Comparative Study of Bancruptcy Prediction Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Isye Arieshanti
2013-09-01
Full Text Available Early indication of bancruptcy is important for a company. If companies aware of potency of their bancruptcy, they can take a preventive action to anticipate the bancruptcy. In order to detect the potency of a bancruptcy, a company can utilize a a model of bancruptcy prediction. The prediction model can be built using a machine learning methods. However, the choice of machine learning methods should be performed carefully. Because the suitability of a model depends on the problem specifically. Therefore, in this paper we perform a comparative study of several machine leaning methods for bancruptcy prediction. According to the comparative study, the performance of several models that based on machine learning methods (k-NN, fuzzy k-NN, SVM, Bagging Nearest Neighbour SVM, Multilayer Perceptron(MLP, Hybrid of MLP + Multiple Linear Regression, it can be showed that fuzzy k-NN method achieve the best performance with accuracy 77.5%
Wessler, Benjamin S; Lai Yh, Lana; Kramer, Whitney; Cangelosi, Michael; Raman, Gowri; Lutz, Jennifer S; Kent, David M
2015-07-01
Clinical prediction models (CPMs) estimate the probability of clinical outcomes and hold the potential to improve decision making and individualize care. For patients with cardiovascular disease, there are numerous CPMs available although the extent of this literature is not well described. We conducted a systematic review for articles containing CPMs for cardiovascular disease published between January 1990 and May 2012. Cardiovascular disease includes coronary heart disease, heart failure, arrhythmias, stroke, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral vascular disease. We created a novel database and characterized CPMs based on the stage of development, population under study, performance, covariates, and predicted outcomes. There are 796 models included in this database. The number of CPMs published each year is increasing steadily over time. Seven hundred seventeen (90%) are de novo CPMs, 21 (3%) are CPM recalibrations, and 58 (7%) are CPM adaptations. This database contains CPMs for 31 index conditions, including 215 CPMs for patients with coronary artery disease, 168 CPMs for population samples, and 79 models for patients with heart failure. There are 77 distinct index/outcome pairings. Of the de novo models in this database, 450 (63%) report a c-statistic and 259 (36%) report some information on calibration. There is an abundance of CPMs available for a wide assortment of cardiovascular disease conditions, with substantial redundancy in the literature. The comparative performance of these models, the consistency of effects and risk estimates across models and the actual and potential clinical impact of this body of literature is poorly understood. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.
Comparing National Water Model Inundation Predictions with Hydrodynamic Modeling
Egbert, R. J.; Shastry, A.; Aristizabal, F.; Luo, C.
2017-12-01
The National Water Model (NWM) simulates the hydrologic cycle and produces streamflow forecasts, runoff, and other variables for 2.7 million reaches along the National Hydrography Dataset for the continental United States. NWM applies Muskingum-Cunge channel routing which is based on the continuity equation. However, the momentum equation also needs to be considered to obtain better estimates of streamflow and stage in rivers especially for applications such as flood inundation mapping. Simulation Program for River NeTworks (SPRNT) is a fully dynamic model for large scale river networks that solves the full nonlinear Saint-Venant equations for 1D flow and stage height in river channel networks with non-uniform bathymetry. For the current work, the steady-state version of the SPRNT model was leveraged. An evaluation on SPRNT's and NWM's abilities to predict inundation was conducted for the record flood of Hurricane Matthew in October 2016 along the Neuse River in North Carolina. This event was known to have been influenced by backwater effects from the Hurricane's storm surge. Retrospective NWM discharge predictions were converted to stage using synthetic rating curves. The stages from both models were utilized to produce flood inundation maps using the Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND) method which uses the local relative heights to provide a spatial representation of inundation depths. In order to validate the inundation produced by the models, Sentinel-1A synthetic aperture radar data in the VV and VH polarizations along with auxiliary data was used to produce a reference inundation map. A preliminary, binary comparison of the inundation maps to the reference, limited to the five HUC-12 areas of Goldsboro, NC, yielded that the flood inundation accuracies for NWM and SPRNT were 74.68% and 78.37%, respectively. The differences for all the relevant test statistics including accuracy, true positive rate, true negative rate, and positive predictive value were found
Atterberg Limits Prediction Comparing SVM with ANFIS Model
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Mohammad Murtaza Sherzoy
2017-03-01
Full Text Available Support Vector Machine (SVM and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy inference Systems (ANFIS both analytical methods are used to predict the values of Atterberg limits, such as the liquid limit, plastic limit and plasticity index. The main objective of this study is to make a comparison between both forecasts (SVM & ANFIS methods. All data of 54 soil samples are used and taken from the area of Peninsular Malaysian and tested for different parameters containing liquid limit, plastic limit, plasticity index and grain size distribution and were. The input parameter used in for this case are the fraction of grain size distribution which are the percentage of silt, clay and sand. The actual and predicted values of Atterberg limit which obtained from the SVM and ANFIS models are compared by using the correlation coefficient R2 and root mean squared error (RMSE value. The outcome of the study show that the ANFIS model shows higher accuracy than SVM model for the liquid limit (R2 = 0.987, plastic limit (R2 = 0.949 and plastic index (R2 = 0966. RMSE value that obtained for both methods have shown that the ANFIS model has represent the best performance than SVM model to predict the Atterberg Limits as a whole.
Comparative Evaluation of Some Crop Yield Prediction Models ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
A computer program was adopted from the work of Hill et al. (1982) to calibrate and test three of the existing yield prediction models using tropical cowpea yieldÐweather data. The models tested were Hanks Model (first and second versions). Stewart Model (first and second versions) and HallÐButcher Model. Three sets of ...
Comparative Evaluation of Some Crop Yield Prediction Models ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
(1982) to calibrate and test three of the existing yield prediction models using tropical cowpea yieldÐweather data. The models tested were Hanks Model (first and second versions). Stewart Model (first and second versions) and HallÐButcher Model. Three sets of cowpea yield-water use and weather data were collected.
comparative analysis of two mathematical models for prediction
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Abstract. A mathematical modeling for prediction of compressive strength of sandcrete blocks was performed using statistical analysis for the sandcrete block data ob- tained from experimental work done in this study. The models used are Scheffes and Osadebes optimization theories to predict the compressive strength of ...
Comparative Analysis of Two Mathematical Models for Prediction of ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
A mathematical modeling for prediction of compressive strength of sandcrete blocks was performed using statistical analysis for the sandcrete block data obtained from experimental work done in this study. The models used are Scheffe's and Osadebe's optimization theories to predict the compressive strength of sandcrete ...
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Genoveva Rodríguez-Castañeda
Full Text Available Species distribution modeling (SDM is an increasingly important tool to predict the geographic distribution of species. Even though many problems associated with this method have been highlighted and solutions have been proposed, little has been done to increase comparability among studies. We reviewed recent publications applying SDMs and found that seventy nine percent failed to report methods that ensure comparability among studies, such as disclosing the maximum probability range produced by the models and reporting on the number of species occurrences used. We modeled six species of Falco from northern Europe and demonstrate that model results are altered by (1 spatial bias in species' occurrence data, (2 differences in the geographic extent of the environmental data, and (3 the effects of transformation of model output to presence/absence data when applying thresholds. Depending on the modeling decisions, forecasts of the future geographic distribution of Falco ranged from range contraction in 80% of the species to no net loss in any species, with the best model predicting no net loss of habitat in Northern Europe. The fact that predictions of range changes in response to climate change in published studies may be influenced by decisions in the modeling process seriously hampers the possibility of making sound management recommendations. Thus, each of the decisions made in generating SDMs should be reported and evaluated to ensure conclusions and policies are based on the biology and ecology of the species being modeled.
comparative analysis of path loss prediction models for urban
African Journals Online (AJOL)
A. Obota, O. Simeonb, J. Afolayanc. Department of Electrical/Electronics & Computer Engineering, University of Uyo, Akwa. Ibom State .... assignments, proper determination of electric field strength, interference analysis, handover .... model based on extensive drive test measure- ments made in Japan at several frequencies.
Locating Pleistocene Refugia: Comparing Phylogeographic and Ecological Niche Model Predictions
2007-07-01
how well ‘back- casting ’ of ecological niche models can complement phylogeo- graphic approaches in identifying refugia. A clear advantage of the ENM...records: a test case using cryptic geckos in Madagascar. Journal of Biogeography 34: 102–117. 47. Araújo MB, Whittaker RJ, Ladle RJ, Erhard M (2005
Grubbs, Guy; Michell, Robert; Samara, Marilia; Hampton, Donald; Hecht, James; Solomon, Stanley; Jahn, Jorg-Micha
2018-01-01
It is important to routinely examine and update models used to predict auroral emissions resulting from precipitating electrons in Earth's magnetotail. These models are commonly used to invert spectral auroral ground-based images to infer characteristics about incident electron populations when in situ measurements are unavailable. In this work, we examine and compare auroral emission intensities predicted by three commonly used electron transport models using varying electron population characteristics. We then compare model predictions to same-volume in situ electron measurements and ground-based imaging to qualitatively examine modeling prediction error. Initial comparisons showed differences in predictions by the GLobal airglOW (GLOW) model and the other transport models examined. Chemical reaction rates and radiative rates in GLOW were updated using recent publications, and predictions showed better agreement with the other models and the same-volume data, stressing that these rates are important to consider when modeling auroral processes. Predictions by each model exhibit similar behavior for varying atmospheric constants, energies, and energy fluxes. Same-volume electron data and images are highly correlated with predictions by each model, showing that these models can be used to accurately derive electron characteristics and ionospheric parameters based solely on multispectral optical imaging data.
A computational approach to compare regression modelling strategies in prediction research
Pajouheshnia, R.; Pestman, W.R.; Teerenstra, S.; Groenwold, R.H.
2016-01-01
BACKGROUND: It is often unclear which approach to fit, assess and adjust a model will yield the most accurate prediction model. We present an extension of an approach for comparing modelling strategies in linear regression to the setting of logistic regression and demonstrate its application in
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ting Zhou
2017-10-01
Full Text Available Reliable prediction of groundwater depth fluctuations has been an important component in sustainable water resources management. In this study, a data-driven prediction model combining discrete wavelet transform (DWT preprocess and support vector machine (SVM was proposed for groundwater depth forecasting. Regular artificial neural networks (ANN, regular SVM, and wavelet preprocessed artificial neural networks (WANN models were also developed for comparison. These methods were applied to the monthly groundwater depth records over a period of 37 years from ten wells in the Mengcheng County, China. Relative absolute error (RAE, Pearson correlation coefficient (r, root mean square error (RMSE, and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE were adopted for model evaluation. The results indicate that wavelet preprocess extremely improved the training and test performance of ANN and SVM models. The WSVM model provided the most precise and reliable groundwater depth prediction compared with ANN, SVM, and WSVM models. The criterion of RAE, r, RMSE, and NSE values for proposed WSVM model are 0.20, 0.97, 0.18 and 0.94, respectively. Comprehensive comparisons and discussion revealed that wavelet preprocess extremely improves the prediction precision and reliability for both SVM and ANN models. The prediction result of SVM model is superior to ANN model in generalization ability and precision. Nevertheless, the performance of WANN is superior to SVM model, which further validates the power of data preprocess in data-driven prediction models. Finally, the optimal model, WSVM, is discussed by comparing its subseries performances as well as model performance stability, revealing the efficiency and universality of WSVM model in data driven prediction field.
Singleton, Kyle W; Hsu, William; Bui, Alex A T
2012-01-01
The growing amount of electronic data collected from patient care and clinical trials is motivating the creation of national repositories where multiple institutions share data about their patient cohorts. Such efforts aim to provide sufficient sample sizes for data mining and predictive modeling, ultimately improving treatment recommendations and patient outcome prediction. While these repositories offer the potential to improve our understanding of a disease, potential issues need to be addressed to ensure that multi-site data and resultant predictive models are useful to non-contributing institutions. In this paper we examine the challenges of utilizing National Cancer Institute datasets for modeling glioblastoma multiforme. We created several types of prognostic models and compared their results against models generated using data solely from our institution. While overall model performance between the data sources was similar, different variables were selected during model generation, suggesting that mapping data resources between models is not a straightforward issue.
Metal accumulation in the earthworm Lumbricus rubellus. Model predictions compared to field data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Veltman, Karin; Huijbregts, Mark A.J.; Vijver, Martina G.; Peijnenburg, Willie J.G.M.; Hobbelen, Peter H.F.; Koolhaas, Josee E.; Gestel, Cornelis A.M. van; Vliet, Petra C.J. van; Jan Hendriks, A.
2007-01-01
The mechanistic bioaccumulation model OMEGA (Optimal Modeling for Ecotoxicological Applications) is used to estimate accumulation of zinc (Zn), copper (Cu), cadmium (Cd) and lead (Pb) in the earthworm Lumbricus rubellus. Our validation to field accumulation data shows that the model accurately predicts internal cadmium concentrations. In addition, our results show that internal metal concentrations in the earthworm are less than linearly (slope < 1) related to the total concentration in soil, while risk assessment procedures often assume the biota-soil accumulation factor (BSAF) to be constant. Although predicted internal concentrations of all metals are generally within a factor 5 compared to field data, incorporation of regulation in the model is necessary to improve predictability of the essential metals such as zinc and copper. - Earthworm metal concentrations are less than linearly related to total soil concentrations and predicted pore water concentrations
Farkas, Andras; Daroczi, Gergely; Villasurda, Phillip; Dolton, Michael; Nakagaki, Midori; Roberts, Jason A
2016-11-01
Bayesian methods for voriconazole therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) have been reported previously, but there are only sparse reports comparing the accuracy and precision of predictions of published models. Furthermore, the comparative accuracy of linear, mixed linear and nonlinear, or entirely nonlinear models may be of high clinical relevance. In this study, models were coded into individually designed optimum dosing strategies (ID-ODS) with voriconazole concentration data analyzed using inverse Bayesian modeling. The data used were from two independent data sets, patients with proven or suspected invasive fungal infections (n = 57) and hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients (n = 10). Observed voriconazole concentrations were predicted whereby for each concentration value, the data available to that point were used to predict that value. The mean prediction error (ME) and mean squared prediction error (MSE) and their 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated to measure absolute bias and precision, while ΔME and ΔMSE and their 95% CI were used to measure relative bias and precision, respectively. A total of 519 voriconazole concentrations were analyzed using three models. MEs (95% CI) were 0.09 (-0.02, 0.22), 0.23 (0.04, 0.42), and 0.35 (0.16 to 0.54) while the MSEs (95% CI) were 2.1 (1.03, 3.17), 4.98 (0.90, 9.06), and 4.97 (-0.54 to 10.48) for the linear, mixed, and nonlinear models, respectively. In conclusion, while simulations with the linear model were found to be slightly more accurate and similarly precise, the small difference in accuracy is likely negligible from the clinical point of view, making all three approaches appropriate for use in a voriconazole TDM program. Copyright © 2016, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.
Guruprasad, R.; Behera, B. K.
2015-10-01
Quantitative prediction of fabric mechanical properties is an essential requirement for design engineering of textile and apparel products. In this work, the possibility of prediction of bending rigidity of cotton woven fabrics has been explored with the application of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and two hybrid methodologies, namely Neuro-genetic modeling and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) modeling. For this purpose, a set of cotton woven grey fabrics was desized, scoured and relaxed. The fabrics were then conditioned and tested for bending properties. With the database thus created, a neural network model was first developed using back propagation as the learning algorithm. The second model was developed by applying a hybrid learning strategy, in which genetic algorithm was first used as a learning algorithm to optimize the number of neurons and connection weights of the neural network. The Genetic algorithm optimized network structure was further allowed to learn using back propagation algorithm. In the third model, an ANFIS modeling approach was attempted to map the input-output data. The prediction performances of the models were compared and a sensitivity analysis was reported. The results show that the prediction by neuro-genetic and ANFIS models were better in comparison with that of back propagation neural network model.
A computational approach to compare regression modelling strategies in prediction research.
Pajouheshnia, Romin; Pestman, Wiebe R; Teerenstra, Steven; Groenwold, Rolf H H
2016-08-25
It is often unclear which approach to fit, assess and adjust a model will yield the most accurate prediction model. We present an extension of an approach for comparing modelling strategies in linear regression to the setting of logistic regression and demonstrate its application in clinical prediction research. A framework for comparing logistic regression modelling strategies by their likelihoods was formulated using a wrapper approach. Five different strategies for modelling, including simple shrinkage methods, were compared in four empirical data sets to illustrate the concept of a priori strategy comparison. Simulations were performed in both randomly generated data and empirical data to investigate the influence of data characteristics on strategy performance. We applied the comparison framework in a case study setting. Optimal strategies were selected based on the results of a priori comparisons in a clinical data set and the performance of models built according to each strategy was assessed using the Brier score and calibration plots. The performance of modelling strategies was highly dependent on the characteristics of the development data in both linear and logistic regression settings. A priori comparisons in four empirical data sets found that no strategy consistently outperformed the others. The percentage of times that a model adjustment strategy outperformed a logistic model ranged from 3.9 to 94.9 %, depending on the strategy and data set. However, in our case study setting the a priori selection of optimal methods did not result in detectable improvement in model performance when assessed in an external data set. The performance of prediction modelling strategies is a data-dependent process and can be highly variable between data sets within the same clinical domain. A priori strategy comparison can be used to determine an optimal logistic regression modelling strategy for a given data set before selecting a final modelling approach.
A comparative study of two prediction models for brain tumor progression
Zhou, Deqi; Tran, Loc; Wang, Jihong; Li, Jiang
2015-03-01
MR diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) technique together with traditional T1 or T2 weighted MRI scans supplies rich information sources for brain cancer diagnoses. These images form large-scale, high-dimensional data sets. Due to the fact that significant correlations exist among these images, we assume low-dimensional geometry data structures (manifolds) are embedded in the high-dimensional space. Those manifolds might be hidden from radiologists because it is challenging for human experts to interpret high-dimensional data. Identification of the manifold is a critical step for successfully analyzing multimodal MR images. We have developed various manifold learning algorithms (Tran et al. 2011; Tran et al. 2013) for medical image analysis. This paper presents a comparative study of an incremental manifold learning scheme (Tran. et al. 2013) versus the deep learning model (Hinton et al. 2006) in the application of brain tumor progression prediction. The incremental manifold learning is a variant of manifold learning algorithm to handle large-scale datasets in which a representative subset of original data is sampled first to construct a manifold skeleton and remaining data points are then inserted into the skeleton by following their local geometry. The incremental manifold learning algorithm aims at mitigating the computational burden associated with traditional manifold learning methods for large-scale datasets. Deep learning is a recently developed multilayer perceptron model that has achieved start-of-the-art performances in many applications. A recent technique named "Dropout" can further boost the deep model by preventing weight coadaptation to avoid over-fitting (Hinton et al. 2012). We applied the two models on multiple MRI scans from four brain tumor patients to predict tumor progression and compared the performances of the two models in terms of average prediction accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and precision. The quantitative performance metrics were
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kyle A McQuisten
2009-10-01
Full Text Available Exogenous short interfering RNAs (siRNAs induce a gene knockdown effect in cells by interacting with naturally occurring RNA processing machinery. However not all siRNAs induce this effect equally. Several heterogeneous kinds of machine learning techniques and feature sets have been applied to modeling siRNAs and their abilities to induce knockdown. There is some growing agreement to which techniques produce maximally predictive models and yet there is little consensus for methods to compare among predictive models. Also, there are few comparative studies that address what the effect of choosing learning technique, feature set or cross validation approach has on finding and discriminating among predictive models.Three learning techniques were used to develop predictive models for effective siRNA sequences including Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs, General Linear Models (GLMs and Support Vector Machines (SVMs. Five feature mapping methods were also used to generate models of siRNA activities. The 2 factors of learning technique and feature mapping were evaluated by complete 3x5 factorial ANOVA. Overall, both learning techniques and feature mapping contributed significantly to the observed variance in predictive models, but to differing degrees for precision and accuracy as well as across different kinds and levels of model cross-validation.The methods presented here provide a robust statistical framework to compare among models developed under distinct learning techniques and feature sets for siRNAs. Further comparisons among current or future modeling approaches should apply these or other suitable statistically equivalent methods to critically evaluate the performance of proposed models. ANN and GLM techniques tend to be more sensitive to the inclusion of noisy features, but the SVM technique is more robust under large numbers of features for measures of model precision and accuracy. Features found to result in maximally predictive models are
Hering, Amanda S.
2011-11-01
Under a general loss function, we develop a hypothesis test to determine whether a significant difference in the spatial predictions produced by two competing models exists on average across the entire spatial domain of interest. The null hypothesis is that of no difference, and a spatial loss differential is created based on the observed data, the two sets of predictions, and the loss function chosen by the researcher. The test assumes only isotropy and short-range spatial dependence of the loss differential but does allow it to be non-Gaussian, non-zero-mean, and spatially correlated. Constant and nonconstant spatial trends in the loss differential are treated in two separate cases. Monte Carlo simulations illustrate the size and power properties of this test, and an example based on daily average wind speeds in Oklahoma is used for illustration. Supplemental results are available online. © 2011 American Statistical Association and the American Society for Qualitys.
A comparative study of four intensive care outcome prediction models in cardiac surgery patients
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lehmann Thomas
2011-03-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Outcome prediction scoring systems are increasingly used in intensive care medicine, but most were not developed for use in cardiac surgery patients. We compared the performance of four intensive care outcome prediction scoring systems (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II [APACHE II], Simplified Acute Physiology Score II [SAPS II], Sequential Organ Failure Assessment [SOFA], and Cardiac Surgery Score [CASUS] in patients after open heart surgery. Methods We prospectively included all consecutive adult patients who underwent open heart surgery and were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU between January 1st 2007 and December 31st 2008. Scores were calculated daily from ICU admission until discharge. The outcome measure was ICU mortality. The performance of the four scores was assessed by calibration and discrimination statistics. Derived variables (Mean- and Max- scores were also evaluated. Results During the study period, 2801 patients (29.6% female were included. Mean age was 66.9 ± 10.7 years and the ICU mortality rate was 5.2%. Calibration tests for SOFA and CASUS were reliable throughout (p-value not Conclusions CASUS and SOFA are reliable ICU mortality risk stratification models for cardiac surgery patients. SAPS II and APACHE II did not perform well in terms of calibration and discrimination statistics.
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Shadab Ahmed
2012-06-01
Full Text Available The phylogenetic analysis of Clostridium thermocellum family 43 glycoside hydrolase (CtGH43 showed close evolutionary relation with carbohydrate binding family 6 proteins from C. cellulolyticum, C. papyrosolvens, C. cellulyticum, and A. cellulyticum. Comparative modeling of CtGH43 was performed based on crystal structures with PDB IDs 3C7F, 1YIF, 1YRZ, 2EXH and 1WL7. The structure having lowest MODELLER objective function was selected. The three-dimensional structure revealed typical 5-fold beta–propeller architecture. Energy minimization and validation of predicted model with VERIFY 3D indicated acceptability of the proposed atomic structure. The Ramachandran plot analysis by RAMPAGE confirmed that family 43 glycoside hydrolase (CtGH43 contains little or negligible segments of helices. It also showed that out of 301 residues, 267 (89.3% were in most favoured region, 23 (7.7% were in allowed region and 9 (3.0% were in outlier region. IUPred analysis of CtGH43 showed no disordered region. Active site analysis showed presence of two Asp and one Glu, assumed to form a catalytic triad. This study gives us information about three-dimensional structure and reaffirms the fact that it has the similar core 5-fold beta–propeller architecture and so probably has the same inverting mechanism of action with the formation of above mentioned catalytic triad for catalysis of polysaccharides.
Zhou, Lim Yi; Shan, Fam Pei; Shimizu, Kunio; Imoto, Tomoaki; Lateh, Habibah; Peng, Koay Swee
2017-08-01
A comparative study of logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM) and least square support vector machine (LSSVM) models has been done to predict the slope failure (landslide) along East-West Highway (Gerik-Jeli). The effects of two monsoon seasons (southwest and northeast) that occur in Malaysia are considered in this study. Two related factors of occurrence of slope failure are included in this study: rainfall and underground water. For each method, two predictive models are constructed, namely SOUTHWEST and NORTHEAST models. Based on the results obtained from logistic regression models, two factors (rainfall and underground water level) contribute to the occurrence of slope failure. The accuracies of the three statistical models for two monsoon seasons are verified by using Relative Operating Characteristics curves. The validation results showed that all models produced prediction of high accuracy. For the results of SVM and LSSVM, the models using RBF kernel showed better prediction compared to the models using linear kernel. The comparative results showed that, for SOUTHWEST models, three statistical models have relatively similar performance. For NORTHEAST models, logistic regression has the best predictive efficiency whereas the SVM model has the second best predictive efficiency.
A comparative study of four intensive care outcome prediction models in cardiac surgery patients.
Doerr, Fabian; Badreldin, Akmal Ma; Heldwein, Matthias B; Bossert, Torsten; Richter, Markus; Lehmann, Thomas; Bayer, Ole; Hekmat, Khosro
2011-03-01
Outcome prediction scoring systems are increasingly used in intensive care medicine, but most were not developed for use in cardiac surgery patients. We compared the performance of four intensive care outcome prediction scoring systems (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II [APACHE II], Simplified Acute Physiology Score II [SAPS II], Sequential Organ Failure Assessment [SOFA], and Cardiac Surgery Score [CASUS]) in patients after open heart surgery. We prospectively included all consecutive adult patients who underwent open heart surgery and were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) between January 1st 2007 and December 31st 2008. Scores were calculated daily from ICU admission until discharge. The outcome measure was ICU mortality. The performance of the four scores was assessed by calibration and discrimination statistics. Derived variables (Mean- and Max- scores) were also evaluated. During the study period, 2801 patients (29.6% female) were included. Mean age was 66.9 ± 10.7 years and the ICU mortality rate was 5.2%. Calibration tests for SOFA and CASUS were reliable throughout (p-value not predicted and observed outcome for SAPS II (days 1, 2, 3 and 5) and APACHE II (days 2 and 3). CASUS, and its mean- and maximum-derivatives, discriminated better between survivors and non-survivors than the other scores throughout the study (area under curve ≥ 0.90). In order of best discrimination, CASUS was followed by SOFA, then SAPS II, and finally APACHE II. SAPS II and APACHE II derivatives had discrimination results that were superior to those of the SOFA derivatives. CASUS and SOFA are reliable ICU mortality risk stratification models for cardiac surgery patients. SAPS II and APACHE II did not perform well in terms of calibration and discrimination statistics.
Peak power prediction in junior basketballers: comparing linear and allometric models.
Duncan, Michael J; Hankey, Joanne; Lyons, Mark; James, Rob S; Nevill, Alan M
2013-03-01
Equations, commonly used to predict peak power from jump height, have relied on linear additive models that are biologically unsound beyond the range of observations because of high negative intercept values. This study explored the utility of allometric multiplicative modeling to better predict peak power in adolescent basketball players. Seventy-seven elite junior basketball players (62 adolescent boys, 15 adolescent girls, age = 16.8 ± 0.8 years) performed 3 counter movement jumps (CMJs) on a force platform. Both linear and multiplicative models were then used to determine their efficacy. Four previously published linear equations were significantly associated with actual peak power (all p equations by Sayers (both p Allometric modeling was used to determine an alternative biologically sound equation which was more strongly associated with (r = 0.886, p 0.05), actual peak power and predicted 77.9% of the variance in actual peak power (adjusted R = 0.779, p equation was significantly associated (r = 0.871, p 0.05) and offered a more accurate estimation of peak power than previously validated linear additive models examined in this study. The allometric model determined from this study or the multiplicative model (body mass × CMJ height) provides biologically sound models to accurately estimate peak power in elite adolescent basketballers that are more accurate than equations based on linear additive models.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Janssen Stefan
2011-11-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Many bioinformatics tools for RNA secondary structure analysis are based on a thermodynamic model of RNA folding. They predict a single, "optimal" structure by free energy minimization, they enumerate near-optimal structures, they compute base pair probabilities and dot plots, representative structures of different abstract shapes, or Boltzmann probabilities of structures and shapes. Although all programs refer to the same physical model, they implement it with considerable variation for different tasks, and little is known about the effects of heuristic assumptions and model simplifications used by the programs on the outcome of the analysis. Results We extract four different models of the thermodynamic folding space which underlie the programs RNAFOLD, RNASHAPES, and RNASUBOPT. Their differences lie within the details of the energy model and the granularity of the folding space. We implement probabilistic shape analysis for all models, and introduce the shape probability shift as a robust measure of model similarity. Using four data sets derived from experimentally solved structures, we provide a quantitative evaluation of the model differences. Conclusions We find that search space granularity affects the computed shape probabilities less than the over- or underapproximation of free energy by a simplified energy model. Still, the approximations perform similar enough to implementations of the full model to justify their continued use in settings where computational constraints call for simpler algorithms. On the side, we observe that the rarely used level 2 shapes, which predict the complete arrangement of helices, multiloops, internal loops and bulges, include the "true" shape in a rather small number of predicted high probability shapes. This calls for an investigation of new strategies to extract high probability members from the (very large level 2 shape space of an RNA sequence. We provide implementations of all four
Cowan, Renee A; Eriksson, Ane Gerda Zahl; Jaber, Sara M; Zhou, Qin; Iasonos, Alexia; Zivanovic, Oliver; Leitao, Mario M; Abu-Rustum, Nadeem R; Chi, Dennis S; Gardner, Ginger J
2017-05-01
We sought to examine compliance and outcomes using Memorial Sloan Kettering "(MSK) criteria" to predict complete gross resection (CGR) and compare them with the validated Tian and AGO models. Patients who underwent SCS for recurrent platinum-sensitive ovarian cancer from 5/2001-6/2014 were identified. The AGO and Tian models were applied to the study population; appropriate statistical tests were used to determine ability to predict CGR. 214 SCS cases were identified. Since the implementation of MSK criteria, the CGR rate has been 86%. The AGO model had a 49% accuracy rate in predicting CGR, and predicted gross residual disease (RD) in 51%; however, CGR was achieved in 86%. The Tian model had an 88% accuracy rate. Of the 4% scored as Tian high risk for gross RD, 33% achieved a CGR. Comparing models, McNemar's p-value was 0.366 between the Tian and MSK models and models; however, the latter has fewer variables and is more user-friendly. Tian criteria may be applied to intermediate MSK cases for further stratification. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.
Comparative Analysis of Predictive Models for Liver Toxicity Using ToxCast Assays and Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationships Jie Liu1,2, Richard Judson1, Matthew T. Martin1, Huixiao Hong3, Imran Shah1 1National Center for Computational Toxicology (NCCT), US EPA, RTP, NC...
Comparative Study of foF2 Measurements with IRI-2007 Model Predictions During Extended Solar Minimum
Zakharenkova, I. E.; Krankowski, A.; Bilitza, D.; Cherniak, Iu.V.; Shagimuratov, I.I.; Sieradzki, R.
2013-01-01
The unusually deep and extended solar minimum of cycle 2324 made it very difficult to predict the solar indices 1 or 2 years into the future. Most of the predictions were proven wrong by the actual observed indices. IRI gets its solar, magnetic, and ionospheric indices from an indices file that is updated twice a year. In recent years, due to the unusual solar minimum, predictions had to be corrected downward with every new indices update. In this paper we analyse how much the uncertainties in the predictability of solar activity indices affect the IRI outcome and how the IRI values calculated with predicted and observed indices compared to the actual measurements.Monthly median values of F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) derived from the ionosonde measurements at the mid-latitude ionospheric station Juliusruh were compared with the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2007) model predictions. The analysis found that IRIprovides reliable results that compare well with actual measurements, when the definite (observed and adjusted) indices of solar activityare used, while IRI values based on earlier predictions of these indices noticeably overestimated the measurements during the solar minimum.One of the principal objectives of this paper is to direct attention of IRI users to update their solar activity indices files regularly.Use of an older index file can lead to serious IRI overestimations of F-region electron density during the recent extended solar minimum.
Kinetic theory model predictions compared with low-thrust axisymmetric nozzle plume data
Riley, B. R.; Fuhrman, S. J.; Penko, P. F.
1993-01-01
A system of nonlinear integral equations equivalent to the steady-state Krook kinetic equation was used to model the flow from a low-thrust axisymmetric nozzle. The mathematical model was used to numerically calculate the number density, temperature, and velocity of a simple gas as it expands into a near vacuum. With these quantities the gas pressure and flow directions of the gas near the exit plane were calculated and compared with experimental values for a low-thrust nozzle of the same geometry and mass flow rate.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Biagioli Bonizella
2007-11-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Different methods have recently been proposed for predicting morbidity in intensive care units (ICU. The aim of the present study was to critically review a number of approaches for developing models capable of estimating the probability of morbidity in ICU after heart surgery. The study is divided into two parts. In this first part, popular models used to estimate the probability of class membership are grouped into distinct categories according to their underlying mathematical principles. Modelling techniques and intrinsic strengths and weaknesses of each model are analysed and discussed from a theoretical point of view, in consideration of clinical applications. Methods Models based on Bayes rule, k-nearest neighbour algorithm, logistic regression, scoring systems and artificial neural networks are investigated. Key issues for model design are described. The mathematical treatment of some aspects of model structure is also included for readers interested in developing models, though a full understanding of mathematical relationships is not necessary if the reader is only interested in perceiving the practical meaning of model assumptions, weaknesses and strengths from a user point of view. Results Scoring systems are very attractive due to their simplicity of use, although this may undermine their predictive capacity. Logistic regression models are trustworthy tools, although they suffer from the principal limitations of most regression procedures. Bayesian models seem to be a good compromise between complexity and predictive performance, but model recalibration is generally necessary. k-nearest neighbour may be a valid non parametric technique, though computational cost and the need for large data storage are major weaknesses of this approach. Artificial neural networks have intrinsic advantages with respect to common statistical models, though the training process may be problematical. Conclusion Knowledge of model
Najaf, Pooya; Duddu, Venkata R; Pulugurtha, Srinivas S
2018-03-01
Machine learning (ML) techniques have higher prediction accuracy compared to conventional statistical methods for crash frequency modelling. However, their black-box nature limits the interpretability. The objective of this research is to combine both ML and statistical methods to develop hybrid link-level crash frequency models with high predictability and interpretability. For this purpose, M5' model trees method (M5') is introduced and applied to classify the crash data and then calibrate a model for each homogenous class. The data for 1134 and 345 randomly selected links on urban arterials in the city of Charlotte, North Carolina was used to develop and validate models, respectively. The outputs from the hybrid approach are compared with the outputs from cluster-based negative binomial regression (NBR) and general NBR models. Findings indicate that M5' has high predictability and is very reliable to interpret the role of different attributes on crash frequency compared to other developed models.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Adel T. Abbas
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The Grade-H high strength steel is used in the manufacturing of many civilian and military products. The procedures of manufacturing these parts have several turning operations. The key factors for the manufacturing of these parts are the accuracy, surface roughness (Ra, and material removal rate (MRR. The production line of these parts contains many CNC turning machines to get good accuracy and repeatability. The manufacturing engineer should fulfill the required surface roughness value according to the design drawing from first trail (otherwise these parts will be rejected as well as keeping his eye on maximum metal removal rate. The rejection of these parts at any processing stage will represent huge problems to any factory because the processing and raw material of these parts are very expensive. In this paper the artificial neural network was used for predicting the surface roughness for different cutting parameters in CNC turning operations. These parameters were investigated to get the minimum surface roughness. In addition, a mathematical model for surface roughness was obtained from the experimental data using a regression analysis method. The experimental data are then compared with both the regression analysis results and ANFIS (Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System estimations.
Boehm, Katharina; Larcher, Alessandro; Beyer, Burkhard; Tian, Zhe; Tilki, Derya; Steuber, Thomas; Karakiewicz, Pierre I; Heinzer, Hans; Graefen, Markus; Budäus, Lars
2016-06-01
The D'Amico risk stratification, Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) score, and Stephenson nomogram are widely used prediction tools for biochemical recurrence and survival after radical prostatectomy (RP). These models have not been compared with respect to cancer-specific mortality (CSM) prediction. To validate and compare the prediction tools for 10-yr CSM. Overall, 2485 prostate cancer patients underwent RP in a European tertiary care center. Three preoperative models (D'Amico, CAPRA, and Stephenson) were compared in terms of their ability to predict 10-yr CSM; therefore, accuracy tests (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]), calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were assessed for each model. CSM at 10 yr was 3.6%. The AUC was 0.76, 0.77, and 0.80 for the D'Amico, CAPRA, and Stephenson models, respectively. In calibration plots, predicted probabilities were close to the observed probabilities for the D'Amico model but showed underestimation of CSM for the Stephenson nomogram and overestimation of CSM for the CAPRA score. DCA identified a benefit for the CAPRA score. These results apply to patients treated at a European tertiary care center. Despite good discriminatory power, all tested models had some shortcomings in terms of prediction of 10-yr CSM. All three models showed good performance in North American cohorts, but our results suggested a lack of generalizability to European patients. To overcome this issue, local recalibration of the variable weights could be performed. Another possibility is the development of more universal markers that are independent of regional practice differences or, alternatively, the development of better tools to quantify clinical practice differences. Prediction tools can predict cancer survival prior surgery, relying on points for age, prostate-specific antigen levels, aggressiveness, and percentage of cancer at biopsy. These tools are reliable in North American patients but
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Anele, AO
2017-11-01
Full Text Available series models (i.e., autoregressive (AR), moving average (MA), autoregressive-moving average (ARMA), and ARMA with exogenous variable (ARMAX)) introduced by Box and Jenkins (1970), feed-forward back-propagation neural network (FFBP-NN), and hybrid model...
Chang, Douglas C; Piaggi, Paolo; Krakoff, Jonathan
2017-08-01
Accurate prediction of 24-hour energy expenditure (24EE) relies on knowing body composition, in particular fat-free mass (FFM), the largest determinant of 24EE. FFM is closely correlated with hematologic volumes: blood volume (BV), red cell mass (RCM), and plasma volume (PV). However, it is unknown whether predicted hematologic volumes, based on easily collected variables, can improve 24EE prediction. The aim was to develop and validate equations to predict 24EE based on predicted BV, RCM, and PV and to compare the accuracy and agreement with models developed from FFM and with the Mifflin-St Jeor equation, which is recommended for clinical use by the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Participants had body composition measured by underwater weighing and 24EE by respiratory chamber. BV, RCM, and PV were calculated from five published equations. Native American and white men and women were studied (n=351). Participants were healthy adults aged 18 to 49 years from the Phoenix, AZ, metropolitan area. Accuracy to within ±10% of measured 24EE and agreement by Bland-Altman analysis. Regression models to predict 24EE from hematologic and body composition variables were developed in half the dataset and validated in the other half. Hematologic volumes were all strongly correlated with FFM in both men and women (r≥0.94). Whereas the accuracy of FFM alone was 69%, four hematologic volumes were individually more accurate (75% to 78%) in predicting 24EE. Equations based on hematologic volumes plus demographics had mean prediction errors comparable to those based on body composition plus demographics; although the Mifflin-St Jeor had modestly better mean prediction error, body composition, hematologic, and Mifflin-St Jeor models all had similar accuracy (approximately 80%). Prediction equations based on hematologic volumes were developed, validated, and found to be comparable to Mifflin-St Jeor and body composition models in this population of healthy adults. Published by
Beaujean, A Alexander; Parkin, Jason; Parker, Sonia
2014-09-01
Previous research using the Cattell-Horn-Carroll (CHC) theory of cognitive abilities has shown a relationship between cognitive ability and academic achievement. Most of this research, however, has been done using the Woodcock-Johnson family of instruments with a higher order factor model. For CHC theory to grow, research should be done with other assessment instruments and tested with other factor models. This study examined the relationship between different factor models of CHC theory and the factors' relationships with language-based academic achievement (i.e., reading and writing). Using the co-norming sample for the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children--4th Edition and the Wechsler Individual Achievement Test--2nd Edition, we found that bifactor and higher order models of the subtests of the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-4th Edition produced a different set of Stratum II factors, which, in turn, have very different relationships with the language achievement variables of the Wechsler Individual Achievement Test--2nd Edition. We conclude that the factor model used to represent CHC theory makes little difference when general intelligence is of major interest, but it makes a large difference when the Stratum II factors are of primary concern, especially when they are used to predict other variables. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.
Passion, Trait Self-Control, and Wellbeing: Comparing Two Mediation Models Predicting Wellbeing.
Briki, Walid
2017-01-01
Research has found that passion and trait self-control represented key determinants of wellbeing. Yet, no study to date has attempted to investigate the mediating influences of trait self-control and passion for accounting for the relationships between passion, trait self-control, and wellbeing (dependent variable). Using different frameworks, such as the dualistic model of passion and the neo-socioanalytic theory, the present study proposed two mediation models, considering either trait self-control (model 1) or passion (model 2) as the mediating variable. Five hundred nine volunteers from the United States (326 females and 183 males; M age = 31.74, SD age = 11.05, from 18 to 70 years old), who reported being passionate about a specific activity (e.g., fishing, swimming, blogging; M passion = 5.94, SD passion = 0.89), answered questionnaires assessing harmonious and obsessive passion, trait self-control, and wellbeing (measured through hedonic and eudaimonic wellbeing scales). Preliminary analyses revealed that both models were significant ( model 1: absolute GoF = 0.366, relative GoF = 0.971, outer model GoF = 0.997, inner model GoF = 0.973, R 2 = 18.300%, p wellbeing, and no relationships of obsessive passion with trait self-control and wellbeing. Mediation analyses revealed that trait self-control significantly mediated the relationship between harmonious passion and wellbeing (i.e., partial mediation, VAF = 33.136%). Harmonious passion appeared to significantly mediate the positive effect of trait self-control on wellbeing; however, the size of the mediating effect indicated that (almost) no mediation would take place (i.e., VAF = 11.144%). The present study is the first to examine the relationships between passion, trait self-control, and wellbeing, and supports the view that trait self-control and harmonious passion represent not only adaptive and powerful constructs, but also key determinants of wellbeing. Implications for the study of passion, trait self
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Salo, T J; Palosuo, T; Kersebaum, K C
2016-01-01
Eleven widely used crop simulation models (APSIM, CERES, CROPSYST, COUP, DAISY, EPIC, FASSET, HERMES, MONICA, STICS and WOFOST) were tested using spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) data set under varying nitrogen (N) fertilizer rates from three experimental years in the boreal climate of Jokioinen...
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Vagstad, N.; French, H. K.; Andersen, H. E.; Behrendt, H.; Grizzetti, B.; Groenendijk, P.; Lo Porto, A.; Reisser, H.; Siderius, C.; Stromquist, J.; Hejzlar, Josef; Deelstra, J.
2009-01-01
Roč. 11, č. 3 (2009), s. 594-601 ISSN 1464-0325 Grant - others:EC(XE) EVK1-CT-2001-00096 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60170517 Keywords : catchment modelling * phosphorus and nitrogen losses * agriculture practice * diffuse sources Subject RIV: DJ - Water Pollution ; Quality Impact factor: 2.225, year: 2009
Wollkind, David J
2017-01-01
This text demonstrates the process of comprehensive applied mathematical modeling through the introduction of various case studies. The case studies are arranged in increasing order of complexity based on the mathematical methods required to analyze the models. The development of these methods is also included, providing a self-contained presentation. To reinforce and supplement the material introduced, original problem sets are offered involving case studies closely related to the ones presented. With this style, the text’s perspective, scope, and completeness of the subject matter are considered unique. Having grown out of four self-contained courses taught by the authors, this text will be of use in a two-semester sequence for advanced undergraduate and beginning graduate students, requiring rudimentary knowledge of advanced calculus and differential equations, along with a basic understanding of some simple physical and biological scientific principles. .
Gerend, Mary A; Shepherd, Janet E
2012-10-01
Although theories of health behavior have guided thousands of studies, relatively few studies have compared these theories against one another. The purpose of the current study was to compare two classic theories of health behavior-the Health Belief Model (HBM) and the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB)-in their prediction of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination. After watching a gain-framed, loss-framed, or control video, women (N = 739) ages 18-26 completed a survey assessing HBM and TPB constructs. HPV vaccine uptake was assessed 10 months later. Although the message framing intervention had no effect on vaccine uptake, support was observed for both the TPB and HBM. Nevertheless, the TPB consistently outperformed the HBM. Key predictors of uptake included subjective norms, self-efficacy, and vaccine cost. Despite the observed advantage of the TPB, findings revealed considerable overlap between the two theories and highlighted the importance of proximal versus distal predictors of health behavior.
Blanche, Paul; Proust-Lima, Cécile; Loubère, Lucie; Berr, Claudine; Dartigues, Jean-François; Jacqmin-Gadda, Hélène
2015-03-01
Thanks to the growing interest in personalized medicine, joint modeling of longitudinal marker and time-to-event data has recently started to be used to derive dynamic individual risk predictions. Individual predictions are called dynamic because they are updated when information on the subject's health profile grows with time. We focus in this work on statistical methods for quantifying and comparing dynamic predictive accuracy of this kind of prognostic models, accounting for right censoring and possibly competing events. Dynamic area under the ROC curve (AUC) and Brier Score (BS) are used to quantify predictive accuracy. Nonparametric inverse probability of censoring weighting is used to estimate dynamic curves of AUC and BS as functions of the time at which predictions are made. Asymptotic results are established and both pointwise confidence intervals and simultaneous confidence bands are derived. Tests are also proposed to compare the dynamic prediction accuracy curves of two prognostic models. The finite sample behavior of the inference procedures is assessed via simulations. We apply the proposed methodology to compare various prediction models using repeated measures of two psychometric tests to predict dementia in the elderly, accounting for the competing risk of death. Models are estimated on the French Paquid cohort and predictive accuracies are evaluated and compared on the French Three-City cohort. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Belen Hernandez
2018-01-01
Full Text Available Melanoma remains mostly an untreatable fatal disease despite advances in decoding cancer genomics and developing new therapeutic modalities. Progress in patient care would benefit from additional predictive models germane for human disease mechanisms, tumor heterogeneity, and therapeutic responses. Toward this aim, this review documents comparative aspects of human and naturally occurring canine melanomas. Clinical presentation, pathology, therapies, and genetic alterations are highlighted in the context of current basic and translational research in comparative oncology. Somewhat distinct from sun exposure-related human cutaneous melanomas, there is growing evidence that a variety of gene copy number alterations and protein structure/function mutations play roles in canine melanomas, in circumstances more analogous to human mucosal melanomas and to some extent other melanomas with murine sarcoma viral oncogene homolog B (BRAF, Neuroblastoma RAS Viral (V-Ras Oncogene Homolog (NRAS, and neurofibromin 1 tumor suppressor NF1 triple wild-type genotype. Gaps in canine genome annotation, as well as an insufficient number and depth of sequences covered, remain considerable barriers to progress and should be collectively addressed. Preclinical approaches can be designed to include canine clinical trials addressing immune modulation as well as combined-targeted inhibition of Rat Sarcoma Superfamily/Mitogen-activated protein kinase (RAS/MAPK and/or Phosphatidylinositol-3-Kinase/Protein Kinase B/Mammalian target of rapamycin (PI3K/AKT/mTOR signal transduction, pathways frequently activated in both human and canine melanomas. Future investment should be aimed towards improving understanding of canine melanoma as a predictive preclinical surrogate for human melanoma and for mutually benefiting these uniquely co-dependent species.
Mohammad Safeeq; Guillaume S. Mauger; Gordon E. Grant; Ivan Arismendi; Alan F. Hamlet; Se-Yeun Lee
2014-01-01
Assessing uncertainties in hydrologic models can improve accuracy in predicting future streamflow. Here, simulated streamflows using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model at coarse (1/16°) and fine (1/120°) spatial resolutions were evaluated against observed streamflows from 217 watersheds. In...
R. B. Foltz; W. J. Elliot; N. S. Wagenbrenner
2011-01-01
Forested areas disturbed by access roads produce large amounts of sediment. One method to predict erosion and, hence, manage forest roads is the use of physically based soil erosion models. A perceived advantage of a physically based model is that it can be parameterized at one location and applied at another location with similar soil texture or geological parent...
Gerend, Mary A.; Shepherd, Janet E.
2012-01-01
Background Although theories of health behavior have guided thousands of studies, relatively few studies have compared these theories against one another. Purpose The purpose of the current study was to compare two classic theories of health behavior—the Health Belief Model (HBM) and the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB)—in their prediction of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination. Methods After watching a gain-framed, loss-framed, or control video, women (N=739) ages 18–26 completed a survey assessing HBM and TPB constructs. HPV vaccine uptake was assessed ten months later. Results Although the message framing intervention had no effect on vaccine uptake, support was observed for both the TPB and HBM. Nevertheless, the TPB consistently outperformed the HBM. Key predictors of uptake included subjective norms, self-efficacy, and vaccine cost. Conclusions Despite the observed advantage of the TPB, findings revealed considerable overlap between the two theories and highlighted the importance of proximal versus distal predictors of health behavior. PMID:22547155
Kumar, Pankaj; Yoshifumi, Masago; Ammar, Rafieiemam; Mishra, Binaya; Fukushi, Ken
2017-04-01
Uncontrolled release of pollutants, increasing extreme weather condition, rapid urbanization and poor governance posing a serious threat to sustainable water resource management in developing urban spaces. Considering half of the world's mega-cities are in the Asia and the Pacific with 1.7 billion people do not access to improved water and sanitation, water security through its proper management is both an increasing concern and an imperative critical need. This research work strives to give a brief glimpse about predicted future water environment in Bagmati, Pasig and Ciliwung rivers from three different cities viz. Manila, Kathmandu and Jakarta respectively. Hydrological model used here to foresee the collective impacts of rapid population growth because of urbanization as well as climate change on unmet demand and water quality in near future time by 2030. All three rivers are major source of water for different usage viz. domestic, industrial, agriculture and recreation but uncontrolled withdrawal and sewerage disposal causing deterioration of water environment in recent past. Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model was used to model river water quality pollution future scenarios using four indicator species i.e. Dissolved Oxygen (DO), Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD), Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) and Nitrate (NO3). Result for simulated water quality as well as unmet demand for year 2030 when compared with that of reference year clearly indicates that not only water quality deteriorates but also unmet demands is increasing in future course of time. This also suggests that current initiatives and policies for water resource management are not sufficient enough and hence immediate and inclusive action through transdisciplinary research.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bao-Tian Huang
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Purpose. The consistency for predicting local control (LC data using biophysical models for stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT treatment of lung cancer is unclear. This study aims to compare the results calculated from different models using the treatment planning data. Materials and Methods. Treatment plans were designed for 17 patients diagnosed with primary non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC using 5 different fraction schemes. The Martel model, Ohri model, and the Tai model were used to predict the 2-year LC value. The Gucken model, Santiago model, and the Tai model were employed to estimate the 3-year LC data. Results. We found that the employed models resulted in completely different LC prediction except for the Gucken and the Santiago models which exhibited quite similar 3-year LC data. The predicted 2-year and 3-year LC values in different models were not only associated with the dose normalization but also associated with the employed fraction schemes. The greatest difference predicted by different models was up to 15.0%. Conclusions. Our results show that different biophysical models influence the LC prediction and the difference is not only correlated to the dose normalization but also correlated to the employed fraction schemes.
D.C. Bragg; K.M. McElligott
2013-01-01
Sequestration by Arkansas forests removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, storing this carbon in biomass that fills a number of critical ecological and socioeconomic functions. We need a better understanding of the contribution of forests to the carbon cycle, including the accurate quantification of tree biomass. Models have long been developed to predict...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Larsen, Poul Scheel; Filgueira, Ramón; Riisgård, Hans Ulrik
2014-01-01
Prediction of somatic growth of blue mussels, Mytilus edulis, based on the data from 2 field-growth studies of mussels in suspended net-bags in Danish waters was made by 3 models: the bioenergetic growth (BEG), the dynamic energy budget (DEB), and the scope for growth (SFG). Here, the standard BEG...
Larsen, Poul S.; Filgueira, Ramón; Riisgård, Hans Ulrik
2014-04-01
Prediction of somatic growth of blue mussels, Mytilus edulis, based on the data from 2 field-growth studies of mussels in suspended net-bags in Danish waters was made by 3 models: the bioenergetic growth (BEG), the dynamic energy budget (DEB), and the scope for growth (SFG). Here, the standard BEG model has been expanded to include the temperature dependence of filtration rate and respiration and an ad hoc modification to ensure a smooth transition to zero ingestion as chlorophyll a (chl a) concentration approaches zero, both guided by published data. The first 21-day field study was conducted at nearly constant environmental conditions with a mean chl a concentration of C = 2.7 μg L- 1, and the observed monotonous growth in the dry weight of soft parts was best predicted by DEB while BEG and SFG models produced lower growth. The second 165-day field study was affected by large variations in chl a and temperature, and the observed growth varied accordingly, but nevertheless, DEB and SFG predicted monotonous growth in good agreement with the mean pattern while BEG mimicked the field data in response to observed changes in chl a concentration and temperature. The general features of the models were that DEB produced the best average predictions, SFG mostly underestimated growth, whereas only BEG was sensitive to variations in chl a concentration and temperature. DEB and SFG models rely on the calibration of the half-saturation coefficient to optimize the food ingestion function term to that of observed growth, and BEG is independent of observed actual growth as its predictions solely rely on the time history of the local chl a concentration and temperature.
Confidence scores for prediction models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gerds, Thomas Alexander; van de Wiel, MA
2011-01-01
In medical statistics, many alternative strategies are available for building a prediction model based on training data. Prediction models are routinely compared by means of their prediction performance in independent validation data. If only one data set is available for training and validation......, then rival strategies can still be compared based on repeated bootstraps of the same data. Often, however, the overall performance of rival strategies is similar and it is thus difficult to decide for one model. Here, we investigate the variability of the prediction models that results when the same...... to distinguish rival prediction models with similar prediction performances. Furthermore, on the subject level a confidence score may provide useful supplementary information for new patients who want to base a medical decision on predicted risk. The ideas are illustrated and discussed using data from cancer...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Blanche, Paul; Proust-Lima, Cécile; Loubère, Lucie
2015-01-01
Thanks to the growing interest in personalized medicine, joint modeling of longitudinal marker and time-to-event data has recently started to be used to derive dynamic individual risk predictions. Individual predictions are called dynamic because they are updated when information on the subject's...... psychometric tests to predict dementia in the elderly, accounting for the competing risk of death. Models are estimated on the French Paquid cohort and predictive accuracies are evaluated and compared on the French Three-City cohort.......Thanks to the growing interest in personalized medicine, joint modeling of longitudinal marker and time-to-event data has recently started to be used to derive dynamic individual risk predictions. Individual predictions are called dynamic because they are updated when information on the subject......'s health profile grows with time. We focus in this work on statistical methods for quantifying and comparing dynamic predictive accuracy of this kind of prognostic models, accounting for right censoring and possibly competing events. Dynamic area under the ROC curve (AUC) and Brier Score (BS) are used...
Cultural Resource Predictive Modeling
2017-10-01
refining formal, inductive predictive models is the quality of the archaeological and environmental data. To build models efficiently, relevant...geomorphology, and historic information . Lessons Learned: The original model was focused on the identification of prehistoric resources. This...system but uses predictive modeling informally . For example, there is no probability for buried archaeological deposits on the Burton Mesa, but there is
Ingram, T; Harmon, L J; Shurin, J B
2012-09-01
Conceptual models of adaptive radiation predict that competitive interactions among species will result in an early burst of speciation and trait evolution followed by a slowdown in diversification rates. Empirical studies often show early accumulation of lineages in phylogenetic trees, but usually fail to detect early bursts of phenotypic evolution. We use an evolutionary simulation model to assemble food webs through adaptive radiation, and examine patterns in the resulting phylogenetic trees and species' traits (body size and trophic position). We find that when foraging trade-offs result in food webs where all species occupy integer trophic levels, lineage diversity and trait disparity are concentrated early in the tree, consistent with the early burst model. In contrast, in food webs in which many omnivorous species feed at multiple trophic levels, high levels of turnover of species' identities and traits tend to eliminate the early burst signal. These results suggest testable predictions about how the niche structure of ecological communities may be reflected by macroevolutionary patterns. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2012 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.
Predictive modeling of complications.
Osorio, Joseph A; Scheer, Justin K; Ames, Christopher P
2016-09-01
Predictive analytic algorithms are designed to identify patterns in the data that allow for accurate predictions without the need for a hypothesis. Therefore, predictive modeling can provide detailed and patient-specific information that can be readily applied when discussing the risks of surgery with a patient. There are few studies using predictive modeling techniques in the adult spine surgery literature. These types of studies represent the beginning of the use of predictive analytics in spine surgery outcomes. We will discuss the advancements in the field of spine surgery with respect to predictive analytics, the controversies surrounding the technique, and the future directions.
Archaeological predictive model set.
2015-03-01
This report is the documentation for Task 7 of the Statewide Archaeological Predictive Model Set. The goal of this project is to : develop a set of statewide predictive models to assist the planning of transportation projects. PennDOT is developing t...
Comparing Active Vision Models
Croon, G.C.H.E. de; Sprinkhuizen-Kuyper, I.G.; Postma, E.O.
2009-01-01
Active vision models can simplify visual tasks, provided that they can select sensible actions given incoming sensory inputs. Many active vision models have been proposed, but a comparative evaluation of these models is lacking. We present a comparison of active vision models from two different
Comparing active vision models
Croon, G.C.H.E. de; Sprinkhuizen-Kuyper, I.G.; Postma, E.O.
2009-01-01
Active vision models can simplify visual tasks, provided that they can select sensible actions given incoming sensory inputs. Many active vision models have been proposed, but a comparative evaluation of these models is lacking. We present a comparison of active vision models from two different
Levy, R.; Mcginness, H.
1976-01-01
Investigations were performed to predict the power available from the wind at the Goldstone, California, antenna site complex. The background for power prediction was derived from a statistical evaluation of available wind speed data records at this location and at nearby locations similarly situated within the Mojave desert. In addition to a model for power prediction over relatively long periods of time, an interim simulation model that produces sample wind speeds is described. The interim model furnishes uncorrelated sample speeds at hourly intervals that reproduce the statistical wind distribution at Goldstone. A stochastic simulation model to provide speed samples representative of both the statistical speed distributions and correlations is also discussed.
Zephyr - the prediction models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg
2001-01-01
utilities as partners and users. The new models are evaluated for five wind farms in Denmark as well as one wind farm in Spain. It is shown that the predictions based on conditional parametric models are superior to the predictions obatined by state-of-the-art parametric models.......This paper briefly describes new models and methods for predicationg the wind power output from wind farms. The system is being developed in a project which has the research organization Risø and the department of Informatics and Mathematical Modelling (IMM) as the modelling team and all the Danish...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Carlos Ignacio P. Luga
2017-02-01
Full Text Available The Philippine garments industry has been experiencing a roller-coaster ride during the past decades, with much competition from its Asian neighbors, especially in the wake of the ASEAN 2015 Integration. One of the areas in the industry which can be looked into and possibly improved is the concern on Work-related Musculoskeletal Disorders (WMSDs. Literatures have shown that pain from WMSDs among sewing machine operators in this industry is very prevalent and its effects on the same operators have been very costly. After identifying the risk factors which may cause pain from WMSDs, this study generated three models which would predict the said pain level. These models were analyzed, compared and the best model was identified to make the most accurate prediction of pain level. This predictive model would be helpful for management of garment firms since first, the risk factors have been identified and hence can be used as bases for proposed improvements. Second, the prediction of each operator’s pain level would allow management to assess better its employees in terms of their sewing capacity vis-à-vis the company’s production plans.
Inverse and Predictive Modeling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Syracuse, Ellen Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2017-09-27
The LANL Seismo-Acoustic team has a strong capability in developing data-driven models that accurately predict a variety of observations. These models range from the simple – one-dimensional models that are constrained by a single dataset and can be used for quick and efficient predictions – to the complex – multidimensional models that are constrained by several types of data and result in more accurate predictions. Team members typically build models of geophysical characteristics of Earth and source distributions at scales of 1 to 1000s of km, the techniques used are applicable for other types of physical characteristics at an even greater range of scales. The following cases provide a snapshot of some of the modeling work done by the Seismo- Acoustic team at LANL.
Modelling bankruptcy prediction models in Slovak companies
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kovacova Maria
2017-01-01
Full Text Available An intensive research from academics and practitioners has been provided regarding models for bankruptcy prediction and credit risk management. In spite of numerous researches focusing on forecasting bankruptcy using traditional statistics techniques (e.g. discriminant analysis and logistic regression and early artificial intelligence models (e.g. artificial neural networks, there is a trend for transition to machine learning models (support vector machines, bagging, boosting, and random forest to predict bankruptcy one year prior to the event. Comparing the performance of this with unconventional approach with results obtained by discriminant analysis, logistic regression, and neural networks application, it has been found that bagging, boosting, and random forest models outperform the others techniques, and that all prediction accuracy in the testing sample improves when the additional variables are included. On the other side the prediction accuracy of old and well known bankruptcy prediction models is quiet high. Therefore, we aim to analyse these in some way old models on the dataset of Slovak companies to validate their prediction ability in specific conditions. Furthermore, these models will be modelled according to new trends by calculating the influence of elimination of selected variables on the overall prediction ability of these models.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Obeng, S. O
2014-07-01
Recent developments in the electronics industry have led to the widespread use of radiofrequency (RF) devices in various areas including telecommunications. The increasing numbers of mobile base station (BTS) as well as their proximity to residential areas have been accompanied by public health concerns due to the radiation exposure. The main objective of this research was to compare and modify the ITU- T predictive model for radiofrequency radiation emission for BTS with measured data at some selected cell sites in Accra, Ghana. Theoretical and experimental assessment of radiofrequency exposures due to mobile base station antennas have been analysed. The maximum and minimum average power density measured from individual base station in the town was 1. 86µW/m2 and 0.00961µW/m2 respectively. The ITU-T Predictive model power density ranged between 6.40mW/m 2 and 0.344W/m 2 . Results obtained showed a variation between measured power density levels and the ITU-T predictive model. The ITU-T model power density levels decrease with increase in radial distance while real time measurements do not due to fluctuations during measurement. The ITU-T model overestimated the power density levels by a factor l0 5 as compared to real time measurements. The ITU-T model was modified to reduce the level of overestimation. The result showed that radiation intensity varies from one base station to another even at the same distance. Occupational exposure quotient ranged between 5.43E-10 and 1.89E-08 whilst general public exposure quotient ranged between 2.72E-09 and 9.44E-08. From the results, it shows that the RF exposure levels in Accra from these mobile phone base station antennas are below the permitted RF exposure limit to the general public recommended by the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection. (au)
Pan, Wenxiao; Fedosov, Dmitry A.; Caswell, Bruce; Karniadakis, George Em
2011-01-01
We compare the predictive capability of two mathematical models for red blood cells (RBCs) focusing on blood flow in capillaries and arterioles. Both RBC models as well as their corresponding blood flows are based on the dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) method, a coarse-grained molecular dynamics approach. The first model employs a multiscale description of the RBC (MS-RBC), with its membrane represented by hundreds or even thousands of DPD-particles connected by springs into a triangular network in combination with out-of-plane elastic bending resistance. Extra dissipation within the network accounts for membrane viscosity, while the characteristic biconcave RBC shape is achieved by imposition of constraints for constant membrane area and constant cell volume. The second model is based on a low-dimensional description (LD-RBC) constructed as a closed torus-like ring of only 10 large DPD colloidal particles. They are connected into a ring by worm-like chain (WLC) springs combined with bending resistance. The LD-RBC model can be fitted to represent the entire range of nonlinear elastic deformations as measured by optical-tweezers for healthy and for infected RBCs in malaria. MS-RBCs suspensions model the dynamics and rheology of blood flow accurately for any vessel size but this approach is computationally expensive for vessel diameters above 100 microns. Surprisingly, the much more economical suspensions of LD-RBCs also capture the blood flow dynamics and rheology accurately except for small-size vessels comparable to RBC diameter. In particular, the LD-RBC suspensions are shown to properly capture the experimental data for the apparent viscosity of blood and its cell-free layer (CFL) in tube flow. Taken together, these findings suggest a hierarchical approach in modeling blood flow in the arterial tree, whereby the MS-RBC model should be employed for capillaries and arterioles below 100 microns, the LD-RBC model for arterioles, and the continuum description for
2015-01-01
Background Meningitis is the inflammation of the meninges in response to infection or chemical agents. While aseptic meningitis, most frequently caused by enteroviruses, is usually benign with a self-limiting course, bacterial meningitis remains associated with high morbidity and mortality rates, despite advances in antimicrobial therapy and intensive care. Fast and accurate differential diagnosis is crucial for assertive choice of the appropriate therapeutic approach for each form of meningitis. Methods We used 2D-PAGE and mass spectrometry to identify the cerebrospinal fluid proteome specifically related to the host response to pneumococcal, meningococcal, and enteroviral meningitis. The disease-specific proteome signatures were inspected by pathway analysis. Results Unique cerebrospinal fluid proteome signatures were found to the three aetiological forms of meningitis investigated, and a qualitative predictive model with four protein markers was developed for the differential diagnosis of these diseases. Nevertheless, pathway analysis of the disease-specific proteomes unveiled that Kallikrein-kinin system may play a crucial role in the pathophysiological mechanisms leading to brain damage in bacterial meningitis. Proteins taking part in this cellular process are proposed as putative targets to novel adjunctive therapies. Conclusions Comparative proteomics of cerebrospinal fluid disclosed candidate biomarkers, which were combined in a qualitative and sequential predictive model with potential to improve the differential diagnosis of pneumococcal, meningococcal and enteroviral meningitis. Moreover, we present the first evidence of the possible implication of Kallikrein-kinin system in the pathophysiology of bacterial meningitis. PMID:26040285
Predictive Surface Complexation Modeling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Sverjensky, Dimitri A. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States). Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences
2016-11-29
Surface complexation plays an important role in the equilibria and kinetics of processes controlling the compositions of soilwaters and groundwaters, the fate of contaminants in groundwaters, and the subsurface storage of CO_{2} and nuclear waste. Over the last several decades, many dozens of individual experimental studies have addressed aspects of surface complexation that have contributed to an increased understanding of its role in natural systems. However, there has been no previous attempt to develop a model of surface complexation that can be used to link all the experimental studies in order to place them on a predictive basis. Overall, my research has successfully integrated the results of the work of many experimentalists published over several decades. For the first time in studies of the geochemistry of the mineral-water interface, a practical predictive capability for modeling has become available. The predictive correlations developed in my research now enable extrapolations of experimental studies to provide estimates of surface chemistry for systems not yet studied experimentally and for natural and anthropogenically perturbed systems.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sadegh Maleki
2014-11-01
Full Text Available The study aimed at predicting bending moment resistance plywood of screw (coarse and fine threads joints using regression models. Thickness of the member was 19mm and compared with medium density fiberboard (MDF and particleboard with 18mm thicknesses. Two types of screws including coarse and fine thread drywall screw with nominal diameters of 6, 8 and 10mm and 3.5, 4 and 5 cm length respectively and sheet metal screw with diameters of 8 and 10 and length of 4 cm were used. The results of the study have shown that bending moment resistance of screw was increased by increasing of screws diameter and penetrating depth. Screw Length was found to have a larger influence on bending moment resistance than screw diameter. Bending moment resistance with coarse thread drywall screws was higher than those of fine thread drywall screws. The highest bending moment resistance (71.76 N.m was observed in joints made with coarse screw which were 5 mm in diameter and 28 mm in depth of penetration. The lowest bending moment resistance (12.08 N.m was observed in joints having fine screw with 3.5 mm diameter and 9 mm penetrations. Furthermore, bending moment resistance in plywood was higher than those of medium density fiberboard (MDF and particleboard. Finally, it has been found that the ultimate bending moment resistance of plywood joint can be predicted following formula Wc = 0.189×D0.726×P0.577 for coarse thread drywall screws and Wf = 0.086×D0.942×P0.704 for fine ones according to diameter and penetrating depth. The analysis of variance of the experimental and predicted data showed that the developed models provide a fair approximation of actual experimental measurements.
What do saliency models predict?
Koehler, Kathryn; Guo, Fei; Zhang, Sheng; Eckstein, Miguel P.
2014-01-01
Saliency models have been frequently used to predict eye movements made during image viewing without a specified task (free viewing). Use of a single image set to systematically compare free viewing to other tasks has never been performed. We investigated the effect of task differences on the ability of three models of saliency to predict the performance of humans viewing a novel database of 800 natural images. We introduced a novel task where 100 observers made explicit perceptual judgments about the most salient image region. Other groups of observers performed a free viewing task, saliency search task, or cued object search task. Behavior on the popular free viewing task was not best predicted by standard saliency models. Instead, the models most accurately predicted the explicit saliency selections and eye movements made while performing saliency judgments. Observers' fixations varied similarly across images for the saliency and free viewing tasks, suggesting that these two tasks are related. The variability of observers' eye movements was modulated by the task (lowest for the object search task and greatest for the free viewing and saliency search tasks) as well as the clutter content of the images. Eye movement variability in saliency search and free viewing might be also limited by inherent variation of what observers consider salient. Our results contribute to understanding the tasks and behavioral measures for which saliency models are best suited as predictors of human behavior, the relationship across various perceptual tasks, and the factors contributing to observer variability in fixational eye movements. PMID:24618107
Candidate Prediction Models and Methods
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik
2005-01-01
This document lists candidate prediction models for Work Package 3 (WP3) of the PSO-project called ``Intelligent wind power prediction systems'' (FU4101). The main focus is on the models transforming numerical weather predictions into predictions of power production. The document also outlines...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Oloumi
2015-06-01
Full Text Available This paper provides a detailed comparative study concerning the performance of min-projection strategy (MPS and model predictive control (MPC systems to control the three-phase grid connected converters. To do so, first, the converter is modeled as a switched linear system. Then, the feasibility of the MPS technique is investigated and its stability criterion is derived as a lower limit on the DC link voltage. Next, the fundamental equations of the MPS to control a VSC are obtained in the stationary reference frame. The mathematical analysis reveals that the MPS is independent of the load, grid, filter and converter parameters. This feature is a great advantage of MPS over the MPC approach. However, the latter is a well-known model-based control technique, has already developed for controlling the VSC in the stationary reference frame. To control the grid connected VSC, both MPS and MPC approaches are simulated in the PSCAD/EMTDC environment. Simulation results illustrate that the MPS is functioning well and is less sensitive to grid and filter inductances as well as the DC link voltage level. However, the MPC approach renders slightly a better performance in the steady state conditions.
Melanoma risk prediction models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nikolić Jelena
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Background/Aim. The lack of effective therapy for advanced stages of melanoma emphasizes the importance of preventive measures and screenings of population at risk. Identifying individuals at high risk should allow targeted screenings and follow-up involving those who would benefit most. The aim of this study was to identify most significant factors for melanoma prediction in our population and to create prognostic models for identification and differentiation of individuals at risk. Methods. This case-control study included 697 participants (341 patients and 356 controls that underwent extensive interview and skin examination in order to check risk factors for melanoma. Pairwise univariate statistical comparison was used for the coarse selection of the most significant risk factors. These factors were fed into logistic regression (LR and alternating decision trees (ADT prognostic models that were assessed for their usefulness in identification of patients at risk to develop melanoma. Validation of the LR model was done by Hosmer and Lemeshow test, whereas the ADT was validated by 10-fold cross-validation. The achieved sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and AUC for both models were calculated. The melanoma risk score (MRS based on the outcome of the LR model was presented. Results. The LR model showed that the following risk factors were associated with melanoma: sunbeds (OR = 4.018; 95% CI 1.724- 9.366 for those that sometimes used sunbeds, solar damage of the skin (OR = 8.274; 95% CI 2.661-25.730 for those with severe solar damage, hair color (OR = 3.222; 95% CI 1.984-5.231 for light brown/blond hair, the number of common naevi (over 100 naevi had OR = 3.57; 95% CI 1.427-8.931, the number of dysplastic naevi (from 1 to 10 dysplastic naevi OR was 2.672; 95% CI 1.572-4.540; for more than 10 naevi OR was 6.487; 95%; CI 1.993-21.119, Fitzpatricks phototype and the presence of congenital naevi. Red hair, phototype I and large congenital naevi were
Comparison of Prediction-Error-Modelling Criteria
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Jørgensen, Sten Bay
2007-01-01
Single and multi-step prediction-error-methods based on the maximum likelihood and least squares criteria are compared. The prediction-error methods studied are based on predictions using the Kalman filter and Kalman predictors for a linear discrete-time stochastic state space model, which is a r...
Comparing root architectural models
Schnepf, Andrea; Javaux, Mathieu; Vanderborght, Jan
2017-04-01
Plant roots play an important role in several soil processes (Gregory 2006). Root architecture development determines the sites in soil where roots provide input of carbon and energy and take up water and solutes. However, root architecture is difficult to determine experimentally when grown in opaque soil. Thus, root architectural models have been widely used and been further developed into functional-structural models that are able to simulate the fate of water and solutes in the soil-root system (Dunbabin et al. 2013). Still, a systematic comparison of the different root architectural models is missing. In this work, we focus on discrete root architecture models where roots are described by connected line segments. These models differ (a) in their model concepts, such as the description of distance between branches based on a prescribed distance (inter-nodal distance) or based on a prescribed time interval. Furthermore, these models differ (b) in the implementation of the same concept, such as the time step size, the spatial discretization along the root axes or the way stochasticity of parameters such as root growth direction, growth rate, branch spacing, branching angles are treated. Based on the example of two such different root models, the root growth module of R-SWMS and RootBox, we show the impact of these differences on simulated root architecture and aggregated information computed from this detailed simulation results, taking into account the stochastic nature of those models. References Dunbabin, V.M., Postma, J.A., Schnepf, A., Pagès, L., Javaux, M., Wu, L., Leitner, D., Chen, Y.L., Rengel, Z., Diggle, A.J. Modelling root-soil interactions using three-dimensional models of root growth, architecture and function (2013) Plant and Soil, 372 (1-2), pp. 93 - 124. Gregory (2006) Roots, rhizosphere and soil: the route to a better understanding of soil science? European Journal of Soil Science 57: 2-12.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kyoungwon Jung
2016-08-01
Full Text Available Background: Injury severity scoring systems that quantify and predict trauma outcomes have not been established in Korea. This study was designed to determine the best system for use in the Korean trauma population. Methods: We collected and analyzed the data from trauma patients admitted to our institution from January 2010 to December 2014. Injury Severity Score (ISS, Revised Trauma Score (RTS, and Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS were calculated based on the data from the enrolled patients. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve (AUC for the prediction ability of each scoring system was obtained, and a pairwise comparison of ROC curves was performed. Additionally, the cut-off values were estimated to predict mortality, and the corresponding accuracy, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were obtained. Results: A total of 7,120 trauma patients (6,668 blunt and 452 penetrating injuries were enrolled in this study. The AUCs of ISS, RTS, and TRISS were 0.866, 0.894, and 0.942, respectively, and the prediction ability of the TRISS was significantly better than the others (p < 0.001, respectively. The cut-off value of the TRISS was 0.9082, with a sensitivity of 81.9% and specificity of 92.0%; mortality was predicted with an accuracy of 91.2%; its positive predictive value was the highest at 46.8%. Conclusions: The results of our study were based on the data from one institution and suggest that the TRISS is the best prediction model of trauma outcomes in the current Korean population. Further study is needed with more data from multiple centers in Korea.
Comparing predicted estrogen concentrations with measurements in US waters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kostich, Mitch; Flick, Robert; Martinson, John
2013-01-01
The range of exposure rates to the steroidal estrogens estrone (E1), beta-estradiol (E2), estriol (E3), and ethinyl estradiol (EE2) in the aquatic environment was investigated by modeling estrogen introduction via municipal wastewater from sewage plants across the US. Model predictions were compared to published measured concentrations. Predictions were congruent with most of the measurements, but a few measurements of E2 and EE2 exceed those that would be expected from the model, despite very conservative model assumptions of no degradation or in-stream dilution. Although some extreme measurements for EE2 may reflect analytical artifacts, remaining data suggest concentrations of E2 and EE2 may reach twice the 99th percentile predicted from the model. The model and bulk of the measurement data both suggest that cumulative exposure rates to humans are consistently low relative to effect levels, but also suggest that fish exposures to E1, E2, and EE2 sometimes substantially exceed chronic no-effect levels. -- Highlights: •Conservatively modeled steroidal estrogen concentrations in ambient water. •Found reasonable agreement between model and published measurements. •Model and measurements agree that risks to humans are remote. •Model and measurements agree significant questions remain about risk to fish. •Need better understanding of temporal variations and their impact on fish. -- Our model and published measurements for estrogens suggest aquatic exposure rates for humans are below potential effect levels, but fish exposure sometimes exceeds published no-effect levels
Chakraborty, Prithviraj; Parcha, Versha; Chakraborty, Debarupa D; Ghosh, Amitava
2016-01-01
Buccoadhesive wafer dosage form containing Loratadine is formulated utilizing Formulation by Design (FbD) approach incorporating sodium alginate and lactose monohydrate as independent variable employing solvent casting method. The wafers were statistically optimized using Response Surface Methodology (RSM) and Artificial Neural Network algorithm (ANN) for predicting physicochemical and physico-mechanical properties of the wafers as responses. Morphologically wafers were tested using SEM. Quick disintegration of the samples was examined employing Optical Contact Angle (OCA). The comparison of the predictability of RSM and ANN showed a high prognostic capacity of RSM model over ANN model in forecasting mechanical and physicochemical properties of the wafers. The in vivo assessment of the optimized buccoadhesive wafer exhibits marked increase in bioavailability justifying the administration of Loratadine through buccal route, bypassing hepatic first pass metabolism.
Comparing multilabel classification methods for provisional biopharmaceutics class prediction.
Newby, Danielle; Freitas, Alex A; Ghafourian, Taravat
2015-01-05
The biopharmaceutical classification system (BCS) is now well established and utilized for the development and biowaivers of immediate oral dosage forms. The prediction of BCS class can be carried out using multilabel classification. Unlike single label classification, multilabel classification methods predict more than one class label at the same time. This paper compares two multilabel methods, binary relevance and classifier chain, for provisional BCS class prediction. Large data sets of permeability and solubility of drug and drug-like compounds were obtained from the literature and were used to build models using decision trees. The separate permeability and solubility models were validated, and a BCS validation set of 127 compounds where both permeability and solubility were known was used to compare the two aforementioned multilabel classification methods for provisional BCS class prediction. Overall, the results indicate that the classifier chain method, which takes into account label interactions, performed better compared to the binary relevance method. This work offers a comparison of multilabel methods and shows the potential of the classifier chain multilabel method for improved biological property predictions for use in drug discovery and development.
Comparing models of Red Knot population dynamics
McGowan, Conor P.
2015-01-01
Predictive population modeling contributes to our basic scientific understanding of population dynamics, but can also inform management decisions by evaluating alternative actions in virtual environments. Quantitative models mathematically reflect scientific hypotheses about how a system functions. In Delaware Bay, mid-Atlantic Coast, USA, to more effectively manage horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) harvests and protect Red Knot (Calidris canutus rufa) populations, models are used to compare harvest actions and predict the impacts on crab and knot populations. Management has been chiefly driven by the core hypothesis that horseshoe crab egg abundance governs the survival and reproduction of migrating Red Knots that stopover in the Bay during spring migration. However, recently, hypotheses proposing that knot dynamics are governed by cyclical lemming dynamics garnered some support in data analyses. In this paper, I present alternative models of Red Knot population dynamics to reflect alternative hypotheses. Using 2 models with different lemming population cycle lengths and 2 models with different horseshoe crab effects, I project the knot population into the future under environmental stochasticity and parametric uncertainty with each model. I then compare each model's predictions to 10 yr of population monitoring from Delaware Bay. Using Bayes' theorem and model weight updating, models can accrue weight or support for one or another hypothesis of population dynamics. With 4 models of Red Knot population dynamics and only 10 yr of data, no hypothesis clearly predicted population count data better than another. The collapsed lemming cycle model performed best, accruing ~35% of the model weight, followed closely by the horseshoe crab egg abundance model, which accrued ~30% of the weight. The models that predicted no decline or stable populations (i.e. the 4-yr lemming cycle model and the weak horseshoe crab effect model) were the most weakly supported.
Bootstrap prediction and Bayesian prediction under misspecified models
Fushiki, Tadayoshi
2005-01-01
We consider a statistical prediction problem under misspecified models. In a sense, Bayesian prediction is an optimal prediction method when an assumed model is true. Bootstrap prediction is obtained by applying Breiman's `bagging' method to a plug-in prediction. Bootstrap prediction can be considered to be an approximation to the Bayesian prediction under the assumption that the model is true. However, in applications, there are frequently deviations from the assumed model. In this paper, bo...
Posterior Predictive Model Checking in Bayesian Networks
Crawford, Aaron
2014-01-01
This simulation study compared the utility of various discrepancy measures within a posterior predictive model checking (PPMC) framework for detecting different types of data-model misfit in multidimensional Bayesian network (BN) models. The investigated conditions were motivated by an applied research program utilizing an operational complex…
Prediction models in complex terrain
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Marti, I.; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik
2001-01-01
The objective of the work is to investigatethe performance of HIRLAM in complex terrain when used as input to energy production forecasting models, and to develop a statistical model to adapt HIRLAM prediction to the wind farm. The features of the terrain, specially the topography, influence...... the performance of HIRLAM in particular with respect to wind predictions. To estimate the performance of the model two spatial resolutions (0,5 Deg. and 0.2 Deg.) and different sets of HIRLAM variables were used to predict wind speed and energy production. The predictions of energy production for the wind farms...... are calculated using on-line measurements of power production as well as HIRLAM predictions as input thus taking advantage of the auto-correlation, which is present in the power production for shorter pediction horizons. Statistical models are used to discribe the relationship between observed energy production...
MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL FUNDAMENTALS
African Journals Online (AJOL)
2012-07-02
Jul 2, 2012 ... Linear MPC. 1. Uses linear model: ˙x = Ax + Bu. 2. Quadratic cost function: F = xT Qx + uT Ru. 3. Linear constraints: Hx + Gu < 0. 4. Quadratic program. Nonlinear MPC. 1. Nonlinear model: ˙x = f(x, u). 2. Cost function can be nonquadratic: F = (x, u). 3. Nonlinear constraints: h(x, u) < 0. 4. Nonlinear program.
Melanoma Risk Prediction Models
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing melanoma cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
Predictive models of moth development
Degree-day models link ambient temperature to insect life-stages, making such models valuable tools in integrated pest management. These models increase management efficacy by predicting pest phenology. In Wisconsin, the top insect pest of cranberry production is the cranberry fruitworm, Acrobasis v...
Predictive Models and Computational Embryology
EPA’s ‘virtual embryo’ project is building an integrative systems biology framework for predictive models of developmental toxicity. One schema involves a knowledge-driven adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework utilizing information from public databases, standardized ontologies...
Comparing flood loss models of different complexity
Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Vogel, Kristin; Riggelsen, Carsten; Scherbaum, Frank; Merz, Bruno
2013-04-01
Any deliberation on flood risk requires the consideration of potential flood losses. In particular, reliable flood loss models are needed to evaluate cost-effectiveness of mitigation measures, to assess vulnerability, for comparative risk analysis and financial appraisal during and after floods. In recent years, considerable improvements have been made both concerning the data basis and the methodological approaches used for the development of flood loss models. Despite of that, flood loss models remain an important source of uncertainty. Likewise the temporal and spatial transferability of flood loss models is still limited. This contribution investigates the predictive capability of different flood loss models in a split sample cross regional validation approach. For this purpose, flood loss models of different complexity, i.e. based on different numbers of explaining variables, are learned from a set of damage records that was obtained from a survey after the Elbe flood in 2002. The validation of model predictions is carried out for different flood events in the Elbe and Danube river basins in 2002, 2005 and 2006 for which damage records are available from surveys after the flood events. The models investigated are a stage-damage model, the rule based model FLEMOps+r as well as novel model approaches which are derived using data mining techniques of regression trees and Bayesian networks. The Bayesian network approach to flood loss modelling provides attractive additional information concerning the probability distribution of both model predictions and explaining variables.
An Operational Model for the Prediction of Jet Blast
2012-01-09
This paper presents an operational model for the prediction of jet blast. The model was : developed based upon three modules including a jet exhaust model, jet centerline decay : model and aircraft motion model. The final analysis was compared with d...
Predictions models with neural nets
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vladimír Konečný
2008-01-01
Full Text Available The contribution is oriented to basic problem trends solution of economic pointers, using neural networks. Problems include choice of the suitable model and consequently configuration of neural nets, choice computational function of neurons and the way prediction learning. The contribution contains two basic models that use structure of multilayer neural nets and way of determination their configuration. It is postulate a simple rule for teaching period of neural net, to get most credible prediction.Experiments are executed with really data evolution of exchange rate Kč/Euro. The main reason of choice this time series is their availability for sufficient long period. In carry out of experiments the both given basic kind of prediction models with most frequent use functions of neurons are verified. Achieve prediction results are presented as in numerical and so in graphical forms.
Return Predictability, Model Uncertainty, and Robust Investment
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lukas, Manuel
Stock return predictability is subject to great uncertainty. In this paper we use the model confidence set approach to quantify uncertainty about expected utility from investment, accounting for potential return predictability. For monthly US data and six representative return prediction models, we...... find that confidence sets are very wide, change significantly with the predictor variables, and frequently include expected utilities for which the investor prefers not to invest. The latter motivates a robust investment strategy maximizing the minimal element of the confidence set. The robust investor...... allocates a much lower share of wealth to stocks compared to a standard investor....
Yu, Haiying; Kühne, Ralph; Ebert, Ralf-Uwe; Schüürmann, Gerrit
2010-11-22
For 1143 organic compounds comprising 580 oxygen acids and 563 nitrogen bases that cover more than 17 orders of experimental pK(a) (from -5.00 to 12.23), the pK(a) prediction performances of ACD, SPARC, and two calibrations of a semiempirical quantum chemical (QC) AM1 approach have been analyzed. The overall root-mean-square errors (rms) for the acids are 0.41, 0.58 (0.42 without ortho-substituted phenols with intramolecular H-bonding), and 0.55 and for the bases are 0.65, 0.70, 1.17, and 1.27 for ACD, SPARC, and both QC methods, respectively. Method-specific performances are discussed in detail for six acid subsets (phenols and aromatic and aliphatic carboxylic acids with different substitution patterns) and nine base subsets (anilines, primary, secondary and tertiary amines, meta/para-substituted and ortho-substituted pyridines, pyrimidines, imidazoles, and quinolines). The results demonstrate an overall better performance for acids than for bases but also a substantial variation across subsets. For the overall best-performing ACD, rms ranges from 0.12 to 1.11 and 0.40 to 1.21 pK(a) units for the acid and base subsets, respectively. With regard to the squared correlation coefficient r², the results are 0.86 to 0.96 (acids) and 0.79 to 0.95 (bases) for ACD, 0.77 to 0.95 (acids) and 0.85 to 0.97 (bases) for SPARC, and 0.64 to 0.87 (acids) and 0.43 to 0.83 (bases) for the QC methods, respectively. Attention is paid to structural and method-specific causes for observed pitfalls. The significant subset dependence of the prediction performances suggests a consensus modeling approach.
Cai, Jun; Wang, Kuaishe; Han, Yingying
2016-03-01
True stress and true strain values obtained from isothermal compression tests over a wide temperature range from 1,073 to 1,323 K and a strain rate range from 0.001 to 1 s-1 were employed to establish the constitutive equations based on Johnson Cook, modified Zerilli-Armstrong (ZA) and strain-compensated Arrhenius-type models, respectively, to predict the high-temperature flow behavior of Ti-6Al-4V alloy in α + β phase. Furthermore, a comparative study has been made on the capability of the three models to represent the elevated temperature flow behavior of Ti-6Al-4V alloy. Suitability of the three models was evaluated by comparing both the correlation coefficient R and the average absolute relative error (AARE). The results showed that the Johnson Cook model is inadequate to provide good description of flow behavior of Ti-6Al-4V alloy in α + β phase domain, while the predicted values of modified ZA model and the strain-compensated Arrhenius-type model could agree well with the experimental values except under some deformation conditions. Meanwhile, the modified ZA model could track the deformation behavior more accurately than other model throughout the entire temperature and strain rate range.
Comparison of two ordinal prediction models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kattan, Michael W; Gerds, Thomas A
2015-01-01
system (i.e. old or new), such as the level of evidence for one or more factors included in the system or the general opinions of expert clinicians. However, given the major objective of estimating prognosis on an ordinal scale, we argue that the rival staging system candidates should be compared...... on their ability to predict outcome. We sought to outline an algorithm that would compare two rival ordinal systems on their predictive ability. RESULTS: We devised an algorithm based largely on the concordance index, which is appropriate for comparing two models in their ability to rank observations. We...... demonstrate our algorithm with a prostate cancer staging system example. CONCLUSION: We have provided an algorithm for selecting the preferred staging system based on prognostic accuracy. It appears to be useful for the purpose of selecting between two ordinal prediction models....
Model complexity control for hydrologic prediction
Schoups, G.; van de Giesen, N. C.; Savenije, H. H. G.
2008-12-01
A common concern in hydrologic modeling is overparameterization of complex models given limited and noisy data. This leads to problems of parameter nonuniqueness and equifinality, which may negatively affect prediction uncertainties. A systematic way of controlling model complexity is therefore needed. We compare three model complexity control methods for hydrologic prediction, namely, cross validation (CV), Akaike's information criterion (AIC), and structural risk minimization (SRM). Results show that simulation of water flow using non-physically-based models (polynomials in this case) leads to increasingly better calibration fits as the model complexity (polynomial order) increases. However, prediction uncertainty worsens for complex non-physically-based models because of overfitting of noisy data. Incorporation of physically based constraints into the model (e.g., storage-discharge relationship) effectively bounds prediction uncertainty, even as the number of parameters increases. The conclusion is that overparameterization and equifinality do not lead to a continued increase in prediction uncertainty, as long as models are constrained by such physical principles. Complexity control of hydrologic models reduces parameter equifinality and identifies the simplest model that adequately explains the data, thereby providing a means of hydrologic generalization and classification. SRM is a promising technique for this purpose, as it (1) provides analytic upper bounds on prediction uncertainty, hence avoiding the computational burden of CV, and (2) extends the applicability of classic methods such as AIC to finite data. The main hurdle in applying SRM is the need for an a priori estimation of the complexity of the hydrologic model, as measured by its Vapnik-Chernovenkis (VC) dimension. Further research is needed in this area.
Accuracy assessment of landslide prediction models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Othman, A N; Mohd, W M N W; Noraini, S
2014-01-01
The increasing population and expansion of settlements over hilly areas has greatly increased the impact of natural disasters such as landslide. Therefore, it is important to developed models which could accurately predict landslide hazard zones. Over the years, various techniques and models have been developed to predict landslide hazard zones. The aim of this paper is to access the accuracy of landslide prediction models developed by the authors. The methodology involved the selection of study area, data acquisition, data processing and model development and also data analysis. The development of these models are based on nine different landslide inducing parameters i.e. slope, land use, lithology, soil properties, geomorphology, flow accumulation, aspect, proximity to river and proximity to road. Rank sum, rating, pairwise comparison and AHP techniques are used to determine the weights for each of the parameters used. Four (4) different models which consider different parameter combinations are developed by the authors. Results obtained are compared to landslide history and accuracies for Model 1, Model 2, Model 3 and Model 4 are 66.7, 66.7%, 60% and 22.9% respectively. From the results, rank sum, rating and pairwise comparison can be useful techniques to predict landslide hazard zones
Mirmehrabi, Mahmoud; Rohani, Sohrab; Perry, Luisa
2006-04-01
A new activity coefficient model was developed from excess Gibbs free energy in the form G(ex) = cA(a) x(1)(b)...x(n)(b). The constants of the proposed model were considered to be function of solute and solvent dielectric constants, Hildebrand solubility parameters and specific volumes of solute and solvent molecules. The proposed model obeys the Gibbs-Duhem condition for activity coefficient models. To generalize the model and make it as a purely predictive model without any adjustable parameters, its constants were found using the experimental activity coefficient and physical properties of 20 vapor-liquid systems. The predictive capability of the proposed model was tested by calculating the activity coefficients of 41 binary vapor-liquid equilibrium systems and showed good agreement with the experimental data in comparison with two other predictive models, the UNIFAC and Hildebrand models. The only data used for the prediction of activity coefficients, were dielectric constants, Hildebrand solubility parameters, and specific volumes of the solute and solvent molecules. Furthermore, the proposed model was used to predict the activity coefficient of an organic compound, stearic acid, whose physical properties were available in methanol and 2-butanone. The predicted activity coefficient along with the thermal properties of the stearic acid were used to calculate the solubility of stearic acid in these two solvents and resulted in a better agreement with the experimental data compared to the UNIFAC and Hildebrand predictive models.
A comprehensive comparison of comparative RNA structure prediction approaches
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gardner, P. P.; Giegerich, R.
2004-01-01
-finding and multiple-sequence-alignment algorithms. Results Here we evaluate a number of RNA folding algorithms using reliable RNA data-sets and compare their relative performance. Conclusions We conclude that comparative data can enhance structure prediction but structure-prediction-algorithms vary widely in terms......Background An increasing number of researchers have released novel RNA structure analysis and prediction algorithms for comparative approaches to structure prediction. Yet, independent benchmarking of these algorithms is rarely performed as is now common practice for protein-folding, gene...
Are animal models predictive for humans?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Greek Ray
2009-01-01
Full Text Available Abstract It is one of the central aims of the philosophy of science to elucidate the meanings of scientific terms and also to think critically about their application. The focus of this essay is the scientific term predict and whether there is credible evidence that animal models, especially in toxicology and pathophysiology, can be used to predict human outcomes. Whether animals can be used to predict human response to drugs and other chemicals is apparently a contentious issue. However, when one empirically analyzes animal models using scientific tools they fall far short of being able to predict human responses. This is not surprising considering what we have learned from fields such evolutionary and developmental biology, gene regulation and expression, epigenetics, complexity theory, and comparative genomics.
A predictive model for dimensional errors in fused deposition modeling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Stolfi, A.
2015-01-01
values of L (0.254 mm, 0.330 mm) was produced by comparing predicted values with external face-to-face measurements. After removing outliers, the results show that the developed two-parameter model can serve as tool for modeling the FDM dimensional behavior in a wide range of deposition angles....
Tollenaar, N.; van der Heijden, P.G.M.
2012-01-01
Using criminal population conviction histories of recent offenders, prediction mod els are developed that predict three types of criminal recidivism: general recidivism, violent recidivism and sexual recidivism. The research question is whether prediction techniques from modern statistics, data mining and machine learning provide an improvement in predictive performance over classical statistical methods, namely logistic regression and linear discrim inant analysis. These models are compared ...
A revised prediction model for natural conception.
Bensdorp, Alexandra J; van der Steeg, Jan Willem; Steures, Pieternel; Habbema, J Dik F; Hompes, Peter G A; Bossuyt, Patrick M M; van der Veen, Fulco; Mol, Ben W J; Eijkemans, Marinus J C
2017-06-01
One of the aims in reproductive medicine is to differentiate between couples that have favourable chances of conceiving naturally and those that do not. Since the development of the prediction model of Hunault, characteristics of the subfertile population have changed. The objective of this analysis was to assess whether additional predictors can refine the Hunault model and extend its applicability. Consecutive subfertile couples with unexplained and mild male subfertility presenting in fertility clinics were asked to participate in a prospective cohort study. We constructed a multivariable prediction model with the predictors from the Hunault model and new potential predictors. The primary outcome, natural conception leading to an ongoing pregnancy, was observed in 1053 women of the 5184 included couples (20%). All predictors of the Hunault model were selected into the revised model plus an additional seven (woman's body mass index, cycle length, basal FSH levels, tubal status,history of previous pregnancies in the current relationship (ongoing pregnancies after natural conception, fertility treatment or miscarriages), semen volume, and semen morphology. Predictions from the revised model seem to concur better with observed pregnancy rates compared with the Hunault model; c-statistic of 0.71 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.73) compared with 0.59 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.61). Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
PREDICTIVE CAPACITY OF ARCH FAMILY MODELS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Raphael Silveira Amaro
2016-03-01
Full Text Available In the last decades, a remarkable number of models, variants from the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic family, have been developed and empirically tested, making extremely complex the process of choosing a particular model. This research aim to compare the predictive capacity, using the Model Confidence Set procedure, than five conditional heteroskedasticity models, considering eight different statistical probability distributions. The financial series which were used refers to the log-return series of the Bovespa index and the Dow Jones Industrial Index in the period between 27 October 2008 and 30 December 2014. The empirical evidences showed that, in general, competing models have a great homogeneity to make predictions, either for a stock market of a developed country or for a stock market of a developing country. An equivalent result can be inferred for the statistical probability distributions that were used.
Struijs J; Peijnenburg WJGM; ECO
2003-01-01
The multimedia environmental fate model SimpleBox is applied to compute steady-state concentration ratios with the aim to harmonize environmetal quality objectives of air, water, sediment and soil. In 1995 the Dutch Health Council recommended validation of the model. Several activities were
A predictive model for dimensional errors in fused deposition modeling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Stolfi, A.
2015-01-01
This work concerns the effect of deposition angle (a) and layer thickness (L) on the dimensional performance of FDM parts using a predictive model based on the geometrical description of the FDM filament profile. An experimental validation over the whole a range from 0° to 177° at 3° steps and two...... values of L (0.254 mm, 0.330 mm) was produced by comparing predicted values with external face-to-face measurements. After removing outliers, the results show that the developed two-parameter model can serve as tool for modeling the FDM dimensional behavior in a wide range of deposition angles....
Link Prediction via Sparse Gaussian Graphical Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Liangliang Zhang
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Link prediction is an important task in complex network analysis. Traditional link prediction methods are limited by network topology and lack of node property information, which makes predicting links challenging. In this study, we address link prediction using a sparse Gaussian graphical model and demonstrate its theoretical and practical effectiveness. In theory, link prediction is executed by estimating the inverse covariance matrix of samples to overcome information limits. The proposed method was evaluated with four small and four large real-world datasets. The experimental results show that the area under the curve (AUC value obtained by the proposed method improved by an average of 3% and 12.5% compared to 13 mainstream similarity methods, respectively. This method outperforms the baseline method, and the prediction accuracy is superior to mainstream methods when using only 80% of the training set. The method also provides significantly higher AUC values when using only 60% in Dolphin and Taro datasets. Furthermore, the error rate of the proposed method demonstrates superior performance with all datasets compared to mainstream methods.
Krikke, M; Hoogeveen, R C; Hoepelman, A I M; Visseren, F L J; Arends, J E
2016-04-01
The aim of the study was to compare the predictions of five popular cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction models, namely the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) model, the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) coronary heart disease (FHS-CHD) and general CVD (FHS-CVD) models, the American Heart Association (AHA) atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score (ASCVD) model and the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation for the Netherlands (SCORE-NL) model. A cross-sectional design was used to compare the cumulative CVD risk predictions of the models. Furthermore, the predictions of the general CVD models were compared with those of the HIV-specific D:A:D model using three categories ( 20%) to categorize the risk and to determine the degree to which patients were categorized similarly or in a higher/lower category. A total of 997 HIV-infected patients were included in the study: 81% were male and they had a median age of 46 [interquartile range (IQR) 40-52] years, a known duration of HIV infection of 6.8 (IQR 3.7-10.9) years, and a median time on ART of 6.4 (IQR 3.0-11.5) years. The D:A:D, ASCVD and SCORE-NL models gave a lower cumulative CVD risk, compared with that of the FHS-CVD and FHS-CHD models. Comparing the general CVD models with the D:A:D model, the FHS-CVD and FHS-CHD models only classified 65% and 79% of patients, respectively, in the same category as did the D:A:D model. However, for the ASCVD and SCORE-NL models, this percentage was 89% and 87%, respectively. Furthermore, FHS-CVD and FHS-CHD attributed a higher CVD risk to 33% and 16% of patients, respectively, while this percentage was D:A:D, ASCVD and SCORE-NL models. This could have consequences regarding overtreatment, drug-related adverse events and drug-drug interactions. © 2015 British HIV Association.
Intertidal beach slope predictions compared to field data
Madsen, A.J.; Plant, N.G.
2001-01-01
This paper presents a test of a very simple model for predicting beach slope changes. The model assumes that these changes are a function of both the incident wave conditions and the beach slope itself. Following other studies, we hypothesized that the beach slope evolves towards an equilibrium
Assessing predictive uncertainty in comparative toxicity potentials of triazoles.
Golsteijn, Laura; Iqbal, M Sarfraz; Cassani, Stefano; Hendriks, Harrie W M; Kovarich, Simona; Papa, Ester; Rorije, Emiel; Sahlin, Ullrika; Huijbregts, Mark A J
2014-02-01
Comparative toxicity potentials (CTPs) quantify the potential ecotoxicological impacts of chemicals per unit of emission. They are the product of a substance's environmental fate, exposure, and hazardous concentration. When empirical data are lacking, substance properties can be predicted. The goal of the present study was to assess the influence of predictive uncertainty in substance property predictions on the CTPs of triazoles. Physicochemical and toxic properties were predicted with quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs), and uncertainty in the predictions was quantified with use of the data underlying the QSARs. Degradation half-lives were based on a probability distribution representing experimental half-lives of triazoles. Uncertainty related to the species' sample size that was present in the prediction of the hazardous aquatic concentration was also included. All parameter uncertainties were treated as probability distributions, and propagated by Monte Carlo simulations. The 90% confidence interval of the CTPs typically spanned nearly 4 orders of magnitude. The CTP uncertainty was mainly determined by uncertainty in soil sorption and soil degradation rates, together with the small number of species sampled. In contrast, uncertainty in species-specific toxicity predictions contributed relatively little. The findings imply that the reliability of CTP predictions for the chemicals studied can be improved particularly by including experimental data for soil sorption and soil degradation, and by developing toxicity QSARs for more species. © 2013 SETAC.
Comparative Studies of Population Synthesis Models in the ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Comparative Studies of Population Synthesis Models in the Framework of Modified Strömgren Filters ... The study conveys a good agreement of GALEV models with modified Strömgren colours but with poor UV model predictions and observed globular cluster data, while the spectroscopic models perform badly because of ...
Verduijn, Marion; Sacchi, Lucia; Peek, Niels; Bellazzi, Riccardo; de Jonge, Evert; de Mol, Bas A. J. M.
2007-01-01
OBJECTIVES: To compare two temporal abstraction procedures for the extraction of meta features from monitoring data. Feature extraction prior to predictive modeling is a common strategy in prediction from temporal data. A fundamental dilemma in this strategy, however, is the extent to which the
Comparative analyses of genetic risk prediction methods reveal ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Home; Journals; Journal of Genetics; Volume 94; Issue 1. Comparative analyses of genetic risk prediction methods reveal extreme diversity of genetic predisposition to nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) among ethnic populations of India. Ankita Chatterjee Analabha Basu Abhijit Chowdhury Kausik Das Neeta ...
Comparative analyses of genetic risk prediction methods reveal ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
2015-03-12
Mar 12, 2015 ... where it is related to modern lifestyle with additional com- plication due to rising incidence of type 2 diabetes melli- tus (DM) and obesity (Angulo and ..... is rapidly becoming a health burden in western and develop- ing countries. In this study we defined a model of disease risk score prediction for different ...
Predictive capabilities of various constitutive models for arterial tissue.
Schroeder, Florian; Polzer, Stanislav; Slažanský, Martin; Man, Vojtěch; Skácel, Pavel
2018-02-01
Aim of this study is to validate some constitutive models by assessing their capabilities in describing and predicting uniaxial and biaxial behavior of porcine aortic tissue. 14 samples from porcine aortas were used to perform 2 uniaxial and 5 biaxial tensile tests. Transversal strains were furthermore stored for uniaxial data. The experimental data were fitted by four constitutive models: Holzapfel-Gasser-Ogden model (HGO), model based on generalized structure tensor (GST), Four-Fiber-Family model (FFF) and Microfiber model. Fitting was performed to uniaxial and biaxial data sets separately and descriptive capabilities of the models were compared. Their predictive capabilities were assessed in two ways. Firstly each model was fitted to biaxial data and its accuracy (in term of R 2 and NRMSE) in prediction of both uniaxial responses was evaluated. Then this procedure was performed conversely: each model was fitted to both uniaxial tests and its accuracy in prediction of 5 biaxial responses was observed. Descriptive capabilities of all models were excellent. In predicting uniaxial response from biaxial data, microfiber model was the most accurate while the other models showed also reasonable accuracy. Microfiber and FFF models were capable to reasonably predict biaxial responses from uniaxial data while HGO and GST models failed completely in this task. HGO and GST models are not capable to predict biaxial arterial wall behavior while FFF model is the most robust of the investigated constitutive models. Knowledge of transversal strains in uniaxial tests improves robustness of constitutive models. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Iowa calibration of MEPDG performance prediction models.
2013-06-01
This study aims to improve the accuracy of AASHTO Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) pavement : performance predictions for Iowa pavement systems through local calibration of MEPDG prediction models. A total of 130 : representative p...
Model predictive control of a 3-DOF helicopter system using ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
... by simulation, and its performance is compared with that achieved by linear model predictive control (LMPC). Keywords: nonlinear systems, helicopter dynamics, MIMO systems, model predictive control, successive linearization. International Journal of Engineering, Science and Technology, Vol. 2, No. 10, 2010, pp. 9-19 ...
Model complexity control for hydrologic prediction
Schoups, G.; Van de Giesen, N.C.; Savenije, H.H.G.
2008-01-01
A common concern in hydrologic modeling is overparameterization of complex models given limited and noisy data. This leads to problems of parameter nonuniqueness and equifinality, which may negatively affect prediction uncertainties. A systematic way of controlling model complexity is therefore
Staying Power of Churn Prediction Models
Risselada, Hans; Verhoef, Peter C.; Bijmolt, Tammo H. A.
In this paper, we study the staying power of various churn prediction models. Staying power is defined as the predictive performance of a model in a number of periods after the estimation period. We examine two methods, logit models and classification trees, both with and without applying a bagging
Ouwerkerk, Wouter; Voors, Adriaan A.; Zwinderman, Aeilko H.
2014-01-01
The present paper systematically reviews and compares existing prediction models in order to establish the strongest variables, models, and model characteristics in patients with heart failure predicting outcome. To improve decision making accurately predicting mortality and heart-failure
Predictive Modeling by the Cerebellum Improves Proprioception
Bhanpuri, Nasir H.; Okamura, Allison M.
2013-01-01
Because sensation is delayed, real-time movement control requires not just sensing, but also predicting limb position, a function hypothesized for the cerebellum. Such cerebellar predictions could contribute to perception of limb position (i.e., proprioception), particularly when a person actively moves the limb. Here we show that human cerebellar patients have proprioceptive deficits compared with controls during active movement, but not when the arm is moved passively. Furthermore, when healthy subjects move in a force field with unpredictable dynamics, they have active proprioceptive deficits similar to cerebellar patients. Therefore, muscle activity alone is likely insufficient to enhance proprioception and predictability (i.e., an internal model of the body and environment) is important for active movement to benefit proprioception. We conclude that cerebellar patients have an active proprioceptive deficit consistent with disrupted movement prediction rather than an inability to generally enhance peripheral proprioceptive signals during action and suggest that active proprioceptive deficits should be considered a fundamental cerebellar impairment of clinical importance. PMID:24005283
Evaluating predictive models of software quality
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ciaschini, V; Canaparo, M; Ronchieri, E; Salomoni, D
2014-01-01
Applications from High Energy Physics scientific community are constantly growing and implemented by a large number of developers. This implies a strong churn on the code and an associated risk of faults, which is unavoidable as long as the software undergoes active evolution. However, the necessities of production systems run counter to this. Stability and predictability are of paramount importance; in addition, a short turn-around time for the defect discovery-correction-deployment cycle is required. A way to reconcile these opposite foci is to use a software quality model to obtain an approximation of the risk before releasing a program to only deliver software with a risk lower than an agreed threshold. In this article we evaluated two quality predictive models to identify the operational risk and the quality of some software products. We applied these models to the development history of several EMI packages with intent to discover the risk factor of each product and compare it with its real history. We attempted to determine if the models reasonably maps reality for the applications under evaluation, and finally we concluded suggesting directions for further studies.
Harrison, D A; Prabhu, G; Grieve, R; Harvey, S E; Sadique, M Z; Gomes, M; Griggs, K A; Walmsley, E; Smith, M; Yeoman, P; Lecky, F E; Hutchinson, P J A; Menon, D K; Rowan, K M
2013-06-01
To validate risk prediction models for acute traumatic brain injury (TBI) and to use the best model to evaluate the optimum location and comparative costs of neurocritical care in the NHS. Cohort study. Sixty-seven adult critical care units. Adult patients admitted to critical care following actual/suspected TBI with a Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score of traffic accidents (RTAs) (33%), falls (47%) and assault (12%). Patients were predominantly young (mean age 45 years overall) and male (76% overall). Six-month mortality was 22% for RTAs, 32% for falls and 17% for assault. Of survivors at 6 months with a known GOSE category, 44% had severe disability, 30% moderate disability and 26% made a good recovery. Overall, 61% of patients with known outcome had an unfavourable outcome (death or severe disability) at 6 months. Between 35% and 70% of survivors reported problems across the five domains of the EQ-5D-3L. Of the 10 risk models selected for validation, the best discrimination overall was from the International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in TBI Lab model (IMPACT) (c-index 0.779 for mortality, 0.713 for unfavourable outcome). The model was well calibrated for 6-month mortality but substantially underpredicted the risk of unfavourable outcome at 6 months. Baseline patient characteristics were similar between dedicated neurocritical care units and combined neuro/general critical care units. In lifetime cost-effectiveness analysis, dedicated neurocritical care units had higher mean lifetime quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) at small additional mean costs with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £14,000 per QALY and incremental net monetary benefit (INB) of £17,000. The cost-effectiveness acceptability curve suggested that the probability that dedicated compared with combined neurocritical care units are cost-effective is around 60%. There were substantial differences in case mix between the 'early' (within 18 hours of
Calibration of PMIS pavement performance prediction models.
2012-02-01
Improve the accuracy of TxDOTs existing pavement performance prediction models through calibrating these models using actual field data obtained from the Pavement Management Information System (PMIS). : Ensure logical performance superiority patte...
Predictive Model Assessment for Count Data
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Czado, Claudia; Gneiting, Tilmann; Held, Leonhard
2007-01-01
.... In case studies, we critique count regression models for patent data, and assess the predictive performance of Bayesian age-period-cohort models for larynx cancer counts in Germany. Key words: Calibration...
Modeling and Prediction Using Stochastic Differential Equations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Juhl, Rune; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Jørgensen, John Bagterp
2016-01-01
deterministic and can predict the future perfectly. A more realistic approach would be to allow for randomness in the model due to e.g., the model be too simple or errors in input. We describe a modeling and prediction setup which better reflects reality and suggests stochastic differential equations (SDEs......) for modeling and forecasting. It is argued that this gives models and predictions which better reflect reality. The SDE approach also offers a more adequate framework for modeling and a number of efficient tools for model building. A software package (CTSM-R) for SDE-based modeling is briefly described....... that describes the variation between subjects. The ODE setup implies that the variation for a single subject is described by a single parameter (or vector), namely the variance (covariance) of the residuals. Furthermore the prediction of the states is given as the solution to the ODEs and hence assumed...
Scaling and predictability in stock markets: a comparative study.
Zhang, Huishu; Wei, Jianrong; Huang, Jiping
2014-01-01
Most people who invest in stock markets want to be rich, thus, many technical methods have been created to beat the market. If one knows the predictability of the price series in different markets, it would be easier for him/her to make the technical analysis, at least to some extent. Here we use one of the most basic sold-and-bought trading strategies to establish the profit landscape, and then calculate the parameters to characterize the strength of predictability. According to the analysis of scaling of the profit landscape, we find that the Chinese individual stocks are harder to predict than US ones, and the individual stocks are harder to predict than indexes in both Chinese stock market and US stock market. Since the Chinese (US) stock market is a representative of emerging (developed) markets, our comparative study on the markets of these two countries is of potential value not only for conducting technical analysis, but also for understanding physical mechanisms of different kinds of markets in terms of scaling.
A model to predict the beginning of the pollen season
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Toldam-Andersen, Torben Bo
1991-01-01
In order to predict the beginning of the pollen season, a model comprising the Utah phenoclirnatography Chill Unit (CU) and ASYMCUR-Growing Degree Hour (GDH) submodels were used to predict the first bloom in Alms, Ulttirrs and Berirln. The model relates environmental temperatures to rest completion...... and bud development. As phenologic parameter 14 years of pollen counts were used. The observed datcs for the beginning of the pollen seasons were defined from the pollen counts and compared with the model prediction. The CU and GDH submodels were used as: 1. A fixed day model, using only the GDH model...... for fruit trees are generally applicable, and give a reasonable description of the growth processes of other trees. This type of model can therefore be of value in predicting the start of the pollen season. The predicted dates were generally within 3-5 days of the observed. Finally the possibility of frost...
Web tools for predictive toxicology model building.
Jeliazkova, Nina
2012-07-01
The development and use of web tools in chemistry has accumulated more than 15 years of history already. Powered by the advances in the Internet technologies, the current generation of web systems are starting to expand into areas, traditional for desktop applications. The web platforms integrate data storage, cheminformatics and data analysis tools. The ease of use and the collaborative potential of the web is compelling, despite the challenges. The topic of this review is a set of recently published web tools that facilitate predictive toxicology model building. The focus is on software platforms, offering web access to chemical structure-based methods, although some of the frameworks could also provide bioinformatics or hybrid data analysis functionalities. A number of historical and current developments are cited. In order to provide comparable assessment, the following characteristics are considered: support for workflows, descriptor calculations, visualization, modeling algorithms, data management and data sharing capabilities, availability of GUI or programmatic access and implementation details. The success of the Web is largely due to its highly decentralized, yet sufficiently interoperable model for information access. The expected future convergence between cheminformatics and bioinformatics databases provides new challenges toward management and analysis of large data sets. The web tools in predictive toxicology will likely continue to evolve toward the right mix of flexibility, performance, scalability, interoperability, sets of unique features offered, friendly user interfaces, programmatic access for advanced users, platform independence, results reproducibility, curation and crowdsourcing utilities, collaborative sharing and secure access.
Predictive models for arteriovenous fistula maturation.
Al Shakarchi, Julien; McGrogan, Damian; Van der Veer, Sabine; Sperrin, Matthew; Inston, Nicholas
2016-05-07
Haemodialysis (HD) is a lifeline therapy for patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). A critical factor in the survival of renal dialysis patients is the surgical creation of vascular access, and international guidelines recommend arteriovenous fistulas (AVF) as the gold standard of vascular access for haemodialysis. Despite this, AVFs have been associated with high failure rates. Although risk factors for AVF failure have been identified, their utility for predicting AVF failure through predictive models remains unclear. The objectives of this review are to systematically and critically assess the methodology and reporting of studies developing prognostic predictive models for AVF outcomes and assess them for suitability in clinical practice. Electronic databases were searched for studies reporting prognostic predictive models for AVF outcomes. Dual review was conducted to identify studies that reported on the development or validation of a model constructed to predict AVF outcome following creation. Data were extracted on study characteristics, risk predictors, statistical methodology, model type, as well as validation process. We included four different studies reporting five different predictive models. Parameters identified that were common to all scoring system were age and cardiovascular disease. This review has found a small number of predictive models in vascular access. The disparity between each study limits the development of a unified predictive model.
Model Predictive Control Fundamentals | Orukpe | Nigerian Journal ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Model Predictive Control (MPC) has developed considerably over the last two decades, both within the research control community and in industries. MPC strategy involves the optimization of a performance index with respect to some future control sequence, using predictions of the output signal based on a process model, ...
Unreachable Setpoints in Model Predictive Control
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rawlings, James B.; Bonné, Dennis; Jørgensen, John Bagterp
2008-01-01
In this work, a new model predictive controller is developed that handles unreachable setpoints better than traditional model predictive control methods. The new controller induces an interesting fast/slow asymmetry in the tracking response of the system. Nominal asymptotic stability of the optim...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Guohui Li
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Aiming at the irregularity of nonlinear signal and its predicting difficulty, a deep learning prediction model based on extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition (ESMD and clustering analysis is proposed. Firstly, the original data is decomposed by ESMD to obtain the finite number of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs and residuals. Secondly, the fuzzy c-means is used to cluster the decomposed components, and then the deep belief network (DBN is used to predict it. Finally, the reconstructed IMFs and residuals are the final prediction results. Six kinds of prediction models are compared, which are DBN prediction model, EMD-DBN prediction model, EEMD-DBN prediction model, CEEMD-DBN prediction model, ESMD-DBN prediction model, and the proposed model in this paper. The same sunspots time series are predicted with six kinds of prediction models. The experimental results show that the proposed model has better prediction accuracy and smaller error.
Hybrid approaches to physiologic modeling and prediction
Olengü, Nicholas O.; Reifman, Jaques
2005-05-01
This paper explores how the accuracy of a first-principles physiological model can be enhanced by integrating data-driven, "black-box" models with the original model to form a "hybrid" model system. Both linear (autoregressive) and nonlinear (neural network) data-driven techniques are separately combined with a first-principles model to predict human body core temperature. Rectal core temperature data from nine volunteers, subject to four 30/10-minute cycles of moderate exercise/rest regimen in both CONTROL and HUMID environmental conditions, are used to develop and test the approach. The results show significant improvements in prediction accuracy, with average improvements of up to 30% for prediction horizons of 20 minutes. The models developed from one subject's data are also used in the prediction of another subject's core temperature. Initial results for this approach for a 20-minute horizon show no significant improvement over the first-principles model by itself.
Comparisons of Faulting-Based Pavement Performance Prediction Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Weina Wang
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Faulting prediction is the core of concrete pavement maintenance and design. Highway agencies are always faced with the problem of lower accuracy for the prediction which causes costly maintenance. Although many researchers have developed some performance prediction models, the accuracy of prediction has remained a challenge. This paper reviews performance prediction models and JPCP faulting models that have been used in past research. Then three models including multivariate nonlinear regression (MNLR model, artificial neural network (ANN model, and Markov Chain (MC model are tested and compared using a set of actual pavement survey data taken on interstate highway with varying design features, traffic, and climate data. It is found that MNLR model needs further recalibration, while the ANN model needs more data for training the network. MC model seems a good tool for pavement performance prediction when the data is limited, but it is based on visual inspections and not explicitly related to quantitative physical parameters. This paper then suggests that the further direction for developing the performance prediction model is incorporating the advantages and disadvantages of different models to obtain better accuracy.
Comparative predictions of discharge from an artificial catchment (Chicken Creek using sparse data
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
H. Flühler
2009-11-01
Full Text Available Ten conceptually different models in predicting discharge from the artificial Chicken Creek catchment in North-East Germany were used for this study. Soil texture and topography data were given to the modellers, but discharge data was withheld. We compare the predictions with the measurements from the 6 ha catchment and discuss the conceptualization and parameterization of the models. The predictions vary in a wide range, e.g. with the predicted actual evapotranspiration ranging from 88 to 579 mm/y and the discharge from 19 to 346 mm/y. The predicted components of the hydrological cycle deviated systematically from the observations, which were not known to the modellers. Discharge was mainly predicted as subsurface discharge with little direct runoff. In reality, surface runoff was a major flow component despite the fairly coarse soil texture. The actual evapotranspiration (AET and the ratio between actual and potential ET was systematically overestimated by nine of the ten models. None of the model simulations came even close to the observed water balance for the entire 3-year study period. The comparison indicates that the personal judgement of the modellers was a major source of the differences between the model results. The most important parameters to be presumed were the soil parameters and the initial soil-water content while plant parameterization had, in this particular case of sparse vegetation, only a minor influence on the results.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Babak Nakhjavan-Shahraki
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Introduction: Rapid acute physiology score (RAPS and rapid emergency medicine score (REMS are two physiologic models for measuring injury severity in emergency settings. The present study was designed to compare the two models in outcome prediction of trauma patients presenting to emergency department (ED.Methods: In this prospective cross-sectional study, the two models of RAPS and REMS were compared regarding prediction of mortality and poor outcome (severe disability based on Glasgow outcome scale of trauma patients presenting to the EDs of 5 educational hospitals in Iran (Tehran, Tabriz, Urmia, Jahrom and Ilam from May to October 2016. The discriminatory power and calibration of the models were calculated and compared using STATA 11.Results: 2148 patients with the mean age of 39.50±17.27 years were studied (75.56% males. The area under the curve of REMS and RAPS in predicting in-hospital mortality were calculated to be 0.93 (95% CI: 0.92-0.95 and 0.899 (95% CI: 0.86-0.93, respectively (p=0.02. These measures were 0.92 (95% CI: 0.90-0.94 and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.83-0.90, respectively, regarding poor outcome (p=0.001. The optimum cut-off point in predicting outcome was found to be 3 for REMS model and 2 for RAPS model. The sensitivity and specificity of REMS and RAPS in the mentioned cut offs were 95.93 vs. 85.37 and 77.63 vs. 83.51, respectively, in predicting mortality. Calibration and overall performance of the two models were acceptable.Conclusion: The present study showed that adding age and level of arterial oxygen saturation to the variables included in RAPS model can increase its predictive value. Therefore, it seems that REMS could be used for predicting mortality and poor outcome of trauma patients in emergency settings
Risk prediction model: Statistical and artificial neural network approach
Paiman, Nuur Azreen; Hariri, Azian; Masood, Ibrahim
2017-04-01
Prediction models are increasingly gaining popularity and had been used in numerous areas of studies to complement and fulfilled clinical reasoning and decision making nowadays. The adoption of such models assist physician's decision making, individual's behavior, and consequently improve individual outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of care. The objective of this paper is to reviewed articles related to risk prediction model in order to understand the suitable approach, development and the validation process of risk prediction model. A qualitative review of the aims, methods and significant main outcomes of the nineteen published articles that developed risk prediction models from numerous fields were done. This paper also reviewed on how researchers develop and validate the risk prediction models based on statistical and artificial neural network approach. From the review done, some methodological recommendation in developing and validating the prediction model were highlighted. According to studies that had been done, artificial neural network approached in developing the prediction model were more accurate compared to statistical approach. However currently, only limited published literature discussed on which approach is more accurate for risk prediction model development.
Prediction of hourly solar radiation with multi-model framework
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wu, Ji; Chan, Chee Keong
2013-01-01
Highlights: • A novel approach to predict solar radiation through the use of clustering paradigms. • Development of prediction models based on the intrinsic pattern observed in each cluster. • Prediction based on proper clustering and selection of model on current time provides better results than other methods. • Experiments were conducted on actual solar radiation data obtained from a weather station in Singapore. - Abstract: In this paper, a novel multi-model prediction framework for prediction of solar radiation is proposed. The framework started with the assumption that there are several patterns embedded in the solar radiation series. To extract the underlying pattern, the solar radiation series is first segmented into smaller subsequences, and the subsequences are further grouped into different clusters. For each cluster, an appropriate prediction model is trained. Hence a procedure for pattern identification is developed to identify the proper pattern that fits the current period. Based on this pattern, the corresponding prediction model is applied to obtain the prediction value. The prediction result of the proposed framework is then compared to other techniques. It is shown that the proposed framework provides superior performance as compared to others
Evaluating the Predictive Value of Growth Prediction Models
Murphy, Daniel L.; Gaertner, Matthew N.
2014-01-01
This study evaluates four growth prediction models--projection, student growth percentile, trajectory, and transition table--commonly used to forecast (and give schools credit for) middle school students' future proficiency. Analyses focused on vertically scaled summative mathematics assessments, and two performance standards conditions (high…
Model predictive control classical, robust and stochastic
Kouvaritakis, Basil
2016-01-01
For the first time, a textbook that brings together classical predictive control with treatment of up-to-date robust and stochastic techniques. Model Predictive Control describes the development of tractable algorithms for uncertain, stochastic, constrained systems. The starting point is classical predictive control and the appropriate formulation of performance objectives and constraints to provide guarantees of closed-loop stability and performance. Moving on to robust predictive control, the text explains how similar guarantees may be obtained for cases in which the model describing the system dynamics is subject to additive disturbances and parametric uncertainties. Open- and closed-loop optimization are considered and the state of the art in computationally tractable methods based on uncertainty tubes presented for systems with additive model uncertainty. Finally, the tube framework is also applied to model predictive control problems involving hard or probabilistic constraints for the cases of multiplic...
Predicting Fault-Prone Modules: A Comparative Study
Jia, Hao; Shu, Fengdi; Yang, Ye; Wang, Qing
Offshore and outsourced software development is a rapidly increasing trend in global software business environment. Predicting fault-prone modules in outsourced software product may allow both parties to establish mutually satisfactory, cost-effective testing strategies and product acceptance criteria, especially in iterative transitions. In this paper, based on industrial software releases data, we conduct an empirical study to compare ten classifiers over eight sets of code attributes, and provide recommendations to aid both the client and vendor to assess the products’ quality through defect prediction. Overall, a generally high accuracy is observed, which confirms the usefulness of the metric-based classification. Furthermore, two classification techniques, Random Forest and Bayesian Belief Network, outperform the others in terms of predictive accuracy; in more detail, the former is the most cost-effective and the latter is of the lowest fault-prone module escaping rate. Our study also concludes that code metrics including size, traditional complexity, and object-oriented complexity perform fairly well.
Modeling number of claims and prediction of total claim amount
Acar, Aslıhan Şentürk; Karabey, Uǧur
2017-07-01
In this study we focus on annual number of claims of a private health insurance data set which belongs to a local insurance company in Turkey. In addition to Poisson model and negative binomial model, zero-inflated Poisson model and zero-inflated negative binomial model are used to model the number of claims in order to take into account excess zeros. To investigate the impact of different distributional assumptions for the number of claims on the prediction of total claim amount, predictive performances of candidate models are compared by using root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria.
Combining GPS measurements and IRI model predictions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hernandez-Pajares, M.; Juan, J.M.; Sanz, J.; Bilitza, D.
2002-01-01
The free electrons distributed in the ionosphere (between one hundred and thousands of km in height) produce a frequency-dependent effect on Global Positioning System (GPS) signals: a delay in the pseudo-orange and an advance in the carrier phase. These effects are proportional to the columnar electron density between the satellite and receiver, i.e. the integrated electron density along the ray path. Global ionospheric TEC (total electron content) maps can be obtained with GPS data from a network of ground IGS (international GPS service) reference stations with an accuracy of few TEC units. The comparison with the TOPEX TEC, mainly measured over the oceans far from the IGS stations, shows a mean bias and standard deviation of about 2 and 5 TECUs respectively. The discrepancies between the STEC predictions and the observed values show an RMS typically below 5 TECUs (which also includes the alignment code noise). he existence of a growing database 2-hourly global TEC maps and with resolution of 5x2.5 degrees in longitude and latitude can be used to improve the IRI prediction capability of the TEC. When the IRI predictions and the GPS estimations are compared for a three month period around the Solar Maximum, they are in good agreement for middle latitudes. An over-determination of IRI TEC has been found at the extreme latitudes, the IRI predictions being, typically two times higher than the GPS estimations. Finally, local fits of the IRI model can be done by tuning the SSN from STEC GPS observations
Comparing the Discrete and Continuous Logistic Models
Gordon, Sheldon P.
2008-01-01
The solutions of the discrete logistic growth model based on a difference equation and the continuous logistic growth model based on a differential equation are compared and contrasted. The investigation is conducted using a dynamic interactive spreadsheet. (Contains 5 figures.)
Adding propensity scores to pure prediction models fails to improve predictive performance
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Amy S. Nowacki
2013-08-01
Full Text Available Background. Propensity score usage seems to be growing in popularity leading researchers to question the possible role of propensity scores in prediction modeling, despite the lack of a theoretical rationale. It is suspected that such requests are due to the lack of differentiation regarding the goals of predictive modeling versus causal inference modeling. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to formally examine the effect of propensity scores on predictive performance. Our hypothesis is that a multivariable regression model that adjusts for all covariates will perform as well as or better than those models utilizing propensity scores with respect to model discrimination and calibration.Methods. The most commonly encountered statistical scenarios for medical prediction (logistic and proportional hazards regression were used to investigate this research question. Random cross-validation was performed 500 times to correct for optimism. The multivariable regression models adjusting for all covariates were compared with models that included adjustment for or weighting with the propensity scores. The methods were compared based on three predictive performance measures: (1 concordance indices; (2 Brier scores; and (3 calibration curves.Results. Multivariable models adjusting for all covariates had the highest average concordance index, the lowest average Brier score, and the best calibration. Propensity score adjustment and inverse probability weighting models without adjustment for all covariates performed worse than full models and failed to improve predictive performance with full covariate adjustment.Conclusion. Propensity score techniques did not improve prediction performance measures beyond multivariable adjustment. Propensity scores are not recommended if the analytical goal is pure prediction modeling.
A Global Model for Bankruptcy Prediction.
Alaminos, David; Del Castillo, Agustín; Fernández, Manuel Ángel
2016-01-01
The recent world financial crisis has increased the number of bankruptcies in numerous countries and has resulted in a new area of research which responds to the need to predict this phenomenon, not only at the level of individual countries, but also at a global level, offering explanations of the common characteristics shared by the affected companies. Nevertheless, few studies focus on the prediction of bankruptcies globally. In order to compensate for this lack of empirical literature, this study has used a methodological framework of logistic regression to construct predictive bankruptcy models for Asia, Europe and America, and other global models for the whole world. The objective is to construct a global model with a high capacity for predicting bankruptcy in any region of the world. The results obtained have allowed us to confirm the superiority of the global model in comparison to regional models over periods of up to three years prior to bankruptcy.
Evaluation of wave runup predictions from numerical and parametric models
Stockdon, Hilary F.; Thompson, David M.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Long, Joseph W.
2014-01-01
Wave runup during storms is a primary driver of coastal evolution, including shoreline and dune erosion and barrier island overwash. Runup and its components, setup and swash, can be predicted from a parameterized model that was developed by comparing runup observations to offshore wave height, wave period, and local beach slope. Because observations during extreme storms are often unavailable, a numerical model is used to simulate the storm-driven runup to compare to the parameterized model and then develop an approach to improve the accuracy of the parameterization. Numerically simulated and parameterized runup were compared to observations to evaluate model accuracies. The analysis demonstrated that setup was accurately predicted by both the parameterized model and numerical simulations. Infragravity swash heights were most accurately predicted by the parameterized model. The numerical model suffered from bias and gain errors that depended on whether a one-dimensional or two-dimensional spatial domain was used. Nonetheless, all of the predictions were significantly correlated to the observations, implying that the systematic errors can be corrected. The numerical simulations did not resolve the incident-band swash motions, as expected, and the parameterized model performed best at predicting incident-band swash heights. An assimilated prediction using a weighted average of the parameterized model and the numerical simulations resulted in a reduction in prediction error variance. Finally, the numerical simulations were extended to include storm conditions that have not been previously observed. These results indicated that the parameterized predictions of setup may need modification for extreme conditions; numerical simulations can be used to extend the validity of the parameterized predictions of infragravity swash; and numerical simulations systematically underpredict incident swash, which is relatively unimportant under extreme conditions.
Fingerprint verification prediction model in hand dermatitis.
Lee, Chew K; Chang, Choong C; Johor, Asmah; Othman, Puwira; Baba, Roshidah
2015-07-01
Hand dermatitis associated fingerprint changes is a significant problem and affects fingerprint verification processes. This study was done to develop a clinically useful prediction model for fingerprint verification in patients with hand dermatitis. A case-control study involving 100 patients with hand dermatitis. All patients verified their thumbprints against their identity card. Registered fingerprints were randomized into a model derivation and model validation group. Predictive model was derived using multiple logistic regression. Validation was done using the goodness-of-fit test. The fingerprint verification prediction model consists of a major criterion (fingerprint dystrophy area of ≥ 25%) and two minor criteria (long horizontal lines and long vertical lines). The presence of the major criterion predicts it will almost always fail verification, while presence of both minor criteria and presence of one minor criterion predict high and low risk of fingerprint verification failure, respectively. When none of the criteria are met, the fingerprint almost always passes the verification. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.937, and the goodness-of-fit test showed agreement between the observed and expected number (P = 0.26). The derived fingerprint verification failure prediction model is validated and highly discriminatory in predicting risk of fingerprint verification in patients with hand dermatitis. © 2014 The International Society of Dermatology.
Massive Predictive Modeling using Oracle R Enterprise
CERN. Geneva
2014-01-01
R is fast becoming the lingua franca for analyzing data via statistics, visualization, and predictive analytics. For enterprise-scale data, R users have three main concerns: scalability, performance, and production deployment. Oracle's R-based technologies - Oracle R Distribution, Oracle R Enterprise, Oracle R Connector for Hadoop, and the R package ROracle - address these concerns. In this talk, we introduce Oracle's R technologies, highlighting how each enables R users to achieve scalability and performance while making production deployment of R results a natural outcome of the data analyst/scientist efforts. The focus then turns to Oracle R Enterprise with code examples using the transparency layer and embedded R execution, targeting massive predictive modeling. One goal behind massive predictive modeling is to build models per entity, such as customers, zip codes, simulations, in an effort to understand behavior and tailor predictions at the entity level. Predictions...
Compensatory versus noncompensatory models for predicting consumer preferences
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Anja Dieckmann
2009-04-01
Full Text Available Standard preference models in consumer research assume that people weigh and add all attributes of the available options to derive a decision, while there is growing evidence for the use of simplifying heuristics. Recently, a greedoid algorithm has been developed (Yee, Dahan, Hauser and Orlin, 2007; Kohli and Jedidi, 2007 to model lexicographic heuristics from preference data. We compare predictive accuracies of the greedoid approach and standard conjoint analysis in an online study with a rating and a ranking task. The lexicographic model derived from the greedoid algorithm was better at predicting ranking compared to rating data, but overall, it achieved lower predictive accuracy for hold-out data than the compensatory model estimated by conjoint analysis. However, a considerable minority of participants was better predicted by lexicographic strategies. We conclude that the new algorithm will not replace standard tools for analyzing preferences, but can boost the study of situational and individual differences in preferential choice processes.
Predictive Model of Systemic Toxicity (SOT)
In an effort to ensure chemical safety in light of regulatory advances away from reliance on animal testing, USEPA and L’Oréal have collaborated to develop a quantitative systemic toxicity prediction model. Prediction of human systemic toxicity has proved difficult and remains a ...
Assessment of performance of survival prediction models for cancer prognosis
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Chen Hung-Chia
2012-07-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Cancer survival studies are commonly analyzed using survival-time prediction models for cancer prognosis. A number of different performance metrics are used to ascertain the concordance between the predicted risk score of each patient and the actual survival time, but these metrics can sometimes conflict. Alternatively, patients are sometimes divided into two classes according to a survival-time threshold, and binary classifiers are applied to predict each patient’s class. Although this approach has several drawbacks, it does provide natural performance metrics such as positive and negative predictive values to enable unambiguous assessments. Methods We compare the survival-time prediction and survival-time threshold approaches to analyzing cancer survival studies. We review and compare common performance metrics for the two approaches. We present new randomization tests and cross-validation methods to enable unambiguous statistical inferences for several performance metrics used with the survival-time prediction approach. We consider five survival prediction models consisting of one clinical model, two gene expression models, and two models from combinations of clinical and gene expression models. Results A public breast cancer dataset was used to compare several performance metrics using five prediction models. 1 For some prediction models, the hazard ratio from fitting a Cox proportional hazards model was significant, but the two-group comparison was insignificant, and vice versa. 2 The randomization test and cross-validation were generally consistent with the p-values obtained from the standard performance metrics. 3 Binary classifiers highly depended on how the risk groups were defined; a slight change of the survival threshold for assignment of classes led to very different prediction results. Conclusions 1 Different performance metrics for evaluation of a survival prediction model may give different conclusions in
Testicular Cancer Risk Prediction Models
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of testicular cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
Pancreatic Cancer Risk Prediction Models
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing pancreatic cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Models
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing colorectal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
Prostate Cancer Risk Prediction Models
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing prostate cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
Bladder Cancer Risk Prediction Models
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing bladder cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
Esophageal Cancer Risk Prediction Models
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing esophageal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
Cervical Cancer Risk Prediction Models
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Models
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing breast cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Models
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing lung cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
Liver Cancer Risk Prediction Models
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing liver cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction Models
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing ovarian cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
PREDICTING THE INTENTION TO USE INTERNET – A COMPARATIVE STUDY
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Slaven Brumec
2006-06-01
Full Text Available This article focuses on an application of the Triandis Model in researching Internet usage and the intention to use Internet. Unlike other TAM-based studies undertaken to date, the Triandis Model offers a sociological account of interaction between the various factors, particularly attitude, intention, and behavior. The technique of Structural Equation Modeling was used to assess the impact those factors have on intention to use the Internet in accordance with the relationships posited by the Triandis Model. The survey was administered to Croatian undergraduate students at and employed individuals. The survey results are compared to the results of a similar survey that was carried out by two universities in Hong Kong.
Comparison of Predictive Models for the Early Diagnosis of Diabetes.
Jahani, Meysam; Mahdavi, Mahdi
2016-04-01
This study develops neural network models to improve the prediction of diabetes using clinical and lifestyle characteristics. Prediction models were developed using a combination of approaches and concepts. We used memetic algorithms to update weights and to improve prediction accuracy of models. In the first step, the optimum amount for neural network parameters such as momentum rate, transfer function, and error function were obtained through trial and error and based on the results of previous studies. In the second step, optimum parameters were applied to memetic algorithms in order to improve the accuracy of prediction. This preliminary analysis showed that the accuracy of neural networks is 88%. In the third step, the accuracy of neural network models was improved using a memetic algorithm and resulted model was compared with a logistic regression model using a confusion matrix and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). The memetic algorithm improved the accuracy from 88.0% to 93.2%. We also found that memetic algorithm had a higher accuracy than the model from the genetic algorithm and a regression model. Among models, the regression model has the least accuracy. For the memetic algorithm model the amount of sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and ROC are 96.2, 95.3, 93.8, 92.4, and 0.958 respectively. The results of this study provide a basis to design a Decision Support System for risk management and planning of care for individuals at risk of diabetes.
Predicting and Modeling RNA Architecture
Westhof, Eric; Masquida, Benoît; Jossinet, Fabrice
2011-01-01
SUMMARY A general approach for modeling the architecture of large and structured RNA molecules is described. The method exploits the modularity and the hierarchical folding of RNA architecture that is viewed as the assembly of preformed double-stranded helices defined by Watson-Crick base pairs and RNA modules maintained by non-Watson-Crick base pairs. Despite the extensive molecular neutrality observed in RNA structures, specificity in RNA folding is achieved through global constraints like lengths of helices, coaxiality of helical stacks, and structures adopted at the junctions of helices. The Assemble integrated suite of computer tools allows for sequence and structure analysis as well as interactive modeling by homology or ab initio assembly with possibilities for fitting within electronic density maps. The local key role of non-Watson-Crick pairs guides RNA architecture formation and offers metrics for assessing the accuracy of three-dimensional models in a more useful way than usual root mean square deviation (RMSD) values. PMID:20504963
Multiple Steps Prediction with Nonlinear ARX Models
Zhang, Qinghua; Ljung, Lennart
2007-01-01
NLARX (NonLinear AutoRegressive with eXogenous inputs) models are frequently used in black-box nonlinear system identication. Though it is easy to make one step ahead prediction with such models, multiple steps prediction is far from trivial. The main difficulty is that in general there is no easy way to compute the mathematical expectation of an output conditioned by past measurements. An optimal solution would require intensive numerical computations related to nonlinear filltering. The pur...
Micro-mechanical studies on graphite strength prediction models
Kanse, Deepak; Khan, I. A.; Bhasin, V.; Vaze, K. K.
2013-06-01
The influence of type of loading and size-effects on the failure strength of graphite were studied using Weibull model. It was observed that this model over-predicts size effect in tension. However, incorporation of grain size effect in Weibull model, allows a more realistic simulation of size effects. Numerical prediction of strength of four-point bend specimen was made using the Weibull parameters obtained from tensile test data. Effective volume calculations were carried out and subsequently predicted strength was compared with experimental data. It was found that Weibull model can predict mean flexural strength with reasonable accuracy even when grain size effect was not incorporated. In addition, the effects of microstructural parameters on failure strength were analyzed using Rose and Tucker model. Uni-axial tensile, three-point bend and four-point bend strengths were predicted using this model and compared with the experimental data. It was found that this model predicts flexural strength within 10%. For uni-axial tensile strength, difference was 22% which can be attributed to less number of tests on tensile specimens. In order to develop failure surface of graphite under multi-axial state of stress, an open ended hollow tube of graphite was subjected to internal pressure and axial load and Batdorf model was employed to calculate failure probability of the tube. Bi-axial failure surface was generated in the first and fourth quadrant for 50% failure probability by varying both internal pressure and axial load.
Predictability of extreme values in geophysical models
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A. E. Sterk
2012-09-01
Full Text Available Extreme value theory in deterministic systems is concerned with unlikely large (or small values of an observable evaluated along evolutions of the system. In this paper we study the finite-time predictability of extreme values, such as convection, energy, and wind speeds, in three geophysical models. We study whether finite-time Lyapunov exponents are larger or smaller for initial conditions leading to extremes. General statements on whether extreme values are better or less predictable are not possible: the predictability of extreme values depends on the observable, the attractor of the system, and the prediction lead time.
Comparative Analysis of Predicted Gene Expression among Crenarchaeal Genomes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shibsankar Das
2017-03-01
Full Text Available Research into new methods for identifying highly expressed genes in anonymous genome sequences has been going on for more than 15 years. We presented here an alternative approach based on modified score of relative codon usage bias to identify highly expressed genes in crenarchaeal genomes. The proposed algorithm relies exclusively on sequence features for identifying the highly expressed genes. In this study, a comparative analysis of predicted highly expressed genes in five crenarchaeal genomes was performed using the score of Modified Relative Codon Bias Strength (MRCBS as a numerical estimator of gene expression level. We found a systematic strong correlation between Codon Adaptation Index and MRCBS. Additionally, MRCBS correlated well with other expression measures. Our study indicates that MRCBS can consistently capture the highly expressed genes.
A Computational Model for Predicting Gas Breakdown
Gill, Zachary
2017-10-01
Pulsed-inductive discharges are a common method of producing a plasma. They provide a mechanism for quickly and efficiently generating a large volume of plasma for rapid use and are seen in applications including propulsion, fusion power, and high-power lasers. However, some common designs see a delayed response time due to the plasma forming when the magnitude of the magnetic field in the thruster is at a minimum. New designs are difficult to evaluate due to the amount of time needed to construct a new geometry and the high monetary cost of changing the power generation circuit. To more quickly evaluate new designs and better understand the shortcomings of existing designs, a computational model is developed. This model uses a modified single-electron model as the basis for a Mathematica code to determine how the energy distribution in a system changes with regards to time and location. By analyzing this energy distribution, the approximate time and location of initial plasma breakdown can be predicted. The results from this code are then compared to existing data to show its validity and shortcomings. Missouri S&T APLab.
Quantifying predictive accuracy in survival models.
Lirette, Seth T; Aban, Inmaculada
2017-12-01
For time-to-event outcomes in medical research, survival models are the most appropriate to use. Unlike logistic regression models, quantifying the predictive accuracy of these models is not a trivial task. We present the classes of concordance (C) statistics and R 2 statistics often used to assess the predictive ability of these models. The discussion focuses on Harrell's C, Kent and O'Quigley's R 2 , and Royston and Sauerbrei's R 2 . We present similarities and differences between the statistics, discuss the software options from the most widely used statistical analysis packages, and give a practical example using the Worcester Heart Attack Study dataset.
Predictive power of nuclear-mass models
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Yu. A. Litvinov
2013-12-01
Full Text Available Ten different theoretical models are tested for their predictive power in the description of nuclear masses. Two sets of experimental masses are used for the test: the older set of 2003 and the newer one of 2011. The predictive power is studied in two regions of nuclei: the global region (Z, N ≥ 8 and the heavy-nuclei region (Z ≥ 82, N ≥ 126. No clear correlation is found between the predictive power of a model and the accuracy of its description of the masses.
Spatial Economics Model Predicting Transport Volume
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lu Bo
2016-10-01
Full Text Available It is extremely important to predict the logistics requirements in a scientific and rational way. However, in recent years, the improvement effect on the prediction method is not very significant and the traditional statistical prediction method has the defects of low precision and poor interpretation of the prediction model, which cannot only guarantee the generalization ability of the prediction model theoretically, but also cannot explain the models effectively. Therefore, in combination with the theories of the spatial economics, industrial economics, and neo-classical economics, taking city of Zhuanghe as the research object, the study identifies the leading industry that can produce a large number of cargoes, and further predicts the static logistics generation of the Zhuanghe and hinterlands. By integrating various factors that can affect the regional logistics requirements, this study established a logistics requirements potential model from the aspect of spatial economic principles, and expanded the way of logistics requirements prediction from the single statistical principles to an new area of special and regional economics.
Predictive modeling: potential application in prevention services.
Wilson, Moira L; Tumen, Sarah; Ota, Rissa; Simmers, Anthony G
2015-05-01
In 2012, the New Zealand Government announced a proposal to introduce predictive risk models (PRMs) to help professionals identify and assess children at risk of abuse or neglect as part of a preventive early intervention strategy, subject to further feasibility study and trialing. The purpose of this study is to examine technical feasibility and predictive validity of the proposal, focusing on a PRM that would draw on population-wide linked administrative data to identify newborn children who are at high priority for intensive preventive services. Data analysis was conducted in 2013 based on data collected in 2000-2012. A PRM was developed using data for children born in 2010 and externally validated for children born in 2007, examining outcomes to age 5 years. Performance of the PRM in predicting administratively recorded substantiations of maltreatment was good compared to the performance of other tools reviewed in the literature, both overall, and for indigenous Māori children. Some, but not all, of the children who go on to have recorded substantiations of maltreatment could be identified early using PRMs. PRMs should be considered as a potential complement to, rather than a replacement for, professional judgment. Trials are needed to establish whether risks can be mitigated and PRMs can make a positive contribution to frontline practice, engagement in preventive services, and outcomes for children. Deciding whether to proceed to trial requires balancing a range of considerations, including ethical and privacy risks and the risk of compounding surveillance bias. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Enhancing Flood Prediction Reliability Using Bayesian Model Averaging
Liu, Z.; Merwade, V.
2017-12-01
Uncertainty analysis is an indispensable part of modeling the hydrology and hydrodynamics of non-idealized environmental systems. Compared to reliance on prediction from one model simulation, using on ensemble of predictions that consider uncertainty from different sources is more reliable. In this study, Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is applied to Black River watershed in Arkansas and Missouri by combining multi-model simulations to get reliable deterministic water stage and probabilistic inundation extent predictions. The simulation ensemble is generated from 81 LISFLOOD-FP subgrid model configurations that include uncertainty from channel shape, channel width, channel roughness and discharge. Model simulation outputs are trained with observed water stage data during one flood event, and BMA prediction ability is validated for another flood event. Results from this study indicate that BMA does not always outperform all members in the ensemble, but it provides relatively robust deterministic flood stage predictions across the basin. Station based BMA (BMA_S) water stage prediction has better performance than global based BMA (BMA_G) prediction which is superior to the ensemble mean prediction. Additionally, high-frequency flood inundation extent (probability greater than 60%) in BMA_G probabilistic map is more accurate than the probabilistic flood inundation extent based on equal weights.
Model Predictive Control of a Wave Energy Converter
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Palle; Pedersen, Tom Søndergård; Nielsen, Kirsten Mølgaard
2015-01-01
In this paper reactive control and Model Predictive Control (MPC) for a Wave Energy Converter (WEC) are compared. The analysis is based on a WEC from Wave Star A/S designed as a point absorber. The model predictive controller uses wave models based on the dominating sea states combined with a model......'s are designed for each sea state using a model assuming a linear loss torque. The mean power results from two controllers are compared using both loss models. Simulation results show that MPC can outperform a reactive controller if a good model of the conversion losses is available....... connecting undisturbed wave sequences to sequences of torque. Losses in the conversion from mechanical to electrical power are taken into account in two ways. Conventional reactive controllers are tuned for each sea state with the assumption that the converter has the same efficiency back and forth. MPC...
Dietary information improves cardiovascular disease risk prediction models.
Baik, I; Cho, N H; Kim, S H; Shin, C
2013-01-01
Data are limited on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction models that include dietary predictors. Using known risk factors and dietary information, we constructed and evaluated CVD risk prediction models. Data for modeling were from population-based prospective cohort studies comprised of 9026 men and women aged 40-69 years. At baseline, all were free of known CVD and cancer, and were followed up for CVD incidence during an 8-year period. We used Cox proportional hazard regression analysis to construct a traditional risk factor model, an office-based model, and two diet-containing models and evaluated these models by calculating Akaike information criterion (AIC), C-statistics, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), net reclassification improvement (NRI) and calibration statistic. We constructed diet-containing models with significant dietary predictors such as poultry, legumes, carbonated soft drinks or green tea consumption. Adding dietary predictors to the traditional model yielded a decrease in AIC (delta AIC=15), a 53% increase in relative IDI (P-value for IDI NRI (category-free NRI=0.14, P NRI (category-free NRI=0.08, P<0.01) compared with the office-based model. The calibration plots for risk prediction demonstrated that the inclusion of dietary predictors contributes to better agreement in persons at high risk for CVD. C-statistics for the four models were acceptable and comparable. We suggest that dietary information may be useful in constructing CVD risk prediction models.
Using data-driven approach for wind power prediction: A comparative study
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Taslimi Renani, Ehsan; Elias, Mohamad Fathi Mohamad; Rahim, Nasrudin Abd.
2016-01-01
Highlights: • Double exponential smoothing is the most accurate model in wind speed prediction. • A two-stage feature selection method is proposed to select most important inputs. • Direct prediction illustrates better accuracy than indirect prediction. • Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system outperforms data mining algorithms. • Random forest performs the worst compared to other data mining algorithm. - Abstract: Although wind energy is intermittent and stochastic in nature, it is increasingly important in the power generation due to its sustainability and pollution-free. Increased utilization of wind energy sources calls for more robust and efficient prediction models to mitigate uncertainties associated with wind power. This research compares two different approaches in wind power forecasting which are indirect and direct prediction methods. In indirect method, several times series are applied to forecast the wind speed, whereas the logistic function with five parameters is then used to forecast the wind power. In this study, backtracking search algorithm with novel crossover and mutation operators is employed to find the best parameters of five-parameter logistic function. A new feature selection technique, combining the mutual information and neural network is proposed in this paper to extract the most informative features with a maximum relevancy and minimum redundancy. From the comparative study, the results demonstrate that, in the direct prediction approach where the historical weather data are used to predict the wind power generation directly, adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system outperforms five data mining algorithms namely, random forest, M5Rules, k-nearest neighbor, support vector machine and multilayer perceptron. Moreover, it is also found that the mean absolute percentage error of the direct prediction method using adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system is 1.47% which is approximately less than half of the error obtained with the
Predictive validation of an influenza spread model.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ayaz Hyder
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998-1999. Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type. Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. CONCLUSIONS: Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve
Predictive Validation of an Influenza Spread Model
Hyder, Ayaz; Buckeridge, David L.; Leung, Brian
2013-01-01
Background Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. Methods and Findings We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998–1999). Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type). Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. Conclusions Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers) with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve their predictive
Predictive ability of boiler production models | Ogundu | Animal ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The weekly body weight measurements of a growing strain of Ross broiler were used to compare the of ability of three mathematical models (the multi, linear, quadratic and Exponential) to predict 8 week body weight from early body measurements at weeks I, II, III, IV, V, VI and VII. The results suggest that the three models ...
Chen, Guangchao; Li, Xuehua; Chen, Jingwen; Zhang, Ya-Nan; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M
2014-12-01
Biodegradation is the principal environmental dissipation process of chemicals. As such, it is a dominant factor determining the persistence and fate of organic chemicals in the environment, and is therefore of critical importance to chemical management and regulation. In the present study, the authors developed in silico methods assessing biodegradability based on a large heterogeneous set of 825 organic compounds, using the techniques of the C4.5 decision tree, the functional inner regression tree, and logistic regression. External validation was subsequently carried out by 2 independent test sets of 777 and 27 chemicals. As a result, the functional inner regression tree exhibited the best predictability with predictive accuracies of 81.5% and 81.0%, respectively, on the training set (825 chemicals) and test set I (777 chemicals). Performance of the developed models on the 2 test sets was subsequently compared with that of the Estimation Program Interface (EPI) Suite Biowin 5 and Biowin 6 models, which also showed a better predictability of the functional inner regression tree model. The model built in the present study exhibits a reasonable predictability compared with existing models while possessing a transparent algorithm. Interpretation of the mechanisms of biodegradation was also carried out based on the models developed. © 2014 SETAC.
Stage-specific predictive models for breast cancer survivability.
Kate, Rohit J; Nadig, Ramya
2017-01-01
Survivability rates vary widely among various stages of breast cancer. Although machine learning models built in past to predict breast cancer survivability were given stage as one of the features, they were not trained or evaluated separately for each stage. To investigate whether there are differences in performance of machine learning models trained and evaluated across different stages for predicting breast cancer survivability. Using three different machine learning methods we built models to predict breast cancer survivability separately for each stage and compared them with the traditional joint models built for all the stages. We also evaluated the models separately for each stage and together for all the stages. Our results show that the most suitable model to predict survivability for a specific stage is the model trained for that particular stage. In our experiments, using additional examples of other stages during training did not help, in fact, it made it worse in some cases. The most important features for predicting survivability were also found to be different for different stages. By evaluating the models separately on different stages we found that the performance widely varied across them. We also demonstrate that evaluating predictive models for survivability on all the stages together, as was done in the past, is misleading because it overestimates performance. Copyright Â© 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Posterior predictive checking of multiple imputation models.
Nguyen, Cattram D; Lee, Katherine J; Carlin, John B
2015-07-01
Multiple imputation is gaining popularity as a strategy for handling missing data, but there is a scarcity of tools for checking imputation models, a critical step in model fitting. Posterior predictive checking (PPC) has been recommended as an imputation diagnostic. PPC involves simulating "replicated" data from the posterior predictive distribution of the model under scrutiny. Model fit is assessed by examining whether the analysis from the observed data appears typical of results obtained from the replicates produced by the model. A proposed diagnostic measure is the posterior predictive "p-value", an extreme value of which (i.e., a value close to 0 or 1) suggests a misfit between the model and the data. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of the posterior predictive p-value as an imputation diagnostic. Using simulation methods, we deliberately misspecified imputation models to determine whether posterior predictive p-values were effective in identifying these problems. When estimating the regression parameter of interest, we found that more extreme p-values were associated with poorer imputation model performance, although the results highlighted that traditional thresholds for classical p-values do not apply in this context. A shortcoming of the PPC method was its reduced ability to detect misspecified models with increasing amounts of missing data. Despite the limitations of posterior predictive p-values, they appear to have a valuable place in the imputer's toolkit. In addition to automated checking using p-values, we recommend imputers perform graphical checks and examine other summaries of the test quantity distribution. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.
Predicting Protein Secondary Structure with Markov Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fischer, Paul; Larsen, Simon; Thomsen, Claus
2004-01-01
we are considering here, is to predict the secondary structure from the primary one. To this end we train a Markov model on training data and then use it to classify parts of unknown protein sequences as sheets, helices or coils. We show how to exploit the directional information contained...... in the Markov model for this task. Classifications that are purely based on statistical models might not always be biologically meaningful. We present combinatorial methods to incorporate biological background knowledge to enhance the prediction performance....
Predictions for mt and MW in minimal supersymmetric models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Buchmueller, O.; Ellis, J.R.; Flaecher, H.; Isidori, G.
2009-12-01
Using a frequentist analysis of experimental constraints within two versions of the minimal supersymmetric extension of the Standard Model, we derive the predictions for the top quark mass, m t , and the W boson mass, m W . We find that the supersymmetric predictions for both m t and m W , obtained by incorporating all the relevant experimental information and state-of-the-art theoretical predictions, are highly compatible with the experimental values with small remaining uncertainties, yielding an improvement compared to the case of the Standard Model. (orig.)
Energy based prediction models for building acoustics
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Brunskog, Jonas
2012-01-01
In order to reach robust and simplified yet accurate prediction models, energy based principle are commonly used in many fields of acoustics, especially in building acoustics. This includes simple energy flow models, the framework of statistical energy analysis (SEA) as well as more elaborated...... principles as, e.g., wave intensity analysis (WIA). The European standards for building acoustic predictions, the EN 12354 series, are based on energy flow and SEA principles. In the present paper, different energy based prediction models are discussed and critically reviewed. Special attention is placed...... on underlying basic assumptions, such as diffuse fields, high modal overlap, resonant field being dominant, etc., and the consequences of these in terms of limitations in the theory and in the practical use of the models....
Spiliopoulou, Athina; Nagy, Reka; Bermingham, Mairead L.; Huffman, Jennifer E.; Hayward, Caroline; Vitart, Veronique; Rudan, Igor; Campbell, Harry; Wright, Alan F.; Wilson, James F.; Pong-Wong, Ricardo; Agakov, Felix; Navarro, Pau; Haley, Chris S.
2015-01-01
We explore the prediction of individuals' phenotypes for complex traits using genomic data. We compare several widely used prediction models, including Ridge Regression, LASSO and Elastic Nets estimated from cohort data, and polygenic risk scores constructed using published summary statistics from genome-wide association meta-analyses (GWAMA). We evaluate the interplay between relatedness, trait architecture and optimal marker density, by predicting height, body mass index (BMI) and high-density lipoprotein level (HDL) in two data cohorts, originating from Croatia and Scotland. We empirically demonstrate that dense models are better when all genetic effects are small (height and BMI) and target individuals are related to the training samples, while sparse models predict better in unrelated individuals and when some effects have moderate size (HDL). For HDL sparse models achieved good across-cohort prediction, performing similarly to the GWAMA risk score and to models trained within the same cohort, which indicates that, for predicting traits with moderately sized effects, large sample sizes and familial structure become less important, though still potentially useful. Finally, we propose a novel ensemble of whole-genome predictors with GWAMA risk scores and demonstrate that the resulting meta-model achieves higher prediction accuracy than either model on its own. We conclude that although current genomic predictors are not accurate enough for diagnostic purposes, performance can be improved without requiring access to large-scale individual-level data. Our methodologically simple meta-model is a means of performing predictive meta-analysis for optimizing genomic predictions and can be easily extended to incorporate multiple population-level summary statistics or other domain knowledge. PMID:25918167
Prediction Models for Dynamic Demand Response
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Aman, Saima; Frincu, Marc; Chelmis, Charalampos; Noor, Muhammad; Simmhan, Yogesh; Prasanna, Viktor K.
2015-11-02
As Smart Grids move closer to dynamic curtailment programs, Demand Response (DR) events will become necessary not only on fixed time intervals and weekdays predetermined by static policies, but also during changing decision periods and weekends to react to real-time demand signals. Unique challenges arise in this context vis-a-vis demand prediction and curtailment estimation and the transformation of such tasks into an automated, efficient dynamic demand response (D^{2}R) process. While existing work has concentrated on increasing the accuracy of prediction models for DR, there is a lack of studies for prediction models for D^{2}R, which we address in this paper. Our first contribution is the formal definition of D^{2}R, and the description of its challenges and requirements. Our second contribution is a feasibility analysis of very-short-term prediction of electricity consumption for D^{2}R over a diverse, large-scale dataset that includes both small residential customers and large buildings. Our third, and major contribution is a set of insights into the predictability of electricity consumption in the context of D^{2}R. Specifically, we focus on prediction models that can operate at a very small data granularity (here 15-min intervals), for both weekdays and weekends - all conditions that characterize scenarios for D^{2}R. We find that short-term time series and simple averaging models used by Independent Service Operators and utilities achieve superior prediction accuracy. We also observe that workdays are more predictable than weekends and holiday. Also, smaller customers have large variation in consumption and are less predictable than larger buildings. Key implications of our findings are that better models are required for small customers and for non-workdays, both of which are critical for D^{2}R. Also, prediction models require just few days’ worth of data indicating that small amounts of
Is it Worth Comparing Different Bankruptcy Models?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Miroslava Dolejšová
2015-01-01
Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to compare the performance of small enterprises in the Zlín and Olomouc Regions. These enterprises were assessed using the Altman Z-Score model, the IN05 model, the Zmijewski model and the Springate model. The batch selected for this analysis included 16 enterprises from the Zlín Region and 16 enterprises from the Olomouc Region. Financial statements subjected to the analysis are from 2006 and 2010. The statistical data analysis was performed using the one-sample z-test for proportions and the paired t-test. The outcomes of the evaluation run using the Altman Z-Score model, the IN05 model and the Springate model revealed the enterprises to be financially sound, but the Zmijewski model identified them as being insolvent. The one-sample z-test for proportions confirmed that at least 80% of these enterprises show a sound financial condition. A comparison of all models has emphasized the substantial difference produced by the Zmijewski model. The paired t-test showed that the financial performance of small enterprises had remained the same during the years involved. It is recommended that small enterprises assess their financial performance using two different bankruptcy models. They may wish to combine the Zmijewski model with any bankruptcy model (the Altman Z-Score model, the IN05 model or the Springate model to ensure a proper method of analysis.
Preoperative prediction model of outcome after cholecystectomy for symptomatic gallstones
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Borly, L; Anderson, I B; Bardram, Linda
1999-01-01
and sonography evaluated gallbladder motility, gallstones, and gallbladder volume. Preoperative variables in patients with or without postcholecystectomy pain were compared statistically, and significant variables were combined in a logistic regression model to predict the postoperative outcome. RESULTS: Eighty...... and by the absence of 'agonizing' pain and of symptoms coinciding with pain (P model 15 of 18 predicted patients had postoperative pain (PVpos = 0.83). Of 62 patients predicted as having no pain postoperatively, 56 were pain-free (PVneg = 0.90). Overall accuracy...... was 89%. CONCLUSION: From this prospective study a model based on preoperative symptoms was developed to predict postcholecystectomy pain. Since intrastudy reclassification may give too optimistic results, the model should be validated in future studies....
Evaluation of CASP8 model quality predictions
Cozzetto, Domenico
2009-01-01
The model quality assessment problem consists in the a priori estimation of the overall and per-residue accuracy of protein structure predictions. Over the past years, a number of methods have been developed to address this issue and CASP established a prediction category to evaluate their performance in 2006. In 2008 the experiment was repeated and its results are reported here. Participants were invited to infer the correctness of the protein models submitted by the registered automatic servers. Estimates could apply to both whole models and individual amino acids. Groups involved in the tertiary structure prediction categories were also asked to assign local error estimates to each predicted residue in their own models and their results are also discussed here. The correlation between the predicted and observed correctness measures was the basis of the assessment of the results. We observe that consensus-based methods still perform significantly better than those accepting single models, similarly to what was concluded in the previous edition of the experiment. © 2009 WILEY-LISS, INC.
Wellness Model of Supervision: A Comparative Analysis
Lenz, A. Stephen; Sangganjanavanich, Varunee Faii; Balkin, Richard S.; Oliver, Marvarene; Smith, Robert L.
2012-01-01
This quasi-experimental study compared the effectiveness of the Wellness Model of Supervision (WELMS; Lenz & Smith, 2010) with alternative supervision models for developing wellness constructs, total personal wellness, and helping skills among counselors-in-training. Participants were 32 master's-level counseling students completing their…
Model predictive controller design of hydrocracker reactors
GÖKÇE, Dila
2014-01-01
This study summarizes the design of a Model Predictive Controller (MPC) in Tüpraş, İzmit Refinery Hydrocracker Unit Reactors. Hydrocracking process, in which heavy vacuum gasoil is converted into lighter and valuable products at high temperature and pressure is described briefly. Controller design description, identification and modeling studies are examined and the model variables are presented. WABT (Weighted Average Bed Temperature) equalization and conversion increase are simulate...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ohno, Yoshiharu, E-mail: yosirad@kobe-u.ac.jp [Division of Functional and Diagnostic Imaging Research, Department of Radiology, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe (Japan); Advanced Biomedical Imaging Research Center, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe (Japan); Fujisawa, Yasuko [Toshiba Medical Systems Corporation, Otawara (Japan); Koyama, Hisanobu; Kishida, Yuji; Seki, Shinichiro [Division of Radiology, Department of Radiology, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe (Japan); Sugihara, Naoki [Toshiba Medical Systems Corporation, Otawara (Japan); Yoshikawa, Takeshi [Division of Functional and Diagnostic Imaging Research, Department of Radiology, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe (Japan); Advanced Biomedical Imaging Research Center, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe (Japan)
2017-01-15
Purpose: To directly compare the capability of dynamic first-pass contrast-enhanced (CE-) perfusion area-detector CT (ADCT) and PET/CT for early prediction of treatment response, disease progression and overall survival of non-small cell carcinoma (NSCLC) patients treated with chemoradiotherapy. Materials and methods: Fifty-three consecutive Stage IIIB NSCLC patients who had undergone PET/CT, dynamic first-pass CE-perfusion ADCT, chemoradiotherapy, and follow-up examination were enrolled in this study. They were divided into two groups: 1) complete or partial response (CR + PR) and 2) stable or progressive disease (SD + PD). Pulmonary arterial and systemic arterial perfusions and total perfusion were assessed at targeted lesions with the dual-input maximum slope method, permeability surface and distribution volume with the Patlak plot method, tumor perfusion with the single-input maximum slope method, and SUV{sub max}, and results were averaged to determine final values for each patient. Next, step-wise regression analysis was used to determine which indices were the most useful for predicting therapeutic effect. Finally, overall survival of responders and non-responders assessed by using the indices that had a significant effect on prediction of therapeutic outcome was statistically compared. Results: The step-wise regression test showed that therapeutic effect (r{sup 2} = 0.63, p = 0.01) was significantly affected by the following three factors in order of magnitude of impact: systemic arterial perfusion, total perfusion, and SUV{sub max}. Mean overall survival showed a significant difference for total perfusion (p = 0.003) and systemic arterial perfusion (p = 0.04). Conclusion: Dynamic first-pass CE-perfusion ADCT as well as PET/CT are useful for treatment response prediction in NSCLC patients treated with chemoradiotherapy.
Multi-Model Ensemble Wake Vortex Prediction
Koerner, Stephan; Holzaepfel, Frank; Ahmad, Nash'at N.
2015-01-01
Several multi-model ensemble methods are investigated for predicting wake vortex transport and decay. This study is a joint effort between National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt to develop a multi-model ensemble capability using their wake models. An overview of different multi-model ensemble methods and their feasibility for wake applications is presented. The methods include Reliability Ensemble Averaging, Bayesian Model Averaging, and Monte Carlo Simulations. The methodologies are evaluated using data from wake vortex field experiments.
Model for predicting mountain wave field uncertainties
Damiens, Florentin; Lott, François; Millet, Christophe; Plougonven, Riwal
2017-04-01
Studying the propagation of acoustic waves throughout troposphere requires knowledge of wind speed and temperature gradients from the ground up to about 10-20 km. Typical planetary boundary layers flows are known to present vertical low level shears that can interact with mountain waves, thereby triggering small-scale disturbances. Resolving these fluctuations for long-range propagation problems is, however, not feasible because of computer memory/time restrictions and thus, they need to be parameterized. When the disturbances are small enough, these fluctuations can be described by linear equations. Previous works by co-authors have shown that the critical layer dynamics that occur near the ground produces large horizontal flows and buoyancy disturbances that result in intense downslope winds and gravity wave breaking. While these phenomena manifest almost systematically for high Richardson numbers and when the boundary layer depth is relatively small compare to the mountain height, the process by which static stability affects downslope winds remains unclear. In the present work, new linear mountain gravity wave solutions are tested against numerical predictions obtained with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. For Richardson numbers typically larger than unity, the mesoscale model is used to quantify the effect of neglected nonlinear terms on downslope winds and mountain wave patterns. At these regimes, the large downslope winds transport warm air, a so called "Foehn" effect than can impact sound propagation properties. The sensitivity of small-scale disturbances to Richardson number is quantified using two-dimensional spectral analysis. It is shown through a pilot study of subgrid scale fluctuations of boundary layer flows over realistic mountains that the cross-spectrum of mountain wave field is made up of the same components found in WRF simulations. The impact of each individual component on acoustic wave propagation is discussed in terms of
Pulsatile fluidic pump demonstration and predictive model application
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Morgan, J.G.; Holland, W.D.
1986-04-01
Pulsatile fluidic pumps were developed as a remotely controlled method of transferring or mixing feed solutions. A test in the Integrated Equipment Test facility demonstrated the performance of a critically safe geometry pump suitable for use in a 0.1-ton/d heavy metal (HM) fuel reprocessing plant. A predictive model was developed to calculate output flows under a wide range of external system conditions. Predictive and experimental flow rates are compared for both submerged and unsubmerged fluidic pump cases
A prediction method based on wavelet transform and multiple models fusion for chaotic time series
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhongda, Tian; Shujiang, Li; Yanhong, Wang; Yi, Sha
2017-01-01
In order to improve the prediction accuracy of chaotic time series, a prediction method based on wavelet transform and multiple models fusion is proposed. The chaotic time series is decomposed and reconstructed by wavelet transform, and approximate components and detail components are obtained. According to different characteristics of each component, least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) is used as predictive model for approximation components. At the same time, an improved free search algorithm is utilized for predictive model parameters optimization. Auto regressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) is used as predictive model for detail components. The multiple prediction model predictive values are fusion by Gauss–Markov algorithm, the error variance of predicted results after fusion is less than the single model, the prediction accuracy is improved. The simulation results are compared through two typical chaotic time series include Lorenz time series and Mackey–Glass time series. The simulation results show that the prediction method in this paper has a better prediction.
Comparing linear probability model coefficients across groups
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Holm, Anders; Ejrnæs, Mette; Karlson, Kristian Bernt
2015-01-01
This article offers a formal identification analysis of the problem in comparing coefficients from linear probability models between groups. We show that differences in coefficients from these models can result not only from genuine differences in effects, but also from differences in one or more...... of the following three components: outcome truncation, scale parameters and distributional shape of the predictor variable. These results point to limitations in using linear probability model coefficients for group comparisons. We also provide Monte Carlo simulations and real examples to illustrate...... these limitations, and we suggest a restricted approach to using linear probability model coefficients in group comparisons....
Probabilistic Modeling and Visualization for Bankruptcy Prediction
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Antunes, Francisco; Ribeiro, Bernardete; Pereira, Francisco Camara
2017-01-01
In accounting and finance domains, bankruptcy prediction is of great utility for all of the economic stakeholders. The challenge of accurate assessment of business failure prediction, specially under scenarios of financial crisis, is known to be complicated. Although there have been many successful......). Using real-world bankruptcy data, an in-depth analysis is conducted showing that, in addition to a probabilistic interpretation, the GP can effectively improve the bankruptcy prediction performance with high accuracy when compared to the other approaches. We additionally generate a complete graphical...... visualization to improve our understanding of the different attained performances, effectively compiling all the conducted experiments in a meaningful way. We complete our study with an entropy-based analysis that highlights the uncertainty handling properties provided by the GP, crucial for prediction tasks...
Modelling the predictive performance of credit scoring
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shi-Wei Shen
2013-07-01
Research purpose: The purpose of this empirical paper was to examine the predictive performance of credit scoring systems in Taiwan. Motivation for the study: Corporate lending remains a major business line for financial institutions. However, in light of the recent global financial crises, it has become extremely important for financial institutions to implement rigorous means of assessing clients seeking access to credit facilities. Research design, approach and method: Using a data sample of 10 349 observations drawn between 1992 and 2010, logistic regression models were utilised to examine the predictive performance of credit scoring systems. Main findings: A test of Goodness of fit demonstrated that credit scoring models that incorporated the Taiwan Corporate Credit Risk Index (TCRI, micro- and also macroeconomic variables possessed greater predictive power. This suggests that macroeconomic variables do have explanatory power for default credit risk. Practical/managerial implications: The originality in the study was that three models were developed to predict corporate firms’ defaults based on different microeconomic and macroeconomic factors such as the TCRI, asset growth rates, stock index and gross domestic product. Contribution/value-add: The study utilises different goodness of fits and receiver operator characteristics during the examination of the robustness of the predictive power of these factors.
Modelling language evolution: Examples and predictions
Gong, Tao; Shuai, Lan; Zhang, Menghan
2014-06-01
We survey recent computer modelling research of language evolution, focusing on a rule-based model simulating the lexicon-syntax coevolution and an equation-based model quantifying the language competition dynamics. We discuss four predictions of these models: (a) correlation between domain-general abilities (e.g. sequential learning) and language-specific mechanisms (e.g. word order processing); (b) coevolution of language and relevant competences (e.g. joint attention); (c) effects of cultural transmission and social structure on linguistic understandability; and (d) commonalities between linguistic, biological, and physical phenomena. All these contribute significantly to our understanding of the evolutions of language structures, individual learning mechanisms, and relevant biological and socio-cultural factors. We conclude the survey by highlighting three future directions of modelling studies of language evolution: (a) adopting experimental approaches for model evaluation; (b) consolidating empirical foundations of models; and (c) multi-disciplinary collaboration among modelling, linguistics, and other relevant disciplines.
Doses from aquatic pathways in CSA-N288.1: deterministic and stochastic predictions compared
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chouhan, S.L.; Davis, P.
2002-04-01
The conservatism and uncertainty in the Canadian Standards Association (CSA) model for calculating derived release limits (DRLs) for aquatic emissions of radionuclides from nuclear facilities was investigated. The model was run deterministically using the recommended default values for its parameters, and its predictions were compared with the distributed doses obtained by running the model stochastically. Probability density functions (PDFs) for the model parameters for the stochastic runs were constructed using data reported in the literature and results from experimental work done by AECL. The default values recommended for the CSA model for some parameters were found to be lower than the central values of the PDFs in about half of the cases. Doses (ingestion, groundshine and immersion) calculated as the median of 400 stochastic runs were higher than the deterministic doses predicted using the CSA default values of the parameters for more than half (85 out of the 163) of the cases. Thus, the CSA model is not conservative for calculating DRLs for aquatic radionuclide emissions, as it was intended to be. The output of the stochastic runs was used to determine the uncertainty in the CSA model predictions. The uncertainty in the total dose was high, with the 95% confidence interval exceeding an order of magnitude for all radionuclides. A sensitivity study revealed that total ingestion doses to adults predicted by the CSA model are sensitive primarily to water intake rates, bioaccumulation factors for fish and marine biota, dietary intakes of fish and marine biota, the fraction of consumed food arising from contaminated sources, the irrigation rate, occupancy factors and the sediment solid/liquid distribution coefficient. To improve DRL models, further research into aquatic exposure pathways should concentrate on reducing the uncertainty in these parameters. The PDFs given here can he used by other modellers to test and improve their models and to ensure that DRLs
Model Predictive Control of Sewer Networks
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedersen, Einar B.; Herbertsson, Hannes R.; Niemann, Henrik
2016-01-01
The developments in solutions for management of urban drainage are of vital importance, as the amount of sewer water from urban areas continues to increase due to the increase of the world’s population and the change in the climate conditions. How a sewer network is structured, monitored and cont...... benchmark model. Due to the inherent constraints the applied approach is based on Model Predictive Control....... and controlled have thus become essential factors for efficient performance of waste water treatment plants. This paper examines methods for simplified modelling and controlling a sewer network. A practical approach to the problem is used by analysing simplified design model, which is based on the Barcelona...
Vries, de W.; Kros, J.; Voogd, J.C.H.; Lesschen, J.P.; Stehfest, E.; Bouwman, A.F.
2009-01-01
In this study we compared three relatively simple process based models, developed for the national scale (INITIATOR2), European scale (MITERRA) and global scale (IMAGE). A comparison was made of NH3 , N2O, NOx and CH4 emissions, while making a distinction between housing systems, grazing and
Bayesian Predictive Models for Rayleigh Wind Speed
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Shahirinia, Amir; Hajizadeh, Amin; Yu, David C
2017-01-01
predictive model of the wind speed aggregates the non-homogeneous distributions into a single continuous distribution. Therefore, the result is able to capture the variation among the probability distributions of the wind speeds at the turbines’ locations in a wind farm. More specifically, instead of using...... a wind speed distribution whose parameters are known or estimated, the parameters are considered as random whose variations are according to probability distributions. The Bayesian predictive model for a Rayleigh which only has a single model scale parameter has been proposed. Also closed-form posterior......One of the major challenges with the increase in wind power generation is the uncertain nature of wind speed. So far the uncertainty about wind speed has been presented through probability distributions. Also the existing models that consider the uncertainty of the wind speed primarily view...
Comparative study of void fraction models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Borges, R.C.; Freitas, R.L.
1985-01-01
Some models for the calculation of void fraction in water in sub-cooled boiling and saturated vertical upward flow with forced convection have been selected and compared with experimental results in the pressure range of 1 to 150 bar. In order to know the void fraction axial distribution it is necessary to determine the net generation of vapour and the fluid temperature distribution in the slightly sub-cooled boiling region. It was verified that the net generation of vapour was well represented by the Saha-Zuber model. The selected models for the void fraction calculation present adequate results but with a tendency to super-estimate the experimental results, in particular the homogeneous models. The drift flux model is recommended, followed by the Armand and Smith models. (F.E.) [pt
Predictive analytics can support the ACO model.
Bradley, Paul
2012-04-01
Predictive analytics can be used to rapidly spot hard-to-identify opportunities to better manage care--a key tool in accountable care. When considering analytics models, healthcare providers should: Make value-based care a priority and act on information from analytics models. Create a road map that includes achievable steps, rather than major endeavors. Set long-term expectations and recognize that the effectiveness of an analytics program takes time, unlike revenue cycle initiatives that may show a quick return.
Comparing coefficients of nested nonlinear probability models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kohler, Ulrich; Karlson, Kristian Bernt; Holm, Anders
2011-01-01
In a series of recent articles, Karlson, Holm and Breen have developed a method for comparing the estimated coeffcients of two nested nonlinear probability models. This article describes this method and the user-written program khb that implements the method. The KHB-method is a general decomposi......In a series of recent articles, Karlson, Holm and Breen have developed a method for comparing the estimated coeffcients of two nested nonlinear probability models. This article describes this method and the user-written program khb that implements the method. The KHB-method is a general...
Predictive modeling in homogeneous catalysis: a tutorial
Maldonado, A.G.; Rothenberg, G.
2010-01-01
Predictive modeling has become a practical research tool in homogeneous catalysis. It can help to pinpoint ‘good regions’ in the catalyst space, narrowing the search for the optimal catalyst for a given reaction. Just like any other new idea, in silico catalyst optimization is accepted by some
Model predictive control of smart microgrids
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hu, Jiefeng; Zhu, Jianguo; Guerrero, Josep M.
2014-01-01
required to realise high-performance of distributed generations and will realise innovative control techniques utilising model predictive control (MPC) to assist in coordinating the plethora of generation and load combinations, thus enable the effective exploitation of the clean renewable energy sources...
Feedback model predictive control by randomized algorithms
Batina, Ivo; Stoorvogel, Antonie Arij; Weiland, Siep
2001-01-01
In this paper we present a further development of an algorithm for stochastic disturbance rejection in model predictive control with input constraints based on randomized algorithms. The algorithm presented in our work can solve the problem of stochastic disturbance rejection approximately but with
A Robustly Stabilizing Model Predictive Control Algorithm
Ackmece, A. Behcet; Carson, John M., III
2007-01-01
A model predictive control (MPC) algorithm that differs from prior MPC algorithms has been developed for controlling an uncertain nonlinear system. This algorithm guarantees the resolvability of an associated finite-horizon optimal-control problem in a receding-horizon implementation.
Hierarchical Model Predictive Control for Resource Distribution
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bendtsen, Jan Dimon; Trangbæk, K; Stoustrup, Jakob
2010-01-01
This paper deals with hierarchichal model predictive control (MPC) of distributed systems. A three level hierachical approach is proposed, consisting of a high level MPC controller, a second level of so-called aggregators, controlled by an online MPC-like algorithm, and a lower level of autonomous...
Model Predictive Control based on Finite Impulse Response Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Prasath, Guru; Jørgensen, John Bagterp
2008-01-01
We develop a regularized l2 finite impulse response (FIR) predictive controller with input and input-rate constraints. Feedback is based on a simple constant output disturbance filter. The performance of the predictive controller in the face of plant-model mismatch is investigated by simulations ...
Risk Prediction Models for Oral Clefts Allowing for Phenotypic Heterogeneity
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yalu eWen
2015-08-01
Full Text Available Oral clefts are common birth defects that have a major impact on the affected individual, their family and society. World-wide, the incidence of oral clefts is 1/700 live births, making them the most common craniofacial birth defects. The successful prediction of oral clefts may help identify sub-population at high risk, and promote new diagnostic and therapeutic strategies. Nevertheless, developing a clinically useful oral clefts risk prediction model remains a great challenge. Compelling evidences suggest the etiologies of oral clefts are highly heterogeneous, and the development of a risk prediction model with consideration of phenotypic heterogeneity may potentially improve the accuracy of a risk prediction model. In this study, we applied a previously developed statistical method to investigate the risk prediction on sub-phenotypes of oral clefts. Our results suggested subtypes of cleft lip and palate have similar genetic etiologies (AUC=0.572 with subtypes of cleft lip only (AUC=0.589, while the subtypes of cleft palate only (CPO have heterogeneous underlying mechanisms (AUCs for soft CPO and hard CPO are 0.617 and 0.623, respectively. This highlighted the potential that the hard and soft forms of CPO have their own mechanisms despite sharing some of the genetic risk factors. Comparing with conventional methods for risk prediction modeling, our method considers phenotypic heterogeneity of a disease, which potentially improves the accuracy for predicting each sub-phenotype of oral clefts.
Model output statistics applied to wind power prediction
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Joensen, A.; Giebel, G.; Landberg, L. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H.; Nielsen, H.A. [The Technical Univ. of Denmark, Dept. of Mathematical Modelling, Lyngby (Denmark)
1999-03-01
Being able to predict the output of a wind farm online for a day or two in advance has significant advantages for utilities, such as better possibility to schedule fossil fuelled power plants and a better position on electricity spot markets. In this paper prediction methods based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are considered. The spatial resolution used in NWP models implies that these predictions are not valid locally at a specific wind farm. Furthermore, due to the non-stationary nature and complexity of the processes in the atmosphere, and occasional changes of NWP models, the deviation between the predicted and the measured wind will be time dependent. If observational data is available, and if the deviation between the predictions and the observations exhibits systematic behavior, this should be corrected for; if statistical methods are used, this approaches is usually referred to as MOS (Model Output Statistics). The influence of atmospheric turbulence intensity, topography, prediction horizon length and auto-correlation of wind speed and power is considered, and to take the time-variations into account, adaptive estimation methods are applied. Three estimation techniques are considered and compared, Extended Kalman Filtering, recursive least squares and a new modified recursive least squares algorithm. (au) EU-JOULE-3. 11 refs.
Comparative Risk Predictions of Second Cancers After Carbon-Ion Therapy Versus Proton Therapy
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Eley, John G., E-mail: jeley@som.umaryland.edu [Department of Radiation Physics, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); University of Texas Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Houston, Texas (United States); Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland (United States); Friedrich, Thomas [GSI Helmholtzzentrum für Schwerionenforschung GmbH, Darmstadt (Germany); Homann, Kenneth L.; Howell, Rebecca M. [Department of Radiation Physics, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); University of Texas Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Houston, Texas (United States); Scholz, Michael; Durante, Marco [GSI Helmholtzzentrum für Schwerionenforschung GmbH, Darmstadt (Germany); Newhauser, Wayne D. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College, Baton Rouge, Louisiana (United States); Mary Bird Perkins Cancer Center, Baton Rouge, Louisiana (United States)
2016-05-01
Purpose: This work proposes a theoretical framework that enables comparative risk predictions for second cancer incidence after particle beam therapy for different ion species for individual patients, accounting for differences in relative biological effectiveness (RBE) for the competing processes of tumor initiation and cell inactivation. Our working hypothesis was that use of carbon-ion therapy instead of proton therapy would show a difference in the predicted risk of second cancer incidence in the breast for a sample of Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) patients. Methods and Materials: We generated biologic treatment plans and calculated relative predicted risks of second cancer in the breast by using two proposed methods: a full model derived from the linear quadratic model and a simpler linear-no-threshold model. Results: For our reference calculation, we found the predicted risk of breast cancer incidence for carbon-ion plans-to-proton plan ratio,
Comparison of Linear Prediction Models for Audio Signals
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
2009-03-01
Full Text Available While linear prediction (LP has become immensely popular in speech modeling, it does not seem to provide a good approach for modeling audio signals. This is somewhat surprising, since a tonal signal consisting of a number of sinusoids can be perfectly predicted based on an (all-pole LP model with a model order that is twice the number of sinusoids. We provide an explanation why this result cannot simply be extrapolated to LP of audio signals. If noise is taken into account in the tonal signal model, a low-order all-pole model appears to be only appropriate when the tonal components are uniformly distributed in the Nyquist interval. Based on this observation, different alternatives to the conventional LP model can be suggested. Either the model should be changed to a pole-zero, a high-order all-pole, or a pitch prediction model, or the conventional LP model should be preceded by an appropriate frequency transform, such as a frequency warping or downsampling. By comparing these alternative LP models to the conventional LP model in terms of frequency estimation accuracy, residual spectral flatness, and perceptual frequency resolution, we obtain several new and promising approaches to LP-based audio modeling.
Disease prediction models and operational readiness.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Courtney D Corley
Full Text Available The objective of this manuscript is to present a systematic review of biosurveillance models that operate on select agents and can forecast the occurrence of a disease event. We define a disease event to be a biological event with focus on the One Health paradigm. These events are characterized by evidence of infection and or disease condition. We reviewed models that attempted to predict a disease event, not merely its transmission dynamics and we considered models involving pathogens of concern as determined by the US National Select Agent Registry (as of June 2011. We searched commercial and government databases and harvested Google search results for eligible models, using terms and phrases provided by public health analysts relating to biosurveillance, remote sensing, risk assessments, spatial epidemiology, and ecological niche modeling. After removal of duplications and extraneous material, a core collection of 6,524 items was established, and these publications along with their abstracts are presented in a semantic wiki at http://BioCat.pnnl.gov. As a result, we systematically reviewed 44 papers, and the results are presented in this analysis. We identified 44 models, classified as one or more of the following: event prediction (4, spatial (26, ecological niche (28, diagnostic or clinical (6, spread or response (9, and reviews (3. The model parameters (e.g., etiology, climatic, spatial, cultural and data sources (e.g., remote sensing, non-governmental organizations, expert opinion, epidemiological were recorded and reviewed. A component of this review is the identification of verification and validation (V&V methods applied to each model, if any V&V method was reported. All models were classified as either having undergone Some Verification or Validation method, or No Verification or Validation. We close by outlining an initial set of operational readiness level guidelines for disease prediction models based upon established Technology
Caries risk assessment models in caries prediction
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Amila Zukanović
2013-11-01
Full Text Available Objective. The aim of this research was to assess the efficiency of different multifactor models in caries prediction. Material and methods. Data from the questionnaire and objective examination of 109 examinees was entered into the Cariogram, Previser and Caries-Risk Assessment Tool (CAT multifactor risk assessment models. Caries risk was assessed with the help of all three models for each patient, classifying them as low, medium or high-risk patients. The development of new caries lesions over a period of three years [Decay Missing Filled Tooth (DMFT increment = difference between Decay Missing Filled Tooth Surface (DMFTS index at baseline and follow up], provided for examination of the predictive capacity concerning different multifactor models. Results. The data gathered showed that different multifactor risk assessment models give significantly different results (Friedman test: Chi square = 100.073, p=0.000. Cariogram is the model which identified the majority of examinees as medium risk patients (70%. The other two models were more radical in risk assessment, giving more unfavorable risk –profiles for patients. In only 12% of the patients did the three multifactor models assess the risk in the same way. Previser and CAT gave the same results in 63% of cases – the Wilcoxon test showed that there is no statistically significant difference in caries risk assessment between these two models (Z = -1.805, p=0.071. Conclusions. Evaluation of three different multifactor caries risk assessment models (Cariogram, PreViser and CAT showed that only the Cariogram can successfully predict new caries development in 12-year-old Bosnian children.
Predictive ability of egg production models | Oni | Nigerian Journal of ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The monthly egg production data of a strain of Rhode Island chickens were used to compare three mathematical models (the Parabolic exponential, Wood's Gamma and modified Gamma by McNally) on their ability to predict 52 week total egg production from part-production at 16, 20, and 24 weeks, on a hen-housed basis.
Commentary: Monotremes and marsupials: Comparative models to ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Home; Journals; Journal of Biosciences; Volume 37; Issue 4. Commentary: Monotremes and marsupials: Comparative models to better understand the function of milk. Sanjana Kuruppath Swathi Bisana Julie A Sharp Christophe Lefevre Satish Kumar Kevin R Nicholas. Volume 37 Issue 4 September 2012 pp 581-588 ...
Modelling personality, plasticity and predictability in shelter dogs
2017-01-01
Behavioural assessments of shelter dogs (Canis lupus familiaris) typically comprise standardized test batteries conducted at one time point, but test batteries have shown inconsistent predictive validity. Longitudinal behavioural assessments offer an alternative. We modelled longitudinal observational data on shelter dog behaviour using the framework of behavioural reaction norms, partitioning variance into personality (i.e. inter-individual differences in behaviour), plasticity (i.e. inter-individual differences in average behaviour) and predictability (i.e. individual differences in residual intra-individual variation). We analysed data on interactions of 3263 dogs (n = 19 281) with unfamiliar people during their first month after arrival at the shelter. Accounting for personality, plasticity (linear and quadratic trends) and predictability improved the predictive accuracy of the analyses compared to models quantifying personality and/or plasticity only. While dogs were, on average, highly sociable with unfamiliar people and sociability increased over days since arrival, group averages were unrepresentative of all dogs and predictions made at the individual level entailed considerable uncertainty. Effects of demographic variables (e.g. age) on personality, plasticity and predictability were observed. Behavioural repeatability was higher one week after arrival compared to arrival day. Our results highlight the value of longitudinal assessments on shelter dogs and identify measures that could improve the predictive validity of behavioural assessments in shelters. PMID:28989764
Electrostatic ion thrusters - towards predictive modeling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kalentev, O.; Matyash, K.; Duras, J.; Lueskow, K.F.; Schneider, R. [Ernst-Moritz-Arndt Universitaet Greifswald, D-17489 (Germany); Koch, N. [Technische Hochschule Nuernberg Georg Simon Ohm, Kesslerplatz 12, D-90489 Nuernberg (Germany); Schirra, M. [Thales Electronic Systems GmbH, Soeflinger Strasse 100, D-89077 Ulm (Germany)
2014-02-15
The development of electrostatic ion thrusters so far has mainly been based on empirical and qualitative know-how, and on evolutionary iteration steps. This resulted in considerable effort regarding prototype design, construction and testing and therefore in significant development and qualification costs and high time demands. For future developments it is anticipated to implement simulation tools which allow for quantitative prediction of ion thruster performance, long-term behavior and space craft interaction prior to hardware design and construction. Based on integrated numerical models combining self-consistent kinetic plasma models with plasma-wall interaction modules a new quality in the description of electrostatic thrusters can be reached. These open the perspective for predictive modeling in this field. This paper reviews the application of a set of predictive numerical modeling tools on an ion thruster model of the HEMP-T (High Efficiency Multi-stage Plasma Thruster) type patented by Thales Electron Devices GmbH. (copyright 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim) (orig.)
Characterizing Attention with Predictive Network Models.
Rosenberg, M D; Finn, E S; Scheinost, D; Constable, R T; Chun, M M
2017-04-01
Recent work shows that models based on functional connectivity in large-scale brain networks can predict individuals' attentional abilities. While being some of the first generalizable neuromarkers of cognitive function, these models also inform our basic understanding of attention, providing empirical evidence that: (i) attention is a network property of brain computation; (ii) the functional architecture that underlies attention can be measured while people are not engaged in any explicit task; and (iii) this architecture supports a general attentional ability that is common to several laboratory-based tasks and is impaired in attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Looking ahead, connectivity-based predictive models of attention and other cognitive abilities and behaviors may potentially improve the assessment, diagnosis, and treatment of clinical dysfunction. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Genetic models of homosexuality: generating testable predictions
Gavrilets, Sergey; Rice, William R
2006-01-01
Homosexuality is a common occurrence in humans and other species, yet its genetic and evolutionary basis is poorly understood. Here, we formulate and study a series of simple mathematical models for the purpose of predicting empirical patterns that can be used to determine the form of selection that leads to polymorphism of genes influencing homosexuality. Specifically, we develop theory to make contrasting predictions about the genetic characteristics of genes influencing homosexuality including: (i) chromosomal location, (ii) dominance among segregating alleles and (iii) effect sizes that distinguish between the two major models for their polymorphism: the overdominance and sexual antagonism models. We conclude that the measurement of the genetic characteristics of quantitative trait loci (QTLs) found in genomic screens for genes influencing homosexuality can be highly informative in resolving the form of natural selection maintaining their polymorphism. PMID:17015344
GA-ARMA Model for Predicting IGS RTS Corrections
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mingyu Kim
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The global navigation satellite system (GNSS is widely used to estimate user positions. For precise positioning, users should correct for GNSS error components such as satellite orbit and clock errors as well as ionospheric delay. The international GNSS service (IGS real-time service (RTS can be used to correct orbit and clock errors in real-time. Since the IGS RTS provides real-time corrections via the Internet, intermittent data loss can occur due to software or hardware failures. We propose applying a genetic algorithm autoregressive moving average (GA-ARMA model to predict the IGS RTS corrections during data loss periods. The RTS orbit and clock corrections are predicted up to 900 s via the GA-ARMA model, and the prediction accuracies are compared with the results from a generic ARMA model. The orbit prediction performance of the GA-ARMA is nearly equivalent to that of ARMA, but GA-ARMA’s clock prediction performance is clearly better than that of ARMA, achieving a 32% error reduction. Predicted RTS corrections are applied to the broadcast ephemeris, and precise point positioning accuracies are compared. GA-ARMA shows a significant accuracy improvement over ARMA, particularly in terms of vertical positioning.
A statistical model for predicting muscle performance
Byerly, Diane Leslie De Caix
The objective of these studies was to develop a capability for predicting muscle performance and fatigue to be utilized for both space- and ground-based applications. To develop this predictive model, healthy test subjects performed a defined, repetitive dynamic exercise to failure using a Lordex spinal machine. Throughout the exercise, surface electromyography (SEMG) data were collected from the erector spinae using a Mega Electronics ME3000 muscle tester and surface electrodes placed on both sides of the back muscle. These data were analyzed using a 5th order Autoregressive (AR) model and statistical regression analysis. It was determined that an AR derived parameter, the mean average magnitude of AR poles, significantly correlated with the maximum number of repetitions (designated Rmax) that a test subject was able to perform. Using the mean average magnitude of AR poles, a test subject's performance to failure could be predicted as early as the sixth repetition of the exercise. This predictive model has the potential to provide a basis for improving post-space flight recovery, monitoring muscle atrophy in astronauts and assessing the effectiveness of countermeasures, monitoring astronaut performance and fatigue during Extravehicular Activity (EVA) operations, providing pre-flight assessment of the ability of an EVA crewmember to perform a given task, improving the design of training protocols and simulations for strenuous International Space Station assembly EVA, and enabling EVA work task sequences to be planned enhancing astronaut performance and safety. Potential ground-based, medical applications of the predictive model include monitoring muscle deterioration and performance resulting from illness, establishing safety guidelines in the industry for repetitive tasks, monitoring the stages of rehabilitation for muscle-related injuries sustained in sports and accidents, and enhancing athletic performance through improved training protocols while reducing
Evolutionary neural network modeling for software cumulative failure time prediction
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tian Liang; Noore, Afzel
2005-01-01
An evolutionary neural network modeling approach for software cumulative failure time prediction based on multiple-delayed-input single-output architecture is proposed. Genetic algorithm is used to globally optimize the number of the delayed input neurons and the number of neurons in the hidden layer of the neural network architecture. Modification of Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm with Bayesian regularization is used to improve the ability to predict software cumulative failure time. The performance of our proposed approach has been compared using real-time control and flight dynamic application data sets. Numerical results show that both the goodness-of-fit and the next-step-predictability of our proposed approach have greater accuracy in predicting software cumulative failure time compared to existing approaches
Prediction models : the right tool for the right problem
Kappen, Teus H.; Peelen, Linda M.
2016-01-01
PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Perioperative prediction models can help to improve personalized patient care by providing individual risk predictions to both patients and providers. However, the scientific literature on prediction model development and validation can be quite technical and challenging to
Comparison of Predictive Modeling Methods of Aircraft Landing Speed
Diallo, Ousmane H.
2012-01-01
Expected increases in air traffic demand have stimulated the development of air traffic control tools intended to assist the air traffic controller in accurately and precisely spacing aircraft landing at congested airports. Such tools will require an accurate landing-speed prediction to increase throughput while decreasing necessary controller interventions for avoiding separation violations. There are many practical challenges to developing an accurate landing-speed model that has acceptable prediction errors. This paper discusses the development of a near-term implementation, using readily available information, to estimate/model final approach speed from the top of the descent phase of flight to the landing runway. As a first approach, all variables found to contribute directly to the landing-speed prediction model are used to build a multi-regression technique of the response surface equation (RSE). Data obtained from operations of a major airlines for a passenger transport aircraft type to the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport are used to predict the landing speed. The approach was promising because it decreased the standard deviation of the landing-speed error prediction by at least 18% from the standard deviation of the baseline error, depending on the gust condition at the airport. However, when the number of variables is reduced to the most likely obtainable at other major airports, the RSE model shows little improvement over the existing methods. Consequently, a neural network that relies on a nonlinear regression technique is utilized as an alternative modeling approach. For the reduced number of variables cases, the standard deviation of the neural network models errors represent over 5% reduction compared to the RSE model errors, and at least 10% reduction over the baseline predicted landing-speed error standard deviation. Overall, the constructed models predict the landing-speed more accurately and precisely than the current state-of-the-art.
Neuro-fuzzy modeling in bankruptcy prediction
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vlachos D.
2003-01-01
Full Text Available For the past 30 years the problem of bankruptcy prediction had been thoroughly studied. From the paper of Altman in 1968 to the recent papers in the '90s, the progress of prediction accuracy was not satisfactory. This paper investigates an alternative modeling of the system (firm, combining neural networks and fuzzy controllers, i.e. using neuro-fuzzy models. Classical modeling is based on mathematical models that describe the behavior of the firm under consideration. The main idea of fuzzy control, on the other hand, is to build a model of a human control expert who is capable of controlling the process without thinking in a mathematical model. This control expert specifies his control action in the form of linguistic rules. These control rules are translated into the framework of fuzzy set theory providing a calculus, which can stimulate the behavior of the control expert and enhance its performance. The accuracy of the model is studied using datasets from previous research papers.
A prediction model for assessing residential radon concentration in Switzerland
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hauri, Dimitri D.; Huss, Anke; Zimmermann, Frank; Kuehni, Claudia E.; Röösli, Martin
2012-01-01
Indoor radon is regularly measured in Switzerland. However, a nationwide model to predict residential radon levels has not been developed. The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model to assess indoor radon concentrations in Switzerland. The model was based on 44,631 measurements from the nationwide Swiss radon database collected between 1994 and 2004. Of these, 80% randomly selected measurements were used for model development and the remaining 20% for an independent model validation. A multivariable log-linear regression model was fitted and relevant predictors selected according to evidence from the literature, the adjusted R², the Akaike's information criterion (AIC), and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The prediction model was evaluated by calculating Spearman rank correlation between measured and predicted values. Additionally, the predicted values were categorised into three categories (50th, 50th–90th and 90th percentile) and compared with measured categories using a weighted Kappa statistic. The most relevant predictors for indoor radon levels were tectonic units and year of construction of the building, followed by soil texture, degree of urbanisation, floor of the building where the measurement was taken and housing type (P-values <0.001 for all). Mean predicted radon values (geometric mean) were 66 Bq/m³ (interquartile range 40–111 Bq/m³) in the lowest exposure category, 126 Bq/m³ (69–215 Bq/m³) in the medium category, and 219 Bq/m³ (108–427 Bq/m³) in the highest category. Spearman correlation between predictions and measurements was 0.45 (95%-CI: 0.44; 0.46) for the development dataset and 0.44 (95%-CI: 0.42; 0.46) for the validation dataset. Kappa coefficients were 0.31 for the development and 0.30 for the validation dataset, respectively. The model explained 20% overall variability (adjusted R²). In conclusion, this residential radon prediction model, based on a large number of measurements, was demonstrated to be
Retrosynthetic Reaction Prediction Using Neural Sequence-to-Sequence Models.
Liu, Bowen; Ramsundar, Bharath; Kawthekar, Prasad; Shi, Jade; Gomes, Joseph; Luu Nguyen, Quang; Ho, Stephen; Sloane, Jack; Wender, Paul; Pande, Vijay
2017-10-25
We describe a fully data driven model that learns to perform a retrosynthetic reaction prediction task, which is treated as a sequence-to-sequence mapping problem. The end-to-end trained model has an encoder-decoder architecture that consists of two recurrent neural networks, which has previously shown great success in solving other sequence-to-sequence prediction tasks such as machine translation. The model is trained on 50,000 experimental reaction examples from the United States patent literature, which span 10 broad reaction types that are commonly used by medicinal chemists. We find that our model performs comparably with a rule-based expert system baseline model, and also overcomes certain limitations associated with rule-based expert systems and with any machine learning approach that contains a rule-based expert system component. Our model provides an important first step toward solving the challenging problem of computational retrosynthetic analysis.
Huang, Yanqi; He, Lan; Dong, Di; Yang, Caiyun; Liang, Cuishan; Chen, Xin; Ma, Zelan; Huang, Xiaomei; Yao, Su; Liang, Changhong; Tian, Jie; Liu, Zaiyi
2018-02-01
To develop and validate a radiomics prediction model for individualized prediction of perineural invasion (PNI) in colorectal cancer (CRC). After computed tomography (CT) radiomics features extraction, a radiomics signature was constructed in derivation cohort (346 CRC patients). A prediction model was developed to integrate the radiomics signature and clinical candidate predictors [age, sex, tumor location, and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level]. Apparent prediction performance was assessed. After internal validation, independent temporal validation (separate from the cohort used to build the model) was then conducted in 217 CRC patients. The final model was converted to an easy-to-use nomogram. The developed radiomics nomogram that integrated the radiomics signature and CEA level showed good calibration and discrimination performance [Harrell's concordance index (c-index): 0.817; 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.811-0.823]. Application of the nomogram in validation cohort gave a comparable calibration and discrimination (c-index: 0.803; 95% CI: 0.794-0.812). Integrating the radiomics signature and CEA level into a radiomics prediction model enables easy and effective risk assessment of PNI in CRC. This stratification of patients according to their PNI status may provide a basis for individualized auxiliary treatment.
Predicting water main failures using Bayesian model averaging and survival modelling approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kabir, Golam; Tesfamariam, Solomon; Sadiq, Rehan
2015-01-01
To develop an effective preventive or proactive repair and replacement action plan, water utilities often rely on water main failure prediction models. However, in predicting the failure of water mains, uncertainty is inherent regardless of the quality and quantity of data used in the model. To improve the understanding of water main failure, a Bayesian framework is developed for predicting the failure of water mains considering uncertainties. In this study, Bayesian model averaging method (BMA) is presented to identify the influential pipe-dependent and time-dependent covariates considering model uncertainties whereas Bayesian Weibull Proportional Hazard Model (BWPHM) is applied to develop the survival curves and to predict the failure rates of water mains. To accredit the proposed framework, it is implemented to predict the failure of cast iron (CI) and ductile iron (DI) pipes of the water distribution network of the City of Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Results indicate that the predicted 95% uncertainty bounds of the proposed BWPHMs capture effectively the observed breaks for both CI and DI water mains. Moreover, the performance of the proposed BWPHMs are better compare to the Cox-Proportional Hazard Model (Cox-PHM) for considering Weibull distribution for the baseline hazard function and model uncertainties. - Highlights: • Prioritize rehabilitation and replacements (R/R) strategies of water mains. • Consider the uncertainties for the failure prediction. • Improve the prediction capability of the water mains failure models. • Identify the influential and appropriate covariates for different models. • Determine the effects of the covariates on failure
Plant water potential improves prediction of empirical stomatal models.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
William R L Anderegg
Full Text Available Climate change is expected to lead to increases in drought frequency and severity, with deleterious effects on many ecosystems. Stomatal responses to changing environmental conditions form the backbone of all ecosystem models, but are based on empirical relationships and are not well-tested during drought conditions. Here, we use a dataset of 34 woody plant species spanning global forest biomes to examine the effect of leaf water potential on stomatal conductance and test the predictive accuracy of three major stomatal models and a recently proposed model. We find that current leaf-level empirical models have consistent biases of over-prediction of stomatal conductance during dry conditions, particularly at low soil water potentials. Furthermore, the recently proposed stomatal conductance model yields increases in predictive capability compared to current models, and with particular improvement during drought conditions. Our results reveal that including stomatal sensitivity to declining water potential and consequent impairment of plant water transport will improve predictions during drought conditions and show that many biomes contain a diversity of plant stomatal strategies that range from risky to conservative stomatal regulation during water stress. Such improvements in stomatal simulation are greatly needed to help unravel and predict the response of ecosystems to future climate extremes.
Computational modeling of oligonucleotide positional densities for human promoter prediction.
Narang, Vipin; Sung, Wing-Kin; Mittal, Ankush
2005-01-01
The gene promoter region controls transcriptional initiation of a gene, which is the most important step in gene regulation. In-silico detection of promoter region in genomic sequences has a number of applications in gene discovery and understanding gene expression regulation. However, computational prediction of eukaryotic poly-II promoters has remained a difficult task. This paper introduces a novel statistical technique for detecting promoter regions in long genomic sequences. A number of existing techniques analyze the occurrence frequencies of oligonucleotides in promoter sequences as compared to other genomic regions. In contrast, the present work studies the positional densities of oligonucleotides in promoter sequences. The analysis does not require any non-promoter sequence dataset or any model of the background oligonucleotide content of the genome. The statistical model learnt from a dataset of promoter sequences automatically recognizes a number of transcription factor binding sites simultaneously with their occurrence positions relative to the transcription start site. Based on this model, a continuous naïve Bayes classifier is developed for the detection of human promoters and transcription start sites in genomic sequences. The present study extends the scope of statistical models in general promoter modeling and prediction. Promoter sequence features learnt by the model correlate well with known biological facts. Results of human transcription start site prediction compare favorably with existing 2nd generation promoter prediction tools.
Three-model ensemble wind prediction in southern Italy
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
R. C. Torcasio
2016-03-01
Full Text Available Quality of wind prediction is of great importance since a good wind forecast allows the prediction of available wind power, improving the penetration of renewable energies into the energy market. Here, a 1-year (1 December 2012 to 30 November 2013 three-model ensemble (TME experiment for wind prediction is considered. The models employed, run operationally at National Research Council – Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC, are RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System, BOLAM (BOlogna Limited Area Model, and MOLOCH (MOdello LOCale in H coordinates. The area considered for the study is southern Italy and the measurements used for the forecast verification are those of the GTS (Global Telecommunication System. Comparison with observations is made every 3 h up to 48 h of forecast lead time. Results show that the three-model ensemble outperforms the forecast of each individual model. The RMSE improvement compared to the best model is between 22 and 30 %, depending on the season. It is also shown that the three-model ensemble outperforms the IFS (Integrated Forecasting System of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast for the surface wind forecasts. Notably, the three-model ensemble forecast performs better than each unbiased model, showing the added value of the ensemble technique. Finally, the sensitivity of the three-model ensemble RMSE to the length of the training period is analysed.
Three-model ensemble wind prediction in southern Italy
Torcasio, Rosa Claudia; Federico, Stefano; Calidonna, Claudia Roberta; Avolio, Elenio; Drofa, Oxana; Landi, Tony Christian; Malguzzi, Piero; Buzzi, Andrea; Bonasoni, Paolo
2016-03-01
Quality of wind prediction is of great importance since a good wind forecast allows the prediction of available wind power, improving the penetration of renewable energies into the energy market. Here, a 1-year (1 December 2012 to 30 November 2013) three-model ensemble (TME) experiment for wind prediction is considered. The models employed, run operationally at National Research Council - Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC), are RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System), BOLAM (BOlogna Limited Area Model), and MOLOCH (MOdello LOCale in H coordinates). The area considered for the study is southern Italy and the measurements used for the forecast verification are those of the GTS (Global Telecommunication System). Comparison with observations is made every 3 h up to 48 h of forecast lead time. Results show that the three-model ensemble outperforms the forecast of each individual model. The RMSE improvement compared to the best model is between 22 and 30 %, depending on the season. It is also shown that the three-model ensemble outperforms the IFS (Integrated Forecasting System) of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) for the surface wind forecasts. Notably, the three-model ensemble forecast performs better than each unbiased model, showing the added value of the ensemble technique. Finally, the sensitivity of the three-model ensemble RMSE to the length of the training period is analysed.
The predictive performance and stability of six species distribution models.
Duan, Ren-Yan; Kong, Xiao-Quan; Huang, Min-Yi; Fan, Wei-Yi; Wang, Zhi-Gao
2014-01-01
Predicting species' potential geographical range by species distribution models (SDMs) is central to understand their ecological requirements. However, the effects of using different modeling techniques need further investigation. In order to improve the prediction effect, we need to assess the predictive performance and stability of different SDMs. We collected the distribution data of five common tree species (Pinus massoniana, Betula platyphylla, Quercus wutaishanica, Quercus mongolica and Quercus variabilis) and simulated their potential distribution area using 13 environmental variables and six widely used SDMs: BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MAHAL, RF, MAXENT, and SVM. Each model run was repeated 100 times (trials). We compared the predictive performance by testing the consistency between observations and simulated distributions and assessed the stability by the standard deviation, coefficient of variation, and the 99% confidence interval of Kappa and AUC values. The mean values of AUC and Kappa from MAHAL, RF, MAXENT, and SVM trials were similar and significantly higher than those from BIOCLIM and DOMAIN trials (pSDMs (MAHAL, RF, MAXENT, and SVM) had higher prediction accuracy, smaller confidence intervals, and were more stable and less affected by the random variable (randomly selected pseudo-absence points). According to the prediction performance and stability of SDMs, we can divide these six SDMs into two categories: a high performance and stability group including MAHAL, RF, MAXENT, and SVM, and a low performance and stability group consisting of BIOCLIM, and DOMAIN. We highlight that choosing appropriate SDMs to address a specific problem is an important part of the modeling process.
A model for predicting lung cancer response to therapy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Seibert, Rebecca M.; Ramsey, Chester R.; Hines, J. Wesley; Kupelian, Patrick A.; Langen, Katja M.; Meeks, Sanford L.; Scaperoth, Daniel D.
2007-01-01
Purpose: Volumetric computed tomography (CT) images acquired by image-guided radiation therapy (IGRT) systems can be used to measure tumor response over the course of treatment. Predictive adaptive therapy is a novel treatment technique that uses volumetric IGRT data to actively predict the future tumor response to therapy during the first few weeks of IGRT treatment. The goal of this study was to develop and test a model for predicting lung tumor response during IGRT treatment using serial megavoltage CT (MVCT). Methods and Materials: Tumor responses were measured for 20 lung cancer lesions in 17 patients that were imaged and treated with helical tomotherapy with doses ranging from 2.0 to 2.5 Gy per fraction. Five patients were treated with concurrent chemotherapy, and 1 patient was treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Tumor response to treatment was retrospectively measured by contouring 480 serial MVCT images acquired before treatment. A nonparametric, memory-based locally weight regression (LWR) model was developed for predicting tumor response using the retrospective tumor response data. This model predicts future tumor volumes and the associated confidence intervals based on limited observations during the first 2 weeks of treatment. The predictive accuracy of the model was tested using a leave-one-out cross-validation technique with the measured tumor responses. Results: The predictive algorithm was used to compare predicted verse-measured tumor volume response for all 20 lesions. The average error for the predictions of the final tumor volume was 12%, with the true volumes always bounded by the 95% confidence interval. The greatest model uncertainty occurred near the middle of the course of treatment, in which the tumor response relationships were more complex, the model has less information, and the predictors were more varied. The optimal days for measuring the tumor response on the MVCT images were on elapsed Days 1, 2, 5, 9, 11, 12, 17, and 18 during
Predictive Models for Carcinogenicity and Mutagenicity ...
Mutagenicity and carcinogenicity are endpoints of major environmental and regulatory concern. These endpoints are also important targets for development of alternative methods for screening and prediction due to the large number of chemicals of potential concern and the tremendous cost (in time, money, animals) of rodent carcinogenicity bioassays. Both mutagenicity and carcinogenicity involve complex, cellular processes that are only partially understood. Advances in technologies and generation of new data will permit a much deeper understanding. In silico methods for predicting mutagenicity and rodent carcinogenicity based on chemical structural features, along with current mutagenicity and carcinogenicity data sets, have performed well for local prediction (i.e., within specific chemical classes), but are less successful for global prediction (i.e., for a broad range of chemicals). The predictivity of in silico methods can be improved by improving the quality of the data base and endpoints used for modelling. In particular, in vitro assays for clastogenicity need to be improved to reduce false positives (relative to rodent carcinogenicity) and to detect compounds that do not interact directly with DNA or have epigenetic activities. New assays emerging to complement or replace some of the standard assays include VitotoxTM, GreenScreenGC, and RadarScreen. The needs of industry and regulators to assess thousands of compounds necessitate the development of high-t
Disease Prediction Models and Operational Readiness
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Corley, Courtney D.; Pullum, Laura L.; Hartley, David M.; Benedum, Corey M.; Noonan, Christine F.; Rabinowitz, Peter M.; Lancaster, Mary J.
2014-03-19
INTRODUCTION: The objective of this manuscript is to present a systematic review of biosurveillance models that operate on select agents and can forecast the occurrence of a disease event. One of the primary goals of this research was to characterize the viability of biosurveillance models to provide operationally relevant information for decision makers to identify areas for future research. Two critical characteristics differentiate this work from other infectious disease modeling reviews. First, we reviewed models that attempted to predict the disease event, not merely its transmission dynamics. Second, we considered models involving pathogens of concern as determined by the US National Select Agent Registry (as of June 2011). Methods: We searched dozens of commercial and government databases and harvested Google search results for eligible models utilizing terms and phrases provided by public health analysts relating to biosurveillance, remote sensing, risk assessments, spatial epidemiology, and ecological niche-modeling, The publication date of search results returned are bound by the dates of coverage of each database and the date in which the search was performed, however all searching was completed by December 31, 2010. This returned 13,767 webpages and 12,152 citations. After de-duplication and removal of extraneous material, a core collection of 6,503 items was established and these publications along with their abstracts are presented in a semantic wiki at http://BioCat.pnnl.gov. Next, PNNL’s IN-SPIRE visual analytics software was used to cross-correlate these publications with the definition for a biosurveillance model resulting in the selection of 54 documents that matched the criteria resulting Ten of these documents, However, dealt purely with disease spread models, inactivation of bacteria, or the modeling of human immune system responses to pathogens rather than predicting disease events. As a result, we systematically reviewed 44 papers and the
Nonlinear model predictive control theory and algorithms
Grüne, Lars
2017-01-01
This book offers readers a thorough and rigorous introduction to nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) for discrete-time and sampled-data systems. NMPC schemes with and without stabilizing terminal constraints are detailed, and intuitive examples illustrate the performance of different NMPC variants. NMPC is interpreted as an approximation of infinite-horizon optimal control so that important properties like closed-loop stability, inverse optimality and suboptimality can be derived in a uniform manner. These results are complemented by discussions of feasibility and robustness. An introduction to nonlinear optimal control algorithms yields essential insights into how the nonlinear optimization routine—the core of any nonlinear model predictive controller—works. Accompanying software in MATLAB® and C++ (downloadable from extras.springer.com/), together with an explanatory appendix in the book itself, enables readers to perform computer experiments exploring the possibilities and limitations of NMPC. T...
Predictive Modeling in Actinide Chemistry and Catalysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Yang, Ping [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2016-05-16
These are slides from a presentation on predictive modeling in actinide chemistry and catalysis. The following topics are covered in these slides: Structures, bonding, and reactivity (bonding can be quantified by optical probes and theory, and electronic structures and reaction mechanisms of actinide complexes); Magnetic resonance properties (transition metal catalysts with multi-nuclear centers, and NMR/EPR parameters); Moving to more complex systems (surface chemistry of nanomaterials, and interactions of ligands with nanoparticles); Path forward and conclusions.
Predictive modelling of evidence informed teaching
Zhang, Dell; Brown, C.
2017-01-01
In this paper, we analyse the questionnaire survey data collected from 79 English primary schools about the situation of evidence informed teaching, where the evidences could come from research journals or conferences. Specifically, we build a predictive model to see what external factors could help to close the gap between teachers’ belief and behaviour in evidence informed teaching, which is the first of its kind to our knowledge. The major challenge, from the data mining perspective, is th...
A Predictive Model for Cognitive Radio
2006-09-14
response in a given situation. Vadde et al. interest and produce a model for prediction of the response. have applied response surface methodology and...34 2000. [3] K. K. Vadde and V. R. Syrotiuk, "Factor interaction on service configurations to those that best meet our communication delivery in mobile ad...resulting set of configurations randomly or apply additional 2004. screening criteria. [4] K. K. Vadde , M.-V. R. Syrotiuk, and D. C. Montgomery
Tectonic predictions with mantle convection models
Coltice, Nicolas; Shephard, Grace E.
2018-04-01
Over the past 15 yr, numerical models of convection in Earth's mantle have made a leap forward: they can now produce self-consistent plate-like behaviour at the surface together with deep mantle circulation. These digital tools provide a new window into the intimate connections between plate tectonics and mantle dynamics, and can therefore be used for tectonic predictions, in principle. This contribution explores this assumption. First, initial conditions at 30, 20, 10 and 0 Ma are generated by driving a convective flow with imposed plate velocities at the surface. We then compute instantaneous mantle flows in response to the guessed temperature fields without imposing any boundary conditions. Plate boundaries self-consistently emerge at correct locations with respect to reconstructions, except for small plates close to subduction zones. As already observed for other types of instantaneous flow calculations, the structure of the top boundary layer and upper-mantle slab is the dominant character that leads to accurate predictions of surface velocities. Perturbations of the rheological parameters have little impact on the resulting surface velocities. We then compute fully dynamic model evolution from 30 and 10 to 0 Ma, without imposing plate boundaries or plate velocities. Contrary to instantaneous calculations, errors in kinematic predictions are substantial, although the plate layout and kinematics in several areas remain consistent with the expectations for the Earth. For these calculations, varying the rheological parameters makes a difference for plate boundary evolution. Also, identified errors in initial conditions contribute to first-order kinematic errors. This experiment shows that the tectonic predictions of dynamic models over 10 My are highly sensitive to uncertainties of rheological parameters and initial temperature field in comparison to instantaneous flow calculations. Indeed, the initial conditions and the rheological parameters can be good enough
Butts, Carter T; Bierma, Jan C; Martin, Rachel W
2016-10-01
In his 1875 monograph on insectivorous plants, Darwin described the feeding reactions of Drosera flypaper traps and predicted that their secretions contained a "ferment" similar to mammalian pepsin, an aspartic protease. Here we report a high-quality draft genome sequence for the cape sundew, Drosera capensis, the first genome of a carnivorous plant from order Caryophyllales, which also includes the Venus flytrap (Dionaea) and the tropical pitcher plants (Nepenthes). This species was selected in part for its hardiness and ease of cultivation, making it an excellent model organism for further investigations of plant carnivory. Analysis of predicted protein sequences yields genes encoding proteases homologous to those found in other plants, some of which display sequence and structural features that suggest novel functionalities. Because the sequence similarity to proteins of known structure is in most cases too low for traditional homology modeling, 3D structures of representative proteases are predicted using comparative modeling with all-atom refinement. Although the overall folds and active residues for these proteins are conserved, we find structural and sequence differences consistent with a diversity of substrate recognition patterns. Finally, we predict differences in substrate specificities using in silico experiments, providing targets for structure/function studies of novel enzymes with biological and technological significance. Proteins 2016; 84:1517-1533. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Comparing numerically exact and modelled static friction
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Krengel Dominik
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Currently there exists no mechanically consistent “numerically exact” implementation of static and dynamic Coulomb friction for general soft particle simulations with arbitrary contact situations in two or three dimension, but only along one dimension. We outline a differential-algebraic equation approach for a “numerically exact” computation of friction in two dimensions and compare its application to the Cundall-Strack model in some test cases.
A comparative study of electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) analytical predictions and measurements
Clough, I. D.; Boud, W. E.
1981-03-01
Predictions by the specification and EMC analysis program (SEMCAP) used in the design of communication satellites to analyze and control EMC of electronic subsystems and wiring are compared with OTS, MAROTS and Meteosat data. The SEMCAP values are also checked against measurements on an experimental model of cable-coupled interference. A simple system handbook is provided. For a configuration of generators, receptors and wires, SEMCAP agrees reasonably well with measurements. The bundle shielding effect (of wires in the bundle other than those constituting the hard wire connections studied) introduces discrepencies. If this effect is allowed for in modelling, agreement with measurements is good.
A comparative study of seven human cochlear filter models.
Saremi, Amin; Beutelmann, Rainer; Dietz, Mathias; Ashida, Go; Kretzberg, Jutta; Verhulst, Sarah
2016-09-01
Auditory models have been developed for decades to simulate characteristics of the human auditory system, but it is often unknown how well auditory models compare to each other or perform in tasks they were not primarily designed for. This study systematically analyzes predictions of seven publicly-available cochlear filter models in response to a fixed set of stimuli to assess their capabilities of reproducing key aspects of human cochlear mechanics. The following features were assessed at frequencies of 0.5, 1, 2, 4, and 8 kHz: cochlear excitation patterns, nonlinear response growth, frequency selectivity, group delays, signal-in-noise processing, and amplitude modulation representation. For each task, the simulations were compared to available physiological data recorded in guinea pigs and gerbils as well as to human psychoacoustics data. The presented results provide application-oriented users with comprehensive information on the advantages, limitations and computation costs of these seven mainstream cochlear filter models.
Predictive Modeling of the CDRA 4BMS
Coker, Robert F.; Knox, James C.
2016-01-01
As part of NASA's Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) program and the Life Support Systems Project (LSSP), fully predictive models of the Four Bed Molecular Sieve (4BMS) of the Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly (CDRA) on the International Space Station (ISS) are being developed. This virtual laboratory will be used to help reduce mass, power, and volume requirements for future missions. In this paper we describe current and planned modeling developments in the area of carbon dioxide removal to support future crewed Mars missions as well as the resolution of anomalies observed in the ISS CDRA.
A simplified building airflow model for agent concentration prediction.
Jacques, David R; Smith, David A
2010-11-01
A simplified building airflow model is presented that can be used to predict the spread of a contaminant agent from a chemical or biological attack. If the dominant means of agent transport throughout the building is an air-handling system operating at steady-state, a linear time-invariant (LTI) model can be constructed to predict the concentration in any room of the building as a result of either an internal or external release. While the model does not capture weather-driven and other temperature-driven effects, it is suitable for concentration predictions under average daily conditions. The model is easily constructed using information that should be accessible to a building manager, supplemented with assumptions based on building codes and standard air-handling system design practices. The results of the model are compared with a popular multi-zone model for a simple building and are demonstrated for building examples containing one or more air-handling systems. The model can be used for rapid concentration prediction to support low-cost placement strategies for chemical and biological detection sensors.
Predicting nucleic acid binding interfaces from structural models of proteins.
Dror, Iris; Shazman, Shula; Mukherjee, Srayanta; Zhang, Yang; Glaser, Fabian; Mandel-Gutfreund, Yael
2012-02-01
The function of DNA- and RNA-binding proteins can be inferred from the characterization and accurate prediction of their binding interfaces. However, the main pitfall of various structure-based methods for predicting nucleic acid binding function is that they are all limited to a relatively small number of proteins for which high-resolution three-dimensional structures are available. In this study, we developed a pipeline for extracting functional electrostatic patches from surfaces of protein structural models, obtained using the I-TASSER protein structure predictor. The largest positive patches are extracted from the protein surface using the patchfinder algorithm. We show that functional electrostatic patches extracted from an ensemble of structural models highly overlap the patches extracted from high-resolution structures. Furthermore, by testing our pipeline on a set of 55 known nucleic acid binding proteins for which I-TASSER produces high-quality models, we show that the method accurately identifies the nucleic acids binding interface on structural models of proteins. Employing a combined patch approach we show that patches extracted from an ensemble of models better predicts the real nucleic acid binding interfaces compared with patches extracted from independent models. Overall, these results suggest that combining information from a collection of low-resolution structural models could be a valuable approach for functional annotation. We suggest that our method will be further applicable for predicting other functional surfaces of proteins with unknown structure. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Comparative analysis of Goodwin's business cycle models
Antonova, A. O.; Reznik, S.; Todorov, M. D.
2016-10-01
We compare the behavior of solutions of Goodwin's business cycle equation in the form of neutral delay differential equation with fixed delay (NDDE model) and in the form of the differential equations of 3rd, 4th and 5th orders (ODE model's). Such ODE model's (Taylor series expansion of NDDE in powers of θ) are proposed in N. Dharmaraj and K. Vela Velupillai [6] for investigation of the short periodic sawthooth oscillations in NDDE. We show that the ODE's of 3rd, 4th and 5th order may approximate the asymptotic behavior of only main Goodwin's mode, but not the sawthooth modes. If the order of the Taylor series expansion exceeds 5, then the approximate ODE becomes unstable independently of time lag θ.
Comparing predicted estrogen concentrations with measurements in US waters.
The range of exposure rates to the steroidal estrogens estrone (E1), beta-estradiol (E2), estriol (E3), and ethinyl estradiol (EE2) in the aquatic environment was investigated by modeling estrogen introduction via municipal wastewater from sewage plants across the US. Model predi...
A framework for evaluating forest landscape model predictions using empirical data and knowledge
Wen J. Wang; Hong S. He; Martin A. Spetich; Stephen R. Shifley; Frank R. Thompson; William D. Dijak; Qia. Wang
2014-01-01
Evaluation of forest landscape model (FLM) predictions is indispensable to establish the credibility of predictions. We present a framework that evaluates short- and long-term FLM predictions at site and landscape scales. Site-scale evaluation is conducted through comparing raster cell-level predictions with inventory plot data whereas landscape-scale evaluation is...
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) and hybrid ARMA/ANN model to predict global radiation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Voyant, Cyril; Muselli, Marc; Paoli, Christophe; Nivet, Marie-Laure
2012-01-01
We propose in this paper an original technique to predict global radiation using a hybrid ARMA/ANN model and data issued from a numerical weather prediction model (NWP). We particularly look at the multi-layer perceptron (MLP). After optimizing our architecture with NWP and endogenous data previously made stationary and using an innovative pre-input layer selection method, we combined it to an ARMA model from a rule based on the analysis of hourly data series. This model has been used to forecast the hourly global radiation for five places in Mediterranean area. Our technique outperforms classical models for all the places. The nRMSE for our hybrid model MLP/ARMA is 14.9% compared to 26.2% for the naïve persistence predictor. Note that in the standalone ANN case the nRMSE is 18.4%. Finally, in order to discuss the reliability of the forecaster outputs, a complementary study concerning the confidence interval of each prediction is proposed. -- Highlights: ► Time series forecasting with hybrid method based on the use of ALADIN numerical weather model, ANN and ARMA. ► Innovative pre-input layer selection method. ► Combination of optimized MLP and ARMA model obtained from a rule based on the analysis of hourly data series. ► Stationarity process (method and control) for the global radiation time series.
A Comparative Analysis of Task Modeling Notations
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jean Vanderdonckt
2012-03-01
paper a comparative analysis of selected models involving multiple users in an interaction is provided in order to identify concepts which are underexplored in today's multi-user interaction task modeling. This comparative analysis is based on three families of criteria: information criteria, conceptual coverage, and expressiveness. Merging the meta-models of the selected models enables to come up with a broader meta-model that could be instantiated in most situations involving multi-user interaction, like workflow information systems, CSCW.
Hand Posture Prediction Using Neural Networks within a Biomechanical Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marta C. Mora
2012-10-01
Full Text Available This paper proposes the use of artificial neural networks (ANNs in the framework of a biomechanical hand model for grasping. ANNs enhance the model capabilities as they substitute estimated data for the experimental inputs required by the grasping algorithm used. These inputs are the tentative grasping posture and the most open posture during grasping. As a consequence, more realistic grasping postures are predicted by the grasping algorithm, along with the contact information required by the dynamic biomechanical model (contact points and normals. Several neural network architectures are tested and compared in terms of prediction errors, leading to encouraging results. The performance of the overall proposal is also shown through simulation, where a grasping experiment is replicated and compared to the real grasping data collected by a data glove device.
Comparative modeling of InP solar cell structures
Jain, R. K.; Weinberg, I.; Flood, D. J.
1991-01-01
The comparative modeling of p(+)n and n(+)p indium phosphide solar cell structures is studied using a numerical program PC-1D. The optimal design study has predicted that the p(+)n structure offers improved cell efficiencies as compared to n(+)p structure, due to higher open-circuit voltage. The various cell material and process parameters to achieve the maximum cell efficiencies are reported. The effect of some of the cell parameters on InP cell I-V characteristics was studied. The available radiation resistance data on n(+)p and p(+)p InP solar cells are also critically discussed.
A new, accurate predictive model for incident hypertension.
Völzke, Henry; Fung, Glenn; Ittermann, Till; Yu, Shipeng; Baumeister, Sebastian E; Dörr, Marcus; Lieb, Wolfgang; Völker, Uwe; Linneberg, Allan; Jørgensen, Torben; Felix, Stephan B; Rettig, Rainer; Rao, Bharat; Kroemer, Heyo K
2013-11-01
Data mining represents an alternative approach to identify new predictors of multifactorial diseases. This work aimed at building an accurate predictive model for incident hypertension using data mining procedures. The primary study population consisted of 1605 normotensive individuals aged 20-79 years with 5-year follow-up from the population-based study, that is the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP). The initial set was randomly split into a training and a testing set. We used a probabilistic graphical model applying a Bayesian network to create a predictive model for incident hypertension and compared the predictive performance with the established Framingham risk score for hypertension. Finally, the model was validated in 2887 participants from INTER99, a Danish community-based intervention study. In the training set of SHIP data, the Bayesian network used a small subset of relevant baseline features including age, mean arterial pressure, rs16998073, serum glucose and urinary albumin concentrations. Furthermore, we detected relevant interactions between age and serum glucose as well as between rs16998073 and urinary albumin concentrations [area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC 0.76)]. The model was confirmed in the SHIP validation set (AUC 0.78) and externally replicated in INTER99 (AUC 0.77). Compared to the established Framingham risk score for hypertension, the predictive performance of the new model was similar in the SHIP validation set and moderately better in INTER99. Data mining procedures identified a predictive model for incident hypertension, which included innovative and easy-to-measure variables. The findings promise great applicability in screening settings and clinical practice.
Prediction of Chemical Function: Model Development and ...
The United States Environmental Protection Agency’s Exposure Forecaster (ExpoCast) project is developing both statistical and mechanism-based computational models for predicting exposures to thousands of chemicals, including those in consumer products. The high-throughput (HT) screening-level exposures developed under ExpoCast can be combined with HT screening (HTS) bioactivity data for the risk-based prioritization of chemicals for further evaluation. The functional role (e.g. solvent, plasticizer, fragrance) that a chemical performs can drive both the types of products in which it is found and the concentration in which it is present and therefore impacting exposure potential. However, critical chemical use information (including functional role) is lacking for the majority of commercial chemicals for which exposure estimates are needed. A suite of machine-learning based models for classifying chemicals in terms of their likely functional roles in products based on structure were developed. This effort required collection, curation, and harmonization of publically-available data sources of chemical functional use information from government and industry bodies. Physicochemical and structure descriptor data were generated for chemicals with function data. Machine-learning classifier models for function were then built in a cross-validated manner from the descriptor/function data using the method of random forests. The models were applied to: 1) predict chemi
Gamma-Ray Pulsars Models and Predictions
Harding, A K
2001-01-01
Pulsed emission from gamma-ray pulsars originates inside the magnetosphere, from radiation by charged particles accelerated near the magnetic poles or in the outer gaps. In polar cap models, the high energy spectrum is cut off by magnetic pair production above an energy that is dependent on the local magnetic field strength. While most young pulsars with surface fields in the range B = 10^{12} - 10^{13} G are expected to have high energy cutoffs around several GeV, the gamma-ray spectra of old pulsars having lower surface fields may extend to 50 GeV. Although the gamma-ray emission of older pulsars is weaker, detecting pulsed emission at high energies from nearby sources would be an important confirmation of polar cap models. Outer gap models predict more gradual high-energy turnovers at around 10 GeV, but also predict an inverse Compton component extending to TeV energies. Detection of pulsed TeV emission, which would not survive attenuation at the polar caps, is thus an important test of outer gap models. N...
A prediction model for Clostridium difficile recurrence
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Francis D. LaBarbera
2015-02-01
Full Text Available Background: Clostridium difficile infection (CDI is a growing problem in the community and hospital setting. Its incidence has been on the rise over the past two decades, and it is quickly becoming a major concern for the health care system. High rate of recurrence is one of the major hurdles in the successful treatment of C. difficile infection. There have been few studies that have looked at patterns of recurrence. The studies currently available have shown a number of risk factors associated with C. difficile recurrence (CDR; however, there is little consensus on the impact of most of the identified risk factors. Methods: Our study was a retrospective chart review of 198 patients diagnosed with CDI via Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR from February 2009 to Jun 2013. In our study, we decided to use a machine learning algorithm called the Random Forest (RF to analyze all of the factors proposed to be associated with CDR. This model is capable of making predictions based on a large number of variables, and has outperformed numerous other models and statistical methods. Results: We came up with a model that was able to accurately predict the CDR with a sensitivity of 83.3%, specificity of 63.1%, and area under curve of 82.6%. Like other similar studies that have used the RF model, we also had very impressive results. Conclusions: We hope that in the future, machine learning algorithms, such as the RF, will see a wider application.
Artificial Neural Network Model for Predicting Compressive
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Salim T. Yousif
2013-05-01
Full Text Available Compressive strength of concrete is a commonly used criterion in evaluating concrete. Although testing of the compressive strength of concrete specimens is done routinely, it is performed on the 28th day after concrete placement. Therefore, strength estimation of concrete at early time is highly desirable. This study presents the effort in applying neural network-based system identification techniques to predict the compressive strength of concrete based on concrete mix proportions, maximum aggregate size (MAS, and slump of fresh concrete. Back-propagation neural networks model is successively developed, trained, and tested using actual data sets of concrete mix proportions gathered from literature. The test of the model by un-used data within the range of input parameters shows that the maximum absolute error for model is about 20% and 88% of the output results has absolute errors less than 10%. The parametric study shows that water/cement ratio (w/c is the most significant factor affecting the output of the model. The results showed that neural networks has strong potential as a feasible tool for predicting compressive strength of concrete.
A generative model for predicting terrorist incidents
Verma, Dinesh C.; Verma, Archit; Felmlee, Diane; Pearson, Gavin; Whitaker, Roger
2017-05-01
A major concern in coalition peace-support operations is the incidence of terrorist activity. In this paper, we propose a generative model for the occurrence of the terrorist incidents, and illustrate that an increase in diversity, as measured by the number of different social groups to which that an individual belongs, is inversely correlated with the likelihood of a terrorist incident in the society. A generative model is one that can predict the likelihood of events in new contexts, as opposed to statistical models which are used to predict the future incidents based on the history of the incidents in an existing context. Generative models can be useful in planning for persistent Information Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) since they allow an estimation of regions in the theater of operation where terrorist incidents may arise, and thus can be used to better allocate the assignment and deployment of ISR assets. In this paper, we present a taxonomy of terrorist incidents, identify factors related to occurrence of terrorist incidents, and provide a mathematical analysis calculating the likelihood of occurrence of terrorist incidents in three common real-life scenarios arising in peace-keeping operations
PREDICTION MODELS OF GRAIN YIELD AND CHARACTERIZATION
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Narciso Ysac Avila Serrano
2009-06-01
Full Text Available With the objective to characterize the grain yield of five cowpea cultivars and to find linear regression models to predict it, a study was developed in La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico. A complete randomized blocks design was used. Simple and multivariate analyses of variance were carried out using the canonical variables to characterize the cultivars. The variables cluster per plant, pods per plant, pods per cluster, seeds weight per plant, seeds hectoliter weight, 100-seed weight, seeds length, seeds wide, seeds thickness, pods length, pods wide, pods weight, seeds per pods, and seeds weight per pods, showed significant differences (Pâ‰¤ 0.05 among cultivars. PaceÃ±o and IT90K-277-2 cultivars showed the higher seeds weight per plant. The linear regression models showed correlation coefficients â‰¥0.92. In these models, the seeds weight per plant, pods per cluster, pods per plant, cluster per plant and pods length showed significant correlations (Pâ‰¤ 0.05. In conclusion, the results showed that grain yield differ among cultivars and for its estimation, the prediction models showed determination coefficients highly dependable.
Dedes, I.; Dudek, J.
2018-03-01
We examine the effects of the parametric correlations on the predictive capacities of the theoretical modelling keeping in mind the nuclear structure applications. The main purpose of this work is to illustrate the method of establishing the presence and determining the form of parametric correlations within a model as well as an algorithm of elimination by substitution (see text) of parametric correlations. We examine the effects of the elimination of the parametric correlations on the stabilisation of the model predictions further and further away from the fitting zone. It follows that the choice of the physics case and the selection of the associated model are of secondary importance in this case. Under these circumstances we give priority to the relative simplicity of the underlying mathematical algorithm, provided the model is realistic. Following such criteria, we focus specifically on an important but relatively simple case of doubly magic spherical nuclei. To profit from the algorithmic simplicity we chose working with the phenomenological spherically symmetric Woods–Saxon mean-field. We employ two variants of the underlying Hamiltonian, the traditional one involving both the central and the spin orbit potential in the Woods–Saxon form and the more advanced version with the self-consistent density-dependent spin–orbit interaction. We compare the effects of eliminating of various types of correlations and discuss the improvement of the quality of predictions (‘predictive power’) under realistic parameter adjustment conditions.
Predictive modeling of mosquito abundance and dengue transmission in Kenya
Caldwell, J.; Krystosik, A.; Mutuku, F.; Ndenga, B.; LaBeaud, D.; Mordecai, E.
2017-12-01
Approximately 390 million people are exposed to dengue virus every year, and with no widely available treatments or vaccines, predictive models of disease risk are valuable tools for vector control and disease prevention. The aim of this study was to modify and improve climate-driven predictive models of dengue vector abundance (Aedes spp. mosquitoes) and viral transmission to people in Kenya. We simulated disease transmission using a temperature-driven mechanistic model and compared model predictions with vector trap data for larvae, pupae, and adult mosquitoes collected between 2014 and 2017 at four sites across urban and rural villages in Kenya. We tested predictive capacity of our models using four temperature measurements (minimum, maximum, range, and anomalies) across daily, weekly, and monthly time scales. Our results indicate seasonal temperature variation is a key driving factor of Aedes mosquito abundance and disease transmission. These models can help vector control programs target specific locations and times when vectors are likely to be present, and can be modified for other Aedes-transmitted diseases and arboviral endemic regions around the world.
Predictive Models for Normal Fetal Cardiac Structures.
Krishnan, Anita; Pike, Jodi I; McCarter, Robert; Fulgium, Amanda L; Wilson, Emmanuel; Donofrio, Mary T; Sable, Craig A
2016-12-01
Clinicians rely on age- and size-specific measures of cardiac structures to diagnose cardiac disease. No universally accepted normative data exist for fetal cardiac structures, and most fetal cardiac centers do not use the same standards. The aim of this study was to derive predictive models for Z scores for 13 commonly evaluated fetal cardiac structures using a large heterogeneous population of fetuses without structural cardiac defects. The study used archived normal fetal echocardiograms in representative fetuses aged 12 to 39 weeks. Thirteen cardiac dimensions were remeasured by a blinded echocardiographer from digitally stored clips. Studies with inadequate imaging views were excluded. Regression models were developed to relate each dimension to estimated gestational age (EGA) by dates, biparietal diameter, femur length, and estimated fetal weight by the Hadlock formula. Dimension outcomes were transformed (e.g., using the logarithm or square root) as necessary to meet the normality assumption. Higher order terms, quadratic or cubic, were added as needed to improve model fit. Information criteria and adjusted R 2 values were used to guide final model selection. Each Z-score equation is based on measurements derived from 296 to 414 unique fetuses. EGA yielded the best predictive model for the majority of dimensions; adjusted R 2 values ranged from 0.72 to 0.893. However, each of the other highly correlated (r > 0.94) biometric parameters was an acceptable surrogate for EGA. In most cases, the best fitting model included squared and cubic terms to introduce curvilinearity. For each dimension, models based on EGA provided the best fit for determining normal measurements of fetal cardiac structures. Nevertheless, other biometric parameters, including femur length, biparietal diameter, and estimated fetal weight provided results that were nearly as good. Comprehensive Z-score results are available on the basis of highly predictive models derived from gestational
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Moon, Jin Woo; Yoon, Younju; Jeon, Young-Hoon; Kim, Sooyoung
2017-01-01
Highlights: • Initial ANN model was developed for predicting the time to the setback temperature. • Initial model was optimized for producing accurate output. • Optimized model proved its prediction accuracy. • ANN-based algorithms were developed and tested their performance. • ANN-based algorithms presented superior thermal comfort or energy efficiency. - Abstract: In this study, a temperature control algorithm was developed to apply a setback temperature predictively for the cooling system of a residential building during occupied periods by residents. An artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed to determine the required time for increasing the current indoor temperature to the setback temperature. This study involved three phases: development of the initial ANN-based prediction model, optimization and testing of the initial model, and development and testing of three control algorithms. The development and performance testing of the model and algorithm were conducted using TRNSYS and MATLAB. Through the development and optimization process, the final ANN model employed indoor temperature and the temperature difference between the current and target setback temperature as two input neurons. The optimal number of hidden layers, number of neurons, learning rate, and moment were determined to be 4, 9, 0.6, and 0.9, respectively. The tangent–sigmoid and pure-linear transfer function was used in the hidden and output neurons, respectively. The ANN model used 100 training data sets with sliding-window method for data management. Levenberg-Marquart training method was employed for model training. The optimized model had a prediction accuracy of 0.9097 root mean square errors when compared with the simulated results. Employing the ANN model, ANN-based algorithms maintained indoor temperatures better within target ranges. Compared to the conventional algorithm, the ANN-based algorithms reduced the duration of time, in which the indoor temperature
An analytical model for climatic predictions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Njau, E.C.
1990-12-01
A climatic model based upon analytical expressions is presented. This model is capable of making long-range predictions of heat energy variations on regional or global scales. These variations can then be transformed into corresponding variations of some other key climatic parameters since weather and climatic changes are basically driven by differential heating and cooling around the earth. On the basis of the mathematical expressions upon which the model is based, it is shown that the global heat energy structure (and hence the associated climatic system) are characterized by zonally as well as latitudinally propagating fluctuations at frequencies downward of 0.5 day -1 . We have calculated the propagation speeds for those particular frequencies that are well documented in the literature. The calculated speeds are in excellent agreement with the measured speeds. (author). 13 refs
An Anisotropic Hardening Model for Springback Prediction
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zeng, Danielle; Xia, Z. Cedric
2005-01-01
As more Advanced High-Strength Steels (AHSS) are heavily used for automotive body structures and closures panels, accurate springback prediction for these components becomes more challenging because of their rapid hardening characteristics and ability to sustain even higher stresses. In this paper, a modified Mroz hardening model is proposed to capture realistic Bauschinger effect at reverse loading, such as when material passes through die radii or drawbead during sheet metal forming process. This model accounts for material anisotropic yield surface and nonlinear isotropic/kinematic hardening behavior. Material tension/compression test data are used to accurately represent Bauschinger effect. The effectiveness of the model is demonstrated by comparison of numerical and experimental springback results for a DP600 straight U-channel test
Using Deep Learning Model for Meteorological Satellite Cloud Image Prediction
Su, X.
2017-12-01
A satellite cloud image contains much weather information such as precipitation information. Short-time cloud movement forecast is important for precipitation forecast and is the primary means for typhoon monitoring. The traditional methods are mostly using the cloud feature matching and linear extrapolation to predict the cloud movement, which makes that the nonstationary process such as inversion and deformation during the movement of the cloud is basically not considered. It is still a hard task to predict cloud movement timely and correctly. As deep learning model could perform well in learning spatiotemporal features, to meet this challenge, we could regard cloud image prediction as a spatiotemporal sequence forecasting problem and introduce deep learning model to solve this problem. In this research, we use a variant of Gated-Recurrent-Unit(GRU) that has convolutional structures to deal with spatiotemporal features and build an end-to-end model to solve this forecast problem. In this model, both the input and output are spatiotemporal sequences. Compared to Convolutional LSTM(ConvLSTM) model, this model has lower amount of parameters. We imply this model on GOES satellite data and the model perform well.
Predictions of titanium alloy properties using thermodynamic modeling tools
Zhang, F.; Xie, F.-Y.; Chen, S.-L.; Chang, Y. A.; Furrer, D.; Venkatesh, V.
2005-12-01
Thermodynamic modeling tools have become essential in understanding the effect of alloy chemistry on the final microstructure of a material. Implementation of such tools to improve titanium processing via parameter optimization has resulted in significant cost savings through the elimination of shop/laboratory trials and tests. In this study, a thermodynamic modeling tool developed at CompuTherm, LLC, is being used to predict β transus, phase proportions, phase chemistries, partitioning coefficients, and phase boundaries of multicomponent titanium alloys. This modeling tool includes Pandat, software for multicomponent phase equilibrium calculations, and PanTitanium, a thermodynamic database for titanium alloys. Model predictions are compared with experimental results for one α-β alloy (Ti-64) and two near-β alloys (Ti-17 and Ti-10-2-3). The alloying elements, especially the interstitial elements O, N, H, and C, have been shown to have a significant effect on the β transus temperature, and are discussed in more detail herein.
Predictive Model of Energy Consumption in Beer Production
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tiecheng Pu
2013-07-01
Full Text Available The predictive model of energy consumption is presented based on subtractive clustering and Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (for short ANFIS in the beer production. Using the subtractive clustering on the historical data of energy consumption, the limit of artificial experience is conquered while confirming the number of fuzzy rules. The parameters of the fuzzy inference system are acquired by the structure of adaptive network and hybrid on-line learning algorithm. The method can predict and guide the energy consumption of the factual production process. The reducing consumption scheme is provided based on the actual situation of the enterprise. Finally, using concrete examples verified the feasibility of this method comparing with the Radial Basis Functions (for short RBF neural network predictive model.
[Endometrial cancer: Predictive models and clinical impact].
Bendifallah, Sofiane; Ballester, Marcos; Daraï, Emile
2017-12-01
In France, in 2015, endometrial cancer (CE) is the first gynecological cancer in terms of incidence and the fourth cause of cancer of the woman. About 8151 new cases and nearly 2179 deaths have been reported. Treatments (surgery, external radiotherapy, brachytherapy and chemotherapy) are currently delivered on the basis of an estimation of the recurrence risk, an estimation of lymph node metastasis or an estimate of survival probability. This risk is determined on the basis of prognostic factors (clinical, histological, imaging, biological) taken alone or grouped together in the form of classification systems, which are currently insufficient to account for the evolutionary and prognostic heterogeneity of endometrial cancer. For endometrial cancer, the concept of mathematical modeling and its application to prediction have developed in recent years. These biomathematical tools have opened a new era of care oriented towards the promotion of targeted therapies and personalized treatments. Many predictive models have been published to estimate the risk of recurrence and lymph node metastasis, but a tiny fraction of them is sufficiently relevant and of clinical utility. The optimization tracks are multiple and varied, suggesting the possibility in the near future of a place for these mathematical models. The development of high-throughput genomics is likely to offer a more detailed molecular characterization of the disease and its heterogeneity. Copyright © 2017 Société Française du Cancer. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.
New Temperature-based Models for Predicting Global Solar Radiation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hassan, Gasser E.; Youssef, M. Elsayed; Mohamed, Zahraa E.; Ali, Mohamed A.; Hanafy, Ahmed A.
2016-01-01
Highlights: • New temperature-based models for estimating solar radiation are investigated. • The models are validated against 20-years measured data of global solar radiation. • The new temperature-based model shows the best performance for coastal sites. • The new temperature-based model is more accurate than the sunshine-based models. • The new model is highly applicable with weather temperature forecast techniques. - Abstract: This study presents new ambient-temperature-based models for estimating global solar radiation as alternatives to the widely used sunshine-based models owing to the unavailability of sunshine data at all locations around the world. Seventeen new temperature-based models are established, validated and compared with other three models proposed in the literature (the Annandale, Allen and Goodin models) to estimate the monthly average daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface. These models are developed using a 20-year measured dataset of global solar radiation for the case study location (Lat. 30°51′N and long. 29°34′E), and then, the general formulae of the newly suggested models are examined for ten different locations around Egypt. Moreover, the local formulae for the models are established and validated for two coastal locations where the general formulae give inaccurate predictions. Mostly common statistical errors are utilized to evaluate the performance of these models and identify the most accurate model. The obtained results show that the local formula for the most accurate new model provides good predictions for global solar radiation at different locations, especially at coastal sites. Moreover, the local and general formulas of the most accurate temperature-based model also perform better than the two most accurate sunshine-based models from the literature. The quick and accurate estimations of the global solar radiation using this approach can be employed in the design and evaluation of performance for
Predictive Capability Maturity Model for computational modeling and simulation.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Oberkampf, William Louis; Trucano, Timothy Guy; Pilch, Martin M.
2007-10-01
The Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) is a new model that can be used to assess the level of maturity of computational modeling and simulation (M&S) efforts. The development of the model is based on both the authors experience and their analysis of similar investigations in the past. The perspective taken in this report is one of judging the usefulness of a predictive capability that relies on the numerical solution to partial differential equations to better inform and improve decision making. The review of past investigations, such as the Software Engineering Institute's Capability Maturity Model Integration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Department of Defense Technology Readiness Levels, indicates that a more restricted, more interpretable method is needed to assess the maturity of an M&S effort. The PCMM addresses six contributing elements to M&S: (1) representation and geometric fidelity, (2) physics and material model fidelity, (3) code verification, (4) solution verification, (5) model validation, and (6) uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. For each of these elements, attributes are identified that characterize four increasing levels of maturity. Importantly, the PCMM is a structured method for assessing the maturity of an M&S effort that is directed toward an engineering application of interest. The PCMM does not assess whether the M&S effort, the accuracy of the predictions, or the performance of the engineering system satisfies or does not satisfy specified application requirements.
Predictions of models for environmental radiological assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Peres, Sueli da Silva; Lauria, Dejanira da Costa; Mahler, Claudio Fernando
2011-01-01
In the field of environmental impact assessment, models are used for estimating source term, environmental dispersion and transfer of radionuclides, exposure pathway, radiation dose and the risk for human beings Although it is recognized that the specific information of local data are important to improve the quality of the dose assessment results, in fact obtaining it can be very difficult and expensive. Sources of uncertainties are numerous, among which we can cite: the subjectivity of modelers, exposure scenarios and pathways, used codes and general parameters. The various models available utilize different mathematical approaches with different complexities that can result in different predictions. Thus, for the same inputs different models can produce very different outputs. This paper presents briefly the main advances in the field of environmental radiological assessment that aim to improve the reliability of the models used in the assessment of environmental radiological impact. The intercomparison exercise of model supplied incompatible results for 137 Cs and 60 Co, enhancing the need for developing reference methodologies for environmental radiological assessment that allow to confront dose estimations in a common comparison base. The results of the intercomparison exercise are present briefly. (author)
The predictive performance and stability of six species distribution models.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ren-Yan Duan
Full Text Available Predicting species' potential geographical range by species distribution models (SDMs is central to understand their ecological requirements. However, the effects of using different modeling techniques need further investigation. In order to improve the prediction effect, we need to assess the predictive performance and stability of different SDMs.We collected the distribution data of five common tree species (Pinus massoniana, Betula platyphylla, Quercus wutaishanica, Quercus mongolica and Quercus variabilis and simulated their potential distribution area using 13 environmental variables and six widely used SDMs: BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MAHAL, RF, MAXENT, and SVM. Each model run was repeated 100 times (trials. We compared the predictive performance by testing the consistency between observations and simulated distributions and assessed the stability by the standard deviation, coefficient of variation, and the 99% confidence interval of Kappa and AUC values.The mean values of AUC and Kappa from MAHAL, RF, MAXENT, and SVM trials were similar and significantly higher than those from BIOCLIM and DOMAIN trials (p<0.05, while the associated standard deviations and coefficients of variation were larger for BIOCLIM and DOMAIN trials (p<0.05, and the 99% confidence intervals for AUC and Kappa values were narrower for MAHAL, RF, MAXENT, and SVM. Compared to BIOCLIM and DOMAIN, other SDMs (MAHAL, RF, MAXENT, and SVM had higher prediction accuracy, smaller confidence intervals, and were more stable and less affected by the random variable (randomly selected pseudo-absence points.According to the prediction performance and stability of SDMs, we can divide these six SDMs into two categories: a high performance and stability group including MAHAL, RF, MAXENT, and SVM, and a low performance and stability group consisting of BIOCLIM, and DOMAIN. We highlight that choosing appropriate SDMs to address a specific problem is an important part of the modeling process.
Candido Dos Reis, Francisco J; Wishart, Gordon C; Dicks, Ed M; Greenberg, David; Rashbass, Jem; Schmidt, Marjanka K; van den Broek, Alexandra J; Ellis, Ian O; Green, Andrew; Rakha, Emad; Maishman, Tom; Eccles, Diana M; Pharoah, Paul D P
2017-05-22
PREDICT is a breast cancer prognostic and treatment benefit model implemented online. The overall fit of the model has been good in multiple independent case series, but PREDICT has been shown to underestimate breast cancer specific mortality in women diagnosed under the age of 40. Another limitation is the use of discrete categories for tumour size and node status resulting in 'step' changes in risk estimates on moving between categories. We have refitted the PREDICT prognostic model using the original cohort of cases from East Anglia with updated survival time in order to take into account age at diagnosis and to smooth out the survival function for tumour size and node status. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to fit separate models for ER negative and ER positive disease. Continuous variables were fitted using fractional polynomials and a smoothed baseline hazard was obtained by regressing the baseline cumulative hazard for each patients against time using fractional polynomials. The fit of the prognostic models were then tested in three independent data sets that had also been used to validate the original version of PREDICT. In the model fitting data, after adjusting for other prognostic variables, there is an increase in risk of breast cancer specific mortality in younger and older patients with ER positive disease, with a substantial increase in risk for women diagnosed before the age of 35. In ER negative disease the risk increases slightly with age. The association between breast cancer specific mortality and both tumour size and number of positive nodes was non-linear with a more marked increase in risk with increasing size and increasing number of nodes in ER positive disease. The overall calibration and discrimination of the new version of PREDICT (v2) was good and comparable to that of the previous version in both model development and validation data sets. However, the calibration of v2 improved over v1 in patients diagnosed under the age
Modelling the electrical properties of concrete for shielding effectiveness prediction
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sandrolini, L; Reggiani, U; Ogunsola, A
2007-01-01
Concrete is a porous, heterogeneous material whose abundant use in numerous applications demands a detailed understanding of its electrical properties. Besides experimental measurements, material theoretical models can be useful to investigate its behaviour with respect to frequency, moisture content or other factors. These models can be used in electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) to predict the shielding effectiveness of a concrete structure against external electromagnetic waves. This paper presents the development of a dispersive material model for concrete out of experimental measurement data to take account of the frequency dependence of concrete's electrical properties. The model is implemented into a numerical simulator and compared with the classical transmission-line approach in shielding effectiveness calculations of simple concrete walls of different moisture content. The comparative results show good agreement in all cases; a possible relation between shielding effectiveness and the electrical properties of concrete and the limits of the proposed model are discussed
Modelling the electrical properties of concrete for shielding effectiveness prediction
Sandrolini, L.; Reggiani, U.; Ogunsola, A.
2007-09-01
Concrete is a porous, heterogeneous material whose abundant use in numerous applications demands a detailed understanding of its electrical properties. Besides experimental measurements, material theoretical models can be useful to investigate its behaviour with respect to frequency, moisture content or other factors. These models can be used in electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) to predict the shielding effectiveness of a concrete structure against external electromagnetic waves. This paper presents the development of a dispersive material model for concrete out of experimental measurement data to take account of the frequency dependence of concrete's electrical properties. The model is implemented into a numerical simulator and compared with the classical transmission-line approach in shielding effectiveness calculations of simple concrete walls of different moisture content. The comparative results show good agreement in all cases; a possible relation between shielding effectiveness and the electrical properties of concrete and the limits of the proposed model are discussed.
Nonlinear Economic Model Predictive Control Strategy for Active Smart Buildings
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Santos, Rui Mirra; Zong, Yi; Sousa, Joao M. C.
2016-01-01
Nowadays, the development of advanced and innovative intelligent control techniques for energy management in buildings is a key issue within the smart grid topic. A nonlinear economic model predictive control (EMPC) scheme, based on the branch-and-bound tree search used as optimization algorithm...... for solving the nonconvex optimization problem is proposed in this paper. A simulation using the nonlinear model-based controller to control the temperature levels of an intelligent office building (PowerFlexHouse) is addressed. Its performance is compared with a linear model-based controller. The nonlinear...
Predicting Power Outages Using Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts
Cerrai, D.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Yang, J.; Astitha, M.
2017-12-01
Power outages affect every year millions of people in the United States, affecting the economy and conditioning the everyday life. An Outage Prediction Model (OPM) has been developed at the University of Connecticut for helping utilities to quickly restore outages and to limit their adverse consequences on the population. The OPM, operational since 2015, combines several non-parametric machine learning (ML) models that use historical weather storm simulations and high-resolution weather forecasts, satellite remote sensing data, and infrastructure and land cover data to predict the number and spatial distribution of power outages. A new methodology, developed for improving the outage model performances by combining weather- and soil-related variables using three different weather models (WRF 3.7, WRF 3.8 and RAMS/ICLAMS), will be presented in this study. First, we will present a performance evaluation of each model variable, by comparing historical weather analyses with station data or reanalysis over the entire storm data set. Hence, each variable of the new outage model version is extracted from the best performing weather model for that variable, and sensitivity tests are performed for investigating the most efficient variable combination for outage prediction purposes. Despite that the final variables combination is extracted from different weather models, this ensemble based on multi-weather forcing and multi-statistical model power outage prediction outperforms the currently operational OPM version that is based on a single weather forcing variable (WRF 3.7), because each model component is the closest to the actual atmospheric state.
Effect on Prediction when Modeling Covariates in Bayesian Nonparametric Models.
Cruz-Marcelo, Alejandro; Rosner, Gary L; Müller, Peter; Stewart, Clinton F
2013-04-01
In biomedical research, it is often of interest to characterize biologic processes giving rise to observations and to make predictions of future observations. Bayesian nonparametric methods provide a means for carrying out Bayesian inference making as few assumptions about restrictive parametric models as possible. There are several proposals in the literature for extending Bayesian nonparametric models to include dependence on covariates. Limited attention, however, has been directed to the following two aspects. In this article, we examine the effect on fitting and predictive performance of incorporating covariates in a class of Bayesian nonparametric models by one of two primary ways: either in the weights or in the locations of a discrete random probability measure. We show that different strategies for incorporating continuous covariates in Bayesian nonparametric models can result in big differences when used for prediction, even though they lead to otherwise similar posterior inferences. When one needs the predictive density, as in optimal design, and this density is a mixture, it is better to make the weights depend on the covariates. We demonstrate these points via a simulated data example and in an application in which one wants to determine the optimal dose of an anticancer drug used in pediatric oncology.
Huang, Shaobo; Fang, Ning
2013-01-01
Predicting student academic performance has long been an important research topic in many academic disciplines. The present study is the first study that develops and compares four types of mathematical models to predict student academic performance in engineering dynamics--a high-enrollment, high-impact, and core course that many engineering…
Error analysis of short term wind power prediction models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
De Giorgi, Maria Grazia; Ficarella, Antonio; Tarantino, Marco
2011-01-01
The integration of wind farms in power networks has become an important problem. This is because the electricity produced cannot be preserved because of the high cost of storage and electricity production must follow market demand. Short-long-range wind forecasting over different lengths/periods of time is becoming an important process for the management of wind farms. Time series modelling of wind speeds is based upon the valid assumption that all the causative factors are implicitly accounted for in the sequence of occurrence of the process itself. Hence time series modelling is equivalent to physical modelling. Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) models, which perform a linear mapping between inputs and outputs, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS), which perform a non-linear mapping, provide a robust approach to wind power prediction. In this work, these models are developed in order to forecast power production of a wind farm with three wind turbines, using real load data and comparing different time prediction periods. This comparative analysis takes in the first time, various forecasting methods, time horizons and a deep performance analysis focused upon the normalised mean error and the statistical distribution hereof in order to evaluate error distribution within a narrower curve and therefore forecasting methods whereby it is more improbable to make errors in prediction. (author)
Intra prediction based on Markov process modeling of images.
Kamisli, Fatih
2013-10-01
In recent video coding standards, intraprediction of a block of pixels is performed by copying neighbor pixels of the block along an angular direction inside the block. Each block pixel is predicted from only one or few directionally aligned neighbor pixels of the block. Although this is a computationally efficient approach, it ignores potentially useful correlation of other neighbor pixels of the block. To use this correlation, a general linear prediction approach is proposed, where each block pixel is predicted using a weighted sum of all neighbor pixels of the block. The disadvantage of this approach is the increased complexity because of the large number of weights. In this paper, we propose an alternative approach to intraprediction, where we model image pixels with a Markov process. The Markov process model accounts for the ignored correlation in standard intraprediction methods, but uses few neighbor pixels and enables a computationally efficient recursive prediction algorithm. Compared with the general linear prediction approach that has a large number of independent weights, the Markov process modeling approach uses a much smaller number of independent parameters and thus offers significantly reduced memory or computation requirements, while achieving similar coding gains with offline computed parameters.
Fuzzy regression modeling for tool performance prediction and degradation detection.
Li, X; Er, M J; Lim, B S; Zhou, J H; Gan, O P; Rutkowski, L
2010-10-01
In this paper, the viability of using Fuzzy-Rule-Based Regression Modeling (FRM) algorithm for tool performance and degradation detection is investigated. The FRM is developed based on a multi-layered fuzzy-rule-based hybrid system with Multiple Regression Models (MRM) embedded into a fuzzy logic inference engine that employs Self Organizing Maps (SOM) for clustering. The FRM converts a complex nonlinear problem to a simplified linear format in order to further increase the accuracy in prediction and rate of convergence. The efficacy of the proposed FRM is tested through a case study - namely to predict the remaining useful life of a ball nose milling cutter during a dry machining process of hardened tool steel with a hardness of 52-54 HRc. A comparative study is further made between four predictive models using the same set of experimental data. It is shown that the FRM is superior as compared with conventional MRM, Back Propagation Neural Networks (BPNN) and Radial Basis Function Networks (RBFN) in terms of prediction accuracy and learning speed.
Mathematical models for indoor radon prediction
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Malanca, A.; Pessina, V.; Dallara, G.
1995-01-01
It is known that the indoor radon (Rn) concentration can be predicted by means of mathematical models. The simplest model relies on two variables only: the Rn source strength and the air exchange rate. In the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) model several environmental parameters are combined into a complex equation; besides, a correlation between the ventilation rate and the Rn entry rate from the soil is admitted. The measurements were carried out using activated carbon canisters. Seventy-five measurements of Rn concentrations were made inside two rooms placed on the second floor of a building block. One of the rooms had a single-glazed window whereas the other room had a double pane window. During three different experimental protocols, the mean Rn concentration was always higher into the room with a double-glazed window. That behavior can be accounted for by the simplest model. A further set of 450 Rn measurements was collected inside a ground-floor room with a grounding well in it. This trend maybe accounted for by the LBL model
A Predictive Maintenance Model for Railway Tracks
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Li, Rui; Wen, Min; Salling, Kim Bang
2015-01-01
presents a mathematical model based on Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) which is designed to optimize the predictive railway tamping activities for ballasted track for the time horizon up to four years. The objective function is setup to minimize the actual costs for the tamping machine (measured by time......). Five technical and economic aspects are taken into account to schedule tamping: (1) track degradation of the standard deviation of the longitudinal level over time; (2) track geometrical alignment; (3) track quality thresholds based on the train speed limits; (4) the dependency of the track quality...... recovery on the track quality after tamping operation and (5) Tamping machine operation factors. A Danish railway track between Odense and Fredericia with 57.2 km of length is applied for a time period of two to four years in the proposed maintenance model. The total cost can be reduced with up to 50...
Predicting third molar surgery operative time: a validated model.
Susarla, Srinivas M; Dodson, Thomas B
2013-01-01
The purpose of the present study was to develop and validate a statistical model to predict third molar (M3) operative time. This was a prospective cohort study consisting of a sample of subjects presenting for M3 removal. The demographic, anatomic, and operative variables were recorded for each subject. Using an index sample of randomly selected subjects, a multiple linear regression model was generated to predict the operating time. A nonoverlapping group of randomly selected subjects (validation sample) was used to assess model accuracy. P≤.05 was considered significant. The sample was composed of 150 subjects (n) who had 450 (k) M3s removed. The index sample (n=100 subjects, k=313 M3s extracted) had a mean age of 25.4±10.0 years. The mean extraction time was 6.4±7.0 minutes. The multiple linear regression model included M3 location, Winter's classification, tooth morphology, number of teeth extracted, procedure type, and surgical experience (R2=0.58). No statistically significant differences were seen between the index sample and the validation sample (n=50, k=137) for any of the study variables. Compared with the index model, the β-coefficients of the validation model were similar in direction and magnitude for most variables. Compared with the observed extraction time for all teeth in the sample, the predicted extraction time was not significantly different (P=.16). Fair agreement was seen between the β-coefficients for our multiple models in the index and validation populations, with no significant difference in the predicted and observed operating times. Copyright © 2013 American Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Models to predict the start of the airborne pollen season
Siniscalco, Consolata; Caramiello, Rosanna; Migliavacca, Mirco; Busetto, Lorenzo; Mercalli, Luca; Colombo, Roberto; Richardson, Andrew D.
2015-07-01
Aerobiological data can be used as indirect but reliable measures of flowering phenology to analyze the response of plant species to ongoing climate changes. The aims of this study are to evaluate the performance of several phenological models for predicting the pollen start of season (PSS) in seven spring-flowering trees ( Alnus glutinosa, Acer negundo, Carpinus betulus, Platanus occidentalis, Juglans nigra, Alnus viridis, and Castanea sativa) and in two summer-flowering herbaceous species ( Artemisia vulgaris and Ambrosia artemisiifolia) by using a 26-year aerobiological data set collected in Turin (Northern Italy). Data showed a reduced interannual variability of the PSS in the summer-flowering species compared to the spring-flowering ones. Spring warming models with photoperiod limitation performed best for the greater majority of the studied species, while chilling class models were selected only for the early spring flowering species. For Ambrosia and Artemisia, spring warming models were also selected as the best models, indicating that temperature sums are positively related to flowering. However, the poor variance explained by the models suggests that further analyses have to be carried out in order to develop better models for predicting the PSS in these two species. Modeling the pollen season start on a very wide data set provided a new opportunity to highlight the limits of models in elucidating the environmental factors driving the pollen season start when some factors are always fulfilled, as chilling or photoperiod or when the variance is very poor and is not explained by the models.
Recent Advances in Explicit Multiparametric Nonlinear Model Predictive Control
Domínguez, Luis F.
2011-01-19
In this paper we present recent advances in multiparametric nonlinear programming (mp-NLP) algorithms for explicit nonlinear model predictive control (mp-NMPC). Three mp-NLP algorithms for NMPC are discussed, based on which novel mp-NMPC controllers are derived. The performance of the explicit controllers are then tested and compared in a simulation example involving the operation of a continuous stirred-tank reactor (CSTR). © 2010 American Chemical Society.
Lee, Seung-Mi; Kang, Jin-Oh; Suh, Yong-Moo
2004-10-01
Analysis and prediction of the care charges related to colorectal cancer in Korea are important for the allocation of medical resources and the establishment of medical policies because the incidence and the hospital charges for colorectal cancer are rapidly increasing. But the previous studies based on statistical analysis to predict the hospital charges for patients did not show satisfactory results. Recently, data mining emerges as a new technique to extract knowledge from the huge and diverse medical data. Thus, we built models using data mining techniques to predict hospital charge for the patients. A total of 1,022 admission records with 154 variables of 492 patients were used to build prediction models who had been treated from 1999 to 2002 in the Kyung Hee University Hospital. We built an artificial neural network (ANN) model and a classification and regression tree (CART) model, and compared their prediction accuracy. Linear correlation coefficients were high in both models and the mean absolute errors were similar. But ANN models showed a better linear correlation than CART model (0.813 vs. 0.713 for the hospital charge paid by insurance and 0.746 vs. 0.720 for the hospital charge paid by patients). We suggest that ANN model has a better performance to predict charges of colorectal cancer patients.
Sjögren, Erik; Thörn, Helena; Tannergren, Christer
2016-06-06
Gastrointestinal (GI) drug absorption is a complex process determined by formulation, physicochemical and biopharmaceutical factors, and GI physiology. Physiologically based in silico absorption models have emerged as a widely used and promising supplement to traditional in vitro assays and preclinical in vivo studies. However, there remains a lack of comparative studies between different models. The aim of this study was to explore the strengths and limitations of the in silico absorption models Simcyp 13.1, GastroPlus 8.0, and GI-Sim 4.1, with respect to their performance in predicting human intestinal drug absorption. This was achieved by adopting an a priori modeling approach and using well-defined input data for 12 drugs associated with incomplete GI absorption and related challenges in predicting the extent of absorption. This approach better mimics the real situation during formulation development where predictive in silico models would be beneficial. Plasma concentration-time profiles for 44 oral drug administrations were calculated by convolution of model-predicted absorption-time profiles and reported pharmacokinetic parameters. Model performance was evaluated by comparing the predicted plasma concentration-time profiles, Cmax, tmax, and exposure (AUC) with observations from clinical studies. The overall prediction accuracies for AUC, given as the absolute average fold error (AAFE) values, were 2.2, 1.6, and 1.3 for Simcyp, GastroPlus, and GI-Sim, respectively. The corresponding AAFE values for Cmax were 2.2, 1.6, and 1.3, respectively, and those for tmax were 1.7, 1.5, and 1.4, respectively. Simcyp was associated with underprediction of AUC and Cmax; the accuracy decreased with decreasing predicted fabs. A tendency for underprediction was also observed for GastroPlus, but there was no correlation with predicted fabs. There were no obvious trends for over- or underprediction for GI-Sim. The models performed similarly in capturing dependencies on dose and
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Jørgensen, Sten Bay
2007-01-01
A Prediction-error-method tailored for model based predictive control is presented. The prediction-error method studied are based on predictions using the Kalman filter and Kalman predictors for a linear discrete-time stochastic state space model. The linear discrete-time stochastic state space...... model is realized from a continuous-discrete-time linear stochastic system specified using transfer functions with time-delays. It is argued that the prediction-error criterion should be selected such that it is compatible with the objective function of the predictive controller in which the model...
Human Posture and Movement Prediction based on Musculoskeletal Modeling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Farahani, Saeed Davoudabadi
2014-01-01
Abstract This thesis explores an optimization-based formulation, so-called inverse-inverse dynamics, for the prediction of human posture and motion dynamics performing various tasks. It is explained how this technique enables us to predict natural kinematic and kinetic patterns for human posture...... and motion using AnyBody Modeling System (AMS). AMS uses inverse dynamics to analyze musculoskeletal systems and is, therefore, limited by its dependency on input kinematics. We propose to alleviate this dependency by assuming that voluntary postures and movement strategies in humans are guided by a desire...... specifications. The model is then scaled to the desired anthropometric data by means of one of the existing scaling law in AMS. If the simulation results are to be compared with the experimental measurements, the model should be scaled to match the involved subjects. Depending on the scientific question...
Construction Worker Fatigue Prediction Model Based on System Dynamic
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wahyu Adi Tri Joko
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Construction accident can be caused by internal and external factors such as worker fatigue and unsafe project environment. Tight schedule of construction project forcing construction worker to work overtime in long period. This situation leads to worker fatigue. This paper proposes a model to predict construction worker fatigue based on system dynamic (SD. System dynamic is used to represent correlation among internal and external factors and to simulate level of worker fatigue. To validate the model, 93 construction workers whom worked in a high rise building construction projects, were used as case study. The result shows that excessive workload, working elevation and age, are the main factors lead to construction worker fatigue. Simulation result also shows that these factors can increase worker fatigue level to 21.2% times compared to normal condition. Beside predicting worker fatigue level this model can also be used as early warning system to prevent construction worker accident
A multifactorial falls risk prediction model for hospitalized older adults.
GholamHosseini, Hamid; Baig, Mirza Mansoor; Connolly, Martin J; Lindén, Maria
2014-01-01
Ageing population worldwide has grown fast with more cases of chronic illnesses and co-morbidity, involving higher healthcare costs. Falls are one of the leading causes of unintentional injury-related deaths in older adults. The aim of this study was to develop a robust multifactorial model toward the falls risk prediction. The proposed model employs real-time vital signs, motion data, falls history and muscle strength. Moreover, it identifies high-risk individuals for the development falls in their activity of daily living (ADL). The falls risk prediction model has been tested at a controlled-environment in hospital with 30 patients and compared with the results from the Morse fall scale. The simulated results show the proposed algorithm achieved an accuracy of 98%, sensitivity of 96% and specificity of 100% among a total of 80 intentional falls and 40 ADLs. The ultimate aim of this study is to extend the application to elderly home care and monitoring.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hogan David B
2012-09-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Few studies have directly compared the competing approaches to identifying frailty in more vulnerable older populations. We examined the ability of two versions of a frailty index (43 vs. 83 items, the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS frailty criteria, and the CHESS scale to accurately predict the occurrence of three outcomes among Assisted Living (AL residents followed over one year. Methods The three frailty measures and the CHESS scale were derived from assessment items completed among 1,066 AL residents (aged 65+ participating in the Alberta Continuing Care Epidemiological Studies (ACCES. Adjusted risks of one-year mortality, hospitalization and long-term care placement were estimated for those categorized as frail or pre-frail compared with non-frail (or at high/intermediate vs. low risk on CHESS. The area under the ROC curve (AUC was calculated for select models to assess the predictive accuracy of the different frailty measures and CHESS scale in relation to the three outcomes examined. Results Frail subjects defined by the three approaches and those at high risk for decline on CHESS showed a statistically significant increased risk for death and long-term care placement compared with those categorized as either not frail or at low risk for decline. The risk estimates for hospitalization associated with the frailty measures and CHESS were generally weaker with one of the frailty indices (43 items showing no significant association. For death and long-term care placement, the addition of frailty (however derived or CHESS significantly improved on the AUC obtained with a model including only age, sex and co-morbidity, though the magnitude of improvement was sometimes small. The different frailty/risk models did not differ significantly from each other in predicting mortality or hospitalization; however, one of the frailty indices (83 items showed significantly better performance over the other measures in predicting long
Hogan, David B; Freiheit, Elizabeth A; Strain, Laurel A; Patten, Scott B; Schmaltz, Heidi N; Rolfson, Darryl; Maxwell, Colleen J
2012-09-14
Few studies have directly compared the competing approaches to identifying frailty in more vulnerable older populations. We examined the ability of two versions of a frailty index (43 vs. 83 items), the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) frailty criteria, and the CHESS scale to accurately predict the occurrence of three outcomes among Assisted Living (AL) residents followed over one year. The three frailty measures and the CHESS scale were derived from assessment items completed among 1,066 AL residents (aged 65+) participating in the Alberta Continuing Care Epidemiological Studies (ACCES). Adjusted risks of one-year mortality, hospitalization and long-term care placement were estimated for those categorized as frail or pre-frail compared with non-frail (or at high/intermediate vs. low risk on CHESS). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was calculated for select models to assess the predictive accuracy of the different frailty measures and CHESS scale in relation to the three outcomes examined. Frail subjects defined by the three approaches and those at high risk for decline on CHESS showed a statistically significant increased risk for death and long-term care placement compared with those categorized as either not frail or at low risk for decline. The risk estimates for hospitalization associated with the frailty measures and CHESS were generally weaker with one of the frailty indices (43 items) showing no significant association. For death and long-term care placement, the addition of frailty (however derived) or CHESS significantly improved on the AUC obtained with a model including only age, sex and co-morbidity, though the magnitude of improvement was sometimes small. The different frailty/risk models did not differ significantly from each other in predicting mortality or hospitalization; however, one of the frailty indices (83 items) showed significantly better performance over the other measures in predicting long-term care placement. Using different
Durability and life prediction modeling in polyimide composites
Binienda, Wieslaw K.
1995-01-01
Sudden appearance of cracks on a macroscopically smooth surface of brittle materials due to cooling or drying shrinkage is a phenomenon related to many engineering problems. Although conventional strength theories can be used to predict the necessary condition for crack appearance, they are unable to predict crack spacing and depth. On the other hand, fracture mechanics theory can only study the behavior of existing cracks. The theory of crack initiation can be summarized into three conditions, which is a combination of a strength criterion and laws of energy conservation, the average crack spacing and depth can thus be determined. The problem of crack initiation from the surface of an elastic half plane is solved and compares quite well with available experimental evidence. The theory of crack initiation is also applied to concrete pavements. The influence of cracking is modeled by the additional compliance according to Okamura's method. The theoretical prediction by this structural mechanics type of model correlates very well with the field observation. The model may serve as a theoretical foundation for future pavement joint design. The initiation of interactive cracks of quasi-brittle material is studied based on a theory of cohesive crack model. These cracks may grow simultaneously, or some of them may close during certain stages. The concept of crack unloading of cohesive crack model is proposed. The critical behavior (crack bifurcation, maximum loads) of the cohesive crack model are characterized by rate equations. The post-critical behavior of crack initiation is also studied.
Ground Motion Prediction Model Using Artificial Neural Network
Dhanya, J.; Raghukanth, S. T. G.
2018-03-01
This article focuses on developing a ground motion prediction equation based on artificial neural network (ANN) technique for shallow crustal earthquakes. A hybrid technique combining genetic algorithm and Levenberg-Marquardt technique is used for training the model. The present model is developed to predict peak ground velocity, and 5% damped spectral acceleration. The input parameters for the prediction are moment magnitude ( M w), closest distance to rupture plane ( R rup), shear wave velocity in the region ( V s30) and focal mechanism ( F). A total of 13,552 ground motion records from 288 earthquakes provided by the updated NGA-West2 database released by Pacific Engineering Research Center are utilized to develop the model. The ANN architecture considered for the model consists of 192 unknowns including weights and biases of all the interconnected nodes. The performance of the model is observed to be within the prescribed error limits. In addition, the results from the study are found to be comparable with the existing relations in the global database. The developed model is further demonstrated by estimating site-specific response spectra for Shimla city located in Himalayan region.
Ground Motion Prediction Model Using Artificial Neural Network
Dhanya, J.; Raghukanth, S. T. G.
2017-12-01
This article focuses on developing a ground motion prediction equation based on artificial neural network (ANN) technique for shallow crustal earthquakes. A hybrid technique combining genetic algorithm and Levenberg-Marquardt technique is used for training the model. The present model is developed to predict peak ground velocity, and 5% damped spectral acceleration. The input parameters for the prediction are moment magnitude (M w), closest distance to rupture plane (R rup), shear wave velocity in the region (V s30) and focal mechanism (F). A total of 13,552 ground motion records from 288 earthquakes provided by the updated NGA-West2 database released by Pacific Engineering Research Center are utilized to develop the model. The ANN architecture considered for the model consists of 192 unknowns including weights and biases of all the interconnected nodes. The performance of the model is observed to be within the prescribed error limits. In addition, the results from the study are found to be comparable with the existing relations in the global database. The developed model is further demonstrated by estimating site-specific response spectra for Shimla city located in Himalayan region.
Predictive model for the diagnosis of tuberculous pleural effusion
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Denise Duprat Neves
Full Text Available This study developed a predictive model to identify pleural tuberculosis. A consecutive cases study of patients investigating the cause of pleural effusion, in an area of high prevalence of tuberculosis (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Clinical and laboratory variables were compared among patients with tuberculosis (TB and without tuberculosis (NTB, individually and using logistic regression. The performance was described as diagnostic accuracy, compared to a gold standard in a masked way. We have studied 104 TB patients, 41 with malignant, 29 transudates, 28 parapneumonic, 13 with miscellaneous diseases. After identification of individual discrimination power aided by clinical, radiological and laboratory variables, the following ones were included in a multivariate analysis: ADA, total leukocytes, percentile of lymphocytes, protein, lactate dehydrogenase, duration of disease, age and gender. A logistic regression model to predict pleural tuberculosis including the five first variables showed the best performance. A receiver operating characteristic curve identified the best cutoff at 0.7, resulting in a sensitivity and specificity of more then 95%. The predictive model improved the specificity of ADA alone, keeping its sensitivity. This model seems helpful when a microbiological or histological diagnosis of pleural tuberculosis could not be established. External validation of these results is necessary before recommendation for routine application.
Predictive Modelling of Contagious Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon
Rosa, Isabel M. D.; Purves, Drew; Souza, Carlos; Ewers, Robert M.
2013-01-01
Tropical forests are diminishing in extent due primarily to the rapid expansion of agriculture, but the future magnitude and geographical distribution of future tropical deforestation is uncertain. Here, we introduce a dynamic and spatially-explicit model of deforestation that predicts the potential magnitude and spatial pattern of Amazon deforestation. Our model differs from previous models in three ways: (1) it is probabilistic and quantifies uncertainty around predictions and parameters; (2) the overall deforestation rate emerges “bottom up”, as the sum of local-scale deforestation driven by local processes; and (3) deforestation is contagious, such that local deforestation rate increases through time if adjacent locations are deforested. For the scenarios evaluated–pre- and post-PPCDAM (“Plano de Ação para Proteção e Controle do Desmatamento na Amazônia”)–the parameter estimates confirmed that forests near roads and already deforested areas are significantly more likely to be deforested in the near future and less likely in protected areas. Validation tests showed that our model correctly predicted the magnitude and spatial pattern of deforestation that accumulates over time, but that there is very high uncertainty surrounding the exact sequence in which pixels are deforested. The model predicts that under pre-PPCDAM (assuming no change in parameter values due to, for example, changes in government policy), annual deforestation rates would halve between 2050 compared to 2002, although this partly reflects reliance on a static map of the road network. Consistent with other models, under the pre-PPCDAM scenario, states in the south and east of the Brazilian Amazon have a high predicted probability of losing nearly all forest outside of protected areas by 2050. This pattern is less strong in the post-PPCDAM scenario. Contagious spread along roads and through areas lacking formal protection could allow deforestation to reach the core, which is
Predictive modelling of contagious deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon.
Rosa, Isabel M D; Purves, Drew; Souza, Carlos; Ewers, Robert M
2013-01-01
Tropical forests are diminishing in extent due primarily to the rapid expansion of agriculture, but the future magnitude and geographical distribution of future tropical deforestation is uncertain. Here, we introduce a dynamic and spatially-explicit model of deforestation that predicts the potential magnitude and spatial pattern of Amazon deforestation. Our model differs from previous models in three ways: (1) it is probabilistic and quantifies uncertainty around predictions and parameters; (2) the overall deforestation rate emerges "bottom up", as the sum of local-scale deforestation driven by local processes; and (3) deforestation is contagious, such that local deforestation rate increases through time if adjacent locations are deforested. For the scenarios evaluated-pre- and post-PPCDAM ("Plano de Ação para Proteção e Controle do Desmatamento na Amazônia")-the parameter estimates confirmed that forests near roads and already deforested areas are significantly more likely to be deforested in the near future and less likely in protected areas. Validation tests showed that our model correctly predicted the magnitude and spatial pattern of deforestation that accumulates over time, but that there is very high uncertainty surrounding the exact sequence in which pixels are deforested. The model predicts that under pre-PPCDAM (assuming no change in parameter values due to, for example, changes in government policy), annual deforestation rates would halve between 2050 compared to 2002, although this partly reflects reliance on a static map of the road network. Consistent with other models, under the pre-PPCDAM scenario, states in the south and east of the Brazilian Amazon have a high predicted probability of losing nearly all forest outside of protected areas by 2050. This pattern is less strong in the post-PPCDAM scenario. Contagious spread along roads and through areas lacking formal protection could allow deforestation to reach the core, which is currently
Numerical comparisons of ground motion predictions with kinematic rupture modeling
Yuan, Y. O.; Zurek, B.; Liu, F.; deMartin, B.; Lacasse, M. D.
2017-12-01
Recent advances in large-scale wave simulators allow for the computation of seismograms at unprecedented levels of detail and for areas sufficiently large to be relevant to small regional studies. In some instances, detailed information of the mechanical properties of the subsurface has been obtained from seismic exploration surveys, well data, and core analysis. Using kinematic rupture modeling, this information can be used with a wave propagation simulator to predict the ground motion that would result from an assumed fault rupture. The purpose of this work is to explore the limits of wave propagation simulators for modeling ground motion in different settings, and in particular, to explore the numerical accuracy of different methods in the presence of features that are challenging to simulate such as topography, low-velocity surface layers, and shallow sources. In the main part of this work, we use a variety of synthetic three-dimensional models and compare the relative costs and benefits of different numerical discretization methods in computing the seismograms of realistic-size models. The finite-difference method, the discontinuous-Galerkin method, and the spectral-element method are compared for a range of synthetic models having different levels of complexity such as topography, large subsurface features, low-velocity surface layers, and the location and characteristics of fault ruptures represented as an array of seismic sources. While some previous studies have already demonstrated that unstructured-mesh methods can sometimes tackle complex problems (Moczo et al.), we investigate the trade-off between unstructured-mesh methods and regular-grid methods for a broad range of models and source configurations. Finally, for comparison, our direct simulation results are briefly contrasted with those predicted by a few phenomenological ground-motion prediction equations, and a workflow for accurately predicting ground motion is proposed.
Regression Model to Predict Global Solar Irradiance in Malaysia
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hairuniza Ahmed Kutty
2015-01-01
Full Text Available A novel regression model is developed to estimate the monthly global solar irradiance in Malaysia. The model is developed based on different available meteorological parameters, including temperature, cloud cover, rain precipitate, relative humidity, wind speed, pressure, and gust speed, by implementing regression analysis. This paper reports on the details of the analysis of the effect of each prediction parameter to identify the parameters that are relevant to estimating global solar irradiance. In addition, the proposed model is compared in terms of the root mean square error (RMSE, mean bias error (MBE, and the coefficient of determination (R2 with other models available from literature studies. Seven models based on single parameters (PM1 to PM7 and five multiple-parameter models (PM7 to PM12 are proposed. The new models perform well, with RMSE ranging from 0.429% to 1.774%, R2 ranging from 0.942 to 0.992, and MBE ranging from −0.1571% to 0.6025%. In general, cloud cover significantly affects the estimation of global solar irradiance. However, cloud cover in Malaysia lacks sufficient influence when included into multiple-parameter models although it performs fairly well in single-parameter prediction models.
Srinivasan, M; Shetty, N; Gadekari, S; Thunga, G; Rao, K; Kunhikatta, V
2017-07-01
Severity or mortality prediction of nosocomial pneumonia could aid in the effective triage of patients and assisting physicians. To compare various severity assessment scoring systems for predicting intensive care unit (ICU) mortality in nosocomial pneumonia patients. A prospective cohort study was conducted in a tertiary care university-affiliated hospital in Manipal, India. One hundred patients with nosocomial pneumonia, admitted in the ICUs who developed pneumonia after >48h of admission, were included. The Nosocomial Pneumonia Mortality Prediction (NPMP) model, developed in our hospital, was compared with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), Mortality Probability Model II (MPM 72 II), Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II), Multiple Organ Dysfunction Score (MODS), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Clinical Pulmonary Infection Score (CPIS), Ventilator-Associated Pneumonia Predisposition, Insult, Response, Organ dysfunction (VAP-PIRO). Data and clinical variables were collected on the day of pneumonia diagnosis. The outcome for the study was ICU mortality. The sensitivity and specificity of the various scoring systems was analysed by plotting receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and computing the area under the curve for each of the mortality predicting tools. NPMP, APACHE II, SAPS II, MPM 72 II, SOFA, and VAP-PIRO were found to have similar and acceptable discrimination power as assessed by the area under the ROC curve. The AUC values for the above scores ranged from 0.735 to 0.762. CPIS and MODS showed least discrimination. NPMP is a specific tool to predict mortality in nosocomial pneumonia and is comparable to other standard scores. Copyright © 2017 The Healthcare Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Models for predicting objective function weights in prostate cancer IMRT
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Boutilier, Justin J.; Lee, Taewoo; Craig, Tim; Sharpe, Michael B.; Chan, Timothy C. Y.
2015-01-01
Purpose: To develop and evaluate the clinical applicability of advanced machine learning models that simultaneously predict multiple optimization objective function weights from patient geometry for intensity-modulated radiation therapy of prostate cancer. Methods: A previously developed inverse optimization method was applied retrospectively to determine optimal objective function weights for 315 treated patients. The authors used an overlap volume ratio (OV) of bladder and rectum for different PTV expansions and overlap volume histogram slopes (OVSR and OVSB for the rectum and bladder, respectively) as explanatory variables that quantify patient geometry. Using the optimal weights as ground truth, the authors trained and applied three prediction models: logistic regression (LR), multinomial logistic regression (MLR), and weighted K-nearest neighbor (KNN). The population average of the optimal objective function weights was also calculated. Results: The OV at 0.4 cm and OVSR at 0.1 cm features were found to be the most predictive of the weights. The authors observed comparable performance (i.e., no statistically significant difference) between LR, MLR, and KNN methodologies, with LR appearing to perform the best. All three machine learning models outperformed the population average by a statistically significant amount over a range of clinical metrics including bladder/rectum V53Gy, bladder/rectum V70Gy, and dose to the bladder, rectum, CTV, and PTV. When comparing the weights directly, the LR model predicted bladder and rectum weights that had, on average, a 73% and 74% relative improvement over the population average weights, respectively. The treatment plans resulting from the LR weights had, on average, a rectum V70Gy that was 35% closer to the clinical plan and a bladder V70Gy that was 29% closer, compared to the population average weights. Similar results were observed for all other clinical metrics. Conclusions: The authors demonstrated that the KNN and MLR
Boogaard, M.W. van den; Pickkers, P.; Slooter, A.J.; Kuiper, M.A.; Spronk, P.E.; Voort, P.H. van der; Hoeven, J.G. van der; Donders, R.; Achterberg, T. van; Schoonhoven, L.
2012-01-01
OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a delirium prediction model for adult intensive care patients and determine its additional value compared with prediction by caregivers. DESIGN: Observational multicentre study. SETTING: Five intensive care units in the Netherlands (two university hospitals and
D. Nieboer (Daan); Y. Vergouwe (Yvonne); M.J. Roobol-Bouts (Monique); D. Ankerst (Donna); M.W. Kattan (Michael); A.J. Vickers (Andrew); E.W. Steyerberg (Ewout)
2015-01-01
textabstractAbstract Objectives We aimed to compare nonlinear modeling methods for handling continuous predictors for reproducibility and transportability of prediction models. Study Design and Setting We analyzed four cohorts of previously unscreened men who underwent prostate biopsy for diagnosing
Comparison of joint modeling and landmarking for dynamic prediction under an illness-death model.
Suresh, Krithika; Taylor, Jeremy M G; Spratt, Daniel E; Daignault, Stephanie; Tsodikov, Alexander
2017-11-01
Dynamic prediction incorporates time-dependent marker information accrued during follow-up to improve personalized survival prediction probabilities. At any follow-up, or "landmark", time, the residual time distribution for an individual, conditional on their updated marker values, can be used to produce a dynamic prediction. To satisfy a consistency condition that links dynamic predictions at different time points, the residual time distribution must follow from a prediction function that models the joint distribution of the marker process and time to failure, such as a joint model. To circumvent the assumptions and computational burden associated with a joint model, approximate methods for dynamic prediction have been proposed. One such method is landmarking, which fits a Cox model at a sequence of landmark times, and thus is not a comprehensive probability model of the marker process and the event time. Considering an illness-death model, we derive the residual time distribution and demonstrate that the structure of the Cox model baseline hazard and covariate effects under the landmarking approach do not have simple form. We suggest some extensions of the landmark Cox model that should provide a better approximation. We compare the performance of the landmark models with joint models using simulation studies and cognitive aging data from the PAQUID study. We examine the predicted probabilities produced under both methods using data from a prostate cancer study, where metastatic clinical failure is a time-dependent covariate for predicting death following radiation therapy. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.
A joint calibration model for combining predictive distributions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Patrizia Agati
2013-05-01
Full Text Available In many research fields, as for example in probabilistic weather forecasting, valuable predictive information about a future random phenomenon may come from several, possibly heterogeneous, sources. Forecast combining methods have been developed over the years in order to deal with ensembles of sources: the aim is to combine several predictions in such a way to improve forecast accuracy and reduce risk of bad forecasts.In this context, we propose the use of a Bayesian approach to information combining, which consists in treating the predictive probability density functions (pdfs from the individual ensemble members as data in a Bayesian updating problem. The likelihood function is shown to be proportional to the product of the pdfs, adjusted by a joint “calibration function” describing the predicting skill of the sources (Morris, 1977. In this paper, after rephrasing Morris’ algorithm in a predictive context, we propose to model the calibration function in terms of bias, scale and correlation and to estimate its parameters according to the least squares criterion. The performance of our method is investigated and compared with that of Bayesian Model Averaging (Raftery, 2005 on simulated data.
Heuristic Modeling for TRMM Lifetime Predictions
Jordan, P. S.; Sharer, P. J.; DeFazio, R. L.
1996-01-01
Analysis time for computing the expected mission lifetimes of proposed frequently maneuvering, tightly altitude constrained, Earth orbiting spacecraft have been significantly reduced by means of a heuristic modeling method implemented in a commercial-off-the-shelf spreadsheet product (QuattroPro) running on a personal computer (PC). The method uses a look-up table to estimate the maneuver frequency per month as a function of the spacecraft ballistic coefficient and the solar flux index, then computes the associated fuel use by a simple engine model. Maneuver frequency data points are produced by means of a single 1-month run of traditional mission analysis software for each of the 12 to 25 data points required for the table. As the data point computations are required only a mission design start-up and on the occasion of significant mission redesigns, the dependence on time consuming traditional modeling methods is dramatically reduced. Results to date have agreed with traditional methods to within 1 to 1.5 percent. The spreadsheet approach is applicable to a wide variety of Earth orbiting spacecraft with tight altitude constraints. It will be particularly useful to such missions as the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission scheduled for launch in 1997, whose mission lifetime calculations are heavily dependent on frequently revised solar flux predictions.
Comparing Productivity Simulated with Inventory Data Using Different Modelling Technologies
Klopf, M.; Pietsch, S. A.; Hasenauer, H.
2009-04-01
The Lime Stone National Park in Austria was established in 1997 to protect sensible lime stone soils from degradation due to heavy forest management. Since 1997 the management activities were successively reduced and standing volume and coarse woody debris (CWD) increased and degraded soils began to recover. One option to study the rehabilitation process towards natural virgin forest state is the use of modelling technology. In this study we will test two different modelling approaches for their applicability to Lime Stone National Park. We will compare standing tree volume simulated resulting from (i) the individual tree growth model MOSES, and (ii) the species and management sensitive adaptation of the biogeochemical-mechanistic model Biome-BGC. The results from the two models are compared with filed observations form repeated permanent forest inventory plots of the Lime Stone National Park in Austria. The simulated CWD predictions of the BGC-model were compared with dead wood measurements (standing and lying dead wood) recorded at the permanent inventory plots. The inventory was established between 1994 and 1996 and remeasured from 2004 to 2005. For this analysis 40 plots of this inventory were selected which comprise the required dead wood components and are dominated by a single tree species. First we used the distance dependant individual tree growth model MOSES to derive the standing timber and the amount of mortality per hectare. MOSES is initialized with the inventory data at plot establishment and each sampling plot is treated as forest stand. The Biome-BGC is a process based biogeochemical model with extensions for Austrian tree species, a self initialization and a forest management tool. The initialization for the actual simulations with the BGC model was done as follows: We first used spin up runs to derive a balanced forest vegetation, similar to an undisturbed forest. Next we considered the management history of the past centuries (heavy clear cuts
Distributed model predictive control made easy
Negenborn, Rudy
2014-01-01
The rapid evolution of computer science, communication, and information technology has enabled the application of control techniques to systems beyond the possibilities of control theory just a decade ago. Critical infrastructures such as electricity, water, traffic and intermodal transport networks are now in the scope of control engineers. The sheer size of such large-scale systems requires the adoption of advanced distributed control approaches. Distributed model predictive control (MPC) is one of the promising control methodologies for control of such systems. This book provides a state-of-the-art overview of distributed MPC approaches, while at the same time making clear directions of research that deserve more attention. The core and rationale of 35 approaches are carefully explained. Moreover, detailed step-by-step algorithmic descriptions of each approach are provided. These features make the book a comprehensive guide both for those seeking an introduction to distributed MPC as well as for those ...
Scaling predictive modeling in drug development with cloud computing.
Moghadam, Behrooz Torabi; Alvarsson, Jonathan; Holm, Marcus; Eklund, Martin; Carlsson, Lars; Spjuth, Ola
2015-01-26
Growing data sets with increased time for analysis is hampering predictive modeling in drug discovery. Model building can be carried out on high-performance computer clusters, but these can be expensive to purchase and maintain. We have evaluated ligand-based modeling on cloud computing resources where computations are parallelized and run on the Amazon Elastic Cloud. We trained models on open data sets of varying sizes for the end points logP and Ames mutagenicity and compare with model building parallelized on a traditional high-performance computing cluster. We show that while high-performance computing results in faster model building, the use of cloud computing resources is feasible for large data sets and scales well within cloud instances. An additional advantage of cloud computing is that the costs of predictive models can be easily quantified, and a choice can be made between speed and economy. The easy access to computational resources with no up-front investments makes cloud computing an attractive alternative for scientists, especially for those without access to a supercomputer, and our study shows that it enables cost-efficient modeling of large data sets on demand within reasonable time.
Statistical models for expert judgement and wear prediction
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pulkkinen, U.
1994-01-01
This thesis studies the statistical analysis of expert judgements and prediction of wear. The point of view adopted is the one of information theory and Bayesian statistics. A general Bayesian framework for analyzing both the expert judgements and wear prediction is presented. Information theoretic interpretations are given for some averaging techniques used in the determination of consensus distributions. Further, information theoretic models are compared with a Bayesian model. The general Bayesian framework is then applied in analyzing expert judgements based on ordinal comparisons. In this context, the value of information lost in the ordinal comparison process is analyzed by applying decision theoretic concepts. As a generalization of the Bayesian framework, stochastic filtering models for wear prediction are formulated. These models utilize the information from condition monitoring measurements in updating the residual life distribution of mechanical components. Finally, the application of stochastic control models in optimizing operational strategies for inspected components are studied. Monte-Carlo simulation methods, such as the Gibbs sampler and the stochastic quasi-gradient method, are applied in the determination of posterior distributions and in the solution of stochastic optimization problems. (orig.) (57 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab.)
Chen, Zeng-Ping; Li, Li-Mei; Yu, Ru-Qin; Littlejohn, David; Nordon, Alison; Morris, Julian; Dann, Alison S; Jeffkins, Paul A; Richardson, Mark D; Stimpson, Sarah L
2011-01-07
The development of reliable multivariate calibration models for spectroscopic instruments in on-line/in-line monitoring of chemical and bio-chemical processes is generally difficult, time-consuming and costly. Therefore, it is preferable if calibration models can be used for an extended period, without the need to replace them. However, in many process applications, changes in the instrumental response (e.g. owing to a change of spectrometer) or variations in the measurement conditions (e.g. a change in temperature) can cause a multivariate calibration model to become invalid. In this contribution, a new method, systematic prediction error correction (SPEC), has been developed to maintain the predictive abilities of multivariate calibration models when e.g. the spectrometer or measurement conditions are altered. The performance of the method has been tested on two NIR data sets (one with changes in instrumental responses, the other with variations in experimental conditions) and the outcomes compared with those of some popular methods, i.e. global PLS, univariate slope and bias correction (SBC) and piecewise direct standardization (PDS). The results show that SPEC achieves satisfactory analyte predictions with significantly lower RMSEP values than global PLS and SBC for both data sets, even when only a few standardization samples are used. Furthermore, SPEC is simple to implement and requires less information than PDS, which offers advantages for applications with limited data.
Classification models for the prediction of clinicians' information needs.
Del Fiol, Guilherme; Haug, Peter J
2009-02-01
Clinicians face numerous information needs during patient care activities and most of these needs are not met. Infobuttons are information retrieval tools that help clinicians to fulfill their information needs by providing links to on-line health information resources from within an electronic medical record (EMR) system. The aim of this study was to produce classification models based on medication infobutton usage data to predict the medication-related content topics (e.g., dose, adverse effects, drug interactions, patient education) that a clinician is most likely to choose while entering medication orders in a particular clinical context. We prepared a dataset with 3078 infobutton sessions and 26 attributes describing characteristics of the user, the medication, and the patient. In these sessions, users selected one out of eight content topics. Automatic attribute selection methods were then applied to the dataset to eliminate redundant and useless attributes. The reduced dataset was used to produce nine classification models from a set of state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms. Finally, the performance of the models was measured and compared. Area under the ROC curve (AUC) and agreement (kappa) between the content topics predicted by the models and those chosen by clinicians in each infobutton session. The performance of the models ranged from 0.49 to 0.56 (kappa). The AUC of the best model ranged from 0.73 to 0.99. The best performance was achieved when predicting choice of the adult dose, pediatric dose, patient education, and pregnancy category content topics. The results suggest that classification models based on infobutton usage data are a promising method for the prediction of content topics that a clinician would choose to answer patient care questions while using an EMR system.
Model Predictive Control of Buoy Type Wave Energy Converter
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Soltani, Mohsen N.; Sichani, Mahdi T.; Mirzaei, Mahmood
2014-01-01
by forcing this condition. In the paper the theoretical framework for this principal is shown. The optimal controller requires information of the sea state for infinite horizon which is not applicable. Model Predictive Controllers (MPC) can have finite horizon which crosses out this requirement....... This approach is then taken into account and an MPC controller is designed for a model wave energy converter and implemented on a numerical example. Further, the power outtake of this controller is compared to the optimal controller as an indicator of the performance of the designed controller....
A Comparative Study of Neural Networks and Fuzzy Systems in Modeling of a Nonlinear Dynamic System
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Metin Demirtas
2011-07-01
Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to compare the neural networks and fuzzy modeling approaches on a nonlinear system. We have taken Permanent Magnet Brushless Direct Current (PMBDC motor data and have generated models using both approaches. The predictive performance of both methods was compared on the data set for model configurations. The paper describes the results of these tests and discusses the effects of changing model parameters on predictive and practical performance. Modeling sensitivity was used to compare for two methods.
Saccharomyces cerevisiae as a model organism: a comparative study.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hiren Karathia
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Model organisms are used for research because they provide a framework on which to develop and optimize methods that facilitate and standardize analysis. Such organisms should be representative of the living beings for which they are to serve as proxy. However, in practice, a model organism is often selected ad hoc, and without considering its representativeness, because a systematic and rational method to include this consideration in the selection process is still lacking. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this work we propose such a method and apply it in a pilot study of strengths and limitations of Saccharomyces cerevisiae as a model organism. The method relies on the functional classification of proteins into different biological pathways and processes and on full proteome comparisons between the putative model organism and other organisms for which we would like to extrapolate results. Here we compare S. cerevisiae to 704 other organisms from various phyla. For each organism, our results identify the pathways and processes for which S. cerevisiae is predicted to be a good model to extrapolate from. We find that animals in general and Homo sapiens in particular are some of the non-fungal organisms for which S. cerevisiae is likely to be a good model in which to study a significant fraction of common biological processes. We validate our approach by correctly predicting which organisms are phenotypically more distant from S. cerevisiae with respect to several different biological processes. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The method we propose could be used to choose appropriate substitute model organisms for the study of biological processes in other species that are harder to study. For example, one could identify appropriate models to study either pathologies in humans or specific biological processes in species with a long development time, such as plants.
Forced versus coupled dynamics in Earth system modelling and prediction
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
B. Knopf
2005-01-01
Full Text Available We compare coupled nonlinear climate models and their simplified forced counterparts with respect to predictability and phase space topology. Various types of uncertainty plague climate change simulation, which is, in turn, a crucial element of Earth System modelling. Since the currently preferred strategy for simulating the climate system, or the Earth System at large, is the coupling of sub-system modules (representing, e.g. atmosphere, oceans, global vegetation, this paper explicitly addresses the errors and indeterminacies generated by the coupling procedure. The focus is on a comparison of forced dynamics as opposed to fully, i.e. intrinsically, coupled dynamics. The former represents a particular type of simulation, where the time behaviour of one complex systems component is prescribed by data or some other external information source. Such a simplifying technique is often employed in Earth System models in order to save computing resources, in particular when massive model inter-comparisons need to be carried out. Our contribution to the debate is based on the investigation of two representative model examples, namely (i a low-dimensional coupled atmosphere-ocean simulator, and (ii a replica-like simulator embracing corresponding components.Whereas in general the forced version (ii is able to mimic its fully coupled counterpart (i, we show in this paper that for a considerable fraction of parameter- and state-space, the two approaches qualitatively differ. Here we take up a phenomenon concerning the predictability of coupled versus forced models that was reported earlier in this journal: the observation that the time series of the forced version display artificial predictive skill. We present an explanation in terms of nonlinear dynamical theory. In particular we observe an intermittent version of artificial predictive skill, which we call on-off synchronization, and trace it back to the appearance of unstable periodic orbits. We also
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Juliana Yim
2005-01-01
Full Text Available This paper looks at the ability of a relatively new technique, hybrid ANN's, to predict corporate distress in Brazil. These models are compared with traditional statistical techniques and conventional ANN models. The results suggest that hybrid neural networks outperform all other models in predicting firms in financial distress one year prior to the event. This suggests that for researchers, policymakers and others interested in early warning systems, hybrid networks may be a useful tool for predicting firm failure.
Static response of deformable microchannels: a comparative modelling study
Shidhore, Tanmay C.; Christov, Ivan C.
2018-02-01
We present a comparative modelling study of fluid–structure interactions in microchannels. Through a mathematical analysis based on plate theory and the lubrication approximation for low-Reynolds-number flow, we derive models for the flow rate-pressure drop relation for long shallow microchannels with both thin and thick deformable top walls. These relations are tested against full three-dimensional two-way-coupled fluid–structure interaction simulations. Three types of microchannels, representing different elasticity regimes and having been experimentally characterized previously, are chosen as benchmarks for our theory and simulations. Good agreement is found in most cases for the predicted, simulated and measured flow rate-pressure drop relationships. The numerical simulations performed allow us to also carefully examine the deformation profile of the top wall of the microchannel in any cross section, showing good agreement with the theory. Specifically, the prediction that span-wise displacement in a long shallow microchannel decouples from the flow-wise deformation is confirmed, and the predicted scaling of the maximum displacement with the hydrodynamic pressure and the various material and geometric parameters is validated.
Fuzzy predictive filtering in nonlinear economic model predictive control for demand response
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Santos, Rui Mirra; Zong, Yi; Sousa, Joao M. C.
2016-01-01
The performance of a model predictive controller (MPC) is highly correlated with the model's accuracy. This paper introduces an economic model predictive control (EMPC) scheme based on a nonlinear model, which uses a branch-and-bound tree search for solving the inherent non-convex optimization...
Studying Musical and Linguistic Prediction in Comparable Ways: The Melodic Cloze Probability Method.
Fogel, Allison R; Rosenberg, Jason C; Lehman, Frank M; Kuperberg, Gina R; Patel, Aniruddh D
2015-01-01
Prediction or expectancy is thought to play an important role in both music and language processing. However, prediction is currently studied independently in the two domains, limiting research on relations between predictive mechanisms in music and language. One limitation is a difference in how expectancy is quantified. In language, expectancy is typically measured using the cloze probability task, in which listeners are asked to complete a sentence fragment with the first word that comes to mind. In contrast, previous production-based studies of melodic expectancy have asked participants to sing continuations following only one to two notes. We have developed a melodic cloze probability task in which listeners are presented with the beginning of a novel tonal melody (5-9 notes) and are asked to sing the note they expect to come next. Half of the melodies had an underlying harmonic structure designed to constrain expectations for the next note, based on an implied authentic cadence (AC) within the melody. Each such 'authentic cadence' melody was matched to a 'non-cadential' (NC) melody matched in terms of length, rhythm and melodic contour, but differing in implied harmonic structure. Participants showed much greater consistency in the notes sung following AC vs. NC melodies on average. However, significant variation in degree of consistency was observed within both AC and NC melodies. Analysis of individual melodies suggests that pitch prediction in tonal melodies depends on the interplay of local factors just prior to the target note (e.g., local pitch interval patterns) and larger-scale structural relationships (e.g., melodic patterns and implied harmonic structure). We illustrate how the melodic cloze method can be used to test a computational model of melodic expectation. Future uses for the method include exploring the interplay of different factors shaping melodic expectation, and designing experiments that compare the cognitive mechanisms of prediction in
Domain-Based Predictive Models for Protein-Protein Interaction Prediction
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chen Xue-Wen
2006-01-01
Full Text Available Protein interactions are of biological interest because they orchestrate a number of cellular processes such as metabolic pathways and immunological recognition. Recently, methods for predicting protein interactions using domain information are proposed and preliminary results have demonstrated their feasibility. In this paper, we develop two domain-based statistical models (neural networks and decision trees for protein interaction predictions. Unlike most of the existing methods which consider only domain pairs (one domain from one protein and assume that domain-domain interactions are independent of each other, the proposed methods are capable of exploring all possible interactions between domains and make predictions based on all the domains. Compared to maximum-likelihood estimation methods, our experimental results show that the proposed schemes can predict protein-protein interactions with higher specificity and sensitivity, while requiring less computation time. Furthermore, the decision tree-based model can be used to infer the interactions not only between two domains, but among multiple domains as well.
Block factorization of step response model predictive control problems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kufoalor, D. K.M.; Frison, Gianluca; Imsland, L.
2017-01-01
implemented in the HPMPC framework, and the performance is evaluated through simulation studies. The results confirm that a computationally fast controller is achieved, compared to the traditional step response MPC scheme that relies on an explicit prediction formulation. Moreover, the tailored condensing......By introducing a stage-wise prediction formulation that enables the use of highly efficient quadratic programming (QP) solution methods, this paper expands the computational toolbox for solving step response MPC problems. We propose a novel MPC scheme that is able to incorporate step response data...... algorithm exhibits superior performance and produces solution times comparable to that achieved when using a condensing scheme for an equivalent (but much smaller) state-space model derived from first-principles. Implementation aspects necessary for high performance on embedded platforms are discussed...
Validation of Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model for low-volume forest roads
William Elliot; R. B. Foltz; Charlie Luce
1995-01-01
Erosion rates of recently graded nongravel forest roads were measured under rainfall simulation on five different soils. The erosion rates observed on 24 forest road erosion plots were compared with values predicted by the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) Model, Version 93.1. Hydraulic conductivity and soil erodibility values were predicted from methods...
The effects of microphysical parameterization on model predictions of sulfate production in clouds
HEGG, DEAN A.; LARSON, TIMOTHY V.
2011-01-01
Model predictions of sulfate production by an explicit cloud chemistry parameterization are compared with corresponding predictions by a bulk chemistry model. Under conditions of high SO2 and H2O2, the various model predictions are in reasonable agreement. For conditions of low H2O2, the explicit microphysical model predicts sulfate production as much as 30 times higher than the bulk model, though more commonly the difference is of the order of a factor of 3. The differences arise because of ...
Comparing holographic dark energy models with statefinder
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cui, Jing-Lei; Zhang, Jing-Fei
2014-01-01
We apply the statefinder diagnostic to the holographic dark energy models, including the original holographic dark energy (HDE) model, the new holographic dark energy model, the new agegraphic dark energy (NADE) model, and the Ricci dark energy model. In the low-redshift region the holographic dark energy models are degenerate with each other and with the ΛCDM model in the H(z) and q(z) evolutions. In particular, the HDE model is highly degenerate with the ΛCDM model, and in the HDE model the cases with different parameter values are also in strong degeneracy. Since the observational data are mainly within the low-redshift region, it is very important to break this lowredshift degeneracy in the H(z) and q(z) diagnostics by using some quantities with higher order derivatives of the scale factor. It is shown that the statefinder diagnostic r(z) is very useful in breaking the low-redshift degeneracies. By employing the statefinder diagnostic the holographic dark energy models can be differentiated efficiently in the low-redshift region. The degeneracy between the holographic dark energy models and the ΛCDM model can also be broken by this method. Especially for the HDE model, all the previous strong degeneracies appearing in the H(z) and q(z) diagnostics are broken effectively. But for the NADE model, the degeneracy between the cases with different parameter values cannot be broken, even though the statefinder diagnostic is used. A direct comparison of the holographic dark energy models in the r-s plane is also made, in which the separations between the models (including the ΛCDM model) can be directly measured in the light of the current values {r 0 , s 0 } of the models. (orig.)
Coal demand prediction based on a support vector machine model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jia, Cun-liang; Wu, Hai-shan; Gong, Dun-wei [China University of Mining & Technology, Xuzhou (China). School of Information and Electronic Engineering
2007-01-15
A forecasting model for coal demand of China using a support vector regression was constructed. With the selected embedding dimension, the output vectors and input vectors were constructed based on the coal demand of China from 1980 to 2002. After compared with lineal kernel and Sigmoid kernel, a radial basis function(RBF) was adopted as the kernel function. By analyzing the relationship between the error margin of prediction and the model parameters, the proper parameters were chosen. The support vector machines (SVM) model with multi-input and single output was proposed. Compared the predictor based on RBF neural networks with test datasets, the results show that the SVM predictor has higher precision and greater generalization ability. In the end, the coal demand from 2003 to 2006 is accurately forecasted. l0 refs., 2 figs., 4 tabs.
Comparison of mixed layer models predictions with experimental data
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Faggian, P.; Riva, G.M. [CISE Spa, Divisione Ambiente, Segrate (Italy); Brusasca, G. [ENEL Spa, CRAM, Milano (Italy)
1997-10-01
The temporal evolution of the PBL vertical structure for a North Italian rural site, situated within relatively large agricultural fields and almost flat terrain, has been investigated during the period 22-28 June 1993 by experimental and modellistic point of view. In particular, the results about a sunny day (June 22) and a cloudy day (June 25) are presented in this paper. Three schemes to estimate mixing layer depth have been compared, i.e. Holzworth (1967), Carson (1973) and Gryning-Batchvarova models (1990), which use standard meteorological observations. To estimate their degree of accuracy, model outputs were analyzed considering radio-sounding meteorological profiles and stability atmospheric classification criteria. Besides, the mixed layer depths prediction were compared with the estimated values obtained by a simple box model, whose input requires hourly measures of air concentrations and ground flux of {sup 222}Rn. (LN)
Predictive Models of Li-ion Battery Lifetime (Presentation)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Smith, K.; Wood, E.; Santhanagopalan, S.; Kim, G.; Shi, Y.; Pesaran, A.
2014-09-01
Predictive models of Li-ion battery reliability must consider a multiplicity of electrochemical, thermal and mechanical degradation modes experienced by batteries in application environments. Complicating matters, Li-ion batteries can experience several path dependent degradation trajectories dependent on storage and cycling history of the application environment. Rates of degradation are controlled by factors such as temperature history, electrochemical operating window, and charge/discharge rate. Lacking accurate models and tests, lifetime uncertainty must be absorbed by overdesign and warranty costs. Degradation models are needed that predict lifetime more accurately and with less test data. Models should also provide engineering feedback for next generation battery designs. This presentation reviews both multi-dimensional physical models and simpler, lumped surrogate models of battery electrochemical and mechanical degradation. Models are compared with cell- and pack-level aging data from commercial Li-ion chemistries. The analysis elucidates the relative importance of electrochemical and mechanical stress-induced degradation mechanisms in real-world operating environments. Opportunities for extending the lifetime of commercial battery systems are explored.
Decline curve based models for predicting natural gas well performance
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Arash Kamari
2017-06-01
Full Text Available The productivity of a gas well declines over its production life as cannot cover economic policies. To overcome such problems, the production performance of gas wells should be predicted by applying reliable methods to analyse the decline trend. Therefore, reliable models are developed in this study on the basis of powerful artificial intelligence techniques viz. the artificial neural network (ANN modelling strategy, least square support vector machine (LSSVM approach, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS, and decision tree (DT method for the prediction of cumulative gas production as well as initial decline rate multiplied by time as a function of the Arps' decline curve exponent and ratio of initial gas flow rate over total gas flow rate. It was concluded that the results obtained based on the models developed in current study are in satisfactory agreement with the actual gas well production data. Furthermore, the results of comparative study performed demonstrates that the LSSVM strategy is superior to the other models investigated for the prediction of both cumulative gas production, and initial decline rate multiplied by time.
Predicting future glacial lakes in Austria using different modelling approaches
Otto, Jan-Christoph; Helfricht, Kay; Prasicek, Günther; Buckel, Johannes; Keuschnig, Markus
2017-04-01
Glacier retreat is one of the most apparent consequences of temperature rise in the 20th and 21th centuries in the European Alps. In Austria, more than 240 new lakes have formed in glacier forefields since the Little Ice Age. A similar signal is reported from many mountain areas worldwide. Glacial lakes can constitute important environmental and socio-economic impacts on high mountain systems including water resource management, sediment delivery, natural hazards, energy production and tourism. Their development significantly modifies the landscape configuration and visual appearance of high mountain areas. Knowledge on the location, number and extent of these future lakes can be used to assess potential impacts on high mountain geo-ecosystems and upland-lowland interactions. Information on new lakes is critical to appraise emerging threads and potentials for society. The recent development of regional ice thickness models and their combination with high resolution glacier surface data allows predicting the topography below current glaciers by subtracting ice thickness from glacier surface. Analyzing these modelled glacier bed surfaces reveals overdeepenings that represent potential locations for future lakes. In order to predict the location of future glacial lakes below recent glaciers in the Austrian Alps we apply different ice thickness models using high resolution terrain data and glacier outlines. The results are compared and validated with ice thickness data from geophysical surveys. Additionally, we run the models on three different glacier extents provided by the Austrian Glacier Inventories from 1969, 1998 and 2006. Results of this historical glacier extent modelling are compared to existing glacier lakes and discussed focusing on geomorphological impacts on lake evolution. We discuss model performance and observed differences in the results in order to assess the approach for a realistic prediction of future lake locations. The presentation delivers
Simple Mathematical Models Do Not Accurately Predict Early SIV Dynamics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Cecilia Noecker
2015-03-01
Full Text Available Upon infection of a new host, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV replicates in the mucosal tissues and is generally undetectable in circulation for 1–2 weeks post-infection. Several interventions against HIV including vaccines and antiretroviral prophylaxis target virus replication at this earliest stage of infection. Mathematical models have been used to understand how HIV spreads from mucosal tissues systemically and what impact vaccination and/or antiretroviral prophylaxis has on viral eradication. Because predictions of such models have been rarely compared to experimental data, it remains unclear which processes included in these models are critical for predicting early HIV dynamics. Here we modified the “standard” mathematical model of HIV infection to include two populations of infected cells: cells that are actively producing the virus and cells that are transitioning into virus production mode. We evaluated the effects of several poorly known parameters on infection outcomes in this model and compared model predictions to experimental data on infection of non-human primates with variable doses of simian immunodifficiency virus (SIV. First, we found that the mode of virus production by infected cells (budding vs. bursting has a minimal impact on the early virus dynamics for a wide range of model parameters, as long as the parameters are constrained to provide the observed rate of SIV load increase in the blood of infected animals. Interestingly and in contrast with previous results, we found that the bursting mode of virus production generally results in a higher probability of viral extinction than the budding mode of virus production. Second, this mathematical model was not able to accurately describe the change in experimentally determined probability of host infection with increasing viral doses. Third and finally, the model was also unable to accurately explain the decline in the time to virus detection with increasing viral
Assessment of factors influencing finite element vertebral model predictions.
Jones, Alison C; Wilcox, Ruth K
2007-12-01
This study aimed to establish model construction and configuration procedures for future vertebral finite element analysis by studying convergence, sensitivity, and accuracy behaviors of semiautomatically generated models and comparing the results with manually generated models. During a previous study, six porcine vertebral bodies were imaged using a microcomputed tomography scanner and tested in axial compression to establish their stiffness and failure strength. Finite element models were built using a manual meshing method. In this study, the experimental agreement of those models was compared with that of semiautomatically generated models of the same six vertebrae. Both manually and semiautomatically generated models were assigned gray-scale-based, element-specific material properties. The convergence of the semiautomatically generated models was analyzed for the complete models along with material property and architecture control cases. A sensitivity study was also undertaken to test the reaction of the models to changes in material property values, architecture, and boundary conditions. In control cases, the element-specific material properties reduce the convergence of the models in comparison to homogeneous models. However, the full vertebral models showed strong convergence characteristics. The sensitivity study revealed a significant reaction to changes in architecture, boundary conditions, and load position, while the sensitivity to changes in material property values was proportional. The semiautomatically generated models produced stiffness and strength predictions of similar accuracy to the manually generated models with much shorter image segmentation and meshing times. Semiautomatic methods can provide a more rapid alternative to manual mesh generation techniques and produce vertebral models of similar accuracy. The representation of the boundary conditions, load position, and surrounding environment is crucial to the accurate prediction of the
Model Predictive Control for an Industrial SAG Mill
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ohan, Valeriu; Steinke, Florian; Metzger, Michael
2012-01-01
We discuss Model Predictive Control (MPC) based on ARX models and a simple lower order disturbance model. The advantage of this MPC formulation is that it has few tuning parameters and is based on an ARX prediction model that can readily be identied using standard technologies from system identic...
Uncertainties in spatially aggregated predictions from a logistic regression model
Horssen, P.W. van; Pebesma, E.J.; Schot, P.P.
2002-01-01
This paper presents a method to assess the uncertainty of an ecological spatial prediction model which is based on logistic regression models, using data from the interpolation of explanatory predictor variables. The spatial predictions are presented as approximate 95% prediction intervals. The
Dealing with missing predictor values when applying clinical prediction models.
Janssen, K.J.; Vergouwe, Y.; Donders, A.R.T.; Harrell Jr, F.E.; Chen, Q.; Grobbee, D.E.; Moons, K.G.
2009-01-01
BACKGROUND: Prediction models combine patient characteristics and test results to predict the presence of a disease or the occurrence of an event in the future. In the event that test results (predictor) are unavailable, a strategy is needed to help users applying a prediction model to deal with
Gao, Hongjiang; Wong, Karen K; Zheteyeva, Yenlik; Shi, Jianrong; Uzicanin, Amra; Rainey, Jeanette J
2015-01-01
In the United States, influenza season typically begins in October or November, peaks in February, and tapers off in April. During the winter holiday break, from the end of December to the beginning of January, changes in social mixing patterns, healthcare-seeking behaviors, and surveillance reporting could affect influenza-like illness (ILI) rates. We compared predicted with observed weekly ILI to examine trends around the winter break period. We examined weekly rates of ILI by region in the United States from influenza season 2003-2004 to 2012-2013. We compared observed and predicted ILI rates from week 44 to week 8 of each influenza season using the auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method. Of 1,530 region, week, and year combinations, 64 observed ILI rates were significantly higher than predicted by the model. Of these, 21 occurred during the typical winter holiday break period (weeks 51-52); 12 occurred during influenza season 2012-2013. There were 46 observed ILI rates that were significantly lower than predicted. Of these, 16 occurred after the typical holiday break during week 1, eight of which occurred during season 2012-2013. Of 90 (10 HHS regions x 9 seasons) predictions during the peak week, 78 predicted ILI rates were lower than observed. Out of 73 predictions for the post-peak week, 62 ILI rates were higher than observed. There were 53 out of 73 models that had lower peak and higher post-peak predicted ILI rates than were actually observed. While most regions had ILI rates higher than predicted during winter holiday break and lower than predicted after the break during the 2012-2013 season, overall there was not a consistent relationship between observed and predicted ILI around the winter holiday break during the other influenza seasons.
Comparing various artificial neural network types for water temperature prediction in rivers
Piotrowski, Adam P.; Napiorkowski, Maciej J.; Napiorkowski, Jaroslaw J.; Osuch, Marzena
2015-10-01
A number of methods have been proposed for the prediction of streamwater temperature based on various meteorological and hydrological variables. The present study shows a comparison of few types of data-driven neural networks (multi-layer perceptron, product-units, adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference systems and wavelet neural networks) and nearest neighbour approach for short time streamwater temperature predictions in two natural catchments (mountainous and lowland) located in temperate climate zone, with snowy winters and hot summers. To allow wide applicability of such models, autoregressive inputs are not used and only easily available measurements are considered. Each neural network type is calibrated independently 100 times and the mean, median and standard deviation of the results are used for the comparison. Finally, the ensemble aggregation approach is tested. The results show that simple and popular multi-layer perceptron neural networks are in most cases not outperformed by more complex and advanced models. The choice of neural network is dependent on the way the models are compared. This may be a warning for anyone who wish to promote own models, that their superiority should be verified in different ways. The best results are obtained when mean, maximum and minimum daily air temperatures from the previous days are used as inputs, together with the current runoff and declination of the Sun from two recent days. The ensemble aggregation approach allows reducing the mean square error up to several percent, depending on the case, and noticeably diminishes differences in modelling performance obtained by various neural network types.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jing Lu
2014-11-01
Full Text Available We propose a weather prediction model in this article based on neural network and fuzzy inference system (NFIS-WPM, and then apply it to predict daily fuzzy precipitation given meteorological premises for testing. The model consists of two parts: the first part is the “fuzzy rule-based neural network”, which simulates sequential relations among fuzzy sets using artificial neural network; and the second part is the “neural fuzzy inference system”, which is based on the first part, but could learn new fuzzy rules from the previous ones according to the algorithm we proposed. NFIS-WPM (High Pro and NFIS-WPM (Ave are improved versions of this model. It is well known that the need for accurate weather prediction is apparent when considering the benefits. However, the excessive pursuit of accuracy in weather prediction makes some of the “accurate” prediction results meaningless and the numerical prediction model is often complex and time-consuming. By adapting this novel model to a precipitation prediction problem, we make the predicted outcomes of precipitation more accurate and the prediction methods simpler than by using the complex numerical forecasting model that would occupy large computation resources, be time-consuming and which has a low predictive accuracy rate. Accordingly, we achieve more accurate predictive precipitation results than by using traditional artificial neural networks that have low predictive accuracy.
Foundation Settlement Prediction Based on a Novel NGM Model
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Peng-Yu Chen
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Prediction of foundation or subgrade settlement is very important during engineering construction. According to the fact that there are lots of settlement-time sequences with a nonhomogeneous index trend, a novel grey forecasting model called NGM (1,1,k,c model is proposed in this paper. With an optimized whitenization differential equation, the proposed NGM (1,1,k,c model has the property of white exponential law coincidence and can predict a pure nonhomogeneous index sequence precisely. We used two case studies to verify the predictive effect of NGM (1,1,k,c model for settlement prediction. The results show that this model can achieve excellent prediction accuracy; thus, the model is quite suitable for simulation and prediction of approximate nonhomogeneous index sequence and has excellent application value in settlement prediction.
A grey NGM(1,1, k) self-memory coupling prediction model for energy consumption prediction.
Guo, Xiaojun; Liu, Sifeng; Wu, Lifeng; Tang, Lingling
2014-01-01
Energy consumption prediction is an important issue for governments, energy sector investors, and other related corporations. Although there are several prediction techniques, selection of the most appropriate technique is of vital importance. As for the approximate nonhomogeneous exponential data sequence often emerging in the energy system, a novel grey NGM(1,1, k) self-memory coupling prediction model is put forward in order to promote the predictive performance. It achieves organic integration of the self-memory principle of dynamic system and grey NGM(1,1, k) model. The traditional grey model's weakness as being sensitive to initial value can be overcome by the self-memory principle. In this study, total energy, coal, and electricity consumption of China is adopted for demonstration by using the proposed coupling prediction technique. The results show the superiority of NGM(1,1, k) self-memory coupling prediction model when compared with the results from the literature. Its excellent prediction performance lies in that the proposed coupling model can take full advantage of the systematic multitime historical data and catch the stochastic fluctuation tendency. This work also makes a significant contribution to the enrichment of grey prediction theory and the extension of its application span.
A Grey NGM(1,1, k) Self-Memory Coupling Prediction Model for Energy Consumption Prediction
Guo, Xiaojun; Liu, Sifeng; Wu, Lifeng; Tang, Lingling
2014-01-01
Energy consumption prediction is an important issue for governments, energy sector investors, and other related corporations. Although there are several prediction techniques, selection of the most appropriate technique is of vital importance. As for the approximate nonhomogeneous exponential data sequence often emerging in the energy system, a novel grey NGM(1,1, k) self-memory coupling prediction model is put forward in order to promote the predictive performance. It achieves organic integration of the self-memory principle of dynamic system and grey NGM(1,1, k) model. The traditional grey model's weakness as being sensitive to initial value can be overcome by the self-memory principle. In this study, total energy, coal, and electricity consumption of China is adopted for demonstration by using the proposed coupling prediction technique. The results show the superiority of NGM(1,1, k) self-memory coupling prediction model when compared with the results from the literature. Its excellent prediction performance lies in that the proposed coupling model can take full advantage of the systematic multitime historical data and catch the stochastic fluctuation tendency. This work also makes a significant contribution to the enrichment of grey prediction theory and the extension of its application span. PMID:25054174
A neural network based model for urban noise prediction.
Genaro, N; Torija, A; Ramos-Ridao, A; Requena, I; Ruiz, D P; Zamorano, M
2010-10-01
Noise is a global problem. In 1972 the World Health Organization (WHO) classified noise as a pollutant. Since then, most industrialized countries have enacted laws and local regulations to prevent and reduce acoustic environmental pollution. A further aim is to alert people to the dangers of this type of pollution. In this context, urban planners need to have tools that allow them to evaluate the degree of acoustic pollution. Scientists in many countries have modeled urban noise, using a wide range of approaches, but their results have not been as good as expected. This paper describes a model developed for the prediction of environmental urban noise using Soft Computing techniques, namely Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). The model is based on the analysis of variables regarded as influential by experts in the field and was applied to data collected on different types of streets. The results were compared to those obtained with other models. The study found that the ANN system was able to predict urban noise with greater accuracy, and thus, was an improvement over those models. The principal component analysis (PCA) was also used to try to simplify the model. Although there was a slight decline in the accuracy of the results, the values obtained were also quite acceptable.
Du, Hongying; Brender, Jeffrey R; Zhang, Jian; Zhang, Yang
2015-01-01
Structure based virtual screening has largely been limited to protein targets for which either an experimental structure is available or a strongly homologous template exists so that a high-resolution model can be constructed. The performance of state of the art protein structure predictions in virtual screening in systems where only weakly homologous templates are available is largely untested. Using the challenging DUD database of structural decoys, we show here that even using templates with only weak sequence homology (identity) structural models can be constructed by I-TASSER which achieve comparable enrichment rates to using the experimental bound crystal structure in the majority of the cases studied. For 65% of the targets, the I-TASSER models, which are constructed essentially in the apo conformations, reached 70% of the virtual screening performance of using the holo-crystal structures. A correlation was observed between the success of I-TASSER in modeling the global fold and local structures in the binding pockets of the proteins versus the relative success in virtual screening. The virtual screening performance can be further improved by the recognition of chemical features of the ligand compounds. These results suggest that the combination of structure-based docking and advanced protein structure modeling methods should be a valuable approach to the large-scale drug screening and discovery studies, especially for the proteins lacking crystallographic structures. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
David R. Weise; Eunmo Koo; Xiangyang Zhou; Shankar Mahalingam; Frédéric Morandini; Jacques-Henri Balbi
2016-01-01
Fire behaviour data from 240 laboratory fires in high-density live chaparral fuel beds were compared with model predictions. Logistic regression was used to develop a model to predict fire spread success in the fuel beds and linear regression was used to predict rate of spread. Predictions from the Rothermel equation and three proposed changes as well as two physically...
Inverse modeling with RZWQM2 to predict water quality
Nolan, Bernard T.; Malone, Robert W.; Ma, Liwang; Green, Christopher T.; Fienen, Michael N.; Jaynes, Dan B.
2011-01-01
reflect the total information provided by the observations for a parameter, indicated that most of the RZWQM2 parameters at the California study site (CA) and Iowa study site (IA) could be reliably estimated by regression. Correlations obtained in the CA case indicated that all model parameters could be uniquely estimated by inverse modeling. Although water content at field capacity was highly correlated with bulk density (−0.94), the correlation is less than the threshold for nonuniqueness (0.95, absolute value basis). Additionally, we used truncated singular value decomposition (SVD) at CA to mitigate potential problems with highly correlated and insensitive parameters. Singular value decomposition estimates linear combinations (eigenvectors) of the original process-model parameters. Parameter confidence intervals (CIs) at CA indicated that parameters were reliably estimated with the possible exception of an organic pool transfer coefficient (R45), which had a comparatively wide CI. However, the 95% confidence interval for R45 (0.03–0.35) is mostly within the range of values reported for this parameter. Predictive analysis at CA generated confidence intervals that were compared with independently measured annual water flux (groundwater recharge) and median nitrate concentration in a collocated monitoring well as part of model evaluation. Both the observed recharge (42.3 cm yr−1) and nitrate concentration (24.3 mg L−1) were within their respective 90% confidence intervals, indicating that overall model error was within acceptable limits.
Predictive models for moving contact line flows
Rame, Enrique; Garoff, Stephen
2003-01-01
Modeling flows with moving contact lines poses the formidable challenge that the usual assumptions of Newtonian fluid and no-slip condition give rise to a well-known singularity. This singularity prevents one from satisfying the contact angle condition to compute the shape of the fluid-fluid interface, a crucial calculation without which design parameters such as the pressure drop needed to move an immiscible 2-fluid system through a solid matrix cannot be evaluated. Some progress has been made for low Capillary number spreading flows. Combining experimental measurements of fluid-fluid interfaces very near the moving contact line with an analytical expression for the interface shape, we can determine a parameter that forms a boundary condition for the macroscopic interface shape when Ca much les than l. This parameter, which plays the role of an "apparent" or macroscopic dynamic contact angle, is shown by the theory to depend on the system geometry through the macroscopic length scale. This theoretically established dependence on geometry allows this parameter to be "transferable" from the geometry of the measurement to any other geometry involving the same material system. Unfortunately this prediction of the theory cannot be tested on Earth.
Developmental prediction model for early alcohol initiation in Dutch adolescents
Geels, L.M.; Vink, J.M.; Beijsterveldt, C.E.M. van; Bartels, M.; Boomsma, D.I.
2013-01-01
Objective: Multiple factors predict early alcohol initiation in teenagers. Among these are genetic risk factors, childhood behavioral problems, life events, lifestyle, and family environment. We constructed a developmental prediction model for alcohol initiation below the Dutch legal drinking age
Hauri, D D; Huss, A; Zimmermann, F; Kuehni, C E; Röösli, M
2013-10-01
Radon plays an important role for human exposure to natural sources of ionizing radiation. The aim of this article is to compare two approaches to estimate mean radon exposure in the Swiss population: model-based predictions at individual level and measurement-based predictions based on measurements aggregated at municipality level. A nationwide model was used to predict radon levels in each household and for each individual based on the corresponding tectonic unit, building age, building type, soil texture, degree of urbanization, and floor. Measurement-based predictions were carried out within a health impact assessment on residential radon and lung cancer. Mean measured radon levels were corrected for the average floor distribution and weighted with population size of each municipality. Model-based predictions yielded a mean radon exposure of the Swiss population of 84.1 Bq/m(3) . Measurement-based predictions yielded an average exposure of 78 Bq/m(3) . This study demonstrates that the model- and the measurement-based predictions provided similar results. The advantage of the measurement-based approach is its simplicity, which is sufficient for assessing exposure distribution in a population. The model-based approach allows predicting radon levels at specific sites, which is needed in an epidemiological study, and the results do not depend on how the measurement sites have been selected. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models
Gleixner, Stephanie; Keenlyside, Noel S.; Demissie, Teferi D.; Counillon, François; Wang, Yiguo; Viste, Ellen
2017-11-01
The Ethiopian economy and population is strongly dependent on rainfall. Operational seasonal predictions for the main rainy season (Kiremt, June-September) are based on statistical approaches with Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) as the main predictor. Here we analyse dynamical predictions from 11 coupled general circulation models for the Kiremt seasons from 1985-2005 with the forecasts starting from the beginning of May. We find skillful predictions from three of the 11 models, but no model beats a simple linear prediction model based on the predicted Niño3.4 indices. The skill of the individual models for dynamically predicting Kiremt rainfall depends on the strength of the teleconnection between Kiremt rainfall and concurrent Pacific SST in the models. Models that do not simulate this teleconnection fail to capture the observed relationship between Kiremt rainfall and the large-scale Walker circulation.
MODELLING OF DYNAMIC SPEED LIMITS USING THE MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andrey Borisovich Nikolaev
2017-09-01
Full Text Available The article considers the issues of traffic management using intelligent system “Car-Road” (IVHS, which consist of interacting intelligent vehicles (IV and intelligent roadside controllers. Vehicles are organized in convoy with small distances between them. All vehicles are assumed to be fully automated (throttle control, braking, steering. Proposed approaches for determining speed limits for traffic cars on the motorway using a model predictive control (MPC. The article proposes an approach to dynamic speed limit to minimize the downtime of vehicles in traffic.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Meng Xu
Full Text Available Understanding determinants of the invasiveness and ecological impacts of alien species is amongst the most sought-after and urgent research questions in ecology. Several studies have shown the value of comparing the functional responses (FRs of alien and native predators towards native prey, however, the technique is under-explored with herbivorous alien species and as a predictor of invasiveness as distinct from ecological impact. Here, in China, we conducted a mesocosm experiment to compare the FRs among three herbivorous snail species: the golden apple snail, Pomacea canaliculata, a highly invasive and high impact alien listed in "100 of the World's Worst Invasive Alien Species"; Planorbarius corneus, a non-invasive, low impact alien; and the Chinese native snail, Bellamya aeruginosa, when feeding on four locally occurring plant species. Further, by using a numerical response equation, we modelled the population dynamics of the snail consumers. For standard FR parameters, we found that the invasive and damaging alien snail had the highest "attack rates" a, shortest "handling times" h and also the highest estimated maximum feeding rates, 1/hT, whereas the native species had the lowest attack rates, longest handling times and lowest maximum feeding rates. The non-invasive, low impact alien species had consistently intermediate FR parameters. The invasive alien species had higher population growth potential than the native snail species, whilst that of the non-invasive alien species was intermediate. Thus, while the comparative FR approach has been proposed as a reliable method for predicting the ecological impacts of invasive predators, our results further suggest that comparative FRs could extend to predict the invasiveness and ecological impacts of alien herbivores and should be explored in other taxa and trophic groups to determine the general utility of the approach.
Xu, Meng; Mu, Xidong; Dick, Jaimie T. A.; Fang, Miao; Gu, Dangen; Luo, Du; Zhang, Jiaen; Luo, Jianren; Hu, Yinchang
2016-01-01
Understanding determinants of the invasiveness and ecological impacts of alien species is amongst the most sought-after and urgent research questions in ecology. Several studies have shown the value of comparing the functional responses (FRs) of alien and native predators towards native prey, however, the technique is under-explored with herbivorous alien species and as a predictor of invasiveness as distinct from ecological impact. Here, in China, we conducted a mesocosm experiment to compare the FRs among three herbivorous snail species: the golden apple snail, Pomacea canaliculata, a highly invasive and high impact alien listed in “100 of the World's Worst Invasive Alien Species”; Planorbarius corneus, a non-invasive, low impact alien; and the Chinese native snail, Bellamya aeruginosa, when feeding on four locally occurring plant species. Further, by using a numerical response equation, we modelled the population dynamics of the snail consumers. For standard FR parameters, we found that the invasive and damaging alien snail had the highest “attack rates” a, shortest “handling times” h and also the highest estimated maximum feeding rates, 1/hT, whereas the native species had the lowest attack rates, longest handling times and lowest maximum feeding rates. The non-invasive, low impact alien species had consistently intermediate FR parameters. The invasive alien species had higher population growth potential than the native snail species, whilst that of the non-invasive alien species was intermediate. Thus, while the comparative FR approach has been proposed as a reliable method for predicting the ecological impacts of invasive predators, our results further suggest that comparative FRs could extend to predict the invasiveness and ecological impacts of alien herbivores and should be explored in other taxa and trophic groups to determine the general utility of the approach. PMID:26771658
Predictive Models for Photovoltaic Electricity Production in Hot Weather Conditions
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Jabar H. Yousif
2017-07-01
Full Text Available The process of finding a correct forecast equation for photovoltaic electricity production from renewable sources is an important matter, since knowing the factors affecting the increase in the proportion of renewable energy production and reducing the cost of the product has economic and scientific benefits. This paper proposes a mathematical model for forecasting energy production in photovoltaic (PV panels based on a self-organizing feature map (SOFM model. The proposed model is compared with other models, including the multi-layer perceptron (MLP and support vector machine (SVM models. Moreover, a mathematical model based on a polynomial function for fitting the desired output is proposed. Different practical measurement methods are used to validate the findings of the proposed neural and mathematical models such as mean square error (MSE, mean absolute error (MAE, correlation (R, and coefficient of determination (R2. The proposed SOFM model achieved a final MSE of 0.0007 in the training phase and 0.0005 in the cross-validation phase. In contrast, the SVM model resulted in a small MSE value equal to 0.0058, while the MLP model achieved a final MSE of 0.026 with a correlation coefficient of 0.9989, which indicates a strong relationship between input and output variables. The proposed SOFM model closely fits the desired results based on the R2 value, which is equal to 0.9555. Finally, the comparison results of MAE for the three models show that the SOFM model achieved a best result of 0.36156, whereas the SVM and MLP models yielded 4.53761 and 3.63927, respectively. A small MAE value indicates that the output of the SOFM model closely fits the actual results and predicts the desired output.
Wang, Jing; Li, Man; Hu, Yun-tao; Zhu, Yu
2009-09-14
In recent years, artificial neural network is advocated in modeling complex multivariable relationships due to its ability of fault tolerance; while decision tree of data mining technique was recommended because of its richness of classification arithmetic rules and appeal of visibility. The aim of our research was to compare the performance of ANN and decision tree models in predicting hospital charges on gastric cancer patients. Data about hospital charges on 1008 gastric cancer patients and related demographic information were collected from the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University from 2005 to 2007 and preprocessed firstly to select pertinent input variables. Then artificial neural network (ANN) and decision tree models, using same hospital charge output variable and same input variables, were applied to compare the predictive abilities in terms of mean absolute errors and linear correlation coefficients for the training and test datasets. The transfer function in ANN model was sigmoid with 1 hidden layer and three hidden nodes. After preprocess of the data, 12 variables were selected and used as input variables in two types of models. For both the training dataset and the test dataset, mean absolute errors of ANN model were lower than those of decision tree model (1819.197 vs. 2782.423, 1162.279 vs. 3424.608) and linear correlation coefficients of the former model were higher than those of the latter (0.955 vs. 0.866, 0.987 vs. 0.806). The predictive ability and adaptive capacity of ANN model were better than those of decision tree model. ANN model performed better in predicting hospital charges of gastric cancer patients of China than did decision tree model.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hu Yun-tao
2009-09-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background In recent years, artificial neural network is advocated in modeling complex multivariable relationships due to its ability of fault tolerance; while decision tree of data mining technique was recommended because of its richness of classification arithmetic rules and appeal of visibility. The aim of our research was to compare the performance of ANN and decision tree models in predicting hospital charges on gastric cancer patients. Methods Data about hospital charges on 1008 gastric cancer patients and related demographic information were collected from the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University from 2005 to 2007 and preprocessed firstly to select pertinent input variables. Then artificial neural network (ANN and decision tree models, using same hospital charge output variable and same input variables, were applied to compare the predictive abilities in terms of mean absolute errors and linear correlation coefficients for the training and test datasets. The transfer function in ANN model was sigmoid with 1 hidden layer and three hidden nodes. Results After preprocess of the data, 12 variables were selected and used as input variables in two types of models. For both the training dataset and the test dataset, mean absolute errors of ANN model were lower than those of decision tree model (1819.197 vs. 2782.423, 1162.279 vs. 3424.608 and linear correlation coefficients of the former model were higher than those of the latter (0.955 vs. 0.866, 0.987 vs. 0.806. The predictive ability and adaptive capacity of ANN model were better than those of decision tree model. Conclusion ANN model performed better in predicting hospital charges of gastric cancer patients of China than did decision tree model.
Predictive value of clinical history compared with urodynamic study in 1,179 women
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Jorge Milhem Haddad
2016-02-01
Full Text Available SUMMARY Objective: to determine the positive predictive value of clinical history in comparison with urodynamic study for the diagnosis of urinary incontinence. Methods: retrospective analysis comparing clinical history and urodynamic evaluation of 1,179 women with urinary incontinence. The urodynamic study was considered the gold standard, whereas the clinical history was the new test to be assessed. This was established after analyzing each method as the gold standard through the difference between their positive predictive values. Results: the positive predictive values of clinical history compared with urodynamic study for diagnosis of stress urinary incontinence, overactive bladder and mixed urinary incontinence were, respectively, 37% (95% CI 31-44, 40% (95% CI 33-47 and 16% (95% CI 14-19. Conclusion: we concluded that the positive predictive value of clinical history was low compared with urodynamic study for urinary incontinence diagnosis. The positive predictive value was low even among women with pure stress urinary incontinence.
Comparison of pause predictions of two sequence-dependent transcription models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bai, Lu; Wang, Michelle D
2010-01-01
Two recent theoretical models, Bai et al (2004, 2007) and Tadigotla et al (2006), formulated thermodynamic explanations of sequence-dependent transcription pausing by RNA polymerase (RNAP). The two models differ in some basic assumptions and therefore make different yet overlapping predictions for pause locations, and different predictions on pause kinetics and mechanisms. Here we present a comprehensive comparison of the two models. We show that while they have comparable predictive power of pause locations at low NTP concentrations, the Bai et al model is more accurate than Tadigotla et al at higher NTP concentrations. The pausing kinetics predicted by Bai et al is also consistent with time-course transcription reactions, while Tadigotla et al is unsuited for this type of kinetic prediction. More importantly, the two models in general predict different pausing mechanisms even for the same pausing sites, and the Bai et al model provides an explanation more consistent with recent single molecule observations
Predictability in models of the atmospheric circulation
Houtekamer, P.L.
1992-01-01
It will be clear from the above discussions that skill forecasts are still in their infancy. Operational skill predictions do not exist. One is still struggling to prove that skill predictions, at any range, have any quality at all. It is not clear what the statistics of the analysis error
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mihaela Simionescu
2014-12-01
Full Text Available There are many types of econometric models used in predicting the inflation rate, but in this study we used a Bayesian shrinkage combination approach. This methodology is used in order to improve the predictions accuracy by including information that is not captured by the econometric models. Therefore, experts’ forecasts are utilized as prior information, for Romania these predictions being provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting (Dobrescu macromodel, National Commission for Prognosis and European Commission. The empirical results for Romanian inflation show the superiority of a fixed effects model compared to other types of econometric models like VAR, Bayesian VAR, simultaneous equations model, dynamic model, log-linear model. The Bayesian combinations that used experts’ predictions as priors, when the shrinkage parameter tends to infinite, improved the accuracy of all forecasts based on individual models, outperforming also zero and equal weights predictions and naïve forecasts.
Hybrid Wavelet-Postfix-GP Model for Rainfall Prediction of Anand Region of India
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Vipul K. Dabhi
2014-01-01
Full Text Available An accurate prediction of rainfall is crucial for national economy and management of water resources. The variability of rainfall in both time and space makes the rainfall prediction a challenging task. The present work investigates the applicability of a hybrid wavelet-postfix-GP model for daily rainfall prediction of Anand region using meteorological variables. The wavelet analysis is used as a data preprocessing technique to remove the stochastic (noise component from the original time series of each meteorological variable. The Postfix-GP, a GP variant, and ANN are then employed to develop models for rainfall using newly generated subseries of meteorological variables. The developed models are then used for rainfall prediction. The out-of-sample prediction performance of Postfix-GP and ANN models is compared using statistical measures. The results are comparable and suggest that Postfix-GP could be explored as an alternative tool for rainfall prediction.
Prediction of interest rate using CKLS model with stochastic parameters
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ying, Khor Chia [Faculty of Computing and Informatics, Multimedia University, Jalan Multimedia, 63100 Cyberjaya, Selangor (Malaysia); Hin, Pooi Ah [Sunway University Business School, No. 5, Jalan Universiti, Bandar Sunway, 47500 Subang Jaya, Selangor (Malaysia)
2014-06-19
The Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff and Sanders (CKLS) model is a popular one-factor model for describing the spot interest rates. In this paper, the four parameters in the CKLS model are regarded as stochastic. The parameter vector φ{sup (j)} of four parameters at the (J+n)-th time point is estimated by the j-th window which is defined as the set consisting of the observed interest rates at the j′-th time point where j≤j′≤j+n. To model the variation of φ{sup (j)}, we assume that φ{sup (j)} depends on φ{sup (j−m)}, φ{sup (j−m+1)},…, φ{sup (j−1)} and the interest rate r{sub j+n} at the (j+n)-th time point via a four-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a [4(m+1)+1]-dimensional power-normal distribution. Treating the (j+n)-th time point as the present time point, we find a prediction interval for the future value r{sub j+n+1} of the interest rate at the next time point when the value r{sub j+n} of the interest rate is given. From the above four-dimensional conditional distribution, we also find a prediction interval for the future interest rate r{sub j+n+d} at the next d-th (d≥2) time point. The prediction intervals based on the CKLS model with stochastic parameters are found to have better ability of covering the observed future interest rates when compared with those based on the model with fixed parameters.
Mass-balance model for predicting nitrate in ground water
Frimpter, Michael H.; Donohue, John J.; Rapacz, Michael V.
1990-01-01
A mass-balance accounting model can be used to guide the management of septic systems and fertilizers to control the degradation of ground-water quality in zones of an aquifer that contribute water to public-supply wells. The nitrate concentration of the mixture in the well can be predicted for steady-state conditions by calculating the concentration that results from the total weight of nitrogen and total volume of water entering the zone of contribution to the well. These calculations will allow water-quality managers to predict the nitrate concentrations that would be produced by different types and levels of development, and to plan development accordingly. Computations for different development schemes provide a technical basis for planners and managers to compare water-quality effects and to select alternatives that limit nitrate concentration in wells.
Required Collaborative Work in Online Courses: A Predictive Modeling Approach
Smith, Marlene A.; Kellogg, Deborah L.
2015-01-01
This article describes a predictive model that assesses whether a student will have greater perceived learning in group assignments or in individual work. The model produces correct classifications 87.5% of the time. The research is notable in that it is the first in the education literature to adopt a predictive modeling methodology using data…
Models for predicting compressive strength and water absorption of ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
This work presents a mathematical model for predicting the compressive strength and water absorption of laterite-quarry dust cement block using augmented Scheffe's simplex lattice design. The statistical models developed can predict the mix proportion that will yield the desired property. The models were tested for lack of ...
Nonlinear Economic Model Predictive Control Strategy for Active Smart Buildings
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Santos, Rui Mirra; Zong, Yi; Sousa, Joao M. C.
2016-01-01
Nowadays, the development of advanced and innovative intelligent control techniques for energy management in buildings is a key issue within the smart grid topic. A nonlinear economic model predictive control (EMPC) scheme, based on the branch-and-bound tree search used as optimization algorithm...... for solving the nonconvex optimization problem is proposed in this paper. A simulation using the nonlinear model-based controller to control the temperature levels of an intelligent office building (PowerFlexHouse) is addressed. Its performance is compared with a linear model-based controller. The nonlinear...... controller is shown very reliable keeping the comfort levels in the two considered seasons and shifting the load away from peak hours in order to achieve the desired flexible electricity consumption....
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li Hai; Huang Chen; Du Aibing; Xu Baoyu
2014-01-01
The thermal conductivity is one of the most important parameters in the computer code for performance prediction for fuel rods. Several fuel thermal conductivity models used in foreign computer code, including thermal conductivity models for MOX fuel and UO 2 fuel were introduced in this paper. Thermal conductivities were calculated by using these models, and the results were compared and analyzed. Finally, the thermal conductivity model for the native computer code for performance prediction for fuel rods in fast reactor was recommended. (authors)
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Thorndahl, Søren; Poulsen, Troels Sander; Bøvith, Thomas
2012-01-01
Forecast based flow prediction in drainage systems can be used to implement real time control of drainage systems. This study compares two different types of rainfall forecasts – a radar rainfall extrapolation based nowcast model and a numerical weather prediction model. The models are applied...... performance of the system is found using the radar nowcast for the short leadtimes and weather model for larger lead times....
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Poulsen, Troels Sander; Bøvith, Thomas
2012-01-01
Forecast based flow prediction in drainage systems can be used to implement real time control of drainage systems. This study compares two different types of rainfall forecasts – a radar rainfall extrapolation based nowcast model and a numerical weather prediction model. The models are applied...... performance of the system is found using the radar nowcast for the short leadtimes and weather model for larger lead times....
Yang, Jie; Weng, Wenguo; Wang, Faming; Song, Guowen
2017-05-01
This paper aims to integrate a human thermoregulatory model with a clothing model to predict core and skin temperatures. The human thermoregulatory model, consisting of an active system and a passive system, was used to determine the thermoregulation and heat exchanges within the body. The clothing model simulated heat and moisture transfer from the human skin to the environment through the microenvironment and fabric. In this clothing model, the air gap between skin and clothing, as well as clothing properties such as thickness, thermal conductivity, density, porosity, and tortuosity were taken into consideration. The simulated core and mean skin temperatures were compared to the published experimental results of subject tests at three levels of ambient temperatures of 20 °C, 30 °C, and 40 °C. Although lower signal-to-noise-ratio was observed, the developed model demonstrated positive performance at predicting core temperatures with a maximum difference between the simulations and measurements of no more than 0.43 °C. Generally, the current model predicted the mean skin temperatures with reasonable accuracy. It could be applied to predict human physiological responses and assess thermal comfort and heat stress. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Prediction of lithium-ion battery capacity with metabolic grey model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chen, Lin; Lin, Weilong; Li, Junzi; Tian, Binbin; Pan, Haihong
2016-01-01
Given the popularity of Lithium-ion batteries in EVs (electric vehicles), predicting the capacity quickly and accurately throughout a battery's full life-time is still a challenging issue for ensuring the reliability of EVs. This paper proposes an approach in predicting the varied capacity with discharge cycles based on metabolic grey theory and consider issues from two perspectives: 1) three metabolic grey models will be presented, including MGM (metabolic grey model), MREGM (metabolic Residual-error grey model), and MMREGM (metabolic Markov-residual-error grey model); 2) the universality of these models will be explored under different conditions (such as various discharge rates and temperatures). Furthermore, the research findings in this paper demonstrate the excellent performance of the prediction depending on the three models; however, the precision of the MREGM model is inferior compared to the others. Therefore, we have obtained the conclusion in which the MGM model and the MMREGM model have excellent performances in predicting the capacity under a variety of load conditions, even using few data points for modeling. Also, the universality of the metabolic grey prediction theory is verified by predicting the capacity of batteries under different discharge rates and different temperatures. - Highlights: • The metabolic mechanism is introduced in a grey system for capacity prediction. • Three metabolic grey models are presented and studied. • The universality of these models under different conditions is assessed. • A few data points are required for predicting the capacity with these models.
Guo, Z.; Sheath, D.; Amat Trigo, F.; Britton, R.J.
2017-01-01
Comparative functional responses (FRs) can predict impacts of invasive species,including piscivorous fishes, via quantifying their depletion of native food resources as a function of prey density. The utility of FRs for predicting impacts on prey populations by invasive fishes of different trophic guilds was tested here by\\ud comparing the FRs of the invaders Cyprinus carpio and Carassius auratus, with three native, trophically analogous fishes, Barbus barbus, Squalius cephalus and Tinca tinc...
Support vector regression for porosity prediction in a heterogeneous reservoir: A comparative study
Al-Anazi, A. F.; Gates, I. D.
2010-12-01
In wells with limited log and core data, porosity, a fundamental and essential property to characterize reservoirs, is challenging to estimate by conventional statistical methods from offset well log and core data in heterogeneous formations. Beyond simple regression, neural networks have been used to develop more accurate porosity correlations. Unfortunately, neural network-based correlations have limited generalization ability and global correlations for a field are usually less accurate compared to local correlations for a sub-region of the reservoir. In this paper, support vector machines are explored as an intelligent technique to correlate porosity to well log data. Recently, support vector regression (SVR), based on the statistical learning theory, have been proposed as a new intelligence technique for both prediction and classification tasks. The underlying formulation of support vector machines embodies the structural risk minimization (SRM) principle which has been shown to be superior to the traditional empirical risk minimization (ERM) principle employed by conventional neural networks and classical statistical methods. This new formulation uses margin-based loss functions to control model complexity independently of the dimensionality of the input space, and kernel functions to project the estimation problem to a higher dimensional space, which enables the solution of more complex nonlinear problem optimization methods to exist for a globally optimal solution. SRM minimizes an upper bound on the expected risk using a margin-based loss function ( ɛ-insensitivity loss function for regression) in contrast to ERM which minimizes the error on the training data. Unlike classical learning methods, SRM, indexed by margin-based loss function, can also control model complexity independent of dimensionality. The SRM inductive principle is designed for statistical estimation with finite data where the ERM inductive principle provides the optimal solution (the
Comparing models of offensive cyber operations
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Grant, T
2015-10-01
Full Text Available would be needed by a Cyber Security Operations Centre in order to perform offensive cyber operations?". The analysis was performed, using as a springboard seven models of cyber-attack, and resulted in the development of what is described as a canonical...
Comparative Distributions of Hazard Modeling Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rana Abdul Wajid
2006-07-01
Full Text Available In this paper we present the comparison among the distributions used in hazard analysis. Simulation technique has been used to study the behavior of hazard distribution modules. The fundamentals of Hazard issues are discussed using failure criteria. We present the flexibility of the hazard modeling distribution that approaches to different distributions.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Feldwisch-Drentrup, Hinnerk; Schulze-Bonhage, Andreas; Timmer, Jens; Schelter, Bjoern
2011-01-01
The prediction of events is of substantial interest in many research areas. To evaluate the performance of prediction methods, the statistical validation of these methods is of utmost importance. Here, we compare an analytical validation method to numerical approaches that are based on Monte Carlo simulations. The comparison is performed in the field of the prediction of epileptic seizures. In contrast to the analytical validation method, we found that for numerical validation methods insufficient but realistic sample sizes can lead to invalid high rates of false positive conclusions. Hence we outline necessary preconditions for sound statistical tests on above chance predictions.
Qualitative and quantitative guidelines for the comparison of environmental model predictions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Scott, M.
1995-03-01
The question of how to assess or compare predictions from a number of models is one of concern in the validation of models, in understanding the effects of different models and model parameterizations on model output, and ultimately in assessing model reliability. Comparison of model predictions with observed data is the basic tool of model validation while comparison of predictions amongst different models provides one measure of model credibility. The guidance provided here is intended to provide qualitative and quantitative approaches (including graphical and statistical techniques) to such comparisons for use within the BIOMOVS II project. It is hoped that others may find it useful. It contains little technical information on the actual methods but several references are provided for the interested reader. The guidelines are illustrated on data from the VAMP CB scenario. Unfortunately, these data do not permit all of the possible approaches to be demonstrated since predicted uncertainties were not provided. The questions considered are concerned with a) intercomparison of model predictions and b) comparison of model predictions with the observed data. A series of examples illustrating some of the different types of data structure and some possible analyses have been constructed. A bibliography of references on model validation is provided. It is important to note that the results of the various techniques discussed here, whether qualitative or quantitative, should not be considered in isolation. Overall model performance must also include an evaluation of model structure and formulation, i.e. conceptual model uncertainties, and results for performance measures must be interpreted in this context. Consider a number of models which are used to provide predictions of a number of quantities at a number of time points. In the case of the VAMP CB scenario, the results include predictions of total deposition of Cs-137 and time dependent concentrations in various
Regression models for predicting anthropometric measurements of ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
measure anthropometric dimensions to predict difficult-to-measure dimensions required for ergonomic design of school furniture. A total of 143 students aged between 16 and 18 years from eight public secondary schools in Ogbomoso, Nigeria ...
FINITE ELEMENT MODEL FOR PREDICTING RESIDUAL ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
direction (σx) had a maximum value of 375MPa (tensile) and minimum value of ... These results shows that the residual stresses obtained by prediction from the finite element method are in fair agreement with the experimental results.
Prediction for Major Adverse Outcomes in Cardiac Surgery: Comparison of Three Prediction Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Cheng-Hung Hsieh
2007-09-01
Conclusion: The Parsonnet score performed as well as the logistic regression models in predicting major adverse outcomes. The Parsonnet score appears to be a very suitable model for clinicians to use in risk stratification of cardiac surgery.
From Predictive Models to Instructional Policies
Rollinson, Joseph; Brunskill, Emma
2015-01-01
At their core, Intelligent Tutoring Systems consist of a student model and a policy. The student model captures the state of the student and the policy uses the student model to individualize instruction. Policies require different properties from the student model. For example, a mastery threshold policy requires the student model to have a way…
Comparing models of offensive cyber operations
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Grant, T
2012-03-01
Full Text Available system, few represent target selection, attack planning, and Denial of Service attacks, and none specifically represent attack coordination within distributed groups. Finally, a canonical model has been constructed by rational reconstruction (Habermas... logical form? (Habermas, 1976). RR has been applied in computing research to redesign a seminal expert system (Cendrowski & Bramer, 1984) and to formalise Boyd?s (1996) Observe-Orient-Decide-Act (OODA) loop (Grant & Kooter, 2005). In the research...
Romañach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Brandt, Laura A.; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Escribano, Yesenia; Mazzotti, Frank J.
2014-01-01
Climate change poses new challenges for natural resource managers. Predictive modeling of species–environment relationships using climate envelope models can enhance our understanding of climate change effects on biodiversity, assist in assessment of invasion risk by exotic organisms, and inform life-history understanding of individual species. While increasing interest has focused on the role of uncertainty in future conditions on model predictions, models also may be sensitive to the initial conditions on which they are trained. Although climate envelope models are usually trained using data on contemporary climate, we lack systematic comparisons of model performance and predictions across alternative climate data sets available for model training. Here, we seek to fill that gap by comparing variability in predictions between two contemporary climate data sets to variability in spatial predictions among three alternative projections of future climate. Overall, correlations between monthly temperature and precipitation variables were very high for both contemporary and future data. Model performance varied across algorithms, but not between two alternative contemporary climate data sets. Spatial predictions varied more among alternative general-circulation models describing future climate conditions than between contemporary climate data sets. However, we did find that climate envelope models with low Cohen's kappa scores made more discrepant spatial predictions between climate data sets for the contemporary period than did models with high Cohen's kappa scores. We suggest conservation planners evaluate multiple performance metrics and be aware of the importance of differences in initial conditions for spatial predictions from climate envelope models.
Short-term cancer mortality projections: a comparative study of prediction methods.
Lee, Terry C K; Dean, C B; Semenciw, Robert
2011-12-20
This paper provides a systematic comparison of cancer mortality and incidence projection methods used at major national health agencies. These methods include Poisson regression using an age-period-cohort model as well as a simple log-linear trend, a joinpoint technique, which accounts for sharp changes, autoregressive time series and state-space models. We assess and compare the reliability of these projection methods by using Canadian cancer mortality data for 12 cancer sites at both the national and regional levels. Cancer sites were chosen to provide a wide range of mortality frequencies. We explore specific techniques for small case counts and for overall national-level projections based on regional-level data. No single method is omnibus in terms of superior performance across a wide range of cancer sites and for all sizes of populations. However, the procedures based on age-period-cohort models used by the Association of the Nordic Cancer Registries tend to provide better performance than the other methods considered. The exception is when case counts are small, where the average of the observed counts over the recent 5-year period yields better predictions. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Dyjas, Oliver; Ulrich, Rolf
2014-01-01
In typical discrimination experiments, participants are presented with a constant standard and a variable comparison stimulus and their task is to judge which of these two stimuli is larger (comparative judgement). In these experiments, discrimination sensitivity depends on the temporal order of these stimuli (Type B effect) and is usually higher when the standard precedes rather than follows the comparison. Here, we outline how two models of stimulus discrimination can account for the Type B effect, namely the weighted difference model (or basic Sensation Weighting model) and the Internal Reference Model. For both models, the predicted psychometric functions for comparative judgements as well as for equality judgements, in which participants indicate whether they perceived the two stimuli to be equal or not equal, are derived and it is shown that the models also predict a Type B effect for equality judgements. In the empirical part, the models' predictions are evaluated. To this end, participants performed a duration discrimination task with comparative judgements and with equality judgements. In line with the models' predictions, a Type B effect was observed for both judgement types. In addition, a time-order error, as indicated by shifts of the psychometric functions, and differences in response times were observed only for the equality judgement. Since both models entail distinct additional predictions, it seems worthwhile for future research to unite the two models into one conceptual framework.
Fuzzy modeling to predict chicken egg hatchability in commercial hatchery.
Peruzzi, N J; Scala, N L; Macari, M; Furlan, R L; Meyer, A D; Fernandez-Alarcon, M F; Kroetz Neto, F L; Souza, F A
2012-10-01
Experimental studies have shown that hatching rate depends, among other factors, on the main physical characteristics of the eggs. The physical parameters used in our work were egg weight, eggshell thickness, egg sphericity, and yolk per albumen ratio. The relationships of these parameters in the incubation process were modeled by Fuzzy logic. The rules of the Fuzzy modeling were based on the analysis of the physical characteristics of the hatching eggs and the respective hatching rate using a commercial hatchery by applying a trapezoidal membership function into the modeling process. The implementations were performed in software. Aiming to compare the Fuzzy with a statistical modeling, the same data obtained in the commercial hatchery were analyzed using multiple linear regression. The estimated parameters of multiple linear regressions were based on a backward selection procedure. The results showed that the determination coefficient and the mean square error were higher using the Fuzzy method when compared with the statistical modeling. Furthermore, the predicted hatchability rates by Fuzzy Logic agreed with hatching rates obtained in the commercial hatchery.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Pawlowski Marcin
2012-11-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Computational models of protein structures were proved to be useful as search models in Molecular Replacement (MR, a common method to solve the phase problem faced by macromolecular crystallography. The success of MR depends on the accuracy of a search model. Unfortunately, this parameter remains unknown until the final structure of the target protein is determined. During the last few years, several Model Quality Assessment Programs (MQAPs that predict the local accuracy of theoretical models have been developed. In this article, we analyze whether the application of MQAPs improves the utility of theoretical models in MR. Results For our dataset of 615 search models, the real local accuracy of a model increases the MR success ratio by 101% compared to corresponding polyalanine templates. On the contrary, when local model quality is not utilized in MR, the computational models solved only 4.5% more MR searches than polyalanine templates. For the same dataset of the 615 models, a workflow combining MR with predicted local accuracy of a model found 45% more correct solution than polyalanine templates. To predict such accuracy MetaMQAPclust, a “clustering MQAP” was used. Conclusions Using comparative models only marginally increases the MR success ratio in comparison to polyalanine structures of templates. However, the situation changes dramatically once comparative models are used together with their predicted local accuracy. A new functionality was added to the GeneSilico Fold Prediction Metaserver in order to build models that are more useful for MR searches. Additionally, we have developed a simple method, AmIgoMR (Am I good for MR?, to predict if an MR search with a template-based model for a given template is likely to find the correct solution.
A Review of Hemolysis Prediction Models for Computational Fluid Dynamics.
Yu, Hai; Engel, Sebastian; Janiga, Gábor; Thévenin, Dominique
2017-07-01
Flow-induced hemolysis is a crucial issue for many biomedical applications; in particular, it is an essential issue for the development of blood-transporting devices such as left ventricular assist devices, and other types of blood pumps. In order to estimate red blood cell (RBC) damage in blood flows, many models have been proposed in the past. Most models have been validated by their respective authors. However, the accuracy and the validity range of these models remains unclear. In this work, the most established hemolysis models compatible with computational fluid dynamics of full-scale devices are described and assessed by comparing two selected reference experiments: a simple rheometric flow and a more complex hemodialytic flow through a needle. The quantitative comparisons show very large deviations concerning hemolysis predictions, depending on the model and model parameter. In light of the current results, two simple power-law models deliver the best compromise between computational efficiency and obtained accuracy. Finally, hemolysis has been computed in an axial blood pump. The reconstructed geometry of a HeartMate II shows that hemolysis occurs mainly at the tip and leading edge of the rotor blades, as well as at the leading edge of the diffusor vanes. © 2017 International Center for Artificial Organs and Transplantation and Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Predictive Model of Surgical Time for Revision Total Hip Arthroplasty.
Wu, Albert; Weaver, Michael J; Heng, Marilyn M; Urman, Richard D
2017-07-01
Maximizing operating room utilization in orthopedic and other surgeries relies on accurate estimates of surgical control time (SCT). A variety of case and patient-specific variables can influence the duration of surgical time during revision total hip arthroplasty (THA). We hypothesized that these variables are better predictors of actual SCT (aSCT) than a surgeon's own prediction (pSCT). All revision THAs from October 2008 to September 2014 from one institution were accessed. Variables for each case included aSCT, pSCT, patient age, gender, body mass index, American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status class, active infection, periprosthetic fracture, bone loss, heterotopic ossification, and implantation/explantation of a well-fixed acetabular/femoral component. These were incorporated in a stepwise fashion into a multivariate regression model for aSCT with a significant cutoff of 0.15. This was compared to a univariate regression model of aSCT that only used pSCT. In total, 516 revision THAs were analyzed. After stepwise selection, patient age and American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status were excluded from the model. The most significant increase in aSCT was seen with implantation of a new femoral component (24.0 min), followed by explantation of a well-fixed femoral component (18.7 min) and significant bone loss (15.0 min). Overall, the multivariate model had an improved r 2 of 0.49, compared to 0.16 from only using pSCT. A multivariate regression model can assist surgeons in more accurately predicting the duration of revision THAs. The strongest predictors of increased aSCT are explantation of a well-fixed femoral component, placement of an entirely new femoral component, and presence of significant bone loss. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Fournier's gangrene: a model for early prediction.
Palvolgyi, Roland; Kaji, Amy H; Valeriano, Javier; Plurad, David; Rajfer, Jacob; de Virgilio, Christian
2014-10-01
Early diagnosis remains the cornerstone of management of Fournier's gangrene. As a result of variable progression of disease, identifying early predictors of necrosis becomes a diagnostic challenge. We present a scoring system based on objective admission criteria, which can help distinguish Fournier's gangrene from nonnecrotizing scrotal infections. Ninety-six patients were identified, 38 diagnosed with Fournier's gangrene and 58 diagnosed with scrotal cellulitis or abscess. Statistical analyses comparing admission vital signs, laboratory values, and imaging studies were performed and Classification and Regression Tree analysis was used to construct a scoring system. Admission heart rate greater than 110 beats/minute, serum sodium less than 135 mmol/L, blood urea nitrogen greater than 15 mg/dL, and white blood cell count greater than 15 × 10(3)/μL were significant predictors of Fournier's gangrene. Using a threshold score of two or greater, our model differentiates patients with Fournier's gangrene from those with nonnecrotizing infections with a sensitivity of 84.2 per cent. Only 34.2 per cent of patients with Fournier's gangrene had hard signs of necrotizing infection on admission, which were not observed in patients with nonnecrotizing infections. Objective admission criteria assist in distinguishing Fournier's gangrene from scrotal cellulitis or abscess. In situations in which results of the physical examination are ambiguous, this scoring system can heighten the index of suspicion for Fournier's gangrene and prompt rapid surgical intervention.
Evaluation of the US Army fallout prediction model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pernick, A.; Levanon, I.
1987-01-01
The US Army fallout prediction method was evaluated against an advanced fallout prediction model--SIMFIC (Simplified Fallout Interpretive Code). The danger zone areas of the US Army method were found to be significantly greater (up to a factor of 8) than the areas of corresponding radiation hazard as predicted by SIMFIC. Nonetheless, because the US Army's method predicts danger zone lengths that are commonly shorter than the corresponding hot line distances of SIMFIC, the US Army's method is not reliably conservative
A modified wake oscillator model for predicting vortex induced vibration of heat exchanger tube
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Feng Zhipeng; Zang Fenggang; Zhang Yixiong; Ye Xianhui
2014-01-01
Base on the classical wake oscillator model, a new modified wake oscillator model is proposed, for predicting vortex induced vibration of heat exchanger tube in uniform current. The comparison between the new wake oscillator model and experimental show that the present model can simulate the characteristics of vortex induced vibration of tube. Firstly, the research shows that the coupled fluid-structure dynamical system should be modeled by combined displacement and acceleration mode. Secondly, the empirical parameter in wake oscillator model depends on the material properties of the structure, instead of being a universal constant. Lastly, the results are compared between modified wake oscillator model and fluid-structure interaction numerical model. It shows the present, predicted results are compared to the fluid-structure interaction numerical data. The new modified wake oscillator model can predict the vortex induced heat exchanger tube vibration feasibly. (authors)
Cure modeling in real-time prediction: How much does it help?
Ying, Gui-Shuang; Zhang, Qiang; Lan, Yu; Li, Yimei; Heitjan, Daniel F
2017-08-01
Various parametric and nonparametric modeling approaches exist for real-time prediction in time-to-event clinical trials. Recently, Chen (2016 BMC Biomedical Research Methodology 16) proposed a prediction method based on parametric cure-mixture modeling, intending to cover those situations where it appears that a non-negligible fraction of subjects is cured. In this article we apply a Weibull cure-mixture model to create predictions, demonstrating the approach in RTOG 0129, a randomized trial in head-and-neck cancer. We compare the ultimate realized data in RTOG 0129 to interim predictions from a Weibull cure-mixture model, a standard Weibull model without a cure component, and a nonparametric model based on the Bayesian bootstrap. The standard Weibull model predicted that events would occur earlier than the Weibull cure-mixture model, but the difference was unremarkable until late in the trial when evidence for a cure became clear. Nonparametric predictions often gave undefined predictions or infinite prediction intervals, particularly at early stages of the trial. Simulations suggest that cure modeling can yield better-calibrated prediction intervals when there is a cured component, or the appearance of a cured component, but at a substantial cost in the average width of the intervals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Prediction of speech intelligibility based on an auditory preprocessing model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christiansen, Claus Forup Corlin; Pedersen, Michael Syskind; Dau, Torsten
2010-01-01
Classical speech intelligibility models, such as the speech transmission index (STI) and the speech intelligibility index (SII) are based on calculations on the physical acoustic signals. The present study predicts speech intelligibility by combining a psychoacoustically validated model of auditory...
Modelling microbial interactions and food structure in predictive microbiology
Malakar, P.K.
2002-01-01
Keywords: modelling, dynamic models, microbial interactions, diffusion, microgradients, colony growth, predictive microbiology.
Growth response of microorganisms in foods is a complex process. Innovations in food production and preservation techniques have resulted in adoption of
Ocean wave prediction using numerical and neural network models
Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)
Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.
This paper presents an overview of the development of the numerical wave prediction models and recently used neural networks for ocean wave hindcasting and forecasting. The numerical wave models express the physical concepts of the phenomena...
A Prediction Model of the Capillary Pressure J-Function.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
W S Xu
Full Text Available The capillary pressure J-function is a dimensionless measure of the capillary pressure of a fluid in a porous medium. The function was derived based on a capillary bundle model. However, the dependence of the J-function on the saturation Sw is not well understood. A prediction model for it is presented based on capillary pressure model, and the J-function prediction model is a power function instead of an exponential or polynomial function. Relative permeability is calculated with the J-function prediction model, resulting in an easier calculation and results that are more representative.
Kim, Ok-Yeon; Chan, Johnny C. L.
2018-01-01
This study aims to predict the seasonal TC track density over the South Pacific by combining the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Climate Center (APCC) multi-model ensemble (MME) dynamical prediction system with a statistical model. The hybrid dynamical-statistical model is developed for each of the three clusters that represent major groups of TC best tracks in the South Pacific. The cross validation result from the MME hybrid model demonstrates moderate but statistically significant skills to predict TC numbers across all TC clusters, with correlation coefficients of 0.4 to 0.6 between the hindcasts and observations for 1982/1983 to 2008/2009. The prediction skill in the area east of about 170°E is significantly influenced by strong El Niño, whereas the skill in the southwest Pacific region mainly comes from the linear trend of TC number. The prediction skill of TC track density is particularly high in the region where there is climatological high TC track density around the area 160°E-180° and 20°S. Since this area has a mixed response with respect to ENSO, the prediction skill of TC track density is higher in non-ENSO years compared to that in ENSO years. Even though the cross-validation prediction skill is higher in the area east of about 170°E compared to other areas, this region shows less skill for track density based on the categorical verification due to huge influences by strong El Niño years. While prediction skill of the developed methodology varies across the region, it is important that the model demonstrates skill in the area where TC activity is high. Such a result has an important practical implication—improving the accuracy of seasonal forecast and providing communities at risk with advanced information which could assist with preparedness and disaster risk reduction.
Hefley, Trevor J; Baasch, David M; Tyre, Andrew J; Blankenship, Erin E
2015-10-01
Predicting a species' distribution can be helpful for evaluating management actions such as critical habitat designations under the U.S. Endangered Species Act or habitat acquisition and rehabilitation. Whooping Cranes (Grus americana) are one of the rarest birds in the world, and conservation and management of habitat is required to ensure their survival. We developed a species distribution model (SDM) that could be used to inform habitat management actions for Whooping Cranes within the state of Nebraska (U.S.A.). We collated 407 opportunistic Whooping Crane group records reported from 1988 to 2012. Most records of Whooping Cranes were contributed by the public; therefore, developing an SDM that accounted for sampling bias was essential because observations at some migration stopover locations may be under represented. An auxiliary data set, required to explore the influence of sampling bias, was derived with expert elicitation. Using our SDM, we compared an intensively managed area in the Central Platte River Valley with the Niobrara National Scenic River in northern Nebraska. Our results suggest, during the peak of migration, Whooping Crane abundance was 262.2 (90% CI 40.2-3144.2) times higher per unit area in the Central Platte River Valley relative to the Niobrara National Scenic River. Although we compared only 2 areas, our model could be used to evaluate any region within the state of Nebraska. Furthermore, our expert-informed modeling approach could be applied to opportunistic presence-only data when sampling bias is a concern and expert knowledge is available. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.
Development of residual stress prediction model in pipe weldment
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Eom, Yun Yong; Lim, Se Young; Choi, Kang Hyeuk; Cho, Young Sam; Lim, Jae Hyuk [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)
2002-03-15
When Leak Before Break(LBB) concepts is applied to high energy piping of nuclear power plants, residual weld stresses is a important variable. The main purpose of his research is to develop the numerical model which can predict residual weld stresses. Firstly, basic theories were described which need to numerical analysis of welding parts. Before the analysis of pipe, welding of a flat plate was analyzed and compared. Appling the data of used pipes, thermal/mechanical analysis were accomplished and computed temperature gradient and residual stress distribution. For thermal analysis, proper heat flux was regarded as the heat source and convection/radiation heat transfer were considered at surfaces. The residual stresses were counted from the computed temperature gradient and they were compared and verified with a result of another research.
REALIGNED MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL OF A PROPYLENE DISTILLATION COLUMN
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. I. Hinojosa
Full Text Available Abstract In the process industry, advanced controllers usually aim at an economic objective, which usually requires closed-loop stability and constraints satisfaction. In this paper, the application of a MPC in the optimization structure of an industrial Propylene/Propane (PP splitter is tested with a controller based on a state space model, which is suitable for heavily disturbed environments. The simulation platform is based on the integration of the commercial dynamic simulator Dynsim® and the rigorous steady-state optimizer ROMeo® with the real-time facilities of Matlab. The predictive controller is the Infinite Horizon Model Predictive Control (IHMPC, based on a state-space model that that does not require the use of a state observer because the non-minimum state is built with the past inputs and outputs. The controller considers the existence of zone control of the outputs and optimizing targets for the inputs. We verify that the controller is efficient to control the propylene distillation system in a disturbed scenario when compared with a conventional controller based on a state observer. The simulation results show a good performance in terms of stability of the controller and rejection of large disturbances in the composition of the feed of the propylene distillation column.
Validation of an Acoustic Impedance Prediction Model for Skewed Resonators
Howerton, Brian M.; Parrott, Tony L.
2009-01-01
An impedance prediction model was validated experimentally to determine the composite impedance of a series of high-aspect ratio slot resonators incorporating channel skew and sharp bends. Such structures are useful for packaging acoustic liners into constrained spaces for turbofan noise control applications. A formulation of the Zwikker-Kosten Transmission Line (ZKTL) model, incorporating the Richards correction for rectangular channels, is used to calculate the composite normalized impedance of a series of six multi-slot resonator arrays with constant channel length. Experimentally, acoustic data was acquired in the NASA Langley Normal Incidence Tube over the frequency range of 500 to 3500 Hz at 120 and 140 dB OASPL. Normalized impedance was reduced using the Two-Microphone Method for the various combinations of channel skew and sharp 90o and 180o bends. Results show that the presence of skew and/or sharp bends does not significantly alter the impedance of a slot resonator as compared to a straight resonator of the same total channel length. ZKTL predicts the impedance of such resonators very well over the frequency range of interest. The model can be used to design arrays of slot resonators that can be packaged into complex geometries heretofore unsuitable for effective acoustic treatment.
Statistical model based gender prediction for targeted NGS clinical panels
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Palani Kannan Kandavel
2017-12-01
The reference test dataset are being used to test the model. The sensitivity on predicting the gender has been increased from the current “genotype composition in ChrX” based approach. In addition, the prediction score given by the model can be used to evaluate the quality of clinical dataset. The higher prediction score towards its respective gender indicates the higher quality of sequenced data.
Comparison of predictive models for the early diagnosis of diabetes
M. Jahani (Meysam); M. Mahdavi (Mahdi)
2016-01-01
textabstractObjectives: This study develops neural network models to improve the prediction of diabetes using clinical and lifestyle characteristics. Prediction models were developed using a combination of approaches and concepts. Methods: We used memetic algorithms to update weights and to improve
Testing and analysis of internal hardwood log defect prediction models
R. Edward. Thomas
2011-01-01
The severity and location of internal defects determine the quality and value of lumber sawn from hardwood logs. Models have been developed to predict the size and position of internal defects based on external defect indicator measurements. These models were shown to predict approximately 80% of all internal knots based on external knot indicators. However, the size...
Hidden Markov Model for quantitative prediction of snowfall
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) has been developed for prediction of quantitative snowfall in Pir-Panjal and Great Himalayan mountain ranges of Indian Himalaya. The model predicts snowfall for two days in advance using daily recorded nine meteorological variables of past 20 winters from 1992–2012. There are six ...
Bayesian variable order Markov models: Towards Bayesian predictive state representations
Dimitrakakis, C.
2009-01-01
We present a Bayesian variable order Markov model that shares many similarities with predictive state representations. The resulting models are compact and much easier to specify and learn than classical predictive state representations. Moreover, we show that they significantly outperform a more
Demonstrating the improvement of predictive maturity of a computational model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Unal, Cetin [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Atamturktur, Huriye S [CLEMSON UNIV.
2010-01-01
We demonstrate an improvement of predictive capability brought to a non-linear material model using a combination of test data, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, and calibration. A model that captures increasingly complicated phenomena, such as plasticity, temperature and strain rate effects, is analyzed. Predictive maturity is defined, here, as the accuracy of the model to predict multiple Hopkinson bar experiments. A statistical discrepancy quantifies the systematic disagreement (bias) between measurements and predictions. Our hypothesis is that improving the predictive capability of a model should translate into better agreement between measurements and predictions. This agreement, in turn, should lead to a smaller discrepancy. We have recently proposed to use discrepancy and coverage, that is, the extent to which the physical experiments used for calibration populate the regime of applicability of the model, as basis to define a Predictive Maturity Index (PMI). It was shown that predictive maturity could be improved when additional physical tests are made available to increase coverage of the regime of applicability. This contribution illustrates how the PMI changes as 'better' physics are implemented in the model. The application is the non-linear Preston-Tonks-Wallace (PTW) strength model applied to Beryllium metal. We demonstrate that our framework tracks the evolution of maturity of the PTW model. Robustness of the PMI with respect to the selection of coefficients needed in its definition is also studied.
Refining the Committee Approach and Uncertainty Prediction in Hydrological Modelling
Kayastha, N.
2014-01-01
Due to the complexity of hydrological systems a single model may be unable to capture the full range of a catchment response and accurately predict the streamflows. The multi modelling approach opens up possibilities for handling such difficulties and allows improve the predictive capability of
Refining the committee approach and uncertainty prediction in hydrological modelling
Kayastha, N.
2014-01-01
Due to the complexity of hydrological systems a single model may be unable to capture the full range of a catchment response and accurately predict the streamflows. The multi modelling approach opens up possibilities for handling such difficulties and allows improve the predictive capability of
Wind turbine control and model predictive control for uncertain systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Thomsen, Sven Creutz
as disturbance models for controller design. The theoretical study deals with Model Predictive Control (MPC). MPC is an optimal control method which is characterized by the use of a receding prediction horizon. MPC has risen in popularity due to its inherent ability to systematically account for time...
Hidden Markov Model for quantitative prediction of snowfall and ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) has been developed for prediction of quantitative snowfall in Pir-Panjal and Great Himalayan mountain ranges of Indian Himalaya. The model predicts snowfall for two days in advance using daily recorded nine meteorological variables of past 20 winters from 1992–2012. There are six ...
Models for predicting fuel consumption in sagebrush-dominated ecosystems
Clinton S. Wright
2013-01-01
Fuel consumption predictions are necessary to accurately estimate or model fire effects, including pollutant emissions during wildland fires. Fuel and environmental measurements on a series of operational prescribed fires were used to develop empirical models for predicting fuel consumption in big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentate Nutt.) ecosystems....
A mathematical model for predicting earthquake occurrence ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
We consider the continental crust under damage. We use the observed results of microseism in many seismic stations of the world which was established to study the time series of the activities of the continental crust with a view to predicting possible time of occurrence of earthquake. We consider microseism time series ...
Model for predicting the injury severity score.
Hagiwara, Shuichi; Oshima, Kiyohiro; Murata, Masato; Kaneko, Minoru; Aoki, Makoto; Kanbe, Masahiko; Nakamura, Takuro; Ohyama, Yoshio; Tamura, Jun'ichi
2015-07-01
To determine the formula that predicts the injury severity score from parameters that are obtained in the emergency department at arrival. We reviewed the medical records of trauma patients who were transferred to the emergency department of Gunma University Hospital between January 2010 and December 2010. The injury severity score, age, mean blood pressure, heart rate, Glasgow coma scale, hemoglobin, hematocrit, red blood cell count, platelet count, fibrinogen, international normalized ratio of prothrombin time, activated partial thromboplastin time, and fibrin degradation products, were examined in those patients on arrival. To determine the formula that predicts the injury severity score, multiple linear regression analysis was carried out. The injury severity score was set as the dependent variable, and the other parameters were set as candidate objective variables. IBM spss Statistics 20 was used for the statistical analysis. Statistical significance was set at P Watson ratio was 2.200. A formula for predicting the injury severity score in trauma patients was developed with ordinary parameters such as fibrin degradation products and mean blood pressure. This formula is useful because we can predict the injury severity score easily in the emergency department.
Analysing earthquake slip models with the spatial prediction comparison test
Zhang, L.
2014-11-10
Earthquake rupture models inferred from inversions of geophysical and/or geodetic data exhibit remarkable variability due to uncertainties in modelling assumptions, the use of different inversion algorithms, or variations in data selection and data processing. A robust statistical comparison of different rupture models obtained for a single earthquake is needed to quantify the intra-event variability, both for benchmark exercises and for real earthquakes. The same approach may be useful to characterize (dis-)similarities in events that are typically grouped into a common class of events (e.g. moderate-size crustal strike-slip earthquakes or tsunamigenic large subduction earthquakes). For this purpose, we examine the performance of the spatial prediction comparison test (SPCT), a statistical test developed to compare spatial (random) fields by means of a chosen loss function that describes an error relation between a 2-D field (‘model’) and a reference model. We implement and calibrate the SPCT approach for a suite of synthetic 2-D slip distributions, generated as spatial random fields with various characteristics, and then apply the method to results of a benchmark inversion exercise with known solution. We find the SPCT to be sensitive to different spatial correlations lengths, and different heterogeneity levels of the slip distributions. The SPCT approach proves to be a simple and effective tool for ranking the slip models with respect to a reference model.
Prediction of fog/visibility over India using NWP Model
Singh, Aditi; George, John P.; Iyengar, Gopal Raman
2018-03-01
Frequent occurrence of fog in different parts of northern India is common during the winter months of December and January. Low visibility conditions due to fog disrupt normal public life. Visibility conditions heavily affect both surface and air transport. A number of flights are either diverted or cancelled every year during the winter season due to low visibility conditions, experienced at different airports of north India. Thus, fog and visibility forecasts over plains of north India become very important during winter months. This study aims to understand the ability of a NWP model (NCMRWF, Unified Model, NCUM) with a diagnostic visibility scheme to forecast visibility over plains of north India. The present study verifies visibility forecasts obtained from NCUM against the INSAT-3D fog images and visibility observations from the METAR reports of different stations in the plains of north India. The study shows that the visibility forecast obtained from NCUM can provide reasonably good indication of the spatial extent of fog in advance of one day. The fog intensity is also predicted fairly well. The study also verifies the simple diagnostic model for fog which is driven by NWP model forecast of surface relative humidity and wind speed. The performance of NWP model forecast of visibility is found comparable to that from simple fog model driven by NWP forecast of relative humidity and wind speed.
A model of the statistical power of comparative genome sequence analysis.
Sean R Eddy
2005-01-01
Comparative genome sequence analysis is powerful, but sequencing genomes is expensive. It is desirable to be able to predict how many genomes are needed for comparative genomics, and at what evolutionary distances. Here I describe a simple mathematical model for the common problem of identifying conserved sequences. The model leads to some useful rules of thumb. For a given evolutionary distance, the number of comparative genomes needed for a constant level of statistical stringency in identi...
Econometric models for predicting confusion crop ratios
Umberger, D. E.; Proctor, M. H.; Clark, J. E.; Eisgruber, L. M.; Braschler, C. B. (Principal Investigator)
1979-01-01
Results for both the United States and Canada show that econometric models can provide estimates of confusion crop ratios that are more accurate than historical ratios. Whether these models can support the LACIE 90/90 accuracy criterion is uncertain. In the United States, experimenting with additional model formulations could provide improved methods models in some CRD's, particularly in winter wheat. Improved models may also be possible for the Canadian CD's. The more aggressive province/state models outperformed individual CD/CRD models. This result was expected partly because acreage statistics are based on sampling procedures, and the sampling precision declines from the province/state to the CD/CRD level. Declining sampling precision and the need to substitute province/state data for the CD/CRD data introduced measurement error into the CD/CRD models.
Rubinstein, Justin L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Chen, Kate Huihsuan; Uchida, Naoki
2012-01-01
The behavior of individual events in repeating earthquake sequences in California, Taiwan and Japan is better predicted by a model with fixed inter-event time or fixed slip than it is by the time- and slip-predictable models for earthquake occurrence. Given that repeating earthquakes are highly regular in both inter-event time and seismic moment, the time- and slip-predictable models seem ideally suited to explain their behavior. Taken together with evidence from the companion manuscript that shows similar results for laboratory experiments we conclude that the short-term predictions of the time- and slip-predictable models should be rejected in favor of earthquake models that assume either fixed slip or fixed recurrence interval. This implies that the elastic rebound model underlying the time- and slip-predictable models offers no additional value in describing earthquake behavior in an event-to-event sense, but its value in a long-term sense cannot be determined. These models likely fail because they rely on assumptions that oversimplify the earthquake cycle. We note that the time and slip of these events is predicted quite well by fixed slip and fixed recurrence models, so in some sense they are time- and slip-predictable. While fixed recurrence and slip models better predict repeating earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models, we observe a correlation between slip and the preceding recurrence time for many repeating earthquake sequences in Parkfield, California. This correlation is not found in other regions, and the sequences with the correlative slip-predictable behavior are not distinguishable from nearby earthquake sequences that do not exhibit this behavior.
Genomic-Enabled Prediction in Maize Using Kernel Models with Genotype × Environment Interaction.
Bandeira E Sousa, Massaine; Cuevas, Jaime; de Oliveira Couto, Evellyn Giselly; Pérez-Rodríguez, Paulino; Jarquín, Diego; Fritsche-Neto, Roberto; Burgueño, Juan; Crossa, Jose
2017-06-07
Multi-environment trials are routinely conducted in plant breeding to select candidates for the next selection cycle. In this study, we compare the prediction accuracy of four developed genomic-enabled prediction models: (1) single-environment, main genotypic effect model (SM); (2) multi-environment, main genotypic effects model (MM); (3) multi-environment, single variance G×E deviation model (MDs); and (4) multi-environment, environment-specific variance G×E deviation model (MDe). Each of these four models were fitted using two kernel methods: a linear kernel Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Predictor, GBLUP (GB), and a nonlinear kernel Gaussian kernel (GK). The eight model-method combinations were applied to two extensive Brazilian maize data sets (HEL and USP data sets), having different numbers of maize hybrids evaluated in different environments for grain yield (GY), plant height (PH), and ear height (EH). Results show that the MDe and the MDs models fitted with the Gaussian kernel (MDe-GK, and MDs-GK) had the highest prediction accuracy. For GY in the HEL data set, the increase in prediction accuracy of SM-GK over SM-GB ranged from 9 to 32%. For the MM, MDs, and MDe models, the increase in prediction accuracy of GK over GB ranged from 9 to 49%. For GY in the USP data set, the increase in prediction accuracy of SM-GK over SM-GB ranged from 0 to 7%. For the MM, MDs, and MDe models, the increase in prediction accuracy of GK over GB ranged from 34 to 70%. For traits PH and EH, gains in prediction accuracy of models with GK compared to models with GB were smaller than those achieved in GY. Also, these gains in prediction accuracy decreased when a more difficult prediction problem was studied. Copyright © 2017 Bandeira e Sousa et al.
Genomic-Enabled Prediction in Maize Using Kernel Models with Genotype × Environment Interaction
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Massaine Bandeira e Sousa
2017-06-01
Full Text Available Multi-environment trials are routinely conducted in plant breeding to select candidates for the next selection cycle. In this study, we compare the prediction accuracy of four developed genomic-enabled prediction models: (1 single-environment, main genotypic effect model (SM; (2 multi-environment, main genotypic effects model (MM; (3 multi-environment, single variance G×E deviation model (MDs; and (4 multi-environment, environment-specific variance G×E deviation model (MDe. Each of these four models were fitted using two kernel methods: a linear kernel Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Predictor, GBLUP (GB, and a nonlinear kernel Gaussian kernel (GK. The eight model-method combinations were applied to two extensive Brazilian maize data sets (HEL and USP data sets, having different numbers of maize hybrids evaluated in different environments for grain yield (GY, plant height (PH, and ear height (EH. Results show that the MDe and the MDs models fitted with the Gaussian kernel (MDe-GK, and MDs-GK had the highest prediction accuracy. For GY in the HEL data set, the increase in prediction accuracy of SM-GK over SM-GB ranged from 9 to 32%. For the MM, MDs, and MDe models, the increase in prediction accuracy of GK over GB ranged from 9 to 49%. For GY in the USP data set, the increase in prediction accuracy of SM-GK over SM-GB ranged from 0 to 7%. For the MM, MDs, and MDe models, the increase in prediction accuracy of GK over GB ranged from 34 to 70%. For traits PH and EH, gains in prediction accuracy of models with GK compared to models with GB were smaller than those achieved in GY. Also, these gains in prediction accuracy decreased when a more difficult prediction problem was studied.
PEEX Modelling Platform for Seamless Environmental Prediction
Baklanov, Alexander; Mahura, Alexander; Arnold, Stephen; Makkonen, Risto; Petäjä, Tuukka; Kerminen, Veli-Matti; Lappalainen, Hanna K.; Ezau, Igor; Nuterman, Roman; Zhang, Wen; Penenko, Alexey; Gordov, Evgeny; Zilitinkevich, Sergej; Kulmala, Markku
2017-04-01
The Pan-Eurasian EXperiment (PEEX) is a multidisciplinary, multi-scale research programme stared in 2012 and aimed at resolving the major uncertainties in Earth System Science and global sustainability issues concerning the Arctic and boreal Northern Eurasian regions and in China. Such challenges include climate change, air quality, biodiversity loss, chemicalization, food supply, and the use of natural resources by mining, industry, energy production and transport. The research infrastructure introduces the current state of the art modeling platform and observation systems in the Pan-Eurasian region and presents the future baselines for the coherent and coordinated research infrastructures in the PEEX domain. The PEEX modeling Platform is characterized by a complex seamless integrated Earth System Modeling (ESM) approach, in combination with specific models of different processes and elements of the system, acting on different temporal and spatial scales. The ensemble approach is taken to the integration of modeling results from different models, participants and countries. PEEX utilizes the full potential of a hierarchy of models: scenario analysis, inverse modeling, and modeling based on measurement needs and processes. The models are validated and constrained by available in-situ and remote sensing data of various spatial and temporal scales using data assimilation and top-down modeling. The analyses of the anticipated large volumes of data produced by available models and sensors will be supported by a dedicated virtual research environment developed for these purposes.
Petersen, Japke F; Stuiver, Martijn M; Timmermans, Adriana J; Chen, Amy; Zhang, Hongzhen; O'Neill, James P; Deady, Sandra; Vander Poorten, Vincent; Meulemans, Jeroen; Wennerberg, Johan; Skroder, Carl; Day, Andrew T; Koch, Wayne; van den Brekel, Michiel W M
2018-05-01
TNM-classification inadequately estimates patient-specific overall survival (OS). We aimed to improve this by developing a risk-prediction model for patients with advanced larynx cancer. Cohort study. We developed a risk prediction model to estimate the 5-year OS rate based on a cohort of 3,442 patients with T3T4N0N+M0 larynx cancer. The model was internally validated using bootstrapping samples and externally validated on patient data from five external centers (n = 770). The main outcome was performance of the model as tested by discrimination, calibration, and the ability to distinguish risk groups based on tertiles from the derivation dataset. The model performance was compared to a model based on T and N classification only. We included age, gender, T and N classification, and subsite as prognostic variables in the standard model. After external validation, the standard model had a significantly better fit than a model based on T and N classification alone (C statistic, 0.59 vs. 0.55, P model was able to distinguish well among three risk groups based on tertiles of the risk score. Adding treatment modality to the model did not decrease the predictive power. As a post hoc analysis, we tested the added value of comorbidity as scored by American Society of Anesthesiologists score in a subsample, which increased the C statistic to 0.68. A risk prediction model for patients with advanced larynx cancer, consisting of readily available clinical variables, gives more accurate estimations of the estimated 5-year survival rate when compared to a model based on T and N classification alone. 2c. Laryngoscope, 128:1140-1145, 2018. © 2017 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.
Time-Delay Artificial Neural Network Computing Models for Predicting Shelf Life of Processed Cheese
Sumit Goyal; Gyanendra Kumar Goyal
2012-01-01
This paper presents the capability of Time–delay artificial neural network models for predicting shelf life of processed cheese. Datasets were divided into two subsets (30 for training and 6 for validation). Models with single and multi layers were developed and compared with each other. Mean Square Error, Root Mean Square Error, Coefficient of Determination and Nash -
Sutcliffo Coefficient were used as performance evaluators, Time- delay model predicted the shelf life of...
Nmor, Jephtha C; Sunahara, Toshihiko; Goto, Kensuke; Futami, Kyoko; Sonye, George; Akweywa, Peter; Dida, Gabriel; Minakawa, Noboru
2013-01-01
Background Identification of malaria vector breeding sites can enhance control activities. Although associations between malaria vector breeding sites and topography are well recognized, practical models that predict breeding sites from topographic information are lacking. We used topographic variables derived from remotely sensed Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) to model the breeding sites of malaria vectors. We further compared the predictive strength of two different DEMs and evaluated the ...
Wind Speed Prediction Using a Univariate ARIMA Model and a Multivariate NARX Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Erasmo Cadenas
2016-02-01
Full Text Available Two on step ahead wind speed forecasting models were compared. A univariate model was developed using a linear autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA. This method’s performance is well studied for a large number of prediction problems. The other is a multivariate model developed using a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous artificial neural network (NARX. This uses the variables: barometric pressure, air temperature, wind direction and solar radiation or relative humidity, as well as delayed wind speed. Both models were developed from two databases from two sites: an hourly average measurements database from La Mata, Oaxaca, Mexico, and a ten minute average measurements database from Metepec, Hidalgo, Mexico. The main objective was to compare the impact of the various meteorological variables on the performance of the multivariate model of wind speed prediction with respect to the high performance univariate linear model. The NARX model gave better results with improvements on the ARIMA model of between 5.5% and 10. 6% for the hourly database and of between 2.3% and 12.8% for the ten minute database for mean absolute error and mean squared error, respectively.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Guo-Li Chiou
2013-05-01
Full Text Available Although prediction is claimed to be a prime function of mental models, to what extent students can run their mental models to make predictions of physical phenomena remains uncertain. The purpose of this study, therefore, was first to investigate 30 physics students’ mental models of heat convection, and then to examine the relationship between their mental models and predictions of convection-related phenomena. A series of semistructured interviews was conducted to probe the participants’ mental models and predictions of heat convection, and the constant comparative method was adopted for data analysis. The results reveal that the participants held a variety of mental models of heat convection, and nearly half held flawed mental models rather than a scientifically compatible one. In addition, while many participants attempted to run their mental models to make a prediction at the beginning stage of solving an interview problem, the relationship between the models and predictions became increasingly complex as the problem solving process continued. The relationships between mental models and predictions, however, could be better understood by considering the completeness of a mental model, the scale of analyzing mental models, and the retrieval of different formats of mental representations.
Comparative Modelling and Binding Site Prediction of Gp 15 / 400 ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Lymphatic filariasis is a tropical disease caused by filarial parasites Wuchereria bancrofti and Brugia malayi that are transmitted to human beings by mosquitoes. It is evident from previous researches that GP 15 / 400 polyprotein is an important protein found in Wuchereria bancrofti which can be used as good target for ...
Models Predicting Success of Infertility Treatment: A Systematic Review
Zarinara, Alireza; Zeraati, Hojjat; Kamali, Koorosh; Mohammad, Kazem; Shahnazari, Parisa; Akhondi, Mohammad Mehdi
2016-01-01
Background: Infertile couples are faced with problems that affect their marital life. Infertility treatment is expensive and time consuming and occasionally isn’t simply possible. Prediction models for infertility treatment have been proposed and prediction of treatment success is a new field in infertility treatment. Because prediction of treatment success is a new need for infertile couples, this paper reviewed previous studies for catching a general concept in applicability of the models. Methods: This study was conducted as a systematic review at Avicenna Research Institute in 2015. Six data bases were searched based on WHO definitions and MESH key words. Papers about prediction models in infertility were evaluated. Results: Eighty one papers were eligible for the study. Papers covered years after 1986 and studies were designed retrospectively and prospectively. IVF prediction models have more shares in papers. Most common predictors were age, duration of infertility, ovarian and tubal problems. Conclusion: Prediction model can be clinically applied if the model can be statistically evaluated and has a good validation for treatment success. To achieve better results, the physician and the couples’ needs estimation for treatment success rate were based on history, the examination and clinical tests. Models must be checked for theoretical approach and appropriate validation. The privileges for applying the prediction models are the decrease in the cost and time, avoiding painful treatment of patients, assessment of treatment approach for physicians and decision making for health managers. The selection of the approach for designing and using these models is inevitable. PMID:27141461
Towards a generalized energy prediction model for machine tools.
Bhinge, Raunak; Park, Jinkyoo; Law, Kincho H; Dornfeld, David A; Helu, Moneer; Rachuri, Sudarsan
2017-04-01
Energy prediction of machine tools can deliver many advantages to a manufacturing enterprise, ranging from energy-efficient process planning to machine tool monitoring. Physics-based, energy prediction models have been proposed in the past to understand the energy usage pattern of a machine tool. However, uncertainties in both the machine and the operating environment make it difficult to predict the energy consumption of the target machine reliably. Taking advantage of the opportunity to collect extensive, contextual, energy-consumption data, we discuss a data-driven approach to develop an energy prediction model of a machine tool in this paper. First, we present a methodology that can efficiently and effectively collect and process data extracted from a machine tool and its sensors. We then present a data-driven model that can be used to predict the energy consumption of the machine tool for machining a generic part. Specifically, we use Gaussian Process (GP) Regression, a non-parametric machine-learning technique, to develop the prediction model. The energy prediction model is then generalized over multiple process parameters and operations. Finally, we apply this generalized model with a method to assess uncertainty intervals to predict the energy consumed to machine any part using a Mori Seiki NVD1500 machine tool. Furthermore, the same model can be used during process planning to optimize the energy-efficiency of a machining process.
ANFIS modeling for prediction of particle motions in fluid flows
Safdari, Arman; Kim, Kyung Chun
2015-11-01
Accurate dynamic analysis of parcel of solid particles driven in fluid flow system is of interest for many natural and industrial applications such as sedimentation process, study of cloud particles in atmosphere, etc. In this paper, numerical modeling of solid particles in incompressible flow using Eulerian-Lagrangian approach is carried out to investigate the dynamic behavior of particles in different flow conditions; channel and cavity flow. Although modern computers have been well developed, the high computational time and costs for this kind of problems are still demanded. The Lattice Boltzmann Method (LBM) is used to simulate fluid flows and combined with the Lagrangian approach to predict the motion of particles in the range of masses. Some particles are selected, and subjected to Adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to predict the trajectory of moving solid particles. Using a hybrid learning procedure from computational particle movement, the ANFIS can construct an input-output mapping based on fuzzy if-then rules and stipulated computational fluid dynamics prediction pairs. The obtained results from ANFIS algorithm is validated and compared with the set of benchmark data provided based on point-like approach coupled with the LBM method.
Automatic prediction of catalytic residues by modeling residue structural neighborhood
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Passerini Andrea
2010-03-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Prediction of catalytic residues is a major step in characterizing the function of enzymes. In its simpler formulation, the problem can be cast into a binary classification task at the residue level, by predicting whether the residue is directly involved in the catalytic process. The task is quite hard also when structural information is available, due to the rather wide range of roles a functional residue can play and to the large imbalance between the number of catalytic and non-catalytic residues. Results We developed an effective representation of structural information by modeling spherical regions around candidate residues, and extracting statistics on the properties of their content such as physico-chemical properties, atomic density, flexibility, presence of water molecules. We trained an SVM classifier combining our features with sequence-based information and previously developed 3D features, and compared its performance with the most recent state-of-the-art approaches on different benchmark datasets. We further analyzed the discriminant power of the information provided by the presence of heterogens in the residue neighborhood. Conclusions Our structure-based method achieves consistent improvements on all tested datasets over both sequence-based and structure-based state-of-the-art approaches. Structural neighborhood information is shown to be responsible for such results, and predicting the presence of nearby heterogens seems to be a promising direction for further improvements.
Poisson Mixture Regression Models for Heart Disease Prediction
Erol, Hamza
2016-01-01
Early heart disease control can be achieved by high disease prediction and diagnosis efficiency. This paper focuses on the use of model based clustering techniques to predict and diagnose heart disease via Poisson mixture regression models. Analysis and application of Poisson mixture regression models is here addressed under two different classes: standard and concomitant variable mixture regression models. Results show that a two-component concomitant variable Poisson mixture regression model predicts heart disease better than both the standard Poisson mixture regression model and the ordinary general linear Poisson regression model due to its low Bayesian Information Criteria value. Furthermore, a Zero Inflated Poisson Mixture Regression model turned out to be the best model for heart prediction over all models as it both clusters individuals into high or low risk category and predicts rate to heart disease componentwise given clusters available. It is deduced that heart disease prediction can be effectively done by identifying the major risks componentwise using Poisson mixture regression model. PMID:27999611
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jimmy Boon Som Ong
Full Text Available The "classical model" for sexually transmitted infections treats partnerships as instantaneous events summarized by partner change rates, while individual-based and pair models explicitly account for time within partnerships and gaps between partnerships. We compared predictions from the classical and pair models over a range of partnership and gap combinations. While the former predicted similar or marginally higher prevalence at the shortest partnership lengths, the latter predicted self-sustaining transmission for gonorrhoea (GC and Chlamydia (CT over much broader partnership and gap combinations. Predictions on the critical level of condom use (C(c required to prevent transmission also differed substantially when using the same parameters. When calibrated to give the same disease prevalence as the pair model by adjusting the infectious duration for GC and CT, and by adjusting transmission probabilities for HIV, the classical model then predicted much higher C(c values for GC and CT, while C(c predictions for HIV were fairly close. In conclusion, the two approaches give different predictions over potentially important combinations of partnership and gap lengths. Assuming that it is more correct to explicitly model partnerships and gaps, then pair or individual-based models may be needed for GC and CT since model calibration does not resolve the differences.
Comparative Study of Different Methods for the Prediction of Drug-Polymer Solubility
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Knopp, Matthias Manne; Tajber, Lidia; Tian, Yiwei
2015-01-01
ranked the predicted solubilities in the same order, except for the felodipine-PVP system. Furthermore, the magnitude of the predicted solubilities from the recrystallization method and melting point depression method correlated well with the estimates based on the solubility in the liquid analogues......In this study, a comparison of different methods to predict drug-polymer solubility was carried out on binary systems consisting of five model drugs (paracetamol, chloramphenicol, celecoxib, indomethacin, and felodipine) and polyvinylpyrrolidone/vinyl acetate copolymers (PVP/VA) of different...... monomer weight ratios. The drug-polymer solubility at 25 °C was predicted using the Flory-Huggins model, from data obtained at elevated temperature using thermal analysis methods based on the recrystallization of a supersaturated amorphous solid dispersion and two variations of the melting point...
Applications of modeling in polymer-property prediction
Case, F. H.
1996-08-01
A number of molecular modeling techniques have been applied for the prediction of polymer properties and behavior. Five examples illustrate the range of methodologies used. A simple atomistic simulation of small polymer fragments is used to estimate drug compatibility with a polymer matrix. The analysis of molecular dynamics results from a more complex model of a swollen hydrogel system is used to study gas diffusion in contact lenses. Statistical mechanics are used to predict conformation dependent properties — an example is the prediction of liquid-crystal formation. The effect of the molecular weight distribution on phase separation in polyalkanes is predicted using thermodynamic models. In some cases, the properties of interest cannot be directly predicted using simulation methods or polymer theory. Correlation methods may be used to bridge the gap between molecular structure and macroscopic properties. The final example shows how connectivity-indices-based quantitative structure-property relationships were used to predict properties for candidate polyimids in an electronics application.
Artificial Neural Network Model for Predicting Compressive
Salim T. Yousif; Salwa M. Abdullah
2013-01-01
Compressive strength of concrete is a commonly used criterion in evaluating concrete. Although testing of the compressive strength of concrete specimens is done routinely, it is performed on the 28th day after concrete placement. Therefore, strength estimation of concrete at early time is highly desirable. This study presents the effort in applying neural network-based system identification techniques to predict the compressive strength of concrete based on concrete mix proportions, maximum...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Novichkov, Pavel S.; Rodionov, Dmitry A.; Stavrovskaya, Elena D.; Novichkova, Elena S.; Kazakov, Alexey E.; Gelfand, Mikhail S.; Arkin, Adam P.; Mironov, Andrey A.; Dubchak, Inna
2010-05-26
RegPredict web server is designed to provide comparative genomics tools for reconstruction and analysis of microbial regulons using comparative genomics approach. The server allows the user to rapidly generate reference sets of regulons and regulatory motif profiles in a group of prokaryotic genomes. The new concept of a cluster of co-regulated orthologous operons allows the user to distribute the analysis of large regulons and to perform the comparative analysis of multiple clusters independently. Two major workflows currently implemented in RegPredict are: (i) regulon reconstruction for a known regulatory motif and (ii) ab initio inference of a novel regulon using several scenarios for the generation of starting gene sets. RegPredict provides a comprehensive collection of manually curated positional weight matrices of regulatory motifs. It is based on genomic sequences, ortholog and operon predictions from the MicrobesOnline. An interactive web interface of RegPredict integrates and presents diverse genomic and functional information about the candidate regulon members from several web resources. RegPredict is freely accessible at http://regpredict.lbl.gov.
Improving prediction models with new markers: A comparison of updating strategies
D. Nieboer (Daan); Y. Vergouwe (Yvonne); D. Ankerst (Donna); M.J. Roobol-Bouts (Monique); E.W. Steyerberg (Ewout)
2016-01-01
textabstractBackground: New markers hold the promise of improving risk prediction for individual patients. We aimed to compare the performance of different strategies to extend a previously developed prediction model with a new marker. Methods: Our motivating example was the extension of a risk
Experimental real-time multi-model ensemble (MME) prediction of ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Realistic simulation/prediction of the Asian summer monsoon rainfall on various space–time scales is a challenging scientific task. Compared to mid-latitudes, a proportional skill improvement in the prediction of monsoon rainfall in the medium range has not happened in recent years. Global models and data assimilation ...
Predictive Distribution of the Dirichlet Mixture Model by the Local Variational Inference Method
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ma, Zhanyu; Leijon, Arne; Tan, Zheng-Hua
2014-01-01
In Bayesian analysis of a statistical model, the predictive distribution is obtained by marginalizing over the parameters with their posterior distributions. Compared to the frequently used point estimate plug-in method, the predictive distribution leads to a more reliable result in calculating t...
Korean risk assessment model for breast cancer risk prediction.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Boyoung Park
Full Text Available PURPOSE: We evaluated the performance of the Gail model for a Korean population and developed a Korean breast cancer risk assessment tool (KoBCRAT based upon equations developed for the Gail model for predicting breast cancer risk. METHODS: Using 3,789 sets of cases and controls, risk factors for breast cancer among Koreans were identified. Individual probabilities were projected using Gail's equations and Korean hazard data. We compared the 5-year and lifetime risk produced using the modified Gail model which applied Korean incidence and mortality data and the parameter estimators from the original Gail model with those produced using the KoBCRAT. We validated the KoBCRAT based on the expected/observed breast cancer incidence and area under the curve (AUC using two Korean cohorts: the Korean Multicenter Cancer Cohort (KMCC and National Cancer Center (NCC cohort. RESULTS: The major risk factors under the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at first full-term pregnancy, menopausal status, breastfeeding duration, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise, while those at and over the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at menopause, pregnancy experience, body mass index, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise. The modified Gail model produced lower 5-year risk for the cases than for the controls (p = 0.017, while the KoBCRAT produced higher 5-year and lifetime risk for the cases than for the controls (p<0.001 and <0.001, respectively. The observed incidence of breast cancer in the two cohorts was similar to the expected incidence from the KoBCRAT (KMCC, p = 0.880; NCC, p = 0.878. The AUC using the KoBCRAT was 0.61 for the KMCC and 0.89 for the NCC cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the KoBCRAT is a better tool for predicting the risk of breast cancer in Korean women, especially urban women.
Posterior Predictive Model Checking for Multidimensionality in Item Response Theory
Levy, Roy; Mislevy, Robert J.; Sinharay, Sandip
2009-01-01
If data exhibit multidimensionality, key conditional independence assumptions of unidimensional models do not hold. The current work pursues posterior predictive model checking, a flexible family of model-checking procedures, as a tool for criticizing models due to unaccounted for dimensions in the context of item response theory. Factors…
Model predictive control of a crude oil distillation column
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Morten Hovd
1999-04-01
Full Text Available The project of designing and implementing model based predictive control on the vacuum distillation column at the Nynäshamn Refinery of Nynäs AB is described in this paper. The paper describes in detail the modeling for the model based control, covers the controller implementation, and documents the benefits gained from the model based controller.
Predictive Models for Semiconductor Device Design and Processing
Meyyappan, Meyya; Arnold, James O. (Technical Monitor)
1998-01-01
The device feature size continues to be on a downward trend with a simultaneous upward trend in wafer size to 300 mm. Predictive models are needed more than ever before for this reason. At NASA Ames, a Device and Process Modeling effort has been initiated recently with a view to address these issues. Our activities cover sub-micron device physics, process and equipment modeling, computational chemistry and material science. This talk would outline these efforts and emphasize the interaction among various components. The device physics component is largely based on integrating quantum effects into device simulators. We have two parallel efforts, one based on a quantum mechanics approach and the second, a semiclassical hydrodynamics approach with quantum correction terms. Under the first approach, three different quantum simulators are being developed and compared: a nonequlibrium Green's function (NEGF) approach, Wigner function approach, and a density matrix approach. In this talk, results using various codes will be presented. Our process modeling work focuses primarily on epitaxy and etching using first-principles models coupling reactor level and wafer level features. For the latter, we are using a novel approach based on Level Set theory. Sample results from this effort will also be presented.
A comparative study of click models for web search
Grotov, A.; Chuklin, A.; Markov, I.; Stout, L.; Xumara, F.; de Rijke, M.; Mothe, J.; Savoy, J.; Kamps, J.; Pinel-Sauvagnat, K.; Jones, G.J.F.; SanJuan, E.; Cappellato, L.; Ferro, N.
2015-01-01
Click models have become an essential tool for understanding user behavior on a search engine result page, running simulated experiments and predicting relevance. Dozens of click models have been proposed, all aiming to tackle problems stemming from the complexity of user behavior or of contemporary
Chao, Yu-Long
2012-01-01
Using different measures of self-reported and other-reported environmental behaviour (EB), two important theoretical models explaining EB--Hines, Hungerford and Tomera's model of responsible environmental behaviour (REB) and Ajzen's theory of planned behaviour (TPB)--were compared regarding the fit between model and data, predictive ability,…
Glynn, Robert J; Colditz, Graham A; Tamimi, Rulla M; Chen, Wendy Y; Hankinson, Susan E; Willett, Walter W; Rosner, Bernard
2017-08-01
A breast cancer risk prediction rule previously developed by Rosner and Colditz has reasonable predictive ability. We developed a re-fitted version of this model, based on more than twice as many cases now including women up to age 85, and further extended it to a model that distinguished risk factor prediction of tumors with different estrogen/progesterone receptor status. We compared the calibration and discriminatory ability of the original, the re-fitted, and the type-specific models. Evaluation used data from the Nurses' Health Study during the period 1980-2008, when 4384 incident invasive breast cancers occurred over 1.5 million person-years. Model development used two-thirds of study subjects and validation used one-third. Predicted risks in the validation sample from the original and re-fitted models were highly correlated (ρ = 0.93), but several parameters, notably those related to use of menopausal hormone therapy and age, had different estimates. The re-fitted model was well-calibrated and had an overall C-statistic of 0.65. The extended, type-specific model identified several risk factors with varying associations with occurrence of tumors of different receptor status. However, this extended model relative to the prediction of any breast cancer did not meaningfully reclassify women who developed breast cancer to higher risk categories, nor women remaining cancer free to lower risk categories. The re-fitted Rosner-Colditz model has applicability to risk prediction in women up to age 85, and its discrimination is not improved by consideration of varying associations across tumor subtypes.
H. van der Hoeven; Lisette Schoonhoven; Peter Pickkers; Mark van den Boogaard; R. Donders; Theo van Achterberg
2010-01-01
While delirium is a serious and frequent disorder in intensive care patients, a prediction model is currently not available. We developed and validated a delirium prediction model for adult intensive care patients and determined its additional value compared to the prediction of the caregivers.
Pollock, Bruce E; Storlie, Curtis B; Link, Michael J; Stafford, Scott L; Garces, Yolanda I; Foote, Robert L
2017-03-01
OBJECTIVE Successful stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) for the treatment of arteriovenous malformations (AVMs) results in nidus obliteration without new neurological deficits related to either intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) or radiation-induced complications (RICs). In this study the authors compared 5 AVM grading scales (Spetzler-Martin grading scale, radiosurgery-based AVM score [RBAS], Heidelberg score, Virginia Radiosurgery AVM Scale [VRAS], and proton radiosurgery AVM scale [PRAS]) at predicting outcomes after SRS. METHODS The study group consisted of 381 patients with sporadic AVMs who underwent Gamma Knife SRS between January 1990 and December 2009; none of the patients underwent prior radiation therapy. The primary end point was AVM obliteration without a decline in modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score (excellent outcome). Comparison of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and accuracy was performed between the AVM grading scales and the best linear regression model (generalized linear model, elastic net [GLMnet]). RESULTS The median radiological follow-up after initial SRS was 77 months; the median clinical follow-up was 93 months. AVM obliteration was documented in 297 patients (78.0%). Obliteration was 59% at 4 years and 85% at 8 years. Fifty-five patients (14.4%) had a decline in mRS score secondary to RICs (n = 29, 7.6%) or ICH (n = 26, 6.8%). The mRS score declined by 10% at 4 years and 15% at 8 years. Overall, 274 patients (71.9%) had excellent outcomes. There was no difference between the AUC for the GLMnet (0.69 [95% CI 0.64-0.75]), RBAS (0.68 [95% CI 0.62-0.74]), or PRAS (0.69 [95% CI 0.62-0.74]). Pairwise comparison for accuracy showed no difference between the GLMnet and the RBAS (p = 0.08) or PRAS (p = 0.16), but it did show a significant difference between the GLMnet and the Spetzler-Martin grading system (p compared with the Spetzler-Martin grading scale (p = 0.03 and p = 0.01), Heidelberg score (p = 0.02 and p = 0
Modelling and Predicting Backstroke Start Performance Using Non-Linear And Linear Models
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de Jesus Karla
2018-03-01
Full Text Available Our aim was to compare non-linear and linear mathematical model responses for backstroke start performance prediction. Ten swimmers randomly completed eight 15 m backstroke starts with feet over the wedge, four with hands on the highest horizontal and four on the vertical handgrip. Swimmers were videotaped using a dual media camera set-up, with the starts being performed over an instrumented block with four force plates. Artificial neural networks were applied to predict 5 m start time using kinematic and kinetic variables and to determine the accuracy of the mean absolute percentage error. Artificial neural networks predicted start time more robustly than the linear model with respect to changing training to the validation dataset for the vertical handgrip (3.95 ± 1.67 vs. 5.92 ± 3.27%. Artificial neural networks obtained a smaller mean absolute percentage error than the linear model in the horizontal (0.43 ± 0.19 vs. 0.98 ± 0.19% and vertical handgrip (0.45 ± 0.19 vs. 1.38 ± 0.30% using all input data. The best artificial neural network validation revealed a smaller mean absolute error than the linear model for the horizontal (0.007 vs. 0.04 s and vertical handgrip (0.01 vs. 0.03 s. Artificial neural networks should be used for backstroke 5 m start time prediction due to the quite small differences among the elite level performances.
Modelling and Predicting Backstroke Start Performance Using Non-Linear and Linear Models.
de Jesus, Karla; Ayala, Helon V H; de Jesus, Kelly; Coelho, Leandro Dos S; Medeiros, Alexandre I A; Abraldes, José A; Vaz, Mário A P; Fernandes, Ricardo J; Vilas-Boas, João Paulo
2018-03-01
Our aim was to compare non-linear and linear mathematical model responses for backstroke start performance prediction. Ten swimmers randomly completed eight 15 m backstroke starts with feet over the wedge, four with hands on the highest horizontal and four on the vertical handgrip. Swimmers were videotaped using a dual media camera set-up, with the starts being performed over an instrumented block with four force plates. Artificial neural networks were applied to predict 5 m start time using kinematic and kinetic variables and to determine the accuracy of the mean absolute percentage error. Artificial neural networks predicted start time more robustly than the linear model with respect to changing training to the validation dataset for the vertical handgrip (3.95 ± 1.67 vs. 5.92 ± 3.27%). Artificial neural networks obtained a smaller mean absolute percentage error than the linear model in the horizontal (0.43 ± 0.19 vs. 0.98 ± 0.19%) and vertical handgrip (0.45 ± 0.19 vs. 1.38 ± 0.30%) using all input data. The best artificial neural network validation revealed a smaller mean absolute error than the linear model for the horizontal (0.007 vs. 0.04 s) and vertical handgrip (0.01 vs. 0.03 s). Artificial neural networks should be used for backstroke 5 m start time prediction due to the quite small differences among the elite level performances.
Triedman, John K.; Jolley, Matthew; Stinstra, Jeroen; Brooks, Dana H.; MacLeod, Rob
2008-01-01
ICD implants may be complicated by body size and anatomy. One approach to this problem has been the adoption of creative, extracardiac implant strategies using standard ICD components. Because data on safety or efficacy of such ad hoc implant strategies is lacking, we have developed image-based finite element models (FEMs) to compare electric fields and expected defibrillation thresholds (DFTs) using standard and novel electrode locations. In this paper, we review recently published studies by our group using such models, and progress in meshing strategies to improve efficiency and visualization. Our preliminary observations predict that they may be large changes in DFTs with clinically relevant variations of electrode placement. Extracardiac ICDs of various lead configurations are predicted to be effective in both children and adults. This approach may aid both ICD development and patient-specific optimization of electrode placement, but the simplified nature of current models dictates further development and validation prior to clinical or industrial utilization. PMID:18817926
Predictive models for acute kidney injury following cardiac surgery.
Demirjian, Sevag; Schold, Jesse D; Navia, Jose; Mastracci, Tara M; Paganini, Emil P; Yared, Jean-Pierre; Bashour, Charles A
2012-03-01
Accurate prediction of cardiac surgery-associated acute kidney injury (AKI) would improve clinical decision making and facilitate timely diagnosis and treatment. The aim of the study was to develop predictive models for cardiac surgery-associated AKI using presurgical and combined pre- and intrasurgical variables. Prospective observational cohort. 25,898 patients who underwent cardiac surgery at Cleveland Clinic in 2000-2008. Presurgical and combined pre- and intrasurgical variables were used to develop predictive models. Dialysis therapy and a composite of doubling of serum creatinine level or dialysis therapy within 2 weeks (or discharge if sooner) after cardiac surgery. Incidences of dialysis therapy and the composite of doubling of serum creatinine level or dialysis therapy were 1.7% and 4.3%, respectively. Kidney function parameters were strong independent predictors in all 4 models. Surgical complexity reflected by type and history of previous cardiac surgery were robust predictors in models based on presurgical variables. However, the inclusion of intrasurgical variables accounted for all explained variance by procedure-related information. Models predictive of dialysis therapy showed good calibration and superb discrimination; a combined (pre- and intrasurgical) model performed better than the presurgical model alone (C statistics, 0.910 and 0.875, respectively). Models predictive of the composite end point also had excellent discrimination with both presurgical and combined (pre- and intrasurgical) variables (C statistics, 0.797 and 0.825, respectively). However, the presurgical model predictive of the composite end point showed suboptimal calibration (P predictive models in other cohorts is required before wide-scale application. We developed and internally validated 4 new models that accurately predict cardiac surgery-associated AKI. These models are based on readily available clinical information and can be used for patient counseling, clinical
Predicting chick body mass by artificial intelligence-based models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Patricia Ferreira Ponciano Ferraz
2014-07-01
Full Text Available The objective of this work was to develop, validate, and compare 190 artificial intelligence-based models for predicting the body mass of chicks from 2 to 21 days of age subjected to different duration and intensities of thermal challenge. The experiment was conducted inside four climate-controlled wind tunnels using 210 chicks. A database containing 840 datasets (from 2 to 21-day-old chicks - with the variables dry-bulb air temperature, duration of thermal stress (days, chick age (days, and the daily body mass of chicks - was used for network training, validation, and tests of models based on artificial neural networks (ANNs and neuro-fuzzy networks (NFNs. The ANNs were most accurate in predicting the body mass of chicks from 2 to 21 days of age after they were subjected to the input variables, and they showed an R² of 0.9993 and a standard error of 4.62 g. The ANNs enable the simulation of different scenarios, which can assist in managerial decision-making, and they can be embedded in the heating control systems.
Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pearson, R. G.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Bastos Araujo, Miguel
2006-01-01
algorithm when extrapolating beyond the range of data used to build the model. The effects of these factors should be carefully considered when using this modelling approach to predict species ranges. Main conclusions We highlight an important source of uncertainty in assessments of the impacts of climate......Aim Many attempts to predict the potential range of species rely on environmental niche (or 'bioclimate envelope') modelling, yet the effects of using different niche-based methodologies require further investigation. Here we investigate the impact that the choice of model can have on predictions......, identify key reasons why model output may differ and discuss the implications that model uncertainty has for policy-guiding applications. Location The Western Cape of South Africa. Methods We applied nine of the most widely used modelling techniques to model potential distributions under current...
Explicit Modeling of Ancestry Improves Polygenic Risk Scores and BLUP Prediction.
Chen, Chia-Yen; Han, Jiali; Hunter, David J; Kraft, Peter; Price, Alkes L
2015-09-01
Polygenic prediction using genome-wide SNPs can provide high prediction accuracy for complex traits. Here, we investigate the question of how to account for genetic ancestry when conducting polygenic prediction. We show that the accuracy of polygenic prediction in structured populations may be partly due to genetic ancestry. However, we hypothesized that explicitly modeling ancestry could improve polygenic prediction accuracy. We analyzed three GWAS of hair color (HC), tanning ability (TA), and basal cell carcinoma (BCC) in European Americans (sample size from 7,440 to 9,822) and considered two widely used polygenic prediction approaches: polygenic risk scores (PRSs) and best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP). We compared polygenic prediction without correction for ancestry to polygenic prediction with ancestry as a separate component in the model. In 10-fold cross-validation using the PRS approach, the R(2) for HC increased by 66% (0.0456-0.0755; P ancestry, which prevents ancestry effects from entering into each SNP effect and being overweighted. Surprisingly, explicitly modeling ancestry produces a similar improvement when using the BLUP approach, which fits all SNPs simultaneously in a single variance component and causes ancestry to be underweighted. We validate our findings via simulations, which show that the differences in prediction accuracy will increase in magnitude as sample sizes increase. In summary, our results show that explicitly modeling ancestry can be important in both PRS and BLUP prediction. © 2015 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.
Explicit modeling of ancestry improves polygenic risk scores and BLUP prediction
Chen, Chia-Yen; Han, Jiali; Hunter, David J.; Kraft, Peter; Price, Alkes L.
2016-01-01
Polygenic prediction using genome-wide SNPs can provide high prediction accuracy for complex traits. Here, we investigate the question of how to account for genetic ancestry when conducting polygenic prediction. We show that the accuracy of polygenic prediction in structured populations may be partly due to genetic ancestry. However, we hypothesized that explicitly modeling ancestry could improve polygenic prediction accuracy. We analyzed three GWAS of hair color, tanning ability and basal cell carcinoma (BCC) in European Americans (sample size from 7,440 to 9,822) and considered two widely used polygenic prediction approaches: polygenic risk scores (PRS) and Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (BLUP). We compared polygenic prediction without correction for ancestry to polygenic prediction with ancestry as a separate component in the model. In 10-fold cross-validation using the PRS approach, the R2 for hair color increased by 66% (0.0456 to 0.0755; pancestry, which prevents ancestry effects from entering into each SNP effect and being over-weighted. Surprisingly, explicitly modeling ancestry produces a similar improvement when using the BLUP approach, which fits all SNPs simultaneously in a single variance component and causes ancestry to be underweighted. We validate our findings via simulations, which show that the differences in prediction accuracy will increase in magnitude as sample sizes increase. In summary, our results show that explicitly modeling ancestry can be important in both PRS and BLUP prediction. PMID:25995153
Prediction Model for Gastric Cancer Incidence in Korean Population.
Eom, Bang Wool; Joo, Jungnam; Kim, Sohee; Shin, Aesun; Yang, Hye-Ryung; Park, Junghyun; Choi, Il Ju; Kim, Young-Woo; Kim, Jeongseon; Nam, Byung-Ho
2015-01-01
Predicting high risk groups for gastric cancer and motivating these groups to receive regular checkups is required for the early detection of gastric cancer. The aim of this study is was to develop a prediction model for gastric cancer incidence based on a large population-based cohort in Korea. Based on the National Health Insurance Corporation data, we analyzed 10 major risk factors for gastric cancer. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to develop gender specific prediction models for gastric cancer development, and the performance of the developed model in terms of discrimination and calibration was also validated using an independent cohort. Discrimination ability was evaluated using Harrell's C-statistics, and the calibration was evaluated using a calibration plot and slope. During a median of 11.4 years of follow-up, 19,465 (1.4%) and 5,579 (0.7%) newly developed gastric cancer cases were observed among 1,372,424 men and 804,077 women, respectively. The prediction models included age, BMI, family history, meal regularity, salt preference, alcohol consumption, smoking and physical activity for men, and age, BMI, family history, salt preference, alcohol consumption, and smoking for women. This prediction model showed good accuracy and predictability in both the developing and validation cohorts (C-statistics: 0.764 for men, 0.706 for women). In this study, a prediction model for gastric cancer incidence was developed that displayed a good performance.
AN EFFICIENT PATIENT INFLOW PREDICTION MODEL FOR HOSPITAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kottalanka Srikanth
2017-07-01
Full Text Available There has been increasing demand in improving service provisioning in hospital resources management. Hospital industries work with strict budget constraint at the same time assures quality care. To achieve quality care with budget constraint an efficient prediction model is required. Recently there has been various time series based prediction model has been proposed to manage hospital resources such ambulance monitoring, emergency care and so on. These models are not efficient as they do not consider the nature of scenario such climate condition etc. To address this artificial intelligence is adopted. The issues with existing prediction are that the training suffers from local optima error. This induces overhead and affects the accuracy in prediction. To overcome the local minima error, this work presents a patient inflow prediction model by adopting resilient backpropagation neural network. Experiment are conducted to evaluate the performance of proposed model inter of RMSE and MAPE. The outcome shows the proposed model reduces RMSE and MAPE over existing back propagation based artificial neural network. The overall outcomes show the proposed prediction model improves the accuracy of prediction which aid in improving the quality of health care management.
Risk Prediction Model for Severe Postoperative Complication in Bariatric Surgery.
Stenberg, Erik; Cao, Yang; Szabo, Eva; Näslund, Erik; Näslund, Ingmar; Ottosson, Johan
2018-01-12
Factors associated with risk for adverse outcome are important considerations in the preoperative assessment of patients for bariatric surgery. As yet, prediction models based on preoperative risk factors have not been able to predict adverse outcome sufficiently. This study aimed to identify preoperative risk factors and to construct a risk prediction model based on these. Patients who underwent a bariatric surgical procedure in Sweden between 2010 and 2014 were identified from the Scandinavian Obesity Surgery Registry (SOReg). Associations between preoperative potential risk factors and severe postoperative complications were analysed using a logistic regression model. A multivariate model for risk prediction was created and validated in the SOReg for patients who underwent bariatric surgery in Sweden, 2015. Revision surgery (standardized OR 1.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.14-0.24, p prediction model. Despite high specificity, the sensitivity of the model was low. Revision surgery, high age, low BMI, large waist circumference, and dyspepsia/GERD were associated with an increased risk for severe postoperative complication. The prediction model based on these factors, however, had a sensitivity that was too low to predict risk in the individual patient case.
Prediction Model for Gastric Cancer Incidence in Korean Population.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bang Wool Eom
Full Text Available Predicting high risk groups for gastric cancer and motivating these groups to receive regular checkups is required for the early detection of gastric cancer. The aim of this study is was to develop a prediction model for gastric cancer incidence based on a large population-based cohort in Korea.Based on the National Health Insurance Corporation data, we analyzed 10 major risk factors for gastric cancer. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to develop gender specific prediction models for gastric cancer development, and the performance of the developed model in terms of discrimination and calibration was also validated using an independent cohort. Discrimination ability was evaluated using Harrell's C-statistics, and the calibration was evaluated using a calibration plot and slope.During a median of 11.4 years of follow-up, 19,465 (1.4% and 5,579 (0.7% newly developed gastric cancer cases were observed among 1,372,424 men and 804,077 women, respectively. The prediction models included age, BMI, family history, meal regularity, salt preference, alcohol consumption, smoking and physical activity for men, and age, BMI, family history, salt preference, alcohol consumption, and smoking for women. This prediction model showed good accuracy and predictability in both the developing and validation cohorts (C-statistics: 0.764 for men, 0.706 for women.In this study, a prediction model for gastric cancer incidence was developed that displayed a good performance.
Krasnoshchekov, Sergey V.; Schutski, Roman S.; Craig, Norman C.; Sibaev, Marat; Crittenden, Deborah L.
2018-02-01
Three dihalogenated methane derivatives (CH2F2, CH2FCl, and CH2Cl2) were used as model systems to compare and assess the accuracy of two different approaches for predicting observed fundamental frequencies: canonical operator Van Vleck vibrational perturbation theory (CVPT) and vibrational configuration interaction (VCI). For convenience and consistency, both methods employ the Watson Hamiltonian in rectilinear normal coordinates, expanding the potential energy surface (PES) as a Taylor series about equilibrium and constructing the wavefunction from a harmonic oscillator product basis. At the highest levels of theory considered here, fourth-order CVPT and VCI in a harmonic oscillator basis with up to 10 quanta of vibrational excitation in conjunction with a 4-mode representation sextic force field (SFF-4MR) computed at MP2/cc-pVTZ with replacement CCSD(T)/aug-cc-pVQZ harmonic force constants, the agreement between computed fundamentals is closer to 0.3 cm-1 on average, with a maximum difference of 1.7 cm-1. The major remaining accuracy-limiting factors are the accuracy of the underlying electronic structure model, followed by the incompleteness of the PES expansion. Nonetheless, computed and experimental fundamentals agree to within 5 cm-1, with an average difference of 2 cm-1, confirming the utility and accuracy of both theoretical models. One exception to this rule is the formally IR-inactive but weakly allowed through Coriolis-coupling H-C-H out-of-plane twisting mode of dichloromethane, whose spectrum we therefore revisit and reassign. We also investigate convergence with respect to order of CVPT, VCI excitation level, and order of PES expansion, concluding that premature truncation substantially decreases accuracy, although VCI(6)/SFF-4MR results are still of acceptable accuracy, and some error cancellation is observed with CVPT2 using a quartic force field.
Predictive SIRT dosimetry based on a territorial model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nadine Spahr
2017-10-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background In the planning of selective internal radiation therapy (SIRT for liver cancer treatment, one major aspect is to determine the prescribed activity and to estimate the resulting absorbed dose inside normal liver and tumor tissue. An optimized partition model for SIRT dosimetry based on arterial liver territories is proposed. This model is dedicated to characterize the variability of dose within the whole liver. For an arbitrary partition, the generalized absorbed dose is derived from the classical partition model. This enables to consider normal liver partitions for each arterial perfusion supply area and one partition for each tumor for activity and dose calculation. The proposed method excludes a margin of 11 mm emitting range around tumor volumes from normal liver to investigate the impact on activity calculation. Activity and dose calculation was performed for five patients using the body-surface-area (BSA method, the classical and territorial partition model. Results The territorial model reaches smaller normal liver doses and significant higher tumor doses compared to the classical partition model. The exclusion of a small region around tumors has a significant impact on mean liver dose. Determined tumor activities for the proposed method are higher in all patients when limited by normal liver dose. Activity calculation based on BSA achieves in all cases the lowest amount. Conclusions The territorial model provides a more local and patient-individual dose distribution in normal liver taking into account arterial supply areas. This proposed arterial liver territory-based partition model may be used for SPECT-independent activity calculation and dose prediction under the condition of an artery-based simulation for particle distribution.
Femtocells Sharing Management using mobility prediction model
Barth, Dominique; Choutri, Amira; Kloul, Leila; Marcé, Olivier
2013-01-01
Bandwidth sharing paradigm constitutes an incentive solution for the serious capacity management problem faced by operators as femtocells owners are able to offer a QoS guaranteed network access to mobile users in their femtocell coverage. In this paper, we consider a technico-economic bandwidth sharing model based on a reinforcement learning algorithm. Because such a model does not allow the convergence of the learning algorithm, due to the small size of the femtocells, the mobile users velo...
Validating predictions from climate envelope models
Watling, J.; Bucklin, D.; Speroterra, C.; Brandt, L.; Cabal, C.; Romañach, Stephanie S.; Mazzotti, Frank J.
2013-01-01
Climate envelope models are a potentially important conservation tool, but their ability to accurately forecast species’ distributional shifts using independent survey data has not been fully evaluated. We created climate envelope models for 12 species of North American breeding birds previously shown to have experienced poleward range shifts. For each species, we evaluated three different approaches to climate envelope modeling that differed in the way they treated climate-induced range expansion and contraction, using random forests and maximum entropy modeling algorithms. All models were calibrated using occurrence data from 1967–1971 (t1) and evaluated using occurrence data from 1998–2002 (t2). Model sensitivity (the ability to correctly classify species presences) was greater using the maximum entropy algorithm than the random forest algorithm. Although sensitivity did not differ significantly among approaches, for many species, sensitivity was maximized using a hybrid approach that assumed range expansion, but not contraction, in t2. Species for which the hybrid approach resulted in the greatest improvement in sensitivity have been reported from more land cover types than species for which there was little difference in sensitivity between hybrid and dynamic approaches, suggesting that habitat generalists may be buffered somewhat against climate-induced range contractions. Specificity (the ability to correctly classify species absences) was maximized using the random forest algorithm and was lowest using the hybrid approach. Overall, our results suggest cautious optimism for the use of climate envelope models to forecast range shifts, but also underscore the importance of considering non-climate drivers of species range limits. The use of alternative climate envelope models that make different assumptions about range expansion and contraction is a new and potentially useful way to help inform our understanding of climate change effects on species.
Validating predictions from climate envelope models.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
James I Watling
Full Text Available Climate envelope models are a potentially important conservation tool, but their ability to accurately forecast species' distributional shifts using independent survey data has not been fully evaluated. We created climate envelope models for 12 species of North American breeding birds previously shown to have experienced poleward range shifts. For each species, we evaluated three different approaches to climate envelope modeling that differed in the way they treated climate-induced range expansion and contraction, using random forests and maximum entropy modeling algorithms. All models were calibrated using occurrence data from 1967-1971 (t1 and evaluated using occurrence data from 1998-2002 (t2. Model sensitivity (the ability to correctly classify species presences was greater using the maximum entropy algorithm than the random forest algorithm. Although sensitivity did not differ significantly among approaches, for many species, sensitivity was maximized using a hybrid approach that assumed range expansion, but not contraction, in t2. Species for which the hybrid approach resulted in the greatest improvement in sensitivity have been reported from more land cover types than species for which there was little difference in sensitivity between hybrid and dynamic approaches, suggesting that habitat generalists may be buffered somewhat against climate-induced range contractions. Specificity (the ability to correctly classify species absences was maximized using the random forest algorithm and was lowest using the hybrid approach. Overall, our results suggest cautious optimism for the use of climate envelope models to forecast range shifts, but also underscore the importance of considering non-climate drivers of species range limits. The use of alternative climate envelope models that make different assumptions about range expansion and contraction is a new and potentially useful way to help inform our understanding of climate change effects on
How to derive and validate clinical prediction models for use in intensive care medicine.
Labarère, José; Renaud, Bertrand; Bertrand, Renaud; Fine, Michael J
2014-04-01
Clinical prediction models are formal combinations of historical, physical examination and laboratory or radiographic test data elements designed to accurately estimate the probability that a specific illness is present (diagnostic model), will respond to a form of treatment (therapeutic model) or will have a well-defined outcome (prognostic model) in an individual patient. They are derived and validated using empirical data and used to assist physicians in their clinical decision-making that requires a quantitative assessment of diagnostic, therapeutic or prognostic probabilities at the bedside. To provide intensivists with a comprehensive overview of the empirical development and testing phases that a clinical prediction model must satisfy before its implementation into clinical practice. The development of a clinical prediction model encompasses three consecutive phases, namely derivation, (external) validation and impact analysis. The derivation phase consists of building a multivariable model, estimating its apparent predictive performance in terms of both calibration and discrimination, and assessing the potential for statistical over-fitting using internal validation techniques (i.e. split-sampling, cross-validation or bootstrapping). External validation consists of testing the predictive performance of a model by assessing its calibration and discrimination in different but plausibly related patients. Impact analysis involves comparative research [i.e. (cluster) randomized trials] to determine whether clinical use of a prediction model affects physician practices, patient outcomes or the cost of healthcare delivery. This narrative review introduces a checklist of 19 items designed to help intensivists develop and transparently report valid clinical prediction models.
North Atlantic climate model bias influence on multiyear predictability
Wu, Y.; Park, T.; Park, W.; Latif, M.
2018-01-01
The influences of North Atlantic biases on multiyear predictability of unforced surface air temperature (SAT) variability are examined in the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). By employing a freshwater flux correction over the North Atlantic to the model, which strongly alleviates both North Atlantic sea surface salinity (SSS) and sea surface temperature (SST) biases, the freshwater flux-corrected integration depicts significantly enhanced multiyear SAT predictability in the North Atlantic sector in comparison to the uncorrected one. The enhanced SAT predictability in the corrected integration is due to a stronger and more variable Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its enhanced influence on North Atlantic SST. Results obtained from preindustrial control integrations of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) support the findings obtained from the KCM: models with large North Atlantic biases tend to have a weak AMOC influence on SAT and exhibit a smaller SAT predictability over the North Atlantic sector.
Evaluating a prediction model for infant hearing loss.
Lieu, Judith E C; Ratnaraj, Felicia; Ead, Banan
2013-11-01
The objective of this study was to determine whether a prognostic model using risk factors for hearing loss could predict the chance that infants who failed a newborn hearing screen would subsequently be found to have hearing loss diagnosed by auditory brainstem response testing. Individual retrospective case-control study. We studied 229 infants with hearing loss compared with 458 infants with normal hearing. All infants had undergone natural sleep or sedated auditory brainstem response, predominantly for not passing a newborn hearing screen. Risk factors, birth history, and other information were extracted via medical record review. Multiple logistic regression analyses identified independent predictors of hearing loss. Four risk factors were independently predictive of hearing loss diagnosed by sleep or sedated auditory brainstem response: prematurity, 5-minute APGAR score ≤ 6, intracranial complication, and craniofacial abnormality. A prognostic model developed from these risk factors was associated with a 15% rate of hearing loss in stage I, 52% rate of hearing loss in stage II, and 96% rate of hearing loss in stage III. The presence of any one of four independently predictive risk factors in infants who did not pass newborn hearing screen was associated with a 50% rate of hearing loss; having three or more was associated with a 90% rate of hearing loss. Knowing that an infant is at high risk of hearing loss can motivate parents to follow up with diagnostic auditory brainstem response testing so that early identification can lead to early intervention. Copyright © 2013 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.
Osman, Marisol; Vera, C. S.
2017-10-01
This work presents an assessment of the predictability and skill of climate anomalies over South America. The study was made considering a multi-model ensemble of seasonal forecasts for surface air temperature, precipitation and regional circulation, from coupled global circulation models included in the Climate Historical Forecast Project. Predictability was evaluated through the estimation of the signal-to-total variance ratio while prediction skill was assessed computing anomaly correlation coefficients. Both indicators present over the continent higher values at the tropics than at the extratropics for both, surface air temperature and precipitation. Moreover, predictability and prediction skill for temperature are slightly higher in DJF than in JJA while for precipitation they exhibit similar levels in both seasons. The largest values of predictability and skill for both variables and seasons are found over northwestern South America while modest but still significant values for extratropical precipitation at southeastern South America and the extratropical Andes. The predictability levels in ENSO years of both variables are slightly higher, although with the same spatial distribution, than that obtained considering all years. Nevertheless, predictability at the tropics for both variables and seasons diminishes in both warm and cold ENSO years respect to that in all years. The latter can be attributed to changes in signal rather than in the noise. Predictability and prediction skill for low-level winds and upper-level zonal winds over South America was also assessed. Maximum levels of predictability for low-level winds were found were maximum mean values are observed, i.e. the regions associated with the equatorial trade winds, the midlatitudes westerlies and the South American Low-Level Jet. Predictability maxima for upper-level zonal winds locate where the subtropical jet peaks. Seasonal changes in wind predictability are observed that seem to be related to
Prediction skill of rainstorm events over India in the TIGGE weather prediction models
Karuna Sagar, S.; Rajeevan, M.; Vijaya Bhaskara Rao, S.; Mitra, A. K.
2017-12-01
Extreme rainfall events pose a serious threat of leading to severe floods in many countries worldwide. Therefore, advance prediction of its occurrence and spatial distribution is very essential. In this paper, an analysis has been made to assess the skill of numerical weather prediction models in predicting rainstorms over India. Using gridded daily rainfall data set and objective criteria, 15 rainstorms were identified during the monsoon season (June to September). The analysis was made using three TIGGE (THe Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) models. The models considered are the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the UK Met Office (UKMO). Verification of the TIGGE models for 43 observed rainstorm days from 15 rainstorm events has been made for the period 2007-2015. The comparison reveals that rainstorm events are predictable up to 5 days in advance, however with a bias in spatial distribution and intensity. The statistical parameters like mean error (ME) or Bias, root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (CC) have been computed over the rainstorm region using the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean. The study reveals that the spread is large in ECMWF and UKMO followed by the NCEP model. Though the ensemble spread is quite small in NCEP, the ensemble member averages are not well predicted. The rank histograms suggest that the forecasts are under prediction. The modified Contiguous Rain Area (CRA) technique was used to verify the spatial as well as the quantitative skill of the TIGGE models. Overall, the contribution from the displacement and pattern errors to the total RMSE is found to be more in magnitude. The volume error increases from 24 hr forecast to 48 hr forecast in all the three models.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Elizabeth A. Becker
2016-02-01
Full Text Available Species distribution models are now widely used in conservation and management to predict suitable habitat for protected marine species. The primary sources of dynamic habitat data have been in situ and remotely sensed oceanic variables (both are considered “measured data”, but now ocean models can provide historical estimates and forecast predictions of relevant habitat variables such as temperature, salinity, and mixed layer depth. To assess the performance of modeled ocean data in species distribution models, we present a case study for cetaceans that compares models based on output from a data assimilative implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS to those based on measured data. Specifically, we used seven years of cetacean line-transect survey data collected between 1991 and 2009 to develop predictive habitat-based models of cetacean density for 11 species in the California Current Ecosystem. Two different generalized additive models were compared: one built with a full suite of ROMS output and another built with a full suite of measured data. Model performance was assessed using the percentage of explained deviance, root mean squared error (RMSE, observed to predicted density ratios, and visual inspection of predicted and observed distributions. Predicted distribution patterns were similar for models using ROMS output and measured data, and showed good concordance between observed sightings and model predictions. Quantitative measures of predictive ability were also similar between model types, and RMSE values were almost identical. The overall demonstrated success of the ROMS-based models opens new opportunities for dynamic species management and biodiversity monitoring because ROMS output is available in near real time and can be forecast.
McCarthy, Linda C; Newcombe, Paul J; Whittaker, John C; Wurzelmann, John I; Fries, Michael A; Burnham, Nancy R; Cai, Gengqian; Stinnett, Sandra W; Trivedi, Trupti M; Xu, Chun-Fang
2012-09-01
To develop comprehensive predictive models for choroidal neovascularization (CNV) and geographic atrophy (GA) incidence within 3 years that can be applied realistically to clinical practice. Retrospective evaluation of data from a longitudinal study to develop and validate predictive models of CNV and GA. The predictive performance of clinical, environmental, demographic, and genetic risk factors was explored in regression models, using data from both eyes of 2011 subjects from the Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS). The performance of predictive models was compared using 10-fold cross-validated receiver operating characteristic curves in the training data, followed by comparisons in an independent validation dataset (1410 AREDS subjects). Bayesian trial simulations were used to compare the usefulness of predictive models to screen patients for inclusion in prevention clinical trials. Logistic regression models that included clinical, demographic, and environmental factors had better predictive performance for 3-year CNV and GA incidence (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.87 and 0.89, respectively), compared with simple clinical criteria (AREDS simplified severity scale). Although genetic markers were associated significantly with 3-year CNV (CFH: Y402H; ARMS2: A69S) and GA incidence (CFH: Y402H), the inclusion of genetic factors in the models provided only marginal improvements in predictive performance. The logistic regression models combine good predictive performance with greater flexibility to optimize clinical trial design compared with simple clinical models (AREDS simplified severity scale). The benefit of including genetic factors to screen patients for recruitment to CNV prevention studies is marginal and is dependent on individual clinical trial economics. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
New Approaches for Channel Prediction Based on Sinusoidal Modeling
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ekman Torbjörn
2007-01-01
Full Text Available Long-range channel prediction is considered to be one of the most important enabling technologies to future wireless communication systems. The prediction of Rayleigh fading channels is studied in the frame of sinusoidal modeling in this paper. A stochastic sinusoidal model to represent a Rayleigh fading channel is proposed. Three different predictors based on the statistical sinusoidal model are proposed. These methods outperform the standard linear predictor (LP in Monte Carlo simulations, but underperform with real measurement data, probably due to nonstationary model parameters. To mitigate these modeling errors, a joint moving average and sinusoidal (JMAS prediction model and the associated joint least-squares (LS predictor are proposed. It combines the sinusoidal m