuring financial risk in funding a project. The goal of the model described in the paper implies identifying "risky areas" within the financial balance of the project. The model analysis the financial risk behavior studied along four scenarios by varying only the cost of financing source used according to the specific type of funding. The model introduces the time factor into the analysis of financial risk due to the specific ...

  18. Dynamically Scaled Model for NASA's Next Generation Aviation Demonstrator Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Significant advances in several key technologies such as material sciences, manufacturing, miniaturization, and active flow control suggest that the time has come to...

  19. Analysis of CPN-1 sigma models via projective structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Post, S; Grundland, A M

    2012-01-01

    This paper represents a study of projector solutions to the Euclidean CP N-1 sigma model in two dimensions and their associated surfaces immersed in the su(N) Lie algebra. Any solution for the CP N-1 sigma model defined on the extended complex plane with finite action can be written as a raising operator acting on a holomorphic one. Here the proof is formulated in terms rank-1 projectors so it is explicitly gauge invariant. We apply these results to the analysis of surfaces associated with the CP N-1 models defined using the generalized Weierstrass formula for immersion. We show that the surfaces are conformally parametrized by the Lagrangian density, with finite area equal to the action of the model, and express several other geometrical characteristics of the surface in terms of the physical quantities of the model. Finally, we provide necessary and sufficient conditions that a surface be related to a CP N-1 sigma model

  20. Physical Modeling for Anomaly Diagnostics and Prognostics Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Ridgetop developed an innovative, model-driven anomaly diagnostic and fault characterization system for electromechanical actuator (EMA) systems to mitigate...

  1. Model project for intelligent distribution systems; Modellprojekt fuer intelligente Verteilnetze

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Opitsch, Bruno [Siemens AG, Nuernberg (Germany). Div. Smart Grid

    2013-06-01

    Due to the operation of photovoltaic systems, wind power plants and biomass conversion plants, the previous consumers of energy become more and more producers, so-called prosumers. This fact as well as the increasing volatile feeding of electricity from renewable energy sources require smart grids for the power distribution. The public utility Krefeld (Federal Republic of Germany) has launched a smart grid pilot project in Wachtendonk (Federal Republic of Germany) in cooperation with Siemens Smart Grid. With this, further practical experiences in the transformation of a power distribution system to a smart grid should be collected, and expertise should be built up.

  2. THE MODEL OF EXPERT SYSTEM FOR SCIENTIFIC PROJECTS EVALUATION IN HIGHER EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Олександр Михайлович ВОЗНИЙ

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available There have been proposed the model of the expert system for the assessment of research projects in higher educational institutions, based on estimates of probability. It allows to rank alternative projects and scenarios. The model is implemented through the software "Small expert system." The principle of calculating the probability of approval of research projects, which form the basis of the expert system, is based on Bayes' theorem. Expert system calculates the probability of approval of research projects by Ministry of Science and Education on the basis of the responses to questions about the content of the request for the execution of research projects. Questions are formed on the basis of the criteria by which experts of state authorities evaluate scientific research projects.

  3. Variability and teleconnections of South and East Asian summer monsoons in present and future projections of CMIP5 climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preethi, Bhaskar; Mujumdar, Milind; Prabhu, Amita; Kripalani, Ramesh

    2017-05-01

    Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model outputs of the South and East Asian summer monsoon variability and their tele-connections are investigated using historical simulations (1861-2005) and future projections under the RCP4.5 scenario (2006-2100). Detailed analyses are performed using nine models having better representation of the recent monsoon teleconnections for the interactive Asian monsoon sub-systems. However, these models underestimate rainfall mainly over South Asia and Korea-Japan sector, the regions of heavy rainfall, along with a bias in location of rainfall maxima. Indeed, the simulation biases, underestimations of monsoon variability and teleconnections suggest further improvements for better representation of Asian monsoon in the climate models. Interestingly, the performance of Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator version 1.0 (ACCESS1.0) in simulating the annual cycle, spatial pattern of rainfall and multi-decadal variations of summer monsoon rainfall over South and East Asia appears to more realistic. In spite of large spread among the CMIP5 models, historical simulations as well as future projections of summer monsoon rainfall indicate multi-decadal variability. These rainfall variations, displaying certain epochs of more rainfall over South Asia than over East Asia and vice versa, suggest an oscillatory behaviour. Teleconnections between South and East Asian monsoon rainfall also exhibit a multi-decadal variation with alternate epochs of strengthening and weakening relationship. Furthermore, large-scale circulation features such as South Asian monsoon trough and north Pacific subtropical high depict zonal oscillatory behaviour with east-west-east shifts. Periods with eastward or westward extension of the Mascarene High, intensification and expansion of the upper tropospheric South Asian High are also projected by the CMIP5 models.

  4. The future of coastal upwelling in the Humboldt current from model projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oyarzún, Damián; Brierley, Chris M.

    2018-03-01

    The Humboldt coastal upwelling system in the eastern South Pacific ocean is one of the most productive marine ecosystems in the world. A weakening of the upwelling activity could lead to severe ecological impacts. As coastal upwelling in eastern boundary systems is mainly driven by wind stress, most studies so far have analysed wind patterns change through the 20th and 21st Centuries in order to understand and project the phenomenon under specific forcing scenarios. Mixed results have been reported, and analyses from General Circulation Models have suggested even contradictory trends of wind stress for the Humboldt system. In this study, we analyse the ocean upwelling directly in 13 models contributing to phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) in both the historical simulations and an extreme climate change scenario (RCP8.5). The upwelling is represented by the upward ocean mass flux, a newly-included variable that represents the vertical water transport. Additionally, wind stress, ocean stratification, Ekman layer depth and thermocline depth were also analysed to explore their interactions with coastal upwelling throughout the period studied. The seasonal cycle of coastal upwelling differs between the Northern and Southern Humboldt areas. At lower latitudes, the upwelling season spans most of the autumn, winter and spring. However, in the Southern Humboldt area the upwelling season takes place in spring and the summertime with downwelling activity in winter. This persists throughout the Historical and RCP8.5 simulations. For both the Northern and Southern Humboldt areas an increasing wind stress is projected. However, different trends of upwelling intensity are observed away from the sea surface. Whereas wind stress will continue controlling the decadal variability of coastal upwelling on the whole ocean column analysed (surface to 300 m depth), an increasing disconnect with upwelling intensity is projected below 100 m depth throughout the 21

  5. A Review of Methodology for Evaluating the Performance of Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion Models and Suggested Protocol for Providing More Informative Results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven Herring

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Many models exist for predicting the atmospheric transport and dispersion of material following its release into the atmosphere. The purpose of these models may be to support air quality assessments and/or to predict the hazard resulting from releases of harmful materials to inform emergency response actions. In either case it is essential that the user understands the level of predictive accuracy that might be expected. However, contrary to expectation, this is not easily determined from published comparisons of model predictions against data from dispersion experiments. The paper presents and reviews the methods adopted and issues involved in comparing the predictive performance of atmospheric transport and dispersion models to experimental data, by reference to a number of experimental data sets and comparison results. It then presents an approach which is designed to make the performance of atmospheric dispersion models more transparent, through clearly defining the basis on which the comparison is made, and comparing the performance of the chosen model to that of a reference model. Such an approach establishes a clear baseline against which the accuracy of models can be evaluated and the performance benefits of more sophisticated approaches quantified. The use of a simple analytic reference model applicable to continuous ground level releases in open terrain and urban areas is shown as a proof-of-principle.

  6. Upper-Ocean Heat Balance Processes and the Walker Circulation in CMIP5 Model Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, F. R.; Roberts, J. B.; Funk, C.; Lyon, B.; Ricciardulli, L.

    2012-01-01

    Considerable uncertainty remains as to the importance of mechanisms governing decadal and longer variability of the Walker Circulation, its connection to the tropical climate system, and prospects for tropical climate change in the face of anthropogenic forcing. Most contemporary climate models suggest that in response to elevated CO2 and a warmer but more stratified atmosphere, the required upward mass flux in tropical convection will diminish along with the Walker component of the tropical mean circulation as well. Alternatively, there is also evidence to suggest that the shoaling and increased vertical stratification of the thermocline in the eastern Pacific will enable a muted SST increase there-- preserving or even enhancing some of the dynamical forcing for the Walker cell flow. Over the past decade there have been observational indications of an acceleration in near-surface easterlies, a strengthened Pacific zonal SST gradient, and globally-teleconnected dislocations in precipitation. But is this evidence in support of an ocean dynamical thermostat process posited to accompany anthropogenic forcing, or just residual decadal fluctuations associated with variations in warm and cold ENSO events and other stochastic forcing? From a modeling perspective we try to make headway on this question by examining zonal variations in surface energy fluxes and dynamics governing tropical upper ocean heat content evolution in the WCRP CMIP5 model projections. There is some diversity among model simulations; for example, the CCSM4 indicates net ocean warming over the IndoPacific region while the CSIRO model concentrates separate warming responses over the central Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The models, as with observations, demonstrate strong local coupling between variations in column water vapor, downward surface longwave radiation and SST; but the spatial patterns of changes in the sign of this relationship differ among models and, for models as a whole, with

  7. GASB's New Financial Reporting Model: Implementation Project for School Districts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bean, David; Glick, Paul

    1999-01-01

    In June 1999, the Governmental Accounting Standards Board (GASB) issued its statement on the structure of the basic financial reporting model for state and local governments. Explains the new financial reporting model and reviews the implementation issues that school districts will need to address. (MLF)

  8. Model projections for household energy use in developing countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Daioglou, V.; Ruijven, B.J. van; Vuuren, D.P. van

    2012-01-01

    The residential sector plays an important role in the energy system of developing countries. In this paper we introduce a bottom up simulation model for household energy use. The model describes energy demand for several end-use functions based on a set of physical drivers, such as floor space and

  9. Model projections for household energy use in India

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ruijven, B.J.; van Vuuren, D.P.; de Vries, B.J.M.; Isaac, M.; van der Sluijs, J.P.; Lucas, P.L.; Balachandra, P.

    2011-01-01

    Energy use in developing countries is heterogeneous across households. Present day global energy models are mostly too aggregate to account for this heterogeneity. Here, a bottom-up model for residential energy use that starts from key dynamic concepts on energy use in developing countries is

  10. Eysenck Psychobiological Personality Model: a projected into the future history

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanina Schmidt

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available In this article, particular circumstances, author and ideas that influenced on the elaboration of one of the most solid personality models that Psychology has till nowadays: Eysenck Personality Model, are revised. Its main characteristics are presented, which defined it as a dispositional, dimensional, hierarchic and psychobiological model. The intention of improving dimensions description, explanation, and measurement, took this author to propose changes to his original theory and instrument. Hence, different periods of this model are analyzed. In spite of proliferation of personality theories, Eysenck model has an empirical validity that only a few have. Thus, we argue that in Personality Psychology there is a background available which represents the Paradigm into which we will probably be moving in the next years

  11. Reducing failures rate within the project documentation using Building Information Modelling, especially Level of Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prušková Kristýna

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Paper´s focus is on differences between traditional modelling in 2D software and modelling within the BIM technology. Research uncovers failures connected to the traditional way of designing and construction of project documentation. There are revealed and shown mismatches within the project documentation. Solution within the Building information modelling Technology is outlined. As a reference, there is used experience with design of specific building in both ways of construction of project documentation: in the way of traditional modelling and in the way when using BIM technology, especially using Level of Development. Output of this paper is pointing to benefits of using advanced technology in building design, thus Building Information Modelling, especially Level of Development, which leads to reducing failures rate within the project documentation.

  12. Valuation of real options : construction of a model to evaluate real investment projects

    OpenAIRE

    Rutgerson, Mette Rørvik

    2008-01-01

    In this thesis I use two existing models to construct a model that can evaluate the exploration phase and the production phase of a real investment project simultaneously. I assume that the value of the production phase is the value of the outcome of an exploration project and can therefore make a model that combines the two phases. I assume that the exploration phase has on-going investment costs until completion and that the time to completion is uncertain. I allow the exploration project t...

  13. A Project Portfolio Management model adapted to non-profit organizations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabrício Martins Lacerda

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available As they strive towards greater professionalism in carrying out their activities, non-profit organizations (NPOs have begun paying attention to project management. The non-profit sector (NPS has also begun to adopt strategic planning techniques, thus making the acceptance of project portfolio management (PPM methodology a natural consequence. This article aims to propose a project portfolio management model adapted to the context of NPOs.

  14. Climate Model Response from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Caldeira, Ken; Boucher, Olivier; Robock, Alan; Rasch, Philip J.; Alterskjaer, Kari; Bou Karam, Diana; Cole, Jason N.; Curry, Charles L.; Haywood, J.; Irvine, Peter; Ji, Duoying; Jones, A.; Kristjansson, J. E.; Lunt, Daniel; Moore, John; Niemeier, Ulrike; Schmidt, Hauke; Schulz, M.; Singh, Balwinder; Tilmes, S.; Watanabe, Shingo; Yang, Shuting; Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2013-08-09

    Solar geoengineering—deliberate reduction in the amount of solar radiation retained by the Earth—has been proposed as a means of counteracting some of the climatic effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. We present results from Experiment G1 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, in which 12 climate models have simulated the climate response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO2 from preindustrial concentrations brought into radiative balance via a globally uniform reduction in insolation. Models show this reduction largely offsets global mean surface temperature increases due to quadrupled CO2 concentrations and prevents 97% of the Arctic sea ice loss that would otherwise occur under high CO2 levels but, compared to the preindustrial climate, leaves the tropics cooler (-0.3 K) and the poles warmer (+0.8 K). Annual mean precipitation minus evaporation anomalies for G1 are less than 0.2mmday-1 in magnitude over 92% of the globe, but some tropical regions receive less precipitation, in part due to increased moist static stability and suppression of convection. Global average net primary productivity increases by 120% in G1 over simulated preindustrial levels, primarily from CO2 fertilization, but also in part due to reduced plant heat stress compared to a high CO2 world with no geoengineering. All models show that uniform solar geoengineering in G1 cannot simultaneously return regional and global temperature and hydrologic cycle intensity to preindustrial levels.

  15. Predicting Defects Using Information Intelligence Process Models in the Software Technology Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selvaraj, Manjula Gandhi; Jayabal, Devi Shree; Srinivasan, Thenmozhi; Balasubramanie, Palanisamy

    2015-01-01

    A key differentiator in a competitive market place is customer satisfaction. As per Gartner 2012 report, only 75%-80% of IT projects are successful. Customer satisfaction should be considered as a part of business strategy. The associated project parameters should be proactively managed and the project outcome needs to be predicted by a technical manager. There is lot of focus on the end state and on minimizing defect leakage as much as possible. Focus should be on proactively managing and shifting left in the software life cycle engineering model. Identify the problem upfront in the project cycle and do not wait for lessons to be learnt and take reactive steps. This paper gives the practical applicability of using predictive models and illustrates use of these models in a project to predict system testing defects thus helping to reduce residual defects.

  16. Pengembangan Model Outdoor Learning melalui Project Berbasis Local Wisdom dalam Pembelajaran Fisika

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Indah kurnia Putri Damayanti

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstrak Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk: (1 menghasilkan model outdoor learning melalui project berbasis local wisdom yang layak digunakan dalam pembelajaran fisika, (2 mengetahui keefektifan penggunaan model outdoor learning melalui project berbasis local wisdom. Penelitian pengembangan ini menggunakan metode pengembangan R & D (Research dan Development. Pada tahap Development, peneliti mengadopsi model 4D, yaitu Define, Design, Develop, dan Disseminate. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model outdoor learning melalui project berbasis local wisdom yang dikembangkan layak digunakan dari segi produk pendukung pembelajaran yang memenuhi kriteria sangat tinggi menurut para ahli, praktis menurut guru dan peserta didik. Lembar observasi yang memenuhi kriteria valid dan reliabel berdasarkan hasil ICC dan tes hasil belajar yang memenuhi kriteria valid dan reliabel berdasarkan hasil Quest. Selain itu, model outdoor learning melalui project berbasis local wisdom lebih efektif digunakan dalam pembelajaran fisika dilihat dari hasil analisis multivariate dan GLMMDs yang memperoleh nilai signifikansi 0,000 dan MD yang tinggi.   AbstractThis research was aimed to: (1 produce outdoor learning via project based suitable local wisdom model used in physics learning, (2 know the effectiveness in using outdoor learning via project based local wisdom model. This developing research used a R & D method (Research and Development. On Development step, the researcher adopted 4D model, they were Define, Design, Develop, dan Dissemination. The results showed that the developed outdoor learning via project based local wisdom model was suitable to be used in terms of learning support product that was in very high category according expert, practical according teacher and students. In addition the observation sheet was in valid criteria and reliabel based on ICC and the learning outcome test was in valid criteria and reliabel based on Quest. Besides, outdoor learning via

  17. The development of stochastic process modeling through risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Kwang Ho; Roh, Myung Sub

    2013-01-01

    There are so many different factors to consider when constructing a nuclear power plant successfully from planning to decommissioning. According to PMBOK, all projects have nine domains from a holistic project management perspective. They are equally important to all projects, however, this study focuses mostly on the processes required to manage timely completion of the project and conduct risk management. The overall objective of this study is to let you know what the risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project is, and understand how to implement the stochastic process modeling through risk management. Building the Nuclear Power Plant is required a great deal of time and fundamental knowledge related to all engineering. That means that integrated project scheduling management with so many activities is necessary and very important. Simulation techniques for scheduling of NPP project using Open Plan program, Crystal Ball program, and Minitab program can be useful tools for designing optimal schedule planning. Thus far, Open Plan and Monte Carlo programs have been used to calculate the critical path for scheduling network analysis. And also, Minitab program has been applied to monitor the scheduling risk. This approach to stochastic modeling through risk analysis of project activities is very useful for optimizing the schedules of activities using Critical Path Method and managing the scheduling control of NPP project. This study has shown new approach to optimal scheduling of NPP project, however, this does not consider the characteristic of activities according to the NPP site conditions. Hence, this study needs more research considering those factors

  18. The development of stochastic process modeling through risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Kwang Ho; Roh, Myung Sub [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    There are so many different factors to consider when constructing a nuclear power plant successfully from planning to decommissioning. According to PMBOK, all projects have nine domains from a holistic project management perspective. They are equally important to all projects, however, this study focuses mostly on the processes required to manage timely completion of the project and conduct risk management. The overall objective of this study is to let you know what the risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project is, and understand how to implement the stochastic process modeling through risk management. Building the Nuclear Power Plant is required a great deal of time and fundamental knowledge related to all engineering. That means that integrated project scheduling management with so many activities is necessary and very important. Simulation techniques for scheduling of NPP project using Open Plan program, Crystal Ball program, and Minitab program can be useful tools for designing optimal schedule planning. Thus far, Open Plan and Monte Carlo programs have been used to calculate the critical path for scheduling network analysis. And also, Minitab program has been applied to monitor the scheduling risk. This approach to stochastic modeling through risk analysis of project activities is very useful for optimizing the schedules of activities using Critical Path Method and managing the scheduling control of NPP project. This study has shown new approach to optimal scheduling of NPP project, however, this does not consider the characteristic of activities according to the NPP site conditions. Hence, this study needs more research considering those factors.

  19. Electronic Modeling and Design for Extreme Temperatures Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — We are developing CAD tools, models and methodologies for electronics design for circuit operation in extreme environments with focus on very low temperatures...

  20. Fault Management: Degradation Signature Detection, Modeling, and Processing Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Fault to Failure Progression (FFP) signature modeling and processing is a new method for applying condition-based signal data to detect degradation, to identify...

  1. The Model Vision Project: A Conceptual Framework for Service Delivery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourgeault, Stanley E.; And Others

    1977-01-01

    Described are the conceptualization, implementation, and results to date of the George Peabody College for Teachers Model Center for Severely Handicapped Multi-impaired Children with Visual Impairment as a Primary Handicapping Condition. (Author/IM)

  2. Model Updating and Uncertainty Management for Aircraft Prognostic Systems Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This proposal addresses the integration of physics-based damage propagation models with diagnostic measures of current state of health in a mathematically rigorous...

  3. Pressure Sensitive Paint Applied to Flexible Models Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schairer, Edward T.; Kushner, Laura Kathryn

    2014-01-01

    One gap in current pressure-measurement technology is a high-spatial-resolution method for accurately measuring pressures on spatially and temporally varying wind-tunnel models such as Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerators (IADs), parachutes, and sails. Conventional pressure taps only provide sparse measurements at discrete points and are difficult to integrate with the model structure without altering structural properties. Pressure Sensitive Paint (PSP) provides pressure measurements with high spatial resolution, but its use has been limited to rigid or semi-rigid models. Extending the use of PSP from rigid surfaces to flexible surfaces would allow direct, high-spatial-resolution measurements of the unsteady surface pressure distribution. Once developed, this new capability will be combined with existing stereo photogrammetry methods to simultaneously measure the shape of a dynamically deforming model in a wind tunnel. Presented here are the results and methodology for using PSP on flexible surfaces.

  4. Collaborative Project. Mode and Intermediate Waters in Earth System Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sarmiento, Jorge L. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States); Dufour, Carolina [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States); Rodgers, Keith B. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States)

    2015-12-16

    The focus of this grant was on diagnosing the physical mechanisms controlling upper ocean water mass formation and carbon distribution in Earth System Models (ESMs), with the goal of improving the physics that controls their formation.

  5. Polymer Matrix Composites using Fused Deposition Modeling Technology Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Fused deposition modeling (FDM) is an additive manufacturing technology that allows fabrication of complex three-dimensional geometries layer-by-layer. The goal of...

  6. Sustainable model for financial viability of decentralized biomass gasifier based power projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Palit, D.; Malhotra, R.; Kumar, Atul

    2011-01-01

    This paper made a modest attempt for designing a sustainable model for financial viability of biomass gasifier power projects for enhancing electricity access in India and other developing countries. For long term sustainability of distributed generation projects in remote rural areas, viability

  7. Re-modeling the ‘project’: escaping project-based culture in digital scholarship

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sichani, Anna-Maria

    2016-01-01

    Typically bound to a project-based logic (Burdick et al. 2012), digital humanities projects are often confined within development models that privilege stringent funding cycles of limited budget, strict timelines, and extended and interdisciplinary collaboration among partners. The product is

  8. Using UML Modeling to Facilitate Three-Tier Architecture Projects in Software Engineering Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitra, Sandeep

    2014-01-01

    This article presents the use of a model-centric approach to facilitate software development projects conforming to the three-tier architecture in undergraduate software engineering courses. Many instructors intend that such projects create software applications for use by real-world customers. While it is important that the first version of these…

  9. Exploring Students' Computational Thinking Skills in Modeling and Simulation Projects: : A Pilot Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grgurina, Natasa; van Veen, Klaas; Barendsen, Erik; Zwaneveld, Bert; Suhre, Cor; Gal-Ezer, Judith; Sentance, Sue; Vahrenhold, Jan

    2015-01-01

    Computational Thinking (CT) is gaining a lot of attention in education. We explored how to discern the occurrences of CT in the projects of 12th grade high school students in the computer science (CS) course. Within the projects, they constructed models and ran simulations of phenomena from other

  10. Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Davie, J. C. S.; Falloon, P. D.; Kahana, R.; Dankers, R.; Betts, R.; Portmann, F. T.; Wisser, D.; Clark, D. B.; Ito, A.; Masaki, Y.; Nishina, K.; Fekete, B.; Tessler, Z.; Wada, Y.; Liu, X.; Tang, Q.; Hagemann, S.; Stacke, T.; Pavlick, R.; Schaphoff, S.; Gosling, S. N.; Franssen, W.; Arnell, N.

    2013-01-01

    Future changes in runoff can have important implications for water resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) simulations forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative Concentration

  11. Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Davie, J.C.S.; Falloon, P.D.; Kahana, R.; Dankers, R.; Betts, R.; Portmann, F.T.; Wisser, D.; Clark, D.B.; Ito, A.; Masaki, Y.; Nishina, K.; Fekete, B.; Tessler, Z.; Wada, Y.; Liu, X.; Tang, Q.; Hagemann, S.; Stacke, T.; Pavlick, R.; Schaphoff, S.; Gosling, S.N.; Franssen, W.H.P.; Arnell, N.

    2013-01-01

    Future changes in runoff can have important implications for water resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project) simulations forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative Concentration

  12. Elucidating the population dynamics of Japanese knotweed using integral projection models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph T Dauer

    Full Text Available Plant demographic studies coupled with population modeling are crucial components of invasive plant management because they inform managers when in a plant's life cycle it is most susceptible to control efforts. Providing land managers with appropriate data can be especially challenging when there is limited data on potentially important transitions that occur belowground. For 2 years, we monitored 4 clonal Japanese knotweed (Polygonumcuspidatum infestations for emergence, survival, shoot height until leaf senescence, dry shoot biomass after senescence, and rhizome connections for 424 shoots. We developed an integral projection model using both final autumn shoot height and shoot biomass as predictors of survival between years, growth from year to year, and number of rhizomes produced by a shoot (fecundity. Numbers of new shoots within an infestation (population growth rate λ were projected to increase 13-233% in a year, with the greatest increase at the most frequently disturbed site. Elasticity analysis revealed population growth at 3 of the 4 sites was primarily due to ramet survival between years and to year-to-year growth in shoot height and shoot biomass. Population growth at the fourth site, the most disturbed, was due to the large production of new rhizomes and associated shoots. In contrast to previous studies, our excavation revealed that most of the shoots were not interconnected, suggesting rhizome production may be limited by the size or age of the plants, resource availability, disturbance frequency, or other factors. Future integration of plant population models with more data on belowground growth structures will clarify the critical stages in Japanese knotweed life cycle and support land managers in their management decisions.

  13. [Reconstruction and measurement of a digital dental model using grating projection and reverse engineering].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhenzhen, Wang; Yi, Lu; Jun, Song; Jun, Chen; Qin, Zhou

    2015-02-01

    This work lays the foundation for establishing a digital model database with normal occlusion. A digital dental cast is acquired through grating projection, and model features are measured through reverse engineering. The grating projection system controlled by a computer was projected onto the surface of a normal dental model. Three-dimensional contour data were obtained through multi-angle shooting. A three-dimensional model was constructed, and the model features were analyzed by using reverse engineering. The digital model was compared with the plaster model to determine the accuracy of the measurement system. The structure of three-dimensional reconstruction model was clear. The digital models of two measurements exhibited no significant difference (P > 0.05). When digital and plaster models were measured, we found that the crown length and arch width were not statistically different (P > 0.05), whereas the difference between the crown width and arch length was statistically significant (P model by using the grating projection technique and reverse engineering can be used for dental model measurement in clinic al and scientific research and can provide a scientific method for establishing a digital model database with normal occlusion.

  14. FORMATION OF THE PROJECT CONCEPT OF START PRE ACCELERATOR BY WAY OF BUSINESS MODEL BUILDING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Роман Васильович ФЕЩУР

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available We have described the concept of the project of enterprise functioning, the main activity of which is the creation and implementation of training programs at the pre-investment stage and commercialize creative startups to represent them in the form attractive to investors. We also formed a flexible business model of enterprise-operator pre-accelerator at the base of Template A. Osterwalder. We have discovered the essence of the value proposition of enterprise-pre-accelerator. The company interaction with customers, among the main ones is: holders of startups, coworking, outsourcing companies, universities, "business angels" and sponsors were described. We have disclosed the role of human resources that create and convey to customers information about developed valuable suggestions. The basic activities of created business - production, customer satisfaction and building a platform (network were given. The risks of the project were found and their quantitative assessment was given. We noted that the successful implementation of each startup provides the appearance of not only economic but also social impact - creating new jobs, workers are provided with decent wages.

  15. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Phase 2: Scientific objectives and experimental design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Rowley, David; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Chandler, Mark A.; Hunter, Stephen J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Pound, Matthew; Salzmann, Ulrich

    2016-01-01

    The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is a co-ordinated international climate modelling initiative to study and understand climate and environments of the Late Pliocene, as well as their potential relevance in the context of future climate change. PlioMIP examines the consistency of model predictions in simulating Pliocene climate and their ability to reproduce climate signals preserved by geological climate archives. Here we provide a description of the aim and objectives of the next phase of the model intercomparison project (PlioMIP Phase 2), and we present the experimental design and boundary conditions that will be utilized for climate model experiments in Phase 2. 

  16. Segmental and laminar organization of the spinal neurons projecting to the periaqueductal gray (PAG) in the cat suggests the existence of at least five separate clusters of spino-PAG neurons

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mouton, Leonora J.; Holstege, Gert

    2000-01-01

    The present retrograde tracing study in the cat describes the spinal cord projections to the periaqueductal gray (PAC), taking into account different regions of the PAG and all spinal segments. Results show that injecting different parts of the PAC leads to different laminar and segmental

  17. Exploring the relationship between sustainability and project success - conceptual model and expected relationships

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilbert Silvius

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Sustainability is one of the most important challenges of our time. Companies are integrating sustainability in their marketing, communication and their actions. Sustainability has more recently also been linked to project management. The logic behind this link is that sustainability needs change and projects are realizing change. Several studies explored how the concept of sustainability impact project management. The research project reported in this paper elaborates on these works by studying how sustainability affects project success. Project managers, logically, strive for project success and considering sustainability may influence this success. Based upon a review of relevant literature, the paper develops a conceptual model that provides a more detailed understanding of how considering different dimensions of sustainability may affect the individual criteria of project success. The study also provides a conceptual mapping of the different relationships between dimensions of sustainability and criteria of project success. This mapping shows that the most positive relationships are expected for the relationship between sustainability and the success criteria stakeholder satisfaction, future readiness and controlled project execution. The expected relationship between considering sustainability and completing the project on schedule and within budget is uncertain.

  18. Inhibition, Updating Working Memory, and Shifting Predict Reading Disability Symptoms in a Hybrid Model: Project KIDS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daucourt, Mia C; Schatschneider, Christopher; Connor, Carol M; Al Otaiba, Stephanie; Hart, Sara A

    2018-01-01

    Recent achievement research suggests that executive function (EF), a set of regulatory processes that control both thought and action necessary for goal-directed behavior, is related to typical and atypical reading performance. This project examines the relation of EF, as measured by its components, Inhibition, Updating Working Memory, and Shifting, with a hybrid model of reading disability (RD). Our sample included 420 children who participated in a broader intervention project when they were in KG-third grade (age M = 6.63 years, SD = 1.04 years, range = 4.79-10.40 years). At the time their EF was assessed, using a parent-report Behavior Rating Inventory of Executive Function (BRIEF), they had a mean age of 13.21 years ( SD = 1.54 years; range = 10.47-16.63 years). The hybrid model of RD was operationalized as a composite consisting of four symptoms, and set so that any child could have any one, any two, any three, any four, or none of the symptoms included in the hybrid model. The four symptoms include low word reading achievement, unexpected low word reading achievement, poorer reading comprehension compared to listening comprehension, and dual-discrepancy response-to-intervention, requiring both low achievement and low growth in word reading. The results of our multilevel ordinal logistic regression analyses showed a significant relation between all three components of EF (Inhibition, Updating Working Memory, and Shifting) and the hybrid model of RD, and that the strength of EF's predictive power for RD classification was the highest when RD was modeled as having at least one or more symptoms. Importantly, the chances of being classified as having RD increased as EF performance worsened and decreased as EF performance improved. The question of whether any one EF component would emerge as a superior predictor was also examined and results showed that Inhibition, Updating Working Memory, and Shifting were equally valuable as predictors of the hybrid model of RD

  19. Inhibition, Updating Working Memory, and Shifting Predict Reading Disability Symptoms in a Hybrid Model: Project KIDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mia C. Daucourt

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent achievement research suggests that executive function (EF, a set of regulatory processes that control both thought and action necessary for goal-directed behavior, is related to typical and atypical reading performance. This project examines the relation of EF, as measured by its components, Inhibition, Updating Working Memory, and Shifting, with a hybrid model of reading disability (RD. Our sample included 420 children who participated in a broader intervention project when they were in KG-third grade (age M = 6.63 years, SD = 1.04 years, range = 4.79–10.40 years. At the time their EF was assessed, using a parent-report Behavior Rating Inventory of Executive Function (BRIEF, they had a mean age of 13.21 years (SD = 1.54 years; range = 10.47–16.63 years. The hybrid model of RD was operationalized as a composite consisting of four symptoms, and set so that any child could have any one, any two, any three, any four, or none of the symptoms included in the hybrid model. The four symptoms include low word reading achievement, unexpected low word reading achievement, poorer reading comprehension compared to listening comprehension, and dual-discrepancy response-to-intervention, requiring both low achievement and low growth in word reading. The results of our multilevel ordinal logistic regression analyses showed a significant relation between all three components of EF (Inhibition, Updating Working Memory, and Shifting and the hybrid model of RD, and that the strength of EF’s predictive power for RD classification was the highest when RD was modeled as having at least one or more symptoms. Importantly, the chances of being classified as having RD increased as EF performance worsened and decreased as EF performance improved. The question of whether any one EF component would emerge as a superior predictor was also examined and results showed that Inhibition, Updating Working Memory, and Shifting were equally valuable as predictors of the

  20. Do telemonitoring projects of heart failure fit the Chronic Care Model?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willemse, Evi; Adriaenssens, Jef; Dilles, Tinne; Remmen, Roy

    2014-07-01

    This study describes the characteristics of extramural and transmural telemonitoring projects on chronic heart failure in Belgium. It describes to what extent these telemonitoring projects coincide with the Chronic Care Model of Wagner. The Chronic Care Model describes essential components for high-quality health care. Telemonitoring can be used to optimise home care for chronic heart failure. It provides a potential prospective to change the current care organisation. This qualitative study describes seven non-invasive home-care telemonitoring projects in patients with heart failure in Belgium. A qualitative design, including interviews and literature review, was used to describe the correspondence of these home-care telemonitoring projects with the dimensions of the Chronic Care Model. The projects were situated in primary and secondary health care. Their primary goal was to reduce the number of readmissions for chronic heart failure. None of these projects succeeded in a final implementation of telemonitoring in home care after the pilot phase. Not all the projects were initiated to accomplish all of the dimensions of the Chronic Care Model. A central role for the patient was sparse. Limited financial resources hampered continuation after the pilot phase. Cooperation and coordination in telemonitoring appears to be major barriers but are, within primary care as well as between the lines of care, important links in follow-up. This discrepancy can be prohibitive for deployment of good chronic care. Chronic Care Model is recommended as basis for future.

  1. PENGEMBANGAN TUGAS AKHIR MELALUI PROJECT BASED LEARNING MODEL UNTUK MENINGKATKAN GENERIC GREEN SKILLS SISWA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Ana

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The development of students’ final project through Project-based Learning (PBLapproach was conducted in the workshop of family resource management (FRM in 7th semester.PBL approach is expected to give contribution to students’ motivation and experience to finish their final assignments of FRM workshop. The objectives of the research are to: (1 develop PBL model for the students’final project; (2 produce learning instruments of PBL such as lesson plans, manual of FRM workshop, and scientific report of FRM workshop. The method of the study was using research and development of Plomp model and quasi experiment for testing the effectiveness of the model. The research subjects were the students from the class of 2009 and 2010 who joined FRM workshop course. The study produced model, lesson plans, and manual of FRM workshop as the outputs. The result showed that project based learning model was effective to improve the students’ generic green skills for project management, collaborative skills, and communicative competence. Keywords: final project, generic green skill, family resource management, Project-Based Learning

  2. Accounting for downscaling and model uncertainty in fine-resolution seasonal climate projections over the Columbia River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid; Rana, Arun

    2018-01-01

    Climate change is expected to have severe impacts on natural systems as well as various socio-economic aspects of human life. This has urged scientific communities to improve the understanding of future climate and reduce the uncertainties associated with projections. In the present study, ten statistically downscaled CMIP5 GCMs at 1/16th deg. spatial resolution from two different downscaling procedures are utilized over the Columbia River Basin (CRB) to assess the changes in climate variables and characterize the associated uncertainties. Three climate variables, i.e. precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature, are studied for the historical period of 1970-2000 as well as future period of 2010-2099, simulated with representative concentration pathways of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is employed to reduce the model uncertainty and develop a probabilistic projection for each variable in each scenario. Historical comparison of long-term attributes of GCMs and observation suggests a more accurate representation for BMA than individual models. Furthermore, BMA projections are used to investigate future seasonal to annual changes of climate variables. Projections indicate significant increase in annual precipitation and temperature, with varied degree of change across different sub-basins of CRB. We then characterized uncertainty of future projections for each season over CRB. Results reveal that model uncertainty is the main source of uncertainty, among others. However, downscaling uncertainty considerably contributes to the total uncertainty of future projections, especially in summer. On the contrary, downscaling uncertainty appears to be higher than scenario uncertainty for precipitation.

  3. Development of CFD Approaches for Modeling Advanced Concepts of Nuclear Thermal Propulsion Test Facilities Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The project will be developing a CFD approach that can handle the additional complexities needed in a NTP testing facility when modeling the combustion processes in...

  4. SLUDGE BATCH 4: MODEL BASED ASSESSMENTS OF THE FEBRUARY 2007 SLUDGE PROJECTION

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peeler, D; Tommy Edwards, T; Kevin Fox, K

    2007-01-01

    The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) has developed, and continues to enhance, its integrated capability to evaluate the impact of proposed sludge preparation plans on the Defense Waste Processing Facility's (DWPF's) operation. One of the components of this integrated capability focuses on frit development which identifies a viable frit or frits for each sludge option being contemplated for DWPF processing. A frit is considered viable if its composition allows for economic fabrication and if, when it is combined with the sludge option under consideration, the DWPF property/composition models (the models of DWPF's Product Composition Control System (PCCS)) indicate that the combination has the potential for an operating window (a waste loading (WL) interval over which the sludge/frit glass system satisfies processability and durability constraints) that would allow DWPF to meet its goals for waste loading and canister production. This report documents the results of SRNL's efforts to identify candidate frit compositions and corresponding predicted operating windows (defined in terms of WL intervals) for the February 2007 compositional projection of Sludge Batch 4 (SB4) developed by the Liquid Waste Organization (LWO). The nominal compositional projection was used to assess projected operating windows (in terms of a waste loading interval over which all predicted properties were classified as acceptable) for various frits, evaluate the applicability of the 0.6 wt% SO 4 = PCCS limit to the glass systems of interest, and determine the impact (or lack thereof) to the previous SB4 variability studies. It should be mentioned that the information from this report will be coupled with assessments of melt rate to recommend a frit for SB4 processing. The results of this paper study suggest that candidate frits are available to process the nominal SB4 composition over attractive waste loadings of interest to DWPF. Specifically, two primary candidate frits for SB4

  5. Waste-efficient materials procurement for construction projects: A structural equation modelling of critical success factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ajayi, Saheed O; Oyedele, Lukumon O

    2018-05-01

    Albeit the understanding that construction waste is caused by activities ranging from all stages of project delivery process, research efforts have been concentrated on design and construction stages, while the possibility of reducing waste through materials procurement process is widely neglected. This study aims at exploring and confirming strategies for achieving waste-efficient materials procurement in construction activities. The study employs sequential exploratory mixed method approach as its methodological framework, using focus group discussion, statistical analysis and structural equation modelling. The study suggests that for materials procurement to enhance waste minimisation in construction projects, the procurement process would be characterised by four features. These include suppliers' commitment to low waste measures, low waste purchase management, effective materials delivery management and waste-efficient Bill of Quantity, all of which have significant impacts on waste minimisation. This implies that commitment of materials suppliers to such measures as take back scheme and flexibility in supplying small materials quantity, among others, are expected of materials procurement. While low waste purchase management stipulates the need for such measures as reduced packaging and consideration of pre-assembled/pre-cut materials, efficient delivery management entails effective delivery and storage system as well as adequate protection of materials during the delivery process, among others. Waste-efficient specification and bill of quantity, on the other hand, requires accurate materials take-off and ordering of materials based on accurately prepared design documents and bill of quantity. Findings of this study could assist in understanding a set of measures that should be taken during materials procurement process, thereby corroborating waste management practices at other stages of project delivery process. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  6. The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and pilot studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, W.; Hatfield, J.L.; Ruane, A.C.; Boote, K.J.; Thorburn, P.; Antle, J.M.; Nelson, G.C.; Porter, C.; Janssen, S.J.C.; Asseng, S.; Basso, B.; Ewert, F.; Wallach, D.; Baigorria, G.; Winter, J.M.

    2013-01-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact

  7. Climatic Models Ensemble-based Mid-21st Century Runoff Projections: A Bayesian Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achieng, K. O.; Zhu, J.

    2017-12-01

    There are a number of North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) climatic models that have been used to project surface runoff in the mid-21st century. Statistical model selection techniques are often used to select the model that best fits data. However, model selection techniques often lead to different conclusions. In this study, ten models are averaged in Bayesian paradigm to project runoff. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is used to project and identify effect of model uncertainty on future runoff projections. Baseflow separation - a two-digital filter which is also called Eckhardt filter - is used to separate USGS streamflow (total runoff) into two components: baseflow and surface runoff. We use this surface runoff as the a priori runoff when conducting BMA of runoff simulated from the ten RCM models. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate how well RCM multi-model ensembles simulate surface runoff, in a Bayesian framework. Specifically, we investigate and discuss the following questions: How well do ten RCM models ensemble jointly simulate surface runoff by averaging over all the models using BMA, given a priori surface runoff? What are the effects of model uncertainty on surface runoff simulation?

  8. Advancing population ecology with integral projection models: a practical guide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Merow, Cory; Dahlgren, Johan; Metcall, C. Jessica E.

    2014-01-01

    (e.g., environment). By combining regressions of vital rates, an IPM provides mechanistic insight into emergent ecological patterns such as population dynamics, species geographic distributions, or life history strategies. Here, we review important resources for building IPMs and provide...... of regression models. Many subtleties arise when scaling from vital rate regressions to population-level patterns, so we provide a set of diagnostics and guidelines to ensure that models are biologically plausible. Moreover, IPMs can exploit a large existing suite of analytical tools developed for Matrix...

  9. Governance model for integrating organizational project management (OPM with corporate practices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amr Mossalam

    2017-12-01

    Having proposed the model, it needed validation, which was done through implementing the model in organizations through automation projects. The implementation resulted in some changes in the model to achieve the required levels of accountability, responsibility, and transparency. These changes were incorporated into the model and were reflected in its modified version. Finally, the paper highlighted the recommended improvements that would enhance the future implementation of the model.

  10. How to Gain Value from a Project Management Model: Case Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riis, Eva; Eskerod, Pernille

    2010-01-01

      Recent research has shown that PM models can be a powerful creator of value for companies. This paper extends this research aiming at gaining a deeper understanding of the preconditions that must exist for harvesting the values of a common frame of reference for project management. It reports...... findings from in-depth investigations in a Danish industrial concern that considers its PM model as the core of its project activities.  ...

  11. Collaborative Project: Improving the Representation of Coastal and Estuarine Processes in Earth System Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bryan, Frank [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States); Dennis, John [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States); MacCready, Parker [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States); Whitney, Michael [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)

    2016-10-20

    This project aimed to improve long term global climate simulations by resolving and enhancing the representation of the processes involved in the cycling of freshwater through estuaries and coastal regions. This was a collaborative multi-institution project consisting of physical oceanographers, climate model developers, and computational scientists. It specifically targeted the DOE objectives of advancing simulation and predictive capability of climate models through improvements in resolution and physical process representation.

  12. Final Report Collaborative Project: Improving the Representation of Coastal and Estuarine Processes in Earth System Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bryan, Frank [Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT (United States); Dennis, John [Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT (United States); MacCready, Parker [Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT (United States); Whitney, Michael M. [Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT (United States)

    2016-09-30

    This project aimed to improve long term global climate simulations by resolving and enhancing the representation of the processes involved in the cycling of freshwater through estuaries and coastal regions. This was a collaborative multi-institution project consisting of physical oceanographers, climate model developers, and computational scientists. It specifically targeted the DOE objectives of advancing simulation and predictive capability of climate models through improvements in resolution and physical process representation.

  13. The PRODIGY project--the iterative development of the release one model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purves, I N; Sugden, B; Booth, N; Sowerby, M

    1999-01-01

    We summarise the findings of the first two research phases of the PRODIGY project and describe the guidance model for Release One of the ensuing nationally available system. This model was a result of the iterative design process of the PRODIGY research project, which took place between 1995 and 1998 in up to 183 general practices in the England. Release One of PRODIGY is now being rolled out to all (27,000) General Practitioners in England during 1999-2000.

  14. New Results from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robock, A.; Kravitz, B.

    2013-12-01

    . SRM using stratospheric aerosols would reduce ozone and enhance surface UV-B radiation, but the details depend on the size distribution of the aerosols, and the complex interaction between upwelling of ozone-poor air in the tropics, suppression of the NOx cycle, and increases of surface area density. While GeoMIP has improved confidence in the expected climate effects of geoengineering in several key areas, it has also highlighted several important research gaps, such as the effects on terrestrial net primary productivity and the importance of the CO2 physiological effect in determining the hydrologic cycle response to geoengineering. Future efforts will endeavor to address these gaps, as well as encourage cooperation with the chemistry modeling communities, the impact assessment communities (including on agriculture and ecosystems), and other groups interested in model output. We are organizing new GeoMIP experiments that address the suggestion that SRM be implemented by marine cloud brightening, and are proposing that GeoMIP be an integral part of the design of the CMIP6 project.

  15. Project MAP: Model Accounting Plan for Special Education. Final Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossi, Robert J.

    The Model Accounting Plan (MAP) is a demographic accounting system designed to meet three major goals related to improving planning, evaluation, and monitoring of special education programs. First, MAP provides local-level data for administrators and parents to monitor the progress, transition patterns, expected attainments, and associated costs…

  16. Projected Statewide Impact of "Opportunity Culture" School Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holly, Christen; Dean, Stephanie; Hassel, Emily Ayscue; Hassel, Bryan C.

    2014-01-01

    This brief estimates the impact of a statewide implementation of Opportunity Culture models, using North Carolina as an example. Impacts estimated include student learning outcomes, gross state product, teacher pay, and other career characteristics, and state income tax revenue. Estimates indicate the potential for a statewide transition to…

  17. Macro-System Model Project #AN011 (Presentation)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruth, M. F.; Diakov, V.; Sa, T. J.; Goldsby, M.

    2010-06-08

    A review of the Macro-System Model for hydrogen production pathways analysis, including objectives, accomplishments, collaborations, and future work. Presented at the 2010 U.S. Department of Energy Hydrogen Program and Vehicle Technologies Program Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting, June 7-11, 2010, in Washington, DC.

  18. A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Refsgaard, J. C.; Madsen, H.; Andréassian, V.

    2014-01-01

    Models used for climate change impact projections are typically not tested for simulation beyond current climate conditions. Since we have no data truly reflecting future conditions, a key challenge in this respect is to rigorously test models using proxies of future conditions. This paper presents...... a validation framework and guiding principles applicable across earth science disciplines for testing the capability of models to project future climate change and its impacts. Model test schemes comprising split-sample tests, differential split-sample tests and proxy site tests are discussed in relation...... to their application for projections by use of single models, ensemble modelling and space-time-substitution and in relation to use of different data from historical time series, paleo data and controlled experiments. We recommend that differential-split sample tests should be performed with best available proxy data...

  19. Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP): Experimental Design and Boundary Conditions (Experiment 2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haywood, A. M.; Dowsett, H. J.; Robinson, M. M.; Stoll, D. K.; Dolan, A. M.; Lunt, D. J.; Otto-Bliesner, B.; Chandler, M. A.

    2011-01-01

    The Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project has expanded to include a model intercomparison for the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.29 to 2.97 million yr ago). This project is referred to as PlioMIP (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project). Two experiments have been agreed upon and together compose the initial phase of PlioMIP. The first (Experiment 1) is being performed with atmosphere only climate models. The second (Experiment 2) utilizes fully coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Following on from the publication of the experimental design and boundary conditions for Experiment 1 in Geoscientific Model Development, this paper provides the necessary description of differences and/or additions to the experimental design for Experiment 2.

  20. Model of evaluating the projected payback period in energy preservation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gorshkov Aleksandr Sergeevich

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Providing energy efficiency of newly designed buildings is an important state task which is considered in EPBD directive and the latest regulations on energy saving. Though reducing energy consumption of the existing building is not less important. The majority of the existing buildings had been built before the implementation of modern energy saving programs. That’s why the volume of energy consumption in the existing buildings is greater than in new buildings. In frames of the given investigation the author considers the problem of forecasting the payback period of investment into reduction of energy consumption in a building. The formula is offered for calculating the projected payback period in energy saving with account for capital costs, calculated or actual value of the achieved energy saving effect, rise in tariffs for energy sources, discounting of the future cash flows and the volume and time for return of credit funds. Basing on the offered calculation methods it is possible to compare the efficiency of different energy saving solutions.

  1. Investigating the Capacity of Hydrological Models to Project Impacts of Climate Change in the Context of Water Allocation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velez, Carlos; Maroy, Edith; Rocabado, Ivan; Pereira, Fernando

    2017-04-01

    To analyse the impacts of climate changes, hydrological models are used to project the hydrology responds under future conditions that normally differ from those for which they were calibrated. The challenge is to assess the validity of the projected effects when there is not data to validate it. A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change was proposed by Refsgaard et al., (2014). The authors recommend the use of the differential-split sample test (DSST) in order to build confidence in the model projections. The method follow three steps: 1. A small number of sub-periods are selected according to one climate characteristics, 2. The calibration - validation test is applied on these periods, 3. The validation performances are compered to evaluate whether they vary significantly when climatic characteristics differ between calibration and validation. DSST rely on the existing records of climate and hydrological variables; and performances are estimated based on indicators of error between observed and simulated variables. Other authors suggest that, since climate models are not able to reproduce single events but rather statistical properties describing the climate, this should be reflected when testing hydrological models. Thus, performance criteria such as RMSE should be replaced by for instance flow duration curves or other distribution functions. Using this type of performance criteria, Van Steenbergen and Willems, (2012) proposed a method to test the validity of hydrological models in a climate changing context. The method is based on the evaluation of peak flow increases due to different levels of rainfall increases. In contrast to DSST, this method use the projected climate variability and it is especially useful to compare different modelling tools. In the framework of a water allocation project for the region of Flanders (Belgium) we calibrated three hydrological models: NAM, PDM and VHM; for 67 gauged sub-catchments with approx

  2. Projection pursuit water quality evaluation model based on chicken swam algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Zhe

    2018-03-01

    In view of the uncertainty and ambiguity of each index in water quality evaluation, in order to solve the incompatibility of evaluation results of individual water quality indexes, a projection pursuit model based on chicken swam algorithm is proposed. The projection index function which can reflect the water quality condition is constructed, the chicken group algorithm (CSA) is introduced, the projection index function is optimized, the best projection direction of the projection index function is sought, and the best projection value is obtained to realize the water quality evaluation. The comparison between this method and other methods shows that it is reasonable and feasible to provide decision-making basis for water pollution control in the basin.

  3. A life cycle cost economics model for projects with uniformly varying operating costs. [management planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remer, D. S.

    1977-01-01

    A mathematical model is developed for calculating the life cycle costs for a project where the operating costs increase or decrease in a linear manner with time. The life cycle cost is shown to be a function of the investment costs, initial operating costs, operating cost gradient, project life time, interest rate for capital and salvage value. The results show that the life cycle cost for a project can be grossly underestimated (or overestimated) if the operating costs increase (or decrease) uniformly over time rather than being constant as is often assumed in project economic evaluations. The following range of variables is examined: (1) project life from 2 to 30 years; (2) interest rate from 0 to 15 percent per year; and (3) operating cost gradient from 5 to 90 percent of the initial operating costs. A numerical example plus tables and graphs is given to help calculate project life cycle costs over a wide range of variables.

  4. The option to expand a project: its assessment with the binomial options pricing model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvador Cruz Rambaud

    Full Text Available Traditional methods of investment appraisal, like the Net Present Value, are not able to include the value of the operational flexibility of the project. In this paper, real options, and more specifically the option to expand, are assumed to be included in the project information in addition to the expected cash flows. Thus, to calculate the total value of the project, we are going to apply the methodology of the Net Present Value to the different scenarios derived from the existence of the real option to expand. Taking into account the analogy between real and financial options, the value of including an option to expand is explored by using the binomial options pricing model. In this way, estimating the value of the option to expand is a tool which facilitates the control of the uncertainty element implicit in the project. Keywords: Real options, Option to expand, Binomial options pricing model, Investment project appraisal

  5. Development of generic key performance indicators for PMBOK® using a 3D project integration model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Craig Langston

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Since Martin Barnes’ so-called ‘iron triangle’ circa 1969, much debate has occurred over how best to describe the fundamental constraints that underpin project success. This paper develops a 3D project integration model for PMBOK® comprising core constraints of scope, cost, time and risk as a basis to propose six generic key performance indicators (KPIs that articulate successful project delivery. These KPIs are defined as value, efficiency, speed, innovation, complexity and impact and can each be measured objectively as ratios of the core constraints. An overall KPI (denoted as s3/ctr is also derived. The aim in this paper is to set out the case for such a model and to demonstrate how it can be employed to assess the performance of project teams in delivering successful outcomes at various stages in the project life cycle. As part of the model’s development, a new PMBOK® knowledge area concerning environmental management is advanced.

  6. Transitioning from Student to Teacher in the Master-Apprentice Model of Piano Pedagogy: An Exploratory Study of Challenges, Solutions, Resources, Reflections, and Suggestions for the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slawsky, Melissa Maccarelli

    2011-01-01

    While many music educators learn how to teach through teacher training programs, the standard mode of transmission in which piano teachers learn to teach applied piano is through proficiency of the instrument under the guidance of a master teacher. This tacit development of pedagogical knowledge occurs through the master-apprentice model of…

  7. Statistical Modeling Suggests that Antiandrogens in Effluents from Wastewater Treatment Works Contribute to Widespread Sexual Disruption in Fish Living in English Rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jobling, Susan; Burn, Robert. W.; Thorpe, Karen; Williams, Richard; Tyler, Charles

    2009-01-01

    Background The widespread occurrence of feminized male fish downstream of some wastewater treatment works has led to substantial interest from ecologists and public health professionals. This concern stems from the view that the effects observed have a parallel in humans, and that both phenomena are caused by exposure to mixtures of contaminants that interfere with reproductive development. The evidence for a “wildlife–human connection” is, however, weak: Testicular dysgenesis syndrome, seen in human males, is most easily reproduced in rodent models by exposure to mixtures of antiandrogenic chemicals. In contrast, the accepted explanation for feminization of wild male fish is that it results mainly from exposure to steroidal estrogens originating primarily from human excretion. Objectives We sought to further explore the hypothesis that endocrine disruption in fish is multicausal, resulting from exposure to mixtures of chemicals with both estrogenic and antiandrogenic properties. Methods We used hierarchical generalized linear and generalized additive statistical modeling to explore the associations between modeled concentrations and activities of estrogenic and antiandrogenic chemicals in 30 U.K. rivers and feminized responses seen in wild fish living in these rivers. Results In addition to the estrogenic substances, antiandrogenic activity was prevalent in almost all treated sewage effluents tested. Further, the results of the modeling demonstrated that feminizing effects in wild fish could be best modeled as a function of their predicted exposure to both antiandrogens and estrogens or to antiandrogens alone. Conclusion The results provide a strong argument for a multicausal etiology of widespread feminization of wild fish in U.K. rivers involving contributions from both steroidal estrogens and xenoestrogens and from other (as yet unknown) contaminants with antiandrogenic properties. These results may add further credence to the hypothesis that endocrine

  8. Particle-number-projected Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov study with effective shell model interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maqbool, I.; Sheikh, J. A.; Ganai, P. A.; Ring, P.

    2011-04-01

    We perform the particle-number-projected mean-field study using the recently developed symmetry-projected Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov (HFB) equations. Realistic calculations have been performed in sd- and fp-shell nuclei using the shell model empirical interactions, USD and GXPFIA. It is demonstrated that the mean-field results for energy surfaces, obtained with these shell model interactions, are quite similar to those obtained using the density functional approaches. Further, it is shown that particle-number-projected results, for neutron-rich isotopes, can lead to different ground-state shapes in comparison to bare HFB calculations.

  9. Model projections for household energy use in India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruijven, Bas J. van; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Vries, Bert J.M. de; Isaac, Morna; van der Sluijs, Jeroen P.; Lucas, Paul L.; Balachandra, P.

    2011-01-01

    Energy use in developing countries is heterogeneous across households. Present day global energy models are mostly too aggregate to account for this heterogeneity. Here, a bottom-up model for residential energy use that starts from key dynamic concepts on energy use in developing countries is presented and applied to India. Energy use and fuel choice is determined for five end-use functions (cooking, water heating, space heating, lighting and appliances) and for five different income quintiles in rural and urban areas. The paper specifically explores the consequences of different assumptions for income distribution and rural electrification on residential sector energy use and CO 2 emissions, finding that results are clearly sensitive to variations in these parameters. As a result of population and economic growth, total Indian residential energy use is expected to increase by around 65–75% in 2050 compared to 2005, but residential carbon emissions may increase by up to 9–10 times the 2005 level. While a more equal income distribution and rural electrification enhance the transition to commercial fuels and reduce poverty, there is a trade-off in terms of higher CO 2 emissions via increased electricity use. - Highlights: ► A bottom-up model for residential energy use was developed and applied to India. ► The model distinguishes five end-use functions and rural/urban income quintiles. ► We explore consequences of income distribution and electrification on energy use. ► Equal income and electrification enhance the transition to commercial fuels. ► Higher CO 2 emissions from increased electricity use are a trade-off.

  10. Competency-Based Model for Predicting Construction Project Managers Performance

    OpenAIRE

    Dainty, A. R. J.; Cheng, M.; Moore, D. R.

    2005-01-01

    Using behavioral competencies to influence human resource management decisions is gaining popularity in business organizations. This study identifies the core competencies associated with the construction management role and further, develops a predictive model to inform human resource selection and development decisions within large construction organizations. A range of construction managers took part in behavioral event interviews where staffs were asked to recount critical management inci...

  11. SR 97 - Alternative models project. Discrete fracture network modelling for performance assessment of Aberg

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dershowitz, B.; Eiben, T.; Follin, S.; Andersson, Johan

    1999-08-01

    As part of studies into the siting of a deep repository for nuclear waste, Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has commissioned the Alternative Models Project (AMP). The AMP is a comparison of three alternative modeling approaches for geosphere performance assessment for a single hypothetical site. The hypothetical site, arbitrarily named Aberg is based on parameters from the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory in southern Sweden. The Aberg model domain, boundary conditions and canister locations are defined as a common reference case to facilitate comparisons between approaches. This report presents the results of a discrete fracture pathways analysis of the Aberg site, within the context of the SR 97 performance assessment exercise. The Aberg discrete fracture network (DFN) site model is based on consensus Aberg parameters related to the Aespoe HRL site. Discrete fracture pathways are identified from canister locations in a prototype repository design to the surface of the island or to the sea bottom. The discrete fracture pathways analysis presented in this report is used to provide the following parameters for SKB's performance assessment transport codes FARF31 and COMP23: * F-factor: Flow wetted surface normalized with regards to flow rate (yields an appreciation of the contact area available for diffusion and sorption processes) [TL -1 ]. * Travel Time: Advective transport time from a canister location to the environmental discharge [T]. * Canister Flux: Darcy flux (flow rate per unit area) past a representative canister location [LT -1 ]. In addition to the above, the discrete fracture pathways analysis in this report also provides information about: additional pathway parameters such as pathway length, pathway width, transport aperture, reactive surface area and transmissivity, percentage of canister locations with pathways to the surface discharge, spatial pattern of pathways and pathway discharges, visualization of pathways, and statistical

  12. SR 97 - Alternative models project. Discrete fracture network modelling for performance assessment of Aberg

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dershowitz, B.; Eiben, T. [Golder Associates Inc., Seattle (United States); Follin, S.; Andersson, Johan [Golder Grundteknik KB, Stockholm (Sweden)

    1999-08-01

    As part of studies into the siting of a deep repository for nuclear waste, Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has commissioned the Alternative Models Project (AMP). The AMP is a comparison of three alternative modeling approaches for geosphere performance assessment for a single hypothetical site. The hypothetical site, arbitrarily named Aberg is based on parameters from the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory in southern Sweden. The Aberg model domain, boundary conditions and canister locations are defined as a common reference case to facilitate comparisons between approaches. This report presents the results of a discrete fracture pathways analysis of the Aberg site, within the context of the SR 97 performance assessment exercise. The Aberg discrete fracture network (DFN) site model is based on consensus Aberg parameters related to the Aespoe HRL site. Discrete fracture pathways are identified from canister locations in a prototype repository design to the surface of the island or to the sea bottom. The discrete fracture pathways analysis presented in this report is used to provide the following parameters for SKB's performance assessment transport codes FARF31 and COMP23: * F-factor: Flow wetted surface normalized with regards to flow rate (yields an appreciation of the contact area available for diffusion and sorption processes) [TL{sup -1}]. * Travel Time: Advective transport time from a canister location to the environmental discharge [T]. * Canister Flux: Darcy flux (flow rate per unit area) past a representative canister location [LT{sup -1}]. In addition to the above, the discrete fracture pathways analysis in this report also provides information about: additional pathway parameters such as pathway length, pathway width, transport aperture, reactive surface area and transmissivity, percentage of canister locations with pathways to the surface discharge, spatial pattern of pathways and pathway discharges, visualization of pathways, and

  13. Goleman-Boyatzis Model of Emotional Intelligence for Dealing with Problems in Project Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Vincent Livesey

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available As projects grow in size and complexity the sizes of teams needed to manage them also increases. This places greater emphasis on the need for the project manager to develop people management skills, commonly called soft skills, of which emotional intelligence (EI has been recognised as an important component. The objective of this research was to investigate the relevance of the Goleman-Boyatzis model of EI in dealing with the problems in large projects identified via a literature review. To achieve this end, a Delphi study using project managers who had been involved in the management of projects in excess of $500 million was used. The responses from the Delphi panel were analysed and the results showed that the competencies contained in the Goleman-Boyatzis model had a relevance of 95% or greater to the problems presented to the panel. A ranking of the various competencies contained within the model was also developed, some competencies being found to be more important than others. By confirming the importance of emotional intelligence, as described by the model, this research adds to the understanding of the necessary skills needed by a project manager to successfully manage large projects.

  14. Pre-industrial to End 21st Century Projections of Tropospheric Ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, P. J.; Archibald, A. T.; Bowman, K. W.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Naik, V.; Stevenson, D. S.; Tilmes, S.; Voulgarakis, A.; Wild, O.; Bergmann, D.; hide

    2013-01-01

    Present day tropospheric ozone and its changes between 1850 and 2100 are considered, analysing 15 global models that participated in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The ensemble mean compares well against present day observations. The seasonal cycle correlates well, except for some locations in the tropical upper troposphere. Most (75 %) of the models are encompassed with a range of global mean tropospheric ozone column estimates from satellite data, but there is a suggestion of a high bias in the Northern Hemisphere and a low bias in the Southern Hemisphere, which could indicate deficiencies with the ozone precursor emissions. Compared to the present day ensemble mean tropospheric ozone burden of 337+/-23 Tg, the ensemble mean burden for 1850 time slice is approx. 30% lower. Future changes were modelled using emissions and climate projections from four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Compared to 2000, the relative changes in the ensemble mean tropospheric ozone burden in 2030 (2100) for the different RCPs are: -4% (-16 %) for RCP2.6, 2% (-7%) for RCP4.5, 1% (-9%) for RCP6.0, and 7% (18 %) for RCP8.5. Model agreement on the magnitude of the change is greatest for larger changes. Reductions in most precursor emissions are common across the RCPs and drive ozone decreases in all but RCP8.5, where doubled methane and a 40-150% greater stratospheric influx (estimated from a subset of models) increase ozone. While models with a high ozone burden for the present day also have high ozone burdens for the other time slices, no model consistently predicts large or small ozone changes; i.e. the magnitudes of the burdens and burden changes do not appear to be related simply, and the models are sensitive to emissions and climate changes in different ways. Spatial patterns of ozone changes are well correlated across most models, but are notably different for models without time evolving stratospheric ozone concentrations

  15. Endometriosis education in schools: A New Zealand model examining the impact of an education program in schools on early recognition of symptoms suggesting endometriosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bush, Deborah; Brick, Emily; East, Michael C; Johnson, Neil

    2017-08-01

    Menstrual morbidity plays a significant role in adolescent females' lives. There are no studies to date reporting such data from menstrual health education programs in schools. The aim of our study was to report results from an audit of a menstrual health and endometriosis education program in secondary schools and observe age patterns of young women presenting for menstrual morbidity care. Audit data from education in secondary schools and audit data of patients from an Endometriosis and Pelvic Pain Coaching clinic operating in a private endometriosis specialised centre are reported. In a region of consistent delivery of the education program, student awareness of endometriosis was 32% in 2015. Overall in 2015, 13% of students experienced distressing menstrual symptoms and 27% of students sometimes or always missed school due to menstrual symptoms. Further, in one region of consistent delivery of the menstrual health education program, data show an increase in younger patients attending for specialised endometriosis care. There is strong suggestive evidence that consistent delivery of a menstrual health education program in schools increases adolescent student awareness of endometriosis. In addition, there is suggestive evidence that in a geographical area of consistent delivery of the program, a shift in earlier presentation of young women to a specialised health service is observed. © 2017 The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

  16. A suggested syllabus model for a course in developing reading skills with special reference to the ELT Department at Gazi University

    OpenAIRE

    Tikence, Mevlüt

    1991-01-01

    Ankara : The Institute of Economics and Social Sciences of Bilkent Univ., 1991. Thesis (Master's) -- Bilkent University, 1991. Includes bibliographical references leaves 63-64. The focus of this study is the development of a model syllabus for an English for Specific Purposes (ESP) reading course taught to first year students of the Gazi University ELT Department. First, the general background of ESP, problems of the reading course at Gazi and the limitations of the st...

  17. Downscaled climate change projections for the Hindu Kush Himalayan region using CORDEX South Asia regional climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jayanarayanan Sanjay

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This study assessed the regional climate models (RCMs employed in the Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX South Asia framework to investigate the qualitative aspects of future change in seasonal mean near surface air temperature and precipitation over the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH region. These RCMs downscaled a subset of atmosphere ocean coupled global climate models (AOGCMs in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5 to higher 50 km spatial resolution over a large domain covering South Asia for two representation concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future scenarios. The analysis specifically examined and evaluated multi-model and multi-scenario climate change projections over the hilly sub-regions within HKH for the near-future (2036–2065 and far-future (2066–2095 periods. The downscaled multi-RCMs provide relatively better confidence than their driving AOGCMs in projecting the magnitude of seasonal warming for the hilly sub-region within the Karakoram and northwestern Himalaya, with higher projected change of 5.4 °C during winter than of 4.9 °C during summer monsoon season by the end of 21st century under the high-end emissions (RCP8.5 scenario. There is less agreement among these RCMs on the magnitude of the projected warming over the other sub-regions within HKH for both seasons, particularly associated with higher RCM uncertainty for the hilly sub-region within the central Himalaya. The downscaled multi-RCMs show good consensus and low RCM uncertainty in projecting that the summer monsoon precipitation will intensify by about 22% in the hilly sub-region within the southeastern Himalaya and Tibetan Plateau for the far-future period under the RCP8.5 scenario. There is low confidence in the projected changes in the summer monsoon and winter season precipitation over the central Himalaya and in the Karakoram and northwestern Himalaya due to poor consensus and moderate to high RCM

  18. FUNCTIONAL MODEL OF THE MATERIAL RESOURCES MANAGEMENT FOR PROJECTS OF THE CREATION OF NEW TECHNIQUES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Yu. Danshyna

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to problem of material management arising in the implementation of projects for the development and creation (modernization of the new techniques. The uniqueness of the projects, their limit on the cost and time does not allow the use of traditional approaches to resource management. Such projects are often implemented in the development of companies; where it is not possible to abandon the traditional operating methods of management. The aim of the article is a formalization of the process of material management of projects, a description of its information flows for integrate into the project management practices and for improve the efficiency of material management. For the systematization of information arising from the material resources management, invited the set-theoretic representation of the management process. According with the requirements of project management standards were described the sets and defined rules of their transformation. Specification of the set-theoretic representation helped to establish the area and limits of the modelling process. Further decomposition process became the basis of the functional model, constructed in accordance with the methodology IDEF 0. A graphical representation of the model allows you to visualize the process at different levels of detail. For specification of issues related to the organization and promotion of material flow, were developed functional models of sub-processes and were described the identified data-flows. For the harmonization of process and project approaches formulated conditions for evaluating the efficiency of material management. The developed models can be the basis for designing the structure of companies, for regulation of their project activities, as well as for establishing an information system of management resources of projects.

  19. Classification of hadith into positive suggestion, negative suggestion, and information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faraby, Said Al; Riviera Rachmawati Jasin, Eliza; Kusumaningrum, Andina; Adiwijaya

    2018-03-01

    As one of the Muslim life guidelines, based on the meaning of its sentence(s), a hadith can be viewed as a suggestion for doing something, or a suggestion for not doing something, or just information without any suggestion. In this paper, we tried to classify the Bahasa translation of hadith into the three categories using machine learning approach. We tried stemming and stopword removal in preprocessing, and TF-IDF of unigram, bigram, and trigram as the extracted features. As the classifier, we compared between SVM and Neural Network. Since the categories are new, so in order to compare the results of the previous pipelines, we created a baseline classifier using simple rule-based string matching technique. The rule-based algorithm conditions on the occurrence of words such as “janganlah, sholatlah, and so on” to determine the category. The baseline method achieved F1-Score of 0.69, while the best F1-Score from the machine learning approach was 0.88, and it was produced by SVM model with the linear kernel.

  20. Human eye modelling for ophthalmic simulators project for clinic applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanchez, Andrea; Santos, Adimir dos; Yoriyaz, Helio

    2002-01-01

    Most of eye tumors are treated by surgical means, which involves the enucleation of affected eyes. In terms of treatment and control of diseases, there is brachytherapy, which often utilizes small applicator of Co-60, I-125, Ru-106, Ir-192, etc. These methods are shown to be very efficient but highly cost. The objective of this work is propose a detailed simulator modelling for eye characterization. Additionally, this study can contribute to design and build a new applicator in order to reduce the cost and to allow more patients to be treated

  1. Robust Proactive Project Scheduling Model for the Stochastic Discrete Time/Cost Trade-Off Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongbo Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We study the project budget version of the stochastic discrete time/cost trade-off problem (SDTCTP-B from the viewpoint of the robustness in the scheduling. Given the project budget and a set of activity execution modes, each with uncertain activity time and cost, the objective of the SDTCTP-B is to minimize the expected project makespan by determining each activity’s mode and starting time. By modeling the activity time and cost using interval numbers, we propose a proactive project scheduling model for the SDTCTP-B based on robust optimization theory. Our model can generate robust baseline schedules that enable a freely adjustable level of robustness. We convert our model into its robust counterpart using a form of the mixed-integer programming model. Extensive experiments are performed on a large number of randomly generated networks to validate our model. Moreover, simulation is used to investigate the trade-off between the advantages and the disadvantages of our robust proactive project scheduling model.

  2. Analysis of central enterprise architecture elements in models of six eHealth projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virkanen, Hannu; Mykkänen, Juha

    2014-01-01

    Large-scale initiatives for eHealth services have been established in many countries on regional or national level. The use of Enterprise Architecture has been suggested as a methodology to govern and support the initiation, specification and implementation of large-scale initiatives including the governance of business changes as well as information technology. This study reports an analysis of six health IT projects in relation to Enterprise Architecture elements, focusing on central EA elements and viewpoints in different projects.

  3. Mnemonic Discrimination Deficits in First-Episode Psychosis and a Ketamine Model Suggests Dentate Gyrus Pathology Linked to N-Methyl-D-Aspartate Receptor Hypofunction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraguljac, Nina Vanessa; Carle, Matthew; Frölich, Michael A; Tran, Steve; Yassa, Michael A; White, David Matthew; Reddy, Abhishek; Lahti, Adrienne Carol

    2018-03-01

    Converging evidence from neuroimaging and postmortem studies suggests that hippocampal subfields are differentially affected in schizophrenia. Recent studies report dentate gyrus dysfunction in chronic schizophrenia, but the underlying mechanisms remain to be elucidated. Here we sought to examine if this deficit is already present in first-episode psychosis, and if N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor hypofunction, a putative central pathophysiological mechanism in schizophrenia, experimentally induced by ketamine, would result in a similar abnormality. We applied a mnemonic discrimination task selectively taxing pattern separation in two experiments: 1) a group of 23 first-episode psychosis patients and 23 matched healthy volunteers and 2) a group of 19 healthy volunteers before and during a ketamine challenge (0.27 mg/kg over 10 minutes, then 0.25 mg/kg/hour for 50 minutes, 0.01 mL/s). We calculated response bias-corrected pattern separation and recognition scores. We also examined the relationships between task performance and symptom severity as well as ketamine levels. We report a deficit in pattern separation but not recognition performance in first-episode psychosis patients compared with healthy volunteers (p = .04) and in volunteers during the ketamine challenge compared with baseline (p = .003). Exploratory analyses revealed no correlation between task performance and Repeatable Battery for the Assessment of Neuropsychological Status total scores or positive symptoms in first-episode psychosis patients, or with ketamine serum levels. We observed a mnemonic discrimination deficit but intact recognition in both datasets. Our findings suggest a tentative mechanistic link between dentate gyrus dysfunction in first-episode psychosis and N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor hypofunction. Copyright © 2017 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Cryo-EM structure of Mcm2-7 double hexamer on DNA suggests a lagging-strand DNA extrusion model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noguchi, Yasunori; Yuan, Zuanning; Bai, Lin; Schneider, Sarah; Zhao, Gongpu; Li, Huilin

    2017-01-01

    During replication initiation, the core component of the helicase—the Mcm2-7 hexamer—is loaded on origin DNA as a double hexamer (DH). The two ring-shaped hexamers are staggered, leading to a kinked axial channel. How the origin DNA interacts with the axial channel is not understood, but the interaction could provide key insights into Mcm2-7 function and regulation. Here, we report the cryo-EM structure of the Mcm2-7 DH on dsDNA and show that the DNA is zigzagged inside the central channel. Several of the Mcm subunit DNA-binding loops, such as the oligosaccharide–oligonucleotide loops, helix 2 insertion loops, and presensor 1 (PS1) loops, are well defined, and many of them interact extensively with the DNA. The PS1 loops of Mcm 3, 4, 6, and 7, but not 2 and 5, engage the lagging strand with an approximate step size of one base per subunit. Staggered coupling of the two opposing hexamers positions the DNA right in front of the two Mcm2–Mcm5 gates, with each strand being pressed against one gate. The architecture suggests that lagging-strand extrusion initiates in the middle of the DH that is composed of the zinc finger domains of both hexamers. To convert the Mcm2-7 DH structure into the Mcm2-7 hexamer structure found in the active helicase, the N-tier ring of the Mcm2-7 hexamer in the DH-dsDNA needs to tilt and shift laterally. We suggest that these N-tier ring movements cause the DNA strand separation and lagging-strand extrusion. PMID:29078375

  5. Projections of annual rainfall and surface temperature from CMIP5 models over the BIMSTEC countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattnayak, K. C.; Kar, S. C.; Dalal, Mamta; Pattnayak, R. K.

    2017-05-01

    Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) comprising Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand brings together 21% of the world population. Thus the impact of climate change in this region is a major concern for all. To study the climate change, fifth phase of Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) models have been used to project the climate for the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 over the BIMSTEC countries for the period 1901 to 2100 (initial 105 years are historical period and the later 95 years are projected period). Climate change in the projected period has been examined with respect to the historical period. In order to validate the models, the mean annual rainfall has been compared with observations from multiple sources and temperature has been compared with the data from Climatic Research Unit (CRU) during the historical period. Comparison reveals that ensemble mean of the models is able to represent the observed spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature over the BIMSTEC countries. Therefore, data from these models may be used to study the future changes in the 21st century. Four out of six models show that the rainfall over India, Thailand and Myanmar has decreasing trend and Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka show an increasing trend in both the RCP scenarios. In case of temperature, all the models show an increasing trend over all the BIMSTEC countries in both the scenarios, however, the rate of increase is relatively less over Sri Lanka than the other countries. The rate of increase/decrease in rainfall and temperature are relatively more in RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 over all these countries. Inter-model comparison show that there are uncertainties within the CMIP5 model projections. More similar studies are required to be done for better understanding the model uncertainties in climate projections over this region.

  6. Sustainable model for financial viability of decentralized biomass gasifier based power projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palit, Debajit; Malhotra, Ramit; Kumar, Atul

    2011-01-01

    This paper made a modest attempt for designing a sustainable model for financial viability of biomass gasifier power projects for enhancing electricity access in India and other developing countries. For long term sustainability of distributed generation projects in remote rural areas, viability from both project implementing agency (PIA) and the end-users need to be ensured. The minimum required prices of electricity from both PIA and end-user perspective have been estimated. While for PIA the cost recovery is the key for viability, the affordability to pay the electricity cost is crucial for the end users. Analysis carried out in this paper on the basis of data obtained from operational projects implemented in India reveal that it is essential to operate the system at a higher capacity utilization factor. While this can be achieved though creating convergence with locally relevant economic activity, it is also observed that micro-enterprises cannot pay beyond a certain price of electricity to keep it sustainable. This paper sets forth a case for developing a regulatory mechanism to extend the tariff fixation for the projects and providing cross-subsidies to ensure long term sustainability of off-grid project. - Highlights: → We design sustainable financial model for viability of biomass gasifier projects. → Analysis based on field data obtained from operational projects in India. Estimated electricity pricing from both implementing agency and end-users perspective. → A regulatory mechanism for tariff fixation and cross subsidization is recommended.

  7. DOE International Collaboration; Seismic Modeling and Simulation Capability Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leininger, Lara D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Settgast, Randolph R. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2010-10-12

    The following report describes the development and exercise of a new capability at LLNL to model complete, non-linear, seismic events in 3-dimensions with a fully-coupled soil structure interaction response. This work is specifically suited to nuclear reactor design because this design space is exempt from the Seismic Design requirements of International Building Code (IBC) and the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) [4,2]. Both IBC and ASCE-7 exempt nuclear reactors because they are considered “structures that require special consideration” and their design is governed only by “other regulations”. In the case of nuclear reactors, the regulations are from both the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) [10] and ASCE 43 [3]. This current framework of design guidance, coupled to this new and evolving capability to provide high fidelity design solutions as presented in this report, enables the growing field of Performance-Based Design (PBD) for nuclear reactors subjected to earthquake ground motions.

  8. Modeling Tool to Quantify Metal Sources in Stormwater Discharges at Naval Facilities (NESDI Project 455)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    demonstration/validation project to assess the use of the urban stormwater model Windows Source Loading and Management Model (WinSLAMM) to characterize...the urban stormwater model Windows Source Loading and Management Model (WinSlamm) to characterize sources of copper and zinc in storm runoff at Navy...are ubiquitous contaminants found in stormwater discharges in urban and industrialized areas. These contaminants originate from a variety of sources

  9. Conceptual Model Development for Sea Turtle Nesting Habitat: Support for USACE Navigation Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-01

    model in order to provide a relative suitability of habitat in areas with overlapping critical habitat designation and USACE projects. The model results...2006). The model will be formulated based on the key spatial parameters and regional value ranges to determine relative nesting habitat suitability ...Guantanamo Bay, Cuba: A comparison of habitat suitability index models . Chelonian Conservation and Biology 5(2):175–187. Varela-Acevedo, E., K. L

  10. Simplified modeling photo-ionisation of uranium in Silva project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodin, B.; Pourre-Brichot, P.; Valadier, L.

    2000-01-01

    SILVA is a process which targets 235 U by photo-ionization. It is therefore important to compute the proportion of ionized atoms depending on the properties of the lasers. The interaction between atoms and lasers occurs via the link between the Maxwell and Schroedinger equations. This kind of approach is only feasible for a few simple cases: e.g. wave plane or simple laser profiling. Introducing the characteristics of SILVA, computation time increases substantially (several hundred days per kilogram of vapor). To circumvent this problem, we wrote a program (Jackpot) that treats photo-ionization by a simplified model: kinetics equations. However, various optical components were introduced with absorption factor by wavelength, to account for the effects of optics systems on the trajectory. Instead of seeking the complex wavefunction solutions of the Maxwell-Schroedinger equations, we solve a system where the unknown values are a set of populations. The size of the set depends only on the number of hold points in the process. Recent work shows that we can converge towards the same results as the Maxwell-Schroedinger system if we can fit the cross-sections of the kinetic system correctly. As to the optical aspect, Jackpot can handle diffraction. In this case, it solves the propagation equation of an electric field by a double Fourier transform method. For interactions with mirrors, the new direction of a ray is calculated with Descartes law, applying a numerical phase mask to the electric field. We account for diaphragmation mechanisms as well as the absorption law for each mirror, by a real factor by wavelength. Jackpot is simple to use and can be used to predict experimental results. Jackpot is now a library calling by a script written in Python. Changes are being made for a closer approach to reality (real laser, new photo-ionization model)

  11. Crystal structure of Mycobacterium tuberculosis ClpP1P2 suggests a model for peptidase activation by AAA+ partner binding and substrate delivery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmitz, Karl R; Carney, Daniel W; Sello, Jason K; Sauer, Robert T

    2014-10-28

    Caseinolytic peptidase P (ClpP), a double-ring peptidase with 14 subunits, collaborates with ATPases associated with diverse activities (AAA+) partners to execute ATP-dependent protein degradation. Although many ClpP enzymes self-assemble into catalytically active homo-tetradecamers able to cleave small peptides, the Mycobacterium tuberculosis enzyme consists of discrete ClpP1 and ClpP2 heptamers that require a AAA+ partner and protein-substrate delivery or a peptide agonist to stabilize assembly of the active tetradecamer. Here, we show that cyclic acyldepsipeptides (ADEPs) and agonist peptides synergistically activate ClpP1P2 by mimicking AAA+ partners and substrates, respectively, and determine the structure of the activated complex. Our studies establish the basis of heteromeric ClpP1P2 assembly and function, reveal tight coupling between the conformations of each ring, show that ADEPs bind only to one ring but appear to open the axial pores of both rings, provide a foundation for rational drug development, and suggest strategies for studying the roles of individual ClpP1 and ClpP2 rings in Clp-family proteolysis.

  12. Electrical conductivity of old oceanic mantle in the northwestern Pacific I: 1-D profiles suggesting differences in thermal structure not predictable from a plate cooling model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baba, Kiyoshi; Tada, Noriko; Matsuno, Tetsuo; Liang, Pengfei; Li, Ruibai; Zhang, Luolei; Shimizu, Hisayoshi; Abe, Natsue; Hirano, Naoto; Ichiki, Masahiro; Utada, Hisashi

    2017-08-01

    Seafloor magnetotelluric (MT) experiments were recently conducted in two areas of the northwestern Pacific to investigate the nature of the old oceanic upper mantle. The areas are far from any tectonic activity, and "normal" mantle structure is therefore expected. The data were carefully analyzed to reduce the effects of coastlines and seafloor topographic changes, which are significant boundaries in electrical conductivity and thus distort seafloor MT data. An isotropic, one-dimensional electrical conductivity profile was estimated for each area. The profiles were compared with those obtained from two previous study areas in the northwestern Pacific. Between the four profiles, significant differences were observed in the thickness of the resistive layer beyond expectations based on cooling of homogeneous oceanic lithosphere over time. This surprising feature is now further clarified from what was suggested in a previous study. To explain the observed spatial variation, dynamic processes must be introduced, such as influence of the plume associated with the formation of the Shatsky Rise, or spatially non-uniform, small-scale convection in the asthenosphere. There is significant room of further investigation to determine a reasonable and comprehensive interpretation of the lithosphere-asthenosphere system beneath the northwestern Pacific. The present results demonstrate that electrical conductivity provides key information for such investigation.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  13. Complete mtDNA sequences of two millipedes suggest a new model for mitochondrial gene rearrangements: Duplication and non-random loss

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lavrov, Dennis V.; Boore, Jeffrey L.; Brown, Wesley M.

    2001-11-08

    We determined the complete mtDNA sequences of the millipedes Narceus annularus and Thyropygus sp. (Arthropoda: Diplopoda) and identified in both genomes all 37 genes typical for metazoan mtDNA. The arrangement of these genes is identical in the two millipedes, but differs from that inferred to be ancestral for arthropods by the location of four genes/gene clusters. This novel gene arrangement is unusual for animal mtDNA, in that genes with opposite transcriptional polarities are clustered in the genome and the two clusters are separated by two non-coding regions. The only exception to this pattern is the gene for cysteine tRNA, which is located in the part of the genome that otherwise contains all genes with the opposite transcriptional polarity. We suggest that a mechanism involving complete mtDNA duplication followed by the loss of genes, predetermined by their transcriptional polarity and location in the genome, could generate this gene arrangement from the one ancestral for arthropods. The proposed mechanism has important implications for phylogenetic inferences that are drawn on the basis of gene arrangement comparisons.

  14. Auditory function in the Tc1 mouse model of down syndrome suggests a limited region of human chromosome 21 involved in otitis media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuhn, Stephanie; Ingham, Neil; Pearson, Selina; Gribble, Susan M; Clayton, Stephen; Steel, Karen P; Marcotti, Walter

    2012-01-01

    Down syndrome is one of the most common congenital disorders leading to a wide range of health problems in humans, including frequent otitis media. The Tc1 mouse carries a significant part of human chromosome 21 (Hsa21) in addition to the full set of mouse chromosomes and shares many phenotypes observed in humans affected by Down syndrome with trisomy of chromosome 21. However, it is unknown whether Tc1 mice exhibit a hearing phenotype and might thus represent a good model for understanding the hearing loss that is common in Down syndrome. In this study we carried out a structural and functional assessment of hearing in Tc1 mice. Auditory brainstem response (ABR) measurements in Tc1 mice showed normal thresholds compared to littermate controls and ABR waveform latencies and amplitudes were equivalent to controls. The gross anatomy of the middle and inner ears was also similar between Tc1 and control mice. The physiological properties of cochlear sensory receptors (inner and outer hair cells: IHCs and OHCs) were investigated using single-cell patch clamp recordings from the acutely dissected cochleae. Adult Tc1 IHCs exhibited normal resting membrane potentials and expressed all K(+) currents characteristic of control hair cells. However, the size of the large conductance (BK) Ca(2+) activated K(+) current (I(K,f)), which enables rapid voltage responses essential for accurate sound encoding, was increased in Tc1 IHCs. All physiological properties investigated in OHCs were indistinguishable between the two genotypes. The normal functional hearing and the gross structural anatomy of the middle and inner ears in the Tc1 mouse contrast to that observed in the Ts65Dn model of Down syndrome which shows otitis media. Genes that are trisomic in Ts65Dn but disomic in Tc1 may predispose to otitis media when an additional copy is active.

  15. Primordial germ cell development in the marmoset monkey as revealed by pluripotency factor expression: suggestion of a novel model of embryonic germ cell translocation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aeckerle, N; Drummer, C; Debowski, K; Viebahn, C; Behr, R

    2015-01-01

    Primordial germ cells (PGCs) are the embryonic progenitors of sperm and egg cells. Mammalian PGCs are thought to actively migrate from the yolk sac endoderm over long distances across the embryo to reach the somatic genital ridges. The general principles of mammalian PGC development were discovered in mice. In contrast, little is known about PGC development in primates due to extremely limited access to primate embryos. Here, we analyzed 12 well preserved marmoset monkey (Callithrix jacchus) embryos covering the phase from PGC emergence in the endoderm to the formation of the sexually differentiated gonad (embryonic day (E) 50 to E95). We show using immunohistochemistry that the pluripotency factors OCT4A and NANOG specifically mark PGCs throughout the period studied. In contrast, SALL4 and LIN28 were first expressed ubiquitously and only later down-regulated in somatic tissues. We further show, for the first time, that PGCs are located in the endoderm in E50 embryos in close spatial proximity to the prospective genital ridge, making a long-range migration of PGCs dispensable. At E65, PGCs are already present in the primitive gonad, while significantly later embryonic stages still exhibit PGCs at their original endodermal site, revealing a wide spatio-temporal window of PGC distribution. Our findings challenge the 'dogma' of active long-range PGC migration from the endoderm to the gonads. We therefore favor an alternative model based primarily on passive translocation of PGCs from the mesenchyme that surrounds the gut to the prospective gonad through the intercalar expansion of mesenchymal tissue which contains the PGCs. In summary, we (i) show differential pluripotency factor expression during primate embryo development and (ii) provide a schematic model for embryonic PGC translocation. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology.

  16. Auditory function in the Tc1 mouse model of down syndrome suggests a limited region of human chromosome 21 involved in otitis media.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie Kuhn

    Full Text Available Down syndrome is one of the most common congenital disorders leading to a wide range of health problems in humans, including frequent otitis media. The Tc1 mouse carries a significant part of human chromosome 21 (Hsa21 in addition to the full set of mouse chromosomes and shares many phenotypes observed in humans affected by Down syndrome with trisomy of chromosome 21. However, it is unknown whether Tc1 mice exhibit a hearing phenotype and might thus represent a good model for understanding the hearing loss that is common in Down syndrome. In this study we carried out a structural and functional assessment of hearing in Tc1 mice. Auditory brainstem response (ABR measurements in Tc1 mice showed normal thresholds compared to littermate controls and ABR waveform latencies and amplitudes were equivalent to controls. The gross anatomy of the middle and inner ears was also similar between Tc1 and control mice. The physiological properties of cochlear sensory receptors (inner and outer hair cells: IHCs and OHCs were investigated using single-cell patch clamp recordings from the acutely dissected cochleae. Adult Tc1 IHCs exhibited normal resting membrane potentials and expressed all K(+ currents characteristic of control hair cells. However, the size of the large conductance (BK Ca(2+ activated K(+ current (I(K,f, which enables rapid voltage responses essential for accurate sound encoding, was increased in Tc1 IHCs. All physiological properties investigated in OHCs were indistinguishable between the two genotypes. The normal functional hearing and the gross structural anatomy of the middle and inner ears in the Tc1 mouse contrast to that observed in the Ts65Dn model of Down syndrome which shows otitis media. Genes that are trisomic in Ts65Dn but disomic in Tc1 may predispose to otitis media when an additional copy is active.

  17. A new approach for modelling variability in residential construction projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehrdad Arashpour

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The construction industry is plagued by long cycle times caused by variability in the supply chain. Variations or undesirable situations are the result of factors such as non-standard practices, work site accidents, inclement weather conditions and faults in design. This paper uses a new approach for modelling variability in construction by linking relative variability indicators to processes. Mass homebuilding sector was chosen as the scope of the analysis because data is readily available. Numerous simulation experiments were designed by varying size of capacity buffers in front of trade contractors, availability of trade contractors, and level of variability in homebuilding processes. The measurements were shown to lead to an accurate determination of relationships between these factors and production parameters. The variability indicator was found to dramatically affect the tangible performance measures such as home completion rates. This study provides for future analysis of the production homebuilding sector, which may lead to improvements in performance and a faster product delivery to homebuyers.

  18. A new approach for modelling variability in residential construction projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehrdad Arashpour

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The construction industry is plagued by long cycle times caused by variability in the supply chain. Variations or undesirable situations are the result of factors such as non-standard practices, work site accidents, inclement weather conditions and faults in design. This paper uses a new approach for modelling variability in construction by linking relative variability indicators to processes. Mass homebuilding sector was chosen as the scope of the analysis because data is readily available. Numerous simulation experiments were designed by varying size of capacity buffers in front of trade contractors, availability of trade contractors, and level of variability in homebuilding processes. The measurements were shown to lead to an accurate determination of relationships between these factors and production parameters. The variability indicator was found to dramatically affect the tangible performance measures such as home completion rates. This study provides for future analysis of the production homebuilding sector, which may lead to improvements in performance and a faster product delivery to homebuyers. 

  19. PERLUASAN IMPLEMENTASI PENDIDIKAN KEWIRAUSAHAAN MODEL PROJECT BASED LEARNING BAGI REMAJA PUTUS SEKOLAH KORBAN GEMPA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moerdiyanto Moerdiyanto

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: Widen Implementation of Entrepreneurship Education Using Project Based Learning Model for Earthquake Victim Drop Out Teenagers. This action research aims at figuring out achievement level of entrepreneurship personalities mastering and business skills held by drop out teenagers after taking part in real business learning experience using Project Based Learning. The population for this study is all of the earthquake victim drop out teenagers in Piyungan, Pleret, and Sewon Bantul Yogyakarta Special Territory.  Interviewed, questionnaire, observation, and documentation are employed to collect data. The results show that entrepreneurship education using Project Based Learning model leads to highly mastering of entrepreneurship personalities (soft skill and highly mastering of business skills (hard skill. Furthermore, through this study Kelompok Usaha Mandiri (Group of Independent Business is created, and then the drop out teenagers can run their own business.   Keyword: business skill, project based learning, soft skill, hard skill   Abstrak: Perluasan Implementasi Pendidikan Kewirausahaan Model Project Based Learning Bagi Remaja Putus Sekolah Korban Gempa. Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian tindakan dengan tujuan untuk mengetahui tingkat keberhasilan penguasaan kepribadian (jiwa kewirausahaan dan keterampilan usaha yang dimiliki Remaja Putus Sekolah (RPS setelah memperoleh pengalaman belajar bisnis riil dengan model Project Based Learning. Populasi dalam penelitian ini adalah semua remaja putus sekolah korban gempa di Kecamatan Piyungan, Kecamatan Pleret, dan Kecamatan Sewon Kabupaten Bantul DIY. Teknik pengumpulan data menggunakan wawancara, angket, observasi, dokumentasi, dan pemberian tugas. Data dianalisis menggunakan teknik deskriptif kuantitatif dan kualitatif. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pemberian pendidikan kewirausahaan dengan menggunakan model Project Based Learning bisa berhasil dengan baik yang ditunjukkan dengan

  20. Projected changes in haze pollution potential in China: an ensemble of regional climate model simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Han

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Based on the dynamic downscaling by the regional climate model RegCM4 from three CMIP5 global models under the historical and the RCP4.5 simulations, this article evaluated the performance of the RegCM4 downscaling simulations on the air environment carrying capacity (AEC and weak ventilation days (WVDs in China, which are applied to measure haze pollution potential. Their changes during the middle and the end of the 21st century were also projected. The evaluations show that the RegCM4 downscaling simulations can generally capture the observed features of the AEC and WVD distributions over the period 1986–2005. The projections indicate that the annual AEC tends to decrease and the annual WVDs tend to increase over almost the whole country except central China, concurrent with greater change by the late 21st century than by the middle of the 21st century. It suggests that annual haze pollution potential would be enlarged under the RCP4.5 scenario compared to the present. For seasonal change in the four main economic zones of China, it is projected consistently that there would be a higher probability of haze pollution risk over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH region and the Yangtze River Delta (YRD region in winter and over the Pearl River Delta (PRD region in spring and summer in the context of the warming scenario. Over Northeast China (NEC, future climate change might reduce the AEC or increase the WVDs throughout the whole year, which favours the occurrence of haze pollution and thus the haze pollution risk would be aggravated. The relative contribution of different components related to the AEC change further indicates that changes in the boundary layer depth and the wind speed play leading roles in the AEC change over the BTH and NEC regions. In addition to those two factors, the precipitation change also exerts important impacts on the AEC change over the YRD and PRD zones.