Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jiun-Yu Wu
2017-09-01
Full Text Available The issue of equality in the between-and within-level structures in Multilevel Confirmatory Factor Analysis (MCFA models has been influential for obtaining unbiased parameter estimates and statistical inferences. A commonly seen condition is the inequality of factor loadings under equal level-varying structures. With mathematical investigation and Monte Carlo simulation, this study compared the robustness of five statistical models including two model-based (a true and a mis-specified models, one design-based, and two maximum models (two models where the full rank of variance-covariance matrix is estimated in between level and within level, respectively in analyzing complex survey measurement data with level-varying factor loadings. The empirical data of 120 3rd graders' (from 40 classrooms perceived Harter competence scale were modeled using MCFA and the parameter estimates were used as true parameters to perform the Monte Carlo simulation study. Results showed maximum models was robust to unequal factor loadings while the design-based and the miss-specified model-based approaches produced conflated results and spurious statistical inferences. We recommend the use of maximum models if researchers have limited information about the pattern of factor loadings and measurement structures. Measurement models are key components of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM; therefore, the findings can be generalized to multilevel SEM and CFA models. Mplus codes are provided for maximum models and other analytical models.
Correlation studies for B-spline modeled F2 Chapman parameters obtained from FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC data
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Limberger
2014-12-01
Full Text Available The determination of ionospheric key quantities such as the maximum electron density of the F2 layer NmF2, the corresponding F2 peak height hmF2 and the F2 scale height HF2 are of high relevance in 4-D ionosphere modeling to provide information on the vertical structure of the electron density (Ne. The Ne distribution with respect to height can, for instance, be modeled by the commonly accepted F2 Chapman layer. An adequate and observation driven description of the vertical Ne variation can be obtained from electron density profiles (EDPs derived by ionospheric radio occultation measurements between GPS and low Earth orbiter (LEO satellites. For these purposes, the six FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC (F3/C satellites provide an excellent opportunity to collect EDPs that cover most of the ionospheric region, in particular the F2 layer. For the contents of this paper, F3/C EDPs have been exploited to determine NmF2, hmF2 and HF2 within a regional modeling approach. As mathematical base functions, endpoint-interpolating polynomial B-splines are considered to model the key parameters with respect to longitude, latitude and time. The description of deterministic processes and the verification of this modeling approach have been published previously in Limberger et al. (2013, whereas this paper should be considered as an extension dealing with related correlation studies, a topic to which less attention has been paid in the literature. Relations between the B-spline series coefficients regarding specific key parameters as well as dependencies between the three F2 Chapman key parameters are in the main focus. Dependencies are interpreted from the post-derived correlation matrices as a result of (1 a simulated scenario without data gaps by taking dense, homogenously distributed profiles into account and (2 two real data scenarios on 1 July 2008 and 1 July 2012 including sparsely, inhomogeneously distributed F3/C EDPs. Moderate correlations between hmF2 and HF2 as
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
N. K. Sethi
2002-06-01
Full Text Available High resolution electron density profiles (Ne measured with the Arecibo (18.4 N, 66.7 W, Incoherent Scatter radar (I. S. are used to obtain the bottomside shape parameters B0, B1 for a solar maximum period (1989–90. Median values of these parameters are compared with those obtained from the IRI-2001 model. It is observed that during summer, the IRI values agree fairly well with the Arecibo values, though the numbers are somewhat larger during the daytime. Discrepancies occur during winter and equinox, when the IRI underestimates B0 for the local times from about 12:00 LT to about 20:00 LT. Furthermore, the IRI model tends to generally overestimate B1 at all local times. At Arecibo, B0 increases by about 50%, and B1 decreases by about 30% from solar minimum to solar maximum.Key words. Ionosphere (equational ionosphere; modeling and forecasting
Tsventoukh, M. M.
2018-05-01
A model has been developed for the explosive electron emission cell pulse of a vacuum discharge cathode spot that describes the ignition and extinction of the explosive pulse. The pulse is initiated due to hydrodynamic tearing of a liquid-metal jet which propagates from the preceding cell crater boundary and draws the ion current from the plasma produced by the preceding explosion. Once the jet neck has been resistively heated to a critical temperature (˜1 eV), the plasma starts expanding and decreasing in density, which corresponds to the extinction phase. Numerical and analytical solutions have been obtained that describe both the time behavior of the pulse plasma parameters and their average values. For the cell plasma, the momentum per transferred charge has been estimated to be some tens of g cm/(s C), which is consistent with the known measurements of ion velocity, ion erosion rate, and specific recoil force. This supports the model of the pressure-gradient-driven plasma acceleration mechanism for the explosive cathode spot cells. The ohmic electric field within the explosive current-carrying plasma has been estimated to be some tens of kV/cm, which is consistent with the known experimental data on cathode potential fall and explosive cell plasma size. This supports the model that assumes the ohmic nature of the cathode potential fall in a vacuum discharge.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, M.
2006-12-15
A lumped-parameter model represents the frequency dependent soil-structure interaction of a massless foundation placed on or embedded into an unbounded soil domain. In this technical report the steps of establishing a lumped-parameter model are presented. Following sections are included in this report: Static and dynamic formulation, Simple lumped-parameter models and Advanced lumped-parameter models. (au)
Targeted estimation of nuisance parameters to obtain valid statistical inference.
van der Laan, Mark J
2014-01-01
In order to obtain concrete results, we focus on estimation of the treatment specific mean, controlling for all measured baseline covariates, based on observing independent and identically distributed copies of a random variable consisting of baseline covariates, a subsequently assigned binary treatment, and a final outcome. The statistical model only assumes possible restrictions on the conditional distribution of treatment, given the covariates, the so-called propensity score. Estimators of the treatment specific mean involve estimation of the propensity score and/or estimation of the conditional mean of the outcome, given the treatment and covariates. In order to make these estimators asymptotically unbiased at any data distribution in the statistical model, it is essential to use data-adaptive estimators of these nuisance parameters such as ensemble learning, and specifically super-learning. Because such estimators involve optimal trade-off of bias and variance w.r.t. the infinite dimensional nuisance parameter itself, they result in a sub-optimal bias/variance trade-off for the resulting real-valued estimator of the estimand. We demonstrate that additional targeting of the estimators of these nuisance parameters guarantees that this bias for the estimand is second order and thereby allows us to prove theorems that establish asymptotic linearity of the estimator of the treatment specific mean under regularity conditions. These insights result in novel targeted minimum loss-based estimators (TMLEs) that use ensemble learning with additional targeted bias reduction to construct estimators of the nuisance parameters. In particular, we construct collaborative TMLEs (C-TMLEs) with known influence curve allowing for statistical inference, even though these C-TMLEs involve variable selection for the propensity score based on a criterion that measures how effective the resulting fit of the propensity score is in removing bias for the estimand. As a particular special
Obtainment of nuclear power plant dynamic parameters by adaptive mesh technique
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Carvalho Miranda, W. de.
1979-01-01
This thesis involves the problem in determination of the parameters of the Mathematical Model of a Nuclear Reactor, including non-linearity which is considered as a bi-linear system. Being a non-linear model, the determination of its parameters cannot be made with the classical techniques as in obtaining its experimental frequency response. In the present work, we examine the possibility of using a model with parameters that adapt according to a algorithm of Newton type minimization, showing that in the case of the single parameter determination, the method is successful. This work was done, using the CSMP (Continuous System Modelling Program) of IBM 1130 of IME. (author)
Photovoltaic module parameters acquisition model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cibira, Gabriel, E-mail: cibira@lm.uniza.sk; Koščová, Marcela, E-mail: mkoscova@lm.uniza.sk
2014-09-01
Highlights: • Photovoltaic five-parameter model is proposed using Matlab{sup ®} and Simulink. • The model acquisits input sparse data matrix from stigmatic measurement. • Computer simulations lead to continuous I–V and P–V characteristics. • Extrapolated I–V and P–V characteristics are in hand. • The model allows us to predict photovoltaics exploitation in different conditions. - Abstract: This paper presents basic procedures for photovoltaic (PV) module parameters acquisition using MATLAB and Simulink modelling. In first step, MATLAB and Simulink theoretical model are set to calculate I–V and P–V characteristics for PV module based on equivalent electrical circuit. Then, limited I–V data string is obtained from examined PV module using standard measurement equipment at standard irradiation and temperature conditions and stated into MATLAB data matrix as a reference model. Next, the theoretical model is optimized to keep-up with the reference model and to learn its basic parameters relations, over sparse data matrix. Finally, PV module parameters are deliverable for acquisition at different realistic irradiation, temperature conditions as well as series resistance. Besides of output power characteristics and efficiency calculation for PV module or system, proposed model validates computing statistical deviation compared to reference model.
Photovoltaic module parameters acquisition model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cibira, Gabriel; Koščová, Marcela
2014-01-01
Highlights: • Photovoltaic five-parameter model is proposed using Matlab ® and Simulink. • The model acquisits input sparse data matrix from stigmatic measurement. • Computer simulations lead to continuous I–V and P–V characteristics. • Extrapolated I–V and P–V characteristics are in hand. • The model allows us to predict photovoltaics exploitation in different conditions. - Abstract: This paper presents basic procedures for photovoltaic (PV) module parameters acquisition using MATLAB and Simulink modelling. In first step, MATLAB and Simulink theoretical model are set to calculate I–V and P–V characteristics for PV module based on equivalent electrical circuit. Then, limited I–V data string is obtained from examined PV module using standard measurement equipment at standard irradiation and temperature conditions and stated into MATLAB data matrix as a reference model. Next, the theoretical model is optimized to keep-up with the reference model and to learn its basic parameters relations, over sparse data matrix. Finally, PV module parameters are deliverable for acquisition at different realistic irradiation, temperature conditions as well as series resistance. Besides of output power characteristics and efficiency calculation for PV module or system, proposed model validates computing statistical deviation compared to reference model
Obtaining TEM images with a uniform deviation parameter
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Eades, Alwyn
2006-01-01
In transmission electron microscopes made during the last quarter of a century, it has been impossible to take images in which the diffraction contrast conditions are uniform across the field of view. This is inconvenient when, for example, imaging dislocations at a relatively low magnification. The problem arises because modern microscopes use immersion lenses in which the sample sits in a high magnetic field. The resulting helical trajectories of the electrons at the sample plane mean that it is not possible to make a beam that is parallel at the sample. Results of a method to overcome this problem are presented. It is shown that a simple modification to the microscope (which, on a computer-controlled microscope, could be implemented in software) can be used to produce images in which the deviation parameter is essentially constant across many microns of image. By a happy accident, this method can be used, not only to correct for the helicity imparted by immersion lenses, but also to correct for buckling of the sample (up to a point)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Campos, Gustavo L.; Campos, Tarcísio P.R.
2017-01-01
This paper brings to light optimized proposal for a circular particle accelerator for proton beam therapy purposes (named as ACPT). The methodology applied is based on computational metaheuristics based on genetic algorithms (GA) were used to obtain optimized parameters of the equipment. Some fundamental concepts in the metaheuristics developed in Matlab® software will be presented. Four parameters were considered for the proposed modeling for the equipment, being: potential difference, magnetic field, length and radius of the resonant cavity. As result, this article showed optimized parameters for two ACPT, one of them used for ocular radiation therapy, as well some parameters that will allow teletherapy, called in order ACPT - 65 and ACPT - 250, obtained through metaheuristics based in GA. (author)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Campos, Gustavo L.; Campos, Tarcísio P.R., E-mail: gustavo.lobato@ifmg.edu.br, E-mail: tprcampos@pq.cnpq.br, E-mail: gustavo.lobato@ifmg.edu.br [Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil). Departamento de Engenharia Nuclear
2017-07-01
This paper brings to light optimized proposal for a circular particle accelerator for proton beam therapy purposes (named as ACPT). The methodology applied is based on computational metaheuristics based on genetic algorithms (GA) were used to obtain optimized parameters of the equipment. Some fundamental concepts in the metaheuristics developed in Matlab® software will be presented. Four parameters were considered for the proposed modeling for the equipment, being: potential difference, magnetic field, length and radius of the resonant cavity. As result, this article showed optimized parameters for two ACPT, one of them used for ocular radiation therapy, as well some parameters that will allow teletherapy, called in order ACPT - 65 and ACPT - 250, obtained through metaheuristics based in GA. (author)
Self-adaptive Green-Ampt infiltration parameters obtained from measured moisture processes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Long Xiang
2016-07-01
Full Text Available The Green-Ampt (G-A infiltration model (i.e., the G-A model is often used to characterize the infiltration process in hydrology. The parameters of the G-A model are critical in applications for the prediction of infiltration and associated rainfall-runoff processes. Previous approaches to determining the G-A parameters have depended on pedotransfer functions (PTFs or estimates from experimental results, usually without providing optimum values. In this study, rainfall simulators with soil moisture measurements were used to generate rainfall in various experimental plots. Observed runoff data and soil moisture dynamic data were jointly used to yield the infiltration processes, and an improved self-adaptive method was used to optimize the G-A parameters for various types of soil under different rainfall conditions. The two G-A parameters, i.e., the effective hydraulic conductivity and the effective capillary drive at the wetting front, were determined simultaneously to describe the relationships between rainfall, runoff, and infiltration processes. Through a designed experiment, the method for determining the G-A parameters was proved to be reliable in reflecting the effects of pedologic background in G-A type infiltration cases and deriving the optimum G-A parameters. Unlike PTF methods, this approach estimates the G-A parameters directly from infiltration curves obtained from rainfall simulation experiments so that it can be used to determine site-specific parameters. This study provides a self-adaptive method of optimizing the G-A parameters through designed field experiments. The parameters derived from field-measured rainfall-infiltration processes are more reliable and applicable to hydrological models.
Influence of corneal parameters in keratoconus on IOP readings obtained with different tonometers.
Firat, Penpe Gul; Orman, Gozde; Doganay, Selim; Demirel, Soner
2013-03-01
Accurate intraocular pressure (IOP) measurement is important but of unsure reliability in patients with keratoconus. Different types and models of tonometers are available. This study investigated the influence of corneal parameters on IOP readings obtained by a Goldmann applanation tonometer, a non-contact tonometer and a dynamic contour tonometer. IOP readings with the Goldmann applanation, non-contact and dynamic contour tonometers were obtained from 52 patients with keratoconus and from 50 normal subjects and their corneal parameters were measured using a Pentacam. The mean IOP measurements in keratoconus obtained with the Goldmann applanation, non-contact and dynamic contour tonometers were statistically significantly different from the mean IOP measurements in the normal subjects (p contact tonometers but not on the dynamic contour tonometer. In the control group, thinnest and central corneal thicknesses had a significant effect on findings with the Goldmann and non-contact tonometers but not on the dynamic contour tonometer. The corneal volume (CV) had no significant effect on the three tonometers in both groups. The corneal parameters affecting the IOP readings of the Goldmann applanation tonometers, non-contact tonometers and the dynamic contour tonometers are not the same. While the Goldmann applanation and non-contact tonometers were significantly affected by the corneal parameters that were measured, the dynamic contour tonometer was not affected by any of these corneal parameters. © 2013 The Authors. Clinical and Experimental Optometry © 2013 Optometrists Association Australia.
Possibilities of paired comparison of receptor binding parameters obtained in a single experiment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mashilova, K.V.; Kiriakov, G.V.; Malin, K.M.; Rozhanets, V.V.
1987-01-01
The authors explore the use of comparing control and experimental groups on the basis of extrapolation parameters obtained from a single pair of experiments. One of the experiments study the parameters of specific binding of 3 H-D-ala-2-enkephelin-5-D-leucine in the striatum of different groups of rats. The analysis was done by the Cornish-Bowden method
PARAMETER ESTIMATION IN BREAD BAKING MODEL
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Hadiyanto Hadiyanto
2012-05-01
Full Text Available Bread product quality is highly dependent to the baking process. A model for the development of product quality, which was obtained by using quantitative and qualitative relationships, was calibrated by experiments at a fixed baking temperature of 200°C alone and in combination with 100 W microwave powers. The model parameters were estimated in a stepwise procedure i.e. first, heat and mass transfer related parameters, then the parameters related to product transformations and finally product quality parameters. There was a fair agreement between the calibrated model results and the experimental data. The results showed that the applied simple qualitative relationships for quality performed above expectation. Furthermore, it was confirmed that the microwave input is most meaningful for the internal product properties and not for the surface properties as crispness and color. The model with adjusted parameters was applied in a quality driven food process design procedure to derive a dynamic operation pattern, which was subsequently tested experimentally to calibrate the model. Despite the limited calibration with fixed operation settings, the model predicted well on the behavior under dynamic convective operation and on combined convective and microwave operation. It was expected that the suitability between model and baking system could be improved further by performing calibration experiments at higher temperature and various microwave power levels. Abstrak PERKIRAAN PARAMETER DALAM MODEL UNTUK PROSES BAKING ROTI. Kualitas produk roti sangat tergantung pada proses baking yang digunakan. Suatu model yang telah dikembangkan dengan metode kualitatif dan kuantitaif telah dikalibrasi dengan percobaan pada temperatur 200oC dan dengan kombinasi dengan mikrowave pada 100 Watt. Parameter-parameter model diestimasi dengan prosedur bertahap yaitu pertama, parameter pada model perpindahan masa dan panas, parameter pada model transformasi, dan
One parameter model potential for noble metals
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Idrees, M.; Khwaja, F.A.; Razmi, M.S.K.
1981-08-01
A phenomenological one parameter model potential which includes s-d hybridization and core-core exchange contributions is proposed for noble metals. A number of interesting properties like liquid metal resistivities, band gaps, thermoelectric powers and ion-ion interaction potentials are calculated for Cu, Ag and Au. The results obtained are in better agreement with experiment than the ones predicted by the other model potentials in the literature. (author)
ENDF-6 File 30: Data covariances obtained from parameter covariances and sensitivities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Muir, D.W.
1989-01-01
File 30 is provided as a means of describing the covariances of tabulated cross sections, multiplicities, and energy-angle distributions that result from propagating the covariances of a set of underlying parameters (for example, the input parameters of a nuclear-model code), using an evaluator-supplied set of parameter covariances and sensitivities. Whenever nuclear data are evaluated primarily through the application of nuclear models, the covariances of the resulting data can be described very adequately, and compactly, by specifying the covariance matrix for the underlying nuclear parameters, along with a set of sensitivity coefficients giving the rate of change of each nuclear datum of interest with respect to each of the model parameters. Although motivated primarily by these applications of nuclear theory, use of File 30 is not restricted to any one particular evaluation methodology. It can be used to describe data covariances of any origin, so long as they can be formally separated into a set of parameters with specified covariances and a set of data sensitivities
Optimizing Methods of Obtaining Stellar Parameters for the H3 Survey
Ivory, KeShawn; Conroy, Charlie; Cargile, Phillip
2018-01-01
The Stellar Halo at High Resolution with Hectochelle Survey (H3) is in the process of observing and collecting stellar parameters for stars in the Milky Way's halo. With a goal of measuring radial velocities for fainter stars, it is crucial that we have optimal methods of obtaining this and other parameters from the data from these stars.The method currently developed is The Payne, named after Cecilia Payne-Gaposchkin, a code that uses neural networks and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to utilize both spectra and photometry to obtain values for stellar parameters. This project was to investigate the benefit of fitting both spectra and spectral energy distributions (SED). Mock spectra using the parameters of the Sun were created and noise was inserted at various signal to noise values. The Payne then fit each mock spectrum with and without a mock SED also generated from solar parameters. The result was that at high signal to noise, the spectrum dominated and the effect of fitting the SED was minimal. But at low signal to noise, the addition of the SED greatly decreased the standard deviation of the data and resulted in more accurate values for temperature and metallicity.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Minguez, E.
1983-01-01
A review of the analytical expressions between α-parameter and reactivity (rho) has been done in this article. Finally, several lineal approximations have been obtained for two important points of values. The analytical expansion has been made using only one family of precursors from delayed neutrons; diffusion equation in one energy groups; neutron flux separability with known spatial function. Numerical results have been obtained using typical data from fast and thermal reactors; considering and homogeneous media of Pu 239 in the first case, and U-235 in the second one. (author)
Determination of milling parameters to obtain mechanosynthesized ZnFe2O4
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jean, Malick; Nachbaur, Virginie
2008-01-01
In this work, the mechanosynthesis of zinc ferrite in WC vials is studied. Millings are performed under air, with a planetary ball-milling, starting from elemental oxides α-Fe 2 O 3 and ZnO. As-milled powders are structurally and magnetically characterized by X-ray diffraction and Moessbauer spectroscopy. Milling parameters as rotational speeds of main disc and vials are particularly discussed in terms of influence on the obtaining of a pure zinc ferrite phase. These parameters have a strong influence on injected power, on radial and tangential components of the impact force. Friction phenomenon, associated with injected power, have been found to be the governing parameters of the end product
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Odović Jadranka V.
2013-01-01
Full Text Available The aim of this study was to compare different calculation methods to determine lipophilicity, expressed as logP value, of seven ACE inhibitors (enalapril, quinapril, fosinopril, lisinopril, cilazapril, ramipril, and benazapril with significantly different structure. Experimentally determined n-octanol/water partition coefficients, logPO/W values, were obtained from relevant literature. The correlations between all collected logP values were studied and the best agreements between calculated logP and experimentally determined logPO/W values, were observed for KOWWINlogP or MilogP values (r = 0.999 or r = 0.974, respectively. The correlations between all collected logP values and chromatographically (reversed-phase thin-layer chromatography obtained hydrophobicity parameters, RM0 and C0, were established. The good correlations (r > 0.90 were obtained in the majority of relationships. The KOWWINlogP was established as the most suitable hydrophobicity parameter of investigated group of ACE inhibitors with r = 0.981 for correlation with RM0 and r = 0.977 for correlation with C0 parameters (water-methanol mobile phase. Using multiple linear regressions, it was established that application of two selected logP, calculated by different mathematical approaches, led to very good correlation due to the benefits of both calculation methods. The good relationships indicate that the computed logP, with careful selection of method calculation, can be useful in ACE inhibitors lipophilicity evaluation, as high-throughput screening technique.
Parameter Estimation of Spacecraft Fuel Slosh Model
Gangadharan, Sathya; Sudermann, James; Marlowe, Andrea; Njengam Charles
2004-01-01
Fuel slosh in the upper stages of a spinning spacecraft during launch has been a long standing concern for the success of a space mission. Energy loss through the movement of the liquid fuel in the fuel tank affects the gyroscopic stability of the spacecraft and leads to nutation (wobble) which can cause devastating control issues. The rate at which nutation develops (defined by Nutation Time Constant (NTC can be tedious to calculate and largely inaccurate if done during the early stages of spacecraft design. Pure analytical means of predicting the influence of onboard liquids have generally failed. A strong need exists to identify and model the conditions of resonance between nutation motion and liquid modes and to understand the general characteristics of the liquid motion that causes the problem in spinning spacecraft. A 3-D computerized model of the fuel slosh that accounts for any resonant modes found in the experimental testing will allow for increased accuracy in the overall modeling process. Development of a more accurate model of the fuel slosh currently lies in a more generalized 3-D computerized model incorporating masses, springs and dampers. Parameters describing the model include the inertia tensor of the fuel, spring constants, and damper coefficients. Refinement and understanding the effects of these parameters allow for a more accurate simulation of fuel slosh. The current research will focus on developing models of different complexity and estimating the model parameters that will ultimately provide a more realistic prediction of Nutation Time Constant obtained through simulation.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chen Zeng
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Knowledge of soil hydraulic parameters for the van Genuchten function is important to characterize soil water movement for watershed management. Accurate and rapid prediction of soil water flow in heterogeneous gravel soil has become a hot topic in recent years. However, it is difficult to precisely estimate hydraulic parameters in a heterogeneous soil with rock fragments. In this study, the HYDRUS-2D numerical model was used to evaluate hydraulic parameters for heterogeneous gravel soil that was irregularly embedded with rock fragments in a grape production base. The centrifugal method (CM, tensiometer method (TM and inverse solution method (ISM were compared for various parameters in the van Genuchten function. The soil core method (SCM, disc infiltration method (DIM and inverse solution method (ISM were also investigated for measuring saturated hydraulic conductivity. Simulation with the DIM approach revealed a problem of overestimating soil water infiltration whereas simulation with the SCM approach revealed a problem of underestimating water movement as compared to actual field observation. The ISM approach produced the best simulation result even though this approach slightly overestimated soil moisture by ignoring the impact of rock fragments. This study provides useful information on the overall evaluation of soil hydraulic parameters attained with different measurement methods for simulating soil water movement and distribution in heterogeneous gravel soil.
Lunar tidal acceleration obtained from satellite-derived ocean tide parameters
Goad, C. C.; Douglas, B. C.
1978-01-01
One hundred sets of mean elements of GEOS-3 computed at 2-day intervals yielded observation equations for the M sub 2 ocean tide from the long periodic variations of the inclination and node of the orbit. The 2nd degree Love number was given the value k sub 2 = 0.30 and the solid tide phase angle was taken to be zero. Combining obtained equations with results for the satellite 1967-92A gives the M sub 2 ocean tide parameter values. Under the same assumption of zero solid tide phase lag, the lunar tidal acceleration was found mostly due to the C sub 22 term in the expansion of the M sub 2 tide with additional small contributions from the 0 sub 1 and N sub 2 tides. Using Lambeck's (1975) estimates for the latter, the obtained acceleration in lunar longitudal in excellent agreement with the most recent determinations from ancient and modern astronomical data.
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Ceyhun Arici
2014-08-01
Full Text Available Purpose: To investigate the effects of topically applied 1% cyclopentolate hydrochloride on anterior segment parameters obtained with a Pentacam rotating Scheimpflug camera in healthy young adults. Methods: Anterior segment analyses of 25 eyes from 25 young adults (Group 1, before and after 45 min of 1% cyclopentolate hydrochloride application, were performed. For a control group (cycloplegia-free, Group 2, 24 eyes of 24 age- and sex-matched healthy cases were evaluated twice at 45 min intervals. The results obtained from the groups were compared statistically. Results: The mean ages of the groups were 23.04 ± 3.42 (range, 18-29 and 22.4 ± 2.05 (range, 18-27 years for Groups 1 and 2, respectively (p=0.259. In Group 1, measurements between the two analyses were significantly different for the values of anterior chamber depth (ACD, anterior chamber angle (ACA, and anterior chamber volume (ACV (p<0.05, whereas no statistical difference was found for the central corneal thickness (CCT and keratometry (K1, K2 measurements. In Group 2, none of these parameters were statistically different between the two analyses. Conclusions: Topically applied 1% cyclopentolate hydrochloride caused an increase in the ACD and ACV values, and a decrease in the ACA value. However, it had no significant effect on the CCT and keratometry measurements. It is important to consider these effects when using the Pentacam device on young adults with cycloplegia and when applying it for various reasons.
The effect of uncertainty of reactor parameters obtained using k0-NAA on result of analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sasajima, Fumio
2006-01-01
Neutron Activation Analysis using the k 0 method is a useful method allowing convenient and accurate simultaneous analysis of plural elements, eliminating the need for the use of comparative reference samples. As already well known, it is essential for the correct result of an analysis to obtain the α-factor and f-factor for a neutron spectrum in an irradiation field accurately when an attempt is made to use the k 0 method. For this reason, based on data obtained from the experiment conducted in the JRR-3 PN-3 system, how uncertainty of the measured values for α-factor and f-factor affects the result of an analysis was evaluated. The process of evaluation involved intentionally varying the values for reactor parameters followed by making an analysis of environmental reference samples (NIST SRM-1632c) using the k 0 method to examine the effect of these factors on the concentrations of 19 elements. The result of the evaluation revealed that the degree of the effect of uncertainty on the concentrations of 19 elements was at best approx. 1% under the condition of this experiment assuming that the factor α, a reactor parameter, had uncertainty of approx. 200%. (author)
Mathematical models for correction of images, obtained at radioisotope scan
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Glaz, A.; Lubans, A.
2002-01-01
The images, which obtained at radioisotope scintigraphy, contain distortions. Distortions appear as a result of absorption of radiation by patient's body's tissues. Two mathematical models for reducing of such distortions are proposed. Image obtained by only one gamma camera is used in the first mathematical model. Unfortunately, this model allows processing of the images only in case, when it can be assumed, that the investigated organ has a symmetric form. The images obtained by two gamma cameras are used in the second model. It gives possibility to assume that the investigated organ has non-symmetric form and to acquire more precise results. (authors)
Song, Huan; Hu, Yaogai; Jiang, Chunhua; Zhou, Chen; Zhao, Zhengyu; Zou, Xianjian
2016-12-01
Scaling oblique ionogram plays an important role in obtaining ionospheric structure at the midpoint of oblique sounding path. The paper proposed an automatic scaling method to extract the trace and parameters of oblique ionogram based on hybrid genetic algorithm (HGA). The extracted 10 parameters come from F2 layer and Es layer, such as maximum observation frequency, critical frequency, and virtual height. The method adopts quasi-parabolic (QP) model to describe F2 layer's electron density profile that is used to synthesize trace. And it utilizes secant theorem, Martyn's equivalent path theorem, image processing technology, and echoes' characteristics to determine seven parameters' best fit values, and three parameter's initial values in QP model to set up their searching spaces which are the needed input data of HGA. Then HGA searches the three parameters' best fit values from their searching spaces based on the fitness between the synthesized trace and the real trace. In order to verify the performance of the method, 240 oblique ionograms are scaled and their results are compared with manual scaling results and the inversion results of the corresponding vertical ionograms. The comparison results show that the scaling results are accurate or at least adequate 60-90% of the time.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Meneghetti, Simoni Plentz; Lutz, Pierre J.; Duval, M.; Kress, Jacky; Lapp, A.
2001-01-01
Polyethylenes were obtained using palladium catalyst [(Ar N=C(Me)-C(Me)=N Ar) Pd(CH 2 ) 3 (COOMe)] + BAr' 4 - (VERSIPOL TM ); Ar2,6-i-Pr 2 -C 6 H 3 and Ar'3,5-(CF 3 ) 2 -C 6 H 3 . The combination of dilute solution and solid state characterization of these polyethylenes revealed strong differences between structural parameters of samples prepared under almost identical conditions except ethylene pressure (6, 3 and 1 bar). These differences can be explained by the fact that samples prepared at 6 bar are almost linear, with only a few short branches, whereas those synthesized at 1 bar are highly branched or even hyper branched. (author)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
E. Hadas
2018-05-01
Full Text Available The estimation of dendrometric parameters has become an important issue for agriculture planning and for the efficient management of orchards. Airborne Laser Scanning (ALS data is widely used in forestry and many algorithms for automatic estimation of dendrometric parameters of individual forest trees were developed. Unfortunately, due to significant differences between forest and fruit trees, some contradictions exist against adopting the achievements of forestry science to agricultural studies indiscriminately. In this study we present the methodology to identify individual trees in apple orchard and estimate heights of individual trees, using high-density LiDAR data (3200 points/m2 obtained with Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV equipped with Velodyne HDL32-E sensor. The processing strategy combines the alpha-shape algorithm, principal component analysis (PCA and detection of local minima. The alpha-shape algorithm is used to separate tree rows. In order to separate trees in a single row, we detect local minima on the canopy profile and slice polygons from alpha-shape results. We successfully separated 92 % of trees in the test area. 6 % of trees in orchard were not separated from each other and 2 % were sliced into two polygons. The RMSE of tree heights determined from the point clouds compared to field measurements was equal to 0.09 m, and the correlation coefficient was equal to 0.96. The results confirm the usefulness of LiDAR data from UAV platform in orchard inventory.
Hadas, E.; Jozkow, G.; Walicka, A.; Borkowski, A.
2018-05-01
The estimation of dendrometric parameters has become an important issue for agriculture planning and for the efficient management of orchards. Airborne Laser Scanning (ALS) data is widely used in forestry and many algorithms for automatic estimation of dendrometric parameters of individual forest trees were developed. Unfortunately, due to significant differences between forest and fruit trees, some contradictions exist against adopting the achievements of forestry science to agricultural studies indiscriminately. In this study we present the methodology to identify individual trees in apple orchard and estimate heights of individual trees, using high-density LiDAR data (3200 points/m2) obtained with Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) equipped with Velodyne HDL32-E sensor. The processing strategy combines the alpha-shape algorithm, principal component analysis (PCA) and detection of local minima. The alpha-shape algorithm is used to separate tree rows. In order to separate trees in a single row, we detect local minima on the canopy profile and slice polygons from alpha-shape results. We successfully separated 92 % of trees in the test area. 6 % of trees in orchard were not separated from each other and 2 % were sliced into two polygons. The RMSE of tree heights determined from the point clouds compared to field measurements was equal to 0.09 m, and the correlation coefficient was equal to 0.96. The results confirm the usefulness of LiDAR data from UAV platform in orchard inventory.
Regionalization of SWAT Model Parameters for Use in Ungauged Watersheds
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Indrajeet Chaubey
2010-11-01
Full Text Available There has been a steady shift towards modeling and model-based approaches as primary methods of assessing watershed response to hydrologic inputs and land management, and of quantifying watershed-wide best management practice (BMP effectiveness. Watershed models often require some degree of calibration and validation to achieve adequate watershed and therefore BMP representation. This is, however, only possible for gauged watersheds. There are many watersheds for which there are very little or no monitoring data available, thus the question as to whether it would be possible to extend and/or generalize model parameters obtained through calibration of gauged watersheds to ungauged watersheds within the same region. This study explored the possibility of developing regionalized model parameter sets for use in ungauged watersheds. The study evaluated two regionalization methods: global averaging, and regression-based parameters, on the SWAT model using data from priority watersheds in Arkansas. Resulting parameters were tested and model performance determined on three gauged watersheds. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (NS for stream flow obtained using regression-based parameters (0.53–0.83 compared well with corresponding values obtained through model calibration (0.45–0.90. Model performance obtained using global averaged parameter values was also generally acceptable (0.4 ≤ NS ≤ 0.75. Results from this study indicate that regionalized parameter sets for the SWAT model can be obtained and used for making satisfactory hydrologic response predictions in ungauged watersheds.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Joanna Mazur-Różycka
2017-07-01
Full Text Available The aim of the study was to compare selected biomechanical parameters obtained during various types of vertical jumps made by volleyball and basketball players on a dynamometric platform. The study involved 10 volleyball players and 10 basketball players in the age of 21.1 ± 1.81 years of the AZS AWF Warsaw sport club. The athletes performed two vertical jumps on a KISTLER platform. The first jump was a counter-movement jump (CMJ and the second was a spike jump (SPJ – a vertical jump which is performed with a 3-4 step run-up before the take-off. The participant's task was to take off and land on the platform. On the basis of the statistical analysis it was shown that only the type of jump had a significant effect on the height and power. The type of team sport did not affect the level of performance. In addition, it was found that the height of the jump is affected by the counter movement phase with hand swing and run-up. The volleyball and basketball players were equally able to get higher values for certain parameters in successive runs. Due to lack of statistically significant differences it was decided to combine two groups of athletes into one. For both jumps, the relationship between peak power and jump height was found at significance level p <0.001. Dynamometric platform can be used to check the athlete's height of jump and power of lower extremities. This method allows to verify the effectiveness of different types of training.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mirjana Rajčić Vujasinović
2009-09-01
Full Text Available Electrochemical systems with high capacities demand devices for electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS with ultra-low frequencies (in order of mHz, that are almost impossible to accomplish with analogue techniques, but this becomes possible by using a computer technique and accompanying digital equipment. Recently, an original software and hardware for electrochemical measurements, intended for electrochemical systems exhibiting high capacities, such as supercapacitors, has been developed. One of the included methods is EIS. In this paper, the method of calculation of circuit parameters from an EIS curve is described. The results of testing on a physical model of an electrochemical system, constructed of known elements (including a 1.6 F capacitor in a defined arrangement, proved the validity of the system and the method.
Bogoslovskii, S. Yu; Kuznetsov, N. N.; Boldyrev, V. S.
2017-11-01
Electrochlorination parameters were optimized in flowing and non-flowing modes for a cell with a volume of 1 l. At a current density of 0.1 A/cm2 in the range of flow rates from 0.8 to 6.0 l/h with a temperature of the initial solution below 20°C the outlet temperature is maintained close to the optimal 40°C. The pH of the solution during electrolysis increases to 8.8 ÷ 9.4. There was studied a process in which a solution with a temperature of 7-8°C and a concentration of sodium chloride of 25 and 35 g/l in non-flowing cell was used. The dependence of the concentration of active chlorine on the electrolysis time varies with the concentration of the initial solution of sodium chloride. In case of chloride concentration of 25 g/l virtually linear relationship makes it easy to choose the time of electrolysis with the aim of obtaining the needed concentration of the product.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Orhan Gökhan
2012-01-01
Full Text Available The effects of copper ion concentrations and electrolyte temperature on the morphologies and on the apparent densities of electrolytic copper powders at high current densities under galvanostatic regime were examined. These parameters were evaluated by the current efficiency of hydrogen evolution. In addition, scanning electron microscopy was used for analyzing the morphology of the copper powders. It was found that the morphology was dependent over the copper ion concentration and electrolyte temperature under same current density (CD conditions. At 150 mA cm-2 and the potential of 1000±20 mV (vs. SCE, porous and disperse copper powders were obtained at low concentrations of Cu ions (0.120 M Cu2+ in 0.50 M H2SO4. Under this condition, high rate of hydrogen evolution reaction took place parallel to copper electrodeposition. The morphology was changed from porous, disperse and cauliflower-like to coral-like, shrub-like and stalk-stock like morphology with the increasing of Cu ion concentrations towards 0.120 M, 0.155 M, 0.315 M, 0.475 M and 0.630 M Cu2+ in 0.5 M H2SO4 respectively at the same CD. Similarly, as the temperature was increased, powder morphology and apparent density were observed to be changed. The apparent density values of copper powders were found to be suitable for many of the powder metallurgy applications.
Models for estimating photosynthesis parameters from in situ production profiles
Kovač, Žarko; Platt, Trevor; Sathyendranath, Shubha; Antunović, Suzana
2017-12-01
photosynthesis irradiance functions and parameters for modeling in situ production profiles. In light of the results obtained in this work we argue that the choice of the primary production model should reflect the available data and these models should be data driven regarding parameter estimation.
Parameter Estimation of Partial Differential Equation Models.
Xun, Xiaolei; Cao, Jiguo; Mallick, Bani; Carroll, Raymond J; Maity, Arnab
2013-01-01
Partial differential equation (PDE) models are commonly used to model complex dynamic systems in applied sciences such as biology and finance. The forms of these PDE models are usually proposed by experts based on their prior knowledge and understanding of the dynamic system. Parameters in PDE models often have interesting scientific interpretations, but their values are often unknown, and need to be estimated from the measurements of the dynamic system in the present of measurement errors. Most PDEs used in practice have no analytic solutions, and can only be solved with numerical methods. Currently, methods for estimating PDE parameters require repeatedly solving PDEs numerically under thousands of candidate parameter values, and thus the computational load is high. In this article, we propose two methods to estimate parameters in PDE models: a parameter cascading method and a Bayesian approach. In both methods, the underlying dynamic process modeled with the PDE model is represented via basis function expansion. For the parameter cascading method, we develop two nested levels of optimization to estimate the PDE parameters. For the Bayesian method, we develop a joint model for data and the PDE, and develop a novel hierarchical model allowing us to employ Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to make posterior inference. Simulation studies show that the Bayesian method and parameter cascading method are comparable, and both outperform other available methods in terms of estimation accuracy. The two methods are demonstrated by estimating parameters in a PDE model from LIDAR data.
Quality assessment for radiological model parameters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Funtowicz, S.O.
1989-01-01
A prototype framework for representing uncertainties in radiological model parameters is introduced. This follows earlier development in this journal of a corresponding framework for representing uncertainties in radiological data. Refinements and extensions to the earlier framework are needed in order to take account of the additional contextual factors consequent on using data entries to quantify model parameters. The parameter coding can in turn feed in to methods for evaluating uncertainties in calculated model outputs. (author)
Modelling of classical ghost images obtained using scattered light
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Crosby, S; Castelletto, S; Aruldoss, C; Scholten, R E; Roberts, A
2007-01-01
The images obtained in ghost imaging with pseudo-thermal light sources are highly dependent on the spatial coherence properties of the incident light. Pseudo-thermal light is often created by reducing the coherence length of a coherent source by passing it through a turbid mixture of scattering spheres. We describe a model for simulating ghost images obtained with such partially coherent light, using a wave-transport model to calculate the influence of the scattering on initially coherent light. The model is able to predict important properties of the pseudo-thermal source, such as the coherence length and the amplitude of the residual unscattered component of the light which influence the resolution and visibility of the final ghost image. We show that the residual ballistic component introduces an additional background in the reconstructed image, and the spatial resolution obtainable depends on the size of the scattering spheres
Modelling of classical ghost images obtained using scattered light
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Crosby, S; Castelletto, S; Aruldoss, C; Scholten, R E; Roberts, A [School of Physics, University of Melbourne, Victoria, 3010 (Australia)
2007-08-15
The images obtained in ghost imaging with pseudo-thermal light sources are highly dependent on the spatial coherence properties of the incident light. Pseudo-thermal light is often created by reducing the coherence length of a coherent source by passing it through a turbid mixture of scattering spheres. We describe a model for simulating ghost images obtained with such partially coherent light, using a wave-transport model to calculate the influence of the scattering on initially coherent light. The model is able to predict important properties of the pseudo-thermal source, such as the coherence length and the amplitude of the residual unscattered component of the light which influence the resolution and visibility of the final ghost image. We show that the residual ballistic component introduces an additional background in the reconstructed image, and the spatial resolution obtainable depends on the size of the scattering spheres.
Dynamics in the Parameter Space of a Neuron Model
Paulo, C. Rech
2012-06-01
Some two-dimensional parameter-space diagrams are numerically obtained by considering the largest Lyapunov exponent for a four-dimensional thirteen-parameter Hindmarsh—Rose neuron model. Several different parameter planes are considered, and it is shown that depending on the combination of parameters, a typical scenario can be preserved: for some choice of two parameters, the parameter plane presents a comb-shaped chaotic region embedded in a large periodic region. It is also shown that there exist regions close to these comb-shaped chaotic regions, separated by the comb teeth, organizing themselves in period-adding bifurcation cascades.
Establishing statistical models of manufacturing parameters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Senevat, J.; Pape, J.L.; Deshayes, J.F.
1991-01-01
This paper reports on the effect of pilgering and cold-work parameters on contractile strain ratio and mechanical properties that were investigated using a large population of Zircaloy tubes. Statistical models were established between: contractile strain ratio and tooling parameters, mechanical properties (tensile test, creep test) and cold-work parameters, and mechanical properties and stress-relieving temperature
Yew, Alvin G.; Chai, Dean J.; Olney, David J.
2010-01-01
The goal of NASA's Magnetospheric MultiScale (MMS) mission is to understand magnetic reconnection with sensor measurements from four spinning satellites flown in a tight tetrahedron formation. Four of the six electric field sensors on each satellite are located at the end of 60- meter wire booms to increase measurement sensitivity in the spin plane and to minimize motion coupling from perturbations on the main body. A propulsion burn however, might induce boom oscillations that could impact science measurements if oscillations do not damp to values on the order of 0.1 degree in a timely fashion. Large damping time constants could also adversely affect flight dynamics and attitude control performance. In this paper, we will discuss the implementation of a high resolution method for calculating the boom's intrinsic damping, which was used in multi-body dynamics simulations. In summary, experimental data was obtained with a scaled-down boom, which was suspended as a pendulum in vacuum. Optical techniques were designed to accurately measure the natural decay of angular position and subsequently, data processing algorithms resulted in excellent spatial and temporal resolutions. This method was repeated in a parametric study for various lengths, root tensions and vacuum levels. For all data sets, regression models for damping were applied, including: nonlinear viscous, frequency-independent hysteretic, coulomb and some combination of them. Our data analysis and dynamics models have shown that the intrinsic damping for the baseline boom is insufficient, thereby forcing project management to explore mitigation strategies.
Duchêne, Gaëtan; Peeters, Frank; Peeters, André; Duprez, Thierry
2017-08-01
To compare the sensitivity and early temporal changes of diffusion parameters obtained from diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), diffusional kurtosis imaging (DKI), q-space analysis (QSA) and bi-exponential modelling in hyperacute stroke patients. A single investigational acquisition allowing the four diffusion analyses was performed on seven hyperacute stroke patients with a 3T system. The percentage change between ipsi- and contralateral regions were compared at admission and 24 h later. Two out of the seven patients were imaged every 6 h during this period. Kurtoses from both DKI and QSA were the most sensitive of the tested diffusion parameters in the few hours following ischemia. An early increase-maximum-decrease pattern of evolution was highlighted during the 24-h period for all parameters proportional to diffusion coefficients. A similar pattern was observed for both kurtoses in only one of two patients. Our comparison was performed using identical diffusion encoding timings and on patients in the same stage of their condition. Although preliminary, our findings confirm those of previous studies that showed enhanced sensitivity of kurtosis. A fine time mapping of diffusion metrics in hyperacute stroke patients was presented which advocates for further investigations on larger animal or human cohorts.
Plavanescu Mazurchevici, Simona; Carausu, Constantin; Comaneci, Radu; Nedelcu, Dumitru
2017-10-01
The plastic products contribute to environmental pollution. Replacing the plastic materials with biodegradable materials with superior properties is an absolute necessity and important research direction for the near future. The first steps in this regard were the creation of composite materials containing natural fibers with positive effects on the environment that have penetrated in different fields. The bioplastics and biocomposites made from natural fibers is a topical solution. The next step was made towards obtaining biodegradable and recyclable materials based on cellulose, lignin and no carcinogens. In this category fall the "liquid wood" with a use up to five times without affecting the mechanical properties. "Liquid wood" is a high quality thermoplastic biocomposite. "Liquid wood" is a biopolymer composite divided in three categories, ARBOFORM®, ARBOBLEND® and ARBOFILL®, which have differed composition in terms of lignin percentage, being delivered by Tecnaro, as granules, [1]. The paper's research was focus on Arboform L V3 Nature and Arboform L V3 Nature reinforced with aramid fiber. In the experimental plan were taken into account six parameters (Dinj - direction of injection [°]; Ttop - melting temperature [°C]; Pinj - injection pressure [MPa] Ss - speed [m/min]; tinj - injection time [s] and tc - cooling time [s]) each with two levels, research carried on by Taguchi methodology. Processing Taguchi method allowed both Taguchi setting work parameters influence on storage modulus and damping as the size and influence their ranking. Experimental research concerning the influence technological parameters on storage modulus of samples obtained by injection from Arboform L V3 Nature yielded an average of 6055MPa and descending order as follows: Trac, Ss, Pinj, Dinj and Ttop. The average of model for reinforced material was 6419MPa and descending order of parameters influence such as: Dinj, Trac, Ttop, tinj, Ss and Pinj.
Robust estimation of hydrological model parameters
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. Bárdossy
2008-11-01
Full Text Available The estimation of hydrological model parameters is a challenging task. With increasing capacity of computational power several complex optimization algorithms have emerged, but none of the algorithms gives a unique and very best parameter vector. The parameters of fitted hydrological models depend upon the input data. The quality of input data cannot be assured as there may be measurement errors for both input and state variables. In this study a methodology has been developed to find a set of robust parameter vectors for a hydrological model. To see the effect of observational error on parameters, stochastically generated synthetic measurement errors were applied to observed discharge and temperature data. With this modified data, the model was calibrated and the effect of measurement errors on parameters was analysed. It was found that the measurement errors have a significant effect on the best performing parameter vector. The erroneous data led to very different optimal parameter vectors. To overcome this problem and to find a set of robust parameter vectors, a geometrical approach based on Tukey's half space depth was used. The depth of the set of N randomly generated parameters was calculated with respect to the set with the best model performance (Nash-Sutclife efficiency was used for this study for each parameter vector. Based on the depth of parameter vectors, one can find a set of robust parameter vectors. The results show that the parameters chosen according to the above criteria have low sensitivity and perform well when transfered to a different time period. The method is demonstrated on the upper Neckar catchment in Germany. The conceptual HBV model was used for this study.
Model parameter updating using Bayesian networks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Treml, C.A.; Ross, Timothy J.
2004-01-01
This paper outlines a model parameter updating technique for a new method of model validation using a modified model reference adaptive control (MRAC) framework with Bayesian Networks (BNs). The model parameter updating within this method is generic in the sense that the model/simulation to be validated is treated as a black box. It must have updateable parameters to which its outputs are sensitive, and those outputs must have metrics that can be compared to that of the model reference, i.e., experimental data. Furthermore, no assumptions are made about the statistics of the model parameter uncertainty, only upper and lower bounds need to be specified. This method is designed for situations where a model is not intended to predict a complete point-by-point time domain description of the item/system behavior; rather, there are specific points, features, or events of interest that need to be predicted. These specific points are compared to the model reference derived from actual experimental data. The logic for updating the model parameters to match the model reference is formed via a BN. The nodes of this BN consist of updateable model input parameters and the specific output values or features of interest. Each time the model is executed, the input/output pairs are used to adapt the conditional probabilities of the BN. Each iteration further refines the inferred model parameters to produce the desired model output. After parameter updating is complete and model inputs are inferred, reliabilities for the model output are supplied. Finally, this method is applied to a simulation of a resonance control cooling system for a prototype coupled cavity linac. The results are compared to experimental data.
On parameter estimation in deformable models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fisker, Rune; Carstensen, Jens Michael
1998-01-01
Deformable templates have been intensively studied in image analysis through the last decade, but despite its significance the estimation of model parameters has received little attention. We present a method for supervised and unsupervised model parameter estimation using a general Bayesian form...
Wang, Mengmeng; Gao, Yuzhen; Feng, Huijuan; Warner, Elisa; An, Mingrui; Jia, Jian'an; Chen, Shipeng; Fang, Meng; Ji, Jun; Gu, Xing; Gao, Chunfang
2018-03-01
Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are the most prevalent histologic types of primary liver cancer (PLC). Although ICC and HCC share similar risk factors and clinical manifestations, ICC usually bears poorer prognosis than HCC. Confidently discriminating ICC and HCC before surgery is beneficial to both treatment and prognosis. Given the lack of effective differential diagnosis biomarkers and methods, construction of models based on available clinicopathological characteristics is in need. Nomograms present a simple and efficient way to make a discrimination. A total of 2894 patients who underwent surgery for PLC were collected. Of these, 1614 patients formed the training cohort for nomogram construction, and thereafter, 1280 patients formed the validation cohort to confirm the model's performance. Histopathologically confirmed ICC was diagnosed in 401 (24.8%) and 296 (23.1%) patients in these two cohorts, respectively. A nomogram integrating six easily obtained variables (Gender, Hepatitis B surface antigen, Aspartate aminotransferase, Alpha-fetoprotein, Carcinoembryonic antigen, Carbohydrate antigen 19-9) is proposed in accordance with Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). A score of 15 was determined as the cut-off value, and the corresponding discrimination efficacy was sufficient. Additionally, patients who scored higher than 15 suffered poorer prognosis than those with lower scores, regardless of the subtype of PLC. A nomogram for clinical discrimination of ICC and HCC has been established, where a higher score indicates ICC and poor prognosis. Further application of this nomogram in multicenter investigations may confirm the practicality of this tool for future clinical use. © 2018 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
A Numerical Procedure to Obtain the Creep Parameters of the Thermal Barrier Coating
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shifeng Wen
2014-05-01
Full Text Available Three-point bending creep test was used to understand the creep behavior of typical thin film/substrate systems—thermal barrier coating (TBC systems. Firstly, a simplified model, which does not consider the local effect, has been set up to get an analytical relationship. The important result is that creep stress exponent of materials is equal to the creep load exponent of the steady-state deflection rate of BC specimens. Secondly, in order to consider the local effect of bending, the finite element method (FEM has been carried out. FEM calculation shows that there is a steady stage of the creep deflection under a constant applied load. And the exponent of the steady-state creep deflection rate to the applied load is found to be equal to the creep stress exponent of materials. The creep constant of the materials can be obtained by a set of trials with assumed creep constants of materials and can be finally determined by the best fit method. Finally, the finite element results show that the influences of the friction, the thickness of TBCs, and the modulus ratio of TBC to the substrate on stress distribution are important.
Obtaining the Varshni potential function using the 2-body Kaxiras–Pandey parameters
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
TEIK-CHENG LIM
2009-12-01
Full Text Available A generalized version of the Varshni potential function was adopted by Kaxiras and Pandey for describing the 2-body energy portion of multi-body condensed matter. The former’s simplicity and resemblance to a Morse potential allows faster computation while the latter’s greater number of parameters allows better curve-fitting of spectroscopic data. This paper shows one set of parameter conversion from the Varshni function to the 2-body portion of the Kaxiras–Pandey function, and vice versa two sets of parameter conversion. The latter two sets reveal good correlation between plotted curves, and were verified by the imposition of equal energy curvatures at equilibrium and equal energy integral from equilibrium to dissociation. These parameter conversions can also be attained more easily by equating the product of indices (for short range and the summation of index reciprocals (for long range.
Determination of the Corona model parameters with artificial neural networks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ahmet, Nayir; Bekir, Karlik; Arif, Hashimov
2005-01-01
Full text : The aim of this study is to calculate new model parameters taking into account the corona of electrical transmission line wires. For this purpose, a neural network modeling proposed for the corona frequent characteristics modeling. Then this model was compared with the other model developed at the Polytechnic Institute of Saint Petersburg. The results of development of the specified corona model for calculation of its influence on the wave processes in multi-wires line and determination of its parameters are submitted. Results of obtained calculation equations are brought for electrical transmission line with allowance for superficial effect in the ground and wires with reference to developed corona model
Simultaneous inference for model averaging of derived parameters
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jensen, Signe Marie; Ritz, Christian
2015-01-01
Model averaging is a useful approach for capturing uncertainty due to model selection. Currently, this uncertainty is often quantified by means of approximations that do not easily extend to simultaneous inference. Moreover, in practice there is a need for both model averaging and simultaneous...... inference for derived parameters calculated in an after-fitting step. We propose a method for obtaining asymptotically correct standard errors for one or several model-averaged estimates of derived parameters and for obtaining simultaneous confidence intervals that asymptotically control the family...
Parameter identification in multinomial processing tree models
Schmittmann, V.D.; Dolan, C.V.; Raijmakers, M.E.J.; Batchelder, W.H.
2010-01-01
Multinomial processing tree models form a popular class of statistical models for categorical data that have applications in various areas of psychological research. As in all statistical models, establishing which parameters are identified is necessary for model inference and selection on the basis
Parameter Estimation of Partial Differential Equation Models
Xun, Xiaolei
2013-09-01
Partial differential equation (PDE) models are commonly used to model complex dynamic systems in applied sciences such as biology and finance. The forms of these PDE models are usually proposed by experts based on their prior knowledge and understanding of the dynamic system. Parameters in PDE models often have interesting scientific interpretations, but their values are often unknown and need to be estimated from the measurements of the dynamic system in the presence of measurement errors. Most PDEs used in practice have no analytic solutions, and can only be solved with numerical methods. Currently, methods for estimating PDE parameters require repeatedly solving PDEs numerically under thousands of candidate parameter values, and thus the computational load is high. In this article, we propose two methods to estimate parameters in PDE models: a parameter cascading method and a Bayesian approach. In both methods, the underlying dynamic process modeled with the PDE model is represented via basis function expansion. For the parameter cascading method, we develop two nested levels of optimization to estimate the PDE parameters. For the Bayesian method, we develop a joint model for data and the PDE and develop a novel hierarchical model allowing us to employ Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to make posterior inference. Simulation studies show that the Bayesian method and parameter cascading method are comparable, and both outperform other available methods in terms of estimation accuracy. The two methods are demonstrated by estimating parameters in a PDE model from long-range infrared light detection and ranging data. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. © 2013 American Statistical Association.
Peters, B. C., Jr.; Walker, H. F.
1975-01-01
New results and insights concerning a previously published iterative procedure for obtaining maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions were discussed. It was shown that the procedure converges locally to the consistent maximum likelihood estimate as long as a specified parameter is bounded between two limits. Bound values were given to yield optimal local convergence.
CALIBRATIONS OF ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS OBTAINED FROM THE FIRST YEAR OF SDSS-III APOGEE OBSERVATIONS
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mészáros, Sz.; Allende Prieto, C. [Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias (IAC), E-38200 La Laguna, Tenerife (Spain); Holtzman, J. [New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM 88003 (United States); García Pérez, A. E.; Chojnowski, S. D.; Hearty, F. R.; Majewski, S. R. [Department of Astronomy, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22904-4325 (United States); Schiavon, R. P. [Astrophysics Research Institute, Liverpool John Moores University, Egerton Wharf, Birkenhead, Wirral CH41 1LD (United Kingdom); Basu, S. [Department of Astronomy, Yale University, P.O. Box 208101, New Haven, CT 06520-8101 (United States); Bizyaev, D. [Apache Point Observatory, P.O. Box 59, Sunspot, NM 88349-0059 (United States); Chaplin, W. J.; Elsworth, Y. [University of Birmingham, School of Physics and Astronomy, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT (United Kingdom); Cunha, K. [Steward Observatory, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721 (United States); Epstein, C.; Johnson, J. A. [Department of Astronomy, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Frinchaboy, P. M. [Texas Christian University, Fort Worth, TX 76129 (United States); García, R. A. [Laboratoire AIM, CEA/DSM-CNRS-Université Paris Diderot, IRFU/SAp, Centre de Saclay, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Hekker, S. [Astronomical Institute ' ' Anton Pannekoek' ' , University of Amsterdam, Science Park 904, 1098 XH Amsterdam (Netherlands); Kallinger, T. [Institute for Astronomy, University of Vienna, Türkenschanzstrasse 17, A-1180 Vienna (Austria); Koesterke, L. [Texas Advanced Computing Center, University of Texas, Austin, TX 78759 (United States); and others
2013-11-01
The Sloan Digital Sky Survey III (SDSS-III) Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) is a three-year survey that is collecting 10{sup 5} high-resolution spectra in the near-IR across multiple Galactic populations. To derive stellar parameters and chemical compositions from this massive data set, the APOGEE Stellar Parameters and Chemical Abundances Pipeline (ASPCAP) has been developed. Here, we describe empirical calibrations of stellar parameters presented in the first SDSS-III APOGEE data release (DR10). These calibrations were enabled by observations of 559 stars in 20 globular and open clusters. The cluster observations were supplemented by observations of stars in NASA's Kepler field that have well determined surface gravities from asteroseismic analysis. We discuss the accuracy and precision of the derived stellar parameters, considering especially effective temperature, surface gravity, and metallicity; we also briefly discuss the derived results for the abundances of the α-elements, carbon, and nitrogen. Overall, we find that ASPCAP achieves reasonably accurate results for temperature and metallicity, but suffers from systematic errors in surface gravity. We derive calibration relations that bring the raw ASPCAP results into better agreement with independently determined stellar parameters. The internal scatter of ASPCAP parameters within clusters suggests that metallicities are measured with a precision better than 0.1 dex, effective temperatures better than 150 K, and surface gravities better than 0.2 dex. The understanding provided by the clusters and Kepler giants on the current accuracy and precision will be invaluable for future improvements of the pipeline.
Effective Fragment Potential Method for H-Bonding: How To Obtain Parameters for Nonrigid Fragments.
Dubinets, Nikita; Slipchenko, Lyudmila V
2017-07-20
Accuracy of the effective fragment potential (EFP) method was explored for describing intermolecular interaction energies in three dimers with strong H-bonded interactions, formic acid, formamide, and formamidine dimers, which are a part of HBC6 database of noncovalent interactions. Monomer geometries in these dimers change significantly as a function of intermonomer separation. Several EFP schemes were considered, in which fragment parameters were prepared for a fragment in its gas-phase geometry or recomputed for each unique fragment geometry. Additionally, a scheme in which gas-phase fragment parameters are shifted according to relaxed fragment geometries is introduced and tested. EFP data are compared against the coupled cluster with single, double, and perturbative triple excitations (CCSD(T)) method in a complete basis set (CBS) and the symmetry adapted perturbation theory (SAPT). All considered EFP schemes provide a good agreement with CCSD(T)/CBS for binding energies at equilibrium separations, with discrepancies not exceeding 2 kcal/mol. However, only the schemes that utilize relaxed fragment geometries remain qualitatively correct at shorter than equilibrium intermolecular distances. The EFP scheme with shifted parameters behaves quantitatively similar to the scheme in which parameters are recomputed for each monomer geometry and thus is recommended as a computationally efficient approach for large-scale EFP simulations of flexible systems.
A front-circuit system of obtaining simultaneously the associated parameters from the MWPC
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mei Wen; Yu Xiaoqi; Ye Bangjiao; Fan Yangmei
1991-01-01
A wire signal getting circuit is introduce. It describes how to get the associated parameters from the produced signal on the proportional wires (i.e, DE signal, time signal and address signal). The noise of preamplifiers is 1.66 fC. The pulse sustained time is 2.5μs. The energy resolution is 25%
Parameter identification in the logistic STAR model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ekner, Line Elvstrøm; Nejstgaard, Emil
We propose a new and simple parametrization of the so-called speed of transition parameter of the logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) model. The new parametrization highlights that a consequence of the well-known identification problem of the speed of transition parameter is that th...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nakatsuka, Masafumi; Uchida, Katsuya; Miyazaki, Akihiro; Ishii, Yoshiaki
2007-01-01
An obvious quantitative relation between hydrogen concentrations in zirconium alloy and acoustic anisotropy parameters obtained by the electromagnetic acoustic resonance (EMAR) method was reported. To elucidate the mechanism, the acoustic parameters were calculated based on the elastic theory and the equation of motion. The acoustic parameters of obtained by the EMAR method were interpreted quantitatively using the anisotropic elastic constants of the specimen, and value calculated from texture data for non-hydrogen charged specimens showed good agreement with those obtained by the EMAR method. Calculated temperature dependence of the acoustic anisotropy for the non-hydrogen charged specimen also agreed well with that by the EMAR method. The consistencies demonstrated that the absolute values of the acoustic parameters for non-hydrogen charged specimen can be calculated from both the texture data of (0002) pole figure and the elastic constants of the specimen. Hydrogen addition up to approximately 650ppm was found not to change the original (0002) pole figure and, correspondingly, no hydrogen concentration dependence of the acoustic parameters was obtained from the calculation. These results implied that the zirconium hydride itself played an important role for the change in the acoustic parameters of the hydrogen charged specimens, and the importance of obtaining the information on the elastic constants of the zirconium hydride was pointed out. (author)
Biological parameters for lung cancer in mathematical models of carcinogenesis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jacob, P.; Jacob, V.
2003-01-01
Applications of the two-step model of carcinogenesis with clonal expansion (TSCE) to lung cancer data are reviewed, including those on atomic bomb survivors from Hiroshima and Nagasaki, British doctors, Colorado Plateau miners, and Chinese tin miners. Different sets of identifiable model parameters are used in the literature. The parameter set which could be determined with the lowest uncertainty consists of the net proliferation rate gamma of intermediate cells, the hazard h 55 at an intermediate age, and the hazard H? at an asymptotically large age. Also, the values of these three parameters obtained in the various studies are more consistent than other identifiable combinations of the biological parameters. Based on representative results for these three parameters, implications for the biological parameters in the TSCE model are derived. (author)
Exploiting intrinsic fluctuations to identify model parameters.
Zimmer, Christoph; Sahle, Sven; Pahle, Jürgen
2015-04-01
Parameterisation of kinetic models plays a central role in computational systems biology. Besides the lack of experimental data of high enough quality, some of the biggest challenges here are identification issues. Model parameters can be structurally non-identifiable because of functional relationships. Noise in measured data is usually considered to be a nuisance for parameter estimation. However, it turns out that intrinsic fluctuations in particle numbers can make parameters identifiable that were previously non-identifiable. The authors present a method to identify model parameters that are structurally non-identifiable in a deterministic framework. The method takes time course recordings of biochemical systems in steady state or transient state as input. Often a functional relationship between parameters presents itself by a one-dimensional manifold in parameter space containing parameter sets of optimal goodness. Although the system's behaviour cannot be distinguished on this manifold in a deterministic framework it might be distinguishable in a stochastic modelling framework. Their method exploits this by using an objective function that includes a measure for fluctuations in particle numbers. They show on three example models, immigration-death, gene expression and Epo-EpoReceptor interaction, that this resolves the non-identifiability even in the case of measurement noise with known amplitude. The method is applied to partially observed recordings of biochemical systems with measurement noise. It is simple to implement and it is usually very fast to compute. This optimisation can be realised in a classical or Bayesian fashion.
Setting Parameters for Biological Models With ANIMO
Schivo, Stefano; Scholma, Jetse; Karperien, Hermanus Bernardus Johannes; Post, Janine Nicole; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Langerak, Romanus; André, Étienne; Frehse, Goran
2014-01-01
ANIMO (Analysis of Networks with Interactive MOdeling) is a software for modeling biological networks, such as e.g. signaling, metabolic or gene networks. An ANIMO model is essentially the sum of a network topology and a number of interaction parameters. The topology describes the interactions
Deterministic Method for Obtaining Nominal and Uncertainty Models of CD Drives
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Vidal, Enrique Sanchez; Stoustrup, Jakob; Andersen, Palle
2002-01-01
In this paper a deterministic method for obtaining the nominal and uncertainty models of the focus loop in a CD-player is presented based on parameter identification and measurements in the focus loop of 12 actual CD drives that differ by having worst-case behaviors with respect to various...... properties. The method provides a systematic way to derive a nominal average model as well as a structures multiplicative input uncertainty model, and it is demonstrated how to apply mu-theory to design a controller based on the models obtained that meets certain robust performance criteria....
Parameters and error of a theoretical model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Moeller, P.; Nix, J.R.; Swiatecki, W.
1986-09-01
We propose a definition for the error of a theoretical model of the type whose parameters are determined from adjustment to experimental data. By applying a standard statistical method, the maximum-likelihoodlmethod, we derive expressions for both the parameters of the theoretical model and its error. We investigate the derived equations by solving them for simulated experimental and theoretical quantities generated by use of random number generators. 2 refs., 4 tabs
Parameter Estimation of Nonlinear Models in Forestry.
Fekedulegn, Desta; Mac Siúrtáin, Máirtín Pádraig; Colbert, Jim J.
1999-01-01
Partial derivatives of the negative exponential, monomolecular, Mitcherlich, Gompertz, logistic, Chapman-Richards, von Bertalanffy, Weibull and the Richard’s nonlinear growth models are presented. The application of these partial derivatives in estimating the model parameters is illustrated. The parameters are estimated using the Marquardt iterative method of nonlinear regression relating top height to age of Norway spruce (Picea abies L.) from the Bowmont Norway Spruce Thinnin...
A consistent homogenization procedure to obtain few-group cell parameters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pierini, G.
1979-01-01
The criterion, according to which one heterogeneous and one homogeneous cell are equivalent if they have the same boundary values of both the flux and the normal components of the current, is used to homogenize radially an axially infinite cylindrical cell, with azimuth independent properties and moderatur adequately described by diffusion theory. The method, which leads to the definition of a full matrix of diffusion coefficients, provides a new and simple definition of the few-group cell parameters, which are nearly independent of the environment. (orig.) [de
Description of patellar movement by 3D parameters obtained from dynamic CT acquisition
de Sá Rebelo, Marina; Moreno, Ramon Alfredo; Gobbi, Riccardo Gomes; Camanho, Gilberto Luis; de Ávila, Luiz Francisco Rodrigues; Demange, Marco Kawamura; Pecora, Jose Ricardo; Gutierrez, Marco Antonio
2014-03-01
The patellofemoral joint is critical in the biomechanics of the knee. The patellofemoral instability is one condition that generates pain, functional impairment and often requires surgery as part of orthopedic treatment. The analysis of the patellofemoral dynamics has been performed by several medical image modalities. The clinical parameters assessed are mainly based on 2D measurements, such as the patellar tilt angle and the lateral shift among others. Besides, the acquisition protocols are mostly performed with the leg laid static at fixed angles. The use of helical multi slice CT scanner can allow the capture and display of the joint's movement performed actively by the patient. However, the orthopedic applications of this scanner have not yet been standardized or widespread. In this work we present a method to evaluate the biomechanics of the patellofemoral joint during active contraction using multi slice CT images. This approach can greatly improve the analysis of patellar instability by displaying the physiology during muscle contraction. The movement was evaluated by computing its 3D displacements and rotations from different knee angles. The first processing step registered the images in both angles based on the femuŕs position. The transformation matrix of the patella from the images was then calculated, which provided the rotations and translations performed by the patella from its position in the first image to its position in the second image. Analysis of these parameters for all frames provided real 3D information about the patellar displacement.
Regionalising Parameters of a Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model for ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
IHACRES, a lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model, was calibrated to six catchments ranging in size from 49km2 to 600 km2 within the upper Tana River basin to obtain a set of model parameters that characterise the hydrological behaviour within the region. Physical catchment attributes indexing topography, soil and ...
Geometry parameters for musculoskeletal modelling of the shoulder system
Van der Helm, F C; Veeger, DirkJan (H. E. J.); Pronk, G M; Van der Woude, L H; Rozendal, R H
A dynamical finite-element model of the shoulder mechanism consisting of thorax, clavicula, scapula and humerus is outlined. The parameters needed for the model are obtained in a cadaver experiment consisting of both shoulders of seven cadavers. In this paper, in particular, the derivation of
Rain storm models and the relationship between their parameters
Stol, P.T.
1977-01-01
Rainfall interstation correlation functions can be obtained with the aid of analytic rainfall or storm models. Since alternative storm models have different mathematical formulas, comparison should be based on equallity of parameters like storm diameter, mean rainfall amount, storm maximum or total
Wind Farm Decentralized Dynamic Modeling With Parameters
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Soltani, Mohsen; Shakeri, Sayyed Mojtaba; Grunnet, Jacob Deleuran
2010-01-01
Development of dynamic wind flow models for wind farms is part of the research in European research FP7 project AEOLUS. The objective of this report is to provide decentralized dynamic wind flow models with parameters. The report presents a structure for decentralized flow models with inputs from...... local models. The results of this report are especially useful, but not limited, to design a decentralized wind farm controller, since in centralized controller design one can also use the model and update it in a central computing node.......Development of dynamic wind flow models for wind farms is part of the research in European research FP7 project AEOLUS. The objective of this report is to provide decentralized dynamic wind flow models with parameters. The report presents a structure for decentralized flow models with inputs from...
Parameter Estimation for Thurstone Choice Models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Vojnovic, Milan [London School of Economics (United Kingdom); Yun, Seyoung [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2017-04-24
We consider the estimation accuracy of individual strength parameters of a Thurstone choice model when each input observation consists of a choice of one item from a set of two or more items (so called top-1 lists). This model accommodates the well-known choice models such as the Luce choice model for comparison sets of two or more items and the Bradley-Terry model for pair comparisons. We provide a tight characterization of the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator. We also provide similar characterizations for parameter estimators defined by a rank-breaking method, which amounts to deducing one or more pair comparisons from a comparison of two or more items, assuming independence of these pair comparisons, and maximizing a likelihood function derived under these assumptions. We also consider a related binary classification problem where each individual parameter takes value from a set of two possible values and the goal is to correctly classify all items within a prescribed classification error. The results of this paper shed light on how the parameter estimation accuracy depends on given Thurstone choice model and the structure of comparison sets. In particular, we found that for unbiased input comparison sets of a given cardinality, when in expectation each comparison set of given cardinality occurs the same number of times, for a broad class of Thurstone choice models, the mean squared error decreases with the cardinality of comparison sets, but only marginally according to a diminishing returns relation. On the other hand, we found that there exist Thurstone choice models for which the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator can decrease much faster with the cardinality of comparison sets. We report empirical evaluation of some claims and key parameters revealed by theory using both synthetic and real-world input data from some popular sport competitions and online labor platforms.
Combined analysis of the S and W parameters obtained from positron annihilation spectra
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fedorov, A.V.; Veen, A. van; Schut, H.
2001-01-01
Variable energy positron beam analysis (PBA) has proven to be a very useful and powerful technique for the study of nanosize layer structures and point defects in various materials. Analysis of the positron annihilation spectra is usually performed with the help of the S and W parameters. By mapping the experimental points in the S-W plane the cluster points characteristic for the layers or defects can be derived. We have developed the program SWAN (S-W analysis) to enable to trace these cluster points and to calculate the fractions of the positrons annihilated at the layers or defects ascribed to the cluster points. In combination with the known computer code VEPFIT, program SWAN was successfully used for analyzing the S and W- curves for a number of samples. As an example, the analysis of SIMOX sample measured by PBA is presented. The program runs on a PC, has a user-friendly interface and is available for distribution. (orig.)
Systematic parameter inference in stochastic mesoscopic modeling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lei, Huan; Yang, Xiu [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99352 (United States); Li, Zhen [Division of Applied Mathematics, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912 (United States); Karniadakis, George Em, E-mail: george_karniadakis@brown.edu [Division of Applied Mathematics, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912 (United States)
2017-02-01
We propose a method to efficiently determine the optimal coarse-grained force field in mesoscopic stochastic simulations of Newtonian fluid and polymer melt systems modeled by dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) and energy conserving dissipative particle dynamics (eDPD). The response surfaces of various target properties (viscosity, diffusivity, pressure, etc.) with respect to model parameters are constructed based on the generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansion using simulation results on sampling points (e.g., individual parameter sets). To alleviate the computational cost to evaluate the target properties, we employ the compressive sensing method to compute the coefficients of the dominant gPC terms given the prior knowledge that the coefficients are “sparse”. The proposed method shows comparable accuracy with the standard probabilistic collocation method (PCM) while it imposes a much weaker restriction on the number of the simulation samples especially for systems with high dimensional parametric space. Fully access to the response surfaces within the confidence range enables us to infer the optimal force parameters given the desirable values of target properties at the macroscopic scale. Moreover, it enables us to investigate the intrinsic relationship between the model parameters, identify possible degeneracies in the parameter space, and optimize the model by eliminating model redundancies. The proposed method provides an efficient alternative approach for constructing mesoscopic models by inferring model parameters to recover target properties of the physics systems (e.g., from experimental measurements), where those force field parameters and formulation cannot be derived from the microscopic level in a straight forward way.
Application of lumped-parameter models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, Morten
This technical report concerns the lumped-parameter models for a suction caisson with a ratio between skirt length and foundation diameter equal to 1/2, embedded into an viscoelastic soil. The models are presented for three different values of the shear modulus of the subsoil (section 1.1). Subse...
Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Miller, C.W.
1984-01-01
This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base
WINKLER'S SINGLE-PARAMETER SUBGRADE MODEL FROM ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Preferred Customer
Page 1 ... corresponding single-parameter Winkler model presented in this work. Keywords: Heterogeneous subgrade, Reissner's simplified continuum, Shear interaction, Simplified continuum, Winkler ... model in practical applications and its long time familiarity among practical engineers, its usage has endured to this date ...
Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Miller, C W [ed.
1984-01-01
This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base. (ACR)
Consistent Stochastic Modelling of Meteocean Design Parameters
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Sterndorff, M. J.
2000-01-01
Consistent stochastic models of metocean design parameters and their directional dependencies are essential for reliability assessment of offshore structures. In this paper a stochastic model for the annual maximum values of the significant wave height, and the associated wind velocity, current...
Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Miller, C.W.
1983-01-01
This article reviews the forthcoming book Models and Parameters for Environmental Radiological Assessments, which presents a unified compilation of models and parameters for assessing the impact on man of radioactive discharges, both routine and accidental, into the environment. Models presented in this book include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Summaries are presented for each of the transport and dosimetry areas previously for each of the transport and dosimetry areas previously mentioned, and details are available in the literature cited. A chapter of example problems illustrates many of the methodologies presented throughout the text. Models and parameters presented are based on the results of extensive literature reviews and evaluations performed primarily by the staff of the Health and Safety Research Division of Oak Ridge National Laboratory
de Oliveira, R L; de Carvalho, G G P; Oliveira, R L; Tosto, M S L; Santos, E M; Ribeiro, R D X; Silva, T M; Correia, B R; de Rufino, L M A
2017-10-01
The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of the inclusion of palm kernel (Elaeis guineensis) cake in diets for goats on feeding behaviors, rectal temperature, and cardiac and respiratory frequencies. Forty crossbred Boer male, non-castrated goats (ten animals per treatment), with an average age of 90 days and an initial body weight of 15.01 ± 1.76 kg, were used. The goats were fed Tifton 85 (Cynodon spp.) hay and palm kernel supplemented at the rates of 0, 7, 14, and 21% of dry matter (DM). The feeding behaviors (rumination, feeding, and idling times) were observed for three 24-h periods. DM and neutral detergent fiber (NDF) intake values were estimated as the difference between the total DM and NDF contents of the feed offered and the total DM and NDF contents of the orts. There was no effect of palm kernel cake inclusion in goat diets on DM intake (P > 0.05). However, palm kernel cake promoted a linear increase (P kernel cakes had no effects (P > 0.05) on the chewing, feeding, and rumination efficiency (DM and NDF) or on physiological variables. The use up to 21% palm kernel cake in the diet of crossbred Boer goats maintained the feeding behaviors and did not change the physiological parameters of goats; therefore, its use is recommended in the diet of these animals.
Alet, Analía. I.; Basso, Sabrina; Delannoy, Marcela; Alet, Nicolás. A.; D'Arrigo, Mabel; Castellini, Horacio V.; Riquelme, Bibiana D.
2015-06-01
Drugs used during anesthesia could enhance microvascular flow disturbance, not only for their systemic cardiovascular actions but also by a direct effect on the microcirculation and in particular on hemorheology. This is particularly important in high-risk surgical patients such as those with vascular disease (diabetes, hypertension, etc.). Therefore, in this work we propose a set of innovative parameters obtained by digital analysis of microscopic images to study the in vitro hemorheological effect of propofol and vecuronium on red blood cell from type 2 diabetic patients compared to healthy donors. Obtained innovative parameters allow quantifying alterations in erythrocyte aggregation, which can increase the in vivo risk of microcapillary obstruction.
Varseev, E.
2017-11-01
The present work is dedicated to verification of numerical model in standard solver of open-source CFD code OpenFOAM for two-phase flow simulation and to determination of so-called “baseline” model parameters. Investigation of heterogeneous coolant flow parameters, which leads to abnormal friction increase of channel in two-phase adiabatic “water-gas” flows with low void fractions, presented.
A model on how to obtain data from botanical practitioners.
Elsas, Siegward M
2015-11-01
This paper addresses the challenge on how to obtain information from practitioners with experience in using medicinal plants. Collecting information on medicinal uses of plants is very challenging; since botanical remedies are used within the context of multiple differing medical systems, practitioners differ in training from Western physicians and scientists, and active ingredients of botanicals vary with preparation method, growth, and harvest conditions. A model on how useful data on safety and efficacy can be obtained from botanical practitioners is presented, based on methods developed by the association of anthroposophic physicians in Europe, a system of integrative medicine which includes the use of botanicals and is practiced mostly by medical doctors. Decades of experience by hundreds of practitioners are summarized and made accessible in a manual, which alphabetically lists the most commonly used botanicals and describes the most successful therapeutic experiences which could be confirmed by several of the contributing practitioners. This approach of continuous, multilingual systematic collection of successful therapeutic experiences within a community of practitioners with similar goals and a common therapeutic framework can be used not only for the training of successful future botanical practitioners, but also for helping to identify promising botanicals for scientific research and to further their development, and could support their official registration with governing bodies in countries of their use. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled "Botanicals for Epilepsy". Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Parameter estimation of variable-parameter nonlinear Muskingum model using excel solver
Kang, Ling; Zhou, Liwei
2018-02-01
Abstract . The Muskingum model is an effective flood routing technology in hydrology and water resources Engineering. With the development of optimization technology, more and more variable-parameter Muskingum models were presented to improve effectiveness of the Muskingum model in recent decades. A variable-parameter nonlinear Muskingum model (NVPNLMM) was proposed in this paper. According to the results of two real and frequently-used case studies by various models, the NVPNLMM could obtain better values of evaluation criteria, which are used to describe the superiority of the estimated outflows and compare the accuracies of flood routing using various models, and the optimal estimated outflows by the NVPNLMM were closer to the observed outflows than the ones by other models.
Processing parameters for ZnO-based thick film varistors obtained by screen printing
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
de la Rubia, M. A.
2006-06-01
Full Text Available Thick film varistors based on the ZnO-Bi2O3-Sb2O3 system have been prepared by screen printing on dense alumina substrates. Different processing parameters like the paste viscosity, burn out and sintering cycles, green and sintered thickness, have been studied to improve the processing of ZnO-based thick film varistors. Starting powders were pre-treated in two different ways in order to control both the Bi-rich liquid phase formation and the excessive volatilization of Bi2O3 during sintering due to the high area/volume ratio of the thick films. Significant changes have been observed in the electrical properties related to the different firing schedule and selection of the starting powders.
Se han preparado varistores basados en el sistema ZnO-Bi2O3-Sb2O3 en forma de lámina gruesa sobre sustratos de alúmina densa. Diferentes parámetros del procesamiento como la viscosidad de la pasta, los ciclos de calcinación y sinterización y el espesor en verde y sinterizado han sido estudiados para mejorar el procesamiento de los varistores basados en ZnO preparados en forma de lámina gruesa. Los polvos de partida fueron pretratados de dos formas diferentes con el objetivo de controlar la formación de la fase líquida rica en bismuto y la excesiva volatilización de Bi2O3 durante la sinterización debida a la alta relación área-volumen de las láminas gruesas. Se han observado cambios significativos en las propiedades eléctricas relacionadas con los diferentes ciclos de calcinado y con la selección de los polvos de partida.
The mobilisation model and parameter sensitivity
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Blok, B.M.
1993-12-01
In the PRObabillistic Safety Assessment (PROSA) of radioactive waste in a salt repository one of the nuclide release scenario's is the subrosion scenario. A new subrosion model SUBRECN has been developed. In this model the combined effect of a depth-dependent subrosion, glass dissolution, and salt rise has been taken into account. The subrosion model SUBRECN and the implementation of this model in the German computer program EMOS4 is presented. A new computer program PANTER is derived from EMOS4. PANTER models releases of radionuclides via subrosion from a disposal site in a salt pillar into the biosphere. For uncertainty and sensitivity analyses the new subrosion model Latin Hypercube Sampling has been used for determine the different values for the uncertain parameters. The influence of the uncertainty in the parameters on the dose calculations has been investigated by the following sensitivity techniques: Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficients, Partial Rank Correlation Coefficients, Standardised Rank Regression Coefficients, and the Smirnov Test. (orig./HP)
Lumped-parameter Model of a Bucket Foundation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Lars; Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, Morten
2009-01-01
efficient model that can be applied in aero-elastic codes for fast evaluation of the dynamic structural response of wind turbines. The target solutions, utilised for calibration of the lumped-parameter models, are obtained by a coupled finite-element/boundaryelement scheme in the frequency domain......, and the quality of the models are tested in the time and frequency domains. It is found that precise results are achieved by lumped-parameter models with two to four internal degrees of freedom per displacement or rotation of the foundation. Further, coupling between the horizontal sliding and rocking cannot...
Lumped-Parameter Models for Windturbine Footings on Layered Ground
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Lars
The design of modern wind turbines is typically based on lifetime analyses using aeroelastic codes. In this regard, the impedance of the foundations must be described accurately without increasing the overall size of the computationalmodel significantly. This may be obtained by the fitting...... of a lumped-parameter model to the results of a rigorous model or experimental results. In this paper, guidelines are given for the formulation of such lumped-parameter models and examples are given in which the models are utilised for the analysis of a wind turbine supported by a surface footing on a layered...
Source term modelling parameters for Project-90
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shaw, W.; Smith, G.; Worgan, K.; Hodgkinson, D.; Andersson, K.
1992-04-01
This document summarises the input parameters for the source term modelling within Project-90. In the first place, the parameters relate to the CALIBRE near-field code which was developed for the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate's (SKI) Project-90 reference repository safety assessment exercise. An attempt has been made to give best estimate values and, where appropriate, a range which is related to variations around base cases. It should be noted that the data sets contain amendments to those considered by KBS-3. In particular, a completely new set of inventory data has been incorporated. The information given here does not constitute a complete set of parameter values for all parts of the CALIBRE code. Rather, it gives the key parameter values which are used in the constituent models within CALIBRE and the associated studies. For example, the inventory data acts as an input to the calculation of the oxidant production rates, which influence the generation of a redox front. The same data is also an initial value data set for the radionuclide migration component of CALIBRE. Similarly, the geometrical parameters of the near-field are common to both sub-models. The principal common parameters are gathered here for ease of reference and avoidance of unnecessary duplication and transcription errors. (au)
Lumped-parameters equivalent circuit for condenser microphones modeling.
Esteves, Josué; Rufer, Libor; Ekeom, Didace; Basrour, Skandar
2017-10-01
This work presents a lumped parameters equivalent model of condenser microphone based on analogies between acoustic, mechanical, fluidic, and electrical domains. Parameters of the model were determined mainly through analytical relations and/or finite element method (FEM) simulations. Special attention was paid to the air gap modeling and to the use of proper boundary condition. Corresponding lumped-parameters were obtained as results of FEM simulations. Because of its simplicity, the model allows a fast simulation and is readily usable for microphone design. This work shows the validation of the equivalent circuit on three real cases of capacitive microphones, including both traditional and Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems structures. In all cases, it has been demonstrated that the sensitivity and other related data obtained from the equivalent circuit are in very good agreement with available measurement data.
Research Regarding Milk Quality Parameters Obtained in Eight Farms from Alba County
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
eugen claudiu Jurco
2013-10-01
Full Text Available The aim of this investigation was to determine the milk quality in terms of somatic cell count (SCC and total germ number (TGN obtained in eight farms from Alba county. The milk for evaluating quality was monthly harvested in sterile tubes and were examined at the Foundation for milk's quality control. Average value per farm of somatic cell count (SCC, the lowest values were on the farm SC Vitis Augusta SRL with 114670 SCC/ml, and the highest average values were recorded on the farm SC Zooagro SRL with 277330 SCC/ml. Average values per farm of the total germs number (TGN, the lowest values occurred in SC Biotera SRL with 15.83 x1000 germs/ml and SC Vitis Augusta SRL with 17.25 x1000 of germs/ml farms, and the highest average values were recorded in the farms of PFA Munteanu Cornel with 77.75 x1000 germs/ml and SC Zooagro SRL with 93.33 x1000 germs/ml.
Analysis of Modeling Parameters on Threaded Screws.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Vigil, Miquela S. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brake, Matthew Robert [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Vangoethem, Douglas [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
2015-06-01
Assembled mechanical systems often contain a large number of bolted connections. These bolted connections (joints) are integral aspects of the load path for structural dynamics, and, consequently, are paramount for calculating a structure's stiffness and energy dissipation prop- erties. However, analysts have not found the optimal method to model appropriately these bolted joints. The complexity of the screw geometry cause issues when generating a mesh of the model. This paper will explore different approaches to model a screw-substrate connec- tion. Model parameters such as mesh continuity, node alignment, wedge angles, and thread to body element size ratios are examined. The results of this study will give analysts a better understanding of the influences of these parameters and will aide in finding the optimal method to model bolted connections.
Determining extreme parameter correlation in ground water models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hill, Mary Cole; Østerby, Ole
2003-01-01
can go undetected even by experienced modelers. Extreme parameter correlation can be detected using parameter correlation coefficients, but their utility depends on the presence of sufficient, but not excessive, numerical imprecision of the sensitivities, such as round-off error. This work...... investigates the information that can be obtained from parameter correlation coefficients in the presence of different levels of numerical imprecision, and compares it to the information provided by an alternative method called the singular value decomposition (SVD). Results suggest that (1) calculated...... correlation coefficients with absolute values that round to 1.00 were good indicators of extreme parameter correlation, but smaller values were not necessarily good indicators of lack of correlation and resulting unique parameter estimates; (2) the SVD may be more difficult to interpret than parameter...
Model comparisons and genetic and environmental parameter ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
arc
Model comparisons and genetic and environmental parameter estimates of growth and the ... breeding strategies and for accurate breeding value estimation. The objectives ...... Sci. 23, 72-76. Van Wyk, J.B., Fair, M.D. & Cloete, S.W.P., 2003.
The rho-parameter in supersymmetric models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lim, C.S.; Inami, T.; Sakai, N.
1983-10-01
The electroweak rho-parameter is examined in a general class of supersymmetric models. Formulae are given for one-loop contributions to Δrho from scalar quarks and leptons, gauge-Higgs fermions and an extra doublet of Higgs scalars. Mass differences between members of isodoublet scalar quarks and leptons are constrained to be less than about 200 GeV. (author)
A lumped parameter model of plasma focus
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gonzalez, Jose H.; Florido, Pablo C.; Bruzzone, H.; Clausse, Alejandro
1999-01-01
A lumped parameter model to estimate neutron emission of a plasma focus (PF) device is developed. The dynamic of the current sheet is calculated using a snowplow model, and the neutron production with the thermal fusion cross section for a deuterium filling gas. The results were contrasted as a function of the filling pressure with experimental measurements of a 3.68 KJ Mather-type PF. (author)
Calibration of discrete element model parameters: soybeans
Ghodki, Bhupendra M.; Patel, Manish; Namdeo, Rohit; Carpenter, Gopal
2018-05-01
Discrete element method (DEM) simulations are broadly used to get an insight of flow characteristics of granular materials in complex particulate systems. DEM input parameters for a model are the critical prerequisite for an efficient simulation. Thus, the present investigation aims to determine DEM input parameters for Hertz-Mindlin model using soybeans as a granular material. To achieve this aim, widely acceptable calibration approach was used having standard box-type apparatus. Further, qualitative and quantitative findings such as particle profile, height of kernels retaining the acrylic wall, and angle of repose of experiments and numerical simulations were compared to get the parameters. The calibrated set of DEM input parameters includes the following (a) material properties: particle geometric mean diameter (6.24 mm); spherical shape; particle density (1220 kg m^{-3} ), and (b) interaction parameters such as particle-particle: coefficient of restitution (0.17); coefficient of static friction (0.26); coefficient of rolling friction (0.08), and particle-wall: coefficient of restitution (0.35); coefficient of static friction (0.30); coefficient of rolling friction (0.08). The results may adequately be used to simulate particle scale mechanics (grain commingling, flow/motion, forces, etc) of soybeans in post-harvest machinery and devices.
Parameter optimization for surface flux transport models
Whitbread, T.; Yeates, A. R.; Muñoz-Jaramillo, A.; Petrie, G. J. D.
2017-11-01
Accurate prediction of solar activity calls for precise calibration of solar cycle models. Consequently we aim to find optimal parameters for models which describe the physical processes on the solar surface, which in turn act as proxies for what occurs in the interior and provide source terms for coronal models. We use a genetic algorithm to optimize surface flux transport models using National Solar Observatory (NSO) magnetogram data for Solar Cycle 23. This is applied to both a 1D model that inserts new magnetic flux in the form of idealized bipolar magnetic regions, and also to a 2D model that assimilates specific shapes of real active regions. The genetic algorithm searches for parameter sets (meridional flow speed and profile, supergranular diffusivity, initial magnetic field, and radial decay time) that produce the best fit between observed and simulated butterfly diagrams, weighted by a latitude-dependent error structure which reflects uncertainty in observations. Due to the easily adaptable nature of the 2D model, the optimization process is repeated for Cycles 21, 22, and 24 in order to analyse cycle-to-cycle variation of the optimal solution. We find that the ranges and optimal solutions for the various regimes are in reasonable agreement with results from the literature, both theoretical and observational. The optimal meridional flow profiles for each regime are almost entirely within observational bounds determined by magnetic feature tracking, with the 2D model being able to accommodate the mean observed profile more successfully. Differences between models appear to be important in deciding values for the diffusive and decay terms. In like fashion, differences in the behaviours of different solar cycles lead to contrasts in parameters defining the meridional flow and initial field strength.
Uncertainty in dual permeability model parameters for structured soils
Arora, B.; Mohanty, B. P.; McGuire, J. T.
2012-01-01
Successful application of dual permeability models (DPM) to predict contaminant transport is contingent upon measured or inversely estimated soil hydraulic and solute transport parameters. The difficulty in unique identification of parameters for the additional macropore- and matrix-macropore interface regions, and knowledge about requisite experimental data for DPM has not been resolved to date. Therefore, this study quantifies uncertainty in dual permeability model parameters of experimental soil columns with different macropore distributions (single macropore, and low- and high-density multiple macropores). Uncertainty evaluation is conducted using adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (AMCMC) and conventional Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithms while assuming 10 out of 17 parameters to be uncertain or random. Results indicate that AMCMC resolves parameter correlations and exhibits fast convergence for all DPM parameters while MH displays large posterior correlations for various parameters. This study demonstrates that the choice of parameter sampling algorithms is paramount in obtaining unique DPM parameters when information on covariance structure is lacking, or else additional information on parameter correlations must be supplied to resolve the problem of equifinality of DPM parameters. This study also highlights the placement and significance of matrix-macropore interface in flow experiments of soil columns with different macropore densities. Histograms for certain soil hydraulic parameters display tri-modal characteristics implying that macropores are drained first followed by the interface region and then by pores of the matrix domain in drainage experiments. Results indicate that hydraulic properties and behavior of the matrix-macropore interface is not only a function of saturated hydraulic conductivity of the macroporematrix interface (Ksa) and macropore tortuosity (lf) but also of other parameters of the matrix and macropore domains.
Constant-parameter capture-recapture models
Brownie, C.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.
1986-01-01
Jolly (1982, Biometrics 38, 301-321) presented modifications of the Jolly-Seber model for capture-recapture data, which assume constant survival and/or capture rates. Where appropriate, because of the reduced number of parameters, these models lead to more efficient estimators than the Jolly-Seber model. The tests to compare models given by Jolly do not make complete use of the data, and we present here the appropriate modifications, and also indicate how to carry out goodness-of-fit tests which utilize individual capture history information. We also describe analogous models for the case where young and adult animals are tagged. The availability of computer programs to perform the analysis is noted, and examples are given using output from these programs.
Condition Parameter Modeling for Anomaly Detection in Wind Turbines
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yonglong Yan
2014-05-01
Full Text Available Data collected from the supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA system, used widely in wind farms to obtain operational and condition information about wind turbines (WTs, is of important significance for anomaly detection in wind turbines. The paper presents a novel model for wind turbine anomaly detection mainly based on SCADA data and a back-propagation neural network (BPNN for automatic selection of the condition parameters. The SCADA data sets are determined through analysis of the cumulative probability distribution of wind speed and the relationship between output power and wind speed. The automatic BPNN-based parameter selection is for reduction of redundant parameters for anomaly detection in wind turbines. Through investigation of cases of WT faults, the validity of the automatic parameter selection-based model for WT anomaly detection is verified.
Ground level enhancement (GLE) energy spectrum parameters model
Qin, G.; Wu, S.
2017-12-01
We study the ground level enhancement (GLE) events in solar cycle 23 with the four energy spectra parameters, the normalization parameter C, low-energy power-law slope γ 1, high-energy power-law slope γ 2, and break energy E0, obtained by Mewaldt et al. 2012 who fit the observations to the double power-law equation. we divide the GLEs into two groups, one with strong acceleration by interplanetary (IP) shocks and another one without strong acceleration according to the condition of solar eruptions. We next fit the four parameters with solar event conditions to get models of the parameters for the two groups of GLEs separately. So that we would establish a model of energy spectrum for GLEs for the future space weather prediction.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Souza, R.R. de; Pereira, A.S.; Sousa, V.C.; Egea, J.R.J.
2012-01-01
The family of compounds layered-type perovskite, know as Aurivilius presents great alternative not only by the absence of lead in the composition, but because the polarization retention, replacing PZT in FeRAM devices. The strontium bismuth tantalate (SrBi 2 Ta 2 O 9 ) or SBT is ferroelectric material that has attracted considerable interest, since it has high fatigue resistance, supporting high hysteresis loops, with the change in polarization.Checking polarization and depolarization currents stimulated by temperature it is possible to obtain, for example, information about the nature of charges and about the activation energy for the process of dielectric relaxation. For analysis of ferroelectric properties of this compound, it is essential to obtain specimens with a relative density around 95%. Thus, it is important the optimization of the sintering process in order to obtain a ceramic body with a high densification. The influence of sintering parameters to obtain SrBi 2 Ta 2 O 9 in the polarization properties and in the microstructure of sintered samples was investigated by thermostimulated currents and electronic microscopy, respectively. Results show that variation of these parameters may cause changes in the ferroelectric properties of the material. (author)
A lumped parameter, low dimension model of heat exchanger
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kanoh, Hideaki; Furushoo, Junji; Masubuchi, Masami
1980-01-01
This paper reports on the results of investigation of the distributed parameter model, the difference model, and the model of the method of weighted residuals for heat exchangers. By the method of weighted residuals (MWR), the opposite flow heat exchanger system is approximated by low dimension, lumped parameter model. By assuming constant specific heat, constant density, the same form of tube cross-section, the same form of the surface of heat exchange, uniform flow velocity, the linear relation of heat transfer to flow velocity, liquid heat carrier, and the thermal insulation of liquid from outside, fundamental equations are obtained. The experimental apparatus was made of acrylic resin. The response of the temperature at the exit of first liquid to the variation of the flow rate of second liquid was measured and compared with the models. The MWR model shows good approximation for the low frequency region, and as the number of division increases, good approximation spreads to higher frequency region. (Kato, T.)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Murase, Kenya; Nanjo, Takafumi; Ii, Satoshi; Miyazaki, Shohei; Hirata, Masaaki; Sugawara, Yoshifumi; Kudo, Masayuki; Sasaki, Kousuke; Mochizuki, Teruhito
2005-01-01
The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of x-ray tube current on the accuracy of cerebral perfusion parameters obtained by CT perfusion studies using multi-detector row CT (MDCT). Following the standard CT perfusion study protocol, continuous (cine) scans (1 s/rotation x 60 s) consisting of four 5 mm thick contiguous slices were performed using an MDCT scanner with a tube voltage of 80 kVp and a tube current of 200 mA. We generated the simulated images with tube currents of 50 mA, 100 mA and 150 mA by adding the corresponding noise to the raw scan data of the original image acquired above using a noise simulation tool. From the original and simulated images, we generated the functional images of cerebral blood flow (CBF), cerebral blood volume (CBV) and mean transit time (MTT) in seven patients with cerebrovascular disease, and compared the correlation coefficients (CCs) between the perfusion parameter values obtained from the original and simulated images. The coefficients of variation (CVs) in the white matter were also compared. The CC values deteriorated with decreasing tube current. There was a significant difference between 50 mA and 100 mA for all perfusion parameters. The CV values increased with decreasing tube current. There were significant differences between 50 mA and 100 mA and between 100 mA and 150 mA for CBF. For CBV and MTT, there was also a significant difference between 150 mA and 200 mA. This study will be useful for understanding the effect of x-ray tube current on the accuracy of cerebral perfusion parameters obtained by CT perfusion studies using MDCT, and for selecting the tube current
Modelling tourists arrival using time varying parameter
Suciptawati, P.; Sukarsa, K. G.; Kencana, Eka N.
2017-06-01
The importance of tourism and its related sectors to support economic development and poverty reduction in many countries increase researchers’ attentions to study and model tourists’ arrival. This work is aimed to demonstrate time varying parameter (TVP) technique to model the arrival of Korean’s tourists to Bali. The number of Korean tourists whom visiting Bali for period January 2010 to December 2015 were used to model the number of Korean’s tourists to Bali (KOR) as dependent variable. The predictors are the exchange rate of Won to IDR (WON), the inflation rate in Korea (INFKR), and the inflation rate in Indonesia (INFID). Observing tourists visit to Bali tend to fluctuate by their nationality, then the model was built by applying TVP and its parameters were approximated using Kalman Filter algorithm. The results showed all of predictor variables (WON, INFKR, INFID) significantly affect KOR. For in-sample and out-of-sample forecast with ARIMA’s forecasted values for the predictors, TVP model gave mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) as much as 11.24 percent and 12.86 percent, respectively.
Electro-optical parameters of bond polarizability model for aluminosilicates.
Smirnov, Konstantin S; Bougeard, Daniel; Tandon, Poonam
2006-04-06
Electro-optical parameters (EOPs) of bond polarizability model (BPM) for aluminosilicate structures were derived from quantum-chemical DFT calculations of molecular models. The tensor of molecular polarizability and the derivatives of the tensor with respect to the bond length are well reproduced with the BPM, and the EOPs obtained are in a fair agreement with available experimental data. The parameters derived were found to be transferable to larger molecules. This finding suggests that the procedure used can be applied to systems with partially ionic chemical bonds. The transferability of the parameters to periodic systems was tested in molecular dynamics simulation of the polarized Raman spectra of alpha-quartz. It appeared that the molecular Si-O bond EOPs failed to reproduce the intensity of peaks in the spectra. This limitation is due to large values of the longitudinal components of the bond polarizability and its derivative found in the molecular calculations as compared to those obtained from periodic DFT calculations of crystalline silica polymorphs by Umari et al. (Phys. Rev. B 2001, 63, 094305). It is supposed that the electric field of the solid is responsible for the difference of the parameters. Nevertheless, the EOPs obtained can be used as an initial set of parameters for calculations of polarizability related characteristics of relevant systems in the framework of BPM.
Effective properties of a viscoplastic constitutive model obtained by homogenisation
Sluis, van der O.; Schreurs, P.J.G.; Meijer, H.E.H.
1999-01-01
Heterogeneous materials are used more and more frequent due to their enhanced mechanical properties. If the relation between the microscopic deformation and the macroscopic mechanical behaviour can be obtained, it can be used to design new materials with desired properties such as high strength,
Four-parameter analytical local model potential for atoms
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fei, Yu; Jiu-Xun, Sun; Rong-Gang, Tian; Wei, Yang
2009-01-01
Analytical local model potential for modeling the interaction in an atom reduces the computational effort in electronic structure calculations significantly. A new four-parameter analytical local model potential is proposed for atoms Li through Lr, and the values of four parameters are shell-independent and obtained by fitting the results of X a method. At the same time, the energy eigenvalues, the radial wave functions and the total energies of electrons are obtained by solving the radial Schrödinger equation with a new form of potential function by Numerov's numerical method. The results show that our new form of potential function is suitable for high, medium and low Z atoms. A comparison among the new potential function and other analytical potential functions shows the greater flexibility and greater accuracy of the present new potential function. (atomic and molecular physics)
Gandolfi, S.; Poluzzi, L.; Tavasci, L.
2012-12-01
Precise Point Positioning (PPP) is one of the possible approaches for GNSS data processing. As known this technique is faster and more flexible compared to the others which are based on a differenced approach and constitute a reliable methods for accurate positioning of remote GNSS stations, even in some remote area such as Antarctica. Until few years ago one of the major limits of the method was the impossibility to resolve the ambiguity as integer but nowadays many methods are available to resolve this aspect. The first software package permitting a PPP solution was the GIPSY OASIS realized, developed and maintained by JPL (NASA). JPL produce also orbits and files ready to be used with GIPSY. Recently, using these products came possible to resolve ambiguities improving the stability of solutions. PPP permit to estimate position into the reference frame of the orbits (IGS) and when coordinate in others reference frames, such al ITRF, are needed is necessary to apply a transformation. Within his products JPL offer, for each day, a global 7 parameter transformation that permit to locate the survey into the ITRF RF. In some cases it's also possible to create a costumed process and obtain analogous parameters using local/regional reference network of stations which coordinates are available also in the desired reference frame. In this work some tests on accuracy has been carried out comparing different PPP solutions obtained using the same software packages (GIPSY) but considering the ambiguity resolution, the global and regional transformation parameters. In particular two test area have been considered, first one located in Antarctica and the second one in Italy. Aim of the work is the evaluation of the impact of ambiguity resolution and the use of local/regional transformation parameter in the final solutions. Tests shown how the ambiguity resolution improve the precision, especially in the EAST component with a scattering reduction about 8%. And the use of global
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rocha, J.C. da; Greca, M.C.
1989-01-01
The influence of main parameters involved in the method of silicon nitride attainment by carbothermal reduction of silica followed by nitridation were studied in isothermal experiments of fine powder mixtures of silica and graphite in a nitrogen gas flow. The time, temperature, rate C/SiO 2 and flow of nitrogen were varied since they are the main parameters involved in this kind of reaction. The products of reaction were analysed by X-ray diffraction to identify the crystalline phases and as a result was obtained the nucleation of silicon nitride phase. Meanwhile, corroborating prior results, we verified to be difficult the progress of the reaction and the inhibition of formation of silicon carbide phase, the last one being associated to the formation of silicon nitride phase due to thermodynamic matters [pt
Vukić, Dajana V; Vukić, Vladimir R; Milanović, Spasenija D; Ilicić, Mirela D; Kanurić, Katarina G
2018-06-01
Tree different fermented dairy products obtained by conventional and non-conventional starter cultures were investigated in this paper. Textural and rheological characteristics as well as chemical composition during 21 days of storage were analysed and subsequent data processing was performed by principal component analysis. The analysis of samples` flow behaviour was focused on their time dependent properties. Parameters of Power law model described flow behaviour of samples depended on used starter culture and days of storage. The Power law model was applied successfully to describe the flow of the fermented milk, which had characteristics of shear thinning and non-Newtonian fluid behaviour.
The lumped parameter model for fuel pins
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Liu, W S [Ontario Hydro, Toronto, ON (Canada)
1996-12-31
The use of a lumped fuel-pin model in a thermal-hydraulic code is advantageous because of computational simplicity and efficiency. The model uses an averaging approach over the fuel cross section and makes some simplifying assumptions to describe the transient equations for the averaged fuel, fuel centerline and sheath temperatures. It is shown that by introducing a factor in the effective fuel conductivity, the analytical solution of the mean fuel temperature can be modified to simulate the effects of the flux depression in the heat generation rate and the variation in fuel thermal conductivity. The simplified analytical method used in the transient equation is presented. The accuracy of the lumped parameter model has been compared with the results from the finite difference method. (author). 4 refs., 2 tabs., 4 figs.
Modeling of Parameters of Subcritical Assembly SAD
Petrochenkov, S; Puzynin, I
2005-01-01
The accepted conceptual design of the experimental Subcritical Assembly in Dubna (SAD) is based on the MOX core with a nominal unit capacity of 25 kW (thermal). This corresponds to the multiplication coefficient $k_{\\rm eff} =0.95$ and accelerator beam power 1 kW. A subcritical assembly driven with the existing 660 MeV proton accelerator at the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research has been modelled in order to make choice of the optimal parameters for the future experiments. The Monte Carlo method was used to simulate neutron spectra, energy deposition and doses calculations. Some of the calculation results are presented in the paper.
Parameter estimation in fractional diffusion models
Kubilius, Kęstutis; Ralchenko, Kostiantyn
2017-01-01
This book is devoted to parameter estimation in diffusion models involving fractional Brownian motion and related processes. For many years now, standard Brownian motion has been (and still remains) a popular model of randomness used to investigate processes in the natural sciences, financial markets, and the economy. The substantial limitation in the use of stochastic diffusion models with Brownian motion is due to the fact that the motion has independent increments, and, therefore, the random noise it generates is “white,” i.e., uncorrelated. However, many processes in the natural sciences, computer networks and financial markets have long-term or short-term dependences, i.e., the correlations of random noise in these processes are non-zero, and slowly or rapidly decrease with time. In particular, models of financial markets demonstrate various kinds of memory and usually this memory is modeled by fractional Brownian diffusion. Therefore, the book constructs diffusion models with memory and provides s...
Identifiability and error minimization of receptor model parameters with PET
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Delforge, J.; Syrota, A.; Mazoyer, B.M.
1989-01-01
The identifiability problem and the general framework for experimental design optimization are presented. The methodology is applied to the problem of the receptor-ligand model parameter estimation with dynamic positron emission tomography data. The first attempts to identify the model parameters from data obtained with a single tracer injection led to disappointing numerical results. The possibility of improving parameter estimation using a new experimental design combining an injection of the labelled ligand and an injection of the cold ligand (displacement experiment) has been investigated. However, this second protocol led to two very different numerical solutions and it was necessary to demonstrate which solution was biologically valid. This has been possible by using a third protocol including both a displacement and a co-injection experiment. (authors). 16 refs.; 14 figs
Moose models with vanishing S parameter
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Casalbuoni, R.; De Curtis, S.; Dominici, D.
2004-01-01
In the linear moose framework, which naturally emerges in deconstruction models, we show that there is a unique solution for the vanishing of the S parameter at the lowest order in the weak interactions. We consider an effective gauge theory based on K SU(2) gauge groups, K+1 chiral fields, and electroweak groups SU(2) L and U(1) Y at the ends of the chain of the moose. S vanishes when a link in the moose chain is cut. As a consequence one has to introduce a dynamical nonlocal field connecting the two ends of the moose. Then the model acquires an additional custodial symmetry which protects this result. We examine also the possibility of a strong suppression of S through an exponential behavior of the link couplings as suggested by the Randall Sundrum metric
Model atmospheres and parameters of central stars of planetary nebulae
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Patriarchi, P.; Cerruti-sola, M.; Perinotto, M.
1989-01-01
Non-LTE hydrogen and helium model atmospheres have been obtained for temperatures and gravities relevant to the central stars of planetary nebulae. Low-resolution and high-resolution observations obtained by the IUE satellite have been used along with optical data to determine Zanstra temperatures of the central stars of NGC 1535, NGC 6210, NGC 7009, IC 418, and IC 4593. Comparison of the observed stellar continuum of these stars with theoretical results allowed further information on the stellar temperature to be derived. The final temperatures are used to calculate accurate stellar parameters. 62 refs
Model parameter learning using Kullback-Leibler divergence
Lin, Chungwei; Marks, Tim K.; Pajovic, Milutin; Watanabe, Shinji; Tung, Chih-kuan
2018-02-01
In this paper, we address the following problem: For a given set of spin configurations whose probability distribution is of the Boltzmann type, how do we determine the model coupling parameters? We demonstrate that directly minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence is an efficient method. We test this method against the Ising and XY models on the one-dimensional (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) lattices, and provide two estimators to quantify the model quality. We apply this method to two types of problems. First, we apply it to the real-space renormalization group (RG). We find that the obtained RG flow is sufficiently good for determining the phase boundary (within 1% of the exact result) and the critical point, but not accurate enough for critical exponents. The proposed method provides a simple way to numerically estimate amplitudes of the interactions typically truncated in the real-space RG procedure. Second, we apply this method to the dynamical system composed of self-propelled particles, where we extract the parameter of a statistical model (a generalized XY model) from a dynamical system described by the Viscek model. We are able to obtain reasonable coupling values corresponding to different noise strengths of the Viscek model. Our method is thus able to provide quantitative analysis of dynamical systems composed of self-propelled particles.
da Silveira, Christian L; Mazutti, Marcio A; Salau, Nina P G
2016-07-08
Process modeling can lead to of advantages such as helping in process control, reducing process costs and product quality improvement. This work proposes a solid-state fermentation distributed parameter model composed by seven differential equations with seventeen parameters to represent the process. Also, parameters estimation with a parameters identifyability analysis (PIA) is performed to build an accurate model with optimum parameters. Statistical tests were made to verify the model accuracy with the estimated parameters considering different assumptions. The results have shown that the model assuming substrate inhibition better represents the process. It was also shown that eight from the seventeen original model parameters were nonidentifiable and better results were obtained with the removal of these parameters from the estimation procedure. Therefore, PIA can be useful to estimation procedure, since it may reduce the number of parameters that can be evaluated. Further, PIA improved the model results, showing to be an important procedure to be taken. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 32:905-917, 2016. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers.
Models for setting ATM parameter values
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Blaabjerg, Søren; Gravey, A.; Romæuf, L.
1996-01-01
essential to set traffic characteristic values that are relevant to the considered cell stream, and that ensure that the amount of non-conforming traffic is small. Using a queueing model representation for the GCRA formalism, several methods are available for choosing the traffic characteristics. This paper......In ATM networks, a user should negotiate at connection set-up a traffic contract which includes traffic characteristics and requested QoS. The traffic characteristics currently considered are the Peak Cell Rate, the Sustainable Cell Rate, the Intrinsic Burst Tolerance and the Cell Delay Variation...... (CDV) tolerance(s). The values taken by these traffic parameters characterize the so-called ''Worst Case Traffic'' that is used by CAC procedures for accepting a new connection and allocating resources to it. Conformance to the negotiated traffic characteristics is defined, at the ingress User...
Updated climatological model predictions of ionospheric and HF propagation parameters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Reilly, M.H.; Rhoads, F.J.; Goodman, J.M.; Singh, M.
1991-01-01
The prediction performances of several climatological models, including the ionospheric conductivity and electron density model, RADAR C, and Ionospheric Communications Analysis and Predictions Program, are evaluated for different regions and sunspot number inputs. Particular attention is given to the near-real-time (NRT) predictions associated with single-station updates. It is shown that a dramatic improvement can be obtained by using single-station ionospheric data to update the driving parameters for an ionospheric model for NRT predictions of f(0)F2 and other ionospheric and HF circuit parameters. For middle latitudes, the improvement extends out thousands of kilometers from the update point to points of comparable corrected geomagnetic latitude. 10 refs
Statistical approach for uncertainty quantification of experimental modal model parameters
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Luczak, M.; Peeters, B.; Kahsin, M.
2014-01-01
Composite materials are widely used in manufacture of aerospace and wind energy structural components. These load carrying structures are subjected to dynamic time-varying loading conditions. Robust structural dynamics identification procedure impose tight constraints on the quality of modal models...... represent different complexity levels ranging from coupon, through sub-component up to fully assembled aerospace and wind energy structural components made of composite materials. The proposed method is demonstrated on two application cases of a small and large wind turbine blade........ This paper aims at a systematic approach for uncertainty quantification of the parameters of the modal models estimated from experimentally obtained data. Statistical analysis of modal parameters is implemented to derive an assessment of the entire modal model uncertainty measure. Investigated structures...
Revised Parameters for the AMOEBA Polarizable Atomic Multipole Water Model
Pande, Vijay S.; Head-Gordon, Teresa; Ponder, Jay W.
2016-01-01
A set of improved parameters for the AMOEBA polarizable atomic multipole water model is developed. The protocol uses an automated procedure, ForceBalance, to adjust model parameters to enforce agreement with ab initio-derived results for water clusters and experimentally obtained data for a variety of liquid phase properties across a broad temperature range. The values reported here for the new AMOEBA14 water model represent a substantial improvement over the previous AMOEBA03 model. The new AMOEBA14 water model accurately predicts the temperature of maximum density and qualitatively matches the experimental density curve across temperatures ranging from 249 K to 373 K. Excellent agreement is observed for the AMOEBA14 model in comparison to a variety of experimental properties as a function of temperature, including the 2nd virial coefficient, enthalpy of vaporization, isothermal compressibility, thermal expansion coefficient and dielectric constant. The viscosity, self-diffusion constant and surface tension are also well reproduced. In comparison to high-level ab initio results for clusters of 2 to 20 water molecules, the AMOEBA14 model yields results similar to the AMOEBA03 and the direct polarization iAMOEBA models. With advances in computing power, calibration data, and optimization techniques, we recommend the use of the AMOEBA14 water model for future studies employing a polarizable water model. PMID:25683601
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lia Duarte
2018-03-01
Full Text Available Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV imagery allows for a new way of obtaining geographic information. In this work, a Geographical Information System (GIS open source application was developed in QGIS software that estimates several parameters and metrics on tree crown through image analysis techniques (image segmentation and image classification and fractal analysis. The metrics that have been estimated were: area, perimeter, number of trees, distance between trees, and a missing tree check. This methodology was tested on three different plantations: olive, eucalyptus, and vineyard. The application developed is free, open source and takes advantage of QGIS integration with external software. Several tools available from Orfeo Toolbox and Geographic Resources Analysis Support System (GRASS GIS were employed to generate a classified raster image which allows calculating the metrics referred before. The application was developed in the Python 2.7 language. Also, some functions, modules, and classes from the QGIS Application Programming Interface (API and PyQt4 API were used. This new plugin is a valuable tool, which allowed for automatizing several parameters and metrics on tree crown using GIS analysis tools, while considering data acquired by UAV.
Application of parameters space analysis tools for empirical model validation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Paloma del Barrio, E. [LEPT-ENSAM UMR 8508, Talence (France); Guyon, G. [Electricite de France, Moret-sur-Loing (France)
2004-01-01
A new methodology for empirical model validation has been proposed in the framework of the Task 22 (Building Energy Analysis Tools) of the International Energy Agency. It involves two main steps: checking model validity and diagnosis. Both steps, as well as the underlying methods, have been presented in the first part of the paper. In this part, they are applied for testing modelling hypothesis in the framework of the thermal analysis of an actual building. Sensitivity analysis tools have been first used to identify the parts of the model that can be really tested on the available data. A preliminary diagnosis is then supplied by principal components analysis. Useful information for model behaviour improvement has been finally obtained by optimisation techniques. This example of application shows how model parameters space analysis is a powerful tool for empirical validation. In particular, diagnosis possibilities are largely increased in comparison with residuals analysis techniques. (author)
Parameter Estimation of Partial Differential Equation Models
Xun, Xiaolei; Cao, Jiguo; Mallick, Bani; Maity, Arnab; Carroll, Raymond J.
2013-01-01
PDEs used in practice have no analytic solutions, and can only be solved with numerical methods. Currently, methods for estimating PDE parameters require repeatedly solving PDEs numerically under thousands of candidate parameter values, and thus
Model parameters estimation and sensitivity by genetic algorithms
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Marseguerra, Marzio; Zio, Enrico; Podofillini, Luca
2003-01-01
In this paper we illustrate the possibility of extracting qualitative information on the importance of the parameters of a model in the course of a Genetic Algorithms (GAs) optimization procedure for the estimation of such parameters. The Genetic Algorithms' search of the optimal solution is performed according to procedures that resemble those of natural selection and genetics: an initial population of alternative solutions evolves within the search space through the four fundamental operations of parent selection, crossover, replacement, and mutation. During the search, the algorithm examines a large amount of solution points which possibly carries relevant information on the underlying model characteristics. A possible utilization of this information amounts to create and update an archive with the set of best solutions found at each generation and then to analyze the evolution of the statistics of the archive along the successive generations. From this analysis one can retrieve information regarding the speed of convergence and stabilization of the different control (decision) variables of the optimization problem. In this work we analyze the evolution strategy followed by a GA in its search for the optimal solution with the aim of extracting information on the importance of the control (decision) variables of the optimization with respect to the sensitivity of the objective function. The study refers to a GA search for optimal estimates of the effective parameters in a lumped nuclear reactor model of literature. The supporting observation is that, as most optimization procedures do, the GA search evolves towards convergence in such a way to stabilize first the most important parameters of the model and later those which influence little the model outputs. In this sense, besides estimating efficiently the parameters values, the optimization approach also allows us to provide a qualitative ranking of their importance in contributing to the model output. The
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sanchez Borroto, Yisel; Piloto Rodriguez, Ramon; Goyos Perez, Leonardo
2011-01-01
The objective of the present work is to obtain a physical-mathematical model that establishes a relationship between the cetane index of biofuels obtained from different vegetable oils and its composition of essential fatty acid. This model is based on experimental data obtained by the authors of the present work and an experimental data reported by different extracted authors of indexed databases. The adjustment of the coefficients of the model is based on the obtaining of residual minima in the capacity of prediction of the model. Starting from these results it is established a very useful tool for the determination of such an important parameter for the fuel diesel as it is the cetane index obtained from an analysis of chemical composition and not obtained from tests in engines banks, to save time and economic resources. (author)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cartier, Lysian; Auberdiac, Pierre; Khodri, Mustapha; Malkoun, Nadia [Departement de Radiotherapie, Institut de Cancerologie de la Loire, St-Priest en Jarez (France); Chargari, Cyrus [Service d' Oncologie Radiotherapie, Hopital d' Instruction des Armees du Val-de-Grace, Paris (France); Thorin, Julie [Departement de Sante Publique, Unite de Statistique, Institut de Cancerologie de la Loire, St-Priest en Jarez (France); Melis, Adrien [Departement d' Oncologie Medicale, Institut de Cancerologie de la Loire, St-Priest en Jarez (France); Talabard, Jean-Noeel; Laroche, Guy de [Departement de Radiotherapie, Institut de Cancerologie de la Loire, St-Priest en Jarez (France); Fournel, Pierre [Departement d' Oncologie Medicale, Institut de Cancerologie de la Loire, St-Priest en Jarez (France); Tiffet, Olivier [Service de Chirurgie Thoracique, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Saint Etienne, Saint Etienne (France); Schmitt, Thierry [Departement de Radiotherapie, Institut de Cancerologie de la Loire, St-Priest en Jarez (France); and others
2012-07-01
The purpose of this study was to analyze and revisit toxicity related to chest chemoradiotherapy and to correlate these side effects with dosimetric parameters obtained using analytical anisotropic algorithm (AAA) in locally unresectable advanced lung cancer. We retrospectively analyzed data from 47 lung cancer patients between 2005 and 2008. All received conformal 3D radiotherapy using high-energy linear accelerator plus concomitant chemotherapy. All treatment planning data were transferred into Eclipse 8.05 (Varian Medical Systems, Palo Alto, CA) and dosimetric calculations were performed using AAA. Thirty-three patients (70.2%) developed acute pneumopathy after radiotherapy (grades 1 and 2). One patient (2.1%) presented with grade 3 pneumopathy. Thirty-one (66%) presented with grades 1-2 lung fibrosis, and 1 patient presented with grade 3 lung fibrosis. Thirty-four patients (72.3%) developed grade 1-2 acute oesophagic toxicity. Four patients (8.5%) presented with grades 3 and 4 dysphagia, necessitating prolonged parenteral nutrition. Median prescribed dose was 64 Gy (range 50-74) with conventional fractionation (2 Gy per fraction). Dose-volume constraints were respected with a median V20 of 23.5% (maximum 34%) and a median V30 of 17% (maximum 25%). The median dose delivered to healthy contralateral lung was 13.1 Gy (maximum 18.1 Gy). At univariate analysis, larger planning target volume and V20 were significantly associated with the probability of grade {>=}2 radiation-induced pneumopathy (p = 0.022 and p = 0.017, respectively). No relation between oesophagic toxicity and clinical/dosimetric parameters could be established. Using AAA, the present results confirm the predictive value of the V20 for lung toxicity as already demonstrated with the conventional pencil beam convolution approach.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiao-meng Song
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Parameter identification, model calibration, and uncertainty quantification are important steps in the model-building process, and are necessary for obtaining credible results and valuable information. Sensitivity analysis of hydrological model is a key step in model uncertainty quantification, which can identify the dominant parameters, reduce the model calibration uncertainty, and enhance the model optimization efficiency. There are, however, some shortcomings in classical approaches, including the long duration of time and high computation cost required to quantitatively assess the sensitivity of a multiple-parameter hydrological model. For this reason, a two-step statistical evaluation framework using global techniques is presented. It is based on (1 a screening method (Morris for qualitative ranking of parameters, and (2 a variance-based method integrated with a meta-model for quantitative sensitivity analysis, i.e., the Sobol method integrated with the response surface model (RSMSobol. First, the Morris screening method was used to qualitatively identify the parameters' sensitivity, and then ten parameters were selected to quantify the sensitivity indices. Subsequently, the RSMSobol method was used to quantify the sensitivity, i.e., the first-order and total sensitivity indices based on the response surface model (RSM were calculated. The RSMSobol method can not only quantify the sensitivity, but also reduce the computational cost, with good accuracy compared to the classical approaches. This approach will be effective and reliable in the global sensitivity analysis of a complex large-scale distributed hydrological model.
Akbarnejad, Shahin; Saffari Pour, Mohsen; Jonsson, Lage Tord Ingemar; Jönsson, Pӓr Göran
2017-02-01
Ceramic foam filters (CFFs) are used to remove solid particles and inclusions from molten metal. In general, molten metal which is poured on the top of a CFF needs to reach a certain height to build the required pressure (metal head) to prime the filter. To estimate the required metal head, it is necessary to obtain permeability coefficients using permeametry experiments. It has been mentioned in the literature that to avoid fluid bypassing, during permeametry, samples need to be sealed. However, the effect of fluid bypassing on the experimentally obtained pressure gradients seems not to be explored. Therefore, in this research, the focus was on studying the effect of fluid bypassing on the experimentally obtained pressure gradients as well as the empirically obtained Darcy and non-Darcy permeability coefficients. Specifically, the aim of the research was to investigate the effect of fluid bypassing on the liquid permeability of 30, 50, and 80 pores per inch (PPI) commercial alumina CFFs. In addition, the experimental data were compared to the numerically modeled findings. Both studies showed that no sealing results in extremely poor estimates of the pressure gradients and Darcy and non-Darcy permeability coefficients for all studied filters. The average deviations between the pressure gradients of the sealed and unsealed 30, 50, and 80 PPI samples were calculated to be 57.2, 56.8, and 61.3 pct. The deviations between the Darcy coefficients of the sealed and unsealed 30, 50, and 80 PPI samples found to be 9, 20, and 31 pct. The deviations between the non-Darcy coefficients of the sealed and unsealed 30, 50, and 80 PPI samples were calculated to be 59, 58, and 63 pct.
Peters, B. C., Jr.; Walker, H. F.
1976-01-01
The problem of obtaining numerically maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions is addressed. In recent literature, a certain successive approximations procedure, based on the likelihood equations, is shown empirically to be effective in numerically approximating such maximum-likelihood estimates; however, the reliability of this procedure was not established theoretically. Here, a general iterative procedure is introduced, of the generalized steepest-ascent (deflected-gradient) type, which is just the procedure known in the literature when the step-size is taken to be 1. With probability 1 as the sample size grows large, it is shown that this procedure converges locally to the strongly consistent maximum-likelihood estimate whenever the step-size lies between 0 and 2. The step-size which yields optimal local convergence rates for large samples is determined in a sense by the separation of the component normal densities and is bounded below by a number between 1 and 2.
Peters, B. C., Jr.; Walker, H. F.
1978-01-01
This paper addresses the problem of obtaining numerically maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions. In recent literature, a certain successive-approximations procedure, based on the likelihood equations, was shown empirically to be effective in numerically approximating such maximum-likelihood estimates; however, the reliability of this procedure was not established theoretically. Here, we introduce a general iterative procedure, of the generalized steepest-ascent (deflected-gradient) type, which is just the procedure known in the literature when the step-size is taken to be 1. We show that, with probability 1 as the sample size grows large, this procedure converges locally to the strongly consistent maximum-likelihood estimate whenever the step-size lies between 0 and 2. We also show that the step-size which yields optimal local convergence rates for large samples is determined in a sense by the 'separation' of the component normal densities and is bounded below by a number between 1 and 2.
Kröner, Frieder; Elsäßer, Dennis; Hubbuch, Jürgen
2013-11-29
The accelerating growth of the market for biopharmaceutical proteins, the market entry of biosimilars and the growing interest in new, more complex molecules constantly pose new challenges for bioseparation process development. In the presented work we demonstrate the application of a multidimensional, analytical separation approach to obtain the relevant physicochemical parameters of single proteins in a complex mixture for in silico chromatographic process development. A complete cell lysate containing a low titre target protein was first fractionated by multiple linear salt gradient anion exchange chromatography (AEC) with varying gradient length. The collected fractions were subsequently analysed by high-throughput capillary gel electrophoresis (HT-CGE) after being desalted and concentrated. From the obtained data of the 2D-separation the retention-volumes and the concentration of the single proteins were determined. The retention-volumes of the single proteins were used to calculate the related steric-mass action model parameters. In a final evaluation experiment the received parameters were successfully applied to predict the retention behaviour of the single proteins in salt gradient AEC. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Modelled basic parameters for semi-industrial irradiation plant design
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mangussi, J.
2009-01-01
The basic parameters of an irradiation plant design are the total activity, the product uniformity ratio and the efficiency process. The target density, the minimum dose required and the throughput depends on the use to which the irradiator will be put at. In this work, a model for calculating the specific dose rate at several depths in an infinite homogeneous medium produced by a slab source irradiator is presented. The product minimum dose rate for a set of target thickness is obtained. The design method steps are detailed and an illustrative example is presented. (author)
Optimizing incomplete sample designs for item response model parameters
van der Linden, Willem J.
Several models for optimizing incomplete sample designs with respect to information on the item parameters are presented. The following cases are considered: (1) known ability parameters; (2) unknown ability parameters; (3) item sets with multiple ability scales; and (4) response models with
Wentworth, Mami Tonoe
techniques for model calibration. For Bayesian model calibration, we employ adaptive Metropolis algorithms to construct densities for input parameters in the heat model and the HIV model. To quantify the uncertainty in the parameters, we employ two MCMC algorithms: Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis (DRAM) [33] and Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) [66, 68]. The densities obtained using these methods are compared to those obtained through the direct numerical evaluation of the Bayes' formula. We also combine uncertainties in input parameters and measurement errors to construct predictive estimates for a model response. A significant emphasis is on the development and illustration of techniques to verify the accuracy of sampling-based Metropolis algorithms. We verify the accuracy of DRAM and DREAM by comparing chains, densities and correlations obtained using DRAM, DREAM and the direct evaluation of Bayes formula. We also perform similar analysis for credible and prediction intervals for responses. Once the parameters are estimated, we employ energy statistics test [63, 64] to compare the densities obtained by different methods for the HIV model. The energy statistics are used to test the equality of distributions. We also consider parameter selection and verification techniques for models having one or more parameters that are noninfluential in the sense that they minimally impact model outputs. We illustrate these techniques for a dynamic HIV model but note that the parameter selection and verification framework is applicable to a wide range of biological and physical models. To accommodate the nonlinear input to output relations, which are typical for such models, we focus on global sensitivity analysis techniques, including those based on partial correlations, Sobol indices based on second-order model representations, and Morris indices, as well as a parameter selection technique based on standard errors. A significant objective is to provide
Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Chemical Kinetics
Winkel, Brian
2011-01-01
We discuss the need for devoting time in differential equations courses to modelling and the completion of the modelling process with efforts to estimate the parameters in the models using data. We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of chemical reactions of order n, where n = 0, 1, 2, and apply more general…
Lipskaya-Velikovsky, Lena; Jarus, Tal; Kotler, Moshe
2017-06-01
Participation in day-to-day activities of people with schizophrenia is restricted, causing concern to them, their families, service providers and the communities at large. Participation is a significant component of health and recovery; however, factors predicting participation are still not well established. This study examines whether the parameters obtained during acute hospitalization can predict the intensity and diversity of participation in day-to-day activities six months after discharge. In-patients with chronic schizophrenia (N = 104) were enrolled into the study and assessed for cognitive functioning, functional capacity in instrumental activities of daily living (IADL), and symptoms. Six months after discharge, the intensity and diversity of participation in day-to-day activities were evaluated (N = 70). Multiple correlations were found between parameters obtained during hospitalization and participation diversity, but not participation intensity. The model that is better suited to the prediction of participation diversity contains cognitive ability of construction, negative symptoms and number of previous hospitalizations. The total explained variance is 37.8% (F 3,66 = 14.99, p process for the prediction of participation diversity in day-to-day activities six months after discharge. Participation diversity is best predicted through a set of factors reflecting personal and environmental indicators. Implications for rehabilitation Results of in-patient evaluations can predict the diversity of participation in day-to-day activities six months after discharge. Higher prediction of participation diversity is obtained using a holistic evaluation model that includes assessments for cognitive abilities, negative symptoms severity and number of hospitalizations.
Study on Parameters Modeling of Wind Turbines Using SCADA Data
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yonglong YAN
2014-08-01
Full Text Available Taking the advantage of the current massive monitoring data from Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA system of wind farm, it is of important significance for anomaly detection, early warning and fault diagnosis to build the data model of state parameters of wind turbines (WTs. The operational conditions and the relationships between the state parameters of wind turbines are complex. It is difficult to establish the model of state parameter accurately, and the modeling method of state parameters of wind turbines considering parameter selection is proposed. Firstly, by analyzing the characteristic of SCADA data, a reasonable range of data and monitoring parameters are chosen. Secondly, neural network algorithm is adapted, and the selection method of input parameters in the model is presented. Generator bearing temperature and cooling air temperature are regarded as target parameters, and the two models are built and input parameters of the models are selected, respectively. Finally, the parameter selection method in this paper and the method using genetic algorithm-partial least square (GA-PLS are analyzed comparatively, and the results show that the proposed methods are correct and effective. Furthermore, the modeling of two parameters illustrate that the method in this paper can applied to other state parameters of wind turbines.
Dynamics of a neuron model in different two-dimensional parameter-spaces
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rech, Paulo C.
2011-01-01
We report some two-dimensional parameter-space diagrams numerically obtained for the multi-parameter Hindmarsh-Rose neuron model. Several different parameter planes are considered, and we show that regardless of the combination of parameters, a typical scenario is preserved: for all choice of two parameters, the parameter-space presents a comb-shaped chaotic region immersed in a large periodic region. We also show that exist regions close these chaotic region, separated by the comb teeth, organized themselves in period-adding bifurcation cascades. - Research highlights: → We report parameter-spaces obtained for the Hindmarsh-Rose neuron model. → Regardless of the combination of parameters, a typical scenario is preserved. → The scenario presents a comb-shaped chaotic region immersed in a periodic region. → Periodic regions near the chaotic region are in period-adding bifurcation cascades.
Chen, Z.; Chen, J.; Zheng, X.; Jiang, F.; Zhang, S.; Ju, W.; Yuan, W.; Mo, G.
2014-12-01
In this study, we explore the feasibility of optimizing ecosystem photosynthetic and respiratory parameters from the seasonal variation pattern of the net carbon flux. An optimization scheme is proposed to estimate two key parameters (Vcmax and Q10) by exploiting the seasonal variation in the net ecosystem carbon flux retrieved by an atmospheric inversion system. This scheme is implemented to estimate Vcmax and Q10 of the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) to improve its NEP simulation in the Boreal North America (BNA) region. Simultaneously, in-situ NEE observations at six eddy covariance sites are used to evaluate the NEE simulations. The results show that the performance of the optimized BEPS is superior to that of the BEPS with the default parameter values. These results have the implication on using atmospheric CO2 data for optimizing ecosystem parameters through atmospheric inversion or data assimilation techniques.
Sánchez López de Pablo, Cristina; Olmedo, José Javier Serrano; Rosales, Alejandra Mina; Ramírez Hernández, Norma; Del Pozo Guerrero, Francisco
2014-01-01
Optical hyperthermia systems based on the laser irradiation of gold nanorods seem to be a promising tool in the development of therapies against cancer. After a proof of concept in which the authors demonstrated the efficiency of this kind of systems, a modeling process based on an equivalent thermal-electric circuit has been carried out to determine the thermal parameters of the system and an energy balance obtained from the time-dependent heating and cooling temperature curves of the irradiated samples in order to obtain the photothermal transduction efficiency. By knowing this parameter, it is possible to increase the effectiveness of the treatments, thanks to the possibility of predicting the response of the device depending on the working configuration. As an example, the thermal behavior of two different kinds of nanoparticles is compared. The results show that, under identical conditions, the use of PEGylated gold nanorods allows for a more efficient heating compared with bare nanorods, and therefore, it results in a more effective therapy.
Reginato, R. J.; Idso, S. B.; Jackson, R. D.; Vedder, J. F.; Blanchard, M. B.; Goettelman, R.
1976-01-01
Soil water contents from both smooth and rough bare soil were estimated from remotely sensed surface soil and air temperatures. An inverse relationship between two thermal parameters and gravimetric soil water content was found for Avondale loam when its water content was between air-dry and field capacity. These parameters, daily maximum minus minimum surface soil temperature and daily maximum soil minus air temperature, appear to describe the relationship reasonably well. These two parameters also describe relative soil water evaporation (actual/potential). Surface soil temperatures showed good agreement among three measurement techniques: in situ thermocouples, a ground-based infrared radiation thermometer, and the thermal infrared band of an airborne multispectral scanner.
Parameter Optimisation for the Behaviour of Elastic Models over Time
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mosegaard, Jesper
2004-01-01
Optimisation of parameters for elastic models is essential for comparison or finding equivalent behaviour of elastic models when parameters cannot simply be transferred or converted. This is the case with a large range of commonly used elastic models. In this paper we present a general method tha...
An automatic and effective parameter optimization method for model tuning
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
T. Zhang
2015-11-01
simulation results show that the optimum combination of these parameters determined using this method is able to improve the model's overall performance by 9 %. The proposed methodology and software framework can be easily applied to other GCMs to speed up the model development process, especially regarding unavoidable comprehensive parameter tuning during the model development stage.
Identifying the connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
B. Guse
2017-11-01
Full Text Available In hydrological models, parameters are used to represent the time-invariant characteristics of catchments and to capture different aspects of hydrological response. Hence, model parameters need to be identified based on their role in controlling the hydrological behaviour. For the identification of meaningful parameter values, multiple and complementary performance criteria are used that compare modelled and measured discharge time series. The reliability of the identification of hydrologically meaningful model parameter values depends on how distinctly a model parameter can be assigned to one of the performance criteria. To investigate this, we introduce the new concept of connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria. The connective strength assesses the intensity in the interrelationship between model parameters and performance criteria in a bijective way. In our analysis of connective strength, model simulations are carried out based on a latin hypercube sampling. Ten performance criteria including Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE, Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE and its three components (alpha, beta and r as well as RSR (the ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation for different segments of the flow duration curve (FDC are calculated. With a joint analysis of two regression tree (RT approaches, we derive how a model parameter is connected to different performance criteria. At first, RTs are constructed using each performance criterion as the target variable to detect the most relevant model parameters for each performance criterion. Secondly, RTs are constructed using each parameter as the target variable to detect which performance criteria are impacted by changes in the values of one distinct model parameter. Based on this, appropriate performance criteria are identified for each model parameter. In this study, a high bijective connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria
Resuspension parameters for TRAC dispersion model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Langer, G.
1987-01-01
Resuspension factors for the wind erosion of soil contaminated with plutonium are necessary to run the Rocky Flats Plant Terrain Responsive Atmospheric Code (TRAC). The model predicts the dispersion and resulting population dose due to accidental plutonium releases
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jonathan R Karr
2015-05-01
Full Text Available Whole-cell models that explicitly represent all cellular components at the molecular level have the potential to predict phenotype from genotype. However, even for simple bacteria, whole-cell models will contain thousands of parameters, many of which are poorly characterized or unknown. New algorithms are needed to estimate these parameters and enable researchers to build increasingly comprehensive models. We organized the Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods (DREAM 8 Whole-Cell Parameter Estimation Challenge to develop new parameter estimation algorithms for whole-cell models. We asked participants to identify a subset of parameters of a whole-cell model given the model's structure and in silico "experimental" data. Here we describe the challenge, the best performing methods, and new insights into the identifiability of whole-cell models. We also describe several valuable lessons we learned toward improving future challenges. Going forward, we believe that collaborative efforts supported by inexpensive cloud computing have the potential to solve whole-cell model parameter estimation.
Description of the hexadecapole deformation parameter in the sdg interacting boson model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Liu Yuxin; Sun Di; Wang Jiajun; Han Qizhi
1998-01-01
The hexadecapole deformation parameter β 4 of the rare-earth and actinide nuclei is investigated in the framework of the sdg interacting boson model. An explicit relation between the geometric hexadecapole deformation parameter β 4 and the intrinsic deformation parameters ε 4 , ε 2 are obtained. The deformation parameters β 4 of the rare-earths and actinides are determined without any free parameter. The calculated results agree with experimental data well. It also shows that the SU(5) limit of the sdg interacting boson model can describe the β 4 systematics as well as the SU(3) limit
Description of the Hexadecapole Deformation Parameter in the sdg Interacting Boson Model
Liu, Yu-xin; Sun, Di; Wang, Jia-jun; Han, Qi-zhi
1998-04-01
The hexadecapole deformation parameter β4 of the rare-earth and actinide nuclei is investigated in the framework of the sdg interacing boson model. An explicit relation between the geometric hexadecapole deformation parameter β4 and the intrinsic deformation parameters epsilon4, epsilon2 are obtained. The deformation parameters β4 of the rare-earths and actinides are determined without any free parameter. The calculated results agree with experimental data well. It also shows that the SU(5) limit of the sdg interacting boson model can describe the β4 systematics as well as the SU(3) limit.
Dynamics of a neuron model in different two-dimensional parameter-spaces
Rech, Paulo C.
2011-03-01
We report some two-dimensional parameter-space diagrams numerically obtained for the multi-parameter Hindmarsh-Rose neuron model. Several different parameter planes are considered, and we show that regardless of the combination of parameters, a typical scenario is preserved: for all choice of two parameters, the parameter-space presents a comb-shaped chaotic region immersed in a large periodic region. We also show that exist regions close these chaotic region, separated by the comb teeth, organized themselves in period-adding bifurcation cascades.
Modeling Influenza Transmission Using Environmental Parameters
Soebiyanto, Radina P.; Kiang, Richard K.
2010-01-01
Influenza is an acute viral respiratory disease that has significant mortality, morbidity and economic burden worldwide. It infects approximately 5-15% of the world population, and causes 250,000 500,000 deaths each year. The role of environments on influenza is often drawn upon the latitude variability of influenza seasonality pattern. In regions with temperate climate, influenza epidemics exhibit clear seasonal pattern that peak during winter months, but it is not as evident in the tropics. Toward this end, we developed mathematical model and forecasting capabilities for influenza in regions characterized by warm climate Hong Kong (China) and Maricopa County (Arizona, USA). The best model for Hong Kong uses Land Surface Temperature (LST), precipitation and relative humidity as its covariates. Whereas for Maricopa County, we found that weekly influenza cases can be best modelled using mean air temperature as its covariates. Our forecasts can further guides public health organizations in targeting influenza prevention and control measures such as vaccination.
Edge Modeling by Two Blur Parameters in Varying Contrasts.
Seo, Suyoung
2018-06-01
This paper presents a method of modeling edge profiles with two blur parameters, and estimating and predicting those edge parameters with varying brightness combinations and camera-to-object distances (COD). First, the validity of the edge model is proven mathematically. Then, it is proven experimentally with edges from a set of images captured for specifically designed target sheets and with edges from natural images. Estimation of the two blur parameters for each observed edge profile is performed with a brute-force method to find parameters that produce global minimum errors. Then, using the estimated blur parameters, actual blur parameters of edges with arbitrary brightness combinations are predicted using a surface interpolation method (i.e., kriging). The predicted surfaces show that the two blur parameters of the proposed edge model depend on both dark-side edge brightness and light-side edge brightness following a certain global trend. This is similar across varying CODs. The proposed edge model is compared with a one-blur parameter edge model using experiments of the root mean squared error for fitting the edge models to each observed edge profile. The comparison results suggest that the proposed edge model has superiority over the one-blur parameter edge model in most cases where edges have varying brightness combinations.
Advances in Modelling, System Identification and Parameter ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Authors show, using numerical simulation for two system functions, the improvement in percentage normalized ... of nonlinear systems. The approach is to use multiple linearizing models fitted along the operating trajectories. ... over emphasized in the light of present day high level of research activity in the field of aerospace ...
Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kaylie Rasmuson; Kurt Rautenstrauch
2003-01-01
This analysis is one of nine technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. It documents input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCF). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in the biosphere Technical Work Plan (TWP, BSC 2003a). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development and therefore not available at the time this document is issued. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003b) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters. This analysis report, ANL-MGR-MD-000006, ''Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. This report defines and justifies values for twelve parameters required in the biosphere model. These parameters are related to use of contaminated groundwater to grow crops. The parameter values recommended in this report are used in the soil, plant, and carbon-14 submodels of the ERMYN
A simulation of water pollution model parameter estimation
Kibler, J. F.
1976-01-01
A parameter estimation procedure for a water pollution transport model is elaborated. A two-dimensional instantaneous-release shear-diffusion model serves as representative of a simple transport process. Pollution concentration levels are arrived at via modeling of a remote-sensing system. The remote-sensed data are simulated by adding Gaussian noise to the concentration level values generated via the transport model. Model parameters are estimated from the simulated data using a least-squares batch processor. Resolution, sensor array size, and number and location of sensor readings can be found from the accuracies of the parameter estimates.
Lumped parameter models for the interpretation of environmental tracer data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Maloszewski, P.; Zuber, A.
1996-01-01
Principles of the lumped-parameter approach to the interpretation of environmental tracer data are given. The following models are considered: the piston flow model (PFM), exponential flow model (EM), linear model (LM), combined piston flow and exponential flow model (EPM), combined linear flow and piston flow model (LPM), and dispersion model (DM). The applicability of these models for the interpretation of different tracer data is discussed for a steady state flow approximation. Case studies are given to exemplify the applicability of the lumped-parameter approach. Description of a user-friendly computer program is given. (author). 68 refs, 25 figs, 4 tabs
Lumped parameter models for the interpretation of environmental tracer data
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Maloszewski, P [GSF-Inst. for Hydrology, Oberschleissheim (Germany); Zuber, A [Institute of Nuclear Physics, Cracow (Poland)
1996-10-01
Principles of the lumped-parameter approach to the interpretation of environmental tracer data are given. The following models are considered: the piston flow model (PFM), exponential flow model (EM), linear model (LM), combined piston flow and exponential flow model (EPM), combined linear flow and piston flow model (LPM), and dispersion model (DM). The applicability of these models for the interpretation of different tracer data is discussed for a steady state flow approximation. Case studies are given to exemplify the applicability of the lumped-parameter approach. Description of a user-friendly computer program is given. (author). 68 refs, 25 figs, 4 tabs.
Zaker, Neda; Sina, Sedigheh; Koontz, Craig; Meigooni1, Ali S.
2016-01-01
Monte Carlo simulations are widely used for calculation of the dosimetric parameters of brachytherapy sources. MCNP4C2, MCNP5, MCNPX, EGS4, EGSnrc, PTRAN, and GEANT4 are among the most commonly used codes in this field. Each of these codes utilizes a cross‐sectional library for the purpose of simulating different elements and materials with complex chemical compositions. The accuracies of the final outcomes of these simulations are very sensitive to the accuracies of the cross‐sectional libraries. Several investigators have shown that inaccuracies of some of the cross section files have led to errors in 125I and 103Pd parameters. The purpose of this study is to compare the dosimetric parameters of sample brachytherapy sources, calculated with three different versions of the MCNP code — MCNP4C, MCNP5, and MCNPX. In these simulations for each source type, the source and phantom geometries, as well as the number of the photons, were kept identical, thus eliminating the possible uncertainties. The results of these investigations indicate that for low‐energy sources such as 125I and 103Pd there are discrepancies in gL(r) values. Discrepancies up to 21.7% and 28% are observed between MCNP4C and other codes at a distance of 6 cm for 103Pd and 10 cm for 125I from the source, respectively. However, for higher energy sources, the discrepancies in gL(r) values are less than 1.1% for 192Ir and less than 1.2% for 137Cs between the three codes. PACS number(s): 87.56.bg PMID:27074460
Zaker, Neda; Zehtabian, Mehdi; Sina, Sedigheh; Koontz, Craig; Meigooni, Ali S
2016-03-08
Monte Carlo simulations are widely used for calculation of the dosimetric parameters of brachytherapy sources. MCNP4C2, MCNP5, MCNPX, EGS4, EGSnrc, PTRAN, and GEANT4 are among the most commonly used codes in this field. Each of these codes utilizes a cross-sectional library for the purpose of simulating different elements and materials with complex chemical compositions. The accuracies of the final outcomes of these simulations are very sensitive to the accuracies of the cross-sectional libraries. Several investigators have shown that inaccuracies of some of the cross section files have led to errors in 125I and 103Pd parameters. The purpose of this study is to compare the dosimetric parameters of sample brachytherapy sources, calculated with three different versions of the MCNP code - MCNP4C, MCNP5, and MCNPX. In these simulations for each source type, the source and phantom geometries, as well as the number of the photons, were kept identical, thus eliminating the possible uncertainties. The results of these investigations indicate that for low-energy sources such as 125I and 103Pd there are discrepancies in gL(r) values. Discrepancies up to 21.7% and 28% are observed between MCNP4C and other codes at a distance of 6 cm for 103Pd and 10 cm for 125I from the source, respectively. However, for higher energy sources, the discrepancies in gL(r) values are less than 1.1% for 192Ir and less than 1.2% for 137Cs between the three codes.
A simple technique for obtaining future climate data inputs for natural resource models
Those conducting impact studies using natural resource models need to be able to quickly and easily obtain downscaled future climate data from multiple models, scenarios, and timescales for multiple locations. This paper describes a method of quickly obtaining future climate data over a wide range o...
Evaluation of the perceptual grouping parameter in the CTVA model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Manuel Cortijo
2005-01-01
Full Text Available The CODE Theory of Visual Attention (CTVA is a mathematical model explaining the effects of grouping by proximity and distance upon reaction times and accuracy of response with regard to elements in the visual display. The predictions of the theory agree quite acceptably in one and two dimensions (CTVA-2D with the experimental results (reaction times and accuracy of response. The difference between reaction-times for the compatible and incompatible responses, known as the responsecompatibility effect, is also acceptably predicted, except at small distances and high number of distractors. Further results using the same paradigm at even smaller distances have been now obtained, showing greater discrepancies. Then, we have introduced a method to evaluate the strength of sensory evidence (eta parameter, which takes grouping by similarity into account and minimizes these discrepancies.
Parameters modelling of amaranth grain processing technology
Derkanosova, N. M.; Shelamova, S. A.; Ponomareva, I. N.; Shurshikova, G. V.; Vasilenko, O. A.
2018-03-01
The article presents a technique that allows calculating the structure of a multicomponent bakery mixture for the production of enriched products, taking into account the instability of nutrient content, and ensuring the fulfilment of technological requirements and, at the same time considering consumer preferences. The results of modelling and analysis of optimal solutions are given by the example of calculating the structure of a three-component mixture of wheat and rye flour with an enriching component, that is, whole-hulled amaranth flour applied to the technology of bread from a mixture of rye and wheat flour on a liquid leaven.
The Hill model of concentration-response is ubiquitous in toxicology, perhaps because its parameters directly relate to biologically significant metrics of toxicity such as efficacy and potency. Point estimates of these parameters obtained through least squares regression or maxi...
El Gharamti, Mohamad; Ait-El-Fquih, Boujemaa; Hoteit, Ibrahim
2015-01-01
The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) recursively integrates field data into simulation models to obtain a better characterization of the model’s state and parameters. These are generally estimated following a state-parameters joint augmentation
WATGIS: A GIS-Based Lumped Parameter Water Quality Model
Glenn P. Fernandez; George M. Chescheir; R. Wayne Skaggs; Devendra M. Amatya
2002-01-01
A Geographic Information System (GIS)Âbased, lumped parameter water quality model was developed to estimate the spatial and temporal nitrogenÂloading patterns for lower coastal plain watersheds in eastern North Carolina. The model uses a spatially distributed delivery ratio (DR) parameter to account for nitrogen retention or loss along a drainage network. Delivery...
A test for the parameters of multiple linear regression models ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
A test for the parameters of multiple linear regression models is developed for conducting tests simultaneously on all the parameters of multiple linear regression models. The test is robust relative to the assumptions of homogeneity of variances and absence of serial correlation of the classical F-test. Under certain null and ...
The influence of model parameters on catchment-response
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shah, S.M.S.; Gabriel, H.F.; Khan, A.A.
2002-01-01
This paper deals with the study of influence of influence of conceptual rainfall-runoff model parameters on catchment response (runoff). A conceptual modified watershed yield model is employed to study the effects of model-parameters on catchment-response, i.e. runoff. The model is calibrated, using manual parameter-fitting approach, also known as trial and error parameter-fitting. In all, there are twenty one (21) parameters that control the functioning of the model. A lumped parametric approach is used. The detailed analysis was performed on Ling River near Kahuta, having catchment area of 56 sq. miles. The model includes physical parameters like GWSM, PETS, PGWRO, etc. fitting coefficients like CINF, CGWS, etc. and initial estimates of the surface-water and groundwater storages i.e. srosp and gwsp. Sensitivity analysis offers a good way, without repetititious computations, the proper weight and consideration that must be taken when each of the influencing factor is evaluated. Sensitivity-analysis was performed to evaluate the influence of model-parameters on runoff. The sensitivity and relative contributions of model parameters influencing catchment-response are studied. (author)
Identification of ecosystem parameters by SDE-modelling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) for ecosystem modelling have attracted increasing attention during recent years. The modelling has mostly been through simulation experiments in order to analyse how system noise propagates through the ordinary differential equation formulation of ecosystem...... models. Estimation of parameters in SDEs is, however, possible by combining Kalman filter techniques and likelihood estimation. By modelling parameters as random walks it is possible to identify linear as well as non-linear interactions between ecosystem components. By formulating a simple linear SDE...
Diabatic models with transferrable parameters for generalized chemical reactions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Reimers, Jeffrey R; McKemmish, Laura K; McKenzie, Ross H; Hush, Noel S
2017-01-01
Diabatic models applied to adiabatic electron-transfer theory yield many equations involving just a few parameters that connect ground-state geometries and vibration frequencies to excited-state transition energies and vibration frequencies to the rate constants for electron-transfer reactions, utilizing properties of the conical-intersection seam linking the ground and excited states through the Pseudo Jahn-Teller effect. We review how such simplicity in basic understanding can also be obtained for general chemical reactions. The key feature that must be recognized is that electron-transfer (or hole transfer) processes typically involve one electron (hole) moving between two orbitals, whereas general reactions typically involve two electrons or even four electrons for processes in aromatic molecules. Each additional moving electron leads to new high-energy but interrelated conical-intersection seams that distort the shape of the critical lowest-energy seam. Recognizing this feature shows how conical-intersection descriptors can be transferred between systems, and how general chemical reactions can be compared using the same set of simple parameters. Mathematical relationships are presented depicting how different conical-intersection seams relate to each other, showing that complex problems can be reduced into an effective interaction between the ground-state and a critical excited state to provide the first semi-quantitative implementation of Shaik’s “twin state” concept. Applications are made (i) demonstrating why the chemistry of the first-row elements is qualitatively so different to that of the second and later rows, (ii) deducing the bond-length alternation in hypothetical cyclohexatriene from the observed UV spectroscopy of benzene, (iii) demonstrating that commonly used procedures for modelling surface hopping based on inclusion of only the first-derivative correction to the Born-Oppenheimer approximation are valid in no region of the chemical
Bayesian estimation of parameters in a regional hydrological model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
K. Engeland
2002-01-01
Full Text Available This study evaluates the applicability of the distributed, process-oriented Ecomag model for prediction of daily streamflow in ungauged basins. The Ecomag model is applied as a regional model to nine catchments in the NOPEX area, using Bayesian statistics to estimate the posterior distribution of the model parameters conditioned on the observed streamflow. The distribution is calculated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC analysis. The Bayesian method requires formulation of a likelihood function for the parameters and three alternative formulations are used. The first is a subjectively chosen objective function that describes the goodness of fit between the simulated and observed streamflow, as defined in the GLUE framework. The second and third formulations are more statistically correct likelihood models that describe the simulation errors. The full statistical likelihood model describes the simulation errors as an AR(1 process, whereas the simple model excludes the auto-regressive part. The statistical parameters depend on the catchments and the hydrological processes and the statistical and the hydrological parameters are estimated simultaneously. The results show that the simple likelihood model gives the most robust parameter estimates. The simulation error may be explained to a large extent by the catchment characteristics and climatic conditions, so it is possible to transfer knowledge about them to ungauged catchments. The statistical models for the simulation errors indicate that structural errors in the model are more important than parameter uncertainties. Keywords: regional hydrological model, model uncertainty, Bayesian analysis, Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis
Brownian motion model with stochastic parameters for asset prices
Ching, Soo Huei; Hin, Pooi Ah
2013-09-01
The Brownian motion model may not be a completely realistic model for asset prices because in real asset prices the drift μ and volatility σ may change over time. Presently we consider a model in which the parameter x = (μ,σ) is such that its value x (t + Δt) at a short time Δt ahead of the present time t depends on the value of the asset price at time t + Δt as well as the present parameter value x(t) and m-1 other parameter values before time t via a conditional distribution. The Malaysian stock prices are used to compare the performance of the Brownian motion model with fixed parameter with that of the model with stochastic parameter.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Druce, C.H.; Barrett, B.R. (Arizona Univ., Tucson (USA). Dept. of Physics); Pittel, S. (Delaware Univ., Newark (USA). Bartol Research Foundation); Duval, P.D. (BEERS Associates, Reston, VA (USA))
1985-07-11
The parameters of the Majorana interaction of the neutron-proton interacting boson model are calculated for the Hg isotopes. The calculations utilize the Otsuka-Arima-Iachello mapping procedure and also lead to predictions for the other boson parameters. The resulting spectra are compared with experimental spectra and those obtained from phenomenological fits.
Druce, C. H.; Pittel, S.; Barrett, B. R.; Duval, P. D.
1985-07-01
The parameters of the Majorana interaction of the neutron-proton interacting boson model are calculated for the Hg isotopes. The calculations utilize the Otsuka-Arima-Iachello mapping procedure and also lead to predictions for the other boson parameters. The resulting spectra are compared with experimental spectra and those obtained from phenomenological fits.
A New Five-Parameter Fréchet Model for Extreme Values
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Muhammad Ahsan ul Haq
2017-09-01
Full Text Available A new five parameter Fréchet model for Extreme Values was proposed and studied. Various mathematical properties including moments, quantiles, and moment generating function were derived. Incomplete moments and probability weighted moments were also obtained. The maximum likelihood method was used to estimate the model parameters. The flexibility of the derived model was accessed using two real data set applications.
Fernandes, J. S.; Lima, F. A.; Vieira, S. F.; Reis, P. J.; Appoloni, C. R.
2015-07-01
Microstructural parameters evaluation of porous materials, such as, rocks reservoir (water, petroleum, gas...), it is of great importance for several knowledge areas. In this context, the X-ray microtomography (μ-CT) has been showing a technical one quite useful for the analysis of such rocks (sandstone, limestone and carbonate), object of great interest of the petroleum and water industries, because it facilitates the characterization of important parameters, among them, porosity, permeability, grains or pore size distribution. The X-ray microtomography is a non-destructive method, that besides already facilitating the reuse of the samples analyzed, it also supplies images 2-D and 3-D of the sample. In this work samples of reservoir rock of the Guarani aquifer will be analyzed, given by the company of perforation of wells artesian Blue Water, in the municipal district of Videira, Santa Catarina, Brazil. The acquisition of the microtomographys data of the reservoir rocks was accomplished in a Skyscan 1172 μ-CT scanner, installed in Applied Nuclear Physics Laboratory (LFNA) in the State University of Londrina (UEL), Paraná, Brazil. In this context, this work presents the microstructural characterization of reservoir rock sample of the Guarani aquifer, analyzed for two space resolutions, 2.8 μm and 4.8 μm, where determined average porosity was 28.5% and 21.9%, respectively. Besides, we also determined the pore size distribution for both resolutions. Two 3-D images were generated of this sample, one for each space resolution, in which it is possible to visualize the internal structure of the same ones.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fernandes, J S; Lima, F A; Vieira, S F; Reis, P J; Appoloni, C R
2015-01-01
Microstructural parameters evaluation of porous materials, such as, rocks reservoir (water, petroleum, gas...), it is of great importance for several knowledge areas. In this context, the X-ray microtomography (μ-CT) has been showing a technical one quite useful for the analysis of such rocks (sandstone, limestone and carbonate), object of great interest of the petroleum and water industries, because it facilitates the characterization of important parameters, among them, porosity, permeability, grains or pore size distribution. The X-ray microtomography is a non-destructive method, that besides already facilitating the reuse of the samples analyzed, it also supplies images 2-D and 3-D of the sample. In this work samples of reservoir rock of the Guarani aquifer will be analyzed, given by the company of perforation of wells artesian Blue Water, in the municipal district of Videira, Santa Catarina, Brazil. The acquisition of the microtomographys data of the reservoir rocks was accomplished in a Skyscan 1172 μ-CT scanner, installed in Applied Nuclear Physics Laboratory (LFNA) in the State University of Londrina (UEL), Paraná, Brazil. In this context, this work presents the microstructural characterization of reservoir rock sample of the Guarani aquifer, analyzed for two space resolutions, 2.8 μm and 4.8 μm, where determined average porosity was 28.5% and 21.9%, respectively. Besides, we also determined the pore size distribution for both resolutions. Two 3-D images were generated of this sample, one for each space resolution, in which it is possible to visualize the internal structure of the same ones. (paper)
Learning about physical parameters: the importance of model discrepancy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brynjarsdóttir, Jenný; O'Hagan, Anthony
2014-01-01
Science-based simulation models are widely used to predict the behavior of complex physical systems. It is also common to use observations of the physical system to solve the inverse problem, that is, to learn about the values of parameters within the model, a process which is often called calibration. The main goal of calibration is usually to improve the predictive performance of the simulator but the values of the parameters in the model may also be of intrinsic scientific interest in their own right. In order to make appropriate use of observations of the physical system it is important to recognize model discrepancy, the difference between reality and the simulator output. We illustrate through a simple example that an analysis that does not account for model discrepancy may lead to biased and over-confident parameter estimates and predictions. The challenge with incorporating model discrepancy in statistical inverse problems is being confounded with calibration parameters, which will only be resolved with meaningful priors. For our simple example, we model the model-discrepancy via a Gaussian process and demonstrate that through accounting for model discrepancy our prediction within the range of data is correct. However, only with realistic priors on the model discrepancy do we uncover the true parameter values. Through theoretical arguments we show that these findings are typical of the general problem of learning about physical parameters and the underlying physical system using science-based mechanistic models. (paper)
Spatio-temporal modeling of nonlinear distributed parameter systems
Li, Han-Xiong
2011-01-01
The purpose of this volume is to provide a brief review of the previous work on model reduction and identifi cation of distributed parameter systems (DPS), and develop new spatio-temporal models and their relevant identifi cation approaches. In this book, a systematic overview and classifi cation on the modeling of DPS is presented fi rst, which includes model reduction, parameter estimation and system identifi cation. Next, a class of block-oriented nonlinear systems in traditional lumped parameter systems (LPS) is extended to DPS, which results in the spatio-temporal Wiener and Hammerstein s
Parameters Estimation of Geographically Weighted Ordinal Logistic Regression (GWOLR) Model
Zuhdi, Shaifudin; Retno Sari Saputro, Dewi; Widyaningsih, Purnami
2017-06-01
A regression model is the representation of relationship between independent variable and dependent variable. The dependent variable has categories used in the logistic regression model to calculate odds on. The logistic regression model for dependent variable has levels in the logistics regression model is ordinal. GWOLR model is an ordinal logistic regression model influenced the geographical location of the observation site. Parameters estimation in the model needed to determine the value of a population based on sample. The purpose of this research is to parameters estimation of GWOLR model using R software. Parameter estimation uses the data amount of dengue fever patients in Semarang City. Observation units used are 144 villages in Semarang City. The results of research get GWOLR model locally for each village and to know probability of number dengue fever patient categories.
Universally sloppy parameter sensitivities in systems biology models.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ryan N Gutenkunst
2007-10-01
Full Text Available Quantitative computational models play an increasingly important role in modern biology. Such models typically involve many free parameters, and assigning their values is often a substantial obstacle to model development. Directly measuring in vivo biochemical parameters is difficult, and collectively fitting them to other experimental data often yields large parameter uncertainties. Nevertheless, in earlier work we showed in a growth-factor-signaling model that collective fitting could yield well-constrained predictions, even when it left individual parameters very poorly constrained. We also showed that the model had a "sloppy" spectrum of parameter sensitivities, with eigenvalues roughly evenly distributed over many decades. Here we use a collection of models from the literature to test whether such sloppy spectra are common in systems biology. Strikingly, we find that every model we examine has a sloppy spectrum of sensitivities. We also test several consequences of this sloppiness for building predictive models. In particular, sloppiness suggests that collective fits to even large amounts of ideal time-series data will often leave many parameters poorly constrained. Tests over our model collection are consistent with this suggestion. This difficulty with collective fits may seem to argue for direct parameter measurements, but sloppiness also implies that such measurements must be formidably precise and complete to usefully constrain many model predictions. We confirm this implication in our growth-factor-signaling model. Our results suggest that sloppy sensitivity spectra are universal in systems biology models. The prevalence of sloppiness highlights the power of collective fits and suggests that modelers should focus on predictions rather than on parameters.
Universally sloppy parameter sensitivities in systems biology models.
Gutenkunst, Ryan N; Waterfall, Joshua J; Casey, Fergal P; Brown, Kevin S; Myers, Christopher R; Sethna, James P
2007-10-01
Quantitative computational models play an increasingly important role in modern biology. Such models typically involve many free parameters, and assigning their values is often a substantial obstacle to model development. Directly measuring in vivo biochemical parameters is difficult, and collectively fitting them to other experimental data often yields large parameter uncertainties. Nevertheless, in earlier work we showed in a growth-factor-signaling model that collective fitting could yield well-constrained predictions, even when it left individual parameters very poorly constrained. We also showed that the model had a "sloppy" spectrum of parameter sensitivities, with eigenvalues roughly evenly distributed over many decades. Here we use a collection of models from the literature to test whether such sloppy spectra are common in systems biology. Strikingly, we find that every model we examine has a sloppy spectrum of sensitivities. We also test several consequences of this sloppiness for building predictive models. In particular, sloppiness suggests that collective fits to even large amounts of ideal time-series data will often leave many parameters poorly constrained. Tests over our model collection are consistent with this suggestion. This difficulty with collective fits may seem to argue for direct parameter measurements, but sloppiness also implies that such measurements must be formidably precise and complete to usefully constrain many model predictions. We confirm this implication in our growth-factor-signaling model. Our results suggest that sloppy sensitivity spectra are universal in systems biology models. The prevalence of sloppiness highlights the power of collective fits and suggests that modelers should focus on predictions rather than on parameters.
Modeling and Parameter Estimation of a Small Wind Generation System
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Carlos A. Ramírez Gómez
2013-11-01
Full Text Available The modeling and parameter estimation of a small wind generation system is presented in this paper. The system consists of a wind turbine, a permanent magnet synchronous generator, a three phase rectifier, and a direct current load. In order to estimate the parameters wind speed data are registered in a weather station located in the Fraternidad Campus at ITM. Wind speed data were applied to a reference model programed with PSIM software. From that simulation, variables were registered to estimate the parameters. The wind generation system model together with the estimated parameters is an excellent representation of the detailed model, but the estimated model offers a higher flexibility than the programed model in PSIM software.
NONLINEAR PLANT PIECEWISE-CONTINUOUS MODEL MATRIX PARAMETERS ESTIMATION
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Roman L. Leibov
2017-09-01
Full Text Available This paper presents a nonlinear plant piecewise-continuous model matrix parameters estimation technique using nonlinear model time responses and random search method. One of piecewise-continuous model application areas is defined. The results of proposed approach application for aircraft turbofan engine piecewisecontinuous model formation are presented
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kniess, C.T.; Prates, P.B.; Martins, G.J.M.; Riella, H.G.; Matsinhe, Jonas; Kuhnen, N.C.
2012-01-01
The production of materials from crystallization of glass, called glass ceramic, have proved interesting by the possibility of development of different microstructures, with reduced grain size and the presence of residual amorphous phase in different quantities. The method that uses the differential thermal analysis (DTA) provides research on the material properties over a wide temperature range, it's widely applied to crystallization processes of glass ceramic materials. Within this context, this paper aims to study the kinetics of nucleation and crystal growth in glass ceramic materials in the system SiO 2 - Al 2 O 3 -Li 2 O, obtained with the addition of mineral coal bottom ash as source of aluminosilicates, through the technique of differential thermal analysis. (author)
Identification of parameters of discrete-continuous models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cekus, Dawid; Warys, Pawel
2015-01-01
In the paper, the parameters of a discrete-continuous model have been identified on the basis of experimental investigations and formulation of optimization problem. The discrete-continuous model represents a cantilever stepped Timoshenko beam. The mathematical model has been formulated and solved according to the Lagrange multiplier formalism. Optimization has been based on the genetic algorithm. The presented proceeding’s stages make the identification of any parameters of discrete-continuous systems possible
Identification of parameters of discrete-continuous models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cekus, Dawid, E-mail: cekus@imipkm.pcz.pl; Warys, Pawel, E-mail: warys@imipkm.pcz.pl [Institute of Mechanics and Machine Design Foundations, Czestochowa University of Technology, Dabrowskiego 73, 42-201 Czestochowa (Poland)
2015-03-10
In the paper, the parameters of a discrete-continuous model have been identified on the basis of experimental investigations and formulation of optimization problem. The discrete-continuous model represents a cantilever stepped Timoshenko beam. The mathematical model has been formulated and solved according to the Lagrange multiplier formalism. Optimization has been based on the genetic algorithm. The presented proceeding’s stages make the identification of any parameters of discrete-continuous systems possible.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ramos B, E.O.; Linares G, M.E.
1996-01-01
The Cuban climate is, in general, similar in all the territory, nevertheless there are factors, like the vicinity of warm currents, that have an effect on the western coast, and the mountains, which produce climatic particularities. According to the research achieved in the location zone, the Juragua Nuclear Power Plant, the climate is characterized by high temperatures, which present a little variation from one period to another. The average temperature of the coldest month (February), for the investigation period (1989-1993), was of 22.8 degC, with extreme minimum temperatures between 5-16 degC. The average temperatures of the warmest month (August) was of 27.3 degC reaching maximal temperatures up to 36.2 degC. The rain total fall is of 4496 mm, representing the 77% during the rainy season (May-October), comparing these output with the obtained in other accounts, these last are higher, classifying this 5 years of rainy due to the event Enos, which reported significant data of daily precipitations during the winter season of the years 1992-1993; May was the month where the total maximum of precipitations 861.3 mm was reached, meaning the 19.2% of all the period. The wind was characterized for weak, with inferior speeds to the 10 Km/h (2.80 m/s), with extreme maximum comprised between the 50 and 151 Km/h, with prevalence of the direction ENE. The distribution of cases for the different categories of stability does not show significant differences in the distribution of the gradations of stability for the different months of the year. The most frequent category is the neutral 'D'. The cases obtained with very stable category (G) coincide with terms of calm which imply a high factor of concentrations of pollutants in case of the expulsion to the atmosphere, this condition is repeated in a '10.15%'. (authors). 2 refs., 2 tabs
Parameter estimation in stochastic rainfall-runoff models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jonsdottir, Harpa; Madsen, Henrik; Palsson, Olafur Petur
2006-01-01
A parameter estimation method for stochastic rainfall-runoff models is presented. The model considered in the paper is a conceptual stochastic model, formulated in continuous-discrete state space form. The model is small and a fully automatic optimization is, therefore, possible for estimating all...... the parameter values are optimal for simulation or prediction. The data originates from Iceland and the model is designed for Icelandic conditions, including a snow routine for mountainous areas. The model demands only two input data series, precipitation and temperature and one output data series...
Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Henrik; Johansen, Søren
1999-01-01
Some methods for the evaluation of parameter constancy in vector autoregressive (VAR) models are discussed. Two different ways of re-estimating the VAR model are proposed; one in which all parameters are estimated recursively based upon the likelihood function for the first observations, and anot...... be applied to test the constancy of the long-run parameters in the cointegrated VAR-model. All results are illustrated using a model for the term structure of interest rates on US Treasury securities. ......Some methods for the evaluation of parameter constancy in vector autoregressive (VAR) models are discussed. Two different ways of re-estimating the VAR model are proposed; one in which all parameters are estimated recursively based upon the likelihood function for the first observations......, and another in which the cointegrating relations are estimated recursively from a likelihood function, where the short-run parameters have been concentrated out. We suggest graphical procedures based on recursively estimated eigenvalues to evaluate the constancy of the long-run parameters in the model...
Incorporating model parameter uncertainty into inverse treatment planning
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lian Jun; Xing Lei
2004-01-01
Radiobiological treatment planning depends not only on the accuracy of the models describing the dose-response relation of different tumors and normal tissues but also on the accuracy of tissue specific radiobiological parameters in these models. Whereas the general formalism remains the same, different sets of model parameters lead to different solutions and thus critically determine the final plan. Here we describe an inverse planning formalism with inclusion of model parameter uncertainties. This is made possible by using a statistical analysis-based frameset developed by our group. In this formalism, the uncertainties of model parameters, such as the parameter a that describes tissue-specific effect in the equivalent uniform dose (EUD) model, are expressed by probability density function and are included in the dose optimization process. We found that the final solution strongly depends on distribution functions of the model parameters. Considering that currently available models for computing biological effects of radiation are simplistic, and the clinical data used to derive the models are sparse and of questionable quality, the proposed technique provides us with an effective tool to minimize the effect caused by the uncertainties in a statistical sense. With the incorporation of the uncertainties, the technique has potential for us to maximally utilize the available radiobiology knowledge for better IMRT treatment
A method for model identification and parameter estimation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bambach, M; Heinkenschloss, M; Herty, M
2013-01-01
We propose and analyze a new method for the identification of a parameter-dependent model that best describes a given system. This problem arises, for example, in the mathematical modeling of material behavior where several competing constitutive equations are available to describe a given material. In this case, the models are differential equations that arise from the different constitutive equations, and the unknown parameters are coefficients in the constitutive equations. One has to determine the best-suited constitutive equations for a given material and application from experiments. We assume that the true model is one of the N possible parameter-dependent models. To identify the correct model and the corresponding parameters, we can perform experiments, where for each experiment we prescribe an input to the system and observe a part of the system state. Our approach consists of two stages. In the first stage, for each pair of models we determine the experiment, i.e. system input and observation, that best differentiates between the two models, and measure the distance between the two models. Then we conduct N(N − 1) or, depending on the approach taken, N(N − 1)/2 experiments and use the result of the experiments as well as the previously computed model distances to determine the true model. We provide sufficient conditions on the model distances and measurement errors which guarantee that our approach identifies the correct model. Given the model, we identify the corresponding model parameters in the second stage. The problem in the second stage is a standard parameter estimation problem and we use a method suitable for the given application. We illustrate our approach on three examples, including one where the models are elliptic partial differential equations with different parameterized right-hand sides and an example where we identify the constitutive equation in a problem from computational viscoplasticity. (paper)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Samant, Sushil Arun; Sarkar, Deepangkar; Krishnagopal, Srinivas; Upadhyay, Ajay K.; Jha, Pallavi
2010-01-01
The propagation of an intense (a 0 =3), short-pulse (L∼λ p ) laser through a homogeneous plasma has been investigated. Using two-dimensional simulations for a 0 =3, the pulse-length and spot-size at three different plasma densities were optimized in order to get a better quality beam in laser wakefield accelerator. The study reveals that with increasing pulse-length the acceleration increases, but after a certain pulse-length (L>0.23λ p ) the emittance blows-up unacceptably. For spot-sizes less than that given by k p0 r s =2√(a 0 ), trapping is poor or nonexistent, and the optimal spot-size is larger. The deviation of the optimal spot-size from this formula increases as the density decreases. The efficacy of these two-dimensional simulations has been validated by running three-dimensional simulations at the highest density. It has been shown that good quality GeV-class beams can be obtained at plasma densities of ∼10 18 cm -3 . The quality of the beam can be substantially improved by selecting only the high-energy peak; in this fashion an energy-spread of better than 1% and a current in tens of kA can be achieved, which are important for applications such as free-electron lasers.
Modelling hydrodynamic parameters to predict flow assisted corrosion
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Poulson, B.; Greenwell, B.; Chexal, B.; Horowitz, J.
1992-01-01
During the past 15 years, flow assisted corrosion has been a worldwide problem in the power generating industry. The phenomena is complex and depends on environment, material composition, and hydrodynamic factors. Recently, modeling of flow assisted corrosion has become a subject of great importance. A key part of this effort is modeling the hydrodynamic aspects of this issue. This paper examines which hydrodynamic parameter should be used to correlate the occurrence and rate of flow assisted corrosion with physically meaningful parameters, discusses ways of measuring the relevant hydrodynamic parameter, and describes how the hydrodynamic data is incorporated into the predictive model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
L. A. Samofalova
2016-01-01
Full Text Available The article dealswith the search for the unification of technological approaches to increase the efficiency of separation of the protein complex and stability of the plant foundations from seed dicotyledonous economically important crops of soybean, hemp, buckwheat. Uneven localization of nitrogenous substances in the seed largely determines the accessibility of protein complexes for extraction. Natural fermentation of spare proteins in cellular structures when the germination process starts leads to the accumulation of soluble nitrogen, and the change in the salt composition of protoplasm facilitates the transition in the solution of insoluble complexes in the form of colloids. It is shown that fine grinding of dry seeds increases the efficiency of extraction by 1.3–1.6 times, while rough grinding increases bioactivity by 1.6–1.8 times. The dispersion containing 8.1±0.7% of dry matter at buckwheat bases and 9.5±1,3% at hemp and soy bases with the water ratio 1:4 to 1:7 satisfy the requirements of taste sensations and fullness of the chemical composition. Based on the results of the extraction of protein of buckwheat seeds the conclusion has been drawn that there is a need for a differentiated approach to selecting conditions for the creation of food framework. Taking into consideration the fact that the amount of calcium in buckwheat seeds is17–25 times smaller than in oil seeds and the quantity of phosphorus is 1.6–2 times smaller, the contribution of electrostatic forces in the protein solubility is small and the additional actions to activate the protein complex are required. To predict the properties of vegetable bases of bioactivated soybean seeds and hemp, the central composite uniform-rotatable planning was applied and the full factorial experiment with factorial scheme 3×3×3 (33 was selected. The preferred combination of values of the input parameters X1, X2, X3 was discovered. They provide for the maximum of Y
Geary, Una; Lopez-Villalobos, Nicolas; O'Brien, Bernadette; Garrick, Dorian J; Shalloo, Laurence
2014-05-01
The impact of mastitis on milk value per litre independent of the effect of mastitis on milk volume, was quantified for Ireland using a meta-analysis and a processing sector model. Changes in raw milk composition, cheese processing and composition associated with increased bulk milk somatic cell count (BMSCC) were incorporated into the model. Processing costs and market values were representative of current industry values. It was assumed that as BMSCC increased (i) milk fat and milk protein increased and milk lactose decreased, (ii) fat and protein recoveries decreased, (iii) cheese protein decreased and cheese moisture increased. Five BMSCC categories were examined from ⩽100 000 to >400 000 cells/ml. The analysis showed that as BMSCC increased the production quantities reduced. An increase in BMSCC from 100 000 to >400 000 cells/ml saw a reduction in net revenue of 3·2% per annum (€51·3 million) which corresponded to a reduction in the value of raw milk of €0·0096 cents/l.
A distributed approach for parameters estimation in System Biology models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mosca, E.; Merelli, I.; Alfieri, R.; Milanesi, L.
2009-01-01
Due to the lack of experimental measurements, biological variability and experimental errors, the value of many parameters of the systems biology mathematical models is yet unknown or uncertain. A possible computational solution is the parameter estimation, that is the identification of the parameter values that determine the best model fitting respect to experimental data. We have developed an environment to distribute each run of the parameter estimation algorithm on a different computational resource. The key feature of the implementation is a relational database that allows the user to swap the candidate solutions among the working nodes during the computations. The comparison of the distributed implementation with the parallel one showed that the presented approach enables a faster and better parameter estimation of systems biology models.
Optimal parameters for the FFA-Beddoes dynamic stall model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bjoerck, A; Mert, M [FFA, The Aeronautical Research Institute of Sweden, Bromma (Sweden); Madsen, H A [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)
1999-03-01
Unsteady aerodynamic effects, like dynamic stall, must be considered in calculation of dynamic forces for wind turbines. Models incorporated in aero-elastic programs are of semi-empirical nature. Resulting aerodynamic forces therefore depend on values used for the semi-empiricial parameters. In this paper a study of finding appropriate parameters to use with the Beddoes-Leishman model is discussed. Minimisation of the `tracking error` between results from 2D wind tunnel tests and simulation with the model is used to find optimum values for the parameters. The resulting optimum parameters show a large variation from case to case. Using these different sets of optimum parameters in the calculation of blade vibrations, give rise to quite different predictions of aerodynamic damping which is discussed. (au)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Casas Galiano, G.; Grau Malonda, A.
1994-01-01
An intelligent computer program has been developed to obtain the mathematical formulae to compute the probabilities and reduced energies of the different atomic rearrangement pathways following electron-capture decay. Creation and annihilation operators for Auger and X processes have been introduced. Taking into account the symmetries associated with each process, 262 different pathways were obtained. This model allows us to obtain the influence of the M-electron-capture in the counting efficiency when the atomic number of the nuclide is high
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hey, Jonathan; Malloy, Adam C.; Martinez-Botas, Ricardo; Lamperth, Michael
2015-01-01
Highlights: • Conjugate heat transfer analysis of an electric machine. • Inverse identification method for estimating the model parameters. • Experimentally determined thermal properties and electromagnetic losses. • Coupling of inverse identification method with a numerical model. • Improved modeling accuracy through introduction of interface material. - Abstract: Energy conversion devices undergo thermal loading during their operation as a result of inefficiencies in the energy conversion process. This will eventually lead to degradation and possible failure of the device if the heat generated is not properly managed. The ability to accurately predict the thermal behavior of such a device during the initial developmental stage is an important requirement. However, accurate predictions of critical temperature is challenging due to the variation of heat transfer parameters from one device to another. The ability to determine the model parameters is key to accurately representing the heat transfer in such a device. This paper presents the use of an inverse identification technique to estimate the model parameters of an energy conversion device designed for vehicular applications. To simulate the imperfect contact and the presence of insulating materials in the permanent magnet electric machine, thin material are introduced at the component interface of the numerical model. The proposed inverse identification method is used to estimate the equivalent thermal conductance of the thin material. In addition, the electromagnetic losses generated in the permanent magnet is also derived indirectly from the temperature measurement using the same method. With the thermal properties and input parameters of the numerical model obtained from the inverse identification method, the critical temperature of the device can be predicted more accurately. The deviation between the maximum measured and predicted winding temperature is less than 2.4%
The application of model with lumped parameters for transient condition analyses of NPP
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stankovic, B.; Stevanovic, V.
1985-01-01
The transient behaviour of NPP Krsko during the accident of pressurizer spray valve stuck open has been simulated y lumped parameters model of the PWR coolant system components, developed at the faculty of Mechanical Engineering, University of Belgrade. The elementary volumes which are characterised by the process and state parameters, and by junctions which are characterised by the geometrical and flow parameters are basic structure of physical model. The process parameters obtained by the model RESI, show qualitative agreement with the measured valves, in a degree in which the actions of reactor safety engineered system and emergency core cooling system are adequately modelled; in spite of the elementary physical model structure and only the modelling of thermal process in reactor core and equilibrium conditions of pressurizer and steam generator. The pressurizer pressure and liquid level predicted by the non-equilibrium pressurizer model SOP show good agreement until the HIPS (high pressure pumps) is activated. (author)
Online State Space Model Parameter Estimation in Synchronous Machines
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Z. Gallehdari
2014-06-01
The suggested approach is evaluated for a sample synchronous machine model. Estimated parameters are tested for different inputs at different operating conditions. The effect of noise is also considered in this study. Simulation results show that the proposed approach provides good accuracy for parameter estimation.
Bates, P. D.; Neal, J. C.; Fewtrell, T. J.
2012-12-01
In this we paper we consider two related questions. First, we address the issue of how much physical complexity is necessary in a model in order to simulate floodplain inundation to within validation data error. This is achieved through development of a single code/multiple physics hydraulic model (LISFLOOD-FP) where different degrees of complexity can be switched on or off. Different configurations of this code are applied to four benchmark test cases, and compared to the results of a number of industry standard models. Second we address the issue of how parameter sensitivity and transferability change with increasing complexity using numerical experiments with models of different physical and geometric intricacy. Hydraulic models are a good example system with which to address such generic modelling questions as: (1) they have a strong physical basis; (2) there is only one set of equations to solve; (3) they require only topography and boundary conditions as input data; and (4) they typically require only a single free parameter, namely boundary friction. In terms of complexity required we show that for the problem of sub-critical floodplain inundation a number of codes of different dimensionality and resolution can be found to fit uncertain model validation data equally well, and that in this situation Occam's razor emerges as a useful logic to guide model selection. We find also find that model skill usually improves more rapidly with increases in model spatial resolution than increases in physical complexity, and that standard approaches to testing hydraulic models against laboratory data or analytical solutions may fail to identify this important fact. Lastly, we find that in benchmark testing studies significant differences can exist between codes with identical numerical solution techniques as a result of auxiliary choices regarding the specifics of model implementation that are frequently unreported by code developers. As a consequence, making sound
Retrospective forecast of ETAS model with daily parameters estimate
Falcone, Giuseppe; Murru, Maura; Console, Rodolfo; Marzocchi, Warner; Zhuang, Jiancang
2016-04-01
We present a retrospective ETAS (Epidemic Type of Aftershock Sequence) model based on the daily updating of free parameters during the background, the learning and the test phase of a seismic sequence. The idea was born after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The CSEP (Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability) Center in Japan provided an appropriate testing benchmark for the five 1-day submitted models. Of all the models, only one was able to successfully predict the number of events that really happened. This result was verified using both the real time and the revised catalogs. The main cause of the failure was in the underestimation of the forecasted events, due to model parameters maintained fixed during the test. Moreover, the absence in the learning catalog of an event similar to the magnitude of the mainshock (M9.0), which drastically changed the seismicity in the area, made the learning parameters not suitable to describe the real seismicity. As an example of this methodological development we show the evolution of the model parameters during the last two strong seismic sequences in Italy: the 2009 L'Aquila and the 2012 Reggio Emilia episodes. The achievement of the model with daily updated parameters is compared with that of same model where the parameters remain fixed during the test time.
Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kaylie Rasmuson; Kurt Rautenstrauch
2003-06-20
This analysis is one of nine technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. It documents input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCF). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in the biosphere Technical Work Plan (TWP, BSC 2003a). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development and therefore not available at the time this document is issued. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003b) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters. This analysis report, ANL-MGR-MD-000006, ''Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. This report defines and justifies values for twelve parameters required in the biosphere model. These parameters are related to use of contaminated groundwater to grow crops. The parameter values recommended in this report are used in the soil, plant, and carbon-14 submodels of the ERMYN.
Lumped-parameter modeling of PWR downcomer and pressurizer for LOCA conditions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rohatgi, U.S.; Saha, P.; Dubow, A.A.
1978-01-01
Two lumped-parameter models, one for a PWR downcomer and the other for a pressurizer, are presented. The models are based on the transient, nonhomogeneous, drift-flux description of two-phase flow, and are suitable for simulating a hypothetical LOCA condition. Effects of thermal nonequilibrium are incorporated in the downcomer model, whereas the pressurizer model can track the interfaces among various flow regimes. Semiimplicit numerical schemes are used for solution. Encouraging results have been obtained for both the models. (author)
Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Population Growth
Winkel, Brian J.
2011-01-01
We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of population growth, specifically logistic growth models and two-species competition models. We discuss student-evolved strategies and offer "Mathematica" code for a gradient search approach. We use historical (1930s) data from microbial studies of the Russian biologist,…
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ester L. Pastor
2015-10-01
Full Text Available Mesoporous silicon has become a material of high interest for drug delivery due to its outstanding internal surface area and inherent biodegradability. We have previously reported the preparation of mesoporous silicon microparticles (MS-MPs synthesized by an advantageous electrochemical method, and showed that due to their inner structure they can adsorb proteins in amounts exceeding the mass of the carrier itself. Protein release from these MS-MPs showed low burst effect and fast delivery kinetics with complete release in a few hours. In this work, we explored if tailoring the size of the inner pores of the particles would retard the protein release process. To address this hypothesis, three new MS-MPs prototypes were prepared by electrochemical synthesis, and the resulting carriers were characterized for morphology, particle size, and pore structure. All MS-MP prototypes had 90 µm mean particle size, but depending on the current density applied for synthesis, pore size changed between 5 and 13 nm. The model protein α-chymotrypsinogen was loaded into MS-MPs by adsorption and solvent evaporation. In the subsequent release experiments, no burst release of the protein was detected for any prototype. However, prototypes with larger pores (>10 nm reached 100% release in 24–48 h, whereas prototypes with small mesopores (<6 nm still retained most of their cargo after 96 h. MS-MPs with ∼6 nm pores were loaded with the osteogenic factor BMP7, and sustained release of this protein for up to two weeks was achieved. In conclusion, our results confirm that tailoring pore size can modify protein release from MS-MPs, and that prototypes with potential therapeutic utility for regional delivery of osteogenic factors can be prepared by convenient techniques.
Radon decay product in-door behaviour - parameter, measurement method, and model review
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Scofield, P.
1988-01-01
This report reviews parameters used to characterize indoor radon daughter behavior and concentrations. Certain parameters that affect indoor radon daughter concentrations are described and the values obtained experimentally or theoretically are summarized. Radon daughter measurement methods are reviewed, such as, PAEC, unattached daughters, particle size distributions, and plateout measurement methods. In addition, certain radon pressure driven/diffusion models and indoor radon daughter models are briefly described. (orig.)
Parameters Calculation of ZnO Surge Arrester Models by Genetic Algorithms
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. Bayadi
2006-09-01
Full Text Available This paper proposes to provide a new technique based on the genetic algorithm to obtain the best possible series of values of the parameters of the ZnO surge arresters models. The validity of the predicted parameters is then checked by comparing the results predicted with the experimental results available in the literature. Using the ATP-EMTP package an application of the arrester model on network system studies is presented and discussed.
A new approach to the extraction of single exponential diode model parameters
Ortiz-Conde, Adelmo; García-Sánchez, Francisco J.
2018-06-01
A new integration method is presented for the extraction of the parameters of a single exponential diode model with series resistance from the measured forward I-V characteristics. The extraction is performed using auxiliary functions based on the integration of the data which allow to isolate the effects of each of the model parameters. A differentiation method is also presented for data with low level of experimental noise. Measured and simulated data are used to verify the applicability of both proposed method. Physical insight about the validity of the model is also obtained by using the proposed graphical determinations of the parameters.
Luminescence model with quantum impact parameter for low energy ions
Cruz-Galindo, H S; Martínez-Davalos, A; Belmont-Moreno, E; Galindo, S
2002-01-01
We have modified an analytical model of induced light production by energetic ions interacting in scintillating materials. The original model is based on the distribution of energy deposited by secondary electrons produced along the ion's track. The range of scattered electrons, and thus the energy distribution, depends on a classical impact parameter between the electron and the ion's track. The only adjustable parameter of the model is the quenching density rho sub q. The modification here presented, consists in proposing a quantum impact parameter that leads to a better fit of the model to the experimental data at low incident ion energies. The light output response of CsI(Tl) detectors to low energy ions (<3 MeV/A) is fitted with the modified model and comparison is made to the original model.
Personalization of models with many model parameters: an efficient sensitivity analysis approach.
Donders, W P; Huberts, W; van de Vosse, F N; Delhaas, T
2015-10-01
Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis are indispensable for patient-specific applications of models that enhance diagnosis or aid decision-making. Variance-based sensitivity analysis methods, which apportion each fraction of the output uncertainty (variance) to the effects of individual input parameters or their interactions, are considered the gold standard. The variance portions are called the Sobol sensitivity indices and can be estimated by a Monte Carlo (MC) approach (e.g., Saltelli's method [1]) or by employing a metamodel (e.g., the (generalized) polynomial chaos expansion (gPCE) [2, 3]). All these methods require a large number of model evaluations when estimating the Sobol sensitivity indices for models with many parameters [4]. To reduce the computational cost, we introduce a two-step approach. In the first step, a subset of important parameters is identified for each output of interest using the screening method of Morris [5]. In the second step, a quantitative variance-based sensitivity analysis is performed using gPCE. Efficient sampling strategies are introduced to minimize the number of model runs required to obtain the sensitivity indices for models considering multiple outputs. The approach is tested using a model that was developed for predicting post-operative flows after creation of a vascular access for renal failure patients. We compare the sensitivity indices obtained with the novel two-step approach with those obtained from a reference analysis that applies Saltelli's MC method. The two-step approach was found to yield accurate estimates of the sensitivity indices at two orders of magnitude lower computational cost. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Model-based verification method for solving the parameter uncertainty in the train control system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cheng, Ruijun; Zhou, Jin; Chen, Dewang; Song, Yongduan
2016-01-01
This paper presents a parameter analysis method to solve the parameter uncertainty problem for hybrid system and explore the correlation of key parameters for distributed control system. For improving the reusability of control model, the proposed approach provides the support for obtaining the constraint sets of all uncertain parameters in the abstract linear hybrid automata (LHA) model when satisfying the safety requirements of the train control system. Then, in order to solve the state space explosion problem, the online verification method is proposed to monitor the operating status of high-speed trains online because of the real-time property of the train control system. Furthermore, we construct the LHA formal models of train tracking model and movement authority (MA) generation process as cases to illustrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method. In the first case, we obtain the constraint sets of uncertain parameters to avoid collision between trains. In the second case, the correlation of position report cycle and MA generation cycle is analyzed under both the normal and the abnormal condition influenced by packet-loss factor. Finally, considering stochastic characterization of time distributions and real-time feature of moving block control system, the transient probabilities of wireless communication process are obtained by stochastic time petri nets. - Highlights: • We solve the parameters uncertainty problem by using model-based method. • We acquire the parameter constraint sets by verifying linear hybrid automata models. • Online verification algorithms are designed to monitor the high-speed trains. • We analyze the correlation of key parameters and uncritical parameters. • The transient probabilities are obtained by using reliability analysis.
Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
K. Rasmuson; K. Rautenstrauch
2004-01-01
This analysis is one of 10 technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) (i.e., the biosphere model). It documents development of agricultural and environmental input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters
Uncertainty of Modal Parameters Estimated by ARMA Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jensen, Jacob Laigaard; Brincker, Rune; Rytter, Anders
1990-01-01
In this paper the uncertainties of identified modal parameters such as eidenfrequencies and damping ratios are assed. From the measured response of dynamic excited structures the modal parameters may be identified and provide important structural knowledge. However the uncertainty of the parameters...... by simulation study of a lightly damped single degree of freedom system. Identification by ARMA models has been choosen as system identification method. It is concluded that both the sampling interval and number of sampled points may play a significant role with respect to the statistical errors. Furthermore......, it is shown that the model errors may also contribute significantly to the uncertainty....
Kumar, B Shiva; Venkateswarlu, Ch
2014-08-01
The complex nature of biological reactions in biofilm reactors often poses difficulties in analyzing such reactors experimentally. Mathematical models could be very useful for their design and analysis. However, application of biofilm reactor models to practical problems proves somewhat ineffective due to the lack of knowledge of accurate kinetic models and uncertainty in model parameters. In this work, we propose an inverse modeling approach based on tabu search (TS) to estimate the parameters of kinetic and film thickness models. TS is used to estimate these parameters as a consequence of the validation of the mathematical models of the process with the aid of measured data obtained from an experimental fixed-bed anaerobic biofilm reactor involving the treatment of pharmaceutical industry wastewater. The results evaluated for different modeling configurations of varying degrees of complexity illustrate the effectiveness of TS for accurate estimation of kinetic and film thickness model parameters of the biofilm process. The results show that the two-dimensional mathematical model with Edward kinetics (with its optimum parameters as mu(max)rho(s)/Y = 24.57, Ks = 1.352 and Ki = 102.36) and three-parameter film thickness expression (with its estimated parameters as a = 0.289 x 10(-5), b = 1.55 x 10(-4) and c = 15.2 x 10(-6)) better describes the biofilm reactor treating the industry wastewater.
SPOTting Model Parameters Using a Ready-Made Python Package.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tobias Houska
Full Text Available The choice for specific parameter estimation methods is often more dependent on its availability than its performance. We developed SPOTPY (Statistical Parameter Optimization Tool, an open source python package containing a comprehensive set of methods typically used to calibrate, analyze and optimize parameters for a wide range of ecological models. SPOTPY currently contains eight widely used algorithms, 11 objective functions, and can sample from eight parameter distributions. SPOTPY has a model-independent structure and can be run in parallel from the workstation to large computation clusters using the Message Passing Interface (MPI. We tested SPOTPY in five different case studies to parameterize the Rosenbrock, Griewank and Ackley functions, a one-dimensional physically based soil moisture routine, where we searched for parameters of the van Genuchten-Mualem function and a calibration of a biogeochemistry model with different objective functions. The case studies reveal that the implemented SPOTPY methods can be used for any model with just a minimal amount of code for maximal power of parameter optimization. They further show the benefit of having one package at hand that includes number of well performing parameter search methods, since not every case study can be solved sufficiently with every algorithm or every objective function.
Parameter resolution in two models for cell survival after radiation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Di Cera, E.; Andreasi Bassi, F.; Arcovito, G.
1989-01-01
The resolvability of model parameters for the linear-quadratic and the repair-misrepair models for cell survival after radiation has been studied by Monte Carlo simulations as a function of the number of experimental data points collected in a given dose range and the experimental error. Statistical analysis of the results reveals the range of experimental conditions under which the model parameters can be resolved with sufficient accuracy, and points out some differences in the operational aspects of the two models. (orig.)
Updating parameters of the chicken processing line model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kurowicka, Dorota; Nauta, Maarten; Jozwiak, Katarzyna
2010-01-01
A mathematical model of chicken processing that quantitatively describes the transmission of Campylobacter on chicken carcasses from slaughter to chicken meat product has been developed in Nauta et al. (2005). This model was quantified with expert judgment. Recent availability of data allows...... updating parameters of the model to better describe processes observed in slaughterhouses. We propose Bayesian updating as a suitable technique to update expert judgment with microbiological data. Berrang and Dickens’s data are used to demonstrate performance of this method in updating parameters...... of the chicken processing line model....
Lumped-Parameter Models for Wind-Turbine Footings on Layered Ground
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Lars; Liingaard, Morten
2007-01-01
The design of modern wind turbines is typically based on lifetime analyses using aeroelastic codes. In this regard, the impedance of the foundations must be described accurately without increasing the overall size of the computational model significantly. This may be obtained by the fitting...... of a lumped-parameter model to the results of a rigorous model or experimental results. In this paper, guidelines are given for the formulation of such lumped-parameter models and examples are given in which the models are utilised for the analysis of a wind turbine supported by a surface footing on a layered...
MODELING OF FUEL SPRAY CHARACTERISTICS AND DIESEL COMBUSTION CHAMBER PARAMETERS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
G. M. Kukharonak
2011-01-01
Full Text Available The computer model for coordination of fuel spray characteristics with diesel combustion chamber parameters has been created in the paper. The model allows to observe fuel sprays develоpment in diesel cylinder at any moment of injection, to calculate characteristics of fuel sprays with due account of a shape and dimensions of a combustion chamber, timely to change fuel injection characteristics and supercharging parameters, shape and dimensions of a combustion chamber. Moreover the computer model permits to determine parameters of holes in an injector nozzle that provides the required fuel sprays characteristics at the stage of designing a diesel engine. Combustion chamber parameters for 4ЧН11/12.5 diesel engine have been determined in the paper.
See, J. J.; Jamaian, S. S.; Salleh, R. M.; Nor, M. E.; Aman, F.
2018-04-01
This research aims to estimate the parameters of Monod model of microalgae Botryococcus Braunii sp growth by the Least-Squares method. Monod equation is a non-linear equation which can be transformed into a linear equation form and it is solved by implementing the Least-Squares linear regression method. Meanwhile, Gauss-Newton method is an alternative method to solve the non-linear Least-Squares problem with the aim to obtain the parameters value of Monod model by minimizing the sum of square error ( SSE). As the result, the parameters of the Monod model for microalgae Botryococcus Braunii sp can be estimated by the Least-Squares method. However, the estimated parameters value obtained by the non-linear Least-Squares method are more accurate compared to the linear Least-Squares method since the SSE of the non-linear Least-Squares method is less than the linear Least-Squares method.
Seasonal and spatial variation in broadleaf forest model parameters
Groenendijk, M.; van der Molen, M. K.; Dolman, A. J.
2009-04-01
Process based, coupled ecosystem carbon, energy and water cycle models are used with the ultimate goal to project the effect of future climate change on the terrestrial carbon cycle. A typical dilemma in such exercises is how much detail the model must be given to describe the observations reasonably realistic while also be general. We use a simple vegetation model (5PM) with five model parameters to study the variability of the parameters. These parameters are derived from the observed carbon and water fluxes from the FLUXNET database. For 15 broadleaf forests the model parameters were derived for different time resolutions. It appears that in general for all forests, the correlation coefficient between observed and simulated carbon and water fluxes improves with a higher parameter time resolution. The quality of the simulations is thus always better when a higher time resolution is used. These results show that annual parameters are not capable of properly describing weather effects on ecosystem fluxes, and that two day time resolution yields the best results. A first indication of the climate constraints can be found by the seasonal variation of the covariance between Jm, which describes the maximum electron transport for photosynthesis, and climate variables. A general seasonality we found is that during winter the covariance with all climate variables is zero. Jm increases rapidly after initial spring warming, resulting in a large covariance with air temperature and global radiation. During summer Jm is less variable, but co-varies negatively with air temperature and vapour pressure deficit and positively with soil water content. A temperature response appears during spring and autumn for broadleaf forests. This shows that an annual model parameter cannot be representative for the entire year. And relations with mean annual temperature are not possible. During summer the photosynthesis parameters are constrained by water availability, soil water content and
Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
M. Wasiolek
2004-09-10
This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment for the license application (TSPA-LA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA-LA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) (TWP). This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA). This report is one of the five reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model and the mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed description of the model input parameters. The output of this report is used as direct input in the ''Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' and in the ''Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios, respectively. The purpose of this analysis was to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or in volcanic ash). The analysis
Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
M. Wasiolek
2004-01-01
This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment for the license application (TSPA-LA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA-LA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) (TWP). This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA). This report is one of the five reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model and the mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed description of the model input parameters. The output of this report is used as direct input in the ''Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' and in the ''Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios, respectively. The purpose of this analysis was to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or in volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573])
Taoka, Toshiaki; Kawai, Hisashi; Nakane, Toshiki; Hori, Saeka; Ochi, Tomoko; Miyasaka, Toshiteru; Sakamoto, Masahiko; Kichikawa, Kimihiko; Naganawa, Shinji
2016-09-01
The "K2" value is a factor that represents the vascular permeability of tumors and can be calculated from datasets obtained with the dynamic susceptibility contrast (DSC) method. The purpose of the current study was to correlate K2 with Ktrans, which is a well-established permeability parameter obtained with the dynamic contrast enhance (DCE) method, and determine the usefulness of K2 for glioma grading with histogram analysis. The subjects were 22 glioma patients (Grade II: 5, III: 6, IV: 11) who underwent DSC studies, including eight patients in which both DSC and DCE studies were performed on separate days within 10days. We performed histogram analysis of regions of interest of the tumors and acquired 20th percentile values for leakage-corrected cerebral blood volume (rCBV20%ile), K2 (K220%ile), and for patients who underwent a DCE study, Ktrans (Ktrans20%ile). We evaluated the correlation between K220%ile and Ktrans20%ile and the statistical difference between rCBV20%ile and K220%ile. We found a statistically significant correlation between K220%ile and Ktrans20%ile (r=0.717, pK220%ile showed a statistically significant (pK2 value calculated from the DSC dataset, which can be obtained with a short acquisition time, showed a correlation with Ktrans obtained with the DCE method and may be useful for glioma grading when analyzed with histogram analysis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
K. Rautenstrauch
2004-09-10
This analysis is one of 10 reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception.
Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
K. Rautenstrauch
2004-01-01
This analysis is one of 10 reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception
Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wasiolek, M. A.
2003-01-01
This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2003 [163602]). Some documents in Figure 1-1 may be under development and not available when this report is issued. This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA), but access to the listed documents is not required to understand the contents of this report. This report is one of the reports that develops input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes the conceptual model, the mathematical model, and the input parameters. The purpose of this analysis is to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2003 [163602]). This analysis develops values of parameters associated with many features, events, and processes (FEPs) applicable to the reference biosphere (DTN: M00303SEPFEPS2.000 [162452]), which are addressed in the biosphere model (BSC 2003 [160699]). The treatment of these FEPs is described in BSC (2003 [160699], Section 6.2). Parameter values
Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
M. A. Wasiolek
2003-06-27
This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2003 [163602]). Some documents in Figure 1-1 may be under development and not available when this report is issued. This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA), but access to the listed documents is not required to understand the contents of this report. This report is one of the reports that develops input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes the conceptual model, the mathematical model, and the input parameters. The purpose of this analysis is to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2003 [163602]). This analysis develops values of parameters associated with many features, events, and processes (FEPs) applicable to the reference biosphere (DTN: M00303SEPFEPS2.000 [162452]), which are addressed in the biosphere model (BSC 2003 [160699]). The treatment of these FEPs is described in BSC (2003 [160699
Reflector modelization for neutronic diffusion and parameters identification
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Argaud, J.P.
1993-04-01
Physical parameters of neutronic diffusion equations can be adjusted to decrease calculations-measurements errors. The reflector being always difficult to modelize, we choose to elaborate a new reflector model and to use the parameters of this model as adjustment coefficients in the identification procedure. Using theoretical results, and also the physical behaviour of neutronic flux solutions, the reflector model consists then in its replacement by boundary conditions for the diffusion equations on the core only. This theoretical result of non-local operator relations leads then to some discrete approximations by taking into account the multiscaled behaviour, on the core-reflector interface, of neutronic diffusion solutions. The resulting model of this approach is then compared with previous reflector modelizations, and first results indicate that this new model gives the same representation of reflector for the core than previous. (author). 12 refs
On the validity of evolutionary models with site-specific parameters.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Konrad Scheffler
Full Text Available Evolutionary models that make use of site-specific parameters have recently been criticized on the grounds that parameter estimates obtained under such models can be unreliable and lack theoretical guarantees of convergence. We present a simulation study providing empirical evidence that a simple version of the models in question does exhibit sensible convergence behavior and that additional taxa, despite not being independent of each other, lead to improved parameter estimates. Although it would be desirable to have theoretical guarantees of this, we argue that such guarantees would not be sufficient to justify the use of these models in practice. Instead, we emphasize the importance of taking the variance of parameter estimates into account rather than blindly trusting point estimates - this is standardly done by using the models to construct statistical hypothesis tests, which are then validated empirically via simulation studies.
Constraint on Parameters of Inverse Compton Scattering Model for ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
B2319+60, two parameters of inverse Compton scattering model, the initial Lorentz factor and the factor of energy loss of relativistic particles are constrained. Key words. Pulsar—inverse Compton scattering—emission mechanism. 1. Introduction. Among various kinds of models for pulsar radio emission, the inverse ...
Checking the new IRI model: The bottomside B parameters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mosert, M.; Buresova, D.; Miro, G.; Lazo, B.; Ezquer, R.
2003-01-01
Electron density profiles obtained at Pruhonice (50.0, 15.0), El Arenosillo (37.1, 353.2) and Havana (23, 278) were used to check the bottom-side B parameters BO (thickness parameter) and B1 (shape parameter) predicted by the new IRI - 2000 version. The electron density profiles were derived from ionograms using the ARP technique. The data base includes daytime and nighttime ionograms recorded under different seasonal and solar activity conditions. Comparisons with IRI predictions were also done. The analysis shows that: a) The parameter B1 given by IRI 2000 reproduces better the observed ARP values than the IRI-90 version and b) The observed BO values are in general well reproduced by both IRI versions: IRI-90 and IRI-2000. (author)
Checking the new IRI model The bottomside B parameters
Mosert, M; Ezquer, R; Lazo, B; Miro, G
2002-01-01
Electron density profiles obtained at Pruhonice (50.0, 15.0), El Arenosillo (37.1, 353.2) and Havana (23, 278) were used to check the bottom-side B parameters BO (thickness parameter) and B1 (shape parameter) predicted by the new IRI - 2000 version. The electron density profiles were derived from ionograms using the ARP technique. The data base includes daytime and nighttime ionograms recorded under different seasonal and solar activity conditions. Comparisons with IRI predictions were also done. The analysis shows that: a) The parameter B1 given by IRI 2000 reproduces better the observed ARP values than the IRI-90 version and b) The observed BO values are in general well reproduced by both IRI versions: IRI-90 and IRI-2000.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Galiano, G.; Grau, A.
1994-01-01
An intelligent computer program has been developed to obtain the mathematical formulae to compute the probabilities and reduced energies of the different atomic rearrangement pathways following electron-capture decay. Creation and annihilation operators for Auger and X processes have been introduced. Taking into account the symmetries associated with each process, 262 different pathways were obtained. This model allows us to obtain the influence of the M-electro capture in the counting efficiency when the atomic number of the nuclide is high. (Author)
A software for parameter estimation in dynamic models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Yuceer
2008-12-01
Full Text Available A common problem in dynamic systems is to determine parameters in an equation used to represent experimental data. The goal is to determine the values of model parameters that provide the best fit to measured data, generally based on some type of least squares or maximum likelihood criterion. In the most general case, this requires the solution of a nonlinear and frequently non-convex optimization problem. Some of the available software lack in generality, while others do not provide ease of use. A user-interactive parameter estimation software was needed for identifying kinetic parameters. In this work we developed an integration based optimization approach to provide a solution to such problems. For easy implementation of the technique, a parameter estimation software (PARES has been developed in MATLAB environment. When tested with extensive example problems from literature, the suggested approach is proven to provide good agreement between predicted and observed data within relatively less computing time and iterations.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jeng-Wen Lin
2009-01-01
Full Text Available This paper proposes a statistical confidence interval based nonlinear model parameter refinement approach for the health monitoring of structural systems subjected to seismic excitations. The developed model refinement approach uses the 95% confidence interval of the estimated structural parameters to determine their statistical significance in a least-squares regression setting. When the parameters' confidence interval covers the zero value, it is statistically sustainable to truncate such parameters. The remaining parameters will repetitively undergo such parameter sifting process for model refinement until all the parameters' statistical significance cannot be further improved. This newly developed model refinement approach is implemented for the series models of multivariable polynomial expansions: the linear, the Taylor series, and the power series model, leading to a more accurate identification as well as a more controllable design for system vibration control. Because the statistical regression based model refinement approach is intrinsically used to process a “batch” of data and obtain an ensemble average estimation such as the structural stiffness, the Kalman filter and one of its extended versions is introduced to the refined power series model for structural health monitoring.
Determination of appropriate models and parameters for premixing calculations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Park, Ik-Kyu; Kim, Jong-Hwan; Min, Beong-Tae; Hong, Seong-Wan
2008-03-15
The purpose of the present work is to use experiments that have been performed at Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe during about the last ten years for determining the most appropriate models and parameters for premixing calculations. The results of a QUEOS experiment are used to fix the parameters concerning heat transfer. The QUEOS experiments are especially suited for this purpose as they have been performed with small hot solid spheres. Therefore the area of heat exchange is known. With the heat transfer parameters fixed in this way, a PREMIX experiment is recalculated. These experiments have been performed with molten alumina (Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}) as a simulant of corium. Its initial temperature is 2600 K. With these experiments the models and parameters for jet and drop break-up are tested.
Parameter identification in a nonlinear nuclear reactor model using quasilinearization
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Barreto, J.M.; Martins Neto, A.F.; Tanomaru, N.
1980-09-01
Parameter identification in a nonlinear, lumped parameter, nuclear reactor model is carried out using discrete output power measurements during the transient caused by an external reactivity change. In order to minimize the difference between the model and the reactor power responses, the parameter promt neutron generation time and a parameter in fuel temperature reactivity coefficient equation are adjusted using quasilinearization. The influences of the external reactivity disturbance, the number and frequency of measurements and the measurement noise level on the method accuracy and rate of convergence are analysed through simulation. Procedures for the design of the identification experiments are suggested. The method proved to be very effective for low level noise measurements. (Author) [pt
Determination of appropriate models and parameters for premixing calculations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Park, Ik-Kyu; Kim, Jong-Hwan; Min, Beong-Tae; Hong, Seong-Wan
2008-03-01
The purpose of the present work is to use experiments that have been performed at Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe during about the last ten years for determining the most appropriate models and parameters for premixing calculations. The results of a QUEOS experiment are used to fix the parameters concerning heat transfer. The QUEOS experiments are especially suited for this purpose as they have been performed with small hot solid spheres. Therefore the area of heat exchange is known. With the heat transfer parameters fixed in this way, a PREMIX experiment is recalculated. These experiments have been performed with molten alumina (Al 2 O 3 ) as a simulant of corium. Its initial temperature is 2600 K. With these experiments the models and parameters for jet and drop break-up are tested
Soil-related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
A. J. Smith
2003-01-01
This analysis is one of the technical reports containing documentation of the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN biosphere model is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2003 [163602]). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development at the time this report is issued and therefore not available. This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this report. This report, ''Soil Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five analysis reports that develop input parameters for use in the ERMYN model. This report is the source documentation for the six biosphere parameters identified in Table 1-1. ''The Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. The purpose of this analysis was to develop the biosphere model parameters needed to evaluate doses from pathways associated with the accumulation and depletion of radionuclides in the soil. These parameters support the calculation of radionuclide concentrations in soil from on-going irrigation and ash
Parameters Optimization and Application to Glutamate Fermentation Model Using SVM
Zhang, Xiangsheng; Pan, Feng
2015-01-01
Aimed at the parameters optimization in support vector machine (SVM) for glutamate fermentation modelling, a new method is developed. It optimizes the SVM parameters via an improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO) algorithm which has better global searching ability. The algorithm includes detecting and handling the local convergence and exhibits strong ability to avoid being trapped in local minima. The material step of the method was shown. Simulation experiments demonstrate the effective...
Parameters Optimization and Application to Glutamate Fermentation Model Using SVM
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiangsheng Zhang
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Aimed at the parameters optimization in support vector machine (SVM for glutamate fermentation modelling, a new method is developed. It optimizes the SVM parameters via an improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO algorithm which has better global searching ability. The algorithm includes detecting and handling the local convergence and exhibits strong ability to avoid being trapped in local minima. The material step of the method was shown. Simulation experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.
A Bayesian framework for parameter estimation in dynamical models.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Flávio Codeço Coelho
Full Text Available Mathematical models in biology are powerful tools for the study and exploration of complex dynamics. Nevertheless, bringing theoretical results to an agreement with experimental observations involves acknowledging a great deal of uncertainty intrinsic to our theoretical representation of a real system. Proper handling of such uncertainties is key to the successful usage of models to predict experimental or field observations. This problem has been addressed over the years by many tools for model calibration and parameter estimation. In this article we present a general framework for uncertainty analysis and parameter estimation that is designed to handle uncertainties associated with the modeling of dynamic biological systems while remaining agnostic as to the type of model used. We apply the framework to fit an SIR-like influenza transmission model to 7 years of incidence data in three European countries: Belgium, the Netherlands and Portugal.
Optimization-Based Inverse Identification of the Parameters of a Concrete Cap Material Model
Král, Petr; Hokeš, Filip; Hušek, Martin; Kala, Jiří; Hradil, Petr
2017-10-01
Issues concerning the advanced numerical analysis of concrete building structures in sophisticated computing systems currently require the involvement of nonlinear mechanics tools. The efforts to design safer, more durable and mainly more economically efficient concrete structures are supported via the use of advanced nonlinear concrete material models and the geometrically nonlinear approach. The application of nonlinear mechanics tools undoubtedly presents another step towards the approximation of the real behaviour of concrete building structures within the framework of computer numerical simulations. However, the success rate of this application depends on having a perfect understanding of the behaviour of the concrete material models used and having a perfect understanding of the used material model parameters meaning. The effective application of nonlinear concrete material models within computer simulations often becomes very problematic because these material models very often contain parameters (material constants) whose values are difficult to obtain. However, getting of the correct values of material parameters is very important to ensure proper function of a concrete material model used. Today, one possibility, which permits successful solution of the mentioned problem, is the use of optimization algorithms for the purpose of the optimization-based inverse material parameter identification. Parameter identification goes hand in hand with experimental investigation while it trying to find parameter values of the used material model so that the resulting data obtained from the computer simulation will best approximate the experimental data. This paper is focused on the optimization-based inverse identification of the parameters of a concrete cap material model which is known under the name the Continuous Surface Cap Model. Within this paper, material parameters of the model are identified on the basis of interaction between nonlinear computer simulations
Comparison of model results obtained with several European regional air quality models
Hass, H.; Builtjes, P.J.H.; Simpson, D.; Stern, R.
1997-01-01
An intercomparison study has been performed with four photo-oxidant dispersion models (EMEP, EURAD, LOTOS and REM3) which are currently capable of performing photo-oxidant formation calculations over larger path of Europe. The models, in principle, were run in the mode in which they are normally
Reservoir theory, groundwater transit time distributions, and lumped parameter models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Etcheverry, D.; Perrochet, P.
1999-01-01
The relation between groundwater residence times and transit times is given by the reservoir theory. It allows to calculate theoretical transit time distributions in a deterministic way, analytically, or on numerical models. Two analytical solutions validates the piston flow and the exponential model for simple conceptual flow systems. A numerical solution of a hypothetical regional groundwater flow shows that lumped parameter models could be applied in some cases to large-scale, heterogeneous aquifers. (author)
Ramadan, Ahmed; Boss, Connor; Choi, Jongeun; Peter Reeves, N; Cholewicki, Jacek; Popovich, John M; Radcliffe, Clark J
2018-07-01
Estimating many parameters of biomechanical systems with limited data may achieve good fit but may also increase 95% confidence intervals in parameter estimates. This results in poor identifiability in the estimation problem. Therefore, we propose a novel method to select sensitive biomechanical model parameters that should be estimated, while fixing the remaining parameters to values obtained from preliminary estimation. Our method relies on identifying the parameters to which the measurement output is most sensitive. The proposed method is based on the Fisher information matrix (FIM). It was compared against the nonlinear least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method to guide modelers on the pros and cons of our FIM method. We present an application identifying a biomechanical parametric model of a head position-tracking task for ten human subjects. Using measured data, our method (1) reduced model complexity by only requiring five out of twelve parameters to be estimated, (2) significantly reduced parameter 95% confidence intervals by up to 89% of the original confidence interval, (3) maintained goodness of fit measured by variance accounted for (VAF) at 82%, (4) reduced computation time, where our FIM method was 164 times faster than the LASSO method, and (5) selected similar sensitive parameters to the LASSO method, where three out of five selected sensitive parameters were shared by FIM and LASSO methods.
Inverse modeling for the determination of hydrogeological parameters of a two-phase system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Finsterle, S.
1993-02-01
Investigations related to the disposal of radioactive wastes in Switzerland consider formations containing natural gas as potential rocks for a repository. Moreover, gas generation in the repository itself may lead to an unsaturated zone of significant extent and impact on the system's performance. The site characterization procedure requires the estimation of hydraulic properties being used as input parameters for a two-phase two-component numerical simulator. In this study, estimates of gas-related formation parameters are obtained by inverse modeling. Based on discrete observations of the system's state, model parameters can be estimated within the framework of a given conceptual model by means of optimization techniques. This study presents the theoretical background that related field data to the model parameters. A parameter estimation procedure is proposed and implemented in a computer code for automatic model calibration. This tool allows identification of key parameters affecting flow of water and gas in porous media. The inverse modeling approach is verified using data from a synthetic laboratory experiment. In addition, the Gas test performed at the Grimsel Test Site is analyzed in order to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed procedure when used with data from a real geologic environment. Estimation of hydrogeologic parameters by automatic model calibration improves the understanding of the two-phase flow processes and therefore increases the reliability of the subsequent simulation runs. (author) figs., tabs., refs
Inverse modeling for the determination of hydrogeological parameters of a two-phase system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Finsterle, S.
1993-01-01
Investigations related to the disposal of radioactive wastes in Switzerland are dealing with formations containing natural gas as potential host rock for a repository. Moreover, gas generation in the repository itself may lead to an unsaturated zone of significant extent and impact on the system's performance. The site characterization procedure requires the estimation of hydraulic properties being used as input parameters for a two-phase two-component numerical simulator. In this study, estimates of gas related formation parameters are obtained by inverse modeling. Based on discrete observations of the system's state, model parameters can be estimated within the framework of a given conceptual model by means of optimization techniques. This study presents the theoretical background that relates field data to the model parameters. A parameter estimation procedure is proposed and implemented in a computer code for automatic model calibration. This tool allows to identify key parameters affecting flow of water and gas in porous media. The inverse modeling approach is verified using data from a synthetic laboratory experiment. In addition, the Gastest performed at the Grimsel Test Site is analyzed in order to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed procedure when used with data from a real geologic environment. Estimation of hydrogeologic parameters by automatic model calibration improves the understanding of the two-phase flow processes and therefore increases the reliability of the subsequent simulation runs. (author) figs., tabs., 100 refs
SPOTting model parameters using a ready-made Python package
Houska, Tobias; Kraft, Philipp; Breuer, Lutz
2015-04-01
The selection and parameterization of reliable process descriptions in ecological modelling is driven by several uncertainties. The procedure is highly dependent on various criteria, like the used algorithm, the likelihood function selected and the definition of the prior parameter distributions. A wide variety of tools have been developed in the past decades to optimize parameters. Some of the tools are closed source. Due to this, the choice for a specific parameter estimation method is sometimes more dependent on its availability than the performance. A toolbox with a large set of methods can support users in deciding about the most suitable method. Further, it enables to test and compare different methods. We developed the SPOT (Statistical Parameter Optimization Tool), an open source python package containing a comprehensive set of modules, to analyze and optimize parameters of (environmental) models. SPOT comes along with a selected set of algorithms for parameter optimization and uncertainty analyses (Monte Carlo, MC; Latin Hypercube Sampling, LHS; Maximum Likelihood, MLE; Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC; Scuffled Complex Evolution, SCE-UA; Differential Evolution Markov Chain, DE-MCZ), together with several likelihood functions (Bias, (log-) Nash-Sutcliff model efficiency, Correlation Coefficient, Coefficient of Determination, Covariance, (Decomposed-, Relative-, Root-) Mean Squared Error, Mean Absolute Error, Agreement Index) and prior distributions (Binomial, Chi-Square, Dirichlet, Exponential, Laplace, (log-, multivariate-) Normal, Pareto, Poisson, Cauchy, Uniform, Weibull) to sample from. The model-independent structure makes it suitable to analyze a wide range of applications. We apply all algorithms of the SPOT package in three different case studies. Firstly, we investigate the response of the Rosenbrock function, where the MLE algorithm shows its strengths. Secondly, we study the Griewank function, which has a challenging response surface for
Modelling of intermittent microwave convective drying: parameter sensitivity
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhang Zhijun
2017-06-01
Full Text Available The reliability of the predictions of a mathematical model is a prerequisite to its utilization. A multiphase porous media model of intermittent microwave convective drying is developed based on the literature. The model considers the liquid water, gas and solid matrix inside of food. The model is simulated by COMSOL software. Its sensitivity parameter is analysed by changing the parameter values by ±20%, with the exception of several parameters. The sensitivity analysis of the process of the microwave power level shows that each parameter: ambient temperature, effective gas diffusivity, and evaporation rate constant, has significant effects on the process. However, the surface mass, heat transfer coefficient, relative and intrinsic permeability of the gas, and capillary diffusivity of water do not have a considerable effect. The evaporation rate constant has minimal parameter sensitivity with a ±20% value change, until it is changed 10-fold. In all results, the temperature and vapour pressure curves show the same trends as the moisture content curve. However, the water saturation at the medium surface and in the centre show different results. Vapour transfer is the major mass transfer phenomenon that affects the drying process.
Synchronous Generator Model Parameter Estimation Based on Noisy Dynamic Waveforms
Berhausen, Sebastian; Paszek, Stefan
2016-01-01
In recent years, there have occurred system failures in many power systems all over the world. They have resulted in a lack of power supply to a large number of recipients. To minimize the risk of occurrence of power failures, it is necessary to perform multivariate investigations, including simulations, of power system operating conditions. To conduct reliable simulations, the current base of parameters of the models of generating units, containing the models of synchronous generators, is necessary. In the paper, there is presented a method for parameter estimation of a synchronous generator nonlinear model based on the analysis of selected transient waveforms caused by introducing a disturbance (in the form of a pseudorandom signal) in the generator voltage regulation channel. The parameter estimation was performed by minimizing the objective function defined as a mean square error for deviations between the measurement waveforms and the waveforms calculated based on the generator mathematical model. A hybrid algorithm was used for the minimization of the objective function. In the paper, there is described a filter system used for filtering the noisy measurement waveforms. The calculation results of the model of a 44 kW synchronous generator installed on a laboratory stand of the Institute of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science of the Silesian University of Technology are also given. The presented estimation method can be successfully applied to parameter estimation of different models of high-power synchronous generators operating in a power system.
Parameter sensitivity analysis of a 1-D cold region lake model for land-surface schemes
Guerrero, José-Luis; Pernica, Patricia; Wheater, Howard; Mackay, Murray; Spence, Chris
2017-12-01
Lakes might be sentinels of climate change, but the uncertainty in their main feedback to the atmosphere - heat-exchange fluxes - is often not considered within climate models. Additionally, these fluxes are seldom measured, hindering critical evaluation of model output. Analysis of the Canadian Small Lake Model (CSLM), a one-dimensional integral lake model, was performed to assess its ability to reproduce diurnal and seasonal variations in heat fluxes and the sensitivity of simulated fluxes to changes in model parameters, i.e., turbulent transport parameters and the light extinction coefficient (Kd). A C++ open-source software package, Problem Solving environment for Uncertainty Analysis and Design Exploration (PSUADE), was used to perform sensitivity analysis (SA) and identify the parameters that dominate model behavior. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) was applied to quantify the fluxes' uncertainty, comparing daily-averaged eddy-covariance observations to the output of CSLM. Seven qualitative and two quantitative SA methods were tested, and the posterior likelihoods of the modeled parameters, obtained from the GLUE analysis, were used to determine the dominant parameters and the uncertainty in the modeled fluxes. Despite the ubiquity of the equifinality issue - different parameter-value combinations yielding equivalent results - the answer to the question was unequivocal: Kd, a measure of how much light penetrates the lake, dominates sensible and latent heat fluxes, and the uncertainty in their estimates is strongly related to the accuracy with which Kd is determined. This is important since accurate and continuous measurements of Kd could reduce modeling uncertainty.
On the role of modeling parameters in IMRT plan optimization
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Krause, Michael; Scherrer, Alexander; Thieke, Christian
2008-01-01
The formulation of optimization problems in intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) planning comprises the choice of various values such as function-specific parameters or constraint bounds. In current inverse planning programs that yield a single treatment plan for each optimization, it is often unclear how strongly these modeling parameters affect the resulting plan. This work investigates the mathematical concepts of elasticity and sensitivity to deal with this problem. An artificial planning case with a horse-shoe formed target with different opening angles surrounding a circular risk structure is studied. As evaluation functions the generalized equivalent uniform dose (EUD) and the average underdosage below and average overdosage beyond certain dose thresholds are used. A single IMRT plan is calculated for an exemplary parameter configuration. The elasticity and sensitivity of each parameter are then calculated without re-optimization, and the results are numerically verified. The results show the following. (1) elasticity can quantify the influence of a modeling parameter on the optimization result in terms of how strongly the objective function value varies under modifications of the parameter value. It also can describe how strongly the geometry of the involved planning structures affects the optimization result. (2) Based on the current parameter settings and corresponding treatment plan, sensitivity analysis can predict the optimization result for modified parameter values without re-optimization, and it can estimate the value intervals in which such predictions are valid. In conclusion, elasticity and sensitivity can provide helpful tools in inverse IMRT planning to identify the most critical parameters of an individual planning problem and to modify their values in an appropriate way
A compact cyclic plasticity model with parameter evolution
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Krenk, Steen; Tidemann, L.
2017-01-01
The paper presents a compact model for cyclic plasticity based on energy in terms of external and internal variables, and plastic yielding described by kinematic hardening and a flow potential with an additive term controlling the nonlinear cyclic hardening. The model is basically described by five...... parameters: external and internal stiffness, a yield stress and a limiting ultimate stress, and finally a parameter controlling the gradual development of plastic deformation. Calibration against numerous experimental results indicates that typically larger plastic strains develop than predicted...
Climate change decision-making: Model & parameter uncertainties explored
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Dowlatabadi, H.; Kandlikar, M.; Linville, C.
1995-12-31
A critical aspect of climate change decision-making is uncertainties in current understanding of the socioeconomic, climatic and biogeochemical processes involved. Decision-making processes are much better informed if these uncertainties are characterized and their implications understood. Quantitative analysis of these uncertainties serve to inform decision makers about the likely outcome of policy initiatives, and help set priorities for research so that outcome ambiguities faced by the decision-makers are reduced. A family of integrated assessment models of climate change have been developed at Carnegie Mellon. These models are distinguished from other integrated assessment efforts in that they were designed from the outset to characterize and propagate parameter, model, value, and decision-rule uncertainties. The most recent of these models is ICAM 2.1. This model includes representation of the processes of demographics, economic activity, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, climate and sea level change and impacts from these changes and policies for emissions mitigation, and adaptation to change. The model has over 800 objects of which about one half are used to represent uncertainty. In this paper we show, that when considering parameter uncertainties, the relative contribution of climatic uncertainties are most important, followed by uncertainties in damage calculations, economic uncertainties and direct aerosol forcing uncertainties. When considering model structure uncertainties we find that the choice of policy is often dominated by model structure choice, rather than parameter uncertainties.
On the effect of model parameters on forecast objects
Marzban, Caren; Jones, Corinne; Li, Ning; Sandgathe, Scott
2018-04-01
Many physics-based numerical models produce a gridded, spatial field of forecasts, e.g., a temperature map. The field for some quantities generally consists of spatially coherent and disconnected objects. Such objects arise in many problems, including precipitation forecasts in atmospheric models, eddy currents in ocean models, and models of forest fires. Certain features of these objects (e.g., location, size, intensity, and shape) are generally of interest. Here, a methodology is developed for assessing the impact of model parameters on the features of forecast objects. The main ingredients of the methodology include the use of (1) Latin hypercube sampling for varying the values of the model parameters, (2) statistical clustering algorithms for identifying objects, (3) multivariate multiple regression for assessing the impact of multiple model parameters on the distribution (across the forecast domain) of object features, and (4) methods for reducing the number of hypothesis tests and controlling the resulting errors. The final output of the methodology is a series of box plots and confidence intervals that visually display the sensitivities. The methodology is demonstrated on precipitation forecasts from a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Souza, V.L.B.; Figueiredo, M.D.C.; Cunha, M.S.
2008-01-01
Instrumental parameters need to be evaluated for obtaining acceptable analytical results for a specific instrument. The performance of the UV-VIS spectrophotometer can be verified for wavelengths and absorbances with appropriate materials (solutions of different concentrations of K 2 CrO 4 , for example). The aim of this work was to demonstrate the results of the procedures to control the quality of the measurements carried out in the laboratory in the last four years. The samples were analyzed in the spectrophotometer and control graphics were obtained for K 2 CrO 4 and Fe 3+ absorbance values. The variation in the results obtained for the stability of the spectrophotometer and for the control of its calibration did not exceed 2%. (author)
Prototype methodology for obtaining cloud seeding guidance from HRRR model data
Dawson, N.; Blestrud, D.; Kunkel, M. L.; Waller, B.; Ceratto, J.
2017-12-01
Weather model data, along with real time observations, are critical to determine whether atmospheric conditions are prime for super-cooled liquid water during cloud seeding operations. Cloud seeding groups can either use operational forecast models, or run their own model on a computer cluster. A custom weather model provides the most flexibility, but is also expensive. For programs with smaller budgets, openly-available operational forecasting models are the de facto method for obtaining forecast data. The new High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model (3 x 3 km grid size), developed by the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), provides hourly model runs with 18 forecast hours per run. While the model cannot be fine-tuned for a specific area or edited to provide cloud-seeding-specific output, model output is openly available on a near-real-time basis. This presentation focuses on a prototype methodology for using HRRR model data to create maps which aid in near-real-time cloud seeding decision making. The R programming language is utilized to run a script on a Windows® desktop/laptop computer either on a schedule (such as every half hour) or manually. The latest HRRR model run is downloaded from NOAA's Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS). A GRIB-filter service, provided by NOMADS, is used to obtain surface and mandatory pressure level data for a subset domain which greatly cuts down on the amount of data transfer. Then, a set of criteria, identified by the Idaho Power Atmospheric Science Group, is used to create guidance maps. These criteria include atmospheric stability (lapse rates), dew point depression, air temperature, and wet bulb temperature. The maps highlight potential areas where super-cooled liquid water may exist, reasons as to why cloud seeding should not be attempted, and wind speed at flight level.
Absorbing systematic effects to obtain a better background model in a search for new physics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Caron, S; Horner, S; Sundermann, J E; Cowan, G; Gross, E
2009-01-01
This paper presents a novel approach to estimate the Standard Model backgrounds based on modifying Monte Carlo predictions within their systematic uncertainties. The improved background model is obtained by altering the original predictions with successively more complex correction functions in signal-free control selections. Statistical tests indicate when sufficient compatibility with data is reached. In this way, systematic effects are absorbed into the new background model. The same correction is then applied on the Monte Carlo prediction in the signal region. Comparing this method to other background estimation techniques shows improvements with respect to statistical and systematic uncertainties. The proposed method can also be applied in other fields beyond high energy physics.
Parameter estimation in nonlinear models for pesticide degradation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Richter, O.; Pestemer, W.; Bunte, D.; Diekkrueger, B.
1991-01-01
A wide class of environmental transfer models is formulated as ordinary or partial differential equations. With the availability of fast computers, the numerical solution of large systems became feasible. The main difficulty in performing a realistic and convincing simulation of the fate of a substance in the biosphere is not the implementation of numerical techniques but rather the incomplete data basis for parameter estimation. Parameter estimation is a synonym for statistical and numerical procedures to derive reasonable numerical values for model parameters from data. The classical method is the familiar linear regression technique which dates back to the 18th century. Because it is easy to handle, linear regression has long been established as a convenient tool for analysing relationships. However, the wide use of linear regression has led to an overemphasis of linear relationships. In nature, most relationships are nonlinear and linearization often gives a poor approximation of reality. Furthermore, pure regression models are not capable to map the dynamics of a process. Therefore, realistic models involve the evolution in time (and space). This leads in a natural way to the formulation of differential equations. To establish the link between data and dynamical models, numerical advanced parameter identification methods have been developed in recent years. This paper demonstrates the application of these techniques to estimation problems in the field of pesticide dynamics. (7 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs.)
Global parameter estimation for thermodynamic models of transcriptional regulation.
Suleimenov, Yerzhan; Ay, Ahmet; Samee, Md Abul Hassan; Dresch, Jacqueline M; Sinha, Saurabh; Arnosti, David N
2013-07-15
Deciphering the mechanisms involved in gene regulation holds the key to understanding the control of central biological processes, including human disease, population variation, and the evolution of morphological innovations. New experimental techniques including whole genome sequencing and transcriptome analysis have enabled comprehensive modeling approaches to study gene regulation. In many cases, it is useful to be able to assign biological significance to the inferred model parameters, but such interpretation should take into account features that affect these parameters, including model construction and sensitivity, the type of fitness calculation, and the effectiveness of parameter estimation. This last point is often neglected, as estimation methods are often selected for historical reasons or for computational ease. Here, we compare the performance of two parameter estimation techniques broadly representative of local and global approaches, namely, a quasi-Newton/Nelder-Mead simplex (QN/NMS) method and a covariance matrix adaptation-evolutionary strategy (CMA-ES) method. The estimation methods were applied to a set of thermodynamic models of gene transcription applied to regulatory elements active in the Drosophila embryo. Measuring overall fit, the global CMA-ES method performed significantly better than the local QN/NMS method on high quality data sets, but this difference was negligible on lower quality data sets with increased noise or on data sets simplified by stringent thresholding. Our results suggest that the choice of parameter estimation technique for evaluation of gene expression models depends both on quality of data, the nature of the models [again, remains to be established] and the aims of the modeling effort. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Low-dimensional modeling of a driven cavity flow with two free parameters
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jørgensen, Bo Hoffmann; Sørensen, Jens Nørkær; Brøns, Morten
2003-01-01
. By carrying out such a procedure one obtains a low-dimensional model consisting of a reduced set of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) which models the original equations. A technique called Sequential Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (SPOD) is developed to perform decompositions suitable for low...... parameters to appear in the inhomogeneous boundary conditions without the addition of any constraints. This is necessary because both the driving lid and the rotating rod are controlled simultaneously. Apparently, the results reported for this model are the first to be obtained for a low-dimensional model...
Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
M. Wasiolek
2006-06-05
This analysis is one of the technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), referred to in this report as the biosphere model. ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'' is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the biosphere model is presented in Figure 1-1 (based on BSC 2006 [DIRS 176938]). This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This analysis report defines and justifies values of atmospheric mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of the biosphere model to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception. This
Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
M. Wasiolek
2006-01-01
This analysis is one of the technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), referred to in this report as the biosphere model. ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'' is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the biosphere model is presented in Figure 1-1 (based on BSC 2006 [DIRS 176938]). This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This analysis report defines and justifies values of atmospheric mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of the biosphere model to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception. This report is concerned primarily with the
The level density parameters for fermi gas model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zuang Youxiang; Wang Cuilan; Zhou Chunmei; Su Zongdi
1986-01-01
Nuclear level densities are crucial ingredient in the statistical models, for instance, in the calculations of the widths, cross sections, emitted particle spectra, etc. for various reaction channels. In this work 667 sets of more reliable and new experimental data are adopted, which include average level spacing D D , radiative capture width Γ γ 0 at neutron binding energy and cumulative level number N 0 at the low excitation energy. They are published during 1973 to 1983. Based on the parameters given by Gilbert-Cameon and Cook the physical quantities mentioned above are calculated. The calculated results have the deviation obviously from experimental values. In order to improve the fitting, the parameters in the G-C formula are adjusted and new set of level density parameters is obsained. The parameters is this work are more suitable to fit new measurements
Iterative integral parameter identification of a respiratory mechanics model.
Schranz, Christoph; Docherty, Paul D; Chiew, Yeong Shiong; Möller, Knut; Chase, J Geoffrey
2012-07-18
Patient-specific respiratory mechanics models can support the evaluation of optimal lung protective ventilator settings during ventilation therapy. Clinical application requires that the individual's model parameter values must be identified with information available at the bedside. Multiple linear regression or gradient-based parameter identification methods are highly sensitive to noise and initial parameter estimates. Thus, they are difficult to apply at the bedside to support therapeutic decisions. An iterative integral parameter identification method is applied to a second order respiratory mechanics model. The method is compared to the commonly used regression methods and error-mapping approaches using simulated and clinical data. The clinical potential of the method was evaluated on data from 13 Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) patients. The iterative integral method converged to error minima 350 times faster than the Simplex Search Method using simulation data sets and 50 times faster using clinical data sets. Established regression methods reported erroneous results due to sensitivity to noise. In contrast, the iterative integral method was effective independent of initial parameter estimations, and converged successfully in each case tested. These investigations reveal that the iterative integral method is beneficial with respect to computing time, operator independence and robustness, and thus applicable at the bedside for this clinical application.
Iterative integral parameter identification of a respiratory mechanics model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Schranz Christoph
2012-07-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Patient-specific respiratory mechanics models can support the evaluation of optimal lung protective ventilator settings during ventilation therapy. Clinical application requires that the individual’s model parameter values must be identified with information available at the bedside. Multiple linear regression or gradient-based parameter identification methods are highly sensitive to noise and initial parameter estimates. Thus, they are difficult to apply at the bedside to support therapeutic decisions. Methods An iterative integral parameter identification method is applied to a second order respiratory mechanics model. The method is compared to the commonly used regression methods and error-mapping approaches using simulated and clinical data. The clinical potential of the method was evaluated on data from 13 Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS patients. Results The iterative integral method converged to error minima 350 times faster than the Simplex Search Method using simulation data sets and 50 times faster using clinical data sets. Established regression methods reported erroneous results due to sensitivity to noise. In contrast, the iterative integral method was effective independent of initial parameter estimations, and converged successfully in each case tested. Conclusion These investigations reveal that the iterative integral method is beneficial with respect to computing time, operator independence and robustness, and thus applicable at the bedside for this clinical application.
Oyster Creek cycle 10 nodal model parameter optimization study using PSMS
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dougher, J.D.
1987-01-01
The power shape monitoring system (PSMS) is an on-line core monitoring system that uses a three-dimensional nodal code (NODE-B) to perform nodal power calculations and compute thermal margins. The PSMS contains a parameter optimization function that improves the ability of NODE-B to accurately monitor core power distributions. This functions iterates on the model normalization parameters (albedos and mixing factors) to obtain the best agreement between predicted and measured traversing in-core probe (TIP) reading on a statepoint-by-statepoint basis. Following several statepoint optimization runs, an average set of optimized normalization parameters can be determined and can be implemented into the current or subsequent cycle core model for on-line core monitoring. A statistical analysis of 19 high-power steady-state state-points throughout Oyster Creek cycle 10 operation has shown a consistently poor virgin model performance. The normalization parameters used in the cycle 10 NODE-B model were based on a cycle 8 study, which evaluated only Exxon fuel types. The introduction of General Electric (GE) fuel into cycle 10 (172 assemblies) was a significant fuel/core design change that could have altered the optimum set of normalization parameters. Based on the need to evaluate a potential change in the model normalization parameters for cycle 11 and in an attempt to account for the poor cycle 10 model performance, a parameter optimization study was performed
Derivation of potential model for LiAlO2 by simple and effective optimization of model parameters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tsuchihira, H.; Oda, T.; Tanaka, S.
2009-01-01
Interatomic potentials of LiAlO 2 were constructed by a simple and effective method. In this method, the model function consists of multiple inverse polynomial functions with an exponential truncation function, and parameters in the potential model can be optimized as a solution of simultaneous linear equations. Potential energies obtained by ab initio calculation are used as fitting targets for model parameter optimization. Lattice constants, elastic properties, defect-formation energy, thermal expansions and the melting point were calculated under the constructed potential models. The results showed good agreement with experimental values and ab initio calculation results, which underscores the validity of the presented method.
MODELLING BIOPHYSICAL PARAMETERS OF MAIZE USING LANDSAT 8 TIME SERIES
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
T. Dahms
2016-06-01
Full Text Available Open and free access to multi-frequent high-resolution data (e.g. Sentinel – 2 will fortify agricultural applications based on satellite data. The temporal and spatial resolution of these remote sensing datasets directly affects the applicability of remote sensing methods, for instance a robust retrieving of biophysical parameters over the entire growing season with very high geometric resolution. In this study we use machine learning methods to predict biophysical parameters, namely the fraction of absorbed photosynthetic radiation (FPAR, the leaf area index (LAI and the chlorophyll content, from high resolution remote sensing. 30 Landsat 8 OLI scenes were available in our study region in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Germany. In-situ data were weekly to bi-weekly collected on 18 maize plots throughout the summer season 2015. The study aims at an optimized prediction of biophysical parameters and the identification of the best explaining spectral bands and vegetation indices. For this purpose, we used the entire in-situ dataset from 24.03.2015 to 15.10.2015. Random forest and conditional inference forests were used because of their explicit strong exploratory and predictive character. Variable importance measures allowed for analysing the relation between the biophysical parameters with respect to the spectral response, and the performance of the two approaches over the plant stock evolvement. Classical random forest regression outreached the performance of conditional inference forests, in particular when modelling the biophysical parameters over the entire growing period. For example, modelling biophysical parameters of maize for the entire vegetation period using random forests yielded: FPAR: R² = 0.85; RMSE = 0.11; LAI: R² = 0.64; RMSE = 0.9 and chlorophyll content (SPAD: R² = 0.80; RMSE=4.9. Our results demonstrate the great potential in using machine-learning methods for the interpretation of long-term multi-frequent remote sensing
Modelling Biophysical Parameters of Maize Using Landsat 8 Time Series
Dahms, Thorsten; Seissiger, Sylvia; Conrad, Christopher; Borg, Erik
2016-06-01
Open and free access to multi-frequent high-resolution data (e.g. Sentinel - 2) will fortify agricultural applications based on satellite data. The temporal and spatial resolution of these remote sensing datasets directly affects the applicability of remote sensing methods, for instance a robust retrieving of biophysical parameters over the entire growing season with very high geometric resolution. In this study we use machine learning methods to predict biophysical parameters, namely the fraction of absorbed photosynthetic radiation (FPAR), the leaf area index (LAI) and the chlorophyll content, from high resolution remote sensing. 30 Landsat 8 OLI scenes were available in our study region in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Germany. In-situ data were weekly to bi-weekly collected on 18 maize plots throughout the summer season 2015. The study aims at an optimized prediction of biophysical parameters and the identification of the best explaining spectral bands and vegetation indices. For this purpose, we used the entire in-situ dataset from 24.03.2015 to 15.10.2015. Random forest and conditional inference forests were used because of their explicit strong exploratory and predictive character. Variable importance measures allowed for analysing the relation between the biophysical parameters with respect to the spectral response, and the performance of the two approaches over the plant stock evolvement. Classical random forest regression outreached the performance of conditional inference forests, in particular when modelling the biophysical parameters over the entire growing period. For example, modelling biophysical parameters of maize for the entire vegetation period using random forests yielded: FPAR: R² = 0.85; RMSE = 0.11; LAI: R² = 0.64; RMSE = 0.9 and chlorophyll content (SPAD): R² = 0.80; RMSE=4.9. Our results demonstrate the great potential in using machine-learning methods for the interpretation of long-term multi-frequent remote sensing datasets to model
Parameter sensitivity analysis of a lumped-parameter model of a chain of lymphangions in series.
Jamalian, Samira; Bertram, Christopher D; Richardson, William J; Moore, James E
2013-12-01
Any disruption of the lymphatic system due to trauma or injury can lead to edema. There is no effective cure for lymphedema, partly because predictive knowledge of lymphatic system reactions to interventions is lacking. A well-developed model of the system could greatly improve our understanding of its function. Lymphangions, defined as the vessel segment between two valves, are the individual pumping units. Based on our previous lumped-parameter model of a chain of lymphangions, this study aimed to identify the parameters that affect the system output the most using a sensitivity analysis. The system was highly sensitive to minimum valve resistance, such that variations in this parameter caused an order-of-magnitude change in time-average flow rate for certain values of imposed pressure difference. Average flow rate doubled when contraction frequency was increased within its physiological range. Optimum lymphangion length was found to be some 13-14.5 diameters. A peak of time-average flow rate occurred when transmural pressure was such that the pressure-diameter loop for active contractions was centered near maximum passive vessel compliance. Increasing the number of lymphangions in the chain improved the pumping in the presence of larger adverse pressure differences. For a given pressure difference, the optimal number of lymphangions increased with the total vessel length. These results indicate that further experiments to estimate valve resistance more accurately are necessary. The existence of an optimal value of transmural pressure may provide additional guidelines for increasing pumping in areas affected by edema.
X-Parameter Based Modelling of Polar Modulated Power Amplifiers
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Wang, Yelin; Nielsen, Troels Studsgaard; Sira, Daniel
2013-01-01
X-parameters are developed as an extension of S-parameters capable of modelling non-linear devices driven by large signals. They are suitable for devices having only radio frequency (RF) and DC ports. In a polar power amplifier (PA), phase and envelope of the input modulated signal are applied...... at separate ports and the envelope port is neither an RF nor a DC port. As a result, X-parameters may fail to characterise the effect of the envelope port excitation and consequently the polar PA. This study introduces a solution to the problem for a commercial polar PA. In this solution, the RF-phase path...... PA for simulations. The simulated error vector magnitude (EVM) and adjacent channel power ratio (ACPR) were compared with the measured data to validate the model. The maximum differences between the simulated and measured EVM and ACPR are less than 2% point and 3 dB, respectively....
Combustion Model and Control Parameter Optimization Methods for Single Cylinder Diesel Engine
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bambang Wahono
2014-01-01
Full Text Available This research presents a method to construct a combustion model and a method to optimize some control parameters of diesel engine in order to develop a model-based control system. The construction purpose of the model is to appropriately manage some control parameters to obtain the values of fuel consumption and emission as the engine output objectives. Stepwise method considering multicollinearity was applied to construct combustion model with the polynomial model. Using the experimental data of a single cylinder diesel engine, the model of power, BSFC, NOx, and soot on multiple injection diesel engines was built. The proposed method succesfully developed the model that describes control parameters in relation to the engine outputs. Although many control devices can be mounted to diesel engine, optimization technique is required to utilize this method in finding optimal engine operating conditions efficiently beside the existing development of individual emission control methods. Particle swarm optimization (PSO was used to calculate control parameters to optimize fuel consumption and emission based on the model. The proposed method is able to calculate control parameters efficiently to optimize evaluation item based on the model. Finally, the model which added PSO then was compiled in a microcontroller.
Prediction of interest rate using CKLS model with stochastic parameters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ying, Khor Chia; Hin, Pooi Ah
2014-01-01
The Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff and Sanders (CKLS) model is a popular one-factor model for describing the spot interest rates. In this paper, the four parameters in the CKLS model are regarded as stochastic. The parameter vector φ (j) of four parameters at the (J+n)-th time point is estimated by the j-th window which is defined as the set consisting of the observed interest rates at the j′-th time point where j≤j′≤j+n. To model the variation of φ (j) , we assume that φ (j) depends on φ (j−m) , φ (j−m+1) ,…, φ (j−1) and the interest rate r j+n at the (j+n)-th time point via a four-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a [4(m+1)+1]-dimensional power-normal distribution. Treating the (j+n)-th time point as the present time point, we find a prediction interval for the future value r j+n+1 of the interest rate at the next time point when the value r j+n of the interest rate is given. From the above four-dimensional conditional distribution, we also find a prediction interval for the future interest rate r j+n+d at the next d-th (d≥2) time point. The prediction intervals based on the CKLS model with stochastic parameters are found to have better ability of covering the observed future interest rates when compared with those based on the model with fixed parameters
Prediction of interest rate using CKLS model with stochastic parameters
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ying, Khor Chia [Faculty of Computing and Informatics, Multimedia University, Jalan Multimedia, 63100 Cyberjaya, Selangor (Malaysia); Hin, Pooi Ah [Sunway University Business School, No. 5, Jalan Universiti, Bandar Sunway, 47500 Subang Jaya, Selangor (Malaysia)
2014-06-19
The Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff and Sanders (CKLS) model is a popular one-factor model for describing the spot interest rates. In this paper, the four parameters in the CKLS model are regarded as stochastic. The parameter vector φ{sup (j)} of four parameters at the (J+n)-th time point is estimated by the j-th window which is defined as the set consisting of the observed interest rates at the j′-th time point where j≤j′≤j+n. To model the variation of φ{sup (j)}, we assume that φ{sup (j)} depends on φ{sup (j−m)}, φ{sup (j−m+1)},…, φ{sup (j−1)} and the interest rate r{sub j+n} at the (j+n)-th time point via a four-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a [4(m+1)+1]-dimensional power-normal distribution. Treating the (j+n)-th time point as the present time point, we find a prediction interval for the future value r{sub j+n+1} of the interest rate at the next time point when the value r{sub j+n} of the interest rate is given. From the above four-dimensional conditional distribution, we also find a prediction interval for the future interest rate r{sub j+n+d} at the next d-th (d≥2) time point. The prediction intervals based on the CKLS model with stochastic parameters are found to have better ability of covering the observed future interest rates when compared with those based on the model with fixed parameters.
Mathematical models to predict rheological parameters of lateritic hydromixtures
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gabriel Hernández-Ramírez
2017-10-01
Full Text Available The present work had as objective to establish mathematical models that allow the prognosis of the rheological parameters of the lateritic pulp at concentrations of solids from 35% to 48%, temperature of the preheated hydromixture superior to 82 ° C and number of mineral between 3 and 16. Four samples of lateritic pulp were used in the study at different process locations. The results allowed defining that the plastic properties of the lateritic pulp in the conditions of this study conform to the Herschel-Bulkley model for real plastics. In addition, they show that for current operating conditions, even for new situations, UPD mathematical models have a greater ability to predict rheological parameters than least squares mathematical models.
Averaging models: parameters estimation with the R-Average procedure
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S. Noventa
2010-01-01
Full Text Available The Functional Measurement approach, proposed within the theoretical framework of Information Integration Theory (Anderson, 1981, 1982, can be a useful multi-attribute analysis tool. Compared to the majority of statistical models, the averaging model can account for interaction effects without adding complexity. The R-Average method (Vidotto & Vicentini, 2007 can be used to estimate the parameters of these models. By the use of multiple information criteria in the model selection procedure, R-Average allows for the identification of the best subset of parameters that account for the data. After a review of the general method, we present an implementation of the procedure in the framework of R-project, followed by some experiments using a Monte Carlo method.
Comparisons of criteria in the assessment model parameter optimizations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Liu Xinhe; Zhang Yongxing
1993-01-01
Three criteria (chi square, relative chi square and correlation coefficient) used in model parameter optimization (MPO) process that aims at significant reduction of prediction uncertainties were discussed and compared to each other with the aid of a well-controlled tracer experiment
Revised models and genetic parameter estimates for production and ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Genetic parameters for production and reproduction traits in the Elsenburg Dormer sheep stud were estimated using records of 11743 lambs born between 1943 and 2002. An animal model with direct and maternal additive, maternal permanent and temporary environmental effects was fitted for traits considered traits of the ...
Determination of parameters in elasto-plastic models of aluminium.
Meuwissen, M.H.H.; Oomens, C.W.J.; Baaijens, F.P.T.; Petterson, R.; Janssen, J.D.; Sol, H.; Oomens, C.W.J.
1997-01-01
A mixed numerical-experimental method is used to determine parameters in elasto-plastic constitutive models. An aluminium plate of non-standard geometry is mounted in a uniaxial tensile testing machine at which some adjustments are made to carry out shear tests. The sample is loaded and the total
Parameter Estimation for a Computable General Equilibrium Model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Arndt, Channing; Robinson, Sherman; Tarp, Finn
2002-01-01
We introduce a maximum entropy approach to parameter estimation for computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The approach applies information theory to estimating a system of non-linear simultaneous equations. It has a number of advantages. First, it imposes all general equilibrium constraints...
Parameter Estimation for a Computable General Equilibrium Model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Arndt, Channing; Robinson, Sherman; Tarp, Finn
We introduce a maximum entropy approach to parameter estimation for computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The approach applies information theory to estimating a system of nonlinear simultaneous equations. It has a number of advantages. First, it imposes all general equilibrium constraints...
Do Lumped-Parameter Models Provide the Correct Geometrical Damping?
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Lars
response during excitation and the geometrical damping related to free vibrations of a hexagonal footing. The optimal order of a lumped-parameter model is determined for each degree of freedom, i.e. horizontal and vertical translation as well as torsion and rocking. In particular, the necessity of coupling...... between horizontal sliding and rocking is discussed....
Key processes and input parameters for environmental tritium models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bunnenberg, C.; Taschner, M.; Ogram, G.L.
1994-01-01
The primary objective of the work reported here is to define key processes and input parameters for mathematical models of environmental tritium behaviour adequate for use in safety analysis and licensing of fusion devices like NET and associated tritium handling facilities. (author). 45 refs., 3 figs
Key processes and input parameters for environmental tritium models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bunnenberg, C; Taschner, M [Niedersaechsisches Inst. fuer Radiooekologie, Hannover (Germany); Ogram, G L [Ontario Hydro, Toronto, ON (Canada)
1994-12-31
The primary objective of the work reported here is to define key processes and input parameters for mathematical models of environmental tritium behaviour adequate for use in safety analysis and licensing of fusion devices like NET and associated tritium handling facilities. (author). 45 refs., 3 figs.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ghostine, Bachir; Assi, Ayman [Institut de Biomecanique Humaine Georges Charpak, Arts et Metiers ParisTech, Paris (France); University of Saint-Joseph, Laboratory of Biomechanics and Medical Imaging, Faculty of Medicine, Beirut (Lebanon); Sauret, Christophe; Skalli, Wafa [Institut de Biomecanique Humaine Georges Charpak, Arts et Metiers ParisTech, Paris (France); Bakouny, Ziad; Khalil, Nour [University of Saint-Joseph, Laboratory of Biomechanics and Medical Imaging, Faculty of Medicine, Beirut (Lebanon); Ghanem, Ismat [University of Saint-Joseph, Laboratory of Biomechanics and Medical Imaging, Faculty of Medicine, Beirut (Lebanon); University of Saint-Joseph, Hotel-Dieu de France Hospital, Beirut (Lebanon)
2017-03-15
Radiographs are often performed to assess pelvic and hip parameters, but results depend upon correct pelvis positioning. Three-dimensional (3D) reconstruction from biplanar-radiographs should provide parameters that are less sensitive to pelvic orientation, but this remained to be evaluated. Computerized-tomographic scans of six patients were used both as a reference and for generating simulated frontal and lateral radiographs. These simulated radiographs were generated while introducing axial rotations of the pelvis ranging from 0 to 20 . Simulated biplanar-radiographs were utilized by four operators, three times each, to perform pelvic 3D-reconstructions. These reconstructions were used to assess the trueness, precision and global uncertainty of radiological pelvic and hip parameters for each position. In the neutral position, global uncertainty ranged between ± 2 for pelvic tilt and ± 9 for acetabular posterior sector angle and was mainly related to precision errors (ranging from 1.5 to 7 ). With increasing axial rotation, global uncertainty increased and ranged between ± 5 for pelvic tilt and ± 11 for pelvic incidence, sacral slope and acetabular anterior sector angle, mainly due to precision errors. Radiological parameters obtained from 3D-reconstructions, based on biplanar-radiographs, are less sensitive to axial rotation compared to plain radiographs. However, the axial rotation should nonetheless not exceed 10 . (orig.)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ghostine, Bachir; Assi, Ayman; Sauret, Christophe; Skalli, Wafa; Bakouny, Ziad; Khalil, Nour; Ghanem, Ismat
2017-01-01
Radiographs are often performed to assess pelvic and hip parameters, but results depend upon correct pelvis positioning. Three-dimensional (3D) reconstruction from biplanar-radiographs should provide parameters that are less sensitive to pelvic orientation, but this remained to be evaluated. Computerized-tomographic scans of six patients were used both as a reference and for generating simulated frontal and lateral radiographs. These simulated radiographs were generated while introducing axial rotations of the pelvis ranging from 0 to 20 . Simulated biplanar-radiographs were utilized by four operators, three times each, to perform pelvic 3D-reconstructions. These reconstructions were used to assess the trueness, precision and global uncertainty of radiological pelvic and hip parameters for each position. In the neutral position, global uncertainty ranged between ± 2 for pelvic tilt and ± 9 for acetabular posterior sector angle and was mainly related to precision errors (ranging from 1.5 to 7 ). With increasing axial rotation, global uncertainty increased and ranged between ± 5 for pelvic tilt and ± 11 for pelvic incidence, sacral slope and acetabular anterior sector angle, mainly due to precision errors. Radiological parameters obtained from 3D-reconstructions, based on biplanar-radiographs, are less sensitive to axial rotation compared to plain radiographs. However, the axial rotation should nonetheless not exceed 10 . (orig.)
Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
M. A. Wasiolek
2003-09-24
This analysis is one of the nine reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003a) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents a set of input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. This report, ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2003b). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development at the time this report is issued and therefore not available at that time. This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this analysis report. This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading, which is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Measurements of mass loading are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air surrounding crops and concentrations in air
Integrating microbial diversity in soil carbon dynamic models parameters
Louis, Benjamin; Menasseri-Aubry, Safya; Leterme, Philippe; Maron, Pierre-Alain; Viaud, Valérie
2015-04-01
Faced with the numerous concerns about soil carbon dynamic, a large quantity of carbon dynamic models has been developed during the last century. These models are mainly in the form of deterministic compartment models with carbon fluxes between compartments represented by ordinary differential equations. Nowadays, lots of them consider the microbial biomass as a compartment of the soil organic matter (carbon quantity). But the amount of microbial carbon is rarely used in the differential equations of the models as a limiting factor. Additionally, microbial diversity and community composition are mostly missing, although last advances in soil microbial analytical methods during the two past decades have shown that these characteristics play also a significant role in soil carbon dynamic. As soil microorganisms are essential drivers of soil carbon dynamic, the question about explicitly integrating their role have become a key issue in soil carbon dynamic models development. Some interesting attempts can be found and are dominated by the incorporation of several compartments of different groups of microbial biomass in terms of functional traits and/or biogeochemical compositions to integrate microbial diversity. However, these models are basically heuristic models in the sense that they are used to test hypotheses through simulations. They have rarely been confronted to real data and thus cannot be used to predict realistic situations. The objective of this work was to empirically integrate microbial diversity in a simple model of carbon dynamic through statistical modelling of the model parameters. This work is based on available experimental results coming from a French National Research Agency program called DIMIMOS. Briefly, 13C-labelled wheat residue has been incorporated into soils with different pedological characteristics and land use history. Then, the soils have been incubated during 104 days and labelled and non-labelled CO2 fluxes have been measured at ten
Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
M. A. Wasiolek
2003-01-01
This analysis is one of the nine reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003a) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents a set of input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. This report, ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2003b). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development at the time this report is issued and therefore not available at that time. This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this analysis report. This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading, which is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Measurements of mass loading are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air surrounding crops and concentrations in air inhaled by a receptor. Concentrations in air to which the
Application of Powell's optimization method to surge arrester circuit models' parameters
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Christodoulou, C.A.; Stathopulos, I.A. [National Technical University of Athens, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, 9 Iroon Politechniou St., Zografou Campus, 157 80 Athens (Greece); Vita, V.; Ekonomou, L.; Chatzarakis, G.E. [A.S.PE.T.E. - School of Pedagogical and Technological Education, Department of Electrical Engineering Educators, N. Heraklion, 141 21 Athens (Greece)
2010-08-15
Powell's optimization method has been used for the evaluation of the surge arrester models parameters. The proper modelling of metal-oxide surge arresters and the right selection of equivalent circuit parameters are very significant issues, since quality and reliability of lightning performance studies can be improved with the more efficient representation of the arresters' dynamic behavior. The proposed approach selects optimum arrester model equivalent circuit parameter values, minimizing the error between the simulated peak residual voltage value and this given by the manufacturer. Application of the method in performed on a 120 kV metal oxide arrester. The use of the obtained optimum parameter values reduces significantly the relative error between the simulated and manufacturer's peak residual voltage value, presenting the effectiveness of the method. (author)
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Iglesias, J. E.; Sabuncu, M. R.; Van Leemput, Koen
2012-01-01
Many successful segmentation algorithms are based on Bayesian models in which prior anatomical knowledge is combined with the available image information. However, these methods typically have many free parameters that are estimated to obtain point estimates only, whereas a faithful Bayesian anal...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shangli Zhang
2009-01-01
Full Text Available By using the methods of linear algebra and matrix inequality theory, we obtain the characterization of admissible estimators in the general multivariate linear model with respect to inequality restricted parameter set. In the classes of homogeneous and general linear estimators, the necessary and suffcient conditions that the estimators of regression coeffcient function are admissible are established.
Grain Size and Parameter Recovery with TIMSS and the General Diagnostic Model
Skaggs, Gary; Wilkins, Jesse L. M.; Hein, Serge F.
2016-01-01
The purpose of this study was to explore the degree of grain size of the attributes and the sample sizes that can support accurate parameter recovery with the General Diagnostic Model (GDM) for a large-scale international assessment. In this resampling study, bootstrap samples were obtained from the 2003 Grade 8 TIMSS in Mathematics at varying…
Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
K. Rasmuson; K. Rautenstrauch
2004-09-14
This analysis is one of 10 technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) (i.e., the biosphere model). It documents development of agricultural and environmental input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters.
Evaluation of some infiltration models and hydraulic parameters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Haghighi, F.; Gorji, M.; Shorafa, M.; Sarmadian, F.; Mohammadi, M. H.
2010-01-01
The evaluation of infiltration characteristics and some parameters of infiltration models such as sorptivity and final steady infiltration rate in soils are important in agriculture. The aim of this study was to evaluate some of the most common models used to estimate final soil infiltration rate. The equality of final infiltration rate with saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) was also tested. Moreover, values of the estimated sorptivity from the Philips model were compared to estimates by selected pedotransfer functions (PTFs). The infiltration experiments used the doublering method on soils with two different land uses in the Taleghan watershed of Tehran province, Iran, from September to October, 2007. The infiltration models of Kostiakov-Lewis, Philip two-term and Horton were fitted to observed infiltration data. Some parameters of the models and the coefficient of determination goodness of fit were estimated using MATLAB software. The results showed that, based on comparing measured and model-estimated infiltration rate using root mean squared error (RMSE), Hortons model gave the best prediction of final infiltration rate in the experimental area. Laboratory measured Ks values gave significant differences and higher values than estimated final infiltration rates from the selected models. The estimated final infiltration rate was not equal to laboratory measured Ks values in the study area. Moreover, the estimated sorptivity factor by Philips model was significantly different to those estimated by selected PTFs. It is suggested that the applicability of PTFs is limited to specific, similar conditions. (Author) 37 refs.
Schiavazzi, Daniele E.; Baretta, Alessia; Pennati, Giancarlo; Hsia, Tain-Yen; Marsden, Alison L.
2017-01-01
Summary Computational models of cardiovascular physiology can inform clinical decision-making, providing a physically consistent framework to assess vascular pressures and flow distributions, and aiding in treatment planning. In particular, lumped parameter network (LPN) models that make an analogy to electrical circuits offer a fast and surprisingly realistic method to reproduce the circulatory physiology. The complexity of LPN models can vary significantly to account, for example, for cardiac and valve function, respiration, autoregulation, and time-dependent hemodynamics. More complex models provide insight into detailed physiological mechanisms, but their utility is maximized if one can quickly identify patient specific parameters. The clinical utility of LPN models with many parameters will be greatly enhanced by automated parameter identification, particularly if parameter tuning can match non-invasively obtained clinical data. We present a framework for automated tuning of 0D lumped model parameters to match clinical data. We demonstrate the utility of this framework through application to single ventricle pediatric patients with Norwood physiology. Through a combination of local identifiability, Bayesian estimation and maximum a posteriori simplex optimization, we show the ability to automatically determine physiologically consistent point estimates of the parameters and to quantify uncertainty induced by errors and assumptions in the collected clinical data. We show that multi-level estimation, that is, updating the parameter prior information through sub-model analysis, can lead to a significant reduction in the parameter marginal posterior variance. We first consider virtual patient conditions, with clinical targets generated through model solutions, and second application to a cohort of four single-ventricle patients with Norwood physiology. PMID:27155892
Parameter identification of ZnO surge arrester models based on genetic algorithms
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bayadi, Abdelhafid [Laboratoire d' Automatique de Setif, Departement d' Electrotechnique, Faculte des Sciences de l' Ingenieur, Universite Ferhat ABBAS de Setif, Route de Bejaia Setif 19000 (Algeria)
2008-07-15
The correct and adequate modelling of ZnO surge arresters characteristics is very important for insulation coordination studies and systems reliability. In this context many researchers addressed considerable efforts to the development of surge arresters models to reproduce the dynamic characteristics observed in their behaviour when subjected to fast front impulse currents. The difficulties with these models reside essentially in the calculation and the adjustment of their parameters. This paper proposes a new technique based on genetic algorithm to obtain the best possible series of parameter values of ZnO surge arresters models. The validity of the predicted parameters is then checked by comparing the predicted results with the experimental results available in the literature. Using the ATP-EMTP package, an application of the arrester model on network system studies is presented and discussed. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chen, B.C.J.; Hull, J.R.; Seitz, M.G.; Sha, W.T.; Shah, V.L.; Soo, S.L.
1984-07-01
Computer model simulation is required to evaluate the performance of proposed or future high-level radioactive waste geological repositories. However, the accuracy of a model in predicting the real situation depends on how well the values of the transport properties are prescribed as input parameters. Knowledge of transport parameters is therefore essential. We have modeled ANL's Experiment Analog Program which was designed to simulate long-term radwaste migration process by groundwater flowing through a high-level radioactive waste repository. Using this model and experimental measurements, we have evaluated neptunium (actinide) deposition velocity and analyzed the complex phenomena of simultaneous deposition, erosion, and reentrainment of bentonite when groundwater is flowing through a narrow crack in a basalt rock. The present modeling demonstrates that we can obtain the values of transport parameters, as added information without any additional cost, from the available measurements of laboratory analog experiments. 8 figures, 3 tables
Estimating model parameters in nonautonomous chaotic systems using synchronization
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yang, Xiaoli; Xu, Wei; Sun, Zhongkui
2007-01-01
In this Letter, a technique is addressed for estimating unknown model parameters of multivariate, in particular, nonautonomous chaotic systems from time series of state variables. This technique uses an adaptive strategy for tracking unknown parameters in addition to a linear feedback coupling for synchronizing systems, and then some general conditions, by means of the periodic version of the LaSalle invariance principle for differential equations, are analytically derived to ensure precise evaluation of unknown parameters and identical synchronization between the concerned experimental system and its corresponding receiver one. Exemplifies are presented by employing a parametrically excited 4D new oscillator and an additionally excited Ueda oscillator. The results of computer simulations reveal that the technique not only can quickly track the desired parameter values but also can rapidly respond to changes in operating parameters. In addition, the technique can be favorably robust against the effect of noise when the experimental system is corrupted by bounded disturbance and the normalized absolute error of parameter estimation grows almost linearly with the cutoff value of noise strength in simulation
Luo, Rutao; Piovoso, Michael J.; Martinez-Picado, Javier; Zurakowski, Ryan
2012-01-01
Mathematical models based on ordinary differential equations (ODE) have had significant impact on understanding HIV disease dynamics and optimizing patient treatment. A model that characterizes the essential disease dynamics can be used for prediction only if the model parameters are identifiable from clinical data. Most previous parameter identification studies for HIV have used sparsely sampled data from the decay phase following the introduction of therapy. In this paper, model parameters are identified from frequently sampled viral-load data taken from ten patients enrolled in the previously published AutoVac HAART interruption study, providing between 69 and 114 viral load measurements from 3–5 phases of viral decay and rebound for each patient. This dataset is considerably larger than those used in previously published parameter estimation studies. Furthermore, the measurements come from two separate experimental conditions, which allows for the direct estimation of drug efficacy and reservoir contribution rates, two parameters that cannot be identified from decay-phase data alone. A Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo method is used to estimate the model parameter values, with initial estimates obtained using nonlinear least-squares methods. The posterior distributions of the parameter estimates are reported and compared for all patients. PMID:22815727
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Chon, K H; Hoyer, D; Armoundas, A A
1999-01-01
In this study, we introduce a new approach for estimating linear and nonlinear stochastic autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model parameters, given a corrupt signal, using artificial recurrent neural networks. This new approach is a two-step approach in which the parameters of the deterministic...... part of the stochastic ARMA model are first estimated via a three-layer artificial neural network (deterministic estimation step) and then reestimated using the prediction error as one of the inputs to the artificial neural networks in an iterative algorithm (stochastic estimation step). The prediction...... error is obtained by subtracting the corrupt signal of the estimated ARMA model obtained via the deterministic estimation step from the system output response. We present computer simulation examples to show the efficacy of the proposed stochastic recurrent neural network approach in obtaining accurate...
Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Smith, A. J.
2004-01-01
This report presents one of the analyses that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the details of the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and the required input parameters. The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the postclosure Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. A schematic representation of the documentation flow for the Biosphere input to TSPA is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the evolutionary relationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this report. This report, ''Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five analysis reports that develop input parameters for use in the ERMYN model. This report is the source documentation for the six biosphere parameters identified in Table 1-1. The purpose of this analysis was to develop the biosphere model parameters associated with the accumulation and depletion of radionuclides in the soil. These parameters support the calculation of radionuclide concentrations in soil from on-going irrigation or ash deposition and, as a direct consequence, radionuclide concentration in other environmental media that are affected by radionuclide concentrations in soil. The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) where the governing procedure was defined as AP-SIII.9Q, ''Scientific Analyses''. This
Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
A. J. Smith
2004-09-09
This report presents one of the analyses that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the details of the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and the required input parameters. The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the postclosure Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. A schematic representation of the documentation flow for the Biosphere input to TSPA is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the evolutionary relationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this report. This report, ''Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five analysis reports that develop input parameters for use in the ERMYN model. This report is the source documentation for the six biosphere parameters identified in Table 1-1. The purpose of this analysis was to develop the biosphere model parameters associated with the accumulation and depletion of radionuclides in the soil. These parameters support the calculation of radionuclide concentrations in soil from on-going irrigation or ash deposition and, as a direct consequence, radionuclide concentration in other environmental media that are affected by radionuclide concentrations in soil. The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) where the governing procedure
Improving fault image by determination of optimum seismic survey parameters using ray-based modeling
Saffarzadeh, Sadegh; Javaherian, Abdolrahim; Hasani, Hossein; Talebi, Mohammad Ali
2018-06-01
In complex structures such as faults, salt domes and reefs, specifying the survey parameters is more challenging and critical owing to the complicated wave field behavior involved in such structures. In the petroleum industry, detecting faults has become crucial for reservoir potential where faults can act as traps for hydrocarbon. In this regard, seismic survey modeling is employed to construct a model close to the real structure, and obtain very realistic synthetic seismic data. Seismic modeling software, the velocity model and parameters pre-determined by conventional methods enable a seismic survey designer to run a shot-by-shot virtual survey operation. A reliable velocity model of structures can be constructed by integrating the 2D seismic data, geological reports and the well information. The effects of various survey designs can be investigated by the analysis of illumination maps and flower plots. Also, seismic processing of the synthetic data output can describe the target image using different survey parameters. Therefore, seismic modeling is one of the most economical ways to establish and test the optimum acquisition parameters to obtain the best image when dealing with complex geological structures. The primary objective of this study is to design a proper 3D seismic survey orientation to achieve fault zone structures through ray-tracing seismic modeling. The results prove that a seismic survey designer can enhance the image of fault planes in a seismic section by utilizing the proposed modeling and processing approach.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rudiati Evi Masithoh
2013-03-01
Full Text Available Artificial neural networks (ANN was used to predict the quality parameters of tomato, i.e. Brix, citric acid, total carotene, and vitamin C. ANN was developed from Red Green Blue (RGB image data of tomatoes measured using a developed computer vision system (CVS. Qualitative analysis of tomato compositions were obtained from laboratory experiments. ANN model was based on a feedforward backpropagation network with different training functions, namely gradient descent (traingd, gradient descent with the resilient backpropagation (trainrp, Broyden, Fletcher, Goldfrab and Shanno (BFGS quasi-Newton (trainbfg, as well as Levenberg Marquardt (trainlm. The network structure using logsig and linear (purelin activation function at the hidden and output layer, respectively, and using the trainlm as a training function resulted in the best performance. Correlation coefficient (r of training and validation process were 0.97 - 0.99 and 0.92 - 0.99, whereas the MAE values ranged from 0.01 to 0.23 and 0.03 to 0.59, respectively. Keywords: Artificial neural network, trainlm, tomato, RGB Jaringan syaraf tiruan (JST digunakan untuk memprediksi parameter kualitas tomat, yaitu Brix, asam sitrat, karoten total, dan vitamin C. JST dikembangkan dari data Red Green Blue (RGB citra tomat yang diukur menggunakan computer vision system. Data kualitas tomat diperoleh dari analisis di laboratorium. Struktur model JST didasarkan pada jaringan feedforward backpropagation dengan berbagai fungsi pelatihan, yaitu gradient descent (traingd, gradient descent dengan resilient backpropagation (trainrp, Broyden, Fletcher, Goldfrab dan Shanno (BFGS quasi-Newton (trainbfg, serta Levenberg Marquardt (trainlm. Fungsi pelatihan yang terbaik adalah menggunakan trainlm, serta pada struktur jaringan digunakan fungsi aktivasi logsig pada lapisan tersembunyi dan linier (purelin pada lapisan keluaran. dengan 1000 epoch. Nilai koefisien korelasi (r pada tahap pelatihan dan validasi
Issues to be considered on obtaining plant models for formal verification purposes
Pacheco, R.; Gonzalez, L.; Intriago, M.; Machado, J.; Prisacaru, G.; Olaru, D.
2016-08-01
The development of dependable software for mechatronic systems can be a very complex and hard task. For facilitating the obtaining of dependable software for industrial controllers, some powerful software tools and analysis techniques can be used. Mainly, when using simulation and formal verification analysis techniques, it is necessary to develop plant models, in order to describe the plant behavior of those systems. However, developing a plant model implies that designer takes his (or her) decisions concerning granularity and level of abstraction of models; approach to consider for modeling (global or modular); and definition of strategies for simulation and formal verification tasks. This paper intends to highlight some aspects that can be considered for taking into account those decisions. For this purpose, it is presented a case study and there are illustrated and discussed very important aspects concerning above exposed issues.
Positioning performance of the NTCM model driven by GPS Klobuchar model parameters
Hoque, Mohammed Mainul; Jakowski, Norbert; Berdermann, Jens
2018-03-01
Users of the Global Positioning System (GPS) utilize the Ionospheric Correction Algorithm (ICA) also known as Klobuchar model for correcting ionospheric signal delay or range error. Recently, we developed an ionosphere correction algorithm called NTCM-Klobpar model for single frequency GNSS applications. The model is driven by a parameter computed from GPS Klobuchar model and consecutively can be used instead of the GPS Klobuchar model for ionospheric corrections. In the presented work we compare the positioning solutions obtained using NTCM-Klobpar with those using the Klobuchar model. Our investigation using worldwide ground GPS data from a quiet and a perturbed ionospheric and geomagnetic activity period of 17 days each shows that the 24-hour prediction performance of the NTCM-Klobpar is better than the GPS Klobuchar model in global average. The root mean squared deviation of the 3D position errors are found to be about 0.24 and 0.45 m less for the NTCM-Klobpar compared to the GPS Klobuchar model during quiet and perturbed condition, respectively. The presented algorithm has the potential to continuously improve the accuracy of GPS single frequency mass market devices with only little software modification.
Effect of calibration data series length on performance and optimal parameters of hydrological model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chuan-zhe Li
2010-12-01
Full Text Available In order to assess the effects of calibration data series length on the performance and optimal parameter values of a hydrological model in ungauged or data-limited catchments (data are non-continuous and fragmental in some catchments, we used non-continuous calibration periods for more independent streamflow data for SIMHYD (simple hydrology model calibration. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and percentage water balance error were used as performance measures. The particle swarm optimization (PSO method was used to calibrate the rainfall-runoff models. Different lengths of data series ranging from one year to ten years, randomly sampled, were used to study the impact of calibration data series length. Fifty-five relatively unimpaired catchments located all over Australia with daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and streamflow data were tested to obtain more general conclusions. The results show that longer calibration data series do not necessarily result in better model performance. In general, eight years of data are sufficient to obtain steady estimates of model performance and parameters for the SIMHYD model. It is also shown that most humid catchments require fewer calibration data to obtain a good performance and stable parameter values. The model performs better in humid and semi-humid catchments than in arid catchments. Our results may have useful and interesting implications for the efficiency of using limited observation data for hydrological model calibration in different climates.
A model to obtain an optimum erbium desity for gain increasing in EDFA
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
E. Arzi
2003-12-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we suggest a novel model, based on input pump power and wave guidestructure, to calculate the Er-density profile in Erbium doped fiber amplifiers. This optimization is carried out for both SMF and DSF fibers. These optimized profiles have a Gaussian-like shape. Using the SMF optimized Er-density profile, high gain enhancement is obtained in a relatively short length of fibers. On the other hand, the DSF optimized profile shows small changes in the gain, which agrees with the previously report on other method of gain enhancement. This model is applicable to all active waveguides and any other dopant as well .
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
G. Heuvelmans
2004-01-01
Full Text Available Operational applications of a hydrological model often require the prediction of stream flow in (future time periods without stream flow observations or in ungauged catchments. Data for a case-specific optimisation of model parameters are not available for such applications, so parameters have to be derived from other catchments or time periods. It has been demonstrated that for applications of the SWAT in Northern Belgium, temporal transfers of the parameters have less influence than spatial transfers on the performance of the model. This study examines the spatial variation in parameter optima in more detail. The aim was to delineate zones wherein model parameters can be transferred without a significant loss of model performance. SWAT was calibrated for 25 catchments that are part of eight larger sub-basins of the Scheldt river basin. Two approaches are discussed for grouping these units in zones with a uniform set of parameters: a single parameter approach considering each parameter separately and a parameter set approach evaluating the parameterisation as a whole. For every catchment, the SWAT model was run with the local parameter optima, with the average parameter values for the entire study region (Flanders, with the zones delineated with the single parameter approach and with the zones obtained by the parameter set approach. Comparison of the model performances of these four parameterisation strategies indicates that both the single parameter and the parameter set zones lead to stream flow predictions that are more accurate than if the entire study region were treated as one single zone. On the other hand, the use of zonal average parameter values results in a considerably worse model fit compared to local parameter optima. Clustering of parameter sets gives a more accurate result than the single parameter approach and is, therefore, the preferred technique for use in the parameterisation of ungauged sub-catchments as part of the
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sales-Cruz, Mauricio; Heitzig, Martina; Cameron, Ian
2011-01-01
of optimisation techniques coupled with dynamic solution of the underlying model. Linear and nonlinear approaches to parameter estimation are investigated. There is also the application of maximum likelihood principles in the estimation of parameters, as well as the use of orthogonal collocation to generate a set......In this chapter the importance of parameter estimation in model development is illustrated through various applications related to reaction systems. In particular, rate constants in a reaction system are obtained through parameter estimation methods. These approaches often require the application...... of algebraic equations as the basis for parameter estimation.These approaches are illustrated using estimations of kinetic constants from reaction system models....
Mass balance model parameter transferability on a tropical glacier
Gurgiser, Wolfgang; Mölg, Thomas; Nicholson, Lindsey; Kaser, Georg
2013-04-01
The mass balance and melt water production of glaciers is of particular interest in the Peruvian Andes where glacier melt water has markedly increased water supply during the pronounced dry seasons in recent decades. However, the melt water contribution from glaciers is projected to decrease with appreciable negative impacts on the local society within the coming decades. Understanding mass balance processes on tropical glaciers is a prerequisite for modeling present and future glacier runoff. As a first step towards this aim we applied a process-based surface mass balance model in order to calculate observed ablation at two stakes in the ablation zone of Shallap Glacier (4800 m a.s.l., 9°S) in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Under the tropical climate, the snow line migrates very frequently across most of the ablation zone all year round causing large temporal and spatial variations of glacier surface conditions and related ablation. Consequently, pronounced differences between the two chosen stakes and the two years were observed. Hourly records of temperature, humidity, wind speed, short wave incoming radiation, and precipitation are available from an automatic weather station (AWS) on the moraine near the glacier for the hydrological years 2006/07 and 2007/08 while stake readings are available at intervals of between 14 to 64 days. To optimize model parameters, we used 1000 model simulations in which the most sensitive model parameters were varied randomly within their physically meaningful ranges. The modeled surface height change was evaluated against the two stake locations in the lower ablation zone (SH11, 4760m) and in the upper ablation zone (SH22, 4816m), respectively. The optimal parameter set for each point achieved good model skill but if we transfer the best parameter combination from one stake site to the other stake site model errors increases significantly. The same happens if we optimize the model parameters for each year individually and transfer
Parameter estimation for LLDPE gas-phase reactor models
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G. A. Neumann
2007-06-01
Full Text Available Product development and advanced control applications require models with good predictive capability. However, in some cases it is not possible to obtain good quality phenomenological models due to the lack of data or the presence of important unmeasured effects. The use of empirical models requires less investment in modeling, but implies the need for larger amounts of experimental data to generate models with good predictive capability. In this work, nonlinear phenomenological and empirical models were compared with respect to their capability to predict the melt index and polymer yield of a low-density polyethylene production process consisting of two fluidized bed reactors connected in series. To adjust the phenomenological model, the optimization algorithms based on the flexible polyhedron method of Nelder and Mead showed the best efficiency. To adjust the empirical model, the PLS model was more appropriate for polymer yield, and the melt index needed more nonlinearity like the QPLS models. In the comparison between these two types of models better results were obtained for the empirical models.
Using a scalar parameter to trace dislocation evolution in atomistic modeling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Yang, Jinbo [ORNL; Zhang, Z F [Shenyang National Laboratory for Materials Science; Osetskiy, Yury N [ORNL; Stoller, Roger E [ORNL
2015-01-01
A scalar gamma-parameter is proposed from the Nye tensor. Its maximum value occurs along a dislocation line, either straight or curved, when the coordinate system is purposely chosen. This parameter can be easily obtained from the Nye tensor calculated at each atom in atomistic modeling. Using the gamma-parameter, a fully automated approach is developed to determine core atoms and the Burgers vectors of dislocations simultaneously. The approach is validated by revealing the smallest dislocation loop and by tracing the whole formation process of complicated dislocation networks on the fly.
Zayane, Chadia
2014-06-01
In this paper, we address a special case of state and parameter estimation, where the system can be put on a cascade form allowing to estimate the state components and the set of unknown parameters separately. Inspired by the nonlinear Balloon hemodynamic model for functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging problem, we propose a hierarchical approach. The system is divided into two subsystems in cascade. The state and input are first estimated from a noisy measured signal using an adaptive observer. The obtained input is then used to estimate the parameters of a linear system using the modulating functions method. Some numerical results are presented to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed method.
Constraining statistical-model parameters using fusion and spallation reactions
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Charity Robert J.
2011-10-01
Full Text Available The de-excitation of compound nuclei has been successfully described for several decades by means of statistical models. However, such models involve a large number of free parameters and ingredients that are often underconstrained by experimental data. We show how the degeneracy of the model ingredients can be partially lifted by studying different entrance channels for de-excitation, which populate different regions of the parameter space of the compound nucleus. Fusion reactions, in particular, play an important role in this strategy because they ﬁx three out of four of the compound-nucleus parameters (mass, charge and total excitation energy. The present work focuses on ﬁssion and intermediate-mass-fragment emission cross sections. We prove how equivalent parameter sets for fusion-ﬁssion reactions can be resolved using another entrance channel, namely spallation reactions. Intermediate-mass-fragment emission can be constrained in a similar way. An interpretation of the best-ﬁt IMF barriers in terms of the Wigner energies of the nascent fragments is discussed.
Investigation of RADTRAN Stop Model input parameters for truck stops
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Griego, N.R.; Smith, J.D.; Neuhauser, K.S.
1996-01-01
RADTRAN is a computer code for estimating the risks and consequences as transport of radioactive materials (RAM). RADTRAN was developed and is maintained by Sandia National Laboratories for the US Department of Energy (DOE). For incident-free transportation, the dose to persons exposed while the shipment is stopped is frequently a major percentage of the overall dose. This dose is referred to as Stop Dose and is calculated by the Stop Model. Because stop dose is a significant portion of the overall dose associated with RAM transport, the values used as input for the Stop Model are important. Therefore, an investigation of typical values for RADTRAN Stop Parameters for truck stops was performed. The resulting data from these investigations were analyzed to provide mean values, standard deviations, and histograms. Hence, the mean values can be used when an analyst does not have a basis for selecting other input values for the Stop Model. In addition, the histograms and their characteristics can be used to guide statistical sampling techniques to measure sensitivity of the RADTRAN calculated Stop Dose to the uncertainties in the stop model input parameters. This paper discusses the details and presents the results of the investigation of stop model input parameters at truck stops
Influential input parameters for reflood model of MARS code
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Oh, Deog Yeon; Bang, Young Seok [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2012-10-15
Best Estimate (BE) calculation has been more broadly used in nuclear industries and regulations to reduce the significant conservatism for evaluating Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA). Reflood model has been identified as one of the problems in BE calculation. The objective of the Post BEMUSE Reflood Model Input Uncertainty Methods (PREMIUM) program of OECD/NEA is to make progress the issue of the quantification of the uncertainty of the physical models in system thermal hydraulic codes, by considering an experimental result especially for reflood. It is important to establish a methodology to identify and select the parameters influential to the response of reflood phenomena following Large Break LOCA. For this aspect, a reference calculation and sensitivity analysis to select the dominant influential parameters for FEBA experiment are performed.
Can lagrangian models reproduce the migration time of European eel obtained from otolith analysis?
Rodríguez-Díaz, L.; Gómez-Gesteira, M.
2017-12-01
European eel can be found at the Bay of Biscay after a long migration across the Atlantic. The duration of migration, which takes place at larval stage, is of primary importance to understand eel ecology and, hence, its survival. This duration is still a controversial matter since it can range from 7 months to > 4 years depending on the method to estimate duration. The minimum migration duration estimated from our lagrangian model is similar to the duration obtained from the microstructure of eel otoliths, which is typically on the order of 7-9 months. The lagrangian model showed to be sensitive to different conditions like spatial and time resolution, release depth, release area and initial distribution. In general, migration showed to be faster when decreasing the depth and increasing the resolution of the model. In average, the fastest migration was obtained when only advective horizontal movement was considered. However, faster migration was even obtained in some cases when locally oriented random migration was taken into account.
A termination criterion for parameter estimation in stochastic models in systems biology.
Zimmer, Christoph; Sahle, Sven
2015-11-01
Parameter estimation procedures are a central aspect of modeling approaches in systems biology. They are often computationally expensive, especially when the models take stochasticity into account. Typically parameter estimation involves the iterative optimization of an objective function that describes how well the model fits some measured data with a certain set of parameter values. In order to limit the computational expenses it is therefore important to apply an adequate stopping criterion for the optimization process, so that the optimization continues at least until a reasonable fit is obtained, but not much longer. In the case of stochastic modeling, at least some parameter estimation schemes involve an objective function that is itself a random variable. This means that plain convergence tests are not a priori suitable as stopping criteria. This article suggests a termination criterion suited to optimization problems in parameter estimation arising from stochastic models in systems biology. The termination criterion is developed for optimization algorithms that involve populations of parameter sets, such as particle swarm or evolutionary algorithms. It is based on comparing the variance of the objective function over the whole population of parameter sets with the variance of repeated evaluations of the objective function at the best parameter set. The performance is demonstrated for several different algorithms. To test the termination criterion we choose polynomial test functions as well as systems biology models such as an Immigration-Death model and a bistable genetic toggle switch. The genetic toggle switch is an especially challenging test case as it shows a stochastic switching between two steady states which is qualitatively different from the model behavior in a deterministic model. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.
Impact of the calibration period on the conceptual rainfall-runoff model parameter estimates
Todorovic, Andrijana; Plavsic, Jasna
2015-04-01
. Correlation coefficients among optimised model parameters and total precipitation P, mean temperature T and mean flow Q are calculated to give an insight into parameter dependence on the hydrometeorological drivers. The results reveal high sensitivity of almost all model parameters towards calibration period. The highest variability is displayed by the refreezing coefficient, water holding capacity, and temperature gradient. The only statistically significant (decreasing) trend is detected in the evapotranspiration reduction threshold. Statistically significant correlation is detected between the precipitation gradient and precipitation depth, and between the time-area histogram base and flows. All other correlations are not statistically significant, implying that changes in optimised parameters cannot generally be linked to the changes in P, T or Q. As for the model performance, the model reproduces the observed runoff satisfactorily, though the runoff is slightly overestimated in wet periods. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) ranges from 0.44 to 0.79. Higher NSE values are obtained over wetter periods, what is supported by statistically significant correlation between NSE and flows. Overall, no systematic variations in parameters or in model performance are detected. Parameter variability may therefore rather be attributed to errors in data or inadequacies in the model structure. Further research is required to examine the impact of the calibration strategy or model structure on the variability in optimised parameters in time.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Petras Rupšys
2015-01-01
Full Text Available A stochastic modeling approach based on the Bertalanffy law gained interest due to its ability to produce more accurate results than the deterministic approaches. We examine tree crown width dynamic with the Bertalanffy type stochastic differential equation (SDE and mixed-effects parameters. In this study, we demonstrate how this simple model can be used to calculate predictions of crown width. We propose a parameter estimation method and computational guidelines. The primary goal of the study was to estimate the parameters by considering discrete sampling of the diameter at breast height and crown width and by using maximum likelihood procedure. Performance statistics for the crown width equation include statistical indexes and analysis of residuals. We use data provided by the Lithuanian National Forest Inventory from Scots pine trees to illustrate issues of our modeling technique. Comparison of the predicted crown width values of mixed-effects parameters model with those obtained using fixed-effects parameters model demonstrates the predictive power of the stochastic differential equations model with mixed-effects parameters. All results were implemented in a symbolic algebra system MAPLE.
Set-base dynamical parameter estimation and model invalidation for biochemical reaction networks.
Rumschinski, Philipp; Borchers, Steffen; Bosio, Sandro; Weismantel, Robert; Findeisen, Rolf
2010-05-25
Mathematical modeling and analysis have become, for the study of biological and cellular processes, an important complement to experimental research. However, the structural and quantitative knowledge available for such processes is frequently limited, and measurements are often subject to inherent and possibly large uncertainties. This results in competing model hypotheses, whose kinetic parameters may not be experimentally determinable. Discriminating among these alternatives and estimating their kinetic parameters is crucial to improve the understanding of the considered process, and to benefit from the analytical tools at hand. In this work we present a set-based framework that allows to discriminate between competing model hypotheses and to provide guaranteed outer estimates on the model parameters that are consistent with the (possibly sparse and uncertain) experimental measurements. This is obtained by means of exact proofs of model invalidity that exploit the polynomial/rational structure of biochemical reaction networks, and by making use of an efficient strategy to balance solution accuracy and computational effort. The practicability of our approach is illustrated with two case studies. The first study shows that our approach allows to conclusively rule out wrong model hypotheses. The second study focuses on parameter estimation, and shows that the proposed method allows to evaluate the global influence of measurement sparsity, uncertainty, and prior knowledge on the parameter estimates. This can help in designing further experiments leading to improved parameter estimates.
A practical method to assess model sensitivity and parameter uncertainty in C cycle models
Delahaies, Sylvain; Roulstone, Ian; Nichols, Nancy
2015-04-01
data streams or by considering longer observation windows no systematic analysis has been carried out so far to explain the large differences among results. We consider adjoint based methods to investigate inverse problems using DALEC and various data streams. Using resolution matrices we study the nature of the inverse problems (solution existence, uniqueness and stability) and show how standard regularization techniques affect resolution and stability properties. Instead of using standard prior information as a penalty term in the cost function to regularize the problems we constraint the parameter space using ecological balance conditions and inequality constraints. The efficiency and rapidity of this approach allows us to compute ensembles of solutions to the inverse problems from which we can establish the robustness of the variational method and obtain non Gaussian posterior distributions for the model parameters and initial carbon stocks.
Test models for improving filtering with model errors through stochastic parameter estimation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gershgorin, B.; Harlim, J.; Majda, A.J.
2010-01-01
The filtering skill for turbulent signals from nature is often limited by model errors created by utilizing an imperfect model for filtering. Updating the parameters in the imperfect model through stochastic parameter estimation is one way to increase filtering skill and model performance. Here a suite of stringent test models for filtering with stochastic parameter estimation is developed based on the Stochastic Parameterization Extended Kalman Filter (SPEKF). These new SPEKF-algorithms systematically correct both multiplicative and additive biases and involve exact formulas for propagating the mean and covariance including the parameters in the test model. A comprehensive study is presented of robust parameter regimes for increasing filtering skill through stochastic parameter estimation for turbulent signals as the observation time and observation noise are varied and even when the forcing is incorrectly specified. The results here provide useful guidelines for filtering turbulent signals in more complex systems with significant model errors.
Parameter extraction of different fuel cell models with transferred adaptive differential evolution
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gong, Wenyin; Yan, Xuesong; Liu, Xiaobo; Cai, Zhihua
2015-01-01
To improve the design and control of FC (fuel cell) models, it is important to extract their unknown parameters. Generally, the parameter extraction problems of FC models can be transformed as nonlinear and multi-variable optimization problems. To extract the parameters of different FC models exactly and fast, in this paper, we propose a transferred adaptive DE (differential evolution) framework, in which the successful parameters of the adaptive DE solving previous problems are properly transferred to solve new optimization problems in the similar problem-domains. Based on this framework, an improved adaptive DE method (TRADE, in short) is presented as an illustration. To verify the performance of our proposal, TRADE is used to extract the unknown parameters of two types of fuel cell models, i.e., PEMFC (proton exchange membrane fuel cell) and SOFC (solid oxide fuel cell). The results of TRADE are also compared with those of other state-of-the-art EAs (evolutionary algorithms). Even though the modification is very simple, the results indicate that TRADE can extract the parameters of both PEMFC and SOFC models exactly and fast. Moreover, the V–I characteristics obtained by TRADE agree well with the simulated and experimental data in all cases for both types of fuel cell models. Also, it improves the performance of the original adaptive DE significantly in terms of both the quality of final solutions and the convergence speed in all cases. Additionally, TRADE is able to provide better results compared with other EAs. - Highlights: • A framework of transferred adaptive differential evolution is proposed. • Based on the framework, an improved differential evolution (TRADE) is presented. • TRADE obtains very promising results to extract the parameters of PEMFC and SOFC models
Improving a DSM Obtained by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for Flood Modelling
Mourato, Sandra; Fernandez, Paulo; Pereira, Luísa; Moreira, Madalena
2017-12-01
According to the EU flood risks directive, flood hazard map must be used to assess the flood risk. These maps can be developed with hydraulic modelling tools using a Digital Surface Runoff Model (DSRM). During the last decade, important evolutions of the spatial data processing has been developed which will certainly improve the hydraulic models results. Currently, images acquired with Red/Green/Blue (RGB) camera transported by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) are seen as a good alternative data sources to represent the terrain surface with a high level of resolution and precision. The question is if the digital surface model obtain with this data is adequate enough for a good representation of the hydraulics flood characteristics. For this purpose, the hydraulic model HEC-RAS was run with 4 different DSRM for an 8.5 km reach of the Lis River in Portugal. The computational performance of the 4 modelling implementations is evaluated. Two hydrometric stations water level records were used as boundary conditions of the hydraulic model. The records from a third hydrometric station were used to validate the optimal DSRM. The HEC-RAS results had the best performance during the validation step were the ones where the DSRM with integration of the two altimetry data sources.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gao Yonghua; He Mingzhong; Duan Chungui
2003-01-01
The authors present an x rescaling parameters' formula for partons in the extended x rescaling model, where we have established the connection between the rescaling parameter and the mean binding energy. Using x rescaling parameters obtained by the x rescaling parameters' formula, we calculate the average nucleon structure function ratio of DIS process in l-A (Al, Ca, Pb) collision to l-C collision respectively. The result is in good agreement with experimental data
Biosphere modelling for a HLW repository - scenario and parameter variations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Grogan, H.
1985-03-01
In Switzerland high-level radioactive wastes have been considered for disposal in deep-lying crystalline formations. The individual doses to man resulting from radionuclides entering the biosphere via groundwater transport are calculated. The main recipient area modelled, which constitutes the base case, is a broad gravel terrace sited along the south bank of the river Rhine. An alternative recipient region, a small valley with a well, is also modelled. A number of parameter variations are performed in order to ascertain their impact on the doses. Finally two scenario changes are modelled somewhat simplistically, these consider different prevailing climates, namely tundra and a warmer climate than present. In the base case negligibly low doses to man in the long term, resulting from the existence of a HLW repository have been calculated. Cs-135 results in the largest dose (8.4E-7 mrem/y at 6.1E+6 y) while Np-237 gives the largest dose from the actinides (3.6E-8 mrem/y). The response of the model to parameter variations cannot be easily predicted due to non-linear coupling of many of the parameters. However, the calculated doses were negligibly low in all cases as were those resulting from the two scenario variations. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hamimid, M.; Mimoune, S.M.; Feliachi, M.; Atallah, K.
2014-01-01
In this present work, a non centered minor hysteresis loops evaluation is performed using the exponential transforms (ET) of the modified inverse Jiles–Atherton model parameters. This model improves the non centered minor hysteresis loops representation. The parameters of the non centered minor hysteresis loops are obtained from exponential expressions related to the major ones. The parameters of minor loops are obtained by identification using the stochastic optimization method “simulated annealing”. The four parameters of JA model (a,α, k and c) obtained by this transformation are applied only in both ascending and descending branches of the non centered minor hysteresis loops while the major ones are applied to the rest of the cycle. This proposal greatly improves both branches and consequently the minor loops. To validate this model, calculated non-centered minor hysteresis loops are compared with measured ones and good agreements are obtained
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Khaled MAMMAR
2013-11-01
Full Text Available In this paper, a new approach based on Experimental of design methodology (DoE is used to estimate the optimal of unknown model parameters proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC. This proposed approach combines the central composite face-centered (CCF and numerical PEMFC electrochemical. Simulation results obtained using electrochemical model help to predict the cell voltage in terms of inlet partial pressures of hydrogen and oxygen, stack temperature, and operating current. The value of the previous model and (CCF design methodology is used for parametric analysis of electrochemical model. Thus it is possible to evaluate the relative importance of each parameter to the simulation accuracy. However this methodology is able to define the exact values of the parameters from the manufacture data. It was tested for the BCS 500-W stack PEM Generator, a stack rated at 500 W, manufactured by American Company BCS Technologies FC.
Polaron mobility obtained by a variational approach for lattice Fröhlich models
Kornjača, Milan; Vukmirović, Nenad
2018-04-01
Charge carrier mobility for a class of lattice models with long-range electron-phonon interaction was investigated. The approach for mobility calculation is based on a suitably chosen unitary transformation of the model Hamiltonian which transforms it into the form where the remaining interaction part can be treated as a perturbation. Relevant spectral functions were then obtained using Matsubara Green's functions technique and charge carrier mobility was evaluated using Kubo's linear response formula. Numerical results were presented for a wide range of electron-phonon interaction strengths and temperatures in the case of one-dimensional version of the model. The results indicate that the mobility decreases with increasing temperature for all electron-phonon interaction strengths in the investigated range, while longer interaction range leads to more mobile carriers.
Contaminant transport in aquifers: improving the determination of model parameters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sabino, C.V.S.; Moreira, R.M.; Lula, Z.L.; Chausson, Y.; Magalhaes, W.F.; Vianna, M.N.
1998-01-01
Parameters conditioning the migration behavior of cesium and mercury are measured with their tracers 137 Cs and 203 Hg in the laboratory, using both batch and column experiments. Batch tests were used to define the sorption isotherm characteristics. Also investigated were the influences of some test parameters, in particular those due to the volume of water to mass of soil ratio (V/m). A provisional relationship between V/m and the distribution coefficient, K d , has been advanced, and a procedure to estimate K d 's valid for environmental values of the ratio V/m has been suggested. Column tests provided the parameters for a transport model. A major problem to be dealt with in such tests is the collimation of the radioactivity probe. Besides mechanically optimizing the collimator, a deconvolution procedure has been suggested and tested, with statistical criteria, to filter off both noise and spurious tracer signals. Correction procedures for the integrating effect introduced by sampling at the exit of columns have also been developed. These techniques may be helpful in increasing the accuracy required in the measurement of parameters conditioning contaminant migration in soils, thus allowing more reliable predictions based on mathematical model applications. (author)
Radcliffe, D E; Lin, Z; Risse, L M; Romeis, J J; Jackson, C R
2009-01-01
Lake Allatoona is a large reservoir north of Atlanta, GA, that drains an area of about 2870 km2 scheduled for a phosphorus (P) total maximum daily load (TMDL). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model has been widely used for watershed-scale modeling of P, but there is little guidance on how to estimate P-related parameters, especially those related to in-stream P processes. In this paper, methods are demonstrated to individually estimate SWAT soil-related P parameters and to collectively estimate P parameters related to stream processes. Stream related parameters were obtained using the nutrient uptake length concept. In a manner similar to experiments conducted by stream ecologists, a small point source is simulated in a headwater sub-basin of the SWAT models, then the in-stream parameter values are adjusted collectively to get an uptake length of P similar to the values measured in the streams in the region. After adjusting the in-stream parameters, the P uptake length estimated in the simulations ranged from 53 to 149 km compared to uptake lengths measured by ecologists in the region of 11 to 85 km. Once the a priori P-related parameter set was developed, the SWAT models of main tributaries to Lake Allatoona were calibrated for daily transport. Models using SWAT P parameters derived from the methods in this paper outperformed models using default parameter values when predicting total P (TP) concentrations in streams during storm events and TP annual loads to Lake Allatoona.
Progressive Learning of Topic Modeling Parameters: A Visual Analytics Framework.
El-Assady, Mennatallah; Sevastjanova, Rita; Sperrle, Fabian; Keim, Daniel; Collins, Christopher
2018-01-01
Topic modeling algorithms are widely used to analyze the thematic composition of text corpora but remain difficult to interpret and adjust. Addressing these limitations, we present a modular visual analytics framework, tackling the understandability and adaptability of topic models through a user-driven reinforcement learning process which does not require a deep understanding of the underlying topic modeling algorithms. Given a document corpus, our approach initializes two algorithm configurations based on a parameter space analysis that enhances document separability. We abstract the model complexity in an interactive visual workspace for exploring the automatic matching results of two models, investigating topic summaries, analyzing parameter distributions, and reviewing documents. The main contribution of our work is an iterative decision-making technique in which users provide a document-based relevance feedback that allows the framework to converge to a user-endorsed topic distribution. We also report feedback from a two-stage study which shows that our technique results in topic model quality improvements on two independent measures.
Propagation channel characterization, parameter estimation, and modeling for wireless communications
Yin, Xuefeng
2016-01-01
Thoroughly covering channel characteristics and parameters, this book provides the knowledge needed to design various wireless systems, such as cellular communication systems, RFID and ad hoc wireless communication systems. It gives a detailed introduction to aspects of channels before presenting the novel estimation and modelling techniques which can be used to achieve accurate models. To systematically guide readers through the topic, the book is organised in three distinct parts. The first part covers the fundamentals of the characterization of propagation channels, including the conventional single-input single-output (SISO) propagation channel characterization as well as its extension to multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) cases. Part two focuses on channel measurements and channel data post-processing. Wideband channel measurements are introduced, including the equipment, technology and advantages and disadvantages of different data acquisition schemes. The channel parameter estimation methods are ...
Empirical flow parameters : a tool for hydraulic model validity
Asquith, William H.; Burley, Thomas E.; Cleveland, Theodore G.
2013-01-01
The objectives of this project were (1) To determine and present from existing data in Texas, relations between observed stream flow, topographic slope, mean section velocity, and other hydraulic factors, to produce charts such as Figure 1 and to produce empirical distributions of the various flow parameters to provide a methodology to "check if model results are way off!"; (2) To produce a statistical regional tool to estimate mean velocity or other selected parameters for storm flows or other conditional discharges at ungauged locations (most bridge crossings) in Texas to provide a secondary way to compare such values to a conventional hydraulic modeling approach. (3.) To present ancillary values such as Froude number, stream power, Rosgen channel classification, sinuosity, and other selected characteristics (readily determinable from existing data) to provide additional information to engineers concerned with the hydraulic-soil-foundation component of transportation infrastructure.
Genetic Learning of Fuzzy Parameters in Predictive and Decision Support Modelling
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nebot
2012-04-01
Full Text Available In this research a genetic fuzzy system (GFS is proposed that performs discretization parameter learning in the context of the Fuzzy Inductive Reasoning (FIR methodology and the Linguistic Rule FIR (LR-FIR algorithm. The main goal of the GFS is to take advantage of the potentialities of GAs to learn the fuzzification parameters of the FIR and LR-FIR approaches in order to obtain reliable and useful predictive (FIR models and decision support (LR-FIR models. The GFS is evaluated in an e-learning context.
Stability switches, Hopf bifurcation and chaos of a neuron model with delay-dependent parameters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Xu, X.; Hu, H.Y.; Wang, H.L.
2006-01-01
It is very common that neural network systems usually involve time delays since the transmission of information between neurons is not instantaneous. Because memory intensity of the biological neuron usually depends on time history, some of the parameters may be delay dependent. Yet, little attention has been paid to the dynamics of such systems. In this Letter, a detailed analysis on the stability switches, Hopf bifurcation and chaos of a neuron model with delay-dependent parameters is given. Moreover, the direction and the stability of the bifurcating periodic solutions are obtained by the normal form theory and the center manifold theorem. It shows that the dynamics of the neuron model with delay-dependent parameters is quite different from that of systems with delay-independent parameters only
Hussain, Faraz; Jha, Sumit K; Jha, Susmit; Langmead, Christopher J
2014-01-01
Stochastic models are increasingly used to study the behaviour of biochemical systems. While the structure of such models is often readily available from first principles, unknown quantitative features of the model are incorporated into the model as parameters. Algorithmic discovery of parameter values from experimentally observed facts remains a challenge for the computational systems biology community. We present a new parameter discovery algorithm that uses simulated annealing, sequential hypothesis testing, and statistical model checking to learn the parameters in a stochastic model. We apply our technique to a model of glucose and insulin metabolism used for in-silico validation of artificial pancreata and demonstrate its effectiveness by developing parallel CUDA-based implementation for parameter synthesis in this model.
Application of an Evolutionary Algorithm for Parameter Optimization in a Gully Erosion Model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rengers, Francis; Lunacek, Monte; Tucker, Gregory
2016-06-01
Herein we demonstrate how to use model optimization to determine a set of best-fit parameters for a landform model simulating gully incision and headcut retreat. To achieve this result we employed the Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy (CMA-ES), an iterative process in which samples are created based on a distribution of parameter values that evolve over time to better fit an objective function. CMA-ES efficiently finds optimal parameters, even with high-dimensional objective functions that are non-convex, multimodal, and non-separable. We ran model instances in parallel on a high-performance cluster, and from hundreds of model runs we obtained the best parameter choices. This method is far superior to brute-force search algorithms, and has great potential for many applications in earth science modeling. We found that parameters representing boundary conditions tended to converge toward an optimal single value, whereas parameters controlling geomorphic processes are defined by a range of optimal values.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Guang-zhou Chen
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Parameter identification plays a crucial role for simulating and using model. This paper firstly carried out the sensitivity analysis of the 2-chlorophenol oxidation model in supercritical water using the Monte Carlo method. Then, to address the nonlinearity of the model, two improved differential search (DS algorithms were proposed to carry out the parameter identification of the model. One strategy is to adopt the Latin hypercube sampling method to replace the uniform distribution of initial population; the other is to combine DS with simplex method. The results of sensitivity analysis reveal the sensitivity and the degree of difficulty identified for every model parameter. Furthermore, the posteriori probability distribution of parameters and the collaborative relationship between any two parameters can be obtained. To verify the effectiveness of the improved algorithms, the optimization performance of improved DS in kinetic parameter estimation is studied and compared with that of the basic DS algorithm, differential evolution, artificial bee colony optimization, and quantum-behaved particle swarm optimization. And the experimental results demonstrate that the DS with the Latin hypercube sampling method does not present better performance, while the hybrid methods have the advantages of strong global search ability and local search ability and are more effective than the other algorithms.
Bretas, Elisa Almeida Sathler; Torres, Ulysses S; Torres, Lucas Rios; Bekhor, Daniel; Saito Filho, Celso Fernando; Racy, Douglas Jorge; Faggioni, Lorenzo; D'Ippolito, Giuseppe
2017-10-01
To evaluate the agreement between the measurements of perfusion CT parameters in normal livers by using two different software packages. This retrospective study was based on 78 liver perfusion CT examinations acquired for detecting suspected liver metastasis. Patients with any morphological or functional hepatic abnormalities were excluded. The final analysis included 37 patients (59.7 ± 14.9 y). Two readers (1 and 2) independently measured perfusion parameters using different software packages from two major manufacturers (A and B). Arterial perfusion (AP) and portal perfusion (PP) were determined using the dual-input vascular one-compartmental model. Inter-reader agreement for each package and intrareader agreement between both packages were assessed with intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) and Bland-Altman statistics. Inter-reader agreement was substantial for AP using software A (ICC = 0.82) and B (ICC = 0.85-0.86), fair for PP using software A (ICC = 0.44) and fair to moderate for PP using software B (ICC = 0.56-0.77). Intrareader agreement between software A and B ranged from slight to moderate (ICC = 0.32-0.62) for readers 1 and 2 considering the AP parameters, and from fair to moderate (ICC = 0.40-0.69) for readers 1 and 2 considering the PP parameters. At best there was only moderate agreement between both software packages, resulting in some uncertainty and suboptimal reproducibility. Advances in knowledge: Software-dependent factors may contribute to variance in perfusion measurements, demanding further technical improvements. AP measurements seem to be the most reproducible parameter to be adopted when evaluating liver perfusion CT.
Estimation of Kinetic Parameters in an Automotive SCR Catalyst Model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Åberg, Andreas; Widd, Anders; Abildskov, Jens
2016-01-01
be used directly for accurate full-scale transient simulations. The model was validated against full-scale data with an engine following the European Transient Cycle. The validation showed that the predictive capability for nitrogen oxides (NOx) was satisfactory. After re-estimation of the adsorption...... and desorption parameters with full-scale transient data, the fit for both NOx and NH3-slip was satisfactory....
Mathematical models to predict rheological parameters of lateritic hydromixtures
Gabriel Hernández-Ramírez; Arístides A. Legrá-Lobaina; Beatriz Ramírez-Serrano; Liudmila Pérez-García
2017-01-01
The present work had as objective to establish mathematical models that allow the prognosis of the rheological parameters of the lateritic pulp at concentrations of solids from 35% to 48%, temperature of the preheated hydromixture superior to 82 ° C and number of mineral between 3 and 16. Four samples of lateritic pulp were used in the study at different process locations. The results allowed defining that the plastic properties of the lateritic pulp in the conditions of this study conform to...
Mathematical properties and parameter estimation for transit compartment pharmacodynamic models.
Yates, James W T
2008-07-03
One feature of recent research in pharmacodynamic modelling has been the move towards more mechanistically based model structures. However, in all of these models there are common sub-systems, such as feedback loops and time-delays, whose properties and contribution to the model behaviour merit some mathematical analysis. In this paper a common pharmacodynamic model sub-structure is considered: the linear transit compartment. These models have a number of interesting properties as the length of the cascade chain is increased. In the limiting case a pure time-delay is achieved [Milsum, J.H., 1966. Biological Control Systems Analysis. McGraw-Hill Book Company, New York] and the initial behaviour becoming increasingly sensitive to parameter value perturbation. It is also shown that the modelled drug effect is attenuated, though the duration of action is longer. Through this analysis the range of behaviours that such models are capable of reproducing are characterised. The properties of these models and the experimental requirements are discussed in order to highlight how mathematical analysis prior to experimentation can enhance the utility of mathematical modelling.
Jánský, Jaroslav; Lucas, Greg M.; Kalb, Christina; Bayona, Victor; Peterson, Michael J.; Deierling, Wiebke; Flyer, Natasha; Pasko, Victor P.
2017-12-01
This work analyzes different current source and conductivity parameterizations and their influence on the diurnal variation of the global electric circuit (GEC). The diurnal variations of the current source parameterizations obtained using electric field and conductivity measurements from plane overflights combined with global Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite data give generally good agreement with measured diurnal variation of the electric field at Vostok, Antarctica, where reference experimental measurements are performed. An approach employing 85 GHz passive microwave observations to infer currents within the GEC is compared and shows the best agreement in amplitude and phase with experimental measurements. To study the conductivity influence, GEC models solving the continuity equation in 3-D are used to calculate atmospheric resistance using yearly averaged conductivity obtained from the global circulation model Community Earth System Model (CESM). Then, using current source parameterization combining mean currents and global counts of electrified clouds, if the exponential conductivity is substituted by the conductivity from CESM, the peak to peak diurnal variation of the ionospheric potential of the GEC decreases from 24% to 20%. The main reason for the change is the presence of clouds while effects of 222Rn ionization, aerosols, and topography are less pronounced. The simulated peak to peak diurnal variation of the electric field at Vostok is increased from 15% to 18% from the diurnal variation of the global current in the GEC if conductivity from CESM is used.
Starzynska-Janiszewska, A; Stodolak, B; Dulinski, R; Mickowska, B
2012-04-01
Tempeh is a popular Indonesian product obtained from legume seeds by solid-state fermentation with Rhizopus sp. The aim of this research was to study the effect of simultaneous mixed-culture fermentation of grass pea seeds on selected parameters of products as compared to traditional tempeh. The inoculum contained different ratios of Rhizopus oligosporus and Aspergillus oryzae spores. The simultaneous fermentation of grass pea seeds with inoculum consisting of 1.2 × 10(6) R. oligosporus and 0.6 × 10(6) A. oryzae spores (per 60 g of seeds) resulted in a product of improved quality, as compared with traditionally made tempeh (obtained after inoculation with 1.2 × 10(6) R. oligosporus spores), at the same fermentation time. This product had radical scavenging ability 70% higher than the one obtained with pure R. oligosporus culture and contained 2.23 g/kg dm of soluble phenols. The thiamin and riboflavin levels were above three (340 µg/g dm) and two (50.50 µg/g dm) folds higher than in traditionally made tempeh, respectively. The product had 65% in vitro bioavailability of proteins and 33% in vitro bioavailability of sugars. It also contained 40% less 3-N-oxalyl-L-2, 3-diaminopropionic acid (0.074 g/kg dm), as compared to traditional tempeh.
Estimation Parameters And Modelling Zero Inflated Negative Binomial
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Cindy Cahyaning Astuti
2016-11-01
Full Text Available Regression analysis is used to determine relationship between one or several response variable (Y with one or several predictor variables (X. Regression model between predictor variables and the Poisson distributed response variable is called Poisson Regression Model. Since, Poisson Regression requires an equality between mean and variance, it is not appropriate to apply this model on overdispersion (variance is higher than mean. Poisson regression model is commonly used to analyze the count data. On the count data type, it is often to encounteredd some observations that have zero value with large proportion of zero value on the response variable (zero Inflation. Poisson regression can be used to analyze count data but it has not been able to solve problem of excess zero value on the response variable. An alternative model which is more suitable for overdispersion data and can solve the problem of excess zero value on the response variable is Zero Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB. In this research, ZINB is applied on the case of Tetanus Neonatorum in East Java. The aim of this research is to examine the likelihood function and to form an algorithm to estimate the parameter of ZINB and also applying ZINB model in the case of Tetanus Neonatorum in East Java. Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE method is used to estimate the parameter on ZINB and the likelihood function is maximized using Expectation Maximization (EM algorithm. Test results of ZINB regression model showed that the predictor variable have a partial significant effect at negative binomial model is the percentage of pregnant women visits and the percentage of maternal health personnel assisted, while the predictor variables that have a partial significant effect at zero inflation model is the percentage of neonatus visits.
COMPREHENSIVE CHECK MEASUREMENT OF KEY PARAMETERS ON MODEL BELT CONVEYOR
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vlastimil MONI
2013-07-01
Full Text Available Complex measurements of characteristic parameters realised on a long distance model belt conveyor are described. The main objective was to complete and combine the regular measurements of electric power on drives of belt conveyors operated in Czech opencast mines with measurements of other physical quantities and to gain by this way an image of their mutual relations and relations of quantities derived from them. The paper includes a short description and results of the measurements on an experimental model conveyor with a closed material transport way.
Information Theoretic Tools for Parameter Fitting in Coarse Grained Models
Kalligiannaki, Evangelia
2015-01-07
We study the application of information theoretic tools for model reduction in the case of systems driven by stochastic dynamics out of equilibrium. The model/dimension reduction is considered by proposing parametrized coarse grained dynamics and finding the optimal parameter set for which the relative entropy rate with respect to the atomistic dynamics is minimized. The minimization problem leads to a generalization of the force matching methods to non equilibrium systems. A multiplicative noise example reveals the importance of the diffusion coefficient in the optimization problem.
Surrogate based approaches to parameter inference in ocean models
Knio, Omar
2016-01-06
This talk discusses the inference of physical parameters using model surrogates. Attention is focused on the use of sampling schemes to build suitable representations of the dependence of the model response on uncertain input data. Non-intrusive spectral projections and regularized regressions are used for this purpose. A Bayesian inference formalism is then applied to update the uncertain inputs based on available measurements or observations. To perform the update, we consider two alternative approaches, based on the application of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods or of adjoint-based optimization techniques. We outline the implementation of these techniques to infer dependence of wind drag, bottom drag, and internal mixing coefficients.
Surrogate based approaches to parameter inference in ocean models
Knio, Omar
2016-01-01
This talk discusses the inference of physical parameters using model surrogates. Attention is focused on the use of sampling schemes to build suitable representations of the dependence of the model response on uncertain input data. Non-intrusive spectral projections and regularized regressions are used for this purpose. A Bayesian inference formalism is then applied to update the uncertain inputs based on available measurements or observations. To perform the update, we consider two alternative approaches, based on the application of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods or of adjoint-based optimization techniques. We outline the implementation of these techniques to infer dependence of wind drag, bottom drag, and internal mixing coefficients.
Kim, Kyung Yong; Lee, Won-Chan
2017-01-01
This article provides a detailed description of three factors (specification of the ability distribution, numerical integration, and frame of reference for the item parameter estimates) that might affect the item parameter estimation of the three-parameter logistic model, and compares five item calibration methods, which are combinations of the…
A model to obtain an optimum erbium desity for gain increasing in EDFA
E. Arzi; A. Hassani; F. E. Seraji
2003-01-01
In this paper, we suggest a novel model, based on input pump power and wave guidestructure, to calculate the Er-density profile in Erbium doped fiber amplifiers. This optimization is carried out for both SMF and DSF fibers. These optimized profiles have a Gaussian-like shape. Using the SMF optimized Er-density profile, high gain enhancement is obtained in a relatively short length of fibers. On the other hand, the DSF optimized profile shows small changes in the gain, which agrees with the ...
Managing structural design through integrated models and obtaining increased safety and economy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Diaz, B.E.; Thomaz, E.C.S.
1987-01-01
The use of large finite element (FE) models for the design of reinforced concrete elements in nuclear power plants will be treated. For this technique a set of computer programs is necessary, since the amount of data is very large. With this design method a series of advantages is obtained such as: reduction of reinforcing steel expenditure, increase of safety through a better representation of the structures, an adequate control of the calculation due to the transparent method of design, reduction of design time due to the automatic computation and so on. (author)
Ordinary Mathematical Models in Calculating the Aviation GTE Parameters
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
E. A. Khoreva
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The paper presents the analytical review results of the ordinary mathematical models of the operating process used to study aviation GTE parameters and characteristics at all stages of its creation and operation. Considers the mathematical models of the zero and the first level, which are mostly used when solving typical problems in calculating parameters and characteristics of engines.Presents a number of practical problems arising in designing aviation GTE for various applications.The application of mathematical models of the zero-level engine can be quite appropriate when the engine is considered as a component in the aircraft system to estimate its calculated individual flight performance or when modeling the flight cycle of the aircrafts of different purpose.The paper demonstrates that introduction of correction functions into the first-level mathematical models in solving typical problems (influence of the Reynolds number, characteristics deterioration of the units during the overhaul period of engine, as well as influence of the flow inhomogeneity at the inlet because of manufacturing tolerance, etc. enables providing a sufficient engineering estimate accuracy to reflect a realistic operating process in the engine and its elements.
Applicability of genetic algorithms to parameter estimation of economic models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marcel Ševela
2004-01-01
Full Text Available The paper concentrates on capability of genetic algorithms for parameter estimation of non-linear economic models. In the paper we test the ability of genetic algorithms to estimate of parameters of demand function for durable goods and simultaneously search for parameters of genetic algorithm that lead to maximum effectiveness of the computation algorithm. The genetic algorithms connect deterministic iterative computation methods with stochastic methods. In the genteic aůgorithm approach each possible solution is represented by one individual, those life and lifes of all generations of individuals run under a few parameter of genetic algorithm. Our simulations resulted in optimal mutation rate of 15% of all bits in chromosomes, optimal elitism rate 20%. We can not set the optimal extend of generation, because it proves positive correlation with effectiveness of genetic algorithm in all range under research, but its impact is degreasing. The used genetic algorithm was sensitive to mutation rate at most, than to extend of generation. The sensitivity to elitism rate is not so strong.
Spatial extrapolation of light use efficiency model parameters to predict gross primary production
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Karsten Schulz
2011-12-01
Full Text Available To capture the spatial and temporal variability of the gross primary production as a key component of the global carbon cycle, the light use efficiency modeling approach in combination with remote sensing data has shown to be well suited. Typically, the model parameters, such as the maximum light use efficiency, are either set to a universal constant or to land class dependent values stored in look-up tables. In this study, we employ the machine learning technique support vector regression to explicitly relate the model parameters of a light use efficiency model calibrated at several FLUXNET sites to site-specific characteristics obtained by meteorological measurements, ecological estimations and remote sensing data. A feature selection algorithm extracts the relevant site characteristics in a cross-validation, and leads to an individual set of characteristic attributes for each parameter. With this set of attributes, the model parameters can be estimated at sites where a parameter calibration is not possible due to the absence of eddy covariance flux measurement data. This will finally allow a spatially continuous model application. The performance of the spatial extrapolation scheme is evaluated with a cross-validation approach, which shows the methodology to be well suited to recapture the variability of gross primary production across the study sites.
Tango, Fabio; Minin, Luca; Tesauri, Francesco; Montanari, Roberto
2010-03-01
This paper describes the field tests on a driving simulator carried out to validate the algorithms and the correlations of dynamic parameters, specifically driving task demand and drivers' distraction, able to predict drivers' intentions. These parameters belong to the driver's model developed by AIDE (Adaptive Integrated Driver-vehicle InterfacE) European Integrated Project. Drivers' behavioural data have been collected from the simulator tests to model and validate these parameters using machine learning techniques, specifically the adaptive neuro fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) and the artificial neural network (ANN). Two models of task demand and distraction have been developed, one for each adopted technique. The paper provides an overview of the driver's model, the description of the task demand and distraction modelling and the tests conducted for the validation of these parameters. A test comparing predicted and expected outcomes of the modelled parameters for each machine learning technique has been carried out: for distraction, in particular, promising results (low prediction errors) have been obtained by adopting an artificial neural network.
Tehrani, Joubin Nasehi; Yang, Yin; Werner, Rene; Lu, Wei; Low, Daniel; Guo, Xiaohu; Wang, Jing
2015-11-21
Finite element analysis (FEA)-based biomechanical modeling can be used to predict lung respiratory motion. In this technique, elastic models and biomechanical parameters are two important factors that determine modeling accuracy. We systematically evaluated the effects of lung and lung tumor biomechanical modeling approaches and related parameters to improve the accuracy of motion simulation of lung tumor center of mass (TCM) displacements. Experiments were conducted with four-dimensional computed tomography (4D-CT). A Quasi-Newton FEA was performed to simulate lung and related tumor displacements between end-expiration (phase 50%) and other respiration phases (0%, 10%, 20%, 30%, and 40%). Both linear isotropic and non-linear hyperelastic materials, including the neo-Hookean compressible and uncoupled Mooney-Rivlin models, were used to create a finite element model (FEM) of lung and tumors. Lung surface displacement vector fields (SDVFs) were obtained by registering the 50% phase CT to other respiration phases, using the non-rigid demons registration algorithm. The obtained SDVFs were used as lung surface displacement boundary conditions in FEM. The sensitivity of TCM displacement to lung and tumor biomechanical parameters was assessed in eight patients for all three models. Patient-specific optimal parameters were estimated by minimizing the TCM motion simulation errors between phase 50% and phase 0%. The uncoupled Mooney-Rivlin material model showed the highest TCM motion simulation accuracy. The average TCM motion simulation absolute errors for the Mooney-Rivlin material model along left-right, anterior-posterior, and superior-inferior directions were 0.80 mm, 0.86 mm, and 1.51 mm, respectively. The proposed strategy provides a reliable method to estimate patient-specific biomechanical parameters in FEM for lung tumor motion simulation.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tehrani, Joubin Nasehi; Wang, Jing; Yang, Yin; Werner, Rene; Lu, Wei; Low, Daniel; Guo, Xiaohu
2015-01-01
Finite element analysis (FEA)-based biomechanical modeling can be used to predict lung respiratory motion. In this technique, elastic models and biomechanical parameters are two important factors that determine modeling accuracy. We systematically evaluated the effects of lung and lung tumor biomechanical modeling approaches and related parameters to improve the accuracy of motion simulation of lung tumor center of mass (TCM) displacements. Experiments were conducted with four-dimensional computed tomography (4D-CT). A Quasi-Newton FEA was performed to simulate lung and related tumor displacements between end-expiration (phase 50%) and other respiration phases (0%, 10%, 20%, 30%, and 40%). Both linear isotropic and non-linear hyperelastic materials, including the neo-Hookean compressible and uncoupled Mooney–Rivlin models, were used to create a finite element model (FEM) of lung and tumors. Lung surface displacement vector fields (SDVFs) were obtained by registering the 50% phase CT to other respiration phases, using the non-rigid demons registration algorithm. The obtained SDVFs were used as lung surface displacement boundary conditions in FEM. The sensitivity of TCM displacement to lung and tumor biomechanical parameters was assessed in eight patients for all three models. Patient-specific optimal parameters were estimated by minimizing the TCM motion simulation errors between phase 50% and phase 0%. The uncoupled Mooney–Rivlin material model showed the highest TCM motion simulation accuracy. The average TCM motion simulation absolute errors for the Mooney–Rivlin material model along left-right, anterior–posterior, and superior–inferior directions were 0.80 mm, 0.86 mm, and 1.51 mm, respectively. The proposed strategy provides a reliable method to estimate patient-specific biomechanical parameters in FEM for lung tumor motion simulation. (paper)
A Modeling Approach to Enhance Animal-Obtained Oceanographic Data Geo- Position
Tremblay, Y.; Robinson, P.; Weise, M. J.; Costa, D. P.
2006-12-01
Diving animals are increasingly being used as platforms to collect oceanographic data such as CTD profiles. Animal borne sensors provide an amazing amount of data that have to be spatially referenced. Because of technical limitations geo-position of these data mostly comes from the interpolation of locations obtained through the ARGOS positioning system. This system lacks spatio-temporal resolution compared to the Global Positioning System (GPS) and therefore, the positions of these oceanographic data are not well defined. A consequence of this is that many data collected in coastal regions are discarded, because many casts' records fell on land. Using modeling techniques, we propose a method to deal with this problem. The method is rather intuitive, and instead of deleting unreasonable or low-quality locations, it uses them by taking into account their lack of precision as a source of information. In a similar way, coastlines are used as sources of information, because marine animals do not travel over land. The method was evaluated using simultaneously obtained tracks with the Argos and GPS system. The tracks obtained from this method are considerably enhanced and allow a more accurate geo-reference of oceanographic data. In addition, the method provides a way to evaluate spatial errors for each cast that is not otherwise possible with classical filtering methods.
Study on Identification of Material Model Parameters from Compact Tension Test on Concrete Specimens
Hokes, Filip; Kral, Petr; Husek, Martin; Kala, Jiri
2017-10-01
Identification of a concrete material model parameters using optimization is based on a calculation of a difference between experimentally measured and numerically obtained data. Measure of the difference can be formulated via root mean squared error that is often used for determination of accuracy of a mathematical model in the field of meteorology or demography. The quality of the identified parameters is, however, determined not only by right choice of an objective function but also by the source experimental data. One of the possible way is to use load-displacement curves from three-point bending tests that were performed on concrete specimens. This option shows the significance of modulus of elasticity, tensile strength and specific fracture energy. Another possible option is to use experimental data from compact tension test. It is clear that the response in the second type of test is also dependent on the above mentioned material parameters. The question is whether the parameters identified within three-point bending test and within compact tension test will reach the same values. The presented article brings the numerical study of inverse identification of material model parameters from experimental data measured during compact tension tests. The article also presents utilization of the modified sensitivity analysis that calculates the sensitivity of the material model parameters for different parts of loading curve. The main goal of the article is to describe the process of inverse identification of parameters for plasticity-based material model of concrete and prepare data for future comparison with identified values of the material model parameters from different type of fracture tests.
Determining the Walker exponent and developing a modified Smith-Watson-Topper parameter model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lv, Zhiqiang; Huang, Hong Zhong; Wang, Hai Kun; Gao, Huiying; Zuo, Fang Jun [University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu (China)
2016-03-15
Mean stress effects significantly influence the fatigue life of components. In general, tensile mean stresses are known to reduce the fatigue life of components, whereas compressive mean stresses are known to increase it. To date, various methods that account for mean stress effects have been studied. In this research, considering the high accuracy of mean stress correction and the difficulty in obtaining the material parameter of the Walker method, a practical method is proposed to describe the material parameter of this method. The test data of various materials are then used to verify the proposed practical method. Furthermore, by applying the Walker material parameter and the Smith-Watson-Topper (SWT) parameter, a modified strain-life model is developed to consider sensitivity to mean stress of materials. In addition, three sets of experimental fatigue data from super alloy GH4133, aluminum alloy 7075-T651, and carbon steel are used to estimate the accuracy of the proposed model. A comparison is also made between the SWT parameter method and the proposed strainlife model. The proposed strain-life model provides more accurate life prediction results than the SWT parameter method.
Innovation of Methods for Measurement and Modelling of Twisted Pair Parameters
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lukas Cepa
2011-01-01
Full Text Available The goal of this paper is to optimize a measurement methodology for the most accurate broadband modelling of characteristic impedance and other parameters for twisted pairs. Measured values and theirs comparison is presented in this article. Automated measurement facility was implemented at the Department of telecommunication of Faculty of electrical engineering of Czech technical university in Prague. Measurement facility contains RF switches allowing measurements up to 300 MHz or 1GHz. Measured twisted pair’s parameters can be obtained by measurement but for purposes of fundamental characteristics modelling is useful to define functions that model the properties of the twisted pair. Its primary and secondary parameters depend mostly on the frequency. For twisted pair deployment, we are interested in a frequency band range from 1 MHz to 100 MHz.
Sedukhin, V. V.; Anikeev, A. N.; Chumanov, I. V.
2017-11-01
Method optimizes hardening working layer parts’, working in high-abrasive conditions looks in this work: bland refractory particles WC and TiC in respect of 70/30 wt. % prepared by beforehand is applied on polystyrene model in casting’ mould. After metal poured in mould, withstand for crystallization, and then a study is carried out. Study macro- and microstructure received samples allows to say that thickness and structure received hardened layer depends on duration interactions blend harder carbides and liquid metal. Different character interactions various dispersed particles and matrix metal observed under the same conditions. Tests abrasive wear resistance received materials of method calculating residual masses was conducted in laboratory’ conditions. Results research wear resistance showed about that method obtaining harder coating of blend carbide tungsten and carbide titanium by means of drawing on surface foam polystyrene model before moulding, allows receive details with surface has wear resistance in 2.5 times higher, than details of analogy steel uncoated. Wherein energy costs necessary for transformation units mass’ substances in powder at obtained harder layer in 2.06 times higher, than materials uncoated.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
B. Anguelov
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Purpose: То assess the values of the top five topographic parameters of optic nerve head (ONH obtained by Heidelberg retina tomograph (HRT II in volunteers and primary open angle glaucoma (POAG patients with different stage of perimetric changes.Methods: 73 eyes (38 volunteers at the age of 56 years ±13, 11 men and 27 women and 170 eyes (90 patients at the age of 66 years ±12, 33 men and 57 women were examined. We performed the comprehensive ophthalmic examination, standard automated perimetry and measurement of the top five topographic parameters of ONH — rim area, rim volume, cup shape measure, height variation contour и mean RNFL thickness. For the purpose of this study we used HRT II.Results: We determine the values of the investigated topographic parameters of the ONH for healthy volunteers (rim area = 1.68±0.22 mm2, rim volume = 0.44±0.07 mm3, cup shape measure = –0.2±0.06, height variation contour = 0.38±0.08 mm and mean RNFL thickness = 0.24±0.03 mm and for the patients in different perimetric glaucoma stages (early stage: rim area = 1.52±0.47 mm2, rim volume = 0.38±0.17 mm3, cup shape measure = –0.14±0.1, height variation contour = 0.36±0.09 mm and mean RNFL thickness = 0.22±0.11 mm; moderate stage: rim area = 1.21±0.46 mm2, rim volume = 0.27±0.17 mm3, cup shape measure = –0.09±0.1, height variation contour = 0.36±0.17 mm and mean RNFL thickness = 0.16±0.12 mm; severe stage: rim area = 0.97±0.01 mm2, rim volume = 0.18±0.17 mm3, cup shape measure = –0.06±0.1, height variation contour = 0.28±0.11 mm and mean RNFL thickness = 0.17±0.11 mm. Hodapp-Parrish-Anderson (H-P-A ’s staging system includes three separate levels (early, moderate and severe of glaucoma according to visual field defects. Each stage is additionally characterized by the values of the top five topographic parameters of the ONH.Conclusion: Early diagnosis, staging and follow-up of POAG are based on both function and
A Review of Distributed Parameter Groundwater Management Modeling Methods
Gorelick, Steven M.
1983-04-01
Models which solve the governing groundwater flow or solute transport equations in conjunction with optimization techniques, such as linear and quadratic programing, are powerful aquifer management tools. Groundwater management models fall in two general categories: hydraulics or policy evaluation and water allocation. Groundwater hydraulic management models enable the determination of optimal locations and pumping rates of numerous wells under a variety of restrictions placed upon local drawdown, hydraulic gradients, and water production targets. Groundwater policy evaluation and allocation models can be used to study the influence upon regional groundwater use of institutional policies such as taxes and quotas. Furthermore, fairly complex groundwater-surface water allocation problems can be handled using system decomposition and multilevel optimization. Experience from the few real world applications of groundwater optimization-management techniques is summarized. Classified separately are methods for groundwater quality management aimed at optimal waste disposal in the subsurface. This classification is composed of steady state and transient management models that determine disposal patterns in such a way that water quality is protected at supply locations. Classes of research missing from the literature are groundwater quality management models involving nonlinear constraints, models which join groundwater hydraulic and quality simulations with political-economic management considerations, and management models that include parameter uncertainty.
Parameters of oscillation generation regions in open star cluster models
Danilov, V. M.; Putkov, S. I.
2017-07-01
We determine the masses and radii of central regions of open star cluster (OCL) models with small or zero entropy production and estimate the masses of oscillation generation regions in clustermodels based on the data of the phase-space coordinates of stars. The radii of such regions are close to the core radii of the OCL models. We develop a new method for estimating the total OCL masses based on the cluster core mass, the cluster and cluster core radii, and radial distribution of stars. This method yields estimates of dynamical masses of Pleiades, Praesepe, and M67, which agree well with the estimates of the total masses of the corresponding clusters based on proper motions and spectroscopic data for cluster stars.We construct the spectra and dispersion curves of the oscillations of the field of azimuthal velocities v φ in OCL models. Weak, low-amplitude unstable oscillations of v φ develop in cluster models near the cluster core boundary, and weak damped oscillations of v φ often develop at frequencies close to the frequencies of more powerful oscillations, which may reduce the non-stationarity degree in OCL models. We determine the number and parameters of such oscillations near the cores boundaries of cluster models. Such oscillations points to the possible role that gradient instability near the core of cluster models plays in the decrease of the mass of the oscillation generation regions and production of entropy in the cores of OCL models with massive extended cores.
Comparison of three-dimensional parameters of Halo CMEs using three cone models
Na, H.; Moon, Y.; Jang, S.; Lee, K.
2012-12-01
Halo coronal mass ejections (HCMEs) are a major cause of geomagnetic storms and their three dimensional structures are important for space weather. In this study, we compare three cone models: an elliptical cone model, an ice-cream cone model, and an asymmetric cone model. These models allow us to determine the three dimensional parameters of HCMEs such as radial speed, angular width, and the angle (γ) between sky plane and cone axis. We compare these parameters obtained from three models using 62 well-observed HCMEs observed by SOHO/LASCO from 2001 to 2002. Then we obtain the root mean square error (RMS error) between maximum measured projection speeds and their calculated projection speeds from the cone models. As a result, we find that the radial speeds obtained from the models are well correlated with one another (R > 0.84). The correlation coefficients between angular widths are ranges from 0.04 to 0.53 and those between γ values are from -0.15 to 0.47, which are much smaller than expected. The reason may be due to different assumptions and methods. The RMS errors between the maximum measured projection speeds and the maximum estimated projection speeds of the elliptical cone model, the ice-cream cone model, and the asymmetric cone model are 213 km/s, 254 km/s, and 267 km/s, respectively. And we obtain the correlation coefficients between the location from the models and the flare location (R > 0.75). Finally, we discuss strengths and weaknesses of these models in terms of space weather application.
Tension-compression asymmetry modelling: strategies for anisotropy parameters identification.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Barros Pedro
2016-01-01
Full Text Available This work presents details concerning the strategies and algorithms adopted in the fully implicit FE solver DD3IMP to model the orthotropic behavior of metallic sheets and the procedure for anisotropy parameters identification. The work is focused on the yield criterion developed by Cazacu, Plunkett and Barlat, 2006 [1], which accounts for both tension–compression asymmetry and orthotropic plastic behavior. The anisotropy parameters for a 2090-T3 aluminum alloy are identified accounting, or not, for the tension-compression asymmetry. The numerical simulation of a cup drawing is performed for this material, highlighting the importance of considering tension-compression asymmetry in the prediction of the earing profile, for materials with cubic structure, even if this phenomenon is relatively small.
Parameter Estimation in Stochastic Grey-Box Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kristensen, Niels Rode; Madsen, Henrik; Jørgensen, Sten Bay
2004-01-01
An efficient and flexible parameter estimation scheme for grey-box models in the sense of discretely, partially observed Ito stochastic differential equations with measurement noise is presented along with a corresponding software implementation. The estimation scheme is based on the extended...... Kalman filter and features maximum likelihood as well as maximum a posteriori estimation on multiple independent data sets, including irregularly sampled data sets and data sets with occasional outliers and missing observations. The software implementation is compared to an existing software tool...... and proves to have better performance both in terms of quality of estimates for nonlinear systems with significant diffusion and in terms of reproducibility. In particular, the new tool provides more accurate and more consistent estimates of the parameters of the diffusion term....
Modelling Technical and Economic Parameters in Selection of Manufacturing Devices
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Naqib Daneshjo
2017-11-01
Full Text Available Sustainable science and technology development is also conditioned by continuous development of means of production which have a key role in structure of each production system. Mechanical nature of the means of production is complemented by controlling and electronic devices in context of intelligent industry. A selection of production machines for a technological process or technological project has so far been practically resolved, often only intuitively. With regard to increasing intelligence, the number of variable parameters that have to be considered when choosing a production device is also increasing. It is necessary to use computing techniques and decision making methods according to heuristic methods and more precise methodological procedures during the selection. The authors present an innovative model for optimization of technical and economic parameters in the selection of manufacturing devices for industry 4.0.
Automated parameter estimation for biological models using Bayesian statistical model checking.
Hussain, Faraz; Langmead, Christopher J; Mi, Qi; Dutta-Moscato, Joyeeta; Vodovotz, Yoram; Jha, Sumit K
2015-01-01
Probabilistic models have gained widespread acceptance in the systems biology community as a useful way to represent complex biological systems. Such models are developed using existing knowledge of the structure and dynamics of the system, experimental observations, and inferences drawn from statistical analysis of empirical data. A key bottleneck in building such models is that some system variables cannot be measured experimentally. These variables are incorporated into the model as numerical parameters. Determining values of these parameters that justify existing experiments and provide reliable predictions when model simulations are performed is a key research problem. Using an agent-based model of the dynamics of acute inflammation, we demonstrate a novel parameter estimation algorithm by discovering the amount and schedule of doses of bacterial lipopolysaccharide that guarantee a set of observed clinical outcomes with high probability. We synthesized values of twenty-eight unknown parameters such that the parameterized model instantiated with these parameter values satisfies four specifications describing the dynamic behavior of the model. We have developed a new algorithmic technique for discovering parameters in complex stochastic models of biological systems given behavioral specifications written in a formal mathematical logic. Our algorithm uses Bayesian model checking, sequential hypothesis testing, and stochastic optimization to automatically synthesize parameters of probabilistic biological models.
Uncertainty analyses of the calibrated parameter values of a water quality model
Rode, M.; Suhr, U.; Lindenschmidt, K.-E.
2003-04-01
For river basin management water quality models are increasingly used for the analysis and evaluation of different management measures. However substantial uncertainties exist in parameter values depending on the available calibration data. In this paper an uncertainty analysis for a water quality model is presented, which considers the impact of available model calibration data and the variance of input variables. The investigation was conducted based on four extensive flowtime related longitudinal surveys in the River Elbe in the years 1996 to 1999 with varying discharges and seasonal conditions. For the model calculations the deterministic model QSIM of the BfG (Germany) was used. QSIM is a one dimensional water quality model and uses standard algorithms for hydrodynamics and phytoplankton dynamics in running waters, e.g. Michaelis Menten/Monod kinetics, which are used in a wide range of models. The multi-objective calibration of the model was carried out with the nonlinear parameter estimator PEST. The results show that for individual flow time related measuring surveys very good agreements between model calculation and measured values can be obtained. If these parameters are applied to deviating boundary conditions, substantial errors in model calculation can occur. These uncertainties can be decreased with an increased calibration database. More reliable model parameters can be identified, which supply reasonable results for broader boundary conditions. The extension of the application of the parameter set on a wider range of water quality conditions leads to a slight reduction of the model precision for the specific water quality situation. Moreover the investigations show that highly variable water quality variables like the algal biomass always allow a smaller forecast accuracy than variables with lower coefficients of variation like e.g. nitrate.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mateos, M-J; Brandan, M-E [Instituto de Fisica, Universidad Nacional Autonom de Mexico, Mexico, Distrito Federal (Mexico); Gastelum, A; Marquez, J [Centro de Ciencias Aplicadas y Desarrollo Tecnologico Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico, Distrito Federal (Mexico)
2015-06-15
Purpose: To evaluate the time evolution of texture parameters, based on the gray level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM), in subtracted images of 17 patients (10 malignant and 7 benign) subjected to contrast-enhanced digital mammography (CEDM). The goal is to determine the sensitivity of texture to iodine uptake at the lesion, and its correlation (or lack of) with mean-pixel-value (MPV). Methods: Acquisition of clinical images followed a single-energy CEDM protocol using Rh/Rh/48 kV plus external 0.5 cm Al from a Senographe DS unit. Prior to the iodine-based contrast medium (CM) administration a mask image was acquired; four CM images were obtained 1, 2, 3, and 5 minutes after CM injection. Temporal series were obtained by logarithmic subtraction of registered CM minus mask images.Regions of interest (ROI) for the lesion were drawn by a radiologist and the texture was analyzed. GLCM was evaluated at a 3 pixel distance, 0° angle, and 64 gray-levels. Pixels identified as registration errors were excluded from the computation. 17 texture parameters were chosen, classified according to similarity into 7 groups, and analyzed. Results: In all cases the texture parameters within a group have similar dynamic behavior. Two texture groups (associated to cluster and sum mean) show a strong correlation with MPV; their average correlation coefficient (ACC) is r{sup 2}=0.90. Other two groups (contrast, homogeneity) remain constant with time, that is, a low-sensitivity to CM uptake. Three groups (regularity, lacunarity and diagonal moment) are sensitive to CM uptake but less correlated with MPV; their ACC is r{sup 2}=0.78. Conclusion: This analysis has shown that, at least groups associated to regularity, lacunarity and diagonal moment offer dynamical information additional to the mean pixel value due to the presence of CM at the lesion. The next step will be the analysis in terms of the lesion pathology. Authors thank PAPIIT-IN105813 for support. Consejo Nacional de Ciencia Y
EMF 7 model comparisons: key relationships and parameters
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hickman, B.G.
1983-12-01
A simplified textbook model of aggregate demand and supply interprets the similarities and differences in the price and income responses of the various EMF 7 models to oil and policy shocks. The simplified model is a marriage of Hicks' classic IS-LM formulation of the Keynesian theory of effective demand with a rudimentary model of aggregate supply, combining a structural Phillips curve for wage determination and a markup theory of price determination. The reduced-form income equation from the fix-price IS-LM model is used to define an aggregate demand (AD) locus in P-Y space, showing alternative pairs of the implicit GNP deflator and real GNP which would simultaneously satisfy the saving-investment identity and the condition for money market equilibrium. An aggregate supply (AS) schedule is derived by a similar reduction of relations between output and labor demand, unemployment and wage inflation, and the wage-price-productivity nexus governing markup pricing. Given a particular econometric model it is possible to derive IS and LM curves algebraically. The resulting locuses would show alternative combinations of interest rate and real income which equilibrate real income identity on the IS side and the demand and supply of money on the LM side. By further substitution the reduced form fix-price income relation could be obtained for direct quantification of the AD locus. The AS schedule is obtainable by algebraic reduction of the structural supply side equations.
Identification of grid model parameters using synchrophasor measurements
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Boicea, Valentin; Albu, Mihaela [Politehnica University of Bucharest (Romania)
2012-07-01
Presently a critical element of the energy networks is represented by the active distribution grids, where generation intermittency and controllable loads contribute to a stochastic varability of the quantities characterizing the grid operation. The capability of controlling the electrical energy transfer is also limited by the incomplete knowledge of the detailed electrical model of each of the grid components. Asset management in distribution grids has to consider dynamic loads, while high loading of network sections might already have degraded some of the assets. Moreover, in case of functional microgrids, all elements need to be modelled accurately and an appropriate measurement layer enabling online control needs to be deployed. In this paper a method for online identification of the actual parameter values in grid electrical models is proposed. Laboratory results validating the proposed method are presented. (orig.)
Dynamic systems models new methods of parameter and state estimation
2016-01-01
This monograph is an exposition of a novel method for solving inverse problems, a method of parameter estimation for time series data collected from simulations of real experiments. These time series might be generated by measuring the dynamics of aircraft in flight, by the function of a hidden Markov model used in bioinformatics or speech recognition or when analyzing the dynamics of asset pricing provided by the nonlinear models of financial mathematics. Dynamic Systems Models demonstrates the use of algorithms based on polynomial approximation which have weaker requirements than already-popular iterative methods. Specifically, they do not require a first approximation of a root vector and they allow non-differentiable elements in the vector functions being approximated. The text covers all the points necessary for the understanding and use of polynomial approximation from the mathematical fundamentals, through algorithm development to the application of the method in, for instance, aeroplane flight dynamic...
Luminescence model with quantum impact parameter for low energies
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cruz G, H.S.; Michaelian, K.; Galindo U, S.; Martinez D, A.; Belmont M, E.
2000-01-01
The analytical model of induced light production in scintillator materials by energetic ions proposed by Michaelian and Menchaca (M-M) adjusts very well the luminescence substance data in a wide energy interval of the incident ions (10-100 MeV). However at low energies, that is, under to 10 MeV, the experimental deviations of the predictions of M-M model, show that the causes may be certain physical effects, all they important at low energies, which were not considered. We have modified lightly the M-M model using the basic fact that the Quantum mechanics gives to a different limit for the quantum impact parameter instead of the classic approximation. (Author)
Roldán, J. B.; Miranda, E.; González-Cordero, G.; García-Fernández, P.; Romero-Zaliz, R.; González-Rodelas, P.; Aguilera, A. M.; González, M. B.; Jiménez-Molinos, F.
2018-01-01
A multivariate analysis of the parameters that characterize the reset process in Resistive Random Access Memory (RRAM) has been performed. The different correlations obtained can help to shed light on the current components that contribute in the Low Resistance State (LRS) of the technology considered. In addition, a screening method for the Quantum Point Contact (QPC) current component is presented. For this purpose, the second derivative of the current has been obtained using a novel numerical method which allows determining the QPC model parameters. Once the procedure is completed, a whole Resistive Switching (RS) series of thousands of curves is studied by means of a genetic algorithm. The extracted QPC parameter distributions are characterized in depth to get information about the filamentary pathways associated with LRS in the low voltage conduction regime.
Tamura, Tetsuro; Kawaguchi, Masaharu; Kawai, Hidenori; Tao, Tao
2017-11-01
The connection between a meso-scale model and a micro-scale large eddy simulation (LES) is significant to simulate the micro-scale meteorological problem such as strong convective events due to the typhoon or the tornado using LES. In these problems the mean velocity profiles and the mean wind directions change with time according to the movement of the typhoons or tornadoes. Although, a fine grid micro-scale LES could not be connected to a coarse grid meso-scale WRF directly. In LES when the grid is suddenly refined at the interface of nested grids which is normal to the mean advection the resolved shear stresses decrease due to the interpolation errors and the delay of the generation of smaller scale turbulence that can be resolved on the finer mesh. For the estimation of wind gust disaster the peak wind acting on buildings and structures has to be correctly predicted. In the case of meteorological model the velocity fluctuations have a tendency of diffusive variation without the high frequency component due to the numerically filtering effects. In order to predict the peak value of wind velocity with good accuracy, this paper proposes a LES-based method for generating the higher frequency components of velocity and temperature fields obtained by meteorological model.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Borja Velazquez-Marti
2016-04-01
Full Text Available Bioethanol production from sugarcane represents an opportunity for urban-agricultural development in small communities of Ecuador. Despite the fact that the industry for bioethanol production from sugarcane in Brazil is fully developed, it is still considered expensive as a small rural business. In order to be able to reduce the costs of monitoring the production process, and avoid the application of expensive sensors, the aim of this research was modeling the kinetics of production of bioethanol based on direct measurements of Brix grades, instead of the concentration of alcohol, during the process of cane juice bio-fermentation with Saccharomyces cerevisiae. This avoids the application of expensive sensors that increase the investment costs. Fermentation experiments with three concentrations of yeast and two temperatures were carried out in a laboratory reactor. In each case Brix grades, amount of ethanol and alcoholic degree were measured. A mathematical model to predict the quality and production of bioethanol was developed from Brix grade measurements, obtaining an adjusted coefficient of determination of 0.97. The model was validated in a pilot plant.
Optimization of Experimental Model Parameter Identification for Energy Storage Systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rosario Morello
2013-09-01
Full Text Available The smart grid approach is envisioned to take advantage of all available modern technologies in transforming the current power system to provide benefits to all stakeholders in the fields of efficient energy utilisation and of wide integration of renewable sources. Energy storage systems could help to solve some issues that stem from renewable energy usage in terms of stabilizing the intermittent energy production, power quality and power peak mitigation. With the integration of energy storage systems into the smart grids, their accurate modeling becomes a necessity, in order to gain robust real-time control on the network, in terms of stability and energy supply forecasting. In this framework, this paper proposes a procedure to identify the values of the battery model parameters in order to best fit experimental data and integrate it, along with models of energy sources and electrical loads, in a complete framework which represents a real time smart grid management system. The proposed method is based on a hybrid optimisation technique, which makes combined use of a stochastic and a deterministic algorithm, with low computational burden and can therefore be repeated over time in order to account for parameter variations due to the battery’s age and usage.
Bayesian parameter estimation for stochastic models of biological cell migration
Dieterich, Peter; Preuss, Roland
2013-08-01
Cell migration plays an essential role under many physiological and patho-physiological conditions. It is of major importance during embryonic development and wound healing. In contrast, it also generates negative effects during inflammation processes, the transmigration of tumors or the formation of metastases. Thus, a reliable quantification and characterization of cell paths could give insight into the dynamics of these processes. Typically stochastic models are applied where parameters are extracted by fitting models to the so-called mean square displacement of the observed cell group. We show that this approach has several disadvantages and problems. Therefore, we propose a simple procedure directly relying on the positions of the cell's trajectory and the covariance matrix of the positions. It is shown that the covariance is identical with the spatial aging correlation function for the supposed linear Gaussian models of Brownian motion with drift and fractional Brownian motion. The technique is applied and illustrated with simulated data showing a reliable parameter estimation from single cell paths.
Model parameters for representative wetland plant functional groups
Williams, Amber S.; Kiniry, James R.; Mushet, David M.; Smith, Loren M.; McMurry, Scott T.; Attebury, Kelly; Lang, Megan; McCarty, Gregory W.; Shaffer, Jill A.; Effland, William R.; Johnson, Mari-Vaughn V.
2017-01-01
Wetlands provide a wide variety of ecosystem services including water quality remediation, biodiversity refugia, groundwater recharge, and floodwater storage. Realistic estimation of ecosystem service benefits associated with wetlands requires reasonable simulation of the hydrology of each site and realistic simulation of the upland and wetland plant growth cycles. Objectives of this study were to quantify leaf area index (LAI), light extinction coefficient (k), and plant nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K) concentrations in natural stands of representative plant species for some major plant functional groups in the United States. Functional groups in this study were based on these parameters and plant growth types to enable process-based modeling. We collected data at four locations representing some of the main wetland regions of the United States. At each site, we collected on-the-ground measurements of fraction of light intercepted, LAI, and dry matter within the 2013–2015 growing seasons. Maximum LAI and k variables showed noticeable variations among sites and years, while overall averages and functional group averages give useful estimates for multisite simulation modeling. Variation within each species gives an indication of what can be expected in such natural ecosystems. For P and K, the concentrations from highest to lowest were spikerush (Eleocharis macrostachya), reed canary grass (Phalaris arundinacea), smartweed (Polygonum spp.), cattail (Typha spp.), and hardstem bulrush (Schoenoplectus acutus). Spikerush had the highest N concentration, followed by smartweed, bulrush, reed canary grass, and then cattail. These parameters will be useful for the actual wetland species measured and for the wetland plant functional groups they represent. These parameters and the associated process-based models offer promise as valuable tools for evaluating environmental benefits of wetlands and for evaluating impacts of various agronomic practices in
Application of a free parameter model to plastic scintillation samples
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tarancon Sanz, Alex, E-mail: alex.tarancon@ub.edu [Departament de Quimica Analitica, Universitat de Barcelona, Diagonal 647, E-08028 Barcelona (Spain); Kossert, Karsten, E-mail: Karsten.Kossert@ptb.de [Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt (PTB), Bundesallee 100, 38116 Braunschweig (Germany)
2011-08-21
In liquid scintillation (LS) counting, the CIEMAT/NIST efficiency tracing method and the triple-to-double coincidence ratio (TDCR) method have proved their worth for reliable activity measurements of a number of radionuclides. In this paper, an extended approach to apply a free-parameter model to samples containing a mixture of solid plastic scintillation microspheres and radioactive aqueous solutions is presented. Several beta-emitting radionuclides were measured in a TDCR system at PTB. For the application of the free parameter model, the energy loss in the aqueous phase must be taken into account, since this portion of the particle energy does not contribute to the creation of scintillation light. The energy deposit in the aqueous phase is determined by means of Monte Carlo calculations applying the PENELOPE software package. To this end, great efforts were made to model the geometry of the samples. Finally, a new geometry parameter was defined, which was determined by means of a tracer radionuclide with known activity. This makes the analysis of experimental TDCR data of other radionuclides possible. The deviations between the determined activity concentrations and reference values were found to be lower than 3%. The outcome of this research work is also important for a better understanding of liquid scintillation counting. In particular the influence of (inverse) micelles, i.e. the aqueous spaces embedded in the organic scintillation cocktail, can be investigated. The new approach makes clear that it is important to take the energy loss in the aqueous phase into account. In particular for radionuclides emitting low-energy electrons (e.g. M-Auger electrons from {sup 125}I), this effect can be very important.
Microbial Communities Model Parameter Calculation for TSPA/SR
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
D. Jolley
2001-01-01
This calculation has several purposes. First the calculation reduces the information contained in ''Committed Materials in Repository Drifts'' (BSC 2001a) to useable parameters required as input to MING V1.O (CRWMS M and O 1998, CSCI 30018 V1.O) for calculation of the effects of potential in-drift microbial communities as part of the microbial communities model. The calculation is intended to replace the parameters found in Attachment II of the current In-Drift Microbial Communities Model revision (CRWMS M and O 2000c) with the exception of Section 11-5.3. Second, this calculation provides the information necessary to supercede the following DTN: M09909SPAMING1.003 and replace it with a new qualified dataset (see Table 6.2-1). The purpose of this calculation is to create the revised qualified parameter input for MING that will allow ΔG (Gibbs Free Energy) to be corrected for long-term changes to the temperature of the near-field environment. Calculated herein are the quadratic or second order regression relationships that are used in the energy limiting calculations to potential growth of microbial communities in the in-drift geochemical environment. Third, the calculation performs an impact review of a new DTN: M00012MAJIONIS.000 that is intended to replace the currently cited DTN: GS9809083 12322.008 for water chemistry data used in the current ''In-Drift Microbial Communities Model'' revision (CRWMS M and O 2000c). Finally, the calculation updates the material lifetimes reported on Table 32 in section 6.5.2.3 of the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' AMR (CRWMS M and O 2000c) based on the inputs reported in BSC (2001a). Changes include adding new specified materials and updating old materials information that has changed
Estimating Parameters in Physical Models through Bayesian Inversion: A Complete Example
Allmaras, Moritz
2013-02-07
All mathematical models of real-world phenomena contain parameters that need to be estimated from measurements, either for realistic predictions or simply to understand the characteristics of the model. Bayesian statistics provides a framework for parameter estimation in which uncertainties about models and measurements are translated into uncertainties in estimates of parameters. This paper provides a simple, step-by-step example-starting from a physical experiment and going through all of the mathematics-to explain the use of Bayesian techniques for estimating the coefficients of gravity and air friction in the equations describing a falling body. In the experiment we dropped an object from a known height and recorded the free fall using a video camera. The video recording was analyzed frame by frame to obtain the distance the body had fallen as a function of time, including measures of uncertainty in our data that we describe as probability densities. We explain the decisions behind the various choices of probability distributions and relate them to observed phenomena. Our measured data are then combined with a mathematical model of a falling body to obtain probability densities on the space of parameters we seek to estimate. We interpret these results and discuss sources of errors in our estimation procedure. © 2013 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.
Li, Jiangtao; Zhao, Zheng; Li, Longjie; He, Jiaxin; Li, Chenjie; Wang, Yifeng; Su, Can
2017-09-01
A transmission line transformer has potential advantages for nanosecond pulse generation including excellent frequency response and no leakage inductance. The wave propagation process in a secondary mode line is indispensable due to an obvious inside transient electromagnetic transition in this scenario. The equivalent model of the transmission line transformer is crucial for predicting the output waveform and evaluating the effects of magnetic cores on output performance. However, traditional lumped parameter models are not sufficient for nanosecond pulse generation due to the natural neglect of wave propagations in secondary mode lines based on a lumped parameter assumption. In this paper, a distributed parameter model of transmission line transformer was established to investigate wave propagation in the secondary mode line and its influential factors through theoretical analysis and experimental verification. The wave propagation discontinuity in the secondary mode line induced by magnetic cores is emphasized. Characteristics of the magnetic core under a nanosecond pulse were obtained by experiments. Distribution and formation of the secondary mode current were determined for revealing essential wave propagation processes in secondary mode lines. The output waveform and efficiency were found to be affected dramatically by wave propagation discontinuity in secondary mode lines induced by magnetic cores. The proposed distributed parameter model was proved more suitable for nanosecond pulse generation in aspects of secondary mode current, output efficiency, and output waveform. In depth, comprehension of underlying mechanisms and a broader view of the working principle of the transmission line transformer for nanosecond pulse generation can be obtained through this research.
Lumped-parameter fuel rod model for rapid thermal transients
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Perkins, K.R.; Ramshaw, J.D.
1975-07-01
The thermal behavior of fuel rods during simulated accident conditions is extremely sensitive to the heat transfer coefficient which is, in turn, very sensitive to the cladding surface temperature and the fluid conditions. The development of a semianalytical, lumped-parameter fuel rod model which is intended to provide accurate calculations, in a minimum amount of computer time, of the thermal response of fuel rods during a simulated loss-of-coolant accident is described. The results show good agreement with calculations from a comprehensive fuel-rod code (FRAP-T) currently in use at Aerojet Nuclear Company
Parameter Identification for Nonlinear Circuit Models of Power BAW Resonator
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
CONSTANTINESCU, F.
2011-02-01
Full Text Available The large signal operation of the bulk acoustic wave (BAW resonators is characterized by the amplitude-frequency effect and the intermodulation effect. The measurement of these effects, together with that of the small signal frequency characteristic, are used in this paper for the parameter identification of the nonlinear circuit models developed previously by authors. As the resonator has been connected to the measurement bench by wire bonding, the parasitic elements of this connection have been taken into account, being estimated solving some electrical and magnetic field problems.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gong, Wenyin; Cai, Zhihua
2013-01-01
Parameter identification of PEM (proton exchange membrane) fuel cell model is a very active area of research. Generally, it can be treated as a numerical optimization problem with complex nonlinear and multi-variable features. DE (differential evolution), which has been successfully used in various fields, is a simple yet efficient evolutionary algorithm for global numerical optimization. In this paper, with the objective of accelerating the process of parameter identification of PEM fuel cell models and reducing the necessary computational efforts, we firstly present a generic and simple ranking-based mutation operator for the DE algorithm. Then, the ranking-based mutation operator is incorporated into five highly-competitive DE variants to solve the PEM fuel cell model parameter identification problems. The main contributions of this work are the proposed ranking-based DE variants and their application to the parameter identification problems of PEM fuel cell models. Experiments have been conducted by using both the simulated voltage–current data and the data obtained from the literature to validate the performance of our approach. The results indicate that the ranking-based DE methods provide better results with respect to the solution quality, the convergence rate, and the success rate compared with their corresponding original DE methods. In addition, the voltage–current characteristics obtained by our approach are in good agreement with the original voltage–current curves in all cases. - Highlights: • A simple and generic ranking-based mutation operator is presented in this paper. • Several DE (differential evolution) variants are used to solve the parameter identification of PEMFC (proton exchange membrane fuel cells) model. • Results show that our method accelerates the process of parameter identification. • The V–I characteristics are in very good agreement with experimental data
Constitutive Model Of Graded Micro-Structure Obtained Via Strain Induced Phase Transformation
Ortwein, Rafał
The literature review has been divided into three main sub-chapters. The first one is concentrated on the general information about stainless steels and their applications. It is important to perform a general overview and get an idea where the results of the present thesis could be applied. Description of all the brands of stainless steels, their microstructures and properties are important, as similar characteristics can be found in the newly created functionally graded structures. The second sub-chapter is an overview of the most important constitutive models and the experimental results for materials that undergo plastic strain induced phase transformation. Finally, the last one is devoted to functionally graded microstructures obtained via strain induced martensitic transformation – the subject of particular importance for the present thesis. As a general note, the literature review is organized mainly in a chronological order. In some cases similar publications or publications of the same Authors were...
Obtaining Material Data for Heat Treatment Simulation of Casr Alloy Parts with Unified Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bellini, Anna; Thorborg, Jesper; Hattel, Jesper
2004-01-01
subjected to high temperature. In this paper a two-state variables unified model is applied in order to simulate creep behavior and time-dependent metallurgical changes. The fundamental assumption of the unified theory is that creep and viscoplasticity, which are both irreversible strains developed because...... study. The results obtained for the simulation of tensile tests and of creep tests are compared with experimental curves, showing a good agreement.......The objective of this work, which is part of the IDEAL (Integrated Development Routes for Optimized Cast Aluminium Components) project, financed by the EU in frame work 6 and born in collaboration with the automobile and foundry industries, is to simulate creep behavior of aluminum cast samples...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schulze-Halberg, Axel; Wang, Jie
2015-01-01
We obtain series solutions, the discrete spectrum, and supersymmetric partners for a quantum double-oscillator system. Its potential features a superposition of the one-parameter Mathews-Lakshmanan interaction and a one-parameter harmonic or inverse harmonic oscillator contribution. Furthermore, our results are transferred to a generalized Pöschl-Teller model that is isospectral to the double-oscillator system
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Schulze-Halberg, Axel, E-mail: axgeschu@iun.edu, E-mail: xbataxel@gmail.com [Department of Mathematics and Actuarial Science and Department of Physics, Indiana University Northwest, 3400 Broadway, Gary, Indiana 46408 (United States); Wang, Jie, E-mail: wangjie@iun.edu [Department of Computer Information Systems, Indiana University Northwest, 3400 Broadway, Gary, Indiana 46408 (United States)
2015-07-15
We obtain series solutions, the discrete spectrum, and supersymmetric partners for a quantum double-oscillator system. Its potential features a superposition of the one-parameter Mathews-Lakshmanan interaction and a one-parameter harmonic or inverse harmonic oscillator contribution. Furthermore, our results are transferred to a generalized Pöschl-Teller model that is isospectral to the double-oscillator system.
Empirically modelled Pc3 activity based on solar wind parameters
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
B. Heilig
2010-09-01
Full Text Available It is known that under certain solar wind (SW/interplanetary magnetic field (IMF conditions (e.g. high SW speed, low cone angle the occurrence of ground-level Pc3–4 pulsations is more likely. In this paper we demonstrate that in the event of anomalously low SW particle density, Pc3 activity is extremely low regardless of otherwise favourable SW speed and cone angle. We re-investigate the SW control of Pc3 pulsation activity through a statistical analysis and two empirical models with emphasis on the influence of SW density on Pc3 activity. We utilise SW and IMF measurements from the OMNI project and ground-based magnetometer measurements from the MM100 array to relate SW and IMF measurements to the occurrence of Pc3 activity. Multiple linear regression and artificial neural network models are used in iterative processes in order to identify sets of SW-based input parameters, which optimally reproduce a set of Pc3 activity data. The inclusion of SW density in the parameter set significantly improves the models. Not only the density itself, but other density related parameters, such as the dynamic pressure of the SW, or the standoff distance of the magnetopause work equally well in the model. The disappearance of Pc3s during low-density events can have at least four reasons according to the existing upstream wave theory: 1. Pausing the ion-cyclotron resonance that generates the upstream ultra low frequency waves in the absence of protons, 2. Weakening of the bow shock that implies less efficient reflection, 3. The SW becomes sub-Alfvénic and hence it is not able to sweep back the waves propagating upstream with the Alfvén-speed, and 4. The increase of the standoff distance of the magnetopause (and of the bow shock. Although the models cannot account for the lack of Pc3s during intervals when the SW density is extremely low, the resulting sets of optimal model inputs support the generation of mid latitude Pc3 activity predominantly through
Modelling of bio-optical parameters of open ocean waters
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vadim N. Pelevin
2001-12-01
Full Text Available An original method for estimating the concentration of chlorophyll pigments, absorption of yellow substance and absorption of suspended matter without pigments and yellow substance in detritus using spectral diffuse attenuation coefficient for downwelling irradiance and irradiance reflectance data has been applied to sea waters of different types in the open ocean (case 1. Using the effective numerical single parameter classification with the water type optical index m as a parameter over the whole range of the open ocean waters, the calculations have been carried out and the light absorption spectra of sea waters tabulated. These spectra are used to optimize the absorption models and thus to estimate the concentrations of the main admixtures in sea water. The value of m can be determined from direct measurements of the downward irradiance attenuation coefficient at 500 nm or calculated from remote sensing data using the regressions given in the article. The sea water composition can then be readily estimated from the tables given for any open ocean area if that one parameter m characterizing the basin is known.
Application of regression model on stream water quality parameters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Suleman, M.; Maqbool, F.; Malik, A.H.; Bhatti, Z.A.
2012-01-01
Statistical analysis was conducted to evaluate the effect of solid waste leachate from the open solid waste dumping site of Salhad on the stream water quality. Five sites were selected along the stream. Two sites were selected prior to mixing of leachate with the surface water. One was of leachate and other two sites were affected with leachate. Samples were analyzed for pH, water temperature, electrical conductivity (EC), total dissolved solids (TDS), Biological oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), dissolved oxygen (DO) and total bacterial load (TBL). In this study correlation coefficient r among different water quality parameters of various sites were calculated by using Pearson model and then average of each correlation between two parameters were also calculated, which shows TDS and EC and pH and BOD have significantly increasing r value, while temperature and TDS, temp and EC, DO and BL, DO and COD have decreasing r value. Single factor ANOVA at 5% level of significance was used which shows EC, TDS, TCL and COD were significantly differ among various sites. By the application of these two statistical approaches TDS and EC shows strongly positive correlation because the ions from the dissolved solids in water influence the ability of that water to conduct an electrical current. These two parameters significantly vary among 5 sites which are further confirmed by using linear regression. (author)
Models to estimate volume of individual trees by morphometry of crowns obtained with lidar
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Evandro Orfanó Figueiredo
2014-12-01
Full Text Available The volumetric estimate from digital scanning of the forests through the use of LIDAR increases the precision of forest management techniques in planning tropical forest logging operations. The use of this remote detection technology allows the incorporation of crown morphometric variables which are still little known and little used due to the difficulty of collecting field data for volume equations. The objective of this study was to build equations capable of estimating the stem volume of dominant and codominant individual trees from the crown's morphometry obtained by airborne LIDAR, considering two forest inventory situations: a with the collection of diameter at breast height (DBH, and crown morphometric variables obtained from LIDAR data and b using only the crown morphometry variables. For the selection of models the factors considered were: the correlation matrix of predictor variables and the combination of variables that generates the best results by statistical criteria Syx, Syx(% and Pressp, and that were homoscedastic and had a normal and independent distribution of errors. The influence analysis was performed for the best equations. The results for the statistical fit of the equations to the two situations allowed the selection of models with and without DBH, with R2aj.( % values of a 92.92 and b 79.44, Syx(% values of a 16.73 and b 27.47, and, Pressp criterion values of a 201.15 m6 and b 537.47 m6, respectively. Through morphometric variables it was possible to develop equations capable of accurately estimating the stem volume of dominant and codominant trees in tropical forests.
SDSS-II: Determination of shape and color parameter coefficients for SALT-II fit model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Dojcsak, L.; Marriner, J.; /Fermilab
2010-08-01
In this study we look at the SALT-II model of Type IA supernova analysis, which determines the distance moduli based on the known absolute standard candle magnitude of the Type IA supernovae. We take a look at the determination of the shape and color parameter coefficients, {alpha} and {beta} respectively, in the SALT-II model with the intrinsic error that is determined from the data. Using the SNANA software package provided for the analysis of Type IA supernovae, we use a standard Monte Carlo simulation to generate data with known parameters to use as a tool for analyzing the trends in the model based on certain assumptions about the intrinsic error. In order to find the best standard candle model, we try to minimize the residuals on the Hubble diagram by calculating the correct shape and color parameter coefficients. We can estimate the magnitude of the intrinsic errors required to obtain results with {chi}{sup 2}/degree of freedom = 1. We can use the simulation to estimate the amount of color smearing as indicated by the data for our model. We find that the color smearing model works as a general estimate of the color smearing, and that we are able to use the RMS distribution in the variables as one method of estimating the correct intrinsic errors needed by the data to obtain the correct results for {alpha} and {beta}. We then apply the resultant intrinsic error matrix to the real data and show our results.
Obtaining high-resolution stage forecasts by coupling large-scale hydrologic models with sensor data
Fries, K. J.; Kerkez, B.
2017-12-01
We investigate how "big" quantities of distributed sensor data can be coupled with a large-scale hydrologic model, in particular the National Water Model (NWM), to obtain hyper-resolution forecasts. The recent launch of the NWM provides a great example of how growing computational capacity is enabling a new generation of massive hydrologic models. While the NWM spans an unprecedented spatial extent, there remain many questions about how to improve forecast at the street-level, the resolution at which many stakeholders make critical decisions. Further, the NWM runs on supercomputers, so water managers who may have access to their own high-resolution measurements may not readily be able to assimilate them into the model. To that end, we ask the question: how can the advances of the large-scale NWM be coupled with new local observations to enable hyper-resolution hydrologic forecasts? A methodology is proposed whereby the flow forecasts of the NWM are directly mapped to high-resolution stream levels using Dynamical System Identification. We apply the methodology across a sensor network of 182 gages in Iowa. Of these sites, approximately one third have shown to perform well in high-resolution flood forecasting when coupled with the outputs of the NWM. The quality of these forecasts is characterized using Principal Component Analysis and Random Forests to identify where the NWM may benefit from new sources of local observations. We also discuss how this approach can help municipalities identify where they should place low-cost sensors to most benefit from flood forecasts of the NWM.
Artificial Neural Network model for the determination of GSM Rxlevel from atmospheric parameters
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Julia Ofure Eichie
2017-04-01
Full Text Available Accurate received signal level (Rxlevel values are useful for mobile telecommunication network planning. Rxlevel is affected by the dynamics of the atmosphere through which it propagates. Adequate knowledge of the prevailing atmospheric conditions in an environment is essential for proper network planning. However most of the existing GSM received signal determination model are function of distance between point of signal reception and transmitting site thus necessitating the development of a model that involve the use of atmospheric parameters in the determination of received GSM signal level. In this paper, a three stage approach was used in the development of the model using some atmospheric parameters such as atmospheric temperature, relative humidity and dew point. The selected and easily measurable atmospheric parameters were used as input parameters in developing two new models for computing the Rxlevel of GSM signal using a three-step approach. Data acquisition and pre-processing serves as the first stage and formulation of ANN design and the development of parametric model for the Rxlevel using ANN synaptic weights form the second stage of the proposed approach. The third stage involves the use of ANN weight and bias values, and network architecture in the development of the model equation. In evaluating the performance of the proposed models, network parameters were varied and the results obtained using mean squared error (MSE as performance measure showed the developed model with 33 neurons in the hidden layer and tansig activation, function in both the hidden and output layers as the optimal model with least MSE value of 0.056. Thus showing that the developed model has an acceptable accuracy value as demonstrated from comparison of results with actual measured values.
Tøndel, Kristin; Niederer, Steven A; Land, Sander; Smith, Nicolas P
2014-05-20
Striking a balance between the degree of model complexity and parameter identifiability, while still producing biologically feasible simulations using modelling is a major challenge in computational biology. While these two elements of model development are closely coupled, parameter fitting from measured data and analysis of model mechanisms have traditionally been performed separately and sequentially. This process produces potential mismatches between model and data complexities that can compromise the ability of computational frameworks to reveal mechanistic insights or predict new behaviour. In this study we address this issue by presenting a generic framework for combined model parameterisation, comparison of model alternatives and analysis of model mechanisms. The presented methodology is based on a combination of multivariate metamodelling (statistical approximation of the input-output relationships of deterministic models) and a systematic zooming into biologically feasible regions of the parameter space by iterative generation of new experimental designs and look-up of simulations in the proximity of the measured data. The parameter fitting pipeline includes an implicit sensitivity analysis and analysis of parameter identifiability, making it suitable for testing hypotheses for model reduction. Using this approach, under-constrained model parameters, as well as the coupling between parameters within the model are identified. The methodology is demonstrated by refitting the parameters of a published model of cardiac cellular mechanics using a combination of measured data and synthetic data from an alternative model of the same system. Using this approach, reduced models with simplified expressions for the tropomyosin/crossbridge kinetics were found by identification of model components that can be omitted without affecting the fit to the parameterising data. Our analysis revealed that model parameters could be constrained to a standard deviation of on
Wang, Qianqian; Zhao, Jing; Gong, Yong; Hao, Qun; Peng, Zhong
2017-11-20
A hybrid artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm inspired by the best-so-far solution and bacterial chemotaxis was introduced to optimize the parameters of the five-parameter bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) model. To verify the performance of the hybrid ABC algorithm, we measured BRDF of three kinds of samples and simulated the undetermined parameters of the five-parameter BRDF model using the hybrid ABC algorithm and the genetic algorithm, respectively. The experimental results demonstrate that the hybrid ABC algorithm outperforms the genetic algorithm in convergence speed, accuracy, and time efficiency under the same conditions.
A Bayesian approach for parameter estimation and prediction using a computationally intensive model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Higdon, Dave; McDonnell, Jordan D; Schunck, Nicolas; Sarich, Jason; Wild, Stefan M
2015-01-01
Bayesian methods have been successful in quantifying uncertainty in physics-based problems in parameter estimation and prediction. In these cases, physical measurements y are modeled as the best fit of a physics-based model η(θ), where θ denotes the uncertain, best input setting. Hence the statistical model is of the form y=η(θ)+ϵ, where ϵ accounts for measurement, and possibly other, error sources. When nonlinearity is present in η(⋅), the resulting posterior distribution for the unknown parameters in the Bayesian formulation is typically complex and nonstandard, requiring computationally demanding computational approaches such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to produce multivariate draws from the posterior. Although generally applicable, MCMC requires thousands (or even millions) of evaluations of the physics model η(⋅). This requirement is problematic if the model takes hours or days to evaluate. To overcome this computational bottleneck, we present an approach adapted from Bayesian model calibration. This approach combines output from an ensemble of computational model runs with physical measurements, within a statistical formulation, to carry out inference. A key component of this approach is a statistical response surface, or emulator, estimated from the ensemble of model runs. We demonstrate this approach with a case study in estimating parameters for a density functional theory model, using experimental mass/binding energy measurements from a collection of atomic nuclei. We also demonstrate how this approach produces uncertainties in predictions for recent mass measurements obtained at Argonne National Laboratory. (paper)
mr. A C++ library for the matching and running of the Standard Model parameters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kniehl, Bernd A.; Veretin, Oleg L.; Pikelner, Andrey F.; Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, Dubna
2016-01-01
We present the C++ program library mr that allows us to reliably calculate the values of the running parameters in the Standard Model at high energy scales. The initial conditions are obtained by relating the running parameters in the MS renormalization scheme to observables at lower energies with full two-loop precision. The evolution is then performed in accordance with the renormalization group equations with full three-loop precision. Pure QCD corrections to the matching and running are included through four loops. We also provide a Mathematica interface for this program library.
mr. A C++ library for the matching and running of the Standard Model parameters
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kniehl, Bernd A.; Veretin, Oleg L. [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). II. Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik; Pikelner, Andrey F. [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). II. Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik; Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, Dubna (Russian Federation). Bogoliubov Lab. of Theoretical Physics
2016-01-15
We present the C++ program library mr that allows us to reliably calculate the values of the running parameters in the Standard Model at high energy scales. The initial conditions are obtained by relating the running parameters in the MS renormalization scheme to observables at lower energies with full two-loop precision. The evolution is then performed in accordance with the renormalization group equations with full three-loop precision. Pure QCD corrections to the matching and running are included through four loops. We also provide a Mathematica interface for this program library.
Bayesian Inference on the Memory Parameter for Gamma-Modulated Regression Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Plinio Andrade
2015-09-01
Full Text Available In this work, we propose a Bayesian methodology to make inferences for the memory parameter and other characteristics under non-standard assumptions for a class of stochastic processes. This class generalizes the Gamma-modulated process, with trajectories that exhibit long memory behavior, as well as decreasing variability as time increases. Different values of the memory parameter influence the speed of this decrease, making this heteroscedastic model very flexible. Its properties are used to implement an approximate Bayesian computation and MCMC scheme to obtain posterior estimates. We test and validate our method through simulations and real data from the big earthquake that occurred in 2010 in Chile.
Gabrienko, Anton A; Ewing, Andrew V; Chibiryaev, Andrey M; Agafontsev, Alexander M; Dubkov, Konstantin A; Kazarian, Sergei G
2016-03-07
This work reports new physical insights of the thermodynamic parameters and mechanisms of possible interactions occurring in polymers subjected to high-pressure CO2. ATR-FTIR spectroscopy has been used in situ to determine the thermodynamic parameters of the intermolecular interactions between CO2 and different functional groups of the polymers capable of specific interactions with sorbed CO2 molecules. Based on the measured ATR-FTIR spectra of the polymer samples subjected to high-pressure CO2 (30 bar) at different temperatures (300-340 K), it was possible to characterize polymer-polymer and CO2-polymer interactions. Particularly, the enthalpy and entropy of the formation of the specific non-covalent complexes between CO2 and the hydroxy (-OH), carbonyl (C[double bond, length as m-dash]O) and hydroxyimino ([double bond, length as m-dash]N-OH) functional groups of the polymer samples have been measured. Furthermore, the obtained spectroscopic results have provided an opportunity for the structure of these complexes to be proposed. An interesting phenomenon regarding the behavior of CO2/polymer systems has also been observed. It has been found that only for the polyketone, the value of enthalpy was negative indicating an exothermic process during the formation of the CO2-polymer non-covalent complexes. Conversely, for the polyoxime and polyalcohol samples there is a positive enthalpy determined. This is a result of the initial polymer-polymer interactions requiring more energy to break than is released during the formation of the CO2-polymer complex. The effect of increasing temperature to facilitate the breaking of the polymer-polymer interactions has also been observed. Hence, a mechanism for the formation of CO2-polymer complexes was suggested based on these results, which occurs via a two-step process: (1) the breaking of the existing polymer-polymer interactions followed by (2) the formation of new CO2-polymer non-covalent interactions.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Christensen, L.H.; Pind, N.
1982-01-01
A matrix-independent fundamental parameter-based calibration model for an energy-dispersive X-ray fluorescence spectrometer has been developed. This model, which is part of a fundamental parameter approach quantification method, accounts for both the excitation and detection probability. For each secondary target a number of relative calibration constants are calculated on the basis of knowledge of the irradiation geometry, the detector specifications, and tabulated fundamental physical parameters. The absolute calibration of the spectrometer is performed by measuring one pure element standard per secondary target. For sample systems where all elements can be analyzed by means of the same secondary target the absolute calibration constant can be determined during the iterative solution of the basic equation. Calculated and experimentally determined relative calibration constants agree to within 5-10% of each other and so do the results obtained from the analysis of an NBS certified alloy using the two sets of constants. (orig.)
Convergence of surface diffusion parameters with model crystal size
Cohen, Jennifer M.; Voter, Arthur F.
1994-07-01
A study of the variation in the calculated quantities for adatom diffusion with respect to the size of the model crystal is presented. The reported quantities include surface diffusion barrier heights, pre-exponential factors, and dynamical correction factors. Embedded atom method (EAM) potentials were used throughout this effort. Both the layer size and the depth of the crystal were found to influence the values of the Arrhenius factors significantly. In particular, exchange type mechanisms required a significantly larger model than standard hopping mechanisms to determine adatom diffusion barriers of equivalent accuracy. The dynamical events that govern the corrections to transition state theory (TST) did not appear to be as sensitive to crystal depth. Suitable criteria for the convergence of the diffusion parameters with regard to the rate properties are illustrated.
Building X-ray pulsar timing model without the use of radio parameters
Sun, Hai-feng; Sun, Xiong; Fang, Hai-yan; Shen, Li-rong; Cong, Shao-peng; Liu, Yan-ming; Li, Xiao-ping; Bao, Wei-min
2018-02-01
This paper develops a timing solution for the X-ray pulsar timing model without the use of the initial radio model parameters. First, we address the problem of phase ambiguities for the pre-fit residuals in the construction of pulsar timing model. To improve the estimation accuracy of the pulse time of arrival (TOA), we have deduced the general form of test statistics in Fourier transform, and discussed their estimation performances. Meanwhile, a fast maximum likelihood (FML) technique is presented to estimate the pulse TOA, which outperforms cross correlation (CC) estimator and exhibits a performance comparable with maximum likelihood (ML) estimator in spite of a much less reduced computational complexity. Depending on the strategy of the difference minimum of pre-fit residuals, we present an effective forced phase-connected technique to achieve initial model parameters. Then, we use the observations with the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) and X-ray pulsar navigation-I (XPNAV-1) satellites for experimental studies, and discuss main differences for the root mean square (RMS) residuals calculated with the X-ray and radio ephemerides. Finally, a chi-square value (CSV) of pulse profiles is presented as a complementary indicator to the RMS residuals for evaluating the model parameters. The results show that the proposed timing solution is valid and effective, and the obtained model parameters can be a reasonable alternative to the radio ephemeris.
A distributed parameter wire model for transient electrical discharges
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Maier, W.B. II; Kadish, A.; Sutherland, C.D.; Robiscoe, R.T.
1990-01-01
A model for freely propagating transient electrical discharges, such as lightning and punch-through arcs, is developed in this paper. We describe the electromagnetic fields by Maxwell's equations and we represent the interaction of electric fields with the medium to produce current by ∂J/∂t=ω 2 (E-E*J)/4π, where ω and E* are parameters characteristic of the medium, J≡current density, and J≡J/|J|. We illustrate the properties of this model for small-diameter, guided, cylindrically symmetric discharges. Analytic, numerical, and approximate solutions are given for special cases. The model describes, in a new and comprehensive fashion, certain macroscopic discharge properties, such as threshold behavior, quenching and reignition, path tortuosity, discharge termination with nonzero charge density remaining along the discharge path, and other experimentally observed discharge phenomena. Fields, current densities, and charge densities are quantitatively determined from given boundary and initial conditions. We suggest that many macroscopic discharge properties are properly explained by the model as electromagnetic phenomena, and we discuss extensions of the model to include chemistry, principally ionization and recombination
Hamiltonian structure of reduced fluid models for plasmas obtained from a kinetic description
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Guillebon, L. de; Chandre, C.
2012-01-01
We consider the Hamiltonian structure of reduced fluid models obtained from a kinetic description of collisionless plasmas by Vlasov–Maxwell equations. We investigate the possibility of finding Poisson subalgebras associated with fluid models starting from the Vlasov–Maxwell Poisson algebra. In this way, we show that the only possible Poisson subalgebra involves the moments of zeroth and first order of the Vlasov distribution, meaning the fluid density and the fluid velocity. We find that the bracket derived in [B.A. Shadwick, G.M. Tarkenton, E.H. Esarey, Phys. Rev. Lett. 93 (2004) 175002] which involves moments of order 2 is not a Poisson bracket since it does not satisfy the Jacobi identity. -- Highlights: ► We investigate fluid reductions from the Vlasov–Maxwell Poisson bracket. ► The only Poisson subalgebra involves fluid density and fluid velocity. ► The bracket derived in [B.A. Shadwick, G.M. Tarkenton, E.H. Esarey, Phys. Rev. Lett. 93 (2004) 175002] is not Hamiltonian.
Errors and parameter estimation in precipitation-runoff modeling: 1. Theory
Troutman, Brent M.
1985-01-01
Errors in complex conceptual precipitation-runoff models may be analyzed by placing them into a statistical framework. This amounts to treating the errors as random variables and defining the probabilistic structure of the errors. By using such a framework, a large array of techniques, many of which have been presented in the statistical literature, becomes available to the modeler for quantifying and analyzing the various sources of error. A number of these techniques are reviewed in this paper, with special attention to the peculiarities of hydrologic models. Known methodologies for parameter estimation (calibration) are particularly applicable for obtaining physically meaningful estimates and for explaining how bias in runoff prediction caused by model error and input error may contribute to bias in parameter estimation.
Standard model parameters and the search for new physics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Marciano, W.J.
1988-04-01
In these lectures, my aim is to present an up-to-date status report on the standard model and some key tests of electroweak unification. Within that context, I also discuss how and where hints of new physics may emerge. To accomplish those goals, I have organized my presentation as follows: I discuss the standard model parameters with particular emphasis on the gauge coupling constants and vector boson masses. Examples of new physics appendages are also briefly commented on. In addition, because these lectures are intended for students and thus somewhat pedagogical, I have included an appendix on dimensional regularization and a simple computational example that employs that technique. Next, I focus on weak charged current phenomenology. Precision tests of the standard model are described and up-to-date values for the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa (CKM) mixing matrix parameters are presented. Constraints implied by those tests for a 4th generation, supersymmetry, extra Z/prime/ bosons, and compositeness are also discussed. I discuss weak neutral current phenomenology and the extraction of sin/sup 2/ /theta//sub W/ from experiment. The results presented there are based on a recently completed global analysis of all existing data. I have chosen to concentrate that discussion on radiative corrections, the effect of a heavy top quark mass, and implications for grand unified theories (GUTS). The potential for further experimental progress is also commented on. I depart from the narrowest version of the standard model and discuss effects of neutrino masses and mixings. I have chosen to concentrate on oscillations, the Mikheyev-Smirnov- Wolfenstein (MSW) effect, and electromagnetic properties of neutrinos. On the latter topic, I will describe some recent work on resonant spin-flavor precession. Finally, I conclude with a prospectus on hopes for the future. 76 refs
New Values of Cross-Talk Parameters for Twisted Pair Model
Milos Kozak; Lukas Cepa; Jiri Vodrazka
2010-01-01
Near-end Crosstalk (NEXT) and Far-end Crosstalk (FEXT) of unshielded twisted pair (UTP) cable are the main factors limiting the information capacity in data transmission. Crosstalk depends mostly on the frequency. Frequency dependent transfer functions and crosstalk attenuation may be obtained by measurement, but for the analytical description of the transmission channel's parameters is useful to define functions modelling the crosstalk. The paper describes the measuri...
A Modelling Method of Bolt Joints Based on Basic Characteristic Parameters of Joint Surfaces
Yuansheng, Li; Guangpeng, Zhang; Zhen, Zhang; Ping, Wang
2018-02-01
Bolt joints are common in machine tools and have a direct impact on the overall performance of the tools. Therefore, the understanding of bolt joint characteristics is essential for improving machine design and assembly. Firstly, According to the experimental data obtained from the experiment, the stiffness curve formula was fitted. Secondly, a finite element model of unit bolt joints such as bolt flange joints, bolt head joints, and thread joints was constructed, and lastly the stiffness parameters of joint surfaces were implemented in the model by the secondary development of ABAQUS. The finite element model of the bolt joint established by this method can simulate the contact state very well.
Rosenblatt, Marcus; Timmer, Jens; Kaschek, Daniel
2016-01-01
Ordinary differential equation models have become a wide-spread approach to analyze dynamical systems and understand underlying mechanisms. Model parameters are often unknown and have to be estimated from experimental data, e.g., by maximum-likelihood estimation. In particular, models of biological systems contain a large number of parameters. To reduce the dimensionality of the parameter space, steady-state information is incorporated in the parameter estimation process. For non-linear models, analytical steady-state calculation typically leads to higher-order polynomial equations for which no closed-form solutions can be obtained. This can be circumvented by solving the steady-state equations for kinetic parameters, which results in a linear equation system with comparatively simple solutions. At the same time multiplicity of steady-state solutions is avoided, which otherwise is problematic for optimization. When solved for kinetic parameters, however, steady-state constraints tend to become negative for particular model specifications, thus, generating new types of optimization problems. Here, we present an algorithm based on graph theory that derives non-negative, analytical steady-state expressions by stepwise removal of cyclic dependencies between dynamical variables. The algorithm avoids multiple steady-state solutions by construction. We show that our method is applicable to most common classes of biochemical reaction networks containing inhibition terms, mass-action and Hill-type kinetic equations. Comparing the performance of parameter estimation for different analytical and numerical methods of incorporating steady-state information, we show that our approach is especially well-tailored to guarantee a high success rate of optimization.
An Investigation on the Sensitivity of the Parameters of Urban Flood Model
M, A. B.; Lohani, B.; Jain, A.
2015-12-01
Global climatic change has triggered weather patterns which lead to heavy and sudden rainfall in different parts of world. The impact of heavy rainfall is severe especially on urban areas in the form of urban flooding. In order to understand the effect of heavy rainfall induced flooding, it is necessary to model the entire flooding scenario more accurately, which is now becoming possible with the availability of high resolution airborne LiDAR data and other real time observations. However, there is not much understanding on the optimal use of these data and on the effect of other parameters on the performance of the flood model. This study aims at developing understanding on these issues. In view of the above discussion, the aim of this study is to (i) understand that how the use of high resolution LiDAR data improves the performance of urban flood model, and (ii) understand the sensitivity of various hydrological parameters on urban flood modelling. In this study, modelling of flooding in urban areas due to heavy rainfall is carried out considering Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur, India as the study site. The existing model MIKE FLOOD, which is accepted by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), is used along with the high resolution airborne LiDAR data. Once the model is setup it is made to run by changing the parameters such as resolution of Digital Surface Model (DSM), manning's roughness, initial losses, catchment description, concentration time, runoff reduction factor. In order to realize this, the results obtained from the model are compared with the field observations. The parametric study carried out in this work demonstrates that the selection of catchment description plays a very important role in urban flood modelling. Results also show the significant impact of resolution of DSM, initial losses and concentration time on urban flood model. This study will help in understanding the effect of various parameters that should be part of a
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Geslot, Benoit; Pepino, Alexandra; Blaise, Patrick; Mellier, Frederic [CEA, DEN, DER/SPEx, Cadarache, F-13108 St Paul Lez Durance (France); Lecouey, Jean-Luc [LPC Caen, ENSICAEN, Universite de Caen, CNRS/IN2P3, 6 Bd. Marechal Juin 14050 Caen cedex (France); Carta, Mario [ENEA, UTFISST-REANUC, C.R. Casaccia, S.P.040 via Anguillarese 301, 00123 S. Maria Di Galeria, Roma (Italy); Kochetkov, Anatoly; Vittiglio, Guido [SCK.CEN, Belgian Nuclear Research Centre, Boeretang 200, BE-2400, Mol (Belgium); Billebaud, Annick [LPSC, CNRS, IN2P3/UJF/INPG, 53 Avenue des Martyrs, 38026 Grenoble cedex (France)
2015-07-01
A pile noise measurement campaign has been conducted by the CEA in the VENUS-F reactor (SCK-CEN, Mol Belgium) in April 2011 in the reference critical configuration of the GUINEVERE experimental program. The experimental setup made it possible to estimate the core kinetic parameters: the prompt neutron decay constant, the delayed neutron fraction and the generation time. A precise assessment of these constants is of prime importance. In particular, the effective delayed neutron fraction is used to normalize and compare calculated reactivities of different subcritical configurations, obtained by modifying either the core layout or the control rods position, with experimental ones deduced from the analysis of measurements. This paper presents results obtained with a CEA-developed time stamping acquisition system. Data were analyzed using Rossi-α and Feynman-α methods. Results were normalized to reactor power using a calibrated fission chamber with a deposit of Np-237. Calculated factors were necessary to the analysis: the Diven factor was computed by the ENEA (Italy) and the power calibration factor by the CNRS/IN2P3/LPC Caen. Results deduced with both methods are consistent with respect to calculated quantities. Recommended values are given by the Rossi-α estimator, that was found to be the most robust. The neutron generation time was found equal to 0.438 ± 0.009 μs and the effective delayed neutron fraction is 765 ± 8 pcm. Discrepancies with the calculated value (722 pcm, calculation from ENEA) are satisfactory: -5.6% for the Rossi-α estimate and -2.7% for the Feynman-α estimate. (authors)
Sun, Y.; Hou, Z.; Huang, M.; Tian, F.; Leung, L. Ruby
2013-12-01
This study demonstrates the possibility of inverting hydrologic parameters using surface flux and runoff observations in version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4). Previous studies showed that surface flux and runoff calculations are sensitive to major hydrologic parameters in CLM4 over different watersheds, and illustrated the necessity and possibility of parameter calibration. Both deterministic least-square fitting and stochastic Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-Bayesian inversion approaches are evaluated by applying them to CLM4 at selected sites with different climate and soil conditions. The unknowns to be estimated include surface and subsurface runoff generation parameters and vadose zone soil water parameters. We find that using model parameters calibrated by the sampling-based stochastic inversion approaches provides significant improvements in the model simulations compared to using default CLM4 parameter values, and that as more information comes in, the predictive intervals (ranges of posterior distributions) of the calibrated parameters become narrower. In general, parameters that are identified to be significant through sensitivity analyses and statistical tests are better calibrated than those with weak or nonlinear impacts on flux or runoff observations. Temporal resolution of observations has larger impacts on the results of inverse modeling using heat flux data than runoff data. Soil and vegetation cover have important impacts on parameter sensitivities, leading to different patterns of posterior distributions of parameters at different sites. Overall, the MCMC-Bayesian inversion approach effectively and reliably improves the simulation of CLM under different climates and environmental conditions. Bayesian model averaging of the posterior estimates with different reference acceptance probabilities can smooth the posterior distribution and provide more reliable parameter estimates, but at the expense of wider uncertainty bounds.
Estimation of k-ε parameters using surrogate models and jet-in-crossflow data
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lefantzi, Sophia [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Ray, Jaideep [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Arunajatesan, Srinivasan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Dechant, Lawrence [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)
2014-11-01
We demonstrate a Bayesian method that can be used to calibrate computationally expensive 3D RANS (Reynolds Av- eraged Navier Stokes) models with complex response surfaces. Such calibrations, conditioned on experimental data, can yield turbulence model parameters as probability density functions (PDF), concisely capturing the uncertainty in the parameter estimates. Methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimate the PDF by sampling, with each sample requiring a run of the RANS model. Consequently a quick-running surrogate is used instead to the RANS simulator. The surrogate can be very difficult to design if the model's response i.e., the dependence of the calibration variable (the observable) on the parameter being estimated is complex. We show how the training data used to construct the surrogate can be employed to isolate a promising and physically realistic part of the parameter space, within which the response is well-behaved and easily modeled. We design a classifier, based on treed linear models, to model the "well-behaved region". This classifier serves as a prior in a Bayesian calibration study aimed at estimating 3 k - ε parameters ( C _{μ}, C _{ε2} , C _{ε1} ) from experimental data of a transonic jet-in-crossflow interaction. The robustness of the calibration is investigated by checking its predictions of variables not included in the cal- ibration data. We also check the limit of applicability of the calibration by testing at off-calibration flow regimes. We find that calibration yield turbulence model parameters which predict the flowfield far better than when the nomi- nal values of the parameters are used. Substantial improvements are still obtained when we use the calibrated RANS model to predict jet-in-crossflow at Mach numbers and jet strengths quite different from those used to generate the ex- perimental (calibration) data. Thus the primary reason for poor predictive skill of RANS, when using nominal
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shirmohammadi Adel
2006-10-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Quantification of in-vivo biomolecule mass transport and reaction rate parameters from experimental data obtained by Fluorescence Recovery after Photobleaching (FRAP is becoming more important. Methods and results The Osborne-Moré extended version of the Levenberg-Marquardt optimization algorithm was coupled with the experimental data obtained by the Fluorescence Recovery after Photobleaching (FRAP protocol, and the numerical solution of a set of two partial differential equations governing macromolecule mass transport and reaction in living cells, to inversely estimate optimized values of the molecular diffusion coefficient and binding rate parameters of GFP-tagged glucocorticoid receptor. The results indicate that the FRAP protocol provides enough information to estimate one parameter uniquely using a nonlinear optimization technique. Coupling FRAP experimental data with the inverse modeling strategy, one can also uniquely estimate the individual values of the binding rate coefficients if the molecular diffusion coefficient is known. One can also simultaneously estimate the dissociation rate parameter and molecular diffusion coefficient given the pseudo-association rate parameter is known. However, the protocol provides insufficient information for unique simultaneous estimation of three parameters (diffusion coefficient and binding rate parameters owing to the high intercorrelation between the molecular diffusion coefficient and pseudo-association rate parameter. Attempts to estimate macromolecule mass transport and binding rate parameters simultaneously from FRAP data result in misleading conclusions regarding concentrations of free macromolecule and bound complex inside the cell, average binding time per vacant site, average time for diffusion of macromolecules from one site to the next, and slow or rapid mobility of biomolecules in cells. Conclusion To obtain unique values for molecular diffusion coefficient and
Leitão, João P.; Moy de Vitry, Matthew; Scheidegger, Andreas; Rieckermann, Jörg
2016-04-01
Precise and detailed digital elevation models (DEMs) are essential to accurately predict overland flow in urban areas. Unfortunately, traditional sources of DEM, such as airplane light detection and ranging (lidar) DEMs and point and contour maps, remain a bottleneck for detailed and reliable overland flow models, because the resulting DEMs are too coarse to provide DEMs of sufficient detail to inform urban overland flows. Interestingly, technological developments of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) suggest that they have matured enough to be a competitive alternative to satellites or airplanes. However, this has not been tested so far. In this study we therefore evaluated whether DEMs generated from UAV imagery are suitable for urban drainage overland flow modelling. Specifically, 14 UAV flights were conducted to assess the influence of four different flight parameters on the quality of generated DEMs: (i) flight altitude, (ii) image overlapping, (iii) camera pitch, and (iv) weather conditions. In addition, we compared the best-quality UAV DEM to a conventional lidar-based DEM. To evaluate both the quality of the UAV DEMs and the comparison to lidar-based DEMs, we performed regression analysis on several qualitative and quantitative metrics, such as elevation accuracy, quality of object representation (e.g. buildings, walls and trees) in the DEM, which were specifically tailored to assess overland flow modelling performance, using the flight parameters as explanatory variables. Our results suggested that, first, as expected, flight altitude influenced the DEM quality most, where lower flights produce better DEMs; in a similar fashion, overcast weather conditions are preferable, but weather conditions and other factors influence DEM quality much less. Second, we found that for urban overland flow modelling, the UAV DEMs performed competitively in comparison to a traditional lidar-based DEM. An important advantage of using UAVs to generate DEMs in urban areas is
Xing, X.; Yuan, Z.; Chen, L. F.; Yu, X. Y.; Xiao, L.
2018-04-01
The stability control is one of the major technical difficulties in the field of highway subgrade construction engineering. Building deformation model is a crucial step for InSAR time series deformation monitoring. Most of the InSAR deformation models for deformation monitoring are pure empirical mathematical models, without considering the physical mechanism of the monitored object. In this study, we take rheology into consideration, inducing rheological parameters into traditional InSAR deformation models. To assess the feasibility and accuracy for our new model, both simulation and real deformation data over Lungui highway (a typical highway built on soft clay subgrade in Guangdong province, China) are investigated with TerraSAR-X satellite imagery. In order to solve the unknows of the non-linear rheological model, three algorithms: Gauss-Newton (GN), Levenberg-Marquarat (LM), and Genetic Algorithm (GA), are utilized and compared to estimate the unknown parameters. Considering both the calculation efficiency and accuracy, GA is chosen as the final choice for the new model in our case study. Preliminary real data experiment is conducted with use of 17 TerraSAR-X Stripmap images (with a 3-m resolution). With the new deformation model and GA aforementioned, the unknown rheological parameters over all the high coherence points are obtained and the LOS deformation (the low-pass component) sequences are generated.
López, Iván; Borzacconi, Liliana
2010-10-01
A model based on the work of Angelidaki et al. (1993) was applied to simulate the anaerobic biodegradation of ruminal contents. In this study, two fractions of solids with different biodegradation rates were considered. A first-order kinetic was used for the easily biodegradable fraction and a kinetic expression that is function of the extracellular enzyme concentration was used for the slowly biodegradable fraction. Batch experiments were performed to obtain an accumulated methane curve that was then used to obtain the model parameters. For this determination, a methodology derived from the "multiple-shooting" method was successfully used. Monte Carlo simulations allowed a confidence range to be obtained for each parameter. Simulations of a continuous reactor were performed using the optimal set of model parameters. The final steady-states were determined as functions of the operational conditions (solids load and residence time). The simulations showed that methane flow peaked at a flow rate of 0.5-0.8 Nm(3)/d/m(reactor)(3) at a residence time of 10-20 days. Simulations allow the adequate selection of operating conditions of a continuous reactor. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Performance Analysis of Different NeQuick Ionospheric Model Parameters
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
WANG Ningbo
2017-04-01
Full Text Available Galileo adopts NeQuick model for single-frequency ionospheric delay corrections. For the standard operation of Galileo, NeQuick model is driven by the effective ionization level parameter Az instead of the solar activity level index, and the three broadcast ionospheric coefficients are determined by a second-polynomial through fitting the Az values estimated from globally distributed Galileo Sensor Stations (GSS. In this study, the processing strategies for the estimation of NeQuick ionospheric coefficients are discussed and the characteristics of the NeQuick coefficients are also analyzed. The accuracy of Global Position System (GPS broadcast Klobuchar, original NeQuick2 and fitted NeQuickC as well as Galileo broadcast NeQuickG models is evaluated over the continental and oceanic regions, respectively, in comparison with the ionospheric total electron content (TEC provided by global ionospheric maps (GIM, GPS test stations and JASON-2 altimeter. The results show that NeQuickG can mitigate ionospheric delay by 54.2%~65.8% on a global scale, and NeQuickC can correct for 71.1%~74.2% of the ionospheric delay. NeQuick2 performs at the same level with NeQuickG, which is a bit better than that of GPS broadcast Klobuchar model.
Exploring parameter constraints on quintessential dark energy: The exponential model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bozek, Brandon; Abrahamse, Augusta; Albrecht, Andreas; Barnard, Michael
2008-01-01
We present an analysis of a scalar field model of dark energy with an exponential potential using the Dark Energy Task Force (DETF) simulated data models. Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling techniques we examine the ability of each simulated data set to constrain the parameter space of the exponential potential for data sets based on a cosmological constant and a specific exponential scalar field model. We compare our results with the constraining power calculated by the DETF using their 'w 0 -w a ' parametrization of the dark energy. We find that respective increases in constraining power from one stage to the next produced by our analysis give results consistent with DETF results. To further investigate the potential impact of future experiments, we also generate simulated data for an exponential model background cosmology which cannot be distinguished from a cosmological constant at DETF 'Stage 2', and show that for this cosmology good DETF Stage 4 data would exclude a cosmological constant by better than 3σ
Saputro, D. R. S.; Amalia, F.; Widyaningsih, P.; Affan, R. C.
2018-05-01
Bayesian method is a method that can be used to estimate the parameters of multivariate multiple regression model. Bayesian method has two distributions, there are prior and posterior distributions. Posterior distribution is influenced by the selection of prior distribution. Jeffreys’ prior distribution is a kind of Non-informative prior distribution. This prior is used when the information about parameter not available. Non-informative Jeffreys’ prior distribution is combined with the sample information resulting the posterior distribution. Posterior distribution is used to estimate the parameter. The purposes of this research is to estimate the parameters of multivariate regression model using Bayesian method with Non-informative Jeffreys’ prior distribution. Based on the results and discussion, parameter estimation of β and Σ which were obtained from expected value of random variable of marginal posterior distribution function. The marginal posterior distributions for β and Σ are multivariate normal and inverse Wishart. However, in calculation of the expected value involving integral of a function which difficult to determine the value. Therefore, approach is needed by generating of random samples according to the posterior distribution characteristics of each parameter using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Gibbs sampling algorithm.
Modeling and parameters identification of 2-keto-L-gulonic acid fed-batch fermentation.
Wang, Tao; Sun, Jibin; Yuan, Jingqi
2015-04-01
This article presents a modeling approach for industrial 2-keto-L-gulonic acid (2-KGA) fed-batch fermentation by the mixed culture of Ketogulonicigenium vulgare (K. vulgare) and Bacillus megaterium (B. megaterium). A macrokinetic model of K. vulgare is constructed based on the simplified metabolic pathways. The reaction rates obtained from the macrokinetic model are then coupled into a bioreactor model such that the relationship between substrate feeding rates and the main state variables, e.g., the concentrations of the biomass, substrate and product, is constructed. A differential evolution algorithm using the Lozi map as the random number generator is utilized to perform the model parameters identification, with the industrial data of 2-KGA fed-batch fermentation. Validation results demonstrate that the model simulations of substrate and product concentrations are well in coincidence with the measurements. Furthermore, the model simulations of biomass concentrations reflect principally the growth kinetics of the two microbes in the mixed culture.
ORBSIM- ESTIMATING GEOPHYSICAL MODEL PARAMETERS FROM PLANETARY GRAVITY DATA
Sjogren, W. L.
1994-01-01
The ORBSIM program was developed for the accurate extraction of geophysical model parameters from Doppler radio tracking data acquired from orbiting planetary spacecraft. The model of the proposed planetary structure is used in a numerical integration of the spacecraft along simulated trajectories around the primary body. Using line of sight (LOS) Doppler residuals, ORBSIM applies fast and efficient modelling and optimization procedures which avoid the traditional complex dynamic reduction of data. ORBSIM produces quantitative geophysical results such as size, depth, and mass. ORBSIM has been used extensively to investigate topographic features on the Moon, Mars, and Venus. The program has proven particulary suitable for modelling gravitational anomalies and mascons. The basic observable for spacecraft-based gravity data is the Doppler frequency shift of a transponded radio signal. The time derivative of this signal carries information regarding the gravity field acting on the spacecraft in the LOS direction (the LOS direction being the path between the spacecraft and the receiving station, either Earth or another satellite). There are many dynamic factors taken into account: earth rotation, solar radiation, acceleration from planetary bodies, tracking station time and location adjustments, etc. The actual trajectories of the spacecraft are simulated using least squares fitted to conic motion. The theoretical Doppler readings from the simulated orbits are compared to actual Doppler observations and another least squares adjustment is made. ORBSIM has three modes of operation: trajectory simulation, optimization, and gravity modelling. In all cases, an initial gravity model of curved and/or flat disks, harmonics, and/or a force table are required input. ORBSIM is written in FORTRAN 77 for batch execution and has been implemented on a DEC VAX 11/780 computer operating under VMS. This program was released in 1985.
A simple method for identifying parameter correlations in partially observed linear dynamic models.
Li, Pu; Vu, Quoc Dong
2015-12-14
Parameter estimation represents one of the most significant challenges in systems biology. This is because biological models commonly contain a large number of parameters among which there may be functional interrelationships, thus leading to the problem of non-identifiability. Although identifiability analysis has been extensively studied by analytical as well as numerical approaches, systematic methods for remedying practically non-identifiable models have rarely been investigated. We propose a simple method for identifying pairwise correlations and higher order interrelationships of parameters in partially observed linear dynamic models. This is made by derivation of the output sensitivity matrix and analysis of the linear dependencies of its columns. Consequently, analytical relations between the identifiability of the model parameters and the initial conditions as well as the input functions can be achieved. In the case of structural non-identifiability, identifiable combinations can be obtained by solving the resulting homogenous linear equations. In the case of practical non-identifiability, experiment conditions (i.e. initial condition and constant control signals) can be provided which are necessary for remedying the non-identifiability and unique parameter estimation. It is noted that the approach does not consider noisy data. In this way, the practical non-identifiability issue, which is popular for linear biological models, can be remedied. Several linear compartment models including an insulin receptor dynamics model are taken to illustrate the application of the proposed approach. Both structural and practical identifiability of partially observed linear dynamic models can be clarified by the proposed method. The result of this method provides important information for experimental design to remedy the practical non-identifiability if applicable. The derivation of the method is straightforward and thus the algorithm can be easily implemented into a
Application of multi-parameter chorus and plasmaspheric hiss wave models in radiation belt modeling
Aryan, H.; Kang, S. B.; Balikhin, M. A.; Fok, M. C. H.; Agapitov, O. V.; Komar, C. M.; Kanekal, S. G.; Nagai, T.; Sibeck, D. G.
2017-12-01
Numerical simulation studies of the Earth's radiation belts are important to understand the acceleration and loss of energetic electrons. The Comprehensive Inner Magnetosphere-Ionosphere (CIMI) model along with many other radiation belt models require inputs for pitch angle, energy, and cross diffusion of electrons, due to chorus and plasmaspheric hiss waves. These parameters are calculated using statistical wave distribution models of chorus and plasmaspheric hiss amplitudes. In this study we incorporate recently developed multi-parameter chorus and plasmaspheric hiss wave models based on geomagnetic index and solar wind parameters. We perform CIMI simulations for two geomagnetic storms and compare the flux enhancement of MeV electrons with data from the Van Allen Probes and Akebono satellites. We show that the relativistic electron fluxes calculated with multi-parameter wave models resembles the observations more accurately than the relativistic electron fluxes calculated with single-parameter wave models. This indicates that wave models based on a combination of geomagnetic index and solar wind parameters are more effective as inputs to radiation belt models.
Site-specific parameter values for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's food pathway dose model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hamby, D.M.
1992-01-01
Routine operations at the Savannah River Site (SRS) in Western South Carolina result in radionuclide releases to the atmosphere and to the Savannah River. The resulting radiation doses to the off-site maximum individual and the off-site population within 80 km of the SRS are estimated on a yearly basis. These estimates are currently generated using dose models prescribed for the commercial nuclear power industry by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The NRC provides default values for dose-model parameters for facilities without resources to develop site-specific values. A survey of land- and water-use characteristics for the Savannah River area has been conducted to determine site-specific values for water recreation, consumption, and agricultural parameters used in the NRC Regulatory Guide 1.109 (1977) dosimetric models. These site parameters include local characteristics of meat, milk, and vegetable production; recreational and commercial activities on the Savannah River; and meat, milk, vegetable, and seafood consumption rates. This paper describes how parameter data were obtained at the Savannah River Site and the impacts of such data on off-site dose. Dose estimates using site-specific parameter values are compared to estimates using the NRC default values
Application of Parameter Estimation for Diffusions and Mixture Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nolsøe, Kim
The first part of this thesis proposes a method to determine the preferred number of structures, their proportions and the corresponding geometrical shapes of an m-membered ring molecule. This is obtained by formulating a statistical model for the data and constructing an algorithm which samples...... with the posterior score function. From an application point of view this methology is easy to apply, since the optimal estimating function G(;Xt1 ; : : : ;Xtn ) is equal to the classical optimal estimating function, plus a correction term which takes into account the prior information. The methology is particularly...
Janardhanan, S.; Datta, B.
2011-12-01
Surrogate models are widely used to develop computationally efficient simulation-optimization models to solve complex groundwater management problems. Artificial intelligence based models are most often used for this purpose where they are trained using predictor-predictand data obtained from a numerical simulation model. Most often this is implemented with the assumption that the parameters and boundary conditions used in the numerical simulation model are perfectly known. However, in most practical situations these values are uncertain. Under these circumstances the application of such approximation surrogates becomes limited. In our study we develop a surrogate model based coupled simulation optimization methodology for determining optimal pumping strategies for coastal aquifers considering parameter uncertainty. An ensemble surrogate modeling approach is used along with multiple realization optimization. The methodology is used to solve a multi-objective coastal aquifer management problem considering two conflicting objectives. Hydraulic conductivity and the aquifer recharge are considered as uncertain values. Three dimensional coupled flow and transport simulation model FEMWATER is used to simulate the aquifer responses for a number of scenarios corresponding to Latin hypercube samples of pumping and uncertain parameters to generate input-output patterns for training the surrogate models. Non-parametric bootstrap sampling of this original data set is used to generate multiple data sets which belong to different regions in the multi-dimensional decision and parameter space. These data sets are used to train and test multiple surrogate models based on genetic programming. The ensemble of surrogate models is then linked to a multi-objective genetic algorithm to solve the pumping optimization problem. Two conflicting objectives, viz, maximizing total pumping from beneficial wells and minimizing the total pumping from barrier wells for hydraulic control of
Methodological application so as to obtain digital elevation models DEM in wetland areas
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Quintero, Deiby A; Montoya V, Diana M; Betancur, Teresita
2009-01-01
In order to understand hydrological systems and the description of flow processes that occur among its components it is essential to have a physiographic description that morphometric and relief characteristics. When local studies are performed, the basic cartography available, in the best case 1:25,000 scale, tends not to obey the needs required to represent the water dynamics that characterize the interactions between streams, aquifers and lenticular water bodies in flat zones particularly in those where there are wetlands localized in ancient F100D plains of rivers. A lack of financial resources is the principal obstacle to acquiring; information that is current and sufficient for the scale of the project. Geomorphologic conditions of flat relief zones are a good alternative for the construction of the new data. Using the basic cartography available and the new data, it is possible to obtain DEMs that are improved and consistent with the dynamics of surface and groundwater flows in the hydrological system. To accomplish this one must use spatial modeling tools coupled with Geographic Information System - GIS. This article present a methodological application for the region surrounding the catchment of wetland Cienaga Colombia in the Bajo Cauca region of Antioquia.
Parameter estimation and hypothesis testing in linear models
Koch, Karl-Rudolf
1999-01-01
The necessity to publish the second edition of this book arose when its third German edition had just been published. This second English edition is there fore a translation of the third German edition of Parameter Estimation and Hypothesis Testing in Linear Models, published in 1997. It differs from the first English edition by the addition of a new chapter on robust estimation of parameters and the deletion of the section on discriminant analysis, which has been more completely dealt with by the author in the book Bayesian In ference with Geodetic Applications, Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg New York, 1990. Smaller additions and deletions have been incorporated, to im prove the text, to point out new developments or to eliminate errors which became apparent. A few examples have been also added. I thank Springer-Verlag for publishing this second edition and for the assistance in checking the translation, although the responsibility of errors remains with the author. I also want to express my thanks...
Coupled 1D-2D hydrodynamic inundation model for sewer overflow: Influence of modeling parameters
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Adeniyi Ganiyu Adeogun
2015-10-01
Full Text Available This paper presents outcome of our investigation on the influence of modeling parameters on 1D-2D hydrodynamic inundation model for sewer overflow, developed through coupling of an existing 1D sewer network model (SWMM and 2D inundation model (BREZO. The 1D-2D hydrodynamic model was developed for the purpose of examining flood incidence due to surcharged water on overland surface. The investigation was carried out by performing sensitivity analysis on the developed model. For the sensitivity analysis, modeling parameters, such as mesh resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM resolution and roughness were considered. The outcome of the study shows the model is sensitive to changes in these parameters. The performance of the model is significantly influenced, by the Manning's friction value, the DEM resolution and the area of the triangular mesh. Also, changes in the aforementioned modeling parameters influence the Flood characteristics, such as the inundation extent, the flow depth and the velocity across the model domain. Keywords: Inundation, DEM, Sensitivity analysis, Model coupling, Flooding
Parameters-related uncertainty in modeling sugar cane yield with an agro-Land Surface Model
Valade, A.; Ciais, P.; Vuichard, N.; Viovy, N.; Ruget, F.; Gabrielle, B.
2012-12-01
Agro-Land Surface Models (agro-LSM) have been developed from the coupling of specific crop models and large-scale generic vegetation models. They aim at accounting for the spatial distribution and variability of energy, water and carbon fluxes within soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum with a particular emphasis on how crop phenology and agricultural management practice influence the turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere, and the underlying water and carbon pools. A part of the uncertainty in these models is related to the many parameters included in the models' equations. In this study, we quantify the parameter-based uncertainty in the simulation of sugar cane biomass production with the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS on a multi-regional approach with data from sites in Australia, La Reunion and Brazil. First, the main source of uncertainty for the output variables NPP, GPP, and sensible heat flux (SH) is determined through a screening of the main parameters of the model on a multi-site basis leading to the selection of a subset of most sensitive parameters causing most of the uncertainty. In a second step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out on the parameters selected from the screening analysis at a regional scale. For this, a Monte-Carlo sampling method associated with the calculation of Partial Ranked Correlation Coefficients is used. First, we quantify the sensitivity of the output variables to individual input parameters on a regional scale for two regions of intensive sugar cane cultivation in Australia and Brazil. Then, we quantify the overall uncertainty in the simulation's outputs propagated from the uncertainty in the input parameters. Seven parameters are identified by the screening procedure as driving most of the uncertainty in the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS model output at all sites. These parameters control photosynthesis (optimal temperature of photosynthesis, optimal carboxylation rate), radiation interception (extinction coefficient), root
From denial to awareness: a conceptual model for obtaining equity in healthcare.
Höglund, Anna T; Carlsson, Marianne; Holmström, Inger K; Lännerström, Linda; Kaminsky, Elenor
2018-01-22
Although Swedish legislation prescribes equity in healthcare, studies have reported inequalities, both in face-to-face encounters and in telephone nursing. Research has suggested that telephone nursing has the capability to increase equity in healthcare, as it is open to all and not limited by long distances. However, this requires an increased awareness of equity in healthcare among telephone nurses. The aim of this study was to explore and describe perceptions of equity in healthcare among Swedish telephone nurses who had participated in an educational intervention on equity in health, including which of the power constructs gender, ethnicity and age they commented upon most frequently. Further, the aim was to develop a conceptual model for obtaining equity in healthcare, based on the results of the empirical investigation. A qualitative method was used. Free text comments from questionnaires filled out by 133 telephone nurses before and after an educational intervention on equity in health, as well as individual interviews with five participants, were analyzed qualitatively. The number of comments related to inequity based on gender, ethnicity or age in the free text comments was counted descriptively. Gender was the factor commented upon the least and ethnicity the most. Four concepts were found through the qualitative analysis: Denial, Defense, Openness, and Awareness. Some informants denied inequity in healthcare in general, and in telephone nursing in particular. Others acknowledged it, but argued that they had workplace routines that protected against it. There were also examples of an openness to the fact that inequity existed and a willingness to learn and prevent it, as well as an already high awareness of inequity in healthcare. A conceptual model was developed in which the four concepts were divided into two qualitatively different blocks, with Denial and Defense on one side of a continuum and Openness and Awareness on the other. In order to reach
Analytical calculation of detailed model parameters of cast resin dry-type transformers
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Eslamian, M.; Vahidi, B.; Hosseinian, S.H.
2011-01-01
Highlights: → In this paper high frequency behavior of cast resin dry-type transformers was simulated. → Parameters of detailed model were calculated using analytical method and compared with FEM results. → A lab transformer was constructed in order to compare theoretical and experimental results. -- Abstract: Non-flammable characteristic of cast resin dry-type transformers make them suitable for different kind of usages. This paper presents an analytical method of how to obtain parameters of detailed model of these transformers. The calculated parameters are compared and verified with the corresponding FEM results and if it was necessary, correction factors are introduced for modification of the analytical solutions. Transient voltages under full and chopped test impulses are calculated using the obtained detailed model. In order to validate the model, a setup was constructed for testing on high-voltage winding of cast resin dry-type transformer. The simulation results were compared with the experimental data measured from FRA and impulse tests.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yu. A. Ezrokhi
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The paper considers methodological approaches to the mathematical models (MM of various levels, dedicated to estimate an impact of the entrance flow heterogeneity on the main parameters and performances of the aviation GTE and it units. By an example of calculation of a twin-shaft turbofan engine in cruiser mode, demonstrates engineering mathematical model capabilities to define the impact of the total pressure field distortion on engine trust and air flow parameters, and also gas dynamic stability margin of the both compressors.It is shown that the presented first level mathematical model allows us to estimate sufficiently the impact of entrance total pressure heterogeneity on the engine parameters. Here reliability of calculations is proved to be true by their comparison with the results, obtained owing to well fulfilled 2D & 3D mathematical models of the engine, which have been repeatedly identified by the results of experiments.It is shown that received results including those on decreasing values of stability margin of both compressors can be used for tentative estimates when choosing a desirable stability margin, providing steady operation of compressors and engine in an entire range of its operating modes. Carrying out a definitive testing calculation using the specialized engine MM of a higher level will not only confirm the results obtained, but also reduce their expected error with regard to the real values reached as a result of tests.
METHODOLOGY FOR THE ESTIMATION OF PARAMETERS, OF THE MODIFIED BOUC-WEN MODEL
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Tomasz HANISZEWSKI
2015-03-01
Full Text Available Bouc-Wen model is theoretical formulation that allows to reflect real hysteresis loop of modeled object. Such object is for example a wire rope, which is present on equipment of crane lifting mechanism. Where adopted modified version of the model has nine parameters. Determination of such a number of parameters is complex and problematic issue. In this article are shown the methodology to identify and sample results of numerical simulations. The results were compared with data obtained on the basis of laboratory tests of ropes [3] and on their basis it was found that there is compliance between results and there is possibility to apply in dynamic systems containing in their structures wire ropes [4].
Lithium-ion Battery Electrothermal Model, Parameter Estimation, and Simulation Environment
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Simone Orcioni
2017-03-01
Full Text Available The market for lithium-ion batteries is growing exponentially. The performance of battery cells is growing due to improving production technology, but market request is growing even more rapidly. Modeling and characterization of single cells and an efficient simulation environment is fundamental for the development of an efficient battery management system. The present work is devoted to defining a novel lumped electrothermal circuit of a single battery cell, the extraction procedure of the parameters of the single cell from experiments, and a simulation environment in SystemC-WMS for the simulation of a battery pack. The electrothermal model of the cell was validated against experimental measurements obtained in a climatic chamber. The model is then used to simulate a 48-cell battery, allowing statistical variations among parameters. The different behaviors of the cells in terms of state of charge, current, voltage, or heat flow rate can be observed in the results of the simulation environment.
Gowtham, K. N.; Vasudevan, M.; Maduraimuthu, V.; Jayakumar, T.
2011-04-01
Modified 9Cr-1Mo ferritic steel is used as a structural material for steam generator components of power plants. Generally, tungsten inert gas (TIG) welding is preferred for welding of these steels in which the depth of penetration achievable during autogenous welding is limited. Therefore, activated flux TIG (A-TIG) welding, a novel welding technique, has been developed in-house to increase the depth of penetration. In modified 9Cr-1Mo steel joints produced by the A-TIG welding process, weld bead width, depth of penetration, and heat-affected zone (HAZ) width play an important role in determining the mechanical properties as well as the performance of the weld joints during service. To obtain the desired weld bead geometry and HAZ width, it becomes important to set the welding process parameters. In this work, adaptative neuro fuzzy inference system is used to develop independent models correlating the welding process parameters like current, voltage, and torch speed with weld bead shape parameters like depth of penetration, bead width, and HAZ width. Then a genetic algorithm is employed to determine the optimum A-TIG welding process parameters to obtain the desired weld bead shape parameters and HAZ width.
Nakashima, Takahiro
2006-01-01
The functional specification of mean-standard deviation approach is examined under location and scale parameter condition. Firstly, the full set of restrictions imposed on the mean-standard deviation function under the location and scale parameter condition are made clear. Secondly, the examination based on the restrictions mentioned in the previous sentence derives the new properties of the mean-standard deviation function on the applicability of additive separability and the curvature of ex...
SiC-VJFETs power switching devices: an improved model and parameter optimization technique
Ben Salah, T.; Lahbib, Y.; Morel, H.
2009-12-01
Silicon carbide junction field effect transistor (SiC-JFETs) is a mature power switch newly applied in several industrial applications. SiC-JFETs are often simulated by Spice model in order to predict their electrical behaviour. Although such a model provides sufficient accuracy for some applications, this paper shows that it presents serious shortcomings in terms of the neglect of the body diode model, among many others in circuit model topology. Simulation correction is then mandatory and a new model should be proposed. Moreover, this paper gives an enhanced model based on experimental dc and ac data. New devices are added to the conventional circuit model giving accurate static and dynamic behaviour, an effect not accounted in the Spice model. The improved model is implemented into VHDL-AMS language and steady-state dynamic and transient responses are simulated for many SiC-VJFETs samples. Very simple and reliable optimization algorithm based on the optimization of a cost function is proposed to extract the JFET model parameters. The obtained parameters are verified by comparing errors between simulations results and experimental data.
Amalia, Junita; Purhadi, Otok, Bambang Widjanarko
2017-11-01
Poisson distribution is a discrete distribution with count data as the random variables and it has one parameter defines both mean and variance. Poisson regression assumes mean and variance should be same (equidispersion). Nonetheless, some case of the count data unsatisfied this assumption because variance exceeds mean (over-dispersion). The ignorance of over-dispersion causes underestimates in standard error. Furthermore, it causes incorrect decision in the statistical test. Previously, paired count data has a correlation and it has bivariate Poisson distribution. If there is over-dispersion, modeling paired count data is not sufficient with simple bivariate Poisson regression. Bivariate Poisson Inverse Gaussian Regression (BPIGR) model is mix Poisson regression for modeling paired count data within over-dispersion. BPIGR model produces a global model for all locations. In another hand, each location has different geographic conditions, social, cultural and economic so that Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) is needed. The weighting function of each location in GWR generates a different local model. Geographically Weighted Bivariate Poisson Inverse Gaussian Regression (GWBPIGR) model is used to solve over-dispersion and to generate local models. Parameter estimation of GWBPIGR model obtained by Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method. Meanwhile, hypothesis testing of GWBPIGR model acquired by Maximum Likelihood Ratio Test (MLRT) method.
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Lezhnin Sergey
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The two-temperature model of the outflow from a vessel with initial supercritical parameters of medium has been realized. The model uses thermodynamic non-equilibrium relaxation approach to describe phase transitions. Based on a new asymptotic model for computing the relaxation time, the outflow of water with supercritical initial pressure and super- and subcritical temperatures has been calculated.
Transient dynamic and modeling parameter sensitivity analysis of 1D solid oxide fuel cell model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Huangfu, Yigeng; Gao, Fei; Abbas-Turki, Abdeljalil; Bouquain, David; Miraoui, Abdellatif
2013-01-01
Highlights: • A multiphysics, 1D, dynamic SOFC model is developed. • The presented model is validated experimentally in eight different operating conditions. • Electrochemical and thermal dynamic transient time expressions are given in explicit forms. • Parameter sensitivity is discussed for different semi-empirical parameters in the model. - Abstract: In this paper, a multiphysics solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) dynamic model is developed by using a one dimensional (1D) modeling approach. The dynamic effects of double layer capacitance on the electrochemical domain and the dynamic effect of thermal capacity on thermal domain are thoroughly considered. The 1D approach allows the model to predict the non-uniform distributions of current density, gas pressure and temperature in SOFC during its operation. The developed model has been experimentally validated, under different conditions of temperature and gas pressure. Based on the proposed model, the explicit time constant expressions for different dynamic phenomena in SOFC have been given and discussed in detail. A parameters sensitivity study has also been performed and discussed by using statistical Multi Parameter Sensitivity Analysis (MPSA) method, in order to investigate the impact of parameters on the modeling accuracy
A sEMG model with experimentally based simulation parameters.
Wheeler, Katherine A; Shimada, Hiroshima; Kumar, Dinesh K; Arjunan, Sridhar P
2010-01-01
A differential, time-invariant, surface electromyogram (sEMG) model has been implemented. While it is based on existing EMG models, the novelty of this implementation is that it assigns more accurate distributions of variables to create realistic motor unit (MU) characteristics. Variables such as muscle fibre conduction velocity, jitter (the change in the interpulse interval between subsequent action potential firings) and motor unit size have been considered to follow normal distributions about an experimentally obtained mean. In addition, motor unit firing frequencies have been considered to have non-linear and type based distributions that are in accordance with experimental results. Motor unit recruitment thresholds have been considered to be related to the MU type. The model has been used to simulate single channel differential sEMG signals from voluntary, isometric contractions of the biceps brachii muscle. The model has been experimentally verified by conducting experiments on three subjects. Comparison between simulated signals and experimental recordings shows that the Root Mean Square (RMS) increases linearly with force in both cases. The simulated signals also show similar values and rates of change of RMS to the experimental signals.
Parameter Estimation of a Delay Time Model of Wearing Parts Based on Objective Data
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Y. Tang
2015-01-01
Full Text Available The wearing parts of a system have a very high failure frequency, making it necessary to carry out continual functional inspections and maintenance to protect the system from unscheduled downtime. This allows for the collection of a large amount of maintenance data. Taking the unique characteristics of the wearing parts into consideration, we establish their respective delay time models in ideal inspection cases and nonideal inspection cases. The model parameters are estimated entirely using the collected maintenance data. Then, a likelihood function of all renewal events is derived based on their occurring probability functions, and the model parameters are calculated with the maximum likelihood function method, which is solved by the CRM. Finally, using two wearing parts from the oil and gas drilling industry as examples—the filter element and the blowout preventer rubber core—the parameters of the distribution function of the initial failure time and the delay time for each example are estimated, and their distribution functions are obtained. Such parameter estimation based on objective data will contribute to the optimization of the reasonable function inspection interval and will also provide some theoretical models to support the integrity management of equipment or systems.
Pozzobon, Victor; Perre, Patrick
2018-01-21
This work provides a model and the associated set of parameters allowing for microalgae population growth computation under intermittent lightning. Han's model is coupled with a simple microalgae growth model to yield a relationship between illumination and population growth. The model parameters were obtained by fitting a dataset available in literature using Particle Swarm Optimization method. In their work, authors grew microalgae in excess of nutrients under flashing conditions. Light/dark cycles used for these experimentations are quite close to those found in photobioreactor, i.e. ranging from several seconds to one minute. In this work, in addition to producing the set of parameters, Particle Swarm Optimization robustness was assessed. To do so, two different swarm initialization techniques were used, i.e. uniform and random distribution throughout the search-space. Both yielded the same results. In addition, swarm distribution analysis reveals that the swarm converges to a unique minimum. Thus, the produced set of parameters can be trustfully used to link light intensity to population growth rate. Furthermore, the set is capable to describe photodamages effects on population growth. Hence, accounting for light overexposure effect on algal growth. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bhartia, Mini; Chatterjee, Arun Kumar
2015-01-01
A 2D model for the potential distribution in silicon film is derived for a symmetrical double gate MOSFET in weak inversion. This 2D potential distribution model is used to analytically derive an expression for the subthreshold slope and threshold voltage. A drain current model for lightly doped symmetrical DG MOSFETs is then presented by considering weak and strong inversion regions including short channel effects, series source to drain resistance and channel length modulation parameters. These derived models are compared with the simulation results of the SILVACO (Atlas) tool for different channel lengths and silicon film thicknesses. Lastly, the effect of the fixed oxide charge on the drain current model has been studied through simulation. It is observed that the obtained analytical models of symmetrical double gate MOSFETs are in good agreement with the simulated results for a channel length to silicon film thickness ratio greater than or equal to 2. (paper)
Bhartia, Mini; Chatterjee, Arun Kumar
2015-04-01
A 2D model for the potential distribution in silicon film is derived for a symmetrical double gate MOSFET in weak inversion. This 2D potential distribution model is used to analytically derive an expression for the subthreshold slope and threshold voltage. A drain current model for lightly doped symmetrical DG MOSFETs is then presented by considering weak and strong inversion regions including short channel effects, series source to drain resistance and channel length modulation parameters. These derived models are compared with the simulation results of the SILVACO (Atlas) tool for different channel lengths and silicon film thicknesses. Lastly, the effect of the fixed oxide charge on the drain current model has been studied through simulation. It is observed that the obtained analytical models of symmetrical double gate MOSFETs are in good agreement with the simulated results for a channel length to silicon film thickness ratio greater than or equal to 2.
Automatic J–A Model Parameter Tuning Algorithm for High Accuracy Inrush Current Simulation
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Xishan Wen
2017-04-01
Full Text Available Inrush current simulation plays an important role in many tasks of the power system, such as power transformer protection. However, the accuracy of the inrush current simulation can hardly be ensured. In this paper, a Jiles–Atherton (J–A theory based model is proposed to simulate the inrush current of power transformers. The characteristics of the inrush current curve are analyzed and results show that the entire inrush current curve can be well featured by the crest value of the first two cycles. With comprehensive consideration of both of the features of the inrush current curve and the J–A parameters, an automatic J–A parameter estimation algorithm is proposed. The proposed algorithm can obtain more reasonable J–A parameters, which improve the accuracy of simulation. Experimental results have verified the efficiency of the proposed algorithm.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Li Wang
2017-02-01
Full Text Available The ability to obtain appropriate parameters for an advanced pressurized water reactor (PWR unit model is of great significance for power system analysis. The attributes of that ability include the following: nonlinear relationships, long transition time, intercoupled parameters and difficult obtainment from practical test, posed complexity and difficult parameter identification. In this paper, a model and a parameter identification method for the PWR primary loop system were investigated. A parameter identification process was proposed, using a particle swarm optimization (PSO algorithm that is based on random perturbation (RP-PSO. The identification process included model variable initialization based on the differential equations of each sub-module and program setting method, parameter obtainment through sub-module identification in the Matlab/Simulink Software (Math Works Inc., Natick, MA, USA as well as adaptation analysis for an integrated model. A lot of parameter identification work was carried out, the results of which verified the effectiveness of the method. It was found that the change of some parameters, like the fuel temperature and coolant temperature feedback coefficients, changed the model gain, of which the trajectory sensitivities were not zero. Thus, obtaining their appropriate values had significant effects on the simulation results. The trajectory sensitivities of some parameters in the core neutron dynamic module were interrelated, causing the parameters to be difficult to identify. The model parameter sensitivity could be different, which would be influenced by the model input conditions, reflecting the parameter identifiability difficulty degree for various input conditions.
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Bin Deng
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Parabolic-reflector antennas (PRAs, usually possessing rotation, are a particular type of targets of potential interest to the synthetic aperture radar (SAR community. This paper is aimed to investigate PRA’s scattering characteristics and then to extract PRA’s parameters from SAR returns, for supporting image interpretation and target recognition. We at first obtain both closed-form and numeric solutions to PRA’s backscattering by geometrical optics (GO, physical optics, and graphical electromagnetic computation, respectively. Based on the GO solution, a migratory scattering center model is at first presented for representing the movement of the specular point with aspect angle, and then a hybrid model, named the migratory/micromotion scattering center (MMSC model, is proposed for characterizing a rotating PRA in the SAR geometry, which incorporates PRA’s rotation into its migratory scattering center model. Additionally, we in detail analyze PRA’s radar characteristics on radar cross-section, high-resolution range profiles, time-frequency distribution, and 2D images, which also confirm the models proposed. A maximal likelihood estimator is developed for jointly solving the MMSC model for PRA’s multiple parameters by optimization. By exploiting the aforementioned characteristics, the coarse parameter estimation guarantees convergency upon global minima. The signatures recovered can be favorably utilized for SAR image interpretation and target recognition.
Comparison of ionospheric profile parameters with IRI-2012 model over Jicamarca
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bello, S A; Abdullah, M; Hamid, N S A; Reinisch, B W
2017-01-01
We used the hourly ionogram data obtained from Jicamarca station (12° S, 76.9° W, dip latitude: 1.0° N) an equatorial region to study the variation of the electron density profile parameters: maximum height of F2-layer ( hm F2), bottomside thickness ( B0 ) and shape ( B1 ) parameter of F-layer. The period of study is for the year 2010 (solar minimum period).The diurnal monthly averages of these parameters are compared with the updated IRI-2012 model. The results show that hm F2 is highest during the daytime than nighttime. The variation in hmF2 was observed to modulate the thickness of the bottomside F2-layer. The observed hm F2 and B0 post-sunset peak is as result of the upward drift velocity of ionospheric plasma. We found a close agreement between IRI-CCIR hm F2 model and observed hm F2 during 0000-0700 LT while outside this period the model predictions deviate significantly with the observational values. Significant discrepancies are observed between the IRI model options for B0 and the observed B0 values. Specifically, the modeled values do not show B0 post-sunset peak. A fairly good agreement was observed between the observed B1 and IRI model options (ABT-2009 and Bill 2000) for B1 . (paper)
Comparison of ionospheric profile parameters with IRI-2012 model over Jicamarca
Bello, S. A.; Abdullah, M.; Hamid, N. S. A.; Reinisch, B. W.
2017-05-01
We used the hourly ionogram data obtained from Jicamarca station (12° S, 76.9° W, dip latitude: 1.0° N) an equatorial region to study the variation of the electron density profile parameters: maximum height of F2-layer (hmF2), bottomside thickness (B0) and shape (B1) parameter of F-layer. The period of study is for the year 2010 (solar minimum period).The diurnal monthly averages of these parameters are compared with the updated IRI-2012 model. The results show that hmF2 is highest during the daytime than nighttime. The variation in hmF2 was observed to modulate the thickness of the bottomside F2-layer. The observed hmF2 and B0 post-sunset peak is as result of the upward drift velocity of ionospheric plasma. We found a close agreement between IRI-CCIR hmF2 model and observed hmF2 during 0000-0700 LT while outside this period the model predictions deviate significantly with the observational values. Significant discrepancies are observed between the IRI model options for B0 and the observed B0 values. Specifically, the modeled values do not show B0 post-sunset peak. A fairly good agreement was observed between the observed B1 and IRI model options (ABT-2009 and Bill 2000) for B1.
Inference of reactive transport model parameters using a Bayesian multivariate approach
Carniato, Luca; Schoups, Gerrit; van de Giesen, Nick
2014-08-01
Parameter estimation of subsurface transport models from multispecies data requires the definition of an objective function that includes different types of measurements. Common approaches are weighted least squares (WLS), where weights are specified a priori for each measurement, and weighted least squares with weight estimation (WLS(we)) where weights are estimated from the data together with the parameters. In this study, we formulate the parameter estimation task as a multivariate Bayesian inference problem. The WLS and WLS(we) methods are special cases in this framework, corresponding to specific prior assumptions about the residual covariance matrix. The Bayesian perspective allows for generalizations to cases where residual correlation is important and for efficient inference by analytically integrating out the variances (weights) and selected covariances from the joint posterior. Specifically, the WLS and WLS(we) methods are compared to a multivariate (MV) approach that accounts for specific residual correlations without the need for explicit estimation of the error parameters. When applied to inference of reactive transport model parameters from column-scale data on dissolved species concentrations, the following results were obtained: (1) accounting for residual correlation between species provides more accurate parameter estimation for high residual correlation levels whereas its influence for predictive uncertainty is negligible, (2) integrating out the (co)variances leads to an efficient estimation of the full joint posterior with a reduced computational effort compared to the WLS(we) method, and (3) in the presence of model structural errors, none of the methods is able to identify the correct parameter values.
Ramin, Elham; Sin, Gürkan; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Plósz, Benedek Gy
2014-10-15
Current research focuses on predicting and mitigating the impacts of high hydraulic loadings on centralized wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) under wet-weather conditions. The maximum permissible inflow to WWTPs depends not only on the settleability of activated sludge in secondary settling tanks (SSTs) but also on the hydraulic behaviour of SSTs. The present study investigates the impacts of ideal and non-ideal flow (dry and wet weather) and settling (good settling and bulking) boundary conditions on the sensitivity of WWTP model outputs to uncertainties intrinsic to the one-dimensional (1-D) SST model structures and parameters. We identify the critical sources of uncertainty in WWTP models through global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using the Benchmark simulation model No. 1 in combination with first- and second-order 1-D SST models. The results obtained illustrate that the contribution of settling parameters to the total variance of the key WWTP process outputs significantly depends on the influent flow and settling conditions. The magnitude of the impact is found to vary, depending on which type of 1-D SST model is used. Therefore, we identify and recommend potential parameter subsets for WWTP model calibration, and propose optimal choice of 1-D SST models under different flow and settling boundary conditions. Additionally, the hydraulic parameters in the second-order SST model are found significant under dynamic wet-weather flow conditions. These results highlight the importance of developing a more mechanistic based flow-dependent hydraulic sub-model in second-order 1-D SST models in the future. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Sensitivity of numerical dispersion modeling to explosive source parameters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Baskett, R.L.; Cederwall, R.T.
1991-01-01
The calculation of downwind concentrations from non-traditional sources, such as explosions, provides unique challenges to dispersion models. The US Department of Energy has assigned the Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) the task of estimating the impact of accidental radiological releases to the atmosphere anywhere in the world. Our experience includes responses to over 25 incidents in the past 16 years, and about 150 exercises a year. Examples of responses to explosive accidents include the 1980 Titan 2 missile fuel explosion near Damascus, Arkansas and the hydrogen gas explosion in the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident. Based on judgment and experience, we frequently estimate the source geometry and the amount of toxic material aerosolized as well as its particle size distribution. To expedite our real-time response, we developed some automated algorithms and default assumptions about several potential sources. It is useful to know how well these algorithms perform against real-world measurements and how sensitive our dispersion model is to the potential range of input values. In this paper we present the algorithms we use to simulate explosive events, compare these methods with limited field data measurements, and analyze their sensitivity to input parameters. 14 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs
Physical property parameter set for modeling ICPP aqueous wastes with ASPEN electrolyte NRTL model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schindler, R.E.
1996-09-01
The aqueous waste evaporators at the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant (ICPP) are being modeled using ASPEN software. The ASPEN software calculates chemical and vapor-liquid equilibria with activity coefficients calculated using the electrolyte Non-Random Two Liquid (NRTL) model for local excess Gibbs free energies of interactions between ions and molecules in solution. The use of the electrolyte NRTL model requires the determination of empirical parameters for the excess Gibbs free energies of the interactions between species in solution. This report covers the development of a set parameters, from literature data, for the use of the electrolyte NRTL model with the major solutes in the ICPP aqueous wastes
Hydrological model performance and parameter estimation in the wavelet-domain
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B. Schaefli
2009-10-01
Full Text Available This paper proposes a method for rainfall-runoff model calibration and performance analysis in the wavelet-domain by fitting the estimated wavelet-power spectrum (a representation of the time-varying frequency content of a time series of a simulated discharge series to the one of the corresponding observed time series. As discussed in this paper, calibrating hydrological models so as to reproduce the time-varying frequency content of the observed signal can lead to different results than parameter estimation in the time-domain. Therefore, wavelet-domain parameter estimation has the potential to give new insights into model performance and to reveal model structural deficiencies. We apply the proposed method to synthetic case studies and a real-world discharge modeling case study and discuss how model diagnosis can benefit from an analysis in the wavelet-domain. The results show that for the real-world case study of precipitation – runoff modeling for a high alpine catchment, the calibrated discharge simulation captures the dynamics of the observed time series better than the results obtained through calibration in the time-domain. In addition, the wavelet-domain performance assessment of this case study highlights the frequencies that are not well reproduced by the model, which gives specific indications about how to improve the model structure.
Effect of Uncertainty Parameters in Blowdown and Reflood Models for OPR1000 LBLOCA Analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Huh, Byung Gil; Jin, Chang Yong; Seul, Kwangwon; Hwang, Taesuk [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2014-05-15
KINS(Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety) has also performed the audit calculation with the KINS Realistic Evaluation Methodology(KINS-REM) to confirm the validity of licensee's calculation. In the BEPU method, it is very important to quantify the code and model uncertainty. It is referred in the following requirement: BE calculations in Regulatory Guide 1.157 - 'the code and models used are acceptable and applicable to the specific facility over the intended operating range and must quantify the uncertainty in the specific application'. In general, the uncertainty of model/code should be obtained through the data comparison with relevant integral- and separate-effect tests at different scales. However, it is not easy to determine these kinds of uncertainty because of the difficulty for evaluating accurately various experiments. Therefore, the expert judgment has been used in many cases even with the limitation that the uncertainty range of important parameters can be wide and inaccurate. In the KINS-REM, six heat transfer parameters in the blowdown phase have been used to consider the uncertainty of models. Recently, MARS-KS code was modified to consider the uncertainty of the five heat transfer parameters in the reflood phase. Accordingly, it is required that the uncertainty range for parameters of reflood models is determined and the effect of these ranges is evaluated. In this study, the large break LOCA (LBLOCA) analysis for OPR1000 was performed to identify the effect of uncertainty parameters in blowdown and reflood models.
Reference tissue modeling with parameter coupling: application to a study of SERT binding in HIV
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Endres, Christopher J; Pomper, Martin G [Russell H Morgan Department of Radiology and Radiological Science, Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions, Baltimore, MD 21231 (United States); Hammoud, Dima A, E-mail: endres@jhmi.edu [Radiology and Imaging Sciences, National Institutes of Health/Clinical Center, Bethesda, MD (United States)
2011-04-21
When applicable, it is generally preferred to evaluate positron emission tomography (PET) studies using a reference tissue-based approach as that avoids the need for invasive arterial blood sampling. However, most reference tissue methods have been shown to have a bias that is dependent on the level of tracer binding, and the variability of parameter estimates may be substantially affected by noise level. In a study of serotonin transporter (SERT) binding in HIV dementia, it was determined that applying parameter coupling to the simplified reference tissue model (SRTM) reduced the variability of parameter estimates and yielded the strongest between-group significant differences in SERT binding. The use of parameter coupling makes the application of SRTM more consistent with conventional blood input models and reduces the total number of fitted parameters, thus should yield more robust parameter estimates. Here, we provide a detailed evaluation of the application of parameter constraint and parameter coupling to [{sup 11}C]DASB PET studies. Five quantitative methods, including three methods that constrain the reference tissue clearance (k{sup r}{sub 2}) to a common value across regions were applied to the clinical and simulated data to compare measurement of the tracer binding potential (BP{sub ND}). Compared with standard SRTM, either coupling of k{sup r}{sub 2} across regions or constraining k{sup r}{sub 2} to a first-pass estimate improved the sensitivity of SRTM to measuring a significant difference in BP{sub ND} between patients and controls. Parameter coupling was particularly effective in reducing the variance of parameter estimates, which was less than 50% of the variance obtained with standard SRTM. A linear approach was also improved when constraining k{sup r}{sub 2} to a first-pass estimate, although the SRTM-based methods yielded stronger significant differences when applied to the clinical study. This work shows that parameter coupling reduces the
Parameter Estimation of Structural Equation Modeling Using Bayesian Approach
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dewi Kurnia Sari
2016-05-01
Full Text Available Leadership is a process of influencing, directing or giving an example of employees in order to achieve the objectives of the organization and is a key element in the effectiveness of the organization. In addition to the style of leadership, the success of an organization or company in achieving its objectives can also be influenced by the commitment of the organization. Where organizational commitment is a commitment created by each individual for the betterment of the organization. The purpose of this research is to obtain a model of leadership style and organizational commitment to job satisfaction and employee performance, and determine the factors that influence job satisfaction and employee performance using SEM with Bayesian approach. This research was conducted at Statistics FNI employees in Malang, with 15 people. The result of this study showed that the measurement model, all significant indicators measure each latent variable. Meanwhile in the structural model, it was concluded there are a significant difference between the variables of Leadership Style and Organizational Commitment toward Job Satisfaction directly as well as a significant difference between Job Satisfaction on Employee Performance. As for the influence of Leadership Style and variable Organizational Commitment on Employee Performance directly declared insignificant.
Assigning probability distributions to input parameters of performance assessment models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mishra, Srikanta [INTERA Inc., Austin, TX (United States)
2002-02-01
This study presents an overview of various approaches for assigning probability distributions to input parameters and/or future states of performance assessment models. Specifically,three broad approaches are discussed for developing input distributions: (a) fitting continuous distributions to data, (b) subjective assessment of probabilities, and (c) Bayesian updating of prior knowledge based on new information. The report begins with a summary of the nature of data and distributions, followed by a discussion of several common theoretical parametric models for characterizing distributions. Next, various techniques are presented for fitting continuous distributions to data. These include probability plotting, method of moments, maximum likelihood estimation and nonlinear least squares analysis. The techniques are demonstrated using data from a recent performance assessment study for the Yucca Mountain project. Goodness of fit techniques are also discussed, followed by an overview of how distribution fitting is accomplished in commercial software packages. The issue of subjective assessment of probabilities is dealt with in terms of the maximum entropy distribution selection approach, as well as some common rules for codifying informal expert judgment. Formal expert elicitation protocols are discussed next, and are based primarily on the guidance provided by the US NRC. The Bayesian framework for updating prior distributions (beliefs) when new information becomes available is discussed. A simple numerical approach is presented for facilitating practical applications of the Bayes theorem. Finally, a systematic framework for assigning distributions is presented: (a) for the situation where enough data are available to define an empirical CDF or fit a parametric model to the data, and (b) to deal with the situation where only a limited amount of information is available.
Assigning probability distributions to input parameters of performance assessment models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mishra, Srikanta
2002-02-01
This study presents an overview of various approaches for assigning probability distributions to input parameters and/or future states of performance assessment models. Specifically,three broad approaches are discussed for developing input distributions: (a) fitting continuous distributions to data, (b) subjective assessment of probabilities, and (c) Bayesian updating of prior knowledge based on new information. The report begins with a summary of the nature of data and distributions, followed by a discussion of several common theoretical parametric models for characterizing distributions. Next, various techniques are presented for fitting continuous distributions to data. These include probability plotting, method of moments, maximum likelihood estimation and nonlinear least squares analysis. The techniques are demonstrated using data from