Partitioning uncertainty in streamflow projections under nonstationary model conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Chawla, Ila; Mujumdar, P. P.

2018-02-01

Assessing the impacts of Land Use (LU) and climate change on future streamflow projections is necessary for efficient management of water resources. However, model projections are burdened with significant uncertainty arising from various sources. Most of the previous studies have considered climate models and scenarios as major sources of uncertainty, but uncertainties introduced by land use change and hydrologic model assumptions are rarely investigated. In this paper an attempt is made to segregate the contribution from (i) general circulation models (GCMs), (ii) emission scenarios, (iii) land use scenarios, (iv) stationarity assumption of the hydrologic model, and (v) internal variability of the processes, to overall uncertainty in streamflow projections using analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach. Generally, most of the impact assessment studies are carried out with unchanging hydrologic model parameters in future. It is, however, necessary to address the nonstationarity in model parameters with changing land use and climate. In this paper, a regression based methodology is presented to obtain the hydrologic model parameters with changing land use and climate scenarios in future. The Upper Ganga Basin (UGB) in India is used as a case study to demonstrate the methodology. The semi-distributed Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is set-up over the basin, under nonstationary conditions. Results indicate that model parameters vary with time, thereby invalidating the often-used assumption of model stationarity. The streamflow in UGB under the nonstationary model condition is found to reduce in future. The flows are also found to be sensitive to changes in land use. Segregation results suggest that model stationarity assumption and GCMs along with their interactions with emission scenarios, act as dominant sources of uncertainty. This paper provides a generalized framework for hydrologists to examine stationarity assumption of models before considering them

Intraspecific niche models for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) suggest potential variability in population-level response to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Maguire, Kaitlin C.; Shinneman, Douglas; Potter, Kevin M.; Hipkins, Valerie D.

2018-01-01

Unique responses to climate change can occur across intraspecific levels, resulting in individualistic adaptation or movement patterns among populations within a given species. Thus, the need to model potential responses among genetically distinct populations within a species is increasingly recognized. However, predictive models of future distributions are regularly fit at the species level, often because intraspecific variation is unknown or is identified only within limited sample locations. In this study, we considered the role of intraspecific variation to shape the geographic distribution of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), an ecologically and economically important tree species in North America. Morphological and genetic variation across the distribution of ponderosa pine suggest the need to model intraspecific populations: the two varieties (var. ponderosa and var. scopulorum) and several haplotype groups within each variety have been shown to occupy unique climatic niches, suggesting populations have distinct evolutionary lineages adapted to different environmental conditions. We utilized a recently-available, geographically-widespread dataset of intraspecific variation (haplotypes) for ponderosa pine and a recently-devised lineage distance modeling approach to derive additional, likely intraspecific occurrence locations. We confirmed the relative uniqueness of each haplotype-climate relationship using a niche-overlap analysis, and developed ecological niche models (ENMs) to project the distribution for two varieties and eight haplotypes under future climate forecasts. Future projections of haplotype niche distributions generally revealed greater potential range loss than predicted for the varieties. This difference may reflect intraspecific responses of distinct evolutionary lineages. However, directional trends are generally consistent across intraspecific levels, and include a loss of distributional area and an upward shift in elevation. Our results

Intraspecific niche models for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) suggest potential variability in population-level response to climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Maguire, Kaitlin C; Shinneman, Douglas J; Potter, Kevin M; Hipkins, Valerie D

2018-03-14

Unique responses to climate change can occur across intraspecific levels, resulting in individualistic adaptation or movement patterns among populations within a given species. Thus, the need to model potential responses among genetically distinct populations within a species is increasingly recognized. However, predictive models of future distributions are regularly fit at the species level, often because intraspecific variation is unknown or is identified only within limited sample locations. In this study, we considered the role of intraspecific variation to shape the geographic distribution of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), an ecologically and economically important tree species in North America. Morphological and genetic variation across the distribution of ponderosa pine suggest the need to model intraspecific populations: the two varieties (var. ponderosa and var. scopulorum) and several haplotype groups within each variety have been shown to occupy unique climatic niches, suggesting populations have distinct evolutionary lineages adapted to different environmental conditions. We utilized a recently-available, geographically-widespread dataset of intraspecific variation (haplotypes) for ponderosa pine and a recently-devised lineage distance modeling approach to derive additional, likely intraspecific occurrence locations. We confirmed the relative uniqueness of each haplotype-climate relationship using a niche-overlap analysis, and developed ecological niche models (ENMs) to project the distribution for two varieties and eight haplotypes under future climate forecasts. Future projections of haplotype niche distributions generally revealed greater potential range loss than predicted for the varieties. This difference may reflect intraspecific responses of distinct evolutionary lineages. However, directional trends are generally consistent across intraspecific levels, and include a loss of distributional area and an upward shift in elevation. Our results

Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

2009-01-01

This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating...... to supplement Optimism Bias and the associated Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) technique with a new technique that makes use of a scenario-grid. We tentatively introduce and refer to this as Reference Scenario Forecasting (RSF). The final RSF output from the CBA-DK model consists of a set of scenario......-based graphs which function as risk-related decision support for the appraised transport infrastructure project....

Competency model for the project managers of technical projects

Science.gov (United States)

Duncan, William R.

1992-05-01

Traditional job description techniques were developed to support compensation decisions for hourly wage earners in a manufacturing environment. Their resultant focus on activities performed on the job works well in this environment where the ability to perform the activity adequately is objectively verifiable by testing and observation. Although many organizations have adapted these techniques for salaried employees and service environments, the focus on activities performed has never been satisfactory. For example, stating that a project manager `prepares regular project status reports' tells us little about what to look for in a potential project manager or how to determine if a practicing project manager is ready for additional responsibilities. The concept of a `competency model' has been developed within the last decade to address this shortcoming. Competency models focus on what skills are needed to perform the tasks defined by the job description. For example, a project manager must be able to communicate well both orally and in writing in order to `prepare regular project status reports.'

Effects of climate model interdependency on the uncertainty quantification of extreme rainfall projections

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Madsen, H.; Rosbjerg, Dan

Climate Models (RCMs) and General Circulation Models (GCMs). These multi-model ensembles provide the information needed to estimate probabilistic climate change projections. Several probabilistic methods have been suggested. One common assumption in most of these methods is that the climate models...... are independent. The effects of this assumption on the uncertainty quantification of extreme rainfall projections are addressed in this study. First, the interdependency of the 95% quantile of wet days in the ENSEMBLES RCMs is estimated. For this statistic and the region studied, the RCMs cannot be assumed...

Beyond theory : Towards a probabilistic causation model to support project governance in infrastructure projects

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chivatá Cárdenas, Ibsen; Voordijk, Johannes T.; Dewulf, Geert

2017-01-01

A new project governance model for infrastructure projects is described in this paper. This model contains causal mechanisms that relate a number of project governance variables to project performance. Our proposed model includes relevant variables for measuring project governance in construction

A decision model for E and P petroleum projects using real options and preference theory

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lima, Gabriel A.C. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias. Lab. de Analise Geoconomica (LAGE); Suslick, Saul B. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias. Centro de Estudo do Petroleo; Nepomuceno Filho, Francisco [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2004-07-01

The results from Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) are limited as a tool for decision-making in the petroleum industry because they do not properly take into account three important features of the modern investments: uncertainty, irreversibility, timing and corporation's risk-aversion. Recent developments in real options and preference theories have allowed decision-makers to employ these two approaches separately in the process of valuation and decision-making of risky projects. This paper presents a model for valuation and decision-making integrating discounted cash flow, real options and reference theory. This model seems to be suitable to answer to the following questions: what is the current value of an oil project? what is the optimal working interest in this project venture?; what is criteria to select projects considering investment irreversibility, uncertainty and timing to implement decisions? This model is applied to valuation and decision-making of a project to produce oil from a deep-water reservoir and its results are compared to those of the traditional approach. NPV model suggest that, as the project value is above its investment cost, the corporation should invest immediately and take 100% working interest in the project. Contrarily, the integrated model suggest the corporation should invest as long as project current value is as large as 1.85 times investment cost and should take only 44.38% working interest, whereas partners fund and acquire the remaining 55,62% of the project. In general, results indicate that NPV tend to pay more attention on return and does not account properly for risk. Then, as the uncertainty or volatile of strategic variables increases, the two models give more divergent results. (author)

A Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model for Sustainability Risk Evaluation of PPP Projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Libiao Bai

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Evaluating the sustainability risk level of public–private partnership (PPP projects can reduce project risk incidents and achieve the sustainable development of the organization. However, the existing studies about PPP projects risk management mainly focus on exploring the impact of financial and revenue risks but ignore the sustainability risks, causing the concept of “sustainability” to be missing while evaluating the risk level of PPP projects. To evaluate the sustainability risk level and achieve the most important objective of providing a reference for the public and private sectors when making decisions on PPP project management, this paper constructs a factor system of sustainability risk of PPP projects based on an extensive literature review and develops a mathematical model based on the methods of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model (FCEM and failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA for evaluating the sustainability risk level of PPP projects. In addition, this paper conducts computational experiment based on a questionnaire survey to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of this proposed model. The results suggest that this model is reasonable for evaluating the sustainability risk level of PPP projects. To our knowledge, this paper is the first study to evaluate the sustainability risk of PPP projects, which would not only enrich the theories of project risk management, but also serve as a reference for the public and private sectors for the sustainable planning and development. Keywords: sustainability risk eva

Constrained bayesian inference of project performance models

OpenAIRE

Sunmola, Funlade

2013-01-01

Project performance models play an important role in the management of project success. When used for monitoring projects, they can offer predictive ability such as indications of possible delivery problems. Approaches for monitoring project performance relies on available project information including restrictions imposed on the project, particularly the constraints of cost, quality, scope and time. We study in this paper a Bayesian inference methodology for project performance modelling in ...

A Management Maturity Model (MMM for project-based organisational performance assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Craig Langston

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Common sense suggests that organisations are more likely to deliver successful projects if they have systems in place that reflect a mature project environment based on a culture of continuous improvement. This paper develops and discusses a Management Maturity Model (MMM to assess the maturity of project management organisations through a customisable, systematic, strategic and practical methodology inspired from the seminal work of Darwin, Deming, Drucker and Daniel. The model presented is relevant to organisations, such as construction and engineering companies, that prefer to use the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK™ Guide published by the Project Management Institute (PMI, but without the disadvantages of excessive time and cost commitments and a ‘one size fits all’ approach linked to rigid increments of maturity. It offers a game-changing advance in the application of project-based organisational performance assessment compared to existing market solutions that are unnecessarily complex. The feasibility of MMM is field-tested using a medium-sized data centre infrastructure firm in Tehran.

Spiral model pilot project information model

Science.gov (United States)

1991-01-01

The objective was an evaluation of the Spiral Model (SM) development approach to allow NASA Marshall to develop an experience base of that software management methodology. A discussion is presented of the Information Model (IM) that was used as part of the SM methodology. A key concept of the SM is the establishment of an IM to be used by management to track the progress of a project. The IM is the set of metrics that is to be measured and reported throughout the life of the project. These metrics measure both the product and the process to ensure the quality of the final delivery item and to ensure the project met programmatic guidelines. The beauty of the SM, along with the IM, is the ability to measure not only the correctness of the specification and implementation of the requirements but to also obtain a measure of customer satisfaction.

An anatomy of the projected North Atlantic warming hole in CMIP5 models

Science.gov (United States)

Menary, Matthew B.; Wood, Richard A.

2018-04-01

Global mean surface air temperature has increased over the past century and climate models project this trend to continue. However, the pattern of change is not homogeneous. Of particular interest is the subpolar North Atlantic, which has cooled in recent years and is projected to continue to warm less rapidly than the global mean. This is often termed the North Atlantic warming hole (WH). In climate model projections, the development of the WH is concomitant with a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Here, we further investigate the possible link between the AMOC and WH and the competing drivers of vertical mixing and surface heat fluxes. Across a large ensemble of 41 climate models we find that the spatial structure of the WH varies considerably from model to model but is generally upstream of the simulated deep water formation regions. A heat budget analysis suggests the formation of the WH is related to changes in ocean heat transport. Although the models display a plethora of AMOC mean states, they generally predict a weakening and shallowing of the AMOC also consistent with the evolving depth structure of the WH. A lagged regression analysis during the WH onset phase suggests that reductions in wintertime mixing lead a weakening of the AMOC by 5 years in turn leading initiation of the WH by 5 years. Inter-model differences in the evolution and structure of the WH are likely to lead to somewhat different projected climate impacts in nearby Europe and North America.

Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

2012-01-01

This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating...... to supplement Optimism Bias and the associated Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) technique with a new technique that makes use of a scenario-grid. We tentatively introduce and refer to this as Reference Scenario Forecasting (RSF). The final RSF output from the CBA-DK model consists of a set of scenario......-based graphs which functions as risk-related decision support for the appraised transport infrastructure project. The presentation of RSF is demonstrated by using an appraisal case concerning a new airfield in the capital of Greenland, Nuuk....

Teaching mathematical modelling through project work

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Blomhøj, Morten; Kjeldsen, Tinne Hoff

2006-01-01

are reported in manners suitable for internet publication for colleagues. The reports and the related discussions reveal interesting dilemmas concerning the teaching of mathematical modelling and how to cope with these through “setting the scene” for the students modelling projects and through dialogues......The paper presents and analyses experiences from developing and running an in-service course in project work and mathematical modelling for mathematics teachers in the Danish gymnasium, e.g. upper secondary level, grade 10-12. The course objective is to support the teachers to develop, try out...... in their own classes, evaluate and report a project based problem oriented course in mathematical modelling. The in-service course runs over one semester and includes three seminars of 3, 1 and 2 days. Experiences show that the course objectives in general are fulfilled and that the course projects...

World Energy Projection System model documentation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hutzler, M.J.; Anderson, A.T.

1997-09-01

The World Energy Projection System (WEPS) was developed by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting within the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the independent statistical and analytical agency of the US Department of Energy. WEPS is an integrated set of personal computer based spreadsheets containing data compilations, assumption specifications, descriptive analysis procedures, and projection models. The WEPS accounting framework incorporates projections from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product GDP), and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by natural gas, coal, and renewable energy sources (hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, wind, biomass, and other renewable resources). Projections produced by WEPS are published in the annual report, International Energy Outlook. This report documents the structure and procedures incorporated in the 1998 version of the WEPS model. It has been written to provide an overview of the structure of the system and technical details about the operation of each component of the model for persons who wish to know how WEPS projections are produced by EIA

World Energy Projection System model documentation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hutzler, M.J.; Anderson, A.T.

1997-09-01

The World Energy Projection System (WEPS) was developed by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting within the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the independent statistical and analytical agency of the US Department of Energy. WEPS is an integrated set of personal computer based spreadsheets containing data compilations, assumption specifications, descriptive analysis procedures, and projection models. The WEPS accounting framework incorporates projections from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product GDP), and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by natural gas, coal, and renewable energy sources (hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, wind, biomass, and other renewable resources). Projections produced by WEPS are published in the annual report, International Energy Outlook. This report documents the structure and procedures incorporated in the 1998 version of the WEPS model. It has been written to provide an overview of the structure of the system and technical details about the operation of each component of the model for persons who wish to know how WEPS projections are produced by EIA.

Using suggestion to model different types of automatic writing.

Science.gov (United States)

Walsh, E; Mehta, M A; Oakley, D A; Guilmette, D N; Gabay, A; Halligan, P W; Deeley, Q

2014-05-01

Our sense of self includes awareness of our thoughts and movements, and our control over them. This feeling can be altered or lost in neuropsychiatric disorders as well as in phenomena such as "automatic writing" whereby writing is attributed to an external source. Here, we employed suggestion in highly hypnotically suggestible participants to model various experiences of automatic writing during a sentence completion task. Results showed that the induction of hypnosis, without additional suggestion, was associated with a small but significant reduction of control, ownership, and awareness for writing. Targeted suggestions produced a double dissociation between thought and movement components of writing, for both feelings of control and ownership, and additionally, reduced awareness of writing. Overall, suggestion produced selective alterations in the control, ownership, and awareness of thought and motor components of writing, thus enabling key aspects of automatic writing, observed across different clinical and cultural settings, to be modelled. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Testing Software Development Project Productivity Model

Science.gov (United States)

Lipkin, Ilya

Software development is an increasingly influential factor in today's business environment, and a major issue affecting software development is how an organization estimates projects. If the organization underestimates cost, schedule, and quality requirements, the end results will not meet customer needs. On the other hand, if the organization overestimates these criteria, resources that could have been used more profitably will be wasted. There is no accurate model or measure available that can guide an organization in a quest for software development, with existing estimation models often underestimating software development efforts as much as 500 to 600 percent. To address this issue, existing models usually are calibrated using local data with a small sample size, with resulting estimates not offering improved cost analysis. This study presents a conceptual model for accurately estimating software development, based on an extensive literature review and theoretical analysis based on Sociotechnical Systems (STS) theory. The conceptual model serves as a solution to bridge organizational and technological factors and is validated using an empirical dataset provided by the DoD. Practical implications of this study allow for practitioners to concentrate on specific constructs of interest that provide the best value for the least amount of time. This study outlines key contributing constructs that are unique for Software Size E-SLOC, Man-hours Spent, and Quality of the Product, those constructs having the largest contribution to project productivity. This study discusses customer characteristics and provides a framework for a simplified project analysis for source selection evaluation and audit task reviews for the customers and suppliers. Theoretical contributions of this study provide an initial theory-based hypothesized project productivity model that can be used as a generic overall model across several application domains such as IT, Command and Control

K3 projective models in scrolls

CERN Document Server

Johnsen, Trygve

2004-01-01

The exposition studies projective models of K3 surfaces whose hyperplane sections are non-Clifford general curves. These models are contained in rational normal scrolls. The exposition supplements standard descriptions of models of general K3 surfaces in projective spaces of low dimension, and leads to a classification of K3 surfaces in projective spaces of dimension at most 10. The authors bring further the ideas in Saint-Donat's classical article from 1974, lifting results from canonical curves to K3 surfaces and incorporating much of the Brill-Noether theory of curves and theory of syzygies developed in the mean time.

Developing Project Duration Models in Software Engineering

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Pierre Bourque; Serge Oligny; Alain Abran; Bertrand Fournier

2007-01-01

Based on the empirical analysis of data contained in the International Software Benchmarking Standards Group(ISBSG) repository, this paper presents software engineering project duration models based on project effort. Duration models are built for the entire dataset and for subsets of projects developed for personal computer, mid-range and mainframeplatforms. Duration models are also constructed for projects requiring fewer than 400 person-hours of effort and for projectsre quiring more than 400 person-hours of effort. The usefulness of adding the maximum number of assigned resources as asecond independent variable to explain duration is also analyzed. The opportunity to build duration models directly fromproject functional size in function points is investigated as well.

Multi-Agent Modeling in Managing Six Sigma Projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Y. Chau

2009-10-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a multi-agent model is proposed for considering the human resources factor in decision making in relation to the six sigma project. The proposed multi-agent system is expected to increase the acccuracy of project prioritization and to stabilize the human resources service level. A simulation of the proposed multiagent model is conducted. The results show that a multi-agent model which takes into consideration human resources when making decisions about project selection and project team formation is important in enabling efficient and effective project management. The multi-agent modeling approach provides an alternative approach for improving communication and the autonomy of six sigma projects in business organizations.

The INTRACOIN model comparison project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lawson, G.

1982-01-01

The International Nuclide Transport Code Intercomparison (INTRACOIN) project is investigating the different models and associated computer codes describing the transport of radionuclides in flowing ground-water following the disposal of solid radioactive wastes in geologic formations. Level I of the project has shown good agreement in the numerical accuracy of most of the codes. In Level II the ability of the codes to model field experiments with radioactive tracers will be compared. Level III will show to what extent the adoption of different models and computer codes for the transport of radionuclides with ground water affects the results of repository assessments. (U.K.)

The Charlotte Action Research Project: A Model for Direct and Mutually Beneficial Community-University Engagement

Science.gov (United States)

Morrell, Elizabeth; Sorensen, Janni; Howarth, Joe

2015-01-01

This article describes the evolution of the Charlotte Action Research Project (CHARP), a community-university partnership founded in 2008 at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte, and focuses particularly on the program's unique organizational structure. Research findings of a project evaluation suggest that the CHARP model's unique…

A conceptual model of psychological contracts in construction projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yongjian Ke

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The strategic importance of relationship style contracting is recognised in the construction industry. Both public and private sector clients are stipulating more integrated and collaborative forms of procurement. Despite relationship and integrated contractual arrangement being available for some time, it is clear that construction firms have been slow to adopt them. Hence it is timely to examine how social exchanges, via unwritten agreement and behaviours, are being nurtured in construction projects. This paper adopted the concept of Psychological Contracts (PC to describe unwritten agreement and behaviours. A conceptual model of the PC is developed and validated using the results from a questionnaire survey administered to construction professionals in Australia. The results uncovered the relationships that existed amongst relational conditions and relational benefits, the PC and the partners’ satisfaction. The results show that all the hypotheses in the conceptual model of the PC are supported, suggesting the PC model is important and may have an effect on project performance and relationship quality among contracting parties. A validated model of the PC in construction was then developed based on the correlations among each component. The managerial implications are that past relationships and relationship characteristics should be taken into account in the selection of procurement partners and the promise of future resources, support and tangible relational outcomes are also vital. It is important for contracting parties to pay attention to unwritten agreements (the PC and behaviours when managing construction projects.

Cardiac cell modelling: Observations from the heart of the cardiac physiome project

KAUST Repository

Fink, Martin; Niederer, Steven A.; Cherry, Elizabeth M.; Fenton, Flavio H.; Koivumä ki, Jussi T.; Seemann, Gunnar; Thul, Rü diger; Zhang, Henggui; Sachse, Frank B.; Beard, Dan; Crampin, Edmund J.; Smith, Nicolas P.

2011-01-01

In this manuscript we review the state of cardiac cell modelling in the context of international initiatives such as the IUPS Physiome and Virtual Physiological Human Projects, which aim to integrate computational models across scales and physics. In particular we focus on the relationship between experimental data and model parameterisation across a range of model types and cellular physiological systems. Finally, in the context of parameter identification and model reuse within the Cardiac Physiome, we suggest some future priority areas for this field. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Sharks, Minnows, and Wheelbarrows: Calculus Modeling Projects

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Michael D.

2011-01-01

The purpose of this article is to present two very active applied modeling projects that were successfully implemented in a first semester calculus course at Hollins University. The first project uses a logistic equation to model the spread of a new disease such as swine flu. The second project is a human take on the popular article "Do Dogs Know…

Effects of climate model interdependency on the uncertainty quantification of extreme reinfall projections

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Madsen, H.; Rosbjerg, Dan

are independent. This study investigates the validity of this assumption and its effects on the estimated probabilistic projections of the changes in the 95% quantile of wet days. The methodology is divided in two main parts. First, the interdependency of the ENSEMBLES RCMs is estimated using the methodology...... developed by Pennell and Reichler (2011). The results show that the projections from the ENSEMBLES RCMs cannot be assumed independent. This result is then used to estimate the uncertainty in climate model projections. A Bayesian approach has been developed using the procedure suggested by Tebaldi et al...

Effects of climate model interdependency on the uncertainty quantification of extreme rainfall projections

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sunyer, M. A.; Rosbjerg, Dan; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

2017-01-01

are independent. This study investigates the validity of this assumption and its effects on the estimated probabilistic projections of the changes in the 95% quantile of wet days. The methodology is divided in two main parts. First, the interdependency of the ENSEMBLES RCMs is estimated using the methodology...... developed by Pennell and Reichler (2011). The results show that the projections from the ENSEMBLES RCMs cannot be assumed independent. This result is then used to estimate the uncertainty in climate model projections. A Bayesian approach has been developed using the procedure suggested by Tebaldi et al...

Models and theories of prescribing decisions: A review and suggested a new model.

Science.gov (United States)

Murshid, Mohsen Ali; Mohaidin, Zurina

2017-01-01

To date, research on the prescribing decisions of physician lacks sound theoretical foundations. In fact, drug prescribing by doctors is a complex phenomenon influenced by various factors. Most of the existing studies in the area of drug prescription explain the process of decision-making by physicians via the exploratory approach rather than theoretical. Therefore, this review is an attempt to suggest a value conceptual model that explains the theoretical linkages existing between marketing efforts, patient and pharmacist and physician decision to prescribe the drugs. The paper follows an inclusive review approach and applies the previous theoretical models of prescribing behaviour to identify the relational factors. More specifically, the report identifies and uses several valuable perspectives such as the 'persuasion theory - elaboration likelihood model', the stimuli-response marketing model', the 'agency theory', the theory of planned behaviour,' and 'social power theory,' in developing an innovative conceptual paradigm. Based on the combination of existing methods and previous models, this paper suggests a new conceptual model of the physician decision-making process. This unique model has the potential for use in further research.

Modeling Research Project Risks with Fuzzy Maps

Science.gov (United States)

Bodea, Constanta Nicoleta; Dascalu, Mariana Iuliana

2009-01-01

The authors propose a risks evaluation model for research projects. The model is based on fuzzy inference. The knowledge base for fuzzy process is built with a causal and cognitive map of risks. The map was especially developed for research projects, taken into account their typical lifecycle. The model was applied to an e-testing research…

EXPENSES FORECASTING MODEL IN UNIVERSITY PROJECTS PLANNING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sergei A. Arustamov

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The paper deals with mathematical model presentation of cash flows in project funding. We describe different types of expenses linked to university project activities. Problems of project budgeting that contribute most uncertainty have been revealed. As an example of the model implementation we consider calculation of vacation allowance expenses for project participants. We define problems of forecast for funds reservation: calculation based on methodology established by the Ministry of Education and Science calculation according to the vacation schedule and prediction of the most probable amount. A stochastic model for vacation allowance expenses has been developed. We have proposed methods and solution of the problems that increase the accuracy of forecasting for funds reservation based on 2015 data.

Divergent projections of future land use in the United States arising from different models and scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Sohl, Terry L.; Wimberly, Michael; Radeloff, Volker C.; Theobald, David M.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.

2016-01-01

A variety of land-use and land-cover (LULC) models operating at scales from local to global have been developed in recent years, including a number of models that provide spatially explicit, multi-class LULC projections for the conterminous United States. This diversity of modeling approaches raises the question: how consistent are their projections of future land use? We compared projections from six LULC modeling applications for the United States and assessed quantitative, spatial, and conceptual inconsistencies. Each set of projections provided multiple scenarios covering a period from roughly 2000 to 2050. Given the unique spatial, thematic, and temporal characteristics of each set of projections, individual projections were aggregated to a common set of basic, generalized LULC classes (i.e., cropland, pasture, forest, range, and urban) and summarized at the county level across the conterminous United States. We found very little agreement in projected future LULC trends and patterns among the different models. Variability among scenarios for a given model was generally lower than variability among different models, in terms of both trends in the amounts of basic LULC classes and their projected spatial patterns. Even when different models assessed the same purported scenario, model projections varied substantially. Projections of agricultural trends were often far above the maximum historical amounts, raising concerns about the realism of the projections. Comparisons among models were hindered by major discrepancies in categorical definitions, and suggest a need for standardization of historical LULC data sources. To capture a broader range of uncertainties, ensemble modeling approaches are also recommended. However, the vast inconsistencies among LULC models raise questions about the theoretical and conceptual underpinnings of current modeling approaches. Given the substantial effects that land-use change can have on ecological and societal processes, there

Wake models developed during the Wind Shadow project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Larsen, S.; Ott, S.; Pena, A.; Berg, J.; Nielsen, M.; Rathmann, O.; Joergensen, H.

2011-11-15

The Wind Shadow project has developed and validated improved models for determining the wakes losses, and thereby the array efficiency of very large, closely packed wind farms. The rationale behind the project has been that the existing software has been covering these types of wind farms poorly, both with respect to the densely packed turbines and the large fetches needed to describe the collective shadow effects of one farm to the next. Further the project has developed the necessary software for the use of the models. Guidelines with recommendations for the use of the models are included in the model deliverables. The project has been carried out as a collaborative project between Risoe DTU, DONG, Vattenfall, DNV and VESTAS, and it has been financed by energinet.dk grant no. 10086. (Author)

The Python Project: A Unique Model for Extending Research Opportunities to Undergraduate Students

Science.gov (United States)

Harvey, Pamela A.; Wall, Christopher; Luckey, Stephen W.; Langer, Stephen; Leinwand, Leslie A.

2014-01-01

Undergraduate science education curricula are traditionally composed of didactic instruction with a small number of laboratory courses that provide introductory training in research techniques. Research on learning methodologies suggests this model is relatively ineffective, whereas participation in independent research projects promotes enhanced…

The accuracy of matrix population model projections for coniferous trees in the Sierra Nevada, California

Science.gov (United States)

van Mantgem, P.J.; Stephenson, N.L.

2005-01-01

1 We assess the use of simple, size-based matrix population models for projecting population trends for six coniferous tree species in the Sierra Nevada, California. We used demographic data from 16 673 trees in 15 permanent plots to create 17 separate time-invariant, density-independent population projection models, and determined differences between trends projected from initial surveys with a 5-year interval and observed data during two subsequent 5-year time steps. 2 We detected departures from the assumptions of the matrix modelling approach in terms of strong growth autocorrelations. We also found evidence of observation errors for measurements of tree growth and, to a more limited degree, recruitment. Loglinear analysis provided evidence of significant temporal variation in demographic rates for only two of the 17 populations. 3 Total population sizes were strongly predicted by model projections, although population dynamics were dominated by carryover from the previous 5-year time step (i.e. there were few cases of recruitment or death). Fractional changes to overall population sizes were less well predicted. Compared with a null model and a simple demographic model lacking size structure, matrix model projections were better able to predict total population sizes, although the differences were not statistically significant. Matrix model projections were also able to predict short-term rates of survival, growth and recruitment. Mortality frequencies were not well predicted. 4 Our results suggest that simple size-structured models can accurately project future short-term changes for some tree populations. However, not all populations were well predicted and these simple models would probably become more inaccurate over longer projection intervals. The predictive ability of these models would also be limited by disturbance or other events that destabilize demographic rates. ?? 2005 British Ecological Society.

Financial and organizational models of NPP construction projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ivanov, Timur

2010-01-01

The recent evolution of financial and organizational models of NPP projects can be truly reputed to open a new page of the world market of NPP construction. The definition of the concrete model is based mostly on specific cooperation backgrounds and current terms and conditions under which the particular NPP project is being evolved. In this article the most commonly known strategies and schemes of financing structuring for export NPP construction projects are scrutinized. Special attention is paid to the analysis of BOO/BOT models which are based on the public-private partnership. Most BOO/BOT projects in the power sector has Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) as an integral part of them. The PPA key principles are studied here as well. The flexibility and adaptability of the public-private partnership models for financing and organization of the NPP projects contributes substantially to the competitiveness of the NPP projects especially under current economic conditions. (orig.)

Model county ordinance for wind projects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bain, D.A. [Oregon Office of Energy, Portland, OR (United States)

1997-12-31

Permitting is a crucial step in the development cycle of a wind project and permits affect the timing, cost, location, feasibility, layout, and impacts of wind projects. Counties often have the lead responsibility for permitting yet few have appropriate siting regulations for wind projects. A model ordinance allows a county to quickly adopt appropriate permitting procedures. The model county wind ordinance developed for use by northwest states is generally applicable across the country and counties seeking to adopt siting or zoning regulations for wind will find it a good starting place. The model includes permitting procedures for wind measurement devices and two types of wind systems. Both discretionary and nondiscretionary standards apply to wind systems and a conditional use permit would be issued. The standards, criteria, conditions for approval, and process procedures are defined for each. Adaptation examples for the four northwest states are provided along with a model Wind Resource Overlay Zone.

Models for assessment of public-private partnership projects in subsurface management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

И. С. Калгина

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Aims and goals of this paper. The article is devoted to analysis of issues related to development of public-private partnership (PPP projects in mineral resources sector of Russia. The special emphasis is given to the most common PPP model in the field of industrial infrastructure construction using the Investment Fund of RF. We offer specific tools to be used with Russian models for assessment of PPP projects and forecasting of its efficiency for its participants. This model allows evaluating the results of the whole deposit development process, constructing graphs of all types of expenditures and revenues (by years, and having rent assessment of deposit NPV (net present value and internal rent rate (IRR.Methods and results. The iteration process at each step enables assessment of budget revenue forecast, living standards indexes, ecological parameters and performance indicators, as well as a certain variant of PPP project implementation for investors (direct government expenses on implementation of infrastructure objects and environmental activities, tax benefits. We have a set of tools for supporting the management decision making process in developing efficient PPP mechanism, balancing long-term government interests, private sector and local people interests arising during socio-economic development of mineral resources area. This method using the suggested tools for analyzing efficiency of a specific partnership mechanism is shown on the examples of projects of developing different deposits in Transbaikal region.

Dealing with project complexity by matrix-based propagation modelling for project risk analysis

OpenAIRE

Fang , Chao; Marle , Franck

2012-01-01

International audience; Engineering projects are facing a growing complexity and are thus exposed to numerous and interdependent risks. In this paper, we present a quantitative method for modelling propagation behaviour in the project risk network. The construction of the network requires the involvement of the project manager and related experts using the Design Structure Matrix (DSM) method. A matrix-based risk propagation model is introduced to calculate risk propagation and thus to re-eva...

A Model of Project and Organisational Dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jenny Leonard

2012-04-01

Full Text Available The strategic, transformational nature of many information systems projects is now widely understood. Large-scale implementations of systems are known to require significant management of organisational change in order to be successful. Moreover, projects are rarely executed in isolation – most organisations have a large programme of projects being implemented at any one time. However, project and value management methodologies provide ad hoc definitions of the relationship between a project and its environment. This limits the ability of an organisation to manage the larger dynamics between projects and organisations, over time, and between projects. The contribution of this paper, therefore, is to use literature on organisational theory to provide a more systematic understanding of this area. The organisational facilitators required to obtain value from a project are categorised, and the processes required to develop those facilitators are defined. This formalisation facilitates generalisation between projects and highlights any time and path dependencies required in developing organisational facilitators. The model therefore has the potential to contribute to the development of IS project management theory within dynamic organisational contexts. Six cases illustrate how this model could be used.

Cloud radiative effects and changes simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models

Science.gov (United States)

Shin, Sun-Hee; Kim, Ok-Yeon; Kim, Dongmin; Lee, Myong-In

2017-07-01

Using 32 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models, this study examines the veracity in the simulation of cloud amount and their radiative effects (CREs) in the historical run driven by observed external radiative forcing for 1850-2005, and their future changes in the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 scenario runs for 2006-2100. Validation metrics for the historical run are designed to examine the accuracy in the representation of spatial patterns for climatological mean, and annual and interannual variations of clouds and CREs. The models show large spread in the simulation of cloud amounts, specifically in the low cloud amount. The observed relationship between cloud amount and the controlling large-scale environment are also reproduced diversely by various models. Based on the validation metrics, four models—ACCESS1.0, ACCESS1.3, HadGEM2-CC, and HadGEM2-ES—are selected as best models, and the average of the four models performs more skillfully than the multimodel ensemble average. All models project global-mean SST warming at the increase of the greenhouse gases, but the magnitude varies across the simulations between 1 and 2 K, which is largely attributable to the difference in the change of cloud amount and distribution. The models that simulate more SST warming show a greater increase in the net CRE due to reduced low cloud and increased incoming shortwave radiation, particularly over the regions of marine boundary layer in the subtropics. Selected best-performing models project a significant reduction in global-mean cloud amount of about -0.99% K-1 and net radiative warming of 0.46 W m-2 K-1, suggesting a role of positive feedback to global warming.

A functional-dynamic reflection on participatory processes in modeling projects.

Science.gov (United States)

Seidl, Roman

2015-12-01

The participation of nonscientists in modeling projects/studies is increasingly employed to fulfill different functions. However, it is not well investigated if and how explicitly these functions and the dynamics of a participatory process are reflected by modeling projects in particular. In this review study, I explore participatory modeling projects from a functional-dynamic process perspective. The main differences among projects relate to the functions of participation-most often, more than one per project can be identified, along with the degree of explicit reflection (i.e., awareness and anticipation) on the dynamic process perspective. Moreover, two main approaches are revealed: participatory modeling covering diverse approaches and companion modeling. It becomes apparent that the degree of reflection on the participatory process itself is not always explicit and perfectly visible in the descriptions of the modeling projects. Thus, the use of common protocols or templates is discussed to facilitate project planning, as well as the publication of project results. A generic template may help, not in providing details of a project or model development, but in explicitly reflecting on the participatory process. It can serve to systematize the particular project's approach to stakeholder collaboration, and thus quality management.

Models and theories of prescribing decisions: A review and suggested a new model

Science.gov (United States)

Mohaidin, Zurina

2017-01-01

To date, research on the prescribing decisions of physician lacks sound theoretical foundations. In fact, drug prescribing by doctors is a complex phenomenon influenced by various factors. Most of the existing studies in the area of drug prescription explain the process of decision-making by physicians via the exploratory approach rather than theoretical. Therefore, this review is an attempt to suggest a value conceptual model that explains the theoretical linkages existing between marketing efforts, patient and pharmacist and physician decision to prescribe the drugs. The paper follows an inclusive review approach and applies the previous theoretical models of prescribing behaviour to identify the relational factors. More specifically, the report identifies and uses several valuable perspectives such as the ‘persuasion theory - elaboration likelihood model’, the stimuli–response marketing model’, the ‘agency theory’, the theory of planned behaviour,’ and ‘social power theory,’ in developing an innovative conceptual paradigm. Based on the combination of existing methods and previous models, this paper suggests a new conceptual model of the physician decision-making process. This unique model has the potential for use in further research. PMID:28690701

Models and theories of prescribing decisions: A review and suggested a new model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Murshid M

2017-06-01

Full Text Available To date, research on the prescribing decisions of physician lacks sound theoretical foundations. In fact, drug prescribing by doctors is a complex phenomenon influenced by various factors. Most of the existing studies in the area of drug prescription explain the process of decision-making by physicians via the exploratory approach rather than theoretical. Therefore, this review is an attempt to suggest a value conceptual model that explains the theoretical linkages existing between marketing efforts, patient and pharmacist and physician decision to prescribe the drugs. The paper follows an inclusive review approach and applies the previous theoretical models of prescribing behaviour to identify the relational factors. More specifically, the report identifies and uses several valuable perspectives such as the ‘persuasion theory - elaboration likelihood model’, the stimuli–response marketing model’, the ‘agency theory’, the theory of planned behaviour,’ and ‘social power theory,’ in developing an innovative conceptual paradigm. Based on the combination of existing methods and previous models, this paper suggests a new conceptual model of the physician decision-making process. This unique model has the potential for use in further research.

Solid Waste Projection Model: Model user's guide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stiles, D.L.; Crow, V.L.

1990-08-01

The Solid Waste Projection Model (SWPM) system is an analytical tool developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford company (WHC) specifically to address solid waste management issues at the Hanford Central Waste Complex (HCWC). This document, one of six documents supporting the SWPM system, contains a description of the system and instructions for preparing to use SWPM and operating Version 1 of the model. 4 figs., 1 tab

Projecting surgeon supply using a dynamic model.

Science.gov (United States)

Fraher, Erin P; Knapton, Andy; Sheldon, George F; Meyer, Anthony; Ricketts, Thomas C

2013-05-01

To develop a projection model to forecast the head count and full-time equivalent supply of surgeons by age, sex, and specialty in the United States from 2009 to 2028. The search for the optimal number and specialty mix of surgeons to care for the United States population has taken on increased urgency under health care reform. Expanded insurance coverage and an aging population will increase demand for surgical and other medical services. Accurate forecasts of surgical service capacity are crucial to inform the federal government, training institutions, professional associations, and others charged with improving access to health care. The study uses a dynamic stock and flow model that simulates future changes in numbers and specialty type by factoring in changes in surgeon demographics and policy factors. : Forecasts show that overall surgeon supply will decrease 18% during the period form 2009 to 2028 with declines in all specialties except colorectal, pediatric, neurological surgery, and vascular surgery. Model simulations suggest that none of the proposed changes to increase graduate medical education currently under consideration will be sufficient to offset declines. The length of time it takes to train surgeons, the anticipated decrease in hours worked by surgeons in younger generations, and the potential decreases in graduate medical education funding suggest that there may be an insufficient surgeon workforce to meet population needs. Existing maldistribution patterns are likely to be exacerbated, leading to delayed or lost access to time-sensitive surgical procedures, particularly in rural areas.

PROJECT ACTIVITY ANALYSIS WITHOUT THE NETWORK MODEL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Munapo

2012-01-01

Full Text Available

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This paper presents a new procedure for analysing and managing activity sequences in projects. The new procedure determines critical activities, critical path, start times, free floats, crash limits, and other useful information without the use of the network model. Even though network models have been successfully used in project management so far, there are weaknesses associated with the use. A network is not easy to generate, and dummies that are usually associated with it make the network diagram complex – and dummy activities have no meaning in the original project management problem. The network model for projects can be avoided while still obtaining all the useful information that is required for project management. What are required are the activities, their accurate durations, and their predecessors.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die navorsing beskryf ’n nuwerwetse metode vir die ontleding en bestuur van die sekwensiële aktiwiteite van projekte. Die voorgestelde metode bepaal kritiese aktiwiteite, die kritieke pad, aanvangstye, speling, verhasing, en ander groothede sonder die gebruik van ’n netwerkmodel. Die metode funksioneer bevredigend in die praktyk, en omseil die administratiewe rompslomp van die tradisionele netwerkmodelle.

A proposed model for construction project management ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Keywords: Communication skills and leadership model, construction project ..... help a manager handle stress and break tension (Gido & Clements,. 2012: 331; Harrin .... production and management of projects, the higher the demand for.

Quantitative Decision Making Model for Carbon Reduction in Road Construction Projects Using Green Technologies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Woosik Jang

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Numerous countries have established policies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and have suggested goals pertaining to these reductions. To reach the target reduction amounts, studies on the reduction of carbon emissions have been conducted with regard to all stages and processes in construction projects. According to a study on carbon emissions, the carbon emissions generated during the construction stage of road projects account for approximately 76 to 86% of the total carbon emissions, far exceeding the other stages, such as maintenance or demolition. Therefore, this study aims to develop a quantitative decision making model that supports the application of green technologies (GTs to reduce carbon emissions during the construction stage of road construction projects. First, the authors selected environmental soundness, economic feasibility and constructability as the key assessment indices for evaluating 20 GTs. Second, a fuzzy set/qualitative comparative analysis (FS/QCA was used to establish an objective decision-making model for the assessment of both the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the key indices. To support the developed model, an expert survey was performed to assess the applicability of each GT from a practical perspective, which was verified with a case study using two additional GTs. The proposed model is expected to support practitioners in the application of suitable GTs to road projects and reduce carbon emissions, resulting in better decision making during road construction projects.

Worldwide transportation/energy demand, 1975-2000. Revised Variflex model projections

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ayres, R.U.; Ayres, L.W.

1980-03-01

The salient features of the transportation-energy relationships that characterize the world of 1975 are reviewed, and worldwide (34 countries) long-range transportation demand by mode to the year 2000 is reviewed. A worldwide model is used to estimate future energy demand for transportation. Projections made by the forecasting model indicate that in the year 2000, every region will be more dependent on petroleum for the transportation sector than it was in 1975. This report is intended to highlight certain trends and to suggest areas for further investigation. Forecast methodology and model output are described in detail in the appendices. The report is one of a series addressing transportation energy consumption; it supplants and replaces an earlier version published in October 1978 (ORNL/Sub-78/13536/1).

PROBLEMS OF VALUE-ORIENTED FORMATION OF PROJECT PRODUCT’S MODEL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Тигран Георгиевич ГРИГОРЯН

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Problems of formation of the project output model related to the complexity of information transmission in the communication between the project participants and stakeholders are considered. The concept of forming a project output model based on allocation of stages of model developing and specification and efficiency of the formation of a model that takes into account the need to plan the project output value creation and transferring to the sponsor and consumers is proposed.

Modelling of project cash flow on construction projects in Malang city

Science.gov (United States)

Djatmiko, Bambang

2017-09-01

Contractors usually prepare a project cash flow (PCF) on construction projects. The flow of cash in and cash out within a construction project may vary depending on the owner, contract documents, and construction service providers who have their own authority. Other factors affecting the PCF are down payment, termyn, progress schedule, material schedule, equipment schedule, manpower schedules, and wages of workers and subcontractors. This study aims to describe the cash inflow and cash outflow based on the empirical data obtained from contractors, develop a PCF model based on Halpen & Woodhead's PCF model, and investigate whether or not there is a significant difference between the Halpen & Woodhead's PCF model and the empirical PCF model. Based on the researcher's observation, the PCF management has never been implemented by the contractors in Malang in serving their clients (owners). The research setting is in Malang City because physical development in all field and there are many new construction service providers. The findings in this current study are summarised as follows: 1) Cash in included current assets (20%), owner's down payment (20%), termyin I (5%-25%), termyin II (20%), termyin III (25%), termyin IV (25%) and retention (5%). Cash out included direct cost (65%), indirect cost (20%), and profit + informal cost(15%), 2)the construction work involving the empirical PCF model in this study was started with the funds obtained from DP or current assets and 3) The two models bear several similarities in the upward trends of direct cost, indirect cost, Pro Ic, progress billing, and S-curve. The difference between the two models is the occurrence of overdraft in the Halpen and Woodhead's PCF model only.

Multi-model-based Access Control in Construction Projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frank Hilbert

2012-04-01

Full Text Available During the execution of large scale construction projects performed by Virtual Organizations (VO, relatively complex technical models have to be exchanged between the VO members. For linking the trade and transfer of these models, a so-called multi-model container format was developed. Considering the different skills and tasks of the involved partners, it is not necessary for them to know all the models in every technical detailing. Furthermore, the model size can lead to a delay in communication. In this paper an approach is presented for defining model cut-outs according to the current project context. Dynamic dependencies to the project context as well as static dependencies on the organizational structure are mapped in a context-sensitive rule. As a result, an approach for dynamic filtering of multi-models is obtained which ensures, together with a filtering service, that the involved VO members get a simplified view of complex multi-models as well as sufficient permissions depending on their tasks.

Finite detector based projection model for super resolution CT

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yu, Hengyong; Wang, Ge [Wake Forest Univ. Health Sciences, Winston-Salem, NC (United States). Dept. of Radiology; Virgina Tech, Blacksburg, VA (United States). Biomedical Imaging Div.

2011-07-01

For finite detector and focal spot sizes, here we propose a projection model for super resolution CT. First, for a given X-ray source point, a projection datum is modeled as an area integral over a narrow fan-beam connecting the detector elemental borders and the X-ray source point. Then, the final projection value is expressed as the integral obtained in the first step over the whole focal spot support. An ordered-subset simultaneous algebraic reconstruction technique (OS-SART) is developed using the proposed projection model. In the numerical simulation, our method produces super spatial resolution and suppresses high-frequency artifacts. (orig.)

Research on evaluation of enterprise project culture based on Denison model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yucheng Zeng

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to build enterprise project culture evaluation model and search for the best evaluation method for Chinese enterprise project culture on the basis of studying and drawing lessons from enterprise culture evaluation theory and method at home and abroad. Design/methodology/approach: Referring to the Denison enterprise culture evaluation model, this paper optimizes it according to the difference of enterprise project culture, designs the enterprise project culture evaluation model and proves the practicability of the model through empirical. Finding: This paper finds that it`s more applicable to use the Denison model for enterprise project culture evaluation through the comparative analysis of domestic and foreign enterprise culture evaluation theory and method, the systematic project culture management framework of Chinese enterprises has not yet formed through empirical research, and four factors in enterprise project culture have important influence on project operation performance improvement. Research limitations/implications: The research on evaluation of enterprise project culture based on Denison model is a preliminary attempt, the design of evaluation index system, evaluation model and scale structure also need to be improved, but the thinking of this paper in this field provides a valuable reference for future research. Practical Implications: This paper provides the support of theory and practice for evaluating the present situation of enterprise project culture construction and analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of project culture, which contributes to the "dialectical therapy" of enterprise project management, enterprise management and enterprise project culture construction. Originality/value: The main contribution of this paper is the introduction of Denison enterprise culture model. Combining with the actual situation of enterprises, this paper also builds the evaluation model for

Simple suggestions for including vertical physics in oil spill models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

D'Asaro, Eric; University of Washington, Seatle, WA

2001-01-01

Current models of oil spills include no vertical physics. They neglect the effect of vertical water motions on the transport and concentration of floating oil. Some simple ways to introduce vertical physics are suggested here. The major suggestion is to routinely measure the density stratification of the upper ocean during oil spills in order to develop a database on the effect of stratification. (Author)

DEVELOPMENT MODEL OF PATISSERIE PROJECT-BASED LEARNING

OpenAIRE

Ana Ana; Lutfhiyah Nurlaela

2013-01-01

The study aims to find a model of patisserie project-based learning with production approach that can improve effectiveness of patisserie learning. Delphi Technique, Cohen's Kappa and percentages of agreements were used to assess model of patisserie project based learning. Data collection techniques employed in the study were questionnaire, check list worksheet, observation, and interview sheets. Subjects were 13 lectures of expertise food and nutrition and 91 students of Food and Nutrition ...

Conceptual Models in Health Informatics Research: A Literature Review and Suggestions for Development.

Science.gov (United States)

Gray, Kathleen; Sockolow, Paulina

2016-02-24

Contributing to health informatics research means using conceptual models that are integrative and explain the research in terms of the two broad domains of health science and information science. However, it can be hard for novice health informatics researchers to find exemplars and guidelines in working with integrative conceptual models. The aim of this paper is to support the use of integrative conceptual models in research on information and communication technologies in the health sector, and to encourage discussion of these conceptual models in scholarly forums. A two-part method was used to summarize and structure ideas about how to work effectively with conceptual models in health informatics research that included (1) a selective review and summary of the literature of conceptual models; and (2) the construction of a step-by-step approach to developing a conceptual model. The seven-step methodology for developing conceptual models in health informatics research explained in this paper involves (1) acknowledging the limitations of health science and information science conceptual models; (2) giving a rationale for one's choice of integrative conceptual model; (3) explicating a conceptual model verbally and graphically; (4) seeking feedback about the conceptual model from stakeholders in both the health science and information science domains; (5) aligning a conceptual model with an appropriate research plan; (6) adapting a conceptual model in response to new knowledge over time; and (7) disseminating conceptual models in scholarly and scientific forums. Making explicit the conceptual model that underpins a health informatics research project can contribute to increasing the number of well-formed and strongly grounded health informatics research projects. This explication has distinct benefits for researchers in training, research teams, and researchers and practitioners in information, health, and other disciplines.

Modelling the Reduction of Project Making Duration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oleinik Pavel

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The article points out why earlier patterns of investment process were ineffective in developing the construction projects and shows sources for reducing of its total duration. It describes the procedure of statistical modeling and obtaining medium-term time parameters required for modern pattern of project-making; offers design formulas for assessment of total time required for project-making as well as for its main stages; reveals advantage of modern system of project-making against traditional one by comparing indicators of their duration.

Cash flow forecasting model for nuclear power projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Wei; Guo Jilin

2002-01-01

Cash flow forecasting is very important for owners and contractors of nuclear power projects to arrange the capital and to decrease the capital cost. The factors related to contractor cash flow forecasting are analyzed and a cash flow forecasting model is presented which is suitable for both contractors and owners. The model is efficiently solved using a cost-schedule data integration scheme described. A program is developed based on the model and verified with real project data. The result indicates that the model is efficient and effective

International collaborative fire modeling project (ICFMP). Summary of benchmark

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roewekamp, Marina; Klein-Hessling, Walter; Dreisbach, Jason; McGrattan, Kevin; Miles, Stewart; Plys, Martin; Riese, Olaf

2008-09-01

This document was developed in the frame of the 'International Collaborative Project to Evaluate Fire Models for Nuclear Power Plant Applications' (ICFMP). The objective of this collaborative project is to share the knowledge and resources of various organizations to evaluate and improve the state of the art of fire models for use in nuclear power plant fire safety, fire hazard analysis and fire risk assessment. The project is divided into two phases. The objective of the first phase is to evaluate the capabilities of current fire models for fire safety analysis in nuclear power plants. The second phase will extend the validation database of those models and implement beneficial improvements to the models that are identified in the first phase of ICFMP. In the first phase, more than 20 expert institutions from six countries were represented in the collaborative project. This Summary Report gives an overview on the results of the first phase of the international collaborative project. The main objective of the project was to evaluate the capability of fire models to analyze a variety of fire scenarios typical for nuclear power plants (NPP). The evaluation of the capability of fire models to analyze these scenarios was conducted through a series of in total five international Benchmark Exercises. Different types of models were used by the participating expert institutions from five countries. The technical information that will be useful for fire model users, developers and further experts is summarized in this document. More detailed information is provided in the corresponding technical reference documents for the ICFMP Benchmark Exercises No. 1 to 5. The objective of these exercises was not to compare the capabilities and strengths of specific models, address issues specific to a model, nor to recommend specific models over others. This document is not intended to provide guidance to users of fire models. Guidance on the use of fire models is currently being

Introduction to Financial Projection Models. Business Management Instructional Software.

Science.gov (United States)

Pomeroy, Robert W., III

This guidebook and teacher's guide accompany a personal computer software program and introduce the key elements of financial projection modeling to project the financial statements of an industrial enterprise. The student will then build a model on an electronic spreadsheet. The guidebook teaches the purpose of a financial model and the steps…

Baryogenesis model suggesting antigalaxies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirilova, D.P.

1998-12-01

A non-GUT baryogenesis model, according to which our Universe may contain clusters of antigalaxies is discussed. A mechanism of separation of vast quantities of matter from such of antimatter is described. The provided analysis showed that for a natural range of model parameters a sufficient separation between matter and antimatter regions, required from observational data, can be obtained. (author)

SR 97. Alternative models project. Stochastic continuum modelling of Aberg

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Widen, H.; Walker, D.

1999-08-01

As part of studies into the siting of a deep repository for nuclear waste, Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has commissioned the Alternative Models Project (AMP). The AMP is a comparison of three alternative modelling approaches to bedrock performance assessment for a single hypothetical repository, arbitrarily named Aberg. The Aberg repository will adopt input parameters from the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory in southern Sweden. The models are restricted to an explicit domain, boundary conditions and canister location to facilitate the comparison. The boundary conditions are based on the regional groundwater model provided in digital format. This study is the application of HYDRASTAR, a stochastic continuum groundwater flow and transport-modelling program. The study uses 34 realisations of 945 canister locations in the hypothetical repository to evaluate the uncertainty of the advective travel time, canister flux (Darcy velocity at a canister) and F-ratio. Several comparisons of variability are constructed between individual canister locations and individual realisations. For the ensemble of all realisations with all canister locations, the study found a median travel time of 27 years, a median canister flux of 7.1 x 10 -4 m/yr and a median F-ratio of 3.3 x 10 5 yr/m. The overall pattern of regional flow is preserved in the site-scale model, as is reflected in flow paths and exit locations. The site-scale model slightly over-predicts the boundary fluxes from the single realisation of the regional model. The explicitly prescribed domain was seen to be slightly restrictive, with 6% of the stream tubes failing to exit the upper surface of the model. Sensitivity analysis and calibration are suggested as possible extensions of the modelling study

The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

KAUST Repository

Kravitz, Ben

2011-01-31

To evaluate the effects of stratospheric geoengineering with sulphate aerosols, we propose standard forcing scenarios to be applied to multiple climate models to compare their results and determine the robustness of their responses. Thus far, different modeling groups have used different forcing scenarios for both global warming and geoengineering, complicating the comparison of results. We recommend four experiments to explore the extent to which geoengineering might offset climate change projected in some of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 experiments. These experiments focus on stratospheric aerosols, but future experiments under this framework may focus on different means of geoengineering. © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society.

Technology Investments in the NASA Entry Systems Modeling Project

Science.gov (United States)

Barnhardt, Michael; Wright, Michael; Hughes, Monica

2017-01-01

The Entry Systems Modeling (ESM) technology development project, initiated in 2012 under NASAs Game Changing Development (GCD) Program, is engaged in maturation of fundamental research developing aerosciences, materials, and integrated systems products for entry, descent, and landing(EDL)technologies [1]. To date, the ESM project has published over 200 papers in these areas, comprising the bulk of NASAs research program for EDL modeling. This presentation will provide an overview of the projects successes and challenges, and an assessment of future investments in EDL modeling and simulation relevant to NASAs mission

Streamline Your Project: A Lifecycle Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Viren, John

2000-01-01

Discusses one approach to project organization providing a baseline lifecycle model for multimedia/CBT development. This variation of the standard four-phase model of Analysis, Design, Development, and Implementation includes a Pre-Analysis phase, called Definition, and a Post-Implementation phase, known as Maintenance. Each phase is described.…

Model suggests potential for Porites coral population recovery after removal of anthropogenic disturbance (Luhuitou, Hainan, South China Sea).

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Meixia; Riegl, Bernhard; Yu, Kefu; Shi, Qi; Zhang, Qiaomin; Liu, Guohui; Yang, Hongqiang; Yan, Hongqiang

2016-09-13

Population models are important for resource management and can inform about potential trajectories useful for planning purposes, even with incomplete monitoring data. From size frequency data on Luhuitou fringing reef, Hainan, South China Sea, a matrix population model of massive corals (Porites lutea) was developed and trajectories over 100 years under no disturbance and random disturbances were projected. The model reflects a largely open population of Porites lutea, with low local recruitment and preponderance of imported recruitment. Under no further disturbance, the population of Porites lutea will grow and its size structure will change from predominance of small size classes to large size classes. Therewith, total Porites cover will increase. Even under random disturbances every 10 to 20 years, the Porites population could remain viable, albeit at lower space cover. The models suggest recovery at Luhuitou following the removal of chronic anthropogenic disturbance. Extending the area of coral reef reserves to protect the open coral community and the path of connectivity is advisable and imperative for the conservation of Hainan's coral reefs.

Model suggests potential for Porites coral population recovery after removal of anthropogenic disturbance (Luhuitou, Hainan, South China Sea)

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Meixia; Riegl, Bernhard; Yu, Kefu; Shi, Qi; Zhang, Qiaomin; Liu, Guohui; Yang, Hongqiang; Yan, Hongqiang

2016-09-01

Population models are important for resource management and can inform about potential trajectories useful for planning purposes, even with incomplete monitoring data. From size frequency data on Luhuitou fringing reef, Hainan, South China Sea, a matrix population model of massive corals (Porites lutea) was developed and trajectories over 100 years under no disturbance and random disturbances were projected. The model reflects a largely open population of Porites lutea, with low local recruitment and preponderance of imported recruitment. Under no further disturbance, the population of Porites lutea will grow and its size structure will change from predominance of small size classes to large size classes. Therewith, total Porites cover will increase. Even under random disturbances every 10 to 20 years, the Porites population could remain viable, albeit at lower space cover. The models suggest recovery at Luhuitou following the removal of chronic anthropogenic disturbance. Extending the area of coral reef reserves to protect the open coral community and the path of connectivity is advisable and imperative for the conservation of Hainan’s coral reefs.

The performance indicators of model projects. A special evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-11-01

As a result of the acknowledgment of the key role of the Model Project concept in the Agency's Technical Co-operation Programme, the present review of the objectives of the model projects which are now in operation, was undertaken, as recommended by the Board of Governors, to determine at an early stage: the extent to which the present objectives have been defined in a measurable way; whether objectively verifiable performance indicators and success criteria had been identified for each project; whether mechanisms to obtain feedback on the achievements had been foreseen. The overall budget for the 23 model projects, as approved from 1994 to 1998, amounts to $32,557,560, of which 45% is funded by Technical Co-operation Fund. This represents an average investment of about $8 million per year, that is over 15% of the annual TC budget. The conceptual importance of the Model Project initiative, as well as the significant funds allocated to them, led the Secretariat to plan the methods to be used to determine their socio-economic impact. 1 tab

A model of the environmental impacts of hydropower projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kemppainen, T.; Haemaelaeinen, I.

1992-01-01

The aim was to create a model of the effects of hydropower modernization and extension projects in Finland. To illustrate the effects of hydropower projects a checklist in the form of matrice was constructed. In this matrice all issues that could be significant in future hydropower projects were collected. Stable physical environmental changes are the starting-point for this matrice. The temporary change of hydropower constructions have also been under consideration. These are mainly environmental changes during construction. In chapter two the effects of hydropower modernization and extension projects physical environmental changes were examined. In chapter three the matrice was applied to some example cases. The cases were chosen to represent future hydropower projects. In addition these example cases represent urban areas, rural areas and uninhabited areas. The example cases were the extension of Tainionkoski hydropower plant at Vuoksi river, the modernization of Aeetsae power plant at Kokemaeenjoki river, the modernization of Stadsfors power plant at Lapuanjoki river in the centre of Uusikaarlepyy town and the construction of Kaitfors power plant at Perhonjoki river. Conclusions from usability of the model can be drawn on the ground of the example cases. The purpose of the model is to produce a checklist of estimated environmental effects in hydropower project of various kinds. Examination of issues within the model depends on local circumstances. Endangered animal and plant species, for example, can be studied and estimated only if endangered animal and plant species exist in the area of hydropower plant. Furthermore, the direction and extent of environmental effects depend on the local circumstances. The model is mainly a checklist of environmental effects caused by hydropower plant projects

Modelling in Evaluating a Working Life Project in Higher Education

Science.gov (United States)

Sarja, Anneli; Janhonen, Sirpa; Havukainen, Pirjo; Vesterinen, Anne

2012-01-01

This article describes an evaluation method based on collaboration between the higher education, a care home and university, in a R&D project. The aim of the project was to elaborate modelling as a tool of developmental evaluation for innovation and competence in project cooperation. The approach was based on activity theory. Modelling enabled a…

Linking models of human behaviour and climate alters projected climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Beckage, Brian; Gross, Louis J.; Lacasse, Katherine; Carr, Eric; Metcalf, Sara S.; Winter, Jonathan M.; Howe, Peter D.; Fefferman, Nina; Franck, Travis; Zia, Asim; Kinzig, Ann; Hoffman, Forrest M.

2018-01-01

Although not considered in climate models, perceived risk stemming from extreme climate events may induce behavioural changes that alter greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we link the C-ROADS climate model to a social model of behavioural change to examine how interactions between perceived risk and emissions behaviour influence projected climate change. Our coupled climate and social model resulted in a global temperature change ranging from 3.4-6.2 °C by 2100 compared with 4.9 °C for the C-ROADS model alone, and led to behavioural uncertainty that was of a similar magnitude to physical uncertainty (2.8 °C versus 3.5 °C). Model components with the largest influence on temperature were the functional form of response to extreme events, interaction of perceived behavioural control with perceived social norms, and behaviours leading to sustained emissions reductions. Our results suggest that policies emphasizing the appropriate attribution of extreme events to climate change and infrastructural mitigation may reduce climate change the most.

Myanmar Model Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Le Heron, John

1998-01-01

The National Radiation Laboratory was approached by the IAEA in 1997 to provide assistance to the government of Myanmar, as part of the Model Project, in setting up an appropriate regulatory framework for radiation protection. To this end John Le Heron spent 3 weeks in late 1997 based at the Atomic Energy Department of the Ministry of Science and Technology, Yangon, assessing the existing legal framework, assisting with the review and design of the legal framework for consistency with the Basic Safety Standards, and assisting in the preparation of a system of notification, authorisation and inspection of radiation practices. (author)

The PASS project architectural model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Day, C.T.; Loken, S.; Macfarlane, J.F.

1994-01-01

The PASS project has as its goal the implementation of solutions to the foreseen data access problems of the next generation of scientific experiments. The architectural model results from an evaluation of the operational and technical requirements and is described in terms of an abstract reference model, an implementation model and a discussion of some design aspects. The abstract reference model describes a system that matches the requirements in terms of its components and the mechanisms by which they communicate, but does not discuss policy or design issues that would be necessary to match the model to an actual implementation. Some of these issues are discussed, but more detailed design and simulation work will be necessary before choices can be made

Development of a funding, cost, and spending model for satellite projects

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Jesse P.

1989-01-01

The need for a predictive budget/funging model is obvious. The current models used by the Resource Analysis Office (RAO) are used to predict the total costs of satellite projects. An effort to extend the modeling capabilities from total budget analysis to total budget and budget outlays over time analysis was conducted. A statistical based and data driven methodology was used to derive and develop the model. Th budget data for the last 18 GSFC-sponsored satellite projects were analyzed and used to build a funding model which would describe the historical spending patterns. This raw data consisted of dollars spent in that specific year and their 1989 dollar equivalent. This data was converted to the standard format used by the RAO group and placed in a database. A simple statistical analysis was performed to calculate the gross statistics associated with project length and project cost ant the conditional statistics on project length and project cost. The modeling approach used is derived form the theory of embedded statistics which states that properly analyzed data will produce the underlying generating function. The process of funding large scale projects over extended periods of time is described by Life Cycle Cost Models (LCCM). The data was analyzed to find a model in the generic form of a LCCM. The model developed is based on a Weibull function whose parameters are found by both nonlinear optimization and nonlinear regression. In order to use this model it is necessary to transform the problem from a dollar/time space to a percentage of total budget/time space. This transformation is equivalent to moving to a probability space. By using the basic rules of probability, the validity of both the optimization and the regression steps are insured. This statistically significant model is then integrated and inverted. The resulting output represents a project schedule which relates the amount of money spent to the percentage of project completion.

Project Management in Public Administration. TPM – Total Project Management Maturity Model. The Case of Slovenian Public Administration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gordana ŽURGA

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The purpose of the article is to present the importance of project management for the functioning of public administration, and its contribution to the realization of the developmental goals of the government. For this, integration of strategic management and project management is of vital importance. The methodology used is a combination of literature review, a case study of project management in public administration of the Republic of Slovenia, and development of a maturity model of project management in public administration, with its verifi cation on the case of Slovenia. The main contribution of the study is development of TPM – Total Project Management maturity model for public administration. Upon the TPM maturity model, project management in Slovene public administration is assessed and discussed. Out of fi ve maturity levels, the results for project management in Slovene public administration are: management of projects – level 2 (initiated, management of programs of projects – level 2 (initiated, management of portfolios of projects – level 3 (implemented, organizational support for project management – level 3 (implemented, HRM for project management – level 2 (initiated, and integration of project management and strategic management – level 3 (implemented. General fi ndings and recommendations in this respect are drawn, together with indicated areas for possible further research and investigation.

Projected changes in precipitation intensity and frequency over complex topography: a multi-model perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, Andreas; Keller, Denise; Liniger, Mark; Rajczak, Jan; Schär, Christoph; Appenzeller, Christof

2014-05-01

Fundamental changes in the hydrological cycle are expected in a future warmer climate. This is of particular relevance for the Alpine region, as a source and reservoir of several major rivers in Europe and being prone to extreme events such as floodings. For this region, climate change assessments based on the ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) project a significant decrease in summer mean precipitation under the A1B emission scenario by the mid-to-end of this century, while winter mean precipitation is expected to slightly rise. From an impact perspective, projected changes in seasonal means, however, are often insufficient to adequately address the multifaceted challenges of climate change adaptation. In this study, we revisit the full matrix of the ENSEMBLES RCM projections regarding changes in frequency and intensity, precipitation-type (convective versus stratiform) and temporal structure (wet/dry spells and transition probabilities) over Switzerland and surroundings. As proxies for raintype changes, we rely on the model parameterized convective and large-scale precipitation components. Part of the analysis involves a Bayesian multi-model combination algorithm to infer changes from the multi-model ensemble. The analysis suggests a summer drying that evolves altitude-specific: over low-land regions it is associated with wet-day frequency decreases of convective and large-scale precipitation, while over elevated regions it is primarily associated with a decline in large-scale precipitation only. As a consequence, almost all the models project an increase in the convective fraction at elevated Alpine altitudes. The decrease in the number of wet days during summer is accompanied by decreases (increases) in multi-day wet (dry) spells. This shift in multi-day episodes also lowers the likelihood of short dry spell occurrence in all of the models. For spring and autumn the combined multi-model projections indicate higher mean precipitation intensity north of the

Risk Assessment of Engineering Project Financing Based on PPP Model

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Ma Qiuli

2017-01-01

Full Text Available At present, the project financing channel is single, and the urban facilities are in short supply, and the risk assessment and prevention mechanism of financing should be further improved to reduce the risk of project financing. In view of this, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of project financing risk which combined the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and analytic hierarchy process is established. The scientificalness and effectiveness of the model are verified by the example of the world port project in Luohe city, and it provides basis and reference for engineering project financing based on PPP mode.

COGNITIVE MODELING AS A METHOD OF QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS OF IT PROJECTS

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Інна Ігорівна ОНИЩЕНКО

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The example project implementing automated CRM-system demonstrated the possibility and features of cognitive modeling in the qualitative analysis of project risks to determine their additional features. Proposed construction of cognitive models of project risks in information technology within the qualitative risk analysis, additional assessments as a method of ranking risk to characterize the relationship between them. The proposed cognitive model reflecting the relationship between the risk of IT project to assess the negative and the positive impact of certain risks for the remaining risks of project implementation of the automated CRM-system. The ability to influence the risk of a fact of other project risks can increase the priority of risk with low impact on results due to its relationship with other project risks.

Projections of West African summer monsoon rainfall extremes from two CORDEX models

Science.gov (United States)

Akinsanola, A. A.; Zhou, Wen

2018-05-01

Global warming has a profound impact on the vulnerable environment of West Africa; hence, robust climate projection, especially of rainfall extremes, is quite important. Based on two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, projected changes in extreme summer rainfall events over West Africa were investigated using data from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment models. Eight (8) extreme rainfall indices (CDD, CWD, r10mm, r20mm, PRCPTOT, R95pTOT, rx5day, and sdii) defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were used in the study. The performance of the regional climate model (RCM) simulations was validated by comparing with GPCP and TRMM observation data sets. Results show that the RCMs reasonably reproduced the observed pattern of extreme rainfall over the region and further added significant value to the driven GCMs over some grids. Compared to the baseline period 1976-2005, future changes (2070-2099) in summer rainfall extremes under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios show statistically significant decreasing total rainfall (PRCPTOT), while consecutive dry days and extreme rainfall events (R95pTOT) are projected to increase significantly. There are obvious indications that simple rainfall intensity (sdii) will increase in the future. This does not amount to an increase in total rainfall but suggests a likelihood of greater intensity of rainfall events. Overall, our results project that West Africa may suffer more natural disasters such as droughts and floods in the future.

Large-Scale Features of Pliocene Climate: Results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project

Science.gov (United States)

Haywood, A. M.; Hill, D.J.; Dolan, A. M.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Bragg, F.; Chan, W.-L.; Chandler, M. A.; Contoux, C.; Dowsett, H. J.; Jost, A.;

Process simulation and parametric modeling for strategic project management

CERN Document Server

Morales, Peter J

2013-01-01

Process Simulation and Parametric Modeling for Strategic Project Management will offer CIOs, CTOs and Software Development Managers, IT Graduate Students an introduction to a set of technologies that will help them understand how to better plan software development projects, manage risk and have better insight into the complexities of the software development process.A novel methodology will be introduced that allows a software development manager to better plan and access risks in the early planning of a project.  By providing a better model for early software development estimation and softw

Modelling of Arabidopsis LAX3 expression suggests auxin homeostasis.

Science.gov (United States)

Mellor, Nathan; Péret, Benjamin; Porco, Silvana; Sairanen, Ilkka; Ljung, Karin; Bennett, Malcolm; King, John

2015-02-07

Emergence of new lateral roots from within the primary root in Arabidopsis has been shown to be regulated by the phytohormone auxin, via the expression of the auxin influx carrier LAX3, mediated by the ARF7/19 IAA14 signalling module (Swarup et al., 2008). A single cell model of the LAX3 and IAA14 auxin response was formulated and used to demonstrate that hysteresis and bistability may explain the experimentally observed 'all-or-nothing' LAX3 spatial expression pattern in cortical cells containing a gradient of auxin concentrations. The model was tested further by using a parameter fitting algorithm to match model output with qRT-PCR mRNA expression data following exogenous auxin treatment. It was found that the model is able to show good agreement with the data, but only when the exogenous auxin signal is degraded over time, at a rate higher than that measured in the experimental medium, suggesting the triggering of an endogenous auxin homeostasis mechanism. Testing the model over a more physiologically relevant range of extracellular auxin shows bistability and hysteresis still occur when using the optimised parameters, providing the rate of LAX3 active auxin transport is sufficiently high relative to passive diffusion. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

MODEL OF INTEGRATED VALUE OF PROJECTS IN THE FIELD OF ALTERNATIVE ENERGY

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Наталія Ігорівна БОРИСОВА

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Development of alternative energy sources requires the implementation of complex problems, the solution of which is necessary to apply the project approach. The uniqueness of alternative energy projects (AEP necessitates individual approach to evaluating the effectiveness of each. The paper contains the results of the project management features's analysis in the field of alternative energy, determining the values and developing of the value management integrated conceptual model of AEP. In assessing the effectiveness of AEP considered the socio-economic and commercial aspects. Value management integrated conceptual model of AEP was obtained by combining the classical model of the project management goals with the project values model "Five "E" and two "A". The classical model of the project management goals have been complemented with risk parameters.

Quark shell model using projection operators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ullah, N.

1988-01-01

Using the projection operators in the quark shell model, the wave functions for proton are calculated and expressions for calculating the wave function of neutron and also magnetic moment of proton and neutron are derived. (M.G.B.)

The Lunar Phases Project: A Mental Model-Based Observational Project for Undergraduate Nonscience Majors

Science.gov (United States)

Meyer, Angela Osterman; Mon, Manuel J.; Hibbard, Susan T.

2011-01-01

We present our Lunar Phases Project, an ongoing effort utilizing students' actual observations within a mental model building framework to improve student understanding of the causes and process of the lunar phases. We implement this project with a sample of undergraduate, nonscience major students enrolled in a midsized public university located…

Project M: Scale Model of Lunar Landing Site of Apollo 17

Science.gov (United States)

O'Brien, Hollie; Crain, Timothy P.

2010-01-01

The basis of the project was creating a scale model representation of the Apollo 17 lunar landing site. Vital components included surface slope characteristics, crater sizes and locations, prominent rocks, and lighting conditions. The model was made for Project M support when evaluating approach and terminal descent as well as when planning surface operations with respect to the terrain. The project had five main mi lestones during the length of the project. The first was examining the best method to use to re-create the Apollo 17 landing site and then reviewing research fmdings with Dr. Tim Crain and EO staff which occurred on June 25, 2010 at a meeting. The second step was formulating a construction plan, budget, and schedule and then presenting the plan for authority to proceed which occurred on July 6,2010. The third part was building a prototype to test materials and building processes which were completed by July 13, 2010. Next was assembling the landing site model and presenting a mid-term construction status report on July 29, 2010. The fifth and final milestone was demonstrating the model and presenting an exit pitch which happened on August 4, 2010. The project was very technical: it needed a lot of research about moon topography, lighting conditions and angles of the sun on the moon, Apollo 17, and Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT), before starting the actual building process. This required using Spreadsheets, searching internet sources and conducting personal meetings with project representatives. This information assisted the interns in deciding the scale of the model with respect to cracks, craters and rocks and their relative sizes as the objects mentioned could interfere with any of the Lunar Landers: Apollo, Project M and future Landers. The project concluded with the completion of a three dimensional scale model of the Apollo 17 Lunar landing site. This model assists Project M members because they can now visualize

Musculoskeletal Modelling and the Physiome Project

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fernandez, Justin; Zhang, Ju; Shim, Vickie; Munro, Jacob T.; Sartori, Massimo; Besier, Thor; Lloyd, David G.; Nickerson, David P.; Hunter, Peter; Pivonka, Peter

2018-01-01

This chapter presents developments as part of the International Union of Physiological Sciences (IUPS) Physiome Project. Models are multiscale, multispatial and multiphysics, hence, suitable numerical tools and platforms have been developed to address these challenges for the musculoskeletal system.

Solid Waste Projection Model: Database (Version 1.4)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blackburn, C.; Cillan, T.

1993-09-01

The Solid Waste Projection Model (SWPM) system is an analytical tool developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC). The SWPM system provides a modeling and analysis environment that supports decisions in the process of evaluating various solid waste management alternatives. This document, one of a series describing the SWPM system, contains detailed information regarding the software and data structures utilized in developing the SWPM Version 1.4 Database. This document is intended for use by experienced database specialists and supports database maintenance, utility development, and database enhancement. Those interested in using the SWPM database should refer to the SWPM Database User's Guide. This document is available from the PNL Task M Project Manager (D. L. Stiles, 509-372-4358), the PNL Task L Project Manager (L. L. Armacost, 509-372-4304), the WHC Restoration Projects Section Manager (509-372-1443), or the WHC Waste Characterization Manager (509-372-1193)

Integrating semantic data models with project management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wachter, R

1982-01-01

Summary form only given, as follows. The development of a data model for a project on the test and certification of computer-based information systems required a more expressive data model than that supplied by either the network, hierarchical or relational models. A data model was developed to describe the work environment and the work itself. This model is based on the entity-relationship data model of Chen and on heuristic principles of knowledge organisation used in artificial intelligence. The ER data model is reviewed and the extensions to the model are discussed.

A CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR IMPROVED PROJECT SELECTION AND PRIORITISATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. J. Viljoen

2012-01-01

Full Text Available

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Project portfolio management processes are often designed and operated as a series of stages (or project phases and gates. However, the flow of such a process is often slow, characterised by queues waiting for a gate decision and by repeated work from previous stages waiting for additional information or for re-processing. In this paper the authors propose a conceptual model that applies supply chain and constraint management principles to the project portfolio management process. An advantage of the proposed model is that it provides the ability to select and prioritise projects without undue changes to project schedules. This should result in faster flow through the system.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Prosesse om portefeuljes van projekte te bestuur word normaalweg ontwerp en bedryf as ’n reeks fases en hekke. Die vloei deur so ’n proses is dikwels stadig en word gekenmerk deur toue wat wag vir besluite by die hekke en ook deur herwerk van vorige fases wat wag vir verdere inligting of vir herprosessering. In hierdie artikel word ‘n konseptuele model voorgestel. Die model berus op die beginsels van voorsieningskettings sowel as van beperkingsbestuur, en bied die voordeel dat projekte geselekteer en geprioritiseer kan word sonder onnodige veranderinge aan projekskedules. Dit behoort te lei tot versnelde vloei deur die stelsel.

Project Management Life Cycle Models to Improve Management in High-rise Construction

Science.gov (United States)

Burmistrov, Andrey; Siniavina, Maria; Iliashenko, Oksana

2018-03-01

The paper describes a possibility to improve project management in high-rise buildings construction through the use of various Project Management Life Cycle Models (PMLC models) based on traditional and agile project management approaches. Moreover, the paper describes, how the split the whole large-scale project to the "project chain" will create the factor for better manageability of the large-scale buildings project and increase the efficiency of the activities of all participants in such projects.

Project Management Life Cycle Models to Improve Management in High-rise Construction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Burmistrov Andrey

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The paper describes a possibility to improve project management in high-rise buildings construction through the use of various Project Management Life Cycle Models (PMLC models based on traditional and agile project management approaches. Moreover, the paper describes, how the split the whole large-scale project to the "project chain" will create the factor for better manageability of the large-scale buildings project and increase the efficiency of the activities of all participants in such projects.

Modeling Manpower and Equipment Productivity in Tall Building Construction Projects

Science.gov (United States)

Mudumbai Krishnaswamy, Parthasarathy; Rajiah, Murugasan; Vasan, Ramya

2017-12-01

Tall building construction projects involve two critical resources of manpower and equipment. Their usage, however, widely varies due to several factors affecting their productivity. Currently, no systematic study for estimating and increasing their productivity is available. What is prevalent is the use of empirical data, experience of similar projects and assumptions. As tall building projects are here to stay and increase, to meet the emerging demands in ever shrinking urban spaces, it is imperative to explore ways and means of scientific productivity models for basic construction activities: concrete, reinforcement, formwork, block work and plastering for the input of specific resources in a mixed environment of manpower and equipment usage. Data pertaining to 72 tall building projects in India were collected and analyzed. Then, suitable productivity estimation models were developed using multiple linear regression analysis and validated using independent field data. It is hoped that the models developed in the study will be useful for quantity surveyors, cost engineers and project managers to estimate productivity of resources in tall building projects.

Status of the ground water flow model for the UMTRA Project, Shiprock, New Mexico, site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-01-01

A two-dimensional numerical model was constructed for the alluvial aquifer in the area of the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project Shiprock, New Mexico, site. This model was used to investigate the effects of various hydrologic parameters on the evolution of the ground water flow field. Results of the model are useful for defining uncertainties in the site conceptual model and suggesting data collection efforts to reduce these uncertainties. The computer code MODFLOW was used to simulate the two-dimensional flow of ground water in the alluvium. The escarpment was represented as a no-flow boundary. The San Juan River was represented with the MODFLOW river package. A uniform hydraulic conductivity distribution with the value estimated by the UMTRA Project Technical Assistance Contractor (TAC) and a uniform recharge distribution was used. Infiltration from the flowing artesian well was represented using the well package. The ground water flow model was calibrated to ground water levels observed in April 1993. Inspection of hydrographs shows that these levels are representative of typical conditions at the site

Improving Project Management Using Formal Models and Architectures

Science.gov (United States)

Kahn, Theodore; Sturken, Ian

2011-01-01

This talk discusses the advantages formal modeling and architecture brings to project management. These emerging technologies have both great potential and challenges for improving information available for decision-making. The presentation covers standards, tools and cultural issues needing consideration, and includes lessons learned from projects the presenters have worked on.

A maturation model for project-based organisations – with uncertainty management as an always remaining multi-project management focus

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna Jerbrant

2014-02-01

Full Text Available The classical view of multi-project management does not capture its dynamic nature. Present theory falls short in the expositive dimension of how management of project-based companies evolves because of their need to be agile and adaptable to a changing environment. The purpose of this paper is therefore to present a descriptive model that elucidates the maturation processes in a project-based organization as well as to give an enhanced understanding of multi-project management in practice. The maturation model displays how the management of project-based organizations evolves between structuring administration and managing any uncertainty, and emphasizes the importance of active individual actions and situated management actions that haveto be undertaken in order to coordinate, synchronize, and communicate the required knowledge and skills.The outcomes primarily reveal that, although standardized project models are used and considerable resources are spent on effective project portfolio management, how information and communication are executedis essential for the management of project-based organizations. This is particularly true for informal and non-codified communication.

R&D Project Valuation Considering Changes of Economic Environment: A Case of a Pharmaceutical R&D Project

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Jung Ho Park

2018-03-01

Full Text Available R&D project valuation is important for effective R&D portfolio management through decision making, related to the firm’s R&D productivity, sustainable management. In particular, scholars have emphasized the necessities of capturing option value in R&D and developed methods of real option valuation. However, despite suggesting various real option models, there are few studies on simultaneously employing mean-reverting stochastic process and Markov regime switching to describe the evolution of cash flow and to reflect time-varying parameters resulting from changes of economic environment. Therefore, we suggest a mean-reverting binomial lattice model under Markov regime switching and apply it to evaluate clinical development with project cases of the pharmaceutical industry. This study finds that decision making can be different according to the regime condition, thus the suggested model can capture risks caused by the uncertainty of the economic environment, represented by regime switching. Further, this study simulates the model according to rate parameter from 0.00 to 1.00 and risk-free interest rates for regimes 1 and 2 from ( r 1 = 4%, r 2 = 2% to ( r 1 = 7%, r 2 = 5%, and confirms the rigidity of the model. Therefore, in practice, the mean-reverting binomial lattice model under Markov regime switching proposed in this study for R&D project valuation contributes to assisting company R&D project managers make effective decision making considering current economic environment and future changes.

The Chancellor's Model School Project (CMSP)

Science.gov (United States)

Lopez, Gil

1999-01-01

What does it take to create and implement a 7th to 8th grade middle school program where the great majority of students achieve at high academic levels regardless of their previous elementary school backgrounds? This was the major question that guided the research and development of a 7-year long project effort entitled the Chancellor's Model School Project (CMSP) from September 1991 to August 1998. The CMSP effort conducted largely in two New York City public schools was aimed at creating and testing a prototype 7th and 8th grade model program that was organized and test-implemented in two distinct project phases: Phase I of the CMSP effort was conducted from 1991 to 1995 as a 7th to 8th grade extension of an existing K-6 elementary school, and Phase II was conducted from 1995 to 1998 as a 7th to 8th grade middle school program that became an integral part of a newly established 7-12th grade high school. In Phase I, the CMSP demonstrated that with a highly structured curriculum coupled with strong academic support and increased learning time, students participating in the CMSP were able to develop a strong foundation for rigorous high school coursework within the space of 2 years (at the 7th and 8th grades). Mathematics and Reading test score data during Phase I of the project, clearly indicated that significant academic gains were obtained by almost all students -- at both the high and low ends of the spectrum -- regardless of their previous academic performance in the K-6 elementary school experience. The CMSP effort expanded in Phase II to include a fully operating 7-12 high school model. Achievement gains at the 7th and 8th grade levels in Phase II were tempered by the fact that incoming 7th grade students' academic background at the CMSP High School was significantly lower than students participating in Phase 1. Student performance in Phase II was also affected by the broadening of the CMSP effort from a 7-8th grade program to a fully functioning 7-12 high

New Results from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

Science.gov (United States)

Robock, A.; Kravitz, B.

2013-12-01

. SRM using stratospheric aerosols would reduce ozone and enhance surface UV-B radiation, but the details depend on the size distribution of the aerosols, and the complex interaction between upwelling of ozone-poor air in the tropics, suppression of the NOx cycle, and increases of surface area density. While GeoMIP has improved confidence in the expected climate effects of geoengineering in several key areas, it has also highlighted several important research gaps, such as the effects on terrestrial net primary productivity and the importance of the CO2 physiological effect in determining the hydrologic cycle response to geoengineering. Future efforts will endeavor to address these gaps, as well as encourage cooperation with the chemistry modeling communities, the impact assessment communities (including on agriculture and ecosystems), and other groups interested in model output. We are organizing new GeoMIP experiments that address the suggestion that SRM be implemented by marine cloud brightening, and are proposing that GeoMIP be an integral part of the design of the CMIP6 project.

Lectures on nonlinear sigma-models in projective superspace

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kuzenko, Sergei M, E-mail: kuzenko@cyllene.uwa.edu.a [School of Physics M013, University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley WA 6009 (Australia)

2010-11-05

N= 2 supersymmetry in four spacetime dimensions is intimately related to hyperkaehler and quaternionic Kaehler geometries. On one hand, the target spaces for rigid supersymmetric sigma-models are necessarily hyperkaehler manifolds. On the other hand, when coupled to N= 2 supergravity, the sigma-model target spaces must be quaternionic Kaehler. It is known that such manifolds of restricted holonomy are difficult to generate explicitly. Projective superspace is a field-theoretic approach to construct general N= 2 supersymmetric nonlinear sigma-models, and hence to generate new hyperkaehler and quaternionic Kaehler metrics. Intended for a mixed audience consisting of both physicists and mathematicians, these lectures provide a pedagogical introduction to the projective-superspace approach. (topical review)

Lectures on nonlinear sigma-models in projective superspace

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuzenko, Sergei M

2010-01-01

N= 2 supersymmetry in four spacetime dimensions is intimately related to hyperkaehler and quaternionic Kaehler geometries. On one hand, the target spaces for rigid supersymmetric sigma-models are necessarily hyperkaehler manifolds. On the other hand, when coupled to N= 2 supergravity, the sigma-model target spaces must be quaternionic Kaehler. It is known that such manifolds of restricted holonomy are difficult to generate explicitly. Projective superspace is a field-theoretic approach to construct general N= 2 supersymmetric nonlinear sigma-models, and hence to generate new hyperkaehler and quaternionic Kaehler metrics. Intended for a mixed audience consisting of both physicists and mathematicians, these lectures provide a pedagogical introduction to the projective-superspace approach. (topical review)

On Helical Projection and Its Application in Screw Modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Riliang Liu

2014-04-01

Full Text Available As helical surfaces, in their many and varied forms, are finding more and more applications in engineering, new approaches to their efficient design and manufacture are desired. To that end, the helical projection method that uses curvilinear projection lines to map a space object to a plane is examined in this paper, focusing on its mathematical model and characteristics in terms of graphical representation of helical objects. A number of interesting projective properties are identified in regard to straight lines, curves, and planes, and then the method is further investigated with respect to screws. The result shows that the helical projection of a cylindrical screw turns out to be a Jordan curve, which is determined by the screw's axial profile and number of flights. Based on the projection theory, a practical approach to the modeling of screws and helical surfaces is proposed and illustrated with examples, and its possible application in screw manufacturing is discussed.

Mathematical representation of bolted-joint stiffness: A new suggested model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haidar, Nawras; Obeed, Salwan; Jawad, Mohamed [College of Engineering, University of Babylon, Babel (Iraq)

2011-11-15

Joint member stiffness in a bolted connection directly influences the safety of a design in regard to both static and fatigue loading, as well as in the prevention of separation in the connection. This work provides a new simple model for computing the member stiffness in bolted connections for both fully and partially developed stress envelope fields. The new model is built using a stress distribution polynomial of third order. Finite element analysis (FEA) is performed for some joints geometries, and the results are used to estimate the best analytical envelope angle in the proposed analytical model that gives suitable convergence between the compared results. An experimental effort is exerted to validate the accuracy of a suggested model. When analytical results are compared with FEA results and experimental data, the maximum absolute percentage errors are found to be 2.69 and 14.69, respectively. Also, a good agreement is obtained when the analytical results are compared with other researchers' results.

Accounting for downscaling and model uncertainty in fine-resolution seasonal climate projections over the Columbia River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid; Rana, Arun

2018-01-01

Climate change is expected to have severe impacts on natural systems as well as various socio-economic aspects of human life. This has urged scientific communities to improve the understanding of future climate and reduce the uncertainties associated with projections. In the present study, ten statistically downscaled CMIP5 GCMs at 1/16th deg. spatial resolution from two different downscaling procedures are utilized over the Columbia River Basin (CRB) to assess the changes in climate variables and characterize the associated uncertainties. Three climate variables, i.e. precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature, are studied for the historical period of 1970-2000 as well as future period of 2010-2099, simulated with representative concentration pathways of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is employed to reduce the model uncertainty and develop a probabilistic projection for each variable in each scenario. Historical comparison of long-term attributes of GCMs and observation suggests a more accurate representation for BMA than individual models. Furthermore, BMA projections are used to investigate future seasonal to annual changes of climate variables. Projections indicate significant increase in annual precipitation and temperature, with varied degree of change across different sub-basins of CRB. We then characterized uncertainty of future projections for each season over CRB. Results reveal that model uncertainty is the main source of uncertainty, among others. However, downscaling uncertainty considerably contributes to the total uncertainty of future projections, especially in summer. On the contrary, downscaling uncertainty appears to be higher than scenario uncertainty for precipitation.

ORGANIZATIONAL PROJECT MANAGEMENT MATURITY

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Yana Derenskaya

2017-11-01

, and documenting best practices and potential difficulties. Practical implications. For the purposes of the present research, the level of organizational project management maturity of the enterprise in question is evaluated according to the three-level model developed by H. Кеrzner. The conclusion is made that project management maturity of this enterprise corresponds to maturity level 2. Besides, the defined maturity level is specified in more detail along the life cycle phases in order to determine more precisely the position of project management activity of the enterprise within the maturity model. Potential problems (the so-called “bottlenecks” of the enterprise in the field of project management are identified. Based on the results of the analysis, a number of recommendations are suggested for further development of the corporate system of project management at the given enterprise. The results of the research showed that in order to achieve a higher level of maturity, it is necessary to create a project team, organize a project office, and distribute project management functions among the team members, develop a procedure of involving experts with different professional backgrounds into the project implementation, improve the procedure of creating project teams, ensure the accumulation of best practices of project implementation, establish the corporate standard of project management, and improve the strategic planning for project management, project implementation control, managing changes, labour resources and communication. The suggested guidelines are expected to facilitate the achievement of a higher level of maturity. They also envisage the terms of this transition and the responsible executives. Further enhancement of maturity level is achieved by means of performing a set of activities for improving and aligning various project management sub-processes aimed at managing costs, time, quality, and risks. Another important condition of enhancing

Consistency of climate change projections from multiple global and regional model intercomparison projects

Science.gov (United States)

Fernández, J.; Frías, M. D.; Cabos, W. D.; Cofiño, A. S.; Domínguez, M.; Fita, L.; Gaertner, M. A.; García-Díez, M.; Gutiérrez, J. M.; Jiménez-Guerrero, P.; Liguori, G.; Montávez, J. P.; Romera, R.; Sánchez, E.

2018-03-01

We present an unprecedented ensemble of 196 future climate projections arising from different global and regional model intercomparison projects (MIPs): CMIP3, CMIP5, ENSEMBLES, ESCENA, EURO- and Med-CORDEX. This multi-MIP ensemble includes all regional climate model (RCM) projections publicly available to date, along with their driving global climate models (GCMs). We illustrate consistent and conflicting messages using continental Spain and the Balearic Islands as target region. The study considers near future (2021-2050) changes and their dependence on several uncertainty sources sampled in the multi-MIP ensemble: GCM, future scenario, internal variability, RCM, and spatial resolution. This initial work focuses on mean seasonal precipitation and temperature changes. The results show that the potential GCM-RCM combinations have been explored very unevenly, with favoured GCMs and large ensembles of a few RCMs that do not respond to any ensemble design. Therefore, the grand-ensemble is weighted towards a few models. The selection of a balanced, credible sub-ensemble is challenged in this study by illustrating several conflicting responses between the RCM and its driving GCM and among different RCMs. Sub-ensembles from different initiatives are dominated by different uncertainty sources, being the driving GCM the main contributor to uncertainty in the grand-ensemble. For this analysis of the near future changes, the emission scenario does not lead to a strong uncertainty. Despite the extra computational effort, for mean seasonal changes, the increase in resolution does not lead to important changes.

A proposed model for construction project management ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. ... (decision-making, problem-solving, listening, verbal competency, motivation, persuasion, ... Keywords: Communication skills and leadership model, construction project management, ...

Is the dissociative adult suggestible? A test of the trauma and fantasy models of dissociation.

Science.gov (United States)

Kluemper, Nicole S; Dalenberg, Constance

2014-01-01

Psychologists have long assumed a connection between traumatic experience and psychological dissociation. This hypothesis is referred to as the trauma model of dissociation. In the past decade, a series of papers have been published that question this traditional causal link, proposing an alternative fantasy model of dissociation. In the present research, the relationship among dissociation, suggestibility, and fantasy proneness was examined. Suggestibility was measured through the Gudjonsson Scale of Interrogative Suggestibility (GSS) as well as an autobiographically based version of this measure based on the events of September 11, 2001. Consistent with prior research and with the trauma model, dissociation correlated positively with trauma severity (r = .32, p suggestibility measure. Although some participants did become quite emotional during the procedure, the risk/benefit ratio was perceived by almost all participants to be positive, with more reactive individuals evaluating the procedure more positively. The results consistently support the trauma model of dissociation and fail to support the fantasy model of dissociation.

MODELS OF PROJECT REVERSE ENGINEERING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Віктор Володимирович ІВАНОВ

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Reverse engineering decided important scientific and technical problems of increasing the cost of the existing technical product by transforming it into a product with other features or design. Search ideas of the new application of existing products on the base of heuristic analysis were created. The concept of reverse engineering and its division into three types: conceptual, aggregate and complete was expanded. The use of heuristic methods for reverse engineering concept was showed. The modification model of Reverse engineering based on the model of РМВОК was developed. Our model includes two new phases: identification and transformation. At the identification phase, technical control is made. At the transformation phase, search heuristic idea of the new applied existing technical product was made. The model of execution phase that included heuristic methods, metrological equipment, and CAD/CAM/CAE program complex was created. The model that connected economic indicators of reverse engineering project was developed.

The Study on Stage Financing Model of IT Project Investment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Si-hua Chen

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Stage financing is the basic operation of venture capital investment. In investment, usually venture capitalists use different strategies to obtain the maximum returns. Due to its advantages to reduce the information asymmetry and agency cost, stage financing is widely used by venture capitalists. Although considerable attentions are devoted to stage financing, very little is known about the risk aversion strategies of IT projects. This paper mainly addresses the problem of risk aversion of venture capital investment in IT projects. Based on the analysis of characteristics of venture capital investment of IT projects, this paper introduces a real option pricing model to measure the value brought by the stage financing strategy and design a risk aversion model for IT projects. Because real option pricing method regards investment activity as contingent decision, it helps to make judgment on the management flexibility of IT projects and then make a more reasonable evaluation about the IT programs. Lastly by being applied to a real case, it further illustrates the effectiveness and feasibility of the model.

The Study on Stage Financing Model of IT Project Investment

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Sheng-hua; Xiong, Neal N.

2014-01-01

Stage financing is the basic operation of venture capital investment. In investment, usually venture capitalists use different strategies to obtain the maximum returns. Due to its advantages to reduce the information asymmetry and agency cost, stage financing is widely used by venture capitalists. Although considerable attentions are devoted to stage financing, very little is known about the risk aversion strategies of IT projects. This paper mainly addresses the problem of risk aversion of venture capital investment in IT projects. Based on the analysis of characteristics of venture capital investment of IT projects, this paper introduces a real option pricing model to measure the value brought by the stage financing strategy and design a risk aversion model for IT projects. Because real option pricing method regards investment activity as contingent decision, it helps to make judgment on the management flexibility of IT projects and then make a more reasonable evaluation about the IT programs. Lastly by being applied to a real case, it further illustrates the effectiveness and feasibility of the model. PMID:25147845

The study on stage financing model of IT project investment.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Si-hua; Xu, Sheng-hua; Lee, Changhoon; Xiong, Neal N; He, Wei

2014-01-01

Stage financing is the basic operation of venture capital investment. In investment, usually venture capitalists use different strategies to obtain the maximum returns. Due to its advantages to reduce the information asymmetry and agency cost, stage financing is widely used by venture capitalists. Although considerable attentions are devoted to stage financing, very little is known about the risk aversion strategies of IT projects. This paper mainly addresses the problem of risk aversion of venture capital investment in IT projects. Based on the analysis of characteristics of venture capital investment of IT projects, this paper introduces a real option pricing model to measure the value brought by the stage financing strategy and design a risk aversion model for IT projects. Because real option pricing method regards investment activity as contingent decision, it helps to make judgment on the management flexibility of IT projects and then make a more reasonable evaluation about the IT programs. Lastly by being applied to a real case, it further illustrates the effectiveness and feasibility of the model.

Do telemonitoring projects of heart failure fit the Chronic Care Model?

Science.gov (United States)

Willemse, Evi; Adriaenssens, Jef; Dilles, Tinne; Remmen, Roy

2014-07-01

This study describes the characteristics of extramural and transmural telemonitoring projects on chronic heart failure in Belgium. It describes to what extent these telemonitoring projects coincide with the Chronic Care Model of Wagner. The Chronic Care Model describes essential components for high-quality health care. Telemonitoring can be used to optimise home care for chronic heart failure. It provides a potential prospective to change the current care organisation. This qualitative study describes seven non-invasive home-care telemonitoring projects in patients with heart failure in Belgium. A qualitative design, including interviews and literature review, was used to describe the correspondence of these home-care telemonitoring projects with the dimensions of the Chronic Care Model. The projects were situated in primary and secondary health care. Their primary goal was to reduce the number of readmissions for chronic heart failure. None of these projects succeeded in a final implementation of telemonitoring in home care after the pilot phase. Not all the projects were initiated to accomplish all of the dimensions of the Chronic Care Model. A central role for the patient was sparse. Limited financial resources hampered continuation after the pilot phase. Cooperation and coordination in telemonitoring appears to be major barriers but are, within primary care as well as between the lines of care, important links in follow-up. This discrepancy can be prohibitive for deployment of good chronic care. Chronic Care Model is recommended as basis for future.

Development and application of new quality model for software projects.

Science.gov (United States)

Karnavel, K; Dillibabu, R

2014-01-01

The IT industry tries to employ a number of models to identify the defects in the construction of software projects. In this paper, we present COQUALMO and its limitations and aim to increase the quality without increasing the cost and time. The computation time, cost, and effort to predict the residual defects are very high; this was overcome by developing an appropriate new quality model named the software testing defect corrective model (STDCM). The STDCM was used to estimate the number of remaining residual defects in the software product; a few assumptions and the detailed steps of the STDCM are highlighted. The application of the STDCM is explored in software projects. The implementation of the model is validated using statistical inference, which shows there is a significant improvement in the quality of the software projects.

A Canonical Response in Rainfall Characteristics to Global Warming: Projections by IPCC CMIP5 Models

Science.gov (United States)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.; Kim, K. M.

2012-01-01

Changes in rainfall characteristics induced by global warming are examined based on probability distribution function (PDF) analysis, from outputs of 14 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), CMIP (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models under various scenarios of increased CO2 emissions. Results show that collectively CMIP5 models project a robust and consistent global and regional rainfall response to CO2 warming. Globally, the models show a 1-3% increase in rainfall per degree rise in temperature, with a canonical response featuring large increase (100-250 %) in frequency of occurrence of very heavy rain, a reduction (5-10%) of moderate rain, and an increase (10-15%) of light rain events. Regionally, even though details vary among models, a majority of the models (>10 out of 14) project a consistent large scale response with more heavy rain events in climatologically wet regions, most pronounced in the Pacific ITCZ and the Asian monsoon. Moderate rain events are found to decrease over extensive regions of the subtropical and extratropical oceans, but increases over the extratropical land regions, and the Southern Oceans. The spatial distribution of light rain resembles that of moderate rain, but mostly with opposite polarity. The majority of the models also show increase in the number of dry events (absence or only trace amount of rain) over subtropical and tropical land regions in both hemispheres. These results suggest that rainfall characteristics are changing and that increased extreme rainfall events and droughts occurrences are connected, as a consequent of a global adjustment of the large scale circulation to global warming.

NASA's Aviation Safety and Modeling Project

Science.gov (United States)

Chidester, Thomas R.; Statler, Irving C.

2006-01-01

The Aviation Safety Monitoring and Modeling (ASMM) Project of NASA's Aviation Safety program is cultivating sources of data and developing automated computer hardware and software to facilitate efficient, comprehensive, and accurate analyses of the data collected from large, heterogeneous databases throughout the national aviation system. The ASMM addresses the need to provide means for increasing safety by enabling the identification and correcting of predisposing conditions that could lead to accidents or to incidents that pose aviation risks. A major component of the ASMM Project is the Aviation Performance Measuring System (APMS), which is developing the next generation of software tools for analyzing and interpreting flight data.

A Team Building Model for Software Engineering Courses Term Projects

Science.gov (United States)

Sahin, Yasar Guneri

2011-01-01

This paper proposes a new model for team building, which enables teachers to build coherent teams rapidly and fairly for the term projects of software engineering courses. Moreover, the model can also be used to build teams for any type of project, if the team member candidates are students, or if they are inexperienced on a certain subject. The…

The UK Earth System Model project

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Yongming

2016-04-01

In this talk we will describe the development and current status of the UK Earth System Model (UKESM). This project is a NERC/Met Office collaboration and has two objectives; to develop and apply a world-leading Earth System Model, and to grow a community of UK Earth System Model scientists. We are building numerical models that include all the key components of the global climate system, and contain the important process interactions between global biogeochemistry, atmospheric chemistry and the physical climate system. UKESM will be used to make key CMIP6 simulations as well as long-time (e.g. millennium) simulations, large ensemble experiments and investigating a range of future carbon emission scenarios.

Study on the maturity model of nuclear power project management in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Changbing; Li Huiqiang; Zheng Yanguo

2009-01-01

Based on the general project management maturity model, this paper discussed the establishment of nuclear power engineering project management maturity model in China, and proposed a basic framework in order to provide a way for improving and evaluating the ability of nuclear power project management in China. (authors)

Power Grid Construction Project Portfolio Optimization Based on Bi-level programming model

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Erdong; Li, Shangqi

2017-08-01

As the main body of power grid operation, county-level power supply enterprises undertake an important emission to guarantee the security of power grid operation and safeguard social power using order. The optimization of grid construction projects has been a key issue of power supply capacity and service level of grid enterprises. According to the actual situation of power grid construction project optimization of county-level power enterprises, on the basis of qualitative analysis of the projects, this paper builds a Bi-level programming model based on quantitative analysis. The upper layer of the model is the target restriction of the optimal portfolio; the lower layer of the model is enterprises’ financial restrictions on the size of the enterprise project portfolio. Finally, using a real example to illustrate operation proceeding and the optimization result of the model. Through qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, the bi-level programming model improves the accuracy and normative standardization of power grid enterprises projects.

National Automated Highway System Consortium: Modeling Stakeholder Preferences Project

OpenAIRE

Lathrop, John; Chen, Kan

1997-01-01

This document is the final report of the Modeling Stakeholder Preferences Project. The results of the project consist of three results: 1) evaluation framework; 2) focus group non-quantitative findings/ recommendations; and, 3) performance/impact measures, their endpoints, rankings and weights, for each stakeholder group.

The study of the risk management model of construction project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiang Bo; Feng Yanping; Liu Changbin

2010-01-01

The paper first analyzed the development of the risk management of construction project and the risk management processes, and then briefly introduced the risk management experience of foreign project management. From the project management by objectives point of view, the greatest risk came from the lack of clarity of the objectives in the project management, which led to the project's risk emergence. In the analysis of the principles of the project objectives identification and risk allocation, the paper set up a project management model which insurance companies involved in the whole process of the project management, and simply analyzed the roles of insurance company at last. (authors)

Space-time least-squares Petrov-Galerkin projection in nonlinear model reduction.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Choi, Youngsoo [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Extreme-scale Data Science and Analytics Dept.; Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Carlberg, Kevin Thomas [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Extreme-scale Data Science and Analytics Dept.

2017-09-01

Our work proposes a space-time least-squares Petrov-Galerkin (ST-LSPG) projection method for model reduction of nonlinear dynamical systems. In contrast to typical nonlinear model-reduction methods that first apply Petrov-Galerkin projection in the spatial dimension and subsequently apply time integration to numerically resolve the resulting low-dimensional dynamical system, the proposed method applies projection in space and time simultaneously. To accomplish this, the method first introduces a low-dimensional space-time trial subspace, which can be obtained by computing tensor decompositions of state-snapshot data. The method then computes discrete-optimal approximations in this space-time trial subspace by minimizing the residual arising after time discretization over all space and time in a weighted ℓ²-norm. This norm can be de ned to enable complexity reduction (i.e., hyper-reduction) in time, which leads to space-time collocation and space-time GNAT variants of the ST-LSPG method. Advantages of the approach relative to typical spatial-projection-based nonlinear model reduction methods such as Galerkin projection and least-squares Petrov-Galerkin projection include: (1) a reduction of both the spatial and temporal dimensions of the dynamical system, (2) the removal of spurious temporal modes (e.g., unstable growth) from the state space, and (3) error bounds that exhibit slower growth in time. Numerical examples performed on model problems in fluid dynamics demonstrate the ability of the method to generate orders-of-magnitude computational savings relative to spatial-projection-based reduced-order models without sacrificing accuracy.

Pengembangan Model Outdoor Learning melalui Project Berbasis Local Wisdom dalam Pembelajaran Fisika

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Indah kurnia Putri Damayanti

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Abstrak Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk: (1 menghasilkan model outdoor learning melalui project berbasis local wisdom yang layak digunakan dalam pembelajaran fisika, (2 mengetahui keefektifan penggunaan model outdoor learning melalui project berbasis local wisdom. Penelitian pengembangan ini menggunakan metode pengembangan R & D (Research dan Development. Pada tahap Development, peneliti mengadopsi model 4D, yaitu Define, Design, Develop, dan Disseminate. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model outdoor learning melalui project berbasis local wisdom yang dikembangkan layak digunakan dari segi produk pendukung pembelajaran yang memenuhi kriteria sangat tinggi menurut para ahli, praktis menurut guru dan peserta didik. Lembar observasi yang memenuhi kriteria valid dan reliabel berdasarkan hasil ICC dan tes hasil belajar yang memenuhi kriteria valid dan reliabel berdasarkan hasil Quest. Selain itu, model outdoor learning melalui project berbasis local wisdom lebih efektif digunakan dalam pembelajaran fisika dilihat dari hasil analisis multivariate dan GLMMDs yang memperoleh nilai signifikansi 0,000 dan MD yang tinggi.   AbstractThis research was aimed to: (1 produce outdoor learning via project based suitable local wisdom model used in physics learning, (2 know the effectiveness in using outdoor learning via project based local wisdom model. This developing research used a R & D method (Research and Development. On Development step, the researcher adopted 4D model, they were Define, Design, Develop, dan Dissemination. The results showed that the developed outdoor learning via project based local wisdom model was suitable to be used in terms of learning support product that was in very high category according expert, practical according teacher and students. In addition the observation sheet was in valid criteria and reliabel based on ICC and the learning outcome test was in valid criteria and reliabel based on Quest. Besides, outdoor learning via

Modelling climate impact on floods under future emission scenarios using an ensemble of climate model projections

Science.gov (United States)

Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H. L.; He, Y.; Freer, J.; Pappenberger, F.

2012-04-01

Evidence provided by modelled assessments of climate change impact on flooding is fundamental to water resource and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from Global and Regional Climate Models, and there is no doubt that these provide a useful assessment of future climate change. However, cascading ensembles of climate projections into impact models is not straightforward because of problems of coarse resolution in Global and Regional Climate Models (GCM/RCM) and the deficiencies in modelling high-intensity precipitation events. Thus decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs, such as selection of downscaling methods and application of Model Output Statistics (MOS). In this paper a grand ensemble of projections from several GCM/RCM are used to drive a hydrological model and analyse the resulting future flood projections for the Upper Severn, UK. The impact and implications of applying MOS techniques to precipitation as well as hydrological model parameter uncertainty is taken into account. The resultant grand ensemble of future river discharge projections from the RCM/GCM-hydrological model chain is evaluated against a response surface technique combined with a perturbed physics experiment creating a probabilisic ensemble climate model outputs. The ensemble distribution of results show that future risk of flooding in the Upper Severn increases compared to present conditions, however, the study highlights that the uncertainties are large and that strong assumptions were made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future discharge. The importance of analysing on a seasonal basis rather than just annual is highlighted. The inability of the RCMs (and GCMs) to produce realistic precipitation patterns, even in present conditions, is a major caveat of local climate impact studies on flooding, and this should be a focus for future development.

A New Bi-Directional Projection Model Based on Pythagorean Uncertain Linguistic Variable

OpenAIRE

Huidong Wang; Shifan He; Xiaohong Pan

2018-01-01

To solve the multi-attribute decision making (MADM) problems with Pythagorean uncertain linguistic variable, an extended bi-directional projection method is proposed. First, we utilize the linguistic scale function to convert uncertain linguistic variable and provide a new projection model, subsequently. Then, to depict the bi-directional projection method, the formative vectors of alternatives and ideal alternatives are defined. Furthermore, a comparative analysis with projection model is co...

Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Steinacher

2010-03-01

Full Text Available Changes in marine net primary productivity (PP and export of particulate organic carbon (EP are projected over the 21st century with four global coupled carbon cycle-climate models. These include representations of marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle of different structure and complexity. All four models show a decrease in global mean PP and EP between 2 and 20% by 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions, for the SRES A2 emission scenario. Two different regimes for productivity changes are consistently identified in all models. The first chain of mechanisms is dominant in the low- and mid-latitude ocean and in the North Atlantic: reduced input of macro-nutrients into the euphotic zone related to enhanced stratification, reduced mixed layer depth, and slowed circulation causes a decrease in macro-nutrient concentrations and in PP and EP. The second regime is projected for parts of the Southern Ocean: an alleviation of light and/or temperature limitation leads to an increase in PP and EP as productivity is fueled by a sustained nutrient input. A region of disagreement among the models is the Arctic, where three models project an increase in PP while one model projects a decrease. Projected changes in seasonal and interannual variability are modest in most regions. Regional model skill metrics are proposed to generate multi-model mean fields that show an improved skill in representing observation-based estimates compared to a simple multi-model average. Model results are compared to recent productivity projections with three different algorithms, usually applied to infer net primary production from satellite observations.

IMPLEMENTATION OF WORK LIFE QUALITY PROGRAMS WITH THE PROJECT MANAGEMENT MODEL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Lúcia Granja Coutinho

2010-06-01

Full Text Available The research studies the implementation of Quality of Working Life (QWL programs using project management techniques. Quality of Work Life projects have undergone a constant increase in scope to the point where they currently involve such diverse themes as change in dietary habits, exercise, stress management, socio environmental responsibility, and adult education. The major focus of this research is to analyze the processes and knowledge areas of project management being used to deal with this increased scope. The managerial processes identified were divided into categories of preparation, structuring, execution, and conclusion. The knowledge areas studied were: communication, risks, human resources, and acquisitions. The firms studied included mid to large sized firms located in the north, southeast and south of Brazil. We interviewed managers, directors, CEOs, plant managers, and line managers as part of this effort. The results suggest that the project management practices used were ad hoc and based on day to day needs. They also suggest that sound project management practices are applicable to QWL programs in the firms we studied.

Benchmarking of wind farm scale wake models in the EERA - DTOC project

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan; Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Barthelmie, R.J.

2013-01-01

-flow to combine wind farm (micro) and cluster (meso) scale wake models. For this purpose, a benchmark campaign is organized on the existing wind farm wake models available within the project, in order to identify which model would be the most appropriate for this coupling. A number of standardized wake cases......Designing offshore wind farms next to existing or planned wind farm clusters has recently become a common practice in the North Sea. These types of projects face unprecedented challenges in term of wind energy siting. The currently ongoing European project FP7 EERA - DTOC (Design Tool for Offshore...... wind farm Clusters) is aiming at providing a new type of model work-flow to address this issue. The wake modeling part of the EERA - DTOC project is to improve the fundamental understanding of wind turbine wakes and modeling. One of these challenges is to create a new kind of wake modeling work...

HB-Line Special Nuclear Material Campaigns: Model-Based Project Management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

CHANG, ROBERT

2004-01-01

This study is to show how a model was used to enable management to better estimate production capabilities to ensure contract milestones/commitments are met, to cope with fast changing project baselines and project missions, to ensure the project will meet the negotiated throughput, and to eliminate unnecessary but costly design changes

Building information models for astronomy projects

Science.gov (United States)

Ariño, Javier; Murga, Gaizka; Campo, Ramón; Eletxigerra, Iñigo; Ampuero, Pedro

2012-09-01

A Building Information Model is a digital representation of physical and functional characteristics of a building. BIMs represent the geometrical characteristics of the Building, but also properties like bills of quantities, definition of COTS components, status of material in the different stages of the project, project economic data, etc. The BIM methodology, which is well established in the Architecture Engineering and Construction (AEC) domain for conventional buildings, has been brought one step forward in its application for Astronomical/Scientific facilities. In these facilities steel/concrete structures have high dynamic and seismic requirements, M&E installations are complex and there is a large amount of special equipment and mechanisms involved as a fundamental part of the facility. The detail design definition is typically implemented by different design teams in specialized design software packages. In order to allow the coordinated work of different engineering teams, the overall model, and its associated engineering database, is progressively integrated using a coordination and roaming software which can be used before starting construction phase for checking interferences, planning the construction sequence, studying maintenance operation, reporting to the project office, etc. This integrated design & construction approach will allow to efficiently plan construction sequence (4D). This is a powerful tool to study and analyze in detail alternative construction sequences and ideally coordinate the work of different construction teams. In addition engineering, construction and operational database can be linked to the virtual model (6D), what gives to the end users a invaluable tool for the lifecycle management, as all the facility information can be easily accessed, added or replaced. This paper presents the BIM methodology as implemented by IDOM with the E-ELT and ATST Enclosures as application examples.

Projective limits of state spaces III. Toy-models

Science.gov (United States)

Lanéry, Suzanne; Thiemann, Thomas

2018-01-01

In this series of papers, we investigate the projective framework initiated by Kijowski (1977) and Okołów (2009, 2014, 2013) [1,2], which describes the states of a quantum theory as projective families of density matrices. A short reading guide to the series can be found in Lanéry (2016). A strategy to implement the dynamics in this formalism was presented in our first paper Lanéry and Thiemann (2017) (see also Lanéry, 2016, section 4), which we now test in two simple toy-models. The first one is a very basic linear model, meant as an illustration of the general procedure, and we will only discuss it at the classical level. In the second one, we reformulate the Schrödinger equation, treated as a classical field theory, within this projective framework, and proceed to its (non-relativistic) second quantization. We are then able to reproduce the physical content of the usual Fock quantization.

Theory, modeling, and integrated studies in the Arase (ERG) project

Science.gov (United States)

Seki, Kanako; Miyoshi, Yoshizumi; Ebihara, Yusuke; Katoh, Yuto; Amano, Takanobu; Saito, Shinji; Shoji, Masafumi; Nakamizo, Aoi; Keika, Kunihiro; Hori, Tomoaki; Nakano, Shin'ya; Watanabe, Shigeto; Kamiya, Kei; Takahashi, Naoko; Omura, Yoshiharu; Nose, Masahito; Fok, Mei-Ching; Tanaka, Takashi; Ieda, Akimasa; Yoshikawa, Akimasa

2018-02-01

Understanding of underlying mechanisms of drastic variations of the near-Earth space (geospace) is one of the current focuses of the magnetospheric physics. The science target of the geospace research project Exploration of energization and Radiation in Geospace (ERG) is to understand the geospace variations with a focus on the relativistic electron acceleration and loss processes. In order to achieve the goal, the ERG project consists of the three parts: the Arase (ERG) satellite, ground-based observations, and theory/modeling/integrated studies. The role of theory/modeling/integrated studies part is to promote relevant theoretical and simulation studies as well as integrated data analysis to combine different kinds of observations and modeling. Here we provide technical reports on simulation and empirical models related to the ERG project together with their roles in the integrated studies of dynamic geospace variations. The simulation and empirical models covered include the radial diffusion model of the radiation belt electrons, GEMSIS-RB and RBW models, CIMI model with global MHD simulation REPPU, GEMSIS-RC model, plasmasphere thermosphere model, self-consistent wave-particle interaction simulations (electron hybrid code and ion hybrid code), the ionospheric electric potential (GEMSIS-POT) model, and SuperDARN electric field models with data assimilation. ERG (Arase) science center tools to support integrated studies with various kinds of data are also briefly introduced.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

Implementation of the model project: Ghanaian experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schandorf, C.; Darko, E.O.; Yeboah, J.; Asiamah, S.D.

2003-01-01

Upgrading of the legal infrastructure has been the most time consuming and frustrating part of the implementation of the Model project due to the unstable system of governance and rule of law coupled with the low priority given to legislation on technical areas such as safe applications of Nuclear Science and Technology in medicine, industry, research and teaching. Dwindling Governmental financial support militated against physical and human resource infrastructure development and operational effectiveness. The trend over the last five years has been to strengthen the revenue generation base of the Radiation Protection Institute through good management practices to ensure a cost effective use of the limited available resources for a self-reliant and sustainable radiation and waste safety programme. The Ghanaian experience regarding the positive and negative aspects of the implementation of the Model Project is highlighted. (author)

Adoption of Building Information Modelling in project planning risk management

Science.gov (United States)

Mering, M. M.; Aminudin, E.; Chai, C. S.; Zakaria, R.; Tan, C. S.; Lee, Y. Y.; Redzuan, A. A.

2017-11-01

An efficient and effective risk management required a systematic and proper methodology besides knowledge and experience. However, if the risk management is not discussed from the starting of the project, this duty is notably complicated and no longer efficient. This paper presents the adoption of Building Information Modelling (BIM) in project planning risk management. The objectives is to identify the traditional risk management practices and its function, besides, determine the best function of BIM in risk management and investigating the efficiency of adopting BIM-based risk management during the project planning phase. In order to obtain data, a quantitative approach is adopted in this research. Based on data analysis, the lack of compliance with project requirements and failure to recognise risk and develop responses to opportunity are the risks occurred when traditional risk management is implemented. When using BIM in project planning, it works as the tracking of cost control and cash flow give impact on the project cycle to be completed on time. 5D cost estimation or cash flow modeling benefit risk management in planning, controlling and managing budget and cost reasonably. There were two factors that mostly benefit a BIM-based technology which were formwork plan with integrated fall plan and design for safety model check. By adopting risk management, potential risks linked with a project and acknowledging to those risks can be identified to reduce them to an acceptable extent. This means recognizing potential risks and avoiding threat by reducing their negative effects. The BIM-based risk management can enhance the planning process of construction projects. It benefits the construction players in various aspects. It is important to know the application of BIM-based risk management as it can be a lesson learnt to others to implement BIM and increase the quality of the project.

US Food Security and Climate Change: Mid-Century Projections of Commodity Crop Production by the IMPACT Model

Science.gov (United States)

Takle, E. S.; Gustafson, D. I.; Beachy, R.; Nelson, G. C.; Mason-D'Croz, D.; Palazzo, A.

2013-12-01

Agreement is developing among agricultural scientists on the emerging inability of agriculture to meet growing global food demands. The lack of additional arable land and availability of freshwater have long been constraints on agriculture. Changes in trends of weather conditions that challenge physiological limits of crops, as projected by global climate models, are expected to exacerbate the global food challenge toward the middle of the 21st century. These climate- and constraint-driven crop production challenges are interconnected within a complex global economy, where diverse factors add to price volatility and food scarcity. We use the DSSAT crop modeling suite, together with mid-century projections of four AR4 global models, as input to the International Food Policy Research Institute IMPACT model to project the impact of climate change on food security through the year 2050 for internationally traded crops. IMPACT is an iterative model that responds to endogenous and exogenous drivers to dynamically solve for the world prices that ensure global supply equals global demand. The modeling methodology reconciles the limited spatial resolution of macro-level economic models that operate through equilibrium-driven relationships at a national level with detailed models of biophysical processes at high spatial resolution. The analysis presented here suggests that climate change in the first half of the 21st century does not represent a near-term threat to food security in the US due to the availability of adaptation strategies (e.g., loss of current growing regions is balanced by gain of new growing regions). However, as climate continues to trend away from 20th century norms current adaptation measures will not be sufficient to enable agriculture to meet growing food demand. Climate scenarios from higher-level carbon emissions exacerbate the food shortfall, although uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly precipitation) is a limitation to impact

A Systematic Approach to Modelling Change Processes in Construction Projects

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Ibrahim Motawa

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Modelling change processes within construction projects isessential to implement changes efficiently. Incomplete informationon the project variables at the early stages of projects leads toinadequate knowledge of future states and imprecision arisingfrom ambiguity in project parameters. This lack of knowledge isconsidered among the main source of changes in construction.Change identification and evaluation, in addition to predictingits impacts on project parameters, can help in minimising thedisruptive effects of changes. This paper presents a systematicapproach to modelling change process within construction projectsthat helps improve change identification and evaluation. Theapproach represents the key decisions required to implementchanges. The requirements of an effective change processare presented first. The variables defined for efficient changeassessment and diagnosis are then presented. Assessmentof construction changes requires an analysis for the projectcharacteristics that lead to change and also analysis of therelationship between the change causes and effects. The paperconcludes that, at the early stages of a project, projects with a highlikelihood of change occurrence should have a control mechanismover the project characteristics that have high influence on theproject. It also concludes, for the relationship between changecauses and effects, the multiple causes of change should bemodelled in a way to enable evaluating the change effects moreaccurately. The proposed approach is the framework for tacklingsuch conclusions and can be used for evaluating change casesdepending on the available information at the early stages ofconstruction projects.

Quantitative histological models suggest endothermy in plesiosaurs

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Corinna V. Fleischle

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Background Plesiosaurs are marine reptiles that arose in the Late Triassic and survived to the Late Cretaceous. They have a unique and uniform bauplan and are known for their very long neck and hydrofoil-like flippers. Plesiosaurs are among the most successful vertebrate clades in Earth’s history. Based on bone mass decrease and cosmopolitan distribution, both of which affect lifestyle, indications of parental care, and oxygen isotope analyses, evidence for endothermy in plesiosaurs has accumulated. Recent bone histological investigations also provide evidence of fast growth and elevated metabolic rates. However, quantitative estimations of metabolic rates and bone growth rates in plesiosaurs have not been attempted before. Methods Phylogenetic eigenvector maps is a method for estimating trait values from a predictor variable while taking into account phylogenetic relationships. As predictor variable, this study employs vascular density, measured in bone histological sections of fossil eosauropterygians and extant comparative taxa. We quantified vascular density as primary osteon density, thus, the proportion of vascular area (including lamellar infillings of primary osteons to total bone area. Our response variables are bone growth rate (expressed as local bone apposition rate and resting metabolic rate (RMR. Results Our models reveal bone growth rates and RMRs for plesiosaurs that are in the range of birds, suggesting that plesiosaurs were endotherm. Even for basal eosauropterygians we estimate values in the range of mammals or higher. Discussion Our models are influenced by the availability of comparative data, which are lacking for large marine amniotes, potentially skewing our results. However, our statistically robust inference of fast growth and fast metabolism is in accordance with other evidence for plesiosaurian endothermy. Endothermy may explain the success of plesiosaurs consisting in their survival of the end-Triassic extinction

The Timber Resource Inventory Model (TRIM): a projection model for timber supply and policy analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

P.L. Tedder; R.N. La Mont; J.C. Kincaid

1987-01-01

TRIM (Timber Resource Inventory Model) is a yield table projection system developed for timber supply projections and policy analysis. TRIM simulates timber growth, inventories, management and area changes, and removals over the projection period. Programs in the TRIM system, card-by-card descriptions of required inputs, table formats, and sample results are presented...

THE MODELLING OF ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURES OF MANAGEMENT BY REALIZING INVESTMENT CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

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Олег Александрович КУЧМА

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The authors consider the modeling of organizational structures by virtue of interaction between the basic participants by realizing of investment construction projects. This process is directed at the complex analysis of a problem of quality management by creating of building goods taking into account modern project management tendencies. The topicality of problem is obvious as by realizing of investment construction projects there is a liberal share of uncompleted projects, and in the completed projects actual values considerably exceed budgeted capital expenditures. The introduced model allows managing the project per quality system in all phases of the investment construction project‘s life cycle. It promotes refinement of building goods, improves the rate of successfully completed projects with actual values near budgeted.

Project Finance Model for Small Contractors in USA

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Jawahar Nesan

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Construction projects do not require a large capital outlay but a large working capital to start up the project. Unfortunately, for small contractors there are very limited options available from the banks or other lending institutions to cover this large working capital requirement in the absence of sufficient collateral. The “Project Finance” method presented in this paper is recommended as the most effective method for small contractors in the United States. The problems of small and start up contractors in funding their projects have been little addressed in the literature. The current financing practices were observed through both the literature review and interviews with contractors and bankers in the western Michigan area and subsequently a system has been proposed which could help a small start-up company seeking higher growth. The growth rates that can be achieved using the project finance system in contrast to the traditional “line of credit” arrangements as illustrated in this paper show that the project finance model is beneficial.

Incentive Model Based on Cooperative Relationship in Sustainable Construction Projects

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Guangdong Wu

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Considering the cooperative relationship between owners and contractors in sustainable construction projects, as well as the synergistic effects created by cooperative behaviors, a cooperative incentive model was developed using game theory. The model was formulated and analyzed under both non-moral hazard and moral hazard situations. Then, a numerical simulation and example were proposed to verify the conclusions derived from the model. The results showed that the synergistic effect increases the input intensity of one party’s resource transfer into the increase of marginal utility of the other party, thus the owner and contractor are willing to enhance their levels of effort. One party’s optimal benefit allocation coefficient is positively affected by its own output efficiency, and negatively affected by the other party’s output efficiency. The effort level and expected benefits of the owner and contractor can be improved by enhancing the cooperative relationship between the two parties, as well as enhancing the net benefits of a sustainable construction project. The synergistic effect cannot lower the negative effect of moral hazard behaviors during the implementation of sustainable construction projects. Conversely, the higher levels of the cooperative relationship, the wider the gaps amongst the optimal values under both non-moral hazard and moral hazard situations for the levels of effort, expected benefits and net project benefits. Since few studies to date have emphasized the effects of cooperative relationship on sustainable construction projects, this study constructed a game-based incentive model to bridge the gaps. This study contributes significant theoretical and practical insights into the management of cooperation amongst stakeholders, and into the enhancement of the overall benefits of sustainable construction projects.

A New Bi-Directional Projection Model Based on Pythagorean Uncertain Linguistic Variable

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Huidong Wang

2018-04-01

Full Text Available To solve the multi-attribute decision making (MADM problems with Pythagorean uncertain linguistic variable, an extended bi-directional projection method is proposed. First, we utilize the linguistic scale function to convert uncertain linguistic variable and provide a new projection model, subsequently. Then, to depict the bi-directional projection method, the formative vectors of alternatives and ideal alternatives are defined. Furthermore, a comparative analysis with projection model is conducted to show the superiority of bi-directional projection method. Finally, an example of graduate’s job option is given to demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method.

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O' Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

2016-01-01

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

SELECTION OF EFFECTIVE MODELS OF PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION IN A CHANGING FINANCIAL SITUATION

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Александр Иванович МЕНЕЙЛЮК

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The article describes the methods of selecting effective models of construction projects of residential buildings and recommendations for its use. The technique is based on the construction of the models in the program Microsoft Project and analysis using the program COMPEX. Methods can be used not only for building projects. It is especially effective in a variable financial situation.

Evaluation model of project complexity for large-scale construction projects in Iran - A Fuzzy ANP approach

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Aliyeh Kazemi

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Construction projects have always been complex. By growing trend of this complexity, implementations of large-scale constructions become harder. Hence, evaluating and understanding these complexities are critical. Correct evaluation of a project complication can provide executives and managers with good source to use. Fuzzy analytic network process (ANP is a logical and systematic approach toward defining, evaluation, and grading. This method allows for analyzing complex systems, and determining complexity of them. In this study, by taking advantage of fuzzy ANP, effective indexes for development of complications in large-scale construction projects in Iran have been determined and prioritized. The results show socio-political, project system interdependencies, and technological complexity indexes ranked top to three. Furthermore, in comparison of three main huge projects: commercial-administrative, hospital, and skyscrapers, the hospital project had been evaluated as the most complicated. This model is beneficial for professionals in managing large-scale projects.

Expertly validated models and phylogenetically-controlled analysis suggests responses to climate change are related to species traits in the order lagomorpha.

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Katie Leach

Full Text Available Climate change during the past five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems, and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs have been used widely to project changes in species' bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical, and habitat variables for all 87 lagomorph species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current models and only those deemed 'modellable' within our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species. Phylogenetically-controlled regressions were used to test whether species traits correlated with predicted responses to climate change. Climate change is likely to impact more than two-thirds of lagomorph species, with leporids (rabbits, hares, and jackrabbits likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov's Pika (Ochotona koslowi. Smaller-bodied species were more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing little poleward movement, and fecund species were more likely to shift latitudinally and elevationally. Our results suggest that species traits may be important indicators of future climate change and we believe multi-species approaches, as demonstrated here, are likely to lead to more effective mitigation measures and conservation management. We strongly advocate studies minimising data gaps in our knowledge of

INFORMATION MODELING OF LIFE CYCLE OF HIGH-RISE CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

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Gusakova Elena Aleksandrovna

2018-02-01

Full Text Available To date, many years’ experience in the construction and operation of high-rise buildings has been accumulated. Its analysis reveals not only the engineering and organizational-technological specifics of such projects, but also systemic gaps in the field of management. In the implementation of large-scale and unique projects for high-rise buildings, the problems and tasks of improving approaches to managing the full life cycle of projects and methods, which will improve their competitiveness, become topical. The systems being used have largely exhausted their resource efficiency, which is associated with automation of traditional “inherited” processes and management structures, as well as development of IT-systems focused on digitalization of the activities of construction company, rather than the project. To solve these problems, it is proposed to carry out: reengineering of the schemes of information interaction between the project’s participants; formation of integrated digital environment for the life cycle of the project; development of systems for integrating data management and project management. Subject: problems, approaches and methods of digitalization of project’s life cycle management in relation to the specifics and features of high-rise buildings. Research objectives: substantiation of the most perspective approaches and methods of information modeling of high-rise construction as the basis for managing the full life cycle of the given project. Materials and methods: the experience of digitalization of design, construction, operation and development of high-rise buildings, presented in specialized literature, is analyzed. The methods for integrating information models of various stages of project’s life cycle and for information interaction of project’s participants are considered. Results: the concept of forming a single digital environment for the project is proposed, taking into account the features of the life

An incremental procedure model for e-learning projects at universities

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Pahlke, Friedrich

2006-11-01

Full Text Available E-learning projects at universities are produced under different conditions than in industry. The main characteristic of many university projects is that these are realized quasi in a solo effort. In contrast, in private industry the different, interdisciplinary skills that are necessary for the development of e-learning are typically supplied by a multimedia agency.A specific procedure tailored for the use at universities is therefore required to facilitate mastering the amount and complexity of the tasks.In this paper an incremental procedure model is presented, which describes the proceeding in every phase of the project. It allows a high degree of flexibility and emphasizes the didactical concept – instead of the technical implementation. In the second part, we illustrate the practical use of the theoretical procedure model based on the project “Online training in Genetic Epidemiology”.

A model validation framework for climate change projection and impact assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Henrik; Refsgaard, Jens C.; Andréassian, Vazken

2014-01-01

methods for projection of climate change (single and ensemble model projections and space‐timesubstitution) and use of different data sources as proxy for future climate conditions (long historical records comprising non‐ stationarity, paleo data, and controlled experiments). The basic guiding principles...... proxy data, reflecting future conditions. This test can be used with both single and ensemble model projections as well as with space‐time‐substitutions. It is generally expected to be more powerful when applied to a model ensemble than to a single model. Since space‐timesubstitutions include...... a differential split‐sample test using best available proxy data that reflect the expected future conditions at the site being considered. Such proxy data may be obtained from long historical records comprising nonstationarity, paleo data, or controlled experiments. The test can be applied with different...

Predicting Defects Using Information Intelligence Process Models in the Software Technology Project.

Science.gov (United States)

Selvaraj, Manjula Gandhi; Jayabal, Devi Shree; Srinivasan, Thenmozhi; Balasubramanie, Palanisamy

2015-01-01

A key differentiator in a competitive market place is customer satisfaction. As per Gartner 2012 report, only 75%-80% of IT projects are successful. Customer satisfaction should be considered as a part of business strategy. The associated project parameters should be proactively managed and the project outcome needs to be predicted by a technical manager. There is lot of focus on the end state and on minimizing defect leakage as much as possible. Focus should be on proactively managing and shifting left in the software life cycle engineering model. Identify the problem upfront in the project cycle and do not wait for lessons to be learnt and take reactive steps. This paper gives the practical applicability of using predictive models and illustrates use of these models in a project to predict system testing defects thus helping to reduce residual defects.

Structural Equation Model for Evaluating Factors Affecting Quality of Social Infrastructure Projects

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Shahid Hussain

2018-05-01

Full Text Available The quality of the constructed social infrastructure project has been considered a necessary measure for the sustainability of projects. Studies on factors affecting project quality have used various techniques and methods to explain the relationships between particular variables. Unexpectedly, Structural Equation Modeling (SEM has acquired very little concern in factors affecting project quality studies. To address this limitation in the body of knowledge, the objective of this study was to apply the SEM approach and build a model that explained and identified the critical factors affecting quality in social infrastructure projects. The authors developed a quantitative approach using smart-PLS version 3.2.7. This study shed light on the views of different experts based on their experience in public construction projects in Pakistan. Particularly, the authors aimed to find out the relationships between construction, stakeholders, materials, design, and external factors, and how these relate to project quality. The findings of this study revealed that the R2 value of the model was scored at 0.749, which meant that the five exogenous latent constructs collectively explained 74.9% of the variance in project quality. The Goodness-of-Fit of the model was 0.458. The construction related factor was the most important out of the five constructs. This study determined that better planning and monitoring and evaluation should be developed to better address and control the quality defects by decision-makers, project managers as well as contractors. These findings might support practitioners and decision makers to focus on quality related problems that might occur in their current or future projects.

European project for a multinational macrosectoral model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

d' Alcantara, G; Italianer, A

1984-01-01

This paper describes the HERMES project, a multinational macrosectoral European econometric modelling effort, sponsored by the Directorates General II (Economic and Financial Affairs), XII (Science, Research and Development), XVII (Energy) and the SOEC. The set-up of the model is sketched against the background of problems of growth, unemployment, inflation, trade balances, government balances and energy policy. Although the definitions of the variables and a complete specification of the model are given in the Appendix, the major features of the model are described extensively in the text. These include private and collective consumption (incl. a consumer demand system), the putty-clay production process, price and wage formation, sectoral bilateral trade flows and integrated energy economy modelling.

Modelling projections for the risks related with atrial fibrillation in East Asia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bai, Ying; Guo, Shi-Dong; Shantsila, Alena

2017-01-01

Aims: In the Far East, there has generally been low uptake of oral anticoagulants (OACs) using vitamin K antagonists (VKA, e.g. warfarin) for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (AF), but OAC use has been increasing more recently, with the introduction of the non-vitamin K antagonist oral...... anticoagulants (NOACs). To explore the risks of ischaemic stroke (IS) and death related to AF in East Asia using modelling projections. Methods and results: We performed a modelling analysis of possible trends of IS and death rates in AF patients from the time period of only VKA use to current increasing trends....... There was an estimated annual risk reduction of 5484 ISs and 1128 deaths from 2016 to 2030, respectively. The AF population is estimated to reach 861 900 in 2050, with a reduction of 206 315 ISs and 139 353 deaths. Conclusion: This modelling analysis suggests that the transition from VKA to NOACs may greatly help...

Projection model for flame chemiluminescence tomography based on lens imaging

Science.gov (United States)

Wan, Minggang; Zhuang, Jihui

2018-04-01

For flame chemiluminescence tomography (FCT) based on lens imaging, the projection model is essential because it formulates the mathematical relation between the flame projections captured by cameras and the chemiluminescence field, and, through this relation, the field is reconstructed. This work proposed the blurry-spot (BS) model, which takes more universal assumptions and has higher accuracy than the widely applied line-of-sight model. By combining the geometrical camera model and the thin-lens equation, the BS model takes into account perspective effect of the camera lens; by combining ray-tracing technique and Monte Carlo simulation, it also considers inhomogeneous distribution of captured radiance on the image plane. Performance of these two models in FCT was numerically compared, and results showed that using the BS model could lead to better reconstruction quality in wider application ranges.

Construction project investment control model based on instant information

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

WANG Xue-tong

2006-01-01

Change of construction conditions always influences project investment by causing the loss of construction work time and extending the duration. To resolve such problem as difficult dynamic control in work construction plan, this article presents a concept of instant optimization by ways of adjustment operation time of each working procedure to minimize investment change. Based on this concept, its mathematical model is established and a strict mathematical justification is performed. An instant optimization model takes advantage of instant information in the construction process to duly complete adjustment of construction; thus we maximize cost efficiency of project investment.

Developing integrated parametric planning models for budgeting and managing complex projects

Science.gov (United States)

Etnyre, Vance A.; Black, Ken U.

1988-01-01

The applicability of integrated parametric models for the budgeting and management of complex projects is investigated. Methods for building a very flexible, interactive prototype for a project planning system, and software resources available for this purpose, are discussed and evaluated. The prototype is required to be sensitive to changing objectives, changing target dates, changing costs relationships, and changing budget constraints. To achieve the integration of costs and project and task durations, parametric cost functions are defined by a process of trapezoidal segmentation, where the total cost for the project is the sum of the various project cost segments, and each project cost segment is the integral of a linearly segmented cost loading function over a specific interval. The cost can thus be expressed algebraically. The prototype was designed using Lotus-123 as the primary software tool. This prototype implements a methodology for interactive project scheduling that provides a model of a system that meets most of the goals for the first phase of the study and some of the goals for the second phase.

METHODS OF SELECTING THE EFFECTIVE MODELS OF BUILDINGS REPROFILING PROJECTS

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Александр Иванович МЕНЕЙЛЮК

2016-02-01

Full Text Available The article highlights the important task of project management in reprofiling of buildings. It is expedient to pay attention to selecting effective engineering solutions to reduce the duration and cost reduction at the project management in the construction industry. This article presents a methodology for the selection of efficient organizational and technical solutions for the reconstruction of buildings reprofiling. The method is based on a compilation of project variants in the program Microsoft Project and experimental statistical analysis using the program COMPEX. The introduction of this technique in the realigning of buildings allows choosing efficient models of projects, depending on the given constraints. Also, this technique can be used for various construction projects.

Numerical modeling in photonic crystals integrated technology: the COPERNICUS Project

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Malaguti, Stefania; Armaroli, Andrea; Bellanca, Gaetano

2011-01-01

Photonic crystals will play a fundamental role in the future of optical communications. The relevance of the numerical modeling for the success of this technology is assessed by using some examples concerning the experience of the COPERNICUS Project.......Photonic crystals will play a fundamental role in the future of optical communications. The relevance of the numerical modeling for the success of this technology is assessed by using some examples concerning the experience of the COPERNICUS Project....

Supply Chain Management in Flyover Projects in India

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Sudhir Yadav

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper explores the application of supply chain management (SCM in the Indian construction industry. The authors studied the SCM practices followed in flyover projects and compared them with the seamless SCM model for construction proposed by a previous study. A case study approach was followed for the research work. Structured interviews were conducted to understand the SCM practices in flyover projects in India. The developed model advocates leading roles for client and strategic needs analysis and value management study that are missing in the studied projects. All of the projects studied faced cost and time overruns. The seamless SCM model may be extended to developing countries by incorporating requirements related to the long-term relationship between project agents and, if possible, by suggesting that clients should not select agents using only the minimal cost criteria. The extended model also proposes SCM training for all project agents before the start of the project. Strategic needs analysis and value management study should be an integral part of the construction project to improve project efficiency. Implementing the seamless SCM model calls for the early involvement (i.e., at the project design stage of all project agents. Project sponsors can apply the findings of this study to manage time and cost overruns.

Project-matrix models of marketing organization

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Gutić Dragutin

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Unlike theory and practice of corporation organization, in marketing organization numerous forms and contents at its disposal are not reached until this day. It can be well estimated that marketing organization today in most of our companies and in almost all its parts, noticeably gets behind corporation organization. Marketing managers have always been occupied by basic, narrow marketing activities as: sales growth, market analysis, market growth and market share, marketing research, introduction of new products, modification of products, promotion, distribution etc. They rarely found it necessary to focus a bit more to different aspects of marketing management, for example: marketing planning and marketing control, marketing organization and leading. This paper deals with aspects of project - matrix marketing organization management. Two-dimensional and more-dimensional models are presented. Among two-dimensional, these models are analyzed: Market management/products management model; Products management/management of product lifecycle phases on market model; Customers management/marketing functions management model; Demand management/marketing functions management model; Market positions management/marketing functions management model. .

PENGEMBANGAN TUGAS AKHIR MELALUI PROJECT BASED LEARNING MODEL UNTUK MENINGKATKAN GENERIC GREEN SKILLS SISWA

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Ana Ana

2015-02-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT The development of students’ final project through Project-based Learning (PBLapproach was conducted in the workshop of family resource management (FRM in 7th semester.PBL approach is expected to give contribution to students’ motivation and experience to finish their final assignments of FRM workshop. The objectives of the research are to: (1 develop PBL model for the students’final project; (2 produce learning instruments of PBL such as lesson plans, manual of FRM workshop, and scientific report of FRM workshop. The method of the study was using research and development of Plomp model and quasi experiment for testing the effectiveness of the model. The research subjects were the students from the class of 2009 and 2010 who joined FRM workshop course. The study produced model, lesson plans, and manual of FRM workshop as the outputs. The result showed that project based learning model was effective to improve the students’ generic green skills for project management, collaborative skills, and communicative competence. Keywords: final project, generic green skill, family resource management, Project-Based Learning

Climatic Models Ensemble-based Mid-21st Century Runoff Projections: A Bayesian Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Achieng, K. O.; Zhu, J.

2017-12-01

There are a number of North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) climatic models that have been used to project surface runoff in the mid-21st century. Statistical model selection techniques are often used to select the model that best fits data. However, model selection techniques often lead to different conclusions. In this study, ten models are averaged in Bayesian paradigm to project runoff. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is used to project and identify effect of model uncertainty on future runoff projections. Baseflow separation - a two-digital filter which is also called Eckhardt filter - is used to separate USGS streamflow (total runoff) into two components: baseflow and surface runoff. We use this surface runoff as the a priori runoff when conducting BMA of runoff simulated from the ten RCM models. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate how well RCM multi-model ensembles simulate surface runoff, in a Bayesian framework. Specifically, we investigate and discuss the following questions: How well do ten RCM models ensemble jointly simulate surface runoff by averaging over all the models using BMA, given a priori surface runoff? What are the effects of model uncertainty on surface runoff simulation?

A model ensemble for projecting multi‐decadal coastal cliff retreat during the 21st century

Science.gov (United States)

Limber, Patrick; Barnard, Patrick; Vitousek, Sean; Erikson, Li

2018-01-01

Sea cliff retreat rates are expected to accelerate with rising sea levels during the 21st century. Here we develop an approach for a multi‐model ensemble that efficiently projects time‐averaged sea cliff retreat over multi‐decadal time scales and large (>50 km) spatial scales. The ensemble consists of five simple 1‐D models adapted from the literature that relate sea cliff retreat to wave impacts, sea level rise (SLR), historical cliff behavior, and cross‐shore profile geometry. Ensemble predictions are based on Monte Carlo simulations of each individual model, which account for the uncertainty of model parameters. The consensus of the individual models also weights uncertainty, such that uncertainty is greater when predictions from different models do not agree. A calibrated, but unvalidated, ensemble was applied to the 475 km‐long coastline of Southern California (USA), with 4 SLR scenarios of 0.5, 0.93, 1.5, and 2 m by 2100. Results suggest that future retreat rates could increase relative to mean historical rates by more than two‐fold for the higher SLR scenarios, causing an average total land loss of 19 – 41 m by 2100. However, model uncertainty ranges from +/‐ 5 – 15 m, reflecting the inherent difficulties of projecting cliff retreat over multiple decades. To enhance ensemble performance, future work could include weighting each model by its skill in matching observations in different morphological settings

Application of an integrated model for evaluation and optimization of business projects portfolios

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Camila Costa Dutra

2016-12-01

Full Text Available This work presents an application of an integrated model for the evaluation and probabilistic optimization of projects portfolios, integrating economic, risk and social and environmental impacts analysis. The model uses the Monte Carlo simulation and linear programming techniques for treatment of uncertainties and optimization of projects portfolio. The integrated model was applied in a Brazilian company of electricity distributions. The portfolio of selected projects was related to the expansion of the supply of electricity in a town in the south of the country and the analysis horizon was set in ten years. The aim of the application was to maximize the return for the implementation of a substation and a transmission line in a set of projects, which are diverse in terms of costs, benefits and environmental and social impacts. As a result, the model generates: i an analysis of each individual projects, from budget information (costs and benefits involved and estimation of social and environmental impacts generated by the project and the risks (uncertainties involved and ii the optimum combination of projects that the company should prioritize to ensure the best financial return and lower social and environmental impacts, thus generating an optimal portfolio.

APPLICATION OF AN INTEGRATED MODEL FOR EVALUATION AND OPTIMIZATION OF BUSINESS PROJECTS PORTFOLIOS

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Maria Auxiliadora Cannarozzo Tinoco

2016-12-01

Full Text Available This work presents an application of an integrated model for the evaluation and probabilistic optimization of projects portfolios, integrating economic, risk and social and environmental impacts analysis. The model uses the Monte Carlo simulation and linear programming techniques for treatment of uncertainties and optimization of projects portfolio. The integrated model was applied in a Brazilian company of electricity distributions. The portfolio of selected projects was related to the expansion of the supply of electricity in a town in the south of the country and the analysis horizon was set in ten years. The aim of the application was to maximize the return for the implementation of a substation and a transmission line in a set of projects, which are diverse in terms of costs, benefits and environmental and social impacts. As a result, the model generates: i an analysis of each individual projects, from budget information (costs and benefits involved and estimation of social and environmental impacts generated by the project and the risks (uncertainties involved and ii the optimum combination of projects that the company should prioritize to ensure the best financial return and lower social and environmental impacts, thus generating an optimal portfolio

Goleman-Boyatzis Model of Emotional Intelligence for Dealing with Problems in Project Management

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Peter Vincent Livesey

2017-03-01

Full Text Available As projects grow in size and complexity the sizes of teams needed to manage them also increases. This places greater emphasis on the need for the project manager to develop people management skills, commonly called soft skills, of which emotional intelligence (EI has been recognised as an important component. The objective of this research was to investigate the relevance of the Goleman-Boyatzis model of EI in dealing with the problems in large projects identified via a literature review. To achieve this end, a Delphi study using project managers who had been involved in the management of projects in excess of $500 million was used. The responses from the Delphi panel were analysed and the results showed that the competencies contained in the Goleman-Boyatzis model had a relevance of 95% or greater to the problems presented to the panel. A ranking of the various competencies contained within the model was also developed, some competencies being found to be more important than others. By confirming the importance of emotional intelligence, as described by the model, this research adds to the understanding of the necessary skills needed by a project manager to successfully manage large projects.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEL INITIATION OF PROJECT IN A FORM OF MARKOV CHAIN

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Катерина Вікторівна КОЛЕСНІКОВА

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The model of the initiation of projects which reproduces a fragment of the general scheme of interaction between the main entities in the project initiation phase is created. Determined that the project initiation through communication links between the four main entities: projects team, environment, the project itself and the customer. The result of the initiation of projects in the emerging communications referred to objects in the design phase through consistency requirements of stakeholders and the adoption of the basic concepts of projects, goal-projects, project planning, evaluation requirements of specialization and competence required for the formation of the project team. This Markov chain is part of the control circuit that includes elements such as the temporary organizational structure of the project design, project team, customer, and environment project. It is shown that the Markov model of interaction between project participants in their initiation phase, taking into account the role of a key player in the project ‑ the customer can determine changes of state and generate recommendations for initiating projects. Results of the study can serve as a basis for creating models of control objects that contain its organizational structure and reflect the parametric properties of the system to obtain information needed for decision making to initiate projects

SESAME as a Model Project for Other Regions

Science.gov (United States)

Winick, Herman

2013-03-01

UNESCO became the umbrella organization for SESAME at its Executive Board 164th session, May 2002. The following comments about SESAME were made by this board: ``a quintessential UNESCO project combining capacity building with vital peace-building through science'' and ``a model project for other regions.'' Now that SESAME is well underway, other regions (e.g.; Africa and Central Asia) should be made aware of this progress, and they should be welcomed to join SESAME as a first step in developing similar projects in their region. Students and scientists from other regions should be encouraged to attend SESAME Users' meeting, schools, workshops, etc. where they can learn about synchrotron radiation sources, beamlines, and science. They should be invited to join SESAME scientists in designing and commissioning accelerators and beamlines, gaining relevant experience for their own projects and helping SESAME in the process. Work supported by DOE Office of Basic Energy Sciences

Liquidus Projection and Thermodynamic Modeling of a Sn-Ag-Zn System

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Sinn-wen; Chiu, Wan-ting; Gierlotka, Wojciech; Chang, Jui-shen; Wang, Chao-hong

2017-12-01

Sn-Ag-Zn alloys are promising Pb-free solders. In this study, the Sn-Ag-Zn liquidus projection was determined, and the Sn-Ag-Zn thermodynamic modeling was developed. Various Sn-Ag-Zn alloys were prepared. Their as-cast microstructures and primary solidification phases were examined. The invariant reaction temperatures of the ternary Sn-Ag-Zn system were determined. The liquidus projection of the Sn-Ag-Zn ternary system was constructed. It was found that the Sn-Ag-Zn ternary system has eight primary solidification phases: ɛ2-AgZn3, γ-Ag5Zn8, β-AgZn, ζ-Ag4Sn, (Ag), ɛ1-Ag3Sn, β-(Sn) and (Zn) phases. There are eight ternary invariant reactions, and the liquid + (Ag) = β-AgZn + ζ-Ag4Sn reaction is of the highest temperature at 935.5 K. Thermodynamic modeling of the ternary Sn-Ag-Zn system was also carried out in this study based on the thermodynamic models of the three constituent binary systems and the experimentally determined liquidus projection. The liquidus projection and the isothermal sections are calculated. The calculated and experimentally determined liquidus projections are in good agreement.

Respiratory compensation in projection imaging using a magnification and displacement model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crawford, C.R.; King, K.F.; Ritchie, C.J.; Godwin, J.D.

1996-01-01

Respiratory motion during the collection of computed tomography (CT) projections generates structured artifacts and a loss of resolution that can render the scans unusable. This motion is problematic in scans of those patients who cannot suspend respiration, such as the very young or incubated patients. In this paper, the authors present an algorithm that can be used to reduce motion artifacts in CT scans caused by respiration. An approximate model for the effect of respiration is that the object cross section under interrogation experiences time-varying magnification and displacement along two axes. Using this model an exact filtered backprojection algorithm is derived for the case of parallel projections. The result is extended to generate an approximate reconstruction formula for fan-beam projections. Computer simulations and scans of phantoms on a commercial CT scanner validate the new reconstruction algorithms for parallel and fan-beam projections. Significant reduction in respiratory artifacts is demonstrated clinically when the motion model is satisfied. The method can be applied to projection data used in CT single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT), positron emission tomography (PET), and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)

MODEL RANCANGAN SISTEM INFORMASI PROJECT MONITORING

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Yanti Yanti

2009-10-01

Full Text Available Economic development makes the property industry growing very rapidly. The property development is supported by the development of contractor’s company that conducts property development. Inside the contracting company doing business can not perform their own procurement because of the many items that must be provided. For the purposes of the construction company entered into an agreement with the subcontractor as vendor conduct procurement in accordance with the needs of contracting companies. To simplify the procurement process, generally conducted by a process called a tender / auction. This is done by contracting companies to get quality and price in accordance with the desired budget. The company’s commitment subcontractors as the procurement of goods to be one key to successful contracting company doing business development process. Therefore, the subcontractor companies are required to have a good commitment. Therefore we need a project monitoring system that can monitor business processes running on those sub contractor company. The purpose of this research is to design a project monitoring information system in accordance with company requirements to operational activities more effective and efficient company.Keywords: project monitoring, design model, subcontractor

Decision Model on Financing a Project Using Knowledge about Risk Areas

OpenAIRE

Ioana POPOVICI; Emil SCARLAT; Francesco RIZZO

2011-01-01

The research presents an alternative to the classical method of measuring financial risk in funding a project. The goal of the model described in the paper implies identifying "risky areas" within the financial balance of the project. The model analysis the financial risk behavior studied along four scenarios by varying only the cost of financing source used according to the specific type of funding. The model introduces the time factor into the analysis of financial risk due to the specific ...

NPD project portfolio selection using reinvestment strategy in competitive environment

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Alireza Ghassemi

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This study aims to design a new model for selecting most fitting new product development projects in a pool of projects. To catch the best model, we assume new products will be introduced to the competitive markets. Also, we suppose the revenue yielded by completed projects can be reinvested on implementation of other projects. Other sources of financing are borrowing loans from banks and initial capital of the firm. These limited resources determine most evaluated projects to be performed. Several types of interactions among different projects are considered to make the chosen projects more like a portfolio. In addition, some numerical examples from the real world are provided to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model. These examples show how the particular considerations in the suggested model affect the results.

Advanced Ground Systems Maintenance Physics Models For Diagnostics Project

Science.gov (United States)

Perotti, Jose M.

2015-01-01

The project will use high-fidelity physics models and simulations to simulate real-time operations of cryogenic and systems and calculate the status/health of the systems. The project enables the delivery of system health advisories to ground system operators. The capability will also be used to conduct planning and analysis of cryogenic system operations. This project will develop and implement high-fidelity physics-based modeling techniques tosimulate the real-time operation of cryogenics and other fluids systems and, when compared to thereal-time operation of the actual systems, provide assessment of their state. Physics-modelcalculated measurements (called “pseudo-sensors”) will be compared to the system real-timedata. Comparison results will be utilized to provide systems operators with enhanced monitoring ofsystems' health and status, identify off-nominal trends and diagnose system/component failures.This capability can also be used to conduct planning and analysis of cryogenics and other fluidsystems designs. This capability will be interfaced with the ground operations command andcontrol system as a part of the Advanced Ground Systems Maintenance (AGSM) project to helpassure system availability and mission success. The initial capability will be developed for theLiquid Oxygen (LO2) ground loading systems.

Mathematical Modeling Projects: Success for All Students

Science.gov (United States)

Shelton, Therese

2018-01-01

Mathematical modeling allows flexibility for a project-based experience. We share details of our regular capstone course, successful for virtually 100% of our math majors for almost two decades. Our research-like approach in this course accommodates a variety of student backgrounds and interests, and has produced some award-winning student…

Proposal of a model for evaluation of research and development projects in a public scientific and technological institution: a survey in CNEN

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silva, Eduardo de Assumpcao

2017-01-01

Science and technology are directly related to the development of a country. The research and development projects in CNEN are financed by the direct resources of the budget of the Union and of the Development Agencies such as FINEP and CNPq. In general, project managers believe they can succeed when they complete a project on schedule, budget, and anticipated requirements, which is commonly known as a 'triple constraint' or 'iron triangle'. However, in the review of the literature, other criteria for evaluating success in projects, such as the benefits generated by society, the development of the team's capabilities, future opportunities, new technologies, among others, were verified. In this way, in order to assist the manager in the evaluation of this type of project, the present research carried out a review in the literature aiming to find concepts about success in projects and their evaluation criteria, proposed a model based on the theoretical reference and Importance and use of these criteria with the CNEN specialists, who work directly in the R and D projects of a public ICT in the nuclear area. The results showed that the criteria proposed in the model have a high degree of importance and show a decrease in the degree of utilization, suggesting that the criteria used in the model can help managers in the evaluation of these projects. (author)

Retrospective analysis of the quality of reports by author-suggested and non-author-suggested reviewers in journals operating on open or single-blind peer review models.

Science.gov (United States)

Kowalczuk, Maria K; Dudbridge, Frank; Nanda, Shreeya; Harriman, Stephanie L; Patel, Jigisha; Moylan, Elizabeth C

2015-09-29

To assess whether reports from reviewers recommended by authors show a bias in quality and recommendation for editorial decision, compared with reviewers suggested by other parties, and whether reviewer reports for journals operating on open or single-blind peer review models differ with regard to report quality and reviewer recommendations. Retrospective analysis of the quality of reviewer reports using an established Review Quality Instrument, and analysis of reviewer recommendations and author satisfaction surveys. BioMed Central biology and medical journals. BMC Infectious Diseases and BMC Microbiology are similar in size, rejection rates, impact factors and editorial processes, but the former uses open peer review while the latter uses single-blind peer review. The Journal of Inflammation has operated under both peer review models. Two hundred reviewer reports submitted to BMC Infectious Diseases, 200 reviewer reports submitted to BMC Microbiology and 400 reviewer reports submitted to the Journal of Inflammation. For each journal, author-suggested reviewers provided reports of comparable quality to non-author-suggested reviewers, but were significantly more likely to recommend acceptance, irrespective of the peer review model (previewer reports measured by the Review Quality Instrument was 5% higher than for BMC Microbiology (p=0.042). For the Journal of Inflammation, the quality of reports was the same irrespective of the peer review model used. Reviewers suggested by authors provide reports of comparable quality to non-author-suggested reviewers, but are significantly more likely to recommend acceptance. Open peer review reports for BMC Infectious Diseases were of higher quality than single-blind reports for BMC Microbiology. There was no difference in quality of peer review in the Journal of Inflammation under open peer review compared with single blind. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a

The global sustainability project and the LLNL China energy systems model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harris, N; Lamont, A; Stewart, J; Woodrow, C.

1999-01-01

The sustainability of our modern way of life is becoming a major concern of both our domestic and international policy. The Rio conference on the environment and the recent Kyoto conference on global climate change are two indications of the importance of solving global environmental problem. Energy is a key component in global sustainability since obtaining and using it has major environmental effects. If our energy systems are to be sustainable in the long run, they must be structured using technologies that have a minimal impact on our environment and resources. At the same time, they must meet practical economic requirements: they must be reasonably economical, they must meet the needs of society and they must be tailored to the resources that are available in a particular region or country. Because economic considerations and government policies both determine the development of the energy system, economic and systems modeling can help us better understand ways that new technologies and policies can be used to obtain a more sustainable system. The Global Sustainability Project has developed both economic modeling software and models to help us better understand these issues and has applied them to the analysis of energy and environmental problems in China. In the past year, the models and data developed by the project have been used to support other projects investigating the interaction of technologies and the environment. The project this year has focused on software development to improve our modeling tools and on the refinement and application of the China Energy System model. The major thrust of the software development has been improvements in the METANet economic software system. We have modified its solution algorithm to improve speed and accuracy of the solutions and to make it compatible with the SuperCode modeling system. It is planned to eventually merge the two systems to take advantage of the faster, more flexible solution algorithms of Super

Rethinking Project Management in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Svejvig, Per

2012-01-01

. The chapter argues for a rethinking process due to pervasiveness and complexity in the contemporary project environment where rethinking is needed in order to stay competitive. The suggested approach for the rethinking project management is a framing process where body of ideas is established......Projects are everywhere across different sectors, industries and countries. Project management is no longer a sub-discipline of engineering and other rather technical disciplines but is also used for many other purposes. Even though practice has changed dramatically over the years, the models...... and methodologies for project management has been fairly static and has therefore received substantial criticism for a lack of relevance to practice. Several scholars have therefore started to think more widely about projects and project management conceptualized as rethinking project management. However this theme...

The future of coastal upwelling in the Humboldt current from model projections

Science.gov (United States)

Oyarzún, Damián; Brierley, Chris M.

2018-03-01

The Humboldt coastal upwelling system in the eastern South Pacific ocean is one of the most productive marine ecosystems in the world. A weakening of the upwelling activity could lead to severe ecological impacts. As coastal upwelling in eastern boundary systems is mainly driven by wind stress, most studies so far have analysed wind patterns change through the 20th and 21st Centuries in order to understand and project the phenomenon under specific forcing scenarios. Mixed results have been reported, and analyses from General Circulation Models have suggested even contradictory trends of wind stress for the Humboldt system. In this study, we analyse the ocean upwelling directly in 13 models contributing to phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) in both the historical simulations and an extreme climate change scenario (RCP8.5). The upwelling is represented by the upward ocean mass flux, a newly-included variable that represents the vertical water transport. Additionally, wind stress, ocean stratification, Ekman layer depth and thermocline depth were also analysed to explore their interactions with coastal upwelling throughout the period studied. The seasonal cycle of coastal upwelling differs between the Northern and Southern Humboldt areas. At lower latitudes, the upwelling season spans most of the autumn, winter and spring. However, in the Southern Humboldt area the upwelling season takes place in spring and the summertime with downwelling activity in winter. This persists throughout the Historical and RCP8.5 simulations. For both the Northern and Southern Humboldt areas an increasing wind stress is projected. However, different trends of upwelling intensity are observed away from the sea surface. Whereas wind stress will continue controlling the decadal variability of coastal upwelling on the whole ocean column analysed (surface to 300 m depth), an increasing disconnect with upwelling intensity is projected below 100 m depth throughout the 21

Source term modelling parameters for Project-90

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shaw, W.; Smith, G.; Worgan, K.; Hodgkinson, D.; Andersson, K.

1992-04-01

This document summarises the input parameters for the source term modelling within Project-90. In the first place, the parameters relate to the CALIBRE near-field code which was developed for the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate's (SKI) Project-90 reference repository safety assessment exercise. An attempt has been made to give best estimate values and, where appropriate, a range which is related to variations around base cases. It should be noted that the data sets contain amendments to those considered by KBS-3. In particular, a completely new set of inventory data has been incorporated. The information given here does not constitute a complete set of parameter values for all parts of the CALIBRE code. Rather, it gives the key parameter values which are used in the constituent models within CALIBRE and the associated studies. For example, the inventory data acts as an input to the calculation of the oxidant production rates, which influence the generation of a redox front. The same data is also an initial value data set for the radionuclide migration component of CALIBRE. Similarly, the geometrical parameters of the near-field are common to both sub-models. The principal common parameters are gathered here for ease of reference and avoidance of unnecessary duplication and transcription errors. (au)

The Copenhagen Traffic Model and its Application in the Metro City Ring Project

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vuk, Goran; Overgård, Christian Hansen; Fox, J.

2009-01-01

In June 2007, the Danish Parliament passed an act to finance the construction of the Metro City Ring in Copenhagen. The assessment project is based on the passenger patronage forecasts for 2015 from the Copenhagen traffic model. In this paper we show how the model forecasts for this particular...... infrastructure project can be explained through detailed knowledge of model structure and model validation....

Project as a System and its Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiří Skalický

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The contribution aims to describe project as a system, to define project control goal and strategy, control variables and their relationships. Three common control variables represented by the project triangle, are extended by two other important variables – project risk and quality. The control system consists of two components: social one – project manager and project team – and technical one – project dynamic simulation model as a decision making support of project manager in project milestones. In the project planning phase, the project baseline with planned controlled variables is created. In milestones after project launch, the actual values of these variables are measured. If the actual values deviate from planned ones, corrective actions are proposed and new baseline for the following control interval is created. Project plan takes into account the actual project progress and optimum corrective actions are determined by simulation, respecting control strategy and availability of resources. The contribution presents list of references to articles dealing with project as a system and its simulation. In most cases, they refer to the project control using the Earned Value Management method and its derivatives. Using of the dynamic simulation model for project monitoring and control, suggested in this contribution, presents a novel approach. The proposed model can serve as departure point to future research of authors and for development of appropriate and applicable tool.

Growth and project finance in the least developed countries

OpenAIRE

Lisbeth F. la Cour; Jennifer Müller

2014-01-01

This article examines the effects of project finance on economic growth in the least developed countries (LDC). Inspired by the neoclassical growth model we set up an econometric model to estimate the effects of project finance for a sample consisting of 38 of the least developed countries using data from the period 1994-2007. The results of our study suggest, that project finance has a significant positive effect on economic growth and therefore constitute an important source of ...

Building Context with Tumor Growth Modeling Projects in Differential Equations

Science.gov (United States)

Beier, Julie C.; Gevertz, Jana L.; Howard, Keith E.

2015-01-01

The use of modeling projects serves to integrate, reinforce, and extend student knowledge. Here we present two projects related to tumor growth appropriate for a first course in differential equations. They illustrate the use of problem-based learning to reinforce and extend course content via a writing or research experience. Here we discuss…

Model projections of atmospheric steering of Sandy-like superstorms.

Science.gov (United States)

Barnes, Elizabeth A; Polvani, Lorenzo M; Sobel, Adam H

2013-09-17

Superstorm Sandy ravaged the eastern seaboard of the United States, costing a great number of lives and billions of dollars in damage. Whether events like Sandy will become more frequent as anthropogenic greenhouse gases continue to increase remains an open and complex question. Here we consider whether the persistent large-scale atmospheric patterns that steered Sandy onto the coast will become more frequent in the coming decades. Using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 multimodel ensemble, we demonstrate that climate models consistently project a decrease in the frequency and persistence of the westward flow that led to Sandy's unprecedented track, implying that future atmospheric conditions are less likely than at present to propel storms westward into the coast.

Project control - the next generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iorii, V.F.; McKinnon, B.L.

1993-01-01

The Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP) is the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) second largest Major System Acquisition Project. We have developed an integrated planning and control system (called PACS) that we believe represents the 'Next Generation' in project control. PACS integrates technical scope, cost, and schedule information for over 50 participating organizations and produces performances measurement reports for science and engineering managers at all levels. Our 'Next Generation' project control too, PACS, has been found to be in compliance with the new DOE Project Control System Guidelines. Additionally, the nuclear utility oversight group of the Edison Electric Institute has suggested PACS be used as a model for other civilian radioactive waste management projects. A 'Next Generation' project control tool will be necessary to do science in the 21st century

Modeling Change in Project Duration and Completion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wiltshire, Travis; Butner, Jonathan E.; Pirtle, Zachary

2017-01-01

In complex work domains and organizations, understanding scheduleing dynamics can ensure objectives are reached and delays are mitigated. In the current paper, we examine the scheduling dynamics for NASA’s Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1) activities. For this examination, we specifically modeled...... simultaneous change in percent complete and estimated duration for a given project as they were included in monthly reports over time. In short, we utilized latent change score mixture modeling to extract the attractor dynamics within the scheduling data. We found three primarily patterns: an attractor at low...

Projecting future expansion of invasive species: comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Mainali, Kumar P; Warren, Dan L; Dhileepan, Kunjithapatham; McConnachie, Andrew; Strathie, Lorraine; Hassan, Gul; Karki, Debendra; Shrestha, Bharat B; Parmesan, Camille

2015-12-01

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae) with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (i) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (ii) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (iii) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species' native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e., into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g., boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post hoc test conducted on a new Parthenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our 'best' model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for parthenium

How to Gain Value from a Project Management Model: Case Study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Riis, Eva; Eskerod, Pernille

2010-01-01

  Recent research has shown that PM models can be a powerful creator of value for companies. This paper extends this research aiming at gaining a deeper understanding of the preconditions that must exist for harvesting the values of a common frame of reference for project management. It reports...... findings from in-depth investigations in a Danish industrial concern that considers its PM model as the core of its project activities.  ...

THE MODEL OF EXPERT SYSTEM FOR SCIENTIFIC PROJECTS EVALUATION IN HIGHER EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Олександр Михайлович ВОЗНИЙ

2015-05-01

Full Text Available There have been proposed the model of the expert system for the assessment of research projects in higher educational institutions, based on estimates of probability. It allows to rank alternative projects and scenarios. The model is implemented through the software "Small expert system." The principle of calculating the probability of approval of research projects, which form the basis of the expert system, is based on Bayes' theorem. Expert system calculates the probability of approval of research projects by Ministry of Science and Education on the basis of the responses to questions about the content of the request for the execution of research projects. Questions are formed on the basis of the criteria by which experts of state authorities evaluate scientific research projects.

Cacao Intensification in Sulawesi: A Green Prosperity Model Project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moriarty, K.; Elchinger, M.; Hill, G.; Katz, J.; Barnett, J.

2014-09-01

NREL conducted eight model projects for Millennium Challenge Corporation's (MCC) Compact with Indonesia. Green Prosperity, the largest project of the Compact, seeks to address critical constraints to economic growth while supporting the Government of Indonesia's commitment to a more sustainable, less carbon-intensive future. This study evaluates techniques to improve cacao farming in Sulawesi Indonesia with an emphasis on Farmer Field Schools and Cocoa Development Centers to educate farmers and for train the trainer programs. The study estimates the economic viability of cacao farming if smallholder implement techniques to increase yield as well as social and environmental impacts of the project.

The EV Project Price/Fee Models for Publicly Accessible Charging

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Francfort, James Edward [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2015-12-01

As plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are introduced to the market place and gain more consumer acceptance, it is important for a robust and self-sustaining non-residential infrastructure of electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) to be established to meet the needs of PEV drivers. While federal and state financial incentives for electric vehicles were in place and remain so today, future incentives are uncertain. In order for PEVs to achieve mainstream adoption, an adequate and sustainable commercial or publicly available charging infrastructure was pursued by The EV Project to encourage increased PEV purchases by alleviating range anxiety, and by removing adoption barriers for consumers without a dedicated overnight parking location to provide a home-base charger. This included determining a business model for publicly accessible charge infrastructure. To establish this business model, The EV Project team created a fee for charge model along with various ancillary offerings related to charging that would generate revenue. And after placing chargers in the field the Project rolled out this fee structure.

Microcomputer model for an analysis of the financial feasibility of a mining project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ciruelos, J.; Duchene, M.

1983-01-01

The model presented permits a simulation of the predicted profitability of a mining project at the stage of feasibility studies by making use of a simple individual computer, the Apple II. The model presented can be used to treat the following three areas: definition of the mode of financing the project and calculation of the financial flows which make it possible to evaluate the profitability of this project; analysis of sensitivity, which makes it possible to determine the most critical variables for the future of the project; analysis of the risk [fr

Project Photofly: New 3d Modeling Online Web Service (case Studies and Assessments)

Science.gov (United States)

Abate, D.; Furini, G.; Migliori, S.; Pierattini, S.

2011-09-01

During summer 2010, Autodesk has released a still ongoing project called Project Photofly, freely downloadable from AutodeskLab web site until August 1 2011. Project Photofly based on computer-vision and photogrammetric principles, exploiting the power of cloud computing, is a web service able to convert collections of photographs into 3D models. Aim of our research was to evaluate the Project Photofly, through different case studies, for 3D modeling of cultural heritage monuments and objects, mostly to identify for which goals and objects it is suitable. The automatic approach will be mainly analyzed.

Projection of future transport energy demand of Thailand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Limanond, Thirayoot; Jomnonkwao, Sajjakaj; Srikaew, Artit

2011-01-01

The objective of this study is to project transport energy consumption in Thailand for the next 20 years. The study develops log-linear regression models and feed-forward neural network models, using the as independent variables national gross domestic product, population and the numbers of registered vehicles. The models are based on 20-year historical data between years 1989 and 2008, and are used to project the trends in future transport energy consumption for years 2010-2030. The final log-linear models include only gross domestic product, since all independent variables are highly correlated. It was found that the projection results of this study were in the range of 54.84-59.05 million tonnes of oil equivalent, 2.5 times the 2008 consumption. The projected demand is only 61-65% of that predicted in a previous study, which used the LEAP model. This major discrepancy in transport energy demand projections suggests that projects related to this key indicator should take into account alternative projections, because these numbers greatly affect plans, policies and budget allocation for national energy management. - Research highlights: → Thailand transport energy consumption would increase to 54.4-59.1 MTOE in Year 2030. → The log-linear models yield a slightly higher projection than the ANN models. → The elasticity of transport energy demand with respect to GDP is 0.995.

Projection of future transport energy demand of Thailand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Limanond, Thirayoot, E-mail: tlimanond@yahoo.co [School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand); Jomnonkwao, Sajjakaj [School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand); Srikaew, Artit [School of Electrical Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand)

2011-05-15

The objective of this study is to project transport energy consumption in Thailand for the next 20 years. The study develops log-linear regression models and feed-forward neural network models, using the as independent variables national gross domestic product, population and the numbers of registered vehicles. The models are based on 20-year historical data between years 1989 and 2008, and are used to project the trends in future transport energy consumption for years 2010-2030. The final log-linear models include only gross domestic product, since all independent variables are highly correlated. It was found that the projection results of this study were in the range of 54.84-59.05 million tonnes of oil equivalent, 2.5 times the 2008 consumption. The projected demand is only 61-65% of that predicted in a previous study, which used the LEAP model. This major discrepancy in transport energy demand projections suggests that projects related to this key indicator should take into account alternative projections, because these numbers greatly affect plans, policies and budget allocation for national energy management. - Research highlights: {yields} Thailand transport energy consumption would increase to 54.4-59.1 MTOE in Year 2030. {yields} The log-linear models yield a slightly higher projection than the ANN models. {yields} The elasticity of transport energy demand with respect to GDP is 0.995.

[Reconstruction and measurement of a digital dental model using grating projection and reverse engineering].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhenzhen, Wang; Yi, Lu; Jun, Song; Jun, Chen; Qin, Zhou

2015-02-01

This work lays the foundation for establishing a digital model database with normal occlusion. A digital dental cast is acquired through grating projection, and model features are measured through reverse engineering. The grating projection system controlled by a computer was projected onto the surface of a normal dental model. Three-dimensional contour data were obtained through multi-angle shooting. A three-dimensional model was constructed, and the model features were analyzed by using reverse engineering. The digital model was compared with the plaster model to determine the accuracy of the measurement system. The structure of three-dimensional reconstruction model was clear. The digital models of two measurements exhibited no significant difference (P > 0.05). When digital and plaster models were measured, we found that the crown length and arch width were not statistically different (P > 0.05), whereas the difference between the crown width and arch length was statistically significant (P model by using the grating projection technique and reverse engineering can be used for dental model measurement in clinic al and scientific research and can provide a scientific method for establishing a digital model database with normal occlusion.

Problems of angular momentum projection in nuclear physics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sorensen, R A [Carnegie-Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, Pa. (USA)

1977-05-09

In nuclear models approximate wave functions are often used which do not have sharp angular momentum as required of the exact wave functions. It seems obvious that model wave functions of this type should be improved by projection onto states of good angular momentum. It is not the purpose of this paper to discuss the technical difficulties of projection (which can be formidable for many particle systems), but rather to present in an elementary way certain fundamental ambiguities in the use of projection. An application to high spin states near the yrast line is suggested.

Focal relationships and the environment of project marketing. A literature review with suggestions for practitioners and future research

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skaates, Maria Anne; Tikkanen, Henrikki

2000-01-01

of the review is upon the connection between focal relationships and the wider environment in which project marketing and systems selling takes place. First, several common definitions of projects and project marketing are presented and discussed. Second, the implications of three specific features of project......Project marketing is an important mode of business-to-business marketing today. This paper assesses recent project marketing contributions, including predominantly those of members of the (mainly European) International Network for Project Marketing and Systems Selling (INPM). The emphasis...... business - discontinuity, uniqueness, and complexity - for the focal relationship and the broader marketing environment are considered at the level of multiple projects. Third, three overlapping types of postures that project-selling firms can adopt in relation to their focal relationships...

Modelling Project Feasibility Robustness by Use of Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Moshøj, Claus Rehfeld; Leleur, Steen

1998-01-01

, SEAM secures a consistent inclusion of actual scenario elements in the quantitative impact modelling and facilitates a transparent project feasibility robustness analysis. SEAM is implemented as part of a decision support system with a toolbox structure applicable to different types of transport...

Radarsat Antarctic Mapping Project Digital Elevation Model, Version 2

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The high-resolution Radarsat Antarctic Mapping Project (RAMP) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) combines topographic data from a variety of sources to provide consistent...

A whole stand basal area projection model for Appalachian hardwoods

Science.gov (United States)

John R. Brooks; Lichun Jiang; Matthew Perkowski; Benktesh Sharma

2008-01-01

Two whole-stand basal area projection models were developed for Appalachian hardwood stands. The proposed equations are an algebraic difference projection form based on existing basal area and the change in age, trees per acre, and/or dominant height. Average equation error was less than 10 square feet per acre and residuals exhibited no irregular trends.

The EGS Collab Project: Stimulation Investigations for Geothermal Modeling Analysis and Validation

Science.gov (United States)

Blankenship, D.; Kneafsey, T. J.

2017-12-01

The US DOE's EGS Collab project team is establishing a suite of intermediate-scale ( 10-20 m) field test beds for coupled stimulation and interwell flow tests. The multiple national laboratory and university team is designing the tests to compare measured data to models to improve measurement and modeling toolsets available for use in field sites and investigations such as DOE's Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) Project. Our tests will be well-controlled, in situexperiments focused on rock fracture behavior, seismicity, and permeability enhancement. Pre- and post-test modeling will allow for model prediction and validation. High-quality, high-resolution geophysical and other fracture characterization data will be collected, analyzed, and compared with models and field observations to further elucidate the basic relationships between stress, induced seismicity, and permeability enhancement. Coring through the stimulated zone after tests will provide fracture characteristics that can be compared to monitoring data and model predictions. We will also observe and quantify other key governing parameters that impact permeability, and attempt to understand how these parameters might change throughout the development and operation of an Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) project with the goal of enabling commercial viability of EGS. The Collab team will perform three major experiments over the three-year project duration. Experiment 1, intended to investigate hydraulic fracturing, will be performed in the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) at 4,850 feet depth and will build on kISMET Project findings. Experiment 2 will be designed to investigate hydroshearing. Experiment 3 will investigate changes in fracturing strategies and will be further specified as the project proceeds. The tests will provide quantitative insights into the nature of stimulation (e.g., hydraulic fracturing, hydroshearing, mixed-mode fracturing, thermal fracturing

Projection pursuit water quality evaluation model based on chicken swam algorithm

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Zhe

2018-03-01

In view of the uncertainty and ambiguity of each index in water quality evaluation, in order to solve the incompatibility of evaluation results of individual water quality indexes, a projection pursuit model based on chicken swam algorithm is proposed. The projection index function which can reflect the water quality condition is constructed, the chicken group algorithm (CSA) is introduced, the projection index function is optimized, the best projection direction of the projection index function is sought, and the best projection value is obtained to realize the water quality evaluation. The comparison between this method and other methods shows that it is reasonable and feasible to provide decision-making basis for water pollution control in the basin.

CRAUDFUNDING AS A PERSPECTIVE MODEL OF FINANCING BUSINESS IDEAS AND PROJECTS

OpenAIRE

Vyacheslav Riznyk; Nadiya Riznyk

2018-01-01

The subject of research is crowdfunding as an alternative model of attracting financing for the implementation business ideas and projects based on the use of crowdfunding Internet platforms. The purpose of the article is to clarify the possibilities of crowdfunding as a new financial instrument and a promising source of funding. The aim of the article is to consider crowdfunding as an alternative model for financing author's business ideas and projects, to analyze the main types and mo...

Application of Markovian model to school enrolment projection ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Application of Markovian model to school enrolment projection process. VU Ekhosuehi, AA Osagiede. Abstract. No Abstract. Global Journal of Mathematical Sciences Vol. 5(1) 2006: 9-16. Full Text: EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT.

Research projects and capacity building | Breen | Water SA

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... by capacity building in the context of research projects. Based on this interpretation, reasonable and unreasonable expectations with respect to the extent to which capacity building can be achieved within a given project duration are discussed. A model is suggested, which would improve understanding and delivery and ...

Model Diagnostics for the Department of Energy's Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) Project

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, B.

2015-12-01

In 2014, eight Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories, four academic institutions, one company, and the National Centre for Atmospheric Research combined forces in a project called Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) with the goal to speed Earth system model development for climate and energy. Over the planned 10-year span, the project will conduct simulations and modeling on DOE's most powerful high-performance computing systems at Oak Ridge, Argonne, and Lawrence Berkeley Leadership Compute Facilities. A key component of the ACME project is the development of an interactive test bed for the advanced Earth system model. Its execution infrastructure will accelerate model development and testing cycles. The ACME Workflow Group is leading the efforts to automate labor-intensive tasks, provide intelligent support for complex tasks and reduce duplication of effort through collaboration support. As part of this new workflow environment, we have created a diagnostic, metric, and intercomparison Python framework, called UVCMetrics, to aid in the testing-to-production execution of the ACME model. The framework exploits similarities among different diagnostics to compactly support diagnosis of new models. It presently focuses on atmosphere and land but is designed to support ocean and sea ice model components as well. This framework is built on top of the existing open-source software framework known as the Ultrascale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UV-CDAT). Because of its flexible framework design, scientists and modelers now can generate thousands of possible diagnostic outputs. These diagnostics can compare model runs, compare model vs. observation, or simply verify a model is physically realistic. Additional diagnostics are easily integrated into the framework, and our users have already added several. Diagnostics can be generated, viewed, and manipulated from the UV-CDAT graphical user interface, Python command line scripts and programs

Compilation Of An Econometric Human Resource Efficiency Model For Project Management Best Practices

OpenAIRE

G. van Zyl; P. Venier

2006-01-01

The aim of the paper is to introduce a human resource efficiency model in order to rank the most important human resource driving forces for project management best practices. The results of the model will demonstrate how the human resource component of project management acts as the primary function to enhance organizational performance, codified through improved logical end-state programmes, work ethics and process contributions. Given the hypothesis that project management best practices i...

Reducing Spread in Climate Model Projections of a September Ice-Free Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Jiping; Song, Mirong; Horton, Radley M.; Hu, Yongyun

2013-01-01

This paper addresses the specter of a September ice-free Arctic in the 21st century using newly available simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that large spread in the projected timing of the September ice-free Arctic in 30 CMIP5 models is associated at least as much with different atmospheric model components as with initial conditions. Here we reduce the spread in the timing of an ice-free state using two different approaches for the 30 CMIP5 models: (i) model selection based on the ability to reproduce the observed sea ice climatology and variability since 1979 and (ii) constrained estimation based on the strong and persistent relationship between present and future sea ice conditions. Results from the two approaches show good agreement. Under a high-emission scenario both approaches project that September ice extent will drop to approx. 1.7 million sq km in the mid 2040s and reach the ice-free state (defined as 1 million sq km) in 2054-2058. Under a medium-mitigation scenario, both approaches project a decrease to approx.1.7 million sq km in the early 2060s, followed by a leveling off in the ice extent.

Managing wildland fires: integrating weather models into fire projections

Science.gov (United States)

Anne M. Rosenthal; Francis Fujioka

2004-01-01

Flames from the Old Fire sweep through lands north of San Bernardino during late fall of 2003. Like many Southern California fires, the Old Fire consumed susceptible forests at the urban-wildland interface and spread to nearby city neighborhoods. By incorporating weather models into fire perimeter projections, scientist Francis Fujioka is improving fire modeling as a...

Mentoring for junior medical faculty: Existing models and suggestions for low-resource settings.

Science.gov (United States)

Menon, Vikas; Muraleedharan, Aparna; Bhat, Ballambhattu Vishnu

2016-02-01

Globally, there is increasing recognition about the positive benefits and impact of mentoring on faculty retention rates, career satisfaction and scholarly output. However, emphasis on research and practice of mentoring is comparatively meagre in low and middle income countries. In this commentary, we critically examine two existing models of mentorship for medical faculty and offer few suggestions for an integrated hybrid model that can be adapted for use in low resource settings. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Implementing parallel spreadsheet models for health policy decisions: The impact of unintentional errors on model projections.

Science.gov (United States)

Bailey, Stephanie L; Bono, Rose S; Nash, Denis; Kimmel, April D

2018-01-01

Spreadsheet software is increasingly used to implement systems science models informing health policy decisions, both in academia and in practice where technical capacity may be limited. However, spreadsheet models are prone to unintentional errors that may not always be identified using standard error-checking techniques. Our objective was to illustrate, through a methodologic case study analysis, the impact of unintentional errors on model projections by implementing parallel model versions. We leveraged a real-world need to revise an existing spreadsheet model designed to inform HIV policy. We developed three parallel versions of a previously validated spreadsheet-based model; versions differed by the spreadsheet cell-referencing approach (named single cells; column/row references; named matrices). For each version, we implemented three model revisions (re-entry into care; guideline-concordant treatment initiation; immediate treatment initiation). After standard error-checking, we identified unintentional errors by comparing model output across the three versions. Concordant model output across all versions was considered error-free. We calculated the impact of unintentional errors as the percentage difference in model projections between model versions with and without unintentional errors, using +/-5% difference to define a material error. We identified 58 original and 4,331 propagated unintentional errors across all model versions and revisions. Over 40% (24/58) of original unintentional errors occurred in the column/row reference model version; most (23/24) were due to incorrect cell references. Overall, >20% of model spreadsheet cells had material unintentional errors. When examining error impact along the HIV care continuum, the percentage difference between versions with and without unintentional errors ranged from +3% to +16% (named single cells), +26% to +76% (column/row reference), and 0% (named matrices). Standard error-checking techniques may not

3d-modelling workflows for trans-nationally shared geological models - first approaches from the project GeoMol

Science.gov (United States)

Rupf, Isabel

2013-04-01

To meet the EU's ambitious targets for carbon emission reduction, renewable energy production has to be strongly upgraded and made more efficient for grid energy storage. Alpine Foreland Basins feature a unique geological inventory which can contribute substantially to tackle these challenges. They offer a geothermal potential and storage capacity for compressed air, as well as space for underground storage of CO2. Exploiting these natural subsurface resources will strongly compete with existing oil and gas claims and groundwater issues. The project GeoMol will provide consistent 3-dimensional subsurface information about the Alpine Foreland Basins based on a holistic and transnational approach. Core of the project GeoMol is a geological framework model for the entire Northern Molasse Basin, complemented by five detailed models in pilot areas, also in the Po Basin, which are dedicated to specific questions of subsurface use. The models will consist of up to 13 litho-stratigraphic horizons ranging from the Cenozoic basin fill down to Mesozoic and late Paleozoic sedimentary rocks and the crystalline basement. More than 5000 wells and 28 000 km seismic lines serve as input data sets for the geological subsurface model. The data have multiple sources and various acquisition dates, and their interpretations have gone through several paradigm changes. Therefore, it is necessary to standardize the data with regards to technical parameters and content prior to further analysis (cf. Capar et al. 2013, EGU2013-5349). Each partner will build its own geological subsurface model with different software solutions for seismic interpretation and 3d-modelling. Therefore, 3d-modelling follows different software- and partner-specific workflows. One of the main challenges of the project is to ensure a seamlessly fitting framework model. It is necessary to define several milestones for cross border checks during the whole modelling process. Hence, the main input data set of the

Measurement Rounding Errors in an Assessment Model of Project Led Engineering Education

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francisco Moreira

2009-11-01

Full Text Available This paper analyzes the rounding errors that occur in the assessment of an interdisciplinary Project-Led Education (PLE process implemented in the Integrated Master degree on Industrial Management and Engineering (IME at University of Minho. PLE is an innovative educational methodology which makes use of active learning, promoting higher levels of motivation and students’ autonomy. The assessment model is based on multiple evaluation components with different weights. Each component can be evaluated by several teachers involved in different Project Supporting Courses (PSC. This model can be affected by different types of errors, namely: (1 rounding errors, and (2 non-uniform criteria of rounding the grades. A rigorous analysis of the assessment model was made and the rounding errors involved on each project component were characterized and measured. This resulted in a global maximum error of 0.308 on the individual student project grade, in a 0 to 100 scale. This analysis intended to improve not only the reliability of the assessment results, but also teachers’ awareness of this problem. Recommendations are also made in order to improve the assessment model and reduce the rounding errors as much as possible.

Atomic Data and Modelling for Fusion: the ADAS Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Summers, H. P.; O'Mullane, M. G.

2011-01-01

The paper is an update on the Atomic Data and Analysis Structure, ADAS, since ICAM-DATA06 and a forward look to its evolution in the next five years. ADAS is an international project supporting principally magnetic confinement fusion research. It has participant laboratories throughout the world, including ITER and all its partner countries. In parallel with ADAS, the ADAS-EU Project provides enhanced support for fusion research at Associated Laboratories and Universities in Europe and ITER. OPEN-ADAS, sponsored jointly by the ADAS Project and IAEA, is the mechanism for open access to principal ADAS atomic data classes and facilitating software for their use. EXTENDED-ADAS comprises a variety of special, integrated application software, beyond the purely atomic bounds of ADAS, tuned closely to specific diagnostic analyses and plasma models.The current scientific content and scope of these various ADAS and ADAS related activities are briefly reviewed. These span a number of themes including heavy element spectroscopy and models, charge exchange spectroscopy, beam emission spectroscopy and special features which provide a broad baseline of atomic modelling and support. Emphasis will be placed on 'lifting the fundamental data baseline'--a principal ADAS task for the next few years. This will include discussion of ADAS and ADAS-EU coordinated and shared activities and some of the methods being exploited.

City of Austin: Green habitat learning project. A green builder model home project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1995-12-01

The purpose of the Year 14 UCETF project was to design and construct a residential structure that could serve as a demonstration facility, training site, and testing and monitoring laboratory for issues related to the implementation of sustainable building practices and materials. The Model Home Project builds on the previous and existing efforts, partially funded by the UCETF, of the City of Austin Green Builder Program to incorporate sustainable building practices into mainstream building activities. The Green Builder Program uses the term {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} as a synonym for sustainability. In the research and analysis that was completed for our earlier reports in Years 12 and 13, we characterized specific elements that we associate with sustainability and, thus, green building. In general, we refer to a modified life cycle assessment to ascertain if {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} building options reflect similar positive cyclical patterns found in nature (i.e. recyclability, recycled content, renewable resources, etc.). We additionally consider economic, human health and synergistic ecological impacts associated with our building choices and characterize the best choices as {open_quotes}green.{close_quotes} Our ultimate goal is to identify and use those {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} materials and processes that provide well for us now and do not compromise similar benefits for future generations. The original partnership developed for this project shifted during the year from a project stressing advanced (many prototypical) {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} building materials and techniques in a research and demonstration context, to off-the-shelf but underutilized {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} materials in the practical social context of using {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} technologies for low income housing. That project, discussed in this report, is called the Green Habitat Learning Project.

Integrating Economic Models with Biophysical Models in the Willamette Water 2100 Project

Science.gov (United States)

Jaeger, W. K.; Plantinga, A.

2013-12-01

This paper highlights the human system modeling components for Willamette Water 2100, a comprehensive, highly integrated study of hydrological, ecological, and human factors affecting water scarcity in the Willamette River Basin (WRB). The project is developing a spatiotemporal simulation model to predict future trajectories of water scarcity, and to evaluate mitigation policies. Economic models of land use and water use are the main human system models in WW2100. Water scarcity depends on both supply and demand for water, and varies greatly across time and space (Jaeger et al., 2013). Thus, the locations of human water use can have enormous influence on where and when water is used, and hence where water scarcity may arise. Modeling the locations of human uses of water (e.g., urban versus agricultural) as well as human values and choices, are the principal quantitative ways that social science can contribute to research of this kind. Our models are empirically-based models of human resource allocation. Each model reflects private behavior (choices by households, farms, firms), institutions (property rights, laws, markets, regulations), public infrastructure (dams, canals, highways), and also 'external drivers' that influence the local economy (migration, population growth, national markets and policies). This paper describes the main model components, emphasizing similarities between human and biophysical components of the overall project, and the model's linkages and feedbacks relevant to our predictions of changes in water scarcity between now and 2100. Results presented include new insights from individual model components as well as available results from the integrated system model. Issues include water scarcity and water quality (temperature) for out-of-stream and instream uses, the impact of urban expansion on water use and potential flood damage. Changes in timing and variability of spring discharge with climate change, as well as changes in human uses of

Economic modelling of diagnostic and treatment pathways in National Institute for Health and Care Excellence clinical guidelines: the Modelling Algorithm Pathways in Guidelines (MAPGuide) project.

Science.gov (United States)

Lord, J; Willis, S; Eatock, J; Tappenden, P; Trapero-Bertran, M; Miners, A; Crossan, C; Westby, M; Anagnostou, A; Taylor, S; Mavranezouli, I; Wonderling, D; Alderson, P; Ruiz, F

2013-12-01

National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) clinical guidelines (CGs) make recommendations across large, complex care pathways for broad groups of patients. They rely on cost-effectiveness evidence from the literature and from new analyses for selected high-priority topics. An alternative approach would be to build a model of the full care pathway and to use this as a platform to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of multiple topics across the guideline recommendations. In this project we aimed to test the feasibility of building full guideline models for NICE guidelines and to assess if, and how, such models can be used as a basis for cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). A 'best evidence' approach was used to inform the model parameters. Data were drawn from the guideline documentation, advice from clinical experts and rapid literature reviews on selected topics. Where possible we relied on good-quality, recent UK systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Two published NICE guidelines were used as case studies: prostate cancer and atrial fibrillation (AF). Discrete event simulation (DES) was used to model the recommended care pathways and to estimate consequent costs and outcomes. For each guideline, researchers not involved in model development collated a shortlist of topics suggested for updating. The modelling teams then attempted to evaluate options related to these topics. Cost-effectiveness results were compared with opinions about the importance of the topics elicited in a survey of stakeholders. The modelling teams developed simulations of the guideline pathways and disease processes. Development took longer and required more analytical time than anticipated. Estimates of cost-effectiveness were produced for six of the nine prostate cancer topics considered, and for five of eight AF topics. The other topics were not evaluated owing to lack of data or time constraints. The modelled results suggested 'economic priorities' for an update that differed from

Applying a Hybrid MCDM Model for Six Sigma Project Selection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fu-Kwun Wang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Six Sigma is a project-driven methodology; the projects that provide the maximum financial benefits and other impacts to the organization must be prioritized. Project selection (PS is a type of multiple criteria decision making (MCDM problem. In this study, we present a hybrid MCDM model combining the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL technique, analytic network process (ANP, and the VIKOR method to evaluate and improve Six Sigma projects for reducing performance gaps in each criterion and dimension. We consider the film printing industry of Taiwan as an empirical case. The results show that our study not only can use the best project selection, but can also be used to analyze the gaps between existing performance values and aspiration levels for improving the gaps in each dimension and criterion based on the influential network relation map.

MODELLING OF FINANCIAL EFFECTIVENESS AND COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP PROJECTS AND PUBLIC PROCUREMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kuznetsov Aleksey Alekseevich

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The article substantiates the necessity of extension and development of tools for methodological evaluation of effectiveness of public-private partnership (PPP projects both individually and in comparison of effectiveness of various mechanisms of projects realization on the example of traditional public procurement. The author proposed an original technique of modelling cash flows of private and public partners when realizing the projects based on PPP and on public procurement. The model enables us promptly and with sufficient accuracy to reveal comparative advantages of project forms of PPP and public procurement, and also assess financial effectiveness of the PPP projects for each partner. The modelling is relatively straightforward and reliable. The model also enables us to evaluate public partner's expenses for availability, find the terms and thresholds for interest rates of financing attracted by the partners and for risk probabilities to ensure comparative advantage of PPP project. Proposed criteria of effectiveness are compared with methodological recommendations provided by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. Subject: public and private organizations, financial institutions, development institutions and their theoretical and practical techniques for effectiveness evaluation of public-private partnership (PPP projects. Complexity of effectiveness evaluation and the lack of unified and accepted methodology are among the factors that limit the development of PPP in the Russian Federation nowadays. Research objectives: development of methodological methods for assessing financial efficiency of PPP projects by creating and justifying application of new principles and methods of modelling, and also criteria for effectiveness of PPP projects both individually and in comparison with the public procurement. Materials and methods: open database of ongoing PPP projects in the Russian Federation and abroad was used. The

Catchment Models and Management Tools for diffuse Contaminants (Sediment, Phosphorus and Pesticides): DIFFUSE Project

Science.gov (United States)

Mockler, Eva; Reaney, Simeon; Mellander, Per-Erik; Wade, Andrew; Collins, Adrian; Arheimer, Berit; Bruen, Michael

2017-04-01

The agricultural sector is the most common suspected source of nutrient pollution in Irish rivers. However, it is also often the most difficult source to characterise due to its predominantly diffuse nature. Particulate phosphorus in surface water and dissolved phosphorus in groundwater are of particular concern in Irish water bodies. Hence the further development of models and indices to assess diffuse sources of contaminants are required for use by the Irish Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to provide support for river basin planning. Understanding connectivity in the landscape is a vital component of characterising the source-pathway-receptor relationships for water-borne contaminants, and hence is a priority in this research. The DIFFUSE Project will focus on connectivity modelling and incorporation of connectivity into sediment, nutrient and pesticide risk mapping. The Irish approach to understanding and managing natural water bodies has developed substantially in recent years assisted by outputs from multiple research projects, including modelling and analysis tools developed during the Pathways and CatchmentTools projects. These include the Pollution Impact Potential (PIP) maps, which are an example of research output that is used by the EPA to support catchment management. The PIP maps integrate an understanding of the pollution pressures and mobilisation pathways and, using the source-pathways-receptor model, provide a scientific basis for evaluation of mitigation measures. These maps indicate the potential risk posed by nitrate and phosphate from diffuse agricultural sources to surface and groundwater receptors and delineate critical source areas (CSAs) as a means of facilitating the targeting of mitigation measures. Building on this previous research, the DIFFUSE Project will develop revised and new catchment managements tools focused on connectivity, sediment, phosphorus and pesticides. The DIFFUSE project will strive to identify the state

Improvement of the projection models for radiogenic cancer risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tong Jian

2005-01-01

Calculations of radiogenic cancer risk are based on the risk projection models for specific cancer sites. Improvement has been made for the parameters used in the previous models including introductions of mortality and morbidity risk coefficients, and age-/ gender-specific risk coefficients. These coefficients have been applied to calculate the radiogenic cancer risks for specific organs and radionuclides under different exposure scenarios. (authors)

Innovations in projecting emissions for air quality modeling ...

Science.gov (United States)

Air quality modeling is used in setting air quality standards and in evaluating their costs and benefits. Historically, modeling applications have projected emissions and the resulting air quality only 5 to 10 years into the future. Recognition that the choice of air quality management strategy has climate change implications is encouraging longer modeling time horizons. However, for multi-decadal time horizons, many questions about future conditions arise. For example, will current population, economic, and land use trends continue, or will we see shifts that may alter the spatial and temporal pattern of emissions? Similarly, will technologies such as building-integrated solar photovoltaics, battery storage, electric vehicles, and CO2 capture emerge as disruptive technologies - shifting how we produce and use energy - or will these technologies achieve only niche markets and have little impact? These are some of the questions that are being evaluated by researchers within the U.S. EPA’s Office of Research and Development. In this presentation, Dr. Loughlin will describe a range of analytical approaches that are being explored. These include: (i) the development of alternative scenarios of the future that can be used to evaluate candidate management strategies over wide-ranging conditions, (ii) the application of energy system models to project emissions decades into the future and to assess the environmental implications of new technologies, (iii) and methodo

Supporting Current Energy Conversion Projects through Numerical Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

James, S. C.; Roberts, J.

2016-02-01

The primary goals of current energy conversion (CEC) technology being developed today are to optimize energy output and minimize environmental impact. CEC turbines generate energy from tidal and current systems and create wakes that interact with turbines located downstream of a device. The placement of devices can greatly influence power generation and structural reliability. CECs can also alter the environment surrounding the turbines, such as flow regimes, sediment dynamics, and water quality. These alterations pose potential stressors to numerous environmental receptors. Software is needed to investigate specific CEC sites to simulate power generation and hydrodynamic responses of a flow through a CEC turbine array so that these potential impacts can be evaluated. Moreover, this software can be used to optimize array layouts that yield the least changes to the environmental (i.e., hydrodynamics, sediment dynamics, and water quality). Through model calibration exercises, simulated wake profiles and turbulence intensities compare favorably to the experimental data and demonstrate the utility and accuracy of a fast-running tool for future siting and analysis of CEC arrays in complex domains. The Delft3D modeling tool facilitates siting of CEC projects through optimization of array layouts and evaluation of potential environmental effect all while provide a common "language" for academics, industry, and regulators to be able to discuss the implications of marine renewable energy projects. Given the enormity of any full-scale marine renewable energy project, it necessarily falls to modeling to evaluate how array operations must be addressed in an environmental impact statement in a way that engenders confidence in the assessment of the CEC array to minimize environmental effects.

MODELS AND METHODS OF SAFETY-ORIENTED PROJECT MANAGEMENT OF DEVELOPMENT OF COMPLEX SYSTEMS: METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Олег Богданович ЗАЧКО

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The methods and models of safety-oriented project management of the development of complex systems are proposed resulting from the convergence of existing approaches in project management in contrast to the mechanism of value-oriented management. A cognitive model of safety oriented project management of the development of complex systems is developed, which provides a synergistic effect that is to move the system from the original (pre condition in an optimal one from the viewpoint of life safety - post-project state. The approach of assessment the project complexity is proposed, which consists in taking into account the seasonal component of a time characteristic of life cycles of complex organizational and technical systems with occupancy. This enabled to take into account the seasonal component in simulation models of life cycle of the product operation in complex organizational and technical system, modeling the critical points of operation of systems with occupancy, which forms a new methodology for safety-oriented management of projects, programs and portfolios of projects with the formalization of the elements of complexity.

Visualizing projected Climate Changes - the CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensemble

Science.gov (United States)

Böttinger, Michael; Eyring, Veronika; Lauer, Axel; Meier-Fleischer, Karin

2017-04-01

Large ensembles add an additional dimension to climate model simulations. Internal variability of the climate system can be assessed for example by multiple climate model simulations with small variations in the initial conditions or by analyzing the spread in large ensembles made by multiple climate models under common protocols. This spread is often used as a measure of uncertainty in climate projections. In the context of the fifth phase of the WCRP's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), more than 40 different coupled climate models were employed to carry out a coordinated set of experiments. Time series of the development of integral quantities such as the global mean temperature change for all models visualize the spread in the multi-model ensemble. A similar approach can be applied to 2D-visualizations of projected climate changes such as latitude-longitude maps showing the multi-model mean of the ensemble by adding a graphical representation of the uncertainty information. This has been demonstrated for example with static figures in chapter 12 of the last IPCC report (AR5) using different so-called stippling and hatching techniques. In this work, we focus on animated visualizations of multi-model ensemble climate projections carried out within CMIP5 as a way of communicating climate change results to the scientific community as well as to the public. We take a closer look at measures of robustness or uncertainty used in recent publications suitable for animated visualizations. Specifically, we use the ESMValTool [1] to process and prepare the CMIP5 multi-model data in combination with standard visualization tools such as NCL and the commercial 3D visualization software Avizo to create the animations. We compare different visualization techniques such as height fields or shading with transparency for creating animated visualization of ensemble mean changes in temperature and precipitation including corresponding robustness measures. [1] Eyring, V

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and Pilot Studies

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. L.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, P.; Antle, J. M.; Nelson, G. C.; Porter, C.; Janssen, S.;

Success probability orientated optimization model for resource allocation of the technological innovation multi-project system

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Weixu Dai; Weiwei Wu; Bo Yu; Yunhao Zhu

2016-01-01

A success probability orientated optimization model for resource al ocation of the technological innovation multi-project system is studied. Based on the definition of the technological in-novation multi-project system, the leveling optimization of cost and success probability is set as the objective of resource al ocation. The cost function and the probability function of the optimization model are constructed. Then the objective function of the model is constructed and the solving process is explained. The model is applied to the resource al ocation of an enterprise’s technological innovation multi-project system. The results show that the pro-posed model is more effective in rational resource al ocation, and is more applicable in maximizing the utility of the technological innovation multi-project system.

Problems of angular momentum projection in nuclear physics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sorensen, R.A.

1977-01-01

In nuclear models approximate wave functions are often used which do not have sharp angular momentum as required of the exact wave functions. It seems obvious that model wave functions of this type should be improved by projection onto states of good angular momentum. It is not the purpose of this paper to discuss the technical difficulties of projection (which can be formidable for many particle systems), but rather to present in an elementary way certain fundamental ambiguities in the use of projection. An application to high spin states near the yrast line is suggested. (Auth.)

Coalescent Modelling Suggests Recent Secondary-Contact of Cryptic Penguin Species.

Science.gov (United States)

Grosser, Stefanie; Burridge, Christopher P; Peucker, Amanda J; Waters, Jonathan M

2015-01-01

Molecular genetic analyses present powerful tools for elucidating demographic and biogeographic histories of taxa. Here we present genetic evidence showing a dynamic history for two cryptic lineages within Eudyptula, the world's smallest penguin. Specifically, we use a suite of genetic markers to reveal that two congeneric taxa ('Australia' and 'New Zealand') co-occur in southern New Zealand, with only low levels of hybridization. Coalescent modelling suggests that the Australian little penguin only recently expanded into southern New Zealand. Analyses conducted under time-dependent molecular evolutionary rates lend support to the hypothesis of recent anthropogenic turnover, consistent with shifts detected in several other New Zealand coastal vertebrate taxa. This apparent turnover event highlights the dynamic nature of the region's coastal ecosystem.

A River Model Intercomparison Project in Preparation for SWOT

Science.gov (United States)

David, C. H.; Andreadis, K.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Beighley, E.; Boone, A. A.; Yamazaki, D.; Paiva, R. C. D.; Fleischmann, A. S.; Collischonn, W.; Fisher, C. K.; Kim, H.; Biancamaria, S.

2017-12-01

The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission is currently scheduled to launch at the beginning of next decade. SWOT is expected to retrieve unprecedented measurements of water extent, elevation, and slope in the largest terrestrial water bodies. Such potential transformative information motivates the investigation of our ability to ingest the associated data into continental-scale models of terrestrial hydrology. In preparation for the expected SWOT observations, an inter-comparison of continental-scale river models is being performed. This comparison experiment focuses on four of the world's largest river basins: the Amazon, the Mississippi, the Niger, and the Saint-Lawrence. This ongoing project focuses on two main research questions: 1) How can we best prepare for the expected SWOT continental to global measurements before SWOT even flies?, and 2) What is the added value of including SWOT terrestrial measurements into global hydro models for enhancing our understanding of the terrestrial water cycle and the climate system? We present here the results of the second year of this project which now includes simulations from six numerical models of rivers over the Mississippi and sheds light on the implications of various modeling choices on simulation quality as well as on the potential impact of SWOT observations.

Projections of Rainfall and Temperature from CMIP5 Models over BIMSTEC Countries

Science.gov (United States)

Pattnayak, K. C.; Kar, S. C.; Ragi, A. R.

2014-12-01

Rainfall and surface temperature are the most important climatic variables in the context of climate change. Thus, these variables simulated from fifth phase of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) models have been compared against Climatic Research Unit (CRU) observed data and projected for the twenty first century under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. Results for the seven countries under Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) such as Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand have been examined. Six CMIP5 models namely GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2M, GFDL-ESM2G, HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2-CC and HadGEM2-ES have been chosen for this study. The study period has been considered is from 1861 to 2100. From this period, initial 145 years i.e. 1861 to 2005 is reference or historical period and the later 95 years i.e. 2005 to 2100 is projected period. The climate change in the projected period has been examined with respect to the reference period. In order to validate the models, the mean annual rainfall and temperature has been compared with CRU over the reference period 1901 to 2005. Comparison reveals that most of the models are able to capture the spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature over most of the regions of BIMSTEC countries. Therefore these model data can be used to study the future changes in the 21st Century. Four out six models shows that the rainfall over Central and North India, Thailand and eastern part of Myanmar shows decreasing trend and Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka shows an increasing trend in both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. In case of temperature, all of the models show an increasing trend over all the BIMSTEC countries in both scenarios, however, the rate of increase is relatively less over Sri Lanka than the other countries. Annual cycles of rainfall and temperature over Bangladesh, Myanmar and Thailand

A Model of Successful School Leadership from the International Successful School Principalship Project

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Gurr

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The International Successful School Principalship Project (ISSPP has been actively conducting research about the work of successful principals since 2001. Findings from four project books and eight models derived from this project are synthesised into a model of successful school leadership. Building on Gurr, Drysdale and Mulford’s earlier model, the work of school leaders is described as engaging within the school context to influence student and school outcomes through interventions in teaching and learning, school capacity building, and the wider context. The qualities a leader brings to their role, a portfolio approach to using leadership ideas, constructing networks, collaborations and partnerships, and utilising accountability and evaluation for evidence-informed improvement, are important additional elements. The model is applicable to all in leadership roles in schools.

Integration of models for the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Napier, B.A.

1991-01-01

The objective of the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project is to estimate the radiation dose that individuals could have received as a result of emissions from nuclear operations at Hanford since 1944. The objective of phase 1 of the project was to demonstrate through calculations that adequate models and support data exist or could be developed to allow realistic estimations of doses to individuals from releases of radionuclides to the environment that occurred as long as 45 years ago. Much of the data used in phase 1 was preliminary; therefore, the doses calculated must be considered preliminary approximations. This paper describes the integration of various models that was implemented for initial computer calculations. Models were required for estimating the quantity of radioactive material released, for evaluating its transport through the environment, for estimating human exposure, and for evaluating resultant doses

Multi-scale, multi-model assessment of projected land allocation

Science.gov (United States)

Vernon, C. R.; Huang, M.; Chen, M.; Calvin, K. V.; Le Page, Y.; Kraucunas, I.

2017-12-01

Effects of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on climate are generally classified into two scale-dependent processes: biophysical and biogeochemical. An extensive amount of research has been conducted related to the impact of each process under alternative climate change futures. However, these studies are generally focused on the impacts of a single process and fail to bridge the gap between sector-driven scale dependencies and any associated dynamics. Studies have been conducted to better understand the relationship of these processes but their respective scale has not adequately captured overall interdependencies between land surface changes and changes in other human-earth systems (e.g., energy, water, economic, etc.). There has also been considerable uncertainty surrounding land use land cover downscaling approaches due to scale dependencies. Demeter, a land use land cover downscaling and change detection model, was created to address this science gap. Demeter is an open-source model written in Python that downscales zonal land allocation projections to the gridded resolution of a user-selected spatial base layer (e.g., MODIS, NLCD, EIA CCI, etc.). Demeter was designed to be fully extensible to allow for module inheritance and replacement for custom research needs, such as flexible IO design to facilitate the coupling of Earth system models (e.g., the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM)) to integrated assessment models (e.g., the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)). In this study, we first assessed the sensitivity of downscaled LULCC scenarios at multiple resolutions from Demeter to its parameters by comparing them to historical LULC change data. "Optimal" values of key parameters for each region were identified and used to downscale GCAM-based future scenarios consistent with those in the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP). Demeter-downscaled land use scenarios were then compared to the

Multimode model for projective photon-counting measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tualle-Brouri, Rosa; Ourjoumtsev, Alexei; Dantan, Aurelien; Grangier, Philippe; Wubs, Martijn; Soerensen, Anders S.

2009-01-01

We present a general model to account for the multimode nature of the quantum electromagnetic field in projective photon-counting measurements. We focus on photon-subtraction experiments, where non-Gaussian states are produced conditionally. These are useful states for continuous-variable quantum-information processing. We present a general method called mode reduction that reduces the multimode model to an effective two-mode problem. We apply this method to a multimode model describing broadband parametric down-conversion, thereby improving the analysis of existing experimental results. The main improvement is that spatial and frequency filters before the photon detector are taken into account explicitly. We find excellent agreement with previously published experimental results, using fewer free parameters than before, and discuss the implications of our analysis for the optimized production of states with negative Wigner functions.

Reducing failures rate within the project documentation using Building Information Modelling, especially Level of Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Prušková Kristýna

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Paper´s focus is on differences between traditional modelling in 2D software and modelling within the BIM technology. Research uncovers failures connected to the traditional way of designing and construction of project documentation. There are revealed and shown mismatches within the project documentation. Solution within the Building information modelling Technology is outlined. As a reference, there is used experience with design of specific building in both ways of construction of project documentation: in the way of traditional modelling and in the way when using BIM technology, especially using Level of Development. Output of this paper is pointing to benefits of using advanced technology in building design, thus Building Information Modelling, especially Level of Development, which leads to reducing failures rate within the project documentation.

Understanding and managing three-dimensional/four-dimensional model implementations at the project team level

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hartmann, Timo; Levitt, R.

2010-01-01

This paper introduces an extant, theoretical, social-psychological model that explains the sense-making processes of project managers confronted with a new technology to improve our understanding of project-based innovation processes. The model represents the interlinked processes through which

A model for personal life project design on the basis of vocational guidance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Isaac Geovanni Mendoza Cedeño

2015-09-01

Full Text Available This article is intended to propose a model for developing vocational education personal life projects and its corresponding theoretical foundations. Therefore, the argument is undertaken on the model developed from philosophical views, epistemological, pedagogical, sociological, and psychological axiological, and a model is provided as a basis for the development of vocational education strategy for personal life project development contributing effectively to the development of responsible autonomy and high school students.

Atmospheric transport and dispersion modeling for the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ramsdell, J.V.

1991-07-01

Radiation doses that may have resulted from operations at the Hanford Site are being estimated in the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project. One of the project subtasks, atmospheric transport, is responsible for estimating the transport, diffusion and deposition of radionuclides released to the atmosphere. This report discusses modeling transport and diffusion in the atmospheric pathway. It is divided into three major sections. The first section of the report presents the atmospheric modeling approach selected following discussion with the Technical Steering Panel that directs the HEDR Project. In addition, the section discusses the selection of the MESOI/MESORAD suite of atmospheric dispersion models that form the basis for initial calculations and future model development. The second section of the report describes alternative modeling approaches that were considered. Emphasis is placed on the family of plume and puff models that are based on Gaussian solution to the diffusion equations. The final portion of the section describes the performance of various models. The third section of the report discusses factors that bear on the selection of an atmospheric transport modeling approach for HEDR. These factors, which include the physical setting of the Hanford Site and the available meteorological data, serve as constraints on model selection. Five appendices are included in the report. 39 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs

Projected shell model study of neutron- deficient 122Ce

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Projected shell model; band diagram; yrast energies; electromagnetic quan- ... signed to 122Ce by detecting γ-rays in coincidence with evaporated charged particles .... 0.75 from the free nucleon values to account for the core-polarization and ...

Intercomparison of hydrological model structures and calibration approaches in climate scenario impact projections

Science.gov (United States)

Vansteenkiste, Thomas; Tavakoli, Mohsen; Ntegeka, Victor; De Smedt, Florimond; Batelaan, Okke; Pereira, Fernando; Willems, Patrick

2014-11-01

The objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of hydrological model structure and calibration on climate change impact results in hydrology. The uncertainty in the hydrological impact results is assessed by the relative change in runoff volumes and peak and low flow extremes from historical and future climate conditions. The effect of the hydrological model structure is examined through the use of five hydrological models with different spatial resolutions and process descriptions. These were applied to a medium sized catchment in Belgium. The models vary from the lumped conceptual NAM, PDM and VHM models over the intermediate detailed and distributed WetSpa model to the fully distributed MIKE SHE model. The latter model accounts for the 3D groundwater processes and interacts bi-directionally with a full hydrodynamic MIKE 11 river model. After careful and manual calibration of these models, accounting for the accuracy of the peak and low flow extremes and runoff subflows, and the changes in these extremes for changing rainfall conditions, the five models respond in a similar way to the climate scenarios over Belgium. Future projections on peak flows are highly uncertain with expected increases as well as decreases depending on the climate scenario. The projections on future low flows are more uniform; low flows decrease (up to 60%) for all models and for all climate scenarios. However, the uncertainties in the impact projections are high, mainly in the dry season. With respect to the model structural uncertainty, the PDM model simulates significantly higher runoff peak flows under future wet scenarios, which is explained by its specific model structure. For the low flow extremes, the MIKE SHE model projects significantly lower low flows in dry scenario conditions in comparison to the other models, probably due to its large difference in process descriptions for the groundwater component, the groundwater-river interactions. The effect of the model

Developing a stochastic traffic volume prediction model for public-private partnership projects

Science.gov (United States)

Phong, Nguyen Thanh; Likhitruangsilp, Veerasak; Onishi, Masamitsu

2017-11-01

Transportation projects require an enormous amount of capital investment resulting from their tremendous size, complexity, and risk. Due to the limitation of public finances, the private sector is invited to participate in transportation project development. The private sector can entirely or partially invest in transportation projects in the form of Public-Private Partnership (PPP) scheme, which has been an attractive option for several developing countries, including Vietnam. There are many factors affecting the success of PPP projects. The accurate prediction of traffic volume is considered one of the key success factors of PPP transportation projects. However, only few research works investigated how to predict traffic volume over a long period of time. Moreover, conventional traffic volume forecasting methods are usually based on deterministic models which predict a single value of traffic volume but do not consider risk and uncertainty. This knowledge gap makes it difficult for concessionaires to estimate PPP transportation project revenues accurately. The objective of this paper is to develop a probabilistic traffic volume prediction model. First, traffic volumes were estimated following the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) process. Monte Carlo technique is then applied to simulate different scenarios. The results show that this stochastic approach can systematically analyze variations in the traffic volume and yield more reliable estimates for PPP projects.

Progress report for project modeling Arctic barrier island-lagoon system response to projected Arctic warming

Science.gov (United States)

Erikson, Li H.; Gibbs, Ann E.; Richmond, Bruce M.; Storlazzi, Curt; B.M. Jones,

2012-01-01

Changes in Arctic coastal ecosystems in response to global warming may be some of the most severe on the planet. A better understanding and analysis of the rates at which these changes are expected to occur over the coming decades is crucial in order to delineate high-priority areas that are likely to be affected by climate changes. In this study we investigate the likelihood of changes to habitat-supporting barrier island – lagoon systems in response to projected changes in atmospheric and oceanographic forcing associated with Arctic warming. To better understand the relative importance of processes responsible for the current and future coastal landscape, key parameters related to increasing arctic temperatures are investigated and used to establish boundary conditions for models that simulate barrier island migration and inundation of deltaic deposits and low-lying tundra. The modeling effort investigates the dominance and relative importance of physical processes shaping the modern Arctic coastline as well as decadal responses due to projected conditions out to the year 2100.

A Multi-Objective Trade-Off Model in Sustainable Construction Projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guangdong Wu

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Based on the consideration of the relative importance of sustainability-related objectives and the inherent nature of sustainable construction projects, this study proposes that the contractor can balance the levels of efforts and resources used to improve the overall project sustainability. A multi-objective trade-off model using game theory was established and verified through simulation and numerical example under a moral hazard situation. Results indicate that effort levels of the contractor on sustainability-related objectives are positively related to the outcome coefficient while negatively to the coefficients of effort cost of the relevant objectives. High levels of the relative importance of sustainability-related objectives contribute to high levels of effort of the contractor. With the variation in effort levels and the coefficient of benefit allocation, the project net benefit increases before declining. The function of project benefit has a marked peak value, with an inverted “U” shape. An equilibrium always exists as for the given relative importance and coefficients of the effort costs of sustainability-related objectives. Under this condition, the owner may offer the contractor a less intense incentive and motivate the contractor reasonably arranging input resources. The coefficient of benefit allocation is affected by the contractor characteristic factors and the project characteristic factors. The owner should balance these two types of factors and select the most appropriate incentive mechanism to improve the project benefit. Meanwhile, the contractor can balance the relative importance of the objectives and arrange the appropriate levels of effort and resources to achieve a sustainability-related objective. Very few studies have emphasized the effects of the relative importance of sustainability-related objectives on the benefits of sustainable construction projects. This study therefore builds a multi-objective trade

A new market risk model for cogeneration project financing---combined heat and power development without a power purchase agreement

Science.gov (United States)

Lockwood, Timothy A.

Federal legislative changes in 2006 no longer entitle cogeneration project financings by law to receive the benefit of a power purchase agreement underwritten by an investment-grade investor-owned utility. Consequently, this research explored the need for a new market-risk model for future cogeneration and combined heat and power (CHP) project financing. CHP project investment represents a potentially enormous energy efficiency benefit through its application by reducing fossil fuel use up to 55% when compared to traditional energy generation, and concurrently eliminates constituent air emissions up to 50%, including global warming gases. As a supplemental approach to a comprehensive technical analysis, a quantitative multivariate modeling was also used to test the statistical validity and reliability of host facility energy demand and CHP supply ratios in predicting the economic performance of CHP project financing. The resulting analytical models, although not statistically reliable at this time, suggest a radically simplified CHP design method for future profitable CHP investments using four easily attainable energy ratios. This design method shows that financially successful CHP adoption occurs when the average system heat-to-power-ratio supply is less than or equal to the average host-convertible-energy-ratio, and when the average nominally-rated capacity is less than average host facility-load-factor demands. New CHP investments can play a role in solving the world-wide problem of accommodating growing energy demand while preserving our precious and irreplaceable air quality for future generations.

Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project Verification, Validation, and Credibility (VVandC)

Science.gov (United States)

Walton, M.; Boley, L.; Keenan, L.; Kerstman, E.; Shah, R.; Young, M.; Saile, L.; Garcia, Y.; Meyers, J.; Reyes, D.

2015-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project supports end user requests by employing the Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) and IMM tools as well as subject matter expertise within the Project. The iMED houses data used by the IMM. The IMM is designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A stochastic approach is taken because deterministic results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation, as well as lay the foundation for external review and application. METHODS: In 2008, the Project team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) [1] was published, the Project team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. Construction of these tools included meeting documentation and evidence requirements sufficient to meet external review success criteria. RESULTS: IMM Project VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include updates to the 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of

Future Arctic marine access: analysis and evaluation of observations, models, and projections of sea ice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. S. Rogers

2013-02-01

Full Text Available There is an emerging need for regional applications of sea ice projections to provide more accuracy and greater detail to scientists, national, state and local planners, and other stakeholders. The present study offers a prototype for a comprehensive, interdisciplinary study to bridge observational data, climate model simulations, and user needs. The study's first component is an observationally based evaluation of Arctic sea ice trends during 1980–2008, with an emphasis on seasonal and regional differences relative to the overall pan-Arctic trend. Regional sea ice loss has varied, with a significantly larger decline of winter maximum (January–March extent in the Atlantic region than in other sectors. A lead–lag regression analysis of Atlantic sea ice extent and ocean temperatures indicates that reduced sea ice extent is associated with increased Atlantic Ocean temperatures. Correlations between the two variables are greater when ocean temperatures lag rather than lead sea ice. The performance of 13 global climate models is evaluated using three metrics to compare sea ice simulations with the observed record. We rank models over the pan-Arctic domain and regional quadrants and synthesize model performance across several different studies. The best performing models project reduced ice cover across key access routes in the Arctic through 2100, with a lengthening of seasons for marine operations by 1–3 months. This assessment suggests that the Northwest and Northeast Passages hold potential for enhanced marine access to the Arctic in the future, including shipping and resource development opportunities.

Organizational suggestion system in the era of holding by developing an innovative model : the case of bonyade ta avon holding in Iran(an applied model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meysam Ghasemi

2010-01-01

Full Text Available One of the popular ways of taking advantage of personnel creativity is through suggestionsystems. Our main question is how to implement suggestion system in holding with conglomeratestructure. The paper presents an innovative model that were named ITFSK Model with accordanceof Bonayade Taavone (a holding that has many companies and institutions with conglomeratestructure. ITFSK is a model that explains how participation management and suggestion system isimplemented effectively in huge Enterprises (holding and this approach brings continuousimprovement (kaizen and it impacts the productivity of these enterprises.The paper is based on field research and the research in Bonyade Tavan that has 22 companies and2 institutions that activity fields of the subholdings is very varied.Our model consists of five main parts such as ideas bank, think-tank, feedback, sharing ofknowledge and kaizen that was named ITFSK.Implementation of “Suggestion system” rules has immediate and significant effects on theproductivity of activities in the jobs, thus influencing the performance of processes in the analyzedorganization. Suggestion system can result in kaizen and innovation in environment oforganization.The model was used to implement and evaluate a suggestion system of holding with conglomeratedstructure. The application of the model to evaluate the suggestion system provided some goodinsights and highlighted some areas of improvement.

Modeling geo-homopholy in online social networks for population distribution projection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuanxing Zhang

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Purpose – Projecting the population distribution in geographical regions is important for many applications such as launching marketing campaigns or enhancing the public safety in certain densely populated areas. Conventional studies require the collection of people’s trajectory data through offline means, which is limited in terms of cost and data availability. The wide use of online social network (OSN apps over smartphones has provided the opportunities of devising a lightweight approach of conducting the study using the online data of smartphone apps. This paper aims to reveal the relationship between the online social networks and the offline communities, as well as to project the population distribution by modeling geo-homophily in the online social networks. Design/methodology/approach – In this paper, the authors propose the concept of geo-homophily in OSNs to determine how much the data of an OSN can help project the population distribution in a given division of geographical regions. Specifically, the authors establish a three-layered theoretic framework that first maps the online message diffusion among friends in the OSN to the offline population distribution over a given division of regions via a Dirichlet process and then projects the floating population across the regions. Findings – By experiments over large-scale OSN data sets, the authors show that the proposed prediction models have a high prediction accuracy in characterizing the process of how the population distribution forms and how the floating population changes over time. Originality/value – This paper tries to project population distribution by modeling geo-homophily in OSNs.

Identification of linear error-models with projected dynamical systems

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Krejčí, Pavel; Kuhnen, K.

2004-01-01

Roč. 10, č. 1 (2004), s. 59-91 ISSN 1387-3954 Keywords : identification * error models * projected dynamical systems Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.292, year: 2004 http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a713682517

Thresholding projection estimators in functional linear models

OpenAIRE

Cardot, Hervé; Johannes, Jan

2010-01-01

We consider the problem of estimating the regression function in functional linear regression models by proposing a new type of projection estimators which combine dimension reduction and thresholding. The introduction of a threshold rule allows to get consistency under broad assumptions as well as minimax rates of convergence under additional regularity hypotheses. We also consider the particular case of Sobolev spaces generated by the trigonometric basis which permits to get easily mean squ...

Food for thought: Overconfidence in model projections

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brander, Keith; Neuheimer, Anna; Andersen, Ken Haste

2013-01-01

There is considerable public and political interest in the state of marine ecosystems and fisheries, but the reliability of some recent projections has been called into question. New information about declining fish stocks, loss of biodiversity, climate impacts, and management failure is frequent...... be reliable and uncertainties arising from models and data shortcomings must be presented fully and transparently. Scientific journals play an important role and should require more detailed analysis and presentation of uncertainties....

Investigating the Capacity of Hydrological Models to Project Impacts of Climate Change in the Context of Water Allocation

Science.gov (United States)

Velez, Carlos; Maroy, Edith; Rocabado, Ivan; Pereira, Fernando

2017-04-01

To analyse the impacts of climate changes, hydrological models are used to project the hydrology responds under future conditions that normally differ from those for which they were calibrated. The challenge is to assess the validity of the projected effects when there is not data to validate it. A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change was proposed by Refsgaard et al., (2014). The authors recommend the use of the differential-split sample test (DSST) in order to build confidence in the model projections. The method follow three steps: 1. A small number of sub-periods are selected according to one climate characteristics, 2. The calibration - validation test is applied on these periods, 3. The validation performances are compered to evaluate whether they vary significantly when climatic characteristics differ between calibration and validation. DSST rely on the existing records of climate and hydrological variables; and performances are estimated based on indicators of error between observed and simulated variables. Other authors suggest that, since climate models are not able to reproduce single events but rather statistical properties describing the climate, this should be reflected when testing hydrological models. Thus, performance criteria such as RMSE should be replaced by for instance flow duration curves or other distribution functions. Using this type of performance criteria, Van Steenbergen and Willems, (2012) proposed a method to test the validity of hydrological models in a climate changing context. The method is based on the evaluation of peak flow increases due to different levels of rainfall increases. In contrast to DSST, this method use the projected climate variability and it is especially useful to compare different modelling tools. In the framework of a water allocation project for the region of Flanders (Belgium) we calibrated three hydrological models: NAM, PDM and VHM; for 67 gauged sub-catchments with approx

A framework for extracting and representing project knowledge contexts using topic models and dynamic knowledge maps

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Jin; Li, Zheng; Li, Shuliang; Zhang, Yanyan

2015-07-01

There is still a lack of effective paradigms and tools for analysing and discovering the contents and relationships of project knowledge contexts in the field of project management. In this paper, a new framework for extracting and representing project knowledge contexts using topic models and dynamic knowledge maps under big data environments is proposed and developed. The conceptual paradigm, theoretical underpinning, extended topic model, and illustration examples of the ontology model for project knowledge maps are presented, with further research work envisaged.

Project W-320 thermal hydraulic model benchmarking and baselining

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sathyanarayana, K.

1998-01-01

Project W-320 will be retrieving waste from Tank 241-C-106 and transferring the waste to Tank 241-AY-102. Waste in both tanks must be maintained below applicable thermal limits during and following the waste transfer. Thermal hydraulic process control models will be used for process control of the thermal limits. This report documents the process control models and presents a benchmarking of the models with data from Tanks 241-C-106 and 241-AY-102. Revision 1 of this report will provide a baselining of the models in preparation for the initiation of sluicing

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Overview and Progress

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenzweig, C.; Hatfield, J.; Jones, J. W.; Ruane, A. C.

2012-12-01

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is an international effort to assess the state of global agricultural modeling and to understand climate impacts on the agricultural sector. AgMIP connects the climate science, crop modeling, and agricultural economic modeling communities to generate probabilistic projections of current and future climate impacts. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of risk of hunger and world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. This presentation will describe the general approach of AgMIP and highlight its findings and activities. AgMIP crop model intercomparisons have been established for wheat (27 models participating), maize (25 models), and rice (15+ models), and are being established for sugarcane, soybean, sorghum/millet, and peanut. In coordination with these pilots, methodologies to utilize weather generators and downscaled climate simulations for agricultural applications are under development. An AgMIP global agricultural economics model intercomparison with participation of 11 international groups is ongoing, and a number of global biophysical models are currently being evaluated for future climate impacts on agricultural lands both as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) and for contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). AgMIP is also organizing regional research efforts, and has already held workshops in South America, Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, Europe, and North America. Outcomes from these meetings have informed AgMIP activities, and 10 research teams from Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia have been selected for project funding. Additional activities are planned for Australia and East Asia. As the AgMIP research community continues to work towards its goals, three key cross-cutting scientific challenges have emerged and are being

Causes of model dry and warm bias over central U.S. and impact on climate projections.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Yanluan; Dong, Wenhao; Zhang, Minghua; Xie, Yuanyu; Xue, Wei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong

2017-10-12

Climate models show a conspicuous summer warm and dry bias over the central United States. Using results from 19 climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we report a persistent dependence of warm bias on dry bias with the precipitation deficit leading the warm bias over this region. The precipitation deficit is associated with the widespread failure of models in capturing strong rainfall events in summer over the central U.S. A robust linear relationship between the projected warming and the present-day warm bias enables us to empirically correct future temperature projections. By the end of the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario, the corrections substantially narrow the intermodel spread of the projections and reduce the projected temperature by 2.5 K, resulting mainly from the removal of the warm bias. Instead of a sharp decrease, after this correction the projected precipitation is nearly neutral for all scenarios.Climate models repeatedly show a warm and dry bias over the central United States, but the origin of this bias remains unclear. Here the authors associate this bias to precipitation deficits in models and after applying a correction, projected precipitation in this region shows no significant changes.

Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) Contribution to CMIP6

Science.gov (United States)

Nowicki, Sophie M. J.; Payne, Tony; Larour, Eric; Seroussi, Helene; Goelzer, Heiko; Lipscomb, William; Gregory, Jonathan; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Shepherd, Andrew

2016-01-01

Reducing the uncertainty in the past, present, and future contribution of ice sheets to sea-level change requires a coordinated effort between the climate and glaciology communities. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In this paper, we describe the framework for ISMIP6 and its relationship with other activities within CMIP6. The ISMIP6 experimental design relies on CMIP6 climate models and includes, for the first time within CMIP, coupled ice-sheetclimate models as well as standalone ice-sheet models. To facilitate analysis of the multi-model ensemble and to generate a set of standard climate inputs for standalone ice-sheet models, ISMIP6 defines a protocol for all variables related to ice sheets. ISMIP6 will provide a basis for investigating the feedbacks, impacts, and sea-level changes associated with dynamic ice sheets and for quantifying the uncertainty in ice-sheet-sourced global sea-level change.

Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6

Science.gov (United States)

Nowicki, Sophie M.J.; Payne, Tony; Larour, Eric; Seroussi, Helene; Goelzer, Heiko; Lipscomb, William; Gregory, Jonathan; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Shepherd, Andrew

2018-01-01

Reducing the uncertainty in the past, present and future contribution of ice sheets to sea-level change requires a coordinated effort between the climate and glaciology communities. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. In this paper, we describe the framework for ISMIP6 and its relationship to other activities within CMIP6. The ISMIP6 experimental design relies on CMIP6 climate models and includes, for the first time within CMIP, coupled ice sheet – climate models as well as standalone ice sheet models. To facilitate analysis of the multi-model ensemble and to generate a set of standard climate inputs for standalone ice sheet models, ISMIP6 defines a protocol for all variables related to ice sheets. ISMIP6 will provide a basis for investigating the feedbacks, impacts, and sea-level changes associated with dynamic ice sheets and for quantifying the uncertainty in ice-sheet-sourced global sea-level change. PMID:29697697

Use of System Dynamics Modeling in Medical Education and Research Projects.

Science.gov (United States)

Bozikov, Jadranka; Relic, Danko; Dezelic, Gjuro

2018-01-01

The paper reviews experiences and accomplishments in application of system dynamics modeling in education, training and research projects at the Andrija Stampar School of Public Health, a branch of the Zagreb University School of Medicine, Croatia. A number of simulation models developed over the past 40 years are briefly described with regard to real problems concerned, objectives and modeling methods and techniques used. Many of them have been developed as the individual students' projects as a part of their graduation, MSc or PhD theses and subsequently published in journals or conference proceedings. Some of them were later used in teaching and simulation training. System dynamics modeling proved to be not only powerful method for research and decision making but also a useful tool in medical and nursing education enabling better understanding of dynamic systems' behavior.

Solid Waste Projection Model: Database (Version 1.3)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blackburn, C.L.

1991-11-01

The Solid Waste Projection Model (SWPM) system is an analytical tool developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC). The SWPM system provides a modeling and analysis environment that supports decisions in the process of evaluating various solid waste management alternatives. This document, one of a series describing the SWPM system, contains detailed information regarding the software and data structures utilized in developing the SWPM Version 1.3 Database. This document is intended for use by experienced database specialists and supports database maintenance, utility development, and database enhancement

Sustainable model for financial viability of decentralized biomass gasifier based power projects

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Palit, D.; Malhotra, R.; Kumar, Atul

2011-01-01

This paper made a modest attempt for designing a sustainable model for financial viability of biomass gasifier power projects for enhancing electricity access in India and other developing countries. For long term sustainability of distributed generation projects in remote rural areas, viability

PENGARUH MODEL PROJECT BASED LEARNING TERHADAP KEMAMPUAN BERPIKIR KREATIF MATEMATIKA SISWA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hesti Noviyana

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract: The problems in this study relate to the learning model of Project Based Learning and students' creative thinking ability in mathematics. The purpose of the research to know the influence of the model of Project Based Learning on the ability to think creatively mathematics students VIII grade even semester SMP Negeri 3 Bandar Lampung lesson 2016/2017 . The research used experimental method with the population that is all students of class VIII with the amount of 347, while the sample is taken 2 class that is class VIII A as experiment class which amounted to 31, class VIII C as control class which amounted 30. The sample was taken using Cluster Random Sampling technique. To know the ability of creative thinking mathematics students authors perform tests in the form of essays as many as 5 questions that have been tested the validity and reliability. Hypothesis testing in this study using t test. From the results of hypothesis testing using t-test obtained t value = 14.27. From the distribution table t at the significant level of 5% is known t = 2.00 means t> t, so it can be concluded "There is Influence of Model Based Project Based on the Ability of Creative Thinking Mathematics Students".Keywords: Project Based Learning, creative thinking ability of mathematics

Review on Population Projection Methodology for Radiological Dose Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jang, M. S.; Kang, H. S.; Kim, S. R. [NESS, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Hwang, W. T. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Yang, Y. H. [KHNP, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-05-15

Radiation environment report (RER), one of the essential documents in plant operating license or continuous operation license, includes population projection. Population estimates are utilized in determining the collective dose at the operation or restart time of nuclear power plant. Many population projection models are suggested and also under development. We carried out the sensitivity analysis on various population projection models to Daejeon city as a target. Daejeon city showed the increase or decrease in the cross-sectional population, because of the development of Sejong city, Doan new town and etc. We analyzed the population of Daejeon city using statistical ARIMA model and various simple population projection models. It is important to determine the population limit in Modified exponential model but it is not easy. Therefore, the various properties of the area such as the decrease and increase of population, new town development plan, social and natural environment change and etc., should be carefully reviewed to estimate the future population of any area.

Review on Population Projection Methodology for Radiological Dose Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jang, M. S.; Kang, H. S.; Kim, S. R.; Hwang, W. T.; Yang, Y. H.

2015-01-01

Radiation environment report (RER), one of the essential documents in plant operating license or continuous operation license, includes population projection. Population estimates are utilized in determining the collective dose at the operation or restart time of nuclear power plant. Many population projection models are suggested and also under development. We carried out the sensitivity analysis on various population projection models to Daejeon city as a target. Daejeon city showed the increase or decrease in the cross-sectional population, because of the development of Sejong city, Doan new town and etc. We analyzed the population of Daejeon city using statistical ARIMA model and various simple population projection models. It is important to determine the population limit in Modified exponential model but it is not easy. Therefore, the various properties of the area such as the decrease and increase of population, new town development plan, social and natural environment change and etc., should be carefully reviewed to estimate the future population of any area

Process, cost modeling and simulations for integrated project development of biomass for fuel and protein

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pannir Selvam, P.V.; Wolff, D.M.B.; Souza Melo, H.N.

1998-01-01

The construction of the models for biomass project development are described. These models, first constructed using QPRO electronic spread sheet for Windows, are now being developed with the aid of visual and object oriented program as tools using DELPHI V.1 for windows and process simulator SUPERPRO, V.2.7 Intelligent Inc. These models render the process development problems with economic objectives to be solved very rapidly. The preliminary analysis of cost and investments of biomass utilisation projects which are included for this study are: steam, ammonia, carbon dioxide and alkali pretreatment process, methane gas production using anaerobic digestion process, aerobic composting, ethanol fermentation and distillation, effluent treatments using high rate algae production as well as cogeneration of energy for drying. The main project under developments are the biomass valuation projects with the elephant (Napier) grass, sugar cane bagasse and microalgae, using models for mass balance, equipment and production cost. The sensibility analyses are carried out to account for stochastic variation of the process yield, production volume, price variations, using Monte Carlo method. These models allow the identification of economical and scale up problems of the technology. The results obtained with few preliminary project development with few case studies are reported for integrated project development for fuel and protein using process and cost simulation models. (author)

Models of Financing and Available Financial Resources for Transport Infrastructure Projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. Pokorná

2001-01-01

Full Text Available A typical feature of transport infrastructure projects is that they are expensive and take a long time to construct. Transport infrastructure financing has traditionally lain in the public domain. A tightening of many countries' budgets in recent times has led to an exploration of alternative resources for financing transport infrastructures. A variety of models and methods can be used in transport infrastructure project financing. The selection of the appropriate model should be done taking into account not only financial resources but also the distribution of construction and operating risks and the contractual relations between the stakeholders.

Using Agile Project Management to Enhance the Performance of Instructional Design Teams

Science.gov (United States)

Sweeney, David S.; Cifuentes, Lauren

2010-01-01

Instructional design models describe in detail methodologies for designing effective instruction. Several widely adopted models include suggestions for managing instructional design projects. However, these suggestions focus on how to manage the instructional design steps rather than the instructional design and development team process. The…

Grounded Theory Study of Conflicts in Norwegian Agile Software Projects: The Project Managers’ Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lubna Siddique

2016-07-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to explore the process of conflicts in agile software projects. The purpose was to investigate the causes and consequences of these conflicts. For this purpose, we conducted a qualitative study involving agile software projects in Norway. Grounded theory was used to analyze the data and the interview findings are presented using Glaser´s Six C model (context, condition, causes, consequences, contingencies, and covariance. The research findings suggest that there are several causes of conflicts. These include: the role of the product owner, an inexperienced project manager, the customer’s lack of knowledge about methodology organizational hierarchy in public companies, contracting, personal egos, financial issues, not getting the right team. Consequences of conflicts include: decreased productivity, wastage of time and resources, diverted attention from project objectives loss of motivation, poor decision making, loss of communication. Based on interview data, different conflict strategies are suggested and these include appropriately skilled project manager, communication and negotiation, defining clear roles, stakeholder analysis, managing stakeholder´s expectations, discussion, finding the root cause of conflict. Project managers are using these strategies to avoid or resolve conflicts. The competencies required to handle these kind of conflicts are also discussed in the paper, while the implications of theory and practice of conflict management theory are also presented.

FUNCTIONAL MODEL OF THE MATERIAL RESOURCES MANAGEMENT FOR PROJECTS OF THE CREATION OF NEW TECHNIQUES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Yu. Danshyna

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to problem of material management arising in the implementation of projects for the development and creation (modernization of the new techniques. The uniqueness of the projects, their limit on the cost and time does not allow the use of traditional approaches to resource management. Such projects are often implemented in the development of companies; where it is not possible to abandon the traditional operating methods of management. The aim of the article is a formalization of the process of material management of projects, a description of its information flows for integrate into the project management practices and for improve the efficiency of material management. For the systematization of information arising from the material resources management, invited the set-theoretic representation of the management process. According with the requirements of project management standards were described the sets and defined rules of their transformation. Specification of the set-theoretic representation helped to establish the area and limits of the modelling process. Further decomposition process became the basis of the functional model, constructed in accordance with the methodology IDEF 0. A graphical representation of the model allows you to visualize the process at different levels of detail. For specification of issues related to the organization and promotion of material flow, were developed functional models of sub-processes and were described the identified data-flows. For the harmonization of process and project approaches formulated conditions for evaluating the efficiency of material management. The developed models can be the basis for designing the structure of companies, for regulation of their project activities, as well as for establishing an information system of management resources of projects.

Revenue Risk Modelling and Assessment on BOT Highway Project

Science.gov (United States)

Novianti, T.; Setyawan, H. Y.

2018-01-01

The infrastructure project which is considered as a public-private partnership approach under BOT (Build-Operate-Transfer) arrangement, such as a highway, is risky. Therefore, assessment on risk factors is essential as the project have a concession period and is influenced by macroeconomic factors and consensus period. In this study, pre-construction risks of a highway were examined by using a Delphi method to create a space for offline expert discussions; a fault tree analysis to map intuition of experts and to create a model from the underlying risk events; a fuzzy logic to interpret the linguistic data of risk models. The loss of revenue for risk tariff, traffic volume, force majeure, and income were then measured. The results showed that the loss of revenue caused by the risk tariff was 10.5% of the normal total revenue. The loss of revenue caused by the risk of traffic volume was 21.0% of total revenue. The loss of revenue caused by the force majeure was 12.2% of the normal income. The loss of income caused by the non-revenue events was 6.9% of the normal revenue. It was also found that the volume of traffic was the major risk of a highway project because it related to customer preferences.

Sustainable model for financial viability of decentralized biomass gasifier based power projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Palit, Debajit; Malhotra, Ramit; Kumar, Atul

2011-01-01

This paper made a modest attempt for designing a sustainable model for financial viability of biomass gasifier power projects for enhancing electricity access in India and other developing countries. For long term sustainability of distributed generation projects in remote rural areas, viability from both project implementing agency (PIA) and the end-users need to be ensured. The minimum required prices of electricity from both PIA and end-user perspective have been estimated. While for PIA the cost recovery is the key for viability, the affordability to pay the electricity cost is crucial for the end users. Analysis carried out in this paper on the basis of data obtained from operational projects implemented in India reveal that it is essential to operate the system at a higher capacity utilization factor. While this can be achieved though creating convergence with locally relevant economic activity, it is also observed that micro-enterprises cannot pay beyond a certain price of electricity to keep it sustainable. This paper sets forth a case for developing a regulatory mechanism to extend the tariff fixation for the projects and providing cross-subsidies to ensure long term sustainability of off-grid project. - Highlights: → We design sustainable financial model for viability of biomass gasifier projects. → Analysis based on field data obtained from operational projects in India. Estimated electricity pricing from both implementing agency and end-users perspective. → A regulatory mechanism for tariff fixation and cross subsidization is recommended.

A modification of projective spacetime by finite self-interaction models of virtual leptons and quarks and the electroweak GWS standard model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scheurich, H.

1986-01-01

From the projective Dirac equation in a six-dimensional Kleinian space R(3, 3) are derived finite-rotation-group models as self-interaction models of virtual leptons and quarks. The quaternion group underlying them is considered as a substructure group of projective spacetime. A finite hyperspherical carrier of the self-interaction models is embedded into projective spacetime by means of the Planck length L 0 = (hG/c 3 )/sup 1/2/ as a physical unit length. The corresponding modification of metrics in the Planck domain becomes apparent to be equivalent to the role of the Higgs field in the electroweak GWS standard model. (author)

Project studies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Geraldi, Joana; Söderlund, Jonas

2018-01-01

Project organising is a growing field of scholarly inquiry and management practice. In recent years, two important developments have influenced this field: (1) the study and practice of projects have extended their level of analysis from mainly focussing on individual projects to focussing on micro......, and of the explanations of project practices they could offer. To discuss avenues for future research on projects and project practice, this paper suggests the notion of project studies to better grasp the status of our field. We combine these two sets of ideas to analyse the status and future options for advancing...... project research: (1) levels of analysis; and (2) type of research. Analysing recent developments within project studies, we observe the emergence of what we refer to as type 3 research, which reconciles the need for theoretical development and engagement with practice. Type 3 research suggests pragmatic...

Compilation Of An Econometric Human Resource Efficiency Model For Project Management Best Practices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. van Zyl

2006-11-01

Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to introduce a human resource efficiency model in order to rank the most important human resource driving forces for project management best practices. The results of the model will demonstrate how the human resource component of project management acts as the primary function to enhance organizational performance, codified through improved logical end-state programmes, work ethics and process contributions. Given the hypothesis that project management best practices involve significant human resource and organizational changes, one would reasonably expect this process to influence and resonate throughout all the dimensions of an organisation.

Project-oriented management of industrial production of fire and rescue equipment by means of geometric modelling

OpenAIRE

Rak, Iu; Bondarenko, V.

2013-01-01

Objective: The objective of the research is to develop a method based on the geometric modelling for the purpose of improving the effectiveness of fire protection project management in industrial production of fire protection technology systems. Methods: The theoretical inheritance mode of effective management in project-organizational structure of fire protection and specialized technical equipment production using geometric modelling. Results: Mathematical and geometric models of project ma...

Results of the ITER toroidal field model coil project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salpietro, E.; Maix, R.

2001-01-01

In the scope of the ITER EDA one of the seven largest projects was devoted to the development, manufacture and testing of a Toroidal Field Model Coil (TFMC). The industry consortium AGAN manufactured the TFMC based on on a conceptual design developed by the ITER EDA EU Home Team. The TFMC was completed and assembled in the test facility TOSKA of the Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe in the first half of 2001. The first testing phase started in June 2001 and lasted till October 2001. The first results have shown that the main goals of the project have been achieved

Governance model for integrating organizational project management (OPM with corporate practices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amr Mossalam

2017-12-01

Having proposed the model, it needed validation, which was done through implementing the model in organizations through automation projects. The implementation resulted in some changes in the model to achieve the required levels of accountability, responsibility, and transparency. These changes were incorporated into the model and were reflected in its modified version. Finally, the paper highlighted the recommended improvements that would enhance the future implementation of the model.

Risks of ocean acidification in the California Current food web and fisheries: ecosystem model projections.

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall, Kristin N; Kaplan, Isaac C; Hodgson, Emma E; Hermann, Albert; Busch, D Shallin; McElhany, Paul; Essington, Timothy E; Harvey, Chris J; Fulton, Elizabeth A

2017-04-01

The benefits and ecosystem services that humans derive from the oceans are threatened by numerous global change stressors, one of which is ocean acidification. Here, we describe the effects of ocean acidification on an upwelling system that already experiences inherently low pH conditions, the California Current. We used an end-to-end ecosystem model (Atlantis), forced by downscaled global climate models and informed by a meta-analysis of the pH sensitivities of local taxa, to investigate the direct and indirect effects of future pH on biomass and fisheries revenues. Our model projects a 0.2-unit drop in pH during the summer upwelling season from 2013 to 2063, which results in wide-ranging magnitudes of effects across guilds and functional groups. The most dramatic direct effects of future pH may be expected on epibenthic invertebrates (crabs, shrimps, benthic grazers, benthic detritivores, bivalves), and strong indirect effects expected on some demersal fish, sharks, and epibenthic invertebrates (Dungeness crab) because they consume species known to be sensitive to changing pH. The model's pelagic community, including marine mammals and seabirds, was much less influenced by future pH. Some functional groups were less affected to changing pH in the model than might be expected from experimental studies in the empirical literature due to high population productivity (e.g., copepods, pteropods). Model results suggest strong effects of reduced pH on nearshore state-managed invertebrate fisheries, but modest effects on the groundfish fishery because individual groundfish species exhibited diverse responses to changing pH. Our results provide a set of projections that generally support and build upon previous findings and set the stage for hypotheses to guide future modeling and experimental analysis on the effects of OA on marine ecosystems and fisheries. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Decomposing the uncertainty in climate impact projections of Dynamic Vegetation Models: a test with the forest models LANDCLIM and FORCLIM

Science.gov (United States)

Cailleret, Maxime; Snell, Rebecca; von Waldow, Harald; Kotlarski, Sven; Bugmann, Harald

2015-04-01

Different levels of uncertainty should be considered in climate impact projections by Dynamic Vegetation Models (DVMs), particularly when it comes to managing climate risks. Such information is useful to detect the key processes and uncertainties in the climate model - impact model chain and may be used to support recommendations for future improvements in the simulation of both climate and biological systems. In addition, determining which uncertainty source is dominant is an important aspect to recognize the limitations of climate impact projections by a multi-model ensemble mean approach. However, to date, few studies have clarified how each uncertainty source (baseline climate data, greenhouse gas emission scenario, climate model, and DVM) affects the projection of ecosystem properties. Focusing on one greenhouse gas emission scenario, we assessed the uncertainty in the projections of a forest landscape model (LANDCLIM) and a stand-scale forest gap model (FORCLIM) that is caused by linking climate data with an impact model. LANDCLIM was used to assess the uncertainty in future landscape properties of the Visp valley in Switzerland that is due to (i) the use of different 'baseline' climate data (gridded data vs. data from weather stations), and (ii) differences in climate projections among 10 GCM-RCM chains. This latter point was also considered for the projections of future forest properties by FORCLIM at several sites along an environmental gradient in Switzerland (14 GCM-RCM chains), for which we also quantified the uncertainty caused by (iii) the model chain specific statistical properties of the climate time-series, and (iv) the stochasticity of the demographic processes included in the model, e.g., the annual number of saplings that establish, or tree mortality. Using methods of variance decomposition analysis, we found that (i) The use of different baseline climate data strongly impacts the prediction of forest properties at the lowest and highest, but

MARKET ENTRY STRATEGIES TO EMERGING MARKETS: A CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF TURNKEY PROJECT DEVELOPMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bistra Vassileva

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The main purpose of the paper is to analyse the international market entry strategies in the light of globalisation processes and to propose a conceptual model of turnkey projects as market entry mode. The specific research objectives are as follows: 1. to develop an integrated framework of the turnkey marketing process as a conceptual model; 2. to analyse BRICS countries as potential host countries for turnkey projects implementation; 3. to assess potential implications of proposed conceptual model for global market entry decisions.

Modeling water flow and solute transport in unsaturated zone inside NSRAWD project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Constantin, A.; Diaconu, D.; Bucur, C.; Genty, A.

2015-01-01

The NSRAWD project (2010-2013) - Numerical Simulations for Radioactive Waste Disposal was initiated under a collaboration agreement between the Institute for Nuclear Research and the French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission (CEA). The context of the project was favorable to combine the modeling activities with an experimental part in order to improve and validate the numerical models used so far to simulate water flow and solute transport at Saligny site, Romania. The numerical models developed in the project were refined and validated on new hydrological data gathered between 2010-2012 by a monitoring station existent on site which performs automatic determination of soil water content and matrix potential, as well as several climate parameters (wind, temperature and precipitations). Water flow and solute transport was modeled in transient conditions, by taking into consideration, as well as neglecting the evapotranspiration phenomenon, on the basis of a tracer test launched on site. The determination of dispersivities for solute transport was targeted from the solute plume. The paper presents the main results achieved in the NSRAWD project related to water flow and solute transport in the unsaturated area of the Saligny site. The results indicated satisfactory predictions for the simulation of water flow in the unsaturated area, in steady state and transient conditions. In the case of tracer transport modeling, dispersivity coefficients could not be finally well fitted for the data measured on site and in order to obtain a realistic preview over the values of these parameters, further investigations are recommended. The article is followed by the slides of the presentation

Model selection approach suggests causal association between 25-hydroxyvitamin D and colorectal cancer.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lina Zgaga

Full Text Available Vitamin D deficiency has been associated with increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC, but causal relationship has not yet been confirmed. We investigate the direction of causation between vitamin D and CRC by extending the conventional approaches to allow pleiotropic relationships and by explicitly modelling unmeasured confounders.Plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-OHD, genetic variants associated with 25-OHD and CRC, and other relevant information was available for 2645 individuals (1057 CRC cases and 1588 controls and included in the model. We investigate whether 25-OHD is likely to be causally associated with CRC, or vice versa, by selecting the best modelling hypothesis according to Bayesian predictive scores. We examine consistency for a range of prior assumptions.Model comparison showed preference for the causal association between low 25-OHD and CRC over the reverse causal hypothesis. This was confirmed for posterior mean deviances obtained for both models (11.5 natural log units in favour of the causal model, and also for deviance information criteria (DIC computed for a range of prior distributions. Overall, models ignoring hidden confounding or pleiotropy had significantly poorer DIC scores.Results suggest causal association between 25-OHD and colorectal cancer, and support the need for randomised clinical trials for further confirmations.

Constructive use of holographic projections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schroer, Bert

2008-01-01

Revisiting the old problem of existence of interacting models of QFT with new conceptual ideas and mathematical tools, one arrives at a novel view about the nature of QFT. The recent success of algebraic methods in establishing the existence of factorizing models suggests new directions for a more intrinsic constructive approach beyond Lagrangian quantization. Holographic projection simplifies certain properties of the bulk theory and hence is a promising new tool for these new attempts. (author)

Constructive use of holographic projections

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schroer, Bert [Centro Brasileiro de Pesquisas Fisicas (CBPF), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Institut fuer Theoretische Physik der FU, Berlin (Germany)

2008-07-01

Revisiting the old problem of existence of interacting models of QFT with new conceptual ideas and mathematical tools, one arrives at a novel view about the nature of QFT. The recent success of algebraic methods in establishing the existence of factorizing models suggests new directions for a more intrinsic constructive approach beyond Lagrangian quantization. Holographic projection simplifies certain properties of the bulk theory and hence is a promising new tool for these new attempts. (author)

Analysis of existing risk assessments, and list of suggestions

CERN Document Server

Heimsch, Laura

2016-01-01

The scope of this project was to analyse risk assessments made at CERN and extracting some crucial information about the different methodologies used, profiles of people who make the risk assessments, and gathering information of whether the risk matrix was used and if the acceptable level of risk was defined. Second step of the project was to trigger discussion inside HSE about risk assessment by suggesting a risk matrix and a risk assessment template.

Experience of Hungarian model project: 'Strengthening training for operational safety at Paks NPP'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kiss, I.

1998-01-01

Training of Operational Safety at Paks NPP is described including all the features of the project including namely: description of Paks NPP, its properties and performances; reasons for establishing Hungarian Model Project, its main goals, mentioning Hungarian and IAEA experts involved in the Project, its organization, operation, budget, current status together with its short term and long term impact

Hardware architecture for projective model calculation and false match refining using random sample consensus algorithm

Science.gov (United States)

Azimi, Ehsan; Behrad, Alireza; Ghaznavi-Ghoushchi, Mohammad Bagher; Shanbehzadeh, Jamshid

2016-11-01

The projective model is an important mapping function for the calculation of global transformation between two images. However, its hardware implementation is challenging because of a large number of coefficients with different required precisions for fixed point representation. A VLSI hardware architecture is proposed for the calculation of a global projective model between input and reference images and refining false matches using random sample consensus (RANSAC) algorithm. To make the hardware implementation feasible, it is proved that the calculation of the projective model can be divided into four submodels comprising two translations, an affine model and a simpler projective mapping. This approach makes the hardware implementation feasible and considerably reduces the required number of bits for fixed point representation of model coefficients and intermediate variables. The proposed hardware architecture for the calculation of a global projective model using the RANSAC algorithm was implemented using Verilog hardware description language and the functionality of the design was validated through several experiments. The proposed architecture was synthesized by using an application-specific integrated circuit digital design flow utilizing 180-nm CMOS technology as well as a Virtex-6 field programmable gate array. Experimental results confirm the efficiency of the proposed hardware architecture in comparison with software implementation.

Development of coupled models and their validation against experiments -DECOVALEX project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stephansson, O.; Jing, L.; Kautsky, F.

1995-01-01

DECOVALEX is an international co-operative research project for theoretical and experimental studies of coupled thermal, hydrological and mechanical processes in hard rocks. Different mathematical models and computer codes have been developed by research teams from different countries. These models and codes are used to study the so-called Bench Mark Test and Test Case problems developed within this project. Bench-Mark Tests are defined as hypothetical initial-boundary value problems of a generic nature, and Test Cases are experimental investigations of part or full aspects of coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical processes in hard rocks. Analytical and semi-analytical solutions related to coupled T-H-M processes are also developed for problems with simpler geometry and initial-boundary conditions. These solutions are developed to verify algorithms and their computer implementations. In this contribution the motivation, organization and approaches and current status of the project are presented, together with definitions of Bench-Mark Tests and Test Case problems. The definition and part of results for a BMT problem (BMT3) for a near-field repository model are described as an example. (authors). 3 refs., 11 figs., 3 tabs

Metal Mixture Modeling Evaluation project: 2. Comparison of four modeling approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Farley, Kevin J.; Meyer, Joe; Balistrieri, Laurie S.; DeSchamphelaere, Karl; Iwasaki, Yuichi; Janssen, Colin; Kamo, Masashi; Lofts, Steve; Mebane, Christopher A.; Naito, Wataru; Ryan, Adam C.; Santore, Robert C.; Tipping, Edward

2015-01-01

As part of the Metal Mixture Modeling Evaluation (MMME) project, models were developed by the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (Japan), the U.S. Geological Survey (USA), HDR⎪HydroQual, Inc. (USA), and the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (UK) to address the effects of metal mixtures on biological responses of aquatic organisms. A comparison of the 4 models, as they were presented at the MMME Workshop in Brussels, Belgium (May 2012), is provided herein. Overall, the models were found to be similar in structure (free ion activities computed by WHAM; specific or non-specific binding of metals/cations in or on the organism; specification of metal potency factors and/or toxicity response functions to relate metal accumulation to biological response). Major differences in modeling approaches are attributed to various modeling assumptions (e.g., single versus multiple types of binding site on the organism) and specific calibration strategies that affected the selection of model parameters. The models provided a reasonable description of additive (or nearly additive) toxicity for a number of individual toxicity test results. Less-than-additive toxicity was more difficult to describe with the available models. Because of limitations in the available datasets and the strong inter-relationships among the model parameters (log KM values, potency factors, toxicity response parameters), further evaluation of specific model assumptions and calibration strategies is needed.

W-320 Project thermal modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sathyanarayana, K., Fluor Daniel Hanford

1997-03-18

This report summarizes the results of thermal analysis performed to provide a technical basis in support of Project W-320 to retrieve by sluicing the sludge in Tank 241-C-106 and to transfer into Tank 241-AY-102. Prior theraml evaluations in support of Project W-320 safety analysis assumed the availability of 2000 to 3000 CFM, as provided by Tank Farm Operations, for tank floor cooling channels from the secondary ventilation system. As this flow availability has no technical basis, a detailed Tank 241-AY-102 secondary ventilation and floor coating channel flow model was developed and analysis was performed. The results of the analysis show that only about 150 cfm flow is in floor cooLing channels. Tank 241-AY-102 thermal evaluation was performed to determine the necessary cooling flow for floor cooling channels using W-030 primary ventilation system for different quantities of Tank 241-C-106 sludge transfer into Tank 241-AY-102. These sludge transfers meet different options for the project along with minimum required modification of the ventilation system. Also the results of analysis for the amount of sludge transfer using the current system is presented. The effect of sludge fluffing factor, heat generation rate and its distribution between supernatant and sludge in Tank 241-AY-102 on the amount of sludge transfer from Tank 241-C-106 were evaluated and the results are discussed. Also transient thermal analysis was performed to estimate the time to reach the steady state. For a 2 feet sludge transfer, about 3 months time will be requirad to reach steady state. Therefore, for the purpose of process control, a detailed transient thermal analysis using GOTH Computer Code will be required to determine transient response of the sludge in Tank 241-AY-102. Process control considerations are also discussed to eliminate the potential for a steam bump during retrieval and storage in Tanks 241-C-106 and 241-AY-102 respectively.

Research on evaluating water resource resilience based on projection pursuit classification model

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Dong; Zhao, Dan; Liang, Xu; Wu, Qiuchen

2016-03-01

Water is a fundamental natural resource while agriculture water guarantees the grain output, which shows that the utilization and management of water resource have a significant practical meaning. Regional agricultural water resource system features with unpredictable, self-organization, and non-linear which lays a certain difficulty on the evaluation of regional agriculture water resource resilience. The current research on water resource resilience remains to focus on qualitative analysis and the quantitative analysis is still in the primary stage, thus, according to the above issues, projection pursuit classification model is brought forward. With the help of artificial fish-swarm algorithm (AFSA), it optimizes the projection index function, seeks for the optimal projection direction, and improves AFSA with the application of self-adaptive artificial fish step and crowding factor. Taking Hongxinglong Administration of Heilongjiang as the research base and on the basis of improving AFSA, it established the evaluation of projection pursuit classification model to agriculture water resource system resilience besides the proceeding analysis of projection pursuit classification model on accelerating genetic algorithm. The research shows that the water resource resilience of Hongxinglong is the best than Raohe Farm, and the last 597 Farm. And the further analysis shows that the key driving factors influencing agricultural water resource resilience are precipitation and agriculture water consumption. The research result reveals the restoring situation of the local water resource system, providing foundation for agriculture water resource management.

PERLUASAN IMPLEMENTASI PENDIDIKAN KEWIRAUSAHAAN MODEL PROJECT BASED LEARNING BAGI REMAJA PUTUS SEKOLAH KORBAN GEMPA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Moerdiyanto Moerdiyanto

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract: Widen Implementation of Entrepreneurship Education Using Project Based Learning Model for Earthquake Victim Drop Out Teenagers. This action research aims at figuring out achievement level of entrepreneurship personalities mastering and business skills held by drop out teenagers after taking part in real business learning experience using Project Based Learning. The population for this study is all of the earthquake victim drop out teenagers in Piyungan, Pleret, and Sewon Bantul Yogyakarta Special Territory.  Interviewed, questionnaire, observation, and documentation are employed to collect data. The results show that entrepreneurship education using Project Based Learning model leads to highly mastering of entrepreneurship personalities (soft skill and highly mastering of business skills (hard skill. Furthermore, through this study Kelompok Usaha Mandiri (Group of Independent Business is created, and then the drop out teenagers can run their own business.   Keyword: business skill, project based learning, soft skill, hard skill   Abstrak: Perluasan Implementasi Pendidikan Kewirausahaan Model Project Based Learning Bagi Remaja Putus Sekolah Korban Gempa. Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian tindakan dengan tujuan untuk mengetahui tingkat keberhasilan penguasaan kepribadian (jiwa kewirausahaan dan keterampilan usaha yang dimiliki Remaja Putus Sekolah (RPS setelah memperoleh pengalaman belajar bisnis riil dengan model Project Based Learning. Populasi dalam penelitian ini adalah semua remaja putus sekolah korban gempa di Kecamatan Piyungan, Kecamatan Pleret, dan Kecamatan Sewon Kabupaten Bantul DIY. Teknik pengumpulan data menggunakan wawancara, angket, observasi, dokumentasi, dan pemberian tugas. Data dianalisis menggunakan teknik deskriptif kuantitatif dan kualitatif. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pemberian pendidikan kewirausahaan dengan menggunakan model Project Based Learning bisa berhasil dengan baik yang ditunjukkan dengan

Project risk management in the construction of high-rise buildings

Science.gov (United States)

Titarenko, Boris; Hasnaoui, Amir; Titarenko, Roman; Buzuk, Liliya

2018-03-01

This paper shows the project risk management methods, which allow to better identify risks in the construction of high-rise buildings and to manage them throughout the life cycle of the project. One of the project risk management processes is a quantitative analysis of risks. The quantitative analysis usually includes the assessment of the potential impact of project risks and their probabilities. This paper shows the most popular methods of risk probability assessment and tries to indicate the advantages of the robust approach over the traditional methods. Within the framework of the project risk management model a robust approach of P. Huber is applied and expanded for the tasks of regression analysis of project data. The suggested algorithms used to assess the parameters in statistical models allow to obtain reliable estimates. A review of the theoretical problems of the development of robust models built on the methodology of the minimax estimates was done and the algorithm for the situation of asymmetric "contamination" was developed.

A trophic model of fringing coral reefs in Nanwan Bay, southern Taiwan suggests overfishing.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Pi-Jen; Shao, Kwang-Tsao; Jan, Rong-Quen; Fan, Tung-Yung; Wong, Saou-Lien; Hwang, Jiang-Shiou; Chen, Jen-Ping; Chen, Chung-Chi; Lin, Hsing-Juh

2009-09-01

Several coral reefs of Nanwan Bay, Taiwan have recently undergone shifts to macroalgal or sea anemone dominance. Thus, a mass-balance trophic model was constructed to analyze the structure and functioning of the food web. The fringing reef model was comprised of 18 compartments, with the highest trophic level of 3.45 for piscivorous fish. Comparative analyses with other reef models demonstrated that Nanwan Bay was similar to reefs with high fishery catches. While coral biomass was not lower, fish biomass was lower than those of reefs with high catches. Consequently, the sums of consumption and respiratory flows and total system throughput were also decreased. The Nanwan Bay model potentially suggests an overfished status in which the mean trophic level of the catch, matter cycling, and trophic transfer efficiency are extremely reduced.

Modelling of Airship Flight Mechanics by the Projection Equivalent Method

OpenAIRE

Frantisek Jelenciak; Michael Gerke; Ulrich Borgolte

2015-01-01

This article describes the projection equivalent method (PEM) as a specific and relatively simple approach for the modelling of aircraft dynamics. By the PEM it is possible to obtain a mathematic al model of the aerodynamic forces and momentums acting on different kinds of aircraft during flight. For the PEM, it is a characteristic of it that - in principle - it provides an acceptable regression model of aerodynamic forces and momentums which exhibits reasonable and plausible behaviour from a...

Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nowicki, Sophie M J; Payne, Anthony; Larour, Eric; Seroussi, Helene; Goelzer, Heiko|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/412549123; Lipscomb, William; Gregory, Jonathan; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Shepherd, Andrew

2016-01-01

Reducing the uncertainty in the past, present, and future contribution of ice sheets to sea-level change requires a coordinated effort between the climate and glaciology communities. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary activity within the Coupled Model

Projection models for health-effects assessment in populations exposed to radioactive and nonradioactive pollutants. Volume I. Introduction to the SPAHR demographic model for health risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Collins, J.J.; Lundy, R.T.; Grahn, D.; Ginevan, M.E.

1982-09-01

The Simulation Package for the Analysis of Health Risk (SPAHR) is a computer software package based upon a demographic model for health risk projections. The model extends several health risk projection models by making realistic assumptions about the population at risk, and thus represents a distinct improvement over previous models. Complete documentation for use of SPAHR is contained in this five-volume publication. The demographic model in SPAHR estimates population response to environmental toxic exposures. Latency of response, changing dose level over time, competing risks from other causes of death, and population structure can be incorporated into SPAHR to project health risks. Risks are measured by morbid years, number of deaths, and loss of life expectancy. Comparisons of estimates of excess deaths demonstrate that previous health risk projection models may have underestimated excess deaths by a factor of from 2 to 10, depending on the pollutant and the exposure scenario. The software supporting the use of the demographic model is designed to be user oriented. Complex risk projections are made by responding to a series of prompts generated by the package. The flexibility and ease of use of SPAHR make it an important contribution to existing models and software packages. The first volume presents the theory behind the SPAHR health risk projection model and several applications of the model to actual pollution episodes. The elements required for an effective health risk projection model are specified, and the models that have been used to date in health risk projections are outlined. These are compared with the demographic model, whose formulation is described in detail. Examples of the application of air pollution and radiation dose-response functions are included in order to demonstrate the estimation of future mortality and morbidity levels and the range of variation in excess deaths that occurs when populations structure is changed.

Projection models for health-effects assessment in populations exposed to radioactive and nonradioactive pollutants. Volume I. Introduction to the SPAHR demographic model for health risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Collins, J.J.; Lundy, R.T.; Grahn, D.; Ginevan, M.E.

1982-09-01

The Simulation Package for the Analysis of Health Risk (SPAHR) is a computer software package based upon a demographic model for health risk projections. The model extends several health risk projection models by making realistic assumptions about the population at risk, and thus represents a distinct improvement over previous models. Complete documentation for use of SPAHR is contained in this five-volume publication. The demographic model in SPAHR estimates population response to environmental toxic exposures. Latency of response, changing dose level over time, competing risks from other causes of death, and population structure can be incorporated into SPAHR to project health risks. Risks are measured by morbid years, number of deaths, and loss of life expectancy. Comparisons of estimates of excess deaths demonstrate that previous health risk projection models may have underestimated excess deaths by a factor of from 2 to 10, depending on the pollutant and the exposure scenario. The software supporting the use of the demographic model is designed to be user oriented. Complex risk projections are made by responding to a series of prompts generated by the package. The flexibility and ease of use of SPAHR make it an important contribution to existing models and software packages. The first volume presents the theory behind the SPAHR health risk projection model and several applications of the model to actual pollution episodes. The elements required for an effective health risk projection model are specified, and the models that have been used to date in health risk projections are outlined. These are compared with the demographic model, whose formulation is described in detail. Examples of the application of air pollution and radiation dose-response functions are included in order to demonstrate the estimation of future mortality and morbidity levels and the range of variation in excess deaths that occurs when populations structure is changed

Innovation Leadership in Innovation Projects: The Application of the Reflective Practitioner Model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Oeij, P.R.A.

2016-01-01

In 1982 Donald Schön wrote the Reflective Practitioner which implicitly but never explicitly contains a model of steps what it is to act as a reflective practitioner in real life. In this paper we apply that model and try to make this latent (tacit) model into a manifest (explicit) model. Project

Translating hydrologically-relevant variables from the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS to the Greenland Analog Project hydrologic modeling domain

Science.gov (United States)

Vallot, Dorothée; Applegate, Patrick; Pettersson, Rickard

2013-04-01

Projecting future climate and ice sheet development requires sophisticated models and extensive field observations. Given the present state of our knowledge, it is very difficult to say what will happen with certainty. Despite the ongoing increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the possibility that a new ice sheet might form over Scandinavia in the far distant future cannot be excluded. The growth of a new Scandinavian Ice Sheet would have important consequences for buried nuclear waste repositories. The Greenland Analogue Project, initiated by the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB), is working to assess the effects of a possible future ice sheet on groundwater flow by studying a constrained domain in Western Greenland by field measurements (including deep bedrock drilling in front of the ice sheet) combined with numerical modeling. To address the needs of the GAP project, we interpolated results from an ensemble of ice sheet model runs to the smaller and more finely resolved modeling domain used in the GAP project's hydrologic modeling. Three runs have been chosen with three fairly different positive degree-day factors among those that reproduced the modern ice margin at the borehole position. The interpolated results describe changes in hydrologically-relevant variables over two time periods, 115 ka to 80 ka, and 20 ka to 1 ka. In the first of these time periods, the ice margin advances over the model domain; in the second time period, the ice margin retreats over the model domain. The spatially-and temporally dependent variables that we treated include the ice thickness, basal melting rate, surface mass balance, basal temperature, basal thermal regime (frozen or thawed), surface temperature, and basal water pressure. The melt flux is also calculated.

Projected metastable Markov processes and their estimation with observable operator models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Hao; Prinz, Jan-Hendrik; Noé, Frank

2015-01-01

The determination of kinetics of high-dimensional dynamical systems, such as macromolecules, polymers, or spin systems, is a difficult and generally unsolved problem — both in simulation, where the optimal reaction coordinate(s) are generally unknown and are difficult to compute, and in experimental measurements, where only specific coordinates are observable. Markov models, or Markov state models, are widely used but suffer from the fact that the dynamics on a coarsely discretized state spaced are no longer Markovian, even if the dynamics in the full phase space are. The recently proposed projected Markov models (PMMs) are a formulation that provides a description of the kinetics on a low-dimensional projection without making the Markovianity assumption. However, as yet no general way of estimating PMMs from data has been available. Here, we show that the observed dynamics of a PMM can be exactly described by an observable operator model (OOM) and derive a PMM estimator based on the OOM learning

Pengembangan Model Pembelajaran Project Based Learning pada Mata Kuliah Computer Aided Design

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Satoto Endar Nayono

2013-09-01

Full Text Available One of the key competencies of graduates majoring in Civil Engineering and Planning Education, Faculty of Engineering, Yogyakarta State University (YSU is able to plan buildings. CAD courses aim to train students to be able to pour the planning concepts into the picture. One of the obstacles faced in the course are concepts and pictures that created by the students often do not correspond to the standards used in the field. This study aims to develop a model of project-based learning so that the students’ pictures are more in line with the actual conditions in the field. This study was carried out through the stages as follows: (1 Pre test, (2 Planning of learning, (3 Implementation of the learning model of project-based learning, (4 monitoring and evaluation (5 Reflection and revision, (6 Implementation of learning in the next cycle, and (7 Evaluation of the learning outcomes. This study was conducted for four months in 2012 in the Department of Civil Engineering and Planning Education, Faculty of Engineering, YSU. The subjects of this study are the students who took the course of Computer Aided Design. The analysis of the data used descriptive qualitative and descriptive statistics. The results of this study were: (1 The implementation of project based learning model was proven to increase the learning process and the learning outcomes of students in the subject of CAD through the provision of buildings planning pictures tasks of school buildings based on the real conditions in the field. The task was delivered in every meeting and improved based on the feedback from their lecturers, (2 the learning model of project based learning will be easier to be implemented if it is accompanied by the model of peer tutoring and the learning model of PAIKEM.

Designing Business and Technology Management Work-Packages in Cleantech Research Projects

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tambo, Torben; Enevoldsen, Peter

2014-01-01

a clearer and more explicit perspective of conversion from research to business in to research project in energy storage. This paper suggests a model view on the conversion capability within cleantech research projects in order to anchor a distinctive and methodological consideration for business...

Radioactive waste management. International projects on biosphere modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carboneras, P.; Cancio, D.

1993-01-01

The paper presents a general overview and discussion on the state of art concerning the biospheric transfer and accumulation of contaminants. A special emphasis is given to the progress achieved in the field of radioactive contaminants and particularly to those implied in radioactive waste disposal. The objectives and advances of the international projects BIOMOVS and VAMP on validation of model predictions are also described. (Author)

The 1993 timber assessment market model: structure, projections, and policy simulations.

Science.gov (United States)

Darius M. Adams; Richard W. Haynes

1996-01-01

The 1993 timber assessment market model (TAMM) is a spatial model of the solidwood and timber inventory elements of the U.S. forest products sector. The TAMM model provides annual projections of volumes and prices in the solidwood products and sawtimber stumpage markets and estimates of total timber harvest and inventory by geographic region for periods of up to 50...

Twisted sigma-model solitons on the quantum projective line

Science.gov (United States)

Landi, Giovanni

2018-04-01

On the configuration space of projections in a noncommutative algebra, and for an automorphism of the algebra, we use a twisted Hochschild cocycle for an action functional and a twisted cyclic cocycle for a topological term. The latter is Hochschild-cohomologous to the former and positivity in twisted Hochschild cohomology results into a lower bound for the action functional. While the equations for the critical points are rather involved, the use of the positivity and the bound by the topological term lead to self-duality equations (thus yielding twisted noncommutative sigma-model solitons, or instantons). We present explicit nontrivial solutions on the quantum projective line.

Assessment of CMIP5 climate models and projected temperature changes over Northern Eurasia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miao, Chiyuan; Duan, Qingyun; Sun, Qiaohong; Kong, Dongxian; Ye, Aizhong; Di, Zhenhua; Gong, Wei; Huang, Yong; Yang, Tiantian

2014-01-01

Assessing the performance of climate models in surface air temperature (SAT) simulation and projection have received increasing attention during the recent decades. This paper assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating intra-annual, annual and decadal temperature over Northern Eurasia from 1901 to 2005. We evaluate the skill of different multi-model ensemble techniques and use the best technique to project the future SAT changes under different emission scenarios. The results show that most of the general circulation models (GCMs) overestimate the annual mean SAT in Northern Eurasia and the difference between the observation and the simulations primarily comes from the winter season. Most of the GCMs can approximately capture the decadal SAT trend; however, the accuracy of annual SAT simulation is relatively low. The correlation coefficient R between each GCM simulation and the annual observation is in the range of 0.20 to 0.56. The Taylor diagram shows that the ensemble results generated by the simple model averaging (SMA), reliability ensemble averaging (REA) and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) methods are superior to any single GCM output; and the decadal SAT change generated by SMA, REA and BMA are almost identical during 1901–2005. Heuristically, the uncertainty of BMA simulation is the smallest among the three multi-model ensemble simulations. The future SAT projection generated by the BMA shows that the SAT in Northern Eurasia will increase in the 21st century by around 1.03 °C/100 yr, 3.11 °C/100 yr and 7.14 °C/100 yr under the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively; and the warming accelerates with the increasing latitude. In addition, the spring season contributes most to the decadal warming occurring under the RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5 scenarios, while the winter season contributes most to the decadal warming occurring under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Generally, the uncertainty of the SAT

МULTI-STAKEHOLDER MODEL OF EDUCATION PROJECT QUALITY MANAGEMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Юлия Юрьевна ГУСЕВА

2015-05-01

Full Text Available The analysis of approaches to the definition of higher education projects’ stakeholders is conducted. A model of education project quality management with the influence of stakeholders is formed. A mechanism of recognition of new groups of project’s stakeholders on the basis of set theory is offered.

Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections

Science.gov (United States)

Kaplan, J.O.; Bigelow, N.H.; Prentice, I.C.; Harrison, S.P.; Bartlein, P.J.; Christensen, T.R.; Cramer, W.; Matveyeva, N.V.; McGuire, A.D.; Murray, D.F.; Razzhivin, V.Y.; Smith, B.; Walker, D.A.; Anderson, P.M.; Andreev, A.A.; Brubaker, L.B.; Edwards, M.E.; Lozhkin, A.V.

2003-01-01

Large variations in the composition, structure, and function of Arctic ecosystems are determined by climatic gradients, especially of growing-season warmth, soil moisture, and snow cover. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra was developed. The geographic distributions of vegetation types north of 55??N, including the position of the forest limit and the distributions of the tundra types, could be predicted from climatology using a small set of plant functional types embedded in the biogeochemistry-biogeography model BIOME4. Several palaeoclimate simulations for the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene were used to explore the possibility of simulating past vegetation patterns, which are independently known based on pollen data. The broad outlines of observed changes in vegetation were captured. LGM simulations showed the major reduction of forest, the great extension of graminoid and forb tundra, and the restriction of low- and high-shrub tundra (although not all models produced sufficiently dry conditions to mimic the full observed change). Mid-Holocene simulations reproduced the contrast between northward forest extension in western and central Siberia and stability of the forest limit in Beringia. Projection of the effect of a continued exponential increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, based on a transient ocean-atmosphere simulation including sulfate aerosol effects, suggests a potential for larger changes in Arctic ecosystems during the 21st century than have occurred between mid-Holocene and present. Simulated physiological effects of the CO2 increase (to > 700 ppm) at high latitudes were slight compared with the effects of the change in climate.

Disease management projects and the Chronic Care Model in action: baseline qualitative research.

Science.gov (United States)

Walters, Bethany Hipple; Adams, Samantha A; Nieboer, Anna P; Bal, Roland

2012-05-11

Disease management programs, especially those based on the Chronic Care Model (CCM), are increasingly common in The Netherlands. While disease management programs have been well-researched quantitatively and economically, less qualitative research has been done. The overall aim of the study is to explore how disease management programs are implemented within primary care settings in The Netherlands; this paper focuses on the early development and implementation stages of five disease management programs in the primary care setting, based on interviews with project leadership teams. Eleven semi-structured interviews were conducted at the five selected sites with sixteen professionals interviewed; all project directors and managers were interviewed. The interviews focused on each project's chosen chronic illness (diabetes, eating disorders, COPD, multi-morbidity, CVRM) and project plan, barriers to development and implementation, the project leaders' action and reactions, as well as their roles and responsibilities, and disease management strategies. Analysis was inductive and interpretive, based on the content of the interviews. After analysis, the results of this research on disease management programs and the Chronic Care Model are viewed from a traveling technology framework. This analysis uncovered four themes that can be mapped to disease management and the Chronic Care Model: (1) changing the health care system, (2) patient-centered care, (3) technological systems and barriers, and (4) integrating projects into the larger system. Project leaders discussed the paths, both direct and indirect, for transforming the health care system to one that addresses chronic illness. Patient-centered care was highlighted as needed and a paradigm shift for many. Challenges with technological systems were pervasive. Project leaders managed the expenses of a traveling technology, including the social, financial, and administration involved. At the sites, project leaders served

A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Refsgaard, J. C.; Madsen, H.; Andréassian, V.

2014-01-01

Models used for climate change impact projections are typically not tested for simulation beyond current climate conditions. Since we have no data truly reflecting future conditions, a key challenge in this respect is to rigorously test models using proxies of future conditions. This paper presents...... a validation framework and guiding principles applicable across earth science disciplines for testing the capability of models to project future climate change and its impacts. Model test schemes comprising split-sample tests, differential split-sample tests and proxy site tests are discussed in relation...... to their application for projections by use of single models, ensemble modelling and space-time-substitution and in relation to use of different data from historical time series, paleo data and controlled experiments. We recommend that differential-split sample tests should be performed with best available proxy data...

Regional climate projection of the Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model

Science.gov (United States)

IM, E. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

2014-12-01

Given that warming of the climate system is unequivocal (IPCC AR5), accurate assessment of future climate is essential to understand the impact of climate change due to global warming. Modelling the climate change of the Maritime Continent is particularly challenge, showing a high degree of uncertainty. Compared to other regions, model agreement of future projections in response to anthropogenic emission forcings is much less. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal behaviors of climate projections seem to vary significantly due to a complex geographical condition and a wide range of scale interactions. For the fine-scale climate information (27 km) suitable for representing the complexity of climate change over the Maritime Continent, dynamical downscaling is performed using the MIT regional climate model (MRCM) during two thirty-year period for reference (1970-1999) and future (2070-2099) climate. Initial and boundary conditions are provided by Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations under the emission scenarios projected by MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM). Changes in mean climate as well as the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are investigated at various temporal and spatial scales. Our analysis is primarily centered on the different behavior of changes in convective and large-scale precipitation over land vs. ocean during dry vs. wet season. In addition, we attempt to find the added value to downscaled results over the Maritime Continent through the comparison between MRCM and CESM projection. Acknowledgements.This research was supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore through the Singapore MIT Alliance for Research and Technology's Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling interdisciplinary research program.

Effects of Business Model Development Projects on Organizational Culture: A Multiple Case Study of SMEs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ulla Santti

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Previous research has shown that links between organizational culture and innovativeness/performance may act as a “social glue” that helps a company develop organizational culture as a competitive advantage. In this study of three case companies, the organizational culture change due business model development projects is studied using the Competing Values Framework (CVF tool and interviews with respondents about discovered changes. To reveal intervention and implied effects between business model development project and organizational culture changes, we used CIMO logic (context, intervention, mechanism, and outcome to bridge practice and theory by explanatory, backward-looking research. Our case studies of companies in relatively short-duration business model development projects indicate that organizational culture may have some dynamic characteristics, for example, an increase of the adhocracy organizational type in all case companies or an increase in the hierarchical leadership type in one case company. Thus, the development of an organizational culture type can be partly controlled. Our results also indicated business model development projects do have a minor effect on organizational culture, even when development activities have not been put fully into practice. However, the more comprehensively business model development project activities have been put into practice, the larger the effect on organizational culture.

Competence development organizations in project management on the basis of genomic model methodologies

OpenAIRE

Бушуев, Сергей Дмитриевич; Рогозина, Виктория Борисовна; Ярошенко, Юрий Федерович

2013-01-01

The matrix technology for identification of organisational competencies in project management is presented in the article. Matrix elements are the components of organizational competence in the field of project management and project management methodology represented in the structure of the genome. The matrix model of competence in the framework of the adopted methodologies and scanning method for identifying organizational competences formalised. Proposed methods for building effective proj...

Procedures and models for estimating preconstruction costs of highway projects.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-07-01

This study presents data driven and component based PE cost prediction models by utilizing critical factors retrieved from ten years of historical project data obtained from ODOT roadway division. The study used factor analysis of covariance and corr...

Technological Innovation Projects: Proposal For an Integrative Model Between Project Management and Knowledge Management in a Customer-Supplier Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edval da Silva Tavares

2014-10-01

Full Text Available In face of strong competition, companies in Brazil have increased their financial investments in automation, offering new products and services and reducing operating costs. These companies are focusing their efforts on core competencies and, therefore, they often lack the internal expertise to implement new projects, especially those that bring technological innovation. For this reason, we use the processes of outsourcing or subcontracting to help implement such projects. The unit of analysis in this study is the project and the object of the study to analyze the process of knowledge transfer from a provider to a customer during the duration of the project, which involves new technologies. The main motivation of this work is to address the acquisition and retention of new knowledge related to projects designed for business customers. We have developed a study of three cases of multiple financial firms that buy new technologies and two suppliers of information technology. As a practical result, a management model of knowledge transfer and retention of knowledge in client companies is proposed and incorporated into project management.

Make-up wells drilling cost in financial model for a geothermal project

Science.gov (United States)

Oktaviani Purwaningsih, Fitri; Husnie, Ruly; Afuar, Waldy; Abdurrahman, Gugun

2017-12-01

After commissioning of a power plant, geothermal reservoir will encounter pressure decline, which will affect wells productivity. Therefore, further drilling is carried out to enhance steam production. Make-up wells are production wells drilled inside an already confirmed reservoir to maintain steam production in a certain level. Based on Sanyal (2004), geothermal power cost consists of three components, those are capital cost, O&M cost and make-up drilling cost. The make-up drilling cost component is a major part of power cost which will give big influence in a whole economical value of the project. The objective of this paper it to analyse the make-up wells drilling cost component in financial model of a geothermal power project. The research will calculate make-up wells requirements, drilling costs as a function of time and how they influence the financial model and affect the power cost. The best scenario in determining make-up wells strategy in relation with the project financial model would be the result of this research.

Growth and Project Finance in the Least Developed Countries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

la Cour, Lisbeth F.; Müller, Jennifer

2014-01-01

for economic growth in LDCs. We find that a higher regulatory quality, lower government consumption and a higher level of education helps increase growth. The significance of these variables are, however, not as consistently robust as the results for project finance.......This article examines the effects of project finance on economic growth in the least developed countries (LDC). Inspired by the neoclassical growth model we set up an econometric model to estimate the effects of project finance for a sample consisting of 38 of the least developed countries using...... data from the period 1994-2007. The results of our study suggest, that project finance has a significant positive effect on economic growth and therefore constitute an important source of financing in the selected set of countries. Additionally, the project sheds light on other factors of importance...

Classification of hadith into positive suggestion, negative suggestion, and information

Science.gov (United States)

Faraby, Said Al; Riviera Rachmawati Jasin, Eliza; Kusumaningrum, Andina; Adiwijaya

2018-03-01

As one of the Muslim life guidelines, based on the meaning of its sentence(s), a hadith can be viewed as a suggestion for doing something, or a suggestion for not doing something, or just information without any suggestion. In this paper, we tried to classify the Bahasa translation of hadith into the three categories using machine learning approach. We tried stemming and stopword removal in preprocessing, and TF-IDF of unigram, bigram, and trigram as the extracted features. As the classifier, we compared between SVM and Neural Network. Since the categories are new, so in order to compare the results of the previous pipelines, we created a baseline classifier using simple rule-based string matching technique. The rule-based algorithm conditions on the occurrence of words such as “janganlah, sholatlah, and so on” to determine the category. The baseline method achieved F1-Score of 0.69, while the best F1-Score from the machine learning approach was 0.88, and it was produced by SVM model with the linear kernel.

High-Quality 3d Models and Their Use in a Cultural Heritage Conservation Project

Science.gov (United States)

Tucci, G.; Bonora, V.; Conti, A.; Fiorini, L.

2017-08-01

Cultural heritage digitization and 3D modelling processes are mainly based on laser scanning and digital photogrammetry techniques to produce complete, detailed and photorealistic three-dimensional surveys: geometric as well as chromatic aspects, in turn testimony of materials, work techniques, state of preservation, etc., are documented using digitization processes. The paper explores the topic of 3D documentation for conservation purposes; it analyses how geomatics contributes in different steps of a restoration process and it presents an overview of different uses of 3D models for the conservation and enhancement of the cultural heritage. The paper reports on the project to digitize the earthenware frieze of the Ospedale del Ceppo in Pistoia (Italy) for 3D documentation, restoration work support, and digital and physical reconstruction and integration purposes. The intent to design an exhibition area suggests new ways to take advantage of 3D data originally acquired for documentation and scientific purposes.

De Sitter projective relativity

CERN Document Server

Licata, Ignazio; Benedetto, Elmo

2017-01-01

This book presents the Projective approach to de Sitter Relativity. It traces the development of renewed interest in models of the universe at constant positive curvature such as "vacuum" geometry. The De Sitter Theory of Relativity, formulated in 1917 with Willem De Sitter's solution of the Einstein equations, was used in different fields during the 1950s and 1960s, in the work of H. Bacry, J.M. LevyLeblond and F.Gursey, to name some important contributors. From the 1960s to 1980s, L. Fantappié and G. Arcidiacono provided an elegant group approach to the De Sitter universe putting the basis for special and general projective relativity. Today such suggestions flow into a unitary scenario, and this way the De Sitter Relativity is no more a "missing opportunity" (F. Dyson, 1972), but has a central role in theoretical physics. In this volume a systematic presentation is given of the De Sitter Projective relativity, with the recent developments in projective general relativity and quantum cosmology.

MARKET ENTRY STRATEGIES TO EMERGING MARKETS: A CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF TURNKEY PROJECT DEVELOPMENT

OpenAIRE

Bistra Vassileva; Miroslav Nikolov

2016-01-01

The main purpose of the paper is to analyse the international market entry strategies in the light of globalisation processes and to propose a conceptual model of turnkey projects as market entry mode. The specific research objectives are as follows: 1. to develop an integrated framework of the turnkey marketing process as a conceptual model; 2. to analyse BRICS countries as potential host countries for turnkey projects implementation; 3. to assess potential implications of proposed concep...

THE PROACTIVE MANAGEMENT MODEL OF STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT PROJECT ON THE ENERGY SUPPLY COMPANIES IN A TURBULENT ENVIRONMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Михайло Збишекович ДОМБРОВСЬКИЙ

2017-03-01

Full Text Available A methodical approach of proactive project management model with the estimate (prediction deviation of actual results from planned at each control step is proposed. Deviation of actual results from the project planned, which takes place in the management of the energy company transformation project, as a result of action under uncertainty, determines the acceleration of work over the project plan. Implementation the scope of work, which exceeds the plan, as result of overspending of resources and budget, disrupting the stability of the project as a system. The graphic model helps to form the "corridor" tolerance based resource reserve, and the implementation of the project work is carried out according to the extension concept. Clarification allowable deviation area allows improving the model of project proactive management for each of the next execution step. Project management quality is improved by reducing the time of decision-making and increase the sustainability and efficiency by substantially reducing deviations. The conclusions about the benefits of the assessment of works and project resources balance, by using the proactive management model, which allows comparing variants of works dynamics, to implement the search for the best solution to a predetermined set of admissible, have been made.

Towards a new generation of flow and transport models for the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory. Main results from the project Aespoe models 2005

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Svensson, Urban (ed.) (Computer-aided Fluid Engineering AB (CFE AB), SE-602 10 Norrkoeping (Sweden)); Vidstrand, Patrik (Bergab AB, Goeteborg (Sweden)); Neretnieks, Ivars (Dept. of Chemical Engineering and Technology, Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden)); Wallin, Bill (Geokema, Lidingoe (Sweden))

2008-05-15

This report constitutes the outcome of a project called 'Aespoe models 2005'. The main objective of the project has been to provide a first step towards a new generation of numerical models of flow and transport, for the Aespoe HRL. In order to achieve this goal, work has been carried out along three parallel lines; discussion of basic concepts, compilation and analysis of data and model applications. A number of sub tasks are reported as appendices in the report. In fact, these appendices represent the main achievements of the project: an analysis of fracture properties, compilation of isotope and chemical data, dispersion and mixing in fractured rocks and model results. The conclusion of the project is that significant contributions to a new generation of Aespoe models have been obtained. It has further been demonstrated that working numerical simulations are up and running. Recommendations are provided for the continued work

Towards a new generation of flow and transport models for the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory. Main results from the project Aespoe models 2005

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Svensson, Urban; Vidstrand, Patrik; Neretnieks, Ivars; Wallin, Bill

2008-05-01

This report constitutes the outcome of a project called 'Aespoe models 2005'. The main objective of the project has been to provide a first step towards a new generation of numerical models of flow and transport, for the Aespoe HRL. In order to achieve this goal, work has been carried out along three parallel lines; discussion of basic concepts, compilation and analysis of data and model applications. A number of sub tasks are reported as appendices in the report. In fact, these appendices represent the main achievements of the project: an analysis of fracture properties, compilation of isotope and chemical data, dispersion and mixing in fractured rocks and model results. The conclusion of the project is that significant contributions to a new generation of Aespoe models have been obtained. It has further been demonstrated that working numerical simulations are up and running. Recommendations are provided for the continued work

Geomechanical/Geochemical Modeling Studies Conducted within the International DECOVALEX Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Birkholzer, J.T.; Rutqvist, J.; Sonnenthal, E.L.; Barr, D.; Chijimatsu, M.; Kolditz, O.; Liu, Q.; Oda, Y.; Wang, W.; Xie, M.; Zhang, C.

2005-01-01

The DECOVALEX project is an international cooperative project initiated by SKI, the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, with participation of about 10 international organizations. The general goal of this project is to encourage multidisciplinary interactive and cooperative research on modeling coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes in geologic formations in support of the performance assessment for underground storage of radioactive waste. One of the research tasks, initiated in 2004 by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), addresses the long-term impact of geomechanical and geochemical processes on the flow conditions near waste emplacement tunnels. Within this task, four international research teams conduct predictive analysis of the coupled processes in two generic repositories, using multiple approaches and different computer codes. Below, we give an overview of the research task and report its current status

Geomechanical/Geochemical Modeling Studies Conducted Within the International DECOVALEX Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

J.T. Birkholzer; J. Rutqvist; E.L. Sonnenthal; D. Barr; M.Chijimatsu; O. Kolditz; Q. Liu; Y. Oda; W. Wang; M. Xie; C. Zhang

2006-01-01

The DECOVALEX project is an international cooperative project initiated by SKI, the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, with participation of about 10 international organizations. The general goal of this project is to encourage multidisciplinary interactive and cooperative research on modeling coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes in geologic formations in support of the performance assessment for underground storage of radioactive waste. One of the research tasks, initiated in 2004 by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), addresses the long-term impact of geomechanical and geochemical processes on the flow conditions near waste emplacement tunnels. Within this task, four international research teams conduct predictive analysis of the coupled processes in two generic repositories, using multiple approaches and different computer codes. Below, we give an overview of the research task and report its current status

Refining multi-model projections of temperature extremes by evaluation against land-atmosphere coupling diagnostics

Science.gov (United States)

Sippel, Sebastian; Zscheischler, Jakob; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Orth, Rene; Reichstein, Markus; Vogel, Martha; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2017-05-01

The Earth's land surface and the atmosphere are strongly interlinked through the exchange of energy and matter. This coupled behaviour causes various land-atmosphere feedbacks, and an insufficient understanding of these feedbacks contributes to uncertain global climate model projections. For example, a crucial role of the land surface in exacerbating summer heat waves in midlatitude regions has been identified empirically for high-impact heat waves, but individual climate models differ widely in their respective representation of land-atmosphere coupling. Here, we compile an ensemble of 54 combinations of observations-based temperature (T) and evapotranspiration (ET) benchmarking datasets and investigate coincidences of T anomalies with ET anomalies as a proxy for land-atmosphere interactions during periods of anomalously warm temperatures. First, we demonstrate that a large fraction of state-of-the-art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archive produces systematically too frequent coincidences of high T anomalies with negative ET anomalies in midlatitude regions during the warm season and in several tropical regions year-round. These coincidences (high T, low ET) are closely related to the representation of temperature variability and extremes across the multi-model ensemble. Second, we derive a land-coupling constraint based on the spread of the T-ET datasets and consequently retain only a subset of CMIP5 models that produce a land-coupling behaviour that is compatible with these benchmark estimates. The constrained multi-model simulations exhibit more realistic temperature extremes of reduced magnitude in present climate in regions where models show substantial spread in T-ET coupling, i.e. biases in the model ensemble are consistently reduced. Also the multi-model simulations for the coming decades display decreased absolute temperature extremes in the constrained ensemble. On the other hand, the differences between projected

Global asymptotic stability of density dependent integral population projection models.

Science.gov (United States)

Rebarber, Richard; Tenhumberg, Brigitte; Townley, Stuart

2012-02-01

Many stage-structured density dependent populations with a continuum of stages can be naturally modeled using nonlinear integral projection models. In this paper, we study a trichotomy of global stability result for a class of density dependent systems which include a Platte thistle model. Specifically, we identify those systems parameters for which zero is globally asymptotically stable, parameters for which there is a positive asymptotically stable equilibrium, and parameters for which there is no asymptotically stable equilibrium. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Measures to prevent global warming, and NEDO's energy-saving model projects; Chikyu ondanka boshi taisaku to NEDO sho energy model jigyo

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-09-01

Described herein are United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the world AIJ (Activities Implemented Jointly) projects, and the Japan's measures and NEDO's energy-saving model projects therefor. NEDO has been inviting the public to join the contests for the projects to be implemented as part of the AIJ Japan program for the first time since April 1996. A total of 11 projects were adopted in July, including the model project for recovering heat from red-hot coke with inert gas, to be implemented by NEDO in China. After the first invitation, an individual proposal will be accepted and examined for which no time limit is set. The NEDO's model projects approved so far include demonstration studies on facilities for effective utilization of paper-making sludge, waste heat recovery at steel furnaces, energy-saving at electric furnaces for alloys, effective utilization of waste heat at garbage incinerators, and power saving at cement kilns. (NEDO)

Hydrogeological model of the territory of Kowsar hydraulic project

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Orekhov Vyacheslav Valentinovich

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Mathematical hydrogeology model of the territory of Kowsar Project was created with account for the results of the engineering surveys and hydro geological monitoring, which was conducted in the process of Kowsar Project construction. In order to create the model in the present work a universal computer system Ansys was used, which implements the finite element method and solid modeling technology, allowing to solve the filtration problem with the use of thermal analogy. The three-dimensional geometric model was built with use of the principle “hard body” modeling, which displays the main line of the territory relief, including the created water reservoir, geological structure (anticline Duk and the main lithological complexes developed within the territory. In the limestone mass As here is a zone characterized by water permeability on territory of Kowsar Project, and a layer characterized by seepage feeding, which occurs outside the considered territory. The water reservoir is a source of the change of hydro geological situation. The results of field observations witness, that the levels of underground waters within the area of the main structures reacts almost instantly on the water level change in the water reservoir; the delay period of levels change is not more than 1,5…2,0 weeks at maximum distance from the water reservoir. These particularities of the hydro geological regime allow using the steady-state scheme of the decision of forecast problems. The mass of limestone As, containing the structures of the Kowsar Project, is not homogeneous and anisotropy in its seepage characteristics. The heterogeneity is conditioned by exogenous influence on the mass up to the depth of 100…150 m. The seepage anisotropy of the mass is expressed by the difference of water permeability of the mass along and across the layers for almost one order. The structures of Kowsar Project is presented by a dam, grouting curtain on axis of the dam and

Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Project Strategy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bader, D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

2017-09-18

The E3SM project will assert and maintain an international scientific leadership position in the development of Earth system and climate models at the leading edge of scientific knowledge and computational capabilities. With its collaborators, it will demonstrate its leadership by using these models to achieve the goal of designing, executing, and analyzing climate and Earth system simulations that address the most critical scientific questions for the nation and DOE.

Disease management projects and the Chronic Care Model in action: baseline qualitative research

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Background Disease management programs, especially those based on the Chronic Care Model (CCM), are increasingly common in the Netherlands. While disease management programs have been well-researched quantitatively and economically, less qualitative research has been done. The overall aim of the study is to explore how disease management programs are implemented within primary care settings in the Netherlands; this paper focuses on the early development and implementation stages of five disease management programs in the primary care setting, based on interviews with project leadership teams. Methods Eleven semi-structured interviews were conducted at the five selected sites with sixteen professionals interviewed; all project directors and managers were interviewed. The interviews focused on each project’s chosen chronic illness (diabetes, eating disorders, COPD, multi-morbidity, CVRM) and project plan, barriers to development and implementation, the project leaders’ action and reactions, as well as their roles and responsibilities, and disease management strategies. Analysis was inductive and interpretive, based on the content of the interviews. After analysis, the results of this research on disease management programs and the Chronic Care Model are viewed from a traveling technology framework. Results This analysis uncovered four themes that can be mapped to disease management and the Chronic Care Model: (1) changing the health care system, (2) patient-centered care, (3) technological systems and barriers, and (4) integrating projects into the larger system. Project leaders discussed the paths, both direct and indirect, for transforming the health care system to one that addresses chronic illness. Patient-centered care was highlighted as needed and a paradigm shift for many. Challenges with technological systems were pervasive. Project leaders managed the expenses of a traveling technology, including the social, financial, and administration involved

A multistate model to project elderly disability in case of limited data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Gaag, N.L.; Bijwaard, G.E.; de Beer, J.A.A.; Bonneux, L.

2015-01-01

Background : Prevalence of disability depends on when a person becomes disabled (disability incidence) and when he or she dies (mortality). Multistate projection models can take into account both underlying processes of disability prevalence. The application of these models, however, is often

Demonstrating sustainable energy: A review-based model of sustainable energy demonstration projects

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bossink, Bart

2017-01-01

This article develops a model of sustainable energy demonstration projects, based on a review of 229 scientific publications on demonstrations in renewable and sustainable energy. The model addresses the basic organizational characteristics (aim, cooperative form, and physical location) and learning

Innovations in project activities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Serbskaya O.V.

2016-11-01

Full Text Available this article considers the ways of project management, models of project management: classical model and the model of flexible designing Agile, pays more attention to the process of project management using Agile model and to the problems of using the project management models in modern conditions.

Developing a Massively Parallel Forward Projection Radiography Model for Large-Scale Industrial Applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bauerle, Matthew [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2014-08-01

This project utilizes Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) to compute radiograph simulations for arbitrary objects. The generation of radiographs, also known as the forward projection imaging model, is computationally intensive and not widely utilized. The goal of this research is to develop a massively parallel algorithm that can compute forward projections for objects with a trillion voxels (3D pixels). To achieve this end, the data are divided into blocks that can each t into GPU memory. The forward projected image is also divided into segments to allow for future parallelization and to avoid needless computations.

Suggestion of Islamic Insurance Company Model

OpenAIRE

Abdullah Ibrahim Nazal

2015-01-01

This study is one of very few studies which have investigated Islamic Insurance Companies as solution. It explained its operations also comparing with Traditional Insurance Companies and theoretical Islamic insurance models. As result to this study Islamic Insurance companies are profit organization. It helps Islamic banks but it costs customer to face expect risk. Islamic Insurance companies have many ways to get profits and consider all customers installments grants. Its operation gap comes...

FORMATION OF THE PROJECT CONCEPT OF START PRE ACCELERATOR BY WAY OF BUSINESS MODEL BUILDING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Роман Васильович ФЕЩУР

2016-02-01

Full Text Available We have described the concept of the project of enterprise functioning, the main activity of which is the creation and implementation of training programs at the pre-investment stage and commercialize creative startups to represent them in the form attractive to investors. We also formed a flexible business model of enterprise-operator pre-accelerator at the base of Template A. Osterwalder. We have discovered the essence of the value proposition of enterprise-pre-accelerator. The company interaction with customers, among the main ones is: holders of startups, coworking, outsourcing companies, universities, "business angels" and sponsors were described. We have disclosed the role of human resources that create and convey to customers information about developed valuable suggestions. The basic activities of created business - production, customer satisfaction and building a platform (network were given. The risks of the project were found and their quantitative assessment was given. We noted that the successful implementation of each startup provides the appearance of not only economic but also social impact - creating new jobs, workers are provided with decent wages.

Computer Hardware, Advanced Mathematics and Model Physics pilot project final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-05-01

The Computer Hardware, Advanced Mathematics and Model Physics (CHAMMP) Program was launched in January, 1990. A principal objective of the program has been to utilize the emerging capabilities of massively parallel scientific computers in the challenge of regional scale predictions of decade-to-century climate change. CHAMMP has already demonstrated the feasibility of achieving a 10,000 fold increase in computational throughput for climate modeling in this decade. What we have also recognized, however, is the need for new algorithms and computer software to capitalize on the radically new computing architectures. This report describes the pilot CHAMMP projects at the DOE National Laboratories and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The pilot projects were selected to identify the principal challenges to CHAMMP and to entrain new scientific computing expertise. The success of some of these projects has aided in the definition of the CHAMMP scientific plan. Many of the papers in this report have been or will be submitted for publication in the open literature. Readers are urged to consult with the authors directly for questions or comments about their papers

Project ECHO: A Telementoring Network Model for Continuing Professional Development.

Science.gov (United States)

Arora, Sanjeev; Kalishman, Summers G; Thornton, Karla A; Komaromy, Miriam S; Katzman, Joanna G; Struminger, Bruce B; Rayburn, William F

2017-01-01

A major challenge with current systems of CME is the inability to translate the explosive growth in health care knowledge into daily practice. Project ECHO (Extension for Community Healthcare Outcomes) is a telementoring network designed for continuing professional development (CPD) and improving patient outcomes. The purpose of this article was to describe how the model has complied with recommendations from several authoritative reports about redesigning and enhancing CPD. This model links primary care clinicians through a knowledge network with an interprofessional team of specialists from an academic medical center who provide telementoring and ongoing education enabling community clinicians to treat patients with a variety of complex conditions. Knowledge and skills are shared during weekly condition-specific videoconferences. The model exemplifies learning as described in the seven levels of CPD by Moore (participation, satisfaction, learning, competence, performance, patient, and community health). The model is also aligned with recommendations from four national reports intended to redesign knowledge transfer in improving health care. Efforts in learning sessions focus on information that is relevant to practice, focus on evidence, education methodology, tailoring of recommendations to individual needs and community resources, and interprofessionalism. Project ECHO serves as a telementoring network model of CPD that aligns with current best practice recommendations for CME. This transformative initiative has the potential to serve as a leading model for larger scale CPD, nationally and globally, to enhance access to care, improve quality, and reduce cost.

The sigma model on complex projective superspaces

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Candu, Constantin; Mitev, Vladimir; Schomerus, Volker [DESY, Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Quella, Thomas [Amsterdam Univ. (Netherlands). Inst. for Theoretical Physics; Saleur, Hubert [CEA Saclay, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Inst. de Physique Theorique; USC, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Physics Dept.

2009-08-15

The sigma model on projective superspaces CP{sup S-1} {sup vertical} {sup stroke} {sup S} gives rise to a continuous family of interacting 2D conformal field theories which are parametrized by the curvature radius R and the theta angle {theta}. Our main goal is to determine the spectrum of the model, non-perturbatively as a function of both parameters. We succeed to do so for all open boundary conditions preserving the full global symmetry of the model. In string theory parlor, these correspond to volume filling branes that are equipped with a monopole line bundle and connection. The paper consists of two parts. In the first part, we approach the problem within the continuum formulation. Combining combinatorial arguments with perturbative studies and some simple free field calculations, we determine a closed formula for the partition function of the theory. This is then tested numerically in the second part. There we propose a spin chain regularization of the CP{sup S-1} {sup vertical} {sup stroke} {sup S} model with open boundary conditions and use it to determine the spectrum at the conformal fixed point. The numerical results are in remarkable agreement with the continuum analysis. (orig.)

The sigma model on complex projective superspaces

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Candu, Constantin; Mitev, Vladimir; Schomerus, Volker; Quella, Thomas; Saleur, Hubert; USC, Los Angeles, CA

2009-08-01

The sigma model on projective superspaces CP S-1 vertical stroke S gives rise to a continuous family of interacting 2D conformal field theories which are parametrized by the curvature radius R and the theta angle θ. Our main goal is to determine the spectrum of the model, non-perturbatively as a function of both parameters. We succeed to do so for all open boundary conditions preserving the full global symmetry of the model. In string theory parlor, these correspond to volume filling branes that are equipped with a monopole line bundle and connection. The paper consists of two parts. In the first part, we approach the problem within the continuum formulation. Combining combinatorial arguments with perturbative studies and some simple free field calculations, we determine a closed formula for the partition function of the theory. This is then tested numerically in the second part. There we propose a spin chain regularization of the CP S-1 vertical stroke S model with open boundary conditions and use it to determine the spectrum at the conformal fixed point. The numerical results are in remarkable agreement with the continuum analysis. (orig.)

Collaborative Management of Complex Major Construction Projects: AnyLogic-Based Simulation Modelling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Na Zhao

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Complex supply chain system collaborative management of major construction projects effectively integrates the different participants in the construction project. This paper establishes a simulation model based on AnyLogic to reveal the collaborative elements in the complex supply chain management system and the modes of action as well as the transmission problems of the intent information. Thus it is promoting the participants to become an organism with coordinated development and coevolution. This study can help improve the efficiency and management of the complex system of major construction projects.

Long-term durum wheat monoculture: modelling and future projection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ettore Bernardoni

2012-03-01

Full Text Available The potential effects of future climate change on grain production of a winter durum wheat cropping system were investigated. Based on future climate change projections, derived from a statistical downscaling process applied to the HadCM3 general circulation model and referred to two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B1, the response on yield and aboveground biomass (AGB and the variation in total organic carbon (TOC were explored. The software used in this work is an hybrid dynamic simulation model able to simulate, under different pedoclimatic conditions, the processes involved in cropping system such as crop growth and development, water and nitrogen balance. It implements different approaches in order to ensure accurate simulation of the mainprocess related to soil-crop-atmosphere continuum.The model was calibrated using soil data, crop yield, AGB and phenology coming from a long-term experiment, located in Apulia region. The calibration was performed using data collected in the period 1978–1990; validation was carried out on the 1991–2009 data. Phenology simulation was sufficiently accurate, showing some limitation only in predicting the physiological maturity. Yields and AGBs were predicted with an acceptable accuracy during both calibration and validation. CRM resulted always close to optimum value, EF in every case scored positive value, the value of index r2 was good, although in some cases values lower than 0.6 were calculated. Slope of the linear regression equation between measured and simulated values was always close to 1, indicating an overall good performance of the model. Both future climate scenarios led to a general increase in yields but a slightly decrease in AGB values. Data showed variations in the total production and yield among the different periods due to the climate variation. TOC evolution suggests that the combination of temperature and precipitation is the main factor affecting TOC variation under future scenarios

The impact of applying product-modelling techniques in configurator projects

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hvam, Lars; Kristjansdottir, Katrin; Shafiee, Sara

2018-01-01

This paper aims to increase understanding of the impact of using product-modelling techniques to structure and formalise knowledge in configurator projects. Companies that provide customised products increasingly apply configurators in support of sales and design activities, reaping benefits...... that include shorter lead times, improved quality of specifications and products, and lower overall product costs. The design and implementation of configurators are a challenging task that calls for scientifically based modelling techniques to support the formal representation of configurator knowledge. Even...... the phenomenon model and information model are considered visually, (2) non-UML-based modelling techniques, in which only the phenomenon model is considered and (3) non-formal modelling techniques. This study analyses the impact to companies from increased availability of product knowledge and improved control...

A mathematical model for crashing projects by considering time, cost, quality and risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amin Mahmoudi

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Employers are looking for reducing execution time and maintaining the quality of the projects that are the main objective of the projects. In this article, we focus on crashing projects by con-sidering different factors such as cost, time, quality and risk. For the proposed integer linear model, cost of conformance and cost of non-conformance are considered as parts of the costs of quality of deliverables in projects. The cost of conformance consists of the costs of training the project team, inspection and test of deliverables. The cost of non-conformance also includes costs of rework and scrap. Project risk management is one of the important aspects of the pro-jects. The present study also considers the impact of risks, which is highly applicable in projects with a high level of uncertainty. Results are presented using integer programming approach with the aim of minimizing the costs of the project.

What spatial scales are believable for climate model projections of sea surface temperature?

Science.gov (United States)

Kwiatkowski, Lester; Halloran, Paul R.; Mumby, Peter J.; Stephenson, David B.

2014-09-01

Earth system models (ESMs) provide high resolution simulations of variables such as sea surface temperature (SST) that are often used in off-line biological impact models. Coral reef modellers have used such model outputs extensively to project both regional and global changes to coral growth and bleaching frequency. We assess model skill at capturing sub-regional climatologies and patterns of historical warming. This study uses an established wavelet-based spatial comparison technique to assess the skill of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 models to capture spatial SST patterns in coral regions. We show that models typically have medium to high skill at capturing climatological spatial patterns of SSTs within key coral regions, with model skill typically improving at larger spatial scales (≥4°). However models have much lower skill at modelling historical warming patters and are shown to often perform no better than chance at regional scales (e.g. Southeast Asian) and worse than chance at finer scales (coral bleaching frequency and other marine processes linked to SST warming.