WorldWideScience

Sample records for model parameters water

  1. WATGIS: A GIS-Based Lumped Parameter Water Quality Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glenn P. Fernandez; George M. Chescheir; R. Wayne Skaggs; Devendra M. Amatya

    2002-01-01

    A Geographic Information System (GIS)­based, lumped parameter water quality model was developed to estimate the spatial and temporal nitrogen­loading patterns for lower coastal plain watersheds in eastern North Carolina. The model uses a spatially distributed delivery ratio (DR) parameter to account for nitrogen retention or loss along a drainage network. Delivery...

  2. A simulation of water pollution model parameter estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibler, J. F.

    1976-01-01

    A parameter estimation procedure for a water pollution transport model is elaborated. A two-dimensional instantaneous-release shear-diffusion model serves as representative of a simple transport process. Pollution concentration levels are arrived at via modeling of a remote-sensing system. The remote-sensed data are simulated by adding Gaussian noise to the concentration level values generated via the transport model. Model parameters are estimated from the simulated data using a least-squares batch processor. Resolution, sensor array size, and number and location of sensor readings can be found from the accuracies of the parameter estimates.

  3. Determining extreme parameter correlation in ground water models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hill, Mary Cole; Østerby, Ole

    2003-01-01

    In ground water flow system models with hydraulic-head observations but without significant imposed or observed flows, extreme parameter correlation generally exists. As a result, hydraulic conductivity and recharge parameters cannot be uniquely estimated. In complicated problems, such correlation...... correlation coefficients with absolute values that round to 1.00 were good indicators of extreme parameter correlation, but smaller values were not necessarily good indicators of lack of correlation and resulting unique parameter estimates; (2) the SVD may be more difficult to interpret than parameter...

  4. Revised Parameters for the AMOEBA Polarizable Atomic Multipole Water Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laury, Marie L; Wang, Lee-Ping; Pande, Vijay S; Head-Gordon, Teresa; Ponder, Jay W

    2015-07-23

    A set of improved parameters for the AMOEBA polarizable atomic multipole water model is developed. An automated procedure, ForceBalance, is used to adjust model parameters to enforce agreement with ab initio-derived results for water clusters and experimental data for a variety of liquid phase properties across a broad temperature range. The values reported here for the new AMOEBA14 water model represent a substantial improvement over the previous AMOEBA03 model. The AMOEBA14 model accurately predicts the temperature of maximum density and qualitatively matches the experimental density curve across temperatures from 249 to 373 K. Excellent agreement is observed for the AMOEBA14 model in comparison to experimental properties as a function of temperature, including the second virial coefficient, enthalpy of vaporization, isothermal compressibility, thermal expansion coefficient, and dielectric constant. The viscosity, self-diffusion constant, and surface tension are also well reproduced. In comparison to high-level ab initio results for clusters of 2-20 water molecules, the AMOEBA14 model yields results similar to AMOEBA03 and the direct polarization iAMOEBA models. With advances in computing power, calibration data, and optimization techniques, we recommend the use of the AMOEBA14 water model for future studies employing a polarizable water model.

  5. Modeling Water Quality Parameters Using Data-driven Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shima Soleimani

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Surface water bodies are the most easily available water resources. Increase use and waste water withdrawal of surface water causes drastic changes in surface water quality. Water quality, importance as the most vulnerable and important water supply resources is absolutely clear. Unfortunately, in the recent years because of city population increase, economical improvement, and industrial product increase, entry of pollutants to water bodies has been increased. According to that water quality parameters express physical, chemical, and biological water features. So the importance of water quality monitoring is necessary more than before. Each of various uses of water, such as agriculture, drinking, industry, and aquaculture needs the water with a special quality. In the other hand, the exact estimation of concentration of water quality parameter is significant. Material and Methods: In this research, first two input variable models as selection methods (namely, correlation coefficient and principal component analysis were applied to select the model inputs. Data processing is consisting of three steps, (1 data considering, (2 identification of input data which have efficient on output data, and (3 selecting the training and testing data. Genetic Algorithm-Least Square Support Vector Regression (GA-LSSVR algorithm were developed to model the water quality parameters. In the LSSVR method is assumed that the relationship between input and output variables is nonlinear, but by using a nonlinear mapping relation can create a space which is named feature space in which relationship between input and output variables is defined linear. The developed algorithm is able to gain maximize the accuracy of the LSSVR method with auto LSSVR parameters. Genetic algorithm (GA is one of evolutionary algorithm which automatically can find the optimum coefficient of Least Square Support Vector Regression (LSSVR. The GA-LSSVR algorithm was employed to

  6. Local sensitivity analysis of a distributed parameters water quality model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pastres, R.; Franco, D.; Pecenik, G.; Solidoro, C.; Dejak, C.

    1997-01-01

    A local sensitivity analysis is presented of a 1D water-quality reaction-diffusion model. The model describes the seasonal evolution of one of the deepest channels of the lagoon of Venice, that is affected by nutrient loads from the industrial area and heat emission from a power plant. Its state variables are: water temperature, concentrations of reduced and oxidized nitrogen, Reactive Phosphorous (RP), phytoplankton, and zooplankton densities, Dissolved Oxygen (DO) and Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD). Attention has been focused on the identifiability and the ranking of the parameters related to primary production in different mixing conditions

  7. Modelling of bio-optical parameters of open ocean waters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vadim N. Pelevin

    2001-12-01

    Full Text Available An original method for estimating the concentration of chlorophyll pigments, absorption of yellow substance and absorption of suspended matter without pigments and yellow substance in detritus using spectral diffuse attenuation coefficient for downwelling irradiance and irradiance reflectance data has been applied to sea waters of different types in the open ocean (case 1. Using the effective numerical single parameter classification with the water type optical index m as a parameter over the whole range of the open ocean waters, the calculations have been carried out and the light absorption spectra of sea waters tabulated. These spectra are used to optimize the absorption models and thus to estimate the concentrations of the main admixtures in sea water. The value of m can be determined from direct measurements of the downward irradiance attenuation coefficient at 500 nm or calculated from remote sensing data using the regressions given in the article. The sea water composition can then be readily estimated from the tables given for any open ocean area if that one parameter m characterizing the basin is known.

  8. Application of regression model on stream water quality parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suleman, M.; Maqbool, F.; Malik, A.H.; Bhatti, Z.A.

    2012-01-01

    Statistical analysis was conducted to evaluate the effect of solid waste leachate from the open solid waste dumping site of Salhad on the stream water quality. Five sites were selected along the stream. Two sites were selected prior to mixing of leachate with the surface water. One was of leachate and other two sites were affected with leachate. Samples were analyzed for pH, water temperature, electrical conductivity (EC), total dissolved solids (TDS), Biological oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), dissolved oxygen (DO) and total bacterial load (TBL). In this study correlation coefficient r among different water quality parameters of various sites were calculated by using Pearson model and then average of each correlation between two parameters were also calculated, which shows TDS and EC and pH and BOD have significantly increasing r value, while temperature and TDS, temp and EC, DO and BL, DO and COD have decreasing r value. Single factor ANOVA at 5% level of significance was used which shows EC, TDS, TCL and COD were significantly differ among various sites. By the application of these two statistical approaches TDS and EC shows strongly positive correlation because the ions from the dissolved solids in water influence the ability of that water to conduct an electrical current. These two parameters significantly vary among 5 sites which are further confirmed by using linear regression. (author)

  9. Estimation of root water uptake parameters by inverse modeling with soil water content data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hupet, F.; Lambot, S.; Feddes, R.A.; Dam, van J.C.; Vanclooster, M.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we have tested the feasibility of the inverse modeling approach to derive root water uptake parameters (RWUP) from soil water content data using numerical experiments for three differently textured soils and for an optimal drying period. The RWUP of interest are the rooting depth and

  10. Parameter optimization method for the water quality dynamic model based on data-driven theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Shuxiu; Han, Songlin; Sun, Zhaochen

    2015-09-15

    Parameter optimization is important for developing a water quality dynamic model. In this study, we applied data-driven method to select and optimize parameters for a complex three-dimensional water quality model. First, a data-driven model was developed to train the response relationship between phytoplankton and environmental factors based on the measured data. Second, an eight-variable water quality dynamic model was established and coupled to a physical model. Parameter sensitivity analysis was investigated by changing parameter values individually in an assigned range. The above results served as guidelines for the control parameter selection and the simulated result verification. Finally, using the data-driven model to approximate the computational water quality model, we employed the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm to optimize the control parameters. The optimization routines and results were analyzed and discussed based on the establishment of the water quality model in Xiangshan Bay (XSB). Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Water quality modelling for ephemeral rivers: Model development and parameter assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannina, Giorgio; Viviani, Gaspare

    2010-11-01

    SummaryRiver water quality models can be valuable tools for the assessment and management of receiving water body quality. However, such water quality models require accurate model calibration in order to specify model parameters. Reliable model calibration requires an extensive array of water quality data that are generally rare and resource-intensive, both economically and in terms of human resources, to collect. In the case of small rivers, such data are scarce due to the fact that these rivers are generally considered too insignificant, from a practical and economic viewpoint, to justify the investment of such considerable time and resources. As a consequence, the literature contains very few studies on the water quality modelling for small rivers, and such studies as have been published are fairly limited in scope. In this paper, a simplified river water quality model is presented. The model is an extension of the Streeter-Phelps model and takes into account the physico-chemical and biological processes most relevant to modelling the quality of receiving water bodies (i.e., degradation of dissolved carbonaceous substances, ammonium oxidation, algal uptake and denitrification, dissolved oxygen balance, including depletion by degradation processes and supply by physical reaeration and photosynthetic production). The model has been applied to an Italian case study, the Oreto river (IT), which has been the object of an Italian research project aimed at assessing the river's water quality. For this reason, several monitoring campaigns have been previously carried out in order to collect water quantity and quality data on this river system. In particular, twelve river cross sections were monitored, and both flow and water quality data were collected for each cross section. The results of the calibrated model show satisfactory agreement with the measured data and results reveal important differences between the parameters used to model small rivers as compared to

  12. Development of wavelet-ANN models to predict water quality parameters in Hilo Bay, Pacific Ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alizadeh, Mohamad Javad; Kavianpour, Mohamad Reza

    2015-09-15

    The main objective of this study is to apply artificial neural network (ANN) and wavelet-neural network (WNN) models for predicting a variety of ocean water quality parameters. In this regard, several water quality parameters in Hilo Bay, Pacific Ocean, are taken under consideration. Different combinations of water quality parameters are applied as input variables to predict daily values of salinity, temperature and DO as well as hourly values of DO. The results demonstrate that the WNN models are superior to the ANN models. Also, the hourly models developed for DO prediction outperform the daily models of DO. For the daily models, the most accurate model has R equal to 0.96, while for the hourly model it reaches up to 0.98. Overall, the results show the ability of the model to monitor the ocean parameters, in condition with missing data, or when regular measurement and monitoring are impossible. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. DRAINMOD-GIS: a lumped parameter watershed scale drainage and water quality model

    Science.gov (United States)

    G.P. Fernandez; G.M. Chescheir; R.W. Skaggs; D.M. Amatya

    2006-01-01

    A watershed scale lumped parameter hydrology and water quality model that includes an uncertainty analysis component was developed and tested on a lower coastal plain watershed in North Carolina. Uncertainty analysis was used to determine the impacts of uncertainty in field and network parameters of the model on the predicted outflows and nitrate-nitrogen loads at the...

  14. COMPUTER MODELING OF SELECTED WATER QUALITY PARAMETERS IN WATER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wojciech Kruszyński

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the results of computer modeling of flowsand the age of the water in two rural communi-ties province Podlasie - Rutka and Jeleniewo. The model is made using Epanet. In the study, a series of variants of models simulating the behavior of existing distribution systems and water analyzes were performed century. Analysis of the age of the water in water works modeled showed areas where standing water is aging, not having the estuary and not giving way to fresh. Age of water in the pipes is an important indicator of its quality and shelf life. The longer standing water in the aqueduct, the more likely that it will develop dangerous bacteria and produce deposits which remain on the walls of the ducts.

  15. The identifiability of parameters in a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perk, van der M.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    1997-01-01

    The identifiability of model parameters of a steady state water quality model of the Biebrza River and the resulting variation in model results was examined by applying the Monte Carlo method which combines calibration, identifiability analysis, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis. The

  16. Assessment of structural model and parameter uncertainty with a multi-model system for soil water balance models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michalik, Thomas; Multsch, Sebastian; Frede, Hans-Georg; Breuer, Lutz

    2016-04-01

    Water for agriculture is strongly limited in arid and semi-arid regions and often of low quality in terms of salinity. The application of saline waters for irrigation increases the salt load in the rooting zone and has to be managed by leaching to maintain a healthy soil, i.e. to wash out salts by additional irrigation. Dynamic simulation models are helpful tools to calculate the root zone water fluxes and soil salinity content in order to investigate best management practices. However, there is little information on structural and parameter uncertainty for simulations regarding the water and salt balance of saline irrigation. Hence, we established a multi-model system with four different models (AquaCrop, RZWQM, SWAP, Hydrus1D/UNSATCHEM) to analyze the structural and parameter uncertainty by using the Global Likelihood and Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method. Hydrus1D/UNSATCHEM and SWAP were set up with multiple sets of different implemented functions (e.g. matric and osmotic stress for root water uptake) which results in a broad range of different model structures. The simulations were evaluated against soil water and salinity content observations. The posterior distribution of the GLUE analysis gives behavioral parameters sets and reveals uncertainty intervals for parameter uncertainty. Throughout all of the model sets, most parameters accounting for the soil water balance show a low uncertainty, only one or two out of five to six parameters in each model set displays a high uncertainty (e.g. pore-size distribution index in SWAP and Hydrus1D/UNSATCHEM). The differences between the models and model setups reveal the structural uncertainty. The highest structural uncertainty is observed for deep percolation fluxes between the model sets of Hydrus1D/UNSATCHEM (~200 mm) and RZWQM (~500 mm) that are more than twice as high for the latter. The model sets show a high variation in uncertainty intervals for deep percolation as well, with an interquartile range (IQR) of

  17. INFLUENCE OF TECHNOLOGICAL PARAMETERS ON AGROTEXTILES WATER ABSORBENCY USING ANOVA MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LUPU Iuliana G.

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Agrotextiles are now days extensively being used in horticulture, farming and other agricultural activities. Agriculture and textiles are the largest industries in the world providing basic needs such as food and clothing. Agrotextiles plays a significant role to help control environment for crop protection, eliminate variations in climate, weather change and generate optimum condition for plant growth. Water absorptive capacity is a very important property of needle-punched nonwovens used as irrigation substrate in horticulture. Nonwovens used as watering substrate distribute water uniformly and act as slight water buffer owing to the absorbent capacity. The paper analyzes the influence of needling process parameters on water absorptive capacity of needle-punched nonwovens by using ANOVA model. The model allows the identification of optimal action parameters in a shorter time and with less material expenses than by experimental research. The frequency of needle board and needle depth penetration has been used as independent variables while the water absorptive capacity as dependent variable for ANOVA regression model. Based on employed ANOVA model we have established that there is a significant influence of needling parameters on water absorbent capacity. The higher of depth needle penetration and needle board frequency, the higher is the compactness of fabric. A less porous structure has a lower water absorptive capacity.

  18. Model calibration and parameter estimation for environmental and water resource systems

    CERN Document Server

    Sun, Ne-Zheng

    2015-01-01

    This three-part book provides a comprehensive and systematic introduction to the development of useful models for complex systems. Part 1 covers the classical inverse problem for parameter estimation in both deterministic and statistical frameworks, Part 2 is dedicated to system identification, hyperparameter estimation, and model dimension reduction, and Part 3 considers how to collect data and construct reliable models for prediction and decision-making. For the first time, topics such as multiscale inversion, stochastic field parameterization, level set method, machine learning, global sensitivity analysis, data assimilation, model uncertainty quantification, robust design, and goal-oriented modeling, are systematically described and summarized in a single book from the perspective of model inversion, and elucidated with numerical examples from environmental and water resources modeling. Readers of this book will not only learn basic concepts and methods for simple parameter estimation, but also get famili...

  19. Mass-based hygroscopicity parameter interaction model and measurement of atmospheric aerosol water uptake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikhailov, E.; Vlasenko, S.; Rose, D.; Pöschl, U.

    2013-01-01

    In this study we derive and apply a mass-based hygroscopicity parameter interaction model for efficient description of concentration-dependent water uptake by atmospheric aerosol particles with complex chemical composition. The model approach builds on the single hygroscopicity parameter model of Petters and Kreidenweis (2007). We introduce an observable mass-based hygroscopicity parameter κm which can be deconvoluted into a dilute hygroscopicity parameter (κm0) and additional self- and cross-interaction parameters describing non-ideal solution behavior and concentration dependencies of single- and multi-component systems. For reference aerosol samples of sodium chloride and ammonium sulfate, the κm-interaction model (KIM) captures the experimentally observed concentration and humidity dependence of the hygroscopicity parameter and is in good agreement with an accurate reference model based on the Pitzer ion-interaction approach (Aerosol Inorganic Model, AIM). Experimental results for pure organic particles (malonic acid, levoglucosan) and for mixed organic-inorganic particles (malonic acid - ammonium sulfate) are also well reproduced by KIM, taking into account apparent or equilibrium solubilities for stepwise or gradual deliquescence and efflorescence transitions. The mixed organic-inorganic particles as well as atmospheric aerosol samples exhibit three distinctly different regimes of hygroscopicity: (I) a quasi-eutonic deliquescence & efflorescence regime at low-humidity where substances are just partly dissolved and exist also in a non-dissolved phase, (II) a gradual deliquescence & efflorescence regime at intermediate humidity where different solutes undergo gradual dissolution or solidification in the aqueous phase; and (III) a dilute regime at high humidity where the solutes are fully dissolved approaching their dilute hygroscopicity. For atmospheric aerosol samples collected from boreal rural air and from pristine tropical rainforest air (secondary

  20. Mass-based hygroscopicity parameter interaction model and measurement of atmospheric aerosol water uptake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Mikhailov

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study we derive and apply a mass-based hygroscopicity parameter interaction model for efficient description of concentration-dependent water uptake by atmospheric aerosol particles with complex chemical composition. The model approach builds on the single hygroscopicity parameter model of Petters and Kreidenweis (2007. We introduce an observable mass-based hygroscopicity parameter κm which can be deconvoluted into a dilute hygroscopicity parameterm0 and additional self- and cross-interaction parameters describing non-ideal solution behavior and concentration dependencies of single- and multi-component systems.

    For reference aerosol samples of sodium chloride and ammonium sulfate, the κm-interaction model (KIM captures the experimentally observed concentration and humidity dependence of the hygroscopicity parameter and is in good agreement with an accurate reference model based on the Pitzer ion-interaction approach (Aerosol Inorganic Model, AIM. Experimental results for pure organic particles (malonic acid, levoglucosan and for mixed organic-inorganic particles (malonic acid – ammonium sulfate are also well reproduced by KIM, taking into account apparent or equilibrium solubilities for stepwise or gradual deliquescence and efflorescence transitions.

    The mixed organic-inorganic particles as well as atmospheric aerosol samples exhibit three distinctly different regimes of hygroscopicity: (I a quasi-eutonic deliquescence & efflorescence regime at low-humidity where substances are just partly dissolved and exist also in a non-dissolved phase, (II a gradual deliquescence & efflorescence regime at intermediate humidity where different solutes undergo gradual dissolution or solidification in the aqueous phase; and (III a dilute regime at high humidity where the solutes are fully dissolved approaching their dilute hygroscopicity.

    For atmospheric aerosol samples

  1. Forecasting Models for Some Water Quality Parameters of Shatt Al-Hilla River, Iraq

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafa H. Al-Suhili

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides Artificial Neural Networks model versions for forecasting the monthly averages of some chemical water quality parameters of Shatt Al-Hilla River, which is located at Hilla City, south of Iraq. The water quality parameters investigated were Sulphate, Magnesium, Calcium, Alkalinity, and Total Hardness. Results indicate that for Sulphate and Calcium high correlation coefficients models were observed to be (0.9 and 0.88, while for Magnesium, Alkalinity and Hardness low correlation coefficients model were observed to be (0.48,0.58, and 0.51 respectively. Serial correlation behavior of these variables indicate at that high lag time correlations sequences are observed for the first two variables and low ones for the last three water quality parameters. A serial correlation coefficient analysis was done and indicates that as the variable exhibited weak lag correlation structure, then a successful ANN forecasting model could not be obtained even if many trials were done to enhance it's performance, such as increasing the number of nodes, the lagged input variables, and/or changing the learning rate and the momentum term values, or the use of different types of activation functions. On the other hand, those variables that have a strong lag correlation structure can easily fit successful ANN forecasting models

  2. Calibration of parameters of water supply network model using genetic algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boczar, Tomasz; Adamikiewicz, Norbert; Stanisławski, Włodzimierz

    2017-10-01

    Computer simulation models of water supply networks are commonly applied in the water industry. As part of the research works, results of which are presented in the paper, OFF-LINE and ON-LINE calibration of water supply network model parameters using two methods was carried out and compared. The network skeleton was developed in the Epanet software. For optimization two types of dependent variables were subjected: the pressure on the node and volume flow in the network section. The first calibration method regards to application of the genetic algorithm, which is a build in plugin - "Epanet Calibrator". The second method was related to the use of function ga, which is implemented in the MATLAB toolbox Genetic Algorithm and Direct Search. The possibilities of application of these algorithms to solve the issue of optimizing the parameters of the created model of water supply network in both cases: OFF-LINE and ON-LINE calibration was examined. An analysis of the effectiveness of the considered algorithms for different values of configuration parameters was performed. Based on the achieved results it was stated that application of the ga algorithm gives higher correlation of the calibrated values to the empirical data.

  3. COMPUTER MODELING OF HYDRODYNAMIC PARAMETERS AT BOUNDARIES OF WATER INTAKE AREA WITH FILTERING INTAKE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boronina Lyudmila Vladimirovna

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Improvement of water intake technologies are of great importance. These technologies are required to provide high quality water intake and treatment; they must be sufficiently simple and reliable, and they must be easily adjustable to particular local conditions. A mathematical model of a water supply area near the filtering water intake is proposed. On its basis, a software package designated for the calculation of parameters of the supply area along with its graphical representation is developed. To improve the efficiency of water treatment plants, the authors propose a new method of their integration into the landscape by taking account of velocity distributions in the water supply area within the water reservoir where the plant installation is planned. In the proposed relationship, the filtration rate and the scattering rate at the outlet of the supply area are taken into account, and they assure more precise projections of the inlet velocity. In the present study, assessment of accuracy of the mathematical model involving the scattering of a turbulent flow has been done. The assessment procedure is based on verification of the mean values equality hypothesis and on comparison with the experimental data. The results and conclusions obtained by means of the method developed by the authors have been verified through comparison of deviations of specific values calculated through the employment of similar algorithms in MathCAD, Maple and PLUMBING. The method of the water supply area analysis, with the turbulent scattering area having been taken into account, and the software package enable to numerically estimate the efficiency of the pre-purification process by tailoring a number of parameters of the filtering component of the water intake to the river hydrodynamic properties. Therefore, the method and the software package provide a new tool for better design, installation and operation of water treatment plants with respect to filtration and

  4. Parameter estimation techniques and uncertainty in ground water flow model predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zimmerman, D.A.; Davis, P.A.

    1990-01-01

    Quantification of uncertainty in predictions of nuclear waste repository performance is a requirement of Nuclear Regulatory Commission regulations governing the licensing of proposed geologic repositories for high-level radioactive waste disposal. One of the major uncertainties in these predictions is in estimating the ground-water travel time of radionuclides migrating from the repository to the accessible environment. The cause of much of this uncertainty has been attributed to a lack of knowledge about the hydrogeologic properties that control the movement of radionuclides through the aquifers. A major reason for this lack of knowledge is the paucity of data that is typically available for characterizing complex ground-water flow systems. Because of this, considerable effort has been put into developing parameter estimation techniques that infer property values in regions where no measurements exist. Currently, no single technique has been shown to be superior or even consistently conservative with respect to predictions of ground-water travel time. This work was undertaken to compare a number of parameter estimation techniques and to evaluate how differences in the parameter estimates and the estimation errors are reflected in the behavior of the flow model predictions. That is, we wished to determine to what degree uncertainties in flow model predictions may be affected simply by the choice of parameter estimation technique used. 3 refs., 2 figs

  5. Recommended Parameter Values for GENII Modeling of Radionuclides in Routine Air and Water Releases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Snyder, Sandra F. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Arimescu, Carmen [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Napier, Bruce A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hay, Tristan R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2012-11-01

    The GENII v2 code is used to estimate dose to individuals or populations from the release of radioactive materials into air or water. Numerous parameter values are required for input into this code. User-defined parameters cover the spectrum from chemical data, meteorological data, agricultural data, and behavioral data. This document is a summary of parameter values that reflect conditions in the United States. Reasonable regional and age-dependent data is summarized. Data availability and quality varies. The set of parameters described address scenarios for chronic air emissions or chronic releases to public waterways. Considerations for the special tritium and carbon-14 models are briefly addressed. GENIIv2.10.0 is the current software version that this document supports.

  6. The model relationship of wastes for parameter design with green lean production of fresh water

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mastiadi Tamjidillah

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Lean manufacturing is about eliminating waste including the seven traditional, this writing suggested an observation on no value added of seven wastes influencing the process of fresh water production. The relationship value among waste was statistically verified to create an approach for continuous improvement action. Thus, the main goal of this research is to develop a methodology of relationship among wastes and eliminate them. In relationship among wastes, it could be known that the high value indicating how often it happened in the production process gave direct cause in the system of fresh water treatment. A recommendation to reduce the highest value of waste is by doing improvement on parameter setting to obtain an optimum mixing model between water supply, alum and stroke pump with Taguchi method. The interaction of relationship among these seven types of waste can be portrayed using fishbone diagram and a relationship model among wastes using PLS smart (partial least squares. The final relationship model with the highest value of waste was analyzed using off-line quality control to upgrade the quality of fresh water used as the basis to eliminate waste and find out the optimal parameter of mixing process in accordance with the health standard.

  7. Estimation of Key Parameters of the Coupled Energy and Water Model by Assimilating Land Surface Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdolghafoorian, A.; Farhadi, L.

    2017-12-01

    Accurate estimation of land surface heat and moisture fluxes, as well as root zone soil moisture, is crucial in various hydrological, meteorological, and agricultural applications. Field measurements of these fluxes are costly and cannot be readily scaled to large areas relevant to weather and climate studies. Therefore, there is a need for techniques to make quantitative estimates of heat and moisture fluxes using land surface state observations that are widely available from remote sensing across a range of scale. In this work, we applies the variational data assimilation approach to estimate land surface fluxes and soil moisture profile from the implicit information contained Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Soil Moisture (SM) (hereafter the VDA model). The VDA model is focused on the estimation of three key parameters: 1- neutral bulk heat transfer coefficient (CHN), 2- evaporative fraction from soil and canopy (EF), and 3- saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ksat). CHN and EF regulate the partitioning of available energy between sensible and latent heat fluxes. Ksat is one of the main parameters used in determining infiltration, runoff, groundwater recharge, and in simulating hydrological processes. In this study, a system of coupled parsimonious energy and water model will constrain the estimation of three unknown parameters in the VDA model. The profile of SM (LST) at multiple depths is estimated using moisture diffusion (heat diffusion) equation. In this study, the uncertainties of retrieved unknown parameters and fluxes are estimated from the inverse of Hesian matrix of cost function which is computed using the Lagrangian methodology. Analysis of uncertainty provides valuable information about the accuracy of estimated parameters and their correlation and guide the formulation of a well-posed estimation problem. The results of proposed algorithm are validated with a series of experiments using a synthetic data set generated by the simultaneous heat and

  8. Comparing the Performance of Artificial Intelligence Models in Estimating Water Quality Parameters in Periods of Low and High Water Flow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    majid montaseri

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: A total dissolved solid (TDS is an important indicator for water quality assesment. Since the composition of mineral salts and discharge affects the TDS of water, it is important to understand the relationships of mineral salts composition with TDS. Materials and Methods: In this study, methods of artificial neural networks with five different training algorithm,Levenberg-Marquardt (LM, Scaled Conjugate Gradient (SCG, Fletcher Conjugate Gradient (CGF, One Step Secant (OSS and Gradient descent with adaptive learning rate backpropagation(GDAalgorithm and adaptive Neurofuzzy inference system based on Subtractive Clustering were used to model water quality properties of Zarrineh River Basin, to be developed in total dissolved solids prediction. ANN and ANFIS program code were written in MATLAB language. Here, the ANN with one hidden layer was used and the hidden nodes’ number was determined using trial and error. Different activation functions (logarithm sigmoid, tangent sigmoid and linear were tried for the hidden and output nodes. Therefore, water quality data from seven hydrometer stationswere used during the statistical period of 18years (1993-2010.In this research, the study period was divided into two periods of dry and wet flow, and then in a preliminary statistical analysis, the main parameters affecting the estimation of the TDS are determined and isused for modeling. 75% of data are used for remaining and 25% of the data are used for evaluation of the model, randomly. In this paper, three statistical evaluation criteria, correlation coefficient (R, the root mean square error (RMSE and mean absolute error (MAE were used to assess models’ performances. Results and Discussion: By applying correlation coefficients method between the parameters of water quality and discharge with total dissolved solid in two periods, wet and dry periods, the significant (at 95% level variables entered into the model were Q, HCO3., Cl, So4, Ca

  9. Lumped-parameter models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, M.

    2006-12-15

    A lumped-parameter model represents the frequency dependent soil-structure interaction of a massless foundation placed on or embedded into an unbounded soil domain. In this technical report the steps of establishing a lumped-parameter model are presented. Following sections are included in this report: Static and dynamic formulation, Simple lumped-parameter models and Advanced lumped-parameter models. (au)

  10. A method for upscaling soil parameters for use in a dynamic modelling assessment of water quality in the Pyrenees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camarero, Lluís; Garcia-Pausas, Jordi; Huguet, Carme

    2009-02-15

    Dynamic modelling of hydrochemistry is a valuable tool to study and predict the recovery of surface waters from acidification, and to assess the effects of confounding factors (such as delayed soil response and changing climate) that cause hysteresis during reversal from acidification. The availability of soil data is often a limitation for the regional application of dynamic models. Here we present a method to upscale site-specific soil properties to a regional scale in order to circumvent that problem. The method proposed for upscaling relied on multiple regression models between soil properties and a suite of environmental variables used as predictors. Soil measurements were made during a field survey in 13 catchments in the Pyrenees (NW Spain). The environmental variables were derived from mapped or remotely sensed topographic, lithological, land-cover, and climatic information. Regression models were then used to model soil parameters, which were supplied as input for the biogeochemical model MAGIC (Model for Acidification of Groundwater In Catchments) in order to reconstruct the history of acidification in Pyrenean lakes and forecast the recovery under a scenario of reduced acid deposition. The resulting simulations were then compared with model runs using field measurements as input parameters. These comparisons showed that regional averages for the key water and soil chemistry variables were suitably reproduced when using the modelled parameters. Simulations of water chemistry at the catchment scale also showed good results, whereas simulated soil parameters reflected uncertainty in the initial modelled estimates.

  11. An Interval-Parameter Fuzzy Linear Programming with Stochastic Vertices Model for Water Resources Management under Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Han

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available An interval-parameter fuzzy linear programming with stochastic vertices (IFLPSV method is developed for water resources management under uncertainty by coupling interval-parameter fuzzy linear programming (IFLP with stochastic programming (SP. As an extension of existing interval parameter fuzzy linear programming, the developed IFLPSV approach has advantages in dealing with dual uncertainty optimization problems, which uncertainty presents as interval parameter with stochastic vertices in both of the objective functions and constraints. The developed IFLPSV method improves upon the IFLP method by allowing dual uncertainty parameters to be incorporated into the optimization processes. A hybrid intelligent algorithm based on genetic algorithm and artificial neural network is used to solve the developed model. The developed method is then applied to water resources allocation in Beijing city of China in 2020, where water resources shortage is a challenging issue. The results indicate that reasonable solutions have been obtained, which are helpful and useful for decision makers. Although the amount of water supply from Guanting and Miyun reservoirs is declining with rainfall reduction, water supply from the South-to-North Water Transfer project will have important impact on water supply structure of Beijing city, particularly in dry year and extraordinary dry year.

  12. [Sensitivity analysis of AnnAGNPS model's hydrology and water quality parameters based on the perturbation analysis method].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xi, Qing; Li, Zhao-Fu; Luo, Chuan

    2014-05-01

    Sensitivity analysis of hydrology and water quality parameters has a great significance for integrated model's construction and application. Based on AnnAGNPS model's mechanism, terrain, hydrology and meteorology, field management, soil and other four major categories of 31 parameters were selected for the sensitivity analysis in Zhongtian river watershed which is a typical small watershed of hilly region in the Taihu Lake, and then used the perturbation method to evaluate the sensitivity of the parameters to the model's simulation results. The results showed that: in the 11 terrain parameters, LS was sensitive to all the model results, RMN, RS and RVC were generally sensitive and less sensitive to the output of sediment but insensitive to the remaining results. For hydrometeorological parameters, CN was more sensitive to runoff and sediment and relatively sensitive for the rest results. In field management, fertilizer and vegetation parameters, CCC, CRM and RR were less sensitive to sediment and particulate pollutants, the six fertilizer parameters (FR, FD, FID, FOD, FIP, FOP) were particularly sensitive for nitrogen and phosphorus nutrients. For soil parameters, K is quite sensitive to all the results except the runoff, the four parameters of the soil's nitrogen and phosphorus ratio (SONR, SINR, SOPR, SIPR) were less sensitive to the corresponding results. The simulation and verification results of runoff in Zhongtian watershed show a good accuracy with the deviation less than 10% during 2005- 2010. Research results have a direct reference value on AnnAGNPS model's parameter selection and calibration adjustment. The runoff simulation results of the study area also proved that the sensitivity analysis was practicable to the parameter's adjustment and showed the adaptability to the hydrology simulation in the Taihu Lake basin's hilly region and provide reference for the model's promotion in China.

  13. Modelling water fluxes in a pine wood soil-vegetation-atmosphere system. Comparison of a water budget and water flow model using different parameter data sources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schneider, S.; Jacques, D.; Mallants, D.

    2010-02-15

    For modelling complex hydrological problems, realistic models and accurate hydraulic properties are needed. A mechanistic model (HYDRUS-1D) and a compartment model are evaluated for simulating the water balance in a soil-vegetation-atmosphere system using time series of measured water content at several depths in two lysimeters in a podzol soil with Scots Pine vegetation. 10 calibration scenarios are used to investigate the impact of the model type and the number of horizons in the profile on the calibration accuracy. Main results are: (i) with a large number of soil layers, both models describe accurately the water contents at all depths, (II) the number of soil layers is the major factor that controls the quality of the calibration. The compartment model is as an abstracted model and the mechanistic model is our reference model. Drainage values are the considered output. Drainage values simulated by the abstracted model were close to those of the reference model when averaged over a sufficiently long period (about 9 months). This result suggests that drainage values obtained with an abstracted model are reliably when averaged over sufficiently long periods; the abstracted model needs less computational time without an important loss of accuracy.

  14. Integrated water system simulation by considering hydrological and biogeochemical processes: model development, with parameter sensitivity and autocalibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y. Y.; Shao, Q. X.; Ye, A. Z.; Xing, H. T.; Xia, J.

    2016-02-01

    Integrated water system modeling is a feasible approach to understanding severe water crises in the world and promoting the implementation of integrated river basin management. In this study, a classic hydrological model (the time variant gain model: TVGM) was extended to an integrated water system model by coupling multiple water-related processes in hydrology, biogeochemistry, water quality, and ecology, and considering the interference of human activities. A parameter analysis tool, which included sensitivity analysis, autocalibration and model performance evaluation, was developed to improve modeling efficiency. To demonstrate the model performances, the Shaying River catchment, which is the largest highly regulated and heavily polluted tributary of the Huai River basin in China, was selected as the case study area. The model performances were evaluated on the key water-related components including runoff, water quality, diffuse pollution load (or nonpoint sources) and crop yield. Results showed that our proposed model simulated most components reasonably well. The simulated daily runoff at most regulated and less-regulated stations matched well with the observations. The average correlation coefficient and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency were 0.85 and 0.70, respectively. Both the simulated low and high flows at most stations were improved when the dam regulation was considered. The daily ammonium-nitrogen (NH4-N) concentration was also well captured with the average correlation coefficient of 0.67. Furthermore, the diffuse source load of NH4-N and the corn yield were reasonably simulated at the administrative region scale. This integrated water system model is expected to improve the simulation performances with extension to more model functionalities, and to provide a scientific basis for the implementation in integrated river basin managements.

  15. DETERMINATION OF ACTIVATED SLUDGE MODEL ASDM PARAMETERS FOR WASTE WATER TREATMENT PLANT OPERATING IN THE SEQUENTIAL–FLOW TECHNOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dariusz Zdebik

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a method for calibration of activated sludge model with the use of computer program BioWin. Computer scheme has been developed on the basis of waste water treatment plant operating in the sequential – flow technology. For calibration of the activated sludge model data of influent and treated effluent from the existing object were used. As a result of conducted analysis was a change in biokinetic model and kinetic parameters parameters of wastewater treatment facilities. The presented method of study of the selected parameters impact on the activated sludge biokinetic model (including autotrophs maximum growth rate, the share of organic slurry in suspension general operational, efficiency secondary settling tanks can be used for conducting simulation studies of other treatment plants.

  16. Water quality model parameter identification of an open channel in a long distance water transfer project based on finite difference, difference evolution and Monte Carlo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Dongguo; Yang, Haidong; Xiao, Yi; Liu, Biyu

    2014-01-01

    A new method is proposed based on the finite difference method (FDM), differential evolution algorithm and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation to identify water quality model parameters of an open channel in a long distance water transfer project. Firstly, this parameter identification problem is considered as a Bayesian estimation problem and the forward numerical model is solved by FDM, and the posterior probability density function of the parameters is deduced. Then these parameters are estimated using a sampling method with differential evolution algorithm and MCMC simulation. Finally this proposed method is compared with FDM-MCMC by a twin experiment. The results show that the proposed method can be used to identify water quality model parameters of an open channel in a long distance water transfer project under different scenarios better with fewer iterations, higher reliability and anti-noise capability compared with FDM-MCMC. Therefore, it provides a new idea and method to solve the traceability problem in sudden water pollution accidents.

  17. Death valley regional ground-water flow model calibration using optimal parameter estimation methods and geoscientific information systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Agnese, F. A.; Faunt, C.C.; Hill, M.C.; Turner, A.K.

    1999-01-01

    A regional-scale, steady-state, saturated-zone ground-water flow model was constructed to evaluate potential regional ground-water flow in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The model was limited to three layers in an effort to evaluate the characteristics governing large-scale subsurface flow. Geoscientific information systems (GSIS) were used to characterize the complex surface and subsurface hydrogeologic conditions of the area, and this characterization was used to construct likely conceptual models of the flow system. Subsurface properties in this system vary dramatically, producing high contrasts and abrupt contacts. This characteristic, combined with the large scale of the model, make zonation the logical choice for representing the hydraulic-conductivity distribution. Different conceptual models were evaluated using sensitivity analysis and were tested by using nonlinear regression to determine parameter values that are optimal, in that they provide the best match between the measured and simulated heads and flows. The different conceptual models were judged based both on the fit achieved to measured heads and spring flows, and the plausibility of the optimal parameter values. One of the conceptual models considered appears to represent the system most realistically. Any apparent model error is probably caused by the coarse vertical and horizontal discretization.A regional-scale, steady-state, saturated-zone ground-water flow model was constructed to evaluate potential regional ground-water flow in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The model was limited to three layers in an effort to evaluate the characteristics governing large-scale subsurface flow. Geoscientific information systems (GSIS) were used to characterize the complex surface and subsurface hydrogeologic conditions of the area, and this characterization was used to construct likely conceptual models of the flow system. Subsurface properties in this system vary dramatically, producing

  18. Design of Photoreactor and Study of Modeling Parameters for Removal of Pesticides in Water: a Case Study of Malathion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amit K. Sharma

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The design of photoreactor and its modeling parameters for removal of environmental pollutants in water are described. The work will provide the instructions to design of photoreactor with modeling parameters, and to allow these parameters to communicate degradation efficiency of the analyte in water samples. The modeling parameters are outlined by which the photoreactor can use UV source to degrade the composition of pollutant. The operation of degradation through photoreactor is applied to the study of degradation rate of pollutant i.e. malathion and the produced informative data at various time intervals also correlated with UV-vis spectrophotometry for the validation of results. The purpose of designed photoreactor is to know the best percentage degradability of pollutants at micro to nano gram levels using nanosemiconductor sensitizer like TiO2. Such designs promises the high impact at very low levels, less time consuming process, low consumable solvents and suit for field application purposes which focuses the merits of the designed photoreactor.

  19. A review of applications of satellite SAR, optical, altimetry and DEM data for surface water modelling, mapping and parameter estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musa, Z. N.; Popescu, I.; Mynett, A.

    2015-09-01

    Hydrological data collection requires deployment of physical infrastructure like rain gauges, water level gauges, as well as use of expensive equipment like echo sounders. Many countries around the world have recorded a decrease in deployment of physical infrastructure for hydrological measurements; developing countries especially have less of this infrastructure and, where it exists, it is poorly maintained. Satellite remote sensing can bridge this gap, and has been applied by hydrologists over the years, with the earliest applications in water body and flood mapping. With the availability of more optical satellites with relatively low temporal resolutions globally, satellite data are commonly used for mapping of water bodies, testing of inundation models, precipitation monitoring, and mapping of flood extent. Use of satellite data to estimate hydrological parameters continues to increase due to use of better sensors, improvement in knowledge of and utilization of satellite data, and expansion of research topics. A review of applications of satellite remote sensing in surface water modelling, mapping and parameter estimation is presented, and its limitations for surface water applications are also discussed.

  20. Directional spread parameter at intermediate water depth

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    SanilKumar, V.; Deo, M.C.; Anand, N.M.; AshokKumar, K.

    The characteristics of directional spread parameters at intermediate water depth are investigated based on a cosine power '2s' directional spreading model. This is based on wave measurements carried out using a Datawell directional waverider buoy...

  1. Sensitivity analysis of the waste composition and water content parameters on the biogas production models on solid waste landfills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigo-Ilarri, Javier; Segura-Sobrino, Francisco; Rodrigo-Clavero, Maria-Elena

    2014-05-01

    Landfills are commonly used as the final deposit of urban solid waste. Despite the waste is previously processed on a treatment plant, the final amount of organic matter which reaches the landfill is large however. The biodegradation of this organic matter forms a mixture of greenhouse gases (essentially Methane and Carbon-Dioxide as well as Ammonia and Hydrogen Sulfide). From the environmental point of view, solid waste landfills are therefore considered to be one of the main greenhouse gas sources. Different mathematical models are usually applied to predict the amount of biogas produced on real landfills. The waste chemical composition and the availability of water in the solid waste appear to be the main parameters of these models. Results obtained when performing a sensitivity analysis over the biogas production model parameters under real conditions are shown. The importance of a proper characterizacion of the waste as well as the necessity of improving the understanding of the behaviour and development of the water on the unsaturated mass of waste are emphasized.

  2. MODEL-ASSISTED ESTIMATION OF THE GENETIC VARIABILITY IN PHYSIOLOGICAL PARAMETERS RELATED TO TOMATO FRUIT GROWTH UNDER CONTRASTED WATER CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Constantinescu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Drought stress is a major abiotic stres threatening plant and crop productivity. In case of fleshy fruits, understanding Drought stress is a major abiotic stress threatening plant and crop productivity. In case of fleshy fruits, understanding mechanisms governing water and carbon accumulations and identifying genes, QTLs and phenotypes, that will enable trade-offs between fruit growth and quality under Water Deficit (WD condition is a crucial challenge for breeders and growers. In the present work, 117 recombinant inbred lines of a population of Solanum lycopersicum were phenotyped under control and WD conditions. Plant water status, fruit growth and composition were measured and data were used to calibrate a process-based model describing water and carbon fluxes in a growing fruit as a function of plant and environment. Eight genotype-dependent model parameters were estimated using a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm in order to minimize the prediction errors of fruit dry and fresh mass throughout fruit development. WD increased the fruit dry matter content (up to 85 % and decreased its fresh weight (up to 60 %, big fruit size genotypes being the most sensitive. The mean normalized root mean squared errors of the predictions ranged between 16-18 % in the population. Variability in model genotypic parameters allowed us to explore diverse genetic strategies in response to WD. An interesting group of genotypes could be discriminated in which i the low loss of fresh mass under WD was associated with high active uptake of sugars and low value of the maximum cell wall extensibility, and ii the high dry matter content in control treatment (C was associated with a slow decrease of mass flow. Using 501 SNP markers genotyped across the genome, a QTL analysis of model parameters allowed to detect three main QTLs related to xylem and phloem conductivities, on chromosomes 2, 4 and 8. The model was then applied to design ideotypes with high dry matter

  3. Sensitivity of a carbon and productivity model to climatic, water, terrain, and biophysical parameters in a Rocky Mountain watershed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, S.; Peddle, D.R.; Coburn, C.A.; Kienzle, S.

    2008-01-01

    Net primary productivity (NPP) is a key component of the terrestrial carbon cycle and is important in ecological, watershed, and forest management studies, and more broadly in global climate change research. Determining the relative importance and magnitude of uncertainty of NPP model inputs is important for proper carbon reporting over larger areas and time periods. This paper presents a systematic evaluation of the boreal ecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS) model in mountainous terrain using an established montane forest test site in Kananaskis, Alberta, in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Model runs were based on forest (land cover, leaf area index (LAI), biomass) and climate-water inputs (solar radiation, temperature, precipitation, humidity, soil water holding capacity) derived from digital elevation model (DEM) derivatives, climate data, geographical information system (GIS) functions, and topographically corrected satellite imagery. Four sensitivity analyses were conducted as a controlled series of experiments involving (i) NPP individual parameter sensitivity for a full growing season, (ii) NPP independent variation tests (parameter μ ± 1σ), (iii) factorial analyses to assess more complex multiple-factor interactions, and (iv) topographic correction. The results, validated against field measurements, showed that modeled NPP was sensitive to most inputs measured in the study area, with LAI and forest type the most important forest input, and solar radiation the most important climate input. Soil available water holding capacity expressed as a function of wetness index was only significant in conjunction with precipitation when both parameters represented a moisture-deficit situation. NPP uncertainty resulting from topographic influence was equivalent to 140 kg C ha -1 ·year -1 . This suggested that topographic correction of model inputs is important for accurate NPP estimation. The BEPS model, designed originally for flat boreal forests, was shown to be

  4. Sensitivity of a carbon and productivity model to climatic, water, terrain, and biophysical parameters in a Rocky Mountain watershed

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, S.; Peddle, D.R.; Coburn, C.A.; Kienzle, S. [Univ. of Lethbridge, Dept. of Geography, Lethbridge, Alberta (Canada)

    2008-06-15

    Net primary productivity (NPP) is a key component of the terrestrial carbon cycle and is important in ecological, watershed, and forest management studies, and more broadly in global climate change research. Determining the relative importance and magnitude of uncertainty of NPP model inputs is important for proper carbon reporting over larger areas and time periods. This paper presents a systematic evaluation of the boreal ecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS) model in mountainous terrain using an established montane forest test site in Kananaskis, Alberta, in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Model runs were based on forest (land cover, leaf area index (LAI), biomass) and climate-water inputs (solar radiation, temperature, precipitation, humidity, soil water holding capacity) derived from digital elevation model (DEM) derivatives, climate data, geographical information system (GIS) functions, and topographically corrected satellite imagery. Four sensitivity analyses were conducted as a controlled series of experiments involving (i) NPP individual parameter sensitivity for a full growing season, (ii) NPP independent variation tests (parameter {mu} {+-} 1{sigma}), (iii) factorial analyses to assess more complex multiple-factor interactions, and (iv) topographic correction. The results, validated against field measurements, showed that modeled NPP was sensitive to most inputs measured in the study area, with LAI and forest type the most important forest input, and solar radiation the most important climate input. Soil available water holding capacity expressed as a function of wetness index was only significant in conjunction with precipitation when both parameters represented a moisture-deficit situation. NPP uncertainty resulting from topographic influence was equivalent to 140 kg C ha{sup -1}{center_dot}year{sup -1}. This suggested that topographic correction of model inputs is important for accurate NPP estimation. The BEPS model, designed originally for flat

  5. Response model parameter linking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barrett, M.L.D.

    2015-01-01

    With a few exceptions, the problem of linking item response model parameters from different item calibrations has been conceptualized as an instance of the problem of equating observed scores on different test forms. This thesis argues, however, that the use of item response models does not require

  6. A Compilation of Rate Parameters of Water-Mineral Interaction Kinetics for Application to Geochemical Modeling

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Palandri, James L; Kharaka, Yousif K

    2004-01-01

    .... Modeling of some systems, such as those at low temperature with relatively high hydrologic flow rates, or those perturbed by the subsurface injection of industrial waste such as CO2 or H2S, must...

  7. Parameter Identification with the Random Perturbation Particle Swarm Optimization Method and Sensitivity Analysis of an Advanced Pressurized Water Reactor Nuclear Power Plant Model for Power Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Wang

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The ability to obtain appropriate parameters for an advanced pressurized water reactor (PWR unit model is of great significance for power system analysis. The attributes of that ability include the following: nonlinear relationships, long transition time, intercoupled parameters and difficult obtainment from practical test, posed complexity and difficult parameter identification. In this paper, a model and a parameter identification method for the PWR primary loop system were investigated. A parameter identification process was proposed, using a particle swarm optimization (PSO algorithm that is based on random perturbation (RP-PSO. The identification process included model variable initialization based on the differential equations of each sub-module and program setting method, parameter obtainment through sub-module identification in the Matlab/Simulink Software (Math Works Inc., Natick, MA, USA as well as adaptation analysis for an integrated model. A lot of parameter identification work was carried out, the results of which verified the effectiveness of the method. It was found that the change of some parameters, like the fuel temperature and coolant temperature feedback coefficients, changed the model gain, of which the trajectory sensitivities were not zero. Thus, obtaining their appropriate values had significant effects on the simulation results. The trajectory sensitivities of some parameters in the core neutron dynamic module were interrelated, causing the parameters to be difficult to identify. The model parameter sensitivity could be different, which would be influenced by the model input conditions, reflecting the parameter identifiability difficulty degree for various input conditions.

  8. A Bayesian approach for evaluation of the effect of water quality model parameter uncertainty on TMDLs: A case study of Miyun Reservoir

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liang, Shidong, E-mail: emblembl@sina.com [School of Environment, Tsinghua University, 1 Qinghuayuan, Haidian District, Beijing 100084 (China); Jia, Haifeng, E-mail: jhf@tsinghua.edu.cn [School of Environment, Tsinghua University, 1 Qinghuayuan, Haidian District, Beijing 100084 (China); Xu, Changqing, E-mail: 2008changqing@163.com [School of Environment, Tsinghua University, 1 Qinghuayuan, Haidian District, Beijing 100084 (China); Xu, Te, E-mail: xt_lichking@qq.com [School of Environment, Tsinghua University, 1 Qinghuayuan, Haidian District, Beijing 100084 (China); Melching, Charles, E-mail: steve.melching17@gmail.com [Melching Water Solutions, 4030 W. Edgerton Avenue, Greenfield, WI 53221 (United States)

    2016-08-01

    Facing increasingly serious water pollution, the Chinese government is changing the environmental management strategy from solely pollutant concentration control to a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) program, and water quality models are increasingly being applied to determine the allowable pollutant load in the TMDL. Despite the frequent use of models, few studies have focused on how parameter uncertainty in water quality models affect the allowable pollutant loads in the TMDL program, particularly for complicated and high-dimension water quality models. Uncertainty analysis for such models is limited by time-consuming simulation and high-dimensionality and nonlinearity in parameter spaces. In this study, an allowable pollutant load calculation platform was established using the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC), which is a widely applied hydrodynamic-water quality model. A Bayesian approach, i.e. the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm, which is a high-efficiency, multi-chain Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, was applied to assess the effects of parameter uncertainty on the water quality model simulations and its influence on the allowable pollutant load calculation in the TMDL program. Miyun Reservoir, which is the most important surface drinking water source for Beijing, suffers from eutrophication and was selected as a case study. The relations between pollutant loads and water quality indicators are obtained through a graphical method in the simulation platform. Ranges of allowable pollutant loads were obtained according to the results of parameter uncertainty analysis, i.e. Total Organic Carbon (TOC): 581.5–1030.6 t·yr{sup −1}; Total Phosphorus (TP): 23.3–31.0 t·yr{sup −1}; and Total Nitrogen (TN): 480–1918.0 t·yr{sup −1}. The wide ranges of allowable pollutant loads reveal the importance of parameter uncertainty analysis in a TMDL program for allowable pollutant load calculation and margin of safety (MOS

  9. Can the Responses of Photosynthesis and Stomatal Conductance to Water and Nitrogen Stress Combinations Be Modeled Using a Single Set of Parameters?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ningyi; Li, Gang; Yu, Shanxiang; An, Dongsheng; Sun, Qian; Luo, Weihong; Yin, Xinyou

    2017-01-01

    Accurately predicting photosynthesis in response to water and nitrogen stress is the first step toward predicting crop growth, yield and many quality traits under fluctuating environmental conditions. While mechanistic models are capable of predicting photosynthesis under fluctuating environmental conditions, simplifying the parameterization procedure is important toward a wide range of model applications. In this study, the biochemical photosynthesis model of Farquhar, von Caemmerer and Berry (the FvCB model) and the stomatal conductance model of Ball, Woodrow and Berry which was revised by Leuning and Yin (the BWB-Leuning-Yin model) were parameterized for Lilium (L. auratum × speciosum “Sorbonne”) grown under different water and nitrogen conditions. Linear relationships were found between biochemical parameters of the FvCB model and leaf nitrogen content per unit leaf area (Na), and between mesophyll conductance and Na under different water and nitrogen conditions. By incorporating these Na-dependent linear relationships, the FvCB model was able to predict the net photosynthetic rate (An) in response to all water and nitrogen conditions. In contrast, stomatal conductance (gs) can be accurately predicted if parameters in the BWB-Leuning-Yin model were adjusted specifically to water conditions; otherwise gs was underestimated by 9% under well-watered conditions and was overestimated by 13% under water-deficit conditions. However, the 13% overestimation of gs under water-deficit conditions led to only 9% overestimation of An by the coupled FvCB and BWB-Leuning-Yin model whereas the 9% underestimation of gs under well-watered conditions affected little the prediction of An. Our results indicate that to accurately predict An and gs under different water and nitrogen conditions, only a few parameters in the BWB-Leuning-Yin model need to be adjusted according to water conditions whereas all other parameters are either conservative or can be adjusted according to

  10. A three dimensional two-phase debris flow model: Reduction to one free model parameter by linking rheology to grain size distribution and water content

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Boetticher, Albrecht; McArdell, Brian; Rickenmann, Dieter; Hübl, Johannes; Scheidl, Christian

    2014-05-01

    Attempts to model debris flow material either as a granular or as a viscous matter can not account for the wide range of debris flow processes, leading to the development of two-phase models with one phase accounting for the fluid and the other for the grains. Within this group of models, depth-averaged approaches are wide-spread, but since the rheology of true material is sensitive to pressure and shear gradient, three dimensional simulations are necessary to predict flows in complex geometries. Phase interaction can be modelled by solving the Navier-Stokes equation system for each phase and linking the phases with drag force models. However, this is a numerically expensive way that introduces a number of free parameters because too little is known about drag of non-spherical grains in non-Newtonian fluids. The approach proposed here solves one phase-averaged Navier-stokes equation system by applying the Volume of Fluid method, while still allowing to account for the sensitivity of the local rheology to pressure and shear in dependency to phase concentrations. One phase with a Herschel-Bulkley rheology represents the interstitial fluid and can mix with a second phase with the Coulomb-viscoplastic rheology of Pudasaini (Birte et al. 2013) that represents the gravel. A third phase is kept separate and represents the air. This setup allows modelling key properties of debris flow processes like run out or impact in high detail. By linking the Herschel Bulkley parameters to water content, clay mineral proportion and grain size distribution (Kaitna et al. 2007, Yu et al. 2013), and the parameters of the Coulomb-viscoplastic rheology to the angle of repose of the gravel, a reduction to one free model parameter was achieved. The resulting model is tested with laboratory experiments for its capability to reproduce the sensitivity of debris flow material to water content and channel curvature. Existing large scale flume experiments are used to corroborate the model and

  11. Modeling the impact of drought on canopy carbon and water fluxes for a subtropical evergreen coniferous plantation in southern China through parameter optimization using an ensemble Kalman filter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Ju

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Soil and atmospheric water deficits have significant influences on CO2 and energy exchanges between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems. Model parameterization significantly affects the ability of a model to simulate carbon, water, and energy fluxes. In this study, an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF and observations of gross primary productivity (GPP and latent heat (LE fluxes were used to optimize model parameters significantly affecting the calculation of these fluxes for a subtropical coniferous plantation in southeastern China. The optimized parameters include the maximum carboxylation rate (Vcmax, the slope in the modified Ball-Berry model (M and the coefficient determining the sensitivity of stomatal conductance to atmospheric water vapor deficit (D0. Optimized Vcmax and M showed larger variations than D0. Seasonal variations of Vcmax and M were more pronounced than the variations between the two years. Vcmax and M were associated with soil water content (SWC. During dry periods, SWC at the 20 cm depth explained 61% and 64% of variations of Vcmax and M, respectively. EnKF parameter optimization improved the simulations of GPP, LE and SH, mainly during dry periods. After parameter optimization using EnKF, the variations of GPP, LE and SH explained by the model increased by 1% to 4% at half-hourly steps and by 3% to 5% at daily time steps. Further efforts are needed to differentiate the real causes of parameter variations and improve the ability of models to describe the change of stomatal conductance with net photosynthesis rate and the sensitivity of photosynthesis capacity to soil water stress under different environmental conditions.

  12. A Bayesian approach for evaluation of the effect of water quality model parameter uncertainty on TMDLs: A case study of Miyun Reservoir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Shidong; Jia, Haifeng; Xu, Changqing; Xu, Te; Melching, Charles

    2016-08-01

    Facing increasingly serious water pollution, the Chinese government is changing the environmental management strategy from solely pollutant concentration control to a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) program, and water quality models are increasingly being applied to determine the allowable pollutant load in the TMDL. Despite the frequent use of models, few studies have focused on how parameter uncertainty in water quality models affect the allowable pollutant loads in the TMDL program, particularly for complicated and high-dimension water quality models. Uncertainty analysis for such models is limited by time-consuming simulation and high-dimensionality and nonlinearity in parameter spaces. In this study, an allowable pollutant load calculation platform was established using the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC), which is a widely applied hydrodynamic-water quality model. A Bayesian approach, i.e. the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm, which is a high-efficiency, multi-chain Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, was applied to assess the effects of parameter uncertainty on the water quality model simulations and its influence on the allowable pollutant load calculation in the TMDL program. Miyun Reservoir, which is the most important surface drinking water source for Beijing, suffers from eutrophication and was selected as a case study. The relations between pollutant loads and water quality indicators are obtained through a graphical method in the simulation platform. Ranges of allowable pollutant loads were obtained according to the results of parameter uncertainty analysis, i.e. Total Organic Carbon (TOC): 581.5-1030.6t·yr(-1); Total Phosphorus (TP): 23.3-31.0t·yr(-1); and Total Nitrogen (TN): 480-1918.0t·yr(-1). The wide ranges of allowable pollutant loads reveal the importance of parameter uncertainty analysis in a TMDL program for allowable pollutant load calculation and margin of safety (MOS) determination. The sources

  13. Water Environmental Capacity Analysis of Taihu Lake and Parameter Estimation Based on the Integration of the Inverse Method and Bayesian Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ranran Li

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available An integrated approach using the inverse method and Bayesian approach, combined with a lake eutrophication water quality model, was developed for parameter estimation and water environmental capacity (WEC analysis. The model was used to support load reduction and effective water quality management in the Taihu Lake system in eastern China. Water quality was surveyed yearly from 1987 to 2010. Total nitrogen (TN and total phosphorus (TP were selected as water quality model variables. Decay rates of TN and TP were estimated using the proposed approach. WECs of TN and TP in 2011 were determined based on the estimated decay rates. Results showed that the historical loading was beyond the WEC, thus, reduction of nitrogen and phosphorus input is necessary to meet water quality goals. Then WEC and allowable discharge capacity (ADC in 2015 and 2020 were predicted. The reduction ratios of ADC during these years were also provided. All of these enable decision makers to assess the influence of each loading and visualize potential load reductions under different water quality goals, and then to formulate a reasonable water quality management strategy.

  14. Water Environmental Capacity Analysis of Taihu Lake and Parameter Estimation Based on the Integration of the Inverse Method and Bayesian Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ranran; Zou, Zhihong

    2015-09-29

    An integrated approach using the inverse method and Bayesian approach, combined with a lake eutrophication water quality model, was developed for parameter estimation and water environmental capacity (WEC) analysis. The model was used to support load reduction and effective water quality management in the Taihu Lake system in eastern China. Water quality was surveyed yearly from 1987 to 2010. Total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) were selected as water quality model variables. Decay rates of TN and TP were estimated using the proposed approach. WECs of TN and TP in 2011 were determined based on the estimated decay rates. Results showed that the historical loading was beyond the WEC, thus, reduction of nitrogen and phosphorus input is necessary to meet water quality goals. Then WEC and allowable discharge capacity (ADC) in 2015 and 2020 were predicted. The reduction ratios of ADC during these years were also provided. All of these enable decision makers to assess the influence of each loading and visualize potential load reductions under different water quality goals, and then to formulate a reasonable water quality management strategy.

  15. CORRELATION STUDY AMONG WATER QUALITY PARAMETERS ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2015-09-01

    Sep 1, 2015 ... Correlation matrix of Valsad district suggests that EC of groundwater is found to be significantly correlated with eight out of seventeen water quality parameters studied. It may be suggested that the quality of Valsad district can be checked very effectively by controlling EC of water. Keywords: Ground Water ...

  16. Assessing the Importance of Incorporating Spatial and Temporal Variability of Soil and Plant Parameters into Local Water Balance Models for Precision Agriculture: Investigations within a California Vineyard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubbard, S.; Pierce, L.; Grote, K.; Rubin, Y.

    2003-12-01

    Due Due to the high cash crop nature of premium winegrapes, recent research has focused on developing a better understanding of the factors that influence winegrape spatial and temporal variability. Precision grapevine irrigation schemes require consideration of the factors that regulate vineyard water use such as (1) plant parameters, (2) climatic conditions, and (3) water availability in the soil as a function of soil texture. The inability to sample soil and plant parameters accurately, at a dense enough resolution, and over large enough areas has limited previous investigations focused on understanding the influences of soil water and vegetation on water balance at the local field scale. We have acquired several novel field data sets to describe the small scale (decimeters to a hundred meters) spatial variability of soil and plant parameters within a 4 acre field study site at the Robert Mondavi Winery in Napa County, California. At this site, we investigated the potential of ground penetrating radar data (GPR) for providing estimates of near surface water content. Calibration of grids of 900 MHz GPR groundwave data with conventional soil moisture measurements revealed that the GPR volumetric water content estimation approach was valid to within 1 percent accuracy, and that the data grids provided unparalleled density of soil water content over the field site as a function of season. High-resolution airborne multispectral remote sensing data was also collected at the study site, which was converted to normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and correlated to leaf area index (LAI) using plant-based measurements within a parallel study. Meteorological information was available from a weather station of the California Irrigation management Information System, located less than a mile from our study area. The measurements were used within a 2-D Vineyard Soil Irrigation Model (VSIM), which can incorporate the spatially variable, high-resolution soil and plant

  17. Thermal properties and unfrozen water content of frozen volcanic ash as a modelling input parameters in mountainous volcanic areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuznetsova, E.

    2016-12-01

    Volcanic eruptions are one of the major causes of the burial of ice and snow in volcanic areas. This has been demonstrated on volcanoes, e.g. in Iceland, Russia, USA and Chile, where the combination of a permafrost-favorable climate and a thin layer of tephra is sufficient to reduce the sub-tephra layer snow ablation substantially, even to zero, causing ground ice formation and permafrost aggradation. Many numerical models that have been used to investigate and predict the evolution of cold regions as the result of climatic changes are lacking the accurate data of the thermal properties —thermal conductivity, heat capacity, thermal diffusivity—of soils or debris layers involved. The angular shape of the fragments that make up ash and scoria makes it inappropriate to apply existing models to estimate bulk thermal conductivity. The lack of experimental data on the thermal conductivity of volcanic deposits will hinder the development of realistic models. The decreasing thermal conductivity of volcanic ash in the frozen state is associated with the development and presence of unfrozen water films that may have a direct mechanical impact on the movement or slippage between ice and particle, and thus, change the stress transfer. This becomes particularly significant during periods of climate change when enhanced temperatures and associated melting could weaken polythermal glaciers and affect areas with warm and discontinuous permafrost, and induce ice or land movements, perhaps on a catastrophic scale. In the presentation, we will summarize existing data regarding: (i) the thermal properties and unfrozen water content in frozen volcanic ash and cinder, (ii) the effects of cold temperatures on weathering processes of volcanic glass, (iii) the relationship between the mineralogy of frozen volcanic deposits and their thermal properties —and then discusses their significance in relation to the numerical modelling of glaciers and permafrost's thermal behavior.

  18. Linking Item Response Model Parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Linden, Wim J; Barrett, Michelle D

    2016-09-01

    With a few exceptions, the problem of linking item response model parameters from different item calibrations has been conceptualized as an instance of the problem of test equating scores on different test forms. This paper argues, however, that the use of item response models does not require any test score equating. Instead, it involves the necessity of parameter linking due to a fundamental problem inherent in the formal nature of these models-their general lack of identifiability. More specifically, item response model parameters need to be linked to adjust for the different effects of the identifiability restrictions used in separate item calibrations. Our main theorems characterize the formal nature of these linking functions for monotone, continuous response models, derive their specific shapes for different parameterizations of the 3PL model, and show how to identify them from the parameter values of the common items or persons in different linking designs.

  19. A parameter optimization tool for evaluating the physical consistency of the plot-scale water budget of the integrated eco-hydrological model GEOtop in complex terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertoldi, Giacomo; Cordano, Emanuele; Brenner, Johannes; Senoner, Samuel; Della Chiesa, Stefano; Niedrist, Georg

    2017-04-01

    In mountain regions, the plot- and catchment-scale water and energy budgets are controlled by a complex interplay of different abiotic (i.e. topography, geology, climate) and biotic (i.e. vegetation, land management) controlling factors. When integrated, physically-based eco-hydrological models are used in mountain areas, there are a large number of parameters, topographic and boundary conditions that need to be chosen. However, data on soil and land-cover properties are relatively scarce and do not reflect the strong variability at the local scale. For this reason, tools for uncertainty quantification and optimal parameters identification are essential not only to improve model performances, but also to identify most relevant parameters to be measured in the field and to evaluate the impact of different assumptions for topographic and boundary conditions (surface, lateral and subsurface water and energy fluxes), which are usually unknown. In this contribution, we present the results of a sensitivity analysis exercise for a set of 20 experimental stations located in the Italian Alps, representative of different conditions in terms of topography (elevation, slope, aspect), land use (pastures, meadows, and apple orchards), soil type and groundwater influence. Besides micrometeorological parameters, each station provides soil water content at different depths, and in three stations (one for each land cover) eddy covariance fluxes. The aims of this work are: (I) To present an approach for improving calibration of plot-scale soil moisture and evapotranspiration (ET). (II) To identify the most sensitive parameters and relevant factors controlling temporal and spatial differences among sites. (III) Identify possible model structural deficiencies or uncertainties in boundary conditions. Simulations have been performed with the GEOtop 2.0 model, which is a physically-based, fully distributed integrated eco-hydrological model that has been specifically designed for mountain

  20. Prediction of harmful water quality parameters combining weather, air quality and ecosystem models with in situ measurement

    Science.gov (United States)

    The ability to predict water quality in lakes is important since lakes are sources of water for agriculture, drinking, and recreational uses. Lakes are also home to a dynamic ecosystem of lacustrine wetlands and deep waters. They are sensitive to pH changes and are dependent on d...

  1. Effects of ring-porous and diffuse-porous stem wood anatomy on the hydraulic parameters used in a water flow and storage model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steppe, Kathy; Lemeur, Raoul

    2007-01-01

    Calibration of a recently developed water flow and storage model based on experimental data for a young diffuse-porous beech tree (Fagus sylvatica L.) and a young ring-porous oak tree (Quercus robur L.) revealed that differences in stem wood anatomy between species strongly affect the calibrated values of the hydraulic model parameters. The hydraulic capacitance (C) of the stem storage tissue was higher in oak than in beech (939.8 versus 212.3 mg MPa(-1)). Model simulation of the elastic modulus (epsilon) revealed that this difference was linked to the higher elasticity of the stem storage tissue of oak compared with beech. Furthermore, the hydraulic resistance (R (x)) of beech was about twice that of oak (0.1829 versus 0.1072 MPa s mg(-1)). To determine the physiological meaning of the R (x) parameter identified by model calibration, we analyzed the stem wood anatomy of the beech and oak trees. Calculation of stem specific hydraulic conductivity (k (s)) of beech and oak with the Hagen-Poiseuille equation confirmed the differences in R (x) predicted by the model. The contributions of different vessel diameter classes to the total hydraulic conductivity of the xylem were calculated. As expected, the few big vessels contributed much more to total conductivity than the many small vessels. Compared with beech, the larger vessels of oak resulted in a higher k (s) (10.66 versus 4.90 kg m(-1) s(-1) MPa(-1)). The calculated ratio of k (s) of oak to beech was 2, confirming the R (x) ratio obtained by model calibration. Thus, validation of the R (x) parameter of the model led to identification of its physiological meaning.

  2. A review of applications of satellite SAR, optical, altimetry and DEM data for surface water modelling, mapping and parameter estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Musa, Z.N.; Popescu, I; Mynett, A.E.

    2015-01-01

    Hydrological data collection requires deployment of physical infrastructure like rain gauges, water level gauges, as well as use of expensive equipment like echo sounders. Many countries around the world have recorded a decrease in deployment of physical infrastructure for hydrological

  3. Seasonal variability of the parameters of the Ball-Berry model of stomatal conductance in maize (Zea mays L.) and sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) under well-watered and water-stressed conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miner, Grace L; Bauerle, William L

    2017-09-01

    The Ball-Berry (BB) model of stomatal conductance (g s ) is frequently coupled with a model of assimilation to estimate water and carbon exchanges in plant canopies. The empirical slope (m) and 'residual' g s (g 0 ) parameters of the BB model influence transpiration estimates, but the time-intensive nature of measurement limits species-specific data on seasonal and stress responses. We measured m and g 0 seasonally and under different water availability for maize and sunflower. The statistical method used to estimate parameters impacted values nominally when inter-plant variability was low, but had substantial impact with larger inter-plant variability. Values for maize (m = 4.53 ± 0.65; g 0  = 0.017 ± 0.016 mol m -2 s -1 ) were 40% higher than other published values. In maize, we found no seasonal changes in m or g 0 , supporting the use of constant seasonal values, but water stress reduced both parameters. In sunflower, inter-plant variability of m and g 0 was large (m = 8.84 ± 3.77; g 0  = 0.354 ± 0.226 mol m -2 s -1 ), presenting a challenge to clear interpretation of seasonal and water stress responses - m values were stable seasonally, even as g 0 values trended downward, and m values trended downward with water stress while g 0 values declined substantially. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Migration of radionuclides with ground water: a discussion of the relevance of the input parameters used in model calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jensen, B.S.

    1982-01-01

    It is probably obvious to all, that establishing the scientific basis of geological waste disposal by going deeper and deeper in detail, may fill out the working hours of hundreds of scientists for hundreds of years. Such an endeavor is, however, impossible to attain, and we are forced to define some criteria telling us and others when knowledge and insight is sufficient. In thepresent case of geological disposal one need to be able to predict migration behavior of a series of radionuclides under diverse conditions to ascertain that unacceptable transfer to the biosphere never occurs. We have already collected a huge amount of data concerning migration phenomena, some very useful, oter less so, but we still need investigatoins departing from the simple ideal concepts, which most often have provided modellers with input data to their calculations. I therefore advocate that basic research is pursued to the point where it is possible to put limits on the effect of the lesser known factors on the migration behavior of radionuclides. When such limits have been established, it will be possible to make calculations on the worst cases, which may also occur. Although I personally believe, that these extra investigations will prove additional safety in geological disposal, this fact will convince nobody, only experimental facts will do

  5. Modeling Surface Water Dynamics in the Amazon Basin Using Mosart-Inundation-v1.0: Impacts of Geomorphological Parameters and River Flow Representation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Xiangyu; Li, Hong-Yi; Leung, Ruby; Tesfa, Teklu K.; Getirana, Augusto; Papa, Fabrice; Hess, Laura L.

    2017-01-01

    Surface water dynamics play an important role in water, energy and carbon cycles of the Amazon Basin. A macro-scale inundation scheme was integrated with a surface-water transport model and the extended model was applied in this vast basin. We addressed the challenges of improving basin-wide geomorphological parameters and river flow representation for 15 large-scale applications. Vegetation-caused biases embedded in the HydroSHEDS DEM data were alleviated by using a vegetation height map of about 1-km resolution and a land cover dataset of about 90-m resolution. The average elevation deduction from the DEM correction was about 13.2 m for the entire basin. Basin-wide empirical formulae for channel cross-sectional geometry were adjusted based on local information for the major portion of the basin, which could significantly reduce the cross-sectional area for the channels of some subregions. The Manning roughness coefficient of the channel 20 varied with the channel depth to reflect the general rule that the relative importance of riverbed resistance in river flow declined with the increase of river size. The entire basin was discretized into 5395 subbasins (with an average area of 1091.7 km2), which were used as computation units. The model was driven by runoff estimates of 14 years (1994 2007) generated by the ISBA land surface model. The simulated results were evaluated against in situ streamflow records, and remotely sensed Envisat altimetry data and GIEMS inundation data. The hydrographs were reproduced fairly well for the majority of 25 13 major stream gauges. For the 11 subbasins containing or close to 11 of the 13 gauges, the timing of river stage fluctuations was captured; for most of the 11 subbasins, the magnitude of river stage fluctuations was represented well. The inundation estimates were comparable to the GIEMS observations. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that refining floodplain topography, channel morphology and Manning roughness coefficients

  6. Field-scale water flow and solute transport : SWAP model concepts, parameter estimation and case studies = [Waterstroming en transport van opgeloste stoffen op veldschaal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dam, van J.C.

    2000-01-01

    Water flow and solute transport in top soils are important elements in many environmental studies. The agro- and ecohydrological model SWAP (Soil-Water-Plant-Atmosphere) has been developed to simulate simultaneously water flow, solute transport, heat flow and crop growth at field scale

  7. Aerosol water parameterization: a single parameter framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metzger, S.; Steil, B.; Abdelkader, M.; Klingmüller, K.; Xu, L.; Penner, J. E.; Fountoukis, C.; Nenes, A.; Lelieveld, J.

    2015-11-01

    We introduce a framework to efficiently parameterize the aerosol water uptake for mixtures of semi-volatile and non-volatile compounds, based on the coefficient, νi. This solute specific coefficient was introduced in Metzger et al. (2012) to accurately parameterize the single solution hygroscopic growth, considering the Kelvin effect - accounting for the water uptake of concentrated nanometer sized particles up to dilute solutions, i.e., from the compounds relative humidity of deliquescence (RHD) up to supersaturation (Köhler-theory). Here we extend the νi-parameterization from single to mixed solutions. We evaluate our framework at various levels of complexity, by considering the full gas-liquid-solid partitioning for a comprehensive comparison with reference calculations using the E-AIM, EQUISOLV II, ISORROPIA II models as well as textbook examples. We apply our parameterization in EQSAM4clim, the EQuilibrium Simplified Aerosol Model V4 for climate simulations, implemented in a box model and in the global chemistry-climate model EMAC. Our results show: (i) that the νi-approach enables to analytically solve the entire gas-liquid-solid partitioning and the mixed solution water uptake with sufficient accuracy, (ii) that, e.g., pure ammonium nitrate and mixed ammonium nitrate - ammonium sulfate mixtures can be solved with a simple method, and (iii) that the aerosol optical depth (AOD) simulations are in close agreement with remote sensing observations for the year 2005. Long-term evaluation of the EMAC results based on EQSAM4clim and ISORROPIA II will be presented separately.

  8. Can the responses of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance to water and nitrogen stress combinations be modeled using a single set of parameters?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhang, Ningyi; Li, Gang; Yu, Shanxiang; An, Dongsheng; Sun, Qian; Luo, Weihong; Yin, Xinyou

    2017-01-01

    Accurately predicting photosynthesis in response to water and nitrogen stress is the first step toward predicting crop growth, yield and many quality traits under fluctuating environmental conditions. While mechanistic models are capable of predicting photosynthesis under fluctuating environmental

  9. Development Smart Water Aquaponics Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghe Adrian ZUGRAVU

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The present paper contributes to the modeling aquaculture. The paper main objectives are to identify an analysis smart water aquaponics. The purpose is to add more value to end aquaponics products. Aquaculture production depends on physical, chemical and biological qualities of pond water to a greater extent. The successful pond management requires an understanding of water quality. Intensification of pond makes the water quality undesirable with a number of water quality parameters. The objective of this model is to test and predicts plant and fish growth and net ammonium and nitrate concentrations in water in an aquaponic system. This is done by comparing the model outputs with measurements under controlled conditions in order to assess the accuracy of the tool to simulate nutrient concentrations in water and fish and plant biomass production of the system.

  10. Assessment of the water quality parameters in relation to fish ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Physicochemical indices of water body changed seasonally and this necessitated an investigation to assess the water quality parameters of Osinmo reservoir in relation to its fish species. The water quality parameters were measured using standard methods. Results obtained show that the reservoir is alkaline in nature with ...

  11. [Spectral characteristics analysis and remote sensing inversion of water quality parameters in Han Shiqiao wetland].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Wei-Jing; Li, Shu-Min; Li, Hong; Sun, Dan-Feng; Zhou, Lian-Di

    2010-03-01

    The research object of the present paper is the water quality of Han Shiqiao wetland water. Water spectrum and quality parameters were measured on the site and in the lab. The authors simulated the relationships between water quality parameters and the best bands or combination, and built the multiple linear regression equation to obtain characteristic spectrum of the key water quality parameters. Besides, several key issues involved in applying ASTER satellite imagery to water quality include atmospheric correction, discussing methods for ASTER data bands analysis, and choosing the best bands and band combination. Results indicated that although the simulation model is not universal, the analysis of spectral characteristics based on ground spectrometer could provide foundations for the choice of remote sensing characteristics bands. The band ratio of water quality parameters simulated from ASTER spectral characteristics moves to relatively long-wave band. Finally, based on the analysis of ASTER remote sensing characteristics bands, the authors built water quality parameters regression model. The models for water quality parameters were recommended, and the accuracies of these models were analyzed. Making use of regression model, we executed spatial distribution map of water quality parameters to achieve wetland water monitoring with remote sensing in terms of variation in space and with time.

  12. ASSESSMENT OF WATER QUALITY PARAMETERS OF THE TASHLYK COOLING POOL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamara V. Dudar

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available  Data on hydrochemical monitoring parameters and water quality for the South-Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant cooling pool are considered in the paper. Changes in the Tashlyk cooling pool water physical and chemical parameters under influence of the South-Ukrainian Power Complex are analyzed. It was shown that values of some parameters exceed limited acceptable concentrations for water reservoir for fish economy.

  13. Quantitative Determination of Spring Water Quality Parameters via Electronic Tongue

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noèlia Carbó

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The use of a voltammetric electronic tongue for the quantitative analysis of quality parameters in spring water is proposed here. The electronic voltammetric tongue consisted of a set of four noble electrodes (iridium, rhodium, platinum, and gold housed inside a stainless steel cylinder. These noble metals have a high durability and are not demanding for maintenance, features required for the development of future automated equipment. A pulse voltammetry study was conducted in 83 spring water samples to determine concentrations of nitrate (range: 6.9–115 mg/L, sulfate (32–472 mg/L, fluoride (0.08–0.26 mg/L, chloride (17–190 mg/L, and sodium (11–94 mg/L as well as pH (7.3–7.8. These parameters were also determined by routine analytical methods in spring water samples. A partial least squares (PLS analysis was run to obtain a model to predict these parameter. Orthogonal signal correction (OSC was applied in the preprocessing step. Calibration (67% and validation (33% sets were selected randomly. The electronic tongue showed good predictive power to determine the concentrations of nitrate, sulfate, chloride, and sodium as well as pH and displayed a lower R2 and slope in the validation set for fluoride. Nitrate and fluoride concentrations were estimated with errors lower than 15%, whereas chloride, sulfate, and sodium concentrations as well as pH were estimated with errors below 10%.

  14. Robust estimation of hydrological model parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bárdossy

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available The estimation of hydrological model parameters is a challenging task. With increasing capacity of computational power several complex optimization algorithms have emerged, but none of the algorithms gives a unique and very best parameter vector. The parameters of fitted hydrological models depend upon the input data. The quality of input data cannot be assured as there may be measurement errors for both input and state variables. In this study a methodology has been developed to find a set of robust parameter vectors for a hydrological model. To see the effect of observational error on parameters, stochastically generated synthetic measurement errors were applied to observed discharge and temperature data. With this modified data, the model was calibrated and the effect of measurement errors on parameters was analysed. It was found that the measurement errors have a significant effect on the best performing parameter vector. The erroneous data led to very different optimal parameter vectors. To overcome this problem and to find a set of robust parameter vectors, a geometrical approach based on Tukey's half space depth was used. The depth of the set of N randomly generated parameters was calculated with respect to the set with the best model performance (Nash-Sutclife efficiency was used for this study for each parameter vector. Based on the depth of parameter vectors, one can find a set of robust parameter vectors. The results show that the parameters chosen according to the above criteria have low sensitivity and perform well when transfered to a different time period. The method is demonstrated on the upper Neckar catchment in Germany. The conceptual HBV model was used for this study.

  15. Model parameter updating using Bayesian networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Treml, C. A. (Christine A.); Ross, Timothy J.

    2004-01-01

    This paper outlines a model parameter updating technique for a new method of model validation using a modified model reference adaptive control (MRAC) framework with Bayesian Networks (BNs). The model parameter updating within this method is generic in the sense that the model/simulation to be validated is treated as a black box. It must have updateable parameters to which its outputs are sensitive, and those outputs must have metrics that can be compared to that of the model reference, i.e., experimental data. Furthermore, no assumptions are made about the statistics of the model parameter uncertainty, only upper and lower bounds need to be specified. This method is designed for situations where a model is not intended to predict a complete point-by-point time domain description of the item/system behavior; rather, there are specific points, features, or events of interest that need to be predicted. These specific points are compared to the model reference derived from actual experimental data. The logic for updating the model parameters to match the model reference is formed via a BN. The nodes of this BN consist of updateable model input parameters and the specific output values or features of interest. Each time the model is executed, the input/output pairs are used to adapt the conditional probabilities of the BN. Each iteration further refines the inferred model parameters to produce the desired model output. After parameter updating is complete and model inputs are inferred, reliabilities for the model output are supplied. Finally, this method is applied to a simulation of a resonance control cooling system for a prototype coupled cavity linac. The results are compared to experimental data.

  16. On parameter estimation in deformable models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fisker, Rune; Carstensen, Jens Michael

    1998-01-01

    Deformable templates have been intensively studied in image analysis through the last decade, but despite its significance the estimation of model parameters has received little attention. We present a method for supervised and unsupervised model parameter estimation using a general Bayesian form...

  17. Parameter identification in the logistic STAR model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ekner, Line Elvstrøm; Nejstgaard, Emil

    We propose a new and simple parametrization of the so-called speed of transition parameter of the logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) model. The new parametrization highlights that a consequence of the well-known identification problem of the speed of transition parameter is that th......We propose a new and simple parametrization of the so-called speed of transition parameter of the logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) model. The new parametrization highlights that a consequence of the well-known identification problem of the speed of transition parameter...

  18. Influence of Geometric Parameters of the Hydrocyclone and Sand Concentration on the Water/Sand/Heavy-Oil Separation Process: Modeling and Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F Farias

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In the oil exploitation, produced fluids are composed of oil, gas, water and sand (depending on the reservoir location. The presence of sand in flow oil leads to several industrial problems for example: erosion and accumulation in valves and pipeline. Thus, it is necessary to stop production for manual cleaning of equipments and pipes. These facts have attracted attention of academic and industrial areas, enabling the appearing of new technologies or improvement of the water/oil/sand separation process. One equipment that has been used to promote phase separation is the hydrocyclone due to high performance of separation and required low cost to installation and maintenance. In this sense, the purpose of this work is to study numerically the effect of geometric parameters (vortex finder diameter of the hydrocyclone and sand concentration on the inlet fluid separation process. A numerical solution of the governing equations was obtained by the ANSYS CFX-11 commercial code. Results of the streamlines, pressure drop and separation efficiency on the hydrocyclone are presented and analyzed. It was observed that the particles concentration and geometry affect the separation efficiency of the hydrocyclone.

  19. Parameter Estimation of Partial Differential Equation Models

    KAUST Repository

    Xun, Xiaolei

    2013-09-01

    Partial differential equation (PDE) models are commonly used to model complex dynamic systems in applied sciences such as biology and finance. The forms of these PDE models are usually proposed by experts based on their prior knowledge and understanding of the dynamic system. Parameters in PDE models often have interesting scientific interpretations, but their values are often unknown and need to be estimated from the measurements of the dynamic system in the presence of measurement errors. Most PDEs used in practice have no analytic solutions, and can only be solved with numerical methods. Currently, methods for estimating PDE parameters require repeatedly solving PDEs numerically under thousands of candidate parameter values, and thus the computational load is high. In this article, we propose two methods to estimate parameters in PDE models: a parameter cascading method and a Bayesian approach. In both methods, the underlying dynamic process modeled with the PDE model is represented via basis function expansion. For the parameter cascading method, we develop two nested levels of optimization to estimate the PDE parameters. For the Bayesian method, we develop a joint model for data and the PDE and develop a novel hierarchical model allowing us to employ Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to make posterior inference. Simulation studies show that the Bayesian method and parameter cascading method are comparable, and both outperform other available methods in terms of estimation accuracy. The two methods are demonstrated by estimating parameters in a PDE model from long-range infrared light detection and ranging data. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. © 2013 American Statistical Association.

  20. Application of lumped-parameter models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, M.

    2006-12-15

    This technical report concerns the lumped-parameter models for a suction caisson with a ratio between skirt length and foundation diameter equal to 1/2, embedded into an viscoelastic soil. The models are presented for three different values of the shear modulus of the subsoil. Subsequently, the assembly of the dynamic stiffness matrix for the foundation is considered, and the solution for obtaining the steady state response, when using lumped-parameter models is given. (au)

  1. Modeling surface water dynamics in the Amazon Basin using MOSART-Inundation v1.0: impacts of geomorphological parameters and river flow representation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Xiangyu; Li, Hong-Yi; Leung, L. Ruby; Tesfa, Teklu K.; Getirana, Augusto; Papa, Fabrice; Hess, Laura L.

    2017-03-01

    In the Amazon Basin, floodplain inundation is a key component of surface water dynamics and plays an important role in water, energy and carbon cycles. The Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport (MOSART) was extended with a macroscale inundation scheme for representing floodplain inundation. The extended model, named MOSART-Inundation, was used to simulate surface hydrology of the entire Amazon Basin. Previous hydrologic modeling studies in the Amazon Basin identified and addressed a few challenges in simulating surface hydrology of this basin, including uncertainties of floodplain topography and channel geometry, and the representation of river flow in reaches with mild slopes. This study further addressed four aspects of these challenges. First, the spatial variability of vegetation-caused biases embedded in the HydroSHEDS digital elevation model (DEM) data was explicitly addressed. A vegetation height map of about 1 km resolution and a land cover dataset of about 90 m resolution were used in a DEM correction procedure that resulted in an average elevation reduction of 13.2 m for the entire basin and led to evident changes in the floodplain topography. Second, basin-wide empirical formulae for channel cross-sectional dimensions were refined for various subregions to improve the representation of spatial variability in channel geometry. Third, the channel Manning roughness coefficient was allowed to vary with the channel depth, as the effect of riverbed resistance on river flow generally declines with increasing river size. Lastly, backwater effects were accounted for to better represent river flow in mild-slope reaches. The model was evaluated against in situ streamflow records and remotely sensed Envisat altimetry data and Global Inundation Extent from Multi-Satellites (GIEMS) inundation data. In a sensitivity study, seven simulations were compared to evaluate the impacts of the five modeling aspects addressed in this study. The comparisons showed that

  2. WATER DIVERSION MODEL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J.B. Case

    1999-12-21

    The distribution of seepage in the proposed repository will be highly variable due in part to variations in the spatial distribution of percolations. The performance of the drip shield and the backfill system may divert the water flux around the waste packages to the invert. Diversion will occur along the drift surface, within the backfill, at the drip shield, and at the Waste Package (WP) surface, even after the drip shield and WP have been breached by corrosion. The purpose and objective of this Analysis and Modeling Report (AMR) are to develop a conceptual model and constitutive properties for bounding the volume and rate of seepage water that flows around the drip shield (CRWMS M&O 1999c). This analysis model is to be compatible with the selected repository conceptual design (Wilkins and Heath, 1999) and will be used to evaluate the performance of the Engineered Barrier System (EBS), and to provide input to the EBS Water Distribution and Removal Model. This model supports the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) postclosure performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (SR). This document characterizes the hydrological constitutive properties of the backfill and invert materials (Section 6.2) and a third material that represents a mixture of the two. These include the Overton Sand which is selected as a backfill (Section 5.2), crushed tuff which is selected as the invert (Section 5.1), and a combined material (Sections 5.9 and 5.10) which has retention and hydraulic conductivity properties intermediate to the selected materials for the backfill and the invert. The properties include the grain size distribution, the dry bulk density and porosity, the moisture retention, the intrinsic permeability, the relative permeability, and the material thermal properties. The van Genuchten relationships with curve fit parameters are used to define the basic retention relationship of moisture potential to volumetric moisture content, and the basic relationship of unsaturated

  3. WATER DIVERSION MODEL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    J.B. Case

    1999-01-01

    The distribution of seepage in the proposed repository will be highly variable due in part to variations in the spatial distribution of percolations. The performance of the drip shield and the backfill system may divert the water flux around the waste packages to the invert. Diversion will occur along the drift surface, within the backfill, at the drip shield, and at the Waste Package (WP) surface, even after the drip shield and WP have been breached by corrosion. The purpose and objective of this Analysis and Modeling Report (AMR) are to develop a conceptual model and constitutive properties for bounding the volume and rate of seepage water that flows around the drip shield (CRWMS MandO 1999c). This analysis model is to be compatible with the selected repository conceptual design (Wilkins and Heath, 1999) and will be used to evaluate the performance of the Engineered Barrier System (EBS), and to provide input to the EBS Water Distribution and Removal Model. This model supports the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) postclosure performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (SR). This document characterizes the hydrological constitutive properties of the backfill and invert materials (Section 6.2) and a third material that represents a mixture of the two. These include the Overton Sand which is selected as a backfill (Section 5.2), crushed tuff which is selected as the invert (Section 5.1), and a combined material (Sections 5.9 and 5.10) which has retention and hydraulic conductivity properties intermediate to the selected materials for the backfill and the invert. The properties include the grain size distribution, the dry bulk density and porosity, the moisture retention, the intrinsic permeability, the relative permeability, and the material thermal properties. The van Genuchten relationships with curve fit parameters are used to define the basic retention relationship of moisture potential to volumetric moisture content, and the basic relationship of

  4. Fuzzy Logic Water Quality Index and Importance of Water Quality Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raman Bai. V

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Determination of status of water quality of a river or any other water sources is highly indeterminate. It is necessary to have a competent model to predict the status of water quality and to advice for type of water treatment for meeting different demands. One such model (UNIQ2007 is developed as an application software in water quality engineering. The unit operates in a fuzzy logic mode including a fuzzification engine receiving a plurality of input variables on its input and being adapted to compute membership function parameters. A processor engine connected downstream of the fuzzification unit will produce fuzzy set, based on fuzzy variable viz. DO, BOD, COD, AN, SS and pH. It has a defuzzification unit operative to translate the inference results into a discrete crisp value of WQI. The UNIQ2007 contains a first memory device connected to the fuzzification unit and containing the set of membership functions, a secondary memory device connected to the defuzzification unit and containing the set of crisp value which appear in the THEN part of the fuzzy rules and an additional memory device connected to the defuzzification unit. More advantageously, UINQ2007 is constructed with control elements having dynamic fuzzy logic properties wherein target non-linearity can be input to result in a perfect evaluation of water quality. The development of the fuzzy model with one river system is explained in this paper. Further the model has been evaluated with the data from few rivers in Malaysia, India and Thailand. This water quality assessor probe can provide better quality index or identify the status of river with 90% perfection. Presently, WQI in most of the countries is referring to physic-chemical parameters only due to great efforts needed to quantify the biological parameters. This study ensures a better method to include pathogens into WQI due to superior capabilities of fuzzy logic in dealing with non-linear, complex and uncertain systems.

  5. CHAMP: Changepoint Detection Using Approximate Model Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    form (with independent emissions or otherwise), in which parameter estimates are available via means such as maximum likelihood fit, MCMC , or sample ...counterparts, including the ability to generate a full posterior distribution over changepoint locations and offering a natural way to incorporate prior... sample consensus method. Our modifications also remove a significant restriction on model definition when detecting parameter changes within a single

  6. Exploiting intrinsic fluctuations to identify model parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmer, Christoph; Sahle, Sven; Pahle, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    Parameterisation of kinetic models plays a central role in computational systems biology. Besides the lack of experimental data of high enough quality, some of the biggest challenges here are identification issues. Model parameters can be structurally non-identifiable because of functional relationships. Noise in measured data is usually considered to be a nuisance for parameter estimation. However, it turns out that intrinsic fluctuations in particle numbers can make parameters identifiable that were previously non-identifiable. The authors present a method to identify model parameters that are structurally non-identifiable in a deterministic framework. The method takes time course recordings of biochemical systems in steady state or transient state as input. Often a functional relationship between parameters presents itself by a one-dimensional manifold in parameter space containing parameter sets of optimal goodness. Although the system's behaviour cannot be distinguished on this manifold in a deterministic framework it might be distinguishable in a stochastic modelling framework. Their method exploits this by using an objective function that includes a measure for fluctuations in particle numbers. They show on three example models, immigration-death, gene expression and Epo-EpoReceptor interaction, that this resolves the non-identifiability even in the case of measurement noise with known amplitude. The method is applied to partially observed recordings of biochemical systems with measurement noise. It is simple to implement and it is usually very fast to compute. This optimisation can be realised in a classical or Bayesian fashion.

  7. Setting Parameters for Biological Models With ANIMO

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schivo, Stefano; Scholma, Jetse; Karperien, Hermanus Bernardus Johannes; Post, Janine Nicole; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Langerak, Romanus; André, Étienne; Frehse, Goran

    2014-01-01

    ANIMO (Analysis of Networks with Interactive MOdeling) is a software for modeling biological networks, such as e.g. signaling, metabolic or gene networks. An ANIMO model is essentially the sum of a network topology and a number of interaction parameters. The topology describes the interactions

  8. Parameters and error of a theoretical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeller, P.; Nix, J.R.; Swiatecki, W.

    1986-09-01

    We propose a definition for the error of a theoretical model of the type whose parameters are determined from adjustment to experimental data. By applying a standard statistical method, the maximum-likelihoodlmethod, we derive expressions for both the parameters of the theoretical model and its error. We investigate the derived equations by solving them for simulated experimental and theoretical quantities generated by use of random number generators. 2 refs., 4 tabs

  9. Application of lumped-parameter models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, Morten

    This technical report concerns the lumped-parameter models for a suction caisson with a ratio between skirt length and foundation diameter equal to 1/2, embedded into an viscoelastic soil. The models are presented for three different values of the shear modulus of the subsoil (section 1.1). Subse......This technical report concerns the lumped-parameter models for a suction caisson with a ratio between skirt length and foundation diameter equal to 1/2, embedded into an viscoelastic soil. The models are presented for three different values of the shear modulus of the subsoil (section 1...

  10. Setting Parameters for Biological Models With ANIMO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Schivo

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available ANIMO (Analysis of Networks with Interactive MOdeling is a software for modeling biological networks, such as e.g. signaling, metabolic or gene networks. An ANIMO model is essentially the sum of a network topology and a number of interaction parameters. The topology describes the interactions between biological entities in form of a graph, while the parameters determine the speed of occurrence of such interactions. When a mismatch is observed between the behavior of an ANIMO model and experimental data, we want to update the model so that it explains the new data. In general, the topology of a model can be expanded with new (known or hypothetical nodes, and enables it to match experimental data. However, the unrestrained addition of new parts to a model causes two problems: models can become too complex too fast, to the point of being intractable, and too many parts marked as "hypothetical" or "not known" make a model unrealistic. Even if changing the topology is normally the easier task, these problems push us to try a better parameter fit as a first step, and resort to modifying the model topology only as a last resource. In this paper we show the support added in ANIMO to ease the task of expanding the knowledge on biological networks, concentrating in particular on the parameter settings.

  11. Parameter estimation of variable-parameter nonlinear Muskingum model using excel solver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Ling; Zhou, Liwei

    2018-02-01

    Abstract . The Muskingum model is an effective flood routing technology in hydrology and water resources Engineering. With the development of optimization technology, more and more variable-parameter Muskingum models were presented to improve effectiveness of the Muskingum model in recent decades. A variable-parameter nonlinear Muskingum model (NVPNLMM) was proposed in this paper. According to the results of two real and frequently-used case studies by various models, the NVPNLMM could obtain better values of evaluation criteria, which are used to describe the superiority of the estimated outflows and compare the accuracies of flood routing using various models, and the optimal estimated outflows by the NVPNLMM were closer to the observed outflows than the ones by other models.

  12. Parameter Estimation for Thurstone Choice Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vojnovic, Milan [London School of Economics (United Kingdom); Yun, Seyoung [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-04-24

    We consider the estimation accuracy of individual strength parameters of a Thurstone choice model when each input observation consists of a choice of one item from a set of two or more items (so called top-1 lists). This model accommodates the well-known choice models such as the Luce choice model for comparison sets of two or more items and the Bradley-Terry model for pair comparisons. We provide a tight characterization of the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator. We also provide similar characterizations for parameter estimators defined by a rank-breaking method, which amounts to deducing one or more pair comparisons from a comparison of two or more items, assuming independence of these pair comparisons, and maximizing a likelihood function derived under these assumptions. We also consider a related binary classification problem where each individual parameter takes value from a set of two possible values and the goal is to correctly classify all items within a prescribed classification error. The results of this paper shed light on how the parameter estimation accuracy depends on given Thurstone choice model and the structure of comparison sets. In particular, we found that for unbiased input comparison sets of a given cardinality, when in expectation each comparison set of given cardinality occurs the same number of times, for a broad class of Thurstone choice models, the mean squared error decreases with the cardinality of comparison sets, but only marginally according to a diminishing returns relation. On the other hand, we found that there exist Thurstone choice models for which the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator can decrease much faster with the cardinality of comparison sets. We report empirical evaluation of some claims and key parameters revealed by theory using both synthetic and real-world input data from some popular sport competitions and online labor platforms.

  13. Modelling and parameter estimation of dynamic systems

    CERN Document Server

    Raol, JR; Singh, J

    2004-01-01

    Parameter estimation is the process of using observations from a system to develop mathematical models that adequately represent the system dynamics. The assumed model consists of a finite set of parameters, the values of which are calculated using estimation techniques. Most of the techniques that exist are based on least-square minimization of error between the model response and actual system response. However, with the proliferation of high speed digital computers, elegant and innovative techniques like filter error method, H-infinity and Artificial Neural Networks are finding more and mor

  14. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, C W [ed.

    1984-01-01

    This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base. (ACR)

  15. Consistent Stochastic Modelling of Meteocean Design Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Sterndorff, M. J.

    2000-01-01

    Consistent stochastic models of metocean design parameters and their directional dependencies are essential for reliability assessment of offshore structures. In this paper a stochastic model for the annual maximum values of the significant wave height, and the associated wind velocity, current...

  16. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, C.W.

    1984-01-01

    This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base

  17. Source term modelling parameters for Project-90

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, W.; Smith, G.; Worgan, K.; Hodgkinson, D.; Andersson, K.

    1992-04-01

    This document summarises the input parameters for the source term modelling within Project-90. In the first place, the parameters relate to the CALIBRE near-field code which was developed for the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate's (SKI) Project-90 reference repository safety assessment exercise. An attempt has been made to give best estimate values and, where appropriate, a range which is related to variations around base cases. It should be noted that the data sets contain amendments to those considered by KBS-3. In particular, a completely new set of inventory data has been incorporated. The information given here does not constitute a complete set of parameter values for all parts of the CALIBRE code. Rather, it gives the key parameter values which are used in the constituent models within CALIBRE and the associated studies. For example, the inventory data acts as an input to the calculation of the oxidant production rates, which influence the generation of a redox front. The same data is also an initial value data set for the radionuclide migration component of CALIBRE. Similarly, the geometrical parameters of the near-field are common to both sub-models. The principal common parameters are gathered here for ease of reference and avoidance of unnecessary duplication and transcription errors. (au)

  18. Modelling of intermittent microwave convective drying: parameter sensitivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Zhijun

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The reliability of the predictions of a mathematical model is a prerequisite to its utilization. A multiphase porous media model of intermittent microwave convective drying is developed based on the literature. The model considers the liquid water, gas and solid matrix inside of food. The model is simulated by COMSOL software. Its sensitivity parameter is analysed by changing the parameter values by ±20%, with the exception of several parameters. The sensitivity analysis of the process of the microwave power level shows that each parameter: ambient temperature, effective gas diffusivity, and evaporation rate constant, has significant effects on the process. However, the surface mass, heat transfer coefficient, relative and intrinsic permeability of the gas, and capillary diffusivity of water do not have a considerable effect. The evaporation rate constant has minimal parameter sensitivity with a ±20% value change, until it is changed 10-fold. In all results, the temperature and vapour pressure curves show the same trends as the moisture content curve. However, the water saturation at the medium surface and in the centre show different results. Vapour transfer is the major mass transfer phenomenon that affects the drying process.

  19. Modelling of intermittent microwave convective drying: parameter sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhijun; Qin, Wenchao; Shi, Bin; Gao, Jingxin; Zhang, Shiwei

    2017-06-01

    The reliability of the predictions of a mathematical model is a prerequisite to its utilization. A multiphase porous media model of intermittent microwave convective drying is developed based on the literature. The model considers the liquid water, gas and solid matrix inside of food. The model is simulated by COMSOL software. Its sensitivity parameter is analysed by changing the parameter values by ±20%, with the exception of several parameters. The sensitivity analysis of the process of the microwave power level shows that each parameter: ambient temperature, effective gas diffusivity, and evaporation rate constant, has significant effects on the process. However, the surface mass, heat transfer coefficient, relative and intrinsic permeability of the gas, and capillary diffusivity of water do not have a considerable effect. The evaporation rate constant has minimal parameter sensitivity with a ±20% value change, until it is changed 10-fold. In all results, the temperature and vapour pressure curves show the same trends as the moisture content curve. However, the water saturation at the medium surface and in the centre show different results. Vapour transfer is the major mass transfer phenomenon that affects the drying process.

  20. Effect of aeration on selected water quality parameters in freshwater ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Freshwater fish culture water was passed through the devices and analysed for Temperature, pH, Alkalinity and Dissolved oxygen (DO) in the morning, afternoon and evening. The percentage modification was used to measure the effect of aeration on the selected water quality parameters. Temperature modification ranged ...

  1. An updated Quantitative Water Air Sediment Interaction (QWASI) model for evaluating chemical fate and input parameter sensitivities in aquatic systems: application to D5 (decamethylcyclopentasiloxane) and PCB-180 in two lakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackay, Donald; Hughes, Lauren; Powell, David E; Kim, Jaeshin

    2014-09-01

    The QWASI fugacity mass balance model has been widely used since 1983 for both scientific and regulatory purposes to estimate the concentrations of organic chemicals in water and sediment, given an assumed rate of chemical emission, advective inflow in water or deposition from the atmosphere. It has become apparent that an updated version is required, especially to incorporate improved methods of obtaining input parameters such as partition coefficients. Accordingly, the model has been revised and it is now available in spreadsheet format. Changes to the model are described and the new version is applied to two chemicals, D5 (decamethylcyclopentasiloxane) and PCB-180, in two lakes, Lake Pepin (MN, USA) and Lake Ontario, showing the model's capability of illustrating both the chemical to chemical differences and lake to lake differences. Since there are now increased regulatory demands for rigorous sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, these aspects are discussed and two approaches are illustrated. It is concluded that the new QWASI water quality model can be of value for both evaluative and simulation purposes, thus providing a tool for obtaining an improved understanding of chemical mass balances in lakes, as a contribution to the assessment of fate and exposure and as a step towards the assessment of risk. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  2. Advances in Modelling, System Identification and Parameter ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    models determined from flight test data by using parameter estimation methods find extensive use in design/modification of flight control systems, high fidelity flight simulators and evaluation of handling qualitites of aircraft and rotorcraft. R K Mehra et al present new algorithms and results for flutter tests and adaptive notching ...

  3. A lumped parameter model of plasma focus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez, Jose H.; Florido, Pablo C.; Bruzzone, H.; Clausse, Alejandro

    1999-01-01

    A lumped parameter model to estimate neutron emission of a plasma focus (PF) device is developed. The dynamic of the current sheet is calculated using a snowplow model, and the neutron production with the thermal fusion cross section for a deuterium filling gas. The results were contrasted as a function of the filling pressure with experimental measurements of a 3.68 KJ Mather-type PF. (author)

  4. One parameter model potential for noble metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Idrees, M.; Khwaja, F.A.; Razmi, M.S.K.

    1981-08-01

    A phenomenological one parameter model potential which includes s-d hybridization and core-core exchange contributions is proposed for noble metals. A number of interesting properties like liquid metal resistivities, band gaps, thermoelectric powers and ion-ion interaction potentials are calculated for Cu, Ag and Au. The results obtained are in better agreement with experiment than the ones predicted by the other model potentials in the literature. (author)

  5. Physiological water model development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doty, Susan

    1993-01-01

    The water of the human body can be categorized as existing in two main compartments: intracellular water and extracellular water. The intracellular water consists of all the water within the cells and constitutes over half of the total body water. Since red blood cells are surrounded by plasma, and all other cells are surrounded by interstitial fluid, the intracellular compartment has been subdivided to represent these two cell types. The extracellular water, which includes all of the fluid outside of the cells, can be further subdivided into compartments which represent the interstitial fluid, circulating blood plasma, lymph, and transcellular water. The interstitial fluid surrounds cells outside of the vascular system whereas plasma is contained within the blood vessels. Avascular tissues such as dense connective tissue and cartilage contain interstitial water which slowly equilibrates with tracers used to determine extracellular fluid volume. For this reason, additional compartments are sometimes used to represent these avascular tissues. The average size of each compartment, in terms of percent body weight, has been determined for adult males and females. These compartments and the forces which cause flow between them are presented. The kidneys, a main compartment, receive about 25 percent of the cardiac output and filters out a fluid similar to plasma. The composition of this filtered fluid changes as it flows through the kidney tubules since compounds are continually being secreted and reabsorbed. Through this mechanism, the kidneys eliminate wastes while conserving body water, electrolytes, and metabolites. Since sodium accounts for over 90 percent of the cations in the extracellular fluid, and the number of cations is balanced by the number of anions, considering the renal handling sodium and water only should sufficiently describe the relationship between the plasma compartment and kidneys. A kidney function model is presented which has been adapted from a

  6. The use of tritiated water in evaluating animal production parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robertshaw, D.

    1988-01-01

    Tritiated water (TOH) provides a means of measuring a number of parameters of importance not only to the applied animal physiologist but to those involved in assessing animal productivity. For the examination of animal-environment interactions, TOH is an invaluable tool for assessing total body water, water turnover rate and hence water requirements of different types of animals kept under a variety of climatic and other conditions. It can also be useful for measuring water losses, e.g. through evaporation, and hence is a tool for assessing thermal stress. For animal productivity studies, TOH is useful for assessing such parameters as carcass composition, the intake of forages, supplements and milk. Each of these aspects is described as are the assumptions which have to be made when using TOH for the measurements concerned. (author). 11 refs, 1 tab

  7. Improving the realism of hydrologic model through multivariate parameter estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakovec, Oldrich; Kumar, Rohini; Attinger, Sabine; Samaniego, Luis

    2017-04-01

    Increased availability and quality of near real-time observations should improve understanding of predictive skills of hydrological models. Recent studies have shown the limited capability of river discharge data alone to adequately constrain different components of distributed model parameterizations. In this study, the GRACE satellite-based total water storage (TWS) anomaly is used to complement the discharge data with an aim to improve the fidelity of mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM) through multivariate parameter estimation. The study is conducted in 83 European basins covering a wide range of hydro-climatic regimes. The model parameterization complemented with the TWS anomalies leads to statistically significant improvements in (1) discharge simulations during low-flow period, and (2) evapotranspiration estimates which are evaluated against independent (FLUXNET) data. Overall, there is no significant deterioration in model performance for the discharge simulations when complemented by information from the TWS anomalies. However, considerable changes in the partitioning of precipitation into runoff components are noticed by in-/exclusion of TWS during the parameter estimation. A cross-validation test carried out to assess the transferability and robustness of the calibrated parameters to other locations further confirms the benefit of complementary TWS data. In particular, the evapotranspiration estimates show more robust performance when TWS data are incorporated during the parameter estimation, in comparison with the benchmark model constrained against discharge only. This study highlights the value for incorporating multiple data sources during parameter estimation to improve the overall realism of hydrologic model and its applications over large domains. Rakovec, O., Kumar, R., Attinger, S. and Samaniego, L. (2016): Improving the realism of hydrologic model functioning through multivariate parameter estimation. Water Resour. Res., 52, http://dx.doi.org/10

  8. Parameter optimization for surface flux transport models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitbread, T.; Yeates, A. R.; Muñoz-Jaramillo, A.; Petrie, G. J. D.

    2017-11-01

    Accurate prediction of solar activity calls for precise calibration of solar cycle models. Consequently we aim to find optimal parameters for models which describe the physical processes on the solar surface, which in turn act as proxies for what occurs in the interior and provide source terms for coronal models. We use a genetic algorithm to optimize surface flux transport models using National Solar Observatory (NSO) magnetogram data for Solar Cycle 23. This is applied to both a 1D model that inserts new magnetic flux in the form of idealized bipolar magnetic regions, and also to a 2D model that assimilates specific shapes of real active regions. The genetic algorithm searches for parameter sets (meridional flow speed and profile, supergranular diffusivity, initial magnetic field, and radial decay time) that produce the best fit between observed and simulated butterfly diagrams, weighted by a latitude-dependent error structure which reflects uncertainty in observations. Due to the easily adaptable nature of the 2D model, the optimization process is repeated for Cycles 21, 22, and 24 in order to analyse cycle-to-cycle variation of the optimal solution. We find that the ranges and optimal solutions for the various regimes are in reasonable agreement with results from the literature, both theoretical and observational. The optimal meridional flow profiles for each regime are almost entirely within observational bounds determined by magnetic feature tracking, with the 2D model being able to accommodate the mean observed profile more successfully. Differences between models appear to be important in deciding values for the diffusive and decay terms. In like fashion, differences in the behaviours of different solar cycles lead to contrasts in parameters defining the meridional flow and initial field strength.

  9. Parameter sensitivity and identifiability for a biogeochemical model of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Local sensitivity analyses and identifiable parameter subsets were used to describe numerical constraints of a hypoxia model for bottom waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico. The sensitivity of state variables differed considerably with parameter changes, although most variables ...

  10. Analisis Perbandingan Parameter Transformasi Antar Itrf Hasil Hitungan Kuadrat Terkecil Model Helmert 14-parameter Dengan Parameter Standar Iers

    OpenAIRE

    Fadly, Romi; Dewi, Citra

    2014-01-01

    This research aims to compare the 14 transformation parameters between ITRF from computation result using the Helmert 14-parameter models with IERS standard parameters. The transforma- tion parameters are calculated from the coordinates and velocities of ITRF05 to ITRF00 epoch 2000.00, and from ITRF08 to ITRF05 epoch 2005.00 for respectively transformation models. The transformation parameters are compared to the IERS standard parameters, then tested the signifi- cance of the d...

  11. Constant-parameter capture-recapture models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brownie, C.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.

    1986-01-01

    Jolly (1982, Biometrics 38, 301-321) presented modifications of the Jolly-Seber model for capture-recapture data, which assume constant survival and/or capture rates. Where appropriate, because of the reduced number of parameters, these models lead to more efficient estimators than the Jolly-Seber model. The tests to compare models given by Jolly do not make complete use of the data, and we present here the appropriate modifications, and also indicate how to carry out goodness-of-fit tests which utilize individual capture history information. We also describe analogous models for the case where young and adult animals are tagged. The availability of computer programs to perform the analysis is noted, and examples are given using output from these programs.

  12. Aqueous Electrolytes: Model Parameters and Process Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Kaj

    This thesis deals with aqueous electrolyte mixtures. The Extended UNIQUAC model is being used to describe the excess Gibbs energy of such solutions. Extended UNIQUAC parameters for the twelve ions Na+, K+, NH4+, H+, Cl-, NO3-, SO42-, HSO4-, OH-, CO32-, HCO3-, and S2O82- are estimated. A computer ...... program including a steady state process simulator for the design, simulation, and optimization of fractional crystallization processes is presented.......This thesis deals with aqueous electrolyte mixtures. The Extended UNIQUAC model is being used to describe the excess Gibbs energy of such solutions. Extended UNIQUAC parameters for the twelve ions Na+, K+, NH4+, H+, Cl-, NO3-, SO42-, HSO4-, OH-, CO32-, HCO3-, and S2O82- are estimated. A computer...

  13. Zinc Nanoparticles Effect on the Parameters of Water

    OpenAIRE

    Trumsiņa, E; Kukle, S; Zommere, G

    2011-01-01

    The article is associated with the detection of metal nanoparticles concentration in water. The main risks associated with the metal covered textile use are metal nanoparticle separation from material in use and maintenance processes, resulting in a threat to living organisms. This article aims to look at options to recognize the presence of zinc oxide nanoparticles in water, applying the GDV electrography method and by analyzing parameters of electrogrammes, distinguish those who respond to ...

  14. Water magnetization and phosphorus transport parameters in the soil

    OpenAIRE

    Generoso, Tarcila N.; Martinez, Mauro A.; Rocha, Genelício C.; Hamakawa, Paulo J.

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT There are scientific studies describing changes in properties of the water when subjected to the action of a magnetic field, which may favor the availability of some nutrients in the soil solution. Some nutrients, although they are essential to the process of crop development, can be sources of pollution for watercourses and soil. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of water magnetization on transport parameters of the phosphate ion in a Red Latosol (RL) and in a Quartza...

  15. Fundamental safety-parameter set for boiling water reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, C.B.; Mollerus, F.S.; Carmichael, L.A.

    1980-12-01

    A minimum set of parameters is proposed which will indicate the overall safety status of a commercial Boiling Water Reactor. Parameters were selected by identifying those sufficient to determine if functions of fundamental importance to safety are being accomplished. The selected set was subjected to verification by comparison with a broad spectrum of postulated events. Appropriate control room display of the parameter set should assist the operators in determining the safety status of the plant quickly and accurately, even if a plant event is not immediately understood

  16. Modelling tourists arrival using time varying parameter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suciptawati, P.; Sukarsa, K. G.; Kencana, Eka N.

    2017-06-01

    The importance of tourism and its related sectors to support economic development and poverty reduction in many countries increase researchers’ attentions to study and model tourists’ arrival. This work is aimed to demonstrate time varying parameter (TVP) technique to model the arrival of Korean’s tourists to Bali. The number of Korean tourists whom visiting Bali for period January 2010 to December 2015 were used to model the number of Korean’s tourists to Bali (KOR) as dependent variable. The predictors are the exchange rate of Won to IDR (WON), the inflation rate in Korea (INFKR), and the inflation rate in Indonesia (INFID). Observing tourists visit to Bali tend to fluctuate by their nationality, then the model was built by applying TVP and its parameters were approximated using Kalman Filter algorithm. The results showed all of predictor variables (WON, INFKR, INFID) significantly affect KOR. For in-sample and out-of-sample forecast with ARIMA’s forecasted values for the predictors, TVP model gave mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) as much as 11.24 percent and 12.86 percent, respectively.

  17. Modeling the outflow of liquid with initial supercritical parameters using the relaxation model for condensation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lezhnin Sergey

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The two-temperature model of the outflow from a vessel with initial supercritical parameters of medium has been realized. The model uses thermodynamic non-equilibrium relaxation approach to describe phase transitions. Based on a new asymptotic model for computing the relaxation time, the outflow of water with supercritical initial pressure and super- and subcritical temperatures has been calculated.

  18. Relationships between the Physico-chemical Water Parameters and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The general chemical characteristics (pH, total alkalinity, conductivity and TDS) and major ions (Ca2+, Na+ and K+) were all within the permissible limits for aquatic life, and they showed direct relationships with the zooplankton fauna of the lake. Physical parameters (water transparency, turbidity, TS and TSS) and nutrient ...

  19. A review of distributed parameter groundwater management modeling methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorelick, Steven M.

    1983-01-01

    Models which solve the governing groundwater flow or solute transport equations in conjunction with optimization techniques, such as linear and quadratic programing, are powerful aquifer management tools. Groundwater management models fall in two general categories: hydraulics or policy evaluation and water allocation. Groundwater hydraulic management models enable the determination of optimal locations and pumping rates of numerous wells under a variety of restrictions placed upon local drawdown, hydraulic gradients, and water production targets. Groundwater policy evaluation and allocation models can be used to study the influence upon regional groundwater use of institutional policies such as taxes and quotas. Furthermore, fairly complex groundwater-surface water allocation problems can be handled using system decomposition and multilevel optimization. Experience from the few real world applications of groundwater optimization-management techniques is summarized. Classified separately are methods for groundwater quality management aimed at optimal waste disposal in the subsurface. This classification is composed of steady state and transient management models that determine disposal patterns in such a way that water quality is protected at supply locations. Classes of research missing from the literature are groundwater quality management models involving nonlinear constraints, models which join groundwater hydraulic and quality simulations with political-economic management considerations, and management models that include parameter uncertainty.

  20. Mass balance model parameter transferability on a tropical glacier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurgiser, Wolfgang; Mölg, Thomas; Nicholson, Lindsey; Kaser, Georg

    2013-04-01

    The mass balance and melt water production of glaciers is of particular interest in the Peruvian Andes where glacier melt water has markedly increased water supply during the pronounced dry seasons in recent decades. However, the melt water contribution from glaciers is projected to decrease with appreciable negative impacts on the local society within the coming decades. Understanding mass balance processes on tropical glaciers is a prerequisite for modeling present and future glacier runoff. As a first step towards this aim we applied a process-based surface mass balance model in order to calculate observed ablation at two stakes in the ablation zone of Shallap Glacier (4800 m a.s.l., 9°S) in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Under the tropical climate, the snow line migrates very frequently across most of the ablation zone all year round causing large temporal and spatial variations of glacier surface conditions and related ablation. Consequently, pronounced differences between the two chosen stakes and the two years were observed. Hourly records of temperature, humidity, wind speed, short wave incoming radiation, and precipitation are available from an automatic weather station (AWS) on the moraine near the glacier for the hydrological years 2006/07 and 2007/08 while stake readings are available at intervals of between 14 to 64 days. To optimize model parameters, we used 1000 model simulations in which the most sensitive model parameters were varied randomly within their physically meaningful ranges. The modeled surface height change was evaluated against the two stake locations in the lower ablation zone (SH11, 4760m) and in the upper ablation zone (SH22, 4816m), respectively. The optimal parameter set for each point achieved good model skill but if we transfer the best parameter combination from one stake site to the other stake site model errors increases significantly. The same happens if we optimize the model parameters for each year individually and transfer

  1. Lumped Parameters Model of a Crescent Pump

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Massimo Rundo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the lumped parameters model of an internal gear crescent pump with relief valve, able to estimate the steady-state flow-pressure characteristic and the pressure ripple. The approach is based on the identification of three variable control volumes regardless of the number of gear teeth. The model has been implemented in the commercial environment LMS Amesim with the development of customized components. Specific attention has been paid to the leakage passageways, some of them affected by the deformation of the cover plate under the action of the delivery pressure. The paper reports the finite element method analysis of the cover for the evaluation of the deflection and the validation through a contactless displacement transducer. Another aspect described in this study is represented by the computational fluid dynamics analysis of the relief valve, whose results have been used for tuning the lumped parameters model. Finally, the validation of the entire model of the pump is presented in terms of steady-state flow rate and of pressure oscillations.

  2. Lumped-parameter Model of a Bucket Foundation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars; Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, Morten

    2009-01-01

    As an alternative to gravity footings or pile foundations, offshore wind turbines at shallow water can be placed on a bucket foundation. The present analysis concerns the development of consistent lumped-parameter models for this type of foundation. The aim is to formulate a computationally effic...... be disregarded without significant loss of accuracy. Finally, special attention is drawn to the influence of the skirt stiffness, i.e. whether the embedded part of the caisson is rigid or flexible....

  3. Modelling anisotropic water transport in polymer composite

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This work reports anisotropic water transport in a polymer composite consisting of an epoxy matrix reinforced with aligned triangular bars made of vinyl ester. By gravimetric experiments, water diffusion in resin and polymer composites were characterized. Parameters for Fickian diffusion and polymer relaxation models were ...

  4. Importance of hydrological parameters in contaminant transport modeling in a terrestrial environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsuduki, Katsunori; Matsunaga, Takeshi

    2007-01-01

    A grid type multi-layered distributed parameter model for calculating discharge in a watershed was described. Model verification with our field observation resulted in different sets of hydrological parameter values, all of which reproduced the observed discharge. The effect of those varied hydrological parameters on contaminant transport calculation was examined and discussed by simulation of event water transfer. (author)

  5. Development of non-bonded interaction parameters between graphene and water using particle swarm optimization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bejagam, Karteek K; Singh, Samrendra; Deshmukh, Sanket A

    2018-05-05

    New Lennard-Jones parameters have been developed to describe the interactions between atomistic model of graphene, represented by REBO potential, and five commonly used all-atom water models, namely SPC, SPC/E, SPC/Fw, SPC/Fd, and TIP3P/Fs by employing particle swarm optimization (PSO) method. These new parameters were optimized to reproduce the macroscopic contact angle of water on a graphene sheet. The calculated line tension was in the order of 10 -11 J/m for the droplets of all water models. Our molecular dynamics simulations indicate the preferential orientation of water molecules near graphene-water interface with one OH bond pointing toward the graphene surface. Detailed analysis of simulation trajectories reveals the presence of water molecules with ≤∼1, ∼2, and ∼4 hydrogen bonds at the surface of air-water interface, graphene-water interface, and bulk region of the water droplet, respectively. Presence of water molecules with ≤∼1 and ∼2 hydrogen bonds suggest the existence of water clusters of different sizes at these interfaces. The trends observed in the libration, bending, and stretching bands of the vibrational spectra are closely associated with these structural features of water. The inhomogeneity in hydrogen bond network of water at the air-water and graphene-water interface is manifested by broadening of the peaks in the libration band for water present at these interfaces. The stretching band for the molecules in water droplet shows a blue shift as compared to the pure bulk water, which conjecture the presence of weaker hydrogen bond network in a droplet. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  6. Modeling of Parameters of Subcritical Assembly SAD

    CERN Document Server

    Petrochenkov, S; Puzynin, I

    2005-01-01

    The accepted conceptual design of the experimental Subcritical Assembly in Dubna (SAD) is based on the MOX core with a nominal unit capacity of 25 kW (thermal). This corresponds to the multiplication coefficient $k_{\\rm eff} =0.95$ and accelerator beam power 1 kW. A subcritical assembly driven with the existing 660 MeV proton accelerator at the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research has been modelled in order to make choice of the optimal parameters for the future experiments. The Monte Carlo method was used to simulate neutron spectra, energy deposition and doses calculations. Some of the calculation results are presented in the paper.

  7. Parameter estimation in fractional diffusion models

    CERN Document Server

    Kubilius, Kęstutis; Ralchenko, Kostiantyn

    2017-01-01

    This book is devoted to parameter estimation in diffusion models involving fractional Brownian motion and related processes. For many years now, standard Brownian motion has been (and still remains) a popular model of randomness used to investigate processes in the natural sciences, financial markets, and the economy. The substantial limitation in the use of stochastic diffusion models with Brownian motion is due to the fact that the motion has independent increments, and, therefore, the random noise it generates is “white,” i.e., uncorrelated. However, many processes in the natural sciences, computer networks and financial markets have long-term or short-term dependences, i.e., the correlations of random noise in these processes are non-zero, and slowly or rapidly decrease with time. In particular, models of financial markets demonstrate various kinds of memory and usually this memory is modeled by fractional Brownian diffusion. Therefore, the book constructs diffusion models with memory and provides s...

  8. Soil-related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A. J. Smith

    2003-01-01

    This analysis is one of the technical reports containing documentation of the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN biosphere model is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2003 [163602]). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development at the time this report is issued and therefore not available. This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this report. This report, ''Soil Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five analysis reports that develop input parameters for use in the ERMYN model. This report is the source documentation for the six biosphere parameters identified in Table 1-1. ''The Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. The purpose of this analysis was to develop the biosphere model parameters needed to evaluate doses from pathways associated with the accumulation and depletion of radionuclides in the soil. These parameters support the calculation of radionuclide concentrations in soil from on-going irrigation and ash

  9. Documentation of the dynamic parameter, water-use, stream and lake flow routing, and two summary output modules and updates to surface-depression storage simulation and initial conditions specification options with the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regan, R. Steve; LaFontaine, Jacob H.

    2017-10-05

    This report documents seven enhancements to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrologic simulation code: two time-series input options, two new output options, and three updates of existing capabilities. The enhancements are (1) new dynamic parameter module, (2) new water-use module, (3) new Hydrologic Response Unit (HRU) summary output module, (4) new basin variables summary output module, (5) new stream and lake flow routing module, (6) update to surface-depression storage and flow simulation, and (7) update to the initial-conditions specification. This report relies heavily upon U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods, book 6, chapter B7, which documents PRMS version 4 (PRMS-IV). A brief description of PRMS is included in this report.

  10. Moose models with vanishing S parameter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casalbuoni, R.; De Curtis, S.; Dominici, D.

    2004-01-01

    In the linear moose framework, which naturally emerges in deconstruction models, we show that there is a unique solution for the vanishing of the S parameter at the lowest order in the weak interactions. We consider an effective gauge theory based on K SU(2) gauge groups, K+1 chiral fields, and electroweak groups SU(2) L and U(1) Y at the ends of the chain of the moose. S vanishes when a link in the moose chain is cut. As a consequence one has to introduce a dynamical nonlocal field connecting the two ends of the moose. Then the model acquires an additional custodial symmetry which protects this result. We examine also the possibility of a strong suppression of S through an exponential behavior of the link couplings as suggested by the Randall Sundrum metric

  11. Hydrological Modelling and Parameter Identification for Green Roof

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, W.; Tung, C.

    2012-12-01

    Green roofs, a multilayered system covered by plants, can be used to replace traditional concrete roofs as one of various measures to mitigate the increasing stormwater runoff in the urban environment. Moreover, facing the high uncertainty of the climate change, the present engineering method as adaptation may be regarded as improper measurements; reversely, green roofs are unregretful and flexible, and thus are rather important and suitable. The related technology has been developed for several years and the researches evaluating the stormwater reduction performance of green roofs are ongoing prosperously. Many European counties, cities in the U.S., and other local governments incorporate green roof into the stormwater control policy. Therefore, in terms of stormwater management, it is necessary to develop a robust hydrologic model to quantify the efficacy of green roofs over different types of designs and environmental conditions. In this research, a physical based hydrologic model is proposed to simulate water flowing process in the green roof system. In particular, the model adopts the concept of water balance, bringing a relatively simple and intuitive idea. Also, the research compares the two methods in the surface water balance calculation. One is based on Green-Ampt equation, and the other is under the SCS curve number calculation. A green roof experiment is designed to collect weather data and water discharge. Then, the proposed model is verified with these observed data; furthermore, the parameters using in the model are calibrated to find appropriate values in the green roof hydrologic simulation. This research proposes a simple physical based hydrologic model and the measures to determine parameters for the model.

  12. Lotic Water Hydrodynamic Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Judi, David Ryan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Tasseff, Byron Alexander [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-01-23

    Water-related natural disasters, for example, floods and droughts, are among the most frequent and costly natural hazards, both socially and economically. Many of these floods are a result of excess rainfall collecting in streams and rivers, and subsequently overtopping banks and flowing overland into urban environments. Floods can cause physical damage to critical infrastructure and present health risks through the spread of waterborne diseases. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) has developed Lotic, a state-of-the-art surface water hydrodynamic model, to simulate propagation of flood waves originating from a variety of events. Lotic is a two-dimensional (2D) flood model that has been used primarily for simulations in which overland water flows are characterized by movement in two dimensions, such as flood waves expected from rainfall-runoff events, storm surge, and tsunamis. In 2013, LANL developers enhanced Lotic through several development efforts. These developments included enhancements to the 2D simulation engine, including numerical formulation, computational efficiency developments, and visualization. Stakeholders can use simulation results to estimate infrastructure damage and cascading consequences within other sets of infrastructure, as well as to inform the development of flood mitigation strategies.

  13. Water magnetization and phosphorus transport parameters in the soil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tarcila N. Generoso

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT There are scientific studies describing changes in properties of the water when subjected to the action of a magnetic field, which may favor the availability of some nutrients in the soil solution. Some nutrients, although they are essential to the process of crop development, can be sources of pollution for watercourses and soil. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of water magnetization on transport parameters of the phosphate ion in a Red Latosol (RL and in a Quartzarenic Neosol (QN. Saturated leaching columns were connected to bottles containing KH2PO4 solutions. In RL, there were significant differences in phosphorus (P transport parameters, related to the retardation factor (R and distribution coefficient (Kd. For the others, Peclet number (Pe, dispersive-diffusion coefficient (D and dispersivity (λ, there were no significant differences in the comparison between the treatments with magnetized and non-magnetized water. In QN, there were statistical differences in R and Kd. For the other parameters, Pe, D and λ, there were no statistical differences between treatments.

  14. Models for setting ATM parameter values

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blaabjerg, Søren; Gravey, A.; Romæuf, L.

    1996-01-01

    presents approximate methods and discusses their applicability. We then discuss the problem of obtaining traffic characteristic values for a connection that has crossed a series of switching nodes. This problem is particularly relevant for the traffic contract components corresponding to ICIs...... (CDV) tolerance(s). The values taken by these traffic parameters characterize the so-called ''Worst Case Traffic'' that is used by CAC procedures for accepting a new connection and allocating resources to it. Conformance to the negotiated traffic characteristics is defined, at the ingress User...... essential to set traffic characteristic values that are relevant to the considered cell stream, and that ensure that the amount of non-conforming traffic is small. Using a queueing model representation for the GCRA formalism, several methods are available for choosing the traffic characteristics. This paper...

  15. Improving the transferability of hydrological model parameters under changing conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yingchun; Bárdossy, András

    2014-05-01

    Hydrological models are widely utilized to describe catchment behaviors with observed hydro-meteorological data. Hydrological process may be considered as non-stationary under the changing climate and land use conditions. An applicable hydrological model should be able to capture the essential features of the target catchment and therefore be transferable to different conditions. At present, many model applications based on the stationary assumptions are not sufficient for predicting further changes or time variability. The aim of this study is to explore new model calibration methods in order to improve the transferability of model parameters. To cope with the instability of model parameters calibrated on catchments in non-stationary conditions, we investigate the idea of simultaneously calibration on streamflow records for the period with dissimilar climate characteristics. In additional, a weather based weighting function is implemented to adjust the calibration period to future trends. For regions with limited data and ungauged basins, the common calibration was applied by using information from similar catchments. Result shows the model performance and transfer quantity could be well improved via common calibration. This model calibration approach will be used to enhance regional water management and flood forecasting capabilities.

  16. SIMULATION OF SOME PARAMETERS OF PLANT WATER RELATION IN MAIZE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A ANDA

    2002-11-01

    Full Text Available Investigations on simulation of plant temperature and stomatal resistance in maize by using the microclimate simulation model of Goudriaan (1977 were carried out at Keszthely Agrometeorological Research Station, during the growing season of 2001. The size of plot was 0.5 ha, because of parallel investigations done on the elements of microclimate. To facilitate the validation of the model field observations were measured. Two watering levels, rainfed plots with natural rainfall only, and irrigated plant stand were applied in simulation study. We irrigated the plants by using the amounts of crop water stress index with +drop irrigation system. The limit value for watering was the CWSI >0,25. In summer of 2001 the weather was dry and hot. The lack of water was substituted by 170 mm irrigation water on 4 occasions. To validate the model the root mean square deviation (RMSD between a number of pairs of simulated and measured microclimate elements was applied. The estimation of plant temperature was very accurate, the error of simulation was below 0.5 degree for noon irrigated plots and 0.3 degree for irrigated ones. The accuracy in stomatal resistance simulation was weaker than that of plant temperature, the error was 5.9 % for nonirrigated, and 21 % for irrigated plots. The estimation of stomatal resistance for irrigated plants need further refinement, but this requires changes in the basic equations of the model.

  17. Parameters-related uncertainty in modeling sugar cane yield with an agro-Land Surface Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valade, A.; Ciais, P.; Vuichard, N.; Viovy, N.; Ruget, F.; Gabrielle, B.

    2012-12-01

    Agro-Land Surface Models (agro-LSM) have been developed from the coupling of specific crop models and large-scale generic vegetation models. They aim at accounting for the spatial distribution and variability of energy, water and carbon fluxes within soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum with a particular emphasis on how crop phenology and agricultural management practice influence the turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere, and the underlying water and carbon pools. A part of the uncertainty in these models is related to the many parameters included in the models' equations. In this study, we quantify the parameter-based uncertainty in the simulation of sugar cane biomass production with the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS on a multi-regional approach with data from sites in Australia, La Reunion and Brazil. First, the main source of uncertainty for the output variables NPP, GPP, and sensible heat flux (SH) is determined through a screening of the main parameters of the model on a multi-site basis leading to the selection of a subset of most sensitive parameters causing most of the uncertainty. In a second step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out on the parameters selected from the screening analysis at a regional scale. For this, a Monte-Carlo sampling method associated with the calculation of Partial Ranked Correlation Coefficients is used. First, we quantify the sensitivity of the output variables to individual input parameters on a regional scale for two regions of intensive sugar cane cultivation in Australia and Brazil. Then, we quantify the overall uncertainty in the simulation's outputs propagated from the uncertainty in the input parameters. Seven parameters are identified by the screening procedure as driving most of the uncertainty in the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS model output at all sites. These parameters control photosynthesis (optimal temperature of photosynthesis, optimal carboxylation rate), radiation interception (extinction coefficient), root

  18. Dengue human infection model performance parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endy, Timothy P

    2014-06-15

    Dengue is a global health problem and of concern to travelers and deploying military personnel with development and licensure of an effective tetravalent dengue vaccine a public health priority. The dengue viruses (DENVs) are mosquito-borne flaviviruses transmitted by infected Aedes mosquitoes. Illness manifests across a clinical spectrum with severe disease characterized by intravascular volume depletion and hemorrhage. DENV illness results from a complex interaction of viral properties and host immune responses. Dengue vaccine development efforts are challenged by immunologic complexity, lack of an adequate animal model of disease, absence of an immune correlate of protection, and only partially informative immunogenicity assays. A dengue human infection model (DHIM) will be an essential tool in developing potential dengue vaccines or antivirals. The potential performance parameters needed for a DHIM to support vaccine or antiviral candidates are discussed. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  19. Dimensionality reduction of RKHS model parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taouali, Okba; Elaissi, Ilyes; Messaoud, Hassani

    2015-07-01

    This paper proposes a new method to reduce the parameter number of models developed in the Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS). In fact, this number is equal to the number of observations used in the learning phase which is assumed to be high. The proposed method entitled Reduced Kernel Partial Least Square (RKPLS) consists on approximating the retained latent components determined using the Kernel Partial Least Square (KPLS) method by their closest observation vectors. The paper proposes the design and the comparative study of the proposed RKPLS method and the Support Vector Machines on Regression (SVR) technique. The proposed method is applied to identify a nonlinear Process Trainer PT326 which is a physical process available in our laboratory. Moreover as a thermal process with large time response may help record easily effective observations which contribute to model identification. Compared to the SVR technique, the results from the proposed RKPLS method are satisfactory. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Investigation of land use effects on Nash model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niazi, Faegheh; Fakheri Fard, Ahmad; Nourani, Vahid; Goodrich, David; Gupta, Hoshin

    2015-04-01

    Flood forecasting is of great importance in hydrologic planning, hydraulic structure design, water resources management and sustainable designs like flood control and management. Nash's instantaneous unit hydrograph is frequently used for simulating hydrological response in natural watersheds. Urban hydrology is gaining more attention due to population increases and associated construction escalation. Rapid development of urban areas affects the hydrologic processes of watersheds by decreasing soil permeability, flood base flow, lag time and increase in flood volume, peak runoff rates and flood frequency. In this study the influence of urbanization on the significant parameters of the Nash model have been investigated. These parameters were calculated using three popular methods (i.e. moment, root mean square error and random sampling data generation), in a small watershed consisting of one natural sub-watershed which drains into a residentially developed sub-watershed in the city of Sierra Vista, Arizona. The results indicated that for all three methods, the lag time, which is product of Nash parameters "K" and "n", in the natural sub-watershed is greater than the developed one. This logically implies more storage and/or attenuation in the natural sub-watershed. The median K and n parameters derived from the three methods using calibration events were tested via a set of verification events. The results indicated that all the three method have acceptable accuracy in hydrograph simulation. The CDF curves and histograms of the parameters clearly show the difference of the Nash parameter values between the natural and developed sub-watersheds. Some specific upper and lower percentile values of the median of the generated parameters (i.e. 10, 20 and 30 %) were analyzed to future investigates the derived parameters. The model was sensitive to variations in the value of the uncertain K and n parameter. Changes in n are smaller than K in both sub-watersheds indicating

  1. Contaminant transport in aquifers: improving the determination of model parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sabino, C.V.S.; Moreira, R.M.; Lula, Z.L.; Chausson, Y.; Magalhaes, W.F.; Vianna, M.N.

    1998-01-01

    Parameters conditioning the migration behavior of cesium and mercury are measured with their tracers 137 Cs and 203 Hg in the laboratory, using both batch and column experiments. Batch tests were used to define the sorption isotherm characteristics. Also investigated were the influences of some test parameters, in particular those due to the volume of water to mass of soil ratio (V/m). A provisional relationship between V/m and the distribution coefficient, K d , has been advanced, and a procedure to estimate K d 's valid for environmental values of the ratio V/m has been suggested. Column tests provided the parameters for a transport model. A major problem to be dealt with in such tests is the collimation of the radioactivity probe. Besides mechanically optimizing the collimator, a deconvolution procedure has been suggested and tested, with statistical criteria, to filter off both noise and spurious tracer signals. Correction procedures for the integrating effect introduced by sampling at the exit of columns have also been developed. These techniques may be helpful in increasing the accuracy required in the measurement of parameters conditioning contaminant migration in soils, thus allowing more reliable predictions based on mathematical model applications. (author)

  2. Temporal variation and scaling of parameters for a monthly hydrologic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Chao; Liu, Pan; Wang, Dingbao; Wang, Weiguang

    2018-03-01

    The temporal variation of model parameters is affected by the catchment conditions and has a significant impact on hydrological simulation. This study aims to evaluate the seasonality and downscaling of model parameter across time scales based on monthly and mean annual water balance models with a common model framework. Two parameters of the monthly model, i.e., k and m, are assumed to be time-variant at different months. Based on the hydrological data set from 121 MOPEX catchments in the United States, we firstly analyzed the correlation between parameters (k and m) and catchment properties (NDVI and frequency of rainfall events, α). The results show that parameter k is positively correlated with NDVI or α, while the correlation is opposite for parameter m, indicating that precipitation and vegetation affect monthly water balance by controlling temporal variation of parameters k and m. The multiple linear regression is then used to fit the relationship between ε and the means and coefficient of variations of parameters k and m. Based on the empirical equation and the correlations between the time-variant parameters and NDVI, the mean annual parameter ε is downscaled to monthly k and m. The results show that it has lower NSEs than these from model with time-variant k and m being calibrated through SCE-UA, while for several study catchments, it has higher NSEs than that of the model with constant parameters. The proposed method is feasible and provides a useful tool for temporal scaling of model parameter.

  3. Sensitivity analysis of specific activity model parameters for environmental transport of 3H and dose assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rout, S.; Mishra, D.G.; Ravi, P.M.; Tripathi, R.M.

    2016-01-01

    Tritium is one of the radionuclides likely to get released to the environment from Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors. Environmental models are extensively used to quantify the complex environmental transport processes of radionuclides and also to assess the impact to the environment. Model parameters exerting the significant influence on model results are identified through a sensitivity analysis (SA). SA is the study of how the variation (uncertainty) in the output of a mathematical model can be apportioned, qualitatively or quantitatively, to different sources of variation in the input parameters. This study was designed to identify the sensitive model parameters of specific activity model (TRS 1616, IAEA) for environmental transfer of 3 H following release to air and then to vegetation and animal products. Model includes parameters such as air to soil transfer factor (CRs), Tissue Free Water 3 H to Organically Bound 3 H ratio (Rp), Relative humidity (RH), WCP (fractional water content) and WEQp (water equivalent factor) any change in these parameters leads to change in 3 H level in vegetation and animal products consequently change in dose due to ingestion. All these parameters are function of climate and/or plant which change with time, space and species. Estimation of these parameters at every time is a time consuming and also required sophisticated instrumentation. Therefore it is necessary to identify the sensitive parameters and freeze the values of least sensitive parameters at constant values for more accurate estimation of 3 H dose in short time for routine assessment

  4. Clustering reveals limits of parameter identifiability in multi-parameter models of biochemical dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nienałtowski, Karol; Włodarczyk, Michał; Lipniacki, Tomasz; Komorowski, Michał

    2015-09-29

    Compared to engineering or physics problems, dynamical models in quantitative biology typically depend on a relatively large number of parameters. Progress in developing mathematics to manipulate such multi-parameter models and so enable their efficient interplay with experiments has been slow. Existing solutions are significantly limited by model size. In order to simplify analysis of multi-parameter models a method for clustering of model parameters is proposed. It is based on a derived statistically meaningful measure of similarity between groups of parameters. The measure quantifies to what extend changes in values of some parameters can be compensated by changes in values of other parameters. The proposed methodology provides a natural mathematical language to precisely communicate and visualise effects resulting from compensatory changes in values of parameters. As a results, a relevant insight into identifiability analysis and experimental planning can be obtained. Analysis of NF-κB and MAPK pathway models shows that highly compensative parameters constitute clusters consistent with the network topology. The method applied to examine an exceptionally rich set of published experiments on the NF-κB dynamics reveals that the experiments jointly ensure identifiability of only 60% of model parameters. The method indicates which further experiments should be performed in order to increase the number of identifiable parameters. We currently lack methods that simplify broadly understood analysis of multi-parameter models. The introduced tools depict mutually compensative effects between parameters to provide insight regarding role of individual parameters, identifiability and experimental design. The method can also find applications in related methodological areas of model simplification and parameters estimation.

  5. Inverse modeling of hydrologic parameters using surface flux and runoff observations in the Community Land Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Y.; Hou, Z.; Huang, M.; Tian, F.; Leung, L. Ruby

    2013-12-01

    This study demonstrates the possibility of inverting hydrologic parameters using surface flux and runoff observations in version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4). Previous studies showed that surface flux and runoff calculations are sensitive to major hydrologic parameters in CLM4 over different watersheds, and illustrated the necessity and possibility of parameter calibration. Both deterministic least-square fitting and stochastic Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-Bayesian inversion approaches are evaluated by applying them to CLM4 at selected sites with different climate and soil conditions. The unknowns to be estimated include surface and subsurface runoff generation parameters and vadose zone soil water parameters. We find that using model parameters calibrated by the sampling-based stochastic inversion approaches provides significant improvements in the model simulations compared to using default CLM4 parameter values, and that as more information comes in, the predictive intervals (ranges of posterior distributions) of the calibrated parameters become narrower. In general, parameters that are identified to be significant through sensitivity analyses and statistical tests are better calibrated than those with weak or nonlinear impacts on flux or runoff observations. Temporal resolution of observations has larger impacts on the results of inverse modeling using heat flux data than runoff data. Soil and vegetation cover have important impacts on parameter sensitivities, leading to different patterns of posterior distributions of parameters at different sites. Overall, the MCMC-Bayesian inversion approach effectively and reliably improves the simulation of CLM under different climates and environmental conditions. Bayesian model averaging of the posterior estimates with different reference acceptance probabilities can smooth the posterior distribution and provide more reliable parameter estimates, but at the expense of wider uncertainty bounds.

  6. Application of ann for predicting water quality parameters in the mediterranean sea along gaza-palestine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zaqoot, H.A.; Unar, M.A.

    2008-01-01

    Seawater pollution problems are gaining interest world wide because of their health impacts and other environmental issues. Intense human activities in areas surrounding enclosed and semi-enclosed seas such as the Mediterranean Sea always produce in the long term a strong environmental impact in the form of coastal and marine degradation. This paper is concerned with the use of ANNs (Artificial Neural Networks) MLP ( Multilayer Perceptron) model for the prediction of pH and EC (Electrical Conductivity) in water quality parameters along Gaza city coast. MLP neural networks are trained and developed with reference to three major oceanographic parameters (water temperature, wind speed and turbidity) to predict the values of pH and EC; these parameters are considered as inputs of the neural network. The data collected comprised of four years and collected from nine locations along Gaza coastline. Results show that the model has high capability and accuracy in predicting both parameters. The network performance has been validated with different data sets and the results show satisfactory performance. Results of the developed model have been compared with multiple regression statistical models and found that MLP predictions are slightly better than the conventional methods. Prediction results prove that the proposed approach is suitable for modeling the water quality in the Mediterranean Sea along Gaza. (author)

  7. Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, A. J.

    2004-01-01

    analysis revises the previous version with the same name (BSC 2003 [DIRS 161239]), which was itself a revision of one titled ''Evaluate Soil/Radionuclide Removal by Erosion and Leaching'' (CRWMS M and O 2001 [DIRS 152517]). In Revision 00 of this report, the data generated were fixed values (i.e., taking no account of uncertainty and variability). Revision 01 (BSC 2003 [DIRS 161239]) incorporated uncertainty and variability into the values for the bulk density, elemental partition coefficients, average annual loss of soil from erosion, resuspension enhancement factor, and field capacity water content. The current revision of this document improves the transparency and traceability of the products without changing the details of the analysis. This analysis report supports the treatment of six of the features, events, and processes (FEPs) applicable to the Yucca Mountain reference biosphere (DTN: MO0407SEPFEPLA.000 [DIRS 170760]). The use of the more recent FEP list in DTN: MO0407SEPFEPLA.000 [DIRS 170760] represents a deviation from the detail provided in the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]), which referenced a previous version of the FEP list. The parameters developed in this report support treatment of these six FEPs addressed in the biosphere model that are listed in Table 1-1. Inclusion and treatment of FEPs in the biosphere model is described in the ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460], Section 6.2)

  8. Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A. J. Smith

    2004-09-09

    was defined as AP-SIII.9Q, ''Scientific Analyses''. This analysis revises the previous version with the same name (BSC 2003 [DIRS 161239]), which was itself a revision of one titled ''Evaluate Soil/Radionuclide Removal by Erosion and Leaching'' (CRWMS M&O 2001 [DIRS 152517]). In Revision 00 of this report, the data generated were fixed values (i.e., taking no account of uncertainty and variability). Revision 01 (BSC 2003 [DIRS 161239]) incorporated uncertainty and variability into the values for the bulk density, elemental partition coefficients, average annual loss of soil from erosion, resuspension enhancement factor, and field capacity water content. The current revision of this document improves the transparency and traceability of the products without changing the details of the analysis. This analysis report supports the treatment of six of the features, events, and processes (FEPs) applicable to the Yucca Mountain reference biosphere (DTN: MO0407SEPFEPLA.000 [DIRS 170760]). The use of the more recent FEP list in DTN: MO0407SEPFEPLA.000 [DIRS 170760] represents a deviation from the detail provided in the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]), which referenced a previous version of the FEP list. The parameters developed in this report support treatment of these six FEPs addressed in the biosphere model that are listed in Table 1-1. Inclusion and treatment of FEPs in the biosphere model is described in the ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460], Section 6.2).

  9. Improved gravitational search algorithm for parameter identification of water turbine regulation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Zhihuan; Yuan, Xiaohui; Tian, Hao; Ji, Bin

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • We propose an improved gravitational search algorithm (IGSA). • IGSA is applied to parameter identification of water turbine regulation system (WTRS). • WTRS is modeled by considering the impact of turbine speed on torque and water flow. • Weighted objective function strategy is applied to parameter identification of WTRS. - Abstract: Parameter identification of water turbine regulation system (WTRS) is crucial in precise modeling hydropower generating unit (HGU) and provides support for the adaptive control and stability analysis of power system. In this paper, an improved gravitational search algorithm (IGSA) is proposed and applied to solve the identification problem for WTRS system under load and no-load running conditions. This newly algorithm which is based on standard gravitational search algorithm (GSA) accelerates convergence speed with combination of the search strategy of particle swarm optimization and elastic-ball method. Chaotic mutation which is devised to stepping out the local optimal with a certain probability is also added into the algorithm to avoid premature. Furthermore, a new kind of model associated to the engineering practices is built and analyzed in the simulation tests. An illustrative example for parameter identification of WTRS is used to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed IGSA, as compared with standard GSA and particle swarm optimization in terms of parameter identification accuracy and convergence speed. The simulation results show that IGSA performs best for all identification indicators

  10. Underground water stress release models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yong; Dang, Shenjun; Lü, Shaochuan

    2011-08-01

    The accumulation of tectonic stress may cause earthquakes at some epochs. However, in most cases, it leads to crustal deformations. Underground water level is a sensitive indication of the crustal deformations. We incorporate the information of the underground water level into the stress release models (SRM), and obtain the underground water stress release model (USRM). We apply USRM to the earthquakes occurred at Tangshan region. The analysis shows that the underground water stress release model outperforms both Poisson model and stress release model. Monte Carlo simulation shows that the simulated seismicity by USRM is very close to the real seismicity.

  11. Preliminary ECLSS waste water model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Donald L.; Holder, Donald W., Jr.; Alexander, Kevin; Shaw, R. G.; Hayase, John K.

    1991-01-01

    A preliminary waste water model for input to the Space Station Freedom (SSF) Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) Water Processor (WP) has been generated for design purposes. Data have been compiled from various ECLSS tests and flight sample analyses. A discussion of the characterization of the waste streams comprising the model is presented, along with a discussion of the waste water model and the rationale for the inclusion of contaminants in their respective concentrations. The major objective is to establish a methodology for the development of a waste water model and to present the current state of that model.

  12. [Weight parameters of water quality impact and risk grade determination of water environmental sensitive spots in Jiashan].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Rong-Rong; Pang, Yong; Zhang, Qian; Chen, Ke; Sun, Ming-Yuan

    2012-07-01

    For the safety of the water environment in Jiashan county in Zhejiang Province, one-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality models are established based on three large-scale monitoring of hydrology and water quality in Jiashan county, three water environmental sensitive spots including Hongqitang dam Chijia hydrological station and Luxie pond are selected to investigate weight parameters of water quality impact and risk grade determination. Results indicate as follows (1) Internal pollution impact in Jiashan areas was greater than the external, the average weight parameters of internal chemical oxygen demand (COD) pollution is 55.3%, internal ammonia nitrogen (NH(4+)-N) is 67.4%, internal total phosphor (TP) is 63.1%. Non-point pollution impact in Jiashan areas was greater than point pollution impact, the average weight parameters of non-point COD pollutions is 53.7%, non-point NH(4+)-N is 65.9%, non-point TP is 57.8%. (2) The risk of Hongqitang dam and Chijia hydrological station are in the middle risk. The risk of Luxie pond is also in the middle risk in August, and in April and December the risk of Luxie pond is low. The strategic decision will be suggested to guarantee water environment security and social and economic security in the study.

  13. Coupled 1D-2D hydrodynamic inundation model for sewer overflow: Influence of modeling parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adeniyi Ganiyu Adeogun

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents outcome of our investigation on the influence of modeling parameters on 1D-2D hydrodynamic inundation model for sewer overflow, developed through coupling of an existing 1D sewer network model (SWMM and 2D inundation model (BREZO. The 1D-2D hydrodynamic model was developed for the purpose of examining flood incidence due to surcharged water on overland surface. The investigation was carried out by performing sensitivity analysis on the developed model. For the sensitivity analysis, modeling parameters, such as mesh resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM resolution and roughness were considered. The outcome of the study shows the model is sensitive to changes in these parameters. The performance of the model is significantly influenced, by the Manning's friction value, the DEM resolution and the area of the triangular mesh. Also, changes in the aforementioned modeling parameters influence the Flood characteristics, such as the inundation extent, the flow depth and the velocity across the model domain.

  14. Sample Size and Item Parameter Estimation Precision When Utilizing the One-Parameter "Rasch" Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Custer, Michael

    2015-01-01

    This study examines the relationship between sample size and item parameter estimation precision when utilizing the one-parameter model. Item parameter estimates are examined relative to "true" values by evaluating the decline in root mean squared deviation (RMSD) and the number of outliers as sample size increases. This occurs across…

  15. Models for estimating photosynthesis parameters from in situ production profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovač, Žarko; Platt, Trevor; Sathyendranath, Shubha; Antunović, Suzana

    2017-12-01

    The rate of carbon assimilation in phytoplankton primary production models is mathematically prescribed with photosynthesis irradiance functions, which convert a light flux (energy) into a material flux (carbon). Information on this rate is contained in photosynthesis parameters: the initial slope and the assimilation number. The exactness of parameter values is crucial for precise calculation of primary production. Here we use a model of the daily production profile based on a suite of photosynthesis irradiance functions and extract photosynthesis parameters from in situ measured daily production profiles at the Hawaii Ocean Time-series station Aloha. For each function we recover parameter values, establish parameter distributions and quantify model skill. We observe that the choice of the photosynthesis irradiance function to estimate the photosynthesis parameters affects the magnitudes of parameter values as recovered from in situ profiles. We also tackle the problem of parameter exchange amongst the models and the effect it has on model performance. All models displayed little or no bias prior to parameter exchange, but significant bias following parameter exchange. The best model performance resulted from using optimal parameter values. Model formulation was extended further by accounting for spectral effects and deriving a spectral analytical solution for the daily production profile. The daily production profile was also formulated with time dependent growing biomass governed by a growth equation. The work on parameter recovery was further extended by exploring how to extract photosynthesis parameters from information on watercolumn production. It was demonstrated how to estimate parameter values based on a linearization of the full analytical solution for normalized watercolumn production and from the solution itself, without linearization. The paper complements previous works on photosynthesis irradiance models by analysing the skill and consistency of

  16. Optimizing incomplete sample designs for item response model parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Linden, Willem J.

    Several models for optimizing incomplete sample designs with respect to information on the item parameters are presented. The following cases are considered: (1) known ability parameters; (2) unknown ability parameters; (3) item sets with multiple ability scales; and (4) response models with

  17. Automatic estimation of aquifer parameters using long-term water supply pumping and injection records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Ning; Illman, Walter A.

    2016-09-01

    Analyses are presented of long-term hydrographs perturbed by variable pumping/injection events in a confined aquifer at a municipal water-supply well field in the Region of Waterloo, Ontario (Canada). Such records are typically not considered for aquifer test analysis. Here, the water-level variations are fingerprinted to pumping/injection rate changes using the Theis model implemented in the WELLS code coupled with PEST. Analyses of these records yield a set of transmissivity ( T) and storativity ( S) estimates between each monitoring and production borehole. These individual estimates are found to poorly predict water-level variations at nearby monitoring boreholes not used in the calibration effort. On the other hand, the geometric means of the individual T and S estimates are similar to those obtained from previous pumping tests conducted at the same site and adequately predict water-level variations in other boreholes. The analyses reveal that long-term municipal water-level records are amenable to analyses using a simple analytical solution to estimate aquifer parameters. However, uniform parameters estimated with analytical solutions should be considered as first rough estimates. More accurate hydraulic parameters should be obtained by calibrating a three-dimensional numerical model that rigorously captures the complexities of the site with these data.

  18. Aerosol water parameterisation: a single parameter framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Metzger

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available We introduce a framework to efficiently parameterise the aerosol water uptake for mixtures of semi-volatile and non-volatile compounds, based on the coefficient, νi. This solute-specific coefficient was introduced in Metzger et al. (2012 to accurately parameterise the single solution hygroscopic growth, considering the Kelvin effect – accounting for the water uptake of concentrated nanometer-sized particles up to dilute solutions, i.e. from the compounds relative humidity of deliquescence (RHD up to supersaturation (Köhler theory. Here we extend the νi parameterisation from single to mixed solutions. We evaluate our framework at various levels of complexity, by considering the full gas–liquid–solid partitioning for a comprehensive comparison with reference calculations using the E-AIM, EQUISOLV II and ISORROPIA II models as well as textbook examples. We apply our parameterisation in the EQuilibrium Simplified Aerosol Model V4 (EQSAM4clim for climate simulations, implemented in a box model and in the global chemistry–climate model EMAC. Our results show (i that the νi approach enables one to analytically solve the entire gas–liquid–solid partitioning and the mixed solution water uptake with sufficient accuracy, (ii that ammonium sulfate mixtures can be solved with a simple method, e.g. pure ammonium nitrate and mixed ammonium nitrate and (iii that the aerosol optical depth (AOD simulations are in close agreement with remote sensing observations for the year 2005. Long-term evaluation of the EMAC results based on EQSAM4clim and ISORROPIA II will be presented separately.

  19. Modelling water temperature in TOXSWA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jacobs, C.M.J.; Deneer, J.W.; Adriaanse, P.I.

    2010-01-01

    A reasonably accurate estimate of the water temperature is necessary for a good description of the degradation of plant protection products in water which is used in the surface water model TOXSWA. Based on a consideration of basic physical processes that describe the influence of weather on the

  20. Study on Parameters Modeling of Wind Turbines Using SCADA Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yonglong YAN

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Taking the advantage of the current massive monitoring data from Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA system of wind farm, it is of important significance for anomaly detection, early warning and fault diagnosis to build the data model of state parameters of wind turbines (WTs. The operational conditions and the relationships between the state parameters of wind turbines are complex. It is difficult to establish the model of state parameter accurately, and the modeling method of state parameters of wind turbines considering parameter selection is proposed. Firstly, by analyzing the characteristic of SCADA data, a reasonable range of data and monitoring parameters are chosen. Secondly, neural network algorithm is adapted, and the selection method of input parameters in the model is presented. Generator bearing temperature and cooling air temperature are regarded as target parameters, and the two models are built and input parameters of the models are selected, respectively. Finally, the parameter selection method in this paper and the method using genetic algorithm-partial least square (GA-PLS are analyzed comparatively, and the results show that the proposed methods are correct and effective. Furthermore, the modeling of two parameters illustrate that the method in this paper can applied to other state parameters of wind turbines.

  1. Parameter and Uncertainty Estimation in Groundwater Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jacob Birk

    The data basis on which groundwater models are constructed is in general very incomplete, and this leads to uncertainty in model outcome. Groundwater models form the basis for many, often costly decisions and if these are to be made on solid grounds, the uncertainty attached to model results must...... be quantified. This study was motivated by the need to estimate the uncertainty involved in groundwater models.Chapter 2 presents an integrated surface/subsurface unstructured finite difference model that was developed and applied to a synthetic case study.The following two chapters concern calibration...... was applied.Capture zone modelling was conducted on a synthetic stationary 3-dimensional flow problem involving river, surface and groundwater flow. Simulated capture zones were illustrated as likelihood maps and compared with a deterministic capture zones derived from a reference model. The results showed...

  2. Modelling Soil Water Retention for Weed Seed Germination Sensitivity to Water Potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. John Bullied

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Soil water retention is important for the study of water availability to germinating weed seeds. Six soil water retention models (Campbell, Brooks-Corey, four- and five-parameter van Genuchten, Tani, and Russo with residual soil water parameter derivations were evaluated to describe water retention for weed seed germination at minimum threshold soil water potential for three hillslope positions. The Campbell, Brooks-Corey, and four-parameter van Genuchten model with modified or estimated forms of the residual parameter had superior but similar data fit. The Campbell model underestimated water retention at a potential less than −0.5 MPa for the upper hillslope that could result in underestimating seed germination. The Tani and Russo models overestimated water retention at a potential less than −0.1 MPa for all hillslope positions. Model selection and residual parameter specification are important for weed seed germination by representing water retention at the level of minimum threshold water potential for germination. Weed seed germination models driven by the hydrothermal soil environment rely on the best-fitting soil water retention model to produce dynamic predictions of seed germination.

  3. WINKLER'S SINGLE-PARAMETER SUBGRADE MODEL FROM ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Preferred Customer

    SUBGRADE MODELING. Asrat Worku. Department of ... The models give consistently larger stiffness for the Winkler springs as compared to previously proposed similar continuum-based models that ignore the lateral stresses. ...... (ν = 0.25 and E = 40MPa); (b) a medium stiff clay (ν = 0.45 and E = 50MPa). In contrast to this, ...

  4. Modelling Ballast Water Transport

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Jayakumar, S.; Babu, M.T.; Vethamony, P.

    water in the marine environment. The bathymetry of the region has been taken from the CMAP data and augmented by data from hydrographic charts and bathymetry data available at NIO Data Center, Goa. Tides along the open boundary were generated...

  5. Development and validation of a drinking water temperature model in domestic drinking water supply systems

    OpenAIRE

    Zlatanovic, Ljiljana; Moerman, Andreas; Hoek, van der, Jan Peter; Vreeburg, Jan; Blokker, Mirjam

    2017-01-01

    Domestic drinking water supply systems (DDWSs) are the final step in the delivery of drinking water to consumers. Temperature is one of the rate-controlling parameters for many chemical and microbiological processes and is, therefore, considered as a surrogate parameter for water quality processes. In this study, a mathematical model is presented that predicts temperature dynamics of the drinking water in DDWSs. A full-scale DDWS resembling a conventional system was built and run according to...

  6. Estimating water retention curves and strength properties of unsaturated sandy soils from basic soil gradation parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ji-Peng; Hu, Nian; François, Bertrand; Lambert, Pierre

    2017-07-01

    This study proposed two pedotransfer functions (PTFs) to estimate sandy soil water retention curves. It is based on the van Genuchten's water retention model and from a semiphysical and semistatistical approach. Basic gradation parameters of d60 as particle size at 60% passing and the coefficient of uniformity Cu are employed in the PTFs with two idealized conditions, the monosized scenario and the extremely polydisperse condition, satisfied. Water retention tests are carried out on eight granular materials with narrow particle size distributions as supplementary data of the UNSODA database. The air entry value is expressed as inversely proportional to d60 and the parameter n, which is related to slope of water retention curve, is a function of Cu. The proposed PTFs, although have fewer parameters, have better fitness than previous PTFs for sandy soils. Furthermore, by incorporating with the suction stress definition, the proposed pedotransfer functions are imbedded in shear strength equations which provide a way to estimate capillary induced tensile strength or cohesion at a certain suction or degree of saturation from basic soil gradation parameters. The estimation shows quantitative agreement with experimental data in literature, and it also explains that the capillary-induced cohesion is generally higher for materials with finer mean particle size or higher polydispersity.

  7. Evaluation of Empirical and Machine Learning Algorithms for Estimation of Coastal Water Quality Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Majid Nazeer

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Coastal waters are one of the most vulnerable resources that require effective monitoring programs. One of the key factors for effective coastal monitoring is the use of remote sensing technologies that significantly capture the spatiotemporal variability of coastal waters. Optical properties of coastal waters are strongly linked to components, such as colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM, chlorophyll-a (Chl-a, and suspended solids (SS concentrations, which are essential for the survival of a coastal ecosystem and usually independent of each other. Thus, developing effective remote sensing models to estimate these important water components based on optical properties of coastal waters is mandatory for a successful coastal monitoring program. This study attempted to evaluate the performance of empirical predictive models (EPM and neural networks (NN-based algorithms to estimate Chl-a and SS concentrations, in the coastal area of Hong Kong. Remotely-sensed data over a 13-year period was used to develop regional and local models to estimate Chl-a and SS over the entire Hong Kong waters and for each water class within the study area, respectively. The accuracy of regional models derived from EPM and NN in estimating Chl-a and SS was 83%, 93%, 78%, and 97%, respectively, whereas the accuracy of local models in estimating Chl-a and SS ranged from 60–94% and 81–94%, respectively. Both the regional and local NN models exhibited a higher performance than those models derived from empirical analysis. Thus, this study suggests using machine learning methods (i.e., NN for the more accurate and efficient routine monitoring of coastal water quality parameters (i.e., Chl-a and SS concentrations over the complex coastal area of Hong Kong and other similar coastal environments.

  8. Microbial Communities Model Parameter Calculation for TSPA/SR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D. Jolley

    2001-07-16

    This calculation has several purposes. First the calculation reduces the information contained in ''Committed Materials in Repository Drifts'' (BSC 2001a) to useable parameters required as input to MING V1.O (CRWMS M&O 1998, CSCI 30018 V1.O) for calculation of the effects of potential in-drift microbial communities as part of the microbial communities model. The calculation is intended to replace the parameters found in Attachment II of the current In-Drift Microbial Communities Model revision (CRWMS M&O 2000c) with the exception of Section 11-5.3. Second, this calculation provides the information necessary to supercede the following DTN: M09909SPAMING1.003 and replace it with a new qualified dataset (see Table 6.2-1). The purpose of this calculation is to create the revised qualified parameter input for MING that will allow {Delta}G (Gibbs Free Energy) to be corrected for long-term changes to the temperature of the near-field environment. Calculated herein are the quadratic or second order regression relationships that are used in the energy limiting calculations to potential growth of microbial communities in the in-drift geochemical environment. Third, the calculation performs an impact review of a new DTN: M00012MAJIONIS.000 that is intended to replace the currently cited DTN: GS9809083 12322.008 for water chemistry data used in the current ''In-Drift Microbial Communities Model'' revision (CRWMS M&O 2000c). Finally, the calculation updates the material lifetimes reported on Table 32 in section 6.5.2.3 of the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' AMR (CRWMS M&O 2000c) based on the inputs reported in BSC (2001a). Changes include adding new specified materials and updating old materials information that has changed.

  9. Microbial Communities Model Parameter Calculation for TSPA/SR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D. Jolley

    2001-01-01

    This calculation has several purposes. First the calculation reduces the information contained in ''Committed Materials in Repository Drifts'' (BSC 2001a) to useable parameters required as input to MING V1.O (CRWMS M and O 1998, CSCI 30018 V1.O) for calculation of the effects of potential in-drift microbial communities as part of the microbial communities model. The calculation is intended to replace the parameters found in Attachment II of the current In-Drift Microbial Communities Model revision (CRWMS M and O 2000c) with the exception of Section 11-5.3. Second, this calculation provides the information necessary to supercede the following DTN: M09909SPAMING1.003 and replace it with a new qualified dataset (see Table 6.2-1). The purpose of this calculation is to create the revised qualified parameter input for MING that will allow ΔG (Gibbs Free Energy) to be corrected for long-term changes to the temperature of the near-field environment. Calculated herein are the quadratic or second order regression relationships that are used in the energy limiting calculations to potential growth of microbial communities in the in-drift geochemical environment. Third, the calculation performs an impact review of a new DTN: M00012MAJIONIS.000 that is intended to replace the currently cited DTN: GS9809083 12322.008 for water chemistry data used in the current ''In-Drift Microbial Communities Model'' revision (CRWMS M and O 2000c). Finally, the calculation updates the material lifetimes reported on Table 32 in section 6.5.2.3 of the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' AMR (CRWMS M and O 2000c) based on the inputs reported in BSC (2001a). Changes include adding new specified materials and updating old materials information that has changed

  10. Identifying the connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Guse

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In hydrological models, parameters are used to represent the time-invariant characteristics of catchments and to capture different aspects of hydrological response. Hence, model parameters need to be identified based on their role in controlling the hydrological behaviour. For the identification of meaningful parameter values, multiple and complementary performance criteria are used that compare modelled and measured discharge time series. The reliability of the identification of hydrologically meaningful model parameter values depends on how distinctly a model parameter can be assigned to one of the performance criteria. To investigate this, we introduce the new concept of connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria. The connective strength assesses the intensity in the interrelationship between model parameters and performance criteria in a bijective way. In our analysis of connective strength, model simulations are carried out based on a latin hypercube sampling. Ten performance criteria including Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE, Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE and its three components (alpha, beta and r as well as RSR (the ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation for different segments of the flow duration curve (FDC are calculated. With a joint analysis of two regression tree (RT approaches, we derive how a model parameter is connected to different performance criteria. At first, RTs are constructed using each performance criterion as the target variable to detect the most relevant model parameters for each performance criterion. Secondly, RTs are constructed using each parameter as the target variable to detect which performance criteria are impacted by changes in the values of one distinct model parameter. Based on this, appropriate performance criteria are identified for each model parameter. In this study, a high bijective connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria

  11. Influence of Space-Time Heterogeneity of Water Consumption Conditions on the Parameters of a Water Supply System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogiołda, Ewa; Nowogoński, Ireneusz; Babiuch, Maciej

    2017-03-01

    The work presents the results of the analysis of an existing water supply system. It contains a description of the analysed area in which the analysed system was located, as well as its parameters regarding water intakes and transport of water with pumps, the length and diameter of pipes, and a complication of the materials used to construct the network. Water demand accounting for the nature of the consumers using the water supply network was subject to analysis. The influence of changes in the distribution of water within a day for the basic categories of recipients was accounted for. The EPANET 2.0 program for the simulating water supply network operation, made available by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency through a public-domain licence, was used to construct the model of the system. The obtained results of the simulation allowed for indicating the main problems with the use of the analysed system. Subject to analysis was the pressure pattern in characteristic nodes of the network from which mining companies, industrial plants and residential households were supplied. Usefulness of the developed simulation model in preparing the assessment of future modernization works was confirmed, allowing for the effects of their implementation to be assessed.

  12. Quantifying the Effect of Soil Water Repellency on Infiltration Parameters Using a Dry Sand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shillito, R.; Berli, M.; Ghezzehei, T. A.; Kaminski, E.

    2017-12-01

    Water infiltration into less than perfectly wettable soils has usually been considered an exceptional case—in fact, it may be the rule. Infiltration into soils exhibiting some degree of water repellency has important implications in agricultural irrigation, post-fire runoff, golf course and landscape management, and spill and contaminant mitigation. Beginning from fundamental principles, we developed a physically-based model to quantify the effect of water repellency on infiltration parameters. Experimentally, we used a dry silica sand and treated it to achieve various known degrees of water repellency. The model was verified using data gathered from multiple upward infiltration (wicking) experiments using the treated sand. The model also allowed us to explore the effect of initial soil moisture conditions on infiltration into water-repellent soils, and the physical interpretation of the simple water drop penetration time test. These results provide a fundamental step in the physically-based understanding of how water infiltrates into a less than perfectly wettable porous media.

  13. Summary of the DREAM8 Parameter Estimation Challenge: Toward Parameter Identification for Whole-Cell Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan R Karr

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Whole-cell models that explicitly represent all cellular components at the molecular level have the potential to predict phenotype from genotype. However, even for simple bacteria, whole-cell models will contain thousands of parameters, many of which are poorly characterized or unknown. New algorithms are needed to estimate these parameters and enable researchers to build increasingly comprehensive models. We organized the Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods (DREAM 8 Whole-Cell Parameter Estimation Challenge to develop new parameter estimation algorithms for whole-cell models. We asked participants to identify a subset of parameters of a whole-cell model given the model's structure and in silico "experimental" data. Here we describe the challenge, the best performing methods, and new insights into the identifiability of whole-cell models. We also describe several valuable lessons we learned toward improving future challenges. Going forward, we believe that collaborative efforts supported by inexpensive cloud computing have the potential to solve whole-cell model parameter estimation.

  14. Estimation of Kinetic Parameters in an Automotive SCR Catalyst Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Åberg, Andreas; Widd, Anders; Abildskov, Jens

    2016-01-01

    A challenge during the development of models for simulation of the automotive Selective Catalytic Reduction catalyst is the parameter estimation of the kinetic parameters, which can be time consuming and problematic. The parameter estimation is often carried out on small-scale reactor tests...

  15. Experimental critical parameters of plutonium metal cylinders flooded with water

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-07-01

    Forty-nine critical configurations are reported for experiments involving arrays of 3 kg plutonium metal cylinders moderated and reflected by water. Thirty-four of these describe systems assembled in the laboratory, while 15 others are derived critical parameters inferred from 46 subcritical cases. The arrays included 2x2xN, N = 2, 3, 4, and 5, in one program and 3x3x3 configurations in a later study. All were three-dimensional, nearly square arrays with equal horizontal lattice spacings but a different vertical lattice spacing. Horizontal spacings ranged from units in contact to 180 mm center-to-center; and vertical spacings ranged from about 80 mm to almost 400 mm center-to-center. Several nearly-equilateral 3x3x3 arrays exhibit an extremely sensitive dependence upon horizontal separation for identical vertical spacings. A line array of unreflected and essentially unmoderated canned plutonium metal units appeared to be well subcritical based on measurements made to assure safety during the manual assembly operations. All experiments were performed at two widely separated times in the mid-1970s and early 1980s under two programs at the Rocky Flats Plant`s Critical Mass Laboratory.

  16. Experimental critical parameters of plutonium metal cylinders flooded with water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-07-01

    Forty-nine critical configurations are reported for experiments involving arrays of 3 kg plutonium metal cylinders moderated and reflected by water. Thirty-four of these describe systems assembled in the laboratory, while 15 others are derived critical parameters inferred from 46 subcritical cases. The arrays included 2x2xN, N = 2, 3, 4, and 5, in one program and 3x3x3 configurations in a later study. All were three-dimensional, nearly square arrays with equal horizontal lattice spacings but a different vertical lattice spacing. Horizontal spacings ranged from units in contact to 180 mm center-to-center; and vertical spacings ranged from about 80 mm to almost 400 mm center-to-center. Several nearly-equilateral 3x3x3 arrays exhibit an extremely sensitive dependence upon horizontal separation for identical vertical spacings. A line array of unreflected and essentially unmoderated canned plutonium metal units appeared to be well subcritical based on measurements made to assure safety during the manual assembly operations. All experiments were performed at two widely separated times in the mid-1970s and early 1980s under two programs at the Rocky Flats Plant's Critical Mass Laboratory

  17. Edge Modeling by Two Blur Parameters in Varying Contrasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Suyoung

    2018-06-01

    This paper presents a method of modeling edge profiles with two blur parameters, and estimating and predicting those edge parameters with varying brightness combinations and camera-to-object distances (COD). First, the validity of the edge model is proven mathematically. Then, it is proven experimentally with edges from a set of images captured for specifically designed target sheets and with edges from natural images. Estimation of the two blur parameters for each observed edge profile is performed with a brute-force method to find parameters that produce global minimum errors. Then, using the estimated blur parameters, actual blur parameters of edges with arbitrary brightness combinations are predicted using a surface interpolation method (i.e., kriging). The predicted surfaces show that the two blur parameters of the proposed edge model depend on both dark-side edge brightness and light-side edge brightness following a certain global trend. This is similar across varying CODs. The proposed edge model is compared with a one-blur parameter edge model using experiments of the root mean squared error for fitting the edge models to each observed edge profile. The comparison results suggest that the proposed edge model has superiority over the one-blur parameter edge model in most cases where edges have varying brightness combinations.

  18. Sensitivity of Calibrated Parameters and Water Resource Estimates on Different Objective Functions and Optimization Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Delaram Houshmand Kouchi

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The successful application of hydrological models relies on careful calibration and uncertainty analysis. However, there are many different calibration/uncertainty analysis algorithms, and each could be run with different objective functions. In this paper, we highlight the fact that each combination of optimization algorithm-objective functions may lead to a different set of optimum parameters, while having the same performance; this makes the interpretation of dominant hydrological processes in a watershed highly uncertain. We used three different optimization algorithms (SUFI-2, GLUE, and PSO, and eight different objective functions (R2, bR2, NSE, MNS, RSR, SSQR, KGE, and PBIAS in a SWAT model to calibrate the monthly discharges in two watersheds in Iran. The results show that all three algorithms, using the same objective function, produced acceptable calibration results; however, with significantly different parameter ranges. Similarly, an algorithm using different objective functions also produced acceptable calibration results, but with different parameter ranges. The different calibrated parameter ranges consequently resulted in significantly different water resource estimates. Hence, the parameters and the outputs that they produce in a calibrated model are “conditioned” on the choices of the optimization algorithm and objective function. This adds another level of non-negligible uncertainty to watershed models, calling for more attention and investigation in this area.

  19. Estimation of Parameters in Latent Class Models with Constraints on the Parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulson, James A.

    This paper reviews the application of the EM Algorithm to marginal maximum likelihood estimation of parameters in the latent class model and extends the algorithm to the case where there are monotone homogeneity constraints on the item parameters. It is shown that the EM algorithm can be used to obtain marginal maximum likelihood estimates of the…

  20. Ground water modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leino-Forsman, H.; Olin, M.

    1991-01-01

    The first Seminar on Groundwater Modelling was arranged by VTT (Reactor Laboratory) in Espoo Finland in May 1991. The one day seminar dealt both with modelling of geochemistry and transport of groundwater, as well as mathematical methods for modelling. The seminar concentrated on giving a broad picture of the applications of groundwater modelling e.g. nuclear waste, groundwater resources including artificial groundwater and pollution. The participants came from research institutes and universities as well as engineering companies. Articles are published in Finnish with English abstracts

  1. Stochastic Still Water Response Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Friis-Hansen, Peter; Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

    2002-01-01

    water bending moment is compared to statistics from available regression formulas. It is found that the suggested model predicts a coefficient of variation of the maximum still water bending moment that is a factor of two to three times lower than that obtained by use of the regression formula. It turns......In this study a stochastic field model for the still water loading is formulated where the statistics (mean value, standard deviation, and correlation) of the sectional forces are obtained by integration of the load field over the relevant part of the ship structure. The objective of the model...

  2. Incremental parameter estimation of kinetic metabolic network models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia Gengjie

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An efficient and reliable parameter estimation method is essential for the creation of biological models using ordinary differential equation (ODE. Most of the existing estimation methods involve finding the global minimum of data fitting residuals over the entire parameter space simultaneously. Unfortunately, the associated computational requirement often becomes prohibitively high due to the large number of parameters and the lack of complete parameter identifiability (i.e. not all parameters can be uniquely identified. Results In this work, an incremental approach was applied to the parameter estimation of ODE models from concentration time profiles. Particularly, the method was developed to address a commonly encountered circumstance in the modeling of metabolic networks, where the number of metabolic fluxes (reaction rates exceeds that of metabolites (chemical species. Here, the minimization of model residuals was performed over a subset of the parameter space that is associated with the degrees of freedom in the dynamic flux estimation from the concentration time-slopes. The efficacy of this method was demonstrated using two generalized mass action (GMA models, where the method significantly outperformed single-step estimations. In addition, an extension of the estimation method to handle missing data is also presented. Conclusions The proposed incremental estimation method is able to tackle the issue on the lack of complete parameter identifiability and to significantly reduce the computational efforts in estimating model parameters, which will facilitate kinetic modeling of genome-scale cellular metabolism in the future.

  3. Modeling Water Filtration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parks, Melissa

    2014-01-01

    Model-eliciting activities (MEAs) are not new to those in engineering or mathematics, but they were new to Melissa Parks. Model-eliciting activities are simulated real-world problems that integrate engineering, mathematical, and scientific thinking as students find solutions for specific scenarios. During this process, students generate solutions…

  4. An approach to adjustment of relativistic mean field model parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bayram Tuncay

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The Relativistic Mean Field (RMF model with a small number of adjusted parameters is powerful tool for correct predictions of various ground-state nuclear properties of nuclei. Its success for describing nuclear properties of nuclei is directly related with adjustment of its parameters by using experimental data. In the present study, the Artificial Neural Network (ANN method which mimics brain functionality has been employed for improvement of the RMF model parameters. In particular, the understanding capability of the ANN method for relations between the RMF model parameters and their predictions for binding energies (BEs of 58Ni and 208Pb have been found in agreement with the literature values.

  5. Lumped parameter models for the interpretation of environmental tracer data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maloszewski, P.; Zuber, A.

    1996-01-01

    Principles of the lumped-parameter approach to the interpretation of environmental tracer data are given. The following models are considered: the piston flow model (PFM), exponential flow model (EM), linear model (LM), combined piston flow and exponential flow model (EPM), combined linear flow and piston flow model (LPM), and dispersion model (DM). The applicability of these models for the interpretation of different tracer data is discussed for a steady state flow approximation. Case studies are given to exemplify the applicability of the lumped-parameter approach. Description of a user-friendly computer program is given. (author). 68 refs, 25 figs, 4 tabs

  6. Corruption of parameter behavior and regionalization by model and forcing data errors: A Bayesian example using the SNOW17 model

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Minxue; Hogue, Terri S.; Franz, Kristie J.; Margulis, Steven A.; Vrugt, Jasper A.

    2011-07-01

    The current study evaluates the impacts of various sources of uncertainty involved in hydrologic modeling on parameter behavior and regionalization utilizing different Bayesian likelihood functions and the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm. The developed likelihood functions differ in their underlying assumptions and treatment of error sources. We apply the developed method to a snow accumulation and ablation model (National Weather Service SNOW17) and generate parameter ensembles to predict snow water equivalent (SWE). Observational data include precipitation and air temperature forcing along with SWE measurements from 24 sites with diverse hydroclimatic characteristics. A multiple linear regression model is used to construct regionalization relationships between model parameters and site characteristics. Results indicate that model structural uncertainty has the largest influence on SNOW17 parameter behavior. Precipitation uncertainty is the second largest source of uncertainty, showing greater impact at wetter sites. Measurement uncertainty in SWE tends to have little impact on the final model parameters and resulting SWE predictions. Considering all sources of uncertainty, parameters related to air temperature and snowfall fraction exhibit the strongest correlations to site characteristics. Parameters related to the length of the melting period also show high correlation to site characteristics. Finally, model structural uncertainty and precipitation uncertainty dramatically alter parameter regionalization relationships in comparison to cases where only uncertainty in model parameters or output measurements is considered. Our results demonstrate that accurate treatment of forcing, parameter, model structural, and calibration data errors is critical for deriving robust regionalization relationships.

  7. WATER QUALITY MODELS: A REVIEW

    OpenAIRE

    Nair Sumita; Bhatia Sukhpreet Kaur

    2017-01-01

    Maintaining water quality and predicting the fate of water pollutants are one of the important tasks of present environmental problems. The best tool for predicting different pollution scenarios are the simulation of mathematical models which can provide a basis and technical support for environmental management.

  8. A test for the parameters of multiple linear regression models ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A test for the parameters of multiple linear regression models is developed for conducting tests simultaneously on all the parameters of multiple linear regression models. The test is robust relative to the assumptions of homogeneity of variances and absence of serial correlation of the classical F-test. Under certain null and ...

  9. Exploring the interdependencies between parameters in a material model.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silling, Stewart Andrew; Fermen-Coker, Muge

    2014-01-01

    A method is investigated to reduce the number of numerical parameters in a material model for a solid. The basis of the method is to detect interdependencies between parameters within a class of materials of interest. The method is demonstrated for a set of material property data for iron and steel using the Johnson-Cook plasticity model.

  10. Error propagation of partial least squares for parameters optimization in NIR modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Chenzhao; Dai, Shengyun; Qiao, Yanjiang; Wu, Zhisheng

    2018-03-01

    A novel methodology is proposed to determine the error propagation of partial least-square (PLS) for parameters optimization in near-infrared (NIR) modeling. The parameters include spectral pretreatment, latent variables and variable selection. In this paper, an open source dataset (corn) and a complicated dataset (Gardenia) were used to establish PLS models under different modeling parameters. And error propagation of modeling parameters for water quantity in corn and geniposide quantity in Gardenia were presented by both type І and type II error. For example, when variable importance in the projection (VIP), interval partial least square (iPLS) and backward interval partial least square (BiPLS) variable selection algorithms were used for geniposide in Gardenia, compared with synergy interval partial least squares (SiPLS), the error weight varied from 5% to 65%, 55% and 15%. The results demonstrated how and what extent the different modeling parameters affect error propagation of PLS for parameters optimization in NIR modeling. The larger the error weight, the worse the model. Finally, our trials finished a powerful process in developing robust PLS models for corn and Gardenia under the optimal modeling parameters. Furthermore, it could provide a significant guidance for the selection of modeling parameters of other multivariate calibration models.

  11. Regionalization of SWAT Model Parameters for Use in Ungauged Watersheds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Indrajeet Chaubey

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available There has been a steady shift towards modeling and model-based approaches as primary methods of assessing watershed response to hydrologic inputs and land management, and of quantifying watershed-wide best management practice (BMP effectiveness. Watershed models often require some degree of calibration and validation to achieve adequate watershed and therefore BMP representation. This is, however, only possible for gauged watersheds. There are many watersheds for which there are very little or no monitoring data available, thus the question as to whether it would be possible to extend and/or generalize model parameters obtained through calibration of gauged watersheds to ungauged watersheds within the same region. This study explored the possibility of developing regionalized model parameter sets for use in ungauged watersheds. The study evaluated two regionalization methods: global averaging, and regression-based parameters, on the SWAT model using data from priority watersheds in Arkansas. Resulting parameters were tested and model performance determined on three gauged watersheds. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (NS for stream flow obtained using regression-based parameters (0.53–0.83 compared well with corresponding values obtained through model calibration (0.45–0.90. Model performance obtained using global averaged parameter values was also generally acceptable (0.4 ≤ NS ≤ 0.75. Results from this study indicate that regionalized parameter sets for the SWAT model can be obtained and used for making satisfactory hydrologic response predictions in ungauged watersheds.

  12. Solubility of Methane, Ethane, and Propane in Pure Water Using New Binary Interaction Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masoud Behrouz

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Solubility of hydrocarbons in water is important due to ecological concerns and new restrictions on the existence of organic pollutants in water streams. Also, the creation of a thermodynamic model has required an advanced study of the phase equilibrium between water (as a basis for the widest spread muds and amines and gas hydrocarbon phases in wide temperature and pressure ranges. Therefore, it is of great interest to develop semi-empirical correlations, charts, or thermodynamic models for estimating the solubility of hydrocarbons in liquid water. In this work, a thermodynamic model based on Mathias modification of Sova-Redlich-Kwong (SRK equation of state is suggested using classical mixing rules with new binary interaction parameters which were used for two-component systems of hydrocarbons and water. Finally, the model results and their deviations in comparison with the experimental data are presented; these deviations were equal to 5.27, 6.06, and 4.1% for methane, ethane, and propane respectively.

  13. Bayesian estimation of parameters in a regional hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Engeland

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the applicability of the distributed, process-oriented Ecomag model for prediction of daily streamflow in ungauged basins. The Ecomag model is applied as a regional model to nine catchments in the NOPEX area, using Bayesian statistics to estimate the posterior distribution of the model parameters conditioned on the observed streamflow. The distribution is calculated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC analysis. The Bayesian method requires formulation of a likelihood function for the parameters and three alternative formulations are used. The first is a subjectively chosen objective function that describes the goodness of fit between the simulated and observed streamflow, as defined in the GLUE framework. The second and third formulations are more statistically correct likelihood models that describe the simulation errors. The full statistical likelihood model describes the simulation errors as an AR(1 process, whereas the simple model excludes the auto-regressive part. The statistical parameters depend on the catchments and the hydrological processes and the statistical and the hydrological parameters are estimated simultaneously. The results show that the simple likelihood model gives the most robust parameter estimates. The simulation error may be explained to a large extent by the catchment characteristics and climatic conditions, so it is possible to transfer knowledge about them to ungauged catchments. The statistical models for the simulation errors indicate that structural errors in the model are more important than parameter uncertainties. Keywords: regional hydrological model, model uncertainty, Bayesian analysis, Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis

  14. Brownian motion model with stochastic parameters for asset prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ching, Soo Huei; Hin, Pooi Ah

    2013-09-01

    The Brownian motion model may not be a completely realistic model for asset prices because in real asset prices the drift μ and volatility σ may change over time. Presently we consider a model in which the parameter x = (μ,σ) is such that its value x (t + Δt) at a short time Δt ahead of the present time t depends on the value of the asset price at time t + Δt as well as the present parameter value x(t) and m-1 other parameter values before time t via a conditional distribution. The Malaysian stock prices are used to compare the performance of the Brownian motion model with fixed parameter with that of the model with stochastic parameter.

  15. Estimation of shape model parameters for 3D surfaces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Erbou, Søren Gylling Hemmingsen; Darkner, Sune; Fripp, Jurgen

    2008-01-01

    is applied to a database of 3D surfaces from a section of the porcine pelvic bone extracted from 33 CT scans. A leave-one-out validation shows that the parameters of the first 3 modes of the shape model can be predicted with a mean difference within [-0.01,0.02] from the true mean, with a standard deviation......Statistical shape models are widely used as a compact way of representing shape variation. Fitting a shape model to unseen data enables characterizing the data in terms of the model parameters. In this paper a Gauss-Newton optimization scheme is proposed to estimate shape model parameters of 3D...... surfaces using distance maps, which enables the estimation of model parameters without the requirement of point correspondence. For applications with acquisition limitations such as speed and cost, this formulation enables the fitting of a statistical shape model to arbitrarily sampled data. The method...

  16. Aturan Asosiasi Dengan Standar Storet Pada Model Prediksi Parameter Pendukung Uji Kualitas Air Baku

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana Purwitasari

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Raw Water (Air Baku laboratory analysis is testing physical, chemical and bacteriological characteristicsof water to ensure that water supply is clean, safe and ready for drinking water quality. Analyzing raw water quality in laboratorium needs more time. The proposed system could shorten the laboratory processing time by analyzing daily water production log. Association ruleinthe proposed system was used to generate relation model of water characteristicsfrom the data log provided by local government owned water utilities (PDAM, Perusahaan Daerah Air Minum. The data was transformed first from numerical data into categorical data using STOrage and RETrieval Data Warehouse (STORETstandard.Generated model needs to be simplified because some prediction rules could have the same interpretation. The generated parameter prediction modelwas sufficient to be used as the supporting data for any local policy made related to water supply and sanitationwithout additional costs from standard lab testing of water quality. Some water quality values of chemical characteristics need lab testing. Given the missing values of several chemical characteristics, the generated parameter prediction model still could give better accuracy of 80%-95%. Since PDAM staffmanually validated the generated model, the experiments used small data set.

  17. Comprehensive study on parameter sensitivity for flow and nutrient modeling in the Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Chuan; Li, Zhaofu; Wu, Min; Jiang, Kaixia; Chen, Xiaomin; Li, Hengpeng

    2017-09-01

    Numerous parameters are used to construct the HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran) model, which results in significant difficulty in calibrating the model. Parameter sensitivity analysis is an efficient method to identify important model parameters. Through this method, a model's calibration process can be simplified on the basis of understanding the model's structure. This study investigated the sensitivity of the flow and nutrient parameters of HSPF using the DSA (differential sensitivity analysis) method in the Xitiaoxi watershed, China. The results showed that flow was mostly affected by parameters related to groundwater and evapotranspiration, including DEEPFR (fraction of groundwater inflow to deep recharge), LZETP (lower-zone evapotranspiration parameter), and AGWRC (base groundwater recession), and most of the sensitive parameters had negative and nonlinear effects on flow. Additionally, nutrient components were commonly affected by parameters from land processes, including MON-SQOLIM (monthly values limiting storage of water quality in overland flow), MON-ACCUM (monthly values of accumulation), MON-IFLW-CONC (monthly concentration of water quality in interflow), and MON-GRND-CONC (monthly concentration of water quality in active groundwater). Besides, parameters from river systems, KATM20 (unit oxidation rate of total ammonia at 20 °C) had a negative and almost linear effect on ammonia concentration and MALGR (maximal unit algal growth rate for phytoplankton) had a negative and nonlinear effect on ammonia and orthophosphate concentrations. After calibrating these sensitive parameters, our model performed well for simulating flow and nutrient outputs, with R 2 and E NS (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency) both greater than 0.75 for flow and greater than 0.5 for nutrient components. This study is expected to serve as a valuable complement to the documentation of the HSPF model to help users identify key parameters and provide a reference for performing

  18. Determination of the Corona model parameters with artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmet, Nayir; Bekir, Karlik; Arif, Hashimov

    2005-01-01

    Full text : The aim of this study is to calculate new model parameters taking into account the corona of electrical transmission line wires. For this purpose, a neural network modeling proposed for the corona frequent characteristics modeling. Then this model was compared with the other model developed at the Polytechnic Institute of Saint Petersburg. The results of development of the specified corona model for calculation of its influence on the wave processes in multi-wires line and determination of its parameters are submitted. Results of obtained calculation equations are brought for electrical transmission line with allowance for superficial effect in the ground and wires with reference to developed corona model

  19. Spatio-temporal modeling of nonlinear distributed parameter systems

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Han-Xiong

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this volume is to provide a brief review of the previous work on model reduction and identifi cation of distributed parameter systems (DPS), and develop new spatio-temporal models and their relevant identifi cation approaches. In this book, a systematic overview and classifi cation on the modeling of DPS is presented fi rst, which includes model reduction, parameter estimation and system identifi cation. Next, a class of block-oriented nonlinear systems in traditional lumped parameter systems (LPS) is extended to DPS, which results in the spatio-temporal Wiener and Hammerstein s

  20. Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Henrik; Johansen, Søren

    1999-01-01

    Some methods for the evaluation of parameter constancy in vector autoregressive (VAR) models are discussed. Two different ways of re-estimating the VAR model are proposed; one in which all parameters are estimated recursively based upon the likelihood function for the first observations, and anot...... be applied to test the constancy of the long-run parameters in the cointegrated VAR-model. All results are illustrated using a model for the term structure of interest rates on US Treasury securities. ...

  1. Water Stress Projection Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-01

    www.eia.gov/ forecasts /aeo/tables_ref.cfm U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). 2014. National land cover database (NLCD). Multi - Resolution Land...Engineers Washington, DC 20314-1000 ERDC/CERL TR-16-32 ii Abstract U.S. Army stationing is a constant multi -scale process. Large scale station- ing, which...20 4.6 Model output

  2. Evaluation of physico-chemical and microbial parameters on water ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Microsoft Windows

    microbial analysis was also conducted in terms of most probable number (MPN) of total coliforms in water sample and its highest value ... meter for the sanitary analysis of water. The test is used to detect coliforms, a ..... Brown RM, Mc Cleiland NJ, Deininger RA, O'Connor MF (1972). A. Water Quality Index-crossing the ...

  3. Water deficit effects on morpho-physiologicals parameters in durum ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Various morpho-physiological characters related to the water deficit (relative water content, rate water loss, stomatal density, stomatal resistance), were studied at five durum wheat genotypes under two hydrous conditions. The relationship between traits and adaptative strategies develops by each genotype have been ...

  4. Parameters Estimation of Geographically Weighted Ordinal Logistic Regression (GWOLR) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuhdi, Shaifudin; Retno Sari Saputro, Dewi; Widyaningsih, Purnami

    2017-06-01

    A regression model is the representation of relationship between independent variable and dependent variable. The dependent variable has categories used in the logistic regression model to calculate odds on. The logistic regression model for dependent variable has levels in the logistics regression model is ordinal. GWOLR model is an ordinal logistic regression model influenced the geographical location of the observation site. Parameters estimation in the model needed to determine the value of a population based on sample. The purpose of this research is to parameters estimation of GWOLR model using R software. Parameter estimation uses the data amount of dengue fever patients in Semarang City. Observation units used are 144 villages in Semarang City. The results of research get GWOLR model locally for each village and to know probability of number dengue fever patient categories.

  5. Modeling and Parameter Estimation of a Small Wind Generation System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos A. Ramírez Gómez

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The modeling and parameter estimation of a small wind generation system is presented in this paper. The system consists of a wind turbine, a permanent magnet synchronous generator, a three phase rectifier, and a direct current load. In order to estimate the parameters wind speed data are registered in a weather station located in the Fraternidad Campus at ITM. Wind speed data were applied to a reference model programed with PSIM software. From that simulation, variables were registered to estimate the parameters. The wind generation system model together with the estimated parameters is an excellent representation of the detailed model, but the estimated model offers a higher flexibility than the programed model in PSIM software.

  6. Criticality parameters for uranyl nitrate or plutonium nitrate systems in tributyl phosphate/kerosine and water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weber, W.

    1985-01-01

    This report presents the calculated values of smallest critical masses and volumina and neutron physical parameters for uranyl nitrate (3, 4, 5% U-235) or plutonium nitrate (5% Pu-240), each in a 30 per cent solution of tributyl phosphate (TBP)/kerosine. For the corresponding nitrate-water solutions, newly calculated results are presented together with a revised solution density model. A comparison of the data shows to what extent the criticality of nitrate-TBP/kerosine systems can be assessed on the basis of nitrate-water parameters, revealing that such data can be applied to uranyl nitrate/water systems, taking into account that the smallest critical mass of uranyl nitrate-TBP/kerosine systems, up to a 5 p.c. U-235 enrichment, is by 4.5 p.c. at the most smaller than that of UNH-water solutions. Plutonium nitrate (5% Pu-240) in the TBP/kerosine solution will have a smallest critical mass of up to 7 p.c. smaller, as compared with the water data. The suitability of the computing methods and cross-sections used is verified by recalculating experiments carried out to determine the lowest critical enrichment of uranyl nitrate. The calculated results are well in agreement with experimental data. The lowest critical enrichment is calculated to be 2.10 p.c. in the isotope U-235. (orig.) [de

  7. More grain per drop of water: Screening rice genotype for physiological parameters of drought tolerance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massanelli, J.; Meadows-McDonnell, M.; Konzelman, C.; Moon, J. B.; Kumar, A.; Thomas, J.; Pereira, A.; Naithani, K. J.

    2016-12-01

    Meeting agricultural water demands is becoming progressively difficult due to population growth and changes in climate. Breeding stress-resilient crops is a viable solution, as information about genetic variation and their role in stress tolerance is becoming available due to advancement in technology. In this study we screened eight diverse rice genotypes for photosynthetic capacity under greenhouse conditions. These include the Asian rice (Oryza sativa) genotypes, drought sensitive Nipponbare, and a transgenic line overexpressing the HYR gene in Nipponbare; six genotypes (Vandana, Bengal, Nagina-22, Glaberrima, Kaybonnet, Ai Chueh Ta Pai Ku) and an African rice O. glaberrima, all selected for varying levels of drought tolerance. We collected CO2 and light response curve data under well-watered and simulated drought conditions in greenhouse. From these curves we estimated photosynthesis model parameters, such as the maximum carboxylation rate (Vcmax), the maximum electron transport rate (Jmax), the maximum gross photosynthesis rate, daytime respiration (Rd), and quantum yield (f). Our results suggest that O. glaberrima and Nipponbare were the most sensitive to drought because Vcmax and Pgmax declined under drought conditions; other drought tolerant genotypes did not show significant changes in these model parameters. Our integrated approach, combining genetic information and photosynthesis modeling, shows promise to quantify drought response parameters and improve crop yield under drought stress conditions.

  8. Do Lumped-Parameter Models Provide the Correct Geometrical Damping?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars

    2007-01-01

    This paper concerns the formulation of lumped-parameter models for rigid footings on homogenous or stratified soil with focus on the horizontal sliding and rocking. Such models only contain a few degrees of freedom, which makes them ideal for inclusion in aero-elastic codes for wind turbines......-parameter models with respect to the prediction of the maximum response during excitation and the geometrical damping related to free vibrations of a footing....

  9. Estimation of water retention parameters from nuclear magnetic resonance relaxation time distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costabel, Stephan; Yaramanci, Ugur

    2013-04-01

    [1] For characterizing water flow in the vadose zone, the water retention curve (WRC) of the soil must be known. Because conventional WRC measurements demand much time and effort in the laboratory, alternative methods with shortened measurement duration are desired. The WRC can be estimated, for instance, from the cumulative pore size distribution (PSD) of the investigated material. Geophysical applications of nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) relaxometry have successfully been applied to recover PSDs of sandstones and limestones. It is therefore expected that the multiexponential analysis of the NMR signal from water-saturated loose sediments leads to a reliable estimation of the WRC. We propose an approach to estimate the WRC using the cumulative NMR relaxation time distribution and approximate it with the well-known van-Genuchten (VG) model. Thereby, the VG parameter n , which controls the curvature of the WRC, is of particular interest, because it is the essential parameter to predict the relative hydraulic conductivity. The NMR curves are calibrated with only two conventional WRC measurements, first, to determine the residual water content and, second, to define a fixed point that relates the relaxation time to a corresponding capillary pressure. We test our approach with natural and artificial soil samples and compare the NMR-based results to WRC measurements using a pressure plate apparatus and to WRC predictions from the software ROSETTA. We found that for sandy soils n can reliably be estimated with NMR, whereas for samples with clay and silt contents higher than 10% the estimation fails. This is the case when the hydraulic properties of the soil are mainly controlled by the pore constrictions. For such samples, the sensitivity of the NMR method for the pore bodies hampers a plausible WRC estimation. Citation: Costabel, S., and U. Yaramanci (2013), Estimation of water retention parameters from nuclear magnetic resonance relaxation time distributions, Water

  10. Incorporating model parameter uncertainty into inverse treatment planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lian Jun; Xing Lei

    2004-01-01

    Radiobiological treatment planning depends not only on the accuracy of the models describing the dose-response relation of different tumors and normal tissues but also on the accuracy of tissue specific radiobiological parameters in these models. Whereas the general formalism remains the same, different sets of model parameters lead to different solutions and thus critically determine the final plan. Here we describe an inverse planning formalism with inclusion of model parameter uncertainties. This is made possible by using a statistical analysis-based frameset developed by our group. In this formalism, the uncertainties of model parameters, such as the parameter a that describes tissue-specific effect in the equivalent uniform dose (EUD) model, are expressed by probability density function and are included in the dose optimization process. We found that the final solution strongly depends on distribution functions of the model parameters. Considering that currently available models for computing biological effects of radiation are simplistic, and the clinical data used to derive the models are sparse and of questionable quality, the proposed technique provides us with an effective tool to minimize the effect caused by the uncertainties in a statistical sense. With the incorporation of the uncertainties, the technique has potential for us to maximally utilize the available radiobiology knowledge for better IMRT treatment

  11. Kinetics of lipase-catalyzed esterification in organic media : correct model and solvent effects on parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, A.E.M.; Sjursnes, B.J.; Vakunov, A.V.; Halling, P.J.

    1999-01-01

    The Ping-Pong model (incl. alcohol inhibition) is not the correct model to describe the kinetics of a lipase-catalyzed esterification reaction. The first product, water, is always present at the start of the reaction. This leads to an equation with one extra parameter. This new equation fits our

  12. River water quality modelling: II

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shanahan, P.; Henze, Mogens; Koncsos, L.

    1998-01-01

    The U.S. EPA QUAL2E model is currently the standard for river water quality modelling. While QUAL2E is adequate for the regulatory situation for which it was developed (the U.S. wasteload allocation process), there is a need for a more comprehensive framework for research and teaching. Moreover......, and to achieve robust model calibration. Mass balance problems arise from failure to account for mass in the sediment as well as in the water column and due to the fundamental imprecision of BOD as a state variable. (C) 1998 IAWQ Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved....

  13. A method for model identification and parameter estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bambach, M; Heinkenschloss, M; Herty, M

    2013-01-01

    We propose and analyze a new method for the identification of a parameter-dependent model that best describes a given system. This problem arises, for example, in the mathematical modeling of material behavior where several competing constitutive equations are available to describe a given material. In this case, the models are differential equations that arise from the different constitutive equations, and the unknown parameters are coefficients in the constitutive equations. One has to determine the best-suited constitutive equations for a given material and application from experiments. We assume that the true model is one of the N possible parameter-dependent models. To identify the correct model and the corresponding parameters, we can perform experiments, where for each experiment we prescribe an input to the system and observe a part of the system state. Our approach consists of two stages. In the first stage, for each pair of models we determine the experiment, i.e. system input and observation, that best differentiates between the two models, and measure the distance between the two models. Then we conduct N(N − 1) or, depending on the approach taken, N(N − 1)/2 experiments and use the result of the experiments as well as the previously computed model distances to determine the true model. We provide sufficient conditions on the model distances and measurement errors which guarantee that our approach identifies the correct model. Given the model, we identify the corresponding model parameters in the second stage. The problem in the second stage is a standard parameter estimation problem and we use a method suitable for the given application. We illustrate our approach on three examples, including one where the models are elliptic partial differential equations with different parameterized right-hand sides and an example where we identify the constitutive equation in a problem from computational viscoplasticity. (paper)

  14. Quality assessment of water cycle parameters in REMO by radar-lidar synergy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Hennemuth

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available A comparison study of water cycle parameters derived from ground-based remote-sensing instruments and from the regional model REMO is presented. Observational data sets were collected during three measuring campaigns in summer/autumn 2003 and 2004 at Richard Aßmann Observatory, Lindenberg, Germany. The remote sensing instruments which were used are differential absorption lidar, Doppler lidar, ceilometer, cloud radar, and micro rain radar for the derivation of humidity profiles, ABL height, water vapour flux profiles, cloud parameters, and rain rate. Additionally, surface latent and sensible heat flux and soil moisture were measured. Error ranges and representativity of the data are discussed. For comparisons the regional model REMO was run for all measuring periods with a horizontal resolution of 18 km and 33 vertical levels. Parameter output was every hour. The measured data were transformed to the vertical model grid and averaged in time in order to better match with gridbox model values. The comparisons show that the atmospheric boundary layer is not adequately simulated, on most days it is too shallow and too moist. This is found to be caused by a wrong partitioning of energy at the surface, particularly a too large latent heat flux. The reason is obviously an overestimation of soil moisture during drying periods by the one-layer scheme in the model. The profiles of water vapour transport within the ABL appear to be realistically simulated. The comparison of cloud cover reveals an underestimation of low-level and mid-level clouds by the model, whereas the comparison of high-level clouds is hampered by the inability of the cloud radar to see cirrus clouds above 10 km. Simulated ABL clouds apparently have a too low cloud base, and the vertical extent is underestimated. The ice water content of clouds agree in model and observation whereas the liquid water content is unsufficiently derived from cloud radar reflectivity in the present study

  15. Characterizing parameter sensitivity and uncertainty for a snow model across hydroclimatic regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Minxue; Hogue, Terri S.; Franz, Kristie J.; Margulis, Steven A.; Vrugt, Jasper A.

    2011-01-01

    The National Weather Service (NWS) uses the SNOW17 model to forecast snow accumulation and ablation processes in snow-dominated watersheds nationwide. Successful application of the SNOW17 relies heavily on site-specific estimation of model parameters. The current study undertakes a comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of SNOW17 model parameters using forcing and snow water equivalent (SWE) data from 12 sites with differing meteorological and geographic characteristics. The Generalized Sensitivity Analysis and the recently developed Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm are utilized to explore the parameter space and assess model parametric and predictive uncertainty. Results indicate that SNOW17 parameter sensitivity and uncertainty generally varies between sites. Of the six hydroclimatic characteristics studied, only air temperature shows strong correlation with the sensitivity and uncertainty ranges of two parameters, while precipitation is highly correlated with the uncertainty of one parameter. Posterior marginal distributions of two parameters are also shown to be site-dependent in terms of distribution type. The SNOW17 prediction ensembles generated by the DREAM-derived posterior parameter sets contain most of the observed SWE. The proposed uncertainty analysis provides posterior parameter information on parameter uncertainty and distribution types that can serve as a foundation for a data assimilation framework for hydrologic models.

  16. Modeling of Water Quality 'Almendares River'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Domínguez Catasús, Judith

    2005-01-01

    The river Almendares, one of the most important water bodies of the Havana City, is very polluted. The analysis of parameters as dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand is very helpful for the studies aimed to the recovery of the river. There is a growing recognition around the word that the water quality models are very useful tools to plan sanitary strategies for the handling of the contamination. In the present work, the advective, steady- state Streeter and Phelps model was validated to simulate the effect of the multiple-point and distributed sources on the carbonaceous oxygen demand, NH4 and dissolved oxygen. For modeling purposes the section of the river located between the point where the waste water treatment station Maria del Carmen discharges to the river and the Bridge El Bosque, was divided in 11 segments. The use of the 99mTc and the Rodamine WT as tracers allowed determining the hydrodynamic parameters necessary for modeling purposes. The validated model allows to predict the effect of the sanitary strategies on the water quality of the river. The main conclusions are: 1. The model Streeter and Phelps calibrated and validated in the Almendares between the confluence of the channel 'María del Carmen' and bridge the Forest of Havana, described in more than 90% The behavior of the dissolved oxygen and BODn (in terms of ammonia), and more than 85%, the carbonaceous demand oxygen, which characterizes the process of purification. 2. Model validation Streeter and Phelps, indicates that implicit conceptual model is appropriate. This refers primarily to the considerations relating to the calculation of the kinetic constants and the DOS, the segmentation used, to the location of the discharges and the Standing been about them, to the river morphology and hydrodynamic parameters . 3. The calibration procedure Streeter and Phelps model that determines the least-squares Kr-Kd pair that best fits the OD and uses this Kr to model BOD gets four% increase in

  17. Optimal parameters for the FFA-Beddoes dynamic stall model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bjoerck, A.; Mert, M. [FFA, The Aeronautical Research Institute of Sweden, Bromma (Sweden); Madsen, H.A. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)

    1999-03-01

    Unsteady aerodynamic effects, like dynamic stall, must be considered in calculation of dynamic forces for wind turbines. Models incorporated in aero-elastic programs are of semi-empirical nature. Resulting aerodynamic forces therefore depend on values used for the semi-empiricial parameters. In this paper a study of finding appropriate parameters to use with the Beddoes-Leishman model is discussed. Minimisation of the `tracking error` between results from 2D wind tunnel tests and simulation with the model is used to find optimum values for the parameters. The resulting optimum parameters show a large variation from case to case. Using these different sets of optimum parameters in the calculation of blade vibrations, give rise to quite different predictions of aerodynamic damping which is discussed. (au)

  18. A distributed approach for parameters estimation in System Biology models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosca, E.; Merelli, I.; Alfieri, R.; Milanesi, L.

    2009-01-01

    Due to the lack of experimental measurements, biological variability and experimental errors, the value of many parameters of the systems biology mathematical models is yet unknown or uncertain. A possible computational solution is the parameter estimation, that is the identification of the parameter values that determine the best model fitting respect to experimental data. We have developed an environment to distribute each run of the parameter estimation algorithm on a different computational resource. The key feature of the implementation is a relational database that allows the user to swap the candidate solutions among the working nodes during the computations. The comparison of the distributed implementation with the parallel one showed that the presented approach enables a faster and better parameter estimation of systems biology models.

  19. Do Lumped-Parameter Models Provide the Correct Geometrical Damping?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars

    This paper concerns the formulation of lumped-parameter models for rigid footings on homogenous or stratified soil. Such models only contain a few degrees of freedom, which makes them ideal for inclusion in aero-elastic codes for wind turbines and other models applied to fast evaluation of struct......This paper concerns the formulation of lumped-parameter models for rigid footings on homogenous or stratified soil. Such models only contain a few degrees of freedom, which makes them ideal for inclusion in aero-elastic codes for wind turbines and other models applied to fast evaluation...... response during excitation and the geometrical damping related to free vibrations of a hexagonal footing. The optimal order of a lumped-parameter model is determined for each degree of freedom, i.e. horizontal and vertical translation as well as torsion and rocking. In particular, the necessity of coupling...

  20. Parameter estimation for groundwater models under uncertain irrigation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demissie, Yonas; Valocchi, Albert J.; Cai, Ximing; Brozovic, Nicholas; Senay, Gabriel; Gebremichael, Mekonnen

    2015-01-01

    The success of modeling groundwater is strongly influenced by the accuracy of the model parameters that are used to characterize the subsurface system. However, the presence of uncertainty and possibly bias in groundwater model source/sink terms may lead to biased estimates of model parameters and model predictions when the standard regression-based inverse modeling techniques are used. This study first quantifies the levels of bias in groundwater model parameters and predictions due to the presence of errors in irrigation data. Then, a new inverse modeling technique called input uncertainty weighted least-squares (IUWLS) is presented for unbiased estimation of the parameters when pumping and other source/sink data are uncertain. The approach uses the concept of generalized least-squares method with the weight of the objective function depending on the level of pumping uncertainty and iteratively adjusted during the parameter optimization process. We have conducted both analytical and numerical experiments, using irrigation pumping data from the Republican River Basin in Nebraska, to evaluate the performance of ordinary least-squares (OLS) and IUWLS calibration methods under different levels of uncertainty of irrigation data and calibration conditions. The result from the OLS method shows the presence of statistically significant (p model predictions that persist despite calibrating the models to different calibration data and sample sizes. However, by directly accounting for the irrigation pumping uncertainties during the calibration procedures, the proposed IUWLS is able to minimize the bias effectively without adding significant computational burden to the calibration processes.

  1. Mathematical model for water quality (portable water): a case study ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A water quality model for water-use-goal is proposed. The model is tested with a treatment schedule at a water works for portable water. It was observed that at least a 25 per cent savings can be achieved if the model is employed. Mathematics Connection Vol. 4 2004: 27-30 ...

  2. Transformations among CE–CVM model parameters for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Unknown

    parameters which exclusively represent interactions of the higher order systems. Such a procedure is presen- ted in detail in this communication. Furthermore, the details of transformations required to express the model parameters in one basis from those defined in another basis for the same system are also presented.

  3. Transformations among CE–CVM model parameters for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ... of parameters which exclusively represent interactions of the higher order systems. Such a procedure is presented in detail in this communication. Furthermore, the details of transformations required to express the model parameters in one basis from those defined in another basis for the same system are also presented.

  4. Prior distributions for item parameters in IRT models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Matteucci, M.; S. Mignani, Prof.; Veldkamp, Bernard P.

    2012-01-01

    The focus of this article is on the choice of suitable prior distributions for item parameters within item response theory (IRT) models. In particular, the use of empirical prior distributions for item parameters is proposed. Firstly, regression trees are implemented in order to build informative

  5. Diurnal dynamics of water quality parameters in an aquaculture ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Recirculating greenwater aquaculture technology is an appropriate method for producing commercial quantities of tilapia in areas where water is scarce. Greenwater systems achieve better fish production, more than 90% water recycling and nutrient utilization. This study was designed to address the diurnal dynamics of ...

  6. Retrospective forecast of ETAS model with daily parameters estimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falcone, Giuseppe; Murru, Maura; Console, Rodolfo; Marzocchi, Warner; Zhuang, Jiancang

    2016-04-01

    We present a retrospective ETAS (Epidemic Type of Aftershock Sequence) model based on the daily updating of free parameters during the background, the learning and the test phase of a seismic sequence. The idea was born after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The CSEP (Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability) Center in Japan provided an appropriate testing benchmark for the five 1-day submitted models. Of all the models, only one was able to successfully predict the number of events that really happened. This result was verified using both the real time and the revised catalogs. The main cause of the failure was in the underestimation of the forecasted events, due to model parameters maintained fixed during the test. Moreover, the absence in the learning catalog of an event similar to the magnitude of the mainshock (M9.0), which drastically changed the seismicity in the area, made the learning parameters not suitable to describe the real seismicity. As an example of this methodological development we show the evolution of the model parameters during the last two strong seismic sequences in Italy: the 2009 L'Aquila and the 2012 Reggio Emilia episodes. The achievement of the model with daily updated parameters is compared with that of same model where the parameters remain fixed during the test time.

  7. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaylie Rasmuson; Kurt Rautenstrauch

    2003-06-20

    This analysis is one of nine technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. It documents input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCF). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in the biosphere Technical Work Plan (TWP, BSC 2003a). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development and therefore not available at the time this document is issued. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003b) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters. This analysis report, ANL-MGR-MD-000006, ''Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. This report defines and justifies values for twelve parameters required in the biosphere model. These parameters are related to use of contaminated groundwater to grow crops. The parameter values recommended in this report are used in the soil, plant, and carbon-14 submodels of the ERMYN.

  8. Stochastic hyperelastic modeling considering dependency of material parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caylak, Ismail; Penner, Eduard; Dridger, Alex; Mahnken, Rolf

    2018-03-01

    This paper investigates the uncertainty of a hyperelastic model by treating random material parameters as stochastic variables. For its stochastic discretization a polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) is used. An important aspect in our work is the consideration of stochastic dependencies in the stochastic modeling of Ogden's material model. To this end, artificial experiments are generated using the auto-regressive moving average process based on real experiments. The parameter identification for all data provides statistics of Ogden's material parameters, which are subsequently used for stochastic modeling. Stochastic dependencies are incorporated into the PCE using a Nataf transformation from dependent distributed random variables to independent standard normal distributed ones. The representative numerical example shows that our proposed method adequately takes into account the stochastic dependencies of Ogden's material parameters.

  9. A compact cyclic plasticity model with parameter evolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krenk, Steen; Tidemann, L.

    2017-01-01

    by the Armstrong–Frederick model, contained as a special case of the present model for a particular choice of the shape parameter. In contrast to previous work, where shaping the stress-strain loops is derived from multiple internal stress states, this effect is here represented by a single parameter......The paper presents a compact model for cyclic plasticity based on energy in terms of external and internal variables, and plastic yielding described by kinematic hardening and a flow potential with an additive term controlling the nonlinear cyclic hardening. The model is basically described by five...... parameters: external and internal stiffness, a yield stress and a limiting ultimate stress, and finally a parameter controlling the gradual development of plastic deformation. Calibration against numerous experimental results indicates that typically larger plastic strains develop than predicted...

  10. Parameter Estimation for the Thurstone Case III Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackay, David B.; Chaiy, Seoil

    1982-01-01

    The ability of three estimation criteria to recover parameters of the Thurstone Case V and Case III models from comparative judgment data was investigated via Monte Carlo techniques. Significant differences in recovery are shown to exist. (Author/JKS)

  11. Improved parameter estimation for hydrological models using weighted object functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stein, A.; Zaadnoordijk, W.J.

    1999-01-01

    This paper discusses the sensitivity of calibration of hydrological model parameters to different objective functions. Several functions are defined with weights depending upon the hydrological background. These are compared with an objective function based upon kriging. Calibration is applied to

  12. Partial sum approaches to mathematical parameters of some growth models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korkmaz, Mehmet

    2016-04-01

    Growth model is fitted by evaluating the mathematical parameters, a, b and c. In this study, the method of partial sums were used. For finding the mathematical parameters, firstly three partial sums were used, secondly four partial sums were used, thirdly five partial sums were used and finally N partial sums were used. The purpose of increasing the partial decomposition is to produce a better phase model which gives a better expected value by minimizing error sum of squares in the interval used.

  13. Parameter estimation in stochastic rainfall-runoff models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Harpa; Madsen, Henrik; Palsson, Olafur Petur

    2006-01-01

    A parameter estimation method for stochastic rainfall-runoff models is presented. The model considered in the paper is a conceptual stochastic model, formulated in continuous-discrete state space form. The model is small and a fully automatic optimization is, therefore, possible for estimating all....... For a comparison the parameters are also estimated by an output error method, where the sum of squared simulation error is minimized. The former methodology is optimal for short-term prediction whereas the latter is optimal for simulations. Hence, depending on the purpose it is possible to select whether...... the parameter values are optimal for simulation or prediction. The data originates from Iceland and the model is designed for Icelandic conditions, including a snow routine for mountainous areas. The model demands only two input data series, precipitation and temperature and one output data series...

  14. Luminescence model with quantum impact parameter for low energy ions

    CERN Document Server

    Cruz-Galindo, H S; Martínez-Davalos, A; Belmont-Moreno, E; Galindo, S

    2002-01-01

    We have modified an analytical model of induced light production by energetic ions interacting in scintillating materials. The original model is based on the distribution of energy deposited by secondary electrons produced along the ion's track. The range of scattered electrons, and thus the energy distribution, depends on a classical impact parameter between the electron and the ion's track. The only adjustable parameter of the model is the quenching density rho sub q. The modification here presented, consists in proposing a quantum impact parameter that leads to a better fit of the model to the experimental data at low incident ion energies. The light output response of CsI(Tl) detectors to low energy ions (<3 MeV/A) is fitted with the modified model and comparison is made to the original model.

  15. Effect of water stress on the growth and some yield parameters of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Effect of water stress on the growth and some yield parameters of Solanum lycopersicum L. ... Plants in the first group (W1) were supplied with 200 ml of water everyday; plants in the second group (W2) were supplied with 200 ml of water once every 3 days; plants in the third group (W3) were supplied with 200 ml of water ...

  16. 40 CFR 141.87 - Monitoring requirements for water quality parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... § 141.87 Monitoring requirements for water quality parameters. All large water systems, and all small- and medium-size systems that exceed the lead or copper action level shall monitor water quality... methods. (i) Tap samples shall be representative of water quality throughout the distribution system...

  17. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    K. Rasmuson; K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-01-01

    This analysis is one of 10 technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) (i.e., the biosphere model). It documents development of agricultural and environmental input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters

  18. Combined Estimation of Hydrogeologic Conceptual Model and Parameter Uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyer, Philip D.; Ye, Ming; Neuman, Shlomo P.; Cantrell, Kirk J.

    2004-03-01

    The objective of the research described in this report is the development and application of a methodology for comprehensively assessing the hydrogeologic uncertainties involved in dose assessment, including uncertainties associated with conceptual models, parameters, and scenarios. This report describes and applies a statistical method to quantitatively estimate the combined uncertainty in model predictions arising from conceptual model and parameter uncertainties. The method relies on model averaging to combine the predictions of a set of alternative models. Implementation is driven by the available data. When there is minimal site-specific data the method can be carried out with prior parameter estimates based on generic data and subjective prior model probabilities. For sites with observations of system behavior (and optionally data characterizing model parameters), the method uses model calibration to update the prior parameter estimates and model probabilities based on the correspondence between model predictions and site observations. The set of model alternatives can contain both simplified and complex models, with the requirement that all models be based on the same set of data. The method was applied to the geostatistical modeling of air permeability at a fractured rock site. Seven alternative variogram models of log air permeability were considered to represent data from single-hole pneumatic injection tests in six boreholes at the site. Unbiased maximum likelihood estimates of variogram and drift parameters were obtained for each model. Standard information criteria provided an ambiguous ranking of the models, which would not justify selecting one of them and discarding all others as is commonly done in practice. Instead, some of the models were eliminated based on their negligibly small updated probabilities and the rest were used to project the measured log permeabilities by kriging onto a rock volume containing the six boreholes. These four

  19. SPOTting Model Parameters Using a Ready-Made Python Package.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Houska

    Full Text Available The choice for specific parameter estimation methods is often more dependent on its availability than its performance. We developed SPOTPY (Statistical Parameter Optimization Tool, an open source python package containing a comprehensive set of methods typically used to calibrate, analyze and optimize parameters for a wide range of ecological models. SPOTPY currently contains eight widely used algorithms, 11 objective functions, and can sample from eight parameter distributions. SPOTPY has a model-independent structure and can be run in parallel from the workstation to large computation clusters using the Message Passing Interface (MPI. We tested SPOTPY in five different case studies to parameterize the Rosenbrock, Griewank and Ackley functions, a one-dimensional physically based soil moisture routine, where we searched for parameters of the van Genuchten-Mualem function and a calibration of a biogeochemistry model with different objective functions. The case studies reveal that the implemented SPOTPY methods can be used for any model with just a minimal amount of code for maximal power of parameter optimization. They further show the benefit of having one package at hand that includes number of well performing parameter search methods, since not every case study can be solved sufficiently with every algorithm or every objective function.

  20. Simultaneous inference for model averaging of derived parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Signe Marie; Ritz, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Model averaging is a useful approach for capturing uncertainty due to model selection. Currently, this uncertainty is often quantified by means of approximations that do not easily extend to simultaneous inference. Moreover, in practice there is a need for both model averaging and simultaneous...... inference for derived parameters calculated in an after-fitting step. We propose a method for obtaining asymptotically correct standard errors for one or several model-averaged estimates of derived parameters and for obtaining simultaneous confidence intervals that asymptotically control the family...

  1. Updating parameters of the chicken processing line model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kurowicka, Dorota; Nauta, Maarten; Jozwiak, Katarzyna

    2010-01-01

    A mathematical model of chicken processing that quantitatively describes the transmission of Campylobacter on chicken carcasses from slaughter to chicken meat product has been developed in Nauta et al. (2005). This model was quantified with expert judgment. Recent availability of data allows...... updating parameters of the model to better describe processes observed in slaughterhouses. We propose Bayesian updating as a suitable technique to update expert judgment with microbiological data. Berrang and Dickens’s data are used to demonstrate performance of this method in updating parameters...... of the chicken processing line model....

  2. Lumped-Parameter Models for Windturbine Footings on Layered Ground

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars

    The design of modern wind turbines is typically based on lifetime analyses using aeroelastic codes. In this regard, the impedance of the foundations must be described accurately without increasing the overall size of the computationalmodel significantly. This may be obtained by the fitting...... of a lumped-parameter model to the results of a rigorous model or experimental results. In this paper, guidelines are given for the formulation of such lumped-parameter models and examples are given in which the models are utilised for the analysis of a wind turbine supported by a surface footing on a layered...

  3. Parameter estimation and model selection in computational biology.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriele Lillacci

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available A central challenge in computational modeling of biological systems is the determination of the model parameters. Typically, only a fraction of the parameters (such as kinetic rate constants are experimentally measured, while the rest are often fitted. The fitting process is usually based on experimental time course measurements of observables, which are used to assign parameter values that minimize some measure of the error between these measurements and the corresponding model prediction. The measurements, which can come from immunoblotting assays, fluorescent markers, etc., tend to be very noisy and taken at a limited number of time points. In this work we present a new approach to the problem of parameter selection of biological models. We show how one can use a dynamic recursive estimator, known as extended Kalman filter, to arrive at estimates of the model parameters. The proposed method follows. First, we use a variation of the Kalman filter that is particularly well suited to biological applications to obtain a first guess for the unknown parameters. Secondly, we employ an a posteriori identifiability test to check the reliability of the estimates. Finally, we solve an optimization problem to refine the first guess in case it should not be accurate enough. The final estimates are guaranteed to be statistically consistent with the measurements. Furthermore, we show how the same tools can be used to discriminate among alternate models of the same biological process. We demonstrate these ideas by applying our methods to two examples, namely a model of the heat shock response in E. coli, and a model of a synthetic gene regulation system. The methods presented are quite general and may be applied to a wide class of biological systems where noisy measurements are used for parameter estimation or model selection.

  4. Water Distribution and Removal Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Y. Deng; N. Chipman; E.L. Hardin

    2005-08-26

    The design of the Yucca Mountain high level radioactive waste repository depends on the performance of the engineered barrier system (EBS). To support the total system performance assessment (TSPA), the Engineered Barrier System Degradation, Flow, and Transport Process Model Report (EBS PMR) is developed to describe the thermal, mechanical, chemical, hydrological, biological, and radionuclide transport processes within the emplacement drifts, which includes the following major analysis/model reports (AMRs): (1) EBS Water Distribution and Removal (WD&R) Model; (2) EBS Physical and Chemical Environment (P&CE) Model; (3) EBS Radionuclide Transport (EBS RNT) Model; and (4) EBS Multiscale Thermohydrologic (TH) Model. Technical information, including data, analyses, models, software, and supporting documents will be provided to defend the applicability of these models for their intended purpose of evaluating the postclosure performance of the Yucca Mountain repository system. The WD&R model ARM is important to the site recommendation. Water distribution and removal represents one component of the overall EBS. Under some conditions, liquid water will seep into emplacement drifts through fractures in the host rock and move generally downward, potentially contacting waste packages. After waste packages are breached by corrosion, some of this seepage water will contact the waste, dissolve or suspend radionuclides, and ultimately carry radionuclides through the EBS to the near-field host rock. Lateral diversion of liquid water within the drift will occur at the inner drift surface, and more significantly from the operation of engineered structures such as drip shields and the outer surface of waste packages. If most of the seepage flux can be diverted laterally and removed from the drifts before contacting the wastes, the release of radionuclides from the EBS can be controlled, resulting in a proportional reduction in dose release at the accessible environment. The purposes

  5. Water Distribution and Removal Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Y. Deng; N. Chipman; E.L. Hardin

    2005-01-01

    The design of the Yucca Mountain high level radioactive waste repository depends on the performance of the engineered barrier system (EBS). To support the total system performance assessment (TSPA), the Engineered Barrier System Degradation, Flow, and Transport Process Model Report (EBS PMR) is developed to describe the thermal, mechanical, chemical, hydrological, biological, and radionuclide transport processes within the emplacement drifts, which includes the following major analysis/model reports (AMRs): (1) EBS Water Distribution and Removal (WD and R) Model; (2) EBS Physical and Chemical Environment (P and CE) Model; (3) EBS Radionuclide Transport (EBS RNT) Model; and (4) EBS Multiscale Thermohydrologic (TH) Model. Technical information, including data, analyses, models, software, and supporting documents will be provided to defend the applicability of these models for their intended purpose of evaluating the postclosure performance of the Yucca Mountain repository system. The WD and R model ARM is important to the site recommendation. Water distribution and removal represents one component of the overall EBS. Under some conditions, liquid water will seep into emplacement drifts through fractures in the host rock and move generally downward, potentially contacting waste packages. After waste packages are breached by corrosion, some of this seepage water will contact the waste, dissolve or suspend radionuclides, and ultimately carry radionuclides through the EBS to the near-field host rock. Lateral diversion of liquid water within the drift will occur at the inner drift surface, and more significantly from the operation of engineered structures such as drip shields and the outer surface of waste packages. If most of the seepage flux can be diverted laterally and removed from the drifts before contacting the wastes, the release of radionuclides from the EBS can be controlled, resulting in a proportional reduction in dose release at the accessible environment

  6. Pedotransfer functions to estimate water retention parameters of soils in northeastern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre Hugo Cezar Barros

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Pedotransfer functions (PTF were developed to estimate the parameters (α, n, θr and θs of the van Genuchten model (1980 to describe soil water retention curves. The data came from various sources, mainly from studies conducted by universities in Northeast Brazil, by the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa and by a corporation for the development of the São Francisco and Parnaíba river basins (Codevasf, totaling 786 retention curves, which were divided into two data sets: 85 % for the development of PTFs, and 15 % for testing and validation, considered independent data. Aside from the development of general PTFs for all soils together, specific PTFs were developed for the soil classes Ultisols, Oxisols, Entisols, and Alfisols by multiple regression techniques, using a stepwise procedure (forward and backward to select the best predictors. Two types of PTFs were developed: the first included all predictors (soil density, proportions of sand, silt, clay, and organic matter, and the second only the proportions of sand, silt and clay. The evaluation of adequacy of the PTFs was based on the correlation coefficient (R and Willmott index (d. To evaluate the PTF for the moisture content at specific pressure heads, we used the root mean square error (RMSE. The PTF-predicted retention curve is relatively poor, except for the residual water content. The inclusion of organic matter as a PTF predictor improved the prediction of parameter a of van Genuchten. The performance of soil-class-specific PTFs was not better than of the general PTF. Except for the water content of saturated soil estimated by particle size distribution, the tested models for water content prediction at specific pressure heads proved satisfactory. Predictions of water content at pressure heads more negative than -0.6 m, using a PTF considering particle size distribution, are only slightly lower than those obtained by PTFs including bulk density and organic matter

  7. Parameter values for the long-term nuclear waste management food chain model LIMCAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zach, Reto.

    1982-09-01

    Eighteen parameters of LIMCAL, a comprehensive food chain model for predicting ICRP 26 50-year committed effective dose equivalents to man due to long-term nuclear waste management are reviewed. The parameters are: soil bulk density, plowlayer depth, soil surface layer depth, resusupension factor, atmospheric dust load, deposition velocity, plant interception fraction, plant environmental half-time, translocation factor, time of above-ground exposure, plant yield, holdup time, animals' feed consumption rate, animals' water consumption rate, man's water consumption rate, food type calorie conversion factors, man's total caloric intake rate and food type calorie fractions. LIMCAL has both traditional and unique parameters. The former occur in most of the currently used assessment models for nuclear installations, whereas the latter do not. For each of the parameters of LIMCAL, a suitable generic value for long-term nuclear waste management was determined. Thus, the general literature and the values currently used or recommended by various agencies were reviewed

  8. Development of new model for high explosives detonation parameters calculation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeremić Radun

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The simple semi-empirical model for calculation of detonation pressure and velocity for CHNO explosives has been developed, which is based on experimental values of detonation parameters. Model uses Avakyan’s method for determination of detonation products' chemical composition, and is applicable in wide range of densities. Compared with the well-known Kamlet's method and numerical model of detonation based on BKW EOS, the calculated values from proposed model have significantly better accuracy.

  9. COMPILATION OF GROUND WATER MODELS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The full report presents an overview of currently available computer-based simulation models for ground-water flow, solute and heat transport, and hydrogeochemistry in both porous media and fractured rock. Separate sections address multiphase flow and related chemical species tra...

  10. Transfer parameters in the water/forage/moose pathway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-07-01

    Moose tissue samples and associated water and drinking water samples were collected from the Serpent River Drainage Area (Study Area) and outside of the watershed (Controls) during the fall of 1985. The concentrations of lead-210, polonium-210, radium-226, thorium and uranium were determined for both the study area and control samples. The radionuclide radium-226 was evaluated in the drinking water, vegetation and moose tissue to determine concentration factors. No statistical difference was found between study and control samples. Concentration factors from vegetation to moose tissue were found to range from 0.036 to 3.03 depending upon tissue type. Radionuclide concentrations found in this study were shown to be within known background levels. 2 maps

  11. Application of Least-Squares Support Vector Machines for Quantitative Evaluation of Known Contaminant in Water Distribution System Using Online Water Quality Parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Kexin; Wen, Xiang; Hou, Dibo; Tu, Dezhan; Zhu, Naifu; Huang, Pingjie; Zhang, Guangxin; Zhang, Hongjian

    2018-03-22

    In water-quality, early warning systems and qualitative detection of contaminants are always challenging. There are a number of parameters that need to be measured which are not entirely linearly related to pollutant concentrations. Besides the complex correlations between variable water parameters that need to be analyzed also impairs the accuracy of quantitative detection. In aspects of these problems, the application of least-squares support vector machines (LS-SVM) is used to evaluate the water contamination and various conventional water quality sensors quantitatively. The various contaminations may cause different correlative responses of sensors, and also the degree of response is related to the concentration of the injected contaminant. Therefore to enhance the reliability and accuracy of water contamination detection a new method is proposed. In this method, a new relative response parameter is introduced to calculate the differences between water quality parameters and their baselines. A variety of regression models has been examined, as result of its high performance, the regression model based on genetic algorithm (GA) is combined with LS-SVM. In this paper, the practical application of the proposed method is considered, controlled experiments are designed, and data is collected from the experimental setup. The measured data is applied to analyze the water contamination concentration. The evaluation of results validated that the LS-SVM model can adapt to the local nonlinear variations between water quality parameters and contamination concentration with the excellent generalization ability and accuracy. The validity of the proposed approach in concentration evaluation for potassium ferricyanide is proven to be more than 0.5 mg/L in water distribution systems.

  12. Using a 4D-Variational Method to Optimize Model Parameters in an Intermediate Coupled Model of ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, C.; Zhang, R. H.

    2017-12-01

    Large biases exist in real-time ENSO prediction, which is attributed to uncertainties in initial conditions and model parameters. Previously, a four dimentional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation system was developed for an intermediate coupled model (ICM) and used to improve ENSO modeling through optimized initial conditions. In this paper, this system is further applied to optimize model parameters. In the ICM used, one important process for ENSO is related to the anomalous temperature of subsurface water entrained into the mixed layer (Te), which is empirically and explicitly related to sea level (SL) variation, written as Te=αTe×FTe (SL). The introduced parameter, αTe, represents the strength of the thermocline effect on sea surface temperature (SST; referred as the thermocline effect). A numerical procedure is developed to optimize this model parameter through the 4D-Var assimilation of SST data in a twin experiment context with an idealized setting. Experiments having initial condition optimized only and having initial condition plus this additional model parameter optimized both are compared. It is shown that ENSO evolution can be more effectively recovered by including the additional optimization of this parameter in ENSO modeling. The demonstrated feasibility of optimizing model parameter and initial condition together through the 4D-Var method provides a modeling platform for ENSO studies. Further applications of the 4D-Var data assimilation system implemented in the ICM are also discussed.

  13. Idealized Experiments for Optimizing Model Parameters Using a 4D-Variational Method in an Intermediate Coupled Model of ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Chuan; Zhang, Rong-Hua; Wu, Xinrong; Sun, Jichang

    2018-04-01

    Large biases exist in real-time ENSO prediction, which can be attributed to uncertainties in initial conditions and model parameters. Previously, a 4D variational (4D-Var) data assimilation system was developed for an intermediate coupled model (ICM) and used to improve ENSO modeling through optimized initial conditions. In this paper, this system is further applied to optimize model parameters. In the ICM used, one important process for ENSO is related to the anomalous temperature of subsurface water entrained into the mixed layer ( T e), which is empirically and explicitly related to sea level (SL) variation. The strength of the thermocline effect on SST (referred to simply as "the thermocline effect") is represented by an introduced parameter, α Te. A numerical procedure is developed to optimize this model parameter through the 4D-Var assimilation of SST data in a twin experiment context with an idealized setting. Experiments having their initial condition optimized only, and having their initial condition plus this additional model parameter optimized, are compared. It is shown that ENSO evolution can be more effectively recovered by including the additional optimization of this parameter in ENSO modeling. The demonstrated feasibility of optimizing model parameters and initial conditions together through the 4D-Var method provides a modeling platform for ENSO studies. Further applications of the 4D-Var data assimilation system implemented in the ICM are also discussed.

  14. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M. Wasiolek

    2004-01-01

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment for the license application (TSPA-LA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA-LA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) (TWP). This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA). This report is one of the five reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model and the mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed description of the model input parameters. The output of this report is used as direct input in the ''Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' and in the ''Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios, respectively. The purpose of this analysis was to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or in volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573])

  15. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Wasiolek

    2004-09-10

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment for the license application (TSPA-LA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA-LA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) (TWP). This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA). This report is one of the five reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model and the mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed description of the model input parameters. The output of this report is used as direct input in the ''Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' and in the ''Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios, respectively. The purpose of this analysis was to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or in volcanic ash). The analysis

  16. Parameter uncertainty analysis of a biokinetic model of caesium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, W.B.; Oeh, U.; Klein, W.; Blanchardon, E.; Puncher, M.; Leggett, R.W.; Breustedt, B.; Nosske, D.; Lopez, M.A.

    2015-01-01

    Parameter uncertainties for the biokinetic model of caesium (Cs) developed by Leggett et al. were inventoried and evaluated. The methods of parameter uncertainty analysis were used to assess the uncertainties of model predictions with the assumptions of model parameter uncertainties and distributions. Furthermore, the importance of individual model parameters was assessed by means of sensitivity analysis. The calculated uncertainties of model predictions were compared with human data of Cs measured in blood and in the whole body. It was found that propagating the derived uncertainties in model parameter values reproduced the range of bioassay data observed in human subjects at different times after intake. The maximum ranges, expressed as uncertainty factors (UFs) (defined as a square root of ratio between 97.5. and 2.5. percentiles) of blood clearance, whole-body retention and urinary excretion of Cs predicted at earlier time after intake were, respectively: 1.5, 1.0 and 2.5 at the first day; 1.8, 1.1 and 2.4 at Day 10 and 1.8, 2.0 and 1.8 at Day 100; for the late times (1000 d) after intake, the UFs were increased to 43, 24 and 31, respectively. The model parameters of transfer rates between kidneys and blood, muscle and blood and the rate of transfer from kidneys to urinary bladder content are most influential to the blood clearance and to the whole-body retention of Cs. For the urinary excretion, the parameters of transfer rates from urinary bladder content to urine and from kidneys to urinary bladder content impact mostly. The implication and effect on the estimated equivalent and effective doses of the larger uncertainty of 43 in whole-body retention in the later time, say, after Day 500 will be explored in a successive work in the framework of EURADOS. (authors)

  17. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-01-01

    This analysis is one of 10 reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception

  18. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-09-10

    This analysis is one of 10 reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception.

  19. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wasiolek, M. A.

    2003-01-01

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2003 [163602]). Some documents in Figure 1-1 may be under development and not available when this report is issued. This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA), but access to the listed documents is not required to understand the contents of this report. This report is one of the reports that develops input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes the conceptual model, the mathematical model, and the input parameters. The purpose of this analysis is to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2003 [163602]). This analysis develops values of parameters associated with many features, events, and processes (FEPs) applicable to the reference biosphere (DTN: M00303SEPFEPS2.000 [162452]), which are addressed in the biosphere model (BSC 2003 [160699]). The treatment of these FEPs is described in BSC (2003 [160699], Section 6.2). Parameter values

  20. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-06-27

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2003 [163602]). Some documents in Figure 1-1 may be under development and not available when this report is issued. This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA), but access to the listed documents is not required to understand the contents of this report. This report is one of the reports that develops input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes the conceptual model, the mathematical model, and the input parameters. The purpose of this analysis is to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2003 [163602]). This analysis develops values of parameters associated with many features, events, and processes (FEPs) applicable to the reference biosphere (DTN: M00303SEPFEPS2.000 [162452]), which are addressed in the biosphere model (BSC 2003 [160699]). The treatment of these FEPs is described in BSC (2003 [160699

  1. Impact of water temperature and structural parameters on the hydraulic labyrinth-channel emitter performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed I. Al-Amoud

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The effects of water temperature and structural parameters of a labyrinth emitter on drip irrigation hydraulic performance were investigated. The inside structural parameters of the trapezoidal labyrinth emitter include path width (W and length (L, trapezoidal unit numbers (N, height (H, and spacing (S. Laboratory experiments were conducted using five different types of labyrinth-channel emitters (three non-pressure compensating and two pressure-compensating emitters commonly used for subsurface drip irrigation systems. The water temperature effect on the hydraulic characteristics at various operating pressures was recorded and a comparison was made to identify the most effective structural parameter on emitter performance. The pressure compensating emitter flow exponent (x average was 0.014, while non-pressure compensating emitter’s values average was 0.456, indicating that the sensitivity of non-pressure compensating emitters to pressure variation is an obvious characteristic (p<0.001 of this type of emitters. The effects of water temperature on emitter flow rate were insignificant (p>0.05 at various operating pressures, where the flow rate index values for emitters were around one. The effects of water temperature on manufacturer’s coefficient of variation (CV values for all emitters were insignificant (p>0.05. The CV values of the non-pressure compensating emitters were lower than those of pressure compensating emitters. This is typical for most compensating models because they are manufactured with more elements than non-compensating emitters are. The results of regression analysis indicate that N and H are the essential factors (p<0.001 to affect the hydraulic performance.

  2. Estimation of preferred water flow parameters for four species of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Very little quantitative data exist on hydraulic conditions linked to the blackfly species occurring in South African streams. Stones-in-current biotopes (i.e. fast riffle flows over cobbles) were sampled from four sites in three small clear streams in the Eastern and Western Cape provinces of South Africa. Mean water column ...

  3. Olive oil qualitative parameters after orchard irrigation with saline water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefanoudaki, Evagelia; Williams, Mark; Chartzoulakis, Kostas; Harwood, John

    2009-02-25

    The effect of irrigation with saline water on oil quality was studied in the two olive ( Olea europaea L.) cultivars Koroneiki and Mastoidis, which are the main varieties grown extensively on the island of Crete. Plants (5 years old) were grown outdoors in containers, filled with freely drained light soil. Four treatments were applied, differing in the NaCl added to the irrigation water as follows: 0 (control) 50, 100, and 150 mM NaCl. Drip irrigation was applied regularly, during the dry season (from April to October). Plants in all treatments were irrigated when the soil-water potential reached -40 kPa at a depth of 30 cm. Data showed that increased NaCl levels in irrigation water resulted in a decrease in oil content in the fruits and an increase in total phenols and their secoiridoid derivatives in olive oils from harvested fruits. Furthermore, changes also took place in the composition of fatty acids and triacylglycerol molecular species. The extent of alterations was different for the two varieties and greater in cv. Koroneiki. This fitted with agronomic evidence that cv. Koroneiki is less saline-tolerant than cv. Mastoidis.

  4. Seasonal variations of water and sediment quality parameters in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2012-10-16

    Oct 16, 2012 ... These descriptive statistics were determined using Predictive Analytics SoftWare (PASW). Statistics Version 18 Software. Piper diagrams were used to graphically represent the chemistry of the water samples at each site. These diagrams plot cations and anions as separate ternary plots and are mainly.

  5. Evaluation of physico-chemical and microbial parameters on water ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology ... A thorough study was done on the basis of prevailing seasons. ... was noticed at lower site of water body in a particular season as low temperature, dissolved oxygen and higher concentration of content of chlorine, etc., all pointing towards the nutrient enrichment.

  6. Assessment of Water Quality Parameters of Kpeshie Lagoon of Ghana

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A study was carried out on the Kpeshi Lagoon to identify the chemical and physical characteristics of the water. A lot of industrial activities are carried out around the Lagoon and it is being gradually turned into a place of refuse damp. Standard methods were used for determining of chemical and physical characteristics of ...

  7. assessment of water quality parameters of kpeshi lagoon of ghana

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    User

    ABSTRACT: A study was carried out on the Kpeshi Lagoon to identify the chemical and physical characteris- tics of the water. A lot of industrial activities are carried out around the Lagoon and it is being gradually turned into a place of refuse damp. Standard methods were used for determining of chemical and physical ...

  8. Simulation of water quality parameters from the treatment of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Michael Horsfall

    gravity wave speed criterion, which can seriously limit time steps in deep water bodies (Cole et al. 1995). A major problem with upwind differencing is the introduction of numerical diffusion where there is longitudinal advection. In many cases, numerical diffusion can overwhelm physical diffusion and produce inaccurate ...

  9. The impact of physico-chemical water quality parameters on ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PCA and RDA indicated that pH, water temperature and inorganic nutrient concentrations could be used to explain changes in bacterial community structures. High-throughput sequencing data showed that bacterial assemblages were dominated by common freshwater groups: Cyanobacteria, Alphaproteobacteria, ...

  10. Sensor placement for calibration of spatially varying model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nath, Paromita; Hu, Zhen; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2017-08-01

    This paper presents a sensor placement optimization framework for the calibration of spatially varying model parameters. To account for the randomness of the calibration parameters over space and across specimens, the spatially varying parameter is represented as a random field. Based on this representation, Bayesian calibration of spatially varying parameter is investigated. To reduce the required computational effort during Bayesian calibration, the original computer simulation model is substituted with Kriging surrogate models based on the singular value decomposition (SVD) of the model response and the Karhunen-Loeve expansion (KLE) of the spatially varying parameters. A sensor placement optimization problem is then formulated based on the Bayesian calibration to maximize the expected information gain measured by the expected Kullback-Leibler (K-L) divergence. The optimization problem needs to evaluate the expected K-L divergence repeatedly which requires repeated calibration of the spatially varying parameter, and this significantly increases the computational effort of solving the optimization problem. To overcome this challenge, an approximation for the posterior distribution is employed within the optimization problem to facilitate the identification of the optimal sensor locations using the simulated annealing algorithm. A heat transfer problem with spatially varying thermal conductivity is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  11. Electrodialytic desalination of brackish water: determination of optimal experimental parameters using full factorial design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gmar, Soumaya; Helali, Nawel; Boubakri, Ali; Sayadi, Ilhem Ben Salah; Tlili, Mohamed; Amor, Mohamed Ben

    2017-12-01

    The aim of this work is to study the desalination of brackish water by electrodialysis (ED). A two level-three factor (23) full factorial design methodology was used to investigate the influence of different physicochemical parameters on the demineralization rate (DR) and the specific power consumption (SPC). Statistical design determines factors which have the important effects on ED performance and studies all interactions between the considered parameters. Three significant factors were used including applied potential, salt concentration and flow rate. The experimental results and statistical analysis show that applied potential and salt concentration are the main effect for DR as well as for SPC. The effect of interaction between applied potential and salt concentration was observed for SPC. A maximum value of 82.24% was obtained for DR under optimum conditions and the best value of SPC obtained was 5.64 Wh L-1. Empirical regression models were also obtained and used to predict the DR and the SPC profiles with satisfactory results. The process was applied for the treatment of real brackish water using the optimal parameters.

  12. Procedures for parameter estimates of computational models for localized failure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Iacono, C.

    2007-01-01

    In the last years, many computational models have been developed for tensile fracture in concrete. However, their reliability is related to the correct estimate of the model parameters, not all directly measurable during laboratory tests. Hence, the development of inverse procedures is needed, that

  13. Geometry parameters for musculoskeletal modelling of the shoulder system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Helm, F C; Veeger, DirkJan (H. E. J.); Pronk, G M; Van der Woude, L H; Rozendal, R H

    A dynamical finite-element model of the shoulder mechanism consisting of thorax, clavicula, scapula and humerus is outlined. The parameters needed for the model are obtained in a cadaver experiment consisting of both shoulders of seven cadavers. In this paper, in particular, the derivation of

  14. Variation of radon levels in spring water with meteorological parameters and seismic events in Garhwal Himalayas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prasad, Yogesh; Prasad, Ganesh; Negi, M.S.; Ramola, R.C.; Choubey, V.M.

    2006-01-01

    Radon is being measured continuously in spring water at Badshahi Thaul Campus, Tehri Garhwal in Himalayan region by using radon emanometer since December 2002. An effort was made to correlate the variance of radon concentration in spring water with meteorological parameters and seismic events in study area. The positive correlation (coefficient = 0.79, 0.53, 0.60 and 0.70) was observed between measured radon concentration and minimum and maximum temperature, relative humidity and water discharge rate from the spring, respectively. However, no correlation was recorded between radon concentration and rain fall in the study area. Sudden increase in radon concentration in spring water were observed before the earthquakes occurred on 24 January 2003 of magnitude 3.4 on Richter scale having epicenter near Uttarkashi in Garhwal Himalaya and on 31 January 2003 of magnitude 3.1 on Richter scale having epicenter almost in same area. Similar changes in radon concentration were recorded before the earthquakes occurred on 4 April 2003 with magnitude 4.0 having epicenter near Almora in Kumaon Himalaya and on 26 May 2003 having magnitude 3.5 in Chamoli region of Garhwal Himalaya. Regular radon anomaly was recorded with micro seismic events from 5th August to 4th September 2003, which is discussed in detail. The impact of non geophysical and geophysical events on radon concentration in spring water is discussed in details. This type of study will help us to develop earthquake alarm model from radon in near future. (author)

  15. On line surveillance of core parameters for a pressurized water reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zwingelstein, G.; Kerlin, T.W.

    1976-01-01

    A surveillance algorithm for monitoring the Doppler coefficient and the overall fuel-to-coolant heat transfer coefficient for a pressurized water reactor has been developed for on line applications. The surveillance is achieved by comparison of the values of the parameters given by an adaptive identification process to the reference values corresponding to normal behaviour. The on-line adaptive identification method is based on a quasilinearization technique, sensitivity function calculation and a recursive least squares algorithm. The method was tested using a theoretical model for the Oconee I PWR and experimental results obtained during operation of Oconee I. The physical model of the plant consists of a stable variable model of 29th order where only some components of the state vector are measurable. The tests were achieved by adding a small time-varying perturbation signal to the flux controller set point while the reactor was operating at 95% of full power [fr

  16. A software for parameter estimation in dynamic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Yuceer

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available A common problem in dynamic systems is to determine parameters in an equation used to represent experimental data. The goal is to determine the values of model parameters that provide the best fit to measured data, generally based on some type of least squares or maximum likelihood criterion. In the most general case, this requires the solution of a nonlinear and frequently non-convex optimization problem. Some of the available software lack in generality, while others do not provide ease of use. A user-interactive parameter estimation software was needed for identifying kinetic parameters. In this work we developed an integration based optimization approach to provide a solution to such problems. For easy implementation of the technique, a parameter estimation software (PARES has been developed in MATLAB environment. When tested with extensive example problems from literature, the suggested approach is proven to provide good agreement between predicted and observed data within relatively less computing time and iterations.

  17. Effects of thermodynamics parameters on mass transfer of volatile pollutants at air-water interface

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li-ping Chen

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available A transient three-dimensional coupling model based on the compressible volume of fluid (VOF method was developed to simulate the transport of volatile pollutants at the air-water interface. VOF is a numerical technique for locating and tracking the free surface of water flow. The relationships between Henry's constant, thermodynamics parameters, and the enlarged topological index were proposed for nonstandard conditions. A series of experiments and numerical simulations were performed to study the transport of benzene and carbinol. The simulation results agreed with the experimental results. Temperature had no effect on mass transfer of pollutants with low transfer free energy and high Henry's constant. The temporal and spatial distribution of pollutants with high transfer free energy and low Henry's constant was affected by temperature. The total enthalpy and total transfer free energy increased significantly with temperature, with significant fluctuations at low temperatures. The total enthalpy and total transfer free energy increased steadily without fluctuation at high temperatures.

  18. Ground level enhancement (GLE) energy spectrum parameters model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, G.; Wu, S.

    2017-12-01

    We study the ground level enhancement (GLE) events in solar cycle 23 with the four energy spectra parameters, the normalization parameter C, low-energy power-law slope γ 1, high-energy power-law slope γ 2, and break energy E0, obtained by Mewaldt et al. 2012 who fit the observations to the double power-law equation. we divide the GLEs into two groups, one with strong acceleration by interplanetary (IP) shocks and another one without strong acceleration according to the condition of solar eruptions. We next fit the four parameters with solar event conditions to get models of the parameters for the two groups of GLEs separately. So that we would establish a model of energy spectrum for GLEs for the future space weather prediction.

  19. Determination of appropriate models and parameters for premixing calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Ik-Kyu; Kim, Jong-Hwan; Min, Beong-Tae; Hong, Seong-Wan

    2008-03-15

    The purpose of the present work is to use experiments that have been performed at Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe during about the last ten years for determining the most appropriate models and parameters for premixing calculations. The results of a QUEOS experiment are used to fix the parameters concerning heat transfer. The QUEOS experiments are especially suited for this purpose as they have been performed with small hot solid spheres. Therefore the area of heat exchange is known. With the heat transfer parameters fixed in this way, a PREMIX experiment is recalculated. These experiments have been performed with molten alumina (Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}) as a simulant of corium. Its initial temperature is 2600 K. With these experiments the models and parameters for jet and drop break-up are tested.

  20. Bench-scale evaluation of drinking water treatment parameters on iron particles and water quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, M Safiur; Gagnon, Graham A

    2014-01-01

    Discoloration of water resulting from suspended iron particles is one of the main customer complaints received by water suppliers. However, understanding of the mechanisms of discoloration as well as role of materials involved in the process is limited. In this study, an array of bench scale experiments were conducted to evaluate the impact of the most common variables (pH, PO4, Cl2 and DOM) on the properties of iron particles and suspensions derived from the oxygenation of Fe(II) ions in NaHCO3 buffered synthetic water systems. The most important factors as well as their rank influencing iron suspension color and turbidity formation were identified for a range of water quality parameters. This was accomplished using a 2(4) full factorial design approach at a 95% confidence level. The statistical analysis revealed that phosphate was found to be the most significant factor to alter color (contribution: 37.9%) and turbidity (contribution: 45.5%) in an iron-water system. A comprehensive study revealed that phosphate and chlorine produced iron suspension with reduced color and turbidity, made ζ-potential more negative, reduced the average particle size, and increased iron suspension stability. In the presence of DOM, color was observed to increase but a reverse trend was observed to decrease the turbidity and to alter particle size distribution. HPSEC results suggest that higher molecular weight fractions of DOM tend to adsorb onto the surfaces of iron particles at early stages, resulting in alteration of the surface charge of iron particles. This in turn limits particles aggregation and makes iron colloids highly stable. In the presence of a phosphate based corrosion inhibitor, this study demonstrated that color and turbidity resulting from suspended iron were lower at a pH value of 6.5 (compared to pH of 8.5). The same trend was observed in presence of DOM. This study also suggested that iron colloid suspension color and turbidity in chlorinated drinking water

  1. Validation of a spatial–temporal soil water movement and plant water uptake model

    KAUST Repository

    HEPPELL, J.

    2014-06-01

    © 2014, (publisher). All rights reserved. Management and irrigation of plants increasingly relies on accurate mathematical models for the movement of water within unsaturated soils. Current models often use values for water content and soil parameters that are averaged over the soil profile. However, many applications require models to more accurately represent the soil–plant–atmosphere continuum, in particular, water movement and saturation within specific parts of the soil profile. In this paper a mathematical model for water uptake by a plant root system from unsaturated soil is presented. The model provides an estimate of the water content level within the soil at different depths, and the uptake of water by the root system. The model was validated using field data, which include hourly water content values at five different soil depths under a grass/herb cover over 1 year, to obtain a fully calibrated system for plant water uptake with respect to climate conditions. When compared quantitatively to a simple water balance model, the proposed model achieves a better fit to the experimental data due to its ability to vary water content with depth. To accurately model the water content in the soil profile, the soil water retention curve and saturated hydraulic conductivity needed to vary with depth.

  2. Parameter Estimation for Single Diode Models of Photovoltaic Modules

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansen, Clifford [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Photovoltaic and Distributed Systems Integration Dept.

    2015-03-01

    Many popular models for photovoltaic system performance employ a single diode model to compute the I - V curve for a module or string of modules at given irradiance and temperature conditions. A single diode model requires a number of parameters to be estimated from measured I - V curves. Many available parameter estimation methods use only short circuit, o pen circuit and maximum power points for a single I - V curve at standard test conditions together with temperature coefficients determined separately for individual cells. In contrast, module testing frequently records I - V curves over a wide range of irradi ance and temperature conditions which, when available , should also be used to parameterize the performance model. We present a parameter estimation method that makes use of a fu ll range of available I - V curves. We verify the accuracy of the method by recov ering known parameter values from simulated I - V curves . We validate the method by estimating model parameters for a module using outdoor test data and predicting the outdoor performance of the module.

  3. Uncertainty Assessment in Urban Storm Water Drainage Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren

    The object of this paper is to make an overall description of the author's PhD study, concerning uncertainties in numerical urban storm water drainage models. Initially an uncertainty localization and assessment of model inputs and parameters as well as uncertainties caused by different model...

  4. Water uptake profile in a model ion-exchange membrane: Conditions for water-rich channels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herbst, Daniel C.; Witten, Thomas A.; Tsai, Tsung-Han; Coughlin, E. Bryan; Maes, Ashley M.; Herring, Andrew M.

    2015-03-01

    Ionic conductivity in a polymeric fuel cell requires water uptake. Previous theoretical studies of water uptake used idealized parameters. We report a parameter-free prediction of the water-swelling behavior of a model fuel cell membrane. The model polymers, poly(methyl-butylene)-block-poly(vinylbenzyl-trimethylamine), form lamellar domains that absorb water in humid air. We use the Scheutjens-Fleer methodology to predict the resulting change in lamellar structure and compare with x-ray scattering. The results suggest locally uniform water distributions. However, under conditions where a PVBTMA and water mixture phase-separate, the two phases arrange into stripes with a dilute stripe sandwiched between two concentrated stripes. A small amount of water enhances conductivity most when it is partitioned into such channels, improving fuel-cell performance.

  5. Modeling Chinese ionospheric layer parameters based on EOF analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, You; Wan, Weixing

    2016-04-01

    Using 24-ionosonde observations in and around China during the 20th solar cycle, an assimilative model is constructed to map the ionospheric layer parameters (foF2, hmF2, M(3000)F2, and foE) over China based on empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. First, we decompose the background maps from the International Reference Ionosphere model 2007 (IRI-07) into different EOF modes. The obtained EOF modes consist of two factors: the EOF patterns and the corresponding EOF amplitudes. These two factors individually reflect the spatial distributions (e.g., the latitudinal dependence such as the equatorial ionization anomaly structure and the longitude structure with east-west difference) and temporal variations on different time scales (e.g., solar cycle, annual, semiannual, and diurnal variations) of the layer parameters. Then, the EOF patterns and long-term observations of ionosondes are assimilated to get the observed EOF amplitudes, which are further used to construct the Chinese Ionospheric Maps (CIMs) of the layer parameters. In contrast with the IRI-07 model, the mapped CIMs successfully capture the inherent temporal and spatial variations of the ionospheric layer parameters. Finally, comparison of the modeled (EOF and IRI-07 model) and observed values reveals that the EOF model reproduces the observation with smaller root-mean-square errors and higher linear correlation co- efficients. In addition, IRI discrepancy at the low latitude especially for foF2 is effectively removed by EOF model.

  6. Parameters and variables appearing in repository design models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Curtis, R.H.; Wart, R.J.

    1983-12-01

    This report defines the parameters and variables appearing in repository design models and presents typical values and ranges of values of each. Areas covered by this report include thermal, geomechanical, and coupled stress and flow analyses in rock. Particular emphasis is given to conductivity, radiation, and convection parameters for thermal analysis and elastic constants, failure criteria, creep laws, and joint properties for geomechanical analysis. The data in this report were compiled to help guide the selection of values of parameters and variables to be used in code benchmarking. 102 references, 33 figures, 51 tables

  7. Using of Pourbaix diagram for evaluation of water chemistry recommended for ultra-supercritical parameter of water coolant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrova, T. I.; Selivanov, E. A.

    2017-11-01

    An important indicator the reliable operation of the steam-water cycle at power plants is water chemistry. Special chemicals are used to correct water chemistry. At designing a new unit the selection of the chemicals is determined by the parameters of the water and steam and materials, used in different parts of the cycle. Oxygen and ammonia are used to correct water chemistry at units with supercritical parameters In the presence of these reagents the protective film is formed on the surface of the metal. The transition to ultra-supercritical parameters requires the using of new materials, used in the water-steam cycle. Austenitic steels are recommended to replace on inconel steels. Oxygenated treatment and all-volatile treatment under oxidizing conditions were recommended to apply at units of ultra-supercritical parameters. However to select the optimum water chemistry is necessary to have date on the conditions of formation the protective film on the inconel surfaces. On the basis of Pourbaix diagram is proposed to evaluate the influence of water chemistry on the forms of existence the oxides of nickel and chromium on the surface of inconel at high parameters of water coolant. The results of calculations are compared with the experimental data.

  8. A lumped parameter, low dimension model of heat exchanger

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanoh, Hideaki; Furushoo, Junji; Masubuchi, Masami

    1980-01-01

    This paper reports on the results of investigation of the distributed parameter model, the difference model, and the model of the method of weighted residuals for heat exchangers. By the method of weighted residuals (MWR), the opposite flow heat exchanger system is approximated by low dimension, lumped parameter model. By assuming constant specific heat, constant density, the same form of tube cross-section, the same form of the surface of heat exchange, uniform flow velocity, the linear relation of heat transfer to flow velocity, liquid heat carrier, and the thermal insulation of liquid from outside, fundamental equations are obtained. The experimental apparatus was made of acrylic resin. The response of the temperature at the exit of first liquid to the variation of the flow rate of second liquid was measured and compared with the models. The MWR model shows good approximation for the low frequency region, and as the number of division increases, good approximation spreads to higher frequency region. (Kato, T.)

  9. Control of the SCOLE configuration using distributed parameter models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiao, Min-Hung; Huang, Jen-Kuang

    1994-01-01

    A continuum model for the SCOLE configuration has been derived using transfer matrices. Controller designs for distributed parameter systems have been analyzed. Pole-assignment controller design is considered easy to implement but stability is not guaranteed. An explicit transfer function of dynamic controllers has been obtained and no model reduction is required before the controller is realized. One specific LQG controller for continuum models had been derived, but other optimal controllers for more general performances need to be studied.

  10. A large scale GIS geodatabase of soil parameters supporting the modeling of conservation practice alternatives in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Water quality modeling requires across-scale support of combined digital soil elements and simulation parameters. This paper presents the unprecedented development of a large spatial scale (1:250,000) ArcGIS geodatabase coverage designed as a functional repository of soil-parameters for modeling an...

  11. A survey of indicator parameters to monitor regrowth in unchlorinated drinking water

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wielen, P.W.J.J. van der; Bakker, G.; Atsma, A.; Lut, M.; Roeselers, G.; Graaf, B. de

    2016-01-01

    The objective of our study was to explore microbiological parameters that are suitable as indicators for regrowth in distribution systems that receive unchlorinated drinking water in the Netherlands. Treated water and distributed water at two locations in the distribution system of 28 treatment

  12. SPOTting model parameters using a ready-made Python package

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houska, Tobias; Kraft, Philipp; Breuer, Lutz

    2015-04-01

    The selection and parameterization of reliable process descriptions in ecological modelling is driven by several uncertainties. The procedure is highly dependent on various criteria, like the used algorithm, the likelihood function selected and the definition of the prior parameter distributions. A wide variety of tools have been developed in the past decades to optimize parameters. Some of the tools are closed source. Due to this, the choice for a specific parameter estimation method is sometimes more dependent on its availability than the performance. A toolbox with a large set of methods can support users in deciding about the most suitable method. Further, it enables to test and compare different methods. We developed the SPOT (Statistical Parameter Optimization Tool), an open source python package containing a comprehensive set of modules, to analyze and optimize parameters of (environmental) models. SPOT comes along with a selected set of algorithms for parameter optimization and uncertainty analyses (Monte Carlo, MC; Latin Hypercube Sampling, LHS; Maximum Likelihood, MLE; Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC; Scuffled Complex Evolution, SCE-UA; Differential Evolution Markov Chain, DE-MCZ), together with several likelihood functions (Bias, (log-) Nash-Sutcliff model efficiency, Correlation Coefficient, Coefficient of Determination, Covariance, (Decomposed-, Relative-, Root-) Mean Squared Error, Mean Absolute Error, Agreement Index) and prior distributions (Binomial, Chi-Square, Dirichlet, Exponential, Laplace, (log-, multivariate-) Normal, Pareto, Poisson, Cauchy, Uniform, Weibull) to sample from. The model-independent structure makes it suitable to analyze a wide range of applications. We apply all algorithms of the SPOT package in three different case studies. Firstly, we investigate the response of the Rosenbrock function, where the MLE algorithm shows its strengths. Secondly, we study the Griewank function, which has a challenging response surface for

  13. Temporal variability and climatology of hydrodynamic, water property and water quality parameters in the West Johor Strait of Singapore

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Behera, Manasa Ranjan; Chun, Cui; Palani, Sundarambal; Tkalich, Pavel

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Water temperature is driven by solar radiation and air temperature in the West Johor Strait (WJS). • Salinity in WJS is driven by flood-ebb tide and seasonal variability due to monsoon. • Turbidity is mainly dependent on tidal current and river discharge in WJS. • Chl-a concentration increases with increase in air and water temperature in WJS. • Near-bottom Chl-a concentration in the WJS is high during SW monsoon. -- Abstract: The study presents a baseline variability and climatology study of measured hydrodynamic, water properties and some water quality parameters of West Johor Strait, Singapore at hourly-to-seasonal scales to uncover their dependency and correlation to one or more drivers. The considered parameters include, but not limited by sea surface elevation, current magnitude and direction, solar radiation and air temperature, water temperature, salinity, chlorophyll-a and turbidity. FFT (Fast Fourier Transform) analysis is carried out for the parameters to delineate relative effect of tidal and weather drivers. The group and individual correlations between the parameters are obtained by principal component analysis (PCA) and cross-correlation (CC) technique, respectively. The CC technique also identifies the dependency and time lag between driving natural forces and dependent water property and water quality parameters. The temporal variability and climatology of the driving forces and the dependent parameters are established at the hourly, daily, fortnightly and seasonal scales

  14. Synchronous Generator Model Parameter Estimation Based on Noisy Dynamic Waveforms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berhausen, Sebastian; Paszek, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, there have occurred system failures in many power systems all over the world. They have resulted in a lack of power supply to a large number of recipients. To minimize the risk of occurrence of power failures, it is necessary to perform multivariate investigations, including simulations, of power system operating conditions. To conduct reliable simulations, the current base of parameters of the models of generating units, containing the models of synchronous generators, is necessary. In the paper, there is presented a method for parameter estimation of a synchronous generator nonlinear model based on the analysis of selected transient waveforms caused by introducing a disturbance (in the form of a pseudorandom signal) in the generator voltage regulation channel. The parameter estimation was performed by minimizing the objective function defined as a mean square error for deviations between the measurement waveforms and the waveforms calculated based on the generator mathematical model. A hybrid algorithm was used for the minimization of the objective function. In the paper, there is described a filter system used for filtering the noisy measurement waveforms. The calculation results of the model of a 44 kW synchronous generator installed on a laboratory stand of the Institute of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science of the Silesian University of Technology are also given. The presented estimation method can be successfully applied to parameter estimation of different models of high-power synchronous generators operating in a power system.

  15. On the role of modeling parameters in IMRT plan optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krause, Michael; Scherrer, Alexander; Thieke, Christian

    2008-01-01

    The formulation of optimization problems in intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) planning comprises the choice of various values such as function-specific parameters or constraint bounds. In current inverse planning programs that yield a single treatment plan for each optimization, it is often unclear how strongly these modeling parameters affect the resulting plan. This work investigates the mathematical concepts of elasticity and sensitivity to deal with this problem. An artificial planning case with a horse-shoe formed target with different opening angles surrounding a circular risk structure is studied. As evaluation functions the generalized equivalent uniform dose (EUD) and the average underdosage below and average overdosage beyond certain dose thresholds are used. A single IMRT plan is calculated for an exemplary parameter configuration. The elasticity and sensitivity of each parameter are then calculated without re-optimization, and the results are numerically verified. The results show the following. (1) elasticity can quantify the influence of a modeling parameter on the optimization result in terms of how strongly the objective function value varies under modifications of the parameter value. It also can describe how strongly the geometry of the involved planning structures affects the optimization result. (2) Based on the current parameter settings and corresponding treatment plan, sensitivity analysis can predict the optimization result for modified parameter values without re-optimization, and it can estimate the value intervals in which such predictions are valid. In conclusion, elasticity and sensitivity can provide helpful tools in inverse IMRT planning to identify the most critical parameters of an individual planning problem and to modify their values in an appropriate way

  16. Analysis of neutron parameters in light water moderated lattices of ThO2 and UO2 fuel rods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onusic Junior, J.; Oosterkamp, W.J.

    1977-01-01

    A large number of light water moderated lattices of UO 2 and ThO 2 fuel rods were analyzed with the code HAMMER. The purpose of the study was to compare experimental results with computer calculated values. The model employed is described and some modification were introduced in the resonance parameters of Th-232 to increase the agreement with the experimental value [pt

  17. Assessment of Lumped-Parameter Models for Rigid Footings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars

    2010-01-01

    The quality of consistent lumped-parameter models of rigid footings is examined. Emphasis is put on the maximum response during excitation and the geometrical damping related to free vibrations. The optimal order of a lumped-parameter model is determined for each degree of freedom, i.e. horizontal...... and vertical translations as well as torsion and rocking, and the necessity of coupling between horizontal sliding and rocking is discussed. Most of the analyses are carried out for hexagonal footings; but in order to generalise the conclusions to a broader variety of footings, comparisons are made...... with the response of circular and square foundations....

  18. Modeling Water Pollution of Soil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Doležel

    2008-01-01

    depth of 220–300 m below the terrain. As an alternative, thinner stoppers were considered, but this option was discarded.The aim of this paper is to describe the design of the stoppers applied to separate the two types of water along the contact horizon using Desai’s DSC theory (Distinct State Concept, and generalized plane strain in the multiphase problem of water flow in a porous medium. In addition, a comparison of some results from scale experimental models with numerical solutions was carried out. The intrinsic material properties of stoppers for numerical computations were obtained from physical and chemical laboratory tests. The models were evaluated for the complete underground work, particularly in its final stage of construction. 

  19. Climate change decision-making: Model & parameter uncertainties explored

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dowlatabadi, H.; Kandlikar, M.; Linville, C.

    1995-12-31

    A critical aspect of climate change decision-making is uncertainties in current understanding of the socioeconomic, climatic and biogeochemical processes involved. Decision-making processes are much better informed if these uncertainties are characterized and their implications understood. Quantitative analysis of these uncertainties serve to inform decision makers about the likely outcome of policy initiatives, and help set priorities for research so that outcome ambiguities faced by the decision-makers are reduced. A family of integrated assessment models of climate change have been developed at Carnegie Mellon. These models are distinguished from other integrated assessment efforts in that they were designed from the outset to characterize and propagate parameter, model, value, and decision-rule uncertainties. The most recent of these models is ICAM 2.1. This model includes representation of the processes of demographics, economic activity, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, climate and sea level change and impacts from these changes and policies for emissions mitigation, and adaptation to change. The model has over 800 objects of which about one half are used to represent uncertainty. In this paper we show, that when considering parameter uncertainties, the relative contribution of climatic uncertainties are most important, followed by uncertainties in damage calculations, economic uncertainties and direct aerosol forcing uncertainties. When considering model structure uncertainties we find that the choice of policy is often dominated by model structure choice, rather than parameter uncertainties.

  20. Developing a particle tracking surrogate model to improve inversion of ground water - Surface water models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cousquer, Yohann; Pryet, Alexandre; Atteia, Olivier; Ferré, Ty P. A.; Delbart, Célestine; Valois, Rémi; Dupuy, Alain

    2018-03-01

    The inverse problem of groundwater models is often ill-posed and model parameters are likely to be poorly constrained. Identifiability is improved if diverse data types are used for parameter estimation. However, some models, including detailed solute transport models, are further limited by prohibitive computation times. This often precludes the use of concentration data for parameter estimation, even if those data are available. In the case of surface water-groundwater (SW-GW) models, concentration data can provide SW-GW mixing ratios, which efficiently constrain the estimate of exchange flow, but are rarely used. We propose to reduce computational limits by simulating SW-GW exchange at a sink (well or drain) based on particle tracking under steady state flow conditions. Particle tracking is used to simulate advective transport. A comparison between the particle tracking surrogate model and an advective-dispersive model shows that dispersion can often be neglected when the mixing ratio is computed for a sink, allowing for use of the particle tracking surrogate model. The surrogate model was implemented to solve the inverse problem for a real SW-GW transport problem with heads and concentrations combined in a weighted hybrid objective function. The resulting inversion showed markedly reduced uncertainty in the transmissivity field compared to calibration on head data alone.

  1. Oscillating water column structural model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Copeland, Guild [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bull, Diana L [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jepsen, Richard Alan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gordon, Margaret Ellen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-09-01

    An oscillating water column (OWC) wave energy converter is a structure with an opening to the ocean below the free surface, i.e. a structure with a moonpool. Two structural models for a non-axisymmetric terminator design OWC, the Backward Bent Duct Buoy (BBDB) are discussed in this report. The results of this structural model design study are intended to inform experiments and modeling underway in support of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) initiated Reference Model Project (RMP). A detailed design developed by Re Vision Consulting used stiffeners and girders to stabilize the structure against the hydrostatic loads experienced by a BBDB device. Additional support plates were added to this structure to account for loads arising from the mooring line attachment points. A simplified structure was designed in a modular fashion. This simplified design allows easy alterations to the buoyancy chambers and uncomplicated analysis of resulting changes in buoyancy.

  2. Parameter estimation in nonlinear models for pesticide degradation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richter, O.; Pestemer, W.; Bunte, D.; Diekkrueger, B.

    1991-01-01

    A wide class of environmental transfer models is formulated as ordinary or partial differential equations. With the availability of fast computers, the numerical solution of large systems became feasible. The main difficulty in performing a realistic and convincing simulation of the fate of a substance in the biosphere is not the implementation of numerical techniques but rather the incomplete data basis for parameter estimation. Parameter estimation is a synonym for statistical and numerical procedures to derive reasonable numerical values for model parameters from data. The classical method is the familiar linear regression technique which dates back to the 18th century. Because it is easy to handle, linear regression has long been established as a convenient tool for analysing relationships. However, the wide use of linear regression has led to an overemphasis of linear relationships. In nature, most relationships are nonlinear and linearization often gives a poor approximation of reality. Furthermore, pure regression models are not capable to map the dynamics of a process. Therefore, realistic models involve the evolution in time (and space). This leads in a natural way to the formulation of differential equations. To establish the link between data and dynamical models, numerical advanced parameter identification methods have been developed in recent years. This paper demonstrates the application of these techniques to estimation problems in the field of pesticide dynamics. (7 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs.)

  3. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M. Wasiolek

    2006-01-01

    This analysis is one of the technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), referred to in this report as the biosphere model. ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'' is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the biosphere model is presented in Figure 1-1 (based on BSC 2006 [DIRS 176938]). This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This analysis report defines and justifies values of atmospheric mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of the biosphere model to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception. This report is concerned primarily with the

  4. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Wasiolek

    2006-06-05

    This analysis is one of the technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), referred to in this report as the biosphere model. ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'' is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the biosphere model is presented in Figure 1-1 (based on BSC 2006 [DIRS 176938]). This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This analysis report defines and justifies values of atmospheric mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of the biosphere model to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception. This

  5. Mutagenicity of drinking water sampled from the Yangtze River and Hanshui River (Wuhan section) and correlations with water quality parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Xuemin; Lu, Yi; Yang, Xiaoming; Dong, Xiaorong; Ma, Kunpeng; Xiao, Sanhua; Wang, Yazhou; Tang, Fei

    2015-03-31

    A total of 54 water samples were collected during three different hydrologic periods (level period, wet period, and dry period) from Plant A and Plant B (a source for Yangtze River and Hanshui River water, respectively), and several water parameters, such as chemical oxygen demand (COD), turbidity, and total organic carbon (TOC), were simultaneously analyzed. The mutagenicity of the water samples was evaluated using the Ames test with Salmonella typhimurium strains TA98 and TA100. According to the results, the organic compounds in the water were largely frame-shift mutagens, as positive results were found for most of the tests using TA98. All of the finished water samples exhibited stronger mutagenicity than the relative raw and distribution water samples, with water samples collected from Plant B presenting stronger mutagenic strength than those from Plant A. The finished water samples from Plant A displayed a seasonal-dependent variation. Water parameters including COD (r = 0.599, P = 0.009), TOC (r = 0.681, P = 0.02), UV254 (r = 0.711, P = 0.001), and total nitrogen (r = 0.570, P = 0.014) exhibited good correlations with mutagenicity (TA98), at 2.0 L/plate, which bolsters the argument of the importance of using mutagenicity as a new parameter to assess the quality of drinking water.

  6. The level density parameters for fermi gas model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zuang Youxiang; Wang Cuilan; Zhou Chunmei; Su Zongdi

    1986-01-01

    Nuclear level densities are crucial ingredient in the statistical models, for instance, in the calculations of the widths, cross sections, emitted particle spectra, etc. for various reaction channels. In this work 667 sets of more reliable and new experimental data are adopted, which include average level spacing D D , radiative capture width Γ γ 0 at neutron binding energy and cumulative level number N 0 at the low excitation energy. They are published during 1973 to 1983. Based on the parameters given by Gilbert-Cameon and Cook the physical quantities mentioned above are calculated. The calculated results have the deviation obviously from experimental values. In order to improve the fitting, the parameters in the G-C formula are adjusted and new set of level density parameters is obsained. The parameters is this work are more suitable to fit new measurements

  7. Identifiability and error minimization of receptor model parameters with PET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delforge, J.; Syrota, A.; Mazoyer, B.M.

    1989-01-01

    The identifiability problem and the general framework for experimental design optimization are presented. The methodology is applied to the problem of the receptor-ligand model parameter estimation with dynamic positron emission tomography data. The first attempts to identify the model parameters from data obtained with a single tracer injection led to disappointing numerical results. The possibility of improving parameter estimation using a new experimental design combining an injection of the labelled ligand and an injection of the cold ligand (displacement experiment) has been investigated. However, this second protocol led to two very different numerical solutions and it was necessary to demonstrate which solution was biologically valid. This has been possible by using a third protocol including both a displacement and a co-injection experiment. (authors). 16 refs.; 14 figs

  8. X-Parameter Based Modelling of Polar Modulated Power Amplifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Yelin; Nielsen, Troels Studsgaard; Sira, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    X-parameters are developed as an extension of S-parameters capable of modelling non-linear devices driven by large signals. They are suitable for devices having only radio frequency (RF) and DC ports. In a polar power amplifier (PA), phase and envelope of the input modulated signal are applied...... at separate ports and the envelope port is neither an RF nor a DC port. As a result, X-parameters may fail to characterise the effect of the envelope port excitation and consequently the polar PA. This study introduces a solution to the problem for a commercial polar PA. In this solution, the RF-phase path...... PA for simulations. The simulated error vector magnitude (EVM) and adjacent channel power ratio (ACPR) were compared with the measured data to validate the model. The maximum differences between the simulated and measured EVM and ACPR are less than 2% point and 3 dB, respectively....

  9. Joint Dynamics Modeling and Parameter Identification for Space Robot Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adenilson R. da Silva

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Long-term mission identification and model validation for in-flight manipulator control system in almost zero gravity with hostile space environment are extremely important for robotic applications. In this paper, a robot joint mathematical model is developed where several nonlinearities have been taken into account. In order to identify all the required system parameters, an integrated identification strategy is derived. This strategy makes use of a robust version of least-squares procedure (LS for getting the initial conditions and a general nonlinear optimization method (MCS—multilevel coordinate search—algorithm to estimate the nonlinear parameters. The approach is applied to the intelligent robot joint (IRJ experiment that was developed at DLR for utilization opportunity on the International Space Station (ISS. The results using real and simulated measurements have shown that the developed algorithm and strategy have remarkable features in identifying all the parameters with good accuracy.

  10. Accounting for Water Insecurity in Modeling Domestic Water Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galaitsis, S. E.; Huber-lee, A. T.; Vogel, R. M.; Naumova, E.

    2013-12-01

    Water demand management uses price elasticity estimates to predict consumer demand in relation to water pricing changes, but studies have shown that many additional factors effect water consumption. Development scholars document the need for water security, however, much of the water security literature focuses on broad policies which can influence water demand. Previous domestic water demand studies have not considered how water security can affect a population's consumption behavior. This study is the first to model the influence of water insecurity on water demand. A subjective indicator scale measuring water insecurity among consumers in the Palestinian West Bank is developed and included as a variable to explore how perceptions of control, or lack thereof, impact consumption behavior and resulting estimates of price elasticity. A multivariate regression model demonstrates the significance of a water insecurity variable for data sets encompassing disparate water access. When accounting for insecurity, the R-squaed value improves and the marginal price a household is willing to pay becomes a significant predictor for the household quantity consumption. The model denotes that, with all other variables held equal, a household will buy more water when the users are more water insecure. Though the reasons behind this trend require further study, the findings suggest broad policy implications by demonstrating that water distribution practices in scarcity conditions can promote consumer welfare and efficient water use.

  11. Prediction of interest rate using CKLS model with stochastic parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ying, Khor Chia [Faculty of Computing and Informatics, Multimedia University, Jalan Multimedia, 63100 Cyberjaya, Selangor (Malaysia); Hin, Pooi Ah [Sunway University Business School, No. 5, Jalan Universiti, Bandar Sunway, 47500 Subang Jaya, Selangor (Malaysia)

    2014-06-19

    The Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff and Sanders (CKLS) model is a popular one-factor model for describing the spot interest rates. In this paper, the four parameters in the CKLS model are regarded as stochastic. The parameter vector φ{sup (j)} of four parameters at the (J+n)-th time point is estimated by the j-th window which is defined as the set consisting of the observed interest rates at the j′-th time point where j≤j′≤j+n. To model the variation of φ{sup (j)}, we assume that φ{sup (j)} depends on φ{sup (j−m)}, φ{sup (j−m+1)},…, φ{sup (j−1)} and the interest rate r{sub j+n} at the (j+n)-th time point via a four-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a [4(m+1)+1]-dimensional power-normal distribution. Treating the (j+n)-th time point as the present time point, we find a prediction interval for the future value r{sub j+n+1} of the interest rate at the next time point when the value r{sub j+n} of the interest rate is given. From the above four-dimensional conditional distribution, we also find a prediction interval for the future interest rate r{sub j+n+d} at the next d-th (d≥2) time point. The prediction intervals based on the CKLS model with stochastic parameters are found to have better ability of covering the observed future interest rates when compared with those based on the model with fixed parameters.

  12. Model parameters estimation and sensitivity by genetic algorithms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marseguerra, Marzio; Zio, Enrico; Podofillini, Luca

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we illustrate the possibility of extracting qualitative information on the importance of the parameters of a model in the course of a Genetic Algorithms (GAs) optimization procedure for the estimation of such parameters. The Genetic Algorithms' search of the optimal solution is performed according to procedures that resemble those of natural selection and genetics: an initial population of alternative solutions evolves within the search space through the four fundamental operations of parent selection, crossover, replacement, and mutation. During the search, the algorithm examines a large amount of solution points which possibly carries relevant information on the underlying model characteristics. A possible utilization of this information amounts to create and update an archive with the set of best solutions found at each generation and then to analyze the evolution of the statistics of the archive along the successive generations. From this analysis one can retrieve information regarding the speed of convergence and stabilization of the different control (decision) variables of the optimization problem. In this work we analyze the evolution strategy followed by a GA in its search for the optimal solution with the aim of extracting information on the importance of the control (decision) variables of the optimization with respect to the sensitivity of the objective function. The study refers to a GA search for optimal estimates of the effective parameters in a lumped nuclear reactor model of literature. The supporting observation is that, as most optimization procedures do, the GA search evolves towards convergence in such a way to stabilize first the most important parameters of the model and later those which influence little the model outputs. In this sense, besides estimating efficiently the parameters values, the optimization approach also allows us to provide a qualitative ranking of their importance in contributing to the model output. The

  13. Parameter sensitivity analysis of a lumped-parameter model of a chain of lymphangions in series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamalian, Samira; Bertram, Christopher D; Richardson, William J; Moore, James E

    2013-12-01

    Any disruption of the lymphatic system due to trauma or injury can lead to edema. There is no effective cure for lymphedema, partly because predictive knowledge of lymphatic system reactions to interventions is lacking. A well-developed model of the system could greatly improve our understanding of its function. Lymphangions, defined as the vessel segment between two valves, are the individual pumping units. Based on our previous lumped-parameter model of a chain of lymphangions, this study aimed to identify the parameters that affect the system output the most using a sensitivity analysis. The system was highly sensitive to minimum valve resistance, such that variations in this parameter caused an order-of-magnitude change in time-average flow rate for certain values of imposed pressure difference. Average flow rate doubled when contraction frequency was increased within its physiological range. Optimum lymphangion length was found to be some 13-14.5 diameters. A peak of time-average flow rate occurred when transmural pressure was such that the pressure-diameter loop for active contractions was centered near maximum passive vessel compliance. Increasing the number of lymphangions in the chain improved the pumping in the presence of larger adverse pressure differences. For a given pressure difference, the optimal number of lymphangions increased with the total vessel length. These results indicate that further experiments to estimate valve resistance more accurately are necessary. The existence of an optimal value of transmural pressure may provide additional guidelines for increasing pumping in areas affected by edema.

  14. Revised models and genetic parameter estimates for production and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Genetic parameters for production and reproduction traits in the Elsenburg Dormer sheep stud were estimated using records of 11743 lambs born between 1943 and 2002. An animal model with direct and maternal additive, maternal permanent and temporary environmental effects was fitted for traits considered traits of the ...

  15. Transformations among CE–CVM model parameters for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In the development of thermodynamic databases for multicomponent systems using the cluster expansion–cluster variation methods, we need to have a consistent procedure for expressing the model parameters (CECs) of a higher order system in terms of those of the lower order subsystems and to an independent set of ...

  16. Parameter Estimation for a Computable General Equilibrium Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Robinson, Sherman; Tarp, Finn

    We introduce a maximum entropy approach to parameter estimation for computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The approach applies information theory to estimating a system of nonlinear simultaneous equations. It has a number of advantages. First, it imposes all general equilibrium constraints...

  17. Comparison of parameter estimation algorithms in hydrological modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blasone, Roberta-Serena; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2006-01-01

    for these types of models, although at a more expensive computational cost. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the performance of a global and a local parameter optimization algorithm, respectively, the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) algorithm and the gradient-based Gauss...

  18. Parameter Estimation for a Computable General Equilibrium Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Robinson, Sherman; Tarp, Finn

    2002-01-01

    We introduce a maximum entropy approach to parameter estimation for computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The approach applies information theory to estimating a system of non-linear simultaneous equations. It has a number of advantages. First, it imposes all general equilibrium constraints...

  19. Constraint on Parameters of Inverse Compton Scattering Model for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    J. Astrophys. Astr. (2011) 32, 299–300 c Indian Academy of Sciences. Constraint on Parameters of Inverse Compton Scattering Model for PSR B2319+60. H. G. Wang. ∗. & M. Lv. Center for Astrophysics,Guangzhou University, Guangzhou, China. ∗ e-mail: cosmic008@yahoo.com.cn. Abstract. Using the multifrequency radio ...

  20. Modeling Source Water Threshold Exceedances with Extreme Value Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajagopalan, B.; Samson, C.; Summers, R. S.

    2016-12-01

    Variability in surface water quality, influenced by seasonal and long-term climate changes, can impact drinking water quality and treatment. In particular, temperature and precipitation can impact surface water quality directly or through their influence on streamflow and dilution capacity. Furthermore, they also impact land surface factors, such as soil moisture and vegetation, which can in turn affect surface water quality, in particular, levels of organic matter in surface waters which are of concern. All of these will be exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change. While some source water quality parameters, particularly Total Organic Carbon (TOC) and bromide concentrations, are not directly regulated for drinking water, these parameters are precursors to the formation of disinfection byproducts (DBPs), which are regulated in drinking water distribution systems. These DBPs form when a disinfectant, added to the water to protect public health against microbial pathogens, most commonly chlorine, reacts with dissolved organic matter (DOM), measured as TOC or dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and inorganic precursor materials, such as bromide. Therefore, understanding and modeling the extremes of TOC and Bromide concentrations is of critical interest for drinking water utilities. In this study we develop nonstationary extreme value analysis models for threshold exceedances of source water quality parameters, specifically TOC and bromide concentrations. In this, the threshold exceedances are modeled as Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) whose parameters vary as a function of climate and land surface variables - thus, enabling to capture the temporal nonstationarity. We apply these to model threshold exceedance of source water TOC and bromide concentrations at two locations with different climate and find very good performance.

  1. Monte Carlo analysis of field water flow comparing uni- and bimodal effective hydraulic parameters for structured soil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coppola, A; Basile, A; Comegna, A; Lamaddalena, N

    2009-02-16

    Soil structure critically affects the hydrological behaviour of soils. In this paper, we examined the impact of areal heterogeneity of hydraulic properties of a structured soil on soil ensemble behaviour for various soil water flow processes with different top boundary conditions (redistribution and drainage plus evaporation and infiltration). Using a numerical solution of the Richards' equation in a stochastic framework, the ensemble characteristics and flow dynamics were studied for drying and wetting processes observed during a time interval of ten days when a series of relatively intense rainfall events occurred. The effects of using unimodal and bimodal interpretative models of hydraulic properties on the ensemble hydrological behaviour of the soil were illustrated by comparing predictions to mean water contents measured over time in several sites at field scale. Although the differences between unimodal and bimodal fitting are not significant in terms of goodness of fit, the differences in process predictions are considerable with the bimodal soil simulating water content measurements much better than unimodal soil. We also investigated the relative contribution of the soil variability of each parameter on the variance of the water contents obtained as the main output of the stochastic simulations. The variability of the structural parameter, weighting the two pore space fractions in the bimodal interpretative model, has the largest contribution to water content variance. The contribution of each parameter depends only partly on the coefficient of variation, much more on the sensitivity of the model to the parameters and on the flow process being observed. We observed that the contribution of the retention parameters to uncertainty increases during drainage processes; the opposite occurs with the hydraulic conductivity parameters.

  2. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-01-01

    This analysis is one of the nine reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003a) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents a set of input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. This report, ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2003b). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development at the time this report is issued and therefore not available at that time. This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this analysis report. This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading, which is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Measurements of mass loading are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air surrounding crops and concentrations in air inhaled by a receptor. Concentrations in air to which the

  3. Integrating microbial diversity in soil carbon dynamic models parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louis, Benjamin; Menasseri-Aubry, Safya; Leterme, Philippe; Maron, Pierre-Alain; Viaud, Valérie

    2015-04-01

    Faced with the numerous concerns about soil carbon dynamic, a large quantity of carbon dynamic models has been developed during the last century. These models are mainly in the form of deterministic compartment models with carbon fluxes between compartments represented by ordinary differential equations. Nowadays, lots of them consider the microbial biomass as a compartment of the soil organic matter (carbon quantity). But the amount of microbial carbon is rarely used in the differential equations of the models as a limiting factor. Additionally, microbial diversity and community composition are mostly missing, although last advances in soil microbial analytical methods during the two past decades have shown that these characteristics play also a significant role in soil carbon dynamic. As soil microorganisms are essential drivers of soil carbon dynamic, the question about explicitly integrating their role have become a key issue in soil carbon dynamic models development. Some interesting attempts can be found and are dominated by the incorporation of several compartments of different groups of microbial biomass in terms of functional traits and/or biogeochemical compositions to integrate microbial diversity. However, these models are basically heuristic models in the sense that they are used to test hypotheses through simulations. They have rarely been confronted to real data and thus cannot be used to predict realistic situations. The objective of this work was to empirically integrate microbial diversity in a simple model of carbon dynamic through statistical modelling of the model parameters. This work is based on available experimental results coming from a French National Research Agency program called DIMIMOS. Briefly, 13C-labelled wheat residue has been incorporated into soils with different pedological characteristics and land use history. Then, the soils have been incubated during 104 days and labelled and non-labelled CO2 fluxes have been measured at ten

  4. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-09-24

    This analysis is one of the nine reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003a) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents a set of input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. This report, ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2003b). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development at the time this report is issued and therefore not available at that time. This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this analysis report. This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading, which is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Measurements of mass loading are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air surrounding crops and concentrations in air

  5. Parameters influencing deposit estimation when using water sensitive papers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emanuele Cerruto

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the study was to assess the possibility of using water sensitive papers (WSP to estimate the amount of deposit on the target when varying the spray characteristics. To identify the main quantities influencing the deposit, some simplifying hypotheses were applied to simulate WSP behaviour: log-normal distribution of the diameters of the drops and circular stains randomly placed on the images. A very large number (4704 of images of WSPs were produced by means of simulation. The images were obtained by simulating drops of different arithmetic mean diameter (40-300 μm, different coefficient of variation (0.1-1.5, and different percentage of covered surface (2-100%, not considering overlaps. These images were considered to be effective WSP images and then analysed using image processing software in order to measure the percentage of covered surface, the number of particles, and the area of each particle; the deposit was then calculated. These data were correlated with those used to produce the images, varying the spray characteristics. As far as the drop populations are concerned, a classification based on the volume median diameter only should be avoided, especially in case of high variability. This, in fact, results in classifying sprays with very low arithmetic mean diameter as extremely or ultra coarse. The WSP image analysis shows that the relation between simulated and computed percentage of covered surface is independent of the type of spray, whereas impact density and unitary deposit can be estimated from the computed percentage of covered surface only if the spray characteristics (arithmetic mean and coefficient of variation of the drop diameters are known. These data can be estimated by analysing the particles on the WSP images. The results of a validation test show good agreement between simulated and computed deposits, testified by a high (0.93 coefficient of determination.

  6. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    K. Rasmuson; K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-09-14

    This analysis is one of 10 technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) (i.e., the biosphere model). It documents development of agricultural and environmental input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters.

  7. Estimating model parameters in nonautonomous chaotic systems using synchronization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Xiaoli; Xu, Wei; Sun, Zhongkui

    2007-01-01

    In this Letter, a technique is addressed for estimating unknown model parameters of multivariate, in particular, nonautonomous chaotic systems from time series of state variables. This technique uses an adaptive strategy for tracking unknown parameters in addition to a linear feedback coupling for synchronizing systems, and then some general conditions, by means of the periodic version of the LaSalle invariance principle for differential equations, are analytically derived to ensure precise evaluation of unknown parameters and identical synchronization between the concerned experimental system and its corresponding receiver one. Exemplifies are presented by employing a parametrically excited 4D new oscillator and an additionally excited Ueda oscillator. The results of computer simulations reveal that the technique not only can quickly track the desired parameter values but also can rapidly respond to changes in operating parameters. In addition, the technique can be favorably robust against the effect of noise when the experimental system is corrupted by bounded disturbance and the normalized absolute error of parameter estimation grows almost linearly with the cutoff value of noise strength in simulation

  8. Constraining Parameter Uncertainty in Simulations of Water and Heat Dynamics in Seasonally Frozen Soil Using Limited Observed Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mousong Wu

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Water and energy processes in frozen soils are important for better understanding hydrologic processes and water resources management in cold regions. To investigate the water and energy balance in seasonally frozen soils, CoupModel combined with the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE method was used. Simulation work on water and heat processes in frozen soil in northern China during the 2012/2013 winter was conducted. Ensemble simulations through the Monte Carlo sampling method were generated for uncertainty analysis. Behavioral simulations were selected based on combinations of multiple model performance index criteria with respect to simulated soil water and temperature at four depths (5 cm, 15 cm, 25 cm, and 35 cm. Posterior distributions for parameters related to soil hydraulic, radiation processes, and heat transport indicated that uncertainties in both input and model structures could influence model performance in modeling water and heat processes in seasonally frozen soils. Seasonal courses in water and energy partitioning were obvious during the winter. Within the day-cycle, soil evaporation/condensation and energy distributions were well captured and clarified as an important phenomenon in the dynamics of the energy balance system. The combination of the CoupModel simulations with the uncertainty-based calibration method provides a way of understanding the seasonal courses of hydrology and energy processes in cold regions with limited data. Additional measurements may be used to further reduce the uncertainty of regulating factors during the different stages of freezing–thawing.

  9. Space geodetic techniques for global modeling of ionospheric peak parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alizadeh, M. Mahdi; Schuh, Harald; Schmidt, Michael

    The rapid development of new technological systems for navigation, telecommunication, and space missions which transmit signals through the Earth’s upper atmosphere - the ionosphere - makes the necessity of precise, reliable and near real-time models of the ionospheric parameters more crucial. In the last decades space geodetic techniques have turned into a capable tool for measuring ionospheric parameters in terms of Total Electron Content (TEC) or the electron density. Among these systems, the current space geodetic techniques, such as Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), Low Earth Orbiting (LEO) satellites, satellite altimetry missions, and others have found several applications in a broad range of commercial and scientific fields. This paper aims at the development of a three-dimensional integrated model of the ionosphere, by using various space geodetic techniques and applying a combination procedure for computation of the global model of electron density. In order to model ionosphere in 3D, electron density is represented as a function of maximum electron density (NmF2), and its corresponding height (hmF2). NmF2 and hmF2 are then modeled in longitude, latitude, and height using two sets of spherical harmonic expansions with degree and order 15. To perform the estimation, GNSS input data are simulated in such a way that the true position of the satellites are detected and used, but the STEC values are obtained through a simulation procedure, using the IGS VTEC maps. After simulating the input data, the a priori values required for the estimation procedure are calculated using the IRI-2012 model and also by applying the ray-tracing technique. The estimated results are compared with F2-peak parameters derived from the IRI model to assess the least-square estimation procedure and moreover, to validate the developed maps, the results are compared with the raw F2-peak parameters derived from the Formosat-3/Cosmic data.

  10. Temporal variability and climatology of hydrodynamic, water property and water quality parameters in the West Johor Strait of Singapore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behera, Manasa Ranjan; Chun, Cui; Palani, Sundarambal; Tkalich, Pavel

    2013-12-15

    The study presents a baseline variability and climatology study of measured hydrodynamic, water properties and some water quality parameters of West Johor Strait, Singapore at hourly-to-seasonal scales to uncover their dependency and correlation to one or more drivers. The considered parameters include, but not limited by sea surface elevation, current magnitude and direction, solar radiation and air temperature, water temperature, salinity, chlorophyll-a and turbidity. FFT (Fast Fourier Transform) analysis is carried out for the parameters to delineate relative effect of tidal and weather drivers. The group and individual correlations between the parameters are obtained by principal component analysis (PCA) and cross-correlation (CC) technique, respectively. The CC technique also identifies the dependency and time lag between driving natural forces and dependent water property and water quality parameters. The temporal variability and climatology of the driving forces and the dependent parameters are established at the hourly, daily, fortnightly and seasonal scales. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Modeling water transport in liquid feed direct methanol fuel cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Wenpeng; Wang, Chao-Yang

    Proper water management in direct methanol fuel cells (DMFCs) is very critical and complicated because of many interacting physicochemical phenomena. Among these, the liquid saturation in the cathode side is believed to have a very strong effect on water crossover through the membrane, a key parameter to determine water balance between the anode and cathode. In this paper, based on an interfacial liquid coverage model implemented in a three-dimensional (3D) two-phase DMFC model, the liquid saturation variations in the cathode are examined in detail and their effects on the net water transport coefficient through the membrane discussed.

  12. Modeling phosphorus in the Lake Allatoona watershed using SWAT: I. Developing phosphorus parameter values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radcliffe, D E; Lin, Z; Risse, L M; Romeis, J J; Jackson, C R

    2009-01-01

    Lake Allatoona is a large reservoir north of Atlanta, GA, that drains an area of about 2870 km2 scheduled for a phosphorus (P) total maximum daily load (TMDL). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model has been widely used for watershed-scale modeling of P, but there is little guidance on how to estimate P-related parameters, especially those related to in-stream P processes. In this paper, methods are demonstrated to individually estimate SWAT soil-related P parameters and to collectively estimate P parameters related to stream processes. Stream related parameters were obtained using the nutrient uptake length concept. In a manner similar to experiments conducted by stream ecologists, a small point source is simulated in a headwater sub-basin of the SWAT models, then the in-stream parameter values are adjusted collectively to get an uptake length of P similar to the values measured in the streams in the region. After adjusting the in-stream parameters, the P uptake length estimated in the simulations ranged from 53 to 149 km compared to uptake lengths measured by ecologists in the region of 11 to 85 km. Once the a priori P-related parameter set was developed, the SWAT models of main tributaries to Lake Allatoona were calibrated for daily transport. Models using SWAT P parameters derived from the methods in this paper outperformed models using default parameter values when predicting total P (TP) concentrations in streams during storm events and TP annual loads to Lake Allatoona.

  13. Investigation of RADTRAN Stop Model input parameters for truck stops

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Griego, N.R.; Smith, J.D.; Neuhauser, K.S.

    1996-01-01

    RADTRAN is a computer code for estimating the risks and consequences as transport of radioactive materials (RAM). RADTRAN was developed and is maintained by Sandia National Laboratories for the US Department of Energy (DOE). For incident-free transportation, the dose to persons exposed while the shipment is stopped is frequently a major percentage of the overall dose. This dose is referred to as Stop Dose and is calculated by the Stop Model. Because stop dose is a significant portion of the overall dose associated with RAM transport, the values used as input for the Stop Model are important. Therefore, an investigation of typical values for RADTRAN Stop Parameters for truck stops was performed. The resulting data from these investigations were analyzed to provide mean values, standard deviations, and histograms. Hence, the mean values can be used when an analyst does not have a basis for selecting other input values for the Stop Model. In addition, the histograms and their characteristics can be used to guide statistical sampling techniques to measure sensitivity of the RADTRAN calculated Stop Dose to the uncertainties in the stop model input parameters. This paper discusses the details and presents the results of the investigation of stop model input parameters at truck stops

  14. Drinking Water Temperature Modelling in Domestic Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Moerman, A.; Blokker, M.; Vreeburg, J.; van der Hoek, J.P.

    2014-01-01

    Domestic water supply systems are the final stage of the transport process to deliver potable water to the customers’ tap. Under the influence of temperature, residence time and pipe materials the drinking water quality can change while the water passes the domestic drinking water system. According to the Dutch Drinking Water Act the drinking water temperature may not exceed the 25 °C threshold at point-of-use level. This paper provides a mathematical approach to model the heating of drinking...

  15. Four-parameter analytical local model potential for atoms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fei, Yu; Jiu-Xun, Sun; Rong-Gang, Tian; Wei, Yang

    2009-01-01

    Analytical local model potential for modeling the interaction in an atom reduces the computational effort in electronic structure calculations significantly. A new four-parameter analytical local model potential is proposed for atoms Li through Lr, and the values of four parameters are shell-independent and obtained by fitting the results of X a method. At the same time, the energy eigenvalues, the radial wave functions and the total energies of electrons are obtained by solving the radial Schrödinger equation with a new form of potential function by Numerov's numerical method. The results show that our new form of potential function is suitable for high, medium and low Z atoms. A comparison among the new potential function and other analytical potential functions shows the greater flexibility and greater accuracy of the present new potential function. (atomic and molecular physics)

  16. Parameter Identification of the 2-Chlorophenol Oxidation Model Using Improved Differential Search Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guang-zhou Chen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Parameter identification plays a crucial role for simulating and using model. This paper firstly carried out the sensitivity analysis of the 2-chlorophenol oxidation model in supercritical water using the Monte Carlo method. Then, to address the nonlinearity of the model, two improved differential search (DS algorithms were proposed to carry out the parameter identification of the model. One strategy is to adopt the Latin hypercube sampling method to replace the uniform distribution of initial population; the other is to combine DS with simplex method. The results of sensitivity analysis reveal the sensitivity and the degree of difficulty identified for every model parameter. Furthermore, the posteriori probability distribution of parameters and the collaborative relationship between any two parameters can be obtained. To verify the effectiveness of the improved algorithms, the optimization performance of improved DS in kinetic parameter estimation is studied and compared with that of the basic DS algorithm, differential evolution, artificial bee colony optimization, and quantum-behaved particle swarm optimization. And the experimental results demonstrate that the DS with the Latin hypercube sampling method does not present better performance, while the hybrid methods have the advantages of strong global search ability and local search ability and are more effective than the other algorithms.

  17. Review of Watershed Water Quality Models

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Deliman, Patrick

    1999-01-01

    .... Several available watershed water quality models were reviewed and rated with regard to their potential in being utilized as the building block for the development of a Corps of Engineers watershed water quality model...

  18. Effect of water quality parameters on the distribution of Pleuromamma (Copepoda-Calanoida) species in the Indian Ocean: A statistical approach

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Jayalakshmy, V.K.; Saraswathy, M.; Nair, M.

    on species’ abundance and predictive step-up multiple regression models of water quality parameters: temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen and their first order interaction effects on Pleuromamma species’ abundance, were carried out in the regions, off 10...

  19. Environmental parameters of the Tennessee River in Alabama. 2: Physical, chemical, and biological parameters. [biological and chemical effects of thermal pollution from nuclear power plants on water quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosing, L. M.

    1976-01-01

    Physical, chemical and biological water quality data from five sites in the Tennessee River, two in Guntersville Reservoir and three in Wheeler Reservoir were correlated with climatological data for three annual cycles. Two of the annual cycles are for the years prior to the Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant operations and one is for the first 14 months of Plant operations. A comparison of the results of the annual cycles indicates that two distinct physical conditions in the reservoirs occur, one during the warm months when the reservoirs are at capacity and one during the colder winter months when the reservoirs have been drawn-down for water storage during the rainy months and for weed control. The wide variations of physical and chemical parameters to which the biological organisms are subjected on an annual basis control the biological organisms and their population levels. A comparison of the parameters of the site below the Power plant indicates that the heated effluent from the plant operating with two of the three reactors has not had any effect on the organisms at this site. Recommendations given include the development of prediction mathematical models (statistical analysis) for the physical and chemical parameters under specific climatological conditions which affect biological organisms. Tabulated data of chemical analysis of water and organism populations studied is given.

  20. On the estimation of water pure compound parameters in association theories

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grenner, Andreas; Kontogeorgis, Georgios; Michelsen, Michael Locht

    2007-01-01

    Determination of the appropriate number of association sites and estimation of parameters for association (SAFT-type) theories is not a trivial matter. Building further on a recently published manuscript by Clark et al., this work investigates aspects of the parameter estimation for water using two...... different association theories. Their performance for various properties as well as against the results presented earlier is demonstrated....

  1. Modeling extreme events: Sample fraction adaptive choice in parameter estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neves, Manuela; Gomes, Ivette; Figueiredo, Fernanda; Gomes, Dora Prata

    2012-09-01

    When modeling extreme events there are a few primordial parameters, among which we refer the extreme value index and the extremal index. The extreme value index measures the right tail-weight of the underlying distribution and the extremal index characterizes the degree of local dependence in the extremes of a stationary sequence. Most of the semi-parametric estimators of these parameters show the same type of behaviour: nice asymptotic properties, but a high variance for small values of k, the number of upper order statistics to be used in the estimation, and a high bias for large values of k. This shows a real need for the choice of k. Choosing some well-known estimators of those parameters we revisit the application of a heuristic algorithm for the adaptive choice of k. The procedure is applied to some simulated samples as well as to some real data sets.

  2. Robust linear parameter varying induction motor control with polytopic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dalila Khamari

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with a robust controller for an induction motor which is represented as a linear parameter varying systems. To do so linear matrix inequality (LMI based approach and robust Lyapunov feedback controller are associated. This new approach is related to the fact that the synthesis of a linear parameter varying (LPV feedback controller for the inner loop take into account rotor resistance and mechanical speed as varying parameter. An LPV flux observer is also synthesized to estimate rotor flux providing reference to cited above regulator. The induction motor is described as a polytopic model because of speed and rotor resistance affine dependence their values can be estimated on line during systems operations. The simulation results are presented to confirm the effectiveness of the proposed approach where robustness stability and high performances have been achieved over the entire operating range of the induction motor.

  3. Model parameter learning using Kullback-Leibler divergence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chungwei; Marks, Tim K.; Pajovic, Milutin; Watanabe, Shinji; Tung, Chih-kuan

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we address the following problem: For a given set of spin configurations whose probability distribution is of the Boltzmann type, how do we determine the model coupling parameters? We demonstrate that directly minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence is an efficient method. We test this method against the Ising and XY models on the one-dimensional (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) lattices, and provide two estimators to quantify the model quality. We apply this method to two types of problems. First, we apply it to the real-space renormalization group (RG). We find that the obtained RG flow is sufficiently good for determining the phase boundary (within 1% of the exact result) and the critical point, but not accurate enough for critical exponents. The proposed method provides a simple way to numerically estimate amplitudes of the interactions typically truncated in the real-space RG procedure. Second, we apply this method to the dynamical system composed of self-propelled particles, where we extract the parameter of a statistical model (a generalized XY model) from a dynamical system described by the Viscek model. We are able to obtain reasonable coupling values corresponding to different noise strengths of the Viscek model. Our method is thus able to provide quantitative analysis of dynamical systems composed of self-propelled particles.

  4. Modern Modeling of Water Hammer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Urbanowicz Kamil

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Hydraulic equipment on board ships is common. It assists in the work of: steering gear, pitch propellers, watertight doors, cargo hatch covers, cargo and mooring winches, deck cranes, stern ramps etc. The damage caused by transient flows (which include among others water hammer are often impossible to repair at sea. Hence, it is very important to estimate the correct pressure runs and associated side effects during their design. The presented study compares the results of research on the impact of a simplified way of modeling the hydraulic resistance and simplified effective weighting functions build of two and three-terms on the estimated results of the pressure changes. As it turns out, simple effective two-terms weighting functions are able to accurately model the analyzed transients. The implementation of the presented method will soon allow current automatic protection of hydraulic systems of the adverse effects associated with frequent elevated and reduced pressures.

  5. Biosphere modelling for a HLW repository - scenario and parameter variations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grogan, H.

    1985-03-01

    In Switzerland high-level radioactive wastes have been considered for disposal in deep-lying crystalline formations. The individual doses to man resulting from radionuclides entering the biosphere via groundwater transport are calculated. The main recipient area modelled, which constitutes the base case, is a broad gravel terrace sited along the south bank of the river Rhine. An alternative recipient region, a small valley with a well, is also modelled. A number of parameter variations are performed in order to ascertain their impact on the doses. Finally two scenario changes are modelled somewhat simplistically, these consider different prevailing climates, namely tundra and a warmer climate than present. In the base case negligibly low doses to man in the long term, resulting from the existence of a HLW repository have been calculated. Cs-135 results in the largest dose (8.4E-7 mrem/y at 6.1E+6 y) while Np-237 gives the largest dose from the actinides (3.6E-8 mrem/y). The response of the model to parameter variations cannot be easily predicted due to non-linear coupling of many of the parameters. However, the calculated doses were negligibly low in all cases as were those resulting from the two scenario variations. (author)

  6. Thermal Model Parameter Identification of a Lithium Battery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dirk Nissing

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The temperature of a Lithium battery cell is important for its performance, efficiency, safety, and capacity and is influenced by the environmental temperature and by the charging and discharging process itself. Battery Management Systems (BMS take into account this effect. As the temperature at the battery cell is difficult to measure, often the temperature is measured on or nearby the poles of the cell, although the accuracy of predicting the cell temperature with those quantities is limited. Therefore a thermal model of the battery is used in order to calculate and estimate the cell temperature. This paper uses a simple RC-network representation for the thermal model and shows how the thermal parameters are identified using input/output measurements only, where the load current of the battery represents the input while the temperatures at the poles represent the outputs of the measurement. With a single measurement the eight model parameters (thermal resistances, electric contact resistances, and heat capacities can be determined using the method of least-square. Experimental results show that the simple model with the identified parameters fits very accurately to the measurements.

  7. Identification of Important Parameter from Leachate Solid Waste Landfill on Water Quality, Case Study of Pesanggrahan River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanidar, R.; Hartono, D. M.; Moersidik, S. S.

    2018-03-01

    Cipayung Landfill takes waste generation from Depok City approximately ± 750 tons/day of solid waste. The south and west boundaries of the landfill is Pesanggarahan River which 200m faraway. The objectives of this study are to indicate an important parameter which greatly affects the water quality of Pesanggrahan River and purpose the dynamic model for improving our understanding of the dynamic behavior that captures the interactions and feedbacks important parameter in river in order to identify and assess the effects of the treated leachate from final solid waste disposal activity as it responds to changes over time in the river. The high concentrations of BOD and COD are not the only cause significantly affect the quality of the pesanggrahan water, it also because the river has been contaminated in the upstream area. It need the water quality model to support the effectiveness calculation of activities for preventing a selected the pollutant sources the model should be developed for simulating and predicting the trend of water quality performance in Pesanggrahan River which can potentially be used by policy makers in strategic management to sustain river water quality as raw drinking water.

  8. A Bayesian-based multilevel factorial analysis method for analyzing parameter uncertainty of hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Y. R.; Li, Y. P.; Huang, G. H.; Zhang, J. L.; Fan, Y. R.

    2017-10-01

    In this study, a Bayesian-based multilevel factorial analysis (BMFA) method is developed to assess parameter uncertainties and their effects on hydrological model responses. In BMFA, Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm is employed to approximate the posterior distributions of model parameters with Bayesian inference; factorial analysis (FA) technique is used for measuring the specific variations of hydrological responses in terms of posterior distributions to investigate the individual and interactive effects of parameters on model outputs. BMFA is then applied to a case study of the Jinghe River watershed in the Loess Plateau of China to display its validity and applicability. The uncertainties of four sensitive parameters, including soil conservation service runoff curve number to moisture condition II (CN2), soil hydraulic conductivity (SOL_K), plant available water capacity (SOL_AWC), and soil depth (SOL_Z), are investigated. Results reveal that (i) CN2 has positive effect on peak flow, implying that the concentrated rainfall during rainy season can cause infiltration-excess surface flow, which is an considerable contributor to peak flow in this watershed; (ii) SOL_K has positive effect on average flow, implying that the widely distributed cambisols can lead to medium percolation capacity; (iii) the interaction between SOL_AWC and SOL_Z has noticeable effect on the peak flow and their effects are dependent upon each other, which discloses that soil depth can significant influence the processes of plant uptake of soil water in this watershed. Based on the above findings, the significant parameters and the relationship among uncertain parameters can be specified, such that hydrological model's capability for simulating/predicting water resources of the Jinghe River watershed can be improved.

  9. Site-specific parameter values for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's food pathway dose model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamby, D.M.

    1992-01-01

    Routine operations at the Savannah River Site (SRS) in Western South Carolina result in radionuclide releases to the atmosphere and to the Savannah River. The resulting radiation doses to the off-site maximum individual and the off-site population within 80 km of the SRS are estimated on a yearly basis. These estimates are currently generated using dose models prescribed for the commercial nuclear power industry by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The NRC provides default values for dose-model parameters for facilities without resources to develop site-specific values. A survey of land- and water-use characteristics for the Savannah River area has been conducted to determine site-specific values for water recreation, consumption, and agricultural parameters used in the NRC Regulatory Guide 1.109 (1977) dosimetric models. These site parameters include local characteristics of meat, milk, and vegetable production; recreational and commercial activities on the Savannah River; and meat, milk, vegetable, and seafood consumption rates. This paper describes how parameter data were obtained at the Savannah River Site and the impacts of such data on off-site dose. Dose estimates using site-specific parameter values are compared to estimates using the NRC default values

  10. Identification of sensitive parameters in the modeling of SVOC reemission processes from soil to atmosphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loizeau, Vincent; Ciffroy, Philippe; Roustan, Yelva; Musson-Genon, Luc

    2014-09-15

    Semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) are subject to Long-Range Atmospheric Transport because of transport-deposition-reemission successive processes. Several experimental data available in the literature suggest that soil is a non-negligible contributor of SVOCs to atmosphere. Then coupling soil and atmosphere in integrated coupled models and simulating reemission processes can be essential for estimating atmospheric concentration of several pollutants. However, the sources of uncertainty and variability are multiple (soil properties, meteorological conditions, chemical-specific parameters) and can significantly influence the determination of reemissions. In order to identify the key parameters in reemission modeling and their effect on global modeling uncertainty, we conducted a sensitivity analysis targeted on the 'reemission' output variable. Different parameters were tested, including soil properties, partition coefficients and meteorological conditions. We performed EFAST sensitivity analysis for four chemicals (benzo-a-pyrene, hexachlorobenzene, PCB-28 and lindane) and different spatial scenari (regional and continental scales). Partition coefficients between air, solid and water phases are influent, depending on the precision of data and global behavior of the chemical. Reemissions showed a lower variability to soil parameters (soil organic matter and water contents at field capacity and wilting point). A mapping of these parameters at a regional scale is sufficient to correctly estimate reemissions when compared to other sources of uncertainty. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. HOM study and parameter calculation of the TESLA cavity model

    CERN Document Server

    Zeng, Ri-Hua; Gerigk Frank; Wang Guang-Wei; Wegner Rolf; Liu Rong; Schuh Marcel

    2010-01-01

    The Superconducting Proton Linac (SPL) is the project for a superconducting, high current H-accelerator at CERN. To find dangerous higher order modes (HOMs) in the SPL superconducting cavities, simulation and analysis for the cavity model using simulation tools are necessary. The. existing TESLA 9-cell cavity geometry data have been used for the initial construction of the models in HFSS. Monopole, dipole and quadrupole modes have been obtained by applying different symmetry boundaries on various cavity models. In calculation, scripting language in HFSS was used to create scripts to automatically calculate the parameters of modes in these cavity models (these scripts are also available in other cavities with different cell numbers and geometric structures). The results calculated automatically are then compared with the values given in the TESLA paper. The optimized cavity model with the minimum error will be taken as the base for further simulation of the SPL cavities.

  12. Global sensitivity analysis of a local water balance model predicting evaporation, water yield and drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Speich, Matthias; Zappa, Massimiliano; Lischke, Heike

    2017-04-01

    Evaporation and transpiration affect both catchment water yield and the growing conditions for vegetation. They are driven by climate, but also depend on vegetation, soil and land surface properties. In hydrological and land surface models, these properties may be included as constant parameters, or as state variables. Often, little is known about the effect of these variables on model outputs. In the present study, the effect of surface properties on evaporation was assessed in a global sensitivity analysis. To this effect, we developed a simple local water balance model combining state-of-the-art process formulations for evaporation, transpiration and soil water balance. The model is vertically one-dimensional, and the relative simplicity of its process formulations makes it suitable for integration in a spatially distributed model at regional scale. The main model outputs are annual total evaporation (TE, i.e. the sum of transpiration, soil evaporation and interception), and a drought index (DI), which is based on the ratio of actual and potential transpiration. This index represents the growing conditions for forest trees. The sensitivity analysis was conducted in two steps. First, a screening analysis was applied to identify unimportant parameters out of an initial set of 19 parameters. In a second step, a statistical meta-model was applied to a sample of 800 model runs, in which the values of the important parameters were varied. Parameter effect and interactions were analyzed with effects plots. The model was driven with forcing data from ten meteorological stations in Switzerland, representing a wide range of precipitation regimes across a strong temperature gradient. Of the 19 original parameters, eight were identified as important in the screening analysis. Both steps highlighted the importance of Plant Available Water Capacity (AWC) and Leaf Area Index (LAI). However, their effect varies greatly across stations. For example, while a transition from a

  13. Geostatistical analysis of space variation in underground water various quality parameters in Kłodzko water intake area (SW part of Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Namysłowska-Wilczyńska Barbara

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents selected results of research connected with the development of a (3D geostatistical hydrogeochemical model of the Kłodzko Drainage Basin, dedicated to the spatial variation in the different quality parameters of underground water in the water intake area (SW part of Poland. The research covers the period 2011-2012. Spatial analyses of the variation in various quality parameters, i.e., contents of: iron, manganese, ammonium ion, nitrate ion, phosphate ion, total organic carbon, pH redox potential and temperature, were carried out on the basis of the chemical determinations of the quality parameters of underground water samples taken from the wells in the water intake area. Spatial variation in the parameters was analyzed on the basis of data obtained (November 2011 from tests of water taken from 14 existing wells with a depth ranging from 9.5 to 38.0 m b.g.l. The latest data (January 2012 were obtained (gained from 3 new piezometers, made in other locations in the relevant area. A depth of these piezometers amounts to 9-10 m.

  14. Progressive Learning of Topic Modeling Parameters: A Visual Analytics Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Assady, Mennatallah; Sevastjanova, Rita; Sperrle, Fabian; Keim, Daniel; Collins, Christopher

    2018-01-01

    Topic modeling algorithms are widely used to analyze the thematic composition of text corpora but remain difficult to interpret and adjust. Addressing these limitations, we present a modular visual analytics framework, tackling the understandability and adaptability of topic models through a user-driven reinforcement learning process which does not require a deep understanding of the underlying topic modeling algorithms. Given a document corpus, our approach initializes two algorithm configurations based on a parameter space analysis that enhances document separability. We abstract the model complexity in an interactive visual workspace for exploring the automatic matching results of two models, investigating topic summaries, analyzing parameter distributions, and reviewing documents. The main contribution of our work is an iterative decision-making technique in which users provide a document-based relevance feedback that allows the framework to converge to a user-endorsed topic distribution. We also report feedback from a two-stage study which shows that our technique results in topic model quality improvements on two independent measures.

  15. The definition of input parameters for modelling of energetic subsystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ptacek M.

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper is a short review and a basic description of mathematical models of renewable energy sources which present individual investigated subsystems of a system created in Matlab/Simulink. It solves the physical and mathematical relationships of photovoltaic and wind energy sources that are often connected to the distribution networks. The fuel cell technology is much less connected to the distribution networks but it could be promising in the near future. Therefore, the paper informs about a new dynamic model of the low-temperature fuel cell subsystem, and the main input parameters are defined as well. Finally, the main evaluated and achieved graphic results for the suggested parameters and for all the individual subsystems mentioned above are shown.

  16. The definition of input parameters for modelling of energetic subsystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ptacek, M.

    2013-06-01

    This paper is a short review and a basic description of mathematical models of renewable energy sources which present individual investigated subsystems of a system created in Matlab/Simulink. It solves the physical and mathematical relationships of photovoltaic and wind energy sources that are often connected to the distribution networks. The fuel cell technology is much less connected to the distribution networks but it could be promising in the near future. Therefore, the paper informs about a new dynamic model of the low-temperature fuel cell subsystem, and the main input parameters are defined as well. Finally, the main evaluated and achieved graphic results for the suggested parameters and for all the individual subsystems mentioned above are shown.

  17. Propagation channel characterization, parameter estimation, and modeling for wireless communications

    CERN Document Server

    Yin, Xuefeng

    2016-01-01

    Thoroughly covering channel characteristics and parameters, this book provides the knowledge needed to design various wireless systems, such as cellular communication systems, RFID and ad hoc wireless communication systems. It gives a detailed introduction to aspects of channels before presenting the novel estimation and modelling techniques which can be used to achieve accurate models. To systematically guide readers through the topic, the book is organised in three distinct parts. The first part covers the fundamentals of the characterization of propagation channels, including the conventional single-input single-output (SISO) propagation channel characterization as well as its extension to multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) cases. Part two focuses on channel measurements and channel data post-processing. Wideband channel measurements are introduced, including the equipment, technology and advantages and disadvantages of different data acquisition schemes. The channel parameter estimation methods are ...

  18. Empirical flow parameters : a tool for hydraulic model validity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asquith, William H.; Burley, Thomas E.; Cleveland, Theodore G.

    2013-01-01

    The objectives of this project were (1) To determine and present from existing data in Texas, relations between observed stream flow, topographic slope, mean section velocity, and other hydraulic factors, to produce charts such as Figure 1 and to produce empirical distributions of the various flow parameters to provide a methodology to "check if model results are way off!"; (2) To produce a statistical regional tool to estimate mean velocity or other selected parameters for storm flows or other conditional discharges at ungauged locations (most bridge crossings) in Texas to provide a secondary way to compare such values to a conventional hydraulic modeling approach. (3.) To present ancillary values such as Froude number, stream power, Rosgen channel classification, sinuosity, and other selected characteristics (readily determinable from existing data) to provide additional information to engineers concerned with the hydraulic-soil-foundation component of transportation infrastructure.

  19. Mathematical models in the analysis of quality parameters to the Almendares river

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dominguez, J.; Borroto, J.; Hernandez, A.; Santiago, J.F.; CU)

    2003-01-01

    The river Almendares, one of the most important water bodies of the Havana City, is very polluted. The analysis of parameters as dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand is very helpful for the studies aimed to the recovery of the river. There is a growing recognition around the word that the water quality models are very useful tools to plan sanitary strategies for the handling of the contamination. In the present work, the advective, steady- state Streeter and Phelps model was validated to simulate the effect of the multiple-point and distributed sources on the carbonaceous oxygen demand, NH4 and dissolved oxygen. For modeling purposes the section of the river located between the point where the waste water treatment station Maria del Carmen discharges to the river and the Bridge El Bosque, was divided in 11 segments. The use of the 99mTc and the Rodamine WT as tracers allowed determining the hydrodynamic parameters necessary for modeling purposes. The validated model allows to predict the effect of the sanitary strategies on the water quality of the river

  20. Long-term effects of water pH changes on hematological parameters ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The aim of this study was to examine the effects of water pH changes on certain hematological parameters of fingerlings of common carp (Cyprinus carpio), in water with different pH (acidic and alkaline). Fingerlings of common carp were subjected to acidic (pH 5.5 and 6.5) and alkaline (pH 8.0, 8.5 and 9.0) water for 21 ...

  1. Global modelling of river water quality under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Franssen, Wietse H. P.; Yearsley, John R.

    2017-04-01

    Climate change will pose challenges on the quality of freshwater resources for human use and ecosystems for instance by changing the dilution capacity and by affecting the rate of chemical processes in rivers. Here we assess the impacts of climate change and induced streamflow changes on a selection of water quality parameters for river basins globally. We used the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and a newly developed global water quality module for salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand. The modelling framework was validated using observed records of streamflow, water temperature, chloride, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand for 1981-2010. VIC and the water quality module were then forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected General Circulation Model (GCM) output for the representative concentration pathways RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 to study water quality trends and identify critical regions (hotspots) of water quality deterioration for the 21st century.

  2. MR imaging of experimental subdural bleeding. Correlates of brain deformation and tissue water content, and changes in vital physiological parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orlin, J.R.; Thuomas, K.Aa.; Ponten, U.; Bergstroem, K.; Zwetnow, N.N.

    1997-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate morphological and physiological changes during acute lethal subdural bleeding in 2 models of anaesthetized dogs. Material and Methods: In model I, blood from the aorta was led into a collapsed subdural rubber balloon while in model II, the blood was directed into the subdural compartment over the left cerebral frontoparietal lobe. Eight vital physiological parameters were continuously registered. MR imaging visualized the compression and displacement of cerebral tissue, and assessed the dynamic changes in cerebral tissue water. Results: In model I, tissue herniation and compression of cerebral ventricles led to death at a haematoma volume corresponding to 8% of the intracranial volume. In model II, the extravasated blood progressed infratentorially and into the spinal sac with a volume that was 3 times larger than that of the lethal haematoma. Tissue water increased almost linearly during bleeding in both models. (orig.)

  3. CORRELATION STUDY AMONG WATER QUALITY PARAMETERS OF GROUNDWATER OF VALSAD DISTRICT OF SOUTH GUJARAT(INDIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. T. Vashi

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater samples were collected from five talukas of Valsad district for one year (from August 2008 to July 2009 and were analyzed for their physicochemical characteristics.  The present investigation is focused on  determination of parameters like pH, Colour, Electrical Conductivity (EC, Total Hardness (TH, Calcium (Ca, Magnesium (Mg, Total Alkalinity (TA, Total Dissolved Solids (TDS, Silica, Chloride, Sulphate, Fluoride, Sodium, Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD and metals like Copper (Cu and Manganese (Mn.  Correlation coefficients were determined to identify the highly correlated parameters and interrelated water quality parameters. Correlation matrix of Valsad district suggests that EC of groundwater is found to be significantly correlated with eight out of seventeen water quality parameters studied.  It may be suggested that the quality of Valsad district can be checked very effectively by controlling EC of water.

  4. A procedure for determining parameters of a simplified ligament model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, Jeff M; Callaghan, Jack P

    2018-01-03

    A previous mathematical model of ligament force-generation treated their behavior as a population of collagen fibres arranged in parallel. When damage was ignored in this model, an expression for ligament force in terms of the deflection, x, effective stiffness, k, mean collagen slack length, μ, and the standard deviation of slack lengths, σ, was obtained. We present a simple three-step method for determining the three model parameters (k, μ, and σ) from force-deflection data: (1) determine the equation of the line in the linear region of this curve, its slope is k and its x -intercept is -μ; (2) interpolate the force-deflection data when x is -μ to obtain F 0 ; (3) calculate σ with the equation σ=2πF 0 /k. Results from this method were in good agreement to those obtained from a least-squares procedure on experimental data - all falling within 6%. Therefore, parameters obtained using the proposed method provide a systematic way of reporting ligament parameters, or for obtaining an initial guess for nonlinear least-squares. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Modelling spatial-temporal and coordinative parameters in swimming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seifert, L; Chollet, D

    2009-07-01

    This study modelled the changes in spatial-temporal and coordinative parameters through race paces in the four swimming strokes. The arm and leg phases in simultaneous strokes (butterfly and breaststroke) and the inter-arm phases in alternating strokes (crawl and backstroke) were identified by video analysis to calculate the time gaps between propulsive phases. The relationships among velocity, stroke rate, stroke length and coordination were modelled by polynomial regression. Twelve elite male swimmers swam at four race paces. Quadratic regression modelled the changes in spatial-temporal and coordinative parameters with velocity increases for all four strokes. First, the quadratic regression between coordination and velocity showed changes common to all four strokes. Notably, the time gaps between the key points defining the beginning and end of the stroke phases decreased with increases in velocity, which led to decreases in glide times and increases in the continuity between propulsive phases. Conjointly, the quadratic regression among stroke rate, stroke length and velocity was similar to the changes in coordination, suggesting that these parameters may influence coordination. The main practical application for coaches and scientists is that ineffective time gaps can be distinguished from those that simply reflect an individual swimmer's profile by monitoring the glide times within a stroke cycle. In the case of ineffective time gaps, targeted training could improve the swimmer's management of glide time.

  6. Modeling water demand when households have multiple sources of water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coulibaly, Lassina; Jakus, Paul M.; Keith, John E.

    2014-07-01

    A significant portion of the world's population lives in areas where public water delivery systems are unreliable and/or deliver poor quality water. In response, people have developed important alternatives to publicly supplied water. To date, most water demand research has been based on single-equation models for a single source of water, with very few studies that have examined water demand from two sources of water (where all nonpublic system water sources have been aggregated into a single demand). This modeling approach leads to two outcomes. First, the demand models do not capture the full range of alternatives, so the true economic relationship among the alternatives is obscured. Second, and more seriously, economic theory predicts that demand for a good becomes more price-elastic as the number of close substitutes increases. If researchers artificially limit the number of alternatives studied to something less than the true number, the price elasticity estimate may be biased downward. This paper examines water demand in a region with near universal access to piped water, but where system reliability and quality is such that many alternative sources of water exist. In extending the demand analysis to four sources of water, we are able to (i) demonstrate why households choose the water sources they do, (ii) provide a richer description of the demand relationships among sources, and (iii) calculate own-price elasticity estimates that are more elastic than those generally found in the literature.

  7. Sensitivity of soil water content simulation to different methods of soil hydraulic parameter characterization as initial input values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezaei, Meisam; Seuntjens, Piet; Shahidi, Reihaneh; Joris, Ingeborg; Boënne, Wesley; Cornelis, Wim

    2016-04-01

    Soil hydraulic parameters, which can be derived from in situ and/or laboratory experiments, are key input parameters for modeling water flow in the vadose zone. In this study, we measured soil hydraulic properties with typical laboratory measurements and field tension infiltration experiments using Wooding's analytical solution and inverse optimization along the vertical direction within two typical podzol profiles with sand texture in a potato field. The objective was to identify proper sets of hydraulic parameters and to evaluate their relevance on hydrological model performance for irrigation management purposes. Tension disc infiltration experiments were carried out at five different depths for both profiles at consecutive negative pressure heads of 12, 6, 3 and 0.1 cm. At the same locations and depths undisturbed samples were taken to determine the water retention curve with hanging water column and pressure extractors and lab saturated hydraulic conductivity with the constant head method. Both approaches allowed to determine the Mualem-van Genuchten (MVG) hydraulic parameters (residual water content θr, saturated water content θs,, shape parameters α and n, and field or lab saturated hydraulic conductivity Kfs and Kls). Results demonstrated horizontal differences and vertical variability of hydraulic properties. Inverse optimization resulted in excellent matches between observed and fitted infiltration rates in combination with final water content at the end of the experiment, θf, using Hydrus 2D/3D. It also resulted in close correspondence of  and Kfs with those from Logsdon and Jaynes' (1993) solution of Wooding's equation. The MVG parameters Kfs and α estimated from the inverse solution (θr set to zero), were relatively similar to values from Wooding's solution which were used as initial value and the estimated θs corresponded to (effective) field saturated water content θf. We found the Gardner parameter αG to be related to the optimized van

  8. Entropy Parameter M in Modeling a Flow Duration Curve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Zhang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A flow duration curve (FDC is widely used for predicting water supply, hydropower, environmental flow, sediment load, and pollutant load. Among different methods of constructing an FDC, the entropy-based method, developed recently, is appealing because of its several desirable characteristics, such as simplicity, flexibility, and statistical basis. This method contains a parameter, called entropy parameter M, which constitutes the basis for constructing the FDC. Since M is related to the ratio of the average streamflow to the maximum streamflow which, in turn, is related to the drainage area, it may be possible to determine M a priori and construct an FDC for ungauged basins. This paper, therefore, analyzed the characteristics of M in both space and time using streamflow data from 73 gauging stations in the Brazos River basin, Texas, USA. Results showed that the M values were impacted by reservoir operation and possibly climate change. The values were fluctuating, but relatively stable, after the operation of the reservoirs. Parameter M was found to change inversely with the ratio of average streamflow to the maximum streamflow. When there was an extreme event, there occurred a jump in the M value. Further, spatially, M had a larger value if the drainage area was small.

  9. Wireless model predictive control: Application to water-level system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramdane Hedjar

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This article deals with wireless model predictive control of a water-level control system. The objective of the model predictive control algorithm is to constrain the control signal inside saturation limits and maintain the water level around the desired level. Linear modeling of any nonlinear plant leads to parameter uncertainties and non-modeled dynamics in the linearized mathematical model. These uncertainties induce a steady-state error in the output response of the water level. To eliminate this steady-state error and increase the robustness of the control algorithm, an integral action is included in the closed loop. To control the water-level system remotely, the communication between the controller and the process is performed using radio channel. To validate the proposed scheme, simulation and real-time implementation of the algorithm have been conducted, and the results show the effectiveness of wireless model predictive control with integral action.

  10. The Impact of Three Factors on the Recovery of Item Parameters for the Three-Parameter Logistic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kyung Yong; Lee, Won-Chan

    2017-01-01

    This article provides a detailed description of three factors (specification of the ability distribution, numerical integration, and frame of reference for the item parameter estimates) that might affect the item parameter estimation of the three-parameter logistic model, and compares five item calibration methods, which are combinations of the…

  11. Surrogate based approaches to parameter inference in ocean models

    KAUST Repository

    Knio, Omar

    2016-01-06

    This talk discusses the inference of physical parameters using model surrogates. Attention is focused on the use of sampling schemes to build suitable representations of the dependence of the model response on uncertain input data. Non-intrusive spectral projections and regularized regressions are used for this purpose. A Bayesian inference formalism is then applied to update the uncertain inputs based on available measurements or observations. To perform the update, we consider two alternative approaches, based on the application of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods or of adjoint-based optimization techniques. We outline the implementation of these techniques to infer dependence of wind drag, bottom drag, and internal mixing coefficients.

  12. Information Theoretic Tools for Parameter Fitting in Coarse Grained Models

    KAUST Repository

    Kalligiannaki, Evangelia

    2015-01-07

    We study the application of information theoretic tools for model reduction in the case of systems driven by stochastic dynamics out of equilibrium. The model/dimension reduction is considered by proposing parametrized coarse grained dynamics and finding the optimal parameter set for which the relative entropy rate with respect to the atomistic dynamics is minimized. The minimization problem leads to a generalization of the force matching methods to non equilibrium systems. A multiplicative noise example reveals the importance of the diffusion coefficient in the optimization problem.

  13. Predicting Risk from Radon in Source Waters from Water Quality Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overall, 47 groundwater samples were collected from 45 small community water systems (CWSs) and analyzed for radon and other water quality constituents. In general, groundwater from unconsolidated deposits and sedimentary rocks had lower average radon levels (ranging from 223 to...

  14. Inverse modeling with RZWQM2 to predict water quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, Bernard T.; Malone, Robert W.; Ma, Liwang; Green, Christopher T.; Fienen, Michael N.; Jaynes, Dan B.

    2011-01-01

    This chapter presents guidelines for autocalibration of the Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM2) by inverse modeling using PEST parameter estimation software (Doherty, 2010). Two sites with diverse climate and management were considered for simulation of N losses by leaching and in drain flow: an almond [Prunus dulcis (Mill.) D.A. Webb] orchard in the San Joaquin Valley, California and the Walnut Creek watershed in central Iowa, which is predominantly in corn (Zea mays L.)–soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] rotation. Inverse modeling provides an objective statistical basis for calibration that involves simultaneous adjustment of model parameters and yields parameter confidence intervals and sensitivities. We describe operation of PEST in both parameter estimation and predictive analysis modes. The goal of parameter estimation is to identify a unique set of parameters that minimize a weighted least squares objective function, and the goal of predictive analysis is to construct a nonlinear confidence interval for a prediction of interest by finding a set of parameters that maximizes or minimizes the prediction while maintaining the model in a calibrated state. We also describe PEST utilities (PAR2PAR, TSPROC) for maintaining ordered relations among model parameters (e.g., soil root growth factor) and for post-processing of RZWQM2 outputs representing different cropping practices at the Iowa site. Inverse modeling provided reasonable fits to observed water and N fluxes and directly benefitted the modeling through: (i) simultaneous adjustment of multiple parameters versus one-at-a-time adjustment in manual approaches; (ii) clear indication by convergence criteria of when calibration is complete; (iii) straightforward detection of nonunique and insensitive parameters, which can affect the stability of PEST and RZWQM2; and (iv) generation of confidence intervals for uncertainty analysis of parameters and model predictions. Composite scaled sensitivities, which

  15. A feasibility study on the estimation of water retention parameters from surface nuclear magnetic resonance measurements in the vadose zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costabel, S.; Guenther, T.; Meyer, U.

    2012-12-01

    The surface nuclear magnetic resonance (SNMR) method is usually applied for groundwater prospection. Its unique property - distinct from other hydrogeophysical methods - is the direct sensitivity to water content in the subsurface. The inversion of SNMR data yields the subsurface water content distribution without the need of a specific petrophysical model. Recent developments in instrumentation, i.e., decreased instrumental dead times and advanced noise cancellation strategies enable the use of this method for investigating the vadose zone. The first attempt to interpret SNMR measurements with the focus on hydraulic parameters is the inversion approach of Costabel and Yaramanci (2011).Their inversion directly provides WR parameters by parameterizing the capillary fringe (CF) by means of soil-physical water retention (WR) models. We have developed and investigated this inversion approach further to assess its general applicability. A sensitivity study based on both synthetic and real data analyzes the resolution properties, the uncertainties and the covariances of the involved parameters: the saturated and the residual water content, a parameter for the height of the CF, a parameter describing the gradient of the water content increase in the CF, and the water table. We found that it is not meaningful to invert for all parameters at once. At least, an estimate of the CF's height or the water table must be available as a-priori information. Otherwise the CF inversion cannot reliably be applied, even when the noise level is unrealistically low. The water content of the saturated zone is generally estimated with high accuracy, i.e., errors of less than 1%. Depending on the actual noise level, the uncertainties of the other WR parameters are in the range of 10 to 100%. We conclude that, for moderate noise conditions, this kind of inversion provides WR parameters sufficiently accurate to estimate the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity roughly. However, a serious

  16. Finding the effective parameter perturbations in atmospheric models: the LORENZ63 model as case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moolenaar, H.E.; Selten, F.M.

    2004-01-01

    Climate models contain numerous parameters for which the numeric values are uncertain. In the context of climate simulation and prediction, a relevant question is what range of climate outcomes is possible given the range of parameter uncertainties. Which parameter perturbation changes the climate

  17. Using an inverse modelling approach to evaluate the water retention in a simple water harvesting technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Verbist

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available In arid and semi-arid zones, runoff harvesting techniques are often applied to increase the water retention and infiltration on steep slopes. Additionally, they act as an erosion control measure to reduce land degradation hazards. Nevertheless, few efforts were observed to quantify the water harvesting processes of these techniques and to evaluate their efficiency. In this study, a combination of detailed field measurements and modelling with the HYDRUS-2D software package was used to visualize the effect of an infiltration trench on the soil water content of a bare slope in northern Chile. Rainfall simulations were combined with high spatial and temporal resolution water content monitoring in order to construct a useful dataset for inverse modelling purposes. Initial estimates of model parameters were provided by detailed infiltration and soil water retention measurements. Four different measurement techniques were used to determine the saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ksat independently. The tension infiltrometer measurements proved a good estimator of the Ksat value and a proxy for those measured under simulated rainfall, whereas the pressure and constant head well infiltrometer measurements showed larger variability. Six different parameter optimization functions were tested as a combination of soil-water content, water retention and cumulative infiltration data. Infiltration data alone proved insufficient to obtain high model accuracy, due to large scatter on the data set, and water content data were needed to obtain optimized effective parameter sets with small confidence intervals. Correlation between the observed soil water content and the simulated values was as high as R2=0.93 for ten selected observation points used in the model calibration phase, with overall correlation for the 22 observation points equal to 0.85. The model results indicate that the infiltration trench has a

  18. Identification of relaxation parameter of a physical model of vein from fluid transient experiment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hromádka David

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a new fluid transient inflation experiment applied on a physical model of vein (short latex tube, 5mm diameter. Aim of experiments is assessment of wall viscous behaviour from attenuated pulsation of the tested sample. Experimental data obtained from dynamic test are compared with numerical simulation and a viscoelastic parameter of Haslach constitutive model is identified. It is verified that the viscoelasticity of wall has a greater impact to the damping of pulsation than the viscosity of water filling the sample and the attached capillary. Volume of sample depends on internal pressure measured by a pressure transducer. The maximum dissipation constitutive model of viscoelastic wall sample was employed for description of viscoelastic behaviour. Frequency of natural oscillation of pressure is determined by inertia of water column within the tested sample and attached capillary and by the tested specimen stiffness. The pressure pulsations are initiated by a sudden pressure drop at water surface.

  19. Comparison of parameter estimation algorithms in hydrological modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blasone, Roberta-Serena; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2006-01-01

    Local search methods have been applied successfully in calibration of simple groundwater models, but might fail in locating the optimum for models of increased complexity, due to the more complex shape of the response surface. Global search algorithms have been demonstrated to perform well...... for these types of models, although at a more expensive computational cost. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the performance of a global and a local parameter optimization algorithm, respectively, the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) algorithm and the gradient-based Gauss......-Marquardt-Levenberg algorithm (implemented in the PEST software), when applied to a steady-state and a transient groundwater model. The results show that PEST can have severe problems in locating the global optimum and in being trapped in local regions of attractions. The global SCE procedure is, in general, more effective...

  20. Flare parameters inferred from a 3D loop model database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuambe, Valente A.; Costa, J. E. R.; Simões, P. J. A.

    2018-04-01

    We developed a database of pre-calculated flare images and spectra exploring a set of parameters which describe the physical characteristics of coronal loops and accelerated electron distribution. Due to the large number of parameters involved in describing the geometry and the flaring atmosphere in the model used (Costa et al. 2013), we built a large database of models (˜250 000) to facilitate the flare analysis. The geometry and characteristics of non-thermal electrons are defined on a discrete grid with spatial resolution greater than 4 arcsec. The database was constructed based on general properties of known solar flares and convolved with instrumental resolution to replicate the observations from the Nobeyama radio polarimeter (NoRP) spectra and Nobeyama radio-heliograph (NoRH) brightness maps. Observed spectra and brightness distribution maps are easily compared with the modelled spectra and images in the database, indicating a possible range of solutions. The parameter search efficiency in this finite database is discussed. Eight out of ten parameters analysed for one thousand simulated flare searches were recovered with a relative error of less than 20 per cent on average. In addition, from the analysis of the observed correlation between NoRH flare sizes and intensities at 17 GHz, some statistical properties were derived. From these statistics the energy spectral index was found to be δ ˜ 3, with non-thermal electron densities showing a peak distribution ⪅107 cm-3, and Bphotosphere ⪆2000 G. Some bias for larger loops with heights as great as ˜2.6 × 109 cm, and looptop events were noted. An excellent match of the spectrum and the brightness distribution at 17 and 34 GHz of the 2002 May 31 flare, is presented as well.

  1. Parameter and uncertainty estimation for mechanistic, spatially explicit epidemiological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finger, Flavio; Schaefli, Bettina; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2014-05-01

    Epidemiological models can be a crucially important tool for decision-making during disease outbreaks. The range of possible applications spans from real-time forecasting and allocation of health-care resources to testing alternative intervention mechanisms such as vaccines, antibiotics or the improvement of sanitary conditions. Our spatially explicit, mechanistic models for cholera epidemics have been successfully applied to several epidemics including, the one that struck Haiti in late 2010 and is still ongoing. Calibration and parameter estimation of such models represents a major challenge because of properties unusual in traditional geoscientific domains such as hydrology. Firstly, the epidemiological data available might be subject to high uncertainties due to error-prone diagnosis as well as manual (and possibly incomplete) data collection. Secondly, long-term time-series of epidemiological data are often unavailable. Finally, the spatially explicit character of the models requires the comparison of several time-series of model outputs with their real-world counterparts, which calls for an appropriate weighting scheme. It follows that the usual assumption of a homoscedastic Gaussian error distribution, used in combination with classical calibration techniques based on Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, is likely to be violated, whereas the construction of an appropriate formal likelihood function seems close to impossible. Alternative calibration methods, which allow for accurate estimation of total model uncertainty, particularly regarding the envisaged use of the models for decision-making, are thus needed. Here we present the most recent developments regarding methods for parameter and uncertainty estimation to be used with our mechanistic, spatially explicit models for cholera epidemics, based on informal measures of goodness of fit.

  2. Nationwide water availability data for energy-water modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tidwell, Vincent Carroll [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Zemlick, Katie M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Klise, Geoffrey Taylor [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2013-11-01

    The purpose of this effort is to explore where the availability of water could be a limiting factor in the siting of new electric power generation. To support this analysis, water availability is mapped at the county level for the conterminous United States (3109 counties). Five water sources are individually considered, including unappropriated surface water, unappropriated groundwater, appropriated water (western U.S. only), municipal wastewater and brackish groundwater. Also mapped is projected growth in non-thermoelectric consumptive water demand to 2035. Finally, the water availability metrics are accompanied by estimated costs associated with utilizing that particular supply of water. Ultimately these data sets are being developed for use in the National Renewable Energy Laboratories' (NREL) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, designed to investigate the likely deployment of new energy installations in the U.S., subject to a number of constraints, particularly water.

  3. Some notes on unobserved parameters (frailties) in reliability modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cha, Ji Hwan; Finkelstein, Maxim

    2014-01-01

    Unobserved random quantities (frailties) often appear in various reliability problems especially when dealing with the failure rates of items from heterogeneous populations. As the failure rate is a conditional characteristic, the distributions of these random quantities, similar to Bayesian approaches, are updated in accordance with the corresponding survival information. At some instances, apart from a statistical meaning, frailties can have also useful interpretations describing the underlying lifetime model. We discuss and clarify these issues in reliability context and present and analyze several meaningful examples. We consider the proportional hazards model with a random factor; the stress–strength model, where the unobserved strength of a system can be viewed as frailty; a parallel system with a random number of components and, finally, the first passage time problem for the Wiener process with random parameters. - Highlights: • We discuss and clarify the notion of frailty in reliability context and present and analyze several meaningful examples. • The paper provides a new insight and general perspective on reliability models with unobserved parameters. • The main message of the paper is well illustrated by several meaningful examples and emphasized by detailed discussion

  4. Uncertainty from synergistic effects of multiple parameters in the Johnson and Ettinger (1991) vapor intrusion model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tillman, Fred D.; Weaver, James W.

    Migration of volatile chemicals from the subsurface into overlying buildings is known as vapor intrusion (VI). Under certain circumstances, people living in homes above contaminated soil or ground water may be exposed to harmful levels of these vapors. VI is a particularly difficult pathway to assess, as challenges exist in delineating subsurface contributions to measured indoor-air concentrations as well as in adequate characterization of subsurface parameters necessary to calibrate a predictive flow and transport model. Often, a screening-level model is employed to determine if a potential indoor inhalation exposure pathway exists and, if such a pathway is complete, whether long-term exposure increases the occupants' risk for cancer or other toxic effects to an unacceptable level. A popular screening-level algorithm currently in wide use in the United States, Canada and the UK for making such determinations is the "Johnson and Ettinger" (J&E) model. Concern exists over using the J&E model for deciding whether or not further action is necessary at sites as many parameters are not routinely measured (or are un-measurable). Many screening decisions are then made based on simulations using "best estimate" look-up parameter values. While research exists on the sensitivity of the J&E model to individual parameter uncertainty, little published information is available on the combined effects of multiple uncertain parameters and their effect on screening decisions. This paper presents results of multiple-parameter uncertainty analyses using the J&E model to evaluate risk to humans from VI. Software was developed to produce automated uncertainty analyses of the model. Results indicate an increase in predicted cancer risk from multiple-parameter uncertainty by nearly a factor of 10 compared with single-parameter uncertainty. Additionally, a positive skew in model response to variation of some parameters was noted for both single and multiple parameter uncertainty analyses

  5. SAC-SMA a priori parameter differences and their impact on distributed hydrologic model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ziya; Koren, Victor; Reed, Seann; Smith, Michael; Zhang, Yu; Moreda, Fekadu; Cosgrove, Brian

    2012-02-01

    SummaryDeriving a priori gridded parameters is an important step in the development and deployment of an operational distributed hydrologic model. Accurate a priori parameters can reduce the manual calibration effort and/or speed up the automatic calibration process, reduce calibration uncertainty, and provide valuable information at ungauged locations. Underpinned by reasonable parameter data sets, distributed hydrologic modeling can help improve water resource and flood and flash flood forecasting capabilities. Initial efforts at the National Weather Service Office of Hydrologic Development (NWS OHD) to derive a priori gridded Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model parameters for the conterminous United States (CONUS) were based on a relatively coarse resolution soils property database, the State Soil Geographic Database (STATSGO) (Soil Survey Staff, 2011) and on the assumption of uniform land use and land cover. In an effort to improve the parameters, subsequent work was performed to fully incorporate spatially variable land cover information into the parameter derivation process. Following that, finer-scale soils data (the county-level Soil Survey Geographic Database (SSURGO) ( Soil Survey Staff, 2011a,b), together with the use of variable land cover data, were used to derive a third set of CONUS, a priori gridded parameters. It is anticipated that the second and third parameter sets, which incorporate more physical data, will be more realistic and consistent. Here, we evaluate whether this is actually the case by intercomparing these three sets of a priori parameters along with their associated hydrologic simulations which were generated by applying the National Weather Service Hydrology Laboratory's Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) ( Koren et al., 2004) in a continuous fashion with an hourly time step. This model adopts a well-tested conceptual water balance model, SAC-SMA, applied on a regular spatial grid, and links to physically

  6. Integrating retention soil filters into urban hydrologic models - Relevant processes and important parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachmann-Machnik, Anna; Meyer, Daniel; Waldhoff, Axel; Fuchs, Stephan; Dittmer, Ulrich

    2018-04-01

    Retention Soil Filters (RSFs), a form of vertical flow constructed wetlands specifically designed for combined sewer overflow (CSO) treatment, have proven to be an effective tool to mitigate negative impacts of CSOs on receiving water bodies. Long-term hydrologic simulations are used to predict the emissions from urban drainage systems during planning of stormwater management measures. So far no universally accepted model for RSF simulation exists. When simulating hydraulics and water quality in RSFs, an appropriate level of detail must be chosen for reasonable balancing between model complexity and model handling, considering the model input's level of uncertainty. The most crucial parameters determining the resultant uncertainties of the integrated sewer system and filter bed model were identified by evaluating a virtual drainage system with a Retention Soil Filter for CSO treatment. To determine reasonable parameter ranges for RSF simulations, data of 207 events from six full-scale RSF plants in Germany were analyzed. Data evaluation shows that even though different plants with varying loading and operation modes were examined, a simple model is sufficient to assess relevant suspended solids (SS), chemical oxygen demand (COD) and NH4 emissions from RSFs. Two conceptual RSF models with different degrees of complexity were assessed. These models were developed based on evaluation of data from full scale RSF plants and column experiments. Incorporated model processes are ammonium adsorption in the filter layer and degradation during subsequent dry weather period, filtration of SS and particulate COD (XCOD) to a constant background concentration and removal of solute COD (SCOD) by a constant removal rate during filter passage as well as sedimentation of SS and XCOD in the filter overflow. XCOD, SS and ammonium loads as well as ammonium concentration peaks are discharged primarily via RSF overflow not passing through the filter bed. Uncertainties of the integrated

  7. Evaluation of mercury and physicochemical parameters in different depths of aquifer water of Thar coalfield, Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Jamshed; Kazi, Tasneem G; Tuzen, Mustafa; Ullah, Naeem

    2017-07-01

    In the current study, mercury (Hg) and physicochemical parameters have been evaluated in aquifer water at different depths of Thar coal field. The water samples were collected from first aquifer (AQ 1 ), second aquifer (AQ 2 ), and third aquifer (AQ 3 ) at three depths, 50-60, 100-120, and 200-250 m, respectively. The results of aquifer water of three depths were interpreted by using different multivariate statistical techniques. Validation of desired method was checked by spiking standard addition method in studied aquifer water samples. The content of Hg in aquifer water samples was measured by cold vapor atomic absorption spectrometer (CV-AAS). These determined values illustrate that the levels of Hg were higher than WHO recommended values for drinking water. All physicochemical parameters were higher than WHO permissible limits for drinking water except pH and SO 4 2- in aquifer water. The positive correlation of Hg with other metals in aquifer water samples of AQ 1 , AQ 2 , and AQ 3 of Thar coalfield except HCO 3 - was observed which might be caused by geochemical minerals. The interpretation of determined values by the cluster technique point out the variations within the water quality parameter as well as sampling location of studied field. The aquifer water AQ 2 was more contaminated with Hg as compared to AQ 1 and AQ 3 ; it may be due to leaching of Hg from coal zone. The concentration of Hg in aquifer water obtained from different depths was found in the following decreasing order: AQ 2  < AQ 1  < AQ 3 .

  8. Modelling Technical and Economic Parameters in Selection of Manufacturing Devices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naqib Daneshjo

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Sustainable science and technology development is also conditioned by continuous development of means of production which have a key role in structure of each production system. Mechanical nature of the means of production is complemented by controlling and electronic devices in context of intelligent industry. A selection of production machines for a technological process or technological project has so far been practically resolved, often only intuitively. With regard to increasing intelligence, the number of variable parameters that have to be considered when choosing a production device is also increasing. It is necessary to use computing techniques and decision making methods according to heuristic methods and more precise methodological procedures during the selection. The authors present an innovative model for optimization of technical and economic parameters in the selection of manufacturing devices for industry 4.0.

  9. Dynamic modelling of water demand, water availability and adaptation strategies for power plants to global change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koch, Hagen; Voegele, Stefan

    2009-01-01

    According to the latest IPCC reports, the frequency of hot and dry periods will increase in many regions of the world in the future. For power plant operators, the increasing possibility of water shortages is an important challenge that they have to face. Shortages of electricity due to water shortages could have an influence on industries as well as on private households. Climate change impact analyses must analyse the climate effects on power plants and possible adaptation strategies for the power generation sector. Power plants have lifetimes of several decades. Their water demand changes with climate parameters in the short- and medium-term. In the long-term, the water demand will change as old units are phased out and new generating units appear in their place. In this paper, we describe the integration of functions for the calculation of the water demand of power plants into a water resources management model. Also included are both short-term reactive and long-term planned adaptation. This integration allows us to simulate the interconnection between the water demand of power plants and water resources management, i.e. water availability. Economic evaluation functions for water shortages are also integrated into the water resources management model. This coupled model enables us to analyse scenarios of socio-economic and climate change, as well as the effects of water management actions. (author)

  10. Determination of Aluminium and Physicochemical Parameters in the Palm Oil Estates Water Supply at Johor, Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. R. Siti Farizwana

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The study was to determine the concentration of aluminium (Al and study the physicochemical parameters (pH, total dissolved solids (TDS, turbidity, and residual chlorine in drinking water supply in selected palm oil estates in Kota Tinggi, Johor. Water samples were collected from the estates with the private and the public water supplies. The sampling points were at the water source (S, the treatment plant outlet (TPO, and at the nearest houses (H1 and the furthest houses (H2 from the TPO. All estates with private water supply failed to meet the NSDWQ for Al with mean concentration of 0.99 ± 1.52 mg/L. However, Al concentrations in all public water supply estates were well within the limit except for one estate. The pH for all samples complied with the NSDWQ except from the private estates for the drinking water supply with an acidic pH (5.50 ± 0.90. The private water supply showed violated turbidity value in the drinking water samples (14.2 ± 24.1 NTU. Insufficient amount of chlorination was observed in the private water supply estates (0.09 ± 0.30 mg/L. Private water supplies with inefficient water treatment served unsatisfactory drinking water quality to the community which may lead to major health problems.

  11. Determination of Aluminium and Physicochemical Parameters in the Palm Oil Estates Water Supply at Johor, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siti Farizwana, M. R.; Mazrura, S.; Zurahanim Fasha, A.; Ahmad Rohi, G.

    2010-01-01

    The study was to determine the concentration of aluminium (Al) and study the physicochemical parameters (pH, total dissolved solids (TDS), turbidity, and residual chlorine) in drinking water supply in selected palm oil estates in Kota Tinggi, Johor. Water samples were collected from the estates with the private and the public water supplies. The sampling points were at the water source (S), the treatment plant outlet (TPO), and at the nearest houses (H1) and the furthest houses (H2) from the TPO. All estates with private water supply failed to meet the NSDWQ for Al with mean concentration of 0.99 ± 1.52 mg/L. However, Al concentrations in all public water supply estates were well within the limit except for one estate. The pH for all samples complied with the NSDWQ except from the private estates for the drinking water supply with an acidic pH (5.50 ± 0.90). The private water supply showed violated turbidity value in the drinking water samples (14.2 ± 24.1 NTU). Insufficient amount of chlorination was observed in the private water supply estates (0.09 ± 0.30 mg/L). Private water supplies with inefficient water treatment served unsatisfactory drinking water quality to the community which may lead to major health problems. PMID:21461348

  12. Determination of aluminium and physicochemical parameters in the palm oil estates water supply at Johor, Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siti Farizwana, M R; Mazrura, S; Zurahanim Fasha, A; Ahmad Rohi, G

    2010-01-01

    The study was to determine the concentration of aluminium (Al) and study the physicochemical parameters (pH, total dissolved solids (TDS), turbidity, and residual chlorine) in drinking water supply in selected palm oil estates in Kota Tinggi, Johor. Water samples were collected from the estates with the private and the public water supplies. The sampling points were at the water source (S), the treatment plant outlet (TPO), and at the nearest houses (H1) and the furthest houses (H2) from the TPO. All estates with private water supply failed to meet the NSDWQ for Al with mean concentration of 0.99 ± 1.52 mg/L. However, Al concentrations in all public water supply estates were well within the limit except for one estate. The pH for all samples complied with the NSDWQ except from the private estates for the drinking water supply with an acidic pH (5.50 ± 0.90). The private water supply showed violated turbidity value in the drinking water samples (14.2 ± 24.1 NTU). Insufficient amount of chlorination was observed in the private water supply estates (0.09 ± 0.30 mg/L). Private water supplies with inefficient water treatment served unsatisfactory drinking water quality to the community which may lead to major health problems.

  13. Integrated analysis of water quality parameters for cost-effective faecal pollution management in river catchments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nnane, Daniel Ekane; Ebdon, James Edward; Taylor, Huw David

    2011-03-01

    In many parts of the world, microbial contamination of surface waters used for drinking, recreation, and shellfishery remains a pervasive risk to human health, especially in Less Economically Developed Countries (LEDC). However, the capacity to provide effective management strategies to break the waterborne route to human infection is often thwarted by our inability to identify the source of microbial contamination. Microbial Source Tracking (MST) has potential to improve water quality management in complex river catchments that are either routinely, or intermittently contaminated by faecal material from one or more sources, by attributing faecal loads to their human or non-human sources, and thereby supporting more rational approaches to microbial risk assessment. The River Ouse catchment in southeast England (U.K.) was used as a model with which to investigate the integration and application of a novel and simple MST approach to monitor microbial water quality over one calendar year, thereby encompassing a range of meteorological conditions. A key objective of the work was to develop simple low-cost protocols that could be easily replicated. Bacteriophages (viruses) capable of infecting a human specific strain of Bacteroides GB-124, and their correlation with presumptive Escherichia coli, were used to distinguish sources of faecal pollution. The results reported here suggest that in this river catchment the principal source of faecal pollution in most instances was non-human in origin. During storm events, presumptive E. coli and presumptive intestinal enterococci levels were 1.1-1.2 logs higher than during dry weather conditions, and levels of the faecal indicator organisms (FIOs) were closely associated with increased turbidity levels (presumptive E. coli and turbidity, r = 0.43). Spatio-temporal variation in microbial water quality parameters was accounted for by three principal components (67.6%). Cluster Analysis, reduced the fourteen monitoring sites to six

  14. Analysis of the Relationship Between Physical Environmental Parameters and Beach Water Quality in a Subtropical Setting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, X.; Wang, J. D.; Elmir, S.; Solo-Gabriele, H. M.; Wright, M. E.; Abdelzaher, A.

    2006-12-01

    Fecal Indicator Bacteria(FIB) are found in high concentrations in sewage water, and thus are used to indicate whether there is fecal material related pathogen present and to determine whether a beach is safe for recreational use. Studies have shown, however, in subtropical regions, FIB concentrations above EPA standards may be present in the absence of known point sources of human or animal waste, thus reducing the efficacy of FIB beach monitoring programs. An interdisciplinary study is being conducted in Miami, Florida , the goal is to understand the sources and behavior of FIB on a beach without point source loads and also to improve beach health hazard warnings in subtropical regions. This study, examines relationship between enterococci (EPA recommended FIB for use in marine water) and physical environmental parameters such as rain, tide and wind. FIB data employed include Florida Department of Health weekly beach monitoring enterococci (ENT) data during a five year period and a two-day experiment with hourly sampling at Hobie Cat Beach on Virginia Key in the Miami metropolitan area. The environmental data consist of wind from a nearby CMAN tower, and local rain and tide. The analysis also includes data from nearby beaches monitored by the Health Department. Results show the correlation coefficient between ENT and tide at Hobie Cat Beach is positive but not significant(r=0.17). Rain events have a significant influence on ENT at Hobie Cat Beach, with a correlation coefficient of up to 0.7 while at other beaches the correlation is less than 0.2. Reasons for this aberration are being investigated. Although this is the only beach allowing dogs there are other factors of possible importance, such as tidal flats frequented by birds and weaker water circulation and exchange at this beach facing a bay rather than the ocean. Higher ENT levels (> 300CFU/100ml water) are more likely (67% of the time) to be associated with periods of onshore winds, which may affect the

  15. Determination of Water Quality Parameters in Sivas - Kurugöl Lake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekrem Mutlu

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Kurugöl Lake; Sivas province Hafik county Kurugöl village located within the boundaries of Sivas province, 54 km, Hafik the town 24 miles away, an area of 8.9 ha altitude of 1362 m, an average depth of 3.4 - 4 m with gypsum plateau on the bottom of the boiling water along with rainfall and snowmelt with the lake is fed naturally. Kurugöl (Hafik - Sivas waters of Lake of the physical and chemical properties during the year changes occurring determining water quality characteristics to reveal the pollution levels are determined, living life in terms of the availability of the detection, water pollution and control regulations by the lake water classification and fishing activities, compliance with were identified. The inland lake in Kurugöl (SKKY according to the classification of water resources in accordance with the parameters measured I-III water quality varies from class.

  16. Modelling anisotropic water transport in polymer composite ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. This work reports anisotropic water transport in a polymer composite consisting of an epoxy matrix reinforced with aligned triangular bars made of vinyl ester. By gravimetric experiments, water diffusion in resin and polymer composites were characterized. Parameters for Fickian diffusion and polymer relaxation ...

  17. Dynamic systems models new methods of parameter and state estimation

    CERN Document Server

    2016-01-01

    This monograph is an exposition of a novel method for solving inverse problems, a method of parameter estimation for time series data collected from simulations of real experiments. These time series might be generated by measuring the dynamics of aircraft in flight, by the function of a hidden Markov model used in bioinformatics or speech recognition or when analyzing the dynamics of asset pricing provided by the nonlinear models of financial mathematics. Dynamic Systems Models demonstrates the use of algorithms based on polynomial approximation which have weaker requirements than already-popular iterative methods. Specifically, they do not require a first approximation of a root vector and they allow non-differentiable elements in the vector functions being approximated. The text covers all the points necessary for the understanding and use of polynomial approximation from the mathematical fundamentals, through algorithm development to the application of the method in, for instance, aeroplane flight dynamic...

  18. Parameter Estimation for a Class of Lifetime Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinyang Ji

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Our purpose in this paper is to present a better method of parametric estimation for a bivariate nonlinear regression model, which takes the performance indicator of rubber aging as the dependent variable and time and temperature as the independent variables. We point out that the commonly used two-step method (TSM, which splits the model and estimate parameters separately, has limitation. Instead, we apply the Marquardt’s method (MM to implement parametric estimation directly for the model and compare these two methods of parametric estimation by random simulation. Our results show that MM has better effect of data fitting, more reasonable parametric estimates, and smaller prediction error compared with TSM.

  19. The parameter space of Cubic Galileon models for cosmic acceleration

    CERN Document Server

    Bellini, Emilio

    2013-01-01

    We use recent measurements of the expansion history of the universe to place constraints on the parameter space of cubic Galileon models. This gives strong constraints on the Lagrangian of these models. Most dynamical terms in the Galileon Lagrangian are constraint to be small and the acceleration is effectively provided by a constant term in the scalar potential, thus reducing, effectively, to a LCDM model for current acceleration. The effective equation of state is indistinguishable from that of a cosmological constant w = -1 and the data constraint it to have no temporal variations of more than at the few % level. The energy density of the Galileon can contribute only to about 10% of the acceleration energy density, being the other 90% a cosmological constant term. This demonstrates how useful direct measurements of the expansion history of the universe are at constraining the dynamical nature of dark energy.

  20. A new method for determination of parameters in sewer pollutant transformation process model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, F; Leung, H W D; Li, S Y; Lin, G S; Chen, G H

    2007-11-01

    Understanding pollutant transformation in sewers is important in controlling odor emission from pressure mains as well as in assessing organic pollutant removal capacity of gravity sewers. Sewer process models have thus been developed to quantify the pollutant transformation processes under various sewer conditions. The quantification largely depends on model parameter values, in particular the kinetic and stoichiometric parameters related to microbial activities. The current approaches not only involve a large amount of experimental work but also may induce significant errors when microbial reactions cannot be differentiated effectively during the experiments. Therefore, this study is aimed at developing a new method that can reduce experimental work significantly. The proposed method utilizes a genetic algorithm (GA) to enable the determination with a single set of batch experiments. To study the feasibility of the proposed method, a set of 72-hr batch experiments was first conducted for determining the parameters of a sewer model developed in this study, which adopted a full version of the International Water Association (IWA) Activated Sludge Model No. 3 (ASM3) to describe the microbial activities in sewers. The results were then verified with two different sets of the batch experiments. Furthermore, dynamic variation data of dissolved oxygen level were collected at the outlet of a 1.5-km gravity sewer to validate the determined parameters. All the results showed that the proposed parameter determination method is effective.

  1. Energy deposition model for I-125 photon radiation in water

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fuss, M.C.; Garcia, G. [Instituto de Fisica Fundamental, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC), Madrid (Spain); Munoz, A.; Oller, J.C. [Centro de Investigaciones Energeticas, Medioambientales y Tecnologicas (CIEMAT), Madrid (Spain); Blanco, F. [Departamento de Fisica Atomica, Molecular y Nuclear, Universidad Complutense de Madrid (Spain); Limao-Vieira, P. [Laboratorio de Colisoes Atomicas e Moleculares, Departamento de Fisica, CEFITEC, FCT-Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Caparica (Portugal); Williart, A.; Garcia, G. [Departamento de Fisica de los Materiales, Universidad Nacional de Educacion a Distancia, Madrid (Spain); Huerga, C.; Tellez, M. [Hospital Universitario La Paz, Madrid (Spain)

    2010-10-15

    In this study, an electron-tracking Monte Carlo algorithm developed by us is combined with established photon transport models in order to simulate all primary and secondary particle interactions in water for incident photon radiation. As input parameters for secondary electron interactions, electron scattering cross sections by water molecules and experimental energy loss spectra are used. With this simulation, the resulting energy deposition can be modelled at the molecular level, yielding detailed information about localization and type of single collision events. The experimental emission spectrum of I-125 seeds, as used for radiotherapy of different tumours, was used for studying the energy deposition in water when irradiating with this radionuclide. (authors)

  2. Energy deposition model for I-125 photon radiation in water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuss, M.C.; Garcia, G.; Munoz, A.; Oller, J.C.; Blanco, F.; Limao-Vieira, P.; Williart, A.; Garcia, G.; Huerga, C.; Tellez, M.

    2010-01-01

    In this study, an electron-tracking Monte Carlo algorithm developed by us is combined with established photon transport models in order to simulate all primary and secondary particle interactions in water for incident photon radiation. As input parameters for secondary electron interactions, electron scattering cross sections by water molecules and experimental energy loss spectra are used. With this simulation, the resulting energy deposition can be modelled at the molecular level, yielding detailed information about localization and type of single collision events. The experimental emission spectrum of I-125 seeds, as used for radiotherapy of different tumours, was used for studying the energy deposition in water when irradiating with this radionuclide. (authors)

  3. Assessment of parameter regionalization methods for modeling flash floods in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ragettli, Silvan; Zhou, Jian; Wang, Haijing

    2017-04-01

    Rainstorm flash floods are a common and serious phenomenon during the summer months in many hilly and mountainous regions of China. For this study, we develop a modeling strategy for simulating flood events in small river basins of four Chinese provinces (Shanxi, Henan, Beijing, Fujian). The presented research is part of preliminary investigations for the development of a national operational model for predicting and forecasting hydrological extremes in basins of size 10 - 2000 km2, whereas most of these basins are ungauged or poorly gauged. The project is supported by the China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research within the framework of the national initiative for flood prediction and early warning system for mountainous regions in China (research project SHZH-IWHR-73). We use the USGS Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) as implemented in the Java modeling framework Object Modeling System (OMS). PRMS can operate at both daily and storm timescales, switching between the two using a precipitation threshold. This functionality allows the model to perform continuous simulations over several years and to switch to the storm mode to simulate storm response in greater detail. The model was set up for fifteen watersheds for which hourly precipitation and runoff data were available. First, automatic calibration based on the Shuffled Complex Evolution method was applied to different hydrological response unit (HRU) configurations. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) was used as assessment criteria, whereas only runoff data from storm events were considered. HRU configurations reflect the drainage-basin characteristics and depend on assumptions regarding drainage density and minimum HRU size. We then assessed the sensitivity of optimal parameters to different HRU configurations. Finally, the transferability to other watersheds of optimal model parameters that were not sensitive to HRU configurations was evaluated. Model calibration for the 15

  4. Analysis of Model Parameters for a Polymer Filtration Simulator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Brackett-Rozinsky

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We examine a simulation model for polymer extrusion filters and determine its sensitivity to filter parameters. The simulator is a three-dimensional, time-dependent discretization of a coupled system of nonlinear partial differential equations used to model fluid flow and debris transport, along with statistical relationships that define debris distributions and retention probabilities. The flow of polymer fluid, and suspended debris particles, is tracked to determine how well a filter performs and how long it operates before clogging. A filter may have multiple layers, characterized by thickness, porosity, and average pore diameter. In this work, the thickness of each layer is fixed, while the porosities and pore diameters vary for a two-layer and three-layer study. The effects of porosity and average pore diameter on the measures of filter quality are calculated. For the three layer model, these effects are tested for statistical significance using analysis of variance. Furthermore, the effects of each pair of interacting parameters are considered. This allows the detection of complexity, where in changing two aspects of a filter together may generate results substantially different from what occurs when those same aspects change separately. The principal findings indicate that the first layer of a filter is the most important.

  5. Optimization of Experimental Model Parameter Identification for Energy Storage Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosario Morello

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The smart grid approach is envisioned to take advantage of all available modern technologies in transforming the current power system to provide benefits to all stakeholders in the fields of efficient energy utilisation and of wide integration of renewable sources. Energy storage systems could help to solve some issues that stem from renewable energy usage in terms of stabilizing the intermittent energy production, power quality and power peak mitigation. With the integration of energy storage systems into the smart grids, their accurate modeling becomes a necessity, in order to gain robust real-time control on the network, in terms of stability and energy supply forecasting. In this framework, this paper proposes a procedure to identify the values of the battery model parameters in order to best fit experimental data and integrate it, along with models of energy sources and electrical loads, in a complete framework which represents a real time smart grid management system. The proposed method is based on a hybrid optimisation technique, which makes combined use of a stochastic and a deterministic algorithm, with low computational burden and can therefore be repeated over time in order to account for parameter variations due to the battery’s age and usage.

  6. Applying Atmospheric Measurements to Constrain Parameters of Terrestrial Source Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyer, E. J.; Kasischke, E. S.; Allen, D. J.

    2004-12-01

    Quantitative inversions of atmospheric measurements have been widely applied to constrain atmospheric budgets of a range of trace gases. Experiments of this type have revealed persistent discrepancies between 'bottom-up' and 'top-down' estimates of source magnitudes. The most common atmospheric inversion uses the absolute magnitude as the sole parameter for each source, and returns the optimal value of that parameter. In order for atmospheric measurements to be useful for improving 'bottom-up' models of terrestrial sources, information about other properties of the sources must be extracted. As the density and quality of atmospheric trace gas measurements improve, examination of higher-order properties of trace gas sources should become possible. Our model of boreal forest fire emissions is parameterized to permit flexible examination of the key uncertainties in this source. Using output from this model together with the UM CTM, we examined the sensitivity of CO concentration measurements made by the MOPITT instrument to various uncertainties in the boreal source: geographic distribution of burned area, fire type (crown fires vs. surface fires), and fuel consumption in above-ground and ground-layer fuels. Our results indicate that carefully designed inversion experiments have the potential to help constrain not only the absolute magnitudes of terrestrial sources, but also the key uncertainties associated with 'bottom-up' estimates of those sources.

  7. Bayesian parameter estimation for stochastic models of biological cell migration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieterich, Peter; Preuss, Roland

    2013-08-01

    Cell migration plays an essential role under many physiological and patho-physiological conditions. It is of major importance during embryonic development and wound healing. In contrast, it also generates negative effects during inflammation processes, the transmigration of tumors or the formation of metastases. Thus, a reliable quantification and characterization of cell paths could give insight into the dynamics of these processes. Typically stochastic models are applied where parameters are extracted by fitting models to the so-called mean square displacement of the observed cell group. We show that this approach has several disadvantages and problems. Therefore, we propose a simple procedure directly relying on the positions of the cell's trajectory and the covariance matrix of the positions. It is shown that the covariance is identical with the spatial aging correlation function for the supposed linear Gaussian models of Brownian motion with drift and fractional Brownian motion. The technique is applied and illustrated with simulated data showing a reliable parameter estimation from single cell paths.

  8. A review of hydrological/water-quality models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liangliang GAO,Daoliang LI

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Water quality models are important in predicting the changes in surface water quality for environmental management. A range of water quality models are wildly used, but every model has its advantages and limitations for specific situations. The aim of this review is to provide a guide to researcher for selecting a suitable water quality model. Eight well known water quality models were selected for this review: SWAT, WASP, QUALs, MIKE 11, HSPF, CE-QUAL-W2, ELCOM-CAEDYM and EFDC. Each model is described according to its intended use, development, simulation elements, basic principles and applicability (e.g., for rivers, lakes, and reservoirs and estuaries. Currently, the most important trends for future model development are: (1 combination models─individual models cannot completely solve the complex situations so combined models are needed to obtain the most appropriate results, (2 application of artificial intelligence and mechanistic models combined with non-mechanistic models will provide more accurate results because of the realistic parameters derived from non-mechanistic models, and (3 integration with remote sensing, geographical information and global position systems (3S ─3S can solve problems requiring large amounts of data.

  9. Parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification in a biogeochemical model using optimal experimental design methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reimer, Joscha; Piwonski, Jaroslaw; Slawig, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    The statistical significance of any model-data comparison strongly depends on the quality of the used data and the criterion used to measure the model-to-data misfit. The statistical properties (such as mean values, variances and covariances) of the data should be taken into account by choosing a criterion as, e.g., ordinary, weighted or generalized least squares. Moreover, the criterion can be restricted onto regions or model quantities which are of special interest. This choice influences the quality of the model output (also for not measured quantities) and the results of a parameter estimation or optimization process. We have estimated the parameters of a three-dimensional and time-dependent marine biogeochemical model describing the phosphorus cycle in the ocean. For this purpose, we have developed a statistical model for measurements of phosphate and dissolved organic phosphorus. This statistical model includes variances and correlations varying with time and location of the measurements. We compared the obtained estimations of model output and parameters for different criteria. Another question is if (and which) further measurements would increase the model's quality at all. Using experimental design criteria, the information content of measurements can be quantified. This may refer to the uncertainty in unknown model parameters as well as the uncertainty regarding which model is closer to reality. By (another) optimization, optimal measurement properties such as locations, time instants and quantities to be measured can be identified. We have optimized such properties for additional measurement for the parameter estimation of the marine biogeochemical model. For this purpose, we have quantified the uncertainty in the optimal model parameters and the model output itself regarding the uncertainty in the measurement data using the (Fisher) information matrix. Furthermore, we have calculated the uncertainty reduction by additional measurements depending on time

  10. Application of a free parameter model to plastic scintillation samples

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tarancon Sanz, Alex, E-mail: alex.tarancon@ub.edu [Departament de Quimica Analitica, Universitat de Barcelona, Diagonal 647, E-08028 Barcelona (Spain); Kossert, Karsten, E-mail: Karsten.Kossert@ptb.de [Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt (PTB), Bundesallee 100, 38116 Braunschweig (Germany)

    2011-08-21

    In liquid scintillation (LS) counting, the CIEMAT/NIST efficiency tracing method and the triple-to-double coincidence ratio (TDCR) method have proved their worth for reliable activity measurements of a number of radionuclides. In this paper, an extended approach to apply a free-parameter model to samples containing a mixture of solid plastic scintillation microspheres and radioactive aqueous solutions is presented. Several beta-emitting radionuclides were measured in a TDCR system at PTB. For the application of the free parameter model, the energy loss in the aqueous phase must be taken into account, since this portion of the particle energy does not contribute to the creation of scintillation light. The energy deposit in the aqueous phase is determined by means of Monte Carlo calculations applying the PENELOPE software package. To this end, great efforts were made to model the geometry of the samples. Finally, a new geometry parameter was defined, which was determined by means of a tracer radionuclide with known activity. This makes the analysis of experimental TDCR data of other radionuclides possible. The deviations between the determined activity concentrations and reference values were found to be lower than 3%. The outcome of this research work is also important for a better understanding of liquid scintillation counting. In particular the influence of (inverse) micelles, i.e. the aqueous spaces embedded in the organic scintillation cocktail, can be investigated. The new approach makes clear that it is important to take the energy loss in the aqueous phase into account. In particular for radionuclides emitting low-energy electrons (e.g. M-Auger electrons from {sup 125}I), this effect can be very important.

  11. Modelled basic parameters for semi-industrial irradiation plant design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mangussi, J.

    2009-01-01

    The basic parameters of an irradiation plant design are the total activity, the product uniformity ratio and the efficiency process. The target density, the minimum dose required and the throughput depends on the use to which the irradiator will be put at. In this work, a model for calculating the specific dose rate at several depths in an infinite homogeneous medium produced by a slab source irradiator is presented. The product minimum dose rate for a set of target thickness is obtained. The design method steps are detailed and an illustrative example is presented. (author)

  12. Lumped-parameter fuel rod model for rapid thermal transients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perkins, K.R.; Ramshaw, J.D.

    1975-07-01

    The thermal behavior of fuel rods during simulated accident conditions is extremely sensitive to the heat transfer coefficient which is, in turn, very sensitive to the cladding surface temperature and the fluid conditions. The development of a semianalytical, lumped-parameter fuel rod model which is intended to provide accurate calculations, in a minimum amount of computer time, of the thermal response of fuel rods during a simulated loss-of-coolant accident is described. The results show good agreement with calculations from a comprehensive fuel-rod code (FRAP-T) currently in use at Aerojet Nuclear Company

  13. Taming Many-Parameter BSM Models with Bayesian Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuchera, M. P.; Karbo, A.; Prosper, H. B.; Sanchez, A.; Taylor, J. Z.

    2017-09-01

    The search for physics Beyond the Standard Model (BSM) is a major focus of large-scale high energy physics experiments. One method is to look for specific deviations from the Standard Model that are predicted by BSM models. In cases where the model has a large number of free parameters, standard search methods become intractable due to computation time. This talk presents results using Bayesian Neural Networks, a supervised machine learning method, to enable the study of higher-dimensional models. The popular phenomenological Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model was studied as an example of the feasibility and usefulness of this method. Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) are used to expedite the calculations. Cross-section predictions for 13 TeV proton collisions will be presented. My participation in the Conference Experience for Undergraduates (CEU) in 2004-2006 exposed me to the national and global significance of cutting-edge research. At the 2005 CEU, I presented work from the previous summer's SULI internship at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, where I learned to program while working on the Majorana Project. That work inspired me to follow a similar research path, which led me to my current work on computational methods applied to BSM physics.

  14. Bayesian analysis of inflation: Parameter estimation for single field models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mortonson, Michael J.; Peiris, Hiranya V.; Easther, Richard

    2011-01-01

    Future astrophysical data sets promise to strengthen constraints on models of inflation, and extracting these constraints requires methods and tools commensurate with the quality of the data. In this paper we describe ModeCode, a new, publicly available code that computes the primordial scalar and tensor power spectra for single-field inflationary models. ModeCode solves the inflationary mode equations numerically, avoiding the slow roll approximation. It is interfaced with CAMB and CosmoMC to compute cosmic microwave background angular power spectra and perform likelihood analysis and parameter estimation. ModeCode is easily extendable to additional models of inflation, and future updates will include Bayesian model comparison. Errors from ModeCode contribute negligibly to the error budget for analyses of data from Planck or other next generation experiments. We constrain representative single-field models (φ n with n=2/3, 1, 2, and 4, natural inflation, and 'hilltop' inflation) using current data, and provide forecasts for Planck. From current data, we obtain weak but nontrivial limits on the post-inflationary physics, which is a significant source of uncertainty in the predictions of inflationary models, while we find that Planck will dramatically improve these constraints. In particular, Planck will link the inflationary dynamics with the post-inflationary growth of the horizon, and thus begin to probe the ''primordial dark ages'' between TeV and grand unified theory scale energies.

  15. Empirically modelled Pc3 activity based on solar wind parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Heilig

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available It is known that under certain solar wind (SW/interplanetary magnetic field (IMF conditions (e.g. high SW speed, low cone angle the occurrence of ground-level Pc3–4 pulsations is more likely. In this paper we demonstrate that in the event of anomalously low SW particle density, Pc3 activity is extremely low regardless of otherwise favourable SW speed and cone angle. We re-investigate the SW control of Pc3 pulsation activity through a statistical analysis and two empirical models with emphasis on the influence of SW density on Pc3 activity. We utilise SW and IMF measurements from the OMNI project and ground-based magnetometer measurements from the MM100 array to relate SW and IMF measurements to the occurrence of Pc3 activity. Multiple linear regression and artificial neural network models are used in iterative processes in order to identify sets of SW-based input parameters, which optimally reproduce a set of Pc3 activity data. The inclusion of SW density in the parameter set significantly improves the models. Not only the density itself, but other density related parameters, such as the dynamic pressure of the SW, or the standoff distance of the magnetopause work equally well in the model. The disappearance of Pc3s during low-density events can have at least four reasons according to the existing upstream wave theory: 1. Pausing the ion-cyclotron resonance that generates the upstream ultra low frequency waves in the absence of protons, 2. Weakening of the bow shock that implies less efficient reflection, 3. The SW becomes sub-Alfvénic and hence it is not able to sweep back the waves propagating upstream with the Alfvén-speed, and 4. The increase of the standoff distance of the magnetopause (and of the bow shock. Although the models cannot account for the lack of Pc3s during intervals when the SW density is extremely low, the resulting sets of optimal model inputs support the generation of mid latitude Pc3 activity predominantly through

  16. Tagging Water Sources in Atmospheric Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosilovich, M.

    2003-01-01

    Tagging of water sources in atmospheric models allows for quantitative diagnostics of how water is transported from its source region to its sink region. In this presentation, we review how this methodology is applied to global atmospheric models. We will present several applications of the methodology. In one example, the regional sources of water for the North American Monsoon system are evaluated by tagging the surface evaporation. In another example, the tagged water is used to quantify the global water cycling rate and residence time. We will also discuss the need for more research and the importance of these diagnostics in water cycle studies.

  17. Model for radionuclide transport in running waters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jonsson, Karin; Elert, Mark [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2005-11-15

    , however, the approximation of equilibrium chemistry is assumed to be sufficient for order of magnitude predictions when a constant inflow of radionuclides is considered. A first sensitivity analysis of the model is performed in which different model parameters have been varied. At the time for the model development, almost no detailed site-specific information about e.g. channel geometry or sediment characteristics were available. Simulations were therefore performed for a hypothetical case, where the ranges of possible parameter values was based on literature information, generalizations from other stream systems and some site-specific information such as large-scale information of the morphology at the present sites. For order of magnitude predictions of the concentration or amount of radionuclides in the different parts of the stream ecosystem, a yearly mean value of the water flow was assumed to be sufficient. Therefore, the further sensitivity analyses were performed for constant flow conditions. The sensitivity analyses indicated that the main retention along the stream is due to uptake within the sediment. Initially, the uptake will cause a retardation of the solute transport. The sediment capacity is however limited and after saturation, the outflow of radionuclides in the longitudinal direction will be completely determined by the inflow to the system. The time for reaching this equilibrium and the equilibrium concentration in the sediment varies however with different conditions and radionuclides, e.g. due to sorption characteristics, sedimentation velocity and advective velocity within the sediment. The degree of variation caused by different factors is, however, different. In the simulations performed in this study, the time for reaching equilibrium ranges from less than a year to a couple of hundred years. For predictions of the dose to humans, the accumulated amount in the sediment should also be considered and not only the concentration in the stream water

  18. Using genetic algorithms to calibrate a water quality model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shuming; Butler, David; Brazier, Richard; Heathwaite, Louise; Khu, Soon-Thiam

    2007-03-15

    With the increasing concern over the impact of diffuse pollution on water bodies, many diffuse pollution models have been developed in the last two decades. A common obstacle in using such models is how to determine the values of the model parameters. This is especially true when a model has a large number of parameters, which makes a full range of calibration expensive in terms of computing time. Compared with conventional optimisation approaches, soft computing techniques often have a faster convergence speed and are more efficient for global optimum searches. This paper presents an attempt to calibrate a diffuse pollution model using a genetic algorithm (GA). Designed to simulate the export of phosphorus from diffuse sources (agricultural land) and point sources (human), the Phosphorus Indicators Tool (PIT) version 1.1, on which this paper is based, consisted of 78 parameters. Previous studies have indicated the difficulty of full range model calibration due to the number of parameters involved. In this paper, a GA was employed to carry out the model calibration in which all parameters were involved. A sensitivity analysis was also performed to investigate the impact of operators in the GA on its effectiveness in optimum searching. The calibration yielded satisfactory results and required reasonable computing time. The application of the PIT model to the Windrush catchment with optimum parameter values was demonstrated. The annual P loss was predicted as 4.4 kg P/ha/yr, which showed a good fitness to the observed value.

  19. Water Quality Modeling in the Dead End Sections of Drinking ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dead-end sections of drinking water distribution networks are known to be problematic zones in terms of water quality degradation. Extended residence time due to water stagnation leads to rapid reduction of disinfectant residuals allowing the regrowth of microbial pathogens. Water quality models developed so far apply spatial aggregation and temporal averaging techniques for hydraulic parameters by assigning hourly averaged water demands to the main nodes of the network. Although this practice has generally resulted in minimal loss of accuracy for the predicted disinfectant concentrations in main water transmission lines, this is not the case for the peripheries of a distribution network. This study proposes a new approach for simulating disinfectant residuals in dead end pipes while accounting for both spatial and temporal variability in hydraulic and transport parameters. A stochastic demand generator was developed to represent residential water pulses based on a non-homogenous Poisson process. Dispersive solute transport was considered using highly dynamic dispersion rates. A genetic algorithm was used to calibrate the axial hydraulic profile of the dead-end pipe based on the different demand shares of the withdrawal nodes. A parametric sensitivity analysis was done to assess the model performance under variation of different simulation parameters. A group of Monte-Carlo ensembles was carried out to investigate the influence of spatial and temporal variations

  20. Modelling anisotropic water transport in polymer composite ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    and polymer composites were characterized. Parameters for Fickian diffusion and polymer relaxation models were determined by least-square curve fitting to the experimental data. Diffusion parameters of epoxy and vinyl ester resin were used as input during development of finite element (FE) model of polymer composite.

  1. Application of Time-series Model to Predict Groundwater Quality Parameters for Agriculture: (Plain Mehran Case Study)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehrdad Mirsanjari, Mir; Mohammadyari, Fatemeh

    2018-03-01

    Underground water is regarded as considerable water source which is mainly available in arid and semi arid with deficient surface water source. Forecasting of hydrological variables are suitable tools in water resources management. On the other hand, time series concepts is considered efficient means in forecasting process of water management. In this study the data including qualitative parameters (electrical conductivity and sodium adsorption ratio) of 17 underground water wells in Mehran Plain has been used to model the trend of parameters change over time. Using determined model, the qualitative parameters of groundwater is predicted for the next seven years. Data from 2003 to 2016 has been collected and were fitted by AR, MA, ARMA, ARIMA and SARIMA models. Afterward, the best model is determined using information criterion or Akaike (AIC) and correlation coefficient. After modeling parameters, the map of agricultural land use in 2016 and 2023 were generated and the changes between these years were studied. Based on the results, the average of predicted SAR (Sodium Adsorption Rate) in all wells in the year 2023 will increase compared to 2016. EC (Electrical Conductivity) average in the ninth and fifteenth holes and decreases in other wells will be increased. The results indicate that the quality of groundwater for Agriculture Plain Mehran will decline in seven years.

  2. Convergence of surface diffusion parameters with model crystal size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Jennifer M.; Voter, Arthur F.

    1994-07-01

    A study of the variation in the calculated quantities for adatom diffusion with respect to the size of the model crystal is presented. The reported quantities include surface diffusion barrier heights, pre-exponential factors, and dynamical correction factors. Embedded atom method (EAM) potentials were used throughout this effort. Both the layer size and the depth of the crystal were found to influence the values of the Arrhenius factors significantly. In particular, exchange type mechanisms required a significantly larger model than standard hopping mechanisms to determine adatom diffusion barriers of equivalent accuracy. The dynamical events that govern the corrections to transition state theory (TST) did not appear to be as sensitive to crystal depth. Suitable criteria for the convergence of the diffusion parameters with regard to the rate properties are illustrated.

  3. UNIQUAC activity coefficient model for the systems of 1-propanol + water and 2-propanol + water

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Numuang, C.

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Predictions of vapor liquid equilibria and azeotrope conditions of binary systems of 1-propanol+ water and 2-propanol+water at 30, 60, and 100 kPa were conducted in this work. UNIQUAC activity coefficient and ideal gas models represented behavior of the systems in liquid phase and vapor phase respectively. Experimental data collected from the literature (Gobaldon et al., 1996 and Marzal et al., 1996 were used to calculate energy interaction parameters of the UNIQUAC activity coefficient model by non-linear regression method. The obtained parameters were not dependent on temperature and mole fraction; however, those parameters were dependent on pressure of the system. The mean absolute error of vapor mole fraction of alcohol and water were in the range 3.86-4.65% and 2.33-3.28% respectively for the binary system of 1-propanol +water. The mean absolute error of vapor mole fraction of alcohol and water were in the range 1.93-2.06% and 1.47-1.94% respectively for the binary system of 2-propanol+water. The thermodynamics consistency test proved that the UNIQUAC activity coefficient model was satisfied very well with Gibbs- Duhem equation.

  4. Constraining model parameters on remotely sensed evaporation: justification for distribution in ungauged basins?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. C. Winsemius

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, land surface related parameter distributions of a conceptual semi-distributed hydrological model are constrained by employing time series of satellite-based evaporation estimates during the dry season as explanatory information. The approach has been applied to the ungauged Luangwa river basin (150 000 (km2 in Zambia. The information contained in these evaporation estimates imposes compliance of the model with the largest outgoing water balance term, evaporation, and a spatially and temporally realistic depletion of soil moisture within the dry season. The model results in turn provide a better understanding of the information density of remotely sensed evaporation. Model parameters to which evaporation is sensitive, have been spatially distributed on the basis of dominant land cover characteristics. Consequently, their values were conditioned by means of Monte-Carlo sampling and evaluation on satellite evaporation estimates. The results show that behavioural parameter sets for model units with similar land cover are indeed clustered. The clustering reveals hydrologically meaningful signatures in the parameter response surface: wetland-dominated areas (also called dambos show optimal parameter ranges that reflect vegetation with a relatively small unsaturated zone (due to the shallow rooting depth of the vegetation which is easily moisture stressed. The forested areas and highlands show parameter ranges that indicate a much deeper root zone which is more drought resistent. Clustering was consequently used to formulate fuzzy membership functions that can be used to constrain parameter realizations in further calibration. Unrealistic parameter ranges, found for instance in the high unsaturated soil zone values in the highlands may indicate either overestimation of satellite-based evaporation or model structural deficiencies. We believe that in these areas, groundwater uptake into the root zone and lateral movement of

  5. Hydrologic parameters and land use reflection on water quality at Mun river, Thailand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akter, A.; Babel, M.S.

    2005-01-01

    The 'River Basin' is the land area surrounding one river from its headwaters to its mouth whereas the area drained by a river and its tributaries. So that the land use changes and excessive application of nutrients (Nitrogen and Phosphorus) in predominant agricultural river basins may have a great influence on water quality. Here the study area Mun River Basin is approximately of 69,701 km/sup 2/ and in 1994, out of the total basin area 'about 80 percent was covered by agricultural purposes. Also one of the driest parts of Thailand as well as one of the industrialized provinces in Thailand, Nakhon Ratchasima is situated at the upstream of the river. Accordingly the downstream part Ubon Ratchathani seems totally agricultural based area. To get the water quality changing trends due to land use, there are around forty water quality parameters has considered for the last ten years along with the basins hydrological parameters. For this study based on the fifteen years rainfall data, the whole year divided into two seasons namely wet season (May to October) and dry season (November to April). The result shows: (1) most of the physicochemical parameters are high in wet season; (2) heavy metals moreover appear higher at wet season and (3) although the presences of pesticides are very nominal, the higher values are detected at wet season. The conclusion draws for the water quality by having wet season water sampling and then the testing of water samples for selected seven parameters whereas the water samples are collected at a duration of one-week to three-week from April to October 2004. And this short duration analysis shows that the mean value of the nutrient shows not only higher at wet season (May to October) than April's data also exceed the existing Thailand's surface water quality standard. (author)

  6. Diabatic models with transferrable parameters for generalized chemical reactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reimers, Jeffrey R.; McKemmish, Laura K.; McKenzie, Ross H.; Hush, Noel S.

    2017-05-01

    Diabatic models applied to adiabatic electron-transfer theory yield many equations involving just a few parameters that connect ground-state geometries and vibration frequencies to excited-state transition energies and vibration frequencies to the rate constants for electron-transfer reactions, utilizing properties of the conical-intersection seam linking the ground and excited states through the Pseudo Jahn-Teller effect. We review how such simplicity in basic understanding can also be obtained for general chemical reactions. The key feature that must be recognized is that electron-transfer (or hole transfer) processes typically involve one electron (hole) moving between two orbitals, whereas general reactions typically involve two electrons or even four electrons for processes in aromatic molecules. Each additional moving electron leads to new high-energy but interrelated conical-intersection seams that distort the shape of the critical lowest-energy seam. Recognizing this feature shows how conical-intersection descriptors can be transferred between systems, and how general chemical reactions can be compared using the same set of simple parameters. Mathematical relationships are presented depicting how different conical-intersection seams relate to each other, showing that complex problems can be reduced into an effective interaction between the ground-state and a critical excited state to provide the first semi-quantitative implementation of Shaik’s “twin state” concept. Applications are made (i) demonstrating why the chemistry of the first-row elements is qualitatively so different to that of the second and later rows, (ii) deducing the bond-length alternation in hypothetical cyclohexatriene from the observed UV spectroscopy of benzene, (iii) demonstrating that commonly used procedures for modelling surface hopping based on inclusion of only the first-derivative correction to the Born-Oppenheimer approximation are valid in no region of the chemical

  7. Piecewise Model and Parameter Obtainment of Governor Actuator in Turbine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Zhao

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The governor actuators in some heat-engine plants have nonlinear valves. This nonlinearity of valves may lead to the inaccuracy of the opening and closing time constants calculated based on the whole segment fully open and fully close experimental test curves of the valve. An improved mathematical model of the turbine governor actuator is proposed to reflect the nonlinearity of the valve, in which the main and auxiliary piecewise opening and closing time constants instead of the fixed oil motive opening and closing time constants are adopted to describe the characteristics of the actuator. The main opening and closing time constants are obtained from the linear segments of the whole fully open and close curves. The parameters of proportional integral derivative (PID controller are identified based on the small disturbance experimental tests of the valve. Then the auxiliary opening and closing time constants and the piecewise opening and closing valve points are determined by the fully open/close experimental tests. Several testing functions are selected to compare genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization algorithm (GA-PSO with other basic intelligence algorithms. The effectiveness of the piecewise linear model and its parameters are validated by practical power plant case studies.

  8. Standard model parameters and the search for new physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marciano, W.J.

    1988-04-01

    In these lectures, my aim is to present an up-to-date status report on the standard model and some key tests of electroweak unification. Within that context, I also discuss how and where hints of new physics may emerge. To accomplish those goals, I have organized my presentation as follows: I discuss the standard model parameters with particular emphasis on the gauge coupling constants and vector boson masses. Examples of new physics appendages are also briefly commented on. In addition, because these lectures are intended for students and thus somewhat pedagogical, I have included an appendix on dimensional regularization and a simple computational example that employs that technique. Next, I focus on weak charged current phenomenology. Precision tests of the standard model are described and up-to-date values for the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa (CKM) mixing matrix parameters are presented. Constraints implied by those tests for a 4th generation, supersymmetry, extra Z/prime/ bosons, and compositeness are also discussed. I discuss weak neutral current phenomenology and the extraction of sin/sup 2/ /theta//sub W/ from experiment. The results presented there are based on a recently completed global analysis of all existing data. I have chosen to concentrate that discussion on radiative corrections, the effect of a heavy top quark mass, and implications for grand unified theories (GUTS). The potential for further experimental progress is also commented on. I depart from the narrowest version of the standard model and discuss effects of neutrino masses and mixings. I have chosen to concentrate on oscillations, the Mikheyev-Smirnov- Wolfenstein (MSW) effect, and electromagnetic properties of neutrinos. On the latter topic, I will describe some recent work on resonant spin-flavor precession. Finally, I conclude with a prospectus on hopes for the future. 76 refs

  9. Applying the WEAP Model to Water Resource

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gao, Jingjing; Christensen, Per; Li, Wei

    Water resources assessment is a tool to provide decision makers with an appropriate basis to make informed judgments regarding the objectives and targets to be addressed during the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) process. The study shows how water resources assessment can be applied in SEA...... in assessing the effects on water resources using a case study on a Coal Industry Development Plan in an arid region in North Western China. In the case the WEAP model (Water Evaluation And Planning System) were used to simulate various scenarios using a diversity of technological instruments like irrigation...... efficiency, treatment and reuse of water. The WEAP model was applied to the Ordos catchment where it was used for the first time in China. The changes in water resource utilization in Ordos basin were assessed with the model. It was found that the WEAP model is a useful tool for water resource assessment...

  10. Modeling soil water content for vegetation modeling improvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cianfrani, Carmen; Buri, Aline; Zingg, Barbara; Vittoz, Pascal; Verrecchia, Eric; Guisan, Antoine

    2016-04-01

    Soil water content (SWC) is known to be important for plants as it affects the physiological processes regulating plant growth. Therefore, SWC controls plant distribution over the Earth surface, ranging from deserts and grassland to rain forests. Unfortunately, only a few data on SWC are available as its measurement is very time consuming and costly and needs specific laboratory tools. The scarcity of SWC measurements in geographic space makes it difficult to model and spatially project SWC over larger areas. In particular, it prevents its inclusion in plant species distribution model (SDMs) as predictor. The aims of this study were, first, to test a new methodology allowing problems of the scarcity of SWC measurements to be overpassed and second, to model and spatially project SWC in order to improve plant SDMs with the inclusion of SWC parameter. The study was developed in four steps. First, SWC was modeled by measuring it at 10 different pressures (expressed in pF and ranging from pF=0 to pF=4.2). The different pF represent different degrees of soil water availability for plants. An ensemble of bivariate models was built to overpass the problem of having only a few SWC measurements (n = 24) but several predictors to include in the model. Soil texture (clay, silt, sand), organic matter (OM), topographic variables (elevation, aspect, convexity), climatic variables (precipitation) and hydrological variables (river distance, NDWI) were used as predictors. Weighted ensemble models were built using only bivariate models with adjusted-R2 > 0.5 for each SWC at different pF. The second step consisted in running plant SDMs including modeled SWC jointly with the conventional topo-climatic variable used for plant SDMs. Third, SDMs were only run using the conventional topo-climatic variables. Finally, comparing the models obtained in the second and third steps allowed assessing the additional predictive power of SWC in plant SDMs. SWC ensemble models remained very good, with

  11. Household water use and conservation models using Monte Carlo techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Cahill

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The increased availability of end use measurement studies allows for mechanistic and detailed approaches to estimating household water demand and conservation potential. This study simulates water use in a single-family residential neighborhood using end-water-use parameter probability distributions generated from Monte Carlo sampling. This model represents existing water use conditions in 2010 and is calibrated to 2006–2011 metered data. A two-stage mixed integer optimization model is then developed to estimate the least-cost combination of long- and short-term conservation actions for each household. This least-cost conservation model provides an estimate of the upper bound of reasonable conservation potential for varying pricing and rebate conditions. The models were adapted from previous work in Jordan and are applied to a neighborhood in San Ramon, California in the eastern San Francisco Bay Area. The existing conditions model produces seasonal use results very close to the metered data. The least-cost conservation model suggests clothes washer rebates are among most cost-effective rebate programs for indoor uses. Retrofit of faucets and toilets is also cost-effective and holds the highest potential for water savings from indoor uses. This mechanistic modeling approach can improve understanding of water demand and estimate cost-effectiveness of water conservation programs.

  12. The role of hand calculations in ground water flow modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haitjema, Henk

    2006-01-01

    Most ground water modeling courses focus on the use of computer models and pay little or no attention to traditional analytic solutions to ground water flow problems. This shift in education seems logical. Why waste time to learn about the method of images, or why study analytic solutions to one-dimensional or radial flow problems? Computer models solve much more realistic problems and offer sophisticated graphical output, such as contour plots of potentiometric levels and ground water path lines. However, analytic solutions to elementary ground water flow problems do have something to offer over computer models: insight. For instance, an analytic one-dimensional or radial flow solution, in terms of a mathematical expression, may reveal which parameters affect the success of calibrating a computer model and what to expect when changing parameter values. Similarly, solutions for periodic forcing of one-dimensional or radial flow systems have resulted in a simple decision criterion to assess whether or not transient flow modeling is needed. Basic water balance calculations may offer a useful check on computer-generated capture zones for wellhead protection or aquifer remediation. An easily calculated "characteristic leakage length" provides critical insight into surface water and ground water interactions and flow in multi-aquifer systems. The list goes on. Familiarity with elementary analytic solutions and the capability of performing some simple hand calculations can promote appropriate (computer) modeling techniques, avoids unnecessary complexity, improves reliability, and is likely to save time and money. Training in basic hand calculations should be an important part of the curriculum of ground water modeling courses.

  13. Performance Analysis of Different NeQuick Ionospheric Model Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    WANG Ningbo

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Galileo adopts NeQuick model for single-frequency ionospheric delay corrections. For the standard operation of Galileo, NeQuick model is driven by the effective ionization level parameter Az instead of the solar activity level index, and the three broadcast ionospheric coefficients are determined by a second-polynomial through fitting the Az values estimated from globally distributed Galileo Sensor Stations (GSS. In this study, the processing strategies for the estimation of NeQuick ionospheric coefficients are discussed and the characteristics of the NeQuick coefficients are also analyzed. The accuracy of Global Position System (GPS broadcast Klobuchar, original NeQuick2 and fitted NeQuickC as well as Galileo broadcast NeQuickG models is evaluated over the continental and oceanic regions, respectively, in comparison with the ionospheric total electron content (TEC provided by global ionospheric maps (GIM, GPS test stations and JASON-2 altimeter. The results show that NeQuickG can mitigate ionospheric delay by 54.2%~65.8% on a global scale, and NeQuickC can correct for 71.1%~74.2% of the ionospheric delay. NeQuick2 performs at the same level with NeQuickG, which is a bit better than that of GPS broadcast Klobuchar model.

  14. Exploring parameter constraints on quintessential dark energy: The exponential model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bozek, Brandon; Abrahamse, Augusta; Albrecht, Andreas; Barnard, Michael

    2008-01-01

    We present an analysis of a scalar field model of dark energy with an exponential potential using the Dark Energy Task Force (DETF) simulated data models. Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling techniques we examine the ability of each simulated data set to constrain the parameter space of the exponential potential for data sets based on a cosmological constant and a specific exponential scalar field model. We compare our results with the constraining power calculated by the DETF using their 'w 0 -w a ' parametrization of the dark energy. We find that respective increases in constraining power from one stage to the next produced by our analysis give results consistent with DETF results. To further investigate the potential impact of future experiments, we also generate simulated data for an exponential model background cosmology which cannot be distinguished from a cosmological constant at DETF 'Stage 2', and show that for this cosmology good DETF Stage 4 data would exclude a cosmological constant by better than 3σ

  15. A new sewage exfiltration model--parameters and calibration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karpf, Christian; Krebs, Peter

    2011-01-01

    Exfiltration of waste water from sewer systems represents a potential danger for the soil and the aquifer. Common models, which are used to describe the exfiltration process, are based on the law of Darcy, extended by a more or less detailed consideration of the expansion of leaks, the characteristics of the soil and the colmation layer. But, due to the complexity of the exfiltration process, the calibration of these models includes a significant uncertainty. In this paper, a new exfiltration approach is introduced, which implements the dynamics of the clogging process and the structural conditions near sewer leaks. The calibration is realised according to experimental studies and analysis of groundwater infiltration to sewers. Furthermore, exfiltration rates and the sensitivity of the approach are estimated and evaluated, respectively, by Monte-Carlo simulations.

  16. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  17. Physicochemical parameters affecting the perception of borehole water quality in Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulinkina, Alexandra V; Plummer, Jeanine D; Chui, Kenneth K H; Kosinski, Karen C; Adomako-Adjei, Theodora; Egorov, Andrey I; Naumova, Elena N

    2017-08-01

    Rural Ghanaian communities continue using microbiologically contaminated surface water sources due in part to undesirable organoleptic characteristics of groundwater from boreholes. Our objective was to identify thresholds of physical and chemical parameters associated with consumer complaints related to groundwater. Water samples from 94 boreholes in the dry season and 68 boreholes in the rainy season were analyzed for 18 parameters. Interviews of consumers were conducted at each borehole regarding five commonly expressed water quality problems (salty taste, presence of particles, unfavorable scent, oily sheen formation on the water surface, and staining of starchy foods during cooking). Threshold levels of water quality parameters predictive of complaints were determined using the Youden index maximizing the sum of sensitivity and specificity. The probability of complaints at various parameter concentrations was estimated using logistic regression. Exceedances of WHO guidelines were detected for pH, turbidity, chloride, iron, and manganese. Concentrations of total dissolved solids (TDS) above 172mg/L were associated with salty taste complaints. Although the WHO guideline is 1000mg/L, even at half the guideline, the likelihood of salty taste complaint was 75%. Iron concentrations above 0.11, 0.14 and 0.43mg/L (WHO guideline value 0.3mg/L) were associated with complaints of unfavorable scent, oily sheen, and food staining, respectively. Iron and TDS concentrations exhibited strong spatial clustering associated with specific geological formations. Improved groundwater sources in rural African communities that technically meet WHO water quality guidelines may be underutilized in preference of unimproved sources for drinking and domestic uses, compromising human health and sustainability of improved water infrastructure. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  18. WATER LAW AND MODEL OF RESPONSIBLE WATER USAGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitri Olegovitch Sivakov

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available As it is known, the water law regulates dynamic social relationships concerning study, usage and protection of water objects, as well as their transformation. The water law explicitly regulates water economic activities. The regulatory method of the water law has a mixed nature and thus is not distinctive. It predetermines in some cases equality and independence of subjects of relationships (water usage agreement and in other – power and submission (permissive nature of water usage. The aim of the publication is to promote scientific ideas about the fate of the water law in order to make a further polygonal and productive discussion in which the reader is invited to participate. Scientific novelty. In 2016 the monograph of D.O. Sivakov “Water law: dynamics, problems, perspectives: monograph” (second edition, reviewed and updated. Moscow: Stolitsa, 2016. 540 p. was published. In 2017 the author reconsidered some conclusions of his monograph and applied scientific achievements of theory of state and law in water sphere. In accordance with this, it is important to mention research of Petrov D.E. related to issues of differentiation and integration of structural formations of Russian legal system. The scientific novelty of the article includes the synthesis of ideas of the monograph and some achievements of theory of state and law. Methods of research. The author of the article relies on some collective and individual monographic studies in the sphere of theory of state and law, natural resource law, arctic law, financial law. Basic results of research. The author promotes the model of responsible water usage. This model shall be based not on the unstable balance of economic and environmental interests (which shall practically lead to the domination of economic interests, but on the obligatory combination of economic activities with technologies, ensuring maximal preservation of water resources. Responsible water usage shall mean a system of

  19. Application of multi-parameter chorus and plasmaspheric hiss wave models in radiation belt modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aryan, H.; Kang, S. B.; Balikhin, M. A.; Fok, M. C. H.; Agapitov, O. V.; Komar, C. M.; Kanekal, S. G.; Nagai, T.; Sibeck, D. G.

    2017-12-01

    Numerical simulation studies of the Earth's radiation belts are important to understand the acceleration and loss of energetic electrons. The Comprehensive Inner Magnetosphere-Ionosphere (CIMI) model along with many other radiation belt models require inputs for pitch angle, energy, and cross diffusion of electrons, due to chorus and plasmaspheric hiss waves. These parameters are calculated using statistical wave distribution models of chorus and plasmaspheric hiss amplitudes. In this study we incorporate recently developed multi-parameter chorus and plasmaspheric hiss wave models based on geomagnetic index and solar wind parameters. We perform CIMI simulations for two geomagnetic storms and compare the flux enhancement of MeV electrons with data from the Van Allen Probes and Akebono satellites. We show that the relativistic electron fluxes calculated with multi-parameter wave models resembles the observations more accurately than the relativistic electron fluxes calculated with single-parameter wave models. This indicates that wave models based on a combination of geomagnetic index and solar wind parameters are more effective as inputs to radiation belt models.

  20. A double parameters measurement of steam-water two-phase flow with single orifice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhong Shuoping; Tong Yunxian; Yu Meiying

    1992-08-01

    A double parameters measurement of steam-water two-phase flow with single orifice is described. An on-line measurement device based on micro-computer has been developed. The measured r.m.s error of steam quality is less than 6.5% and the measured relative r.m.s. error of mass flow rate is less than 9%

  1. Water quality parameters in the major rivers of Kainji Lake National ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    USER

    statistical analysis. RESULTS. Tables 1 - 4 show the physicochemical characterization of aquatic media of Kainji Lake National Park for two years 2005 and 2006. ...... Appendix IV. NAFDAC packaged water quality standard physiochemical examination. S/N. Parameter/Unit. WHO Standard. 1. Colour Hazen Units. 15. 2.

  2. Effects of environmental and water quality parameters on the functioning of copepod assemblages in tropical estuaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araujo, Adriana V.; Dias, Cristina O.; Bonecker, Sérgio L. C.

    2017-07-01

    We examined changes in the functioning of copepod assemblages with increasing pollution in estuaries, using sampling standardization of the salinity range to enable comparisons. Copepod assemblages were analyzed in four southeast Brazilian estuaries with different water quality levels and hydrodynamic characteristics over two years. We obtained mesozooplankton samples together with environmental and water quality parameters in the estuaries, every two months under predetermined salinities ranging from 15 to 25. The values of parameters, except species size, associated with the functioning of the copepod assemblages (biomass, productivity, and turnover rate) did not differ among estuaries. However, in the more polluted estuaries, the biomass and productivity of copepod assemblages of mesozooplankton were negatively correlated with concentration of pollution indicator parameters. Conversely, in the less polluted estuaries some degree of enrichment still seems to increase the system biomass and productivity, as these parameters were inversely related to indicators of improved water quality. The pollution level of estuaries distorted the relationship between temperature and the efficiency of converting energy to organic matter. In the less polluted estuaries, the relationship between turnover rate and temperature was over 70%, while in the most polluted estuaries, this relationship was only approximately 50%. Our results demonstrated that the functioning of assemblages in the estuaries was affected differently by increasing pollution depending on the water quality level of the system. Thus, investigating the functioning of assemblages can be a useful tool for the analysis of estuarine conditions.

  3. A holistic water depth simulation model for small ponds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Shakir; Ghosh, Narayan C.; Mishra, P. K.; Singh, R. K.

    2015-10-01

    Estimation of time varying water depth and time to empty of a pond is prerequisite for comprehensive and coordinated planning of water resource for its effective utilization. A holistic water depth simulation (HWDS) and time to empty (TE) model for small, shallow ephemeral ponds have been derived by employing the generalized model based on the Green-Ampt equation in the basic water balance equation. The HWDS model includes time varying rainfall, runoff, surface water evaporation, outflow and advancement of wetting front length as external inputs. The TE model includes two external inputs; surface water evaporation and advancement of wetting front length. Both the models also consider saturated hydraulic conductivity and fillable porosity of the pond's bed material as their parameters. The solution of the HWDS model involved numerical iteration in successive time intervals. The HWDS model has successfully evaluated with 3 years of field data from two small ponds located within a watershed in a semi-arid region in western India. The HWDS model simulated time varying water depth in the ponds with high accuracy as shown by correlation coefficient (R2 ⩾ 0.9765), index of agreement (d ⩾ 0.9878), root mean square errors (RMSE ⩽ 0.20 m) and percent bias (PB ⩽ 6.23%) for the pooled data sets of the measured and simulated water depth. The statistical F and t-tests also confirmed the reliability of the HWDS model at probability level, p ⩽ 0.0001. The response of the TE model showed its ability to estimate the time to empty the ponds. An additional field calibration and validation of the HWDS and TE models with observed field data in varied hydro-climatic conditions could be conducted to increase the applicability and credibility of the models.

  4. [Effects of water stress on red-edge parameters and yield in wheat cropping].

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Ke-Xun; Zaho, Shu-He; Lai, Jian-Bin; Luo, Yun-Xiao; Qin, Zhi-Hao

    2013-08-01

    The objective of the present paper is to study the influence of water stress on wheat spectrum red edge parameters by using field wheat spectrum data obtained from water stress experiment. Firstly, the authors analyzed the influence of water stress on wheat spectrum reflectance. Then the authors got the wheat red edge position and red edge peak through calculating wheat spectrum first-order differential and analyzed the influence of water stress on wheat red edge parameters. Finally the authors discussed the relationship between red peak and wheat yield. The results showed that the wheat red edge position shows "red shift" at the beginning of the wheat growth period and "blue shift" at the later period of the wheat growth period under the water stress experiment. Also, the red edge peak of the wheat showed that red edge peak increased with the water stress sharpening at the beginning of the wheat growth period, and then the red edge peak reduced with the water stress sharpening. The wheat red edge peak presented positive correlation with the wheat yield before the elongation period, and exhibited negative correlation after that period.

  5. Thermodynamic Modeling of Natural Gas Systems Containing Water

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karakatsani, Eirini K.; Kontogeorgis, Georgios M.

    2013-01-01

    As the need for dew point specifications remains very urgent in the natural gas industry, the development of accurate thermodynamic models, which will match experimental data and will allow reliable extrapolations, is needed. Accurate predictions of the gas phase water content in equilibrium...... with a heavy phase were previously obtained using cubic plus association (CPA) coupled with a solid phase model in the case of hydrates, for the binary systems of water–methane and water–nitrogen and a few natural gas mixtures. In this work, CPA is being validated against new experimental data, both water...... content and phase equilibrium data, and solid model parameters are being estimated for four natural gas main components (methane, ethane, propane, and carbon dioxide). Different tests for the solid model parameters are reported, including vapor-hydrate-equilibria (VHE) and liquid-hydrate-equilibria (LHE...

  6. Ecohydrological model parameter selection for stream health evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woznicki, Sean A; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Ross, Dennis M; Zhang, Zhen; Wang, Lizhu; Esfahanian, Abdol-Hossein

    2015-04-01

    Variable selection is a critical step in development of empirical stream health prediction models. This study develops a framework for selecting important in-stream variables to predict four measures of biological integrity: total number of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) taxa, family index of biotic integrity (FIBI), Hilsenhoff biotic integrity (HBI), and fish index of biotic integrity (IBI). Over 200 flow regime and water quality variables were calculated using the Hydrologic Index Tool (HIT) and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Streams of the River Raisin watershed in Michigan were grouped using the Strahler stream classification system (orders 1-3 and orders 4-6), k-means clustering technique (two clusters: C1 and C2), and all streams (one grouping). For each grouping, variable selection was performed using Bayesian variable selection, principal component analysis, and Spearman's rank correlation. Following selection of best variable sets, models were developed to predict the measures of biological integrity using adaptive-neuro fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS), a technique well-suited to complex, nonlinear ecological problems. Multiple unique variable sets were identified, all which differed by selection method and stream grouping. Final best models were mostly built using the Bayesian variable selection method. The most effective stream grouping method varied by health measure, although k-means clustering and grouping by stream order were always superior to models built without grouping. Commonly selected variables were related to streamflow magnitude, rate of change, and seasonal nitrate concentration. Each best model was effective in simulating stream health observations, with EPT taxa validation R2 ranging from 0.67 to 0.92, FIBI ranging from 0.49 to 0.85, HBI from 0.56 to 0.75, and fish IBI at 0.99 for all best models. The comprehensive variable selection and modeling process proposed here is a robust method that extends our

  7. A theoretical model of water and trade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dang, Qian; Konar, Megan; Reimer, Jeffrey J.; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Lin, Xiaowen; Zeng, Ruijie

    2016-03-01

    Water is an essential input for agricultural production. Agriculture, in turn, is globalized through the trade of agricultural commodities. In this paper, we develop a theoretical model that emphasizes four tradeoffs involving water-use decision-making that are important yet not always considered in a consistent framework. One tradeoff focuses on competition for water among different economic sectors. A second tradeoff examines the possibility that certain types of agricultural investments can offset water use. A third tradeoff explores the possibility that the rest of the world can be a source of supply or demand for a country's water-using commodities. The fourth tradeoff concerns how variability in water supplies influences farmer decision-making. We show conditions under which trade liberalization affect water use. Two policy scenarios to reduce water use are evaluated. First, we derive a target tax that reduces water use without offsetting the gains from trade liberalization, although important tradeoffs exist between economic performance and resource use. Second, we show how subsidization of water-saving technologies can allow producers to use less water without reducing agricultural production, making such subsidization an indirect means of influencing water use decision-making. Finally, we outline conditions under which riskiness of water availability affects water use. These theoretical model results generate hypotheses that can be tested empirically in future work.

  8. 'Hidden parameters' of infrared drying for determining low water contents in instant powders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isengard, H D; Färber, J M

    1999-09-13

    Drying techniques are very frequently used and in many cases official methods for moisture determination. These methods, however, do not yield the water content as a result but a mass loss which is caused not only by the evaporation of water but by all substances volatile under the drying conditions, be they original components of the product or be they produced by decomposition reactions during the drying process. This mass loss varies therefore with the parameters applied like time, temperature, form of energy transfer, atmospheric pressure or surrounding humidity. To shorten determination times of many hours in common air ovens with convective heating, techniques with more efficient heating principles have been developed. One of these is infrared drying. With such methods, however, the danger of product decomposition and, consequently, of wrong results rises, particularly when the water content is low. It could be shown, however, that analyses are possible, even for beverage instant powders with very low water contents. Moreover, parameter sets could be found to match the infrared results exactly with the true water content determined by Karl Fischer titration. Another essential finding was that not only the parameters for the drying programme itself like time, temperature and end-point criterion are important, but also, and this to a surprisingly great extent, the number of consecutive measurements and the duration of the intervals between analyses. This effect again depends extremely on the type of apparatus.

  9. The electronic disability record: purpose, parameters, and model use case.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulu, Bengisu; Horan, Thomas A

    2009-01-01

    The active engagement of consumers is an important factor in achieving widespread success of health information systems. The disability community represents a major segment of the healthcare arena, with more than 50 million Americans experiencing some form of disability. In keeping with the "consumer-driven" approach to e-health systems, this paper considers the distinctive aspects of electronic and personal health record use by this segment of society. Drawing upon the information shared during two national policy forums on this topic, the authors present the concept of Electronic Disability Records (EDR). The authors outline the purpose and parameters of such records, with specific attention to its ability to organize health and financial data in a manner that can be used to expedite the disability determination process. In doing so, the authors discuss its interaction with Electronic Health Records (EHR) and Personal Health Records (PHR). The authors then draw upon these general parameters to outline a model use case for disability determination and discuss related implications for disability health management. The paper further reports on the subsequent considerations of these and related deliberations by the American Health Information Community (AHIC).

  10. A Budyko-type Model for Human Water Consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, X.; Zhao, J.; Wang, D.; Sivapalan, M.

    2017-12-01

    With the expansion of human water footprint, water crisis is no longer only a conflict or competition for water between different economic sectors, but also increasingly between human and the environment. In order to describe the emergent dynamics and patterns of the interaction, a theoretical framework that encapsulates the physical and societal controls impacting human water consumption is needed. In traditional hydrology, Budyko-type models are simple but efficient descriptions of vegetation-mediated hydrologic cycle in catchments, i.e., the partitioning of mean annual precipitation into runoff and evapotranspiration. Plant water consumption plays a crucial role in the process. Hypothesized similarities between human-water and vegetation-water interactions, including water demand, constraints and system functioning, give the idea of corresponding Budyko-type framework for human water consumption at the catchment scale. Analogous to variables of Budyko-type models for hydrologic cycle, water demand, water consumption, environmental water use and available water are corresponding to potential evaporation, actual evaporation, runoff and precipitation respectively. Human water consumption data, economic and hydro-meteorological data for 51 human-impacted catchments and 10 major river basins in China are assembled to look for the existence of a Budyko-type relationship for human water consumption, and to seek explanations for the spread in the observed relationship. Guided by this, a Budyko-type analytical model is derived based on application of an optimality principle, that of maximum water benefit. The model derived has the same functional form and mathematical features as those that apply for the original Budyko model. Parameters of the new Budyko-type model for human consumption are linked to economic and social factors. The results of this paper suggest that the functioning of both social and hydrologic subsystems within catchment systems can be explored within

  11. The Parameters Controlling the Burning Efficiency of In-Situ Burning of Crude Oil on Water

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van Gelderen, Laurens; Jomaas, Grunde

    2017-01-01

    Parameters that control the burning efficiency of in-situ burning of crude oil on water were identified by studying the influence of the initial slick thickness, vaporization order, oil slick diameter, weathering state of the oil, heat losses to the water layer and heat flux to the fuel surface...... on the burning efficiency for light and heavy crude oils. These parameters were studied in several small scale and intermediate scale experimental setups. The results showed that the heat losses to the water layer increase with increasing burning time because the components in a crude oil evaporate from volatile...... to non-volatile. Due to the relatively low heat feedback (reradiation and convection, in kW/m2) to the fuel surface of small scale pool fires, as compared to large scale pool fires, these heat losses were shown to limit the burning efficiency in small scale experiments. By subjecting small scale crude...

  12. The S-parameter in Holographic Technicolor Models

    CERN Document Server

    Agashe, Kaustubh; Grojean, Christophe; Reece, Matthew

    2007-01-01

    We study the S parameter, considering especially its sign, in models of electroweak symmetry breaking (EWSB) in extra dimensions, with fermions localized near the UV brane. Such models are conjectured to be dual to 4D strong dynamics triggering EWSB. The motivation for such a study is that a negative value of S can significantly ameliorate the constraints from electroweak precision data on these models, allowing lower mass scales (TeV or below) for the new particles and leading to easier discovery at the LHC. We first extend an earlier proof of S>0 for EWSB by boundary conditions in arbitrary metric to the case of general kinetic functions for the gauge fields or arbitrary kinetic mixing. We then consider EWSB in the bulk by a Higgs VEV showing that S is positive for arbitrary metric and Higgs profile, assuming that the effects from higher-dimensional operators in the 5D theory are sub-leading and can therefore be neglected. For the specific case of AdS_5 with a power law Higgs profile, we also show that S ~ ...

  13. Extracting Structure Parameters of Dimers for Molecular Tunneling Ionization Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Song-Feng; Huang, Fang; Wang, Guo-Li; Zhou, Xiao-Xin

    2016-03-01

    We determine structure parameters of the highest occupied molecular orbital (HOMO) of 27 dimers for the molecular tunneling ionization (so called MO-ADK) model of Tong et al. [Phys. Rev. A 66 (2002) 033402]. The molecular wave functions with correct asymptotic behavior are obtained by solving the time-independent Schrödinger equation with B-spline functions and molecular potentials which are numerically created using the density functional theory. We examine the alignment-dependent tunneling ionization probabilities from MO-ADK model for several molecules by comparing with the molecular strong-field approximation (MO-SFA) calculations. We show the molecular Perelomov–Popov–Terent'ev (MO-PPT) can successfully give the laser wavelength dependence of ionization rates (or probabilities). Based on the MO-PPT model, two diatomic molecules having valence orbital with antibonding systems (i.e., Cl2, Ne2) show strong ionization suppression when compared with their corresponding closest companion atoms. Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 11164025, 11264036, 11465016, 11364038, the Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China under Grant No. 20116203120001, and the Basic Scientific Research Foundation for Institution of Higher Learning of Gansu Province

  14. Sound propagation and absorption in foam - A distributed parameter model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manson, L.; Lieberman, S.

    1971-01-01

    Liquid-base foams are highly effective sound absorbers. A better understanding of the mechanisms of sound absorption in foams was sought by exploration of a mathematical model of bubble pulsation and coupling and the development of a distributed-parameter mechanical analog. A solution by electric-circuit analogy was thus obtained and transmission-line theory was used to relate the physical properties of the foams to the characteristic impedance and propagation constants of the analog transmission line. Comparison of measured physical properties of the foam with values obtained from measured acoustic impedance and propagation constants and the transmission-line theory showed good agreement. We may therefore conclude that the sound propagation and absorption mechanisms in foam are accurately described by the resonant response of individual bubbles coupled to neighboring bubbles.

  15. Verification Techniques for Parameter Selection and Bayesian Model Calibration Presented for an HIV Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wentworth, Mami Tonoe

    Uncertainty quantification plays an important role when making predictive estimates of model responses. In this context, uncertainty quantification is defined as quantifying and reducing uncertainties, and the objective is to quantify uncertainties in parameter, model and measurements, and propagate the uncertainties through the model, so that one can make a predictive estimate with quantified uncertainties. Two of the aspects of uncertainty quantification that must be performed prior to propagating uncertainties are model calibration and parameter selection. There are several efficient techniques for these processes; however, the accuracy of these methods are often not verified. This is the motivation for our work, and in this dissertation, we present and illustrate verification frameworks for model calibration and parameter selection in the context of biological and physical models. First, HIV models, developed and improved by [2, 3, 8], describe the viral infection dynamics of an HIV disease. These are also used to make predictive estimates of viral loads and T-cell counts and to construct an optimal control for drug therapy. Estimating input parameters is an essential step prior to uncertainty quantification. However, not all the parameters are identifiable, implying that they cannot be uniquely determined by the observations. These unidentifiable parameters can be partially removed by performing parameter selection, a process in which parameters that have minimal impacts on the model response are determined. We provide verification techniques for Bayesian model calibration and parameter selection for an HIV model. As an example of a physical model, we employ a heat model with experimental measurements presented in [10]. A steady-state heat model represents a prototypical behavior for heat conduction and diffusion process involved in a thermal-hydraulic model, which is a part of nuclear reactor models. We employ this simple heat model to illustrate verification

  16. Modeling phytoremediation of nitrogen-polluted water using water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayo, Aloyce W.; Hanai, Emmanuel E.

    2017-08-01

    Water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes) has a great potential for purification of wastewater through physical, chemical and biological mechanisms. In an attempt to improve the quality of effluents discharged from waste stabilization ponds at the University of Dar es Salaam, a pilot plant was constructed to experiment the effectiveness of this plants for transformation and removal of nitrogen. Samples of wastewater were collected and examined for water quality parameters, including pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen, and various forms of nitrogen, which were used as input parameters in a kinetic mathematical model. A conceptual model was then developed to model various processes in the system using STELLA 6.0.1 software. The results show that total nitrogen was removed by 63.9%. Denitrification contributed 73.8% of the removed nitrogen. Other dominant nitrogen removal mechanisms are net sedimentation and uptake by water hyacinth, which contributed 16.7% and 9.5% of the removed nitrogen, respectively. The model indicated that in presence of water hyacinth biofilm about 1.26 g Nm-2day-1 of nitrogen was removed. However, in the absence of biofilm in water hyacinth pond, the permanent nitrogen removal was only 0.89 g Nm-2day-1. This suggests that in absence of water hyacinth, the efficiency of nitrogen removal would decrease by 29.4%.

  17. Flood Water Crossing: Laboratory Model Investigations for Water Velocity Reductions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kasnon N.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The occurrence of floods may give a negative impact towards road traffic in terms of difficulties in mobilizing traffic as well as causing damage to the vehicles, which later cause them to be stuck in the traffic and trigger traffic problems. The high velocity of water flows occur when there is no existence of objects capable of diffusing the water velocity on the road surface. The shape, orientation and size of the object to be placed beside the road as a diffuser are important for the effective flow attenuation of water. In order to investigate the water flow, a laboratory experiment was set up and models were constructed to study the flow velocity reduction. The velocity of water before and after passing through the diffuser objects was investigated. This paper focuses on laboratory experiments to determine the flow velocity of the water using sensors before and after passing through two best diffuser objects chosen from a previous flow pattern experiment.

  18. Integrated water resources modelling for assessing sustainable water governance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skoulikaris, Charalampos; Ganoulis, Jacques; Tsoukalas, Ioannis; Makropoulos, Christos; Gkatzogianni, Eleni; Michas, Spyros

    2015-04-01

    Climatic variations and resulting future uncertainties, increasing anthropogenic pressures, changes in political boundaries, ineffective or dysfunctional governance of natural resources and environmental degradation are some of the most fundamental challenges with which worldwide initiatives fostering the "think globally, act locally" concept are concerned. Different initiatives target the protection of the environment through sustainable development; Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) and Transboundary Water Resources Management (TWRM) in the case of internationally shared waters are frameworks that have gained wide political acceptance at international level and form part of water resources management planning and implementation on a global scale. Both concepts contribute in promoting economic efficiency, social equity and environmental sustainability. Inspired by these holistic management approaches, the present work describes an effort that uses integrated water resources modelling for the development of an integrated, coherent and flexible water governance tool. This work in which a sequence of computer based models and tools are linked together, aims at the evaluation of the sustainable operation of projects generating renewable energy from water as well as the sustainability of agricultural demands and environmental security in terms of environmental flow under various climatic and operational conditions. More specifically, catchment hydrological modelling is coupled with dams' simulation models and thereafter with models dedicated to water resources management and planning,while the bridging of models is conducted through geographic information systems and custom programming tools. For the case of Mesta/Nestos river basin different priority rules in the dams' operational schedule (e.g. priority given to power production as opposed to irrigation needs and vice versa), as well as different irrigation demands, e.g. current water demands as opposed to

  19. A Theoretical Model of Water and Trade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dang, Q.; Konar, M.; Reimer, J.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Lin, X.; Zeng, R.

    2015-12-01

    Water is an essential factor of agricultural production. Agriculture, in turn, is globalized through the trade of food commodities. In this paper, we develop a theoretical model of a small open economy that explicitly incorporates water resources. The model emphasizes three tradeoffs involving water decision-making that are important yet not always considered within the existing literature. One tradeoff focuses on competition for water among different sectors when there is a shock to one of the sectors only, such as trade liberalization and consequent higher demand for the product. A second tradeoff concerns the possibility that there may or may not be substitutes for water, such as increased use of sophisticated irrigation technology as a means to increase crop output in the absence of higher water availability. A third tradeoff explores the possibility that the rest of the world can be a source of supply or demand for a country's water-using products. A number of propositions are proven. For example, while trade liberalization tends to increase water use, increased pressure on water supplies can be moderated by way of a tax that is derivable with observable economic phenomena. Another example is that increased riskiness of water availability tends to cause water users to use less water than would be the case under profit maximization. These theoretical model results generate hypotheses that can be tested empirically in future work.

  20. BAYESIAN PREDICTION OF GENETIC PARAMETERS IN Eucalyptus globulus CLONES UNDER WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Freddy Mora

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available http://dx.doi.org/10.5902/198050989297A Bayesian analysis of genetic parameters for growth traits at twelve months after planting was carried out in twenty nine Eucalyptus globulus clones in southern Chile. Two different environmental conditions were considered: 1 Non-irrigation and; 2 Plants were irrigated with a localized irrigation system. The Bayesian approach was performed using Gibbs sampling algorithm in a clone-environment interaction model. Inheritability values ​​were high in the water supply condition (posterior mode: H2=0.41, 0.36 and 0.39 for height, diameter and sectional area, respectively, while in the environment without irrigation, the inheritabilities were significantly lower, which was confirmed by the Bayesian credible intervals (95% probability. The posterior mode of the genetic correlation between sites was positive and high for all traits (r=0.7, 0.65 and 0.8, for height, diameter and sectional area, respectively and according to the credible interval, it was statistically different from zero, indicating a non-significant interaction.

  1. Influence of domestic hot water parameters on the energy consumption of large buildings in Senegal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ndoye, Banda; Sarr, Mamadou

    2003-01-01

    This paper investigates the effects of domestic hot water (DHW) parameters on the energy consumption of large buildings in Senegal. Three types of reference buildings have been selected and developed (residence, office and hotel), and for each of them, the standard values of the three studied parameters (distribution temperature, flow rate and heat tank losses) are defined. The DOE-2.1E building energy program has been employed for computer simulations. It has been found that if the magnitude of their positive incremental impact is considered, the DHW parameters can be classified according to the following decreasing order: 1. heat tank losses, 2. flow rate and 3. distribution temperature. Then, for each of the three types of buildings, we established a discrete series of options of electricity consumption reduction by limitation of the DHW parameters values. For further developments, these options can be employed by researchers to build an Energy Efficiency Code applicable to large buildings in West Africa

  2. Hydrological modeling in alpine catchments: sensing the critical parameters towards an efficient model calibration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achleitner, S; Rinderer, M; Kirnbauer, R

    2009-01-01

    For the Tyrolean part of the river Inn, a hybrid model for flood forecast has been set up and is currently in its test phase. The system is a hybrid system which comprises of a hydraulic 1D model for the river Inn, and the hydrological models HQsim (Rainfall-runoff-discharge model) and the snow and ice melt model SES for modeling the rainfall runoff form non-glaciated and glaciated tributary catchment respectively. Within this paper the focus is put on the hydrological modeling of the totally 49 connected non-glaciated catchments realized with the software HQsim. In the course of model calibration, the identification of the most sensitive parameters is important aiming at an efficient calibration procedure. The indicators used for explaining the parameter sensitivities were chosen specifically for the purpose of flood forecasting. Finally five model parameters could be identified as being sensitive for model calibration when aiming for a well calibrated model for flood conditions. In addition two parameters were identified which are sensitive in situations where the snow line plays an important role.

  3. Misspecification in Latent Change Score Models: Consequences for Parameter Estimation, Model Evaluation, and Predicting Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, D Angus; Nuttall, Amy K; Bowles, Ryan P

    2018-01-01

    Latent change score models (LCS) are conceptually powerful tools for analyzing longitudinal data (McArdle & Hamagami, 2001). However, applications of these models typically include constraints on key parameters over time. Although practically useful, strict invariance over time in these parameters is unlikely in real data. This study investigates the robustness of LCS when invariance over time is incorrectly imposed on key change-related parameters. Monte Carlo simulation methods were used to explore the impact of misspecification on parameter estimation, predicted trajectories of change, and model fit in the dual change score model, the foundational LCS. When constraints were incorrectly applied, several parameters, most notably the slope (i.e., constant change) factor mean and autoproportion coefficient, were severely and consistently biased, as were regression paths to the slope factor when external predictors of change were included. Standard fit indices indicated that the misspecified models fit well, partly because mean level trajectories over time were accurately captured. Loosening constraint improved the accuracy of parameter estimates, but estimates were more unstable, and models frequently failed to converge. Results suggest that potentially common sources of misspecification in LCS can produce distorted impressions of developmental processes, and that identifying and rectifying the situation is a challenge.

  4. Simplified, rapid, and inexpensive estimation of water primary productivity based on chlorophyll fluorescence parameter Fo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hui; Zhou, Wei; Chen, Weixian; Xie, Wei; Jiang, Liping; Liang, Qinlang; Huang, Mingjun; Wu, Zongwen; Wang, Qiang

    2017-04-01

    Primary productivity in water environment relies on the photosynthetic production of microalgae. Chlorophyll fluorescence is widely used to detect the growth status and photosynthetic efficiency of microalgae. In this study, a method was established to determine the Chl a content, cell density of microalgae, and water primary productivity by measuring chlorophyll fluorescence parameter Fo. A significant linear relationship between chlorophyll fluorescence parameter Fo and Chl a content of microalgae, as well as between Fo and cell density, was observed under pure-culture conditions. Furthermore, water samples collected from natural aquaculture ponds were used to validate the correlation between Fo and water primary productivity, which is closely related to Chl a content in water. Thus, for a given pure culture of microalgae or phytoplankton (mainly microalgae) in aquaculture ponds or other natural ponds for which the relationship between the Fo value and Chl a content or cell density could be established, Chl a content or cell density could be determined by measuring the Fo value, thereby making it possible to calculate the water primary productivity. It is believed that this method can provide a convenient way of efficiently estimating the primary productivity in natural aquaculture ponds and bringing economic value in limnetic ecology assessment, as well as in algal bloom monitoring. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  5. Estimation of water quality parameters applying satellite data fusion and mining techniques in the lake Albufera de Valencia (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doña, Carolina; Chang, Ni-Bin; Vannah, Benjamin W.; Sánchez, Juan Manuel; Delegido, Jesús; Camacho, Antonio; Caselles, Vicente

    2014-05-01

    Linked to the enforcement of the European Water Framework Directive (2000) (WFD), which establishes that all countries of the European Union have to avoid deterioration, improve and retrieve the status of the water bodies, and maintain their good ecological status, several remote sensing studies have been carried out to monitor and understand the water quality variables trend. Lake Albufera de Valencia (Spain) is a hypereutrophic system that can present chrorophyll a concentrations over 200 mg·m-3 and transparency (Secchi disk) values below 20 cm, needing to retrieve and improve its water quality. The principal aim of our work was to develop algorithms to estimate water quality parameters such as chlorophyll a concentration and water transparency, which are informative of the eutrophication and ecological status, using remote sensing data. Remote sensing data from Terra/MODIS, Landsat 5-TM and Landsat 7-ETM+ images were used to carry out this study. Landsat images are useful to analyze the spatial variability of the water quality variables, as well as to monitor small to medium size water bodies due to its 30-m spatial resolution. But, the poor temporal resolution of Landsat, with a 16-day revisit time, is an issue. In this work we tried to solve this data gap by applying fusion techniques between Landsat and MODIS images. Although the lower spatial resolution of MODIS is 250/500-m, one image per day is available. Thus, synthetic Landsat images were created using data fusion for no data acquisition dates. Good correlation values were obtained when comparing original and synthetic Landsat images. Genetic programming was used to develop models for predicting water quality. Using the reflectance bands of the synthetic Landsat images as inputs to the model, values of R2 = 0.94 and RMSE = 8 mg·m-3 were obtained when comparing modeled and observed values of chlorophyll a, and values of R2= 0.91 and RMSE = 4 cm for the transparency (Secchi disk). Finally, concentration

  6. Assessing the relative importance of parameter and forcing uncertainty and their interactions in conceptual hydrological model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mockler, E. M.; Chun, K. P.; Sapriza-Azuri, G.; Bruen, M.; Wheater, H. S.

    2016-11-01

    Predictions of river flow dynamics provide vital information for many aspects of water management including water resource planning, climate adaptation, and flood and drought assessments. Many of the subjective choices that modellers make including model and criteria selection can have a significant impact on the magnitude and distribution of the output uncertainty. Hydrological modellers are tasked with understanding and minimising the uncertainty surrounding streamflow predictions before communicating the overall uncertainty to decision makers. Parameter uncertainty in conceptual rainfall-runoff models has been widely investigated, and model structural uncertainty and forcing data have been receiving increasing attention. This study aimed to assess uncertainties in streamflow predictions due to forcing data and the identification of behavioural parameter sets in 31 Irish catchments. By combining stochastic rainfall ensembles and multiple parameter sets for three conceptual rainfall-runoff models, an analysis of variance model was used to decompose the total uncertainty in streamflow simulations into contributions from (i) forcing data, (ii) identification of model parameters and (iii) interactions between the two. The analysis illustrates that, for our subjective choices, hydrological model selection had a greater contribution to overall uncertainty, while performance criteria selection influenced the relative intra-annual uncertainties in streamflow predictions. Uncertainties in streamflow predictions due to the method of determining parameters were relatively lower for wetter catchments, and more evenly distributed throughout the year when the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of logarithmic values of flow (lnNSE) was the evaluation criterion.

  7. An improved shallow water equation model for water animation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ai, Mingjing; Du, Anding; Xu, Han; Niu, Jianwei

    2017-03-01

    In this paper, we proposed a new scheme for simulating water flows under shallow water assumption. The method is an extension of traditional shallow water equations. In contrast to traditional methods, we design a dynamic coordinate system for modeling in order to efficiently simulate water flows. Within this system, we derive our specialized shallow water equations directly from the Navier-Stockes equation. At the same time, we develop an implicit mechanism for solving the advection term and a vector projection operator for solving the external forces acting on water. We also present a two-way coupling method for simulating the interaction between water and rigid solid. The experimental results show that the proposed scheme can achieve a more realistic and accurate water model compared with the traditional methods, especially when the solid surfaces are too steep. Also we demonstrate the efficiency of our method in several scenes, all run at least 50 frames per second on average which allows real-time simulation.

  8. Physical property parameter set for modeling ICPP aqueous wastes with ASPEN electrolyte NRTL model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schindler, R.E.

    1996-09-01

    The aqueous waste evaporators at the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant (ICPP) are being modeled using ASPEN software. The ASPEN software calculates chemical and vapor-liquid equilibria with activity coefficients calculated using the electrolyte Non-Random Two Liquid (NRTL) model for local excess Gibbs free energies of interactions between ions and molecules in solution. The use of the electrolyte NRTL model requires the determination of empirical parameters for the excess Gibbs free energies of the interactions between species in solution. This report covers the development of a set parameters, from literature data, for the use of the electrolyte NRTL model with the major solutes in the ICPP aqueous wastes

  9. Testing for parameter instability across different modeling frameworks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Calvori, Francesco; Creal, Drew; Koopman, Siem Jan; Lucas, André

    2017-01-01

    We develop a new parameter instability test that generalizes the seminal ARCHLagrange Multiplier test of Engle (1982) for a constant variance against the alternative of autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity to settings with nonlinear timevarying parameters and non-Gaussian distributions. We

  10. Statistical osteoporosis models using composite finite elements: a parameter study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfram, Uwe; Schwen, Lars Ole; Simon, Ulrich; Rumpf, Martin; Wilke, Hans-Joachim

    2009-09-18

    Osteoporosis is a widely spread disease with severe consequences for patients and high costs for health care systems. The disease is characterised by a loss of bone mass which induces a loss of mechanical performance and structural integrity. It was found that transverse trabeculae are thinned and perforated while vertical trabeculae stay intact. For understanding these phenomena and the mechanisms leading to fractures of trabecular bone due to osteoporosis, numerous researchers employ micro-finite element models. To avoid disadvantages in setting up classical finite element models, composite finite elements (CFE) can be used. The aim of the study is to test the potential of CFE. For that, a parameter study on numerical lattice samples with statistically simulated, simplified osteoporosis is performed. These samples are subjected to compression and shear loading. Results show that the biggest drop of compressive stiffness is reached for transverse isotropic structures losing 32% of the trabeculae (minus 89.8% stiffness). The biggest drop in shear stiffness is found for an isotropic structure also losing 32% of the trabeculae (minus 67.3% stiffness). The study indicates that losing trabeculae leads to a worse drop of macroscopic stiffness than thinning of trabeculae. The results further demonstrate the advantages of CFEs for simulating micro-structured samples.

  11. Multiobjective constraints for climate model parameter choices: Pragmatic Pareto fronts in CESM1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langenbrunner, B.; Neelin, J. D.

    2017-09-01

    Global climate models (GCMs) are examples of high-dimensional input-output systems, where model output is a function of many variables, and an update in model physics commonly improves performance in one objective function (i.e., measure of model performance) at the expense of degrading another. Here concepts from multiobjective optimization in the engineering literature are used to investigate parameter sensitivity and optimization in the face of such trade-offs. A metamodeling technique called cut high-dimensional model representation (cut-HDMR) is leveraged in the context of multiobjective optimization to improve GCM simulation of the tropical Pacific climate, focusing on seasonal precipitation, column water vapor, and skin temperature. An evolutionary algorithm is used to solve for Pareto fronts, which are surfaces in objective function space along which trade-offs in GCM performance occur. This approach allows the modeler to visualize trade-offs quickly and identify the physics at play. In some cases, Pareto fronts are small, implying that trade-offs are minimal, optimal parameter value choices are more straightforward, and the GCM is well-functioning. In all cases considered here, the control run was found not to be Pareto-optimal (i.e., not on the front), highlighting an opportunity for model improvement through objectively informed parameter selection. Taylor diagrams illustrate that these improvements occur primarily in field magnitude, not spatial correlation, and they show that specific parameter updates can improve fields fundamental to tropical moist processes—namely precipitation and skin temperature—without significantly impacting others. These results provide an example of how basic elements of multiobjective optimization can facilitate pragmatic GCM tuning processes.

  12. A system model for water management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schenk, Colin; Roquier, Bastien; Soutter, Marc; Mermoud, André

    2009-03-01

    Although generally accepted as a necessary step to improve water management and planning, integrated water resources management (IWRM) methodology does not provide a clear definition of what should be integrated. The various water-related issues that IWRM might encompass are well documented in the literature, but they are generally addressed separately. Therefore, water management lacks a holistic, systems-based description, with a special emphasis on the interrelations between issues. This article presents such a system model for water management, including a graphical representation and textual descriptions of the various water issues, their components, and their interactions. This model is seen as an aide-memoire and a generic reference, providing background knowledge helping to elicit actual system definitions, in possible combination with other participatory systems approaches. The applicability of the model is demonstrated through its application to two test case studies.

  13. A Comprehensive Review on Water Quality Parameters Estimation Using Remote Sensing Techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gholizadeh, Mohammad Haji; Melesse, Assefa M; Reddi, Lakshmi

    2016-08-16

    Remotely sensed data can reinforce the abilities of water resources researchers and decision makers to monitor waterbodies more effectively. Remote sensing techniques have been widely used to measure the qualitative parameters of waterbodies (i.e., suspended sediments, colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM), chlorophyll-a, and pollutants). A large number of different sensors on board various satellites and other platforms, such as airplanes, are currently used to measure the amount of radiation at different wavelengths reflected from the water's surface. In this review paper, various properties (spectral, spatial and temporal, etc.) of the more commonly employed spaceborne and airborne sensors are tabulated to be used as a sensor selection guide. Furthermore, this paper investigates the commonly used approaches and sensors employed in evaluating and quantifying the eleven water quality parameters. The parameters include: chlorophyll-a (chl-a), colored dissolved organic matters (CDOM), Secchi disk depth (SDD), turbidity, total suspended sediments (TSS), water temperature (WT), total phosphorus (TP), sea surface salinity (SSS), dissolved oxygen (DO), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and chemical oxygen demand (COD).

  14. Status Of Physico-Chemical Parameter Of Ground Water Of Gorakhpur City U.P. India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priyanka Chaudhary

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The ground water is most prime water which has multipurpose use ranging from drinking to industrial and agricultural uses. The continuously increase in the level of pollution of water is a serious problem. The city of Gorakhpur is not untouched with this serious issue .The pollution level of the major water sources in and around the city is increase rapidly. The main objective of the present study is to study the variation of ground water quality in Gorakhpur district by collecting 20 samples of water from hand pump from 20 locations well distributed with in Gorakhpur district were analyzed for different parameters such as pH electric conductivity chloride total free chlorine hardness fluoride nitrate iron Turbidity potassium. Groundwater is polluted from seepage pits refuse dumps septic tanks barnyards manures transport accident and different pollutant. Important sources of ground water pollution are sewage is dumped in shallow soak pits. It gives rise to cholera hepatitis dysenteries etc. especially in areas with high water table.

  15. A statistical bias correction for climate model data: parameter sensitivity analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piani, C.; Coppola, E.; Mariotti, L.; Haerter, J.; Hagemann, S.

    2009-04-01

    Water management adaptation strategies depend crucially on high quality projections of the hydrological cycle in view of anthropogenic climate change. The goodness of hydrological cycle projections depends, in turn, on the successful coupling of hydrological models to global (GCMs) or regional climate models (RCMs). It is well known within the climate modelling community that hydrological forcing output from climate models, in particular precipitation, is partially affected by large bias. The bias affects all aspects of the statistics, that is the mean, standard deviation (variability), skewness (drizzle versus intense events, dry days) etc. The state-of-the-art approach to bias correction is based on histogram equalization techniques. Such techniques intrinsically correct all moments of the statistical intensity distribution. However these methods are applicable to hydrological projections to the extent that the correction itself is robust, that is, defined by few parameters that are well const