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Sample records for model parameters related

  1. Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A. J. Smith

    2004-09-09

    This report presents one of the analyses that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the details of the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and the required input parameters. The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the postclosure Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. A schematic representation of the documentation flow for the Biosphere input to TSPA is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the evolutionary relationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this report. This report, ''Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five analysis reports that develop input parameters for use in the ERMYN model. This report is the source documentation for the six biosphere parameters identified in Table 1-1. The purpose of this analysis was to develop the biosphere model parameters associated with the accumulation and depletion of radionuclides in the soil. These parameters support the calculation of radionuclide concentrations in soil from on-going irrigation or ash deposition and, as a direct consequence, radionuclide concentration in other environmental media that are affected by radionuclide concentrations in soil. The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) where the governing procedure

  2. Parameters-related uncertainty in modeling sugar cane yield with an agro-Land Surface Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valade, A.; Ciais, P.; Vuichard, N.; Viovy, N.; Ruget, F.; Gabrielle, B.

    2012-12-01

    Agro-Land Surface Models (agro-LSM) have been developed from the coupling of specific crop models and large-scale generic vegetation models. They aim at accounting for the spatial distribution and variability of energy, water and carbon fluxes within soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum with a particular emphasis on how crop phenology and agricultural management practice influence the turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere, and the underlying water and carbon pools. A part of the uncertainty in these models is related to the many parameters included in the models' equations. In this study, we quantify the parameter-based uncertainty in the simulation of sugar cane biomass production with the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS on a multi-regional approach with data from sites in Australia, La Reunion and Brazil. First, the main source of uncertainty for the output variables NPP, GPP, and sensible heat flux (SH) is determined through a screening of the main parameters of the model on a multi-site basis leading to the selection of a subset of most sensitive parameters causing most of the uncertainty. In a second step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out on the parameters selected from the screening analysis at a regional scale. For this, a Monte-Carlo sampling method associated with the calculation of Partial Ranked Correlation Coefficients is used. First, we quantify the sensitivity of the output variables to individual input parameters on a regional scale for two regions of intensive sugar cane cultivation in Australia and Brazil. Then, we quantify the overall uncertainty in the simulation's outputs propagated from the uncertainty in the input parameters. Seven parameters are identified by the screening procedure as driving most of the uncertainty in the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS model output at all sites. These parameters control photosynthesis (optimal temperature of photosynthesis, optimal carboxylation rate), radiation interception (extinction coefficient), root

  3. THE RELATIONS BETWEEN MODEL PARAMETERS AND CERTAIN PHENOMENA IN TRAFFIC FLOW

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    OU Zhong-hui; TAO Ming-de; WU Zheng

    2004-01-01

    Based on the dimensionless dynamic model of traffic flow, the model parameters were compared with numerically simulating solutions, and the effects of the former on the latter was investigated. Some relations between the parameters were obtained. Investigation several idealized results from dimensionless dynamic model of traffic flow were concluded.

  4. RELATIONS BETWEEN PARAMETERS IN THE LINEAR RESERVOIR AND KINEMATIC WAVE MODELS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    The objective of this study is to explore the relation between the sets of parameters involved in the kinematic wave model and the linear reservoir model in runoff analyses. In the study, an approximate function of recession curves, obtained from the results of indoor rainfall-runoff experiments, is used to characterize the parameters involved in the two models and to explore the relations between the corresponding sets of parameters. Additionally, the observed hydrographs resulting from different rainfall durations and intensities on both bare and weed hillsides obtained from the rainfall experiments are simulated applying the two models. The simulation results indicate the applicability of the conversion relation between the two sets of parameters, which were determined based on the recession constants. This provides a better understanding of the link between the two models.

  5. Surrogate models of precessing numerical relativity gravitational waveforms for use in parameter estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackman, Jonathan; Field, Scott; Galley, Chad; Hemberger, Daniel; Scheel, Mark; Schmidt, Patricia; Smith, Rory; SXS Collaboration Collaboration

    2016-03-01

    We are now in the advanced detector era of gravitational wave astronomy, and the merger of two black holes (BHs) is one of the most promising sources of gravitational waves that could be detected on earth. To infer the BH masses and spins, the observed signal must be compared to waveforms predicted by general relativity for millions of binary configurations. Numerical relativity (NR) simulations can produce accurate waveforms, but are prohibitively expensive to use for parameter estimation. Other waveform models are fast enough but may lack accuracy in portions of the parameter space. Numerical relativity surrogate models attempt to rapidly predict the results of a NR code with a small or negligible modeling error, after being trained on a set of input waveforms. Such surrogate models are ideal for parameter estimation, as they are both fast and accurate, and have already been built for the case of non-spinning BHs. Using 250 input waveforms, we build a surrogate model for waveforms from the Spectral Einstein Code (SpEC) for a subspace of precessing systems.

  6. Cardiovascular disease-related parameters and oxidative stress in SHROB rats, a model for metabolic syndrome.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eunice Molinar-Toribio

    Full Text Available SHROB rats have been suggested as a model for metabolic syndrome (MetS as a situation prior to the onset of CVD or type-2 diabetes, but information on descriptive biochemical parameters for this model is limited. Here, we extensively evaluate parameters related to CVD and oxidative stress (OS in SHROB rats. SHROB rats were monitored for 15 weeks and compared to a control group of Wistar rats. Body weight was recorded weekly. At the end of the study, parameters related to CVD and OS were evaluated in plasma, urine and different organs. SHROB rats presented statistically significant differences from Wistar rats in CVD risk factors: total cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, triglycerides, apoA1, apoB100, abdominal fat, insulin, blood pressure, C-reactive protein, ICAM-1 and PAI-1. In adipose tissue, liver and brain, the endogenous antioxidant systems were activated, yet there was no significant oxidative damage to lipids (MDA or proteins (carbonylation. We conclude that SHROB rats present significant alterations in parameters related to inflammation, endothelial dysfunction, thrombotic activity, insulin resistance and OS measured in plasma as well as enhanced redox defence systems in vital organs that will be useful as markers of MetS and CVD for nutrition interventions.

  7. Renormalization group: New relations between the parameters of the Standard Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juárez W., S. Rebeca; Kielanowski, Piotr; Mora, Gerardo; Bohm, Arno

    2017-09-01

    We analyze the renormalization group equations for the Standard Model at the one and two loops levels. At one loop level we find an exact constant of evolution built from the product of the quark masses and the gauge couplings g1 and g3 of the U (1) and SU (3) groups. For leptons at one loop level we find that the ratio of the charged lepton mass and the power of g1 varies ≃ 4 ×10-5 in the whole energy range. At the two loop level we have found two relations between the quark masses and the gauge couplings that vary ≃ 4% and ≃ 1%, respectively. For leptons at the two loop level we have derived a relation between the charged lepton mass and the gauge couplings g1 and g2 that varies ≃ 0.1%. This analysis significantly simplifies the picture of the renormalization group evolution of the Standard Model and establishes new important relations between its parameters. There is also included a discussion of the gauge invariance of our relations and its possible relation to the reduction of couplings method.

  8. Renormalization group: New relations between the parameters of the Standard Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Rebeca Juárez W.

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the renormalization group equations for the Standard Model at the one and two loops levels. At one loop level we find an exact constant of evolution built from the product of the quark masses and the gauge couplings g1 and g3 of the U(1 and SU(3 groups. For leptons at one loop level we find that the ratio of the charged lepton mass and the power of g1 varies ≃4×10−5 in the whole energy range. At the two loop level we have found two relations between the quark masses and the gauge couplings that vary ≃4% and ≃1%, respectively. For leptons at the two loop level we have derived a relation between the charged lepton mass and the gauge couplings g1 and g2 that varies ≃0.1%. This analysis significantly simplifies the picture of the renormalization group evolution of the Standard Model and establishes new important relations between its parameters. There is also included a discussion of the gauge invariance of our relations and its possible relation to the reduction of couplings method.

  9. Lumped-parameter models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, M.

    2006-12-15

    A lumped-parameter model represents the frequency dependent soil-structure interaction of a massless foundation placed on or embedded into an unbounded soil domain. In this technical report the steps of establishing a lumped-parameter model are presented. Following sections are included in this report: Static and dynamic formulation, Simple lumped-parameter models and Advanced lumped-parameter models. (au)

  10. Distributed Parameter Modelling Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2011-01-01

    Here the issue of distributed parameter models is addressed. Spatial variations as well as time are considered important. Several applications for both steady state and dynamic applications are given. These relate to the processing of oil shale, the granulation of industrial fertilizers and the d......Here the issue of distributed parameter models is addressed. Spatial variations as well as time are considered important. Several applications for both steady state and dynamic applications are given. These relate to the processing of oil shale, the granulation of industrial fertilizers...... sands processing. The fertilizer granulation model considers the dynamics of MAP-DAP (mono and diammonium phosphates) production within an industrial granulator, that involves complex crystallisation, chemical reaction and particle growth, captured through population balances. A final example considers...

  11. Modelling suspended-sediment propagation and related heavy metal contamination in floodplains: a parameter sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hostache, R.; Hissler, C.; Matgen, P.; Guignard, C.; Bates, P.

    2014-09-01

    Fine sediments represent an important vector of pollutant diffusion in rivers. When deposited in floodplains and riverbeds, they can be responsible for soil pollution. In this context, this paper proposes a modelling exercise aimed at predicting transport and diffusion of fine sediments and dissolved pollutants. The model is based upon the Telemac hydro-informatic system (dynamical coupling Telemac-2D-Sysiphe). As empirical and semiempirical parameters need to be calibrated for such a modelling exercise, a sensitivity analysis is proposed. An innovative point in this study is the assessment of the usefulness of dissolved trace metal contamination information for model calibration. Moreover, for supporting the modelling exercise, an extensive database was set up during two flood events. It includes water surface elevation records, discharge measurements and geochemistry data such as time series of dissolved/particulate contaminants and suspended-sediment concentrations. The most sensitive parameters were found to be the hydraulic friction coefficients and the sediment particle settling velocity in water. It was also found that model calibration did not benefit from dissolved trace metal contamination information. Using the two monitored hydrological events as calibration and validation, it was found that the model is able to satisfyingly predict suspended sediment and dissolve pollutant transport in the river channel. In addition, a qualitative comparison between simulated sediment deposition in the floodplain and a soil contamination map shows that the preferential zones for deposition identified by the model are realistic.

  12. Assessing the relative importance of parameter and forcing uncertainty and their interactions in conceptual hydrological model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mockler, E. M.; Chun, K. P.; Sapriza-Azuri, G.; Bruen, M.; Wheater, H. S.

    2016-11-01

    Predictions of river flow dynamics provide vital information for many aspects of water management including water resource planning, climate adaptation, and flood and drought assessments. Many of the subjective choices that modellers make including model and criteria selection can have a significant impact on the magnitude and distribution of the output uncertainty. Hydrological modellers are tasked with understanding and minimising the uncertainty surrounding streamflow predictions before communicating the overall uncertainty to decision makers. Parameter uncertainty in conceptual rainfall-runoff models has been widely investigated, and model structural uncertainty and forcing data have been receiving increasing attention. This study aimed to assess uncertainties in streamflow predictions due to forcing data and the identification of behavioural parameter sets in 31 Irish catchments. By combining stochastic rainfall ensembles and multiple parameter sets for three conceptual rainfall-runoff models, an analysis of variance model was used to decompose the total uncertainty in streamflow simulations into contributions from (i) forcing data, (ii) identification of model parameters and (iii) interactions between the two. The analysis illustrates that, for our subjective choices, hydrological model selection had a greater contribution to overall uncertainty, while performance criteria selection influenced the relative intra-annual uncertainties in streamflow predictions. Uncertainties in streamflow predictions due to the method of determining parameters were relatively lower for wetter catchments, and more evenly distributed throughout the year when the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of logarithmic values of flow (lnNSE) was the evaluation criterion.

  13. Lumped-parameter models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, Morten

    A lumped-parameter model represents the frequency dependent soil-structure interaction of a massless foundation placed on or embedded into an unbounded soil domain. The lumped-parameter model development have been reported by (Wolf 1991b; Wolf 1991a; Wolf and Paronesso 1991; Wolf and Paronesso 19...

  14. Research on Model and Related Parameters of Supercritical CO2 Injection into Depleted Reservoir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Pinghua; He, Jun

    2017-07-01

    On the basis of the research on CO2 geological storage and enhanced oil recovery(EOR) technology, a random porosity distribution model which conforms to logarithmic normal distribution was adopted in order to describe the heterogeneous characteristics of pore structure. On this basis, the two-phase flow model of CO2-formation water was established to describe the displacement process. Through the simulation of CO2 injection into depleted reservoir, it confirmed that injection point pressure was associated with the temperature and depth of the formation except heterogeneity. But the saturation distribution was greatly influenced by formation heterogeneity and depth. Thus, the space utilization of the injection layer reduced gradually with the depth increasing. The related research is important for CO2 storage, migration and evolution in depleted reservoir.

  15. Using a variance-based sensitivity analysis for analyzing the relation between measurements and unknown parameters of a physical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, J.; Tiede, C.

    2011-05-01

    An implementation of uncertainty analysis (UA) and quantitative global sensitivity analysis (SA) is applied to the non-linear inversion of gravity changes and three-dimensional displacement data which were measured in and active volcanic area. A didactic example is included to illustrate the computational procedure. The main emphasis is placed on the problem of extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (E-FAST). This method produces the total sensitivity indices (TSIs), so that all interactions between the unknown input parameters are taken into account. The possible correlations between the output an the input parameters can be evaluated by uncertainty analysis. Uncertainty analysis results indicate the general fit between the physical model and the measurements. Results of the sensitivity analysis show quite different sensitivities for the measured changes as they relate to the unknown parameters of a physical model for an elastic-gravitational source. Assuming a fixed number of executions, thirty different seeds are observed to determine the stability of this method.

  16. Mathematical model relating uniaxial compressive behavior of manufactured sand mortar to MIP-derived pore structure parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Zhenghong; Bu, Jingwu

    2014-01-01

    The uniaxial compression response of manufactured sand mortars proportioned using different water-cement ratio and sand-cement ratio is examined. Pore structure parameters such as porosity, threshold diameter, mean diameter, and total amounts of macropores, as well as shape and size of micropores are quantified by using mercury intrusion porosimetry (MIP) technique. Test results indicate that strains at peak stress and compressive strength decreased with the increasing sand-cement ratio due to insufficient binders to wrap up entire sand. A compression stress-strain model of normal concrete extending to predict the stress-strain relationships of manufactured sand mortar is verified and agreed well with experimental data. Furthermore, the stress-strain model constant is found to be influenced by threshold diameter, mean diameter, shape, and size of micropores. A mathematical model relating stress-strain model constants to the relevant pore structure parameters of manufactured sand mortar is developed.

  17. Bianchi Type-II inflationary models with constant deceleration parameter in general relativity

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    C P Singh; S Kumar

    2007-05-01

    Einstein's field equations are considered for a locally rotationally symmetric Bianchi Type-II space–time in the presence of a massless scalar field with a scalar potential. Exact solutions of scale factors and other physical parameters are obtained by using a special law of variation for Hubble's parameter that yields a constant value of deceleration parameter. To get inflationary solutions, a flat region is considered in which the scalar potential is constant. Power-law and exponential cases are studied and in both solutions there is an anisotropic expansion of the cosmic fluid, but the fluid has vanishing vorticity. A detailed study of geometrical and kinematical properties of solutions has been carried out.

  18. Response model parameter linking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barrett, Michelle Derbenwick

    2015-01-01

    With a few exceptions, the problem of linking item response model parameters from different item calibrations has been conceptualized as an instance of the problem of equating observed scores on different test forms. This thesis argues, however, that the use of item response models does not require

  19. Mode choice model parameters estimation

    OpenAIRE

    Strnad, Irena

    2010-01-01

    The present work focuses on parameter estimation of two mode choice models: multinomial logit and EVA 2 model, where four different modes and five different trip purposes are taken into account. Mode choice model discusses the behavioral aspect of mode choice making and enables its application to a traffic model. Mode choice model includes mode choice affecting trip factors by using each mode and their relative importance to choice made. When trip factor values are known, it...

  20. The influence of hyper-parameters in the infinite relational model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Albers, Kristoffer Jon; Mørup, Morten; Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard

    2016-01-01

    is the Chinese restaurant process, and the link probabilities are, in the most simple setting, modeled as iid. with a common symmetric Beta prior. More advanced priors such as separate asymmetric Beta priors for links within and between clusters have also been proposed. In this paper we investigate...

  1. Diurnal Cycle of the North American Monsoon in a Mesoscale Model Simulation: Evolution of Key Parameters in Relation to Precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weizhong Zheng

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The diurnal cycle of the North American monsoon is analyzed based on the output from a mesoscale model simulation. Statistically significant diurnal cycle in precipitation is identified, with heavy precipitation—essentially convective—dominating in local afternoons. Temporal evolution of key parameters in relation to precipitation is investigated, based on which a sequence of the dynamic/thermodynamic processes underlying precipitation development is proposed. Particularly, the afternoon peak in precipitation is found preceded by enhanced static instability and low-level convergence.

  2. Photovoltaic module parameters acquisition model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cibira, Gabriel; Koščová, Marcela

    2014-09-01

    This paper presents basic procedures for photovoltaic (PV) module parameters acquisition using MATLAB and Simulink modelling. In first step, MATLAB and Simulink theoretical model are set to calculate I-V and P-V characteristics for PV module based on equivalent electrical circuit. Then, limited I-V data string is obtained from examined PV module using standard measurement equipment at standard irradiation and temperature conditions and stated into MATLAB data matrix as a reference model. Next, the theoretical model is optimized to keep-up with the reference model and to learn its basic parameters relations, over sparse data matrix. Finally, PV module parameters are deliverable for acquisition at different realistic irradiation, temperature conditions as well as series resistance. Besides of output power characteristics and efficiency calculation for PV module or system, proposed model validates computing statistical deviation compared to reference model.

  3. MODEL-ASSISTED ESTIMATION OF THE GENETIC VARIABILITY IN PHYSIOLOGICAL PARAMETERS RELATED TO TOMATO FRUIT GROWTH UNDER CONTRASTED WATER CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Constantinescu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Drought stress is a major abiotic stres threatening plant and crop productivity. In case of fleshy fruits, understanding Drought stress is a major abiotic stress threatening plant and crop productivity. In case of fleshy fruits, understanding mechanisms governing water and carbon accumulations and identifying genes, QTLs and phenotypes, that will enable trade-offs between fruit growth and quality under Water Deficit (WD condition is a crucial challenge for breeders and growers. In the present work, 117 recombinant inbred lines of a population of Solanum lycopersicum were phenotyped under control and WD conditions. Plant water status, fruit growth and composition were measured and data were used to calibrate a process-based model describing water and carbon fluxes in a growing fruit as a function of plant and environment. Eight genotype-dependent model parameters were estimated using a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm in order to minimize the prediction errors of fruit dry and fresh mass throughout fruit development. WD increased the fruit dry matter content (up to 85 % and decreased its fresh weight (up to 60 %, big fruit size genotypes being the most sensitive. The mean normalized root mean squared errors of the predictions ranged between 16-18 % in the population. Variability in model genotypic parameters allowed us to explore diverse genetic strategies in response to WD. An interesting group of genotypes could be discriminated in which i the low loss of fresh mass under WD was associated with high active uptake of sugars and low value of the maximum cell wall extensibility, and ii the high dry matter content in control treatment (C was associated with a slow decrease of mass flow. Using 501 SNP markers genotyped across the genome, a QTL analysis of model parameters allowed to detect three main QTLs related to xylem and phloem conductivities, on chromosomes 2, 4 and 8. The model was then applied to design ideotypes with high dry matter

  4. Vegetable dietary fibres made with minimal processing improve health-related faecal parameters in a valid rat model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monro, John; Mishra, Suman; Redman, Claire; Somerfield, Sheryl; Ng, Jovyn

    2016-06-15

    Dietary fibre-induced faecal bulking and hydration are important contributors to large bowel function and health, and are affected by the dietary fibre structure. To determine faecal bulk-related parameters for vegetable dietary fibres with retained structure, cold water fragmentation of vegetables was used to make minimally processed vegetable fibres (MPVF) from swede, broccoli and asparagus. A valid adult rat model was used to subject the fibres to processes of hind gut fermentation and faecal accumulation similar to those in humans. All the MPVFs had high faecal bulking indexes (FBIs, mean ± sem: wheat bran (reference), 100 ± 6.0; asparagus 168 ± 5.7; swede 135 ± 6.1; broccoli 135 ± 5.9; broccoli rind 205 ± 10.4), and caused large increases in the theoretical colonic water load at 10 g per 100 g diet (increase over baseline (%): wheat bran, 137 ± 8.3; asparagus, 236 ± 25, swede 193 ± 8.8; broccoli 228 ± 12; broccoli rind 223 ± 8.5). Faecal bulking by MPVFs was much greater than by fermentable extracted polysaccharides such as pectin and raftilose, or by commercial fibres made from highly processed cell walls. The results show natural, non-degraded vegetable fibres with retained botanical structure have beneficial effects not provided by structure-less fermentable dietary fibres. Dietary fibre-deficient diets supplemented with prebiotics cannot, therefore, adequately substitute for varied diets containing adequate vegetables, fruits and wholegrain cereals in which fermentation is associated with enough retained structure to conserve physicochemical properties of benefit to colonic function.

  5. PARAMETER ESTIMATION IN BREAD BAKING MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    Hadiyanto Hadiyanto; AJB van Boxtel

    2012-01-01

    Bread product quality is highly dependent to the baking process. A model for the development of product quality, which was obtained by using quantitative and qualitative relationships, was calibrated by experiments at a fixed baking temperature of 200°C alone and in combination with 100 W microwave powers. The model parameters were estimated in a stepwise procedure i.e. first, heat and mass transfer related parameters, then the parameters related to product transformations and finally pro...

  6. Cosmological models with constant deceleration parameter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berman, M.S.; de Mello Gomide, F.

    1988-02-01

    Berman presented elsewhere a law of variation for Hubble's parameter that yields constant deceleration parameter models of the universe. By analyzing Einstein, Pryce-Hoyle and Brans-Dicke cosmologies, we derive here the necessary relations in each model, considering a perfect fluid.

  7. Relating pressure tuned coupled column ensembles with the solvation parameter model for tunable selectivity in gas chromatography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharif, Khan M; Kulsing, Chadin; Chin, Sung-Tong; Marriott, Philip J

    2016-07-15

    The differential pressure drop of carrier gas by tuning the junction point pressure of a coupled column gas chromatographic system leads to a unique selectivity of the overall separation, which can be tested using a mixture of compounds with a wide range of polarity. This study demonstrates a pressure tuning (PT) GC system employing a microfluidic Deans switch located at the mid-point of the two capillary columns. This PT system allowed variations of inlet-outlet pressure differences of the two columns in a range of 52-17psi for the upstream column and 31-11psi for the downstream column. Peak shifting (differential migration) of compounds due to PT difference are related to a first order regression equation in a Plackett-Burman factorial study. Increased first (upstream) column pressure drop makes the second column characteristics more significant in the coupled column retention behavior, and conversely increased second (downstream) column pressure drop makes the first column characteristics more apparent; such variation can result in component swapping between polar and non-polar compounds. The coupled column system selectivity was evaluated in terms of linear solvation energy relationship (LSER) parameters, and their relation with different pressure drop effects has been constructed by applying multivariate principle component analysis (PCA). It has been found that the coupled column PT system descriptors provide a result that shows a clear clustering of different pressure settings, somewhat intermediate between those of the two commercial columns. This is equivalent to that obtained from a conventional single-column GC analysis where the interaction energy contributed from the stationary phases can be significantly adjusted by choice of midpoint PT. This result provides a foundation for pressure differentiation for selectivity enhancement.

  8. Statefinder parameters in two dark energy models

    CERN Document Server

    Panotopoulos, Grigoris

    2007-01-01

    The statefinder parameters ($r,s$) in two dark energy models are studied. In the first, we discuss in four-dimensional General Relativity a two fluid model, in which dark energy and dark matter are allowed to interact with each other. In the second model, we consider the DGP brane model generalized by taking a possible energy exchange between the brane and the bulk into account. We determine the values of the statefinder parameters that correspond to the unique attractor of the system at hand. Furthermore, we produce plots in which we show $s,r$ as functions of red-shift, and the ($s-r$) plane for each model.

  9. Trait Characteristics of Diffusion Model Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna-Lena Schubert

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Cognitive modeling of response time distributions has seen a huge rise in popularity in individual differences research. In particular, several studies have shown that individual differences in the drift rate parameter of the diffusion model, which reflects the speed of information uptake, are substantially related to individual differences in intelligence. However, if diffusion model parameters are to reflect trait-like properties of cognitive processes, they have to qualify as trait-like variables themselves, i.e., they have to be stable across time and consistent over different situations. To assess their trait characteristics, we conducted a latent state-trait analysis of diffusion model parameters estimated from three response time tasks that 114 participants completed at two laboratory sessions eight months apart. Drift rate, boundary separation, and non-decision time parameters showed a great temporal stability over a period of eight months. However, the coefficients of consistency and reliability were only low to moderate and highest for drift rate parameters. These results show that the consistent variance of diffusion model parameters across tasks can be regarded as temporally stable ability parameters. Moreover, they illustrate the need for using broader batteries of response time tasks in future studies on the relationship between diffusion model parameters and intelligence.

  10. Distribution model of understory vegetation in beech forests from Central Apennines (Italy in relation to edaphic parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    De Nicola C

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available The first results of a study of monitoring species and habitats in the framework of the Life 04NAT/IT/000190 "Tutela dei siti Natura 2000 gestiti dal Corpo Forestale dello Stato" are presented. This study was carried out by the Department of Plant Biology of the University of Rome (La Sapienza and the National Forest Service. We focused the investigation on the relationships between herbaceous species and pedological parameters (humus and soil in Central-Apennine beech forests. Data have been collected through 40 phytosociological relevés, 15 soil profiles and 40 humus profiles in 40 forest plots, between March 2005 and September 2006. In this paper we presented data elaborated on a subset of 15 plots where soil profiles were available. The species of undergrowth showed different ecological requirements to some edaphic and humus parameters (pH, sand, loam, clay, organic matter, nitrogen, carbon/nitrogen ratio, Ca++, K+;thickness and carbon content of the organic layers: significant correlations have been found using Pearson correlation test. The multiple regression analysis allowed to identify the factors more influencing the species distribution: thickness of the organic layers, carbon content (% C and carbon/nitrogen ratio (C/N. Basing on the thickness of humus horizons (OL, OF, OH, and on carbon content, two species groups with different ecology have been recognized: (a nemoral species typical of shady beech stands on oligomull/dysmull/thin amphimull (0 < 1cm.; 5.7 < %C < 9.9; (b heliophilous species of more xeric stands on thick amphimull (1.25 < 11.5 cm.; 9.9 < %C < 13.7. The relationships among species and soil parameters and humus forms allow to recognize small differences within a homogeneous habitat and therefore they can provide management indications also at micro-scale level.

  11. PARAMETER ESTIMATION IN BREAD BAKING MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hadiyanto Hadiyanto

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Bread product quality is highly dependent to the baking process. A model for the development of product quality, which was obtained by using quantitative and qualitative relationships, was calibrated by experiments at a fixed baking temperature of 200°C alone and in combination with 100 W microwave powers. The model parameters were estimated in a stepwise procedure i.e. first, heat and mass transfer related parameters, then the parameters related to product transformations and finally product quality parameters. There was a fair agreement between the calibrated model results and the experimental data. The results showed that the applied simple qualitative relationships for quality performed above expectation. Furthermore, it was confirmed that the microwave input is most meaningful for the internal product properties and not for the surface properties as crispness and color. The model with adjusted parameters was applied in a quality driven food process design procedure to derive a dynamic operation pattern, which was subsequently tested experimentally to calibrate the model. Despite the limited calibration with fixed operation settings, the model predicted well on the behavior under dynamic convective operation and on combined convective and microwave operation. It was expected that the suitability between model and baking system could be improved further by performing calibration experiments at higher temperature and various microwave power levels.  Abstrak  PERKIRAAN PARAMETER DALAM MODEL UNTUK PROSES BAKING ROTI. Kualitas produk roti sangat tergantung pada proses baking yang digunakan. Suatu model yang telah dikembangkan dengan metode kualitatif dan kuantitaif telah dikalibrasi dengan percobaan pada temperatur 200oC dan dengan kombinasi dengan mikrowave pada 100 Watt. Parameter-parameter model diestimasi dengan prosedur bertahap yaitu pertama, parameter pada model perpindahan masa dan panas, parameter pada model transformasi, dan

  12. Delineating Parameter Unidentifiabilities in Complex Models

    CERN Document Server

    Raman, Dhruva V; Papachristodoulou, Antonis

    2016-01-01

    Scientists use mathematical modelling to understand and predict the properties of complex physical systems. In highly parameterised models there often exist relationships between parameters over which model predictions are identical, or nearly so. These are known as structural or practical unidentifiabilities, respectively. They are hard to diagnose and make reliable parameter estimation from data impossible. They furthermore imply the existence of an underlying model simplification. We describe a scalable method for detecting unidentifiabilities, and the functional relations defining them, for generic models. This allows for model simplification, and appreciation of which parameters (or functions thereof) cannot be estimated from data. Our algorithm can identify features such as redundant mechanisms and fast timescale subsystems, as well as the regimes in which such approximations are valid. We base our algorithm on a novel quantification of regional parametric sensitivity: multiscale sloppiness. Traditional...

  13. A mathematical simulation of the ureter: effects of the model parameters on ureteral pressure/flow relations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vahidi, Bahman; Fatouraee, Nasser; Imanparast, Ali; Moghadam, Abbas Nasiraei

    2011-03-01

    Ureteral peristaltic mechanism facilitates urine transport from the kidney to the bladder. Numerical analysis of the peristaltic flow in the ureter aims to further our understanding of the reflux phenomenon and other ureteral abnormalities. Fluid-structure interaction (FSI) plays an important role in accuracy of this approach and the arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) formulation is a strong method to analyze the coupled fluid-structure interaction between the compliant wall and the surrounding fluid. This formulation, however, was not used in previous studies of peristalsis in living organisms. In the present investigation, a numerical simulation is introduced and solved through ALE formulation to perform the ureteral flow and stress analysis. The incompressible Navier-Stokes equations are used as the governing equations for the fluid, and a linear elastic model is utilized for the compliant wall. The wall stimulation is modeled by nonlinear contact analysis using a rigid contact surface since an appropriate model for simulation of ureteral peristalsis needs to contain cell-to-cell wall stimulation. In contrast to previous studies, the wall displacements are not predetermined in the presented model of this finite-length compliant tube, neither the peristalsis needs to be periodic. Moreover, the temporal changes of ureteral wall intraluminal shear stress during peristalsis are included in our study. Iterative computing of two-way coupling is used to solve the governing equations. Two phases of nonperistaltic and peristaltic transport of urine in the ureter are discussed. Results are obtained following an analysis of the effects of the ureteral wall compliance, the pressure difference between the ureteral inlet and outlet, the maximum height of the contraction wave, the contraction wave velocity, and the number of contraction waves on the ureteral outlet flow. The results indicate that the proximal part of the ureter is prone to a higher shear stress during

  14. Effect of Correlations Between Model Parameters and Nuisance Parameters When Model Parameters are Fit to Data

    CERN Document Server

    Roe, Byron

    2013-01-01

    The effect of correlations between model parameters and nuisance parameters is discussed, in the context of fitting model parameters to data. Modifications to the usual $\\chi^2$ method are required. Fake data studies, as used at present, will not be optimum. Problems will occur for applications of the Maltoni-Schwetz \\cite{ms} theorem. Neutrino oscillations are used as examples, but the problems discussed here are general ones, which are often not addressed.

  15. Parameter Estimation for Thurstone Choice Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vojnovic, Milan [London School of Economics (United Kingdom); Yun, Seyoung [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-04-24

    We consider the estimation accuracy of individual strength parameters of a Thurstone choice model when each input observation consists of a choice of one item from a set of two or more items (so called top-1 lists). This model accommodates the well-known choice models such as the Luce choice model for comparison sets of two or more items and the Bradley-Terry model for pair comparisons. We provide a tight characterization of the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator. We also provide similar characterizations for parameter estimators defined by a rank-breaking method, which amounts to deducing one or more pair comparisons from a comparison of two or more items, assuming independence of these pair comparisons, and maximizing a likelihood function derived under these assumptions. We also consider a related binary classification problem where each individual parameter takes value from a set of two possible values and the goal is to correctly classify all items within a prescribed classification error. The results of this paper shed light on how the parameter estimation accuracy depends on given Thurstone choice model and the structure of comparison sets. In particular, we found that for unbiased input comparison sets of a given cardinality, when in expectation each comparison set of given cardinality occurs the same number of times, for a broad class of Thurstone choice models, the mean squared error decreases with the cardinality of comparison sets, but only marginally according to a diminishing returns relation. On the other hand, we found that there exist Thurstone choice models for which the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator can decrease much faster with the cardinality of comparison sets. We report empirical evaluation of some claims and key parameters revealed by theory using both synthetic and real-world input data from some popular sport competitions and online labor platforms.

  16. Hail parameter relations - A comprehensive digest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulbrich, C. W.; Atlas, D.

    1982-01-01

    Diagrams of hail size parameters are presented and attempts are made to correlate size and mass/volume as indicators of integral quantities of hailstone fall. Radar cross-sections are presented, along with related radar parameters such as the equivalent radar reflectivity factor, the mean Doppler fallspeed, the variance of the Doppler spectrum, and the ratio of the reflectivity factors for the 3.21 and 10.0 cm radar wavelengths used. An analysis of the possible effects of natural or artificial modification of the hail size distribution are discussed.

  17. Delineating parameter unidentifiabilities in complex models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raman, Dhruva V.; Anderson, James; Papachristodoulou, Antonis

    2017-03-01

    Scientists use mathematical modeling as a tool for understanding and predicting the properties of complex physical systems. In highly parametrized models there often exist relationships between parameters over which model predictions are identical, or nearly identical. These are known as structural or practical unidentifiabilities, respectively. They are hard to diagnose and make reliable parameter estimation from data impossible. They furthermore imply the existence of an underlying model simplification. We describe a scalable method for detecting unidentifiabilities, as well as the functional relations defining them, for generic models. This allows for model simplification, and appreciation of which parameters (or functions thereof) cannot be estimated from data. Our algorithm can identify features such as redundant mechanisms and fast time-scale subsystems, as well as the regimes in parameter space over which such approximations are valid. We base our algorithm on a quantification of regional parametric sensitivity that we call `multiscale sloppiness'. Traditionally, the link between parametric sensitivity and the conditioning of the parameter estimation problem is made locally, through the Fisher information matrix. This is valid in the regime of infinitesimal measurement uncertainty. We demonstrate the duality between multiscale sloppiness and the geometry of confidence regions surrounding parameter estimates made where measurement uncertainty is non-negligible. Further theoretical relationships are provided linking multiscale sloppiness to the likelihood-ratio test. From this, we show that a local sensitivity analysis (as typically done) is insufficient for determining the reliability of parameter estimation, even with simple (non)linear systems. Our algorithm can provide a tractable alternative. We finally apply our methods to a large-scale, benchmark systems biology model of necrosis factor (NF)-κ B , uncovering unidentifiabilities.

  18. Critical Finite Size Scaling Relation of the Order-Parameter Probability Distribution for the Three-Dimensional Ising Model on the Creutz Cellular Automaton

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    B. Kutlu; M. Civi

    2006-01-01

    @@ We study the order parameter probability distribution at the critical point for the three-dimensional spin-1/2 and spin-1 Ising models on the simple cubic lattice under periodic boundary conditions.

  19. An Optimization Model of Tunnel Support Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Su Lijuan

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available An optimization model was developed to obtain the ideal values of the primary support parameters of tunnels, which are wide-ranging in high-speed railway design codes when the surrounding rocks are at the III, IV, and V levels. First, several sets of experiments were designed and simulated using the FLAC3D software under an orthogonal experimental design. Six factors, namely, level of surrounding rock, buried depth of tunnel, lateral pressure coefficient, anchor spacing, anchor length, and shotcrete thickness, were considered. Second, a regression equation was generated by conducting a multiple linear regression analysis following the analysis of the simulation results. Finally, the optimization model of support parameters was obtained by solving the regression equation using the least squares method. In practical projects, the optimized values of support parameters could be obtained by integrating known parameters into the proposed model. In this work, the proposed model was verified on the basis of the Liuyang River Tunnel Project. Results show that the optimization model significantly reduces related costs. The proposed model can also be used as a reliable reference for other high-speed railway tunnels.

  20. Investigating the relation between the geometric properties of river basins and the filtering parameters for regional land hydrology applications using GRACE models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piretzidis, Dimitrios; Sideris, Michael G.

    2016-04-01

    This study investigates the possibilities of local hydrology signal extraction using GRACE data and conventional filtering techniques. The impact of the basin shape has also been studied in order to derive empirical rules for tuning the GRACE filter parameters. GRACE CSR Release 05 monthly solutions were used from April 2002 to August 2015 (161 monthly solutions in total). SLR data were also used to replace the GRACE C2,0 coefficient, and a de-correlation filter with optimal parameters for CSR Release 05 data was applied to attenuate the correlation errors of monthly mass differences. For basins located at higher latitudes, the effect of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) was taken into account using the ICE-6G model. The study focuses on three geometric properties, i.e., the area, the convexity and the width in the longitudinal direction, of 100 basins with global distribution. Two experiments have been performed. The first one deals with the determination of the Gaussian smoothing radius that minimizes the gaussianity of GRACE equivalent water height (EWH) over the selected basins. The EWH kurtosis was selected as a metric of gaussianity. The second experiment focuses on the derivation of the Gaussian smoothing radius that minimizes the RMS difference between GRACE data and a hydrology model. The GLDAS 1.0 Noah hydrology model was chosen, which shows good agreement with GRACE data according to previous studies. Early results show that there is an apparent relation between the geometric attributes of the basins examined and the Gaussian radius derived from the two experiments. The kurtosis analysis experiment tends to underestimate the optimal Gaussian radius, which is close to 200-300 km in many cases. Empirical rules for the selection of the Gaussian radius have been also developed for sub-regional scale basins.

  1. Correlations between (51)V solid-state NMR parameters and chemical structure of vanadium (V) complexes as models for related metalloproteins and catalysts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenn, Annika; Wächtler, Maria; Gutmann, Torsten; Breitzke, Hergen; Buchholz, Axel; Lippold, Ines; Plass, Winfried; Buntkowsky, Gerd

    2009-12-01

    The parameters describing the quadrupolar and CSA interactions of 51V solid-state MAS NMR investigations of model complexes mimicking vanadoenzymes as well as vanadium containing catalysts and enzyme complexes are interpreted with respect to the chemical structure. The interpretation is based on the data of 15 vanadium complexes including two new complexes with previously unpublished data and 13 complexes with data previously published by us. Correlations between the chemical structure and the 51V solid-state NMR data of this class of compounds have been established. Especially for the isotropic chemical shift delta(iso) and the chemical shift anisotropy delta(sigma), correlations with specific structural features like the coordination number of the vanadium atom, the number of coordinating nitrogens, the number of oxygen atoms and the chemical surrounding of the complex could be established for these compounds. Moreover, quantitative correlations between the solid-state NMR parameters and specific bond angles and bond lengths have been obtained. Our results can be of particular interest for future investigations concerning the structure and the mode of action of related vanadoenzymes and vanadate protein assemblies, including the use of vanadate adducts as transition state analogs for phosphate metabolizing systems.

  2. Relating Doses of Contrast Agent Administered to TIC and Semi-Quantitative Parameters on DCE-MRI: Based on a Murine Breast Tumor Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Menglin Wu

    Full Text Available To explore the changes in the time-signal intensity curve(TIC type and semi-quantitative parameters of dynamic contrast-enhanced(DCEimaging in relation to variations in the contrast agent(CA dosage in the Walker 256 murine breast tumor model, and to determine the appropriate parameters for the evaluation ofneoadjuvantchemotherapy(NACresponse.Walker 256 breast tumor models were established in 21 rats, which were randomly divided into three groups of7rats each. Routine scanning and DCE-magnetic resonance imaging (MRI of the rats were performed using a 7T MR scanner. The three groups of rats were administered different dosages of the CA0.2mmol/kg, 0.3mmol/kg, and 0.5mmol/kg, respectively; and the corresponding TICs the semi-quantitative parameters were calculated and compared among the three groups.The TICs were not influenced by the CA dosage and presented a washout pattern in all of the tumors evaluated and weren't influenced by the CA dose. The values of the initial enhancement percentage(Efirst, initial enhancement velocity(Vfirst, maximum signal(Smax, maximum enhancement percentage(Emax, washout percentage(Ewash, and signal enhancement ratio(SER showed statistically significant differences among the three groups (F = 16.952, p = 0.001; F = 69.483, p<0.001; F = 54.838, p<0.001; F = 12.510, p = 0.003; F = 5.248, p = 0.031; F = 9.733, p = 0.006, respectively. However, the values of the time to peak(Tpeak, maximum enhancement velocity(Vmax, and washout velocity(Vwashdid not differ significantly among the three dosage groups (F = 0.065, p = 0.937; F = 1.505, p = 0.273; χ2 = 1.423, p = 0.319, respectively; the washout slope(Slopewash, too, was uninfluenced by the dosage(F = 1.654, p = 0.244.The CA dosage didn't affect the TIC type, Tpeak, Vmax, Vwash or Slopewash. These dose-independent parameters as well as the TIC type might be more useful for monitoring the NAC response because they allow the comparisons of the DCE data obtained using different

  3. Relating the small parameters of neutrino oscillations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soumita Pramanick

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Neutrino oscillations reveal several small parameters, namely, θ13, the solar mass splitting vis-à-vis the atmospheric one, and the deviation of θ23 from maximal mixing. Can these small quantities all be traced to a single source and, if so, how could that be tested? Here a see-saw model for neutrino masses is presented wherein a dominant term generates the atmospheric mass splitting with maximal mixing in this sector, keeping θ13=0 and zero solar splitting. A Type-I see-saw perturbative contribution results in non-zero values of θ13, Δmsolar2, θ12, as well as allows θ23 to deviate from π/4 in consistency with the data while interrelating them all. CP-violation is a natural consequence and is large (δ∼π/2,3π/2 for inverted mass ordering. The model will be tested as precision on the neutrino parameters is sharpened.

  4. Uncertainty relation based on unbiased parameter estimations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Liang-Liang; Song, Yong-Shun; Qiao, Cong-Feng; Yu, Sixia; Chen, Zeng-Bing

    2017-02-01

    Heisenberg's uncertainty relation has been extensively studied in spirit of its well-known original form, in which the inaccuracy measures used exhibit some controversial properties and don't conform with quantum metrology, where the measurement precision is well defined in terms of estimation theory. In this paper, we treat the joint measurement of incompatible observables as a parameter estimation problem, i.e., estimating the parameters characterizing the statistics of the incompatible observables. Our crucial observation is that, in a sequential measurement scenario, the bias induced by the first unbiased measurement in the subsequent measurement can be eradicated by the information acquired, allowing one to extract unbiased information of the second measurement of an incompatible observable. In terms of Fisher information we propose a kind of information comparison measure and explore various types of trade-offs between the information gains and measurement precisions, which interpret the uncertainty relation as surplus variance trade-off over individual perfect measurements instead of a constraint on extracting complete information of incompatible observables.

  5. Leaf photosynthesis and respiration of three bioenergy crops in relation to temperature and leaf nitrogen: how conserved are biochemical model parameters among crop species?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Archontoulis, S.V.; Yin, X.; Vos, J.; Danalatos, N.G.; Struik, P.C.

    2012-01-01

    Given the need for parallel increases in food and energy production from crops in the context of global change, crop simulation models and data sets to feed these models with photosynthesis and respiration parameters are increasingly important. This study provides information on photosynthesis and r

  6. Remarkable analytic relations among greybody parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elia, Davide; Pezzuto, S.

    2016-09-01

    In this paper we derive and discuss several implications of the analytic form of a modified blackbody, also called greybody, which is widely used in Astrophysics, and in particular in the study of star formation in the far-infrared/submillimetre domain. The research in this area has been greatly improved thanks to recent observations taken with the Herschel satellite, so that it became important to clarify the sense of the greybody approximation, to suggest possible further uses, and to delimit its intervals of validity. First, we discuss the position of the greybody peak, making difference between the optically thin and thick regimes. Second, we analyse the behaviour of bolometric quantities as a function of the different greybody parameters. The ratio between the bolometric luminosity and the mass of a source, the ratio between the so-called `submillimetre luminosity' and the bolometric one, and the bolometric temperature are observables used to characterize the evolutionary stage of a source, and it is of primary importance to have analytic equations describing the dependence of such quantities on the greybody parameters. Here we discuss all these aspects, providing analytic relations, illustrating particular cases, and providing graphical examples. Some equations reported here are well known in Astrophysics, but are often spread over different publications. Some of them, instead, are brand new and represent a novelty in Astrophysics literature. Finally, we indicate an alternative way to obtain, under some conditions, the greybody temperature and dust emissivity index directly from an observing spectral energy distribution, avoiding a best-fitting procedure.

  7. Leaf photosynthesis and respiration of three bioenergy crops in relation to temperature and leaf nitrogen: how conserved are biochemical model parameters among crop species?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Archontoulis, S. V.; Yin, X.; Vos, J.; Danalatos, N. G.; Struik, P. C.

    2012-01-01

    Given the need for parallel increases in food and energy production from crops in the context of global change, crop simulation models and data sets to feed these models with photosynthesis and respiration parameters are increasingly important. This study provides information on photosynthesis and respiration for three energy crops (sunflower, kenaf, and cynara), reviews relevant information for five other crops (wheat, barley, cotton, tobacco, and grape), and assesses how conserved photosynthesis parameters are among crops. Using large data sets and optimization techniques, the C3 leaf photosynthesis model of Farquhar, von Caemmerer, and Berry (FvCB) and an empirical night respiration model for tested energy crops accounting for effects of temperature and leaf nitrogen were parameterized. Instead of the common approach of using information on net photosynthesis response to CO2 at the stomatal cavity (An–Ci), the model was parameterized by analysing the photosynthesis response to incident light intensity (An–Iinc). Convincing evidence is provided that the maximum Rubisco carboxylation rate or the maximum electron transport rate was very similar whether derived from An–Ci or from An–Iinc data sets. Parameters characterizing Rubisco limitation, electron transport limitation, the degree to which light inhibits leaf respiration, night respiration, and the minimum leaf nitrogen required for photosynthesis were then determined. Model predictions were validated against independent sets. Only a few FvCB parameters were conserved among crop species, thus species-specific FvCB model parameters are needed for crop modelling. Therefore, information from readily available but underexplored An–Iinc data should be re-analysed, thereby expanding the potential of combining classical photosynthetic data and the biochemical model. PMID:22021569

  8. Order Parameters of the Dilute A Models

    CERN Document Server

    Warnaar, S O; Seaton, K A; Nienhuis, B

    1993-01-01

    The free energy and local height probabilities of the dilute A models with broken $\\Integer_2$ symmetry are calculated analytically using inversion and corner transfer matrix methods. These models possess four critical branches. The first two branches provide new realisations of the unitary minimal series and the other two branches give a direct product of this series with an Ising model. We identify the integrable perturbations which move the dilute A models away from the critical limit. Generalised order parameters are defined and their critical exponents extracted. The associated conformal weights are found to occur on the diagonal of the relevant Kac table. In an appropriate regime the dilute A$_3$ model lies in the universality class of the Ising model in a magnetic field. In this case we obtain the magnetic exponent $\\delta=15$ directly, without the use of scaling relations.

  9. Relativity Parameters Determined from Lunar Laser Ranging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, J. G.; Newhall, X. X.; Dickey, J. O.

    1996-01-01

    Analysis of 24 years of lunar laser ranging data is used to test the principle of equivalence, geodetic precession, the PPN parameters beta and gamma, and G/G. Recent data can be fitted with a rms scatter of 3 cm. (a) Using the Nordtvedt effect to test the principle of equivalence, it is found that the Moon and Earth accelerate alike in the Sun's field. The relative accelerations match to within 5 x 10(exp -13) . This limit, combined with an independent determination of y from planetary time delay, gives beta. Including the uncertainty due to compositional differences, the parameter beta differs from unity by no more than 0.0014; and, if the weak equivalence principle is satisfied, the difference is no more than 0.0006. (b) Geodetic precession matches its expected 19.2 marc sec/yr rate within 0.7%. This corresponds to a 1% test of gamma. (c) Apart from the Nordtvedt effect, beta and gamma can be tested from their influence on the lunar orbit. It is argued theoretically that the linear combination 0.8(beta) + 1.4(gamma) can be tested at the 1% level of accuracy. For solutions using numerically derived partial derivatives, higher sensitivity is found. Both 6 and y match the values of general relativity to within 0.005, and the linear combination beta+ gamma matches to within 0,003, but caution is advised due to the lack of theoretical understanding of these sensitivities. (d) No evidence for a changing gravitational constant is found, with absolute value of G/G less than or equal to 8 x lO(exp -12)/yr. There is significant sensitivity to G/G through solar perturbations on the lunar orbit.

  10. Relativity Parameters Determined from Lunar Laser Ranging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, J. G.; Newhall, X. X.; Dickey, J. O.

    1996-01-01

    Analysis of 24 years of lunar laser ranging data is used to test the principle of equivalence, geodetic precession, the PPN parameters beta and gamma, and G/G. Recent data can be fitted with a rms scatter of 3 cm. (a) Using the Nordtvedt effect to test the principle of equivalence, it is found that the Moon and Earth accelerate alike in the Sun's field. The relative accelerations match to within 5 x 10(exp -13) . This limit, combined with an independent determination of y from planetary time delay, gives beta. Including the uncertainty due to compositional differences, the parameter beta differs from unity by no more than 0.0014; and, if the weak equivalence principle is satisfied, the difference is no more than 0.0006. (b) Geodetic precession matches its expected 19.2 marc sec/yr rate within 0.7%. This corresponds to a 1% test of gamma. (c) Apart from the Nordtvedt effect, beta and gamma can be tested from their influence on the lunar orbit. It is argued theoretically that the linear combination 0.8(beta) + 1.4(gamma) can be tested at the 1% level of accuracy. For solutions using numerically derived partial derivatives, higher sensitivity is found. Both 6 and y match the values of general relativity to within 0.005, and the linear combination beta+ gamma matches to within 0,003, but caution is advised due to the lack of theoretical understanding of these sensitivities. (d) No evidence for a changing gravitational constant is found, with absolute value of G/G less than or equal to 8 x lO(exp -12)/yr. There is significant sensitivity to G/G through solar perturbations on the lunar orbit.

  11. PARAMETER ESTIMATION OF ENGINEERING TURBULENCE MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    钱炜祺; 蔡金狮

    2001-01-01

    A parameter estimation algorithm is introduced and used to determine the parameters in the standard k-ε two equation turbulence model (SKE). It can be found from the estimation results that although the parameter estimation method is an effective method to determine model parameters, it is difficult to obtain a set of parameters for SKE to suit all kinds of separated flow and a modification of the turbulence model structure should be considered. So, a new nonlinear k-ε two-equation model (NNKE) is put forward in this paper and the corresponding parameter estimation technique is applied to determine the model parameters. By implementing the NNKE to solve some engineering turbulent flows, it is shown that NNKE is more accurate and versatile than SKE. Thus, the success of NNKE implies that the parameter estimation technique may have a bright prospect in engineering turbulence model research.

  12. Modelling tourists arrival using time varying parameter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suciptawati, P.; Sukarsa, K. G.; Kencana, Eka N.

    2017-06-01

    The importance of tourism and its related sectors to support economic development and poverty reduction in many countries increase researchers’ attentions to study and model tourists’ arrival. This work is aimed to demonstrate time varying parameter (TVP) technique to model the arrival of Korean’s tourists to Bali. The number of Korean tourists whom visiting Bali for period January 2010 to December 2015 were used to model the number of Korean’s tourists to Bali (KOR) as dependent variable. The predictors are the exchange rate of Won to IDR (WON), the inflation rate in Korea (INFKR), and the inflation rate in Indonesia (INFID). Observing tourists visit to Bali tend to fluctuate by their nationality, then the model was built by applying TVP and its parameters were approximated using Kalman Filter algorithm. The results showed all of predictor variables (WON, INFKR, INFID) significantly affect KOR. For in-sample and out-of-sample forecast with ARIMA’s forecasted values for the predictors, TVP model gave mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) as much as 11.24 percent and 12.86 percent, respectively.

  13. Approximate universal relations among tidal parameters for neutron star binaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yagi, Kent; Yunes, Nicolás

    2017-01-01

    One of largest uncertainties in nuclear physics is the relation between the pressure and density of supranuclear matter: the equation of state. Some of this uncertainty may be removed through future gravitational wave observations of neutron star binaries by extracting the tidal deformabilities (or Love numbers) of neutron stars, a novel way to probe nuclear physics in the high-density regime. Previous studies have shown that only a certain combination of the individual (quadrupolar) deformabilities of each body (the so-called chirp tidal deformability) can be measured with second-generation, gravitational wave interferometers, such as Adv. LIGO, due to correlations between the individual deformabilities. To overcome this, we search for approximately universal (i.e. approximately equation-of-state independent) relations between two combinations of the individual tidal deformabilities, such that once one of them has been measured, the other can be automatically obtained and the individual ones decoupled through these relations. We find an approximately universal relation between the symmetric and the anti-symmetric combination of the individual tidal deformabilities that is equation-of-state-insensitive to 20 % for binaries with masses less than 1.7{{M}⊙} . We show that these relations can be used to eliminate a combination of the tidal parameters from the list of model parameters, thus breaking degeneracies and improving the accuracy in parameter estimation. A simple (Fisher) study shows that the universal binary Love relations can improve the accuracy in the extraction of the symmetric combination of tidal parameters by as much as an order of magnitude, making the overall accuracy in the extraction of this parameter slightly better than that of the chirp tidal deformability. These new universal relations and the improved measurement accuracy on tidal parameters not only are important to astrophysics and nuclear physics, but also impact our ability to probe

  14. Sensitivity of a Shallow-Water Model to Parameters

    CERN Document Server

    Kazantsev, Eugene

    2011-01-01

    An adjoint based technique is applied to a shallow water model in order to estimate the influence of the model's parameters on the solution. Among parameters the bottom topography, initial conditions, boundary conditions on rigid boundaries, viscosity coefficients Coriolis parameter and the amplitude of the wind stress tension are considered. Their influence is analyzed from three points of view: 1. flexibility of the model with respect to a parameter that is related to the lowest value of the cost function that can be obtained in the data assimilation experiment that controls this parameter; 2. possibility to improve the model by the parameter's control, i.e. whether the solution with the optimal parameter remains close to observations after the end of control; 3. sensitivity of the model solution to the parameter in a classical sense. That implies the analysis of the sensitivity estimates and their comparison with each other and with the local Lyapunov exponents that characterize the sensitivity of the mode...

  15. Robust estimation of hydrological model parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bárdossy

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available The estimation of hydrological model parameters is a challenging task. With increasing capacity of computational power several complex optimization algorithms have emerged, but none of the algorithms gives a unique and very best parameter vector. The parameters of fitted hydrological models depend upon the input data. The quality of input data cannot be assured as there may be measurement errors for both input and state variables. In this study a methodology has been developed to find a set of robust parameter vectors for a hydrological model. To see the effect of observational error on parameters, stochastically generated synthetic measurement errors were applied to observed discharge and temperature data. With this modified data, the model was calibrated and the effect of measurement errors on parameters was analysed. It was found that the measurement errors have a significant effect on the best performing parameter vector. The erroneous data led to very different optimal parameter vectors. To overcome this problem and to find a set of robust parameter vectors, a geometrical approach based on Tukey's half space depth was used. The depth of the set of N randomly generated parameters was calculated with respect to the set with the best model performance (Nash-Sutclife efficiency was used for this study for each parameter vector. Based on the depth of parameter vectors, one can find a set of robust parameter vectors. The results show that the parameters chosen according to the above criteria have low sensitivity and perform well when transfered to a different time period. The method is demonstrated on the upper Neckar catchment in Germany. The conceptual HBV model was used for this study.

  16. Parameter estimation, model reduction and quantum filtering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chase, Bradley A.

    This thesis explores the topics of parameter estimation and model reduction in the context of quantum filtering. The last is a mathematically rigorous formulation of continuous quantum measurement, in which a stream of auxiliary quantum systems is used to infer the state of a target quantum system. Fundamental quantum uncertainties appear as noise which corrupts the probe observations and therefore must be filtered in order to extract information about the target system. This is analogous to the classical filtering problem in which techniques of inference are used to process noisy observations of a system in order to estimate its state. Given the clear similarities between the two filtering problems, I devote the beginning of this thesis to a review of classical and quantum probability theory, stochastic calculus and filtering. This allows for a mathematically rigorous and technically adroit presentation of the quantum filtering problem and solution. Given this foundation, I next consider the related problem of quantum parameter estimation, in which one seeks to infer the strength of a parameter that drives the evolution of a probe quantum system. By embedding this problem in the state estimation problem solved by the quantum filter, I present the optimal Bayesian estimator for a parameter when given continuous measurements of the probe system to which it couples. For cases when the probe takes on a finite number of values, I review a set of sufficient conditions for asymptotic convergence of the estimator. For a continuous-valued parameter, I present a computational method called quantum particle filtering for practical estimation of the parameter. Using these methods, I then study the particular problem of atomic magnetometry and review an experimental method for potentially reducing the uncertainty in the estimate of the magnetic field beyond the standard quantum limit. The technique involves double-passing a probe laser field through the atomic system, giving

  17. Parameter counting in models with global symmetries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berger, Joshua [Institute for High Energy Phenomenology, Newman Laboratory of Elementary Particle Physics, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853 (United States)], E-mail: jb454@cornell.edu; Grossman, Yuval [Institute for High Energy Phenomenology, Newman Laboratory of Elementary Particle Physics, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853 (United States)], E-mail: yuvalg@lepp.cornell.edu

    2009-05-18

    We present rules for determining the number of physical parameters in models with exact flavor symmetries. In such models the total number of parameters (physical and unphysical) needed to described a matrix is less than in a model without the symmetries. Several toy examples are studied in order to demonstrate the rules. The use of global symmetries in studying the minimally supersymmetric standard model (MSSM) is examined.

  18. On parameter estimation in deformable models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fisker, Rune; Carstensen, Jens Michael

    1998-01-01

    Deformable templates have been intensively studied in image analysis through the last decade, but despite its significance the estimation of model parameters has received little attention. We present a method for supervised and unsupervised model parameter estimation using a general Bayesian...... method is based on a modified version of the EM algorithm. Experimental results for a deformable template used for textile inspection are presented...

  19. SOMBI: Bayesian identification of parameter relations in unstructured cosmological data

    CERN Document Server

    Frank, Philipp; Enßlin, Torsten A

    2016-01-01

    This work describes the implementation and application of a correlation determination method based on Self Organizing Maps and Bayesian Inference (SOMBI). SOMBI aims to automatically identify relations between different observed parameters in unstructured cosmological or astrophysical surveys by automatically identifying data clusters in high-dimensional datasets via the Self Organizing Map neural network algorithm. Parameter relations are then revealed by means of a Bayesian inference within respective identified data clusters. Specifically such relations are assumed to be parametrized as a polynomial of unknown order. The Bayesian approach results in a posterior probability distribution function for respective polynomial coefficients. To decide which polynomial order suffices to describe correlation structures in data, we include a method for model selection, the Bayesian Information Criterion, to the analysis. The performance of the SOMBI algorithm is tested with mock data. As illustration we also provide ...

  20. Parameter identification in the logistic STAR model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ekner, Line Elvstrøm; Nejstgaard, Emil

    We propose a new and simple parametrization of the so-called speed of transition parameter of the logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) model. The new parametrization highlights that a consequence of the well-known identification problem of the speed of transition parameter is that th......We propose a new and simple parametrization of the so-called speed of transition parameter of the logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) model. The new parametrization highlights that a consequence of the well-known identification problem of the speed of transition parameter...

  1. Parameter Estimation of Partial Differential Equation Models

    KAUST Repository

    Xun, Xiaolei

    2013-09-01

    Partial differential equation (PDE) models are commonly used to model complex dynamic systems in applied sciences such as biology and finance. The forms of these PDE models are usually proposed by experts based on their prior knowledge and understanding of the dynamic system. Parameters in PDE models often have interesting scientific interpretations, but their values are often unknown and need to be estimated from the measurements of the dynamic system in the presence of measurement errors. Most PDEs used in practice have no analytic solutions, and can only be solved with numerical methods. Currently, methods for estimating PDE parameters require repeatedly solving PDEs numerically under thousands of candidate parameter values, and thus the computational load is high. In this article, we propose two methods to estimate parameters in PDE models: a parameter cascading method and a Bayesian approach. In both methods, the underlying dynamic process modeled with the PDE model is represented via basis function expansion. For the parameter cascading method, we develop two nested levels of optimization to estimate the PDE parameters. For the Bayesian method, we develop a joint model for data and the PDE and develop a novel hierarchical model allowing us to employ Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to make posterior inference. Simulation studies show that the Bayesian method and parameter cascading method are comparable, and both outperform other available methods in terms of estimation accuracy. The two methods are demonstrated by estimating parameters in a PDE model from long-range infrared light detection and ranging data. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. © 2013 American Statistical Association.

  2. Application of lumped-parameter models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, M.

    2006-12-15

    This technical report concerns the lumped-parameter models for a suction caisson with a ratio between skirt length and foundation diameter equal to 1/2, embedded into an viscoelastic soil. The models are presented for three different values of the shear modulus of the subsoil. Subsequently, the assembly of the dynamic stiffness matrix for the foundation is considered, and the solution for obtaining the steady state response, when using lumped-parameter models is given. (au)

  3. Remarkable analytic relations among greybody parameters

    CERN Document Server

    Elia, Davide

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we derive and discuss several implications of the analytic form of a modified blackbody, also called greybody, which is widely used in Astrophysics, and in particular in the study of star formation in the far-infrared/sub-millimeter domain. The research in this area has been greatly improved thanks to recent observations taken with the Herschel satellite, so that it became important to clarify the sense of the greybody approximation, to suggest possible further uses, and to delimi its intervals of validity. First, we discuss the position of the greybody peak, making difference between the optically thin and thick regimes. Second, we analyze the behavior of bolometric quantities as a function of the different greybody parameters. The ratio between the bolometric luminosity and the mass of a source, the ratio between the so-called "sub-millimeter luminosity" and the bolometric one, and the bolometric temperature are observables used to characterize the evolutionary stage of a source, and it is of ...

  4. Parameter Symmetry of the Interacting Boson Model

    CERN Document Server

    Shirokov, A M; Smirnov, Yu F; Shirokov, Andrey M.; Smirnov, Yu. F.

    1998-01-01

    We discuss the symmetry of the parameter space of the interacting boson model (IBM). It is shown that for any set of the IBM Hamiltonian parameters (with the only exception of the U(5) dynamical symmetry limit) one can always find another set that generates the equivalent spectrum. We discuss the origin of the symmetry and its relevance for physical applications.

  5. Wind Farm Decentralized Dynamic Modeling With Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soltani, Mohsen; Shakeri, Sayyed Mojtaba; Grunnet, Jacob Deleuran;

    2010-01-01

    Development of dynamic wind flow models for wind farms is part of the research in European research FP7 project AEOLUS. The objective of this report is to provide decentralized dynamic wind flow models with parameters. The report presents a structure for decentralized flow models with inputs from...

  6. Setting Parameters for Biological Models With ANIMO

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schivo, Stefano; Scholma, Jetse; Karperien, Hermanus Bernardus Johannes; Post, Janine Nicole; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Langerak, Romanus; André, Étienne; Frehse, Goran

    2014-01-01

    ANIMO (Analysis of Networks with Interactive MOdeling) is a software for modeling biological networks, such as e.g. signaling, metabolic or gene networks. An ANIMO model is essentially the sum of a network topology and a number of interaction parameters. The topology describes the interactions

  7. Parameter Estimation, Model Reduction and Quantum Filtering

    CERN Document Server

    Chase, Bradley A

    2009-01-01

    This dissertation explores the topics of parameter estimation and model reduction in the context of quantum filtering. Chapters 2 and 3 provide a review of classical and quantum probability theory, stochastic calculus and filtering. Chapter 4 studies the problem of quantum parameter estimation and introduces the quantum particle filter as a practical computational method for parameter estimation via continuous measurement. Chapter 5 applies these techniques in magnetometry and studies the estimator's uncertainty scalings in a double-pass atomic magnetometer. Chapter 6 presents an efficient feedback controller for continuous-time quantum error correction. Chapter 7 presents an exact model of symmetric processes of collective qubit systems.

  8. The relative weight of shape and non-rigid motion cues in object perception: a model of the parameters underlying dynamic object discrimination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vuong, Quoc C; Friedman, Alinda; Read, Jenny C A

    2012-03-16

    Shape and motion are two dominant cues for object recognition, but it can be difficult to investigate their relative quantitative contribution to the recognition process. In the present study, we combined shape and non-rigid motion morphing to investigate the relative contributions of both types of cues to the discrimination of dynamic objects. In Experiment 1, we validated a novel parameter-based motion morphing technique using a single-part three-dimensional object. We then combined shape morphing with the novel motion morphing technique to pairs of multipart objects to create a joint shape and motion similarity space. In Experiment 2, participants were shown pairs of morphed objects from this space and responded "same" on the basis of motion-only, shape-only, or both cues. Both cue types influenced judgments: When responding to only one cue, the other cue could be ignored, although shape cues were more difficult to ignore. When responding on the basis of both cues, there was an overall bias to weight shape cues more than motion cues. Overall, our results suggest that shape influences discrimination more than motion even when both cue types have been made quantitatively equivalent in terms of their individual discriminability.

  9. Systematic parameter inference in stochastic mesoscopic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, Huan; Yang, Xiu; Li, Zhen; Karniadakis, George Em

    2017-02-01

    We propose a method to efficiently determine the optimal coarse-grained force field in mesoscopic stochastic simulations of Newtonian fluid and polymer melt systems modeled by dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) and energy conserving dissipative particle dynamics (eDPD). The response surfaces of various target properties (viscosity, diffusivity, pressure, etc.) with respect to model parameters are constructed based on the generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansion using simulation results on sampling points (e.g., individual parameter sets). To alleviate the computational cost to evaluate the target properties, we employ the compressive sensing method to compute the coefficients of the dominant gPC terms given the prior knowledge that the coefficients are "sparse". The proposed method shows comparable accuracy with the standard probabilistic collocation method (PCM) while it imposes a much weaker restriction on the number of the simulation samples especially for systems with high dimensional parametric space. Fully access to the response surfaces within the confidence range enables us to infer the optimal force parameters given the desirable values of target properties at the macroscopic scale. Moreover, it enables us to investigate the intrinsic relationship between the model parameters, identify possible degeneracies in the parameter space, and optimize the model by eliminating model redundancies. The proposed method provides an efficient alternative approach for constructing mesoscopic models by inferring model parameters to recover target properties of the physics systems (e.g., from experimental measurements), where those force field parameters and formulation cannot be derived from the microscopic level in a straight forward way.

  10. Application of lumped-parameter models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, Morten

    This technical report concerns the lumped-parameter models for a suction caisson with a ratio between skirt length and foundation diameter equal to 1/2, embedded into an viscoelastic soil. The models are presented for three different values of the shear modulus of the subsoil (section 1.1). Subse...

  11. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, C W [ed.

    1984-01-01

    This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base. (ACR)

  12. Estimation of Model Parameters for Steerable Needles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Wooram; Reed, Kyle B.; Okamura, Allison M.; Chirikjian, Gregory S.

    2010-01-01

    Flexible needles with bevel tips are being developed as useful tools for minimally invasive surgery and percutaneous therapy. When such a needle is inserted into soft tissue, it bends due to the asymmetric geometry of the bevel tip. This insertion with bending is not completely repeatable. We characterize the deviations in needle tip pose (position and orientation) by performing repeated needle insertions into artificial tissue. The base of the needle is pushed at a constant speed without rotating, and the covariance of the distribution of the needle tip pose is computed from experimental data. We develop the closed-form equations to describe how the covariance varies with different model parameters. We estimate the model parameters by matching the closed-form covariance and the experimentally obtained covariance. In this work, we use a needle model modified from a previously developed model with two noise parameters. The modified needle model uses three noise parameters to better capture the stochastic behavior of the needle insertion. The modified needle model provides an improvement of the covariance error from 26.1% to 6.55%. PMID:21643451

  13. Estimation of Model Parameters for Steerable Needles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Wooram; Reed, Kyle B; Okamura, Allison M; Chirikjian, Gregory S

    2010-01-01

    Flexible needles with bevel tips are being developed as useful tools for minimally invasive surgery and percutaneous therapy. When such a needle is inserted into soft tissue, it bends due to the asymmetric geometry of the bevel tip. This insertion with bending is not completely repeatable. We characterize the deviations in needle tip pose (position and orientation) by performing repeated needle insertions into artificial tissue. The base of the needle is pushed at a constant speed without rotating, and the covariance of the distribution of the needle tip pose is computed from experimental data. We develop the closed-form equations to describe how the covariance varies with different model parameters. We estimate the model parameters by matching the closed-form covariance and the experimentally obtained covariance. In this work, we use a needle model modified from a previously developed model with two noise parameters. The modified needle model uses three noise parameters to better capture the stochastic behavior of the needle insertion. The modified needle model provides an improvement of the covariance error from 26.1% to 6.55%.

  14. On Relative Accessibility Depending on a Set of Parameters

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张明义

    1989-01-01

    Ewa Orlowska[1,2] presented a class of relationsd-accessibiltiy relations determined by a set of parameters.These parameters are a formal counterpart of properties or characteristics of states which are associated by means of accessibility relation.The author has shown how properties of sets of parameters in fluence properties of accessibility relations and given interesting results.In this paper,some further algebraic properties of relative accessibility are discussed.We also give a necessary and sufficient condition,under which the set of accessibility relations({R (p)}pPAR forms a lattice by means of usual set operations.

  15. On Relative Accessibility Depending on a Set of Parameters

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张明义

    1989-01-01

    Ewa Orlowska presented a class of relations-accessibility relatios determined by a set of parameters. These parameters are a formal counterpart of properties or characteristies of states which are associated by meaas of accessibility relation The author bas showu how properties of sets of parameters influence properties of accessibility relations and give in teresting results. In this paper, some fiurther algebraic properties of relative accessibility are diseussed. We also give a necessary and snfticient condition, under which the set of accessibility relations {R(P)} p包含于PAR forms a lattice by means of usual set operations.

  16. Analysis of Modeling Parameters on Threaded Screws.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vigil, Miquela S. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brake, Matthew Robert [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Vangoethem, Douglas [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-06-01

    Assembled mechanical systems often contain a large number of bolted connections. These bolted connections (joints) are integral aspects of the load path for structural dynamics, and, consequently, are paramount for calculating a structure's stiffness and energy dissipation prop- erties. However, analysts have not found the optimal method to model appropriately these bolted joints. The complexity of the screw geometry cause issues when generating a mesh of the model. This paper will explore different approaches to model a screw-substrate connec- tion. Model parameters such as mesh continuity, node alignment, wedge angles, and thread to body element size ratios are examined. The results of this study will give analysts a better understanding of the influences of these parameters and will aide in finding the optimal method to model bolted connections.

  17. NWP model forecast skill optimization via closure parameter variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Järvinen, H.; Ollinaho, P.; Laine, M.; Solonen, A.; Haario, H.

    2012-04-01

    We present results of a novel approach to tune predictive skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. These models contain tunable parameters which appear in parameterizations schemes of sub-grid scale physical processes. The current practice is to specify manually the numerical parameter values, based on expert knowledge. We developed recently a concept and method (QJRMS 2011) for on-line estimation of the NWP model parameters via closure parameter variations. The method called EPPES ("Ensemble prediction and parameter estimation system") utilizes ensemble prediction infra-structure for parameter estimation in a very cost-effective way: practically no new computations are introduced. The approach provides an algorithmic decision making tool for model parameter optimization in operational NWP. In EPPES, statistical inference about the NWP model tunable parameters is made by (i) generating an ensemble of predictions so that each member uses different model parameter values, drawn from a proposal distribution, and (ii) feeding-back the relative merits of the parameter values to the proposal distribution, based on evaluation of a suitable likelihood function against verifying observations. In this presentation, the method is first illustrated in low-order numerical tests using a stochastic version of the Lorenz-95 model which effectively emulates the principal features of ensemble prediction systems. The EPPES method correctly detects the unknown and wrongly specified parameters values, and leads to an improved forecast skill. Second, results with an ensemble prediction system emulator, based on the ECHAM5 atmospheric GCM show that the model tuning capability of EPPES scales up to realistic models and ensemble prediction systems. Finally, preliminary results of EPPES in the context of ECMWF forecasting system are presented.

  18. A Bigraph Relational Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beauquier, Maxime; Schürmann, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we present a model based on relations for bigraphical reactive system [Milner09]. Its defining characteristics are that validity and reaction relations are captured as traces in a multi-set rewriting system. The relational model is derived from Milner's graphical definition...

  19. The Lund Model at Nonzero Impact Parameter

    CERN Document Server

    Janik, R A; Janik, Romuald A.; Peschanski, Robi

    2003-01-01

    We extend the formulation of the longitudinal 1+1 dimensional Lund model to nonzero impact parameter using the minimal area assumption. Complete formulae for the string breaking probability and the momenta of the produced mesons are derived using the string worldsheet Minkowskian helicoid geometry. For strings stretched into the transverse dimension, we find probability distribution with slope linear in m_T similar to the statistical models but without any thermalization assumptions.

  20. IMPROVEMENT OF FLUID PIPE LUMPED PARAMETER MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Kong Xiaowu; Wei Jianhua; Qiu Minxiu; Wu Genmao

    2004-01-01

    The traditional lumped parameter model of fluid pipe is introduced and its drawbacks are pointed out.Furthermore, two suggestions are put forward to remove these drawbacks.Firstly, the structure of equivalent circuit is modified, and then the evaluation of equivalent fluid resistance is change to take the frequency-dependent friction into account.Both simulation and experiment prove that this model is precise to characterize the dynamic behaviors of fluid in pipe.

  1. Towards predictive food process models: A protocol for parameter estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilas, Carlos; Arias-Méndez, Ana; Garcia, Miriam R; Alonso, Antonio A; Balsa-Canto, E

    2016-05-31

    Mathematical models, in particular, physics-based models, are essential tools to food product and process design, optimization and control. The success of mathematical models relies on their predictive capabilities. However, describing physical, chemical and biological changes in food processing requires the values of some, typically unknown, parameters. Therefore, parameter estimation from experimental data is critical to achieving desired model predictive properties. This work takes a new look into the parameter estimation (or identification) problem in food process modeling. First, we examine common pitfalls such as lack of identifiability and multimodality. Second, we present the theoretical background of a parameter identification protocol intended to deal with those challenges. And, to finish, we illustrate the performance of the proposed protocol with an example related to the thermal processing of packaged foods.

  2. Identification of hydrological model parameter variation using ensemble Kalman filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Chao; Liu, Pan; Guo, Shenglian; Li, Zejun; Wang, Dingbao

    2016-12-01

    Hydrological model parameters play an important role in the ability of model prediction. In a stationary context, parameters of hydrological models are treated as constants; however, model parameters may vary with time under climate change and anthropogenic activities. The technique of ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is proposed to identify the temporal variation of parameters for a two-parameter monthly water balance model (TWBM) by assimilating the runoff observations. Through a synthetic experiment, the proposed method is evaluated with time-invariant (i.e., constant) parameters and different types of parameter variations, including trend, abrupt change and periodicity. Various levels of observation uncertainty are designed to examine the performance of the EnKF. The results show that the EnKF can successfully capture the temporal variations of the model parameters. The application to the Wudinghe basin shows that the water storage capacity (SC) of the TWBM model has an apparent increasing trend during the period from 1958 to 2000. The identified temporal variation of SC is explained by land use and land cover changes due to soil and water conservation measures. In contrast, the application to the Tongtianhe basin shows that the estimated SC has no significant variation during the simulation period of 1982-2013, corresponding to the relatively stationary catchment properties. The evapotranspiration parameter (C) has temporal variations while no obvious change patterns exist. The proposed method provides an effective tool for quantifying the temporal variations of the model parameters, thereby improving the accuracy and reliability of model simulations and forecasts.

  3. Consistent Stochastic Modelling of Meteocean Design Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Sterndorff, M. J.

    2000-01-01

    Consistent stochastic models of metocean design parameters and their directional dependencies are essential for reliability assessment of offshore structures. In this paper a stochastic model for the annual maximum values of the significant wave height, and the associated wind velocity, current...... velocity, and water level is presented. The stochastic model includes statistical uncertainty and dependency between the four stochastic variables. Further, a new stochastic model for annual maximum directional significant wave heights is presented. The model includes dependency between the maximum wave...... height from neighboring directional sectors. Numerical examples are presented where the models are calibrated using the Maximum Likelihood method to data from the central part of the North Sea. The calibration of the directional distributions is made such that the stochastic model for the omnidirectional...

  4. Do Lumped-Parameter Models Provide the Correct Geometrical Damping?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars

    This paper concerns the formulation of lumped-parameter models for rigid footings on homogenous or stratified soil. Such models only contain a few degrees of freedom, which makes them ideal for inclusion in aero-elastic codes for wind turbines and other models applied to fast evaluation of struct......This paper concerns the formulation of lumped-parameter models for rigid footings on homogenous or stratified soil. Such models only contain a few degrees of freedom, which makes them ideal for inclusion in aero-elastic codes for wind turbines and other models applied to fast evaluation...... response during excitation and the geometrical damping related to free vibrations of a hexagonal footing. The optimal order of a lumped-parameter model is determined for each degree of freedom, i.e. horizontal and vertical translation as well as torsion and rocking. In particular, the necessity of coupling...... between horizontal sliding and rocking is discussed....

  5. Gravitational Stokes parameters. [for electromagnetic and gravitational radiation in relativity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anile, A. M.; Breuer, R. A.

    1974-01-01

    The electromagnetic and gravitational Stokes parameters are defined in the general theory of relativity. The general-relativistic equation of radiative transfer for polarized radiation is then derived in terms of the Stokes parameters for both high-frequency electromagnetic and gravitational waves. The concept of Stokes parameters is generalized for the most general class of metric theories of gravity, where six (instead of two) independent states of polarization are present.

  6. Simultaneous estimation of parameters in the bivariate Emax model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnusdottir, Bergrun T; Nyquist, Hans

    2015-12-10

    In this paper, we explore inference in multi-response, nonlinear models. By multi-response, we mean models with m > 1 response variables and accordingly m relations. Each parameter/explanatory variable may appear in one or more of the relations. We study a system estimation approach for simultaneous computation and inference of the model and (co)variance parameters. For illustration, we fit a bivariate Emax model to diabetes dose-response data. Further, the bivariate Emax model is used in a simulation study that compares the system estimation approach to equation-by-equation estimation. We conclude that overall, the system estimation approach performs better for the bivariate Emax model when there are dependencies among relations. The stronger the dependencies, the more we gain in precision by using system estimation rather than equation-by-equation estimation.

  7. Testing Linear Models for Ability Parameters in Item Response Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Glas, Cees A.W.; Hendrawan, Irene

    2005-01-01

    Methods for testing hypotheses concerning the regression parameters in linear models for the latent person parameters in item response models are presented. Three tests are outlined: A likelihood ratio test, a Lagrange multiplier test and a Wald test. The tests are derived in a marginal maximum like

  8. Modelling spin Hamiltonian parameters of molecular nanomagnets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Tulika; Rajaraman, Gopalan

    2016-07-12

    Molecular nanomagnets encompass a wide range of coordination complexes possessing several potential applications. A formidable challenge in realizing these potential applications lies in controlling the magnetic properties of these clusters. Microscopic spin Hamiltonian (SH) parameters describe the magnetic properties of these clusters, and viable ways to control these SH parameters are highly desirable. Computational tools play a proactive role in this area, where SH parameters such as isotropic exchange interaction (J), anisotropic exchange interaction (Jx, Jy, Jz), double exchange interaction (B), zero-field splitting parameters (D, E) and g-tensors can be computed reliably using X-ray structures. In this feature article, we have attempted to provide a holistic view of the modelling of these SH parameters of molecular magnets. The determination of J includes various class of molecules, from di- and polynuclear Mn complexes to the {3d-Gd}, {Gd-Gd} and {Gd-2p} class of complexes. The estimation of anisotropic exchange coupling includes the exchange between an isotropic metal ion and an orbitally degenerate 3d/4d/5d metal ion. The double-exchange section contains some illustrative examples of mixed valance systems, and the section on the estimation of zfs parameters covers some mononuclear transition metal complexes possessing very large axial zfs parameters. The section on the computation of g-anisotropy exclusively covers studies on mononuclear Dy(III) and Er(III) single-ion magnets. The examples depicted in this article clearly illustrate that computational tools not only aid in interpreting and rationalizing the observed magnetic properties but possess the potential to predict new generation MNMs.

  9. Relationship between Cole-Cole model parameters and spectral decomposition parameters derived from SIP data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weigand, M.; Kemna, A.

    2016-06-01

    Spectral induced polarization (SIP) data are commonly analysed using phenomenological models. Among these models the Cole-Cole (CC) model is the most popular choice to describe the strength and frequency dependence of distinct polarization peaks in the data. More flexibility regarding the shape of the spectrum is provided by decomposition schemes. Here the spectral response is decomposed into individual responses of a chosen elementary relaxation model, mathematically acting as kernel in the involved integral, based on a broad range of relaxation times. A frequently used kernel function is the Debye model, but also the CC model with some other a priorly specified frequency dispersion (e.g. Warburg model) has been proposed as kernel in the decomposition. The different decomposition approaches in use, also including conductivity and resistivity formulations, pose the question to which degree the integral spectral parameters typically derived from the obtained relaxation time distribution are biased by the approach itself. Based on synthetic SIP data sampled from an ideal CC response, we here investigate how the two most important integral output parameters deviate from the corresponding CC input parameters. We find that the total chargeability may be underestimated by up to 80 per cent and the mean relaxation time may be off by up to three orders of magnitude relative to the original values, depending on the frequency dispersion of the analysed spectrum and the proximity of its peak to the frequency range limits considered in the decomposition. We conclude that a quantitative comparison of SIP parameters across different studies, or the adoption of parameter relationships from other studies, for example when transferring laboratory results to the field, is only possible on the basis of a consistent spectral analysis procedure. This is particularly important when comparing effective CC parameters with spectral parameters derived from decomposition results.

  10. Systematic parameter inference in stochastic mesoscopic modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Lei, Huan; Li, Zhen; Karniadakis, George

    2016-01-01

    We propose a method to efficiently determine the optimal coarse-grained force field in mesoscopic stochastic simulations of Newtonian fluid and polymer melt systems modeled by dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) and energy conserving dissipative particle dynamics (eDPD). The response surfaces of various target properties (viscosity, diffusivity, pressure, etc.) with respect to model parameters are constructed based on the generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansion using simulation results on sampling points (e.g., individual parameter sets). To alleviate the computational cost to evaluate the target properties, we employ the compressive sensing method to compute the coefficients of the dominant gPC terms given the prior knowledge that the coefficients are sparse. The proposed method shows comparable accuracy with the standard probabilistic collocation method (PCM) while it imposes a much weaker restriction on the number of the simulation samples especially for systems with high dimensional parametric space....

  11. SOMBI: Bayesian identification of parameter relations in unstructured cosmological data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, Philipp; Jasche, Jens; Enßlin, Torsten A.

    2016-11-01

    This work describes the implementation and application of a correlation determination method based on self organizing maps and Bayesian inference (SOMBI). SOMBI aims to automatically identify relations between different observed parameters in unstructured cosmological or astrophysical surveys by automatically identifying data clusters in high-dimensional datasets via the self organizing map neural network algorithm. Parameter relations are then revealed by means of a Bayesian inference within respective identified data clusters. Specifically such relations are assumed to be parametrized as a polynomial of unknown order. The Bayesian approach results in a posterior probability distribution function for respective polynomial coefficients. To decide which polynomial order suffices to describe correlation structures in data, we include a method for model selection, the Bayesian information criterion, to the analysis. The performance of the SOMBI algorithm is tested with mock data. As illustration we also provide applications of our method to cosmological data. In particular, we present results of a correlation analysis between galaxy and active galactic nucleus (AGN) properties provided by the SDSS catalog with the cosmic large-scale-structure (LSS). The results indicate that the combined galaxy and LSS dataset indeed is clustered into several sub-samples of data with different average properties (for example different stellar masses or web-type classifications). The majority of data clusters appear to have a similar correlation structure between galaxy properties and the LSS. In particular we revealed a positive and linear dependency between the stellar mass, the absolute magnitude and the color of a galaxy with the corresponding cosmic density field. A remaining subset of data shows inverted correlations, which might be an artifact of non-linear redshift distortions.

  12. Regionalization parameters of conceptual rainfall-runoff model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osuch, M.

    2003-04-01

    Main goal of this study was to develop techniques for the a priori estimation parameters of hydrological model. Conceptual hydrological model CLIRUN was applied to around 50 catchment in Poland. The size of catchments range from 1 000 to 100 000 km2. The model was calibrated for a number of gauged catchments with different catchment characteristics. The parameters of model were related to different climatic and physical catchment characteristics (topography, land use, vegetation and soil type). The relationships were tested by comparing observed and simulated runoff series from the gauged catchment that were not used in the calibration. The model performance using regional parameters was promising for most of the calibration and validation catchments.

  13. Comparing spatial and temporal transferability of hydrological model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patil, Sopan D.; Stieglitz, Marc

    2015-06-01

    Operational use of hydrological models requires the transfer of calibrated parameters either in time (for streamflow forecasting) or space (for prediction at ungauged catchments) or both. Although the effects of spatial and temporal parameter transfer on catchment streamflow predictions have been well studied individually, a direct comparison of these approaches is much less documented. Here, we compare three different schemes of parameter transfer, viz., temporal, spatial, and spatiotemporal, using a spatially lumped hydrological model called EXP-HYDRO at 294 catchments across the continental United States. Results show that the temporal parameter transfer scheme performs best, with lowest decline in prediction performance (median decline of 4.2%) as measured using the Kling-Gupta efficiency metric. More interestingly, negligible difference in prediction performance is observed between the spatial and spatiotemporal parameter transfer schemes (median decline of 12.4% and 13.9% respectively). We further demonstrate that the superiority of temporal parameter transfer scheme is preserved even when: (1) spatial distance between donor and receiver catchments is reduced, or (2) temporal lag between calibration and validation periods is increased. Nonetheless, increase in the temporal lag between calibration and validation periods reduces the overall performance gap between the three parameter transfer schemes. Results suggest that spatiotemporal transfer of hydrological model parameters has the potential to be a viable option for climate change related hydrological studies, as envisioned in the "trading space for time" framework. However, further research is still needed to explore the relationship between spatial and temporal aspects of catchment hydrological variability.

  14. A survey on alliances and related parameters in graphs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henning Fernau

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we show that several graph parameters are known in different areas under completely different names.More specifically, our observations connect signed domination, monopolies, $\\alpha$-domination, $\\alpha$-independence,positive influence domination,and a parameter associated to fast information propagationin networks to parameters related to various notions of global $r$-alliances in graphs.We also propose a new framework, called (global $(D,O$-alliances, not only in order to characterizevarious known variants of alliance and domination parameters, but also to suggest a unifying framework for the study of alliances and domination.Finally, we also give a survey on the mentioned graph parameters, indicating how results transfer due to our observations.

  15. Relation between aftershock parameters and geodetic slip models: Case study of the 2010 Mw8.8 Maule (Chile) and the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku-oki (Japan) earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakharova, Olga; Hainzl, Sebastian; Lange, Dietrich; Enescu, Bogdan

    2016-04-01

    The distribution of local stresses, which represents as well crustal heterogeneity, is the main factor for aftershock triggering. Though neither local stresses nor crustal heterogeneity are known in detail, some information of their distribution is implicitly represented by slip and coupling values on the mainshock fault interface. Taking these two concepts as the main assumptions, we perform a comprehensive analysis of the relation between aftershock characteristics and geodetic measurements on the mainshock fault interface. As a case study we select two megathrust events, the 2010 Mw8.8 Maule (Chile) and the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku-oki (Japan), due to the availability of rich aftershock data as well as of geodetic inversion models. To investigate the dependency between these data sets we firstly estimated the aftershock parameter distribution, using a modified ETAS model, which allows to take into account the mainshock rupture extension. Secondly we calculate the correlation between aftershock parameters and coseismic/postseismic slip and interseismic coupling. We find: (1) aftershocks tend to occur in the areas of high coseismic slip gradient, afterslip and interseismic coupling; (2) aftershock seismic moment is released preferentially in regions of large coseismic slip, coseismic slip gradient and interseismically locked areas; (3) anomalous aftershock parameters occur in the areas of reactivated fault systems. Moreover, we show that modified ETAS model outperforms the classical one in the cases when the mainshock rupture extension cannot be neglected and represented as a point source. One of the main restriction in the presented analysis is related to the large uncertainties of the inversion models, which limit the significance of our results.

  16. Construction of constant-Q viscoelastic model with three parameters

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Cheng-yu; YIN Xing-yao

    2007-01-01

    The popularly used viscoelastic models have some shortcomings in describing relationship between quality factor (Q) and frequency, which is not consistent with the observation data. Based on the theory of viscoelasticity, a new approach to construct constant-Q viscoelastic model in given frequency band with three parameters is developed. The designed model describes the frequency-independence feature of quality factor very well, and the effect of viscoelasticity on seismic wave field can be studied relatively accurate in theory with this model. Furthermore, the number of required parameters in this model has been reduced fewer than that of other constant-Q models, this can simplify the solution of the viscoelastic problems to some extent. At last, the accuracy and application range have been analyzed through numerical tests. The effect of viscoelasticity on wave propagation has been briefly illustrated through the change of frequency spectra and waveform in several different viscoelastic models.

  17. Parameter optimization in S-system models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasconcelos Ana

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The inverse problem of identifying the topology of biological networks from their time series responses is a cornerstone challenge in systems biology. We tackle this challenge here through the parameterization of S-system models. It was previously shown that parameter identification can be performed as an optimization based on the decoupling of the differential S-system equations, which results in a set of algebraic equations. Results A novel parameterization solution is proposed for the identification of S-system models from time series when no information about the network topology is known. The method is based on eigenvector optimization of a matrix formed from multiple regression equations of the linearized decoupled S-system. Furthermore, the algorithm is extended to the optimization of network topologies with constraints on metabolites and fluxes. These constraints rejoin the system in cases where it had been fragmented by decoupling. We demonstrate with synthetic time series why the algorithm can be expected to converge in most cases. Conclusion A procedure was developed that facilitates automated reverse engineering tasks for biological networks using S-systems. The proposed method of eigenvector optimization constitutes an advancement over S-system parameter identification from time series using a recent method called Alternating Regression. The proposed method overcomes convergence issues encountered in alternate regression by identifying nonlinear constraints that restrict the search space to computationally feasible solutions. Because the parameter identification is still performed for each metabolite separately, the modularity and linear time characteristics of the alternating regression method are preserved. Simulation studies illustrate how the proposed algorithm identifies the correct network topology out of a collection of models which all fit the dynamical time series essentially equally well.

  18. Development of Models To Relate Microbiological and Headspace Volatile Parameters in Stored Atlantic Salmon to Acceptance and Willingness To Prepare the Product by Senior Consumers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, Marilyn C; Ma, Li M; Doyle, Michael P

    2015-12-01

    Microbial spoilage of salmon occurs during extended refrigerated storage and is often accompanied by unpleasant aromas. When spoilage is detected, it is assumed that consumers will reject the product for consumption. Because sensory panels of trained individuals or consumers are expensive and labor intensive, identification of microbiological or chemical indicators to characterize the extent to which fish has spoiled is needed when experimental process and storage treatments are being evaluated. A consumer panel of 53 senior citizens (60 to 85 years of age) evaluated in duplicate raw salmon subjected to 10 storage conditions, and the fish quality was targeted to range from fresh to very spoiled. This population group was chosen because they would be expected to have a greater prevalence of olfactory impairments and higher odor thresholds than the general population; in turn, a shorter safety margin or time period between product rejection due to spoilage and the generation of Clostridium botulinum toxins would be likely. Low hedonic scores for aroma and overall acceptance (2 or 3 of 9), corresponding to "dislike very much" to "dislike moderately," did not equate with unwillingness to prepare the sample for consumption by up to seven panelists (13%) when the product was presumed to have already been purchased. Despite these outliers, significant models (P = 0.0000) were developed for the willingness of consumers to prepare the sample for consumption and the sample's aerobic and anaerobic microbiological populations and two volatile peaks with Kovats indices of 640 and 753. However, these models revealed that the levels of microbiological and chemical markers must be very high before some consumers would reject the sample; hence, spoilage detection by smell would likely not be an adequate safeguard against consuming salmon in which C. botulinum toxin had been generated.

  19. Modeling of Parameters of Subcritical Assembly SAD

    CERN Document Server

    Petrochenkov, S; Puzynin, I

    2005-01-01

    The accepted conceptual design of the experimental Subcritical Assembly in Dubna (SAD) is based on the MOX core with a nominal unit capacity of 25 kW (thermal). This corresponds to the multiplication coefficient $k_{\\rm eff} =0.95$ and accelerator beam power 1 kW. A subcritical assembly driven with the existing 660 MeV proton accelerator at the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research has been modelled in order to make choice of the optimal parameters for the future experiments. The Monte Carlo method was used to simulate neutron spectra, energy deposition and doses calculations. Some of the calculation results are presented in the paper.

  20. A software for parameter estimation in dynamic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Yuceer

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available A common problem in dynamic systems is to determine parameters in an equation used to represent experimental data. The goal is to determine the values of model parameters that provide the best fit to measured data, generally based on some type of least squares or maximum likelihood criterion. In the most general case, this requires the solution of a nonlinear and frequently non-convex optimization problem. Some of the available software lack in generality, while others do not provide ease of use. A user-interactive parameter estimation software was needed for identifying kinetic parameters. In this work we developed an integration based optimization approach to provide a solution to such problems. For easy implementation of the technique, a parameter estimation software (PARES has been developed in MATLAB environment. When tested with extensive example problems from literature, the suggested approach is proven to provide good agreement between predicted and observed data within relatively less computing time and iterations.

  1. Parameter and Uncertainty Estimation in Groundwater Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jacob Birk

    The data basis on which groundwater models are constructed is in general very incomplete, and this leads to uncertainty in model outcome. Groundwater models form the basis for many, often costly decisions and if these are to be made on solid grounds, the uncertainty attached to model results must...... be quantified. This study was motivated by the need to estimate the uncertainty involved in groundwater models.Chapter 2 presents an integrated surface/subsurface unstructured finite difference model that was developed and applied to a synthetic case study.The following two chapters concern calibration...... and uncertainty estimation. Essential issues relating to calibration are discussed. The classical regression methods are described; however, the main focus is on the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. The next two chapters describe case studies in which the GLUE methodology...

  2. Unscented Kalman filter with parameter identifiability analysis for the estimation of multiple parameters in kinetic models

    OpenAIRE

    Baker Syed; Poskar C; Junker Björn

    2011-01-01

    Abstract In systems biology, experimentally measured parameters are not always available, necessitating the use of computationally based parameter estimation. In order to rely on estimated parameters, it is critical to first determine which parameters can be estimated for a given model and measurement set. This is done with parameter identifiability analysis. A kinetic model of the sucrose accumulation in the sugar cane culm tissue developed by Rohwer et al. was taken as a test case model. Wh...

  3. GIS-Based Hydrogeological-Parameter Modeling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    A regression model is proposed to relate the variation of water well depth with topographic properties (area and slope), the variation of hydraulic conductivity and vertical decay factor. The implementation of this model in GIS environment (ARC/TNFO) based on known water data and DEM is used to estimate the variation of hydraulic conductivity and decay factor of different lithoiogy units in watershed context.

  4. Moose models with vanishing $S$ parameter

    CERN Document Server

    Casalbuoni, R; Dominici, Daniele

    2004-01-01

    In the linear moose framework, which naturally emerges in deconstruction models, we show that there is a unique solution for the vanishing of the $S$ parameter at the lowest order in the weak interactions. We consider an effective gauge theory based on $K$ SU(2) gauge groups, $K+1$ chiral fields and electroweak groups $SU(2)_L$ and $U(1)_Y$ at the ends of the chain of the moose. $S$ vanishes when a link in the moose chain is cut. As a consequence one has to introduce a dynamical non local field connecting the two ends of the moose. Then the model acquires an additional custodial symmetry which protects this result. We examine also the possibility of a strong suppression of $S$ through an exponential behavior of the link couplings as suggested by Randall Sundrum metric.

  5. Model parameters for simulation of physiological lipids

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGlinchey, Nicholas

    2016-01-01

    Coarse grain simulation of proteins in their physiological membrane environment can offer insight across timescales, but requires a comprehensive force field. Parameters are explored for multicomponent bilayers composed of unsaturated lipids DOPC and DOPE, mixed‐chain saturation POPC and POPE, and anionic lipids found in bacteria: POPG and cardiolipin. A nonbond representation obtained from multiscale force matching is adapted for these lipids and combined with an improved bonding description of cholesterol. Equilibrating the area per lipid yields robust bilayer simulations and properties for common lipid mixtures with the exception of pure DOPE, which has a known tendency to form nonlamellar phase. The models maintain consistency with an existing lipid–protein interaction model, making the force field of general utility for studying membrane proteins in physiologically representative bilayers. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Computational Chemistry Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:26864972

  6. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Wasiolek

    2004-09-10

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment for the license application (TSPA-LA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA-LA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) (TWP). This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA). This report is one of the five reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model and the mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed description of the model input parameters. The output of this report is used as direct input in the ''Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' and in the ''Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios, respectively. The purpose of this analysis was to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or in volcanic ash). The analysis

  7. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-09-10

    This analysis is one of 10 reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception.

  8. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-06-27

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2003 [163602]). Some documents in Figure 1-1 may be under development and not available when this report is issued. This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA), but access to the listed documents is not required to understand the contents of this report. This report is one of the reports that develops input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes the conceptual model, the mathematical model, and the input parameters. The purpose of this analysis is to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2003 [163602]). This analysis develops values of parameters associated with many features, events, and processes (FEPs) applicable to the reference biosphere (DTN: M00303SEPFEPS2.000 [162452]), which are addressed in the biosphere model (BSC 2003 [160699]). The treatment of these FEPs is described in BSC (2003 [160699

  9. Complexity, parameter sensitivity and parameter transferability in the modelling of floodplain inundation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, P. D.; Neal, J. C.; Fewtrell, T. J.

    2012-12-01

    In this we paper we consider two related questions. First, we address the issue of how much physical complexity is necessary in a model in order to simulate floodplain inundation to within validation data error. This is achieved through development of a single code/multiple physics hydraulic model (LISFLOOD-FP) where different degrees of complexity can be switched on or off. Different configurations of this code are applied to four benchmark test cases, and compared to the results of a number of industry standard models. Second we address the issue of how parameter sensitivity and transferability change with increasing complexity using numerical experiments with models of different physical and geometric intricacy. Hydraulic models are a good example system with which to address such generic modelling questions as: (1) they have a strong physical basis; (2) there is only one set of equations to solve; (3) they require only topography and boundary conditions as input data; and (4) they typically require only a single free parameter, namely boundary friction. In terms of complexity required we show that for the problem of sub-critical floodplain inundation a number of codes of different dimensionality and resolution can be found to fit uncertain model validation data equally well, and that in this situation Occam's razor emerges as a useful logic to guide model selection. We find also find that model skill usually improves more rapidly with increases in model spatial resolution than increases in physical complexity, and that standard approaches to testing hydraulic models against laboratory data or analytical solutions may fail to identify this important fact. Lastly, we find that in benchmark testing studies significant differences can exist between codes with identical numerical solution techniques as a result of auxiliary choices regarding the specifics of model implementation that are frequently unreported by code developers. As a consequence, making sound

  10. Relations between source parameters for large Persian earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Majid Nemati

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Empirical relationships for magnitude scales and fault parameters were produced using 436 Iranian intraplate earthquakes of recently regional databases since the continental events represent a large portion of total seismicity of Iran. The relations between different source parameters of the earthquakes were derived using input information which has usefully been provided from the databases after 1900. Suggested equations for magnitude scales relate the body-wave, surface-wave as well as local magnitude scales to scalar moment of the earthquakes. Also, dependence of source parameters as surface and subsurface rupture length and maximum surface displacement on the moment magnitude for some well documented earthquakes was investigated. For meeting this aim, ordinary linear regression procedures were employed for all relations. Our evaluations reveal a fair agreement between obtained relations and equations described in other worldwide and regional works in literature. The M0-mb and M0-MS equations are correlated well to the worldwide relations. Also, both M0-MS and M0-ML relations have a good agreement with regional studies in Taiwan. The equations derived from this study mainly confirm the results of the global investigations about rupture length of historical and instrumental events. However, some relations like MW-MN and MN-ML which are remarkably unlike to available regional works (e.g., American and Canadian were also found.

  11. Modelling dense relational data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herlau, Tue; Mørup, Morten; Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard;

    2012-01-01

    Relational modelling classically consider sparse and discrete data. Measures of influence computed pairwise between temporal sources naturally give rise to dense continuous-valued matrices, for instance p-values from Granger causality. Due to asymmetry or lack of positive definiteness they are no......Relational modelling classically consider sparse and discrete data. Measures of influence computed pairwise between temporal sources naturally give rise to dense continuous-valued matrices, for instance p-values from Granger causality. Due to asymmetry or lack of positive definiteness...... they are not naturally suited for kernel K-means. We propose a generative Bayesian model for dense matrices which generalize kernel K-means to consider off-diagonal interactions in matrices of interactions, and demonstrate its ability to detect structure on both artificial data and two real data sets....

  12. Uncertainty Quantification for Optical Model Parameters

    CERN Document Server

    Lovell, A E; Sarich, J; Wild, S M

    2016-01-01

    Although uncertainty quantification has been making its way into nuclear theory, these methods have yet to be explored in the context of reaction theory. For example, it is well known that different parameterizations of the optical potential can result in different cross sections, but these differences have not been systematically studied and quantified. The purpose of this work is to investigate the uncertainties in nuclear reactions that result from fitting a given model to elastic-scattering data, as well as to study how these uncertainties propagate to the inelastic and transfer channels. We use statistical methods to determine a best fit and create corresponding 95\\% confidence bands. A simple model of the process is fit to elastic-scattering data and used to predict either inelastic or transfer cross sections. In this initial work, we assume that our model is correct, and the only uncertainties come from the variation of the fit parameters. We study a number of reactions involving neutron and deuteron p...

  13. Numerical modeling of partial discharges parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kartalović Nenad M.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent testing of the partial discharges or the use for the diagnosis of insulation condition of high voltage generators, transformers, cables and high voltage equipment develops rapidly. It is a result of the development of electronics, as well as, the development of knowledge about the processes of partial discharges. The aim of this paper is to contribute the better understanding of this phenomenon of partial discharges by consideration of the relevant physical processes in isolation materials and isolation systems. Prebreakdown considers specific processes, and development processes at the local level and their impact on specific isolation material. This approach to the phenomenon of partial discharges needed to allow better take into account relevant discharge parameters as well as better numerical model of partial discharges.

  14. CHAMP: Changepoint Detection Using Approximate Model Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    positions as a Markov chain in which the transition probabilities are defined by the time since the last changepoint: p(τi+1 = t|τi = s) = g(t− s), (1...experimentally verified using artifi- cially generated data and are compared to those of Fearnhead and Liu [5]. 2 Related work Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are...length α, and maximum number of particles M . Output: Viterbi path of changepoint times and models // Initialize data structures 1: max path, prev queue

  15. Relative risk regression models with inverse polynomials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ning, Yang; Woodward, Mark

    2013-08-30

    The proportional hazards model assumes that the log hazard ratio is a linear function of parameters. In the current paper, we model the log relative risk as an inverse polynomial, which is particularly suitable for modeling bounded and asymmetric functions. The parameters estimated by maximizing the partial likelihood are consistent and asymptotically normal. The advantages of the inverse polynomial model over the ordinary polynomial model and the fractional polynomial model for fitting various asymmetric log relative risk functions are shown by simulation. The utility of the method is further supported by analyzing two real data sets, addressing the specific question of the location of the minimum risk threshold.

  16. Modelling of intermittent microwave convective drying: parameter sensitivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Zhijun

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The reliability of the predictions of a mathematical model is a prerequisite to its utilization. A multiphase porous media model of intermittent microwave convective drying is developed based on the literature. The model considers the liquid water, gas and solid matrix inside of food. The model is simulated by COMSOL software. Its sensitivity parameter is analysed by changing the parameter values by ±20%, with the exception of several parameters. The sensitivity analysis of the process of the microwave power level shows that each parameter: ambient temperature, effective gas diffusivity, and evaporation rate constant, has significant effects on the process. However, the surface mass, heat transfer coefficient, relative and intrinsic permeability of the gas, and capillary diffusivity of water do not have a considerable effect. The evaporation rate constant has minimal parameter sensitivity with a ±20% value change, until it is changed 10-fold. In all results, the temperature and vapour pressure curves show the same trends as the moisture content curve. However, the water saturation at the medium surface and in the centre show different results. Vapour transfer is the major mass transfer phenomenon that affects the drying process.

  17. Modelling of intermittent microwave convective drying: parameter sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhijun; Qin, Wenchao; Shi, Bin; Gao, Jingxin; Zhang, Shiwei

    2017-06-01

    The reliability of the predictions of a mathematical model is a prerequisite to its utilization. A multiphase porous media model of intermittent microwave convective drying is developed based on the literature. The model considers the liquid water, gas and solid matrix inside of food. The model is simulated by COMSOL software. Its sensitivity parameter is analysed by changing the parameter values by ±20%, with the exception of several parameters. The sensitivity analysis of the process of the microwave power level shows that each parameter: ambient temperature, effective gas diffusivity, and evaporation rate constant, has significant effects on the process. However, the surface mass, heat transfer coefficient, relative and intrinsic permeability of the gas, and capillary diffusivity of water do not have a considerable effect. The evaporation rate constant has minimal parameter sensitivity with a ±20% value change, until it is changed 10-fold. In all results, the temperature and vapour pressure curves show the same trends as the moisture content curve. However, the water saturation at the medium surface and in the centre show different results. Vapour transfer is the major mass transfer phenomenon that affects the drying process.

  18. Comparing spatial and temporal transferability of hydrological model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patil, Sopan; Stieglitz, Marc

    2015-04-01

    Operational use of hydrological models requires the transfer of calibrated parameters either in time (for streamflow forecasting) or space (for prediction at ungauged catchments) or both. Although the effects of spatial and temporal parameter transfer on catchment streamflow predictions have been well studied individually, a direct comparison of these approaches is much less documented. In our view, such comparison is especially pertinent in the context of increasing appeal and popularity of the "trading space for time" approaches that are proposed for assessing the hydrological implications of anthropogenic climate change. Here, we compare three different schemes of parameter transfer, viz., temporal, spatial, and spatiotemporal, using a spatially lumped hydrological model called EXP-HYDRO at 294 catchments across the continental United States. Results show that the temporal parameter transfer scheme performs best, with lowest decline in prediction performance (median decline of 4.2%) as measured using the Kling-Gupta efficiency metric. More interestingly, negligible difference in prediction performance is observed between the spatial and spatiotemporal parameter transfer schemes (median decline of 12.4% and 13.9% respectively). We further demonstrate that the superiority of temporal parameter transfer scheme is preserved even when: (1) spatial distance between donor and receiver catchments is reduced, or (2) temporal lag between calibration and validation periods is increased. Nonetheless, increase in the temporal lag between calibration and validation periods reduces the overall performance gap between the three parameter transfer schemes. Results suggest that spatiotemporal transfer of hydrological model parameters has the potential to be a viable option for climate change related hydrological studies, as envisioned in the "trading space for time" framework. However, further research is still needed to explore the relationship between spatial and temporal

  19. [Diagnostic value of quantitative pharmacokinetic parameters and relative quantitative pharmacokinetic parameters in breast lesions with dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, T T; Liu, W H; Zhang, Y Q; Li, L H; Wang, R; Ye, Y Y

    2017-08-01

    Objective: To explore the differential between the value of dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI quantitative pharmacokinetic parameters and relative pharmacokinetic quantitative parameters in breast lesions. Methods: Retrospective analysis of 255 patients(262 breast lesions) who was obtained by clinical palpation , ultrasound or full-field digital mammography , and then all lessions were pathologically confirmed in Zhongda Hospital, Southeast University from May 2012 to May 2016. A 3.0 T MRI scanner was used to obtain the quantitative MR pharmacokinetic parameters: volume transfer constant (K(trans)), exchange rate constant (k(ep))and extravascular extracellular volume fraction (V(e)). And measured the quantitative pharmacokinetic parameters of normal glands tissues which on the same side of the same level of the lesions; and then calculated the value of relative pharmacokinetic parameters: rK(rans)、rk(ep) and rV(e).To explore the diagnostic value of two pharmacokinetic parameters in differential diagnosis of benign and malignant breast lesions using receiver operating curves and model of logistic regression. Results: (1)There were significant differences between benign lesions and malignant lesions in K(trans) and k(ep) (t=15.489, 15.022, respectively, P0.05). The areas under the ROC curve(AUC)of K(trans), k(ep) and V(e) between malignant and benign lesions were 0.933, 0.948 and 0.387, the sensitivity of K(trans), k(ep) and V(e) were 77.1%, 85.0%, 51.0% , and the specificity of K(trans), k(ep) and V(e) were 96.3%, 93.6%, 60.8% for the differential diagnosis of breast lesions if taken the maximum Youden's index as cut-off. (2)There were significant differences between benign lesions and malignant lesions in rK(trans), rk(ep) and rV(e) (t=14.177, 11.726, 2.477, respectively, Pquantitative pharmacokinetic parameters and the prediction probability of relative quantitative pharmacokinetic parameters(Z=0.867, P=0.195). Conclusion: There was no significant difference between

  20. Parameter Optimisation for the Behaviour of Elastic Models over Time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mosegaard, Jesper

    2004-01-01

    Optimisation of parameters for elastic models is essential for comparison or finding equivalent behaviour of elastic models when parameters cannot simply be transferred or converted. This is the case with a large range of commonly used elastic models. In this paper we present a general method...... that will optimise parameters based on the behaviour of the elastic models over time....

  1. Model Identification of Linear Parameter Varying Aircraft Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Fujimore, Atsushi; Ljung, Lennart

    2007-01-01

    This article presents a parameter estimation of continuous-time polytopic models for a linear parameter varying (LPV) system. The prediction error method of linear time invariant (LTI) models is modified for polytopic models. The modified prediction error method is applied to an LPV aircraft system whose varying parameter is the flight velocity and model parameters are the stability and control derivatives (SCDs). In an identification simulation, the polytopic model is more suitable for expre...

  2. SPOTting model parameters using a ready-made Python package

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houska, Tobias; Kraft, Philipp; Breuer, Lutz

    2015-04-01

    The selection and parameterization of reliable process descriptions in ecological modelling is driven by several uncertainties. The procedure is highly dependent on various criteria, like the used algorithm, the likelihood function selected and the definition of the prior parameter distributions. A wide variety of tools have been developed in the past decades to optimize parameters. Some of the tools are closed source. Due to this, the choice for a specific parameter estimation method is sometimes more dependent on its availability than the performance. A toolbox with a large set of methods can support users in deciding about the most suitable method. Further, it enables to test and compare different methods. We developed the SPOT (Statistical Parameter Optimization Tool), an open source python package containing a comprehensive set of modules, to analyze and optimize parameters of (environmental) models. SPOT comes along with a selected set of algorithms for parameter optimization and uncertainty analyses (Monte Carlo, MC; Latin Hypercube Sampling, LHS; Maximum Likelihood, MLE; Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC; Scuffled Complex Evolution, SCE-UA; Differential Evolution Markov Chain, DE-MCZ), together with several likelihood functions (Bias, (log-) Nash-Sutcliff model efficiency, Correlation Coefficient, Coefficient of Determination, Covariance, (Decomposed-, Relative-, Root-) Mean Squared Error, Mean Absolute Error, Agreement Index) and prior distributions (Binomial, Chi-Square, Dirichlet, Exponential, Laplace, (log-, multivariate-) Normal, Pareto, Poisson, Cauchy, Uniform, Weibull) to sample from. The model-independent structure makes it suitable to analyze a wide range of applications. We apply all algorithms of the SPOT package in three different case studies. Firstly, we investigate the response of the Rosenbrock function, where the MLE algorithm shows its strengths. Secondly, we study the Griewank function, which has a challenging response surface for

  3. Decay parameter and related properties of 2-type branching processes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI JunPing

    2009-01-01

    We consider the decay parameter, invariant measures/vectors and quasi-stationary dis-tributions for 2-type Markov branching processes. Investigating such properties is crucial in realizing life period of branching models. In this paper, some important properties of the generating functions for 2-type Markov branching q-matrix are firstly investigated in detail. The exact value of the decay parameter λC of such model is given for the communicating class C = Z+2\\ 0. It is shown that this λC can be directly obtained from the generating functions of the corresponding q-matrix. Moreover, the λC-invariant measures/vectors and quasi-distributions of such processes are deeply considered. A λC-invariant vector for the q-matrix (or for the process) on C is given and the generating functions of λC-invariant measures and quasi-stationary distributions for the process on C are presented.

  4. Decay parameter and related properties of 2-type branching processes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    We consider the decay parameter, invariant measures/vectors and quasi-stationary dis- tributions for 2-type Markov branching processes. Investigating such properties is crucial in realizing life period of branching models. In this paper, some important properties of the generating functions for 2-type Markov branching q-matrix are firstly investigated in detail. The exact value of the decay parameter λC of such model is given for the communicating class C = Z+2 \\ 0. It is shown that this λC can be directly obtained from the generating functions of the corresponding q-matrix. Moreover, the λC-invariant measures/vectors and quasi-distributions of such processes are deeply considered. A λC-invariant vector for the q-matrix (or for the process) on C is given and the generating functions of λC-invariant measures and quasi-stationary distributions for the process on C are presented.

  5. [Calculation of parameters in forest evapotranspiration model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Anzhi; Pei, Tiefan

    2003-12-01

    Forest evapotranspiration is an important component not only in water balance, but also in energy balance. It is a great demand for the development of forest hydrology and forest meteorology to simulate the forest evapotranspiration accurately, which is also a theoretical basis for the management and utilization of water resources and forest ecosystem. Taking the broadleaved Korean pine forest on Changbai Mountain as an example, this paper constructed a mechanism model for estimating forest evapotranspiration, based on the aerodynamic principle and energy balance equation. Using the data measured by the Routine Meteorological Measurement System and Open-Path Eddy Covariance Measurement System mounted on the tower in the broadleaved Korean pine forest, the parameters displacement height d, stability functions for momentum phi m, and stability functions for heat phi h were ascertained. The displacement height of the study site was equal to 17.8 m, near to the mean canopy height, and the functions of phi m and phi h changing with gradient Richarson number R i were constructed.

  6. Modelling Biophysical Parameters of Maize Using Landsat 8 Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahms, Thorsten; Seissiger, Sylvia; Conrad, Christopher; Borg, Erik

    2016-06-01

    Open and free access to multi-frequent high-resolution data (e.g. Sentinel - 2) will fortify agricultural applications based on satellite data. The temporal and spatial resolution of these remote sensing datasets directly affects the applicability of remote sensing methods, for instance a robust retrieving of biophysical parameters over the entire growing season with very high geometric resolution. In this study we use machine learning methods to predict biophysical parameters, namely the fraction of absorbed photosynthetic radiation (FPAR), the leaf area index (LAI) and the chlorophyll content, from high resolution remote sensing. 30 Landsat 8 OLI scenes were available in our study region in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Germany. In-situ data were weekly to bi-weekly collected on 18 maize plots throughout the summer season 2015. The study aims at an optimized prediction of biophysical parameters and the identification of the best explaining spectral bands and vegetation indices. For this purpose, we used the entire in-situ dataset from 24.03.2015 to 15.10.2015. Random forest and conditional inference forests were used because of their explicit strong exploratory and predictive character. Variable importance measures allowed for analysing the relation between the biophysical parameters with respect to the spectral response, and the performance of the two approaches over the plant stock evolvement. Classical random forest regression outreached the performance of conditional inference forests, in particular when modelling the biophysical parameters over the entire growing period. For example, modelling biophysical parameters of maize for the entire vegetation period using random forests yielded: FPAR: R² = 0.85; RMSE = 0.11; LAI: R² = 0.64; RMSE = 0.9 and chlorophyll content (SPAD): R² = 0.80; RMSE=4.9. Our results demonstrate the great potential in using machine-learning methods for the interpretation of long-term multi-frequent remote sensing datasets to model

  7. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Wasiolek

    2006-06-05

    This analysis is one of the technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), referred to in this report as the biosphere model. ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'' is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the biosphere model is presented in Figure 1-1 (based on BSC 2006 [DIRS 176938]). This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This analysis report defines and justifies values of atmospheric mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of the biosphere model to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception. This

  8. Number of endemic and native plant species in the Galapagos Archipelago in relation to geographical parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willerslev, E.; Hansen, Anders J.; Nielsen, K. K.

    2002-01-01

    By simple and multiple regression analyses we investigate updated species numbers of endemic and native vascular plants and seed plants in the Galapagos Archipelago in relation to geographical parameters. We find that the best models to describe species numbers are regression models with log...... explained variation is in general small. The results show that the species area relationships are different for native and endemic species. This is discussed in relation to classical island biogeographical models, and the concepts of radiative speciation. Udgivelsesdato: 2002...

  9. Assessing models for parameters of the Ångström-Prescott formula in China

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Xiaoying; Xu, Yinlong; Zhong, Xiuli

    2012-01-01

    Application of the Ångström–Prescott (A–P) model, one of the best rated global solar irradiation (Rs) models based on sunshine, is often limited by the lack of model parameters. Increasing the availability of its parameters in the absence of Rs measurement provides an effective way to overcome...... this problem. Although some models relating the A–P parameters to other variables have been developed, they generally lack worldwide validity test. Using data from 80 sites covering three agro-climatic zones in China, we evaluated seven models that relate the parameters to annual average of relative sunshine...

  10. Transfer function modeling of damping mechanisms in distributed parameter models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slater, J. C.; Inman, D. J.

    1994-01-01

    This work formulates a method for the modeling of material damping characteristics in distributed parameter models which may be easily applied to models such as rod, plate, and beam equations. The general linear boundary value vibration equation is modified to incorporate hysteresis effects represented by complex stiffness using the transfer function approach proposed by Golla and Hughes. The governing characteristic equations are decoupled through separation of variables yielding solutions similar to those of undamped classical theory, allowing solution of the steady state as well as transient response. Example problems and solutions are provided demonstrating the similarity of the solutions to those of the classical theories and transient responses of nonviscous systems.

  11. Relation between the morphometric parameters of Thymus and fetal weight.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmen Niurka Piña Loyola

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: When we are born, thymus weighs about 10 or 13 g. This organ can develop as a result of the interaction among various factors that have been classified as physiological and pathological. Some studies to establish morphological patterns of this organ have reported dissimilar results. Objective: To determine morphometric parameters of thymus and it relation with fetus weight in Cienfuegos province between the years 2003-2008. Methods: A correlational, descriptive, observational study was carried out in the period between May, 2003 and May 2008. We took a sample of thymus of 147 cases of fetal death, out of a total of 151 cases, from the 17th gestational week to the end of the gestation period. Besides, we carried out measurements of this organ such as weight, height, width, thickness and volume whose variability was analyzed in relation with fetal weight. Results: There was correspondence between the gestational age and fetal weight. The morphometric parameter of thymus augmented in relation with fetal weight, being significant for fetal weights over 1500 g, where the morphologic variables of thymus reached values two fold those of the previous range. Conclusions: The more the fetus stays in the uterus the greater is its morphological and organic development, which is related with the inherent characteristics of intrauterine development for fetal period.

  12. On the modeling of internal parameters in hyperelastic biological materials

    CERN Document Server

    Giantesio, Giulia

    2016-01-01

    This paper concerns the behavior of hyperelastic energies depending on an internal parameter. First, the situation in which the internal parameter is a function of the gradient of the deformation is presented. Second, two models where the parameter describes the activation of skeletal muscle tissue are analyzed. In those models, the activation parameter depends on the strain and it is important to consider the derivative of the parameter with respect to the strain in order to capture the proper behavior of the stress.

  13. Robust linear parameter varying induction motor control with polytopic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dalila Khamari

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with a robust controller for an induction motor which is represented as a linear parameter varying systems. To do so linear matrix inequality (LMI based approach and robust Lyapunov feedback controller are associated. This new approach is related to the fact that the synthesis of a linear parameter varying (LPV feedback controller for the inner loop take into account rotor resistance and mechanical speed as varying parameter. An LPV flux observer is also synthesized to estimate rotor flux providing reference to cited above regulator. The induction motor is described as a polytopic model because of speed and rotor resistance affine dependence their values can be estimated on line during systems operations. The simulation results are presented to confirm the effectiveness of the proposed approach where robustness stability and high performances have been achieved over the entire operating range of the induction motor.

  14. Determining extreme parameter correlation in ground water models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hill, Mary Cole; Østerby, Ole

    2003-01-01

    In ground water flow system models with hydraulic-head observations but without significant imposed or observed flows, extreme parameter correlation generally exists. As a result, hydraulic conductivity and recharge parameters cannot be uniquely estimated. In complicated problems, such correlation...... correlation coefficients, but it required sensitivities that were one to two significant digits less accurate than those that required using parameter correlation coefficients; and (3) both the SVD and parameter correlation coefficients identified extremely correlated parameters better when the parameters...

  15. Number of endemic and native plant species in the Galapagos Archipelago in relation to geographical parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willerslev, Eske; Hansen, Anders J.; Nielsen, Kirstine Klitgaard

    2002-01-01

    By simple and multiple regression analyses we investigate updated species numbers of endemic and native vascular plants and seed plants in the Galapagos Archipelago in relation to geographical parameters. We find that the best models to describe species numbers are regression models with log-tran...

  16. Model comparisons and genetic and environmental parameter ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    arc

    South African Journal of Animal Science 2005, 35 (1) ... Genetic and environmental parameters were estimated for pre- and post-weaning average daily gain ..... and BWT (and medium maternal genetic correlations) indicates that these traits ...

  17. Information Theoretic Tools for Parameter Fitting in Coarse Grained Models

    KAUST Repository

    Kalligiannaki, Evangelia

    2015-01-07

    We study the application of information theoretic tools for model reduction in the case of systems driven by stochastic dynamics out of equilibrium. The model/dimension reduction is considered by proposing parametrized coarse grained dynamics and finding the optimal parameter set for which the relative entropy rate with respect to the atomistic dynamics is minimized. The minimization problem leads to a generalization of the force matching methods to non equilibrium systems. A multiplicative noise example reveals the importance of the diffusion coefficient in the optimization problem.

  18. NEW DOCTORAL DEGREE Parameter estimation problem in the Weibull model

    OpenAIRE

    Marković, Darija

    2009-01-01

    In this dissertation we consider the problem of the existence of best parameters in the Weibull model, one of the most widely used statistical models in reliability theory and life data theory. Particular attention is given to a 3-parameter Weibull model. We have listed some of the many applications of this model. We have described some of the classical methods for estimating parameters of the Weibull model, two graphical methods (Weibull probability plot and hazard plot), and two analyt...

  19. Water Relation Parameters of Embryogenic Cultures and Seedlings of Larch

    Science.gov (United States)

    Livingston, Nigel J.; von Aderkas, Patrick; Fuchs, Edgar E.; Reaney, Martin J. T.

    1992-01-01

    Changes in the water relations parameters of developing somatic embryogenic and xygotic European larch (Larix decidua) were studied. Water release curves were generated by suspending tissue samples over unsaturated NaCl solutions until they reached vapor equilibration with the surrounding air. Twenty solutions were used whose water potentials ranged from −0.05 to −10 MPa. Water release curves were obtained by plotting paired values of tissue relative water content (RWC) and solution potential. Curves were derived for embryonic larch at various stages of development and for hypocotyls and roots from germinated zygotic and somatic embryos. The ability to resist dehydration increased markedly with development. Stage 1 tissue, which consisted of clusters of loosely associated nonchlorophyllous cells, had extremely low bulk elastic modulus (ε) (1.91 MPa) and apoplastic water content (A) (0.023), relatively high osmotic potential (Ψπ) (−0.53 MPa), and lost turgor at 0.56 RWC. In contrast, mature embryoids with primary roots, hypocotyl, and cotyledons (stage 3) had an almost 4-fold increase in A (0.089), significantly higher ε (3.49 MPa), and lower Ψπ (−0.88 MPa) and lost turgor at 0.66 RWC. Hypocotyl tissue from germinated somatic embryos lost turgor at 0.74 RWC and had higher ε, A, and solute accumulation than pregerminated tissue. Hypocotyl tissue resisted dehydration more strongly than root tissue, and differences between root and hypocotyl water relation parameters were more pronounced in xygotic than in somatic seedlings. Highest dehydration resistance was in zygotic hypocotyls. The characterization of the water relations of tissue cultures should allow the development of more consistent and reliable desiccation protocols to induce maturation of embryos and produce synchronously germinating seed. PMID:16653121

  20. Constraining The Hubble Parameter Using Distance Modulus - Redshift Relation

    CERN Document Server

    Onuchukwu, C C

    2015-01-01

    Using the relation between distance modulus (m-M) and redshift (z), deduced from Friedman-Robertson-Walker (FRW) metric and assuming different values of deceleration parameter (q0). We constrained the Hubble parameter (h). The estimates of the Hubble parameters we obtained using the median values of the data obtained from NASA Extragalactic Database (NED), are: h=0.7+/-0.3 for q0=0, h=0.6+/-0.3, for q0=1 and h=0.8+/-0.3, for q0=-1. The corresponding age ({\\tau}) and size (R) of the observable universe were also estimated as: {\\tau}=15+/-1 Gyrs, R=(5+/-2)x10^3 Mpc, {\\tau}=18+/-1 Gyrs, R=(6+/-2)x10^3 Mpc and {\\tau}=13+/-1 Gyrs, R=(4+/-2)x10^3 Mpc for q0=0, q0=1 and q0=-1 respectively.

  1. Parameter optimization model in electrical discharge machining process

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Electrical discharge machining (EDM) process, at present is still an experience process, wherein selected parameters are often far from the optimum, and at the same time selecting optimization parameters is costly and time consuming. In this paper,artificial neural network (ANN) and genetic algorithm (GA) are used together to establish the parameter optimization model. An ANN model which adapts Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm has been set up to represent the relationship between material removal rate (MRR) and input parameters, and GA is used to optimize parameters, so that optimization results are obtained. The model is shown to be effective, and MRR is improved using optimized machining parameters.

  2. Relations of PC indices to further geophysical activity parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stauning, P.

    2012-04-01

    The Polar Cap (PC) indices, PCN for the index values derived from Thule magnetic data and PCS derived from Vostok data, relate to the polar cap ionospheric plasma convection driven mainly by the interaction of the solar wind with the magnetosphere. Thus, the PC indices serve to monitor the input power from the solar wind which drives a range of geophysical disturbances such as magnetic storms and substorms, energization of the plasma trapped in the Earth's near space, auroral activity, and heating of the upper atmosphere. The presentation will demonstrate the relations between the PC indices and further parameters and indices used to describe geophysical activity such as polar cap potentials, auroral electrojet activity, Joule and particle heating of the upper atmosphere, mid-latitude magnetic variations, and ring current indices Dst, SYM-H and ASY-H.

  3. Relative contribution ratio: A quantitative metrics for multi-parameter analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changtong Luo

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In many applications, the objective function is determined by several parameters simultaneously. Properly assessing the relative contribution of each parameter can give the decision maker a better understanding of the problem. However, widely used assessing methods are qualitative or semi-quantitative. In this paper, a new concept, relative contribution ratio (RCR, is proposed. The concept follows the idea of proof by contradiction, and estimates the impact of absence of each parameter, based on the fact that the absence of a parameter with more contribution will bring more divergence. Based on surrogate models, a statistical method for calculating RCR is also presented. Numerical results indicate that RCR is capable of analyzing multi-parameter problems, regardless of whether they are linear or nonlinear.

  4. Estimation of shape model parameters for 3D surfaces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Erbou, Søren Gylling Hemmingsen; Darkner, Sune; Fripp, Jurgen;

    2008-01-01

    Statistical shape models are widely used as a compact way of representing shape variation. Fitting a shape model to unseen data enables characterizing the data in terms of the model parameters. In this paper a Gauss-Newton optimization scheme is proposed to estimate shape model parameters of 3D s...

  5. Compositional modelling of distributed-parameter systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maschke, Bernhard; Schaft, van der Arjan; Lamnabhi-Lagarrigue, F.; Loría, A.; Panteley, E.

    2005-01-01

    The Hamiltonian formulation of distributed-parameter systems has been a challenging reserach area for quite some time. (A nice introduction, especially with respect to systems stemming from fluid dynamics, can be found in [26], where also a historical account is provided.) The identification of the

  6. Relate the earthquake parameters to the maximum tsunami runup

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharghivand, Naeimeh; Kânoǧlu, Utku

    2016-04-01

    Considering the 1 September 1992 Nicaraguan tsunami manifested itself with an initial shoreline recession, there was paradigm shift from solitary wave to an N-wave (Tadepalli and Synolakis, 1994, Proc. R. Soc. A: Math. Phys. Eng. Sci., 445, 99-112) to define the initial waveform of tsunamis (Kanoglu et al., 2015, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 373: 20140369). The N-wave initial waveform shows specific features, which might enhance maximum runup at a target coastline. Tadepalli & Synolakis (1994) showed that the leading depression N-wave (LEN) run up higher than its mirror image, the leading elevation N-wave (LEN). Later, Kanoglu et al. (2013, Proc. R. Soc. A: Math. Phys. Eng. Sci., 469, 20130015) considered two-dimensional propagation of a finite crest length N-wave over a flat bottom and showed that focusing effect of an N-wave in the direction of leading depression, which enhance the runup. Recently, Kanoglu (2016, EGU Abstract)'s preliminary results suggest that later waves could be higher on the leading depression side for an N-wave, i.e., sequencing defined by Okal and Synolakis (2016, Geophys. J. Int. 204, 719-735) is more pronounced on the leading depression side. Here, we consider submarine earthquakes and estimate the initial ocean surface profiles through Okada's formulation (1985, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 75, 1135-1040). We parameterize earthquake source parameters, such as the length and the width of the fault, the focal depth, the rake (slip) and the dip angles, and the slip amount. Then, we relate ocean surface profiles calculated through Okada (1985) to the generalized N-wave profile defined by Tadepalli and Synolakis (1994) and identify N-wave parameters. Since, for an N-wave type initial condition, Tadepalli and Synolakis (1994) presented maximum runup for a canonical problem -wave propagating over a constant depth segment first and then over a sloping beach- and Kanoglu (2004, J. Fluid Mech., 513, 363-372) for a sloping beach their results allow us to

  7. Parameter Estimation and Experimental Design in Groundwater Modeling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Ne-zheng

    2004-01-01

    This paper reviews the latest developments on parameter estimation and experimental design in the field of groundwater modeling. Special considerations are given when the structure of the identified parameter is complex and unknown. A new methodology for constructing useful groundwater models is described, which is based on the quantitative relationships among the complexity of model structure, the identifiability of parameter, the sufficiency of data, and the reliability of model application.

  8. Bayesian approach to decompression sickness model parameter estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howle, L E; Weber, P W; Nichols, J M

    2017-03-01

    We examine both maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches for estimating probabilistic decompression sickness model parameters. Maximum likelihood estimation treats parameters as fixed values and determines the best estimate through repeated trials, whereas the Bayesian approach treats parameters as random variables and determines the parameter probability distributions. We would ultimately like to know the probability that a parameter lies in a certain range rather than simply make statements about the repeatability of our estimator. Although both represent powerful methods of inference, for models with complex or multi-peaked likelihoods, maximum likelihood parameter estimates can prove more difficult to interpret than the estimates of the parameter distributions provided by the Bayesian approach. For models of decompression sickness, we show that while these two estimation methods are complementary, the credible intervals generated by the Bayesian approach are more naturally suited to quantifying uncertainty in the model parameters.

  9. Parameter redundancy in discrete state‐space and integrated models

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCrea, Rachel S.

    2016-01-01

    Discrete state‐space models are used in ecology to describe the dynamics of wild animal populations, with parameters, such as the probability of survival, being of ecological interest. For a particular parametrization of a model it is not always clear which parameters can be estimated. This inability to estimate all parameters is known as parameter redundancy or a model is described as nonidentifiable. In this paper we develop methods that can be used to detect parameter redundancy in discrete state‐space models. An exhaustive summary is a combination of parameters that fully specify a model. To use general methods for detecting parameter redundancy a suitable exhaustive summary is required. This paper proposes two methods for the derivation of an exhaustive summary for discrete state‐space models using discrete analogues of methods for continuous state‐space models. We also demonstrate that combining multiple data sets, through the use of an integrated population model, may result in a model in which all parameters are estimable, even though models fitted to the separate data sets may be parameter redundant. PMID:27362826

  10. Parameter redundancy in discrete state-space and integrated models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Diana J; McCrea, Rachel S

    2016-09-01

    Discrete state-space models are used in ecology to describe the dynamics of wild animal populations, with parameters, such as the probability of survival, being of ecological interest. For a particular parametrization of a model it is not always clear which parameters can be estimated. This inability to estimate all parameters is known as parameter redundancy or a model is described as nonidentifiable. In this paper we develop methods that can be used to detect parameter redundancy in discrete state-space models. An exhaustive summary is a combination of parameters that fully specify a model. To use general methods for detecting parameter redundancy a suitable exhaustive summary is required. This paper proposes two methods for the derivation of an exhaustive summary for discrete state-space models using discrete analogues of methods for continuous state-space models. We also demonstrate that combining multiple data sets, through the use of an integrated population model, may result in a model in which all parameters are estimable, even though models fitted to the separate data sets may be parameter redundant. © 2016 The Author. Biometrical Journal published by WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  11. An automatic and effective parameter optimization method for model tuning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Zhang

    2015-11-01

    simulation results show that the optimum combination of these parameters determined using this method is able to improve the model's overall performance by 9 %. The proposed methodology and software framework can be easily applied to other GCMs to speed up the model development process, especially regarding unavoidable comprehensive parameter tuning during the model development stage.

  12. Ternary interaction parameters in calphad solution models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eleno, Luiz T.F., E-mail: luizeleno@usp.br [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil). Instituto de Fisica; Schön, Claudio G., E-mail: schoen@usp.br [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil). Computational Materials Science Laboratory. Department of Metallurgical and Materials Engineering

    2014-07-01

    For random, diluted, multicomponent solutions, the excess chemical potentials can be expanded in power series of the composition, with coefficients that are pressure- and temperature-dependent. For a binary system, this approach is equivalent to using polynomial truncated expansions, such as the Redlich-Kister series for describing integral thermodynamic quantities. For ternary systems, an equivalent expansion of the excess chemical potentials clearly justifies the inclusion of ternary interaction parameters, which arise naturally in the form of correction terms in higher-order power expansions. To demonstrate this, we carry out truncated polynomial expansions of the excess chemical potential up to the sixth power of the composition variables. (author)

  13. Determining important parameters related to cyanobacterial alkaloid toxin exposure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Love, A H

    2005-09-16

    Science-based decision making required robust and high-fidelity mechanistic data about the system dynamics and impacts of system changes. Alkaloid cyanotoxins have the characteristics to warrant consideration for their potential threat. Since insufficient information is available to construct a systems model for the alkaloid cyanotoxins, saxitoxins, anatoxins, and anatoxin-a(S), an accurate assessments of these toxins as a potential threat for use for intentional contamination is not possible. Alkaloid cyanotoxin research that contributed to such a model has numerous areas of overlap for natural and intentional health effects issues that generates dual improvements to the state of the science. The use of sensitivity analyses of systems models can identify parameters that, when determined, result in the greatest impact to the overall system and may help to direct the most efficient use of research funding. This type of modeling-assisted experimentation may allow rapid progress for overall system understanding compared to observational or disciplinary research agendas. Assessment and management of risk from intentional contamination can be performed with greater confidence when mechanisms are known and the relationships between different components are validated. This level of understanding allows high-fidelity assessments that do not hamper legitimate possession of these toxins for research purposes, while preventing intentional contamination that would affect public health. It also allows for appropriate response to an intentional contamination event, even if the specific contamination had not been previous considered. Development of science-based decision making tools will only improve our ability to address the new requirements addressing potential threats to our nation.

  14. Allowed Parameter Regions for a Tree-Level Inflation Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MENG Xin-He

    2001-01-01

    The early universe inflation is well known as a promising theory to explain the origin of large-scale structure of universe and to solve the early universe pressing problems. For a reasonable inflation model, the potential during inflation must be very flat, at least, in the direction of the inflaton. To construct the inflaton potential all the known related astrophysics observations should be included. For a general tree-level hybrid inflation potential, which is notdiscussed fully so far, the parameters in it are shown how to be constrained via the astrophysics data observed and to be obtained to the expected accuracy, and to be consistent with cosmology requirements.``

  15. Automatic parameter extraction technique for gate leakage current modeling in double gate MOSFET

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darbandy, Ghader; Gneiting, Thomas; Alius, Heidrun; Alvarado, Joaquín; Cerdeira, Antonio; Iñiguez, Benjamin

    2013-11-01

    Direct Tunneling (DT) and Trap Assisted Tunneling (TAT) gate leakage current parameters have been extracted and verified considering automatic parameter extraction approach. The industry standard package IC-CAP is used to extract our leakage current model parameters. The model is coded in Verilog-A and the comparison between the model and measured data allows to obtain the model parameter values and parameters correlations/relations. The model and parameter extraction techniques have been used to study the impact of parameters in the gate leakage current based on the extracted parameter values. It is shown that the gate leakage current depends on the interfacial barrier height more strongly than the barrier height of the dielectric layer. There is almost the same scenario with respect to the carrier effective masses into the interfacial layer and the dielectric layer. The comparison between the simulated results and available measured gate leakage current transistor characteristics of Trigate MOSFETs shows good agreement.

  16. Parameter estimation and error analysis in environmental modeling and computation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalmaz, E. E.

    1986-01-01

    A method for the estimation of parameters and error analysis in the development of nonlinear modeling for environmental impact assessment studies is presented. The modular computer program can interactively fit different nonlinear models to the same set of data, dynamically changing the error structure associated with observed values. Parameter estimation techniques and sequential estimation algorithms employed in parameter identification and model selection are first discussed. Then, least-square parameter estimation procedures are formulated, utilizing differential or integrated equations, and are used to define a model for association of error with experimentally observed data.

  17. Strong parameter renormalization from optimum lattice model orbitals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brosco, Valentina; Ying, Zu-Jian; Lorenzana, José

    2017-01-01

    Which is the best single-particle basis to express a Hubbard-like lattice model? A rigorous variational answer to this question leads to equations the solution of which depends in a self-consistent manner on the lattice ground state. Contrary to naive expectations, for arbitrary small interactions, the optimized orbitals differ from the noninteracting ones, leading also to substantial changes in the model parameters as shown analytically and in an explicit numerical solution for a simple double-well one-dimensional case. At strong coupling, we obtain the direct exchange interaction with a very large renormalization with important consequences for the explanation of ferromagnetism with model Hamiltonians. Moreover, in the case of two atoms and two fermions we show that the optimization equations are closely related to reduced density-matrix functional theory, thus establishing an unsuspected correspondence between continuum and lattice approaches.

  18. Summary of the DREAM8 Parameter Estimation Challenge: Toward Parameter Identification for Whole-Cell Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan R Karr

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Whole-cell models that explicitly represent all cellular components at the molecular level have the potential to predict phenotype from genotype. However, even for simple bacteria, whole-cell models will contain thousands of parameters, many of which are poorly characterized or unknown. New algorithms are needed to estimate these parameters and enable researchers to build increasingly comprehensive models. We organized the Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods (DREAM 8 Whole-Cell Parameter Estimation Challenge to develop new parameter estimation algorithms for whole-cell models. We asked participants to identify a subset of parameters of a whole-cell model given the model's structure and in silico "experimental" data. Here we describe the challenge, the best performing methods, and new insights into the identifiability of whole-cell models. We also describe several valuable lessons we learned toward improving future challenges. Going forward, we believe that collaborative efforts supported by inexpensive cloud computing have the potential to solve whole-cell model parameter estimation.

  19. Parameter estimation of hydrologic models using data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaheil, Y. H.

    2005-12-01

    The uncertainties associated with the modeling of hydrologic systems sometimes demand that data should be incorporated in an on-line fashion in order to understand the behavior of the system. This paper represents a Bayesian strategy to estimate parameters for hydrologic models in an iterative mode. The paper presents a modified technique called localized Bayesian recursive estimation (LoBaRE) that efficiently identifies the optimum parameter region, avoiding convergence to a single best parameter set. The LoBaRE methodology is tested for parameter estimation for two different types of models: a support vector machine (SVM) model for predicting soil moisture, and the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model for estimating streamflow. The SAC-SMA model has 13 parameters that must be determined. The SVM model has three parameters. Bayesian inference is used to estimate the best parameter set in an iterative fashion. This is done by narrowing the sampling space by imposing uncertainty bounds on the posterior best parameter set and/or updating the "parent" bounds based on their fitness. The new approach results in fast convergence towards the optimal parameter set using minimum training/calibration data and evaluation of fewer parameter sets. The efficacy of the localized methodology is also compared with the previously used Bayesian recursive estimation (BaRE) algorithm.

  20. Spatial Variations of Aftershock Parameters and their Relation to Geodetic Slip Models for the 2010 Mw8.8 Maule and the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku-oki Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakharova, O.; Hainzl, S.; Lange, D.; Enescu, B.

    2017-01-01

    Recent development in analysis tools and deployments of the geodetic and seismic instruments give an opportunity to investigate aftershock sequences at local scales, which is important for the seismic hazard assessment. In particular, we study the dependencies between aftershock sequences properties and deformational/geological data on a scale of the rupture extension of megathrust earthquakes. For this goal we use, on one hand, published models of inter-, co- and postseismic slip and geological information and, on the other hand, aftershock parameters, obtained by fitting a modified Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. The altered ETAS model takes into account the mainshock rupture extension and it distinguishes between primary and the secondary aftershock triggering involved in the total seismicity rate. We estimate the Spearman correlation coefficients between the spatially distributed aftershock parameters estimated by the modified ETAS model and crustal physical properties for the Maule 2010 Mw8.8 and the Tohoku-oki 2011 Mw9.0 aftershock sequences. We find that: (1) modified ETAS model outperforms the classical one, when the mainshock rupture extension cannot be neglected and represented as a point source; (2) anomalous aftershock parameters occur in the areas of the reactivated fault systems; (3) aftershocks, regardless of their generation, tend to occur in the areas of high coseismic slip gradient, afterslip and interseismic coupling; (4) aftershock seismic moment releases preferentially in regions of large coseismic slip, coseismic slip gradient and interseismically locked areas; (5) b value tends to be smaller in interseismically locked regions.

  1. Estimation of Kinetic Parameters in an Automotive SCR Catalyst Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Åberg, Andreas; Widd, Anders; Abildskov, Jens;

    2016-01-01

    A challenge during the development of models for simulation of the automotive Selective Catalytic Reduction catalyst is the parameter estimation of the kinetic parameters, which can be time consuming and problematic. The parameter estimation is often carried out on small-scale reactor tests, or p...

  2. Mirror symmetry for two parameter models, 2

    CERN Document Server

    Candelas, Philip; Katz, S; Morrison, Douglas Robert Ogston; Philip Candelas; Anamaria Font; Sheldon Katz; David R Morrison

    1994-01-01

    We describe in detail the space of the two K\\"ahler parameters of the Calabi--Yau manifold \\P_4^{(1,1,1,6,9)}[18] by exploiting mirror symmetry. The large complex structure limit of the mirror, which corresponds to the classical large radius limit, is found by studying the monodromy of the periods about the discriminant locus, the boundary of the moduli space corresponding to singular Calabi--Yau manifolds. A symplectic basis of periods is found and the action of the Sp(6,\\Z) generators of the modular group is determined. From the mirror map we compute the instanton expansion of the Yukawa couplings and the generalized N=2 index, arriving at the numbers of instantons of genus zero and genus one of each degree. We also investigate an SL(2,\\Z) symmetry that acts on a boundary of the moduli space.

  3. Accuracy of Parameter Estimation in Gibbs Sampling under the Two-Parameter Logistic Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Seock-Ho; Cohen, Allan S.

    The accuracy of Gibbs sampling, a Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure, was considered for estimation of item and ability parameters under the two-parameter logistic model. Memory test data were analyzed to illustrate the Gibbs sampling procedure. Simulated data sets were analyzed using Gibbs sampling and the marginal Bayesian method. The marginal…

  4. On linear models and parameter identifiability in experimental biological systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamberton, Timothy O; Condon, Nicholas D; Stow, Jennifer L; Hamilton, Nicholas A

    2014-10-07

    A key problem in the biological sciences is to be able to reliably estimate model parameters from experimental data. This is the well-known problem of parameter identifiability. Here, methods are developed for biologists and other modelers to design optimal experiments to ensure parameter identifiability at a structural level. The main results of the paper are to provide a general methodology for extracting parameters of linear models from an experimentally measured scalar function - the transfer function - and a framework for the identifiability analysis of complex model structures using linked models. Linked models are composed by letting the output of one model become the input to another model which is then experimentally measured. The linked model framework is shown to be applicable to designing experiments to identify the measured sub-model and recover the input from the unmeasured sub-model, even in cases that the unmeasured sub-model is not identifiable. Applications for a set of common model features are demonstrated, and the results combined in an example application to a real-world experimental system. These applications emphasize the insight into answering "where to measure" and "which experimental scheme" questions provided by both the parameter extraction methodology and the linked model framework. The aim is to demonstrate the tools' usefulness in guiding experimental design to maximize parameter information obtained, based on the model structure.

  5. Parameter and Process Significance in Mechanistic Modeling of Cellulose Hydrolysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rotter, B.; Barry, A.; Gerhard, J.; Small, J.; Tahar, B.

    2005-12-01

    The rate of cellulose hydrolysis, and of associated microbial processes, is important in determining the stability of landfills and their potential impact on the environment, as well as associated time scales. To permit further exploration in this field, a process-based model of cellulose hydrolysis was developed. The model, which is relevant to both landfill and anaerobic digesters, includes a novel approach to biomass transfer between a cellulose-bound biofilm and biomass in the surrounding liquid. Model results highlight the significance of the bacterial colonization of cellulose particles by attachment through contact in solution. Simulations revealed that enhanced colonization, and therefore cellulose degradation, was associated with reduced cellulose particle size, higher biomass populations in solution, and increased cellulose-binding ability of the biomass. A sensitivity analysis of the system parameters revealed different sensitivities to model parameters for a typical landfill scenario versus that for an anaerobic digester. The results indicate that relative surface area of cellulose and proximity of hydrolyzing bacteria are key factors determining the cellulose degradation rate.

  6. Zoom lens calibration with zoom- and focus-related intrinsic parameters applied to bundle adjustment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Shunyi; Wang, Zheng; Huang, Rongyong

    2015-04-01

    A zoom lens is more flexible for photogrammetric measurements under diverse environments than a fixed lens. However, challenges in calibration of zoom-lens cameras preclude the wide use of zoom lenses in the field of close-range photogrammetry. Thus, a novel zoom lens calibration method is proposed in this study. In this method, instead of conducting modeling after monofocal calibrations, we summarize the empirical zoom/focus models of intrinsic parameters first and then incorporate these parameters into traditional collinearity equations to construct the fundamental mathematical model, i.e., collinearity equations with zoom- and focus-related intrinsic parameters. Similar to monofocal calibration, images taken at several combinations of zoom and focus settings are processed in a single self-calibration bundle adjustment. In the self-calibration bundle adjustment, three types of unknowns, namely, exterior orientation parameters, unknown space point coordinates, and model coefficients of the intrinsic parameters, are solved simultaneously. Experiments on three different digital cameras with zoom lenses support the feasibility of the proposed method, and their relative accuracies range from 1:4000 to 1:15,100. Furthermore, the nominal focal length written in the exchangeable image file header is found to lack reliability in experiments. Thereafter, the joint influence of zoom lens instability and zoom recording errors is further analyzed quantitatively. The analysis result is consistent with the experimental result and explains the reason why zoom lens calibration can never have the same accuracy as monofocal self-calibration.

  7. WINKLER'S SINGLE-PARAMETER SUBGRADE MODEL FROM ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Preferred Customer

    [3, 9]. However, mainly due to the simplicity of Winkler's model in practical applications and .... this case, the coefficient B takes the dimension of a ... In plane-strain problems, the assumption of ... loaded circular region; s is the radial coordinate.

  8. Improved Methodology for Parameter Inference in Nonlinear, Hydrologic Regression Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, Bryson C.

    1992-01-01

    A new method is developed for the construction of reliable marginal confidence intervals and joint confidence regions for the parameters of nonlinear, hydrologic regression models. A parameter power transformation is combined with measures of the asymptotic bias and asymptotic skewness of maximum likelihood estimators to determine the transformation constants which cause the bias or skewness to vanish. These optimized constants are used to construct confidence intervals and regions for the transformed model parameters using linear regression theory. The resulting confidence intervals and regions can be easily mapped into the original parameter space to give close approximations to likelihood method confidence intervals and regions for the model parameters. Unlike many other approaches to parameter transformation, the procedure does not use a grid search to find the optimal transformation constants. An example involving the fitting of the Michaelis-Menten model to velocity-discharge data from an Australian gauging station is used to illustrate the usefulness of the methodology.

  9. A simulation of water pollution model parameter estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibler, J. F.

    1976-01-01

    A parameter estimation procedure for a water pollution transport model is elaborated. A two-dimensional instantaneous-release shear-diffusion model serves as representative of a simple transport process. Pollution concentration levels are arrived at via modeling of a remote-sensing system. The remote-sensed data are simulated by adding Gaussian noise to the concentration level values generated via the transport model. Model parameters are estimated from the simulated data using a least-squares batch processor. Resolution, sensor array size, and number and location of sensor readings can be found from the accuracies of the parameter estimates.

  10. On retrial queueing model with fuzzy parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ke, Jau-Chuan; Huang, Hsin-I.; Lin, Chuen-Horng

    2007-01-01

    This work constructs the membership functions of the system characteristics of a retrial queueing model with fuzzy customer arrival, retrial and service rates. The α-cut approach is used to transform a fuzzy retrial-queue into a family of conventional crisp retrial queues in this context. By means of the membership functions of the system characteristics, a set of parametric non-linear programs is developed to describe the family of crisp retrial queues. A numerical example is solved successfully to illustrate the validity of the proposed approach. Because the system characteristics are expressed and governed by the membership functions, more information is provided for use by management. By extending this model to the fuzzy environment, fuzzy retrial-queue is represented more accurately and analytic results are more useful for system designers and practitioners.

  11. Solar parameters for modeling interplanetary background

    CERN Document Server

    Bzowski, M; Tokumaru, M; Fujiki, K; Quemerais, E; Lallement, R; Ferron, S; Bochsler, P; McComas, D J

    2011-01-01

    The goal of the Fully Online Datacenter of Ultraviolet Emissions (FONDUE) Working Team of the International Space Science Institute in Bern, Switzerland, was to establish a common calibration of various UV and EUV heliospheric observations, both spectroscopic and photometric. Realization of this goal required an up-to-date model of spatial distribution of neutral interstellar hydrogen in the heliosphere, and to that end, a credible model of the radiation pressure and ionization processes was needed. This chapter describes the solar factors shaping the distribution of neutral interstellar H in the heliosphere. Presented are the solar Lyman-alpha flux and the solar Lyman-alpha resonant radiation pressure force acting on neutral H atoms in the heliosphere, solar EUV radiation and the photoionization of heliospheric hydrogen, and their evolution in time and the still hypothetical variation with heliolatitude. Further, solar wind and its evolution with solar activity is presented in the context of the charge excha...

  12. Remote sensing of wetland parameters related to carbon cycling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartlett, David S.; Johnson, Robert W.

    1985-01-01

    Measurement of the rates of important biogeochemical fluxes on regional or global scales is vital to understanding the geochemical and climatic consequences of natural biospheric processes and of human intervention in those processes. Remote data gathering and interpretation techniques were used to examine important cycling processes taking place in wetlands over large geographic expanses. Large area estimation of vegetative biomass and productivity depends upon accurate, consistent measurements of canopy spectral reflectance and upon wide applicability of algorithms relating reflectance to biometric parameters. Results of the use of airborne multispectral scanner data to map above-ground biomass in a Delaware salt marsh are shown. The mapping uses an effective algorithm linking biomass to measured spectral reflectance and a means to correct the scanner data for large variations in the angle of observation of the canopy. The consistency of radiometric biomass algorithms for marsh grass when they are applied over large latitudinal and tidal range gradients were also examined. Results of a 1 year study of methane emissions from tidal wetlands along a salinity gradient show marked effects of temperature, season, and pore-water chemistry in mediating flux to the atmosphere.

  13. The Effect of the Number of Simulations on the Exponents Obtained by Finite-Size Scaling Relations of the Order Parameter and the Magnetic Susceptibility for the Four-Dimensional Ising Model on the Creutz Cellular Automaton

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merdan, Z.; Güzelsoy, E.

    2012-05-01

    The four-dimensional Ising model is simulated on the Creutz cellular automaton using finite-size lattices with linear dimension 4≤ L≤8. The exponents in the finite-size scaling relations for the order parameter and the magnetic susceptibility at the finite-lattice critical temperature are computed to be β=0.49(7), β=0.49(5), β=0.50(1) and γ=1.04(4), γ=1.03(4), γ=1.02(4) for 7, 14, and 21 independent simulations, respectively. As the number of independent simulations increases, the obtained results are consistent with the renormalization group predictions of β=0.5 and γ=1. The values for the critical temperature of the infinite lattice T c (∞)=6.6788(65), T c (∞)=6.6798(69), T c (∞)=6.6802(70) are obtained from the straight-line fit of the magnetic susceptibility maxima using 4≤ L≤8 for 7, 14, and 21 independent simulations, respectively. As the number of independent simulations increases, the obtained results are in very good agreement with the series expansion results of T c (∞)=6.6817(15), T c (∞)=6.6802(2), the dynamic Monte Carlo result of T c (∞)=6.6803(1), the cluster Monte Carlo result of T c (∞)=6.680(1) and the Monte Carlo using Metropolis and Wolff-cluster algorithm result of T c (∞)=6.6802632±5×10-5.

  14. Linear Sigma Models With Strongly Coupled Phases -- One Parameter Models

    CERN Document Server

    Hori, Kentaro

    2013-01-01

    We systematically construct a class of two-dimensional $(2,2)$ supersymmetric gauged linear sigma models with phases in which a continuous subgroup of the gauge group is totally unbroken. We study some of their properties by employing a recently developed technique. The focus of the present work is on models with one K\\"ahler parameter. The models include those corresponding to Calabi-Yau threefolds, extending three examples found earlier by a few more, as well as Calabi-Yau manifolds of other dimensions and non-Calabi-Yau manifolds. The construction leads to predictions of equivalences of D-brane categories, systematically extending earlier examples. There is another type of surprise. Two distinct superconformal field theories corresponding to Calabi-Yau threefolds with different Hodge numbers, $h^{2,1}=23$ versus $h^{2,1}=59$, have exactly the same quantum K\\"ahler moduli space. The strong-weak duality plays a crucial r\\^ole in confirming this, and also is useful in the actual computation of the metric on t...

  15. Parameter identification in tidal models with uncertain boundaries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bagchi, Arunabha; ten Brummelhuis, P.G.J.; ten Brummelhuis, Paul

    1994-01-01

    In this paper we consider a simultaneous state and parameter estimation procedure for tidal models with random inputs, which is formulated as a minimization problem. It is assumed that some model parameters are unknown and that the random noise inputs only act upon the open boundaries. The

  16. Exploring the interdependencies between parameters in a material model.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silling, Stewart Andrew; Fermen-Coker, Muge

    2014-01-01

    A method is investigated to reduce the number of numerical parameters in a material model for a solid. The basis of the method is to detect interdependencies between parameters within a class of materials of interest. The method is demonstrated for a set of material property data for iron and steel using the Johnson-Cook plasticity model.

  17. An Alternative Three-Parameter Logistic Item Response Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pashley, Peter J.

    Birnbaum's three-parameter logistic function has become a common basis for item response theory modeling, especially within situations where significant guessing behavior is evident. This model is formed through a linear transformation of the two-parameter logistic function in order to facilitate a lower asymptote. This paper discusses an…

  18. Parameter identification in tidal models with uncertain boundaries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bagchi, Arunabha; Brummelhuis, ten Paul

    1994-01-01

    In this paper we consider a simultaneous state and parameter estimation procedure for tidal models with random inputs, which is formulated as a minimization problem. It is assumed that some model parameters are unknown and that the random noise inputs only act upon the open boundaries. The hyperboli

  19. A compact cyclic plasticity model with parameter evolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krenk, Steen; Tidemann, L.

    2017-01-01

    , and it is demonstrated that this simple formulation enables very accurate representation of experimental results. An extension of the theory to account for model parameter evolution effects, e.g. in the form of changing yield level, is included in the form of extended evolution equations for the model parameters...

  20. Regionalization of SWAT Model Parameters for Use in Ungauged Watersheds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Indrajeet Chaubey

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available There has been a steady shift towards modeling and model-based approaches as primary methods of assessing watershed response to hydrologic inputs and land management, and of quantifying watershed-wide best management practice (BMP effectiveness. Watershed models often require some degree of calibration and validation to achieve adequate watershed and therefore BMP representation. This is, however, only possible for gauged watersheds. There are many watersheds for which there are very little or no monitoring data available, thus the question as to whether it would be possible to extend and/or generalize model parameters obtained through calibration of gauged watersheds to ungauged watersheds within the same region. This study explored the possibility of developing regionalized model parameter sets for use in ungauged watersheds. The study evaluated two regionalization methods: global averaging, and regression-based parameters, on the SWAT model using data from priority watersheds in Arkansas. Resulting parameters were tested and model performance determined on three gauged watersheds. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (NS for stream flow obtained using regression-based parameters (0.53–0.83 compared well with corresponding values obtained through model calibration (0.45–0.90. Model performance obtained using global averaged parameter values was also generally acceptable (0.4 ≤ NS ≤ 0.75. Results from this study indicate that regionalized parameter sets for the SWAT model can be obtained and used for making satisfactory hydrologic response predictions in ungauged watersheds.

  1. Towards closure relations in the Representative Elementary Watershed (REW) framework containing observable parameters: Relations for Hortonian overland flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vannametee, E.; Karssenberg, D.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2012-07-01

    This study presents the derivation procedure of an integrated closure relation for infiltration and Hortonian overland flow in the Representative Elementary Watershed (REW) framework that contains directly-observable parameters. A physically-based high resolution model is used to simulate the infiltration flux and discharge for 6 × 105 set of synthetic REWs and rainstorms scenarios. This synthetic data set serves as a surrogate of real-world data to deduce the closure relation. The closure relation performance is evaluated against the results from the high resolution model. The results show that the closure relation is capable of predicting accurate hydrological responses for an independent set of synthetic REWs and rainstroms in terms of the Nash-Sutcliffe index, errors in total discharge volume, and peak discharge, especially in cases where a relatively large amount of runoff is produced with fast responses. For the estimation of parameters in the closure relation, a local method using inverse distance weighted interpolation in the parameter space is superior to the global method based on the multiple regression, resulting in a better reproduction of runoff characteristics.

  2. Helical CT study of cerebral perfusion and related hemodynamic parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cenic, Aleksa; Lee, Ting-Yim; Craen, Rosemary A.; Gelb, Adrian W.

    1997-05-01

    A convenient method for assessing cerebral perfusion and related functional parameters has been developed using a third generation slip-ring CT scanner. Dynamic contrast- enhanced scanning at the same level was employed to image the cerebral circulation at the rate of 1 image per second. Using data acquired with this non-helical mode of scanning, we have developed a method for the simultaneous in-vivo determination of cerebral blood flow (CBF), cerebral blood volume (CBV), and mean transit time (MTT). These measurements are given in the same physiological units as positron emission tomography. In order to obtain accurate measurements of these parameters, methods were also developed to correct for recirculation and partial volume averaging in imaging small blood vessels. We have used 6 New Zealand white rabbits in our studies. For each rabbit, up to 3 CT measurements of CBF, CBV, and MTT were made at normocapnia under isoflurane anesthesia. Coronal sections through the brain were imaged while simultaneously imaging either a brain artery or the ear artery. Images were acquired for 1 minute as Isovue 300 was injected intravenously. In the acquired CT images, regions of interest in brain parenchyma and an artery were drawn. For each region of interest, the mean CT number in pre-contrast images was subtracted from the mean in post-contrast images to calculate the contrast concentration curves for the brain regions Q(t) and the arterial region Ca(t). Using a robust deconvolution method, the MTT was determined. CBV was then determined from the ratio of the areas of Q(t) and Ca(t). Finally, CBF was calculated from the Central Volume Principle. The mean regional CBF, CBV and MTT values were 73.3 +/- 5.1 ml/min/100g, 1.93 +/- 0.12 ml/100g and 1.80 +/- 0.18 s respectively. IN order to validate our CT CBF measurements, we also measured CBF using the well- established technique of microspheres with each CT study. The feasibility of our CT method to measure CBF accurately was

  3. Bayesian estimation of parameters in a regional hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Engeland

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the applicability of the distributed, process-oriented Ecomag model for prediction of daily streamflow in ungauged basins. The Ecomag model is applied as a regional model to nine catchments in the NOPEX area, using Bayesian statistics to estimate the posterior distribution of the model parameters conditioned on the observed streamflow. The distribution is calculated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC analysis. The Bayesian method requires formulation of a likelihood function for the parameters and three alternative formulations are used. The first is a subjectively chosen objective function that describes the goodness of fit between the simulated and observed streamflow, as defined in the GLUE framework. The second and third formulations are more statistically correct likelihood models that describe the simulation errors. The full statistical likelihood model describes the simulation errors as an AR(1 process, whereas the simple model excludes the auto-regressive part. The statistical parameters depend on the catchments and the hydrological processes and the statistical and the hydrological parameters are estimated simultaneously. The results show that the simple likelihood model gives the most robust parameter estimates. The simulation error may be explained to a large extent by the catchment characteristics and climatic conditions, so it is possible to transfer knowledge about them to ungauged catchments. The statistical models for the simulation errors indicate that structural errors in the model are more important than parameter uncertainties. Keywords: regional hydrological model, model uncertainty, Bayesian analysis, Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis

  4. 预测细粒酒精模型冰物理和力学参数的实验关系%FORECAST EXPERIMENT RELATIONS OF THE PHYSICAL AND MECHANICAL PARAMETERS OF FINE GRAIN ETHANOL MODEL ICE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李志军; RISKA; Kaj

    2001-01-01

    Model ice is a necessary material in the physical simulation study of interaction between ice and structures (ships). Fine grain ethanol model ice is one of frozen grain model ices. At present, no single material that can modify natural ice properties suitably has been found because the present model ice properties change with the ice making technique and the ingredients. Therefore, the model ice properties become one of the main factors that dominate the simulation results. In practice, just a few parameters are modified following simulation rules based on the research purpose. Even though, the model ice thickness and the modified mechanical properties are not the same with the desired values. Since fine grain ethanol model ice come into beings, in model tests of ice and ships or structures desired properties were controlled by experience, true properties were measured before the tests, and model results were explained by modified parameters. How can model ice properties be controlled by using ice basin temperature, cold solid time and warm time as well as desire model ice thickness (water jumping rate>×time) which can be controlled in ice making procedures? That is the purpose of the study to answer this question. A series of detailed research on the ethanol freezing point (instead of ethanol percent), ice temperatures, ice basin air temperature, unfrozen liquid in model ice, ice density, ice compressive strength, ice flexural strength and ice strain modulus was done. The new index forecasting any kind of fine grain model ice parameters established based on the physical essence in ice making and measured model ice parameters. This paper provides the physical basis of the index and the experimental relationships between the index and each of the main physical and mechanical parameters of the ethanol modal ice.%依据模型冰物理性质控制其力学性质的原则,利用能量平衡观点建立了冰内未冻结液体含量同制冰过程中的冰池温度

  5. Parameter sensitivity in satellite-gravity-constrained geothermal modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastorutti, Alberto; Braitenberg, Carla

    2017-04-01

    The use of satellite gravity data in thermal structure estimates require identifying the factors that affect the gravity field and are related to the thermal characteristics of the lithosphere. We propose a set of forward-modelled synthetics, investigating the model response in terms of heat flow, temperature, and gravity effect at satellite altitude. The sensitivity analysis concerns the parameters involved, as heat production, thermal conductivity, density and their temperature dependence. We discuss the effect of the horizontal smoothing due to heat conduction, the superposition of the bulk thermal effect of near-surface processes (e.g. advection in ground-water and permeable faults, paleoclimatic effects, blanketing by sediments), and the out-of equilibrium conditions due to tectonic transients. All of them have the potential to distort the gravity-derived estimates.We find that the temperature-conductivity relationship has a small effect with respect to other parameter uncertainties on the modelled temperature depth variation, surface heat flow, thermal lithosphere thickness. We conclude that the global gravity is useful for geothermal studies.

  6. Empirically modelled Pc3 activity based on solar wind parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Raita

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available It is known that under certain solar wind (SW/interplanetary magnetic field (IMF conditions (e.g. high SW speed, low cone angle the occurrence of ground-level Pc3–4 pulsations is more likely. In this paper we demonstrate that in the event of anomalously low SW particle density, Pc3 activity is extremely low regardless of otherwise favourable SW speed and cone angle. We re-investigate the SW control of Pc3 pulsation activity through a statistical analysis and two empirical models with emphasis on the influence of SW density on Pc3 activity. We utilise SW and IMF measurements from the OMNI project and ground-based magnetometer measurements from the MM100 array to relate SW and IMF measurements to the occurrence of Pc3 activity. Multiple linear regression and artificial neural network models are used in iterative processes in order to identify sets of SW-based input parameters, which optimally reproduce a set of Pc3 activity data. The inclusion of SW density in the parameter set significantly improves the models. Not only the density itself, but other density related parameters, such as the dynamic pressure of the SW, or the standoff distance of the magnetopause work equally well in the model. The disappearance of Pc3s during low-density events can have at least four reasons according to the existing upstream wave theory: 1. Pausing the ion-cyclotron resonance that generates the upstream ultra low frequency waves in the absence of protons, 2. Weakening of the bow shock that implies less efficient reflection, 3. The SW becomes sub-Alfvénic and hence it is not able to sweep back the waves propagating upstream with the Alfvén-speed, and 4. The increase of the standoff distance of the magnetopause (and of the bow shock. Although the models cannot account for the lack of Pc3s during intervals when the SW density is extremely low, the resulting sets of optimal model inputs support the generation of mid latitude Pc3 activity predominantly through

  7. Verification Techniques for Parameter Selection and Bayesian Model Calibration Presented for an HIV Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wentworth, Mami Tonoe

    techniques for model calibration. For Bayesian model calibration, we employ adaptive Metropolis algorithms to construct densities for input parameters in the heat model and the HIV model. To quantify the uncertainty in the parameters, we employ two MCMC algorithms: Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis (DRAM) [33] and Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) [66, 68]. The densities obtained using these methods are compared to those obtained through the direct numerical evaluation of the Bayes' formula. We also combine uncertainties in input parameters and measurement errors to construct predictive estimates for a model response. A significant emphasis is on the development and illustration of techniques to verify the accuracy of sampling-based Metropolis algorithms. We verify the accuracy of DRAM and DREAM by comparing chains, densities and correlations obtained using DRAM, DREAM and the direct evaluation of Bayes formula. We also perform similar analysis for credible and prediction intervals for responses. Once the parameters are estimated, we employ energy statistics test [63, 64] to compare the densities obtained by different methods for the HIV model. The energy statistics are used to test the equality of distributions. We also consider parameter selection and verification techniques for models having one or more parameters that are noninfluential in the sense that they minimally impact model outputs. We illustrate these techniques for a dynamic HIV model but note that the parameter selection and verification framework is applicable to a wide range of biological and physical models. To accommodate the nonlinear input to output relations, which are typical for such models, we focus on global sensitivity analysis techniques, including those based on partial correlations, Sobol indices based on second-order model representations, and Morris indices, as well as a parameter selection technique based on standard errors. A significant objective is to provide

  8. Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Henrik; Johansen, Søren

    1999-01-01

    Some methods for the evaluation of parameter constancy in vector autoregressive (VAR) models are discussed. Two different ways of re-estimating the VAR model are proposed; one in which all parameters are estimated recursively based upon the likelihood function for the first observations, and anot...... be applied to test the constancy of the long-run parameters in the cointegrated VAR-model. All results are illustrated using a model for the term structure of interest rates on US Treasury securities. ...

  9. Spatio-temporal modeling of nonlinear distributed parameter systems

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Han-Xiong

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this volume is to provide a brief review of the previous work on model reduction and identifi cation of distributed parameter systems (DPS), and develop new spatio-temporal models and their relevant identifi cation approaches. In this book, a systematic overview and classifi cation on the modeling of DPS is presented fi rst, which includes model reduction, parameter estimation and system identifi cation. Next, a class of block-oriented nonlinear systems in traditional lumped parameter systems (LPS) is extended to DPS, which results in the spatio-temporal Wiener and Hammerstein s

  10. Unscented Kalman filter with parameter identifiability analysis for the estimation of multiple parameters in kinetic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baker Syed

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In systems biology, experimentally measured parameters are not always available, necessitating the use of computationally based parameter estimation. In order to rely on estimated parameters, it is critical to first determine which parameters can be estimated for a given model and measurement set. This is done with parameter identifiability analysis. A kinetic model of the sucrose accumulation in the sugar cane culm tissue developed by Rohwer et al. was taken as a test case model. What differentiates this approach is the integration of an orthogonal-based local identifiability method into the unscented Kalman filter (UKF, rather than using the more common observability-based method which has inherent limitations. It also introduces a variable step size based on the system uncertainty of the UKF during the sensitivity calculation. This method identified 10 out of 12 parameters as identifiable. These ten parameters were estimated using the UKF, which was run 97 times. Throughout the repetitions the UKF proved to be more consistent than the estimation algorithms used for comparison.

  11. Unscented Kalman filter with parameter identifiability analysis for the estimation of multiple parameters in kinetic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Syed Murtuza; Poskar, C Hart; Junker, Björn H

    2011-10-11

    In systems biology, experimentally measured parameters are not always available, necessitating the use of computationally based parameter estimation. In order to rely on estimated parameters, it is critical to first determine which parameters can be estimated for a given model and measurement set. This is done with parameter identifiability analysis. A kinetic model of the sucrose accumulation in the sugar cane culm tissue developed by Rohwer et al. was taken as a test case model. What differentiates this approach is the integration of an orthogonal-based local identifiability method into the unscented Kalman filter (UKF), rather than using the more common observability-based method which has inherent limitations. It also introduces a variable step size based on the system uncertainty of the UKF during the sensitivity calculation. This method identified 10 out of 12 parameters as identifiable. These ten parameters were estimated using the UKF, which was run 97 times. Throughout the repetitions the UKF proved to be more consistent than the estimation algorithms used for comparison.

  12. Thermodynanmic relations between selected parameters describing unsaturated flow

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Case, C M

    1980-05-01

    The first law of thermodynamics is applied to unsaturated flow by replacing the usual PdV term (P is pressure and V is volume) for chemical system which appears there by psi d theta/sub s/ (phi is matric suction and theta/sub s/ is the degree of saturation). If the assumption is made that hysteretic behavior of the moisture characteristic can be ignored, all the usual thermodynamic relations can be derived in which P is replaced by phi and V is replaced by theta/sub s/ and the various thermodynamic potentials, internal energy, U, entropy S, and so on, are understood to be normalized to unit void volume of the soil being considered. This leads to a thermodynamically derived theoretical expression for the slope of the moisture characteristic in terms of theta/sub s/, temperature, T, and the thermal expansivity of water, ..beta../sub l/. When hysteresis is considered, it is shown that for certain types of laboratory experiments the area enclosed by the main branches of the hysteresis loop in the phi - theta/sub s/ plane, or by extension any closed loop traversed by the system in the phi - theta/sub s/ plane, represents, to the extent that the sample temperature is kept constant during the adsorption-desorption process, the void volume of the sample multiplied by the integral of the temperature and the differential of the entropy generated by carrying out the cyclic adsorption-desorption process. These results when combined with an explicit representation of phi interms of an integral over the poor radius distribution allow an explicit calculation of the entropy change in terms of physical parameters.

  13. Parameters Estimation of Geographically Weighted Ordinal Logistic Regression (GWOLR) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuhdi, Shaifudin; Retno Sari Saputro, Dewi; Widyaningsih, Purnami

    2017-06-01

    A regression model is the representation of relationship between independent variable and dependent variable. The dependent variable has categories used in the logistic regression model to calculate odds on. The logistic regression model for dependent variable has levels in the logistics regression model is ordinal. GWOLR model is an ordinal logistic regression model influenced the geographical location of the observation site. Parameters estimation in the model needed to determine the value of a population based on sample. The purpose of this research is to parameters estimation of GWOLR model using R software. Parameter estimation uses the data amount of dengue fever patients in Semarang City. Observation units used are 144 villages in Semarang City. The results of research get GWOLR model locally for each village and to know probability of number dengue fever patient categories.

  14. Universally sloppy parameter sensitivities in systems biology models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan N Gutenkunst

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative computational models play an increasingly important role in modern biology. Such models typically involve many free parameters, and assigning their values is often a substantial obstacle to model development. Directly measuring in vivo biochemical parameters is difficult, and collectively fitting them to other experimental data often yields large parameter uncertainties. Nevertheless, in earlier work we showed in a growth-factor-signaling model that collective fitting could yield well-constrained predictions, even when it left individual parameters very poorly constrained. We also showed that the model had a "sloppy" spectrum of parameter sensitivities, with eigenvalues roughly evenly distributed over many decades. Here we use a collection of models from the literature to test whether such sloppy spectra are common in systems biology. Strikingly, we find that every model we examine has a sloppy spectrum of sensitivities. We also test several consequences of this sloppiness for building predictive models. In particular, sloppiness suggests that collective fits to even large amounts of ideal time-series data will often leave many parameters poorly constrained. Tests over our model collection are consistent with this suggestion. This difficulty with collective fits may seem to argue for direct parameter measurements, but sloppiness also implies that such measurements must be formidably precise and complete to usefully constrain many model predictions. We confirm this implication in our growth-factor-signaling model. Our results suggest that sloppy sensitivity spectra are universal in systems biology models. The prevalence of sloppiness highlights the power of collective fits and suggests that modelers should focus on predictions rather than on parameters.

  15. Tube-Load Model Parameter Estimation for Monitoring Arterial Hemodynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guanqun eZhang

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available A useful model of the arterial system is the uniform, lossless tube with parametric load. This tube-load model is able to account for wave propagation and reflection (unlike lumped-parameter models such as the Windkessel while being defined by only a few parameters (unlike comprehensive distributed-parameter models. As a result, the parameters may be readily estimated by accurate fitting of the model to available arterial pressure and flow waveforms so as to permit improved monitoring of arterial hemodynamics. In this paper, we review tube-load model parameter estimation techniques that have appeared in the literature for monitoring wave reflection, large artery compliance, pulse transit time, and central aortic pressure. We begin by motivating the use of the tube-load model for parameter estimation. We then describe the tube-load model, its assumptions and validity, and approaches for estimating its parameters. We next summarize the various techniques and their experimental results while highlighting their advantages over conventional techniques. We conclude the review by suggesting future research directions and describing potential applications.

  16. Tube-Load Model Parameter Estimation for Monitoring Arterial Hemodynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Guanqun; Hahn, Jin-Oh; Mukkamala, Ramakrishna

    2011-01-01

    A useful model of the arterial system is the uniform, lossless tube with parametric load. This tube-load model is able to account for wave propagation and reflection (unlike lumped-parameter models such as the Windkessel) while being defined by only a few parameters (unlike comprehensive distributed-parameter models). As a result, the parameters may be readily estimated by accurate fitting of the model to available arterial pressure and flow waveforms so as to permit improved monitoring of arterial hemodynamics. In this paper, we review tube-load model parameter estimation techniques that have appeared in the literature for monitoring wave reflection, large artery compliance, pulse transit time, and central aortic pressure. We begin by motivating the use of the tube-load model for parameter estimation. We then describe the tube-load model, its assumptions and validity, and approaches for estimating its parameters. We next summarize the various techniques and their experimental results while highlighting their advantages over conventional techniques. We conclude the review by suggesting future research directions and describing potential applications. PMID:22053157

  17. Parameter estimation and investigation of a bolted joint model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiryayev, O. V.; Page, S. M.; Pettit, C. L.; Slater, J. C.

    2007-11-01

    Mechanical joints are a primary source of variability in the dynamics of built-up structures. Physical phenomena in the joint are quite complex and therefore too impractical to model at the micro-scale. This motivates the development of lumped parameter joint models with discrete interfaces so that they can be easily implemented in finite element codes. Among the most important considerations in choosing a model for dynamically excited systems is its ability to model energy dissipation. This translates into the need for accurate and reliable methods to measure model parameters and estimate their inherent variability from experiments. The adjusted Iwan model was identified as a promising candidate for representing joint dynamics. Recent research focused on this model has exclusively employed impulse excitation in conjunction with neural networks to identify the model parameters. This paper presents an investigation of an alternative parameter estimation approach for the adjusted Iwan model, which employs data from oscillatory forcing. This approach is shown to produce parameter estimates with precision similar to the impulse excitation method for a range of model parameters.

  18. Modeling and Parameter Estimation of a Small Wind Generation System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos A. Ramírez Gómez

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The modeling and parameter estimation of a small wind generation system is presented in this paper. The system consists of a wind turbine, a permanent magnet synchronous generator, a three phase rectifier, and a direct current load. In order to estimate the parameters wind speed data are registered in a weather station located in the Fraternidad Campus at ITM. Wind speed data were applied to a reference model programed with PSIM software. From that simulation, variables were registered to estimate the parameters. The wind generation system model together with the estimated parameters is an excellent representation of the detailed model, but the estimated model offers a higher flexibility than the programed model in PSIM software.

  19. Parameter estimation of hidden periodic model in random fields

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    何书元

    1999-01-01

    Two-dimensional hidden periodic model is an important model in random fields. The model is used in the field of two-dimensional signal processing, prediction and spectral analysis. A method of estimating the parameters for the model is designed. The strong consistency of the estimators is proved.

  20. Corruption of parameter behavior and regionalization by model and forcing data errors: A Bayesian example using the SNOW17 model

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Minxue; Hogue, Terri S.; Franz, Kristie J.; Margulis, Steven A.; Vrugt, Jasper A.

    2011-07-01

    The current study evaluates the impacts of various sources of uncertainty involved in hydrologic modeling on parameter behavior and regionalization utilizing different Bayesian likelihood functions and the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm. The developed likelihood functions differ in their underlying assumptions and treatment of error sources. We apply the developed method to a snow accumulation and ablation model (National Weather Service SNOW17) and generate parameter ensembles to predict snow water equivalent (SWE). Observational data include precipitation and air temperature forcing along with SWE measurements from 24 sites with diverse hydroclimatic characteristics. A multiple linear regression model is used to construct regionalization relationships between model parameters and site characteristics. Results indicate that model structural uncertainty has the largest influence on SNOW17 parameter behavior. Precipitation uncertainty is the second largest source of uncertainty, showing greater impact at wetter sites. Measurement uncertainty in SWE tends to have little impact on the final model parameters and resulting SWE predictions. Considering all sources of uncertainty, parameters related to air temperature and snowfall fraction exhibit the strongest correlations to site characteristics. Parameters related to the length of the melting period also show high correlation to site characteristics. Finally, model structural uncertainty and precipitation uncertainty dramatically alter parameter regionalization relationships in comparison to cases where only uncertainty in model parameters or output measurements is considered. Our results demonstrate that accurate treatment of forcing, parameter, model structural, and calibration data errors is critical for deriving robust regionalization relationships.

  1. Output feedback robust model predictive control with unmeasurable model parameters and bounded disturbance☆

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Baocang Ding; Hongguang Pan

    2016-01-01

    The output feedback model predictive control (MPC), for a linear parameter varying (LPV) process system including unmeasurable model parameters and disturbance (all lying in known polytopes), is considered. Some previously developed tools, including the norm-bounding technique for relaxing the disturbance-related constraint handling, the dynamic output feedback law, the notion of quadratic boundedness for specifying the closed-loop stability, and the el ipsoidal state estimation error bound for guaranteeing the recursive feasibility, are merged in the control design. Some previous approaches are shown to be the special cases. An example of continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) is given to show the effectiveness of the proposed approaches.

  2. Identification of parameters of discrete-continuous models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cekus, Dawid, E-mail: cekus@imipkm.pcz.pl; Warys, Pawel, E-mail: warys@imipkm.pcz.pl [Institute of Mechanics and Machine Design Foundations, Czestochowa University of Technology, Dabrowskiego 73, 42-201 Czestochowa (Poland)

    2015-03-10

    In the paper, the parameters of a discrete-continuous model have been identified on the basis of experimental investigations and formulation of optimization problem. The discrete-continuous model represents a cantilever stepped Timoshenko beam. The mathematical model has been formulated and solved according to the Lagrange multiplier formalism. Optimization has been based on the genetic algorithm. The presented proceeding’s stages make the identification of any parameters of discrete-continuous systems possible.

  3. Estimating parameters for generalized mass action models with connectivity information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Voit Eberhard O

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Determining the parameters of a mathematical model from quantitative measurements is the main bottleneck of modelling biological systems. Parameter values can be estimated from steady-state data or from dynamic data. The nature of suitable data for these two types of estimation is rather different. For instance, estimations of parameter values in pathway models, such as kinetic orders, rate constants, flux control coefficients or elasticities, from steady-state data are generally based on experiments that measure how a biochemical system responds to small perturbations around the steady state. In contrast, parameter estimation from dynamic data requires time series measurements for all dependent variables. Almost no literature has so far discussed the combined use of both steady-state and transient data for estimating parameter values of biochemical systems. Results In this study we introduce a constrained optimization method for estimating parameter values of biochemical pathway models using steady-state information and transient measurements. The constraints are derived from the flux connectivity relationships of the system at the steady state. Two case studies demonstrate the estimation results with and without flux connectivity constraints. The unconstrained optimal estimates from dynamic data may fit the experiments well, but they do not necessarily maintain the connectivity relationships. As a consequence, individual fluxes may be misrepresented, which may cause problems in later extrapolations. By contrast, the constrained estimation accounting for flux connectivity information reduces this misrepresentation and thereby yields improved model parameters. Conclusion The method combines transient metabolic profiles and steady-state information and leads to the formulation of an inverse parameter estimation task as a constrained optimization problem. Parameter estimation and model selection are simultaneously carried out

  4. Optimization routine for identification of model parameters in soil plasticity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattsson, Hans; Klisinski, Marek; Axelsson, Kennet

    2001-04-01

    The paper presents an optimization routine especially developed for the identification of model parameters in soil plasticity on the basis of different soil tests. Main focus is put on the mathematical aspects and the experience from application of this optimization routine. Mathematically, for the optimization, an objective function and a search strategy are needed. Some alternative expressions for the objective function are formulated. They capture the overall soil behaviour and can be used in a simultaneous optimization against several laboratory tests. Two different search strategies, Rosenbrock's method and the Simplex method, both belonging to the category of direct search methods, are utilized in the routine. Direct search methods have generally proved to be reliable and their relative simplicity make them quite easy to program into workable codes. The Rosenbrock and simplex methods are modified to make the search strategies as efficient and user-friendly as possible for the type of optimization problem addressed here. Since these search strategies are of a heuristic nature, which makes it difficult (or even impossible) to analyse their performance in a theoretical way, representative optimization examples against both simulated experimental results as well as performed triaxial tests are presented to show the efficiency of the optimization routine. From these examples, it has been concluded that the optimization routine is able to locate a minimum with a good accuracy, fast enough to be a very useful tool for identification of model parameters in soil plasticity.

  5. Modeling soil detachment capacity by rill flow using hydraulic parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dongdong; Wang, Zhanli; Shen, Nan; Chen, Hao

    2016-04-01

    The relationship between soil detachment capacity (Dc) by rill flow and hydraulic parameters (e.g., flow velocity, shear stress, unit stream power, stream power, and unit energy) at low flow rates is investigated to establish an accurate experimental model. Experiments are conducted using a 4 × 0.1 m rill hydraulic flume with a constant artificial roughness on the flume bed. The flow rates range from 0.22 × 10-3 m2 s-1 to 0.67 × 10-3 m2 s-1, and the slope gradients vary from 15.8% to 38.4%. Regression analysis indicates that the Dc by rill flow can be predicted using the linear equations of flow velocity, stream power, unit stream power, and unit energy. Dc by rill flow that is fitted to shear stress can be predicted with a power function equation. Predictions based on flow velocity, unit energy, and stream power are powerful, but those based on shear stress, especially on unit stream power, are relatively poor. The prediction based on flow velocity provides the best estimates of Dc by rill flow because of the simplicity and availability of its measurements. Owing to error in measuring flow velocity at low flow rates, the predictive abilities of Dc by rill flow using all hydraulic parameters are relatively lower in this study compared with the results of previous research. The measuring accuracy of experiments for flow velocity should be improved in future research.

  6. Estimation of the input parameters in the Feller neuronal model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ditlevsen, Susanne; Lansky, Petr

    2006-06-01

    The stochastic Feller neuronal model is studied, and estimators of the model input parameters, depending on the firing regime of the process, are derived. Closed expressions for the first two moments of functionals of the first-passage time (FTP) through a constant boundary in the suprathreshold regime are derived, which are used to calculate moment estimators. In the subthreshold regime, the exponentiality of the FTP is utilized to characterize the input parameters. The methods are illustrated on simulated data. Finally, approximations of the first-passage-time moments are suggested, and biological interpretations and comparisons of the parameters in the Feller and the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models are discussed.

  7. An automatic and effective parameter optimization method for model tuning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Zhang

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Physical parameterizations in General Circulation Models (GCMs, having various uncertain parameters, greatly impact model performance and model climate sensitivity. Traditional manual and empirical tuning of these parameters is time consuming and ineffective. In this study, a "three-step" methodology is proposed to automatically and effectively obtain the optimum combination of some key parameters in cloud and convective parameterizations according to a comprehensive objective evaluation metrics. Different from the traditional optimization methods, two extra steps, one determines parameter sensitivity and the other chooses the optimum initial value of sensitive parameters, are introduced before the downhill simplex method to reduce the computational cost and improve the tuning performance. Atmospheric GCM simulation results show that the optimum combination of these parameters determined using this method is able to improve the model's overall performance by 9%. The proposed methodology and software framework can be easily applied to other GCMs to speed up the model development process, especially regarding unavoidable comprehensive parameters tuning during the model development stage.

  8. Optimal parameters for the FFA-Beddoes dynamic stall model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bjoerck, A.; Mert, M. [FFA, The Aeronautical Research Institute of Sweden, Bromma (Sweden); Madsen, H.A. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)

    1999-03-01

    Unsteady aerodynamic effects, like dynamic stall, must be considered in calculation of dynamic forces for wind turbines. Models incorporated in aero-elastic programs are of semi-empirical nature. Resulting aerodynamic forces therefore depend on values used for the semi-empiricial parameters. In this paper a study of finding appropriate parameters to use with the Beddoes-Leishman model is discussed. Minimisation of the `tracking error` between results from 2D wind tunnel tests and simulation with the model is used to find optimum values for the parameters. The resulting optimum parameters show a large variation from case to case. Using these different sets of optimum parameters in the calculation of blade vibrations, give rise to quite different predictions of aerodynamic damping which is discussed. (au)

  9. A New Approach for Parameter Optimization in Land Surface Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Hongqi; GUO Weidong; SUN Guodong; ZHANG Yaocun; FU Congbin

    2011-01-01

    In this study,a new parameter optimization method was used to investigate the expansion of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) in a land surface model (LSM) using long-term enhanced field observations at Tongyn station in Jilin Province,China,combined with a sophisticated LSM (common land model,CoLM).Tongyu station is a reference site of the international Coordinated Energy and Water Cycle Observations Project (CEOP) that has studied semiarid regions that have undergone desertification,salination,and degradation since late 1960s.In this study,three key land-surface parameters,namely,soil color,proportion of sand or clay in soil,and leaf-area index were chosen as parameters to be optimized.Our study comprised three experiments:First,a single-parameter optimization was performed,while the second and third experiments performed triple- and six-parameter optinizations,respectively.Notable improvements in simulating sensible heat flux (SH),latent heat flux (LH),soil temperature (TS),and moisture (MS) at shallow layers were achieved using the optimized parameters.The multiple-parameter optimization experiments performed better than the single-parameter experminent.All results demonstrate that the CNOP method can be used to optimize expanded parameters in an LSM.Moreover,clear mathematical meaning,simple design structure,and rapid computability give this method great potential for further application to parameter optimization in LSMs.

  10. Parameter Estimation for a Computable General Equilibrium Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Robinson, Sherman; Tarp, Finn

    . Second, it permits incorporation of prior information on parameter values. Third, it can be applied in the absence of copious data. Finally, it supplies measures of the capacity of the model to reproduce the historical record and the statistical significance of parameter estimates. The method is applied...

  11. Estimating winter wheat phenological parameters: Implications for crop modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crop parameters, such as the timing of developmental events, are critical for accurate simulation results in crop simulation models, yet uncertainty often exists in determining the parameters. Factors contributing to the uncertainty include: a) sources of variation within a plant (i.e., within diffe...

  12. Retrospective forecast of ETAS model with daily parameters estimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falcone, Giuseppe; Murru, Maura; Console, Rodolfo; Marzocchi, Warner; Zhuang, Jiancang

    2016-04-01

    We present a retrospective ETAS (Epidemic Type of Aftershock Sequence) model based on the daily updating of free parameters during the background, the learning and the test phase of a seismic sequence. The idea was born after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The CSEP (Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability) Center in Japan provided an appropriate testing benchmark for the five 1-day submitted models. Of all the models, only one was able to successfully predict the number of events that really happened. This result was verified using both the real time and the revised catalogs. The main cause of the failure was in the underestimation of the forecasted events, due to model parameters maintained fixed during the test. Moreover, the absence in the learning catalog of an event similar to the magnitude of the mainshock (M9.0), which drastically changed the seismicity in the area, made the learning parameters not suitable to describe the real seismicity. As an example of this methodological development we show the evolution of the model parameters during the last two strong seismic sequences in Italy: the 2009 L'Aquila and the 2012 Reggio Emilia episodes. The achievement of the model with daily updated parameters is compared with that of same model where the parameters remain fixed during the test time.

  13. Variational methods to estimate terrestrial ecosystem model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delahaies, Sylvain; Roulstone, Ian

    2016-04-01

    Carbon is at the basis of the chemistry of life. Its ubiquity in the Earth system is the result of complex recycling processes. Present in the atmosphere in the form of carbon dioxide it is adsorbed by marine and terrestrial ecosystems and stored within living biomass and decaying organic matter. Then soil chemistry and a non negligible amount of time transform the dead matter into fossil fuels. Throughout this cycle, carbon dioxide is released in the atmosphere through respiration and combustion of fossils fuels. Model-data fusion techniques allow us to combine our understanding of these complex processes with an ever-growing amount of observational data to help improving models and predictions. The data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model is a simple box model simulating the carbon budget allocation for terrestrial ecosystems. Over the last decade several studies have demonstrated the relative merit of various inverse modelling strategies (MCMC, ENKF, 4DVAR) to estimate model parameters and initial carbon stocks for DALEC and to quantify the uncertainty in the predictions. Despite its simplicity, DALEC represents the basic processes at the heart of more sophisticated models of the carbon cycle. Using adjoint based methods we study inverse problems for DALEC with various data streams (8 days MODIS LAI, monthly MODIS LAI, NEE). The framework of constraint optimization allows us to incorporate ecological common sense into the variational framework. We use resolution matrices to study the nature of the inverse problems and to obtain data importance and information content for the different type of data. We study how varying the time step affect the solutions, and we show how "spin up" naturally improves the conditioning of the inverse problems.

  14. Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkel, Brian J.

    2011-01-01

    We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of population growth, specifically logistic growth models and two-species competition models. We discuss student-evolved strategies and offer "Mathematica" code for a gradient search approach. We use historical (1930s) data from microbial studies of the Russian biologist,…

  15. Dynamic Modeling and Parameter Identification of Power Systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    @@ The generator, the excitation system, the steam turbine and speed governor, and the load are the so called four key models of power systems. Mathematical modeling and parameter identification for the four key models are of great importance as the basis for designing, operating, and analyzing power systems.

  16. Dynamic Load Model using PSO-Based Parameter Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taoka, Hisao; Matsuki, Junya; Tomoda, Michiya; Hayashi, Yasuhiro; Yamagishi, Yoshio; Kanao, Norikazu

    This paper presents a new method for estimating unknown parameters of dynamic load model as a parallel composite of a constant impedance load and an induction motor behind a series constant reactance. An adequate dynamic load model is essential for evaluating power system stability, and this model can represent the behavior of actual load by using appropriate parameters. However, the problem of this model is that a lot of parameters are necessary and it is not easy to estimate a lot of unknown parameters. We propose an estimating method based on Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) which is a non-linear optimization method by using the data of voltage, active power and reactive power measured at voltage sag.

  17. Parameter Estimation for the Thurstone Case III Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackay, David B.; Chaiy, Seoil

    1982-01-01

    The ability of three estimation criteria to recover parameters of the Thurstone Case V and Case III models from comparative judgment data was investigated via Monte Carlo techniques. Significant differences in recovery are shown to exist. (Author/JKS)

  18. Evaluation of the impact of adjusting the angle of the axis of a wind turbine rotor relative to the flow of air stream on operating parameters of a wind turbine model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gumuła Stanisław

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to determine the effect of regulation of an axis of a wind turbine rotor to the direction of wind on the volume of energy produced by wind turbines. A role of an optimal setting of the blades of the wind turbine rotor was specified, as well. According to the measurements, changes in the tilt angle of the axis of the wind turbine rotor in relation to the air stream flow direction cause changes in the use of wind energy. The publication explores the effects of the operating conditions of wind turbines on the possibility of using wind energy. A range of factors affect the operation of the wind turbine, and thus the volume of energy produced by the plant. The impact of design parameters of wind power plant, climatic factors or associated with the location seismic challenges can be shown from among them. One of the parameters has proved to be change settings of the rotor axis in relation to direction of flow of the air stream. Studies have shown that the accurate determination of the optimum angle of the axis of the rotor with respect to flow of air stream strongly influences the characteristics of the wind turbine.

  19. Optimal Parameter and Uncertainty Estimation of a Land Surface Model: Sensitivity to Parameter Ranges and Model Complexities

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Youlong XIA; Zong-Liang YANG; Paul L. STOFFA; Mrinal K. SEN

    2005-01-01

    Most previous land-surface model calibration studies have defined global ranges for their parameters to search for optimal parameter sets. Little work has been conducted to study the impacts of realistic versus global ranges as well as model complexities on the calibration and uncertainty estimates. The primary purpose of this paper is to investigate these impacts by employing Bayesian Stochastic Inversion (BSI)to the Chameleon Surface Model (CHASM). The CHASM was designed to explore the general aspects of land-surface energy balance representation within a common modeling framework that can be run from a simple energy balance formulation to a complex mosaic type structure. The BSI is an uncertainty estimation technique based on Bayes theorem, importance sampling, and very fast simulated annealing.The model forcing data and surface flux data were collected at seven sites representing a wide range of climate and vegetation conditions. For each site, four experiments were performed with simple and complex CHASM formulations as well as realistic and global parameter ranges. Twenty eight experiments were conducted and 50 000 parameter sets were used for each run. The results show that the use of global and realistic ranges gives similar simulations for both modes for most sites, but the global ranges tend to produce some unreasonable optimal parameter values. Comparison of simple and complex modes shows that the simple mode has more parameters with unreasonable optimal values. Use of parameter ranges and model complexities have significant impacts on frequency distribution of parameters, marginal posterior probability density functions, and estimates of uncertainty of simulated sensible and latent heat fluxes.Comparison between model complexity and parameter ranges shows that the former has more significant impacts on parameter and uncertainty estimations.

  20. Estimation of Model and Parameter Uncertainty For A Distributed Rainfall-runoff Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engeland, K.

    The distributed rainfall-runoff model Ecomag is applied as a regional model for nine catchments in the NOPEX area in Sweden. Ecomag calculates streamflow on a daily time resolution. The posterior distribution of the model parameters is conditioned on the observed streamflow in all nine catchments, and calculated using Bayesian statistics. The distribution is estimated by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The Bayesian method requires a definition of the likelihood of the parameters. Two alter- native formulations are used. The first formulation is a subjectively chosen objective function describing the goodness of fit between the simulated and observed streamflow as it is used in the GLUE framework. The second formulation is to use a more statis- tically correct likelihood function that describes the simulation errors. The simulation error is defined as the difference between log-transformed observed and simulated streamflows. A statistical model for the simulation errors is constructed. Some param- eters are dependent on the catchment, while others depend on climate. The statistical and the hydrological parameters are estimated simultaneously. Confidence intervals, due to the uncertainty of the Ecomag parameters, for the simulated streamflow are compared for the two likelihood functions. Confidence intervals based on the statis- tical model for the simulation errors are also calculated. The results indicate that the parameter uncertainty depends on the formulation of the likelihood function. The sub- jectively chosen likelihood function gives relatively wide confidence intervals whereas the 'statistical' likelihood function gives more narrow confidence intervals. The statis- tical model for the simulation errors indicates that the structural errors of the model are as least as important as the parameter uncertainty.

  1. Combined Estimation of Hydrogeologic Conceptual Model and Parameter Uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyer, Philip D.; Ye, Ming; Neuman, Shlomo P.; Cantrell, Kirk J.

    2004-03-01

    The objective of the research described in this report is the development and application of a methodology for comprehensively assessing the hydrogeologic uncertainties involved in dose assessment, including uncertainties associated with conceptual models, parameters, and scenarios. This report describes and applies a statistical method to quantitatively estimate the combined uncertainty in model predictions arising from conceptual model and parameter uncertainties. The method relies on model averaging to combine the predictions of a set of alternative models. Implementation is driven by the available data. When there is minimal site-specific data the method can be carried out with prior parameter estimates based on generic data and subjective prior model probabilities. For sites with observations of system behavior (and optionally data characterizing model parameters), the method uses model calibration to update the prior parameter estimates and model probabilities based on the correspondence between model predictions and site observations. The set of model alternatives can contain both simplified and complex models, with the requirement that all models be based on the same set of data. The method was applied to the geostatistical modeling of air permeability at a fractured rock site. Seven alternative variogram models of log air permeability were considered to represent data from single-hole pneumatic injection tests in six boreholes at the site. Unbiased maximum likelihood estimates of variogram and drift parameters were obtained for each model. Standard information criteria provided an ambiguous ranking of the models, which would not justify selecting one of them and discarding all others as is commonly done in practice. Instead, some of the models were eliminated based on their negligibly small updated probabilities and the rest were used to project the measured log permeabilities by kriging onto a rock volume containing the six boreholes. These four

  2. Parameter Estimation for Groundwater Models under Uncertain Irrigation Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demissie, Yonas; Valocchi, Albert; Cai, Ximing; Brozovic, Nicholas; Senay, Gabriel; Gebremichael, Mekonnen

    2015-01-01

    The success of modeling groundwater is strongly influenced by the accuracy of the model parameters that are used to characterize the subsurface system. However, the presence of uncertainty and possibly bias in groundwater model source/sink terms may lead to biased estimates of model parameters and model predictions when the standard regression-based inverse modeling techniques are used. This study first quantifies the levels of bias in groundwater model parameters and predictions due to the presence of errors in irrigation data. Then, a new inverse modeling technique called input uncertainty weighted least-squares (IUWLS) is presented for unbiased estimation of the parameters when pumping and other source/sink data are uncertain. The approach uses the concept of generalized least-squares method with the weight of the objective function depending on the level of pumping uncertainty and iteratively adjusted during the parameter optimization process. We have conducted both analytical and numerical experiments, using irrigation pumping data from the Republican River Basin in Nebraska, to evaluate the performance of ordinary least-squares (OLS) and IUWLS calibration methods under different levels of uncertainty of irrigation data and calibration conditions. The result from the OLS method shows the presence of statistically significant (p irrigation pumping uncertainties during the calibration procedures, the proposed IUWLS is able to minimize the bias effectively without adding significant computational burden to the calibration processes.

  3. Parameter estimation for groundwater models under uncertain irrigation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demissie, Yonas; Valocchi, Albert J.; Cai, Ximing; Brozovic, Nicholas; Senay, Gabriel; Gebremichael, Mekonnen

    2015-01-01

    The success of modeling groundwater is strongly influenced by the accuracy of the model parameters that are used to characterize the subsurface system. However, the presence of uncertainty and possibly bias in groundwater model source/sink terms may lead to biased estimates of model parameters and model predictions when the standard regression-based inverse modeling techniques are used. This study first quantifies the levels of bias in groundwater model parameters and predictions due to the presence of errors in irrigation data. Then, a new inverse modeling technique called input uncertainty weighted least-squares (IUWLS) is presented for unbiased estimation of the parameters when pumping and other source/sink data are uncertain. The approach uses the concept of generalized least-squares method with the weight of the objective function depending on the level of pumping uncertainty and iteratively adjusted during the parameter optimization process. We have conducted both analytical and numerical experiments, using irrigation pumping data from the Republican River Basin in Nebraska, to evaluate the performance of ordinary least-squares (OLS) and IUWLS calibration methods under different levels of uncertainty of irrigation data and calibration conditions. The result from the OLS method shows the presence of statistically significant (p irrigation pumping uncertainties during the calibration procedures, the proposed IUWLS is able to minimize the bias effectively without adding significant computational burden to the calibration processes.

  4. Parameter estimation in stochastic rainfall-runoff models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Harpa; Madsen, Henrik; Palsson, Olafur Petur

    2006-01-01

    the parameters, including the noise terms. The parameter estimation method is a maximum likelihood method (ML) where the likelihood function is evaluated using a Kalman filter technique. The ML method estimates the parameters in a prediction error settings, i.e. the sum of squared prediction error is minimized....... For a comparison the parameters are also estimated by an output error method, where the sum of squared simulation error is minimized. The former methodology is optimal for short-term prediction whereas the latter is optimal for simulations. Hence, depending on the purpose it is possible to select whether...... the parameter values are optimal for simulation or prediction. The data originates from Iceland and the model is designed for Icelandic conditions, including a snow routine for mountainous areas. The model demands only two input data series, precipitation and temperature and one output data series...

  5. Transformations among CE–CVM model parameters for multicomponent systems

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    B Nageswara Sarma; Shrikant Lele

    2005-06-01

    In the development of thermodynamic databases for multicomponent systems using the cluster expansion–cluster variation methods, we need to have a consistent procedure for expressing the model parameters (CECs) of a higher order system in terms of those of the lower order subsystems and to an independent set of parameters which exclusively represent interactions of the higher order systems. Such a procedure is presented in detail in this communication. Furthermore, the details of transformations required to express the model parameters in one basis from those defined in another basis for the same system are also presented.

  6. SPOTting Model Parameters Using a Ready-Made Python Package.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houska, Tobias; Kraft, Philipp; Chamorro-Chavez, Alejandro; Breuer, Lutz

    2015-01-01

    The choice for specific parameter estimation methods is often more dependent on its availability than its performance. We developed SPOTPY (Statistical Parameter Optimization Tool), an open source python package containing a comprehensive set of methods typically used to calibrate, analyze and optimize parameters for a wide range of ecological models. SPOTPY currently contains eight widely used algorithms, 11 objective functions, and can sample from eight parameter distributions. SPOTPY has a model-independent structure and can be run in parallel from the workstation to large computation clusters using the Message Passing Interface (MPI). We tested SPOTPY in five different case studies to parameterize the Rosenbrock, Griewank and Ackley functions, a one-dimensional physically based soil moisture routine, where we searched for parameters of the van Genuchten-Mualem function and a calibration of a biogeochemistry model with different objective functions. The case studies reveal that the implemented SPOTPY methods can be used for any model with just a minimal amount of code for maximal power of parameter optimization. They further show the benefit of having one package at hand that includes number of well performing parameter search methods, since not every case study can be solved sufficiently with every algorithm or every objective function.

  7. SPOTting Model Parameters Using a Ready-Made Python Package.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Houska

    Full Text Available The choice for specific parameter estimation methods is often more dependent on its availability than its performance. We developed SPOTPY (Statistical Parameter Optimization Tool, an open source python package containing a comprehensive set of methods typically used to calibrate, analyze and optimize parameters for a wide range of ecological models. SPOTPY currently contains eight widely used algorithms, 11 objective functions, and can sample from eight parameter distributions. SPOTPY has a model-independent structure and can be run in parallel from the workstation to large computation clusters using the Message Passing Interface (MPI. We tested SPOTPY in five different case studies to parameterize the Rosenbrock, Griewank and Ackley functions, a one-dimensional physically based soil moisture routine, where we searched for parameters of the van Genuchten-Mualem function and a calibration of a biogeochemistry model with different objective functions. The case studies reveal that the implemented SPOTPY methods can be used for any model with just a minimal amount of code for maximal power of parameter optimization. They further show the benefit of having one package at hand that includes number of well performing parameter search methods, since not every case study can be solved sufficiently with every algorithm or every objective function.

  8. Numerical modeling of piezoelectric transducers using physical parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cappon, Hans; Keesman, Karel J

    2012-05-01

    Design of ultrasonic equipment is frequently facilitated with numerical models. These numerical models, however, need a calibration step, because usually not all characteristics of the materials used are known. Characterization of material properties combined with numerical simulations and experimental data can be used to acquire valid estimates of the material parameters. In our design application, a finite element (FE) model of an ultrasonic particle separator, driven by an ultrasonic transducer in thickness mode, is required. A limited set of material parameters for the piezoelectric transducer were obtained from the manufacturer, thus preserving prior physical knowledge to a large extent. The remaining unknown parameters were estimated from impedance analysis with a simple experimental setup combined with a numerical optimization routine using 2-D and 3-D FE models. Thus, a full set of physically interpretable material parameters was obtained for our specific purpose. The approach provides adequate accuracy of the estimates of the material parameters, near 1%. These parameter estimates will subsequently be applied in future design simulations, without the need to go through an entire series of characterization experiments. Finally, a sensitivity study showed that small variations of 1% in the main parameters caused changes near 1% in the eigenfrequency, but changes up to 7% in the admittance peak, thus influencing the efficiency of the system. Temperature will already cause these small variations in response; thus, a frequency control unit is required when actually manufacturing an efficient ultrasonic separation system.

  9. Parameter estimation and model selection in computational biology.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriele Lillacci

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available A central challenge in computational modeling of biological systems is the determination of the model parameters. Typically, only a fraction of the parameters (such as kinetic rate constants are experimentally measured, while the rest are often fitted. The fitting process is usually based on experimental time course measurements of observables, which are used to assign parameter values that minimize some measure of the error between these measurements and the corresponding model prediction. The measurements, which can come from immunoblotting assays, fluorescent markers, etc., tend to be very noisy and taken at a limited number of time points. In this work we present a new approach to the problem of parameter selection of biological models. We show how one can use a dynamic recursive estimator, known as extended Kalman filter, to arrive at estimates of the model parameters. The proposed method follows. First, we use a variation of the Kalman filter that is particularly well suited to biological applications to obtain a first guess for the unknown parameters. Secondly, we employ an a posteriori identifiability test to check the reliability of the estimates. Finally, we solve an optimization problem to refine the first guess in case it should not be accurate enough. The final estimates are guaranteed to be statistically consistent with the measurements. Furthermore, we show how the same tools can be used to discriminate among alternate models of the same biological process. We demonstrate these ideas by applying our methods to two examples, namely a model of the heat shock response in E. coli, and a model of a synthetic gene regulation system. The methods presented are quite general and may be applied to a wide class of biological systems where noisy measurements are used for parameter estimation or model selection.

  10. Uniqueness, scale, and resolution issues in groundwater model parameter identification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tian-chyi J. Yeh

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper first visits uniqueness, scale, and resolution issues in groundwater flow forward modeling problems. It then makes the point that non-unique solutions to groundwater flow inverse problems arise from a lack of information necessary to make the problems well defined. Subsequently, it presents the necessary conditions for a well-defined inverse problem. They are full specifications of (1 flux boundaries and sources/sinks, and (2 heads everywhere in the domain at at least three times (one of which is t = 0, with head change everywhere at those times must being nonzero for transient flow. Numerical experiments are presented to corroborate the fact that, once the necessary conditions are met, the inverse problem has a unique solution. We also demonstrate that measurement noise, instability, and sensitivity are issues related to solution techniques rather than the inverse problems themselves. In addition, we show that a mathematically well-defined inverse problem, based on an equivalent homogeneous or a layered conceptual model, may yield physically incorrect and scenario-dependent parameter values. These issues are attributed to inconsistency between the scale of the head observed and that implied by these models. Such issues can be reduced only if a sufficiently large number of observation wells are used in the equivalent homogeneous domain or each layer. With a large number of wells, we then show that increase in parameterization can lead to a higher-resolution depiction of heterogeneity if an appropriate inverse methodology is used. Furthermore, we illustrate that, using the same number of wells, a highly parameterized model in conjunction with hydraulic tomography can yield better characterization of the aquifer and minimize the scale and scenario-dependent problems. Lastly, benefits of the highly parameterized model and hydraulic tomography are tested according to their ability to improve predictions of aquifer responses induced by

  11. An Effective Parameter Screening Strategy for High Dimensional Watershed Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khare, Y. P.; Martinez, C. J.; Munoz-Carpena, R.

    2014-12-01

    Watershed simulation models can assess the impacts of natural and anthropogenic disturbances on natural systems. These models have become important tools for tackling a range of water resources problems through their implementation in the formulation and evaluation of Best Management Practices, Total Maximum Daily Loads, and Basin Management Action Plans. For accurate applications of watershed models they need to be thoroughly evaluated through global uncertainty and sensitivity analyses (UA/SA). However, due to the high dimensionality of these models such evaluation becomes extremely time- and resource-consuming. Parameter screening, the qualitative separation of important parameters, has been suggested as an essential step before applying rigorous evaluation techniques such as the Sobol' and Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST) methods in the UA/SA framework. The method of elementary effects (EE) (Morris, 1991) is one of the most widely used screening methodologies. Some of the common parameter sampling strategies for EE, e.g. Optimized Trajectories [OT] (Campolongo et al., 2007) and Modified Optimized Trajectories [MOT] (Ruano et al., 2012), suffer from inconsistencies in the generated parameter distributions, infeasible sample generation time, etc. In this work, we have formulated a new parameter sampling strategy - Sampling for Uniformity (SU) - for parameter screening which is based on the principles of the uniformity of the generated parameter distributions and the spread of the parameter sample. A rigorous multi-criteria evaluation (time, distribution, spread and screening efficiency) of OT, MOT, and SU indicated that SU is superior to other sampling strategies. Comparison of the EE-based parameter importance rankings with those of Sobol' helped to quantify the qualitativeness of the EE parameter screening approach, reinforcing the fact that one should use EE only to reduce the resource burden required by FAST/Sobol' analyses but not to replace it.

  12. A parameter model for dredge plume sediment source terms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decrop, Boudewijn; De Mulder, Tom; Toorman, Erik; Sas, Marc

    2017-01-01

    , which is not available in all situations. For example, to allow correct representation of overflow plume dispersion in a real-time forecasting model, a fast assessment of the near-field behaviour is needed. For this reason, a semi-analytical parameter model has been developed that reproduces the near-field sediment dispersion obtained with the CFD model in a relatively accurate way. In this paper, this so-called grey-box model is presented.

  13. Minor hysteresis loops model based on exponential parameters scaling of the modified Jiles-Atherton model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamimid, M., E-mail: Hamimid_mourad@hotmail.com [Laboratoire de modelisation des systemes energetiques LMSE, Universite de Biskra, BP 145, 07000 Biskra (Algeria); Mimoune, S.M., E-mail: s.m.mimoune@mselab.org [Laboratoire de modelisation des systemes energetiques LMSE, Universite de Biskra, BP 145, 07000 Biskra (Algeria); Feliachi, M., E-mail: mouloud.feliachi@univ-nantes.fr [IREENA-IUT, CRTT, 37 Boulevard de l' Universite, BP 406, 44602 Saint Nazaire Cedex (France)

    2012-07-01

    In this present work, the minor hysteresis loops model based on parameters scaling of the modified Jiles-Atherton model is evaluated by using judicious expressions. These expressions give the minor hysteresis loops parameters as a function of the major hysteresis loop ones. They have exponential form and are obtained by parameters identification using the stochastic optimization method 'simulated annealing'. The main parameters influencing the data fitting are three parameters, the pinning parameter k, the mean filed parameter {alpha} and the parameter which characterizes the shape of anhysteretic magnetization curve a. To validate this model, calculated minor hysteresis loops are compared with measured ones and good agreements are obtained.

  14. MODELING OF FUEL SPRAY CHARACTERISTICS AND DIESEL COMBUSTION CHAMBER PARAMETERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. M. Kukharonak

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The computer model for coordination of fuel spray characteristics with diesel combustion chamber parameters has been created in the paper.  The model allows to observe fuel sprays  develоpment in diesel cylinder at any moment of injection, to calculate characteristics of fuel sprays with due account of a shape and dimensions of a combustion chamber, timely to change fuel injection characteristics and supercharging parameters, shape and dimensions of a combustion chamber. Moreover the computer model permits to determine parameters of holes in an injector nozzle that provides the required fuel sprays characteristics at the stage of designing a diesel engine. Combustion chamber parameters for 4ЧН11/12.5 diesel engine have been determined in the paper.

  15. Mathematically Modeling Parameters Influencing Surface Roughness in CNC Milling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Engin Nas

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, steel AISI 1050 is subjected to process of face milling in CNC milling machine and such parameters as cutting speed, feed rate, cutting tip, depth of cut influencing the surface roughness are investigated experimentally. Four different experiments are conducted by creating different combinations for parameters. In conducted experiments, cutting tools, which are coated by PVD method used in forcing steel and spheroidal graphite cast iron are used. Surface roughness values, which are obtained by using specified parameters with cutting tools, are measured and correlation between measured surface roughness values and parameters is modeled mathematically by using curve fitting algorithm. Mathematical models are evaluated according to coefficients of determination (R2 and the most ideal one is suggested for theoretical works. Mathematical models, which are proposed for each experiment, are estipulated.

  16. Relative survival multistate Markov model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huszti, Ella; Abrahamowicz, Michal; Alioum, Ahmadou; Binquet, Christine; Quantin, Catherine

    2012-02-10

    Prognostic studies often have to deal with two important challenges: (i) separating effects of predictions on different 'competing' events and (ii) uncertainty about cause of death. Multistate Markov models permit multivariable analyses of competing risks of, for example, mortality versus disease recurrence. On the other hand, relative survival methods help estimate disease-specific mortality risks even in the absence of data on causes of death. In this paper, we propose a new Markov relative survival (MRS) model that attempts to combine these two methodologies. Our MRS model extends the existing multistate Markov piecewise constant intensities model to relative survival modeling. The intensity of transitions leading to death in the MRS model is modeled as the sum of an estimable excess hazard of mortality from the disease of interest and an 'offset' defined as the expected hazard of all-cause 'natural' mortality obtained from relevant life-tables. We evaluate the new MRS model through simulations, with a design based on registry-based prognostic studies of colon cancer. Simulation results show almost unbiased estimates of prognostic factor effects for the MRS model. We also applied the new MRS model to reassess the role of prognostic factors for mortality in a study of colorectal cancer. The MRS model considerably reduces the bias observed with the conventional Markov model that does not permit accounting for unknown causes of death, especially if the 'true' effects of a prognostic factor on the two types of mortality differ substantially.

  17. Quantifying Key Climate Parameter Uncertainties Using an Earth System Model with a Dynamic 3D Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, R.; Sriver, R. L.; Goes, M. P.; Urban, N.; Matthews, D.; Haran, M.; Keller, K.

    2011-12-01

    Climate projections hinge critically on uncertain climate model parameters such as climate sensitivity, vertical ocean diffusivity and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol forcings. Climate sensitivity is defined as the equilibrium global mean temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Vertical ocean diffusivity parameterizes sub-grid scale ocean vertical mixing processes. These parameters are typically estimated using Intermediate Complexity Earth System Models (EMICs) that lack a full 3D representation of the oceans, thereby neglecting the effects of mixing on ocean dynamics and meridional overturning. We improve on these studies by employing an EMIC with a dynamic 3D ocean model to estimate these parameters. We carry out historical climate simulations with the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) varying parameters that affect climate sensitivity, vertical ocean mixing, and effects of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols. We use a Bayesian approach whereby the likelihood of each parameter combination depends on how well the model simulates surface air temperature and upper ocean heat content. We use a Gaussian process emulator to interpolate the model output to an arbitrary parameter setting. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to estimate the posterior probability distribution function (pdf) of these parameters. We explore the sensitivity of the results to prior assumptions about the parameters. In addition, we estimate the relative skill of different observations to constrain the parameters. We quantify the uncertainty in parameter estimates stemming from climate variability, model and observational errors. We explore the sensitivity of key decision-relevant climate projections to these parameters. We find that climate sensitivity and vertical ocean diffusivity estimates are consistent with previously published results. The climate sensitivity pdf is strongly affected by the prior assumptions, and by the scaling

  18. Exploring Factor Model Parameters across Continuous Variables with Local Structural Equation Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hildebrandt, Andrea; Lüdtke, Oliver; Robitzsch, Alexander; Sommer, Christopher; Wilhelm, Oliver

    2016-01-01

    Using an empirical data set, we investigated variation in factor model parameters across a continuous moderator variable and demonstrated three modeling approaches: multiple-group mean and covariance structure (MGMCS) analyses, local structural equation modeling (LSEM), and moderated factor analysis (MFA). We focused on how to study variation in factor model parameters as a function of continuous variables such as age, socioeconomic status, ability levels, acculturation, and so forth. Specifically, we formalized the LSEM approach in detail as compared with previous work and investigated its statistical properties with an analytical derivation and a simulation study. We also provide code for the easy implementation of LSEM. The illustration of methods was based on cross-sectional cognitive ability data from individuals ranging in age from 4 to 23 years. Variations in factor loadings across age were examined with regard to the age differentiation hypothesis. LSEM and MFA converged with respect to the conclusions. When there was a broad age range within groups and varying relations between the indicator variables and the common factor across age, MGMCS produced distorted parameter estimates. We discuss the pros of LSEM compared with MFA and recommend using the two tools as complementary approaches for investigating moderation in factor model parameters.

  19. Weibull Parameters Estimation Based on Physics of Failure Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kostandyan, Erik; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2012-01-01

    Reliability estimation procedures are discussed for the example of fatigue development in solder joints using a physics of failure model. The accumulated damage is estimated based on a physics of failure model, the Rainflow counting algorithm and the Miner’s rule. A threshold model is used...... distribution. Methods from structural reliability analysis are used to model the uncertainties and to assess the reliability for fatigue failure. Maximum Likelihood and Least Square estimation techniques are used to estimate fatigue life distribution parameters....

  20. MODELING PARAMETERS OF ARC OF ELECTRIC ARC FURNACE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R.N. Khrestin

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The aim is to build a mathematical model of the electric arc of arc furnace (EAF. The model should clearly show the relationship between the main parameters of the arc. These parameters determine the properties of the arc and the possibility of optimization of melting mode. Methodology. We have built a fairly simple model of the arc, which satisfies the above requirements. The model is designed for the analysis of electromagnetic processes arc of varying length. We have compared the results obtained when testing the model with the results obtained on actual furnaces. Results. During melting in real chipboard under the influence of changes in temperature changes its properties arc plasma. The proposed model takes into account these changes. Adjusting the length of the arc is the main way to regulate the mode of smelting chipboard. The arc length is controlled by the movement of the drive electrode. The model reflects the dynamic changes in the parameters of the arc when changing her length. We got the dynamic current-voltage characteristics (CVC of the arc for the different stages of melting. We got the arc voltage waveform and identified criteria by which possible identified stage of smelting. Originality. In contrast to the previously known models, this model clearly shows the relationship between the main parameters of the arc EAF: arc voltage Ud, amperage arc id and length arc d. Comparison of the simulation results and experimental data obtained from real particleboard showed the adequacy of the constructed model. It was found that character of change of magnitude Md, helps determine the stage of melting. Practical value. It turned out that the model can be used to simulate smelting in EAF any capacity. Thus, when designing the system of control mechanism for moving the electrode, the model takes into account changes in the parameters of the arc and it can significantly reduce electrode material consumption and energy consumption

  1. Severity of meningococcal infections is related to anthropometrical parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez, N; Regairaz, L; Bustamante, J; Osimani, N; Bergna, D; Morales, J; Agosti, M R; Gonzalez‐Ayala, S; Peltzer, C; Rodrigo, A

    2007-01-01

    Background Invasive meningococcal infections remain an important cause of death in children. In addition, malnutrition has been classically associated with increased severity of infectious diseases. However, in our experience lethal meningococcaemia in clinically malnourished children is extremely rare. Our purpose was to determine whether there is an association between nutritional status and outcome in children with invasive meningococcal infection. Methods We carried out an observational study and prospectively determined anthropometrical parameters in 127 children aged 1 month to 4 years with invasive meningococcal infection seen in our inpatient facilities from August 1999 to May 2004. Severity and survival were the clinical end points analysed. Results Children with severe disease had higher weight for age (1.02 vs −0.19) and height for age (1.12 vs −0.58) z scores than those with non‐severe disease. Non‐survivors had higher weight for age (0.90 vs −0.16) and height for age (0.73 vs −0.57) z scores than survivors. Clinical and biological variables usually accepted as predictors of high mortality or severity in patients with meningococcal infection were not significantly associated with weight for age and height for age z scores. Conclusion In the present prospective series of children with invasive meningococcal disease, severity and death were linked to anthropometrical parameters and seemed to be associated with a very good nutritional status, which confirmed our previous uncontrolled observations. PMID:17488761

  2. Global-scale regionalization of hydrologic model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Hylke E.; van Dijk, Albert I. J. M.; de Roo, Ad; Miralles, Diego G.; McVicar, Tim R.; Schellekens, Jaap; Bruijnzeel, L. Adrian

    2016-05-01

    Current state-of-the-art models typically applied at continental to global scales (hereafter called macroscale) tend to use a priori parameters, resulting in suboptimal streamflow (Q) simulation. For the first time, a scheme for regionalization of model parameters at the global scale was developed. We used data from a diverse set of 1787 small-to-medium sized catchments (10-10,000 km2) and the simple conceptual HBV model to set up and test the scheme. Each catchment was calibrated against observed daily Q, after which 674 catchments with high calibration and validation scores, and thus presumably good-quality observed Q and forcing data, were selected to serve as donor catchments. The calibrated parameter sets for the donors were subsequently transferred to 0.5° grid cells with similar climatic and physiographic characteristics, resulting in parameter maps for HBV with global coverage. For each grid cell, we used the 10 most similar donor catchments, rather than the single most similar donor, and averaged the resulting simulated Q, which enhanced model performance. The 1113 catchments not used as donors were used to independently evaluate the scheme. The regionalized parameters outperformed spatially uniform (i.e., averaged calibrated) parameters for 79% of the evaluation catchments. Substantial improvements were evident for all major Köppen-Geiger climate types and even for evaluation catchments > 5000 km distant from the donors. The median improvement was about half of the performance increase achieved through calibration. HBV with regionalized parameters outperformed nine state-of-the-art macroscale models, suggesting these might also benefit from the new regionalization scheme. The produced HBV parameter maps including ancillary data are available via www.gloh2o.org.

  3. Bayesian parameter estimation for nonlinear modelling of biological pathways

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghasemi Omid

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The availability of temporal measurements on biological experiments has significantly promoted research areas in systems biology. To gain insight into the interaction and regulation of biological systems, mathematical frameworks such as ordinary differential equations have been widely applied to model biological pathways and interpret the temporal data. Hill equations are the preferred formats to represent the reaction rate in differential equation frameworks, due to their simple structures and their capabilities for easy fitting to saturated experimental measurements. However, Hill equations are highly nonlinearly parameterized functions, and parameters in these functions cannot be measured easily. Additionally, because of its high nonlinearity, adaptive parameter estimation algorithms developed for linear parameterized differential equations cannot be applied. Therefore, parameter estimation in nonlinearly parameterized differential equation models for biological pathways is both challenging and rewarding. In this study, we propose a Bayesian parameter estimation algorithm to estimate parameters in nonlinear mathematical models for biological pathways using time series data. Results We used the Runge-Kutta method to transform differential equations to difference equations assuming a known structure of the differential equations. This transformation allowed us to generate predictions dependent on previous states and to apply a Bayesian approach, namely, the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC method. We applied this approach to the biological pathways involved in the left ventricle (LV response to myocardial infarction (MI and verified our algorithm by estimating two parameters in a Hill equation embedded in the nonlinear model. We further evaluated our estimation performance with different parameter settings and signal to noise ratios. Our results demonstrated the effectiveness of the algorithm for both linearly and nonlinearly

  4. Cosmological models in general relativity

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    B B Paul

    2003-12-01

    LRS Bianchi type-I space-time filled with perfect fluid is considered here with deceleration parameter as variable. The metric potentials and are functions of as well as . Assuming '/=(), where prime denotes differentiation with respect to , it was found that =('/) and =(), where =() and is the scale factor which is a function of only. The value of Hubble’s constant 0 was found to be less than half for non-flat model and is equal to 1.3 for a flat model.

  5. Mirror symmetry for two-parameter models, 1

    CERN Document Server

    Candelas, Philip; Font, A; Katz, S; Morrison, Douglas Robert Ogston; Candelas, Philip; Ossa, Xenia de la; Font, Anamaria; Katz, Sheldon; Morrison, David R.

    1994-01-01

    We study, by means of mirror symmetry, the quantum geometry of the K\\"ahler-class parameters of a number of Calabi-Yau manifolds that have $b_{11}=2$. Our main interest lies in the structure of the moduli space and in the loci corresponding to singular models. This structure is considerably richer when there are two parameters than in the various one-parameter models that have been studied hitherto. We describe the intrinsic structure of the point in the (compactification of the) moduli space that corresponds to the large complex structure or classical limit. The instanton expansions are of interest owing to the fact that some of the instantons belong to families with continuous parameters. We compute the Yukawa couplings and their expansions in terms of instantons of genus zero. By making use of recent results of Bershadsky et al. we compute also the instanton numbers for instantons of genus one. For particular values of the parameters the models become birational to certain models with one parameter. The co...

  6. Comparison of Soft Computing Techniques for Modelling of the EDM Performance Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. V. Cakir

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Selection of appropriate operating conditions is an important attribute to pay attention for in electrical discharge machining (EDM of steel parts. The achievement of EDM process is affected by many input parameters; therefore, the computational relations between the output responses and controllable input parameters must be known. However, the proper selection of these parameters is a complex task and it is generally made with the help of sophisticated numerical models. This study investigates the capacity of Adaptive Nero-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS, genetic expression programming (GEP and artificial neural networks (ANN in the prediction of EDM performance parameters. The datasets used in modelling study were taken from experimental study. According to the results of estimating the parameters of all models in the comparison in terms of statistical performance is sufficient, but observed that ANFIS model is slightly better than the other models.

  7. Do Lumped-Parameter Models Provide the Correct Geometrical Damping?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars

    2007-01-01

    This paper concerns the formulation of lumped-parameter models for rigid footings on homogenous or stratified soil with focus on the horizontal sliding and rocking. Such models only contain a few degrees of freedom, which makes them ideal for inclusion in aero-elastic codes for wind turbines...

  8. Muscle parameters for musculoskeletal modelling of the human neck

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Borst, J.; Forbes, P.A.; Happee, R.; Veeger, H.E.J.

    2011-01-01

    Background: To study normal or pathological neuromuscular control, a musculoskeletal model of the neck has great potential but a complete and consistent anatomical dataset which comprises the muscle geometry parameters to construct such a model is not yet available. Methods: A dissection experiment

  9. Do Lumped-Parameter Models Provide the Correct Geometrical Damping?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars

    2007-01-01

    This paper concerns the formulation of lumped-parameter models for rigid footings on homogenous or stratified soil with focus on the horizontal sliding and rocking. Such models only contain a few degrees of freedom, which makes them ideal for inclusion in aero-elastic codes for wind turbines...

  10. Multiplicity Control in Structural Equation Modeling: Incorporating Parameter Dependencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Carrie E.; Cribbie, Robert A.

    2013-01-01

    When structural equation modeling (SEM) analyses are conducted, significance tests for all important model relationships (parameters including factor loadings, covariances, etc.) are typically conducted at a specified nominal Type I error rate ([alpha]). Despite the fact that many significance tests are often conducted in SEM, rarely is…

  11. Muscle parameters for musculoskeletal modelling of the human neck

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Borst, J.; Forbes, P.A.; Happee, R.; Veeger, H.E.J.

    2011-01-01

    Background: To study normal or pathological neuromuscular control, a musculoskeletal model of the neck has great potential but a complete and consistent anatomical dataset which comprises the muscle geometry parameters to construct such a model is not yet available. Methods: A dissection experiment

  12. Geometry parameters for musculoskeletal modelling of the shoulder system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Helm, F C; Veeger, DirkJan (H. E. J.); Pronk, G M; Van der Woude, L H; Rozendal, R H

    1992-01-01

    A dynamical finite-element model of the shoulder mechanism consisting of thorax, clavicula, scapula and humerus is outlined. The parameters needed for the model are obtained in a cadaver experiment consisting of both shoulders of seven cadavers. In this paper, in particular, the derivation of geomet

  13. Precise correction to parameter ρ in the littlest Higgs model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Farshid Tabbak; F.Farnoudi

    2008-01-01

    In this paper tree-level violation of weak isospin parameter,ρ in the flame of the littlest Higgs model is studied.The potentially large deviation from the standard model prediction for the ρ in terms of the littlest Higgs model parameters is calculated.The maximum value for ρ for f = 1 TeV,c = 0.05,c'= 0.05and v'= 1.5 GeV is ρ = 1.2973 which means a large enhancement than the SM.

  14. Acoustic and perceptual parameters relating to connected speech are more reliable measures of hoarseness than parameters relating to sustained vowels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halberstam, Benjamin

    2004-01-01

    This report investigates the correlations between acoustic parameters and the perception of hoarseness by trained listeners. Both sustained vowels and connected speech were examined. Fourteen acoustic parameters from samples of sustained vowels and 2 from connected speech were measured. The results show that jitter, shimmer and cepstral peak prominence (CPP) are correlated with the perception of hoarseness in sustained vowels. CPP is strongly correlated with the perception of hoarseness in connected speech. Some evidence is seen that perception of hoarseness in connected speech is more valid than the perception of hoarseness in sustained vowels. It is concluded that CPP for connected speech is a more valid objective measure of hoarseness than jitter, shimmer or CPP for sustained vowels and that perception of hoarseness may be most accurate in connected speech, rather than isolated vowels. Copyright 2004 S. Karger AG, Basel

  15. Comparative Analysis of Visco-elastic Models with Variable Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silviu Nastac

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a theoretical comparative study for computational behaviour analysis of vibration isolation elements based on viscous and elastic models with variable parameters. The changing of elastic and viscous parameters can be produced by natural timed evolution demo-tion or by heating developed into the elements during their working cycle. It was supposed both linear and non-linear numerical viscous and elastic models, and their combinations. The results show the impor-tance of numerical model tuning with the real behaviour, as such the characteristics linearity, and the essential parameters for damping and rigidity. Multiple comparisons between linear and non-linear simulation cases dignify the basis of numerical model optimization regarding mathematical complexity vs. results reliability.

  16. Approximate Universal Relations among Tidal Parameters for Neutron Star Binaries

    CERN Document Server

    Yagi, Kent

    2016-01-01

    One of largest uncertainties in nuclear physics is the relation between the pressure and density of supranuclear matter: the equation of state. Some of this uncertainty may be removed through future gravitational wave observations of neutron star binaries by extracting the tidal deformabilities (or Love numbers) of neutron stars. Previous studies showed that only a certain combination of the individual deformabilities of each body (chirp tidal deformability) can be measured with second-generation gravitational wave interferometers, such as Adv. LIGO, due to correlations between the individual deformabilities. To overcome this, we search for approximately universal (or equation-of-state independent) relations between two combinations of the individual tidal deformabilities, such that once one of them has been measured, the other can be automatically obtained and the individual ones decoupled through these relations. We find an approximately universal relation between the symmetric and the anti-symmetric combin...

  17. Improvement of Continuous Hydrologic Models and HMS SMA Parameters Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezaeian Zadeh, Mehdi; Zia Hosseinipour, E.; Abghari, Hirad; Nikian, Ashkan; Shaeri Karimi, Sara; Moradzadeh Azar, Foad

    2010-05-01

    Hydrological models can help us to predict stream flows and associated runoff volumes of rainfall events within a watershed. There are many different reasons why we need to model the rainfall-runoff processes of for a watershed. However, the main reason is the limitation of hydrological measurement techniques and the costs of data collection at a fine scale. Generally, we are not able to measure all that we would like to know about a given hydrological systems. This is very particularly the case for ungauged catchments. Since the ultimate aim of prediction using models is to improve decision-making about a hydrological problem, therefore, having a robust and efficient modeling tool becomes an important factor. Among several hydrologic modeling approaches, continuous simulation has the best predictions because it can model dry and wet conditions during a long-term period. Continuous hydrologic models, unlike event based models, account for a watershed's soil moisture balance over a long-term period and are suitable for simulating daily, monthly, and seasonal streamflows. In this paper, we describe a soil moisture accounting (SMA) algorithm added to the hydrologic modeling system (HEC-HMS) computer program. As is well known in the hydrologic modeling community one of the ways for improving a model utility is the reduction of input parameters. The enhanced model developed in this study is applied to Khosrow Shirin Watershed, located in the north-west part of Fars Province in Iran, a data limited watershed. The HMS SMA algorithm divides the potential path of rainfall onto a watershed into five zones. The results showed that the output of HMS SMA is insensitive with the variation of many parameters such as soil storage and soil percolation rate. The study's objective is to remove insensitive parameters from the model input using Multi-objective sensitivity analysis. Keywords: Continuous Hydrologic Modeling, HMS SMA, Multi-objective sensitivity analysis, SMA Parameters

  18. Nonlinear model predictive control using parameter varying BP-ARX combination model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, J.-F.; Xiao, L.-F.; Qian, J.-X.; Li, H.

    2012-03-01

    A novel back-propagation AutoRegressive with eXternal input (BP-ARX) combination model is constructed for model predictive control (MPC) of MIMO nonlinear systems, whose steady-state relation between inputs and outputs can be obtained. The BP neural network represents the steady-state relation, and the ARX model represents the linear dynamic relation between inputs and outputs of the nonlinear systems. The BP-ARX model is a global model and is identified offline, while the parameters of the ARX model are rescaled online according to BP neural network and operating data. Sequential quadratic programming is employed to solve the quadratic objective function online, and a shift coefficient is defined to constrain the effect time of the recursive least-squares algorithm. Thus, a parameter varying nonlinear MPC (PVNMPC) algorithm that responds quickly to large changes in system set-points and shows good dynamic performance when system outputs approach set-points is proposed. Simulation results in a multivariable stirred tank and a multivariable pH neutralisation process illustrate the applicability of the proposed method and comparisons of the control effect between PVNMPC and multivariable recursive generalised predictive controller are also performed.

  19. Parameter uncertainty in CGE Modeling of the environmental impacts of economic policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abler, D.G.; Shortle, J.S. [Agricultural Economics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA (United States); Rodriguez, A.G. [University of Costa Rica, San Jose (Costa Rica)

    1999-07-01

    This study explores the role of parameter uncertainty in Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modeling of the environmental impacts of macroeconomic and sectoral policies, using Costa Rica as a case for study. A CGE model is constructed which includes eight environmental indicators covering deforestation, pesticides, overfishing, hazardous wastes, inorganic wastes, organic wastes, greenhouse gases, and air pollution. The parameters are treated as random variables drawn from prespecified distributions. Evaluation of each policy option consists of a Monte Carlo experiment. The impacts of the policy options on the environmental indicators are relatively robust to different parameter values, in spite of the wide range of parameter values employed. 33 refs.

  20. Determining Rheological Parameters of Generalized Yield-Power-Law Fluid Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stryczek Stanislaw

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available The principles of determining rheological parameters of drilling muds described by a generalized yield-power-law are presented in the paper. Functions between tangent stresses and shear rate are given. The conditions of laboratory measurements of rheological parameters of generalized yield-power-law fluids are described and necessary mathematical relations for rheological model parameters given. With the block diagrams, the methodics of numerical solution of these relations has been presented. Rheological parameters of an exemplary drilling mud have been calculated with the use of this numerical program.

  1. Relative importance of parameters affecting wind speed prediction using artificial neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghorbani, M. A.; Khatibi, R.; Hosseini, B.; Bilgili, M.

    2013-10-01

    In traditional artificial neural networks (ANN) models, the relative importance of the individual meteorological input variables is often overlooked. A case study is presented in this paper to model monthly wind speed values using meteorological data (air pressure, air temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation), where the study also includes an estimate of the relative importance of these variables. Recorded monthly mean data are available at a gauging site in Tabriz, Azerbaijan, Iran, for the period from 2000 to 2005, gauged in the city at the outskirt of alluvial funneling mountains with an established microclimatic conditions and a diurnal wind regime. This provides a sufficiently severe test for the ANN model with a good predictive capability of 1 year of lead time but without any direct approach to refer the predicted results to local microclimatic conditions. A method is used in this paper to calculate the relative importance of each meteorological input parameters affecting wind speed, showing that air pressure and precipitation are the most and least influential parameters with approximate values of 40 and 10 %, respectively. This gained knowledge corresponds to the local knowledge of the microclimatic and geomorphologic conditions surrounding Tabriz.

  2. Condition Parameter Modeling for Anomaly Detection in Wind Turbines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yonglong Yan

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Data collected from the supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA system, used widely in wind farms to obtain operational and condition information about wind turbines (WTs, is of important significance for anomaly detection in wind turbines. The paper presents a novel model for wind turbine anomaly detection mainly based on SCADA data and a back-propagation neural network (BPNN for automatic selection of the condition parameters. The SCADA data sets are determined through analysis of the cumulative probability distribution of wind speed and the relationship between output power and wind speed. The automatic BPNN-based parameter selection is for reduction of redundant parameters for anomaly detection in wind turbines. Through investigation of cases of WT faults, the validity of the automatic parameter selection-based model for WT anomaly detection is verified.

  3. Parameter Estimation of Photovoltaic Models via Cuckoo Search

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jieming Ma

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Since conventional methods are incapable of estimating the parameters of Photovoltaic (PV models with high accuracy, bioinspired algorithms have attracted significant attention in the last decade. Cuckoo Search (CS is invented based on the inspiration of brood parasitic behavior of some cuckoo species in combination with the Lévy flight behavior. In this paper, a CS-based parameter estimation method is proposed to extract the parameters of single-diode models for commercial PV generators. Simulation results and experimental data show that the CS algorithm is capable of obtaining all the parameters with extremely high accuracy, depicted by a low Root-Mean-Squared-Error (RMSE value. The proposed method outperforms other algorithms applied in this study.

  4. Parameter Estimation for Single Diode Models of Photovoltaic Modules

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansen, Clifford [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Photovoltaic and Distributed Systems Integration Dept.

    2015-03-01

    Many popular models for photovoltaic system performance employ a single diode model to compute the I - V curve for a module or string of modules at given irradiance and temperature conditions. A single diode model requires a number of parameters to be estimated from measured I - V curves. Many available parameter estimation methods use only short circuit, o pen circuit and maximum power points for a single I - V curve at standard test conditions together with temperature coefficients determined separately for individual cells. In contrast, module testing frequently records I - V curves over a wide range of irradi ance and temperature conditions which, when available , should also be used to parameterize the performance model. We present a parameter estimation method that makes use of a fu ll range of available I - V curves. We verify the accuracy of the method by recov ering known parameter values from simulated I - V curves . We validate the method by estimating model parameters for a module using outdoor test data and predicting the outdoor performance of the module.

  5. Automatic Determination of the Conic Coronal Mass Ejection Model Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulkkinen, A.; Oates, T.; Taktakishvili, A.

    2009-01-01

    Characterization of the three-dimensional structure of solar transients using incomplete plane of sky data is a difficult problem whose solutions have potential for societal benefit in terms of space weather applications. In this paper transients are characterized in three dimensions by means of conic coronal mass ejection (CME) approximation. A novel method for the automatic determination of cone model parameters from observed halo CMEs is introduced. The method uses both standard image processing techniques to extract the CME mass from white-light coronagraph images and a novel inversion routine providing the final cone parameters. A bootstrap technique is used to provide model parameter distributions. When combined with heliospheric modeling, the cone model parameter distributions will provide direct means for ensemble predictions of transient propagation in the heliosphere. An initial validation of the automatic method is carried by comparison to manually determined cone model parameters. It is shown using 14 halo CME events that there is reasonable agreement, especially between the heliocentric locations of the cones derived with the two methods. It is argued that both the heliocentric locations and the opening half-angles of the automatically determined cones may be more realistic than those obtained from the manual analysis

  6. Estimation of the parameters of ETAS models by Simulated Annealing

    OpenAIRE

    Lombardi, Anna Maria

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a new algorithm to estimate the maximum likelihood parameters of an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) model. It is based on Simulated Annealing, a versatile method that solves problems of global optimization and ensures convergence to a global optimum. The procedure is tested on both simulated and real catalogs. The main conclusion is that the method performs poorly as the size of the catalog decreases because the effect of the correlation of the ETAS parameters is...

  7. CADLIVE optimizer: web-based parameter estimation for dynamic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inoue Kentaro

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Computer simulation has been an important technique to capture the dynamics of biochemical networks. In most networks, however, few kinetic parameters have been measured in vivo because of experimental complexity. We develop a kinetic parameter estimation system, named the CADLIVE Optimizer, which comprises genetic algorithms-based solvers with a graphical user interface. This optimizer is integrated into the CADLIVE Dynamic Simulator to attain efficient simulation for dynamic models.

  8. Object-relational mapping model

    OpenAIRE

    Žukauskas, Arūnas

    2007-01-01

    This work is analyzing problems, arising because of sematical gap between relational and object-oriented approaches and discusses how to utilize object-relational mapping for solving this problem. After analysis of object-relational mapping framework (further – ORM) principles and features of existing ORM frameworks a model is suggested, that allows to implement ORM by utilizing MVP principles in a way that retains major portion of both approach pros and is perfect for transitioning existing ...

  9. Reference physiological parameters for pharmacodynamic modeling of liver cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Travis, C.C.; Arms, A.D.

    1988-01-01

    This document presents a compilation of measured values for physiological parameters used in pharamacodynamic modeling of liver cancer. The physiological parameters include body weight, liver weight, the liver weight/body weight ratio, and number of hepatocytes. Reference values for use in risk assessment are given for each of the physiological parameters based on analyses of valid measurements taken from the literature and other reliable sources. The proposed reference values for rodents include sex-specific measurements for the B6C3F{sub 1}, mice and Fishcer 344/N, Sprague-Dawley, and Wistar rats. Reference values are also provided for humans. 102 refs., 65 tabs.

  10. Uncertainty of Modal Parameters Estimated by ARMA Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jacob Laigaard; Brincker, Rune; Rytter, Anders

    1990-01-01

    In this paper the uncertainties of identified modal parameters such as eidenfrequencies and damping ratios are assed. From the measured response of dynamic excited structures the modal parameters may be identified and provide important structural knowledge. However the uncertainty of the parameters...... by simulation study of a lightly damped single degree of freedom system. Identification by ARMA models has been choosen as system identification method. It is concluded that both the sampling interval and number of sampled points may play a significant role with respect to the statistical errors. Furthermore...

  11. X-Parameter Based Modelling of Polar Modulated Power Amplifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Yelin; Nielsen, Troels Studsgaard; Sira, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    X-parameters are developed as an extension of S-parameters capable of modelling non-linear devices driven by large signals. They are suitable for devices having only radio frequency (RF) and DC ports. In a polar power amplifier (PA), phase and envelope of the input modulated signal are applied...... at separate ports and the envelope port is neither an RF nor a DC port. As a result, X-parameters may fail to characterise the effect of the envelope port excitation and consequently the polar PA. This study introduces a solution to the problem for a commercial polar PA. In this solution, the RF-phase path...

  12. A Bayesian framework for parameter estimation in dynamical models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flávio Codeço Coelho

    Full Text Available Mathematical models in biology are powerful tools for the study and exploration of complex dynamics. Nevertheless, bringing theoretical results to an agreement with experimental observations involves acknowledging a great deal of uncertainty intrinsic to our theoretical representation of a real system. Proper handling of such uncertainties is key to the successful usage of models to predict experimental or field observations. This problem has been addressed over the years by many tools for model calibration and parameter estimation. In this article we present a general framework for uncertainty analysis and parameter estimation that is designed to handle uncertainties associated with the modeling of dynamic biological systems while remaining agnostic as to the type of model used. We apply the framework to fit an SIR-like influenza transmission model to 7 years of incidence data in three European countries: Belgium, the Netherlands and Portugal.

  13. Modelling of Water Turbidity Parameters in a Water Treatment Plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. S. KOVO

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The high cost of chemical analysis of water has necessitated various researches into finding alternative method of determining portable water quality. This paper is aimed at modelling the turbidity value as a water quality parameter. Mathematical models for turbidity removal were developed based on the relationships between water turbidity and other water criteria. Results showed that the turbidity of water is the cumulative effect of the individual parameters/factors affecting the system. A model equation for the evaluation and prediction of a clarifier’s performance was developed:Model: T = T0(-1.36729 + 0.037101∙10λpH + 0.048928t + 0.00741387∙alkThe developed model will aid the predictive assessment of water treatment plant performance. The limitations of the models are as a result of insufficient variable considered during the conceptualization.

  14. A first look for parameters of public relations in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ruler, A.A.; Vercic, D.; Buetschi, G.; Flodin, B.

    2004-01-01

    Teaching of public relations in Europe is largely U.S. oriented. A study has been conducted to determine whether this also applies to the practical and academic approaches in this area. A Delphi panel, consisting of experts in research, education, or both from countries in Europe, identified four ch

  15. A first look for parameters of public relations in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ruler, A.A.; Vercic, D.; Buetschi, G.; Flodin, B.

    2004-01-01

    Teaching of public relations in Europe is largely U.S. oriented. A study has been conducted to determine whether this also applies to the practical and academic approaches in this area. A Delphi panel, consisting of experts in research, education, or both from countries in Europe, identified four ch

  16. Shape parameter estimate for a glottal model without time position

    OpenAIRE

    Degottex, Gilles; Roebel, Axel; Rodet, Xavier

    2009-01-01

    cote interne IRCAM: Degottex09a; None / None; National audience; From a recorded speech signal, we propose to estimate a shape parameter of a glottal model without estimating his time position. Indeed, the literature usually propose to estimate the time position first (ex. by detecting Glottal Closure Instants). The vocal-tract filter estimate is expressed as a minimum-phase envelope estimation after removing the glottal model and a standard lips radiation model. Since this filter is mainly b...

  17. Light-Front Spin-1 Model: Parameters Dependence

    CERN Document Server

    Mello, Clayton S; de Melo, J P B C; Frederico, T

    2015-01-01

    We study the structure of the $\\rho$-meson within a light-front model with constituent quark degrees of freedom. We calculate electroweak static observables: magnetic and quadrupole moments, decay constant and charge radius. The prescription used to compute the electroweak quantities is free of zero modes, which makes the calculation implicitly covariant. We compare the results of our model with other ones found in the literature. Our model parameters give a decay constant close to the experimental one.

  18. Cosmological Models with Variable Deceleration Parameter in Lyra's Manifold

    CERN Document Server

    Pradhan, A; Singh, C B

    2006-01-01

    FRW models of the universe have been studied in the cosmological theory based on Lyra's manifold. A new class of exact solutions has been obtained by considering a time dependent displacement field for variable deceleration parameter from which three models of the universe are derived (i) exponential (ii) polynomial and (iii) sinusoidal form respectively. The behaviour of these models of the universe are also discussed. Finally some possibilities of further problems and their investigations have been pointed out.

  19. Relations Between Red Edge Characteristics and Agronomic Parameters of Crops

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TANG Yan-Lin; WANG Ren-Chao; HUANG Jing-Feng

    2004-01-01

    The hyperspectral reflectance of the canopy and the leaves on the main stem for six varieties, two each of rice, corn, and cotton crops, were measured at different growth stages with an ASD FieldSpec Pro FRTM to analyze red edge characteristics for leaf area indices (LAI), aboveground biomass, as well as the chlorophyll, carotenoid, and nitrogen shift' for λr of the leaf spectra for all 3 crops as the development stages progressed. For rice, corn, and cotton the LAI and fresh leaf mass had highly significant correlations (P < 0.01) to the red edge parameters λr, Dλr, and Sr of their canopy spectra. Additionally, for all crops the chlorophyll-a, chlorophyll-b, total chlorophyll, and carotenoid content of the leaves all had highly significant (P < 0.01) correlations to their λr.For rice, the nitrogen content of the leaves in g kg-1 and phytomass for a unit area of land in g m-2 also had a highly significant (P < 0.01) correlation to λr, Dλr, and Sr of the canopy spectra.

  20. Lunar ~3He estimations and related parameters analyses

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    As a potential nuclear fuel, 3He element is significant for both the solution of impending human energy crisis and the conservation of natural environment. Lunar regolith contains abundant and easily extracted 3He. Based on the analyses of the impact factors of 3He abundance, here we have compared a few key assessment parameters and approaches used in lunar regolith 3He reserve estimation and some representative estimation results, and discussed the issues concerned in 3He abundance variation and 3He reserve estimation. Our studies suggest that in a range of at least meters deep, 3He abundance in lunar regolith is homogeneously distributed and generally does not depend on the depth; lunar regolith has long been in a saturation state of 3He trapped by minerals through chemical bonds, and the temperature fluctuation on the lunar surface exerts little influence on the lattice 3He abundance. In terms of above conclusions and the newest lunar regolith depth data from the microwave brightness temperature retrieval of the "ChangE-1" Lunar Microwave Sounder, a new 3He reserve estimation has been presented.

  1. Uncertainty in the relationship between flow and parameters in models of pollutant transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanowicz, R.; Osuch, M.; Wallis, S.; Napiórkowski, J. J.

    2009-04-01

    Fluorescent dye-tracer studies are usually performed under steady-state flow conditions. However, the model parameters, estimated using the tracer data, depend on the discharges. This paper investigates uncertainties in the relationship between discharges and parameters of a transient storage (TS) and an aggregated dead zone (ADZ) models. We apply a Bayesian statistical approach to derive the cumulative distribution of a range of model parameters conditioned on discharges. The data consist of eighteen tracer concentration profiles taken at different flow values at two cross-sections from the Murray Burn, a stream flowing through the Heriot-Watt University Campus at Riccarton in Edinburgh, Scotland. A number of studies have been reported of the dependence of TS and ADZ model parameters on discharge but there are very few studies on the uncertainty related to that parameterization, which is the aim of this work. As the TS model is purely deterministic and the ADZ model is stochastic, different approaches are required to estimate the uncertainty in the dependence of their parameters on flow. The Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) approach is suitable for the deterministic models and is therefore applied to the TS model. The method applies Monte Carlo sampling of parameter space used in multiple simulations of a deterministic transient storage model. The relationship between model parameters and flow has the form of a nonlinear regression model based on multiple random realizations of the deterministic transport model. The parameterization of that relationship and its introduction into the TS model allow for the conditioning of parameter estimates and as a result, also model predictions on the whole set of available observations. In the case of the ADZ model, the approach is based on Monte Carlo sampling of ADZ model parameters, taking into account heteroscedastic variance of the observations and estimates of the covariance of the model parameters

  2. Identification of slow molecular order parameters for Markov model construction

    CERN Document Server

    Perez-Hernandez, Guillermo; Giorgino, Toni; de Fabritiis, Gianni; Noé, Frank

    2013-01-01

    A goal in the kinetic characterization of a macromolecular system is the description of its slow relaxation processes, involving (i) identification of the structural changes involved in these processes, and (ii) estimation of the rates or timescales at which these slow processes occur. Most of the approaches to this task, including Markov models, Master-equation models, and kinetic network models, start by discretizing the high-dimensional state space and then characterize relaxation processes in terms of the eigenvectors and eigenvalues of a discrete transition matrix. The practical success of such an approach depends very much on the ability to finely discretize the slow order parameters. How can this task be achieved in a high-dimensional configuration space without relying on subjective guesses of the slow order parameters? In this paper, we use the variational principle of conformation dynamics to derive an optimal way of identifying the "slow subspace" of a large set of prior order parameters - either g...

  3. Solar Model Parameters and Direct Measurements of Solar Neutrino Fluxes

    CERN Document Server

    Bandyopadhyay, A; Goswami, S; Petcov, S T; Bandyopadhyay, Abhijit; Choubey, Sandhya; Goswami, Srubabati

    2006-01-01

    We explore a novel possibility of determining the solar model parameters, which serve as input in the calculations of the solar neutrino fluxes, by exploiting the data from direct measurements of the fluxes. More specifically, we use the rather precise value of the $^8B$ neutrino flux, $\\phi_B$ obtained from the global analysis of the solar neutrino and KamLAND data, to derive constraints on each of the solar model parameters on which $\\phi_B$ depends. We also use more precise values of $^7Be$ and $pp$ fluxes as can be obtained from future prospective data and discuss whether such measurements can help in reducing the uncertainties of one or more input parameters of the Standard Solar Model.

  4. IP-Sat: Impact-Parameter dependent Saturation model; revised

    CERN Document Server

    Rezaeian, Amir H; Van de Klundert, Merijn; Venugopalan, Raju

    2013-01-01

    In this talk, we present a global analysis of available small-x data on inclusive DIS and exclusive diffractive processes, including the latest data from the combined HERA analysis on reduced cross sections within the Impact-Parameter dependent Saturation (IP-Sat) Model. The impact-parameter dependence of dipole amplitude is crucial in order to have a unified description of both inclusive and exclusive diffractive processes. With the parameters of model fixed via a fit to the high-precision reduced cross-section, we compare model predictions to data for the structure functions, the longitudinal structure function, the charm structure function, exclusive vector mesons production and Deeply Virtual Compton Scattering (DVCS). Excellent agreement is obtained for the processes considered at small x in a wide range of Q^2.

  5. QCD-inspired determination of NJL model parameters

    CERN Document Server

    Springer, Paul; Rechenberger, Stefan; Rennecke, Fabian

    2016-01-01

    The QCD phase diagram at finite temperature and density has attracted considerable interest over many decades now, not least because of its relevance for a better understanding of heavy-ion collision experiments. Models provide some insight into the QCD phase structure but usually rely on various parameters. Based on renormalization group arguments, we discuss how the parameters of QCD low-energy models can be determined from the fundamental theory of the strong interaction. We particularly focus on a determination of the temperature dependence of these parameters in this work and comment on the effect of a finite quark chemical potential. We present first results and argue that our findings can be used to improve the predictive power of future model calculations.

  6. Synchronous Generator Model Parameter Estimation Based on Noisy Dynamic Waveforms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berhausen, Sebastian; Paszek, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, there have occurred system failures in many power systems all over the world. They have resulted in a lack of power supply to a large number of recipients. To minimize the risk of occurrence of power failures, it is necessary to perform multivariate investigations, including simulations, of power system operating conditions. To conduct reliable simulations, the current base of parameters of the models of generating units, containing the models of synchronous generators, is necessary. In the paper, there is presented a method for parameter estimation of a synchronous generator nonlinear model based on the analysis of selected transient waveforms caused by introducing a disturbance (in the form of a pseudorandom signal) in the generator voltage regulation channel. The parameter estimation was performed by minimizing the objective function defined as a mean square error for deviations between the measurement waveforms and the waveforms calculated based on the generator mathematical model. A hybrid algorithm was used for the minimization of the objective function. In the paper, there is described a filter system used for filtering the noisy measurement waveforms. The calculation results of the model of a 44 kW synchronous generator installed on a laboratory stand of the Institute of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science of the Silesian University of Technology are also given. The presented estimation method can be successfully applied to parameter estimation of different models of high-power synchronous generators operating in a power system.

  7. Optimizing Muscle Parameters in Musculoskeletal Modeling Using Monte Carlo Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Andrea; Reed, Erik; Cavanagh, Peter

    2011-01-01

    Astronauts assigned to long-duration missions experience bone and muscle atrophy in the lower limbs. The use of musculoskeletal simulation software has become a useful tool for modeling joint and muscle forces during human activity in reduced gravity as access to direct experimentation is limited. Knowledge of muscle and joint loads can better inform the design of exercise protocols and exercise countermeasure equipment. In this study, the LifeModeler(TM) (San Clemente, CA) biomechanics simulation software was used to model a squat exercise. The initial model using default parameters yielded physiologically reasonable hip-joint forces. However, no activation was predicted in some large muscles such as rectus femoris, which have been shown to be active in 1-g performance of the activity. Parametric testing was conducted using Monte Carlo methods and combinatorial reduction to find a muscle parameter set that more closely matched physiologically observed activation patterns during the squat exercise. Peak hip joint force using the default parameters was 2.96 times body weight (BW) and increased to 3.21 BW in an optimized, feature-selected test case. The rectus femoris was predicted to peak at 60.1% activation following muscle recruitment optimization, compared to 19.2% activation with default parameters. These results indicate the critical role that muscle parameters play in joint force estimation and the need for exploration of the solution space to achieve physiologically realistic muscle activation.

  8. Parameter sensitivity analysis of stochastic models provides insights into cardiac calcium sparks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Young-Seon; Liu, Ona Z; Hwang, Hyun Seok; Knollmann, Bjorn C; Sobie, Eric A

    2013-03-05

    We present a parameter sensitivity analysis method that is appropriate for stochastic models, and we demonstrate how this analysis generates experimentally testable predictions about the factors that influence local Ca(2+) release in heart cells. The method involves randomly varying all parameters, running a single simulation with each set of parameters, running simulations with hundreds of model variants, then statistically relating the parameters to the simulation results using regression methods. We tested this method on a stochastic model, containing 18 parameters, of the cardiac Ca(2+) spark. Results show that multivariable linear regression can successfully relate parameters to continuous model outputs such as Ca(2+) spark amplitude and duration, and multivariable logistic regression can provide insight into how parameters affect Ca(2+) spark triggering (a probabilistic process that is all-or-none in a single simulation). Benchmark studies demonstrate that this method is less computationally intensive than standard methods by a factor of 16. Importantly, predictions were tested experimentally by measuring Ca(2+) sparks in mice with knockout of the sarcoplasmic reticulum protein triadin. These mice exhibit multiple changes in Ca(2+) release unit structures, and the regression model both accurately predicts changes in Ca(2+) spark amplitude (30% decrease in model, 29% decrease in experiments) and provides an intuitive and quantitative understanding of how much each alteration contributes to the result. This approach is therefore an effective, efficient, and predictive method for analyzing stochastic mathematical models to gain biological insight.

  9. Estimation of the parameters of ETAS models by Simulated Annealing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardi, Anna Maria

    2015-02-01

    This paper proposes a new algorithm to estimate the maximum likelihood parameters of an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) model. It is based on Simulated Annealing, a versatile method that solves problems of global optimization and ensures convergence to a global optimum. The procedure is tested on both simulated and real catalogs. The main conclusion is that the method performs poorly as the size of the catalog decreases because the effect of the correlation of the ETAS parameters is more significant. These results give new insights into the ETAS model and the efficiency of the maximum-likelihood method within this context.

  10. J-A Hysteresis Model Parameters Estimation using GA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogomir Zidaric

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the Jiles and Atherton (J-A hysteresis model parameter estimation for soft magnetic composite (SMC material. The calculation of Jiles and Atherton hysteresis model parameters is based on experimental data and genetic algorithms (GA. Genetic algorithms operate in a given area of possible solutions. Finding the best solution of a problem in wide area of possible solutions is uncertain. A new approach in use of genetic algorithms is proposed to overcome this uncertainty. The basis of this approach is in genetic algorithm built in another genetic algorithm.

  11. A new estimate of the parameters in linear mixed models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王松桂; 尹素菊

    2002-01-01

    In linear mixed models, there are two kinds of unknown parameters: one is the fixed effect, theother is the variance component. In this paper, new estimates of these parameters, called the spectral decom-position estimates, are proposed, Some important statistical properties of the new estimates are established,in particular the linearity of the estimates of the fixed effects with many statistical optimalities. A new methodis applied to two important models which are used in economics, finance, and mechanical fields. All estimatesobtained have good statistical and practical meaning.

  12. Models wagging the dog: are circuits constructed with disparate parameters?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowotny, Thomas; Szücs, Attila; Levi, Rafael; Selverston, Allen I

    2007-08-01

    In a recent article, Prinz, Bucher, and Marder (2004) addressed the fundamental question of whether neural systems are built with a fixed blueprint of tightly controlled parameters or in a way in which properties can vary largely from one individual to another, using a database modeling approach. Here, we examine the main conclusion that neural circuits indeed are built with largely varying parameters in the light of our own experimental and modeling observations. We critically discuss the experimental and theoretical evidence, including the general adequacy of database approaches for questions of this kind, and come to the conclusion that the last word for this fundamental question has not yet been spoken.

  13. Do land parameters matter in large-scale hydrological modelling?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2013-04-01

    Many of the most pending issues in large-scale hydrology are concerned with predicting hydrological variability at ungauged locations. However, current-generation hydrological and land surface models that are used for their estimation suffer from large uncertainties. These models rely on mathematical approximations of the physical system as well as on mapped values of land parameters (e.g. topography, soil types, land cover) to predict hydrological variables (e.g. evapotranspiration, soil moisture, stream flow) as a function of atmospheric forcing (e.g. precipitation, temperature, humidity). Despite considerable progress in recent years, it remains unclear whether better estimates of land parameters can improve predictions - or - if a refinement of model physics is necessary. To approach this question we suggest scrutinizing our perception of hydrological systems by confronting it with the radical assumption that hydrological variability at any location in space depends on past and present atmospheric forcing only, and not on location-specific land parameters. This so called "Constant Land Parameter Hypothesis (CLPH)" assumes that variables like runoff can be predicted without taking location specific factors such as topography or soil types into account. We demonstrate, using a modern statistical tool, that monthly runoff in Europe can be skilfully estimated using atmospheric forcing alone, without accounting for locally varying land parameters. The resulting runoff estimates are used to benchmark state-of-the-art process models. These are found to have inferior performance, despite their explicit process representation, which accounts for locally varying land parameters. This suggests that progress in the theory of hydrological systems is likely to yield larger improvements in model performance than more precise land parameter estimates. The results also question the current modelling paradigm that is dominated by the attempt to account for locally varying land

  14. Combined Parameter and State Estimation Algorithms for Multivariable Nonlinear Systems Using MIMO Wiener Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Houda Salhi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the parameter estimation problem for multivariable nonlinear systems described by MIMO state-space Wiener models. Recursive parameters and state estimation algorithms are presented using the least squares technique, the adjustable model, and the Kalman filter theory. The basic idea is to estimate jointly the parameters, the state vector, and the internal variables of MIMO Wiener models based on a specific decomposition technique to extract the internal vector and avoid problems related to invertibility assumption. The effectiveness of the proposed algorithms is shown by an illustrative simulation example.

  15. Experimental manipulation of working memory model parameters: an exercise in construct validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Gregory G; Turner, Travis H; Mano, Quintino R; Bolden, Khalima; Thomas, Michael L

    2013-09-01

    As parametric cognitive models become more commonly used to measure individual differences, the construct validity of the interpretation of individual model parameters needs to be well established. The validity of the interpretation of 2 parameters of a formal model of the Continuous Recognition Memory Test (CRMT) was investigated in 2 experiments. The 1st study found that manipulating the percentage of trials on the CRMT for which degraded pseudowords were presented altered the model's stimulus encoding parameter but not the working memory displacement parameter. The 2nd experiment showed that manipulating the number of syllables forming a pseudoword altered the model's working memory displacement parameter for each syllable added to the pseudoword. Findings from both experiments supported the construct representation of the model parameters, supporting the construct validity of the model's use to interpret CRMT performance. Combining parametric models with the manipulation of factors that theory predicts are related to model parameters provides an approach to construct validation that bridges experimental and individual difference methods of studying human cognition.

  16. Using Bayesian hierarchical parameter estimation to assess the generalizability of cognitive models of choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheibehenne, Benjamin; Pachur, Thorsten

    2015-04-01

    To be useful, cognitive models with fitted parameters should show generalizability across time and allow accurate predictions of future observations. It has been proposed that hierarchical procedures yield better estimates of model parameters than do nonhierarchical, independent approaches, because the formers' estimates for individuals within a group can mutually inform each other. Here, we examine Bayesian hierarchical approaches to evaluating model generalizability in the context of two prominent models of risky choice-cumulative prospect theory (Tversky & Kahneman, 1992) and the transfer-of-attention-exchange model (Birnbaum & Chavez, 1997). Using empirical data of risky choices collected for each individual at two time points, we compared the use of hierarchical versus independent, nonhierarchical Bayesian estimation techniques to assess two aspects of model generalizability: parameter stability (across time) and predictive accuracy. The relative performance of hierarchical versus independent estimation varied across the different measures of generalizability. The hierarchical approach improved parameter stability (in terms of a lower absolute discrepancy of parameter values across time) and predictive accuracy (in terms of deviance; i.e., likelihood). With respect to test-retest correlations and posterior predictive accuracy, however, the hierarchical approach did not outperform the independent approach. Further analyses suggested that this was due to strong correlations between some parameters within both models. Such intercorrelations make it difficult to identify and interpret single parameters and can induce high degrees of shrinkage in hierarchical models. Similar findings may also occur in the context of other cognitive models of choice.

  17. Spatial variability of the parameters of a semi-distributed hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Lavenne, Alban; Thirel, Guillaume; Andréassian, Vazken; Perrin, Charles; Ramos, Maria-Helena

    2016-05-01

    Ideally, semi-distributed hydrologic models should provide better streamflow simulations than lumped models, along with spatially-relevant water resources management solutions. However, the spatial distribution of model parameters raises issues related to the calibration strategy and to the identifiability of the parameters. To analyse these issues, we propose to base the evaluation of a semi-distributed model not only on its performance at streamflow gauging stations, but also on the spatial and temporal pattern of the optimised value of its parameters. We implemented calibration over 21 rolling periods and 64 catchments, and we analysed how well each parameter is identified in time and space. Performance and parameter identifiability are analysed comparatively to the calibration of the lumped version of the same model. We show that the semi-distributed model faces more difficulties to identify stable optimal parameter sets. The main difficulty lies in the identification of the parameters responsible for the closure of the water balance (i.e. for the particular model investigated, the intercatchment groundwater flow parameter).

  18. Model Validation for Shipboard Power Cables Using Scattering Parameters%Model Validation for Shipboard Power Cables Using Scattering Parameters

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lukas Graber; Diomar Infante; Michael Steurer; William W. Brey

    2011-01-01

    Careful analysis of transients in shipboard power systems is important to achieve long life times of the com ponents in future all-electric ships. In order to accomplish results with high accuracy, it is recommended to validate cable models as they have significant influence on the amplitude and frequency spectrum of voltage transients. The authors propose comparison of model and measurement using scattering parameters. They can be easily obtained from measurement and simulation and deliver broadband information about the accuracy of the model. The measurement can be performed using a vector network analyzer. The process to extract scattering parameters from simulation models is explained in detail. Three different simulation models of a 5 kV XLPE power cable have been validated. The chosen approach delivers an efficient tool to quickly estimate the quality of a model.

  19. Considerations for parameter optimization and sensitivity in climate models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neelin, J David; Bracco, Annalisa; Luo, Hao; McWilliams, James C; Meyerson, Joyce E

    2010-12-14

    Climate models exhibit high sensitivity in some respects, such as for differences in predicted precipitation changes under global warming. Despite successful large-scale simulations, regional climatology features prove difficult to constrain toward observations, with challenges including high-dimensionality, computationally expensive simulations, and ambiguity in the choice of objective function. In an atmospheric General Circulation Model forced by observed sea surface temperature or coupled to a mixed-layer ocean, many climatic variables yield rms-error objective functions that vary smoothly through the feasible parameter range. This smoothness occurs despite nonlinearity strong enough to reverse the curvature of the objective function in some parameters, and to imply limitations on multimodel ensemble means as an estimator of global warming precipitation changes. Low-order polynomial fits to the model output spatial fields as a function of parameter (quadratic in model field, fourth-order in objective function) yield surprisingly successful metamodels for many quantities and facilitate a multiobjective optimization approach. Tradeoffs arise as optima for different variables occur at different parameter values, but with agreement in certain directions. Optima often occur at the limit of the feasible parameter range, identifying key parameterization aspects warranting attention--here the interaction of convection with free tropospheric water vapor. Analytic results for spatial fields of leading contributions to the optimization help to visualize tradeoffs at a regional level, e.g., how mismatches between sensitivity and error spatial fields yield regional error under minimization of global objective functions. The approach is sufficiently simple to guide parameter choices and to aid intercomparison of sensitivity properties among climate models.

  20. Uncertainty of Modal Parameters Estimated by ARMA Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jakob Laigaard; Brincker, Rune; Rytter, Anders

    In this paper the uncertainties of identified modal parameters such as eigenfrequencies and damping ratios are assessed. From the measured response of dynamic excited structures the modal parameters may be identified and provide important structural knowledge. However the uncertainty of the param......In this paper the uncertainties of identified modal parameters such as eigenfrequencies and damping ratios are assessed. From the measured response of dynamic excited structures the modal parameters may be identified and provide important structural knowledge. However the uncertainty...... by a simulation study of a lightly damped single degree of freedom system. Identification by ARMA models has been chosen as system identification method. It is concluded that both the sampling interval and number of sampled points may play a significant role with respect to the statistical errors. Furthermore...

  1. Being surveyed can change later behavior and related parameter estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwane, Alix Peterson; Zinman, Jonathan; Van Dusen, Eric; Pariente, William; Null, Clair; Miguel, Edward; Kremer, Michael; Hornbeck, Richard; Giné, Xavier; Duflo, Esther; Devoto, Florencia; Crepon, Bruno; Banerjee, Abhijit

    2011-01-01

    Does completing a household survey change the later behavior of those surveyed? In three field studies of health and two of microlending, we randomly assigned subjects to be surveyed about health and/or household finances and then measured subsequent use of a related product with data that does not rely on subjects' self-reports. In the three health experiments, we find that being surveyed increases use of water treatment products and take-up of medical insurance. Frequent surveys on reported diarrhea also led to biased estimates of the impact of improved source water quality. In two microlending studies, we do not find an effect of being surveyed on borrowing behavior. The results suggest that limited attention could play an important but context-dependent role in consumer choice, with the implication that researchers should reconsider whether, how, and how much to survey their subjects. PMID:21245314

  2. Numerical Study of Urban Canyon Microclimate Related to Geometrical Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea de Lieto Vollaro

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available In this study a microclimate analysis on a particular urban configuration: the—street canyon—has been carried out. The analysis, conducted by performing numerical simulations using the finite volumes commercial code ANSYS-Fluent, shows the flow field in an urban environment, taking into account three different aspect ratios (H/W. This analysis can be helpful in the study on urban microclimate and on the heat exchanges with the buildings. Fluid-dynamic fields on vertical planes within the canyon, have been evaluated. The results show the importance of the geometrical configuration, in relation to the ratio between the height (H of the buildings and the width (W of the road. This is a very important subject from the point of view of “Smart Cities”, considering the urban canyon as a subsystem of a larger one (the city, which is affected by climate changes.

  3. Handgrip strength and its relation with anthropometric parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Luís Fischer Eichinger

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The handgrip strength (HS is related to ADL, when reduced can lead to significant functional limitations. Its measurement allows estimating the strength general state and is a health indicator. Objective: Analyze the correlation between HS and anthropometry in box genders. Methods: This is a descriptive correlational study with 100 healthy individuals, aged between 17 and 40 years, 50 men, mean age 28.0 years (± 7.0 and 50 women, mean age 23 years (± 4.2. We evaluated HS and forearm, wrist and hand perimeter. Statistical analyzes were obtained using means, standard deviations and Pearson Correlation Test. Results: Compared to women, men had higher HS mean values on both sides. Men showed 49.0 kgf (± 8.3 on the right and 46.0 kgf (± 8.5 on the left side; while women showed 26.0 kgf (± 5.4 on the right side and 24.0 kgf (± 5.3 on the left side. Discussion: The hand perimeter was the only anthropometric data that showed a significant correlation with the HS in both genders. The forearm and wrist perimeter was only significant in men, with a slight difference between the sides; the right side prevails over the left. Although women showed no significant correlations with the HS it was noted discrepancy of force in relation to laterality, with a predominance of HS on the right side. Conclusions: We conclude that there is a correlation between HS and anthropometry, and that laterality and gender are factors influencing HS.

  4. Relation between Serum Ferritin and Iron Parameters with Preeclampsia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robabeh Taheripanah

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Preeclampsia is one of the most important complications of pregnancy that is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to investigate the relation between serum iron status and ferritin with pre-eclampsia. Materials and Methods: This case control study evaluated 33 preeclamptic patients and 33 normal pregnant women before parturition in Imam Hossein hospital, from March 2003 till March 2004. Anemia, diabetes and multiple pregnancies were excluded from the study. Blood samples were taken before delivery and patients with HELLP syndrome were considered separately.  Data were analyzed using the SPSS software and P value <0.05 was considered statistically significant. T-test, chi-square and Fisher exact test were used.  Results: The mean of serum iron level in case and control group was 79.9±32.4µg/dl and 88.6±40.8 µg/dl, respectively (NS. TIBC was 443.4±55.0 µmol/l and 383.7±63.6 µmol/l in normal patients and preeclamptics respectively (P = 0.002. Mean serum ferritin was 32.1±16.2 ng/dl in control group and 123.8±46.1 ng/dl in preeclamptics (P<0.001. No meaningful relation was observed between hematocrit, ferritin and iron. Conclusions: Ferritin increases and TIBC decreases in preeclampsia regardless of hepatic function. It seems that elevated serum ferritin (as an oxidative stress can accelerate vascular damage. So, routine iron supplementation in preeclamptic women is questationable.

  5. Iterative integral parameter identification of a respiratory mechanics model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schranz Christoph

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Patient-specific respiratory mechanics models can support the evaluation of optimal lung protective ventilator settings during ventilation therapy. Clinical application requires that the individual’s model parameter values must be identified with information available at the bedside. Multiple linear regression or gradient-based parameter identification methods are highly sensitive to noise and initial parameter estimates. Thus, they are difficult to apply at the bedside to support therapeutic decisions. Methods An iterative integral parameter identification method is applied to a second order respiratory mechanics model. The method is compared to the commonly used regression methods and error-mapping approaches using simulated and clinical data. The clinical potential of the method was evaluated on data from 13 Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS patients. Results The iterative integral method converged to error minima 350 times faster than the Simplex Search Method using simulation data sets and 50 times faster using clinical data sets. Established regression methods reported erroneous results due to sensitivity to noise. In contrast, the iterative integral method was effective independent of initial parameter estimations, and converged successfully in each case tested. Conclusion These investigations reveal that the iterative integral method is beneficial with respect to computing time, operator independence and robustness, and thus applicable at the bedside for this clinical application.

  6. Estimation of growth parameters using a nonlinear mixed Gompertz model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Z; Zuidhof, M J

    2004-06-01

    In order to maximize the utility of simulation models for decision making, accurate estimation of growth parameters and associated variances is crucial. A mixed Gompertz growth model was used to account for between-bird variation and heterogeneous variance. The mixed model had several advantages over the fixed effects model. The mixed model partitioned BW variation into between- and within-bird variation, and the covariance structure assumed with the random effect accounted for part of the BW correlation across ages in the same individual. The amount of residual variance decreased by over 55% with the mixed model. The mixed model reduced estimation biases that resulted from selective sampling. For analysis of longitudinal growth data, the mixed effects growth model is recommended.

  7. Joint Dynamics Modeling and Parameter Identification for Space Robot Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adenilson R. da Silva

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Long-term mission identification and model validation for in-flight manipulator control system in almost zero gravity with hostile space environment are extremely important for robotic applications. In this paper, a robot joint mathematical model is developed where several nonlinearities have been taken into account. In order to identify all the required system parameters, an integrated identification strategy is derived. This strategy makes use of a robust version of least-squares procedure (LS for getting the initial conditions and a general nonlinear optimization method (MCS—multilevel coordinate search—algorithm to estimate the nonlinear parameters. The approach is applied to the intelligent robot joint (IRJ experiment that was developed at DLR for utilization opportunity on the International Space Station (ISS. The results using real and simulated measurements have shown that the developed algorithm and strategy have remarkable features in identifying all the parameters with good accuracy.

  8. Mathematical Modelling and Parameter Optimization of Pulsating Heat Pipes

    CERN Document Server

    Yang, Xin-She; Luan, Tao; Koziel, Slawomir

    2014-01-01

    Proper heat transfer management is important to key electronic components in microelectronic applications. Pulsating heat pipes (PHP) can be an efficient solution to such heat transfer problems. However, mathematical modelling of a PHP system is still very challenging, due to the complexity and multiphysics nature of the system. In this work, we present a simplified, two-phase heat transfer model, and our analysis shows that it can make good predictions about startup characteristics. Furthermore, by considering parameter estimation as a nonlinear constrained optimization problem, we have used the firefly algorithm to find parameter estimates efficiently. We have also demonstrated that it is possible to obtain good estimates of key parameters using very limited experimental data.

  9. The influences of model parameters on the characteristics of memristors

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhou Jing; Huang Da

    2012-01-01

    As the fourth passive circuit component,a memristor is a nonlinear resistor that can "remember" the amount of charge passing through it.The characteristic of "remembering" the charge and non-volatility makes memristors great potential candidates in many fields.Nowadays,only a few groups have the ability to fabricate memristors,and most researchers study them by theoretic analysis and simulation.In this paper,we first analyse the theoretical base and characteristics of memristors,then use a simulation program with integrated circuit emphasis as our tool to simulate the theoretical model of memristors and change the parameters in the model to see the influence of each parameter on the characteristics.Our work supplies researchers engaged in memristor-based circuits with advice on how to choose the proper parameters.

  10. Prediction of interest rate using CKLS model with stochastic parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ying, Khor Chia [Faculty of Computing and Informatics, Multimedia University, Jalan Multimedia, 63100 Cyberjaya, Selangor (Malaysia); Hin, Pooi Ah [Sunway University Business School, No. 5, Jalan Universiti, Bandar Sunway, 47500 Subang Jaya, Selangor (Malaysia)

    2014-06-19

    The Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff and Sanders (CKLS) model is a popular one-factor model for describing the spot interest rates. In this paper, the four parameters in the CKLS model are regarded as stochastic. The parameter vector φ{sup (j)} of four parameters at the (J+n)-th time point is estimated by the j-th window which is defined as the set consisting of the observed interest rates at the j′-th time point where j≤j′≤j+n. To model the variation of φ{sup (j)}, we assume that φ{sup (j)} depends on φ{sup (j−m)}, φ{sup (j−m+1)},…, φ{sup (j−1)} and the interest rate r{sub j+n} at the (j+n)-th time point via a four-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a [4(m+1)+1]-dimensional power-normal distribution. Treating the (j+n)-th time point as the present time point, we find a prediction interval for the future value r{sub j+n+1} of the interest rate at the next time point when the value r{sub j+n} of the interest rate is given. From the above four-dimensional conditional distribution, we also find a prediction interval for the future interest rate r{sub j+n+d} at the next d-th (d≥2) time point. The prediction intervals based on the CKLS model with stochastic parameters are found to have better ability of covering the observed future interest rates when compared with those based on the model with fixed parameters.

  11. Revised Parameters for the AMOEBA Polarizable Atomic Multipole Water Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laury, Marie L; Wang, Lee-Ping; Pande, Vijay S; Head-Gordon, Teresa; Ponder, Jay W

    2015-07-23

    A set of improved parameters for the AMOEBA polarizable atomic multipole water model is developed. An automated procedure, ForceBalance, is used to adjust model parameters to enforce agreement with ab initio-derived results for water clusters and experimental data for a variety of liquid phase properties across a broad temperature range. The values reported here for the new AMOEBA14 water model represent a substantial improvement over the previous AMOEBA03 model. The AMOEBA14 model accurately predicts the temperature of maximum density and qualitatively matches the experimental density curve across temperatures from 249 to 373 K. Excellent agreement is observed for the AMOEBA14 model in comparison to experimental properties as a function of temperature, including the second virial coefficient, enthalpy of vaporization, isothermal compressibility, thermal expansion coefficient, and dielectric constant. The viscosity, self-diffusion constant, and surface tension are also well reproduced. In comparison to high-level ab initio results for clusters of 2-20 water molecules, the AMOEBA14 model yields results similar to AMOEBA03 and the direct polarization iAMOEBA models. With advances in computing power, calibration data, and optimization techniques, we recommend the use of the AMOEBA14 water model for future studies employing a polarizable water model.

  12. A software tool to assess uncertainty in transient-storage model parameters using Monte Carlo simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Adam S.; Kelleher, Christa A.; Mason, Seth J. K.; Wagener, Thorsten; McIntyre, Neil; McGlynn, Brian L.; Runkel, Robert L.; Payn, Robert A.

    2017-01-01

    Researchers and practitioners alike often need to understand and characterize how water and solutes move through a stream in terms of the relative importance of in-stream and near-stream storage and transport processes. In-channel and subsurface storage processes are highly variable in space and time and difficult to measure. Storage estimates are commonly obtained using transient-storage models (TSMs) of the experimentally obtained solute-tracer test data. The TSM equations represent key transport and storage processes with a suite of numerical parameters. Parameter values are estimated via inverse modeling, in which parameter values are iteratively changed until model simulations closely match observed solute-tracer data. Several investigators have shown that TSM parameter estimates can be highly uncertain. When this is the case, parameter values cannot be used reliably to interpret stream-reach functioning. However, authors of most TSM studies do not evaluate or report parameter certainty. Here, we present a software tool linked to the One-dimensional Transport with Inflow and Storage (OTIS) model that enables researchers to conduct uncertainty analyses via Monte-Carlo parameter sampling and to visualize uncertainty and sensitivity results. We demonstrate application of our tool to 2 case studies and compare our results to output obtained from more traditional implementation of the OTIS model. We conclude by suggesting best practices for transient-storage modeling and recommend that future applications of TSMs include assessments of parameter certainty to support comparisons and more reliable interpretations of transport processes.

  13. Comparison of Parameter Estimation Methods for Transformer Weibull Lifetime Modelling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU Dan; LI Chengrong; WANG Zhongdong

    2013-01-01

    Two-parameter Weibull distribution is the most widely adopted lifetime model for power transformers.An appropriate parameter estimation method is essential to guarantee the accuracy of a derived Weibull lifetime model.Six popular parameter estimation methods (i.e.the maximum likelihood estimation method,two median rank regression methods including the one regressing X on Y and the other one regressing Y on X,the Kaplan-Meier method,the method based on cumulative hazard plot,and the Li's method) are reviewed and compared in order to find the optimal one that suits transformer's Weibull lifetime modelling.The comparison took several different scenarios into consideration:10 000 sets of lifetime data,each of which had a sampling size of 40 ~ 1 000 and a censoring rate of 90%,were obtained by Monte-Carlo simulations for each scienario.Scale and shape parameters of Weibull distribution estimated by the six methods,as well as their mean value,median value and 90% confidence band are obtained.The cross comparison of these results reveals that,among the six methods,the maximum likelihood method is the best one,since it could provide the most accurate Weibull parameters,i.e.parameters having the smallest bias in both mean and median values,as well as the shortest length of the 90% confidence band.The maximum likelihood method is therefore recommended to be used over the other methods in transformer Weibull lifetime modelling.

  14. Model parameter uncertainty analysis for an annual field-scale P loss model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolster, Carl H.; Vadas, Peter A.; Boykin, Debbie

    2016-08-01

    Phosphorous (P) fate and transport models are important tools for developing and evaluating conservation practices aimed at reducing P losses from agricultural fields. Because all models are simplifications of complex systems, there will exist an inherent amount of uncertainty associated with their predictions. It is therefore important that efforts be directed at identifying, quantifying, and communicating the different sources of model uncertainties. In this study, we conducted an uncertainty analysis with the Annual P Loss Estimator (APLE) model. Our analysis included calculating parameter uncertainties and confidence and prediction intervals for five internal regression equations in APLE. We also estimated uncertainties of the model input variables based on values reported in the literature. We then predicted P loss for a suite of fields under different management and climatic conditions while accounting for uncertainties in the model parameters and inputs and compared the relative contributions of these two sources of uncertainty to the overall uncertainty associated with predictions of P loss. Both the overall magnitude of the prediction uncertainties and the relative contributions of the two sources of uncertainty varied depending on management practices and field characteristics. This was due to differences in the number of model input variables and the uncertainties in the regression equations associated with each P loss pathway. Inspection of the uncertainties in the five regression equations brought attention to a previously unrecognized limitation with the equation used to partition surface-applied fertilizer P between leaching and runoff losses. As a result, an alternate equation was identified that provided similar predictions with much less uncertainty. Our results demonstrate how a thorough uncertainty and model residual analysis can be used to identify limitations with a model. Such insight can then be used to guide future data collection and model

  15. Spawning Dynamics and Size Related Trends in Reproductive Parameters of Southern Bluefin Tuna, Thunnus maccoyii.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica H Farley

    Full Text Available Knowledge of spawning behaviour and fecundity of fish is important for estimating the reproductive potential of a stock and for constructing appropriate statistical models for assessing sustainable catch levels. Estimates of length-based reproductive parameters are particularly important for determining potential annual fecundity as a function of fish size, but they are often difficult to estimate reliably. Here we provide new information on the reproductive dynamics of southern bluefin tuna (SBT Thunnus maccoyii through the analysis of fish size and ovary histology collected on the spawning ground in 1993-1995 and 1999-2002. These are used to refine previous parameter estimates of spawning dynamics and investigate size related trends in these parameters. Our results suggest that the small SBT tend to arrive on the spawning ground slightly later and depart earlier in the spawning season relative to large fish. All females were mature and the majority were classed as spawning capable (actively spawning or non-spawning with a very small proportion classed as regressing. The fraction of females spawning per day decreased with fish size, but once females start a spawning episode, they spawned daily irrespective of size. Mean batch fecundity was estimated directly at 6.5 million oocytes. Analysis of ovary histology and ovary weight data indicated that relative batch fecundity, and the duration of spawning and non-spawning episodes, increased with fish size. These reproductive parameter estimates could be used with estimates of residency time on the spawning ground as a function of fish size (if known and demographic data for the spawning population to provide a time series of relative annual fecundity for SBT.

  16. Calculation of Thermodynamic Parameters for Freundlich and Temkin Isotherm Models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANGZENGQIANG; ZHANGYIPING; 等

    1999-01-01

    Derivation of the Freundlich and Temkin isotherm models from the kinetic adsorption/desorption equations was carried out to calculate their thermodynamic equilibrium constants.The calculation formulase of three thermodynamic parameters,the standard molar Gibbs free energy change,the standard molar enthalpy change and the standard molar entropy change,of isothermal adsorption processes for Freundlich and Temkin isotherm models were deduced according to the relationship between the thermodynamic equilibrium constants and the temperature.

  17. Parameter Estimation for a Computable General Equilibrium Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Robinson, Sherman; Tarp, Finn

    2002-01-01

    We introduce a maximum entropy approach to parameter estimation for computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The approach applies information theory to estimating a system of non-linear simultaneous equations. It has a number of advantages. First, it imposes all general equilibrium constraints...

  18. Parabolic problems with parameters arising in evolution model for phytromediation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahmurova, Aida; Shakhmurov, Veli

    2012-12-01

    The past few decades, efforts have been made to clean sites polluted by heavy metals as chromium. One of the new innovative methods of eradicating metals from soil is phytoremediation. This uses plants to pull metals from the soil through the roots. This work develops a system of differential equations with parameters to model the plant metal interaction of phytoremediation (see [1]).

  19. Lumped-parameter Model of a Bucket Foundation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars; Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, Morten

    2009-01-01

    As an alternative to gravity footings or pile foundations, offshore wind turbines at shallow water can be placed on a bucket foundation. The present analysis concerns the development of consistent lumped-parameter models for this type of foundation. The aim is to formulate a computationally effic...

  20. Improved parameter estimation for hydrological models using weighted object functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stein, A.; Zaadnoordijk, W.J.

    1999-01-01

    This paper discusses the sensitivity of calibration of hydrological model parameters to different objective functions. Several functions are defined with weights depending upon the hydrological background. These are compared with an objective function based upon kriging. Calibration is applied to pi

  1. Parameter Estimation for a Computable General Equilibrium Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Robinson, Sherman; Tarp, Finn

    We introduce a maximum entropy approach to parameter estimation for computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The approach applies information theory to estimating a system of nonlinear simultaneous equations. It has a number of advantages. First, it imposes all general equilibrium constraints...

  2. PARAMETER ESTIMATION IN LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS FOR LONGITUDINAL CONTAMINATED DATA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    QianWeimin; LiYumei

    2005-01-01

    The parameter estimation and the coefficient of contamination for the regression models with repeated measures are studied when its response variables are contaminated by another random variable sequence. Under the suitable conditions it is proved that the estimators which are established in the paper are strongly consistent estimators.

  3. Modeling and simulation of HTS cables for scattering parameter analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bang, Su Sik; Lee, Geon Seok; Kwon, Gu-Young; Lee, Yeong Ho; Chang, Seung Jin; Lee, Chun-Kwon; Sohn, Songho; Park, Kijun; Shin, Yong-June

    2016-11-01

    Most of modeling and simulation of high temperature superconducting (HTS) cables are inadequate for high frequency analysis since focus of the simulation's frequency is fundamental frequency of the power grid, which does not reflect transient characteristic. However, high frequency analysis is essential process to research the HTS cables transient for protection and diagnosis of the HTS cables. Thus, this paper proposes a new approach for modeling and simulation of HTS cables to derive the scattering parameter (S-parameter), an effective high frequency analysis, for transient wave propagation characteristics in high frequency range. The parameters sweeping method is used to validate the simulation results to the measured data given by a network analyzer (NA). This paper also presents the effects of the cable-to-NA connector in order to minimize the error between the simulated and the measured data under ambient and superconductive conditions. Based on the proposed modeling and simulation technique, S-parameters of long-distance HTS cables can be accurately derived in wide range of frequency. The results of proposed modeling and simulation can yield the characteristics of the HTS cables and will contribute to analyze the HTS cables.

  4. A systematic study of Lyman-Alpha transfer through outflowing shells: Model parameter estimation

    CERN Document Server

    Gronke, Max; Dijkstra, Mark

    2015-01-01

    Outflows promote the escape of Lyman-$\\alpha$ (Ly$\\alpha$) photons from dusty interstellar media. The process of radiative transfer through interstellar outflows is often modelled by a spherically symmetric, geometrically thin shell of gas that scatters photons emitted by a central Ly$\\alpha$ source. Despite its simplified geometry, this `shell model' has been surprisingly successful at reproducing observed Ly$\\alpha$ line shapes. In this paper we perform automated line fitting on a set of noisy simulated shell model spectra, in order to determine whether degeneracies exist between the different shell model parameters. While there are some significant degeneracies, we find that most parameters are accurately recovered, especially the HI column density ($N_{\\rm HI}$) and outflow velocity ($v_{\\rm exp}$). This work represents an important first step in determining how the shell model parameters relate to the actual physical properties of Ly$\\alpha$ sources. To aid further exploration of the parameter space, we ...

  5. Relating auditory attributes of multichannel sound to preference and to physical parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Choisel, Sylvain; Wickelmaier, Florian Maria

    2006-01-01

    Sound reproduced by multichannel systems is affected by many factors giving rise to various sensations, or auditory attributes. Relating specific attributes to overall preference and to physical measures of the sound field provides valuable information for a better understanding of the parameters...... playing a role in sound quality evaluation. Eight selected attributes are quantified by a panel of 39 listeners using paired-comparison judgments and probabilistic choice models, and related to overall preference. A multiple-regression model predicts preference well, and some similarities are observed...... within and between musical program materials, allowing for a careful generalization regarding the perception of spatial audio reproduction. Finally, a set of objective measures is derived from analysis of the sound field at the listening position in an attempt to predict the auditory attributes....

  6. A method to estimate the absolute ultrasonic nonlinearity parameter from relative measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jongbeom; Song, Dong-Gi; Jhang, Kyung-Young

    2017-02-17

    The ultrasonic nonlinearity parameter, β, is determined from the displacement amplitude of the second-order harmonic frequency component generated during the propagation of ultrasonic waves through a material. This parameter is generally referred to as the absolute parameter. Meanwhile, it is difficult to measure the small displacement amplitude of the second-order harmonic component; therefore, most studies measure the relative parameter determined from the detected signal amplitude. However, for quantitative assessment of material degradation, the absolute parameter is still required. This study proposes a method to estimate the absolute parameter for damaged material by measuring the relative parameter. This method is based on the fact that the fractional ratio of the relative parameters between different materials is identical to that of the absolute parameters after compensation for material dependent differences such as the wavenumber and detection-sensitivity. In order to experimentally verify the method, the relative parameters of heat-treated Al6061-T6 alloy specimens with different aging times were measured to compare with absolute parameters directly measured by piezo-electric detection. The results show that the fluctuations of both parameters with respect to aging time were very similar to each other, and that the absolute parameters estimated by the proposed method were in good agreement with those measured directly.

  7. Inverse problem for biomedical applications: use of prior information on target and forward model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martelli, Fabrizio; Del Bianco, Samuele; Zaccanti, Giovanni

    2011-02-01

    We propose the use of a retrieval operator for biomedical applications in near-infrared spectroscopy. The proposed retrieval operator is based on the "Optimal Estimation" method. The main characteristic of this method relates to the possibility to include prior information both on target and on forward model parameters of the inversion procedure. The possibility of the retrieval operator to elaborate a-priori information can in principle be a benefit for the whole retrieval procedure. This means that a larger number of target parameters can be retrieved, or that a better accuracy can be achieved in retrieving the target parameters. The final goal of this inversion procedure is to have an improved estimate of the target parameters. The procedure has been tested on time-resolved simulated experiments obtained with a Monte Carlo code. The results obtained show that an improved performance of the inversion procedure is achieved when prior information on target and forward model parameters is available. With the use of a priori information on target parameters we have in average a lower difference between the retrieved values of the parameters and their true values, and the error bars determined by the inversion procedure on the retrieved parameters are significantly lower. At the same time a good estimate of the errors on the forward model parameters can significantly improve the retrieval of the target parameters.

  8. Evaluation of some infiltration models and hydraulic parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haghighi, F.; Gorji, M.; Shorafa, M.; Sarmadian, F.; Mohammadi, M. H.

    2010-07-01

    The evaluation of infiltration characteristics and some parameters of infiltration models such as sorptivity and final steady infiltration rate in soils are important in agriculture. The aim of this study was to evaluate some of the most common models used to estimate final soil infiltration rate. The equality of final infiltration rate with saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) was also tested. Moreover, values of the estimated sorptivity from the Philips model were compared to estimates by selected pedotransfer functions (PTFs). The infiltration experiments used the doublering method on soils with two different land uses in the Taleghan watershed of Tehran province, Iran, from September to October, 2007. The infiltration models of Kostiakov-Lewis, Philip two-term and Horton were fitted to observed infiltration data. Some parameters of the models and the coefficient of determination goodness of fit were estimated using MATLAB software. The results showed that, based on comparing measured and model-estimated infiltration rate using root mean squared error (RMSE), Hortons model gave the best prediction of final infiltration rate in the experimental area. Laboratory measured Ks values gave significant differences and higher values than estimated final infiltration rates from the selected models. The estimated final infiltration rate was not equal to laboratory measured Ks values in the study area. Moreover, the estimated sorptivity factor by Philips model was significantly different to those estimated by selected PTFs. It is suggested that the applicability of PTFs is limited to specific, similar conditions. (Author) 37 refs.

  9. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    K. Rasmuson; K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-09-14

    This analysis is one of 10 technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) (i.e., the biosphere model). It documents development of agricultural and environmental input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters.

  10. A practical method to assess model sensitivity and parameter uncertainty in C cycle models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delahaies, Sylvain; Roulstone, Ian; Nichols, Nancy

    2015-04-01

    The carbon cycle combines multiple spatial and temporal scales, from minutes to hours for the chemical processes occurring in plant cells to several hundred of years for the exchange between the atmosphere and the deep ocean and finally to millennia for the formation of fossil fuels. Together with our knowledge of the transformation processes involved in the carbon cycle, many Earth Observation systems are now available to help improving models and predictions using inverse modelling techniques. A generic inverse problem consists in finding a n-dimensional state vector x such that h(x) = y, for a given N-dimensional observation vector y, including random noise, and a given model h. The problem is well posed if the three following conditions hold: 1) there exists a solution, 2) the solution is unique and 3) the solution depends continuously on the input data. If at least one of these conditions is violated the problem is said ill-posed. The inverse problem is often ill-posed, a regularization method is required to replace the original problem with a well posed problem and then a solution strategy amounts to 1) constructing a solution x, 2) assessing the validity of the solution, 3) characterizing its uncertainty. The data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model is a simple box model simulating the carbon budget allocation for terrestrial ecosystems. Intercomparison experiments have demonstrated the relative merit of various inverse modelling strategies (MCMC, ENKF) to estimate model parameters and initial carbon stocks for DALEC using eddy covariance measurements of net ecosystem exchange of CO2 and leaf area index observations. Most results agreed on the fact that parameters and initial stocks directly related to fast processes were best estimated with narrow confidence intervals, whereas those related to slow processes were poorly estimated with very large uncertainties. While other studies have tried to overcome this difficulty by adding complementary

  11. Parameter identification and calibration of the Xin'anjiang model using the surrogate modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Yan; Song, Xiaomeng; Zhang, Jianyun; Kong, Fanzhe; Ma, Guangwen

    2014-06-01

    Practical experience has demonstrated that single objective functions, no matter how carefully chosen, prove to be inadequate in providing proper measurements for all of the characteristics of the observed data. One strategy to circumvent this problem is to define multiple fitting criteria that measure different aspects of system behavior, and to use multi-criteria optimization to identify non-dominated optimal solutions. Unfortunately, these analyses require running original simulation models thousands of times. As such, they demand prohibitively large computational budgets. As a result, surrogate models have been used in combination with a variety of multi-objective optimization algorithms to approximate the true Pareto-front within limited evaluations for the original model. In this study, multi-objective optimization based on surrogate modeling (multivariate adaptive regression splines, MARS) for a conceptual rainfall-runoff model (Xin'anjiang model, XAJ) was proposed. Taking the Yanduhe basin of Three Gorges in the upper stream of the Yangtze River in China as a case study, three evaluation criteria were selected to quantify the goodness-of-fit of observations against calculated values from the simulation model. The three criteria chosen were the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient, the relative error of peak flow, and runoff volume (REPF and RERV). The efficacy of this method is demonstrated on the calibration of the XAJ model. Compared to the single objective optimization results, it was indicated that the multi-objective optimization method can infer the most probable parameter set. The results also demonstrate that the use of surrogate-modeling enables optimization that is much more efficient; and the total computational cost is reduced by about 92.5%, compared to optimization without using surrogate modeling. The results obtained with the proposed method support the feasibility of applying parameter optimization to computationally intensive simulation

  12. A Model for International Relations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Since the end of the Cold War, the new international environment has required a new model of relationship between major countries. The basis of the new relations is to safeguard one's own national interests while respecting the national interests of the other country. The process of establishing such rela-

  13. Estimating model parameters in nonautonomous chaotic systems using synchronization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xiaoli; Xu, Wei; Sun, Zhongkui

    2007-05-01

    In this Letter, a technique is addressed for estimating unknown model parameters of multivariate, in particular, nonautonomous chaotic systems from time series of state variables. This technique uses an adaptive strategy for tracking unknown parameters in addition to a linear feedback coupling for synchronizing systems, and then some general conditions, by means of the periodic version of the LaSalle invariance principle for differential equations, are analytically derived to ensure precise evaluation of unknown parameters and identical synchronization between the concerned experimental system and its corresponding receiver one. Exemplifies are presented by employing a parametrically excited 4D new oscillator and an additionally excited Ueda oscillator. The results of computer simulations reveal that the technique not only can quickly track the desired parameter values but also can rapidly respond to changes in operating parameters. In addition, the technique can be favorably robust against the effect of noise when the experimental system is corrupted by bounded disturbance and the normalized absolute error of parameter estimation grows almost linearly with the cutoff value of noise strength in simulation.

  14. Estimating model parameters in nonautonomous chaotic systems using synchronization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Xiaoli [Department of Applied Mathematics, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi' an 710072 (China)]. E-mail: yangxl205@mail.nwpu.edu.cn; Xu, Wei [Department of Applied Mathematics, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi' an 710072 (China); Sun, Zhongkui [Department of Applied Mathematics, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi' an 710072 (China)

    2007-05-07

    In this Letter, a technique is addressed for estimating unknown model parameters of multivariate, in particular, nonautonomous chaotic systems from time series of state variables. This technique uses an adaptive strategy for tracking unknown parameters in addition to a linear feedback coupling for synchronizing systems, and then some general conditions, by means of the periodic version of the LaSalle invariance principle for differential equations, are analytically derived to ensure precise evaluation of unknown parameters and identical synchronization between the concerned experimental system and its corresponding receiver one. Exemplifies are presented by employing a parametrically excited 4D new oscillator and an additionally excited Ueda oscillator. The results of computer simulations reveal that the technique not only can quickly track the desired parameter values but also can rapidly respond to changes in operating parameters. In addition, the technique can be favorably robust against the effect of noise when the experimental system is corrupted by bounded disturbance and the normalized absolute error of parameter estimation grows almost linearly with the cutoff value of noise strength in simulation.

  15. Estimating material parameters of a structurally based constitutive relation for skin mechanics

    KAUST Repository

    Jor, Jessica W. Y.

    2010-11-25

    This paper presents a structurally based modeling framework to characterize the structure-function relation in skin tissues, based upon biaxial tensile experiments performed in vitro on porcine skin. Equi-axial deformations were imposed by stretching circular skin specimens uniformly along twelve directions, and the resultant loads at the membrane attachment points were measured. Displacement fields at each deformation step were tracked using an image 2D cross-correlation technique. A modeling framework was developed to simulate the experiments, whereby measured forces were applied to finite element models that were created to represent the geometry and structure of the tissue samples. Parameters of a structurally based constitutive relation were then identified using nonlinear optimization. Results showed that the ground matrix stiffness ranged from 5 to 32 kPa, fiber orientation mean from 2 to 13. from the torso midline, fiber undulation mean from 1.04 to 1.34 and collagen fiber stiffness from 48 to 366 MPa. It was concluded that the objective function was highly sensitive to the mean orientation and that a priori information about fiber orientation mean was important for the reliable identification of constitutive parameters. © Springer-Verlag 2010.

  16. MATHEMATICAL MODEL AND CALCULATING METHOD OF PARAMETERS FOR TWIST DRILL HYPERBOL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WangMin; ZuoDunwen; LiChao

    2002-01-01

    Mathematical model for hyperboloid grinding of twist drill and relationships between drill design and grinding parameters are introduced.Point angles at outer corner and chisel edge corner are proposed to be used as the drill design parameters to determine the type uniquely and the relicf andgle is used as a supplement parameter.Function relations between the twist drill design and the grinding parameters are derived.Hence a theeoretical basis is estab-lised for design and grinding of the hyperboloid twist drill.

  17. Multiscale Parameter Regionalization for consistent global water resources modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanders, Niko; Wood, Eric; Pan, Ming; Samaniego, Luis; Thober, Stephan; Kumar, Rohini; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

    2017-04-01

    Due to an increasing demand for high- and hyper-resolution water resources information, it has become increasingly important to ensure consistency in model simulations across scales. This consistency can be ensured by scale independent parameterization of the land surface processes, even after calibration of the water resource model. Here, we use the Multiscale Parameter Regionalization technique (MPR, Samaniego et al. 2010, WRR) to allow for a novel, spatially consistent, scale independent parameterization of the global water resource model PCR-GLOBWB. The implementation of MPR in PCR-GLOBWB allows for calibration at coarse resolutions and subsequent parameter transfer to the hyper-resolution. In this study, the model was calibrated at 50 km resolution over Europe and validation carried out at resolutions of 50 km, 10 km and 1 km. MPR allows for a direct transfer of the calibrated transfer function parameters across scales and we find that we can maintain consistent land-atmosphere fluxes across scales. Here we focus on the 2003 European drought and show that the new parameterization allows for high-resolution calibrated simulations of water resources during the drought. For example, we find a reduction from 29% to 9.4% in the percentile difference in the annual evaporative flux across scales when compared against default simulations. Soil moisture errors are reduced from 25% to 6.9%, clearly indicating the benefits of the MPR implementation. This new parameterization allows us to show more spatial detail in water resources simulations that are consistent across scales and also allow validation of discharge for smaller catchments, even with calibrations at a coarse 50 km resolution. The implementation of MPR allows for novel high-resolution calibrated simulations of a global water resources model, providing calibrated high-resolution model simulations with transferred parameter sets from coarse resolutions. The applied methodology can be transferred to other

  18. Model and parameter uncertainty in IDF relationships under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandra, Rupa; Saha, Ujjwal; Mujumdar, P. P.

    2015-05-01

    Quantifying distributional behavior of extreme events is crucial in hydrologic designs. Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships are used extensively in engineering especially in urban hydrology, to obtain return level of extreme rainfall event for a specified return period and duration. Major sources of uncertainty in the IDF relationships are due to insufficient quantity and quality of data leading to parameter uncertainty due to the distribution fitted to the data and uncertainty as a result of using multiple GCMs. It is important to study these uncertainties and propagate them to future for accurate assessment of return levels for future. The objective of this study is to quantify the uncertainties arising from parameters of the distribution fitted to data and the multiple GCM models using Bayesian approach. Posterior distribution of parameters is obtained from Bayes rule and the parameters are transformed to obtain return levels for a specified return period. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method using Metropolis Hastings algorithm is used to obtain the posterior distribution of parameters. Twenty six CMIP5 GCMs along with four RCP scenarios are considered for studying the effects of climate change and to obtain projected IDF relationships for the case study of Bangalore city in India. GCM uncertainty due to the use of multiple GCMs is treated using Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) technique along with the parameter uncertainty. Scale invariance theory is employed for obtaining short duration return levels from daily data. It is observed that the uncertainty in short duration rainfall return levels is high when compared to the longer durations. Further it is observed that parameter uncertainty is large compared to the model uncertainty.

  19. SVM model for estimating the parameters of the probability-integral method of predicting mining subsidence

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Hua; WANG Yun-jia; LI Yong-feng

    2009-01-01

    A new mathematical model to estimate the parameters of the probability-integral method for mining subsidence prediction is proposed. Based on least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) theory, it is capable of improving the precision and reliability of mining subsidence prediction. Many of the geological and mining factors involved are related in a nonlinear way. The new model is based on statistical theory (SLT) and empirical risk minimization (ERM) principles. Typical data collected from observation stations were used for the learning and training samples. The calculated results from the LS-SVM model were compared with the prediction results of a back propagation neural network (BPNN) model. The results show that the parameters were more precisely predicted by the LS-SVM model than by the BPNN model. The LS-SVM model was faster in computation and had better generalized performance. It provides a highly effective method for calculating the predicting parameters of the probability-integral method.

  20. Atomic modeling of cryo-electron microscopy reconstructions--joint refinement of model and imaging parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Michael S; Trzynka, Andrew; Chapman, Brynmor K

    2013-04-01

    When refining the fit of component atomic structures into electron microscopic reconstructions, use of a resolution-dependent atomic density function makes it possible to jointly optimize the atomic model and imaging parameters of the microscope. Atomic density is calculated by one-dimensional Fourier transform of atomic form factors convoluted with a microscope envelope correction and a low-pass filter, allowing refinement of imaging parameters such as resolution, by optimizing the agreement of calculated and experimental maps. A similar approach allows refinement of atomic displacement parameters, providing indications of molecular flexibility even at low resolution. A modest improvement in atomic coordinates is possible following optimization of these additional parameters. Methods have been implemented in a Python program that can be used in stand-alone mode for rigid-group refinement, or embedded in other optimizers for flexible refinement with stereochemical restraints. The approach is demonstrated with refinements of virus and chaperonin structures at resolutions of 9 through 4.5 Å, representing regimes where rigid-group and fully flexible parameterizations are appropriate. Through comparisons to known crystal structures, flexible fitting by RSRef is shown to be an improvement relative to other methods and to generate models with all-atom rms accuracies of 1.5-2.5 Å at resolutions of 4.5-6 Å.

  1. Lake and lake-related drainage area parameters for site investigation program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blomqvist, P.; Brunberg, A.K. [Uppsala Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Limnology; Brydsten, L [Umeaa Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Ecology and Environmental Science

    2000-09-01

    In this paper, a number of parameters of importance to a preliminary determination of the ecological function of lakes are presented. The choice of parameters have been made with respect to a model for the determination of the nature conservation values of lakes which is currently being developed by the authors of this report, but is also well suited for a general description of the lake type and the functioning of the inherent ecosystem. The parameters have been divided into five groups: (1) The location of the object relative important gradients in the surrounding nature; (2) The lake catchment area and its major constituents; (3) The lake morphometry; (4) The lake ecosystem; (5) Human-induced damages to the lake ecosystem. The first two groups, principally based on the climate, hydrology, geology and vegetation of the catchment area represent parameters that can be used to establish the rarity and representativity of the lake, and will in the context of site investigation program be used as a basis for generalisation of the results. The third group, the lake morphometry parameters, are standard parameters for the outline of sampling programmes and for calculations of the physical extension of different key habitats in the system. The fourth group, the ecosystem of the lake, includes physical, chemical and biological parameters required for determination of the stratification pattern, light climate, influence from the terrestrial ecosystem of the catchment area, trophic status, distribution of key habitats, and presence of fish and rare fauna and flora in the lake. In the context of site investigation program, the parameters in these two groups will be used for budget calculations of the flow of energy and material in the system. The fifth group, finally, describes the degree on anthropogenic influence on the ecosystem and will in the context of site investigation programmes be used to judge eventual malfunctioning within the entire, or parts of, the lake

  2. Reduced parameter model on trajectory tracking data with applications

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王正明; 朱炬波

    1999-01-01

    The data fusion in tracking the same trajectory by multi-measurernent unit (MMU) is considered. Firstly, the reduced parameter model (RPM) of trajectory parameter (TP), system error and random error are presented,and then the RPM on trajectory tracking data (TTD) is obtained, a weighted method on measuring elements (ME) is studied and criteria on selection of ME based on residual and accuracy estimation are put forward. According to RPM,the problem about selection of ME and self-calibration of TTD is thoroughly investigated. The method improves data accuracy in trajectory tracking obviously and gives accuracy evaluation of trajectory tracking system simultaneously.

  3. Parameter Estimation of the Extended Vasiček Model

    OpenAIRE

    Rujivan, Sanae

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, an estimate of the drift and diffusion parameters of the extended Vasiček model is presented. The estimate is based on the method of maximum likelihood. We derive a closed-form expansion for the transition (probability) density of the extended Vasiček process and use the expansion to construct an approximate log-likelihood function of a discretely sampled data of the process. Approximate maximum likelihood estimators (AMLEs) of the parameters are obtained by maximizing the appr...

  4. Prediction of mortality rates using a model with stochastic parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Chon Sern; Pooi, Ah Hin

    2016-10-01

    Prediction of future mortality rates is crucial to insurance companies because they face longevity risks while providing retirement benefits to a population whose life expectancy is increasing. In the past literature, a time series model based on multivariate power-normal distribution has been applied on mortality data from the United States for the years 1933 till 2000 to forecast the future mortality rates for the years 2001 till 2010. In this paper, a more dynamic approach based on the multivariate time series will be proposed where the model uses stochastic parameters that vary with time. The resulting prediction intervals obtained using the model with stochastic parameters perform better because apart from having good ability in covering the observed future mortality rates, they also tend to have distinctly shorter interval lengths.

  5. Probabilistic Constraint Programming for Parameters Optimisation of Generative Models

    CERN Document Server

    Zanin, Massimiliano; Sousa, Pedro A C; Cruz, Jorge

    2015-01-01

    Complex networks theory has commonly been used for modelling and understanding the interactions taking place between the elements composing complex systems. More recently, the use of generative models has gained momentum, as they allow identifying which forces and mechanisms are responsible for the appearance of given structural properties. In spite of this interest, several problems remain open, one of the most important being the design of robust mechanisms for finding the optimal parameters of a generative model, given a set of real networks. In this contribution, we address this problem by means of Probabilistic Constraint Programming. By using as an example the reconstruction of networks representing brain dynamics, we show how this approach is superior to other solutions, in that it allows a better characterisation of the parameters space, while requiring a significantly lower computational cost.

  6. Mark-recapture models with parameters constant in time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolly, G M

    1982-06-01

    The Jolly-Seber method, which allows for both death and immigration, is easy to apply but often requires a larger number of parameters to be estimated tha would otherwise be necessary. If (i) survival rate, phi, or (ii) probability of capture, p, or (iii) both phi and p can be assumed constant over the experimental period, models with a reduced number of parameters are desirable. In the present paper, maximum likelihood (ML) solutions for these three situations are derived from the general ML equations of Jolly [1979, in Sampling Biological Populations, R. M. Cormack, G. P. Patil and D. S. Robson (eds), 277-282]. A test is proposed for heterogeneity arising from a breakdown of assumptions in the general Jolly-Seber model. Tests for constancy of phi and p are provided. An example is given, in which these models are fitted to data from a local butterfly population.

  7. Enhancing debris flow modeling parameters integrating Bayesian networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graf, C.; Stoffel, M.; Grêt-Regamey, A.

    2009-04-01

    Applied debris-flow modeling requires suitably constraint input parameter sets. Depending on the used model, there is a series of parameters to define before running the model. Normally, the data base describing the event, the initiation conditions, the flow behavior, the deposition process and mainly the potential range of possible debris flow events in a certain torrent is limited. There are only some scarce places in the world, where we fortunately can find valuable data sets describing event history of debris flow channels delivering information on spatial and temporal distribution of former flow paths and deposition zones. Tree-ring records in combination with detailed geomorphic mapping for instance provide such data sets over a long time span. Considering the significant loss potential associated with debris-flow disasters, it is crucial that decisions made in regard to hazard mitigation are based on a consistent assessment of the risks. This in turn necessitates a proper assessment of the uncertainties involved in the modeling of the debris-flow frequencies and intensities, the possible run out extent, as well as the estimations of the damage potential. In this study, we link a Bayesian network to a Geographic Information System in order to assess debris-flow risk. We identify the major sources of uncertainty and show the potential of Bayesian inference techniques to improve the debris-flow model. We model the flow paths and deposition zones of a highly active debris-flow channel in the Swiss Alps using the numerical 2-D model RAMMS. Because uncertainties in run-out areas cause large changes in risk estimations, we use the data of flow path and deposition zone information of reconstructed debris-flow events derived from dendrogeomorphological analysis covering more than 400 years to update the input parameters of the RAMMS model. The probabilistic model, which consistently incorporates this available information, can serve as a basis for spatial risk

  8. Time-varying parameter auto-regressive models for autocovariance nonstationary time series

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FEI WanChun; BAI Lun

    2009-01-01

    In this paper,autocovariance nonstationary time series is clearly defined on a family of time series.We propose three types of TVPAR (time-varying parameter auto-regressive) models:the full order TVPAR model,the time-unvarying order TVPAR model and the time-varying order TVPAR model for autocovariance nonstationary time series.Related minimum AIC (Akaike information criterion) estimations are carried out.

  9. Time-varying parameter auto-regressive models for autocovariance nonstationary time series

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, autocovariance nonstationary time series is clearly defined on a family of time series. We propose three types of TVPAR (time-varying parameter auto-regressive) models: the full order TVPAR model, the time-unvarying order TVPAR model and the time-varying order TV-PAR model for autocovariance nonstationary time series. Related minimum AIC (Akaike information criterion) estimations are carried out.

  10. A study of relative permeability parameters on rock cores using a two-phase flow test

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chung-Hui Chiao

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available To ensure sequestration safety, confirming the injectivity of the reservoir rock formation is of critical importance, requiring studies of the rock permeability to uncover the fluid migration scenarios within the porous reservoir rock. Two-phase (super-critical CO2-brine flow behavior following the post CO2 injection is believed to be a dominating factor; its flooding behavior within the porous rock media needs to be further clarified prior to confirming the feasibility of domestic CO2 geo-sequestration. This study aims to determine the relative permeability of rock cores obtained from field outcropping. A test facility was established to determine the relative permeability during drainage and imbibition processes using a core-flooding test characterized by displacement method. The test facility was assembled locally and is regarded as a pioneering attempt. By relevant data interpretation, the parameters of relative permeability for predicting the movement of super-critical CO2 after injection can be modeled. More reliable parameters can be obtained using history matching processes wherein time-elapsed data calibration is used in conjunction with a computer code, TOUGH2. The test results were iteratively calibrated using numerical simulation by conducting a history matching process. The K-S curves derived from best-fit parameters are believed to be the most relevant relative permeability for the reservoir rock. Through this preliminary study, a better understanding of some of the problems and limitations associated with the determination of the rock relative permeability using two-phase flow test is achieved, but more advanced research is required.

  11. Singularity of Some Software Reliability Models and Parameter Estimation Method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    According to the principle, “The failure data is the basis of software reliability analysis”, we built a software reliability expert system (SRES) by adopting the artificial intelligence technology. By reasoning out the conclusion from the fitting results of failure data of a software project, the SRES can recommend users “the most suitable model” as a software reliability measurement model. We believe that the SRES can overcome the inconsistency in applications of software reliability models well. We report investigation results of singularity and parameter estimation methods of experimental models in SRES.

  12. Parameter Identifiability of Ship Manoeuvring Modeling Using System Identification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weilin Luo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available To improve the feasibility of system identification in the prediction of ship manoeuvrability, several measures are presented to deal with the parameter identifiability in the parametric modeling of ship manoeuvring motion based on system identification. Drift of nonlinear hydrodynamic coefficients is explained from the point of view of regression analysis. To diminish the multicollinearity in a complicated manoeuvring model, difference method and additional signal method are employed to reconstruct the samples. Moreover, the structure of manoeuvring model is simplified based on correlation analysis. Manoeuvring simulation is performed to demonstrate the validity of the measures proposed.

  13. A Fundamental Parameter-Based Calibration Model for an Intrinsic Germanium X-Ray Fluorescence Spectrometer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Leif Højslet; Pind, Niels

    1982-01-01

    secondary target a number of relative calibration constants are calculated on the basis of knowledge of the irradiation geometry, the detector specifications, and tabulated fundamental physical parameters. The absolute calibration of the spectrometer is performed by measuring one pure element standard per......A matrix-independent fundamental parameter-based calibration model for an energy-dispersive X-ray fluorescence spectrometer has been developed. This model, which is part of a fundamental parameter approach quantification method, accounts for both the excitation and detection probability. For each...

  14. INFLUENCE OF PROCESS PARAMETERS ON DIMENSIONAL ACCURACY OF PARTS MANUFACTURED USING FUSED DEPOSITION MODELLING TECHNOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filip Górski

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the results of experimental study – part of research of additive technology using thermoplastics as a build material, namely Fused Deposition Modelling (FDM. Aim of the study was to identify the relation between basic parameter of the FDM process – model orientation during manufacturing – and a dimensional accuracy and repeatability of obtained products. A set of samples was prepared – they were manufactured with variable process parameters and they were measured using 3D scanner. Significant differences in accuracy of products of the same geometry, but manufactured with different set of process parameters were observed.

  15. Sensitivity analysis of CLIMEX parameters in modeling potential distribution of Phoenix dactylifera L.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farzin Shabani

    Full Text Available Using CLIMEX and the Taguchi Method, a process-based niche model was developed to estimate potential distributions of Phoenix dactylifera L. (date palm, an economically important crop in many counties. Development of the model was based on both its native and invasive distribution and validation was carried out in terms of its extensive distribution in Iran. To identify model parameters having greatest influence on distribution of date palm, a sensitivity analysis was carried out. Changes in suitability were established by mapping of regions where the estimated distribution changed with parameter alterations. This facilitated the assessment of certain areas in Iran where parameter modifications impacted the most, particularly in relation to suitable and highly suitable locations. Parameter sensitivities were also evaluated by the calculation of area changes within the suitable and highly suitable categories. The low temperature limit (DV2, high temperature limit (DV3, upper optimal temperature (SM2 and high soil moisture limit (SM3 had the greatest impact on sensitivity, while other parameters showed relatively less sensitivity or were insensitive to change. For an accurate fit in species distribution models, highly sensitive parameters require more extensive research and data collection methods. Results of this study demonstrate a more cost effective method for developing date palm distribution models, an integral element in species management, and may prove useful for streamlining requirements for data collection in potential distribution modeling for other species as well.

  16. Minimum information modelling of structural systems with uncertain parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyland, D. C.

    1983-01-01

    Work is reviewed wherein the design of active structural control is formulated as the mean-square optimal control of a linear mechanical system with stochastic parameters. In practice, a complete probabilistic description of model parameters can never be provided by empirical determinations, and a suitable design approach must accept very limited a priori data on parameter statistics. In consequence, the mean-square optimization problem is formulated using a complete probability assignment which is made to be consistent with available data but maximally unconstrained otherwise through use of a maximum entropy principle. The ramifications of this approach for both robustness and large dimensionality are illustrated by consideration of the full-state feedback regulation problem.

  17. Parameter estimation in a spatial unit root autoregressive model

    CERN Document Server

    Baran, Sándor

    2011-01-01

    Spatial autoregressive model $X_{k,\\ell}=\\alpha X_{k-1,\\ell}+\\beta X_{k,\\ell-1}+\\gamma X_{k-1,\\ell-1}+\\epsilon_{k,\\ell}$ is investigated in the unit root case, that is when the parameters are on the boundary of the domain of stability that forms a tetrahedron with vertices $(1,1,-1), \\ (1,-1,1),\\ (-1,1,1)$ and $(-1,-1,-1)$. It is shown that the limiting distribution of the least squares estimator of the parameters is normal and the rate of convergence is $n$ when the parameters are in the faces or on the edges of the tetrahedron, while on the vertices the rate is $n^{3/2}$.

  18. Parameter Estimation for an Electric Arc Furnace Model Using Maximum Likelihood

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesser J. Marulanda-Durango

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present a methodology for estimating the parameters of a model for an electrical arc furnace, by using maximum likelihood estimation. Maximum likelihood estimation is one of the most employed methods for parameter estimation in practical settings. The model for the electrical arc furnace that we consider, takes into account the non-periodic and non-linear variations in the voltage-current characteristic. We use NETLAB, an open source MATLAB® toolbox, for solving a set of non-linear algebraic equations that relate all the parameters to be estimated. Results obtained through simulation of the model in PSCADTM, are contrasted against real measurements taken during the furnance's most critical operating point. We show how the model for the electrical arc furnace, with appropriate parameter tuning, captures with great detail the real voltage and current waveforms generated by the system. Results obtained show a maximum error of 5% for the current's root mean square error.

  19. Optimization of Soil Hydraulic Model Parameters Using Synthetic Aperture Radar Data: An Integrated Multidisciplinary Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pauwels, Valentijn; Balenzano, Anna; Satalino, Giuseppe

    2009-01-01

    It is widely recognized that Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data are a very valuable source of information for the modeling of the interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere. During the last couple of decades, most of the research on the use of SAR data in hydrologic applications has...... been focused on the retrieval of land and biogeophysical parameters (e.g., soil moisture contents). One relatively unexplored issue consists of the optimization of soil hydraulic model parameters, such its, for example, hydraulic conductivity, values, through remote sensing. This is due to the fact...... that no direct relationships between the remote-sensing observations, more specifically radar backscatter values, and the parameter values can be derived. However, land surface models can provide these relationships. The objective of this paper is to retrieve a number of soil physical model parameters through...

  20. Damage constitutive model for strain-softening rock based on normal distribution and its parameter determination

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    Firstly, using the damage model for rock based on Lemaitre hypothesis about strain equivalence, a new technique for measuring strength of rock micro-cells by adopting the Mohr-Coulomb criterion was developed, and a statistical damage evolution equation was established based on the property that strength of micro-cells is consistent with normal distribution function, through discussing the characteristics of random distributions for strength of micro-cells, then a statistical damage constitutive model that can simulate the full process of rock strain softening under specific confining pressure was set up. Secondly, a new method to determine the model parameters which can be applied to the situations under different confining pressures was proposed, by deeply studying the relations between the model parameters and characteristic parameters of the full stress-strain curve under different confining pressures. Therefore, a unified statistical damage constitutive model for rock softening which can reflect the effect of different confining pressures was set up. This model makes the physical property of model parameters explicit, contains only conventional mechanical parameters, and leads its application more convenient. Finally, the rationality of this model and its parameters-determining method were identified via comparative analyses between theoretical and experimental curves.

  1. Sensitivity analysis of CLIMEX parameters in modelling potential distribution of Lantana camara L.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subhashni Taylor

    Full Text Available A process-based niche model of L. camara L. (lantana, a highly invasive shrub species, was developed to estimate its potential distribution using CLIMEX. Model development was carried out using its native and invasive distribution and validation was carried out with the extensive Australian distribution. A good fit was observed, with 86.7% of herbarium specimens collected in Australia occurring within the suitable and highly suitable categories. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify the model parameters that had the most influence on lantana distribution. The changes in suitability were assessed by mapping the regions where the distribution changed with each parameter alteration. This allowed an assessment of where, within Australia, the modification of each parameter was having the most impact, particularly in terms of the suitable and highly suitable locations. The sensitivity of various parameters was also evaluated by calculating the changes in area within the suitable and highly suitable categories. The limiting low temperature (DV0, limiting high temperature (DV3 and limiting low soil moisture (SM0 showed highest sensitivity to change. The other model parameters were relatively insensitive to change. Highly sensitive parameters require extensive research and data collection to be fitted accurately in species distribution models. The results from this study can inform more cost effective development of species distribution models for lantana. Such models form an integral part of the management of invasive species and the results can be used to streamline data collection requirements for potential distribution modelling.

  2. Combustion Model and Control Parameter Optimization Methods for Single Cylinder Diesel Engine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bambang Wahono

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This research presents a method to construct a combustion model and a method to optimize some control parameters of diesel engine in order to develop a model-based control system. The construction purpose of the model is to appropriately manage some control parameters to obtain the values of fuel consumption and emission as the engine output objectives. Stepwise method considering multicollinearity was applied to construct combustion model with the polynomial model. Using the experimental data of a single cylinder diesel engine, the model of power, BSFC, NOx, and soot on multiple injection diesel engines was built. The proposed method succesfully developed the model that describes control parameters in relation to the engine outputs. Although many control devices can be mounted to diesel engine, optimization technique is required to utilize this method in finding optimal engine operating conditions efficiently beside the existing development of individual emission control methods. Particle swarm optimization (PSO was used to calculate control parameters to optimize fuel consumption and emission based on the model. The proposed method is able to calculate control parameters efficiently to optimize evaluation item based on the model. Finally, the model which added PSO then was compiled in a microcontroller.

  3. Recursive modular modelling methodology for lumped-parameter dynamic systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orsino, Renato Maia Matarazzo

    2017-08-01

    This paper proposes a novel approach to the modelling of lumped-parameter dynamic systems, based on representing them by hierarchies of mathematical models of increasing complexity instead of a single (complex) model. Exploring the multilevel modularity that these systems typically exhibit, a general recursive modelling methodology is proposed, in order to conciliate the use of the already existing modelling techniques. The general algorithm is based on a fundamental theorem that states the conditions for computing projection operators recursively. Three procedures for these computations are discussed: orthonormalization, use of orthogonal complements and use of generalized inverses. The novel methodology is also applied for the development of a recursive algorithm based on the Udwadia-Kalaba equation, which proves to be identical to the one of a Kalman filter for estimating the state of a static process, given a sequence of noiseless measurements representing the constraints that must be satisfied by the system.

  4. [A study of coordinates transform iterative fitting method to extract bio-impedance model parameters bio-impedance model parameters].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Liming; Yang, Yuxing; Yuan, Shiying

    2006-02-01

    A new algorithm, the coordinates transform iterative optimizing method based on the least square curve fitting model, is presented. This arithmetic is used for extracting the bio-impedance model parameters. It is superior to other methods, for example, its speed of the convergence is quicker, and its calculating precision is higher. The objective to extract the model parameters, such as Ri, Re, Cm and alpha, has been realized rapidly and accurately. With the aim at lowering the power consumption, decreasing the price and improving the price-to-performance ratio, a practical bio-impedance measure system with double CPUs has been built. It can be drawn from the preliminary results that the intracellular resistance Ri increased largely with an increase in working load during sitting, which reflects the ischemic change of lower limbs.

  5. Parameter discovery in stochastic biological models using simulated annealing and statistical model checking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Faraz; Jha, Sumit K; Jha, Susmit; Langmead, Christopher J

    2014-01-01

    Stochastic models are increasingly used to study the behaviour of biochemical systems. While the structure of such models is often readily available from first principles, unknown quantitative features of the model are incorporated into the model as parameters. Algorithmic discovery of parameter values from experimentally observed facts remains a challenge for the computational systems biology community. We present a new parameter discovery algorithm that uses simulated annealing, sequential hypothesis testing, and statistical model checking to learn the parameters in a stochastic model. We apply our technique to a model of glucose and insulin metabolism used for in-silico validation of artificial pancreata and demonstrate its effectiveness by developing parallel CUDA-based implementation for parameter synthesis in this model.

  6. Propagation channel characterization, parameter estimation, and modeling for wireless communications

    CERN Document Server

    Yin, Xuefeng

    2016-01-01

    Thoroughly covering channel characteristics and parameters, this book provides the knowledge needed to design various wireless systems, such as cellular communication systems, RFID and ad hoc wireless communication systems. It gives a detailed introduction to aspects of channels before presenting the novel estimation and modelling techniques which can be used to achieve accurate models. To systematically guide readers through the topic, the book is organised in three distinct parts. The first part covers the fundamentals of the characterization of propagation channels, including the conventional single-input single-output (SISO) propagation channel characterization as well as its extension to multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) cases. Part two focuses on channel measurements and channel data post-processing. Wideband channel measurements are introduced, including the equipment, technology and advantages and disadvantages of different data acquisition schemes. The channel parameter estimation methods are ...

  7. Auxiliary Parameter MCMC for Exponential Random Graph Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byshkin, Maksym; Stivala, Alex; Mira, Antonietta; Krause, Rolf; Robins, Garry; Lomi, Alessandro

    2016-11-01

    Exponential random graph models (ERGMs) are a well-established family of statistical models for analyzing social networks. Computational complexity has so far limited the appeal of ERGMs for the analysis of large social networks. Efficient computational methods are highly desirable in order to extend the empirical scope of ERGMs. In this paper we report results of a research project on the development of snowball sampling methods for ERGMs. We propose an auxiliary parameter Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for sampling from the relevant probability distributions. The method is designed to decrease the number of allowed network states without worsening the mixing of the Markov chains, and suggests a new approach for the developments of MCMC samplers for ERGMs. We demonstrate the method on both simulated and actual (empirical) network data and show that it reduces CPU time for parameter estimation by an order of magnitude compared to current MCMC methods.

  8. Proliferation in Non-Hodgkin’S Lymphomas and Its Prognostic Value Related to Staging Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irene Lorand‐Metze

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available In malignant lymphomas, cell kinetics has shown to be related with histologic type as well as with the clinical behaviour. The aim of our study was to investigate the relevance of cell proliferation parameters on overall survival in non‐Hodgkin's lymphomas as well as their relationship with prognostic factors such as International Prognostic Index (IPI. We performed DNA‐flow‐cytometry (S‐phase fraction and detection of DNA‐aneuploidy as well as cytologic examination and the AgNOR technique in material obtained by fine needle aspiration of lymph nodes at diagnosis. The majority of the patients were stage IV by Ann Arbor and intermediate risk by IPI (42/55. When analyzing all patients together, histologic type by the WHO classification, IPI and the presence of a DNA‐aneuploid clone could not separate well patients with a different survival. For all patients, univariate Cox analysis revealed S‐phase (SPF and AgNOR parameters to be of prognostic value. In the multivariate analysis, however, only SPF remained in the final model. Yet, when stratifying for DNA‐ploidy, only the total number of AgNORs/nucleus was an independent parameter. Looking only at the DNA‐diploid cases, the AgNOR pattern remained the most important parameter, whereas for the DNA‐aneuploid cases this was true for SPF. When studying patients with B large cell lymphoma separately, only DNA‐ploidy was a prognostic factor. In summary, cell kinetic parameters reveal important prognostic information in NHL patients. Furthermore, DNA‐aneuploidy seems to interfere with the analysis of the AgNOR pattern.

  9. Determining avalanche modelling input parameters using terrestrial laser scanning technology

    OpenAIRE

    2013-01-01

    International audience; In dynamic avalanche modelling, data about the volumes and areas of the snow released, mobilized and deposited are key input parameters, as well as the fracture height. The fracture height can sometimes be measured in the field, but it is often difficult to access the starting zone due to difficult or dangerous terrain and avalanche hazards. More complex is determining the areas and volumes of snow involved in an avalanche. Such calculations require high-resolution spa...

  10. Numerical model for thermal parameters in optical materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, Yoichi; Taira, Takunori

    2016-04-01

    Thermal parameters of optical materials, such as thermal conductivity, thermal expansion, temperature coefficient of refractive index play a decisive role for the thermal design inside laser cavities. Therefore, numerical value of them with temperature dependence is quite important in order to develop the high intense laser oscillator in which optical materials generate excessive heat across mode volumes both of lasing output and optical pumping. We already proposed a novel model of thermal conductivity in various optical materials. Thermal conductivity is a product of isovolumic specific heat and thermal diffusivity, and independent modeling of these two figures should be required from the viewpoint of a clarification of physical meaning. Our numerical model for thermal conductivity requires one material parameter for specific heat and two parameters for thermal diffusivity in the calculation of each optical material. In this work we report thermal conductivities of various optical materials as Y3Al5O12 (YAG), YVO4 (YVO), GdVO4 (GVO), stoichiometric and congruent LiTaO3, synthetic quartz, YAG ceramics and Y2O3 ceramics. The dependence on Nd3+-doping in laser gain media in YAG, YVO and GVO is also studied. This dependence can be described by only additional three parameters. Temperature dependence of thermal expansion and temperature coefficient of refractive index for YAG, YVO, and GVO: these are also included in this work for convenience. We think our numerical model is quite useful for not only thermal analysis in laser cavities or optical waveguides but also the evaluation of physical properties in various transparent materials.

  11. Land Building Models: Uncertainty in and Sensitivity to Input Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    Louisiana Coastal Area Ecosystem Restoration Projects Study , Vol. 3, Final integrated ERDC/CHL CHETN-VI-44 August 2013 24 feasibility study and... Nourishment Module, Chapter 8. In Coastal Louisiana Ecosystem Assessment and Restoration (CLEAR) Model of Louisiana Coastal Area (LCA) Comprehensive...to Input Parameters by Ty V. Wamsley PURPOSE: The purpose of this Coastal and Hydraulics Engineering Technical Note (CHETN) is to document a

  12. The oblique S parameter in higgsless electroweak models

    CERN Document Server

    Rosell, Ignasi

    2012-01-01

    We present a one-loop calculation of the oblique S parameter within Higgsless models of electroweak symmetry breaking. We have used a general effective Lagrangian with at most two derivatives, implementing the chiral symmetry breaking SU(2)_L x SU(2)_R -> SU(2)_{L+R} with Goldstones, gauge bosons and one multiplet of vector and axial-vector resonances. The estimation is based on the short-distance constraints and the dispersive approach proposed by Peskin and Takeuchi.

  13. A statistical model of proton with no parameter

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Y; Zhang, Yongjun; Yang, Li-Ming

    2001-01-01

    In this text, the protons are taken as an ensemble of Fock states. Using detailed balancing principle and equal probability principle, the unpolarized parton distribution of proton is gained through Monte Carlo without any parameter. A new origin of the light flavor sea-quark asymmetry is given here beside known models as Pauli blocking, meson-cloud, chiral-field, chiral-soliton and instantons.

  14. Model of the Stochastic Vacuum and QCD Parameters

    CERN Document Server

    Ferreira, E; Ferreira, Erasmo; Pereira, Flávio

    1997-01-01

    Accounting for the two independent correlation functions of the QCD vacuum, we improve the simple and consistent description given by the model of the stochastic vacuum to the high-energy pp and pbar-p data, with a new determination of parameters of non-perturbative QCD. The increase of the hadronic radii with the energy accounts for the energy dependence of the observables.

  15. Re-estimating temperature-dependent consumption parameters in bioenergetics models for juvenile Chinook salmon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plumb, John M.; Moffitt, Christine M.

    2015-01-01

    Researchers have cautioned against the borrowing of consumption and growth parameters from other species and life stages in bioenergetics growth models. In particular, the function that dictates temperature dependence in maximum consumption (Cmax) within the Wisconsin bioenergetics model for Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha produces estimates that are lower than those measured in published laboratory feeding trials. We used published and unpublished data from laboratory feeding trials with subyearling Chinook Salmon from three stocks (Snake, Nechako, and Big Qualicum rivers) to estimate and adjust the model parameters for temperature dependence in Cmax. The data included growth measures in fish ranging from 1.5 to 7.2 g that were held at temperatures from 14°C to 26°C. Parameters for temperature dependence in Cmax were estimated based on relative differences in food consumption, and bootstrapping techniques were then used to estimate the error about the parameters. We found that at temperatures between 17°C and 25°C, the current parameter values did not match the observed data, indicating that Cmax should be shifted by about 4°C relative to the current implementation under the bioenergetics model. We conclude that the adjusted parameters for Cmax should produce more accurate predictions from the bioenergetics model for subyearling Chinook Salmon.

  16. Is flow velocity a significant parameter in flood damage modelling?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Kreibich

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Flow velocity is generally presumed to influence flood damage. However, this influence is hardly quantified and virtually no damage models take it into account. Therefore, the influences of flow velocity, water depth and combinations of these two impact parameters on various types of flood damage were investigated in five communities affected by the Elbe catchment flood in Germany in 2002. 2-D hydraulic models with high to medium spatial resolutions were used to calculate the impact parameters at the sites in which damage occurred. A significant influence of flow velocity on structural damage, particularly on roads, could be shown in contrast to a minor influence on monetary losses and business interruption. Forecasts of structural damage to road infrastructure should be based on flow velocity alone. The energy head is suggested as a suitable flood impact parameter for reliable forecasting of structural damage to residential buildings above a critical impact level of 2 m of energy head or water depth. However, general consideration of flow velocity in flood damage modelling, particularly for estimating monetary loss, cannot be recommended.

  17. A robust approach for the determination of Gurson model parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Sepe

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Among the most promising models introduced in recent years, with which it is possible to obtain very useful results for a better understanding of the physical phenomena involved in the macroscopic mechanism of crack propagation, the one proposed by Gurson and Tvergaard links the propagation of a crack to the nucleation, growth and coalescence of micro-voids, which is likely to connect the micromechanical characteristics of the component under examination to crack initiation and propagation up to a macroscopic scale. It must be pointed out that, even if the statistical character of some of the many physical parameters involved in the said model has been put in evidence, no serious attempt has been made insofar to link the corresponding statistic to the experimental and macroscopic results, as for example crack initiation time, material toughness, residual strength of the cracked component (R-Curve, and so on. In this work, such an analysis was carried out in a twofold way: the former concerned the study of the influence exerted by each of the physical parameters on the material toughness, and the latter concerned the use of the Stochastic Design Improvement (SDI technique to perform a “robust” numerical calibration of the model evaluating the nominal values of the physical and correction parameters, which fit a particular experimental result even in the presence of their “natural” variability.

  18. Alteration of Lysophosphatidylcholine-Related Metabolic Parameters in the Plasma of Mice with Experimental Sepsis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, Won-Gyun; Jung, Jun-Sub; Kwon, Hyeok Yil; Song, Dong-Keun

    2017-04-01

    Plasma concentration of lysophosphatidylcholine (LPC) was reported to decrease in patients with sepsis. However, the mechanisms of sepsis-induced decrease in plasma LPC levels are not currently well known. In mice subjected to cecal ligation and puncture (CLP), a model of polymicrobial peritoneal sepsis, we examined alterations in LPC-related metabolic parameters in plasma, i.e., the plasma concentration of LPC-related substances (i.e., phosphatidylcholine (PC) and lysophosphatidic acid (LPA)), and activities or levels in the plasma of some enzymes that can be involved in the regulation of plasma LPC concentration (i.e., secretory phospholipase A2 (sPLA2), lecithin:cholesterol acyltransferase (LCAT), acyl-CoA:lysophosphatidylcholine acyltransferase (LPCAT), and autotaxin (ATX)), as well as plasma albumin concentration. We found that levels of LPC and albumin and enzyme activities of LCAT, ATX, and sPLA2 were decreased, whereas levels of PC, LPA, and LPCAT1-3 were increased in the plasma of mice subjected to CLP. Bacterial peritonitis led to alterations in all the measured LPC-related metabolic parameters in the plasma, which could potentially contribute to sepsis-induced decrease in plasma LPC levels. These findings could lead to the novel biomarkers of sepsis.

  19. The Impact of Three Factors on the Recovery of Item Parameters for the Three-Parameter Logistic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kyung Yong; Lee, Won-Chan

    2017-01-01

    This article provides a detailed description of three factors (specification of the ability distribution, numerical integration, and frame of reference for the item parameter estimates) that might affect the item parameter estimation of the three-parameter logistic model, and compares five item calibration methods, which are combinations of the…

  20. Nonlocal order parameters for the 1D Hubbard model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montorsi, Arianna; Roncaglia, Marco

    2012-12-07

    We characterize the Mott-insulator and Luther-Emery phases of the 1D Hubbard model through correlators that measure the parity of spin and charge strings along the chain. These nonlocal quantities order in the corresponding gapped phases and vanish at the critical point U(c)=0, thus configuring as hidden order parameters. The Mott insulator consists of bound doublon-holon pairs, which in the Luther-Emery phase turn into electron pairs with opposite spins, both unbinding at U(c). The behavior of the parity correlators is captured by an effective free spinless fermion model.

  1. Surrogate based approaches to parameter inference in ocean models

    KAUST Repository

    Knio, Omar

    2016-01-06

    This talk discusses the inference of physical parameters using model surrogates. Attention is focused on the use of sampling schemes to build suitable representations of the dependence of the model response on uncertain input data. Non-intrusive spectral projections and regularized regressions are used for this purpose. A Bayesian inference formalism is then applied to update the uncertain inputs based on available measurements or observations. To perform the update, we consider two alternative approaches, based on the application of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods or of adjoint-based optimization techniques. We outline the implementation of these techniques to infer dependence of wind drag, bottom drag, and internal mixing coefficients.

  2. Calibration of back-analysed model parameters for landslides using classification statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cepeda, Jose; Henderson, Laura

    2016-04-01

    Back-analyses are useful for characterizing the geomorphological and mechanical processes and parameters involved in the initiation and propagation of landslides. These processes and parameters can in turn be used for improving forecasts of scenarios and hazard assessments in areas or sites which have similar settings to the back-analysed cases. The selection of the modeled landslide that produces the best agreement with the actual observations requires running a number of simulations by varying the type of model and the sets of input parameters. The comparison of the simulated and observed parameters is normally performed by visual comparison of geomorphological or dynamic variables (e.g., geometry of scarp and final deposit, maximum velocities and depths). Over the past six years, a method developed by NGI has been used by some researchers for a more objective selection of back-analysed input model parameters. That method includes an adaptation of the equations for calculation of classifiers, and a comparative evaluation of classifiers of the selected parameter sets in the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) space. This contribution presents an updating of the methodology. The proposed procedure allows comparisons between two or more "clouds" of classifiers. Each cloud represents the performance of a model over a range of input parameters (e.g., samples of probability distributions). Considering the fact that each cloud does not necessarily produce a full ROC curve, two new normalised ROC-space parameters are introduced for characterizing the performance of each cloud. The first parameter is representative of the cloud position relative to the point of perfect classification. The second parameter characterizes the position of the cloud relative to the theoretically perfect ROC curve and the no-discrimination line. The methodology is illustrated with back-analyses of slope stability and landslide runout of selected case studies. This research activity has been

  3. The Relation Between Ground Acceleration and Earthquake Source Parameters: Theory and Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lior, Itzhak; Ziv, Alon

    2017-04-01

    A simple relation between the root-mean-square of the ground acceleration and earthquake spectral (or source) parameters is introduced: 2 ----f20---- Arms = (2π )Ω0 √--( πκf0-)2, πκT 1 + 1.50.25 where Ω0 is the low frequency displacement spectral plateau, f0 is the corner frequency, κ is an attenuation parameter, and T is the data interval. This result uses the omega-squared model for far-field radiation, and accounts for site-specific attenuation. The main advantage of the new relation with respect to that of Hanks' (Hanks, 1979) is that it relaxes the simplifying assumption that the spectral corner frequency is much smaller than the maximum corner frequency resulting from attenuation, and that the spectrum may be approximated as being perfectly flat between the two frequencies. The newly proposed relation is tested using a composite dataset of earthquake records from Japan, California, Mexico and Taiwan. Excellent agreement is found between observed and predicted ground acceleration for any combination of corner frequencies. Thus, use of the above relation enables the extrapolation of ground motion prediction equation inferred from the frequent small magnitude earthquakes to the rare large magnitudes. This capacity is extremely useful near slow-slip plate boundaries, where the seismic moment release rates are low. Reference Hanks, T. C. (1979). b values and ω-γ seismic source models: implications for tectonic stress variations along active crustal fault zones and the estimation of high-frequency strong ground motion, J. Geophys. Res. 84, 2235-2241.

  4. Comparison of parameter estimation algorithms in hydrological modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blasone, Roberta-Serena; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2006-01-01

    Local search methods have been applied successfully in calibration of simple groundwater models, but might fail in locating the optimum for models of increased complexity, due to the more complex shape of the response surface. Global search algorithms have been demonstrated to perform well...... for these types of models, although at a more expensive computational cost. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the performance of a global and a local parameter optimization algorithm, respectively, the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) algorithm and the gradient-based Gauss......-Marquardt-Levenberg algorithm (implemented in the PEST software), when applied to a steady-state and a transient groundwater model. The results show that PEST can have severe problems in locating the global optimum and in being trapped in local regions of attractions. The global SCE procedure is, in general, more effective...

  5. Finding the effective parameter perturbations in atmospheric models: the LORENZ63 model as case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moolenaar, H.E.; Selten, F.M.

    2004-01-01

    Climate models contain numerous parameters for which the numeric values are uncertain. In the context of climate simulation and prediction, a relevant question is what range of climate outcomes is possible given the range of parameter uncertainties. Which parameter perturbation changes the climate i

  6. Relative sensitivity of developmental and immune parameters in juvenile versus adult male rats after exposure to di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonk, Elisa C.M., E-mail: ilse.tonk@rivm.nl [Department of Toxicogenomics, Maastricht University, Maastricht (Netherlands); Laboratory for Health Protection Research, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven (Netherlands); Verhoef, Aart; Gremmer, Eric R. [Laboratory for Health Protection Research, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven (Netherlands); Loveren, Henk van [Department of Toxicogenomics, Maastricht University, Maastricht (Netherlands); Laboratory for Health Protection Research, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven (Netherlands); Piersma, Aldert H. [Laboratory for Health Protection Research, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven (Netherlands); Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, Veterinary Faculty, Utrecht University, Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2012-04-01

    The developing immune system displays a relatively high sensitivity as compared to both general toxicity parameters and to the adult immune system. In this study we have performed such comparisons using di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) as a model compound. DEHP is the most abundant phthalate in the environment and perinatal exposure to DEHP has been shown to disrupt male sexual differentiation. In addition, phthalate exposure has been associated with immune dysfunction as evidenced by effects on the expression of allergy. Male wistar rats were dosed with corn oil or DEHP by gavage from postnatal day (PND) 10–50 or PND 50–90 at doses between 1 and 1000 mg/kg/day. Androgen-dependent organ weights showed effects at lower dose levels in juvenile versus adult animals. Immune parameters affected included TDAR parameters in both age groups, NK activity in juvenile animals and TNF-α production by adherent splenocytes in adult animals. Immune parameters were affected at lower dose levels compared to developmental parameters. Overall, more immune parameters were affected in juvenile animals compared to adult animals and effects were observed at lower dose levels. The results of this study show a relatively higher sensitivity of juvenile versus adult rats. Furthermore, they illustrate the relative sensitivity of the developing immune system in juvenile animals as compared to general toxicity and developmental parameters. This study therefore provides further argumentation for performing dedicated developmental immune toxicity testing as a default in regulatory toxicology. -- Highlights: ► In this study we evaluate the relative sensitivities for DEHP induced effects. ► Results of this study demonstrate the age-dependency of DEHP toxicity. ► Functional immune parameters were more sensitive than structural immune parameters. ► Immune parameters were affected at lower dose levels than developmental parameters. ► Findings demonstrate the susceptibility of the

  7. Application of Powell's optimization method to surge arrester circuit models' parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christodoulou, C.A.; Stathopulos, I.A. [National Technical University of Athens, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, 9 Iroon Politechniou St., Zografou Campus, 157 80 Athens (Greece); Vita, V.; Ekonomou, L.; Chatzarakis, G.E. [A.S.PE.T.E. - School of Pedagogical and Technological Education, Department of Electrical Engineering Educators, N. Heraklion, 141 21 Athens (Greece)

    2010-08-15

    Powell's optimization method has been used for the evaluation of the surge arrester models parameters. The proper modelling of metal-oxide surge arresters and the right selection of equivalent circuit parameters are very significant issues, since quality and reliability of lightning performance studies can be improved with the more efficient representation of the arresters' dynamic behavior. The proposed approach selects optimum arrester model equivalent circuit parameter values, minimizing the error between the simulated peak residual voltage value and this given by the manufacturer. Application of the method in performed on a 120 kV metal oxide arrester. The use of the obtained optimum parameter values reduces significantly the relative error between the simulated and manufacturer's peak residual voltage value, presenting the effectiveness of the method. (author)

  8. Bianchi type-V dark energy model with varying EoS parameter

    CERN Document Server

    Saha, Bijan

    2012-01-01

    Within the scope of an anisotropic Bianchi type-V cosmological model we have studied the evolution of the universe. The assumption of a diagonal energy-momentum tensor leads to some severe restriction on the metric functions, which on its part imposes restriction on the components of the energy momentum tensor. This model allows anisotropic matter distribution. Further using the proportionality condition that relates the shear scalar $(\\sigma)$ in the model is proportional to expansion scalar $(\\vartheta)$ and the variation law of Hubble parameter, connecting Hubble parameter with volume scale. Exact solution to the corresponding equations are obtained. The EoS parameter for dark energy as well as deceleration parameter is found to be the time varying functions. A qualitative picture of the evolution of the universe corresponding to different of its stages is given using the latest observational data.

  9. Prediction Model of Battery State of Charge and Control Parameter Optimization for Electric Vehicle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bambang Wahono

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the construction of a battery state of charge (SOC prediction model and the optimization method of the said model to appropriately control the number of parameters in compliance with the SOC as the battery output objectives. Research Centre for Electrical Power and Mechatronics, Indonesian Institute of Sciences has tested its electric vehicle research prototype on the road, monitoring its voltage, current, temperature, time, vehicle velocity, motor speed, and SOC during the operation. Using this experimental data, the prediction model of battery SOC was built. Stepwise method considering multicollinearity was able to efficiently develops the battery prediction model that describes the multiple control parameters in relation to the characteristic values such as SOC. It was demonstrated that particle swarm optimization (PSO succesfully and efficiently calculated optimal control parameters to optimize evaluation item such as SOC based on the model.

  10. Parameter and uncertainty estimation for mechanistic, spatially explicit epidemiological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finger, Flavio; Schaefli, Bettina; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2014-05-01

    Epidemiological models can be a crucially important tool for decision-making during disease outbreaks. The range of possible applications spans from real-time forecasting and allocation of health-care resources to testing alternative intervention mechanisms such as vaccines, antibiotics or the improvement of sanitary conditions. Our spatially explicit, mechanistic models for cholera epidemics have been successfully applied to several epidemics including, the one that struck Haiti in late 2010 and is still ongoing. Calibration and parameter estimation of such models represents a major challenge because of properties unusual in traditional geoscientific domains such as hydrology. Firstly, the epidemiological data available might be subject to high uncertainties due to error-prone diagnosis as well as manual (and possibly incomplete) data collection. Secondly, long-term time-series of epidemiological data are often unavailable. Finally, the spatially explicit character of the models requires the comparison of several time-series of model outputs with their real-world counterparts, which calls for an appropriate weighting scheme. It follows that the usual assumption of a homoscedastic Gaussian error distribution, used in combination with classical calibration techniques based on Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, is likely to be violated, whereas the construction of an appropriate formal likelihood function seems close to impossible. Alternative calibration methods, which allow for accurate estimation of total model uncertainty, particularly regarding the envisaged use of the models for decision-making, are thus needed. Here we present the most recent developments regarding methods for parameter and uncertainty estimation to be used with our mechanistic, spatially explicit models for cholera epidemics, based on informal measures of goodness of fit.

  11. Order-parameter model for unstable multilane traffic flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lubashevsky; Mahnke

    2000-11-01

    We discuss a phenomenological approach to the description of unstable vehicle motion on multilane highways that explains in a simple way the observed sequence of the "free flow synchronized mode jam" phase transitions as well as the hysteresis in these transitions. We introduce a variable called an order parameter that accounts for possible correlations in the vehicle motion at different lanes. So, it is principally due to the "many-body" effects in the car interaction in contrast to such variables as the mean car density and velocity being actually the zeroth and first moments of the "one-particle" distribution function. Therefore, we regard the order parameter as an additional independent state variable of traffic flow. We assume that these correlations are due to a small group of "fast" drivers and by taking into account the general properties of the driver behavior we formulate a governing equation for the order parameter. In this context we analyze the instability of homogeneous traffic flow that manifested itself in the above-mentioned phase transitions and gave rise to the hysteresis in both of them. Besides, the jam is characterized by the vehicle flows at different lanes which are independent of one another. We specify a certain simplified model in order to study the general features of the car cluster self-formation under the "free flow synchronized motion" phase transition. In particular, we show that the main local parameters of the developed cluster are determined by the state characteristics of vehicle motion only.

  12. Accelerated gravitational wave parameter estimation with reduced order modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canizares, Priscilla; Field, Scott E; Gair, Jonathan; Raymond, Vivien; Smith, Rory; Tiglio, Manuel

    2015-02-20

    Inferring the astrophysical parameters of coalescing compact binaries is a key science goal of the upcoming advanced LIGO-Virgo gravitational-wave detector network and, more generally, gravitational-wave astronomy. However, current approaches to parameter estimation for these detectors require computationally expensive algorithms. Therefore, there is a pressing need for new, fast, and accurate Bayesian inference techniques. In this Letter, we demonstrate that a reduced order modeling approach enables rapid parameter estimation to be performed. By implementing a reduced order quadrature scheme within the LIGO Algorithm Library, we show that Bayesian inference on the 9-dimensional parameter space of nonspinning binary neutron star inspirals can be sped up by a factor of ∼30 for the early advanced detectors' configurations (with sensitivities down to around 40 Hz) and ∼70 for sensitivities down to around 20 Hz. This speedup will increase to about 150 as the detectors improve their low-frequency limit to 10 Hz, reducing to hours analyses which could otherwise take months to complete. Although these results focus on interferometric gravitational wave detectors, the techniques are broadly applicable to any experiment where fast Bayesian analysis is desirable.

  13. Complementarity of flux- and biometric-based data to constrain parameters in a terrestrial carbon model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenggang Du

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available To improve models for accurate projections, data assimilation, an emerging statistical approach to combine models with data, have recently been developed to probe initial conditions, parameters, data content, response functions and model uncertainties. Quantifying how many information contents are contained in different data streams is essential to predict future states of ecosystems and the climate. This study uses a data assimilation approach to examine the information contents contained in flux- and biometric-based data to constrain parameters in a terrestrial carbon (C model, which includes canopy photosynthesis and vegetation–soil C transfer submodels. Three assimilation experiments were constructed with either net ecosystem exchange (NEE data only or biometric data only [including foliage and woody biomass, litterfall, soil organic C (SOC and soil respiration], or both NEE and biometric data to constrain model parameters by a probabilistic inversion application. The results showed that NEE data mainly constrained parameters associated with gross primary production (GPP and ecosystem respiration (RE but were almost invalid for C transfer coefficients, while biometric data were more effective in constraining C transfer coefficients than other parameters. NEE and biometric data constrained about 26% (6 and 30% (7 of a total of 23 parameters, respectively, but their combined application constrained about 61% (14 of all parameters. The complementarity of NEE and biometric data was obvious in constraining most of parameters. The poor constraint by only NEE or biometric data was probably attributable to either the lack of long-term C dynamic data or errors from measurements. Overall, our results suggest that flux- and biometric-based data, containing different processes in ecosystem C dynamics, have different capacities to constrain parameters related to photosynthesis and C transfer coefficients, respectively. Multiple data sources could also

  14. Optimal vibration control of curved beams using distributed parameter models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Fushou; Jin, Dongping; Wen, Hao

    2016-12-01

    The design of linear quadratic optimal controller using spectral factorization method is studied for vibration suppression of curved beam structures modeled as distributed parameter models. The equations of motion for active control of the in-plane vibration of a curved beam are developed firstly considering its shear deformation and rotary inertia, and then the state space model of the curved beam is established directly using the partial differential equations of motion. The functional gains for the distributed parameter model of curved beam are calculated by extending the spectral factorization method. Moreover, the response of the closed-loop control system is derived explicitly in frequency domain. Finally, the suppression of the vibration at the free end of a cantilevered curved beam by point control moment is studied through numerical case studies, in which the benefit of the presented method is shown by comparison with a constant gain velocity feedback control law, and the performance of the presented method on avoidance of control spillover is demonstrated.

  15. Parameter estimation for models of ligninolytic and cellulolytic enzyme kinetics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Gangsheng [ORNL; Post, Wilfred M [ORNL; Mayes, Melanie [ORNL; Frerichs, Joshua T [ORNL; Jagadamma, Sindhu [ORNL

    2012-01-01

    While soil enzymes have been explicitly included in the soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition models, there is a serious lack of suitable data for model parameterization. This study provides well-documented enzymatic parameters for application in enzyme-driven SOC decomposition models from a compilation and analysis of published measurements. In particular, we developed appropriate kinetic parameters for five typical ligninolytic and cellulolytic enzymes ( -glucosidase, cellobiohydrolase, endo-glucanase, peroxidase, and phenol oxidase). The kinetic parameters included the maximum specific enzyme activity (Vmax) and half-saturation constant (Km) in the Michaelis-Menten equation. The activation energy (Ea) and the pH optimum and sensitivity (pHopt and pHsen) were also analyzed. pHsen was estimated by fitting an exponential-quadratic function. The Vmax values, often presented in different units under various measurement conditions, were converted into the same units at a reference temperature (20 C) and pHopt. Major conclusions are: (i) Both Vmax and Km were log-normal distributed, with no significant difference in Vmax exhibited between enzymes originating from bacteria or fungi. (ii) No significant difference in Vmax was found between cellulases and ligninases; however, there was significant difference in Km between them. (iii) Ligninases had higher Ea values and lower pHopt than cellulases; average ratio of pHsen to pHopt ranged 0.3 0.4 for the five enzymes, which means that an increase or decrease of 1.1 1.7 pH units from pHopt would reduce Vmax by 50%. (iv) Our analysis indicated that the Vmax values from lab measurements with purified enzymes were 1 2 orders of magnitude higher than those for use in SOC decomposition models under field conditions.

  16. Modeling of state parameter and hardening function for granular materials

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    彭芳乐; 李建中

    2004-01-01

    A modified plastic strain energy as hardening state parameter for dense sand was proposed, based on the results from a series of drained plane strain tests on saturated dense Japanese Toyoura sand with precise stress and strain measurements along many stress paths. In addition, a unique hardening function between the plastic strain energy and the instantaneous stress path was also presented, which was independent of stress history. The proposed state parameter and hardening function was directly verified by the simple numerical integration method. It is shown that the proposed hardening function is independent of stress history and stress path and is appropriate to be used as the hardening rule in constitutive modeling for dense sand, and it is also capable of simulating the effects on the deformation characteristics of stress history and stress path for dense sand.

  17. Parameter Estimation of the Extended Vasiček Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanae RUJIVAN

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, an estimate of the drift and diffusion parameters of the extended Vasiček model is presented. The estimate is based on the method of maximum likelihood. We derive a closed-form expansion for the transition (probability density of the extended Vasiček process and use the expansion to construct an approximate log-likelihood function of a discretely sampled data of the process. Approximate maximum likelihood estimators (AMLEs of the parameters are obtained by maximizing the approximate log-likelihood function. The convergence of the AMLEs to the true maximum likelihood estimators is obtained by increasing the number of terms in the expansions with a small time step size.

  18. Parameter Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2011-01-01

    of optimisation techniques coupled with dynamic solution of the underlying model. Linear and nonlinear approaches to parameter estimation are investigated. There is also the application of maximum likelihood principles in the estimation of parameters, as well as the use of orthogonal collocation to generate a set......In this chapter the importance of parameter estimation in model development is illustrated through various applications related to reaction systems. In particular, rate constants in a reaction system are obtained through parameter estimation methods. These approaches often require the application...... of algebraic equations as the basis for parameter estimation.These approaches are illustrated using estimations of kinetic constants from reaction system models....

  19. Computational fluid dynamics model of WTP clearwell: Evaluation of critical parameters influencing model performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ducoste, J.; Brauer, R.

    1999-07-01

    Analysis of a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model for a water treatment plant clearwell was done. Model parameters were analyzed to determine their influence on the effluent-residence time distribution (RTD) function. The study revealed that several model parameters could have significant impact on the shape of the RTD function and consequently raise the level of uncertainty on accurate predictions of clearwell hydraulics. The study also revealed that although the modeler could select a distribution of values for some of the model parameters, most of these values can be ruled out by requiring the difference between the calculated and theoretical hydraulic retention time to within 5% of the theoretical value.

  20. School based oral health promotional intervention: Effect on knowledge, practices and clinical oral health related parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arjun Gauba

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: No organized school oral health program is existent in India. Aim: The aim of this study is to test the feasibility and efficacy of an economical school oral health promotional intervention with educational and preventive components. Settings and Design: School oral health promotional intervention carried out in one of the randomly selected school and evaluated through short duration prospective model. Materials and Methods: A total of 100 children with an age range of 10-12 years with no previous history of dental intervention were enrolled. Interventions comprised of oral health education (delivered through lecture and demonstrations by an undergraduate dental student and topical antibacterial therapy (fluoride varnish and povidone iodine. Outcomes consisted of Knowledge and practices (KAP regarding oral health, clinical oral health related parameters such as plaque index (PI, gingival index (GI and caries activity as per Modified Snyder′s test. These were reported at baseline, 3 weeks and 6 months follow-up examination by a calibrated examiner. Statistical Analysis: McNemar Bowker′s test, Student′s t-test, Pearson Chi-square tests were used. Results: Highly significant (P < 0.001 improvements in KAP scores, PI scores, GI scores and caries activity were reported at 3 weeks and 6 months follow-up examination. Conclusion: This small economical school oral health program positively influenced oral health related practices and parameters of oral health such as oral cleanliness, gingival health and caries activity.

  1. Multi-parameter models of innovation diffusion on complex networks

    CERN Document Server

    McCullen, Nicholas J; Bale, Catherine S E; Foxon, Tim J; Gale, William F

    2012-01-01

    A model, applicable to a range of innovation diffusion applications with a strong peer to peer component, is developed and studied, along with methods for its investigation and analysis. A particular application is to individual households deciding whether to install an energy efficiency measure in their home. The model represents these individuals as nodes on a network, each with a variable representing their current state of adoption of the innovation. The motivation to adopt is composed of three terms, representing personal preference, an average of each individual's network neighbours' states and a system average, which is a measure of the current social trend. The adoption state of a node changes if a weighted linear combination of these factors exceeds some threshold. Numerical simulations have been carried out, computing the average uptake after a sufficient number of time-steps over many realisations at a range of model parameter values, on various network topologies, including random (Erdos-Renyi), s...

  2. Reconstructing parameters of spreading models from partial observations

    CERN Document Server

    Lokhov, Andrey Y

    2016-01-01

    Spreading processes are often modelled as a stochastic dynamics occurring on top of a given network with edge weights corresponding to the transmission probabilities. Knowledge of veracious transmission probabilities is essential for prediction, optimization, and control of diffusion dynamics. Unfortunately, in most cases the transmission rates are unknown and need to be reconstructed from the spreading data. Moreover, in realistic settings it is impossible to monitor the state of each node at every time, and thus the data is highly incomplete. We introduce an efficient dynamic message-passing algorithm, which is able to reconstruct parameters of the spreading model given only partial information on the activation times of nodes in the network. The method is generalizable to a large class of dynamic models, as well to the case of temporal graphs.

  3. Dynamic systems models new methods of parameter and state estimation

    CERN Document Server

    2016-01-01

    This monograph is an exposition of a novel method for solving inverse problems, a method of parameter estimation for time series data collected from simulations of real experiments. These time series might be generated by measuring the dynamics of aircraft in flight, by the function of a hidden Markov model used in bioinformatics or speech recognition or when analyzing the dynamics of asset pricing provided by the nonlinear models of financial mathematics. Dynamic Systems Models demonstrates the use of algorithms based on polynomial approximation which have weaker requirements than already-popular iterative methods. Specifically, they do not require a first approximation of a root vector and they allow non-differentiable elements in the vector functions being approximated. The text covers all the points necessary for the understanding and use of polynomial approximation from the mathematical fundamentals, through algorithm development to the application of the method in, for instance, aeroplane flight dynamic...

  4. Connecting Global to Local Parameters in Barred Galaxy Models

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    N. D. Caranicolas

    2002-09-01

    We present connections between global and local parameters in a realistic dynamical model, describing motion in a barred galaxy. Expanding the global model in the vicinity of a stable Lagrange point, we find the potential of a two-dimensional perturbed harmonic oscillator, which describes local motion near the centre of the global model. The frequencies of oscillations and the coefficients of the perturbing terms are not arbitrary but are connected to the mass, the angular rotation velocity, the scale length and the strength of the galactic bar. The local energy is also connected to the global energy. A comparison of the properties of orbits in the global and local potential is also made.

  5. Water quality modelling for ephemeral rivers: Model development and parameter assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannina, Giorgio; Viviani, Gaspare

    2010-11-01

    SummaryRiver water quality models can be valuable tools for the assessment and management of receiving water body quality. However, such water quality models require accurate model calibration in order to specify model parameters. Reliable model calibration requires an extensive array of water quality data that are generally rare and resource-intensive, both economically and in terms of human resources, to collect. In the case of small rivers, such data are scarce due to the fact that these rivers are generally considered too insignificant, from a practical and economic viewpoint, to justify the investment of such considerable time and resources. As a consequence, the literature contains very few studies on the water quality modelling for small rivers, and such studies as have been published are fairly limited in scope. In this paper, a simplified river water quality model is presented. The model is an extension of the Streeter-Phelps model and takes into account the physico-chemical and biological processes most relevant to modelling the quality of receiving water bodies (i.e., degradation of dissolved carbonaceous substances, ammonium oxidation, algal uptake and denitrification, dissolved oxygen balance, including depletion by degradation processes and supply by physical reaeration and photosynthetic production). The model has been applied to an Italian case study, the Oreto river (IT), which has been the object of an Italian research project aimed at assessing the river's water quality. For this reason, several monitoring campaigns have been previously carried out in order to collect water quantity and quality data on this river system. In particular, twelve river cross sections were monitored, and both flow and water quality data were collected for each cross section. The results of the calibrated model show satisfactory agreement with the measured data and results reveal important differences between the parameters used to model small rivers as compared to

  6. Depleted cores, multi-component fits, and structural parameter relations for luminous early-type galaxies

    CERN Document Server

    Dullo, Bililign T

    2013-01-01

    New surface brightness profiles from 26 early-type galaxies with partially depleted cores have been extracted from the full radial extent of Hubble Space Telescope images, giving us a total sample of 31 such core-Sersic galaxies. We have carefully quantified the radial stellar distributions of the elliptical galaxies using the core-Sersic model whereas for the lenticular galaxies a core-Sersic bulge plus an exponential disc model gives the best representation. We additionally caution about the excessive use of multiple Sersic functions for decomposing galaxies. The structural parameters obtained from our fitted models are used to update several `central' as well as `global' galaxy scaling relations. We find near-linear relations between the break radius R_b and the spheroid luminosity L such that R_b ~ L^(1.13 +/- 0.13), and with the supermassive black hole mass M_BH such that R_b ~ M_BH^(0.83+/- 0.21). This is internally consistent with the notion that major, dry mergers add the stellar and black hole mass i...

  7. Simple parameter estimation for complex models — Testing evolutionary techniques on 3-dimensional biogeochemical ocean models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattern, Jann Paul; Edwards, Christopher A.

    2017-01-01

    Parameter estimation is an important part of numerical modeling and often required when a coupled physical-biogeochemical ocean model is first deployed. However, 3-dimensional ocean model simulations are computationally expensive and models typically contain upwards of 10 parameters suitable for estimation. Hence, manual parameter tuning can be lengthy and cumbersome. Here, we present four easy to implement and flexible parameter estimation techniques and apply them to two 3-dimensional biogeochemical models of different complexities. Based on a Monte Carlo experiment, we first develop a cost function measuring the model-observation misfit based on multiple data types. The parameter estimation techniques are then applied and yield a substantial cost reduction over ∼ 100 simulations. Based on the outcome of multiple replicate experiments, they perform on average better than random, uninformed parameter search but performance declines when more than 40 parameters are estimated together. Our results emphasize the complex cost function structure for biogeochemical parameters and highlight dependencies between different parameters as well as different cost function formulations.

  8. Optimization of Experimental Model Parameter Identification for Energy Storage Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosario Morello

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The smart grid approach is envisioned to take advantage of all available modern technologies in transforming the current power system to provide benefits to all stakeholders in the fields of efficient energy utilisation and of wide integration of renewable sources. Energy storage systems could help to solve some issues that stem from renewable energy usage in terms of stabilizing the intermittent energy production, power quality and power peak mitigation. With the integration of energy storage systems into the smart grids, their accurate modeling becomes a necessity, in order to gain robust real-time control on the network, in terms of stability and energy supply forecasting. In this framework, this paper proposes a procedure to identify the values of the battery model parameters in order to best fit experimental data and integrate it, along with models of energy sources and electrical loads, in a complete framework which represents a real time smart grid management system. The proposed method is based on a hybrid optimisation technique, which makes combined use of a stochastic and a deterministic algorithm, with low computational burden and can therefore be repeated over time in order to account for parameter variations due to the battery’s age and usage.

  9. Multiobjective Automatic Parameter Calibration of a Hydrological Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donghwi Jung

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This study proposes variable balancing approaches for the exploration (diversification and exploitation (intensification of the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II with simulated binary crossover (SBX and polynomial mutation (PM in the multiobjective automatic parameter calibration of a lumped hydrological model, the HYMOD model. Two objectives—minimizing the percent bias and minimizing three peak flow differences—are considered in the calibration of the six parameters of the model. The proposed balancing approaches, which migrate the focus between exploration and exploitation over generations by varying the crossover and mutation distribution indices of SBX and PM, respectively, are compared with traditional static balancing approaches (the two dices value is fixed during optimization in a benchmark hydrological calibration problem for the Leaf River (1950 km2 near Collins, Mississippi. Three performance metrics—solution quality, spacing, and convergence—are used to quantify and compare the quality of the Pareto solutions obtained by the two different balancing approaches. The variable balancing approaches that migrate the focus of exploration and exploitation differently for SBX and PM outperformed other methods.

  10. Constraints on the parameters of the Left Right Mirror Model

    CERN Document Server

    Cerón, V E; Díaz-Cruz, J L; Maya, M; Ceron, Victoria E.; Cotti, Umberto; Maya, Mario

    1998-01-01

    We study some phenomenological constraints on the parameters of a left right model with mirror fermions (LRMM) that solves the strong CP problem. In particular, we evaluate the contribution of mirror neutrinos to the invisible Z decay width (\\Gamma_Z^{inv}), and we find that the present experimental value on \\Gamma_Z^{inv}, can be used to place an upper bound on the Z-Z' mixing angle that is consistent with limits obtained previously from other low-energy observables. In this model the charged fermions that correspond to the standard model (SM) mix with its mirror counterparts. This mixing, simultaneously with the Z-Z' one, leads to modifications of the \\Gamma(Z --> f \\bar{f}) decay width. By comparing with LEP data, we obtain bounds on the standard-mirror lepton mixing angles. We also find that the bottom quark mixing parameters can be chosen to fit the experimental values of R_b, and the resulting values for the Z-Z' mixing angle do not agree with previous bounds. However, this disagreement disappears if on...

  11. Extraction of battery parameters of the equivalent circuit model using a multi-objective genetic algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brand, Jonathan; Zhang, Zheming; Agarwal, Ramesh K.

    2014-02-01

    A simple but reasonably accurate battery model is required for simulating the performance of electrical systems that employ a battery for example an electric vehicle, as well as for investigating their potential as an energy storage device. In this paper, a relatively simple equivalent circuit based model is employed for modeling the performance of a battery. A computer code utilizing a multi-objective genetic algorithm is developed for the purpose of extracting the battery performance parameters. The code is applied to several existing industrial batteries as well as to two recently proposed high performance batteries which are currently in early research and development stage. The results demonstrate that with the optimally extracted performance parameters, the equivalent circuit based battery model can accurately predict the performance of various batteries of different sizes, capacities, and materials. Several test cases demonstrate that the multi-objective genetic algorithm can serve as a robust and reliable tool for extracting the battery performance parameters.

  12. A Central Composite Face-Centered Design for Parameters Estimation of PEM Fuel Cell Electrochemical Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khaled MAMMAR

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a new approach based on Experimental of design methodology (DoE is used to estimate the optimal of unknown model parameters proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC. This proposed approach combines the central composite face-centered (CCF and numerical PEMFC electrochemical. Simulation results obtained using electrochemical model help to predict the cell voltage in terms of inlet partial pressures of hydrogen and oxygen, stack temperature, and operating current. The value of the previous model and (CCF design methodology is used for parametric analysis of electrochemical model. Thus it is possible to evaluate the relative importance of each parameter to the simulation accuracy. However this methodology is able to define the exact values of the parameters from the manufacture data. It was tested for the BCS 500-W stack PEM Generator, a stack rated at 500 W, manufactured by American Company BCS Technologies FC.

  13. Grain Nucleation Parameters for Aluminum Alloys: Experimental Determination and Model Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmadein, M.; Pustal, B.; Berger, R.; Subašić, E.; Bührig-Polaczek, A.

    2009-03-01

    A statistical grain nucleation model was implemented as a part of a multiphase flow and solidification simulation code for metallic alloys. Three characteristic parameters control the solution accuracy of the nucleation model: the total grain density, the mean undercooling, and the standard deviation of the undercooling. These parameters were obtained experimentally for grain-refined (GR) A356, GR AlCu4, and unrefined (UR) AlCu4 aluminum alloys. An apparatus was constructed and equipped with a cooling system to provide different cooling rates throughout the cast sample. The local grain density related to each cooling rate and undercooling was determined. The model parameters were obtained via statistical tools and were used to perform a simulation for the solidification of the cast sample. Calculated results were compared to experimental results, and the model exhibited good agreement with the experiments.

  14. Application of a free parameter model to plastic scintillation samples

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tarancon Sanz, Alex, E-mail: alex.tarancon@ub.edu [Departament de Quimica Analitica, Universitat de Barcelona, Diagonal 647, E-08028 Barcelona (Spain); Kossert, Karsten, E-mail: Karsten.Kossert@ptb.de [Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt (PTB), Bundesallee 100, 38116 Braunschweig (Germany)

    2011-08-21

    In liquid scintillation (LS) counting, the CIEMAT/NIST efficiency tracing method and the triple-to-double coincidence ratio (TDCR) method have proved their worth for reliable activity measurements of a number of radionuclides. In this paper, an extended approach to apply a free-parameter model to samples containing a mixture of solid plastic scintillation microspheres and radioactive aqueous solutions is presented. Several beta-emitting radionuclides were measured in a TDCR system at PTB. For the application of the free parameter model, the energy loss in the aqueous phase must be taken into account, since this portion of the particle energy does not contribute to the creation of scintillation light. The energy deposit in the aqueous phase is determined by means of Monte Carlo calculations applying the PENELOPE software package. To this end, great efforts were made to model the geometry of the samples. Finally, a new geometry parameter was defined, which was determined by means of a tracer radionuclide with known activity. This makes the analysis of experimental TDCR data of other radionuclides possible. The deviations between the determined activity concentrations and reference values were found to be lower than 3%. The outcome of this research work is also important for a better understanding of liquid scintillation counting. In particular the influence of (inverse) micelles, i.e. the aqueous spaces embedded in the organic scintillation cocktail, can be investigated. The new approach makes clear that it is important to take the energy loss in the aqueous phase into account. In particular for radionuclides emitting low-energy electrons (e.g. M-Auger electrons from {sup 125}I), this effect can be very important.

  15. Model parameters for representative wetland plant functional groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Amber S.; Kiniry, James R.; Mushet, David M.; Smith, Loren M.; McMurry, Scott T.; Attebury, Kelly; Lang, Megan; McCarty, Gregory W.; Shaffer, Jill A.; Effland, William R.; Johnson, Mari-Vaughn V.

    2017-01-01

    Wetlands provide a wide variety of ecosystem services including water quality remediation, biodiversity refugia, groundwater recharge, and floodwater storage. Realistic estimation of ecosystem service benefits associated with wetlands requires reasonable simulation of the hydrology of each site and realistic simulation of the upland and wetland plant growth cycles. Objectives of this study were to quantify leaf area index (LAI), light extinction coefficient (k), and plant nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K) concentrations in natural stands of representative plant species for some major plant functional groups in the United States. Functional groups in this study were based on these parameters and plant growth types to enable process-based modeling. We collected data at four locations representing some of the main wetland regions of the United States. At each site, we collected on-the-ground measurements of fraction of light intercepted, LAI, and dry matter within the 2013–2015 growing seasons. Maximum LAI and k variables showed noticeable variations among sites and years, while overall averages and functional group averages give useful estimates for multisite simulation modeling. Variation within each species gives an indication of what can be expected in such natural ecosystems. For P and K, the concentrations from highest to lowest were spikerush (Eleocharis macrostachya), reed canary grass (Phalaris arundinacea), smartweed (Polygonum spp.), cattail (Typha spp.), and hardstem bulrush (Schoenoplectus acutus). Spikerush had the highest N concentration, followed by smartweed, bulrush, reed canary grass, and then cattail. These parameters will be useful for the actual wetland species measured and for the wetland plant functional groups they represent. These parameters and the associated process-based models offer promise as valuable tools for evaluating environmental benefits of wetlands and for evaluating impacts of various agronomic practices in

  16. Relations among soil radon, environmental parameters, volcanic and seismic events at Mt. Etna (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giammanco, S.; Ferrera, E.; Cannata, A.; Montalto, P.; Neri, M.

    2013-12-01

    From November 2009 to April 2011 soil radon activity was continuously monitored using a Barasol probe located on the upper NE flank of Mt. Etna volcano (Italy), close both to the Piano Provenzana fault and to the NE-Rift. Seismic, volcanological and radon data were analysed together with data on environmental parameters, such as air and soil temperature, barometric pressure, snow and rain fall. In order to find possible correlations among the above parameters, and hence to reveal possible anomalous trends in the radon time-series, we used different statistical methods: i) multivariate linear regression; ii) cross-correlation; iii) coherence analysis through wavelet transform. Multivariate regression indicated a modest influence on soil radon from environmental parameters (R2 = 0.31). When using 100-day time windows, the R2 values showed wide variations in time, reaching their maxima (~0.63-0.66) during summer. Cross-correlation analysis over 100-day moving averages showed that, similar to multivariate linear regression analysis, the summer period was characterised by the best correlation between radon data and environmental parameters. Lastly, the wavelet coherence analysis allowed a multi-resolution coherence analysis of the time series acquired. This approach allowed to study the relations among different signals either in the time or in the frequency domain. It confirmed the results of the previous methods, but also allowed to recognize correlations between radon and environmental parameters at different observation scales (e.g., radon activity changed during strong precipitations, but also during anomalous variations of soil temperature uncorrelated with seasonal fluctuations). Using the above analysis, two periods were recognized when radon variations were significantly correlated with marked soil temperature changes and also with local seismic or volcanic activity. This allowed to produce two different physical models of soil gas transport that explain the

  17. Distinction between computer workers with and without work-related neck-shoulder complaints based on multiple surface EMG parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kallenberg, Laura A.C.; Hermens, Hermie J.; Vollenbroek-Hutten, Miriam M.R.

    2006-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate whether it is possible to distinguish between computer workers with (cases) and without (controls) work-related neck–shoulder complaints by combining multiple surface electromyography (EMG) parameters in a logistic regression model. Fourteen controls and 13 c

  18. Parameter optimization in differential geometry based solvation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bao; Wei, G W

    2015-10-01

    Differential geometry (DG) based solvation models are a new class of variational implicit solvent approaches that are able to avoid unphysical solvent-solute boundary definitions and associated geometric singularities, and dynamically couple polar and non-polar interactions in a self-consistent framework. Our earlier study indicates that DG based non-polar solvation model outperforms other methods in non-polar solvation energy predictions. However, the DG based full solvation model has not shown its superiority in solvation analysis, due to its difficulty in parametrization, which must ensure the stability of the solution of strongly coupled nonlinear Laplace-Beltrami and Poisson-Boltzmann equations. In this work, we introduce new parameter learning algorithms based on perturbation and convex optimization theories to stabilize the numerical solution and thus achieve an optimal parametrization of the DG based solvation models. An interesting feature of the present DG based solvation model is that it provides accurate solvation free energy predictions for both polar and non-polar molecules in a unified formulation. Extensive numerical experiment demonstrates that the present DG based solvation model delivers some of the most accurate predictions of the solvation free energies for a large number of molecules.

  19. Parameter Estimation in Stochastic Grey-Box Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Niels Rode; Madsen, Henrik; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2004-01-01

    An efficient and flexible parameter estimation scheme for grey-box models in the sense of discretely, partially observed Ito stochastic differential equations with measurement noise is presented along with a corresponding software implementation. The estimation scheme is based on the extended...... Kalman filter and features maximum likelihood as well as maximum a posteriori estimation on multiple independent data sets, including irregularly sampled data sets and data sets with occasional outliers and missing observations. The software implementation is compared to an existing software tool...

  20. Strong absorption model and radial parameters of medium-weight nuclei

    CERN Document Server

    Kuterbekov, K A

    2002-01-01

    The results of analysis of the angular distributions of differential cross sections for elastic scattering in the medium-weight nuclei in the framework strong absorption model are given. There are presented the A-relations of interaction radius, the data of radial parameters of even isotopes with mass number A=64-124 are obtained. (author)

  1. Trend Validation of a Musculoskeletal Model with a Workstation Design Parameter

    CERN Document Server

    Pontonnier, Charles; Samani, Afshin; Dumont, Georges; Madeleine, Pascal

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this article is to present the application of a trend validation to validate a simulation model. The workstation parameter used to define the trend is the table height of simulated meat cutting tasks (well known to be related to MSD).

  2. Modelling of bio-optical parameters of open ocean waters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vadim N. Pelevin

    2001-12-01

    Full Text Available An original method for estimating the concentration of chlorophyll pigments, absorption of yellow substance and absorption of suspended matter without pigments and yellow substance in detritus using spectral diffuse attenuation coefficient for downwelling irradiance and irradiance reflectance data has been applied to sea waters of different types in the open ocean (case 1. Using the effective numerical single parameter classification with the water type optical index m as a parameter over the whole range of the open ocean waters, the calculations have been carried out and the light absorption spectra of sea waters tabulated. These spectra are used to optimize the absorption models and thus to estimate the concentrations of the main admixtures in sea water. The value of m can be determined from direct measurements of the downward irradiance attenuation coefficient at 500 nm or calculated from remote sensing data using the regressions given in the article. The sea water composition can then be readily estimated from the tables given for any open ocean area if that one parameter m characterizing the basin is known.

  3. The relative importance and interrelations between behavior parameters for robots' mood expression

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xu, J.; Broekens, J.; Hindriks, K.; Neerincx, M.A.

    2013-01-01

    Bodily expression of affect is crucial to human robot interaction. Our work aims at designing bodily expression of mood that does not interrupt ongoing functional behaviors. We propose a behavior model containing specific (pose and motion) parameters that characterize the behavior. Parameter modulat

  4. Parameter sensitivity analysis of a simplified electrochemical and thermal model for Li-ion batteries aging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edouard, C.; Petit, M.; Forgez, C.; Bernard, J.; Revel, R.

    2016-09-01

    In this work, a simplified electrochemical and thermal model that can predict both physicochemical and aging behavior of Li-ion batteries is studied. A sensitivity analysis of all its physical parameters is performed in order to find out their influence on the model output based on simulations under various conditions. The results gave hints on whether a parameter needs particular attention when measured or identified and on the conditions (e.g. temperature, discharge rate) under which it is the most sensitive. A specific simulation profile is designed for parameters involved in aging equations in order to determine their sensitivity. Finally, a step-wise method is followed to limit the influence of parameter values when identifying some of them, according to their relative sensitivity from the study. This sensitivity analysis and the subsequent step-wise identification method show very good results, such as a better fitting of the simulated cell voltage with experimental data.

  5. Spatial extrapolation of light use efficiency model parameters to predict gross primary production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karsten Schulz

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available To capture the spatial and temporal variability of the gross primary production as a key component of the global carbon cycle, the light use efficiency modeling approach in combination with remote sensing data has shown to be well suited. Typically, the model parameters, such as the maximum light use efficiency, are either set to a universal constant or to land class dependent values stored in look-up tables. In this study, we employ the machine learning technique support vector regression to explicitly relate the model parameters of a light use efficiency model calibrated at several FLUXNET sites to site-specific characteristics obtained by meteorological measurements, ecological estimations and remote sensing data. A feature selection algorithm extracts the relevant site characteristics in a cross-validation, and leads to an individual set of characteristic attributes for each parameter. With this set of attributes, the model parameters can be estimated at sites where a parameter calibration is not possible due to the absence of eddy covariance flux measurement data. This will finally allow a spatially continuous model application. The performance of the spatial extrapolation scheme is evaluated with a cross-validation approach, which shows the methodology to be well suited to recapture the variability of gross primary production across the study sites.

  6. Failure analysis of parameter-induced simulation crashes in climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. D. Lucas

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Simulations using IPCC-class climate models are subject to fail or crash for a variety of reasons. Quantitative analysis of the failures can yield useful insights to better understand and improve the models. During the course of uncertainty quantification (UQ ensemble simulations to assess the effects of ocean model parameter uncertainties on climate simulations, we experienced a series of simulation crashes within the Parallel Ocean Program (POP2 component of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4. About 8.5% of our CCSM4 simulations failed for numerical reasons at combinations of POP2 parameter values. We apply support vector machine (SVM classification from machine learning to quantify and predict the probability of failure as a function of the values of 18 POP2 parameters. A committee of SVM classifiers readily predicts model failures in an independent validation ensemble, as assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve metric (AUC > 0.96. The causes of the simulation failures are determined through a global sensitivity analysis. Combinations of 8 parameters related to ocean mixing and viscosity from three different POP2 parameterizations are the major sources of the failures. This information can be used to improve POP2 and CCSM4 by incorporating correlations across the relevant parameters. Our method can also be used to quantify, predict, and understand simulation crashes in other complex geoscientific models.

  7. Failure analysis of parameter-induced simulation crashes in climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. D. Lucas

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Simulations using IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-class climate models are subject to fail or crash for a variety of reasons. Quantitative analysis of the failures can yield useful insights to better understand and improve the models. During the course of uncertainty quantification (UQ ensemble simulations to assess the effects of ocean model parameter uncertainties on climate simulations, we experienced a series of simulation crashes within the Parallel Ocean Program (POP2 component of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4. About 8.5% of our CCSM4 simulations failed for numerical reasons at combinations of POP2 parameter values. We applied support vector machine (SVM classification from machine learning to quantify and predict the probability of failure as a function of the values of 18 POP2 parameters. A committee of SVM classifiers readily predicted model failures in an independent validation ensemble, as assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve metric (AUC > 0.96. The causes of the simulation failures were determined through a global sensitivity analysis. Combinations of 8 parameters related to ocean mixing and viscosity from three different POP2 parameterizations were the major sources of the failures. This information can be used to improve POP2 and CCSM4 by incorporating correlations across the relevant parameters. Our method can also be used to quantify, predict, and understand simulation crashes in other complex geoscientific models.

  8. An improved method for nonlinear parameter estimation: a case study of the Rössler model

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Wen-Ping; Wang, Liu; Jiang, Yun-Di; Wan, Shi-Quan

    2016-08-01

    Parameter estimation is an important research topic in nonlinear dynamics. Based on the evolutionary algorithm (EA), Wang et al. (2014) present a new scheme for nonlinear parameter estimation and numerical tests indicate that the estimation precision is satisfactory. However, the convergence rate of the EA is relatively slow when multiple unknown parameters in a multidimensional dynamical system are estimated simultaneously. To solve this problem, an improved method for parameter estimation of nonlinear dynamical equations is provided in the present paper. The main idea of the improved scheme is to use all of the known time series for all of the components in some dynamical equations to estimate the parameters in single component one by one, instead of estimating all of the parameters in all of the components simultaneously. Thus, we can estimate all of the parameters stage by stage. The performance of the improved method was tested using a classic chaotic system—Rössler model. The numerical tests show that the amended parameter estimation scheme can greatly improve the searching efficiency and that there is a significant increase in the convergence rate of the EA, particularly for multiparameter estimation in multidimensional dynamical equations. Moreover, the results indicate that the accuracy of parameter estimation and the CPU time consumed by the presented method have no obvious dependence on the sample size.

  9. Breakdown parameter for kinetic modeling of multiscale gas flows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Jianping; Dongari, Nishanth; Reese, Jason M; Zhang, Yonghao

    2014-06-01

    Multiscale methods built purely on the kinetic theory of gases provide information about the molecular velocity distribution function. It is therefore both important and feasible to establish new breakdown parameters for assessing the appropriateness of a fluid description at the continuum level by utilizing kinetic information rather than macroscopic flow quantities alone. We propose a new kinetic criterion to indirectly assess the errors introduced by a continuum-level description of the gas flow. The analysis, which includes numerical demonstrations, focuses on the validity of the Navier-Stokes-Fourier equations and corresponding kinetic models and reveals that the new criterion can consistently indicate the validity of continuum-level modeling in both low-speed and high-speed flows at different Knudsen numbers.

  10. Structural Breaks, Parameter Stability and Energy Demand Modeling in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olusegun A. Omisakin

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper extends previous studies in modeling and estimating energy demand functions for both gasoline and kerosene petroleum products for Nigeria from 1977 to 2008. In contrast to earlier studies on Nigeria and other developing countries, this study specifically tests for the possibility of structural breaks/regime shifts and parameter instability in the energy demand functions using more recent and robust techniques. In addition, the study considers an alternative model specification which primarily captures the price-income interaction effects on both gasoline and kerosene demand functions. While the conventional residual-based cointegration tests employed fail to identify any meaningful long run relationship in both functions, the Gregory-Hansen structural break cointegration approach confirms the cointegration relationships despite the breakpoints. Both functions are also found to be stable under the period studied.The elasticity estimates also follow the a priori expectation being inelastic both in the long- and short run for the two functions.

  11. A novel criterion for determination of material model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade-Campos, A.; de-Carvalho, R.; Valente, R. A. F.

    2011-05-01

    Parameter identification problems have emerged due to the increasing demanding of precision in the numerical results obtained by Finite Element Method (FEM) software. High result precision can only be obtained with confident input data and robust numerical techniques. The determination of parameters should always be performed confronting numerical and experimental results leading to the minimum difference between them. However, the success of this task is dependent of the specification of the cost/objective function, defined as the difference between the experimental and the numerical results. Recently, various objective functions have been formulated to assess the errors between the experimental and computed data (Lin et al., 2002; Cao and Lin, 2008; among others). The objective functions should be able to efficiently lead the optimisation process. An ideal objective function should have the following properties: (i) all the experimental data points on the curve and all experimental curves should have equal opportunity to be optimised; and (ii) different units and/or the number of curves in each sub-objective should not affect the overall performance of the fitting. These two criteria should be achieved without manually choosing the weighting factors. However, for some non-analytical specific problems, this is very difficult in practice. Null values of experimental or numerical values also turns the task difficult. In this work, a novel objective function for constitutive model parameter identification is presented. It is a generalization of the work of Cao and Lin and it is suitable for all kinds of constitutive models and mechanical tests, including cyclic tests and Baushinger tests with null values.

  12. Standard model parameters and the search for new physics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marciano, W.J.

    1988-04-01

    In these lectures, my aim is to present an up-to-date status report on the standard model and some key tests of electroweak unification. Within that context, I also discuss how and where hints of new physics may emerge. To accomplish those goals, I have organized my presentation as follows: I discuss the standard model parameters with particular emphasis on the gauge coupling constants and vector boson masses. Examples of new physics appendages are also briefly commented on. In addition, because these lectures are intended for students and thus somewhat pedagogical, I have included an appendix on dimensional regularization and a simple computational example that employs that technique. Next, I focus on weak charged current phenomenology. Precision tests of the standard model are described and up-to-date values for the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa (CKM) mixing matrix parameters are presented. Constraints implied by those tests for a 4th generation, supersymmetry, extra Z/prime/ bosons, and compositeness are also discussed. I discuss weak neutral current phenomenology and the extraction of sin/sup 2/ /theta//sub W/ from experiment. The results presented there are based on a recently completed global analysis of all existing data. I have chosen to concentrate that discussion on radiative corrections, the effect of a heavy top quark mass, and implications for grand unified theories (GUTS). The potential for further experimental progress is also commented on. I depart from the narrowest version of the standard model and discuss effects of neutrino masses and mixings. I have chosen to concentrate on oscillations, the Mikheyev-Smirnov- Wolfenstein (MSW) effect, and electromagnetic properties of neutrinos. On the latter topic, I will describe some recent work on resonant spin-flavor precession. Finally, I conclude with a prospectus on hopes for the future. 76 refs.

  13. Optimal parameters for the Green-Ampt infiltration model under rainfall conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Li

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The Green-Ampt (GA model is widely used in hydrologic studies as a simple, physically-based method to estimate infiltration processes. The accuracy of the model for applications under rainfall conditions (as opposed to initially ponded situations has not been studied extensively. We compared calculated rainfall infiltration results for various soils obtained using existing GA parameterizations with those obtained by solving the Richards equation for variably saturated flow. Results provided an overview of GA model performance evaluated by means of a root-meansquare- error-based objective function across a large region in GA parameter space as compared to the Richards equation, which showed a need for seeking optimal GA parameters. Subsequent analysis enabled the identification of optimal GA parameters that provided a close fit with the Richards equation. The optimal parameters were found to substantially outperform the standard theoretical parameters, thus improving the utility and accuracy of the GA model for infiltration simulations under rainfall conditions. A sensitivity analyses indicated that the optimal parameters may change for some rainfall scenarios, but are relatively stable for high-intensity rainfall events.

  14. Development of regional parameter estimation equations for a macroscale hydrologic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdulla, Fayez A.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

    1997-10-01

    A methodology for developing regional parameter estimation equations, designed for application to continental scale river basins, is described. The approach, which is applied to the two-layer Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC-2L) land surface hydrologic model, uses a set of 34 unregulated calibration or "training" catchments (drainage areas 10 2-10 4 km 2) distributed throughout the Arkansas-Red River basin of the south central U.S. For each of these catchments, parameters were determined by: a) prior estimation of two of the model parameters (saturated hydraulic conductivity and pore size distribution index) from the U.S. Soil Conservation Service State Soil Geographic Data Base (STATSGO) data base; and b) estimation of the remaining seven parameters via a search procedure that minimizes the sum of squares of differences between predicted and observed streamflow. The catchment parameters were then related to 11 ancillary distributed land surface characteristics extracted from STATSGO, and 17 variables derived from station meteorological data. The seven regression equations explained from 54 to 76% of the variance of the parameters. The most frequently occurring ancillary variables were the average permeability, saturated hydraulic conductivity, and SCS hydrologic Group B (typically soils with moderately high infiltration rates) fraction derived from STATSGO, and the average temperature and standard deviation of fall precipitation. The method was tested by comparing simulations using the regional (regression equation) parameters for six unregulated catchments not in the parameter estimation set. The model performance using the regional parameters was quite good for most of the calibration and validation catchments, which were humid and semi-humid. The model did not perform as well for the smaller number of arid to semi-arid catchments.

  15. Varying parameter models to accommodate dynamic promotion effects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Foekens, E.W.; Leeflang, P.S.H.; Wittink, D.R.

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to examine the dynamic effects of sales promotions. We create dynamic brand sales models (for weekly store-level scanner data) by relating store intercepts and a brand's own price elasticity to a measure of the cumulated previous price discounts - amount and time - for t

  16. Varying parameter models to accommodate dynamic promotion effects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Foekens, E.W.; Leeflang, P.S.H.; Wittink, D.R.

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to examine the dynamic effects of sales promotions. We create dynamic brand sales models (for weekly store-level scanner data) by relating store intercepts and a brand's own price elasticity to a measure of the cumulated previous price discounts - amount and time - for

  17. Optimization of process parameters in drilling of fibre hybrid composite using Taguchi and grey relational analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vijaya Ramnath, B.; Sharavanan, S.; Jeykrishnan, J.

    2017-03-01

    Nowadays quality plays a vital role in all the products. Hence, the development in manufacturing process focuses on the fabrication of composite with high dimensional accuracy and also incurring low manufacturing cost. In this work, an investigation on machining parameters has been performed on jute-flax hybrid composite. Here, the two important responses characteristics like surface roughness and material removal rate are optimized by employing 3 machining input parameters. The input variables considered are drill bit diameter, spindle speed and feed rate. Machining is done on CNC vertical drilling machine at different levels of drilling parameters. Taguchi’s L16 orthogonal array is used for optimizing individual tool parameters. Analysis Of Variance is used to find the significance of individual parameters. The simultaneous optimization of the process parameters is done by grey relational analysis. The results of this investigation shows that, spindle speed and drill bit diameter have most effect on material removal rate and surface roughness followed by feed rate.

  18. Life table parameters of three Mirid Bug (Adelphocoris species (Hemiptera: Miridae under contrasted relative humidity regimes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongsheng Pan

    Full Text Available The genus Adelphocoris (Hemiptera: Miridae is a group of important insect pests of Bt cotton in China. The three dominant species are A. lineolatus, A. suturalis, and A. fasciaticollis, and these species have different population dynamics. The causal factors for the differences in population dynamics have not been determined; one hypothesis is that humidity may be important for the growth of Adelphocoris populations. In the laboratory, the demographic parameters of the three Adelphocoris species were compared when the mirid bugs were subjected to various levels of relative humidity (40, 50, 60, 70 and 80% RH. Middle to high levels of RH (60, 70 and 80% were associated with higher egg and nymph survival rates and increased adult longevity and female fecundity. Lower humidity levels (40 and 50% RH had negative effects on the survival of nymphs, adult longevity and fecundity. The intrinsic rate of increase (rm, the net reproductive rate (R0 and the finite rate of increase (λ for each Adelphocoris species increased with increasing RH. Significant positive relationships were found between RH and the life table parameters, rm, R0 and λ for the three Adelphocoris species. These results will help to better understand the phenology of the three Adelphocoris species, and the information can be used in population growth models to optimize pest forecasting and management strategies for these key pests.

  19. Assessing composition and structure of soft biphasic media from Kelvin-Voigt fractional derivative model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hongmei; Wang, Yue; Fatemi, Mostafa; Insana, Michael F.

    2017-03-01

    Kelvin-Voigt fractional derivative (KVFD) model parameters have been used to describe viscoelastic properties of soft tissues. However, translating model parameters into a concise set of intrinsic mechanical properties related to tissue composition and structure remains challenging. This paper begins by exploring these relationships using a biphasic emulsion materials with known composition. Mechanical properties are measured by analyzing data from two indentation techniques—ramp-stress relaxation and load-unload hysteresis tests. Material composition is predictably correlated with viscoelastic model parameters. Model parameters estimated from the tests reveal that elastic modulus E 0 closely approximates the shear modulus for pure gelatin. Fractional-order parameter α and time constant τ vary monotonically with the volume fraction of the material’s fluid component. α characterizes medium fluidity and the rate of energy dissipation, and τ is a viscous time constant. Numerical simulations suggest that the viscous coefficient η is proportional to the energy lost during quasi-static force-displacement cycles, E A . The slope of E A versus η is determined by α and the applied indentation ramp time T r. Experimental measurements from phantom and ex vivo liver data show close agreement with theoretical predictions of the η -{{E}A} relation. The relative error is less than 20% for emulsions 22% for liver. We find that KVFD model parameters form a concise features space for biphasic medium characterization that described time-varying mechanical properties. The experimental work was carried out at the Beckman Institute for Advanced Science and Technology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, USA. Methodological development, including numerical simulation and all data analysis, were carried out at the school of Life Science and Technology, Xi’an JiaoTong University, 710049, China.

  20. Pressure pulsation in roller pumps: a validated lumped parameter model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moscato, Francesco; Colacino, Francesco M; Arabia, Maurizio; Danieli, Guido A

    2008-11-01

    During open-heart surgery roller pumps are often used to keep the circulation of blood through the patient body. They present numerous key features, but they suffer from several limitations: (a) they normally deliver uncontrolled pulsatile inlet and outlet pressure; (b) blood damage appears to be more than that encountered with centrifugal pumps. A lumped parameter mathematical model of a roller pump (Sarns 7000, Terumo CVS, Ann Arbor, MI, USA) was developed to dynamically simulate pressures at the pump inlet and outlet in order to clarify the uncontrolled pulsation mechanism. Inlet and outlet pressures obtained by the mathematical model have been compared with those measured in various operating conditions: different rollers' rotating speed, different tube occlusion rates, and different clamping degree at the pump inlet and outlet. Model results agree with measured pressure waveforms, whose oscillations are generated by the tube compression/release mechanism during the rollers' engaging and disengaging phases. Average Euclidean Error (AEE) was 20mmHg and 33mmHg for inlet and outlet pressure estimates, respectively. The normalized AEE never exceeded 0.16. The developed model can be exploited for designing roller pumps with improved performances aimed at reducing the undesired pressure pulsation.

  1. Evaluation of the impact of adjusting the angle of the axis of a wind turbine rotor relative to the flow of air stream on operating parameters of a wind turbine model

    OpenAIRE

    Gumuła Stanisław; Piaskowska–Silarska Małgorzata; Pytel Krzysztof; Noga Henryk; Kulinowski Wojciech

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the effect of regulation of an axis of a wind turbine rotor to the direction of wind on the volume of energy produced by wind turbines. A role of an optimal setting of the blades of the wind turbine rotor was specified, as well. According to the measurements, changes in the tilt angle of the axis of the wind turbine rotor in relation to the air stream flow direction cause changes in the use of wind energy. The publication explores the effects of the oper...

  2. Parameter identification and global sensitivity analysis of Xinanjiang model using meta-modeling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-meng SONG

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Parameter identification, model calibration, and uncertainty quantification are important steps in the model-building process, and are necessary for obtaining credible results and valuable information. Sensitivity analysis of hydrological model is a key step in model uncertainty quantification, which can identify the dominant parameters, reduce the model calibration uncertainty, and enhance the model optimization efficiency. There are, however, some shortcomings in classical approaches, including the long duration of time and high computation cost required to quantitatively assess the sensitivity of a multiple-parameter hydrological model. For this reason, a two-step statistical evaluation framework using global techniques is presented. It is based on (1 a screening method (Morris for qualitative ranking of parameters, and (2 a variance-based method integrated with a meta-model for quantitative sensitivity analysis, i.e., the Sobol method integrated with the response surface model (RSMSobol. First, the Morris screening method was used to qualitatively identify the parameters’ sensitivity, and then ten parameters were selected to quantify the sensitivity indices. Subsequently, the RSMSobol method was used to quantify the sensitivity, i.e., the first-order and total sensitivity indices based on the response surface model (RSM were calculated. The RSMSobol method can not only quantify the sensitivity, but also reduce the computational cost, with good accuracy compared to the classical approaches. This approach will be effective and reliable in the global sensitivity analysis of a complex large-scale distributed hydrological model.

  3. Relation of Certain Quantum Chemical Parameters to Lubrication Behavior of Solid Oxides

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuansheng Jin

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: It is well-documented that certain oxides (such as Re2O7, B2O3, MoO3, V2O5, etc. can provide friction coefficients of 0.1-0.3 to sliding surfaces at elevated temperatures and thus they are often referred to as lubricious oxides in the tribology literature. In a recently proposed crystal chemical model, Erdemir was able to establish a close correlation between the reported friction coefficients of such oxides and their ionic potentials [1]. In the present paper, we expand on this original concept and explore the relevance of two other quantum chemical parameters, electronegativity and chemical hardness, to the lubricity of solid oxides. These parameters have already been used by scientists to explain the nature of tribochemical interactions between various oil additives and sliding surfaces. It is conceivable that electronegativity and chemical hardness may also be strongly related to the extent of adhesive interactions and shear rheology of solid oxides and hence to their lubricity. The new results have confirmed that electronegativity, like ionic potential, is indeed a valid quantum chemistry parameter that can be used in predicting the lubrication behavior of solid oxides. Generally, the higher the electronegativity of the solid oxides is, the lower the friction coefficients will be. However, chemical hardness did not yield a similar trend. In light of these new findings, we propose some guidelines for the formulation of novel oxide or alloy systems that can lead to the formation of lubricious oxides at elevated temperatures. The findings of this study may pave the way for designer-based tribosystems in general and smart tribochemical systems in particular in future tribological applications such as dry machining.

  4. Mathematical Model for the Selection of Processing Parameters in Selective Laser Sintering of Polymer Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Pilipović

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Additive manufacturing (AM is increasingly applied in the development projects from the initial idea to the finished product. The reasons are multiple, but what should be emphasised is the possibility of relatively rapid manufacturing of the products of complicated geometry based on the computer 3D model of the product. There are numerous limitations primarily in the number of available materials and their properties, which may be quite different from the properties of the material of the finished product. Therefore, it is necessary to know the properties of the product materials. In AM procedures the mechanical properties of materials are affected by the manufacturing procedure and the production parameters. During SLS procedures it is possible to adjust various manufacturing parameters which are used to influence the improvement of various mechanical and other properties of the products. The paper sets a new mathematical model to determine the influence of individual manufacturing parameters on the polymer product made by selective laser sintering. Old mathematical model is checked by statistical method with central composite plan and it is established that old mathematical model must be expanded with new parameter beam overlay ratio. Verification of new mathematical model and optimization of the processing parameters are made on SLS machine.

  5. Constraining model parameters on remotely sensed evaporation: justification for distribution in ungauged basins?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. C. Winsemius

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, land surface related parameter distributions of a conceptual semi-distributed hydrological model are constrained by employing time series of satellite-based evaporation estimates during the dry season as explanatory information. The approach has been applied to the ungauged Luangwa river basin (150 000 (km2 in Zambia. The information contained in these evaporation estimates imposes compliance of the model with the largest outgoing water balance term, evaporation, and a spatially and temporally realistic depletion of soil moisture within the dry season. The model results in turn provide a better understanding of the information density of remotely sensed evaporation. Model parameters to which evaporation is sensitive, have been spatially distributed on the basis of dominant land cover characteristics. Consequently, their values were conditioned by means of Monte-Carlo sampling and evaluation on satellite evaporation estimates. The results show that behavioural parameter sets for model units with similar land cover are indeed clustered. The clustering reveals hydrologically meaningful signatures in the parameter response surface: wetland-dominated areas (also called dambos show optimal parameter ranges that reflect vegetation with a relatively small unsaturated zone (due to the shallow rooting depth of the vegetation which is easily moisture stressed. The forested areas and highlands show parameter ranges that indicate a much deeper root zone which is more drought resistent. Clustering was consequently used to formulate fuzzy membership functions that can be used to constrain parameter realizations in further calibration. Unrealistic parameter ranges, found for instance in the high unsaturated soil zone values in the highlands may indicate either overestimation of satellite-based evaporation or model structural deficiencies. We believe that in these areas, groundwater uptake into the root zone and lateral movement of

  6. Assessing FPAR Source and Parameter Optimization Scheme in Application of a Diagnostic Carbon Flux Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turner, D P; Ritts, W D; Wharton, S; Thomas, C; Monson, R; Black, T A

    2009-02-26

    The combination of satellite remote sensing and carbon cycle models provides an opportunity for regional to global scale monitoring of terrestrial gross primary production, ecosystem respiration, and net ecosystem production. FPAR (the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by the plant canopy) is a critical input to diagnostic models, however little is known about the relative effectiveness of FPAR products from different satellite sensors nor about the sensitivity of flux estimates to different parameterization approaches. In this study, we used multiyear observations of carbon flux at four eddy covariance flux tower sites within the conifer biome to evaluate these factors. FPAR products from the MODIS and SeaWiFS sensors, and the effects of single site vs. cross-site parameter optimization were tested with the CFLUX model. The SeaWiFs FPAR product showed greater dynamic range across sites and resulted in slightly reduced flux estimation errors relative to the MODIS product when using cross-site optimization. With site-specific parameter optimization, the flux model was effective in capturing seasonal and interannual variation in the carbon fluxes at these sites. The cross-site prediction errors were lower when using parameters from a cross-site optimization compared to parameter sets from optimization at single sites. These results support the practice of multisite optimization within a biome for parameterization of diagnostic carbon flux models.

  7. Finding model parameters: Genetic algorithms and the numerical modelling of quartz luminescence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adamiec, Grzegorz [Department of Radioisotopes, Institute of Physics, Silesian University of Technology, ul. Krzywoustego 2, 44-100 Gliwice (Poland)]. E-mail: grzegorz.adamiec@polsl.pl; Bluszcz, Andrzej [Department of Radioisotopes, Institute of Physics, Silesian University of Technology, ul. Krzywoustego 2, 44-100 Gliwice (Poland); Bailey, Richard [Department of Geography, Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham, Surrey, TW20 0EX (United Kingdom); Garcia-Talavera, Marta [LIBRA, Centro I-D, Campus Miguel Delibes, 47011 Valladolid (Spain)

    2006-08-15

    The paper presents an application of genetic algorithms (GAs) to the problem of finding appropriate parameter values for the numerical simulation of quartz thermoluminescence (TL). We show that with the use of GAs it is possible to achieve a very good match between simulated and experimentally measured characteristics of quartz, for example the thermal activation characteristics of fired quartz. The rate equations of charge transport in the numerical model of luminescence in quartz contain a large number of parameters (trap depths, frequency factors, populations, charge capture probabilities, optical detrapping probabilities, and recombination probabilities). Given that comprehensive models consist of over 10 traps, finding model parameters proves a very difficult task. Manual parameter changes are very time consuming and allow only a limited degree of accuracy. GAs provide a semi-automatic way of finding appropriate parameters.

  8. Inverse modeling of hydrologic parameters using surface flux and runoff observations in the Community Land Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Sun

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This study demonstrates the possibility of inverting hydrologic parameters using surface flux and runoff observations in version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4. Previous studies showed that surface flux and runoff calculations are sensitive to major hydrologic parameters in CLM4 over different watersheds, and illustrated the necessity and possibility of parameter calibration. Two inversion strategies, the deterministic least-square fitting and stochastic Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC Bayesian inversion approaches, are evaluated by applying them to CLM4 at selected sites. The unknowns to be estimated include surface and subsurface runoff generation parameters and vadose zone soil water parameters. We find that using model parameters calibrated by the least-square fitting provides little improvements in the model simulations but the sampling-based stochastic inversion approaches are consistent – as more information comes in, the predictive intervals of the calibrated parameters become narrower and the misfits between the calculated and observed responses decrease. In general, parameters that are identified to be significant through sensitivity analyses and statistical tests are better calibrated than those with weak or nonlinear impacts on flux or runoff observations. Temporal resolution of observations has larger impacts on the results of inverse modeling using heat flux data than runoff data. Soil and vegetation cover have important impacts on parameter sensitivities, leading to different patterns of posterior distributions of parameters at different sites. Overall, the MCMC-Bayesian inversion approach effectively and reliably improves the simulation of CLM under different climates and environmental conditions. Bayesian model averaging of the posterior estimates with different reference acceptance probabilities can smooth the posterior distribution and provide more reliable parameter estimates, but at the expense of wider uncertainty

  9. Bayesian Statistics and Parameter Constraints on the Generalized Chaplygin Gas Model using SNe Ia Data

    CERN Document Server

    Colistete, R C; Goncalves, S V B

    2004-01-01

    The type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) observational data are used to estimate the parameters of a cosmological model with cold dark matter and the generalized Chaplygin gas model (GCGM). The GCGM depends essentially on five parameters: the Hubble constant, the parameter $\\bar{A}$ related to the velocity of the sound, the equation of state parameter $\\alpha$, the curvature of the Universe and the fraction density of the generalized Chaplygin gas (or the cold dark matter). The parameter $\\alpha$ is allowed to take negative values and to be greater than 1. The Bayesian parameter estimation yields $\\alpha = - 0.86^{+6.01}_{-0.15}$, $H_0 = 62.0^{+1.32}_{-1.42} km/Mpc.s$, $\\Omega _{k0}=-1.26_{-1.42}^{+1.32}$, $\\Omega_{m0} = 0.00^{+0.86}_{-0.00}$, $\\Omega_{c0} = 1.39^{+1.21}_{-1.25}$, $\\bar A =1.00^{+0.00}_{-0.39}$, $t_0 = 15.3^{+4.2}_{-3.2}$ and $q_0 = -0.80^{+0.86}_{-0.62}$, where $t_0$ is the age of the Universe and $q_0$ is the value of the deceleration parameter today. Our results indicate that a Universe completely ...

  10. Relevant parameters in models of cell division control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grilli, Jacopo; Osella, Matteo; Kennard, Andrew S.; Lagomarsino, Marco Cosentino

    2017-03-01

    A recent burst of dynamic single-cell data makes it possible to characterize the stochastic dynamics of cell division control in bacteria. Different models were used to propose specific mechanisms, but the links between them are poorly explored. The lack of comparative studies makes it difficult to appreciate how well any particular mechanism is supported by the data. Here, we describe a simple and generic framework in which two common formalisms can be used interchangeably: (i) a continuous-time division process described by a hazard function and (ii) a discrete-time equation describing cell size across generations (where the unit of time is a cell cycle). In our framework, this second process is a discrete-time Langevin equation with simple physical analogues. By perturbative expansion around the mean initial size (or interdivision time), we show how this framework describes a wide range of division control mechanisms, including combinations of time and size control, as well as the constant added size mechanism recently found to capture several aspects of the cell division behavior of different bacteria. As we show by analytical estimates and numerical simulations, the available data are described precisely by the first-order approximation of this expansion, i.e., by a "linear response" regime for the correction of size fluctuations. Hence, a single dimensionless parameter defines the strength and action of the division control against cell-to-cell variability (quantified by a single "noise" parameter). However, the same strength of linear response may emerge from several mechanisms, which are distinguished only by higher-order terms in the perturbative expansion. Our analytical estimate of the sample size needed to distinguish between second-order effects shows that this value is close to but larger than the values of the current datasets. These results provide a unified framework for future studies and clarify the relevant parameters at play in the control of

  11. Parameter estimation in biogeochimical surface model using nonlinear inversion: optimization with measurements over a pine forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santaren, D.; Peylin, P.; Viovy, N.; Ciais, P.

    2003-04-01

    Global model of Carbone, water, and energy exchanges between the biosphere and the atmosphere are usually validated and calibrated with intensive measurement made over specific ecosystem like those of the fluxnet networks.However the nonlinear dependance between fluxes and model parameters generally complicate the optimization of the major parameters.In this study, we estimate few key parameters of the ORCHIDEE french model,using diurnal variation measurements of latent heat,sensible heat and net CO2 fluxes for 3 weeks over pine forest (Landes, France).The model is forced with the observed climatic forcing: Temperature, income solar radiations,wind velocity norm, air humidity, pressure and precipitations. We will first present the inverse methodology and the problem linkedto the non linearity. The result of the optimization shows correlations within the initial ensemble of parameters which allow us to choose only five parameters determined independently from the observations. Directly related to the net CO2 flux, the maximum rate of carboxylation,Vcmax,and the stomatal conductance, gs, are significantly changed from their apriori estimate for that period. The aerodynamic resistance, the albedo and a parameter linked to maintenance respiration were also modified within their physical range.Overall the model fit to the data was largely improved. Note however that some discrepancies remain for sensible heat flux which would probably require some model improvements for the stocking of energy in the soil. Such work is currently extended in time to account for parameter variations between the season. The application to other ecosystems and with the supplementary data of the Leaf Area Index will be also discussed.

  12. Analysis report for WIPP colloid model constraints and performance assessment parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mariner, Paul E.; Sassani, David Carl

    2014-03-01

    An analysis of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) colloid model constraints and parameter values was performed. The focus of this work was primarily on intrinsic colloids, mineral fragment colloids, and humic substance colloids, with a lesser focus on microbial colloids. Comments by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) concerning intrinsic Th(IV) colloids and Mg-Cl-OH mineral fragment colloids were addressed in detail, assumptions and data used to constrain colloid model calculations were evaluated, and inconsistencies between data and model parameter values were identified. This work resulted in a list of specific conclusions regarding model integrity, model conservatism, and opportunities for improvement related to each of the four colloid types included in the WIPP performance assessment.

  13. Dynamical model development and parameter identification for an anaerobic wastewater treatment process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernard, O; Hadj-Sadok, Z; Dochain, D; Genovesi, A; Steyer, J P

    2001-11-20

    This paper deals with the development and the parameter identification of an anaerobic digestion process model. A two-step (acidogenesis-methanization) mass-balance model has been considered. The model incorporates electrochemical equilibria in order to include the alkalinity, which has to play a central role in the related monitoring and control strategy of a treatment plant. The identification is based on a set of dynamical experiments designed to cover a wide spectrum of operating conditions that are likely to take place in the practical operation of the plant. A step by step identification procedure to estimate the model parameters is presented. The results of 70 days of experiments in a 1-m(3) fermenter are then used to validate the model.

  14. Parameter estimation and hypothesis testing in linear models

    CERN Document Server

    Koch, Karl-Rudolf

    1999-01-01

    The necessity to publish the second edition of this book arose when its third German edition had just been published. This second English edition is there­ fore a translation of the third German edition of Parameter Estimation and Hypothesis Testing in Linear Models, published in 1997. It differs from the first English edition by the addition of a new chapter on robust estimation of parameters and the deletion of the section on discriminant analysis, which has been more completely dealt with by the author in the book Bayesian In­ ference with Geodetic Applications, Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg New York, 1990. Smaller additions and deletions have been incorporated, to im­ prove the text, to point out new developments or to eliminate errors which became apparent. A few examples have been also added. I thank Springer-Verlag for publishing this second edition and for the assistance in checking the translation, although the responsibility of errors remains with the author. I also want to express my thanks...

  15. Short-Term Solar Irradiance Forecasting Model Based on Artificial Neural Network Using Statistical Feature Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongshan Zhao

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Short-term solar irradiance forecasting (STSIF is of great significance for the optimal operation and power predication of grid-connected photovoltaic (PV plants. However, STSIF is very complex to handle due to the random and nonlinear characteristics of solar irradiance under changeable weather conditions. Artificial Neural Network (ANN is suitable for STSIF modeling and many research works on this topic are presented, but the conciseness and robustness of the existing models still need to be improved. After discussing the relation between weather variations and irradiance, the characteristics of the statistical feature parameters of irradiance under different weather conditions are figured out. A novel ANN model using statistical feature parameters (ANN-SFP for STSIF is proposed in this paper. The input vector is reconstructed with several statistical feature parameters of irradiance and ambient temperature. Thus sufficient information can be effectively extracted from relatively few inputs and the model complexity is reduced. The model structure is determined by cross-validation (CV, and the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm (LMA is used for the network training. Simulations are carried out to validate and compare the proposed model with the conventional ANN model using historical data series (ANN-HDS, and the results indicated that the forecast accuracy is obviously improved under variable weather conditions.

  16. The limiting behavior of the estimated parameters in a misspecified random field regression model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahl, Christian Møller; Qin, Yu

    , as a consequence the random field model specification introduces non-stationarity and non-ergodicity in the misspecified model and it becomes non-trivial, relative to the existing literature, to establish the limiting behavior of the estimated parameters. The asymptotic results are obtained by applying some...... convenient new uniform convergence results that we propose. This theory may have applications beyond those presented here. Our results indicate that classical statistical inference techniques, in general, works very well for random field regression models in finite samples and that these models succesfully...

  17. Adaptive Unified Biased Estimators of Parameters in Linear Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hu Yang; Li-xing Zhu

    2004-01-01

    To tackle multi collinearity or ill-conditioned design matrices in linear models,adaptive biased estimators such as the time-honored Stein estimator,the ridge and the principal component estimators have been studied intensively.To study when a biased estimator uniformly outperforms the least squares estimator,some suficient conditions are proposed in the literature.In this paper,we propose a unified framework to formulate a class of adaptive biased estimators.This class includes all existing biased estimators and some new ones.A suficient condition for outperforming the least squares estimator is proposed.In terms of selecting parameters in the condition,we can obtain all double-type conditions in the literature.

  18. Evaluation of the perceptual grouping parameter in the CTVA model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Cortijo

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The CODE Theory of Visual Attention (CTVA is a mathematical model explaining the effects of grouping by proximity and distance upon reaction times and accuracy of response with regard to elements in the visual display. The predictions of the theory agree quite acceptably in one and two dimensions (CTVA-2D with the experimental results (reaction times and accuracy of response. The difference between reaction-times for the compatible and incompatible responses, known as the responsecompatibility effect, is also acceptably predicted, except at small distances and high number of distractors. Further results using the same paradigm at even smaller distances have been now obtained, showing greater discrepancies. Then, we have introduced a method to evaluate the strength of sensory evidence (eta parameter, which takes grouping by similarity into account and minimizes these discrepancies.

  19. How important is heterogeneous parameter distribution in capturing the catchment response through hydrologic modelling?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devak, Manjula; Dhanya, Ct

    2017-04-01

    falling inside the basin. The performance analysis of HoSCP and HeSCP sets is done by developing the VIC model for Mahanadi basin, India, at two spatial (2° and 0.25°) and temporal (daily and monthly) resolutions. The model performance is analysed using various performance measures (NSE, RSR, R2 and PBIAS). Comparison of the annual flow patterns and the frequencies for both HeSCP and HoSCP sets, reveals that the finer resolution (0.25°) is more sensitive to the parameter distribution as compared to the coarse resolution (2°). HeSCP distribution captures annual cycle and frequencies better with relatively low uncertainty, as compared to HoSCP set. The long-term averages simulated by HeSCP set only deviates from observed data by 93 cumecs while those simulated by HoSCP deviates by 338 cumecs. Further, parameter variability is analyzed by assessing wet (>90% of observed data) and dry (help to improve the performance of hydrological modelling studies in any region. Keyword: Hydrological modelling, Auto-calibration, Parameter transferability, Heterogeneity, Semi-distributed model.

  20. Near Work Related Parameters and Myopia in Chinese Children: the Anyang Childhood Eye Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi-Ming Li

    Full Text Available To examine the associations of near work related parameters with spherical equivalent refraction and axial length in Chinese children.A total of 1770 grade 7 students with mean age of 12.7 years were examined with cycloplegic autorefraction and axial length. Questions were asked regarding time spent in near work and outdoors per day, and near work related parameters.Multivariate models revealed the following associations with greater odds of myopia: continuous reading (> 45min, odds ratio [OR], 1.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-1.8; close television viewing distance (≤ 3m, OR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.2-2.3; head tilt when writing, OR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1-1.7, and desk lighting using fluorescent vs. incandescent lamp, OR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.2-2.0. These factors, together with close reading distance and close nib-to-fingertip distance were significantly associated with greater myopia (P<0.01. Among near work activities, only reading more books for pleasure was significantly associated with greater myopia (P=0.03. Television viewing distance (≤ 3 m, fluorescent desk light, close reading distance (≤20 cm and close nib-to-fingertip distance (≤ 2 cm were significantly associated with longer axial length (P<0.01. Reading distance, desk light, and reading books for pleasure had significant interaction effects with parental myopia.Continuous reading, close distances of reading, television viewing and nib-to-fingertip, head tilt when writing, reading more books for pleasure and use of fluorescent desk light were significantly associated with myopia in 12-year-old Chinese children, which indicates that visual behaviors and environments may be important factors mediating the effects of near work on myopia.

  1. Fundamental M-dwarf parameters from high-resolution spectra using PHOENIX ACES models: I. Parameter accuracy and benchmark stars

    CERN Document Server

    Passegger, Vera Maria; Reiners, Ansgar

    2016-01-01

    M-dwarf stars are the most numerous stars in the Universe; they span a wide range in mass and are in the focus of ongoing and planned exoplanet surveys. To investigate and understand their physical nature, detailed spectral information and accurate stellar models are needed. We use a new synthetic atmosphere model generation and compare model spectra to observations. To test the model accuracy, we compared the models to four benchmark stars with atmospheric parameters for which independent information from interferometric radius measurements is available. We used $\\chi^2$ -based methods to determine parameters from high-resolution spectroscopic observations. Our synthetic spectra are based on the new PHOENIX grid that uses the ACES description for the equation of state. This is a model generation expected to be especially suitable for the low-temperature atmospheres. We identified suitable spectral tracers of atmospheric parameters and determined the uncertainties in $T_{\\rm eff}$, $\\log{g}$, and [Fe/H] resul...

  2. Generalized function of the parameters in the storage-discharge relation for low flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujimura, Kazumasa; Iseri, Yoshihiko; Kanae, Shinjiro; Murakami, Masahiro

    2015-04-01

    The accurate estimation of low flows can contribute to better water resource management and more reliable evaluation of the impact of climate change on water resources. For the case of low flows, the nonlinearity of the discharge Q associated with the storage S was originally proposed by Horton (1936) as the power function Q=KSN, where K is a constant and N is the exponent. Although the Q(S) relations for groundwater runoff from unconfined aquifers have been treated as second-order polynomial functions on the basis of the hydraulic investigation by Ding (1966), the general power function Q = KNSN was introduced into the unit hydrograph model for overland flow and the parameters K and N were calibrated by Ding (2011). According to recent studies, the value of the exponent N is varied between 1 and 3 or higher by calibration (e.g., Wittenberg, 1994 and Ding, 2011); however, it is currently unclear whether the optimum value of N has the rule. Fujimura et al. (2014) applied the general power function Q = KNSN for low flows in mountainous basins over a period spanning more than 10 years using hourly data, and carried out sensitivity analysis using a hydrological model for 19 900 sets of the two parameters K and N, in which the exponent N was varied between 1 and 100 in steps of 0.5. The results showed that the optimum relation between N and K could be characterized by the exponential function K=1/(α Nβ), where α and β are constants. Moreover, the lowest error in the sensitivity analysis was obtained by using an exponent N of 100. The aim of this study is to extend the previous study of Fujimura et al. to clarify the properties of the K(N) relations. A sensitivity analysis is performed efficiently using a hydrological model, in which the exponent N is varied between 1 and 100 000 along the neighborhood of the exponential function K=1/(α Nβ). The hourly hydrological model used in this study comprises the Diskin-Nazimov infiltration model, groundwater recharge and

  3. Modeling the outflow of liquid with initial supercritical parameters using the relaxation model for condensation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lezhnin Sergey

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The two-temperature model of the outflow from a vessel with initial supercritical parameters of medium has been realized. The model uses thermodynamic non-equilibrium relaxation approach to describe phase transitions. Based on a new asymptotic model for computing the relaxation time, the outflow of water with supercritical initial pressure and super- and subcritical temperatures has been calculated.

  4. Coupled 1D-2D hydrodynamic inundation model for sewer overflow: Influence of modeling parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adeniyi Ganiyu Adeogun

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents outcome of our investigation on the influence of modeling parameters on 1D-2D hydrodynamic inundation model for sewer overflow, developed through coupling of an existing 1D sewer network model (SWMM and 2D inundation model (BREZO. The 1D-2D hydrodynamic model was developed for the purpose of examining flood incidence due to surcharged water on overland surface. The investigation was carried out by performing sensitivity analysis on the developed model. For the sensitivity analysis, modeling parameters, such as mesh resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM resolution and roughness were considered. The outcome of the study shows the model is sensitive to changes in these parameters. The performance of the model is significantly influenced, by the Manning's friction value, the DEM resolution and the area of the triangular mesh. Also, changes in the aforementioned modeling parameters influence the Flood characteristics, such as the inundation extent, the flow depth and the velocity across the model domain.

  5. Gamma-ray Bursts and Other Observations: Constraints on Cosmological Parameters and Dark Energy Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, J. W.; Wang, F. Y.

    2011-11-01

    We use the newly released Union2 SNe Ia dataset to constrain cosmographic parameters, namely deceleration, jerk and snap parameters (q_0,j_0 and s_0), then calibrate five luminosity relations of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) at redshift z≤1.4. Supposing that the GRB luminosity relations do not evolve with redshift, we obtain the distance moduli of 66 high-redshift GRBs. At last, we combine the observation datasets including Cosmic Microwave Background, Baryon Acoustic Oscillations and 116 GRBs to constrain some widely-discussed dark energy models. We find the ΛCDM model is the best according to the Bayesian Information Criterion, and the JBP model is the best according to the Akaike Information Criterion.

  6. Gamma-Ray Bursts and Other Observations: Constraints on Cosmographic Parameters and Dark Energy Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jian-wei; Wang, Fa-yin

    2012-04-01

    We use the newly released Union2 SNe Ia dataset to constrain cosmographic parameters, namely the deceleration, jerk and snap parameters (q0, j0 and s0), then calibrate the five luminosity relations of Gamma-ray Bursts (GRBs) at redshift z ≤ 1.4. Assuming that the GRB luminosity relations do not evolve with the redshift, we obtain the distance moduli of 66 high-redshift GRBs. At last, we combine the observational datasets including the observations of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB), Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) and the 116 GRBs with known redshifts to constrain some widely-discussed dark energy models. We find that the ΛCDM model is the best according to the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), and the JBP model is the best according to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC).

  7. Quantitative Timed-Up-and-Go Parameters in Relation to Cognitive Parameters and Health-Related Quality of Life in Mild-to-Moderate Parkinson's Disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janet M T Van Uem

    Full Text Available The instrumented-Timed-Up-and-Go test (iTUG provides detailed information about the following movement patterns: sit-to-walk (siwa, straight walking, turning and walk-to-sit (wasi. We were interested in the relative contributions of respective iTUG sub-phases to specific clinical deficits most relevant for daily life in Parkinson's disease (PD. More specifically, we investigated which condition-fast speed (FS or convenient speed (CS-differentiates best between mild- to moderate-stage PD patients and controls, which parameters of the iTUG sub-phases are significantly different between PD patients and controls, and how the iTUG parameters associate with cognitive parameters (with particular focus on cognitive flexibility and working memory and Health-Related-Quality of Life (HRQoL.Twenty-eight PD participants (65.1 ± 7.1 years, H&Y stage 1-3, medication OFF state and 20 controls (66.1 ± 7.5 years performed an iTUG (DynaPort®, McRoberts BV, The Netherlands under CS and FS conditions. The PD Questionnaire 39 (PDQ-39 was employed to assess HRQoL. General cognitive and executive functions were assessed using the Montreal Cognitive Assessment and the Trail Making Test.The total iTUG duration and sub-phases durations under FS condition differentiated PD patients slightly better from controls, compared to the CS condition. The following sub-phases were responsible for the observed longer total duration PD patients needed to perform the iTUG: siwa, turn and wasi. None of the iTUG parameters correlated relevantly with general cognitive function. Turning duration and wasi maximum flexion velocity correlated strongest with executive function. Walking back duration correlated strongest with HRQoL.This study confirms that mild- to moderate-stage PD patients need more time to perform the iTUG than controls, and adds the following aspects to current literature: FS may be more powerful than CS to delineate subtle movement deficits in mild- to moderate-stage PD

  8. Quantitative Timed-Up-and-Go Parameters in Relation to Cognitive Parameters and Health-Related Quality of Life in Mild-to-Moderate Parkinson's Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Uem, Janet M T; Walgaard, Stefan; Ainsworth, Erik; Hasmann, Sandra E; Heger, Tanja; Nussbaum, Susanne; Hobert, Markus A; Micó-Amigo, Encarnación M; Van Lummel, Rob C; Berg, Daniela; Maetzler, Walter

    2016-01-01

    The instrumented-Timed-Up-and-Go test (iTUG) provides detailed information about the following movement patterns: sit-to-walk (siwa), straight walking, turning and walk-to-sit (wasi). We were interested in the relative contributions of respective iTUG sub-phases to specific clinical deficits most relevant for daily life in Parkinson's disease (PD). More specifically, we investigated which condition-fast speed (FS) or convenient speed (CS)-differentiates best between mild- to moderate-stage PD patients and controls, which parameters of the iTUG sub-phases are significantly different between PD patients and controls, and how the iTUG parameters associate with cognitive parameters (with particular focus on cognitive flexibility and working memory) and Health-Related-Quality of Life (HRQoL). Twenty-eight PD participants (65.1 ± 7.1 years, H&Y stage 1-3, medication OFF state) and 20 controls (66.1 ± 7.5 years) performed an iTUG (DynaPort®, McRoberts BV, The Netherlands) under CS and FS conditions. The PD Questionnaire 39 (PDQ-39) was employed to assess HRQoL. General cognitive and executive functions were assessed using the Montreal Cognitive Assessment and the Trail Making Test. The total iTUG duration and sub-phases durations under FS condition differentiated PD patients slightly better from controls, compared to the CS condition. The following sub-phases were responsible for the observed longer total duration PD patients needed to perform the iTUG: siwa, turn and wasi. None of the iTUG parameters correlated relevantly with general cognitive function. Turning duration and wasi maximum flexion velocity correlated strongest with executive function. Walking back duration correlated strongest with HRQoL. This study confirms that mild- to moderate-stage PD patients need more time to perform the iTUG than controls, and adds the following aspects to current literature: FS may be more powerful than CS to delineate subtle movement deficits in mild- to moderate-stage PD

  9. Animal Model of Asthma, Various Methods and Measured Parameters: A Methodological Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kianmeher, Majid; Ghorani, Vahideh; Boskabady, Mohammad Hosein

    2016-12-01

    Asthma is a chronic inflammatory disease of the airway with extensive airway remodeling. The ethical issues associated with the studies in asthmatic patients, required development of animal model of asthma. Animal models of asthma can provide valuable information on several features of asthma pathogenesis and treatment. Although these models cannot carry out all clinical features, they are valuable to understand mechanisms of the disease and curative access. Related articles were searched in different databases from September 1994 to April 2016 using; animal model of asthma, animal sensitization, allergen-induced asthma in animals terms. Although there are several reviews on this topic, in the present article, induction of animal model of asthma in different animals, various methods used for this purpose, measured parameters and research purposes were reviewed, which will help investigators to use the appropriate animal, methods, and evaluating parameters depending on their study design. In this study various method used for induction of animal model of asthma in different animals and measured parameters were described, which will help investigators to use the appropriate animal, method and evaluating parameters depending on their study design.

  10. MULTI-OBJECTIVE OPTIMIZATION OF EDM PARAMETERS USING GREY RELATION ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. RADHIKA

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper involves the multi-objective optimization of process parameters of AlSi10Mg/9 wt% alumina/3 wt% graphite in Electrical Discharge Machining for obtaining minimum surface roughness, minimum tool wear rate and maximum material removal rate. The important machining parameters were selected as peak current, flushing pressure and pulse-on time. Experiments were conducted by selecting different operating levels for the three parameters according to Taguchi’s Design of Experiments. The multi-objective optimization was performed using Grey Relation Analysis to determine the optimal solution. The Grey Relation Grade values were then analysed using Analysis of Variance to determine the most contributing input parameter. On analysis it was found that peak current, flushing pressure and pulse-on time had an influence of 61.36%, 17.81% and 8.09% respectively on the optimal solution.

  11. Sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation for distributed hydrological modeling: potential of variational methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Castaings

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Variational methods are widely used for the analysis and control of computationally intensive spatially distributed systems. In particular, the adjoint state method enables a very efficient calculation of the derivatives of an objective function (response function to be analysed or cost function to be optimised with respect to model inputs.

    In this contribution, it is shown that the potential of variational methods for distributed catchment scale hydrology should be considered. A distributed flash flood model, coupling kinematic wave overland flow and Green Ampt infiltration, is applied to a small catchment of the Thoré basin and used as a relatively simple (synthetic observations but didactic application case.

    It is shown that forward and adjoint sensitivity analysis provide a local but extensive insight on the relation between the assigned model parameters and the simulated hydrological response. Spatially distributed parameter sensitivities can be obtained for a very modest calculation effort (~6 times the computing time of a single model run and the singular value decomposition (SVD of the Jacobian matrix provides an interesting perspective for the analysis of the rainfall-runoff relation.

    For the estimation of model parameters, adjoint-based derivatives were found exceedingly efficient in driving a bound-constrained quasi-Newton algorithm. The reference parameter set is retrieved independently from the optimization initial condition when the very common dimension reduction strategy (i.e. scalar multipliers is adopted.

    Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis results suggest that most of the variability in this high-dimensional parameter space can be captured with a few orthogonal directions. A parametrization based on the SVD leading singular vectors was found very promising but should be combined with another regularization strategy in order to prevent overfitting.

  12. Sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation for distributed hydrological modeling: potential of variational methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castaings, W.; Dartus, D.; Le Dimet, F.-X.; Saulnier, G.-M.

    2009-04-01

    Variational methods are widely used for the analysis and control of computationally intensive spatially distributed systems. In particular, the adjoint state method enables a very efficient calculation of the derivatives of an objective function (response function to be analysed or cost function to be optimised) with respect to model inputs. In this contribution, it is shown that the potential of variational methods for distributed catchment scale hydrology should be considered. A distributed flash flood model, coupling kinematic wave overland flow and Green Ampt infiltration, is applied to a small catchment of the Thoré basin and used as a relatively simple (synthetic observations) but didactic application case. It is shown that forward and adjoint sensitivity analysis provide a local but extensive insight on the relation between the assigned model parameters and the simulated hydrological response. Spatially distributed parameter sensitivities can be obtained for a very modest calculation effort (~6 times the computing time of a single model run) and the singular value decomposition (SVD) of the Jacobian matrix provides an interesting perspective for the analysis of the rainfall-runoff relation. For the estimation of model parameters, adjoint-based derivatives were found exceedingly efficient in driving a bound-constrained quasi-Newton algorithm. The reference parameter set is retrieved independently from the optimization initial condition when the very common dimension reduction strategy (i.e. scalar multipliers) is adopted. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis results suggest that most of the variability in this high-dimensional parameter space can be captured with a few orthogonal directions. A parametrization based on the SVD leading singular vectors was found very promising but should be combined with another regularization strategy in order to prevent overfitting.

  13. Quantum correlation with sandwiched relative entropies: Advantageous as order parameter in quantum phase transitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misra, Avijit; Biswas, Anindya; Pati, Arun K; Sen De, Aditi; Sen, Ujjwal

    2015-05-01

    Quantum discord is a measure of quantum correlations beyond the entanglement-separability paradigm. It is conceptualized by using the von Neumann entropy as a measure of disorder. We introduce a class of quantum correlation measures as differences between total and classical correlations, in a shared quantum state, in terms of the sandwiched relative Rényi and Tsallis entropies. We compare our results with those obtained by using the traditional relative entropies. We find that the measures satisfy all the plausible axioms for quantum correlations. We evaluate the measures for shared pure as well as paradigmatic classes of mixed states. We show that the measures can faithfully detect the quantum critical point in the transverse quantum Ising model and find that they can be used to remove an unquieting feature of nearest-neighbor quantum discord in this respect. Furthermore, the measures provide better finite-size scaling exponents of the quantum critical point than the ones for other known order parameters, including entanglement and information-theoretic measures of quantum correlations.

  14. Optimization of Process Parameters on MRR and Overcut in Electrochemical Micro Machining on Metal Matrix Composites Using Grey Relational Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.Dharmalingam

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the influence of the process parameters like machining voltage, electrolyte concentration, frequency on the over cut and Material Removal Rate (MRR through taguchi methodology and grey relational analysis. This paper discusses a methodology for the optimization of the machining parameters on drilling of Al - 6% Gr Metal Matrix composites using Electrochemical Micro Machining (EMM. Based on the analysis, optimum levels of parameters were determined and the same to validate through the confirmation test. Experimental results are in close agreement with the developed model. The confirmation results reveal that, there is considerable improvement in Material Removal Rate, Overcut, Grey relational grade are improved by 08.33 %, 41.17 % and 81.77 % respectively. It is observed that the machining performance can be effectively improved with respect to initial parametric setting.

  15. FEM numerical model study of electrosurgical dispersive electrode design parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearce, John A

    2015-01-01

    Electrosurgical dispersive electrodes must safely carry the surgical current in monopolar procedures, such as those used in cutting, coagulation and radio frequency ablation (RFA). Of these, RFA represents the most stringent design constraint since ablation currents are often more than 1 to 2 Arms (continuous) for several minutes depending on the size of the lesion desired and local heat transfer conditions at the applicator electrode. This stands in contrast to standard surgical activations, which are intermittent, and usually less than 1 Arms, but for several seconds at a time. Dispersive electrode temperature rise is also critically determined by the sub-surface skin anatomy, thicknesses of the subcutaneous and supra-muscular fat, etc. Currently, we lack fundamental engineering design criteria that provide an estimating framework for preliminary designs of these electrodes. The lack of a fundamental design framework means that a large number of experiments must be conducted in order to establish a reasonable design. Previously, an attempt to correlate maximum temperatures in experimental work with the average current density-time product failed to yield a good match. This paper develops and applies a new measure of an electrode stress parameter that correlates well with both the previous experimental data and with numerical models of other electrode shapes. The finite element method (FEM) model work was calibrated against experimental RF lesions in porcine skin to establish the fundamental principle underlying dispersive electrode performance. The results can be used in preliminary electrode design calculations, experiment series design and performance evaluation.

  16. Modeling and parameter estimation for hydraulic system of excavator's arm

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HE Qing-hua; HAO Peng; ZHANG Da-qing

    2008-01-01

    A retrofitted electro-bydraulic proportional system for hydraulic excavator was introduced firstly. According to the principle and characteristic of load independent flow distribution(LUDV)system, taking boom hydraulic system as an example and ignoring the leakage of hydraulic cylinder and the mass of oil in it,a force equilibrium equation and a continuous equation of hydraulic cylinder were set up.Based On the flow equation of electro-hydraulic proportional valve, the pressure passing through the valve and the difference of pressure were tested and analyzed.The results show that the difference of pressure does not change with load, and it approximates to 2.0 MPa. And then, assume the flow across the valve is directly proportional to spool displacement andis not influenced by load, a simplified model of electro-hydraulic system was put forward. At the same time, by analyzing the structure and load-bearing of boom instrument, and combining moment equivalent equation of manipulator with rotating law, the estimation methods and equations for such parameters as equivalent mass and bearing force of hydraulic cylinder were set up. Finally, the step response of flow of boom cylinder was tested when the electro-hydraulic proportional valve was controlled by the stepcurrent. Based on the experiment curve, the flow gain coefficient of valve is identified as 2.825×10-4m3/(s·A)and the model is verified.

  17. Estimation of source parameters and scaling relations for moderate size earthquakes in North-West Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Vikas; Kumar, Dinesh; Chopra, Sumer

    2016-10-01

    The scaling relation and self similarity of earthquake process have been investigated by estimating the source parameters of 34 moderate size earthquakes (mb 3.4-5.8) occurred in the NW Himalaya. The spectral analysis of body waves of 217 accelerograms recorded at 48 sites have been carried out using in the present analysis. The Brune's ω-2 model has been adopted for this purpose. The average ratio of the P-wave corner frequency, fc(P), to the S-wave corner frequency, fc(S), has been found to be 1.39 with fc(P) > fc(S) for 90% of the events analyzed here. This implies the shift in the corner frequency in agreement with many other similar studies done for different regions. The static stress drop values for all the events analyzed here lie in the range 10-100 bars average stress drop value of the order of 43 ± 19 bars for the region. This suggests the likely estimate of the dynamic stress drop, which is 2-3 times the static stress drop, is in the range of about 80-120 bars. This suggests the relatively high seismic hazard in the NW Himalaya as high frequency strong ground motions are governed by the stress drop. The estimated values of stress drop do not show significant variation with seismic moment for the range 5 × 1014-2 × 1017 N m. This observation along with the cube root scaling of corner frequencies suggests the self similarity of the moderate size earthquakes in the region. The scaling relation between seismic moment and corner frequency Mo fc3 = 3.47 ×1016Nm /s3 estimated in the present study can be utilized to estimate the source dimension given the seismic moment of the earthquake for the hazard assessment. The present study puts the constrains on the important parameters stress drop and source dimension required for the synthesis of strong ground motion from the future expected earthquakes in the region. Therefore, the present study is useful for the seismic hazard and risk related studies for NW Himalaya.

  18. Input Parameters for Models of Energetic Electrons Fluxes at the Geostationary Orbit

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    V. I. Degtyarev; G.V. Popov; B. S. Xue; S.E. Chudnenko

    2005-01-01

    The results of cross-correlation analysis between electrons fluxes (with energies of > 0.6 MeV,> 2.0MeV and > 4.0MeV), geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters are shown in the paper. It is determined that the electron fluxes are controlled not only by the geomagnetic indices, but also by the solar wind parameters, and the solar wind velocity demonstrates the best relation with the electron fluxes.Numerical value of the relation efficiency of external parameters with the highly energetic electrons fluxes shows a periodicity. It is presented here the preliminary results of daily averaged electrons fluxes forecast for a day ahead on the basis of the model of neuron networks.

  19. Effect of calibration data length on performance and optimal parameters of hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuan-Zhe LI

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In order to assess the effects of calibration data length on the performance and optimal parameter values of hydrological model in ungauged or data limited catchments (actually, data are non-continuous and fragmental in some catchments, we choose to use non-continuous calibration periods to have more independent streamflow data for SIMHYD model calibration. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE and percentage water balance error (WBE are used as performance measures. The Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO method is used to calibrate the rainfall-runoff models. Different length of data range from 1 year to 10 years randomly sampled used for study on impact of calibration data length. 55 relatively unimpaired catchments all over Australia with daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET, and streamflow data are tested to obtain more general conclusions. The results show that, longer calibration data does not necessarily result in better model performance. In general, 8 years data are sufficient to obtain steady estimates of model performance and parameters for SIMHYD model. It is also show that most humid catchments require fewer calibration data to get good performance and stable parameter values. The model performs better in humid and semi-humid catchments than arid catchments. Our results may have useful and interesting implications in the efficiency of limited observation data used for hydrological model calibration in different climatic catchments.

  20. Constraining model parameters on remotely sensed evaporation: justification for distribution in ungauged basins?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. C. Winsemius

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available In this study, land surface related parameter distributions of a conceptual semi-distributed hydrological model are estimated by employing time series of satellite-based evaporation estimates during the dry season as explanatory information. A key application for this approach is to identify part of the parameter distribution space in ungauged river basins without the need for ground data. The information, contained in the evaporation estimates implicitly imposes compliance of the model with the largest water balance term, evaporation, and a spatially and temporally realistic depletion of soil moisture within the dry season. Furthermore, the model results can provide a better understanding of the information density of remotely sensed evaporation.

    The approach has been applied to the ungauged Luangwa river basin (150 000 (km2 in Zambia. Model units were delineated on the basis of similar land cover. For each model unit, model parameters for which evaporation is sensitive, have been conditioned on the evaporation estimates by means of Monte-Carlo sampling. The results show that behavioural parameter sets for model units with similar land cover, are indeed clustered. The clustering reveals hydrologically meaningful signatures in the parameter response surface: wetland-dominated areas (also called dambos show optimal parameter ranges that reflect a relatively small unsaturated zone (due to the shallow rooting depth of the vegetation and moisture stressed vegetation. The forested areas and evergreen highlands show parameter ranges that indicate a much deeper root zone and drought resistance.

    Unrealistic parameter ranges, found for instance in the high optimal field capacity values in the highlands may indicate model structural deficiencies. We believe that in these areas, groundwater uptake into the root zone and lateral movement of groundwater should be included in the model structure. Furthermore, a less distinct

  1. Relative measurement error analysis in the process of the Nakagami-m fading parameter estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milentijević Vladeta

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available An approach to the relative measurement error analysis in the process of the Nakagami-m fading signal moments estimation will be presented in this paper. Relative error expressions will be also derived for the cases when MRC (Maximal Ratio Combining diversity technique is performed at the receiver. Capitalizing on them, results will be graphically presented and discussed to show the influence of various parameters, such as diversity order and fading severity on the relative measurement error bounds.

  2. Relative measurement error analysis in the process of the Nakagami-m fading parameter estimation

    OpenAIRE

    Milentijević Vladeta; Denić Dragan; Stefanović Mihajlo; Panić Stefan R.; Radenković Dragan

    2011-01-01

    An approach to the relative measurement error analysis in the process of the Nakagami-m fading signal moments estimation will be presented in this paper. Relative error expressions will be also derived for the cases when MRC (Maximal Ratio Combining) diversity technique is performed at the receiver. Capitalizing on them, results will be graphically presented and discussed to show the influence of various parameters, such as diversity order and fading severity on the relative measurement...

  3. Measuring the basic parameters of neutron stars using model atmospheres

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suleimanov, V.F. [Universitaet Tuebingen, Institut fuer Astronomie und Astrophysik, Kepler Center for Astro and Particle Physics, Tuebingen (Germany); Kazan Federal University, Kazan (Russian Federation); Poutanen, J. [University of Turku, Tuorla Observatory, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Piikkioe (Finland); KTH Royal Institute of Technology and Stockholm University, Nordita, Stockholm (Sweden); Klochkov, D.; Werner, K. [Universitaet Tuebingen, Institut fuer Astronomie und Astrophysik, Kepler Center for Astro and Particle Physics, Tuebingen (Germany)

    2016-02-15

    Model spectra of neutron star atmospheres are nowadays widely used to fit the observed thermal X-ray spectra of neutron stars. This fitting is the key element in the method of the neutron star radius determination. Here, we present the basic assumptions used for the neutron star atmosphere modeling as well as the main qualitative features of the stellar atmospheres leading to the deviations of the emergent model spectrum from blackbody. We describe the properties of two of our model atmosphere grids: i) pure carbon atmospheres for relatively cool neutron stars (1-4MK) and ii) hot atmospheres with Compton scattering taken into account. The results obtained by applying these grids to model the X-ray spectra of the central compact object in supernova remnant HESS 1731-347, and two X-ray bursting neutron stars in low-mass X-ray binaries, 4U 1724-307 and 4U 1608-52, are presented. Possible systematic uncertainties associated with the obtained neutron star radii are discussed. (orig.)

  4. Measuring the basic parameters of neutron stars using model atmospheres

    CERN Document Server

    Suleimanov, V F; Klochkov, D; Werner, K

    2015-01-01

    Model spectra of neutron star atmospheres are nowadays widely used to fit the observed thermal X-ray spectra of neutron stars. This fitting is the key element in the method of the neutronstar radius determination. Here, we present the basic assumptions used for the neutron star atmosphere modeling as well as the main qualitative features of the stellar atmospheres leading to the deviations of the emergent model spectrum from blackbody. We describe the properties of two of our model atmosphere grids: (i) pure carbon atmospheres for relatively cool neutron stars (1--4 MK) and (ii) hot atmospheres with Compton scattering taken into account. The results obtained by applying these grids to model the X-ray spectra of the central compact object in supernova remnant HESS 1731-347, and two X-ray bursting neutron stars in low-mass X-ray binaries, 4U 1724-307 and 4U 1608-52, are presented. Possible systematic uncertainties associated with the obtained neutron star radii are discussed.

  5. Algorithm for Modeling Wire Cut Electrical Discharge Machine Parameters using Artificial Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.Sankara Narayanan

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Unconventional machining process finds lot of application in aerospace and precision industries. It is preferred over other conventional methods because of the advent of composite and high strength to weight ratio materials, complex parts and also because of its high accuracy and precision. Usually in unconventional machine tools, trial and error method is used to fix the values of process parameters which increase the production time and material wastage. A mathematical model functionally relating process parameters and operating parameters of a wire cut electric discharge machine (WEDM is developed incorporating Artificial neural network (ANN and the work piece material is SKD11 tool steel. This is accomplished by training a feed forward neural network with back propagation learning Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. The required data used for training and testing the ANN are obtained by conducting trial runs in wire cut electric discharge machine in a small scale industry from South India. The programs for training and testing the neural network are developed, using matlab 7.0.1 package. In this work, we have considered the parameters such as thickness, time and wear as the input values and from that the values of the process parameters are related and a algorithm is arrived. Hence, the proposed algorithm reduces the time taken by trial runs to set the input process parameters of WEDM and thus reduces the production time along with reduction in material wastage. Thus the cost of machining processes is reduced and thereby increases the overall productivity.

  6. Relative importance of secondary settling tank models in WWTP simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramin, Elham; Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Sin, Gürkan

    2012-01-01

    Results obtained in a study using the Benchmark Simulation Model No. 1 (BSM1) show that a one-dimensional secondary settling tank (1-D SST) model structure and its parameters are among the most significant sources of uncertainty in wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) simulations [Ramin et al., 2011......]. The sensitivity results consistently indicate that the prediction of sludge production is most sensitive to the variation of the settling parameters. In the present study, we use the Benchmark Simulation Model No. 2 (BSM2), a plant-wide benchmark, that combines the Activated Sludge Model No. 1 (ASM1......) with the Anaerobic Digestion Model No. 1 (ADM1). We use BSM2 as a vehicle to compare two different 1-D SST models, and to assess the relative significance of their performance on WWTP simulation model outputs. The two 1-D SST models assessed include the firstorder model by Takács et al. [1991] and the second...

  7. Assigning probability distributions to input parameters of performance assessment models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mishra, Srikanta [INTERA Inc., Austin, TX (United States)

    2002-02-01

    This study presents an overview of various approaches for assigning probability distributions to input parameters and/or future states of performance assessment models. Specifically,three broad approaches are discussed for developing input distributions: (a) fitting continuous distributions to data, (b) subjective assessment of probabilities, and (c) Bayesian updating of prior knowledge based on new information. The report begins with a summary of the nature of data and distributions, followed by a discussion of several common theoretical parametric models for characterizing distributions. Next, various techniques are presented for fitting continuous distributions to data. These include probability plotting, method of moments, maximum likelihood estimation and nonlinear least squares analysis. The techniques are demonstrated using data from a recent performance assessment study for the Yucca Mountain project. Goodness of fit techniques are also discussed, followed by an overview of how distribution fitting is accomplished in commercial software packages. The issue of subjective assessment of probabilities is dealt with in terms of the maximum entropy distribution selection approach, as well as some common rules for codifying informal expert judgment. Formal expert elicitation protocols are discussed next, and are based primarily on the guidance provided by the US NRC. The Bayesian framework for updating prior distributions (beliefs) when new information becomes available is discussed. A simple numerical approach is presented for facilitating practical applications of the Bayes theorem. Finally, a systematic framework for assigning distributions is presented: (a) for the situation where enough data are available to define an empirical CDF or fit a parametric model to the data, and (b) to deal with the situation where only a limited amount of information is available.

  8. Parameter estimation for whole-body kinetic model of FDG metabolism

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CUI Yunfeng; BAI Jing; CHEN Yingmao; TIAN Jiahe

    2006-01-01

    Based on the radioactive tracer [18F]2-fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose (FDG), positron emission tomography (PET), and compartment model, the tracer kinetic study has become an important method to investigate the glucose metabolic kinetics in human body.In this work, the kinetic parameters of three-compartment and four-parameter model for the FDG metabolism in the tissues of myocardium, lung, liver, stomach, spleen, pancreas, and marrow were estimated through some dynamic FDG-PET experiments. Together with published brain and skeletal muscle parameters, a relatively complete whole-body model was presented. In the liver model, the dual blood supply from the hepatic artery and the portal vein to the liver was considered for parameter estimation, and the more accurate results were obtained using the dual-input rather than the single arterial-input. The established whole-body model provides the functional information of FDG metabolism in human body. It can be used to further investigate the glucose metabolism, and also be used for the simulation and visualization of FDG metabolic process in human body.

  9. mr: A C++ library for the matching and running of the Standard Model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kniehl, Bernd A.; Pikelner, Andrey F.; Veretin, Oleg L.

    2016-09-01

    We present the C++ program library mr that allows us to reliably calculate the values of the running parameters in the Standard Model at high energy scales. The initial conditions are obtained by relating the running parameters in the MS bar renormalization scheme to observables at lower energies with full two-loop precision. The evolution is then performed in accordance with the renormalization group equations with full three-loop precision. Pure QCD corrections to the matching and running are included through four loops. We also provide a Mathematica interface for this program library.

  10. mr: a C++ library for the matching and running of the Standard Model parameters

    CERN Document Server

    Kniehl, Bernd A; Veretin, Oleg L

    2016-01-01

    We present the C++ program library mr that allows us to reliably calculate the values of the running parameters in the Standard Model at high energy scales. The initial conditions are obtained by relating the running parameters in the $\\overline{\\mathrm{MS}}$ renormalization scheme to observables at lower energies with full two-loop precision. The evolution is then performed in accordance with the renormalization group equations with full three-loop precision. Pure QCD corrections to the matching and running are included through four loops. We also provide a Mathematica interface for this program library.

  11. QSAR modeling of estrogenic alkylphenols using bulk and electronic parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mukherjee S

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Broad range of structurally diverse alkylphenols has been found to be considerably potential estrogenic agents in combating estrogen-linked pathologies, but their mechanism of action in mimicking responses of endogenous hormones is still to be understood. The present work explores pharmacophore signals of some varied alkylphenols and predicts estrogenic activities through generated linear relations implementing theoretical molecular modeling techniques. The binding affinity to estrogen receptor of alkylphenols has been modeled investigating large data set of whole molecular and atomic descriptors. Univariate and multivariate relationships were estimated using correlation analysis and statistical significance of the generated relations assessed. The predictive ability of the generated models was further verified using ′Leave-One-Out′ cross validation. The relationships with molecular properties could be developed with a maximum correlation exceeding 94%, with explained variance as high as 87% and cross-validated variances> 0.8. It was inferred that increased molecular bulk, enhanced molecular ionization potential, presence of electron donating groups in para position and branched chain terminal atoms might have influence on binding affinity to the receptor.

  12. Schelling's Segregation Model: Parameters, scaling, and aggregation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abhinav Singh

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Thomas Schelling proposed a simple spatial model to illustrate how, even with relatively mild assumptions on each individual's nearest neighbor preferences, an integrated city would likely unravel to a segregated city, even if all individuals prefer integration. This agent based lattice model has become quite influential amongst social scientists, demographers, and economists. Aggregation relates to individuals coming together to form groups and Schelling equated global aggregation with segregation. Many authors assumed that the segregation which Schelling observed in simulations on very small cities persists for larger, realistic size cities. We describe how different measures could be used to quantify the segregation and unlock its dependence on city size, disparate neighbor comfortability threshold, and population density. We identify distinct scales of global aggregation, and show that the striking global aggregation Schelling observed is strictly a small city phenomenon. We also discover several scaling laws for the aggregation measures. Along the way we prove that as the Schelling model evolves, the total perimeter of the interface between the different agents decreases, which provides a useful analytical tool to study the evolution.

  13. Anisotropic Generalized Ghost Pilgrim Dark Energy Model in General Relativity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santhi, M. Vijaya; Rao, V. U. M.; Aditya, Y.

    2017-02-01

    A spatially homogeneous and anisotropic locally rotationally symmetric (LRS) Bianchi type- I Universe filled with matter and generalized ghost pilgrim dark energy (GGPDE) has been studied in general theory of relativity. To obtain determinate solution of the field equations we have used scalar expansion proportional to the shear scalar which leads to a relation between the metric potentials. Some well-known cosmological parameters (equation of state (EoS) parameter ( ω Λ), deceleration parameter ( q) and squared speed of sound {vs2}) and planes (ω _{Λ }-dot {ω }_{Λ } and statefinder) are constructed for obtained model. The discussion and significance of these parameters is totally done through pilgrim dark energy parameter ( β) and cosmic time ( t).

  14. Modelling pesticide leaching under climate change: parameter vs. climate input uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Steffens

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The assessment of climate change impacts on the risk for pesticide leaching needs careful consideration of different sources of uncertainty. We investigated the uncertainty related to climate scenario input and its importance relative to parameter uncertainty of the pesticide leaching model. The pesticide fate model MACRO was calibrated against a comprehensive one-year field data set for a well-structured clay soil in south-west Sweden. We obtained an ensemble of 56 acceptable parameter sets that represented the parameter uncertainty. Nine different climate model projections of the regional climate model RCA3 were available as driven by different combinations of global climate models (GCM, greenhouse gas emission scenarios and initial states of the GCM. The future time series of weather data used to drive the MACRO-model were generated by scaling a reference climate data set (1970–1999 for an important agricultural production area in south-west Sweden based on monthly change factors for 2070–2099. 30 yr simulations were performed for different combinations of pesticide properties and application seasons. Our analysis showed that both the magnitude and the direction of predicted change in pesticide leaching from present to future depended strongly on the particular climate scenario. The effect of parameter uncertainty was of major importance for simulating absolute pesticide losses, whereas the climate uncertainty was relatively more important for predictions of changes of pesticide losses from present to future. The climate uncertainty should be accounted for by applying an ensemble of different climate scenarios. The aggregated ensemble prediction based on both acceptable parameterizations and different climate scenarios could provide robust probabilistic estimates of future pesticide losses and assessments of changes in pesticide leaching risks.

  15. Modelling pesticide leaching under climate change: parameter vs. climate input uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Steffens

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Assessing climate change impacts on pesticide leaching requires careful consideration of different sources of uncertainty. We investigated the uncertainty related to climate scenario input and its importance relative to parameter uncertainty of the pesticide leaching model. The pesticide fate model MACRO was calibrated against a comprehensive one-year field data set for a well-structured clay soil in south-western Sweden. We obtained an ensemble of 56 acceptable parameter sets that represented the parameter uncertainty. Nine different climate model projections of the regional climate model RCA3 were available as driven by different combinations of global climate models (GCM, greenhouse gas emission scenarios and initial states of the GCM. The future time series of weather data used to drive the MACRO model were generated by scaling a reference climate data set (1970–1999 for an important agricultural production area in south-western Sweden based on monthly change factors for 2070–2099. 30 yr simulations were performed for different combinations of pesticide properties and application seasons. Our analysis showed that both the magnitude and the direction of predicted change in pesticide leaching from present to future depended strongly on the particular climate scenario. The effect of parameter uncertainty was of major importance for simulating absolute pesticide losses, whereas the climate uncertainty was relatively more important for predictions of changes of pesticide losses from present to future. The climate uncertainty should be accounted for by applying an ensemble of different climate scenarios. The aggregated ensemble prediction based on both acceptable parameterizations and different climate scenarios has the potential to provide robust probabilistic estimates of future pesticide losses.

  16. Parameter selection and stochastic model updating using perturbation methods with parameter weighting matrix assignment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abu Husain, Nurulakmar; Haddad Khodaparast, Hamed; Ouyang, Huajiang

    2012-10-01

    Parameterisation in stochastic problems is a major issue in real applications. In addition, complexity of test structures (for example, those assembled through laser spot welds) is another challenge. The objective of this paper is two-fold: (1) stochastic uncertainty in two sets of different structures (i.e., simple flat plates, and more complicated formed structures) is investigated to observe how updating can be adequately performed using the perturbation method, and (2) stochastic uncertainty in a set of welded structures is studied by using two parameter weighting matrix approaches. Different combinations of parameters are explored in the first part; it is found that geometrical features alone cannot converge the predicted outputs to the measured counterparts, hence material properties must be included in the updating process. In the second part, statistical properties of experimental data are considered and updating parameters are treated as random variables. Two weighting approaches are compared; results from one of the approaches are in very good agreement with the experimental data and excellent correlation between the predicted and measured covariances of the outputs is achieved. It is concluded that proper selection of parameters in solving stochastic updating problems is crucial. Furthermore, appropriate weighting must be used in order to obtain excellent convergence between the predicted mean natural frequencies and their measured data.

  17. Thermodynamic scaling of dynamic properties of liquid crystals: verifying the scaling parameters using a molecular model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satoh, Katsuhiko

    2013-08-28

    The thermodynamic scaling of molecular dynamic properties of rotation and thermodynamic parameters in a nematic phase was investigated by a molecular dynamic simulation using the Gay-Berne potential. A master curve for the relaxation time of flip-flop motion was obtained using thermodynamic scaling, and the dynamic property could be solely expressed as a function of TV(γτ) , where T and V are the temperature and volume, respectively. The scaling parameter γτ was in excellent agreement with the thermodynamic parameter Γ, which is the logarithm of the slope of a line plotted for the temperature and volume at constant P2. This line was fairly linear, and as good as the line for p-azoxyanisole or using the highly ordered small cluster model. The equivalence relation between Γ and γ(τ) was compared with results obtained from the highly ordered small cluster model. The possibility of adapting the molecular model for the thermodynamic scaling of other dynamic rotational properties was also explored. The rotational diffusion constant and rotational viscosity coefficients, which were calculated using established theoretical and experimental expressions, were rescaled onto master curves with the same scaling parameters. The simulation illustrates the universal nature of the equivalence relation for liquid crystals.

  18. Recommended direct simulation Monte Carlo collision model parameters for modeling ionized air transport processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swaminathan-Gopalan, Krishnan; Stephani, Kelly A., E-mail: ksteph@illinois.edu [Department of Mechanical Science and Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois 61801 (United States)

    2016-02-15

    A systematic approach for calibrating the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) collision model parameters to achieve consistency in the transport processes is presented. The DSMC collision cross section model parameters are calibrated for high temperature atmospheric conditions by matching the collision integrals from DSMC against ab initio based collision integrals that are currently employed in the Langley Aerothermodynamic Upwind Relaxation Algorithm (LAURA) and Data Parallel Line Relaxation (DPLR) high temperature computational fluid dynamics solvers. The DSMC parameter values are computed for the widely used Variable Hard Sphere (VHS) and the Variable Soft Sphere (VSS) models using the collision-specific pairing approach. The recommended best-fit VHS/VSS parameter values are provided over a temperature range of 1000-20 000 K for a thirteen-species ionized air mixture. Use of the VSS model is necessary to achieve consistency in transport processes of ionized gases. The agreement of the VSS model transport properties with the transport properties as determined by the ab initio collision integral fits was found to be within 6% in the entire temperature range, regardless of the composition of the mixture. The recommended model parameter values can be readily applied to any gas mixture involving binary collisional interactions between the chemical species presented for the specified temperature range.

  19. Recommended direct simulation Monte Carlo collision model parameters for modeling ionized air transport processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swaminathan-Gopalan, Krishnan; Stephani, Kelly A.

    2016-02-01

    A systematic approach for calibrating the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) collision model parameters to achieve consistency in the transport processes is presented. The DSMC collision cross section model parameters are calibrated for high temperature atmospheric conditions by matching the collision integrals from DSMC against ab initio based collision integrals that are currently employed in the Langley Aerothermodynamic Upwind Relaxation Algorithm (LAURA) and Data Parallel Line Relaxation (DPLR) high temperature computational fluid dynamics solvers. The DSMC parameter values are computed for the widely used Variable Hard Sphere (VHS) and the Variable Soft Sphere (VSS) models using the collision-specific pairing approach. The recommended best-fit VHS/VSS parameter values are provided over a temperature range of 1000-20 000 K for a thirteen-species ionized air mixture. Use of the VSS model is necessary to achieve consistency in transport processes of ionized gases. The agreement of the VSS model transport properties with the transport properties as determined by the ab initio collision integral fits was found to be within 6% in the entire temperature range, regardless of the composition of the mixture. The recommended model parameter values can be readily applied to any gas mixture involving binary collisional interactions between the chemical species presented for the specified temperature range.

  20. The improvement of OPC accuracy and stability by the model parameters' analysis and optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, No-Young; Choi, Woon-Hyuk; Lee, Sung-Ho; Kim, Sung-Il; Lee, Sun-Yong

    2007-10-01

    The OPC model is very critical in the sub 45nm device because the Critical Dimension Uniformity (CDU) is so tight to meet the device performance and the process window latitude for the production level. The OPC model is generally composed of an optical model and a resist model. Each of them has physical terms to be calculated without any wafer data and empirical terms to be fitted with real wafer data to make the optical modeling and the resist modeling. Empirical terms are usually related to the OPC accuracy, but are likely to be overestimated with the wafer data and so those terms can deteriorate OPC stability in case of being overestimated by a small cost function. Several physical terms have been used with ideal value in the optical property and even weren't be considered because those parameters didn't give a critical impact on the OPC accuracy, but these parameters become necessary to be applied to the OPC modeling at the low k1 process. Currently, real optic parameter instead of ideal optical parameter like the laser bandwidth, source map, pupil polarization including the phase and intensity difference start to be measured and those real measured value are used for the OPC modeling. These measured values can improve the model accuracy and stability. In the other hand these parameters can make the OPC model to overcorrect the process proximity errors without careful handling. The laser bandwidth, source map, pupil polarization, and focus centering for the optical modeling are analyzed and the sample data weight scheme and resist model terms are investigated, too. The image blurring by actual laser bandwidth in the exposure system is modeled and the modeling result shows that the extraction of the 2D patterns is necessary to get a reasonable result due to the 2D patterns' measurement noise in the SEM. The source map data from the exposure machine shows lots of horizontal and vertical intensity difference and this phenomenon must come from the measurement noise