WorldWideScience

Sample records for model parameters vary

  1. Modelling tourists arrival using time varying parameter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suciptawati, P.; Sukarsa, K. G.; Kencana, Eka N.

    2017-06-01

    The importance of tourism and its related sectors to support economic development and poverty reduction in many countries increase researchers’ attentions to study and model tourists’ arrival. This work is aimed to demonstrate time varying parameter (TVP) technique to model the arrival of Korean’s tourists to Bali. The number of Korean tourists whom visiting Bali for period January 2010 to December 2015 were used to model the number of Korean’s tourists to Bali (KOR) as dependent variable. The predictors are the exchange rate of Won to IDR (WON), the inflation rate in Korea (INFKR), and the inflation rate in Indonesia (INFID). Observing tourists visit to Bali tend to fluctuate by their nationality, then the model was built by applying TVP and its parameters were approximated using Kalman Filter algorithm. The results showed all of predictor variables (WON, INFKR, INFID) significantly affect KOR. For in-sample and out-of-sample forecast with ARIMA’s forecasted values for the predictors, TVP model gave mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) as much as 11.24 percent and 12.86 percent, respectively.

  2. Edge Modeling by Two Blur Parameters in Varying Contrasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Suyoung

    2018-06-01

    This paper presents a method of modeling edge profiles with two blur parameters, and estimating and predicting those edge parameters with varying brightness combinations and camera-to-object distances (COD). First, the validity of the edge model is proven mathematically. Then, it is proven experimentally with edges from a set of images captured for specifically designed target sheets and with edges from natural images. Estimation of the two blur parameters for each observed edge profile is performed with a brute-force method to find parameters that produce global minimum errors. Then, using the estimated blur parameters, actual blur parameters of edges with arbitrary brightness combinations are predicted using a surface interpolation method (i.e., kriging). The predicted surfaces show that the two blur parameters of the proposed edge model depend on both dark-side edge brightness and light-side edge brightness following a certain global trend. This is similar across varying CODs. The proposed edge model is compared with a one-blur parameter edge model using experiments of the root mean squared error for fitting the edge models to each observed edge profile. The comparison results suggest that the proposed edge model has superiority over the one-blur parameter edge model in most cases where edges have varying brightness combinations.

  3. Varying parameter models to accommodate dynamic promotion effects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Foekens, E.W.; Leeflang, P.S.H.; Wittink, D.R.

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to examine the dynamic effects of sales promotions. We create dynamic brand sales models (for weekly store-level scanner data) by relating store intercepts and a brand's own price elasticity to a measure of the cumulated previous price discounts - amount and time - for

  4. An improved robust model predictive control for linear parameter-varying input-output models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abbas, H.S.; Hanema, J.; Tóth, R.; Mohammadpour, J.; Meskin, N.

    2018-01-01

    This paper describes a new robust model predictive control (MPC) scheme to control the discrete-time linear parameter-varying input-output models subject to input and output constraints. Closed-loop asymptotic stability is guaranteed by including a quadratic terminal cost and an ellipsoidal terminal

  5. Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: the importance of model structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathiraja, Sahani; Anghileri, Daniela; Burlando, Paolo; Sharma, Ashish; Marshall, Lucy; Moradkhani, Hamid

    2018-05-01

    Rapid population and economic growth in Southeast Asia has been accompanied by extensive land use change with consequent impacts on catchment hydrology. Modeling methodologies capable of handling changing land use conditions are therefore becoming ever more important and are receiving increasing attention from hydrologists. A recently developed data-assimilation-based framework that allows model parameters to vary through time in response to signals of change in observations is considered for a medium-sized catchment (2880 km2) in northern Vietnam experiencing substantial but gradual land cover change. We investigate the efficacy of the method as well as the importance of the chosen model structure in ensuring the success of a time-varying parameter method. The method was used with two lumped daily conceptual models (HBV and HyMOD) that gave good-quality streamflow predictions during pre-change conditions. Although both time-varying parameter models gave improved streamflow predictions under changed conditions compared to the time-invariant parameter model, persistent biases for low flows were apparent in the HyMOD case. It was found that HyMOD was not suited to representing the modified baseflow conditions, resulting in extreme and unrealistic time-varying parameter estimates. This work shows that the chosen model can be critical for ensuring the time-varying parameter framework successfully models streamflow under changing land cover conditions. It can also be used to determine whether land cover changes (and not just meteorological factors) contribute to the observed hydrologic changes in retrospective studies where the lack of a paired control catchment precludes such an assessment.

  6. Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: the importance of model structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Pathiraja

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Rapid population and economic growth in Southeast Asia has been accompanied by extensive land use change with consequent impacts on catchment hydrology. Modeling methodologies capable of handling changing land use conditions are therefore becoming ever more important and are receiving increasing attention from hydrologists. A recently developed data-assimilation-based framework that allows model parameters to vary through time in response to signals of change in observations is considered for a medium-sized catchment (2880 km2 in northern Vietnam experiencing substantial but gradual land cover change. We investigate the efficacy of the method as well as the importance of the chosen model structure in ensuring the success of a time-varying parameter method. The method was used with two lumped daily conceptual models (HBV and HyMOD that gave good-quality streamflow predictions during pre-change conditions. Although both time-varying parameter models gave improved streamflow predictions under changed conditions compared to the time-invariant parameter model, persistent biases for low flows were apparent in the HyMOD case. It was found that HyMOD was not suited to representing the modified baseflow conditions, resulting in extreme and unrealistic time-varying parameter estimates. This work shows that the chosen model can be critical for ensuring the time-varying parameter framework successfully models streamflow under changing land cover conditions. It can also be used to determine whether land cover changes (and not just meteorological factors contribute to the observed hydrologic changes in retrospective studies where the lack of a paired control catchment precludes such an assessment.

  7. varying elastic parameters distributions

    KAUST Repository

    Moussawi, Ali

    2014-12-01

    The experimental identication of mechanical properties is crucial in mechanics for understanding material behavior and for the development of numerical models. Classical identi cation procedures employ standard shaped specimens, assume that the mechanical elds in the object are homogeneous, and recover global properties. Thus, multiple tests are required for full characterization of a heterogeneous object, leading to a time consuming and costly process. The development of non-contact, full- eld measurement techniques from which complex kinematic elds can be recorded has opened the door to a new way of thinking. From the identi cation point of view, suitable methods can be used to process these complex kinematic elds in order to recover multiple spatially varying parameters through one test or a few tests. The requirement is the development of identi cation techniques that can process these complex experimental data. This thesis introduces a novel identi cation technique called the constitutive compatibility method. The key idea is to de ne stresses as compatible with the observed kinematic eld through the chosen class of constitutive equation, making possible the uncoupling of the identi cation of stress from the identi cation of the material parameters. This uncoupling leads to parametrized solutions in cases where 5 the solution is non-unique (due to unknown traction boundary conditions) as demonstrated on 2D numerical examples. First the theory is outlined and the method is demonstrated in 2D applications. Second, the method is implemented within a domain decomposition framework in order to reduce the cost for processing very large problems. Finally, it is extended to 3D numerical examples. Promising results are shown for 2D and 3D problems.

  8. Long memory of financial time series and hidden Markov models with time-varying parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nystrup, Peter; Madsen, Henrik; Lindström, Erik

    Hidden Markov models are often used to capture stylized facts of daily returns and to infer the hidden state of financial markets. Previous studies have found that the estimated models change over time, but the implications of the time-varying behavior for the ability to reproduce the stylized...... facts have not been thoroughly examined. This paper presents an adaptive estimation approach that allows for the parameters of the estimated models to be time-varying. It is shown that a two-state Gaussian hidden Markov model with time-varying parameters is able to reproduce the long memory of squared...... daily returns that was previously believed to be the most difficult fact to reproduce with a hidden Markov model. Capturing the time-varying behavior of the parameters also leads to improved one-step predictions....

  9. Long Memory of Financial Time Series and Hidden Markov Models with Time-Varying Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nystrup, Peter; Madsen, Henrik; Lindström, Erik

    2016-01-01

    Hidden Markov models are often used to model daily returns and to infer the hidden state of financial markets. Previous studies have found that the estimated models change over time, but the implications of the time-varying behavior have not been thoroughly examined. This paper presents an adaptive...... to reproduce with a hidden Markov model. Capturing the time-varying behavior of the parameters also leads to improved one-step density forecasts. Finally, it is shown that the forecasting performance of the estimated models can be further improved using local smoothing to forecast the parameter variations....

  10. Identification of Affine Linear Parameter Varying Models for Adaptive Interventions in Fibromyalgia Treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dos Santos, P Lopes; Deshpande, Sunil; Rivera, Daniel E; Azevedo-Perdicoúlis, T-P; Ramos, J A; Younger, Jarred

    2013-12-31

    There is good evidence that naltrexone, an opioid antagonist, has a strong neuroprotective role and may be a potential drug for the treatment of fibromyalgia. In previous work, some of the authors used experimental clinical data to identify input-output linear time invariant models that were used to extract useful information about the effect of this drug on fibromyalgia symptoms. Additional factors such as anxiety, stress, mood, and headache, were considered as additive disturbances. However, it seems reasonable to think that these factors do not affect the drug actuation, but only the way in which a participant perceives how the drug actuates on herself. Under this hypothesis the linear time invariant models can be replaced by State-Space Affine Linear Parameter Varying models where the disturbances are seen as a scheduling signal signal only acting at the parameters of the output equation. In this paper a new algorithm for identifying such a model is proposed. This algorithm minimizes a quadratic criterion of the output error. Since the output error is a linear function of some parameters, the Affine Linear Parameter Varying system identification is formulated as a separable nonlinear least squares problem. Likewise other identification algorithms using gradient optimization methods several parameter derivatives are dynamical systems that must be simulated. In order to increase time efficiency a canonical parametrization that minimizes the number of systems to be simulated is chosen. The effectiveness of the algorithm is assessed in a case study where an Affine Parameter Varying Model is identified from the experimental data used in the previous study and compared with the time-invariant model.

  11. PERAMALAN JUMLAH KUNJUNGAN WISATAWAN AUSTRALIA YANG BERKUNJUNG KE BALI MENGGUNAKAN MODEL TIME VARYING PARAMETER (TVP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I PUTU GEDE DIAN GERRY SUWEDAYANA

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this research is to forecast the number of Australian tourists arrival to Bali using Time Varying Parameter (TVP model based on inflation of Indonesia and exchange rate AUD to IDR from January 2010 – December 2015 as explanatory variables. TVP model is specified in a state space model and estimated by Kalman filter algorithm. The result shows that the TVP model can be used to forecast the number of Australian tourists arrival to Bali because it satisfied the assumption that the residuals are distributed normally and the residuals in the measurement and transition equations are not correlated. The estimated TVP model is . This model has a value of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE is equal to dan root mean square percentage error (RMSPE is equal to . The number of Australian tourists arrival to Bali for the next five periods is predicted: ; ; ; ; and (January - May 2016.

  12. Nonlinear Parameter-Varying AeroServoElastic Reduced Order Model for Aerostructural Sensing and Control, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The overall goal of the project is to develop reliable reduced order modeling technologies to automatically generate nonlinear, parameter-varying (PV),...

  13. Linear parameter-varying modeling and control of the steam temperature in a Canadian SCWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, Peiwei, E-mail: sunpeiwei@mail.xjtu.edu.cn; Zhang, Jianmin; Su, Guanghui

    2017-03-15

    Highlights: • Nonlinearity of Canadian SCWR is analyzed based on step responses and Nyquist plots. • LPV model is derived through Jacobian linearization and curve fitting. • An output feedback H{sub ∞} controller is synthesized for the steam temperature. • The control performance is evaluated by step disturbances and wide range operation. • The controller can stabilize the system and reject the reactor power disturbance. - Abstract: The Canadian direct-cycle Supercritical Water-cooled Reactor (SCWR) is a pressure-tube type SCWR under development in Canada. The dynamics of the steam temperature have a high degree of nonlinearity and are highly sensitive to reactor power disturbances. Traditional gain scheduling control cannot theoretically guarantee stability for all operating regions. The control performance can also be deteriorated when the controllers are switched. In this paper, a linear parameter-varying (LPV) strategy is proposed to solve such problems. Jacobian linearization and curve fitting are applied to derive the LPV model, which is verified using a nonlinear dynamic model and determined to be sufficiently accurate for control studies. An output feedback H{sub ∞} controller is synthesized to stabilize the steam temperature system and reject reactor power disturbances. The LPV steam temperature controller is implemented using a nonlinear dynamic model, and step changes in the setpoints and typical load patterns are carried out in the testing process. It is demonstrated through numerical simulation that the LPV controller not only stabilizes the steam temperature under different disturbances but also efficiently rejects reactor power disturbances and suppresses the steam temperature variation at different power levels. The LPV approach is effective in solving control problems of the steam temperature in the Canadian SCWR.

  14. Nonlinear Parameter-Varying AeroServoElastic Reduced Order Model for Aerostructural Sensing and Control, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The overall goal of the project is to develop reliable reduced order modeling technologies to automatically generate parameter-varying (PV), aeroservoelastic (ASE)...

  15. Comparison of model microbial allocation parameters in soils of varying texture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagerty, S. B.; Slessarev, E.; Schimel, J.

    2017-12-01

    The soil microbial community decomposes the majority of carbon (C) inputs to the soil. However, not all of this C is respired—rather, a substantial portion of the carbon processed by microbes may remain stored in the soil. The balance between C storage and respiration is controlled by microbial turnover rates and C allocation strategies. These microbial community properties may depend on soil texture, which has the potential to influence both the nature and the fate of microbial necromass and extracellular products. To evaluate the role of texture on microbial turnover and C allocation, we sampled four soils from the University of California's Hastings Reserve that varied in texture (one silt loam, two sandy loam, and on clay soil), but support similar grassland plant communities. We added 14C- glucose to the soil and measured the concentration of the label in the carbon dioxide (CO2), microbial biomass, and extractable C pools over 7 weeks. The labeled biomass turned over the slowest in the clay soil; the concentration of labeled biomass was more than 1.5 times the concentration of the other soils after 8 weeks. The clay soil also had the lowest mineralization rate of the label, and mineralization slowed after two weeks. In contrast, in the sandier soils mineralization rates were higher and did not plateau until 5 weeks into the incubation period. We fit the 14C data to a microbial allocation model and estimated microbial parameters; assimilation efficiency, exudation, and biomass specific respiration and turnover for each soil. We compare these parameters across the soil texture gradient to assess the extent to which models may need to account for variability in microbial C allocation across soils of different texture. Our results suggest that microbial C turns over more slowly in high-clay soils than in sandy soils, and that C lost from microbial biomass is retained at higher rates in high-clay soils. Accounting for these differences in microbial allocation

  16. Improvement of and Parameter Identification for the Bimodal Time-Varying Modified Kanai-Tajimi Power Spectral Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiguo Chen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the Kanai-Tajimi power spectrum filtering method proposed by Du Xiuli et al., a genetic algorithm and a quadratic optimization identification technique are employed to improve the bimodal time-varying modified Kanai-Tajimi power spectral model and the parameter identification method proposed by Vlachos et al. Additionally, a method for modeling time-varying power spectrum parameters for ground motion is proposed. The 8244 Orion and Chi-Chi earthquake accelerograms are selected as examples for time-varying power spectral model parameter identification and ground motion simulations to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the improved bimodal time-varying modified Kanai-Tajimi power spectral model. The results of this study provide important references for designing ground motion inputs for seismic analyses of major engineering structures.

  17. Artificial neural network modeling of DDGS flowability with varying process and storage parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neural Network (NN) modeling techniques were used to predict flowability behavior in distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) prepared with varying CDS (10, 15, and 20%, wb), drying temperature (100, 200, and 300°C), cooling temperature (-12, 0, and 35°C) and cooling time (0 and 1 month) levels....

  18. Analyzing the term structure of interest rates using the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model with time-varying parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koopman, S.J.; Mallee, M.I.P.; van der Wel, M.

    2010-01-01

    In this article we introduce time-varying parameters in the dynamic Nelson-Siegel yield curve model for the simultaneous analysis and forecasting of interest rates of different maturities. The Nelson-Siegel model has been recently reformulated as a dynamic factor model with vector autoregressive

  19. ESTIMATION OF CONSTANT AND TIME-VARYING DYNAMIC PARAMETERS OF HIV INFECTION IN A NONLINEAR DIFFERENTIAL EQUATION MODEL.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Hua; Miao, Hongyu; Wu, Hulin

    2010-03-01

    Modeling viral dynamics in HIV/AIDS studies has resulted in deep understanding of pathogenesis of HIV infection from which novel antiviral treatment guidance and strategies have been derived. Viral dynamics models based on nonlinear differential equations have been proposed and well developed over the past few decades. However, it is quite challenging to use experimental or clinical data to estimate the unknown parameters (both constant and time-varying parameters) in complex nonlinear differential equation models. Therefore, investigators usually fix some parameter values, from the literature or by experience, to obtain only parameter estimates of interest from clinical or experimental data. However, when such prior information is not available, it is desirable to determine all the parameter estimates from data. In this paper, we intend to combine the newly developed approaches, a multi-stage smoothing-based (MSSB) method and the spline-enhanced nonlinear least squares (SNLS) approach, to estimate all HIV viral dynamic parameters in a nonlinear differential equation model. In particular, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to propose a comparatively thorough procedure, accounting for both efficiency and accuracy, to rigorously estimate all key kinetic parameters in a nonlinear differential equation model of HIV dynamics from clinical data. These parameters include the proliferation rate and death rate of uninfected HIV-targeted cells, the average number of virions produced by an infected cell, and the infection rate which is related to the antiviral treatment effect and is time-varying. To validate the estimation methods, we verified the identifiability of the HIV viral dynamic model and performed simulation studies. We applied the proposed techniques to estimate the key HIV viral dynamic parameters for two individual AIDS patients treated with antiretroviral therapies. We demonstrate that HIV viral dynamics can be well characterized and

  20. The Impact of Varied Discrimination Parameters on Mixed-Format Item Response Theory Model Selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whittaker, Tiffany A.; Chang, Wanchen; Dodd, Barbara G.

    2013-01-01

    Whittaker, Chang, and Dodd compared the performance of model selection criteria when selecting among mixed-format IRT models and found that the criteria did not perform adequately when selecting the more parameterized models. It was suggested by M. S. Johnson that the problems when selecting the more parameterized models may be because of the low…

  1. Time-Varying FOPDT Modeling and On-line Parameter Identification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yang, Zhenyu; Sun, Zhen

    2013-01-01

    on the Mixed-Integer-Nonlinear Programming, Least-Mean-Square and sliding window techniques. The proposed approaches can simultaneously estimate the time-dependent system parameters, as well as the unknown disturbance input if it is the case, in an on-line manner. The proposed concepts and algorithms...

  2. Early marketing matters : A time-varying parameter approach to persistence modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Osinga, E.C.; Leeflang, P.S.H.; Wieringa, J.E.

    Are persistent marketing effects most likely to appear right after the introduction of a product? The authors give an affirmative answer to this question by developing a model that explicitly reports how persistent and transient marketing effects evolve over time. The proposed model provides

  3. Linear Parameter Varying Control of Induction Motors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trangbæk, Klaus

    The subject of this thesis is the development of linear parameter varying (LPV) controllers and observers for control of induction motors. The induction motor is one of the most common machines in industrial applications. Being a highly nonlinear system, it poses challenging control problems...... for high performance applications. This thesis demonstrates how LPV control theory provides a systematic way to achieve good performance for these problems. The main contributions of this thesis are the application of the LPV control theory to induction motor control as well as various contributions...

  4. Output-only modal parameter estimator of linear time-varying structural systems based on vector TAR model and least squares support vector machine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Si-Da; Ma, Yuan-Chen; Liu, Li; Kang, Jie; Ma, Zhi-Sai; Yu, Lei

    2018-01-01

    Identification of time-varying modal parameters contributes to the structural health monitoring, fault detection, vibration control, etc. of the operational time-varying structural systems. However, it is a challenging task because there is not more information for the identification of the time-varying systems than that of the time-invariant systems. This paper presents a vector time-dependent autoregressive model and least squares support vector machine based modal parameter estimator for linear time-varying structural systems in case of output-only measurements. To reduce the computational cost, a Wendland's compactly supported radial basis function is used to achieve the sparsity of the Gram matrix. A Gamma-test-based non-parametric approach of selecting the regularization factor is adapted for the proposed estimator to replace the time-consuming n-fold cross validation. A series of numerical examples have illustrated the advantages of the proposed modal parameter estimator on the suppression of the overestimate and the short data. A laboratory experiment has further validated the proposed estimator.

  5. Using Kalman filtering to predict time-varying parameters in a model predicting baroreflex regulation during head-up tilt

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Matzuka, Brett; Mehlsen, Jesper; Tran, Hien

    2015-01-01

    are sparse, typical studies only include measurements of heart rate and blood pressure, as a result it is difficult to determine what mechanisms that are impaired. It is known, that blood pressure regulation is mediated by changes in heart rate, vascular resistance, cardiac contractility and a number...... of other factors. Given that numerous factors contribute to changing these quantities it is difficult to devise a physiological model describing how they change in time. One way is to build a model that allows these controlled quantities to change and to compare dynamics between subject groups. To do so...

  6. In-Sample Confidence Bands and Out-of-Sample Forecast Bands for Time-Varying Parameters in Observation Driven Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blasques, F.; Koopman, S.J.; Lasak, K.A.; Lucas, A.

    2016-01-01

    We study the performances of alternative methods for calculating in-sample confidence and out-of-sample forecast bands for time-varying parameters. The in-sample bands reflect parameter uncertainty, while the out-of-sample bands reflect not only parameter uncertainty, but also innovation

  7. Tracking time-varying parameters with local regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joensen, Alfred Karsten; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben Skov

    2000-01-01

    This paper shows that the recursive least-squares (RLS) algorithm with forgetting factor is a special case of a varying-coe\\$cient model, and a model which can easily be estimated via simple local regression. This observation allows us to formulate a new method which retains the RLS algorithm, bu......, but extends the algorithm by including polynomial approximations. Simulation results are provided, which indicates that this new method is superior to the classical RLS method, if the parameter variations are smooth....

  8. Structured Linear Parameter Varying Control of Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Adegas, Fabiano Daher; Sloth, Christoffer; Stoustrup, Jakob

    2012-01-01

    High performance and reliability are required for wind turbines to be competitive within the energy market. To capture their nonlinear behavior, wind turbines are often modeled using parameter-varying models. In this chapter, a framework for modelling and controller design of wind turbines is pre...... in the controller synthesis are solved by an iterative LMI-based algorithm. The resulting controllers can also be easily implemented in practice due to low data storage and simple math operations. The performance of the LPV controllers is assessed by nonlinear simulations results....

  9. Control of Linear Parameter Varying Systems with Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Mohammadpour, Javad

    2012-01-01

    Control of Linear Parameter Varying Systems with Applications compiles state-of-the-art contributions on novel analytical and computational methods to address system modeling and identification, complexity reduction, performance analysis and control design for time-varying and nonlinear systems in the LPV framework. The book has an interdisciplinary character by emphasizing techniques that can be commonly applied in various engineering fields. It also includes a rich collection of illustrative applications in diverse domains to substantiate the effectiveness of the design methodologies and provide pointers to open research directions. The book is divided into three parts. The first part collects chapters of a more tutorial character on the background of LPV systems modeling and control. The second part gathers chapters devoted to the theoretical advancement of LPV analysis and synthesis methods to cope with the design constraints such as uncertainties and time delay. The third part of the volume showcases con...

  10. Power System Event Ranking Using a New Linear Parameter-Varying Modeling with a Wide Area Measurement System-Based Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Bagher Abolhasani Jabali

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Detecting critical power system events for Dynamic Security Assessment (DSA is required for reliability improvement. The approach proposed in this paper investigates the effects of events on dynamic behavior during nonlinear system response while common approaches use steady-state conditions after events. This paper presents some new and enhanced indices for event ranking based on time-domain simulation and polytopic linear parameter-varying (LPV modeling of a power system. In the proposed approach, a polytopic LPV representation is generated via linearization about some points of the nonlinear dynamic behavior of power system using wide-area measurement system (WAMS concepts and then event ranking is done based on the frequency response of the system models on the vertices. Therefore, the nonlinear behaviors of the system in the time of fault occurrence are considered for events ranking. The proposed algorithm is applied to a power system using nonlinear simulation. The comparison of the results especially in different fault conditions shows the advantages of the proposed approach and indices.

  11. Performance of a solar chimney by varying design parameters

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Kumirai, T

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available the design of solar chimneys to ensure optimal performance. The purpose of this chapter is to discuss the performance of an example solar chimney by varying the design parameters and examining their effects on the interior ventilation performance... chimney by varying design parameters Tichaona Kumirai, Researcher, Built Environment CSIR Jan-Hendrik Grobler, DPSS CSIR Dr D.C.U. Conradie, Senior researcher, Built Environment CSIR 1 Introduction Trombe walls and solar chimneys are not widely...

  12. Robust and Fault-Tolerant Linear Parameter-Varying Control of Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sloth, Christoffer; Esbensen, Thomas; Stoustrup, Jakob

    2011-01-01

    High performance and reliability are required for wind turbines to be competitive within the energy market. To capture their nonlinear behavior, wind turbines are often modeled using parameter-varying models. In this paper we design and compare multiple linear parameter-varying (LPV) controllers,...

  13. Observer-based linear parameter varying H∞ tracking control for hypersonic vehicles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yiqing Huang

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This article aims to develop observer-based linear parameter varying output feedback H∞ tracking controller for hypersonic vehicles. Due to the complexity of an original nonlinear model of the hypersonic vehicle dynamics, a slow–fast loop linear parameter varying polytopic model is introduced for system stability analysis and controller design. Then, a state observer is developed by linear parameter varying technique in order to estimate the unmeasured attitude angular for slow loop system. Also, based on the designed linear parameter varying state observer, a kind of attitude tracking controller is presented to reduce tracking errors for all bounded reference attitude angular inputs. The closed-loop linear parameter varying system is proved to be quadratically stable by Lypapunov function technique. Finally, simulation results show that the developed linear parameter varying H∞ controller has good tracking capability for reference commands.

  14. Linear parameter varying representations for nonlinear control design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Lance Huntington

    Linear parameter varying (LPV) systems are investigated as a framework for gain-scheduled control design and optimal hybrid control. An LPV system is defined as a linear system whose dynamics depend upon an a priori unknown but measurable exogenous parameter. A gain-scheduled autopilot design is presented for a bank-to-turn (BTT) missile. The method is novel in that the gain-scheduled design does not involve linearizations about operating points. Instead, the missile dynamics are brought to LPV form via a state transformation. This idea is applied to the design of a coupled longitudinal/lateral BTT missile autopilot. The pitch and yaw/roll dynamics are separately transformed to LPV form, where the cross axis states are treated as "exogenous" parameters. These are actually endogenous variables, so such a plant is called "quasi-LPV." Once in quasi-LPV form, a family of robust controllers using mu synthesis is designed for both the pitch and yaw/roll channels, using angle-of-attack and roll rate as the scheduling variables. The closed-loop time response is simulated using the original nonlinear model and also using perturbed aerodynamic coefficients. Modeling and control of engine idle speed is investigated using LPV methods. It is shown how generalized discrete nonlinear systems may be transformed into quasi-LPV form. A discrete nonlinear engine model is developed and expressed in quasi-LPV form with engine speed as the scheduling variable. An example control design is presented using linear quadratic methods. Simulations are shown comparing the LPV based controller performance to that using PID control. LPV representations are also shown to provide a setting for hybrid systems. A hybrid system is characterized by control inputs consisting of both analog signals and discrete actions. A solution is derived for the optimal control of hybrid systems with generalized cost functions. This is shown to be computationally intensive, so a suboptimal strategy is proposed that

  15. Linear parameter-varying control for engineering applications

    CERN Document Server

    White, Andrew P; Choi, Jongeun

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this brief is to carefully illustrate a procedure of applying linear parameter-varying (LPV) control to a class of dynamic systems via a systematic synthesis of gain-scheduling controllers with guaranteed stability and performance. The existing LPV control theories rely on the use of either H-infinity or H2 norm to specify the performance of the LPV system.  The challenge that arises with LPV control for engineers is twofold. First, there is no systematic procedure for applying existing LPV control system theory to solve practical engineering problems from modeling to control design. Second, there exists no LPV control synthesis theory to design LPV controllers with hard constraints. For example, physical systems usually have hard constraints on their required performance outputs along with their sensors and actuators. Furthermore, the H-infinity and H2 performance criteria cannot provide hard constraints on system outputs. As a result, engineers in industry could find it difficult to utiliz...

  16. Constitutive Equation with Varying Parameters for Superplastic Flow Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Zhiping; Ren, Mingwen; Jia, Hongjie; Zhao, Po; Ma, Pinkui

    2014-03-01

    In this study, constitutive equations for superplastic materials with an extra large elongation were investigated through mechanical analysis. From the view of phenomenology, firstly, some traditional empirical constitutive relations were standardized by restricting some strain paths and parameter conditions, and the coefficients in these relations were strictly given new mechanical definitions. Subsequently, a new, general constitutive equation with varying parameters was theoretically deduced based on the general mechanical equation of state. The superplastic tension test data of Zn-5%Al alloy at 340 °C under strain rates, velocities, and loads were employed for building a new constitutive equation and examining its validity. Analysis results indicated that the constitutive equation with varying parameters could characterize superplastic flow behavior in practical superplastic forming with high prediction accuracy and without any restriction of strain path or deformation condition, showing good industrial or scientific interest. On the contrary, those empirical equations have low prediction capabilities due to constant parameters and poor applicability because of the limit of special strain path or parameter conditions based on strict phenomenology.

  17. Estimating varying coefficients for partial differential equation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xinyu; Cao, Jiguo; Carroll, Raymond J

    2017-09-01

    Partial differential equations (PDEs) are used to model complex dynamical systems in multiple dimensions, and their parameters often have important scientific interpretations. In some applications, PDE parameters are not constant but can change depending on the values of covariates, a feature that we call varying coefficients. We propose a parameter cascading method to estimate varying coefficients in PDE models from noisy data. Our estimates of the varying coefficients are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. The performance of our method is evaluated by a simulation study and by an empirical study estimating three varying coefficients in a PDE model arising from LIDAR data. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  18. Lumped-parameter models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, M.

    2006-12-15

    A lumped-parameter model represents the frequency dependent soil-structure interaction of a massless foundation placed on or embedded into an unbounded soil domain. In this technical report the steps of establishing a lumped-parameter model are presented. Following sections are included in this report: Static and dynamic formulation, Simple lumped-parameter models and Advanced lumped-parameter models. (au)

  19. Varying coefficients model with measurement error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Liang; Greene, Tom

    2008-06-01

    We propose a semiparametric partially varying coefficient model to study the relationship between serum creatinine concentration and the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) among kidney donors and patients with chronic kidney disease. A regression model is used to relate serum creatinine to GFR and demographic factors in which coefficient of GFR is expressed as a function of age to allow its effect to be age dependent. GFR measurements obtained from the clearance of a radioactively labeled isotope are assumed to be a surrogate for the true GFR, with the relationship between measured and true GFR expressed using an additive error model. We use locally corrected score equations to estimate parameters and coefficient functions, and propose an expected generalized cross-validation (EGCV) method to select the kernel bandwidth. The performance of the proposed methods, which avoid distributional assumptions on the true GFR and residuals, is investigated by simulation. Accounting for measurement error using the proposed model reduced apparent inconsistencies in the relationship between serum creatinine and GFR among different clinical data sets derived from kidney donor and chronic kidney disease source populations.

  20. Analysis and design of composite slab by varying different parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambe, Kedar; Siddh, Sharda

    2018-03-01

    Composite deck slabs are in demand because of its faster, lighter and economical construction work. Composite slab consists of cold formed deck profiled sheet and concrete either lightweight or normal. Investigation of shear behaviour of the composite slab is very complex. Shear bond strength depends on the various parameter such as a shape of sheeting, a thickness of the sheet, type of embossment and its frequency of use, shear stiffener or intermediate stiffener, type of load, an arrangement of load, length of shear span, the thickness of concrete and support friction etc. In present study finite element analysis is carried out with ABAQUS 6.13, a simply supported composite slab is considered for the investigation of the shear bond behaviour of the composite slab by considering variation in three different parameters, the shape of a sheet, thickness of sheet and shear span. Different shear spans of two different shape of cold formed deck profiled sheet i.e. with intermediate stiffeners and without intermediate stiffeners are considered with two different thicknesses (0.8 mm and 1.2 mm) for simulation. In present work, simulation of models has done for static loading with 20 mm mesh size is considered.

  1. Linear Parameter Varying Versus Linear Time Invariant Reduced Order Controller Design of Turboprop Aircraft Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Widowati

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The applicability of parameter varying reduced order controllers to aircraft model is proposed. The generalization of the balanced singular perturbation method of linear time invariant (LTI system is used to reduce the order of linear parameter varying (LPV system. Based on the reduced order model the low-order LPV controller is designed by using synthesis technique. The performance of the reduced order controller is examined by applying it to lateral-directional control of aircraft model having 20th order. Furthermore, the time responses of the closed loop system with reduced order LPV controllers and reduced order LTI controller is compared. From the simulation results, the 8th order LPV controller can maintain stability and to provide the same level of closed-loop systems performance as the full-order LPV controller. It is different with the reduced-order LTI controller that cannot maintain stability and performance for all allowable parameter trajectories.

  2. Conceptual Modeling of Time-Varying Information

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Heidi; Jensen, Christian S.

    2004-01-01

    A wide range of database applications manage information that varies over time. Many of the underlying database schemas of these were designed using the Entity-Relationship (ER) model. In the research community as well as in industry, it is common knowledge that the temporal aspects of the mini......-world are important, but difficult to capture using the ER model. Several enhancements to the ER model have been proposed in an attempt to support the modeling of temporal aspects of information. Common to the existing temporally extended ER models, few or no specific requirements to the models were given...

  3. Stability of neutrino parameters and self-complementarity relation with varying SUSY breaking scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, K. Sashikanta; Roy, Subhankar; Singh, N. Nimai

    2018-03-01

    The scale at which supersymmetry (SUSY) breaks (ms) is still unknown. The present article, following a top-down approach, endeavors to study the effect of varying ms on the radiative stability of the observational parameters associated with the neutrino mixing. These parameters get additional contributions in the minimal supersymmetric model (MSSM). A variation in ms will influence the bounds for which the Standard Model (SM) and MSSM work and hence, will account for the different radiative contributions received from both sectors, respectively, while running the renormalization group equations (RGE). The present work establishes the invariance of the self complementarity relation among the three mixing angles, θ13+θ12≈θ23 against the radiative evolution. A similar result concerning the mass ratio, m2:m1 is also found to be valid. In addition to varying ms, the work incorporates a range of different seesaw (SS) scales and tries to see how the latter affects the parameters.

  4. Effect of Varying Controller Parameters on the Performance of a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper presents the results of computer simulation studies designed to isolate the effects of the major parameters of a fuzzy logic controller namely the range of the universe of discourse, the extent of overlap of the fuzzy sets, the rules in the rule base and the modes of the output fuzzy sets on the performance of a fuzzy ...

  5. Nonlinear control of linear parameter varying systems with applications to hypersonic vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilcox, Zachary Donald

    The focus of this dissertation is to design a controller for linear parameter varying (LPV) systems, apply it specifically to air-breathing hypersonic vehicles, and examine the interplay between control performance and the structural dynamics design. Specifically a Lyapunov-based continuous robust controller is developed that yields exponential tracking of a reference model, despite the presence of bounded, nonvanishing disturbances. The hypersonic vehicle has time varying parameters, specifically temperature profiles, and its dynamics can be reduced to an LPV system with additive disturbances. Since the HSV can be modeled as an LPV system the proposed control design is directly applicable. The control performance is directly examined through simulations. A wide variety of applications exist that can be effectively modeled as LPV systems. In particular, flight systems have historically been modeled as LPV systems and associated control tools have been applied such as gain-scheduling, linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), linear fractional transformations (LFT), and mu-types. However, as the type of flight environments and trajectories become more demanding, the traditional LPV controllers may no longer be sufficient. In particular, hypersonic flight vehicles (HSVs) present an inherently difficult problem because of the nonlinear aerothermoelastic coupling effects in the dynamics. HSV flight conditions produce temperature variations that can alter both the structural dynamics and flight dynamics. Starting with the full nonlinear dynamics, the aerothermoelastic effects are modeled by a temperature dependent, parameter varying state-space representation with added disturbances. The model includes an uncertain parameter varying state matrix, an uncertain parameter varying non-square (column deficient) input matrix, and an additive bounded disturbance. In this dissertation, a robust dynamic controller is formulated for a uncertain and disturbed LPV system. The developed

  6. Adaptive control of chaotic systems with stochastic time varying unknown parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salarieh, Hassan [Center of Excellence in Design, Robotics and Automation, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, P.O. Box 11365-9567, Azadi Avenue, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)], E-mail: salarieh@mech.sharif.edu; Alasty, Aria [Center of Excellence in Design, Robotics and Automation, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, P.O. Box 11365-9567, Azadi Avenue, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)], E-mail: aalasti@sharif.edu

    2008-10-15

    In this paper based on the Lyapunov stability theorem, an adaptive control scheme is proposed for stabilizing the unstable periodic orbits (UPO) of chaotic systems. It is assumed that the chaotic system has some linearly dependent unknown parameters which are stochastically time varying. The stochastic parameters are modeled through the Weiner process derivative. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed technique it has been applied to the Lorenz, Chen and Rossler dynamical systems, as some case studies. Simulation results indicate that the proposed adaptive controller has a high performance in stabilizing the UPO of chaotic systems in noisy environment.

  7. Spatially varying dispersion to model breakthrough curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Guangquan

    2011-01-01

    Often the water flowing in a karst conduit is a combination of contaminated water entering at a sinkhole and cleaner water released from the limestone matrix. Transport processes in the conduit are controlled by advection, mixing (dilution and dispersion), and retention-release. In this article, a karst transport model considering advection, spatially varying dispersion, and dilution (from matrix seepage) is developed. Two approximate Green's functions are obtained using transformation of variables, respectively, for the initial-value problem and for the boundary-value problem. A numerical example illustrates that mixing associated with strong spatially varying conduit dispersion can cause strong skewness and long tailing in spring breakthrough curves. Comparison of the predicted breakthrough curve against that measured from a dye-tracing experiment between Ames Sink and Indian Spring, Northwest Florida, shows that the conduit dispersivity can be as large as 400 m. Such a large number is believed to imply strong solute interaction between the conduit and the matrix and/or multiple flow paths in a conduit network. It is concluded that Taylor dispersion is not dominant in transport in a karst conduit, and the complicated retention-release process between mobile- and immobile waters may be described by strong spatially varying conduit dispersion. Copyright © 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation © 2010 National Ground Water Association.

  8. A receding horizon scheme for discrete-time polytopic linear parameter varying systems in networked architectures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Franzè, Giuseppe; Lucia, Walter; Tedesco, Francesco

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a Model Predictive Control (MPC) strategy to address regulation problems for constrained polytopic Linear Parameter Varying (LPV) systems subject to input and state constraints in which both plant measurements and command signals in the loop are sent through communication channels subject to time-varying delays (Networked Control System (NCS)). The results here proposed represent a significant extension to the LPV framework of a recent Receding Horizon Control (RHC) scheme developed for the so-called robust case. By exploiting the parameter availability, the pre-computed sequences of one- step controllable sets inner approximations are less conservative than the robust counterpart. The resulting framework guarantees asymptotic stability and constraints fulfilment regardless of plant uncertainties and time-delay occurrences. Finally, experimental results on a laboratory two-tank test-bed show the effectiveness of the proposed approach

  9. On-Line Flutter Prediction Tool for Wind Tunnel Flutter Testing using Parameter Varying Estimation Methodology, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ZONA Technology, Inc. (ZONA) proposes to develop an on-line flutter prediction tool for wind tunnel model using the parameter varying estimation (PVE) technique to...

  10. Calculation of the separate parameters of a countercurrent centrifuge with an axially varying internal flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Migliavacca, S.C.P.

    1991-01-01

    A review of the isotope separation theory for the countercurrent gas centrifuge is presented. The diffusion-convection equation is solved according to the ONSAGER-COHEN solution for the constant internal flow and adapted to an axially varying countercurrent flow. Based on that theory, a numerical program is developed for the calculation of the isotopic compositions and the separative parameters of the centrifuge. The influence of the feed flow and the internal parameters. Like cut and countercurrent flow, on the separative parameters is then analysed for a model-centrifuge, which afterwards is optimized with respect to its separative power. Finally, a comparison between the present calculation procedure and some published results, provided by different theories, shows deviations lower then 20%. (author)

  11. Nonlinear systems time-varying parameter estimation: Application to induction motors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kenne, Godpromesse [Laboratoire d' Automatique et d' Informatique Appliquee (LAIA), Departement de Genie Electrique, IUT FOTSO Victor, Universite de Dschang, B.P. 134 Bandjoun (Cameroon); Ahmed-Ali, Tarek [Ecole Nationale Superieure des Ingenieurs des Etudes et Techniques d' Armement (ENSIETA), 2 Rue Francois Verny, 29806 Brest Cedex 9 (France); Lamnabhi-Lagarrigue, F. [Laboratoire des Signaux et Systemes (L2S), C.N.R.S-SUPELEC, Universite Paris XI, 3 Rue Joliot Curie, 91192 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Arzande, Amir [Departement Energie, Ecole Superieure d' Electricite-SUPELEC, 3 Rue Joliot Curie, 91192 Gif-sur-Yvette (France)

    2008-11-15

    In this paper, an algorithm for time-varying parameter estimation for a large class of nonlinear systems is presented. The proof of the convergence of the estimates to their true values is achieved using Lyapunov theories and does not require that the classical persistent excitation condition be satisfied by the input signal. Since the induction motor (IM) is widely used in several industrial sectors, the algorithm developed is potentially useful for adjusting the controller parameters of variable speed drives. The method proposed is simple and easily implementable in real-time. The application of this approach to on-line estimation of the rotor resistance of IM shows a rapidly converging estimate in spite of measurement noise, discretization effects, parameter uncertainties (e.g. inaccuracies on motor inductance values) and modeling inaccuracies. The robustness analysis for this IM application also revealed that the proposed scheme is insensitive to the stator resistance variations within a wide range. The merits of the proposed algorithm in the case of on-line time-varying rotor resistance estimation are demonstrated via experimental results in various operating conditions of the induction motor. The experimental results obtained demonstrate that the application of the proposed algorithm to update on-line the parameters of an adaptive controller (e.g. IM and synchronous machines adaptive control) can improve the efficiency of the industrial process. The other interesting features of the proposed method include fault detection/estimation and adaptive control of IM and synchronous machines. (author)

  12. Pattern formation in individual-based systems with time-varying parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashcroft, Peter; Galla, Tobias

    2013-12-01

    We study the patterns generated in finite-time sweeps across symmetry-breaking bifurcations in individual-based models. Similar to the well-known Kibble-Zurek scenario of defect formation, large-scale patterns are generated when model parameters are varied slowly, whereas fast sweeps produce a large number of small domains. The symmetry breaking is triggered by intrinsic noise, originating from the discrete dynamics at the microlevel. Based on a linear-noise approximation, we calculate the characteristic length scale of these patterns. We demonstrate the applicability of this approach in a simple model of opinion dynamics, a model in evolutionary game theory with a time-dependent fitness structure, and a model of cell differentiation. Our theoretical estimates are confirmed in simulations. In further numerical work, we observe a similar phenomenon when the symmetry-breaking bifurcation is triggered by population growth.

  13. Behavior of cosmological models with varying G

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barrow, J.D.; Parsons, P.

    1997-01-01

    We provide a detailed analysis of Friedmann-Robertson-Walker universes in a wide range of scalar-tensor theories of gravity. We apply solution-generating methods to three parametrized classes of scalar-tensor theory which lead naturally to general relativity in the weak-field limit. We restrict the parameters which specify these theories by the requirements imposed by the weak-field tests of gravitation theories in the solar system and by the requirement that viable cosmological solutions be obtained. We construct a range of exact solutions for open, closed, and flat isotropic universes containing matter with equation of state p≤(1)/(3)ρ and in vacuum. We study the range of early- and late-time behaviors displayed, examine when there is a open-quotes bounceclose quotes at early times, and expansion maxima in closed models. copyright 1997 The American Physical Society

  14. Penalized Nonlinear Least Squares Estimation of Time-Varying Parameters in Ordinary Differential Equations

    KAUST Repository

    Cao, Jiguo; Huang, Jianhua Z.; Wu, Hulin

    2012-01-01

    Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are widely used in biomedical research and other scientific areas to model complex dynamic systems. It is an important statistical problem to estimate parameters in ODEs from noisy observations. In this article we propose a method for estimating the time-varying coefficients in an ODE. Our method is a variation of the nonlinear least squares where penalized splines are used to model the functional parameters and the ODE solutions are approximated also using splines. We resort to the implicit function theorem to deal with the nonlinear least squares objective function that is only defined implicitly. The proposed penalized nonlinear least squares method is applied to estimate a HIV dynamic model from a real dataset. Monte Carlo simulations show that the new method can provide much more accurate estimates of functional parameters than the existing two-step local polynomial method which relies on estimation of the derivatives of the state function. Supplemental materials for the article are available online.

  15. A 3D domain decomposition approach for the identification of spatially varying elastic material parameters

    KAUST Repository

    Moussawi, Ali; Lubineau, Gilles; Xu, Jiangping; Pan, Bing

    2015-01-01

    Summary: The post-treatment of (3D) displacement fields for the identification of spatially varying elastic material parameters is a large inverse problem that remains out of reach for massive 3D structures. We explore here the potential

  16. Robust control design for active driver assistance systems a linear-parameter-varying approach

    CERN Document Server

    Gáspár, Péter; Bokor, József; Nemeth, Balazs

    2017-01-01

    This monograph focuses on control methods that influence vehicle dynamics to assist the driver in enhancing passenger comfort, road holding, efficiency and safety of transport, etc., while maintaining the driver’s ability to override that assistance. On individual-vehicle-component level the control problem is formulated and solved by a unified modelling and design method provided by the linear parameter varying (LPV) framework. The global behaviour desired is achieved by a judicious interplay between the individual components, guaranteed by an integrated control mechanism. The integrated control problem is also formalized and solved in the LPV framework. Most important among the ideas expounded in the book are: application of the LPV paradigm in the modelling and control design methodology; application of the robust LPV design as a unified framework for setting control tasks related to active driver assistance; formulation and solution proposals for the integrated vehicle control problem; proposal for a re...

  17. Forecast Accuracy and Economic Gains from Bayesian Model Averaging using Time Varying Weights

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.F. Hoogerheide (Lennart); R.H. Kleijn (Richard); H.K. van Dijk (Herman); M.J.C.M. Verbeek (Marno)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractSeveral Bayesian model combination schemes, including some novel approaches that simultaneously allow for parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and robust time varying model weights, are compared in terms of forecast accuracy and economic gains using financial and macroeconomic time

  18. Modeling information diffusion in time-varying community networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Xuelian; Zhao, Narisa

    2017-12-01

    Social networks are rarely static, and they typically have time-varying network topologies. A great number of studies have modeled temporal networks and explored social contagion processes within these models; however, few of these studies have considered community structure variations. In this paper, we present a study of how the time-varying property of a modular structure influences the information dissemination. First, we propose a continuous-time Markov model of information diffusion where two parameters, mobility rate and community attractiveness, are introduced to address the time-varying nature of the community structure. The basic reproduction number is derived, and the accuracy of this model is evaluated by comparing the simulation and theoretical results. Furthermore, numerical results illustrate that generally both the mobility rate and community attractiveness significantly promote the information diffusion process, especially in the initial outbreak stage. Moreover, the strength of this promotion effect is much stronger when the modularity is higher. Counterintuitively, it is found that when all communities have the same attractiveness, social mobility no longer accelerates the diffusion process. In addition, we show that the local spreading in the advantage group has been greatly enhanced due to the agglomeration effect caused by the social mobility and community attractiveness difference, which thus increases the global spreading.

  19. Partially linear varying coefficient models stratified by a functional covariate

    KAUST Repository

    Maity, Arnab; Huang, Jianhua Z.

    2012-01-01

    We consider the problem of estimation in semiparametric varying coefficient models where the covariate modifying the varying coefficients is functional and is modeled nonparametrically. We develop a kernel-based estimator of the nonparametric

  20. Online Support Vector Regression with Varying Parameters for Time-Dependent Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A.; Jeong, Myong K.; Badiru, Adedeji B.

    2011-01-01

    Support vector regression (SVR) is a machine learning technique that continues to receive interest in several domains including manufacturing, engineering, and medicine. In order to extend its application to problems in which datasets arrive constantly and in which batch processing of the datasets is infeasible or expensive, an accurate online support vector regression (AOSVR) technique was proposed. The AOSVR technique efficiently updates a trained SVR function whenever a sample is added to or removed from the training set without retraining the entire training data. However, the AOSVR technique assumes that the new samples and the training samples are of the same characteristics; hence, the same value of SVR parameters is used for training and prediction. This assumption is not applicable to data samples that are inherently noisy and non-stationary such as sensor data. As a result, we propose Accurate On-line Support Vector Regression with Varying Parameters (AOSVR-VP) that uses varying SVR parameters rather than fixed SVR parameters, and hence accounts for the variability that may exist in the samples. To accomplish this objective, we also propose a generalized weight function to automatically update the weights of SVR parameters in on-line monitoring applications. The proposed function allows for lower and upper bounds for SVR parameters. We tested our proposed approach and compared results with the conventional AOSVR approach using two benchmark time series data and sensor data from nuclear power plant. The results show that using varying SVR parameters is more applicable to time dependent data.

  1. Bianchi Type-V Bulk Viscous Cosmic String in f(R,T Gravity with Time Varying Deceleration Parameter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bïnaya K. Bishi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We study the Bianchi type-V string cosmological model with bulk viscosity in f(R,T theory of gravity by considering a special form and linearly varying deceleration parameter. This is an extension of the earlier work of Naidu et al., 2013, where they have constructed the model by considering a constant deceleration parameter. Here we find that the cosmic strings do not survive in both models. In addition we study some physical and kinematical properties of both models. We observe that in one of our models these properties are identical to the model obtained by Naidu et al., 2013, and in the other model the behavior of these parameters is different.

  2. Risk adjusted receding horizon control of constrained linear parameter varying systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sznaier, M.; Lagoa, C.; Stoorvogel, Antonie Arij; Li, X.

    2005-01-01

    In the past few years, control of Linear Parameter Varying Systems (LPV) has been the object of considerable attention, as a way of formalizing the intuitively appealing idea of gain scheduling control for nonlinear systems. However, currently available LPV techniques are both computationally

  3. Vector Autoregressions with Parsimoniously Time Varying Parameters and an Application to Monetary Policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Callot, Laurent; Kristensen, Johannes Tang

    the monetary policy response to inflation and business cycle fluctuations in the US by estimating a parsimoniously time varying parameter Taylor rule.We document substantial changes in the policy response of the Fed in the 1970s and 1980s, and since 2007, but also document the stability of this response...

  4. Scalable Video Streaming Adaptive to Time-Varying IEEE 802.11 MAC Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Kyung-Jun; Suh, Doug-Young; Park, Gwang-Hoon; Huh, Jae-Doo

    This letter proposes a QoS control method for video streaming service over wireless networks. Based on statistical analysis, the time-varying MAC parameters highly related to channel condition are selected to predict available bitrate. Adaptive bitrate control of scalably-encoded video guarantees continuity in streaming service even if the channel condition changes abruptly.

  5. Robust control and linear parameter varying approaches application to vehicle dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Gaspar, Peter; Bokor, József

    2013-01-01

    Vehicles are complex systems (non-linear, multi-variable) where the abundance of embedded controllers should ensure better security. This book aims at emphasizing the interest and potential of Linear Parameter Varying methods within the framework of vehicle dynamics, e.g.   ·          proposed control-oriented model, complex enough to handle some system non linearities but still simple for control or observer design,   ·          take into account the adaptability of the vehicle's response to driving situations, to the driver request and/or to the road sollicitations,   ·          manage interactions between various actuators to optimize the dynamic behavior of vehicles.   This book results from the 32th International Summer School in Automatic that held in Grenoble, France, in September 2011, where recent methods (based on robust control and LPV technics), then applied to the control of vehicle dynamics, have been presented. After some theoretical background and a view on so...

  6. Parameter Estimation of a Closed Loop Coupled Tank Time Varying System using Recursive Methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basir, Siti Nora; Yussof, Hanafiah; Shamsuddin, Syamimi; Selamat, Hazlina; Zahari, Nur Ismarrubie

    2013-01-01

    This project investigates the direct identification of closed loop plant using discrete-time approach. The uses of Recursive Least Squares (RLS), Recursive Instrumental Variable (RIV) and Recursive Instrumental Variable with Centre-Of-Triangle (RIV + COT) in the parameter estimation of closed loop time varying system have been considered. The algorithms were applied in a coupled tank system that employs covariance resetting technique where the time of parameter changes occur is unknown. The performances of all the parameter estimation methods, RLS, RIV and RIV + COT were compared. The estimation of the system whose output was corrupted with white and coloured noises were investigated. Covariance resetting technique successfully executed when the parameters change. RIV + COT gives better estimates than RLS and RIV in terms of convergence and maximum overshoot

  7. LMI-based gain scheduled controller synthesis for a class of linear parameter varying systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendtsen, Jan Dimon; Anderson, Brian; Lanzon, Alexander

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents a novel method for constructing controllers for a class of single-input multiple-output (SIMO) linear parameter varying (LPV) systems. This class of systems encompasses many physical systems, in particular systems where individual components vary with time, and is therefore...... of significant practical relevance to control designers. The control design presented in this paper has the properties that the system matrix of the closed loop is multi-affine in the various scalar parameters, and that the resulting controller ensures a certain degree of stability for the closed loop even when...... as a standard linear time-invariant (LTI) design combined with a set of linear matrix inequalities, which can be solved efficiently with software tools. The design procedure is illustrated by a numerical example....

  8. A Hilbert transform method for parameter identification of time-varying structures with observer techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Zuo-Cai; Ren, Wei-Xin; Chen, Gen-Da

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a recursive Hilbert transform method for the time-varying property identification of large-scale shear-type buildings with limited sensor deployments. An observer technique is introduced to estimate the building responses from limited available measurements. For an n-story shear-type building with l measurements (l ≤ n), the responses of other stories without measurements can be estimated based on the first r mode shapes (r ≤ l) as-built conditions and l measurements. Both the measured responses and evaluated responses and their Hilbert transforms are then used to track any variation of structural parameters of a multi-story building over time. Given floor masses, both the stiffness and damping coefficients of the building are identified one-by-one from the top to the bottom story. When variations of parameters are detected, a new developed branch-and-bound technique can be used to update the first r mode shapes with the identified parameters. A 60-story shear building with abruptly varying stiffness at different floors is simulated as an example. The numerical results indicate that the proposed method can detect variations of the parameters of large-scale shear-type buildings with limited sensor deployments at appropriate locations. (paper)

  9. Photovoltaic module parameters acquisition model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cibira, Gabriel, E-mail: cibira@lm.uniza.sk; Koščová, Marcela, E-mail: mkoscova@lm.uniza.sk

    2014-09-01

    Highlights: • Photovoltaic five-parameter model is proposed using Matlab{sup ®} and Simulink. • The model acquisits input sparse data matrix from stigmatic measurement. • Computer simulations lead to continuous I–V and P–V characteristics. • Extrapolated I–V and P–V characteristics are in hand. • The model allows us to predict photovoltaics exploitation in different conditions. - Abstract: This paper presents basic procedures for photovoltaic (PV) module parameters acquisition using MATLAB and Simulink modelling. In first step, MATLAB and Simulink theoretical model are set to calculate I–V and P–V characteristics for PV module based on equivalent electrical circuit. Then, limited I–V data string is obtained from examined PV module using standard measurement equipment at standard irradiation and temperature conditions and stated into MATLAB data matrix as a reference model. Next, the theoretical model is optimized to keep-up with the reference model and to learn its basic parameters relations, over sparse data matrix. Finally, PV module parameters are deliverable for acquisition at different realistic irradiation, temperature conditions as well as series resistance. Besides of output power characteristics and efficiency calculation for PV module or system, proposed model validates computing statistical deviation compared to reference model.

  10. Photovoltaic module parameters acquisition model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cibira, Gabriel; Koščová, Marcela

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Photovoltaic five-parameter model is proposed using Matlab ® and Simulink. • The model acquisits input sparse data matrix from stigmatic measurement. • Computer simulations lead to continuous I–V and P–V characteristics. • Extrapolated I–V and P–V characteristics are in hand. • The model allows us to predict photovoltaics exploitation in different conditions. - Abstract: This paper presents basic procedures for photovoltaic (PV) module parameters acquisition using MATLAB and Simulink modelling. In first step, MATLAB and Simulink theoretical model are set to calculate I–V and P–V characteristics for PV module based on equivalent electrical circuit. Then, limited I–V data string is obtained from examined PV module using standard measurement equipment at standard irradiation and temperature conditions and stated into MATLAB data matrix as a reference model. Next, the theoretical model is optimized to keep-up with the reference model and to learn its basic parameters relations, over sparse data matrix. Finally, PV module parameters are deliverable for acquisition at different realistic irradiation, temperature conditions as well as series resistance. Besides of output power characteristics and efficiency calculation for PV module or system, proposed model validates computing statistical deviation compared to reference model

  11. Genetic algorithm–based varying parameter linear quadratic regulator control for four-wheel independent steering vehicle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linlin Gao

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available From the perspective of vehicle dynamics, the four-wheel independent steering vehicle dynamics stability control method is studied, and a four-wheel independent steering varying parameter linear quadratic regulator control system is proposed with the help of expert control method. In the article, a four-wheel independent steering linear quadratic regulator controller for model following purpose is designed first. Then, by analyzing the four-wheel independent steering vehicle dynamic characteristics and the influence of linear quadratic regulator control parameters on control performance, a linear quadratic regulator control parameter adjustment strategy based on vehicle steering state is proposed to achieve the adaptive adjustment of linear quadratic regulator control parameters. In addition, to further improve the control performance, the proposed varying parameter linear quadratic regulator control system is optimized by genetic algorithm. Finally, simulation studies have been conducted by applying the proposed control system to the 8-degree-of-freedom four-wheel independent steering vehicle dynamics model. The simulation results indicate that the proposed control system has better performance and robustness and can effectively improve the stability and steering safety of the four-wheel independent steering vehicle.

  12. An estimation of crude oil import demand in Turkey: Evidence from time-varying parameters approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ozturk, Ilhan; Arisoy, Ibrahim

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study is to model crude oil import demand and estimate the price and income elasticities of imported crude oil in Turkey based on a time-varying parameters (TVP) approach with the aim of obtaining accurate and more robust estimates of price and income elasticities. This study employs annual time series data of domestic oil consumption, real GDP, and oil price for the period 1966–2012. The empirical results indicate that both the income and price elasticities are in line with the theoretical expectations. However, the income elasticity is statistically significant while the price elasticity is statistically insignificant. The relatively high value of income elasticity (1.182) from this study suggests that crude oil import in Turkey is more responsive to changes in income level. This result indicates that imported crude oil is a normal good and rising income levels will foster higher consumption of oil based equipments, vehicles and services by economic agents. The estimated income elasticity of 1.182 suggests that imported crude oil consumption grows at a higher rate than income. This in turn reduces oil intensity over time. Therefore, crude oil import during the estimation period is substantially driven by income. - Highlights: • We estimated the price and income elasticities of imported crude oil in Turkey. • Income elasticity is statistically significant and it is 1.182. • The price elasticity is statistically insignificant. • Crude oil import in Turkey is more responsive to changes in income level. • Crude oil import during the estimation period is substantially driven by income.

  13. A thermal model for photovoltaic panels under varying atmospheric conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Armstrong, S.; Hurley, W.G.

    2010-01-01

    The response of the photovoltaic (PV) panel temperature is dynamic with respect to the changes in the incoming solar radiation. During periods of rapidly changing conditions, a steady state model of the operating temperature cannot be justified because the response time of the PV panel temperature becomes significant due to its large thermal mass. Therefore, it is of interest to determine the thermal response time of the PV panel. Previous attempts to determine the thermal response time have used indoor measurements, controlling the wind flow over the surface of the panel with fans or conducting the experiments in darkness to avoid radiative heat loss effects. In real operating conditions, the effective PV panel temperature is subjected to randomly varying ambient temperature and fluctuating wind speeds and directions; parameters that are not replicated in controlled, indoor experiments. A new thermal model is proposed that incorporates atmospheric conditions; effects of PV panel material composition and mounting structure. Experimental results are presented which verify the thermal behaviour of a photovoltaic panel for low to strong winds.

  14. A 3D domain decomposition approach for the identification of spatially varying elastic material parameters

    KAUST Repository

    Moussawi, Ali

    2015-02-24

    Summary: The post-treatment of (3D) displacement fields for the identification of spatially varying elastic material parameters is a large inverse problem that remains out of reach for massive 3D structures. We explore here the potential of the constitutive compatibility method for tackling such an inverse problem, provided an appropriate domain decomposition technique is introduced. In the method described here, the statically admissible stress field that can be related through the known constitutive symmetry to the kinematic observations is sought through minimization of an objective function, which measures the violation of constitutive compatibility. After this stress reconstruction, the local material parameters are identified with the given kinematic observations using the constitutive equation. Here, we first adapt this method to solve 3D identification problems and then implement it within a domain decomposition framework which allows for reduced computational load when handling larger problems.

  15. New Passivity Criteria for Fuzzy Bam Neural Networks with Markovian Jumping Parameters and Time-Varying Delays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vadivel, P.; Sakthivel, R.; Mathiyalagan, K.; Thangaraj, P.

    2013-02-01

    This paper addresses the problem of passivity analysis issue for a class of fuzzy bidirectional associative memory (BAM) neural networks with Markovian jumping parameters and time varying delays. A set of sufficient conditions for the passiveness of the considered fuzzy BAM neural network model is derived in terms of linear matrix inequalities by using the delay fractioning technique together with the Lyapunov function approach. In addition, the uncertainties are inevitable in neural networks because of the existence of modeling errors and external disturbance. Further, this result is extended to study the robust passivity criteria for uncertain fuzzy BAM neural networks with time varying delays and uncertainties. These criteria are expressed in the form of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), which can be efficiently solved via standard numerical software. Two numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the obtained results.

  16. Partially linear varying coefficient models stratified by a functional covariate

    KAUST Repository

    Maity, Arnab

    2012-10-01

    We consider the problem of estimation in semiparametric varying coefficient models where the covariate modifying the varying coefficients is functional and is modeled nonparametrically. We develop a kernel-based estimator of the nonparametric component and a profiling estimator of the parametric component of the model and derive their asymptotic properties. Specifically, we show the consistency of the nonparametric functional estimates and derive the asymptotic expansion of the estimates of the parametric component. We illustrate the performance of our methodology using a simulation study and a real data application.

  17. Testing for time-varying loadings in dynamic factor models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, Jakob Guldbæk

    Abstract: In this paper we develop a test for time-varying factor loadings in factor models. The test is simple to compute and is constructed from estimated factors and residuals using the principal components estimator. The hypothesis is tested by regressing the squared residuals on the squared...... there is evidence of time-varying loadings on the risk factors underlying portfolio returns for around 80% of the portfolios....

  18. Constructing Regional Groundwater Models from Geophysical Data of Varying Type, Age, and Quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vest Christiansen, Anders; Auken, Esben; Marker, Pernille Aabye

    for parameterization of a 3D model of the subsurface, integrating lithological information from boreholes with resistivity models. The objective is to create a direct input to regional groundwater models for sedimentary areas, where the sand/clay distribution governs the groundwater flow. The resistivity input is all......-inclusive in the sense that we include data from a variety of instruments (DC and EM, ground-based and airborne), with a varying spatial density and varying ages and quality. The coupling between hydrological and geophysical parameters is managed using a translator function with spatially variable parameters, which...

  19. Dynamical bifurcation in a system of coupled oscillators with slowly varying parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor Parasyuk

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with a fast-slow system representing n nonlinearly coupled oscillators with slowly varying parameters. We find conditions which guarantee that all omega-limit sets near the slow surface of the system are equilibria and invariant tori of all dimensions not exceeding n, the tori of dimensions less then n being hyperbolic. We show that a typical trajectory demonstrates the following transient process: while its slow component is far from the stationary points of the slow vector field, the fast component exhibits damping oscillations; afterwards, the former component enters and stays in a small neighborhood of some stationary point, and the oscillation amplitude of the latter begins to increase; eventually the trajectory is attracted by an n-dimesional invariant torus and a multi-frequency oscillatory regime is established.

  20. Analysis of the importance for the doses of varying parameters in the BIOPATH-program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergstroem, U.

    1981-01-01

    The doses to individuals and populations from water-borne nuclides leaked from a repository have been calculated earlier using the computer program BIOPATH. The turnover of nuclides in the biosphere is thereby simulated by the application of compartment theory. For the dominant nuclides in the disposal an analysis of the importance of varying parameters has been done, to decide how strongly uncertainties in data will affect resulting doses. The essential part has been the transfer coefficients but also the uptake in the food-chains has been studied. The purpose of the study has also been to make proposals for forthcoming efforts to improve the basis for such calculations. The study shows the great importance of the surface water-soil-groundwater-drinking water system for the dose. Thereby the most important question is the solubility of the nuclides in the different water reservoirs. (Auth.)

  1. Effect of varying geometrical parameters of trapezoidal corrugated-core sandwich structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zaid N.Z.M.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Sandwich structure is an attractive alternative that increasingly used in the transportation and aerospace industry. Corrugated-core with trapezoidal shape allows enhancing the damage resistance to the sandwich structure, but on the other hand, it changes the structural response of the sandwich structure. The aim of this paper is to study the effect of varying geometrical parameters of trapezoidal corrugated-core sandwich structure under compression loading. The corrugated-core specimen was fabricated using press technique, following the shape of trapezoidal shape. Two different materials were used in the study, glass fibre reinforced plastic (GFRP and carbon fibre reinforced plastic (CFRP. The result shows that the mechanical properties of the core in compression loading are sensitive to the variation of a number of unit cells and the core thickness.

  2. Exponential synchronization of chaotic systems with time-varying delays and parameter mismatches via intermittent control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Shuiming; Hao, Junjun; Liu, Zengrong

    2011-06-01

    This paper studies the synchronization of coupled chaotic systems with time-varying delays in the presence of parameter mismatches by means of periodically intermittent control. Some novel and useful quasisynchronization criteria are obtained by using the methods which are different from the techniques employed in the existing works, and the derived results are less conservative. Especially, a strong constraint on the control width that the control width should be larger than the time delay imposed by the current references is released in this paper. Moreover, our results show that the synchronization criteria depend on the ratio of control width to control period, but not the control width or the control period. Finally, some numerical simulations are given to show the effectiveness of the theoretical results.

  3. Performance Testing of Suspension Plasma Sprayed Thermal Barrier Coatings Produced with Varied Suspension Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas Curry

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Suspension plasma spraying has become an emerging technology for the production of thermal barrier coatings for the gas turbine industry. Presently, though commercial systems for coating production are available, coatings remain in the development stage. Suitable suspension parameters for coating production remain an outstanding question and the influence of suspension properties on the final coatings is not well known. For this study, a number of suspensions were produced with varied solid loadings, powder size distributions and solvents. Suspensions were sprayed onto superalloy substrates coated with high velocity air fuel (HVAF -sprayed bond coats. Plasma spray parameters were selected to generate columnar structures based on previous experiments and were maintained at constant to discover the influence of the suspension behavior on coating microstructures. Testing of the produced thermal barrier coating (TBC systems has included thermal cyclic fatigue testing and thermal conductivity analysis. Pore size distribution has been characterized by mercury infiltration porosimetry. Results show a strong influence of suspension viscosity and surface tension on the microstructure of the produced coatings.

  4. Time varying acceleration coefficients particle swarm optimisation (TVACPSO): A new optimisation algorithm for estimating parameters of PV cells and modules

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jordehi, Ahmad Rezaee

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A modified PSO has been proposed for parameter estimation of PV cells and modules. • In the proposed modified PSO, acceleration coefficients are changed during run. • The proposed modified PSO mitigates premature convergence problem. • Parameter estimation problem has been solved for both PV cells and PV modules. • The results show that proposed PSO outperforms other state of the art algorithms. - Abstract: Estimating circuit model parameters of PV cells/modules represents a challenging problem. PV cell/module parameter estimation problem is typically translated into an optimisation problem and is solved by metaheuristic optimisation problems. Particle swarm optimisation (PSO) is considered as a popular and well-established optimisation algorithm. Despite all its advantages, PSO suffers from premature convergence problem meaning that it may get trapped in local optima. Personal and social acceleration coefficients are two control parameters that, due to their effect on explorative and exploitative capabilities, play important roles in computational behavior of PSO. In this paper, in an attempt toward premature convergence mitigation in PSO, its personal acceleration coefficient is decreased during the course of run, while its social acceleration coefficient is increased. In this way, an appropriate tradeoff between explorative and exploitative capabilities of PSO is established during the course of run and premature convergence problem is significantly mitigated. The results vividly show that in parameter estimation of PV cells and modules, the proposed time varying acceleration coefficients PSO (TVACPSO) offers more accurate parameters than conventional PSO, teaching learning-based optimisation (TLBO) algorithm, imperialistic competitive algorithm (ICA), grey wolf optimisation (GWO), water cycle algorithm (WCA), pattern search (PS) and Newton algorithm. For validation of the proposed methodology, parameter estimation has been done both for

  5. High Frequency Asymptotic Methods for Traveltimes and Anisotropy Parameter Estimation in Azimuthally Varying Media

    KAUST Repository

    Masmoudi, Nabil

    2014-05-01

    Traveltimes are conventionally evaluated by solving the zero-order approximation of the Wentzel, Kramers and Brillouin (WKB) expansion of the wave equation. This high frequency approximation is good enough for most imaging applications and provides us with a traveltime equation called the eikonal equation. The eikonal equation is a non-linear partial differential equation which can be solved by any of the familiar numerical methods. Among the most popular of these methods is the method of characteristics which yields the ray tracing equations and the finite difference approaches. In the first part of the Master Thesis, we use the ray tracing method to solve the eikonal equation to get P-waves traveltimes for orthorhombic models with arbitrary orientation of symmetry planes. We start with a ray tracing procedure specified in curvilinear coordinate system valid for anisotropy of arbitrary symmetry. The coordinate system is constructed so that the coordinate lines are perpendicular to the symmetry planes of an orthorohombic medium. Advantages of this approach are the conservation of orthorhombic symmetry throughout the model and reduction of the number of parameters specifying the model. We combine this procedure with first-order ray tracing and dynamic ray tracing equations for P waves propagating in smooth, inhomogeneous, weakly anisotropic media. The first-order ray tracing and dynamic ray tracing equations are derived from the exact ones by replacing the exact P-wave eigenvalue of the Christoffel matrix by its first-order approximation. In the second part of the Master Thesis, we compute traveltimes using the fast marching method and we develop an approach to estimate the anisotropy parameters. The idea is to relate them analytically to traveltimes which is challenging in inhomogeneous media. Using perturbation theory, we develop traveltime approximations for transversely isotropic media with horizontal symmetry axis (HTI) as explicit functions of the

  6. Modelling Acoustic Wave Propagation in Axisymmetric Varying-Radius Waveguides

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bæk, David; Willatzen, Morten

    2008-01-01

    A computationally fast and accurate model (a set of coupled ordinary differential equations) for fluid sound-wave propagation in infinite axisymmetric waveguides of varying radius is proposed. The model accounts for fluid heat conduction and fluid irrotational viscosity. The model problem is solved...... by expanding solutions in terms of cross-sectional eigenfunctions following Stevenson’s method. A transfer matrix can be easily constructed from simple model responses of a given waveguide and later used in computing the response to any complex wave input. Energy losses due to heat conduction and viscous...

  7. Modeling maximum daily temperature using a varying coefficient regression model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han Li; Xinwei Deng; Dong-Yum Kim; Eric P. Smith

    2014-01-01

    Relationships between stream water and air temperatures are often modeled using linear or nonlinear regression methods. Despite a strong relationship between water and air temperatures and a variety of models that are effective for data summarized on a weekly basis, such models did not yield consistently good predictions for summaries such as daily maximum temperature...

  8. On the link between oil price and exchange rate: A time-varying VAR parameter approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bremond, Vincent; Razafindrabe, Tovonony; Hache, Emmanuel

    2015-07-01

    The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between the effective exchange rate of the dollar and the oil price dynamics from 1976 to 2013. In this context, we propose to explore the economic literature dedicated to financial channels factors (exchange rate, monetary policy, and international liquidity) that could affect the oil price dynamics. In addition to oil prices and the effective exchange rate of the dollar, we use the dry cargo index as a proxy for the real economic activity and prices for precious and industrial raw materials. Using a Bayesian time-varying parameter vector auto-regressive estimation, our main results show that the US Dollar effective exchange rate elasticity of the crude oil prices is not constant across the time and remains negative from 1989. It then highlights that a depreciation of the effective exchange rate of the dollar leads to an increase of the crude oil prices. Our paper also demonstrates the growing influence of financial and commodities markets development upon the global economy. (authors)

  9. The Effect of Stochastically Varying Creep Parameters on Residual Stresses in Ceramic Matrix Composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pineda, Evan J.; Mital, Subodh K.; Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Arnold, Steven M.

    2015-01-01

    Constituent properties, along with volume fraction, have a first order effect on the microscale fields within a composite material and influence the macroscopic response. Therefore, there is a need to assess the significance of stochastic variation in the constituent properties of composites at the higher scales. The effect of variability in the parameters controlling the time-dependent behavior, in a unidirectional SCS-6 SiC fiber-reinforced RBSN matrix composite lamina, on the residual stresses induced during processing is investigated numerically. The generalized method of cells micromechanics theory is utilized to model the ceramic matrix composite lamina using a repeating unit cell. The primary creep phases of the constituents are approximated using a Norton-Bailey, steady state, power law creep model. The effect of residual stresses on the proportional limit stress and strain to failure of the composite is demonstrated. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted using a normal distribution for the power law parameters and the resulting residual stress distributions were predicted.

  10. Modelling Time-Varying Volatility in Financial Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amado, Cristina; Laakkonen, Helinä

    2014-01-01

    The “unusually uncertain” phase in the global financial markets has inspired many researchers to study the effects of ambiguity (or “Knightian uncertainty”) on the decisions made by investors and their implications for the capital markets. We contribute to this literature by using a modified...... version of the time-varying GARCH model of Amado and Teräsvirta (2013) to analyze whether the increasing uncertainty has caused excess volatility in the US and European government bond markets. In our model, volatility is multiplicatively decomposed into two time-varying conditional components: the first...... being captured by a stable GARCH(1,1) process and the second driven by the level of uncertainty in the financial market....

  11. Simple Model with Time-Varying Fine-Structure ``Constant''

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berman, M. S.

    2009-10-01

    Extending the original version written in colaboration with L.A. Trevisan, we study the generalisation of Dirac's LNH, so that time-variation of the fine-structure constant, due to varying electrical and magnetic permittivities is included along with other variations (cosmological and gravitational ``constants''), etc. We consider the present Universe, and also an inflationary scenario. Rotation of the Universe is a given possibility in this model.

  12. Model Complexities of Shallow Networks Representing Highly Varying Functions

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kůrková, Věra; Sanguineti, M.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 171, 1 January (2016), s. 598-604 ISSN 0925-2312 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LD13002 Grant - others:grant for Visiting Professors(IT) GNAMPA-INdAM Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : shallow networks * model complexity * highly varying functions * Chernoff bound * perceptrons * Gaussian kernel units Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science Impact factor: 3.317, year: 2016

  13. Varying Coefficient Panel Data Model in the Presence of Endogenous Selectivity and Fixed Effects

    OpenAIRE

    Malikov, Emir; Kumbhakar, Subal C.; Sun, Yiguo

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers a flexible panel data sample selection model in which (i) the outcome equation is permitted to take a semiparametric, varying coefficient form to capture potential parameter heterogeneity in the relationship of interest, (ii) both the outcome and (parametric) selection equations contain unobserved fixed effects and (iii) selection is generalized to a polychotomous case. We propose a two-stage estimator. Given consistent parameter estimates from the selection equation obta...

  14. Modelling and Control of Ionic Electroactive Polymer Actuators under Varying Humidity Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sunjai Nakshatharan

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we address the problem of position control of ionic electroactive polymer soft actuators under varying relative humidity conditions. The impact of humidity on the actuation performance of ionic actuators is studied through frequency response and impedance spectroscopy analysis. Considering the uncertain performance of the actuator under varying humidity conditions, an adaptable model using the neural network method is developed. The model uses relative humidity magnitude as one of the model parameters, making it robust to different environmental conditions. Utilizing the model, a closed-loop controller based on the model predictive controller is developed for position control of the actuator. The developed model and controller are experimentally verified and found to be capable of predicting and controlling the actuators with excellent tracking accuracy under relative humidity conditions varying in the range of 10–90%.

  15. Modeling spin magnetization transport in a spatially varying magnetic field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Picone, Rico A.R.; Garbini, Joseph L.; Sidles, John A.

    2015-01-01

    We present a framework for modeling the transport of any number of globally conserved quantities in any spatial configuration and apply it to obtain a model of magnetization transport for spin-systems that is valid in new regimes (including high-polarization). The framework allows an entropy function to define a model that explicitly respects the laws of thermodynamics. Three facets of the model are explored. First, it is expressed as nonlinear partial differential equations that are valid for the new regime of high dipole-energy and polarization. Second, the nonlinear model is explored in the limit of low dipole-energy (semi-linear), from which is derived a physical parameter characterizing separative magnetization transport (SMT). It is shown that the necessary and sufficient condition for SMT to occur is that the parameter is spatially inhomogeneous. Third, the high spin-temperature (linear) limit is shown to be equivalent to the model of nuclear spin transport of Genack and Redfield (1975) [1]. Differences among the three forms of the model are illustrated by numerical solution with parameters corresponding to a magnetic resonance force microscopy (MRFM) experiment (Degen et al., 2009 [2]; Kuehn et al., 2008 [3]; Sidles et al., 2003 [4]; Dougherty et al., 2000 [5]). A family of analytic, steady-state solutions to the nonlinear equation is derived and shown to be the spin-temperature analog of the Langevin paramagnetic equation and Curie's law. Finally, we analyze the separative quality of magnetization transport, and a steady-state solution for the magnetization is shown to be compatible with Fenske's separative mass transport equation (Fenske, 1932 [6]). - Highlights: • A framework for modeling the transport of conserved magnetic and thermodynamic quantities in any spatial configuration. • A thermodynamically grounded model of spin magnetization transport valid in new regimes, including high-polarization. • Analysis of the separative quality of

  16. Modeling spin magnetization transport in a spatially varying magnetic field

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Picone, Rico A.R., E-mail: rpicone@stmartin.edu [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle (United States); Garbini, Joseph L. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle (United States); Sidles, John A. [Department of Orthopædics, University of Washington, Seattle (United States)

    2015-01-15

    We present a framework for modeling the transport of any number of globally conserved quantities in any spatial configuration and apply it to obtain a model of magnetization transport for spin-systems that is valid in new regimes (including high-polarization). The framework allows an entropy function to define a model that explicitly respects the laws of thermodynamics. Three facets of the model are explored. First, it is expressed as nonlinear partial differential equations that are valid for the new regime of high dipole-energy and polarization. Second, the nonlinear model is explored in the limit of low dipole-energy (semi-linear), from which is derived a physical parameter characterizing separative magnetization transport (SMT). It is shown that the necessary and sufficient condition for SMT to occur is that the parameter is spatially inhomogeneous. Third, the high spin-temperature (linear) limit is shown to be equivalent to the model of nuclear spin transport of Genack and Redfield (1975) [1]. Differences among the three forms of the model are illustrated by numerical solution with parameters corresponding to a magnetic resonance force microscopy (MRFM) experiment (Degen et al., 2009 [2]; Kuehn et al., 2008 [3]; Sidles et al., 2003 [4]; Dougherty et al., 2000 [5]). A family of analytic, steady-state solutions to the nonlinear equation is derived and shown to be the spin-temperature analog of the Langevin paramagnetic equation and Curie's law. Finally, we analyze the separative quality of magnetization transport, and a steady-state solution for the magnetization is shown to be compatible with Fenske's separative mass transport equation (Fenske, 1932 [6]). - Highlights: • A framework for modeling the transport of conserved magnetic and thermodynamic quantities in any spatial configuration. • A thermodynamically grounded model of spin magnetization transport valid in new regimes, including high-polarization. • Analysis of the separative quality of

  17. Modeling spin magnetization transport in a spatially varying magnetic field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Picone, Rico A. R.; Garbini, Joseph L.; Sidles, John A.

    2015-01-01

    We present a framework for modeling the transport of any number of globally conserved quantities in any spatial configuration and apply it to obtain a model of magnetization transport for spin-systems that is valid in new regimes (including high-polarization). The framework allows an entropy function to define a model that explicitly respects the laws of thermodynamics. Three facets of the model are explored. First, it is expressed as nonlinear partial differential equations that are valid for the new regime of high dipole-energy and polarization. Second, the nonlinear model is explored in the limit of low dipole-energy (semi-linear), from which is derived a physical parameter characterizing separative magnetization transport (SMT). It is shown that the necessary and sufficient condition for SMT to occur is that the parameter is spatially inhomogeneous. Third, the high spin-temperature (linear) limit is shown to be equivalent to the model of nuclear spin transport of Genack and Redfield (1975) [1]. Differences among the three forms of the model are illustrated by numerical solution with parameters corresponding to a magnetic resonance force microscopy (MRFM) experiment (Degen et al., 2009 [2]; Kuehn et al., 2008 [3]; Sidles et al., 2003 [4]; Dougherty et al., 2000 [5]). A family of analytic, steady-state solutions to the nonlinear equation is derived and shown to be the spin-temperature analog of the Langevin paramagnetic equation and Curie's law. Finally, we analyze the separative quality of magnetization transport, and a steady-state solution for the magnetization is shown to be compatible with Fenske's separative mass transport equation (Fenske, 1932 [6]).

  18. Seleção de variáveis em modelos matemáticos dos parâmetros de cultivo do camarão marinho Litopenaeus vannamei Selection of variables in mathematical models of culture parameters of marine shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ady Marinho Bezerra

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available O objetivo deste trabalho foi selecionar as variáveis de manejo do camarão marinho Litopenaeus vannamei que mais influenciaram nas variáveis-respostas ao cultivo (produção, produtividade, peso final e taxa de sobrevivência, em modelos matemáticos. O banco de dados foi composto por 83 cultivos, realizados no período de 2003 a 2005, obtidos de uma fazenda comercial localizada no litoral sul de Pernambuco. Para estimar os parâmetros dos modelos, utilizou-se a técnica dos mínimos quadrados. A seleção das variáveis foi realizada com o processo "backward elimination" associado ao método de transformação de Box e Cox. A adequação das equações e os pressupostos de normalidade e homocedasticidade, para os erros, foram analisadas com base na análise de variância e análise de resíduo. É possível relacionar essas variáveis e estabelecer predições com as equações.The objective of this work was to select management variables of the marine shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei that most influenced culture variable responses (production, productivity, final weight and survival rate, in mathematical models. The database was composed of 83 cultures in the period of 2003 to 2005, obtained from a shrimp farm located in the South coast of Pernambuco. To estimate the parameters of the models it was used the technique of least square. The selection of variable was carried through the backward elimination process associated to the Box and Cox transformation. The adequacy of the equations and the hypothesis of normality and homogeneous variance for the errors were analyzed based on the analysis of variance and on the analysis of residuals. It is possible to correlate those variables and to establish predictions with the equations.

  19. A hepatitis C virus infection model with time-varying drug effectiveness: solution and analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica M Conway

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Simple models of therapy for viral diseases such as hepatitis C virus (HCV or human immunodeficiency virus assume that, once therapy is started, the drug has a constant effectiveness. More realistic models have assumed either that the drug effectiveness depends on the drug concentration or that the effectiveness varies over time. Here a previously introduced varying-effectiveness (VE model is studied mathematically in the context of HCV infection. We show that while the model is linear, it has no closed-form solution due to the time-varying nature of the effectiveness. We then show that the model can be transformed into a Bessel equation and derive an analytic solution in terms of modified Bessel functions, which are defined as infinite series, with time-varying arguments. Fitting the solution to data from HCV infected patients under therapy has yielded values for the parameters in the model. We show that for biologically realistic parameters, the predicted viral decay on therapy is generally biphasic and resembles that predicted by constant-effectiveness (CE models. We introduce a general method for determining the time at which the transition between decay phases occurs based on calculating the point of maximum curvature of the viral decay curve. For the parameter regimes of interest, we also find approximate solutions for the VE model and establish the asymptotic behavior of the system. We show that the rate of second phase decay is determined by the death rate of infected cells multiplied by the maximum effectiveness of therapy, whereas the rate of first phase decline depends on multiple parameters including the rate of increase of drug effectiveness with time.

  20. A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleisher, David H; Condori, Bruno; Quiroz, Roberto; Alva, Ashok; Asseng, Senthold; Barreda, Carolina; Bindi, Marco; Boote, Kenneth J; Ferrise, Roberto; Franke, Angelinus C; Govindakrishnan, Panamanna M; Harahagazwe, Dieudonne; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Naresh Kumar, Soora; Merante, Paolo; Nendel, Claas; Olesen, Jorgen E; Parker, Phillip S; Raes, Dirk; Raymundo, Rubi; Ruane, Alex C; Stockle, Claudio; Supit, Iwan; Vanuytrecht, Eline; Wolf, Joost; Woli, Prem

    2017-03-01

    A potato crop multimodel assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low-input (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi)- and high-input (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United States) management sites. Two calibration stages were explored, partial (P1), where experimental dry matter data were not provided, and full (P2). The median model ensemble response outperformed any single model in terms of replicating observed yield across all locations. Uncertainty in simulated yield decreased from 38% to 20% between P1 and P2. Model uncertainty increased with interannual variability, and predictions for all agronomic variables were significantly different from one model to another (P < 0.001). Uncertainty averaged 15% higher for low- vs. high-input sites, with larger differences observed for evapotranspiration (ET), nitrogen uptake, and water use efficiency as compared to dry matter. A minimum of five partial, or three full, calibrated models was required for an ensemble approach to keep variability below that of common field variation. Model variation was not influenced by change in carbon dioxide (C), but increased as much as 41% and 23% for yield and ET, respectively, as temperature (T) or rainfall (W) moved away from historical levels. Increases in T accounted for the highest amount of uncertainty, suggesting that methods and parameters for T sensitivity represent a considerable unknown among models. Using median model ensemble values, yield increased on average 6% per 100-ppm C, declined 4.6% per °C, and declined 2% for every 10% decrease in rainfall (for nonirrigated sites). Differences in predictions due to model representation of light utilization were significant (P < 0.01). These are the first reported results quantifying uncertainty for tuber/root crops and suggest modeling assessments of climate change impact on potato may be

  1. Magnetized strange quark matter in f(R, T) gravity with bilinear and special form of time varying deceleration parameter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahoo, P. K.; Sahoo, Parbati; Bishi, Binaya K.; Aygün, Sezgin

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, we have studied homogeneous and anisotropic locally rotationally symmetric (LRS) Bianchi type-I model with magnetized strange quark matter (MSQM) distribution and cosmological constant Λ in f(R, T) gravity where R is the Ricci scalar and T the trace of matter source. The exact solutions of the field equations are obtained under bilinear and special form of time varying deceleration parameter (DP). Firstly, we have considered two specific forms of bilinear DP with a single parameter of the form: q = α(1-t)/1+t and q = -αt/1+t, which leads to the constant or linear nature of the function based on the constant α. Second one is the special form of the DP as q = - 1 + β/1+aβ. From the results obtained here, one can observe that in the early universe magnetic flux has more effects and it reduces gradually in the later stage. For t → ∞, we get p → -Bc and ρ → Bc. The behaviour of strange quark matter along with magnetic epoch gives an idea of accelerated expansion of the universe as per the observations of the type Ia Supernovae.

  2. Spherical collapse model in time varying vacuum cosmologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basilakos, Spyros; Plionis, Manolis; Sola, Joan

    2010-01-01

    We investigate the virialization of cosmic structures in the framework of flat Friedmann-Lemaitre-Robertson-Walker cosmological models, in which the vacuum energy density evolves with time. In particular, our analysis focuses on the study of spherical matter perturbations, as they decouple from the background expansion, 'turn around', and finally collapse. We generalize the spherical collapse model in the case when the vacuum energy is a running function of the Hubble rate, Λ=Λ(H). A particularly well-motivated model of this type is the so-called quantum field vacuum, in which Λ(H) is a quadratic function, Λ(H)=n 0 +n 2 H 2 , with n 0 ≠0. This model was previously studied by our team using the latest high quality cosmological data to constrain its free parameters, as well as the predicted cluster formation rate. It turns out that the corresponding Hubble expansion history resembles that of the traditional ΛCDM cosmology. We use this Λ(t)CDM framework to illustrate the fact that the properties of the spherical collapse model (virial density, collapse factor, etc.) depend on the choice of the considered vacuum energy (homogeneous or clustered). In particular, if the distribution of the vacuum energy is clustered, then, under specific conditions, we can produce more concentrated structures with respect to the homogeneous vacuum energy case.

  3. Monopoly models with time-varying demand function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavalli, Fausto; Naimzada, Ahmad

    2018-05-01

    We study a family of monopoly models for markets characterized by time-varying demand functions, in which a boundedly rational agent chooses output levels on the basis of a gradient adjustment mechanism. After presenting the model for a generic framework, we analytically study the case of cyclically alternating demand functions. We show that both the perturbation size and the agent's reactivity to profitability variation signals can have counterintuitive roles on the resulting period-2 cycles and on their stability. In particular, increasing the perturbation size can have both a destabilizing and a stabilizing effect on the resulting dynamics. Moreover, in contrast with the case of time-constant demand functions, the agent's reactivity is not just destabilizing, but can improve stability, too. This means that a less cautious behavior can provide better performance, both with respect to stability and to achieved profits. We show that, even if the decision mechanism is very simple and is not able to always provide the optimal production decisions, achieved profits are very close to those optimal. Finally, we show that in agreement with the existing empirical literature, the price series obtained simulating the proposed model exhibit a significant deviation from normality and large volatility, in particular when underlying deterministic dynamics become unstable and complex.

  4. Fitting Social Network Models Using Varying Truncation Stochastic Approximation MCMC Algorithm

    KAUST Repository

    Jin, Ick Hoon

    2013-10-01

    The exponential random graph model (ERGM) plays a major role in social network analysis. However, parameter estimation for the ERGM is a hard problem due to the intractability of its normalizing constant and the model degeneracy. The existing algorithms, such as Monte Carlo maximum likelihood estimation (MCMLE) and stochastic approximation, often fail for this problem in the presence of model degeneracy. In this article, we introduce the varying truncation stochastic approximation Markov chain Monte Carlo (SAMCMC) algorithm to tackle this problem. The varying truncation mechanism enables the algorithm to choose an appropriate starting point and an appropriate gain factor sequence, and thus to produce a reasonable parameter estimate for the ERGM even in the presence of model degeneracy. The numerical results indicate that the varying truncation SAMCMC algorithm can significantly outperform the MCMLE and stochastic approximation algorithms: for degenerate ERGMs, MCMLE and stochastic approximation often fail to produce any reasonable parameter estimates, while SAMCMC can do; for nondegenerate ERGMs, SAMCMC can work as well as or better than MCMLE and stochastic approximation. The data and source codes used for this article are available online as supplementary materials. © 2013 American Statistical Association, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, and Interface Foundation of North America.

  5. The parameters of free play of light drilling installations with varying configuration of the floating base

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Putov, B.I.

    1980-01-01

    A reduction in the free play may be achieved through the rational selection of the basic dimensions of the body elements, the disposition of the bodies one relative to the other and by the use of various means for passive stabilization. In the design of MPBU not only the mean values of the free play parameters, which characterize a floating base from the point of view of the time people stay on it, must be available, but also the maximal possible values of the parameters with one and the same wave state, which determine the safety of the operation of the drilling equipment. Studies in installations of various standard off shore drilling rigs showed that the mean values of the free play parameters for all off shore drilling rigs with wave heights from 0.8 to 1.2 meters are half the maximal values.

  6. Modelling Conditional and Unconditional Heteroskedasticity with Smoothly Time-Varying Structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amado, Christina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    multiplier type misspecification tests. Finite-sample properties of these procedures and tests are examined by simulation. An empirical application to daily stock returns and another one to daily exchange rate returns illustrate the functioning and properties of our modelling strategy in practice......In this paper, we propose two parametric alternatives to the standard GARCH model. They allow the conditional variance to have a smooth time-varying structure of either ad- ditive or multiplicative type. The suggested parameterizations describe both nonlinearity and structural change...... in the conditional and unconditional variances where the transition between regimes over time is smooth. A modelling strategy for these new time-varying parameter GARCH models is developed. It relies on a sequence of Lagrange multiplier tests, and the adequacy of the estimated models is investigated by Lagrange...

  7. Models of quality-adjusted life years when health varies over time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kristian Schultz; Østerdal, Lars Peter Raahave

    2006-01-01

    Qualityadjusted life year (QALY) models are widely used for economic evaluation in the health care sector. In the first part of the paper, we establish an overview of QALY models where health varies over time and provide a theoretical analysis of model identification and parameter estimation from...... time tradeoff (TTO) and standard gamble (SG) scores. We investigate deterministic and probabilistic models and consider five different families of discounting functions in all. The second part of the paper discusses four issues recurrently debated in the literature. This discussion includes questioning...... of these two can be used to disentangle risk aversion from discounting. We find that caution must be taken when drawing conclusions from models with chronic health states to situations where health varies over time. One notable difference is that in the former case, risk aversion may be indistinguishable from...

  8. Atmospheric Energy Deposition Modeling and Inference for Varied Meteoroid Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Lorien; Mathias, Donovan; Stokan, Edward; Brown, Peter

    2018-01-01

    Asteroids populations are highly diverse, ranging from coherent monoliths to loosely-bound rubble piles with a broad range of material and compositional properties. These different structures and properties could significantly affect how an asteroid breaks up and deposits energy in the atmosphere, and how much ground damage may occur from resulting blast waves. We have previously developed a fragment-cloud model (FCM) for assessing the atmospheric breakup and energy deposition of asteroids striking Earth. The approach represents ranges of breakup characteristics by combining progressive fragmentation with releases of variable fractions of debris and larger discrete fragments. In this work, we have extended the FCM to also represent asteroids with varied initial structures, such as rubble piles or fractured bodies. We have used the extended FCM to model the Chelyabinsk, Benesov, Kosice, and Tagish Lake meteors, and have obtained excellent matches to energy deposition profiles derived from their light curves. These matches provide validation for the FCM approach, help guide further model refinements, and enable inferences about pre-entry structure and breakup behavior. Results highlight differences in the amount of small debris vs. discrete fragments in matching the various flare characteristics of each meteor. The Chelyabinsk flares were best represented using relatively high debris fractions, while Kosice and Benesov cases were more notably driven by their discrete fragmentation characteristics, perhaps indicating more cohesive initial structures. Tagish Lake exhibited a combination of these characteristics, with lower-debris fragmentation at high altitudes followed by sudden disintegration into small debris in the lower flares. Results from all cases also suggest that lower ablation coefficients and debris spread rates may be more appropriate for the way in which debris clouds are represented in FCM, offering an avenue for future model refinement.

  9. Effects of time-varying β in SNLS3 on constraining interacting dark energy models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Shuang; Wang, Yong-Zhen; Geng, Jia-Jia; Zhang, Xin

    2014-01-01

    It has been found that, for the Supernova Legacy Survey three-year (SNLS3) data, there is strong evidence for the redshift evolution of the color-luminosity parameter β. In this paper, adopting the w-cold-dark-matter (wCDM) model and considering its interacting extensions (with three kinds of interaction between dark sectors), we explore the evolution of β and its effects on parameter estimation. In addition to the SNLS3 data, we also use the latest Planck distance priors data, the galaxy clustering data extracted from sloan digital sky survey data release 7 and baryon oscillation spectroscopic survey, as well as the direct measurement of Hubble constant H 0 from the Hubble Space Telescope observation. We find that, for all the interacting dark energy (IDE) models, adding a parameter of β can reduce χ 2 by ∝34, indicating that a constant β is ruled out at 5.8σ confidence level. Furthermore, it is found that varying β can significantly change the fitting results of various cosmological parameters: for all the dark energy models considered in this paper, varying β yields a larger fractional CDM densities Ω c0 and a larger equation of state w; on the other side, varying β yields a smaller reduced Hubble constant h for the wCDM model, but it has no impact on h for the three IDE models. This implies that there is a degeneracy between h and coupling parameter γ. Our work shows that the evolution of β is insensitive to the interaction between dark sectors, and then highlights the importance of considering β's evolution in the cosmology fits. (orig.)

  10. Marching on in anything: solving electromagnetic field equations with a varying physical parameter

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tijhuis, A.G.; Zwamborn, A.P.M.; Smith, P.D.; Cloude, S.R.

    2002-01-01

    In this paper, we consider the determination of electromagnetic fields for a (large) number of values of a physical parameter. We restrict ourselves to the case where the linear system originates from one or more integral equations. We apply an iterative procedure based on the minimization of an

  11. On-Line Identification of Simulation Examples for Forgetting Methods to Track Time Varying Parameters Using the Alternative Covariance Matrix in Matlab

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vachálek, Ján

    2011-12-01

    The paper compares the abilities of forgetting methods to track time varying parameters of two different simulated models with different types of excitation. The observed parameters in the simulations are the integral sum of the Euclidean norm, deviation of the parameter estimates from their true values and a selected band prediction error count. As supplementary information, we observe the eigenvalues of the covariance matrix. In the paper we used a modified method of Regularized Exponential Forgetting with Alternative Covariance Matrix (REFACM) along with Directional Forgetting (DF) and three standard regularized methods.

  12. Parameter Estimation of Partial Differential Equation Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xun, Xiaolei; Cao, Jiguo; Mallick, Bani; Carroll, Raymond J; Maity, Arnab

    2013-01-01

    Partial differential equation (PDE) models are commonly used to model complex dynamic systems in applied sciences such as biology and finance. The forms of these PDE models are usually proposed by experts based on their prior knowledge and understanding of the dynamic system. Parameters in PDE models often have interesting scientific interpretations, but their values are often unknown, and need to be estimated from the measurements of the dynamic system in the present of measurement errors. Most PDEs used in practice have no analytic solutions, and can only be solved with numerical methods. Currently, methods for estimating PDE parameters require repeatedly solving PDEs numerically under thousands of candidate parameter values, and thus the computational load is high. In this article, we propose two methods to estimate parameters in PDE models: a parameter cascading method and a Bayesian approach. In both methods, the underlying dynamic process modeled with the PDE model is represented via basis function expansion. For the parameter cascading method, we develop two nested levels of optimization to estimate the PDE parameters. For the Bayesian method, we develop a joint model for data and the PDE, and develop a novel hierarchical model allowing us to employ Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to make posterior inference. Simulation studies show that the Bayesian method and parameter cascading method are comparable, and both outperform other available methods in terms of estimation accuracy. The two methods are demonstrated by estimating parameters in a PDE model from LIDAR data.

  13. Multivariate time-varying volatility modeling using probabilistic fuzzy systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Basturk, N.; Almeida, R.J.; Golan, R.; Kaymak, U.

    2016-01-01

    Methods to accurately analyze financial risk have drawn considerable attention in financial institutions. One difficulty in financial risk analysis is the fact that banks and other financial institutions invest in several assets which show time-varying volatilities and hence time-varying financial

  14. Distributed Time-Varying Formation Robust Tracking for General Linear Multiagent Systems With Parameter Uncertainties and External Disturbances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hua, Yongzhao; Dong, Xiwang; Li, Qingdong; Ren, Zhang

    2017-05-18

    This paper investigates the time-varying formation robust tracking problems for high-order linear multiagent systems with a leader of unknown control input in the presence of heterogeneous parameter uncertainties and external disturbances. The followers need to accomplish an expected time-varying formation in the state space and track the state trajectory produced by the leader simultaneously. First, a time-varying formation robust tracking protocol with a totally distributed form is proposed utilizing the neighborhood state information. With the adaptive updating mechanism, neither any global knowledge about the communication topology nor the upper bounds of the parameter uncertainties, external disturbances and leader's unknown input are required in the proposed protocol. Then, in order to determine the control parameters, an algorithm with four steps is presented, where feasible conditions for the followers to accomplish the expected time-varying formation tracking are provided. Furthermore, based on the Lyapunov-like analysis theory, it is proved that the formation tracking error can converge to zero asymptotically. Finally, the effectiveness of the theoretical results is verified by simulation examples.

  15. Assessing market uncertainty by means of a time-varying intermittency parameter for asset price fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rypdal, Martin; Sirnes, Espen; Løvsletten, Ola; Rypdal, Kristoffer

    2013-08-01

    Maximum likelihood estimation techniques for multifractal processes are applied to high-frequency data in order to quantify intermittency in the fluctuations of asset prices. From time records as short as one month these methods permit extraction of a meaningful intermittency parameter λ characterising the degree of volatility clustering. We can therefore study the time evolution of volatility clustering and test the statistical significance of this variability. By analysing data from the Oslo Stock Exchange, and comparing the results with the investment grade spread, we find that the estimates of λ are lower at times of high market uncertainty.

  16. Enhancing damping of gas bearings using linear parameter-varying control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Theisen, Lukas Roy Svane; Niemann, Hans Henrik; Galeazzi, Roberto

    2017-01-01

    systems to regulate the injection pressure of the fluid. Due to the strong dependencies of system performance on system parameters, the sought controller should be robust over a large range of operational conditions. This paper addresses the damping enhancement of controllable gas bearings through robust...... control approaches. Through an extensive experimental campaign the paper evaluates two robust controllers, a linear parametervarying (LPV) controller and ∞ controller, on their capability to guarantee stability and performance of a gas bearing across the large operational envelopes in rotational speed...

  17. Quality assessment for radiological model parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Funtowicz, S.O.

    1989-01-01

    A prototype framework for representing uncertainties in radiological model parameters is introduced. This follows earlier development in this journal of a corresponding framework for representing uncertainties in radiological data. Refinements and extensions to the earlier framework are needed in order to take account of the additional contextual factors consequent on using data entries to quantify model parameters. The parameter coding can in turn feed in to methods for evaluating uncertainties in calculated model outputs. (author)

  18. Evaluation of the Overall Costs for the Croatian Repository: Varying Site, Design and Financial Parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kucar-Dragicevic, S.; Subasic, D.; Lebegner, J.

    2000-01-01

    Preliminary preparations for the construction of a LILW repository in Croatia included a number of activities and projects related to the siting process, safety assessment, disposal technology and repository design, and public acceptance issues. Costs evaluations have always been a part of the developing project documentation. However, only the estimates of the facility construction and equipment acquisition costs had been included, while other costs associated with the project development and management have not been considered up to now. For the first time the infrastructure status at the potential sites has been evaluated, and the costs of the repository operations as well as the post-closure management has been estimated. Cost parameters have been considered from both technical and fiscal points of view, comparing their relative influence on the overall repository costs. Assessment of the total project costs in eight cases for the four preferential sites and two repository designs gave a clearer picture of the development and management costs differences for the considered options. Without considerations of the operational and post-operational repository management expenses, the total project costs appear to have been heavily underestimated. Also, while the construction costs for the tunnel and the surface type repositories are significantly different, this influence of the repository type on the total project costs becomes far less important when the later phases management expenses are added. Finally, the role of fiscal parameters may further diminish the site and technology impacts on the overall costs. (author)

  19. Orthoptic parameters and asthenopic symptoms analysis after 3D viewing at varying distances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleeviya Joseph

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available AIM: To analyse visual modifications such as amplitude of accommodation, near point of convergence(NPCreopsis and near phoria associated with asthenopic symptoms after 3D viewing at varying distances.METHODS: A prospective study. Thirty young adults were randomly selected. Each individual was exposed to 3D viewing thrice in a day for a fixed distance and the distance was varied on three consecutive days. Same video of equal duration and different screen sizes were used for every distance. Cyclic 3D mode of K-multimedia(KMplayer was used for projecting the 3D video. Different variables like stereopsis, amplitude of accommodation, near point of accommodation, near phoria and asthenopic symptoms were recorded immediately after 3D video viewing. Stereopsis was measured with “Toegepast Natuurwetenschappelijk Onderzoek” or “Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research”(TNO test, amplitude of accommodation and NPC were measured using RAF ruler, near phoria was measured using prism bar and a closed ended sample questionnaire was used to know the occurrence of asthenopic symptoms. Statistical analyses were performed using descriptive statistics, paired t-test etc. Qualitative data was analyzed using Chi-square test.RESULTS: For every distance of 40 cm, 3 m and 6 m, amplitude of accommodation was significantly reduced by 0.66 D, 1.12 D and 1.44 D. NPC got significantly receded by 0.63 cm, 0.93 cm and 1.23 cm, and the near phoria was significantly increased by 0.87, and 2.2 prism dioptres(PDbase-in respectively. It was found that most of the subjects got pain around the eyes, headache and irritation for each viewing distance. This study also revealed that 3D video viewing in theaters may increase the symptoms of headache, watering and irritation. Symptoms like headache, watering, fatigue, irritation and nausea may increase considerably at home environment and symptoms such as headache and watering may cause significant discomfort by 3D

  20. Establishing statistical models of manufacturing parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Senevat, J.; Pape, J.L.; Deshayes, J.F.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports on the effect of pilgering and cold-work parameters on contractile strain ratio and mechanical properties that were investigated using a large population of Zircaloy tubes. Statistical models were established between: contractile strain ratio and tooling parameters, mechanical properties (tensile test, creep test) and cold-work parameters, and mechanical properties and stress-relieving temperature

  1. Robust estimation of hydrological model parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bárdossy

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available The estimation of hydrological model parameters is a challenging task. With increasing capacity of computational power several complex optimization algorithms have emerged, but none of the algorithms gives a unique and very best parameter vector. The parameters of fitted hydrological models depend upon the input data. The quality of input data cannot be assured as there may be measurement errors for both input and state variables. In this study a methodology has been developed to find a set of robust parameter vectors for a hydrological model. To see the effect of observational error on parameters, stochastically generated synthetic measurement errors were applied to observed discharge and temperature data. With this modified data, the model was calibrated and the effect of measurement errors on parameters was analysed. It was found that the measurement errors have a significant effect on the best performing parameter vector. The erroneous data led to very different optimal parameter vectors. To overcome this problem and to find a set of robust parameter vectors, a geometrical approach based on Tukey's half space depth was used. The depth of the set of N randomly generated parameters was calculated with respect to the set with the best model performance (Nash-Sutclife efficiency was used for this study for each parameter vector. Based on the depth of parameter vectors, one can find a set of robust parameter vectors. The results show that the parameters chosen according to the above criteria have low sensitivity and perform well when transfered to a different time period. The method is demonstrated on the upper Neckar catchment in Germany. The conceptual HBV model was used for this study.

  2. High Frequency Asymptotic Methods for Traveltimes and Anisotropy Parameter Estimation in Azimuthally Varying Media

    KAUST Repository

    Masmoudi, Nabil

    2014-01-01

    of characteristics which yields the ray tracing equations and the finite difference approaches. In the first part of the Master Thesis, we use the ray tracing method to solve the eikonal equation to get P-waves traveltimes for orthorhombic models with arbitrary

  3. Model parameter updating using Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Treml, C.A.; Ross, Timothy J.

    2004-01-01

    This paper outlines a model parameter updating technique for a new method of model validation using a modified model reference adaptive control (MRAC) framework with Bayesian Networks (BNs). The model parameter updating within this method is generic in the sense that the model/simulation to be validated is treated as a black box. It must have updateable parameters to which its outputs are sensitive, and those outputs must have metrics that can be compared to that of the model reference, i.e., experimental data. Furthermore, no assumptions are made about the statistics of the model parameter uncertainty, only upper and lower bounds need to be specified. This method is designed for situations where a model is not intended to predict a complete point-by-point time domain description of the item/system behavior; rather, there are specific points, features, or events of interest that need to be predicted. These specific points are compared to the model reference derived from actual experimental data. The logic for updating the model parameters to match the model reference is formed via a BN. The nodes of this BN consist of updateable model input parameters and the specific output values or features of interest. Each time the model is executed, the input/output pairs are used to adapt the conditional probabilities of the BN. Each iteration further refines the inferred model parameters to produce the desired model output. After parameter updating is complete and model inputs are inferred, reliabilities for the model output are supplied. Finally, this method is applied to a simulation of a resonance control cooling system for a prototype coupled cavity linac. The results are compared to experimental data.

  4. On parameter estimation in deformable models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fisker, Rune; Carstensen, Jens Michael

    1998-01-01

    Deformable templates have been intensively studied in image analysis through the last decade, but despite its significance the estimation of model parameters has received little attention. We present a method for supervised and unsupervised model parameter estimation using a general Bayesian form...

  5. Hybrid online sensor error detection and functional redundancy for systems with time-varying parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Jianyuan; Turksoy, Kamuran; Samadi, Sediqeh; Hajizadeh, Iman; Littlejohn, Elizabeth; Cinar, Ali

    2017-12-01

    Supervision and control systems rely on signals from sensors to receive information to monitor the operation of a system and adjust manipulated variables to achieve the control objective. However, sensor performance is often limited by their working conditions and sensors may also be subjected to interference by other devices. Many different types of sensor errors such as outliers, missing values, drifts and corruption with noise may occur during process operation. A hybrid online sensor error detection and functional redundancy system is developed to detect errors in online signals, and replace erroneous or missing values detected with model-based estimates. The proposed hybrid system relies on two techniques, an outlier-robust Kalman filter (ORKF) and a locally-weighted partial least squares (LW-PLS) regression model, which leverage the advantages of automatic measurement error elimination with ORKF and data-driven prediction with LW-PLS. The system includes a nominal angle analysis (NAA) method to distinguish between signal faults and large changes in sensor values caused by real dynamic changes in process operation. The performance of the system is illustrated with clinical data continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) sensors from people with type 1 diabetes. More than 50,000 CGM sensor errors were added to original CGM signals from 25 clinical experiments, then the performance of error detection and functional redundancy algorithms were analyzed. The results indicate that the proposed system can successfully detect most of the erroneous signals and substitute them with reasonable estimated values computed by functional redundancy system.

  6. A special case of reduced rank models for identification and modelling of time varying effects in survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perperoglou, Aris

    2016-12-10

    Flexible survival models are in need when modelling data from long term follow-up studies. In many cases, the assumption of proportionality imposed by a Cox model will not be valid. Instead, a model that can identify time varying effects of fixed covariates can be used. Although there are several approaches that deal with this problem, it is not always straightforward how to choose which covariates should be modelled having time varying effects and which not. At the same time, it is up to the researcher to define appropriate time functions that describe the dynamic pattern of the effects. In this work, we suggest a model that can deal with both fixed and time varying effects and uses simple hypotheses tests to distinguish which covariates do have dynamic effects. The model is an extension of the parsimonious reduced rank model of rank 1. As such, the number of parameters is kept low, and thus, a flexible set of time functions, such as b-splines, can be used. The basic theory is illustrated along with an efficient fitting algorithm. The proposed method is applied to a dataset of breast cancer patients and compared with a multivariate fractional polynomials approach for modelling time-varying effects. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. State space modeling of time-varying contemporaneous and lagged relations in connectivity maps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molenaar, Peter C M; Beltz, Adriene M; Gates, Kathleen M; Wilson, Stephen J

    2016-01-15

    Most connectivity mapping techniques for neuroimaging data assume stationarity (i.e., network parameters are constant across time), but this assumption does not always hold true. The authors provide a description of a new approach for simultaneously detecting time-varying (or dynamic) contemporaneous and lagged relations in brain connectivity maps. Specifically, they use a novel raw data likelihood estimation technique (involving a second-order extended Kalman filter/smoother embedded in a nonlinear optimizer) to determine the variances of the random walks associated with state space model parameters and their autoregressive components. The authors illustrate their approach with simulated and blood oxygen level-dependent functional magnetic resonance imaging data from 30 daily cigarette smokers performing a verbal working memory task, focusing on seven regions of interest (ROIs). Twelve participants had dynamic directed functional connectivity maps: Eleven had one or more time-varying contemporaneous ROI state loadings, and one had a time-varying autoregressive parameter. Compared to smokers without dynamic maps, smokers with dynamic maps performed the task with greater accuracy. Thus, accurate detection of dynamic brain processes is meaningfully related to behavior in a clinical sample. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  8. The effects of varying plasma parameters on silicon thin film growth by ECR plasma CVD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Summers, S.; Reehal, H.S.; Shirkoohi, G.H.

    2001-01-01

    The technique of electron cyclotron resonance (ECR) plasma enhanced chemical vapour deposition (PECVD) is increasingly being used in electronic and photonic device applications. ECR offers a number of advantages including improved control of the deposition process, less damage to the growing film and the possibility of high deposition rates. ECR occurs in a plasma under appropriate magnetic and electric field conditions. In most cases, as in our system, this is achieved with a combination of 2.45 GHz microwave radiation and a 0.0875 T magnetic field, due to the use of standardized microwave supplies. We have studied the effects on silicon film growth of changing the magnetic field configuration to produce one or more planes of ECR within the system, and of changing the positions of the plane(s) relative to the deposition substrate. The films were grown in silane-hydrogen discharges. The magnetic field in our system was provided by two electromagnets. It was measured experimentally for a number of operating current values and then a detailed profile achieved by modelling using a proprietary software package. A process condition discharge under identical magnetic field configurations to growth was analysed by the use of a Langmuir probe and the results correlated with film properties determined by Raman spectroscopy and Dektak profilometry. (author)

  9. Parameter identification in multinomial processing tree models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schmittmann, V.D.; Dolan, C.V.; Raijmakers, M.E.J.; Batchelder, W.H.

    2010-01-01

    Multinomial processing tree models form a popular class of statistical models for categorical data that have applications in various areas of psychological research. As in all statistical models, establishing which parameters are identified is necessary for model inference and selection on the basis

  10. Parameter Estimation of Partial Differential Equation Models

    KAUST Repository

    Xun, Xiaolei

    2013-09-01

    Partial differential equation (PDE) models are commonly used to model complex dynamic systems in applied sciences such as biology and finance. The forms of these PDE models are usually proposed by experts based on their prior knowledge and understanding of the dynamic system. Parameters in PDE models often have interesting scientific interpretations, but their values are often unknown and need to be estimated from the measurements of the dynamic system in the presence of measurement errors. Most PDEs used in practice have no analytic solutions, and can only be solved with numerical methods. Currently, methods for estimating PDE parameters require repeatedly solving PDEs numerically under thousands of candidate parameter values, and thus the computational load is high. In this article, we propose two methods to estimate parameters in PDE models: a parameter cascading method and a Bayesian approach. In both methods, the underlying dynamic process modeled with the PDE model is represented via basis function expansion. For the parameter cascading method, we develop two nested levels of optimization to estimate the PDE parameters. For the Bayesian method, we develop a joint model for data and the PDE and develop a novel hierarchical model allowing us to employ Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to make posterior inference. Simulation studies show that the Bayesian method and parameter cascading method are comparable, and both outperform other available methods in terms of estimation accuracy. The two methods are demonstrated by estimating parameters in a PDE model from long-range infrared light detection and ranging data. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. © 2013 American Statistical Association.

  11. PARAMETER ESTIMATION IN BREAD BAKING MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hadiyanto Hadiyanto

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Bread product quality is highly dependent to the baking process. A model for the development of product quality, which was obtained by using quantitative and qualitative relationships, was calibrated by experiments at a fixed baking temperature of 200°C alone and in combination with 100 W microwave powers. The model parameters were estimated in a stepwise procedure i.e. first, heat and mass transfer related parameters, then the parameters related to product transformations and finally product quality parameters. There was a fair agreement between the calibrated model results and the experimental data. The results showed that the applied simple qualitative relationships for quality performed above expectation. Furthermore, it was confirmed that the microwave input is most meaningful for the internal product properties and not for the surface properties as crispness and color. The model with adjusted parameters was applied in a quality driven food process design procedure to derive a dynamic operation pattern, which was subsequently tested experimentally to calibrate the model. Despite the limited calibration with fixed operation settings, the model predicted well on the behavior under dynamic convective operation and on combined convective and microwave operation. It was expected that the suitability between model and baking system could be improved further by performing calibration experiments at higher temperature and various microwave power levels.  Abstrak  PERKIRAAN PARAMETER DALAM MODEL UNTUK PROSES BAKING ROTI. Kualitas produk roti sangat tergantung pada proses baking yang digunakan. Suatu model yang telah dikembangkan dengan metode kualitatif dan kuantitaif telah dikalibrasi dengan percobaan pada temperatur 200oC dan dengan kombinasi dengan mikrowave pada 100 Watt. Parameter-parameter model diestimasi dengan prosedur bertahap yaitu pertama, parameter pada model perpindahan masa dan panas, parameter pada model transformasi, dan

  12. LiDAR based prediction of forest biomass using hierarchical models with spatially varying coefficients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babcock, Chad; Finley, Andrew O.; Bradford, John B.; Kolka, Randall K.; Birdsey, Richard A.; Ryan, Michael G.

    2015-01-01

    Many studies and production inventory systems have shown the utility of coupling covariates derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data with forest variables measured on georeferenced inventory plots through regression models. The objective of this study was to propose and assess the use of a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework that accommodates both residual spatial dependence and non-stationarity of model covariates through the introduction of spatial random effects. We explored this objective using four forest inventory datasets that are part of the North American Carbon Program, each comprising point-referenced measures of above-ground forest biomass and discrete LiDAR. For each dataset, we considered at least five regression model specifications of varying complexity. Models were assessed based on goodness of fit criteria and predictive performance using a 10-fold cross-validation procedure. Results showed that the addition of spatial random effects to the regression model intercept improved fit and predictive performance in the presence of substantial residual spatial dependence. Additionally, in some cases, allowing either some or all regression slope parameters to vary spatially, via the addition of spatial random effects, further improved model fit and predictive performance. In other instances, models showed improved fit but decreased predictive performance—indicating over-fitting and underscoring the need for cross-validation to assess predictive ability. The proposed Bayesian modeling framework provided access to pixel-level posterior predictive distributions that were useful for uncertainty mapping, diagnosing spatial extrapolation issues, revealing missing model covariates, and discovering locally significant parameters.

  13. A five-dimensional model of varying fine structure constant

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    an effective theory, under the form of an improved version of the 5D Kaluza-Klein theory. 1. Introduction ... where Н = Н( ) denotes the self-interaction potential of and В its source term. ... expansion rate (Hubble parameter),. = (Ш) is the scale ...

  14. Parameter identification in the logistic STAR model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ekner, Line Elvstrøm; Nejstgaard, Emil

    We propose a new and simple parametrization of the so-called speed of transition parameter of the logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) model. The new parametrization highlights that a consequence of the well-known identification problem of the speed of transition parameter is that th...

  15. Modelling of coupled heat and electric field distribution during ohmic heating of solid foods with varying sizes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feyissa, Aberham Hailu; Bøknæs, Niels; Nielsen, P.L.

    factors leading to variations and uncertainties in prediction of the right process parameters. The current work is focused on modelling of OH of solid food pieces of varying sizes cooked in one batch. A 3D mathematical model of coupled heat transfer and electric field during OH of shrimps has been...

  16. A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    H. Fleisher, David; Condori, Bruno; Quiroz, Roberto

    2017-01-01

    A potato crop multi-model assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low- (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi) and high- (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United States.......01). These are the first reported results quantifying uncertainty for tuber/root crops and suggest modeling assessments of climate change impact on potato may be improved using an ensemble approach....

  17. Exploiting intrinsic fluctuations to identify model parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmer, Christoph; Sahle, Sven; Pahle, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    Parameterisation of kinetic models plays a central role in computational systems biology. Besides the lack of experimental data of high enough quality, some of the biggest challenges here are identification issues. Model parameters can be structurally non-identifiable because of functional relationships. Noise in measured data is usually considered to be a nuisance for parameter estimation. However, it turns out that intrinsic fluctuations in particle numbers can make parameters identifiable that were previously non-identifiable. The authors present a method to identify model parameters that are structurally non-identifiable in a deterministic framework. The method takes time course recordings of biochemical systems in steady state or transient state as input. Often a functional relationship between parameters presents itself by a one-dimensional manifold in parameter space containing parameter sets of optimal goodness. Although the system's behaviour cannot be distinguished on this manifold in a deterministic framework it might be distinguishable in a stochastic modelling framework. Their method exploits this by using an objective function that includes a measure for fluctuations in particle numbers. They show on three example models, immigration-death, gene expression and Epo-EpoReceptor interaction, that this resolves the non-identifiability even in the case of measurement noise with known amplitude. The method is applied to partially observed recordings of biochemical systems with measurement noise. It is simple to implement and it is usually very fast to compute. This optimisation can be realised in a classical or Bayesian fashion.

  18. Setting Parameters for Biological Models With ANIMO

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schivo, Stefano; Scholma, Jetse; Karperien, Hermanus Bernardus Johannes; Post, Janine Nicole; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Langerak, Romanus; André, Étienne; Frehse, Goran

    2014-01-01

    ANIMO (Analysis of Networks with Interactive MOdeling) is a software for modeling biological networks, such as e.g. signaling, metabolic or gene networks. An ANIMO model is essentially the sum of a network topology and a number of interaction parameters. The topology describes the interactions

  19. Parameters and error of a theoretical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeller, P.; Nix, J.R.; Swiatecki, W.

    1986-09-01

    We propose a definition for the error of a theoretical model of the type whose parameters are determined from adjustment to experimental data. By applying a standard statistical method, the maximum-likelihoodlmethod, we derive expressions for both the parameters of the theoretical model and its error. We investigate the derived equations by solving them for simulated experimental and theoretical quantities generated by use of random number generators. 2 refs., 4 tabs

  20. Parameter Estimation of Nonlinear Models in Forestry.

    OpenAIRE

    Fekedulegn, Desta; Mac Siúrtáin, Máirtín Pádraig; Colbert, Jim J.

    1999-01-01

    Partial derivatives of the negative exponential, monomolecular, Mitcherlich, Gompertz, logistic, Chapman-Richards, von Bertalanffy, Weibull and the Richard’s nonlinear growth models are presented. The application of these partial derivatives in estimating the model parameters is illustrated. The parameters are estimated using the Marquardt iterative method of nonlinear regression relating top height to age of Norway spruce (Picea abies L.) from the Bowmont Norway Spruce Thinnin...

  1. Device and performance parameters of Cu(In,Ga)(Se,S){sub 2}-based solar cells with varying i-ZnO layer thickness

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Macabebe, E.Q.B. [Department of Physics, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, P.O. Box 77000, Port Elizabeth 6031 (South Africa); Sheppard, C.J. [Department of Physics, University of Johannesburg, P.O. Box 524, Auckland Park 2006 (South Africa); Dyk, E.E. van, E-mail: ernest.vandyk@nmmu.ac.z [Department of Physics, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, P.O. Box 77000, Port Elizabeth 6031 (South Africa)

    2009-12-01

    In pursuit of low-cost and highly efficient thin film solar cells, Cu(In,Ga)(Se,S){sub 2}/CdS/i-ZnO/ZnO:Al (CIGSS) solar cells were fabricated using a two-step process. The thickness of i-ZnO layer was varied from 0 to 454 nm. The current density-voltage (J-V) characteristics of the devices were measured, and the device and performance parameters of the solar cells were obtained from the J-V curves to analyze the effect of varying i-ZnO layer thickness. The device parameters were determined using a parameter extraction method that utilized particle swarm optimization. The method is a curve-fitting routine that employed the two-diode model. The J-V curves of the solar cells were fitted with the model and the parameters were determined. Results show that as the thickness of i-ZnO was increased, the average efficiency and the fill factor (FF) of the solar cells increase. Device parameters reveal that although the series resistance increased with thicker i-ZnO layer, the solar cells absorbed more photons resulting in higher short-circuit current density (J{sub sc}) and, consequently, higher photo-generated current density (J{sub L}). For solar cells with 303-454 nm-thick i-ZnO layer, the best devices achieved efficiency between 15.24% and 15.73% and the fill factor varied between 0.65 and 0.67.

  2. Device and performance parameters of Cu(In,Ga)(Se,S)2-based solar cells with varying i-ZnO layer thickness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Macabebe, E.Q.B.; Sheppard, C.J.; Dyk, E.E. van

    2009-01-01

    In pursuit of low-cost and highly efficient thin film solar cells, Cu(In,Ga)(Se,S) 2 /CdS/i-ZnO/ZnO:Al (CIGSS) solar cells were fabricated using a two-step process. The thickness of i-ZnO layer was varied from 0 to 454 nm. The current density-voltage (J-V) characteristics of the devices were measured, and the device and performance parameters of the solar cells were obtained from the J-V curves to analyze the effect of varying i-ZnO layer thickness. The device parameters were determined using a parameter extraction method that utilized particle swarm optimization. The method is a curve-fitting routine that employed the two-diode model. The J-V curves of the solar cells were fitted with the model and the parameters were determined. Results show that as the thickness of i-ZnO was increased, the average efficiency and the fill factor (FF) of the solar cells increase. Device parameters reveal that although the series resistance increased with thicker i-ZnO layer, the solar cells absorbed more photons resulting in higher short-circuit current density (J sc ) and, consequently, higher photo-generated current density (J L ). For solar cells with 303-454 nm-thick i-ZnO layer, the best devices achieved efficiency between 15.24% and 15.73% and the fill factor varied between 0.65 and 0.67.

  3. Wind Farm Decentralized Dynamic Modeling With Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soltani, Mohsen; Shakeri, Sayyed Mojtaba; Grunnet, Jacob Deleuran

    2010-01-01

    Development of dynamic wind flow models for wind farms is part of the research in European research FP7 project AEOLUS. The objective of this report is to provide decentralized dynamic wind flow models with parameters. The report presents a structure for decentralized flow models with inputs from...... local models. The results of this report are especially useful, but not limited, to design a decentralized wind farm controller, since in centralized controller design one can also use the model and update it in a central computing node.......Development of dynamic wind flow models for wind farms is part of the research in European research FP7 project AEOLUS. The objective of this report is to provide decentralized dynamic wind flow models with parameters. The report presents a structure for decentralized flow models with inputs from...

  4. Parameter Estimation for Thurstone Choice Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vojnovic, Milan [London School of Economics (United Kingdom); Yun, Seyoung [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-04-24

    We consider the estimation accuracy of individual strength parameters of a Thurstone choice model when each input observation consists of a choice of one item from a set of two or more items (so called top-1 lists). This model accommodates the well-known choice models such as the Luce choice model for comparison sets of two or more items and the Bradley-Terry model for pair comparisons. We provide a tight characterization of the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator. We also provide similar characterizations for parameter estimators defined by a rank-breaking method, which amounts to deducing one or more pair comparisons from a comparison of two or more items, assuming independence of these pair comparisons, and maximizing a likelihood function derived under these assumptions. We also consider a related binary classification problem where each individual parameter takes value from a set of two possible values and the goal is to correctly classify all items within a prescribed classification error. The results of this paper shed light on how the parameter estimation accuracy depends on given Thurstone choice model and the structure of comparison sets. In particular, we found that for unbiased input comparison sets of a given cardinality, when in expectation each comparison set of given cardinality occurs the same number of times, for a broad class of Thurstone choice models, the mean squared error decreases with the cardinality of comparison sets, but only marginally according to a diminishing returns relation. On the other hand, we found that there exist Thurstone choice models for which the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator can decrease much faster with the cardinality of comparison sets. We report empirical evaluation of some claims and key parameters revealed by theory using both synthetic and real-world input data from some popular sport competitions and online labor platforms.

  5. Test models for improving filtering with model errors through stochastic parameter estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gershgorin, B.; Harlim, J.; Majda, A.J.

    2010-01-01

    The filtering skill for turbulent signals from nature is often limited by model errors created by utilizing an imperfect model for filtering. Updating the parameters in the imperfect model through stochastic parameter estimation is one way to increase filtering skill and model performance. Here a suite of stringent test models for filtering with stochastic parameter estimation is developed based on the Stochastic Parameterization Extended Kalman Filter (SPEKF). These new SPEKF-algorithms systematically correct both multiplicative and additive biases and involve exact formulas for propagating the mean and covariance including the parameters in the test model. A comprehensive study is presented of robust parameter regimes for increasing filtering skill through stochastic parameter estimation for turbulent signals as the observation time and observation noise are varied and even when the forcing is incorrectly specified. The results here provide useful guidelines for filtering turbulent signals in more complex systems with significant model errors.

  6. Effects of varying densities on serum reproductive parameters in pen-reared juvenile female rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss farms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Zhishuai; Wen, Haishen; Li, Jifang; He, Feng; Liu, Qun; Wang, Jinhuan; Guan, Biao; Wang, Qinglong

    2017-01-01

    The primary goal of this study was to assess the effect of varying densities on serum reproductive parameters of immature rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss. Experimental trout were maintained in intensive, pen-reared farms for 300 days in fresh water reservoirs. Initial densities were 4.6, 6.6, and 8.6 kg/m3 (40, 60, 80 ind./m3), indicated as SD1, SD2, SD3, and final densities were 31.1, 40.6, 49.3 kg/m3, respectively. A summary of the ovarian stages were observed by histological examination. Serum E2 (estradiol), T (testosterone) were evaluated by radioimmunoassay and FSH (follicle-stimulating-hormone), LH (luteinizing-hormone), vitellogenin, 17α,20β-P (17α,20βdihydroxy4-pregnen-3-one) were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Our findings demonstrated that ovarian development were retarded (from stage III to stage IV) at highest rearing density (SD3) after 180 days of intensive culture (over 40.6 kg/m3). In addition, we observed an inverse relationship between serum reproductive parameters and rearing density. Furthermore, compared to serum reproductive parameters of SD1, E2, T, FSH, vitellogenin, 17α,20β-P, GSI and LH of two higher density groups decreased firstly and significantly at 60 (over 15.9 kg/m 3 ), 180 (over 31.7 kg/m 3 ), 180 (over 40.6 kg/m3), 240 (over 36 kg/m3), 240 (over 36 kg/m3), 240 (over 45 kg/m3) and 300 (over 49.3 kg/m3) days, respectively. Comparing serum reproductive parameters within the same ovarian development stage of rainbow trout from varying densities revealed that higher population density also led to significantly lower overall serum reproductive parameters. Overall, this study presents the reproductive, endocrinological parameters of juvenile female rainbow trout at high rearing densities and indicates the need for rainbow trout (114.44±5.21 g, 19.69±0.31 cm) that are initially stocked at 6.6 or 8.6 kg/m3 should be classified and subdivided into lower density after 180 days of farming (not over 31.7 kg/m3).

  7. Effect of toxic substance on delayed competitive allelopathic phytoplankton system with varying parameters through stability and bifurcation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pal, D.; Mahapatra, G.S.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • We study a delayed two species competitive system with imprecise biological parameters. • We consider impreciseness in the form of interval number. • We introduce parametric functional form of interval number to study the model. • We study the effect of toxicant and time delay under impreciseness. • We discuss the chaotic behavior of the model. - Abstract: We have studied the combined effect of toxicant and fluctuation of the biological parameters on the dynamical behaviors of a delayed two-species competitive system with imprecise biological parameters. Due to the global increase of harmful phytoplankton blooms, the study of dynamic interactions between two competing phytoplankton species in the presence of toxic substances is an active field of research now days. The ordinary mathematical formulation of models for two competing phytoplankton species, when one or both the species liberate toxic substances, is unable to capture the oscillatory and highly variable growth of phytoplankton populations. The deterministic model never predicts the sudden localized behavior of certain species. These obstacles of mathematical modeling can be overcomed if we include interval variability of biological parameters in our modeling approach. In this investigation, we construct imprecise models of allelopathic interactions between two competing phytoplankton species as a parametric differential equation model. We incorporate the effect of toxicant on the species in two different cases known as toxic inhibition and toxic stimulatory system. We have discussed the existence of various equilibrium points and stability of the system at these equilibrium points. In case of toxic stimulatory system, the delay model exhibits a stable limit cycle oscillation. Analytical findings are supported through exhaustive numerical simulations.

  8. Systematic parameter inference in stochastic mesoscopic modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lei, Huan; Yang, Xiu [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99352 (United States); Li, Zhen [Division of Applied Mathematics, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912 (United States); Karniadakis, George Em, E-mail: george_karniadakis@brown.edu [Division of Applied Mathematics, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912 (United States)

    2017-02-01

    We propose a method to efficiently determine the optimal coarse-grained force field in mesoscopic stochastic simulations of Newtonian fluid and polymer melt systems modeled by dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) and energy conserving dissipative particle dynamics (eDPD). The response surfaces of various target properties (viscosity, diffusivity, pressure, etc.) with respect to model parameters are constructed based on the generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansion using simulation results on sampling points (e.g., individual parameter sets). To alleviate the computational cost to evaluate the target properties, we employ the compressive sensing method to compute the coefficients of the dominant gPC terms given the prior knowledge that the coefficients are “sparse”. The proposed method shows comparable accuracy with the standard probabilistic collocation method (PCM) while it imposes a much weaker restriction on the number of the simulation samples especially for systems with high dimensional parametric space. Fully access to the response surfaces within the confidence range enables us to infer the optimal force parameters given the desirable values of target properties at the macroscopic scale. Moreover, it enables us to investigate the intrinsic relationship between the model parameters, identify possible degeneracies in the parameter space, and optimize the model by eliminating model redundancies. The proposed method provides an efficient alternative approach for constructing mesoscopic models by inferring model parameters to recover target properties of the physics systems (e.g., from experimental measurements), where those force field parameters and formulation cannot be derived from the microscopic level in a straight forward way.

  9. Application of lumped-parameter models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, Morten

    This technical report concerns the lumped-parameter models for a suction caisson with a ratio between skirt length and foundation diameter equal to 1/2, embedded into an viscoelastic soil. The models are presented for three different values of the shear modulus of the subsoil (section 1.1). Subse...

  10. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, C.W.

    1984-01-01

    This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base

  11. WINKLER'S SINGLE-PARAMETER SUBGRADE MODEL FROM ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Preferred Customer

    Page 1 ... corresponding single-parameter Winkler model presented in this work. Keywords: Heterogeneous subgrade, Reissner's simplified continuum, Shear interaction, Simplified continuum, Winkler ... model in practical applications and its long time familiarity among practical engineers, its usage has endured to this date ...

  12. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, C W [ed.

    1984-01-01

    This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base. (ACR)

  13. Consistent Stochastic Modelling of Meteocean Design Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Sterndorff, M. J.

    2000-01-01

    Consistent stochastic models of metocean design parameters and their directional dependencies are essential for reliability assessment of offshore structures. In this paper a stochastic model for the annual maximum values of the significant wave height, and the associated wind velocity, current...

  14. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, C.W.

    1983-01-01

    This article reviews the forthcoming book Models and Parameters for Environmental Radiological Assessments, which presents a unified compilation of models and parameters for assessing the impact on man of radioactive discharges, both routine and accidental, into the environment. Models presented in this book include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Summaries are presented for each of the transport and dosimetry areas previously for each of the transport and dosimetry areas previously mentioned, and details are available in the literature cited. A chapter of example problems illustrates many of the methodologies presented throughout the text. Models and parameters presented are based on the results of extensive literature reviews and evaluations performed primarily by the staff of the Health and Safety Research Division of Oak Ridge National Laboratory

  15. Population models for time-varying pesticide exposure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jager T; Jong FMW de; Traas TP; LER; SEC

    2007-01-01

    A model has recently been developed at RIVM to predict the effects of variable exposure to pesticides of plant and animal populations in surface water. Before a pesticide is placed on the market, the environmental risk of the substance has to be assessed. This risk is estimated by comparing

  16. The mobilisation model and parameter sensitivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blok, B.M.

    1993-12-01

    In the PRObabillistic Safety Assessment (PROSA) of radioactive waste in a salt repository one of the nuclide release scenario's is the subrosion scenario. A new subrosion model SUBRECN has been developed. In this model the combined effect of a depth-dependent subrosion, glass dissolution, and salt rise has been taken into account. The subrosion model SUBRECN and the implementation of this model in the German computer program EMOS4 is presented. A new computer program PANTER is derived from EMOS4. PANTER models releases of radionuclides via subrosion from a disposal site in a salt pillar into the biosphere. For uncertainty and sensitivity analyses the new subrosion model Latin Hypercube Sampling has been used for determine the different values for the uncertain parameters. The influence of the uncertainty in the parameters on the dose calculations has been investigated by the following sensitivity techniques: Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficients, Partial Rank Correlation Coefficients, Standardised Rank Regression Coefficients, and the Smirnov Test. (orig./HP)

  17. Source term modelling parameters for Project-90

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, W.; Smith, G.; Worgan, K.; Hodgkinson, D.; Andersson, K.

    1992-04-01

    This document summarises the input parameters for the source term modelling within Project-90. In the first place, the parameters relate to the CALIBRE near-field code which was developed for the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate's (SKI) Project-90 reference repository safety assessment exercise. An attempt has been made to give best estimate values and, where appropriate, a range which is related to variations around base cases. It should be noted that the data sets contain amendments to those considered by KBS-3. In particular, a completely new set of inventory data has been incorporated. The information given here does not constitute a complete set of parameter values for all parts of the CALIBRE code. Rather, it gives the key parameter values which are used in the constituent models within CALIBRE and the associated studies. For example, the inventory data acts as an input to the calculation of the oxidant production rates, which influence the generation of a redox front. The same data is also an initial value data set for the radionuclide migration component of CALIBRE. Similarly, the geometrical parameters of the near-field are common to both sub-models. The principal common parameters are gathered here for ease of reference and avoidance of unnecessary duplication and transcription errors. (au)

  18. Inflation and late-time acceleration in braneworld cosmological models with varying brane tension

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, K.C.; Cheng, K.S.; Harko, T.

    2010-01-01

    Braneworld models with variable brane tension λ introduce a new degree of freedom that allows for evolving gravitational and cosmological constants, the latter being a natural candidate for dark energy. We consider a thermodynamic interpretation of the varying brane tension models, by showing that the field equations with variable λ can be interpreted as describing matter creation in a cosmological framework. The particle creation rate is determined by the variation rate of the brane tension, as well as by the brane-bulk energy-matter transfer rate. We investigate the effect of a variable brane tension on the cosmological evolution of the Universe, in the framework of a particular model in which the brane tension is an exponentially dependent function of the scale factor. The resulting cosmology shows the presence of an initial inflationary expansion, followed by a decelerating phase, and by a smooth transition towards a late accelerated de Sitter type expansion. The varying brane tension is also responsible for the generation of the matter in the Universe (reheating period). The physical constraints on the model parameters, resulting from the observational cosmological data, are also investigated. (orig.)

  19. Importance of hydrological parameters in contaminant transport modeling in a terrestrial environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsuduki, Katsunori; Matsunaga, Takeshi

    2007-01-01

    A grid type multi-layered distributed parameter model for calculating discharge in a watershed was described. Model verification with our field observation resulted in different sets of hydrological parameter values, all of which reproduced the observed discharge. The effect of those varied hydrological parameters on contaminant transport calculation was examined and discussed by simulation of event water transfer. (author)

  20. Mathematical modeling of groundwater contamination with varying velocity field

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Das Pintu

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, analytical models for predicting groundwater contamination in isotropic and homogeneous porous formations are derived. The impact of dispersion and diffusion coefficients is included in the solution of the advection-dispersion equation (ADE, subjected to transient (time-dependent boundary conditions at the origin. A retardation factor and zero-order production terms are included in the ADE. Analytical solutions are obtained using the Laplace Integral Transform Technique (LITT and the concept of linear isotherm. For illustration, analytical solutions for linearly space- and time-dependent hydrodynamic dispersion coefficients along with molecular diffusion coefficients are presented. Analytical solutions are explored for the Peclet number. Numerical solutions are obtained by explicit finite difference methods and are compared with analytical solutions. Numerical results are analysed for different types of geological porous formations i.e., aquifer and aquitard. The accuracy of results is evaluated by the root mean square error (RMSE.

  1. Analysis of Modeling Parameters on Threaded Screws.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vigil, Miquela S. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brake, Matthew Robert [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Vangoethem, Douglas [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-06-01

    Assembled mechanical systems often contain a large number of bolted connections. These bolted connections (joints) are integral aspects of the load path for structural dynamics, and, consequently, are paramount for calculating a structure's stiffness and energy dissipation prop- erties. However, analysts have not found the optimal method to model appropriately these bolted joints. The complexity of the screw geometry cause issues when generating a mesh of the model. This paper will explore different approaches to model a screw-substrate connec- tion. Model parameters such as mesh continuity, node alignment, wedge angles, and thread to body element size ratios are examined. The results of this study will give analysts a better understanding of the influences of these parameters and will aide in finding the optimal method to model bolted connections.

  2. Online Energy Management of City Cars with Multi-Objective Linear Parameter-Varying L2-Gain Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boe-Shong Hong

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This work aims at online regulating transient current out of the batteries of small-sized electric cars that transport people and goods around cities. In a city with heavy traffic, transient current dominates the energy economy and propulsion capability, which are in opposition to each other. In order to manage the trade-off between energy consumption per distance and propulsion capability in transience, the authors improve on previous work on multi-objective linear parameter-varying (LPV L2-gain control. The observer embedded into this multi-objective controller no longer assumes Kalman-filtering structure, and structural conservatism is thus removed. A full-spectrum set of experiments is performed. The results reveal that the feedback design significantly improves energy-motion management.

  3. State estimation for neural neutral-type networks with mixed time-varying delays and Markovian jumping parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lakshmanan, S.; Park, Ju H.; Jung, H. Y.; Balasubramaniam, P.

    2012-01-01

    This paper is concerned with a delay-dependent state estimator for neutral-type neural networks with mixed time-varying delays and Markovian jumping parameters. The addressed neural networks have a finite number of modes, and the modes may jump from one to another according to a Markov process. By construction of a suitable Lyapunov—Krasovskii functional, a delay-dependent condition is developed to estimate the neuron states through available output measurements such that the estimation error system is globally asymptotically stable in a mean square. The criterion is formulated in terms of a set of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), which can be checked efficiently by use of some standard numerical packages

  4. Parameter Estimation of Spacecraft Fuel Slosh Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gangadharan, Sathya; Sudermann, James; Marlowe, Andrea; Njengam Charles

    2004-01-01

    Fuel slosh in the upper stages of a spinning spacecraft during launch has been a long standing concern for the success of a space mission. Energy loss through the movement of the liquid fuel in the fuel tank affects the gyroscopic stability of the spacecraft and leads to nutation (wobble) which can cause devastating control issues. The rate at which nutation develops (defined by Nutation Time Constant (NTC can be tedious to calculate and largely inaccurate if done during the early stages of spacecraft design. Pure analytical means of predicting the influence of onboard liquids have generally failed. A strong need exists to identify and model the conditions of resonance between nutation motion and liquid modes and to understand the general characteristics of the liquid motion that causes the problem in spinning spacecraft. A 3-D computerized model of the fuel slosh that accounts for any resonant modes found in the experimental testing will allow for increased accuracy in the overall modeling process. Development of a more accurate model of the fuel slosh currently lies in a more generalized 3-D computerized model incorporating masses, springs and dampers. Parameters describing the model include the inertia tensor of the fuel, spring constants, and damper coefficients. Refinement and understanding the effects of these parameters allow for a more accurate simulation of fuel slosh. The current research will focus on developing models of different complexity and estimating the model parameters that will ultimately provide a more realistic prediction of Nutation Time Constant obtained through simulation.

  5. Numerical modeling of rapidly varying flows using HEC-RAS and WSPG models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Prasada; Hromadka, Theodore V

    2016-01-01

    The performance of two popular hydraulic models (HEC-RAS and WSPG) for modeling hydraulic jump in an open channel is investigated. The numerical solutions are compared with a new experimental data set obtained for varying channel bottom slopes and flow rates. Both the models satisfactorily predict the flow depths and location of the jump. The end results indicate that the numerical models output is sensitive to the value of chosen roughness coefficient. For this application, WSPG model is easier to implement with few input variables.

  6. Time-varying volatility in Malaysian stock exchange: An empirical study using multiple-volatility-shift fractionally integrated model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheong, Chin Wen

    2008-02-01

    This article investigated the influences of structural breaks on the fractionally integrated time-varying volatility model in the Malaysian stock markets which included the Kuala Lumpur composite index and four major sectoral indices. A fractionally integrated time-varying volatility model combined with sudden changes is developed to study the possibility of structural change in the empirical data sets. Our empirical results showed substantial reduction in fractional differencing parameters after the inclusion of structural change during the Asian financial and currency crises. Moreover, the fractionally integrated model with sudden change in volatility performed better in the estimation and specification evaluations.

  7. Modelling suction instabilities in soils at varying degrees of saturation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buscarnera Giuseppe

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Wetting paths imparted by the natural environment and/or human activities affect the state of soils in the near-surface, promoting transitions across different regimes of saturation. This paper discusses a set of techniques aimed at quantifying the role of hydrologic processes on the hydro-mechanical stability of soil specimens subjected to saturation events. Emphasis is given to the mechanical conditions leading to coupled flow/deformation instabilities. For this purpose, energy balance arguments for three-phase systems are used to derive second-order work expressions applicable to various regimes of saturation. Controllability analyses are then performed to relate such work input with constitutive singularities that reflect the loss of strength under coupled and/or uncoupled hydro-mechanical forcing. A suction-dependent plastic model is finally used to track the evolution of stability conditions in samples subjected to wetting, thus quantifying the growth of the potential for coupled failure modes upon increasing degree of saturation. These findings are eventually linked with the properties of the field equations that govern pore pressure transients, thus disclosing a conceptual link between the onset of coupled hydro-mechanical failures and the evolution of suction with time. Such results point out that mathematical instabilities caused by a non-linear suction dependent behaviour play an important role in the advanced constitutive and/or numerical tools that are commonly used for the analysis of geomechanical problems in the unsaturated zone, and further stress that the relation between suction transients and soil deformations is a key factor for the interpretation of runaway failures caused by intense saturation events.

  8. Studies of wheel-running reinforcement: parameters of Herrnstein's (1970) response-strength equation vary with schedule order.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belke, T W

    2000-05-01

    Six male Wistar rats were exposed to different orders of reinforcement schedules to investigate if estimates from Herrnstein's (1970) single-operant matching law equation would vary systematically with schedule order. Reinforcement schedules were arranged in orders of increasing and decreasing reinforcement rate. Subsequently, all rats were exposed to a single reinforcement schedule within a session to determine within-session changes in responding. For each condition, the operant was lever pressing and the reinforcing consequence was the opportunity to run for 15 s. Estimates of k and R(O) were higher when reinforcement schedules were arranged in order of increasing reinforcement rate. Within a session on a single reinforcement schedule, response rates increased between the beginning and the end of a session. A positive correlation between the difference in parameters between schedule orders and the difference in response rates within a session suggests that the within-session change in response rates may be related to the difference in the asymptotes. These results call into question the validity of parameter estimates from Herrnstein's (1970) equation when reinforcer efficacy changes within a session.

  9. Seasonal and spatial variation in broadleaf forest model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groenendijk, M.; van der Molen, M. K.; Dolman, A. J.

    2009-04-01

    Process based, coupled ecosystem carbon, energy and water cycle models are used with the ultimate goal to project the effect of future climate change on the terrestrial carbon cycle. A typical dilemma in such exercises is how much detail the model must be given to describe the observations reasonably realistic while also be general. We use a simple vegetation model (5PM) with five model parameters to study the variability of the parameters. These parameters are derived from the observed carbon and water fluxes from the FLUXNET database. For 15 broadleaf forests the model parameters were derived for different time resolutions. It appears that in general for all forests, the correlation coefficient between observed and simulated carbon and water fluxes improves with a higher parameter time resolution. The quality of the simulations is thus always better when a higher time resolution is used. These results show that annual parameters are not capable of properly describing weather effects on ecosystem fluxes, and that two day time resolution yields the best results. A first indication of the climate constraints can be found by the seasonal variation of the covariance between Jm, which describes the maximum electron transport for photosynthesis, and climate variables. A general seasonality we found is that during winter the covariance with all climate variables is zero. Jm increases rapidly after initial spring warming, resulting in a large covariance with air temperature and global radiation. During summer Jm is less variable, but co-varies negatively with air temperature and vapour pressure deficit and positively with soil water content. A temperature response appears during spring and autumn for broadleaf forests. This shows that an annual model parameter cannot be representative for the entire year. And relations with mean annual temperature are not possible. During summer the photosynthesis parameters are constrained by water availability, soil water content and

  10. Model comparisons and genetic and environmental parameter ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    arc

    Model comparisons and genetic and environmental parameter estimates of growth and the ... breeding strategies and for accurate breeding value estimation. The objectives ...... Sci. 23, 72-76. Van Wyk, J.B., Fair, M.D. & Cloete, S.W.P., 2003.

  11. The rho-parameter in supersymmetric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, C.S.; Inami, T.; Sakai, N.

    1983-10-01

    The electroweak rho-parameter is examined in a general class of supersymmetric models. Formulae are given for one-loop contributions to Δrho from scalar quarks and leptons, gauge-Higgs fermions and an extra doublet of Higgs scalars. Mass differences between members of isodoublet scalar quarks and leptons are constrained to be less than about 200 GeV. (author)

  12. A lumped parameter model of plasma focus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez, Jose H.; Florido, Pablo C.; Bruzzone, H.; Clausse, Alejandro

    1999-01-01

    A lumped parameter model to estimate neutron emission of a plasma focus (PF) device is developed. The dynamic of the current sheet is calculated using a snowplow model, and the neutron production with the thermal fusion cross section for a deuterium filling gas. The results were contrasted as a function of the filling pressure with experimental measurements of a 3.68 KJ Mather-type PF. (author)

  13. One parameter model potential for noble metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Idrees, M.; Khwaja, F.A.; Razmi, M.S.K.

    1981-08-01

    A phenomenological one parameter model potential which includes s-d hybridization and core-core exchange contributions is proposed for noble metals. A number of interesting properties like liquid metal resistivities, band gaps, thermoelectric powers and ion-ion interaction potentials are calculated for Cu, Ag and Au. The results obtained are in better agreement with experiment than the ones predicted by the other model potentials in the literature. (author)

  14. Calibration of discrete element model parameters: soybeans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghodki, Bhupendra M.; Patel, Manish; Namdeo, Rohit; Carpenter, Gopal

    2018-05-01

    Discrete element method (DEM) simulations are broadly used to get an insight of flow characteristics of granular materials in complex particulate systems. DEM input parameters for a model are the critical prerequisite for an efficient simulation. Thus, the present investigation aims to determine DEM input parameters for Hertz-Mindlin model using soybeans as a granular material. To achieve this aim, widely acceptable calibration approach was used having standard box-type apparatus. Further, qualitative and quantitative findings such as particle profile, height of kernels retaining the acrylic wall, and angle of repose of experiments and numerical simulations were compared to get the parameters. The calibrated set of DEM input parameters includes the following (a) material properties: particle geometric mean diameter (6.24 mm); spherical shape; particle density (1220 kg m^{-3} ), and (b) interaction parameters such as particle-particle: coefficient of restitution (0.17); coefficient of static friction (0.26); coefficient of rolling friction (0.08), and particle-wall: coefficient of restitution (0.35); coefficient of static friction (0.30); coefficient of rolling friction (0.08). The results may adequately be used to simulate particle scale mechanics (grain commingling, flow/motion, forces, etc) of soybeans in post-harvest machinery and devices.

  15. Parameter optimization for surface flux transport models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitbread, T.; Yeates, A. R.; Muñoz-Jaramillo, A.; Petrie, G. J. D.

    2017-11-01

    Accurate prediction of solar activity calls for precise calibration of solar cycle models. Consequently we aim to find optimal parameters for models which describe the physical processes on the solar surface, which in turn act as proxies for what occurs in the interior and provide source terms for coronal models. We use a genetic algorithm to optimize surface flux transport models using National Solar Observatory (NSO) magnetogram data for Solar Cycle 23. This is applied to both a 1D model that inserts new magnetic flux in the form of idealized bipolar magnetic regions, and also to a 2D model that assimilates specific shapes of real active regions. The genetic algorithm searches for parameter sets (meridional flow speed and profile, supergranular diffusivity, initial magnetic field, and radial decay time) that produce the best fit between observed and simulated butterfly diagrams, weighted by a latitude-dependent error structure which reflects uncertainty in observations. Due to the easily adaptable nature of the 2D model, the optimization process is repeated for Cycles 21, 22, and 24 in order to analyse cycle-to-cycle variation of the optimal solution. We find that the ranges and optimal solutions for the various regimes are in reasonable agreement with results from the literature, both theoretical and observational. The optimal meridional flow profiles for each regime are almost entirely within observational bounds determined by magnetic feature tracking, with the 2D model being able to accommodate the mean observed profile more successfully. Differences between models appear to be important in deciding values for the diffusive and decay terms. In like fashion, differences in the behaviours of different solar cycles lead to contrasts in parameters defining the meridional flow and initial field strength.

  16. Biochemical parameters in the blood of grass snakes (Natrix natrix in ecosystems under varying degrees of anthropogenic influence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Y. Gasso

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The grass snake Natrix natrix (Linnaeus, 1758 is a partly hygrophilous species, distributed throughoutUkraine. This snake may be considered as a test object for environmental biomonitoring. Modern biochemical methods make it possible to obtain new scientific data on the effects of anthropogenic pressure on reptiles. Blood is a sensitive and informative indicator of the condition of an organism as it responds quickly to most changes in exogenous and endogenous factors, and reflects negative influences on both individual and, indirectly, populations. Changes in biochemical parameters may be used as biomarkers of the state of health of reptiles in ecosystems under varying degrees of anthropogenic pressure. Due the increase in anthropogenic influence the development and introduction of new methods of perceptual research, collection of up-to-date information and development of a database of reptile biochemical parameters have become an urgent priority. We collected mature individuals of the grass snake in floodplain ecosystems on the right bank of the Dnieper River in Dnipropetrovsk city. Grass snakes from floodplain habitats on the left bank of theSamaraRiver (O.L. Belgard Prysamarskii International Biosphere Station, Novomoskovsk district, Dnipropetrovsk province were studied as the control specimens. Our study demonstrated statistically significant differences between snakes from the study sites in the amount of albumin, urea and urea nitrogen, and inorganic phosphorus, as well as in alanine aminotransferase (ALT and alkaline phosphatise (AP activity. The amount of albumin in the blood serum of specimens from the anthropogenically transformed areas was significantly lower (by 25% than in that of the snakes caught in the control habitats. Decrease of the albumin concentration usually indicates abnormal processes in the kidneys and liver. According to the changes observed in the concentration of albumin, a corresponding increase in the albumin to

  17. Time-varying metamaterials based on graphene-wrapped microwires: Modeling and potential applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salary, Mohammad Mahdi; Jafar-Zanjani, Samad; Mosallaei, Hossein

    2018-03-01

    The successful realization of metamaterials and metasurfaces requires the judicious choice of constituent elements. In this paper, we demonstrate the implementation of time-varying metamaterials in the terahertz frequency regime by utilizing graphene-wrapped microwires as building blocks and modulation of graphene conductivity through exterior electrical gating. These elements enable enhancement of light-graphene interaction by utilizing optical resonances associated with Mie scattering, yielding a large tunability and modulation depth. We develop a semianalytical framework based on transition-matrix formulation for modeling and analysis of periodic and aperiodic arrays of such time-varying building blocks. The proposed method is validated against full-wave numerical results obtained using the finite-difference time-domain method. It provides an ideal tool for mathematical synthesis and analysis of space-time gradient metamaterials, eliminating the need for computationally expensive numerical models. Moreover, it allows for a wider exploration of exotic space-time scattering phenomena in time-modulated metamaterials. We apply the method to explore the role of modulation parameters in the generation of frequency harmonics and their emerging wavefronts. Several potential applications of such platforms are demonstrated, including frequency conversion, holographic generation of frequency harmonics, and spatiotemporal manipulation of light. The presented results provide key physical insights to design time-modulated functional metadevices using various building blocks and open up new directions in the emerging paradigm of time-modulated metamaterials.

  18. Research on Adaptive Neural Network Control System Based on Nonlinear U-Model with Time-Varying Delay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fengxia Xu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available U-model can approximate a large class of smooth nonlinear time-varying delay system to any accuracy by using time-varying delay parameters polynomial. This paper proposes a new approach, namely, U-model approach, to solving the problems of analysis and synthesis for nonlinear systems. Based on the idea of discrete-time U-model with time-varying delay, the identification algorithm of adaptive neural network is given for the nonlinear model. Then, the controller is designed by using the Newton-Raphson formula and the stability analysis is given for the closed-loop nonlinear systems. Finally, illustrative examples are given to show the validity and applicability of the obtained results.

  19. On the effect of model parameters on forecast objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzban, Caren; Jones, Corinne; Li, Ning; Sandgathe, Scott

    2018-04-01

    Many physics-based numerical models produce a gridded, spatial field of forecasts, e.g., a temperature map. The field for some quantities generally consists of spatially coherent and disconnected objects. Such objects arise in many problems, including precipitation forecasts in atmospheric models, eddy currents in ocean models, and models of forest fires. Certain features of these objects (e.g., location, size, intensity, and shape) are generally of interest. Here, a methodology is developed for assessing the impact of model parameters on the features of forecast objects. The main ingredients of the methodology include the use of (1) Latin hypercube sampling for varying the values of the model parameters, (2) statistical clustering algorithms for identifying objects, (3) multivariate multiple regression for assessing the impact of multiple model parameters on the distribution (across the forecast domain) of object features, and (4) methods for reducing the number of hypothesis tests and controlling the resulting errors. The final output of the methodology is a series of box plots and confidence intervals that visually display the sensitivities. The methodology is demonstrated on precipitation forecasts from a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model.

  20. Statistical approach for uncertainty quantification of experimental modal model parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Luczak, M.; Peeters, B.; Kahsin, M.

    2014-01-01

    Composite materials are widely used in manufacture of aerospace and wind energy structural components. These load carrying structures are subjected to dynamic time-varying loading conditions. Robust structural dynamics identification procedure impose tight constraints on the quality of modal models...... represent different complexity levels ranging from coupon, through sub-component up to fully assembled aerospace and wind energy structural components made of composite materials. The proposed method is demonstrated on two application cases of a small and large wind turbine blade........ This paper aims at a systematic approach for uncertainty quantification of the parameters of the modal models estimated from experimentally obtained data. Statistical analysis of modal parameters is implemented to derive an assessment of the entire modal model uncertainty measure. Investigated structures...

  1. Constant-parameter capture-recapture models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brownie, C.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.

    1986-01-01

    Jolly (1982, Biometrics 38, 301-321) presented modifications of the Jolly-Seber model for capture-recapture data, which assume constant survival and/or capture rates. Where appropriate, because of the reduced number of parameters, these models lead to more efficient estimators than the Jolly-Seber model. The tests to compare models given by Jolly do not make complete use of the data, and we present here the appropriate modifications, and also indicate how to carry out goodness-of-fit tests which utilize individual capture history information. We also describe analogous models for the case where young and adult animals are tagged. The availability of computer programs to perform the analysis is noted, and examples are given using output from these programs.

  2. On the role of modeling parameters in IMRT plan optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krause, Michael; Scherrer, Alexander; Thieke, Christian

    2008-01-01

    The formulation of optimization problems in intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) planning comprises the choice of various values such as function-specific parameters or constraint bounds. In current inverse planning programs that yield a single treatment plan for each optimization, it is often unclear how strongly these modeling parameters affect the resulting plan. This work investigates the mathematical concepts of elasticity and sensitivity to deal with this problem. An artificial planning case with a horse-shoe formed target with different opening angles surrounding a circular risk structure is studied. As evaluation functions the generalized equivalent uniform dose (EUD) and the average underdosage below and average overdosage beyond certain dose thresholds are used. A single IMRT plan is calculated for an exemplary parameter configuration. The elasticity and sensitivity of each parameter are then calculated without re-optimization, and the results are numerically verified. The results show the following. (1) elasticity can quantify the influence of a modeling parameter on the optimization result in terms of how strongly the objective function value varies under modifications of the parameter value. It also can describe how strongly the geometry of the involved planning structures affects the optimization result. (2) Based on the current parameter settings and corresponding treatment plan, sensitivity analysis can predict the optimization result for modified parameter values without re-optimization, and it can estimate the value intervals in which such predictions are valid. In conclusion, elasticity and sensitivity can provide helpful tools in inverse IMRT planning to identify the most critical parameters of an individual planning problem and to modify their values in an appropriate way

  3. Output-Only Modal Parameter Recursive Estimation of Time-Varying Structures via a Kernel Ridge Regression FS-TARMA Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhi-Sai Ma

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Modal parameter estimation plays an important role in vibration-based damage detection and is worth more attention and investigation, as changes in modal parameters are usually being used as damage indicators. This paper focuses on the problem of output-only modal parameter recursive estimation of time-varying structures based upon parameterized representations of the time-dependent autoregressive moving average (TARMA. A kernel ridge regression functional series TARMA (FS-TARMA recursive identification scheme is proposed and subsequently employed for the modal parameter estimation of a numerical three-degree-of-freedom time-varying structural system and a laboratory time-varying structure consisting of a simply supported beam and a moving mass sliding on it. The proposed method is comparatively assessed against an existing recursive pseudolinear regression FS-TARMA approach via Monte Carlo experiments and shown to be capable of accurately tracking the time-varying dynamics in a recursive manner.

  4. A dynamic capacity degradation model and its applications considering varying load for a large format Li-ion battery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ouyang, Minggao; Feng, Xuning; Han, Xuebing; Lu, Languang; Li, Zhe; He, Xiangming

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A dynamic capacity degradation model for large format Li-ion battery is proposed. • The change of the model parameters directly link with the degradation mechanisms. • The model can simulate the fading behavior of Li-ion battery under varying loads. • The model can help evaluate the longevity of a battery system under specific load. • The model can help predict the evolution of cell variations within a battery pack. - Abstract: The capacity degradation of the lithium ion battery should be well predicted during battery system design. Therefore, high-fidelity capacity degradation models that are suitable for the task of capacity prediction are required. This paper proposes a novel capacity degradation model that can simulate the degradation dynamics under varying working conditions for large-format lithium ion batteries. The degradation model is built based on a mechanistic and prognostic model (MPM) whose parameters are closely linked with the degradation mechanisms of lithium ion batteries. Chemical kinetics was set to drive the parameters of the MPM to change as capacity degradation continues. With the dynamic parameters of the MPM, the capacity predicted by the degradation model decreases as the cycle continues. Accelerated aging tests were conducted on three types of commercial lithium ion batteries to calibrate the capacity degradation model. The good fit with the experimental data indicates that the model can capture the degradation mechanisms well for different types of commercial lithium ion batteries. Furthermore, the calibrated model can be used to (1) evaluate the longevity of a battery system under a specific working load and (2) predict the evolution of cell variations within a battery pack when different cell works at different conditions. Correlated applications are discussed using the calibrated degradation model.

  5. Numerical modelling of flow structures over idealized transverse aeolian dunes of varying geometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, Daniel R.; Walker, Ian J.; Wiggs, Giles F. S.

    2004-04-01

    A Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model (PHOENICS™ 3.5) previously validated for wind tunnel measurements is used to simulate the streamwise and vertical velocity flow fields over idealized transverse dunes of varying height ( h) and stoss slope basal length ( L). The model accurately reproduced patterns of: flow deceleration at the dune toe; stoss flow acceleration; vertical lift in the crest region; lee-side flow separation, re-attachment and reversal; and flow recovery distance. Results indicate that the flow field over transverse dunes is particularly sensitive to changes in dune height, with an increase in height resulting in flow deceleration at the toe, streamwise acceleration and vertical lift at the crest, and an increase in the extent of, and strength of reversed flows within, the lee-side separation cell. In general, the length of the separation zone varied from 3 to 15 h from the crest and increased over taller, steeper dunes. Similarly, the flow recovery distance ranged from 45 to >75 h and was more sensitive to changes in dune height. For the range of dune shapes investigated in this study, the differing effects of height and stoss slope length raise questions regarding the applicability of dune aspect ratio as a parameter for explaining airflow over transverse dunes. Evidence is also provided to support existing research on: streamline curvature and the maintenance of sand transport in the toe region; vertical lift in the crest region and its effect on grainfall delivery; relations between the turbulent shear layer and downward forcing of flow re-attachment; and extended flow recovery distances beyond the separation cell. Field validation is required to test these findings in natural settings. Future applications of the model will characterize turbulence and shear stress fields, examine the effects of more complex isolated dune forms and investigate flow over multiple dunes.

  6. The lumped parameter model for fuel pins

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, W S [Ontario Hydro, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    1996-12-31

    The use of a lumped fuel-pin model in a thermal-hydraulic code is advantageous because of computational simplicity and efficiency. The model uses an averaging approach over the fuel cross section and makes some simplifying assumptions to describe the transient equations for the averaged fuel, fuel centerline and sheath temperatures. It is shown that by introducing a factor in the effective fuel conductivity, the analytical solution of the mean fuel temperature can be modified to simulate the effects of the flux depression in the heat generation rate and the variation in fuel thermal conductivity. The simplified analytical method used in the transient equation is presented. The accuracy of the lumped parameter model has been compared with the results from the finite difference method. (author). 4 refs., 2 tabs., 4 figs.

  7. Modeling of Parameters of Subcritical Assembly SAD

    CERN Document Server

    Petrochenkov, S; Puzynin, I

    2005-01-01

    The accepted conceptual design of the experimental Subcritical Assembly in Dubna (SAD) is based on the MOX core with a nominal unit capacity of 25 kW (thermal). This corresponds to the multiplication coefficient $k_{\\rm eff} =0.95$ and accelerator beam power 1 kW. A subcritical assembly driven with the existing 660 MeV proton accelerator at the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research has been modelled in order to make choice of the optimal parameters for the future experiments. The Monte Carlo method was used to simulate neutron spectra, energy deposition and doses calculations. Some of the calculation results are presented in the paper.

  8. Parameter estimation in fractional diffusion models

    CERN Document Server

    Kubilius, Kęstutis; Ralchenko, Kostiantyn

    2017-01-01

    This book is devoted to parameter estimation in diffusion models involving fractional Brownian motion and related processes. For many years now, standard Brownian motion has been (and still remains) a popular model of randomness used to investigate processes in the natural sciences, financial markets, and the economy. The substantial limitation in the use of stochastic diffusion models with Brownian motion is due to the fact that the motion has independent increments, and, therefore, the random noise it generates is “white,” i.e., uncorrelated. However, many processes in the natural sciences, computer networks and financial markets have long-term or short-term dependences, i.e., the correlations of random noise in these processes are non-zero, and slowly or rapidly decrease with time. In particular, models of financial markets demonstrate various kinds of memory and usually this memory is modeled by fractional Brownian diffusion. Therefore, the book constructs diffusion models with memory and provides s...

  9. Modeling Nonstationary Emotion Dynamics in Dyads using a Time-Varying Vector-Autoregressive Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bringmann, Laura F; Ferrer, Emilio; Hamaker, Ellen L; Borsboom, Denny; Tuerlinckx, Francis

    2018-01-01

    Emotion dynamics are likely to arise in an interpersonal context. Standard methods to study emotions in interpersonal interaction are limited because stationarity is assumed. This means that the dynamics, for example, time-lagged relations, are invariant across time periods. However, this is generally an unrealistic assumption. Whether caused by an external (e.g., divorce) or an internal (e.g., rumination) event, emotion dynamics are prone to change. The semi-parametric time-varying vector-autoregressive (TV-VAR) model is based on well-studied generalized additive models, implemented in the software R. The TV-VAR can explicitly model changes in temporal dependency without pre-existing knowledge about the nature of change. A simulation study is presented, showing that the TV-VAR model is superior to the standard time-invariant VAR model when the dynamics change over time. The TV-VAR model is applied to empirical data on daily feelings of positive affect (PA) from a single couple. Our analyses indicate reliable changes in the male's emotion dynamics over time, but not in the female's-which were not predicted by her own affect or that of her partner. This application illustrates the usefulness of using a TV-VAR model to detect changes in the dynamics in a system.

  10. Moose models with vanishing S parameter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casalbuoni, R.; De Curtis, S.; Dominici, D.

    2004-01-01

    In the linear moose framework, which naturally emerges in deconstruction models, we show that there is a unique solution for the vanishing of the S parameter at the lowest order in the weak interactions. We consider an effective gauge theory based on K SU(2) gauge groups, K+1 chiral fields, and electroweak groups SU(2) L and U(1) Y at the ends of the chain of the moose. S vanishes when a link in the moose chain is cut. As a consequence one has to introduce a dynamical nonlocal field connecting the two ends of the moose. Then the model acquires an additional custodial symmetry which protects this result. We examine also the possibility of a strong suppression of S through an exponential behavior of the link couplings as suggested by the Randall Sundrum metric

  11. Cosmological effects of scalar-photon couplings: dark energy and varyingModels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Avgoustidis, A. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Nottingham, University Park, Nottingham NG7 2RD (United Kingdom); Martins, C.J.A.P.; Monteiro, A.M.R.V.L.; Vielzeuf, P.E. [Centro de Astrofísica, Universidade do Porto, Rua das Estrelas, 4150-762 Porto (Portugal); Luzzi, G., E-mail: tavgoust@gmail.com, E-mail: Carlos.Martins@astro.up.pt, E-mail: mmonteiro@fc.up.pt, E-mail: up110370652@alunos.fc.up.pt, E-mail: gluzzi@lal.in2p3.fr [Laboratoire de l' Accélérateur Linéaire, Université de Paris-Sud, CNRS/IN2P3, Bâtiment 200, BP 34, 91898 Orsay Cedex (France)

    2014-06-01

    We study cosmological models involving scalar fields coupled to radiation and discuss their effect on the redshift evolution of the cosmic microwave background temperature, focusing on links with varying fundamental constants and dynamical dark energy. We quantify how allowing for the coupling of scalar fields to photons, and its important effect on luminosity distances, weakens current and future constraints on cosmological parameters. In particular, for evolving dark energy models, joint constraints on the dark energy equation of state combining BAO radial distance and SN luminosity distance determinations, will be strongly dominated by BAO. Thus, to fully exploit future SN data one must also independently constrain photon number non-conservation arising from the possible coupling of SN photons to the dark energy scalar field. We discuss how observational determinations of the background temperature at different redshifts can, in combination with distance measures data, set tight constraints on interactions between scalar fields and photons, thus breaking this degeneracy. We also discuss prospects for future improvements, particularly in the context of Euclid and the E-ELT and show that Euclid can, even on its own, provide useful dark energy constraints while allowing for photon number non-conservation.

  12. The varying cosmological constant: a new approximation to the Friedmann equations and universe model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Öztaş, Ahmet M.; Dil, Emre; Smith, Michael L.

    2018-05-01

    We investigate the time-dependent nature of the cosmological constant, Λ, of the Einstein Field Equation (EFE). Beginning with the Einstein-Hilbert action as our fundamental principle we develop a modified version of the EFE allowing the value of Λ to vary as a function of time, Λ(t), indirectly, for an expanding universe. We follow the evolving Λ presuming four-dimensional space-time and a flat universe geometry and present derivations of Λ(t) as functions of the Hubble constant, matter density, and volume changes which can be traced back to the radiation epoch. The models are more detailed descriptions of the Λ dependence on cosmological factors than previous, allowing calculations of the important parameters, Ωm and Ωr, to deep lookback times. Since we derive these without the need for extra dimensions or other special conditions our derivations are useful for model evaluation with astronomical data. This should aid resolution of several difficult problems of astronomy such as the best value for the Hubble constant at present and at recombination.

  13. Fuel element cladding state change mathematical model for a WWER-1000 plant operated in the mode of varying loading

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. N. Pelykh

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Main features of a fuel element cladding state change mathematical model for a WWER-1000 reactor plant operated in the mode of varying loading are listed. The integrated model is based on the energy creep theory, uses the finite element method for imultaneous solution of the fuel element heat conduction and mechanical deformation equa-tions. Proposed mathematical model allows us to determine the influence of the WWER-1000 regime parameters and fuel assembly design characteristics on the change of cladding properties under different loading conditions of normal operation, as well as the cladding limiting state at variable loading depending on the length, depth and number of cycles.

  14. Positive Almost Periodic Solutions for a Time-Varying Fishing Model with Delay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xia Li

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with a time-varying fishing model with delay. By means of the continuation theorem of coincidence degree theory, we prove that it has at least one positive almost periodic solution.

  15. Fitting Social Network Models Using Varying Truncation Stochastic Approximation MCMC Algorithm

    KAUST Repository

    Jin, Ick Hoon; Liang, Faming

    2013-01-01

    The exponential random graph model (ERGM) plays a major role in social network analysis. However, parameter estimation for the ERGM is a hard problem due to the intractability of its normalizing constant and the model degeneracy. The existing

  16. A Fragment-Cloud Model for Breakup of Asteroids with Varied Internal Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Lorien; Mathias, Donovan; Stokan, Ed; Brown, Peter

    2016-01-01

    As an asteroid descends toward Earth, it deposits energy in the atmosphere through aerodynamic drag and ablation. Asteroid impact risk assessments rely on energy deposition estimates to predict blast overpressures and ground damage that may result from an airburst, such as the one that occurred over Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013. The rates and altitudes at which energy is deposited along the entry trajectory depend upon how the bolide fragments, which in turn depends upon its internal structure and composition. In this work, we have developed an analytic asteroid fragmentation model to assess the atmospheric energy deposition of asteroids with a range of structures and compositions. The modeling approach combines successive fragmentation of larger independent pieces with aggregate debris clouds released with each fragmentation event. The model can vary the number and masses of fragments produced, the amount of mass released as debris clouds, the size-strength scaling used to increase the robustness of smaller fragments, and other parameters. The initial asteroid body can be seeded with a distribution of independent fragment sizes amid a remaining debris mass to represent loose rubble pile conglomerations, can be given an outer regolith later, or can be defined as a coherent or fractured monolith. This approach enables the model to represent a range of breakup behaviors and reproduce detailed energy deposition features such as multiple flares due to successive burst events, high-altitude regolith blow-off, or initial disruption of rubble piles followed by more energetic breakup of the constituent boulders. These capabilities provide a means to investigate sensitivities of ground damage to potential variations in asteroid structure.

  17. Models for setting ATM parameter values

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blaabjerg, Søren; Gravey, A.; Romæuf, L.

    1996-01-01

    essential to set traffic characteristic values that are relevant to the considered cell stream, and that ensure that the amount of non-conforming traffic is small. Using a queueing model representation for the GCRA formalism, several methods are available for choosing the traffic characteristics. This paper......In ATM networks, a user should negotiate at connection set-up a traffic contract which includes traffic characteristics and requested QoS. The traffic characteristics currently considered are the Peak Cell Rate, the Sustainable Cell Rate, the Intrinsic Burst Tolerance and the Cell Delay Variation...... (CDV) tolerance(s). The values taken by these traffic parameters characterize the so-called ''Worst Case Traffic'' that is used by CAC procedures for accepting a new connection and allocating resources to it. Conformance to the negotiated traffic characteristics is defined, at the ingress User...

  18. Mass balance model parameter transferability on a tropical glacier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurgiser, Wolfgang; Mölg, Thomas; Nicholson, Lindsey; Kaser, Georg

    2013-04-01

    The mass balance and melt water production of glaciers is of particular interest in the Peruvian Andes where glacier melt water has markedly increased water supply during the pronounced dry seasons in recent decades. However, the melt water contribution from glaciers is projected to decrease with appreciable negative impacts on the local society within the coming decades. Understanding mass balance processes on tropical glaciers is a prerequisite for modeling present and future glacier runoff. As a first step towards this aim we applied a process-based surface mass balance model in order to calculate observed ablation at two stakes in the ablation zone of Shallap Glacier (4800 m a.s.l., 9°S) in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Under the tropical climate, the snow line migrates very frequently across most of the ablation zone all year round causing large temporal and spatial variations of glacier surface conditions and related ablation. Consequently, pronounced differences between the two chosen stakes and the two years were observed. Hourly records of temperature, humidity, wind speed, short wave incoming radiation, and precipitation are available from an automatic weather station (AWS) on the moraine near the glacier for the hydrological years 2006/07 and 2007/08 while stake readings are available at intervals of between 14 to 64 days. To optimize model parameters, we used 1000 model simulations in which the most sensitive model parameters were varied randomly within their physically meaningful ranges. The modeled surface height change was evaluated against the two stake locations in the lower ablation zone (SH11, 4760m) and in the upper ablation zone (SH22, 4816m), respectively. The optimal parameter set for each point achieved good model skill but if we transfer the best parameter combination from one stake site to the other stake site model errors increases significantly. The same happens if we optimize the model parameters for each year individually and transfer

  19. Modeling polar cap F-region patches using time varying convection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sojka, J.J.; Bowline, M.D.; Schunk, R.W.; Decker, D.T.; Valladares, C.E.; Sheehan, R.; Anderson, D.N.; Heelis, R.A.

    1993-01-01

    Here the authors present the results of computerized simulations of the polar cap regions which were able to model the formation of polar cap patches. They used the Utah State University Time-Dependent Ionospheric Model (TDIM) and the Phillips Laboratory (PL) F-region models in this work. By allowing a time varying magnetospheric electric field in the models, they were able to generate the patches. This time varying field generates a convection in the ionosphere. This convection is similar to convective changes observed in the ionosphere at times of southward pointing interplanetary magnetic field, due to changes in the B y component of the IMF

  20. Parameter Estimation of Partial Differential Equation Models

    KAUST Repository

    Xun, Xiaolei; Cao, Jiguo; Mallick, Bani; Maity, Arnab; Carroll, Raymond J.

    2013-01-01

    PDEs used in practice have no analytic solutions, and can only be solved with numerical methods. Currently, methods for estimating PDE parameters require repeatedly solving PDEs numerically under thousands of candidate parameter values, and thus

  1. A two-locus model of spatially varying stabilizing or directional selection on a quantitative trait.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geroldinger, Ludwig; Bürger, Reinhard

    2014-06-01

    The consequences of spatially varying, stabilizing or directional selection on a quantitative trait in a subdivided population are studied. A deterministic two-locus two-deme model is employed to explore the effects of migration, the degree of divergent selection, and the genetic architecture, i.e., the recombination rate and ratio of locus effects, on the maintenance of genetic variation. The possible equilibrium configurations are determined as functions of the migration rate. They depend crucially on the strength of divergent selection and the genetic architecture. The maximum migration rates are investigated below which a stable fully polymorphic equilibrium or a stable single-locus polymorphism can exist. Under stabilizing selection, but with different optima in the demes, strong recombination may facilitate the maintenance of polymorphism. However usually, and in particular with directional selection in opposite direction, the critical migration rates are maximized by a concentrated genetic architecture, i.e., by a major locus and a tightly linked minor one. Thus, complementing previous work on the evolution of genetic architectures in subdivided populations subject to diversifying selection, it is shown that concentrated architectures may aid the maintenance of polymorphism. Conditions are obtained when this is the case. Finally, the dependence of the phenotypic variance, linkage disequilibrium, and various measures of local adaptation and differentiation on the parameters is elaborated. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Optimization of space-time material layout for 1D wave propagation with varying mass and stiffness parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jakob Søndergaard

    2010-01-01

    Results are presented for optimal layout of materials in the spatial and temporal domains for a 1D structure subjected to transient wave propagation. A general optimization procedure is outlined including derivation of design sensitivities for the case when the mass density and stiffness vary...

  3. Block Empirical Likelihood for Longitudinal Single-Index Varying-Coefficient Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunquan Song

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we consider a single-index varying-coefficient model with application to longitudinal data. In order to accommodate the within-group correlation, we apply the block empirical likelihood procedure to longitudinal single-index varying-coefficient model, and prove a nonparametric version of Wilks’ theorem which can be used to construct the block empirical likelihood confidence region with asymptotically correct coverage probability for the parametric component. In comparison with normal approximations, the proposed method does not require a consistent estimator for the asymptotic covariance matrix, making it easier to conduct inference for the model's parametric component. Simulations demonstrate how the proposed method works.

  4. Variation in plasmonic (electronic) spectral parameters of Pr (III) and Nd (III) with varied concentration of moderators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mishra, Shubha, E-mail: shubhamishra03@gmail.com [School of Studies in Physics, Vikram University, Ujjain (M. P.) (India); Limaye, S. N., E-mail: snl222@yahoo.co.in [Department of Chemistry, Dr. H.S. Gour University, A Central University, Sagar (M.P.) (India)

    2015-07-31

    It is said that the -4f shells behave as core and are least perturbed by changes around metal ion surrounding. However, there are evidences that-4f shells partially involved in direct moderator interaction. A systematic investigation on the plasmonic (electronic) spectral studies of some Rare Earths[RE(III).Mod] where, RE(III) = Pr(III),Nd(III) and Mod(moderator) = Y(III),La(III),Gd(III) and Lu(III), increased moderator concentration from 0.01 mol dm{sup −3} to 0.025 mol dm{sup −3} keeping the metal ion concentration at 0.01mol dm{sup −3} have been carried out. Variations in oscillator strengths (f), Judd-Ofelt parameters (T{sub λ}),inter-electronic repulsion Racah parameters (δE{sup k}),nephelauxetic ratio (β), radiative parameters (S{sub ED},A{sub T},β{sub R},T{sub R}). The values of oscillator strengths and Judd-Ofelt parameters have been discussed in the light of coordination number of RE(III) metal ions, denticity and basicity of the moderators. The [RE(III).Mod] bonding pattern has been studies in the light of the change in Racah parameters and nephelauxetic ratio.

  5. Spatially varying coefficient models in real estate: Eigenvector spatial filtering and alternative approaches

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Helbich, M; Griffith, D

    2016-01-01

    Real estate policies in urban areas require the recognition of spatial heterogeneity in housing prices to account for local settings. In response to the growing number of spatially varying coefficient models in housing applications, this study evaluated four models in terms of their spatial patterns

  6. Perfect fluid Bianchi Type-I cosmological models with time varying G ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. Bianchi Type-I cosmological models containing perfect fluid with time vary- ing G and Λ have been presented. The solutions obtained represent an expansion scalar θ bearing a constant ratio to the anisotropy in the direction of space-like unit vector λi. Of the two models obtained, one has negative vacuum energy ...

  7. Optimization of a simplified automobile finite element model using time varying injury metrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaewsky, James P; Danelson, Kerry A; Weaver, Caitlin M; Stitzel, Joel D

    2014-01-01

    In 2011, frontal crashes resulted in 55% of passenger car injuries with 10,277 fatalities and 866,000 injuries in the United States. To better understand frontal crash injury mechanisms, human body finite element models (FEMs) can be used to reconstruct Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network (CIREN) cases. A limitation of this method is the paucity of vehicle FEMs; therefore, we developed a functionally equivalent simplified vehicle model. The New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) data for our selected vehicle was from a frontal collision with Hybrid III (H3) Anthropomorphic Test Device (ATD) occupant. From NCAP test reports, the vehicle geometry was created and the H3 ATD was positioned. The material and component properties optimized using a variation study process were: steering column shear bolt fracture force and stroke resistance, seatbelt pretensioner force, frontal and knee bolster airbag stiffness, and belt friction through the D-ring. These parameters were varied using three successive Latin Hypercube Designs of Experiments with 130-200 simulations each. The H3 injury response was compared to the reported NCAP frontal test results for the head, chest and pelvis accelerations, and seat belt and femur forces. The phase, magnitude, and comprehensive error factors, from a Sprague and Geers analysis were calculated for each injury metric and then combined to determine the simulations with the best match to the crash test. The Sprague and Geers analyses typically yield error factors ranging from 0 to 1 with lower scores being more optimized. The total body injury response error factor for the most optimized simulation from each round of the variation study decreased from 0.466 to 0.395 to 0.360. This procedure to optimize vehicle FEMs is a valuable tool to conduct future CIREN case reconstructions in a variety of vehicles.

  8. Output-only cyclo-stationary linear-parameter time-varying stochastic subspace identification method for rotating machinery and spinning structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velazquez, Antonio; Swartz, R. Andrew

    2015-02-01

    stochastic subspace identification (SSI) and linear parameter time-varying (LPTV) techniques. Structural response is assumed to be stationary ambient excitation produced by a Gaussian (white) noise within the operative range bandwidth of the machinery or structure in study. ERA-OKID analysis is driven by correlation-function matrices from the stationary ambient response aiming to reduce noise effects. Singular value decomposition (SVD) and eigenvalue analysis are computed in a last stage to identify frequencies and complex-valued mode shapes. Proposed assumptions are carefully weighted to account for the uncertainty of the environment. A numerical example is carried out based a spinning finite element (SFE) model, and verified using ANSYS® Ver. 12. Finally, comments and observations are provided on how this subspace realization technique can be extended to the problem of modal-parameter identification using only ambient vibration data.

  9. Modeling of Electricity Demand for Azerbaijan: Time-Varying Coefficient Cointegration Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeyhun I. Mikayilov

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Recent literature has shown that electricity demand elasticities may not be constant over time and this has investigated using time-varying estimation methods. As accurate modeling of electricity demand is very important in Azerbaijan, which is a transitional country facing significant change in its economic outlook, we analyze whether the response of electricity demand to income and price is varying over time in this economy. We employed the Time-Varying Coefficient cointegration approach, a cutting-edge time-varying estimation method. We find evidence that income elasticity demonstrates sizeable variation for the period of investigation ranging from 0.48% to 0.56%. The study has some useful policy implications related to the income and price aspects of the electricity consumption in Azerbaijan.

  10. An approach to measure parameter sensitivity in watershed hydrologic modeling

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Abstract Hydrologic responses vary spatially and temporally according to watershed characteristics. In this study, the hydrologic models that we developed earlier...

  11. Application of regression model on stream water quality parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suleman, M.; Maqbool, F.; Malik, A.H.; Bhatti, Z.A.

    2012-01-01

    Statistical analysis was conducted to evaluate the effect of solid waste leachate from the open solid waste dumping site of Salhad on the stream water quality. Five sites were selected along the stream. Two sites were selected prior to mixing of leachate with the surface water. One was of leachate and other two sites were affected with leachate. Samples were analyzed for pH, water temperature, electrical conductivity (EC), total dissolved solids (TDS), Biological oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), dissolved oxygen (DO) and total bacterial load (TBL). In this study correlation coefficient r among different water quality parameters of various sites were calculated by using Pearson model and then average of each correlation between two parameters were also calculated, which shows TDS and EC and pH and BOD have significantly increasing r value, while temperature and TDS, temp and EC, DO and BL, DO and COD have decreasing r value. Single factor ANOVA at 5% level of significance was used which shows EC, TDS, TCL and COD were significantly differ among various sites. By the application of these two statistical approaches TDS and EC shows strongly positive correlation because the ions from the dissolved solids in water influence the ability of that water to conduct an electrical current. These two parameters significantly vary among 5 sites which are further confirmed by using linear regression. (author)

  12. A 3D Finite Element Model with Improved Spatial Resolution to Investigate the Effect of Varying Viscosity on Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blank, B.; van der Wal, W.; Pappa, F.; Ebbing, J.

    2017-12-01

    B. Blank1, H. Hu1, W. van der Wal1, F Pappa2, J. Ebbing21Delft University of Technology 2Christian-Albrechts-University of KielSince the beginning of the 2000's time-variable gravity data from GRACE has proved to be an effective method for mapping ice mass loss in Antarctica. However, Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) models are required to correct for GIA induced mass changes. While most GIA models have adopted an Earth model that only varies radially in parameters, it has long been clear that the Earth structure also varies with longitude and latitude. For this study a new global 3D GIA model has been developed within the finite element software package ABAQUS, which can be modified to operate on a spatial resolution down to 50 km locally. The model is being benchmarked against normal model models for surface loading. It will be used to investigate the effects of a 3D varying lithosphere and upper asthenosphere in Antarctica. Viscosity which will be computed from temperature estimates with laboratory based flow laws. A new 3D temperature map of the Antarctic lithosphere has been developed within ESA's GOCE+ project based on seismic data as well as on GOCE and GRACE inferred gravity gradients. Output from the GIA model with this new temperature estimates will be compared to that of 1D viscosity profiles and other recent 3D viscosity models based on seismic data. From these side to side comparisons we want to investigate the influence of the viscosity map on uplift rates and horizontal movement. Finally the results can be compared to GPS measurement to investigate the validity of all models.

  13. Handling Interfaces and Time-varying Properties in Radionuclide Transport Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robinson, Peter; Watson, Claire (Quintessa Ltd., Henley-on-Thames (United Kingdom))

    2010-12-15

    This report documents studies undertaken by Quintessa during 2010 in preparation for the SR-Site review that will be initiated by SSM in 2011. The studies relate to consequence analysis calculations, that is to the calculation of radionuclide release and transport if a canister is breached. A sister report documents modelling work undertaken to investigate the coupled processes relevant to copper corrosion and buffer erosion. The Q{sub eq} concept is an important part of SKB's current methodology for radionuclide transport using one-dimensional transport modelling; it is used in particular to model transport at the buffer/fracture interface. Quintessa's QPAC code has been used to investigate the Q{sub eq} approach and to explore the importance of heterogeneity in the fracture and spalling on the deposition hole surface. The key conclusions are that: - The basic approach to calculating Q{sub eq} values is sound and can be reproduced in QPAC. - The fracture resistance dominates over the diffusive resistance in the buffer except for the highest velocity cases. - Heterogeneity in the fracture, in terms of uncorrelated random variations in the fracture aperture, tends to reduce releases, so the use of a constant average aperture approach is conservative. - Narrow channels could lead to the same release as larger fractures with the same pore velocity, so a channel enhancement factor of sq root10 should be considered. - A spalling zone that increases the area of contact between flowing water and the buffer has the potential to increase the release significantly and changes the functional dependence of Q{sub eq}frac on the flowing velocity. Quintessa's AMBER software has previously been used to reproduce SKB's one-dimensional transport calculations and AMBER allows the use of time varying properties. This capability has been used to investigate the effects of glacial episodes on radionuclide transport. The main parameters that could be affected are

  14. Handling Interfaces and Time-varying Properties in Radionuclide Transport Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robinson, Peter; Watson, Claire

    2010-12-01

    This report documents studies undertaken by Quintessa during 2010 in preparation for the SR-Site review that will be initiated by SSM in 2011. The studies relate to consequence analysis calculations, that is to the calculation of radionuclide release and transport if a canister is breached. A sister report documents modelling work undertaken to investigate the coupled processes relevant to copper corrosion and buffer erosion. The Q eq concept is an important part of SKB's current methodology for radionuclide transport using one-dimensional transport modelling; it is used in particular to model transport at the buffer/fracture interface. Quintessa's QPAC code has been used to investigate the Q eq approach and to explore the importance of heterogeneity in the fracture and spalling on the deposition hole surface. The key conclusions are that: - The basic approach to calculating Q eq values is sound and can be reproduced in QPAC. - The fracture resistance dominates over the diffusive resistance in the buffer except for the highest velocity cases. - Heterogeneity in the fracture, in terms of uncorrelated random variations in the fracture aperture, tends to reduce releases, so the use of a constant average aperture approach is conservative. - Narrow channels could lead to the same release as larger fractures with the same pore velocity, so a channel enhancement factor of √10 should be considered. - A spalling zone that increases the area of contact between flowing water and the buffer has the potential to increase the release significantly and changes the functional dependence of Q eq frac on the flowing velocity. Quintessa's AMBER software has previously been used to reproduce SKB's one-dimensional transport calculations and AMBER allows the use of time varying properties. This capability has been used to investigate the effects of glacial episodes on radionuclide transport. The main parameters that could be affected are sorption coefficients and flow rates. For both

  15. Applicability of common stomatal conductance models in maize under varying soil moisture conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qiuling; He, Qijin; Zhou, Guangsheng

    2018-07-01

    In the context of climate warming, the varying soil moisture caused by precipitation pattern change will affect the applicability of stomatal conductance models, thereby affecting the simulation accuracy of carbon-nitrogen-water cycles in ecosystems. We studied the applicability of four common stomatal conductance models including Jarvis, Ball-Woodrow-Berry (BWB), Ball-Berry-Leuning (BBL) and unified stomatal optimization (USO) models based on summer maize leaf gas exchange data from a soil moisture consecutive decrease manipulation experiment. The results showed that the USO model performed best, followed by the BBL model, BWB model, and the Jarvis model performed worst under varying soil moisture conditions. The effects of soil moisture made a difference in the relative performance among the models. By introducing a water response function, the performance of the Jarvis, BWB, and USO models improved, which decreased the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) by 15.7%, 16.6% and 3.9%, respectively; however, the performance of the BBL model was negative, which increased the NRMSE by 5.3%. It was observed that the models of Jarvis, BWB, BBL and USO were applicable within different ranges of soil relative water content (i.e., 55%-65%, 56%-67%, 37%-79% and 37%-95%, respectively) based on the 95% confidence limits. Moreover, introducing a water response function, the applicability of the Jarvis and BWB models improved. The USO model performed best with or without introducing the water response function and was applicable under varying soil moisture conditions. Our results provide a basis for selecting appropriate stomatal conductance models under drought conditions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. LOW-MASS GALAXY FORMATION IN COSMOLOGICAL ADAPTIVE MESH REFINEMENT SIMULATIONS: THE EFFECTS OF VARYING THE SUB-GRID PHYSICS PARAMETERS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    ColIn, Pedro; Vazquez-Semadeni, Enrique; Avila-Reese, Vladimir; Valenzuela, Octavio; Ceverino, Daniel

    2010-01-01

    We present numerical simulations aimed at exploring the effects of varying the sub-grid physics parameters on the evolution and the properties of the galaxy formed in a low-mass dark matter halo (∼7 x 10 10 h -1 M sun at redshift z = 0). The simulations are run within a cosmological setting with a nominal resolution of 218 pc comoving and are stopped at z = 0.43. For simulations that cannot resolve individual molecular clouds, we propose the criterion that the threshold density for star formation, n SF , should be chosen such that the column density of the star-forming cells equals the threshold value for molecule formation, N ∼ 10 21 cm -2 , or ∼8 M sun pc -2 . In all of our simulations, an extended old/intermediate-age stellar halo and a more compact younger stellar disk are formed, and in most cases, the halo's specific angular momentum is slightly larger than that of the galaxy, and sensitive to the SF/feedback parameters. We found that a non-negligible fraction of the halo stars are formed in situ in a spheroidal distribution. Changes in the sub-grid physics parameters affect significantly and in a complex way the evolution and properties of the galaxy: (1) lower threshold densities n SF produce larger stellar effective radii R e , less peaked circular velocity curves V c (R), and greater amounts of low-density and hot gas in the disk mid-plane; (2) when stellar feedback is modeled by temporarily switching off radiative cooling in the star-forming regions, R e increases (by a factor of ∼2 in our particular model), the circular velocity curve becomes flatter, and a complex multi-phase gaseous disk structure develops; (3) a more efficient local conversion of gas mass to stars, measured by a stellar particle mass distribution biased toward larger values, increases the strength of the feedback energy injection-driving outflows and inducing burstier SF histories; (4) if feedback is too strong, gas loss by galactic outflows-which are easier to produce in low

  17. Models for estimating photosynthesis parameters from in situ production profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovač, Žarko; Platt, Trevor; Sathyendranath, Shubha; Antunović, Suzana

    2017-12-01

    The rate of carbon assimilation in phytoplankton primary production models is mathematically prescribed with photosynthesis irradiance functions, which convert a light flux (energy) into a material flux (carbon). Information on this rate is contained in photosynthesis parameters: the initial slope and the assimilation number. The exactness of parameter values is crucial for precise calculation of primary production. Here we use a model of the daily production profile based on a suite of photosynthesis irradiance functions and extract photosynthesis parameters from in situ measured daily production profiles at the Hawaii Ocean Time-series station Aloha. For each function we recover parameter values, establish parameter distributions and quantify model skill. We observe that the choice of the photosynthesis irradiance function to estimate the photosynthesis parameters affects the magnitudes of parameter values as recovered from in situ profiles. We also tackle the problem of parameter exchange amongst the models and the effect it has on model performance. All models displayed little or no bias prior to parameter exchange, but significant bias following parameter exchange. The best model performance resulted from using optimal parameter values. Model formulation was extended further by accounting for spectral effects and deriving a spectral analytical solution for the daily production profile. The daily production profile was also formulated with time dependent growing biomass governed by a growth equation. The work on parameter recovery was further extended by exploring how to extract photosynthesis parameters from information on watercolumn production. It was demonstrated how to estimate parameter values based on a linearization of the full analytical solution for normalized watercolumn production and from the solution itself, without linearization. The paper complements previous works on photosynthesis irradiance models by analysing the skill and consistency of

  18. Kosterlitz-Thouless transitions in simple spin-models with strongly varying vortex densities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Himbergen, J.E.J.M. van

    1985-01-01

    A generalized XY-model, consisting of a family of nearest neighbour potentials of varying shape, for classical planar spins on a two-dimensional square lattice is analysed by a combination of Migdal-Kadanoff real-space renormalization and Monte Carlo simulations on a sequence of finite lattices of

  19. Time-varying coefficient estimation in SURE models. Application to portfolio management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Casas, Isabel; Ferreira, Eva; Orbe, Susan

    This paper provides a detailed analysis of the asymptotic properties of a kernel estimator for a Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations model with time-varying coefficients (tv-SURE) under very general conditions. Theoretical results together with a simulation study differentiates the cases...

  20. Process model for ammonia volatilization from anaerobic swine lagoons incorporating varying wind speeds and biogas bubbling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ammonia volatilization from treatment lagoons varies widely with the total ammonia concentration, pH, temperature, suspended solids, atmospheric ammonia concentration above the water surface, and wind speed. Ammonia emissions were estimated with a process-based mechanistic model integrating ammonia ...

  1. The estimation of time-varying risks in asset pricing modelling using B-Spline method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurjannah; Solimun; Rinaldo, Adji

    2017-12-01

    Asset pricing modelling has been extensively studied in the past few decades to explore the risk-return relationship. The asset pricing literature typically assumed a static risk-return relationship. However, several studies found few anomalies in the asset pricing modelling which captured the presence of the risk instability. The dynamic model is proposed to offer a better model. The main problem highlighted in the dynamic model literature is that the set of conditioning information is unobservable and therefore some assumptions have to be made. Hence, the estimation requires additional assumptions about the dynamics of risk. To overcome this problem, the nonparametric estimators can also be used as an alternative for estimating risk. The flexibility of the nonparametric setting avoids the problem of misspecification derived from selecting a functional form. This paper investigates the estimation of time-varying asset pricing model using B-Spline, as one of nonparametric approach. The advantages of spline method is its computational speed and simplicity, as well as the clarity of controlling curvature directly. The three popular asset pricing models will be investigated namely CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model), Fama-French 3-factors model and Carhart 4-factors model. The results suggest that the estimated risks are time-varying and not stable overtime which confirms the risk instability anomaly. The results is more pronounced in Carhart’s 4-factors model.

  2. Autoregressive spatially varying coefficients model for predicting daily PM2.5 using VIIRS satellite AOT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schliep, E. M.; Gelfand, A. E.; Holland, D. M.

    2015-12-01

    There is considerable demand for accurate air quality information in human health analyses. The sparsity of ground monitoring stations across the United States motivates the need for advanced statistical models to predict air quality metrics, such as PM2.5, at unobserved sites. Remote sensing technologies have the potential to expand our knowledge of PM2.5 spatial patterns beyond what we can predict from current PM2.5 monitoring networks. Data from satellites have an additional advantage in not requiring extensive emission inventories necessary for most atmospheric models that have been used in earlier data fusion models for air pollution. Statistical models combining monitoring station data with satellite-obtained aerosol optical thickness (AOT), also referred to as aerosol optical depth (AOD), have been proposed in the literature with varying levels of success in predicting PM2.5. The benefit of using AOT is that satellites provide complete gridded spatial coverage. However, the challenges involved with using it in fusion models are (1) the correlation between the two data sources varies both in time and in space, (2) the data sources are temporally and spatially misaligned, and (3) there is extensive missingness in the monitoring data and also in the satellite data due to cloud cover. We propose a hierarchical autoregressive spatially varying coefficients model to jointly model the two data sources, which addresses the foregoing challenges. Additionally, we offer formal model comparison for competing models in terms of model fit and out of sample prediction of PM2.5. The models are applied to daily observations of PM2.5 and AOT in the summer months of 2013 across the conterminous United States. Most notably, during this time period, we find small in-sample improvement incorporating AOT into our autoregressive model but little out-of-sample predictive improvement.

  3. Optimizing incomplete sample designs for item response model parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Linden, Willem J.

    Several models for optimizing incomplete sample designs with respect to information on the item parameters are presented. The following cases are considered: (1) known ability parameters; (2) unknown ability parameters; (3) item sets with multiple ability scales; and (4) response models with

  4. Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Chemical Kinetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkel, Brian

    2011-01-01

    We discuss the need for devoting time in differential equations courses to modelling and the completion of the modelling process with efforts to estimate the parameters in the models using data. We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of chemical reactions of order n, where n = 0, 1, 2, and apply more general…

  5. New Inference Procedures for Semiparametric Varying-Coefficient Partially Linear Cox Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunbei Ma

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In biomedical research, one major objective is to identify risk factors and study their risk impacts, as this identification can help clinicians to both properly make a decision and increase efficiency of treatments and resource allocation. A two-step penalized-based procedure is proposed to select linear regression coefficients for linear components and to identify significant nonparametric varying-coefficient functions for semiparametric varying-coefficient partially linear Cox models. It is shown that the penalized-based resulting estimators of the linear regression coefficients are asymptotically normal and have oracle properties, and the resulting estimators of the varying-coefficient functions have optimal convergence rates. A simulation study and an empirical example are presented for illustration.

  6. Study on Parameters Modeling of Wind Turbines Using SCADA Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yonglong YAN

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Taking the advantage of the current massive monitoring data from Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA system of wind farm, it is of important significance for anomaly detection, early warning and fault diagnosis to build the data model of state parameters of wind turbines (WTs. The operational conditions and the relationships between the state parameters of wind turbines are complex. It is difficult to establish the model of state parameter accurately, and the modeling method of state parameters of wind turbines considering parameter selection is proposed. Firstly, by analyzing the characteristic of SCADA data, a reasonable range of data and monitoring parameters are chosen. Secondly, neural network algorithm is adapted, and the selection method of input parameters in the model is presented. Generator bearing temperature and cooling air temperature are regarded as target parameters, and the two models are built and input parameters of the models are selected, respectively. Finally, the parameter selection method in this paper and the method using genetic algorithm-partial least square (GA-PLS are analyzed comparatively, and the results show that the proposed methods are correct and effective. Furthermore, the modeling of two parameters illustrate that the method in this paper can applied to other state parameters of wind turbines.

  7. Modeling and Analysis of a Piezoelectric Energy Harvester with Varying Cross-Sectional Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maiara Rosa

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports on the modeling and on the experimental verification of electromechanically coupled beams with varying cross-sectional area for piezoelectric energy harvesting. The governing equations are formulated using the Rayleigh-Ritz method and Euler-Bernoulli assumptions. A load resistance is considered in the electrical domain for the estimate of the electric power output of each geometric configuration. The model is first verified against the analytical results for a rectangular bimorph with tip mass reported in the literature. The experimental verification of the model is also reported for a tapered bimorph cantilever with tip mass. The effects of varying cross-sectional area and tip mass on the electromechanical behavior of piezoelectric energy harvesters are also discussed. An issue related to the estimation of the optimal load resistance (that gives the maximum power output on beam shape optimization problems is also discussed.

  8. Error propagation of partial least squares for parameters optimization in NIR modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Chenzhao; Dai, Shengyun; Qiao, Yanjiang; Wu, Zhisheng

    2018-03-05

    A novel methodology is proposed to determine the error propagation of partial least-square (PLS) for parameters optimization in near-infrared (NIR) modeling. The parameters include spectral pretreatment, latent variables and variable selection. In this paper, an open source dataset (corn) and a complicated dataset (Gardenia) were used to establish PLS models under different modeling parameters. And error propagation of modeling parameters for water quantity in corn and geniposide quantity in Gardenia were presented by both type І and type II error. For example, when variable importance in the projection (VIP), interval partial least square (iPLS) and backward interval partial least square (BiPLS) variable selection algorithms were used for geniposide in Gardenia, compared with synergy interval partial least squares (SiPLS), the error weight varied from 5% to 65%, 55% and 15%. The results demonstrated how and what extent the different modeling parameters affect error propagation of PLS for parameters optimization in NIR modeling. The larger the error weight, the worse the model. Finally, our trials finished a powerful process in developing robust PLS models for corn and Gardenia under the optimal modeling parameters. Furthermore, it could provide a significant guidance for the selection of modeling parameters of other multivariate calibration models. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  9. Error propagation of partial least squares for parameters optimization in NIR modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Chenzhao; Dai, Shengyun; Qiao, Yanjiang; Wu, Zhisheng

    2018-03-01

    A novel methodology is proposed to determine the error propagation of partial least-square (PLS) for parameters optimization in near-infrared (NIR) modeling. The parameters include spectral pretreatment, latent variables and variable selection. In this paper, an open source dataset (corn) and a complicated dataset (Gardenia) were used to establish PLS models under different modeling parameters. And error propagation of modeling parameters for water quantity in corn and geniposide quantity in Gardenia were presented by both type І and type II error. For example, when variable importance in the projection (VIP), interval partial least square (iPLS) and backward interval partial least square (BiPLS) variable selection algorithms were used for geniposide in Gardenia, compared with synergy interval partial least squares (SiPLS), the error weight varied from 5% to 65%, 55% and 15%. The results demonstrated how and what extent the different modeling parameters affect error propagation of PLS for parameters optimization in NIR modeling. The larger the error weight, the worse the model. Finally, our trials finished a powerful process in developing robust PLS models for corn and Gardenia under the optimal modeling parameters. Furthermore, it could provide a significant guidance for the selection of modeling parameters of other multivariate calibration models.

  10. Modeling the time-varying and level-dependent effects of the medial olivocochlear reflex in auditory nerve responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smalt, Christopher J; Heinz, Michael G; Strickland, Elizabeth A

    2014-04-01

    The medial olivocochlear reflex (MOCR) has been hypothesized to provide benefit for listening in noisy environments. This advantage can be attributed to a feedback mechanism that suppresses auditory nerve (AN) firing in continuous background noise, resulting in increased sensitivity to a tone or speech. MOC neurons synapse on outer hair cells (OHCs), and their activity effectively reduces cochlear gain. The computational model developed in this study implements the time-varying, characteristic frequency (CF) and level-dependent effects of the MOCR within the framework of a well-established model for normal and hearing-impaired AN responses. A second-order linear system was used to model the time-course of the MOCR using physiological data in humans. The stimulus-level-dependent parameters of the efferent pathway were estimated by fitting AN sensitivity derived from responses in decerebrate cats using a tone-in-noise paradigm. The resulting model uses a binaural, time-varying, CF-dependent, level-dependent OHC gain reduction for both ipsilateral and contralateral stimuli that improves detection of a tone in noise, similarly to recorded AN responses. The MOCR may be important for speech recognition in continuous background noise as well as for protection from acoustic trauma. Further study of this model and its efferent feedback loop may improve our understanding of the effects of sensorineural hearing loss in noisy situations, a condition in which hearing aids currently struggle to restore normal speech perception.

  11. Effects of varying the step particle distribution on a probabilistic transport model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bouzat, S.; Farengo, R.

    2005-01-01

    The consequences of varying the step particle distribution on a probabilistic transport model, which captures the basic features of transport in plasmas and was recently introduced in Ref. 1 [B. Ph. van Milligen et al., Phys. Plasmas 11, 2272 (2004)], are studied. Different superdiffusive transport mechanisms generated by a family of distributions with algebraic decays (Tsallis distributions) are considered. It is observed that the possibility of changing the superdiffusive transport mechanism improves the flexibility of the model for describing different situations. The use of the model to describe the low (L) and high (H) confinement modes is also analyzed

  12. Adaptation of the concept of varying time of concentration within flood modelling: Theoretical and empirical investigations across the Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michailidi, Eleni Maria; Antoniadi, Sylvia; Koukouvinos, Antonis; Bacchi, Baldassare; Efstratiadis, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    The time of concentration, tc, is a key hydrological concept and often is an essential parameter of rainfall-runoff modelling, which has been traditionally tackled as a characteristic property of the river basin. However, both theoretical proof and empirical evidence imply that tc is a hydraulic quantity that depends on flow, and thus it should be considered as variable and not as constant parameter. Using a kinematic method approach, easily implemented in GIS environment, we first illustrate that the relationship between tc and the effective rainfall produced over the catchment is well-approximated by a power-type law, the exponent of which is associated with the slope of the longest flow path of the river basin. Next, we take advantage of this relationship to adapt the concept of varying time of concentration within flood modelling, and particularly the well-known SCS-CN approach. In this context, the initial abstraction ratio is also considered varying, while the propagation of the effective rainfall is employed through a parametric unit hydrograph, the shape of which is dynamically adjusted according to the runoff produced during the flood event. The above framework is tested in a number of Mediterranean river basins in Greece, Italy and Cyprus, ensuring faithful representation of most of the observed flood events. Based on the outcomes of this extended analysis, we provide guidance for employing this methodology for flood design studies in ungauged basins.

  13. Continuous time modelling with individually varying time intervals for oscillating and non-oscillating processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voelkle, Manuel C; Oud, Johan H L

    2013-02-01

    When designing longitudinal studies, researchers often aim at equal intervals. In practice, however, this goal is hardly ever met, with different time intervals between assessment waves and different time intervals between individuals being more the rule than the exception. One of the reasons for the introduction of continuous time models by means of structural equation modelling has been to deal with irregularly spaced assessment waves (e.g., Oud & Delsing, 2010). In the present paper we extend the approach to individually varying time intervals for oscillating and non-oscillating processes. In addition, we show not only that equal intervals are unnecessary but also that it can be advantageous to use unequal sampling intervals, in particular when the sampling rate is low. Two examples are provided to support our arguments. In the first example we compare a continuous time model of a bivariate coupled process with varying time intervals to a standard discrete time model to illustrate the importance of accounting for the exact time intervals. In the second example the effect of different sampling intervals on estimating a damped linear oscillator is investigated by means of a Monte Carlo simulation. We conclude that it is important to account for individually varying time intervals, and encourage researchers to conceive of longitudinal studies with different time intervals within and between individuals as an opportunity rather than a problem. © 2012 The British Psychological Society.

  14. Modeling the time--varying subjective quality of HTTP video streams with rate adaptations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chao; Choi, Lark Kwon; de Veciana, Gustavo; Caramanis, Constantine; Heath, Robert W; Bovik, Alan C

    2014-05-01

    Newly developed hypertext transfer protocol (HTTP)-based video streaming technologies enable flexible rate-adaptation under varying channel conditions. Accurately predicting the users' quality of experience (QoE) for rate-adaptive HTTP video streams is thus critical to achieve efficiency. An important aspect of understanding and modeling QoE is predicting the up-to-the-moment subjective quality of a video as it is played, which is difficult due to hysteresis effects and nonlinearities in human behavioral responses. This paper presents a Hammerstein-Wiener model for predicting the time-varying subjective quality (TVSQ) of rate-adaptive videos. To collect data for model parameterization and validation, a database of longer duration videos with time-varying distortions was built and the TVSQs of the videos were measured in a large-scale subjective study. The proposed method is able to reliably predict the TVSQ of rate adaptive videos. Since the Hammerstein-Wiener model has a very simple structure, the proposed method is suitable for online TVSQ prediction in HTTP-based streaming.

  15. Determining Time-Varying Drivers of Spot Oil Price in a Dynamic Model Averaging Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krzysztof Drachal

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This article presents results from modelling spot oil prices by Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA. First, based on a literature review and availability of data, the following oil price drivers have been selected: stock prices indices, stock prices volatility index, exchange rates, global economic activity, interest rates, supply and demand indicators and inventories level. Next, they have been included as explanatory variables in various DMA models with different initial parameters. Monthly data between January 1986 and December 2015 has been analyzed. Several variations of DMA models have been constructed, because DMA requires the initial setting of certain parameters. Interestingly, DMA has occurred to be robust to setting different values to these parameters. It has also occurred that the quality of prediction is the highest for the model with the drivers solely connected with the stock markets behavior. Drivers connected with macroeconomic fundamental indicators have not been found so important. This observation can serve as an argument favoring the hypothesis of the increasing financialization of the oil market, at least in the short-term period. The predictions from other, slightly different modelling variations based on DMA methodology, have happened to be consistent with each other in general. Many constructed models have outperformed alternative forecasting methods. It has also been found that normalization of the initial data, although not necessary for DMA from the theoretical point of view, significantly improves the quality of prediction.

  16. Multi-Step Time Series Forecasting with an Ensemble of Varied Length Mixture Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouyang, Yicun; Yin, Hujun

    2018-05-01

    Many real-world problems require modeling and forecasting of time series, such as weather temperature, electricity demand, stock prices and foreign exchange (FX) rates. Often, the tasks involve predicting over a long-term period, e.g. several weeks or months. Most existing time series models are inheritably for one-step prediction, that is, predicting one time point ahead. Multi-step or long-term prediction is difficult and challenging due to the lack of information and uncertainty or error accumulation. The main existing approaches, iterative and independent, either use one-step model recursively or treat the multi-step task as an independent model. They generally perform poorly in practical applications. In this paper, as an extension of the self-organizing mixture autoregressive (AR) model, the varied length mixture (VLM) models are proposed to model and forecast time series over multi-steps. The key idea is to preserve the dependencies between the time points within the prediction horizon. Training data are segmented to various lengths corresponding to various forecasting horizons, and the VLM models are trained in a self-organizing fashion on these segments to capture these dependencies in its component AR models of various predicting horizons. The VLM models form a probabilistic mixture of these varied length models. A combination of short and long VLM models and an ensemble of them are proposed to further enhance the prediction performance. The effectiveness of the proposed methods and their marked improvements over the existing methods are demonstrated through a number of experiments on synthetic data, real-world FX rates and weather temperatures.

  17. Parameter Optimisation for the Behaviour of Elastic Models over Time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mosegaard, Jesper

    2004-01-01

    Optimisation of parameters for elastic models is essential for comparison or finding equivalent behaviour of elastic models when parameters cannot simply be transferred or converted. This is the case with a large range of commonly used elastic models. In this paper we present a general method tha...

  18. An automatic and effective parameter optimization method for model tuning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Zhang

    2015-11-01

    simulation results show that the optimum combination of these parameters determined using this method is able to improve the model's overall performance by 9 %. The proposed methodology and software framework can be easily applied to other GCMs to speed up the model development process, especially regarding unavoidable comprehensive parameter tuning during the model development stage.

  19. The Design and Its Application in Secure Communication and Image Encryption of a New Lorenz-Like System with Varying Parameter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lilian Huang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A new Lorenz-like chaotic system with varying parameter is proposed by adding a state feedback function. The structure of the new designed system is simple and has more complex dynamic behaviors. The chaos behavior of the new system is studied by theoretical analysis and numerical simulation. And the bifurcation diagram shows a chaos-cycle-chaos evolution when the new parameter changes. Then a new synchronization scheme by a single state variable drive is given based on the new system and a chaotic parameter modulation digital secure communication system is also constructed. The results of simulation demonstrate that the new proposed system could be well applied in secure communication. Otherwise, based on the new system, the encryption and decryption of image could be achieved also.

  20. Identifying the connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Guse

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In hydrological models, parameters are used to represent the time-invariant characteristics of catchments and to capture different aspects of hydrological response. Hence, model parameters need to be identified based on their role in controlling the hydrological behaviour. For the identification of meaningful parameter values, multiple and complementary performance criteria are used that compare modelled and measured discharge time series. The reliability of the identification of hydrologically meaningful model parameter values depends on how distinctly a model parameter can be assigned to one of the performance criteria. To investigate this, we introduce the new concept of connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria. The connective strength assesses the intensity in the interrelationship between model parameters and performance criteria in a bijective way. In our analysis of connective strength, model simulations are carried out based on a latin hypercube sampling. Ten performance criteria including Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE, Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE and its three components (alpha, beta and r as well as RSR (the ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation for different segments of the flow duration curve (FDC are calculated. With a joint analysis of two regression tree (RT approaches, we derive how a model parameter is connected to different performance criteria. At first, RTs are constructed using each performance criterion as the target variable to detect the most relevant model parameters for each performance criterion. Secondly, RTs are constructed using each parameter as the target variable to detect which performance criteria are impacted by changes in the values of one distinct model parameter. Based on this, appropriate performance criteria are identified for each model parameter. In this study, a high bijective connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria

  1. Estimation and Properties of a Time-Varying GQARCH(1,1-M Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sofia Anyfantaki

    2011-01-01

    analysis of these models computationally infeasible. This paper outlines the issues and suggests to employ a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm which allows the calculation of a classical estimator via the simulated EM algorithm or a simulated Bayesian solution in only ( computational operations, where is the sample size. Furthermore, the theoretical dynamic properties of a time-varying GQARCH(1,1-M are derived. We discuss them and apply the suggested Bayesian estimation to three major stock markets.

  2. Delay-Dependent Asymptotic Stability of Cohen-Grossberg Models with Multiple Time-Varying Delays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaofeng Liao

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Dynamical behavior of a class of Cohen-Grossberg models with multiple time-varying delays is studied in detail. Sufficient delay-dependent criteria to ensure local and global asymptotic stabilities of the equilibrium of this network are derived by constructing suitable Lyapunov functionals. The obtained conditions are shown to be less conservative and restrictive than those reported in the known literature. Some numerical examples are included to demonstrate our results.

  3. Specification and testing of Multiplicative Time-Varying GARCH models with applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amado, Cristina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    2017-01-01

    In this article, we develop a specification technique for building multiplicative time-varying GARCH models of Amado and Teräsvirta (2008, 2013). The variance is decomposed into an unconditional and a conditional component such that the unconditional variance component is allowed to evolve smooth...... is illustrated in practice with two real examples: an empirical application to daily exchange rate returns and another one to daily coffee futures returns....

  4. Modelling the solidification of ductile cast iron parts with varying wall thicknesses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerre, Mathias Karsten; Tiedje, Niels Skat; Thorborg, Jesper

    2015-01-01

    ] with a 2D FE solution of the heat conduction equation is developed in an in-house code and model parameters are calibrated using experimental data from representative castings made of ductile cast iron. The main focus is on the influence of casting thickness and resulting local cooling conditions...

  5. Resuspension parameters for TRAC dispersion model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Langer, G.

    1987-01-01

    Resuspension factors for the wind erosion of soil contaminated with plutonium are necessary to run the Rocky Flats Plant Terrain Responsive Atmospheric Code (TRAC). The model predicts the dispersion and resulting population dose due to accidental plutonium releases

  6. A simple analytical model for dynamics of time-varying target leverage ratios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, C. F.; Hui, C. H.

    2012-03-01

    In this paper we have formulated a simple theoretical model for the dynamics of the time-varying target leverage ratio of a firm under some assumptions based upon empirical observations. In our theoretical model the time evolution of the target leverage ratio of a firm can be derived self-consistently from a set of coupled Ito's stochastic differential equations governing the leverage ratios of an ensemble of firms by the nonlinear Fokker-Planck equation approach. The theoretically derived time paths of the target leverage ratio bear great resemblance to those used in the time-dependent stationary-leverage (TDSL) model [Hui et al., Int. Rev. Financ. Analy. 15, 220 (2006)]. Thus, our simple model is able to provide a theoretical foundation for the selected time paths of the target leverage ratio in the TDSL model. We also examine how the pace of the adjustment of a firm's target ratio, the volatility of the leverage ratio and the current leverage ratio affect the dynamics of the time-varying target leverage ratio. Hence, with the proposed dynamics of the time-dependent target leverage ratio, the TDSL model can be readily applied to generate the default probabilities of individual firms and to assess the default risk of the firms.

  7. Summary of the DREAM8 Parameter Estimation Challenge: Toward Parameter Identification for Whole-Cell Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan R Karr

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Whole-cell models that explicitly represent all cellular components at the molecular level have the potential to predict phenotype from genotype. However, even for simple bacteria, whole-cell models will contain thousands of parameters, many of which are poorly characterized or unknown. New algorithms are needed to estimate these parameters and enable researchers to build increasingly comprehensive models. We organized the Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods (DREAM 8 Whole-Cell Parameter Estimation Challenge to develop new parameter estimation algorithms for whole-cell models. We asked participants to identify a subset of parameters of a whole-cell model given the model's structure and in silico "experimental" data. Here we describe the challenge, the best performing methods, and new insights into the identifiability of whole-cell models. We also describe several valuable lessons we learned toward improving future challenges. Going forward, we believe that collaborative efforts supported by inexpensive cloud computing have the potential to solve whole-cell model parameter estimation.

  8. SEIR Model of Rumor Spreading in Online Social Network with Varying Total Population Size

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dong Suyalatu; Deng Yan-Bin; Huang Yong-Chang

    2017-01-01

    Based on the infectious disease model with disease latency, this paper proposes a new model for the rumor spreading process in online social network. In this paper what we establish an SEIR rumor spreading model to describe the online social network with varying total number of users and user deactivation rate. We calculate the exact equilibrium points and reproduction number for this model. Furthermore, we perform the rumor spreading process in the online social network with increasing population size based on the original real world Facebook network. The simulation results indicate that the SEIR model of rumor spreading in online social network with changing total number of users can accurately reveal the inherent characteristics of rumor spreading process in online social network . (paper)

  9. SEIR Model of Rumor Spreading in Online Social Network with Varying Total Population Size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Suyalatu; Deng, Yan-Bin; Huang, Yong-Chang

    2017-10-01

    Based on the infectious disease model with disease latency, this paper proposes a new model for the rumor spreading process in online social network. In this paper what we establish an SEIR rumor spreading model to describe the online social network with varying total number of users and user deactivation rate. We calculate the exact equilibrium points and reproduction number for this model. Furthermore, we perform the rumor spreading process in the online social network with increasing population size based on the original real world Facebook network. The simulation results indicate that the SEIR model of rumor spreading in online social network with changing total number of users can accurately reveal the inherent characteristics of rumor spreading process in online social network. Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 11275017 and 11173028

  10. Spatially-varying surface roughness and ground-level air quality in an operational dispersion model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnes, M.J.; Brade, T.K.; MacKenzie, A.R.; Whyatt, J.D.; Carruthers, D.J.; Stocker, J.; Cai, X.; Hewitt, C.N.

    2014-01-01

    Urban form controls the overall aerodynamic roughness of a city, and hence plays a significant role in how air flow interacts with the urban landscape. This paper reports improved model performance resulting from the introduction of variable surface roughness in the operational air-quality model ADMS-Urban (v3.1). We then assess to what extent pollutant concentrations can be reduced solely through local reductions in roughness. The model results suggest that reducing surface roughness in a city centre can increase ground-level pollutant concentrations, both locally in the area of reduced roughness and downwind of that area. The unexpected simulation of increased ground-level pollutant concentrations implies that this type of modelling should be used with caution for urban planning and design studies looking at ventilation of pollution. We expect the results from this study to be relevant for all atmospheric dispersion models with urban-surface parameterisations based on roughness. -- Highlights: • Spatially variable roughness improved performance of an operational model. • Scenario modelling explored effect of reduced roughness on air pollution. • Reducing surface roughness can increase modelled ground-level pollution. • Damped vertical mixing outweighs increased horizontal advection in model study. • Result should hold for any model with a land-surface coupling based on roughness. -- Spatially varying roughness improves model simulations of urban air pollutant dispersion. Reducing roughness does not always decrease ground-level pollution concentrations

  11. Modeling Influenza Transmission Using Environmental Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soebiyanto, Radina P.; Kiang, Richard K.

    2010-01-01

    Influenza is an acute viral respiratory disease that has significant mortality, morbidity and economic burden worldwide. It infects approximately 5-15% of the world population, and causes 250,000 500,000 deaths each year. The role of environments on influenza is often drawn upon the latitude variability of influenza seasonality pattern. In regions with temperate climate, influenza epidemics exhibit clear seasonal pattern that peak during winter months, but it is not as evident in the tropics. Toward this end, we developed mathematical model and forecasting capabilities for influenza in regions characterized by warm climate Hong Kong (China) and Maricopa County (Arizona, USA). The best model for Hong Kong uses Land Surface Temperature (LST), precipitation and relative humidity as its covariates. Whereas for Maricopa County, we found that weekly influenza cases can be best modelled using mean air temperature as its covariates. Our forecasts can further guides public health organizations in targeting influenza prevention and control measures such as vaccination.

  12. Marginalized adaptive particle filtering for nonlinear models with unknown time-varying noise parameters

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ökzan, E.; Šmídl, Václav; Saha, S.; Lundquist, C.; Gustafsson, F.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 49, č. 6 (2013), s. 1566-1575 ISSN 0005-1098 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP102/11/0437 Keywords : Unknown Noise Statistics * Adaptive Filtering * Marginalized Particle Filter * Bayesian Conjugate prior Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory Impact factor: 3.132, year: 2013 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/AS/smidl-0393047.pdf

  13. Quantifying Key Climate Parameter Uncertainties Using an Earth System Model with a Dynamic 3D Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, R.; Sriver, R. L.; Goes, M. P.; Urban, N.; Matthews, D.; Haran, M.; Keller, K.

    2011-12-01

    Climate projections hinge critically on uncertain climate model parameters such as climate sensitivity, vertical ocean diffusivity and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol forcings. Climate sensitivity is defined as the equilibrium global mean temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Vertical ocean diffusivity parameterizes sub-grid scale ocean vertical mixing processes. These parameters are typically estimated using Intermediate Complexity Earth System Models (EMICs) that lack a full 3D representation of the oceans, thereby neglecting the effects of mixing on ocean dynamics and meridional overturning. We improve on these studies by employing an EMIC with a dynamic 3D ocean model to estimate these parameters. We carry out historical climate simulations with the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) varying parameters that affect climate sensitivity, vertical ocean mixing, and effects of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols. We use a Bayesian approach whereby the likelihood of each parameter combination depends on how well the model simulates surface air temperature and upper ocean heat content. We use a Gaussian process emulator to interpolate the model output to an arbitrary parameter setting. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to estimate the posterior probability distribution function (pdf) of these parameters. We explore the sensitivity of the results to prior assumptions about the parameters. In addition, we estimate the relative skill of different observations to constrain the parameters. We quantify the uncertainty in parameter estimates stemming from climate variability, model and observational errors. We explore the sensitivity of key decision-relevant climate projections to these parameters. We find that climate sensitivity and vertical ocean diffusivity estimates are consistent with previously published results. The climate sensitivity pdf is strongly affected by the prior assumptions, and by the scaling

  14. Dynamics in the Parameter Space of a Neuron Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulo, C. Rech

    2012-06-01

    Some two-dimensional parameter-space diagrams are numerically obtained by considering the largest Lyapunov exponent for a four-dimensional thirteen-parameter Hindmarsh—Rose neuron model. Several different parameter planes are considered, and it is shown that depending on the combination of parameters, a typical scenario can be preserved: for some choice of two parameters, the parameter plane presents a comb-shaped chaotic region embedded in a large periodic region. It is also shown that there exist regions close to these comb-shaped chaotic regions, separated by the comb teeth, organizing themselves in period-adding bifurcation cascades.

  15. Modeling passive power generation in a temporally-varying temperature environment via thermoelectrics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bomberger, Cory C.; Attia, Peter M.; Prasad, Ajay K.; Zide, Joshua M.O.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a model to predict the power generation of a thermoelectric generator in a temporally-varying temperature environment. The model employs a thermoelectric plate sandwiched between two different heat exchangers to convert a temporal temperature gradient in the environment to a spatial temperature gradient within the device suitable for thermoelectric power generation. The two heat exchangers are designed such that their temperatures respond to a change in the environment's temperature at different rates which sets up a temperature differential across the thermoelectric and results in power generation. In this model, radiative and convective heat transfer between the device and its surroundings, and heat flow between the two heat exchangers across the thermoelectric plate are considered. The model is simulated for power generation in Death Valley, CA during the summer using the diurnal variation of air temperature and radiative exchange with the sun and night sky as heat sources and sinks. The optimization of power generation via scaling the device size is discussed. Additional applications of this device are considered. -- Highlights: • Thermoelectric power generation with time-varying temperature is modeled. • The ability to generate power without a natural spatial gradient is demonstrated. • Time dependent heat-transfer and differential heat flow rates are considered. • Optimization of power generation via scaling the device size is discussed

  16. Advances in Modelling, System Identification and Parameter ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Authors show, using numerical simulation for two system functions, the improvement in percentage normalized ... of nonlinear systems. The approach is to use multiple linearizing models fitted along the operating trajectories. ... over emphasized in the light of present day high level of research activity in the field of aerospace ...

  17. A behavioral asset pricing model with a time-varying second moment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiarella, Carl; He Xuezhong; Wang, Duo

    2006-01-01

    We develop a simple behavioral asset pricing model with fundamentalists and chartists in order to study price behavior in financial markets when chartists estimate both conditional mean and variance by using a weighted averaging process. Through a stability, bifurcation, and normal form analysis, the market impact of the weighting process and time-varying second moment are examined. It is found that the fundamental price becomes stable (unstable) when the activities from both types of traders are balanced (unbalanced). When the fundamental price becomes unstable, the weighting process leads to different price dynamics, depending on whether the chartists act as either trend followers or contrarians. It is also found that a time-varying second moment of the chartists does not change the stability of the fundamental price, but it does influence the stability of the bifurcations. The bifurcation becomes stable (unstable) when the chartists are more (less) concerned about the market risk characterized by the time-varying second moment. Different routes to complicated price dynamics are also observed. The analysis provides an analytical foundation for the statistical analysis of the corresponding stochastic version of this type of behavioral model

  18. Modeling the Plasma Flow in the Inner Heliosheath with a Spatially Varying Compression Ratio

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nicolaou, G. [Swedish Institute of Space Physics, Kiruna (Sweden); Livadiotis, G. [Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio, Texas (United States)

    2017-03-20

    We examine a semi-analytical non-magnetic model of the termination shock location previously developed by Exarhos and Moussas. In their study, the plasma flow beyond the shock is considered incompressible and irrotational, thus the flow potential is analytically derived from the Laplace equation. Here we examine the characteristics of the downstream flow in the heliosheath in order to resolve several inconsistencies existing in the Exarhos and Moussas model. In particular, the model is modified in order to be consistent with the Rankine–Hugoniot jump conditions and the geometry of the termination shock. It is shown that a shock compression ratio varying along the latitude can lead to physically correct results. We describe the new model and present several simplified examples for a nearly spherical, strong termination shock. Under those simplifications, the upstream plasma is nearly adiabatic for large (∼100 AU) heliosheath thickness.

  19. A mathematical model for batch and continuous thickening of flocculent suspensions in vessels with varying section

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buerger, R.; Damasceno, J.J.R.; Karlesen, K.H.

    2001-10-01

    The phenomenological theory of continuous thickening of flocculated suspensions in an ideal cylindrical thickener is extended to vessels having varying cross-section, including divergent or convergent conical vessels. The purpose of this contribution is to draw attention to the corresponding mathematical model, whose key ingredient is a strongly degenerate parabolic partial differential equation. For ideal (non-flocculated) suspensions, which do not form co compressible sediments, the mathematical model reduces to the kinematic approach by Anestis, who developed a method of construction of exact solution by the method of characteristics. The difficulty lies in the fact that characteristics and iso-concentration lines, unlike the conventional Kynch model for cylindrical vessels, do not coincide, and one has to resort to numerical methods to simulate the thickening process. A numerical algorithm is presented and employed for simulations of continuous thickening. Implications of the mathematical model are also demonstrated by steady-state calculations, which lead to new possibilities in thickener design. (author)

  20. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaylie Rasmuson; Kurt Rautenstrauch

    2003-01-01

    This analysis is one of nine technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. It documents input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCF). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in the biosphere Technical Work Plan (TWP, BSC 2003a). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development and therefore not available at the time this document is issued. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003b) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters. This analysis report, ANL-MGR-MD-000006, ''Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. This report defines and justifies values for twelve parameters required in the biosphere model. These parameters are related to use of contaminated groundwater to grow crops. The parameter values recommended in this report are used in the soil, plant, and carbon-14 submodels of the ERMYN

  1. H∞ Control for a Networked Control Model of Systems with Two Additive Time-Varying Delays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanyong Shao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with H∞ control for a networked control model of systems with two additive time-varying delays. A new Lyapunov functional is constructed to make full use of the information of the delays, and for the derivative of the Lyapunov functional a novel technique is employed to compute a tighter upper bound, which is dependent on the two time-varying delays instead of the upper bounds of them. Then the convex polyhedron method is proposed to check the upper bound of the derivative of the Lyapunov functional. The resulting stability criteria have fewer matrix variables but less conservatism than some existing ones. The stability criteria are applied to designing a state feedback controller, which guarantees that the closed-loop system is asymptotically stable with a prescribed H∞ disturbance attenuation level. Finally examples are given to show the advantages of the stability criteria and the effectiveness of the proposed control method.

  2. Structural nested mean models for assessing time-varying effect moderation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almirall, Daniel; Ten Have, Thomas; Murphy, Susan A

    2010-03-01

    This article considers the problem of assessing causal effect moderation in longitudinal settings in which treatment (or exposure) is time varying and so are the covariates said to moderate its effect. Intermediate causal effects that describe time-varying causal effects of treatment conditional on past covariate history are introduced and considered as part of Robins' structural nested mean model. Two estimators of the intermediate causal effects, and their standard errors, are presented and discussed: The first is a proposed two-stage regression estimator. The second is Robins' G-estimator. The results of a small simulation study that begins to shed light on the small versus large sample performance of the estimators, and on the bias-variance trade-off between the two estimators are presented. The methodology is illustrated using longitudinal data from a depression study.

  3. Inverse modeling approach for evaluation of kinetic parameters of a biofilm reactor using tabu search.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, B Shiva; Venkateswarlu, Ch

    2014-08-01

    The complex nature of biological reactions in biofilm reactors often poses difficulties in analyzing such reactors experimentally. Mathematical models could be very useful for their design and analysis. However, application of biofilm reactor models to practical problems proves somewhat ineffective due to the lack of knowledge of accurate kinetic models and uncertainty in model parameters. In this work, we propose an inverse modeling approach based on tabu search (TS) to estimate the parameters of kinetic and film thickness models. TS is used to estimate these parameters as a consequence of the validation of the mathematical models of the process with the aid of measured data obtained from an experimental fixed-bed anaerobic biofilm reactor involving the treatment of pharmaceutical industry wastewater. The results evaluated for different modeling configurations of varying degrees of complexity illustrate the effectiveness of TS for accurate estimation of kinetic and film thickness model parameters of the biofilm process. The results show that the two-dimensional mathematical model with Edward kinetics (with its optimum parameters as mu(max)rho(s)/Y = 24.57, Ks = 1.352 and Ki = 102.36) and three-parameter film thickness expression (with its estimated parameters as a = 0.289 x 10(-5), b = 1.55 x 10(-4) and c = 15.2 x 10(-6)) better describes the biofilm reactor treating the industry wastewater.

  4. Time-varying BRDFs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Bo; Sunkavalli, Kalyan; Ramamoorthi, Ravi; Belhumeur, Peter N; Nayar, Shree K

    2007-01-01

    The properties of virtually all real-world materials change with time, causing their bidirectional reflectance distribution functions (BRDFs) to be time varying. However, none of the existing BRDF models and databases take time variation into consideration; they represent the appearance of a material at a single time instance. In this paper, we address the acquisition, analysis, modeling, and rendering of a wide range of time-varying BRDFs (TVBRDFs). We have developed an acquisition system that is capable of sampling a material's BRDF at multiple time instances, with each time sample acquired within 36 sec. We have used this acquisition system to measure the BRDFs of a wide range of time-varying phenomena, which include the drying of various types of paints (watercolor, spray, and oil), the drying of wet rough surfaces (cement, plaster, and fabrics), the accumulation of dusts (household and joint compound) on surfaces, and the melting of materials (chocolate). Analytic BRDF functions are fit to these measurements and the model parameters' variations with time are analyzed. Each category exhibits interesting and sometimes nonintuitive parameter trends. These parameter trends are then used to develop analytic TVBRDF models. The analytic TVBRDF models enable us to apply effects such as paint drying and dust accumulation to arbitrary surfaces and novel materials.

  5. A simulation of water pollution model parameter estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibler, J. F.

    1976-01-01

    A parameter estimation procedure for a water pollution transport model is elaborated. A two-dimensional instantaneous-release shear-diffusion model serves as representative of a simple transport process. Pollution concentration levels are arrived at via modeling of a remote-sensing system. The remote-sensed data are simulated by adding Gaussian noise to the concentration level values generated via the transport model. Model parameters are estimated from the simulated data using a least-squares batch processor. Resolution, sensor array size, and number and location of sensor readings can be found from the accuracies of the parameter estimates.

  6. Lumped parameter models for the interpretation of environmental tracer data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maloszewski, P.; Zuber, A.

    1996-01-01

    Principles of the lumped-parameter approach to the interpretation of environmental tracer data are given. The following models are considered: the piston flow model (PFM), exponential flow model (EM), linear model (LM), combined piston flow and exponential flow model (EPM), combined linear flow and piston flow model (LPM), and dispersion model (DM). The applicability of these models for the interpretation of different tracer data is discussed for a steady state flow approximation. Case studies are given to exemplify the applicability of the lumped-parameter approach. Description of a user-friendly computer program is given. (author). 68 refs, 25 figs, 4 tabs

  7. Lumped parameter models for the interpretation of environmental tracer data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maloszewski, P [GSF-Inst. for Hydrology, Oberschleissheim (Germany); Zuber, A [Institute of Nuclear Physics, Cracow (Poland)

    1996-10-01

    Principles of the lumped-parameter approach to the interpretation of environmental tracer data are given. The following models are considered: the piston flow model (PFM), exponential flow model (EM), linear model (LM), combined piston flow and exponential flow model (EPM), combined linear flow and piston flow model (LPM), and dispersion model (DM). The applicability of these models for the interpretation of different tracer data is discussed for a steady state flow approximation. Case studies are given to exemplify the applicability of the lumped-parameter approach. Description of a user-friendly computer program is given. (author). 68 refs, 25 figs, 4 tabs.

  8. Time-varying mixed logit model for vehicle merging behavior in work zone merging areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Jinxian; Du, Gang; Li, Dan; Yu, Yao

    2018-08-01

    This study aims to develop a time-varying mixed logit model for the vehicle merging behavior in work zone merging areas during the merging implementation period from the time of starting a merging maneuver to that of completing the maneuver. From the safety perspective, vehicle crash probability and severity between the merging vehicle and its surrounding vehicles are regarded as major factors influencing vehicle merging decisions. Model results show that the model with the use of vehicle crash risk probability and severity could provide higher prediction accuracy than previous models with the use of vehicle speeds and gap sizes. It is found that lead vehicle type, through lead vehicle type, through lag vehicle type, crash probability of the merging vehicle with respect to the through lag vehicle, crash severities of the merging vehicle with respect to the through lead and lag vehicles could exhibit time-varying effects on the merging behavior. One important finding is that the merging vehicle could become more and more aggressive in order to complete the merging maneuver as quickly as possible over the elapsed time, even if it has high vehicle crash risk with respect to the through lead and lag vehicles. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. A boundary element model for diffraction of water waves on varying water depth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poulin, Sanne

    1997-12-31

    In this thesis a boundary element model for calculating diffraction of water waves on varying water depth is presented. The varying water depth is approximated with a perturbed constant depth in the mild-slope wave equation. By doing this, the domain integral which is a result of the varying depth is no longer a function of the unknown wave potential but only a function of position and the constant depth wave potential. The number of unknowns is the resulting system of equations is thus reduced significantly. The integration procedures in the model are tested very thoroughly and it is found that a combination of analytical integration in the singular region and standard numerical integration outside works very well. The gradient of the wave potential is evaluated successfully using a hypersingular integral equation. Deviations from the analytical solution are only found on the boundary or very close to, but these deviations have no significant influence on the accuracy of the solution. The domain integral is evaluated using the dual reciprocity method. The results are compared with a direct integration of the integral, and the accuracy is quite satisfactory. The problem with irregular frequencies is taken care of by the CBIEM (or CHIEF-method) together with a singular value decomposition technique. This method is simple to implement and works very well. The model is verified using Homma`s island as a test case. The test cases are limited to shallow water since the analytical solution is only valid in this region. Several depth ratios are examined, and it is found that the accuracy of the model increases with increasing wave period and decreasing depth ratio. Short waves, e.g. wind generated waves, can allow depth variations up to approximately 2 before the error exceeds 10%, while long waves can allow larger depth ratios. It is concluded that the perturbation idea is highly usable. A study of (partially) absorbing boundary conditions is also conducted. (EG)

  10. Parameters modelling of amaranth grain processing technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derkanosova, N. M.; Shelamova, S. A.; Ponomareva, I. N.; Shurshikova, G. V.; Vasilenko, O. A.

    2018-03-01

    The article presents a technique that allows calculating the structure of a multicomponent bakery mixture for the production of enriched products, taking into account the instability of nutrient content, and ensuring the fulfilment of technological requirements and, at the same time considering consumer preferences. The results of modelling and analysis of optimal solutions are given by the example of calculating the structure of a three-component mixture of wheat and rye flour with an enriching component, that is, whole-hulled amaranth flour applied to the technology of bread from a mixture of rye and wheat flour on a liquid leaven.

  11. WATGIS: A GIS-Based Lumped Parameter Water Quality Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glenn P. Fernandez; George M. Chescheir; R. Wayne Skaggs; Devendra M. Amatya

    2002-01-01

    A Geographic Information System (GIS)­based, lumped parameter water quality model was developed to estimate the spatial and temporal nitrogen­loading patterns for lower coastal plain watersheds in eastern North Carolina. The model uses a spatially distributed delivery ratio (DR) parameter to account for nitrogen retention or loss along a drainage network. Delivery...

  12. A test for the parameters of multiple linear regression models ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A test for the parameters of multiple linear regression models is developed for conducting tests simultaneously on all the parameters of multiple linear regression models. The test is robust relative to the assumptions of homogeneity of variances and absence of serial correlation of the classical F-test. Under certain null and ...

  13. The influence of model parameters on catchment-response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shah, S.M.S.; Gabriel, H.F.; Khan, A.A.

    2002-01-01

    This paper deals with the study of influence of influence of conceptual rainfall-runoff model parameters on catchment response (runoff). A conceptual modified watershed yield model is employed to study the effects of model-parameters on catchment-response, i.e. runoff. The model is calibrated, using manual parameter-fitting approach, also known as trial and error parameter-fitting. In all, there are twenty one (21) parameters that control the functioning of the model. A lumped parametric approach is used. The detailed analysis was performed on Ling River near Kahuta, having catchment area of 56 sq. miles. The model includes physical parameters like GWSM, PETS, PGWRO, etc. fitting coefficients like CINF, CGWS, etc. and initial estimates of the surface-water and groundwater storages i.e. srosp and gwsp. Sensitivity analysis offers a good way, without repetititious computations, the proper weight and consideration that must be taken when each of the influencing factor is evaluated. Sensitivity-analysis was performed to evaluate the influence of model-parameters on runoff. The sensitivity and relative contributions of model parameters influencing catchment-response are studied. (author)

  14. Identification of ecosystem parameters by SDE-modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) for ecosystem modelling have attracted increasing attention during recent years. The modelling has mostly been through simulation experiments in order to analyse how system noise propagates through the ordinary differential equation formulation of ecosystem...... models. Estimation of parameters in SDEs is, however, possible by combining Kalman filter techniques and likelihood estimation. By modelling parameters as random walks it is possible to identify linear as well as non-linear interactions between ecosystem components. By formulating a simple linear SDE...

  15. Regionalization of SWAT Model Parameters for Use in Ungauged Watersheds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Indrajeet Chaubey

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available There has been a steady shift towards modeling and model-based approaches as primary methods of assessing watershed response to hydrologic inputs and land management, and of quantifying watershed-wide best management practice (BMP effectiveness. Watershed models often require some degree of calibration and validation to achieve adequate watershed and therefore BMP representation. This is, however, only possible for gauged watersheds. There are many watersheds for which there are very little or no monitoring data available, thus the question as to whether it would be possible to extend and/or generalize model parameters obtained through calibration of gauged watersheds to ungauged watersheds within the same region. This study explored the possibility of developing regionalized model parameter sets for use in ungauged watersheds. The study evaluated two regionalization methods: global averaging, and regression-based parameters, on the SWAT model using data from priority watersheds in Arkansas. Resulting parameters were tested and model performance determined on three gauged watersheds. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (NS for stream flow obtained using regression-based parameters (0.53–0.83 compared well with corresponding values obtained through model calibration (0.45–0.90. Model performance obtained using global averaged parameter values was also generally acceptable (0.4 ≤ NS ≤ 0.75. Results from this study indicate that regionalized parameter sets for the SWAT model can be obtained and used for making satisfactory hydrologic response predictions in ungauged watersheds.

  16. Modeling Water Flux at the Base of the Rooting Zone for Soils with Varying Glacial Parent Materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naylor, S.; Ellett, K. M.; Ficklin, D. L.; Olyphant, G. A.

    2013-12-01

    Soils of varying glacial parent materials in the Great Lakes Region (USA) are characterized by thin unsaturated zones and widespread use of agricultural pesticides and nutrients that affect shallow groundwater. To better our understanding of the fate and transport of contaminants, improved models of water fluxes through the vadose zones of various hydrogeologic settings are warranted. Furthermore, calibrated unsaturated zone models can be coupled with watershed models, providing a means for predicting the impact of varying climate scenarios on agriculture in the region. To address these issues, a network of monitoring sites was developed in Indiana that provides continuous measurements of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET), soil volumetric water content (VWC), and soil matric potential to parameterize and calibrate models. Flux at the base of the root zone is simulated using two models of varying complexity: 1) the HYDRUS model, which numerically solves the Richards equation, and 2) the soil-water-balance (SWB) model, which assumes vertical flow under a unit gradient with infiltration and evapotranspiration treated as separate, sequential processes. Soil hydraulic parameters are determined based on laboratory data, a pedo-transfer function (ROSETTA), field measurements (Guelph permeameter), and parameter optimization. Groundwater elevation data are available at three of six sites to establish the base of the unsaturated zone model domain. Initial modeling focused on the groundwater recharge season (Nov-Feb) when PET is limited and much of the annual vertical flux occurs. HYDRUS results indicate that base of root zone fluxes at a site underlain by glacial ice-contact parent materials are 48% of recharge season precipitation (VWC RMSE=8.2%), while SWB results indicate that fluxes are 43% (VWC RMSE=3.7%). Due in part to variations in surface boundary conditions, more variable fluxes were obtained for a site underlain by alluvium with the SWB model (68

  17. Bayesian estimation of parameters in a regional hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Engeland

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the applicability of the distributed, process-oriented Ecomag model for prediction of daily streamflow in ungauged basins. The Ecomag model is applied as a regional model to nine catchments in the NOPEX area, using Bayesian statistics to estimate the posterior distribution of the model parameters conditioned on the observed streamflow. The distribution is calculated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC analysis. The Bayesian method requires formulation of a likelihood function for the parameters and three alternative formulations are used. The first is a subjectively chosen objective function that describes the goodness of fit between the simulated and observed streamflow, as defined in the GLUE framework. The second and third formulations are more statistically correct likelihood models that describe the simulation errors. The full statistical likelihood model describes the simulation errors as an AR(1 process, whereas the simple model excludes the auto-regressive part. The statistical parameters depend on the catchments and the hydrological processes and the statistical and the hydrological parameters are estimated simultaneously. The results show that the simple likelihood model gives the most robust parameter estimates. The simulation error may be explained to a large extent by the catchment characteristics and climatic conditions, so it is possible to transfer knowledge about them to ungauged catchments. The statistical models for the simulation errors indicate that structural errors in the model are more important than parameter uncertainties. Keywords: regional hydrological model, model uncertainty, Bayesian analysis, Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis

  18. Brownian motion model with stochastic parameters for asset prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ching, Soo Huei; Hin, Pooi Ah

    2013-09-01

    The Brownian motion model may not be a completely realistic model for asset prices because in real asset prices the drift μ and volatility σ may change over time. Presently we consider a model in which the parameter x = (μ,σ) is such that its value x (t + Δt) at a short time Δt ahead of the present time t depends on the value of the asset price at time t + Δt as well as the present parameter value x(t) and m-1 other parameter values before time t via a conditional distribution. The Malaysian stock prices are used to compare the performance of the Brownian motion model with fixed parameter with that of the model with stochastic parameter.

  19. Determination of the Corona model parameters with artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmet, Nayir; Bekir, Karlik; Arif, Hashimov

    2005-01-01

    Full text : The aim of this study is to calculate new model parameters taking into account the corona of electrical transmission line wires. For this purpose, a neural network modeling proposed for the corona frequent characteristics modeling. Then this model was compared with the other model developed at the Polytechnic Institute of Saint Petersburg. The results of development of the specified corona model for calculation of its influence on the wave processes in multi-wires line and determination of its parameters are submitted. Results of obtained calculation equations are brought for electrical transmission line with allowance for superficial effect in the ground and wires with reference to developed corona model

  20. Biological parameters for lung cancer in mathematical models of carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacob, P.; Jacob, V.

    2003-01-01

    Applications of the two-step model of carcinogenesis with clonal expansion (TSCE) to lung cancer data are reviewed, including those on atomic bomb survivors from Hiroshima and Nagasaki, British doctors, Colorado Plateau miners, and Chinese tin miners. Different sets of identifiable model parameters are used in the literature. The parameter set which could be determined with the lowest uncertainty consists of the net proliferation rate gamma of intermediate cells, the hazard h 55 at an intermediate age, and the hazard H? at an asymptotically large age. Also, the values of these three parameters obtained in the various studies are more consistent than other identifiable combinations of the biological parameters. Based on representative results for these three parameters, implications for the biological parameters in the TSCE model are derived. (author)

  1. Assessment of a surface-layer parameterization scheme in an atmospheric model for varying meteorological conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. J. Anurose

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The performance of a surface-layer parameterization scheme in a high-resolution regional model (HRM is carried out by comparing the model-simulated sensible heat flux (H with the concurrent in situ measurements recorded at Thiruvananthapuram (8.5° N, 76.9° E, a coastal station in India. With a view to examining the role of atmospheric stability in conjunction with the roughness lengths in the determination of heat exchange coefficient (CH and H for varying meteorological conditions, the model simulations are repeated by assigning different values to the ratio of momentum and thermal roughness lengths (i.e. z0m/z0h in three distinct configurations of the surface-layer scheme designed for the present study. These three configurations resulted in differential behaviour for the varying meteorological conditions, which is attributed to the sensitivity of CH to the bulk Richardson number (RiB under extremely unstable, near-neutral and stable stratification of the atmosphere.

  2. Modeling intensive longitudinal data with mixtures of nonparametric trajectories and time-varying effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dziak, John J; Li, Runze; Tan, Xianming; Shiffman, Saul; Shiyko, Mariya P

    2015-12-01

    Behavioral scientists increasingly collect intensive longitudinal data (ILD), in which phenomena are measured at high frequency and in real time. In many such studies, it is of interest to describe the pattern of change over time in important variables as well as the changing nature of the relationship between variables. Individuals' trajectories on variables of interest may be far from linear, and the predictive relationship between variables of interest and related covariates may also change over time in a nonlinear way. Time-varying effect models (TVEMs; see Tan, Shiyko, Li, Li, & Dierker, 2012) address these needs by allowing regression coefficients to be smooth, nonlinear functions of time rather than constants. However, it is possible that not only observed covariates but also unknown, latent variables may be related to the outcome. That is, regression coefficients may change over time and also vary for different kinds of individuals. Therefore, we describe a finite mixture version of TVEM for situations in which the population is heterogeneous and in which a single trajectory would conceal important, interindividual differences. This extended approach, MixTVEM, combines finite mixture modeling with non- or semiparametric regression modeling, to describe a complex pattern of change over time for distinct latent classes of individuals. The usefulness of the method is demonstrated in an empirical example from a smoking cessation study. We provide a versatile SAS macro and R function for fitting MixTVEMs. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  3. Learning about physical parameters: the importance of model discrepancy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brynjarsdóttir, Jenný; O'Hagan, Anthony

    2014-01-01

    Science-based simulation models are widely used to predict the behavior of complex physical systems. It is also common to use observations of the physical system to solve the inverse problem, that is, to learn about the values of parameters within the model, a process which is often called calibration. The main goal of calibration is usually to improve the predictive performance of the simulator but the values of the parameters in the model may also be of intrinsic scientific interest in their own right. In order to make appropriate use of observations of the physical system it is important to recognize model discrepancy, the difference between reality and the simulator output. We illustrate through a simple example that an analysis that does not account for model discrepancy may lead to biased and over-confident parameter estimates and predictions. The challenge with incorporating model discrepancy in statistical inverse problems is being confounded with calibration parameters, which will only be resolved with meaningful priors. For our simple example, we model the model-discrepancy via a Gaussian process and demonstrate that through accounting for model discrepancy our prediction within the range of data is correct. However, only with realistic priors on the model discrepancy do we uncover the true parameter values. Through theoretical arguments we show that these findings are typical of the general problem of learning about physical parameters and the underlying physical system using science-based mechanistic models. (paper)

  4. Modelling of the diffusion of pollutants in the atmosphere under varying conditions in large cultivated regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wueneke, C.D.; Schultz, H.

    1975-01-01

    The most important routines of a numerical code based on the particle-in-cell-method for calculating the transport and the turbulent dispersion of inert and radio-active pollutants in the atmosphere have been programmed and have been tested successfully on the CDC computer CYBER 73/76 of the Regional Computer Centre for Niedersachsen in Hanover. Compared to the Gaussian plume model such a numerical code based on the particle-in-cell-method offers several advantages for the computation of the diffusion under varying conditions in large cultivated regions. (orig.) [de

  5. Spatio-temporal modeling of nonlinear distributed parameter systems

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Han-Xiong

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this volume is to provide a brief review of the previous work on model reduction and identifi cation of distributed parameter systems (DPS), and develop new spatio-temporal models and their relevant identifi cation approaches. In this book, a systematic overview and classifi cation on the modeling of DPS is presented fi rst, which includes model reduction, parameter estimation and system identifi cation. Next, a class of block-oriented nonlinear systems in traditional lumped parameter systems (LPS) is extended to DPS, which results in the spatio-temporal Wiener and Hammerstein s

  6. Persistent oscillations and backward bifurcation in a malaria model with varying human and mosquito populations: implications for control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngonghala, Calistus N; Teboh-Ewungkem, Miranda I; Ngwa, Gideon A

    2015-06-01

    We derive and study a deterministic compartmental model for malaria transmission with varying human and mosquito populations. Our model considers disease-related deaths, asymptomatic immune humans who are also infectious, as well as mosquito demography, reproduction and feeding habits. Analysis of the model reveals the existence of a backward bifurcation and persistent limit cycles whose period and size is determined by two threshold parameters: the vectorial basic reproduction number Rm, and the disease basic reproduction number R0, whose size can be reduced by reducing Rm. We conclude that malaria dynamics are indeed oscillatory when the methodology of explicitly incorporating the mosquito's demography, feeding and reproductive patterns is considered in modeling the mosquito population dynamics. A sensitivity analysis reveals important control parameters that can affect the magnitudes of Rm and R0, threshold quantities to be taken into consideration when designing control strategies. Both Rm and the intrinsic period of oscillation are shown to be highly sensitive to the mosquito's birth constant λm and the mosquito's feeding success probability pw. Control of λm can be achieved by spraying, eliminating breeding sites or moving them away from human habitats, while pw can be controlled via the use of mosquito repellant and insecticide-treated bed-nets. The disease threshold parameter R0 is shown to be highly sensitive to pw, and the intrinsic period of oscillation is also sensitive to the rate at which reproducing mosquitoes return to breeding sites. A global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis reveals that the ability of the mosquito to reproduce and uncertainties in the estimations of the rates at which exposed humans become infectious and infectious humans recover from malaria are critical in generating uncertainties in the disease classes.

  7. Simulating Storm Surge Impacts with a Coupled Atmosphere-Inundation Model with Varying Meteorological Forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra N. Ramos Valle

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Storm surge events have the potential to cause devastating damage to coastal communities. The magnitude of their impacts highlights the need for increased accuracy and real-time forecasting and predictability of storm surge. In this study, we assess two meteorological forcing configurations to hindcast the storm surge of Hurricane Sandy, and ultimately support the improvement of storm surge forecasts. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model is coupled to the ADvanced CIRCulation Model (ADCIRC to determine water elevations. We perform four coupled simulations and compare storm surge estimates resulting from the use of a parametric vortex model and a full-physics atmospheric model. One simulation is forced with track-based meteorological data calculated from WRF, while three simulations are forced with the full wind and pressure field outputs from WRF simulations of varying resolutions. Experiments were compared to an ADCIRC simulation forced by National Hurricane Center best track data, as well as to station observations. Our results indicated that given accurate meteorological best track data, a parametric vortex model can accurately forecast maximum water elevations, improving upon the use of a full-physics coupled atmospheric-surge model. In the absence of a best track, atmospheric forcing in the form of full wind and pressure field from a high-resolution atmospheric model simulation prove reliable for storm surge forecasting.

  8. Parameters Estimation of Geographically Weighted Ordinal Logistic Regression (GWOLR) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuhdi, Shaifudin; Retno Sari Saputro, Dewi; Widyaningsih, Purnami

    2017-06-01

    A regression model is the representation of relationship between independent variable and dependent variable. The dependent variable has categories used in the logistic regression model to calculate odds on. The logistic regression model for dependent variable has levels in the logistics regression model is ordinal. GWOLR model is an ordinal logistic regression model influenced the geographical location of the observation site. Parameters estimation in the model needed to determine the value of a population based on sample. The purpose of this research is to parameters estimation of GWOLR model using R software. Parameter estimation uses the data amount of dengue fever patients in Semarang City. Observation units used are 144 villages in Semarang City. The results of research get GWOLR model locally for each village and to know probability of number dengue fever patient categories.

  9. Universally sloppy parameter sensitivities in systems biology models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan N Gutenkunst

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative computational models play an increasingly important role in modern biology. Such models typically involve many free parameters, and assigning their values is often a substantial obstacle to model development. Directly measuring in vivo biochemical parameters is difficult, and collectively fitting them to other experimental data often yields large parameter uncertainties. Nevertheless, in earlier work we showed in a growth-factor-signaling model that collective fitting could yield well-constrained predictions, even when it left individual parameters very poorly constrained. We also showed that the model had a "sloppy" spectrum of parameter sensitivities, with eigenvalues roughly evenly distributed over many decades. Here we use a collection of models from the literature to test whether such sloppy spectra are common in systems biology. Strikingly, we find that every model we examine has a sloppy spectrum of sensitivities. We also test several consequences of this sloppiness for building predictive models. In particular, sloppiness suggests that collective fits to even large amounts of ideal time-series data will often leave many parameters poorly constrained. Tests over our model collection are consistent with this suggestion. This difficulty with collective fits may seem to argue for direct parameter measurements, but sloppiness also implies that such measurements must be formidably precise and complete to usefully constrain many model predictions. We confirm this implication in our growth-factor-signaling model. Our results suggest that sloppy sensitivity spectra are universal in systems biology models. The prevalence of sloppiness highlights the power of collective fits and suggests that modelers should focus on predictions rather than on parameters.

  10. Universally sloppy parameter sensitivities in systems biology models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutenkunst, Ryan N; Waterfall, Joshua J; Casey, Fergal P; Brown, Kevin S; Myers, Christopher R; Sethna, James P

    2007-10-01

    Quantitative computational models play an increasingly important role in modern biology. Such models typically involve many free parameters, and assigning their values is often a substantial obstacle to model development. Directly measuring in vivo biochemical parameters is difficult, and collectively fitting them to other experimental data often yields large parameter uncertainties. Nevertheless, in earlier work we showed in a growth-factor-signaling model that collective fitting could yield well-constrained predictions, even when it left individual parameters very poorly constrained. We also showed that the model had a "sloppy" spectrum of parameter sensitivities, with eigenvalues roughly evenly distributed over many decades. Here we use a collection of models from the literature to test whether such sloppy spectra are common in systems biology. Strikingly, we find that every model we examine has a sloppy spectrum of sensitivities. We also test several consequences of this sloppiness for building predictive models. In particular, sloppiness suggests that collective fits to even large amounts of ideal time-series data will often leave many parameters poorly constrained. Tests over our model collection are consistent with this suggestion. This difficulty with collective fits may seem to argue for direct parameter measurements, but sloppiness also implies that such measurements must be formidably precise and complete to usefully constrain many model predictions. We confirm this implication in our growth-factor-signaling model. Our results suggest that sloppy sensitivity spectra are universal in systems biology models. The prevalence of sloppiness highlights the power of collective fits and suggests that modelers should focus on predictions rather than on parameters.

  11. Parameter estimation of variable-parameter nonlinear Muskingum model using excel solver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Ling; Zhou, Liwei

    2018-02-01

    Abstract . The Muskingum model is an effective flood routing technology in hydrology and water resources Engineering. With the development of optimization technology, more and more variable-parameter Muskingum models were presented to improve effectiveness of the Muskingum model in recent decades. A variable-parameter nonlinear Muskingum model (NVPNLMM) was proposed in this paper. According to the results of two real and frequently-used case studies by various models, the NVPNLMM could obtain better values of evaluation criteria, which are used to describe the superiority of the estimated outflows and compare the accuracies of flood routing using various models, and the optimal estimated outflows by the NVPNLMM were closer to the observed outflows than the ones by other models.

  12. A phenomenological model on the kink mode threshold varying with the inclination of sheath boundary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, X.; Intrator, T. P.; Sears, J.; Weber, T.; Liu, M.

    2013-01-01

    In nature and many laboratory plasmas, a magnetic flux tube threaded by current or a flux rope has a footpoint at a boundary. The current driven kink mode is one of the fundamental ideal magnetohydrodynamic instabilities in plasmas. It has an instability threshold that has been found to strongly depend on boundary conditions (BCs). We provide a theoretical model to explain the transition of this threshold dependence between nonline tied and line tied boundary conditions. We evaluate model parameters using experimentally measured plasma data, explicitly verify several kink eigenfunctions, and validate the model predictions for boundary conditions BCs that span the range between NLT and LT BCs. Based on this model, one could estimate the kink threshold given knowledge of the displacement of a flux rope end, or conversely estimate flux rope end motion based on knowledge of it kink stability threshold

  13. Modeling and Parameter Estimation of a Small Wind Generation System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos A. Ramírez Gómez

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The modeling and parameter estimation of a small wind generation system is presented in this paper. The system consists of a wind turbine, a permanent magnet synchronous generator, a three phase rectifier, and a direct current load. In order to estimate the parameters wind speed data are registered in a weather station located in the Fraternidad Campus at ITM. Wind speed data were applied to a reference model programed with PSIM software. From that simulation, variables were registered to estimate the parameters. The wind generation system model together with the estimated parameters is an excellent representation of the detailed model, but the estimated model offers a higher flexibility than the programed model in PSIM software.

  14. NONLINEAR PLANT PIECEWISE-CONTINUOUS MODEL MATRIX PARAMETERS ESTIMATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roman L. Leibov

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a nonlinear plant piecewise-continuous model matrix parameters estimation technique using nonlinear model time responses and random search method. One of piecewise-continuous model application areas is defined. The results of proposed approach application for aircraft turbofan engine piecewisecontinuous model formation are presented

  15. Identification of parameters of discrete-continuous models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cekus, Dawid; Warys, Pawel

    2015-01-01

    In the paper, the parameters of a discrete-continuous model have been identified on the basis of experimental investigations and formulation of optimization problem. The discrete-continuous model represents a cantilever stepped Timoshenko beam. The mathematical model has been formulated and solved according to the Lagrange multiplier formalism. Optimization has been based on the genetic algorithm. The presented proceeding’s stages make the identification of any parameters of discrete-continuous systems possible

  16. Identification of parameters of discrete-continuous models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cekus, Dawid, E-mail: cekus@imipkm.pcz.pl; Warys, Pawel, E-mail: warys@imipkm.pcz.pl [Institute of Mechanics and Machine Design Foundations, Czestochowa University of Technology, Dabrowskiego 73, 42-201 Czestochowa (Poland)

    2015-03-10

    In the paper, the parameters of a discrete-continuous model have been identified on the basis of experimental investigations and formulation of optimization problem. The discrete-continuous model represents a cantilever stepped Timoshenko beam. The mathematical model has been formulated and solved according to the Lagrange multiplier formalism. Optimization has been based on the genetic algorithm. The presented proceeding’s stages make the identification of any parameters of discrete-continuous systems possible.

  17. A time-varying subjective quality model for mobile streaming videos with stalling events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghadiyaram, Deepti; Pan, Janice; Bovik, Alan C.

    2015-09-01

    Over-the-top mobile video streaming is invariably influenced by volatile network conditions which cause playback interruptions (stalling events), thereby impairing users' quality of experience (QoE). Developing models that can accurately predict users' QoE could enable the more efficient design of quality-control protocols for video streaming networks that reduce network operational costs while still delivering high-quality video content to the customers. Existing objective models that predict QoE are based on global video features, such as the number of stall events and their lengths, and are trained and validated on a small pool of ad hoc video datasets, most of which are not publicly available. The model we propose in this work goes beyond previous models as it also accounts for the fundamental effect that a viewer's recent level of satisfaction or dissatisfaction has on their overall viewing experience. In other words, the proposed model accounts for and adapts to the recency, or hysteresis effect caused by a stall event in addition to accounting for the lengths, frequency of occurrence, and the positions of stall events - factors that interact in a complex way to affect a user's QoE. On the recently introduced LIVE-Avvasi Mobile Video Database, which consists of 180 distorted videos of varied content that are afflicted solely with over 25 unique realistic stalling events, we trained and validated our model to accurately predict the QoE, attaining standout QoE prediction performance.

  18. Parameter estimation in stochastic rainfall-runoff models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Harpa; Madsen, Henrik; Palsson, Olafur Petur

    2006-01-01

    A parameter estimation method for stochastic rainfall-runoff models is presented. The model considered in the paper is a conceptual stochastic model, formulated in continuous-discrete state space form. The model is small and a fully automatic optimization is, therefore, possible for estimating all...... the parameter values are optimal for simulation or prediction. The data originates from Iceland and the model is designed for Icelandic conditions, including a snow routine for mountainous areas. The model demands only two input data series, precipitation and temperature and one output data series...

  19. Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Henrik; Johansen, Søren

    1999-01-01

    Some methods for the evaluation of parameter constancy in vector autoregressive (VAR) models are discussed. Two different ways of re-estimating the VAR model are proposed; one in which all parameters are estimated recursively based upon the likelihood function for the first observations, and anot...... be applied to test the constancy of the long-run parameters in the cointegrated VAR-model. All results are illustrated using a model for the term structure of interest rates on US Treasury securities. ......Some methods for the evaluation of parameter constancy in vector autoregressive (VAR) models are discussed. Two different ways of re-estimating the VAR model are proposed; one in which all parameters are estimated recursively based upon the likelihood function for the first observations......, and another in which the cointegrating relations are estimated recursively from a likelihood function, where the short-run parameters have been concentrated out. We suggest graphical procedures based on recursively estimated eigenvalues to evaluate the constancy of the long-run parameters in the model...

  20. Incorporating model parameter uncertainty into inverse treatment planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lian Jun; Xing Lei

    2004-01-01

    Radiobiological treatment planning depends not only on the accuracy of the models describing the dose-response relation of different tumors and normal tissues but also on the accuracy of tissue specific radiobiological parameters in these models. Whereas the general formalism remains the same, different sets of model parameters lead to different solutions and thus critically determine the final plan. Here we describe an inverse planning formalism with inclusion of model parameter uncertainties. This is made possible by using a statistical analysis-based frameset developed by our group. In this formalism, the uncertainties of model parameters, such as the parameter a that describes tissue-specific effect in the equivalent uniform dose (EUD) model, are expressed by probability density function and are included in the dose optimization process. We found that the final solution strongly depends on distribution functions of the model parameters. Considering that currently available models for computing biological effects of radiation are simplistic, and the clinical data used to derive the models are sparse and of questionable quality, the proposed technique provides us with an effective tool to minimize the effect caused by the uncertainties in a statistical sense. With the incorporation of the uncertainties, the technique has potential for us to maximally utilize the available radiobiology knowledge for better IMRT treatment

  1. Robust distributed model predictive control of linear systems with structured time-varying uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Langwen; Xie, Wei; Wang, Jingcheng

    2017-11-01

    In this work, synthesis of robust distributed model predictive control (MPC) is presented for a class of linear systems subject to structured time-varying uncertainties. By decomposing a global system into smaller dimensional subsystems, a set of distributed MPC controllers, instead of a centralised controller, are designed. To ensure the robust stability of the closed-loop system with respect to model uncertainties, distributed state feedback laws are obtained by solving a min-max optimisation problem. The design of robust distributed MPC is then transformed into solving a minimisation optimisation problem with linear matrix inequality constraints. An iterative online algorithm with adjustable maximum iteration is proposed to coordinate the distributed controllers to achieve a global performance. The simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed robust distributed MPC algorithm.

  2. Proportional hazards model with varying coefficients for length-biased data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Feipeng; Chen, Xuerong; Zhou, Yong

    2014-01-01

    Length-biased data arise in many important applications including epidemiological cohort studies, cancer prevention trials and studies of labor economics. Such data are also often subject to right censoring due to loss of follow-up or the end of study. In this paper, we consider a proportional hazards model with varying coefficients for right-censored and length-biased data, which is used to study the interact effect nonlinearly of covariates with an exposure variable. A local estimating equation method is proposed for the unknown coefficients and the intercept function in the model. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established by using the martingale theory and kernel smoothing techniques. Our simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed estimators have an excellent finite-sample performance. The Channing House data is analyzed to demonstrate the applications of the proposed method.

  3. Dealing with time-varying recruitment and length in Hill-type muscle models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamouda, Ahmed; Kenney, Laurence; Howard, David

    2016-10-03

    Hill-type muscle models are often used in muscle simulation studies and also in the design and virtual prototyping of functional electrical stimulation systems. These models have to behave in a sufficiently realistic manner when recruitment level and contractile element (CE) length change continuously. For this reason, most previous models have used instantaneous CE length in the muscle׳s force vs. length (F-L) relationship, but thereby neglect the instability problem on the descending limb (i.e. region of negative slope) of the F-L relationship. Ideally CE length at initial recruitment should be used but this requires a multiple-motor-unit muscle model to properly account for different motor-units having different initial lengths when recruited. None of the multiple-motor-unit models reported in the literature have used initial CE length in the muscle׳s F-L relationship, thereby also neglecting the descending limb instability problem. To address the problem of muscle modelling for continuously varying recruitment and length, and hence different values of initial CE length for different motor-units, a new multiple-motor-unit muscle model is presented which considers the muscle to comprise 1000 individual Hill-type virtual motor-units, which determine the total isometric force. Other parts of the model (F-V relationship and passive elements) are not dependent on the initial CE length and, therefore, they are implemented for the muscle as a whole rather than for the individual motor-units. The results demonstrate the potential errors introduced by using a single-motor-unit model and also the instantaneous CE length in the F-L relationship, both of which are common in FES control studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. A multiscale MDCT image-based breathing lung model with time-varying regional ventilation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yin, Youbing, E-mail: youbing-yin@uiowa.edu [Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); IIHR-Hydroscience and Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); Department of Radiology, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); Choi, Jiwoong, E-mail: jiwoong-choi@uiowa.edu [Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); IIHR-Hydroscience and Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); Hoffman, Eric A., E-mail: eric-hoffman@uiowa.edu [Department of Radiology, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); Department of Biomedical Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); Department of Internal Medicine, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); Tawhai, Merryn H., E-mail: m.tawhai@auckland.ac.nz [Auckland Bioengineering Institute, The University of Auckland, Auckland (New Zealand); Lin, Ching-Long, E-mail: ching-long-lin@uiowa.edu [Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); IIHR-Hydroscience and Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States)

    2013-07-01

    A novel algorithm is presented that links local structural variables (regional ventilation and deforming central airways) to global function (total lung volume) in the lung over three imaged lung volumes, to derive a breathing lung model for computational fluid dynamics simulation. The algorithm constitutes the core of an integrative, image-based computational framework for subject-specific simulation of the breathing lung. For the first time, the algorithm is applied to three multi-detector row computed tomography (MDCT) volumetric lung images of the same individual. A key technique in linking global and local variables over multiple images is an in-house mass-preserving image registration method. Throughout breathing cycles, cubic interpolation is employed to ensure C{sub 1} continuity in constructing time-varying regional ventilation at the whole lung level, flow rate fractions exiting the terminal airways, and airway deformation. The imaged exit airway flow rate fractions are derived from regional ventilation with the aid of a three-dimensional (3D) and one-dimensional (1D) coupled airway tree that connects the airways to the alveolar tissue. An in-house parallel large-eddy simulation (LES) technique is adopted to capture turbulent-transitional-laminar flows in both normal and deep breathing conditions. The results obtained by the proposed algorithm when using three lung volume images are compared with those using only one or two volume images. The three-volume-based lung model produces physiologically-consistent time-varying pressure and ventilation distribution. The one-volume-based lung model under-predicts pressure drop and yields un-physiological lobar ventilation. The two-volume-based model can account for airway deformation and non-uniform regional ventilation to some extent, but does not capture the non-linear features of the lung.

  5. A multiscale MDCT image-based breathing lung model with time-varying regional ventilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Youbing; Choi, Jiwoong; Hoffman, Eric A.; Tawhai, Merryn H.; Lin, Ching-Long

    2012-01-01

    A novel algorithm is presented that links local structural variables (regional ventilation and deforming central airways) to global function (total lung volume) in the lung over three imaged lung volumes, to derive a breathing lung model for computational fluid dynamics simulation. The algorithm constitutes the core of an integrative, image-based computational framework for subject-specific simulation of the breathing lung. For the first time, the algorithm is applied to three multi-detector row computed tomography (MDCT) volumetric lung images of the same individual. A key technique in linking global and local variables over multiple images is an in-house mass-preserving image registration method. Throughout breathing cycles, cubic interpolation is employed to ensure C1 continuity in constructing time-varying regional ventilation at the whole lung level, flow rate fractions exiting the terminal airways, and airway deformation. The imaged exit airway flow rate fractions are derived from regional ventilation with the aid of a three-dimensional (3D) and one-dimensional (1D) coupled airway tree that connects the airways to the alveolar tissue. An in-house parallel large-eddy simulation (LES) technique is adopted to capture turbulent-transitional-laminar flows in both normal and deep breathing conditions. The results obtained by the proposed algorithm when using three lung volume images are compared with those using only one or two volume images. The three-volume-based lung model produces physiologically-consistent time-varying pressure and ventilation distribution. The one-volume-based lung model under-predicts pressure drop and yields un-physiological lobar ventilation. The two-volume-based model can account for airway deformation and non-uniform regional ventilation to some extent, but does not capture the non-linear features of the lung. PMID:23794749

  6. A method for model identification and parameter estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bambach, M; Heinkenschloss, M; Herty, M

    2013-01-01

    We propose and analyze a new method for the identification of a parameter-dependent model that best describes a given system. This problem arises, for example, in the mathematical modeling of material behavior where several competing constitutive equations are available to describe a given material. In this case, the models are differential equations that arise from the different constitutive equations, and the unknown parameters are coefficients in the constitutive equations. One has to determine the best-suited constitutive equations for a given material and application from experiments. We assume that the true model is one of the N possible parameter-dependent models. To identify the correct model and the corresponding parameters, we can perform experiments, where for each experiment we prescribe an input to the system and observe a part of the system state. Our approach consists of two stages. In the first stage, for each pair of models we determine the experiment, i.e. system input and observation, that best differentiates between the two models, and measure the distance between the two models. Then we conduct N(N − 1) or, depending on the approach taken, N(N − 1)/2 experiments and use the result of the experiments as well as the previously computed model distances to determine the true model. We provide sufficient conditions on the model distances and measurement errors which guarantee that our approach identifies the correct model. Given the model, we identify the corresponding model parameters in the second stage. The problem in the second stage is a standard parameter estimation problem and we use a method suitable for the given application. We illustrate our approach on three examples, including one where the models are elliptic partial differential equations with different parameterized right-hand sides and an example where we identify the constitutive equation in a problem from computational viscoplasticity. (paper)

  7. Modelling hydrodynamic parameters to predict flow assisted corrosion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poulson, B.; Greenwell, B.; Chexal, B.; Horowitz, J.

    1992-01-01

    During the past 15 years, flow assisted corrosion has been a worldwide problem in the power generating industry. The phenomena is complex and depends on environment, material composition, and hydrodynamic factors. Recently, modeling of flow assisted corrosion has become a subject of great importance. A key part of this effort is modeling the hydrodynamic aspects of this issue. This paper examines which hydrodynamic parameter should be used to correlate the occurrence and rate of flow assisted corrosion with physically meaningful parameters, discusses ways of measuring the relevant hydrodynamic parameter, and describes how the hydrodynamic data is incorporated into the predictive model

  8. Spatial modeling of HIV and HSV-2 among women in Kenya with spatially varying coefficients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elphas Okango

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Disease mapping has become popular in the field of statistics as a method to explain the spatial distribution of disease outcomes and as a tool to help design targeted intervention strategies. Most of these models however have been implemented with assumptions that may be limiting or altogether lead to less meaningful results and hence interpretations. Some of these assumptions include the linearity, stationarity and normality assumptions. Studies have shown that the linearity assumption is not necessarily true for all covariates. Age for example has been found to have a non-linear relationship with HIV and HSV-2 prevalence. Other studies have made stationarity assumption in that one stimulus e.g. education, provokes the same response in all the regions under study and this is also quite restrictive. Responses to stimuli may vary from region to region due to aspects like culture, preferences and attitudes. Methods We perform a spatial modeling of HIV and HSV-2 among women in Kenya, while relaxing these assumptions i.e. the linearity assumption by allowing the covariate age to have a non-linear effect on HIV and HSV-2 prevalence using the random walk model of order 2 and the stationarity assumption by allowing the rest of the covariates to vary spatially using the conditional autoregressive model. The women data used in this study were derived from the 2007 Kenya AIDS indicator survey where women aged 15–49 years were surveyed. A full Bayesian approach was used and the models were implemented in R-INLA software. Results Age was found to have a non-linear relationship with both HIV and HSV-2 prevalence, and the spatially varying coefficient model provided a significantly better fit for HSV-2. Age-at first sex also had a greater effect on HSV-2 prevalence in the Coastal and some parts of North Eastern regions suggesting either early marriages or child prostitution. The effect of education on HIV prevalence among women was more

  9. A method for fitting regression splines with varying polynomial order in the linear mixed model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Lloyd J; Stewart, Paul W; MacDougall, James E; Helms, Ronald W

    2006-02-15

    The linear mixed model has become a widely used tool for longitudinal analysis of continuous variables. The use of regression splines in these models offers the analyst additional flexibility in the formulation of descriptive analyses, exploratory analyses and hypothesis-driven confirmatory analyses. We propose a method for fitting piecewise polynomial regression splines with varying polynomial order in the fixed effects and/or random effects of the linear mixed model. The polynomial segments are explicitly constrained by side conditions for continuity and some smoothness at the points where they join. By using a reparameterization of this explicitly constrained linear mixed model, an implicitly constrained linear mixed model is constructed that simplifies implementation of fixed-knot regression splines. The proposed approach is relatively simple, handles splines in one variable or multiple variables, and can be easily programmed using existing commercial software such as SAS or S-plus. The method is illustrated using two examples: an analysis of longitudinal viral load data from a study of subjects with acute HIV-1 infection and an analysis of 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure profiles.

  10. A distributed approach for parameters estimation in System Biology models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosca, E.; Merelli, I.; Alfieri, R.; Milanesi, L.

    2009-01-01

    Due to the lack of experimental measurements, biological variability and experimental errors, the value of many parameters of the systems biology mathematical models is yet unknown or uncertain. A possible computational solution is the parameter estimation, that is the identification of the parameter values that determine the best model fitting respect to experimental data. We have developed an environment to distribute each run of the parameter estimation algorithm on a different computational resource. The key feature of the implementation is a relational database that allows the user to swap the candidate solutions among the working nodes during the computations. The comparison of the distributed implementation with the parallel one showed that the presented approach enables a faster and better parameter estimation of systems biology models.

  11. Optimal parameters for the FFA-Beddoes dynamic stall model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bjoerck, A; Mert, M [FFA, The Aeronautical Research Institute of Sweden, Bromma (Sweden); Madsen, H A [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)

    1999-03-01

    Unsteady aerodynamic effects, like dynamic stall, must be considered in calculation of dynamic forces for wind turbines. Models incorporated in aero-elastic programs are of semi-empirical nature. Resulting aerodynamic forces therefore depend on values used for the semi-empiricial parameters. In this paper a study of finding appropriate parameters to use with the Beddoes-Leishman model is discussed. Minimisation of the `tracking error` between results from 2D wind tunnel tests and simulation with the model is used to find optimum values for the parameters. The resulting optimum parameters show a large variation from case to case. Using these different sets of optimum parameters in the calculation of blade vibrations, give rise to quite different predictions of aerodynamic damping which is discussed. (au)

  12. Time-varying effect moderation using the structural nested mean model: estimation using inverse-weighted regression with residuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almirall, Daniel; Griffin, Beth Ann; McCaffrey, Daniel F.; Ramchand, Rajeev; Yuen, Robert A.; Murphy, Susan A.

    2014-01-01

    This article considers the problem of examining time-varying causal effect moderation using observational, longitudinal data in which treatment, candidate moderators, and possible confounders are time varying. The structural nested mean model (SNMM) is used to specify the moderated time-varying causal effects of interest in a conditional mean model for a continuous response given time-varying treatments and moderators. We present an easy-to-use estimator of the SNMM that combines an existing regression-with-residuals (RR) approach with an inverse-probability-of-treatment weighting (IPTW) strategy. The RR approach has been shown to identify the moderated time-varying causal effects if the time-varying moderators are also the sole time-varying confounders. The proposed IPTW+RR approach provides estimators of the moderated time-varying causal effects in the SNMM in the presence of an additional, auxiliary set of known and measured time-varying confounders. We use a small simulation experiment to compare IPTW+RR versus the traditional regression approach and to compare small and large sample properties of asymptotic versus bootstrap estimators of the standard errors for the IPTW+RR approach. This article clarifies the distinction between time-varying moderators and time-varying confounders. We illustrate the methodology in a case study to assess if time-varying substance use moderates treatment effects on future substance use. PMID:23873437

  13. Online State Space Model Parameter Estimation in Synchronous Machines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Gallehdari

    2014-06-01

    The suggested approach is evaluated for a sample synchronous machine model. Estimated parameters are tested for different inputs at different operating conditions. The effect of noise is also considered in this study. Simulation results show that the proposed approach provides good accuracy for parameter estimation.

  14. Development of an Improved Time Varying Loudness Model with the Inclusion of Binaural Loudness Summation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charbonneau, Jeremy

    As the perceived quality of a product is becoming more important in the manufacturing industry, more emphasis is being placed on accurately predicting the sound quality of everyday objects. This study was undertaken to improve upon current prediction techniques with regard to the psychoacoustic descriptor of loudness and an improved binaural summation technique. The feasibility of this project was first investigated through a loudness matching experiment involving thirty-one subjects and pure tones of constant sound pressure level. A dependence of binaural summation on frequency was observed which had previously not been a subject of investigation in the reviewed literature. A follow-up investigation was carried out with forty-eight volunteers and pure tones of constant sensation level. Contrary to existing theories in literature the resulting loudness matches revealed an amplitude versus frequency relationship which confirmed the perceived increase in loudness when a signal was presented to both ears simultaneously as opposed to one ear alone. The resulting trend strongly indicated that the higher the frequency of the presented signal, the greater the increase in observed binaural summation. The results from each investigation were summarized into a single binaural summation algorithm and inserted into an improved time-varying loudness model. Using experimental techniques, it was demonstrated that the updated binaural summation algorithm was a considerable improvement over the state of the art approach for predicting the perceived binaural loudness. The improved function retained the ease of use from the original model while additionally providing accurate estimates of diotic listening conditions from monaural WAV files. It was clearly demonstrated using a validation jury test that the revised time-varying loudness model was a significant improvement over the previously standardized approach.

  15. Complexity, parameter sensitivity and parameter transferability in the modelling of floodplain inundation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, P. D.; Neal, J. C.; Fewtrell, T. J.

    2012-12-01

    In this we paper we consider two related questions. First, we address the issue of how much physical complexity is necessary in a model in order to simulate floodplain inundation to within validation data error. This is achieved through development of a single code/multiple physics hydraulic model (LISFLOOD-FP) where different degrees of complexity can be switched on or off. Different configurations of this code are applied to four benchmark test cases, and compared to the results of a number of industry standard models. Second we address the issue of how parameter sensitivity and transferability change with increasing complexity using numerical experiments with models of different physical and geometric intricacy. Hydraulic models are a good example system with which to address such generic modelling questions as: (1) they have a strong physical basis; (2) there is only one set of equations to solve; (3) they require only topography and boundary conditions as input data; and (4) they typically require only a single free parameter, namely boundary friction. In terms of complexity required we show that for the problem of sub-critical floodplain inundation a number of codes of different dimensionality and resolution can be found to fit uncertain model validation data equally well, and that in this situation Occam's razor emerges as a useful logic to guide model selection. We find also find that model skill usually improves more rapidly with increases in model spatial resolution than increases in physical complexity, and that standard approaches to testing hydraulic models against laboratory data or analytical solutions may fail to identify this important fact. Lastly, we find that in benchmark testing studies significant differences can exist between codes with identical numerical solution techniques as a result of auxiliary choices regarding the specifics of model implementation that are frequently unreported by code developers. As a consequence, making sound

  16. Retrospective forecast of ETAS model with daily parameters estimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falcone, Giuseppe; Murru, Maura; Console, Rodolfo; Marzocchi, Warner; Zhuang, Jiancang

    2016-04-01

    We present a retrospective ETAS (Epidemic Type of Aftershock Sequence) model based on the daily updating of free parameters during the background, the learning and the test phase of a seismic sequence. The idea was born after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The CSEP (Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability) Center in Japan provided an appropriate testing benchmark for the five 1-day submitted models. Of all the models, only one was able to successfully predict the number of events that really happened. This result was verified using both the real time and the revised catalogs. The main cause of the failure was in the underestimation of the forecasted events, due to model parameters maintained fixed during the test. Moreover, the absence in the learning catalog of an event similar to the magnitude of the mainshock (M9.0), which drastically changed the seismicity in the area, made the learning parameters not suitable to describe the real seismicity. As an example of this methodological development we show the evolution of the model parameters during the last two strong seismic sequences in Italy: the 2009 L'Aquila and the 2012 Reggio Emilia episodes. The achievement of the model with daily updated parameters is compared with that of same model where the parameters remain fixed during the test time.

  17. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaylie Rasmuson; Kurt Rautenstrauch

    2003-06-20

    This analysis is one of nine technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. It documents input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCF). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in the biosphere Technical Work Plan (TWP, BSC 2003a). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development and therefore not available at the time this document is issued. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003b) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters. This analysis report, ANL-MGR-MD-000006, ''Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. This report defines and justifies values for twelve parameters required in the biosphere model. These parameters are related to use of contaminated groundwater to grow crops. The parameter values recommended in this report are used in the soil, plant, and carbon-14 submodels of the ERMYN.

  18. Using the power balance model to simulate cross-country skiing on varying terrain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moxnes, John F; Sandbakk, Oyvind; Hausken, Kjell

    2014-01-01

    The current study adapts the power balance model to simulate cross-country skiing on varying terrain. We assumed that the skier's locomotive power at a self-chosen pace is a function of speed, which is impacted by friction, incline, air drag, and mass. An elite male skier's position along the track during ski skating was simulated and compared with his experimental data. As input values in the model, air drag and friction were estimated from the literature based on the skier's mass, snow conditions, and speed. We regard the fit as good, since the difference in racing time between simulations and measurements was 2 seconds of the 815 seconds racing time, with acceptable fit both in uphill and downhill terrain. Using this model, we estimated the influence of changes in various factors such as air drag, friction, and body mass on performance. In conclusion, the power balance model with locomotive power as a function of speed was found to be a valid tool for analyzing performance in cross-country skiing.

  19. Using the power balance model to simulate cross-country skiing on varying terrain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moxnes JF

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available John F Moxnes,1 Øyvind Sandbakk,2 Kjell Hausken31Department for Protection, Norwegian Defence Research Establishment, Kjeller, Norway; 2Center for Elite Sports Research, Department of Neuroscience, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway; 3Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Stavanger, Stavanger, NorwayAbstract: The current study adapts the power balance model to simulate cross-country skiing on varying terrain. We assumed that the skier’s locomotive power at a self-chosen pace is a function of speed, which is impacted by friction, incline, air drag, and mass. An elite male skier’s position along the track during ski skating was simulated and compared with his experimental data. As input values in the model, air drag and friction were estimated from the literature based on the skier's mass, snow conditions, and speed. We regard the fit as good, since the difference in racing time between simulations and measurements was 2 seconds of the 815 seconds racing time, with acceptable fit both in uphill and downhill terrain. Using this model, we estimated the influence of changes in various factors such as air drag, friction, and body mass on performance. In conclusion, the power balance model with locomotive power as a function of speed was found to be a valid tool for analyzing performance in cross-country skiing.Keywords: air drag, efficiency, friction coefficient, speed, locomotive power

  20. Malware Propagation and Prevention Model for Time-Varying Community Networks within Software Defined Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lan Liu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available As the adoption of Software Defined Networks (SDNs grows, the security of SDN still has several unaddressed limitations. A key network security research area is in the study of malware propagation across the SDN-enabled networks. To analyze the spreading processes of network malware (e.g., viruses in SDN, we propose a dynamic model with a time-varying community network, inspired by research models on the spread of epidemics in complex networks across communities. We assume subnets of the network as communities and links that are dense in subnets but sparse between subnets. Using numerical simulation and theoretical analysis, we find that the efficiency of network malware propagation in this model depends on the mobility rate q of the nodes between subnets. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold qc. The network malware will spread in the SDN when the mobility rate q>qc. The malware will survive when q>qc and perish when qmodel is effective, and the results may help to decide the SDN control strategy to defend against network malware and provide a theoretical basis to reduce and prevent network security incidents.

  1. Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkel, Brian J.

    2011-01-01

    We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of population growth, specifically logistic growth models and two-species competition models. We discuss student-evolved strategies and offer "Mathematica" code for a gradient search approach. We use historical (1930s) data from microbial studies of the Russian biologist,…

  2. Uncertainty in dual permeability model parameters for structured soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arora, B.; Mohanty, B. P.; McGuire, J. T.

    2012-01-01

    Successful application of dual permeability models (DPM) to predict contaminant transport is contingent upon measured or inversely estimated soil hydraulic and solute transport parameters. The difficulty in unique identification of parameters for the additional macropore- and matrix-macropore interface regions, and knowledge about requisite experimental data for DPM has not been resolved to date. Therefore, this study quantifies uncertainty in dual permeability model parameters of experimental soil columns with different macropore distributions (single macropore, and low- and high-density multiple macropores). Uncertainty evaluation is conducted using adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (AMCMC) and conventional Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithms while assuming 10 out of 17 parameters to be uncertain or random. Results indicate that AMCMC resolves parameter correlations and exhibits fast convergence for all DPM parameters while MH displays large posterior correlations for various parameters. This study demonstrates that the choice of parameter sampling algorithms is paramount in obtaining unique DPM parameters when information on covariance structure is lacking, or else additional information on parameter correlations must be supplied to resolve the problem of equifinality of DPM parameters. This study also highlights the placement and significance of matrix-macropore interface in flow experiments of soil columns with different macropore densities. Histograms for certain soil hydraulic parameters display tri-modal characteristics implying that macropores are drained first followed by the interface region and then by pores of the matrix domain in drainage experiments. Results indicate that hydraulic properties and behavior of the matrix-macropore interface is not only a function of saturated hydraulic conductivity of the macroporematrix interface (Ksa) and macropore tortuosity (lf) but also of other parameters of the matrix and macropore domains.

  3. Luminescence model with quantum impact parameter for low energy ions

    CERN Document Server

    Cruz-Galindo, H S; Martínez-Davalos, A; Belmont-Moreno, E; Galindo, S

    2002-01-01

    We have modified an analytical model of induced light production by energetic ions interacting in scintillating materials. The original model is based on the distribution of energy deposited by secondary electrons produced along the ion's track. The range of scattered electrons, and thus the energy distribution, depends on a classical impact parameter between the electron and the ion's track. The only adjustable parameter of the model is the quenching density rho sub q. The modification here presented, consists in proposing a quantum impact parameter that leads to a better fit of the model to the experimental data at low incident ion energies. The light output response of CsI(Tl) detectors to low energy ions (<3 MeV/A) is fitted with the modified model and comparison is made to the original model.

  4. Challenges in modeling spatiotemporally varying phytoplankton blooms in the Northwestern Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedigh Marvasti, S.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Bidokhti, A. A.; Dunne, J. P.; Ghader, S.

    2016-02-01

    Recent years have shown an increase in harmful algal blooms in the Northwest Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman, raising the question of whether climate change will accelerate this trend. This has led us to examine whether the Earth System Models used to simulate phytoplankton productivity accurately capture bloom dynamics in this region - both in terms of the annual cycle and interannual variability. Satellite data (SeaWIFS ocean color) show two climatological blooms in this region, a wintertime bloom peaking in February and a summertime bloom peaking in September. On a regional scale, interannual variability of the wintertime bloom is dominated by cyclonic eddies which vary in location from one year to another. Two coarse (1°) models with the relatively complex biogeochemistry (TOPAZ) capture the annual cycle but neither eddies nor the interannual variability. An eddy-resolving model (GFDL CM2.6) with a simpler biogeochemistry (miniBLING) displays larger interannual variability, but overestimates the wintertime bloom and captures eddy-bloom coupling in the south but not in the north. The models fail to capture both the magnitude of the wintertime bloom and its modulation by eddies in part because of their failure to capture the observed sharp thermocline and/or nutricline in this region. When CM2.6 is able to capture such features in the Southern part of the basin, eddies modulate diffusive nutrient supply to the surface (a mechanism not previously emphasized in the literature). For the model to simulate the observed wintertime blooms within cyclones, it will be necessary to represent this relatively unusual nutrient structure as well as the cyclonic eddies. This is a challenge in the Northern Arabian Sea as it requires capturing the details of the outflow from the Persian Gulf - something that is poorly done in global models.

  5. Description of signature scales in a floating wind turbine model wake subjected to varying turbulence intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadum, Hawwa; Rockel, Stanislav; Holling, Michael; Peinke, Joachim; Cal, Raul Bayon

    2017-11-01

    The wake behind a floating model horizontal axis wind turbine during pitch motion is investigated and compared to a fixed wind turbine wake. An experiment is conducted in an acoustic wind tunnel where hot-wire data are acquired at five downstream locations. At each downstream location, a rake of 16 hot-wires was used with placement of the probes increasing radially in the vertical, horizontal, and diagonally at 45 deg. In addition, the effect of turbulence intensity on the floating wake is examined by subjecting the wind turbine to different inflow conditions controlled through three settings in the wind tunnel grid, a passive and two active protocols, thus varying in intensity. The wakes are inspected by statistics of the point measurements, where the various length/time scales are considered. The wake characteristics for a floating wind turbine are compared to a fixed turbine, and uncovering its features; relevant as the demand for exploiting deep waters in wind energy is increasing.

  6. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    K. Rasmuson; K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-01-01

    This analysis is one of 10 technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) (i.e., the biosphere model). It documents development of agricultural and environmental input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters

  7. Determining extreme parameter correlation in ground water models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hill, Mary Cole; Østerby, Ole

    2003-01-01

    can go undetected even by experienced modelers. Extreme parameter correlation can be detected using parameter correlation coefficients, but their utility depends on the presence of sufficient, but not excessive, numerical imprecision of the sensitivities, such as round-off error. This work...... investigates the information that can be obtained from parameter correlation coefficients in the presence of different levels of numerical imprecision, and compares it to the information provided by an alternative method called the singular value decomposition (SVD). Results suggest that (1) calculated...... correlation coefficients with absolute values that round to 1.00 were good indicators of extreme parameter correlation, but smaller values were not necessarily good indicators of lack of correlation and resulting unique parameter estimates; (2) the SVD may be more difficult to interpret than parameter...

  8. Comparison of the kinetics of different Markov models for ligand binding under varying conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martini, Johannes W. R.; Habeck, Michael

    2015-01-01

    We recently derived a Markov model for macromolecular ligand binding dynamics from few physical assumptions and showed that its stationary distribution is the grand canonical ensemble [J. W. R. Martini, M. Habeck, and M. Schlather, J. Math. Chem. 52, 665 (2014)]. The transition probabilities of the proposed Markov process define a particular Glauber dynamics and have some similarity to the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Here, we illustrate that this model is the stochastic analog of (pseudo) rate equations and the corresponding system of differential equations. Moreover, it can be viewed as a limiting case of general stochastic simulations of chemical kinetics. Thus, the model links stochastic and deterministic approaches as well as kinetics and equilibrium described by the grand canonical ensemble. We demonstrate that the family of transition matrices of our model, parameterized by temperature and ligand activity, generates ligand binding kinetics that respond to changes in these parameters in a qualitatively similar way as experimentally observed kinetics. In contrast, neither the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm nor the Glauber heat bath reflects changes in the external conditions correctly. Both converge rapidly to the stationary distribution, which is advantageous when the major interest is in the equilibrium state, but fail to describe the kinetics of ligand binding realistically. To simulate cellular processes that involve the reversible stochastic binding of multiple factors, our pseudo rate equation model should therefore be preferred to the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and the Glauber heat bath, if the stationary distribution is not of only interest

  9. Comparison of the kinetics of different Markov models for ligand binding under varying conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martini, Johannes W. R., E-mail: jmartin2@gwdg.de [Max Planck Institute for Developmental Biology, Tübingen (Germany); Felix Bernstein Institute for Mathematical Statistics in the Biosciences, University of Göttingen, Göttingen (Germany); Habeck, Michael, E-mail: mhabeck@gwdg.de [Felix Bernstein Institute for Mathematical Statistics in the Biosciences, University of Göttingen, Göttingen (Germany); Max Planck Institute for Biophysical Chemistry, Göttingen (Germany)

    2015-03-07

    We recently derived a Markov model for macromolecular ligand binding dynamics from few physical assumptions and showed that its stationary distribution is the grand canonical ensemble [J. W. R. Martini, M. Habeck, and M. Schlather, J. Math. Chem. 52, 665 (2014)]. The transition probabilities of the proposed Markov process define a particular Glauber dynamics and have some similarity to the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Here, we illustrate that this model is the stochastic analog of (pseudo) rate equations and the corresponding system of differential equations. Moreover, it can be viewed as a limiting case of general stochastic simulations of chemical kinetics. Thus, the model links stochastic and deterministic approaches as well as kinetics and equilibrium described by the grand canonical ensemble. We demonstrate that the family of transition matrices of our model, parameterized by temperature and ligand activity, generates ligand binding kinetics that respond to changes in these parameters in a qualitatively similar way as experimentally observed kinetics. In contrast, neither the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm nor the Glauber heat bath reflects changes in the external conditions correctly. Both converge rapidly to the stationary distribution, which is advantageous when the major interest is in the equilibrium state, but fail to describe the kinetics of ligand binding realistically. To simulate cellular processes that involve the reversible stochastic binding of multiple factors, our pseudo rate equation model should therefore be preferred to the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and the Glauber heat bath, if the stationary distribution is not of only interest.

  10. Uncertainty of Modal Parameters Estimated by ARMA Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jacob Laigaard; Brincker, Rune; Rytter, Anders

    1990-01-01

    In this paper the uncertainties of identified modal parameters such as eidenfrequencies and damping ratios are assed. From the measured response of dynamic excited structures the modal parameters may be identified and provide important structural knowledge. However the uncertainty of the parameters...... by simulation study of a lightly damped single degree of freedom system. Identification by ARMA models has been choosen as system identification method. It is concluded that both the sampling interval and number of sampled points may play a significant role with respect to the statistical errors. Furthermore......, it is shown that the model errors may also contribute significantly to the uncertainty....

  11. SPOTting Model Parameters Using a Ready-Made Python Package.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Houska

    Full Text Available The choice for specific parameter estimation methods is often more dependent on its availability than its performance. We developed SPOTPY (Statistical Parameter Optimization Tool, an open source python package containing a comprehensive set of methods typically used to calibrate, analyze and optimize parameters for a wide range of ecological models. SPOTPY currently contains eight widely used algorithms, 11 objective functions, and can sample from eight parameter distributions. SPOTPY has a model-independent structure and can be run in parallel from the workstation to large computation clusters using the Message Passing Interface (MPI. We tested SPOTPY in five different case studies to parameterize the Rosenbrock, Griewank and Ackley functions, a one-dimensional physically based soil moisture routine, where we searched for parameters of the van Genuchten-Mualem function and a calibration of a biogeochemistry model with different objective functions. The case studies reveal that the implemented SPOTPY methods can be used for any model with just a minimal amount of code for maximal power of parameter optimization. They further show the benefit of having one package at hand that includes number of well performing parameter search methods, since not every case study can be solved sufficiently with every algorithm or every objective function.

  12. Parameter resolution in two models for cell survival after radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Di Cera, E.; Andreasi Bassi, F.; Arcovito, G.

    1989-01-01

    The resolvability of model parameters for the linear-quadratic and the repair-misrepair models for cell survival after radiation has been studied by Monte Carlo simulations as a function of the number of experimental data points collected in a given dose range and the experimental error. Statistical analysis of the results reveals the range of experimental conditions under which the model parameters can be resolved with sufficient accuracy, and points out some differences in the operational aspects of the two models. (orig.)

  13. Simultaneous inference for model averaging of derived parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Signe Marie; Ritz, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Model averaging is a useful approach for capturing uncertainty due to model selection. Currently, this uncertainty is often quantified by means of approximations that do not easily extend to simultaneous inference. Moreover, in practice there is a need for both model averaging and simultaneous...... inference for derived parameters calculated in an after-fitting step. We propose a method for obtaining asymptotically correct standard errors for one or several model-averaged estimates of derived parameters and for obtaining simultaneous confidence intervals that asymptotically control the family...

  14. Updating parameters of the chicken processing line model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kurowicka, Dorota; Nauta, Maarten; Jozwiak, Katarzyna

    2010-01-01

    A mathematical model of chicken processing that quantitatively describes the transmission of Campylobacter on chicken carcasses from slaughter to chicken meat product has been developed in Nauta et al. (2005). This model was quantified with expert judgment. Recent availability of data allows...... updating parameters of the model to better describe processes observed in slaughterhouses. We propose Bayesian updating as a suitable technique to update expert judgment with microbiological data. Berrang and Dickens’s data are used to demonstrate performance of this method in updating parameters...... of the chicken processing line model....

  15. Lumped-parameter Model of a Bucket Foundation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars; Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, Morten

    2009-01-01

    efficient model that can be applied in aero-elastic codes for fast evaluation of the dynamic structural response of wind turbines. The target solutions, utilised for calibration of the lumped-parameter models, are obtained by a coupled finite-element/boundaryelement scheme in the frequency domain......, and the quality of the models are tested in the time and frequency domains. It is found that precise results are achieved by lumped-parameter models with two to four internal degrees of freedom per displacement or rotation of the foundation. Further, coupling between the horizontal sliding and rocking cannot...

  16. Lumped-Parameter Models for Windturbine Footings on Layered Ground

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars

    The design of modern wind turbines is typically based on lifetime analyses using aeroelastic codes. In this regard, the impedance of the foundations must be described accurately without increasing the overall size of the computationalmodel significantly. This may be obtained by the fitting...... of a lumped-parameter model to the results of a rigorous model or experimental results. In this paper, guidelines are given for the formulation of such lumped-parameter models and examples are given in which the models are utilised for the analysis of a wind turbine supported by a surface footing on a layered...

  17. A Hydrodynamic and Sediment Transport Model for the Waipaoa Shelf, New Zealand: Sensitivity of Fluxes to Spatially-Varying Erodibility and Model Nesting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia M. Moriarty

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Numerical models can complement observations in investigations of marine sediment transport and depositional processes. A coupled hydrodynamic and sediment transport model was implemented for the Waipaoa River continental shelf offshore of the North Island of New Zealand, to complement a 13-month field campaign that collected seabed and hydrodynamic measurements. This paper described the formulations used within the model, and analyzed the sensitivity of sediment flux estimates to model nesting and seabed erodibility. Calculations were based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System—Community Sediment Transport Modeling System (ROMS-CSTMS, a primitive equation model using a finite difference solution to the equations for momentum and water mass conservation, and transport of salinity, temperature, and multiple classes of suspended sediment. The three-dimensional model resolved the complex bathymetry, bottom boundary layer, and river plume that impact sediment dispersal on this shelf, and accounted for processes including fluvial input, winds, waves, tides, and sediment resuspension. Nesting within a larger-scale, lower resolution hydrodynamic model stabilized model behavior during river floods and allowed large-scale shelf currents to impact sediment dispersal. To better represent observations showing that sediment erodibility decreased away from the river mouth, the seabed erosion rate parameter was reduced with water depth. This allowed the model to account for the observed spatial pattern of erodibility, though the model held the critical shear stress for erosion constant. Although the model neglected consolidation and swelling processes, use of a spatially-varying erodibility parameter significantly increased export of fluvial sediment from Poverty Bay to deeper areas of the shelf.

  18. MODELING OF FUEL SPRAY CHARACTERISTICS AND DIESEL COMBUSTION CHAMBER PARAMETERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. M. Kukharonak

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The computer model for coordination of fuel spray characteristics with diesel combustion chamber parameters has been created in the paper.  The model allows to observe fuel sprays  develоpment in diesel cylinder at any moment of injection, to calculate characteristics of fuel sprays with due account of a shape and dimensions of a combustion chamber, timely to change fuel injection characteristics and supercharging parameters, shape and dimensions of a combustion chamber. Moreover the computer model permits to determine parameters of holes in an injector nozzle that provides the required fuel sprays characteristics at the stage of designing a diesel engine. Combustion chamber parameters for 4ЧН11/12.5 diesel engine have been determined in the paper.

  19. Interacting viscous entropy-corrected holographic scalar field models of dark energy with time-varying G in modified FRW cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adabi, Farzin; Karami, Kayoomars; Felegary, Fereshte; Azarmi, Zohre

    2012-01-01

    We study the entropy-corrected version of the holographic dark energy (HDE) model in the framework of modified Friedmann-Robertson-Walker cosmology. We consider a non-flat universe filled with an interacting viscous entropy-corrected HDE (ECHDE) with dark matter. Also included in our model is the case of the variable gravitational constant G. We obtain the equation of state and the deceleration parameters of the interacting viscous ECHDE. Moreover, we reconstruct the potential and the dynamics of the quintessence, tachyon, K-essence and dilaton scalar field models according to the evolutionary behavior of the interacting viscous ECHDE model with time-varying G. (research papers)

  20. Patient-specific parameter estimation in single-ventricle lumped circulation models under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiavazzi, Daniele E.; Baretta, Alessia; Pennati, Giancarlo; Hsia, Tain-Yen; Marsden, Alison L.

    2017-01-01

    Summary Computational models of cardiovascular physiology can inform clinical decision-making, providing a physically consistent framework to assess vascular pressures and flow distributions, and aiding in treatment planning. In particular, lumped parameter network (LPN) models that make an analogy to electrical circuits offer a fast and surprisingly realistic method to reproduce the circulatory physiology. The complexity of LPN models can vary significantly to account, for example, for cardiac and valve function, respiration, autoregulation, and time-dependent hemodynamics. More complex models provide insight into detailed physiological mechanisms, but their utility is maximized if one can quickly identify patient specific parameters. The clinical utility of LPN models with many parameters will be greatly enhanced by automated parameter identification, particularly if parameter tuning can match non-invasively obtained clinical data. We present a framework for automated tuning of 0D lumped model parameters to match clinical data. We demonstrate the utility of this framework through application to single ventricle pediatric patients with Norwood physiology. Through a combination of local identifiability, Bayesian estimation and maximum a posteriori simplex optimization, we show the ability to automatically determine physiologically consistent point estimates of the parameters and to quantify uncertainty induced by errors and assumptions in the collected clinical data. We show that multi-level estimation, that is, updating the parameter prior information through sub-model analysis, can lead to a significant reduction in the parameter marginal posterior variance. We first consider virtual patient conditions, with clinical targets generated through model solutions, and second application to a cohort of four single-ventricle patients with Norwood physiology. PMID:27155892

  1. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Wasiolek

    2004-09-10

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment for the license application (TSPA-LA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA-LA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) (TWP). This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA). This report is one of the five reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model and the mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed description of the model input parameters. The output of this report is used as direct input in the ''Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' and in the ''Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios, respectively. The purpose of this analysis was to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or in volcanic ash). The analysis

  2. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M. Wasiolek

    2004-01-01

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment for the license application (TSPA-LA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA-LA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) (TWP). This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA). This report is one of the five reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model and the mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed description of the model input parameters. The output of this report is used as direct input in the ''Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' and in the ''Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios, respectively. The purpose of this analysis was to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or in volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573])

  3. Challenges in modelling spatiotemporally varying phytoplankton blooms in the Northwestern Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedigh Marvasti, S.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Bidokhti, A. A.; Dunne, J. P.; Ghader, S.

    2015-07-01

    We examine interannual variability of phytoplankton blooms in northwestern Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman. Satellite data (SeaWIFS ocean color) shows two climatological blooms in this region, a wintertime bloom peaking in February and a summertime bloom peaking in September. A pronounced anti-correlation between the AVISO sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) and chlorophyll is found during the wintertime bloom. On a regional scale, interannual variability of the wintertime bloom is thus dominated by cyclonic eddies which vary in location from one year to another. These results were compared against the outputs from three different 3-D Earth System models. We show that two coarse (1°) models with the relatively complex biogeochemistry (TOPAZ) capture the annual cycle but neither eddies nor the interannual variability. An eddy-resolving model (GFDL CM2.6) with a simpler biogeochemistry (miniBLING) displays larger interannual variability, but overestimates the wintertime bloom and captures eddy-bloom coupling in the south but not in the north. The southern part of the domain is a region with a much sharper thermocline and nutricline relatively close to the surface, in which eddies modulate diffusive nutrient supply to the surface (a mechanism not previously emphasized in the literature). We suggest that for the model to simulate the observed wintertime blooms within cyclones, it will be necessary to represent this relatively unusual nutrient structure as well as the cyclonic eddies. This is a challenge in the Northern Arabian Sea as it requires capturing the details of the outflow from the Persian Gulf.

  4. Modeling Sluggishness in Binaural Unmasking of Speech for Maskers With Time-Varying Interaural Phase Differences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauth, Christopher F; Brand, Thomas

    2018-01-01

    In studies investigating binaural processing in human listeners, relatively long and task-dependent time constants of a binaural window ranging from 10 ms to 250 ms have been observed. Such time constants are often thought to reflect "binaural sluggishness." In this study, the effect of binaural sluggishness on binaural unmasking of speech in stationary speech-shaped noise is investigated in 10 listeners with normal hearing. In order to design a masking signal with temporally varying binaural cues, the interaural phase difference of the noise was modulated sinusoidally with frequencies ranging from 0.25 Hz to 64 Hz. The lowest, that is the best, speech reception thresholds (SRTs) were observed for the lowest modulation frequency. SRTs increased with increasing modulation frequency up to 4 Hz. For higher modulation frequencies, SRTs remained constant in the range of 1 dB to 1.5 dB below the SRT determined in the diotic situation. The outcome of the experiment was simulated using a short-term binaural speech intelligibility model, which combines an equalization-cancellation (EC) model with the speech intelligibility index. This model segments the incoming signal into 23.2-ms time frames in order to predict release from masking in modulated noises. In order to predict the results from this study, the model required a further time constant applied to the EC mechanism representing binaural sluggishness. The best agreement with perceptual data was achieved using a temporal window of 200 ms in the EC mechanism.

  5. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-09-10

    This analysis is one of 10 reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception.

  6. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-01-01

    This analysis is one of 10 reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception

  7. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wasiolek, M. A.

    2003-01-01

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2003 [163602]). Some documents in Figure 1-1 may be under development and not available when this report is issued. This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA), but access to the listed documents is not required to understand the contents of this report. This report is one of the reports that develops input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes the conceptual model, the mathematical model, and the input parameters. The purpose of this analysis is to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2003 [163602]). This analysis develops values of parameters associated with many features, events, and processes (FEPs) applicable to the reference biosphere (DTN: M00303SEPFEPS2.000 [162452]), which are addressed in the biosphere model (BSC 2003 [160699]). The treatment of these FEPs is described in BSC (2003 [160699], Section 6.2). Parameter values

  8. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-06-27

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2003 [163602]). Some documents in Figure 1-1 may be under development and not available when this report is issued. This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA), but access to the listed documents is not required to understand the contents of this report. This report is one of the reports that develops input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes the conceptual model, the mathematical model, and the input parameters. The purpose of this analysis is to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2003 [163602]). This analysis develops values of parameters associated with many features, events, and processes (FEPs) applicable to the reference biosphere (DTN: M00303SEPFEPS2.000 [162452]), which are addressed in the biosphere model (BSC 2003 [160699]). The treatment of these FEPs is described in BSC (2003 [160699

  9. Reflector modelization for neutronic diffusion and parameters identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Argaud, J.P.

    1993-04-01

    Physical parameters of neutronic diffusion equations can be adjusted to decrease calculations-measurements errors. The reflector being always difficult to modelize, we choose to elaborate a new reflector model and to use the parameters of this model as adjustment coefficients in the identification procedure. Using theoretical results, and also the physical behaviour of neutronic flux solutions, the reflector model consists then in its replacement by boundary conditions for the diffusion equations on the core only. This theoretical result of non-local operator relations leads then to some discrete approximations by taking into account the multiscaled behaviour, on the core-reflector interface, of neutronic diffusion solutions. The resulting model of this approach is then compared with previous reflector modelizations, and first results indicate that this new model gives the same representation of reflector for the core than previous. (author). 12 refs

  10. Regionalising Parameters of a Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    IHACRES, a lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model, was calibrated to six catchments ranging in size from 49km2 to 600 km2 within the upper Tana River basin to obtain a set of model parameters that characterise the hydrological behaviour within the region. Physical catchment attributes indexing topography, soil and ...

  11. Constraint on Parameters of Inverse Compton Scattering Model for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    B2319+60, two parameters of inverse Compton scattering model, the initial Lorentz factor and the factor of energy loss of relativistic particles are constrained. Key words. Pulsar—inverse Compton scattering—emission mechanism. 1. Introduction. Among various kinds of models for pulsar radio emission, the inverse ...

  12. Geometry parameters for musculoskeletal modelling of the shoulder system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Helm, F C; Veeger, DirkJan (H. E. J.); Pronk, G M; Van der Woude, L H; Rozendal, R H

    A dynamical finite-element model of the shoulder mechanism consisting of thorax, clavicula, scapula and humerus is outlined. The parameters needed for the model are obtained in a cadaver experiment consisting of both shoulders of seven cadavers. In this paper, in particular, the derivation of

  13. Rain storm models and the relationship between their parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stol, P.T.

    1977-01-01

    Rainfall interstation correlation functions can be obtained with the aid of analytic rainfall or storm models. Since alternative storm models have different mathematical formulas, comparison should be based on equallity of parameters like storm diameter, mean rainfall amount, storm maximum or total

  14. Lumped-parameters equivalent circuit for condenser microphones modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esteves, Josué; Rufer, Libor; Ekeom, Didace; Basrour, Skandar

    2017-10-01

    This work presents a lumped parameters equivalent model of condenser microphone based on analogies between acoustic, mechanical, fluidic, and electrical domains. Parameters of the model were determined mainly through analytical relations and/or finite element method (FEM) simulations. Special attention was paid to the air gap modeling and to the use of proper boundary condition. Corresponding lumped-parameters were obtained as results of FEM simulations. Because of its simplicity, the model allows a fast simulation and is readily usable for microphone design. This work shows the validation of the equivalent circuit on three real cases of capacitive microphones, including both traditional and Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems structures. In all cases, it has been demonstrated that the sensitivity and other related data obtained from the equivalent circuit are in very good agreement with available measurement data.

  15. A software for parameter estimation in dynamic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Yuceer

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available A common problem in dynamic systems is to determine parameters in an equation used to represent experimental data. The goal is to determine the values of model parameters that provide the best fit to measured data, generally based on some type of least squares or maximum likelihood criterion. In the most general case, this requires the solution of a nonlinear and frequently non-convex optimization problem. Some of the available software lack in generality, while others do not provide ease of use. A user-interactive parameter estimation software was needed for identifying kinetic parameters. In this work we developed an integration based optimization approach to provide a solution to such problems. For easy implementation of the technique, a parameter estimation software (PARES has been developed in MATLAB environment. When tested with extensive example problems from literature, the suggested approach is proven to provide good agreement between predicted and observed data within relatively less computing time and iterations.

  16. Determination of appropriate models and parameters for premixing calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Ik-Kyu; Kim, Jong-Hwan; Min, Beong-Tae; Hong, Seong-Wan

    2008-03-15

    The purpose of the present work is to use experiments that have been performed at Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe during about the last ten years for determining the most appropriate models and parameters for premixing calculations. The results of a QUEOS experiment are used to fix the parameters concerning heat transfer. The QUEOS experiments are especially suited for this purpose as they have been performed with small hot solid spheres. Therefore the area of heat exchange is known. With the heat transfer parameters fixed in this way, a PREMIX experiment is recalculated. These experiments have been performed with molten alumina (Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}) as a simulant of corium. Its initial temperature is 2600 K. With these experiments the models and parameters for jet and drop break-up are tested.

  17. Parameter identification in a nonlinear nuclear reactor model using quasilinearization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barreto, J.M.; Martins Neto, A.F.; Tanomaru, N.

    1980-09-01

    Parameter identification in a nonlinear, lumped parameter, nuclear reactor model is carried out using discrete output power measurements during the transient caused by an external reactivity change. In order to minimize the difference between the model and the reactor power responses, the parameter promt neutron generation time and a parameter in fuel temperature reactivity coefficient equation are adjusted using quasilinearization. The influences of the external reactivity disturbance, the number and frequency of measurements and the measurement noise level on the method accuracy and rate of convergence are analysed through simulation. Procedures for the design of the identification experiments are suggested. The method proved to be very effective for low level noise measurements. (Author) [pt

  18. Determination of appropriate models and parameters for premixing calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Ik-Kyu; Kim, Jong-Hwan; Min, Beong-Tae; Hong, Seong-Wan

    2008-03-01

    The purpose of the present work is to use experiments that have been performed at Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe during about the last ten years for determining the most appropriate models and parameters for premixing calculations. The results of a QUEOS experiment are used to fix the parameters concerning heat transfer. The QUEOS experiments are especially suited for this purpose as they have been performed with small hot solid spheres. Therefore the area of heat exchange is known. With the heat transfer parameters fixed in this way, a PREMIX experiment is recalculated. These experiments have been performed with molten alumina (Al 2 O 3 ) as a simulant of corium. Its initial temperature is 2600 K. With these experiments the models and parameters for jet and drop break-up are tested

  19. Condition Parameter Modeling for Anomaly Detection in Wind Turbines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yonglong Yan

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Data collected from the supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA system, used widely in wind farms to obtain operational and condition information about wind turbines (WTs, is of important significance for anomaly detection in wind turbines. The paper presents a novel model for wind turbine anomaly detection mainly based on SCADA data and a back-propagation neural network (BPNN for automatic selection of the condition parameters. The SCADA data sets are determined through analysis of the cumulative probability distribution of wind speed and the relationship between output power and wind speed. The automatic BPNN-based parameter selection is for reduction of redundant parameters for anomaly detection in wind turbines. Through investigation of cases of WT faults, the validity of the automatic parameter selection-based model for WT anomaly detection is verified.

  20. Ground level enhancement (GLE) energy spectrum parameters model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, G.; Wu, S.

    2017-12-01

    We study the ground level enhancement (GLE) events in solar cycle 23 with the four energy spectra parameters, the normalization parameter C, low-energy power-law slope γ 1, high-energy power-law slope γ 2, and break energy E0, obtained by Mewaldt et al. 2012 who fit the observations to the double power-law equation. we divide the GLEs into two groups, one with strong acceleration by interplanetary (IP) shocks and another one without strong acceleration according to the condition of solar eruptions. We next fit the four parameters with solar event conditions to get models of the parameters for the two groups of GLEs separately. So that we would establish a model of energy spectrum for GLEs for the future space weather prediction.

  1. Model Study of Wave Overtopping of Marine Structure for a Wide Range of Geometric Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kofoed, Jens Peter

    2000-01-01

    The objective of the study described in this paper is to enable estimation of wave overtopping rates for slopes/ramps given by a wide range of geometric parameters when subjected to varying wave conditions. To achieve this a great number of model tests are carried out in a wave tank using irregul...... 2-D waves. On the basis of the first part of these tests an exponential overtopping expression for a linear slope, including the effect of limited draught and varying slope angle, is presented. The plans for further tests with other slope geometries are described....

  2. Soil-related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A. J. Smith

    2003-01-01

    This analysis is one of the technical reports containing documentation of the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN biosphere model is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2003 [163602]). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development at the time this report is issued and therefore not available. This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this report. This report, ''Soil Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five analysis reports that develop input parameters for use in the ERMYN model. This report is the source documentation for the six biosphere parameters identified in Table 1-1. ''The Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. The purpose of this analysis was to develop the biosphere model parameters needed to evaluate doses from pathways associated with the accumulation and depletion of radionuclides in the soil. These parameters support the calculation of radionuclide concentrations in soil from on-going irrigation and ash

  3. Parameters Optimization and Application to Glutamate Fermentation Model Using SVM

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Xiangsheng; Pan, Feng

    2015-01-01

    Aimed at the parameters optimization in support vector machine (SVM) for glutamate fermentation modelling, a new method is developed. It optimizes the SVM parameters via an improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO) algorithm which has better global searching ability. The algorithm includes detecting and handling the local convergence and exhibits strong ability to avoid being trapped in local minima. The material step of the method was shown. Simulation experiments demonstrate the effective...

  4. Parameters Optimization and Application to Glutamate Fermentation Model Using SVM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiangsheng Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Aimed at the parameters optimization in support vector machine (SVM for glutamate fermentation modelling, a new method is developed. It optimizes the SVM parameters via an improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO algorithm which has better global searching ability. The algorithm includes detecting and handling the local convergence and exhibits strong ability to avoid being trapped in local minima. The material step of the method was shown. Simulation experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

  5. A Bayesian framework for parameter estimation in dynamical models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flávio Codeço Coelho

    Full Text Available Mathematical models in biology are powerful tools for the study and exploration of complex dynamics. Nevertheless, bringing theoretical results to an agreement with experimental observations involves acknowledging a great deal of uncertainty intrinsic to our theoretical representation of a real system. Proper handling of such uncertainties is key to the successful usage of models to predict experimental or field observations. This problem has been addressed over the years by many tools for model calibration and parameter estimation. In this article we present a general framework for uncertainty analysis and parameter estimation that is designed to handle uncertainties associated with the modeling of dynamic biological systems while remaining agnostic as to the type of model used. We apply the framework to fit an SIR-like influenza transmission model to 7 years of incidence data in three European countries: Belgium, the Netherlands and Portugal.

  6. A lumped parameter, low dimension model of heat exchanger

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanoh, Hideaki; Furushoo, Junji; Masubuchi, Masami

    1980-01-01

    This paper reports on the results of investigation of the distributed parameter model, the difference model, and the model of the method of weighted residuals for heat exchangers. By the method of weighted residuals (MWR), the opposite flow heat exchanger system is approximated by low dimension, lumped parameter model. By assuming constant specific heat, constant density, the same form of tube cross-section, the same form of the surface of heat exchange, uniform flow velocity, the linear relation of heat transfer to flow velocity, liquid heat carrier, and the thermal insulation of liquid from outside, fundamental equations are obtained. The experimental apparatus was made of acrylic resin. The response of the temperature at the exit of first liquid to the variation of the flow rate of second liquid was measured and compared with the models. The MWR model shows good approximation for the low frequency region, and as the number of division increases, good approximation spreads to higher frequency region. (Kato, T.)

  7. Sensitivity Analysis and Parameter Estimation for a Reactive Transport Model of Uranium Bioremediation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, P. D.; Yabusaki, S.; Curtis, G. P.; Ye, M.; Fang, Y.

    2011-12-01

    A three-dimensional, variably-saturated flow and multicomponent biogeochemical reactive transport model of uranium bioremediation was used to generate synthetic data . The 3-D model was based on a field experiment at the U.S. Dept. of Energy Rifle Integrated Field Research Challenge site that used acetate biostimulation of indigenous metal reducing bacteria to catalyze the conversion of aqueous uranium in the +6 oxidation state to immobile solid-associated uranium in the +4 oxidation state. A key assumption in past modeling studies at this site was that a comprehensive reaction network could be developed largely through one-dimensional modeling. Sensitivity analyses and parameter estimation were completed for a 1-D reactive transport model abstracted from the 3-D model to test this assumption, to identify parameters with the greatest potential to contribute to model predictive uncertainty, and to evaluate model structure and data limitations. Results showed that sensitivities of key biogeochemical concentrations varied in space and time, that model nonlinearities and/or parameter interactions have a significant impact on calculated sensitivities, and that the complexity of the model's representation of processes affecting Fe(II) in the system may make it difficult to correctly attribute observed Fe(II) behavior to modeled processes. Non-uniformity of the 3-D simulated groundwater flux and averaging of the 3-D synthetic data for use as calibration targets in the 1-D modeling resulted in systematic errors in the 1-D model parameter estimates and outputs. This occurred despite using the same reaction network for 1-D modeling as used in the data-generating 3-D model. Predictive uncertainty of the 1-D model appeared to be significantly underestimated by linear parameter uncertainty estimates.

  8. Reservoir theory, groundwater transit time distributions, and lumped parameter models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Etcheverry, D.; Perrochet, P.

    1999-01-01

    The relation between groundwater residence times and transit times is given by the reservoir theory. It allows to calculate theoretical transit time distributions in a deterministic way, analytically, or on numerical models. Two analytical solutions validates the piston flow and the exponential model for simple conceptual flow systems. A numerical solution of a hypothetical regional groundwater flow shows that lumped parameter models could be applied in some cases to large-scale, heterogeneous aquifers. (author)

  9. A dynamic growth model of vegetative soya bean plants: model structure and behaviour under varying root temperature and nitrogen concentration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, J. T.; Wilkerson, G. G.; Raper, C. D. Jr; Gold, H. J.

    1990-01-01

    A differential equation model of vegetative growth of the soya bean plant (Glycine max (L.) Merrill cv. Ransom') was developed to account for plant growth in a phytotron system under variation of root temperature and nitrogen concentration in nutrient solution. The model was tested by comparing model outputs with data from four different experiments. Model predictions agreed fairly well with measured plant performance over a wide range of root temperatures and over a range of nitrogen concentrations in nutrient solution between 0.5 and 10.0 mmol NO3- in the phytotron environment. Sensitivity analyses revealed that the model was most sensitive to changes in parameters relating to carbohydrate concentration in the plant and nitrogen uptake rate.

  10. Phase transition of the susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics on time-varying configuration model networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    St-Onge, Guillaume; Young, Jean-Gabriel; Laurence, Edward; Murphy, Charles; Dubé, Louis J.

    2018-02-01

    We present a degree-based theoretical framework to study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) dynamics on time-varying (rewired) configuration model networks. Using this framework on a given degree distribution, we provide a detailed analysis of the stationary state using the rewiring rate to explore the whole range of the time variation of the structure relative to that of the SIS process. This analysis is suitable for the characterization of the phase transition and leads to three main contributions: (1) We obtain a self-consistent expression for the absorbing-state threshold, able to capture both collective and hub activation. (2) We recover the predictions of a number of existing approaches as limiting cases of our analysis, providing thereby a unifying point of view for the SIS dynamics on random networks. (3) We obtain bounds for the critical exponents of a number of quantities in the stationary state. This allows us to reinterpret the concept of hub-dominated phase transition. Within our framework, it appears as a heterogeneous critical phenomenon: observables for different degree classes have a different scaling with the infection rate. This phenomenon is followed by the successive activation of the degree classes beyond the epidemic threshold.

  11. SPOTting model parameters using a ready-made Python package

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houska, Tobias; Kraft, Philipp; Breuer, Lutz

    2015-04-01

    The selection and parameterization of reliable process descriptions in ecological modelling is driven by several uncertainties. The procedure is highly dependent on various criteria, like the used algorithm, the likelihood function selected and the definition of the prior parameter distributions. A wide variety of tools have been developed in the past decades to optimize parameters. Some of the tools are closed source. Due to this, the choice for a specific parameter estimation method is sometimes more dependent on its availability than the performance. A toolbox with a large set of methods can support users in deciding about the most suitable method. Further, it enables to test and compare different methods. We developed the SPOT (Statistical Parameter Optimization Tool), an open source python package containing a comprehensive set of modules, to analyze and optimize parameters of (environmental) models. SPOT comes along with a selected set of algorithms for parameter optimization and uncertainty analyses (Monte Carlo, MC; Latin Hypercube Sampling, LHS; Maximum Likelihood, MLE; Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC; Scuffled Complex Evolution, SCE-UA; Differential Evolution Markov Chain, DE-MCZ), together with several likelihood functions (Bias, (log-) Nash-Sutcliff model efficiency, Correlation Coefficient, Coefficient of Determination, Covariance, (Decomposed-, Relative-, Root-) Mean Squared Error, Mean Absolute Error, Agreement Index) and prior distributions (Binomial, Chi-Square, Dirichlet, Exponential, Laplace, (log-, multivariate-) Normal, Pareto, Poisson, Cauchy, Uniform, Weibull) to sample from. The model-independent structure makes it suitable to analyze a wide range of applications. We apply all algorithms of the SPOT package in three different case studies. Firstly, we investigate the response of the Rosenbrock function, where the MLE algorithm shows its strengths. Secondly, we study the Griewank function, which has a challenging response surface for

  12. Modelling of intermittent microwave convective drying: parameter sensitivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Zhijun

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The reliability of the predictions of a mathematical model is a prerequisite to its utilization. A multiphase porous media model of intermittent microwave convective drying is developed based on the literature. The model considers the liquid water, gas and solid matrix inside of food. The model is simulated by COMSOL software. Its sensitivity parameter is analysed by changing the parameter values by ±20%, with the exception of several parameters. The sensitivity analysis of the process of the microwave power level shows that each parameter: ambient temperature, effective gas diffusivity, and evaporation rate constant, has significant effects on the process. However, the surface mass, heat transfer coefficient, relative and intrinsic permeability of the gas, and capillary diffusivity of water do not have a considerable effect. The evaporation rate constant has minimal parameter sensitivity with a ±20% value change, until it is changed 10-fold. In all results, the temperature and vapour pressure curves show the same trends as the moisture content curve. However, the water saturation at the medium surface and in the centre show different results. Vapour transfer is the major mass transfer phenomenon that affects the drying process.

  13. Synchronous Generator Model Parameter Estimation Based on Noisy Dynamic Waveforms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berhausen, Sebastian; Paszek, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, there have occurred system failures in many power systems all over the world. They have resulted in a lack of power supply to a large number of recipients. To minimize the risk of occurrence of power failures, it is necessary to perform multivariate investigations, including simulations, of power system operating conditions. To conduct reliable simulations, the current base of parameters of the models of generating units, containing the models of synchronous generators, is necessary. In the paper, there is presented a method for parameter estimation of a synchronous generator nonlinear model based on the analysis of selected transient waveforms caused by introducing a disturbance (in the form of a pseudorandom signal) in the generator voltage regulation channel. The parameter estimation was performed by minimizing the objective function defined as a mean square error for deviations between the measurement waveforms and the waveforms calculated based on the generator mathematical model. A hybrid algorithm was used for the minimization of the objective function. In the paper, there is described a filter system used for filtering the noisy measurement waveforms. The calculation results of the model of a 44 kW synchronous generator installed on a laboratory stand of the Institute of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science of the Silesian University of Technology are also given. The presented estimation method can be successfully applied to parameter estimation of different models of high-power synchronous generators operating in a power system.

  14. Real time damage detection using recursive principal components and time varying auto-regressive modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnan, M.; Bhowmik, B.; Hazra, B.; Pakrashi, V.

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, a novel baseline free approach for continuous online damage detection of multi degree of freedom vibrating structures using Recursive Principal Component Analysis (RPCA) in conjunction with Time Varying Auto-Regressive Modeling (TVAR) is proposed. In this method, the acceleration data is used to obtain recursive proper orthogonal components online using rank-one perturbation method, followed by TVAR modeling of the first transformed response, to detect the change in the dynamic behavior of the vibrating system from its pristine state to contiguous linear/non-linear-states that indicate damage. Most of the works available in the literature deal with algorithms that require windowing of the gathered data owing to their data-driven nature which renders them ineffective for online implementation. Algorithms focussed on mathematically consistent recursive techniques in a rigorous theoretical framework of structural damage detection is missing, which motivates the development of the present framework that is amenable for online implementation which could be utilized along with suite experimental and numerical investigations. The RPCA algorithm iterates the eigenvector and eigenvalue estimates for sample covariance matrices and new data point at each successive time instants, using the rank-one perturbation method. TVAR modeling on the principal component explaining maximum variance is utilized and the damage is identified by tracking the TVAR coefficients. This eliminates the need for offline post processing and facilitates online damage detection especially when applied to streaming data without requiring any baseline data. Numerical simulations performed on a 5-dof nonlinear system under white noise excitation and El Centro (also known as 1940 Imperial Valley earthquake) excitation, for different damage scenarios, demonstrate the robustness of the proposed algorithm. The method is further validated on results obtained from case studies involving

  15. A compact cyclic plasticity model with parameter evolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krenk, Steen; Tidemann, L.

    2017-01-01

    The paper presents a compact model for cyclic plasticity based on energy in terms of external and internal variables, and plastic yielding described by kinematic hardening and a flow potential with an additive term controlling the nonlinear cyclic hardening. The model is basically described by five...... parameters: external and internal stiffness, a yield stress and a limiting ultimate stress, and finally a parameter controlling the gradual development of plastic deformation. Calibration against numerous experimental results indicates that typically larger plastic strains develop than predicted...

  16. A Semiparametric Time Trend Varying Coefficients Model: With An Application to Evaluate Credit Rationing in U.S. Credit Market

    OpenAIRE

    Jingping Gu; Paula Hernandez-Verme

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a new semiparametric varying coefficient model which extends the existing semi-parametric varying coefficient models to allow for a time trend regressor with smooth coefficient function. We propose to use the local linear method to estimate the coefficient functions and we provide the asymptotic theory to describe the asymptotic distribution of the local linear estimator. We present an application to evaluate credit rationing in the U.S. credit market. Using U.S. mon...

  17. A Semiparametric Time Trend Varying Coefficients Model: With An Application to Evaluate Credit Rationing in U.S. Credit Market

    OpenAIRE

    Qi Gao; Jingping Gu; Paula Hernandez-Verme

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a new semiparametric varying coefficient model which extends the existing semi-parametric varying coefficient models to allow for a time trend regressor with smooth coefficient function. We propose to use the local linear method to estimate the coefficient functions and we provide the asymptotic theory to describe the asymptotic distribution of the local linear estimator. We present an application to evaluate credit rationing in the U.S. credit market. Using U.S. mon...

  18. Climate change decision-making: Model & parameter uncertainties explored

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dowlatabadi, H.; Kandlikar, M.; Linville, C.

    1995-12-31

    A critical aspect of climate change decision-making is uncertainties in current understanding of the socioeconomic, climatic and biogeochemical processes involved. Decision-making processes are much better informed if these uncertainties are characterized and their implications understood. Quantitative analysis of these uncertainties serve to inform decision makers about the likely outcome of policy initiatives, and help set priorities for research so that outcome ambiguities faced by the decision-makers are reduced. A family of integrated assessment models of climate change have been developed at Carnegie Mellon. These models are distinguished from other integrated assessment efforts in that they were designed from the outset to characterize and propagate parameter, model, value, and decision-rule uncertainties. The most recent of these models is ICAM 2.1. This model includes representation of the processes of demographics, economic activity, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, climate and sea level change and impacts from these changes and policies for emissions mitigation, and adaptation to change. The model has over 800 objects of which about one half are used to represent uncertainty. In this paper we show, that when considering parameter uncertainties, the relative contribution of climatic uncertainties are most important, followed by uncertainties in damage calculations, economic uncertainties and direct aerosol forcing uncertainties. When considering model structure uncertainties we find that the choice of policy is often dominated by model structure choice, rather than parameter uncertainties.

  19. Parameter estimation in nonlinear models for pesticide degradation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richter, O.; Pestemer, W.; Bunte, D.; Diekkrueger, B.

    1991-01-01

    A wide class of environmental transfer models is formulated as ordinary or partial differential equations. With the availability of fast computers, the numerical solution of large systems became feasible. The main difficulty in performing a realistic and convincing simulation of the fate of a substance in the biosphere is not the implementation of numerical techniques but rather the incomplete data basis for parameter estimation. Parameter estimation is a synonym for statistical and numerical procedures to derive reasonable numerical values for model parameters from data. The classical method is the familiar linear regression technique which dates back to the 18th century. Because it is easy to handle, linear regression has long been established as a convenient tool for analysing relationships. However, the wide use of linear regression has led to an overemphasis of linear relationships. In nature, most relationships are nonlinear and linearization often gives a poor approximation of reality. Furthermore, pure regression models are not capable to map the dynamics of a process. Therefore, realistic models involve the evolution in time (and space). This leads in a natural way to the formulation of differential equations. To establish the link between data and dynamical models, numerical advanced parameter identification methods have been developed in recent years. This paper demonstrates the application of these techniques to estimation problems in the field of pesticide dynamics. (7 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs.)

  20. Global parameter estimation for thermodynamic models of transcriptional regulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suleimenov, Yerzhan; Ay, Ahmet; Samee, Md Abul Hassan; Dresch, Jacqueline M; Sinha, Saurabh; Arnosti, David N

    2013-07-15

    Deciphering the mechanisms involved in gene regulation holds the key to understanding the control of central biological processes, including human disease, population variation, and the evolution of morphological innovations. New experimental techniques including whole genome sequencing and transcriptome analysis have enabled comprehensive modeling approaches to study gene regulation. In many cases, it is useful to be able to assign biological significance to the inferred model parameters, but such interpretation should take into account features that affect these parameters, including model construction and sensitivity, the type of fitness calculation, and the effectiveness of parameter estimation. This last point is often neglected, as estimation methods are often selected for historical reasons or for computational ease. Here, we compare the performance of two parameter estimation techniques broadly representative of local and global approaches, namely, a quasi-Newton/Nelder-Mead simplex (QN/NMS) method and a covariance matrix adaptation-evolutionary strategy (CMA-ES) method. The estimation methods were applied to a set of thermodynamic models of gene transcription applied to regulatory elements active in the Drosophila embryo. Measuring overall fit, the global CMA-ES method performed significantly better than the local QN/NMS method on high quality data sets, but this difference was negligible on lower quality data sets with increased noise or on data sets simplified by stringent thresholding. Our results suggest that the choice of parameter estimation technique for evaluation of gene expression models depends both on quality of data, the nature of the models [again, remains to be established] and the aims of the modeling effort. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Wasiolek

    2006-06-05

    This analysis is one of the technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), referred to in this report as the biosphere model. ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'' is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the biosphere model is presented in Figure 1-1 (based on BSC 2006 [DIRS 176938]). This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This analysis report defines and justifies values of atmospheric mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of the biosphere model to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception. This

  2. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M. Wasiolek

    2006-01-01

    This analysis is one of the technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), referred to in this report as the biosphere model. ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'' is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the biosphere model is presented in Figure 1-1 (based on BSC 2006 [DIRS 176938]). This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This analysis report defines and justifies values of atmospheric mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of the biosphere model to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception. This report is concerned primarily with the

  3. Influence of parameter values on the oscillation sensitivities of two p53-Mdm2 models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuba, Christian E; Valle, Alexander R; Ayala-Charca, Giancarlo; Villota, Elizabeth R; Coronado, Alberto M

    2015-09-01

    Biomolecular networks that present oscillatory behavior are ubiquitous in nature. While some design principles for robust oscillations have been identified, it is not well understood how these oscillations are affected when the kinetic parameters are constantly changing or are not precisely known, as often occurs in cellular environments. Many models of diverse complexity level, for systems such as circadian rhythms, cell cycle or the p53 network, have been proposed. Here we assess the influence of hundreds of different parameter sets on the sensitivities of two configurations of a well-known oscillatory system, the p53 core network. We show that, for both models and all parameter sets, the parameter related to the p53 positive feedback, i.e. self-promotion, is the only one that presents sizeable sensitivities on extrema, periods and delay. Moreover, varying the parameter set values to change the dynamical characteristics of the response is more restricted in the simple model, whereas the complex model shows greater tunability. These results highlight the importance of the presence of specific network patterns, in addition to the role of parameter values, when we want to characterize oscillatory biochemical systems.

  4. The level density parameters for fermi gas model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zuang Youxiang; Wang Cuilan; Zhou Chunmei; Su Zongdi

    1986-01-01

    Nuclear level densities are crucial ingredient in the statistical models, for instance, in the calculations of the widths, cross sections, emitted particle spectra, etc. for various reaction channels. In this work 667 sets of more reliable and new experimental data are adopted, which include average level spacing D D , radiative capture width Γ γ 0 at neutron binding energy and cumulative level number N 0 at the low excitation energy. They are published during 1973 to 1983. Based on the parameters given by Gilbert-Cameon and Cook the physical quantities mentioned above are calculated. The calculated results have the deviation obviously from experimental values. In order to improve the fitting, the parameters in the G-C formula are adjusted and new set of level density parameters is obsained. The parameters is this work are more suitable to fit new measurements

  5. Hydrological model performance and parameter estimation in the wavelet-domain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Schaefli

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a method for rainfall-runoff model calibration and performance analysis in the wavelet-domain by fitting the estimated wavelet-power spectrum (a representation of the time-varying frequency content of a time series of a simulated discharge series to the one of the corresponding observed time series. As discussed in this paper, calibrating hydrological models so as to reproduce the time-varying frequency content of the observed signal can lead to different results than parameter estimation in the time-domain. Therefore, wavelet-domain parameter estimation has the potential to give new insights into model performance and to reveal model structural deficiencies. We apply the proposed method to synthetic case studies and a real-world discharge modeling case study and discuss how model diagnosis can benefit from an analysis in the wavelet-domain. The results show that for the real-world case study of precipitation – runoff modeling for a high alpine catchment, the calibrated discharge simulation captures the dynamics of the observed time series better than the results obtained through calibration in the time-domain. In addition, the wavelet-domain performance assessment of this case study highlights the frequencies that are not well reproduced by the model, which gives specific indications about how to improve the model structure.

  6. Iterative integral parameter identification of a respiratory mechanics model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schranz, Christoph; Docherty, Paul D; Chiew, Yeong Shiong; Möller, Knut; Chase, J Geoffrey

    2012-07-18

    Patient-specific respiratory mechanics models can support the evaluation of optimal lung protective ventilator settings during ventilation therapy. Clinical application requires that the individual's model parameter values must be identified with information available at the bedside. Multiple linear regression or gradient-based parameter identification methods are highly sensitive to noise and initial parameter estimates. Thus, they are difficult to apply at the bedside to support therapeutic decisions. An iterative integral parameter identification method is applied to a second order respiratory mechanics model. The method is compared to the commonly used regression methods and error-mapping approaches using simulated and clinical data. The clinical potential of the method was evaluated on data from 13 Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) patients. The iterative integral method converged to error minima 350 times faster than the Simplex Search Method using simulation data sets and 50 times faster using clinical data sets. Established regression methods reported erroneous results due to sensitivity to noise. In contrast, the iterative integral method was effective independent of initial parameter estimations, and converged successfully in each case tested. These investigations reveal that the iterative integral method is beneficial with respect to computing time, operator independence and robustness, and thus applicable at the bedside for this clinical application.

  7. Iterative integral parameter identification of a respiratory mechanics model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schranz Christoph

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Patient-specific respiratory mechanics models can support the evaluation of optimal lung protective ventilator settings during ventilation therapy. Clinical application requires that the individual’s model parameter values must be identified with information available at the bedside. Multiple linear regression or gradient-based parameter identification methods are highly sensitive to noise and initial parameter estimates. Thus, they are difficult to apply at the bedside to support therapeutic decisions. Methods An iterative integral parameter identification method is applied to a second order respiratory mechanics model. The method is compared to the commonly used regression methods and error-mapping approaches using simulated and clinical data. The clinical potential of the method was evaluated on data from 13 Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS patients. Results The iterative integral method converged to error minima 350 times faster than the Simplex Search Method using simulation data sets and 50 times faster using clinical data sets. Established regression methods reported erroneous results due to sensitivity to noise. In contrast, the iterative integral method was effective independent of initial parameter estimations, and converged successfully in each case tested. Conclusion These investigations reveal that the iterative integral method is beneficial with respect to computing time, operator independence and robustness, and thus applicable at the bedside for this clinical application.

  8. Impulsive synchronization and parameter mismatch of the three-variable autocatalator model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Yang; Liao, Xiaofeng; Li, Chuandong; Huang, Tingwen; Yang, Degang

    2007-01-01

    The synchronization problems of the three-variable autocatalator model via impulsive control approach are investigated; several theorems on the stability of impulsive control systems are also investigated. These theorems are then used to find the conditions under which the three-variable autocatalator model can be asymptotically controlled to the equilibrium point. This Letter derives some sufficient conditions for the stabilization and synchronization of a three-variable autocatalator model via impulsive control with varying impulsive intervals. Furthermore, we address the chaos quasi-synchronization in the presence of single-parameter mismatch. To illustrate the effectiveness of the new scheme, several numerical examples are given

  9. MODELLING BIOPHYSICAL PARAMETERS OF MAIZE USING LANDSAT 8 TIME SERIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Dahms

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Open and free access to multi-frequent high-resolution data (e.g. Sentinel – 2 will fortify agricultural applications based on satellite data. The temporal and spatial resolution of these remote sensing datasets directly affects the applicability of remote sensing methods, for instance a robust retrieving of biophysical parameters over the entire growing season with very high geometric resolution. In this study we use machine learning methods to predict biophysical parameters, namely the fraction of absorbed photosynthetic radiation (FPAR, the leaf area index (LAI and the chlorophyll content, from high resolution remote sensing. 30 Landsat 8 OLI scenes were available in our study region in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Germany. In-situ data were weekly to bi-weekly collected on 18 maize plots throughout the summer season 2015. The study aims at an optimized prediction of biophysical parameters and the identification of the best explaining spectral bands and vegetation indices. For this purpose, we used the entire in-situ dataset from 24.03.2015 to 15.10.2015. Random forest and conditional inference forests were used because of their explicit strong exploratory and predictive character. Variable importance measures allowed for analysing the relation between the biophysical parameters with respect to the spectral response, and the performance of the two approaches over the plant stock evolvement. Classical random forest regression outreached the performance of conditional inference forests, in particular when modelling the biophysical parameters over the entire growing period. For example, modelling biophysical parameters of maize for the entire vegetation period using random forests yielded: FPAR: R² = 0.85; RMSE = 0.11; LAI: R² = 0.64; RMSE = 0.9 and chlorophyll content (SPAD: R² = 0.80; RMSE=4.9. Our results demonstrate the great potential in using machine-learning methods for the interpretation of long-term multi-frequent remote sensing

  10. Modelling Biophysical Parameters of Maize Using Landsat 8 Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahms, Thorsten; Seissiger, Sylvia; Conrad, Christopher; Borg, Erik

    2016-06-01

    Open and free access to multi-frequent high-resolution data (e.g. Sentinel - 2) will fortify agricultural applications based on satellite data. The temporal and spatial resolution of these remote sensing datasets directly affects the applicability of remote sensing methods, for instance a robust retrieving of biophysical parameters over the entire growing season with very high geometric resolution. In this study we use machine learning methods to predict biophysical parameters, namely the fraction of absorbed photosynthetic radiation (FPAR), the leaf area index (LAI) and the chlorophyll content, from high resolution remote sensing. 30 Landsat 8 OLI scenes were available in our study region in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Germany. In-situ data were weekly to bi-weekly collected on 18 maize plots throughout the summer season 2015. The study aims at an optimized prediction of biophysical parameters and the identification of the best explaining spectral bands and vegetation indices. For this purpose, we used the entire in-situ dataset from 24.03.2015 to 15.10.2015. Random forest and conditional inference forests were used because of their explicit strong exploratory and predictive character. Variable importance measures allowed for analysing the relation between the biophysical parameters with respect to the spectral response, and the performance of the two approaches over the plant stock evolvement. Classical random forest regression outreached the performance of conditional inference forests, in particular when modelling the biophysical parameters over the entire growing period. For example, modelling biophysical parameters of maize for the entire vegetation period using random forests yielded: FPAR: R² = 0.85; RMSE = 0.11; LAI: R² = 0.64; RMSE = 0.9 and chlorophyll content (SPAD): R² = 0.80; RMSE=4.9. Our results demonstrate the great potential in using machine-learning methods for the interpretation of long-term multi-frequent remote sensing datasets to model

  11. Recommended Parameter Values for GENII Modeling of Radionuclides in Routine Air and Water Releases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Snyder, Sandra F. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Arimescu, Carmen [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Napier, Bruce A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hay, Tristan R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2012-11-01

    The GENII v2 code is used to estimate dose to individuals or populations from the release of radioactive materials into air or water. Numerous parameter values are required for input into this code. User-defined parameters cover the spectrum from chemical data, meteorological data, agricultural data, and behavioral data. This document is a summary of parameter values that reflect conditions in the United States. Reasonable regional and age-dependent data is summarized. Data availability and quality varies. The set of parameters described address scenarios for chronic air emissions or chronic releases to public waterways. Considerations for the special tritium and carbon-14 models are briefly addressed. GENIIv2.10.0 is the current software version that this document supports.

  12. Assessing composition and structure of soft biphasic media from Kelvin-Voigt fractional derivative model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hongmei; Wang, Yue; Fatemi, Mostafa; Insana, Michael F.

    2017-03-01

    Kelvin-Voigt fractional derivative (KVFD) model parameters have been used to describe viscoelastic properties of soft tissues. However, translating model parameters into a concise set of intrinsic mechanical properties related to tissue composition and structure remains challenging. This paper begins by exploring these relationships using a biphasic emulsion materials with known composition. Mechanical properties are measured by analyzing data from two indentation techniques—ramp-stress relaxation and load-unload hysteresis tests. Material composition is predictably correlated with viscoelastic model parameters. Model parameters estimated from the tests reveal that elastic modulus E 0 closely approximates the shear modulus for pure gelatin. Fractional-order parameter α and time constant τ vary monotonically with the volume fraction of the material’s fluid component. α characterizes medium fluidity and the rate of energy dissipation, and τ is a viscous time constant. Numerical simulations suggest that the viscous coefficient η is proportional to the energy lost during quasi-static force-displacement cycles, E A . The slope of E A versus η is determined by α and the applied indentation ramp time T r. Experimental measurements from phantom and ex vivo liver data show close agreement with theoretical predictions of the η -{{E}A} relation. The relative error is less than 20% for emulsions 22% for liver. We find that KVFD model parameters form a concise features space for biphasic medium characterization that described time-varying mechanical properties. The experimental work was carried out at the Beckman Institute for Advanced Science and Technology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, USA. Methodological development, including numerical simulation and all data analysis, were carried out at the school of Life Science and Technology, Xi’an JiaoTong University, 710049, China.

  13. Parameter sensitivity analysis of a lumped-parameter model of a chain of lymphangions in series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamalian, Samira; Bertram, Christopher D; Richardson, William J; Moore, James E

    2013-12-01

    Any disruption of the lymphatic system due to trauma or injury can lead to edema. There is no effective cure for lymphedema, partly because predictive knowledge of lymphatic system reactions to interventions is lacking. A well-developed model of the system could greatly improve our understanding of its function. Lymphangions, defined as the vessel segment between two valves, are the individual pumping units. Based on our previous lumped-parameter model of a chain of lymphangions, this study aimed to identify the parameters that affect the system output the most using a sensitivity analysis. The system was highly sensitive to minimum valve resistance, such that variations in this parameter caused an order-of-magnitude change in time-average flow rate for certain values of imposed pressure difference. Average flow rate doubled when contraction frequency was increased within its physiological range. Optimum lymphangion length was found to be some 13-14.5 diameters. A peak of time-average flow rate occurred when transmural pressure was such that the pressure-diameter loop for active contractions was centered near maximum passive vessel compliance. Increasing the number of lymphangions in the chain improved the pumping in the presence of larger adverse pressure differences. For a given pressure difference, the optimal number of lymphangions increased with the total vessel length. These results indicate that further experiments to estimate valve resistance more accurately are necessary. The existence of an optimal value of transmural pressure may provide additional guidelines for increasing pumping in areas affected by edema.

  14. X-Parameter Based Modelling of Polar Modulated Power Amplifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Yelin; Nielsen, Troels Studsgaard; Sira, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    X-parameters are developed as an extension of S-parameters capable of modelling non-linear devices driven by large signals. They are suitable for devices having only radio frequency (RF) and DC ports. In a polar power amplifier (PA), phase and envelope of the input modulated signal are applied...... at separate ports and the envelope port is neither an RF nor a DC port. As a result, X-parameters may fail to characterise the effect of the envelope port excitation and consequently the polar PA. This study introduces a solution to the problem for a commercial polar PA. In this solution, the RF-phase path...... PA for simulations. The simulated error vector magnitude (EVM) and adjacent channel power ratio (ACPR) were compared with the measured data to validate the model. The maximum differences between the simulated and measured EVM and ACPR are less than 2% point and 3 dB, respectively....

  15. Identifiability and error minimization of receptor model parameters with PET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delforge, J.; Syrota, A.; Mazoyer, B.M.

    1989-01-01

    The identifiability problem and the general framework for experimental design optimization are presented. The methodology is applied to the problem of the receptor-ligand model parameter estimation with dynamic positron emission tomography data. The first attempts to identify the model parameters from data obtained with a single tracer injection led to disappointing numerical results. The possibility of improving parameter estimation using a new experimental design combining an injection of the labelled ligand and an injection of the cold ligand (displacement experiment) has been investigated. However, this second protocol led to two very different numerical solutions and it was necessary to demonstrate which solution was biologically valid. This has been possible by using a third protocol including both a displacement and a co-injection experiment. (authors). 16 refs.; 14 figs

  16. Prediction of interest rate using CKLS model with stochastic parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ying, Khor Chia; Hin, Pooi Ah

    2014-01-01

    The Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff and Sanders (CKLS) model is a popular one-factor model for describing the spot interest rates. In this paper, the four parameters in the CKLS model are regarded as stochastic. The parameter vector φ (j) of four parameters at the (J+n)-th time point is estimated by the j-th window which is defined as the set consisting of the observed interest rates at the j′-th time point where j≤j′≤j+n. To model the variation of φ (j) , we assume that φ (j) depends on φ (j−m) , φ (j−m+1) ,…, φ (j−1) and the interest rate r j+n at the (j+n)-th time point via a four-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a [4(m+1)+1]-dimensional power-normal distribution. Treating the (j+n)-th time point as the present time point, we find a prediction interval for the future value r j+n+1 of the interest rate at the next time point when the value r j+n of the interest rate is given. From the above four-dimensional conditional distribution, we also find a prediction interval for the future interest rate r j+n+d at the next d-th (d≥2) time point. The prediction intervals based on the CKLS model with stochastic parameters are found to have better ability of covering the observed future interest rates when compared with those based on the model with fixed parameters

  17. Model parameters estimation and sensitivity by genetic algorithms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marseguerra, Marzio; Zio, Enrico; Podofillini, Luca

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we illustrate the possibility of extracting qualitative information on the importance of the parameters of a model in the course of a Genetic Algorithms (GAs) optimization procedure for the estimation of such parameters. The Genetic Algorithms' search of the optimal solution is performed according to procedures that resemble those of natural selection and genetics: an initial population of alternative solutions evolves within the search space through the four fundamental operations of parent selection, crossover, replacement, and mutation. During the search, the algorithm examines a large amount of solution points which possibly carries relevant information on the underlying model characteristics. A possible utilization of this information amounts to create and update an archive with the set of best solutions found at each generation and then to analyze the evolution of the statistics of the archive along the successive generations. From this analysis one can retrieve information regarding the speed of convergence and stabilization of the different control (decision) variables of the optimization problem. In this work we analyze the evolution strategy followed by a GA in its search for the optimal solution with the aim of extracting information on the importance of the control (decision) variables of the optimization with respect to the sensitivity of the objective function. The study refers to a GA search for optimal estimates of the effective parameters in a lumped nuclear reactor model of literature. The supporting observation is that, as most optimization procedures do, the GA search evolves towards convergence in such a way to stabilize first the most important parameters of the model and later those which influence little the model outputs. In this sense, besides estimating efficiently the parameters values, the optimization approach also allows us to provide a qualitative ranking of their importance in contributing to the model output. The

  18. Prediction of interest rate using CKLS model with stochastic parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ying, Khor Chia [Faculty of Computing and Informatics, Multimedia University, Jalan Multimedia, 63100 Cyberjaya, Selangor (Malaysia); Hin, Pooi Ah [Sunway University Business School, No. 5, Jalan Universiti, Bandar Sunway, 47500 Subang Jaya, Selangor (Malaysia)

    2014-06-19

    The Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff and Sanders (CKLS) model is a popular one-factor model for describing the spot interest rates. In this paper, the four parameters in the CKLS model are regarded as stochastic. The parameter vector φ{sup (j)} of four parameters at the (J+n)-th time point is estimated by the j-th window which is defined as the set consisting of the observed interest rates at the j′-th time point where j≤j′≤j+n. To model the variation of φ{sup (j)}, we assume that φ{sup (j)} depends on φ{sup (j−m)}, φ{sup (j−m+1)},…, φ{sup (j−1)} and the interest rate r{sub j+n} at the (j+n)-th time point via a four-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a [4(m+1)+1]-dimensional power-normal distribution. Treating the (j+n)-th time point as the present time point, we find a prediction interval for the future value r{sub j+n+1} of the interest rate at the next time point when the value r{sub j+n} of the interest rate is given. From the above four-dimensional conditional distribution, we also find a prediction interval for the future interest rate r{sub j+n+d} at the next d-th (d≥2) time point. The prediction intervals based on the CKLS model with stochastic parameters are found to have better ability of covering the observed future interest rates when compared with those based on the model with fixed parameters.

  19. Quantifying geographic variation in the climatic drivers of midcontinent wetlands with a spatially varying coefficient model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Christian

    2015-01-01

    The wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region and in the Great Plains are notorious for their sensitivity to weather variability. These wetlands have been the focus of considerable attention because of their ecological importance and because of the expected impact of climate change. Few models in the literature, however, take into account spatial variation in the importance of wetland drivers. This is surprising given the importance spatial heterogeneity in geomorphology and climatic conditions have in the region. In this paper, I use spatially-varying coefficients to assess the variation in ecological drivers in a number of ponds observed over a 50-year period (1961-2012). I included the number of ponds observed the year before on a log scale, the log of total precipitation, and mean maximum temperature during the four previous seasons as explanatory variables. I also included a temporal component to capture change in the number of ponds due to anthropogenic disturbance. Overall, fall and spring precipitation were most important in pond abundance in the west, whereas winter and summer precipitation were the most important drivers in the east. The ponds in the east of the survey area were also more dependent on pond abundance during the previous year than those in the west. Spring temperature during the previous season influenced pond abundance; while the temperature during the other seasons had a limited effect. The ponds in the southwestern part of the survey area have been increasing independently of climatic conditions, whereas the ponds in the northeast have been steadily declining. My results underline the importance of accounting the spatial heterogeneity in environmental drivers, when working at large spatial scales. In light of my results, I also argue that assessing the impacts of climate change on wetland abundance in the spring, without more accurate climatic forecasting, will be difficult.

  20. Quantifying geographic variation in the climatic drivers of midcontinent wetlands with a spatially varying coefficient model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Roy

    Full Text Available The wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region and in the Great Plains are notorious for their sensitivity to weather variability. These wetlands have been the focus of considerable attention because of their ecological importance and because of the expected impact of climate change. Few models in the literature, however, take into account spatial variation in the importance of wetland drivers. This is surprising given the importance spatial heterogeneity in geomorphology and climatic conditions have in the region. In this paper, I use spatially-varying coefficients to assess the variation in ecological drivers in a number of ponds observed over a 50-year period (1961-2012. I included the number of ponds observed the year before on a log scale, the log of total precipitation, and mean maximum temperature during the four previous seasons as explanatory variables. I also included a temporal component to capture change in the number of ponds due to anthropogenic disturbance. Overall, fall and spring precipitation were most important in pond abundance in the west, whereas winter and summer precipitation were the most important drivers in the east. The ponds in the east of the survey area were also more dependent on pond abundance during the previous year than those in the west. Spring temperature during the previous season influenced pond abundance; while the temperature during the other seasons had a limited effect. The ponds in the southwestern part of the survey area have been increasing independently of climatic conditions, whereas the ponds in the northeast have been steadily declining. My results underline the importance of accounting the spatial heterogeneity in environmental drivers, when working at large spatial scales. In light of my results, I also argue that assessing the impacts of climate change on wetland abundance in the spring, without more accurate climatic forecasting, will be difficult.

  1. Mathematical models to predict rheological parameters of lateritic hydromixtures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Hernández-Ramírez

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The present work had as objective to establish mathematical models that allow the prognosis of the rheological parameters of the lateritic pulp at concentrations of solids from 35% to 48%, temperature of the preheated hydromixture superior to 82 ° C and number of mineral between 3 and 16. Four samples of lateritic pulp were used in the study at different process locations. The results allowed defining that the plastic properties of the lateritic pulp in the conditions of this study conform to the Herschel-Bulkley model for real plastics. In addition, they show that for current operating conditions, even for new situations, UPD mathematical models have a greater ability to predict rheological parameters than least squares mathematical models.

  2. Averaging models: parameters estimation with the R-Average procedure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Noventa

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The Functional Measurement approach, proposed within the theoretical framework of Information Integration Theory (Anderson, 1981, 1982, can be a useful multi-attribute analysis tool. Compared to the majority of statistical models, the averaging model can account for interaction effects without adding complexity. The R-Average method (Vidotto & Vicentini, 2007 can be used to estimate the parameters of these models. By the use of multiple information criteria in the model selection procedure, R-Average allows for the identification of the best subset of parameters that account for the data. After a review of the general method, we present an implementation of the procedure in the framework of R-project, followed by some experiments using a Monte Carlo method.

  3. A mathematical model for the movement of food bolus of varying viscosities through the esophagus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathi, Dharmendra

    2011-09-01

    This mathematical model is designed to study the influence of viscosity on swallowing of food bolus through the esophagus. Food bolus is considered as viscous fluid with variable viscosity. Geometry of esophagus is assumed as finite length channel and flow is induced by peristaltic wave along the length of channel walls. The expressions for axial velocity, transverse velocity, pressure gradient, volume flow rate and stream function are obtained under the assumptions of long wavelength and low Reynolds number. The impacts of viscosity parameter on pressure distribution, local wall shear stress, mechanical efficiency and trapping are numerically discussed with the help of computational results. On the basis of presented study, it is revealed that swallowing of low viscous fluids through esophagus requires less effort in comparison to fluids of higher viscosity. This result is similar to the experimental result obtained by Raut et al. [1], Dodds [2] and Ren et al. [3]. It is further concluded that the pumping efficiency increases while size of trapped bolus reduces when viscosity of fluid is high.

  4. Revised Parameters for the AMOEBA Polarizable Atomic Multipole Water Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pande, Vijay S.; Head-Gordon, Teresa; Ponder, Jay W.

    2016-01-01

    A set of improved parameters for the AMOEBA polarizable atomic multipole water model is developed. The protocol uses an automated procedure, ForceBalance, to adjust model parameters to enforce agreement with ab initio-derived results for water clusters and experimentally obtained data for a variety of liquid phase properties across a broad temperature range. The values reported here for the new AMOEBA14 water model represent a substantial improvement over the previous AMOEBA03 model. The new AMOEBA14 water model accurately predicts the temperature of maximum density and qualitatively matches the experimental density curve across temperatures ranging from 249 K to 373 K. Excellent agreement is observed for the AMOEBA14 model in comparison to a variety of experimental properties as a function of temperature, including the 2nd virial coefficient, enthalpy of vaporization, isothermal compressibility, thermal expansion coefficient and dielectric constant. The viscosity, self-diffusion constant and surface tension are also well reproduced. In comparison to high-level ab initio results for clusters of 2 to 20 water molecules, the AMOEBA14 model yields results similar to the AMOEBA03 and the direct polarization iAMOEBA models. With advances in computing power, calibration data, and optimization techniques, we recommend the use of the AMOEBA14 water model for future studies employing a polarizable water model. PMID:25683601

  5. Comparisons of criteria in the assessment model parameter optimizations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Xinhe; Zhang Yongxing

    1993-01-01

    Three criteria (chi square, relative chi square and correlation coefficient) used in model parameter optimization (MPO) process that aims at significant reduction of prediction uncertainties were discussed and compared to each other with the aid of a well-controlled tracer experiment

  6. Revised models and genetic parameter estimates for production and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Genetic parameters for production and reproduction traits in the Elsenburg Dormer sheep stud were estimated using records of 11743 lambs born between 1943 and 2002. An animal model with direct and maternal additive, maternal permanent and temporary environmental effects was fitted for traits considered traits of the ...

  7. Determination of parameters in elasto-plastic models of aluminium.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meuwissen, M.H.H.; Oomens, C.W.J.; Baaijens, F.P.T.; Petterson, R.; Janssen, J.D.; Sol, H.; Oomens, C.W.J.

    1997-01-01

    A mixed numerical-experimental method is used to determine parameters in elasto-plastic constitutive models. An aluminium plate of non-standard geometry is mounted in a uniaxial tensile testing machine at which some adjustments are made to carry out shear tests. The sample is loaded and the total

  8. Parameter Estimation for a Computable General Equilibrium Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Robinson, Sherman; Tarp, Finn

    2002-01-01

    We introduce a maximum entropy approach to parameter estimation for computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The approach applies information theory to estimating a system of non-linear simultaneous equations. It has a number of advantages. First, it imposes all general equilibrium constraints...

  9. Parameter Estimation for a Computable General Equilibrium Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Robinson, Sherman; Tarp, Finn

    We introduce a maximum entropy approach to parameter estimation for computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The approach applies information theory to estimating a system of nonlinear simultaneous equations. It has a number of advantages. First, it imposes all general equilibrium constraints...

  10. Do Lumped-Parameter Models Provide the Correct Geometrical Damping?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars

    response during excitation and the geometrical damping related to free vibrations of a hexagonal footing. The optimal order of a lumped-parameter model is determined for each degree of freedom, i.e. horizontal and vertical translation as well as torsion and rocking. In particular, the necessity of coupling...... between horizontal sliding and rocking is discussed....

  11. Key processes and input parameters for environmental tritium models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunnenberg, C.; Taschner, M.; Ogram, G.L.

    1994-01-01

    The primary objective of the work reported here is to define key processes and input parameters for mathematical models of environmental tritium behaviour adequate for use in safety analysis and licensing of fusion devices like NET and associated tritium handling facilities. (author). 45 refs., 3 figs

  12. Key processes and input parameters for environmental tritium models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bunnenberg, C; Taschner, M [Niedersaechsisches Inst. fuer Radiooekologie, Hannover (Germany); Ogram, G L [Ontario Hydro, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    1994-12-31

    The primary objective of the work reported here is to define key processes and input parameters for mathematical models of environmental tritium behaviour adequate for use in safety analysis and licensing of fusion devices like NET and associated tritium handling facilities. (author). 45 refs., 3 figs.

  13. Models of few optical cycle solitons beyond the slowly varying envelope approximation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leblond, H.; Mihalache, D.

    2013-01-01

    In the past years there was a huge interest in experimental and theoretical studies in the area of few-optical-cycle pulses and in the broader fast growing field of the so-called extreme nonlinear optics. This review concentrates on theoretical studies performed in the past decade concerning the description of few optical cycle solitons beyond the slowly varying envelope approximation (SVEA). Here we systematically use the powerful reductive expansion method (alias multiscale analysis) in order to derive simple integrable and nonintegrable evolution models describing both nonlinear wave propagation and interaction of ultrashort (femtosecond) pulses. To this aim we perform the multiple scale analysis on the Maxwell–Bloch equations and the corresponding Schrödinger–von Neumann equation for the density matrix of two-level atoms. We analyze in detail both long-wave and short-wave propagation models. The propagation of ultrashort few-optical-cycle solitons in quadratic and cubic nonlinear media are adequately described by generic integrable and nonintegrable nonlinear evolution equations such as the Korteweg–de Vries equation, the modified Korteweg–de Vries equation, the complex modified Korteweg–de Vries equation, the sine–Gordon equation, the cubic generalized Kadomtsev–Petviashvili equation, and the two-dimensional sine–Gordon equation. Moreover, we consider the propagation of few-cycle optical solitons in both (1+1)- and (2+1)-dimensional physical settings. A generalized modified Korteweg–de Vries equation is introduced in order to describe robust few-optical-cycle dissipative solitons. We investigate in detail the existence and robustness of both linearly polarized and circularly polarized few-cycle solitons, that is, we also take into account the effect of the vectorial nature of the electric field. Some of these results concerning the systematic use of the reductive expansion method beyond the SVEA can be relatively easily extended to few

  14. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-09-24

    This analysis is one of the nine reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003a) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents a set of input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. This report, ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2003b). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development at the time this report is issued and therefore not available at that time. This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this analysis report. This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading, which is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Measurements of mass loading are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air surrounding crops and concentrations in air

  15. Integrating microbial diversity in soil carbon dynamic models parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louis, Benjamin; Menasseri-Aubry, Safya; Leterme, Philippe; Maron, Pierre-Alain; Viaud, Valérie

    2015-04-01

    Faced with the numerous concerns about soil carbon dynamic, a large quantity of carbon dynamic models has been developed during the last century. These models are mainly in the form of deterministic compartment models with carbon fluxes between compartments represented by ordinary differential equations. Nowadays, lots of them consider the microbial biomass as a compartment of the soil organic matter (carbon quantity). But the amount of microbial carbon is rarely used in the differential equations of the models as a limiting factor. Additionally, microbial diversity and community composition are mostly missing, although last advances in soil microbial analytical methods during the two past decades have shown that these characteristics play also a significant role in soil carbon dynamic. As soil microorganisms are essential drivers of soil carbon dynamic, the question about explicitly integrating their role have become a key issue in soil carbon dynamic models development. Some interesting attempts can be found and are dominated by the incorporation of several compartments of different groups of microbial biomass in terms of functional traits and/or biogeochemical compositions to integrate microbial diversity. However, these models are basically heuristic models in the sense that they are used to test hypotheses through simulations. They have rarely been confronted to real data and thus cannot be used to predict realistic situations. The objective of this work was to empirically integrate microbial diversity in a simple model of carbon dynamic through statistical modelling of the model parameters. This work is based on available experimental results coming from a French National Research Agency program called DIMIMOS. Briefly, 13C-labelled wheat residue has been incorporated into soils with different pedological characteristics and land use history. Then, the soils have been incubated during 104 days and labelled and non-labelled CO2 fluxes have been measured at ten

  16. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-01-01

    This analysis is one of the nine reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003a) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents a set of input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. This report, ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2003b). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development at the time this report is issued and therefore not available at that time. This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this analysis report. This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading, which is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Measurements of mass loading are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air surrounding crops and concentrations in air inhaled by a receptor. Concentrations in air to which the

  17. Uncertainty analyses of the calibrated parameter values of a water quality model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rode, M.; Suhr, U.; Lindenschmidt, K.-E.

    2003-04-01

    For river basin management water quality models are increasingly used for the analysis and evaluation of different management measures. However substantial uncertainties exist in parameter values depending on the available calibration data. In this paper an uncertainty analysis for a water quality model is presented, which considers the impact of available model calibration data and the variance of input variables. The investigation was conducted based on four extensive flowtime related longitudinal surveys in the River Elbe in the years 1996 to 1999 with varying discharges and seasonal conditions. For the model calculations the deterministic model QSIM of the BfG (Germany) was used. QSIM is a one dimensional water quality model and uses standard algorithms for hydrodynamics and phytoplankton dynamics in running waters, e.g. Michaelis Menten/Monod kinetics, which are used in a wide range of models. The multi-objective calibration of the model was carried out with the nonlinear parameter estimator PEST. The results show that for individual flow time related measuring surveys very good agreements between model calculation and measured values can be obtained. If these parameters are applied to deviating boundary conditions, substantial errors in model calculation can occur. These uncertainties can be decreased with an increased calibration database. More reliable model parameters can be identified, which supply reasonable results for broader boundary conditions. The extension of the application of the parameter set on a wider range of water quality conditions leads to a slight reduction of the model precision for the specific water quality situation. Moreover the investigations show that highly variable water quality variables like the algal biomass always allow a smaller forecast accuracy than variables with lower coefficients of variation like e.g. nitrate.

  18. Structural observability analysis and EKF based parameter estimation of building heating models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.W.U. Perera

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Research for enhanced energy-efficient buildings has been given much recognition in the recent years owing to their high energy consumptions. Increasing energy needs can be precisely controlled by practicing advanced controllers for building Heating, Ventilation, and Air-Conditioning (HVAC systems. Advanced controllers require a mathematical building heating model to operate, and these models need to be accurate and computationally efficient. One main concern associated with such models is the accurate estimation of the unknown model parameters. This paper presents the feasibility of implementing a simplified building heating model and the computation of physical parameters using an off-line approach. Structural observability analysis is conducted using graph-theoretic techniques to analyze the observability of the developed system model. Then Extended Kalman Filter (EKF algorithm is utilized for parameter estimates using the real measurements of a single-zone building. The simulation-based results confirm that even with a simple model, the EKF follows the state variables accurately. The predicted parameters vary depending on the inputs and disturbances.

  19. Effects of reaction-kinetic parameters on modeling reaction pathways in GaN MOVPE growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hong; Zuo, Ran; Zhang, Guoyi

    2017-11-01

    In the modeling of the reaction-transport process in GaN MOVPE growth, the selections of kinetic parameters (activation energy Ea and pre-exponential factor A) for gas reactions are quite uncertain, which cause uncertainties in both gas reaction path and growth rate. In this study, numerical modeling of the reaction-transport process for GaN MOVPE growth in a vertical rotating disk reactor is conducted with varying kinetic parameters for main reaction paths. By comparisons of the molar concentrations of major Ga-containing species and the growth rates, the effects of kinetic parameters on gas reaction paths are determined. The results show that, depending on the values of the kinetic parameters, the gas reaction path may be dominated either by adduct/amide formation path, or by TMG pyrolysis path, or by both. Although the reaction path varies with different kinetic parameters, the predicted growth rates change only slightly because the total transport rate of Ga-containing species to the substrate changes slightly with reaction paths. This explains why previous authors using different chemical models predicted growth rates close to the experiment values. By varying the pre-exponential factor for the amide trimerization, it is found that the more trimers are formed, the lower the growth rates are than the experimental value, which indicates that trimers are poor growth precursors, because of thermal diffusion effect caused by high temperature gradient. The effective order for the contribution of major species to growth rate is found as: pyrolysis species > amides > trimers. The study also shows that radical reactions have little effect on gas reaction path because of the generation and depletion of H radicals in the chain reactions when NH2 is considered as the end species.

  20. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    K. Rasmuson; K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-09-14

    This analysis is one of 10 technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) (i.e., the biosphere model). It documents development of agricultural and environmental input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters.

  1. Evaluation of some infiltration models and hydraulic parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haghighi, F.; Gorji, M.; Shorafa, M.; Sarmadian, F.; Mohammadi, M. H.

    2010-01-01

    The evaluation of infiltration characteristics and some parameters of infiltration models such as sorptivity and final steady infiltration rate in soils are important in agriculture. The aim of this study was to evaluate some of the most common models used to estimate final soil infiltration rate. The equality of final infiltration rate with saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) was also tested. Moreover, values of the estimated sorptivity from the Philips model were compared to estimates by selected pedotransfer functions (PTFs). The infiltration experiments used the doublering method on soils with two different land uses in the Taleghan watershed of Tehran province, Iran, from September to October, 2007. The infiltration models of Kostiakov-Lewis, Philip two-term and Horton were fitted to observed infiltration data. Some parameters of the models and the coefficient of determination goodness of fit were estimated using MATLAB software. The results showed that, based on comparing measured and model-estimated infiltration rate using root mean squared error (RMSE), Hortons model gave the best prediction of final infiltration rate in the experimental area. Laboratory measured Ks values gave significant differences and higher values than estimated final infiltration rates from the selected models. The estimated final infiltration rate was not equal to laboratory measured Ks values in the study area. Moreover, the estimated sorptivity factor by Philips model was significantly different to those estimated by selected PTFs. It is suggested that the applicability of PTFs is limited to specific, similar conditions. (Author) 37 refs.

  2. Electro-optical parameters of bond polarizability model for aluminosilicates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smirnov, Konstantin S; Bougeard, Daniel; Tandon, Poonam

    2006-04-06

    Electro-optical parameters (EOPs) of bond polarizability model (BPM) for aluminosilicate structures were derived from quantum-chemical DFT calculations of molecular models. The tensor of molecular polarizability and the derivatives of the tensor with respect to the bond length are well reproduced with the BPM, and the EOPs obtained are in a fair agreement with available experimental data. The parameters derived were found to be transferable to larger molecules. This finding suggests that the procedure used can be applied to systems with partially ionic chemical bonds. The transferability of the parameters to periodic systems was tested in molecular dynamics simulation of the polarized Raman spectra of alpha-quartz. It appeared that the molecular Si-O bond EOPs failed to reproduce the intensity of peaks in the spectra. This limitation is due to large values of the longitudinal components of the bond polarizability and its derivative found in the molecular calculations as compared to those obtained from periodic DFT calculations of crystalline silica polymorphs by Umari et al. (Phys. Rev. B 2001, 63, 094305). It is supposed that the electric field of the solid is responsible for the difference of the parameters. Nevertheless, the EOPs obtained can be used as an initial set of parameters for calculations of polarizability related characteristics of relevant systems in the framework of BPM.

  3. Estimating model parameters in nonautonomous chaotic systems using synchronization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Xiaoli; Xu, Wei; Sun, Zhongkui

    2007-01-01

    In this Letter, a technique is addressed for estimating unknown model parameters of multivariate, in particular, nonautonomous chaotic systems from time series of state variables. This technique uses an adaptive strategy for tracking unknown parameters in addition to a linear feedback coupling for synchronizing systems, and then some general conditions, by means of the periodic version of the LaSalle invariance principle for differential equations, are analytically derived to ensure precise evaluation of unknown parameters and identical synchronization between the concerned experimental system and its corresponding receiver one. Exemplifies are presented by employing a parametrically excited 4D new oscillator and an additionally excited Ueda oscillator. The results of computer simulations reveal that the technique not only can quickly track the desired parameter values but also can rapidly respond to changes in operating parameters. In addition, the technique can be favorably robust against the effect of noise when the experimental system is corrupted by bounded disturbance and the normalized absolute error of parameter estimation grows almost linearly with the cutoff value of noise strength in simulation

  4. Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, A. J.

    2004-01-01

    This report presents one of the analyses that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the details of the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and the required input parameters. The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the postclosure Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. A schematic representation of the documentation flow for the Biosphere input to TSPA is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the evolutionary relationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this report. This report, ''Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five analysis reports that develop input parameters for use in the ERMYN model. This report is the source documentation for the six biosphere parameters identified in Table 1-1. The purpose of this analysis was to develop the biosphere model parameters associated with the accumulation and depletion of radionuclides in the soil. These parameters support the calculation of radionuclide concentrations in soil from on-going irrigation or ash deposition and, as a direct consequence, radionuclide concentration in other environmental media that are affected by radionuclide concentrations in soil. The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) where the governing procedure was defined as AP-SIII.9Q, ''Scientific Analyses''. This

  5. Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A. J. Smith

    2004-09-09

    This report presents one of the analyses that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the details of the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and the required input parameters. The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the postclosure Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. A schematic representation of the documentation flow for the Biosphere input to TSPA is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the evolutionary relationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this report. This report, ''Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five analysis reports that develop input parameters for use in the ERMYN model. This report is the source documentation for the six biosphere parameters identified in Table 1-1. The purpose of this analysis was to develop the biosphere model parameters associated with the accumulation and depletion of radionuclides in the soil. These parameters support the calculation of radionuclide concentrations in soil from on-going irrigation or ash deposition and, as a direct consequence, radionuclide concentration in other environmental media that are affected by radionuclide concentrations in soil. The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) where the governing procedure

  6. Constraining statistical-model parameters using fusion and spallation reactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charity Robert J.

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The de-excitation of compound nuclei has been successfully described for several decades by means of statistical models. However, such models involve a large number of free parameters and ingredients that are often underconstrained by experimental data. We show how the degeneracy of the model ingredients can be partially lifted by studying different entrance channels for de-excitation, which populate different regions of the parameter space of the compound nucleus. Fusion reactions, in particular, play an important role in this strategy because they fix three out of four of the compound-nucleus parameters (mass, charge and total excitation energy. The present work focuses on fission and intermediate-mass-fragment emission cross sections. We prove how equivalent parameter sets for fusion-fission reactions can be resolved using another entrance channel, namely spallation reactions. Intermediate-mass-fragment emission can be constrained in a similar way. An interpretation of the best-fit IMF barriers in terms of the Wigner energies of the nascent fragments is discussed.

  7. Investigation of RADTRAN Stop Model input parameters for truck stops

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Griego, N.R.; Smith, J.D.; Neuhauser, K.S.

    1996-01-01

    RADTRAN is a computer code for estimating the risks and consequences as transport of radioactive materials (RAM). RADTRAN was developed and is maintained by Sandia National Laboratories for the US Department of Energy (DOE). For incident-free transportation, the dose to persons exposed while the shipment is stopped is frequently a major percentage of the overall dose. This dose is referred to as Stop Dose and is calculated by the Stop Model. Because stop dose is a significant portion of the overall dose associated with RAM transport, the values used as input for the Stop Model are important. Therefore, an investigation of typical values for RADTRAN Stop Parameters for truck stops was performed. The resulting data from these investigations were analyzed to provide mean values, standard deviations, and histograms. Hence, the mean values can be used when an analyst does not have a basis for selecting other input values for the Stop Model. In addition, the histograms and their characteristics can be used to guide statistical sampling techniques to measure sensitivity of the RADTRAN calculated Stop Dose to the uncertainties in the stop model input parameters. This paper discusses the details and presents the results of the investigation of stop model input parameters at truck stops

  8. Updated climatological model predictions of ionospheric and HF propagation parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reilly, M.H.; Rhoads, F.J.; Goodman, J.M.; Singh, M.

    1991-01-01

    The prediction performances of several climatological models, including the ionospheric conductivity and electron density model, RADAR C, and Ionospheric Communications Analysis and Predictions Program, are evaluated for different regions and sunspot number inputs. Particular attention is given to the near-real-time (NRT) predictions associated with single-station updates. It is shown that a dramatic improvement can be obtained by using single-station ionospheric data to update the driving parameters for an ionospheric model for NRT predictions of f(0)F2 and other ionospheric and HF circuit parameters. For middle latitudes, the improvement extends out thousands of kilometers from the update point to points of comparable corrected geomagnetic latitude. 10 refs

  9. Influential input parameters for reflood model of MARS code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oh, Deog Yeon; Bang, Young Seok [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-10-15

    Best Estimate (BE) calculation has been more broadly used in nuclear industries and regulations to reduce the significant conservatism for evaluating Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA). Reflood model has been identified as one of the problems in BE calculation. The objective of the Post BEMUSE Reflood Model Input Uncertainty Methods (PREMIUM) program of OECD/NEA is to make progress the issue of the quantification of the uncertainty of the physical models in system thermal hydraulic codes, by considering an experimental result especially for reflood. It is important to establish a methodology to identify and select the parameters influential to the response of reflood phenomena following Large Break LOCA. For this aspect, a reference calculation and sensitivity analysis to select the dominant influential parameters for FEBA experiment are performed.

  10. Four-parameter analytical local model potential for atoms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fei, Yu; Jiu-Xun, Sun; Rong-Gang, Tian; Wei, Yang

    2009-01-01

    Analytical local model potential for modeling the interaction in an atom reduces the computational effort in electronic structure calculations significantly. A new four-parameter analytical local model potential is proposed for atoms Li through Lr, and the values of four parameters are shell-independent and obtained by fitting the results of X a method. At the same time, the energy eigenvalues, the radial wave functions and the total energies of electrons are obtained by solving the radial Schrödinger equation with a new form of potential function by Numerov's numerical method. The results show that our new form of potential function is suitable for high, medium and low Z atoms. A comparison among the new potential function and other analytical potential functions shows the greater flexibility and greater accuracy of the present new potential function. (atomic and molecular physics)

  11. Application of parameters space analysis tools for empirical model validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paloma del Barrio, E. [LEPT-ENSAM UMR 8508, Talence (France); Guyon, G. [Electricite de France, Moret-sur-Loing (France)

    2004-01-01

    A new methodology for empirical model validation has been proposed in the framework of the Task 22 (Building Energy Analysis Tools) of the International Energy Agency. It involves two main steps: checking model validity and diagnosis. Both steps, as well as the underlying methods, have been presented in the first part of the paper. In this part, they are applied for testing modelling hypothesis in the framework of the thermal analysis of an actual building. Sensitivity analysis tools have been first used to identify the parts of the model that can be really tested on the available data. A preliminary diagnosis is then supplied by principal components analysis. Useful information for model behaviour improvement has been finally obtained by optimisation techniques. This example of application shows how model parameters space analysis is a powerful tool for empirical validation. In particular, diagnosis possibilities are largely increased in comparison with residuals analysis techniques. (author)

  12. Global Exponential Stability of Positive Almost Periodic Solutions for a Fishing Model with a Time-Varying Delay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with a nonautonomous fishing model with a time-varying delay. Under proper conditions, we employ a novel argument to establish a criterion on the global exponential stability of positive almost periodic solutions of the model with almost periodic coefficients and delays. Moreover, an example and its numerical simulation are given to illustrate the main results.

  13. Model parameter learning using Kullback-Leibler divergence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chungwei; Marks, Tim K.; Pajovic, Milutin; Watanabe, Shinji; Tung, Chih-kuan

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we address the following problem: For a given set of spin configurations whose probability distribution is of the Boltzmann type, how do we determine the model coupling parameters? We demonstrate that directly minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence is an efficient method. We test this method against the Ising and XY models on the one-dimensional (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) lattices, and provide two estimators to quantify the model quality. We apply this method to two types of problems. First, we apply it to the real-space renormalization group (RG). We find that the obtained RG flow is sufficiently good for determining the phase boundary (within 1% of the exact result) and the critical point, but not accurate enough for critical exponents. The proposed method provides a simple way to numerically estimate amplitudes of the interactions typically truncated in the real-space RG procedure. Second, we apply this method to the dynamical system composed of self-propelled particles, where we extract the parameter of a statistical model (a generalized XY model) from a dynamical system described by the Viscek model. We are able to obtain reasonable coupling values corresponding to different noise strengths of the Viscek model. Our method is thus able to provide quantitative analysis of dynamical systems composed of self-propelled particles.

  14. Artificial Neural Network model for the determination of GSM Rxlevel from atmospheric parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia Ofure Eichie

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Accurate received signal level (Rxlevel values are useful for mobile telecommunication network planning. Rxlevel is affected by the dynamics of the atmosphere through which it propagates. Adequate knowledge of the prevailing atmospheric conditions in an environment is essential for proper network planning. However most of the existing GSM received signal determination model are function of distance between point of signal reception and transmitting site thus necessitating the development of a model that involve the use of atmospheric parameters in the determination of received GSM signal level. In this paper, a three stage approach was used in the development of the model using some atmospheric parameters such as atmospheric temperature, relative humidity and dew point. The selected and easily measurable atmospheric parameters were used as input parameters in developing two new models for computing the Rxlevel of GSM signal using a three-step approach. Data acquisition and pre-processing serves as the first stage and formulation of ANN design and the development of parametric model for the Rxlevel using ANN synaptic weights form the second stage of the proposed approach. The third stage involves the use of ANN weight and bias values, and network architecture in the development of the model equation. In evaluating the performance of the proposed models, network parameters were varied and the results obtained using mean squared error (MSE as performance measure showed the developed model with 33 neurons in the hidden layer and tansig activation, function in both the hidden and output layers as the optimal model with least MSE value of 0.056. Thus showing that the developed model has an acceptable accuracy value as demonstrated from comparison of results with actual measured values.

  15. Biosphere modelling for a HLW repository - scenario and parameter variations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grogan, H.

    1985-03-01

    In Switzerland high-level radioactive wastes have been considered for disposal in deep-lying crystalline formations. The individual doses to man resulting from radionuclides entering the biosphere via groundwater transport are calculated. The main recipient area modelled, which constitutes the base case, is a broad gravel terrace sited along the south bank of the river Rhine. An alternative recipient region, a small valley with a well, is also modelled. A number of parameter variations are performed in order to ascertain their impact on the doses. Finally two scenario changes are modelled somewhat simplistically, these consider different prevailing climates, namely tundra and a warmer climate than present. In the base case negligibly low doses to man in the long term, resulting from the existence of a HLW repository have been calculated. Cs-135 results in the largest dose (8.4E-7 mrem/y at 6.1E+6 y) while Np-237 gives the largest dose from the actinides (3.6E-8 mrem/y). The response of the model to parameter variations cannot be easily predicted due to non-linear coupling of many of the parameters. However, the calculated doses were negligibly low in all cases as were those resulting from the two scenario variations. (author)

  16. Identification of Time Varying Civil Engineering Structures using Multivariate Recursive Time Domain Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, P.; Skjærbæk, P. S.; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

    with the smoothed quanties which have been obtained from SARCOF. The results show the usefulness of the technique for identification of a time varying civil engineering structure. It is found that all the techniques give reliable estiates of the frequencies of the two lowest modes and the first mode shape. Only...

  17. Contaminant transport in aquifers: improving the determination of model parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sabino, C.V.S.; Moreira, R.M.; Lula, Z.L.; Chausson, Y.; Magalhaes, W.F.; Vianna, M.N.

    1998-01-01

    Parameters conditioning the migration behavior of cesium and mercury are measured with their tracers 137 Cs and 203 Hg in the laboratory, using both batch and column experiments. Batch tests were used to define the sorption isotherm characteristics. Also investigated were the influences of some test parameters, in particular those due to the volume of water to mass of soil ratio (V/m). A provisional relationship between V/m and the distribution coefficient, K d , has been advanced, and a procedure to estimate K d 's valid for environmental values of the ratio V/m has been suggested. Column tests provided the parameters for a transport model. A major problem to be dealt with in such tests is the collimation of the radioactivity probe. Besides mechanically optimizing the collimator, a deconvolution procedure has been suggested and tested, with statistical criteria, to filter off both noise and spurious tracer signals. Correction procedures for the integrating effect introduced by sampling at the exit of columns have also been developed. These techniques may be helpful in increasing the accuracy required in the measurement of parameters conditioning contaminant migration in soils, thus allowing more reliable predictions based on mathematical model applications. (author)

  18. Progressive Learning of Topic Modeling Parameters: A Visual Analytics Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Assady, Mennatallah; Sevastjanova, Rita; Sperrle, Fabian; Keim, Daniel; Collins, Christopher

    2018-01-01

    Topic modeling algorithms are widely used to analyze the thematic composition of text corpora but remain difficult to interpret and adjust. Addressing these limitations, we present a modular visual analytics framework, tackling the understandability and adaptability of topic models through a user-driven reinforcement learning process which does not require a deep understanding of the underlying topic modeling algorithms. Given a document corpus, our approach initializes two algorithm configurations based on a parameter space analysis that enhances document separability. We abstract the model complexity in an interactive visual workspace for exploring the automatic matching results of two models, investigating topic summaries, analyzing parameter distributions, and reviewing documents. The main contribution of our work is an iterative decision-making technique in which users provide a document-based relevance feedback that allows the framework to converge to a user-endorsed topic distribution. We also report feedback from a two-stage study which shows that our technique results in topic model quality improvements on two independent measures.

  19. Propagation channel characterization, parameter estimation, and modeling for wireless communications

    CERN Document Server

    Yin, Xuefeng

    2016-01-01

    Thoroughly covering channel characteristics and parameters, this book provides the knowledge needed to design various wireless systems, such as cellular communication systems, RFID and ad hoc wireless communication systems. It gives a detailed introduction to aspects of channels before presenting the novel estimation and modelling techniques which can be used to achieve accurate models. To systematically guide readers through the topic, the book is organised in three distinct parts. The first part covers the fundamentals of the characterization of propagation channels, including the conventional single-input single-output (SISO) propagation channel characterization as well as its extension to multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) cases. Part two focuses on channel measurements and channel data post-processing. Wideband channel measurements are introduced, including the equipment, technology and advantages and disadvantages of different data acquisition schemes. The channel parameter estimation methods are ...

  20. Empirical flow parameters : a tool for hydraulic model validity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asquith, William H.; Burley, Thomas E.; Cleveland, Theodore G.

    2013-01-01

    The objectives of this project were (1) To determine and present from existing data in Texas, relations between observed stream flow, topographic slope, mean section velocity, and other hydraulic factors, to produce charts such as Figure 1 and to produce empirical distributions of the various flow parameters to provide a methodology to "check if model results are way off!"; (2) To produce a statistical regional tool to estimate mean velocity or other selected parameters for storm flows or other conditional discharges at ungauged locations (most bridge crossings) in Texas to provide a secondary way to compare such values to a conventional hydraulic modeling approach. (3.) To present ancillary values such as Froude number, stream power, Rosgen channel classification, sinuosity, and other selected characteristics (readily determinable from existing data) to provide additional information to engineers concerned with the hydraulic-soil-foundation component of transportation infrastructure.

  1. Parameter discovery in stochastic biological models using simulated annealing and statistical model checking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Faraz; Jha, Sumit K; Jha, Susmit; Langmead, Christopher J

    2014-01-01

    Stochastic models are increasingly used to study the behaviour of biochemical systems. While the structure of such models is often readily available from first principles, unknown quantitative features of the model are incorporated into the model as parameters. Algorithmic discovery of parameter values from experimentally observed facts remains a challenge for the computational systems biology community. We present a new parameter discovery algorithm that uses simulated annealing, sequential hypothesis testing, and statistical model checking to learn the parameters in a stochastic model. We apply our technique to a model of glucose and insulin metabolism used for in-silico validation of artificial pancreata and demonstrate its effectiveness by developing parallel CUDA-based implementation for parameter synthesis in this model.

  2. Time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions model based on dynamic correlation with an application to crude oil and stock markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, Fengbin, E-mail: fblu@amss.ac.cn [Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Qiao, Han, E-mail: qiaohan@ucas.ac.cn [School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Wang, Shouyang, E-mail: sywang@amss.ac.cn [School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Lai, Kin Keung, E-mail: mskklai@cityu.edu.hk [Department of Management Sciences, City University of Hong Kong (Hong Kong); Li, Yuze, E-mail: richardyz.li@mail.utoronto.ca [Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Toronto (Canada)

    2017-01-15

    This paper proposes a new time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions (VAR) model, in which the coefficient is a linear function of dynamic lagged correlation. The proposed model allows for flexibility in choices of dynamic correlation models (e.g. dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, Markov-switching GARCH models and multivariate stochastic volatility models), which indicates that it can describe many types of time-varying causal effects. Time-varying causal relations between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and the US Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) stock markets are examined by the proposed model. The empirical results show that their causal relations evolve with time and display complex characters. Both positive and negative causal effects of the WTI on the S&P 500 in the subperiods have been found and confirmed by the traditional VAR models. Similar results have been obtained in the causal effects of S&P 500 on WTI. In addition, the proposed model outperforms the traditional VAR model.

  3. Time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions model based on dynamic correlation with an application to crude oil and stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, Fengbin; Qiao, Han; Wang, Shouyang; Lai, Kin Keung; Li, Yuze

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a new time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions (VAR) model, in which the coefficient is a linear function of dynamic lagged correlation. The proposed model allows for flexibility in choices of dynamic correlation models (e.g. dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, Markov-switching GARCH models and multivariate stochastic volatility models), which indicates that it can describe many types of time-varying causal effects. Time-varying causal relations between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and the US Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) stock markets are examined by the proposed model. The empirical results show that their causal relations evolve with time and display complex characters. Both positive and negative causal effects of the WTI on the S&P 500 in the subperiods have been found and confirmed by the traditional VAR models. Similar results have been obtained in the causal effects of S&P 500 on WTI. In addition, the proposed model outperforms the traditional VAR model.

  4. Time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions model based on dynamic correlation with an application to crude oil and stock markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Fengbin; Qiao, Han; Wang, Shouyang; Lai, Kin Keung; Li, Yuze

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a new time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions (VAR) model, in which the coefficient is a linear function of dynamic lagged correlation. The proposed model allows for flexibility in choices of dynamic correlation models (e.g. dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, Markov-switching GARCH models and multivariate stochastic volatility models), which indicates that it can describe many types of time-varying causal effects. Time-varying causal relations between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and the US Standard and Poor's 500 (S&P 500) stock markets are examined by the proposed model. The empirical results show that their causal relations evolve with time and display complex characters. Both positive and negative causal effects of the WTI on the S&P 500 in the subperiods have been found and confirmed by the traditional VAR models. Similar results have been obtained in the causal effects of S&P 500 on WTI. In addition, the proposed model outperforms the traditional VAR model. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Seasonal variation of photosynthetic model parameters and leaf area index from global Fluxnet eddy covariance data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groenendijk, M.; Dolman, A. J.; Ammann, C.; Arneth, A.; Cescatti, A.; Dragoni, D.; Gash, J. H. C.; Gianelle, D.; Gioli, B.; Kiely, G.; Knohl, A.; Law, B. E.; Lund, M.; Marcolla, B.; van der Molen, M. K.; Montagnani, L.; Moors, E.; Richardson, A. D.; Roupsard, O.; Verbeeck, H.; Wohlfahrt, G.

    2011-12-01

    Global vegetation models require the photosynthetic parameters, maximum carboxylation capacity (Vcm), and quantum yield (α) to parameterize their plant functional types (PFTs). The purpose of this work is to determine how much the scaling of the parameters from leaf to ecosystem level through a seasonally varying leaf area index (LAI) explains the parameter variation within and between PFTs. Using Fluxnet data, we simulate a seasonally variable LAIF for a large range of sites, comparable to the LAIM derived from MODIS. There are discrepancies when LAIF reach zero levels and LAIM still provides a small positive value. We find that temperature is the most common constraint for LAIF in 55% of the simulations, while global radiation and vapor pressure deficit are the key constraints for 18% and 27% of the simulations, respectively, while large differences in this forcing still exist when looking at specific PFTs. Despite these differences, the annual photosynthesis simulations are comparable when using LAIF or LAIM (r2 = 0.89). We investigated further the seasonal variation of ecosystem-scale parameters derived with LAIF. Vcm has the largest seasonal variation. This holds for all vegetation types and climates. The parameter α is less variable. By including ecosystem-scale parameter seasonality we can explain a considerable part of the ecosystem-scale parameter variation between PFTs. The remaining unexplained leaf-scale PFT variation still needs further work, including elucidating the precise role of leaf and soil level nitrogen.

  6. Estimation of Kinetic Parameters in an Automotive SCR Catalyst Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Åberg, Andreas; Widd, Anders; Abildskov, Jens

    2016-01-01

    be used directly for accurate full-scale transient simulations. The model was validated against full-scale data with an engine following the European Transient Cycle. The validation showed that the predictive capability for nitrogen oxides (NOx) was satisfactory. After re-estimation of the adsorption...... and desorption parameters with full-scale transient data, the fit for both NOx and NH3-slip was satisfactory....

  7. Mathematical models to predict rheological parameters of lateritic hydromixtures

    OpenAIRE

    Gabriel Hernández-Ramírez; Arístides A. Legrá-Lobaina; Beatriz Ramírez-Serrano; Liudmila Pérez-García

    2017-01-01

    The present work had as objective to establish mathematical models that allow the prognosis of the rheological parameters of the lateritic pulp at concentrations of solids from 35% to 48%, temperature of the preheated hydromixture superior to 82 ° C and number of mineral between 3 and 16. Four samples of lateritic pulp were used in the study at different process locations. The results allowed defining that the plastic properties of the lateritic pulp in the conditions of this study conform to...

  8. Mathematical properties and parameter estimation for transit compartment pharmacodynamic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yates, James W T

    2008-07-03

    One feature of recent research in pharmacodynamic modelling has been the move towards more mechanistically based model structures. However, in all of these models there are common sub-systems, such as feedback loops and time-delays, whose properties and contribution to the model behaviour merit some mathematical analysis. In this paper a common pharmacodynamic model sub-structure is considered: the linear transit compartment. These models have a number of interesting properties as the length of the cascade chain is increased. In the limiting case a pure time-delay is achieved [Milsum, J.H., 1966. Biological Control Systems Analysis. McGraw-Hill Book Company, New York] and the initial behaviour becoming increasingly sensitive to parameter value perturbation. It is also shown that the modelled drug effect is attenuated, though the duration of action is longer. Through this analysis the range of behaviours that such models are capable of reproducing are characterised. The properties of these models and the experimental requirements are discussed in order to highlight how mathematical analysis prior to experimentation can enhance the utility of mathematical modelling.

  9. TRIGGERING COLLAPSE OF THE PRESOLAR DENSE CLOUD CORE AND INJECTING SHORT-LIVED RADIOISOTOPES WITH A SHOCK WAVE. II. VARIED SHOCK WAVE AND CLOUD CORE PARAMETERS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boss, Alan P.; Keiser, Sandra A., E-mail: boss@dtm.ciw.edu, E-mail: keiser@dtm.ciw.edu [Department of Terrestrial Magnetism, Carnegie Institution, 5241 Broad Branch Road, NW, Washington, DC 20015-1305 (United States)

    2013-06-10

    A variety of stellar sources have been proposed for the origin of the short-lived radioisotopes that existed at the time of the formation of the earliest solar system solids, including Type II supernovae (SNe), asymptotic giant branch (AGB) and super-AGB stars, and Wolf-Rayet star winds. Our previous adaptive mesh hydrodynamics models with the FLASH2.5 code have shown which combinations of shock wave parameters are able to simultaneously trigger the gravitational collapse of a target dense cloud core and inject significant amounts of shock wave gas and dust, showing that thin SN shocks may be uniquely suited for the task. However, recent meteoritical studies have weakened the case for a direct SN injection to the presolar cloud, motivating us to re-examine a wider range of shock wave and cloud core parameters, including rotation, in order to better estimate the injection efficiencies for a variety of stellar sources. We find that SN shocks remain as the most promising stellar source, though planetary nebulae resulting from AGB star evolution cannot be conclusively ruled out. Wolf-Rayet (WR) star winds, however, are likely to lead to cloud core shredding, rather than to collapse. Injection efficiencies can be increased when the cloud is rotating about an axis aligned with the direction of the shock wave, by as much as a factor of {approx}10. The amount of gas and dust accreted from the post-shock wind can exceed that injected from the shock wave, with implications for the isotopic abundances expected for a SN source.

  10. Control-focused, nonlinear and time-varying modelling of dielectric elastomer actuators with frequency response analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacobs, William R; Dodd, Tony J; Anderson, Sean R; Wilson, Emma D; Porrill, John; Assaf, Tareq; Rossiter, Jonathan

    2015-01-01

    Current models of dielectric elastomer actuators (DEAs) are mostly constrained to first principal descriptions that are not well suited to the application of control design due to their computational complexity. In this work we describe an integrated framework for the identification of control focused, data driven and time-varying DEA models that allow advanced analysis of nonlinear system dynamics in the frequency-domain. Experimentally generated input–output data (voltage-displacement) was used to identify control-focused, nonlinear and time-varying dynamic models of a set of film-type DEAs. The model description used was the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input structure. Frequency response analysis of the DEA dynamics was performed using generalized frequency response functions, providing insight and a comparison into the time-varying dynamics across a set of DEA actuators. The results demonstrated that models identified within the presented framework provide a compact and accurate description of the system dynamics. The frequency response analysis revealed variation in the time-varying dynamic behaviour of DEAs fabricated to the same specifications. These results suggest that the modelling and analysis framework presented here is a potentially useful tool for future work in guiding DEA actuator design and fabrication for application domains such as soft robotics. (paper)

  11. Estimation Parameters And Modelling Zero Inflated Negative Binomial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cindy Cahyaning Astuti

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Regression analysis is used to determine relationship between one or several response variable (Y with one or several predictor variables (X. Regression model between predictor variables and the Poisson distributed response variable is called Poisson Regression Model. Since, Poisson Regression requires an equality between mean and variance, it is not appropriate to apply this model on overdispersion (variance is higher than mean. Poisson regression model is commonly used to analyze the count data. On the count data type, it is often to encounteredd some observations that have zero value with large proportion of zero value on the response variable (zero Inflation. Poisson regression can be used to analyze count data but it has not been able to solve problem of excess zero value on the response variable. An alternative model which is more suitable for overdispersion data and can solve the problem of excess zero value on the response variable is Zero Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB. In this research, ZINB is applied on the case of Tetanus Neonatorum in East Java. The aim of this research is to examine the likelihood function and to form an algorithm to estimate the parameter of ZINB and also applying ZINB model in the case of Tetanus Neonatorum in East Java. Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE method is used to estimate the parameter on ZINB and the likelihood function is maximized using Expectation Maximization (EM algorithm. Test results of ZINB regression model showed that the predictor variable have a partial significant effect at negative binomial model is the percentage of pregnant women visits and the percentage of maternal health personnel assisted, while the predictor variables that have a partial significant effect at zero inflation model is the percentage of neonatus visits.

  12. COMPREHENSIVE CHECK MEASUREMENT OF KEY PARAMETERS ON MODEL BELT CONVEYOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlastimil MONI

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Complex measurements of characteristic parameters realised on a long distance model belt conveyor are described. The main objective was to complete and combine the regular measurements of electric power on drives of belt conveyors operated in Czech opencast mines with measurements of other physical quantities and to gain by this way an image of their mutual relations and relations of quantities derived from them. The paper includes a short description and results of the measurements on an experimental model conveyor with a closed material transport way.

  13. Information Theoretic Tools for Parameter Fitting in Coarse Grained Models

    KAUST Repository

    Kalligiannaki, Evangelia

    2015-01-07

    We study the application of information theoretic tools for model reduction in the case of systems driven by stochastic dynamics out of equilibrium. The model/dimension reduction is considered by proposing parametrized coarse grained dynamics and finding the optimal parameter set for which the relative entropy rate with respect to the atomistic dynamics is minimized. The minimization problem leads to a generalization of the force matching methods to non equilibrium systems. A multiplicative noise example reveals the importance of the diffusion coefficient in the optimization problem.

  14. Surrogate based approaches to parameter inference in ocean models

    KAUST Repository

    Knio, Omar

    2016-01-06

    This talk discusses the inference of physical parameters using model surrogates. Attention is focused on the use of sampling schemes to build suitable representations of the dependence of the model response on uncertain input data. Non-intrusive spectral projections and regularized regressions are used for this purpose. A Bayesian inference formalism is then applied to update the uncertain inputs based on available measurements or observations. To perform the update, we consider two alternative approaches, based on the application of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods or of adjoint-based optimization techniques. We outline the implementation of these techniques to infer dependence of wind drag, bottom drag, and internal mixing coefficients.

  15. Surrogate based approaches to parameter inference in ocean models

    KAUST Repository

    Knio, Omar

    2016-01-01

    This talk discusses the inference of physical parameters using model surrogates. Attention is focused on the use of sampling schemes to build suitable representations of the dependence of the model response on uncertain input data. Non-intrusive spectral projections and regularized regressions are used for this purpose. A Bayesian inference formalism is then applied to update the uncertain inputs based on available measurements or observations. To perform the update, we consider two alternative approaches, based on the application of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods or of adjoint-based optimization techniques. We outline the implementation of these techniques to infer dependence of wind drag, bottom drag, and internal mixing coefficients.

  16. The Impact of Three Factors on the Recovery of Item Parameters for the Three-Parameter Logistic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kyung Yong; Lee, Won-Chan

    2017-01-01

    This article provides a detailed description of three factors (specification of the ability distribution, numerical integration, and frame of reference for the item parameter estimates) that might affect the item parameter estimation of the three-parameter logistic model, and compares five item calibration methods, which are combinations of the…

  17. Ordinary Mathematical Models in Calculating the Aviation GTE Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. A. Khoreva

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the analytical review results of the ordinary mathematical models of the operating process used to study aviation GTE parameters and characteristics at all stages of its creation and operation. Considers the mathematical models of the zero and the first level, which are mostly used when solving typical problems in calculating parameters and characteristics of engines.Presents a number of practical problems arising in designing aviation GTE for various applications.The application of mathematical models of the zero-level engine can be quite appropriate when the engine is considered as a component in the aircraft system to estimate its calculated individual flight performance or when modeling the flight cycle of the aircrafts of different purpose.The paper demonstrates that introduction of correction functions into the first-level mathematical models in solving typical problems (influence of the Reynolds number, characteristics deterioration of the units during the overhaul period of engine, as well as influence of the flow inhomogeneity at the inlet because of manufacturing tolerance, etc. enables providing a sufficient engineering estimate accuracy to reflect a realistic operating process in the engine and its elements.

  18. EXTRACTION OF SPATIAL PARAMETERS FROM CLASSIFIED LIDAR DATA AND AERIAL PHOTOGRAPH FOR SOUND MODELING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Biswas

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Prediction of outdoor sound levels in 3D space is important for noise management, soundscaping etc. Sound levels at outdoor can be predicted using sound propagation models which need terrain parameters. The existing practices of incorporating terrain parameters into models are often limited due to inadequate data or inability to determine accurate sound transmission paths through a terrain. This leads to poor accuracy in modelling. LIDAR data and Aerial Photograph (or Satellite Images provide opportunity to incorporate high resolution data into sound models. To realize this, identification of building and other objects and their use for extraction of terrain parameters are fundamental. However, development of a suitable technique, to incorporate terrain parameters from classified LIDAR data and Aerial Photograph, for sound modelling is a challenge. Determination of terrain parameters along various transmission paths of sound from sound source to a receiver becomes very complex in an urban environment due to the presence of varied and complex urban features. This paper presents a technique to identify the principal paths through which sound transmits from source to receiver. Further, the identified principal paths are incorporated inside the sound model for sound prediction. Techniques based on plane cutting and line tracing are developed for determining principal paths and terrain parameters, which use various information, e.g., building corner and edges, triangulated ground, tree points and locations of source and receiver. The techniques developed are validated through a field experiment. Finally efficacy of the proposed technique is demonstrated by developing a noise map for a test site.

  19. Evaluating climate model performance with various parameter sets using observations over the recent past

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. F. Loutre

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Many sources of uncertainty limit the accuracy of climate projections. Among them, we focus here on the parameter uncertainty, i.e. the imperfect knowledge of the values of many physical parameters in a climate model. Therefore, we use LOVECLIM, a global three-dimensional Earth system model of intermediate complexity and vary several parameters within a range based on the expert judgement of model developers. Nine climatic parameter sets and three carbon cycle parameter sets are selected because they yield present-day climate simulations coherent with observations and they cover a wide range of climate responses to doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration and freshwater flux perturbation in the North Atlantic. Moreover, they also lead to a large range of atmospheric CO2 concentrations in response to prescribed emissions. Consequently, we have at our disposal 27 alternative versions of LOVECLIM (each corresponding to one parameter set that provide very different responses to some climate forcings. The 27 model versions are then used to illustrate the range of responses provided over the recent past, to compare the time evolution of climate variables over the time interval for which they are available (the last few decades up to more than one century and to identify the outliers and the "best" versions over that particular time span. For example, between 1979 and 2005, the simulated global annual mean surface temperature increase ranges from 0.24 °C to 0.64 °C, while the simulated increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration varies between 40 and 50 ppmv. Measurements over the same period indicate an increase in global annual mean surface temperature of 0.45 °C (Brohan et al., 2006 and an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration of 44 ppmv (Enting et al., 1994; GLOBALVIEW-CO2, 2006. Only a few parameter sets yield simulations that reproduce the observed key variables of the climate system over the last

  20. Applicability of genetic algorithms to parameter estimation of economic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcel Ševela

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper concentrates on capability of genetic algorithms for parameter estimation of non-linear economic models. In the paper we test the ability of genetic algorithms to estimate of parameters of demand function for durable goods and simultaneously search for parameters of genetic algorithm that lead to maximum effectiveness of the computation algorithm. The genetic algorithms connect deterministic iterative computation methods with stochastic methods. In the genteic aůgorithm approach each possible solution is represented by one individual, those life and lifes of all generations of individuals run under a few parameter of genetic algorithm. Our simulations resulted in optimal mutation rate of 15% of all bits in chromosomes, optimal elitism rate 20%. We can not set the optimal extend of generation, because it proves positive correlation with effectiveness of genetic algorithm in all range under research, but its impact is degreasing. The used genetic algorithm was sensitive to mutation rate at most, than to extend of generation. The sensitivity to elitism rate is not so strong.

  1. Parameter Sensitivity and Laboratory Benchmarking of a Biogeochemical Process Model for Enhanced Anaerobic Dechlorination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kouznetsova, I.; Gerhard, J. I.; Mao, X.; Barry, D. A.; Robinson, C.; Brovelli, A.; Harkness, M.; Fisher, A.; Mack, E. E.; Payne, J. A.; Dworatzek, S.; Roberts, J.

    2008-12-01

    A detailed model to simulate trichloroethene (TCE) dechlorination in anaerobic groundwater systems has been developed and implemented through PHAST, a robust and flexible geochemical modeling platform. The approach is comprehensive but retains flexibility such that models of varying complexity can be used to simulate TCE biodegradation in the vicinity of nonaqueous phase liquid (NAPL) source zones. The complete model considers a full suite of biological (e.g., dechlorination, fermentation, sulfate and iron reduction, electron donor competition, toxic inhibition, pH inhibition), physical (e.g., flow and mass transfer) and geochemical processes (e.g., pH modulation, gas formation, mineral interactions). Example simulations with the model demonstrated that the feedback between biological, physical, and geochemical processes is critical. Successful simulation of a thirty-two-month column experiment with site soil, complex groundwater chemistry, and exhibiting both anaerobic dechlorination and endogenous respiration, provided confidence in the modeling approach. A comprehensive suite of batch simulations was then conducted to estimate the sensitivity of predicted TCE degradation to the 36 model input parameters. A local sensitivity analysis was first employed to rank the importance of parameters, revealing that 5 parameters consistently dominated model predictions across a range of performance metrics. A global sensitivity analysis was then performed to evaluate the influence of a variety of full parameter data sets available in the literature. The modeling study was performed as part of the SABRE (Source Area BioREmediation) project, a public/private consortium whose charter is to determine if enhanced anaerobic bioremediation can result in effective and quantifiable treatment of chlorinated solvent DNAPL source areas. The modelling conducted has provided valuable insight into the complex interactions between processes in the evolving biogeochemical systems

  2. A Review of Distributed Parameter Groundwater Management Modeling Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorelick, Steven M.

    1983-04-01

    Models which solve the governing groundwater flow or solute transport equations in conjunction with optimization techniques, such as linear and quadratic programing, are powerful aquifer management tools. Groundwater management models fall in two general categories: hydraulics or policy evaluation and water allocation. Groundwater hydraulic management models enable the determination of optimal locations and pumping rates of numerous wells under a variety of restrictions placed upon local drawdown, hydraulic gradients, and water production targets. Groundwater policy evaluation and allocation models can be used to study the influence upon regional groundwater use of institutional policies such as taxes and quotas. Furthermore, fairly complex groundwater-surface water allocation problems can be handled using system decomposition and multilevel optimization. Experience from the few real world applications of groundwater optimization-management techniques is summarized. Classified separately are methods for groundwater quality management aimed at optimal waste disposal in the subsurface. This classification is composed of steady state and transient management models that determine disposal patterns in such a way that water quality is protected at supply locations. Classes of research missing from the literature are groundwater quality management models involving nonlinear constraints, models which join groundwater hydraulic and quality simulations with political-economic management considerations, and management models that include parameter uncertainty.

  3. Parameters of oscillation generation regions in open star cluster models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danilov, V. M.; Putkov, S. I.

    2017-07-01

    We determine the masses and radii of central regions of open star cluster (OCL) models with small or zero entropy production and estimate the masses of oscillation generation regions in clustermodels based on the data of the phase-space coordinates of stars. The radii of such regions are close to the core radii of the OCL models. We develop a new method for estimating the total OCL masses based on the cluster core mass, the cluster and cluster core radii, and radial distribution of stars. This method yields estimates of dynamical masses of Pleiades, Praesepe, and M67, which agree well with the estimates of the total masses of the corresponding clusters based on proper motions and spectroscopic data for cluster stars.We construct the spectra and dispersion curves of the oscillations of the field of azimuthal velocities v φ in OCL models. Weak, low-amplitude unstable oscillations of v φ develop in cluster models near the cluster core boundary, and weak damped oscillations of v φ often develop at frequencies close to the frequencies of more powerful oscillations, which may reduce the non-stationarity degree in OCL models. We determine the number and parameters of such oscillations near the cores boundaries of cluster models. Such oscillations points to the possible role that gradient instability near the core of cluster models plays in the decrease of the mass of the oscillation generation regions and production of entropy in the cores of OCL models with massive extended cores.

  4. Identifyability measures to select the parameters to be estimated in a solid-state fermentation distributed parameter model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silveira, Christian L; Mazutti, Marcio A; Salau, Nina P G

    2016-07-08

    Process modeling can lead to of advantages such as helping in process control, reducing process costs and product quality improvement. This work proposes a solid-state fermentation distributed parameter model composed by seven differential equations with seventeen parameters to represent the process. Also, parameters estimation with a parameters identifyability analysis (PIA) is performed to build an accurate model with optimum parameters. Statistical tests were made to verify the model accuracy with the estimated parameters considering different assumptions. The results have shown that the model assuming substrate inhibition better represents the process. It was also shown that eight from the seventeen original model parameters were nonidentifiable and better results were obtained with the removal of these parameters from the estimation procedure. Therefore, PIA can be useful to estimation procedure, since it may reduce the number of parameters that can be evaluated. Further, PIA improved the model results, showing to be an important procedure to be taken. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 32:905-917, 2016. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers.

  5. Habitat Modeling of Alien Plant Species at Varying Levels of Occupancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer A. Brown

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Distribution models of invasive plants are very useful tools for conservation management. There are challenges in modeling expanding populations, especially in a dynamic environment, and when data are limited. In this paper, predictive habitat models were assessed for three invasive plant species, at differing levels of occurrence, using two different habitat modeling techniques: logistic regression and maximum entropy. The influence of disturbance, spatial and temporal heterogeneity, and other landscape characteristics is assessed by creating regional level models based on occurrence records from the USDA Forest Service’s Forest Inventory and Analysis database. Logistic regression and maximum entropy models were assessed independently. Ensemble models were developed to combine the predictions of the two analysis approaches to obtain a more robust prediction estimate. All species had strong models with Area Under the receiver operator Curve (AUC of >0.75. The species with the highest occurrence, Ligustrum spp., had the greatest agreement between the models (93%. Lolium arundinaceum had the most disagreement between models at 33% and the lowest AUC values. Overall, the strength of integrative modeling in assessing and understanding habitat modeling was demonstrated.

  6. A life cycle cost economics model for automation projects with uniformly varying operating costs. [applied to Deep Space Network and Air Force Systems Command

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remer, D. S.

    1977-01-01

    The described mathematical model calculates life-cycle costs for projects with operating costs increasing or decreasing linearly with time. The cost factors involved in the life-cycle cost are considered, and the errors resulting from the assumption of constant rather than uniformly varying operating costs are examined. Parameters in the study range from 2 to 30 years, for project life; 0 to 15% per year, for interest rate; and 5 to 90% of the initial operating cost, for the operating cost gradient. A numerical example is presented.

  7. Modeling error and stability of endothelial cytoskeletal membrane parameters based on modeling transendothelial impedance as resistor and capacitor in series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodmer, James E; English, Anthony; Brady, Megan; Blackwell, Ken; Haxhinasto, Kari; Fotedar, Sunaina; Borgman, Kurt; Bai, Er-Wei; Moy, Alan B

    2005-09-01

    Transendothelial impedance across an endothelial monolayer grown on a microelectrode has previously been modeled as a repeating pattern of disks in which the electrical circuit consists of a resistor and capacitor in series. Although this numerical model breaks down barrier function into measurements of cell-cell adhesion, cell-matrix adhesion, and membrane capacitance, such solution parameters can be inaccurate without understanding model stability and error. In this study, we have evaluated modeling stability and error by using a chi(2) evaluation and Levenberg-Marquardt nonlinear least-squares (LM-NLS) method of the real and/or imaginary data in which the experimental measurement is compared with the calculated measurement derived by the model. Modeling stability and error were dependent on current frequency and the type of experimental data modeled. Solution parameters of cell-matrix adhesion were most susceptible to modeling instability. Furthermore, the LM-NLS method displayed frequency-dependent instability of the solution parameters, regardless of whether the real or imaginary data were analyzed. However, the LM-NLS method identified stable and reproducible solution parameters between all types of experimental data when a defined frequency spectrum of the entire data set was selected on the basis of a criterion of minimizing error. The frequency bandwidth that produced stable solution parameters varied greatly among different data types. Thus a numerical model based on characterizing transendothelial impedance as a resistor and capacitor in series and as a repeating pattern of disks is not sufficient to characterize the entire frequency spectrum of experimental transendothelial impedance.

  8. Tension-compression asymmetry modelling: strategies for anisotropy parameters identification.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barros Pedro

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This work presents details concerning the strategies and algorithms adopted in the fully implicit FE solver DD3IMP to model the orthotropic behavior of metallic sheets and the procedure for anisotropy parameters identification. The work is focused on the yield criterion developed by Cazacu, Plunkett and Barlat, 2006 [1], which accounts for both tension–compression asymmetry and orthotropic plastic behavior. The anisotropy parameters for a 2090-T3 aluminum alloy are identified accounting, or not, for the tension-compression asymmetry. The numerical simulation of a cup drawing is performed for this material, highlighting the importance of considering tension-compression asymmetry in the prediction of the earing profile, for materials with cubic structure, even if this phenomenon is relatively small.

  9. Parameter Estimation in Stochastic Grey-Box Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Niels Rode; Madsen, Henrik; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2004-01-01

    An efficient and flexible parameter estimation scheme for grey-box models in the sense of discretely, partially observed Ito stochastic differential equations with measurement noise is presented along with a corresponding software implementation. The estimation scheme is based on the extended...... Kalman filter and features maximum likelihood as well as maximum a posteriori estimation on multiple independent data sets, including irregularly sampled data sets and data sets with occasional outliers and missing observations. The software implementation is compared to an existing software tool...... and proves to have better performance both in terms of quality of estimates for nonlinear systems with significant diffusion and in terms of reproducibility. In particular, the new tool provides more accurate and more consistent estimates of the parameters of the diffusion term....

  10. Modelling Technical and Economic Parameters in Selection of Manufacturing Devices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naqib Daneshjo

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Sustainable science and technology development is also conditioned by continuous development of means of production which have a key role in structure of each production system. Mechanical nature of the means of production is complemented by controlling and electronic devices in context of intelligent industry. A selection of production machines for a technological process or technological project has so far been practically resolved, often only intuitively. With regard to increasing intelligence, the number of variable parameters that have to be considered when choosing a production device is also increasing. It is necessary to use computing techniques and decision making methods according to heuristic methods and more precise methodological procedures during the selection. The authors present an innovative model for optimization of technical and economic parameters in the selection of manufacturing devices for industry 4.0.

  11. Does mortality vary between Asian subgroups in New Zealand: an application of hierarchical Bayesian modelling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santosh Jatrana

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper was to see whether all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates vary between Asian ethnic subgroups, and whether overseas born Asian subgroup mortality rate ratios varied by nativity and duration of residence. We used hierarchical Bayesian methods to allow for sparse data in the analysis of linked census-mortality data for 25-75 year old New Zealanders. We found directly standardised posterior all-cause and cardiovascular mortality rates were highest for the Indian ethnic group, significantly so when compared with those of Chinese ethnicity. In contrast, cancer mortality rates were lowest for ethnic Indians. Asian overseas born subgroups have about 70% of the mortality rate of their New Zealand born Asian counterparts, a result that showed little variation by Asian subgroup or cause of death. Within the overseas born population, all-cause mortality rates for migrants living 0-9 years in New Zealand were about 60% of the mortality rate of those living more than 25 years in New Zealand regardless of ethnicity. The corresponding figure for cardiovascular mortality rates was 50%. However, while Chinese cancer mortality rates increased with duration of residence, Indian and Other Asian cancer mortality rates did not. Future research on the mechanisms of worsening of health with increased time spent in the host country is required to improve the understanding of the process, and would assist the policy-makers and health planners.

  12. Automated parameter estimation for biological models using Bayesian statistical model checking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Faraz; Langmead, Christopher J; Mi, Qi; Dutta-Moscato, Joyeeta; Vodovotz, Yoram; Jha, Sumit K

    2015-01-01

    Probabilistic models have gained widespread acceptance in the systems biology community as a useful way to represent complex biological systems. Such models are developed using existing knowledge of the structure and dynamics of the system, experimental observations, and inferences drawn from statistical analysis of empirical data. A key bottleneck in building such models is that some system variables cannot be measured experimentally. These variables are incorporated into the model as numerical parameters. Determining values of these parameters that justify existing experiments and provide reliable predictions when model simulations are performed is a key research problem. Using an agent-based model of the dynamics of acute inflammation, we demonstrate a novel parameter estimation algorithm by discovering the amount and schedule of doses of bacterial lipopolysaccharide that guarantee a set of observed clinical outcomes with high probability. We synthesized values of twenty-eight unknown parameters such that the parameterized model instantiated with these parameter values satisfies four specifications describing the dynamic behavior of the model. We have developed a new algorithmic technique for discovering parameters in complex stochastic models of biological systems given behavioral specifications written in a formal mathematical logic. Our algorithm uses Bayesian model checking, sequential hypothesis testing, and stochastic optimization to automatically synthesize parameters of probabilistic biological models.

  13. Influence of Joint Angle on EMG-Torque Model During Constant-Posture, Torque-Varying Contractions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Pu; Liu, Lukai; Clancy, Edward A

    2015-11-01

    Relating the electromyogram (EMG) to joint torque is useful in various application areas, including prosthesis control, ergonomics and clinical biomechanics. Limited study has related EMG to torque across varied joint angles, particularly when subjects performed force-varying contractions or when optimized modeling methods were utilized. We related the biceps-triceps surface EMG of 22 subjects to elbow torque at six joint angles (spanning 60° to 135°) during constant-posture, torque-varying contractions. Three nonlinear EMG σ -torque models, advanced EMG amplitude (EMG σ ) estimation processors (i.e., whitened, multiple-channel) and the duration of data used to train models were investigated. When EMG-torque models were formed separately for each of the six distinct joint angles, a minimum "gold standard" error of 4.01±1.2% MVC(F90) resulted (i.e., error relative to maximum voluntary contraction at 90° flexion). This model structure, however, did not directly facilitate interpolation across angles. The best model which did so achieved a statistically equivalent error of 4.06±1.2% MVC(F90). Results demonstrated that advanced EMG σ processors lead to improved joint torque estimation as do longer model training durations.

  14. How Do Various Maize Crop Models Vary in Their Responses to Climate Change Factors?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassu, Simona; Brisson, Nadine; Grassini, Patricio; Durand, Jean-Louis; Boote, Kenneth; Lizaso, Jon; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C.; Adam, Myriam; hide

    2014-01-01

    Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly -0.5 Mg ha(sup 1) per degC. Doubling [CO2] from 360 to 720 lmol mol 1 increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information.

  15. Modelling the Earth's static and time-varying gravity field using a combination of GRACE and GOCE data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Farahani, H.H.

    2013-01-01

    The main focus of the thesis is modelling the static and time-varying parts of the Earth's gravity field at the global scale based on data acquired by the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE). In addition, a new

  16. Bivariate functional data clustering: grouping streams based on a varying coefficient model of the stream water and air temperature relationship

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. Li; X. Deng; Andy Dolloff; E. P. Smith

    2015-01-01

    A novel clustering method for bivariate functional data is proposed to group streams based on their water–air temperature relationship. A distance measure is developed for bivariate curves by using a time-varying coefficient model and a weighting scheme. This distance is also adjusted by spatial correlation of streams via the variogram. Therefore, the proposed...

  17. Identification of grid model parameters using synchrophasor measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boicea, Valentin; Albu, Mihaela [Politehnica University of Bucharest (Romania)

    2012-07-01

    Presently a critical element of the energy networks is represented by the active distribution grids, where generation intermittency and controllable loads contribute to a stochastic varability of the quantities characterizing the grid operation. The capability of controlling the electrical energy transfer is also limited by the incomplete knowledge of the detailed electrical model of each of the grid components. Asset management in distribution grids has to consider dynamic loads, while high loading of network sections might already have degraded some of the assets. Moreover, in case of functional microgrids, all elements need to be modelled accurately and an appropriate measurement layer enabling online control needs to be deployed. In this paper a method for online identification of the actual parameter values in grid electrical models is proposed. Laboratory results validating the proposed method are presented. (orig.)

  18. Dynamic systems models new methods of parameter and state estimation

    CERN Document Server

    2016-01-01

    This monograph is an exposition of a novel method for solving inverse problems, a method of parameter estimation for time series data collected from simulations of real experiments. These time series might be generated by measuring the dynamics of aircraft in flight, by the function of a hidden Markov model used in bioinformatics or speech recognition or when analyzing the dynamics of asset pricing provided by the nonlinear models of financial mathematics. Dynamic Systems Models demonstrates the use of algorithms based on polynomial approximation which have weaker requirements than already-popular iterative methods. Specifically, they do not require a first approximation of a root vector and they allow non-differentiable elements in the vector functions being approximated. The text covers all the points necessary for the understanding and use of polynomial approximation from the mathematical fundamentals, through algorithm development to the application of the method in, for instance, aeroplane flight dynamic...

  19. Luminescence model with quantum impact parameter for low energies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cruz G, H.S.; Michaelian, K.; Galindo U, S.; Martinez D, A.; Belmont M, E.

    2000-01-01

    The analytical model of induced light production in scintillator materials by energetic ions proposed by Michaelian and Menchaca (M-M) adjusts very well the luminescence substance data in a wide energy interval of the incident ions (10-100 MeV). However at low energies, that is, under to 10 MeV, the experimental deviations of the predictions of M-M model, show that the causes may be certain physical effects, all they important at low energies, which were not considered. We have modified lightly the M-M model using the basic fact that the Quantum mechanics gives to a different limit for the quantum impact parameter instead of the classic approximation. (Author)

  20. A Solution to Modeling Multilevel Confirmatory Factor Analysis with Data Obtained from Complex Survey Sampling to Avoid Conflated Parameter Estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiun-Yu Wu

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The issue of equality in the between-and within-level structures in Multilevel Confirmatory Factor Analysis (MCFA models has been influential for obtaining unbiased parameter estimates and statistical inferences. A commonly seen condition is the inequality of factor loadings under equal level-varying structures. With mathematical investigation and Monte Carlo simulation, this study compared the robustness of five statistical models including two model-based (a true and a mis-specified models, one design-based, and two maximum models (two models where the full rank of variance-covariance matrix is estimated in between level and within level, respectively in analyzing complex survey measurement data with level-varying factor loadings. The empirical data of 120 3rd graders' (from 40 classrooms perceived Harter competence scale were modeled using MCFA and the parameter estimates were used as true parameters to perform the Monte Carlo simulation study. Results showed maximum models was robust to unequal factor loadings while the design-based and the miss-specified model-based approaches produced conflated results and spurious statistical inferences. We recommend the use of maximum models if researchers have limited information about the pattern of factor loadings and measurement structures. Measurement models are key components of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM; therefore, the findings can be generalized to multilevel SEM and CFA models. Mplus codes are provided for maximum models and other analytical models.

  1. Consumer acceptance of model soup system with varying levels of herbs and salt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chao; Lee, Youngsoo; Lee, Soo-Yeun

    2014-10-01

    Although herbs have been reported as one of the most common saltiness enhancers, few studies have focused on the effect of herbs on reducing added sodium as well as the impact of herbs on consumers' overall liking of foods. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to determine the effect of varying levels of herbs on reducing added sodium and consumers' overall liking of soups and identify the impact of salt levels on consumers' overall liking of soups. Overall liking of freshly prepared and retorted canned soups with varying levels of herbs was evaluated before and after adding salt by consumers ad libitum until the saltiness of the soup was just about right for them. The results of the study demonstrated that when the perceived herb flavor increased, the amount of salt consumers added to fresh soups decreased (P ≤ 0.006); however, consumers' overall liking decreased (P ≤ 0.013) as well for the highest level of herb tested in the study. Although overall liking of all canned soups was not significantly decreased by herbs, the amount of salt consumers added was also not significantly decreased when herbs were used. Overall liking of all soups significantly increased after more salt was added (P ≤ 0.001), which indicates that salt level was a dominant factor in affecting consumers' overall liking of soups with varying levels of herbs. These findings imply the role of herbs in decreasing salt intake, and the adequate amount of herbs to be added in soup systems. It is challenging for the food industry to reduce sodium in foods without fully understanding the impact of sodium reduction on sensory properties of foods. Herbs are recommended to use in reducing sodium; however, little has been reported regarding the effect of herbs on sodium reduction and how herbs influence consumers’ acceptance of foods. This study provides findings that herbs may aid in decreasing the amount of salt consumers need to add for freshly prepared soups. It was also found that high

  2. Significance of settling model structures and parameter subsets in modelling WWTPs under wet-weather flow and filamentous bulking conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramin, Elham; Sin, Gürkan; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Plósz, Benedek Gy

    2014-10-15

    Current research focuses on predicting and mitigating the impacts of high hydraulic loadings on centralized wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) under wet-weather conditions. The maximum permissible inflow to WWTPs depends not only on the settleability of activated sludge in secondary settling tanks (SSTs) but also on the hydraulic behaviour of SSTs. The present study investigates the impacts of ideal and non-ideal flow (dry and wet weather) and settling (good settling and bulking) boundary conditions on the sensitivity of WWTP model outputs to uncertainties intrinsic to the one-dimensional (1-D) SST model structures and parameters. We identify the critical sources of uncertainty in WWTP models through global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using the Benchmark simulation model No. 1 in combination with first- and second-order 1-D SST models. The results obtained illustrate that the contribution of settling parameters to the total variance of the key WWTP process outputs significantly depends on the influent flow and settling conditions. The magnitude of the impact is found to vary, depending on which type of 1-D SST model is used. Therefore, we identify and recommend potential parameter subsets for WWTP model calibration, and propose optimal choice of 1-D SST models under different flow and settling boundary conditions. Additionally, the hydraulic parameters in the second-order SST model are found significant under dynamic wet-weather flow conditions. These results highlight the importance of developing a more mechanistic based flow-dependent hydraulic sub-model in second-order 1-D SST models in the future. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Response to ``Comment on `Adaptive Q-S (lag, anticipated, and complete) time-varying synchronization and parameters identification of uncertain delayed neural networks''' [Chaos 17, 038101 (2007)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Wenwu; Cao, Jinde

    2007-09-01

    Parameter identification of dynamical systems from time series has received increasing interest due to its wide applications in secure communication, pattern recognition, neural networks, and so on. Given the driving system, parameters can be estimated from the time series by using an adaptive control algorithm. Recently, it has been reported that for some stable systems, in which parameters are difficult to be identified [Li et al., Phys Lett. A 333, 269-270 (2004); Remark 5 in Yu and Cao, Physica A 375, 467-482 (2007); and Li et al., Chaos 17, 038101 (2007)], and in this paper, a brief discussion about whether parameters can be identified from time series is investigated. From some detailed analyses, the problem of why parameters of stable systems can be hardly estimated is discussed. Some interesting examples are drawn to verify the proposed analysis.

  4. Integrating retention soil filters into urban hydrologic models - Relevant processes and important parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachmann-Machnik, Anna; Meyer, Daniel; Waldhoff, Axel; Fuchs, Stephan; Dittmer, Ulrich

    2018-04-01

    Retention Soil Filters (RSFs), a form of vertical flow constructed wetlands specifically designed for combined sewer overflow (CSO) treatment, have proven to be an effective tool to mitigate negative impacts of CSOs on receiving water bodies. Long-term hydrologic simulations are used to predict the emissions from urban drainage systems during planning of stormwater management measures. So far no universally accepted model for RSF simulation exists. When simulating hydraulics and water quality in RSFs, an appropriate level of detail must be chosen for reasonable balancing between model complexity and model handling, considering the model input's level of uncertainty. The most crucial parameters determining the resultant uncertainties of the integrated sewer system and filter bed model were identified by evaluating a virtual drainage system with a Retention Soil Filter for CSO treatment. To determine reasonable parameter ranges for RSF simulations, data of 207 events from six full-scale RSF plants in Germany were analyzed. Data evaluation shows that even though different plants with varying loading and operation modes were examined, a simple model is sufficient to assess relevant suspended solids (SS), chemical oxygen demand (COD) and NH4 emissions from RSFs. Two conceptual RSF models with different degrees of complexity were assessed. These models were developed based on evaluation of data from full scale RSF plants and column experiments. Incorporated model processes are ammonium adsorption in the filter layer and degradation during subsequent dry weather period, filtration of SS and particulate COD (XCOD) to a constant background concentration and removal of solute COD (SCOD) by a constant removal rate during filter passage as well as sedimentation of SS and XCOD in the filter overflow. XCOD, SS and ammonium loads as well as ammonium concentration peaks are discharged primarily via RSF overflow not passing through the filter bed. Uncertainties of the integrated

  5. Optimization of Experimental Model Parameter Identification for Energy Storage Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosario Morello

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The smart grid approach is envisioned to take advantage of all available modern technologies in transforming the current power system to provide benefits to all stakeholders in the fields of efficient energy utilisation and of wide integration of renewable sources. Energy storage systems could help to solve some issues that stem from renewable energy usage in terms of stabilizing the intermittent energy production, power quality and power peak mitigation. With the integration of energy storage systems into the smart grids, their accurate modeling becomes a necessity, in order to gain robust real-time control on the network, in terms of stability and energy supply forecasting. In this framework, this paper proposes a procedure to identify the values of the battery model parameters in order to best fit experimental data and integrate it, along with models of energy sources and electrical loads, in a complete framework which represents a real time smart grid management system. The proposed method is based on a hybrid optimisation technique, which makes combined use of a stochastic and a deterministic algorithm, with low computational burden and can therefore be repeated over time in order to account for parameter variations due to the battery’s age and usage.

  6. Bayesian parameter estimation for stochastic models of biological cell migration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieterich, Peter; Preuss, Roland

    2013-08-01

    Cell migration plays an essential role under many physiological and patho-physiological conditions. It is of major importance during embryonic development and wound healing. In contrast, it also generates negative effects during inflammation processes, the transmigration of tumors or the formation of metastases. Thus, a reliable quantification and characterization of cell paths could give insight into the dynamics of these processes. Typically stochastic models are applied where parameters are extracted by fitting models to the so-called mean square displacement of the observed cell group. We show that this approach has several disadvantages and problems. Therefore, we propose a simple procedure directly relying on the positions of the cell's trajectory and the covariance matrix of the positions. It is shown that the covariance is identical with the spatial aging correlation function for the supposed linear Gaussian models of Brownian motion with drift and fractional Brownian motion. The technique is applied and illustrated with simulated data showing a reliable parameter estimation from single cell paths.

  7. Model parameters for representative wetland plant functional groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Amber S.; Kiniry, James R.; Mushet, David M.; Smith, Loren M.; McMurry, Scott T.; Attebury, Kelly; Lang, Megan; McCarty, Gregory W.; Shaffer, Jill A.; Effland, William R.; Johnson, Mari-Vaughn V.

    2017-01-01

    Wetlands provide a wide variety of ecosystem services including water quality remediation, biodiversity refugia, groundwater recharge, and floodwater storage. Realistic estimation of ecosystem service benefits associated with wetlands requires reasonable simulation of the hydrology of each site and realistic simulation of the upland and wetland plant growth cycles. Objectives of this study were to quantify leaf area index (LAI), light extinction coefficient (k), and plant nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K) concentrations in natural stands of representative plant species for some major plant functional groups in the United States. Functional groups in this study were based on these parameters and plant growth types to enable process-based modeling. We collected data at four locations representing some of the main wetland regions of the United States. At each site, we collected on-the-ground measurements of fraction of light intercepted, LAI, and dry matter within the 2013–2015 growing seasons. Maximum LAI and k variables showed noticeable variations among sites and years, while overall averages and functional group averages give useful estimates for multisite simulation modeling. Variation within each species gives an indication of what can be expected in such natural ecosystems. For P and K, the concentrations from highest to lowest were spikerush (Eleocharis macrostachya), reed canary grass (Phalaris arundinacea), smartweed (Polygonum spp.), cattail (Typha spp.), and hardstem bulrush (Schoenoplectus acutus). Spikerush had the highest N concentration, followed by smartweed, bulrush, reed canary grass, and then cattail. These parameters will be useful for the actual wetland species measured and for the wetland plant functional groups they represent. These parameters and the associated process-based models offer promise as valuable tools for evaluating environmental benefits of wetlands and for evaluating impacts of various agronomic practices in

  8. Application of a free parameter model to plastic scintillation samples

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tarancon Sanz, Alex, E-mail: alex.tarancon@ub.edu [Departament de Quimica Analitica, Universitat de Barcelona, Diagonal 647, E-08028 Barcelona (Spain); Kossert, Karsten, E-mail: Karsten.Kossert@ptb.de [Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt (PTB), Bundesallee 100, 38116 Braunschweig (Germany)

    2011-08-21

    In liquid scintillation (LS) counting, the CIEMAT/NIST efficiency tracing method and the triple-to-double coincidence ratio (TDCR) method have proved their worth for reliable activity measurements of a number of radionuclides. In this paper, an extended approach to apply a free-parameter model to samples containing a mixture of solid plastic scintillation microspheres and radioactive aqueous solutions is presented. Several beta-emitting radionuclides were measured in a TDCR system at PTB. For the application of the free parameter model, the energy loss in the aqueous phase must be taken into account, since this portion of the particle energy does not contribute to the creation of scintillation light. The energy deposit in the aqueous phase is determined by means of Monte Carlo calculations applying the PENELOPE software package. To this end, great efforts were made to model the geometry of the samples. Finally, a new geometry parameter was defined, which was determined by means of a tracer radionuclide with known activity. This makes the analysis of experimental TDCR data of other radionuclides possible. The deviations between the determined activity concentrations and reference values were found to be lower than 3%. The outcome of this research work is also important for a better understanding of liquid scintillation counting. In particular the influence of (inverse) micelles, i.e. the aqueous spaces embedded in the organic scintillation cocktail, can be investigated. The new approach makes clear that it is important to take the energy loss in the aqueous phase into account. In particular for radionuclides emitting low-energy electrons (e.g. M-Auger electrons from {sup 125}I), this effect can be very important.

  9. Microbial Communities Model Parameter Calculation for TSPA/SR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D. Jolley

    2001-01-01

    This calculation has several purposes. First the calculation reduces the information contained in ''Committed Materials in Repository Drifts'' (BSC 2001a) to useable parameters required as input to MING V1.O (CRWMS M and O 1998, CSCI 30018 V1.O) for calculation of the effects of potential in-drift microbial communities as part of the microbial communities model. The calculation is intended to replace the parameters found in Attachment II of the current In-Drift Microbial Communities Model revision (CRWMS M and O 2000c) with the exception of Section 11-5.3. Second, this calculation provides the information necessary to supercede the following DTN: M09909SPAMING1.003 and replace it with a new qualified dataset (see Table 6.2-1). The purpose of this calculation is to create the revised qualified parameter input for MING that will allow ΔG (Gibbs Free Energy) to be corrected for long-term changes to the temperature of the near-field environment. Calculated herein are the quadratic or second order regression relationships that are used in the energy limiting calculations to potential growth of microbial communities in the in-drift geochemical environment. Third, the calculation performs an impact review of a new DTN: M00012MAJIONIS.000 that is intended to replace the currently cited DTN: GS9809083 12322.008 for water chemistry data used in the current ''In-Drift Microbial Communities Model'' revision (CRWMS M and O 2000c). Finally, the calculation updates the material lifetimes reported on Table 32 in section 6.5.2.3 of the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' AMR (CRWMS M and O 2000c) based on the inputs reported in BSC (2001a). Changes include adding new specified materials and updating old materials information that has changed

  10. New Ghost-node method for linking different models with varied grid refinement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mehl, Steffen W.; Hill, Mary Catherine; James, Scott Carlton; Leake, Stanley A.; Zyvoloski, George A.; Dickinson, Jesse E.; Eddebbarh, Al A.

    2006-01-01

    A flexible, robust method for linking grids of locally refined models constructed with different numerical methods is needed to address a variety of hydrologic problems. This work outlines and tests a new ghost-node model-linking method for a refined 'child' model that is contained within a larger and coarser 'parent' model that is based on the iterative method of Mehl and Hill (2002, 2004). The method is applicable to steady-state solutions for ground-water flow. Tests are presented for a homogeneous two-dimensional system that has either matching grids (parent cells border an integer number of child cells; Figure 2a) or non-matching grids (parent cells border a non-integer number of child cells; Figure 2b). The coupled grids are simulated using the finite-difference and finite-element models MODFLOW and FEHM, respectively. The simulations require no alteration of the MODFLOW or FEHM models and are executed using a batch file on Windows operating systems. Results indicate that when the grids are matched spatially so that nodes and child cell boundaries are aligned, the new coupling technique has error nearly equal to that when coupling two MODFLOW models (Mehl and Hill, 2002). When the grids are non-matching, model accuracy is slightly increased over matching-grid cases. Overall, results indicate that the ghost-node technique is a viable means to accurately couple distinct models because the overall error is less than if only the regional model was used to simulate flow in the child model's domain

  11. New ghost-node method for linking different models with varied grid refinement

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, S.C.; Dickinson, J.E.; Mehl, S.W.; Hill, M.C.; Leake, S.A.; Zyvoloski, G.A.; Eddebbarh, A.-A.

    2006-01-01

    A flexible, robust method for linking grids of locally refined ground-water flow models constructed with different numerical methods is needed to address a variety of hydrologic problems. This work outlines and tests a new ghost-node model-linking method for a refined "child" model that is contained within a larger and coarser "parent" model that is based on the iterative method of Steffen W. Mehl and Mary C. Hill (2002, Advances in Water Res., 25, p. 497-511; 2004, Advances in Water Res., 27, p. 899-912). The method is applicable to steady-state solutions for ground-water flow. Tests are presented for a homogeneous two-dimensional system that has matching grids (parent cells border an integer number of child cells) or nonmatching grids. The coupled grids are simulated by using the finite-difference and finite-element models MODFLOW and FEHM, respectively. The simulations require no alteration of the MODFLOW or FEHM models and are executed using a batch file on Windows operating systems. Results indicate that when the grids are matched spatially so that nodes and child-cell boundaries are aligned, the new coupling technique has error nearly equal to that when coupling two MODFLOW models. When the grids are nonmatching, model accuracy is slightly increased compared to that for matching-grid cases. Overall, results indicate that the ghost-node technique is a viable means to couple distinct models because the overall head and flow errors relative to the analytical solution are less than if only the regional coarse-grid model was used to simulate flow in the child model's domain.

  12. A New Extension of the Binomial Error Model for Responses to Items of Varying Difficulty in Educational Testing and Attitude Surveys.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James A Wiley

    Full Text Available We put forward a new item response model which is an extension of the binomial error model first introduced by Keats and Lord. Like the binomial error model, the basic latent variable can be interpreted as a probability of responding in a certain way to an arbitrarily specified item. For a set of dichotomous items, this model gives predictions that are similar to other single parameter IRT models (such as the Rasch model but has certain advantages in more complex cases. The first is that in specifying a flexible two-parameter Beta distribution for the latent variable, it is easy to formulate models for randomized experiments in which there is no reason to believe that either the latent variable or its distribution vary over randomly composed experimental groups. Second, the elementary response function is such that extensions to more complex cases (e.g., polychotomous responses, unfolding scales are straightforward. Third, the probability metric of the latent trait allows tractable extensions to cover a wide variety of stochastic response processes.

  13. LiDAR based prediction of forest biomass using hierarchical models with spatially varying coefficients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chad Babcock; Andrew O. Finley; John B. Bradford; Randy Kolka; Richard Birdsey; Michael G. Ryan

    2015-01-01

    Many studies and production inventory systems have shown the utility of coupling covariates derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data with forest variables measured on georeferenced inventory plots through regression models. The objective of this study was to propose and assess the use of a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework that accommodates both...

  14. Matrix Population Model for Estimating Effects from Time-Varying Aquatic Exposures: Technical Documentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Office of Pesticide Programs models daily aquatic pesticide exposure values for 30 years in its risk assessments. However, only a fraction of that information is typically used in these assessments. The population model employed herein is a deterministic, density-dependent pe...

  15. Using Video Modeling with Substitutable Loops to Teach Varied Play to Children with Autism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dupere, Sally; MacDonald, Rebecca P. F.; Ahearn, William H.

    2013-01-01

    Children with autism often engage in repetitive play with little variation in the actions performed or items used. This study examined the use of video modeling with scripted substitutable loops on children's pretend play with trained and untrained characters. Three young children with autism were shown a video model of scripted toy play that…

  16. Time-Varying Combinations of Bayesian Dynamic Models and Equity Momentum Strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    N. Basturk (Nalan); S. Grassi (Stefano); L.F. Hoogerheide (Lennart); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    2016-01-01

    markdownabstractA novel dynamic asset-allocation approach is proposed where portfolios as well as portfolio strategies are updated at every decision period based on their past performance. For modeling, a general class of models is specified that combines a dynamic factor and a vector autoregressive

  17. Lumped-parameter fuel rod model for rapid thermal transients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perkins, K.R.; Ramshaw, J.D.

    1975-07-01

    The thermal behavior of fuel rods during simulated accident conditions is extremely sensitive to the heat transfer coefficient which is, in turn, very sensitive to the cladding surface temperature and the fluid conditions. The development of a semianalytical, lumped-parameter fuel rod model which is intended to provide accurate calculations, in a minimum amount of computer time, of the thermal response of fuel rods during a simulated loss-of-coolant accident is described. The results show good agreement with calculations from a comprehensive fuel-rod code (FRAP-T) currently in use at Aerojet Nuclear Company

  18. Model atmospheres and parameters of central stars of planetary nebulae

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patriarchi, P.; Cerruti-sola, M.; Perinotto, M.

    1989-01-01

    Non-LTE hydrogen and helium model atmospheres have been obtained for temperatures and gravities relevant to the central stars of planetary nebulae. Low-resolution and high-resolution observations obtained by the IUE satellite have been used along with optical data to determine Zanstra temperatures of the central stars of NGC 1535, NGC 6210, NGC 7009, IC 418, and IC 4593. Comparison of the observed stellar continuum of these stars with theoretical results allowed further information on the stellar temperature to be derived. The final temperatures are used to calculate accurate stellar parameters. 62 refs

  19. Modelled basic parameters for semi-industrial irradiation plant design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mangussi, J.

    2009-01-01

    The basic parameters of an irradiation plant design are the total activity, the product uniformity ratio and the efficiency process. The target density, the minimum dose required and the throughput depends on the use to which the irradiator will be put at. In this work, a model for calculating the specific dose rate at several depths in an infinite homogeneous medium produced by a slab source irradiator is presented. The product minimum dose rate for a set of target thickness is obtained. The design method steps are detailed and an illustrative example is presented. (author)

  20. Parameter Identification for Nonlinear Circuit Models of Power BAW Resonator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CONSTANTINESCU, F.

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The large signal operation of the bulk acoustic wave (BAW resonators is characterized by the amplitude-frequency effect and the intermodulation effect. The measurement of these effects, together with that of the small signal frequency characteristic, are used in this paper for the parameter identification of the nonlinear circuit models developed previously by authors. As the resonator has been connected to the measurement bench by wire bonding, the parasitic elements of this connection have been taken into account, being estimated solving some electrical and magnetic field problems.