AN EFFICIENT PATIENT INFLOW PREDICTION MODEL FOR HOSPITAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kottalanka Srikanth
2017-07-01
Full Text Available There has been increasing demand in improving service provisioning in hospital resources management. Hospital industries work with strict budget constraint at the same time assures quality care. To achieve quality care with budget constraint an efficient prediction model is required. Recently there has been various time series based prediction model has been proposed to manage hospital resources such ambulance monitoring, emergency care and so on. These models are not efficient as they do not consider the nature of scenario such climate condition etc. To address this artificial intelligence is adopted. The issues with existing prediction are that the training suffers from local optima error. This induces overhead and affects the accuracy in prediction. To overcome the local minima error, this work presents a patient inflow prediction model by adopting resilient backpropagation neural network. Experiment are conducted to evaluate the performance of proposed model inter of RMSE and MAPE. The outcome shows the proposed model reduces RMSE and MAPE over existing back propagation based artificial neural network. The overall outcomes show the proposed prediction model improves the accuracy of prediction which aid in improving the quality of health care management.
An Efficient Deterministic Approach to Model-based Prediction Uncertainty
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics deals with the prediction of the end of life (EOL) of a system. EOL is a random variable, due to the presence of process noise and uncertainty in the...
Takács, Gergely
2012-01-01
Real-time model predictive controller (MPC) implementation in active vibration control (AVC) is often rendered difficult by fast sampling speeds and extensive actuator-deformation asymmetry. If the control of lightly damped mechanical structures is assumed, the region of attraction containing the set of allowable initial conditions requires a large prediction horizon, making the already computationally demanding on-line process even more complex. Model Predictive Vibration Control provides insight into the predictive control of lightly damped vibrating structures by exploring computationally efficient algorithms which are capable of low frequency vibration control with guaranteed stability and constraint feasibility. In addition to a theoretical primer on active vibration damping and model predictive control, Model Predictive Vibration Control provides a guide through the necessary steps in understanding the founding ideas of predictive control applied in AVC such as: · the implementation of ...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Larsen, Ulrik; Pierobon, Leonardo; Wronski, Jorrit
2014-01-01
to power. In this study we propose four linear regression models to predict the maximum obtainable thermal efficiency for simple and recuperated ORCs. A previously derived methodology is able to determine the maximum thermal efficiency among many combinations of fluids and processes, given the boundary...... conditions of the process. Hundreds of optimised cases with varied design parameters are used as observations in four multiple regression analyses. We analyse the model assumptions, prediction abilities and extrapolations, and compare the results with recent studies in the literature. The models...
Lin, M.; Katul, G. G.; Khlystov, A.
2012-05-01
The removal of ultrafine particles (UFP) by vegetation is now receiving significant attention given their role in cloud physics, human health and respiratory related diseases. Vegetation is known to be a sink for UFP, prompting interest in their collection efficiency. A number of models have tackled the UFP collection efficiency of an isolated leaf or a flat surface; however, up-scaling these theories to the ecosystem level has resisted complete theoretical treatment. To progress on a narrower scope of this problem, simultaneous experimental and theoretical investigations are carried out at the “intermediate” branch scale. Such a scale retains the large number of leaves and their interaction with the flow without the heterogeneities and added geometric complexities encountered within ecosystems. The experiments focused on the collection efficiencies of UFP in the size range 12.6-102 nm for pine and juniper branches in a wind tunnel facility. Scanning mobility particle sizers were used to measure the concentration of each diameter class of UFP upstream and downstream of the vegetation branches thereby allowing the determination of the UFP vegetation collection efficiencies. The UFP vegetation collection efficiency was measured at different wind speeds (0.3-1.5 m s-1), packing density (i.e. volume fraction of leaf or needle fibers; 0.017 and 0.040 for pine and 0.037, 0.055 for juniper), and branch orientations. These measurements were then used to investigate the performance of a proposed analytical model that predicts the branch-scale collection efficiency using conventional canopy properties such as the drag coefficient and leaf area density. Despite the numerous simplifications employed, the proposed analytical model agreed with the wind tunnel measurements mostly to within 20%. This analytical tractability can benefit future air quality and climate models incorporating UFP.
Sun, Congcong; Joseph Duran, Bernat; Maruejouls, Thibaud; Cembrano Gennari, Gabriela; Muñoz, eduard; Messeguer Amela, Jordi; Montserrat, Albert; Sampe, Sara; Puig Cayuela, Vicenç; Litrico, Xavier
2017-01-01
Integrated control of urban drainage systems considering urban drainage networks (UDN), wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) and the receiving environment seeks to minimize the impact of combined sewer overflow (CSO) to the receiving environment during wet weather. This paper will show first results of the integrated control of UDN and WWTP, obtained by LIFE-EFFIDRAIN, which is a collaborative project between academia and industry in Barcelona (Spain) and Bordeaux (France). Model predictive con...
Applied Distributed Model Predictive Control for Energy Efficient Buildings and Ramp Metering
Koehler, Sarah Muraoka
Industrial large-scale control problems present an interesting algorithmic design challenge. A number of controllers must cooperate in real-time on a network of embedded hardware with limited computing power in order to maximize system efficiency while respecting constraints and despite communication delays. Model predictive control (MPC) can automatically synthesize a centralized controller which optimizes an objective function subject to a system model, constraints, and predictions of disturbance. Unfortunately, the computations required by model predictive controllers for large-scale systems often limit its industrial implementation only to medium-scale slow processes. Distributed model predictive control (DMPC) enters the picture as a way to decentralize a large-scale model predictive control problem. The main idea of DMPC is to split the computations required by the MPC problem amongst distributed processors that can compute in parallel and communicate iteratively to find a solution. Some popularly proposed solutions are distributed optimization algorithms such as dual decomposition and the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM). However, these algorithms ignore two practical challenges: substantial communication delays present in control systems and also problem non-convexity. This thesis presents two novel and practically effective DMPC algorithms. The first DMPC algorithm is based on a primal-dual active-set method which achieves fast convergence, making it suitable for large-scale control applications which have a large communication delay across its communication network. In particular, this algorithm is suited for MPC problems with a quadratic cost, linear dynamics, forecasted demand, and box constraints. We measure the performance of this algorithm and show that it significantly outperforms both dual decomposition and ADMM in the presence of communication delay. The second DMPC algorithm is based on an inexact interior point method which is
Schoolmaster, Donald; Stagg, Camille L.
2018-01-01
A trade-off between competitive ability and stress tolerance has been hypothesized and empirically supported to explain the zonation of species across stress gradients for a number of systems. Since stress often reduces plant productivity, one might expect a pattern of decreasing productivity across the zones of the stress gradient. However, this pattern is often not observed in coastal wetlands that show patterns of zonation along a salinity gradient. To address the potentially complex relationship between stress, zonation, and productivity in coastal wetlands, we developed a model of plant biomass as a function of resource competition and salinity stress. Analysis of the model confirms the conventional wisdom that a trade-off between competitive ability and stress tolerance is a necessary condition for zonation. It also suggests that a negative relationship between salinity and production can be overcome if (1) the supply of the limiting resource increases with greater salinity stress or (2) nutrient use efficiency increases with increasing salinity. We fit the equilibrium solution of the dynamic model to data from Louisiana coastal wetlands to test its ability to explain patterns of production across the landscape gradient and derive predictions that could be tested with independent data. We found support for a number of the model predictions, including patterns of decreasing competitive ability and increasing nutrient use efficiency across a gradient from freshwater to saline wetlands. In addition to providing a quantitative framework to support the mechanistic hypotheses of zonation, these results suggest that this simple model is a useful platform to further build upon, simulate and test mechanistic hypotheses of more complex patterns and phenomena in coastal wetlands.
Incremental validity of positive orientation: predictive efficiency beyond the five-factor model
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Łukasz Roland Miciuk
2016-05-01
Full Text Available Background The relation of positive orientation (a basic predisposition to think positively of oneself, one’s life and one’s future and personality traits is still disputable. The purpose of the described research was to verify the hypothesis that positive orientation has predictive efficiency beyond the five-factor model. Participants and procedure One hundred and thirty participants (at the mean age M = 24.84 completed the following questionnaires: the Self-Esteem Scale (SES, the Satisfaction with Life Scale (SWLS, the Life Orientation Test-Revised (LOT-R, the Positivity Scale (P-SCALE, the NEO Five Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI, the Self-Concept Clarity Scale (SCC, the Generalized Self-Efficacy Scale (GSES and the Life Engagement Test (LET. Results The introduction of positive orientation as an additional predictor in the second step of regression analyses led to better prediction of the following variables: purpose in life, self-concept clarity and generalized self-efficacy. This effect was the strongest for predicting purpose in life (i.e. 14% increment of the explained variance. Conclusions The results confirmed our hypothesis that positive orientation can be characterized by incremental validity – its inclusion in the regression model (in addition to the five main factors of personality increases the amount of explained variance. These findings may provide further evidence for the legitimacy of measuring positive orientation and personality traits separately.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pantic, Lana S.; Pavlović, Tomislav M.; Milosavljević, Dragana D.; Radonjic, Ivana S.; Radovic, Miodrag K.; Sazhko, Galina
2016-01-01
Five different models for calculating solar module temperature, output power and efficiency for sunny days with different solar radiation intensities and ambient temperatures are assessed in this paper. Thereafter, modeled values are compared to the experimentally obtained values for the horizontal solar module in Nis, Serbia. The criterion for determining the best model was based on the statistical analysis and the agreement between the calculated and the experimental values. The calculated values of solar module temperature are in good agreement with the experimentally obtained ones, with some variations over and under the measured values. The best agreement between calculated and experimentally obtained values was for summer months with high solar radiation intensity. The nonlinear model for calculating the output power is much better than the linear model and at the same time predicts better the total electrical energy generated by the solar module during the day. The nonlinear model for calculating the solar module efficiency predicts the efficiency higher than the STC (Standard Test Conditions) value of solar module efficiency for all conditions, while the linear model predicts the solar module efficiency very well. This paper provides a simple and efficient guideline to estimate relevant parameters of a monocrystalline silicon solar module under the moderate-continental climate conditions. - Highlights: • Linear model for solar module temperature gives accurate predictions for August. • The nonlinear model better predicts the solar module power than the linear model. • For calculating solar module power for Nis we propose the nonlinear model. • For calculating solar model efficiency for Nis we propose adoption of linear model. • The adopted models can be used for calculations throughout the year.
An efficient numerical target strength prediction model: Validation against analysis solutions
Fillinger, L.; Nijhof, M.J.J.; Jong, C.A.F. de
2014-01-01
A decade ago, TNO developed RASP (Rapid Acoustic Signature Prediction), a numerical model for the prediction of the target strength of immersed underwater objects. The model is based on Kirchhoff diffraction theory. It is currently being improved to model refraction, angle dependent reflection and
Gosses, M. J.; Wöhling, Th.; Moore, C. R.; Dann, R.; Scott, D. M.; Close, M.
2012-04-01
Groundwater resources worldwide are increasingly under pressure. Demands from different local stakeholders add to the challenge of managing this resource. In response, groundwater models have become popular to make predictions about the impact of different management strategies and to estimate possible impacts of changes in climatic conditions. These models can assist to find optimal management strategies that comply with the various stakeholder needs. Observations of the states of the groundwater system are essential for the calibration and evaluation of groundwater flow models, particularly when they are used to guide the decision making process. On the other hand, installation and maintenance of observation networks are costly. Therefore it is important to design monitoring networks carefully and cost-efficiently. In this study, we analyse the Central Plains groundwater aquifer (~ 4000 km2) between the Rakaia and Waimakariri rivers on the Eastern side of the Southern Alps in New Zealand. The large sedimentary groundwater aquifer is fed by the two alpine rivers and by recharge from the land surface. The area is mainly under agricultural land use and large areas of the land are irrigated. The other major water use is the drinking water supply for the city of Christchurch. The local authority in the region, Environment Canterbury, maintains an extensive groundwater quantity and quality monitoring programme to monitor the effects of land use and discharges on groundwater quality, and the suitability of the groundwater for various uses, especially drinking-water supply. Current and projected irrigation water demand has raised concerns about possible impacts on groundwater-dependent lowland streams. We use predictive uncertainty analysis and the Central Plains steady-state groundwater flow model to evaluate the worth of pressure head observations in the existing groundwater well monitoring network. The data worth of particular observations is dependent on the problem
ARCH Models Efficiency Evaluation in Prediction and Poultry Price Process Formation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Behzad Fakari Sardehae
2016-09-01
. This study shows that the heterogeneous variance exists in error term and indicated by LM-test. Results and Discussion: Results showed that stationary test of the poultry price has a unit root and is stationary with one lag difference, and thus the price of poultry was used in the study by one lag difference. Main results showed that ARCH is the best model for fluctuation prediction. Moreover, news has asymmetric effect on poultry price fluctuation and good news has a stronger effect on poultry price fluctuation than bad news and leverage effect doesnot existin poultry price. Moreover current fluctuation does not transmit to future. One of the main assumptions of time series models is constant variance in estimated coefficients. If this assumption has not been, the estimated coefficients for the correlation between the serial data would be biased and results in wrong interpretation. The results showed that ARCH effects existed in error terms of poultry price and so the ARCH family with student t distribution should be used. Normality test of error term and exam of heterogeneous variance needed and lack of attention to its cause false conclusion. Result showed that ARCH models have good predictive power and ARMA models are less efficient than ARCH models. It shows that non-linear predictions are better than linear prediction. According to the results that student distribution should be used as target distribution in estimated patterns. Conclusion: Huge need for poultry, require the creation of infrastructure to response to demands. Results showed that change in poultry price volatility over time, may intensifies at anytime. The asymmetric effect of good and bad news in poultry price leading to consumer's reaction. The good news had significant effects on the poultry market and created positive change in the poultry price, but the bad news did not result insignificant effects. In fact, because the poultry product in the household portfolio is essential, it should not
Tian, Xin; Negenborn, Rudy R.; van Overloop, Peter-Jules; María Maestre, José; Sadowska, Anna; van de Giesen, Nick
2017-11-01
Model Predictive Control (MPC) is one of the most advanced real-time control techniques that has been widely applied to Water Resources Management (WRM). MPC can manage the water system in a holistic manner and has a flexible structure to incorporate specific elements, such as setpoints and constraints. Therefore, MPC has shown its versatile performance in many branches of WRM. Nonetheless, with the in-depth understanding of stochastic hydrology in recent studies, MPC also faces the challenge of how to cope with hydrological uncertainty in its decision-making process. A possible way to embed the uncertainty is to generate an Ensemble Forecast (EF) of hydrological variables, rather than a deterministic one. The combination of MPC and EF results in a more comprehensive approach: Multi-scenario MPC (MS-MPC). In this study, we will first assess the model performance of MS-MPC, considering an ensemble streamflow forecast. Noticeably, the computational inefficiency may be a critical obstacle that hinders applicability of MS-MPC. In fact, with more scenarios taken into account, the computational burden of solving an optimization problem in MS-MPC accordingly increases. To deal with this challenge, we propose the Adaptive Control Resolution (ACR) approach as a computationally efficient scheme to practically reduce the number of control variables in MS-MPC. In brief, the ACR approach uses a mixed-resolution control time step from the near future to the distant future. The ACR-MPC approach is tested on a real-world case study: an integrated flood control and navigation problem in the North Sea Canal of the Netherlands. Such an approach reduces the computation time by 18% and up in our case study. At the same time, the model performance of ACR-MPC remains close to that of conventional MPC.
An Efficient Modelling Approach for Prediction of Porosity Severity in Composite Structures
Bedayat, Houman; Forghani, Alireza; Hickmott, Curtis; Roy, Martin; Palmieri, Frank; Grimsley, Brian; Coxon, Brian; Fernlund, Goran
2017-01-01
Porosity, as a manufacturing process-induced defect, highly affects the mechanical properties of cured composites. Multiple phenomena affect the formation of porosity during the cure process. Porosity sources include entrapped air, volatiles and off-gassing as well as bag and tool leaks. Porosity sinks are the mechanisms that contribute to reducing porosity, including gas transport, void shrinkage and collapse as well as resin flow into void space. Despite the significant progress in porosity research, the fundamentals of porosity in composites are not yet fully understood. The highly coupled multi-physics and multi-scale nature of porosity make it a complicated problem to predict. Experimental evidence shows that resin pressure history throughout the cure cycle plays an important role in the porosity of the cured part. Maintaining high resin pressure results in void shrinkage and collapse keeps volatiles in solution thus preventing off-gassing and bubble formation. This study summarizes the latest development of an efficient FE modeling framework to simulate the gas and resin transport mechanisms that are among the major phenomena contributing to porosity.
A Robust Model Predictive Control for efficient thermal management of internal combustion engines
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pizzonia, Francesco; Castiglione, Teresa; Bova, Sergio
2016-01-01
Highlights: • A Robust Model Predictive Control for ICE thermal management was developed. • The proposed control is effective in decreasing the warm-up time. • The control system reduces coolant flow rate under fully warmed conditions. • The control strategy operates the cooling system around onset of nucleate boiling. • Little on-line computational effort is required. - Abstract: Optimal thermal management of modern internal combustion engines (ICE) is one of the key factors for reducing fuel consumption and CO 2 emissions. These are measured by using standardized driving cycles, like the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC), during which the engine does not reach thermal steady state; engine efficiency and emissions are therefore penalized. Several techniques for improving ICE thermal efficiency were proposed, which range from the use of empirical look-up tables to pulsed pump operation. A systematic approach to the problem is however still missing and this paper aims to bridge this gap. The paper proposes a Robust Model Predictive Control of the coolant flow rate, which makes use of a zero-dimensional model of the cooling system of an ICE. The control methodology incorporates explicitly the model uncertainties and achieves the synthesis of a state-feedback control law that minimizes the “worst case” objective function while taking into account the system constraints, as proposed by Kothare et al. (1996). The proposed control strategy is to adjust the coolant flow rate by means of an electric pump, in order to bring the cooling system to operate around the onset of nucleate boiling: across it during warm-up and above it (nucleate or saturated boiling) under fully warmed conditions. The computationally heavy optimization is carried out off-line, while during the operation of the engine the control parameters are simply picked-up on-line from look-up tables. Owing to the little computational effort required, the resulting control strategy is suitable for
Spatial extrapolation of light use efficiency model parameters to predict gross primary production
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Karsten Schulz
2011-12-01
Full Text Available To capture the spatial and temporal variability of the gross primary production as a key component of the global carbon cycle, the light use efficiency modeling approach in combination with remote sensing data has shown to be well suited. Typically, the model parameters, such as the maximum light use efficiency, are either set to a universal constant or to land class dependent values stored in look-up tables. In this study, we employ the machine learning technique support vector regression to explicitly relate the model parameters of a light use efficiency model calibrated at several FLUXNET sites to site-specific characteristics obtained by meteorological measurements, ecological estimations and remote sensing data. A feature selection algorithm extracts the relevant site characteristics in a cross-validation, and leads to an individual set of characteristic attributes for each parameter. With this set of attributes, the model parameters can be estimated at sites where a parameter calibration is not possible due to the absence of eddy covariance flux measurement data. This will finally allow a spatially continuous model application. The performance of the spatial extrapolation scheme is evaluated with a cross-validation approach, which shows the methodology to be well suited to recapture the variability of gross primary production across the study sites.
An efficient model for predicting mixing lengths in serial pumping of petroleum products
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Baptista, Renan Martins [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Centro de Pesquisas. Div. de Explotacao]. E-mail: renan@cenpes.petrobras.com.br; Rachid, Felipe Bastos de Freitas [Universidade Federal Fluminense, Niteroi, RJ (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Mecanica]. E-mail: rachid@mec.uff.br; Araujo, Jose Henrique Carneiro de [Universidade Federal Fluminense, Niteroi, RJ (Brazil). Dept. de Ciencia da Computacao]. E-mail: jhca@dcc.ic.uff.br
2000-07-01
This paper presents a new model for estimating mixing volumes which arises in batching transfers in multi product pipelines. The novel features of the model are the incorporation of the flow rate variation with time and the use of a more precise effective dispersion coefficient, which is considered to depend on the concentration. The governing equation of the model forms a non linear initial value problem that is solved by using a predictor corrector finite difference method. A comparison among the theoretical predictions of the proposed model, a field test and other classical procedures show that it exhibits the best estimate over the whole range of admissible concentrations investigated. (author)
An Efficient Implementation of Partial Condensing for Nonlinear Model Predictive Control
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Frison, Gianluca; Kouzoupis, Dimitris; Jørgensen, John Bagterp
2016-01-01
Partial (or block) condensing is a recently proposed technique to reformulate a Model Predictive Control (MPC) problem into a form more suitable for structure-exploiting Quadratic Programming (QP) solvers. It trades off horizon length for input vector size, and this degree of freedom can...
A Riccati-Based Interior Point Method for Efficient Model Predictive Control of SISO Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hagdrup, Morten; Johansson, Rolf; Bagterp Jørgensen, John
2017-01-01
This paper presents an algorithm for Model Predictive Control of SISO systems. Based on a quadratic objective in addition to (hard) input constraints it features soft upper as well as lower constraints on the output and an input rate-of-change penalty term. It keeps the deterministic and stochast...
Sreekanth, J.; Moore, Catherine
2018-04-01
The application of global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis techniques to groundwater models of deep sedimentary basins are typically challenged by large computational burdens combined with associated numerical stability issues. The highly parameterized approaches required for exploring the predictive uncertainty associated with the heterogeneous hydraulic characteristics of multiple aquifers and aquitards in these sedimentary basins exacerbate these issues. A novel Patch Modelling Methodology is proposed for improving the computational feasibility of stochastic modelling analysis of large-scale and complex groundwater models. The method incorporates a nested groundwater modelling framework that enables efficient simulation of groundwater flow and transport across multiple spatial and temporal scales. The method also allows different processes to be simulated within different model scales. Existing nested model methodologies are extended by employing 'joining predictions' for extrapolating prediction-salient information from one model scale to the next. This establishes a feedback mechanism supporting the transfer of information from child models to parent models as well as parent models to child models in a computationally efficient manner. This feedback mechanism is simple and flexible and ensures that while the salient small scale features influencing larger scale prediction are transferred back to the larger scale, this does not require the live coupling of models. This method allows the modelling of multiple groundwater flow and transport processes using separate groundwater models that are built for the appropriate spatial and temporal scales, within a stochastic framework, while also removing the computational burden associated with live model coupling. The utility of the method is demonstrated by application to an actual large scale aquifer injection scheme in Australia.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
D. K. Papanastasiou
2010-01-01
Full Text Available Aerosol levels at Mediterranean Basin are significantly affected by desert dust that is eroded in North Africa and is transported northwards. This study aims to assess the performance of the Dust REgional Atmospheric Model (BSC-DREAM8b in the prediction of dust outbreaks near the surface in Eastern Mediterranean. For this purpose, model PM10 predictions covering a 7-year period and PM10 observations at five surface monitoring sites in Greece are used. A quantitative criterion is set to select the significant dust outbreaks defined as those when the predicted PM10 surface concentration exceeds 12 μg/m3. The analysis reveals that significant dust transport is usually observed for 1–3 consecutive days. Dust outbreak seasons are spring and summer, while some events are also forecasted in autumn. The seasonal variability of dust transport events is different at Finokalia, where the majority of events are observed in spring and winter. Dust contributes by 19–25% to the near surface observed PM10 levels, which can be increased to more than 50 μg/m3 during dust outbreaks, inducing violations of the air quality standards. Dust regional modeling can be regarded as a useful tool for air quality managers when assessing compliance with air quality limit values.
Ting, Sie Chun; Ismail, A R; Malek, M A
2013-11-15
This study aims at developing a novel effluent removal management tool for septic sludge treatment plants (SSTP) using a clonal selection algorithm (CSA). The proposed CSA articulates the idea of utilizing an artificial immune system (AIS) to identify the behaviour of the SSTP, that is, using a sequence batch reactor (SBR) technology for treatment processes. The novelty of this study is the development of a predictive SSTP model for effluent discharge adopting the human immune system. Septic sludge from the individual septic tanks and package plants will be desuldged and treated in SSTP before discharging the wastewater into a waterway. The Borneo Island of Sarawak is selected as the case study. Currently, there are only two SSTPs in Sarawak, namely the Matang SSTP and the Sibu SSTP, and they are both using SBR technology. Monthly effluent discharges from 2007 to 2011 in the Matang SSTP are used in this study. Cross-validation is performed using data from the Sibu SSTP from April 2011 to July 2012. Both chemical oxygen demand (COD) and total suspended solids (TSS) in the effluent were analysed in this study. The model was validated and tested before forecasting the future effluent performance. The CSA-based SSTP model was simulated using MATLAB 7.10. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and correction coefficient (R) were used as performance indexes. In this study, it was found that the proposed prediction model was successful up to 84 months for the COD and 109 months for the TSS. In conclusion, the proposed CSA-based SSTP prediction model is indeed beneficial as an engineering tool to forecast the long-run performance of the SSTP and in turn, prevents infringement of future environmental balance in other towns in Sarawak. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Cultural Resource Predictive Modeling
2017-10-01
refining formal, inductive predictive models is the quality of the archaeological and environmental data. To build models efficiently, relevant...geomorphology, and historic information . Lessons Learned: The original model was focused on the identification of prehistoric resources. This...system but uses predictive modeling informally . For example, there is no probability for buried archaeological deposits on the Burton Mesa, but there is
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Stefano Curcio
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The present paper was aimed at showing that advanced modeling techniques, based either on artificial neural networks or on hybrid systems, might efficiently predict the behavior of two biotechnological processes designed for the obtainment of second-generation biofuels from waste biomasses. In particular, the enzymatic transesterification of waste-oil glycerides, the key step for the obtainment of biodiesel, and the anaerobic digestion of agroindustry wastes to produce biogas were modeled. It was proved that the proposed modeling approaches provided very accurate predictions of systems behavior. Both neural network and hybrid modeling definitely represented a valid alternative to traditional theoretical models, especially when comprehensive knowledge of the metabolic pathways, of the true kinetic mechanisms, and of the transport phenomena involved in biotechnological processes was difficult to be achieved.
New efficient optimizing techniques for Kalman filters and numerical weather prediction models
Famelis, Ioannis; Galanis, George; Liakatas, Aristotelis
2016-06-01
The need for accurate local environmental predictions and simulations beyond the classical meteorological forecasts are increasing the last years due to the great number of applications that are directly or not affected: renewable energy resource assessment, natural hazards early warning systems, global warming and questions on the climate change can be listed among them. Within this framework the utilization of numerical weather and wave prediction systems in conjunction with advanced statistical techniques that support the elimination of the model bias and the reduction of the error variability may successfully address the above issues. In the present work, new optimization methods are studied and tested in selected areas of Greece where the use of renewable energy sources is of critical. The added value of the proposed work is due to the solid mathematical background adopted making use of Information Geometry and Statistical techniques, new versions of Kalman filters and state of the art numerical analysis tools.
Efficient Prediction of Progesterone Receptor Interactome Using a Support Vector Machine Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ji-Long Liu
2015-03-01
Full Text Available Protein-protein interaction (PPI is essential for almost all cellular processes and identification of PPI is a crucial task for biomedical researchers. So far, most computational studies of PPI are intended for pair-wise prediction. Theoretically, predicting protein partners for a single protein is likely a simpler problem. Given enough data for a particular protein, the results can be more accurate than general PPI predictors. In the present study, we assessed the potential of using the support vector machine (SVM model with selected features centered on a particular protein for PPI prediction. As a proof-of-concept study, we applied this method to identify the interactome of progesterone receptor (PR, a protein which is essential for coordinating female reproduction in mammals by mediating the actions of ovarian progesterone. We achieved an accuracy of 91.9%, sensitivity of 92.8% and specificity of 91.2%. Our method is generally applicable to any other proteins and therefore may be of help in guiding biomedical experiments.
Li, Hongzhi; Zhong, Ziyan; Li, Lin; Gao, Rui; Cui, Jingxia; Gao, Ting; Hu, Li Hong; Lu, Yinghua; Su, Zhong-Min; Li, Hui
2015-05-30
A cascaded model is proposed to establish the quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) between the overall power conversion efficiency (PCE) and quantum chemical molecular descriptors of all-organic dye sensitizers. The cascaded model is a two-level network in which the outputs of the first level (JSC, VOC, and FF) are the inputs of the second level, and the ultimate end-point is the overall PCE of dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs). The model combines quantum chemical methods and machine learning methods, further including quantum chemical calculations, data division, feature selection, regression, and validation steps. To improve the efficiency of the model and reduce the redundancy and noise of the molecular descriptors, six feature selection methods (multiple linear regression, genetic algorithms, mean impact value, forward selection, backward elimination, and +n-m algorithm) are used with the support vector machine. The best established cascaded model predicts the PCE values of DSSCs with a MAE of 0.57 (%), which is about 10% of the mean value PCE (5.62%). The validation parameters according to the OECD principles are R(2) (0.75), Q(2) (0.77), and Qcv2 (0.76), which demonstrate the great goodness-of-fit, predictivity, and robustness of the model. Additionally, the applicability domain of the cascaded QSAR model is defined for further application. This study demonstrates that the established cascaded model is able to effectively predict the PCE for organic dye sensitizers with very low cost and relatively high accuracy, providing a useful tool for the design of dye sensitizers with high PCE. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Jaffery, Mujtaba H.; Shead, Leo; Forshaw, Jason L.; Lappas, Vaios J.
2013-12-01
A new linear model predictive control (MPC) algorithm in a state-space framework is presented based on the fusion of two past MPC control laws: steady-state optimal MPC (SSOMPC) and Laguerre optimal MPC (LOMPC). The new controller, SSLOMPC, is demonstrated to have improved feasibility, tracking performance and computation time than its predecessors. This is verified in both simulation and practical experimentation on a quadrotor unmanned air vehicle in an indoor motion-capture testbed. The performance of the control law is experimentally compared with proportional-integral-derivative (PID) and linear quadratic regulator (LQR) controllers in an unconstrained square manoeuvre. The use of soft control output and hard control input constraints is also examined in single and dual constrained manoeuvres.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ijasini John Tekwa
2016-03-01
Full Text Available A field study was carried out to assess soil loss from ephemeral gully (EG erosion at 6 different locations (Digil, Vimtim, Muvur, Gella, Lamorde and Madanya around the Mubi area between April, 2008 and October, 2009. Each location consisted of 3 watershed sites from where data was collected. EG shape, land use, and conservation practices were noted, while EG length, width, and depth were measured. Physico-chemical properties of the soils were studied in the field and laboratory. Soil loss was both measured and predicted using modeled empirical equations. Results showed that the soils are heterogeneous and lying on flat to hilly topographies with few grasses, shrubs and tree vegetations. The soils comprised of sand fractions that predominated the texture, with considerable silt and clay contents. The empirical soil loss was generally related with the measured soil loss and the predictions were widely reliable at all sites, regardless of season. The measured and empirical aggregate soil loss were more related in terms of volume of soil loss (VSL (r2=0.93 and mass of soil loss (MSL (r2=0.92, than area of soil loss (ASL (r2=0.27. The empirical estimates of VSL and MSL were consistently higher at Muvur (less vegetation and lower at Madanya and Gella (denser vegetations in both years. The maximum efficiency (Mse of the empirical equation in predicting ASL was between 1.41 (Digil and 89.07 (Lamorde, while the Mse was higher at Madanya (2.56 and lowest at Vimtim (15.66 in terms of VSL prediction efficiencies. The Mse also ranged from 1.84 (Madanya to 15.74 (Vimtim in respect of MSL predictions. These results led to the recommendation that soil conservationists, farmers, private and/or government agencies should implement the empirical model in erosion studies around Mubi area.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li, Liang; Zhang, Yuanbo; Yang, Chao; Yan, Bingjie; Marina Martinez, C.
2016-01-01
Highlights: • A 7-degree-of-freedom model of hybrid electric vehicle with regenerative braking system is built. • A modified nonlinear model predictive control strategy is developed. • The particle swarm optimization algorithm is employed to solve the optimization problem. • The proposed control strategy is verified by simulation and hardware-in-loop tests. • Test results verify the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy. - Abstract: As one of the main working modes, the energy recovered with regenerative braking system provides an effective approach so as to greatly improve fuel economy of hybrid electric bus. However, it is still a challenging issue to ensure braking stability while maximizing braking energy recovery. To solve this problem, an efficient energy recovery control strategy is proposed based on the modified nonlinear model predictive control method. Firstly, combined with the characteristics of the compound braking process of single-shaft parallel hybrid electric bus, a 7 degrees of freedom model of the vehicle longitudinal dynamics is built. Secondly, considering nonlinear characteristic of the vehicle model and the efficiency of regenerative braking system, the particle swarm optimization algorithm within the modified nonlinear model predictive control is adopted to optimize the torque distribution between regenerative braking system and pneumatic braking system at the wheels. So as to reduce the computational time of modified nonlinear model predictive control, a nearest point method is employed during the braking process. Finally, the simulation and hardware-in-loop test are carried out on road conditions with different tire–road adhesion coefficients, and the proposed control strategy is verified by comparing it with the conventional control method employed in the baseline vehicle controller. The simulation and hardware-in-loop test results show that the proposed strategy can ensure vehicle safety during emergency braking
Yuan, W.; Liu, S.; Zhou, G.; Tieszen, L.L.; Baldocchi, D.; Bernhofer, C.; Gholz, H.; Goldstein, Allen H.; Goulden, M.L.; Hollinger, D.Y.; Hu, Y.; Law, B.E.; Stoy, Paul C.; Vesala, T.; Wofsy, S.C.
2007-01-01
The quantitative simulation of gross primary production (GPP) at various spatial and temporal scales has been a major challenge in quantifying the global carbon cycle. We developed a light use efficiency (LUE) daily GPP model from eddy covariance (EC) measurements. The model, called EC-LUE, is driven by only four variables: normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), air temperature, and the Bowen ratio of sensible to latent heat flux (used to calculate moisture stress). The EC-LUE model relies on two assumptions: First, that the fraction of absorbed PAR (fPAR) is a linear function of NDVI; Second, that the realized light use efficiency, calculated from a biome-independent invariant potential LUE, is controlled by air temperature or soil moisture, whichever is most limiting. The EC-LUE model was calibrated and validated using 24,349 daily GPP estimates derived from 28 eddy covariance flux towers from the AmeriFlux and EuroFlux networks, covering a variety of forests, grasslands and savannas. The model explained 85% and 77% of the observed variations of daily GPP for all the calibration and validation sites, respectively. A comparison with GPP calculated from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) indicated that the EC-LUE model predicted GPP that better matched tower data across these sites. The realized LUE was predominantly controlled by moisture conditions throughout the growing season, and controlled by temperature only at the beginning and end of the growing season. The EC-LUE model is an alternative approach that makes it possible to map daily GPP over large areas because (1) the potential LUE is invariant across various land cover types and (2) all driving forces of the model can be derived from remote sensing data or existing climate observation networks.
Efficient Implementation of Solvers for Linear Model Predictive Control on Embedded Devices
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Frison, Gianluca; Kwame Minde Kufoalor, D.; Imsland, Lars
2014-01-01
This paper proposes a novel approach for the efficient implementation of solvers for linear MPC on embedded devices. The main focus is to explain in detail the approach used to optimize the linear algebra for selected low-power embedded devices, and to show how the high-performance implementation...... of a single routine (the matrix-matrix multiplication gemm) can speed-up an interior-point method for linear MPC. The results show that the high-performance MPC obtained using the proposed approach is several times faster than the current state-of-the-art IP method for linear MPC on embedded devices....
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Liu, Fulai; Andersen, Mathias N.; Jensen, Christian Richardt
2009-01-01
The capability of the ‘Ball-Berry' model (BB-model) in predicting stomatal conductance (gs) and water use efficiency (WUE) of potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) leaves under different irrigation regimes was tested using data from two independent pot experiments in 2004 and 2007. Data obtained from 2004...... of soil water deficits on gs, a simple equation modifying the slope (m) based on the mean soil water potential (Ψs) in the soil columns was incorporated into the original BB-model. Compared with the original BB-model, the modified BB-model showed better predictability for both gs and WUE of potato leaves....... The simulation results showed that the modified BB-model better simulated gs for the NI and DI treatments than the original BB-model, whilst the two models performed equally well for predicting gs of the FI and PRD treatments. Although both models had poor predictability for WUE (0.47
Bakker, M.; Verberk, J.Q.J.C.; Palmen, L.J.; Sperber, V.; Bakker, G.
2011-01-01
Half of all water supply systems in the Netherlands are controlled by model predictive flow control; the other half are controlled by conventional level based control. The differences between conventional level based control and model predictive control were investigated in experiments at five full
Inverse and Predictive Modeling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Syracuse, Ellen Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2017-09-27
The LANL Seismo-Acoustic team has a strong capability in developing data-driven models that accurately predict a variety of observations. These models range from the simple – one-dimensional models that are constrained by a single dataset and can be used for quick and efficient predictions – to the complex – multidimensional models that are constrained by several types of data and result in more accurate predictions. Team members typically build models of geophysical characteristics of Earth and source distributions at scales of 1 to 1000s of km, the techniques used are applicable for other types of physical characteristics at an even greater range of scales. The following cases provide a snapshot of some of the modeling work done by the Seismo- Acoustic team at LANL.
Efficient predictive algorithms for image compression
Rosário Lucas, Luís Filipe; Maciel de Faria, Sérgio Manuel; Morais Rodrigues, Nuno Miguel; Liberal Pagliari, Carla
2017-01-01
This book discusses efficient prediction techniques for the current state-of-the-art High Efficiency Video Coding (HEVC) standard, focusing on the compression of a wide range of video signals, such as 3D video, Light Fields and natural images. The authors begin with a review of the state-of-the-art predictive coding methods and compression technologies for both 2D and 3D multimedia contents, which provides a good starting point for new researchers in the field of image and video compression. New prediction techniques that go beyond the standardized compression technologies are then presented and discussed. In the context of 3D video, the authors describe a new predictive algorithm for the compression of depth maps, which combines intra-directional prediction, with flexible block partitioning and linear residue fitting. New approaches are described for the compression of Light Field and still images, which enforce sparsity constraints on linear models. The Locally Linear Embedding-based prediction method is in...
Drach, Andrew; Khalighi, Amir H; Sacks, Michael S
2018-02-01
Multiple studies have demonstrated that the pathological geometries unique to each patient can affect the durability of mitral valve (MV) repairs. While computational modeling of the MV is a promising approach to improve the surgical outcomes, the complex MV geometry precludes use of simplified models. Moreover, the lack of complete in vivo geometric information presents significant challenges in the development of patient-specific computational models. There is thus a need to determine the level of detail necessary for predictive MV models. To address this issue, we have developed a novel pipeline for building attribute-rich computational models of MV with varying fidelity directly from the in vitro imaging data. The approach combines high-resolution geometric information from loaded and unloaded states to achieve a high level of anatomic detail, followed by mapping and parametric embedding of tissue attributes to build a high-resolution, attribute-rich computational models. Subsequent lower resolution models were then developed and evaluated by comparing the displacements and surface strains to those extracted from the imaging data. We then identified the critical levels of fidelity for building predictive MV models in the dilated and repaired states. We demonstrated that a model with a feature size of about 5 mm and mesh size of about 1 mm was sufficient to predict the overall MV shape, stress, and strain distributions with high accuracy. However, we also noted that more detailed models were found to be needed to simulate microstructural events. We conclude that the developed pipeline enables sufficiently complex models for biomechanical simulations of MV in normal, dilated, repaired states. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
An efficiency correction model
Francke, M.K.; de Vos, A.F.
2009-01-01
We analyze a dataset containing costs and outputs of 67 American local exchange carriers in a period of 11 years. This data has been used to judge the efficiency of BT and KPN using static stochastic frontier models. We show that these models are dynamically misspecified. As an alternative we
Neto, Elias Chaibub; Jang, In Sock; Friend, Stephen H; Margolin, Adam A
2014-01-01
Computational efficiency is important for learning algorithms operating in the "large p, small n" setting. In computational biology, the analysis of data sets containing tens of thousands of features ("large p"), but only a few hundred samples ("small n"), is nowadays routine, and regularized regression approaches such as ridge-regression, lasso, and elastic-net are popular choices. In this paper we propose a novel and highly efficient Bayesian inference method for fitting ridge-regression. Our method is fully analytical, and bypasses the need for expensive tuning parameter optimization, via cross-validation, by employing Bayesian model averaging over the grid of tuning parameters. Additional computational efficiency is achieved by adopting the singular value decomposition reparametrization of the ridge-regression model, replacing computationally expensive inversions of large p × p matrices by efficient inversions of small and diagonal n × n matrices. We show in simulation studies and in the analysis of two large cancer cell line data panels that our algorithm achieves slightly better predictive performance than cross-validated ridge-regression while requiring only a fraction of the computation time. Furthermore, in comparisons based on the cell line data sets, our algorithm systematically out-performs the lasso in both predictive performance and computation time, and shows equivalent predictive performance, but considerably smaller computation time, than the elastic-net.
Doulamis, A.; Doulamis, N.; Ioannidis, C.; Chrysouli, C.; Grammalidis, N.; Dimitropoulos, K.; Potsiou, C.; Stathopoulou, E.-K.; Ioannides, M.
2015-08-01
Outdoor large-scale cultural sites are mostly sensitive to environmental, natural and human made factors, implying an imminent need for a spatio-temporal assessment to identify regions of potential cultural interest (material degradation, structuring, conservation). On the other hand, in Cultural Heritage research quite different actors are involved (archaeologists, curators, conservators, simple users) each of diverse needs. All these statements advocate that a 5D modelling (3D geometry plus time plus levels of details) is ideally required for preservation and assessment of outdoor large scale cultural sites, which is currently implemented as a simple aggregation of 3D digital models at different time and levels of details. The main bottleneck of such an approach is its complexity, making 5D modelling impossible to be validated in real life conditions. In this paper, a cost effective and affordable framework for 5D modelling is proposed based on a spatial-temporal dependent aggregation of 3D digital models, by incorporating a predictive assessment procedure to indicate which regions (surfaces) of an object should be reconstructed at higher levels of details at next time instances and which at lower ones. In this way, dynamic change history maps are created, indicating spatial probabilities of regions needed further 3D modelling at forthcoming instances. Using these maps, predictive assessment can be made, that is, to localize surfaces within the objects where a high accuracy reconstruction process needs to be activated at the forthcoming time instances. The proposed 5D Digital Cultural Heritage Model (5D-DCHM) is implemented using open interoperable standards based on the CityGML framework, which also allows the description of additional semantic metadata information. Visualization aspects are also supported to allow easy manipulation, interaction and representation of the 5D-DCHM geometry and the respective semantic information. The open source 3DCity
Genomic Prediction of Manganese Efficiency in Winter Barley
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Florian Leplat
2016-07-01
Full Text Available Manganese efficiency is a quantitative abiotic stress trait controlled by several genes each with a small effect. Manganese deficiency leads to yield reduction in winter barley ( L.. Breeding new cultivars for this trait remains difficult because of the lack of visual symptoms and the polygenic features of the trait. Hence, Mn efficiency is a potential suitable trait for a genomic selection (GS approach. A collection of 248 winter barley varieties was screened for Mn efficiency using Chlorophyll (Chl fluorescence in six environments prone to induce Mn deficiency. Two models for genomic prediction were implemented to predict future performance and breeding value of untested varieties. Predictions were obtained using multivariate mixed models: best linear unbiased predictor (BLUP and genomic best linear unbiased predictor (G-BLUP. In the first model, predictions were based on the phenotypic evaluation, whereas both phenotypic and genomic marker data were included in the second model. Accuracy of predicting future phenotype, , and accuracy of predicting true breeding values, , were calculated and compared for both models using six cross-validation (CV schemes; these were designed to mimic plant breeding programs. Overall, the CVs showed that prediction accuracies increased when using the G-BLUP model compared with the prediction accuracies using the BLUP model. Furthermore, the accuracies [] of predicting breeding values were more accurate than accuracy of predicting future phenotypes []. The study confirms that genomic data may enhance the prediction accuracy. Moreover it indicates that GS is a suitable breeding approach for quantitative abiotic stress traits.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Valverde Ramirez, M.; Coury, J.R.; Goncalves, J.A.S.
2009-01-01
In recent years, many computational fluid dynamics (CFD) studies have appeared attempting to predict cyclone pressure drop and collection efficiency. While these studies have been able to predict pressure drop well, they have been only moderately successful in predicting collection efficiency. Part of the reason for this failure has been attributed to the relatively simple wall boundary conditions implemented in the commercially available CFD software, which are not capable of accurately describing the complex particle-wall interaction present in a cyclone. According, researches have proposed a number of different boundary conditions in order to improve the model performance. This work implemented the critical velocity boundary condition through a user defined function (UDF) in the Fluent software and compared its predictions both with experimental data and with the predictions obtained when using Fluent's built-in boundary conditions. Experimental data was obtained from eight laboratory scale cyclones with varying geometric ratios. The CFD simulations were made using the software Fluent 6.3.26. (author)
Information Systems Efficiency Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Milos Koch
2017-07-01
Full Text Available This contribution discusses the basic concept of creating a new model for the efficiency and effectiveness assessment of company information systems. The present trends in this field are taken into account, and the attributes are retained of measuring the optimal solutions for a company’s ICT (the implementation, functionality, service, innovations, safety, relationships, costs, etc.. The proposal of a new model of assessment comes from our experience with formerly implemented and employed methods, methods which we have modified in time and adapted to companies’ needs but also to the necessaries of our research that has been done through the ZEFIS portal. The most noteworthy of them is the HOS method that we have discussed in a number of forums. Its main feature is the fact that it respects the complexity of an information system in correlation with the balanced state of its individual parts.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiaomin Ying
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Bacterial sRNAs are a class of small regulatory RNAs involved in regulation of expression of a variety of genes. Most sRNAs act in trans via base-pairing with target mRNAs, leading to repression or activation of translation or mRNA degradation. To date, more than 1,000 sRNAs have been identified. However, direct targets have been identified for only approximately 50 of these sRNAs. Computational predictions can provide candidates for target validation, thereby increasing the speed of sRNA target identification. Although several methods have been developed, target prediction for bacterial sRNAs remains challenging. RESULTS: Here, we propose a novel method for sRNA target prediction, termed sTarPicker, which was based on a two-step model for hybridization between an sRNA and an mRNA target. This method first selects stable duplexes after screening all possible duplexes between the sRNA and the potential mRNA target. Next, hybridization between the sRNA and the target is extended to span the entire binding site. Finally, quantitative predictions are produced with an ensemble classifier generated using machine-learning methods. In calculations to determine the hybridization energies of seed regions and binding regions, both thermodynamic stability and site accessibility of the sRNAs and targets were considered. Comparisons with the existing methods showed that sTarPicker performed best in both performance of target prediction and accuracy of the predicted binding sites. CONCLUSIONS: sTarPicker can predict bacterial sRNA targets with higher efficiency and determine the exact locations of the interactions with a higher accuracy than competing programs. sTarPicker is available at http://ccb.bmi.ac.cn/starpicker/.
Predictive modeling of complications.
Osorio, Joseph A; Scheer, Justin K; Ames, Christopher P
2016-09-01
Predictive analytic algorithms are designed to identify patterns in the data that allow for accurate predictions without the need for a hypothesis. Therefore, predictive modeling can provide detailed and patient-specific information that can be readily applied when discussing the risks of surgery with a patient. There are few studies using predictive modeling techniques in the adult spine surgery literature. These types of studies represent the beginning of the use of predictive analytics in spine surgery outcomes. We will discuss the advancements in the field of spine surgery with respect to predictive analytics, the controversies surrounding the technique, and the future directions.
Kannan, Govind; Milani, Ali A; Panahi, Issa M S; Briggs, Richard W
2011-12-01
Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) acoustic noise exhibits an almost periodic nature (quasi-periodicity) due to the repetitive nature of currents in the gradient coils. Small changes occur in the waveform in consecutive periods due to the background noise and slow drifts in the electroacoustic transfer functions that map the gradient coil waveforms to the measured acoustic waveforms. The period depends on the number of slices per second, when echo planar imaging (EPI) sequencing is used. Linear predictability of fMRI acoustic noise has a direct effect on the performance of active noise control (ANC) systems targeted to cancel the acoustic noise. It is shown that by incorporating some samples from the previous period, very high linear prediction accuracy can be reached with a very low order predictor. This has direct implications on feedback ANC systems since their performance is governed by the predictability of the acoustic noise to be cancelled. The low complexity linear prediction of fMRI acoustic noise developed in this paper is used to derive an effective and low-cost feedback ANC system.
Archaeological predictive model set.
2015-03-01
This report is the documentation for Task 7 of the Statewide Archaeological Predictive Model Set. The goal of this project is to : develop a set of statewide predictive models to assist the planning of transportation projects. PennDOT is developing t...
Levy, R.; Mcginness, H.
1976-01-01
Investigations were performed to predict the power available from the wind at the Goldstone, California, antenna site complex. The background for power prediction was derived from a statistical evaluation of available wind speed data records at this location and at nearby locations similarly situated within the Mojave desert. In addition to a model for power prediction over relatively long periods of time, an interim simulation model that produces sample wind speeds is described. The interim model furnishes uncorrelated sample speeds at hourly intervals that reproduce the statistical wind distribution at Goldstone. A stochastic simulation model to provide speed samples representative of both the statistical speed distributions and correlations is also discussed.
Zephyr - the prediction models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg
2001-01-01
utilities as partners and users. The new models are evaluated for five wind farms in Denmark as well as one wind farm in Spain. It is shown that the predictions based on conditional parametric models are superior to the predictions obatined by state-of-the-art parametric models.......This paper briefly describes new models and methods for predicationg the wind power output from wind farms. The system is being developed in a project which has the research organization Risø and the department of Informatics and Mathematical Modelling (IMM) as the modelling team and all the Danish...
Melanoma risk prediction models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nikolić Jelena
2014-01-01
only present in melanoma patients and thus were strongly associated with melanoma. The percentage of correctly classified subjects in the LR model was 74.9%, sensitivity 71%, specificity 78.7% and AUC 0.805. For the ADT percentage of correctly classified instances was 71.9%, sensitivity 71.9%, specificity 79.4% and AUC 0.808. Conclusion. Application of different models for risk assessment and prediction of melanoma should provide efficient and standardized tool in the hands of clinicians. The presented models offer effective discrimination of individuals at high risk, transparent decision making and real-time implementation suitable for clinical practice. A continuous melanoma database growth would provide for further adjustments and enhancements in model accuracy as well as offering a possibility for successful application of more advanced data mining algorithms.
Computationally Efficient Prediction of Ionic Liquid Properties
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Chaban, V. V.; Prezhdo, O. V.
2014-01-01
Due to fundamental differences, room-temperature ionic liquids (RTIL) are significantly more viscous than conventional molecular liquids and require long simulation times. At the same time, RTILs remain in the liquid state over a much broader temperature range than the ordinary liquids. We exploit...... the ability of RTILs to stay liquid at several hundred degrees Celsius and introduce a straightforward and computationally efficient method for predicting RTIL properties at ambient temperature. RTILs do not alter phase behavior at 600-800 K. Therefore, their properties can be smoothly extrapolated down...... to ambient temperatures. We numerically prove the validity of the proposed concept for density and ionic diffusion of four different RTILs. This simple method enhances the computational efficiency of the existing simulation approaches as applied to RTILs by more than an order of magnitude....
Spill, Yannick G; Pasquali, Samuela; Derreumaux, Philippe
2011-05-10
The simulation of amyloid fibril formation is impossible if one takes into account all chemical details of the amino acids and their detailed interactions with the solvent. We investigate the folding and aggregation of two model peptides using the optimized potential for efficient structure prediction (OPEP) coarse-grained model and replica exchange molecular dynamics (REMD) simulations coupled with either the Langevin or the Berendsen thermostat. For both the monomer of blocked penta-alanine and the trimer of the 25-35 fragment of the Alzheimer's amyloid β protein, we find little variations in the equilibrium structures and heat capacity curves using the two thermostats. Despite this high similarity, we detect significant differences in the populations of the dominant conformations at low temperatures, whereas the configurational distributions remain the same in proximity of the melting temperature. Aβ25-35 trimers at 300 K have an averaged β-sheet content of 12% and are primarily characterized by fully disordered peptides or a small curved two-stranded β-sheet stabilized by a disordered peptide. In addition, OPEP molecular dynamics simulations of Aβ25-35 hexamers at 300 K with a small curved six-stranded antiparallel β-sheet do not show any extension of the β-sheet content. These data support the idea that the mechanism of Aβ25-35 amyloid formation does not result from a high fraction of extended β-sheet-rich trimers and hexamers.
SPAR Model Structural Efficiencies
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
John Schroeder; Dan Henry
2013-04-01
The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) are supporting initiatives aimed at improving the quality of probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs). Included in these initiatives are the resolution of key technical issues that are have been judged to have the most significant influence on the baseline core damage frequency of the NRC’s Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models and licensee PRA models. Previous work addressed issues associated with support system initiating event analysis and loss of off-site power/station blackout analysis. The key technical issues were: • Development of a standard methodology and implementation of support system initiating events • Treatment of loss of offsite power • Development of standard approach for emergency core cooling following containment failure Some of the related issues were not fully resolved. This project continues the effort to resolve outstanding issues. The work scope was intended to include substantial collaboration with EPRI; however, EPRI has had other higher priority initiatives to support. Therefore this project has addressed SPAR modeling issues. The issues addressed are • SPAR model transparency • Common cause failure modeling deficiencies and approaches • Ac and dc modeling deficiencies and approaches • Instrumentation and control system modeling deficiencies and approaches
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Zhou, Y.; Wu, X.; Weiming, J.; Chen, J.; Wang, S.; Wang, H.; Wenping, Y.; Black, T. A.; Jassal, R.; Ibrom, A.; Han, S.; Yan, J.; Margolis, H.; Roupsard, O.; Li, Y.; Zhao, F.; Kiely, G.; Starr, G.; Pavelka, Marian; Montagnani, L.; Wohlfahrt, G.; D'Odorico, P.; Cook, D.; Altaf Arain, M.; Bonal, D.; Beringer, J.; Blanken, P. D.; Loubet, B.; Leclerc, M. Y.; Matteucci, G.; Nagy, Z.; Olejnik, Janusz; U., K. T. P.; Varlagin, A.
2016-01-01
Roč. 36, č. 7 (2016), s. 2743-2760 ISSN 2169-8953 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : global parametrization * predicting model * FlUXNET Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.395, year: 2016
Lee, Chun-Yuan; Kunin, Calvin M; Chang, Chung; Lee, Susan Shin-Jung; Chen, Yao-Shen; Tsai, Hung-Chin
2016-10-19
Cellulitis is a common infectious disease. Although blood culture is frequently used in the diagnosis and subsequent treatment of cellulitis, it is a contentious diagnostic test. To help clinicians determine which patients should undergo blood culture for the management of cellulitis, a diagnostic scoring system referred to as the Bacteremia Score of Cellulitis was developed. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed as part of a retrospective cohort study of all adults diagnosed with cellulitis in a tertiary teaching hospital in Taiwan in 2013. Patients who underwent blood culture were used to develop a diagnostic prediction model where the main outcome measures were true bacteremia in cellulitis cases. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) was used to demonstrate the predictive power of the model, and bootstrapping was then used to validate the performance. Three hundred fifty one cases with cellulitis who underwent blood culture were enrolled. The overall prevalence of true bacteremia was 33/351 cases (9.4 %). Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed optimal diagnostic discrimination for the combination of age ≥65 years (odds ratio [OR] = 3.9; 95 % confidence interval (CI), 1.5-10.1), involvement of non-lower extremities (OR = 4.0; 95 % CI, 1.5-10.6), liver cirrhosis (OR = 6.8; 95 % CI, 1.8-25.3), and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) (OR = 15.2; 95 % CI, 4.8-48.0). These four independent factors were included in the initial formula, and the AUC for this combination of factors was 0.867 (95 % CI, 0.806-0.928). The rounded formula was 1 × (age ≥65 years) + 1.5 × (involvement of non-lower extremities) + 2 × (liver cirrhosis) + 2.5 × (SIRS). The overall prevalence of true bacteremia (9.4 %) in this study could be lowered to 1.0 % (low risk group, score ≤1.5) or raised to 14.7 % (medium risk group, score 2-3.5) and 41.2
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Zhou, Yanlian; Wu, Xiaocui; Ju, Weimin
2015-01-01
Light use efficiency (LUE) models are widely used to simulate gross primary production (GPP). However, the treatment of the plant canopy as a big leaf by these models can introduce large uncertainties in simulated GPP. Recently, a two-leaf light use efficiency (TL-LUE) model was developed...... to simulate GPP separately for sunlit and shaded leaves and has been shown to outperform the big-leaf MOD17 model at six FLUX sites in China. In this study we investigated the performance of the TL-LUE model for a wider range of biomes. For this we optimized the parameters and tested the TL-LUE model using...... data from 98 FLUXNET sites which are distributed across the globe. The results showed that the TL-LUE model performed in general better than the MOD17 model in simulating 8 day GPP. Optimized maximum light use efficiency of shaded leaves (epsilon(msh)) was 2.63 to 4.59 times that of sunlit leaves...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Zhou, Yanlian [Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing China; Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing China; Wu, Xiaocui [International Institute for Earth System Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing China; Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing China; Ju, Weimin [International Institute for Earth System Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing China; Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographic Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing China; Chen, Jing M. [International Institute for Earth System Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing China; Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing China; Wang, Shaoqiang [Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing China; Wang, Huimin [Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing China; Yuan, Wenping [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Future Earth Research Institute, Beijing Normal University, Beijing China; Andrew Black, T. [Faculty of Land and Food Systems, University of British Columbia, Vancouver British Columbia Canada; Jassal, Rachhpal [Faculty of Land and Food Systems, University of British Columbia, Vancouver British Columbia Canada; Ibrom, Andreas [Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark (DTU), Kgs. Lyngby Denmark; Han, Shijie [Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang China; Yan, Junhua [South China Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou China; Margolis, Hank [Centre for Forest Studies, Faculty of Forestry, Geography and Geomatics, Laval University, Quebec City Quebec Canada; Roupsard, Olivier [CIRAD-Persyst, UMR Ecologie Fonctionnelle and Biogéochimie des Sols et Agroécosystèmes, SupAgro-CIRAD-INRA-IRD, Montpellier France; CATIE (Tropical Agricultural Centre for Research and Higher Education), Turrialba Costa Rica; Li, Yingnian [Northwest Institute of Plateau Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xining China; Zhao, Fenghua [Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing China; Kiely, Gerard [Environmental Research Institute, Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, University College Cork, Cork Ireland; Starr, Gregory [Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa Alabama USA; Pavelka, Marian [Laboratory of Plants Ecological Physiology, Institute of Systems Biology and Ecology AS CR, Prague Czech Republic; Montagnani, Leonardo [Forest Services, Autonomous Province of Bolzano, Bolzano Italy; Faculty of Sciences and Technology, Free University of Bolzano, Bolzano Italy; Wohlfahrt, Georg [Institute for Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck Austria; European Academy of Bolzano, Bolzano Italy; D' Odorico, Petra [Grassland Sciences Group, Institute of Agricultural Sciences, ETH Zurich Switzerland; Cook, David [Atmospheric and Climate Research Program, Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne Illinois USA; Arain, M. Altaf [McMaster Centre for Climate Change and School of Geography and Earth Sciences, McMaster University, Hamilton Ontario Canada; Bonal, Damien [INRA Nancy, UMR EEF, Champenoux France; Beringer, Jason [School of Earth and Environment, The University of Western Australia, Crawley Australia; Blanken, Peter D. [Department of Geography, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Loubet, Benjamin [UMR ECOSYS, INRA, AgroParisTech, Université Paris-Saclay, Thiverval-Grignon France; Leclerc, Monique Y. [Department of Crop and Soil Sciences, College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of Georgia, Athens Georgia USA; Matteucci, Giorgio [Viea San Camillo Ed LellisViterbo, University of Tuscia, Viterbo Italy; Nagy, Zoltan [MTA-SZIE Plant Ecology Research Group, Szent Istvan University, Godollo Hungary; Olejnik, Janusz [Meteorology Department, Poznan University of Life Sciences, Poznan Poland; Department of Matter and Energy Fluxes, Global Change Research Center, Brno Czech Republic; Paw U, Kyaw Tha [Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis California USA; Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge USA; Varlagin, Andrej [A.N. Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow Russia
2016-04-06
Light use efficiency (LUE) models are widely used to simulate gross primary production (GPP). However, the treatment of the plant canopy as a big leaf by these models can introduce large uncertainties in simulated GPP. Recently, a two-leaf light use efficiency (TL-LUE) model was developed to simulate GPP separately for sunlit and shaded leaves and has been shown to outperform the big-leaf MOD17 model at 6 FLUX sites in China. In this study we investigated the performance of the TL-LUE model for a wider range of biomes. For this we optimized the parameters and tested the TL-LUE model using data from 98 FLUXNET sites which are distributed across the globe. The results showed that the TL-LUE model performed in general better than the MOD17 model in simulating 8-day GPP. Optimized maximum light use efficiency of shaded leaves (εmsh) was 2.63 to 4.59 times that of sunlit leaves (εmsu). Generally, the relationships of εmsh and εmsu with εmax were well described by linear equations, indicating the existence of general patterns across biomes. GPP simulated by the TL-LUE model was much less sensitive to biases in the photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) input than the MOD17 model. The results of this study suggest that the proposed TL-LUE model has the potential for simulating regional and global GPP of terrestrial ecosystems and it is more robust with regard to usual biases in input data than existing approaches which neglect the bi-modal within-canopy distribution of PAR.
Predictive Surface Complexation Modeling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Sverjensky, Dimitri A. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States). Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences
2016-11-29
Surface complexation plays an important role in the equilibria and kinetics of processes controlling the compositions of soilwaters and groundwaters, the fate of contaminants in groundwaters, and the subsurface storage of CO_{2} and nuclear waste. Over the last several decades, many dozens of individual experimental studies have addressed aspects of surface complexation that have contributed to an increased understanding of its role in natural systems. However, there has been no previous attempt to develop a model of surface complexation that can be used to link all the experimental studies in order to place them on a predictive basis. Overall, my research has successfully integrated the results of the work of many experimentalists published over several decades. For the first time in studies of the geochemistry of the mineral-water interface, a practical predictive capability for modeling has become available. The predictive correlations developed in my research now enable extrapolations of experimental studies to provide estimates of surface chemistry for systems not yet studied experimentally and for natural and anthropogenically perturbed systems.
Efficient marker data utilization in genomic prediction
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Edriss, Vahid
Genomic prediction is a novel method to recognize the best animals for breeding. The aim of this PhD is to improve the accuracy of genomic prediction in dairy cattle by effeiently utilizing marker data. The thesis focuses on three aspects for improving the genomc prediction, which are: criteria...
Predictability engenders more efficient neural responses
David M. Eagleman; Vani Pariyadath; Sara J. Churchill
2009-01-01
The neural response to a stimulus diminishes with repeated presentations, a phenomenon known as repetition suppression. We here use neuroimaging to demonstrate that repetition suppression appears to be a special case of "prediction suppression"--that is, the brain shows diminishing activity when subsequent stimuli in a train are predictable. This demonstration supports the hypothesis that the brain dynamically leverages prediction to minimize energy consumption.
Candidate Prediction Models and Methods
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik
2005-01-01
This document lists candidate prediction models for Work Package 3 (WP3) of the PSO-project called ``Intelligent wind power prediction systems'' (FU4101). The main focus is on the models transforming numerical weather predictions into predictions of power production. The document also outlines...
Piras, Patrick; Sheridan, Robert; Sherer, Edward C; Schafer, Wes; Welch, Christopher J; Roussel, Christian
2018-03-01
Predicting whether a chiral column will be effective is a daily task for many analysts. Moreover, finding the best chiral column for separating a particular racemic compound is mostly a matter of trial and error that may take up to a week in some cases. In this study we have developed a novel prediction approach based on combining a random forest classifier and an optimized discretization method for dealing with enantioselectivity as a continuous variable. Using the optimization results, models were trained on data sets divided into four enantioselectivity classes. The best model performances were achieved by over-sampling the minority classes (α ≤ 1.10 and α ≥ 2.00), down-sampling the majority class (1.2 ≤ α < 2.0), and aggregating multicategory predictions into binary classifications. We tested our method on 41 chiral stationary phases using layered fingerprints as descriptors. Experimental results show that this learning methodology was successful in terms of average area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve, Kappa indices and F-measure for structure-based prediction of the enantioselective behavior of 34 chiral columns. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.
Arakawa, Yuma; Nai, YingHwey; Shidahara, Miho; Furumoto, Shozo; Seki, Chie; Okamura, Nobuyuki; Tashiro, Manabu; Kudo, Yukitsuka; Yanai, Kazuhiko; Gonda, Kohsuke; Watabe, Hiroshi
2017-08-01
Our study aimed to develop a method to mathematically predict the kinetic parameters K 1 (influx rate constant), k 2 (efflux rate constant), and BP ND (nondisplaceable binding potential) of amyloid PET tracers and obtain SUV ratios (SUVRs) from predicted time-activity curves of target and reference regions. Methods: We investigated 10 clinically applied amyloid PET radioligands: 11 C-Pittsburgh compound B, 11 C-BF-227, 11 C-AZD2184, 11 C-SB-13, 18 F-FACT, 18 F-florbetapir, 18 F-florbetaben, 18 F-flutemetamol, 18 F-FDDNP, and 18 F-AZD4694. For each tracer, time-activity curves of both target and reference regions were generated using a simplified 1-tissue-compartment model, with an arterial plasma input function and the predicted kinetic parameters. K 1 , k 2 , and BP ND were derived from the lipophilicity (log P ), apparent volume, free fraction in plasma, free fraction in tissue, dissociation constant, and density of amyloid β using biomathematic modeling. Density was fixed at 3 nM to represent healthy control conditions and 50 nM to represent severe Alzheimer disease (AD). Predicted SUVRs for the healthy and AD groups were then obtained by dividing the integrated time-activity curve of the target region by that of the reference region. To validate the presented method, the predicted K 1 , k 2 , BP ND , and SUVR for the healthy and AD groups were compared with the respective clinically observed values. Results: The correlation between predicted and clinical kinetic parameters had an R 2 value of 0.73 for K 1 in the healthy group, 0.71 for K 1 in the AD group, 0.81 for k 2 in the healthy group, 0.85 for k 2 in the AD group, and 0.63 for BP ND in the AD group. The regression relationship between the predicted SUVR ( y ) and the clinical SUVR ( x ) for the healthy and the AD groups was y = 2.73 x - 2.11 ( R 2 = 0.72). Conclusion: The proposed method showed a good correlation between predicted and clinical SUVR for the 10 clinically applied amyloid tracers. © 2017
Modeling and Prediction Using Stochastic Differential Equations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Juhl, Rune; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Jørgensen, John Bagterp
2016-01-01
deterministic and can predict the future perfectly. A more realistic approach would be to allow for randomness in the model due to e.g., the model be too simple or errors in input. We describe a modeling and prediction setup which better reflects reality and suggests stochastic differential equations (SDEs......) for modeling and forecasting. It is argued that this gives models and predictions which better reflect reality. The SDE approach also offers a more adequate framework for modeling and a number of efficient tools for model building. A software package (CTSM-R) for SDE-based modeling is briefly described....... that describes the variation between subjects. The ODE setup implies that the variation for a single subject is described by a single parameter (or vector), namely the variance (covariance) of the residuals. Furthermore the prediction of the states is given as the solution to the ODEs and hence assumed...
Predictive efficiency of ridge regression estimator
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tiwari Manoj
2017-01-01
Full Text Available In this article we have considered the problem of prediction within and outside the sample for actual and average values of the study variables in case of ordinary least squares and ridge regression estimators. Finally, the performance properties of the estimators are analyzed.
Confidence scores for prediction models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gerds, Thomas Alexander; van de Wiel, MA
2011-01-01
In medical statistics, many alternative strategies are available for building a prediction model based on training data. Prediction models are routinely compared by means of their prediction performance in independent validation data. If only one data set is available for training and validation......, then rival strategies can still be compared based on repeated bootstraps of the same data. Often, however, the overall performance of rival strategies is similar and it is thus difficult to decide for one model. Here, we investigate the variability of the prediction models that results when the same...... to distinguish rival prediction models with similar prediction performances. Furthermore, on the subject level a confidence score may provide useful supplementary information for new patients who want to base a medical decision on predicted risk. The ideas are illustrated and discussed using data from cancer...
Efficient Turbulence Modeling for CFD Wake Simulations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
van der Laan, Paul
, that can accurately and efficiently simulate wind turbine wakes. The linear k-ε eddy viscosity model (EVM) is a popular turbulence model in RANS; however, it underpredicts the velocity wake deficit and cannot predict the anisotropic Reynolds-stresses in the wake. In the current work, nonlinear eddy...... viscosity models (NLEVM) are applied to wind turbine wakes. NLEVMs can model anisotropic turbulence through a nonlinear stress-strain relation, and they can improve the velocity deficit by the use of a variable eddy viscosity coefficient, that delays the wake recovery. Unfortunately, all tested NLEVMs show...... numerically unstable behavior for fine grids, which inhibits a grid dependency study for numerical verification. Therefore, a simpler EVM is proposed, labeled as the k-ε - fp EVM, that has a linear stress-strain relation, but still has a variable eddy viscosity coefficient. The k-ε - fp EVM is numerically...
ANNIT - An Efficient Inversion Algorithm based on Prediction Principles
Růžek, B.; Kolář, P.
2009-04-01
Solution of inverse problems represents meaningful job in geophysics. The amount of data is continuously increasing, methods of modeling are being improved and the computer facilities are also advancing great technical progress. Therefore the development of new and efficient algorithms and computer codes for both forward and inverse modeling is still up to date. ANNIT is contributing to this stream since it is a tool for efficient solution of a set of non-linear equations. Typical geophysical problems are based on parametric approach. The system is characterized by a vector of parameters p, the response of the system is characterized by a vector of data d. The forward problem is usually represented by unique mapping F(p)=d. The inverse problem is much more complex and the inverse mapping p=G(d) is available in an analytical or closed form only exceptionally and generally it may not exist at all. Technically, both forward and inverse mapping F and G are sets of non-linear equations. ANNIT solves such situation as follows: (i) joint subspaces {pD, pM} of original data and model spaces D, M, resp. are searched for, within which the forward mapping F is sufficiently smooth that the inverse mapping G does exist, (ii) numerical approximation of G in subspaces {pD, pM} is found, (iii) candidate solution is predicted by using this numerical approximation. ANNIT is working in an iterative way in cycles. The subspaces {pD, pM} are searched for by generating suitable populations of individuals (models) covering data and model spaces. The approximation of the inverse mapping is made by using three methods: (a) linear regression, (b) Radial Basis Function Network technique, (c) linear prediction (also known as "Kriging"). The ANNIT algorithm has built in also an archive of already evaluated models. Archive models are re-used in a suitable way and thus the number of forward evaluations is minimized. ANNIT is now implemented both in MATLAB and SCILAB. Numerical tests show good
Intelligent Prediction of Sieving Efficiency in Vibrating Screens
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bin Zhang
2016-01-01
Full Text Available In order to effectively predict the sieving efficiency of a vibrating screen, experiments to investigate the sieving efficiency were carried out. Relation between sieving efficiency and other working parameters in a vibrating screen such as mesh aperture size, screen length, inclination angle, vibration amplitude, and vibration frequency was analyzed. Based on the experiments, least square support vector machine (LS-SVM was established to predict the sieving efficiency, and adaptive genetic algorithm and cross-validation algorithm were used to optimize the parameters in LS-SVM. By the examination of testing points, the prediction performance of least square support vector machine is better than that of the existing formula and neural network, and its average relative error is only 4.2%.
Bootstrap prediction and Bayesian prediction under misspecified models
Fushiki, Tadayoshi
2005-01-01
We consider a statistical prediction problem under misspecified models. In a sense, Bayesian prediction is an optimal prediction method when an assumed model is true. Bootstrap prediction is obtained by applying Breiman's `bagging' method to a plug-in prediction. Bootstrap prediction can be considered to be an approximation to the Bayesian prediction under the assumption that the model is true. However, in applications, there are frequently deviations from the assumed model. In this paper, bo...
Prediction models in complex terrain
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Marti, I.; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik
2001-01-01
The objective of the work is to investigatethe performance of HIRLAM in complex terrain when used as input to energy production forecasting models, and to develop a statistical model to adapt HIRLAM prediction to the wind farm. The features of the terrain, specially the topography, influence...... the performance of HIRLAM in particular with respect to wind predictions. To estimate the performance of the model two spatial resolutions (0,5 Deg. and 0.2 Deg.) and different sets of HIRLAM variables were used to predict wind speed and energy production. The predictions of energy production for the wind farms...... are calculated using on-line measurements of power production as well as HIRLAM predictions as input thus taking advantage of the auto-correlation, which is present in the power production for shorter pediction horizons. Statistical models are used to discribe the relationship between observed energy production...
Novel Intermode Prediction Algorithm for High Efficiency Video Coding Encoder
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chan-seob Park
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The joint collaborative team on video coding (JCT-VC is developing the next-generation video coding standard which is called high efficiency video coding (HEVC. In the HEVC, there are three units in block structure: coding unit (CU, prediction unit (PU, and transform unit (TU. The CU is the basic unit of region splitting like macroblock (MB. Each CU performs recursive splitting into four blocks with equal size, starting from the tree block. In this paper, we propose a fast CU depth decision algorithm for HEVC technology to reduce its computational complexity. In 2N×2N PU, the proposed method compares the rate-distortion (RD cost and determines the depth using the compared information. Moreover, in order to speed up the encoding time, the efficient merge SKIP detection method is developed additionally based on the contextual mode information of neighboring CUs. Experimental result shows that the proposed algorithm achieves the average time-saving factor of 44.84% in the random access (RA at Main profile configuration with the HEVC test model (HM 10.0 reference software. Compared to HM 10.0 encoder, a small BD-bitrate loss of 0.17% is also observed without significant loss of image quality.
Modelling water uptake efficiency of root systems
Leitner, Daniel; Tron, Stefania; Schröder, Natalie; Bodner, Gernot; Javaux, Mathieu; Vanderborght, Jan; Vereecken, Harry; Schnepf, Andrea
2016-04-01
Water uptake is crucial for plant productivity. Trait based breeding for more water efficient crops will enable a sustainable agricultural management under specific pedoclimatic conditions, and can increase drought resistance of plants. Mathematical modelling can be used to find suitable root system traits for better water uptake efficiency defined as amount of water taken up per unit of root biomass. This approach requires large simulation times and large number of simulation runs, since we test different root systems under different pedoclimatic conditions. In this work, we model water movement by the 1-dimensional Richards equation with the soil hydraulic properties described according to the van Genuchten model. Climatic conditions serve as the upper boundary condition. The root system grows during the simulation period and water uptake is calculated via a sink term (after Tron et al. 2015). The goal of this work is to compare different free software tools based on different numerical schemes to solve the model. We compare implementations using DUMUX (based on finite volumes), Hydrus 1D (based on finite elements), and a Matlab implementation of Van Dam, J. C., & Feddes 2000 (based on finite differences). We analyse the methods for accuracy, speed and flexibility. Using this model case study, we can clearly show the impact of various root system traits on water uptake efficiency. Furthermore, we can quantify frequent simplifications that are introduced in the modelling step like considering a static root system instead of a growing one, or considering a sink term based on root density instead of considering the full root hydraulic model (Javaux et al. 2008). References Tron, S., Bodner, G., Laio, F., Ridolfi, L., & Leitner, D. (2015). Can diversity in root architecture explain plant water use efficiency? A modeling study. Ecological modelling, 312, 200-210. Van Dam, J. C., & Feddes, R. A. (2000). Numerical simulation of infiltration, evaporation and shallow
MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL FUNDAMENTALS
African Journals Online (AJOL)
2012-07-02
Jul 2, 2012 ... Linear MPC. 1. Uses linear model: ˙x = Ax + Bu. 2. Quadratic cost function: F = xT Qx + uT Ru. 3. Linear constraints: Hx + Gu < 0. 4. Quadratic program. Nonlinear MPC. 1. Nonlinear model: ˙x = f(x, u). 2. Cost function can be nonquadratic: F = (x, u). 3. Nonlinear constraints: h(x, u) < 0. 4. Nonlinear program.
Modelling bankruptcy prediction models in Slovak companies
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kovacova Maria
2017-01-01
Full Text Available An intensive research from academics and practitioners has been provided regarding models for bankruptcy prediction and credit risk management. In spite of numerous researches focusing on forecasting bankruptcy using traditional statistics techniques (e.g. discriminant analysis and logistic regression and early artificial intelligence models (e.g. artificial neural networks, there is a trend for transition to machine learning models (support vector machines, bagging, boosting, and random forest to predict bankruptcy one year prior to the event. Comparing the performance of this with unconventional approach with results obtained by discriminant analysis, logistic regression, and neural networks application, it has been found that bagging, boosting, and random forest models outperform the others techniques, and that all prediction accuracy in the testing sample improves when the additional variables are included. On the other side the prediction accuracy of old and well known bankruptcy prediction models is quiet high. Therefore, we aim to analyse these in some way old models on the dataset of Slovak companies to validate their prediction ability in specific conditions. Furthermore, these models will be modelled according to new trends by calculating the influence of elimination of selected variables on the overall prediction ability of these models.
Melanoma Risk Prediction Models
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing melanoma cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
Predictive models of moth development
Degree-day models link ambient temperature to insect life-stages, making such models valuable tools in integrated pest management. These models increase management efficacy by predicting pest phenology. In Wisconsin, the top insect pest of cranberry production is the cranberry fruitworm, Acrobasis v...
Predictive Models and Computational Embryology
EPA’s ‘virtual embryo’ project is building an integrative systems biology framework for predictive models of developmental toxicity. One schema involves a knowledge-driven adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework utilizing information from public databases, standardized ontologies...
DASPfind: new efficient method to predict drug–target interactions
Ba Alawi, Wail
2016-03-16
Background Identification of novel drug–target interactions (DTIs) is important for drug discovery. Experimental determination of such DTIs is costly and time consuming, hence it necessitates the development of efficient computational methods for the accurate prediction of potential DTIs. To-date, many computational methods have been proposed for this purpose, but they suffer the drawback of a high rate of false positive predictions. Results Here, we developed a novel computational DTI prediction method, DASPfind. DASPfind uses simple paths of particular lengths inferred from a graph that describes DTIs, similarities between drugs, and similarities between the protein targets of drugs. We show that on average, over the four gold standard DTI datasets, DASPfind significantly outperforms other existing methods when the single top-ranked predictions are considered, resulting in 46.17 % of these predictions being correct, and it achieves 49.22 % correct single top ranked predictions when the set of all DTIs for a single drug is tested. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our method is best suited for predicting DTIs in cases of drugs with no known targets or with few known targets. We also show the practical use of DASPfind by generating novel predictions for the Ion Channel dataset and validating them manually. Conclusions DASPfind is a computational method for finding reliable new interactions between drugs and proteins. We show over six different DTI datasets that DASPfind outperforms other state-of-the-art methods when the single top-ranked predictions are considered, or when a drug with no known targets or with few known targets is considered. We illustrate the usefulness and practicality of DASPfind by predicting novel DTIs for the Ion Channel dataset. The validated predictions suggest that DASPfind can be used as an efficient method to identify correct DTIs, thus reducing the cost of necessary experimental verifications in the process of drug discovery. DASPfind
Model Predictive Control of Sewer Networks
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedersen, Einar B.; Herbertsson, Hannes R.; Niemann, Henrik
2016-01-01
The developments in solutions for management of urban drainage are of vital importance, as the amount of sewer water from urban areas continues to increase due to the increase of the world’s population and the change in the climate conditions. How a sewer network is structured, monitored and cont...... benchmark model. Due to the inherent constraints the applied approach is based on Model Predictive Control....... and controlled have thus become essential factors for efficient performance of waste water treatment plants. This paper examines methods for simplified modelling and controlling a sewer network. A practical approach to the problem is used by analysing simplified design model, which is based on the Barcelona...
Predictions models with neural nets
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vladimír Konečný
2008-01-01
Full Text Available The contribution is oriented to basic problem trends solution of economic pointers, using neural networks. Problems include choice of the suitable model and consequently configuration of neural nets, choice computational function of neurons and the way prediction learning. The contribution contains two basic models that use structure of multilayer neural nets and way of determination their configuration. It is postulate a simple rule for teaching period of neural net, to get most credible prediction.Experiments are executed with really data evolution of exchange rate Kč/Euro. The main reason of choice this time series is their availability for sufficient long period. In carry out of experiments the both given basic kind of prediction models with most frequent use functions of neurons are verified. Achieve prediction results are presented as in numerical and so in graphical forms.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li, Dongsheng; Sun, Xin; Khaleel, Mohammad A.
2011-01-01
This study evaluated different upscaling methods to predict thermal conductivity in loaded nuclear waste form, a heterogeneous material system. The efficiency and accuracy of these methods were compared. Thermal conductivity in loaded nuclear waste form is an important property specific to scientific researchers, in waste form Integrated performance and safety code (IPSC). The effective thermal conductivity obtained from microstructure information and local thermal conductivity of different components is critical in predicting the life and performance of waste form during storage. How the heat generated during storage is directly related to thermal conductivity, which in turn determining the mechanical deformation behavior, corrosion resistance and aging performance. Several methods, including the Taylor model, Sachs model, self-consistent model, and statistical upscaling models were developed and implemented. Due to the absence of experimental data, prediction results from finite element method (FEM) were used as reference to determine the accuracy of different upscaling models. Micrographs from different loading of nuclear waste were used in the prediction of thermal conductivity. Prediction results demonstrated that in term of efficiency, boundary models (Taylor and Sachs model) are better than self consistent model, statistical upscaling method and FEM. Balancing the computation resource and accuracy, statistical upscaling is a computational efficient method in predicting effective thermal conductivity for nuclear waste form.
Specialization does not predict individual efficiency in an ant.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Anna Dornhaus
2008-11-01
Full Text Available The ecological success of social insects is often attributed to an increase in efficiency achieved through division of labor between workers in a colony. Much research has therefore focused on the mechanism by which a division of labor is implemented, i.e., on how tasks are allocated to workers. However, the important assumption that specialists are indeed more efficient at their work than generalist individuals--the "Jack-of-all-trades is master of none" hypothesis--has rarely been tested. Here, I quantify worker efficiency, measured as work completed per time, in four different tasks in the ant Temnothorax albipennis: honey and protein foraging, collection of nest-building material, and brood transports in a colony emigration. I show that individual efficiency is not predicted by how specialized workers were on the respective task. Worker efficiency is also not consistently predicted by that worker's overall activity or delay to begin the task. Even when only the worker's rank relative to nestmates in the same colony was used, specialization did not predict efficiency in three out of the four tasks, and more specialized workers actually performed worse than others in the fourth task (collection of sand grains. I also show that the above relationships, as well as median individual efficiency, do not change with colony size. My results demonstrate that in an ant species without morphologically differentiated worker castes, workers may nevertheless differ in their ability to perform different tasks. Surprisingly, this variation is not utilized by the colony--worker allocation to tasks is unrelated to their ability to perform them. What, then, are the adaptive benefits of behavioral specialization, and why do workers choose tasks without regard for whether they can perform them well? We are still far from an understanding of the adaptive benefits of division of labor in social insects.
What do saliency models predict?
Koehler, Kathryn; Guo, Fei; Zhang, Sheng; Eckstein, Miguel P.
2014-01-01
Saliency models have been frequently used to predict eye movements made during image viewing without a specified task (free viewing). Use of a single image set to systematically compare free viewing to other tasks has never been performed. We investigated the effect of task differences on the ability of three models of saliency to predict the performance of humans viewing a novel database of 800 natural images. We introduced a novel task where 100 observers made explicit perceptual judgments about the most salient image region. Other groups of observers performed a free viewing task, saliency search task, or cued object search task. Behavior on the popular free viewing task was not best predicted by standard saliency models. Instead, the models most accurately predicted the explicit saliency selections and eye movements made while performing saliency judgments. Observers' fixations varied similarly across images for the saliency and free viewing tasks, suggesting that these two tasks are related. The variability of observers' eye movements was modulated by the task (lowest for the object search task and greatest for the free viewing and saliency search tasks) as well as the clutter content of the images. Eye movement variability in saliency search and free viewing might be also limited by inherent variation of what observers consider salient. Our results contribute to understanding the tasks and behavioral measures for which saliency models are best suited as predictors of human behavior, the relationship across various perceptual tasks, and the factors contributing to observer variability in fixational eye movements. PMID:24618107
Prediction Models for Dynamic Demand Response
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Aman, Saima; Frincu, Marc; Chelmis, Charalampos; Noor, Muhammad; Simmhan, Yogesh; Prasanna, Viktor K.
2015-11-02
As Smart Grids move closer to dynamic curtailment programs, Demand Response (DR) events will become necessary not only on fixed time intervals and weekdays predetermined by static policies, but also during changing decision periods and weekends to react to real-time demand signals. Unique challenges arise in this context vis-a-vis demand prediction and curtailment estimation and the transformation of such tasks into an automated, efficient dynamic demand response (D^{2}R) process. While existing work has concentrated on increasing the accuracy of prediction models for DR, there is a lack of studies for prediction models for D^{2}R, which we address in this paper. Our first contribution is the formal definition of D^{2}R, and the description of its challenges and requirements. Our second contribution is a feasibility analysis of very-short-term prediction of electricity consumption for D^{2}R over a diverse, large-scale dataset that includes both small residential customers and large buildings. Our third, and major contribution is a set of insights into the predictability of electricity consumption in the context of D^{2}R. Specifically, we focus on prediction models that can operate at a very small data granularity (here 15-min intervals), for both weekdays and weekends - all conditions that characterize scenarios for D^{2}R. We find that short-term time series and simple averaging models used by Independent Service Operators and utilities achieve superior prediction accuracy. We also observe that workdays are more predictable than weekends and holiday. Also, smaller customers have large variation in consumption and are less predictable than larger buildings. Key implications of our findings are that better models are required for small customers and for non-workdays, both of which are critical for D^{2}R. Also, prediction models require just few days’ worth of data indicating that small amounts of
Predicting Recovery Potential for Individual Stroke Patients Increases Rehabilitation Efficiency.
Stinear, Cathy M; Byblow, Winston D; Ackerley, Suzanne J; Barber, P Alan; Smith, Marie-Claire
2017-04-01
Several clinical measures and biomarkers are associated with motor recovery after stroke, but none are used to guide rehabilitation for individual patients. The objective of this study was to evaluate the implementation of upper limb predictions in stroke rehabilitation, by combining clinical measures and biomarkers using the Predict Recovery Potential (PREP) algorithm. Predictions were provided for patients in the implementation group (n=110) and withheld from the comparison group (n=82). Predictions guided rehabilitation therapy focus for patients in the implementation group. The effects of predictive information on clinical practice (length of stay, therapist confidence, therapy content, and dose) were evaluated. Clinical outcomes (upper limb function, impairment and use, independence, and quality of life) were measured 3 and 6 months poststroke. The primary clinical practice outcome was inpatient length of stay. The primary clinical outcome was Action Research Arm Test score 3 months poststroke. Length of stay was 1 week shorter for the implementation group (11 days; 95% confidence interval, 9-13 days) than the comparison group (17 days; 95% confidence interval, 14-21 days; P =0.001), controlling for upper limb impairment, age, sex, and comorbidities. Therapists were more confident ( P =0.004) and modified therapy content according to predictions for the implementation group ( P rehabilitation efficiency after stroke without compromising clinical outcome. URL: http://anzctr.org.au. Unique identifier: ACTRN12611000755932. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.
Efficient Parallel Algorithms for Landscape Evolution Modelling
Moresi, L. N.; Mather, B.; Beucher, R.
2017-12-01
Landscape erosion and the deposition of sediments by river systems are strongly controlled bytopography, rainfall patterns, and the susceptibility of the basement to the action ofrunning water. It is well understood that each of these processes depends on the other, for example:topography results from active tectonic processes; deformation, metamorphosis andexhumation alter the competence of the basement; rainfall patterns depend on topography;uplift and subsidence in response to tectonic stress can be amplified by erosionand sediment deposition. We typically gain understanding of such coupled systems through forward models which capture theessential interactions of the various components and attempt parameterise those parts of the individual systemthat are unresolvable at the scale of the interaction. Here we address the problem of predicting erosion and deposition rates at a continental scalewith a resolution of tens to hundreds of metres in a dynamic, Lagrangian framework. This isa typical requirement for a code to interface with a mantle / lithosphere dynamics model anddemands an efficient, unstructured, parallel implementation. We address this through a very general algorithm that treats all parts of the landscape evolution equationsin sparse-matrix form including those for stream-flow accumulation, dam-filling and catchment determination. This givesus considerable flexibility in developing unstructured, parallel code, and in creating a modular packagethat can be configured by users to work at different temporal and spatial scales, but is also has potential advantagesin treating the non-linear parts of the problem in a general manner.
Sparse RNA folding revisited: space-efficient minimum free energy structure prediction.
Will, Sebastian; Jabbari, Hosna
2016-01-01
RNA secondary structure prediction by energy minimization is the central computational tool for the analysis of structural non-coding RNAs and their interactions. Sparsification has been successfully applied to improve the time efficiency of various structure prediction algorithms while guaranteeing the same result; however, for many such folding problems, space efficiency is of even greater concern, particularly for long RNA sequences. So far, space-efficient sparsified RNA folding with fold reconstruction was solved only for simple base-pair-based pseudo-energy models. Here, we revisit the problem of space-efficient free energy minimization. Whereas the space-efficient minimization of the free energy has been sketched before, the reconstruction of the optimum structure has not even been discussed. We show that this reconstruction is not possible in trivial extension of the method for simple energy models. Then, we present the time- and space-efficient sparsified free energy minimization algorithm SparseMFEFold that guarantees MFE structure prediction. In particular, this novel algorithm provides efficient fold reconstruction based on dynamically garbage-collected trace arrows. The complexity of our algorithm depends on two parameters, the number of candidates Z and the number of trace arrows T; both are bounded by [Formula: see text], but are typically much smaller. The time complexity of RNA folding is reduced from [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text]; the space complexity, from [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text]. Our empirical results show more than 80 % space savings over RNAfold [Vienna RNA package] on the long RNAs from the RNA STRAND database (≥2500 bases). The presented technique is intentionally generalizable to complex prediction algorithms; due to their high space demands, algorithms like pseudoknot prediction and RNA-RNA-interaction prediction are expected to profit even stronger than "standard" MFE folding. SparseMFEFold is free
Energy-Efficient Integration of Continuous Context Sensing and Prediction into Smartwatches
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Reza Rawassizadeh
2015-09-01
Full Text Available As the availability and use of wearables increases, they are becoming a promising platform for context sensing and context analysis. Smartwatches are a particularly interesting platform for this purpose, as they offer salient advantages, such as their proximity to the human body. However, they also have limitations associated with their small form factor, such as processing power and battery life, which makes it difficult to simply transfer smartphone-based context sensing and prediction models to smartwatches. In this paper, we introduce an energy-efficient, generic, integrated framework for continuous context sensing and prediction on smartwatches. Our work extends previous approaches for context sensing and prediction on wrist-mounted wearables that perform predictive analytics outside the device. We offer a generic sensing module and a novel energy-efficient, on-device prediction module that is based on a semantic abstraction approach to convert sensor data into meaningful information objects, similar to human perception of a behavior. Through six evaluations, we analyze the energy efficiency of our framework modules, identify the optimal file structure for data access and demonstrate an increase in accuracy of prediction through our semantic abstraction method. The proposed framework is hardware independent and can serve as a reference model for implementing context sensing and prediction on small wearable devices beyond smartwatches, such as body-mounted cameras.
Modeling Fuel Efficiency: MPG or GPHM?
Bartkovich, Kevin G.
2013-01-01
The standard for measuring fuel efficiency in the U.S. has been miles per gallon (mpg). However, the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) switch in rating fuel efficiency from miles per gallon to gallons per hundred miles with the 2013 model-year cars leads to interesting and relevant mathematics with real-world connections. By modeling…
Efficiently adapting graphical models for selectivity estimation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Tzoumas, Kostas; Deshpande, Amol; Jensen, Christian S.
2013-01-01
in estimation accuracy. We show how to efficiently construct such a graphical model from the database using only two-way join queries, and we show how to perform selectivity estimation in a highly efficient manner. We integrate our algorithms into the PostgreSQL DBMS. Experimental results indicate...
Electrostatic ion thrusters - towards predictive modeling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kalentev, O.; Matyash, K.; Duras, J.; Lueskow, K.F.; Schneider, R. [Ernst-Moritz-Arndt Universitaet Greifswald, D-17489 (Germany); Koch, N. [Technische Hochschule Nuernberg Georg Simon Ohm, Kesslerplatz 12, D-90489 Nuernberg (Germany); Schirra, M. [Thales Electronic Systems GmbH, Soeflinger Strasse 100, D-89077 Ulm (Germany)
2014-02-15
The development of electrostatic ion thrusters so far has mainly been based on empirical and qualitative know-how, and on evolutionary iteration steps. This resulted in considerable effort regarding prototype design, construction and testing and therefore in significant development and qualification costs and high time demands. For future developments it is anticipated to implement simulation tools which allow for quantitative prediction of ion thruster performance, long-term behavior and space craft interaction prior to hardware design and construction. Based on integrated numerical models combining self-consistent kinetic plasma models with plasma-wall interaction modules a new quality in the description of electrostatic thrusters can be reached. These open the perspective for predictive modeling in this field. This paper reviews the application of a set of predictive numerical modeling tools on an ion thruster model of the HEMP-T (High Efficiency Multi-stage Plasma Thruster) type patented by Thales Electron Devices GmbH. (copyright 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim) (orig.)
BOREAS TE-17 Production Efficiency Model Images
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A BOREAS version of the Global Production Efficiency Model(www.inform.umd.edu/glopem) was developed by TE-17 to generate maps of gross and net primary production,...
Modelling fluidized catalytic cracking unit stripper efficiency
García-Dopico M.; García A.
2015-01-01
This paper presents our modelling of a FCCU stripper, following our earlier research. This model can measure stripper efficiency against the most important variables: pressure, temperature, residence time and steam flow. Few models in the literature model the stripper and usually they do against only one variable. Nevertheless, there is general agreement on the importance of the stripper in the overall process, and the fact that there are few models maybe i...
Caries risk assessment models in caries prediction
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Amila Zukanović
2013-11-01
Full Text Available Objective. The aim of this research was to assess the efficiency of different multifactor models in caries prediction. Material and methods. Data from the questionnaire and objective examination of 109 examinees was entered into the Cariogram, Previser and Caries-Risk Assessment Tool (CAT multifactor risk assessment models. Caries risk was assessed with the help of all three models for each patient, classifying them as low, medium or high-risk patients. The development of new caries lesions over a period of three years [Decay Missing Filled Tooth (DMFT increment = difference between Decay Missing Filled Tooth Surface (DMFTS index at baseline and follow up], provided for examination of the predictive capacity concerning different multifactor models. Results. The data gathered showed that different multifactor risk assessment models give significantly different results (Friedman test: Chi square = 100.073, p=0.000. Cariogram is the model which identified the majority of examinees as medium risk patients (70%. The other two models were more radical in risk assessment, giving more unfavorable risk –profiles for patients. In only 12% of the patients did the three multifactor models assess the risk in the same way. Previser and CAT gave the same results in 63% of cases – the Wilcoxon test showed that there is no statistically significant difference in caries risk assessment between these two models (Z = -1.805, p=0.071. Conclusions. Evaluation of three different multifactor caries risk assessment models (Cariogram, PreViser and CAT showed that only the Cariogram can successfully predict new caries development in 12-year-old Bosnian children.
Towards a generalized energy prediction model for machine tools.
Bhinge, Raunak; Park, Jinkyoo; Law, Kincho H; Dornfeld, David A; Helu, Moneer; Rachuri, Sudarsan
2017-04-01
Energy prediction of machine tools can deliver many advantages to a manufacturing enterprise, ranging from energy-efficient process planning to machine tool monitoring. Physics-based, energy prediction models have been proposed in the past to understand the energy usage pattern of a machine tool. However, uncertainties in both the machine and the operating environment make it difficult to predict the energy consumption of the target machine reliably. Taking advantage of the opportunity to collect extensive, contextual, energy-consumption data, we discuss a data-driven approach to develop an energy prediction model of a machine tool in this paper. First, we present a methodology that can efficiently and effectively collect and process data extracted from a machine tool and its sensors. We then present a data-driven model that can be used to predict the energy consumption of the machine tool for machining a generic part. Specifically, we use Gaussian Process (GP) Regression, a non-parametric machine-learning technique, to develop the prediction model. The energy prediction model is then generalized over multiple process parameters and operations. Finally, we apply this generalized model with a method to assess uncertainty intervals to predict the energy consumed to machine any part using a Mori Seiki NVD1500 machine tool. Furthermore, the same model can be used during process planning to optimize the energy-efficiency of a machining process.
An efficient link prediction index for complex military organization
Fan, Changjun; Liu, Zhong; Lu, Xin; Xiu, Baoxin; Chen, Qing
2017-03-01
Quality of information is crucial for decision-makers to judge the battlefield situations and design the best operation plans, however, real intelligence data are often incomplete and noisy, where missing links prediction methods and spurious links identification algorithms can be applied, if modeling the complex military organization as the complex network where nodes represent functional units and edges denote communication links. Traditional link prediction methods usually work well on homogeneous networks, but few for the heterogeneous ones. And the military network is a typical heterogeneous network, where there are different types of nodes and edges. In this paper, we proposed a combined link prediction index considering both the nodes' types effects and nodes' structural similarities, and demonstrated that it is remarkably superior to all the 25 existing similarity-based methods both in predicting missing links and identifying spurious links in a real military network data; we also investigated the algorithms' robustness under noisy environment, and found the mistaken information is more misleading than incomplete information in military areas, which is different from that in recommendation systems, and our method maintained the best performance under the condition of small noise. Since the real military network intelligence must be carefully checked at first due to its significance, and link prediction methods are just adopted to purify the network with the left latent noise, the method proposed here is applicable in real situations. In the end, as the FINC-E model, here used to describe the complex military organizations, is also suitable to many other social organizations, such as criminal networks, business organizations, etc., thus our method has its prospects in these areas for many tasks, like detecting the underground relationships between terrorists, predicting the potential business markets for decision-makers, and so on.
A Traffic Prediction Algorithm for Street Lighting Control Efficiency
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
POPA Valentin
2013-01-01
Full Text Available This paper presents the development of a traffic prediction algorithm that can be integrated in a street lighting monitoring and control system. The prediction algorithm must enable the reduction of energy costs and improve energy efficiency by decreasing the light intensity depending on the traffic level. The algorithm analyses and processes the information received at the command center based on the traffic level at different moments. The data is collected by means of the Doppler vehicle detection sensors integrated within the system. Thus, two methods are used for the implementation of the algorithm: a neural network and a k-NN (k-Nearest Neighbor prediction algorithm. For 500 training cycles, the mean square error of the neural network is 9.766 and for 500.000 training cycles the error amounts to 0.877. In case of the k-NN algorithm the error increases from 8.24 for k=5 to 12.27 for a number of 50 neighbors. In terms of a root means square error parameter, the use of a neural network ensures the highest performance level and can be integrated in a street lighting control system.
Geometrical efficiency in computerized tomography: generalized model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Costa, P.R.; Robilotta, C.C.
1992-01-01
A simplified model for producing sensitivity and exposure profiles in computerized tomographic system was recently developed allowing the forecast of profiles behaviour in the rotation center of the system. The generalization of this model for some point of the image plane was described, and the geometrical efficiency could be evaluated. (C.G.C.)
Flight Test Maneuvers for Efficient Aerodynamic Modeling
Morelli, Eugene A.
2011-01-01
Novel flight test maneuvers for efficient aerodynamic modeling were developed and demonstrated in flight. Orthogonal optimized multi-sine inputs were applied to aircraft control surfaces to excite aircraft dynamic response in all six degrees of freedom simultaneously while keeping the aircraft close to chosen reference flight conditions. Each maneuver was designed for a specific modeling task that cannot be adequately or efficiently accomplished using conventional flight test maneuvers. All of the new maneuvers were first described and explained, then demonstrated on a subscale jet transport aircraft in flight. Real-time and post-flight modeling results obtained using equation-error parameter estimation in the frequency domain were used to show the effectiveness and efficiency of the new maneuvers, as well as the quality of the aerodynamic models that can be identified from the resultant flight data.
Prediction of Protein Thermostability by an Efficient Neural Network Approach
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jalal Rezaeenour
2016-10-01
significantly improves the accuracy of ELM in prediction of thermostable enzymes. ELM tends to require more neurons in the hidden-layer than conventional tuning-based learning algorithms. To overcome these, the proposed approach uses a GA which optimizes the structure and the parameters of the ELM. In summary, optimization of ELM with GA results in an efficient prediction method; numerical experiments proved that our approach yields excellent results.
Efficient experimental designs for sigmoidal growth models
Dette, Holger; Pepelyshev, Andrey
2005-01-01
For the Weibull- and Richards-regression model robust designs are determined by maximizing a minimum of D- or D1-efficiencies, taken over a certain range of the non-linear parameters. It is demonstrated that the derived designs yield a satisfactory solution of the optimal design problem for this type of model in the sense that these designs are efficient and robust with respect to misspecification of the unknown parameters. Moreover, the designs can also be used for testing the postulated for...
Modeling of alpha mass-efficiency curve
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Semkow, T.M.; Jeter, H.W.; Parsa, B.; Parekh, P.P.; Haines, D.K.; Bari, A.
2005-01-01
We present a model for efficiency of a detector counting gross α radioactivity from both thin and thick samples, corresponding to low and high sample masses in the counting planchette. The model includes self-absorption of α particles in the sample, energy loss in the absorber, range straggling, as well as detector edge effects. The surface roughness of the sample is treated in terms of fractal geometry. The model reveals a linear dependence of the detector efficiency on the sample mass, for low masses, as well as a power-law dependence for high masses. It is, therefore, named the linear-power-law (LPL) model. In addition, we consider an empirical power-law (EPL) curve, and an exponential (EXP) curve. A comparison is made of the LPL, EPL, and EXP fits to the experimental α mass-efficiency data from gas-proportional detectors for selected radionuclides: 238 U, 230 Th, 239 Pu, 241 Am, and 244 Cm. Based on this comparison, we recommend working equations for fitting mass-efficiency data. Measurement of α radioactivity from a thick sample can determine the fractal dimension of its surface
Predicting Efficient Antenna Ligands for Tb(III) Emission
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Samuel, Amanda P.S.; Xu, Jide; Raymond, Kenneth
2008-10-06
A series of highly luminescent Tb(III) complexes of para-substituted 2-hydroxyisophthalamide ligands (5LI-IAM-X) has been prepared (X = H, CH{sub 3}, (C=O)NHCH{sub 3}, SO{sub 3}{sup -}, NO{sub 2}, OCH{sub 3}, F, Cl, Br) to probe the effect of substituting the isophthalamide ring on ligand and Tb(III) emission in order to establish a method for predicting the effects of chromophore modification on Tb(III) luminescence. The energies of the ligand singlet and triplet excited states are found to increase linearly with the {pi}-withdrawing ability of the substituent. The experimental results are supported by time-dependent density functional theory (TD-DFT) calculations performed on model systems, which predict ligand singlet and triplet energies within {approx}5% of the experimental values. The quantum yield ({Phi}) values of the Tb(III) complex increases with the triplet energy of the ligand, which is in part due to the decreased non-radiative deactivation caused by thermal repopulation of the triplet. Together, the experimental and theoretical results serve as a predictive tool that can be used to guide the synthesis of ligands used to sensitize lanthanide luminescence.
Inferential ecosystem models, from network data to prediction
James S. Clark; Pankaj Agarwal; David M. Bell; Paul G. Flikkema; Alan Gelfand; Xuanlong Nguyen; Eric Ward; Jun. Yang
2011-01-01
Recent developments suggest that predictive modeling could begin to play a larger role not only for data analysis, but also for data collection. We address the example of efficient wireless sensor networks, where inferential ecosystem models can be used to weigh the value of an observation against the cost of data collection. Transmission costs make observations ââ...
Efficient Iris Localization via Optimization Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Qi Wang
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Iris localization is one of the most important processes in iris recognition. Because of different kinds of noises in iris image, the localization result may be wrong. Besides this, localization process is time-consuming. To solve these problems, this paper develops an efficient iris localization algorithm via optimization model. Firstly, the localization problem is modeled by an optimization model. Then SIFT feature is selected to represent the characteristic information of iris outer boundary and eyelid for localization. And SDM (Supervised Descent Method algorithm is employed to solve the final points of outer boundary and eyelids. Finally, IRLS (Iterative Reweighted Least-Square is used to obtain the parameters of outer boundary and upper and lower eyelids. Experimental result indicates that the proposed algorithm is efficient and effective.
Iowa calibration of MEPDG performance prediction models.
2013-06-01
This study aims to improve the accuracy of AASHTO Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) pavement : performance predictions for Iowa pavement systems through local calibration of MEPDG prediction models. A total of 130 : representative p...
Modeling Dynamic Systems with Efficient Ensembles of Process-Based Models.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nikola Simidjievski
Full Text Available Ensembles are a well established machine learning paradigm, leading to accurate and robust models, predominantly applied to predictive modeling tasks. Ensemble models comprise a finite set of diverse predictive models whose combined output is expected to yield an improved predictive performance as compared to an individual model. In this paper, we propose a new method for learning ensembles of process-based models of dynamic systems. The process-based modeling paradigm employs domain-specific knowledge to automatically learn models of dynamic systems from time-series observational data. Previous work has shown that ensembles based on sampling observational data (i.e., bagging and boosting, significantly improve predictive performance of process-based models. However, this improvement comes at the cost of a substantial increase of the computational time needed for learning. To address this problem, the paper proposes a method that aims at efficiently learning ensembles of process-based models, while maintaining their accurate long-term predictive performance. This is achieved by constructing ensembles with sampling domain-specific knowledge instead of sampling data. We apply the proposed method to and evaluate its performance on a set of problems of automated predictive modeling in three lake ecosystems using a library of process-based knowledge for modeling population dynamics. The experimental results identify the optimal design decisions regarding the learning algorithm. The results also show that the proposed ensembles yield significantly more accurate predictions of population dynamics as compared to individual process-based models. Finally, while their predictive performance is comparable to the one of ensembles obtained with the state-of-the-art methods of bagging and boosting, they are substantially more efficient.
Model complexity control for hydrologic prediction
Schoups, G.; Van de Giesen, N.C.; Savenije, H.H.G.
2008-01-01
A common concern in hydrologic modeling is overparameterization of complex models given limited and noisy data. This leads to problems of parameter nonuniqueness and equifinality, which may negatively affect prediction uncertainties. A systematic way of controlling model complexity is therefore
Predicting efficiency of solar powered hydrogen generation using photovoltaic-electrolysis devices
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gibson, Thomas L.; Kelly, Nelson A. [General Motors Research and Development Center, Chemical Science and Material Systems Laboratory, Mail Code 480-106-269, 30500 Mound Road, Warren, MI 48090-9055 (United States)
2010-02-15
Hydrogen fuel for fuel cell vehicles can be produced by using solar electric energy from photovoltaic (PV) modules for the electrolysis of water without emitting carbon dioxide or requiring fossil fuels. In the past, this renewable means of hydrogen production has suffered from low efficiency (2-6%), which increased the area of the PV array required and therefore, the cost of generating hydrogen. A comprehensive mathematical model was developed that can predict the efficiency of a PV-electrolyzer combination based on operating parameters including voltage, current, temperature, and gas output pressure. This model has been used to design optimized PV-electrolyzer systems with maximum solar energy to hydrogen efficiency. In this research, the electrical efficiency of the PV-electrolysis system was increased by matching the maximum power output and voltage of the photovoltaics to the operating voltage of a proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzer, and optimizing the effects of electrolyzer operating current, and temperature. The operating temperature of the PV modules was also an important factor studied in this research to increase efficiency. The optimized PV-electrolysis system increased the hydrogen generation efficiency to 12.4% for a solar powered PV-PEM electrolyzer that could supply enough hydrogen to operate a fuel cell vehicle. (author)
Staying Power of Churn Prediction Models
Risselada, Hans; Verhoef, Peter C.; Bijmolt, Tammo H. A.
In this paper, we study the staying power of various churn prediction models. Staying power is defined as the predictive performance of a model in a number of periods after the estimation period. We examine two methods, logit models and classification trees, both with and without applying a bagging
Poisson Mixture Regression Models for Heart Disease Prediction
Erol, Hamza
2016-01-01
Early heart disease control can be achieved by high disease prediction and diagnosis efficiency. This paper focuses on the use of model based clustering techniques to predict and diagnose heart disease via Poisson mixture regression models. Analysis and application of Poisson mixture regression models is here addressed under two different classes: standard and concomitant variable mixture regression models. Results show that a two-component concomitant variable Poisson mixture regression model predicts heart disease better than both the standard Poisson mixture regression model and the ordinary general linear Poisson regression model due to its low Bayesian Information Criteria value. Furthermore, a Zero Inflated Poisson Mixture Regression model turned out to be the best model for heart prediction over all models as it both clusters individuals into high or low risk category and predicts rate to heart disease componentwise given clusters available. It is deduced that heart disease prediction can be effectively done by identifying the major risks componentwise using Poisson mixture regression model. PMID:27999611
Comparison of Prediction-Error-Modelling Criteria
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Jørgensen, Sten Bay
2007-01-01
Single and multi-step prediction-error-methods based on the maximum likelihood and least squares criteria are compared. The prediction-error methods studied are based on predictions using the Kalman filter and Kalman predictors for a linear discrete-time stochastic state space model, which is a r...
Lovvorn, J R
2007-11-29
For diving endotherms, modelling costs of locomotion as a function of prey dispersion requires estimates of the costs of diving to different depths. One approach is to estimate the physical costs of locomotion (Pmech) with biomechanical models and to convert those estimates to chemical energy needs by an aerobic efficiency (eta=Pmech/Vo2) based on oxygen consumption (Vo2) in captive animals. Variations in eta with temperature depend partly on thermal substitution, whereby heat from the inefficiency of exercising muscles or the heat increment of feeding (HIF) can substitute for thermogenesis. However, measurements of substitution have ranged from lack of detection to nearly complete use of exercise heat or HIF. This inconsistency may reflect (i) problems in methods of calculating substitution, (ii) confounding mechanisms of thermoregulatory control, or (iii) varying conditions that affect heat balance and allow substitution to be expressed. At present, understanding of how heat generation is regulated, and how heat is transported among tissues during exercise, digestion, thermal challenge and breath holding, is inadequate for predicting substitution and aerobic efficiencies without direct measurements for conditions of interest. Confirming that work rates during exercise are generally conserved, and identifying temperatures at those work rates below which shivering begins, may allow better prediction of aerobic efficiencies for ecological models.
Demonstration of two novel methods for predicting functional siRNA efficiency
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shi Tieliu
2006-05-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background siRNAs are small RNAs that serve as sequence determinants during the gene silencing process called RNA interference (RNAi. It is well know that siRNA efficiency is crucial in the RNAi pathway, and the siRNA efficiency for targeting different sites of a specific gene varies greatly. Therefore, there is high demand for reliable siRNAs prediction tools and for the design methods able to pick up high silencing potential siRNAs. Results In this paper, two systems have been established for the prediction of functional siRNAs: (1 a statistical model based on sequence information and (2 a machine learning model based on three features of siRNA sequences, namely binary description, thermodynamic profile and nucleotide composition. Both of the two methods show high performance on the two datasets we have constructed for training the model. Conclusion Both of the two methods studied in this paper emphasize the importance of sequence information for the prediction of functional siRNAs. The way of denoting a bio-sequence by binary system in mathematical language might be helpful in other analysis work associated with fixed-length bio-sequence.
A Computational Model for Predicting Gas Breakdown
Gill, Zachary
2017-10-01
Pulsed-inductive discharges are a common method of producing a plasma. They provide a mechanism for quickly and efficiently generating a large volume of plasma for rapid use and are seen in applications including propulsion, fusion power, and high-power lasers. However, some common designs see a delayed response time due to the plasma forming when the magnitude of the magnetic field in the thruster is at a minimum. New designs are difficult to evaluate due to the amount of time needed to construct a new geometry and the high monetary cost of changing the power generation circuit. To more quickly evaluate new designs and better understand the shortcomings of existing designs, a computational model is developed. This model uses a modified single-electron model as the basis for a Mathematica code to determine how the energy distribution in a system changes with regards to time and location. By analyzing this energy distribution, the approximate time and location of initial plasma breakdown can be predicted. The results from this code are then compared to existing data to show its validity and shortcomings. Missouri S&T APLab.
Calibration of PMIS pavement performance prediction models.
2012-02-01
Improve the accuracy of TxDOTs existing pavement performance prediction models through calibrating these models using actual field data obtained from the Pavement Management Information System (PMIS). : Ensure logical performance superiority patte...
Predictive Model Assessment for Count Data
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Czado, Claudia; Gneiting, Tilmann; Held, Leonhard
2007-01-01
.... In case studies, we critique count regression models for patent data, and assess the predictive performance of Bayesian age-period-cohort models for larynx cancer counts in Germany. Key words: Calibration...
Models for efficient integration of solar energy
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bacher, Peder
the available flexibility in the system. In the present thesis methods related to operation of solar energy systems and for optimal energy use in buildings are presented. Two approaches for forecasting of solar power based on numerical weather predictions (NWPs) are presented, they are applied to forecast...... the power output from PV and solar thermal collector systems. The first approach is based on a developed statistical clear-sky model, which is used for estimating the clear-sky output solely based on observations of the output. This enables local effects such as shading from trees to be taken into account....... The second approach to solar power forecasting is based on conditional parametric modelling. It is well suited for forecasting of solar thermal power, since is it can be make non-linear in the inputs. The approach is also extended to a probabilistic solar power forecasting model. The statistical clear...
Real-Time Optimization for Economic Model Predictive Control
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sokoler, Leo Emil; Edlund, Kristian; Frison, Gianluca
2012-01-01
In this paper, we develop an efficient homogeneous and self-dual interior-point method for the linear programs arising in economic model predictive control. To exploit structure in the optimization problems, the algorithm employs a highly specialized Riccati iteration procedure. Simulations show...
Predictive models for arteriovenous fistula maturation.
Al Shakarchi, Julien; McGrogan, Damian; Van der Veer, Sabine; Sperrin, Matthew; Inston, Nicholas
2016-05-07
Haemodialysis (HD) is a lifeline therapy for patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). A critical factor in the survival of renal dialysis patients is the surgical creation of vascular access, and international guidelines recommend arteriovenous fistulas (AVF) as the gold standard of vascular access for haemodialysis. Despite this, AVFs have been associated with high failure rates. Although risk factors for AVF failure have been identified, their utility for predicting AVF failure through predictive models remains unclear. The objectives of this review are to systematically and critically assess the methodology and reporting of studies developing prognostic predictive models for AVF outcomes and assess them for suitability in clinical practice. Electronic databases were searched for studies reporting prognostic predictive models for AVF outcomes. Dual review was conducted to identify studies that reported on the development or validation of a model constructed to predict AVF outcome following creation. Data were extracted on study characteristics, risk predictors, statistical methodology, model type, as well as validation process. We included four different studies reporting five different predictive models. Parameters identified that were common to all scoring system were age and cardiovascular disease. This review has found a small number of predictive models in vascular access. The disparity between each study limits the development of a unified predictive model.
Model Predictive Control Fundamentals | Orukpe | Nigerian Journal ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Model Predictive Control (MPC) has developed considerably over the last two decades, both within the research control community and in industries. MPC strategy involves the optimization of a performance index with respect to some future control sequence, using predictions of the output signal based on a process model, ...
Unreachable Setpoints in Model Predictive Control
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rawlings, James B.; Bonné, Dennis; Jørgensen, John Bagterp
2008-01-01
In this work, a new model predictive controller is developed that handles unreachable setpoints better than traditional model predictive control methods. The new controller induces an interesting fast/slow asymmetry in the tracking response of the system. Nominal asymptotic stability of the optim...
Wessler, Benjamin S; Lai Yh, Lana; Kramer, Whitney; Cangelosi, Michael; Raman, Gowri; Lutz, Jennifer S; Kent, David M
2015-07-01
Clinical prediction models (CPMs) estimate the probability of clinical outcomes and hold the potential to improve decision making and individualize care. For patients with cardiovascular disease, there are numerous CPMs available although the extent of this literature is not well described. We conducted a systematic review for articles containing CPMs for cardiovascular disease published between January 1990 and May 2012. Cardiovascular disease includes coronary heart disease, heart failure, arrhythmias, stroke, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral vascular disease. We created a novel database and characterized CPMs based on the stage of development, population under study, performance, covariates, and predicted outcomes. There are 796 models included in this database. The number of CPMs published each year is increasing steadily over time. Seven hundred seventeen (90%) are de novo CPMs, 21 (3%) are CPM recalibrations, and 58 (7%) are CPM adaptations. This database contains CPMs for 31 index conditions, including 215 CPMs for patients with coronary artery disease, 168 CPMs for population samples, and 79 models for patients with heart failure. There are 77 distinct index/outcome pairings. Of the de novo models in this database, 450 (63%) report a c-statistic and 259 (36%) report some information on calibration. There is an abundance of CPMs available for a wide assortment of cardiovascular disease conditions, with substantial redundancy in the literature. The comparative performance of these models, the consistency of effects and risk estimates across models and the actual and potential clinical impact of this body of literature is poorly understood. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.
Hybrid approaches to physiologic modeling and prediction
Olengü, Nicholas O.; Reifman, Jaques
2005-05-01
This paper explores how the accuracy of a first-principles physiological model can be enhanced by integrating data-driven, "black-box" models with the original model to form a "hybrid" model system. Both linear (autoregressive) and nonlinear (neural network) data-driven techniques are separately combined with a first-principles model to predict human body core temperature. Rectal core temperature data from nine volunteers, subject to four 30/10-minute cycles of moderate exercise/rest regimen in both CONTROL and HUMID environmental conditions, are used to develop and test the approach. The results show significant improvements in prediction accuracy, with average improvements of up to 30% for prediction horizons of 20 minutes. The models developed from one subject's data are also used in the prediction of another subject's core temperature. Initial results for this approach for a 20-minute horizon show no significant improvement over the first-principles model by itself.
Satellite-based terrestrial production efficiency modeling
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Obersteiner Michael
2009-09-01
Full Text Available Abstract Production efficiency models (PEMs are based on the theory of light use efficiency (LUE which states that a relatively constant relationship exists between photosynthetic carbon uptake and radiation receipt at the canopy level. Challenges remain however in the application of the PEM methodology to global net primary productivity (NPP monitoring. The objectives of this review are as follows: 1 to describe the general functioning of six PEMs (CASA; GLO-PEM; TURC; C-Fix; MOD17; and BEAMS identified in the literature; 2 to review each model to determine potential improvements to the general PEM methodology; 3 to review the related literature on satellite-based gross primary productivity (GPP and NPP modeling for additional possibilities for improvement; and 4 based on this review, propose items for coordinated research. This review noted a number of possibilities for improvement to the general PEM architecture - ranging from LUE to meteorological and satellite-based inputs. Current PEMs tend to treat the globe similarly in terms of physiological and meteorological factors, often ignoring unique regional aspects. Each of the existing PEMs has developed unique methods to estimate NPP and the combination of the most successful of these could lead to improvements. It may be beneficial to develop regional PEMs that can be combined under a global framework. The results of this review suggest the creation of a hybrid PEM could bring about a significant enhancement to the PEM methodology and thus terrestrial carbon flux modeling. Key items topping the PEM research agenda identified in this review include the following: LUE should not be assumed constant, but should vary by plant functional type (PFT or photosynthetic pathway; evidence is mounting that PEMs should consider incorporating diffuse radiation; continue to pursue relationships between satellite-derived variables and LUE, GPP and autotrophic respiration (Ra; there is an urgent need for
Satellite-based terrestrial production efficiency modeling.
McCallum, Ian; Wagner, Wolfgang; Schmullius, Christiane; Shvidenko, Anatoly; Obersteiner, Michael; Fritz, Steffen; Nilsson, Sten
2009-09-18
Production efficiency models (PEMs) are based on the theory of light use efficiency (LUE) which states that a relatively constant relationship exists between photosynthetic carbon uptake and radiation receipt at the canopy level. Challenges remain however in the application of the PEM methodology to global net primary productivity (NPP) monitoring. The objectives of this review are as follows: 1) to describe the general functioning of six PEMs (CASA; GLO-PEM; TURC; C-Fix; MOD17; and BEAMS) identified in the literature; 2) to review each model to determine potential improvements to the general PEM methodology; 3) to review the related literature on satellite-based gross primary productivity (GPP) and NPP modeling for additional possibilities for improvement; and 4) based on this review, propose items for coordinated research.This review noted a number of possibilities for improvement to the general PEM architecture - ranging from LUE to meteorological and satellite-based inputs. Current PEMs tend to treat the globe similarly in terms of physiological and meteorological factors, often ignoring unique regional aspects. Each of the existing PEMs has developed unique methods to estimate NPP and the combination of the most successful of these could lead to improvements. It may be beneficial to develop regional PEMs that can be combined under a global framework. The results of this review suggest the creation of a hybrid PEM could bring about a significant enhancement to the PEM methodology and thus terrestrial carbon flux modeling.Key items topping the PEM research agenda identified in this review include the following: LUE should not be assumed constant, but should vary by plant functional type (PFT) or photosynthetic pathway; evidence is mounting that PEMs should consider incorporating diffuse radiation; continue to pursue relationships between satellite-derived variables and LUE, GPP and autotrophic respiration (Ra); there is an urgent need for satellite-based biomass
Evaluating the Predictive Value of Growth Prediction Models
Murphy, Daniel L.; Gaertner, Matthew N.
2014-01-01
This study evaluates four growth prediction models--projection, student growth percentile, trajectory, and transition table--commonly used to forecast (and give schools credit for) middle school students' future proficiency. Analyses focused on vertically scaled summative mathematics assessments, and two performance standards conditions (high…
Model predictive control classical, robust and stochastic
Kouvaritakis, Basil
2016-01-01
For the first time, a textbook that brings together classical predictive control with treatment of up-to-date robust and stochastic techniques. Model Predictive Control describes the development of tractable algorithms for uncertain, stochastic, constrained systems. The starting point is classical predictive control and the appropriate formulation of performance objectives and constraints to provide guarantees of closed-loop stability and performance. Moving on to robust predictive control, the text explains how similar guarantees may be obtained for cases in which the model describing the system dynamics is subject to additive disturbances and parametric uncertainties. Open- and closed-loop optimization are considered and the state of the art in computationally tractable methods based on uncertainty tubes presented for systems with additive model uncertainty. Finally, the tube framework is also applied to model predictive control problems involving hard or probabilistic constraints for the cases of multiplic...
Model Predictive Control of a Wave Energy Converter
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Palle; Pedersen, Tom Søndergård; Nielsen, Kirsten Mølgaard
2015-01-01
In this paper reactive control and Model Predictive Control (MPC) for a Wave Energy Converter (WEC) are compared. The analysis is based on a WEC from Wave Star A/S designed as a point absorber. The model predictive controller uses wave models based on the dominating sea states combined with a model......'s are designed for each sea state using a model assuming a linear loss torque. The mean power results from two controllers are compared using both loss models. Simulation results show that MPC can outperform a reactive controller if a good model of the conversion losses is available....... connecting undisturbed wave sequences to sequences of torque. Losses in the conversion from mechanical to electrical power are taken into account in two ways. Conventional reactive controllers are tuned for each sea state with the assumption that the converter has the same efficiency back and forth. MPC...
Two-phased DEA-MLA approach for predicting efficiency of NBA players
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Radovanović Sandro
2014-01-01
Full Text Available In sports, a calculation of efficiency is considered to be one of the most challenging tasks. In this paper, DEA is used to evaluate an efficiency of the NBA players, based on multiple inputs and multiple outputs. The efficiency is evaluated for 26 NBA players at the guard position based on existing data. However, if we want to generate the efficiency for a new player, we would have to re-conduct the DEA analysis. Therefore, to predict the efficiency of a new player, machine learning algorithms are applied. The DEA results are incorporated as an input for the learning algorithms, defining thereby an efficiency frontier function form with high reliability. In this paper, linear regression, neural network, and support vector machines are used to predict an efficiency frontier. The results have shown that neural networks can predict the efficiency with an error less than 1%, and the linear regression with an error less than 2%.
Prediction of strontium bromide laser efficiency using cluster and decision tree analysis
Iliev, Iliycho; Gocheva-Ilieva, Snezhana; Kulin, Chavdar
2018-01-01
Subject of investigation is a new high-powered strontium bromide (SrBr2) vapor laser emitting in multiline region of wavelengths. The laser is an alternative to the atom strontium lasers and electron free lasers, especially at the line 6.45 μm which line is used in surgery for medical processing of biological tissues and bones with minimal damage. In this paper the experimental data from measurements of operational and output characteristics of the laser are statistically processed by means of cluster analysis and tree-based regression techniques. The aim is to extract the more important relationships and dependences from the available data which influence the increase of the overall laser efficiency. There are constructed and analyzed a set of cluster models. It is shown by using different cluster methods that the seven investigated operational characteristics (laser tube diameter, length, supplied electrical power, and others) and laser efficiency are combined in 2 clusters. By the built regression tree models using Classification and Regression Trees (CART) technique there are obtained dependences to predict the values of efficiency, and especially the maximum efficiency with over 95% accuracy.
Prediction of strontium bromide laser efficiency using cluster and decision tree analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Iliev Iliycho
2018-01-01
Full Text Available Subject of investigation is a new high-powered strontium bromide (SrBr2 vapor laser emitting in multiline region of wavelengths. The laser is an alternative to the atom strontium lasers and electron free lasers, especially at the line 6.45 μm which line is used in surgery for medical processing of biological tissues and bones with minimal damage. In this paper the experimental data from measurements of operational and output characteristics of the laser are statistically processed by means of cluster analysis and tree-based regression techniques. The aim is to extract the more important relationships and dependences from the available data which influence the increase of the overall laser efficiency. There are constructed and analyzed a set of cluster models. It is shown by using different cluster methods that the seven investigated operational characteristics (laser tube diameter, length, supplied electrical power, and others and laser efficiency are combined in 2 clusters. By the built regression tree models using Classification and Regression Trees (CART technique there are obtained dependences to predict the values of efficiency, and especially the maximum efficiency with over 95% accuracy.
A Global Model for Bankruptcy Prediction.
Alaminos, David; Del Castillo, Agustín; Fernández, Manuel Ángel
2016-01-01
The recent world financial crisis has increased the number of bankruptcies in numerous countries and has resulted in a new area of research which responds to the need to predict this phenomenon, not only at the level of individual countries, but also at a global level, offering explanations of the common characteristics shared by the affected companies. Nevertheless, few studies focus on the prediction of bankruptcies globally. In order to compensate for this lack of empirical literature, this study has used a methodological framework of logistic regression to construct predictive bankruptcy models for Asia, Europe and America, and other global models for the whole world. The objective is to construct a global model with a high capacity for predicting bankruptcy in any region of the world. The results obtained have allowed us to confirm the superiority of the global model in comparison to regional models over periods of up to three years prior to bankruptcy.
Efficient 3D scene modeling and mosaicing
Nicosevici, Tudor
2013-01-01
This book proposes a complete pipeline for monocular (single camera) based 3D mapping of terrestrial and underwater environments. The aim is to provide a solution to large-scale scene modeling that is both accurate and efficient. To this end, we have developed a novel Structure from Motion algorithm that increases mapping accuracy by registering camera views directly with the maps. The camera registration uses a dual approach that adapts to the type of environment being mapped. In order to further increase the accuracy of the resulting maps, a new method is presented, allowing detection of images corresponding to the same scene region (crossovers). Crossovers then used in conjunction with global alignment methods in order to highly reduce estimation errors, especially when mapping large areas. Our method is based on Visual Bag of Words paradigm (BoW), offering a more efficient and simpler solution by eliminating the training stage, generally required by state of the art BoW algorithms. Also, towards dev...
Fingerprint verification prediction model in hand dermatitis.
Lee, Chew K; Chang, Choong C; Johor, Asmah; Othman, Puwira; Baba, Roshidah
2015-07-01
Hand dermatitis associated fingerprint changes is a significant problem and affects fingerprint verification processes. This study was done to develop a clinically useful prediction model for fingerprint verification in patients with hand dermatitis. A case-control study involving 100 patients with hand dermatitis. All patients verified their thumbprints against their identity card. Registered fingerprints were randomized into a model derivation and model validation group. Predictive model was derived using multiple logistic regression. Validation was done using the goodness-of-fit test. The fingerprint verification prediction model consists of a major criterion (fingerprint dystrophy area of ≥ 25%) and two minor criteria (long horizontal lines and long vertical lines). The presence of the major criterion predicts it will almost always fail verification, while presence of both minor criteria and presence of one minor criterion predict high and low risk of fingerprint verification failure, respectively. When none of the criteria are met, the fingerprint almost always passes the verification. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.937, and the goodness-of-fit test showed agreement between the observed and expected number (P = 0.26). The derived fingerprint verification failure prediction model is validated and highly discriminatory in predicting risk of fingerprint verification in patients with hand dermatitis. © 2014 The International Society of Dermatology.
Massive Predictive Modeling using Oracle R Enterprise
CERN. Geneva
2014-01-01
R is fast becoming the lingua franca for analyzing data via statistics, visualization, and predictive analytics. For enterprise-scale data, R users have three main concerns: scalability, performance, and production deployment. Oracle's R-based technologies - Oracle R Distribution, Oracle R Enterprise, Oracle R Connector for Hadoop, and the R package ROracle - address these concerns. In this talk, we introduce Oracle's R technologies, highlighting how each enables R users to achieve scalability and performance while making production deployment of R results a natural outcome of the data analyst/scientist efforts. The focus then turns to Oracle R Enterprise with code examples using the transparency layer and embedded R execution, targeting massive predictive modeling. One goal behind massive predictive modeling is to build models per entity, such as customers, zip codes, simulations, in an effort to understand behavior and tailor predictions at the entity level. Predictions...
Predictive Model of Systemic Toxicity (SOT)
In an effort to ensure chemical safety in light of regulatory advances away from reliance on animal testing, USEPA and L’Oréal have collaborated to develop a quantitative systemic toxicity prediction model. Prediction of human systemic toxicity has proved difficult and remains a ...
Testicular Cancer Risk Prediction Models
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of testicular cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
Pancreatic Cancer Risk Prediction Models
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing pancreatic cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Models
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing colorectal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
Prostate Cancer Risk Prediction Models
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing prostate cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
Bladder Cancer Risk Prediction Models
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing bladder cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
Esophageal Cancer Risk Prediction Models
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing esophageal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
Cervical Cancer Risk Prediction Models
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Models
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing breast cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Models
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing lung cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
Liver Cancer Risk Prediction Models
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing liver cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction Models
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing ovarian cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
Efficient first-principles prediction of solid stability: Towards chemical accuracy
Zhang, Yubo; Kitchaev, Daniil A.; Yang, Julia; Chen, Tina; Dacek, Stephen T.; Sarmiento-Pérez, Rafael A.; Marques, Maguel A. L.; Peng, Haowei; Ceder, Gerbrand; Perdew, John P.; Sun, Jianwei
2018-03-01
The question of material stability is of fundamental importance to any analysis of system properties in condensed matter physics and materials science. The ability to evaluate chemical stability, i.e., whether a stoichiometry will persist in some chemical environment, and structure selection, i.e. what crystal structure a stoichiometry will adopt, is critical to the prediction of materials synthesis, reactivity and properties. Here, we demonstrate that density functional theory, with the recently developed strongly constrained and appropriately normed (SCAN) functional, has advanced to a point where both facets of the stability problem can be reliably and efficiently predicted for main group compounds, while transition metal compounds are improved but remain a challenge. SCAN therefore offers a robust model for a significant portion of the periodic table, presenting an opportunity for the development of novel materials and the study of fine phase transformations even in largely unexplored systems with little to no experimental data.
Posterior Predictive Model Checking in Bayesian Networks
Crawford, Aaron
2014-01-01
This simulation study compared the utility of various discrepancy measures within a posterior predictive model checking (PPMC) framework for detecting different types of data-model misfit in multidimensional Bayesian network (BN) models. The investigated conditions were motivated by an applied research program utilizing an operational complex…
Efficient Data-Driven Rule for Obtaining an Optimal Predictive ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
This paper proposes a rule for optimizing a predictive discriminant function (PDF) in discriminant analysis (DA). In this study, we carried out a sequential-stepwise analysis on the predictor variables and a percentage-N-fold cross-validation on the data set obtained from students' academic records in a university system.
Predicting and Modeling RNA Architecture
Westhof, Eric; Masquida, Benoît; Jossinet, Fabrice
2011-01-01
SUMMARY A general approach for modeling the architecture of large and structured RNA molecules is described. The method exploits the modularity and the hierarchical folding of RNA architecture that is viewed as the assembly of preformed double-stranded helices defined by Watson-Crick base pairs and RNA modules maintained by non-Watson-Crick base pairs. Despite the extensive molecular neutrality observed in RNA structures, specificity in RNA folding is achieved through global constraints like lengths of helices, coaxiality of helical stacks, and structures adopted at the junctions of helices. The Assemble integrated suite of computer tools allows for sequence and structure analysis as well as interactive modeling by homology or ab initio assembly with possibilities for fitting within electronic density maps. The local key role of non-Watson-Crick pairs guides RNA architecture formation and offers metrics for assessing the accuracy of three-dimensional models in a more useful way than usual root mean square deviation (RMSD) values. PMID:20504963
Multiple Steps Prediction with Nonlinear ARX Models
Zhang, Qinghua; Ljung, Lennart
2007-01-01
NLARX (NonLinear AutoRegressive with eXogenous inputs) models are frequently used in black-box nonlinear system identication. Though it is easy to make one step ahead prediction with such models, multiple steps prediction is far from trivial. The main difficulty is that in general there is no easy way to compute the mathematical expectation of an output conditioned by past measurements. An optimal solution would require intensive numerical computations related to nonlinear filltering. The pur...
Predictability of extreme values in geophysical models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. E. Sterk
2012-09-01
Full Text Available Extreme value theory in deterministic systems is concerned with unlikely large (or small values of an observable evaluated along evolutions of the system. In this paper we study the finite-time predictability of extreme values, such as convection, energy, and wind speeds, in three geophysical models. We study whether finite-time Lyapunov exponents are larger or smaller for initial conditions leading to extremes. General statements on whether extreme values are better or less predictable are not possible: the predictability of extreme values depends on the observable, the attractor of the system, and the prediction lead time.
Model complexity control for hydrologic prediction
Schoups, G.; van de Giesen, N. C.; Savenije, H. H. G.
2008-12-01
A common concern in hydrologic modeling is overparameterization of complex models given limited and noisy data. This leads to problems of parameter nonuniqueness and equifinality, which may negatively affect prediction uncertainties. A systematic way of controlling model complexity is therefore needed. We compare three model complexity control methods for hydrologic prediction, namely, cross validation (CV), Akaike's information criterion (AIC), and structural risk minimization (SRM). Results show that simulation of water flow using non-physically-based models (polynomials in this case) leads to increasingly better calibration fits as the model complexity (polynomial order) increases. However, prediction uncertainty worsens for complex non-physically-based models because of overfitting of noisy data. Incorporation of physically based constraints into the model (e.g., storage-discharge relationship) effectively bounds prediction uncertainty, even as the number of parameters increases. The conclusion is that overparameterization and equifinality do not lead to a continued increase in prediction uncertainty, as long as models are constrained by such physical principles. Complexity control of hydrologic models reduces parameter equifinality and identifies the simplest model that adequately explains the data, thereby providing a means of hydrologic generalization and classification. SRM is a promising technique for this purpose, as it (1) provides analytic upper bounds on prediction uncertainty, hence avoiding the computational burden of CV, and (2) extends the applicability of classic methods such as AIC to finite data. The main hurdle in applying SRM is the need for an a priori estimation of the complexity of the hydrologic model, as measured by its Vapnik-Chernovenkis (VC) dimension. Further research is needed in this area.
Quantifying predictive accuracy in survival models.
Lirette, Seth T; Aban, Inmaculada
2017-12-01
For time-to-event outcomes in medical research, survival models are the most appropriate to use. Unlike logistic regression models, quantifying the predictive accuracy of these models is not a trivial task. We present the classes of concordance (C) statistics and R 2 statistics often used to assess the predictive ability of these models. The discussion focuses on Harrell's C, Kent and O'Quigley's R 2 , and Royston and Sauerbrei's R 2 . We present similarities and differences between the statistics, discuss the software options from the most widely used statistical analysis packages, and give a practical example using the Worcester Heart Attack Study dataset.
Predictive power of nuclear-mass models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yu. A. Litvinov
2013-12-01
Full Text Available Ten different theoretical models are tested for their predictive power in the description of nuclear masses. Two sets of experimental masses are used for the test: the older set of 2003 and the newer one of 2011. The predictive power is studied in two regions of nuclei: the global region (Z, N ≥ 8 and the heavy-nuclei region (Z ≥ 82, N ≥ 126. No clear correlation is found between the predictive power of a model and the accuracy of its description of the masses.
Return Predictability, Model Uncertainty, and Robust Investment
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lukas, Manuel
Stock return predictability is subject to great uncertainty. In this paper we use the model confidence set approach to quantify uncertainty about expected utility from investment, accounting for potential return predictability. For monthly US data and six representative return prediction models, we...... find that confidence sets are very wide, change significantly with the predictor variables, and frequently include expected utilities for which the investor prefers not to invest. The latter motivates a robust investment strategy maximizing the minimal element of the confidence set. The robust investor...... allocates a much lower share of wealth to stocks compared to a standard investor....
Spatial Economics Model Predicting Transport Volume
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lu Bo
2016-10-01
Full Text Available It is extremely important to predict the logistics requirements in a scientific and rational way. However, in recent years, the improvement effect on the prediction method is not very significant and the traditional statistical prediction method has the defects of low precision and poor interpretation of the prediction model, which cannot only guarantee the generalization ability of the prediction model theoretically, but also cannot explain the models effectively. Therefore, in combination with the theories of the spatial economics, industrial economics, and neo-classical economics, taking city of Zhuanghe as the research object, the study identifies the leading industry that can produce a large number of cargoes, and further predicts the static logistics generation of the Zhuanghe and hinterlands. By integrating various factors that can affect the regional logistics requirements, this study established a logistics requirements potential model from the aspect of spatial economic principles, and expanded the way of logistics requirements prediction from the single statistical principles to an new area of special and regional economics.
Accuracy assessment of landslide prediction models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Othman, A N; Mohd, W M N W; Noraini, S
2014-01-01
The increasing population and expansion of settlements over hilly areas has greatly increased the impact of natural disasters such as landslide. Therefore, it is important to developed models which could accurately predict landslide hazard zones. Over the years, various techniques and models have been developed to predict landslide hazard zones. The aim of this paper is to access the accuracy of landslide prediction models developed by the authors. The methodology involved the selection of study area, data acquisition, data processing and model development and also data analysis. The development of these models are based on nine different landslide inducing parameters i.e. slope, land use, lithology, soil properties, geomorphology, flow accumulation, aspect, proximity to river and proximity to road. Rank sum, rating, pairwise comparison and AHP techniques are used to determine the weights for each of the parameters used. Four (4) different models which consider different parameter combinations are developed by the authors. Results obtained are compared to landslide history and accuracies for Model 1, Model 2, Model 3 and Model 4 are 66.7, 66.7%, 60% and 22.9% respectively. From the results, rank sum, rating and pairwise comparison can be useful techniques to predict landslide hazard zones
Model calibration for building energy efficiency simulation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mustafaraj, Giorgio; Marini, Dashamir; Costa, Andrea; Keane, Marcus
2014-01-01
Highlights: • Developing a 3D model relating to building architecture, occupancy and HVAC operation. • Two calibration stages developed, final model providing accurate results. • Using an onsite weather station for generating the weather data file in EnergyPlus. • Predicting thermal behaviour of underfloor heating, heat pump and natural ventilation. • Monthly energy saving opportunities related to heat pump of 20–27% was identified. - Abstract: This research work deals with an Environmental Research Institute (ERI) building where an underfloor heating system and natural ventilation are the main systems used to maintain comfort condition throughout 80% of the building areas. Firstly, this work involved developing a 3D model relating to building architecture, occupancy and HVAC operation. Secondly, the calibration methodology, which consists of two levels, was then applied in order to insure accuracy and reduce the likelihood of errors. To further improve the accuracy of calibration a historical weather data file related to year 2011, was created from the on-site local weather station of ERI building. After applying the second level of calibration process, the values of Mean bias Error (MBE) and Cumulative Variation of Root Mean Squared Error (CV(RMSE)) on hourly based analysis for heat pump electricity consumption varied within the following ranges: (MBE) hourly from −5.6% to 7.5% and CV(RMSE) hourly from 7.3% to 25.1%. Finally, the building was simulated with EnergyPlus to identify further possibilities of energy savings supplied by a water to water heat pump to underfloor heating system. It found that electricity consumption savings from the heat pump can vary between 20% and 27% on monthly bases
Predictive validation of an influenza spread model.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ayaz Hyder
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998-1999. Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type. Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. CONCLUSIONS: Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve
Predictive Validation of an Influenza Spread Model
Hyder, Ayaz; Buckeridge, David L.; Leung, Brian
2013-01-01
Background Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. Methods and Findings We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998–1999). Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type). Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. Conclusions Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers) with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve their predictive
Intra prediction based on Markov process modeling of images.
Kamisli, Fatih
2013-10-01
In recent video coding standards, intraprediction of a block of pixels is performed by copying neighbor pixels of the block along an angular direction inside the block. Each block pixel is predicted from only one or few directionally aligned neighbor pixels of the block. Although this is a computationally efficient approach, it ignores potentially useful correlation of other neighbor pixels of the block. To use this correlation, a general linear prediction approach is proposed, where each block pixel is predicted using a weighted sum of all neighbor pixels of the block. The disadvantage of this approach is the increased complexity because of the large number of weights. In this paper, we propose an alternative approach to intraprediction, where we model image pixels with a Markov process. The Markov process model accounts for the ignored correlation in standard intraprediction methods, but uses few neighbor pixels and enables a computationally efficient recursive prediction algorithm. Compared with the general linear prediction approach that has a large number of independent weights, the Markov process modeling approach uses a much smaller number of independent parameters and thus offers significantly reduced memory or computation requirements, while achieving similar coding gains with offline computed parameters.
A Phenomenological Model of Star Formation Efficiency in Dark Matter Halos
Finnegan, Daniel; Alsheshakly, Ghadeer; Moustakas, John
2018-01-01
The efficiency of star formation in massive dark matter halos is extraordinarily low, less than 10% in >10^13 Msun sized halos. Although many physical processes have been proposed to explain this low efficiency, such as feedback from supermassive black halos and massive stars, this question remains one of the most important outstanding problems in galaxy evolution. To explore this problem, we build a simple phenomenological model to predict the variations in gas fraction and star formation efficiency as a function of halo mass. We compare our model predictions to central galaxy stellar masses and halo masses drawn from the literature, and discuss plans for our future work.
Energy Efficiency Model for Induction Furnace
Dey, Asit Kr
2018-01-01
In this paper, a system of a solar induction furnace unit was design to find out a new solution for the existing AC power consuming heating process through Supervisory control and data acquisition system. This unit can be connected directly to the DC system without any internal conversion inside the device. The performance of the new system solution is compared with the existing one in terms of power consumption and losses. This work also investigated energy save, system improvement, process control model in a foundry induction furnace heating framework corresponding to PV solar power supply. The results are analysed for long run in terms of saving energy and integrated process system. The data acquisition system base solar foundry plant is an extremely multifaceted system that can be run over an almost innumerable range of operating conditions, each characterized by specific energy consumption. Determining ideal operating conditions is a key challenge that requires the involvement of the latest automation technologies, each one contributing to allow not only the acquisition, processing, storage, retrieval and visualization of data, but also the implementation of automatic control strategies that can expand the achievement envelope in terms of melting process, safety and energy efficiency.
A model for efficient management of electrical assets
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Alonso Guerreiro, A.
2008-01-01
At the same time that energy demand grows faster than the investments in electrical installations, the older capacity is reaching the end of its useful life. The need of running all those capacity without interruptions and an efficient maintenance of its assets, are the two current key points for power generation, transmission and distribution systems. This paper tries to show the reader a model of management which makes possible an effective management of assets with a strict control cost, and which includes those key points, centred at predictive techniques, involving all the departments of the organization and which goes further on considering the maintenance like a simple reparation or substitution of broken down units. Therefore, it becomes precise a model with three basic lines: supply guarantee, quality service and competitively, in order to allow the companies to reach the current demands which characterize the power supply. (Author) 5 refs
Posterior predictive checking of multiple imputation models.
Nguyen, Cattram D; Lee, Katherine J; Carlin, John B
2015-07-01
Multiple imputation is gaining popularity as a strategy for handling missing data, but there is a scarcity of tools for checking imputation models, a critical step in model fitting. Posterior predictive checking (PPC) has been recommended as an imputation diagnostic. PPC involves simulating "replicated" data from the posterior predictive distribution of the model under scrutiny. Model fit is assessed by examining whether the analysis from the observed data appears typical of results obtained from the replicates produced by the model. A proposed diagnostic measure is the posterior predictive "p-value", an extreme value of which (i.e., a value close to 0 or 1) suggests a misfit between the model and the data. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of the posterior predictive p-value as an imputation diagnostic. Using simulation methods, we deliberately misspecified imputation models to determine whether posterior predictive p-values were effective in identifying these problems. When estimating the regression parameter of interest, we found that more extreme p-values were associated with poorer imputation model performance, although the results highlighted that traditional thresholds for classical p-values do not apply in this context. A shortcoming of the PPC method was its reduced ability to detect misspecified models with increasing amounts of missing data. Despite the limitations of posterior predictive p-values, they appear to have a valuable place in the imputer's toolkit. In addition to automated checking using p-values, we recommend imputers perform graphical checks and examine other summaries of the test quantity distribution. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.
4K Video Traffic Prediction using Seasonal Autoregressive Modeling
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
D. R. Marković
2017-06-01
Full Text Available From the perspective of average viewer, high definition video streams such as HD (High Definition and UHD (Ultra HD are increasing their internet presence year over year. This is not surprising, having in mind expansion of HD streaming services, such as YouTube, Netflix etc. Therefore, high definition video streams are starting to challenge network resource allocation with their bandwidth requirements and statistical characteristics. Need for analysis and modeling of this demanding video traffic has essential importance for better quality of service and experience support. In this paper we use an easy-to-apply statistical model for prediction of 4K video traffic. Namely, seasonal autoregressive modeling is applied in prediction of 4K video traffic, encoded with HEVC (High Efficiency Video Coding. Analysis and modeling were performed within R programming environment using over 17.000 high definition video frames. It is shown that the proposed methodology provides good accuracy in high definition video traffic modeling.
Predicting Protein Secondary Structure with Markov Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fischer, Paul; Larsen, Simon; Thomsen, Claus
2004-01-01
we are considering here, is to predict the secondary structure from the primary one. To this end we train a Markov model on training data and then use it to classify parts of unknown protein sequences as sheets, helices or coils. We show how to exploit the directional information contained...... in the Markov model for this task. Classifications that are purely based on statistical models might not always be biologically meaningful. We present combinatorial methods to incorporate biological background knowledge to enhance the prediction performance....
Energy based prediction models for building acoustics
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Brunskog, Jonas
2012-01-01
In order to reach robust and simplified yet accurate prediction models, energy based principle are commonly used in many fields of acoustics, especially in building acoustics. This includes simple energy flow models, the framework of statistical energy analysis (SEA) as well as more elaborated...... principles as, e.g., wave intensity analysis (WIA). The European standards for building acoustic predictions, the EN 12354 series, are based on energy flow and SEA principles. In the present paper, different energy based prediction models are discussed and critically reviewed. Special attention is placed...... on underlying basic assumptions, such as diffuse fields, high modal overlap, resonant field being dominant, etc., and the consequences of these in terms of limitations in the theory and in the practical use of the models....
Comparative Study of Bancruptcy Prediction Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Isye Arieshanti
2013-09-01
Full Text Available Early indication of bancruptcy is important for a company. If companies aware of potency of their bancruptcy, they can take a preventive action to anticipate the bancruptcy. In order to detect the potency of a bancruptcy, a company can utilize a a model of bancruptcy prediction. The prediction model can be built using a machine learning methods. However, the choice of machine learning methods should be performed carefully. Because the suitability of a model depends on the problem specifically. Therefore, in this paper we perform a comparative study of several machine leaning methods for bancruptcy prediction. According to the comparative study, the performance of several models that based on machine learning methods (k-NN, fuzzy k-NN, SVM, Bagging Nearest Neighbour SVM, Multilayer Perceptron(MLP, Hybrid of MLP + Multiple Linear Regression, it can be showed that fuzzy k-NN method achieve the best performance with accuracy 77.5%
Nanotoxicity modelling and removal efficiencies of ZnONP.
Fikirdeşici Ergen, Şeyda; Üçüncü Tunca, Esra
2018-01-02
In this paper the aim is to investigate the toxic effect of zinc oxide nanoparticles (ZnONPs) and is to analyze the removal of ZnONP in aqueous medium by the consortium consisted of Daphnia magna and Lemna minor. Three separate test groups are formed: L. minor ([Formula: see text]), D. magna ([Formula: see text]), and L. minor + D. magna ([Formula: see text]) and all these test groups are exposed to three different nanoparticle concentrations ([Formula: see text]). Time-dependent, concentration-dependent, and group-dependent removal efficiencies are statistically compared by non-parametric Mann-Whitney U test and statistically significant differences are observed. The optimum removal values are observed at the highest concentration [Formula: see text] for [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text] for [Formula: see text]and [Formula: see text] for [Formula: see text] and realized at [Formula: see text] for all test groups [Formula: see text]. There is no statistically significant differences in removal at low concentrations [Formula: see text] in terms of groups but [Formula: see text] test groups are more efficient than [Formula: see text] test groups in removal of ZnONP, at [Formula: see text] concentration. Regression analysis is also performed for all prediction models. Different models are tested and it is seen that cubic models show the highest predicted values (R 2 ). In toxicity models, R 2 values are obtained at (0.892, 0.997) interval. A simple solution-phase method is used to synthesize ZnO nanoparticles. Dynamic Light Scattering and X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) are used to detect the particle size of synthesized ZnO nanoparticles.
SHMF: Interest Prediction Model with Social Hub Matrix Factorization
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chaoyuan Cui
2017-01-01
Full Text Available With the development of social networks, microblog has become the major social communication tool. There is a lot of valuable information such as personal preference, public opinion, and marketing in microblog. Consequently, research on user interest prediction in microblog has a positive practical significance. In fact, how to extract information associated with user interest orientation from the constantly updated blog posts is not so easy. Existing prediction approaches based on probabilistic factor analysis use blog posts published by user to predict user interest. However, these methods are not very effective for the users who post less but browse more. In this paper, we propose a new prediction model, which is called SHMF, using social hub matrix factorization. SHMF constructs the interest prediction model by combining the information of blogs posts published by both user and direct neighbors in user’s social hub. Our proposed model predicts user interest by integrating user’s historical behavior and temporal factor as well as user’s friendships, thus achieving accurate forecasts of user’s future interests. The experimental results on Sina Weibo show the efficiency and effectiveness of our proposed model.
Economic model predictive control theory, formulations and chemical process applications
Ellis, Matthew; Christofides, Panagiotis D
2017-01-01
This book presents general methods for the design of economic model predictive control (EMPC) systems for broad classes of nonlinear systems that address key theoretical and practical considerations including recursive feasibility, closed-loop stability, closed-loop performance, and computational efficiency. Specifically, the book proposes: Lyapunov-based EMPC methods for nonlinear systems; two-tier EMPC architectures that are highly computationally efficient; and EMPC schemes handling explicitly uncertainty, time-varying cost functions, time-delays and multiple-time-scale dynamics. The proposed methods employ a variety of tools ranging from nonlinear systems analysis, through Lyapunov-based control techniques to nonlinear dynamic optimization. The applicability and performance of the proposed methods are demonstrated through a number of chemical process examples. The book presents state-of-the-art methods for the design of economic model predictive control systems for chemical processes. In addition to being...
Predictive modeling of coupled multi-physics systems: I. Theory
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cacuci, Dan Gabriel
2014-01-01
Highlights: • We developed “predictive modeling of coupled multi-physics systems (PMCMPS)”. • PMCMPS reduces predicted uncertainties in predicted model responses and parameters. • PMCMPS treats efficiently very large coupled systems. - Abstract: This work presents an innovative mathematical methodology for “predictive modeling of coupled multi-physics systems (PMCMPS).” This methodology takes into account fully the coupling terms between the systems but requires only the computational resources that would be needed to perform predictive modeling on each system separately. The PMCMPS methodology uses the maximum entropy principle to construct an optimal approximation of the unknown a priori distribution based on a priori known mean values and uncertainties characterizing the parameters and responses for both multi-physics models. This “maximum entropy”-approximate a priori distribution is combined, using Bayes’ theorem, with the “likelihood” provided by the multi-physics simulation models. Subsequently, the posterior distribution thus obtained is evaluated using the saddle-point method to obtain analytical expressions for the optimally predicted values for the multi-physics models parameters and responses along with corresponding reduced uncertainties. Noteworthy, the predictive modeling methodology for the coupled systems is constructed such that the systems can be considered sequentially rather than simultaneously, while preserving exactly the same results as if the systems were treated simultaneously. Consequently, very large coupled systems, which could perhaps exceed available computational resources if treated simultaneously, can be treated with the PMCMPS methodology presented in this work sequentially and without any loss of generality or information, requiring just the resources that would be needed if the systems were treated sequentially
McCormick, Keith; Wei, Bowen
2017-01-01
IBM SPSS Modeler allows quick, efficient predictive analytics and insight building from your data, and is a popularly used data mining tool. This book will guide you through the data mining process, and presents relevant statistical methods which are used to build predictive models and conduct other analytic tasks using IBM SPSS Modeler. From ...
McCormick, Keith; Wei, Bowen
2017-01-01
IBM SPSS Modeler allows quick, efficient predictive analytics and insight building from your data, and is a popularly used data mining tool. This book will guide you through the data mining process, and presents relevant statistical methods which are used to build predictive models and conduct other analytic tasks using IBM SPSS Modeler. From ...
Curtis, Gary P.; Lu, Dan; Ye, Ming
2015-01-01
While Bayesian model averaging (BMA) has been widely used in groundwater modeling, it is infrequently applied to groundwater reactive transport modeling because of multiple sources of uncertainty in the coupled hydrogeochemical processes and because of the long execution time of each model run. To resolve these problems, this study analyzed different levels of uncertainty in a hierarchical way, and used the maximum likelihood version of BMA, i.e., MLBMA, to improve the computational efficiency. This study demonstrates the applicability of MLBMA to groundwater reactive transport modeling in a synthetic case in which twenty-seven reactive transport models were designed to predict the reactive transport of hexavalent uranium (U(VI)) based on observations at a former uranium mill site near Naturita, CO. These reactive transport models contain three uncertain model components, i.e., parameterization of hydraulic conductivity, configuration of model boundary, and surface complexation reactions that simulate U(VI) adsorption. These uncertain model components were aggregated into the alternative models by integrating a hierarchical structure into MLBMA. The modeling results of the individual models and MLBMA were analyzed to investigate their predictive performance. The predictive logscore results show that MLBMA generally outperforms the best model, suggesting that using MLBMA is a sound strategy to achieve more robust model predictions relative to a single model. MLBMA works best when the alternative models are structurally distinct and have diverse model predictions. When correlation in model structure exists, two strategies were used to improve predictive performance by retaining structurally distinct models or assigning smaller prior model probabilities to correlated models. Since the synthetic models were designed using data from the Naturita site, the results of this study are expected to provide guidance for real-world modeling. Limitations of applying MLBMA to the
Are animal models predictive for humans?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Greek Ray
2009-01-01
Full Text Available Abstract It is one of the central aims of the philosophy of science to elucidate the meanings of scientific terms and also to think critically about their application. The focus of this essay is the scientific term predict and whether there is credible evidence that animal models, especially in toxicology and pathophysiology, can be used to predict human outcomes. Whether animals can be used to predict human response to drugs and other chemicals is apparently a contentious issue. However, when one empirically analyzes animal models using scientific tools they fall far short of being able to predict human responses. This is not surprising considering what we have learned from fields such evolutionary and developmental biology, gene regulation and expression, epigenetics, complexity theory, and comparative genomics.
Evaluation of CASP8 model quality predictions
Cozzetto, Domenico
2009-01-01
The model quality assessment problem consists in the a priori estimation of the overall and per-residue accuracy of protein structure predictions. Over the past years, a number of methods have been developed to address this issue and CASP established a prediction category to evaluate their performance in 2006. In 2008 the experiment was repeated and its results are reported here. Participants were invited to infer the correctness of the protein models submitted by the registered automatic servers. Estimates could apply to both whole models and individual amino acids. Groups involved in the tertiary structure prediction categories were also asked to assign local error estimates to each predicted residue in their own models and their results are also discussed here. The correlation between the predicted and observed correctness measures was the basis of the assessment of the results. We observe that consensus-based methods still perform significantly better than those accepting single models, similarly to what was concluded in the previous edition of the experiment. © 2009 WILEY-LISS, INC.
Model Predictive Control with Constraints of a Wind Turbine
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Henriksen, Lars Christian; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad
2007-01-01
Model predictive control of wind turbines offer a more systematic approach of constructing controllers that handle constraints while focusing on the main control objective. In this article several controllers are designed for different wind conditions and appropriate switching conditions ensure...... an efficient control of the wind turbine over the entire range of wind speeds. Both onshore and floating offshore wind turbines are tested with the controllers....
Model predictive controller design of hydrocracker reactors
GÖKÇE, Dila
2014-01-01
This study summarizes the design of a Model Predictive Controller (MPC) in Tüpraş, İzmit Refinery Hydrocracker Unit Reactors. Hydrocracking process, in which heavy vacuum gasoil is converted into lighter and valuable products at high temperature and pressure is described briefly. Controller design description, identification and modeling studies are examined and the model variables are presented. WABT (Weighted Average Bed Temperature) equalization and conversion increase are simulate...
Multi-Model Ensemble Wake Vortex Prediction
Koerner, Stephan; Holzaepfel, Frank; Ahmad, Nash'at N.
2015-01-01
Several multi-model ensemble methods are investigated for predicting wake vortex transport and decay. This study is a joint effort between National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt to develop a multi-model ensemble capability using their wake models. An overview of different multi-model ensemble methods and their feasibility for wake applications is presented. The methods include Reliability Ensemble Averaging, Bayesian Model Averaging, and Monte Carlo Simulations. The methodologies are evaluated using data from wake vortex field experiments.
Mirmehrabi, Mahmoud; Rohani, Sohrab; Perry, Luisa
2006-04-01
A new activity coefficient model was developed from excess Gibbs free energy in the form G(ex) = cA(a) x(1)(b)...x(n)(b). The constants of the proposed model were considered to be function of solute and solvent dielectric constants, Hildebrand solubility parameters and specific volumes of solute and solvent molecules. The proposed model obeys the Gibbs-Duhem condition for activity coefficient models. To generalize the model and make it as a purely predictive model without any adjustable parameters, its constants were found using the experimental activity coefficient and physical properties of 20 vapor-liquid systems. The predictive capability of the proposed model was tested by calculating the activity coefficients of 41 binary vapor-liquid equilibrium systems and showed good agreement with the experimental data in comparison with two other predictive models, the UNIFAC and Hildebrand models. The only data used for the prediction of activity coefficients, were dielectric constants, Hildebrand solubility parameters, and specific volumes of the solute and solvent molecules. Furthermore, the proposed model was used to predict the activity coefficient of an organic compound, stearic acid, whose physical properties were available in methanol and 2-butanone. The predicted activity coefficient along with the thermal properties of the stearic acid were used to calculate the solubility of stearic acid in these two solvents and resulted in a better agreement with the experimental data compared to the UNIFAC and Hildebrand predictive models.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Camilo J Mininni
Full Text Available The prefrontal cortex (PFC is a key brain structure for decision making, behavioural flexibility and working memory. Neurons in PFC encode relevant stimuli through changes in their firing rate, although the metabolic cost of spiking activity puts strong constrains to neural codes based on firing rate modulation. Thus, how PFC neural populations code relevant information in an efficient way is not clearly understood. To address this issue we made single unit recordings in the PFC of rats performing a GO/NOGO discrimination task and analysed how entropy between pairs of neurons changes during cue presentation. We found that entropy rises only during reward-predicting cues. Moreover, this change in entropy occurred along an increase in the efficiency of the whole process. We studied possible mechanisms behind the efficient gain in entropy by means of a two neuron leaky integrate-and-fire model, and found that a precise relationship between synaptic efficacy and firing rate is required to explain the experimentally observed results.
Driving Green: Toward the Prediction and Influence of Efficient Driving Behavior
Newsome, William D.
Sub-optimal efficiency in activities involving the consumption of fossil fuels, such as driving, contribute to a miscellany of negative environmental, political, economic and social externalities. Demonstrations of the effectiveness of feedback interventions can be found in countless organizational settings, as can demonstrations of individual differences in sensitivity to feedback interventions. Mechanisms providing feedback to drivers about fuel economy are becoming standard equipment in most new vehicles, but vary considerably in their constitution. A keystone of Radical Behaviorism is the acknowledgement that verbal behavior appears to play a role in mediating apparent susceptibility to influence by contingencies of varying delay. In the current study, samples of verbal behavior (rules) were collected in the context of a feedback intervention to improve driving efficiency. In an analysis of differences in individual responsiveness to the feedback intervention, the rate of novel rules per week generated by drivers is revealed to account for a substantial proportion of the variability in relative efficiency gains across participants. The predictive utility of conceptual tools, such as the basic distinction among contingency-shaped and rule governed behavior, the elaboration of direct-acting and indirect-acting contingencies, and the psychological flexibility model, is bolstered by these findings.
PREDICTIVE CAPACITY OF ARCH FAMILY MODELS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Raphael Silveira Amaro
2016-03-01
Full Text Available In the last decades, a remarkable number of models, variants from the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic family, have been developed and empirically tested, making extremely complex the process of choosing a particular model. This research aim to compare the predictive capacity, using the Model Confidence Set procedure, than five conditional heteroskedasticity models, considering eight different statistical probability distributions. The financial series which were used refers to the log-return series of the Bovespa index and the Dow Jones Industrial Index in the period between 27 October 2008 and 30 December 2014. The empirical evidences showed that, in general, competing models have a great homogeneity to make predictions, either for a stock market of a developed country or for a stock market of a developing country. An equivalent result can be inferred for the statistical probability distributions that were used.
Wimmer, Valentin; Lehermeier, Christina; Albrecht, Theresa; Auinger, Hans-Jürgen; Wang, Yu; Schön, Chris-Carolin
2013-10-01
In genome-based prediction there is considerable uncertainty about the statistical model and method required to maximize prediction accuracy. For traits influenced by a small number of quantitative trait loci (QTL), predictions are expected to benefit from methods performing variable selection [e.g., BayesB or the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)] compared to methods distributing effects across the genome [ridge regression best linear unbiased prediction (RR-BLUP)]. We investigate the assumptions underlying successful variable selection by combining computer simulations with large-scale experimental data sets from rice (Oryza sativa L.), wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), and Arabidopsis thaliana (L.). We demonstrate that variable selection can be successful when the number of phenotyped individuals is much larger than the number of causal mutations contributing to the trait. We show that the sample size required for efficient variable selection increases dramatically with decreasing trait heritabilities and increasing extent of linkage disequilibrium (LD). We contrast and discuss contradictory results from simulation and experimental studies with respect to superiority of variable selection methods over RR-BLUP. Our results demonstrate that due to long-range LD, medium heritabilities, and small sample sizes, superiority of variable selection methods cannot be expected in plant breeding populations even for traits like FRIGIDA gene expression in Arabidopsis and flowering time in rice, assumed to be influenced by a few major QTL. We extend our conclusions to the analysis of whole-genome sequence data and infer upper bounds for the number of causal mutations which can be identified by LASSO. Our results have major impact on the choice of statistical method needed to make credible inferences about genetic architecture and prediction accuracy of complex traits.
Modeling adaptation of carbon use efficiency in microbial communities
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Steven D Allison
2014-10-01
Full Text Available In new microbial-biogeochemical models, microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE is often assumed to decline with increasing temperature. Under this assumption, soil carbon losses under warming are small because microbial biomass declines. Yet there is also empirical evidence that CUE may adapt (i.e. become less sensitive to warming, thereby mitigating negative effects on microbial biomass. To analyze potential mechanisms of CUE adaptation, I used two theoretical models to implement a tradeoff between microbial uptake rate and CUE. This rate-yield tradeoff is based on thermodynamic principles and suggests that microbes with greater investment in resource acquisition should have lower CUE. Microbial communities or individuals could adapt to warming by reducing investment in enzymes and uptake machinery. Consistent with this idea, a simple analytical model predicted that adaptation can offset 50% of the warming-induced decline in CUE. To assess the ecosystem implications of the rate-yield tradeoff, I quantified CUE adaptation in a spatially-structured simulation model with 100 microbial taxa and 12 soil carbon substrates. This model predicted much lower CUE adaptation, likely due to additional physiological and ecological constraints on microbes. In particular, specific resource acquisition traits are needed to maintain stoichiometric balance, and taxa with high CUE and low enzyme investment rely on low-yield, high-enzyme neighbors to catalyze substrate degradation. In contrast to published microbial models, simulations with greater CUE adaptation also showed greater carbon storage under warming. This pattern occurred because microbial communities with stronger CUE adaptation produced fewer degradative enzymes, despite increases in biomass. Thus the rate-yield tradeoff prevents CUE adaptation from driving ecosystem carbon loss under climate warming.
A revised prediction model for natural conception.
Bensdorp, Alexandra J; van der Steeg, Jan Willem; Steures, Pieternel; Habbema, J Dik F; Hompes, Peter G A; Bossuyt, Patrick M M; van der Veen, Fulco; Mol, Ben W J; Eijkemans, Marinus J C
2017-06-01
One of the aims in reproductive medicine is to differentiate between couples that have favourable chances of conceiving naturally and those that do not. Since the development of the prediction model of Hunault, characteristics of the subfertile population have changed. The objective of this analysis was to assess whether additional predictors can refine the Hunault model and extend its applicability. Consecutive subfertile couples with unexplained and mild male subfertility presenting in fertility clinics were asked to participate in a prospective cohort study. We constructed a multivariable prediction model with the predictors from the Hunault model and new potential predictors. The primary outcome, natural conception leading to an ongoing pregnancy, was observed in 1053 women of the 5184 included couples (20%). All predictors of the Hunault model were selected into the revised model plus an additional seven (woman's body mass index, cycle length, basal FSH levels, tubal status,history of previous pregnancies in the current relationship (ongoing pregnancies after natural conception, fertility treatment or miscarriages), semen volume, and semen morphology. Predictions from the revised model seem to concur better with observed pregnancy rates compared with the Hunault model; c-statistic of 0.71 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.73) compared with 0.59 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.61). Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Modelling the predictive performance of credit scoring
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shi-Wei Shen
2013-07-01
Research purpose: The purpose of this empirical paper was to examine the predictive performance of credit scoring systems in Taiwan. Motivation for the study: Corporate lending remains a major business line for financial institutions. However, in light of the recent global financial crises, it has become extremely important for financial institutions to implement rigorous means of assessing clients seeking access to credit facilities. Research design, approach and method: Using a data sample of 10 349 observations drawn between 1992 and 2010, logistic regression models were utilised to examine the predictive performance of credit scoring systems. Main findings: A test of Goodness of fit demonstrated that credit scoring models that incorporated the Taiwan Corporate Credit Risk Index (TCRI, micro- and also macroeconomic variables possessed greater predictive power. This suggests that macroeconomic variables do have explanatory power for default credit risk. Practical/managerial implications: The originality in the study was that three models were developed to predict corporate firms’ defaults based on different microeconomic and macroeconomic factors such as the TCRI, asset growth rates, stock index and gross domestic product. Contribution/value-add: The study utilises different goodness of fits and receiver operator characteristics during the examination of the robustness of the predictive power of these factors.
Modelling language evolution: Examples and predictions
Gong, Tao; Shuai, Lan; Zhang, Menghan
2014-06-01
We survey recent computer modelling research of language evolution, focusing on a rule-based model simulating the lexicon-syntax coevolution and an equation-based model quantifying the language competition dynamics. We discuss four predictions of these models: (a) correlation between domain-general abilities (e.g. sequential learning) and language-specific mechanisms (e.g. word order processing); (b) coevolution of language and relevant competences (e.g. joint attention); (c) effects of cultural transmission and social structure on linguistic understandability; and (d) commonalities between linguistic, biological, and physical phenomena. All these contribute significantly to our understanding of the evolutions of language structures, individual learning mechanisms, and relevant biological and socio-cultural factors. We conclude the survey by highlighting three future directions of modelling studies of language evolution: (a) adopting experimental approaches for model evaluation; (b) consolidating empirical foundations of models; and (c) multi-disciplinary collaboration among modelling, linguistics, and other relevant disciplines.
Bayesian Predictive Models for Rayleigh Wind Speed
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Shahirinia, Amir; Hajizadeh, Amin; Yu, David C
2017-01-01
predictive model of the wind speed aggregates the non-homogeneous distributions into a single continuous distribution. Therefore, the result is able to capture the variation among the probability distributions of the wind speeds at the turbines’ locations in a wind farm. More specifically, instead of using...... a wind speed distribution whose parameters are known or estimated, the parameters are considered as random whose variations are according to probability distributions. The Bayesian predictive model for a Rayleigh which only has a single model scale parameter has been proposed. Also closed-form posterior......One of the major challenges with the increase in wind power generation is the uncertain nature of wind speed. So far the uncertainty about wind speed has been presented through probability distributions. Also the existing models that consider the uncertainty of the wind speed primarily view...
Comparison of two ordinal prediction models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kattan, Michael W; Gerds, Thomas A
2015-01-01
system (i.e. old or new), such as the level of evidence for one or more factors included in the system or the general opinions of expert clinicians. However, given the major objective of estimating prognosis on an ordinal scale, we argue that the rival staging system candidates should be compared...... on their ability to predict outcome. We sought to outline an algorithm that would compare two rival ordinal systems on their predictive ability. RESULTS: We devised an algorithm based largely on the concordance index, which is appropriate for comparing two models in their ability to rank observations. We...... demonstrate our algorithm with a prostate cancer staging system example. CONCLUSION: We have provided an algorithm for selecting the preferred staging system based on prognostic accuracy. It appears to be useful for the purpose of selecting between two ordinal prediction models....
Predictive analytics can support the ACO model.
Bradley, Paul
2012-04-01
Predictive analytics can be used to rapidly spot hard-to-identify opportunities to better manage care--a key tool in accountable care. When considering analytics models, healthcare providers should: Make value-based care a priority and act on information from analytics models. Create a road map that includes achievable steps, rather than major endeavors. Set long-term expectations and recognize that the effectiveness of an analytics program takes time, unlike revenue cycle initiatives that may show a quick return.
Predictive modeling in homogeneous catalysis: a tutorial
Maldonado, A.G.; Rothenberg, G.
2010-01-01
Predictive modeling has become a practical research tool in homogeneous catalysis. It can help to pinpoint ‘good regions’ in the catalyst space, narrowing the search for the optimal catalyst for a given reaction. Just like any other new idea, in silico catalyst optimization is accepted by some
Model predictive control of smart microgrids
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hu, Jiefeng; Zhu, Jianguo; Guerrero, Josep M.
2014-01-01
required to realise high-performance of distributed generations and will realise innovative control techniques utilising model predictive control (MPC) to assist in coordinating the plethora of generation and load combinations, thus enable the effective exploitation of the clean renewable energy sources...
Feedback model predictive control by randomized algorithms
Batina, Ivo; Stoorvogel, Antonie Arij; Weiland, Siep
2001-01-01
In this paper we present a further development of an algorithm for stochastic disturbance rejection in model predictive control with input constraints based on randomized algorithms. The algorithm presented in our work can solve the problem of stochastic disturbance rejection approximately but with
A Robustly Stabilizing Model Predictive Control Algorithm
Ackmece, A. Behcet; Carson, John M., III
2007-01-01
A model predictive control (MPC) algorithm that differs from prior MPC algorithms has been developed for controlling an uncertain nonlinear system. This algorithm guarantees the resolvability of an associated finite-horizon optimal-control problem in a receding-horizon implementation.
Hierarchical Model Predictive Control for Resource Distribution
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bendtsen, Jan Dimon; Trangbæk, K; Stoustrup, Jakob
2010-01-01
This paper deals with hierarchichal model predictive control (MPC) of distributed systems. A three level hierachical approach is proposed, consisting of a high level MPC controller, a second level of so-called aggregators, controlled by an online MPC-like algorithm, and a lower level of autonomous...
Model Predictive Control based on Finite Impulse Response Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Prasath, Guru; Jørgensen, John Bagterp
2008-01-01
We develop a regularized l2 finite impulse response (FIR) predictive controller with input and input-rate constraints. Feedback is based on a simple constant output disturbance filter. The performance of the predictive controller in the face of plant-model mismatch is investigated by simulations ...
Genomic value prediction for quantitative traits under the epistatic model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xu Shizhong
2011-01-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Most quantitative traits are controlled by multiple quantitative trait loci (QTL. The contribution of each locus may be negligible but the collective contribution of all loci is usually significant. Genome selection that uses markers of the entire genome to predict the genomic values of individual plants or animals can be more efficient than selection on phenotypic values and pedigree information alone for genetic improvement. When a quantitative trait is contributed by epistatic effects, using all markers (main effects and marker pairs (epistatic effects to predict the genomic values of plants can achieve the maximum efficiency for genetic improvement. Results In this study, we created 126 recombinant inbred lines of soybean and genotyped 80 makers across the genome. We applied the genome selection technique to predict the genomic value of somatic embryo number (a quantitative trait for each line. Cross validation analysis showed that the squared correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted embryo numbers was 0.33 when only main (additive effects were used for prediction. When the interaction (epistatic effects were also included in the model, the squared correlation coefficient reached 0.78. Conclusions This study provided an excellent example for the application of genome selection to plant breeding.
Disease prediction models and operational readiness.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Courtney D Corley
Full Text Available The objective of this manuscript is to present a systematic review of biosurveillance models that operate on select agents and can forecast the occurrence of a disease event. We define a disease event to be a biological event with focus on the One Health paradigm. These events are characterized by evidence of infection and or disease condition. We reviewed models that attempted to predict a disease event, not merely its transmission dynamics and we considered models involving pathogens of concern as determined by the US National Select Agent Registry (as of June 2011. We searched commercial and government databases and harvested Google search results for eligible models, using terms and phrases provided by public health analysts relating to biosurveillance, remote sensing, risk assessments, spatial epidemiology, and ecological niche modeling. After removal of duplications and extraneous material, a core collection of 6,524 items was established, and these publications along with their abstracts are presented in a semantic wiki at http://BioCat.pnnl.gov. As a result, we systematically reviewed 44 papers, and the results are presented in this analysis. We identified 44 models, classified as one or more of the following: event prediction (4, spatial (26, ecological niche (28, diagnostic or clinical (6, spread or response (9, and reviews (3. The model parameters (e.g., etiology, climatic, spatial, cultural and data sources (e.g., remote sensing, non-governmental organizations, expert opinion, epidemiological were recorded and reviewed. A component of this review is the identification of verification and validation (V&V methods applied to each model, if any V&V method was reported. All models were classified as either having undergone Some Verification or Validation method, or No Verification or Validation. We close by outlining an initial set of operational readiness level guidelines for disease prediction models based upon established Technology
Predictable quantum efficient detector based on n-type silicon photodiodes
Dönsberg, Timo; Manoocheri, Farshid; Sildoja, Meelis; Juntunen, Mikko; Savin, Hele; Tuovinen, Esa; Ronkainen, Hannu; Prunnila, Mika; Merimaa, Mikko; Tang, Chi Kwong; Gran, Jarle; Müller, Ingmar; Werner, Lutz; Rougié, Bernard; Pons, Alicia; Smîd, Marek; Gál, Péter; Lolli, Lapo; Brida, Giorgio; Rastello, Maria Luisa; Ikonen, Erkki
2017-12-01
The predictable quantum efficient detector (PQED) consists of two custom-made induced junction photodiodes that are mounted in a wedged trap configuration for the reduction of reflectance losses. Until now, all manufactured PQED photodiodes have been based on a structure where a SiO2 layer is thermally grown on top of p-type silicon substrate. In this paper, we present the design, manufacturing, modelling and characterization of a new type of PQED, where the photodiodes have an Al2O3 layer on top of n-type silicon substrate. Atomic layer deposition is used to deposit the layer to the desired thickness. Two sets of photodiodes with varying oxide thicknesses and substrate doping concentrations were fabricated. In order to predict recombination losses of charge carriers, a 3D model of the photodiode was built into Cogenda Genius semiconductor simulation software. It is important to note that a novel experimental method was developed to obtain values for the 3D model parameters. This makes the prediction of the PQED responsivity a completely autonomous process. Detectors were characterized for temperature dependence of dark current, spatial uniformity of responsivity, reflectance, linearity and absolute responsivity at the wavelengths of 488 nm and 532 nm. For both sets of photodiodes, the modelled and measured responsivities were generally in agreement within the measurement and modelling uncertainties of around 100 parts per million (ppm). There is, however, an indication that the modelled internal quantum deficiency may be underestimated by a similar amount. Moreover, the responsivities of the detectors were spatially uniform within 30 ppm peak-to-peak variation. The results obtained in this research indicate that the n-type induced junction photodiode is a very promising alternative to the existing p-type detectors, and thus give additional credibility to the concept of modelled quantum detector serving as a primary standard. Furthermore, the manufacturing of
Link Prediction via Sparse Gaussian Graphical Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Liangliang Zhang
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Link prediction is an important task in complex network analysis. Traditional link prediction methods are limited by network topology and lack of node property information, which makes predicting links challenging. In this study, we address link prediction using a sparse Gaussian graphical model and demonstrate its theoretical and practical effectiveness. In theory, link prediction is executed by estimating the inverse covariance matrix of samples to overcome information limits. The proposed method was evaluated with four small and four large real-world datasets. The experimental results show that the area under the curve (AUC value obtained by the proposed method improved by an average of 3% and 12.5% compared to 13 mainstream similarity methods, respectively. This method outperforms the baseline method, and the prediction accuracy is superior to mainstream methods when using only 80% of the training set. The method also provides significantly higher AUC values when using only 60% in Dolphin and Taro datasets. Furthermore, the error rate of the proposed method demonstrates superior performance with all datasets compared to mainstream methods.
Effective and efficient model clone detection
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Störrle, Harald
2015-01-01
Code clones are a major source of software defects. Thus, it is likely that model clones (i.e., duplicate fragments of models) have a significant negative impact on model quality, and thus, on any software created based on those models, irrespective of whether the software is generated fully...... automatically (“MDD-style”) or hand-crafted following the blueprint defined by the model (“MBSD-style”). Unfortunately, however, model clones are much less well studied than code clones. In this paper, we present a clone detection algorithm for UML domain models. Our approach covers a much greater variety...... of model types than existing approaches while providing high clone detection rates at high speed....
Characterizing Attention with Predictive Network Models.
Rosenberg, M D; Finn, E S; Scheinost, D; Constable, R T; Chun, M M
2017-04-01
Recent work shows that models based on functional connectivity in large-scale brain networks can predict individuals' attentional abilities. While being some of the first generalizable neuromarkers of cognitive function, these models also inform our basic understanding of attention, providing empirical evidence that: (i) attention is a network property of brain computation; (ii) the functional architecture that underlies attention can be measured while people are not engaged in any explicit task; and (iii) this architecture supports a general attentional ability that is common to several laboratory-based tasks and is impaired in attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Looking ahead, connectivity-based predictive models of attention and other cognitive abilities and behaviors may potentially improve the assessment, diagnosis, and treatment of clinical dysfunction. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Genetic models of homosexuality: generating testable predictions
Gavrilets, Sergey; Rice, William R
2006-01-01
Homosexuality is a common occurrence in humans and other species, yet its genetic and evolutionary basis is poorly understood. Here, we formulate and study a series of simple mathematical models for the purpose of predicting empirical patterns that can be used to determine the form of selection that leads to polymorphism of genes influencing homosexuality. Specifically, we develop theory to make contrasting predictions about the genetic characteristics of genes influencing homosexuality including: (i) chromosomal location, (ii) dominance among segregating alleles and (iii) effect sizes that distinguish between the two major models for their polymorphism: the overdominance and sexual antagonism models. We conclude that the measurement of the genetic characteristics of quantitative trait loci (QTLs) found in genomic screens for genes influencing homosexuality can be highly informative in resolving the form of natural selection maintaining their polymorphism. PMID:17015344
Estimation and prediction under local volatility jump-diffusion model
Kim, Namhyoung; Lee, Younhee
2018-02-01
Volatility is an important factor in operating a company and managing risk. In the portfolio optimization and risk hedging using the option, the value of the option is evaluated using the volatility model. Various attempts have been made to predict option value. Recent studies have shown that stochastic volatility models and jump-diffusion models reflect stock price movements accurately. However, these models have practical limitations. Combining them with the local volatility model, which is widely used among practitioners, may lead to better performance. In this study, we propose a more effective and efficient method of estimating option prices by combining the local volatility model with the jump-diffusion model and apply it using both artificial and actual market data to evaluate its performance. The calibration process for estimating the jump parameters and local volatility surfaces is divided into three stages. We apply the local volatility model, stochastic volatility model, and local volatility jump-diffusion model estimated by the proposed method to KOSPI 200 index option pricing. The proposed method displays good estimation and prediction performance.
A statistical model for predicting muscle performance
Byerly, Diane Leslie De Caix
The objective of these studies was to develop a capability for predicting muscle performance and fatigue to be utilized for both space- and ground-based applications. To develop this predictive model, healthy test subjects performed a defined, repetitive dynamic exercise to failure using a Lordex spinal machine. Throughout the exercise, surface electromyography (SEMG) data were collected from the erector spinae using a Mega Electronics ME3000 muscle tester and surface electrodes placed on both sides of the back muscle. These data were analyzed using a 5th order Autoregressive (AR) model and statistical regression analysis. It was determined that an AR derived parameter, the mean average magnitude of AR poles, significantly correlated with the maximum number of repetitions (designated Rmax) that a test subject was able to perform. Using the mean average magnitude of AR poles, a test subject's performance to failure could be predicted as early as the sixth repetition of the exercise. This predictive model has the potential to provide a basis for improving post-space flight recovery, monitoring muscle atrophy in astronauts and assessing the effectiveness of countermeasures, monitoring astronaut performance and fatigue during Extravehicular Activity (EVA) operations, providing pre-flight assessment of the ability of an EVA crewmember to perform a given task, improving the design of training protocols and simulations for strenuous International Space Station assembly EVA, and enabling EVA work task sequences to be planned enhancing astronaut performance and safety. Potential ground-based, medical applications of the predictive model include monitoring muscle deterioration and performance resulting from illness, establishing safety guidelines in the industry for repetitive tasks, monitoring the stages of rehabilitation for muscle-related injuries sustained in sports and accidents, and enhancing athletic performance through improved training protocols while reducing
Predicting Power Outages Using Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts
Cerrai, D.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Yang, J.; Astitha, M.
2017-12-01
Power outages affect every year millions of people in the United States, affecting the economy and conditioning the everyday life. An Outage Prediction Model (OPM) has been developed at the University of Connecticut for helping utilities to quickly restore outages and to limit their adverse consequences on the population. The OPM, operational since 2015, combines several non-parametric machine learning (ML) models that use historical weather storm simulations and high-resolution weather forecasts, satellite remote sensing data, and infrastructure and land cover data to predict the number and spatial distribution of power outages. A new methodology, developed for improving the outage model performances by combining weather- and soil-related variables using three different weather models (WRF 3.7, WRF 3.8 and RAMS/ICLAMS), will be presented in this study. First, we will present a performance evaluation of each model variable, by comparing historical weather analyses with station data or reanalysis over the entire storm data set. Hence, each variable of the new outage model version is extracted from the best performing weather model for that variable, and sensitivity tests are performed for investigating the most efficient variable combination for outage prediction purposes. Despite that the final variables combination is extracted from different weather models, this ensemble based on multi-weather forcing and multi-statistical model power outage prediction outperforms the currently operational OPM version that is based on a single weather forcing variable (WRF 3.7), because each model component is the closest to the actual atmospheric state.
Prediction models : the right tool for the right problem
Kappen, Teus H.; Peelen, Linda M.
2016-01-01
PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Perioperative prediction models can help to improve personalized patient care by providing individual risk predictions to both patients and providers. However, the scientific literature on prediction model development and validation can be quite technical and challenging to
Efficient estimation of semiparametric copula models for bivariate survival data
Cheng, Guang
2014-01-01
A semiparametric copula model for bivariate survival data is characterized by a parametric copula model of dependence and nonparametric models of two marginal survival functions. Efficient estimation for the semiparametric copula model has been recently studied for the complete data case. When the survival data are censored, semiparametric efficient estimation has only been considered for some specific copula models such as the Gaussian copulas. In this paper, we obtain the semiparametric efficiency bound and efficient estimation for general semiparametric copula models for possibly censored data. We construct an approximate maximum likelihood estimator by approximating the log baseline hazard functions with spline functions. We show that our estimates of the copula dependence parameter and the survival functions are asymptotically normal and efficient. Simple consistent covariance estimators are also provided. Numerical results are used to illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed estimators. © 2013 Elsevier Inc.
Neuro-fuzzy modeling in bankruptcy prediction
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vlachos D.
2003-01-01
Full Text Available For the past 30 years the problem of bankruptcy prediction had been thoroughly studied. From the paper of Altman in 1968 to the recent papers in the '90s, the progress of prediction accuracy was not satisfactory. This paper investigates an alternative modeling of the system (firm, combining neural networks and fuzzy controllers, i.e. using neuro-fuzzy models. Classical modeling is based on mathematical models that describe the behavior of the firm under consideration. The main idea of fuzzy control, on the other hand, is to build a model of a human control expert who is capable of controlling the process without thinking in a mathematical model. This control expert specifies his control action in the form of linguistic rules. These control rules are translated into the framework of fuzzy set theory providing a calculus, which can stimulate the behavior of the control expert and enhance its performance. The accuracy of the model is studied using datasets from previous research papers.
De Loof, Esther; Van Opstal, Filip; Verguts, Tom
2016-04-01
Theories on visual awareness claim that predicted stimuli reach awareness faster than unpredicted ones. In the current study, we disentangle whether prior information about the upcoming stimulus affects visual awareness of stimulus location (i.e., individuation) by modulating processing efficiency or threshold setting. Analogous research on stimulus identification revealed that prior information modulates threshold setting. However, as identification and individuation are two functionally and neurally distinct processes, the mechanisms underlying identification cannot simply be extrapolated directly to individuation. The goal of this study was therefore to investigate how individuation is influenced by prior information about the upcoming stimulus. To do so, a drift diffusion model was fitted to estimate the processing efficiency and threshold setting for predicted versus unpredicted stimuli in a cued individuation paradigm. Participants were asked to locate a picture, following a cue that was congruent, incongruent or neutral with respect to the picture's identity. Pictures were individuated faster in the congruent and neutral condition compared to the incongruent condition. In the diffusion model analysis, the processing efficiency was not significantly different across conditions. However, the threshold setting was significantly higher following an incongruent cue compared to both congruent and neutral cues. Our results indicate that predictive information about the upcoming stimulus influences visual awareness by shifting the threshold for individuation rather than by enhancing processing efficiency. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Song, Jian; Gu, Chun-wei; Ren, Xiaodong
2016-01-01
Highlights: • The efficiency prediction is based on the velocity triangle and loss models. • The efficiency selection has a big influence on the working fluid selection. • The efficiency selection has a big influence on system parameter determination. - Abstract: The radial-inflow turbine is a common choice for the power output in the Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) system. Its efficiency is related to the working fluid property and the system operating condition. Generally, the radial-inflow turbine efficiency is assumed to be a constant value in the conventional ORC system analysis. Few studies focus on the influence of the radial-inflow turbine efficiency selection on the system design and analysis. Actually, the ORC system design and the radial-inflow turbine design are coupled with each other. Different thermal parameters of the ORC system would lead to different radial-inflow turbine design and then different turbine efficiency, and vice versa. Therefore, considering the radial-inflow turbine efficiency prediction in the ORC system design can enhance its reliability and accuracy. In this paper, a one-dimensional analysis model for the radial-inflow turbine in the ORC system is presented. The radial-inflow turbine efficiency prediction in this model is based on the velocity triangle and loss models, rather than a constant efficiency assumption. The influence of the working fluid property and the system operating condition on the turbine performance is evaluated. The thermodynamic analysis of the ORC system with a model predicted turbine efficiency and a constant turbine efficiency is conducted and the results are compared with each other. It indicates that the turbine efficiency selection has a significant influence on the working fluid selection and the system parameter determination.
Assessment of Energy Efficient and Model Based Control
2017-06-15
ARL-TR-8042 ● JUNE 2017 US Army Research Laboratory Assessment of Energy -Efficient and Model- Based Control by Craig Lennon...originator. ARL-TR-8042 ● JUNE 2017 US Army Research Laboratory Assessment of Energy -Efficient and Model- Based Control by Craig...
High Precision Clock Bias Prediction Model in Clock Synchronization System
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zan Liu
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Time synchronization is a fundamental requirement for many services provided by a distributed system. Clock calibration through the time signal is the usual way to realize the synchronization among the clocks used in the distributed system. The interference to time signal transmission or equipment failures may bring about failure to synchronize the time. To solve this problem, a clock bias prediction module is paralleled in the clock calibration system. And for improving the precision of clock bias prediction, the first-order grey model with one variable (GM(1,1 model is proposed. In the traditional GM(1,1 model, the combination of parameters determined by least squares criterion is not optimal; therefore, the particle swarm optimization (PSO is used to optimize GM(1,1 model. At the same time, in order to avoid PSO getting stuck at local optimization and improve its efficiency, the mechanisms that double subgroups and nonlinear decreasing inertia weight are proposed. In order to test the precision of the improved model, we design clock calibration experiments, where time signal is transferred via radio and wired channel, respectively. The improved model is built on the basis of clock bias acquired in the experiments. The results show that the improved model is superior to other models both in precision and in stability. The precision of improved model increased by 66.4%~76.7%.
Predictive Models for Carcinogenicity and Mutagenicity ...
Mutagenicity and carcinogenicity are endpoints of major environmental and regulatory concern. These endpoints are also important targets for development of alternative methods for screening and prediction due to the large number of chemicals of potential concern and the tremendous cost (in time, money, animals) of rodent carcinogenicity bioassays. Both mutagenicity and carcinogenicity involve complex, cellular processes that are only partially understood. Advances in technologies and generation of new data will permit a much deeper understanding. In silico methods for predicting mutagenicity and rodent carcinogenicity based on chemical structural features, along with current mutagenicity and carcinogenicity data sets, have performed well for local prediction (i.e., within specific chemical classes), but are less successful for global prediction (i.e., for a broad range of chemicals). The predictivity of in silico methods can be improved by improving the quality of the data base and endpoints used for modelling. In particular, in vitro assays for clastogenicity need to be improved to reduce false positives (relative to rodent carcinogenicity) and to detect compounds that do not interact directly with DNA or have epigenetic activities. New assays emerging to complement or replace some of the standard assays include VitotoxTM, GreenScreenGC, and RadarScreen. The needs of industry and regulators to assess thousands of compounds necessitate the development of high-t
Information, complexity and efficiency: The automobile model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Allenby, B. [Lucent Technologies (United States)]|[Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)
1996-08-08
The new, rapidly evolving field of industrial ecology - the objective, multidisciplinary study of industrial and economic systems and their linkages with fundamental natural systems - provides strong ground for believing that a more environmentally and economically efficient economy will be more information intensive and complex. Information and intellectual capital will be substituted for the more traditional inputs of materials and energy in producing a desirable, yet sustainable, quality of life. While at this point this remains a strong hypothesis, the evolution of the automobile industry can be used to illustrate how such substitution may, in fact, already be occurring in an environmentally and economically critical sector.
Disease Prediction Models and Operational Readiness
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Corley, Courtney D.; Pullum, Laura L.; Hartley, David M.; Benedum, Corey M.; Noonan, Christine F.; Rabinowitz, Peter M.; Lancaster, Mary J.
2014-03-19
INTRODUCTION: The objective of this manuscript is to present a systematic review of biosurveillance models that operate on select agents and can forecast the occurrence of a disease event. One of the primary goals of this research was to characterize the viability of biosurveillance models to provide operationally relevant information for decision makers to identify areas for future research. Two critical characteristics differentiate this work from other infectious disease modeling reviews. First, we reviewed models that attempted to predict the disease event, not merely its transmission dynamics. Second, we considered models involving pathogens of concern as determined by the US National Select Agent Registry (as of June 2011). Methods: We searched dozens of commercial and government databases and harvested Google search results for eligible models utilizing terms and phrases provided by public health analysts relating to biosurveillance, remote sensing, risk assessments, spatial epidemiology, and ecological niche-modeling, The publication date of search results returned are bound by the dates of coverage of each database and the date in which the search was performed, however all searching was completed by December 31, 2010. This returned 13,767 webpages and 12,152 citations. After de-duplication and removal of extraneous material, a core collection of 6,503 items was established and these publications along with their abstracts are presented in a semantic wiki at http://BioCat.pnnl.gov. Next, PNNL’s IN-SPIRE visual analytics software was used to cross-correlate these publications with the definition for a biosurveillance model resulting in the selection of 54 documents that matched the criteria resulting Ten of these documents, However, dealt purely with disease spread models, inactivation of bacteria, or the modeling of human immune system responses to pathogens rather than predicting disease events. As a result, we systematically reviewed 44 papers and the
Nonlinear model predictive control theory and algorithms
Grüne, Lars
2017-01-01
This book offers readers a thorough and rigorous introduction to nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) for discrete-time and sampled-data systems. NMPC schemes with and without stabilizing terminal constraints are detailed, and intuitive examples illustrate the performance of different NMPC variants. NMPC is interpreted as an approximation of infinite-horizon optimal control so that important properties like closed-loop stability, inverse optimality and suboptimality can be derived in a uniform manner. These results are complemented by discussions of feasibility and robustness. An introduction to nonlinear optimal control algorithms yields essential insights into how the nonlinear optimization routine—the core of any nonlinear model predictive controller—works. Accompanying software in MATLAB® and C++ (downloadable from extras.springer.com/), together with an explanatory appendix in the book itself, enables readers to perform computer experiments exploring the possibilities and limitations of NMPC. T...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Moon, Jin Woo; Yoon, Younju; Jeon, Young-Hoon; Kim, Sooyoung
2017-01-01
Highlights: • Initial ANN model was developed for predicting the time to the setback temperature. • Initial model was optimized for producing accurate output. • Optimized model proved its prediction accuracy. • ANN-based algorithms were developed and tested their performance. • ANN-based algorithms presented superior thermal comfort or energy efficiency. - Abstract: In this study, a temperature control algorithm was developed to apply a setback temperature predictively for the cooling system of a residential building during occupied periods by residents. An artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed to determine the required time for increasing the current indoor temperature to the setback temperature. This study involved three phases: development of the initial ANN-based prediction model, optimization and testing of the initial model, and development and testing of three control algorithms. The development and performance testing of the model and algorithm were conducted using TRNSYS and MATLAB. Through the development and optimization process, the final ANN model employed indoor temperature and the temperature difference between the current and target setback temperature as two input neurons. The optimal number of hidden layers, number of neurons, learning rate, and moment were determined to be 4, 9, 0.6, and 0.9, respectively. The tangent–sigmoid and pure-linear transfer function was used in the hidden and output neurons, respectively. The ANN model used 100 training data sets with sliding-window method for data management. Levenberg-Marquart training method was employed for model training. The optimized model had a prediction accuracy of 0.9097 root mean square errors when compared with the simulated results. Employing the ANN model, ANN-based algorithms maintained indoor temperatures better within target ranges. Compared to the conventional algorithm, the ANN-based algorithms reduced the duration of time, in which the indoor temperature
A predictive model for dimensional errors in fused deposition modeling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Stolfi, A.
2015-01-01
values of L (0.254 mm, 0.330 mm) was produced by comparing predicted values with external face-to-face measurements. After removing outliers, the results show that the developed two-parameter model can serve as tool for modeling the FDM dimensional behavior in a wide range of deposition angles....
A predictive model for dimensional errors in fused deposition modeling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Stolfi, A.
2015-01-01
This work concerns the effect of deposition angle (a) and layer thickness (L) on the dimensional performance of FDM parts using a predictive model based on the geometrical description of the FDM filament profile. An experimental validation over the whole a range from 0° to 177° at 3° steps and two...... values of L (0.254 mm, 0.330 mm) was produced by comparing predicted values with external face-to-face measurements. After removing outliers, the results show that the developed two-parameter model can serve as tool for modeling the FDM dimensional behavior in a wide range of deposition angles....
Predictive Modeling in Actinide Chemistry and Catalysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Yang, Ping [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2016-05-16
These are slides from a presentation on predictive modeling in actinide chemistry and catalysis. The following topics are covered in these slides: Structures, bonding, and reactivity (bonding can be quantified by optical probes and theory, and electronic structures and reaction mechanisms of actinide complexes); Magnetic resonance properties (transition metal catalysts with multi-nuclear centers, and NMR/EPR parameters); Moving to more complex systems (surface chemistry of nanomaterials, and interactions of ligands with nanoparticles); Path forward and conclusions.
Predictive modelling of evidence informed teaching
Zhang, Dell; Brown, C.
2017-01-01
In this paper, we analyse the questionnaire survey data collected from 79 English primary schools about the situation of evidence informed teaching, where the evidences could come from research journals or conferences. Specifically, we build a predictive model to see what external factors could help to close the gap between teachers’ belief and behaviour in evidence informed teaching, which is the first of its kind to our knowledge. The major challenge, from the data mining perspective, is th...
A Predictive Model for Cognitive Radio
2006-09-14
response in a given situation. Vadde et al. interest and produce a model for prediction of the response. have applied response surface methodology and...34 2000. [3] K. K. Vadde and V. R. Syrotiuk, "Factor interaction on service configurations to those that best meet our communication delivery in mobile ad...resulting set of configurations randomly or apply additional 2004. screening criteria. [4] K. K. Vadde , M.-V. R. Syrotiuk, and D. C. Montgomery
Tectonic predictions with mantle convection models
Coltice, Nicolas; Shephard, Grace E.
2018-04-01
Over the past 15 yr, numerical models of convection in Earth's mantle have made a leap forward: they can now produce self-consistent plate-like behaviour at the surface together with deep mantle circulation. These digital tools provide a new window into the intimate connections between plate tectonics and mantle dynamics, and can therefore be used for tectonic predictions, in principle. This contribution explores this assumption. First, initial conditions at 30, 20, 10 and 0 Ma are generated by driving a convective flow with imposed plate velocities at the surface. We then compute instantaneous mantle flows in response to the guessed temperature fields without imposing any boundary conditions. Plate boundaries self-consistently emerge at correct locations with respect to reconstructions, except for small plates close to subduction zones. As already observed for other types of instantaneous flow calculations, the structure of the top boundary layer and upper-mantle slab is the dominant character that leads to accurate predictions of surface velocities. Perturbations of the rheological parameters have little impact on the resulting surface velocities. We then compute fully dynamic model evolution from 30 and 10 to 0 Ma, without imposing plate boundaries or plate velocities. Contrary to instantaneous calculations, errors in kinematic predictions are substantial, although the plate layout and kinematics in several areas remain consistent with the expectations for the Earth. For these calculations, varying the rheological parameters makes a difference for plate boundary evolution. Also, identified errors in initial conditions contribute to first-order kinematic errors. This experiment shows that the tectonic predictions of dynamic models over 10 My are highly sensitive to uncertainties of rheological parameters and initial temperature field in comparison to instantaneous flow calculations. Indeed, the initial conditions and the rheological parameters can be good enough
Predictive Modeling of the CDRA 4BMS
Coker, Robert F.; Knox, James C.
2016-01-01
As part of NASA's Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) program and the Life Support Systems Project (LSSP), fully predictive models of the Four Bed Molecular Sieve (4BMS) of the Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly (CDRA) on the International Space Station (ISS) are being developed. This virtual laboratory will be used to help reduce mass, power, and volume requirements for future missions. In this paper we describe current and planned modeling developments in the area of carbon dioxide removal to support future crewed Mars missions as well as the resolution of anomalies observed in the ISS CDRA.
Seo, Sang Woo; Yang, Jae-Seong; Kim, Inhae; Yang, Jina; Min, Byung Eun; Kim, Sanguk; Jung, Gyoo Yeol
2013-01-01
Precise prediction of prokaryotic translation efficiency can provide valuable information for optimizing bacterial host for the production of biochemical compounds or recombinant proteins. However, dynamic changes in mRNA folding throughout translation make it difficult to assess translation efficiency. Here, we systematically determined the universal folding regions that significantly affect the efficiency of translation in Escherichia coli. By assessing the specific regions for mRNA folding, we could construct a predictive design method, UTR Designer, and demonstrate that proper codon optimization around the 5'-proximal coding sequence is necessary to achieve a broad range of expression levels. Finally, we applied our method to control the threshold value of input signals switching on a genetic circuit. This should increase our understanding of the processes underlying gene expression and provide an efficient design principle for optimizing various biological systems, thereby facilitating future efforts in metabolic engineering and synthetic biology. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Scaling predictive modeling in drug development with cloud computing.
Moghadam, Behrooz Torabi; Alvarsson, Jonathan; Holm, Marcus; Eklund, Martin; Carlsson, Lars; Spjuth, Ola
2015-01-26
Growing data sets with increased time for analysis is hampering predictive modeling in drug discovery. Model building can be carried out on high-performance computer clusters, but these can be expensive to purchase and maintain. We have evaluated ligand-based modeling on cloud computing resources where computations are parallelized and run on the Amazon Elastic Cloud. We trained models on open data sets of varying sizes for the end points logP and Ames mutagenicity and compare with model building parallelized on a traditional high-performance computing cluster. We show that while high-performance computing results in faster model building, the use of cloud computing resources is feasible for large data sets and scales well within cloud instances. An additional advantage of cloud computing is that the costs of predictive models can be easily quantified, and a choice can be made between speed and economy. The easy access to computational resources with no up-front investments makes cloud computing an attractive alternative for scientists, especially for those without access to a supercomputer, and our study shows that it enables cost-efficient modeling of large data sets on demand within reasonable time.
Li, Jin; Tran, Maggie; Siwabessy, Justy
2016-01-01
Spatially continuous predictions of seabed hardness are important baseline environmental information for sustainable management of Australia's marine jurisdiction. Seabed hardness is often inferred from multibeam backscatter data with unknown accuracy and can be inferred from underwater video footage at limited locations. In this study, we classified the seabed into four classes based on two new seabed hardness classification schemes (i.e., hard90 and hard70). We developed optimal predictive models to predict seabed hardness using random forest (RF) based on the point data of hardness classes and spatially continuous multibeam data. Five feature selection (FS) methods that are variable importance (VI), averaged variable importance (AVI), knowledge informed AVI (KIAVI), Boruta and regularized RF (RRF) were tested based on predictive accuracy. Effects of highly correlated, important and unimportant predictors on the accuracy of RF predictive models were examined. Finally, spatial predictions generated using the most accurate models were visually examined and analysed. This study confirmed that: 1) hard90 and hard70 are effective seabed hardness classification schemes; 2) seabed hardness of four classes can be predicted with a high degree of accuracy; 3) the typical approach used to pre-select predictive variables by excluding highly correlated variables needs to be re-examined; 4) the identification of the important and unimportant predictors provides useful guidelines for further improving predictive models; 5) FS methods select the most accurate predictive model(s) instead of the most parsimonious ones, and AVI and Boruta are recommended for future studies; and 6) RF is an effective modelling method with high predictive accuracy for multi-level categorical data and can be applied to 'small p and large n' problems in environmental sciences. Additionally, automated computational programs for AVI need to be developed to increase its computational efficiency and
Li, Jin; Tran, Maggie; Siwabessy, Justy
2016-01-01
Spatially continuous predictions of seabed hardness are important baseline environmental information for sustainable management of Australia’s marine jurisdiction. Seabed hardness is often inferred from multibeam backscatter data with unknown accuracy and can be inferred from underwater video footage at limited locations. In this study, we classified the seabed into four classes based on two new seabed hardness classification schemes (i.e., hard90 and hard70). We developed optimal predictive models to predict seabed hardness using random forest (RF) based on the point data of hardness classes and spatially continuous multibeam data. Five feature selection (FS) methods that are variable importance (VI), averaged variable importance (AVI), knowledge informed AVI (KIAVI), Boruta and regularized RF (RRF) were tested based on predictive accuracy. Effects of highly correlated, important and unimportant predictors on the accuracy of RF predictive models were examined. Finally, spatial predictions generated using the most accurate models were visually examined and analysed. This study confirmed that: 1) hard90 and hard70 are effective seabed hardness classification schemes; 2) seabed hardness of four classes can be predicted with a high degree of accuracy; 3) the typical approach used to pre-select predictive variables by excluding highly correlated variables needs to be re-examined; 4) the identification of the important and unimportant predictors provides useful guidelines for further improving predictive models; 5) FS methods select the most accurate predictive model(s) instead of the most parsimonious ones, and AVI and Boruta are recommended for future studies; and 6) RF is an effective modelling method with high predictive accuracy for multi-level categorical data and can be applied to ‘small p and large n’ problems in environmental sciences. Additionally, automated computational programs for AVI need to be developed to increase its computational efficiency and
Model to evaluate the technical efficiency of university units
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marlon Soliman
2014-06-01
Full Text Available In higher education institutions, the technical efficiency has been measured by several indicators that, when used separately, does not lead to an effective conclusion about the administrative reality of these. Therefore, this paper proposes a model to evaluate the technical efficiency of university units of a higher education institution (HEI from the perspectives of Teaching, Research and Extension. The conception of the model was performed according to the pressumptions of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA, CCR model – product oriented, from the identification of relevant variables for the addressed context. The model was applied to evaluate the efficiency of nine academic units of the Federal University of Santa Maria (UFSM, obtaining as a result the efficiency of each unit as well as recommendations for the units considered inefficient. At the end of this study, it was verified that it is possible to measure the efficiency of various units and consequently establish goals for improvement based on the methodology used.
Efficient Modelling Methodology for Reconfigurable Underwater Robots
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Mikkel Cornelius; Blanke, Mogens; Schjølberg, Ingrid
2016-01-01
This paper considers the challenge of applying reconfigurable robots in an underwater environment. The main result presented is the development of a model for a system comprised of N, possibly heterogeneous, robots dynamically connected to each other and moving with 6 Degrees of Freedom (DOF......). This paper presents an application of the Udwadia-Kalaba Equation for modelling the Reconfigurable Underwater Robots. The constraints developed to enforce the rigid connection between robots in the system is derived through restrictions on relative distances and orientations. To avoid singularities...... in the orientation and, thereby, allow the robots to undertake any relative configuration the attitude is represented in Euler parameters....
Efficient modelling of a modular multilevel converter
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
El-Khatib, Walid Ziad; Holbøll, Joachim; Rasmussen, Tonny Wederberg
2013-01-01
Looking at the near future, we see that offshore wind penetration into the electrical grid will continue increasing rapidly. Until very recently, the trend has been to place the offshore wind farms close to shore within the reach for transmission using HVAC cables but for larger distances HVDC...... are calculated for the converter. Time-domain simulations on a MMC HVDC test system are performed in the PSCAD/EMTDC software environment based on the new model. The results demonstrate that the modeled MMC-HVDC system with or without converter transformer is able to operate under specific fault conditions....
Predictive Modeling by the Cerebellum Improves Proprioception
Bhanpuri, Nasir H.; Okamura, Allison M.
2013-01-01
Because sensation is delayed, real-time movement control requires not just sensing, but also predicting limb position, a function hypothesized for the cerebellum. Such cerebellar predictions could contribute to perception of limb position (i.e., proprioception), particularly when a person actively moves the limb. Here we show that human cerebellar patients have proprioceptive deficits compared with controls during active movement, but not when the arm is moved passively. Furthermore, when healthy subjects move in a force field with unpredictable dynamics, they have active proprioceptive deficits similar to cerebellar patients. Therefore, muscle activity alone is likely insufficient to enhance proprioception and predictability (i.e., an internal model of the body and environment) is important for active movement to benefit proprioception. We conclude that cerebellar patients have an active proprioceptive deficit consistent with disrupted movement prediction rather than an inability to generally enhance peripheral proprioceptive signals during action and suggest that active proprioceptive deficits should be considered a fundamental cerebellar impairment of clinical importance. PMID:24005283
Modeling mud flocculation using variable collision and breakup efficiencies
Strom, K.; Keyvani, A.
2013-12-01
Solution of the Winterwerp (1998) floc growth and breakup equation yields time dependent median floc size as an outcome of collision driven floc growth and shear induced floc breakage. The formulation is quite nice in that it is an ODE that yields fast solution for median floc size and can be incorporated into sediment transport models. The Winterwerp (1998) floc size equation was used to model floc growth and breakup data from laboratory experiments conducted under both constant and variable turbulent shear rate (Keyvani 2013). The data showed that floc growth rate starts out very high and then reduces with size to asymptotically approach an equilibrium size. In modeling the data, the Winterwerp (1998) model and the Son and Hsu (2008) variant were found to be able to capture the initial fast growth phase and the equilibrium state, but were not able to well capture the slow growing phase. This resulted in flocs reaching the equilibrium state in the models much faster than the experimental data. The objective of this work was to improve the ability of the general Winterwerp (1998) formulation to better capture the slow growth phase and more accurately predict the time to equilibrium. To do this, a full parameter sensitivity analysis was conducted using the Winterwerp (1998) model. Several modifications were tested, including the variable fractal dimension and yield strength extensions of Son and Hsu (2008, 2009). The best match with the in-house data, and data from the literature, was achieved using floc collision and breakup efficiency coefficients that decrease with floc size. The net result of the decrease in both of these coefficients is that floc growth slows without modification to the equilibrium size. Inclusion of these new functions allows for substantial improvement in modeling the growth phase of flocs in both steady and variable turbulence conditions. The improvement is particularly noticeable when modeling continual growth in a decaying turbulence field
Maintaining formal models of living guidelines efficiently
Seyfang, Andreas; Martínez-Salvador, Begoña; Serban, Radu; Wittenberg, Jolanda; Miksch, Silvia; Marcos, Mar; Ten Teije, Annette; Rosenbrand, Kitty C J G M
2007-01-01
Translating clinical guidelines into formal models is beneficial in many ways, but expensive. The progress in medical knowledge requires clinical guidelines to be updated at relatively short intervals, leading to the term living guideline. This causes potentially expensive, frequent updates of the
Prediction of Chemical Function: Model Development and ...
The United States Environmental Protection Agency’s Exposure Forecaster (ExpoCast) project is developing both statistical and mechanism-based computational models for predicting exposures to thousands of chemicals, including those in consumer products. The high-throughput (HT) screening-level exposures developed under ExpoCast can be combined with HT screening (HTS) bioactivity data for the risk-based prioritization of chemicals for further evaluation. The functional role (e.g. solvent, plasticizer, fragrance) that a chemical performs can drive both the types of products in which it is found and the concentration in which it is present and therefore impacting exposure potential. However, critical chemical use information (including functional role) is lacking for the majority of commercial chemicals for which exposure estimates are needed. A suite of machine-learning based models for classifying chemicals in terms of their likely functional roles in products based on structure were developed. This effort required collection, curation, and harmonization of publically-available data sources of chemical functional use information from government and industry bodies. Physicochemical and structure descriptor data were generated for chemicals with function data. Machine-learning classifier models for function were then built in a cross-validated manner from the descriptor/function data using the method of random forests. The models were applied to: 1) predict chemi
Gamma-Ray Pulsars Models and Predictions
Harding, A K
2001-01-01
Pulsed emission from gamma-ray pulsars originates inside the magnetosphere, from radiation by charged particles accelerated near the magnetic poles or in the outer gaps. In polar cap models, the high energy spectrum is cut off by magnetic pair production above an energy that is dependent on the local magnetic field strength. While most young pulsars with surface fields in the range B = 10^{12} - 10^{13} G are expected to have high energy cutoffs around several GeV, the gamma-ray spectra of old pulsars having lower surface fields may extend to 50 GeV. Although the gamma-ray emission of older pulsars is weaker, detecting pulsed emission at high energies from nearby sources would be an important confirmation of polar cap models. Outer gap models predict more gradual high-energy turnovers at around 10 GeV, but also predict an inverse Compton component extending to TeV energies. Detection of pulsed TeV emission, which would not survive attenuation at the polar caps, is thus an important test of outer gap models. N...
A prediction model for Clostridium difficile recurrence
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Francis D. LaBarbera
2015-02-01
Full Text Available Background: Clostridium difficile infection (CDI is a growing problem in the community and hospital setting. Its incidence has been on the rise over the past two decades, and it is quickly becoming a major concern for the health care system. High rate of recurrence is one of the major hurdles in the successful treatment of C. difficile infection. There have been few studies that have looked at patterns of recurrence. The studies currently available have shown a number of risk factors associated with C. difficile recurrence (CDR; however, there is little consensus on the impact of most of the identified risk factors. Methods: Our study was a retrospective chart review of 198 patients diagnosed with CDI via Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR from February 2009 to Jun 2013. In our study, we decided to use a machine learning algorithm called the Random Forest (RF to analyze all of the factors proposed to be associated with CDR. This model is capable of making predictions based on a large number of variables, and has outperformed numerous other models and statistical methods. Results: We came up with a model that was able to accurately predict the CDR with a sensitivity of 83.3%, specificity of 63.1%, and area under curve of 82.6%. Like other similar studies that have used the RF model, we also had very impressive results. Conclusions: We hope that in the future, machine learning algorithms, such as the RF, will see a wider application.
Artificial Neural Network Model for Predicting Compressive
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Salim T. Yousif
2013-05-01
Full Text Available Compressive strength of concrete is a commonly used criterion in evaluating concrete. Although testing of the compressive strength of concrete specimens is done routinely, it is performed on the 28th day after concrete placement. Therefore, strength estimation of concrete at early time is highly desirable. This study presents the effort in applying neural network-based system identification techniques to predict the compressive strength of concrete based on concrete mix proportions, maximum aggregate size (MAS, and slump of fresh concrete. Back-propagation neural networks model is successively developed, trained, and tested using actual data sets of concrete mix proportions gathered from literature. The test of the model by un-used data within the range of input parameters shows that the maximum absolute error for model is about 20% and 88% of the output results has absolute errors less than 10%. The parametric study shows that water/cement ratio (w/c is the most significant factor affecting the output of the model. The results showed that neural networks has strong potential as a feasible tool for predicting compressive strength of concrete.
Evaluating predictive models of software quality
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ciaschini, V; Canaparo, M; Ronchieri, E; Salomoni, D
2014-01-01
Applications from High Energy Physics scientific community are constantly growing and implemented by a large number of developers. This implies a strong churn on the code and an associated risk of faults, which is unavoidable as long as the software undergoes active evolution. However, the necessities of production systems run counter to this. Stability and predictability are of paramount importance; in addition, a short turn-around time for the defect discovery-correction-deployment cycle is required. A way to reconcile these opposite foci is to use a software quality model to obtain an approximation of the risk before releasing a program to only deliver software with a risk lower than an agreed threshold. In this article we evaluated two quality predictive models to identify the operational risk and the quality of some software products. We applied these models to the development history of several EMI packages with intent to discover the risk factor of each product and compare it with its real history. We attempted to determine if the models reasonably maps reality for the applications under evaluation, and finally we concluded suggesting directions for further studies.
A generative model for predicting terrorist incidents
Verma, Dinesh C.; Verma, Archit; Felmlee, Diane; Pearson, Gavin; Whitaker, Roger
2017-05-01
A major concern in coalition peace-support operations is the incidence of terrorist activity. In this paper, we propose a generative model for the occurrence of the terrorist incidents, and illustrate that an increase in diversity, as measured by the number of different social groups to which that an individual belongs, is inversely correlated with the likelihood of a terrorist incident in the society. A generative model is one that can predict the likelihood of events in new contexts, as opposed to statistical models which are used to predict the future incidents based on the history of the incidents in an existing context. Generative models can be useful in planning for persistent Information Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) since they allow an estimation of regions in the theater of operation where terrorist incidents may arise, and thus can be used to better allocate the assignment and deployment of ISR assets. In this paper, we present a taxonomy of terrorist incidents, identify factors related to occurrence of terrorist incidents, and provide a mathematical analysis calculating the likelihood of occurrence of terrorist incidents in three common real-life scenarios arising in peace-keeping operations
PREDICTION MODELS OF GRAIN YIELD AND CHARACTERIZATION
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Narciso Ysac Avila Serrano
2009-06-01
Full Text Available With the objective to characterize the grain yield of five cowpea cultivars and to find linear regression models to predict it, a study was developed in La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico. A complete randomized blocks design was used. Simple and multivariate analyses of variance were carried out using the canonical variables to characterize the cultivars. The variables cluster per plant, pods per plant, pods per cluster, seeds weight per plant, seeds hectoliter weight, 100-seed weight, seeds length, seeds wide, seeds thickness, pods length, pods wide, pods weight, seeds per pods, and seeds weight per pods, showed significant differences (Pâ‰¤ 0.05 among cultivars. PaceÃ±o and IT90K-277-2 cultivars showed the higher seeds weight per plant. The linear regression models showed correlation coefficients â‰¥0.92. In these models, the seeds weight per plant, pods per cluster, pods per plant, cluster per plant and pods length showed significant correlations (Pâ‰¤ 0.05. In conclusion, the results showed that grain yield differ among cultivars and for its estimation, the prediction models showed determination coefficients highly dependable.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mahlia, T.M.I.
2004-01-01
There are many papers that have been published on energy efficiency standards and labels. However, a very limited number of articles on the subject have discussed the transformation of appliance energy efficiency in the market after the programs are implemented. This paper is an attempt to investigate the market transformation due to implementation of minimum energy efficiency standards and energy labels. Even though the paper only investigates room air conditioners as a case study, the method is also applicable for predicting market transformation for other household electrical appliances
An Efficient Virtual Trachea Deformation Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Cui Tong
2016-01-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we present a virtual tactile model with the physically based skeleton to simulate force and deformation between a rigid tool and the soft organ. When the virtual trachea is handled, a skeleton model suitable for interactive environments is established, which consists of ligament layers, cartilage rings and muscular bars. In this skeleton, the contact force goes through the ligament layer, and produces the load effects of the joints , which are connecting the ligament layer and cartilage rings. Due to the nonlinear shape deformation inside the local neighbourhood of a contact region, the RBF method is applied to modify the result of linear global shape deformation by adding the nonlinear effect inside. Users are able to handle the virtual trachea, and the results from the examples with the mechanical properties of the human trachea are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach.
Caffò, Alessandro O; Lopez, Antonella; Spano, Giuseppina; Saracino, Giuseppe; Stasolla, Fabrizio; Ciriello, Giuseppe; Grattagliano, Ignazio; Lancioni, Giulio E; Bosco, Andrea
2016-12-01
Models of cognitive reserve in aging suggest that individual's life experience (education, working activity, and leisure) can exert a neuroprotective effect against cognitive decline and may represent an important contribution to successful aging. The objective of the present study is to investigate the role of cognitive reserve, pre-morbid intelligence, age, and education level, in predicting cognitive efficiency in a sample of healthy aged individuals and with probable mild cognitive impairment. Two hundred and eight aging participants recruited from the provincial region of Bari (Apulia, Italy) took part in the study. A battery of standardized tests was administered to them to measure cognitive reserve, pre-morbid intelligence, and cognitive efficiency. Protocols for 10 participants were excluded since they did not meet inclusion criteria, and statistical analyses were conducted on data from the remaining 198 participants. A path analysis was used to test the following model: age, education level, and intelligence directly influence cognitive reserve and cognitive efficiency; cognitive reserve mediates the influence of age, education level, and intelligence on cognitive efficiency. Cognitive reserve fully mediates the relationship between pre-morbid intelligence and education level and cognitive efficiency, while age maintains a direct effect on cognitive efficiency. Cognitive reserve appears to exert a protective effect regarding cognitive decline in normal and pathological populations, thus masking, at least in the early phases of neurodegeneration, the decline of memory, orientation, attention, language, and reasoning skills. The assessment of cognitive reserve may represent a useful evaluation supplement in neuropsychological screening protocols of cognitive decline.
Predictive Models for Normal Fetal Cardiac Structures.
Krishnan, Anita; Pike, Jodi I; McCarter, Robert; Fulgium, Amanda L; Wilson, Emmanuel; Donofrio, Mary T; Sable, Craig A
2016-12-01
Clinicians rely on age- and size-specific measures of cardiac structures to diagnose cardiac disease. No universally accepted normative data exist for fetal cardiac structures, and most fetal cardiac centers do not use the same standards. The aim of this study was to derive predictive models for Z scores for 13 commonly evaluated fetal cardiac structures using a large heterogeneous population of fetuses without structural cardiac defects. The study used archived normal fetal echocardiograms in representative fetuses aged 12 to 39 weeks. Thirteen cardiac dimensions were remeasured by a blinded echocardiographer from digitally stored clips. Studies with inadequate imaging views were excluded. Regression models were developed to relate each dimension to estimated gestational age (EGA) by dates, biparietal diameter, femur length, and estimated fetal weight by the Hadlock formula. Dimension outcomes were transformed (e.g., using the logarithm or square root) as necessary to meet the normality assumption. Higher order terms, quadratic or cubic, were added as needed to improve model fit. Information criteria and adjusted R 2 values were used to guide final model selection. Each Z-score equation is based on measurements derived from 296 to 414 unique fetuses. EGA yielded the best predictive model for the majority of dimensions; adjusted R 2 values ranged from 0.72 to 0.893. However, each of the other highly correlated (r > 0.94) biometric parameters was an acceptable surrogate for EGA. In most cases, the best fitting model included squared and cubic terms to introduce curvilinearity. For each dimension, models based on EGA provided the best fit for determining normal measurements of fetal cardiac structures. Nevertheless, other biometric parameters, including femur length, biparietal diameter, and estimated fetal weight provided results that were nearly as good. Comprehensive Z-score results are available on the basis of highly predictive models derived from gestational
Investigating market efficiency through a forecasting model based on differential equations
de Resende, Charlene C.; Pereira, Adriano C. M.; Cardoso, Rodrigo T. N.; de Magalhães, A. R. Bosco
2017-05-01
A new differential equation based model for stock price trend forecast is proposed as a tool to investigate efficiency in an emerging market. Its predictive power showed statistically to be higher than the one of a completely random model, signaling towards the presence of arbitrage opportunities. Conditions for accuracy to be enhanced are investigated, and application of the model as part of a trading strategy is discussed.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fang, Xiande; Xu, Yu
2011-01-01
The empirical model of turbine efficiency is necessary for the control- and/or diagnosis-oriented simulation and useful for the simulation and analysis of dynamic performances of the turbine equipment and systems, such as air cycle refrigeration systems, power plants, turbine engines, and turbochargers. Existing empirical models of turbine efficiency are insufficient because there is no suitable form available for air cycle refrigeration turbines. This work performs a critical review of empirical models (called mean value models in some literature) of turbine efficiency and develops an empirical model in the desired form for air cycle refrigeration, the dominant cooling approach in aircraft environmental control systems. The Taylor series and regression analysis are used to build the model, with the Taylor series being used to expand functions with the polytropic exponent and the regression analysis to finalize the model. The measured data of a turbocharger turbine and two air cycle refrigeration turbines are used for the regression analysis. The proposed model is compact and able to present the turbine efficiency map. Its predictions agree with the measured data very well, with the corrected coefficient of determination R c 2 ≥ 0.96 and the mean absolute percentage deviation = 1.19% for the three turbines. -- Highlights: → Performed a critical review of empirical models of turbine efficiency. → Developed an empirical model in the desired form for air cycle refrigeration, using the Taylor expansion and regression analysis. → Verified the method for developing the empirical model. → Verified the model.
An analytical model for climatic predictions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Njau, E.C.
1990-12-01
A climatic model based upon analytical expressions is presented. This model is capable of making long-range predictions of heat energy variations on regional or global scales. These variations can then be transformed into corresponding variations of some other key climatic parameters since weather and climatic changes are basically driven by differential heating and cooling around the earth. On the basis of the mathematical expressions upon which the model is based, it is shown that the global heat energy structure (and hence the associated climatic system) are characterized by zonally as well as latitudinally propagating fluctuations at frequencies downward of 0.5 day -1 . We have calculated the propagation speeds for those particular frequencies that are well documented in the literature. The calculated speeds are in excellent agreement with the measured speeds. (author). 13 refs
An Anisotropic Hardening Model for Springback Prediction
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zeng, Danielle; Xia, Z. Cedric
2005-01-01
As more Advanced High-Strength Steels (AHSS) are heavily used for automotive body structures and closures panels, accurate springback prediction for these components becomes more challenging because of their rapid hardening characteristics and ability to sustain even higher stresses. In this paper, a modified Mroz hardening model is proposed to capture realistic Bauschinger effect at reverse loading, such as when material passes through die radii or drawbead during sheet metal forming process. This model accounts for material anisotropic yield surface and nonlinear isotropic/kinematic hardening behavior. Material tension/compression test data are used to accurately represent Bauschinger effect. The effectiveness of the model is demonstrated by comparison of numerical and experimental springback results for a DP600 straight U-channel test
Energy Efficient Wireless Sensor Network Modelling Based on Complex Networks
Xiao, Lin; Wu, Fahui; Yang, Dingcheng; Zhang, Tiankui; Zhu, Xiaoya
2016-01-01
The power consumption and energy efficiency of wireless sensor network are the significant problems in Internet of Things network. In this paper, we consider the network topology optimization based on complex network theory to solve the energy efficiency problem of WSN. We propose the energy efficient model of WSN according to the basic principle of small world from complex networks. Small world network has clustering features that are similar to that of the rules of the network but also has ...
Computationally efficient models of neuromuscular recruitment and mechanics
Song, D.; Raphael, G.; Lan, N.; Loeb, G. E.
2008-06-01
We have improved the stability and computational efficiency of a physiologically realistic, virtual muscle (VM 3.*) model (Cheng et al 2000 J. Neurosci. Methods 101 117-30) by a simpler structure of lumped fiber types and a novel recruitment algorithm. In the new version (VM 4.0), the mathematical equations are reformulated into state-space representation and structured into a CMEX S-function in SIMULINK. A continuous recruitment scheme approximates the discrete recruitment of slow and fast motor units under physiological conditions. This makes it possible to predict force output during smooth recruitment and derecruitment without having to simulate explicitly a large number of independently recruited units. We removed the intermediate state variable, effective length (Leff), which had been introduced to model the delayed length dependency of the activation-frequency relationship, but which had little effect and could introduce instability under physiological conditions of use. Both of these changes greatly reduce the number of state variables with little loss of accuracy compared to the original VM. The performance of VM 4.0 was validated by comparison with VM 3.1.5 for both single-muscle force production and a multi-joint task. The improved VM 4.0 model is more suitable for the analysis of neural control of movements and for design of prosthetic systems to restore lost or impaired motor functions. VM 4.0 is available via the internet and includes options to use the original VM model, which remains useful for detailed simulations of single motor unit behavior.
Nonconvex Model Predictive Control for Commercial Refrigeration
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hovgaard, Tobias Gybel; Larsen, Lars F.S.; Jørgensen, John Bagterp
2013-01-01
function, however, is nonconvex due to the temperature dependence of thermodynamic efficiency. To handle this nonconvexity we propose a sequential convex optimization method, which typically converges in fewer than 5 or so iterations. We employ a fast convex quadratic programming solver to carry out...... the iterations, which is more than fast enough to run in real-time. We demonstrate our method on a realistic model, with a full year simulation and 15 minute time periods, using historical electricity prices and weather data, as well as random variations in thermal load. These simulations show substantial cost...... capacity associated with large penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources in a future smart grid....
Web tools for predictive toxicology model building.
Jeliazkova, Nina
2012-07-01
The development and use of web tools in chemistry has accumulated more than 15 years of history already. Powered by the advances in the Internet technologies, the current generation of web systems are starting to expand into areas, traditional for desktop applications. The web platforms integrate data storage, cheminformatics and data analysis tools. The ease of use and the collaborative potential of the web is compelling, despite the challenges. The topic of this review is a set of recently published web tools that facilitate predictive toxicology model building. The focus is on software platforms, offering web access to chemical structure-based methods, although some of the frameworks could also provide bioinformatics or hybrid data analysis functionalities. A number of historical and current developments are cited. In order to provide comparable assessment, the following characteristics are considered: support for workflows, descriptor calculations, visualization, modeling algorithms, data management and data sharing capabilities, availability of GUI or programmatic access and implementation details. The success of the Web is largely due to its highly decentralized, yet sufficiently interoperable model for information access. The expected future convergence between cheminformatics and bioinformatics databases provides new challenges toward management and analysis of large data sets. The web tools in predictive toxicology will likely continue to evolve toward the right mix of flexibility, performance, scalability, interoperability, sets of unique features offered, friendly user interfaces, programmatic access for advanced users, platform independence, results reproducibility, curation and crowdsourcing utilities, collaborative sharing and secure access.
[Endometrial cancer: Predictive models and clinical impact].
Bendifallah, Sofiane; Ballester, Marcos; Daraï, Emile
2017-12-01
In France, in 2015, endometrial cancer (CE) is the first gynecological cancer in terms of incidence and the fourth cause of cancer of the woman. About 8151 new cases and nearly 2179 deaths have been reported. Treatments (surgery, external radiotherapy, brachytherapy and chemotherapy) are currently delivered on the basis of an estimation of the recurrence risk, an estimation of lymph node metastasis or an estimate of survival probability. This risk is determined on the basis of prognostic factors (clinical, histological, imaging, biological) taken alone or grouped together in the form of classification systems, which are currently insufficient to account for the evolutionary and prognostic heterogeneity of endometrial cancer. For endometrial cancer, the concept of mathematical modeling and its application to prediction have developed in recent years. These biomathematical tools have opened a new era of care oriented towards the promotion of targeted therapies and personalized treatments. Many predictive models have been published to estimate the risk of recurrence and lymph node metastasis, but a tiny fraction of them is sufficiently relevant and of clinical utility. The optimization tracks are multiple and varied, suggesting the possibility in the near future of a place for these mathematical models. The development of high-throughput genomics is likely to offer a more detailed molecular characterization of the disease and its heterogeneity. Copyright © 2017 Société Française du Cancer. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.
Vries, D; Wols, B.A.; de Voogt, P.
2013-01-01
The efficiency of water treatment systems in removing emerging (chemical) substances is often unknown. Consequently, the prediction of the removal of contaminants in the treatment and supply chain of drinking water is of great interest. By collecting and processing existing chemical properties of
Frontier models for evaluating environmental efficiency: an overview
Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Wall, A.
2014-01-01
Our aim in this paper is to provide a succinct overview of frontier-based models used to evaluate environmental efficiency, with a special emphasis on agricultural activity. We begin by providing a brief, up-to-date review of the main approaches used to measure environmental efficiency, with
Predictive Capability Maturity Model for computational modeling and simulation.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Oberkampf, William Louis; Trucano, Timothy Guy; Pilch, Martin M.
2007-10-01
The Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) is a new model that can be used to assess the level of maturity of computational modeling and simulation (M&S) efforts. The development of the model is based on both the authors experience and their analysis of similar investigations in the past. The perspective taken in this report is one of judging the usefulness of a predictive capability that relies on the numerical solution to partial differential equations to better inform and improve decision making. The review of past investigations, such as the Software Engineering Institute's Capability Maturity Model Integration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Department of Defense Technology Readiness Levels, indicates that a more restricted, more interpretable method is needed to assess the maturity of an M&S effort. The PCMM addresses six contributing elements to M&S: (1) representation and geometric fidelity, (2) physics and material model fidelity, (3) code verification, (4) solution verification, (5) model validation, and (6) uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. For each of these elements, attributes are identified that characterize four increasing levels of maturity. Importantly, the PCMM is a structured method for assessing the maturity of an M&S effort that is directed toward an engineering application of interest. The PCMM does not assess whether the M&S effort, the accuracy of the predictions, or the performance of the engineering system satisfies or does not satisfy specified application requirements.
Predictions of models for environmental radiological assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Peres, Sueli da Silva; Lauria, Dejanira da Costa; Mahler, Claudio Fernando
2011-01-01
In the field of environmental impact assessment, models are used for estimating source term, environmental dispersion and transfer of radionuclides, exposure pathway, radiation dose and the risk for human beings Although it is recognized that the specific information of local data are important to improve the quality of the dose assessment results, in fact obtaining it can be very difficult and expensive. Sources of uncertainties are numerous, among which we can cite: the subjectivity of modelers, exposure scenarios and pathways, used codes and general parameters. The various models available utilize different mathematical approaches with different complexities that can result in different predictions. Thus, for the same inputs different models can produce very different outputs. This paper presents briefly the main advances in the field of environmental radiological assessment that aim to improve the reliability of the models used in the assessment of environmental radiological impact. The intercomparison exercise of model supplied incompatible results for 137 Cs and 60 Co, enhancing the need for developing reference methodologies for environmental radiological assessment that allow to confront dose estimations in a common comparison base. The results of the intercomparison exercise are present briefly. (author)
Evaluation of Deep Learning Models for Predicting CO2 Flux
Halem, M.; Nguyen, P.; Frankel, D.
2017-12-01
Artificial neural networks have been employed to calculate surface flux measurements from station data because they are able to fit highly nonlinear relations between input and output variables without knowing the detail relationships between the variables. However, the accuracy in performing neural net estimates of CO2 flux from observations of CO2 and other atmospheric variables is influenced by the architecture of the neural model, the availability, and complexity of interactions between physical variables such as wind, temperature, and indirect variables like latent heat, and sensible heat, etc. We evaluate two deep learning models, feed forward and recurrent neural network models to learn how they each respond to the physical measurements, time dependency of the measurements of CO2 concentration, humidity, pressure, temperature, wind speed etc. for predicting the CO2 flux. In this paper, we focus on a) building neural network models for estimating CO2 flux based on DOE data from tower Atmospheric Radiation Measurement data; b) evaluating the impact of choosing the surface variables and model hyper-parameters on the accuracy and predictions of surface flux; c) assessing the applicability of the neural network models on estimate CO2 flux by using OCO-2 satellite data; d) studying the efficiency of using GPU-acceleration for neural network performance using IBM Power AI deep learning software and packages on IBM Minsky system.
Automated Irrigation System using Weather Prediction for Efficient Usage of Water Resources
Susmitha, A.; Alakananda, T.; Apoorva, M. L.; Ramesh, T. K.
2017-08-01
In agriculture the major problem which farmers face is the water scarcity, so to improve the usage of water one of the irrigation system using drip irrigation which is implemented is “Automated irrigation system with partition facility for effective irrigation of small scale farms” (AISPF). But this method has some drawbacks which can be improved and here we are with a method called “Automated irrigation system using weather prediction for efficient usage of water resources’ (AISWP), it solves the shortcomings of AISPF process. AISWP method helps us to use the available water resources more efficiently by sensing the moisture present in the soil and apart from that it is actually predicting the weather by sensing two parameters temperature and humidity thereby processing the measured values through an algorithm and releasing the water accordingly which is an added feature of AISWP so that water can be efficiently used.
Efficient Accommodation of Local Minima in Watershed Model Calibration
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Skahill, Brian E; Doherty, John
2006-01-01
.... Nevertheless, the method also has advantages, chief among these being its model-run efficiency, and its ability to report useful information on parameter sensitivities and covariances as a by-product of its use...
Block factorization of step response model predictive control problems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kufoalor, D. K.M.; Frison, Gianluca; Imsland, L.
2017-01-01
implemented in the HPMPC framework, and the performance is evaluated through simulation studies. The results confirm that a computationally fast controller is achieved, compared to the traditional step response MPC scheme that relies on an explicit prediction formulation. Moreover, the tailored condensing......By introducing a stage-wise prediction formulation that enables the use of highly efficient quadratic programming (QP) solution methods, this paper expands the computational toolbox for solving step response MPC problems. We propose a novel MPC scheme that is able to incorporate step response data...... algorithm exhibits superior performance and produces solution times comparable to that achieved when using a condensing scheme for an equivalent (but much smaller) state-space model derived from first-principles. Implementation aspects necessary for high performance on embedded platforms are discussed...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sergio A. Alvarado
2010-12-01
Full Text Available Objetivo: Evaluar la eficiencia predictiva de modelos estadísticos paramétricos y no paramétricos para predecir episodios críticos de contaminación por material particulado PM10 del día siguiente, que superen en Santiago de Chile la norma de calidad diaria. Una predicción adecuada de tales episodios permite a la autoridad decretar medidas restrictivas que aminoren la gravedad del episodio, y consecuentemente proteger la salud de la comunidad. Método: Se trabajó con las concentraciones de material particulado PM10 registradas en una estación asociada a la red de monitorización de la calidad del aire MACAM-2, considerando 152 observaciones diarias de 14 variables, y con información meteorológica registrada durante los años 2001 a 2004. Se ajustaron modelos estadísticos paramétricos Gamma usando el paquete estadístico STATA v11, y no paramétricos usando una demo del software estadístico MARS v 2.0 distribuida por Salford-Systems. Resultados: Ambos métodos de modelación presentan una alta correlación entre los valores observados y los predichos. Los modelos Gamma presentan mejores aciertos que MARS para las concentraciones de PM10 con valores Objective: To evaluate the predictive efficiency of two statistical models (one parametric and the other non-parametric to predict critical episodes of air pollution exceeding daily air quality standards in Santiago, Chile by using the next day PM10 maximum 24h value. Accurate prediction of such episodes would allow restrictive measures to be applied by health authorities to reduce their seriousness and protect the community´s health. Methods: We used the PM10 concentrations registered by a station of the Air Quality Monitoring Network (152 daily observations of 14 variables and meteorological information gathered from 2001 to 2004. To construct predictive models, we fitted a parametric Gamma model using STATA v11 software and a non-parametric MARS model by using a demo version of Salford
Effect on Prediction when Modeling Covariates in Bayesian Nonparametric Models.
Cruz-Marcelo, Alejandro; Rosner, Gary L; Müller, Peter; Stewart, Clinton F
2013-04-01
In biomedical research, it is often of interest to characterize biologic processes giving rise to observations and to make predictions of future observations. Bayesian nonparametric methods provide a means for carrying out Bayesian inference making as few assumptions about restrictive parametric models as possible. There are several proposals in the literature for extending Bayesian nonparametric models to include dependence on covariates. Limited attention, however, has been directed to the following two aspects. In this article, we examine the effect on fitting and predictive performance of incorporating covariates in a class of Bayesian nonparametric models by one of two primary ways: either in the weights or in the locations of a discrete random probability measure. We show that different strategies for incorporating continuous covariates in Bayesian nonparametric models can result in big differences when used for prediction, even though they lead to otherwise similar posterior inferences. When one needs the predictive density, as in optimal design, and this density is a mixture, it is better to make the weights depend on the covariates. We demonstrate these points via a simulated data example and in an application in which one wants to determine the optimal dose of an anticancer drug used in pediatric oncology.
A Coupled Probabilistic Wake Vortex and Aircraft Response Prediction Model
Gloudemans, Thijs; Van Lochem, Sander; Ras, Eelco; Malissa, Joel; Ahmad, Nashat N.; Lewis, Timothy A.
2016-01-01
Wake vortex spacing standards along with weather and runway occupancy time, restrict terminal area throughput and impose major constraints on the overall capacity and efficiency of the National Airspace System (NAS). For more than two decades, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has been conducting research on characterizing wake vortex behavior in order to develop fast-time wake transport and decay prediction models. It is expected that the models can be used in the systems level design of advanced air traffic management (ATM) concepts that safely increase the capacity of the NAS. It is also envisioned that at a later stage of maturity, these models could potentially be used operationally, in groundbased spacing and scheduling systems as well as on the flight deck.
Explicit Nonlinear Model Predictive Control Theory and Applications
Grancharova, Alexandra
2012-01-01
Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (NMPC) has become the accepted methodology to solve complex control problems related to process industries. The main motivation behind explicit NMPC is that an explicit state feedback law avoids the need for executing a numerical optimization algorithm in real time. The benefits of an explicit solution, in addition to the efficient on-line computations, include also verifiability of the implementation and the possibility to design embedded control systems with low software and hardware complexity. This book considers the multi-parametric Nonlinear Programming (mp-NLP) approaches to explicit approximate NMPC of constrained nonlinear systems, developed by the authors, as well as their applications to various NMPC problem formulations and several case studies. The following types of nonlinear systems are considered, resulting in different NMPC problem formulations: Ø Nonlinear systems described by first-principles models and nonlinear systems described by black-box models; �...
Relative efficiency of precision medicine designs for clinical trials with predictive biomarkers.
Shih, Weichung Joe; Lin, Yong
2018-02-28
Prospective randomized clinical trials addressing biomarkers are time consuming and costly, but are necessary for regulatory agencies to approve new therapies with predictive biomarkers. For this reason, recently, there have been many discussions and proposals of various trial designs and comparisons of their efficiency in the literature. We compare statistical efficiencies between the marker-stratified design and the marker-based precision medicine design regarding testing/estimating 4 hypotheses/parameters of clinical interest, namely, treatment effects in each marker-positive and marker-negative cohorts, marker-by-treatment interaction, and the marker's clinical utility. As may be expected, the stratified design is more efficient than the precision medicine design. However, it is perhaps surprising to find out how low the relative efficiency can be for the precision medicine design. We quantify the relative efficiency as a function of design factors including the marker-positive prevalence rate, marker assay and classification sensitivity and specificity, and the treatment randomization ratio. It is interesting to examine the trends of the relative efficiency with these design parameters in testing different hypotheses. We advocate to use the stratified design over the precision medicine design in clinical trials with predictive biomarkers. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Michael J. Pelosi
2014-12-01
Full Text Available Development teams and programmers must retain critical information about their work during work intervals and gaps in order to improve future performance when work resumes. Despite time lapses, project managers want to maximize coding efficiency and effectiveness. By developing a mathematically justified, practically useful, and computationally tractable quantitative and cognitive model of learning and memory retention, this study establishes calculations designed to maximize scheduling payoff and optimize developer efficiency and effectiveness.
Semiparametric Efficient Adaptive Estimation of the PTTGARCH model
Ciccarelli, Nicola
2016-01-01
Financial data sets exhibit conditional heteroskedasticity and asymmetric volatility. In this paper we derive a semiparametric efficient adaptive estimator of a conditional heteroskedasticity and asymmetric volatility GARCH-type model (i.e., the PTTGARCH(1,1) model). Via kernel density estimation of the unknown density function of the innovation and via the Newton-Raphson technique applied on the root-n-consistent quasi-maximum likelihood estimator, we construct a more efficient estimator tha...
Evaluating Energy Efficiency Policies with Energy-Economy Models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mundaca, Luis; Neij, Lena; Worrell, Ernst; McNeil, Michael A.
2010-08-01
The growing complexities of energy systems, environmental problems and technology markets are driving and testing most energy-economy models to their limits. To further advance bottom-up models from a multidisciplinary energy efficiency policy evaluation perspective, we review and critically analyse bottom-up energy-economy models and corresponding evaluation studies on energy efficiency policies to induce technological change. We use the household sector as a case study. Our analysis focuses on decision frameworks for technology choice, type of evaluation being carried out, treatment of market and behavioural failures, evaluated policy instruments, and key determinants used to mimic policy instruments. Although the review confirms criticism related to energy-economy models (e.g. unrealistic representation of decision-making by consumers when choosing technologies), they provide valuable guidance for policy evaluation related to energy efficiency. Different areas to further advance models remain open, particularly related to modelling issues, techno-economic and environmental aspects, behavioural determinants, and policy considerations.
Combining GPS measurements and IRI model predictions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hernandez-Pajares, M.; Juan, J.M.; Sanz, J.; Bilitza, D.
2002-01-01
The free electrons distributed in the ionosphere (between one hundred and thousands of km in height) produce a frequency-dependent effect on Global Positioning System (GPS) signals: a delay in the pseudo-orange and an advance in the carrier phase. These effects are proportional to the columnar electron density between the satellite and receiver, i.e. the integrated electron density along the ray path. Global ionospheric TEC (total electron content) maps can be obtained with GPS data from a network of ground IGS (international GPS service) reference stations with an accuracy of few TEC units. The comparison with the TOPEX TEC, mainly measured over the oceans far from the IGS stations, shows a mean bias and standard deviation of about 2 and 5 TECUs respectively. The discrepancies between the STEC predictions and the observed values show an RMS typically below 5 TECUs (which also includes the alignment code noise). he existence of a growing database 2-hourly global TEC maps and with resolution of 5x2.5 degrees in longitude and latitude can be used to improve the IRI prediction capability of the TEC. When the IRI predictions and the GPS estimations are compared for a three month period around the Solar Maximum, they are in good agreement for middle latitudes. An over-determination of IRI TEC has been found at the extreme latitudes, the IRI predictions being, typically two times higher than the GPS estimations. Finally, local fits of the IRI model can be done by tuning the SSN from STEC GPS observations
Model Predictive Control-Based Fast Charging for Vehicular Batteries
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhibin Song
2011-08-01
Full Text Available Battery fast charging is one of the most significant and difficult techniques affecting the commercialization of electric vehicles (EVs. In this paper, we propose a fast charge framework based on model predictive control, with the aim of simultaneously reducing the charge duration, which represents the out-of-service time of vehicles, and the increase in temperature, which represents safety and energy efficiency during the charge process. The RC model is employed to predict the future State of Charge (SOC. A single mode lumped-parameter thermal model and a neural network trained by real experimental data are also applied to predict the future temperature in simulations and experiments respectively. A genetic algorithm is then applied to find the best charge sequence under a specified fitness function, which consists of two objectives: minimizing the charging duration and minimizing the increase in temperature. Both simulation and experiment demonstrate that the Pareto front of the proposed method dominates that of the most popular constant current constant voltage (CCCV charge method.
Mathematical models for indoor radon prediction
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Malanca, A.; Pessina, V.; Dallara, G.
1995-01-01
It is known that the indoor radon (Rn) concentration can be predicted by means of mathematical models. The simplest model relies on two variables only: the Rn source strength and the air exchange rate. In the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) model several environmental parameters are combined into a complex equation; besides, a correlation between the ventilation rate and the Rn entry rate from the soil is admitted. The measurements were carried out using activated carbon canisters. Seventy-five measurements of Rn concentrations were made inside two rooms placed on the second floor of a building block. One of the rooms had a single-glazed window whereas the other room had a double pane window. During three different experimental protocols, the mean Rn concentration was always higher into the room with a double-glazed window. That behavior can be accounted for by the simplest model. A further set of 450 Rn measurements was collected inside a ground-floor room with a grounding well in it. This trend maybe accounted for by the LBL model
A Predictive Maintenance Model for Railway Tracks
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Li, Rui; Wen, Min; Salling, Kim Bang
2015-01-01
presents a mathematical model based on Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) which is designed to optimize the predictive railway tamping activities for ballasted track for the time horizon up to four years. The objective function is setup to minimize the actual costs for the tamping machine (measured by time......). Five technical and economic aspects are taken into account to schedule tamping: (1) track degradation of the standard deviation of the longitudinal level over time; (2) track geometrical alignment; (3) track quality thresholds based on the train speed limits; (4) the dependency of the track quality...... recovery on the track quality after tamping operation and (5) Tamping machine operation factors. A Danish railway track between Odense and Fredericia with 57.2 km of length is applied for a time period of two to four years in the proposed maintenance model. The total cost can be reduced with up to 50...
Bargaje, Rhishikesh; Trachana, Kalliopi; Shelton, Martin N; McGinnis, Christopher S; Zhou, Joseph X; Chadick, Cora; Cook, Savannah; Cavanaugh, Christopher; Huang, Sui; Hood, Leroy
2017-02-28
Steering the differentiation of induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) toward specific cell types is crucial for patient-specific disease modeling and drug testing. This effort requires the capacity to predict and control when and how multipotent progenitor cells commit to the desired cell fate. Cell fate commitment represents a critical state transition or "tipping point" at which complex systems undergo a sudden qualitative shift. To characterize such transitions during iPSC to cardiomyocyte differentiation, we analyzed the gene expression patterns of 96 developmental genes at single-cell resolution. We identified a bifurcation event early in the trajectory when a primitive streak-like cell population segregated into the mesodermal and endodermal lineages. Before this branching point, we could detect the signature of an imminent critical transition: increase in cell heterogeneity and coordination of gene expression. Correlation analysis of gene expression profiles at the tipping point indicates transcription factors that drive the state transition toward each alternative cell fate and their relationships with specific phenotypic readouts. The latter helps us to facilitate small molecule screening for differentiation efficiency. To this end, we set up an analysis of cell population structure at the tipping point after systematic variation of the protocol to bias the differentiation toward mesodermal or endodermal cell lineage. We were able to predict the proportion of cardiomyocytes many days before cells manifest the differentiated phenotype. The analysis of cell populations undergoing a critical state transition thus affords a tool to forecast cell fate outcomes and can be used to optimize differentiation protocols to obtain desired cell populations.
An Operational Model for the Prediction of Jet Blast
2012-01-09
This paper presents an operational model for the prediction of jet blast. The model was : developed based upon three modules including a jet exhaust model, jet centerline decay : model and aircraft motion model. The final analysis was compared with d...
Energetics and efficiency of a molecular motor model
Fogedby, Hans C.; Svane, Axel
2013-01-01
The energetics and efficiency of a linear molecular motor model proposed by Mogilner et al. (Phys. Lett. 237, 297 (1998)) is analyzed from an analytical point of view. The model which is based on protein friction with a track is described by coupled Langevin equations for the motion in combination with coupled master equations for the ATP hydrolysis. Here the energetics and efficiency of the motor is addressed using a many body scheme with focus on the efficiency at maximum power (EMP). It is...
Modeling of Methods to Control Heat-Consumption Efficiency
Tsynaeva, E. A.; Tsynaeva, A. A.
2016-11-01
In this work, consideration has been given to thermophysical processes in automated heat consumption control systems (AHCCSs) of buildings, flow diagrams of these systems, and mathematical models describing the thermophysical processes during the systems' operation; an analysis of adequacy of the mathematical models has been presented. A comparison has been made of the operating efficiency of the systems and the methods to control the efficiency. It has been determined that the operating efficiency of an AHCCS depends on its diagram and the temperature chart of central quality control (CQC) and also on the temperature of a low-grade heat source for the system with a heat pump.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Jørgensen, Sten Bay
2007-01-01
A Prediction-error-method tailored for model based predictive control is presented. The prediction-error method studied are based on predictions using the Kalman filter and Kalman predictors for a linear discrete-time stochastic state space model. The linear discrete-time stochastic state space...... model is realized from a continuous-discrete-time linear stochastic system specified using transfer functions with time-delays. It is argued that the prediction-error criterion should be selected such that it is compatible with the objective function of the predictive controller in which the model...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Golden Makaka
2015-01-01
Full Text Available With the increase in energy consumption by buildings in keeping the indoor environment within the comfort levels and the ever increase of energy price there is need to design buildings that require minimal energy to keep the indoor environment within the comfort levels. There is need to predict the indoor temperature during the design stage. In this paper a statistical indoor temperature prediction model was developed. A passive solar house was constructed; thermal behaviour was simulated using ECOTECT and DOE computer software. The thermal behaviour of the house was monitored for a year. The indoor temperature was observed to be in the comfort level for 85% of the total time monitored. The simulation results were compared with the measured results and those from the prediction model. The statistical prediction model was found to agree (95% with the measured results. Simulation results were observed to agree (96% with the statistical prediction model. Modeled indoor temperature was most sensitive to the outdoor temperatures variations. The daily mean peak ones were found to be more pronounced in summer (5% than in winter (4%. The developed model can be used to predict the instantaneous indoor temperature for a specific house design.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kaminski, K. P.; Sørensen, Kirsten Kørup; Kristensen, Kristian
2015-01-01
experiments in 2010. Two offspring groups according to pWUE and wpWUE were identified on the basis of experiments conducted in 2010, which in experiments in 2011 again showed significant differences in pWUE (46 %, P rate...... (34 %) and dry matter accumulation (55 %, P rate (-4 %, no significant difference) or whole-plant water use (16 %). The pWUE correlated negatively to the ratio between leaf-internal and leaf-external [CO2] (R2 = -0.86 in 2010 and R2 = -0.83 in 2011, P ....001). The leaf chlorophyll content was lower in the high-WUE group indicating that the higher net photosynthesis rate was not due to higher leaf-N status. Less negative value of carbon isotope discrimination (δ13C) in the high-WUE group was only found in 2011. A modified Ball-Berry model was fitted to measured...
Trend modelling of wave parameters and application in onboard prediction of ship responses
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Montazeri, Najmeh; Nielsen, Ulrik Dam; Jensen, J. Juncher
2015-01-01
This paper presents a trend analysis for prediction of sea state parameters onboard shipsduring voyages. Given those parameters, a JONSWAP model and also the transfer functions, prediction of wave induced ship responses are thus made. The procedure is tested with full-scale data of an in-service...... container ship. Comparison between predictions and the actual measurements, implies a good agreementin general. This method can be an efficient way to improve decision support on board ships....
Predictive modeling: potential application in prevention services.
Wilson, Moira L; Tumen, Sarah; Ota, Rissa; Simmers, Anthony G
2015-05-01
In 2012, the New Zealand Government announced a proposal to introduce predictive risk models (PRMs) to help professionals identify and assess children at risk of abuse or neglect as part of a preventive early intervention strategy, subject to further feasibility study and trialing. The purpose of this study is to examine technical feasibility and predictive validity of the proposal, focusing on a PRM that would draw on population-wide linked administrative data to identify newborn children who are at high priority for intensive preventive services. Data analysis was conducted in 2013 based on data collected in 2000-2012. A PRM was developed using data for children born in 2010 and externally validated for children born in 2007, examining outcomes to age 5 years. Performance of the PRM in predicting administratively recorded substantiations of maltreatment was good compared to the performance of other tools reviewed in the literature, both overall, and for indigenous Māori children. Some, but not all, of the children who go on to have recorded substantiations of maltreatment could be identified early using PRMs. PRMs should be considered as a potential complement to, rather than a replacement for, professional judgment. Trials are needed to establish whether risks can be mitigated and PRMs can make a positive contribution to frontline practice, engagement in preventive services, and outcomes for children. Deciding whether to proceed to trial requires balancing a range of considerations, including ethical and privacy risks and the risk of compounding surveillance bias. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Bock, Michael; Lyndall, Jennifer; Barber, Timothy; Fuchsman, Phyllis; Perruchon, Elyse; Capdevielle, Marie
2010-10-01
The fate and partitioning of the antimicrobial compound, triclosan, in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) is evaluated using a probabilistic fugacity model to predict the range of triclosan concentrations in effluent and secondary biosolids. The WWTP model predicts 84% to 92% triclosan removal, which is within the range of measured removal efficiencies (typically 70% to 98%). Triclosan is predominantly removed by sorption and subsequent settling of organic particulates during primary treatment and by aerobic biodegradation during secondary treatment. Median modeled removal efficiency due to sorption is 40% for all treatment phases and 31% in the primary treatment phase. Median modeled removal efficiency due to biodegradation is 48% for all treatment phases and 44% in the secondary treatment phase. Important factors contributing to variation in predicted triclosan concentrations in effluent and biosolids include influent concentrations, solids concentrations in settling tanks, and factors related to solids retention time. Measured triclosan concentrations in biosolids and non-United States (US) effluent are consistent with model predictions. However, median concentrations in US effluent are over-predicted with this model, suggesting that differences in some aspect of treatment practices not incorporated in the model (e.g., disinfection methods) may affect triclosan removal from effluent. Model applications include predicting changes in environmental loadings associated with new triclosan applications and supporting risk analyses for biosolids-amended land and effluent receiving waters. © 2010 SETAC.
Probabilistic application of a fugacity model to predict triclosan fate during wastewater treatment.
Bock, Michael; Lyndall, Jennifer; Barber, Timothy; Fuchsman, Phyllis; Perruchon, Elyse; Capdevielle, Marie
2010-07-01
The fate and partitioning of the antimicrobial compound, triclosan, in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) is evaluated using a probabilistic fugacity model to predict the range of triclosan concentrations in effluent and secondary biosolids. The WWTP model predicts 84% to 92% triclosan removal, which is within the range of measured removal efficiencies (typically 70% to 98%). Triclosan is predominantly removed by sorption and subsequent settling of organic particulates during primary treatment and by aerobic biodegradation during secondary treatment. Median modeled removal efficiency due to sorption is 40% for all treatment phases and 31% in the primary treatment phase. Median modeled removal efficiency due to biodegradation is 48% for all treatment phases and 44% in the secondary treatment phase. Important factors contributing to variation in predicted triclosan concentrations in effluent and biosolids include influent concentrations, solids concentrations in settling tanks, and factors related to solids retention time. Measured triclosan concentrations in biosolids and non-United States (US) effluent are consistent with model predictions. However, median concentrations in US effluent are over-predicted with this model, suggesting that differences in some aspect of treatment practices not incorporated in the model (e.g., disinfection methods) may affect triclosan removal from effluent. Model applications include predicting changes in environmental loadings associated with new triclosan applications and supporting risk analyses for biosolids-amended land and effluent receiving waters. (c) 2010 SETAC.
Supplementary Material for: DASPfind: new efficient method to predict drug–target interactions
Ba Alawi, Wail
2016-01-01
Abstract Background Identification of novel drug–target interactions (DTIs) is important for drug discovery. Experimental determination of such DTIs is costly and time consuming, hence it necessitates the development of efficient computational methods for the accurate prediction of potential DTIs. To-date, many computational methods have been proposed for this purpose, but they suffer the drawback of a high rate of false positive predictions. Results Here, we developed a novel computational DTI prediction method, DASPfind. DASPfind uses simple paths of particular lengths inferred from a graph that describes DTIs, similarities between drugs, and similarities between the protein targets of drugs. We show that on average, over the four gold standard DTI datasets, DASPfind significantly outperforms other existing methods when the single top-ranked predictions are considered, resulting in 46.17 % of these predictions being correct, and it achieves 49.22 % correct single top ranked predictions when the set of all DTIs for a single drug is tested. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our method is best suited for predicting DTIs in cases of drugs with no known targets or with few known targets. We also show the practical use of DASPfind by generating novel predictions for the Ion Channel dataset and validating them manually. Conclusions DASPfind is a computational method for finding reliable new interactions between drugs and proteins. We show over six different DTI datasets that DASPfind outperforms other state-of-the-art methods when the single top-ranked predictions are considered, or when a drug with no known targets or with few known targets is considered. We illustrate the usefulness and practicality of DASPfind by predicting novel DTIs for the Ion Channel dataset. The validated predictions suggest that DASPfind can be used as an efficient method to identify correct DTIs, thus reducing the cost of necessary experimental verifications in the process of drug discovery
Building predictive models of soil particle-size distribution
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alessandro Samuel-Rosa
2013-04-01
Full Text Available Is it possible to build predictive models (PMs of soil particle-size distribution (psd in a region with complex geology and a young and unstable land-surface? The main objective of this study was to answer this question. A set of 339 soil samples from a small slope catchment in Southern Brazil was used to build PMs of psd in the surface soil layer. Multiple linear regression models were constructed using terrain attributes (elevation, slope, catchment area, convergence index, and topographic wetness index. The PMs explained more than half of the data variance. This performance is similar to (or even better than that of the conventional soil mapping approach. For some size fractions, the PM performance can reach 70 %. Largest uncertainties were observed in geologically more complex areas. Therefore, significant improvements in the predictions can only be achieved if accurate geological data is made available. Meanwhile, PMs built on terrain attributes are efficient in predicting the particle-size distribution (psd of soils in regions of complex geology.
Is the Langevin phase equation an efficient model for oscillating neurons?
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ota, Keisuke; Tsunoda, Takamasa; Aonishi, Toru; Omori, Toshiaki; Okada, Masato; Watanabe, Shigeo; Miyakawa, Hiroyoshi
2009-01-01
The Langevin phase model is an important canonical model for capturing coherent oscillations of neural populations. However, little attention has been given to verifying its applicability. In this paper, we demonstrate that the Langevin phase equation is an efficient model for neural oscillators by using the machine learning method in two steps: (a) Learning of the Langevin phase model. We estimated the parameters of the Langevin phase equation, i.e., a phase response curve and the intensity of white noise from physiological data measured in the hippocampal CA1 pyramidal neurons. (b) Test of the estimated model. We verified whether a Fokker-Planck equation derived from the Langevin phase equation with the estimated parameters could capture the stochastic oscillatory behavior of the same neurons disturbed by periodic perturbations. The estimated model could predict the neural behavior, so we can say that the Langevin phase equation is an efficient model for oscillating neurons.
Heuristic Modeling for TRMM Lifetime Predictions
Jordan, P. S.; Sharer, P. J.; DeFazio, R. L.
1996-01-01
Analysis time for computing the expected mission lifetimes of proposed frequently maneuvering, tightly altitude constrained, Earth orbiting spacecraft have been significantly reduced by means of a heuristic modeling method implemented in a commercial-off-the-shelf spreadsheet product (QuattroPro) running on a personal computer (PC). The method uses a look-up table to estimate the maneuver frequency per month as a function of the spacecraft ballistic coefficient and the solar flux index, then computes the associated fuel use by a simple engine model. Maneuver frequency data points are produced by means of a single 1-month run of traditional mission analysis software for each of the 12 to 25 data points required for the table. As the data point computations are required only a mission design start-up and on the occasion of significant mission redesigns, the dependence on time consuming traditional modeling methods is dramatically reduced. Results to date have agreed with traditional methods to within 1 to 1.5 percent. The spreadsheet approach is applicable to a wide variety of Earth orbiting spacecraft with tight altitude constraints. It will be particularly useful to such missions as the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission scheduled for launch in 1997, whose mission lifetime calculations are heavily dependent on frequently revised solar flux predictions.
Evaluation of discrete modeling efficiency of asynchronous electric machines
Byczkowska-Lipińska, Liliana; Stakhiv, Petro; Hoholyuk, Oksana; Vasylchyshyn, Ivanna
2011-01-01
In the paper the problem of effective mathematical macromodels in the form of state variables intended for asynchronous motor transient analysis is considered. Their comparing with traditional mathematical models of asynchronous motors including models built into MATLAB/Simulink software was carried out and analysis of their efficiency was conducted.
Distributed model predictive control made easy
Negenborn, Rudy
2014-01-01
The rapid evolution of computer science, communication, and information technology has enabled the application of control techniques to systems beyond the possibilities of control theory just a decade ago. Critical infrastructures such as electricity, water, traffic and intermodal transport networks are now in the scope of control engineers. The sheer size of such large-scale systems requires the adoption of advanced distributed control approaches. Distributed model predictive control (MPC) is one of the promising control methodologies for control of such systems. This book provides a state-of-the-art overview of distributed MPC approaches, while at the same time making clear directions of research that deserve more attention. The core and rationale of 35 approaches are carefully explained. Moreover, detailed step-by-step algorithmic descriptions of each approach are provided. These features make the book a comprehensive guide both for those seeking an introduction to distributed MPC as well as for those ...
Energy technologies and energy efficiency in economic modelling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik
1998-01-01
This paper discusses different approaches to incorporating energy technologies and technological development in energy-economic models. Technological development is a very important issue in long-term energy demand projections and in environmental analyses. Different assumptions on technological...... technological development. This paper examines the effect on aggregate energy efficiency of using technological models to describe a number of specific technologies and of incorporating these models in an economic model. Different effects from the technology representation are illustrated. Vintage effects...... illustrates the dependence of average efficiencies and productivity on capacity utilisation rates. In the long run regulation induced by environmental policies are also very important for the improvement of aggregate energy efficiency in the energy supply sector. A Danish policy to increase the share...
Tollenaar, N.; van der Heijden, P.G.M.
2012-01-01
Using criminal population conviction histories of recent offenders, prediction mod els are developed that predict three types of criminal recidivism: general recidivism, violent recidivism and sexual recidivism. The research question is whether prediction techniques from modern statistics, data mining and machine learning provide an improvement in predictive performance over classical statistical methods, namely logistic regression and linear discrim inant analysis. These models are compared ...
Hussain, S.; Brennan, C.
2017-07-01
This paper presents an efficient ray tracing algorithm for propagation prediction in urban environments. The work presented in this paper builds upon previous work in which the maximum coverage area where rays can propagate after interaction with a wall or vertical edge is described by a lit polygon. The shadow regions formed by buildings within the lit polygon are described by shadow polygons. In this paper, the lit polygons of images are mapped to a coarse grid superimposed over the coverage area. This mapping reduces the active image tree significantly for a given receiver point to accelerate the ray finding process. The algorithm also presents an efficient method of quickly determining the valid ray segments for a mobile receiver moving along a linear trajectory. The validation results show considerable computation time reduction with good agreement between the simulated and measured data for propagation prediction in large urban environments.
A Review of Hemolysis Prediction Models for Computational Fluid Dynamics.
Yu, Hai; Engel, Sebastian; Janiga, Gábor; Thévenin, Dominique
2017-07-01
Flow-induced hemolysis is a crucial issue for many biomedical applications; in particular, it is an essential issue for the development of blood-transporting devices such as left ventricular assist devices, and other types of blood pumps. In order to estimate red blood cell (RBC) damage in blood flows, many models have been proposed in the past. Most models have been validated by their respective authors. However, the accuracy and the validity range of these models remains unclear. In this work, the most established hemolysis models compatible with computational fluid dynamics of full-scale devices are described and assessed by comparing two selected reference experiments: a simple rheometric flow and a more complex hemodialytic flow through a needle. The quantitative comparisons show very large deviations concerning hemolysis predictions, depending on the model and model parameter. In light of the current results, two simple power-law models deliver the best compromise between computational efficiency and obtained accuracy. Finally, hemolysis has been computed in an axial blood pump. The reconstructed geometry of a HeartMate II shows that hemolysis occurs mainly at the tip and leading edge of the rotor blades, as well as at the leading edge of the diffusor vanes. © 2017 International Center for Artificial Organs and Transplantation and Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Loss-efficiency model of single and variable-speed compressors using neural networks
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Yang, Liang [Institute of Refrigeration and Cryogenics, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200240 (China); China R and D Center, Carrier Corporation, No.3239 Shen Jiang Road, Shanghai 201206 (China); Zhao, Ling-Xiao; Gu, Bo [Institute of Refrigeration and Cryogenics, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200240 (China); Zhang, Chun-Lu [China R and D Center, Carrier Corporation, No.3239 Shen Jiang Road, Shanghai 201206 (China)
2009-09-15
Compressor is the critical component to the performance of a vapor-compression refrigeration system. The loss-efficiency model including the volumetric efficiency and the isentropic efficiency is widely used for representing the compressor performance. A neural network loss-efficiency model is developed to simulate the performance of positive displacement compressors like the reciprocating, screw and scroll compressors. With one more input, frequency, it can be easily extended to the variable speed compressors. The three-layer polynomial perceptron network is developed because the polynomial transfer function is found very effective in training and free of over-learning. The selection of input parameters of neural networks is also found critical to the network prediction accuracy. The proposed neural networks give less than 0.4% standard deviations and {+-}1.3% maximum deviations against the manufacturer data. (author)
Testing DEA Models of Efficiency in Norwegian Psychiatric Outpatient Clinics
Kittelsen, Sverre A.C.; Magnussen, Jon
2009-01-01
While measures of output in mental health care are even harder to find than in other health care activities, some indicators are available. In modelling productive efficiency the problem is to select the output variables that best reflect the use of resources, in the sense that these variables have a significant impact on measures of efficiency. The paper analyses cross-sectional data on the psychiatric outpatient clinics of Norway using the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) non-parametric effi...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zengjian Wang
2016-11-01
Full Text Available Biological motion perception (BMP is a vivid perception of the moving form of a human figure from a few light points on the joints of the body. BMP is commonplace and important, but there is great inter-individual variability in this ability. This study used multiple regression model analysis to explore the association between the BMP performance and intrinsic brain activity, in order to investigate the neural substrates underlying inter-individual variability of BMP performance. The resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI and BMP performance data were collected from 24 healthy participants. For each participant, the intrinsic brain network was constructed, and a graph-based network efficiency metric was measured. Then, a multiple linear regression model was used to explore the association between network regional efficiency and BMP performance. We found that the local and global network efficiency of many regions was significantly correlated with the BMP performance. Further analysis showed that the local efficiency rather than global efficiency could be used to explain most of the BMP inter-individual variability, and the regions involved were predominately located at the Default Mode Network (DMN. Additionally, the discrimination analysis showed that the local efficiency over regions including thalamus could be used to classify BMP performance across participants. Notably, the association pattern between the network nodal efficiency and the BMP was different from the association pattern that of the static directional/gender information perception. Overall, these findings showed that intrinsic brain network efficiency may be considered as a neural factor that explains BMP inter-individual variability. Keywords: Biological motion; Resting-state network; Network efficiency; Multiple linear regression model; Brain-behavior analysis
Sieve Tray Efficiency using CFD Modeling and Simulation | Gesit ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
In this work, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models are developed and used to predict sieve tray hydrodynamics and mass transfer. The models consider the three-dimensional two-phase flow of vapor (or gas) and liquid in which each phase is treated as an interpenetrating continuum having separate transport ...
An Efficiency Model For Hydrogen Production In A Pressurized Electrolyzer
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Smoglie, Cecilia; Lauretta, Ricardo
2010-09-15
The use of Hydrogen as clean fuel at a world wide scale requires the development of simple, safe and efficient production and storage technologies. In this work, a methodology is proposed to produce Hydrogen and Oxygen in a self pressurized electrolyzer connected to separate containers that store each of these gases. A mathematical model for Hydrogen production efficiency is proposed to evaluate how such efficiency is affected by parasitic currents in the electrolytic solution. Experimental set-up and results for an electrolyzer are also presented. Comparison of empirical and analytical results shows good agreement.
Fuzzy predictive filtering in nonlinear economic model predictive control for demand response
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Santos, Rui Mirra; Zong, Yi; Sousa, Joao M. C.
2016-01-01
The performance of a model predictive controller (MPC) is highly correlated with the model's accuracy. This paper introduces an economic model predictive control (EMPC) scheme based on a nonlinear model, which uses a branch-and-bound tree search for solving the inherent non-convex optimization...
Functional Testing Protocols for Commercial Building Efficiency Baseline Modeling Software
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jump, David; Price, Phillip N.; Granderson, Jessica; Sohn, Michael
2013-09-06
This document describes procedures for testing and validating proprietary baseline energy modeling software accuracy in predicting energy use over the period of interest, such as a month or a year. The procedures are designed according to the methodology used for public domain baselining software in another LBNL report that was (like the present report) prepared for Pacific Gas and Electric Company: ?Commercial Building Energy Baseline Modeling Software: Performance Metrics and Method Testing with Open Source Models and Implications for Proprietary Software Testing Protocols? (referred to here as the ?Model Analysis Report?). The test procedure focuses on the quality of the software?s predictions rather than on the specific algorithms used to predict energy use. In this way the software vendor is not required to divulge or share proprietary information about how their software works, while enabling stakeholders to assess its performance.
Cross-Layer Modeling Framework for Energy-Efficient Resilience
2014-04-01
Kevin Skadron##, Gu-Yeon Wei+ * IBM T. J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, NY ** IBM Austin Research Laboratory, Austin, TX +Dept. of...Qute model developed at IBM Research [3]. The first two are both developed around basic analytical formalisms based on Amdahl’s Law. Qute is an...Modeling Strategy Figure 1 depicts the integrated, cross-layer system modeling concept as pursued in the IBM -led project titled: “Efficient
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
W. L. Silva
2008-09-01
Full Text Available The reduction efficiency is an important variable during the black liquor burning process in the Kraft recovery boiler. This variable value is obtained by slow experimental routines and the delay of this measure disturbs the pulp and paper industry customary control. This paper describes an optimization approach for the reduction efficiency determination in the furnace bottom of the recovery boiler based on the minimization of the Gibbs free energy. The industrial data used in this study were directly obtained from CENIBRA's data acquisition system. The resulting approach is able to predict the steady state behavior of the chemical composition of the furnace recovery boiler, - especially the reduction efficiency when different operational conditions are used. This result confirms the potential of this approach in the analysis of the daily operation of the recovery boiler.
Hu, Xiaoyu; Kong, Xian; Lu, Diannan; Wu, Jianzhong
2018-02-01
The classical density functional theory is incorporated with the Stokes equation to examine the thermodynamic efficiency of pressure-driven electrokinetic energy conversion in slit nanochannels. Different from previous mean-field predictions, but in good agreement with recent experiments, the molecular theory indicates that the thermodynamic efficiency may not be linearly correlated with the channel size or the electrolyte concentration. For a given electrolyte, an optimal slit nanochannel size and ion concentration can be identified to maximize both the electrical current and the thermodynamic efficiency. The optimal conditions are sensitive to a large number of parameters including ion diameters, valences, electrolyte concentration, channel size, and the valence- and size-asymmetry of oppositely charged ionic species. The theoretical results offer fresh insights into pressure-driven current generation processes and are helpful guidelines for the design of apparatus for the electrokinetic energy conversion.
Atlas : A library for numerical weather prediction and climate modelling
Deconinck, Willem; Bauer, Peter; Diamantakis, Michail; Hamrud, Mats; Kühnlein, Christian; Maciel, Pedro; Mengaldo, Gianmarco; Quintino, Tiago; Raoult, Baudouin; Smolarkiewicz, Piotr K.; Wedi, Nils P.
2017-11-01
The algorithms underlying numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models that have been developed in the past few decades face an increasing challenge caused by the paradigm shift imposed by hardware vendors towards more energy-efficient devices. In order to provide a sustainable path to exascale High Performance Computing (HPC), applications become increasingly restricted by energy consumption. As a result, the emerging diverse and complex hardware solutions have a large impact on the programming models traditionally used in NWP software, triggering a rethink of design choices for future massively parallel software frameworks. In this paper, we present Atlas, a new software library that is currently being developed at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), with the scope of handling data structures required for NWP applications in a flexible and massively parallel way. Atlas provides a versatile framework for the future development of efficient NWP and climate applications on emerging HPC architectures. The applications range from full Earth system models, to specific tools required for post-processing weather forecast products. The Atlas library thus constitutes a step towards affordable exascale high-performance simulations by providing the necessary abstractions that facilitate the application in heterogeneous HPC environments by promoting the co-design of NWP algorithms with the underlying hardware.
Tsai, Yun-Jeng; Li, Min-Hui; Tsai, Wan-Jung; Tuan, Sheng-Hui; Liao, Tin-Yun; Lin, Ko-Long
2016-07-01
Oxygen uptake efficiency slope (OUES) and peak oxygen consumption (VO2peak) are exercise parameters that can predict cardiac morbidity in patients with numerous heart diseases. But the predictive value in patients with tetralogy of Fallot is still undetermined, especially in children. We evaluated the prognostic value of OUES and VO2peak in children with total repair of tetralogy of Fallot. Retrospective cohort study. Forty tetralogy of Fallot patients younger than 12 years old were recruited. They underwent a cardiopulmonary exercise test during the follow-up period after total repair surgery. The results of the cardiopulmonary exercise test were used to predict the cardiac related hospitalization in the following two years after the test. OUES normalized by body surface area (OUES/BSA) and the percentage of predicted VO2peak appeared to be predictive for two-year cardiac related hospitalization. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis demonstrated that the best threshold value for OUES/BSA was 1.029 (area under the curve = 0.70, p = 0.03), and for VO2peak was 74% of age prediction (area under the curve = 0.72, p = 0.02). The aforementioned findings were confirmed by Kaplan-Meier plots and log-rank test. OUES/BSA and VO2peak are useful predictors of cardiac-related hospitalization in children with total repair of tetralogy of Fallot. © The European Society of Cardiology 2015.
REALIGNED MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL OF A PROPYLENE DISTILLATION COLUMN
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. I. Hinojosa
Full Text Available Abstract In the process industry, advanced controllers usually aim at an economic objective, which usually requires closed-loop stability and constraints satisfaction. In this paper, the application of a MPC in the optimization structure of an industrial Propylene/Propane (PP splitter is tested with a controller based on a state space model, which is suitable for heavily disturbed environments. The simulation platform is based on the integration of the commercial dynamic simulator Dynsim® and the rigorous steady-state optimizer ROMeo® with the real-time facilities of Matlab. The predictive controller is the Infinite Horizon Model Predictive Control (IHMPC, based on a state-space model that that does not require the use of a state observer because the non-minimum state is built with the past inputs and outputs. The controller considers the existence of zone control of the outputs and optimizing targets for the inputs. We verify that the controller is efficient to control the propylene distillation system in a disturbed scenario when compared with a conventional controller based on a state observer. The simulation results show a good performance in terms of stability of the controller and rejection of large disturbances in the composition of the feed of the propylene distillation column.
Akman, Olcay; Hallam, Joshua W.
2010-01-01
We implement genetic algorithm based predictive model building as an alternative to the traditional stepwise regression. We then employ the Information Complexity Measure (ICOMP) as a measure of model fitness instead of the commonly used measure of R-square. Furthermore, we propose some modifications to the genetic algorithm to increase the overall efficiency. PMID:20661297
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Olcay Akman
2010-07-01
Full Text Available We implement genetic algorithm based predictive model building as an alternative to the traditional stepwise regression. We then employ the Information Complexity Measure (ICOMP as a measure of model fitness instead of the commonly used measure of R-square. Furthermore, we propose some modifications to the genetic algorithm to increase the overall efficiency.
Modeling and energy efficiency optimization of belt conveyors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang, Shirong; Xia, Xiaohua
2011-01-01
Highlights: → We take optimization approach to improve operation efficiency of belt conveyors. → An analytical energy model, originating from ISO 5048, is proposed. → Then an off-line and an on-line parameter estimation schemes are investigated. → In a case study, six optimization problems are formulated with solutions in simulation. - Abstract: The improvement of the energy efficiency of belt conveyor systems can be achieved at equipment and operation levels. Specifically, variable speed control, an equipment level intervention, is recommended to improve operation efficiency of belt conveyors. However, the current implementations mostly focus on lower level control loops without operational considerations at the system level. This paper intends to take a model based optimization approach to improve the efficiency of belt conveyors at the operational level. An analytical energy model, originating from ISO 5048, is firstly proposed, which lumps all the parameters into four coefficients. Subsequently, both an off-line and an on-line parameter estimation schemes are applied to identify the new energy model, respectively. Simulation results are presented for the estimates of the four coefficients. Finally, optimization is done to achieve the best operation efficiency of belt conveyors under various constraints. Six optimization problems of a typical belt conveyor system are formulated, respectively, with solutions in simulation for a case study.
Model for predicting mountain wave field uncertainties
Damiens, Florentin; Lott, François; Millet, Christophe; Plougonven, Riwal
2017-04-01
Studying the propagation of acoustic waves throughout troposphere requires knowledge of wind speed and temperature gradients from the ground up to about 10-20 km. Typical planetary boundary layers flows are known to present vertical low level shears that can interact with mountain waves, thereby triggering small-scale disturbances. Resolving these fluctuations for long-range propagation problems is, however, not feasible because of computer memory/time restrictions and thus, they need to be parameterized. When the disturbances are small enough, these fluctuations can be described by linear equations. Previous works by co-authors have shown that the critical layer dynamics that occur near the ground produces large horizontal flows and buoyancy disturbances that result in intense downslope winds and gravity wave breaking. While these phenomena manifest almost systematically for high Richardson numbers and when the boundary layer depth is relatively small compare to the mountain height, the process by which static stability affects downslope winds remains unclear. In the present work, new linear mountain gravity wave solutions are tested against numerical predictions obtained with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. For Richardson numbers typically larger than unity, the mesoscale model is used to quantify the effect of neglected nonlinear terms on downslope winds and mountain wave patterns. At these regimes, the large downslope winds transport warm air, a so called "Foehn" effect than can impact sound propagation properties. The sensitivity of small-scale disturbances to Richardson number is quantified using two-dimensional spectral analysis. It is shown through a pilot study of subgrid scale fluctuations of boundary layer flows over realistic mountains that the cross-spectrum of mountain wave field is made up of the same components found in WRF simulations. The impact of each individual component on acoustic wave propagation is discussed in terms of
Olayan, Rawan S.
2017-11-23
Motivation Finding computationally drug-target interactions (DTIs) is a convenient strategy to identify new DTIs at low cost with reasonable accuracy. However, the current DTI prediction methods suffer the high false positive prediction rate. Results We developed DDR, a novel method that improves the DTI prediction accuracy. DDR is based on the use of a heterogeneous graph that contains known DTIs with multiple similarities between drugs and multiple similarities between target proteins. DDR applies non-linear similarity fusion method to combine different similarities. Before fusion, DDR performs a pre-processing step where a subset of similarities is selected in a heuristic process to obtain an optimized combination of similarities. Then, DDR applies a random forest model using different graph-based features extracted from the DTI heterogeneous graph. Using five repeats of 10-fold cross-validation, three testing setups, and the weighted average of area under the precision-recall curve (AUPR) scores, we show that DDR significantly reduces the AUPR score error relative to the next best start-of-the-art method for predicting DTIs by 34% when the drugs are new, by 23% when targets are new, and by 34% when the drugs and the targets are known but not all DTIs between them are not known. Using independent sources of evidence, we verify as correct 22 out of the top 25 DDR novel predictions. This suggests that DDR can be used as an efficient method to identify correct DTIs.
Triedman, John K.; Jolley, Matthew; Stinstra, Jeroen; Brooks, Dana H.; MacLeod, Rob
2008-01-01
ICD implants may be complicated by body size and anatomy. One approach to this problem has been the adoption of creative, extracardiac implant strategies using standard ICD components. Because data on safety or efficacy of such ad hoc implant strategies is lacking, we have developed image-based finite element models (FEMs) to compare electric fields and expected defibrillation thresholds (DFTs) using standard and novel electrode locations. In this paper, we review recently published studies by our group using such models, and progress in meshing strategies to improve efficiency and visualization. Our preliminary observations predict that they may be large changes in DFTs with clinically relevant variations of electrode placement. Extracardiac ICDs of various lead configurations are predicted to be effective in both children and adults. This approach may aid both ICD development and patient-specific optimization of electrode placement, but the simplified nature of current models dictates further development and validation prior to clinical or industrial utilization. PMID:18817926
Model Predictive Control for an Industrial SAG Mill
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ohan, Valeriu; Steinke, Florian; Metzger, Michael
2012-01-01
We discuss Model Predictive Control (MPC) based on ARX models and a simple lower order disturbance model. The advantage of this MPC formulation is that it has few tuning parameters and is based on an ARX prediction model that can readily be identied using standard technologies from system identic...
Uncertainties in spatially aggregated predictions from a logistic regression model
Horssen, P.W. van; Pebesma, E.J.; Schot, P.P.
2002-01-01
This paper presents a method to assess the uncertainty of an ecological spatial prediction model which is based on logistic regression models, using data from the interpolation of explanatory predictor variables. The spatial predictions are presented as approximate 95% prediction intervals. The
Dealing with missing predictor values when applying clinical prediction models.
Janssen, K.J.; Vergouwe, Y.; Donders, A.R.T.; Harrell Jr, F.E.; Chen, Q.; Grobbee, D.E.; Moons, K.G.
2009-01-01
BACKGROUND: Prediction models combine patient characteristics and test results to predict the presence of a disease or the occurrence of an event in the future. In the event that test results (predictor) are unavailable, a strategy is needed to help users applying a prediction model to deal with
Energy Efficient Wireless Sensor Network Modelling Based on Complex Networks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lin Xiao
2016-01-01
Full Text Available The power consumption and energy efficiency of wireless sensor network are the significant problems in Internet of Things network. In this paper, we consider the network topology optimization based on complex network theory to solve the energy efficiency problem of WSN. We propose the energy efficient model of WSN according to the basic principle of small world from complex networks. Small world network has clustering features that are similar to that of the rules of the network but also has similarity to random networks of small average path length. It can be utilized to optimize the energy efficiency of the whole network. Optimal number of multiple sink nodes of the WSN topology is proposed for optimizing energy efficiency. Then, the hierarchical clustering analysis is applied to implement this clustering of the sensor nodes and pick up the sink nodes from the sensor nodes as the clustering head. Meanwhile, the update method is proposed to determine the sink node when the death of certain sink node happened which can cause the paralysis of network. Simulation results verify the energy efficiency of the proposed model and validate the updating of the sink nodes to ensure the normal operation of the WSN.
A ranking efficiency unit by restrictions using DEA models
Arsad, Roslah; Abdullah, Mohammad Nasir; Alias, Suriana
2014-12-01
In this paper, a comparison regarding the efficiency shares of listed companies in Bursa Malaysia was made, through the application of estimation method of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). In this study, DEA is used to measure efficiency shares of listed companies in Bursa Malaysia in terms of the financial performance. It is believed that only good financial performer will give a good return to the investors in the long run. The main objectives were to compute the relative efficiency scores of the shares in Bursa Malaysia and rank the shares based on Balance Index with regard to relative efficiency. The methods of analysis using Alirezaee and Afsharian's model were employed to this study; where the originality of Charnes, Cooper and Rhode model (CCR) with assumption of constant return to scale (CRS) still holds. This method of ranking relative efficiency of decision making units (DMUs) was value-added by using Balance Index. From the result, the companies that were recommended for investors based on ranking were NATWIDE, YTL and MUDA. These companies were the top three efficient companies with good performance in 2011 whereas in 2012 the top three companies were NATWIDE, MUDA and BERNAS.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jing Lu
2014-11-01
Full Text Available We propose a weather prediction model in this article based on neural network and fuzzy inference system (NFIS-WPM, and then apply it to predict daily fuzzy precipitation given meteorological premises for testing. The model consists of two parts: the first part is the “fuzzy rule-based neural network”, which simulates sequential relations among fuzzy sets using artificial neural network; and the second part is the “neural fuzzy inference system”, which is based on the first part, but could learn new fuzzy rules from the previous ones according to the algorithm we proposed. NFIS-WPM (High Pro and NFIS-WPM (Ave are improved versions of this model. It is well known that the need for accurate weather prediction is apparent when considering the benefits. However, the excessive pursuit of accuracy in weather prediction makes some of the “accurate” prediction results meaningless and the numerical prediction model is often complex and time-consuming. By adapting this novel model to a precipitation prediction problem, we make the predicted outcomes of precipitation more accurate and the prediction methods simpler than by using the complex numerical forecasting model that would occupy large computation resources, be time-consuming and which has a low predictive accuracy rate. Accordingly, we achieve more accurate predictive precipitation results than by using traditional artificial neural networks that have low predictive accuracy.
Foundation Settlement Prediction Based on a Novel NGM Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Peng-Yu Chen
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Prediction of foundation or subgrade settlement is very important during engineering construction. According to the fact that there are lots of settlement-time sequences with a nonhomogeneous index trend, a novel grey forecasting model called NGM (1,1,k,c model is proposed in this paper. With an optimized whitenization differential equation, the proposed NGM (1,1,k,c model has the property of white exponential law coincidence and can predict a pure nonhomogeneous index sequence precisely. We used two case studies to verify the predictive effect of NGM (1,1,k,c model for settlement prediction. The results show that this model can achieve excellent prediction accuracy; thus, the model is quite suitable for simulation and prediction of approximate nonhomogeneous index sequence and has excellent application value in settlement prediction.
Predictive capabilities of various constitutive models for arterial tissue.
Schroeder, Florian; Polzer, Stanislav; Slažanský, Martin; Man, Vojtěch; Skácel, Pavel
2018-02-01
Aim of this study is to validate some constitutive models by assessing their capabilities in describing and predicting uniaxial and biaxial behavior of porcine aortic tissue. 14 samples from porcine aortas were used to perform 2 uniaxial and 5 biaxial tensile tests. Transversal strains were furthermore stored for uniaxial data. The experimental data were fitted by four constitutive models: Holzapfel-Gasser-Ogden model (HGO), model based on generalized structure tensor (GST), Four-Fiber-Family model (FFF) and Microfiber model. Fitting was performed to uniaxial and biaxial data sets separately and descriptive capabilities of the models were compared. Their predictive capabilities were assessed in two ways. Firstly each model was fitted to biaxial data and its accuracy (in term of R 2 and NRMSE) in prediction of both uniaxial responses was evaluated. Then this procedure was performed conversely: each model was fitted to both uniaxial tests and its accuracy in prediction of 5 biaxial responses was observed. Descriptive capabilities of all models were excellent. In predicting uniaxial response from biaxial data, microfiber model was the most accurate while the other models showed also reasonable accuracy. Microfiber and FFF models were capable to reasonably predict biaxial responses from uniaxial data while HGO and GST models failed completely in this task. HGO and GST models are not capable to predict biaxial arterial wall behavior while FFF model is the most robust of the investigated constitutive models. Knowledge of transversal strains in uniaxial tests improves robustness of constitutive models. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Mohamed, Omar; Wang, Jihong; Khalil, Ashraf; Limhabrash, Marwan
2016-01-01
This paper presents a novel strategy for implementing model predictive control (MPC) to a large gas turbine power plant as a part of our research progress in order to improve plant thermal efficiency and load-frequency control performance. A generalized state space model for a large gas turbine covering the whole steady operational range is designed according to subspace identification method with closed loop data as input to the identification algorithm. Then the model is used in developing a MPC and integrated into the plant existing control strategy. The strategy principle is based on feeding the reference signals of the pilot valve, natural gas valve, and the compressor pressure ratio controller with the optimized decisions given by the MPC instead of direct application of the control signals. If the set points for the compressor controller and turbine valves are sent in a timely manner, there will be more kinetic energy in the plant to release faster responses on the output and the overall system efficiency is improved. Simulation results have illustrated the feasibility of the proposed application that has achieved significant improvement in the frequency variations and load following capability which are also translated to be improvements in the overall combined cycle thermal efficiency of around 1.1 % compared to the existing one.
Comparing National Water Model Inundation Predictions with Hydrodynamic Modeling
Egbert, R. J.; Shastry, A.; Aristizabal, F.; Luo, C.
2017-12-01
The National Water Model (NWM) simulates the hydrologic cycle and produces streamflow forecasts, runoff, and other variables for 2.7 million reaches along the National Hydrography Dataset for the continental United States. NWM applies Muskingum-Cunge channel routing which is based on the continuity equation. However, the momentum equation also needs to be considered to obtain better estimates of streamflow and stage in rivers especially for applications such as flood inundation mapping. Simulation Program for River NeTworks (SPRNT) is a fully dynamic model for large scale river networks that solves the full nonlinear Saint-Venant equations for 1D flow and stage height in river channel networks with non-uniform bathymetry. For the current work, the steady-state version of the SPRNT model was leveraged. An evaluation on SPRNT's and NWM's abilities to predict inundation was conducted for the record flood of Hurricane Matthew in October 2016 along the Neuse River in North Carolina. This event was known to have been influenced by backwater effects from the Hurricane's storm surge. Retrospective NWM discharge predictions were converted to stage using synthetic rating curves. The stages from both models were utilized to produce flood inundation maps using the Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND) method which uses the local relative heights to provide a spatial representation of inundation depths. In order to validate the inundation produced by the models, Sentinel-1A synthetic aperture radar data in the VV and VH polarizations along with auxiliary data was used to produce a reference inundation map. A preliminary, binary comparison of the inundation maps to the reference, limited to the five HUC-12 areas of Goldsboro, NC, yielded that the flood inundation accuracies for NWM and SPRNT were 74.68% and 78.37%, respectively. The differences for all the relevant test statistics including accuracy, true positive rate, true negative rate, and positive predictive value were found
Prediction Model of Battery State of Charge and Control Parameter Optimization for Electric Vehicle
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bambang Wahono
2015-07-01
Full Text Available This paper presents the construction of a battery state of charge (SOC prediction model and the optimization method of the said model to appropriately control the number of parameters in compliance with the SOC as the battery output objectives. Research Centre for Electrical Power and Mechatronics, Indonesian Institute of Sciences has tested its electric vehicle research prototype on the road, monitoring its voltage, current, temperature, time, vehicle velocity, motor speed, and SOC during the operation. Using this experimental data, the prediction model of battery SOC was built. Stepwise method considering multicollinearity was able to efficiently develops the battery prediction model that describes the multiple control parameters in relation to the characteristic values such as SOC. It was demonstrated that particle swarm optimization (PSO succesfully and efficiently calculated optimal control parameters to optimize evaluation item such as SOC based on the model.
Predictive models for moving contact line flows
Rame, Enrique; Garoff, Stephen
2003-01-01
Modeling flows with moving contact lines poses the formidable challenge that the usual assumptions of Newtonian fluid and no-slip condition give rise to a well-known singularity. This singularity prevents one from satisfying the contact angle condition to compute the shape of the fluid-fluid interface, a crucial calculation without which design parameters such as the pressure drop needed to move an immiscible 2-fluid system through a solid matrix cannot be evaluated. Some progress has been made for low Capillary number spreading flows. Combining experimental measurements of fluid-fluid interfaces very near the moving contact line with an analytical expression for the interface shape, we can determine a parameter that forms a boundary condition for the macroscopic interface shape when Ca much les than l. This parameter, which plays the role of an "apparent" or macroscopic dynamic contact angle, is shown by the theory to depend on the system geometry through the macroscopic length scale. This theoretically established dependence on geometry allows this parameter to be "transferable" from the geometry of the measurement to any other geometry involving the same material system. Unfortunately this prediction of the theory cannot be tested on Earth.
Developmental prediction model for early alcohol initiation in Dutch adolescents
Geels, L.M.; Vink, J.M.; Beijsterveldt, C.E.M. van; Bartels, M.; Boomsma, D.I.
2013-01-01
Objective: Multiple factors predict early alcohol initiation in teenagers. Among these are genetic risk factors, childhood behavioral problems, life events, lifestyle, and family environment. We constructed a developmental prediction model for alcohol initiation below the Dutch legal drinking age
An Application on Merton Model in the Non-efficient Market
Feng, Yanan; Xiao, Qingxian
Merton Model is one of the famous credit risk models. This model presumes that the only source of uncertainty in equity prices is the firm’s net asset value .But the above market condition holds only when the market is efficient which is often been ignored in modern research. Another, the original Merton Model is based on assumptions that in the event of default absolute priority holds, renegotiation is not permitted , liquidation of the firm is costless and in the Merton Model and most of its modified version the default boundary is assumed to be constant which don’t correspond with the reality. So these can influence the level of predictive power of the model. In this paper, we have made some extensions on some of these assumptions underlying the original model. The model is virtually a modification of Merton’s model. In a non-efficient market, we use the stock data to analysis this model. The result shows that the modified model can evaluate the credit risk well in the non-efficient market.
Wang, Zengjian; Zhang, Delong; Liang, Bishan; Chang, Song; Pan, Jinghua; Huang, Ruiwang; Liu, Ming
2016-01-01
Biological motion perception (BMP) refers to the ability to perceive the moving form of a human figure from a limited amount of stimuli, such as from a few point lights located on the joints of a moving body. BMP is commonplace and important, but there is great inter-individual variability in this ability. This study used multiple regression model analysis to explore the association between BMP performance and intrinsic brain activity, in order to investigate the neural substrates underlying inter-individual variability of BMP performance. The resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI) and BMP performance data were collected from 24 healthy participants, for whom intrinsic brain networks were constructed, and a graph-based network efficiency metric was measured. Then, a multiple linear regression model was used to explore the association between network regional efficiency and BMP performance. We found that the local and global network efficiency of many regions was significantly correlated with BMP performance. Further analysis showed that the local efficiency rather than global efficiency could be used to explain most of the BMP inter-individual variability, and the regions involved were predominately located in the Default Mode Network (DMN). Additionally, discrimination analysis showed that the local efficiency of certain regions such as the thalamus could be used to classify BMP performance across participants. Notably, the association pattern between network nodal efficiency and BMP was different from the association pattern of static directional/gender information perception. Overall, these findings show that intrinsic brain network efficiency may be considered a neural factor that explains BMP inter-individual variability. PMID:27853427
Energetics and efficiency of a molecular motor model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fogedby, Hans C.; Svane, Axel
2013-01-01
The energetics and efficiency of a linear molecular motor model proposed by Mogilner et al. (Phys. Lett. 237, 297 (1998)) is analyzed from an analytical point of view. The model which is based on protein friction with a track is described by coupled Langevin equations for the motion in combination...... with coupled master equations for the ATP hydrolysis. Here the energetics and efficiency of the motor is addressed using a many body scheme with focus on the efficiency at maximum power (EMP). It is found that the EMP is reduced from about 10 pct in a heuristic description of the motor to about 1 per mille...... when incorporating the full motor dynamics, owing to the strong dissipation associated with the motor action....
Optimization of MC model of HPGe detector efficiency
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kovacik, A.
2009-01-01
Peak efficiency of HPGe detector is limited by several factors such as the probability of interaction of gamma quanta in the detector, sample geometry, measurement geometry and energy of emitted gamma quanta. Computer modelling using Monte Carlo is one of the options with which to evaluate the effectiveness of the detector for an optional shape and composition of the sample. The accuracy of this method is limited by accurate knowledge of the size and composition of all materials of detector, including dead layers in the active volume of germanium crystal, which is a quantity which cannot be directly measured. This work, among other things, investigated the effect of the thickness of dead layers at peak efficiency and look for their small size, by comparing modelled and experimentally determined efficiency. (author)
Toward an Efficient Prediction of Solar Flares: Which Parameters, and How?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Manolis K. Georgoulis
2013-11-01
Full Text Available Solar flare prediction has become a forefront topic in contemporary solar physics, with numerous published methods relying on numerous predictive parameters, that can even be divided into parameter classes. Attempting further insight, we focus on two popular classes of flare-predictive parameters, namely multiscale (i.e., fractal and multifractal and proxy (i.e., morphological parameters, and we complement our analysis with a study of the predictive capability of fundamental physical parameters (i.e., magnetic free energy and relative magnetic helicity. Rather than applying the studied parameters to a comprehensive statistical sample of flaring and non-flaring active regions, that was the subject of our previous studies, the novelty of this work is their application to an exceptionally long and high-cadence time series of the intensely eruptive National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA active region (AR 11158, observed by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory. Aiming for a detailed study of the temporal evolution of each parameter, we seek distinctive patterns that could be associated with the four largest flares in the AR in the course of its five-day observing interval. We find that proxy parameters only tend to show preflare impulses that are practical enough to warrant subsequent investigation with sufficient statistics. Combining these findings with previous results, we conclude that: (i carefully constructed, physically intuitive proxy parameters may be our best asset toward an efficient future flare-forecasting; and (ii the time series of promising parameters may be as important as their instantaneous values. Value-based prediction is the only approach followed so far. Our results call for novel signal and/or image processing techniques to efficiently utilize combined amplitude and temporal-profile information to optimize the inferred solar-flare probabilities.
Prediction and Validation of Heat Release Direct Injection Diesel Engine Using Multi-Zone Model
Anang Nugroho, Bagus; Sugiarto, Bambang; Prawoto; Shalahuddin, Lukman
2014-04-01
The objective of this study is to develop simulation model which capable to predict heat release of diesel combustion accurately in efficient computation time. A multi-zone packet model has been applied to solve the combustion phenomena inside diesel cylinder. The model formulations are presented first and then the numerical results are validated on a single cylinder direct injection diesel engine at various engine speed and timing injections. The model were found to be promising to fulfill the objective above.
Efficient Adoption and Assessment of Multiple Process Improvement Reference Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Simona Jeners
2013-06-01
Full Text Available A variety of reference models such as CMMI, COBIT or ITIL support IT organizations to improve their processes. These process improvement reference models (IRMs cover different domains such as IT development, IT Services or IT Governance but also share some similarities. As there are organizations that address multiple domains and need to coordinate their processes in their improvement we present MoSaIC, an approach to support organizations to efficiently adopt and conform to multiple IRMs. Our solution realizes a semantic integration of IRMs based on common meta-models. The resulting IRM integration model enables organizations to efficiently implement and asses multiple IRMs and to benefit from synergy effects.
Simulating the market for automotive fuel efficiency: The SHRSIM model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Greene, D.L.
1987-02-01
This report describes a computer model for simulating the effects of uncertainty about future fuel prices and competitors' behavior on the market shares of an automobile manufacturer who is considering introducing technology to increase fuel efficiency. Starting with an initial sales distribution, a pivot-point multinomial logit technique is used to adjust market shares based on changes in the present value of the added fuel efficiency. These shifts are random because the model generates random fuel price projections using parameters supplied by the user. The user also controls the timing of introduction and obsolescence of technology. While the model was designed with automobiles in mind, it has more general applicability to energy using durable goods. The model is written in IBM BASIC for an IBM PC and compiled using the Microsoft QuickBASIC (trademark of the Microsoft corporation) compiler.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Seung Heo
2015-09-01
Full Text Available In this study, efficient numerical method is proposed for predicting tonal and broadband noises of a centrifugal fan unit. The proposed method is based on Hybrid Computational Aero-Acoustic (H-CAA techniques combined with Unsteady Fast Random Particle Mesh (U-FRPM method. The U-FRPM method is developed by extending the FRPM method proposed by Ewert et al. and is utilized to synthesize turbulence flow field from unsteady RANS solutions. The H-CAA technique combined with U-FRPM method is applied to predict broadband as well as tonal noises of a centrifugal fan unit in a household refrigerator. Firstly, unsteady flow field driven by a rotating fan is computed by solving the RANS equations with Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD techniques. Main source regions around the rotating fan are identified by examining the computed flow fields. Then, turbulence flow fields in the main source regions are synthesized by applying the U-FRPM method. The acoustic analogy is applied to model acoustic sources in the main source regions. Finally, the centrifugal fan noise is predicted by feeding the modeled acoustic sources into an acoustic solver based on the Boundary Element Method (BEM. The sound spectral levels predicted using the current numerical method show good agreements with the measured spectra at the Blade Pass Frequencies (BPFs as well as in the high frequency range. On the more, the present method enables quantitative assessment of relative contributions of identified source regions to the sound field by comparing predicted sound pressure spectrum due to modeled sources.
Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models
Gleixner, Stephanie; Keenlyside, Noel S.; Demissie, Teferi D.; Counillon, François; Wang, Yiguo; Viste, Ellen
2017-11-01
The Ethiopian economy and population is strongly dependent on rainfall. Operational seasonal predictions for the main rainy season (Kiremt, June-September) are based on statistical approaches with Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) as the main predictor. Here we analyse dynamical predictions from 11 coupled general circulation models for the Kiremt seasons from 1985-2005 with the forecasts starting from the beginning of May. We find skillful predictions from three of the 11 models, but no model beats a simple linear prediction model based on the predicted Niño3.4 indices. The skill of the individual models for dynamically predicting Kiremt rainfall depends on the strength of the teleconnection between Kiremt rainfall and concurrent Pacific SST in the models. Models that do not simulate this teleconnection fail to capture the observed relationship between Kiremt rainfall and the large-scale Walker circulation.
Efficient family-based model checking via variability abstractions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dimovski, Aleksandar; Al-Sibahi, Ahmad Salim; Brabrand, Claus
2016-01-01
Many software systems are variational: they can be configured to meet diverse sets of requirements. They can produce a (potentially huge) number of related systems, known as products or variants, by systematically reusing common parts. For variational models (variational systems or families...... with the abstract model checking of the concrete high-level variational model. This allows the use of Spin with all its accumulated optimizations for efficient verification of variational models without any knowledge about variability. We have implemented the transformations in a prototype tool, and we illustrate...
Demand Management Based on Model Predictive Control Techniques
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yasser A. Davizón
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Demand management (DM is the process that helps companies to sell the right product to the right customer, at the right time, and for the right price. Therefore the challenge for any company is to determine how much to sell, at what price, and to which market segment while maximizing its profits. DM also helps managers efficiently allocate undifferentiated units of capacity to the available demand with the goal of maximizing revenue. This paper introduces control system approach to demand management with dynamic pricing (DP using the model predictive control (MPC technique. In addition, we present a proper dynamical system analogy based on active suspension and a stability analysis is provided via the Lyapunov direct method.
MODELLING OF DYNAMIC SPEED LIMITS USING THE MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andrey Borisovich Nikolaev
2017-09-01
Full Text Available The article considers the issues of traffic management using intelligent system “Car-Road” (IVHS, which consist of interacting intelligent vehicles (IV and intelligent roadside controllers. Vehicles are organized in convoy with small distances between them. All vehicles are assumed to be fully automated (throttle control, braking, steering. Proposed approaches for determining speed limits for traffic cars on the motorway using a model predictive control (MPC. The article proposes an approach to dynamic speed limit to minimize the downtime of vehicles in traffic.
Efficient Bayesian Estimation and Combination of GARCH-Type Models
D. David (David); L.F. Hoogerheide (Lennart)
2010-01-01
textabstractThis paper proposes an up-to-date review of estimation strategies available for the Bayesian inference of GARCH-type models. The emphasis is put on a novel efficient procedure named AdMitIS. The methodology automatically constructs a mixture of Student-t distributions as an approximation
Energy efficiency in nonprofit agencies: Creating effective program models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Brown, M.A.; Prindle, B.; Scherr, M.I.; White, D.L.
1990-08-01
Nonprofit agencies are a critical component of the health and human services system in the US. It has been clearly demonstrated by programs that offer energy efficiency services to nonprofits that, with minimal investment, they can educe their energy consumption by ten to thirty percent. This energy conservation potential motivated the Department of Energy and Oak Ridge National Laboratory to conceive a project to help states develop energy efficiency programs for nonprofits. The purpose of the project was two-fold: (1) to analyze existing programs to determine which design and delivery mechanisms are particularly effective, and (2) to create model programs for states to follow in tailoring their own plans for helping nonprofits with energy efficiency programs. Twelve existing programs were reviewed, and three model programs were devised and put into operation. The model programs provide various forms of financial assistance to nonprofits and serve as a source of information on energy efficiency as well. After examining the results from the model programs (which are still on-going) and from the existing programs, several replicability factors'' were developed for use in the implementation of programs by other states. These factors -- some concrete and practical, others more generalized -- serve as guidelines for states devising program based on their own particular needs and resources.
Data-Mining-Based Coronary Heart Disease Risk Prediction Model Using Fuzzy Logic and Decision Tree.
Kim, Jaekwon; Lee, Jongsik; Lee, Youngho
2015-07-01
The importance of the prediction of coronary heart disease (CHD) has been recognized in Korea; however, few studies have been conducted in this area. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a method for the prediction and classification of CHD in Koreans. A model for CHD prediction must be designed according to rule-based guidelines. In this study, a fuzzy logic and decision tree (classification and regression tree [CART])-driven CHD prediction model was developed for Koreans. Datasets derived from the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey VI (KNHANES-VI) were utilized to generate the proposed model. The rules were generated using a decision tree technique, and fuzzy logic was applied to overcome problems associated with uncertainty in CHD prediction. The accuracy and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve values of the propose systems were 69.51% and 0.594, proving that the proposed methods were more efficient than other models.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ting Zhou
2017-10-01
Full Text Available Reliable prediction of groundwater depth fluctuations has been an important component in sustainable water resources management. In this study, a data-driven prediction model combining discrete wavelet transform (DWT preprocess and support vector machine (SVM was proposed for groundwater depth forecasting. Regular artificial neural networks (ANN, regular SVM, and wavelet preprocessed artificial neural networks (WANN models were also developed for comparison. These methods were applied to the monthly groundwater depth records over a period of 37 years from ten wells in the Mengcheng County, China. Relative absolute error (RAE, Pearson correlation coefficient (r, root mean square error (RMSE, and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE were adopted for model evaluation. The results indicate that wavelet preprocess extremely improved the training and test performance of ANN and SVM models. The WSVM model provided the most precise and reliable groundwater depth prediction compared with ANN, SVM, and WSVM models. The criterion of RAE, r, RMSE, and NSE values for proposed WSVM model are 0.20, 0.97, 0.18 and 0.94, respectively. Comprehensive comparisons and discussion revealed that wavelet preprocess extremely improves the prediction precision and reliability for both SVM and ANN models. The prediction result of SVM model is superior to ANN model in generalization ability and precision. Nevertheless, the performance of WANN is superior to SVM model, which further validates the power of data preprocess in data-driven prediction models. Finally, the optimal model, WSVM, is discussed by comparing its subseries performances as well as model performance stability, revealing the efficiency and universality of WSVM model in data driven prediction field.
Richardson, Miles
2017-04-01
In ergonomics there is often a need to identify and predict the separate effects of multiple factors on performance. A cost-effective fractional factorial approach to understanding the relationship between task characteristics and task performance is presented. The method has been shown to provide sufficient independent variability to reveal and predict the effects of task characteristics on performance in two domains. The five steps outlined are: selection of performance measure, task characteristic identification, task design for user trials, data collection, regression model development and task characteristic analysis. The approach can be used for furthering knowledge of task performance, theoretical understanding, experimental control and prediction of task performance. Practitioner Summary: A cost-effective method to identify and predict the separate effects of multiple factors on performance is presented. The five steps allow a better understanding of task factors during the design process.
Li, Qiuying; Pham, Hoang
2017-01-01
In this paper, we propose a software reliability model that considers not only error generation but also fault removal efficiency combined with testing coverage information based on a nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP). During the past four decades, many software reliability growth models (SRGMs) based on NHPP have been proposed to estimate the software reliability measures, most of which have the same following agreements: 1) it is a common phenomenon that during the testing phase, the fault detection rate always changes; 2) as a result of imperfect debugging, fault removal has been related to a fault re-introduction rate. But there are few SRGMs in the literature that differentiate between fault detection and fault removal, i.e. they seldom consider the imperfect fault removal efficiency. But in practical software developing process, fault removal efficiency cannot always be perfect, i.e. the failures detected might not be removed completely and the original faults might still exist and new faults might be introduced meanwhile, which is referred to as imperfect debugging phenomenon. In this study, a model aiming to incorporate fault introduction rate, fault removal efficiency and testing coverage into software reliability evaluation is developed, using testing coverage to express the fault detection rate and using fault removal efficiency to consider the fault repair. We compare the performance of the proposed model with several existing NHPP SRGMs using three sets of real failure data based on five criteria. The results exhibit that the model can give a better fitting and predictive performance.
Simplified Predictive Models for CO2 Sequestration Performance Assessment
Mishra, Srikanta; RaviGanesh, Priya; Schuetter, Jared; Mooney, Douglas; He, Jincong; Durlofsky, Louis
2014-05-01
We present results from an ongoing research project that seeks to develop and validate a portfolio of simplified modeling approaches that will enable rapid feasibility and risk assessment for CO2 sequestration in deep saline formation. The overall research goal is to provide tools for predicting: (a) injection well and formation pressure buildup, and (b) lateral and vertical CO2 plume migration. Simplified modeling approaches that are being developed in this research fall under three categories: (1) Simplified physics-based modeling (SPM), where only the most relevant physical processes are modeled, (2) Statistical-learning based modeling (SLM), where the simulator is replaced with a "response surface", and (3) Reduced-order method based modeling (RMM), where mathematical approximations reduce the computational burden. The system of interest is a single vertical well injecting supercritical CO2 into a 2-D layered reservoir-caprock system with variable layer permeabilities. In the first category (SPM), we use a set of well-designed full-physics compositional simulations to understand key processes and parameters affecting pressure propagation and buoyant plume migration. Based on these simulations, we have developed correlations for dimensionless injectivity as a function of the slope of fractional-flow curve, variance of layer permeability values, and the nature of vertical permeability arrangement. The same variables, along with a modified gravity number, can be used to develop a correlation for the total storage efficiency within the CO2 plume footprint. In the second category (SLM), we develop statistical "proxy models" using the simulation domain described previously with two different approaches: (a) classical Box-Behnken experimental design with a quadratic response surface fit, and (b) maximin Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) based design with a Kriging metamodel fit using a quadratic trend and Gaussian correlation structure. For roughly the same number of
Predictability in models of the atmospheric circulation
Houtekamer, P.L.
1992-01-01
It will be clear from the above discussions that skill forecasts are still in their infancy. Operational skill predictions do not exist. One is still struggling to prove that skill predictions, at any range, have any quality at all. It is not clear what the statistics of the analysis error
Functional Testing Protocols for Commercial Building Efficiency Baseline Modeling Software
Jump, David
2014-01-01
This document describes procedures for testing and validating proprietary baseline energy modeling software accuracy in predicting energy use over the period of interest, such as a month or a year. The procedures are designed according to the methodology used for public domain baselining software in another LBNL report that was (like the present report) prepared for Pacific Gas and Electric Company: ?Commercial Building Energy Baseline Modeling Software: Performance Metrics and Method Testing...
Liu, Fei; Zhang, Xi; Jia, Yan
2015-01-01
In this paper, we propose a computer information processing algorithm that can be used for biomedical image processing and disease prediction. A biomedical image is considered a data object in a multi-dimensional space. Each dimension is a feature that can be used for disease diagnosis. We introduce a new concept of the top (k1,k2) outlier. It can be used to detect abnormal data objects in the multi-dimensional space. This technique focuses on uncertain space, where each data object has several possible instances with distinct probabilities. We design an efficient sampling algorithm for the top (k1,k2) outlier in uncertain space. Some improvement techniques are used for acceleration. Experiments show our methods' high accuracy and high efficiency.
Edwards, Elizabeth J; Edwards, Mark S; Lyvers, Michael
2016-08-01
Attentional control theory (ACT) describes the mechanisms associated with the relationship between anxiety and cognitive performance. We investigated the relationship between cognitive trait anxiety, situational stress and mental effort on phonological performance using a simple (forward-) and complex (backward-) word span task. Ninety undergraduate students participated in the study. Predictor variables were cognitive trait anxiety, indexed using questionnaire scores; situational stress, manipulated using ego threat instructions; and perceived level of mental effort, measured using a visual analogue scale. Criterion variables (a) performance effectiveness (accuracy) and (b) processing efficiency (accuracy divided by response time) were analyzed in separate multiple moderated-regression analyses. The results revealed (a) no relationship between the predictors and performance effectiveness, and (b) a significant 3-way interaction on processing efficiency for both the simple and complex tasks, such that at higher effort, trait anxiety and situational stress did not predict processing efficiency, whereas at lower effort, higher trait anxiety was associated with lower efficiency at high situational stress, but not at low situational stress. Our results were in full support of the assumptions of ACT and implications for future research are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).
Required Collaborative Work in Online Courses: A Predictive Modeling Approach
Smith, Marlene A.; Kellogg, Deborah L.
2015-01-01
This article describes a predictive model that assesses whether a student will have greater perceived learning in group assignments or in individual work. The model produces correct classifications 87.5% of the time. The research is notable in that it is the first in the education literature to adopt a predictive modeling methodology using data…
Models for predicting compressive strength and water absorption of ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
This work presents a mathematical model for predicting the compressive strength and water absorption of laterite-quarry dust cement block using augmented Scheffe's simplex lattice design. The statistical models developed can predict the mix proportion that will yield the desired property. The models were tested for lack of ...
Accurate Holdup Calculations with Predictive Modeling & Data Integration
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Azmy, Yousry [North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States). Dept. of Nuclear Engineering; Cacuci, Dan [Univ. of South Carolina, Columbia, SC (United States). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering
2017-04-03
In facilities that process special nuclear material (SNM) it is important to account accurately for the fissile material that enters and leaves the plant. Although there are many stages and processes through which materials must be traced and measured, the focus of this project is material that is “held-up” in equipment, pipes, and ducts during normal operation and that can accumulate over time into significant quantities. Accurately estimating the holdup is essential for proper SNM accounting (vis-à-vis nuclear non-proliferation), criticality and radiation safety, waste management, and efficient plant operation. Usually it is not possible to directly measure the holdup quantity and location, so these must be inferred from measured radiation fields, primarily gamma and less frequently neutrons. Current methods to quantify holdup, i.e. Generalized Geometry Holdup (GGH), primarily rely on simple source configurations and crude radiation transport models aided by ad hoc correction factors. This project seeks an alternate method of performing measurement-based holdup calculations using a predictive model that employs state-of-the-art radiation transport codes capable of accurately simulating such situations. Inverse and data assimilation methods use the forward transport model to search for a source configuration that best matches the measured data and simultaneously provide an estimate of the level of confidence in the correctness of such configuration. In this work the holdup problem is re-interpreted as an inverse problem that is under-determined, hence may permit multiple solutions. A probabilistic approach is applied to solving the resulting inverse problem. This approach rates possible solutions according to their plausibility given the measurements and initial information. This is accomplished through the use of Bayes’ Theorem that resolves the issue of multiple solutions by giving an estimate of the probability of observing each possible solution. To use
Modeling high-efficiency quantum dot sensitized solar cells.
González-Pedro, Victoria; Xu, Xueqing; Mora-Seró, Iván; Bisquert, Juan
2010-10-26
With energy conversion efficiencies in continuous growth, quantum dot sensitized solar cells (QDSCs) are currently under an increasing interest, but there is an absence of a complete model for these devices. Here, we compile the latest developments in this kind of cells in order to attain high efficiency QDSCs, modeling the performance. CdSe QDs have been grown directly on a TiO(2) surface by successive ionic layer adsorption and reaction to ensure high QD loading. ZnS coating and previous growth of CdS were analyzed. Polysulfide electrolyte and Cu(2)S counterelectrodes were used to provide higher photocurrents and fill factors, FF. Incident photon-to-current efficiency peaks as high as 82%, under full 1 sun illumination, were obtained, which practically overcomes the photocurrent limitation commonly observed in QDSCs. High power conversion efficiency of up to 3.84% under full 1 sun illumination (V(oc) = 0.538 V, j(sc) = 13.9 mA/cm(2), FF = 0.51) and the characterization and modeling carried out indicate that recombination has to be overcome for further improvement of QDSC.
Efficient Parallel Statistical Model Checking of Biochemical Networks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Paolo Ballarini
2009-12-01
Full Text Available We consider the problem of verifying stochastic models of biochemical networks against behavioral properties expressed in temporal logic terms. Exact probabilistic verification approaches such as, for example, CSL/PCTL model checking, are undermined by a huge computational demand which rule them out for most real case studies. Less demanding approaches, such as statistical model checking, estimate the likelihood that a property is satisfied by sampling executions out of the stochastic model. We propose a methodology for efficiently estimating the likelihood that a LTL property P holds of a stochastic model of a biochemical network. As with other statistical verification techniques, the methodology we propose uses a stochastic simulation algorithm for generating execution samples, however there are three key aspects that improve the efficiency: first, the sample generation is driven by on-the-fly verification of P which results in optimal overall simulation time. Second, the confidence interval estimation for the probability of P to hold is based on an efficient variant of the Wilson method which ensures a faster convergence. Third, the whole methodology is designed according to a parallel fashion and a prototype software tool has been implemented that performs the sampling/verification process in parallel over an HPC architecture.
Model predictive control of a solar-thermal reactor
Saade Saade, Maria Elizabeth
Solar-thermal reactors represent a promising alternative to fossil fuels because they can harvest solar energy and transform it into storable and transportable fuels. The operation of solar-thermal reactors is restricted by the available sunlight and its inherently transient behavior, which affects the performance of the reactors and limits their efficiency. Before solar-thermal reactors can become commercially viable, they need to be able to maintain a continuous high-performance operation, even in the presence of passing clouds. A well-designed control system can preserve product quality and maintain stable product compositions, resulting in a more efficient and cost-effective operation, which can ultimately lead to scale-up and commercialization of solar thermochemical technologies. In this work, we propose a model predictive control (MPC) system for a solar-thermal reactor for the steam-gasification of biomass. The proposed controller aims at rejecting the disturbances in solar irradiation caused by the presence of clouds. A first-principles dynamic model of the process was developed. The model was used to study the dynamic responses of the process variables and to identify a linear time-invariant model used in the MPC algorithm. To provide an estimation of the disturbances for the control algorithm, a one-minute-ahead direct normal irradiance (DNI) predictor was developed. The proposed predictor utilizes information obtained through the analysis of sky images, in combination with current atmospheric measurements, to produce the DNI forecast. In the end, a robust controller was designed capable of rejecting disturbances within the operating region. Extensive simulation experiments showed that the controller outperforms a finely-tuned multi-loop feedback control strategy. The results obtained suggest that our controller is suitable for practical implementation.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hossein Jafari Mansoorian
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Background & Aims of the Study: A feed forward artificial neural network (FFANN was developed to predict the efficiency of total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH removal from a contaminated soil, using soil washing process with Tween 80. The main objective of this study was to assess the performance of developed FFANN model for the estimation of TPH removal. Materials and Methods: Several independent repressors including pH, shaking speed, surfactant concentration and contact time were used to describe the removal of TPH as a dependent variable in a FFANN model. 85% of data set observations were used for training the model and remaining 15% were used for model testing, approximately. The performance of the model was compared with linear regression and assessed, using Root of Mean Square Error (RMSE as goodness-of-fit measure Results: For the prediction of TPH removal efficiency, a FANN model with a three-hidden-layer structure of 4-3-1 and a learning rate of 0.01 showed the best predictive results. The RMSE and R2 for the training and testing steps of the model were obtained to be 2.596, 0.966, 10.70 and 0.78, respectively. Conclusion: For about 80% of the TPH removal efficiency can be described by the assessed regressors the developed model. Thus, focusing on the optimization of soil washing process regarding to shaking speed, contact time, surfactant concentration and pH can improve the TPH removal performance from polluted soils. The results of this study could be the basis for the application of FANN for the assessment of soil washing process and the control of petroleum hydrocarbon emission into the environments.
Efficient modeling of sun/shade canopy radiation dynamics explicitly accounting for scattering
Bodin, P.; Franklin, O.
2012-04-01
The separation of global radiation (Rg) into its direct (Rb) and diffuse constituents (Rg) is important when modeling plant photosynthesis because a high Rd:Rg ratio has been shown to enhance Gross Primary Production (GPP). To include this effect in vegetation models, the plant canopy must be separated into sunlit and shaded leaves. However, because such models are often too intractable and computationally expensive for theoretical or large scale studies, simpler sun-shade approaches are often preferred. A widely used and computationally efficient sun-shade model was developed by Goudriaan (1977) (GOU). However, compared to more complex models, this model's realism is limited by its lack of explicit treatment of radiation scattering. Here we present a new model based on the GOU model, but which in contrast explicitly simulates radiation scattering by sunlit leaves and the absorption of this radiation by the canopy layers above and below (2-stream approach). Compared to the GOU model our model predicts significantly different profiles of scattered radiation that are in better agreement with measured profiles of downwelling diffuse radiation. With respect to these data our model's performance is equal to a more complex and much slower iterative radiation model while maintaining the simplicity and computational efficiency of the GOU model.
Bayesian based Prognostic Model for Predictive Maintenance of Offshore Wind Farms
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Asgarpour, Masoud; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard
2018-01-01
monitoring, fault prediction and predictive maintenance of offshore wind components is defined. The diagnostic model defined in this paper is based on degradation, remaining useful lifetime and hybrid inspection threshold models. The defined degradation model is based on an exponential distribution......The operation and maintenance costs of offshore wind farms can be significantly reduced if existing corrective actions are performed as efficient as possible and if future corrective actions are avoided by performing sufficient preventive actions. In this paper a prognostic model for degradation...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lee-Ing Tong
2012-02-01
Full Text Available Solar energy has become an important energy source in recent years as it generates less pollution than other energies. A photovoltaic (PV system, which typically has many components, converts solar energy into electrical energy. With the development of advanced engineering technologies, the transfer efficiency of a PV system has been increased from low to high. The combination of components in a PV system influences its transfer efficiency. Therefore, when predicting the transfer efficiency of a PV system, one must consider the relationship among system components. This work accurately predicts whether transfer efficiency of a PV system is high or low using a novel hybrid model that combines rough set theory (RST, data envelopment analysis (DEA, and genetic programming (GP. Finally, real data-set are utilized to demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed method.
Regression models for predicting anthropometric measurements of ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
measure anthropometric dimensions to predict difficult-to-measure dimensions required for ergonomic design of school furniture. A total of 143 students aged between 16 and 18 years from eight public secondary schools in Ogbomoso, Nigeria ...
FINITE ELEMENT MODEL FOR PREDICTING RESIDUAL ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
direction (σx) had a maximum value of 375MPa (tensile) and minimum value of ... These results shows that the residual stresses obtained by prediction from the finite element method are in fair agreement with the experimental results.
Probabilistic Modeling and Visualization for Bankruptcy Prediction
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Antunes, Francisco; Ribeiro, Bernardete; Pereira, Francisco Camara
2017-01-01
In accounting and finance domains, bankruptcy prediction is of great utility for all of the economic stakeholders. The challenge of accurate assessment of business failure prediction, specially under scenarios of financial crisis, is known to be complicated. Although there have been many successful......). Using real-world bankruptcy data, an in-depth analysis is conducted showing that, in addition to a probabilistic interpretation, the GP can effectively improve the bankruptcy prediction performance with high accuracy when compared to the other approaches. We additionally generate a complete graphical...... visualization to improve our understanding of the different attained performances, effectively compiling all the conducted experiments in a meaningful way. We complete our study with an entropy-based analysis that highlights the uncertainty handling properties provided by the GP, crucial for prediction tasks...
Prediction for Major Adverse Outcomes in Cardiac Surgery: Comparison of Three Prediction Models
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Cheng-Hung Hsieh
2007-09-01
Conclusion: The Parsonnet score performed as well as the logistic regression models in predicting major adverse outcomes. The Parsonnet score appears to be a very suitable model for clinicians to use in risk stratification of cardiac surgery.
Efficient Actor-Critic Algorithm with Hierarchical Model Learning and Planning
Fu, QiMing
2016-01-01
To improve the convergence rate and the sample efficiency, two efficient learning methods AC-HMLP and RAC-HMLP (AC-HMLP with ℓ 2-regularization) are proposed by combining actor-critic algorithm with hierarchical model learning and planning. The hierarchical models consisting of the local and the global models, which are learned at the same time during learning of the value function and the policy, are approximated by local linear regression (LLR) and linear function approximation (LFA), respectively. Both the local model and the global model are applied to generate samples for planning; the former is used only if the state-prediction error does not surpass the threshold at each time step, while the latter is utilized at the end of each episode. The purpose of taking both models is to improve the sample efficiency and accelerate the convergence rate of the whole algorithm through fully utilizing the local and global information. Experimentally, AC-HMLP and RAC-HMLP are compared with three representative algorithms on two Reinforcement Learning (RL) benchmark problems. The results demonstrate that they perform best in terms of convergence rate and sample efficiency. PMID:27795704
Efficient Actor-Critic Algorithm with Hierarchical Model Learning and Planning
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Shan Zhong
2016-01-01
Full Text Available To improve the convergence rate and the sample efficiency, two efficient learning methods AC-HMLP and RAC-HMLP (AC-HMLP with l2-regularization are proposed by combining actor-critic algorithm with hierarchical model learning and planning. The hierarchical models consisting of the local and the global models, which are learned at the same time during learning of the value function and the policy, are approximated by local linear regression (LLR and linear function approximation (LFA, respectively. Both the local model and the global model are applied to generate samples for planning; the former is used only if the state-prediction error does not surpass the threshold at each time step, while the latter is utilized at the end of each episode. The purpose of taking both models is to improve the sample efficiency and accelerate the convergence rate of the whole algorithm through fully utilizing the local and global information. Experimentally, AC-HMLP and RAC-HMLP are compared with three representative algorithms on two Reinforcement Learning (RL benchmark problems. The results demonstrate that they perform best in terms of convergence rate and sample efficiency.
Prediction of effluent concentration in a wastewater treatment plant using machine learning models.
Guo, Hong; Jeong, Kwanho; Lim, Jiyeon; Jo, Jeongwon; Kim, Young Mo; Park, Jong-pyo; Kim, Joon Ha; Cho, Kyung Hwa
2015-06-01
Of growing amount of food waste, the integrated food waste and waste water treatment was regarded as one of the efficient modeling method. However, the load of food waste to the conventional waste treatment process might lead to the high concentration of total nitrogen (T-N) impact on the effluent water quality. The objective of this study is to establish two machine learning models-artificial neural networks (ANNs) and support vector machines (SVMs), in order to predict 1-day interval T-N concentration of effluent from a wastewater treatment plant in Ulsan, Korea. Daily water quality data and meteorological data were used and the performance of both models was evaluated in terms of the coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliff efficiency (NSE), relative efficiency criteria (drel). Additionally, Latin-Hypercube one-factor-at-a-time (LH-OAT) and a pattern search algorithm were applied to sensitivity analysis and model parameter optimization, respectively. Results showed that both models could be effectively applied to the 1-day interval prediction of T-N concentration of effluent. SVM model showed a higher prediction accuracy in the training stage and similar result in the validation stage. However, the sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the ANN model was a superior model for 1-day interval T-N concentration prediction in terms of the cause-and-effect relationship between T-N concentration and modeling input values to integrated food waste and waste water treatment. This study suggested the efficient and robust nonlinear time-series modeling method for an early prediction of the water quality of integrated food waste and waste water treatment process. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.
From Predictive Models to Instructional Policies
Rollinson, Joseph; Brunskill, Emma
2015-01-01
At their core, Intelligent Tutoring Systems consist of a student model and a policy. The student model captures the state of the student and the policy uses the student model to individualize instruction. Policies require different properties from the student model. For example, a mastery threshold policy requires the student model to have a way…
Efficient anisotropic wavefield extrapolation using effective isotropic models
Alkhalifah, Tariq Ali
2013-06-10
Isotropic wavefield extrapolation is more efficient than anisotropic extrapolation, and this is especially true when the anisotropy of the medium is tilted (from the vertical). We use the kinematics of the wavefield, appropriately represented in the high-frequency asymptotic approximation by the eikonal equation, to develop effective isotropic models, which are used to efficiently and approximately extrapolate anisotropic wavefields using the isotropic, relatively cheaper, operators. These effective velocity models are source dependent and tend to embed the anisotropy in the inhomogeneity. Though this isotropically generated wavefield theoretically shares the same kinematic behavior as that of the first arrival anisotropic wavefield, it also has the ability to include all the arrivals resulting from a complex wavefield propagation. In fact, the effective models reduce to the original isotropic model in the limit of isotropy, and thus, the difference between the effective model and, for example, the vertical velocity depends on the strength of anisotropy. For reverse time migration (RTM), effective models are developed for the source and receiver fields by computing the traveltime for a plane wave source stretching along our source and receiver lines in a delayed shot migration implementation. Applications to the BP TTI model demonstrates the effectiveness of the approach.
Prediction of Genomic Breeding Values for feed efficiency and related traits in pigs
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Do, Duy Ngoc; Janss, Luc; Strathe, Anders Bjerring
2014-01-01
.31-0.32 for DFI and RFI, respectively, and approx. 1.5% higher than that of GBLUP method. However , BPL models are more biased than GBLUP method for both traits and use of different power parameters has no effect on predictive ability of the models. Partitioning of genetic variance showed that SNP groups either...... by position (intron, exon, downstream, upstream and 5’UTR) or by function (missense and protein-altering) have similar average explained variance per SNP, except 3’UTR SNPs which explain approx. 3 times more variance then SNPs in the other groups. This study supports use of BPL models for both GWAS...... with different power parameters to investigate genetic architecture of RFI, to predict genomic breeding values, and to partition genetic variances for different SNP groups. Data were 1272 Duroc pigs with both genotypic and phenotypic records for RFI as well as daily feed intake (DFI). The gene mapping confirmed...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christensen, M. G.; Jensen, Søren Holdt
2006-01-01
A method for amplitude modulated sinusoidal audio coding is presented that has low complexity and low delay. This is based on a subband processing system, where, in each subband, the signal is modeled as an amplitude modulated sum of sinusoids. The envelopes are estimated using frequency......-domain linear prediction and the prediction coefficients are quantized. As a proof of concept, we evaluate different configurations in a subjective listening test, and this shows that the proposed method offers significant improvements in sinusoidal coding. Furthermore, the properties of the frequency...
An Efficient Dynamic Trust Evaluation Model for Wireless Sensor Networks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhengwang Ye
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Trust evaluation is an effective method to detect malicious nodes and ensure security in wireless sensor networks (WSNs. In this paper, an efficient dynamic trust evaluation model (DTEM for WSNs is proposed, which implements accurate, efficient, and dynamic trust evaluation by dynamically adjusting the weights of direct trust and indirect trust and the parameters of the update mechanism. To achieve accurate trust evaluation, the direct trust is calculated considering multitrust including communication trust, data trust, and energy trust with the punishment factor and regulating function. The indirect trust is evaluated conditionally by the trusted recommendations from a third party. Moreover, the integrated trust is measured by assigning dynamic weights for direct trust and indirect trust and combining them. Finally, we propose an update mechanism by a sliding window based on induced ordered weighted averaging operator to enhance flexibility. We can dynamically adapt the parameters and the interactive history windows number according to the actual needs of the network to realize dynamic update of direct trust value. Simulation results indicate that the proposed dynamic trust model is an efficient dynamic and attack-resistant trust evaluation model. Compared with existing approaches, the proposed dynamic trust model performs better in defending multiple malicious attacks.
Matsuoka, Fumiko; Takeuchi, Ichiro; Agata, Hideki; Kagami, Hideaki; Shiono, Hirofumi; Kiyota, Yasujiro; Honda, Hiroyuki; Kato, Ryuji
2014-07-01
Human bone marrow mesenchymal stem cells (hBMSCs) represents one of the most frequently applied cell sources for clinical bone regeneration. To achieve the greatest therapeutic effect, it is crucial to evaluate the osteogenic differentiation potential of the stem cells during their culture before the implantation. However, the practical evaluation of stem cell osteogenicity has been limited to invasive biological marker analysis that only enables assaying a single end-point. To innovate around invasive quality assessments in clinical cell therapy, we previously explored and demonstrated the positive predictive value of using time-course images taken during differentiation culture for hBMSC bone differentiation potential. This initial method establishes proof of concept for a morphology-based cell evaluation approach, but reveals a practical limitation when considering the need to handle large amounts of image data. In this report, we aimed to scale-down our proposed method into a more practical, efficient modeling scheme that can be more broadly implemented by physicians on the frontiers of clinical cell therapy. We investigated which morphological features are critical during the osteogenic differentiation period to assure the performance of prediction models with reduced burden on image acquisition. To our knowledge, this is the first detailed characterization that describes both the critical observation period and the critical number of time-points needed for morphological features to adequately model osteogenic potential. Our results revealed three important observations: (i) the morphological features from the first 3 days of differentiation are sufficiently informative to predict bone differentiation potential, both activities of alkaline phosphatase and calcium deposition, after 3 weeks of continuous culture; (ii) intervals of 48 h are sufficient for measuring critical morphological features; and (iii) morphological features are most accurately predictive
Increased Statistical Efficiency in a Lognormal Mean Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Grant H. Skrepnek
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Within the context of clinical and other scientific research, a substantial need exists for an accurate determination of the point estimate in a lognormal mean model, given that highly skewed data are often present. As such, logarithmic transformations are often advocated to achieve the assumptions of parametric statistical inference. Despite this, existing approaches that utilize only a sample’s mean and variance may not necessarily yield the most efficient estimator. The current investigation developed and tested an improved efficient point estimator for a lognormal mean by capturing more complete information via the sample’s coefficient of variation. Results of an empirical simulation study across varying sample sizes and population standard deviations indicated relative improvements in efficiency of up to 129.47 percent compared to the usual maximum likelihood estimator and up to 21.33 absolute percentage points above the efficient estimator presented by Shen and colleagues (2006. The relative efficiency of the proposed estimator increased particularly as a function of decreasing sample size and increasing population standard deviation.
Manzoni, S.; Capek, P.; Mooshammer, M.; Lindahl, B.; Richter, A.; Santruckova, H.
2016-12-01
Litter and soil organic matter decomposers feed on substrates with much wider C:N and C:P ratios then their own cellular composition, raising the question as to how they can adapt their metabolism to such a chronic stoichiometric imbalance. Here we propose an optimality framework to address this question, based on the hypothesis that carbon-use efficiency (CUE) can be optimally adjusted to maximize the decomposer growth rate. When nutrients are abundant, increasing CUE improves decomposer growth rate, at the expense of higher nutrient demand. However, when nutrients are scarce, increased nutrient demand driven by high CUE can trigger nutrient limitation and inhibit growth. An intermediate, `optimal' CUE ensures balanced growth at the verge of nutrient limitation. We derive a simple analytical equation that links this optimal CUE to organic substrate and decomposer biomass C:N and C:P ratios, and to the rate of inorganic nutrient supply (e.g., fertilization). This equation allows formulating two specific hypotheses: i) decomposer CUE should increase with widening organic substrate C:N and C:P ratios with a scaling exponent between 0 (with abundant inorganic nutrients) and -1 (scarce inorganic nutrients), and ii) CUE should increase with increasing inorganic nutrient supply, for a given organic substrate stoichiometry. These hypotheses are tested using a new database encompassing nearly 2000 estimates of CUE from about 160 studies, spanning aquatic and terrestrial decomposers of litter and more stabilized organic matter. The theoretical predictions are largely confirmed by our data analysis, except for the lack of fertilization effects on terrestrial decomposer CUE. While stoichiometric drivers constrain the general trends in CUE, the relatively large variability in CUE estimates suggests that other factors could be at play as well. For example, temperature is often cited as a potential driver of CUE, but we only found limited evidence of temperature effects
Comparisons of Faulting-Based Pavement Performance Prediction Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Weina Wang
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Faulting prediction is the core of concrete pavement maintenance and design. Highway agencies are always faced with the problem of lower accuracy for the prediction which causes costly maintenance. Although many researchers have developed some performance prediction models, the accuracy of prediction has remained a challenge. This paper reviews performance prediction models and JPCP faulting models that have been used in past research. Then three models including multivariate nonlinear regression (MNLR model, artificial neural network (ANN model, and Markov Chain (MC model are tested and compared using a set of actual pavement survey data taken on interstate highway with varying design features, traffic, and climate data. It is found that MNLR model needs further recalibration, while the ANN model needs more data for training the network. MC model seems a good tool for pavement performance prediction when the data is limited, but it is based on visual inspections and not explicitly related to quantitative physical parameters. This paper then suggests that the further direction for developing the performance prediction model is incorporating the advantages and disadvantages of different models to obtain better accuracy.
Comparison of tree types of models for the prediction of final academic achievement
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Silvana Gasar
2002-12-01
Full Text Available For efficient prevention of inappropriate secondary school choices and by that academic failure, school counselors need a tool for the prediction of individual pupil's final academic achievements. Using data mining techniques on pupils' data base and expert modeling, we developed several models for the prediction of final academic achievement in an individual high school educational program. For data mining, we used statistical analyses, clustering and two machine learning methods: developing classification decision trees and hierarchical decision models. Using an expert system shell DEX, an expert system, based on a hierarchical multi-attribute decision model, was developed manually. All the models were validated and evaluated from the viewpoint of their applicability. The predictive accuracy of DEX models and decision trees was equal and very satisfying, as it reached the predictive accuracy of an experienced counselor. With respect on the efficiency and difficulties in developing models, and relatively rapid changing of our education system, we propose that decision trees are used in further development of predictive models.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ashley eYaugher
2015-10-01
Full Text Available Research on psychopathology and experimental studies of sleep restriction support a relationship between sleep disruption and both internalizing and externalizing disorders. The objective of the current study was to extend this research by examining sleep, impulsivity, antisocial personality traits, and internalizing traits in a university sample. Three hundred and eighty six individuals (161 males between the ages of 18 and 27 years (M = 18.59, SD = 0.98 wore actigraphs for 7 days and completed established measures of disorder-linked personality traits and sleep quality (i.e., Personality Assessment Inventory, Triarchic Psychopathy Measure, Barratt Impulsiveness Scale-11, and the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index. As expected, sleep measures and questionnaire scores fell within the normal range of values and sex differences in sleep and personality were consistent with previous research results. Similar to findings in predominantly male forensic psychiatric settings, higher levels of impulsivity predicted poorer subjective sleep quality in both women and men. Consistent with well-established associations between depression and sleep, higher levels of depression in both sexes predicted poorer subjective sleep quality. Bidirectional analyses showed that better sleep efficiency decreases depression. Finally, moderation analyses showed that gender does have a primary role in sleep efficiency and marginal effects were found. The observed relations between sleep and personality traits in a typical university sample add to converging evidence of the relationship between sleep and psychopathology and may inform our understanding of the development of psychopathology in young adulthood.
Yaugher, Ashley C; Alexander, Gerianne M
2015-01-01
Research on psychopathology and experimental studies of sleep restriction support a relationship between sleep disruption and both internalizing and externalizing disorders. The objective of the current study was to extend this research by examining sleep, impulsivity, antisocial personality traits, and internalizing traits in a university sample. Three hundred and eighty six individuals (161 males) between the ages of 18 and 27 years (M = 18.59, SD = 0.98) wore actigraphs for 7 days and completed established measures of disorder-linked personality traits and sleep quality (i.e., Personality Assessment Inventory (PAI), Triarchic Psychopathy Measure, Barratt Impulsiveness Scale-11, and the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index). As expected, sleep measures and questionnaire scores fell within the normal range of values and sex differences in sleep and personality were consistent with previous research results. Similar to findings in predominantly male forensic psychiatric settings, higher levels of impulsivity predicted poorer subjective sleep quality in both women and men. Consistent with well-established associations between depression and sleep, higher levels of depression in both sexes predicted poorer subjective sleep quality. Bidirectional analyses showed that better sleep efficiency decreases depression. Finally, moderation analyses showed that gender does have a primary role in sleep efficiency and marginal effects were found. The observed relations between sleep and personality traits in a typical university sample add to converging evidence of the relationship between sleep and psychopathology and may inform our understanding of the development of psychopathology in young adulthood.
ANALYSIS OF EFFICIENCY OF FIRE DANGER INDICES IN FOREST FIRE PREDICTION
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Fillipe Tamiozzo Pereira Torres
Full Text Available ABSTRACT Despite the existence of different fire danger indices, the use of an inefficient index can lead to making wrong decisions on the appropriate procedures for preventing and fighting forest fires, while a trusted prediction index can help the most quantification and allocation of resources for prevention. Thereat, the objective of this study is to analyze the efficiency of Fire Weather Index (FWI, Logarithmic of Telicyn Index, Nesterov Index, cumulative indexes of precipitation - evaporation (P-EVAP and evaporation / precipitation (EVAP/P, Monte Alegre Index (FMA and Monte Alegre Changed Index (FMA+ in the prediction of forest fires for the city of Viçosa (MG. The indices were compared using the method known as Skill Score (SS taking into account the days that the indexes pointed to the risk of events with focus fire identified by satellite images on the 01/01/2005 to 31/12/2014 period. According to the results, the Logarithm of Telicyn Index (0.53257 as the most efficient for the study area, followed by the indices EVAP/P (0.46553, P-EVAP (0.43724, Nesterov (0.40445, FWI (0.39213, FMA+(0.34595 and FMA (0.28982.
Efficient mixed integer programming models for family scheduling problems
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Meng-Ye Lin
Full Text Available This paper proposes several mixed integer programming models which incorporate optimal sequence properties into the models, to solve single machine family scheduling problems. The objectives are total weighted completion time and maximum lateness, respectively. Experiment results indicate that there are remarkable improvements in computational efficiency when optimal sequence properties are included in the models. For the total weighted completion time problems, the best model solves all of the problems up to 30-jobs within 5 s, all 50-job problems within 4 min and about 1/3 of the 75-job to 100-job problems within 1 h. For maximum lateness problems, the best model solves almost all the problems up to 30-jobs within 11 min and around half of the 50-job to 100-job problems within 1 h. Keywords: Family scheduling, Sequence independent setup, Total weighted completion time, Maximum lateness
Hybrid CFD/CAA Modeling for Liftoff Acoustic Predictions
Strutzenberg, Louise L.; Liever, Peter A.
2011-01-01
This paper presents development efforts at the NASA Marshall Space flight Center to establish a hybrid Computational Fluid Dynamics and Computational Aero-Acoustics (CFD/CAA) simulation system for launch vehicle liftoff acoustics environment analysis. Acoustic prediction engineering tools based on empirical jet acoustic strength and directivity models or scaled historical measurements are of limited value in efforts to proactively design and optimize launch vehicles and launch facility configurations for liftoff acoustics. CFD based modeling approaches are now able to capture the important details of vehicle specific plume flow environment, identifY the noise generation sources, and allow assessment of the influence of launch pad geometric details and sound mitigation measures such as water injection. However, CFD methodologies are numerically too dissipative to accurately capture the propagation of the acoustic waves in the large CFD models. The hybrid CFD/CAA approach combines the high-fidelity CFD analysis capable of identifYing the acoustic sources with a fast and efficient Boundary Element Method (BEM) that accurately propagates the acoustic field from the source locations. The BEM approach was chosen for its ability to properly account for reflections and scattering of acoustic waves from launch pad structures. The paper will present an overview of the technology components of the CFD/CAA framework and discuss plans for demonstration and validation against test data.
A model to predict the beginning of the pollen season
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Toldam-Andersen, Torben Bo
1991-01-01
In order to predict the beginning of the pollen season, a model comprising the Utah phenoclirnatography Chill Unit (CU) and ASYMCUR-Growing Degree Hour (GDH) submodels were used to predict the first bloom in Alms, Ulttirrs and Berirln. The model relates environmental temperatures to rest completion...... and bud development. As phenologic parameter 14 years of pollen counts were used. The observed datcs for the beginning of the pollen seasons were defined from the pollen counts and compared with the model prediction. The CU and GDH submodels were used as: 1. A fixed day model, using only the GDH model...... for fruit trees are generally applicable, and give a reasonable description of the growth processes of other trees. This type of model can therefore be of value in predicting the start of the pollen season. The predicted dates were generally within 3-5 days of the observed. Finally the possibility of frost...
Risk prediction model: Statistical and artificial neural network approach
Paiman, Nuur Azreen; Hariri, Azian; Masood, Ibrahim
2017-04-01
Prediction models are increasingly gaining popularity and had been used in numerous areas of studies to complement and fulfilled clinical reasoning and decision making nowadays. The adoption of such models assist physician's decision making, individual's behavior, and consequently improve individual outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of care. The objective of this paper is to reviewed articles related to risk prediction model in order to understand the suitable approach, development and the validation process of risk prediction model. A qualitative review of the aims, methods and significant main outcomes of the nineteen published articles that developed risk prediction models from numerous fields were done. This paper also reviewed on how researchers develop and validate the risk prediction models based on statistical and artificial neural network approach. From the review done, some methodological recommendation in developing and validating the prediction model were highlighted. According to studies that had been done, artificial neural network approached in developing the prediction model were more accurate compared to statistical approach. However currently, only limited published literature discussed on which approach is more accurate for risk prediction model development.
Evaluation of the US Army fallout prediction model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pernick, A.; Levanon, I.
1987-01-01
The US Army fallout prediction method was evaluated against an advanced fallout prediction model--SIMFIC (Simplified Fallout Interpretive Code). The danger zone areas of the US Army method were found to be significantly greater (up to a factor of 8) than the areas of corresponding radiation hazard as predicted by SIMFIC. Nonetheless, because the US Army's method predicts danger zone lengths that are commonly shorter than the corresponding hot line distances of SIMFIC, the US Army's method is not reliably conservative
Coupling R and PHREEQC: Efficient Programming of Geochemical Models
De Lucia, Marco; Kühn, Michael
2013-01-01
We present a new interface between the geochemical simulator PHREEQC and the open source language R. It represents a tool to flexibly and efficiently program and automate every aspect of geochemical modelling. The interface helps particularly to setup and run large numbers of simulations and visualise the results. Also profiting of numberless high-quality R extension packages, performing sensitivity analysis or Monte Carlo simulations becomes straightforward. Further, an algorithm to speedup ...
Detailed models for timing and efficiency in resistive plate chambers
AUTHOR|(CDS)2067623; Lippmann, Christian
2003-01-01
We discuss detailed models for detector physics processes in Resistive Plate Chambers, in particular including the effect of attachment on the avalanche statistics. In addition, we present analytic formulas for average charges and intrinsic RPC time resolution. Using a Monte Carlo simulation including all the steps from primary ionization to the front-end electronics we discuss the dependence of efficiency and time resolution on parameters like primary ionization, avalanche statistics and threshold.
Efficient image duplicated region detection model using sequential block clustering
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Sekeh, M. A.; Maarof, M. A.; Rohani, M. F.; Mahdian, Babak
2013-01-01
Roč. 10, č. 1 (2013), s. 73-84 ISSN 1742-2876 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Image forensic * Copy–paste forgery * Local block matching Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science Impact factor: 0.986, year: 2013 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/ZOI/mahdian-efficient image duplicated region detection model using sequential block clustering.pdf
3D CFD validation of invert trap efficiency for sewer solid management using VOF model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mohammad Mohsin
2016-04-01
Full Text Available Earlier investigators have numerically carried out performance analysis of the invert trap fitted in an open channel using the stochastic discrete phase model (DPM by assuming the open channel flow to be closed conduit flow under pressure and assuming zero shear stress at the top wall. This is known as the fixed lid model. By assuming the top wall to be a shear free wall, they have been able to show that the velocity distribution looks similar to that of an open channel flow with zero velocity at the bottom and maximum velocity at the top, representing the free water surface, but no information has been provided for the pressure at the free water surface. Because of this assumption, the validation of the model in predicting the trap efficiency has performed significantly poorly. In addition, the free water surface subject to zero gauge pressure cannot be modeled using the fixed lid model because there is no provision of extra space in the form of air space for the fluctuating part of the water surface profile. It can, however, be modeled using the volume of fluid (VOF model because the VOF model is the appropriate model for open channel or free surface flow. Therefore, in the present study, three-dimensional (3D computational fluid dynamics (CFD modeling with the VOF model, which considers open channel flow with a free water surface, along with the stochastic DPM, was used to model the trap efficiency of an invert trap fitted in an open rectangular channel. The governing mathematical flow equations of the VOF model were solved using the ANSYS Fluent 14.0 software, reproducing the experimental conditions exactly. The results show that the 3D CFD predictions using the VOF model closely fit the experimental data for glass bead particles.
Comparative Evaluation of Some Crop Yield Prediction Models ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
A computer program was adopted from the work of Hill et al. (1982) to calibrate and test three of the existing yield prediction models using tropical cowpea yieldÐweather data. The models tested were Hanks Model (first and second versions). Stewart Model (first and second versions) and HallÐButcher Model. Three sets of ...
Comparative Evaluation of Some Crop Yield Prediction Models ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
(1982) to calibrate and test three of the existing yield prediction models using tropical cowpea yieldÐweather data. The models tested were Hanks Model (first and second versions). Stewart Model (first and second versions) and HallÐButcher Model. Three sets of cowpea yield-water use and weather data were collected.
Personalization of models with many model parameters: an efficient sensitivity analysis approach.
Donders, W P; Huberts, W; van de Vosse, F N; Delhaas, T
2015-10-01
Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis are indispensable for patient-specific applications of models that enhance diagnosis or aid decision-making. Variance-based sensitivity analysis methods, which apportion each fraction of the output uncertainty (variance) to the effects of individual input parameters or their interactions, are considered the gold standard. The variance portions are called the Sobol sensitivity indices and can be estimated by a Monte Carlo (MC) approach (e.g., Saltelli's method [1]) or by employing a metamodel (e.g., the (generalized) polynomial chaos expansion (gPCE) [2, 3]). All these methods require a large number of model evaluations when estimating the Sobol sensitivity indices for models with many parameters [4]. To reduce the computational cost, we introduce a two-step approach. In the first step, a subset of important parameters is identified for each output of interest using the screening method of Morris [5]. In the second step, a quantitative variance-based sensitivity analysis is performed using gPCE. Efficient sampling strategies are introduced to minimize the number of model runs required to obtain the sensitivity indices for models considering multiple outputs. The approach is tested using a model that was developed for predicting post-operative flows after creation of a vascular access for renal failure patients. We compare the sensitivity indices obtained with the novel two-step approach with those obtained from a reference analysis that applies Saltelli's MC method. The two-step approach was found to yield accurate estimates of the sensitivity indices at two orders of magnitude lower computational cost. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Prediction of speech intelligibility based on an auditory preprocessing model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christiansen, Claus Forup Corlin; Pedersen, Michael Syskind; Dau, Torsten
2010-01-01
Classical speech intelligibility models, such as the speech transmission index (STI) and the speech intelligibility index (SII) are based on calculations on the physical acoustic signals. The present study predicts speech intelligibility by combining a psychoacoustically validated model of auditory...
Modelling microbial interactions and food structure in predictive microbiology
Malakar, P.K.
2002-01-01
Keywords: modelling, dynamic models, microbial interactions, diffusion, microgradients, colony growth, predictive microbiology.
Growth response of microorganisms in foods is a complex process. Innovations in food production and preservation techniques have resulted in adoption of
Ocean wave prediction using numerical and neural network models
Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)
Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.
This paper presents an overview of the development of the numerical wave prediction models and recently used neural networks for ocean wave hindcasting and forecasting. The numerical wave models express the physical concepts of the phenomena...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ma, Denglong; Zhang, Zaoxiao
2016-01-01
Highlights: • The intelligent network models were built to predict contaminant gas concentrations. • The improved network models coupled with Gaussian dispersion model were presented. • New model has high efficiency and accuracy for concentration prediction. • New model were applied to indentify the leakage source with satisfied results. - Abstract: Gas dispersion model is important for predicting the gas concentrations when contaminant gas leakage occurs. Intelligent network models such as radial basis function (RBF), back propagation (BP) neural network and support vector machine (SVM) model can be used for gas dispersion prediction. However, the prediction results from these network models with too many inputs based on original monitoring parameters are not in good agreement with the experimental data. Then, a new series of machine learning algorithms (MLA) models combined classic Gaussian model with MLA algorithm has been presented. The prediction results from new models are improved greatly. Among these models, Gaussian-SVM model performs best and its computation time is close to that of classic Gaussian dispersion model. Finally, Gaussian-MLA models were applied to identifying the emission source parameters with the particle swarm optimization (PSO) method. The estimation performance of PSO with Gaussian-MLA is better than that with Gaussian, Lagrangian stochastic (LS) dispersion model and network models based on original monitoring parameters. Hence, the new prediction model based on Gaussian-MLA is potentially a good method to predict contaminant gas dispersion as well as a good forward model in emission source parameters identification problem.
A Prediction Model of the Capillary Pressure J-Function.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
W S Xu
Full Text Available The capillary pressure J-function is a dimensionless measure of the capillary pressure of a fluid in a porous medium. The function was derived based on a capillary bundle model. However, the dependence of the J-function on the saturation Sw is not well understood. A prediction model for it is presented based on capillary pressure model, and the J-function prediction model is a power function instead of an exponential or polynomial function. Relative permeability is calculated with the J-function prediction model, resulting in an easier calculation and results that are more representative.
Policy modeling for energy efficiency improvement in US industry
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Worrell, Ernst; Price, Lynn; Ruth, Michael
2001-01-01
We are at the beginning of a process of evaluating and modeling the contribution of policies to improve energy efficiency. Three recent policy studies trying to assess the impact of energy efficiency policies in the United States are reviewed. The studies represent an important step in the analysis of climate change mitigation strategies. All studies model the estimated policy impact, rather than the policy itself. Often the policy impacts are based on assumptions, as the effects of a policy are not certain. Most models only incorporate economic (or price) tools, which recent studies have proven to be insufficient to estimate the impacts, costs and benefits of mitigation strategies. The reviewed studies are a first effort to capture the effects of non-price policies. The studies contribute to a better understanding of the role of policies in improving energy efficiency and mitigating climate change. All policy scenarios results in substantial energy savings compared to the baseline scenario used, as well as substantial net benefits to the U.S. economy
Efficient Stochastic Inversion Using Adjoint Models and Kernel-PCA
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Thimmisetty, Charanraj A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). Center for Applied Scientific Computing; Zhao, Wenju [Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL (United States). Dept. of Scientific Computing; Chen, Xiao [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). Center for Applied Scientific Computing; Tong, Charles H. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). Center for Applied Scientific Computing; White, Joshua A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). Atmospheric, Earth and Energy Division
2017-10-18
Performing stochastic inversion on a computationally expensive forward simulation model with a high-dimensional uncertain parameter space (e.g. a spatial random field) is computationally prohibitive even when gradient information can be computed efficiently. Moreover, the ‘nonlinear’ mapping from parameters to observables generally gives rise to non-Gaussian posteriors even with Gaussian priors, thus hampering the use of efficient inversion algorithms designed for models with Gaussian assumptions. In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian stochastic inversion methodology, which is characterized by a tight coupling between the gradient-based Langevin Markov Chain Monte Carlo (LMCMC) method and a kernel principal component analysis (KPCA). This approach addresses the ‘curse-of-dimensionality’ via KPCA to identify a low-dimensional feature space within the high-dimensional and nonlinearly correlated parameter space. In addition, non-Gaussian posterior distributions are estimated via an efficient LMCMC method on the projected low-dimensional feature space. We will demonstrate this computational framework by integrating and adapting our recent data-driven statistics-on-manifolds constructions and reduction-through-projection techniques to a linear elasticity model.
An Efficient Semi-supervised Learning Approach to Predict SH2 Domain Mediated Interactions.
Kundu, Kousik; Backofen, Rolf
2017-01-01
Src homology 2 (SH2) domain is an important subclass of modular protein domains that plays an indispensable role in several biological processes in eukaryotes. SH2 domains specifically bind to the phosphotyrosine residue of their binding peptides to facilitate various molecular functions. For determining the subtle binding specificities of SH2 domains, it is very important to understand the intriguing mechanisms by which these domains recognize their target peptides in a complex cellular environment. There are several attempts have been made to predict SH2-peptide interactions using high-throughput data. However, these high-throughput data are often affected by a low signal to noise ratio. Furthermore, the prediction methods have several additional shortcomings, such as linearity problem, high computational complexity, etc. Thus, computational identification of SH2-peptide interactions using high-throughput data remains challenging. Here, we propose a machine learning approach based on an efficient semi-supervised learning technique for the prediction of 51 SH2 domain mediated interactions in the human proteome. In our study, we have successfully employed several strategies to tackle the major problems in computational identification of SH2-peptide interactions.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Faramarz eFaghihi
2015-03-01
Full Text Available Information processing in the hippocampus begins by transferring spiking activity of the Entorhinal Cortex (EC into the Dentate Gyrus (DG. Activity pattern in the EC is separated by the DG such that it plays an important role in hippocampal functions including memory. The structural and physiological parameters of these neural networks enable the hippocampus to be efficient in encoding a large number of inputs that animals receive and process in their life time. The neural encoding capacity of the DG depends on its single neurons encoding and pattern separation efficiency. In this study, encoding by the DG is modelled such that single neurons and pattern separation efficiency are measured using simulations of different parameter values. For this purpose, a probabilistic model of single neurons efficiency is presented to study the role of structural and physiological parameters. Known neurons number of the EC and the DG is used to construct a neural network by electrophysiological features of neuron in the DG. Separated inputs as activated neurons in the EC with different firing probabilities are presented into the DG. For different connectivity rates between the EC and DG, pattern separation efficiency of the DG is measured. The results show that in the absence of feedback inhibition on the DG neurons, the DG demonstrates low separation efficiency and high firing frequency. Feedback inhibition can increase separation efficiency while resulting in very low single neuron’s encoding efficiency in the DG and very low firing frequency of neurons in the DG (sparse spiking. This work presents a mechanistic explanation for experimental observations in the hippocampus, in combination with theoretical measures. Moreover, the model predicts a critical role for impaired inhibitory neurons in schizophrenia where deficiency in pattern separation of the DG has been observed.
Wu, Hao; Ihme, Matthias
2017-11-01
The modeling of turbulent combustion requires the consideration of different physico-chemical processes, involving a vast range of time and length scales as well as a large number of scalar quantities. To reduce the computational complexity, various combustion models are developed. Many of them can be abstracted using a lower-dimensional manifold representation. A key issue in using such lower-dimensional combustion models is the assessment as to whether a particular combustion model is adequate in representing a certain flame configuration. The Pareto-efficient combustion (PEC) modeling framework was developed to perform dynamic combustion model adaptation based on various existing manifold models. In this work, the PEC model is applied to a turbulent flame simulation, in which a computationally efficient flamelet-based combustion model is used in together with a high-fidelity finite-rate chemistry model. The combination of these two models achieves high accuracy in predicting pollutant species at a relatively low computational cost. The relevant numerical methods and parallelization techniques are also discussed in this work.
Standardizing the performance evaluation of short-term wind prediction models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Madsen, Henrik; Pinson, Pierre; Kariniotakis, G.
2005-01-01
Short-term wind power prediction is a primary requirement for efficient large-scale integration of wind generation in power systems and electricity markets. The choice of an appropriate prediction model among the numerous available models is not trivial, and has to be based on an objective...... evaluation of model performance. This paper proposes a standardized protocol for the evaluation of short-term wind-poser preciction systems. A number of reference prediction models are also described, and their use for performance comparison is analysed. The use of the protocol is demonstrated using results...... from both on-shore and off-shore wind forms. The work was developed in the frame of the Anemos project (EU R&D project) where the protocol has been used to evaluate more than 10 prediction systems....
Fast Prediction and Evaluation of Gravitational Waveforms Using Surrogate Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Scott E. Field
2014-07-01
Full Text Available We propose a solution to the problem of quickly and accurately predicting gravitational waveforms within any given physical model. The method is relevant for both real-time applications and more traditional scenarios where the generation of waveforms using standard methods can be prohibitively expensive. Our approach is based on three offline steps resulting in an accurate reduced order model in both parameter and physical dimensions that can be used as a surrogate for the true or fiducial waveform family. First, a set of m parameter values is determined using a greedy algorithm from which a reduced basis representation is constructed. Second, these m parameters induce the selection of m time values for interpolating a waveform time series using an empirical interpolant that is built for the fiducial waveform family. Third, a fit in the parameter dimension is performed for the waveform’s value at each of these m times. The cost of predicting L waveform time samples for a generic parameter choice is of order O(mL+mc_{fit} online operations, where c_{fit} denotes the fitting function operation count and, typically, m≪L. The result is a compact, computationally efficient, and accurate surrogate model that retains the original physics of the fiducial waveform family while also being fast to evaluate. We generate accurate surrogate models for effective-one-body waveforms of nonspinning binary black hole coalescences with durations as long as 10^{5}M, mass ratios from 1 to 10, and for multiple spherical harmonic modes. We find that these surrogates are more than 3 orders of magnitude faster to evaluate as compared to the cost of generating effective-one-body waveforms in standard ways. Surrogate model building for other waveform families and models follows the same steps and has the same low computational online scaling cost. For expensive numerical simulations of binary black hole coalescences, we thus anticipate extremely large speedups in
A unified tool for performance modelling and prediction
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gilmore, Stephen; Kloul, Leila
2005-01-01
We describe a novel performability modelling approach, which facilitates the efficient solution of performance models extracted from high-level descriptions of systems. The notation which we use for our high-level designs is the Unified Modelling Language (UML) graphical modelling language. The technology which provides the efficient representation capability for the underlying performance model is the multi-terminal binary decision diagram (MTBDD)-based PRISM probabilistic model checker. The UML models are compiled through an intermediate language, the stochastic process algebra PEPA, before translation into MTBDDs for solution. We illustrate our approach on a real-world analysis problem from the domain of mobile telephony
Statistical model based gender prediction for targeted NGS clinical panels
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Palani Kannan Kandavel
2017-12-01
The reference test dataset are being used to test the model. The sensitivity on predicting the gender has been increased from the current “genotype composition in ChrX” based approach. In addition, the prediction score given by the model can be used to evaluate the quality of clinical dataset. The higher prediction score towards its respective gender indicates the higher quality of sequenced data.
Lightning Forecasts and Data Assimilation into Numerical Weather Prediction Models
MacGorman, D. R.; Mansell, E. R.; Fierro, A.; Ziegler, C.
2012-12-01
This presentation reviews two aspects of lightning in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models: forecasting lightning and assimilating lightning data into NWP models to improve weather forecasts. One of the earliest routine forecasts of lightning was developed for fire weather operations. This approach used a multi-parameter regression analysis of archived cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data and archived NWP data to optimize the combination of model state variables to use in forecast equations for various CG rates. Since then, understanding of how storms produce lightning has improved greatly. As the treatment of ice in microphysics packages used by NWP models has improved and the horizontal resolution of models has begun approaching convection-permitting scales (with convection-resolving scales on the horizon), it is becoming possible to use this improved understanding in NWP models to predict lightning more directly. An important role for data assimilation in NWP models is to depict the location, timing, and spatial extent of thunderstorms during model spin-up so that the effects of prior convection that can strongly influence future thunderstorm activity, such as updrafts and outflow boundaries, can be included in the initial state of a NWP model run. Radar data have traditionally been used, but systems that map lightning activity with varying degrees of coverage, detail, and detection efficiency are now available routinely over large regions and reveal information about storms that is complementary to the information provided by radar. Because data from lightning mapping systems are compact, easily handled, and reliably indicate the location and timing of thunderstorms, even in regions with little or no radar coverage, several groups have investigated techniques for assimilating these data into NWP models. This application will become even more valuable with the launch of the Geostationary Lightning Mapper on the GOES-R satellite, which will extend routine
comparative analysis of two mathematical models for prediction
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Abstract. A mathematical modeling for prediction of compressive strength of sandcrete blocks was performed using statistical analysis for the sandcrete block data ob- tained from experimental work done in this study. The models used are Scheffes and Osadebes optimization theories to predict the compressive strength of ...
Comparison of predictive models for the early diagnosis of diabetes
M. Jahani (Meysam); M. Mahdavi (Mahdi)
2016-01-01
textabstractObjectives: This study develops neural network models to improve the prediction of diabetes using clinical and lifestyle characteristics. Prediction models were developed using a combination of approaches and concepts. Methods: We used memetic algorithms to update weights and to improve
Testing and analysis of internal hardwood log defect prediction models
R. Edward. Thomas
2011-01-01
The severity and location of internal defects determine the quality and value of lumber sawn from hardwood logs. Models have been developed to predict the size and position of internal defects based on external defect indicator measurements. These models were shown to predict approximately 80% of all internal knots based on external knot indicators. However, the size...
Hidden Markov Model for quantitative prediction of snowfall
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) has been developed for prediction of quantitative snowfall in Pir-Panjal and Great Himalayan mountain ranges of Indian Himalaya. The model predicts snowfall for two days in advance using daily recorded nine meteorological variables of past 20 winters from 1992–2012. There are six ...
Bayesian variable order Markov models: Towards Bayesian predictive state representations
Dimitrakakis, C.
2009-01-01
We present a Bayesian variable order Markov model that shares many similarities with predictive state representations. The resulting models are compact and much easier to specify and learn than classical predictive state representations. Moreover, we show that they significantly outperform a more
Demonstrating the improvement of predictive maturity of a computational model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Unal, Cetin [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Atamturktur, Huriye S [CLEMSON UNIV.
2010-01-01
We demonstrate an improvement of predictive capability brought to a non-linear material model using a combination of test data, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, and calibration. A model that captures increasingly complicated phenomena, such as plasticity, temperature and strain rate effects, is analyzed. Predictive maturity is defined, here, as the accuracy of the model to predict multiple Hopkinson bar experiments. A statistical discrepancy quantifies the systematic disagreement (bias) between measurements and predictions. Our hypothesis is that improving the predictive capability of a model should translate into better agreement between measurements and predictions. This agreement, in turn, should lead to a smaller discrepancy. We have recently proposed to use discrepancy and coverage, that is, the extent to which the physical experiments used for calibration populate the regime of applicability of the model, as basis to define a Predictive Maturity Index (PMI). It was shown that predictive maturity could be improved when additional physical tests are made available to increase coverage of the regime of applicability. This contribution illustrates how the PMI changes as 'better' physics are implemented in the model. The application is the non-linear Preston-Tonks-Wallace (PTW) strength model applied to Beryllium metal. We demonstrate that our framework tracks the evolution of maturity of the PTW model. Robustness of the PMI with respect to the selection of coefficients needed in its definition is also studied.
Refining the Committee Approach and Uncertainty Prediction in Hydrological Modelling
Kayastha, N.
2014-01-01
Due to the complexity of hydrological systems a single model may be unable to capture the full range of a catchment response and accurately predict the streamflows. The multi modelling approach opens up possibilities for handling such difficulties and allows improve the predictive capability of
Refining the committee approach and uncertainty prediction in hydrological modelling
Kayastha, N.
2014-01-01
Due to the complexity of hydrological systems a single model may be unable to capture the full range of a catchment response and accurately predict the streamflows. The multi modelling approach opens up possibilities for handling such difficulties and allows improve the predictive capability of
Wind turbine control and model predictive control for uncertain systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Thomsen, Sven Creutz
as disturbance models for controller design. The theoretical study deals with Model Predictive Control (MPC). MPC is an optimal control method which is characterized by the use of a receding prediction horizon. MPC has risen in popularity due to its inherent ability to systematically account for time...
Hidden Markov Model for quantitative prediction of snowfall and ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) has been developed for prediction of quantitative snowfall in Pir-Panjal and Great Himalayan mountain ranges of Indian Himalaya. The model predicts snowfall for two days in advance using daily recorded nine meteorological variables of past 20 winters from 1992–2012. There are six ...
Model predictive control of a 3-DOF helicopter system using ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
... by simulation, and its performance is compared with that achieved by linear model predictive control (LMPC). Keywords: nonlinear systems, helicopter dynamics, MIMO systems, model predictive control, successive linearization. International Journal of Engineering, Science and Technology, Vol. 2, No. 10, 2010, pp. 9-19 ...
Models for predicting fuel consumption in sagebrush-dominated ecosystems
Clinton S. Wright
2013-01-01
Fuel consumption predictions are necessary to accurately estimate or model fire effects, including pollutant emissions during wildland fires. Fuel and environmental measurements on a series of operational prescribed fires were used to develop empirical models for predicting fuel consumption in big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentate Nutt.) ecosystems....
Comparative Analysis of Two Mathematical Models for Prediction of ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
A mathematical modeling for prediction of compressive strength of sandcrete blocks was performed using statistical analysis for the sandcrete block data obtained from experimental work done in this study. The models used are Scheffe's and Osadebe's optimization theories to predict the compressive strength of sandcrete ...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hampf, Benjamin
2011-08-15
In this paper we present a new approach to evaluate the environmental efficiency of decision making units. We propose a model that describes a two-stage process consisting of a production and an end-of-pipe abatement stage with the environmental efficiency being determined by the efficiency of both stages. Taking the dependencies between the two stages into account, we show how nonparametric methods can be used to measure environmental efficiency and to decompose it into production and abatement efficiency. For an empirical illustration we apply our model to an analysis of U.S. power plants.
A mathematical model for predicting earthquake occurrence ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
We consider the continental crust under damage. We use the observed results of microseism in many seismic stations of the world which was established to study the time series of the activities of the continental crust with a view to predicting possible time of occurrence of earthquake. We consider microseism time series ...
Model for predicting the injury severity score.
Hagiwara, Shuichi; Oshima, Kiyohiro; Murata, Masato; Kaneko, Minoru; Aoki, Makoto; Kanbe, Masahiko; Nakamura, Takuro; Ohyama, Yoshio; Tamura, Jun'ichi
2015-07-01
To determine the formula that predicts the injury severity score from parameters that are obtained in the emergency department at arrival. We reviewed the medical records of trauma patients who were transferred to the emergency department of Gunma University Hospital between January 2010 and December 2010. The injury severity score, age, mean blood pressure, heart rate, Glasgow coma scale, hemoglobin, hematocrit, red blood cell count, platelet count, fibrinogen, international normalized ratio of prothrombin time, activated partial thromboplastin time, and fibrin degradation products, were examined in those patients on arrival. To determine the formula that predicts the injury severity score, multiple linear regression analysis was carried out. The injury severity score was set as the dependent variable, and the other parameters were set as candidate objective variables. IBM spss Statistics 20 was used for the statistical analysis. Statistical significance was set at P Watson ratio was 2.200. A formula for predicting the injury severity score in trauma patients was developed with ordinary parameters such as fibrin degradation products and mean blood pressure. This formula is useful because we can predict the injury severity score easily in the emergency department.
Traffic Flow Prediction Model for Large-Scale Road Network Based on Cloud Computing
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhaosheng Yang
2014-01-01
Full Text Available To increase the efficiency and precision of large-scale road network traffic flow prediction, a genetic algorithm-support vector machine (GA-SVM model based on cloud computing is proposed in this paper, which is based on the analysis of the characteristics and defects of genetic algorithm and support vector machine. In cloud computing environment, firstly, SVM parameters are optimized by the parallel genetic algorithm, and then this optimized parallel SVM model is used to predict traffic flow. On the basis of the traffic flow data of Haizhu District in Guangzhou City, the proposed model was verified and compared with the serial GA-SVM model and parallel GA-SVM model based on MPI (message passing interface. The results demonstrate that the parallel GA-SVM model based on cloud computing has higher prediction accuracy, shorter running time, and higher speedup.
A Computationally-Efficient Numerical Model to Characterize the Noise Behavior of Metal-Framed Walls
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Arun Arjunan
2015-08-01
Full Text Available Architects, designers, and engineers are making great efforts to design acoustically-efficient metal-framed walls, minimizing acoustic bridging. Therefore, efficient simulation models to predict the acoustic insulation complying with ISO 10140 are needed at a design stage. In order to achieve this, a numerical model consisting of two fluid-filled reverberation chambers, partitioned using a metal-framed wall, is to be simulated at one-third-octaves. This produces a large simulation model consisting of several millions of nodes and elements. Therefore, efficient meshing procedures are necessary to obtain better solution times and to effectively utilise computational resources. Such models should also demonstrate effective Fluid-Structure Interaction (FSI along with acoustic-fluid coupling to simulate a realistic scenario. In this contribution, the development of a finite element frequency-dependent mesh model that can characterize the sound insulation of metal-framed walls is presented. Preliminary results on the application of the proposed model to study the geometric contribution of stud frames on the overall acoustic performance of metal-framed walls are also presented. It is considered that the presented numerical model can be used to effectively visualize the noise behaviour of advanced materials and multi-material structures.
Olayan, Rawan S; Ashoor, Haitham; Bajic, Vladimir B
2018-04-01
Finding computationally drug-target interactions (DTIs) is a convenient strategy to identify new DTIs at low cost with reasonable accuracy. However, the current DTI prediction methods suffer the high false positive prediction rate. We developed DDR, a novel method that improves the DTI prediction accuracy. DDR is based on the use of a heterogeneous graph that contains known DTIs with multiple similarities between drugs and multiple similarities between target proteins. DDR applies non-linear similarity fusion method to combine different similarities. Before fusion, DDR performs a pre-processing step where a subset of similarities is selected in a heuristic process to obtain an optimized combination of similarities. Then, DDR applies a random forest model using different graph-based features extracted from the DTI heterogeneous graph. Using 5-repeats of 10-fold cross-validation, three testing setups, and the weighted average of area under the precision-recall curve (AUPR) scores, we show that DDR significantly reduces the AUPR score error relative to the next best start-of-the-art method for predicting DTIs by 34% when the drugs are new, by 23% when targets are new and by 34% when the drugs and the targets are known but not all DTIs between them are not known. Using independent sources of evidence, we verify as correct 22 out of the top 25 DDR novel predictions. This suggests that DDR can be used as an efficient method to identify correct DTIs. The data and code are provided at https://bitbucket.org/RSO24/ddr/. vladimir.bajic@kaust.edu.sa. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.
Towards an efficient multiphysics model for nuclear reactor dynamics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Obaidurrahman K.
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Availability of fast computer resources nowadays has facilitated more in-depth modeling of complex engineering systems which involve strong multiphysics interactions. This multiphysics modeling is an important necessity in nuclear reactor safety studies where efforts are being made worldwide to combine the knowledge from all associated disciplines at one place to accomplish the most realistic simulation of involved phenomenon. On these lines coupled modeling of nuclear reactor neutron kinetics, fuel heat transfer and coolant transport is a regular practice nowadays for transient analysis of reactor core. However optimization between modeling accuracy and computational economy has always been a challenging task to ensure the adequate degree of reliability in such extensive numerical exercises. Complex reactor core modeling involves estimation of evolving 3-D core thermal state, which in turn demands an expensive multichannel based detailed core thermal hydraulics model. A novel approach of power weighted coupling between core neutronics and thermal hydraulics presented in this work aims to reduce the bulk of core thermal calculations in core dynamics modeling to a significant extent without compromising accuracy of computation. Coupled core model has been validated against a series of international benchmarks. Accuracy and computational efficiency of the proposed multiphysics model has been demonstrated by analyzing a reactivity initiated transient.
Hybrid Building Performance Simulation Models for Industrial Energy Efficiency Applications
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Peter Smolek
2018-06-01
Full Text Available In the challenge of achieving environmental sustainability, industrial production plants, as large contributors to the overall energy demand of a country, are prime candidates for applying energy efficiency measures. A modelling approach using cubes is used to decompose a production facility into manageable modules. All aspects of the facility are considered, classified into the building, energy system, production and logistics. This approach leads to specific challenges for building performance simulations since all parts of the facility are highly interconnected. To meet this challenge, models for the building, thermal zones, energy converters and energy grids are presented and the interfaces to the production and logistics equipment are illustrated. The advantages and limitations of the chosen approach are discussed. In an example implementation, the feasibility of the approach and models is shown. Different scenarios are simulated to highlight the models and the results are compared.
A Novel Modelling Approach for Predicting Forest Growth and Yield under Climate Change.
Ashraf, M Irfan; Meng, Fan-Rui; Bourque, Charles P-A; MacLean, David A
2015-01-01
Global climate is changing due to increasing anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Forest managers need growth and yield models that can be used to predict future forest dynamics during the transition period of present-day forests under a changing climatic regime. In this study, we developed a forest growth and yield model that can be used to predict individual-tree growth under current and projected future climatic conditions. The model was constructed by integrating historical tree growth records with predictions from an ecological process-based model using neural networks. The new model predicts basal area (BA) and volume growth for individual trees in pure or mixed species forests. For model development, tree-growth data under current climatic conditions were obtained using over 3000 permanent sample plots from the Province of Nova Scotia, Canada. Data to reflect tree growth under a changing climatic regime were projected with JABOWA-3 (an ecological process-based model). Model validation with designated data produced model efficiencies of 0.82 and 0.89 in predicting individual-tree BA and volume growth. Model efficiency is a relative index of model performance, where 1 indicates an ideal fit, while values lower than zero means the predictions are no better than the average of the observations. Overall mean prediction error (BIAS) of basal area and volume growth predictions was nominal (i.e., for BA: -0.0177 cm(2) 5-year(-1) and volume: 0.0008 m(3) 5-year(-1)). Model variability described by root mean squared error (RMSE) in basal area prediction was 40.53 cm(2) 5-year(-1) and 0.0393 m(3) 5-year(-1) in volume prediction. The new modelling approach has potential to reduce uncertainties in growth and yield predictions under different climate change scenarios. This novel approach provides an avenue for forest managers to generate required information for the management of forests in transitional periods of climate change. Artificial intelligence technology
A Novel Modelling Approach for Predicting Forest Growth and Yield under Climate Change.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M Irfan Ashraf
Full Text Available Global climate is changing due to increasing anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Forest managers need growth and yield models that can be used to predict future forest dynamics during the transition period of present-day forests under a changing climatic regime. In this study, we developed a forest growth and yield model that can be used to predict individual-tree growth under current and projected future climatic conditions. The model was constructed by integrating historical tree growth records with predictions from an ecological process-based model using neural networks. The new model predicts basal area (BA and volume growth for individual trees in pure or mixed species forests. For model development, tree-growth data under current climatic conditions were obtained using over 3000 permanent sample plots from the Province of Nova Scotia, Canada. Data to reflect tree growth under a changing climatic regime were projected with JABOWA-3 (an ecological process-based model. Model validation with designated data produced model efficiencies of 0.82 and 0.89 in predicting individual-tree BA and volume growth. Model efficiency is a relative index of model performance, where 1 indicates an ideal fit, while values lower than zero means the predictions are no better than the average of the observations. Overall mean prediction error (BIAS of basal area and volume growth predictions was nominal (i.e., for BA: -0.0177 cm(2 5-year(-1 and volume: 0.0008 m(3 5-year(-1. Model variability described by root mean squared error (RMSE in basal area prediction was 40.53 cm(2 5-year(-1 and 0.0393 m(3 5-year(-1 in volume prediction. The new modelling approach has potential to reduce uncertainties in growth and yield predictions under different climate change scenarios. This novel approach provides an avenue for forest managers to generate required information for the management of forests in transitional periods of climate change. Artificial intelligence
Steiner, Matthew A.; Klein, Robert W.; Calhoun, Christopher A.; Knezevic, Marko; Garlea, Elena; Agnew, Sean R.
2017-11-01
Finite element (FE) analysis was used to simulate the strain history of an α-uranium foil during cold straight-rolling, with the sheet modeled as an isotropic elastoplastic continuum. The resulting strain history was then used as input for a viscoplastic self-consistent (VPSC) polycrystal plasticity model to simulate crystallographic texture evolution. Mid-plane textures predicted via the combined FE→VPSC approach show alignment of the (010) poles along the rolling direction (RD), and the (001) poles along the normal direction (ND) with a symmetric splitting along RD. The surface texture is similar to that of the mid-plane, but with a shear-induced asymmetry that favors one of the RD split features of the (001) pole figure. Both the mid-plane and surface textures predicted by the FE→VPSC approach agree with published experimental results for cold straight-rolled α-uranium plates, as well as predictions made by a more computationally intensive full-field crystal plasticity based finite element model. α-uranium foils produced by cold-rolling must typically undergo a recrystallization anneal to restore ductility prior to their final application, resulting in significant texture evolution from the cold-rolled plate deformation texture. Using the texture measured from a foil in the final recrystallized state, coefficients of thermal expansion and the elastic stiffness tensors were calculated using a thermo-elastic self-consistent model, and the anisotropic yield loci and flow curves along the RD, TD, and ND were predicted using the VPSC code.
Econometric models for predicting confusion crop ratios
Umberger, D. E.; Proctor, M. H.; Clark, J. E.; Eisgruber, L. M.; Braschler, C. B. (Principal Investigator)
1979-01-01
Results for both the United States and Canada show that econometric models can provide estimates of confusion crop ratios that are more accurate than historical ratios. Whether these models can support the LACIE 90/90 accuracy criterion is uncertain. In the United States, experimenting with additional model formulations could provide improved methods models in some CRD's, particularly in winter wheat. Improved models may also be possible for the Canadian CD's. The more aggressive province/state models outperformed individual CD/CRD models. This result was expected partly because acreage statistics are based on sampling procedures, and the sampling precision declines from the province/state to the CD/CRD level. Declining sampling precision and the need to substitute province/state data for the CD/CRD data introduced measurement error into the CD/CRD models.
Rubinstein, Justin L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Chen, Kate Huihsuan; Uchida, Naoki
2012-01-01
The behavior of individual events in repeating earthquake sequences in California, Taiwan and Japan is better predicted by a model with fixed inter-event time or fixed slip than it is by the time- and slip-predictable models for earthquake occurrence. Given that repeating earthquakes are highly regular in both inter-event time and seismic moment, the time- and slip-predictable models seem ideally suited to explain their behavior. Taken together with evidence from the companion manuscript that shows similar results for laboratory experiments we conclude that the short-term predictions of the time- and slip-predictable models should be rejected in favor of earthquake models that assume either fixed slip or fixed recurrence interval. This implies that the elastic rebound model underlying the time- and slip-predictable models offers no additional value in describing earthquake behavior in an event-to-event sense, but its value in a long-term sense cannot be determined. These models likely fail because they rely on assumptions that oversimplify the earthquake cycle. We note that the time and slip of these events is predicted quite well by fixed slip and fixed recurrence models, so in some sense they are time- and slip-predictable. While fixed recurrence and slip models better predict repeating earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models, we observe a correlation between slip and the preceding recurrence time for many repeating earthquake sequences in Parkfield, California. This correlation is not found in other regions, and the sequences with the correlative slip-predictable behavior are not distinguishable from nearby earthquake sequences that do not exhibit this behavior.
Modeling of hybrid vehicle fuel economy and fuel engine efficiency
Wu, Wei
"Near-CV" (i.e., near-conventional vehicle) hybrid vehicles, with an internal combustion engine, and a supplementary storage with low-weight, low-energy but high-power capacity, are analyzed. This design avoids the shortcoming of the "near-EV" and the "dual-mode" hybrid vehicles that need a large energy storage system (in terms of energy capacity and weight). The small storage is used to optimize engine energy management and can provide power when needed. The energy advantage of the "near-CV" design is to reduce reliance on the engine at low power, to enable regenerative braking, and to provide good performance with a small engine. The fuel consumption of internal combustion engines, which might be applied to hybrid vehicles, is analyzed by building simple analytical models that reflect the engines' energy loss characteristics. Both diesel and gasoline engines are modeled. The simple analytical models describe engine fuel consumption at any speed and load point by describing the engine's indicated efficiency and friction. The engine's indicated efficiency and heat loss are described in terms of several easy-to-obtain engine parameters, e.g., compression ratio, displacement, bore and stroke. Engine friction is described in terms of parameters obtained by fitting available fuel measurements on several diesel and spark-ignition engines. The engine models developed are shown to conform closely to experimental fuel consumption and motored friction data. A model of the energy use of "near-CV" hybrid vehicles with different storage mechanism is created, based on simple algebraic description of the components. With powertrain downsizing and hybridization, a "near-CV" hybrid vehicle can obtain a factor of approximately two in overall fuel efficiency (mpg) improvement, without considering reductions in the vehicle load.
Adding propensity scores to pure prediction models fails to improve predictive performance
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Amy S. Nowacki
2013-08-01
Full Text Available Background. Propensity score usage seems to be growing in popularity leading researchers to question the possible role of propensity scores in prediction modeling, despite the lack of a theoretical rationale. It is suspected that such requests are due to the lack of differentiation regarding the goals of predictive modeling versus causal inference modeling. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to formally examine the effect of propensity scores on predictive performance. Our hypothesis is that a multivariable regression model that adjusts for all covariates will perform as well as or better than those models utilizing propensity scores with respect to model discrimination and calibration.Methods. The most commonly encountered statistical scenarios for medical prediction (logistic and proportional hazards regression were used to investigate this research question. Random cross-validation was performed 500 times to correct for optimism. The multivariable regression models adjusting for all covariates were compared with models that included adjustment for or weighting with the propensity scores. The methods were compared based on three predictive performance measures: (1 concordance indices; (2 Brier scores; and (3 calibration curves.Results. Multivariable models adjusting for all covariates had the highest average concordance index, the lowest average Brier score, and the best calibration. Propensity score adjustment and inverse probability weighting models without adjustment for all covariates performed worse than full models and failed to improve predictive performance with full covariate adjustment.Conclusion. Propensity score techniques did not improve prediction performance measures beyond multivariable adjustment. Propensity scores are not recommended if the analytical goal is pure prediction modeling.
PEEX Modelling Platform for Seamless Environmental Prediction
Baklanov, Alexander; Mahura, Alexander; Arnold, Stephen; Makkonen, Risto; Petäjä, Tuukka; Kerminen, Veli-Matti; Lappalainen, Hanna K.; Ezau, Igor; Nuterman, Roman; Zhang, Wen; Penenko, Alexey; Gordov, Evgeny; Zilitinkevich, Sergej; Kulmala, Markku
2017-04-01
The Pan-Eurasian EXperiment (PEEX) is a multidisciplinary, multi-scale research programme stared in 2012 and aimed at resolving the major uncertainties in Earth System Science and global sustainability issues concerning the Arctic and boreal Northern Eurasian regions and in China. Such challenges include climate change, air quality, biodiversity loss, chemicalization, food supply, and the use of natural resources by mining, industry, energy production and transport. The research infrastructure introduces the current state of the art modeling platform and observation systems in the Pan-Eurasian region and presents the future baselines for the coherent and coordinated research infrastructures in the PEEX domain. The PEEX modeling Platform is characterized by a complex seamless integrated Earth System Modeling (ESM) approach, in combination with specific models of different processes and elements of the system, acting on different temporal and spatial scales. The ensemble approach is taken to the integration of modeling results from different models, participants and countries. PEEX utilizes the full potential of a hierarchy of models: scenario analysis, inverse modeling, and modeling based on measurement needs and processes. The models are validated and constrained by available in-situ and remote sensing data of various spatial and temporal scales using data assimilation and top-down modeling. The analyses of the anticipated large volumes of data produced by available models and sensors will be supported by a dedicated virtual research environment developed for these purposes.
Laguerre-Volterra model and architecture for MIMO system identification and output prediction.
Li, Will X Y; Xin, Yao; Chan, Rosa H M; Song, Dong; Berger, Theodore W; Cheung, Ray C C
2014-01-01
A generalized mathematical model is proposed for behaviors prediction of biological causal systems with multiple inputs and multiple outputs (MIMO). The system properties are represented by a set of model parameters, which can be derived with random input stimuli probing it. The system calculates predicted outputs based on the estimated parameters and its novel inputs. An efficient hardware architecture is established for this mathematical model and its circuitry has been implemented using the field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs). This architecture is scalable and its functionality has been validated by using experimental data gathered from real-world measurement.
Models Predicting Success of Infertility Treatment: A Systematic Review
Zarinara, Alireza; Zeraati, Hojjat; Kamali, Koorosh; Mohammad, Kazem; Shahnazari, Parisa; Akhondi, Mohammad Mehdi
2016-01-01
Background: Infertile couples are faced with problems that affect their marital life. Infertility treatment is expensive and time consuming and occasionally isn’t simply possible. Prediction models for infertility treatment have been proposed and prediction of treatment success is a new field in infertility treatment. Because prediction of treatment success is a new need for infertile couples, this paper reviewed previous studies for catching a general concept in applicability of the models. Methods: This study was conducted as a systematic review at Avicenna Research Institute in 2015. Six data bases were searched based on WHO definitions and MESH key words. Papers about prediction models in infertility were evaluated. Results: Eighty one papers were eligible for the study. Papers covered years after 1986 and studies were designed retrospectively and prospectively. IVF prediction models have more shares in papers. Most common predictors were age, duration of infertility, ovarian and tubal problems. Conclusion: Prediction model can be clinically applied if the model can be statistically evaluated and has a good validation for treatment success. To achieve better results, the physician and the couples’ needs estimation for treatment success rate were based on history, the examination and clinical tests. Models must be checked for theoretical approach and appropriate validation. The privileges for applying the prediction models are the decrease in the cost and time, avoiding painful treatment of patients, assessment of treatment approach for physicians and decision making for health managers. The selection of the approach for designing and using these models is inevitable. PMID:27141461
Comparison of Predictive Models for the Early Diagnosis of Diabetes.
Jahani, Meysam; Mahdavi, Mahdi
2016-04-01
This study develops neural network models to improve the prediction of diabetes using clinical and lifestyle characteristics. Prediction models were developed using a combination of approaches and concepts. We used memetic algorithms to update weights and to improve prediction accuracy of models. In the first step, the optimum amount for neural network parameters such as momentum rate, transfer function, and error function were obtained through trial and error and based on the results of previous studies. In the second step, optimum parameters were applied to memetic algorithms in order to improve the accuracy of prediction. This preliminary analysis showed that the accuracy of neural networks is 88%. In the third step, the accuracy of neural network models was improved using a memetic algorithm and resulted model was compared with a logistic regression model using a confusion matrix and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). The memetic algorithm improved the accuracy from 88.0% to 93.2%. We also found that memetic algorithm had a higher accuracy than the model from the genetic algorithm and a regression model. Among models, the regression model has the least accuracy. For the memetic algorithm model the amount of sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and ROC are 96.2, 95.3, 93.8, 92.4, and 0.958 respectively. The results of this study provide a basis to design a Decision Support System for risk management and planning of care for individuals at risk of diabetes.
Efficient Parallel Execution of Event-Driven Electromagnetic Hybrid Models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Perumalla, Kalyan S [ORNL; Karimabadi, Dr. Homa [SciberQuest Inc.; Fujimoto, Richard [ORNL
2007-01-01
New discrete-event formulations of physics simulation models are emerging that can outperform traditional time-stepped models, especially in simulations containing multiple timescales. Detailed simulation of the Earth's magnetosphere, for example, requires execution of sub-models that operate at timescales that differ by orders of magnitude. In contrast to time-stepped simulation which requires tightly coupled updates to almost the entire system state at regular time intervals, the new discrete event simulation (DES) approaches help evolve the states of sub-models on relatively independent timescales. However, in contrast to relative ease of parallelization of time-stepped codes, the parallelization of DES-based models raises challenges with respect to their scalability and performance. One of the key challenges is to improve the computation granularity to offset synchronization and communication overheads within and across processors. Our previous work on parallelization was limited in scalability and runtime performance due to such challenges. Here we report on optimizations we performed on DES-based plasma simulation models to improve parallel execution performance. The mapping of the model to simulation processes is optimized via aggregation techniques, and the parallel runtime engine is optimized for communication and memory efficiency. The net result is the capability to simulate hybrid particle-in-cell (PIC) models with over 2 billion ion particles using 512 processors on supercomputing platforms.
Applications of modeling in polymer-property prediction
Case, F. H.
1996-08-01
A number of molecular modeling techniques have been applied for the prediction of polymer properties and behavior. Five examples illustrate the range of methodologies used. A simple atomistic simulation of small polymer fragments is used to estimate drug compatibility with a polymer matrix. The analysis of molecular dynamics results from a more complex model of a swollen hydrogel system is used to study gas diffusion in contact lenses. Statistical mechanics are used to predict conformation dependent properties — an example is the prediction of liquid-crystal formation. The effect of the molecular weight distribution on phase separation in polyalkanes is predicted using thermodynamic models. In some cases, the properties of interest cannot be directly predicted using simulation methods or polymer theory. Correlation methods may be used to bridge the gap between molecular structure and macroscopic properties. The final example shows how connectivity-indices-based quantitative structure-property relationships were used to predict properties for candidate polyimids in an electronics application.
Navigational efficiency in a biased and correlated random walk model of individual animal movement.
Bailey, Joseph D; Wallis, Jamie; Codling, Edward A
2018-01-01
Understanding how an individual animal is able to navigate through its environment is a key question in movement ecology that can give insight into observed movement patterns and the mechanisms behind them. Efficiency of navigation is important for behavioral processes at a range of different spatio-temporal scales, including foraging and migration. Random walk models provide a standard framework for modeling individual animal movement and navigation. Here we consider a vector-weighted biased and correlated random walk (BCRW) model for directed movement (taxis), where external navigation cues are balanced with forward persistence. We derive a mathematical approximation of the expected navigational efficiency for any BCRW of this form and confirm the model predictions using simulations. We demonstrate how the navigational efficiency is related to the weighting given to forward persistence and external navigation cues, and highlight the counter-intuitive result that for low (but realistic) levels of error on forward persistence, a higher navigational efficiency is achieved by giving more weighting to this indirect navigation cue rather than direct navigational cues. We discuss and interpret the relevance of these results for understanding animal movement and navigation strategies. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.
Artificial Neural Network Model for Predicting Compressive
Salim T. Yousif; Salwa M. Abdullah
2013-01-01
Compressive strength of concrete is a commonly used criterion in evaluating concrete. Although testing of the compressive strength of concrete specimens is done routinely, it is performed on the 28th day after concrete placement. Therefore, strength estimation of concrete at early time is highly desirable. This study presents the effort in applying neural network-based system identification techniques to predict the compressive strength of concrete based on concrete mix proportions, maximum...
Efficient solvers for coupled models in respiratory mechanics.
Verdugo, Francesc; Roth, Christian J; Yoshihara, Lena; Wall, Wolfgang A
2017-02-01
We present efficient preconditioners for one of the most physiologically relevant pulmonary models currently available. Our underlying motivation is to enable the efficient simulation of such a lung model on high-performance computing platforms in order to assess mechanical ventilation strategies and contributing to design more protective patient-specific ventilation treatments. The system of linear equations to be solved using the proposed preconditioners is essentially the monolithic system arising in fluid-structure interaction (FSI) extended by additional algebraic constraints. The introduction of these constraints leads to a saddle point problem that cannot be solved with usual FSI preconditioners available in the literature. The key ingredient in this work is to use the idea of the semi-implicit method for pressure-linked equations (SIMPLE) for getting rid of the saddle point structure, resulting in a standard FSI problem that can be treated with available techniques. The numerical examples show that the resulting preconditioners approach the optimal performance of multigrid methods, even though the lung model is a complex multiphysics problem. Moreover, the preconditioners are robust enough to deal with physiologically relevant simulations involving complex real-world patient-specific lung geometries. The same approach is applicable to other challenging biomedical applications where coupling between flow and tissue deformations is modeled with additional algebraic constraints. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Study on noise prediction model and control schemes for substation.
Chen, Chuanmin; Gao, Yang; Liu, Songtao
2014-01-01
With the government's emphasis on environmental issues of power transmission and transformation project, noise pollution has become a prominent problem now. The noise from the working transformer, reactor, and other electrical equipment in the substation will bring negative effect to the ambient environment. This paper focuses on using acoustic software for the simulation and calculation method to control substation noise. According to the characteristics of the substation noise and the techniques of noise reduction, a substation's acoustic field model was established with the SoundPLAN software to predict the scope of substation noise. On this basis, 4 reasonable noise control schemes were advanced to provide some helpful references for noise control during the new substation's design and construction process. And the feasibility and application effect of these control schemes can be verified by using the method of simulation modeling. The simulation results show that the substation always has the problem of excessive noise at boundary under the conventional measures. The excess noise can be efficiently reduced by taking the corresponding noise reduction methods.
Study on Noise Prediction Model and Control Schemes for Substation
Gao, Yang; Liu, Songtao
2014-01-01
With the government's emphasis on environmental issues of power transmission and transformation project, noise pollution has become a prominent problem now. The noise from the working transformer, reactor, and other electrical equipment in the substation will bring negative effect to the ambient environment. This paper focuses on using acoustic software for the simulation and calculation method to control substation noise. According to the characteristics of the substation noise and the techniques of noise reduction, a substation's acoustic field model was established with the SoundPLAN software to predict the scope of substation noise. On this basis, 4 reasonable noise control schemes were advanced to provide some helpful references for noise control during the new substation's design and construction process. And the feasibility and application effect of these control schemes can be verified by using the method of simulation modeling. The simulation results show that the substation always has the problem of excessive noise at boundary under the conventional measures. The excess noise can be efficiently reduced by taking the corresponding noise reduction methods. PMID:24672356
Prediction of hourly solar radiation with multi-model framework
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wu, Ji; Chan, Chee Keong
2013-01-01
Highlights: • A novel approach to predict solar radiation through the use of clustering paradigms. • Development of prediction models based on the intrinsic pattern observed in each cluster. • Prediction based on proper clustering and selection of model on current time provides better results than other methods. • Experiments were conducted on actual solar radiation data obtained from a weather station in Singapore. - Abstract: In this paper, a novel multi-model prediction framework for prediction of solar radiation is proposed. The framework started with the assumption that there are several patterns embedded in the solar radiation series. To extract the underlying pattern, the solar radiation series is first segmented into smaller subsequences, and the subsequences are further grouped into different clusters. For each cluster, an appropriate prediction model is trained. Hence a procedure for pattern identification is developed to identify the proper pattern that fits the current period. Based on this pattern, the corresponding prediction model is applied to obtain the prediction value. The prediction result of the proposed framework is then compared to other techniques. It is shown that the proposed framework provides superior performance as compared to others
Experimental Evaluation of Balance Prediction Models for Sit-to-Stand Movement in the Sagittal Plane
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Oscar David Pena Cabra
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Evaluation of balance control ability would become important in the rehabilitation training. In this paper, in order to make clear usefulness and limitation of a traditional simple inverted pendulum model in balance prediction in sit-to-stand movements, the traditional simple model was compared to an inertia (rotational radius variable inverted pendulum model including multiple-joint influence in the balance predictions. The predictions were tested upon experimentation with six healthy subjects. The evaluation showed that the multiple-joint influence model is more accurate in predicting balance under demanding sit-to-stand conditions. On the other hand, the evaluation also showed that the traditionally used simple inverted pendulum model is still reliable in predicting balance during sit-to-stand movement under non-demanding (normal condition. Especially, the simple model was shown to be effective for sit-to-stand movements with low center of mass velocity at the seat-off. Moreover, almost all trajectories under the normal condition seemed to follow the same control strategy, in which the subjects used extra energy than the minimum one necessary for standing up. This suggests that the safety considerations come first than the energy efficiency considerations during a sit to stand, since the most energy efficient trajectory is close to the backward fall boundary.
Experimental Evaluation of Balance Prediction Models for Sit-to-Stand Movement in the Sagittal Plane
Pena Cabra, Oscar David; Watanabe, Takashi
2013-01-01
Evaluation of balance control ability would become important in the rehabilitation training. In this paper, in order to make clear usefulness and limitation of a traditional simple inverted pendulum model in balance prediction in sit-to-stand movements, the traditional simple model was compared to an inertia (rotational radius) variable inverted pendulum model including multiple-joint influence in the balance predictions. The predictions were tested upon experimentation with six healthy subjects. The evaluation showed that the multiple-joint influence model is more accurate in predicting balance under demanding sit-to-stand conditions. On the other hand, the evaluation also showed that the traditionally used simple inverted pendulum model is still reliable in predicting balance during sit-to-stand movement under non-demanding (normal) condition. Especially, the simple model was shown to be effective for sit-to-stand movements with low center of mass velocity at the seat-off. Moreover, almost all trajectories under the normal condition seemed to follow the same control strategy, in which the subjects used extra energy than the minimum one necessary for standing up. This suggests that the safety considerations come first than the energy efficiency considerations during a sit to stand, since the most energy efficient trajectory is close to the backward fall boundary. PMID:24187580
Development of multicriteria models to classify energy efficiency alternatives
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Neves, Luis Pires; Antunes, Carlos Henggeler; Dias, Luis Candido; Martins, Antonio Gomes
2005-01-01
This paper aims at describing a novel constructive approach to develop decision support models to classify energy efficiency initiatives, including traditional Demand-Side Management and Market Transformation initiatives, overcoming the limitations and drawbacks of Cost-Benefit Analysis. A multicriteria approach based on the ELECTRE-TRI method is used, focusing on four perspectives: - an independent Agency with the aim of promoting energy efficiency; - Distribution-only utilities under a regulated framework; - the Regulator; - Supply companies in a competitive liberalized market. These perspectives were chosen after a system analysis of the decision situation regarding the implementation of energy efficiency initiatives, looking for the main roles and power relations, with the purpose of structuring the decision problem by identifying the actors, the decision makers, the decision paradigm, and the relevant criteria. The multicriteria models developed allow considering different kinds of impacts, but avoiding difficult measurements and unit conversions due to the nature of the multicriteria method chosen. The decision is then based on all the significant effects of the initiative, both positive and negative ones, including ancillary effects often forgotten in cost-benefit analysis. The ELECTRE-TRI, as most multicriteria methods, provides to the Decision Maker the ability of controlling the relevance each impact can have on the final decision. The decision support process encompasses a robustness analysis, which, together with a good documentation of the parameters supplied into the model, should support sound decisions. The models were tested with a set of real-world initiatives and compared with possible decisions based on Cost-Benefit analysis
FASTSim: A Model to Estimate Vehicle Efficiency, Cost and Performance
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Brooker, A.; Gonder, J.; Wang, L.; Wood, E.; Lopp, S.; Ramroth, L.
2015-05-04
The Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator (FASTSim) is a high-level advanced vehicle powertrain systems analysis tool supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office. FASTSim provides a quick and simple approach to compare powertrains and estimate the impact of technology improvements on light- and heavy-duty vehicle efficiency, performance, cost, and battery batches of real-world drive cycles. FASTSim’s calculation framework and balance among detail, accuracy, and speed enable it to simulate thousands of driven miles in minutes. The key components and vehicle outputs have been validated by comparing the model outputs to test data for many different vehicles to provide confidence in the results. A graphical user interface makes FASTSim easy and efficient to use. FASTSim is freely available for download from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s website (see www.nrel.gov/fastsim).
Posterior Predictive Model Checking for Multidimensionality in Item Response Theory
Levy, Roy; Mislevy, Robert J.; Sinharay, Sandip
2009-01-01
If data exhibit multidimensionality, key conditional independence assumptions of unidimensional models do not hold. The current work pursues posterior predictive model checking, a flexible family of model-checking procedures, as a tool for criticizing models due to unaccounted for dimensions in the context of item response theory. Factors…
Model predictive control of a crude oil distillation column
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Morten Hovd
1999-04-01
Full Text Available The project of designing and implementing model based predictive control on the vacuum distillation column at the Nynäshamn Refinery of Nynäs AB is described in this paper. The paper describes in detail the modeling for the model based control, covers the controller implementation, and documents the benefits gained from the model based controller.
Seismic attenuation relationship with homogeneous and heterogeneous prediction-error variance models
Mu, He-Qing; Xu, Rong-Rong; Yuen, Ka-Veng
2014-03-01
Peak ground acceleration (PGA) estimation is an important task in earthquake engineering practice. One of the most well-known models is the Boore-Joyner-Fumal formula, which estimates the PGA using the moment magnitude, the site-to-fault distance and the site foundation properties. In the present study, the complexity for this formula and the homogeneity assumption for the prediction-error variance are investigated and an efficiency-robustness balanced formula is proposed. For this purpose, a reduced-order Monte Carlo simulation algorithm for Bayesian model class selection is presented to obtain the most suitable predictive formula and prediction-error model for the seismic attenuation relationship. In this approach, each model class (a predictive formula with a prediction-error model) is evaluated according to its plausibility given the data. The one with the highest plausibility is robust since it possesses the optimal balance between the data fitting capability and the sensitivity to noise. A database of strong ground motion records in the Tangshan region of China is obtained from the China Earthquake Data Center for the analysis. The optimal predictive formula is proposed based on this database. It is shown that the proposed formula with heterogeneous prediction-error variance is much simpler than the attenuation model suggested by Boore, Joyner and Fumal (1993).
Morales, Verónica L; Sang, Wenjng; Fuka, Daniel R; Lion, Leonard W; Gao, Bin; Steenhuis, Tammo S
2011-12-01
Naturally occurring polymers such as organic matter have been known to inhibit aggregation and promote mobility of suspensions in soil environments by imparting steric stability. This increase in mobility can significantly reduce the water filtering capacity of soils, thus jeopardizing a primary function of the vadose zone. Improvements to classic filtration theory have been made to account for the known decrease in attachment efficiency of electrostatically stabilized particles, and more recently, of sterically stabilized particles traveling through simple and saturated porous media. In the absence of an established unsaturated transport expression, and in the absence of applicable theoretical approaches for suspensions with asymmetric and nonindifferent electrolytes, this study presents an empirical correlation to predict attachment efficiency (α) for electrosterically stabilized suspensions in unsaturated systems in the presence of nonideal electrolytes. We show that existing models fall short in estimating polymer-coated colloid deposition in unsaturated media. This deficiency is expected given that the models were developed for saturated conditions where the mechanisms controlling colloid deposition are significantly different. A new correlation is derived from unsaturated transport data and direct characterization of microspheres coated with natural organic matter over a range of pH and CaCl(2) concentrations. The improvements to existing transport models include the following: adjustment for a restricted liquid-phase in the medium, development of a quantitative term to account for unsaturated transport phenomena, and adjustments in the relative contribution of steric stability parameters based on direct measurements of the adsorbed polymer layer characteristics. Differences in model formulation for correlations designed for saturated systems and the newly proposed correlation for unsaturated systems are discussed, and the performance of the new model
Enhancing Flood Prediction Reliability Using Bayesian Model Averaging
Liu, Z.; Merwade, V.
2017-12-01
Uncertainty analysis is an indispensable part of modeling the hydrology and hydrodynamics of non-idealized environmental systems. Compared to reliance on prediction from one model simulation, using on ensemble of predictions that consider uncertainty from different sources is more reliable. In this study, Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is applied to Black River watershed in Arkansas and Missouri by combining multi-model simulations to get reliable deterministic water stage and probabilistic inundation extent predictions. The simulation ensemble is generated from 81 LISFLOOD-FP subgrid model configurations that include uncertainty from channel shape, channel width, channel roughness and discharge. Model simulation outputs are trained with observed water stage data during one flood event, and BMA prediction ability is validated for another flood event. Results from this study indicate that BMA does not always outperform all members in the ensemble, but it provides relatively robust deterministic flood stage predictions across the basin. Station based BMA (BMA_S) water stage prediction has better performance than global based BMA (BMA_G) prediction which is superior to the ensemble mean prediction. Additionally, high-frequency flood inundation extent (probability greater than 60%) in BMA_G probabilistic map is more accurate than the probabilistic flood inundation extent based on equal weights.
Spiliopoulou, Athina; Nagy, Reka; Bermingham, Mairead L.; Huffman, Jennifer E.; Hayward, Caroline; Vitart, Veronique; Rudan, Igor; Campbell, Harry; Wright, Alan F.; Wilson, James F.; Pong-Wong, Ricardo; Agakov, Felix; Navarro, Pau; Haley, Chris S.
2015-01-01
We explore the prediction of individuals' phenotypes for complex traits using genomic data. We compare several widely used prediction models, including Ridge Regression, LASSO and Elastic Nets estimated from cohort data, and polygenic risk scores constructed using published summary statistics from genome-wide association meta-analyses (GWAMA). We evaluate the interplay between relatedness, trait architecture and optimal marker density, by predicting height, body mass index (BMI) and high-density lipoprotein level (HDL) in two data cohorts, originating from Croatia and Scotland. We empirically demonstrate that dense models are better when all genetic effects are small (height and BMI) and target individuals are related to the training samples, while sparse models predict better in unrelated individuals and when some effects have moderate size (HDL). For HDL sparse models achieved good across-cohort prediction, performing similarly to the GWAMA risk score and to models trained within the same cohort, which indicates that, for predicting traits with moderately sized effects, large sample sizes and familial structure become less important, though still potentially useful. Finally, we propose a novel ensemble of whole-genome predictors with GWAMA risk scores and demonstrate that the resulting meta-model achieves higher prediction accuracy than either model on its own. We conclude that although current genomic predictors are not accurate enough for diagnostic purposes, performance can be improved without requiring access to large-scale individual-level data. Our methodologically simple meta-model is a means of performing predictive meta-analysis for optimizing genomic predictions and can be easily extended to incorporate multiple population-level summary statistics or other domain knowledge. PMID:25918167
Business Models, transparency and efficient stock price formation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Christian; Vali, Edward; Hvidberg, Rene
and the lack of growth of competitors. This is a problem, because the company is deprived of having its own direct influence on its share price, which often leads to hasty short-term decisions in order to meet the expectations of the market and to benefit its shareholders in the short term. On the basis...... of this, our hypothesis is that if it is possible to improve, simplify and define the way a company communicates its business model to the market, then it must be possible for the company to create a more efficient price formation of its share. To begin with, we decided to investigate whether transparency...... the operational and tactical strategies complement each other. This brings us to the following definition of a business model: A business model is a representation of the company's concept. The concept shows in what way the company is trying to establish a unique identity in the market in comparison to its...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Oladipupo Bello
2014-09-01
Full Text Available In this paper, a fuzzy model predictive control (FMPC strategy is proposed to regulate the output variables of a coagulation chemical dosing unit. A multiple-input, multiple-output (MIMO process model in form of a linearised Takagi–Sugeno (T–S fuzzy model is derived. The process model is obtained through subtractive clustering from the plant's data set. The MIMO model is described by a set of coupled multiple-input, single-output models (MISO. In the controller design, the T–S fuzzy model is applied in combination with the nonlinear model predictive control (MPC algorithm. The results show that the proposed controller has good set-point tracking when compared with nonlinear MPC and adequate disturbance rejection ability required for efficient coagulation control and process optimisation in water treatment operations.
Predictive models for acute kidney injury following cardiac surgery.
Demirjian, Sevag; Schold, Jesse D; Navia, Jose; Mastracci, Tara M; Paganini, Emil P; Yared, Jean-Pierre; Bashour, Charles A
2012-03-01
Accurate prediction of cardiac surgery-associated acute kidney injury (AKI) would improve clinical decision making and facilitate timely diagnosis and treatment. The aim of the study was to develop predictive models for cardiac surgery-associated AKI using presurgical and combined pre- and intrasurgical variables. Prospective observational cohort. 25,898 patients who underwent cardiac surgery at Cleveland Clinic in 2000-2008. Presurgical and combined pre- and intrasurgical variables were used to develop predictive models. Dialysis therapy and a composite of doubling of serum creatinine level or dialysis therapy within 2 weeks (or discharge if sooner) after cardiac surgery. Incidences of dialysis therapy and the composite of doubling of serum creatinine level or dialysis therapy were 1.7% and 4.3%, respectively. Kidney function parameters were strong independent predictors in all 4 models. Surgical complexity reflected by type and history of previous cardiac surgery were robust predictors in models based on presurgical variables. However, the inclusion of intrasurgical variables accounted for all explained variance by procedure-related information. Models predictive of dialysis therapy showed good calibration and superb discrimination; a combined (pre- and intrasurgical) model performed better than the presurgical model alone (C statistics, 0.910 and 0.875, respectively). Models predictive of the composite end point also had excellent discrimination with both presurgical and combined (pre- and intrasurgical) variables (C statistics, 0.797 and 0.825, respectively). However, the presurgical model predictive of the composite end point showed suboptimal calibration (P predictive models in other cohorts is required before wide-scale application. We developed and internally validated 4 new models that accurately predict cardiac surgery-associated AKI. These models are based on readily available clinical information and can be used for patient counseling, clinical
Modeling number of claims and prediction of total claim amount
Acar, Aslıhan Şentürk; Karabey, Uǧur
2017-07-01
In this study we focus on annual number of claims of a private health insurance data set which belongs to a local insurance company in Turkey. In addition to Poisson model and negative binomial model, zero-inflated Poisson model and zero-inflated negative binomial model are used to model the number of claims in order to take into account excess zeros. To investigate the impact of different distributional assumptions for the number of claims on the prediction of total claim amount, predictive performances of candidate models are compared by using root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria.
Assessment of performance of survival prediction models for cancer prognosis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chen Hung-Chia
2012-07-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Cancer survival studies are commonly analyzed using survival-time prediction models for cancer prognosis. A number of different performance metrics are used to ascertain the concordance between the predicted risk score of each patient and the actual survival time, but these metrics can sometimes conflict. Alternatively, patients are sometimes divided into two classes according to a survival-time threshold, and binary classifiers are applied to predict each patient’s class. Although this approach has several drawbacks, it does provide natural performance metrics such as positive and negative predictive values to enable unambiguous assessments. Methods We compare the survival-time prediction and survival-time threshold approaches to analyzing cancer survival studies. We review and compare common performance metrics for the two approaches. We present new randomization tests and cross-validation methods to enable unambiguous statistical inferences for several performance metrics used with the survival-time prediction approach. We consider five survival prediction models consisting of one clinical model, two gene expression models, and two models from combinations of clinical and gene expression models. Results A public breast cancer dataset was used to compare several performance metrics using five prediction models. 1 For some prediction models, the hazard ratio from fitting a Cox proportional hazards model was significant, but the two-group comparison was insignificant, and vice versa. 2 The randomization test and cross-validation were generally consistent with the p-values obtained from the standard performance metrics. 3 Binary classifiers highly depended on how the risk groups were defined; a slight change of the survival threshold for assignment of classes led to very different prediction results. Conclusions 1 Different performance metrics for evaluation of a survival prediction model may give different conclusions in
Energy-Efficient Control with Harvesting Predictions for Solar-Powered Wireless Sensor Networks.
Zou, Tengyue; Lin, Shouying; Feng, Qijie; Chen, Yanlian
2016-01-04
Wireless sensor networks equipped with rechargeable batteries are useful for outdoor environmental monitoring. However, the severe energy constraints of the sensor nodes present major challenges for long-term applications. To achieve sustainability, solar cells can be used to acquire energy from the environment. Unfortunately, the energy supplied by the harvesting system is generally intermittent and considerably influenced by the weather. To improve the energy efficiency and extend the lifetime of the networks, we propose algorithms for harvested energy prediction using environmental shadow detection. Thus, the sensor nodes can adjust their scheduling plans accordingly to best suit their energy production and residual battery levels. Furthermore, we introduce clustering and routing selection methods to optimize the data transmission, and a Bayesian network is used for warning notifications of bottlenecks along the path. The entire system is implemented on a real-time Texas Instruments CC2530 embedded platform, and the experimental results indicate that these mechanisms sustain the networks' activities in an uninterrupted and efficient manner.
Energy-Efficient Control with Harvesting Predictions for Solar-Powered Wireless Sensor Networks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tengyue Zou
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Wireless sensor networks equipped with rechargeable batteries are useful for outdoor environmental monitoring. However, the severe energy constraints of the sensor nodes present major challenges for long-term applications. To achieve sustainability, solar cells can be used to acquire energy from the environment. Unfortunately, the energy supplied by the harvesting system is generally intermittent and considerably influenced by the weather. To improve the energy efficiency and extend the lifetime of the networks, we propose algorithms for harvested energy prediction using environmental shadow detection. Thus, the sensor nodes can adjust their scheduling plans accordingly to best suit their energy production and residual battery levels. Furthermore, we introduce clustering and routing selection methods to optimize the data transmission, and a Bayesian network is used for warning notifications of bottlenecks along the path. The entire system is implemented on a real-time Texas Instruments CC2530 embedded platform, and the experimental results indicate that these mechanisms sustain the networks’ activities in an uninterrupted and efficient manner.
Energy-Efficient Control with Harvesting Predictions for Solar-Powered Wireless Sensor Networks
Zou, Tengyue; Lin, Shouying; Feng, Qijie; Chen, Yanlian
2016-01-01
Wireless sensor networks equipped with rechargeable batteries are useful for outdoor environmental monitoring. However, the severe energy constraints of the sensor nodes present major challenges for long-term applications. To achieve sustainability, solar cells can be used to acquire energy from the environment. Unfortunately, the energy supplied by the harvesting system is generally intermittent and considerably influenced by the weather. To improve the energy efficiency and extend the lifetime of the networks, we propose algorithms for harvested energy prediction using environmental shadow detection. Thus, the sensor nodes can adjust their scheduling plans accordingly to best suit their energy production and residual battery levels. Furthermore, we introduce clustering and routing selection methods to optimize the data transmission, and a Bayesian network is used for warning notifications of bottlenecks along the path. The entire system is implemented on a real-time Texas Instruments CC2530 embedded platform, and the experimental results indicate that these mechanisms sustain the networks’ activities in an uninterrupted and efficient manner. PMID:26742042
Generalized model for predicting methane conversion to syngas in ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
International Journal of Engineering, Science and Technology ... Abstract. Present work aims to provide a conceptual framework for predicting methane conversion efficiency and CO selectivity in a membrane reactor which may assist in selecting the type of membrane and minimizing the cost of syngas production.
Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pearson, R. G.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Bastos Araujo, Miguel
2006-01-01
algorithm when extrapolating beyond the range of data used to build the model. The effects of these factors should be carefully considered when using this modelling approach to predict species ranges. Main conclusions We highlight an important source of uncertainty in assessments of the impacts of climate......Aim Many attempts to predict the potential range of species rely on environmental niche (or 'bioclimate envelope') modelling, yet the effects of using different niche-based methodologies require further investigation. Here we investigate the impact that the choice of model can have on predictions......, identify key reasons why model output may differ and discuss the implications that model uncertainty has for policy-guiding applications. Location The Western Cape of South Africa. Methods We applied nine of the most widely used modelling techniques to model potential distributions under current...
Prediction Model for Gastric Cancer Incidence in Korean Population.
Eom, Bang Wool; Joo, Jungnam; Kim, Sohee; Shin, Aesun; Yang, Hye-Ryung; Park, Junghyun; Choi, Il Ju; Kim, Young-Woo; Kim, Jeongseon; Nam, Byung-Ho
2015-01-01
Predicting high risk groups for gastric cancer and motivating these groups to receive regular checkups is required for the early detection of gastric cancer. The aim of this study is was to develop a prediction model for gastric cancer incidence based on a large population-based cohort in Korea. Based on the National Health Insurance Corporation data, we analyzed 10 major risk factors for gastric cancer. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to develop gender specific prediction models for gastric cancer development, and the performance of the developed model in terms of discrimination and calibration was also validated using an independent cohort. Discrimination ability was evaluated using Harrell's C-statistics, and the calibration was evaluated using a calibration plot and slope. During a median of 11.4 years of follow-up, 19,465 (1.4%) and 5,579 (0.7%) newly developed gastric cancer cases were observed among 1,372,424 men and 804,077 women, respectively. The prediction models included age, BMI, family history, meal regularity, salt preference, alcohol consumption, smoking and physical activity for men, and age, BMI, family history, salt preference, alcohol consumption, and smoking for women. This prediction model showed good accuracy and predictability in both the developing and validation cohorts (C-statistics: 0.764 for men, 0.706 for women). In this study, a prediction model for gastric cancer incidence was developed that displayed a good performance.
Risk Prediction Model for Severe Postoperative Complication in Bariatric Surgery.
Stenberg, Erik; Cao, Yang; Szabo, Eva; Näslund, Erik; Näslund, Ingmar; Ottosson, Johan
2018-01-12
Factors associated with risk for adverse outcome are important considerations in the preoperative assessment of patients for bariatric surgery. As yet, prediction models based on preoperative risk factors have not been able to predict adverse outcome sufficiently. This study aimed to identify preoperative risk factors and to construct a risk prediction model based on these. Patients who underwent a bariatric surgical procedure in Sweden between 2010 and 2014 were identified from the Scandinavian Obesity Surgery Registry (SOReg). Associations between preoperative potential risk factors and severe postoperative complications were analysed using a logistic regression model. A multivariate model for risk prediction was created and validated in the SOReg for patients who underwent bariatric surgery in Sweden, 2015. Revision surgery (standardized OR 1.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.14-0.24, p prediction model. Despite high specificity, the sensitivity of the model was low. Revision surgery, high age, low BMI, large waist circumference, and dyspepsia/GERD were associated with an increased risk for severe postoperative complication. The prediction model based on these factors, however, had a sensitivity that was too low to predict risk in the individual patient case.
Prediction Model for Gastric Cancer Incidence in Korean Population.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bang Wool Eom
Full Text Available Predicting high risk groups for gastric cancer and motivating these groups to receive regular checkups is required for the early detection of gastric cancer. The aim of this study is was to develop a prediction model for gastric cancer incidence based on a large population-based cohort in Korea.Based on the National Health Insurance Corporation data, we analyzed 10 major risk factors for gastric cancer. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to develop gender specific prediction models for gastric cancer development, and the performance of the developed model in terms of discrimination and calibration was also validated using an independent cohort. Discrimination ability was evaluated using Harrell's C-statistics, and the calibration was evaluated using a calibration plot and slope.During a median of 11.4 years of follow-up, 19,465 (1.4% and 5,579 (0.7% newly developed gastric cancer cases were observed among 1,372,424 men and 804,077 women, respectively. The prediction models included age, BMI, family history, meal regularity, salt preference, alcohol consumption, smoking and physical activity for men, and age, BMI, family history, salt preference, alcohol consumption, and smoking for women. This prediction model showed good accuracy and predictability in both the developing and validation cohorts (C-statistics: 0.764 for men, 0.706 for women.In this study, a prediction model for gastric cancer incidence was developed that displayed a good performance.
In Search of a Time Efficient Approach to Crack and Delamination Growth Predictions in Composites
Krueger, Ronald; Carvalho, Nelson
2016-01-01
Analysis benchmarking was used to assess the accuracy and time efficiency of algorithms suitable for automated delamination growth analysis. First, the Floating Node Method (FNM) was introduced and its combination with a simple exponential growth law (Paris Law) and Virtual Crack Closure technique (VCCT) was discussed. Implementation of the method into a user element (UEL) in Abaqus/Standard(Registered TradeMark) was also presented. For the assessment of growth prediction capabilities, an existing benchmark case based on the Double Cantilever Beam (DCB) specimen was briefly summarized. Additionally, the development of new benchmark cases based on the Mixed-Mode Bending (MMB) specimen to assess the growth prediction capabilities under mixed-mode I/II conditions was discussed in detail. A comparison was presented, in which the benchmark cases were used to assess the existing low-cycle fatigue analysis tool in Abaqus/Standard(Registered TradeMark) in comparison to the FNM-VCCT fatigue growth analysis implementation. The low-cycle fatigue analysis tool in Abaqus/Standard(Registered TradeMark) was able to yield results that were in good agreement with the DCB benchmark example. Results for the MMB benchmark cases, however, only captured the trend correctly. The user element (FNM-VCCT) always yielded results that were in excellent agreement with all benchmark cases, at a fraction of the analysis time. The ability to assess the implementation of two methods in one finite element code illustrated the value of establishing benchmark solutions.
Stage-specific predictive models for breast cancer survivability.
Kate, Rohit J; Nadig, Ramya
2017-01-01
Survivability rates vary widely among various stages of breast cancer. Although machine learning models built in past to predict breast cancer survivability were given stage as one of the features, they were not trained or evaluated separately for each stage. To investigate whether there are differences in performance of machine learning models trained and evaluated across different stages for predicting breast cancer survivability. Using three different machine learning methods we built models to predict breast cancer survivability separately for each stage and compared them with the traditional joint models built for all the stages. We also evaluated the models separately for each stage and together for all the stages. Our results show that the most suitable model to predict survivability for a specific stage is the model trained for that particular stage. In our experiments, using additional examples of other stages during training did not help, in fact, it made it worse in some cases. The most important features for predicting survivability were also found to be different for different stages. By evaluating the models separately on different stages we found that the performance widely varied across them. We also demonstrate that evaluating predictive models for survivability on all the stages together, as was done in the past, is misleading because it overestimates performance. Copyright Â© 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Computationally efficient thermal-mechanical modelling of selective laser melting
Yang, Yabin; Ayas, Can
2017-10-01
The Selective laser melting (SLM) is a powder based additive manufacturing (AM) method to produce high density metal parts with complex topology. However, part distortions and accompanying residual stresses deteriorates the mechanical reliability of SLM products. Modelling of the SLM process is anticipated to be instrumental for understanding and predicting the development of residual stress field during the build process. However, SLM process modelling requires determination of the heat transients within the part being built which is coupled to a mechanical boundary value problem to calculate displacement and residual stress fields. Thermal models associated with SLM are typically complex and computationally demanding. In this paper, we present a simple semi-analytical thermal-mechanical model, developed for SLM that represents the effect of laser scanning vectors with line heat sources. The temperature field within the part being build is attained by superposition of temperature field associated with line heat sources in a semi-infinite medium and a complimentary temperature field which accounts for the actual boundary conditions. An analytical solution of a line heat source in a semi-infinite medium is first described followed by the numerical procedure used for finding the complimentary temperature field. This analytical description of the line heat sources is able to capture the steep temperature gradients in the vicinity of the laser spot which is typically tens of micrometers. In turn, semi-analytical thermal model allows for having a relatively coarse discretisation of the complimentary temperature field. The temperature history determined is used to calculate the thermal strain induced on the SLM part. Finally, a mechanical model governed by elastic-plastic constitutive rule having isotropic hardening is used to predict the residual stresses.
Models for electricity market efficiency and bidding strategy analysis
Niu, Hui
This dissertation studies models for the analysis of market efficiency and bidding behaviors of market participants in electricity markets. Simulation models are developed to estimate how transmission and operational constraints affect the competitive benchmark and market prices based on submitted bids. This research contributes to the literature in three aspects. First, transmission and operational constraints, which have been neglected in most empirical literature, are considered in the competitive benchmark estimation model. Second, the effects of operational and transmission constraints on market prices are estimated through two models based on the submitted bids of market participants. Third, these models are applied to analyze the efficiency of the Electric Reliability Council Of Texas (ERCOT) real-time energy market by simulating its operations for the time period from January 2002 to April 2003. The characteristics and available information for the ERCOT market are considered. In electricity markets, electric firms compete through both spot market bidding and bilateral contract trading. A linear asymmetric supply function equilibrium (SFE) model with transmission constraints is proposed in this dissertation to analyze the bidding strategies with forward contracts. The research contributes to the literature in several aspects. First, we combine forward contracts, transmission constraints, and multi-period strategy (an obligation for firms to bid consistently over an extended time horizon such as a day or an hour) into the linear asymmetric supply function equilibrium framework. As an ex-ante model, it can provide qualitative insights into firms' behaviors. Second, the bidding strategies related to Transmission Congestion Rights (TCRs) are discussed by interpreting TCRs as linear combination of forwards. Third, the model is a general one in the sense that there is no limitation on the number of firms and scale of the transmission network, which can have
Evaluation of wave runup predictions from numerical and parametric models
Stockdon, Hilary F.; Thompson, David M.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Long, Joseph W.
2014-01-01
Wave runup during storms is a primary driver of coastal evolution, including shoreline and dune erosion and barrier island overwash. Runup and its components, setup and swash, can be predicted from a parameterized model that was developed by comparing runup observations to offshore wave height, wave period, and local beach slope. Because observations during extreme storms are often unavailable, a numerical model is used to simulate the storm-driven runup to compare to the parameterized model and then develop an approach to improve the accuracy of the parameterization. Numerically simulated and parameterized runup were compared to observations to evaluate model accuracies. The analysis demonstrated that setup was accurately predicted by both the parameterized model and numerical simulations. Infragravity swash heights were most accurately predicted by the parameterized model. The numerical model suffered from bias and gain errors that depended on whether a one-dimensional or two-dimensional spatial domain was used. Nonetheless, all of the predictions were significantly correlated to the observations, implying that the systematic errors can be corrected. The numerical simulations did not resolve the incident-band swash motions, as expected, and the parameterized model performed best at predicting incident-band swash heights. An assimilated prediction using a weighted average of the parameterized model and the numerical simulations resulted in a reduction in prediction error variance. Finally, the numerical simulations were extended to include storm conditions that have not been previously observed. These results indicated that the parameterized predictions of setup may need modification for extreme conditions; numerical simulations can be used to extend the validity of the parameterized predictions of infragravity swash; and numerical simulations systematically underpredict incident swash, which is relatively unimportant under extreme conditions.
An adaptive grid to improve the efficiency and accuracy of modelling underwater noise from shipping
Trigg, Leah; Chen, Feng; Shapiro, Georgy; Ingram, Simon; Embling, Clare
2017-04-01
Underwater noise from shipping is becoming a significant concern and has been listed as a pollutant under Descriptor 11 of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive. Underwater noise models are an essential tool to assess and predict noise levels for regulatory procedures such as environmental impact assessments and ship noise monitoring. There are generally two approaches to noise modelling. The first is based on simplified energy flux models, assuming either spherical or cylindrical propagation of sound energy. These models are very quick but they ignore important water column and seabed properties, and produce significant errors in the areas subject to temperature stratification (Shapiro et al., 2014). The second type of model (e.g. ray-tracing and parabolic equation) is based on an advanced physical representation of sound propagation. However, these acoustic propagation models are computationally expensive to execute. Shipping noise modelling requires spatial discretization in order to group noise sources together using a grid. A uniform grid size is often selected to achieve either the greatest efficiency (i.e. speed of computations) or the greatest accuracy. In contrast, this work aims to produce efficient and accurate noise level predictions by presenting an adaptive grid where cell size varies with distance from the receiver. The spatial range over which a certain cell size is suitable was determined by calculating the distance from the receiver at which propagation loss becomes uniform across a grid cell. The computational efficiency and accuracy of the resulting adaptive grid was tested by comparing it to uniform 1 km and 5 km grids. These represent an accurate and computationally efficient grid respectively. For a case study of the Celtic Sea, an application of the adaptive grid over an area of 160×160 km reduced the number of model executions required from 25600 for a 1 km grid to 5356 in December and to between 5056 and 13132 in August, which
Degradation of organic pollutants by Vacuum-Ultraviolet (VUV): Kinetic model and efficiency.
Xie, Pengchao; Yue, Siyang; Ding, Jiaqi; Wan, Ying; Li, Xuchun; Ma, Jun; Wang, Zongping
2018-04-15
Vacuum-Ultraviolet (VUV), an efficient and green method to produce hydroxyl radical (•OH), is effective in degrading numerous organic contaminants in aqueous solution. Here, we proposed an effective and simple kinetic model to describe the degradation of organic pollutants in VUV system, by taking the •OH scavenging effects of formed organic intermediates as co-existing organic matter in whole. Using benzoic acid (BA) as a •OH probe, •OH was regarded vital for pollutant degradation in VUV system, and the thus developed model successfully predicted its degradation kinetics under different conditions. Effects of typical influencing factors such as BA concentrations and UV intensity were investigated quantitatively by the model. Temperature was found to be an important influencing factor in the VUV system, and the quantum yield of •OH showed a positive linear dependence on temperature. Impacts of humic acid (HA), alkalinity, chloride, and water matrices (realistic waters) on the oxidation efficiency were also examined. BA degradation was significantly inhibited by HA due to its scavenging of •OH, but was influenced much less by the alkalinity and chloride; high oxidation efficiency was still obtained in the realistic water. The degradation kinetics of three other typical micropollutants including bisphenol A (BPA), nitrobenzene (NB) and dimethyl phthalate (DMP), and the mixture of co-existing BA, BPA and DMP were further studied, and the developed model predicted the experimental data well, especially in realistic water. It is expected that this study will provide an effective approach to predict the degradation of organic micropollutants by the promising VUV system, and broaden the application of VUV system in water treatment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Opportunities and Efficiencies in Building a New Service Desk Model.
Mayo, Alexa; Brown, Everly; Harris, Ryan
2017-01-01
In July 2015, the Health Sciences and Human Services Library (HS/HSL) at the University of Maryland, Baltimore (UMB), merged its reference and circulation services, creating the Information Services Department and Information Services Desk. Designing the Information Services Desk with a team approach allowed for the re-examination of the HS/HSL's service model from the ground up. With the creation of a single service point, the HS/HSL was able to create efficiencies, improve the user experience by eliminating handoffs, create a collaborative team environment, and engage information services staff in a variety of new projects.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cacuci, Dan Gabriel; Badea, Madalina Corina
2014-01-01
Highlights: • We applied the PMCMPS methodology to a paradigm neutron diffusion model. • We underscore the main steps in applying PMCMPS to treat very large coupled systems. • PMCMPS reduces the uncertainties in the optimally predicted responses and model parameters. • PMCMPS is for sequentially treating coupled systems that cannot be treated simultaneously. - Abstract: This work presents paradigm applications to reactor physics of the innovative mathematical methodology for “predictive modeling of coupled multi-physics systems (PMCMPS)” developed by Cacuci (2014). This methodology enables the assimilation of experimental and computational information and computes optimally predicted responses and model parameters with reduced predicted uncertainties, taking fully into account the coupling terms between the multi-physics systems, but using only the computational resources that would be needed to perform predictive modeling on each system separately. The paradigm examples presented in this work are based on a simple neutron diffusion model, chosen so as to enable closed-form solutions with clear physical interpretations. These paradigm examples also illustrate the computational efficiency of the PMCMPS, which enables the assimilation of additional experimental information, with a minimal increase in computational resources, to reduce the uncertainties in predicted responses and best-estimate values for uncertain model parameters, thus illustrating how very large systems can be treated without loss of information in a sequential rather than simultaneous manner
Operating Comfort Prediction Model of Human-Machine Interface Layout for Cabin Based on GEP.
Deng, Li; Wang, Guohua; Chen, Bo
2015-01-01
In view of the evaluation and decision-making problem of human-machine interface layout design for cabin, the operating comfort prediction model is proposed based on GEP (Gene Expression Programming), using operating comfort to evaluate layout scheme. Through joint angles to describe operating posture of upper limb, the joint angles are taken as independent variables to establish the comfort model of operating posture. Factor analysis is adopted to decrease the variable dimension; the model's input variables are reduced from 16 joint angles to 4 comfort impact factors, and the output variable is operating comfort score. The Chinese virtual human body model is built by CATIA software, which will be used to simulate and evaluate the operators' operating comfort. With 22 groups of evaluation data as training sample and validation sample, GEP algorithm is used to obtain the best fitting function between the joint angles and the operating comfort; then, operating comfort can be predicted quantitatively. The operating comfort prediction result of human-machine interface layout of driller control room shows that operating comfort prediction model based on GEP is fast and efficient, it has good prediction effect, and it can improve the design efficiency.
Thermal Efficiency Degradation Diagnosis Method Using Regression Model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jee, Chang Hyun; Heo, Gyun Young; Jang, Seok Won; Lee, In Cheol
2011-01-01
This paper proposes an idea for thermal efficiency degradation diagnosis in turbine cycles, which is based on turbine cycle simulation under abnormal conditions and a linear regression model. The correlation between the inputs for representing degradation conditions (normally unmeasured but intrinsic states) and the simulation outputs (normally measured but superficial states) was analyzed with the linear regression model. The regression models can inversely response an associated intrinsic state for a superficial state observed from a power plant. The diagnosis method proposed herein is classified into three processes, 1) simulations for degradation conditions to get measured states (referred as what-if method), 2) development of the linear model correlating intrinsic and superficial states, and 3) determination of an intrinsic state using the superficial states of current plant and the linear regression model (referred as inverse what-if method). The what-if method is to generate the outputs for the inputs including various root causes and/or boundary conditions whereas the inverse what-if method is the process of calculating the inverse matrix with the given superficial states, that is, component degradation modes. The method suggested in this paper was validated using the turbine cycle model for an operating power plant
Femtocells Sharing Management using mobility prediction model
Barth, Dominique; Choutri, Amira; Kloul, Leila; Marcé, Olivier
2013-01-01
Bandwidth sharing paradigm constitutes an incentive solution for the serious capacity management problem faced by operators as femtocells owners are able to offer a QoS guaranteed network access to mobile users in their femtocell coverage. In this paper, we consider a technico-economic bandwidth sharing model based on a reinforcement learning algorithm. Because such a model does not allow the convergence of the learning algorithm, due to the small size of the femtocells, the mobile users velo...
Validating predictions from climate envelope models
Watling, J.; Bucklin, D.; Speroterra, C.; Brandt, L.; Cabal, C.; Romañach, Stephanie S.; Mazzotti, Frank J.
2013-01-01
Climate envelope models are a potentially important conservation tool, but their ability to accurately forecast species’ distributional shifts using independent survey data has not been fully evaluated. We created climate envelope models for 12 species of North American breeding birds previously shown to have experienced poleward range shifts. For each species, we evaluated three different approaches to climate envelope modeling that differed in the way they treated climate-induced range expansion and contraction, using random forests and maximum entropy modeling algorithms. All models were calibrated using occurrence data from 1967–1971 (t1) and evaluated using occurrence data from 1998–2002 (t2). Model sensitivity (the ability to correctly classify species presences) was greater using the maximum entropy algorithm than the random forest algorithm. Although sensitivity did not differ significantly among approaches, for many species, sensitivity was maximized using a hybrid approach that assumed range expansion, but not contraction, in t2. Species for which the hybrid approach resulted in the greatest improvement in sensitivity have been reported from more land cover types than species for which there was little difference in sensitivity between hybrid and dynamic approaches, suggesting that habitat generalists may be buffered somewhat against climate-induced range contractions. Specificity (the ability to correctly classify species absences) was maximized using the random forest algorithm and was lowest using the hybrid approach. Overall, our results suggest cautious optimism for the use of climate envelope models to forecast range shifts, but also underscore the importance of considering non-climate drivers of species range limits. The use of alternative climate envelope models that make different assumptions about range expansion and contraction is a new and potentially useful way to help inform our understanding of climate change effects on species.
Validating predictions from climate envelope models.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
James I Watling
Full Text Available Climate envelope models are a potentially important conservation tool, but their ability to accurately forecast species' distributional shifts using independent survey data has not been fully evaluated. We created climate envelope models for 12 species of North American breeding birds previously shown to have experienced poleward range shifts. For each species, we evaluated three different approaches to climate envelope modeling that differed in the way they treated climate-induced range expansion and contraction, using random forests and maximum entropy modeling algorithms. All models were calibrated using occurrence data from 1967-1971 (t1 and evaluated using occurrence data from 1998-2002 (t2. Model sensitivity (the ability to correctly classify species presences was greater using the maximum entropy algorithm than the random forest algorithm. Although sensitivity did not differ significantly among approaches, for many species, sensitivity was maximized using a hybrid approach that assumed range expansion, but not contraction, in t2. Species for which the hybrid approach resulted in the greatest improvement in sensitivity have been reported from more land cover types than species for which there was little difference in sensitivity between hybrid and dynamic approaches, suggesting that habitat generalists may be buffered somewhat against climate-induced range contractions. Specificity (the ability to correctly classify species absences was maximized using the random forest algorithm and was lowest using the hybrid approach. Overall, our results suggest cautious optimism for the use of climate envelope models to forecast range shifts, but also underscore the importance of considering non-climate drivers of species range limits. The use of alternative climate envelope models that make different assumptions about range expansion and contraction is a new and potentially useful way to help inform our understanding of climate change effects on
Predicting the carcass composition of lambs by a simultaneous equations model
Cadavez, Vasco
2010-01-01
The objective of this study was to develop models to predict lamb carcass composition by simultaneous equations model (SEM), and to compare t he efficiency of the ordinary least squares (OLS), weight least squares (WLS), and seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) estimators. Forty male lambs, 22 of Churro Galego Bragançano Portuguese local breed and 18 of Suffolk breed were used. Lambs were slaughtered and carcasses were weighed approximately 30 min after slaughter in orde...
North Atlantic climate model bias influence on multiyear predictability
Wu, Y.; Park, T.; Park, W.; Latif, M.
2018-01-01
The influences of North Atlantic biases on multiyear predictability of unforced surface air temperature (SAT) variability are examined in the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). By employing a freshwater flux correction over the North Atlantic to the model, which strongly alleviates both North Atlantic sea surface salinity (SSS) and sea surface temperature (SST) biases, the freshwater flux-corrected integration depicts significantly enhanced multiyear SAT predictability in the North Atlantic sector in comparison to the uncorrected one. The enhanced SAT predictability in the corrected integration is due to a stronger and more variable Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its enhanced influence on North Atlantic SST. Results obtained from preindustrial control integrations of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) support the findings obtained from the KCM: models with large North Atlantic biases tend to have a weak AMOC influence on SAT and exhibit a smaller SAT predictability over the North Atlantic sector.
Efficient dynamic modeling of manipulators containing closed kinematic loops
Ferretti, Gianni; Rocco, Paolo
An approach to efficiently solve the forward dynamics problem for manipulators containing closed chains is proposed. The two main distinctive features of this approach are: the dynamics of the equivalent open loop tree structures (any closed loop can be in general modeled by imposing some additional kinematic constraints to a suitable tree structure) is computed through an efficient Newton Euler formulation; the constraint equations relative to the most commonly adopted closed chains in industrial manipulators are explicitly solved, thus, overcoming the redundancy of Lagrange's multipliers method while avoiding the inefficiency due to a numerical solution of the implicit constraint equations. The constraint equations considered for an explicit solution are those imposed by articulated gear mechanisms and planar closed chains (pantograph type structures). Articulated gear mechanisms are actually used in all industrial robots to transmit motion from actuators to links, while planar closed chains are usefully employed to increase the stiffness of the manipulators and their load capacity, as well to reduce the kinematic coupling of joint axes. The accuracy and the efficiency of the proposed approach are shown through a simulation test.
A resource allocation model to support efficient air quality management in South Africa
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
U Govender
2009-06-01
Full Text Available Research into management interventions that create the required enabling environment for growth and development in South Africa are both timely and appropriate. In the research reported in this paper, the authors investigated the level of efficiency of the Air Quality Units within the three spheres of government viz. National, Provincial, and Local Departments of Environmental Management in South Africa, with the view to develop a resource allocation model. The inputs to the model were calculated from the actual man-hours spent on twelve selected activities relating to project management, knowledge management and change management. The outputs assessed were aligned to the requirements of the mandates of these Departments. Several models were explored using multiple regressions and stepwise techniques. The model that best explained the efficiency of the organisations from the input data was selected. Logistic regression analysis was identified as the most appropriate tool. This model is used to predict the required resources per Air Quality Unit in the different spheres of government in an attempt at supporting and empowering the air quality regime to achieve improved output efficiency.
Osman, Marisol; Vera, C. S.
2017-10-01
This work presents an assessment of the predictability and skill of climate anomalies over South America. The study was made considering a multi-model ensemble of seasonal forecasts for surface air temperature, precipitation and regional circulation, from coupled global circulation models included in the Climate Historical Forecast Project. Predictability was evaluated through the estimation of the signal-to-total variance ratio while prediction skill was assessed computing anomaly correlation coefficients. Both indicators present over the continent higher values at the tropics than at the extratropics for both, surface air temperature and precipitation. Moreover, predictability and prediction skill for temperature are slightly higher in DJF than in JJA while for precipitation they exhibit similar levels in both seasons. The largest values of predictability and skill for both variables and seasons are found over northwestern South America while modest but still significant values for extratropical precipitation at southeastern South America and the extratropical Andes. The predictability levels in ENSO years of both variables are slightly higher, although with the same spatial distribution, than that obtained considering all years. Nevertheless, predictability at the tropics for both variables and seasons diminishes in both warm and cold ENSO years respect to that in all years. The latter can be attributed to changes in signal rather than in the noise. Predictability and prediction skill for low-level winds and upper-level zonal winds over South America was also assessed. Maximum levels of predictability for low-level winds were found were maximum mean values are observed, i.e. the regions associated with the equatorial trade winds, the midlatitudes westerlies and the South American Low-Level Jet. Predictability maxima for upper-level zonal winds locate where the subtropical jet peaks. Seasonal changes in wind predictability are observed that seem to be related to
Prediction skill of rainstorm events over India in the TIGGE weather prediction models
Karuna Sagar, S.; Rajeevan, M.; Vijaya Bhaskara Rao, S.; Mitra, A. K.
2017-12-01
Extreme rainfall events pose a serious threat of leading to severe floods in many countries worldwide. Therefore, advance prediction of its occurrence and spatial distribution is very essential. In this paper, an analysis has been made to assess the skill of numerical weather prediction models in predicting rainstorms over India. Using gridded daily rainfall data set and objective criteria, 15 rainstorms were identified during the monsoon season (June to September). The analysis was made using three TIGGE (THe Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) models. The models considered are the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the UK Met Office (UKMO). Verification of the TIGGE models for 43 observed rainstorm days from 15 rainstorm events has been made for the period 2007-2015. The comparison reveals that rainstorm events are predictable up to 5 days in advance, however with a bias in spatial distribution and intensity. The statistical parameters like mean error (ME) or Bias, root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (CC) have been computed over the rainstorm region using the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean. The study reveals that the spread is large in ECMWF and UKMO followed by the NCEP model. Though the ensemble spread is quite small in NCEP, the ensemble member averages are not well predicted. The rank histograms suggest that the forecasts are under prediction. The modified Contiguous Rain Area (CRA) technique was used to verify the spatial as well as the quantitative skill of the TIGGE models. Overall, the contribution from the displacement and pattern errors to the total RMSE is found to be more in magnitude. The volume error increases from 24 hr forecast to 48 hr forecast in all the three models.