WorldWideScience

Sample records for model predictions strains

  1. Ratchetting strain prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noban, Mohammad; Jahed, Hamid

    2007-01-01

    A time-efficient method for predicting ratchetting strain is proposed. The ratchetting strain at any cycle is determined by finding the ratchetting rate at only a few cycles. This determination is done by first defining the trajectory of the origin of stress in the deviatoric stress space and then incorporating this moving origin into a cyclic plasticity model. It is shown that at the beginning of the loading, the starting point of this trajectory coincides with the initial stress origin and approaches the mean stress, displaying a power-law relationship with the number of loading cycles. The method of obtaining this trajectory from a standard uniaxial asymmetric cyclic loading is presented. Ratchetting rates are calculated with the help of this trajectory and through the use of a constitutive cyclic plasticity model which incorporates deviatoric stresses and back stresses that are measured with respect to this moving frame. The proposed model is used to predict the ratchetting strain of two types of steels under single- and multi-step loadings. Results obtained agree well with the available experimental measurements

  2. Predicting employees' well-being using work-family conflict and job strain models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimi, Leila; Karimi, Hamidreza; Nouri, Aboulghassem

    2011-04-01

    The present study examined the effects of two models of work–family conflict (WFC) and job-strain on the job-related and context-free well-being of employees. The participants of the study consisted of Iranian employees from a variety of organizations. The effects of three dimensions of the job-strain model and six forms of WFC on affective well-being were assessed. The results of hierarchical multiple regression analysis revealed that the number of working hours, strain-based work interfering with family life (WIF) along with job characteristic variables (i.e. supervisory support, job demands and job control) all make a significant contribution to the prediction of job-related well-being. On the other hand, strain-based WIF and family interfering with work (FIW) significantly predicted context-free well-being. Implications are drawn and recommendations made regarding future research and interventions in the workplace.

  3. Modeling Stress Strain Relationships and Predicting Failure Probabilities For Graphite Core Components

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duffy, Stephen [Cleveland State Univ., Cleveland, OH (United States)

    2013-09-09

    This project will implement inelastic constitutive models that will yield the requisite stress-strain information necessary for graphite component design. Accurate knowledge of stress states (both elastic and inelastic) is required to assess how close a nuclear core component is to failure. Strain states are needed to assess deformations in order to ascertain serviceability issues relating to failure, e.g., whether too much shrinkage has taken place for the core to function properly. Failure probabilities, as opposed to safety factors, are required in order to capture the bariability in failure strength in tensile regimes. The current stress state is used to predict the probability of failure. Stochastic failure models will be developed that can accommodate possible material anisotropy. This work will also model material damage (i.e., degradation of mechanical properties) due to radiation exposure. The team will design tools for components fabricated from nuclear graphite. These tools must readily interact with finite element software--in particular, COMSOL, the software algorithm currently being utilized by the Idaho National Laboratory. For the eleastic response of graphite, the team will adopt anisotropic stress-strain relationships available in COMSO. Data from the literature will be utilized to characterize the appropriate elastic material constants.

  4. Modeling Stress Strain Relationships and Predicting Failure Probabilities For Graphite Core Components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffy, Stephen

    2013-01-01

    This project will implement inelastic constitutive models that will yield the requisite stress-strain information necessary for graphite component design. Accurate knowledge of stress states (both elastic and inelastic) is required to assess how close a nuclear core component is to failure. Strain states are needed to assess deformations in order to ascertain serviceability issues relating to failure, e.g., whether too much shrinkage has taken place for the core to function properly. Failure probabilities, as opposed to safety factors, are required in order to capture the bariability in failure strength in tensile regimes. The current stress state is used to predict the probability of failure. Stochastic failure models will be developed that can accommodate possible material anisotropy. This work will also model material damage (i.e., degradation of mechanical properties) due to radiation exposure. The team will design tools for components fabricated from nuclear graphite. These tools must readily interact with finite element software--in particular, COMSOL, the software algorithm currently being utilized by the Idaho National Laboratory. For the eleastic response of graphite, the team will adopt anisotropic stress-strain relationships available in COMSO. Data from the literature will be utilized to characterize the appropriate elastic material constants.

  5. On the Effect of Thermophysical Properties of Clothing on the Heat Strain Predicted by PHS Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    d'Ambrosio Alfano, Francesca Romana; Palella, Boris Igor; Riccio, Giuseppe; Malchaire, Jacques

    2016-03-01

    Procedures and equations reported in ISO 9920 for the correction of basic thermophysical clothing properties taking into account pumping effect and air movement are very different from those used by the Predicted Heat Strain (PHS) model in ISO 7933. To study the effect of these differences on the assessment of hot environments using the PHS model, an analysis focusing on the modelling of the dynamic thermal insulation and the vapour resistance of the clothing reported in ISO 9920 and ISO 7933 standards will be discussed in this paper. The results are useful evidence to start a discussion on the best practice for dealing with clothing thermophysical properties and underline the need to harmonize the entire set of standards in the field of the Ergonomics of the Thermal Environment. ISO 7933 is presently under revision. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society.

  6. Prediction of slope stability based on numerical modeling of stress–strain state of rocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozhogulov Nifadyev, KCh, VI; Usmanov, SF

    2018-03-01

    The paper presents the developed technique for the estimation of rock mass stability based on the finite element modeling of stress–strain state of rocks. The modeling results on the pit wall landslide as a flow of particles along a sloped surface are described.

  7. Micromechanical Model for Deformation in Solids with Universal Predictions for Stress-Strain Curves and Slip Avalanches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dahmen, Karin A.; Ben-Zion, Yehuda; Uhl, Jonathan T.

    2009-01-01

    A basic micromechanical model for deformation of solids with only one tuning parameter (weakening ε) is introduced. The model can reproduce observed stress-strain curves, acoustic emissions and related power spectra, event statistics, and geometrical properties of slip, with a continuous phase transition from brittle to ductile behavior. Exact universal predictions are extracted using mean field theory and renormalization group tools. The results agree with recent experimental observations and simulations of related models for dislocation dynamics, material damage, and earthquake statistics.

  8. Predicting creep rupture from early strain data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmstroem, Stefan; Auerkari, Pertti

    2009-01-01

    To extend creep life modelling from classical rupture modelling, a robust and effective parametric strain model has been developed. The model can reproduce with good accuracy all parts of the creep curve, economically utilising the available rupture models. The resulting combined model can also be used to predict rupture from the available strain data, and to further improve the rupture models. The methodology can utilise unfailed specimen data for life assessment at lower stress levels than what is possible from rupture data alone. Master curves for creep strain and rupture have been produced for oxygen-free phosphorus-doped (OFP) copper with a maximum testing time of 51,000 h. Values of time to specific strain at given stress (40-165 MPa) and temperature (125-350 deg. C) were fitted to the models in the strain range of 0.1-38%. With typical inhomogeneous multi-batch creep data, the combined strain and rupture modelling involves the steps of investigation of the data quality, extraction of elastic and creep strain response, rupture modelling, data set balancing and creep strain modelling. Finally, the master curves for strain and rupture are tested and validated for overall fitting efficiency. With the Wilshire equation as the basis for the rupture model, the strain model applies classical parametric principles with an Arrhenius type of thermal activation and a power law type of stress dependence for the strain rate. The strain model also assumes that the processes of primary and secondary creep can be reasonably correlated. The rupture model represents a clear improvement over previous models in the range of the test data. The creep strain information from interrupted and running tests were assessed together with the rupture data investigating the possibility of rupture model improvement towards lower stress levels by inverse utilisation of the combined rupture based strain model. The developed creep strain model together with the improved rupture model is

  9. An exponential strain dependent Rusinek–Klepaczko model for flow stress prediction in austenitic stainless steel 304 at elevated temperatures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amit Kumar Gupta

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, to predict flow stress of Austenitic Stainless Steel (ASS 304 at elevated temperatures the extended Rusinek–Klepaczko (RK model has been modified using an exponential strain dependent term for dynamic strain aging (DSA region. Isothermal tensile tests are conducted on ASS 304 for a temperature range of 323–923 K with an interval of 50 K and at strain rates of 0.0001 s−1, 0.001 s−1, 0.01 s−1 and 0.1 s−1. DSA phenomenon is observed from 623 to 923 K at 0.0001 s−1, 0.001 s−1 and 0.01 s−1. Material constants are calculated using data obtained from these tensile tests for non-DSA and DSA region separately. The predicted results from the RK model are compared with the experimental data to check the accuracy of the constitutive relation. It is observed that to find out the constants of this model, some initial assumptions are required, and these initial values affect the predicted values. Hence, Genetic Algorithm (GA is used to optimize the constants for RK model. Statistical measures such as the correlation coefficient, the average absolute error and standard deviation are used to measure the accuracy of the model. The resulting values of the correlation coefficient for ASS 304 for non-DSA and DSA region using modified extended RK model are 0.9828 and 0.9701. This modified, extended RK model is compared with Johnson–Cook (JC, Zerilli–Armstrong (ZA and Arrhenius models and it is observed that specifically in DSA region, the modified extended RK model gives highly accurate predictions.

  10. Demonstration of a multiscale modeling technique: prediction of the stress–strain response of light activated shape memory polymers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beblo, Richard V; Weiland, Lisa Mauck

    2010-01-01

    Presented is a multiscale modeling method applied to light activated shape memory polymers (LASMPs). LASMPs are a new class of shape memory polymer (SMPs) being developed for adaptive structures applications where a thermal stimulus is undesirable. LASMP developmental emphasis is placed on optical manipulation of Young's modulus. A multiscale modeling approach is employed to anticipate the soft and hard state moduli solely on the basis of a proposed molecular formulation. Employing such a model shows promise for expediting down-selection of favorable formulations for synthesis and testing, and subsequently accelerating LASMP development. An empirical adaptation of the model is also presented which has applications in system design once a formulation has been identified. The approach employs rotational isomeric state theory to build a molecular scale model of the polymer chain yielding a list of distances between the predicted crosslink locations, or r-values. The r-values are then fitted with Johnson probability density functions and used with Boltzmann statistical mechanics to predict stress as a function of the strain of the phantom polymer network. Empirical adaptation for design adds junction constraint theory to the modeling process. Junction constraint theory includes the effects of neighboring chain interactions. Empirical fitting results in numerically accurate Young's modulus predictions. The system is modular in nature and thus lends itself well to being adapted to other polymer systems and development applications

  11. Forming limit curves of DP600 determined in high-speed Nakajima tests and predicted by two different strain-rate-sensitive models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiß-Borkowski, Nathalie; Lian, Junhe; Camberg, Alan; Tröster, Thomas; Münstermann, Sebastian; Bleck, Wolfgang; Gese, Helmut; Richter, Helmut

    2018-05-01

    Determination of forming limit curves (FLC) to describe the multi-axial forming behaviour is possible via either experimental measurements or theoretical calculations. In case of theoretical determination, different models are available and some of them consider the influence of strain rate in the quasi-static and dynamic strain rate regime. Consideration of the strain rate effect is necessary as many material characteristics such as yield strength and failure strain are affected by loading speed. In addition, the start of instability and necking depends not only on the strain hardening coefficient but also on the strain rate sensitivity parameter. Therefore, the strain rate dependency of materials for both plasticity and the failure behaviour is taken into account in crash simulations for strain rates up to 1000 s-1 and FLC can be used for the description of the material's instability behaviour at multi-axial loading. In this context, due to the strain rate dependency of the material behaviour, an extrapolation of the quasi-static FLC to dynamic loading condition is not reliable. Therefore, experimental high-speed Nakajima tests or theoretical models shall be used to determine the FLC at high strain rates. In this study, two theoretical models for determination of FLC at high strain rates and results of experimental high-speed Nakajima tests for a DP600 are presented. One of the theoretical models is the numerical algorithm CRACH as part of the modular material and failure model MF GenYld+CrachFEM 4.2, which is based on an initial imperfection. Furthermore, the extended modified maximum force criterion considering the strain rate effect is also used to predict the FLC. These two models are calibrated by the quasi-static and dynamic uniaxial tensile tests and bulge tests. The predictions for the quasi-static and dynamic FLC by both models are presented and compared with the experimental results.

  12. Prediction of stress-strain state of municipal solid waste with application of soft soil creep model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ofrikhter Vadim Grigor'evich

    Full Text Available The deformation of municipal solid waste is a complex process caused by the nature of MSW, the properties of which differ from the properties of common soils. The mass of municipal solid waste shows the mixed behaviour partially similar to granular soils, and partially - to cohesive. So, one of mechanical characteristics of MSW is the cohesion typical to cohesive soils, but at the same time the filtration coefficient of MSW has an order of 1 m/day that is characteristic for granular soils. It has been established that MSW massif can be simulated like the soil reinforced by randomly oriented fibers. Today a significant amount of the verified and well proved software products are available for numerical modelling of soils. The majority of them use finite element method (FEM. The soft soil creep model (SSC-model seems to be the most suitable for modelling of municipal solid waste, as it allows estimating the development of settlements in time with separation of primary and secondary consolidation. Unlike the soft soil, one of the factors of secondary consolidation of MSW is biological degradation, the influence of which is possible to consider at the definition of the modified parameters essential for soft soil model. Application of soft soil creep model allows carrying out the calculation of stress-strain state of waste from the beginning of landfill filling up to any moment of time both during the period of operation and in postclosure period. The comparative calculation presented in the paper is executed in Plaxis software using the soft-soil creep model in contrast to the calculation using the composite model of MSW. All the characteristics for SSC-model were derived from the composite model. The comparative results demonstrate the advantage of SSC-model for prediction of the development of MSW stress-strain state. As far as after the completion of the biodegradation processes MSW behaviour is similar to cohesion-like soils, the demonstrated

  13. Application of the predicted heat strain model in development of localized, threshold-based heat stress management guidelines for the construction industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowlinson, Steve; Jia, Yunyan Andrea

    2014-04-01

    Existing heat stress risk management guidelines recommended by international standards are not practical for the construction industry which needs site supervision staff to make instant managerial decisions to mitigate heat risks. The ability of the predicted heat strain (PHS) model [ISO 7933 (2004). Ergonomics of the thermal environment analytical determination and interpretation of heat stress using calculation of the predicted heat strain. Geneva: International Standard Organisation] to predict maximum allowable exposure time (D lim) has now enabled development of localized, action-triggering and threshold-based guidelines for implementation by lay frontline staff on construction sites. This article presents a protocol for development of two heat stress management tools by applying the PHS model to its full potential. One of the tools is developed to facilitate managerial decisions on an optimized work-rest regimen for paced work. The other tool is developed to enable workers' self-regulation during self-paced work.

  14. A quantitative prediction model of SCC rate for nuclear structure materials in high temperature water based on crack tip creep strain rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, F.Q.; Xue, H.; Zhao, L.Y.; Fang, X.R.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Creep is considered to be the primary mechanical factor of crack tip film degradation. • The prediction model of SCC rate is based on crack tip creep strain rate. • The SCC rate calculated at the secondary stage of creep is recommended. • The effect of stress intensity factor on SCC growth rate is discussed. - Abstract: The quantitative prediction of stress corrosion cracking (SCC) of structure materials is essential in safety assessment of nuclear power plants. A new quantitative prediction model is proposed by combining the Ford–Andresen model, a crack tip creep model and an elastic–plastic finite element method. The creep at the crack tip is considered to be the primary mechanical factor of protective film degradation, and the creep strain rate at the crack tip is suggested as primary mechanical factor in predicting the SCC rate. The SCC rates at secondary stage of creep are recommended when using the approach introduced in this study to predict the SCC rates of materials in high temperature water. The proposed approach can be used to understand the SCC crack growth in structural materials of light water reactors

  15. Prediction of crack propagation and arrest in X100 natural gas transmission pipelines with a strain rate dependent damage model (SRDD). Part 2: Large scale pipe models with gas depressurisation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oikonomidis, F.; Shterenlikht, A.; Truman, C.E.

    2014-01-01

    Part 1 of this paper described a specimen for the measurement of high strain rate flow and fracture properties of pipe material and for tuning a strain rate dependent damage model (SRDD). In part 2 the tuned SRDD model is used for the simulation of axial crack propagation and arrest in X100 natural gas pipelines. Linear pressure drop model was adopted behind the crack tip, and an exponential gas depressurisation model was used ahead of the crack tip. The model correctly predicted the crack initiation (burst) pressure, the crack speed and the crack arrest length. Strain rates between 1000 s −1 and 3000 s −1 immediately ahead of the crack tip are predicted, giving a strong indication that a strain rate material model is required for the structural integrity assessment of the natural gas pipelines. The models predict the stress triaxiality of about 0.65 for at least 1 m ahead of the crack tip, gradually dropping to 0.5 at distances of about 5–7 m ahead of the crack tip. Finally, the models predicted a linear drop in crack tip opening angle (CTOA) from about 11−12° at the onset of crack propagation down to 7−8° at crack arrest. Only the lower of these values agree with those reported in the literature for quasi-static measurements. This discrepancy might indicate substantial strain rate dependence in CTOA. - Highlights: • Finite element simulations of 3 burst tests of X100 pipes are detailed. • Strain rate dependent damage model, tuned on small scale X100 samples, was used. • The models correctly predict burst pressure, crack speed and crack arrest length. • The model predicts a crack length dependent critical CTOA. • The strain rate dependent damage model is verified as mesh independent

  16. Metabolomics-based prediction models of yeast strains for screening of metabolites contributing to ethanol stress tolerance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashim, Z.; Fukusaki, E.

    2016-06-01

    The increased demand for clean, sustainable and renewable energy resources has driven the development of various microbial systems to produce biofuels. One of such systems is the ethanol-producing yeast. Although yeast produces ethanol naturally using its native pathways, production yield is low and requires improvement for commercial biofuel production. Moreover, ethanol is toxic to yeast and thus ethanol tolerance should be improved to further enhance ethanol production. In this study, we employed metabolomics-based strategy using 30 single-gene deleted yeast strains to construct multivariate models for ethanol tolerance and screen metabolites that relate to ethanol sensitivity/tolerance. The information obtained from this study can be used as an input for strain improvement via metabolic engineering.

  17. Strain limit criteria to predict failure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flanders, H.E.

    1995-01-01

    In recent years extensive effort has been expended to qualify existing structures for conditions that are beyond the original design basis. Determination of the component failure load is useful for this type of evaluation. This paper presents criteria based upon strain limits to predict the load at failure. The failure modes addressed are excessive plastic deformations, localized plastic strains, and structural instability. The effects of analytical method sophistication, as built configurations, material properties degradation, and stress state are addressed by the criteria

  18. A Modified Johnson-Cook Model for Sheet Metal Forming at Elevated Temperatures and Its Application for Cooled Stress-Strain Curve and Spring-Back Prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duc-Toan, Nguyen; Tien-Long, Banh; Young-Suk, Kim; Dong-Won, Jung

    2011-01-01

    In this study, a modified Johnson-Cook (J-C) model and an innovated method to determine (J-C) material parameters are proposed to predict more correctly stress-strain curve for tensile tests in elevated temperatures. A MATLAB tool is used to determine material parameters by fitting a curve to follow Ludwick's hardening law at various elevated temperatures. Those hardening law parameters are then utilized to determine modified (J-C) model material parameters. The modified (J-C) model shows the better prediction compared to the conventional one. As the first verification, an FEM tensile test simulation based on the isotropic hardening model for boron sheet steel at elevated temperatures was carried out via a user-material subroutine, using an explicit finite element code, and compared with the measurements. The temperature decrease of all elements due to the air cooling process was then calculated when considering the modified (J-C) model and coded to VUMAT subroutine for tensile test simulation of cooling process. The modified (J-C) model showed the good agreement between the simulation results and the corresponding experiments. The second investigation was applied for V-bending spring-back prediction of magnesium alloy sheets at elevated temperatures. Here, the combination of proposed J-C model with modified hardening law considering the unusual plastic behaviour for magnesium alloy sheet was adopted for FEM simulation of V-bending spring-back prediction and shown the good comparability with corresponding experiments.

  19. Prediction (early recognition) of emerging flu strain clusters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, X.; Phillips, J. C.

    2017-08-01

    Early detection of incipient dominant influenza strains is one of the key steps in the design and manufacture of an effective annual influenza vaccine. Here we report the most current results for pandemic H3N2 flu vaccine design. A 2006 model of dimensional reduction (compaction) of viral mutational complexity derives two-dimensional Cartesian mutational maps (2DMM) that exhibit an emergent dominant strain as a small and distinct cluster of as few as 10 strains. We show that recent extensions of this model can detect incipient strains one year or more in advance of their dominance in the human population. Our structural interpretation of our unexpectedly rich 2DMM involves sialic acid, and is based on nearly 6000 strains in a series of recent 3-year time windows. Vaccine effectiveness is predicted best by analyzing dominant mutational epitopes.

  20. Haldane model under nonuniform strain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Yen-Hung; Castro, Eduardo V.; Cazalilla, Miguel A.

    2017-10-01

    We study the Haldane model under strain using a tight-binding approach, and compare the obtained results with the continuum-limit approximation. As in graphene, nonuniform strain leads to a time-reversal preserving pseudomagnetic field that induces (pseudo-)Landau levels. Unlike a real magnetic field, strain lifts the degeneracy of the zeroth pseudo-Landau levels at different valleys. Moreover, for the zigzag edge under uniaxial strain, strain removes the degeneracy within the pseudo-Landau levels by inducing a tilt in their energy dispersion. The latter arises from next-to-leading order corrections to the continuum-limit Hamiltonian, which are absent for a real magnetic field. We show that, for the lowest pseudo-Landau levels in the Haldane model, the dominant contribution to the tilt is different from graphene. In addition, although strain does not strongly modify the dispersion of the edge states, their interplay with the pseudo-Landau levels is different for the armchair and zigzag ribbons. Finally, we study the effect of strain in the band structure of the Haldane model at the critical point of the topological transition, thus shedding light on the interplay between nontrivial topology and strain in quantum anomalous Hall systems.

  1. Geomechanical Modeling of CO2 Injection Site to Predict Wellbore Stresses and Strains for the Design of Wellbore Seal Repair Materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobolik, S. R.; Gomez, S. P.; Matteo, E. N.; Stormont, J.

    2015-12-01

    This paper will present the results of large-scale three-dimensional calculations simulating the hydrological-mechanical behavior of a CO2injection reservoir and the resulting effects on wellbore casings and sealant repair materials. A critical aspect of designing effective wellbore seal repair materials is predicting thermo-mechanical perturbations in local stress that can compromise seal integrity. The DOE-NETL project "Wellbore Seal Repair Using Nanocomposite Materials," is interested in the stress-strain history of abandoned wells, as well as changes in local pressure, stress, and temperature conditions that accompany carbon dioxide injection or brine extraction. Two distinct computational models comprise the current modeling effort. The first is a field scale model that uses the stratigraphy, material properties, and injection history from a pilot CO2injection operation in Cranfield, MS to develop a stress-strain history for wellbore locations from 100 to 400 meters from an injection well. The results from the field scale model are used as input to a more detailed model of a wellbore casing. The 3D wellbore model examines the impacts of various loading scenarios on a casing structure. This model has been developed in conjunction with bench-top experiments of an integrated seal system in an idealized scaled wellbore mock-up being used to test candidate seal repair materials. The results from these models will be used to estimate the necessary mechanical properties needed for a successful repair material. This material is based upon work supported by the US Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) under Grant Number DE-FE0009562. This project is managed and administered by the Storage Division of the NETL and funded by DOE/NETL and cost-sharing partners. This work was funded in part by the Center for Frontiers of Subsurface Energy Security, an Energy Frontier Research Center funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science

  2. Total Strain FE Model for Reinforced Concrete Floors on Piles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hofmeyer, H.; Bos, van den A.A.

    2008-01-01

    A finite element (FE) model using a total strain material model has been developed to predict the behavior of warehouse reinforced concrete floors on piles. The material model (not the FE model itself) was calibrated to material tests. The FE model for the floor structure was checked with full-scale

  3. Evaluating location specific strain rates, temperatures, and accumulated strains in friction welds through microstructure modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javed Akram

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available A microstructural simulation method is adopted to predict the location specific strain rates, temperatures, grain evolution, and accumulated strains in the Inconel 718 friction welds. Cellular automata based 2D microstructure model was developed for Inconel 718 alloy using theoretical aspects of dynamic recrystallization. Flow curves were simulated and compared with experimental results using hot deformation parameter obtained from literature work. Using validated model, simulations were performed for friction welds of Inconel 718 alloy generated at three rotational speed i.e., 1200, 1500, and 1500 RPM. Results showed the increase in strain rates with increasing rotational speed. These simulated strain rates were found to match with the analytical results. Temperature difference of 150 K was noticed from center to edge of the weld. At all the rotational speeds, the temperature was identical implying steady state temperature (0.89Tm attainment. Keywords: Microstructure modeling, Dynamic recrystallization, Friction welding, Inconel 718, EBSD, Hot deformation, Strain map

  4. Strain histograms are equal to strain ratios in predicting malignancy in breast tumours

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carlsen, Jonathan Frederik; Ewertsen, Caroline; Sletting, Susanne

    2017-01-01

    Objectives: To assess whether strain histograms are equal to strain ratios in predicting breast tumour malignancy and to see if either could be used to upgrade Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) 3 tumours for immediate biopsy. Methods: Ninety-nine breast tumours were examined using...

  5. Predicted strains in austenitic stainless steels at stresses above yield

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hammond, J.P.; Sikka, V.K.

    1977-01-01

    Tensile results on austenitic stainless steels were analyzed to develop means for predicting strains at stresses above yield for reactor regulatory applications. Eight heats each of types 316 and 304 were tested at 24, 93, 204, and 316 0 C as mill-annealed and at 24 0 C after reannealing. The effects of heat-to-heat variations on total strain (to 5%) at discrete stress levels were portrayed by a rational polynomial incorporating three constants that relate to the basic features of the true-stress-true-strain diagram. Because these constants usually are interrelated, a single parameter, yield strength (YS), proved adequate to predict results. For predictions analytical expressions of yield strength, an average value (YSa), and a lower bound value [YSa - 1.65SEE (standard error of estimate)] were used. Using the rational polynomial with these parameters we determined (1) limits of total maximum strain and (2) ratios of strain of material of lower bound YS to that of average YS. These are recorded at regular increments of stress [34 MPa (5 ksi)] and at ASME Code-related stresses (S/sub y), S/sub m/, 1.2S/sub m/ and 1.5S/sub m/). At intermediate stresses, strain penalties for using material of lower bound strength were large, generally larger for type 316 than type 304. For mill-annealed type 316 at 24, 93, 204, and 316 0 C, the maximum ratios of strain were 8.8, 13.0, 14.1, and 14.9, respectively, whereas for type 304 they were 3.5, 3.4, 5.6, and 4.6. At 1.5S/sub m/ and 316 0 C, a maximum strain of 2.08% was predicted for type 316 and 1.66% for type 304, as contrasted to values of 0.14 and 0.39% for average strain

  6. Five challenges in modelling interacting strain dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wikramaratna, Paul S; Kurcharski, Adam; Gupta, Sunetra

    2015-01-01

    population models. Next we consider the nature of so-called “strain space”. We describe two key types of host heterogeneities, and explain how models could help generate a better understanding of their effects. Finally, for diseases with many strains, we consider the challenge of modelling how immunity...

  7. Strained Si/SiGe MOS transistor model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatjana Pešić-Brđanin

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we describe a new model of surfacechannel strained-Si/SiGe MOSFET based on the extension of non-quasi-static (NQS circuit model previously derived for bulk-Si devices. Basic equations of the NQS model have been modified to account for the new physical parameters of strained-Si and relaxed-SiGe layers. From the comparisons with measurements, it is shown that a modified NQS MOS including steady-state self heating can accurately predict DC characteristics of Strained Silicon MOSFETs.

  8. Predictive modeling of complications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osorio, Joseph A; Scheer, Justin K; Ames, Christopher P

    2016-09-01

    Predictive analytic algorithms are designed to identify patterns in the data that allow for accurate predictions without the need for a hypothesis. Therefore, predictive modeling can provide detailed and patient-specific information that can be readily applied when discussing the risks of surgery with a patient. There are few studies using predictive modeling techniques in the adult spine surgery literature. These types of studies represent the beginning of the use of predictive analytics in spine surgery outcomes. We will discuss the advancements in the field of spine surgery with respect to predictive analytics, the controversies surrounding the technique, and the future directions.

  9. Archaeological predictive model set.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    This report is the documentation for Task 7 of the Statewide Archaeological Predictive Model Set. The goal of this project is to : develop a set of statewide predictive models to assist the planning of transportation projects. PennDOT is developing t...

  10. Methods for predicting isochronous stress-strain curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiyoshige, Masanori; Shimizu, Shigeki; Satoh, Keisuke.

    1976-01-01

    Isochronous stress-strain curves show the relation between stress and total strain at a certain temperature with time as a parameter, and they are drawn up from the creep test results at various stress levels at a definite temperature. The concept regarding the isochronous stress-strain curves was proposed by McVetty in 1930s, and has been used for the design of aero-engines. Recently the high temperature characteristics of materials are shown as the isochronous stress-strain curves in the design guide for the nuclear energy equipments and structures used in high temperature creep region. It is prescribed that these curves are used as the criteria for determining design stress intensity or the data for analyzing the superposed effects of creep and fatigue. In case of the isochronous stress-strain curves used for the design of nuclear energy equipments with very long service life, it is impractical to determine the curves directly from the results of long time creep test, accordingly the method of predicting long time stress-strain curves from short time creep test results must be established. The method proposed by the authors, for which the creep constitution equations taking the first and second creep stages into account are used, and the method using Larson-Miller parameter were studied, and it was found that both methods were reliable for the prediction. (Kako, I.)

  11. A strain-mediated corrosion model for bioabsorbable metallic stents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galvin, E; O'Brien, D; Cummins, C; Mac Donald, B J; Lally, C

    2017-06-01

    This paper presents a strain-mediated phenomenological corrosion model, based on the discrete finite element modelling method which was developed for use with the ANSYS Implicit finite element code. The corrosion model was calibrated from experimental data and used to simulate the corrosion performance of a WE43 magnesium alloy stent. The model was found to be capable of predicting the experimentally observed plastic strain-mediated mass loss profile. The non-linear plastic strain model, extrapolated from the experimental data, was also found to adequately capture the corrosion-induced reduction in the radial stiffness of the stent over time. The model developed will help direct future design efforts towards the minimisation of plastic strain during device manufacture, deployment and in-service, in order to reduce corrosion rates and prolong the mechanical integrity of magnesium devices. The need for corrosion models that explore the interaction of strain with corrosion damage has been recognised as one of the current challenges in degradable material modelling (Gastaldi et al., 2011). A finite element based plastic strain-mediated phenomenological corrosion model was developed in this work and was calibrated based on the results of the corrosion experiments. It was found to be capable of predicting the experimentally observed plastic strain-mediated mass loss profile and the corrosion-induced reduction in the radial stiffness of the stent over time. To the author's knowledge, the results presented here represent the first experimental calibration of a plastic strain-mediated corrosion model of a corroding magnesium stent. Copyright © 2017 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Wind power prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, R.; Mcginness, H.

    1976-01-01

    Investigations were performed to predict the power available from the wind at the Goldstone, California, antenna site complex. The background for power prediction was derived from a statistical evaluation of available wind speed data records at this location and at nearby locations similarly situated within the Mojave desert. In addition to a model for power prediction over relatively long periods of time, an interim simulation model that produces sample wind speeds is described. The interim model furnishes uncorrelated sample speeds at hourly intervals that reproduce the statistical wind distribution at Goldstone. A stochastic simulation model to provide speed samples representative of both the statistical speed distributions and correlations is also discussed.

  13. Five challenges in modelling interacting strain dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul S. Wikramaratna

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Population epidemiological models where hosts can be infected sequentially by different strains have the potential to help us understand many important diseases. Researchers have in recent years started to develop and use such models, but the extra layer of complexity from multiple strains brings with it many technical challenges. It is therefore hard to build models which have realistic assumptions yet are tractable. Here we outline some of the main challenges in this area. First we begin with the fundamental question of how to translate from complex small-scale dynamics within a host to useful population models. Next we consider the nature of so-called “strain space”. We describe two key types of host heterogeneities, and explain how models could help generate a better understanding of their effects. Finally, for diseases with many strains, we consider the challenge of modelling how immunity accumulates over multiple exposures.

  14. Fatigue Life Prediction of High Modulus Asphalt Concrete Based on the Local Stress-Strain Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mulian Zheng

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Previously published studies have proposed fatigue life prediction models for dense graded asphalt pavement based on flexural fatigue test. This study focused on the fatigue life prediction of High Modulus Asphalt Concrete (HMAC pavement using the local strain-stress method and direct tension fatigue test. First, the direct tension fatigue test at various strain levels was conducted on HMAC prism samples cut from plate specimens. Afterwards, their true stress-strain loop curves were obtained and modified to develop the strain-fatigue life equation. Then the nominal strain of HMAC course determined using finite element method was converted into local strain using the Neuber method. Finally, based on the established fatigue equation and converted local strain, a method to predict the pavement fatigue crack initiation life was proposed and the fatigue life of a typical HMAC overlay pavement which runs a risk of bottom-up cracking was predicted and validated. Results show that the proposed method was able to produce satisfactory crack initiation life.

  15. Patient-Specific MRI-Based Right Ventricle Models Using Different Zero-Load Diastole and Systole Geometries for Better Cardiac Stress and Strain Calculations and Pulmonary Valve Replacement Surgical Outcome Predictions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dalin Tang

    Full Text Available Accurate calculation of ventricular stress and strain is critical for cardiovascular investigations. Sarcomere shortening in active contraction leads to change of ventricular zero-stress configurations during the cardiac cycle. A new model using different zero-load diastole and systole geometries was introduced to provide more accurate cardiac stress/strain calculations with potential to predict post pulmonary valve replacement (PVR surgical outcome.Cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR data were obtained from 16 patients with repaired tetralogy of Fallot prior to and 6 months after pulmonary valve replacement (8 male, 8 female, mean age 34.5 years. Patients were divided into Group 1 (n = 8 with better post PVR outcome and Group 2 (n = 8 with worse post PVR outcome based on their change in RV ejection fraction (EF. CMR-based patient-specific computational RV/LV models using one zero-load geometry (1G model and two zero-load geometries (diastole and systole, 2G model were constructed and RV wall thickness, volume, circumferential and longitudinal curvatures, mechanical stress and strain were obtained for analysis. Pairwise T-test and Linear Mixed Effect (LME model were used to determine if the differences from the 1G and 2G models were statistically significant, with the dependence of the pair-wise observations and the patient-slice clustering effects being taken into consideration. For group comparisons, continuous variables (RV volumes, WT, C- and L- curvatures, and stress and strain values were summarized as mean ± SD and compared between the outcome groups by using an unpaired Student t-test. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify potential morphological and mechanical predictors for post PVR surgical outcome.Based on results from the 16 patients, mean begin-ejection stress and strain from the 2G model were 28% and 40% higher than that from the 1G model, respectively. Using the 2G model results, RV EF changes correlated negatively with

  16. Inverse and Predictive Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Syracuse, Ellen Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-09-27

    The LANL Seismo-Acoustic team has a strong capability in developing data-driven models that accurately predict a variety of observations. These models range from the simple – one-dimensional models that are constrained by a single dataset and can be used for quick and efficient predictions – to the complex – multidimensional models that are constrained by several types of data and result in more accurate predictions. Team members typically build models of geophysical characteristics of Earth and source distributions at scales of 1 to 1000s of km, the techniques used are applicable for other types of physical characteristics at an even greater range of scales. The following cases provide a snapshot of some of the modeling work done by the Seismo- Acoustic team at LANL.

  17. Measurements and predictions of strain pole figures for uniaxially compressed stainless steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larsson, C.; Clausen, B.; Holden, T.M.; Bourke, M.A.M.

    2004-01-01

    Strain pole figures representative of residual intergranular strains were determined from an -2.98% uniaxially compressed austenitic stainless steel sample. The measurements were made using neutron diffraction on the recently commissioned Spectrometer for Materials Research at Temperature and Stress (SMARTS) at Los Alamos National Laboratory, USA. The measurements were compared with predictions from an elasto-plastic self-consistent model and found to be in good agreement

  18. Measurements and predictions of strain pole figures for uniaxially compressed stainless steel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larsson, C. [Division of Engineering Materials, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Linkoeping University, 58183 Linkoeping (Sweden)]. E-mail: clarsson@cfl.rr.com; Clausen, B. [Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545 (United States); Holden, T.M. [Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545 (United States); Bourke, M.A.M. [Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545 (United States)

    2004-09-15

    Strain pole figures representative of residual intergranular strains were determined from an -2.98% uniaxially compressed austenitic stainless steel sample. The measurements were made using neutron diffraction on the recently commissioned Spectrometer for Materials Research at Temperature and Stress (SMARTS) at Los Alamos National Laboratory, USA. The measurements were compared with predictions from an elasto-plastic self-consistent model and found to be in good agreement.

  19. Modeling of stress-strain diagram on the basis of magnetic measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gorkunov, Eh.S.; Fedotov, V.P.; Bukhvalov, A.B.; Veselov, I.N.

    1997-01-01

    The model of a stress-strain diagram with taking into account the strain hardening and the growth of metal damageing is proposed. The model is applied to calculate a stress-strain curve for continuous cast 45 steel using the results of magnetic properties measuring. The latter permits predicting the durability of construction elements with the use of nondestructive magnetic testing

  20. Novel Approach for Prediction of Localized Necking in Case of Nonlinear Strain Paths

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drotleff, K.; Liewald, M.

    2017-09-01

    Rising customer expectations regarding design complexity and weight reduction of sheet metal components alongside with further reduced time to market implicate increased demand for process validation using numerical forming simulation. Formability prediction though often is still based on the forming limit diagram first presented in the 1960s. Despite many drawbacks in case of nonlinear strain paths and major advances in research in the recent years, the forming limit curve (FLC) is still one of the most commonly used criteria for assessing formability of sheet metal materials. Especially when forming complex part geometries nonlinear strain paths may occur, which cannot be predicted using the conventional FLC-Concept. In this paper a novel approach for calculation of FLCs for nonlinear strain paths is presented. Combining an interesting approach for prediction of FLC using tensile test data and IFU-FLC-Criterion a model for prediction of localized necking for nonlinear strain paths can be derived. Presented model is purely based on experimental tensile test data making it easy to calibrate for any given material. Resulting prediction of localized necking is validated using an experimental deep drawing specimen made of AA6014 material having a sheet thickness of 1.04 mm. The results are compared to IFU-FLC-Criterion based on data of pre-stretched Nakajima specimen.

  1. Prediction of failure strain and burst pressure in high yield-to-tensile strength ratio linepipe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Law, M.; Bowie, G.

    2007-01-01

    Failure pressures and strains were predicted for a number of burst tests as part of a project to explore failure strain in high yield-to-tensile strength ratio linepipe. Twenty-three methods for predicting the burst pressure and six methods of predicting the failure strain are compared with test results. Several methods were identified which gave accurate and reliable estimates of burst pressure. No method of accurately predicting the failure strain was found, though the best was noted

  2. Prediction of failure strain and burst pressure in high yield-to-tensile strength ratio linepipe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Law, M. [Institute of Materials and Engineering Science, Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO), Lucas Heights, NSW (Australia)]. E-mail: mlx@ansto.gov.au; Bowie, G. [BlueScope Steel Ltd., Level 11, 120 Collins St, Melbourne, Victoria 3000 (Australia)

    2007-08-15

    Failure pressures and strains were predicted for a number of burst tests as part of a project to explore failure strain in high yield-to-tensile strength ratio linepipe. Twenty-three methods for predicting the burst pressure and six methods of predicting the failure strain are compared with test results. Several methods were identified which gave accurate and reliable estimates of burst pressure. No method of accurately predicting the failure strain was found, though the best was noted.

  3. Brittle superconducting magnets: an equivilent strain model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barzi, E.; Danuso, M.

    2010-01-01

    To exceed fields of 10 T in accelerator magnets, brittle superconductors like A15 Nb 3 Sn and Nb 3 Al or ceramic High Temperature Superconductors have to be used. For such brittle superconductors it is not their maximum tensile yield stress that limits their structural resistance as much as strain values that provoke deformations in their delicate lattice, which in turn affect their superconducting properties. Work on the sensitivity of Nb 3 Sn cables to strain has been conducted in a number of stress states, including uniaxial and multi-axial, producing usually different results. This has made the need of a constituent design criterion imperative for magnet builders. In conventional structural problems an equivalent stress model is typically used to verify mechanical soundness. In the superconducting community a simple scalar equivalent strain to be used in place of an equivalent stress would be an extremely useful tool. As is well known in fundamental mechanics, there is not one single way to reduce a multiaxial strain state as represented by a 2nd order tensor to a scalar. The conceptual experiment proposed here will help determine the best scalar representation to use in the identification of an equivalent strain model.

  4. Cultural Resource Predictive Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    CR cultural resource CRM cultural resource management CRPM Cultural Resource Predictive Modeling DoD Department of Defense ESTCP Environmental...resource management ( CRM ) legal obligations under NEPA and the NHPA, military installations need to demonstrate that CRM decisions are based on objective...maxim “one size does not fit all,” and demonstrate that DoD installations have many different CRM needs that can and should be met through a variety

  5. Improved failure prediction in forming simulations through pre-strain mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Upadhya, Siddharth; Staupendahl, Daniel; Heuse, Martin; Tekkaya, A. Erman

    2018-05-01

    The sensitivity of sheared edges of advanced high strength steel (AHSS) sheets to cracking during subsequent forming operations and the difficulty to predict this failure with any degree of accuracy using conventionally used FLC based failure criteria is a major problem plaguing the manufacturing industry. A possible method that allows for an accurate prediction of edge cracks is the simulation of the shearing operation and carryover of this model into a subsequent forming simulation. But even with an efficient combination of a solid element shearing operation and a shell element forming simulation, the need for a fine mesh, and the resulting high computation time makes this approach not viable from an industry point of view. The crack sensitivity of sheared edges is due to work hardening in the shear-affected zone (SAZ). A method to predict plastic strains induced by the shearing process is to measure the hardness after shearing and calculate the ultimate tensile strength as well as the flow stress. In combination with the flow curve, the relevant strain data can be obtained. To eliminate the time-intensive shearing simulation necessary to obtain the strain data in the SAZ, a new pre-strain mapping approach is proposed. The pre-strains to be mapped are, hereby, determined from hardness values obtained in the proximity of the sheared edge. To investigate the performance of this approach the ISO/TS 16630 hole expansion test was simulated with shell elements for different materials, whereby the pre-strains were mapped onto the edge of the hole. The hole expansion ratios obtained from such pre-strain mapped simulations are in close agreement with the experimental results. Furthermore, the simulations can be carried out with no increase in computation time, making this an interesting and viable solution for predicting edge failure due to shearing.

  6. Candidate Prediction Models and Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik

    2005-01-01

    This document lists candidate prediction models for Work Package 3 (WP3) of the PSO-project called ``Intelligent wind power prediction systems'' (FU4101). The main focus is on the models transforming numerical weather predictions into predictions of power production. The document also outlines...... the possibilities w.r.t. different numerical weather predictions actually available to the project....

  7. Application of the strain energy for fatigue life prediction (LCF) of metals by the energy-based criterion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shahram Shahrooi; Ibrahim Henk Metselaar; Zainul Huda; Ghezavati, H.R.

    2009-01-01

    Full text: In this study, the plastic strain energy under multiaxial fatigue condition has been calculated in the cyclic plasticity models by the stress-strain hysteresis loops. Then, using the results of these models, the fatigue lives in energy-based fatigue model is predicted and compared to experimental data. Moreover, a weighting factor on shear plastic work is presented to decrease the life factors in the model fatigue. (author)

  8. Predictive Surface Complexation Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sverjensky, Dimitri A. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States). Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences

    2016-11-29

    Surface complexation plays an important role in the equilibria and kinetics of processes controlling the compositions of soilwaters and groundwaters, the fate of contaminants in groundwaters, and the subsurface storage of CO2 and nuclear waste. Over the last several decades, many dozens of individual experimental studies have addressed aspects of surface complexation that have contributed to an increased understanding of its role in natural systems. However, there has been no previous attempt to develop a model of surface complexation that can be used to link all the experimental studies in order to place them on a predictive basis. Overall, my research has successfully integrated the results of the work of many experimentalists published over several decades. For the first time in studies of the geochemistry of the mineral-water interface, a practical predictive capability for modeling has become available. The predictive correlations developed in my research now enable extrapolations of experimental studies to provide estimates of surface chemistry for systems not yet studied experimentally and for natural and anthropogenically perturbed systems.

  9. The emergence of the Activity Reduces Conflict Associated Strain (ARCAS) model: a test of a conditional mediation model of workplace conflict and employee strain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijkstra, M.T.M.; Beersma, B.; Cornelissen, R.A.W.M.

    2012-01-01

    To test and extend the emerging Activity Reduces Conflict-Associated Strain (ARCAS) model, we predicted that the relationship between task conflict and employee strain would be weakened to the extent that people experience high organization-based self-esteem (OBSE). A survey among Dutch employees

  10. The emergence of the activity reduces conflict related strain (ARCAS) model: A test of a conditional mediation model of workplace conflict and employee strain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijkstra, M.T.M.; Beersma, B.; Cornelissen, R. A. W. M.

    2012-01-01

    To test and extend the emerging Activity Reduces Conflict-Associated Strain (ARCAS) model, we predicted that the relationship between task conflict and employee strain would be weakened to the extent that people experience high organization-based self-esteem (OBSE). A survey among Dutch employees

  11. Prediction of thermal and mechanical stress-strain responses of TMC's subjected to complex TMF histories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, W. S.; Mirdamadi, M.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents an experimental and analytical evaluation of cross-plied laminates of Ti-15V-3Cr-3Al-3Sn (Ti-15-3) matrix reinforced with continuous silicon-carbide fibers (SCS-6) subjected to a complex TMF loading profile. Thermomechanical fatigue test techniques were developed to conduct a simulation of a generic hypersonic flight profile. A micromechanical analysis was used. The analysis predicts the stress-strain response of the laminate and of the constituents in each ply during thermal and mechanical cycling by using only constituent properties as input. The fiber was modeled as elastic with transverse orthotropic and temperature-dependent properties. The matrix was modeled using a thermoviscoplastic constitutive relation. The fiber transverse modulus was reduced in the analysis to simulate the fiber-matrix interface failures. Excellent correlation was found between measured and predicted laminate stress-strain response due to generic hypersonic flight profile when fiber debonding was modeled.

  12. Estimation of respiratory heat flows in prediction of heat strain among Taiwanese steel workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wang-Yi; Juang, Yow-Jer; Hsieh, Jung-Yu; Tsai, Perng-Jy; Chen, Chen-Peng

    2017-01-01

    International Organization for Standardization 7933 standard provides evaluation of required sweat rate (RSR) and predicted heat strain (PHS). This study examined and validated the approximations in these models estimating respiratory heat flows (RHFs) via convection (C res ) and evaporation (E res ) for application to Taiwanese foundry workers. The influence of change in RHF approximation to the validity of heat strain prediction in these models was also evaluated. The metabolic energy consumption and physiological quantities of these workers performing at different workloads under elevated wet-bulb globe temperature (30.3 ± 2.5 °C) were measured on-site and used in the calculation of RHFs and indices of heat strain. As the results show, the RSR model overestimated the C res for Taiwanese workers by approximately 3 % and underestimated the E res by 8 %. The C res approximation in the PHS model closely predicted the convective RHF, while the E res approximation over-predicted by 11 %. Linear regressions provided better fit in C res approximation (R 2  = 0.96) than in E res approximation (R 2  ≤ 0.85) in both models. The predicted C res deviated increasingly from the observed value when the WBGT reached 35 °C. The deviations of RHFs observed for the workers from those predicted using the RSR or PHS models did not significantly alter the heat loss via the skin, as the RHFs were in general of a level less than 5 % of the metabolic heat consumption. Validation of these approximations considering thermo-physiological responses of local workers is necessary for application in scenarios of significant heat exposure.

  13. Prediction of strain energy-based liquefaction resistance of sand-silt mixtures: An evolutionary approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baziar, Mohammad H.; Jafarian, Yaser; Shahnazari, Habib; Movahed, Vahid; Amin Tutunchian, Mohammad

    2011-11-01

    Liquefaction is a catastrophic type of ground failure, which usually occurs in loose saturated soil deposits under earthquake excitations. A new predictive model is presented in this study to estimate the amount of strain energy density, which is required for the liquefaction triggering of sand-silt mixtures. A wide-ranging database containing the results of cyclic tests on sand-silt mixtures was first gathered from previously published studies. Input variables of the model were chosen from the available understandings evolved from the previous studies on the strain energy-based liquefaction potential assessment. In order to avoid overtraining, two sets of validation data were employed and a particular monitoring was made on the behavior of the evolved models. Results of a comprehensive parametric study on the proposed model are in accord with the previously published experimental observations. Accordingly, the amount of strain energy required for liquefaction onset increases with increase in initial effective overburden pressure, relative density, and mean grain size. The effect of nonplastic fines on strain energy-based liquefaction resistance shows a more complicated behavior. Accordingly, liquefaction resistance increases with increase in fines up to about 10-15% and then starts to decline for a higher increase in fines content. Further verifications of the model were carried out using the valuable results of some downhole array data as well as centrifuge model tests. These verifications confirm that the proposed model, which was derived from laboratory data, can be successfully utilized under field conditions.

  14. Strain Elastography for Prediction of Malignancy in Soft Tissue Tumours--Preliminary Results

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riishede, I; Ewertsen, C; Carlsen, J

    2015-01-01

    PURPOSE: To evaluate the ability of strain elastography to predict malignancy in patients with soft tissue tumors, and to compare three evaluation methods of strain elastography: strain ratios, strain histograms and visual scoring. MATERIALS AND METHODS: 60 patients with 61 tumors were analyzed...

  15. SPICE compatible analytical electron mobility model for biaxial strained-Si-MOSFETs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chaudhry, Amit; Sangwan, S. [UIET, Panjab University, Chandigarh (India); Roy, J. N., E-mail: amit_chaudhry01@yahoo.com [Solar Semiconductro Pvt. Ltd, Hyderabad (India)

    2011-05-15

    This paper describes an analytical model for bulk electron mobility in strained-Si layers as a function of strain. Phonon scattering, columbic scattering and surface roughness scattering are included to analyze the full mobility model. Analytical explicit calculations of all of the parameters to accurately estimate the electron mobility have been made. The results predict an increase in the electron mobility with the application of biaxial strain as also predicted from the basic theory of strain physics of metal oxide semiconductor (MOS) devices. The results have also been compared with numerically reported results and show good agreement. (semiconductor devices)

  16. SPICE compatible analytical electron mobility model for biaxial strained-Si-MOSFETs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaudhry, Amit; Sangwan, S.; Roy, J. N.

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes an analytical model for bulk electron mobility in strained-Si layers as a function of strain. Phonon scattering, columbic scattering and surface roughness scattering are included to analyze the full mobility model. Analytical explicit calculations of all of the parameters to accurately estimate the electron mobility have been made. The results predict an increase in the electron mobility with the application of biaxial strain as also predicted from the basic theory of strain physics of metal oxide semiconductor (MOS) devices. The results have also been compared with numerically reported results and show good agreement. (semiconductor devices)

  17. Experimental study of strain prediction on wave induced structures using modal decomposition and quasi static Ritz vectors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skafte, Anders; Kristoffersen, Julie; Vestermark, Jonas

    2017-01-01

    into two parts using complementary filters: Low frequency response caused by the quasi-static effect of the waves acting on the structure, and the high frequency response given by the modal properties of the structure. The high frequency response is then decomposed into modal coordinates using...... the experimental mode shapes. Strain histories are predicted by multiplying the modal coordinates with the expanded strain mode shapes. The low frequency response is decomposed using Ritz-vectors corresponding to the shapes that the structure vibrates with due to the wave loading. Strain Ritz......-vectors are then extracted from the finite element model by applying a load corresponding to a representative wave and the strain history for the low frequency response is found by multiplying the decomposed signal with the strain Ritz-vectors. Finally the combined strain history is found by adding the strain histories from...

  18. The MIDAS touch for Accurately Predicting the Stress-Strain Behavior of Tantalum

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jorgensen, S. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2016-03-02

    Testing the behavior of metals in extreme environments is not always feasible, so material scientists use models to try and predict the behavior. To achieve accurate results it is necessary to use the appropriate model and material-specific parameters. This research evaluated the performance of six material models available in the MIDAS database [1] to determine at which temperatures and strain-rates they perform best, and to determine to which experimental data their parameters were optimized. Additionally, parameters were optimized for the Johnson-Cook model using experimental data from Lassila et al [2].

  19. Healthy work revisited: do changes in time strain predict well-being?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moen, Phyllis; Kelly, Erin L; Lam, Jack

    2013-04-01

    Building on Karasek and Theorell (R. Karasek & T. Theorell, 1990, Healthy work: Stress, productivity, and the reconstruction of working life, New York, NY: Basic Books), we theorized and tested the relationship between time strain (work-time demands and control) and seven self-reported health outcomes. We drew on survey data from 550 employees fielded before and 6 months after the implementation of an organizational intervention, the results only work environment (ROWE) in a white-collar organization. Cross-sectional (wave 1) models showed psychological time demands and time control measures were related to health outcomes in expected directions. The ROWE intervention did not predict changes in psychological time demands by wave 2, but did predict increased time control (a sense of time adequacy and schedule control). Statistical models revealed increases in psychological time demands and time adequacy predicted changes in positive (energy, mastery, psychological well-being, self-assessed health) and negative (emotional exhaustion, somatic symptoms, psychological distress) outcomes in expected directions, net of job and home demands and covariates. This study demonstrates the value of including time strain in investigations of the health effects of job conditions. Results encourage longitudinal models of change in psychological time demands as well as time control, along with the development and testing of interventions aimed at reducing time strain in different populations of workers.

  20. Multiaxial Stress-Strain Modeling and Effect of Additional Hardening due to Nonproportional Loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rashed, G.; Ghajar, R.; Farrahi, G.

    2007-01-01

    Most engineering components are subjected to multiaxial rather than uniaxial cyclic loading, which causes multiaxial fatigue. The pre-requisite to predict the fatigue life of such components is to determine the multiaxial stress strain relationship. In this paper the multiaxial cyclic stress-strain model under proportional loading is derived using the modified power law stress-strain relationship. The equivalent strain amplitude consisted of the normal strain excursion and maximum shear strain amplitude is used in the proportional model to include the additional hardening effect due to nonproportional loading. Therefore a new multiaxial cyclic stress-strain relationship is devised for out of phase nonproportional loading. The model is applied to the nonproportional loading case and the results are compared with the other researchers' experimental data published in the literature, which are in a reasonable agreement with the experimental data. The relationship presented here is convenient for the engineering applications

  1. Confidence scores for prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerds, Thomas Alexander; van de Wiel, MA

    2011-01-01

    In medical statistics, many alternative strategies are available for building a prediction model based on training data. Prediction models are routinely compared by means of their prediction performance in independent validation data. If only one data set is available for training and validation,...

  2. Pile Model Tests Using Strain Gauge Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krasiński, Adam; Kusio, Tomasz

    2015-09-01

    Ordinary pile bearing capacity tests are usually carried out to determine the relationship between load and displacement of pile head. The measurement system required in such tests consists of force transducer and three or four displacement gauges. The whole system is installed at the pile head above the ground level. This approach, however, does not give us complete information about the pile-soil interaction. We can only determine the total bearing capacity of the pile, without the knowledge of its distribution into the shaft and base resistances. Much more information can be obtained by carrying out a test of instrumented pile equipped with a system for measuring the distribution of axial force along its core. In the case of pile model tests the use of such measurement is difficult due to small scale of the model. To find a suitable solution for axial force measurement, which could be applied to small scale model piles, we had to take into account the following requirements: - a linear and stable relationship between measured and physical values, - the force measurement accuracy of about 0.1 kN, - the range of measured forces up to 30 kN, - resistance of measuring gauges against aggressive counteraction of concrete mortar and against moisture, - insensitivity to pile bending, - economical factor. These requirements can be fulfilled by strain gauge sensors if an appropriate methodology is used for test preparation (Hoffmann [1]). In this paper, we focus on some aspects of the application of strain gauge sensors for model pile tests. The efficiency of the method is proved on the examples of static load tests carried out on SDP model piles acting as single piles and in a group.

  3. Spallation model for the high strain rates range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dekel, E.; Eliezer, S.; Henis, Z.; Moshe, E.; Ludmirsky, A.; Goldberg, I. B.

    1998-11-01

    Measurements of the dynamic spall strength in aluminum and copper shocked by a high power laser to pressures of hundreds of kbars show a rapid increase in the spall strength with the strain rate at values of about 107 s-1. We suggest that this behavior is a result of a change in the spall mechanism. At low strain rates the spall is caused by the motion and coalescence of material's initial flaws. At high strain rates there is not enough time for the flaws to move and the spall is produced by the formation and coalescence of additional cavities where the interatomic forces become dominant. Material under tensile stress is in a metastable condition and cavities of a critical radius are formed in it due to thermal fluctuations. These cavities grow due to the tension. The total volume of the voids grow until the material disintegrates at the spall plane. Simplified calculations based on this model, describing the metal as a viscous liquid, give results in fairly good agreement with the experimental data and predict the increase in spall strength at high strain rates.

  4. Tantalum strength model incorporating temperature, strain rate and pressure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Hojun; Battaile, Corbett; Brown, Justin; Lane, Matt

    Tantalum is a body-centered-cubic (BCC) refractory metal that is widely used in many applications in high temperature, strain rate and pressure environments. In this work, we propose a physically-based strength model for tantalum that incorporates effects of temperature, strain rate and pressure. A constitutive model for single crystal tantalum is developed based on dislocation kink-pair theory, and calibrated to measurements on single crystal specimens. The model is then used to predict deformations of single- and polycrystalline tantalum. In addition, the proposed strength model is implemented into Sandia's ALEGRA solid dynamics code to predict plastic deformations of tantalum in engineering-scale applications at extreme conditions, e.g. Taylor impact tests and Z machine's high pressure ramp compression tests, and the results are compared with available experimental data. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

  5. Investigation of stress–strain models for confined high strength ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    High strength concrete; confined concrete; stress–strain models; ... One of its advantages is the lessening column cross-sectional areas. It was ..... Ahmad S H, Shah S P 1982 Stress–strain curves of concrete confined by spiral reinforcement.

  6. PREDICTED PERCENTAGE DISSATISFIED (PPD) MODEL ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HOD

    their low power requirements, are relatively cheap and are environment friendly. ... PREDICTED PERCENTAGE DISSATISFIED MODEL EVALUATION OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING ... The performance of direct evaporative coolers is a.

  7. Transesophageal echocardiographic strain imaging predicts aortic biomechanics: Beyond diameter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emmott, Alexander; Alzahrani, Haitham; Alreishidan, Mohammed; Therrien, Judith; Leask, Richard L; Lachapelle, Kevin

    2018-03-11

    Clinical guidelines recommend resection of ascending aortic aneurysms at diameters 5.5 cm or greater to prevent rupture or dissection. However, approximately 40% of all ascending aortic dissections occur below this threshold. We propose new transesophageal echocardiography strain-imaging moduli coupled with blood pressure measurements to predict aortic dysfunction below the surgical threshold. A total of 21 patients undergoing aortic resection were recruited to participate in this study. Transesophageal echocardiography imaging of the aortic short-axis and invasive radial blood pressure traces were taken for 3 cardiac cycles. By using EchoPAC (GE Healthcare, Madison, Wis) and postprocessing in MATLAB (MathWorks, Natick, Mass), circumferential stretch profiles were generated and combined with the blood pressure traces. From these data, 2 in vivo stiffness moduli were calculated: the Cardiac Cycle Pressure Modulus and Cardiac Cycle Stress Modulus. From the resected aortic ring, testing squares were isolated for ex vivo mechanical analysis and histopathology. Each square underwent equibiaxial tensile testing to generate stress-stretch profiles for each patient. Two ex vivo indices were calculated from these profiles (energy loss and incremental stiffness) for comparison with the Cardiac Cycle Pressure Modulus and Cardiac Cycle Stress Modulus. The echo-derived stiffness moduli demonstrate positive significant covariance with ex vivo tensile biomechanical indices: energy loss (vs Cardiac Cycle Pressure Modulus: R 2  = 0.5873, P biomechanics and histopathology, which demonstrates the added benefit of using simple echocardiography-derived biomechanics to stratify patient populations. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  8. An improved model for considering strain rate effects on reinforced concrete elements behavior under dynamic loads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sim, J.; Soroushian, P.

    1989-01-01

    An improved model for predicting the reinforced concrete element behavior under dynamic strain rates was developed using the layer modeling technique. The developed strain rate sensitive model for axial/flexural analysis of reinforced concrete elements was used to predict the test results, performed at different loading rates, and the predictions were reasonable. The developed analysis technique was used to study the loading rate sensitivity of reinforced concrete beams and columns with different geometry and material properties. Two design formulas for computing the loading rate dependent axial and flexural strengths of reinforced concrete sections are suggested

  9. The emergence of the Activity Reduces Conflict Associated Strain (ARCAS) model: a test of a conditional mediation model of workplace conflict and employee strain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dijkstra, Maria T M; Beersma, Bianca; Cornelissen, Roosmarijn A W M

    2012-07-01

    To test and extend the emerging Activity Reduces Conflict-Associated Strain (ARCAS) model, we predicted that the relationship between task conflict and employee strain would be weakened to the extent that people experience high organization-based self-esteem (OBSE). A survey among Dutch employees demonstrated that, consistent with the model, the conflict-employee strain relationship was weaker the higher employees' OBSE and the more they engaged in active problem-solving conflict management. Our data also revealed that higher levels of OBSE were related to more problem-solving conflict management. Moreover, consistent with the ARCAS model, we could confirm a conditional mediation model in which organization-based self-esteem through its relationship with problem-solving conflict management weakened the relationship between task conflict and employee strain. Potential applications of the results are discussed.

  10. Bootstrap prediction and Bayesian prediction under misspecified models

    OpenAIRE

    Fushiki, Tadayoshi

    2005-01-01

    We consider a statistical prediction problem under misspecified models. In a sense, Bayesian prediction is an optimal prediction method when an assumed model is true. Bootstrap prediction is obtained by applying Breiman's `bagging' method to a plug-in prediction. Bootstrap prediction can be considered to be an approximation to the Bayesian prediction under the assumption that the model is true. However, in applications, there are frequently deviations from the assumed model. In this paper, bo...

  11. Predictive validation of an influenza spread model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayaz Hyder

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998-1999. Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type. Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. CONCLUSIONS: Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve

  12. Predictive Validation of an Influenza Spread Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyder, Ayaz; Buckeridge, David L.; Leung, Brian

    2013-01-01

    Background Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. Methods and Findings We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998–1999). Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type). Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. Conclusions Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers) with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve their predictive

  13. Interpretation of experiments and modeling of internal strains in Beryllium using a polycrystal model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tome, C.; Bourke, M.A.M.; Daymond, M.R.

    2000-01-01

    The elastic and plastic anisotropy of Be have been examined during a uniaxial compression test, by in-situ monitoring in a pulsed neutron beam. Comparisons between the measured hkil strains and the predictions from an elasto-plastic self-consistent (EPSC) model are made. Agreement is qualitatively correct for most planes in the elasto-plastic regime. Possible mechanisms responsible for the quantitative discrepancies between model and experiment are discussed

  14. Mathematical prediction of core body temperature from environment, activity, and clothing: The heat strain decision aid (HSDA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, Adam W; Blanchard, Laurie A; Friedl, Karl E; Cadarette, Bruce S; Hoyt, Reed W

    2017-02-01

    Physiological models provide useful summaries of complex interrelated regulatory functions. These can often be reduced to simple input requirements and simple predictions for pragmatic applications. This paper demonstrates this modeling efficiency by tracing the development of one such simple model, the Heat Strain Decision Aid (HSDA), originally developed to address Army needs. The HSDA, which derives from the Givoni-Goldman equilibrium body core temperature prediction model, uses 16 inputs from four elements: individual characteristics, physical activity, clothing biophysics, and environmental conditions. These inputs are used to mathematically predict core temperature (T c ) rise over time and can estimate water turnover from sweat loss. Based on a history of military applications such as derivation of training and mission planning tools, we conclude that the HSDA model is a robust integration of physiological rules that can guide a variety of useful predictions. The HSDA model is limited to generalized predictions of thermal strain and does not provide individualized predictions that could be obtained from physiological sensor data-driven predictive models. This fully transparent physiological model should be improved and extended with new findings and new challenging scenarios. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  15. A Constitutive Model for Strain-Controlled Strength Degradation of Rockmasses (SDR)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalos, A.; Kavvadas, M.

    2017-11-01

    The paper describes a continuum, rate-independent, incremental plasticity constitutive model applicable in weak rocks and heavily fractured rockmasses, where mechanical behaviour is controlled by rockmass strength rather than structural features (discontinuities). The model describes rockmass structure by a generalised Hoek-Brown Structure Envelope (SE) in the stress space. Stress paths inside the SE are nonlinear and irreversible to better simulate behaviour at strains up to peak strength and under stress reversals. Stress paths on the SE have user-controlled volume dilatancy (gradually reducing to zero at large shear strains) and can model post-peak strain softening of brittle rockmasses via a structure degradation (damage) mechanism triggered by accumulated plastic shear strains. As the SE may strain harden with plastic strains, ductile behaviour can also be modelled. The model was implemented in the Finite Element Code Simulia ABAQUS and was applied in plane strain (2D) excavation of a cylindrical cavity (tunnel) to predict convergence-confinement curves. It is shown that small-strain nonlinearity, variable volume dilatancy and post-peak hardening/softening strongly affect the predicted curves, resulting in corresponding differences of lining pressures in real tunnel excavations.

  16. MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL FUNDAMENTALS

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2012-07-02

    Jul 2, 2012 ... signal based on a process model, coping with constraints on inputs and ... paper, we will present an introduction to the theory and application of MPC with Matlab codes ... section 5 presents the simulation results and section 6.

  17. Modeling of a Surface Acoustic Wave Strain Sensor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, W. C.; Atkinson, Gary M.

    2010-01-01

    NASA Langley Research Center is investigating Surface Acoustic Wave (SAW) sensor technology for harsh environments aimed at aerospace applications. To aid in development of sensors a model of a SAW strain sensor has been developed. The new model extends the modified matrix method to include the response of Orthogonal Frequency Coded (OFC) reflectors and the response of SAW devices to strain. These results show that the model accurately captures the strain response of a SAW sensor on a Langasite substrate. The results of the model of a SAW Strain Sensor on Langasite are presented

  18. Mechanical strength model for plastic bonded granular materials at high strain rates and large strains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Browning, R.V.; Scammon, R.J.

    1998-01-01

    Modeling impact events on systems containing plastic bonded explosive materials requires accurate models for stress evolution at high strain rates out to large strains. For example, in the Steven test geometry reactions occur after strains of 0.5 or more are reached for PBX-9501. The morphology of this class of materials and properties of the constituents are briefly described. We then review the viscoelastic behavior observed at small strains for this class of material, and evaluate large strain models used for granular materials such as cap models. Dilatation under shearing deformations of the PBX is experimentally observed and is one of the key features modeled in cap style plasticity theories, together with bulk plastic flow at high pressures. We propose a model that combines viscoelastic behavior at small strains but adds intergranular stresses at larger strains. A procedure using numerical simulations and comparisons with results from flyer plate tests and low rate uniaxial stress tests is used to develop a rough set of constants for PBX-9501. Comparisons with the high rate flyer plate tests demonstrate that the observed characteristic behavior is captured by this viscoelastic based model. copyright 1998 American Institute of Physics

  19. The demand-induced strain compensation model : renewed theoretical considerations and empirical evidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jonge, J.; Dormann, C.; van den Tooren, M.; Näswall, K.; Hellgren, J.; Sverke, M.

    2008-01-01

    This chapter presents a recently developed theoretical model on jobrelated stress and performance, the so-called Demand-Induced Strain Compensation (DISC) model. The DISC model predicts in general that adverse health effects of high job demands can best be compensated for by matching job resources

  20. Melanoma Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing melanoma cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  1. Modelling bankruptcy prediction models in Slovak companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kovacova Maria

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available An intensive research from academics and practitioners has been provided regarding models for bankruptcy prediction and credit risk management. In spite of numerous researches focusing on forecasting bankruptcy using traditional statistics techniques (e.g. discriminant analysis and logistic regression and early artificial intelligence models (e.g. artificial neural networks, there is a trend for transition to machine learning models (support vector machines, bagging, boosting, and random forest to predict bankruptcy one year prior to the event. Comparing the performance of this with unconventional approach with results obtained by discriminant analysis, logistic regression, and neural networks application, it has been found that bagging, boosting, and random forest models outperform the others techniques, and that all prediction accuracy in the testing sample improves when the additional variables are included. On the other side the prediction accuracy of old and well known bankruptcy prediction models is quiet high. Therefore, we aim to analyse these in some way old models on the dataset of Slovak companies to validate their prediction ability in specific conditions. Furthermore, these models will be modelled according to new trends by calculating the influence of elimination of selected variables on the overall prediction ability of these models.

  2. Predictive models of moth development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degree-day models link ambient temperature to insect life-stages, making such models valuable tools in integrated pest management. These models increase management efficacy by predicting pest phenology. In Wisconsin, the top insect pest of cranberry production is the cranberry fruitworm, Acrobasis v...

  3. Predictive Models and Computational Embryology

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA’s ‘virtual embryo’ project is building an integrative systems biology framework for predictive models of developmental toxicity. One schema involves a knowledge-driven adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework utilizing information from public databases, standardized ontologies...

  4. Predicting FLDs Using a Multiscale Modeling Scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Z.; Loy, C.; Wang, E.; Hegadekatte, V.

    2017-09-01

    The measurement of a single forming limit diagram (FLD) requires significant resources and is time consuming. We have developed a multiscale modeling scheme to predict FLDs using a combination of limited laboratory testing, crystal plasticity (VPSC) modeling, and dual sequential-stage finite element (ABAQUS/Explicit) modeling with the Marciniak-Kuczynski (M-K) criterion to determine the limit strain. We have established a means to work around existing limitations in ABAQUS/Explicit by using an anisotropic yield locus (e.g., BBC2008) in combination with the M-K criterion. We further apply a VPSC model to reduce the number of laboratory tests required to characterize the anisotropic yield locus. In the present work, we show that the predicted FLD is in excellent agreement with the measured FLD for AA5182 in the O temper. Instead of 13 different tests as for a traditional FLD determination within Novelis, our technique uses just four measurements: tensile properties in three orientations; plane strain tension; biaxial bulge; and the sheet crystallographic texture. The turnaround time is consequently far less than for the traditional laboratory measurement of the FLD.

  5. Predictive Modeling in Race Walking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krzysztof Wiktorowicz

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the use of linear and nonlinear multivariable models as tools to support training process of race walkers. These models are calculated using data collected from race walkers’ training events and they are used to predict the result over a 3 km race based on training loads. The material consists of 122 training plans for 21 athletes. In order to choose the best model leave-one-out cross-validation method is used. The main contribution of the paper is to propose the nonlinear modifications for linear models in order to achieve smaller prediction error. It is shown that the best model is a modified LASSO regression with quadratic terms in the nonlinear part. This model has the smallest prediction error and simplified structure by eliminating some of the predictors.

  6. Large-strain time-temperature equivalence in high density polyethylene for prediction of extreme deformation and damage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gray G.T.

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Time-temperature equivalence is a widely recognized property of many time-dependent material systems, where there is a clear predictive link relating the deformation response at a nominal temperature and a high strain-rate to an equivalent response at a depressed temperature and nominal strain-rate. It has been found that high-density polyethylene (HDPE obeys a linear empirical formulation relating test temperature and strain-rate. This observation was extended to continuous stress-strain curves, such that material response measured in a load frame at large strains and low strain-rates (at depressed temperatures could be translated into a temperature-dependent response at high strain-rates and validated against Taylor impact results. Time-temperature equivalence was used in conjuction with jump-rate compression tests to investigate isothermal response at high strain-rate while exluding adiabatic heating. The validated constitutive response was then applied to the analysis of Dynamic-Tensile-Extrusion of HDPE, a tensile analog to Taylor impact developed at LANL. The Dyn-Ten-Ext test results and FEA found that HDPE deformed smoothly after exiting the die, and after substantial drawing appeared to undergo a pressure-dependent shear damage mechanism at intermediate velocities, while it fragmented at high velocities. Dynamic-Tensile-Extrusion, properly coupled with a validated constitutive model, can successfully probe extreme tensile deformation and damage of polymers.

  7. Predictions and Experimental Microstructural Characterization of High Strain Rate Failure Modes in Layered Aluminum Composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanikar, Prasenjit

    Different aluminum alloys can be combined, as composites, for tailored dynamic applications. Most investigations pertaining to metallic alloy layered composites, however, have been based on quasi-static approaches. The dynamic failure of layered metallic composites, therefore, needs to be characterized in terms of strength, toughness, and fracture response. A dislocation-density based crystalline plasticity formulation, finite-element techniques, rational crystallographic orientation relations and a new fracture methodology were used to predict the failure modes associated with the high strain rate behavior of aluminum layered composites. Two alloy layers, a high strength alloy, aluminum 2195, and an aluminum alloy 2139, with high toughness, were modeled with representative microstructures that included precipitates, dispersed particles, and different grain boundary (GB) distributions. The new fracture methodology, based on an overlap method and phantom nodes, is used with a fracture criteria specialized for fracture on different cleavage planes. One of the objectives of this investigation, therefore, was to determine the optimal arrangements of the 2139 and 2195 aluminum alloys for a metallic layered composite that would combine strength, toughness and fracture resistance for high strain-rate applications. Different layer arrangements were investigated for high strain-rate applications, and the optimal arrangement was with the high toughness 2139 layer on the bottom, which provided extensive shear strain localization, and the high strength 2195 layer on the top for high strength resistance. The layer thickness of the bottom high toughness layer also affected the bending behavior of the roll-boned interface and the potential delamination of the layers. Shear strain localization, dynamic cracking and delamination were the mutually competing failure mechanisms for the layered metallic composite, and control of these failure modes can be optimized for high strain

  8. Predictive ability of boiler production models | Ogundu | Animal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The weekly body weight measurements of a growing strain of Ross broiler were used to compare the of ability of three mathematical models (the multi, linear, quadratic and Exponential) to predict 8 week body weight from early body measurements at weeks I, II, III, IV, V, VI and VII. The results suggest that the three models ...

  9. Prediction of strain values in reinforcements and concrete of a RC frame using neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vafaei, Mohammadreza; Alih, Sophia C.; Shad, Hossein; Falah, Ali; Halim, Nur Hajarul Falahi Abdul

    2018-03-01

    The level of strain in structural elements is an important indicator for the presence of damage and its intensity. Considering this fact, often structural health monitoring systems employ strain gauges to measure strains in critical elements. However, because of their sensitivity to the magnetic fields, inadequate long-term durability especially in harsh environments, difficulties in installation on existing structures, and maintenance cost, installation of strain gauges is not always possible for all structural components. Therefore, a reliable method that can accurately estimate strain values in critical structural elements is necessary for damage identification. In this study, a full-scale test was conducted on a planar RC frame to investigate the capability of neural networks for predicting the strain values. Two neural networks each of which having a single hidden layer was trained to relate the measured rotations and vertical displacements of the frame to the strain values measured at different locations of the frame. Results of trained neural networks indicated that they accurately estimated the strain values both in reinforcements and concrete. In addition, the trained neural networks were capable of predicting strains for the unseen input data set.

  10. Experimental Determination and Numerical Modelling of Process Induced Strains and Residual Stresses in Thick Glass/Epoxy Laminate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Michael Wenani; Hattel, Jesper Henri; Løgstrup Andersen, Tom

    2012-01-01

    dependency on temperature and cure degree. Model predictions are compared to experimentally determined in-situ strains, determined using FBG sensors. It was found that both models offer good approximations of internal strain build-up. A general shortcoming is the lack of capturing rate-dependent effects...

  11. On the Rule of Mixtures for Predicting Stress-Softening and Residual Strain Effects in Biological Tissues and Biocompatible Materials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex Elías-Zúñiga

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we use the rule of mixtures to develop an equivalent material model in which the total strain energy density is split into the isotropic part related to the matrix component and the anisotropic energy contribution related to the fiber effects. For the isotropic energy part, we select the amended non-Gaussian strain energy density model, while the energy fiber effects are added by considering the equivalent anisotropic volumetric fraction contribution, as well as the isotropized representation form of the eight-chain energy model that accounts for the material anisotropic effects. Furthermore, our proposed material model uses a phenomenological non-monotonous softening function that predicts stress softening effects and has an energy term, derived from the pseudo-elasticity theory, that accounts for residual strain deformations. The model’s theoretical predictions are compared with experimental data collected from human vaginal tissues, mice skin, poly(glycolide-co-caprolactone (PGC25 3-0 and polypropylene suture materials and tracheal and brain human tissues. In all cases examined here, our equivalent material model closely follows stress-softening and residual strain effects exhibited by experimental data.

  12. On the Rule of Mixtures for Predicting Stress-Softening and Residual Strain Effects in Biological Tissues and Biocompatible Materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elías-Zúñiga, Alex; Baylón, Karen; Ferrer, Inés; Serenó, Lídia; Garcia-Romeu, Maria Luisa; Bagudanch, Isabel; Grabalosa, Jordi; Pérez-Recio, Tania; Martínez-Romero, Oscar; Ortega-Lara, Wendy; Elizalde, Luis Ernesto

    2014-01-01

    In this work, we use the rule of mixtures to develop an equivalent material model in which the total strain energy density is split into the isotropic part related to the matrix component and the anisotropic energy contribution related to the fiber effects. For the isotropic energy part, we select the amended non-Gaussian strain energy density model, while the energy fiber effects are added by considering the equivalent anisotropic volumetric fraction contribution, as well as the isotropized representation form of the eight-chain energy model that accounts for the material anisotropic effects. Furthermore, our proposed material model uses a phenomenological non-monotonous softening function that predicts stress softening effects and has an energy term, derived from the pseudo-elasticity theory, that accounts for residual strain deformations. The model’s theoretical predictions are compared with experimental data collected from human vaginal tissues, mice skin, poly(glycolide-co-caprolactone) (PGC25 3-0) and polypropylene suture materials and tracheal and brain human tissues. In all cases examined here, our equivalent material model closely follows stress-softening and residual strain effects exhibited by experimental data. PMID:28788466

  13. Dynamic model updating based on strain mode shape and natural frequency using hybrid pattern search technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Ning; Yang, Zhichun; Wang, Le; Ouyang, Yan; Zhang, Xinping

    2018-05-01

    Aiming at providing a precise dynamic structural finite element (FE) model for dynamic strength evaluation in addition to dynamic analysis. A dynamic FE model updating method is presented to correct the uncertain parameters of the FE model of a structure using strain mode shapes and natural frequencies. The strain mode shape, which is sensitive to local changes in structure, is used instead of the displacement mode for enhancing model updating. The coordinate strain modal assurance criterion is developed to evaluate the correlation level at each coordinate over the experimental and the analytical strain mode shapes. Moreover, the natural frequencies which provide the global information of the structure are used to guarantee the accuracy of modal properties of the global model. Then, the weighted summation of the natural frequency residual and the coordinate strain modal assurance criterion residual is used as the objective function in the proposed dynamic FE model updating procedure. The hybrid genetic/pattern-search optimization algorithm is adopted to perform the dynamic FE model updating procedure. Numerical simulation and model updating experiment for a clamped-clamped beam are performed to validate the feasibility and effectiveness of the present method. The results show that the proposed method can be used to update the uncertain parameters with good robustness. And the updated dynamic FE model of the beam structure, which can correctly predict both the natural frequencies and the local dynamic strains, is reliable for the following dynamic analysis and dynamic strength evaluation.

  14. 3D Strain Modelling of Tear Fault Analogues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hindle, D.; Vietor, T.

    2005-12-01

    Tear faults can be described as vertical discontinuities, with near fault parallel displacements terminating on some sort of shallow detachment. As such, they are difficult to study in "cross section" i.e. 2 dimensions as is often the case for fold-thrust systems. Hence, little attempt has been made to model the evolution of strain around tear faults and the processes of strain localisation in such structures due to the necessity of describing these systems in 3 dimensions and the problems this poses for both numerical and analogue modelling. Field studies suggest that strain in such regions can be distributed across broad zones on minor tear systems, which are often not easily mappable. Such strain is probably assumed to be due to distributed strain and to displacement gradients which are themselves necessary for the initiation of the tear itself. We present a numerical study of the effects of a sharp, basal discontinutiy parallel to the transport direction in a shortening wedge of material. The discontinuity is represented by two adjacent basal surfaces with strongly contrasting (0.5 and 0.05) friction coefficient. The material is modelled using PFC3D distinct element software for simulating granular material, whose properties are chosen to simulate upper crustal, sedimentary rock. The model geometry is a rectangular bounding box, 2km x 1km, and 0.35-0.5km deep, with a single, driving wall of constant velocity. We show the evolution of strain in the model in horizontal and vertical sections, and interpret strain localization as showing the spontaneous development of tear fault like features. The strain field in the model is asymmetrical, rotated towards the strong side of the model. Strain increments seem to oscillate in time, suggesting achievement of a steady state. We also note that our model cannot be treated as a critical wedge, since the 3rd dimension and the lateral variations of strength rule out this type of 2D approximation.

  15. Metabolic Modeling of Common Escherichia coli Strains in Human Gut Microbiome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yue-Dong Gao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The recent high-throughput sequencing has enabled the composition of Escherichia coli strains in the human microbial community to be profiled en masse. However, there are two challenges to address: (1 exploring the genetic differences between E. coli strains in human gut and (2 dynamic responses of E. coli to diverse stress conditions. As a result, we investigated the E. coli strains in human gut microbiome using deep sequencing data and reconstructed genome-wide metabolic networks for the three most common E. coli strains, including E. coli HS, UTI89, and CFT073. The metabolic models show obvious strain-specific characteristics, both in network contents and in behaviors. We predicted optimal biomass production for three models on four different carbon sources (acetate, ethanol, glucose, and succinate and found that these stress-associated genes were involved in host-microbial interactions and increased in human obesity. Besides, it shows that the growth rates are similar among the models, but the flux distributions are different, even in E. coli core reactions. The correlations between human diabetes-associated metabolic reactions in the E. coli models were also predicted. The study provides a systems perspective on E. coli strains in human gut microbiome and will be helpful in integrating diverse data sources in the following study.

  16. Simple regional strain pattern analysis to predict response to cardiac resynchronization therapy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Risum, Niels; Jons, Christian; Olsen, Niels T

    2012-01-01

    A classical strain pattern of early contraction in one wall and prestretching of the opposing wall followed by late contraction has previously been associated with left bundle branch block (LBBB) activation and short-term response to cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). Aims of this study were...... to establish the long-term predictive value of an LBBB-related strain pattern and to identify changes in contraction patterns during short-term and long-term CRT....

  17. Performance Characteristics and Prediction of Bodyweight using Linear Body Measurements in Four Strains of Broiler Chicken

    OpenAIRE

    I. Udeh; J.O. Isikwenu and G. Ukughere

    2011-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to compare the performance characteristics of four strains of broiler chicken from 2 to 8 weeks of age and predict body weight of the broilers using linear body measurements. The four strains of broiler chicken used were Anak, Arbor Acre, Ross and Marshall. The parameters recorded were bodyweight, weight gain, total feed intake, feed conversion ratio, mortality and some linear body measurements (body length, body width, breast width, drumstick length, shank l...

  18. An improved Armstrong-Frederick-Type Plasticity Model for Stable Cyclic Stress-Strain Responses Considering Nonproportional Hardening

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jing; Zhang, Zhong-ping; Li, Chun-wang

    2018-03-01

    This paper modified an Armstrong-Frederick-type plasticity model for investigating the stable cyclic deformation behavior of metallic materials with different sensitivity to nonproportional loadings. In the modified model, the nonproportionality factor and nonproportional cyclic hardening coefficient coupled with the Jiang-Sehitoglu incremental plasticity model were used to estimate the stable stress-strain responses of the two materials (1045HR steel and 304 stainless steel) under various tension-torsion strain paths. A new equation was proposed to calculate the nonproportionality factor on the basis of the minimum normal strain range. Procedures to determine the minimum normal strain range were presented for general multiaxial loadings. Then, the modified model requires only the cyclic strain hardening exponent and cyclic strength coefficient to determine the material constants. It is convenient for predicting the stable stress-strain responses of materials in engineering application. Comparisons showed that the modified model can reflect the effect of nonproportional cyclic hardening well.

  19. A theoretical model on surface electronic behavior: Strain effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qin, W.G.; Shaw, D.

    2009-01-01

    Deformation from mechanical loading can affect surface electronic behavior. Surface deformation and electronic behavior can be quantitatively expressed using strain and work function, respectively, and their experimental relationship can be readily determined using the Kelvin probing technique. However, the theoretical correlation between work function and strain has been unclear. This study reports our theoretical exploration, for the first time, of the effect of strain on work function. We propose a simple electrostatic action model by considering the effect of a dislocation on work function of a one-dimensional lattice and further extend this model to the complex conditions for the effect of dislocation density. Based on this model, we established successfully a theoretical correlation between work function and strain.

  20. COMPUTER MODELING OF STRAINS ON PHASE BOUNDARIES IN DUCTILE CAST IRON AT HOT EXTRUSION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. Pokrovsky

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The computer modeling of the strain distribution in the structure of ductile iron with ferrite-pearlite matrix and inclusions of spherical graphite dependence on increasing degree of deformation during direct hot extrusion was researched. Using a software system of finite-element analysis ANSYS the numerical values of the strains at the phase boundaries: ferrite-perlite, graphiteferrite and also inside the graphite inclusions were defined. The analysis of the strain distribution in the investigated structures was performed and local zones of increased strains were discovered. The results of modeling are compared with metallographic analysis and fracture patterns. The obtained results could be used in the prediction of fracture zones in the cast iron products. 

  1. Perceived exertion is as effective as the perceptual strain index in predicting physiological strain when wearing personal protective clothing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borg, David N; Costello, Joseph T; Bach, Aaron J; Stewart, Ian B

    2017-02-01

    The perceptual strain index (PeSI) has been shown to overcome the limitations associated with the assessment of the physiological strain index (PSI), primarily the need to obtain a core body temperature measurement. The PeSI uses the subjective scales of thermal sensation and perceived exertion (RPE) to provide surrogate measures of core temperature and heart rate, respectively. Unfortunately, thermal sensation has shown large variability in providing an estimation of core body temperature. Therefore, the primary aim of this study was to determine if thermal comfort improved the ability of the PeSI to predict the PSI during exertional-heat stress. Eighteen healthy males (age: 23.5years; body mass: 79.4kg; maximal aerobic capacity: 57.2ml·kg -1 ·min -1 ) wore four different chemical/biological protective garments while walking on treadmill at a low (temperatures 21, 30 or 37°C. Trials were terminated when heart rate exceeded 90% of maximum, when core body temperature reached 39°C, at 120min or due to volitional fatigue. Core body temperature, heart rate, thermal sensation, thermal comfort and RPE were recorded at 15min intervals and at termination. Multiple statistical methods were used to determine the most accurate perceptual predictor. Significant moderate relationships were observed between the PeSI (r=0.74; pestimate physiological strain during exertional-heat stress under these work conditions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. A study of fatigue life prediction for automotive spot weldment using local strain approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Song In; Yu, Hyo Sun; Na, Sung Hun; Na, Eui Gyun

    2000-01-01

    The fatigue crack initiation life is studied on automotive spot weldment made from cold rolled carbon steel(SPC) sheet by using DCPDM and local strain approach. It can be found that the fatigue crack initiation behavior in spot weldment can be definitely detected by DCPDM system. The local stresses and strains are estimated by elastic-plastic FEM analysis and the alternative approximate method based on Neuber's rule were applied to predict the fatigue life of spot weldment. A satisfactory correlation between the predicted life and experimental life can be found in spot weldment within a factor of 4

  3. Strained spiral vortex model for turbulent fine structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundgren, T. S.

    1982-01-01

    A model for the intermittent fine structure of high Reynolds number turbulence is proposed. The model consists of slender axially strained spiral vortex solutions of the Navier-Stokes equation. The tightening of the spiral turns by the differential rotation of the induced swirling velocity produces a cascade of velocity fluctuations to smaller scale. The Kolmogorov energy spectrum is a result of this model.

  4. Fatigue properties of JIS H3300 C1220 copper for strain life prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harun, Muhammad Faiz; Mohammad, Roslina

    2018-05-01

    The existing methods for estimating strain life parameters are dependent on the material's monotonic tensile properties. However, a few of these methods yield quite complicated expressions for calculating fatigue parameters, and are specific to certain groups of materials only. The Universal Slopes method, Modified Universal Slopes method, Uniform Material Law, the Hardness method, and Medians method are a few existing methods for predicting strain-life fatigue based on monotonic tensile material properties and hardness of material. In the present study, nine methods for estimating fatigue life and properties are applied on JIS H3300 C1220 copper to determine the best methods for strain life estimation of this ductile material. Experimental strain-life curves are compared to estimations obtained using each method. Muralidharan-Manson's Modified Universal Slopes method and Bäumel-Seeger's method for unalloyed and low-alloy steels are found to yield batter accuracy in estimating fatigue life with a deviation of less than 25%. However, the prediction of both methods only yield much better accuracy for a cycle of less than 1000 or for strain amplitudes of more than 1% and less than 6%. Manson's Original Universal Slopes method and Ong's Modified Four-Point Correlation method are found to predict the strain-life fatigue of copper with better accuracy for a high number of cycles of strain amplitudes of less than 1%. The differences between mechanical behavior during monotonic and cyclic loading and the complexity in deciding the coefficient in an equation are probably the reason for the lack of a reliable method for estimating fatigue behavior using the monotonic properties of a group of materials. It is therefore suggested that a differential approach and new expressions be developed to estimate the strain-life fatigue parameters for ductile materials such as copper.

  5. Peri-Implant Strain in an In Vitro Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussaini, Souheil; Vaidyanathan, Tritala K; Wadkar, Abhinav P; Quran, Firas A Al; Ehrenberg, David; Weiner, Saul

    2015-10-01

    An in vitro experimental model was designed and tested to determine the influence that peri-implant strain may have on the overall crestal bone. Strain gages were attached to polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) models containing a screw-type root form implant at sites 1 mm from the resin-implant interface. Three different types of crown superstructures (cemented, 1-screw [UCLA] and 2-screw abutment types) were tested. Loading (1 Hz, 200 N load) was performed using a MTS Mechanical Test System. The strain gage data were stored and organized in a computer for statistical treatment. Strains for all abutment types did not exceed the physiological range for modeling and remodeling of cancellous bone, 200-2500 με (microstrain). For approximately one-quarter of the trials, the strain values were less than 200 με the zone for bone atrophy. The mean microstrain obtained was 517.7 με. In conclusion, the peri-implant strain in this in vitro model did not exceed the physiologic range of bone remodeling under axial occlusal loading.

  6. Rupture prediction for induction bends under opening mode bending with emphasis on strain localization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitsuya, Masaki; Sakanoue, Takashi

    2015-01-01

    This study focuses on the opening mode of induction bends; this mode represents the deformation outside a bend. Bending experiments on induction bends are shown and the manner of failure of these bends was investigated. Ruptures occur at the intrados of the bends, which undergo tensile stress, and accompany the local reduction of wall thickness, i.e., necking that indicates strain localization. By implementing finite element analysis (FEA), it was shown that the rupture is dominated not by the fracture criterion of material but by the initiation of strain localization that is a deformation characteristic of the material. These ruptures are due to the rapid increase of local strain after the initiation of strain localization and suddenly reach the fracture criterion. For the evaluation of the deformability of the bends, a method based on FEA that can predict the displacement at the rupture is proposed. We show that the yield surface shape and the true stress–strain relationship after uniform elongation have to be defined on the basis of the actual properties of the bend material. The von Mises yield criterion, which is commonly used in cases of elastic–plastic FEA, could not predict the rupture and overestimated the deformability. In contrast, a yield surface obtained by performing tensile tests on a biaxial specimen could predict the rupture. The prediction of the rupture was accomplished by an inverse calibration method that determined the true stress-strain relationship after uniform elongation. As an alternative to the inverse calibration, a simple extrapolation method of the true stress-strain relationship after uniform elongation which can predict the rupture is proposed. - Highlights: • A method based on FEA that can predict the displacement at the rupture is proposed. • The yield surface shape and the true stress–strain have to be defined precisely. • The von Mises yield criterion overestimated the deformability. • The ruptures are due to the

  7. Strain in the mesoscale kinetic Monte Carlo model for sintering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørk, Rasmus; Frandsen, Henrik Lund; Tikare, V.

    2014-01-01

    anisotropic strains for homogeneous powder compacts with aspect ratios different from unity. It is shown that the line direction biases shrinkage strains in proportion the compact dimension aspect ratios. A new algorithm that corrects this bias in strains is proposed; the direction for collapsing the column...... densification by vacancy annihilation removes an isolated pore site at a grain boundary and collapses a column of sites extending from the vacancy to the surface of sintering compact, through the center of mass of the nearest grain. Using this algorithm, the existing published kMC models are shown to produce...

  8. Micromechanical modeling of stress-induced strain in polycrystalline Ni–Mn–Ga by directional solidification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Yuping; Shi, Tao; Teng, Yao

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A micromechanical model of directional solidification Ni–Mn–Ga is developed. • The stress–strain curves in different directions are tested. • The martensite Young’s moduli in different directions are predicted. • The macro reorientation strains in different directions are investigated. - Abstract: Polycrystalline ferromagnetic shape memory alloy Ni–Mn–Ga produced by directional solidification possess unique properties. Its compressive stress–strain behaviors in loading–unloading cycle show nonlinear and anisotropic. Based on the self-consistent theory and thermodynamics principle, a micromechanical constitutive model of polycrystalline Ni–Mn–Ga by directional solidification is developed considering the generating mechanism of the macroscopic strain and anisotropy. Then, the stress induced strains at different angles to solidification direction are calculated, and the results agree well with the experimental data. The predictive curves of martensite Young’s modulus and macro reorientation strain in different directions are investigated. It may provide theoretical guidance for the design and use of ferromagnetic shape memory alloy

  9. Modelling of behaviour of metals at high strain rates

    OpenAIRE

    Panov, Vili

    2006-01-01

    The aim of the work presented in this thesis was to produce the improvement of the existing simulation tools used for the analysis of materials and structures, which are dynamically loaded and subjected to the different levels of temperatures and strain rates. The main objective of this work was development of tools for modelling of strain rate and temperature dependant behaviour of aluminium alloys, typical for aerospace structures with pronounced orthotropic properties, and their implementa...

  10. Systolic Strain Abnormalities to Predict Hospital Readmission in Patients With Heart Failure and Normal Ejection Fraction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borer, Steven M.; Kokkirala, Aravind; O'Sullivan, David M.; Silverman, David I.

    2011-01-01

    Background Despite intensive investigation, the pathogenesis of heart failure with normal ejection fraction (HFNEF) remains unclear. We hypothesized that subtle abnormalities of systolic function might play a role, and that abnormal systolic strain and strain rate would provide a marker for adverse outcomes. Methods Patients of new CHF and left ventricular ejection fraction > 50% were included. Exclusion criteria were recent myocardial infarction, severe valvular heart disease, severe left ventricular hypertrophy (septum >1.8 cm), or a technically insufficient echocardiogram. Average peak systolic strain and strain rate were measured using an off-line grey scale imaging technique. Systolic strain and strain rate for readmitted patients were compared with those who remained readmission-free. Results One hundred consecutive patients with a 1st admission for HFNEF from January 1, 2004 through December 31, 2007, inclusive, were analyzed. Fifty two patients were readmitted with a primary diagnosis of heart failure. Systolic strain and strain rates were reduced in both study groups compared to controls. However, systolic strain did not differ significantly between the two groups (-11.7% for those readmitted compared with -12.9% for those free from readmission, P = 0.198) and systolic strain rates also were similar (-1.05 s-1 versus -1.09 s-1, P = 0.545). E/e’ was significantly higher in readmitted patients compared with those who remained free from readmission (14.5 versus 11.0, P = 0.013). E/e’ (OR 1.189, 95% CI 1.026-1.378; P = 0.021) was found to be an independent predictor for HFNEF readmission. Conclusions Among patients with new onset HFNEF, SS and SR rates are reduced compared with patients free of HFNEF, but do not predict hospital readmission. Elevated E/e’ is a predictor of readmission in these patients. PMID:28352395

  11. Sweat loss prediction using a multi-model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xiaojiang; Santee, William R

    2011-07-01

    A new multi-model approach (MMA) for sweat loss prediction is proposed to improve prediction accuracy. MMA was computed as the average of sweat loss predicted by two existing thermoregulation models: i.e., the rational model SCENARIO and the empirical model Heat Strain Decision Aid (HSDA). Three independent physiological datasets, a total of 44 trials, were used to compare predictions by MMA, SCENARIO, and HSDA. The observed sweat losses were collected under different combinations of uniform ensembles, environmental conditions (15-40°C, RH 25-75%), and exercise intensities (250-600 W). Root mean square deviation (RMSD), residual plots, and paired t tests were used to compare predictions with observations. Overall, MMA reduced RMSD by 30-39% in comparison with either SCENARIO or HSDA, and increased the prediction accuracy to 66% from 34% or 55%. Of the MMA predictions, 70% fell within the range of mean observed value ± SD, while only 43% of SCENARIO and 50% of HSDA predictions fell within the same range. Paired t tests showed that differences between observations and MMA predictions were not significant, but differences between observations and SCENARIO or HSDA predictions were significantly different for two datasets. Thus, MMA predicted sweat loss more accurately than either of the two single models for the three datasets used. Future work will be to evaluate MMA using additional physiological data to expand the scope of populations and conditions.

  12. Modeling and Calculation of Dent Based on Pipeline Bending Strain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingshan Feng

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The bending strain of long-distance oil and gas pipelines can be calculated by the in-line inspection tool which used inertial measurement unit (IMU. The bending strain is used to evaluate the strain and displacement of the pipeline. During the bending strain inspection, the dent existing in the pipeline can affect the bending strain data as well. This paper presents a novel method to model and calculate the pipeline dent based on the bending strain. The technique takes inertial mapping data from in-line inspection and calculates depth of dent in the pipeline using Bayesian statistical theory and neural network. To verify accuracy of the proposed method, an in-line inspection tool is used to inspect pipeline to gather data. The calculation of dent shows the method is accurate for the dent, and the mean relative error is 2.44%. The new method provides not only strain of the pipeline dent but also the depth of dent. It is more benefit for integrity management of pipeline for the safety of the pipeline.

  13. Prediction of material creep behaviour for strain based life assessment applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rantala, J.H.; Hurst, R.C. [EC JRC IAM, Petten (Netherlands); Bregani, F. [ENEL, Milan (Italy)

    1998-12-31

    In this work the idea of using constant load uniaxial creep test results instead of constant stress results for developing a CDM creep model for the P92 material is demonstrated. Due to limited availability of creep test results this work is based on incomplete test data and a general stress rupture line. In spite of these limitations a material creep model was developed for use in a FE analysis. Using P91 material as an example, a method is proposed to account for differences in strain evolution as a function of stress which normally manifests itself as lower strain values at low stresses in a normalised time-strain plot. This allows the CDM model to be used both in FE analysis and in strain-based life assessment engineering calculations. (orig.) 3 refs.

  14. Prediction of material creep behaviour for strain based life assessment applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rantala, J H; Hurst, R C [EC JRC IAM, Petten (Netherlands); Bregani, F [ENEL, Milan (Italy)

    1999-12-31

    In this work the idea of using constant load uniaxial creep test results instead of constant stress results for developing a CDM creep model for the P92 material is demonstrated. Due to limited availability of creep test results this work is based on incomplete test data and a general stress rupture line. In spite of these limitations a material creep model was developed for use in a FE analysis. Using P91 material as an example, a method is proposed to account for differences in strain evolution as a function of stress which normally manifests itself as lower strain values at low stresses in a normalised time-strain plot. This allows the CDM model to be used both in FE analysis and in strain-based life assessment engineering calculations. (orig.) 3 refs.

  15. Computational model of 18650 lithium-ion battery with coupled strain rate and SOC dependencies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, Jun; Liu, Binghe; Wang, Xinyi; Hu, Dayong

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • An anisotropic model to describe mechanical behaviors of LIB is established. • SOC dependency is included in the mechanical model of the jellyroll. • Dynamic effect is considered in the model for LIB. - Abstract: Highly nonlinear structures and constituent materials and hazardous experiment situations have resulted in a pressing need for a numerical mechanical model for lithium-ion battery (LIB). However, such a model is still not well established. In this paper, an anisotropic homogeneous model describing the jellyroll and the battery shell is established and validated through compression, indentation, and bending tests at quasi-static loadings. In this model, state-of-charge (SOC) dependency of the LIB is further included through an analogy with the strain-rate effect. Moreover, with consideration of the inertia and strain-rate effects, the anisotropic homogeneous model is extended into the dynamic regime and proven capable of predicting the dynamic response of the LIB using the drop-weight test. The established model may help to predict extreme cases with high SOCs and crashing speeds with an over 135% improved accuracy compared to traditional models. The established coupled strain rate and SOC dependencies of the numerical mechanical model for the LIB aims to provide a solid step toward unraveling and quantifying the complicated problems for research on LIB mechanical integrity.

  16. Model predictive control using fuzzy decision functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaymak, U.; Costa Sousa, da J.M.

    2001-01-01

    Fuzzy predictive control integrates conventional model predictive control with techniques from fuzzy multicriteria decision making, translating the goals and the constraints to predictive control in a transparent way. The information regarding the (fuzzy) goals and the (fuzzy) constraints of the

  17. Comparison of physically based constitutive models characterizing armor steel over wide temperature and strain rate ranges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, Zejian; Huang, Fenglei

    2012-01-01

    Both descriptive and predictive capabilities of five physically based constitutive models (PB, NNL, ZA, VA, and RK) are investigated and compared systematically, in characterizing plastic behavior of the 603 steel at temperatures ranging from 288 to 873 K, and strain rates ranging from 0.001 to 4500 s −1 . Determination of the constitutive parameters is introduced in detail for each model. Validities of the established models are checked by strain rate jump tests performed under different loading conditions. The results show that the RK and NNL models have better performance in the description of material behavior, especially the work-hardening effect, while the PB and VA models predict better. The inconsistency that is observed between the capabilities of description and prediction of the models indicates the existence of the minimum number of required fitting data, reflecting the degree of a model's requirement for basic data in parameter calibration. It is also found that the description capability of a model is dependent to a large extent on both its form and the number of its constitutive parameters, while the precision of prediction relies largely on the performance of description. In the selection of constitutive models, the experimental data and the constitutive models should be considered synthetically to obtain a better efficiency in material behavior characterization

  18. Low dose aerosol fitness at the innate phase of murine infection better predicts virulence amongst clinical strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caceres, Neus; Llopis, Isaac; Marzo, Elena; Prats, Clara; Vilaplana, Cristina; de Viedma, Dario Garcia; Samper, Sofía; Lopez, Daniel; Cardona, Pere-Joan

    2012-01-01

    Evaluation of a quick and easy model to determine the intrinsic ability of clinical strains to generate active TB has been set by assuming that this is linked to the fitness of Mycobacterium tuberculosis strain at the innate phase of the infection. Thus, the higher the bacillary load, the greater the possibility of inducting liquefaction, and thus active TB, once the adaptive response is set. The virulence of seven clinical Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains isolated in Spain was tested by determining the bacillary concentration in the spleen and lung of mice at weeks 0, 1 and 2 after intravenous (IV) inoculation of 10⁴ CFU, and by determining the growth in vitro until the stationary phase had been reached. Cord distribution automated analysis showed two clear patterns related to the high and low fitness in the lung after IV infection. This pattern was not seen in the in vitro fitness tests, which clearly favored the reference strain (H37Rv). Subsequent determination using a more physiological low-dose aerosol (AER) inoculation with 10² CFU showed a third pattern in which the three best values coincided with the highest dissemination capacity according to epidemiological data. The fitness obtained after low dose aerosol administration in the presence of the innate immune response is the most predictive factor for determining the virulence of clinical strains. This gives support to a mechanism of the induction of active TB derived from the dynamic hypothesis of latent tuberculosis infection.

  19. Analytical Modeling of the High Strain Rate Deformation of Polymer Matrix Composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, Robert K.; Roberts, Gary D.; Gilat, Amos

    2003-01-01

    The results presented here are part of an ongoing research program to develop strain rate dependent deformation and failure models for the analysis of polymer matrix composites subject to high strain rate impact loads. State variable constitutive equations originally developed for metals have been modified in order to model the nonlinear, strain rate dependent deformation of polymeric matrix materials. To account for the effects of hydrostatic stresses, which are significant in polymers, the classical 5 plasticity theory definitions of effective stress and effective plastic strain are modified by applying variations of the Drucker-Prager yield criterion. To verify the revised formulation, the shear and tensile deformation of a representative toughened epoxy is analyzed across a wide range of strain rates (from quasi-static to high strain rates) and the results are compared to experimentally obtained values. For the analyzed polymers, both the tensile and shear stress-strain curves computed using the analytical model correlate well with values obtained through experimental tests. The polymer constitutive equations are implemented within a strength of materials based micromechanics method to predict the nonlinear, strain rate dependent deformation of polymer matrix composites. In the micromechanics, the unit cell is divided up into a number of independently analyzed slices, and laminate theory is then applied to obtain the effective deformation of the unit cell. The composite mechanics are verified by analyzing the deformation of a representative polymer matrix composite (composed using the representative polymer analyzed for the correlation of the polymer constitutive equations) for several fiber orientation angles across a variety of strain rates. The computed values compare favorably to experimentally obtained results.

  20. Deformation modeling and the strain transient dip test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, W.B.; Rohde, R.W.; Swearengen, J.C.

    1980-01-01

    Recent efforts in material deformation modeling reveal a trend toward unifying creep and plasticity with a single rate-dependent formulation. While such models can describe actual material deformation, most require a number of different experiments to generate model parameter information. Recently, however, a new model has been proposed in which most of the requisite constants may be found by examining creep transients brought about through abrupt changes in creep stress (strain transient dip test). The critical measurement in this test is the absence of a resolvable creep rate after a stress drop. As a consequence, the result is extraordinarily sensitive to strain resolution as well as machine mechanical response. This paper presents the design of a machine in which these spurious effects have been minimized and discusses the nature of the strain transient dip test using the example of aluminum. It is concluded that the strain transient dip test is not useful as the primary test for verifying any micromechanical model of deformation. Nevertheless, if a model can be developed which is verifiable by other experimentts, data from a dip test machine may be used to generate model parameters

  1. Modeling elastic anisotropy in strained heteroepitaxy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixit, Gopal Krishna; Ranganathan, Madhav

    2017-09-20

    Using a continuum evolution equation, we model the growth and evolution of quantum dots in the heteroepitaxial Ge on Si(0 0 1) system in a molecular beam epitaxy unit. We formulate our model in terms of evolution due to deposition, and due to surface diffusion which is governed by a free energy. This free energy has contributions from surface energy, curvature, wetting effects and elastic energy due to lattice mismatch between the film and the substrate. In addition to anisotropy due to surface energy which favors facet formation, we also incorporate elastic anisotropy due to an underlying crystal lattice. The complicated elastic problem of the film-substrate system subjected to boundary conditions at the free surface, interface and the bulk substrate is solved by perturbation analysis using a small slope approximation. This permits an analysis of effects at different orders in the slope and sheds new light on the observed behavior. Linear stability analysis shows the early evolution of the instability towards dot formation. The elastic anisotropy causes a change in the alignment of dots in the linear regime, whereas the surface energy anisotropy changes the dot shapes at the nonlinear regime. Numerical simulation of the full nonlinear equations shows the evolution of the surface morphology. In particular, we show, for parameters of the [Formula: see text] [Formula: see text] on Si(0 0 1), the surface energy anisotropy dominates the shapes of the quantum dots, whereas their alignment is influenced by the elastic energy anisotropy. The anisotropy in elasticity causes a further elongation of the islands whose coarsening is interrupted due to [Formula: see text] facets on the surface.

  2. Modeling elastic anisotropy in strained heteroepitaxy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishna Dixit, Gopal; Ranganathan, Madhav

    2017-09-01

    Using a continuum evolution equation, we model the growth and evolution of quantum dots in the heteroepitaxial Ge on Si(0 0 1) system in a molecular beam epitaxy unit. We formulate our model in terms of evolution due to deposition, and due to surface diffusion which is governed by a free energy. This free energy has contributions from surface energy, curvature, wetting effects and elastic energy due to lattice mismatch between the film and the substrate. In addition to anisotropy due to surface energy which favors facet formation, we also incorporate elastic anisotropy due to an underlying crystal lattice. The complicated elastic problem of the film-substrate system subjected to boundary conditions at the free surface, interface and the bulk substrate is solved by perturbation analysis using a small slope approximation. This permits an analysis of effects at different orders in the slope and sheds new light on the observed behavior. Linear stability analysis shows the early evolution of the instability towards dot formation. The elastic anisotropy causes a change in the alignment of dots in the linear regime, whereas the surface energy anisotropy changes the dot shapes at the nonlinear regime. Numerical simulation of the full nonlinear equations shows the evolution of the surface morphology. In particular, we show, for parameters of the Ge0.25 Si0.75 on Si(0 0 1), the surface energy anisotropy dominates the shapes of the quantum dots, whereas their alignment is influenced by the elastic energy anisotropy. The anisotropy in elasticity causes a further elongation of the islands whose coarsening is interrupted due to facets on the surface.

  3. Separation and prediction of irrecoverable strain components of concrete during the first thermal cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khoury, G.A.

    1993-01-01

    Strains of three AGR type concretes were measured during the first heat cycle and their relative thermal stability determined. It was possible to isolate for the first time the shrinkage and creep components for the period during heating-up. Predictions of the residual strains for the loaded specimens can be made by simple superposition of creep and shrinkage components up to a certain critical temperature, which for basalt concrete is about 500 deg. C and limestone concrete is about 200-300 deg. C. Above the critical temperature, it is necessary to add a 'cracking component'. (author)

  4. Composite Cure Process Modeling and Simulations using COMPRO(Registered Trademark) and Validation of Residual Strains using Fiber Optics Sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sreekantamurthy, Thammaiah; Hudson, Tyler B.; Hou, Tan-Hung; Grimsley, Brian W.

    2016-01-01

    Composite cure process induced residual strains and warping deformations in composite components present significant challenges in the manufacturing of advanced composite structure. As a part of the Manufacturing Process and Simulation initiative of the NASA Advanced Composite Project (ACP), research is being conducted on the composite cure process by developing an understanding of the fundamental mechanisms by which the process induced factors influence the residual responses. In this regard, analytical studies have been conducted on the cure process modeling of composite structural parts with varied physical, thermal, and resin flow process characteristics. The cure process simulation results were analyzed to interpret the cure response predictions based on the underlying physics incorporated into the modeling tool. In the cure-kinetic analysis, the model predictions on the degree of cure, resin viscosity and modulus were interpreted with reference to the temperature distribution in the composite panel part and tool setup during autoclave or hot-press curing cycles. In the fiber-bed compaction simulation, the pore pressure and resin flow velocity in the porous media models, and the compaction strain responses under applied pressure were studied to interpret the fiber volume fraction distribution predictions. In the structural simulation, the effect of temperature on the resin and ply modulus, and thermal coefficient changes during curing on predicted mechanical strains and chemical cure shrinkage strains were studied to understand the residual strains and stress response predictions. In addition to computational analysis, experimental studies were conducted to measure strains during the curing of laminated panels by means of optical fiber Bragg grating sensors (FBGs) embedded in the resin impregnated panels. The residual strain measurements from laboratory tests were then compared with the analytical model predictions. The paper describes the cure process

  5. Verification of a mechanistic model for the strain rate of zircaloy-4 fuel sheaths during transient heating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunt, C.E.L.

    1980-10-01

    A mechanistic strain rate model for Zircaloy-4, named NIRVANA, was tested against experiments where pressurized fuel sheaths were strained during complex temperature-stress-time histories. The same histories were then examined to determine the spread in calculated strain which may be expected because of variations in dimensions, chemical content and mechanical properties which are allowed in the fuel sheath specifications. It was found that the variations allowed by the specifications could result in a probable spread in the predicted strain of plus or minus a factor of two from the mean value. The experimental results were well within this range. (auth)

  6. Modelling and simulation of dynamic recrystallization (DRX) in OFHC copper at very high strain rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Testa, G.; Bonora, N.; Ruggiero, A.; Iannitti, G.; Persechino, I.; Hörnqvist, M.; Mortazavi, N.

    2017-01-01

    At high strain rates, deformation processes are essentially adiabatic and if the plastic work is large enough dynamic recrystallization can occur. In this work, an examination on microstructure evolution of OFHC copper in Dynamic Tensile Extrusion (DTE) test, performed at 400 m/s, was carried out. EBSD investigations, along the center line of the fragment remaining in the extrusion die, showed a progressive elongation of the grains, and an accompanying development of a strong + dual fiber texture. Discontinuous dynamic recrystallization (DRX) occurred at larger strains, and it was showed that nucleation occurred during straining. A criterion for DRX to occur, based on the evolution of Zener-Hollomon parameter during the dynamic deformation process, is proposed. Finally, DTE test was simulated using the modified Rusinek-Klepaczko constitutive model incorporating a model for the prediction of DRX initiation.

  7. Evaluation of burst pressure prediction models for line pipes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Xian-Kui; Leis, Brian N.

    2012-01-01

    Accurate prediction of burst pressure plays a central role in engineering design and integrity assessment of oil and gas pipelines. Theoretical and empirical solutions for such prediction are evaluated in this paper relative to a burst pressure database comprising more than 100 tests covering a variety of pipeline steel grades and pipe sizes. Solutions considered include three based on plasticity theory for the end-capped, thin-walled, defect-free line pipe subjected to internal pressure in terms of the Tresca, von Mises, and ZL (or Zhu-Leis) criteria, one based on a cylindrical instability stress (CIS) concept, and a large group of analytical and empirical models previously evaluated by Law and Bowie (International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping, 84, 2007: 487–492). It is found that these models can be categorized into either a Tresca-family or a von Mises-family of solutions, except for those due to Margetson and Zhu-Leis models. The viability of predictions is measured via statistical analyses in terms of a mean error and its standard deviation. Consistent with an independent parallel evaluation using another large database, the Zhu-Leis solution is found best for predicting burst pressure, including consideration of strain hardening effects, while the Tresca strength solutions including Barlow, Maximum shear stress, Turner, and the ASME boiler code provide reasonably good predictions for the class of line-pipe steels with intermediate strain hardening response. - Highlights: ► This paper evaluates different burst pressure prediction models for line pipes. ► The existing models are categorized into two major groups of Tresca and von Mises solutions. ► Prediction quality of each model is assessed statistically using a large full-scale burst test database. ► The Zhu-Leis solution is identified as the best predictive model.

  8. Evaluation of burst pressure prediction models for line pipes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu, Xian-Kui, E-mail: zhux@battelle.org [Battelle Memorial Institute, 505 King Avenue, Columbus, OH 43201 (United States); Leis, Brian N. [Battelle Memorial Institute, 505 King Avenue, Columbus, OH 43201 (United States)

    2012-01-15

    Accurate prediction of burst pressure plays a central role in engineering design and integrity assessment of oil and gas pipelines. Theoretical and empirical solutions for such prediction are evaluated in this paper relative to a burst pressure database comprising more than 100 tests covering a variety of pipeline steel grades and pipe sizes. Solutions considered include three based on plasticity theory for the end-capped, thin-walled, defect-free line pipe subjected to internal pressure in terms of the Tresca, von Mises, and ZL (or Zhu-Leis) criteria, one based on a cylindrical instability stress (CIS) concept, and a large group of analytical and empirical models previously evaluated by Law and Bowie (International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping, 84, 2007: 487-492). It is found that these models can be categorized into either a Tresca-family or a von Mises-family of solutions, except for those due to Margetson and Zhu-Leis models. The viability of predictions is measured via statistical analyses in terms of a mean error and its standard deviation. Consistent with an independent parallel evaluation using another large database, the Zhu-Leis solution is found best for predicting burst pressure, including consideration of strain hardening effects, while the Tresca strength solutions including Barlow, Maximum shear stress, Turner, and the ASME boiler code provide reasonably good predictions for the class of line-pipe steels with intermediate strain hardening response. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer This paper evaluates different burst pressure prediction models for line pipes. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The existing models are categorized into two major groups of Tresca and von Mises solutions. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Prediction quality of each model is assessed statistically using a large full-scale burst test database. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The Zhu-Leis solution is identified as the best predictive model.

  9. Micromechanical modelling of the cyclic stress-strain behaviour of nickel polycrystals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steckmeyer, A.; Sauzay, M.; Weidner, A.; Hieckmann, E.

    2012-01-01

    A crystalline elasto-plasticity model is proposed to describe the cyclic behaviour of face-centred cubic crystals. It is based on many experimental observations correlating the observed dislocation structures with the orientations of corresponding crystals. The model distinguishes between two families of crystals. The first family gathers crystals for which the tension-compression loading axis is located in the centre of the standard stereo-graphic triangle. These crystals, in which bundle and/or slip band dislocation structures are usually observed, are subjected to single slip deformation. The second family gathers crystals in which labyrinths or wall dislocation structures develop. These crystals are subjected to multiple slip deformation. Crystalline plasticity parameters are adjusted using only the single crystal cyclic stress strain curves measured for one orientation of each of the two families. The relevance of the model is evaluated through finite elements calculations of the uniaxial cyclic deformation of texture-free nickel polycrystals at room temperature. The macroscopic predictions are in reasonable agreement with experimental data concerning both the cyclic stress-strain curve and the hysteresis loops provided either large grain sizes or intermediate to high plastic strains are considered. By construction, the modelling is unable to predict grain size effect observed at low plastic strain. The distributions of the mean grain plastic strains become narrower as the macroscopic plastic strain amplitude increases, which appears consistent with the large scattering in high-cycle fatigue lifetimes usually observed. On the contrary, the distributions of mean grain axial stresses get broader, in agreement with neutron and X-ray diffraction measurement values published in the literature. The influence of the material parameters is then discussed. Finally, the cumulative probability curves of the number of cycles to fatigue microcrack nucleation are deduced

  10. General Friction Model Extended by the Effect of Strain Hardening

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Chris V.; Martins, Paulo A.F.; Bay, Niels

    2016-01-01

    An extension to the general friction model proposed by Wanheim and Bay [1] to include the effect of strain hardening is proposed. The friction model relates the friction stress to the fraction of real contact area by a friction factor under steady state sliding. The original model for the real...... contact area as function of the normalized contact pressure is based on slip-line analysis and hence on the assumption of rigid-ideally plastic material behavior. In the present work, a general finite element model is established to, firstly, reproduce the original model under the assumption of rigid...

  11. SDOF models for reinforced concrete beams under impulsive loads accounting for strain rate effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stochino, F., E-mail: fstochino@unica.it [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Architecture, University of Cagliari, Via Marengo 2, 09123 Cagliari (Italy); Carta, G., E-mail: giorgio_carta@unica.it [Department of Mechanical, Chemical and Materials Engineering, University of Cagliari, Via Marengo 2, 09123 Cagliari (Italy)

    2014-09-15

    Highlights: • Flexural failure of reinforced concrete beams under blast and impact loads is studied. • Two single degree of freedom models are formulated to predict the beam response. • Strain rate effects are taken into account for both models. • The theoretical response obtained from each model is compared with experimental data. • The two models give a good estimation of the maximum deflection at collapse. - Abstract: In this paper, reinforced concrete beams subjected to blast and impact loads are examined. Two single degree of freedom models are proposed to predict the response of the beam. The first model (denoted as “energy model”) is developed from the law of energy balance and assumes that the deformed shape of the beam is represented by its first vibration mode. In the second model (named “dynamic model”), the dynamic behavior of the beam is simulated by a spring-mass oscillator. In both formulations, the strain rate dependencies of the constitutive properties of the beams are considered by varying the parameters of the models at each time step of the computation according to the values of the strain rates of the materials (i.e. concrete and reinforcing steels). The efficiency of each model is evaluated by comparing the theoretical results with experimental data found in literature. The comparison shows that the energy model gives a good estimation of the maximum deflection of the beam at collapse, defined as the attainment of the ultimate strain in concrete. On the other hand, the dynamic model generally provides a smaller value of the maximum displacement. However, both approaches yield reliable results, even though they are based on some approximations. Being also very simple to implement, they may serve as an useful tool in practical applications.

  12. Research on dynamic creep strain and settlement prediction under the subway vibration loading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Junhui; Miao, Linchang

    2016-01-01

    This research aims to explore the dynamic characteristics and settlement prediction of soft soil. Accordingly, the dynamic shear modulus formula considering the vibration frequency was utilized and the dynamic triaxial test conducted to verify the validity of the formula. Subsequently, the formula was applied to the dynamic creep strain function, with the factors influencing the improved dynamic creep strain curve of soft soil being analyzed. Meanwhile, the variation law of dynamic stress with sampling depth was obtained through the finite element simulation of subway foundation. Furthermore, the improved dynamic creep strain curve of soil layer was determined based on the dynamic stress. Thereafter, it could to estimate the long-term settlement under subway vibration loading by norms. The results revealed that the dynamic shear modulus formula is straightforward and practical in terms of its application to the vibration frequency. The values predicted using the improved dynamic creep strain formula closed to the experimental values, whilst the estimating settlement closed to the measured values obtained in the field test.

  13. The importance of the strain rate and creep on the stress corrosion cracking mechanisms and models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aly, Omar F.; Mattar Neto, Miguel; Schvartzman, Monica M.A.M.

    2011-01-01

    Stress corrosion cracking is a nuclear, power, petrochemical, and other industries equipment and components (like pressure vessels, nozzles, tubes, accessories) life degradation mode, involving fragile fracture. The stress corrosion cracking failures can produce serious accidents, and incidents which can put on risk the safety, reliability, and efficiency of many plants. These failures are of very complex prediction. The stress corrosion cracking mechanisms are based on three kinds of factors: microstructural, mechanical and environmental. Concerning the mechanical factors, various authors prefer to consider the crack tip strain rate rather than stress, as a decisive factor which contributes to the process: this parameter is directly influenced by the creep strain rate of the material. Based on two KAPL-Knolls Atomic Power Laboratory experimental studies in SSRT (slow strain rate test) and CL (constant load) test, for prediction of primary water stress corrosion cracking in nickel based alloys, it has done a data compilation of the film rupture mechanism parameters, for modeling PWSCC of Alloy 600 and discussed the importance of the strain rate and the creep on the stress corrosion cracking mechanisms and models. As derived from this study, a simple theoretical model is proposed, and it is showed that the crack growth rate estimated with Brazilian tests results with Alloy 600 in SSRT, are according with the KAPL ones and other published literature. (author)

  14. Probabilistic predictive modelling of carbon nanocomposites for medical implants design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chua, Matthew; Chui, Chee-Kong

    2015-04-01

    Modelling of the mechanical properties of carbon nanocomposites based on input variables like percentage weight of Carbon Nanotubes (CNT) inclusions is important for the design of medical implants and other structural scaffolds. Current constitutive models for the mechanical properties of nanocomposites may not predict well due to differences in conditions, fabrication techniques and inconsistencies in reagents properties used across industries and laboratories. Furthermore, the mechanical properties of the designed products are not deterministic, but exist as a probabilistic range. A predictive model based on a modified probabilistic surface response algorithm is proposed in this paper to address this issue. Tensile testing of three groups of different CNT weight fractions of carbon nanocomposite samples displays scattered stress-strain curves, with the instantaneous stresses assumed to vary according to a normal distribution at a specific strain. From the probabilistic density function of the experimental data, a two factors Central Composite Design (CCD) experimental matrix based on strain and CNT weight fraction input with their corresponding stress distribution was established. Monte Carlo simulation was carried out on this design matrix to generate a predictive probabilistic polynomial equation. The equation and method was subsequently validated with more tensile experiments and Finite Element (FE) studies. The method was subsequently demonstrated in the design of an artificial tracheal implant. Our algorithm provides an effective way to accurately model the mechanical properties in implants of various compositions based on experimental data of samples. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Constitutive modelling of stainless steels for cryogenic applications. Strain induced martensitic transformation

    CERN Document Server

    Garion, C

    2001-01-01

    The 300-series stainless steels are metastable austenitic alloys: martensitic transformation occurs at low temperatures and/or when plastic strain fields develop in the structures. The transformation influences the mechanical properties of the material. The present note aims at proposing a set of constitutive equations describing the plastic strain induced martensitic transformation in the stainless steels at cryogenic temperatures. The constitutive modelling shall create a bridge between the material sciences and the structural analysis. For the structures developing and accumulating plastic deformations at sub-zero temperatures, it is of primary importance to be able to predict the intensity of martensitic transformation and its effect on the material properties. In particular, the constitutive model has been applied to predict the behaviour of the components of the LHC interconnections, the so-called bellows expansion joints (the LHC mechanical compensation system).

  16. Strain gradient plasticity-based modeling of hydrogen environment assisted cracking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martínez Pañeda, Emilio; Niordson, Christian Frithiof; P. Gangloff, Richard

    2016-01-01

    Finite element analysis of stress about a blunt crack tip, emphasizing finite strain and phenomenologicaland mechanism-based strain gradient plasticity (SGP) formulations, is integrated with electrochemical assessment of occluded-crack tip hydrogen (H) solubility and two H-decohesion models...... to predict hydrogen environment assisted crack growth properties. SGP elevates crack tip geometrically necessary dislocation density and flow stress, with enhancement declining with increasing alloy strength. Elevated hydrostatic stress promotes high-trapped H concentration for crack tip damage......; it is imperative to account for SGP in H cracking models. Predictions of the threshold stress intensity factor and H-diffusion limited Stage II crack growth rate agree with experimental data for a high strength austenitic Ni-Cusuperalloy (Monel®K-500) and two modern ultra-high strength martensitic steels (Aer...

  17. On the evolution and modelling of lattice strains during the cyclic loading of TWIP steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saleh, Ahmed A.; Pereloma, Elena V.; Clausen, Bjørn; Brown, Donald W.; Tomé, Carlos N.; Gazder, Azdiar A.

    2013-01-01

    The evolution of lattice strains in fully annealed Fe–24Mn–3Al–2Si–1Ni–0.06C twinning-induced plasticity (TWIP) steel is investigated via in situ neutron diffraction during cyclic (tension–compression) loading between strain limits of ±1%. The pronounced Bauschinger effect observed upon load reversal is accounted for by a combination of the intergranular residual stresses and the intragranular sources of back stress, such as dislocation pile-ups at the intersection of stacking faults. The recently modified elasto-plastic self-consistent (EPSC) model which empirically accounts for both intergranular and intragranular back stresses has been successfully used to simulate the macroscopic stress–strain response and the evolution of the lattice strains. The EPSC model captures the experimentally observed tension–compression asymmetry as it accounts for the directionality of twinning as well as Schmid factor considerations. For the strain limits used in this study, the EPSC model also predicts that the lower flow stress on reverse shear loading reported in earlier Bauschinger-type experiments on TWIP steel is a geometrical or loading path effect

  18. Model Prediction Control For Water Management Using Adaptive Prediction Accuracy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tian, X.; Negenborn, R.R.; Van Overloop, P.J.A.T.M.; Mostert, E.

    2014-01-01

    In the field of operational water management, Model Predictive Control (MPC) has gained popularity owing to its versatility and flexibility. The MPC controller, which takes predictions, time delay and uncertainties into account, can be designed for multi-objective management problems and for

  19. Micro-Structural Evolution and Size-Effects in Plastically Deformed Single Crystals: Strain Gradient Continuum Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    El-Naaman, Salim Abdallah

    the macroscopic effects related to strain gradients, most predict smooth micro-structures. The evolution of dislocation micro-structures, during plastic straining of ductile crystalline materials, is highly complex and nonuniform. Published experimental measurements on deformed metal crystals show distinct......An extensive amount of research has been devoted to the development of micro-mechanics based gradient plasticity continuum theories, which are necessary for modeling micron-scale plasticity when large spatial gradients of plastic strain appear. While many models have proven successful in capturing...... strain. It is clear that many challenges are associated with modeling dislocation structures, within a framework based on continuum fields, however, since the strain gradient effects are attributed to the dislocation micro-structure, it is a natural step, in the further development of gradient theories...

  20. Finite element modelling of fibre Bragg grating strain sensors and experimental validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malik, Shoaib A.; Mahendran, Ramani S.; Harris, Dee; Paget, Mark; Pandita, Surya D.; Machavaram, Venkata R.; Collins, David; Burns, Jonathan M.; Wang, Liwei; Fernando, Gerard F.

    2009-03-01

    Fibre Bragg grating (FBG) sensors continue to be used extensively for monitoring strain and temperature in and on engineering materials and structures. Previous researchers have also developed analytical models to predict the loadtransfer characteristics of FBG sensors as a function of applied strain. The general properties of the coating or adhesive that is used to surface-bond the FBG sensor to the substrate has also been modelled using finite element analysis. In this current paper, a technique was developed to surface-mount FBG sensors with a known volume and thickness of adhesive. The substrates used were aluminium dog-bone tensile test specimens. The FBG sensors were tensile tested in a series of ramp-hold sequences until failure. The reflected FBG spectra were recorded using a commercial instrument. Finite element analysis was performed to model the response of the surface-mounted FBG sensors. In the first instance, the effect of the mechanical properties of the adhesive and substrate were modelled. This was followed by modelling the volume of adhesive used to bond the FBG sensor to the substrate. Finally, the predicted values obtained via finite element modelling were correlated to the experimental results. In addition to the FBG sensors, the tensile test specimens were instrumented with surface-mounted electrical resistance strain gauges.

  1. Iowa calibration of MEPDG performance prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    This study aims to improve the accuracy of AASHTO Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) pavement : performance predictions for Iowa pavement systems through local calibration of MEPDG prediction models. A total of 130 : representative p...

  2. Size effects and strain localization in atomic-scale cleavage modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elsner, B A M; Müller, S

    2015-01-01

    In this work, we study the adhesion and decohesion of Cu(1 0 0) surfaces using density functional theory (DFT) calculations. An upper stress to surface decohesion is obtained via the universal binding energy relation (UBER), but the model is limited to rigid separation of bulk-terminated surfaces. When structural relaxations are included, an unphysical size effect arises if decohesion is considered to occur as soon as the strain energy equals the energy of the newly formed surfaces. We employ the nudged elastic band (NEB) method to show that this size effect is opposed by a size-dependency of the energy barriers involved in the transition. Further, we find that the transition occurs via a localization of bond strain in the vicinity of the cleavage plane, which resembles the strain localization at the tip of a sharp crack that is predicted by linear elastic fracture mechanics. (paper)

  3. Model complexity control for hydrologic prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoups, G.; Van de Giesen, N.C.; Savenije, H.H.G.

    2008-01-01

    A common concern in hydrologic modeling is overparameterization of complex models given limited and noisy data. This leads to problems of parameter nonuniqueness and equifinality, which may negatively affect prediction uncertainties. A systematic way of controlling model complexity is therefore

  4. Strain Rate Dependent Behavior and Modeling for Compression Response of Hybrid Fiber Reinforced Concrete

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.M. Ibrahim

    Full Text Available Abstract This paper investigates the stress-strain characteristics of Hybrid fiber reinforced concrete (HFRC composites under dynamic compression using Split Hopkinson Pressure Bar (SHPB for strain rates in the range of 25 to 125 s-1. Three types of fibers - hooked ended steel fibers, monofilament crimped polypropylene fibers and staple Kevlar fibers were used in the production of HFRC composites. The influence of different fibers in HFRC composites on the failure mode, dynamic increase factor (DIF of strength, toughness and strain are also studied. Degree of fragmentation of HFRC composite specimens increases with increase in the strain rate. Although the use of high percentage of steel fibers leads to the best performance but among the hybrid fiber combinations studied, HFRC composites with relatively higher percentage of steel fibers and smaller percentage of polypropylene and Kevlar fibers seem to reflect the equally good synergistic effects of fibers under dynamic compression. A rate dependent analytical model is proposed for predicting complete stress-strain curves of HFRC composites. The model is based on a comprehensive fiber reinforcing index and complements well with the experimental results.

  5. A model for recovery kinetics of aluminum after large strain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yu, Tianbo; Hansen, Niels

    2012-01-01

    A model is suggested to analyze recovery kinetics of heavily deformed aluminum. The model is based on the hardness of isothermal annealed samples before recrystallization takes place, and it can be extrapolated to longer annealing times to factor out the recrystallization component of the hardness...... for conditions where recovery and recrystallization overlap. The model is applied to the isothermal recovery at temperatures between 140 and 220°C of commercial purity aluminum deformed to true strain 5.5. EBSD measurements have been carried out to detect the onset of discontinuous recrystallization. Furthermore...

  6. Two Strain Dengue Model with Temporary Cross Immunity and Seasonality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aguiar, Maira; Ballesteros, Sebastien; Stollenwerk, Nico

    2010-01-01

    Models on dengue fever epidemiology have previously shown critical fluctuations with power law distributions and also deterministic chaos in some parameter regions due to the multi-strain structure of the disease pathogen. In our first model including well known biological features, we found a rich dynamical structure including limit cycles, symmetry breaking bifurcations, torus bifurcations, coexisting attractors including isola solutions and deterministic chaos (as indicated by positive Lyapunov exponents) in a much larger parameter region, which is also biologically more plausible than the previous results of other researches. Based on these findings we will investigate the model structures further including seasonality.

  7. Buckling induced by cyclic straining: Analysis of simple models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Devos, J.; Gontier, C.; Hoffmann, A.

    1983-01-01

    Progressive buckling of a structure may occur under imposed loads below the critical value in cases where progressive distortion due to cyclic straining is possible. This interaction between ratchetting and buckling is usually not taken into account in design rules, such as the ASME rules. This paper presents the complete analysis of two simple cases and gives rules established on this basis. The first model is a modified version of SHANLEY's two bars; it is submitted to a constant axial compressive force F and a variable thermal stress Q. It simulates a compressed clamped-clamped beam subjected to a variable through-thickness thermal gradient. The second model is a refined version of the first taking into account strain-hardening of the deformable sections. One finds that progressive buckling is possible only if the applied force F is greater than SHANLEY's critical load and tangent moduli of the moment-curvature law, respectively. (orig./GL)

  8. Self-consistent modelling of lattice strains during the in-situ tensile loading of twinning induced plasticity steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saleh, Ahmed A.; Pereloma, Elena V.; Clausen, Bjørn; Brown, Donald W.; Tomé, Carlos N.; Gazder, Azdiar A.

    2014-01-01

    The evolution of lattice strains in a fully recrystallised Fe–24Mn–3Al–2Si–1Ni–0.06C TWinning Induced Plasticity (TWIP) steel subjected to uniaxial tensile loading up to a true strain of ∼35% was investigated via in-situ neutron diffraction. Typical of fcc elastic and plastic anisotropy, the {111} and {200} grain families record the lowest and highest lattice strains, respectively. Using modelling cases with and without latent hardening, the recently extended Elasto-Plastic Self-Consistent model successfully predicted the macroscopic stress–strain response, the evolution of lattice strains and the development of crystallographic texture. Compared to the isotropic hardening case, latent hardening did not have a significant effect on lattice strains and returned a relatively faster development of a stronger 〈111〉 and a weaker 〈100〉 double fibre parallel to the tensile axis. Close correspondence between the experimental lattice strains and those predicted using particular orientations embedded within a random aggregate was obtained. The result suggests that the exact orientations of the surrounding aggregate have a weak influence on the lattice strain evolution

  9. Nonlinear chaotic model for predicting storm surges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Siek

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the use of the methods of nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory for building a predictive chaotic model from time series. The chaotic model predictions are made by the adaptive local models based on the dynamical neighbors found in the reconstructed phase space of the observables. We implemented the univariate and multivariate chaotic models with direct and multi-steps prediction techniques and optimized these models using an exhaustive search method. The built models were tested for predicting storm surge dynamics for different stormy conditions in the North Sea, and are compared to neural network models. The results show that the chaotic models can generally provide reliable and accurate short-term storm surge predictions.

  10. Staying Power of Churn Prediction Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Risselada, Hans; Verhoef, Peter C.; Bijmolt, Tammo H. A.

    In this paper, we study the staying power of various churn prediction models. Staying power is defined as the predictive performance of a model in a number of periods after the estimation period. We examine two methods, logit models and classification trees, both with and without applying a bagging

  11. Predictive user modeling with actionable attributes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zliobaite, I.; Pechenizkiy, M.

    2013-01-01

    Different machine learning techniques have been proposed and used for modeling individual and group user needs, interests and preferences. In the traditional predictive modeling instances are described by observable variables, called attributes. The goal is to learn a model for predicting the target

  12. Normalized Rotational Multiple Yield Surface Framework (NRMYSF) stress-strain curve prediction method based on small strain triaxial test data on undisturbed Auckland residual clay soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noor, M. J. Md; Ibrahim, A.; Rahman, A. S. A.

    2018-04-01

    Small strain triaxial test measurement is considered to be significantly accurate compared to the external strain measurement using conventional method due to systematic errors normally associated with the test. Three submersible miniature linear variable differential transducer (LVDT) mounted on yokes which clamped directly onto the soil sample at equally 120° from the others. The device setup using 0.4 N resolution load cell and 16 bit AD converter was capable of consistently resolving displacement of less than 1µm and measuring axial strains ranging from less than 0.001% to 2.5%. Further analysis of small strain local measurement data was performed using new Normalized Multiple Yield Surface Framework (NRMYSF) method and compared with existing Rotational Multiple Yield Surface Framework (RMYSF) prediction method. The prediction of shear strength based on combined intrinsic curvilinear shear strength envelope using small strain triaxial test data confirmed the significant improvement and reliability of the measurement and analysis methods. Moreover, the NRMYSF method shows an excellent data prediction and significant improvement toward more reliable prediction of soil strength that can reduce the cost and time of experimental laboratory test.

  13. EFFICIENT PREDICTIVE MODELLING FOR ARCHAEOLOGICAL RESEARCH

    OpenAIRE

    Balla, A.; Pavlogeorgatos, G.; Tsiafakis, D.; Pavlidis, G.

    2014-01-01

    The study presents a general methodology for designing, developing and implementing predictive modelling for identifying areas of archaeological interest. The methodology is based on documented archaeological data and geographical factors, geospatial analysis and predictive modelling, and has been applied to the identification of possible Macedonian tombs’ locations in Northern Greece. The model was tested extensively and the results were validated using a commonly used predictive gain, which...

  14. Experimental Study and Modelling of Poly (Methyl Methacrylate) and Polycarbonate Compressive Behavior from Low to High Strain Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Qoubaa, Z.; Colard, L.; Matadi Boumbimba, R.; Rusinek, A.

    2018-03-01

    This paper concerns an experimental investigation of Polycarbonate and Poly (methyl methacrylate) compressive behavior from low to high strain rates. Experiments were conducted from 0.001/s to ≈ 5000/s for PC and from 0.001/s to ≈ 2000/s for PMMA. The true strain-stress behavior is established and analyzed at various stain rates. Both PC and PMMA mechanical behavior appears as known, to be strain rate and temperature dependent. The DSGZ model is selected for modelling the strain-stress curves while the yield stress is reproduced using the cooperative model and a modified Eyring equation based on Eyring first process theory. All the three models predictions are in agreement with experiments performed on PC and PMMA.

  15. Robust predictions of the interacting boson model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casten, R.F.; Koeln Univ.

    1994-01-01

    While most recognized for its symmetries and algebraic structure, the IBA model has other less-well-known but equally intrinsic properties which give unavoidable, parameter-free predictions. These predictions concern central aspects of low-energy nuclear collective structure. This paper outlines these ''robust'' predictions and compares them with the data

  16. Comparison of Prediction-Error-Modelling Criteria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2007-01-01

    Single and multi-step prediction-error-methods based on the maximum likelihood and least squares criteria are compared. The prediction-error methods studied are based on predictions using the Kalman filter and Kalman predictors for a linear discrete-time stochastic state space model, which is a r...

  17. Extracting falsifiable predictions from sloppy models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutenkunst, Ryan N; Casey, Fergal P; Waterfall, Joshua J; Myers, Christopher R; Sethna, James P

    2007-12-01

    Successful predictions are among the most compelling validations of any model. Extracting falsifiable predictions from nonlinear multiparameter models is complicated by the fact that such models are commonly sloppy, possessing sensitivities to different parameter combinations that range over many decades. Here we discuss how sloppiness affects the sorts of data that best constrain model predictions, makes linear uncertainty approximations dangerous, and introduces computational difficulties in Monte-Carlo uncertainty analysis. We also present a useful test problem and suggest refinements to the standards by which models are communicated.

  18. The prediction of epidemics through mathematical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaus, Catherine

    2014-01-01

    Mathematical models may be resorted to in an endeavor to predict the development of epidemics. The SIR model is one of the applications. Still too approximate, the use of statistics awaits more data in order to come closer to reality.

  19. Calibration of PMIS pavement performance prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-01

    Improve the accuracy of TxDOTs existing pavement performance prediction models through calibrating these models using actual field data obtained from the Pavement Management Information System (PMIS). : Ensure logical performance superiority patte...

  20. Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty of Hyporheic Exchange Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, R.; Bennett, J.; Dugge, J.; Wöhling, T.; Nowak, W.

    2017-12-01

    Hyporheic exchange is the interaction of water between rivers and groundwater, and is difficult to predict. One of the largest contributions to predictive uncertainty for hyporheic fluxes have been attributed to the representation of heterogeneous subsurface properties. This research aims to evaluate which aspect of the subsurface representation - the spatial distribution of hydrofacies or the model for local-scale (within-facies) heterogeneity - most influences the predictive uncertainty. Also, we seek to identify data types that help reduce this uncertainty best. For this investigation, we conduct a modelling study of the Steinlach River meander, in Southwest Germany. The Steinlach River meander is an experimental site established in 2010 to monitor hyporheic exchange at the meander scale. We use HydroGeoSphere, a fully integrated surface water-groundwater model, to model hyporheic exchange and to assess the predictive uncertainty of hyporheic exchange transit times (HETT). A highly parameterized complex model is built and treated as `virtual reality', which is in turn modelled with simpler subsurface parameterization schemes (Figure). Then, we conduct Monte-Carlo simulations with these models to estimate the predictive uncertainty. Results indicate that: Uncertainty in HETT is relatively small for early times and increases with transit times. Uncertainty from local-scale heterogeneity is negligible compared to uncertainty in the hydrofacies distribution. Introducing more data to a poor model structure may reduce predictive variance, but does not reduce predictive bias. Hydraulic head observations alone cannot constrain the uncertainty of HETT, however an estimate of hyporheic exchange flux proves to be more effective at reducing this uncertainty. Figure: Approach for evaluating predictive model uncertainty. A conceptual model is first developed from the field investigations. A complex model (`virtual reality') is then developed based on that conceptual model

  1. Transferable tight binding model for strained group IV and III-V heterostructures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Yaohua; Povolotskyi, Micheal; Kubis, Tillmann; Boykin, Timothy; Klimeck, Gerhard

    Modern semiconductor devices have reached critical device dimensions in the range of several nanometers. For reliable prediction of device performance, it is critical to have a numerical efficient model that are transferable to material interfaces. In this work, we present an empirical tight binding (ETB) model with transferable parameters for strained IV and III-V group semiconductors. The ETB model is numerically highly efficient as it make use of an orthogonal sp3d5s* basis set with nearest neighbor inter-atomic interactions. The ETB parameters are generated from HSE06 hybrid functional calculations. Band structures of strained group IV and III-V materials by ETB model are in good agreement with corresponding HSE06 calculations. Furthermore, the ETB model is applied to strained superlattices which consist of group IV and III-V elements. The ETB model turns out to be transferable to nano-scale hetero-structure. The ETB band structures agree with the corresponding HSE06 results in the whole Brillouin zone. The ETB band gaps of superlattices with common cations or common anions have discrepancies within 0.05eV.

  2. On the prediction of ductile fracture by void coalescence and strain localization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Tuo; Gao, Xiaosheng

    2018-04-01

    This paper presents a unit cell model based on the observation that ductile fracture occurs when plastic flow is localized in a band. The unit cell consists of three void containing material units stacked in the direction normal to the localization plane. Localization takes place in the middle material unit while the two outer units undergo elastic recovery after failure occurs. Thus a failure criterion is established as when the macroscopic effective strain of the outer material units reaches the maximum value. Analyses are conducted to demonstrate the effect of the voids existing outside the localization band. Comparisons of the present model with several previous models suggest that the present model is not only easy to implement in finite element analysis but also more suitable to robustly determine the failure strain. A series of unit cell analyses are conducted for various macroscopic stress triaxialities and Lode parameters. The analysis results confirm that for a fixed Lode parameter, the failure strain decreases exponentially with the stress triaxiality and for a given stress triaxiality, it increases as the stress state approaches the generalized tension and generalized compression. The analysis results also reveal the effect of the stress state on the deformed void shape within and near the localization band.

  3. Case studies in archaeological predictive modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhagen, Jacobus Wilhelmus Hermanus Philippus

    2007-01-01

    In this thesis, a collection of papers is put together dealing with various quantitative aspects of predictive modelling and archaeological prospection. Among the issues covered are the effects of survey bias on the archaeological data used for predictive modelling, and the complexities of testing

  4. Clinical Prediction Models for Cardiovascular Disease: Tufts Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness Clinical Prediction Model Database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wessler, Benjamin S; Lai Yh, Lana; Kramer, Whitney; Cangelosi, Michael; Raman, Gowri; Lutz, Jennifer S; Kent, David M

    2015-07-01

    Clinical prediction models (CPMs) estimate the probability of clinical outcomes and hold the potential to improve decision making and individualize care. For patients with cardiovascular disease, there are numerous CPMs available although the extent of this literature is not well described. We conducted a systematic review for articles containing CPMs for cardiovascular disease published between January 1990 and May 2012. Cardiovascular disease includes coronary heart disease, heart failure, arrhythmias, stroke, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral vascular disease. We created a novel database and characterized CPMs based on the stage of development, population under study, performance, covariates, and predicted outcomes. There are 796 models included in this database. The number of CPMs published each year is increasing steadily over time. Seven hundred seventeen (90%) are de novo CPMs, 21 (3%) are CPM recalibrations, and 58 (7%) are CPM adaptations. This database contains CPMs for 31 index conditions, including 215 CPMs for patients with coronary artery disease, 168 CPMs for population samples, and 79 models for patients with heart failure. There are 77 distinct index/outcome pairings. Of the de novo models in this database, 450 (63%) report a c-statistic and 259 (36%) report some information on calibration. There is an abundance of CPMs available for a wide assortment of cardiovascular disease conditions, with substantial redundancy in the literature. The comparative performance of these models, the consistency of effects and risk estimates across models and the actual and potential clinical impact of this body of literature is poorly understood. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  5. Cyclic stress-strain behaviour under thermomechanical fatigue conditions - Modeling by means of an enhanced multi-component model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christ, H J [Institut fuer Werkstofftechnik, Universitaet Siegen, D-57068 Siegen (Germany); Bauer, V, E-mail: hans-juergen.christ@uni-siegen.d [Wieland Werke AG, Graf-Arco Str. 36, D-89072 Ulm (Germany)

    2010-07-01

    The cyclic stress-strain behaviour of metals and alloys in cyclic saturation can reasonably be described by means of simple multi-component models, such as the model based on a parallel arrangement of elastic-perfectly plastic elements, which was originally proposed by Masing already in 1923. This model concept was applied to thermomechanical fatigue loading of two metallic engineering materials which were found to be rather oppositional with respect to cyclic plastic deformation. One material is an austenitic stainless steel of type AISI304L which shows dynamic strain aging (DSA) and serves as an example for a rather ductile alloy. A dislocation arrangement was found after TMF testing deviating characteristically from the corresponding isothermal microstructures. The second material is a third-generation near-gamma TiAl alloy which is characterized by a very pronounced ductile-to-brittle transition (DBT) within the temperature range of TMF cycling. Isothermal fatigue testing at temperatures below the DBT temperature leads to cyclic hardening, while cyclic softening was found to occur above DBT. The combined effect under TMF leads to a continuously developing mean stress. The experimental observations regarding isothermal and non-isothermal stress-strain behaviour and the correlation to the underlying microstructural processes was used to further develop the TMF multi-composite model in order to accurately predict the TMF stress-strain response by taking the alloy-specific features into account.

  6. A model of nonlinear strain and damage accumulation in polymer composites

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. N. Ruslantsev

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a model to predict a nonlinear strain of the carbon laminate; the model is based on the relations between the theory of laminated plates and the non-linear approximation of deformation curve of unidirectional layer at the shear in the layer plane. The explicit expressions of stiffness and compliance matrices were obtained via multiplying the matrices that correspond to the elastic characteristics by the matrices, considering the non-linear properties of the laminate. The paper suggests an approximation option for the non-linear properties of the layer at the shear using an exponential function. Some considerations on damage accumulation in carbon laminates were made.

  7. On modeling micro-structural evolution using a higher order strain gradient continuum theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    El-Naaman, S. A.; Nielsen, K. L.; Niordson, C. F.

    2016-01-01

    is to improve the micro-structural response predicted using strain gradient crystal plasticity within a continuum mechanics framework. One approach to modeling the dislocation structures observed is through a back stress formulation, which can be related directly to the strain gradient energy. The present work...... the experimentally observed micro-structural behavior, within a framework based on continuous field quantities, poses obvious challenges, since the evolution of dislocation structures is inherently a discrete and discontinuous process. This challenge, in particular, motivates the present study, and the aim...... offers an investigation of constitutive equations for the back stress based on both considerations of the gradient energy, but also includes results obtained from a purely phenomenological starting point. The influence of model parameters is brought out in a parametric study, and it is demonstrated how...

  8. Strain Rate Dependant Material Model for Orthotropic Metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vignjevic, Rade

    2016-01-01

    In manufacturing processes anisotropic metals are often exposed to the loading with high strain rates in the range from 10"2 s"-"1 to 10"6 s"-"1 (e.g. stamping, cold spraying and explosive forming). These types of loading often involve generation and propagation of shock waves within the material. The material behaviour under such a complex loading needs to be accurately modelled, in order to optimise the manufacturing process and achieve appropriate properties of the manufactured component. The presented research is related to development and validation of a thermodynamically consistent physically based constitutive model for metals under high rate loading. The model is capable of modelling damage, failure and formation and propagation of shock waves in anisotropic metals. The model has two main parts: the strength part which defines the material response to shear deformation and an equation of state (EOS) which defines the material response to isotropic volumetric deformation [1]. The constitutive model was implemented into the transient nonlinear finite element code DYNA3D [2] and our in house SPH code. Limited model validation was performed by simulating a number of high velocity material characterisation and validation impact tests. The new damage model was developed in the framework of configurational continuum mechanics and irreversible thermodynamics with internal state variables. The use of the multiplicative decomposition of deformation gradient makes the model applicable to arbitrary plastic and damage deformations. To account for the physical mechanisms of failure, the concept of thermally activated damage initially proposed by Tuller and Bucher [3], Klepaczko [4] was adopted as the basis for the new damage evolution model. This makes the proposed damage/failure model compatible with the Mechanical Threshold Strength (MTS) model Follansbee and Kocks [5], 1988; Chen and Gray [6] which was used to control evolution of flow stress during plastic

  9. Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beale, Colin M; Lennon, Jack J

    2012-01-19

    Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

  10. Model Predictive Control for Smart Energy Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halvgaard, Rasmus

    pumps, heat tanks, electrical vehicle battery charging/discharging, wind farms, power plants). 2.Embed forecasting methodologies for the weather (e.g. temperature, solar radiation), the electricity consumption, and the electricity price in a predictive control system. 3.Develop optimization algorithms....... Chapter 3 introduces Model Predictive Control (MPC) including state estimation, filtering and prediction for linear models. Chapter 4 simulates the models from Chapter 2 with the certainty equivalent MPC from Chapter 3. An economic MPC minimizes the costs of consumption based on real electricity prices...... that determined the flexibility of the units. A predictive control system easily handles constraints, e.g. limitations in power consumption, and predicts the future behavior of a unit by integrating predictions of electricity prices, consumption, and weather variables. The simulations demonstrate the expected...

  11. Evaluating the Predictive Value of Growth Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Daniel L.; Gaertner, Matthew N.

    2014-01-01

    This study evaluates four growth prediction models--projection, student growth percentile, trajectory, and transition table--commonly used to forecast (and give schools credit for) middle school students' future proficiency. Analyses focused on vertically scaled summative mathematics assessments, and two performance standards conditions (high…

  12. Model predictive control classical, robust and stochastic

    CERN Document Server

    Kouvaritakis, Basil

    2016-01-01

    For the first time, a textbook that brings together classical predictive control with treatment of up-to-date robust and stochastic techniques. Model Predictive Control describes the development of tractable algorithms for uncertain, stochastic, constrained systems. The starting point is classical predictive control and the appropriate formulation of performance objectives and constraints to provide guarantees of closed-loop stability and performance. Moving on to robust predictive control, the text explains how similar guarantees may be obtained for cases in which the model describing the system dynamics is subject to additive disturbances and parametric uncertainties. Open- and closed-loop optimization are considered and the state of the art in computationally tractable methods based on uncertainty tubes presented for systems with additive model uncertainty. Finally, the tube framework is also applied to model predictive control problems involving hard or probabilistic constraints for the cases of multiplic...

  13. Modeling, robust and distributed model predictive control for freeway networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, S.

    2016-01-01

    In Model Predictive Control (MPC) for traffic networks, traffic models are crucial since they are used as prediction models for determining the optimal control actions. In order to reduce the computational complexity of MPC for traffic networks, macroscopic traffic models are often used instead of

  14. Deep Predictive Models in Interactive Music

    OpenAIRE

    Martin, Charles P.; Ellefsen, Kai Olav; Torresen, Jim

    2018-01-01

    Automatic music generation is a compelling task where much recent progress has been made with deep learning models. In this paper, we ask how these models can be integrated into interactive music systems; how can they encourage or enhance the music making of human users? Musical performance requires prediction to operate instruments, and perform in groups. We argue that predictive models could help interactive systems to understand their temporal context, and ensemble behaviour. Deep learning...

  15. Finite element prediction of the swift effect based on Taylor-type polycrystal plasticity models

    OpenAIRE

    Duchene, Laurent; Delannay, L.; Habraken, Anne

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes the main concepts of the stress-strain interpolation model that has been implemented in the non-linear finite element code Lagamine. This model consists in a local description of the yield locus based on the texture of the material through the full constraints Taylor’s model. The prediction of the Swift effect is investigated: the influence of the texture evolution is shown up. The LAMEL model is also investigated for the Swift effect prediction. Peer reviewed

  16. Modeling the growth dynamics of multiple Escherichia coli strains in the pig intestine following intramuscular ampicillin treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, Amais; Zachariasen, Camilla; Christiansen, Lasse Engbo; Græsbøll, Kaare; Toft, Nils; Matthews, Louise; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose; Olsen, John Elmerdahl

    2016-09-06

    This study evaluated how dosing regimen for intramuscularly-administered ampicillin, composition of Escherichia coli strains with regard to ampicillin susceptibility, and excretion of bacteria from the intestine affected the level of resistance among Escherichia coli strains in the intestine of nursery pigs. It also examined the dynamics of the composition of bacterial strains during and after the treatment. The growth responses of strains to ampicillin concentrations were determined using in vitro growth curves. Using these results as input data, growth predictions were generated using a mathematical model to simulate the competitive growth of E. coli strains in a pig intestine under specified plasma concentration profiles of ampicillin. In vitro growth results demonstrated that the resistant strains did not carry a fitness cost for their resistance, and that the most susceptible strains were more affected by increasing concentrations of antibiotics that the rest of the strains. The modeling revealed that short treatment duration resulted in lower levels of resistance and that dosing frequency did not substantially influence the growth of resistant strains. Resistance levels were found to be sensitive to the number of competing strains, and this effect was enhanced by longer duration of treatment. High excretion of bacteria from the intestine favored resistant strains over sensitive strains, but at the same time it resulted in a faster return to pre-treatment levels after the treatment ended. When the duration of high excretion was set to be limited to the treatment time (i.e. the treatment was assumed to result in a cure of diarrhea) resistant strains required longer time to reach the previous level. No fitness cost was found to be associated with ampicillin resistance in E. coli. Besides dosing factors, epidemiological factors (such as number of competing strains and bacterial excretion) influenced resistance development and need to be considered further in

  17. Complete Genome Sequence of the Methanococcus maripaludis Type Strain JJ (DSM 2067), a Model for Selenoprotein Synthesis in Archaea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poehlein, Anja; Heym, Daniel; Quitzke, Vivien; Fersch, Julia; Daniel, Rolf; Rother, Michael

    2018-04-05

    Methanococcus maripaludis type strain JJ (DSM 2067) is an important organism because it serves as a model for primary energy metabolism and hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis and is amenable to genetic manipulation. The complete genome (1.7 Mb) harbors 1,815 predicted protein-encoding genes, including 9 encoding selenoproteins. Copyright © 2018 Poehlein et al.

  18. Modeling of tamped and decoupled explosions in salt (simulation is easy. Prediction is difficult exclamation point)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldstein, P.; Glenn, L.A.

    1993-01-01

    We compare predictions of the strain hardening model of Glenn (1990), with and without damage, to free field and seismic observations of SALMON, STERLING, and 64 kt (tamped) and 8 kt (decoupled) explosions in an Azgir salt dome in the former Soviet Union (FSU). We find good agreement between the model (without damage) and observations of both SALMON and STERLING. In contrast, the average spectral ratio of the tamped to decoupled Azgir explosions is systematically smaller than predicted by the strain hardening model without damage. Much better agreement is obtained when damage is included in the model of the decoupled Azgir explosion

  19. Modeling of tamped and decoupled explosions in salt (Simulation is easy. Prediction is difficult exclamation point)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldstein, P.; Glenn, L.A.

    1993-05-01

    We compare predictions of the strain hardening model of Glenn (1990), with and without damage, to free field and seismic observations of SALMON, STERLING, and 64 kt (tamped) and 8 kt (decoupled) explosions in an Azgir salt dome in the former Soviet Union (FSU). We find good agreement between the model (without damage) and observations of both SALMON and STERLING. In contrast, the average spectral ratio of the tamped to decoupled Azgir explosions is systematically smaller than predicted by the strain hardening model without damage. Much better agreement is obtained when damage is included in the model of the decoupled Azgir explosion

  20. Hollow Cylinder Tests on Boom Clay: Modelling of Strain Localization in the Anisotropic Excavation Damaged Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    François, Bertrand; Labiouse, Vincent; Dizier, Arnaud; Marinelli, Ferdinando; Charlier, Robert; Collin, Frédéric

    2014-01-01

    Boom Clay is extensively studied as a potential candidate to host underground nuclear waste disposal in Belgium. To guarantee the safety of such a disposal, the mechanical behaviour of the clay during gallery excavation must be properly predicted. In that purpose, a hollow cylinder experiment on Boom Clay has been designed to reproduce, in a small-scale test, the Excavation Damaged Zone (EDZ) as experienced during the excavation of a disposal gallery in the underground. In this article, the focus is made on the hydro-mechanical constitutive interpretation of the displacement (experimentally obtained by medium resolution X-ray tomography scanning). The coupled hydro-mechanical response of Boom Clay in this experiment is addressed through finite element computations with a constitutive model including strain hardening/softening, elastic and plastic cross-anisotropy and a regularization method for the modelling of strain localization processes. The obtained results evidence the directional dependency of the mechanical response of the clay. The softening behaviour induces transient strain localization processes, addressed through a hydro-mechanical second grade model. The shape of the obtained damaged zone is clearly affected by the anisotropy of the materials, evidencing an eye-shaped EDZ. The modelling results agree with experiments not only qualitatively (in terms of the shape of the induced damaged zone), but also quantitatively (for the obtained displacement in three particular radial directions).

  1. Two-dimensional threshold voltage analytical model of DMG strained-silicon-on-insulator MOSFETs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Jin; Liu Hongxia; Li Bin; Cao Lei; Yuan Bo

    2010-01-01

    For the first time, a simple and accurate two-dimensional analytical model for the surface potential variation along the channel in fully depleted dual-material gate strained-Si-on-insulator (DMG SSOI) MOSFETs is developed. We investigate the improved short channel effect (SCE), hot carrier effect (HCE), drain-induced barrier-lowering (DIBL) and carrier transport efficiency for the novel structure MOSFET. The analytical model takes into account the effects of different metal gate lengths, work functions, the drain bias and Ge mole fraction in the relaxed SiGe buffer. The surface potential in the channel region exhibits a step potential, which can suppress SCE, HCE and DIBL. Also, strained-Si and SOI structure can improve the carrier transport efficiency, with strained-Si being particularly effective. Further, the threshold voltage model correctly predicts a 'rollup' in threshold voltage with decreasing channel length ratios or Ge mole fraction in the relaxed SiGe buffer. The validity of the two-dimensional analytical model is verified using numerical simulations. (semiconductor devices)

  2. Multi-scale Modeling of the Impact Response of a Strain Rate Sensitive High-Manganese Austenitic Steel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orkun eÖnal

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available A multi-scale modeling approach was applied to predict the impact response of a strain rate sensitive high-manganese austenitic steel. The roles of texture, geometry and strain rate sensitivity were successfully taken into account all at once by coupling crystal plasticity and finite element (FE analysis. Specifically, crystal plasticity was utilized to obtain the multi-axial flow rule at different strain rates based on the experimental deformation response under uniaxial tensile loading. The equivalent stress – equivalent strain response was then incorporated into the FE model for the sake of a more representative hardening rule under impact loading. The current results demonstrate that reliable predictions can be obtained by proper coupling of crystal plasticity and FE analysis even if the experimental flow rule of the material is acquired under uniaxial loading and at moderate strain rates that are significantly slower than those attained during impact loading. Furthermore, the current findings also demonstrate the need for an experiment-based multi-scale modeling approach for the sake of reliable predictions of the impact response.

  3. Unreachable Setpoints in Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rawlings, James B.; Bonné, Dennis; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2008-01-01

    In this work, a new model predictive controller is developed that handles unreachable setpoints better than traditional model predictive control methods. The new controller induces an interesting fast/slow asymmetry in the tracking response of the system. Nominal asymptotic stability of the optimal...... steady state is established for terminal constraint model predictive control (MPC). The region of attraction is the steerable set. Existing analysis methods for closed-loop properties of MPC are not applicable to this new formulation, and a new analysis method is developed. It is shown how to extend...

  4. Bayesian Predictive Models for Rayleigh Wind Speed

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shahirinia, Amir; Hajizadeh, Amin; Yu, David C

    2017-01-01

    predictive model of the wind speed aggregates the non-homogeneous distributions into a single continuous distribution. Therefore, the result is able to capture the variation among the probability distributions of the wind speeds at the turbines’ locations in a wind farm. More specifically, instead of using...... a wind speed distribution whose parameters are known or estimated, the parameters are considered as random whose variations are according to probability distributions. The Bayesian predictive model for a Rayleigh which only has a single model scale parameter has been proposed. Also closed-form posterior...... and predictive inferences under different reasonable choices of prior distribution in sensitivity analysis have been presented....

  5. Predictive Modelling and Time: An Experiment in Temporal Archaeological Predictive Models

    OpenAIRE

    David Ebert

    2006-01-01

    One of the most common criticisms of archaeological predictive modelling is that it fails to account for temporal or functional differences in sites. However, a practical solution to temporal or functional predictive modelling has proven to be elusive. This article discusses temporal predictive modelling, focusing on the difficulties of employing temporal variables, then introduces and tests a simple methodology for the implementation of temporal modelling. The temporal models thus created ar...

  6. Fingerprint verification prediction model in hand dermatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chew K; Chang, Choong C; Johor, Asmah; Othman, Puwira; Baba, Roshidah

    2015-07-01

    Hand dermatitis associated fingerprint changes is a significant problem and affects fingerprint verification processes. This study was done to develop a clinically useful prediction model for fingerprint verification in patients with hand dermatitis. A case-control study involving 100 patients with hand dermatitis. All patients verified their thumbprints against their identity card. Registered fingerprints were randomized into a model derivation and model validation group. Predictive model was derived using multiple logistic regression. Validation was done using the goodness-of-fit test. The fingerprint verification prediction model consists of a major criterion (fingerprint dystrophy area of ≥ 25%) and two minor criteria (long horizontal lines and long vertical lines). The presence of the major criterion predicts it will almost always fail verification, while presence of both minor criteria and presence of one minor criterion predict high and low risk of fingerprint verification failure, respectively. When none of the criteria are met, the fingerprint almost always passes the verification. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.937, and the goodness-of-fit test showed agreement between the observed and expected number (P = 0.26). The derived fingerprint verification failure prediction model is validated and highly discriminatory in predicting risk of fingerprint verification in patients with hand dermatitis. © 2014 The International Society of Dermatology.

  7. Massive Predictive Modeling using Oracle R Enterprise

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2014-01-01

    R is fast becoming the lingua franca for analyzing data via statistics, visualization, and predictive analytics. For enterprise-scale data, R users have three main concerns: scalability, performance, and production deployment. Oracle's R-based technologies - Oracle R Distribution, Oracle R Enterprise, Oracle R Connector for Hadoop, and the R package ROracle - address these concerns. In this talk, we introduce Oracle's R technologies, highlighting how each enables R users to achieve scalability and performance while making production deployment of R results a natural outcome of the data analyst/scientist efforts. The focus then turns to Oracle R Enterprise with code examples using the transparency layer and embedded R execution, targeting massive predictive modeling. One goal behind massive predictive modeling is to build models per entity, such as customers, zip codes, simulations, in an effort to understand behavior and tailor predictions at the entity level. Predictions...

  8. Succinate overproduction: A case study of computational strain design using a comprehensive Escherichia coli kinetic model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali eKhodayari

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Computational strain design prediction accuracy has been the focus for many recent efforts through the selective integration of kinetic information into metabolic models. In general, kinetic model prediction quality is determined by the range and scope of genetic and/or environmental perturbations used during parameterization. In this effort, we apply the k-OptForce procedure on a kinetic model of E. coli core metabolism constructed using the Ensemble Modeling (EM method and parameterized using multiple mutant strains data under aerobic respiration with glucose as the carbon source. Minimal interventions are identified that improve succinate yield under both aerobic and anaerobic conditions to test the fidelity of model predictions under both genetic and environmental perturbations. Under aerobic condition, k-OptForce identifies interventions that match existing experimental strategies pointing at a number of unexplored flux redirections such as routing glyoxylate flux through the glycerate metabolism to improve succinate yield. Many of the identified interventions rely on the kinetic descriptions and would not be discoverable by a purely stoichiometric description. In contrast, under fermentative (anaerobic conditions, k-OptForce fails to identify key interventions including up-regulation of anaplerotic reactions and elimination of competitive fermentative products. This is due to the fact that the pathways activated under anaerobic conditions were not properly parameterized as only aerobic flux data were used in the model construction. This study shed light on the importance of condition-specific model parameterization and provides insight onto how to augment kinetic models so as to correctly respond to multiple environmental perturbations.

  9. Effect of microstructure on strain localization in a 7050 aluminum alloy: Comparison of experiments and modeling for various textures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mello, Alberto W.; Nicolas, Andrea [School of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Purdue University, 701 W. Stadium Ave, West Lafayette, IN 47907-2045 (United States); Lebensohn, Ricardo A. [Materials Science and Technology Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545 (United States); Sangid, Michael D., E-mail: msangid@purdue.edu [School of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Purdue University, 701 W. Stadium Ave, West Lafayette, IN 47907-2045 (United States)

    2016-04-20

    Microstructure attributes are responsible for heterogeneous deformation and strain localization. In this study, the relation between residual strain fields and microstructure is examined and assessed by means of experiments and crystal plasticity modeling. The microstructure of rolled aluminum alloys (AA) in the 7050-T7451 condition was experimentally obtained with electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) analysis along the rolling direction (L-T orientation), across the rolling direction (T-L orientation), and transverse to the rolling direction (T-S orientation). Each of these sections was also patterned using a novel microstamping procedure, to allow for strain mapping by digital image correlation (DIC). The measured microstructures were in turn used as input of an elasto-viscoplastic crystal plasticity formulation based on fast Fourier transforms (EVP-FFT). Comparisons between the strain maps obtained experimentally by the concurrent DIC-EBSD method and the EVP-FFT simulations were made for the three sections, corresponding to the initial textures. The comparisons showed that the predicted levels of strain concentration were reasonable for all three specimens from a statistical perspective, which is important to properly describe and predict the strains within an ensemble of components; however the spatial match with the actual strain fields needs improvement.

  10. Multi-model analysis in hydrological prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanthier, M.; Arsenault, R.; Brissette, F.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrologic modelling, by nature, is a simplification of the real-world hydrologic system. Therefore ensemble hydrological predictions thus obtained do not present the full range of possible streamflow outcomes, thereby producing ensembles which demonstrate errors in variance such as under-dispersion. Past studies show that lumped models used in prediction mode can return satisfactory results, especially when there is not enough information available on the watershed to run a distributed model. But all lumped models greatly simplify the complex processes of the hydrologic cycle. To generate more spread in the hydrologic ensemble predictions, multi-model ensembles have been considered. In this study, the aim is to propose and analyse a method that gives an ensemble streamflow prediction that properly represents the forecast probabilities and reduced ensemble bias. To achieve this, three simple lumped models are used to generate an ensemble. These will also be combined using multi-model averaging techniques, which generally generate a more accurate hydrogram than the best of the individual models in simulation mode. This new predictive combined hydrogram is added to the ensemble, thus creating a large ensemble which may improve the variability while also improving the ensemble mean bias. The quality of the predictions is then assessed on different periods: 2 weeks, 1 month, 3 months and 6 months using a PIT Histogram of the percentiles of the real observation volumes with respect to the volumes of the ensemble members. Initially, the models were run using historical weather data to generate synthetic flows. This worked for individual models, but not for the multi-model and for the large ensemble. Consequently, by performing data assimilation at each prediction period and thus adjusting the initial states of the models, the PIT Histogram could be constructed using the observed flows while allowing the use of the multi-model predictions. The under-dispersion has been

  11. Modeling fracture in the context of a strain-limiting theory of elasticity: a single anti-plane shear crack

    KAUST Repository

    Rajagopal, K. R.

    2011-01-06

    This paper is the first part of an extended program to develop a theory of fracture in the context of strain-limiting theories of elasticity. This program exploits a novel approach to modeling the mechanical response of elastic, that is non-dissipative, materials through implicit constitutive relations. The particular class of models studied here can also be viewed as arising from an explicit theory in which the displacement gradient is specified to be a nonlinear function of stress. This modeling construct generalizes the classical Cauchy and Green theories of elasticity which are included as special cases. It was conjectured that special forms of these implicit theories that limit strains to physically realistic maximum levels even for arbitrarily large stresses would be ideal for modeling fracture by offering a modeling paradigm that avoids the crack-tip strain singularities characteristic of classical fracture theories. The simplest fracture setting in which to explore this conjecture is anti-plane shear. It is demonstrated herein that for a specific choice of strain-limiting elasticity theory, crack-tip strains do indeed remain bounded. Moreover, the theory predicts a bounded stress field in the neighborhood of a crack-tip and a cusp-shaped opening displacement. The results confirm the conjecture that use of a strain limiting explicit theory in which the displacement gradient is given as a function of stress for modeling the bulk constitutive behavior obviates the necessity of introducing ad hoc modeling constructs such as crack-tip cohesive or process zones in order to correct the unphysical stress and strain singularities predicted by classical linear elastic fracture mechanics. © 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  12. Prostate Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing prostate cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  13. Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing colorectal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  14. Esophageal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing esophageal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  15. Bladder Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing bladder cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  16. Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing lung cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  17. Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing breast cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  18. Pancreatic Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing pancreatic cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  19. Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing ovarian cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  20. Liver Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing liver cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  1. Testicular Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of testicular cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  2. Cervical Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  3. Modeling and Prediction Using Stochastic Differential Equations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juhl, Rune; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2016-01-01

    Pharmacokinetic/pharmakodynamic (PK/PD) modeling for a single subject is most often performed using nonlinear models based on deterministic ordinary differential equations (ODEs), and the variation between subjects in a population of subjects is described using a population (mixed effects) setup...... deterministic and can predict the future perfectly. A more realistic approach would be to allow for randomness in the model due to e.g., the model be too simple or errors in input. We describe a modeling and prediction setup which better reflects reality and suggests stochastic differential equations (SDEs...

  4. Predictive Model of Systemic Toxicity (SOT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    In an effort to ensure chemical safety in light of regulatory advances away from reliance on animal testing, USEPA and L’Oréal have collaborated to develop a quantitative systemic toxicity prediction model. Prediction of human systemic toxicity has proved difficult and remains a ...

  5. The Finite Strain Johnson Cook Plasticity and Damage Constitutive Model in ALEGRA.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanchez, Jason James [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2018-02-01

    A finite strain formulation of the Johnson Cook plasticity and damage model and it's numerical implementation into the ALEGRA code is presented. The goal of this work is to improve the predictive material failure capability of the Johnson Cook model. The new implementation consists of a coupling of damage and the stored elastic energy as well as the minimum failure strain criteria for spall included in the original model development. This effort establishes the necessary foundation for a thermodynamically consistent and complete continuum solid material model, for which all intensive properties derive from a common energy. The motivation for developing such a model is to improve upon ALEGRA's present combined model framework. Several applications of the new Johnson Cook implementation are presented. Deformation driven loading paths demonstrate the basic features of the new model formulation. Use of the model produces good comparisons with experimental Taylor impact data. Localized deformation leading to fragmentation is produced for expanding ring and exploding cylinder applications.

  6. MODELING OF STRAIN-INDUCED PRECIPITATION KINETICS IN Nb MICROALLOYED STEELS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    X.G. Zhou; Z.Y. Liu; D. Wu; Z.Li; C.M. Li

    2006-01-01

    On the basis of the thermodynamic calculation of precipitation and considering the effect of strain on the precipitation behavior and chemical composition (Si and Mn), the kinetics of precipitation from austenite has been investigated for different temperatures and strains. Nucleation theory and the solubility product of niobium, carbon, and nitrogen in austenite have been used to derive equations for the start time of precipitation as a function of temperature and composition. The value of n in Avrami equation was determined using the available experimental data from the published reports, which indicated that n is a constant independent of temperature and the end time of precipitation is a function of n and the start time of precipitation. The values of the start time and end time of precipitation predicted by the new model are compared with the experimental values and a good agreement was obtained between both.

  7. Prediction of stress- and strain-based forming limits of automotive thin sheets by numerical, theoretical and experimental methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Béres, Gábor; Weltsch, Zoltán; Lukács, Zsolt; Tisza, Miklós

    2018-05-01

    Forming limit is a complex concept of limit values related to the onset of local necking in the sheet metal. In cold sheet metal forming, major and minor limit strains are influenced by the sheet thickness, strain path (deformation history) as well as material parameters and microstructure. Forming Limit Curves are plotted in ɛ1 - ɛ2 coordinate system providing the classic strain-based Forming Limit Diagram (FLD). Using the appropriate constitutive model, the limit strains can be changed into the stress-based Forming Limit Diagram (SFLD), irrespective of the strain path. This study is about the effect of the hardening model parameters on defining of limit stress values during Nakazima tests for automotive dual phase (DP) steels. Five limit strain pairs were specified experimentally with the loading of five different sheet geometries, which performed different strain-paths from pure shear (-2ɛ2=ɛ1) up to biaxial stretching (ɛ2=ɛ1). The former works of Hill, Levy-Tyne and Keeler-Brazier made possible some kind of theoretical strain determination, too. This was followed by the stress calculation based on the experimental and theoretical strain data. Since the n exponent in the Nádai expression is varying with the strain at some DP steels, we applied the least-squares method to fit other hardening model parameters (Ludwik, Voce, Hockett-Sherby) to calculate the stress fields belonging to each limit strains. The results showed that each model parameters could produce some discrepancies between the limit stress states in the range of higher equivalent strains than uniaxial stretching. The calculated hardening models were imported to FE code to extend and validate the results by numerical simulations.

  8. Optimal decolorization and kinetic modeling of synthetic dyes by Pseudomonas strains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, J; Wang, X; Yue, P L

    2001-10-01

    Pseudomonas spp were isolated from an anaerobic-aerobic dyeing house wastewater treatment facility as the most active azo-dye degraders. Decolorization of azo dyes and non-azo dyes including anthraquinone, metal complex and indigo was compared with individual strains and a bacterial consortium consisting of the individual strain and municipal sludge (50 50wt). The consortium showed a significant improvement on decolorization of two recalcitrant non-azo dyes, but little effect on the dyes that the individual strains could degrade to a great or moderate extent. Decolorization of Acid violet 7 (monoazo) by a Pseudomonas strain GM3 was studied in detail under various conditions. The optimum decolorization activity was observed in a narrow pH range (7-8), a narrow temperature range (35-40 degrees C), and at the presence of organic and ammonium nitrogen. Nitrate had a severe inhibitory effect on azo dye decolorization: 10 mg/L led to 50% drop in decolorization activity and 1000 mg/L to complete activity depression. A kinetic model is established giving the dependence of decolorization rate on cell mass concentration (first-order) and dye concentration (half order). The rate increased with temperature from 10 to 35 C, which can be predicted by Arrhenius equation with the activation energy of 16.87 kcal/mol and the frequency factor of 1.49 x 10(11) (mg L)1/2/g DCM min.

  9. Spent fuel: prediction model development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Almassy, M.Y.; Bosi, D.M.; Cantley, D.A.

    1979-07-01

    The need for spent fuel disposal performance modeling stems from a requirement to assess the risks involved with deep geologic disposal of spent fuel, and to support licensing and public acceptance of spent fuel repositories. Through the balanced program of analysis, diagnostic testing, and disposal demonstration tests, highlighted in this presentation, the goal of defining risks and of quantifying fuel performance during long-term disposal can be attained

  10. Navy Recruit Attrition Prediction Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    have high correlation with attrition, such as age, job characteristics, command climate, marital status, behavior issues prior to recruitment, and the...the additive model. glm(formula = Outcome ~ Age + Gender + Marital + AFQTCat + Pay + Ed + Dep, family = binomial, data = ltraining) Deviance ...0.1 ‘ ‘ 1 (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1) Null deviance : 105441 on 85221 degrees of freedom Residual deviance

  11. Predicting and Modeling RNA Architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westhof, Eric; Masquida, Benoît; Jossinet, Fabrice

    2011-01-01

    SUMMARY A general approach for modeling the architecture of large and structured RNA molecules is described. The method exploits the modularity and the hierarchical folding of RNA architecture that is viewed as the assembly of preformed double-stranded helices defined by Watson-Crick base pairs and RNA modules maintained by non-Watson-Crick base pairs. Despite the extensive molecular neutrality observed in RNA structures, specificity in RNA folding is achieved through global constraints like lengths of helices, coaxiality of helical stacks, and structures adopted at the junctions of helices. The Assemble integrated suite of computer tools allows for sequence and structure analysis as well as interactive modeling by homology or ab initio assembly with possibilities for fitting within electronic density maps. The local key role of non-Watson-Crick pairs guides RNA architecture formation and offers metrics for assessing the accuracy of three-dimensional models in a more useful way than usual root mean square deviation (RMSD) values. PMID:20504963

  12. Predictive Models and Computational Toxicology (II IBAMTOX)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA’s ‘virtual embryo’ project is building an integrative systems biology framework for predictive models of developmental toxicity. One schema involves a knowledge-driven adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework utilizing information from public databases, standardized ontologies...

  13. Finding furfural hydrogenation catalysts via predictive modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Strassberger, Z.; Mooijman, M.; Ruijter, E.; Alberts, A.H.; Maldonado, A.G.; Orru, R.V.A.; Rothenberg, G.

    2010-01-01

    We combine multicomponent reactions, catalytic performance studies and predictive modelling to find transfer hydrogenation catalysts. An initial set of 18 ruthenium-carbene complexes were synthesized and screened in the transfer hydrogenation of furfural to furfurol with isopropyl alcohol complexes

  14. FINITE ELEMENT MODEL FOR PREDICTING RESIDUAL ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    FINITE ELEMENT MODEL FOR PREDICTING RESIDUAL STRESSES IN ... the transverse residual stress in the x-direction (σx) had a maximum value of 375MPa ... the finite element method are in fair agreement with the experimental results.

  15. Evaluation of CASP8 model quality predictions

    KAUST Repository

    Cozzetto, Domenico; Kryshtafovych, Andriy; Tramontano, Anna

    2009-01-01

    established a prediction category to evaluate their performance in 2006. In 2008 the experiment was repeated and its results are reported here. Participants were invited to infer the correctness of the protein models submitted by the registered automatic

  16. Revisiting the Cramér Rao Lower Bound for Elastography: Predicting the Performance of Axial, Lateral and Polar Strain Elastograms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, Prashant; Doyley, Marvin M

    2017-09-01

    We derived the Cramér Rao lower bound for 2-D estimators employed in quasi-static elastography. To illustrate the theory, we modeled the 2-D point spread function as a sinc-modulated sine pulse in the axial direction and as a sinc function in the lateral direction. We compared theoretical predictions of the variance incurred in displacements and strains when quasi-static elastography was performed under varying conditions (different scanning methods, different configuration of conventional linear array imaging and different-size kernels) with those measured from simulated or experimentally acquired data. We performed studies to illustrate the application of the derived expressions when performing vascular elastography with plane wave and compounded plane wave imaging. Standard deviations in lateral displacements were an order higher than those in axial. Additionally, the derived expressions predicted that peak performance should occur when 2% strain is applied, the same order of magnitude as observed in simulations (1%) and experiments (1%-2%). We assessed how different configurations of conventional linear array imaging (number of active reception and transmission elements) influenced the quality of axial and lateral strain elastograms. The theoretical expressions predicted that 2-D echo tracking should be performed with wide kernels, but the length of the kernels should be selected using knowledge of the magnitude of the applied strain: specifically, longer kernels for small strains (<5%) and shorter kernels for larger strains. Although the general trends of theoretical predictions and experimental observations were similar, biases incurred during beamforming and subsample displacement estimation produced noticeable differences. Copyright © 2017 World Federation for Ultrasound in Medicine & Biology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Mental models accurately predict emotion transitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Mark A; Tamir, Diana I

    2017-06-06

    Successful social interactions depend on people's ability to predict others' future actions and emotions. People possess many mechanisms for perceiving others' current emotional states, but how might they use this information to predict others' future states? We hypothesized that people might capitalize on an overlooked aspect of affective experience: current emotions predict future emotions. By attending to regularities in emotion transitions, perceivers might develop accurate mental models of others' emotional dynamics. People could then use these mental models of emotion transitions to predict others' future emotions from currently observable emotions. To test this hypothesis, studies 1-3 used data from three extant experience-sampling datasets to establish the actual rates of emotional transitions. We then collected three parallel datasets in which participants rated the transition likelihoods between the same set of emotions. Participants' ratings of emotion transitions predicted others' experienced transitional likelihoods with high accuracy. Study 4 demonstrated that four conceptual dimensions of mental state representation-valence, social impact, rationality, and human mind-inform participants' mental models. Study 5 used 2 million emotion reports on the Experience Project to replicate both of these findings: again people reported accurate models of emotion transitions, and these models were informed by the same four conceptual dimensions. Importantly, neither these conceptual dimensions nor holistic similarity could fully explain participants' accuracy, suggesting that their mental models contain accurate information about emotion dynamics above and beyond what might be predicted by static emotion knowledge alone.

  18. Mental models accurately predict emotion transitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Mark A.; Tamir, Diana I.

    2017-01-01

    Successful social interactions depend on people’s ability to predict others’ future actions and emotions. People possess many mechanisms for perceiving others’ current emotional states, but how might they use this information to predict others’ future states? We hypothesized that people might capitalize on an overlooked aspect of affective experience: current emotions predict future emotions. By attending to regularities in emotion transitions, perceivers might develop accurate mental models of others’ emotional dynamics. People could then use these mental models of emotion transitions to predict others’ future emotions from currently observable emotions. To test this hypothesis, studies 1–3 used data from three extant experience-sampling datasets to establish the actual rates of emotional transitions. We then collected three parallel datasets in which participants rated the transition likelihoods between the same set of emotions. Participants’ ratings of emotion transitions predicted others’ experienced transitional likelihoods with high accuracy. Study 4 demonstrated that four conceptual dimensions of mental state representation—valence, social impact, rationality, and human mind—inform participants’ mental models. Study 5 used 2 million emotion reports on the Experience Project to replicate both of these findings: again people reported accurate models of emotion transitions, and these models were informed by the same four conceptual dimensions. Importantly, neither these conceptual dimensions nor holistic similarity could fully explain participants’ accuracy, suggesting that their mental models contain accurate information about emotion dynamics above and beyond what might be predicted by static emotion knowledge alone. PMID:28533373

  19. Prediction of Local Ultimate Strain and Toughness of Trabecular Bone Tissue by Raman Material Composition Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Carretta

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Clinical studies indicate that bone mineral density correlates with fracture risk at the population level but does not correlate with individual fracture risk well. Current research aims to better understand the failure mechanism of bone and to identify key determinants of bone quality, thus improving fracture risk prediction. To get a better understanding of bone strength, it is important to analyze tissue-level properties not influenced by macro- or microarchitectural factors. The aim of this pilot study was to identify whether and to what extent material properties are correlated with mechanical properties at the tissue level. The influence of macro- or microarchitectural factors was excluded by testing individual trabeculae. Previously reported data of mechanical parameters measured in single trabeculae under tension and bending and its compositional properties measured by Raman spectroscopy was evaluated. Linear and multivariate regressions show that bone matrix quality but not quantity was significantly and independently correlated with the tissue-level ultimate strain and postyield work (r=0.65–0.94. Principal component analysis extracted three independent components explaining 86% of the total variance, representing elastic, yield, and ultimate components according to the included mechanical parameters. Some matrix parameters were both included in the ultimate component, indicating that the variation in ultimate strain and postyield work could be largely explained by Raman-derived compositional parameters.

  20. Return Predictability, Model Uncertainty, and Robust Investment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lukas, Manuel

    Stock return predictability is subject to great uncertainty. In this paper we use the model confidence set approach to quantify uncertainty about expected utility from investment, accounting for potential return predictability. For monthly US data and six representative return prediction models, we...... find that confidence sets are very wide, change significantly with the predictor variables, and frequently include expected utilities for which the investor prefers not to invest. The latter motivates a robust investment strategy maximizing the minimal element of the confidence set. The robust investor...... allocates a much lower share of wealth to stocks compared to a standard investor....

  1. Model predictive Controller for Mobile Robot

    OpenAIRE

    Alireza Rezaee

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a Model Predictive Controller (MPC) for control of a P2AT mobile robot. MPC refers to a group of controllers that employ a distinctly identical model of process to predict its future behavior over an extended prediction horizon. The design of a MPC is formulated as an optimal control problem. Then this problem is considered as linear quadratic equation (LQR) and is solved by making use of Ricatti equation. To show the effectiveness of the proposed method this controller is...

  2. Spatial Economics Model Predicting Transport Volume

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Bo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available It is extremely important to predict the logistics requirements in a scientific and rational way. However, in recent years, the improvement effect on the prediction method is not very significant and the traditional statistical prediction method has the defects of low precision and poor interpretation of the prediction model, which cannot only guarantee the generalization ability of the prediction model theoretically, but also cannot explain the models effectively. Therefore, in combination with the theories of the spatial economics, industrial economics, and neo-classical economics, taking city of Zhuanghe as the research object, the study identifies the leading industry that can produce a large number of cargoes, and further predicts the static logistics generation of the Zhuanghe and hinterlands. By integrating various factors that can affect the regional logistics requirements, this study established a logistics requirements potential model from the aspect of spatial economic principles, and expanded the way of logistics requirements prediction from the single statistical principles to an new area of special and regional economics.

  3. Accuracy assessment of landslide prediction models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Othman, A N; Mohd, W M N W; Noraini, S

    2014-01-01

    The increasing population and expansion of settlements over hilly areas has greatly increased the impact of natural disasters such as landslide. Therefore, it is important to developed models which could accurately predict landslide hazard zones. Over the years, various techniques and models have been developed to predict landslide hazard zones. The aim of this paper is to access the accuracy of landslide prediction models developed by the authors. The methodology involved the selection of study area, data acquisition, data processing and model development and also data analysis. The development of these models are based on nine different landslide inducing parameters i.e. slope, land use, lithology, soil properties, geomorphology, flow accumulation, aspect, proximity to river and proximity to road. Rank sum, rating, pairwise comparison and AHP techniques are used to determine the weights for each of the parameters used. Four (4) different models which consider different parameter combinations are developed by the authors. Results obtained are compared to landslide history and accuracies for Model 1, Model 2, Model 3 and Model 4 are 66.7, 66.7%, 60% and 22.9% respectively. From the results, rank sum, rating and pairwise comparison can be useful techniques to predict landslide hazard zones

  4. Formability prediction for AHSS materials using damage models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amaral, R.; Santos, Abel D.; José, César de Sá; Miranda, Sara

    2017-05-01

    Advanced high strength steels (AHSS) are seeing an increased use, mostly due to lightweight design in automobile industry and strict regulations on safety and greenhouse gases emissions. However, the use of these materials, characterized by a high strength to weight ratio, stiffness and high work hardening at early stages of plastic deformation, have imposed many challenges in sheet metal industry, mainly their low formability and different behaviour, when compared to traditional steels, which may represent a defying task, both to obtain a successful component and also when using numerical simulation to predict material behaviour and its fracture limits. Although numerical prediction of critical strains in sheet metal forming processes is still very often based on the classic forming limit diagrams, alternative approaches can use damage models, which are based on stress states to predict failure during the forming process and they can be classified as empirical, physics based and phenomenological models. In the present paper a comparative analysis of different ductile damage models is carried out, in order numerically evaluate two isotropic coupled damage models proposed by Johnson-Cook and Gurson-Tvergaard-Needleman (GTN), each of them corresponding to the first two previous group classification. Finite element analysis is used considering these damage mechanics approaches and the obtained results are compared with experimental Nakajima tests, thus being possible to evaluate and validate the ability to predict damage and formability limits for previous defined approaches.

  5. Formability prediction for AHSS materials using damage models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amaral, R.; Miranda, Sara; Santos, Abel D.; José, César de Sá

    2017-01-01

    Advanced high strength steels (AHSS) are seeing an increased use, mostly due to lightweight design in automobile industry and strict regulations on safety and greenhouse gases emissions. However, the use of these materials, characterized by a high strength to weight ratio, stiffness and high work hardening at early stages of plastic deformation, have imposed many challenges in sheet metal industry, mainly their low formability and different behaviour, when compared to traditional steels, which may represent a defying task, both to obtain a successful component and also when using numerical simulation to predict material behaviour and its fracture limits. Although numerical prediction of critical strains in sheet metal forming processes is still very often based on the classic forming limit diagrams, alternative approaches can use damage models, which are based on stress states to predict failure during the forming process and they can be classified as empirical, physics based and phenomenological models. In the present paper a comparative analysis of different ductile damage models is carried out, in order numerically evaluate two isotropic coupled damage models proposed by Johnson-Cook and Gurson-Tvergaard-Needleman (GTN), each of them corresponding to the first two previous group classification. Finite element analysis is used considering these damage mechanics approaches and the obtained results are compared with experimental Nakajima tests, thus being possible to evaluate and validate the ability to predict damage and formability limits for previous defined approaches. (paper)

  6. Soil Stress-Strain Behavior: Measurement, Modeling and Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Ling, Hoe I; Leshchinsky, Dov; Koseki, Junichi; A Collection of Papers of the Geotechnical Symposium in Rome

    2007-01-01

    This book is an outgrowth of the proceedings for the Geotechnical Symposium in Roma, which was held on March 16 and 17, 2006 in Rome, Italy. The Symposium was organized to celebrate the 60th birthday of Prof. Tatsuoka as well as honoring his research achievement. The publications are focused on the recent developments in the stress-strain behavior of geomaterials, with an emphasis on laboratory measurements, soil constitutive modeling and behavior of soil structures (such as reinforced soils, piles and slopes). The latest advancement in the field, such as the rate effect and dynamic behavior of both clay and sand, behavior of modified soils and soil mixtures, and soil liquefaction are addressed. A special keynote paper by Prof. Tatsuoka is included with three other keynote papers (presented by Prof. Lo Presti, Prof. Di Benedetto, and Prof. Shibuya).

  7. Application of local approach to quantitative prediction of degradation in fracture toughness of steels due to pre-straining and irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miyata, T.; Tagawa, T.

    1996-01-01

    Degradation of cleavage fracture toughness for low carbon steels due to pre-straining and irradiation was investigated on the basis of the local fracture criterion approach. Formulation of cleavage fracture toughness through the statistical modelling proposed by BEREMIN has been simplified by the present authors to the expression involving yield stress and cleavage fracture stress of materials. A few percent pre-strain induced by cold rolling deteriorates significantly the cleavage fracture toughness. Ductile-brittle transition temperature is increased to more than 70 C higher by 8% straining in 500 MPa class high strength steel. Quantitative prediction of degradation has been successfully examined through the formulation of the cleavage fracture toughness. Analytical and experimental results indicate that degradation in toughness is caused by the increase of flow stress in pre-strained materials. Quantitative prediction of degradation of toughness due to irradiation has been also examined for the past experiments on the basis of the local fracture criterion approach. Analytical prediction from variance of yield stress by irradiation is well consistent with the experimental results. (orig.)

  8. Finding Furfural Hydrogenation Catalysts via Predictive Modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strassberger, Zea; Mooijman, Maurice; Ruijter, Eelco; Alberts, Albert H; Maldonado, Ana G; Orru, Romano V A; Rothenberg, Gadi

    2010-09-10

    We combine multicomponent reactions, catalytic performance studies and predictive modelling to find transfer hydrogenation catalysts. An initial set of 18 ruthenium-carbene complexes were synthesized and screened in the transfer hydrogenation of furfural to furfurol with isopropyl alcohol complexes gave varied yields, from 62% up to >99.9%, with no obvious structure/activity correlations. Control experiments proved that the carbene ligand remains coordinated to the ruthenium centre throughout the reaction. Deuterium-labelling studies showed a secondary isotope effect (k(H):k(D)=1.5). Further mechanistic studies showed that this transfer hydrogenation follows the so-called monohydride pathway. Using these data, we built a predictive model for 13 of the catalysts, based on 2D and 3D molecular descriptors. We tested and validated the model using the remaining five catalysts (cross-validation, R(2)=0.913). Then, with this model, the conversion and selectivity were predicted for four completely new ruthenium-carbene complexes. These four catalysts were then synthesized and tested. The results were within 3% of the model's predictions, demonstrating the validity and value of predictive modelling in catalyst optimization.

  9. Corporate prediction models, ratios or regression analysis?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijnen, E.J.; Wijn, M.F.C.M.

    1994-01-01

    The models developed in the literature with respect to the prediction of a company s failure are based on ratios. It has been shown before that these models should be rejected on theoretical grounds. Our study of industrial companies in the Netherlands shows that the ratios which are used in

  10. Predicting Protein Secondary Structure with Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fischer, Paul; Larsen, Simon; Thomsen, Claus

    2004-01-01

    we are considering here, is to predict the secondary structure from the primary one. To this end we train a Markov model on training data and then use it to classify parts of unknown protein sequences as sheets, helices or coils. We show how to exploit the directional information contained...... in the Markov model for this task. Classifications that are purely based on statistical models might not always be biologically meaningful. We present combinatorial methods to incorporate biological background knowledge to enhance the prediction performance....

  11. Energy based prediction models for building acoustics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brunskog, Jonas

    2012-01-01

    In order to reach robust and simplified yet accurate prediction models, energy based principle are commonly used in many fields of acoustics, especially in building acoustics. This includes simple energy flow models, the framework of statistical energy analysis (SEA) as well as more elaborated...... principles as, e.g., wave intensity analysis (WIA). The European standards for building acoustic predictions, the EN 12354 series, are based on energy flow and SEA principles. In the present paper, different energy based prediction models are discussed and critically reviewed. Special attention is placed...... on underlying basic assumptions, such as diffuse fields, high modal overlap, resonant field being dominant, etc., and the consequences of these in terms of limitations in the theory and in the practical use of the models....

  12. Comparative Study of Bancruptcy Prediction Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isye Arieshanti

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Early indication of bancruptcy is important for a company. If companies aware of  potency of their bancruptcy, they can take a preventive action to anticipate the bancruptcy. In order to detect the potency of a bancruptcy, a company can utilize a a model of bancruptcy prediction. The prediction model can be built using a machine learning methods. However, the choice of machine learning methods should be performed carefully. Because the suitability of a model depends on the problem specifically. Therefore, in this paper we perform a comparative study of several machine leaning methods for bancruptcy prediction. According to the comparative study, the performance of several models that based on machine learning methods (k-NN, fuzzy k-NN, SVM, Bagging Nearest Neighbour SVM, Multilayer Perceptron(MLP, Hybrid of MLP + Multiple Linear Regression, it can be showed that fuzzy k-NN method achieve the best performance with accuracy 77.5%

  13. Prediction of giant intrinsic spin-Hall effect in strained p-GaAs quantum wells

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schindler, Christoph; Kubis, Tillmann; Vogl, Peter [Walter Schottky Institut, Technische Universitaet Muenchen, Garching (Germany)

    2009-07-01

    We present a systematic study of the intrinsic spin-Hall effect and its inverse effect in various two dimensional nanostructures using the non-equilibrium Green's function technique. We include elastic impurity scattering as well as inelastic acoustical phonon scattering. The parameters for the Dresselhaus and Rashba spin-orbit coupling are obtained from an atomistic tight binding calculation. We predict exceptionally large spin polarization effects in specially band engineered and geometrically designed nanostructures. In strained p-GasAs, we find a k-linear spin splitting that is enhanced by a factor of 50 compared to the unstrained case. We propose a T shaped three-terminal device that acts as a spin polarizer without external magnetic field. Optimizing the geometry with respect to the spin-precession length results in a spin accumulation at the drain contacts of up to 25%. We also study the inverse intrinsic spin-Hall effect. In a four-terminal ''H'' shaped structure it can be used to measure the direct spin-Hall effect by simply applying a gate voltage. For such a measurement, we predict a threshold value for the spin-orbit coupling strength that cannot be met by simple n-GaAs systems.

  14. Markov chain modeling of evolution of strains in reinforced concrete flexural beams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anoop, M. B.

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available From the analysis of experimentally observed variations in surface strains with loading in reinforced concrete beams, it is noted that there is a need to consider the evolution of strains (with loading as a stochastic process. Use of Markov Chains for modeling stochastic evolution of strains with loading in reinforced concrete flexural beams is studied in this paper. A simple, yet practically useful, bi-level homogeneous Gaussian Markov Chain (BLHGMC model is proposed for determining the state of strain in reinforced concrete beams. The BLHGMC model will be useful for predicting behavior/response of reinforced concrete beams leading to more rational design.A través del análisis de la evolución de la deformación superficial observada experimentalmente en vigas de hormigón armado al entrar en carga, se constata que dicho proceso debe considerarse estocástico. En este trabajo se estudia la utilización de cadenas de Markov para modelizar la evolución estocástica de la deformación de vigas flexotraccionadas. Se propone, para establecer el estado de deformación de estas, un modelo con distribución gaussiana tipo cadena de Markov homogénea de dos niveles (BLHGMC por sus siglas en inglés, cuyo empleo resulta sencillo y práctico. Se comprueba la utilidad del modelo BLHGMC para prever el comportamiento de estos elementos, lo que determina a su vez una mayor racionalidad a la hora de su cálculo y diseño

  15. Prediction Models for Dynamic Demand Response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aman, Saima; Frincu, Marc; Chelmis, Charalampos; Noor, Muhammad; Simmhan, Yogesh; Prasanna, Viktor K.

    2015-11-02

    As Smart Grids move closer to dynamic curtailment programs, Demand Response (DR) events will become necessary not only on fixed time intervals and weekdays predetermined by static policies, but also during changing decision periods and weekends to react to real-time demand signals. Unique challenges arise in this context vis-a-vis demand prediction and curtailment estimation and the transformation of such tasks into an automated, efficient dynamic demand response (D2R) process. While existing work has concentrated on increasing the accuracy of prediction models for DR, there is a lack of studies for prediction models for D2R, which we address in this paper. Our first contribution is the formal definition of D2R, and the description of its challenges and requirements. Our second contribution is a feasibility analysis of very-short-term prediction of electricity consumption for D2R over a diverse, large-scale dataset that includes both small residential customers and large buildings. Our third, and major contribution is a set of insights into the predictability of electricity consumption in the context of D2R. Specifically, we focus on prediction models that can operate at a very small data granularity (here 15-min intervals), for both weekdays and weekends - all conditions that characterize scenarios for D2R. We find that short-term time series and simple averaging models used by Independent Service Operators and utilities achieve superior prediction accuracy. We also observe that workdays are more predictable than weekends and holiday. Also, smaller customers have large variation in consumption and are less predictable than larger buildings. Key implications of our findings are that better models are required for small customers and for non-workdays, both of which are critical for D2R. Also, prediction models require just few days’ worth of data indicating that small amounts of

  16. Atomistic modelling of diffusional phase transformations with elastic strain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mason, D R; Rudd, R E; Sutton, A P

    2004-01-01

    Phase transformations in 2xxx series aluminium alloys (Al-Cu-Mg) are investigated with an off-lattice atomistic kinetic Monte Carlo simulation incorporating the effects of strain around misfitting atoms and vacancies. Atomic interactions are modelled by Finnis-Sinclair potentials constructed for these simulations. Vacancy diffusion is modelled by comparing the energies of trial states, where the system is partially relaxed for each trial state. No special requirements are made about the description of atomic interactions, making our approach suitable for more fundamentally based models such as tight binding if sufficient computational resources are available. Only a limited precision is required for the energy of each trial state, determined by the value of k B T. Since the change in the relaxation displacement field caused by a vacancy hop decays as 1/r 3 , it is sufficient to determine the next move by relaxing only those atoms in a sphere of finite radius centred on the moving vacancy. However, once the next move has been selected, the entire system is relaxed. Simulations of the early stages of phase separation in Al-Cu with elastic relaxation show an enhanced rate of clustering compared to those performed on the same system with a rigid lattice

  17. Evaluation of CASP8 model quality predictions

    KAUST Repository

    Cozzetto, Domenico

    2009-01-01

    The model quality assessment problem consists in the a priori estimation of the overall and per-residue accuracy of protein structure predictions. Over the past years, a number of methods have been developed to address this issue and CASP established a prediction category to evaluate their performance in 2006. In 2008 the experiment was repeated and its results are reported here. Participants were invited to infer the correctness of the protein models submitted by the registered automatic servers. Estimates could apply to both whole models and individual amino acids. Groups involved in the tertiary structure prediction categories were also asked to assign local error estimates to each predicted residue in their own models and their results are also discussed here. The correlation between the predicted and observed correctness measures was the basis of the assessment of the results. We observe that consensus-based methods still perform significantly better than those accepting single models, similarly to what was concluded in the previous edition of the experiment. © 2009 WILEY-LISS, INC.

  18. Finding Furfural Hydrogenation Catalysts via Predictive Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strassberger, Zea; Mooijman, Maurice; Ruijter, Eelco; Alberts, Albert H; Maldonado, Ana G; Orru, Romano V A; Rothenberg, Gadi

    2010-01-01

    Abstract We combine multicomponent reactions, catalytic performance studies and predictive modelling to find transfer hydrogenation catalysts. An initial set of 18 ruthenium-carbene complexes were synthesized and screened in the transfer hydrogenation of furfural to furfurol with isopropyl alcohol complexes gave varied yields, from 62% up to >99.9%, with no obvious structure/activity correlations. Control experiments proved that the carbene ligand remains coordinated to the ruthenium centre throughout the reaction. Deuterium-labelling studies showed a secondary isotope effect (kH:kD=1.5). Further mechanistic studies showed that this transfer hydrogenation follows the so-called monohydride pathway. Using these data, we built a predictive model for 13 of the catalysts, based on 2D and 3D molecular descriptors. We tested and validated the model using the remaining five catalysts (cross-validation, R2=0.913). Then, with this model, the conversion and selectivity were predicted for four completely new ruthenium-carbene complexes. These four catalysts were then synthesized and tested. The results were within 3% of the model’s predictions, demonstrating the validity and value of predictive modelling in catalyst optimization. PMID:23193388

  19. Modeling two strains of disease via aggregate-level infectivity curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanescu, Razvan; Deardon, Rob

    2016-04-01

    Well formulated models of disease spread, and efficient methods to fit them to observed data, are powerful tools for aiding the surveillance and control of infectious diseases. Our project considers the problem of the simultaneous spread of two related strains of disease in a context where spatial location is the key driver of disease spread. We start our modeling work with the individual level models (ILMs) of disease transmission, and extend these models to accommodate the competing spread of the pathogens in a two-tier hierarchical population (whose levels we refer to as 'farm' and 'animal'). The postulated interference mechanism between the two strains is a period of cross-immunity following infection. We also present a framework for speeding up the computationally intensive process of fitting the ILM to data, typically done using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in a Bayesian framework, by turning the inference into a two-stage process. First, we approximate the number of animals infected on a farm over time by infectivity curves. These curves are fit to data sampled from farms, using maximum likelihood estimation, then, conditional on the fitted curves, Bayesian MCMC inference proceeds for the remaining parameters. Finally, we use posterior predictive distributions of salient epidemic summary statistics, in order to assess the model fitted.

  20. Wind farm production prediction - The Zephyr model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landberg, L. [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy Dept., Roskilde (Denmark); Giebel, G. [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy Dept., Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H. [IMM (DTU), Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, T.S. [IMM (DTU), Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark); Joergensen, J.U. [Danish Meteorologisk Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Lauersen, L. [Danish Meteorologisk Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Toefting, J. [Elsam, Fredericia (DK); Christensen, H.S. [Eltra, Fredericia (Denmark); Bjerge, C. [SEAS, Haslev (Denmark)

    2002-06-01

    This report describes a project - funded by the Danish Ministry of Energy and the Environment - which developed a next generation prediction system called Zephyr. The Zephyr system is a merging between two state-of-the-art prediction systems: Prediktor of Risoe National Laboratory and WPPT of IMM at the Danish Technical University. The numerical weather predictions were generated by DMI's HIRLAM model. Due to technical difficulties programming the system, only the computational core and a very simple version of the originally very complex system were developed. The project partners were: Risoe, DMU, DMI, Elsam, Eltra, Elkraft System, SEAS and E2. (au)

  1. Model predictive controller design of hydrocracker reactors

    OpenAIRE

    GÖKÇE, Dila

    2011-01-01

    This study summarizes the design of a Model Predictive Controller (MPC) in Tüpraş, İzmit Refinery Hydrocracker Unit Reactors. Hydrocracking process, in which heavy vacuum gasoil is converted into lighter and valuable products at high temperature and pressure is described briefly. Controller design description, identification and modeling studies are examined and the model variables are presented. WABT (Weighted Average Bed Temperature) equalization and conversion increase are simulate...

  2. Kinematic Hardening: Characterization, Modeling and Impact on Springback Prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alves, J. L.; Bouvier, S.; Jomaa, M.; Billardon, R.; Oliveira, M. C.; Menezes, L. F.

    2007-01-01

    The constitutive modeling of the materials' mechanical behavior, usually carried out using a phenomenological constitutive model, i.e., a yield criterion associated to the isotropic and kinematic hardening laws, is of paramount importance in the FEM simulation of the sheet metal forming processes, as well as in the springback prediction. Among others, the kinematic behavior of the yield surface plays an essential role, since it is indispensable to describe the Bauschinger effect, i.e., the materials' answer to the multiple tension-compression cycles to which material points are submitted during the forming process. Several laws are usually used to model and describe the kinematic hardening, namely: a) the Prager's law, which describes a linear evolution of the kinematic hardening with the plastic strain rate tensor b) the Frederick-Armstrong non-linear kinematic hardening, basically a non-linear law with saturation; and c) a more advanced physically-based law, similar to the previous one but sensitive to the strain path changes. In the present paper a mixed kinematic hardening law (linear + non-linear behavior) is proposed and its implementation into a static fully-implicit FE code is described. The material parameters identification for sheet metals using different strategies, and the classical Bauschinger loading tests (i.e. in-plane forward and reverse monotonic loading), are addressed, and their impact on springback prediction evaluated. Some numerical results concerning the springback prediction of the Numisheet'05 Benchmark no. 3 are briefly presented to emphasize the importance of a correct modeling and identification of the kinematic hardening behavior

  3. Strain and rate-dependent neuronal injury in a 3D in vitro compression model of traumatic brain injury

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bar-Kochba, Eyal; Scimone, Mark T.; Estrada, Jonathan B.; Franck, Christian

    2016-01-01

    In the United States over 1.7 million cases of traumatic brain injury are reported yearly, but predictive correlation of cellular injury to impact tissue strain is still lacking, particularly for neuronal injury resulting from compression. Given the prevalence of compressive deformations in most blunt head trauma, this information is critically important for the development of future mitigation and diagnosis strategies. Using a 3D in vitro neuronal compression model, we investigated the role of impact strain and strain rate on neuronal lifetime, viability, and pathomorphology. We find that strain magnitude and rate have profound, yet distinctively different effects on the injury pathology. While strain magnitude affects the time of neuronal death, strain rate influences the pathomorphology and extent of population injury. Cellular injury is not initiated through localized deformation of the cytoskeleton but rather driven by excess strain on the entire cell. Furthermore we find that, mechanoporation, one of the key pathological trigger mechanisms in stretch and shear neuronal injuries, was not observed under compression. PMID:27480807

  4. Multi-Model Ensemble Wake Vortex Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koerner, Stephan; Holzaepfel, Frank; Ahmad, Nash'at N.

    2015-01-01

    Several multi-model ensemble methods are investigated for predicting wake vortex transport and decay. This study is a joint effort between National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt to develop a multi-model ensemble capability using their wake models. An overview of different multi-model ensemble methods and their feasibility for wake applications is presented. The methods include Reliability Ensemble Averaging, Bayesian Model Averaging, and Monte Carlo Simulations. The methodologies are evaluated using data from wake vortex field experiments.

  5. Risk terrain modeling predicts child maltreatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daley, Dyann; Bachmann, Michael; Bachmann, Brittany A; Pedigo, Christian; Bui, Minh-Thuy; Coffman, Jamye

    2016-12-01

    As indicated by research on the long-term effects of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), maltreatment has far-reaching consequences for affected children. Effective prevention measures have been elusive, partly due to difficulty in identifying vulnerable children before they are harmed. This study employs Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM), an analysis of the cumulative effect of environmental factors thought to be conducive for child maltreatment, to create a highly accurate prediction model for future substantiated child maltreatment cases in the City of Fort Worth, Texas. The model is superior to commonly used hotspot predictions and more beneficial in aiding prevention efforts in a number of ways: 1) it identifies the highest risk areas for future instances of child maltreatment with improved precision and accuracy; 2) it aids the prioritization of risk-mitigating efforts by informing about the relative importance of the most significant contributing risk factors; 3) since predictions are modeled as a function of easily obtainable data, practitioners do not have to undergo the difficult process of obtaining official child maltreatment data to apply it; 4) the inclusion of a multitude of environmental risk factors creates a more robust model with higher predictive validity; and, 5) the model does not rely on a retrospective examination of past instances of child maltreatment, but adapts predictions to changing environmental conditions. The present study introduces and examines the predictive power of this new tool to aid prevention efforts seeking to improve the safety, health, and wellbeing of vulnerable children. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  6. In silico strain optimization by adding reactions to metabolic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Correia, Sara; Rocha, Miguel

    2012-07-24

    Nowadays, the concerns about the environment and the needs to increase the productivity at low costs, demand for the search of new ways to produce compounds with industrial interest. Based on the increasing knowledge of biological processes, through genome sequencing projects, and high-throughput experimental techniques as well as the available computational tools, the use of microorganisms has been considered as an approach to produce desirable compounds. However, this usually requires to manipulate these organisms by genetic engineering and/ or changing the enviromental conditions to make the production of these compounds possible. In many cases, it is necessary to enrich the genetic material of those microbes with hereologous pathways from other species and consequently adding the potential to produce novel compounds. This paper introduces a new plug-in for the OptFlux Metabolic Engineering platform, aimed at finding suitable sets of reactions to add to the genomes of selected microbes (wild type strain), as well as finding complementary sets of deletions, so that the mutant becomes able to overproduce compounds with industrial interest, while preserving their viability. The necessity of adding reactions to the metabolic model arises from existing gaps in the original model or motivated by the productions of new compounds by the organism. The optimization methods used are metaheuristics such as Evolutionary Algorithms and Simulated Annealing. The usefulness of this plug-in is demonstrated by a case study, regarding the production of vanillin by the bacterium E. coli.

  7. Processing plant persistent strains of Listeria monocytogenes appear to have a lower virulence potential than clinical strains in selected virulence models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Anne; Thomsen, L.E.; Jørgensen, R.L.

    2008-01-01

    cell line, Caco-2; time to death in a nematode model, Caenorhabditis elegans and in a fruit fly model, Drosophila melanogaster and fecal shedding in a guinea pig model. All strains adhered to and grew in Caco-2 cells in similar levels. When exposed to 10(6) CFU/ml, two strains representing......% killed C elegans worms was longer (110 h) for the RAPD type 9 strains than for the other four strains (80 h). The Scott A strain and one RAPD type 9 strain were suspended in whipping cream before being fed to guinea pigs and the persistent RAPD type 9 strain was isolated from feces in a lower level...... to contaminate food products, and it is important to determine their virulence potential to evaluate risk to consumers. We compared the behaviour of food processing persistent and clinical L. monocytogenes strains in four virulence models: Adhesion, invasion and intracellular growth was studied in an epithelial...

  8. PREDICTIVE CAPACITY OF ARCH FAMILY MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raphael Silveira Amaro

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In the last decades, a remarkable number of models, variants from the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic family, have been developed and empirically tested, making extremely complex the process of choosing a particular model. This research aim to compare the predictive capacity, using the Model Confidence Set procedure, than five conditional heteroskedasticity models, considering eight different statistical probability distributions. The financial series which were used refers to the log-return series of the Bovespa index and the Dow Jones Industrial Index in the period between 27 October 2008 and 30 December 2014. The empirical evidences showed that, in general, competing models have a great homogeneity to make predictions, either for a stock market of a developed country or for a stock market of a developing country. An equivalent result can be inferred for the statistical probability distributions that were used.

  9. Alcator C-Mod predictive modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pankin, Alexei; Bateman, Glenn; Kritz, Arnold; Greenwald, Martin; Snipes, Joseph; Fredian, Thomas

    2001-01-01

    Predictive simulations for the Alcator C-mod tokamak [I. Hutchinson et al., Phys. Plasmas 1, 1511 (1994)] are carried out using the BALDUR integrated modeling code [C. E. Singer et al., Comput. Phys. Commun. 49, 275 (1988)]. The results are obtained for temperature and density profiles using the Multi-Mode transport model [G. Bateman et al., Phys. Plasmas 5, 1793 (1998)] as well as the mixed-Bohm/gyro-Bohm transport model [M. Erba et al., Plasma Phys. Controlled Fusion 39, 261 (1997)]. The simulated discharges are characterized by very high plasma density in both low and high modes of confinement. The predicted profiles for each of the transport models match the experimental data about equally well in spite of the fact that the two models have different dimensionless scalings. Average relative rms deviations are less than 8% for the electron density profiles and 16% for the electron and ion temperature profiles

  10. A New Material Constitutive Model for Predicting Cladding Failure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rashid, Joe; Dunham, Robert [ANATECH Corp., San Diego, CA (United States); Rashid, Mark [University of California Davis, Davis, CA (United States); Machiels, Albert [EPRI, Palo Alto, CA (United States)

    2009-06-15

    An important issue in fuel performance and safety evaluations is the characterization of the effects of hydrides on cladding mechanical response and failure behavior. The hydride structure formed during power operation transforms the cladding into a complex multi-material composite, with through-thickness concentration profile that causes cladding ductility to vary by more than an order of magnitude between ID and OD. However, current practice of mechanical property testing treats the cladding as a homogeneous material characterized by a single stress-strain curve, regardless of its hydride morphology. Consequently, as irradiation conditions and hydrides evolution change, new material property testing is required, which results in a state of continuous need for valid material property data. A recently developed constitutive model, treats the cladding as a multi-material composite in which the metal and the hydride platelets are treated as separate material phases with their own elastic-plastic and fracture properties and interacting at their interfaces with appropriate constraint conditions between them to ensure strain and stress compatibility. An essential feature of the model is a multi-phase damage formulation that models the complex interaction between the hydride phases and the metal matrix and the coupled effect of radial and circumferential hydrides on cladding stress-strain response. This gives the model the capability of directly predicting cladding failure progression during the loading event and, as such, provides a unique tool for constructing failure criteria analytically where none could be developed by conventional material testing. Implementation of the model in a fuel behavior code provides the capability to predict in-reactor operational failures due to PCI or missing pellet surfaces (MPS) without having to rely on failure criteria. Even, a stronger motivation for use of the model is in the transportation accidents analysis of spent fuel

  11. Small strain multiphase-field model accounting for configurational forces and mechanical jump conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Daniel; Schoof, Ephraim; Tschukin, Oleg; Reiter, Andreas; Herrmann, Christoph; Schwab, Felix; Selzer, Michael; Nestler, Britta

    2018-03-01

    Computational models based on the phase-field method have become an essential tool in material science and physics in order to investigate materials with complex microstructures. The models typically operate on a mesoscopic length scale resolving structural changes of the material and provide valuable information about the evolution of microstructures and mechanical property relations. For many interesting and important phenomena, such as martensitic phase transformation, mechanical driving forces play an important role in the evolution of microstructures. In order to investigate such physical processes, an accurate calculation of the stresses and the strain energy in the transition region is indispensable. We recall a multiphase-field elasticity model based on the force balance and the Hadamard jump condition at the interface. We show the quantitative characteristics of the model by comparing the stresses, strains and configurational forces with theoretical predictions in two-phase cases and with results from sharp interface calculations in a multiphase case. As an application, we choose the martensitic phase transformation process in multigrain systems and demonstrate the influence of the local homogenization scheme within the transition regions on the resulting microstructures.

  12. Stress strain modelling of casting processes in the framework of the control volume method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hattel, Jesper; Andersen, Søren; Thorborg, Jesper

    1998-01-01

    Realistic computer simulations of casting processes call for the solution of both thermal, fluid-flow and stress/strain related problems. The multitude of the influencing parameters, and their non-linear, transient and temperature dependent nature, make the calculations complex. Therefore the nee......, the present model is based on the mainly decoupled representation of the thermal, mechanical and microstructural processes. Examples of industrial applications, such as predicting residual deformations in castings and stress levels in die casting dies, are presented...... for fast, flexible, multidimensional numerical methods is obvious. The basis of the deformation and stress/strain calculation is a transient heat transfer analysis including solidification. This paper presents an approach where the stress/strain and the heat transfer analysis uses the same computational...... domain, which is highly convenient. The basis of the method is the control volume finite difference approach on structured meshes. The basic assumptions of the method are shortly reviewed and discussed. As for other methods which aim at application oriented analysis of casting deformations and stresses...

  13. Improvement of life prediction accuracy by introduction of strain-rate effect into modified ductility exhaustion method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takahashi, Yukio

    1994-01-01

    It is important to use a reliable creep-fatigue damage evaluation method to prevent failures due to creep-fatigue damage accumulated during operation life in the structural design for fast breeder reactor plants. In this study, slow strain-rate fatigue tests were conducted for SUS316 steel for fast breeder application (316FR) and the improvement of creep-fatigue life estimation method was proposed based on test results. Main results can be summarized as follows: (1) In the slow strain-rate fatigue tests, life reduction caused by creep damage was observed as in the case of strain-hold creep-fatigue tests. (2) Strain-rate dependency of creep damage was introduced into the modified ductility exhaustion method previously proposed by the author. Good agreement of predicted lives with observed lives was achieved for SUS304 and 316FR steels with the method proposed here. (author)

  14. Modelling the predictive performance of credit scoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi-Wei Shen

    2013-07-01

    Research purpose: The purpose of this empirical paper was to examine the predictive performance of credit scoring systems in Taiwan. Motivation for the study: Corporate lending remains a major business line for financial institutions. However, in light of the recent global financial crises, it has become extremely important for financial institutions to implement rigorous means of assessing clients seeking access to credit facilities. Research design, approach and method: Using a data sample of 10 349 observations drawn between 1992 and 2010, logistic regression models were utilised to examine the predictive performance of credit scoring systems. Main findings: A test of Goodness of fit demonstrated that credit scoring models that incorporated the Taiwan Corporate Credit Risk Index (TCRI, micro- and also macroeconomic variables possessed greater predictive power. This suggests that macroeconomic variables do have explanatory power for default credit risk. Practical/managerial implications: The originality in the study was that three models were developed to predict corporate firms’ defaults based on different microeconomic and macroeconomic factors such as the TCRI, asset growth rates, stock index and gross domestic product. Contribution/value-add: The study utilises different goodness of fits and receiver operator characteristics during the examination of the robustness of the predictive power of these factors.

  15. Strain dyssynchrony index determined by three-dimensional speckle area tracking can predict response to cardiac resynchronization therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Onishi Tetsuari

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We have previously reported strain dyssynchrony index assessed by two-dimensional speckle tracking strain, and a marker of both dyssynchrony and residual myocardial contractility, can predict response to cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT. A newly developed three-dimensional (3-D speckle tracking system can quantify endocardial area change ratio (area strain, which coupled with the factors of both longitudinal and circumferential strain, from all 16 standard left ventricular (LV segments using complete 3-D pyramidal datasets. Our objective was to test the hypothesis that strain dyssynchrony index using area tracking (ASDI can quantify dyssynchrony and predict response to CRT. Methods We studied 14 heart failure patients with ejection fraction of 27 ± 7% (all≤35% and QRS duration of 172 ± 30 ms (all≥120 ms who underwent CRT. Echocardiography was performed before and 6-month after CRT. ASDI was calculated as the average difference between peak and end-systolic area strain of LV endocardium obtained from 3-D speckle tracking imaging using 16 segments. Conventional dyssynchrony measures were assessed by interventricular mechanical delay, Yu Index, and two-dimensional radial dyssynchrony by speckle-tracking strain. Response was defined as a ≥15% decrease in LV end-systolic volume 6-month after CRT. Results ASDI ≥ 3.8% was the best predictor of response to CRT with a sensitivity of 78%, specificity of 100% and area under the curve (AUC of 0.93 (p Conclusions ASDI can predict responders and LV reverse remodeling following CRT. This novel index using the 3-D speckle tracking system, which shows circumferential and longitudinal LV dyssynchrony and residual endocardial contractility, may thus have clinical significance for CRT patients.

  16. Comparison of two ordinal prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kattan, Michael W; Gerds, Thomas A

    2015-01-01

    system (i.e. old or new), such as the level of evidence for one or more factors included in the system or the general opinions of expert clinicians. However, given the major objective of estimating prognosis on an ordinal scale, we argue that the rival staging system candidates should be compared...... on their ability to predict outcome. We sought to outline an algorithm that would compare two rival ordinal systems on their predictive ability. RESULTS: We devised an algorithm based largely on the concordance index, which is appropriate for comparing two models in their ability to rank observations. We...... demonstrate our algorithm with a prostate cancer staging system example. CONCLUSION: We have provided an algorithm for selecting the preferred staging system based on prognostic accuracy. It appears to be useful for the purpose of selecting between two ordinal prediction models....

  17. Prediction of core and lower extremity strains and sprains in collegiate football players: a preliminary study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkerson, Gary B; Giles, Jessica L; Seibel, Dustin K

    2012-01-01

    Poor core stability is believed to increase vulnerability to uncontrolled joint displacements throughout the kinetic chain between the foot and the lumbar spine. To assess the value of preparticipation measurements as predictors of core or lower extremity strains or sprains in collegiate football players. Cohort study. National Collegiate Athletic Association Division I Football Championship Subdivision football program. All team members who were present for a mandatory physical examination on the day before preseason practice sessions began (n = 83). Preparticipation administration of surveys to assess low back, knee, and ankle function; documentation of knee and ankle injury history; determination of body mass index; 4 different assessments of core muscle endurance; and measurement of step-test recovery heart rate. All injuries were documented throughout the preseason practice period and 11-game season. Receiver operating characteristic analysis and logistic regression analysis were used to identify dichotomized predictive factors that best discriminated injured from uninjured status. The 75th and 50th percentiles were evaluated as alternative cutpoints for dichotomization of injury predictors. Players with ≥2 of 3 potentially modifiable risk factors related to core function had 2 times greater risk for injury than those with football injury risk factors that can be identified on preparticipation screening. These predictors need to be assessed in a prospective manner with a larger sample of collegiate football players.

  18. Predictive analytics can support the ACO model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, Paul

    2012-04-01

    Predictive analytics can be used to rapidly spot hard-to-identify opportunities to better manage care--a key tool in accountable care. When considering analytics models, healthcare providers should: Make value-based care a priority and act on information from analytics models. Create a road map that includes achievable steps, rather than major endeavors. Set long-term expectations and recognize that the effectiveness of an analytics program takes time, unlike revenue cycle initiatives that may show a quick return.

  19. Predictive performance models and multiple task performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wickens, Christopher D.; Larish, Inge; Contorer, Aaron

    1989-01-01

    Five models that predict how performance of multiple tasks will interact in complex task scenarios are discussed. The models are shown in terms of the assumptions they make about human operator divided attention. The different assumptions about attention are then empirically validated in a multitask helicopter flight simulation. It is concluded from this simulation that the most important assumption relates to the coding of demand level of different component tasks.

  20. Model Predictive Control of Sewer Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Einar B.; Herbertsson, Hannes R.; Niemann, Henrik

    2016-01-01

    The developments in solutions for management of urban drainage are of vital importance, as the amount of sewer water from urban areas continues to increase due to the increase of the world’s population and the change in the climate conditions. How a sewer network is structured, monitored and cont...... benchmark model. Due to the inherent constraints the applied approach is based on Model Predictive Control....

  1. Distributed Model Predictive Control via Dual Decomposition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Biegel, Benjamin; Stoustrup, Jakob; Andersen, Palle

    2014-01-01

    This chapter presents dual decomposition as a means to coordinate a number of subsystems coupled by state and input constraints. Each subsystem is equipped with a local model predictive controller while a centralized entity manages the subsystems via prices associated with the coupling constraints...

  2. Autonomy and social norms in a three factor grief model predicting perinatal grief in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Lisa R; Lee, Jerry W

    2014-01-01

    Perinatal grief following stillbirth is a significant social and mental health burden. We examined associations among the following latent variables: autonomy, social norms, self-despair, strained coping, and acute grief-among poor, rural women in India who experienced stillbirth. A structural equation model was built and tested using quantitative data from 347 women of reproductive age in Chhattisgarh. Maternal acceptance of traditional social norms worsens self-despair and strained coping, and increases the autonomy granted to women. Greater autonomy increases acute grief. Greater despair and acute grief increase strained coping. Social and cultural factors were found to predict perinatal grief in India.

  3. A stepwise model to predict monthly streamflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmood Al-Juboori, Anas; Guven, Aytac

    2016-12-01

    In this study, a stepwise model empowered with genetic programming is developed to predict the monthly flows of Hurman River in Turkey and Diyalah and Lesser Zab Rivers in Iraq. The model divides the monthly flow data to twelve intervals representing the number of months in a year. The flow of a month, t is considered as a function of the antecedent month's flow (t - 1) and it is predicted by multiplying the antecedent monthly flow by a constant value called K. The optimum value of K is obtained by a stepwise procedure which employs Gene Expression Programming (GEP) and Nonlinear Generalized Reduced Gradient Optimization (NGRGO) as alternative to traditional nonlinear regression technique. The degree of determination and root mean squared error are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed models. The results of the proposed model are compared with the conventional Markovian and Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models based on observed monthly flow data. The comparison results based on five different statistic measures show that the proposed stepwise model performed better than Markovian model and ARIMA model. The R2 values of the proposed model range between 0.81 and 0.92 for the three rivers in this study.

  4. EXPERIMENTAL TESTS OF VANADIUM STRENGTH MODELS AT HIGH PRESSURES AND STRAIN RATES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, H; Barton, N R; Becker, R C; Bernier, J V; Cavallo, R M; Lorenz, K T; Pollaine, S M; Remington, B A; Rudd, R E

    2010-03-02

    Experimental results showing significant reductions from classical in the Rayleigh-Taylor (RT) instability growth rate due to high pressure material strength or effective lattice viscosity in metal foils are presented. On the Omega Laser in the Laboratory for Laser Energetics, University of Rochester, target samples of polycrystalline vanadium are compressed and accelerated quasi-isentropically at {approx}1 Mbar pressures, while maintaining the samples in the solid-state. Comparison of the results with constitutive models for solid state strength under these conditions show that the measured RT growth is substantially lower than predictions using existing models that work well at low pressures and long time scales. High pressure, high strain rate data can be explained by the enhanced strength due to a phonon drag mechanism, creating a high effective lattice viscosity.

  5. Assessment of models predicting irradiation effects on tensile properties of reactor pressure vessel steels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pineau, L.; Landron, C.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, an analysis of tensile data acquired as part of the French Reactor Vessel Surveillance Program (RVSP) is produced. This program contains amongst other mechanical tests, tensile tests at 20 and 300 C degrees on non irradiated base metals and at 300 C degrees only on irradiated materials. It shows that irradiation leads to an increase in the yield strength and a decrease in the strain hardening. The exploitation of tensile results has permitted to express a relationship between yield strength increase measured and fluence value, as well as between strain hardening decrease and yield strength evolution. The use of these relations in the aim at predicting evolution of tensile properties with irradiation has then permitted to propose a methodology to model entire stress-strain curves of irradiated base metal only based on the non irradiated stress-strain curve. These predictions were successfully compared with an experimental standard case. (authors)

  6. Robust human body model injury prediction in simulated side impact crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golman, Adam J; Danelson, Kerry A; Stitzel, Joel D

    2016-01-01

    This study developed a parametric methodology to robustly predict occupant injuries sustained in real-world crashes using a finite element (FE) human body model (HBM). One hundred and twenty near-side impact motor vehicle crashes were simulated over a range of parameters using a Toyota RAV4 (bullet vehicle), Ford Taurus (struck vehicle) FE models and a validated human body model (HBM) Total HUman Model for Safety (THUMS). Three bullet vehicle crash parameters (speed, location and angle) and two occupant parameters (seat position and age) were varied using a Latin hypercube design of Experiments. Four injury metrics (head injury criterion, half deflection, thoracic trauma index and pelvic force) were used to calculate injury risk. Rib fracture prediction and lung strain metrics were also analysed. As hypothesized, bullet speed had the greatest effect on each injury measure. Injury risk was reduced when bullet location was further from the B-pillar or when the bullet angle was more oblique. Age had strong correlation to rib fractures frequency and lung strain severity. The injuries from a real-world crash were predicted using two different methods by (1) subsampling the injury predictors from the 12 best crush profile matching simulations and (2) using regression models. Both injury prediction methods successfully predicted the case occupant's low risk for pelvic injury, high risk for thoracic injury, rib fractures and high lung strains with tight confidence intervals. This parametric methodology was successfully used to explore crash parameter interactions and to robustly predict real-world injuries.

  7. Global analysis of multi-strains SIS, SIR and MSIR epidemic models

    OpenAIRE

    Bichara , Derdei; Iggidr , Abderrahman; Sallet , Gauthier

    2014-01-01

    International audience; We consider SIS, SIR and MSIR models with standard mass action and varying population, with $n$ different pathogen strains of an infectious disease. We also consider the same models with vertical transmission. We prove that under generic conditions a competitive exclusion principle holds. To each strain a basic reproduction ratio can be associated. It corresponds to the case where only this strain exists. The basic reproduction ratio of the complete system is the maxim...

  8. Competitive exclusion principle for SIS and SIR models with n strains

    OpenAIRE

    Bichara , Derdei; Iggidr , Abderrahman; Sallet , Gauthier

    2012-01-01

    We consider SIS and SIR models with standard mass action and varying population, with $n$ different pathogen strains of an infectious disease. We also consider the same models with vertical transmission. We prove that under generic conditions a competitive exclusion principle holds. To each strain a basic reproduction ratio can be associated. It corresponds to the case where only this strain exists. The basic reproduction ratio of the complete system is the maximum of each individual basic re...

  9. Electrostatic ion thrusters - towards predictive modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kalentev, O.; Matyash, K.; Duras, J.; Lueskow, K.F.; Schneider, R. [Ernst-Moritz-Arndt Universitaet Greifswald, D-17489 (Germany); Koch, N. [Technische Hochschule Nuernberg Georg Simon Ohm, Kesslerplatz 12, D-90489 Nuernberg (Germany); Schirra, M. [Thales Electronic Systems GmbH, Soeflinger Strasse 100, D-89077 Ulm (Germany)

    2014-02-15

    The development of electrostatic ion thrusters so far has mainly been based on empirical and qualitative know-how, and on evolutionary iteration steps. This resulted in considerable effort regarding prototype design, construction and testing and therefore in significant development and qualification costs and high time demands. For future developments it is anticipated to implement simulation tools which allow for quantitative prediction of ion thruster performance, long-term behavior and space craft interaction prior to hardware design and construction. Based on integrated numerical models combining self-consistent kinetic plasma models with plasma-wall interaction modules a new quality in the description of electrostatic thrusters can be reached. These open the perspective for predictive modeling in this field. This paper reviews the application of a set of predictive numerical modeling tools on an ion thruster model of the HEMP-T (High Efficiency Multi-stage Plasma Thruster) type patented by Thales Electron Devices GmbH. (copyright 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim) (orig.)

  10. An Intelligent Model for Stock Market Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    IbrahimM. Hamed

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an intelligent model for stock market signal prediction using Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP Artificial Neural Networks (ANN. Blind source separation technique, from signal processing, is integrated with the learning phase of the constructed baseline MLP ANN to overcome the problems of prediction accuracy and lack of generalization. Kullback Leibler Divergence (KLD is used, as a learning algorithm, because it converges fast and provides generalization in the learning mechanism. Both accuracy and efficiency of the proposed model were confirmed through the Microsoft stock, from wall-street market, and various data sets, from different sectors of the Egyptian stock market. In addition, sensitivity analysis was conducted on the various parameters of the model to ensure the coverage of the generalization issue. Finally, statistical significance was examined using ANOVA test.

  11. Predictive Models, How good are they?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kasch, Helge

    The WAD grading system has been used for more than 20 years by now. It has shown long-term viability, but with strengths and limitations. New bio-psychosocial assessment of the acute whiplash injured subject may provide better prediction of long-term disability and pain. Furthermore, the emerging......-up. It is important to obtain prospective identification of the relevant risk underreported disability could, if we were able to expose these hidden “risk-factors” during our consultations, provide us with better predictive models. New data from large clinical studies will present exciting new genetic risk markers...

  12. Analytical modeling of subthreshold current and subthreshold swing of Gaussian-doped strained-Si-on-insulator MOSFETs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rawat, Gopal; Kumar, Sanjay; Goel, Ekta; Kumar, Mirgender; Jit, S.; Dubey, Sarvesh

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the analytical modeling of subthreshold current and subthreshold swing of short-channel fully-depleted (FD) strained-Si-on-insulator (SSOI) MOSFETs having vertical Gaussian-like doping profile in the channel. The subthreshold current and subthreshold swing have been derived using the parabolic approximation method. In addition to the effect of strain on silicon layer, various other device parameters such as channel length (L), gate-oxide thickness (t ox ), strained-Si channel thickness (t s-Si ), peak doping concentration (N P ), project range (R p ) and straggle (σ p ) of the Gaussian profile have been considered while predicting the device characteristics. The present work may help to overcome the degradation in subthreshold characteristics with strain engineering. These subthreshold current and swing models provide valuable information for strained-Si MOSFET design. Accuracy of the proposed models is verified using the commercially available ATLAS™, a two-dimensional (2D) device simulator from SILVACO. (semiconductor devices)

  13. Phenomenological approach to precise creep life prediction by means of quantitative evaluation of strain rate acceleration in secondary creep

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, Hiroyuki; Miyano, Takaya

    2010-01-01

    A method of creep life prediction by means of Strain-Acceleration-Parameter (SAP), α, is presented. The authors show that the shape of creep curve can be characterized by SAP that reflects magnitude of strain-rate change in secondary creep. The SAP-values, α are evaluated on magnesium-aluminium solution hardened alloys. Reconstruction of creep curves by combinations of SAP and minimum-creep rates are successfully performed, and the curves reasonably agree with experiments. The advantage of the proposed method is that the required parameters evaluated from individual creep curves are directly connected with the minimum creep rate. The predicted times-to-failure agree well with that obtained by experiments, and possibility of precise life time prediction by SAP is pronounced.

  14. NONLINEAR MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL OF CHEMICAL PROCESSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SILVA R. G.

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available A new algorithm for model predictive control is presented. The algorithm utilizes a simultaneous solution and optimization strategy to solve the model's differential equations. The equations are discretized by equidistant collocation, and along with the algebraic model equations are included as constraints in a nonlinear programming (NLP problem. This algorithm is compared with the algorithm that uses orthogonal collocation on finite elements. The equidistant collocation algorithm results in simpler equations, providing a decrease in computation time for the control moves. Simulation results are presented and show a satisfactory performance of this algorithm.

  15. A statistical model for predicting muscle performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byerly, Diane Leslie De Caix

    The objective of these studies was to develop a capability for predicting muscle performance and fatigue to be utilized for both space- and ground-based applications. To develop this predictive model, healthy test subjects performed a defined, repetitive dynamic exercise to failure using a Lordex spinal machine. Throughout the exercise, surface electromyography (SEMG) data were collected from the erector spinae using a Mega Electronics ME3000 muscle tester and surface electrodes placed on both sides of the back muscle. These data were analyzed using a 5th order Autoregressive (AR) model and statistical regression analysis. It was determined that an AR derived parameter, the mean average magnitude of AR poles, significantly correlated with the maximum number of repetitions (designated Rmax) that a test subject was able to perform. Using the mean average magnitude of AR poles, a test subject's performance to failure could be predicted as early as the sixth repetition of the exercise. This predictive model has the potential to provide a basis for improving post-space flight recovery, monitoring muscle atrophy in astronauts and assessing the effectiveness of countermeasures, monitoring astronaut performance and fatigue during Extravehicular Activity (EVA) operations, providing pre-flight assessment of the ability of an EVA crewmember to perform a given task, improving the design of training protocols and simulations for strenuous International Space Station assembly EVA, and enabling EVA work task sequences to be planned enhancing astronaut performance and safety. Potential ground-based, medical applications of the predictive model include monitoring muscle deterioration and performance resulting from illness, establishing safety guidelines in the industry for repetitive tasks, monitoring the stages of rehabilitation for muscle-related injuries sustained in sports and accidents, and enhancing athletic performance through improved training protocols while reducing

  16. Damage assessment of low-cycle fatigue by crack growth prediction. Development of growth prediction model and its application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamaya, Masayuki; Kawakubo, Masahiro

    2012-01-01

    In this study, the fatigue damage was assumed to be equivalent to the crack initiation and its growth, and fatigue life was assessed by predicting the crack growth. First, a low-cycle fatigue test was conducted in air at room temperature under constant cyclic strain range of 1.2%. The crack initiation and change in crack size during the test were examined by replica investigation. It was found that a crack of 41.2 μm length was initiated almost at the beginning of the test. The identified crack growth rate was shown to correlate well with the strain intensity factor, whose physical meaning was discussed in this study. The fatigue life prediction model (equation) under constant strain range was derived by integrating the crack growth equation defined using the strain intensity factor, and the predicted fatigue lives were almost identical to those obtained by low-cycle fatigue tests. The change in crack depth predicted by the equation also agreed well with the experimental results. Based on the crack growth prediction model, it was shown that the crack size would be less than 0.1 mm even when the estimated fatigue damage exceeded the critical value of the design fatigue curve, in which a twenty-fold safety margin was used for the assessment. It was revealed that the effect of component size and surface roughness, which have been investigated empirically by fatigue tests, could be reasonably explained by considering the crack initiation and growth. Furthermore, the environmental effect on the fatigue life was shown to be brought about by the acceleration of crack growth. (author)

  17. Strain rate dependent tensile behavior of advanced high strength steels: Experiment and constitutive modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Ji-Hoon; Kim, Daeyong; Han, Heung Nam; Barlat, F.; Lee, Myoung-Gyu

    2013-01-01

    High strain rate tensile tests were conducted for three advanced high strength steels: DP780, DP980 and TRIP780. A high strain rate tensile test machine was used for applying the strain rate ranging from 0.1/s to 500/s. Details of the measured stress–strain responses were comparatively analyzed for the DP780 and TRIP780 steels which show similar microstructural feature and ultimate tensile strength, but different strengthening mechanisms. The experimental observations included: usual strain rate dependent plastic flow stress behavior in terms of the yield stress (YS), the ultimate tensile strength (UTS), the uniform elongation (UE) and the total elongation (TE) which were observed for the three materials. But, higher strain hardening rate at early plastic strain under quasi-static condition than that of some increased strain rates was featured for TRIP780 steel, which might result from more active transformation during deformation with lower velocity. The uniform elongation that explains the onset of instability and the total elongation were larger in case of TRIP steel than the DP steel for the whole strain rate range, but interestingly the fracture strain measured by the reduction of area (RA) method showed that the TRIP steel has lower values than DP steel. The fractographs using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) at the fractured surfaces were analyzed to relate measured fracture strain and the microstructural difference of the two materials during the process of fracture under various strain rates. Finally, constitutive modeling for the plastic flow stresses under various strain rates was provided in this study. The proposed constitutive law could represent both Hollomon-like and Voce-like hardening laws and the ratio between the two hardening types was efficiently controlled as a function of strain rate. The new strength model was validated successfully under various strain rates for several grades of steels such as mild steels, DP780, TRIP780, DP980 steels.

  18. Finite element prediction of elastic strains in beryllium compact tension specimens

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guerra, F.; Varma, R.; Bourke, M.

    1997-01-01

    Three-dimensional finite element (FE) calculations using ABAQUS version 5.5.9 were compared to neutron diffraction measurements of a loaded, pre-cracked beryllium compact tension (CT) specimens. The objective was to validate the FE results with the experimental open-quotes elastic strainclose quotes measurements. Then the FE calculations could be used to study residual stress and other aspects of these problems in the unloaded state and the crack tip stress in the loaded state which is hard to measure experimentally. A graded FE mesh was focused on the regions containing high strain gradients, the smallest elements were approximately 0.5 mm x 0.5 mm x 0.4 mm. A standard 20-node brick element model was complemented by a model with 1/4-point elements at the crack tip. Since the neutron diffraction measurements provided a volume average of approximately a cube of edge 3.0 mm, various averaging (or integrating) techniques were used on the FE results. Several integration schemes showed good agreement with the experimental results

  19. Sensitivity of the polypropylene to the strain rate: experiments and modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdul-Latif, A.; Aboura, Z.; Mosleh, L.

    2002-01-01

    Full text.The main goal of this work is first to evaluate experimentally the strain rate dependent deformation of the polypropylene under tensile load; and secondly is to propose a model capable to appropriately describe the mechanical behavior of this material and especially its sensitivity to the strain rate. Several experimental tensile tests are performed at different quasi-static strain rates in the range of 10 -5 s -1 to 10 -1 s -1 . In addition to some relaxation tests are also conducted introducing the strain rate jumping state during testing. Within the framework of elastoviscoplasticity, a phenomenological model is developed for describing the non-linear mechanical behavior of the material under uniaxial loading paths. With the small strain assumption, the sensitivity of the polypropylene to the strain rate being of particular interest in this work, is accordingly taken into account. As a matter of fact, since this model is based on internal state variables, we assume thus that the material sensitivity to the strain rate is governed by the kinematic hardening variable notably its modulus and the accumulated viscoplastic strain. As far as the elastic behavior is concerned, it is noticed that such a behavior is slightly influenced by the employed strain rate rage. For this reason, the elastic behavior is classically determined, i.e. without coupling with the strain rate dependent deformation. It is obvious that the inelastic behavior of the used material is thoroughly dictated by the applied strain rate. Hence, the model parameters are well calibrated utilizing several experimental databases for different strain rates (10 -5 s -1 to 10 -1 s -1 ). Actually, among these experimental results, some experiments related to the relaxation phenomenon and strain rate jumping during testing (increasing or decreasing) are also used in order to more perfect the model parameters identification. To validate the calibrated model parameters, simulation tests are achieved

  20. Prediction models : the right tool for the right problem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kappen, Teus H.; Peelen, Linda M.

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Perioperative prediction models can help to improve personalized patient care by providing individual risk predictions to both patients and providers. However, the scientific literature on prediction model development and validation can be quite technical and challenging to

  1. Constitutive modeling of polycarbonate over a wide range of strain rates and temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Haitao; Zhou, Huamin; Huang, Zhigao; Zhang, Yun; Zhao, Xiaoxuan

    2017-02-01

    The mechanical behavior of polycarbonate was experimentally investigated over a wide range of strain rates (10^{-4} to 5× 103 s^{-1}) and temperatures (293 to 353 K). Compression tests under these conditions were performed using a SHIMADZU universal testing machine and a split Hopkinson pressure bar. Falling weight impact testing was carried out on an Instron Dynatup 9200 drop tower system. The rate- and temperature-dependent deformation behavior of polycarbonate was discussed in detail. Dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA) tests were utilized to observe the glass (α ) transition and the secondary (β ) transition of polycarbonate. The DMA results indicate that the α and β transitions have a dramatic influence on the mechanical behavior of polycarbonate. The decompose/shift/reconstruct (DSR) method was utilized to decompose the storage modulus into the α and β components and extrapolate the entire modulus, the α-component modulus and the β-component modulus. Based on three previous models, namely, Mulliken-Boyce, G'Sell-Jonas and DSGZ, an adiabatic model is proposed to predict the mechanical behavior of polycarbonate. The model considers the contributions of both the α and β transitions to the mechanical behavior, and it has been implemented in ABAQUS/Explicit through a user material subroutine VUMAT. The model predictions are proven to essentially coincide with the experimental results during compression testing and falling weight impact testing.

  2. Simulation of crack propagation in steel plate with strain softening model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chan, O.B.; Elwi, A.E.; Grondin, G.Y.

    2006-05-15

    A new material model for simulating the fracture behaviour of structural steel was presented. Recent research on crack initiation and continuum damage mechanics was presented. A modified continuum damage model was also evaluated. Strain softening elements were then used to simulate material cracks in a steel structure. The analysis then compared load versus displacement and load versus clip-gauge displacement curves from various different experimental and numerical studies. A finite element analysis technique was used to simulate the fracture behaviour of 3-points bending specimens. Results of the analysis showed that the model predicted 90 per cent of the load and stress intensity factor at fracture initiation. A BE 365 electric shovel boom was used in the study to simulate fracture behaviour. Coupon test specimens were used to validate analysis predictions. It was concluded that the model was able to reduce the stiffness of the boom when the softening element reached yield strength limits during fracture initiation. 29 refs., 12 tabs., 58 figs.

  3. Neuro-fuzzy modeling in bankruptcy prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlachos D.

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available For the past 30 years the problem of bankruptcy prediction had been thoroughly studied. From the paper of Altman in 1968 to the recent papers in the '90s, the progress of prediction accuracy was not satisfactory. This paper investigates an alternative modeling of the system (firm, combining neural networks and fuzzy controllers, i.e. using neuro-fuzzy models. Classical modeling is based on mathematical models that describe the behavior of the firm under consideration. The main idea of fuzzy control, on the other hand, is to build a model of a human control expert who is capable of controlling the process without thinking in a mathematical model. This control expert specifies his control action in the form of linguistic rules. These control rules are translated into the framework of fuzzy set theory providing a calculus, which can stimulate the behavior of the control expert and enhance its performance. The accuracy of the model is studied using datasets from previous research papers.

  4. Genome-scale metabolic models as platforms for strain design and biological discovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mienda, Bashir Sajo

    2017-07-01

    Genome-scale metabolic models (GEMs) have been developed and used in guiding systems' metabolic engineering strategies for strain design and development. This strategy has been used in fermentative production of bio-based industrial chemicals and fuels from alternative carbon sources. However, computer-aided hypotheses building using established algorithms and software platforms for biological discovery can be integrated into the pipeline for strain design strategy to create superior strains of microorganisms for targeted biosynthetic goals. Here, I described an integrated workflow strategy using GEMs for strain design and biological discovery. Specific case studies of strain design and biological discovery using Escherichia coli genome-scale model are presented and discussed. The integrated workflow presented herein, when applied carefully would help guide future design strategies for high-performance microbial strains that have existing and forthcoming genome-scale metabolic models.

  5. Diverging strains near threshold: Breakdown of the elastic description of a charge density wave model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mungan, M.; Coppersmith, S.; Vinokur, V.M.

    1999-01-01

    We analyze the strains near threshold in 1-d charge density wave models at zero temperature and strong pinning. We show that in these models local strains diverge near the depinning threshold and characterize the scaling behavior of the phenomenon. This helps quantify when the underlying elastic description breaks down and plastic effects have to be included

  6. Report on an Assessment of the Application of EPP Results from the Strain Limit Evaluation Procedure to the Prediction of Cyclic Life Based on the SMT Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jetter, R. I. [R. I. Jetter Consulting, Pebble Beach, CA (United States); Messner, M. C. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Sham, T. -L. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Wang, Y. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2017-08-01

    The goal of the proposed integrated Elastic Perfectly-Plastic (EPP) and Simplified Model Test (SMT) methodology is to incorporate an SMT data based approach for creep-fatigue damage evaluation into the EPP methodology to avoid the separate evaluation of creep and fatigue damage and eliminate the requirement for stress classification in current methods; thus greatly simplifying evaluation of elevated temperature cyclic service. This methodology should minimize over-conservatism while properly accounting for localized defects and stress risers. To support the implementation of the proposed methodology and to verify the applicability of the code rules, analytical studies and evaluation of thermomechanical test results continued in FY17. This report presents the results of those studies. An EPP strain limits methodology assessment was based on recent two-bar thermal ratcheting test results on 316H stainless steel in the temperature range of 405 to 7050C. Strain range predictions from the EPP evaluation of the two-bar tests were also evaluated and compared with the experimental results. The role of sustained primary loading on cyclic life was assessed using the results of pressurized SMT data from tests on Alloy 617 at 9500C. A viscoplastic material model was used in an analytic simulation of two-bar tests to compare with EPP strain limits assessments using isochronous stress strain curves that are consistent with the viscoplastic material model. A finite element model of a prior 304H stainless steel Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) nozzle-to-sphere test was developed and used for an EPP strain limits and creep-fatigue code case damage evaluations. A theoretical treatment of a recurring issue with convergence criteria for plastic shakedown illustrated the role of computer machine precision in EPP calculations.

  7. Predictive Models for Carcinogenicity and Mutagenicity ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mutagenicity and carcinogenicity are endpoints of major environmental and regulatory concern. These endpoints are also important targets for development of alternative methods for screening and prediction due to the large number of chemicals of potential concern and the tremendous cost (in time, money, animals) of rodent carcinogenicity bioassays. Both mutagenicity and carcinogenicity involve complex, cellular processes that are only partially understood. Advances in technologies and generation of new data will permit a much deeper understanding. In silico methods for predicting mutagenicity and rodent carcinogenicity based on chemical structural features, along with current mutagenicity and carcinogenicity data sets, have performed well for local prediction (i.e., within specific chemical classes), but are less successful for global prediction (i.e., for a broad range of chemicals). The predictivity of in silico methods can be improved by improving the quality of the data base and endpoints used for modelling. In particular, in vitro assays for clastogenicity need to be improved to reduce false positives (relative to rodent carcinogenicity) and to detect compounds that do not interact directly with DNA or have epigenetic activities. New assays emerging to complement or replace some of the standard assays include VitotoxTM, GreenScreenGC, and RadarScreen. The needs of industry and regulators to assess thousands of compounds necessitate the development of high-t

  8. Strain Echocardiography Improves Risk Prediction of Ventricular Arrhythmias After Myocardial Infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haugaa, Kristina H; Grenne, Bjørnar L; Eek, Christian H

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that strain echocardiography might improve arrhythmic risk stratification in patients after myocardial infarction (MI).......The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that strain echocardiography might improve arrhythmic risk stratification in patients after myocardial infarction (MI)....

  9. A constitutive framework for modelling thin incompressible viscoelastic materials under plane stress in the finite strain regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroon, M.

    2011-11-01

    Rubbers and soft biological tissues may undergo large deformations and are also viscoelastic. The formulation of constitutive models for these materials poses special challenges. In several applications, especially in biomechanics, these materials are also relatively thin, implying that in-plane stresses dominate and that plane stress may therefore be assumed. In the present paper, a constitutive model for viscoelastic materials in the finite strain regime and under the assumption of plane stress is proposed. It is assumed that the relaxation behaviour in the direction of plane stress can be treated separately, which makes it possible to formulate evolution laws for the plastic strains on explicit form at the same time as incompressibility is fulfilled. Experimental results from biomechanics (dynamic inflation of dog aorta) and rubber mechanics (biaxial stretching of rubber sheets) were used to assess the proposed model. The assessment clearly indicates that the model is fully able to predict the experimental outcome for these types of material.

  10. Finite strain formulation of viscoelastic damage model for simulation of fabric reinforced polymers under dynamic loading

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Treutenaere S.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The use of fabric reinforced polymers in the automotive industry is growing significantly. The high specific stiffness and strength, the ease of shaping as well as the great impact performance of these materials widely encourage their diffusion. The present model increases the predictability of explicit finite element analysis and push the boundaries of the ongoing phenomenological model. Carbon fibre composites made up various preforms were tested by applying different mechanical load up to dynamic loading. This experimental campaign highlighted the physical mechanisms affecting the initial mechanical properties, namely intra- and interlaminar matrix damage, viscoelasticty and fibre failure. The intralaminar behaviour model is based on the explicit formulation of the matrix damage model developed by the ONERA as the given damage formulation correlates with the experimental observation. Coupling with a Maxwell-Wiechert model, the viscoelasticity is included without losing the direct explicit formulation. Additionally, the model is formulated under a total Lagrangian scheme in order to maintain consistency for finite strain. Thus, the material frame-indifference as well as anisotropy are ensured. This allows reorientation of fibres to be taken into account particularly for in-plane shear loading. Moreover, fall within the framework of the total Lagrangian scheme greatly makes the parameter identification easier, as based on the initial configuration. This intralaminar model thus relies upon a physical description of the behaviour of fabric composites and the numerical simulations show a good correlation with the experimental results.

  11. Determination of remodeling parameters for a strain-adaptive finite element model of the distal ulna.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neuert, Mark A C; Dunning, Cynthia E

    2013-09-01

    Strain energy-based adaptive material models are used to predict bone resorption resulting from stress shielding induced by prosthetic joint implants. Generally, such models are governed by two key parameters: a homeostatic strain-energy state (K) and a threshold deviation from this state required to initiate bone reformation (s). A refinement procedure has been performed to estimate these parameters in the femur and glenoid; this study investigates the specific influences of these parameters on resulting density distributions in the distal ulna. A finite element model of a human ulna was created using micro-computed tomography (µCT) data, initialized to a homogeneous density distribution, and subjected to approximate in vivo loading. Values for K and s were tested, and the resulting steady-state density distribution compared with values derived from µCT images. The sensitivity of these parameters to initial conditions was examined by altering the initial homogeneous density value. The refined model parameters selected were then applied to six additional human ulnae to determine their performance across individuals. Model accuracy using the refined parameters was found to be comparable with that found in previous studies of the glenoid and femur, and gross bone structures, such as the cortical shell and medullary canal, were reproduced. The model was found to be insensitive to initial conditions; however, a fair degree of variation was observed between the six specimens. This work represents an important contribution to the study of changes in load transfer in the distal ulna following the implementation of commercial orthopedic implants.

  12. Validated predictive modelling of the environmental resistome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amos, Gregory C A; Gozzard, Emma; Carter, Charlotte E; Mead, Andrew; Bowes, Mike J; Hawkey, Peter M; Zhang, Lihong; Singer, Andrew C; Gaze, William H; Wellington, Elizabeth M H

    2015-06-01

    Multi-drug-resistant bacteria pose a significant threat to public health. The role of the environment in the overall rise in antibiotic-resistant infections and risk to humans is largely unknown. This study aimed to evaluate drivers of antibiotic-resistance levels across the River Thames catchment, model key biotic, spatial and chemical variables and produce predictive models for future risk assessment. Sediment samples from 13 sites across the River Thames basin were taken at four time points across 2011 and 2012. Samples were analysed for class 1 integron prevalence and enumeration of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant bacteria. Class 1 integron prevalence was validated as a molecular marker of antibiotic resistance; levels of resistance showed significant geospatial and temporal variation. The main explanatory variables of resistance levels at each sample site were the number, proximity, size and type of surrounding wastewater-treatment plants. Model 1 revealed treatment plants accounted for 49.5% of the variance in resistance levels. Other contributing factors were extent of different surrounding land cover types (for example, Neutral Grassland), temporal patterns and prior rainfall; when modelling all variables the resulting model (Model 2) could explain 82.9% of variations in resistance levels in the whole catchment. Chemical analyses correlated with key indicators of treatment plant effluent and a model (Model 3) was generated based on water quality parameters (contaminant and macro- and micro-nutrient levels). Model 2 was beta tested on independent sites and explained over 78% of the variation in integron prevalence showing a significant predictive ability. We believe all models in this study are highly useful tools for informing and prioritising mitigation strategies to reduce the environmental resistome.

  13. A nonlocal strain gradient model for dynamic deformation of orthotropic viscoelastic graphene sheets under time harmonic thermal load

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radwan, Ahmed F.; Sobhy, Mohammed

    2018-06-01

    This work presents a nonlocal strain gradient theory for the dynamic deformation response of a single-layered graphene sheet (SLGS) on a viscoelastic foundation and subjected to a time harmonic thermal load for various boundary conditions. Material of graphene sheets is presumed to be orthotropic and viscoelastic. The viscoelastic foundation is modeled as Kelvin-Voigt's pattern. Based on the two-unknown plate theory, the motion equations are obtained from the dynamic version of the virtual work principle. The nonlocal strain gradient theory is established from Eringen nonlocal and strain gradient theories, therefore, it contains two material scale parameters, which are nonlocal parameter and gradient coefficient. These scale parameters have two different effects on the graphene sheets. The obtained deflection is compared with that predicted in the literature. Additional numerical examples are introduced to illustrate the influences of the two length scale coefficients and other parameters on the dynamic deformation of the viscoelastic graphene sheets.

  14. Nonlinear model predictive control theory and algorithms

    CERN Document Server

    Grüne, Lars

    2017-01-01

    This book offers readers a thorough and rigorous introduction to nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) for discrete-time and sampled-data systems. NMPC schemes with and without stabilizing terminal constraints are detailed, and intuitive examples illustrate the performance of different NMPC variants. NMPC is interpreted as an approximation of infinite-horizon optimal control so that important properties like closed-loop stability, inverse optimality and suboptimality can be derived in a uniform manner. These results are complemented by discussions of feasibility and robustness. An introduction to nonlinear optimal control algorithms yields essential insights into how the nonlinear optimization routine—the core of any nonlinear model predictive controller—works. Accompanying software in MATLAB® and C++ (downloadable from extras.springer.com/), together with an explanatory appendix in the book itself, enables readers to perform computer experiments exploring the possibilities and limitations of NMPC. T...

  15. Baryogenesis model predicting antimatter in the Universe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirilova, D.

    2003-01-01

    Cosmic ray and gamma-ray data do not rule out antimatter domains in the Universe, separated at distances bigger than 10 Mpc from us. Hence, it is interesting to analyze the possible generation of vast antimatter structures during the early Universe evolution. We discuss a SUSY-condensate baryogenesis model, predicting large separated regions of matter and antimatter. The model provides generation of the small locally observed baryon asymmetry for a natural initial conditions, it predicts vast antimatter domains, separated from the matter ones by baryonically empty voids. The characteristic scale of antimatter regions and their distance from the matter ones is in accordance with observational constraints from cosmic ray, gamma-ray and cosmic microwave background anisotropy data

  16. Modelling plastic deformation of metals over a wide range of strain rates using irreversible thermodynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang Mingxin; Rivera-Diaz-del-Castillo, Pedro E J; Zwaag, Sybrand van der; Bouaziz, Olivier

    2009-01-01

    Based on the theory of irreversible thermodynamics, the present work proposes a dislocation-based model to describe the plastic deformation of FCC metals over wide ranges of strain rates. The stress-strain behaviour and the evolution of the average dislocation density are derived. It is found that there is a transitional strain rate (∼ 10 4 s -1 ) over which the phonon drag effects appear, resulting in a significant increase in the flow stress and the average dislocation density. The model is applied to pure Cu deformed at room temperature and at strain rates ranging from 10 -5 to 10 6 s -1 showing good agreement with experimental results.

  17. Finding Furfural Hydrogenation Catalysts via Predictive Modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Strassberger, Zea; Mooijman, Maurice; Ruijter, Eelco; Alberts, Albert H; Maldonado, Ana G; Orru, Romano V A; Rothenberg, Gadi

    2010-01-01

    Abstract We combine multicomponent reactions, catalytic performance studies and predictive modelling to find transfer hydrogenation catalysts. An initial set of 18 ruthenium-carbene complexes were synthesized and screened in the transfer hydrogenation of furfural to furfurol with isopropyl alcohol complexes gave varied yields, from 62% up to >99.9%, with no obvious structure/activity correlations. Control experiments proved that the carbene ligand remains coordinated to the ruthenium centre t...

  18. Predictive Modeling in Actinide Chemistry and Catalysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Ping [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-05-16

    These are slides from a presentation on predictive modeling in actinide chemistry and catalysis. The following topics are covered in these slides: Structures, bonding, and reactivity (bonding can be quantified by optical probes and theory, and electronic structures and reaction mechanisms of actinide complexes); Magnetic resonance properties (transition metal catalysts with multi-nuclear centers, and NMR/EPR parameters); Moving to more complex systems (surface chemistry of nanomaterials, and interactions of ligands with nanoparticles); Path forward and conclusions.

  19. Tectonic predictions with mantle convection models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coltice, Nicolas; Shephard, Grace E.

    2018-04-01

    Over the past 15 yr, numerical models of convection in Earth's mantle have made a leap forward: they can now produce self-consistent plate-like behaviour at the surface together with deep mantle circulation. These digital tools provide a new window into the intimate connections between plate tectonics and mantle dynamics, and can therefore be used for tectonic predictions, in principle. This contribution explores this assumption. First, initial conditions at 30, 20, 10 and 0 Ma are generated by driving a convective flow with imposed plate velocities at the surface. We then compute instantaneous mantle flows in response to the guessed temperature fields without imposing any boundary conditions. Plate boundaries self-consistently emerge at correct locations with respect to reconstructions, except for small plates close to subduction zones. As already observed for other types of instantaneous flow calculations, the structure of the top boundary layer and upper-mantle slab is the dominant character that leads to accurate predictions of surface velocities. Perturbations of the rheological parameters have little impact on the resulting surface velocities. We then compute fully dynamic model evolution from 30 and 10 to 0 Ma, without imposing plate boundaries or plate velocities. Contrary to instantaneous calculations, errors in kinematic predictions are substantial, although the plate layout and kinematics in several areas remain consistent with the expectations for the Earth. For these calculations, varying the rheological parameters makes a difference for plate boundary evolution. Also, identified errors in initial conditions contribute to first-order kinematic errors. This experiment shows that the tectonic predictions of dynamic models over 10 My are highly sensitive to uncertainties of rheological parameters and initial temperature field in comparison to instantaneous flow calculations. Indeed, the initial conditions and the rheological parameters can be good enough

  20. Breast cancer risks and risk prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Christoph; Fischer, Christine

    2015-02-01

    BRCA1/2 mutation carriers have a considerably increased risk to develop breast and ovarian cancer. The personalized clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals depends on precise knowledge of the cancer risks. In this report, we give an overview of the present literature on empirical cancer risks, and we describe risk prediction models that are currently used for individual risk assessment in clinical practice. Cancer risks show large variability between studies. Breast cancer risks are at 40-87% for BRCA1 mutation carriers and 18-88% for BRCA2 mutation carriers. For ovarian cancer, the risk estimates are in the range of 22-65% for BRCA1 and 10-35% for BRCA2. The contralateral breast cancer risk is high (10-year risk after first cancer 27% for BRCA1 and 19% for BRCA2). Risk prediction models have been proposed to provide more individualized risk prediction, using additional knowledge on family history, mode of inheritance of major genes, and other genetic and non-genetic risk factors. User-friendly software tools have been developed that serve as basis for decision-making in family counseling units. In conclusion, further assessment of cancer risks and model validation is needed, ideally based on prospective cohort studies. To obtain such data, clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals should always be accompanied by standardized scientific documentation.

  1. A predictive model for dimensional errors in fused deposition modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stolfi, A.

    2015-01-01

    This work concerns the effect of deposition angle (a) and layer thickness (L) on the dimensional performance of FDM parts using a predictive model based on the geometrical description of the FDM filament profile. An experimental validation over the whole a range from 0° to 177° at 3° steps and two...... values of L (0.254 mm, 0.330 mm) was produced by comparing predicted values with external face-to-face measurements. After removing outliers, the results show that the developed two-parameter model can serve as tool for modeling the FDM dimensional behavior in a wide range of deposition angles....

  2. Two stage neural network modelling for robust model predictive control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patan, Krzysztof

    2018-01-01

    The paper proposes a novel robust model predictive control scheme realized by means of artificial neural networks. The neural networks are used twofold: to design the so-called fundamental model of a plant and to catch uncertainty associated with the plant model. In order to simplify the optimization process carried out within the framework of predictive control an instantaneous linearization is applied which renders it possible to define the optimization problem in the form of constrained quadratic programming. Stability of the proposed control system is also investigated by showing that a cost function is monotonically decreasing with respect to time. Derived robust model predictive control is tested and validated on the example of a pneumatic servomechanism working at different operating regimes. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Predicting extinction rates in stochastic epidemic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, Ira B; Billings, Lora; Dykman, Mark; Landsman, Alexandra

    2009-01-01

    We investigate the stochastic extinction processes in a class of epidemic models. Motivated by the process of natural disease extinction in epidemics, we examine the rate of extinction as a function of disease spread. We show that the effective entropic barrier for extinction in a susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemic model displays scaling with the distance to the bifurcation point, with an unusual critical exponent. We make a direct comparison between predictions and numerical simulations. We also consider the effect of non-Gaussian vaccine schedules, and show numerically how the extinction process may be enhanced when the vaccine schedules are Poisson distributed

  4. Predictive Modeling of the CDRA 4BMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coker, Robert F.; Knox, James C.

    2016-01-01

    As part of NASA's Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) program and the Life Support Systems Project (LSSP), fully predictive models of the Four Bed Molecular Sieve (4BMS) of the Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly (CDRA) on the International Space Station (ISS) are being developed. This virtual laboratory will be used to help reduce mass, power, and volume requirements for future missions. In this paper we describe current and planned modeling developments in the area of carbon dioxide removal to support future crewed Mars missions as well as the resolution of anomalies observed in the ISS CDRA.

  5. Accelerating early anti-tuberculosis drug discovery by creating mycobacterial indicator strains that predict mode of action

    KAUST Repository

    Boot, Maikel

    2018-04-13

    Due to the rise of drug resistant forms of tuberculosis there is an urgent need for novel antibiotics to effectively combat these cases and shorten treatment regimens. Recently, drug screens using whole cell analyses have been shown to be successful. However, current high-throughput screens focus mostly on stricto sensu life-death screening that give little qualitative information. In doing so, promising compound scaffolds or non-optimized compounds that fail to reach inhibitory concentrations are missed. To accelerate early TB drug discovery, we performed RNA sequencing on Mycobacterium tuberculosis and Mycobacterium marinum to map the stress responses that follow upon exposure to sub-inhibitory concentrations of antibiotics with known targets: ciprofloxacin, ethambutol, isoniazid, streptomycin and rifampicin. The resulting dataset comprises the first overview of transcriptional stress responses of mycobacteria to different antibiotics. We show that antibiotics can be distinguished based on their specific transcriptional stress fingerprint. Notably, this fingerprint was more distinctive in M. marinum. We decided to use this to our advantage and continue with this model organism. A selection of diverse antibiotic stress genes was used to construct stress reporters. In total, three functional reporters were constructed to respond to DNA damage, cell wall damage and ribosomal inhibition. Subsequently, these reporter strains were used to screen a small anti-TB compound library to predict the mode of action. In doing so, we could identify the putative mode of action for three novel compounds, which confirms our approach.

  6. Data Driven Economic Model Predictive Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masoud Kheradmandi

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This manuscript addresses the problem of data driven model based economic model predictive control (MPC design. To this end, first, a data-driven Lyapunov-based MPC is designed, and shown to be capable of stabilizing a system at an unstable equilibrium point. The data driven Lyapunov-based MPC utilizes a linear time invariant (LTI model cognizant of the fact that the training data, owing to the unstable nature of the equilibrium point, has to be obtained from closed-loop operation or experiments. Simulation results are first presented demonstrating closed-loop stability under the proposed data-driven Lyapunov-based MPC. The underlying data-driven model is then utilized as the basis to design an economic MPC. The economic improvements yielded by the proposed method are illustrated through simulations on a nonlinear chemical process system example.

  7. Finite element implementation of strain-hardening Drucker–Prager plasticity model with application to tunnel excavation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Liu

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a finite element implementation of a strain-hardening Drucker–Prager model and its application to tunnel excavation. The computational model was constructed based on the return mapping scheme, in which an elastic trial step was first executed, followed by plastic correction involving the Newton–Raphson method to return the predicted state of stresses to the supposed yield surface. By combining the plastic shear hardening rule and stress correction equations, the loading index for the strain-hardening Drucker–Prager model was solved. It is therefore possible to update the stresses, elastic and plastic strains, and slope of the yield locus at the end of each incremental step. As an illustrative example, an integration algorithm was incorporated into ABAQUS through the user subroutine UMAT to solve the tunnel excavation problem in strain-hardening Drucker–Prager rock formations. The obtained numerical results were found to be in excellent agreement with the available analytical solutions, thus indicating the validity and accuracy of the proposed UMAT code, as well as the finite element model.

  8. Job stress models for predicting burnout syndrome: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chirico, Francesco

    2016-01-01

    In Europe, the Council Directive 89/391 for improvement of workers' safety and health has emphasized the importance of addressing all occupational risk factors, and hence also psychosocial and organizational risk factors. Nevertheless, the construct of "work-related stress" elaborated from EU-OSHA is not totally corresponding with the "psychosocial" risk, that is a broader category of risk, comprising various and different psychosocial risk factors. The term "burnout", without any binding definition, tries to integrate symptoms as well as cause of the burnout process. In Europe, the most important methods developed for the work related stress risk assessment are based on the Cox's transactional model of job stress. Nevertheless, there are more specific models for predicting burnout syndrome. This literature review provides an overview of job burnout, highlighting the most important models of job burnout, such as the Job Strain, the Effort/Reward Imbalance and the Job Demands-Resources models. The difference between these models and the Cox's model of job stress is explored.

  9. Plant control using embedded predictive models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Godbole, S.S.; Gabler, W.E.; Eschbach, S.L.

    1990-01-01

    B and W recently undertook the design of an advanced light water reactor control system. A concept new to nuclear steam system (NSS) control was developed. The concept, which is called the Predictor-Corrector, uses mathematical models of portions of the controlled NSS to calculate, at various levels within the system, demand and control element position signals necessary to satisfy electrical demand. The models give the control system the ability to reduce overcooling and undercooling of the reactor coolant system during transients and upsets. Two types of mathematical models were developed for use in designing and testing the control system. One model was a conventional, comprehensive NSS model that responds to control system outputs and calculates the resultant changes in plant variables that are then used as inputs to the control system. Two other models, embedded in the control system, were less conventional, inverse models. These models accept as inputs plant variables, equipment states, and demand signals and predict plant operating conditions and control element states that will satisfy the demands. This paper reports preliminary results of closed-loop Reactor Coolant (RC) pump trip and normal load reduction testing of the advanced concept. Results of additional transient testing, and of open and closed loop stability analyses will be reported as they are available

  10. Global longitudinal strain predicts incident atrial fibrillation and stroke occurrence after acute myocardial infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Flemming Javier; Pedersen, Sune; Jensen, Jan Skov

    2016-01-01

    myocardial infarction (STEMI) treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention. Patients had an echocardiogram performed at a median of 2 days after their STEMI. The echocardiograms consisted of conventional measurements and myocardial strain analysis by speckle tracking from 3 apical projections...

  11. Ground Motion Prediction Models for Caucasus Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jorjiashvili, Nato; Godoladze, Tea; Tvaradze, Nino; Tumanova, Nino

    2016-04-01

    Ground motion prediction models (GMPMs) relate ground motion intensity measures to variables describing earthquake source, path, and site effects. Estimation of expected ground motion is a fundamental earthquake hazard assessment. The most commonly used parameter for attenuation relation is peak ground acceleration or spectral acceleration because this parameter gives useful information for Seismic Hazard Assessment. Since 2003 development of Georgian Digital Seismic Network has started. In this study new GMP models are obtained based on new data from Georgian seismic network and also from neighboring countries. Estimation of models is obtained by classical, statistical way, regression analysis. In this study site ground conditions are additionally considered because the same earthquake recorded at the same distance may cause different damage according to ground conditions. Empirical ground-motion prediction models (GMPMs) require adjustment to make them appropriate for site-specific scenarios. However, the process of making such adjustments remains a challenge. This work presents a holistic framework for the development of a peak ground acceleration (PGA) or spectral acceleration (SA) GMPE that is easily adjustable to different seismological conditions and does not suffer from the practical problems associated with adjustments in the response spectral domain.

  12. Modeling and Prediction of Krueger Device Noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Yueping; Burley, Casey L.; Thomas, Russell H.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents the development of a noise prediction model for aircraft Krueger flap devices that are considered as alternatives to leading edge slotted slats. The prediction model decomposes the total Krueger noise into four components, generated by the unsteady flows, respectively, in the cove under the pressure side surface of the Krueger, in the gap between the Krueger trailing edge and the main wing, around the brackets supporting the Krueger device, and around the cavity on the lower side of the main wing. For each noise component, the modeling follows a physics-based approach that aims at capturing the dominant noise-generating features in the flow and developing correlations between the noise and the flow parameters that control the noise generation processes. The far field noise is modeled using each of the four noise component's respective spectral functions, far field directivities, Mach number dependencies, component amplitudes, and other parametric trends. Preliminary validations are carried out by using small scale experimental data, and two applications are discussed; one for conventional aircraft and the other for advanced configurations. The former focuses on the parametric trends of Krueger noise on design parameters, while the latter reveals its importance in relation to other airframe noise components.

  13. Prediction of Chemical Function: Model Development and ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The United States Environmental Protection Agency’s Exposure Forecaster (ExpoCast) project is developing both statistical and mechanism-based computational models for predicting exposures to thousands of chemicals, including those in consumer products. The high-throughput (HT) screening-level exposures developed under ExpoCast can be combined with HT screening (HTS) bioactivity data for the risk-based prioritization of chemicals for further evaluation. The functional role (e.g. solvent, plasticizer, fragrance) that a chemical performs can drive both the types of products in which it is found and the concentration in which it is present and therefore impacting exposure potential. However, critical chemical use information (including functional role) is lacking for the majority of commercial chemicals for which exposure estimates are needed. A suite of machine-learning based models for classifying chemicals in terms of their likely functional roles in products based on structure were developed. This effort required collection, curation, and harmonization of publically-available data sources of chemical functional use information from government and industry bodies. Physicochemical and structure descriptor data were generated for chemicals with function data. Machine-learning classifier models for function were then built in a cross-validated manner from the descriptor/function data using the method of random forests. The models were applied to: 1) predict chemi

  14. Evaluating Predictive Models of Software Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciaschini, V.; Canaparo, M.; Ronchieri, E.; Salomoni, D.

    2014-06-01

    Applications from High Energy Physics scientific community are constantly growing and implemented by a large number of developers. This implies a strong churn on the code and an associated risk of faults, which is unavoidable as long as the software undergoes active evolution. However, the necessities of production systems run counter to this. Stability and predictability are of paramount importance; in addition, a short turn-around time for the defect discovery-correction-deployment cycle is required. A way to reconcile these opposite foci is to use a software quality model to obtain an approximation of the risk before releasing a program to only deliver software with a risk lower than an agreed threshold. In this article we evaluated two quality predictive models to identify the operational risk and the quality of some software products. We applied these models to the development history of several EMI packages with intent to discover the risk factor of each product and compare it with its real history. We attempted to determine if the models reasonably maps reality for the applications under evaluation, and finally we concluded suggesting directions for further studies.

  15. PREDICTION MODELS OF GRAIN YIELD AND CHARACTERIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Narciso Ysac Avila Serrano

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available With the objective to characterize the grain yield of five cowpea cultivars and to find linear regression models to predict it, a study was developed in La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico. A complete randomized blocks design was used. Simple and multivariate analyses of variance were carried out using the canonical variables to characterize the cultivars. The variables cluster per plant, pods per plant, pods per cluster, seeds weight per plant, seeds hectoliter weight, 100-seed weight, seeds length, seeds wide, seeds thickness, pods length, pods wide, pods weight, seeds per pods, and seeds weight per pods, showed significant differences (P≤ 0.05 among cultivars. Paceño and IT90K-277-2 cultivars showed the higher seeds weight per plant. The linear regression models showed correlation coefficients ≥0.92. In these models, the seeds weight per plant, pods per cluster, pods per plant, cluster per plant and pods length showed significant correlations (P≤ 0.05. In conclusion, the results showed that grain yield differ among cultivars and for its estimation, the prediction models showed determination coefficients highly dependable.

  16. Evaluating predictive models of software quality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciaschini, V; Canaparo, M; Ronchieri, E; Salomoni, D

    2014-01-01

    Applications from High Energy Physics scientific community are constantly growing and implemented by a large number of developers. This implies a strong churn on the code and an associated risk of faults, which is unavoidable as long as the software undergoes active evolution. However, the necessities of production systems run counter to this. Stability and predictability are of paramount importance; in addition, a short turn-around time for the defect discovery-correction-deployment cycle is required. A way to reconcile these opposite foci is to use a software quality model to obtain an approximation of the risk before releasing a program to only deliver software with a risk lower than an agreed threshold. In this article we evaluated two quality predictive models to identify the operational risk and the quality of some software products. We applied these models to the development history of several EMI packages with intent to discover the risk factor of each product and compare it with its real history. We attempted to determine if the models reasonably maps reality for the applications under evaluation, and finally we concluded suggesting directions for further studies.

  17. Gamma-Ray Pulsars Models and Predictions

    CERN Document Server

    Harding, A K

    2001-01-01

    Pulsed emission from gamma-ray pulsars originates inside the magnetosphere, from radiation by charged particles accelerated near the magnetic poles or in the outer gaps. In polar cap models, the high energy spectrum is cut off by magnetic pair production above an energy that is dependent on the local magnetic field strength. While most young pulsars with surface fields in the range B = 10^{12} - 10^{13} G are expected to have high energy cutoffs around several GeV, the gamma-ray spectra of old pulsars having lower surface fields may extend to 50 GeV. Although the gamma-ray emission of older pulsars is weaker, detecting pulsed emission at high energies from nearby sources would be an important confirmation of polar cap models. Outer gap models predict more gradual high-energy turnovers at around 10 GeV, but also predict an inverse Compton component extending to TeV energies. Detection of pulsed TeV emission, which would not survive attenuation at the polar caps, is thus an important test of outer gap models. N...

  18. Artificial Neural Network Model for Predicting Compressive

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salim T. Yousif

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available   Compressive strength of concrete is a commonly used criterion in evaluating concrete. Although testing of the compressive strength of concrete specimens is done routinely, it is performed on the 28th day after concrete placement. Therefore, strength estimation of concrete at early time is highly desirable. This study presents the effort in applying neural network-based system identification techniques to predict the compressive strength of concrete based on concrete mix proportions, maximum aggregate size (MAS, and slump of fresh concrete. Back-propagation neural networks model is successively developed, trained, and tested using actual data sets of concrete mix proportions gathered from literature.    The test of the model by un-used data within the range of input parameters shows that the maximum absolute error for model is about 20% and 88% of the output results has absolute errors less than 10%. The parametric study shows that water/cement ratio (w/c is the most significant factor  affecting the output of the model.     The results showed that neural networks has strong potential as a feasible tool for predicting compressive strength of concrete.

  19. Clinical Predictive Modeling Development and Deployment through FHIR Web Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalilia, Mohammed; Choi, Myung; Henderson, Amelia; Iyengar, Sneha; Braunstein, Mark; Sun, Jimeng

    2015-01-01

    Clinical predictive modeling involves two challenging tasks: model development and model deployment. In this paper we demonstrate a software architecture for developing and deploying clinical predictive models using web services via the Health Level 7 (HL7) Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR) standard. The services enable model development using electronic health records (EHRs) stored in OMOP CDM databases and model deployment for scoring individual patients through FHIR resources. The MIMIC2 ICU dataset and a synthetic outpatient dataset were transformed into OMOP CDM databases for predictive model development. The resulting predictive models are deployed as FHIR resources, which receive requests of patient information, perform prediction against the deployed predictive model and respond with prediction scores. To assess the practicality of this approach we evaluated the response and prediction time of the FHIR modeling web services. We found the system to be reasonably fast with one second total response time per patient prediction.

  20. In silico comparative study of epitopes predicted from different strains of genus parvovirus.

    OpenAIRE

    Rahul B. Chamute; Mahadev A. Jadhav; Anant Patil

    2011-01-01

    Parvoviruses are typically linear, non-segmented single-stranded DNA viruses, with an average genome size of 5000 nucleotides. Parvoviruses are some of the smallest viruses found in nature. Some have been found as small as 23 nm. Many types of mammalian species have a strain of parvovirus associated with them. Parvoviruses tend to be specific about the taxon of animal they will infect, but this is a somewhat flexible characteristic. Thus, all strains of parvovirus will affect dogs, wolves, an...

  1. Microstructurally Based Prediction of High Strain Failure Modes in Crystalline Solids

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-07-05

    interfaces in hcp– fcc systems subjected to high strain-rate deformation and fracture modes, Journal of Materials Research, (8 2015): 0. doi: 10.1557/jmr...rupture • Comparison and validation with experimental observations/ measurements • New dislocation-density crystalline plasticity that accounts for...relationships between coherent interfaces in hcp– fcc systems subjected to high strain-rate deformation and fracture modes, Journal of Materials Research, Vol. 30

  2. An analytical model for climatic predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Njau, E.C.

    1990-12-01

    A climatic model based upon analytical expressions is presented. This model is capable of making long-range predictions of heat energy variations on regional or global scales. These variations can then be transformed into corresponding variations of some other key climatic parameters since weather and climatic changes are basically driven by differential heating and cooling around the earth. On the basis of the mathematical expressions upon which the model is based, it is shown that the global heat energy structure (and hence the associated climatic system) are characterized by zonally as well as latitudinally propagating fluctuations at frequencies downward of 0.5 day -1 . We have calculated the propagation speeds for those particular frequencies that are well documented in the literature. The calculated speeds are in excellent agreement with the measured speeds. (author). 13 refs

  3. An Anisotropic Hardening Model for Springback Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Danielle; Xia, Z. Cedric

    2005-08-01

    As more Advanced High-Strength Steels (AHSS) are heavily used for automotive body structures and closures panels, accurate springback prediction for these components becomes more challenging because of their rapid hardening characteristics and ability to sustain even higher stresses. In this paper, a modified Mroz hardening model is proposed to capture realistic Bauschinger effect at reverse loading, such as when material passes through die radii or drawbead during sheet metal forming process. This model accounts for material anisotropic yield surface and nonlinear isotropic/kinematic hardening behavior. Material tension/compression test data are used to accurately represent Bauschinger effect. The effectiveness of the model is demonstrated by comparison of numerical and experimental springback results for a DP600 straight U-channel test.

  4. An Anisotropic Hardening Model for Springback Prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeng, Danielle; Xia, Z. Cedric

    2005-01-01

    As more Advanced High-Strength Steels (AHSS) are heavily used for automotive body structures and closures panels, accurate springback prediction for these components becomes more challenging because of their rapid hardening characteristics and ability to sustain even higher stresses. In this paper, a modified Mroz hardening model is proposed to capture realistic Bauschinger effect at reverse loading, such as when material passes through die radii or drawbead during sheet metal forming process. This model accounts for material anisotropic yield surface and nonlinear isotropic/kinematic hardening behavior. Material tension/compression test data are used to accurately represent Bauschinger effect. The effectiveness of the model is demonstrated by comparison of numerical and experimental springback results for a DP600 straight U-channel test

  5. Prediction of crack growth direction by Strain Energy Sih's Theory on specimens SEN under tension-compression biaxial loading employing Genetic Algorithms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodriguez-MartInez R; Lugo-Gonzalez E; Urriolagoitia-Calderon G; Urriolagoitia-Sosa G; Hernandez-Gomez L H; Romero-Angeles B; Torres-San Miguel Ch, E-mail: rrodriguezm@ipn.mx, E-mail: urrio332@hotmail.com, E-mail: guiurri@hotmail.com, E-mail: luishector56@hotmail.com, E-mail: romerobeatriz98@hotmail.com, E-mail: napor@hotmail.com [INSTITUTO POLITECNICO NACIONAL Seccion de Estudios de Posgrado e Investigacion (SEPI), Escuela Superior de Ingenieria Mecanica y Electrica (ESIME), Edificio 5. 2do Piso, Unidad Profesional Adolfo Lopez Mateos ' Zacatenco' Col. Lindavista, C.P. 07738, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)

    2011-07-19

    Crack growth direction has been studied in many ways. Particularly Sih's strain energy theory predicts that a fracture under a three-dimensional state of stress spreads in direction of the minimum strain energy density. In this work a study for angle of fracture growth was made, considering a biaxial stress state at the crack tip on SEN specimens. The stress state applied on a tension-compression SEN specimen is biaxial one on crack tip, as it can observed in figure 1. A solution method proposed to obtain a mathematical model considering genetic algorithms, which have demonstrated great capacity for the solution of many engineering problems. From the model given by Sih one can deduce the density of strain energy stored for unit of volume at the crack tip as dW = [1/2E({sigma}{sup 2}{sub x} + {sigma}{sup 2}{sub y}) - {nu}/E({sigma}{sub x}{sigma}{sub y})]dV (1). From equation (1) a mathematical deduction to solve in terms of {theta} of this case was developed employing Genetic Algorithms, where {theta} is a crack propagation direction in plane x-y. Steel and aluminium mechanical properties to modelled specimens were employed, because they are two of materials but used in engineering design. Obtained results show stable zones of fracture propagation but only in a range of applied loading.

  6. Prediction of crack growth direction by Strain Energy Sih's Theory on specimens SEN under tension-compression biaxial loading employing Genetic Algorithms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodriguez-MartInez R; Lugo-Gonzalez E; Urriolagoitia-Calderon G; Urriolagoitia-Sosa G; Hernandez-Gomez L H; Romero-Angeles B; Torres-San Miguel Ch

    2011-01-01

    Crack growth direction has been studied in many ways. Particularly Sih's strain energy theory predicts that a fracture under a three-dimensional state of stress spreads in direction of the minimum strain energy density. In this work a study for angle of fracture growth was made, considering a biaxial stress state at the crack tip on SEN specimens. The stress state applied on a tension-compression SEN specimen is biaxial one on crack tip, as it can observed in figure 1. A solution method proposed to obtain a mathematical model considering genetic algorithms, which have demonstrated great capacity for the solution of many engineering problems. From the model given by Sih one can deduce the density of strain energy stored for unit of volume at the crack tip as dW = [1/2E(σ 2 x + σ 2 y ) - ν/E(σ x σy)]dV (1). From equation (1) a mathematical deduction to solve in terms of θ of this case was developed employing Genetic Algorithms, where θ is a crack propagation direction in plane x-y. Steel and aluminium mechanical properties to modelled specimens were employed, because they are two of materials but used in engineering design. Obtained results show stable zones of fracture propagation but only in a range of applied loading.

  7. Numerical models for the prediction of failure for multilayer fusion Al-alloy sheets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gorji, Maysam; Berisha, Bekim; Hora, Pavel; Timm, Jürgen

    2013-01-01

    Initiation and propagation of cracks in monolithic and multi-layer aluminum alloys, called “Fusion”, is investigated. 2D plane strain finite element simulations are performed to model deformation due to bending and to predict failure. For this purpose, fracture strains are measured based on microscopic pictures of Nakajima specimens. In addition to, micro-structure of materials is taken into account by introducing a random grain distribution over the sheet thickness as well as a random distribution of the measured yield curve. It is shown that the performed experiments and the introduced FE-Model are appropriate methods to highlight the advantages of the Fusion material, especially for bending processes

  8. Numerical method for a 2D drift diffusion model arising in strained n ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. This paper reports the calculation of electron transport in metal oxide semiconductor field effects transistors (MOSFETs) with biaxially tensile strained silicon channel. The calculation is formulated based on two-dimensional drift diffusion model (DDM) including strain effects. The carrier mobility dependence on the ...

  9. Numerical method for a 2D drift diffusion model arising in strained n ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This paper reports the calculation of electron transport in metal oxide semiconductor field effects transistors (MOSFETs) with biaxially tensile strained silicon channel. The calculation is formulated based on two-dimensional drift diffusion model (DDM) including strain effects. The carrier mobility dependence on the lateral and ...

  10. Consistent stress-strain ductile fracture model as applied to two grades of beryllium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Priddy, T.G.; Benzley, S.E.; Ford, L.M.

    1980-01-01

    Published yield and ultimate biaxial stress and strain data for two grades of beryllium are correlated with a more complete method of characterizing macroscopic strain at fracture initiation in ductile materials. Results are compared with those obtained from an exponential, mean stress dependent, model. Simple statistical methods are employed to illustrate the degree of correlation for each method with the experimental data

  11. Web tools for predictive toxicology model building.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeliazkova, Nina

    2012-07-01

    The development and use of web tools in chemistry has accumulated more than 15 years of history already. Powered by the advances in the Internet technologies, the current generation of web systems are starting to expand into areas, traditional for desktop applications. The web platforms integrate data storage, cheminformatics and data analysis tools. The ease of use and the collaborative potential of the web is compelling, despite the challenges. The topic of this review is a set of recently published web tools that facilitate predictive toxicology model building. The focus is on software platforms, offering web access to chemical structure-based methods, although some of the frameworks could also provide bioinformatics or hybrid data analysis functionalities. A number of historical and current developments are cited. In order to provide comparable assessment, the following characteristics are considered: support for workflows, descriptor calculations, visualization, modeling algorithms, data management and data sharing capabilities, availability of GUI or programmatic access and implementation details. The success of the Web is largely due to its highly decentralized, yet sufficiently interoperable model for information access. The expected future convergence between cheminformatics and bioinformatics databases provides new challenges toward management and analysis of large data sets. The web tools in predictive toxicology will likely continue to evolve toward the right mix of flexibility, performance, scalability, interoperability, sets of unique features offered, friendly user interfaces, programmatic access for advanced users, platform independence, results reproducibility, curation and crowdsourcing utilities, collaborative sharing and secure access.

  12. Predictions of models for environmental radiological assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peres, Sueli da Silva; Lauria, Dejanira da Costa; Mahler, Claudio Fernando

    2011-01-01

    In the field of environmental impact assessment, models are used for estimating source term, environmental dispersion and transfer of radionuclides, exposure pathway, radiation dose and the risk for human beings Although it is recognized that the specific information of local data are important to improve the quality of the dose assessment results, in fact obtaining it can be very difficult and expensive. Sources of uncertainties are numerous, among which we can cite: the subjectivity of modelers, exposure scenarios and pathways, used codes and general parameters. The various models available utilize different mathematical approaches with different complexities that can result in different predictions. Thus, for the same inputs different models can produce very different outputs. This paper presents briefly the main advances in the field of environmental radiological assessment that aim to improve the reliability of the models used in the assessment of environmental radiological impact. The intercomparison exercise of model supplied incompatible results for 137 Cs and 60 Co, enhancing the need for developing reference methodologies for environmental radiological assessment that allow to confront dose estimations in a common comparison base. The results of the intercomparison exercise are present briefly. (author)

  13. A Predictive Maintenance Model for Railway Tracks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Rui; Wen, Min; Salling, Kim Bang

    2015-01-01

    presents a mathematical model based on Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) which is designed to optimize the predictive railway tamping activities for ballasted track for the time horizon up to four years. The objective function is setup to minimize the actual costs for the tamping machine (measured by time......). Five technical and economic aspects are taken into account to schedule tamping: (1) track degradation of the standard deviation of the longitudinal level over time; (2) track geometrical alignment; (3) track quality thresholds based on the train speed limits; (4) the dependency of the track quality...

  14. Predictive Capability Maturity Model for computational modeling and simulation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oberkampf, William Louis; Trucano, Timothy Guy; Pilch, Martin M.

    2007-10-01

    The Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) is a new model that can be used to assess the level of maturity of computational modeling and simulation (M&S) efforts. The development of the model is based on both the authors experience and their analysis of similar investigations in the past. The perspective taken in this report is one of judging the usefulness of a predictive capability that relies on the numerical solution to partial differential equations to better inform and improve decision making. The review of past investigations, such as the Software Engineering Institute's Capability Maturity Model Integration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Department of Defense Technology Readiness Levels, indicates that a more restricted, more interpretable method is needed to assess the maturity of an M&S effort. The PCMM addresses six contributing elements to M&S: (1) representation and geometric fidelity, (2) physics and material model fidelity, (3) code verification, (4) solution verification, (5) model validation, and (6) uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. For each of these elements, attributes are identified that characterize four increasing levels of maturity. Importantly, the PCMM is a structured method for assessing the maturity of an M&S effort that is directed toward an engineering application of interest. The PCMM does not assess whether the M&S effort, the accuracy of the predictions, or the performance of the engineering system satisfies or does not satisfy specified application requirements.

  15. Predictive value of cardiac magnetic resonance imaging-derived myocardial strain for poor outcomes in patients with acute myocarditis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Ji Won; Jeong, Yeon Joo; Lee, Gee Won; Lee, Nam Kyung; Lee, Hye Won; Kim, Jin You [Pusan National University School of Medicine and Medical Research Institute, Pusan National University Hospital, Busan (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Bum Sung; Choo, Ki Seok [Pusan National University Yangsan Hospital, Yangsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-08-01

    To evaluate the utility of cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR)-derived myocardial strain measurement for the prediction of poor outcomes in patients with acute myocarditis We retrospectively analyzed data from 37 patients with acute myocarditis who underwent CMR. Left ventricular (LV) size, LV mass index, ejection fraction and presence of myocardial late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) were analyzed. LV circumferential strain (EccSAX), radial strain (ErrSAX) from mid-ventricular level short-axis cine views and LV longitudinal strain (EllLV), radial strain (ErrLax) measurements from 2-chamber long-axis views were obtained. In total, 31 of 37 patients (83.8%) underwent follow-up echocardiography. The primary outcome was major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE). Incomplete LV functional recovery was a secondary outcome. During an average follow-up of 41 months, 11 of 37 patients (29.7%) experienced MACE. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analysis, which included LV mass index, LV ejection fraction, the presence of LGE, EccSAX, ErrSAX, EllLV, and ErrLax values, indicated that the presence of LGE (hazard ratio, 42.88; p = 0.014), together with ErrLax (hazard ratio, 0.77 per 1%, p = 0.004), was a significant predictor of MACE. Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated worse outcomes in patient with LGE and an ErrLax value ≤ 9.48%. Multivariable backward regression analysis revealed that ErrLax values were the only significant predictors of LV functional recovery (hazard ratio, 0.54 per 1%; p = 0.042). CMR-derived ErrLax values can predict poor outcomes, both MACE and incomplete LV functional recovery, in patients with acute myocarditis, while LGE is only a predictor of MACE.

  16. Effective modelling for predictive analytics in data science ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Effective modelling for predictive analytics in data science. ... the nearabsence of empirical or factual predictive analytics in the mainstream research going on ... Keywords: Predictive Analytics, Big Data, Business Intelligence, Project Planning.

  17. Distinct virulence of Rift Valley fever phlebovirus strains from different genetic lineages in a mouse model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tetsuro Ikegami

    Full Text Available Rift Valley fever phlebovirus (RVFV causes high rates of abortions and fetal malformations in ruminants, and hemorrhagic fever, encephalitis, or blindness in humans. Viral transmission occurs via mosquito vectors in endemic areas, which necessitates regular vaccination of susceptible livestock animals to prevent the RVF outbreaks. Although ZH501 strain has been used as a challenge strain for past vaccine efficacy studies, further characterization of other RVFV strains is important to optimize ruminant and nonhuman primate RVFV challenge models. This study aimed to characterize the virulence of wild-type RVFV strains belonging to different genetic lineages in outbred CD1 mice. Mice were intraperitoneally infected with 1x103 PFU of wild-type ZH501, Kenya 9800523, Kenya 90058, Saudi Arabia 200010911, OS1, OS7, SA75, Entebbe, or SA51 strains. Among them, mice infected with SA51, Entebbe, or OS7 strain showed rapid dissemination of virus in livers and peracute necrotic hepatitis at 2-3 dpi. Recombinant SA51 (rSA51 and Zinga (rZinga strains were recovered by reverse genetics, and their virulence was also tested in CD1 mice. The rSA51 strain reproduced peracute RVF disease in mice, whereas the rZinga strain showed a similar virulence with that of rZH501 strain. This study showed that RVFV strains in different genetic lineages display distinct virulence in outbred mice. Importantly, since wild-type RVFV strains contain defective-interfering RNA or various genetic subpopulations during passage from original viral isolations, recombinant RVFV strains generated by reverse genetics will be better suitable for reproducible challenge studies for vaccine development as well as pathological studies.

  18. A Model for High-Strain-Rate Deformation of Uranium-Niobium Alloys

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    F.L.Addessio; Q.H.Zuo; T.A.Mason; L.C.Brinson

    2003-05-01

    A thermodynamic approach is used to develop a framework for modeling uranium-niobium alloys under the conditions of high strain rate. Using this framework, a three-dimensional phenomenological model, which includes nonlinear elasticity (equation of state), phase transformation, crystal reorientation, rate-dependent plasticity, and porosity growth is presented. An implicit numerical technique is used to solve the evolution equations for the material state. Comparisons are made between the model and data for low-strain-rate loading and unloading as well as for heating and cooling experiments. Comparisons of the model and data also are made for low- and high-strain-rate uniaxial stress and uniaxial strain experiments. A uranium-6 weight percent niobium alloy is used in the comparisons of model and experiment.

  19. The strain path dependence of plastic deformation response of AA5754: Experiment and modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pham, Minh-Son; Hu, Lin; Iadicola, Mark; Creuziger, Adam; Rollett, Anthony D.

    2013-01-01

    This work presents modeling of experiments on a balanced biaxial (BB) pre-strained AA5754 alloy, subsequently reloaded uniaxially along the rolling direction and transverse direction. The material exhibits a complex plastic deformation response during the change in strain path due to 1) crystallographic texture, 2) aging (interactions between dislocations and Mg atoms) and 3) recovery (annihilation and re-arrangement of dislocations). With a BB prestrain of about 5 %, the aging process is dominant, and the yield strength for uniaxially deformed samples is observed to be higher than the flow stress during BB straining. The strain hardening rate after changing path is, however, lower than that for pre-straining. Higher degrees of pre-straining make the dynamic recovery more active. The dynamic recovery at higher strain levels compensates for the aging effect, and results in: 1) a reduction of the yield strength, and 2) an increase in the hardening rate of re-strained specimens along other directions. The yield strength of deformed samples is further reduced if these samples are left at room temperature to let static recovery occur. The synergistic influences of texture condition, aging and recovery processes on the material response make the modeling of strain path dependence of mechanical behavior of AA5754 challenging. In this study, the influence of crystallographic texture is taken into account by incorporating the latent hardening into a visco-plastic self-consistent model. Different strengths of dislocation glide interaction models in 24 slip systems are used to represent the latent hardening. Moreover, the aging and recovery effects are also included into the latent hardening model by considering strong interactions between dislocations and dissolved atom Mg and the microstructural evolution. These microstructural considerations provide a powerful capability to successfully describe the strain path dependence of plastic deformation behavior of AA5754

  20. Influence of the representation models of the stress-strain law on the LMFBR structures in an HCDA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daneri, A.; Toselli, G.; Trombetti, T.; Blanchet, Y.; Louvet, J.; Obry, P.

    1981-08-01

    Most of analysis involved in mechanical calculations related to explosive accidents in fast breeder reactors are now aware of the inadequacy of certain rough stress-strain laws to representing the correct behaviour of vessel materials. Indeed stress waves along the vessel walls deform the material at a high strain rate with multiaxial loading or reverse loading. Recently different questions have been under investigation in France in this direction and the present study, performed in the frame of the agreement CNEN-CEA, is an example of the way how two very important factors (strain rate and strain hardening) may be taken into account in the constitutive equations of materials subject to dynamic deformations. Several parametric calculations have been carried out with the hydrodynamic structural codes ASTARTE-3/4 and SIRIUS, which are the Lagrangian validated code now available at the CNEN and CEA-Cadarache computing centres. Analysis was performed by comparing two reference calculations relating to the MARA 01 and COVA IT7 explosive tests with experimental data and with other calculations in which different values of the initial hardening and of the strain rates of the tank shell material were introduced. In general both codes give similar results; improvements of predicted axial and hoop strains and of impulses in water have been reached in certain cases but it is difficult to find a general trend and there is no ideal constitutive model: indeed the strain rate is not constant in time, in place and in direction and some parts of the vessels are uniaxially loaded while others are multiaxially loaded

  1. Influence of the representation models of the stress-strain law on the LMFBR structures in an HCDA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daneri, A.; Toselli, G.; Trombetti, T.; Blanche, Y.; Louvet, J.; Obry, P.

    1982-01-01

    Most of analysis involved in mechanical calculations related to explosive accidents in fast breeder reactor are now aware of the inadequacy of certain roug stress-strain laws to representing the correct behaviour of vessel materials. Indeed stress waves along the vessel walls deform the material at high strain rate with multiaxial loading or reverse loading. Recently different questions have been under investigation in France in this direction and the present study, performed in the frame of the agreement CNEN-CEA, is an example of the way how two very important factors (strain rate and strain hardening) may be taken into account in the consecutive equations of materials subject to dynamic deformations. Several parametric calculations have been carried out with the hydrodynamic structural codes ASTARTE 3/4 and SIRIUS, which are the Lagrangian validated codes now available at the CNEN and CEA Cadarache Computing Centres.Analysis was performed by comparing two reference calculations relating to the MARA 01 and COVA IT7 explosive tests with experimental data and with other calculations in which different values of the initial hardening and of the strain rates of the tank shell material were introduced. In general both codes give similar results; improvements of predicted axial and hoop strain and of impulses in water have been reached in certain cases but it is difficult to find a general trend and there is no ideal constitutive model: indeed the strain rate is not constant in time, in place and in direction and some parts of the vessels are uniaxially loaded while others are multiaxially loaded

  2. Combining GPS measurements and IRI model predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hernandez-Pajares, M.; Juan, J.M.; Sanz, J.; Bilitza, D.

    2002-01-01

    The free electrons distributed in the ionosphere (between one hundred and thousands of km in height) produce a frequency-dependent effect on Global Positioning System (GPS) signals: a delay in the pseudo-orange and an advance in the carrier phase. These effects are proportional to the columnar electron density between the satellite and receiver, i.e. the integrated electron density along the ray path. Global ionospheric TEC (total electron content) maps can be obtained with GPS data from a network of ground IGS (international GPS service) reference stations with an accuracy of few TEC units. The comparison with the TOPEX TEC, mainly measured over the oceans far from the IGS stations, shows a mean bias and standard deviation of about 2 and 5 TECUs respectively. The discrepancies between the STEC predictions and the observed values show an RMS typically below 5 TECUs (which also includes the alignment code noise). he existence of a growing database 2-hourly global TEC maps and with resolution of 5x2.5 degrees in longitude and latitude can be used to improve the IRI prediction capability of the TEC. When the IRI predictions and the GPS estimations are compared for a three month period around the Solar Maximum, they are in good agreement for middle latitudes. An over-determination of IRI TEC has been found at the extreme latitudes, the IRI predictions being, typically two times higher than the GPS estimations. Finally, local fits of the IRI model can be done by tuning the SSN from STEC GPS observations

  3. Effect on Prediction when Modeling Covariates in Bayesian Nonparametric Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz-Marcelo, Alejandro; Rosner, Gary L; Müller, Peter; Stewart, Clinton F

    2013-04-01

    In biomedical research, it is often of interest to characterize biologic processes giving rise to observations and to make predictions of future observations. Bayesian nonparametric methods provide a means for carrying out Bayesian inference making as few assumptions about restrictive parametric models as possible. There are several proposals in the literature for extending Bayesian nonparametric models to include dependence on covariates. Limited attention, however, has been directed to the following two aspects. In this article, we examine the effect on fitting and predictive performance of incorporating covariates in a class of Bayesian nonparametric models by one of two primary ways: either in the weights or in the locations of a discrete random probability measure. We show that different strategies for incorporating continuous covariates in Bayesian nonparametric models can result in big differences when used for prediction, even though they lead to otherwise similar posterior inferences. When one needs the predictive density, as in optimal design, and this density is a mixture, it is better to make the weights depend on the covariates. We demonstrate these points via a simulated data example and in an application in which one wants to determine the optimal dose of an anticancer drug used in pediatric oncology.

  4. Mathematical models for indoor radon prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malanca, A.; Pessina, V.; Dallara, G.

    1995-01-01

    It is known that the indoor radon (Rn) concentration can be predicted by means of mathematical models. The simplest model relies on two variables only: the Rn source strength and the air exchange rate. In the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) model several environmental parameters are combined into a complex equation; besides, a correlation between the ventilation rate and the Rn entry rate from the soil is admitted. The measurements were carried out using activated carbon canisters. Seventy-five measurements of Rn concentrations were made inside two rooms placed on the second floor of a building block. One of the rooms had a single-glazed window whereas the other room had a double pane window. During three different experimental protocols, the mean Rn concentration was always higher into the room with a double-glazed window. That behavior can be accounted for by the simplest model. A further set of 450 Rn measurements was collected inside a ground-floor room with a grounding well in it. This trend maybe accounted for by the LBL model

  5. Towards predictive models for transitionally rough surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abderrahaman-Elena, Nabil; Garcia-Mayoral, Ricardo

    2017-11-01

    We analyze and model the previously presented decomposition for flow variables in DNS of turbulence over transitionally rough surfaces. The flow is decomposed into two contributions: one produced by the overlying turbulence, which has no footprint of the surface texture, and one induced by the roughness, which is essentially the time-averaged flow around the surface obstacles, but modulated in amplitude by the first component. The roughness-induced component closely resembles the laminar steady flow around the roughness elements at the same non-dimensional roughness size. For small - yet transitionally rough - textures, the roughness-free component is essentially the same as over a smooth wall. Based on these findings, we propose predictive models for the onset of the transitionally rough regime. Project supported by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC).

  6. Resource-estimation models and predicted discovery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hill, G.W.

    1982-01-01

    Resources have been estimated by predictive extrapolation from past discovery experience, by analogy with better explored regions, or by inference from evidence of depletion of targets for exploration. Changes in technology and new insights into geological mechanisms have occurred sufficiently often in the long run to form part of the pattern of mature discovery experience. The criterion, that a meaningful resource estimate needs an objective measure of its precision or degree of uncertainty, excludes 'estimates' based solely on expert opinion. This is illustrated by development of error measures for several persuasive models of discovery and production of oil and gas in USA, both annually and in terms of increasing exploration effort. Appropriate generalizations of the models resolve many points of controversy. This is illustrated using two USA data sets describing discovery of oil and of U 3 O 8 ; the latter set highlights an inadequacy of available official data. Review of the oil-discovery data set provides a warrant for adjusting the time-series prediction to a higher resource figure for USA petroleum. (author)

  7. Prediction of pipeline corrosion rate based on grey Markov models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Yonghong; Zhang Dafa; Peng Guichu; Wang Yuemin

    2009-01-01

    Based on the model that combined by grey model and Markov model, the prediction of corrosion rate of nuclear power pipeline was studied. Works were done to improve the grey model, and the optimization unbiased grey model was obtained. This new model was used to predict the tendency of corrosion rate, and the Markov model was used to predict the residual errors. In order to improve the prediction precision, rolling operation method was used in these prediction processes. The results indicate that the improvement to the grey model is effective and the prediction precision of the new model combined by the optimization unbiased grey model and Markov model is better, and the use of rolling operation method may improve the prediction precision further. (authors)

  8. Prediction of macroscopic and local stress-strain behaviors of perforated plates under primary and secondary creep conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igari, Toshihide; Tokiyoshi, Takumi; Mizokami, Yorikata

    2000-01-01

    Prediction methods of macroscopic and local creep behaviors of perforated plates are examined in order to apply these methods to the structural design of perforated structures such as heat exchangers used in elevated temperatures. Both primary and secondary creeps are considered for predicting macroscopic and local creep behaviors of perorated plates which are made of actual structural materials. Both uniaxial and multiaxial loading of perforated plates are taken into consideration. The concept of effective stress is applied to the prediction of macroscopic creep behaviors of perforated plates, and the predicted results are compared with the numerical results by FEM for the unit section of perorated plated under creep, in order to confirm the propriety of the proposed method. Based on the idea that stress exponents in creep equations govern the stress distribution of perforated plates, a modified Neuber's rule is used for predicting local stress and strain concentrations. The propriety of this prediction method is shown through a comparison of the prediction with the numerical results by FEM for the unit section of perforated plates under creep, and experimental results by the Moire method. (author)

  9. A molecular-mechanics based finite element model for strength prediction of single wall carbon nanotubes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meo, M.; Rossi, M.

    2007-01-01

    The aim of this work was to develop a finite element model based on molecular mechanics to predict the ultimate strength and strain of single wallet carbon nanotubes (SWCNT). The interactions between atoms was modelled by combining the use of non-linear elastic and torsional elastic spring. In particular, with this approach, it was tried to combine the molecular mechanics approach with finite element method without providing any not-physical data on the interactions between the carbon atoms, i.e. the CC-bond inertia moment or Young's modulus definition. Mechanical properties as Young's modulus, ultimate strength and strain for several CNTs were calculated. Further, a stress-strain curve for large deformation (up to 70%) is reported for a nanotube Zig-Zag (9,0). The results showed that good agreement with the experimental and numerical results of several authors was obtained. A comparison of the mechanical properties of nanotubes with same diameter and different chirality was carried out. Finally, the influence of the presence of defects on the strength and strain of a SWNT was also evaluated. In particular, the stress-strain curve a nanotube with one-vacancy defect was evaluated and compared with the curve of a pristine one, showing a reduction of the ultimate strength and strain for the defected nanotube. The FE model proposed demonstrate to be a reliable tool to simulate mechanical behaviour of carbon nanotubes both in the linear elastic field and the non-linear elastic field

  10. An Operational Model for the Prediction of Jet Blast

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-09

    This paper presents an operational model for the prediction of jet blast. The model was : developed based upon three modules including a jet exhaust model, jet centerline decay : model and aircraft motion model. The final analysis was compared with d...

  11. Left and right ventricular dyssynchrony and strains from cardiovascular magnetic resonance feature tracking do not predict deterioration of ventricular function in patients with repaired tetralogy of Fallot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Linyuan; Wehner, Gregory J; Suever, Jonathan D; Charnigo, Richard J; Alhadad, Sudad; Stearns, Evan; Mojsejenko, Dimitri; Haggerty, Christopher M; Hickey, Kelsey; Valente, Anne Marie; Geva, Tal; Powell, Andrew J; Fornwalt, Brandon K

    2016-08-22

    Patients with repaired tetralogy of Fallot (rTOF) suffer from progressive ventricular dysfunction decades after their surgical repair. We hypothesized that measures of ventricular strain and dyssynchrony would predict deterioration of ventricular function in patients with rTOF. A database search identified all patients at a single institution with rTOF who underwent cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) at least twice, >6 months apart, without intervening surgical or catheter procedures. Seven primary predictors were derived from the first CMR using a custom feature tracking algorithm: left (LV), right (RV) and inter-ventricular dyssynchrony, LV and RV peak global circumferential strains, and LV and RV peak global longitudinal strains. Three outcomes were defined, whose changes were assessed over time: RV end-diastolic volume, and RV and LV ejection fraction. Multivariate linear mixed models were fit to investigate relationships of outcomes to predictors and ten potential baseline confounders. One hundred fifty-three patients with rTOF (23 ± 14 years, 50 % male) were included. The mean follow-up duration between the first and last CMR was 2.9 ± 1.3 years. After adjustment for confounders, none of the 7 primary predictors were significantly associated with change over time in the 3 outcome variables. Only 1-17 % of the variability in the change over time in the outcome variables was explained by the baseline predictors and potential confounders. In patients with repaired tetralogy of Fallot, ventricular dyssynchrony and global strain derived from cine CMR were not significantly related to changes in ventricular size and function over time. The ability to predict deterioration in ventricular function in patients with rTOF using current methods is limited.

  12. A Combined Precipitation, Yield Stress, and Work Hardening Model for Al-Mg-Si Alloys Incorporating the Effects of Strain Rate and Temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myhr, Ole Runar; Hopperstad, Odd Sture; Børvik, Tore

    2018-05-01

    In this study, a combined precipitation, yield strength, and work hardening model for Al-Mg-Si alloys known as NaMo has been further developed to include the effects of strain rate and temperature on the resulting stress-strain behavior. The extension of the model is based on a comprehensive experimental database, where thermomechanical data for three different Al-Mg-Si alloys are available. In the tests, the temperature was varied between 20 °C and 350 °C with strain rates ranging from 10-6 to 750 s-1 using ordinary tension tests for low strain rates and a split-Hopkinson tension bar system for high strain rates, respectively. This large span in temperatures and strain rates covers a broad range of industrial relevant problems from creep to impact loading. Based on the experimental data, a procedure for calibrating the different physical parameters of the model has been developed, starting with the simplest case of a stable precipitate structure and small plastic strains, from which basic kinetic data for obstacle limited dislocation glide were extracted. For larger strains, when work hardening becomes significant, the dynamic recovery was linked to the Zener-Hollomon parameter, again using a stable precipitate structure as a basis for calibration. Finally, the complex situation of concurrent work hardening and dynamic evolution of the precipitate structure was analyzed using a stepwise numerical solution algorithm where parameters representing the instantaneous state of the structure were used to calculate the corresponding instantaneous yield strength and work hardening rate. The model was demonstrated to exhibit a high degree of predictive power as documented by a good agreement between predictions and measurements, and it is deemed well suited for simulations of thermomechanical processing of Al-Mg-Si alloys where plastic deformation is carried out at various strain rates and temperatures.

  13. Continuous borehole strain and pore pressure in the near field of the 28 September 2004 M 6.0 parkfield, California, earthquake: Implications for nucleation, fault response, earthquake prediction and tremor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, M.J.S.; Borcherdt, R.D.; Linde, A.T.; Gladwin, M.T.

    2006-01-01

    Near-field observations of high-precision borehole strain and pore pressure, show no indication of coherent accelerating strain or pore pressure during the weeks to seconds before the 28 September 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield earthquake. Minor changes in strain rate did occur at a few sites during the last 24 hr before the earthquake but these changes are neither significant nor have the form expected for strain during slip coalescence initiating fault failure. Seconds before the event, strain is stable at the 10-11 level. Final prerupture nucleation slip in the hypocentral region is constrained to have a moment less than 2 ?? 1012 N m (M 2.2) and a source size less than 30 m. Ground displacement data indicate similar constraints. Localized rupture nucleation and runaway precludes useful prediction of damaging earthquakes. Coseismic dynamic strains of about 10 microstrain peak-to-peak were superimposed on volumetric strain offsets of about 0.5 microstrain to the northwest of the epicenter and about 0.2 microstrain to the southeast of the epicenter, consistent with right lateral slip. Observed strain and Global Positioning System (GPS) offsets can be simply fit with 20 cm of slip between 4 and 10 km on a 20-km segment of the fault north of Gold Hill (M0 = 7 ?? 1017 N m). Variable slip inversion models using GPS data and seismic data indicate similar moments. Observed postseismic strain is 60% to 300% of the coseismic strain, indicating incomplete release of accumulated strain. No measurable change in fault zone compliance preceding or following the earthquake is indicated by stable earth tidal response. No indications of strain change accompany nonvolcanic tremor events reported prior to and following the earthquake.

  14. A Continuum Damage Mechanics Model to Predict Kink-Band Propagation Using Deformation Gradient Tensor Decomposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergan, Andrew C.; Leone, Frank A., Jr.

    2016-01-01

    A new model is proposed that represents the kinematics of kink-band formation and propagation within the framework of a mesoscale continuum damage mechanics (CDM) model. The model uses the recently proposed deformation gradient decomposition approach to represent a kink band as a displacement jump via a cohesive interface that is embedded in an elastic bulk material. The model is capable of representing the combination of matrix failure in the frame of a misaligned fiber and instability due to shear nonlinearity. In contrast to conventional linear or bilinear strain softening laws used in most mesoscale CDM models for longitudinal compression, the constitutive response of the proposed model includes features predicted by detailed micromechanical models. These features include: 1) the rotational kinematics of the kink band, 2) an instability when the peak load is reached, and 3) a nonzero plateau stress under large strains.

  15. Viscoplastic equations incorporated into a finite element model to predict deformation behavior of irradiated reduced activation ferritic/martensitic steel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Yuanyuan, E-mail: 630wyy@163.com [Key Laboratory of Materials Modification by Laser, Ion and Electron Beams (Ministry of Education), Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China); Zhao, Jijun, E-mail: zhaojj@dlut.edu.cn [Key Laboratory of Materials Modification by Laser, Ion and Electron Beams (Ministry of Education), Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China); Zhang, Chi [Key Laboratory of Advanced Materials of Ministry of Education, School of Materials Science and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China)

    2017-05-15

    Highlights: • The initial internal variable in the Anand model is modified by considering both temperature and irradiation dose. • The tensile stress-strain response is examined and analyzed under different temperatures and irradiation doses. • Yield strengths are predicted as functions of strain rate, temperature and irradiation dose. - Abstract: The viscoplastic equations with a modified initial internal variable are implemented into the finite element code to investigate stress-strain response and irradiation hardening of the materials under increased temperature and at different levels of irradiated dose. We applied this model to Mod 9Cr-1Mo steel. The predicted results are validated by the experimentally measured data. Furthermore, they show good agreement with the previous data from a constitutive crystal plasticity model in account of dislocation and interstitial loops. Three previous hardening models for predicting the yield strength of the material are discussed and compared with our simulation results.

  16. Computational prediction of over-annotated protein-coding genes in the genome of Agrobacterium tumefaciens strain C58

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Jia-Feng; Sui, Tian-Xiang; Wang, Hong-Mei; Wang, Chun-Ling; Jing, Li; Wang, Ji-Hua

    2015-12-01

    Agrobacterium tumefaciens strain C58 is a type of pathogen that can cause tumors in some dicotyledonous plants. Ever since the genome of A. tumefaciens strain C58 was sequenced, the quality of annotation of its protein-coding genes has been queried continually, because the annotation varies greatly among different databases. In this paper, the questionable hypothetical genes were re-predicted by integrating the TN curve and Z curve methods. As a result, 30 genes originally annotated as “hypothetical” were discriminated as being non-coding sequences. By testing the re-prediction program 10 times on data sets composed of the function-known genes, the mean accuracy of 99.99% and mean Matthews correlation coefficient value of 0.9999 were obtained. Further sequence analysis and COG analysis showed that the re-annotation results were very reliable. This work can provide an efficient tool and data resources for future studies of A. tumefaciens strain C58. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 61302186 and 61271378) and the Funding from the State Key Laboratory of Bioelectronics of Southeast University.

  17. Computational prediction of over-annotated protein-coding genes in the genome of Agrobacterium tumefaciens strain C58

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Jia-Feng; Sui Tian-Xiang; Wang Ji-Hua; Wang Hong-Mei; Wang Chun-Ling; Jing Li

    2015-01-01

    Agrobacterium tumefaciens strain C58 is a type of pathogen that can cause tumors in some dicotyledonous plants. Ever since the genome of A. tumefaciens strain C58 was sequenced, the quality of annotation of its protein-coding genes has been queried continually, because the annotation varies greatly among different databases. In this paper, the questionable hypothetical genes were re-predicted by integrating the TN curve and Z curve methods. As a result, 30 genes originally annotated as “hypothetical” were discriminated as being non-coding sequences. By testing the re-prediction program 10 times on data sets composed of the function-known genes, the mean accuracy of 99.99% and mean Matthews correlation coefficient value of 0.9999 were obtained. Further sequence analysis and COG analysis showed that the re-annotation results were very reliable. This work can provide an efficient tool and data resources for future studies of A. tumefaciens strain C58. (special topic)

  18. Data driven propulsion system weight prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerth, Richard J.

    1994-10-01

    The objective of the research was to develop a method to predict the weight of paper engines, i.e., engines that are in the early stages of development. The impetus for the project was the Single Stage To Orbit (SSTO) project, where engineers need to evaluate alternative engine designs. Since the SSTO is a performance driven project the performance models for alternative designs were well understood. The next tradeoff is weight. Since it is known that engine weight varies with thrust levels, a model is required that would allow discrimination between engines that produce the same thrust. Above all, the model had to be rooted in data with assumptions that could be justified based on the data. The general approach was to collect data on as many existing engines as possible and build a statistical model of the engines weight as a function of various component performance parameters. This was considered a reasonable level to begin the project because the data would be readily available, and it would be at the level of most paper engines, prior to detailed component design.

  19. Predictive modeling of emergency cesarean delivery.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Campillo-Artero

    Full Text Available To increase discriminatory accuracy (DA for emergency cesarean sections (ECSs.We prospectively collected data on and studied all 6,157 births occurring in 2014 at four public hospitals located in three different autonomous communities of Spain. To identify risk factors (RFs for ECS, we used likelihood ratios and logistic regression, fitted a classification tree (CTREE, and analyzed a random forest model (RFM. We used the areas under the receiver-operating-characteristic (ROC curves (AUCs to assess their DA.The magnitude of the LR+ for all putative individual RFs and ORs in the logistic regression models was low to moderate. Except for parity, all putative RFs were positively associated with ECS, including hospital fixed-effects and night-shift delivery. The DA of all logistic models ranged from 0.74 to 0.81. The most relevant RFs (pH, induction, and previous C-section in the CTREEs showed the highest ORs in the logistic models. The DA of the RFM and its most relevant interaction terms was even higher (AUC = 0.94; 95% CI: 0.93-0.95.Putative fetal, maternal, and contextual RFs alone fail to achieve reasonable DA for ECS. It is the combination of these RFs and the interactions between them at each hospital that make it possible to improve the DA for the type of delivery and tailor interventions through prediction to improve the appropriateness of ECS indications.

  20. How fault evolution changes strain partitioning and fault slip rates in Southern California: Results from geodynamic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Jiyang; Liu, Mian

    2017-08-01

    In Southern California, the Pacific-North America relative plate motion is accommodated by the complex southern San Andreas Fault system that includes many young faults (faults and their impact on strain partitioning and fault slip rates are important for understanding the evolution of this plate boundary zone and assessing earthquake hazard in Southern California. Using a three-dimensional viscoelastoplastic finite element model, we have investigated how this plate boundary fault system has evolved to accommodate the relative plate motion in Southern California. Our results show that when the plate boundary faults are not optimally configured to accommodate the relative plate motion, strain is localized in places where new faults would initiate to improve the mechanical efficiency of the fault system. In particular, the Eastern California Shear Zone, the San Jacinto Fault, the Elsinore Fault, and the offshore dextral faults all developed in places of highly localized strain. These younger faults compensate for the reduced fault slip on the San Andreas Fault proper because of the Big Bend, a major restraining bend. The evolution of the fault system changes the apportionment of fault slip rates over time, which may explain some of the slip rate discrepancy between geological and geodetic measurements in Southern California. For the present fault configuration, our model predicts localized strain in western Transverse Ranges and along the dextral faults across the Mojave Desert, where numerous damaging earthquakes occurred in recent years.

  1. Model Predictive Control based on Finite Impulse Response Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prasath, Guru; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2008-01-01

    We develop a regularized l2 finite impulse response (FIR) predictive controller with input and input-rate constraints. Feedback is based on a simple constant output disturbance filter. The performance of the predictive controller in the face of plant-model mismatch is investigated by simulations...... and related to the uncertainty of the impulse response coefficients. The simulations can be used to benchmark l2 MPC against FIR based robust MPC as well as to estimate the maximum performance improvements by robust MPC....

  2. Theoretical Prediction of an Antimony-Silicon Monolayer (penta-Sb2Si): Band Gap Engineering by Strain Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morshedi, Hosein; Naseri, Mosayeb; Hantehzadeh, Mohammad Reza; Elahi, Seyed Mohammad

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, using a first principles calculation, a two-dimensional structure of silicon-antimony named penta-Sb2Si is predicted. The structural, kinetic, and thermal stabilities of the predicted monolayer are confirmed by the cohesive energy calculation, phonon dispersion analysis, and first principles molecular dynamic simulation, respectively. The electronic properties investigation shows that the pentagonal Sb2Si monolayer is a semiconductor with an indirect band gap of about 1.53 eV (2.1 eV) from GGA-PBE (PBE0 hybrid functional) calculations which can be effectively engineered by employing external biaxial compressive and tensile strain. Furthermore, the optical characteristics calculation indicates that the predicted monolayer has considerable optical absorption and reflectivity in the ultraviolet region. The results suggest that a Sb2Si monolayer has very good potential applications in new nano-optoelectronic devices.

  3. Design of Strain-Compensated Epitaxial Layers Using an Electrical Circuit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kujofsa, Tedi; Ayers, John E.

    2017-12-01

    The design of heterostructures that exhibit desired strain characteristics is critical for the realization of semiconductor devices with improved performance and reliability. The control of strain and dislocation dynamics requires an understanding of the relaxation processes associated with mismatched epitaxy, and the starting point for this analysis is the equilibrium strain profile, because the difference between the actual strain and the equilibrium value determines the driving force for dislocation glide and relaxation. Previously, we developed an electrical circuit model approach for the equilibrium analysis of semiconductor heterostructures, in which an epitaxial layer may be represented by a stack of subcircuits, each of which involves an independent current source, a resistor, an independent voltage source, and an ideal diode. In this work, we have applied the electrical circuit model to study the strain compensation mechanism and show that, for a given compositionally uniform device layer with fixed mismatch and layer thickness, a buffer layer may be designed (in terms of thickness and mismatch) to tailor the strain in the device layer. A special case is that in which the device layer will exhibit zero residual strain in equilibrium (complete strain compensation). In addition, the application of the electrical circuit analogy enables the determination of exact expressions for the residual strain characteristics of both the buffer and device layers in the general case where the device layer may exhibit partial strain compensation. On the basis of this framework, it is possible to develop design equations for the tailoring of the strain in a device layer grown on a uniform composition buffer.

  4. An elasto-plastic self-consistent model with hardening based on dislocation density, twinning and de-twinning: Application to strain path changes in HCP metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zecevic, Milovan; Knezevic, Marko; Beyerlein, Irene J.; Tomé, Carlos N.

    2015-01-01

    In this work, we develop a polycrystal mean-field constitutive model based on an elastic–plastic self-consistent (EPSC) framework. In this model, we incorporate recently developed subgrain models for dislocation density evolution with thermally activated slip, twin activation via statistical stress fluctuations, reoriented twin domains within the grain and associated stress relaxation, twin boundary hardening, and de-twinning. The model is applied to a systematic set of strain path change tests on pure beryllium (Be). Under the applied deformation conditions, Be deforms by multiple slip modes and deformation twinning and thereby provides a challenging test for model validation. With a single set of material parameters, determined using the flow-stress vs. strain responses during monotonic testing, the model predicts well the evolution of texture, lattice strains, and twinning. With further analysis, we demonstrate the significant influence of internal residual stresses on (1) the flow stress drop when reloading from one path to another, (2) deformation twin activation, (3) de-twinning during a reversal strain path change, and (4) the formation of additional twin variants during a cross-loading sequence. The model presented here can, in principle, be applied to other metals, deforming by multiple slip and twinning modes under a wide range of temperature, strain rate, and strain path conditions

  5. High-Strain Rate Failure Modeling Incorporating Shear Banding and Fracture

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-11-22

    High Strain Rate Failure Modeling Incorporating Shear Banding and Fracture The views, opinions and/or findings contained in this report are those of...SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 12. DISTRIBUTION AVAILIBILITY STATEMENT 6. AUTHORS...Report as of 05-Dec-2017 Agreement Number: W911NF-13-1-0238 Organization: Columbia University Title: High Strain Rate Failure Modeling Incorporating

  6. Methodology for Designing Models Predicting Success of Infertility Treatment

    OpenAIRE

    Alireza Zarinara; Mohammad Mahdi Akhondi; Hojjat Zeraati; Koorsh Kamali; Kazem Mohammad

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Background: The prediction models for infertility treatment success have presented since 25 years ago. There are scientific principles for designing and applying the prediction models that is also used to predict the success rate of infertility treatment. The purpose of this study is to provide basic principles for designing the model to predic infertility treatment success. Materials and Methods: In this paper, the principles for developing predictive models are explained and...

  7. Development of a New Gradient Based Strain-Criterion for Prediction of Bendability in Quality Assurance and FEA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denninger, Ralf; Liewald, Mathias; Sindel, Manfred

    2011-08-01

    Numerical simulation systems are more and more used in process development of car bodies. Nowadays, also the hemming process is optimised in FEA. Thus, the analysing of process robustness calls for a failure criterion for the specific bending and hemming load condition. For that purpose the experimental determination of bendability under various pre-load conditions that occur in real production, e.g. during deep drawing in press shop, is content of this contribution. Using these experimental results, a new approach for a strain-gradient based failure criterion for bending operations is presented to optimise bendability prediction. The bending-strain-gradient approach can be used both in production related departments of quality assurance as well as for simulative process design or process validation for vehicle manufacturing planning.

  8. An extended OpenSim knee model for analysis of strains of connective tissues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marieswaran, M; Sikidar, Arnab; Goel, Anu; Joshi, Deepak; Kalyanasundaram, Dinesh

    2018-04-17

    OpenSim musculoskeletal models provide an accurate simulation environment that eases limitations of in vivo and in vitro studies. In this work, a biomechanical knee model was formulated with femoral articular cartilages and menisci along with 25 connective tissue bundles representing ligaments and capsules. The strain patterns of the connective tissues in the presence of femoral articular cartilage and menisci in the OpenSim knee model was probed in a first of its kind study. The effect of knee flexion (0°-120°), knee rotation (- 40° to 30°) and knee adduction (- 15° to 15°) on the anterior cruciate, posterior cruciate, medial collateral, lateral collateral ligaments and other connective tissues were studied by passive simulation. Further, a new parameter for assessment of strain namely, the differential inter-bundle strain of the connective tissues were analyzed to provide new insights for injury kinematics. ACL, PCL, LCL and PL was observed to follow a parabolic strain pattern during flexion while MCL represented linear strain patterns. All connective tissues showed non-symmetric parabolic strain variation during rotation. During adduction, the strain variation was linear for the knee bundles except for FL, PFL and TL. Strains higher than 0.1 were observed in most of the bundles during lateral rotation followed by abduction, medial rotation and adduction. In the case of flexion, highest strains were observed in aACL and aPCL. A combination of strains at a flexion of 0° with medial rotation of 30° or a flexion of 80° with rotation of 30° are evaluated as rupture-prone kinematics.

  9. Finite Unification: Theory, Models and Predictions

    CERN Document Server

    Heinemeyer, S; Zoupanos, G

    2011-01-01

    All-loop Finite Unified Theories (FUTs) are very interesting N=1 supersymmetric Grand Unified Theories (GUTs) realising an old field theory dream, and moreover have a remarkable predictive power due to the required reduction of couplings. The reduction of the dimensionless couplings in N=1 GUTs is achieved by searching for renormalization group invariant (RGI) relations among them holding beyond the unification scale. Finiteness results from the fact that there exist RGI relations among dimensional couplings that guarantee the vanishing of all beta-functions in certain N=1 GUTs even to all orders. Furthermore developments in the soft supersymmetry breaking sector of N=1 GUTs and FUTs lead to exact RGI relations, i.e. reduction of couplings, in this dimensionful sector of the theory, too. Based on the above theoretical framework phenomenologically consistent FUTs have been constructed. Here we review FUT models based on the SU(5) and SU(3)^3 gauge groups and their predictions. Of particular interest is the Hig...

  10. Revised predictive equations for salt intrusion modelling in estuaries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gisen, J.I.A.; Savenije, H.H.G.; Nijzink, R.C.

    2015-01-01

    For one-dimensional salt intrusion models to be predictive, we need predictive equations to link model parameters to observable hydraulic and geometric variables. The one-dimensional model of Savenije (1993b) made use of predictive equations for the Van der Burgh coefficient $K$ and the dispersion

  11. Models to understand the population-level impact of mixed strain M. tuberculosis infections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sergeev, Rinat; Colijn, Caroline; Cohen, Ted

    2011-07-07

    Over the past decade, numerous studies have identified tuberculosis patients in whom more than one distinct strain of Mycobacterium tuberculosis is present. While it has been shown that these mixed strain infections can reduce the probability of treatment success for individuals simultaneously harboring both drug-sensitive and drug-resistant strains, it is not yet known if and how this phenomenon impacts the long-term dynamics for tuberculosis within communities. Strain-specific differences in immunogenicity and associations with drug resistance suggest that a better understanding of how strains compete within hosts will be necessary to project the effects of mixed strain infections on the future burden of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant tuberculosis. In this paper, we develop a modeling framework that allows us to investigate mechanisms of strain competition within hosts and to assess the long-term effects of such competition on the ecology of strains in a population. These models permit us to systematically evaluate the importance of unknown parameters and to suggest priority areas for future experimental research. Despite the current scarcity of data to inform the values of several model parameters, we are able to draw important qualitative conclusions from this work. We find that mixed strain infections may promote the coexistence of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant strains in two ways. First, mixed strain infections allow a strain with a lower basic reproductive number to persist in a population where it would otherwise be outcompeted if has competitive advantages within a co-infected host. Second, some individuals progressing to phenotypically drug-sensitive tuberculosis from a state of mixed drug-sensitive and drug-resistant infection may retain small subpopulations of drug-resistant bacteria that can flourish once the host is treated with antibiotics. We propose that these types of mixed infections, by increasing the ability of low fitness drug

  12. Full-range stress–strain behaviour of contemporary pipeline steels: Part I. Model description

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hertelé, Stijn; De Waele, Wim; Denys, Rudi; Verstraete, Matthias

    2012-01-01

    The stress–strain relationship of contemporary pipeline steels is often approximated by the relatively simple Ramberg–Osgood equation. However, these steels often show a more complex post-yield behaviour, which can result in significant errors. To address this limitation for cases where an accurate full-range description is needed, the authors developed a new ‘UGent’ stress–strain model which has two independent strain-hardening exponents. This paper compares the UGent model with the Ramberg–Osgood model for a wide range of experimental data, by means of least-squares curve fitting. A significant improvement is observed for contemporary pipeline steels with a yield-to-tensile ratio above 0.80. These steels typically exhibit two distinct stages of strain hardening. In contrast to the Ramberg–Osgood model, both stages are successfully described by the UGent model. A companion paper (Part II) discusses how to find appropriate model parameter values for the UGent model. - Highlights: ► Contemporary pipeline steels often show two strain-hardening stages. ► This phenomenon is progressively apparent as Y/T exceeds 0.80. ► Both stages cannot be simultaneously described by the Ramberg–Osgood model. ► A new “UGent” model provides significantly better descriptions. ► The improvement becomes more pronounced as Y/T increases.

  13. Neutrino nucleosynthesis in supernovae: Shell model predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haxton, W.C.

    1989-01-01

    Almost all of the 3 · 10 53 ergs liberated in a core collapse supernova is radiated as neutrinos by the cooling neutron star. I will argue that these neutrinos interact with nuclei in the ejected shells of the supernovae to produce new elements. It appears that this nucleosynthesis mechanism is responsible for the galactic abundances of 7 Li, 11 B, 19 F, 138 La, and 180 Ta, and contributes significantly to the abundances of about 15 other light nuclei. I discuss shell model predictions for the charged and neutral current allowed and first-forbidden responses of the parent nuclei, as well as the spallation processes that produce the new elements. 18 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  14. Hierarchical Model Predictive Control for Resource Distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendtsen, Jan Dimon; Trangbæk, K; Stoustrup, Jakob

    2010-01-01

    units. The approach is inspired by smart-grid electric power production and consumption systems, where the flexibility of a large number of power producing and/or power consuming units can be exploited in a smart-grid solution. The objective is to accommodate the load variation on the grid, arising......This paper deals with hierarchichal model predictive control (MPC) of distributed systems. A three level hierachical approach is proposed, consisting of a high level MPC controller, a second level of so-called aggregators, controlled by an online MPC-like algorithm, and a lower level of autonomous...... on one hand from varying consumption, on the other hand by natural variations in power production e.g. from wind turbines. The approach presented is based on quadratic optimization and possess the properties of low algorithmic complexity and of scalability. In particular, the proposed design methodology...

  15. Distributed model predictive control made easy

    CERN Document Server

    Negenborn, Rudy

    2014-01-01

    The rapid evolution of computer science, communication, and information technology has enabled the application of control techniques to systems beyond the possibilities of control theory just a decade ago. Critical infrastructures such as electricity, water, traffic and intermodal transport networks are now in the scope of control engineers. The sheer size of such large-scale systems requires the adoption of advanced distributed control approaches. Distributed model predictive control (MPC) is one of the promising control methodologies for control of such systems.   This book provides a state-of-the-art overview of distributed MPC approaches, while at the same time making clear directions of research that deserve more attention. The core and rationale of 35 approaches are carefully explained. Moreover, detailed step-by-step algorithmic descriptions of each approach are provided. These features make the book a comprehensive guide both for those seeking an introduction to distributed MPC as well as for those ...

  16. Model predictive control of a wind turbine modelled in Simpack

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jassmann, U; Matzke, D; Reiter, M; Abel, D; Berroth, J; Schelenz, R; Jacobs, G

    2014-01-01

    Wind turbines (WT) are steadily growing in size to increase their power production, which also causes increasing loads acting on the turbine's components. At the same time large structures, such as the blades and the tower get more flexible. To minimize this impact, the classical control loops for keeping the power production in an optimum state are more and more extended by load alleviation strategies. These additional control loops can be unified by a multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) controller to achieve better balancing of tuning parameters. An example for MIMO control, which has been paid more attention to recently by wind industry, is Model Predictive Control (MPC). In a MPC framework a simplified model of the WT is used to predict its controlled outputs. Based on a user-defined cost function an online optimization calculates the optimal control sequence. Thereby MPC can intrinsically incorporate constraints e.g. of actuators. Turbine models used for calculation within the MPC are typically simplified. For testing and verification usually multi body simulations, such as FAST, BLADED or FLEX5 are used to model system dynamics, but they are still limited in the number of degrees of freedom (DOF). Detailed information about load distribution (e.g. inside the gearbox) cannot be provided by such models. In this paper a Model Predictive Controller is presented and tested in a co-simulation with SlMPACK, a multi body system (MBS) simulation framework used for detailed load analysis. The analysis are performed on the basis of the IME6.0 MBS WT model, described in this paper. It is based on the rotor of the NREL 5MW WT and consists of a detailed representation of the drive train. This takes into account a flexible main shaft and its main bearings with a planetary gearbox, where all components are modelled flexible, as well as a supporting flexible main frame. The wind loads are simulated using the NREL AERODYN v13 code which has been implemented as a routine

  17. Model predictive control of a wind turbine modelled in Simpack

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jassmann, U.; Berroth, J.; Matzke, D.; Schelenz, R.; Reiter, M.; Jacobs, G.; Abel, D.

    2014-06-01

    Wind turbines (WT) are steadily growing in size to increase their power production, which also causes increasing loads acting on the turbine's components. At the same time large structures, such as the blades and the tower get more flexible. To minimize this impact, the classical control loops for keeping the power production in an optimum state are more and more extended by load alleviation strategies. These additional control loops can be unified by a multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) controller to achieve better balancing of tuning parameters. An example for MIMO control, which has been paid more attention to recently by wind industry, is Model Predictive Control (MPC). In a MPC framework a simplified model of the WT is used to predict its controlled outputs. Based on a user-defined cost function an online optimization calculates the optimal control sequence. Thereby MPC can intrinsically incorporate constraints e.g. of actuators. Turbine models used for calculation within the MPC are typically simplified. For testing and verification usually multi body simulations, such as FAST, BLADED or FLEX5 are used to model system dynamics, but they are still limited in the number of degrees of freedom (DOF). Detailed information about load distribution (e.g. inside the gearbox) cannot be provided by such models. In this paper a Model Predictive Controller is presented and tested in a co-simulation with SlMPACK, a multi body system (MBS) simulation framework used for detailed load analysis. The analysis are performed on the basis of the IME6.0 MBS WT model, described in this paper. It is based on the rotor of the NREL 5MW WT and consists of a detailed representation of the drive train. This takes into account a flexible main shaft and its main bearings with a planetary gearbox, where all components are modelled flexible, as well as a supporting flexible main frame. The wind loads are simulated using the NREL AERODYN v13 code which has been implemented as a routine to

  18. Poisson Mixture Regression Models for Heart Disease Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mufudza, Chipo; Erol, Hamza

    2016-01-01

    Early heart disease control can be achieved by high disease prediction and diagnosis efficiency. This paper focuses on the use of model based clustering techniques to predict and diagnose heart disease via Poisson mixture regression models. Analysis and application of Poisson mixture regression models is here addressed under two different classes: standard and concomitant variable mixture regression models. Results show that a two-component concomitant variable Poisson mixture regression model predicts heart disease better than both the standard Poisson mixture regression model and the ordinary general linear Poisson regression model due to its low Bayesian Information Criteria value. Furthermore, a Zero Inflated Poisson Mixture Regression model turned out to be the best model for heart prediction over all models as it both clusters individuals into high or low risk category and predicts rate to heart disease componentwise given clusters available. It is deduced that heart disease prediction can be effectively done by identifying the major risks componentwise using Poisson mixture regression model.

  19. Fatigue life prediction for pressure cast transmission housings using the strain life approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Varenkamp, M. [ZF Friedrichshafen AG, Abteilung TB-1, 88038 Friedrichshafen (Germany); Schoen, M.

    2011-04-15

    Pressure cast transmission housings are structural components of complex shape, which have to fulfil, amongst others, the requirements of structural durability, saving as much weight as possible. The numerical proof of structural durability is carried out using the local strain approach. One challenge is to consider the inhomogeneous material properties, as a consequence of the casting process. It shows, that local porosity is the determining factor for the components fatigue life. Coming from the experiences made using the basic version of the local strain approach the methods used to successfully adjust the procedure for calculating pressure cast components under constant and variable amplitudes are described. (Copyright copyright 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

  20. Modeling of strain effects on the device behaviors of ferroelectric memory field-effect transistors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Feng; Hu, Guangda; Wu, Weibing; Yang, Changhong; Wu, Haitao; Tang, Minghua

    2013-01-01

    The influence of strains on the channel current–gate voltage behaviors and memory windows of ferroelectric memory field-effect transistors (FeMFETs) were studied using an improved model based on the Landau–Devonshire theory. ‘Channel potential–gate voltage’ ferroelectric polarization and silicon surface potential diagrams were constructed for strained single-domain BaTiO 3 FeMFETs. The compressive strains can increase (or decrease) the amplitude of transistor currents and enlarge memory windows. However, tensile strains only decrease the maximum value of transistor currents and compress memory windows. Mismatch strains were found to have a significant influence on the electrical behaviors of the devices, therefore, they must be considered in FeMFET device designing. (fast track communication)

  1. Identification of strain-rate and thermal sensitive material model with an inverse method

    CERN Document Server

    Peroni, L; Peroni, M

    2010-01-01

    This paper describes a numerical inverse method to extract material strength parameters from the experimental data obtained via mechanical tests at different strain-rates and temperatures. It will be shown that this procedure is particularly useful to analyse experimental results when the stress-strain fields in the specimen cannot be correctly described via analytical models. This commonly happens in specimens with no regular shape, in specimens with a regular shape when some instability phenomena occur (for example the necking phenomena in tensile tests that create a strongly heterogeneous stress-strain fields) or in dynamic tests (where the strain-rate field is not constant due to wave propagation phenomena). Furthermore the developed procedure is useful to take into account thermal phenomena generally affecting high strain-rate tests due to the adiabatic overheating related to the conversion of plastic work. The method presented requires strong effort both from experimental and numerical point of view, an...

  2. A constitutive model for particulate-reinforced titanium matrix composites subjected to high strain rates and high temperatures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Song Wei-Dong

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Quasi-static and dynamic tension tests were conducted to study the mechanical properties of particulate-reinforced titanium matrix composites at strain rates ranging from 0.0001/s to 1000/s and at temperatures ranging from 20 °C to 650 °C Based on the experimental results, a constitutive model, which considers the effects of strain rate and temperature on hot deformation behavior, was proposed for particulate-reinforced titanium matrix composites subjected to high strain rates and high temperatures by using Zener-Hollomon equations including Arrhenius terms. All the material constants used in the model were identified by fitting Zener-Hollomon equations against the experimental results. By comparison of theoretical predictions presented by the model with experimental results, a good agreement was achieved, which indicates that this constitutive model can give an accurate and precise estimate for high temperature flow stress for the studied titanium matrix composites and can be used for numerical simulations of hot deformation behavior of the composites.

  3. SEMICONDUCTOR DEVICES: Two-dimensional threshold voltage analytical model of DMG strained-silicon-on-insulator MOSFETs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Li; Hongxia, Liu; Bin, Li; Lei, Cao; Bo, Yuan

    2010-08-01

    For the first time, a simple and accurate two-dimensional analytical model for the surface potential variation along the channel in fully depleted dual-material gate strained-Si-on-insulator (DMG SSOI) MOSFETs is developed. We investigate the improved short channel effect (SCE), hot carrier effect (HCE), drain-induced barrier-lowering (DIBL) and carrier transport efficiency for the novel structure MOSFET. The analytical model takes into account the effects of different metal gate lengths, work functions, the drain bias and Ge mole fraction in the relaxed SiGe buffer. The surface potential in the channel region exhibits a step potential, which can suppress SCE, HCE and DIBL. Also, strained-Si and SOI structure can improve the carrier transport efficiency, with strained-Si being particularly effective. Further, the threshold voltage model correctly predicts a “rollup" in threshold voltage with decreasing channel length ratios or Ge mole fraction in the relaxed SiGe buffer. The validity of the two-dimensional analytical model is verified using numerical simulations.

  4. Healthy Work Revisited: Do Changes in Time Strain Predict Well-Being?

    OpenAIRE

    Moen, Phyllis; Kelly, Erin L.; Lam, Jack

    2013-01-01

    Building on Karasek and Theorell (R. Karasek & T. Theorell, 1990, Healthy work: Stress, productivity, and the reconstruction of working life, New York, NY: Basic Books), we theorized and tested the relationship between time strain (work-time demands and control) and seven self-reported health outcomes. We drew on survey data from 550 employees fielded before and 6 months after the implementation of an organizational intervention, the Results Only Work Environment (ROWE) in a white-collar orga...

  5. Global Longitudinal Strain to Predict Mortality in Patients With Acute Heart Failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jin Joo; Park, Jun-Bean; Park, Jae-Hyeong; Cho, Goo-Yeong

    2018-05-08

    Heart failure (HF) is currently classified according to left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF); however, the prognostic value of LVEF is controversial. Myocardial strain is a prognostic factor independently of LVEF. The authors sought to evaluate the prognostic value of global longitudinal strain (GLS) in patients with HF. GLS was measured in 4,172 consecutive patients with acute HF. Patients were categorized as either HF with reduced (LVEF 12.6%), moderately (8.1% < GLS <12.5%), or severely (GLS ≤8.0%) reduced strain. The primary endpoint was 5-year all-cause mortality. Mean GLS was 10.8%, and mean LVEF was 40%. Overall, 1,740 (40.4%) patients had died at 5 years. Patients with reduced ejection fraction had slightly higher mortality than those with midrange or preserved ejection fraction (41%, 38%, and 39%, respectively; log-rank p = 0.031), whereas patients with reduced strain had significantly higher mortality (severely reduced GLS, 49%; moderately reduced GLS, 38%; mildly reduced GLS, 34%; log-rank p < 0.001). In multivariable analysis, each 1% increase in GLS was associated with a 5% decreased risk for mortality (p < 0.001). Patients with moderate (hazard ratio: 1.31; 95% confidence interval: 1.13 to 1.53) and severe GLS reductions (hazard ratio: 1.61; 95% confidence interval: 1.36 to 1.91) had higher mortality, but LVEF was not associated with mortality. In patients with acute HF, GLS has greater prognostic value than LVEF. Therefore, the authors suggest that GLS should be considered as the standard measurement in all patients with HF. This new concept needs validation in further studies. Copyright © 2018 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Two-dimensional global longitudinal strain is superior to left ventricular ejection fraction in prediction of outcome in patients with left-sided infective endocarditis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauridsen, Trine Kiilerich; Alhede, Christina; Crowley, Anna Lisa

    2018-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Impaired cardiac function is the main predictor of poor outcome in infective endocarditis (IE). Global longitudinal strain (GLS) derived from two-dimensional strain echocardiography has proven superior in prediction of long-term outcome as compared to left ventricular ejection fraction...

  7. Characterization of Burkholderia pseudomallei Strains Using a Murine Intraperitoneal Infection Model and In Vitro Macrophage Assays.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susan L Welkos

    Full Text Available Burkholderia pseudomallei, the etiologic agent of melioidosis, is a gram-negative facultative intracellular bacterium. This bacterium is endemic in Southeast Asia and Northern Australia and can infect humans and animals by several routes. It has also been estimated to present a considerable risk as a potential biothreat agent. There are currently no effective vaccines for B. pseudomallei, and antibiotic treatment can be hampered by nonspecific symptomology, the high incidence of naturally occurring antibiotic resistant strains, and disease chronicity. Accordingly, there is a concerted effort to better characterize B. pseudomallei and its associated disease. Before novel vaccines and therapeutics can be tested in vivo, a well characterized animal model is essential. Previous work has indicated that mice may be a useful animal model. In order to develop standardized animal models of melioidosis, different strains of bacteria must be isolated, propagated, and characterized. Using a murine intraperitoneal (IP infection model, we tested the virulence of 11 B. pseudomallei strains. The IP route offers a reproducible way to rank virulence that can be readily reproduced by other laboratories. This infection route is also useful in distinguishing significant differences in strain virulence that may be masked by the exquisite susceptibility associated with other routes of infection (e.g., inhalational. Additionally, there were several pathologic lesions observed in mice following IP infection. These included varisized abscesses in the spleen, liver, and haired skin. This model indicated that commonly used laboratory strains of B. pseudomallei (i.e., K96243 and 1026b were significantly less virulent as compared to more recently acquired clinical isolates. Additionally, we characterized in vitro strain-associated differences in virulence for macrophages and described a potential inverse relationship between virulence in the IP mouse model of some strains

  8. Characterization of Burkholderia pseudomallei Strains Using a Murine Intraperitoneal Infection Model and In Vitro Macrophage Assays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welkos, Susan L; Klimko, Christopher P; Kern, Steven J; Bearss, Jeremy J; Bozue, Joel A; Bernhards, Robert C; Trevino, Sylvia R; Waag, David M; Amemiya, Kei; Worsham, Patricia L; Cote, Christopher K

    2015-01-01

    Burkholderia pseudomallei, the etiologic agent of melioidosis, is a gram-negative facultative intracellular bacterium. This bacterium is endemic in Southeast Asia and Northern Australia and can infect humans and animals by several routes. It has also been estimated to present a considerable risk as a potential biothreat agent. There are currently no effective vaccines for B. pseudomallei, and antibiotic treatment can be hampered by nonspecific symptomology, the high incidence of naturally occurring antibiotic resistant strains, and disease chronicity. Accordingly, there is a concerted effort to better characterize B. pseudomallei and its associated disease. Before novel vaccines and therapeutics can be tested in vivo, a well characterized animal model is essential. Previous work has indicated that mice may be a useful animal model. In order to develop standardized animal models of melioidosis, different strains of bacteria must be isolated, propagated, and characterized. Using a murine intraperitoneal (IP) infection model, we tested the virulence of 11 B. pseudomallei strains. The IP route offers a reproducible way to rank virulence that can be readily reproduced by other laboratories. This infection route is also useful in distinguishing significant differences in strain virulence that may be masked by the exquisite susceptibility associated with other routes of infection (e.g., inhalational). Additionally, there were several pathologic lesions observed in mice following IP infection. These included varisized abscesses in the spleen, liver, and haired skin. This model indicated that commonly used laboratory strains of B. pseudomallei (i.e., K96243 and 1026b) were significantly less virulent as compared to more recently acquired clinical isolates. Additionally, we characterized in vitro strain-associated differences in virulence for macrophages and described a potential inverse relationship between virulence in the IP mouse model of some strains and in the

  9. Predictive integrated modelling for ITER scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Artaud, J.F.; Imbeaux, F.; Aniel, T.; Basiuk, V.; Eriksson, L.G.; Giruzzi, G.; Hoang, G.T.; Huysmans, G.; Joffrin, E.; Peysson, Y.; Schneider, M.; Thomas, P.

    2005-01-01

    The uncertainty on the prediction of ITER scenarios is evaluated. 2 transport models which have been extensively validated against the multi-machine database are used for the computation of the transport coefficients. The first model is GLF23, the second called Kiauto is a model in which the profile of dilution coefficient is a gyro Bohm-like analytical function, renormalized in order to get profiles consistent with a given global energy confinement scaling. The package of codes CRONOS is used, it gives access to the dynamics of the discharge and allows the study of interplay between heat transport, current diffusion and sources. The main motivation of this work is to study the influence of parameters such plasma current, heat, density, impurities and toroidal moment transport. We can draw the following conclusions: 1) the target Q = 10 can be obtained in ITER hybrid scenario at I p = 13 MA, using either the DS03 two terms scaling or the GLF23 model based on the same pedestal; 2) I p = 11.3 MA, Q = 10 can be reached only assuming a very peaked pressure profile and a low pedestal; 3) at fixed Greenwald fraction, Q increases with density peaking; 4) achieving a stationary q-profile with q > 1 requires a large non-inductive current fraction (80%) that could be provided by 20 to 40 MW of LHCD; and 5) owing to the high temperature the q-profile penetration is delayed and q = 1 is reached about 600 s in ITER hybrid scenario at I p = 13 MA, in the absence of active q-profile control. (A.C.)

  10. Prognostic value of strain and strain rate in the prediction of postoperative atrial fibrillation in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting: a systematic literature review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leila Bigdelu

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Atrial fibrillation (AF is a common dysrhythmia postoperatively after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG. Myocardial strain and strain-rate imaging is used for the assessment of postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF as a new echocardiographic method. Methods: PubMed and Scopus were searched thoroughly using the following search terms: (strain and strain rate AND (atrial fibrillation OR AF on March 2015 to find English articles in which the strain and strain-rate echocardiographic imaging had been used for the evaluation of AF in patients undergone CABG. Full text of the relevant papers was fully reviewed for data extraction.Result: Of overall 6 articles found in PubMed, 10 records found in Scopus and 4 articles found through reference list search, only 6 papers fully met the inclusion criteria for further assessment and data extraction. The results of strain and strain-rate assessment showed that in total of 542 patients undergoing CABG, POAF occurred in 106 patients. Studies showed that the reduction of left atrial (LA strain rate is correlated with AF. Consistently, the results of present review showed that LA strain and strain-rate in patients who developed AF postoperatively after CABG are significantly reduced, suggesting that strain and strain-rate could be a predictor of POAF.Conclusion: Based on the obtained results, strain and strain-rate is a suitable and accurate echocardiographic technique in the assessment of left atrial function , and it might be helpful to detect the patients who are at high risk of POAF.

  11. Repeated Strains, Social Control, Social Learning, and Delinquency: Testing an Integrated Model of General Strain Theory in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bao, Wan-Ning; Haas, Ain; Chen, Xiaojin; Pi, Yijun

    2014-01-01

    In Agnew's general strain theory, repeated strains can generate crime and delinquency by reducing social control and fostering social learning of crime. Using a sample of 615 middle-and high-school students in China, this study examines how social control and social learning variables mediate the effect of repeated strains in school and at home on…

  12. Toward a consistent model for strain accrual and release for the New Madrid Seismic Zone, central United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hough, S.E.; Page, M.

    2011-01-01

    At the heart of the conundrum of seismogenesis in the New Madrid Seismic Zone is the apparently substantial discrepancy between low strain rate and high recent seismic moment release. In this study we revisit the magnitudes of the four principal 1811–1812 earthquakes using intensity values determined from individual assessments from four experts. Using these values and the grid search method of Bakun and Wentworth (1997), we estimate magnitudes around 7.0 for all four events, values that are significantly lower than previously published magnitude estimates based on macroseismic intensities. We further show that the strain rate predicted from postglacial rebound is sufficient to produce a sequence with the moment release of one Mmax6.8 every 500 years, a rate that is much lower than previous estimates of late Holocene moment release. However, Mw6.8 is at the low end of the uncertainty range inferred from analysis of intensities for the largest 1811–1812 event. We show that Mw6.8 is also a reasonable value for the largest main shock given a plausible rupture scenario. One can also construct a range of consistent models that permit a somewhat higher Mmax, with a longer average recurrence rate. It is thus possible to reconcile predicted strain and seismic moment release rates with alternative models: one in which 1811–1812 sequences occur every 500 years, with the largest events being Mmax∼6.8, or one in which sequences occur, on average, less frequently, with Mmax of ∼7.0. Both models predict that the late Holocene rate of activity will continue for the next few to 10 thousand years.

  13. Sands subjected to repetitive vertical loading under zero lateral strain: accumulation models, terminal densities, and settlement

    KAUST Repository

    Chong, Song Hun

    2016-08-09

    Geosystems often experience numerous loading cycles. Plastic strain accumulation during repetitive mechanical loads can lead to shear shakedown or continued shear ratcheting; in all cases, volumetric strains diminish as the specimen evolves towards terminal density. Previously suggested models and new functions are identified to fit plastic strain accumulation data. All accumulation models are formulated to capture terminal density (volumetric strain) and either shakedown or ratcheting (shear strain). Repetitive vertical loading tests under zero lateral strain conditions are conducted using three different sands packed at initially low and high densities. Test results show that plastic strain accumulation for all sands and density conditions can be captured in the same dimensionless plot defined in terms of the initial relative density, terminal density, and ratio between the amplitude of the repetitive load and the initial static load. This observation allows us to advance a simple but robust procedure to estimate the maximum one-dimensional settlement that a foundation could experience if subjected to repetitive loads. © 2016, Canadian Science Publishing. All rights reserved.

  14. A Constitutive Model for Superelastic Shape Memory Alloys Considering the Influence of Strain Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Qian

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Shape memory alloys (SMAs are a relatively new class of functional materials, exhibiting special thermomechanical behaviors, such as shape memory effect and superelasticity, which enable their applications in seismic engineering as energy dissipation devices. This paper investigates the properties of superelastic NiTi shape memory alloys, emphasizing the influence of strain rate on superelastic behavior under various strain amplitudes by cyclic tensile tests. A novel constitutive equation based on Graesser and Cozzarelli’s model is proposed to describe the strain-rate-dependent hysteretic behavior of superelastic SMAs at different strain levels. A stress variable including the influence of strain rate is introduced into Graesser and Cozzarelli’s model. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed constitutive equation, experiments on superelastic NiTi wires with different strain rates and strain levels are conducted. Numerical simulation results based on the proposed constitutive equation and experimental results are in good agreement. The findings in this paper will assist the future design of superelastic SMA-based energy dissipation devices for seismic protection of structures.

  15. Numerical analysis of strain localization for transversely isotropic model with non-coaxial flow rule

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Ding; Cong-cong, Yu; Chen-hui, Wu; Zheng-yi, Shu

    2018-03-01

    To analyse the strain localization behavior of geomaterials, the forward Euler schemes and the tangent modulus matrix are formulated based on the transversely isotropic yield criterion with non-coaxial flow rule developed by Lade, the program code is implemented based on the user subroutine (UMAT) of ABAQUS. The influence of the material principal direction on the strain localization and the bearing capacity of the structure are investigated and analyzed. Numerical results show the validity and performance of the proposed model in simulating the strain localization behavior of geostructures.

  16. Modeling Shock Induced Plasticity in Copper Single Crystal: Numerical and Strain Localization Issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shehadeh, M

    2011-01-01

    Multiscale dislocation dynamics plasticity (MDDP) simulations are carried out to address the following issues in modeling shock-induced plasticity: 1- the effect of finite element (FE) boundary conditions on shock wave characteristics and wave-dislocation interaction, 2- the effect of the evolution of the dislocation microstructure on lattice rotation and strain localization. While uniaxial strain is achieved with high accuracy using confined boundary condition, periodic boundary condition yields a disturbed wave profile due the edge effect. Including lattice rotation in the analysis leads to higher dislocation density and more localized plastic strain. (author)

  17. Transferable tight-binding model for strained group IV and III-V materials and heterostructures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Yaohua; Povolotskyi, Michael; Kubis, Tillmann; Boykin, Timothy B.; Klimeck, Gerhard

    2016-07-01

    It is critical to capture the effect due to strain and material interface for device level transistor modeling. We introduce a transferable s p3d5s* tight-binding model with nearest-neighbor interactions for arbitrarily strained group IV and III-V materials. The tight-binding model is parametrized with respect to hybrid functional (HSE06) calculations for varieties of strained systems. The tight-binding calculations of ultrasmall superlattices formed by group IV and group III-V materials show good agreement with the corresponding HSE06 calculations. The application of the tight-binding model to superlattices demonstrates that the transferable tight-binding model with nearest-neighbor interactions can be obtained for group IV and III-V materials.

  18. Model for field-induced reorientation strain in magnetic shape memory alloy with tensile and compressive loads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu Yuping; Dui Guansuo

    2008-01-01

    A model based on the micromechanical and the thermodynamic theory is presented for field-induced martensite reorientation in magnetic shape memory alloy (MSMA) single crystals. The influence of variants morphology and the material property to constitutive behavior is considered. The nonlinear and hysteretic strain and magnetization response of MSMA are investigated for two main loading cases, namely the magnetic field-induced reorientation of variants under constant compressive stress and tensile stress. The predicted results have shown that increasing tensile loading reduces the required field for actuation, while increasing compressive loads result in the required magnetic field growing considerably. It is helpful to design the intelligent composite with MSMA fibers

  19. Left ventricular shear strain in model and experiment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ubbink, S.; Bovendeerd, P.H.M.; Delhaas, T.; Arts, M.G.J.; Vosse, van de F.N.

    2005-01-01

    Mathematical modeling of cardiac mechanics could be a useful clinical tool, both in translating measured abnormalities in cardiac deformation into the underlying pathology, and in selecting a propertreatment. We investigated to what extent a previously published model of cardiac mechanics could

  20. Integrating geophysics and hydrology for reducing the uncertainty of groundwater model predictions and improved prediction performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Nikolaj Kruse; Christensen, Steen; Ferre, Ty

    the integration of geophysical data in the construction of a groundwater model increases the prediction performance. We suggest that modelers should perform a hydrogeophysical “test-bench” analysis of the likely value of geophysics data for improving groundwater model prediction performance before actually...... and the resulting predictions can be compared with predictions from the ‘true’ model. By performing this analysis we expect to give the modeler insight into how the uncertainty of model-based prediction can be reduced.......A major purpose of groundwater modeling is to help decision-makers in efforts to manage the natural environment. Increasingly, it is recognized that both the predictions of interest and their associated uncertainties should be quantified to support robust decision making. In particular, decision...

  1. Viscoplastic behavior of zirconium alloys in the temperatures range 20 deg C - 400 deg C: characterization and modeling of strain ageing phenomena

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graff, St.

    2006-10-01

    The anomalous strain rate sensitivity of zirconium alloys over the temperatures range 20-600 C has been widely reported in the literature. This unconventional behavior is related to the existence of strain ageing phenomenon which results from the combined action of thermally activated diffusion of foreign atoms to and along dislocation cores and the long range of dislocations interactions. The important role of interstitial and substitutional atoms in zirconium alloys, responsible for strain ageing and the lack of information about the domain where strain ageing is active have not been yet adequately characterized because of the multiplicity of alloying elements and chemical impurities. The aim of this work is to characterize experimentally the range of temperatures and strain rates where strain ageing is active on the macroscopic and mesoscopic scales. We propose also a predictive approach of the strain ageing effects, using the macroscopic strain ageing model suggested by McCormick (McCormick, 1988; Zhang et al., 2000). Specific zirconium alloys were elaborated starting from a crystal bar of zirconium with 2.2 wt% hafnium and very low oxygen content (80 wt ppm), called ZrHf. Another substitutional atom was added to the solid solution under the form of 1 wt% niobium. Some zirconium alloys were doped with oxygen, others were not. All of them were characterized by various mechanical tests (standard tensile tests, tensile tests with strain rate changes, relaxation tests with unloading). The experimental results were compared with those for the standard oxygen doped zirconium alloy (1300 wt ppm) studied by Pujol (Pujol, 1994) and called Zr702. The following experimental evidences of the age-hardening phenomena were collected and then modeled: 1) low and/or negative strain rate sensitivity around 200-300 C, 2) creep arrest at 200 C, 3) relaxation arrest at 200 C and 300 C, 4) plastic strain heterogeneities observed in laser extensometry on the millimeter scale

  2. Viscoplastic behavior of zirconium alloys in the temperatures range 20 deg C - 400 deg C: characterization and modeling of strain ageing phenomena

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Graff, St

    2006-10-15

    The anomalous strain rate sensitivity of zirconium alloys over the temperatures range 20-600 C has been widely reported in the literature. This unconventional behavior is related to the existence of strain ageing phenomenon which results from the combined action of thermally activated diffusion of foreign atoms to and along dislocation cores and the long range of dislocations interactions. The important role of interstitial and substitutional atoms in zirconium alloys, responsible for strain ageing and the lack of information about the domain where strain ageing is active have not been yet adequately characterized because of the multiplicity of alloying elements and chemical impurities. The aim of this work is to characterize experimentally the range of temperatures and strain rates where strain ageing is active on the macroscopic and mesoscopic scales. We propose also a predictive approach of the strain ageing effects, using the macroscopic strain ageing model suggested by McCormick (McCormick, 1988; Zhang et al., 2000). Specific zirconium alloys were elaborated starting from a crystal bar of zirconium with 2.2 wt% hafnium and very low oxygen content (80 wt ppm), called ZrHf. Another substitutional atom was added to the solid solution under the form of 1 wt% niobium. Some zirconium alloys were doped with oxygen, others were not. All of them were characterized by various mechanical tests (standard tensile tests, tensile tests with strain rate changes, relaxation tests with unloading). The experimental results were compared with those for the standard oxygen doped zirconium alloy (1300 wt ppm) studied by Pujol (Pujol, 1994) and called Zr702. The following experimental evidences of the age-hardening phenomena were collected and then modeled: 1) low and/or negative strain rate sensitivity around 200-300 C, 2) creep arrest at 200 C, 3) relaxation arrest at 200 C and 300 C, 4) plastic strain heterogeneities observed in laser extensometry on the millimeter scale

  3. Ductile Tearing of Thin Aluminum Plates Under Blast Loading. Predictions with Fully Coupled Models and Biaxial Material Response Characterization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Corona, Edmundo [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gullerud, Arne S. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Haulenbeek, Kimberly K. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Reu, Phillip L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-06-01

    The work presented in this report concerns the response and failure of thin 2024- T3 aluminum alloy circular plates to a blast load produced by the detonation of a nearby spherical charge. The plates were fully clamped around the circumference and the explosive charge was located centrally with respect to the plate. The principal objective was to conduct a numerical model validation study by comparing the results of predictions to experimental measurements of plate deformation and failure for charges with masses in the vicinity of the threshold between no tearing and tearing of the plates. Stereo digital image correlation data was acquired for all tests to measure the deflection and strains in the plates. The size of the virtual strain gage in the measurements, however, was relatively large, so the strain measurements have to be interpreted accordingly as lower bounds of the actual strains in the plate and of the severity of the strain gradients. A fully coupled interaction model between the blast and the deflection of the structure was considered. The results of the validation exercise indicated that the model predicted the deflection of the plates reasonably accurately as well as the distribution of strain on the plate. The estimation of the threshold charge based on a critical value of equivalent plastic strain measured in a bulge test, however, was not accurate. This in spite of efforts to determine the failure strain of the aluminum sheet under biaxial stress conditions. Further work is needed to be able to predict plate tearing with some degree of confidence. Given the current technology, at least one test under the actual blast conditions where the plate tears is needed to calibrate the value of equivalent plastic strain when failure occurs in the numerical model. Once that has been determined, the question of the explosive mass value at the threshold could be addressed with more confidence.

  4. Finite element implementation of the Hoek-Brown material model with general strain softening behavior

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Emil Smed; Clausen, Johan Christian; Damkilde, Lars

    2015-01-01

    A numerical implementation of the Hoek–Brown criterion is presented, which is capable of modeling different post-failure behaviors observed in jointed rock mass. This is done by making the material parameters a function of the accumulated plastic strain. The implementation is for use in finite...... for perfectly-plastic, brittle and strain softening material behavior and the results are compared with known solutions....

  5. Tensile strained Ge tunnel field-effect transistors: k · p material modeling and numerical device simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kao, Kuo-Hsing; De Meyer, Kristin; Verhulst, Anne S.; Van de Put, Maarten; Soree, Bart; Magnus, Wim; Vandenberghe, William G.

    2014-01-01

    Group IV based tunnel field-effect transistors generally show lower on-current than III-V based devices because of the weaker phonon-assisted tunneling transitions in the group IV indirect bandgap materials. Direct tunneling in Ge, however, can be enhanced by strain engineering. In this work, we use a 30-band k · p method to calculate the band structure of biaxial tensile strained Ge and then extract the bandgaps and effective masses at Γ and L symmetry points in k-space, from which the parameters for the direct and indirect band-to-band tunneling (BTBT) models are determined. While transitions from the heavy and light hole valence bands to the conduction band edge at the L point are always bridged by phonon scattering, we highlight a new finding that only the light-hole-like valence band is strongly coupling to the conduction band at the Γ point even in the presence of strain based on the 30-band k · p analysis. By utilizing a Technology Computer Aided Design simulator equipped with the calculated band-to-band tunneling BTBT models, the electrical characteristics of tensile strained Ge point and line tunneling devices are self-consistently computed considering multiple dynamic nonlocal tunnel paths. The influence of field-induced quantum confinement on the tunneling onset is included. Our simulation predicts that an on-current up to 160 (260) μA/μm can be achieved along with on/off ratio > 10 6 for V DD  = 0.5 V by the n-type (p-type) line tunneling device made of 2.5% biaxial tensile strained Ge

  6. Tensile strained Ge tunnel field-effect transistors: k · p material modeling and numerical device simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kao, Kuo-Hsing; De Meyer, Kristin [IMEC, Kapeldreef 75, 3001 Leuven (Belgium); Department of Electrical Engineering, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, 3000 Leuven (Belgium); Verhulst, Anne S. [IMEC, Kapeldreef 75, 3001 Leuven (Belgium); Van de Put, Maarten; Soree, Bart; Magnus, Wim [IMEC, Kapeldreef 75, 3001 Leuven (Belgium); Department of Physics, Universiteit Antwerpen, 2000 Antwerpen (Belgium); Vandenberghe, William G. [Department of Materials Science and Engineering, University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, Texas 75080 (United States)

    2014-01-28

    Group IV based tunnel field-effect transistors generally show lower on-current than III-V based devices because of the weaker phonon-assisted tunneling transitions in the group IV indirect bandgap materials. Direct tunneling in Ge, however, can be enhanced by strain engineering. In this work, we use a 30-band k · p method to calculate the band structure of biaxial tensile strained Ge and then extract the bandgaps and effective masses at Γ and L symmetry points in k-space, from which the parameters for the direct and indirect band-to-band tunneling (BTBT) models are determined. While transitions from the heavy and light hole valence bands to the conduction band edge at the L point are always bridged by phonon scattering, we highlight a new finding that only the light-hole-like valence band is strongly coupling to the conduction band at the Γ point even in the presence of strain based on the 30-band k · p analysis. By utilizing a Technology Computer Aided Design simulator equipped with the calculated band-to-band tunneling BTBT models, the electrical characteristics of tensile strained Ge point and line tunneling devices are self-consistently computed considering multiple dynamic nonlocal tunnel paths. The influence of field-induced quantum confinement on the tunneling onset is included. Our simulation predicts that an on-current up to 160 (260) μA/μm can be achieved along with on/off ratio > 10{sup 6} for V{sub DD} = 0.5 V by the n-type (p-type) line tunneling device made of 2.5% biaxial tensile strained Ge.

  7. On the importance of retaining stresses and strains in repositioning computational biomechanical models of the cervical spine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boakye-Yiadom, Solomon; Cronin, Duane S

    2018-01-01

    Human body models are created in a specific posture and often repositioned and analyzed without retaining stresses that result from repositioning. For example, repositioning a human neck model within the physiological range of motion to a head-turned posture prior to an impact results in initial stresses within the tissues distracted from their neutral position. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of repositioning on the subsequent kinetics, kinematics, and failure modes, of a lower cervical spine motion segment, to support future research at the full neck level. Repositioning was investigated for 3 modes (tension, flexion, and extension) and 3 load cases. The model was repositioned and loaded to failure in one continuous load history (case 1), or repositioned then restarted with retained stresses and loaded to failure (case 2). In case 3, the model was repositioned and then restarted in a stress-free state, representing current repositioning methods. Not retaining the repositioning stresses and strains resulted in different kinetics, kinematics, or failure modes, depending on the mode of loading. For the motion segment model, the differences were associated with the intervertebral disc fiber reorientation and load distribution, because the disc underwent the largest deformation during repositioning. This study demonstrated that repositioning led to altered response and tissue failure, which is critical for computational models intended to predict injury at the tissue level. It is recommended that stresses and strains be included and retained for subsequent analysis when repositioning a human computational neck model. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Neural Fuzzy Inference System-Based Weather Prediction Model and Its Precipitation Predicting Experiment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Lu

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available We propose a weather prediction model in this article based on neural network and fuzzy inference system (NFIS-WPM, and then apply it to predict daily fuzzy precipitation given meteorological premises for testing. The model consists of two parts: the first part is the “fuzzy rule-based neural network”, which simulates sequential relations among fuzzy sets using artificial neural network; and the second part is the “neural fuzzy inference system”, which is based on the first part, but could learn new fuzzy rules from the previous ones according to the algorithm we proposed. NFIS-WPM (High Pro and NFIS-WPM (Ave are improved versions of this model. It is well known that the need for accurate weather prediction is apparent when considering the benefits. However, the excessive pursuit of accuracy in weather prediction makes some of the “accurate” prediction results meaningless and the numerical prediction model is often complex and time-consuming. By adapting this novel model to a precipitation prediction problem, we make the predicted outcomes of precipitation more accurate and the prediction methods simpler than by using the complex numerical forecasting model that would occupy large computation resources, be time-consuming and which has a low predictive accuracy rate. Accordingly, we achieve more accurate predictive precipitation results than by using traditional artificial neural networks that have low predictive accuracy.

  9. Determination of the strain generated in InAs/InP quantum wires: prediction of nucleation sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molina, S I; Ben, T; Sales, D L; Pizarro, J; Galindo, P L; Varela, M; Pennycook, S J; Fuster, D; Gonzalez, Y; Gonzalez, L

    2006-01-01

    The compositional distribution in a self-assembled InAs(P) quantum wire grown by molecular beam epitaxy on an InP(001) substrate has been determined by electron energy loss spectrum imaging. We have determined the strain and stress fields generated in and around this wire capped with a 5 nm InP layer by finite element calculations using as input the compositional map experimentally obtained. Preferential sites for nucleation of wires grown on the surface of this InP capping layer are predicted, based on chemical potential minimization, from the determined strain and stress fields on this surface. The determined preferential sites for wire nucleation agree with their experimentally measured locations. The method used in this paper, which combines electron energy loss spectroscopy, high-resolution Z contrast imaging, and elastic theory finite element calculations, is believed to be a valuable technique of wide applicability for predicting the preferential nucleation sites of epitaxial self-assembled nano-objects

  10. Determination of the strain generated in InAs/InP quantum wires: prediction of nucleation sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Molina, S I [Departamento de Ciencia de los Materiales e I.M. y Q.I., Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Cadiz, Campus RIo San Pedro, s/n, 11510 Puerto Real, Cadiz (Spain); Ben, T [Departamento de Ciencia de los Materiales e I.M. y Q.I., Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Cadiz, Campus RIo San Pedro, s/n, 11510 Puerto Real, Cadiz (Spain); Sales, D L [Departamento de Ciencia de los Materiales e I.M. y Q.I., Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Cadiz, Campus RIo San Pedro, s/n, 11510 Puerto Real, Cadiz (Spain); Pizarro, J [Departamento de Lenguajes y Sistemas Informaticos, CASEM, Universidad de Cadiz, Campus RIo San Pedro, s/n, 11510 Puerto Real, Cadiz (Spain); Galindo, P L [Departamento de Lenguajes y Sistemas Informaticos, CASEM, Universidad de Cadiz, Campus RIo San Pedro, s/n, 11510 Puerto Real, Cadiz (Spain); Varela, M [Condensed Matter Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 (United States); Pennycook, S J [Condensed Matter Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 (United States); Fuster, D [Instituto de Microelectronica de Madrid (CNM, CSIC), Isaac Newton 8, 28760 Tres Cantos, Madrid (Spain); Gonzalez, Y [Instituto de Microelectronica de Madrid (CNM, CSIC), Isaac Newton 8, 28760 Tres Cantos, Madrid (Spain); Gonzalez, L [Instituto de Microelectronica de Madrid (CNM, CSIC), Isaac Newton 8, 28760 Tres Cantos, Madrid (Spain)

    2006-11-28

    The compositional distribution in a self-assembled InAs(P) quantum wire grown by molecular beam epitaxy on an InP(001) substrate has been determined by electron energy loss spectrum imaging. We have determined the strain and stress fields generated in and around this wire capped with a 5 nm InP layer by finite element calculations using as input the compositional map experimentally obtained. Preferential sites for nucleation of wires grown on the surface of this InP capping layer are predicted, based on chemical potential minimization, from the determined strain and stress fields on this surface. The determined preferential sites for wire nucleation agree with their experimentally measured locations. The method used in this paper, which combines electron energy loss spectroscopy, high-resolution Z contrast imaging, and elastic theory finite element calculations, is believed to be a valuable technique of wide applicability for predicting the preferential nucleation sites of epitaxial self-assembled nano-objects.

  11. Appropriate models for estimating stresses and strains in asphalt layers

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Jooste, FJ

    1998-09-01

    Full Text Available The broad objective is to make recommendations for appropriate modelling procedures to be used in the structural design of asphalt layers. Findings of this investigation are intended to be used in refining and validating existing asphalt pavement...

  12. Foundation Settlement Prediction Based on a Novel NGM Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng-Yu Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Prediction of foundation or subgrade settlement is very important during engineering construction. According to the fact that there are lots of settlement-time sequences with a nonhomogeneous index trend, a novel grey forecasting model called NGM (1,1,k,c model is proposed in this paper. With an optimized whitenization differential equation, the proposed NGM (1,1,k,c model has the property of white exponential law coincidence and can predict a pure nonhomogeneous index sequence precisely. We used two case studies to verify the predictive effect of NGM (1,1,k,c model for settlement prediction. The results show that this model can achieve excellent prediction accuracy; thus, the model is quite suitable for simulation and prediction of approximate nonhomogeneous index sequence and has excellent application value in settlement prediction.

  13. Nonconvex model predictive control for commercial refrigeration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gybel Hovgaard, Tobias; Boyd, Stephen; Larsen, Lars F. S.; Bagterp Jørgensen, John

    2013-08-01

    We consider the control of a commercial multi-zone refrigeration system, consisting of several cooling units that share a common compressor, and is used to cool multiple areas or rooms. In each time period we choose cooling capacity to each unit and a common evaporation temperature. The goal is to minimise the total energy cost, using real-time electricity prices, while obeying temperature constraints on the zones. We propose a variation on model predictive control to achieve this goal. When the right variables are used, the dynamics of the system are linear, and the constraints are convex. The cost function, however, is nonconvex due to the temperature dependence of thermodynamic efficiency. To handle this nonconvexity we propose a sequential convex optimisation method, which typically converges in fewer than 5 or so iterations. We employ a fast convex quadratic programming solver to carry out the iterations, which is more than fast enough to run in real time. We demonstrate our method on a realistic model, with a full year simulation and 15-minute time periods, using historical electricity prices and weather data, as well as random variations in thermal load. These simulations show substantial cost savings, on the order of 30%, compared to a standard thermostat-based control system. Perhaps more important, we see that the method exhibits sophisticated response to real-time variations in electricity prices. This demand response is critical to help balance real-time uncertainties in generation capacity associated with large penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources in a future smart grid.

  14. Prediction of thermal coagulation from the instantaneous strain distribution induced by high-intensity focused ultrasound

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwasaki, Ryosuke; Takagi, Ryo; Tomiyasu, Kentaro; Yoshizawa, Shin; Umemura, Shin-ichiro

    2017-07-01

    The targeting of the ultrasound beam and the prediction of thermal lesion formation in advance are the requirements for monitoring high-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) treatment with safety and reproducibility. To visualize the HIFU focal zone, we utilized an acoustic radiation force impulse (ARFI) imaging-based method. After inducing displacements inside tissues with pulsed HIFU called the push pulse exposure, the distribution of axial displacements started expanding and moving. To acquire RF data immediately after and during the HIFU push pulse exposure to improve prediction accuracy, we attempted methods using extrapolation estimation and applying HIFU noise elimination. The distributions going back in the time domain from the end of push pulse exposure are in good agreement with tissue coagulation at the center. The results suggest that the proposed focal zone visualization employing pulsed HIFU entailing the high-speed ARFI imaging method is useful for the prediction of thermal coagulation in advance.

  15. Predictive Modelling of Heavy Metals in Urban Lakes

    OpenAIRE

    Lindström, Martin

    2000-01-01

    Heavy metals are well-known environmental pollutants. In this thesis predictive models for heavy metals in urban lakes are discussed and new models presented. The base of predictive modelling is empirical data from field investigations of many ecosystems covering a wide range of ecosystem characteristics. Predictive models focus on the variabilities among lakes and processes controlling the major metal fluxes. Sediment and water data for this study were collected from ten small lakes in the ...

  16. Finite element modeling to determine thermal residual strain distribution of bonded composite repairs for structural health monitoring design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Wayne; Jones, Rhys; Davis, Claire; Galea, Stephen C.

    2002-11-01

    The economic implication of fleet upgrades, particularly in Australia with military aircraft such as the F-111 and F/A-18, has led to an increasing reliance on composite repair technology to address fatigue and corrosion-affected aircraft components. The increasing use of such repairs has led to a research effort to develop various in-situ health monitoring systems that may be incorporated with a repair. This paper reports on the development of a theoretical methodology that uses finite element analysis (FEA) to model the strain profiles which optical sensors, on or within the patch, will be exposed to under various operational scenarios, including load and disbond. Numerical techniques are then used to predict the fibre Bragg grating (FBG) reflections which occur with these strain profiles. The quality of these reflection are a key consideration when designing FBG based structural health monitoring (SHM) systems. This information can be used to optimise the location of both surface mounted, and embedded sensors, and determine feasibility of SHM system design. Research was conducted into the thermal residual strain (TRS) within the patch. A finite element study revealed the presence of significant thermal residual strain gradients along the surface of the tapered region of the patch. As Bragg gratings are particularly sensitive to strain gradients, (producing a result similar to a chirped grating) the strain gradient on the composite at potential sensor locations both under load, and in the event of disbond was considered. A sufficiently high gradient leads to an altered Bragg reflection. These spurious reflections need to be considered, and theoretically obtained reflections can provide information to allow for load scenarios where the Bragg shift is not a smooth, well defined peak. It can also be shown that embedded fibres offer a higher average thermal residual strain reading, while being subject to a much lower strain gradient. This particularly favors the

  17. Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleixner, Stephanie; Keenlyside, Noel S.; Demissie, Teferi D.; Counillon, François; Wang, Yiguo; Viste, Ellen

    2017-11-01

    The Ethiopian economy and population is strongly dependent on rainfall. Operational seasonal predictions for the main rainy season (Kiremt, June-September) are based on statistical approaches with Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) as the main predictor. Here we analyse dynamical predictions from 11 coupled general circulation models for the Kiremt seasons from 1985-2005 with the forecasts starting from the beginning of May. We find skillful predictions from three of the 11 models, but no model beats a simple linear prediction model based on the predicted Niño3.4 indices. The skill of the individual models for dynamically predicting Kiremt rainfall depends on the strength of the teleconnection between Kiremt rainfall and concurrent Pacific SST in the models. Models that do not simulate this teleconnection fail to capture the observed relationship between Kiremt rainfall and the large-scale Walker circulation.

  18. Biomechanical Strain Exacerbates Inflammation on a Progeria-on-a-Chip Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ribas, J.; Zhang, Y.S.; Pitrez, P.R.; Leijten, Jeroen Christianus Hermanus; Miscuglio, M.; Rouwkema, Jeroen; Dokmeci, M.R.; Nissan, X.; Ferreira, L.; Khademhosseini, A.

    2017-01-01

    A progeria-on-a-chip model is engineered to recapitulate the biomechanical dynamics of vascular disease and aging. The model shows an exacerbated injury response to strain and is rescued by pharmacological treatments. The progeria-on-a-chip is expected to drive the discovery of new drugs and to

  19. MODELLING OF DYNAMIC SPEED LIMITS USING THE MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey Borisovich Nikolaev

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The article considers the issues of traffic management using intelligent system “Car-Road” (IVHS, which consist of interacting intelligent vehicles (IV and intelligent roadside controllers. Vehicles are organized in convoy with small distances between them. All vehicles are assumed to be fully automated (throttle control, braking, steering. Proposed approaches for determining speed limits for traffic cars on the motorway using a model predictive control (MPC. The article proposes an approach to dynamic speed limit to minimize the downtime of vehicles in traffic.

  20. Software-engineering-based model for mitigating Repetitive Strain ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The incorporation of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in virtually all facets of human endeavours has fostered the use of computers. This has induced Repetitive Stress Injury (RSI) for continuous and persistent computer users. Proposing a software engineering model capable of enacted RSI force break ...

  1. Multistrain models predict sequential multidrug treatment strategies to result in less antimicrobial resistance than combination treatment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahmad, Amais; Zachariasen, Camilla; Christiansen, Lasse Engbo

    2016-01-01

    generated by a mathematical model of the competitive growth of multiple strains of Escherichia coli.Results: Simulation studies showed that sequential use of tetracycline and ampicillin reduced the level of double resistance, when compared to the combination treatment. The effect of the cycling frequency...... frequency did not play a role in suppressing the growth of resistant strains, but the specific order of the two antimicrobials did. Predictions made from the study could be used to redesign multidrug treatment strategies not only for intramuscular treatment in pigs, but also for other dosing routes.......Background: Combination treatment is increasingly used to fight infections caused by bacteria resistant to two or more antimicrobials. While multiple studies have evaluated treatment strategies to minimize the emergence of resistant strains for single antimicrobial treatment, fewer studies have...

  2. The contribution of the expanding shell test to the modeling of elastoplaticity at high strain rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Llorca, Fabrice; Buy, Francois

    2002-01-01

    The expanding shell test allows to load a material in the domain of high strain levels while strain rate is about 104s-1. This test submits an hemisphere to a radial expanding free flight, using a pyrotechnic device. The experiment (experimental apparatus, measurements...) is described with the difficulties encountered for the interpretation of the experimental data. Under some assumptions, the numerical transformation of radial velocities gives indications about the evolution of the strain, stress, strain rate and temperature rise, this last one being related to plastic work. We show how it is possible to associate both analytical and numerical approaches. Numerical simulation of the test is presented in a companion paper (see [Buy01]). Results obtained for copper, tantalum and TA6V4 are presented. The contribution of this test to the modeling of elastoplastic behavior is discussed and further works are proposed

  3. Chimera states in multi-strain epidemic models with temporary immunity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Larissa; Bassett, Jason; Hövel, Philipp; Kyrychko, Yuliya N.; Blyuss, Konstantin B.

    2017-11-01

    We investigate a time-delayed epidemic model for multi-strain diseases with temporary immunity. In the absence of cross-immunity between strains, dynamics of each individual strain exhibit emergence and annihilation of limit cycles due to a Hopf bifurcation of the endemic equilibrium, and a saddle-node bifurcation of limit cycles depending on the time delay associated with duration of temporary immunity. Effects of all-to-all and non-local coupling topologies are systematically investigated by means of numerical simulations, and they suggest that cross-immunity is able to induce a diverse range of complex dynamical behaviors and synchronization patterns, including discrete traveling waves, solitary states, and amplitude chimeras. Interestingly, chimera states are observed for narrower cross-immunity kernels, which can have profound implications for understanding the dynamics of multi-strain diseases.

  4. A Simplified Micromechanical Modeling Approach to Predict the Tensile Flow Curve Behavior of Dual-Phase Steels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nanda, Tarun; Kumar, B. Ravi; Singh, Vishal

    2017-11-01

    Micromechanical modeling is used to predict material's tensile flow curve behavior based on microstructural characteristics. This research develops a simplified micromechanical modeling approach for predicting flow curve behavior of dual-phase steels. The existing literature reports on two broad approaches for determining tensile flow curve of these steels. The modeling approach developed in this work attempts to overcome specific limitations of the existing two approaches. This approach combines dislocation-based strain-hardening method with rule of mixtures. In the first step of modeling, `dislocation-based strain-hardening method' was employed to predict tensile behavior of individual phases of ferrite and martensite. In the second step, the individual flow curves were combined using `rule of mixtures,' to obtain the composite dual-phase flow behavior. To check accuracy of proposed model, four distinct dual-phase microstructures comprising of different ferrite grain size, martensite fraction, and carbon content in martensite were processed by annealing experiments. The true stress-strain curves for various microstructures were predicted with the newly developed micromechanical model. The results of micromechanical model matched closely with those of actual tensile tests. Thus, this micromechanical modeling approach can be used to predict and optimize the tensile flow behavior of dual-phase steels.

  5. Substructure based modeling of nickel single crystals cycled at low plastic strain amplitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Dong

    In this dissertation a meso-scale, substructure-based, composite single crystal model is fully developed from the simple uniaxial model to the 3-D finite element method (FEM) model with explicit substructures and further with substructure evolution parameters, to simulate the completely reversed, strain controlled, low plastic strain amplitude cyclic deformation of nickel single crystals. Rate-dependent viscoplasticity and Armstrong-Frederick type kinematic hardening rules are applied to substructures on slip systems in the model to describe the kinematic hardening behavior of crystals. Three explicit substructure components are assumed in the composite single crystal model, namely "loop patches" and "channels" which are aligned in parallel in a "vein matrix," and persistent slip bands (PSBs) connected in series with the vein matrix. A magnetic domain rotation model is presented to describe the reverse magnetostriction of single crystal nickel. Kinematic hardening parameters are obtained by fitting responses to experimental data in the uniaxial model, and the validity of uniaxial assumption is verified in the 3-D FEM model with explicit substructures. With information gathered from experiments, all control parameters in the model including hardening parameters, volume fraction of loop patches and PSBs, and variation of Young's modulus etc. are correlated to cumulative plastic strain and/or plastic strain amplitude; and the whole cyclic deformation history of single crystal nickel at low plastic strain amplitudes is simulated in the uniaxial model. Then these parameters are implanted in the 3-D FEM model to simulate the formation of PSB bands. A resolved shear stress criterion is set to trigger the formation of PSBs, and stress perturbation in the specimen is obtained by several elements assigned with PSB material properties a priori. Displacement increment, plastic strain amplitude control and overall stress-strain monitor and output are carried out in the user

  6. MJO prediction skill of the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Son, S. W.; Lim, Y.; Kim, D.

    2017-12-01

    The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the dominant mode of tropical intraseasonal variability, provides the primary source of tropical and extratropical predictability on subseasonal to seasonal timescales. To better understand its predictability, this study conducts quantitative evaluation of MJO prediction skill in the state-of-the-art operational models participating in the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction project. Based on bivariate correlation coefficient of 0.5, the S2S models exhibit MJO prediction skill ranging from 12 to 36 days. These prediction skills are affected by both the MJO amplitude and phase errors, the latter becoming more important with forecast lead times. Consistent with previous studies, the MJO events with stronger initial amplitude are typically better predicted. However, essentially no sensitivity to the initial MJO phase is observed. Overall MJO prediction skill and its inter-model spread are further related with the model mean biases in moisture fields and longwave cloud-radiation feedbacks. In most models, a dry bias quickly builds up in the deep tropics, especially across the Maritime Continent, weakening horizontal moisture gradient. This likely dampens the organization and propagation of MJO. Most S2S models also underestimate the longwave cloud-radiation feedbacks in the tropics, which may affect the maintenance of the MJO convective envelop. In general, the models with a smaller bias in horizontal moisture gradient and longwave cloud-radiation feedbacks show a higher MJO prediction skill, suggesting that improving those processes would enhance MJO prediction skill.

  7. Analysis of structures based on a characteristic-strain model of creep

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolton, J. [Alstom Power, Newbold Road, Rugby CV21 2NH (United Kingdom)], E-mail: janjohn.bolton@virgin.net

    2008-01-15

    A companion paper [Bolton J. In: A characteristic-strain model for creep, ECCC/I.Mech.E. conference on creep and fracture in high-temperature components, London, September 2005] describes a creep model based on a constant 'characteristic strain' at any temperature. The present paper discusses the application of such a model, first to simple structures and then to engineering components of general form under steady loading. A basis is proposed for identifying the stress within a structure, or within the critical part of a structure, which can be considered to govern both its overall and local deformations. The concept is similar to skeletal-point stress but is more readily applied to components of any shape. The implementation of the concept of 'structural stress' is discussed in the context of finite-element creep calculations. Consideration is given to the analysis of cracked structures, where very high strains at the crack tip must be accommodated.

  8. Analysis of structures based on a characteristic-strain model of creep

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bolton, J.

    2008-01-01

    A companion paper [Bolton J. In: A characteristic-strain model for creep, ECCC/I.Mech.E. conference on creep and fracture in high-temperature components, London, September 2005] describes a creep model based on a constant 'characteristic strain' at any temperature. The present paper discusses the application of such a model, first to simple structures and then to engineering components of general form under steady loading. A basis is proposed for identifying the stress within a structure, or within the critical part of a structure, which can be considered to govern both its overall and local deformations. The concept is similar to skeletal-point stress but is more readily applied to components of any shape. The implementation of the concept of 'structural stress' is discussed in the context of finite-element creep calculations. Consideration is given to the analysis of cracked structures, where very high strains at the crack tip must be accommodated

  9. Comparative Analysis and Modeling of the Severity of Steatohepatitis in DDC-Treated Mouse Strains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandey, Vikash; Sultan, Marc; Kashofer, Karl; Ralser, Meryem; Amstislavskiy, Vyacheslav; Starmann, Julia; Osprian, Ingrid; Grimm, Christina; Hache, Hendrik; Yaspo, Marie-Laure; Sültmann, Holger; Trauner, Michael; Denk, Helmut; Zatloukal, Kurt; Lehrach, Hans; Wierling, Christoph

    2014-01-01

    Background Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has a broad spectrum of disease states ranging from mild steatosis characterized by an abnormal retention of lipids within liver cells to steatohepatitis (NASH) showing fat accumulation, inflammation, ballooning and degradation of hepatocytes, and fibrosis. Ultimately, steatohepatitis can result in liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Methodology and Results In this study we have analyzed three different mouse strains, A/J, C57BL/6J, and PWD/PhJ, that show different degrees of steatohepatitis when administered a 3,5-diethoxycarbonyl-1,4-dihydrocollidine (DDC) containing diet. RNA-Seq gene expression analysis, protein analysis and metabolic profiling were applied to identify differentially expressed genes/proteins and perturbed metabolite levels of mouse liver samples upon DDC-treatment. Pathway analysis revealed alteration of arachidonic acid (AA) and S-adenosylmethionine (SAMe) metabolism upon other pathways. To understand metabolic changes of arachidonic acid metabolism in the light of disease expression profiles a kinetic model of this pathway was developed and optimized according to metabolite levels. Subsequently, the model was used to study in silico effects of potential drug targets for steatohepatitis. Conclusions We identified AA/eicosanoid metabolism as highly perturbed in DDC-induced mice using a combination of an experimental and in silico approach. Our analysis of the AA/eicosanoid metabolic pathway suggests that 5-hydroxyeicosatetraenoic acid (5-HETE), 15-hydroxyeicosatetraenoic acid (15-HETE) and prostaglandin D2 (PGD2) are perturbed in DDC mice. We further demonstrate that a dynamic model can be used for qualitative prediction of metabolic changes based on transcriptomics data in a disease-related context. Furthermore, SAMe metabolism was identified as being perturbed due to DDC treatment. Several genes as well as some metabolites of this module show differences between A/J and C57BL/6J

  10. Comparative analysis and modeling of the severity of steatohepatitis in DDC-treated mouse strains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandey, Vikash; Sultan, Marc; Kashofer, Karl; Ralser, Meryem; Amstislavskiy, Vyacheslav; Starmann, Julia; Osprian, Ingrid; Grimm, Christina; Hache, Hendrik; Yaspo, Marie-Laure; Sültmann, Holger; Trauner, Michael; Denk, Helmut; Zatloukal, Kurt; Lehrach, Hans; Wierling, Christoph

    2014-01-01

    Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has a broad spectrum of disease states ranging from mild steatosis characterized by an abnormal retention of lipids within liver cells to steatohepatitis (NASH) showing fat accumulation, inflammation, ballooning and degradation of hepatocytes, and fibrosis. Ultimately, steatohepatitis can result in liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. In this study we have analyzed three different mouse strains, A/J, C57BL/6J, and PWD/PhJ, that show different degrees of steatohepatitis when administered a 3,5-diethoxycarbonyl-1,4-dihydrocollidine (DDC) containing diet. RNA-Seq gene expression analysis, protein analysis and metabolic profiling were applied to identify differentially expressed genes/proteins and perturbed metabolite levels of mouse liver samples upon DDC-treatment. Pathway analysis revealed alteration of arachidonic acid (AA) and S-adenosylmethionine (SAMe) metabolism upon other pathways. To understand metabolic changes of arachidonic acid metabolism in the light of disease expression profiles a kinetic model of this pathway was developed and optimized according to metabolite levels. Subsequently, the model was used to study in silico effects of potential drug targets for steatohepatitis. We identified AA/eicosanoid metabolism as highly perturbed in DDC-induced mice using a combination of an experimental and in silico approach. Our analysis of the AA/eicosanoid metabolic pathway suggests that 5-hydroxyeicosatetraenoic acid (5-HETE), 15-hydroxyeicosatetraenoic acid (15-HETE) and prostaglandin D2 (PGD2) are perturbed in DDC mice. We further demonstrate that a dynamic model can be used for qualitative prediction of metabolic changes based on transcriptomics data in a disease-related context. Furthermore, SAMe metabolism was identified as being perturbed due to DDC treatment. Several genes as well as some metabolites of this module show differences between A/J and C57BL/6J on the one hand and PWD/PhJ on the other.

  11. Comparative analysis and modeling of the severity of steatohepatitis in DDC-treated mouse strains.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vikash Pandey

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD has a broad spectrum of disease states ranging from mild steatosis characterized by an abnormal retention of lipids within liver cells to steatohepatitis (NASH showing fat accumulation, inflammation, ballooning and degradation of hepatocytes, and fibrosis. Ultimately, steatohepatitis can result in liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. METHODOLOGY AND RESULTS: In this study we have analyzed three different mouse strains, A/J, C57BL/6J, and PWD/PhJ, that show different degrees of steatohepatitis when administered a 3,5-diethoxycarbonyl-1,4-dihydrocollidine (DDC containing diet. RNA-Seq gene expression analysis, protein analysis and metabolic profiling were applied to identify differentially expressed genes/proteins and perturbed metabolite levels of mouse liver samples upon DDC-treatment. Pathway analysis revealed alteration of arachidonic acid (AA and S-adenosylmethionine (SAMe metabolism upon other pathways. To understand metabolic changes of arachidonic acid metabolism in the light of disease expression profiles a kinetic model of this pathway was developed and optimized according to metabolite levels. Subsequently, the model was used to study in silico effects of potential drug targets for steatohepatitis. CONCLUSIONS: We identified AA/eicosanoid metabolism as highly perturbed in DDC-induced mice using a combination of an experimental and in silico approach. Our analysis of the AA/eicosanoid metabolic pathway suggests that 5-hydroxyeicosatetraenoic acid (5-HETE, 15-hydroxyeicosatetraenoic acid (15-HETE and prostaglandin D2 (PGD2 are perturbed in DDC mice. We further demonstrate that a dynamic model can be used for qualitative prediction of metabolic changes based on transcriptomics data in a disease-related context. Furthermore, SAMe metabolism was identified as being perturbed due to DDC treatment. Several genes as well as some metabolites of this module show differences between A

  12. Butterfly, Recurrence, and Predictability in Lorenz Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, B. W.

    2017-12-01

    Over the span of 50 years, the original three-dimensional Lorenz model (3DLM; Lorenz,1963) and its high-dimensional versions (e.g., Shen 2014a and references therein) have been used for improving our understanding of the predictability of weather and climate with a focus on chaotic responses. Although the Lorenz studies focus on nonlinear processes and chaotic dynamics, people often apply a "linear" conceptual model to understand the nonlinear processes in the 3DLM. In this talk, we present examples to illustrate the common misunderstandings regarding butterfly effect and discuss the importance of solutions' recurrence and boundedness in the 3DLM and high-dimensional LMs. The first example is discussed with the following folklore that has been widely used as an analogy of the butterfly effect: "For want of a nail, the shoe was lost.For want of a shoe, the horse was lost.For want of a horse, the rider was lost.For want of a rider, the battle was lost.For want of a battle, the kingdom was lost.And all for the want of a horseshoe nail."However, in 2008, Prof. Lorenz stated that he did not feel that this verse described true chaos but that it better illustrated the simpler phenomenon of instability; and that the verse implicitly suggests that subsequent small events will not reverse the outcome (Lorenz, 2008). Lorenz's comments suggest that the verse neither describes negative (nonlinear) feedback nor indicates recurrence, the latter of which is required for the appearance of a butterfly pattern. The second example is to illustrate that the divergence of two nearby trajectories should be bounded and recurrent, as shown in Figure 1. Furthermore, we will discuss how high-dimensional LMs were derived to illustrate (1) negative nonlinear feedback that stabilizes the system within the five- and seven-dimensional LMs (5D and 7D LMs; Shen 2014a; 2015a; 2016); (2) positive nonlinear feedback that destabilizes the system within the 6D and 8D LMs (Shen 2015b; 2017); and (3

  13. Auditing predictive models : a case study in crop growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Metselaar, K.

    1999-01-01

    Methods were developed to assess and quantify the predictive quality of simulation models, with the intent to contribute to evaluation of model studies by non-scientists. In a case study, two models of different complexity, LINTUL and SUCROS87, were used to predict yield of forage maize

  14. Models for predicting compressive strength and water absorption of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This work presents a mathematical model for predicting the compressive strength and water absorption of laterite-quarry dust cement block using augmented Scheffe's simplex lattice design. The statistical models developed can predict the mix proportion that will yield the desired property. The models were tested for lack of ...

  15. Proteochemometric model for predicting the inhibition of penicillin-binding proteins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nabu, Sunanta; Nantasenamat, Chanin; Owasirikul, Wiwat; Lawung, Ratana; Isarankura-Na-Ayudhya, Chartchalerm; Lapins, Maris; Wikberg, Jarl E. S.; Prachayasittikul, Virapong

    2015-02-01

    Neisseria gonorrhoeae infection threatens to become an untreatable sexually transmitted disease in the near future owing to the increasing emergence of N. gonorrhoeae strains with reduced susceptibility and resistance to the extended-spectrum cephalosporins (ESCs), i.e. ceftriaxone and cefixime, which are the last remaining option for first-line treatment of gonorrhea. Alteration of the penA gene, encoding penicillin-binding protein 2 (PBP2), is the main mechanism conferring penicillin resistance including reduced susceptibility and resistance to ESCs. To predict and investigate putative amino acid mutations causing β-lactam resistance particularly for ESCs, we applied proteochemometric modeling to generalize N. gonorrhoeae susceptibility data for predicting the interaction of PBP2 with therapeutic β-lactam antibiotics. This was afforded by correlating publicly available data on antimicrobial susceptibility of wild-type and mutant N. gonorrhoeae strains for penicillin-G, cefixime and ceftriaxone with 50 PBP2 protein sequence data using partial least-squares projections to latent structures. The generated model revealed excellent predictability ( R 2 = 0.91, Q 2 = 0.77, Q Ext 2 = 0.78). Moreover, our model identified amino acid mutations in PBP2 with the highest impact on antimicrobial susceptibility and provided information on physicochemical properties of amino acid mutations affecting antimicrobial susceptibility. Our model thus provided insight into the physicochemical basis for resistance development in PBP2 suggesting its use for predicting and monitoring novel PBP2 mutations that may emerge in the future.

  16. Exploring the mechanical behavior of degrading swine neural tissue at low strain rates via the fractional Zener constitutive model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentil, Sarah A; Dupaix, Rebecca B

    2014-02-01

    The ability of the fractional Zener constitutive model to predict the behavior of postmortem swine brain tissue was examined in this work. Understanding tissue behavior attributed to degradation is invaluable in many fields such as the forensic sciences or cases where only cadaveric tissue is available. To understand how material properties change with postmortem age, the fractional Zener model was considered as it includes parameters to describe brain stiffness and also the parameter α, which quantifies the viscoelasticity of a material. The relationship between the viscoelasticity described by α and tissue degradation was examined by fitting the model to data collected in a previous study (Bentil, 2013). This previous study subjected swine neural tissue to in vitro unconfined compression tests using four postmortem age groups (week). All samples were compressed to a strain level of 10% using two compressive rates: 1mm/min and 5mm/min. Statistical analysis was used as a tool to study the influence of the fractional Zener constants on factors such as tissue degradation and compressive rate. Application of the fractional Zener constitutive model to the experimental data showed that swine neural tissue becomes less stiff with increased postmortem age. The fractional Zener model was also able to capture the nonlinear viscoelastic features of the brain tissue at low strain rates. The results showed that the parameter α was better correlated with compressive rate than with postmortem age. © 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  17. A strain-, cow-, and herd-specific bio-economic simulation model of intramammary infections in dairy cattle herds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gussmann, Maya; Kirkeby, Carsten; Græsbøll, Kaare; Farre, Michael; Halasa, Tariq

    2018-07-14

    Intramammary infections (IMI) in dairy cattle lead to economic losses for farmers, both through reduced milk production and disease control measures. We present the first strain-, cow- and herd-specific bio-economic simulation model of intramammary infections in a dairy cattle herd. The model can be used to investigate the cost-effectiveness of different prevention and control strategies against IMI. The objective of this study was to describe a transmission framework, which simulates spread of IMI causing pathogens through different transmission modes. These include the traditional contagious and environmental spread and a new opportunistic transmission mode. In addition, the within-herd transmission dynamics of IMI causing pathogens were studied. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to investigate the influence of input parameters on model predictions. The results show that the model is able to represent various within-herd levels of IMI prevalence, depending on the simulated pathogens and their parameter settings. The parameters can be adjusted to include different combinations of IMI causing pathogens at different prevalence levels, representing herd-specific situations. The model is most sensitive to varying the transmission rate parameters and the strain-specific recovery rates from IMI. It can be used for investigating both short term operational and long term strategic decisions for the prevention and control of IMI in dairy cattle herds. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Devising Strain Hardening Models Using Kocks–Mecking Plots—A Comparison of Model Development for Titanium Aluminides and Case Hardening Steel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus Bambach

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The present study focuses on the development of strain hardening models taking into account the peculiarities of titanium aluminides. In comparison to steels, whose behavior has been studied extensively in the past, titanium aluminides possess a much larger initial work hardening rate, a sharp peak stress and pronounced softening. The work hardening behavior of a TNB-V4 (Ti–44.5Al–6.25Nb–0.8Mo–0.1B alloy is studied using isothermal hot compression tests conducted on a Gleeble 3500 simulator, and compared to the typical case hardening steel 25MoCrS4. The behavior is analyzed with the help of the Kocks-Mecking plots. In contrast to steel the TNB-V4 alloy shows a non-linear course of θ (i.e., no stage-III hardening initially and exhibits neither a plateau (stage IV hardening nor an inflection point at all deformation conditions. The present paper describes the development and application of a methodology for the design of strain hardening models for the TNB-V4 alloy and the 25CrMoS4 steel by taking the course of the Kocks-Mecking plots into account. Both models use different approaches for the hardening and softening mechanisms and accurately predict the flow stress over a wide range of deformation conditions. The methodology may hence assist in further developments of more sophisticated physically-based strain hardening models for TiAl-alloys.

  19. Statistical and Machine Learning Models to Predict Programming Performance

    OpenAIRE

    Bergin, Susan

    2006-01-01

    This thesis details a longitudinal study on factors that influence introductory programming success and on the development of machine learning models to predict incoming student performance. Although numerous studies have developed models to predict programming success, the models struggled to achieve high accuracy in predicting the likely performance of incoming students. Our approach overcomes this by providing a machine learning technique, using a set of three significant...

  20. PREDICTION OF MAXIMUM CREEP STRAIN OF HIGH PERFORMANCE STEEL FIBER REINFORCED CONCRETE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mishina Alexandra Vasil'evna

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The strongest research potential is demonstrated by the areas of application of high performance steel fiber reinforced concrete (HPSFRC. The research of its rheological characteristics is very important for the purposes of understanding its behaviour. This article is an overview of an experimental study of UHSSFRC. The study was carried out in the form of lasting creep tests of HPSFRC prism specimen, loaded by stresses of varied intensity. The loading was performed at different ages: 7, 14, 28 and 90 days after concreting. The stress intensity was 0.3 and 0.6 Rb; it was identified on the basis of short-term crush tests of similar prism-shaped specimen, performed on the same day. As a result, values of ultimate creep strains and ultimate specific creep of HPSFRC were identified. The data was used to construct an experimental diagramme of the ultimate specific creep on the basis of the HPSFRC loading age if exposed to various stresses. The research has resulted in the identification of a theoretical relationship that may serve as the basis for the high-precision projection of the pattern of changes in the ultimate specific creep of HPSFRC, depending on the age of loading and the stress intensity.

  1. Stress strain modelling and analysis of a piezo-coated optical fibre sensor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Raweshidy, H.; Ali, H.; Obayya, S. S. A.; Langley, R.; Batchelor, J.

    2005-02-01

    A finite element model, using commercially available software, is presented to simulate the piezoelectrically induced stresses and strains in an optical fibre to be used as antenna. These stresses and strains are generated by a layer of piezoelectric polymer deposited on the cladding of a short fibre sample. The theoretical basis for the work is briefly explained and the modelling process is emphasised. Two types of fibre are investigated - circular fibre and D-fibre, and the results compared, analysed and discussed. It is shown that in the D-fibre, the stress and displacement increased by 1.46 and 115 times, respectively, in comparison with the circular fibre.

  2. Heat transfer modeling in asymmetrical sheet rolling of aluminium alloys with ultra high shear strain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pesin Alexander

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Asymmetrical sheet rolling is a method of severe plastic deformation (SPD for production of aluminium alloys with UFG structure. Prediction of sheet temperature during SPD is important. The temperature of sheet is changed due to the conversion of mechanical work into heat through sliding on contact surfaces and high shear strain. Paper presents the results of FEM simulation of the effect of contact friction, rolling speed and rolls speed ratio on the heating of aluminium sheets during asymmetrical rolling.

  3. An improved model to predict nonuniform deformation of Zr-2.5 Nb pressure tubes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lei, Q.M.; Fan, H.Z.

    1997-01-01

    Present circular pressure-tube ballooning models in most fuel channel codes assume that the pressure tube remains circular during ballooning. This model provides adequate predictions of pressure-tube ballooning behaviour when the pressure tube (PT) and the calandria tube (CT) are concentric and when a small (<100 degrees C) top-to-bottom circumferential temperature gradient is present on the pressure tube. However, nonconcentric ballooning is expected to occur under certain postulated CANDU (CANada Deuterium Uranium) accident conditions. This circular geometry assumption prevents the model from accurately predicting nonuniform pressure-tube straining and local PT/CT contact when the pressure tube is subjected to a large circumferential temperature gradient and consequently deforms in a noncircular pattern. This paper describes an improved model that predicts noncircular pressure-tube deformation. Use of this model (once fully validated) will reduce uncertainties in the prediction of pressure-tube ballooning during a postulated loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) in a CANDU reactor. The noncircular deformation model considers a ring or cross-section of a pressure tube with unit axial length to calculate deformation in the radial and circumferential directions. The model keeps track of the thinning of the pressure-tube wall as well as the shape deviation from a reference circle. Such deviation is expressed in a cosine Fourier series for the lateral symmetry case. The coefficients of the series for the first m terms are calculated by solving a set of algebraic equations at each time step. The model also takes into account the effects of pressure-tube sag or bow on ballooning, using an input value of the offset distance between the centre of the calandria tube and the initial centre of the pressure tube for determining the position radius of the pressure tube. One significant improvement realized in using the noncircular deformation model is a more accurate prediction in

  4. Probabilistic Modeling and Visualization for Bankruptcy Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antunes, Francisco; Ribeiro, Bernardete; Pereira, Francisco Camara

    2017-01-01

    In accounting and finance domains, bankruptcy prediction is of great utility for all of the economic stakeholders. The challenge of accurate assessment of business failure prediction, specially under scenarios of financial crisis, is known to be complicated. Although there have been many successful...... studies on bankruptcy detection, seldom probabilistic approaches were carried out. In this paper we assume a probabilistic point-of-view by applying Gaussian Processes (GP) in the context of bankruptcy prediction, comparing it against the Support Vector Machines (SVM) and the Logistic Regression (LR......). Using real-world bankruptcy data, an in-depth analysis is conducted showing that, in addition to a probabilistic interpretation, the GP can effectively improve the bankruptcy prediction performance with high accuracy when compared to the other approaches. We additionally generate a complete graphical...

  5. Accurate and dynamic predictive model for better prediction in medicine and healthcare.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alanazi, H O; Abdullah, A H; Qureshi, K N; Ismail, A S

    2018-05-01

    Information and communication technologies (ICTs) have changed the trend into new integrated operations and methods in all fields of life. The health sector has also adopted new technologies to improve the systems and provide better services to customers. Predictive models in health care are also influenced from new technologies to predict the different disease outcomes. However, still, existing predictive models have suffered from some limitations in terms of predictive outcomes performance. In order to improve predictive model performance, this paper proposed a predictive model by classifying the disease predictions into different categories. To achieve this model performance, this paper uses traumatic brain injury (TBI) datasets. TBI is one of the serious diseases worldwide and needs more attention due to its seriousness and serious impacts on human life. The proposed predictive model improves the predictive performance of TBI. The TBI data set is developed and approved by neurologists to set its features. The experiment results show that the proposed model has achieved significant results including accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity.

  6. Unified Drain Current Model of Armchair Graphene Nanoribbons with Uniaxial Strain and Quantum Effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EngSiew Kang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A unified current-voltage I-V model of uniaxial strained armchair graphene nanoribbons (AGNRs incorporating quantum confinement effects is presented in this paper. The I-V model is enhanced by integrating both linear and saturation regions into a unified and precise model of AGNRs. The derivation originates from energy dispersion throughout the entire Brillouin zone of uniaxial strained AGNRs based on the tight-binding approximation. Our results reveal the modification of the energy band gap, carrier density, and drain current upon strain. The effects of quantum confinement were investigated in terms of the quantum capacitance calculated from the broadening density of states. The results show that quantum effect is greatly dependent on the magnitude of applied strain, gate voltage, channel length, and oxide thickness. The discrepancies between the classical calculation and quantum calculation were also measured and it has been found to be as high as 19% drive current loss due to the quantum confinement. Our finding which is in good agreement with the published data provides significant insight into the device performance of uniaxial strained AGNRs in nanoelectronic applications.

  7. Investigating the conformational stability of prion strains through a kinetic replication model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mattia Zampieri

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Prion proteins are known to misfold into a range of different aggregated forms, showing different phenotypic and pathological states. Understanding strain specificities is an important problem in the field of prion disease. Little is known about which PrP(Sc structural properties and molecular mechanisms determine prion replication, disease progression and strain phenotype. The aim of this work is to investigate, through a mathematical model, how the structural stability of different aggregated forms can influence the kinetics of prion replication. The model-based results suggest that prion strains with different conformational stability undergoing in vivo replication are characterizable in primis by means of different rates of breakage. A further role seems to be played by the aggregation rate (i.e. the rate at which a prion fibril grows. The kinetic variability introduced in the model by these two parameters allows us to reproduce the different characteristic features of the various strains (e.g., fibrils' mean length and is coherent with all experimental observations concerning strain-specific behavior.

  8. Two-dimensional strain gradient damage modeling: a variational approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Placidi, Luca; Misra, Anil; Barchiesi, Emilio

    2018-06-01

    In this paper, we formulate a linear elastic second gradient isotropic two-dimensional continuum model accounting for irreversible damage. The failure is defined as the condition in which the damage parameter reaches 1, at least in one point of the domain. The quasi-static approximation is done, i.e., the kinetic energy is assumed to be negligible. In order to deal with dissipation, a damage dissipation term is considered in the deformation energy functional. The key goal of this paper is to apply a non-standard variational procedure to exploit the damage irreversibility argument. As a result, we derive not only the equilibrium equations but, notably, also the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions. Finally, numerical simulations for exemplary problems are discussed as some constitutive parameters are varying, with the inclusion of a mesh-independence evidence. Element-free Galerkin method and moving least square shape functions have been employed.

  9. Prediction of the Stress-Strain Behavior of Open-Cell Aluminum Foam under Compressive Loading and the Effects of Various RVE Boundary Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamidi Ghaleh Jigh, Behrang; Farsi, Mohammad Ali; Hosseini Toudeshky, Hossein

    2018-05-01

    The prediction of the mechanical behavior of metallic foams with realistic microstructure and the effects of various boundary conditions on the mechanical behavior is an important and challenging issue in modeling representative volume elements (RVEs). A numerical investigation is conducted to determine the effects of various boundary conditions and cell wall cross sections on the compressive mechanical properties of aluminum foam, including the stiffness, plateau stress and onset strain of densification. The open-cell AA6101-T6 aluminum foam Duocel is used in the analyses in this study. Geometrical characteristics including the cell size, foam relative density, and cross-sectional shape and thickness of the cell walls are extracted from images of the foam. Then, the obtained foam microstructure is analyzed as a 2D model. The ligaments are modeled as shear deformable beams with elastic-plastic material behavior. To prevent interpenetration of the nodes and walls inside the cells with large deformations, self-contact-type frictionless interaction is stipulated between the internal surfaces. Sensitivity analyses are performed using several boundary conditions and cells wall cross-sectional shapes. The predicted results from the finite element analyses are compared with the experimental results. Finally, the most appropriate boundary conditions, leading to more consistent results with the experimental data, are introduced.

  10. Prediction of the Stress-Strain Behavior of Open-Cell Aluminum Foam under Compressive Loading and the Effects of Various RVE Boundary Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamidi Ghaleh Jigh, Behrang; Farsi, Mohammad Ali; Hosseini Toudeshky, Hossein

    2018-04-01

    The prediction of the mechanical behavior of metallic foams with realistic microstructure and the effects of various boundary conditions on the mechanical behavior is an important and challenging issue in modeling representative volume elements (RVEs). A numerical investigation is conducted to determine the effects of various boundary conditions and cell wall cross sections on the compressive mechanical properties of aluminum foam, including the stiffness, plateau stress and onset strain of densification. The open-cell AA6101-T6 aluminum foam Duocel is used in the analyses in this study. Geometrical characteristics including the cell size, foam relative density, and cross-sectional shape and thickness of the cell walls are extracted from images of the foam. Then, the obtained foam microstructure is analyzed as a 2D model. The ligaments are modeled as shear deformable beams with elastic-plastic material behavior. To prevent interpenetration of the nodes and walls inside the cells with large deformations, self-contact-type frictionless interaction is stipulated between the internal surfaces. Sensitivity analyses are performed using several boundary conditions and cells wall cross-sectional shapes. The predicted results from the finite element analyses are compared with the experimental results. Finally, the most appropriate boundary conditions, leading to more consistent results with the experimental data, are introduced.

  11. A new ensemble model for short term wind power prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Albu, Razvan-Daniel; Felea, Ioan

    2012-01-01

    As the objective of this study, a non-linear ensemble system is used to develop a new model for predicting wind speed in short-term time scale. Short-term wind power prediction becomes an extremely important field of research for the energy sector. Regardless of the recent advancements in the re-search...... of prediction models, it was observed that different models have different capabilities and also no single model is suitable under all situations. The idea behind EPS (ensemble prediction systems) is to take advantage of the unique features of each subsystem to detain diverse patterns that exist in the dataset...

  12. Testing the predictive power of nuclear mass models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendoza-Temis, J.; Morales, I.; Barea, J.; Frank, A.; Hirsch, J.G.; Vieyra, J.C. Lopez; Van Isacker, P.; Velazquez, V.

    2008-01-01

    A number of tests are introduced which probe the ability of nuclear mass models to extrapolate. Three models are analyzed in detail: the liquid drop model, the liquid drop model plus empirical shell corrections and the Duflo-Zuker mass formula. If predicted nuclei are close to the fitted ones, average errors in predicted and fitted masses are similar. However, the challenge of predicting nuclear masses in a region stabilized by shell effects (e.g., the lead region) is far more difficult. The Duflo-Zuker mass formula emerges as a powerful predictive tool

  13. From Predictive Models to Instructional Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rollinson, Joseph; Brunskill, Emma

    2015-01-01

    At their core, Intelligent Tutoring Systems consist of a student model and a policy. The student model captures the state of the student and the policy uses the student model to individualize instruction. Policies require different properties from the student model. For example, a mastery threshold policy requires the student model to have a way…

  14. Immune Modulating Capability of Two Exopolysaccharide-Producing Bifidobacterium Strains in a Wistar Rat Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nuria Salazar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Fermented dairy products are the usual carriers for the delivery of probiotics to humans, Bifidobacterium and Lactobacillus being the most frequently used bacteria. In this work, the strains Bifidobacterium animalis subsp. lactis IPLA R1 and Bifidobacterium longum IPLA E44 were tested for their capability to modulate immune response and the insulin-dependent glucose homeostasis using male Wistar rats fed with a standard diet. Three intervention groups were fed daily for 24 days with 10% skimmed milk, or with 109 cfu of the corresponding strain suspended in the same vehicle. A significant increase of the suppressor-regulatory TGF-β cytokine occurred with both strains in comparison with a control (no intervention group of rats; the highest levels were reached in rats fed IPLA R1. This strain presented an immune protective profile, as it was able to reduce the production of the proinflammatory IL-6. Moreover, phosphorylated Akt kinase decreased in gastroctemius muscle of rats fed the strain IPLA R1, without affecting the glucose, insulin, and HOMA index in blood, or levels of Glut-4 located in the membrane of muscle and adipose tissue cells. Therefore, the strain B. animalis subsp. lactis IPLA R1 is a probiotic candidate to be tested in mild grade inflammation animal models.

  15. Multiphase-field model of small strain elasto-plasticity according to the mechanical jump conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrmann, Christoph; Schoof, Ephraim; Schneider, Daniel; Schwab, Felix; Reiter, Andreas; Selzer, Michael; Nestler, Britta

    2018-04-01

    We introduce a small strain elasto-plastic multiphase-field model according to the mechanical jump conditions. A rate-independent J_2 -plasticity model with linear isotropic hardening and without kinematic hardening is applied exemplary. Generally, any physically nonlinear mechanical model is compatible with the subsequently presented procedure. In contrast to models with interpolated material parameters, the proposed model is able to apply different nonlinear mechanical constitutive equations for each phase separately. The Hadamard compatibility condition and the static force balance are employed as homogenization approaches to calculate the phase-inherent stresses and strains. Several verification cases are discussed. The applicability of the proposed model is demonstrated by simulations of the martensitic transformation and quantitative parameters.

  16. Predicting adhesion and biofilm formation boundaries on stainless steel surfaces by five Salmonella enterica strains belonging to different serovars as a function of pH, temperature and NaCl concentration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moraes, Juliana O; Cruz, Ellen A; Souza, Enio G F; Oliveira, Tereza C M; Alvarenga, Verônica O; Peña, Wilmer E L; Sant'Ana, Anderson S; Magnani, Marciane

    2018-05-26

    This study aimed to assess the capability of 97 epidemic S. enterica strains belonging to 18 serovars to form biofilm. Five strains characterized as strong biofilm-producers, belonging to distinct serovars (S. Enteritidis 132, S. Infantis 176, S. Typhimurium 177, S. Heidelberg 281 and S. Corvallis 297) were assayed for adhesion/biofilm formation on stainless steel surfaces. The experiments were conducted in different combinations of NaCl (0, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8 and 10% w/v), pH (4, 5, 6 and 7) and temperatures (8 °C, 12 °C, 20 °C and 35 °C). Only adhesion was assumed to occur when S. enterica counts were ≥3 and biofilm formation was defined as when the counts were ≥5 log CFU/cm 2 . The binary responses were used to develop models to predict the probability of adhesion/biofilm formation on stainless steel surfaces by five strains belonging to different S. enterica serovars. A total of 99% (96/97) of the tested S. enterica strains were characterized as biofilm-producers in the microtiter plate assays. The ability to form biofilm varied (P biofilm-producers, 21% (20/96), 45% (43/96), and 35% (34/96) were weak, moderate and strong biofilm-producers, respectively. The capability for adhesion/biofilm formation on stainless steel surfaces under the experimental conditions studied varied among the strains studied, and distinct secondary models were obtained to describe the behavior of the five S. enterica tested. All strains showed adhesion at pH 4 up to 4% of NaCl and at 20 °C and 35 °C. The probability of adhesion decreased when NaCl concentrations were >8% and at 8 °C, as well as in pH values ≤ 5 and NaCl concentrations > 6%, for all tested strains. At pH 7 and 6, biofilm formation for S. Enteritidis, S. Infantis, S. Typhimurium, S. Heidelberg was observed up to 6% of NaCl at 35 °C and 20 °C. The predicted boundaries for adhesion were pH values biofilm formation, the predicted boundaries were pH values biofilm formation

  17. The Complexity of Developmental Predictions from Dual Process Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanovich, Keith E.; West, Richard F.; Toplak, Maggie E.

    2011-01-01

    Drawing developmental predictions from dual-process theories is more complex than is commonly realized. Overly simplified predictions drawn from such models may lead to premature rejection of the dual process approach as one of many tools for understanding cognitive development. Misleading predictions can be avoided by paying attention to several…

  18. Anisotropic Constitutive Model of Strain-induced Phenomena in Stainless Steels at Cryogenic Temperatures

    CERN Document Server

    Garion, C

    2004-01-01

    A majority of the thin-walled components subjected to intensive plastic straining at cryogenic temperatures are made of stainless steels. The examples of such components can be found in the interconnections of particle accelerators, containing the superconducting magnets, where the thermal contraction is absorbed by thin-walled, axisymetric shells called bellows expansion joints. The stainless steels show three main phenomena induced by plastic strains at cryogenic temperatures: serrated (discontinuous) yielding, gamma->alpha' phase transformation and anisotropic ductile damage. In the present paper, a coupled constitutive model of gamma->alpha' phase transformation and orthotropic ductile damage is presented. A kinetic law of phase transformation, and a kinetic law of evolution of orthotropic damage are presented. The model is extended to anisotropic plasticity comprising a constant anisotropy (texture effect), which can be classically taken into account by the Hill yield surface, and plastic strain induced ...

  19. The role of economic strain on adolescent delinquency: a microsocial process model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Low, Sabina; Sinclair, Ryan; Shortt, Joann Wu

    2012-08-01

    The current study examines the role of economic strain as a moderator of the microsocial processes influencing younger siblings' delinquency (externalizing behavior and substance use) in a longitudinal design. The younger siblings (122 younger brothers and 122 younger sisters) were from 244 families with same-sex biological siblings. Structural equation modeling was utilized to examine a process model whereby mothers' harsh/inconsistent parenting and older sibling delinquency influence younger siblings' delinquent behavior via sibling aggression and delinquent peer affiliation. Findings suggest that indirect mechanisms vary as a function of economic strain, with sibling aggression having a stronger, more detrimental effect on adolescent delinquency in economically strained families. Data suggest that familial economic conditions contextualize the relative roles of parenting, sibling, and peer processes in the transmission of risk to adolescent delinquency. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

  20. Recovery Kinetics in Commercial Purity Aluminum Deformed to Ultrahigh Strain: Model and Experiment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yu, Tianbo; Hansen, Niels

    2016-01-01

    A new approach to analyze recovery kinetics is developed from a recent model, and microstructural observations are introduced to supplement hardness measurements. The approach involves two steps of data fitting, and the second step of fitting enables an estimation of the apparent activation energy...... for recovery. This approach is applied to commercial purity aluminum (AA1050) cold rolled to ultrahigh strain (99.6 pct reduction in thickness) and annealed at temperatures from 413 K to 493 K (140 A degrees C to 220 A degrees C). The annealing data fit the recovery model well, and the analysis shows...... that the apparent activation energy increases during recovery and approaches 190 kJ/mol at the end of recovery, suggesting that solute drag is an important rate-controlling mechanism. The recovery rate for the highly strained Al is found to be higher than that for Al deformed to a lower strain, an effect which...

  1. An affine microsphere approach to modeling strain-induced crystallization in rubbery polymers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nateghi, A.; Dal, H.; Keip, M.-A.; Miehe, C.

    2018-01-01

    Upon stretching a natural rubber sample, polymer chains orient themselves in the direction of the applied load and form crystalline regions. When the sample is retracted, the original amorphous state of the network is restored. Due to crystallization, properties of rubber change considerably. The reinforcing effect of the crystallites stiffens the rubber and increases the crack growth resistance. It is of great importance to understand the mechanism leading to strain-induced crystallization. However, limited theoretical work has been done on the investigation of the associated kinetics. A key characteristic observed in the stress-strain diagram of crystallizing rubber is the hysteresis, which is entirely attributed to strain-induced crystallization. In this work, we propose a micromechanically motivated material model for strain-induced crystallization in rubbers. Our point of departure is constructing a micromechanical model for a single crystallizing polymer chain. Subsequently, a thermodynamically consistent evolution law describing the kinetics of crystallization on the chain level is proposed. This chain model is then incorporated into the affine microsphere model. Finally, the model is numerically implemented and its performance is compared to experimental data.

  2. Comparisons of Faulting-Based Pavement Performance Prediction Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weina Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Faulting prediction is the core of concrete pavement maintenance and design. Highway agencies are always faced with the problem of lower accuracy for the prediction which causes costly maintenance. Although many researchers have developed some performance prediction models, the accuracy of prediction has remained a challenge. This paper reviews performance prediction models and JPCP faulting models that have been used in past research. Then three models including multivariate nonlinear regression (MNLR model, artificial neural network (ANN model, and Markov Chain (MC model are tested and compared using a set of actual pavement survey data taken on interstate highway with varying design features, traffic, and climate data. It is found that MNLR model needs further recalibration, while the ANN model needs more data for training the network. MC model seems a good tool for pavement performance prediction when the data is limited, but it is based on visual inspections and not explicitly related to quantitative physical parameters. This paper then suggests that the further direction for developing the performance prediction model is incorporating the advantages and disadvantages of different models to obtain better accuracy.

  3. Strain localisation in mechanically layered rocks beneath detachment zones: insights from numerical modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Le Pourhiet

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available We have designed a series of fully dynamic numerical simulations aimed at assessing how the orientation of mechanical layering in rocks controls the orientation of shear bands and the depth of penetration of strain in the footwall of detachment zones. Two parametric studies are presented. In the first one, the influence of stratification orientation on the occurrence and mode of strain localisation is tested by varying initial dip of inherited layering in the footwall with regard to the orientation of simple shear applied at the rigid boundary simulating a rigid hanging wall, all scaling and rheological parameter kept constant. It appears that when Mohr–Coulomb plasticity is being used, shear bands are found to localise only when the layering is being stretched. This corresponds to early deformational stages for inital layering dipping in the same direction as the shear is applied, and to later stages for intial layering dipping towards the opposite direction of shear. In all the cases, localisation of the strain after only γ=1 requires plastic yielding to be activated in the strong layer. The second parametric study shows that results are length-scale independent and that orientation of shear bands is not sensitive to the viscosity contrast or the strain rate. However, decreasing or increasing strain rate is shown to reduce the capacity of the shear zone to localise strain. In the later case, the strain pattern resembles a mylonitic band but the rheology is shown to be effectively linear. Based on the results, a conceptual model for strain localisation under detachment faults is presented. In the early stages, strain localisation occurs at slow rates by viscous shear instabilities but as the layered media is exhumed, the temperature drops and the strong layers start yielding plastically, forming shear bands and localising strain at the top of the shear zone. Once strain localisation has occured, the deformation in the shear band becomes

  4. Image processing of full-field strain data and its use in model updating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, W; Mottershead, J E; Sebastian, C M; Patterson, E A

    2011-01-01

    Finite element model updating is an inverse problem based on measured structural outputs, typically natural frequencies. Full-field responses such as static stress/strain patterns and vibration mode shapes contain valuable information for model updating but within large volumes of highly-redundant data. Pattern recognition and image processing provide feasible techniques to extract effective and efficient information, often known as shape features, from this data. For instance, the Zernike polynomials having the properties of orthogonality and rotational invariance are powerful decomposition kernels for a shape defined within a unit circle. In this paper, full field strain patterns for a specimen, in the form of a square plate with a circular hole, under a tensile load are considered. Effective shape features can be constructed by a set of modified Zernike polynomials. The modification includes the application of a weighting function to the Zernike polynomials so that high strain magnitudes around the hole are well represented. The Gram-Schmidt process is then used to ensure orthogonality for the obtained decomposition kernels over the domain of the specimen. The difference between full-field strain patterns measured by digital image correlation (DIC) and reconstructed using 15 shape features (Zernike moment descriptors, ZMDs) at different steps in the elasto-plastic deformation of the specimen is found to be very small. It is significant that only a very small number of shape features are necessary and sufficient to represent the full-field data. Model updating of nonlinear elasto-plastic material properties is carried out by adjusting the parameters of a FE model until the FE strain pattern converges upon the measured strains as determined using ZMDs.

  5. Identification of strain-rate and thermal sensitive material model with an inverse method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peroni M.

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a numerical inverse method to extract material strength parameters from the experimental data obtained via mechanical tests at different strainrates and temperatures. It will be shown that this procedure is particularly useful to analyse experimental results when the stress-strain fields in the specimen cannot be correctly described via analytical models. This commonly happens in specimens with no regular shape, in specimens with a regular shape when some instability phenomena occur (for example the necking phenomena in tensile tests that create a strongly heterogeneous stress-strain fields or in dynamic tests (where the strain-rate field is not constant due to wave propagation phenomena. Furthermore the developed procedure is useful to take into account thermal phenomena generally affecting high strain-rate tests due to the adiabatic overheating related to the conversion of plastic work. The method presented requires strong effort both from experimental and numerical point of view, anyway it allows to precisely identify the parameters of different material models. This could provide great advantages when high reliability of the material behaviour is necessary. Applicability of this method is particularly indicated for special applications in the field of aerospace engineering, ballistic, crashworthiness studies or particle accelerator technologies, where materials could be submitted to strong plastic deformations at high-strain rate in a wide range of temperature. Thermal softening effect has been investigated in a temperature range between 20°C and 1000°C.

  6. Finite-Element Modeling of Viscoelastic Cells During High-Frequency Cyclic Strain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David W. Holdsworth

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Mechanotransduction refers to the mechanisms by which cells sense and respond to local loads and forces. The process of mechanotransduction plays an important role both in maintaining tissue viability and in remodeling to repair damage; moreover, it may be involved in the initiation and progression of diseases such as osteoarthritis and osteoporosis. An understanding of the mechanisms by which cells respond to surrounding tissue matrices or artificial biomaterials is crucial in regenerative medicine and in influencing cellular differentiation. Recent studies have shown that some cells may be most sensitive to low-amplitude, high-frequency (i.e., 1–100 Hz mechanical stimulation. Advances in finite-element modeling have made it possible to simulate high-frequency mechanical loading of cells. We have developed a viscoelastic finite-element model of an osteoblastic cell (including cytoskeletal actin stress fibers, attached to an elastomeric membrane undergoing cyclic isotropic radial strain with a peak value of 1,000 µstrain. The results indicate that cells experience significant stress and strain amplification when undergoing high-frequency strain, with peak values of cytoplasmic strain five times higher at 45 Hz than at 1 Hz, and peak Von Mises stress in the nucleus increased by a factor of two. Focal stress and strain amplification in cells undergoing high-frequency mechanical stimulation may play an important role in mechanotransduction.

  7. Modeling of Complex Life Cycle Prediction Based on Cell Division

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fucheng Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Effective fault diagnosis and reasonable life expectancy are of great significance and practical engineering value for the safety, reliability, and maintenance cost of equipment and working environment. At present, the life prediction methods of the equipment are equipment life prediction based on condition monitoring, combined forecasting model, and driven data. Most of them need to be based on a large amount of data to achieve the problem. For this issue, we propose learning from the mechanism of cell division in the organism. We have established a moderate complexity of life prediction model across studying the complex multifactor correlation life model. In this paper, we model the life prediction of cell division. Experiments show that our model can effectively simulate the state of cell division. Through the model of reference, we will use it for the equipment of the complex life prediction.

  8. Risk prediction model: Statistical and artificial neural network approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiman, Nuur Azreen; Hariri, Azian; Masood, Ibrahim

    2017-04-01

    Prediction models are increasingly gaining popularity and had been used in numerous areas of studies to complement and fulfilled clinical reasoning and decision making nowadays. The adoption of such models assist physician's decision making, individual's behavior, and consequently improve individual outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of care. The objective of this paper is to reviewed articles related to risk prediction model in order to understand the suitable approach, development and the validation process of risk prediction model. A qualitative review of the aims, methods and significant main outcomes of the nineteen published articles that developed risk prediction models from numerous fields were done. This paper also reviewed on how researchers develop and validate the risk prediction models based on statistical and artificial neural network approach. From the review done, some methodological recommendation in developing and validating the prediction model were highlighted. According to studies that had been done, artificial neural network approached in developing the prediction model were more accurate compared to statistical approach. However currently, only limited published literature discussed on which approach is more accurate for risk prediction model development.

  9. Predictive modeling and reducing cyclic variability in autoignition engines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellstrom, Erik; Stefanopoulou, Anna; Jiang, Li; Larimore, Jacob

    2016-08-30

    Methods and systems are provided for controlling a vehicle engine to reduce cycle-to-cycle combustion variation. A predictive model is applied to predict cycle-to-cycle combustion behavior of an engine based on observed engine performance variables. Conditions are identified, based on the predicted cycle-to-cycle combustion behavior, that indicate high cycle-to-cycle combustion variation. Corrective measures are then applied to prevent the predicted high cycle-to-cycle combustion variation.

  10. Creep-fatigue life prediction for different heats of Type 304 stainless steel by linear-damage rule, strain-range partitioning method, and damage-rate approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maiya, P.S.

    1978-07-01

    The creep-fatigue life results for five different heats of Type 304 stainless steel at 593 0 C (1100 0 F), generated under push-pull conditions in the axial strain-control mode, are presented. The life predictions for the various heats based on the linear-damage rule, strain-range partitioning method, and damage-rate approach are discussed. The appropriate material properties required for computation of fatigue life are also included

  11. Approach to first principles model prediction of measured WIPP [Waste Isolation Pilot Plant] in situ room closure in salt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munson, D.E.; Fossum, A.F.; Senseny, P.E.

    1989-01-01

    The discrepancies between predicted and measured WIPP in situ Room D closures are markedly reduced through the use of a Tresca flow potential, an improved small strain constitutive model, an improved set of material parameters, and a modified stratigraphy. 17 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab

  12. Dynamic Simulation of Human Gait Model With Predictive Capability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Jinming; Wu, Shaoli; Voglewede, Philip A

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, it is proposed that the central nervous system (CNS) controls human gait using a predictive control approach in conjunction with classical feedback control instead of exclusive classical feedback control theory that controls based on past error. To validate this proposition, a dynamic model of human gait is developed using a novel predictive approach to investigate the principles of the CNS. The model developed includes two parts: a plant model that represents the dynamics of human gait and a controller that represents the CNS. The plant model is a seven-segment, six-joint model that has nine degrees-of-freedom (DOF). The plant model is validated using data collected from able-bodied human subjects. The proposed controller utilizes model predictive control (MPC). MPC uses an internal model to predict the output in advance, compare the predicted output to the reference, and optimize the control input so that the predicted error is minimal. To decrease the complexity of the model, two joints are controlled using a proportional-derivative (PD) controller. The developed predictive human gait model is validated by simulating able-bodied human gait. The simulation results show that the developed model is able to simulate the kinematic output close to experimental data.

  13. Comparative Evaluation of Some Crop Yield Prediction Models ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A computer program was adopted from the work of Hill et al. (1982) to calibrate and test three of the existing yield prediction models using tropical cowpea yieldÐweather data. The models tested were Hanks Model (first and second versions). Stewart Model (first and second versions) and HallÐButcher Model. Three sets of ...

  14. A model to predict the power output from wind farms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landberg, L. [Riso National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)

    1997-12-31

    This paper will describe a model that can predict the power output from wind farms. To give examples of input the model is applied to a wind farm in Texas. The predictions are generated from forecasts from the NGM model of NCEP. These predictions are made valid at individual sites (wind farms) by applying a matrix calculated by the sub-models of WASP (Wind Atlas Application and Analysis Program). The actual wind farm production is calculated using the Riso PARK model. Because of the preliminary nature of the results, they will not be given. However, similar results from Europe will be given.

  15. Modelling microbial interactions and food structure in predictive microbiology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Malakar, P.K.

    2002-01-01

    Keywords: modelling, dynamic models, microbial interactions, diffusion, microgradients, colony growth, predictive microbiology.

    Growth response of microorganisms in foods is a complex process. Innovations in food production and preservation techniques have resulted in adoption of

  16. Ocean wave prediction using numerical and neural network models

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.

    This paper presents an overview of the development of the numerical wave prediction models and recently used neural networks for ocean wave hindcasting and forecasting. The numerical wave models express the physical concepts of the phenomena...

  17. A mathematical model for predicting earthquake occurrence ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We consider the continental crust under damage. We use the observed results of microseism in many seismic stations of the world which was established to study the time series of the activities of the continental crust with a view to predicting possible time of occurrence of earthquake. We consider microseism time series ...

  18. Model for predicting the injury severity score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagiwara, Shuichi; Oshima, Kiyohiro; Murata, Masato; Kaneko, Minoru; Aoki, Makoto; Kanbe, Masahiko; Nakamura, Takuro; Ohyama, Yoshio; Tamura, Jun'ichi

    2015-07-01

    To determine the formula that predicts the injury severity score from parameters that are obtained in the emergency department at arrival. We reviewed the medical records of trauma patients who were transferred to the emergency department of Gunma University Hospital between January 2010 and December 2010. The injury severity score, age, mean blood pressure, heart rate, Glasgow coma scale, hemoglobin, hematocrit, red blood cell count, platelet count, fibrinogen, international normalized ratio of prothrombin time, activated partial thromboplastin time, and fibrin degradation products, were examined in those patients on arrival. To determine the formula that predicts the injury severity score, multiple linear regression analysis was carried out. The injury severity score was set as the dependent variable, and the other parameters were set as candidate objective variables. IBM spss Statistics 20 was used for the statistical analysis. Statistical significance was set at P  Watson ratio was 2.200. A formula for predicting the injury severity score in trauma patients was developed with ordinary parameters such as fibrin degradation products and mean blood pressure. This formula is useful because we can predict the injury severity score easily in the emergency department.

  19. Predicting Career Advancement with Structural Equation Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heimler, Ronald; Rosenberg, Stuart; Morote, Elsa-Sofia

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to use the authors' prior findings concerning basic employability skills in order to determine which skills best predict career advancement potential. Design/methodology/approach: Utilizing survey responses of human resource managers, the employability skills showing the largest relationships to career…

  20. A tissue adaptation model based on strain-dependent collagen degradation and contact-guided cell traction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heck, T A M; Wilson, W; Foolen, J; Cilingir, A C; Ito, K; van Donkelaar, C C

    2015-03-18

    Soft biological tissues adapt their collagen network to the mechanical environment. Collagen remodeling and cell traction are both involved in this process. The present study presents a collagen adaptation model which includes strain-dependent collagen degradation and contact-guided cell traction. Cell traction is determined by the prevailing collagen structure and is assumed to strive for tensional homeostasis. In addition, collagen is assumed to mechanically fail if it is over-strained. Care is taken to use principally measurable and physiologically meaningful relationships. This model is implemented in a fibril-reinforced biphasic finite element model for soft hydrated tissues. The versatility and limitations of the model are demonstrated by corroborating the predicted transient and equilibrium collagen adaptation under distinct mechanical constraints against experimental observations from the literature. These experiments include overloading of pericardium explants until failure, static uniaxial and biaxial loading of cell-seeded gels in vitro and shortening of periosteum explants. In addition, remodeling under hypothetical conditions is explored to demonstrate how collagen might adapt to small differences in constraints. Typical aspects of all essentially different experimental conditions are captured quantitatively or qualitatively. Differences between predictions and experiments as well as new insights that emerge from the present simulations are discussed. This model is anticipated to evolve into a mechanistic description of collagen adaptation, which may assist in developing load-regimes for functional tissue engineered constructs, or may be employed to improve our understanding of the mechanisms behind physiological and pathological collagen remodeling. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Strain Differences in Antioxidants in Rat Models of Cardiovascular Disease Exposed to Ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    We examined the hypothesis that antioxidant substances and enzymes in lung, heart and in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) are altered in response to 03 in cardiovascular disease and/or metabolic syndrome (CVD)-prone rat models. CVD strains [spontaneously hypertensive (SH), SH ...

  2. Deeper Insight into the Diels-Alder Reaction through the Activation Strain Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fernandez, Israel; Bickelhaupt, F. Matthias

    2016-01-01

    In this Focus Review, we present the application of the so-called Activation Strain Model of chemical reactivity to the Diels–Alder cycloaddition reaction. To this end, representative recent examples have been selected to illustrate the power of this new computational approach to gain a deeper

  3. Deeper Insight into the Diels-Alder Reaction through the Activation Strain Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fernandez, I.; Bickelhaupt, F.M.

    2016-01-01

    The Diels–Alder (DA) cycloaddition reaction has the ability to significantly increase molecular complexity regioselectively and stereospecifically in a single synthetic step. In this review it is discussed how the activation strain model of chemical reactivity reveals the physical factors that

  4. Numerical modeling of large field-induced strains in ferroelastic bodies: a continuum approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raikher, Yu L; Stolbov, O V

    2008-01-01

    A consistent continuum model of a soft magnetic elastomer (SME) is presented and developed for the case of finite strain. The numeric algorithm enabling one to find the field-induced shape changes of an SME body is described. The reliability of the method is illustrated by several examples revealing specifics of the magnetostriction effect in SME samples of various geometries

  5. Analyzing Reaction Rates with the Distortion/Interaction-Activation Strain Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bickelhaupt, F. Matthias; Houk, Kendall N.

    2017-01-01

    The activation strain or distortion/interaction model is a tool to analyze activation barriers that determine reaction rates. For bimolecular reactions, the activation energies are the sum of the energies to distort the reactants into geometries they have in transition states plus the interaction

  6. Predicted Strain Coverage of a New Meningococcal Multicomponent Vaccine (4CMenB in Spain: Analysis of the Differences with Other European Countries.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raquel Abad

    Full Text Available A novel meningococcal multicomponent vaccine, 4CMenB (Bexsero®, has been approved in Europe, Canada, Australia and US. The potential impact of 4CMenB on strain coverage is being estimated by using Meningococcal Antigen Typing System (MATS, an ELISA assay which measures vaccine antigen expression and diversity in each strain. Here we show the genetic characterization and the 4CMenB potential coverage of Spanish invasive strains (collected during one epidemiological year compared to other European countries and discuss the potential reasons for the lower estimate of coverage in Spain.A panel of 300 strains, a representative sample of all serogroup B Neisseria meningitidis notified cases in Spain from 2009 to 2010, was characterized by multilocus sequence typing (MLST and FetA variable region determination. 4CMenB vaccine antigens, PorA, factor H binding protein (fHbp, Neisseria Heparin Binding Antigen (NHBA and Neisserial adhesin A (NadA were molecularly typed by sequencing. PorA coverage was assigned to strain with VR2 = 4. The levels of expression and cross-reactivity of fHbp, NHBA and NadA were analyzed using MATS ELISA.Global estimated strain coverage by MATS was 68.67% (95% CI: 47.77-84.59%, with 51.33%, 15.33% and 2% of strains covered by one, two and three vaccine antigens, respectively. The predicted strain coverage by individual antigens was: 42% NHBA, 36.33% fHbp, 8.33% PorA and 1.33% NadA. Coverage within the most prevalent clonal complexes (cc was 70.37% for cc 269, 30.19% for cc 213 and 95.83% for cc 32.Clonal complexes (cc distribution accounts for variations in strain coverage, so that country-by-country investigations of strain coverage and cc prevalence are important. Because the cc distribution could also vary over time, which in turn could lead to changes in strain coverage, continuous detailed surveillance and monitoring of vaccine antigens expression is needed in those countries where the multicomponent vaccine is introduced

  7. Statistical model based gender prediction for targeted NGS clinical panels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Palani Kannan Kandavel

    2017-12-01

    The reference test dataset are being used to test the model. The sensitivity on predicting the gender has been increased from the current “genotype composition in ChrX” based approach. In addition, the prediction score given by the model can be used to evaluate the quality of clinical dataset. The higher prediction score towards its respective gender indicates the higher quality of sequenced data.

  8. A predictive pilot model for STOL aircraft landing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinman, D. L.; Killingsworth, W. R.

    1974-01-01

    An optimal control approach has been used to model pilot performance during STOL flare and landing. The model is used to predict pilot landing performance for three STOL configurations, each having a different level of automatic control augmentation. Model predictions are compared with flight simulator data. It is concluded that the model can be effective design tool for studying analytically the effects of display modifications, different stability augmentation systems, and proposed changes in the landing area geometry.

  9. Estimating Model Prediction Error: Should You Treat Predictions as Fixed or Random?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallach, Daniel; Thorburn, Peter; Asseng, Senthold; Challinor, Andrew J.; Ewert, Frank; Jones, James W.; Rotter, Reimund; Ruane, Alexander

    2016-01-01

    Crop models are important tools for impact assessment of climate change, as well as for exploring management options under current climate. It is essential to evaluate the uncertainty associated with predictions of these models. We compare two criteria of prediction error; MSEP fixed, which evaluates mean squared error of prediction for a model with fixed structure, parameters and inputs, and MSEP uncertain( X), which evaluates mean squared error averaged over the distributions of model structure, inputs and parameters. Comparison of model outputs with data can be used to estimate the former. The latter has a squared bias term, which can be estimated using hindcasts, and a model variance term, which can be estimated from a simulation experiment. The separate contributions to MSEP uncertain (X) can be estimated using a random effects ANOVA. It is argued that MSEP uncertain (X) is the more informative uncertainty criterion, because it is specific to each prediction situation.

  10. Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pearson, R. G.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Bastos Araujo, Miguel

    2006-01-01

    Aim Many attempts to predict the potential range of species rely on environmental niche (or 'bioclimate envelope') modelling, yet the effects of using different niche-based methodologies require further investigation. Here we investigate the impact that the choice of model can have on predictions...

  11. Wind turbine control and model predictive control for uncertain systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Sven Creutz

    as disturbance models for controller design. The theoretical study deals with Model Predictive Control (MPC). MPC is an optimal control method which is characterized by the use of a receding prediction horizon. MPC has risen in popularity due to its inherent ability to systematically account for time...

  12. Testing and analysis of internal hardwood log defect prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. Edward Thomas

    2011-01-01

    The severity and location of internal defects determine the quality and value of lumber sawn from hardwood logs. Models have been developed to predict the size and position of internal defects based on external defect indicator measurements. These models were shown to predict approximately 80% of all internal knots based on external knot indicators. However, the size...

  13. Comparison of Simple Versus Performance-Based Fall Prediction Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shekhar K. Gadkaree BS

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To compare the predictive ability of standard falls prediction models based on physical performance assessments with more parsimonious prediction models based on self-reported data. Design: We developed a series of fall prediction models progressing in complexity and compared area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC across models. Setting: National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS, which surveyed a nationally representative sample of Medicare enrollees (age ≥65 at baseline (Round 1: 2011-2012 and 1-year follow-up (Round 2: 2012-2013. Participants: In all, 6,056 community-dwelling individuals participated in Rounds 1 and 2 of NHATS. Measurements: Primary outcomes were 1-year incidence of “ any fall ” and “ recurrent falls .” Prediction models were compared and validated in development and validation sets, respectively. Results: A prediction model that included demographic information, self-reported problems with balance and coordination, and previous fall history was the most parsimonious model that optimized AUC for both any fall (AUC = 0.69, 95% confidence interval [CI] = [0.67, 0.71] and recurrent falls (AUC = 0.77, 95% CI = [0.74, 0.79] in the development set. Physical performance testing provided a marginal additional predictive value. Conclusion: A simple clinical prediction model that does not include physical performance testing could facilitate routine, widespread falls risk screening in the ambulatory care setting.

  14. Models for predicting fuel consumption in sagebrush-dominated ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clinton S. Wright

    2013-01-01

    Fuel consumption predictions are necessary to accurately estimate or model fire effects, including pollutant emissions during wildland fires. Fuel and environmental measurements on a series of operational prescribed fires were used to develop empirical models for predicting fuel consumption in big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentate Nutt.) ecosystems....

  15. Refining the Committee Approach and Uncertainty Prediction in Hydrological Modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kayastha, N.

    2014-01-01

    Due to the complexity of hydrological systems a single model may be unable to capture the full range of a catchment response and accurately predict the streamflows. The multi modelling approach opens up possibilities for handling such difficulties and allows improve the predictive capability of

  16. A new, accurate predictive model for incident hypertension

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Völzke, Henry; Fung, Glenn; Ittermann, Till

    2013-01-01

    Data mining represents an alternative approach to identify new predictors of multifactorial diseases. This work aimed at building an accurate predictive model for incident hypertension using data mining procedures.......Data mining represents an alternative approach to identify new predictors of multifactorial diseases. This work aimed at building an accurate predictive model for incident hypertension using data mining procedures....

  17. Prediction models for successful external cephalic version: a systematic review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Velzel, Joost; de Hundt, Marcella; Mulder, Frederique M.; Molkenboer, Jan F. M.; van der Post, Joris A. M.; Mol, Ben W.; Kok, Marjolein

    2015-01-01

    To provide an overview of existing prediction models for successful ECV, and to assess their quality, development and performance. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library to identify all articles reporting on prediction models for successful ECV published from inception to January 2015.

  18. Hidden Markov Model for quantitative prediction of snowfall

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) has been developed for prediction of quantitative snowfall in Pir-Panjal and Great Himalayan mountain ranges of Indian Himalaya. The model predicts snowfall for two days in advance using daily recorded nine meteorological variables of past 20 winters from 1992–2012. There are six ...

  19. Mathematical model for dissolved oxygen prediction in Cirata ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper presents the implementation and performance of mathematical model to predict theconcentration of dissolved oxygen in Cirata Reservoir, West Java by using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The simulation program was created using Visual Studio 2012 C# software with ANN model implemented in it. Prediction ...

  20. A poroelastic reservoir model for predicting subsidence and mapping subsurface pressure fronts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Du, J.; Olson, J.E.

    2001-01-01

    A forward model was constructed to numerically predict surface subsidence and reservoir compaction following the approach of Segall [Pure Appl. Phys. 139 (1992) 536]. A nucleus of poroelastic strain is numerically integrated over a rectangular prism assuming constant pressure change. This fundamental geometry allows a reservoir to be divided into many small cubic blocks in a manner similar to reservoir simulation. The subsidence and compaction effects of the pressure change throughout the reservoir are calculated by the superposition of results from each individual block. Using forward modeling, pressure boundary conditions can be acquired from pressure test data or reservoir simulation predictions. An inversion model also was developed that can track pressure fronts in a subsurface reservoir using surface displacements. The capability of the inversion model was demonstrated using synthetic examples of one-well and four-well cases with different layouts of surface observation locations. The impact of noise on the inversion result is also included