WorldWideScience

Sample records for model parameters based

  1. GIS-Based Hydrogeological-Parameter Modeling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    A regression model is proposed to relate the variation of water well depth with topographic properties (area and slope), the variation of hydraulic conductivity and vertical decay factor. The implementation of this model in GIS environment (ARC/TNFO) based on known water data and DEM is used to estimate the variation of hydraulic conductivity and decay factor of different lithoiogy units in watershed context.

  2. Weibull Parameters Estimation Based on Physics of Failure Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kostandyan, Erik; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2012-01-01

    Reliability estimation procedures are discussed for the example of fatigue development in solder joints using a physics of failure model. The accumulated damage is estimated based on a physics of failure model, the Rainflow counting algorithm and the Miner’s rule. A threshold model is used...... distribution. Methods from structural reliability analysis are used to model the uncertainties and to assess the reliability for fatigue failure. Maximum Likelihood and Least Square estimation techniques are used to estimate fatigue life distribution parameters....

  3. Dynamic Load Model using PSO-Based Parameter Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taoka, Hisao; Matsuki, Junya; Tomoda, Michiya; Hayashi, Yasuhiro; Yamagishi, Yoshio; Kanao, Norikazu

    This paper presents a new method for estimating unknown parameters of dynamic load model as a parallel composite of a constant impedance load and an induction motor behind a series constant reactance. An adequate dynamic load model is essential for evaluating power system stability, and this model can represent the behavior of actual load by using appropriate parameters. However, the problem of this model is that a lot of parameters are necessary and it is not easy to estimate a lot of unknown parameters. We propose an estimating method based on Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) which is a non-linear optimization method by using the data of voltage, active power and reactive power measured at voltage sag.

  4. CADLIVE optimizer: web-based parameter estimation for dynamic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inoue Kentaro

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Computer simulation has been an important technique to capture the dynamics of biochemical networks. In most networks, however, few kinetic parameters have been measured in vivo because of experimental complexity. We develop a kinetic parameter estimation system, named the CADLIVE Optimizer, which comprises genetic algorithms-based solvers with a graphical user interface. This optimizer is integrated into the CADLIVE Dynamic Simulator to attain efficient simulation for dynamic models.

  5. Synchronous Generator Model Parameter Estimation Based on Noisy Dynamic Waveforms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berhausen, Sebastian; Paszek, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, there have occurred system failures in many power systems all over the world. They have resulted in a lack of power supply to a large number of recipients. To minimize the risk of occurrence of power failures, it is necessary to perform multivariate investigations, including simulations, of power system operating conditions. To conduct reliable simulations, the current base of parameters of the models of generating units, containing the models of synchronous generators, is necessary. In the paper, there is presented a method for parameter estimation of a synchronous generator nonlinear model based on the analysis of selected transient waveforms caused by introducing a disturbance (in the form of a pseudorandom signal) in the generator voltage regulation channel. The parameter estimation was performed by minimizing the objective function defined as a mean square error for deviations between the measurement waveforms and the waveforms calculated based on the generator mathematical model. A hybrid algorithm was used for the minimization of the objective function. In the paper, there is described a filter system used for filtering the noisy measurement waveforms. The calculation results of the model of a 44 kW synchronous generator installed on a laboratory stand of the Institute of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science of the Silesian University of Technology are also given. The presented estimation method can be successfully applied to parameter estimation of different models of high-power synchronous generators operating in a power system.

  6. Surrogate based approaches to parameter inference in ocean models

    KAUST Repository

    Knio, Omar

    2016-01-06

    This talk discusses the inference of physical parameters using model surrogates. Attention is focused on the use of sampling schemes to build suitable representations of the dependence of the model response on uncertain input data. Non-intrusive spectral projections and regularized regressions are used for this purpose. A Bayesian inference formalism is then applied to update the uncertain inputs based on available measurements or observations. To perform the update, we consider two alternative approaches, based on the application of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods or of adjoint-based optimization techniques. We outline the implementation of these techniques to infer dependence of wind drag, bottom drag, and internal mixing coefficients.

  7. Parameter optimization in differential geometry based solvation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bao; Wei, G W

    2015-10-01

    Differential geometry (DG) based solvation models are a new class of variational implicit solvent approaches that are able to avoid unphysical solvent-solute boundary definitions and associated geometric singularities, and dynamically couple polar and non-polar interactions in a self-consistent framework. Our earlier study indicates that DG based non-polar solvation model outperforms other methods in non-polar solvation energy predictions. However, the DG based full solvation model has not shown its superiority in solvation analysis, due to its difficulty in parametrization, which must ensure the stability of the solution of strongly coupled nonlinear Laplace-Beltrami and Poisson-Boltzmann equations. In this work, we introduce new parameter learning algorithms based on perturbation and convex optimization theories to stabilize the numerical solution and thus achieve an optimal parametrization of the DG based solvation models. An interesting feature of the present DG based solvation model is that it provides accurate solvation free energy predictions for both polar and non-polar molecules in a unified formulation. Extensive numerical experiment demonstrates that the present DG based solvation model delivers some of the most accurate predictions of the solvation free energies for a large number of molecules.

  8. Minor hysteresis loops model based on exponential parameters scaling of the modified Jiles-Atherton model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamimid, M., E-mail: Hamimid_mourad@hotmail.com [Laboratoire de modelisation des systemes energetiques LMSE, Universite de Biskra, BP 145, 07000 Biskra (Algeria); Mimoune, S.M., E-mail: s.m.mimoune@mselab.org [Laboratoire de modelisation des systemes energetiques LMSE, Universite de Biskra, BP 145, 07000 Biskra (Algeria); Feliachi, M., E-mail: mouloud.feliachi@univ-nantes.fr [IREENA-IUT, CRTT, 37 Boulevard de l' Universite, BP 406, 44602 Saint Nazaire Cedex (France)

    2012-07-01

    In this present work, the minor hysteresis loops model based on parameters scaling of the modified Jiles-Atherton model is evaluated by using judicious expressions. These expressions give the minor hysteresis loops parameters as a function of the major hysteresis loop ones. They have exponential form and are obtained by parameters identification using the stochastic optimization method 'simulated annealing'. The main parameters influencing the data fitting are three parameters, the pinning parameter k, the mean filed parameter {alpha} and the parameter which characterizes the shape of anhysteretic magnetization curve a. To validate this model, calculated minor hysteresis loops are compared with measured ones and good agreements are obtained.

  9. Empirically modelled Pc3 activity based on solar wind parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Raita

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available It is known that under certain solar wind (SW/interplanetary magnetic field (IMF conditions (e.g. high SW speed, low cone angle the occurrence of ground-level Pc3–4 pulsations is more likely. In this paper we demonstrate that in the event of anomalously low SW particle density, Pc3 activity is extremely low regardless of otherwise favourable SW speed and cone angle. We re-investigate the SW control of Pc3 pulsation activity through a statistical analysis and two empirical models with emphasis on the influence of SW density on Pc3 activity. We utilise SW and IMF measurements from the OMNI project and ground-based magnetometer measurements from the MM100 array to relate SW and IMF measurements to the occurrence of Pc3 activity. Multiple linear regression and artificial neural network models are used in iterative processes in order to identify sets of SW-based input parameters, which optimally reproduce a set of Pc3 activity data. The inclusion of SW density in the parameter set significantly improves the models. Not only the density itself, but other density related parameters, such as the dynamic pressure of the SW, or the standoff distance of the magnetopause work equally well in the model. The disappearance of Pc3s during low-density events can have at least four reasons according to the existing upstream wave theory: 1. Pausing the ion-cyclotron resonance that generates the upstream ultra low frequency waves in the absence of protons, 2. Weakening of the bow shock that implies less efficient reflection, 3. The SW becomes sub-Alfvénic and hence it is not able to sweep back the waves propagating upstream with the Alfvén-speed, and 4. The increase of the standoff distance of the magnetopause (and of the bow shock. Although the models cannot account for the lack of Pc3s during intervals when the SW density is extremely low, the resulting sets of optimal model inputs support the generation of mid latitude Pc3 activity predominantly through

  10. X-Parameter Based Modelling of Polar Modulated Power Amplifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Yelin; Nielsen, Troels Studsgaard; Sira, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    X-parameters are developed as an extension of S-parameters capable of modelling non-linear devices driven by large signals. They are suitable for devices having only radio frequency (RF) and DC ports. In a polar power amplifier (PA), phase and envelope of the input modulated signal are applied...... at separate ports and the envelope port is neither an RF nor a DC port. As a result, X-parameters may fail to characterise the effect of the envelope port excitation and consequently the polar PA. This study introduces a solution to the problem for a commercial polar PA. In this solution, the RF-phase path...

  11. Viscoelastic Parameter Model of Magnetorheological Elastomers Based on Abel Dashpot

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Guo

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a parametric constitutive model based on Abel dashpot is established in a simple form and with clear physical meaning to deduce the expression of dynamic mechanical modulus of MREs. Meanwhile, in consideration for the pressure stress on MREs in the experiment of shear mechanical properties or the application to vibration damper, some improvements are made on the particle chain model based on the coupled field. In addition, in order to verify the accuracy of the overall model, five groups of MREs samples based on silicone rubber with different volume fractions are prepared and the MCR51 rheometer is used to conduct the experiment of dynamic mechanical properties based on frequency and magnetic field scanning. Finally, experimental results indicate that the established model fits well with laboratory data; namely, the relationship between the dynamic modulus of MREs and changes in frequency and magnetic field is well described by the model.

  12. Multi-Variable Model-Based Parameter Estimation Model for Antenna Radiation Pattern Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deshpande, Manohar D.; Cravey, Robin L.

    2002-01-01

    A new procedure is presented to develop multi-variable model-based parameter estimation (MBPE) model to predict far field intensity of antenna. By performing MBPE model development procedure on a single variable at a time, the present method requires solution of smaller size matrices. The utility of the present method is demonstrated by determining far field intensity due to a dipole antenna over a frequency range of 100-1000 MHz and elevation angle range of 0-90 degrees.

  13. Parameter estimation for the subcritical Heston model based on discrete time observations

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    We study asymptotic properties of some (essentially conditional least squares) parameter estimators for the subcritical Heston model based on discrete time observations derived from conditional least squares estimators of some modified parameters.

  14. Parameter Selection and Performance Analysis of Mobile Terminal Models Based on Unity3D

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    KONG Li-feng; ZHAO Hai-ying; XU Guang-mei

    2014-01-01

    Mobile platform is now widely seen as a promising multimedia service with a favorable user group and market prospect. To study the influence of mobile terminal models on the quality of scene roaming, a parameter setting platform of mobile terminal models is established to select the parameter selection and performance index on different mobile platforms in this paper. This test platform is established based on model optimality principle, analyzing the performance curve of mobile terminals in different scene models and then deducing the external parameter of model establishment. Simulation results prove that the established test platform is able to analyze the parameter and performance matching list of a mobile terminal model.

  15. Multiobjective adaptive surrogate modeling-based optimization for parameter estimation of large, complex geophysical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Wei; Duan, Qingyun; Li, Jianduo; Wang, Chen; Di, Zhenhua; Ye, Aizhong; Miao, Chiyuan; Dai, Yongjiu

    2016-03-01

    Parameter specification is an important source of uncertainty in large, complex geophysical models. These models generally have multiple model outputs that require multiobjective optimization algorithms. Although such algorithms have long been available, they usually require a large number of model runs and are therefore computationally expensive for large, complex dynamic models. In this paper, a multiobjective adaptive surrogate modeling-based optimization (MO-ASMO) algorithm is introduced that aims to reduce computational cost while maintaining optimization effectiveness. Geophysical dynamic models usually have a prior parameterization scheme derived from the physical processes involved, and our goal is to improve all of the objectives by parameter calibration. In this study, we developed a method for directing the search processes toward the region that can improve all of the objectives simultaneously. We tested the MO-ASMO algorithm against NSGA-II and SUMO with 13 test functions and a land surface model - the Common Land Model (CoLM). The results demonstrated the effectiveness and efficiency of MO-ASMO.

  16. Flight dynamics modeling of a small ducted fan aerial vehicle based on parameter identification

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Zhengjie; Liu Zhijun; Fan Ningjun; Guo Meifang

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a simple and useful modeling method to acquire a dynamics model of an aerial vehicle containing unknown parameters using mechanism modeling, and then to design different identification experiments to identify the parameters based on the sources and features of its unknown parameters. Based on the mathematical model of the aerial vehicle acquired by modeling and identification, a design for the structural parameters of the attitude control system is carried out, and the results of the attitude control flaps are verified by simulation experiments and flight tests of the aerial vehicle. Results of the mathematical simulation and flight tests show that the mathematical model acquired using parameter identification is comparatively accurate and of clear mechanics, and can be used as the reference and basis for the structural design.

  17. Fatigue reliability based on residual strength model with hybrid uncertain parameters

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jun Wang; Zhi-Ping Qiu

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to evaluate the fatigue reliability with hybrid uncertain parameters based on a residual strength model.By solving the non-probabilistic setbased reliability problem and analyzing the reliability with randomness,the fatigue reliability with hybrid parameters can be obtained.The presented hybrid model can adequately consider all uncertainties affecting the fatigue reliability with hybrid uncertain parameters.A comparison among the presented hybrid model,non-probabilistic set-theoretic model and the conventional random model is made through two typical numerical examples.The results show that the presented hybrid model,which can ensure structural security,is effective and practical.

  18. Plant parameters for plant functional groups of western rangelands to enable process-based simulation modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regional environmental assessments with process-based models require realistic estimates of plant parameters for the primary plant functional groups in the region. “Functional group” in this context is an operational term, based on similarities in plant type and in plant parameter values. Likewise...

  19. Parameter Estimation of Jelinski-Moranda Model Based on Weighted Nonlinear Least Squares and Heteroscedasticity

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Jingwei; Liu, Yi; Xu, Meizhi

    2015-01-01

    Parameter estimation method of Jelinski-Moranda (JM) model based on weighted nonlinear least squares (WNLS) is proposed. The formulae of resolving the parameter WNLS estimation (WNLSE) are derived, and the empirical weight function and heteroscedasticity problem are discussed. The effects of optimization parameter estimation selection based on maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method, least squares estimation (LSE) method and weighted nonlinear least squares estimation (WNLSE) method are al...

  20. [Determination of Virtual Surgery Mass Point Spring Model Parameters Based on Genetic Algorithms].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ying; Hu, Xuyi; Zhu, Qiguang

    2015-12-01

    Mass point-spring model is one of the commonly used models in virtual surgery. However, its model parameters have no clear physical meaning, and it is hard to set the parameter conveniently. We, therefore, proposed a method based on genetic algorithm to determine the mass-spring model parameters. Computer-aided tomography (CAT) data were used to determine the mass value of the particle, and stiffness and damping coefficient were obtained by genetic algorithm. We used the difference between the reference deformation and virtual deformation as the fitness function to get the approximate optimal solution of the model parameters. Experimental results showed that this method could obtain an approximate optimal solution of spring parameters with lower cost, and could accurately reproduce the effect of the actual deformation model as well.

  1. Parameter estimation based synchronization for an epidemic model with application to tuberculosis in Cameroon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bowong, Samuel, E-mail: sbowong@gmail.co [Laboratory of Applied Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Faculty of Science, University of Douala, P.O. Box 24157 Douala (Cameroon); Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegraphenberg A 31, 14412 Potsdam (Germany); Kurths, Jurgen [Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegraphenberg A 31, 14412 Potsdam (Germany); Department of Physics, Humboldt Universitat zu Berlin, 12489 Berlin (Germany)

    2010-10-04

    We propose a method based on synchronization to identify the parameters and to estimate the underlying variables for an epidemic model from real data. We suggest an adaptive synchronization method based on observer approach with an effective guidance parameter to update rule design only from real data. In order, to validate the identifiability and estimation results, numerical simulations of a tuberculosis (TB) model using real data of the region of Center in Cameroon are performed to estimate the parameters and variables. This study shows that some tools of synchronization of nonlinear systems can help to deal with the parameter and state estimation problem in the field of epidemiology. We exploit the close link between mathematical modelling, structural identifiability analysis, synchronization, and parameter estimation to obtain biological insights into the system modelled.

  2. Parameter estimation based synchronization for an epidemic model with application to tuberculosis in Cameroon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowong, Samuel; Kurths, Jurgen

    2010-10-01

    We propose a method based on synchronization to identify the parameters and to estimate the underlying variables for an epidemic model from real data. We suggest an adaptive synchronization method based on observer approach with an effective guidance parameter to update rule design only from real data. In order, to validate the identifiability and estimation results, numerical simulations of a tuberculosis (TB) model using real data of the region of Center in Cameroon are performed to estimate the parameters and variables. This study shows that some tools of synchronization of nonlinear systems can help to deal with the parameter and state estimation problem in the field of epidemiology. We exploit the close link between mathematical modelling, structural identifiability analysis, synchronization, and parameter estimation to obtain biological insights into the system modelled.

  3. APPLICATION OF ARCHITECTURE-BASED NEURAL NETWORKS IN MODELING AND PARAMETER OPTIMIZATION OF HYDRAULIC BUMPER

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yang Haiwei; Zhan Yongqi; Qiao Junwei; Shi Guanglin

    2003-01-01

    The dynamic working process of 52SFZ-140-207B type of hydraulic bumper is analyzed. The modeling method using architecture-based neural networks is introduced. Using this modeling method, the dynamic model of the hydraulic bumper is established; Based on this model the structural parameters of the hydraulic bumper are optimized with Genetic algorithm. The result shows that the performance of the dynamic model is close to that of the hydraulic bumper, and the dynamic performance of the hydraulic bumper is improved through parameter optimization.

  4. Application of Multi-Step Parameter Estimation Method Based on Optimization Algorithm in Sacramento Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gang Zhang

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The Sacramento model is widely utilized in hydrological forecast, of which the accuracy and performance are primarily determined by the model parameters, indicating the key role of parameter estimation. This paper presents a multi-step parameter estimation method, which divides the parameter estimation of Sacramento model into three steps and realizes optimization step by step. We firstly use the immune clonal selection algorithm (ICSA to solve the non-liner objective function of parameter estimation, and compare the parameter calibration result of ideal artificial data with Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE-UA, Parallel Genetic Algorithm (PGA, and Serial Master-slaver Swarms Shuffling Evolution Algorithm Based on Particle Swarms Optimization (SMSE-PSO. The comparison result shows that ICSA has the best convergence, efficiency and precision. Then we apply ICSA to the parameter estimation of single-step and multi-step Sacramento model and simulate 32 floods based on application examples of Dongyang and Tantou river basins for validation. It is clearly shown that the results of multi-step method based on ICSA show higher accuracy and 100% qualified rate, indicating its higher precision and reliability, which has great potential to improve Sacramento model and hydrological forecast.

  5. Damage constitutive model for strain-softening rock based on normal distribution and its parameter determination

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    Firstly, using the damage model for rock based on Lemaitre hypothesis about strain equivalence, a new technique for measuring strength of rock micro-cells by adopting the Mohr-Coulomb criterion was developed, and a statistical damage evolution equation was established based on the property that strength of micro-cells is consistent with normal distribution function, through discussing the characteristics of random distributions for strength of micro-cells, then a statistical damage constitutive model that can simulate the full process of rock strain softening under specific confining pressure was set up. Secondly, a new method to determine the model parameters which can be applied to the situations under different confining pressures was proposed, by deeply studying the relations between the model parameters and characteristic parameters of the full stress-strain curve under different confining pressures. Therefore, a unified statistical damage constitutive model for rock softening which can reflect the effect of different confining pressures was set up. This model makes the physical property of model parameters explicit, contains only conventional mechanical parameters, and leads its application more convenient. Finally, the rationality of this model and its parameters-determining method were identified via comparative analyses between theoretical and experimental curves.

  6. Lumped-parameter models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, M.

    2006-12-15

    A lumped-parameter model represents the frequency dependent soil-structure interaction of a massless foundation placed on or embedded into an unbounded soil domain. In this technical report the steps of establishing a lumped-parameter model are presented. Following sections are included in this report: Static and dynamic formulation, Simple lumped-parameter models and Advanced lumped-parameter models. (au)

  7. A Fundamental Parameter-Based Calibration Model for an Intrinsic Germanium X-Ray Fluorescence Spectrometer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Leif Højslet; Pind, Niels

    1982-01-01

    secondary target a number of relative calibration constants are calculated on the basis of knowledge of the irradiation geometry, the detector specifications, and tabulated fundamental physical parameters. The absolute calibration of the spectrometer is performed by measuring one pure element standard per......A matrix-independent fundamental parameter-based calibration model for an energy-dispersive X-ray fluorescence spectrometer has been developed. This model, which is part of a fundamental parameter approach quantification method, accounts for both the excitation and detection probability. For each...

  8. Complementarity of flux- and biometric-based data to constrain parameters in a terrestrial carbon model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenggang Du

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available To improve models for accurate projections, data assimilation, an emerging statistical approach to combine models with data, have recently been developed to probe initial conditions, parameters, data content, response functions and model uncertainties. Quantifying how many information contents are contained in different data streams is essential to predict future states of ecosystems and the climate. This study uses a data assimilation approach to examine the information contents contained in flux- and biometric-based data to constrain parameters in a terrestrial carbon (C model, which includes canopy photosynthesis and vegetation–soil C transfer submodels. Three assimilation experiments were constructed with either net ecosystem exchange (NEE data only or biometric data only [including foliage and woody biomass, litterfall, soil organic C (SOC and soil respiration], or both NEE and biometric data to constrain model parameters by a probabilistic inversion application. The results showed that NEE data mainly constrained parameters associated with gross primary production (GPP and ecosystem respiration (RE but were almost invalid for C transfer coefficients, while biometric data were more effective in constraining C transfer coefficients than other parameters. NEE and biometric data constrained about 26% (6 and 30% (7 of a total of 23 parameters, respectively, but their combined application constrained about 61% (14 of all parameters. The complementarity of NEE and biometric data was obvious in constraining most of parameters. The poor constraint by only NEE or biometric data was probably attributable to either the lack of long-term C dynamic data or errors from measurements. Overall, our results suggest that flux- and biometric-based data, containing different processes in ecosystem C dynamics, have different capacities to constrain parameters related to photosynthesis and C transfer coefficients, respectively. Multiple data sources could also

  9. MODEL JARINGAN SYARAF TIRUAN UNTUK MEMPREDIKSI PARAMETER KUALITAS TOMAT BERDASARKAN PARAMETER WARNA RGB (An artificial neural network model for predicting tomato quality parameters based on color

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rudiati Evi Masithoh

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Artificial neural networks (ANN was used to predict the quality parameters of tomato, i.e. Brix, citric acid, total carotene, and vitamin C. ANN was developed from Red Green Blue (RGB image data of tomatoes measured using a developed computer vision system (CVS. Qualitative analysis of tomato compositions were obtained from laboratory experiments. ANN model was based on a feedforward backpropagation network with different training functions, namely gradient descent (traingd, gradient descent with the resilient backpropagation (trainrp, Broyden, Fletcher, Goldfrab and Shanno (BFGS quasi-Newton (trainbfg, as well as Levenberg Marquardt (trainlm.  The network structure using logsig and linear (purelin activation function at the hidden and output layer, respectively, and using  the trainlm as a training function resulted in the best performance. Correlation coefficient (r of training and validation process were 0.97 - 0.99 and 0.92 - 0.99, whereas the MAE values ​​ranged from 0.01 to 0.23 and 0.03 to 0.59, respectively. Keywords: Artificial neural network, trainlm, tomato, RGB   Jaringan syaraf tiruan (JST digunakan untuk memprediksi parameter kualitas tomat, yaitu Brix, asam sitrat, karoten total, dan vitamin C. JST dikembangkan dari data Red Green Blue (RGB  citra tomat yang diukur menggunakan computer vision system. Data kualitas tomat diperoleh dari analisis di laboratorium. Struktur model JST didasarkan pada jaringan feedforward backpropagation dengan berbagai fungsi pelatihan, yaitu gradient descent (traingd, gradient descent dengan resilient backpropagation (trainrp, Broyden, Fletcher, Goldfrab dan Shanno (BFGS quasi-Newton (trainbfg, serta Levenberg Marquardt (trainlm. Fungsi pelatihan yang terbaik adalah menggunakan trainlm, serta pada struktur jaringan digunakan fungsi aktivasi logsig pada lapisan tersembunyi dan linier (purelin pada lapisan keluaran. dengan 1000 epoch. Nilai koefisien korelasi (r pada tahap pelatihan dan validasi

  10. SBML-PET-MPI: a parallel parameter estimation tool for Systems Biology Markup Language based models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zi, Zhike

    2011-04-01

    Parameter estimation is crucial for the modeling and dynamic analysis of biological systems. However, implementing parameter estimation is time consuming and computationally demanding. Here, we introduced a parallel parameter estimation tool for Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML)-based models (SBML-PET-MPI). SBML-PET-MPI allows the user to perform parameter estimation and parameter uncertainty analysis by collectively fitting multiple experimental datasets. The tool is developed and parallelized using the message passing interface (MPI) protocol, which provides good scalability with the number of processors. SBML-PET-MPI is freely available for non-commercial use at http://www.bioss.uni-freiburg.de/cms/sbml-pet-mpi.html or http://sites.google.com/site/sbmlpetmpi/.

  11. Parameter identification of ZnO surge arrester models based on genetic algorithms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bayadi, Abdelhafid [Laboratoire d' Automatique de Setif, Departement d' Electrotechnique, Faculte des Sciences de l' Ingenieur, Universite Ferhat ABBAS de Setif, Route de Bejaia Setif 19000 (Algeria)

    2008-07-15

    The correct and adequate modelling of ZnO surge arresters characteristics is very important for insulation coordination studies and systems reliability. In this context many researchers addressed considerable efforts to the development of surge arresters models to reproduce the dynamic characteristics observed in their behaviour when subjected to fast front impulse currents. The difficulties with these models reside essentially in the calculation and the adjustment of their parameters. This paper proposes a new technique based on genetic algorithm to obtain the best possible series of parameter values of ZnO surge arresters models. The validity of the predicted parameters is then checked by comparing the predicted results with the experimental results available in the literature. Using the ATP-EMTP package, an application of the arrester model on network system studies is presented and discussed. (author)

  12. Location-based Mobile Relay Selection and Impact of Inaccurate Path Loss Model Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jimmy Jessen; Madsen, Tatiana Kozlova; Schwefel, Hans-Peter

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we propose a relay selection scheme which uses collected location information together with a path loss model for relay selection, and analyze the performance impact of mobility and different error causes on this scheme. Performance is evaluated in terms of bit error rate...... in these situations. As the location-based scheme relies on a path loss model to estimate link qualities and select relays, the sensitivity with respect to inaccurate estimates of the unknown path loss model parameters is investigated. The parameter ranges that result in useful performance were found...

  13. Modeling of engine parameters for condition-based maintenance of the MTU series 2000 diesel engine

    OpenAIRE

    Yue, Siew Peng

    2016-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited Condition-based maintenance (CBM) entails performing maintenance only when needed to save on resources and cost. Formulating a model that reflects the behavior of the marine diesel engine in its normal operating conditions would aid in making predictions of the behavior of a condition monitoring parameter. Modeling for CBM is a data-dependent process. Data acquisition, processing, and analysis are required for modeling the behavior of ...

  14. Parameter uncertainty, sensitivity, and sediment coupling in bioenergetics-based food web models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barron, M.G.; Cacela, D.; Beltman, D. [Hagler Bailly, Boulder, CO (United States)

    1995-12-31

    A bioenergetics-based food web model was developed and calibrated using measured PCB water and sediment concentrations in two Great Lakes food webs: Green Bay, Michigan and Lake Ontario. The model incorporated functional based trophic levels and sediment, water, and food chain exposures of PCBs to aquatic biota. Sensitivity analysis indicated the parameters with the greatest influence on PCBs in top predators were lipid content of plankton and benthos, planktivore assimilation efficiency, Kow, prey selection, and ambient temperature. Sediment-associated PCBs were estimated to contribute over 90% of PCBs in benthivores and less than 50% in piscivores. Ranges of PCB concentrations in top predators estimated by Monte Carlo simulation incorporating parameter uncertainty were within one order of magnitude of modal values. Model applications include estimation of exceedences of human and ecological thresholds. The results indicate that point estimates from bioenergetics-based food web models have substantial uncertainty that should be considered in regulatory and scientific applications.

  15. Mass-based hygroscopicity parameter interaction model and measurement of atmospheric aerosol water uptake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Mikhailov

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study we derive and apply a mass-based hygroscopicity parameter interaction model for efficient description of concentration-dependent water uptake by atmospheric aerosol particles with complex chemical composition. The model approach builds on the single hygroscopicity parameter model of Petters and Kreidenweis (2007. We introduce an observable mass-based hygroscopicity parameter κm which can be deconvoluted into a dilute hygroscopicity parameterm0 and additional self- and cross-interaction parameters describing non-ideal solution behavior and concentration dependencies of single- and multi-component systems.

    For reference aerosol samples of sodium chloride and ammonium sulfate, the κm-interaction model (KIM captures the experimentally observed concentration and humidity dependence of the hygroscopicity parameter and is in good agreement with an accurate reference model based on the Pitzer ion-interaction approach (Aerosol Inorganic Model, AIM. Experimental results for pure organic particles (malonic acid, levoglucosan and for mixed organic-inorganic particles (malonic acid – ammonium sulfate are also well reproduced by KIM, taking into account apparent or equilibrium solubilities for stepwise or gradual deliquescence and efflorescence transitions.

    The mixed organic-inorganic particles as well as atmospheric aerosol samples exhibit three distinctly different regimes of hygroscopicity: (I a quasi-eutonic deliquescence & efflorescence regime at low-humidity where substances are just partly dissolved and exist also in a non-dissolved phase, (II a gradual deliquescence & efflorescence regime at intermediate humidity where different solutes undergo gradual dissolution or solidification in the aqueous phase; and (III a dilute regime at high humidity where the solutes are fully dissolved approaching their dilute hygroscopicity.

    For atmospheric aerosol samples

  16. Simulation of pedestrian evacuation based on an improved dynamic parameter model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhu Nuo; Jia Bin; Shao Chun-Fu; Yue Hao

    2012-01-01

    An improved dynamic parameter model is presented based on cellular automata.The dynamic parameters,including direction parameter,empty parameter,and cognition parameter,are formulated to simplify tactically the process of making decisions for pedestrians.The improved model reflects the judgement of pedestrians on surrounding conditions and the action of choosing or decision.According to the two-dimensional cellular automaton Moore neighborhood we establish the pedestrian moving rule,and carry out corresponding simulations of pedestrian evacuation.The improved model considers the impact of pedestrian density near exits on the evacuation process.Simulated and experimental results demonstrate that the improvement makes sense due to the fact that except for the spatial distance to exits,people also choose an exit according to the pedestrian density around exits.The impact factors α,β,and γ are introduced to describe transition payoff,and their optimal values are determined through simulation.Moreover,the effects of pedestrian distribution,pedestrian density,and the width of exits on the evacuation time are discussed.The optimal exit layout,i.e.,the optimal position and width,is offered.The comparison between the simulated results obtained with the improved model and that from a previous model and experiments indicates that the improved model can reproduce experimental results well.Thus,it has great significance for further study,and important instructional meaning for pedestrian evacuation so as to reduce the number of casualties.

  17. Structural observability analysis and EKF based parameter estimation of building heating models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.W.U. Perera

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Research for enhanced energy-efficient buildings has been given much recognition in the recent years owing to their high energy consumptions. Increasing energy needs can be precisely controlled by practicing advanced controllers for building Heating, Ventilation, and Air-Conditioning (HVAC systems. Advanced controllers require a mathematical building heating model to operate, and these models need to be accurate and computationally efficient. One main concern associated with such models is the accurate estimation of the unknown model parameters. This paper presents the feasibility of implementing a simplified building heating model and the computation of physical parameters using an off-line approach. Structural observability analysis is conducted using graph-theoretic techniques to analyze the observability of the developed system model. Then Extended Kalman Filter (EKF algorithm is utilized for parameter estimates using the real measurements of a single-zone building. The simulation-based results confirm that even with a simple model, the EKF follows the state variables accurately. The predicted parameters vary depending on the inputs and disturbances.

  18. Parameter identification theory of a complex model based on global optimization method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    With the development of computer technology and numerical simulation technol- ogy, computer aided engineering (CAE) technology has been widely applied to many fields. One of the main obstacles, which hinder the further application of CAE technology, is how to successfully identify the parameters of the selected model. An elementary framework for parameter identification of a complex model is pro-vided in this paper. The framework includes the construction of objective function, the design of the optimization method and the evaluation of the identified results, etc. The parameter identification process is described in this framework, taking the parameter identification of the superplastic constitutive model considering grain growth for Ti-6Al-4V at 927℃ as an example. The objective function is the weighted quadratic sums of the difference between the experimental and computational data for the stress-strain relationship and the grain growth relationship; the designed optimization method is a hybrid global optimization method, which is based on the feature of the objective function and incorporates the strengths of genetic algo-rithm (GA), the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm and the augmented Gauss-Newton algorithm. The reliability evaluation of parameter identification result is made through the comparison between the calculated and experimental results and be-tween the theoretical values of the parameters and the identified ones.

  19. A rule based fuzzy model for the prediction of petrophysical rock parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Finol, J.; Jing, X.D. [T.H. Huxley School of Environment, Earth Sciences and Engineering, Imperial College, Prince Consort Road, SW7 2BP London (United Kingdom); Ke Guo, Y. [Fujitsu Parallel Computing Centre, Department of Computing, Imperial College, SW7 2BZ London (United Kingdom)

    2001-04-01

    A new approach for the prediction of petrophysical rock parameters based on a rule-based fuzzy model is presented. The rule-based fuzzy model corresponds to the Takagi-Sugeno-Kang method of fuzzy reasoning proposed by Sugeno and his co-authors. This fuzzy model is defined by a set of fuzzy implications with linear consequent parts, each of which establishes a local linear input-output relationship between the variables of the model. In this approach, a fuzzy clustering algorithm is combined with the least-square approximation method to identify the structure and parameters of the fuzzy model from sets of numerical data. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed fuzzy modeling method, two examples are developed using core and electrical log data from three oil wells in Ceuta Field, Lake Maracaibo Basin. The numerical results of the fuzzy modelling method are compared with the results of a conventional linear regression model. It is shown that the fuzzy modeling approach is not only more accurate than the conventional regression approach but also provides some qualitative information about the underlying complexities of the porous system.

  20. Coastal aquifer management under parameter uncertainty: Ensemble surrogate modeling based simulation-optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janardhanan, S.; Datta, B.

    2011-12-01

    Surrogate models are widely used to develop computationally efficient simulation-optimization models to solve complex groundwater management problems. Artificial intelligence based models are most often used for this purpose where they are trained using predictor-predictand data obtained from a numerical simulation model. Most often this is implemented with the assumption that the parameters and boundary conditions used in the numerical simulation model are perfectly known. However, in most practical situations these values are uncertain. Under these circumstances the application of such approximation surrogates becomes limited. In our study we develop a surrogate model based coupled simulation optimization methodology for determining optimal pumping strategies for coastal aquifers considering parameter uncertainty. An ensemble surrogate modeling approach is used along with multiple realization optimization. The methodology is used to solve a multi-objective coastal aquifer management problem considering two conflicting objectives. Hydraulic conductivity and the aquifer recharge are considered as uncertain values. Three dimensional coupled flow and transport simulation model FEMWATER is used to simulate the aquifer responses for a number of scenarios corresponding to Latin hypercube samples of pumping and uncertain parameters to generate input-output patterns for training the surrogate models. Non-parametric bootstrap sampling of this original data set is used to generate multiple data sets which belong to different regions in the multi-dimensional decision and parameter space. These data sets are used to train and test multiple surrogate models based on genetic programming. The ensemble of surrogate models is then linked to a multi-objective genetic algorithm to solve the pumping optimization problem. Two conflicting objectives, viz, maximizing total pumping from beneficial wells and minimizing the total pumping from barrier wells for hydraulic control of

  1. A priori parameter estimates for global hydrological modeling using geographically based information: Application of the CREST hydrologic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Z.; Zhang, K.; Xue, X.; Huang, J.; Hong, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Floods are among the most common natural disasters with worldwide impacts that cause significant humanitarian and economic negative consequences. The increasing availability of satellite-based precipitation estimates and geospatial datasets with global coverage and improved temporal resolutions has enhanced our capability of forecasting floods and monitoring water resources across the world. This study presents an approach combing physically based and empirical methods for a-priori parameter estimates and a parameter dataset for the Coupled Routing and Excess Storage (CREST) hydrological model at the global scale. This approach takes advantage of geographic information such as topography, land cover, and soil properties to derive the distributed parameter values across the world. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the utility of a-priori parameter estimates to improve the performance of the CREST distributed hydrologic model and enable its prediction at poorly gauged or ungauged catchments. Using the CREST hydrologic model, several typical river basins in different continents were selected to serve as test areas. The results show that the simulated daily stream flows using the parameters derived from geographically based information outperform the results using the lumped parameters. Overall, this early study highlights that a priori parameter estimates for hydrologic model warrants improved model predictive capability in ungauged basins at regional to global scales.

  2. Development of class model based on blood biochemical parameters as a diagnostic tool of PSE meat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, Daofeng; Zhou, Xu; Yang, Feng; Tian, Shiyi; Zhang, Xiaojun; Ma, Lin; Han, Jianzhong

    2017-06-01

    A fast, sensitive and effective method based on the blood biochemical parameters for the detection of PSE meat was developed in this study. A total of 200 pigs were slaughtered in the same slaughterhouse. Meat quality was evaluated by measuring pH, electrical conductivity and color at 45min, 2h and 24h after slaughtering in M. longissimus thoracis et lumborum (LD). Blood biochemical parameters were determined in blood samples collected during carcass bleeding. Principal component analysis (PCA) biplot showed that high levels of exsanguination Creatine Kinase, Lactate Dehydrogenase, Aspertate aminotransferase, blood glucose and lactate were associated with the PSE meat, and the five biochemical parameters were found to be good indicators of PSE meat Discriminant function analysis (DFA) was able to clearly identify PSE meat using the five biochemical parameters as input data, and the class model is an effective diagnostic tool in pigs which can be used to detect the PSE meat and reduce economic loss for the company.

  3. Parameter Estimation of a Delay Time Model of Wearing Parts Based on Objective Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Tang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The wearing parts of a system have a very high failure frequency, making it necessary to carry out continual functional inspections and maintenance to protect the system from unscheduled downtime. This allows for the collection of a large amount of maintenance data. Taking the unique characteristics of the wearing parts into consideration, we establish their respective delay time models in ideal inspection cases and nonideal inspection cases. The model parameters are estimated entirely using the collected maintenance data. Then, a likelihood function of all renewal events is derived based on their occurring probability functions, and the model parameters are calculated with the maximum likelihood function method, which is solved by the CRM. Finally, using two wearing parts from the oil and gas drilling industry as examples—the filter element and the blowout preventer rubber core—the parameters of the distribution function of the initial failure time and the delay time for each example are estimated, and their distribution functions are obtained. Such parameter estimation based on objective data will contribute to the optimization of the reasonable function inspection interval and will also provide some theoretical models to support the integrity management of equipment or systems.

  4. A new LPV modeling approach using PCA-based parameter set mapping to design a PSS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jabali, Mohammad B Abolhasani; Kazemi, Mohammad H

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a new methodology for the modeling and control of power systems based on an uncertain polytopic linear parameter-varying (LPV) approach using parameter set mapping with principle component analysis (PCA). An LPV representation of the power system dynamics is generated by linearization of its differential-algebraic equations about the transient operating points for some given specific faults containing the system nonlinear properties. The time response of the output signal in the transient state plays the role of the scheduling signal that is used to construct the LPV model. A set of sample points of the dynamic response is formed to generate an initial LPV model. PCA-based parameter set mapping is used to reduce the number of models and generate a reduced LPV model. This model is used to design a robust pole placement controller to assign the poles of the power system in a linear matrix inequality (LMI) region, such that the response of the power system has a proper damping ratio for all of the different oscillation modes. The proposed scheme is applied to controller synthesis of a power system stabilizer, and its performance is compared with a tuned standard conventional PSS using nonlinear simulation of a multi-machine power network. The results under various conditions show the robust performance of the proposed controller.

  5. A Bayesian-based multilevel factorial analysis method for analyzing parameter uncertainty of hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Y. R.; Li, Y. P.; Huang, G. H.; Zhang, J. L.; Fan, Y. R.

    2017-10-01

    In this study, a Bayesian-based multilevel factorial analysis (BMFA) method is developed to assess parameter uncertainties and their effects on hydrological model responses. In BMFA, Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm is employed to approximate the posterior distributions of model parameters with Bayesian inference; factorial analysis (FA) technique is used for measuring the specific variations of hydrological responses in terms of posterior distributions to investigate the individual and interactive effects of parameters on model outputs. BMFA is then applied to a case study of the Jinghe River watershed in the Loess Plateau of China to display its validity and applicability. The uncertainties of four sensitive parameters, including soil conservation service runoff curve number to moisture condition II (CN2), soil hydraulic conductivity (SOL_K), plant available water capacity (SOL_AWC), and soil depth (SOL_Z), are investigated. Results reveal that (i) CN2 has positive effect on peak flow, implying that the concentrated rainfall during rainy season can cause infiltration-excess surface flow, which is an considerable contributor to peak flow in this watershed; (ii) SOL_K has positive effect on average flow, implying that the widely distributed cambisols can lead to medium percolation capacity; (iii) the interaction between SOL_AWC and SOL_Z has noticeable effect on the peak flow and their effects are dependent upon each other, which discloses that soil depth can significant influence the processes of plant uptake of soil water in this watershed. Based on the above findings, the significant parameters and the relationship among uncertain parameters can be specified, such that hydrological model's capability for simulating/predicting water resources of the Jinghe River watershed can be improved.

  6. Characterization of solute transport parameters in leach ore:inverse modeling based on column experiments

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Sheng PENG

    2009-01-01

    Heap leaching is essentially a process in which metals are extracted from mine ores with lixiant. For a better understanding and modeling of this process, solute transport parameters are required to characterize the solute transport system of the leach heap. For porous media like leach ores, which contain substantial gravelly particles and have a broad range of particle size distributions, traditional small-scale laboratory experimental apparatus is not appropriate. In this paper, a 2.44m long, 0.3 m inner diameter column was used for tracer test with boron as the tracer. Tracer tests were conducted for 2 bulk densities (1.92 and 1.62g/cm3) and 2 irrigation rates (2 and 5 L/(mE. h-i)). Inverse modeling with two-region transport model using computer code CXTFIT was conducted based on the measured breakthrough curves to estimate the transport parameters. Fitting was focused on three parameters: dispersion coefficient D, partition coefficient r, and mass transfer coefficient ω. The results turned out to fall within reasonable ranges. Sensitivity analysis was conducted for the three parameters and showed that the order of sensitivity is β > ω > D. In addition, scaling of these parameters was discussed and applied to a real scale heap leach to predict the tracer breakthrough.

  7. Integral-based identification of patient specific parameters for a minimal cardiac model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hann, C E; Chase, J G; Shaw, G M

    2006-02-01

    A minimal cardiac model has been developed which accurately captures the essential dynamics of the cardiovascular system (CVS). However, identifying patient specific parameters with the limited measurements often available, hinders the clinical application of the model for diagnosis and therapy selection. This paper presents an integral-based parameter identification method for fast, accurate identification of patient specific parameters using limited measured data. The integral method turns a previously non-linear and non-convex optimization problem into a linear and convex identification problem. The model includes ventricular interaction and physiological valve dynamics. A healthy human state and four disease states, valvular stenosis, pulmonary embolism, cardiogenic shock and septic shock are used to test the method. Parameters for the healthy and disease states are accurately identified using only discretized flows into and out of the two cardiac chambers, the minimum and maximum volumes of the left and right ventricles, and the pressure waveforms through the aorta and pulmonary artery. These input values can be readily obtained non-invasively using echo-cardiography and ultra-sound, or invasively via catheters that are often used in Intensive Care. The method enables rapid identification of model parameters to match a particular patient condition in clinical real time (3-5 min) to within a mean value of 4-10% in the presence of 5-15% uniformly distributed measurement noise. The specific changes made to simulate each disease state are correctly identified in each case to within 10% without false identification of any other patient specific parameters. Clinically, the resulting patient specific model can then be used to assist medical staff in understanding, diagnosis and treatment selection.

  8. Development of optimization model for sputtering process parameter based on gravitational search algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norlina, M. S.; Diyana, M. S. Nor; Mazidah, P.; Rusop, M.

    2016-07-01

    In the RF magnetron sputtering process, the desirable layer properties are largely influenced by the process parameters and conditions. If the quality of the thin film has not reached up to its intended level, the experiments have to be repeated until the desirable quality has been met. This research is proposing Gravitational Search Algorithm (GSA) as the optimization model to reduce the time and cost to be spent in the thin film fabrication. The optimization model's engine has been developed using Java. The model is developed based on GSA concept, which is inspired by the Newtonian laws of gravity and motion. In this research, the model is expected to optimize four deposition parameters which are RF power, deposition time, oxygen flow rate and substrate temperature. The results have turned out to be promising and it could be concluded that the performance of the model is satisfying in this parameter optimization problem. Future work could compare GSA with other nature based algorithms and test them with various set of data.

  9. Equation-free analysis of agent-based models and systematic parameter determination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Spencer A.; Lloyd, David J. B.; Skeldon, Anne C.

    2016-12-01

    Agent based models (ABM)s are increasingly used in social science, economics, mathematics, biology and computer science to describe time dependent systems in circumstances where a description in terms of equations is difficult. Yet few tools are currently available for the systematic analysis of ABM behaviour. Numerical continuation and bifurcation analysis is a well-established tool for the study of deterministic systems. Recently, equation-free (EF) methods have been developed to extend numerical continuation techniques to systems where the dynamics are described at a microscopic scale and continuation of a macroscopic property of the system is considered. To date, the practical use of EF methods has been limited by; (1) the over-head of application-specific implementation; (2) the laborious configuration of problem-specific parameters; and (3) large ensemble sizes (potentially) leading to computationally restrictive run-times. In this paper we address these issues with our tool for the EF continuation of stochastic systems, which includes algorithms to systematically configuration problem specific parameters and enhance robustness to noise. Our tool is generic and can be applied to any 'black-box' simulator and determines the essential EF parameters prior to EF analysis. Robustness is significantly improved using our convergence-constraint with a corrector-repeat (C3R) method. This algorithm automatically detects outliers based on the dynamics of the underlying system enabling both an order of magnitude reduction in ensemble size and continuation of systems at much higher levels of noise than classical approaches. We demonstrate our method with application to several ABM models, revealing parameter dependence, bifurcation and stability analysis of these complex systems giving a deep understanding of the dynamical behaviour of the models in a way that is not otherwise easily obtainable. In each case we demonstrate our systematic parameter determination stage for

  10. SCAN-based hybrid and double-hybrid density functionals from models without fitted parameters

    OpenAIRE

    Hui, Kerwin; Chai, Jeng-Da

    2015-01-01

    By incorporating the nonempirical SCAN semilocal density functional [Sun, Ruzsinszky, and Perdew, Phys. Rev. Lett. 115, 036402 (2015)] in the underlying expression of four existing hybrid and double-hybrid models, we propose one hybrid (SCAN0) and three double-hybrid (SCAN0-DH, SCAN-QIDH, and SCAN0-2) density functionals, which are free from any fitted parameters. The SCAN-based double-hybrid functionals consistently outperform their parent SCAN semilocal functional for self-interaction probl...

  11. Logic-based models in systems biology: a predictive and parameter-free network analysis method†

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wynn, Michelle L.; Consul, Nikita; Merajver, Sofia D.

    2012-01-01

    Highly complex molecular networks, which play fundamental roles in almost all cellular processes, are known to be dysregulated in a number of diseases, most notably in cancer. As a consequence, there is a critical need to develop practical methodologies for constructing and analysing molecular networks at a systems level. Mathematical models built with continuous differential equations are an ideal methodology because they can provide a detailed picture of a network’s dynamics. To be predictive, however, differential equation models require that numerous parameters be known a priori and this information is almost never available. An alternative dynamical approach is the use of discrete logic-based models that can provide a good approximation of the qualitative behaviour of a biochemical system without the burden of a large parameter space. Despite their advantages, there remains significant resistance to the use of logic-based models in biology. Here, we address some common concerns and provide a brief tutorial on the use of logic-based models, which we motivate with biological examples. PMID:23072820

  12. A software for the estimation of binding parameters of biochemical equilibria based on statistical probability model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisicaro, E; Braibanti, A; Sambasiva Rao, R; Compari, C; Ghiozzi, A; Nageswara Rao, G

    1998-04-01

    An algorithm is proposed for the estimation of binding parameters for the interaction of biologically important macromolecules with smaller ones from electrometric titration data. The mathematical model is based on the representation of equilibria in terms of probability concepts of statistical molecular thermodynamics. The refinement of equilibrium concentrations of the components and estimation of binding parameters (log site constant and cooperativity factor) is performed using singular value decomposition, a chemometric technique which overcomes the general obstacles due to near singularity. The present software is validated with a number of biochemical systems of varying number of sites and cooperativity factors. The effect of random errors of realistic magnitude in experimental data is studied using the simulated primary data for some typical systems. The safe area within which approximate binding parameters ensure convergence has been reported for the non-self starting optimization algorithms.

  13. Analytical Modelling of High Concentrator Photovoltaic Modules Based on Atmospheric Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo F. Fernández

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this paper is to introduce a model to predict the maximum power of a high concentrator photovoltaic module. The model is based on simple mathematical expressions and atmospheric parameters. The maximum power of a HCPV module is estimated as a function of direct normal irradiance, cell temperature, and two spectral corrections based on air mass and aerosol optical depth. In order to check the quality of the model, a HCPV module was measured during one year at a wide range of operating conditions. The new proposed model shows an adequate match between actual and estimated data with a root mean square error (RMSE of 2.67%, a mean absolute error (MAE of 4.23 W, a mean bias error (MBE of around 0%, and a determination coefficient (R2 of 0.99.

  14. Lumped-parameter models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, Morten

    A lumped-parameter model represents the frequency dependent soil-structure interaction of a massless foundation placed on or embedded into an unbounded soil domain. The lumped-parameter model development have been reported by (Wolf 1991b; Wolf 1991a; Wolf and Paronesso 1991; Wolf and Paronesso 19...

  15. Soil erosion model predictions using parent material/soil texture-based parameters compared to using site-specific parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. B. Foltz; W. J. Elliot; N. S. Wagenbrenner

    2011-01-01

    Forested areas disturbed by access roads produce large amounts of sediment. One method to predict erosion and, hence, manage forest roads is the use of physically based soil erosion models. A perceived advantage of a physically based model is that it can be parameterized at one location and applied at another location with similar soil texture or geological parent...

  16. Modal parameter identification under non-stationary ambient excitation based on continuous time AR Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DU XiuLi; WANG FengQuan

    2009-01-01

    A new time-domain modal identification method of linear time-lnvariant system driven by the non-stationary Gaussian random excitation is introduced based on the continuous time AR model.The method can identify physical parameters of the system from response data.In order to identify the parameters of the system, the structural dynamic equation is first transformed into the continuous time AR model, and subsequently written into the forms of observation equation and state equation which is just a stochastic differential equation.Secondly, under the assumption that the uniformly modulated function is approximately equal to a constant matrix in a very short time period, the uniformly modulated func-tion is identified piecewise.Then, we present the exact maximum likelihood estimators of parameters by virtue of the Girsanov theorem.Finally, the modal parameters are identified by eigenanalysis.Nu-merical results show that the method we introduce here not only has high precision and robustness, but also has very high computing efficiency.Therefore, it is suitable for real-time modal identification.

  17. Modal parameter identification under non-stationary ambient excitation based on continuous time AR Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    A new time-domain modal identification method of linear time-invariant system driven by the non-stationary Gaussian random excitation is introduced based on the continuous time AR model. The method can identify physical parameters of the system from response data. In order to identify the parameters of the system, the structural dynamic equation is first transformed into the continuous time AR model, and subsequently written into the forms of observation equation and state equation which is just a stochastic differential equation. Secondly, under the assumption that the uniformly modulated function is approximately equal to a constant matrix in a very short time period, the uniformly modulated function is identified piecewise. Then, we present the exact maximum likelihood estimators of parameters by virtue of the Girsanov theorem. Finally, the modal parameters are identified by eigenanalysis. Numerical results show that the method we introduce here not only has high precision and robustness, but also has very high computing efficiency. Therefore, it is suitable for real-time modal identification.

  18. Towards uncertainty quantification and parameter estimation for Earth system models in a component-based modeling framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peckham, Scott D.; Kelbert, Anna; Hill, Mary C.; Hutton, Eric W. H.

    2016-05-01

    Component-based modeling frameworks make it easier for users to access, configure, couple, run and test numerical models. However, they do not typically provide tools for uncertainty quantification or data-based model verification and calibration. To better address these important issues, modeling frameworks should be integrated with existing, general-purpose toolkits for optimization, parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification. This paper identifies and then examines the key issues that must be addressed in order to make a component-based modeling framework interoperable with general-purpose packages for model analysis. As a motivating example, one of these packages, DAKOTA, is applied to a representative but nontrivial surface process problem of comparing two models for the longitudinal elevation profile of a river to observational data. Results from a new mathematical analysis of the resulting nonlinear least squares problem are given and then compared to results from several different optimization algorithms in DAKOTA.

  19. [Simulation of vegetation indices optimizing under retrieval of vegetation biochemical parameters based on PROSPECT + SAIL model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Ling; Liu, Xiang-Nan; Zhou, Bo-Tian; Liu, Chuan-Hao; Li, Lu-Feng

    2012-12-01

    This study analyzed the sensitivities of three vegetation biochemical parameters [chlorophyll content (Cab), leaf water content (Cw), and leaf area index (LAI)] to the changes of canopy reflectance, with the effects of each parameter on the wavelength regions of canopy reflectance considered, and selected three vegetation indices as the optimization comparison targets of cost function. Then, the Cab, Cw, and LAI were estimated, based on the particle swarm optimization algorithm and PROSPECT + SAIL model. The results showed that retrieval efficiency with vegetation indices as the optimization comparison targets of cost function was better than that with all spectral reflectance. The correlation coefficients (R2) between the measured and estimated values of Cab, Cw, and LAI were 90.8%, 95.7%, and 99.7%, and the root mean square errors of Cab, Cw, and LAI were 4.73 microg x cm(-2), 0.001 g x cm(-2), and 0.08, respectively. It was suggested that to adopt vegetation indices as the optimization comparison targets of cost function could effectively improve the efficiency and precision of the retrieval of biochemical parameters based on PROSPECT + SAIL model.

  20. A model for estimating body shape biological age based on clinical parameters associated with body composition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bae CY

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Chul-Young Bae,1 Young Gon Kang,2 Young-Sung Suh,3 Jee Hye Han,4 Sung-Soo Kim,5 Kyung Won Shim61MediAge Research Center, Seoul, Korea; 2Chaum Power Aging Center, College of Medicine, CHA University, Seoul, Korea; 3Health Promotion Center, Keimyung University Dongsam Medical Center, Daegu, Korea; 4Department of Family Medicine, College of Medicine, Eulji University, Seoul, Korea; 5Department of Family Medicine, College of Medicine, Chungnam National University, Daejeon, Korea; 6Department of Family Medicine, Ewha Womans University Mokdong Hospital, Ewha Womans University, Seoul, KoreaBackground: To date, no studies have attempted to estimate body shape biological age using clinical parameters associated with body composition for the purposes of examining a person's body shape based on their age.Objective: We examined the relations between clinical parameters associated with body composition and chronological age, and proposed a model for estimating the body shape biological age.Methods: The study was conducted in 243,778 subjects aged between 20 and 90 years who received a general medical checkup at health promotion centers at university and community hospitals in Korea from 2004 to 2011.Results: In men, the clinical parameters with the highest correlation to age included the waist-to-hip ratio (r = 0.786, P < 0.001, hip circumference (r = −0.448, P < 0.001, and height (r = −0.377, P < 0.001. In women, the clinical parameters with the highest correlation to age include the waist-to-hip ratio (r = 0.859, P < 0.001, waist circumference (r = 0.580, P < 0.001, and hip circumference (r = 0.520, P < 0.001. To estimate the optimal body shape biological age based on clinical parameters associated with body composition, we performed a multiple regression analysis. In a model estimating the body shape biological age, the coefficient of determination (R2 was 0.71 in men and 0.76 in women.Conclusion: Our model for estimating body shape biological age

  1. Robust Parameter Design for Agent-Based Simulation Models With Application in a Cultural Geography Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-01

    Ajzen , I. (2006). Theory of planned behavior . Retrieved May 24, 2010, from http://people.umass.edu/aizen/tpb.html Alt, J. K., Jackson, L. A., Hudak...Cultural Geography, Agent-Based Model (ABM), Irregular Warfare (IW), Theory of planned Behavior (TpB), Baysian Belief Nets (BBN), Counterinsurgency...Strategic Multi-layered Assessment SSTR Security, Stability, Transition and Reconstruction Operations TPB Theory of Planned Behavior TRAC-MTRY

  2. Analysis of direct contact membrane distillation based on a lumped-parameter dynamic predictive model

    KAUST Repository

    Karam, Ayman M.

    2016-10-03

    Membrane distillation (MD) is an emerging technology that has a great potential for sustainable water desalination. In order to pave the way for successful commercialization of MD-based water desalination techniques, adequate and accurate dynamical models of the process are essential. This paper presents the predictive capabilities of a lumped-parameter dynamic model for direct contact membrane distillation (DCMD) and discusses the results under wide range of steady-state and dynamic conditions. Unlike previous studies, the proposed model captures the time response of the spacial temperature distribution along the flow direction. It also directly solves for the local temperatures at the membrane interfaces, which allows to accurately model and calculate local flux values along with other intrinsic variables of great influence on the process, like the temperature polarization coefficient (TPC). The proposed model is based on energy and mass conservation principles and analogy between thermal and electrical systems. Experimental data was collected to validated the steady-state and dynamic responses of the model. The obtained results shows great agreement with the experimental data. The paper discusses the results of several simulations under various conditions to optimize the DCMD process efficiency and analyze its response. This demonstrates some potential applications of the proposed model to carry out scale up and design studies. © 2016

  3. Individual based modeling and parameter estimation for a Lotka-Volterra system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waniewski, J; Jedruch, W

    1999-03-15

    Stochastic component, inevitable in biological systems, makes problematic the estimation of the model parameters from a single sequence of measurements, despite the complete knowledge of the system. We studied the problem of parameter estimation using individual-based computer simulations of a 'Lotka-Volterra world'. Two kinds (species) of particles--X (preys) and Y (predators)--moved on a sphere according to deterministic rules and at the collision (interaction) of X and Y the particle X was changed to a new particle Y. Birth of preys and death of predators were simulated by addition of X and removal of Y, respectively, according to exponential probability distributions. With this arrangement of the system, the numbers of particles of each kind might be described by the Lotka-Volterra equations. The simulations of the system with low (200-400 particles on average) number of individuals showed unstable oscillations of the population size. In some simulation runs one of the species became extinct. Nevertheless, the oscillations had some generic properties (e.g. mean, in one simulation run, oscillation period, mean ratio of the amplitudes of the consecutive maxima of X and Y numbers, etc.) characteristic for the solutions of the Lotka-Volterra equations. This observation made it possible to estimate the four parameters of the Lotka-Volterra model with high accuracy and good precision. The estimation was performed using the integral form of the Lotka-Volterra equations and two parameter linear regression for each oscillation cycle separately. We conclude that in spite of the irregular time course of the number of individuals in each population due to stochastic intraspecies component, the generic features of the simulated system evolution can provide enough information for quantitative estimation of the system parameters.

  4. Linear Parameter Varying Model Identification for Control of Rotorcraft-based UAV

    CERN Document Server

    Budiyono, Agus

    2008-01-01

    A rotorcraft-based unmanned aerial vehicle exhibits more complex properties compared to its full-size counterparts due to its increased sensitivity to control inputs and disturbances and higher bandwidth of its dynamics. As an aerial vehicle with vertical take-off and landing capability, the helicopter specifically poses a difficult problem of transition between forward flight and unstable hover and vice versa. The LPV control technique explicitly takes into account the change in performance due to the real-time parameter variations. The technique therefore theoretically guarantees the performance and robustness over the entire operating envelope. In this study, we investigate a new approach implementing model identification for use in the LPV control framework. The identification scheme employs recursive least square technique implemented on the LPV system represented by dynamics of helicopter during a transition. The airspeed as the scheduling of parameter trajectory is not assumed to vary slowly. The exclu...

  5. Lumpy - an interactive Lumped Parameter Modeling code based on MS Access and MS Excel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suckow, A.

    2012-04-01

    Several tracers for dating groundwater (18O/2H, 3H, CFCs, SF6, 85Kr) need lumped parameter modeling (LPM) to convert measured values into numbers with unit time. Other tracers (T/3He, 39Ar, 14C, 81Kr) allow the computation of apparent ages with a mathematical formula using radioactive decay without defining the age mixture that any groundwater sample represents. Also interpretation of the latter profits significantly from LPM tools that allow forward modeling of input time series to measurable output values assuming different age distributions and mixtures in the sample. This talk presents a Lumped Parameter Modeling code, Lumpy, combining up to two LPMs in parallel. The code is standalone and freeware. It is based on MS Access and Access Basic (AB) and allows using any number of measurements for both input time series and output measurements, with any, not necessarily constant, time resolution. Several tracers, also comprising very different timescales like e.g. the combination of 18O, CFCs and 14C, can be modeled, displayed and fitted simultaneously. Lumpy allows for each of the two parallel models the choice of the following age distributions: Exponential Piston flow Model (EPM), Linear Piston flow Model (LPM), Dispersion Model (DM), Piston flow Model (PM) and Gamma Model (GM). Concerning input functions, Lumpy allows delaying (passage through the unsaturated zone) shifting by a constant value (converting 18O data from a GNIP station to a different altitude), multiplying by a constant value (geochemical reduction of initial 14C) and the definition of a constant input value prior to the input time series (pre-bomb tritium). Lumpy also allows underground tracer production (4He or 39Ar) and the computation of a daughter product (tritiugenic 3He) as well as partial loss of the daughter product (partial re-equilibration of 3He). These additional parameters and the input functions can be defined independently for the two sub-LPMs to represent two different recharge

  6. Quantifying uncertainties in streamflow predictions through signature based inference of hydrological model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenicia, Fabrizio; Reichert, Peter; Kavetski, Dmitri; Albert, Calro

    2016-04-01

    The calibration of hydrological models based on signatures (e.g. Flow Duration Curves - FDCs) is often advocated as an alternative to model calibration based on the full time series of system responses (e.g. hydrographs). Signature based calibration is motivated by various arguments. From a conceptual perspective, calibration on signatures is a way to filter out errors that are difficult to represent when calibrating on the full time series. Such errors may for example occur when observed and simulated hydrographs are shifted, either on the "time" axis (i.e. left or right), or on the "streamflow" axis (i.e. above or below). These shifts may be due to errors in the precipitation input (time or amount), and if not properly accounted in the likelihood function, may cause biased parameter estimates (e.g. estimated model parameters that do not reproduce the recession characteristics of a hydrograph). From a practical perspective, signature based calibration is seen as a possible solution for making predictions in ungauged basins. Where streamflow data are not available, it may in fact be possible to reliably estimate streamflow signatures. Previous research has for example shown how FDCs can be reliably estimated at ungauged locations based on climatic and physiographic influence factors. Typically, the goal of signature based calibration is not the prediction of the signatures themselves, but the prediction of the system responses. Ideally, the prediction of system responses should be accompanied by a reliable quantification of the associated uncertainties. Previous approaches for signature based calibration, however, do not allow reliable estimates of streamflow predictive distributions. Here, we illustrate how the Bayesian approach can be employed to obtain reliable streamflow predictive distributions based on signatures. A case study is presented, where a hydrological model is calibrated on FDCs and additional signatures. We propose an approach where the likelihood

  7. Modeling error and stability of endothelial cytoskeletal membrane parameters based on modeling transendothelial impedance as resistor and capacitor in series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodmer, James E; English, Anthony; Brady, Megan; Blackwell, Ken; Haxhinasto, Kari; Fotedar, Sunaina; Borgman, Kurt; Bai, Er-Wei; Moy, Alan B

    2005-09-01

    Transendothelial impedance across an endothelial monolayer grown on a microelectrode has previously been modeled as a repeating pattern of disks in which the electrical circuit consists of a resistor and capacitor in series. Although this numerical model breaks down barrier function into measurements of cell-cell adhesion, cell-matrix adhesion, and membrane capacitance, such solution parameters can be inaccurate without understanding model stability and error. In this study, we have evaluated modeling stability and error by using a chi(2) evaluation and Levenberg-Marquardt nonlinear least-squares (LM-NLS) method of the real and/or imaginary data in which the experimental measurement is compared with the calculated measurement derived by the model. Modeling stability and error were dependent on current frequency and the type of experimental data modeled. Solution parameters of cell-matrix adhesion were most susceptible to modeling instability. Furthermore, the LM-NLS method displayed frequency-dependent instability of the solution parameters, regardless of whether the real or imaginary data were analyzed. However, the LM-NLS method identified stable and reproducible solution parameters between all types of experimental data when a defined frequency spectrum of the entire data set was selected on the basis of a criterion of minimizing error. The frequency bandwidth that produced stable solution parameters varied greatly among different data types. Thus a numerical model based on characterizing transendothelial impedance as a resistor and capacitor in series and as a repeating pattern of disks is not sufficient to characterize the entire frequency spectrum of experimental transendothelial impedance.

  8. More Efficient Bayesian-based Optimization and Uncertainty Assessment of Hydrologic Model Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-01

    is more objective, repeatable, and better capitalizes on the computational capacity of the modern computer) is an active area of research and...existence of multiple local optima , non-smooth objective function surfaces, and long valleys in parameter space that are a result of excessive parameter...outputs, structural aspects of the model, as well as its input dataset, model parameters that are adjustable through the calibration process, and the

  9. Performance-based parameter tuning method of model-driven PID control systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Y M; Xie, W F; Tu, X W

    2012-05-01

    In this paper, performance-based parameter tuning method of model-driven Two-Degree-of-Freedom PID (MD TDOF PID) control system has been proposed to enhance the control performances of a process. Known for its ability of stabilizing the unstable processes, fast tracking to the change of set points and rejecting disturbance, the MD TDOF PID has gained research interest recently. The tuning methods for the reported MD TDOF PID are based on internal model control (IMC) method instead of optimizing the performance indices. In this paper, an Integral of Time Absolute Error (ITAE) zero-position-error optimal tuning and noise effect minimizing method is proposed for tuning two parameters in MD TDOF PID control system to achieve the desired regulating and disturbance rejection performance. The comparison with Two-Degree-of-Freedom control scheme by modified smith predictor (TDOF CS MSP) and the designed MD TDOF PID tuned by the IMC tuning method demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed tuning method.

  10. RPV Model Parameters Based on Hyperspectral Bidirectional Reflectance Measurementsof Fagus sylvatica L. Leaves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitrios Biliouris

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The bidirectional reflectance parametric and semi-empirical Rahman-Pinty-Verstraete (RPV model was inverted based on Bidirectional Reflectance Factor (BRF measurements of 60 Fagus sylvatica L. leaves in the optical domain between 400 nm and 2,500 nm. This was accomplished using data retrieved from the Compact Laboratory Spectro-Goniometer (CLabSpeG with an azimuth and zenith angular step of 30 and 15 degrees, respectively. Wavelength depended RPV parameters describing the leaf reflectance shape (rho0, the curve convexity (k and the dominant forward scattering (Θ were derived using the RPVinversion-2 software (Joint Research Centre package with Correlation Coefficient values between modelled and measured data varying between 0.71 and 0.99 for all wavelengths, azimuth and zenith positions. The RPV model parameters were compared with a set of leaves not participating in the inversion procedure and presented Correlation Coefficient values ranging between 0.64 and 0.94 suggesting that RPV could be also used for simulating single canopy elements such as leaves.

  11. A network security situation prediction model based on wavelet neural network with optimized parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haibo Zhang

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The security incidents ion networks are sudden and uncertain, it is very hard to precisely predict the network security situation by traditional methods. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the network security situation, we build a network security situation prediction model based on Wavelet Neural Network (WNN with optimized parameters by the Improved Niche Genetic Algorithm (INGA. The proposed model adopts WNN which has strong nonlinear ability and fault-tolerance performance. Also, the parameters for WNN are optimized through the adaptive genetic algorithm (GA so that WNN searches more effectively. Considering the problem that the adaptive GA converges slowly and easily turns to the premature problem, we introduce a novel niche technology with a dynamic fuzzy clustering and elimination mechanism to solve the premature convergence of the GA. Our final simulation results show that the proposed INGA-WNN prediction model is more reliable and effective, and it achieves faster convergence-speed and higher prediction accuracy than the Genetic Algorithm-Wavelet Neural Network (GA-WNN, Genetic Algorithm-Back Propagation Neural Network (GA-BPNN and WNN.

  12. Response model parameter linking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barrett, Michelle Derbenwick

    2015-01-01

    With a few exceptions, the problem of linking item response model parameters from different item calibrations has been conceptualized as an instance of the problem of equating observed scores on different test forms. This thesis argues, however, that the use of item response models does not require

  13. Mathematical Model for Tempering Time Effect on Quenched Steel Based on Hollomon Parameter

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Nong WAN; Weihao XIONG; Jinping SUO

    2005-01-01

    Through the differentiating and integrating process, a mathematical model for tempering time effect on quenched steel was derived based on the attribute of state function and the general equation of Hollomon parameter, which correlates the tempering hardness with the tempering time at different tempering temperature. Using the established model, thelinear relationship between the tempering hardness and the tempering time in logarithm was proved theoretically, and the tempering hardness for various tempering time was reduced to the measurement and calculation of a hardness experiment tempered for 1 h at different tempering temperatures. Moreover, the hardness of steel 42CrMo and T8Mn tempered for various times at 200~600℃ was calculated using this method. The predicted results are in good agreement with those of the available experiments.

  14. SVM classification model in depression recognition based on mutation PSO parameter optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Ming

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available At present, the clinical diagnosis of depression is mainly through structured interviews by psychiatrists, which is lack of objective diagnostic methods, so it causes the higher rate of misdiagnosis. In this paper, a method of depression recognition based on SVM and particle swarm optimization algorithm mutation is proposed. To address on the problem that particle swarm optimization (PSO algorithm easily trap in local optima, we propose a feedback mutation PSO algorithm (FBPSO to balance the local search and global exploration ability, so that the parameters of the classification model is optimal. We compared different PSO mutation algorithms about classification accuracy for depression, and found the classification accuracy of support vector machine (SVM classifier based on feedback mutation PSO algorithm is the highest. Our study promotes important reference value for establishing auxiliary diagnostic used in depression recognition of clinical diagnosis.

  15. An Improved Technique Based on Firefly Algorithm to Estimate the Parameters of the Photovoltaic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Issa Ahmed Abed

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper present a method to enhance the firefly algorithm by coupling with a local search. The constructed technique is applied to identify the solar parameters model where the method has been proved its ability to obtain the photovoltaic parameters model. Standard firefly algorithm (FA, electromagnetism-like (EM algorithm, and electromagnetism-like without local (EMW search algorithm all are compared with the suggested method to test its capability to solve this model.

  16. Estimation of anisotropy parameters for shale based on an improved rock physics model, part 1: theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Feng; Li, Xiang-yang; Qian, Keran

    2017-02-01

    Shale is observed to have strong transverse isotropy due to its complex intrinsic properties on a small scale. An improved rock physics model has been developed to effectively model this intrinsic anisotropy. Several effective medium theories (Backus averaging, differential effective medium theory and self-consistent approximation) are validated and used in different steps of the workflow to simulate the effects of clay minerals, crack-like pores, kerogen and their preferred orientation on the elastic anisotropy. Anisotropic solid clay is constructed by using different clay mineral constituents instead of assuming it to be an equivalent isotropic or transversely isotropic medium. We differentiate between the voids associated with clay and the voids associated with other minerals based on their varied geometries and their different contributions to the anisotropy. The degree of alignment of clay particles, interconnected pore fluid and kerogen has a great influence on the elastic properties of shale. Therefore, in addition to the pore aspect ratio (asp), a new parameter called the lamination index (LI) related to the distribution of clay particle orientation is proposed and needs to be estimated during the modeling. We then present a practical inversion scheme to enable the prediction of anisotropy parameters for both vertical and horizontal well logs by estimating the lamination index and the pore aspect ratio simultaneously. The predicted elastic constants are demonstrated by using the published laboratory measurements of some Greenhorn shale, and they show better accuracy than the estimations in the existing literature. This model takes different rock properties into consideration and is thus generalized for shale formations from different areas. The application of this model to the well logs of some Upper Triassic shale in the Sichuan basin, and the analyzed results, are presented in part 2 of this paper.

  17. Non-linear spacecraft component parameters identification based on experimental results and finite element modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vismara, S. O.; Ricci, S.; Bellini, M.; Trittoni, L.

    2016-06-01

    The objective of the present paper is to describe a procedure to identify and model the non-linear behaviour of structural elements. The procedure herein applied can be divided into two main steps: the system identification and the finite element model updating. The application of the restoring force surface method as a strategy to characterize and identify localized non-linearities has been investigated. This method, which works in the time domain, has been chosen because it has `built-in' characterization capabilities, it allows a direct non-parametric identification of non-linear single-degree-of-freedom systems and it can easily deal with sine-sweep excitations. Two different application examples are reported. At first, a numerical test case has been carried out to investigate the modelling techniques in the case of non-linear behaviour based on the presence of a free-play in the model. The second example concerns the flap of the Intermediate eXperimental Vehicle that successfully completed its 100-min mission on 11 February 2015. The flap was developed under the responsibility of Thales Alenia Space Italia, the prime contractor, which provided the experimental data needed to accomplish the investigation. The procedure here presented has been applied to the results of modal testing performed on the article. Once the non-linear parameters were identified, they were used to update the finite element model in order to prove its capability of predicting the flap behaviour for different load levels.

  18. Model-based Acceleration of Parameter mapping (MAP) for saturation prepared radially acquired data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran-Gia, Johannes; Stäb, Daniel; Wech, Tobias; Hahn, Dietbert; Köstler, Herbert

    2013-12-01

    A reconstruction technique called Model-based Acceleration of Parameter mapping (MAP) is presented allowing for quantification of longitudinal relaxation time and proton density from radial single-shot measurements after saturation recovery magnetization preparation. Using a mono-exponential model in image space, an iterative fitting algorithm is used to reconstruct one well resolved and consistent image for each of the projections acquired during the saturation recovery relaxation process. The functionality of the algorithm is examined in numerical simulations, phantom experiments, and in-vivo studies. MAP reconstructions of single-shot acquisitions feature the same image quality and resolution as fully sampled reference images in phantom and in-vivo studies. The longitudinal relaxation times obtained from the MAP reconstructions are in very good agreement with the reference values in numerical simulations as well as phantom and in-vivo measurements. Compared to available contrast manipulation techniques, no averaging of projections acquired at different time points of the relaxation process is required in MAP imaging. The proposed technique offers new ways of extracting quantitative information from single-shot measurements acquired after magnetization preparation. The reconstruction simultaneously yields images with high spatiotemporal resolution fully consistent with the acquired data as well as maps of the effective longitudinal relaxation parameter and the relative proton density. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc., a Wiley company.

  19. Theoretical justification of space-mapping-based modeling utilizing a database and on-demand parameter extraction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koziel, Slawomir; Bandler, John W.; Madsen, Kaj

    2006-01-01

    We present a theoretical justification of a recently introduced surrogate modeling methodology based on space mapping that relies on an available data base and on-demand parameter extraction. Fine model data, the so-called base set, is assumed available in the region of interest. To evaluate the ...

  20. Determination of CME 3D parameters based on a new full ice-cream cone model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Na, Hyeonock; Moon, Yong-Jae

    2017-08-01

    In space weather forecast, it is important to determine three-dimensional properties of CMEs. Using 29 limb CMEs, we examine which cone type is close to a CME three-dimensional structure. We find that most CMEs have near full ice-cream cone structure which is a symmetrical circular cone combined with a hemisphere. We develop a full ice-cream cone model based on a new methodology that the full ice-cream cone consists of many flat cones with different heights and angular widths. By applying this model to 12 SOHO/LASCO halo CMEs, we find that 3D parameters from our method are similar to those from other stereoscopic methods (i.e., a triangulation method and a Graduated Cylindrical Shell model). In addition, we derive CME mean density (ρmean=Mtotal/Vcone) based on the full ice-cream cone structure. For several limb events, we determine CME mass by applying the Solarsoft procedure (e.g., cme_mass.pro) to SOHO/LASCO C3 images. CME volumes are estimated from the full ice-cream cone structure. From the power-law relationship between CME mean density and its height, we estimate CME mean densities at 20 solar radii (Rs). We will compare the CME densities at 20 Rs with their corresponding ICME densities.

  1. Model Parameter Adaption-Based Multi-Model Algorithm for Extended Object Tracking Using a Random Matrix

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Borui Li

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Traditional object tracking technology usually regards the target as a point source object. However, this approximation is no longer appropriate for tracking extended objects such as large targets and closely spaced group objects. Bayesian extended object tracking (EOT using a random symmetrical positive definite (SPD matrix is a very effective method to jointly estimate the kinematic state and physical extension of the target. The key issue in the application of this random matrix-based EOT approach is to model the physical extension and measurement noise accurately. Model parameter adaptive approaches for both extension dynamic and measurement noise are proposed in this study based on the properties of the SPD matrix to improve the performance of extension estimation. An interacting multi-model algorithm based on model parameter adaptive filter using random matrix is also presented. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed adaptive approaches and multi-model algorithm. The estimation performance of physical extension is better than the other algorithms, especially when the target maneuvers. The kinematic state estimation error is lower than the others as well.

  2. A constraint-based search algorithm for parameter identification of environmental models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gharari, S.; Shafiei, M.; Hrachowitz, M.; Kumar, R.; Fenicia, F.; Gupta, H.V.; Savenije, H.H.G.

    2014-01-01

    Many environmental systems models, such as conceptual rainfall-runoff models, rely on model calibration for parameter identification. For this, an observed output time series (such as runoff) is needed, but frequently not available (e.g., when making predictions in ungauged basins). In this study, w

  3. A three-parameter model for classifying anurans into four genera based on advertisement calls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gingras, Bruno; Fitch, William Tecumseh

    2013-01-01

    The vocalizations of anurans are innate in structure and may therefore contain indicators of phylogenetic history. Thus, advertisement calls of species which are more closely related phylogenetically are predicted to be more similar than those of distant species. This hypothesis was evaluated by comparing several widely used machine-learning algorithms. Recordings of advertisement calls from 142 species belonging to four genera were analyzed. A logistic regression model, using mean values for dominant frequency, coefficient of variation of root-mean square energy, and spectral flux, correctly classified advertisement calls with regard to genus with an accuracy above 70%. Similar accuracy rates were obtained using these parameters with a support vector machine model, a K-nearest neighbor algorithm, and a multivariate Gaussian distribution classifier, whereas a Gaussian mixture model performed slightly worse. In contrast, models based on mel-frequency cepstral coefficients did not fare as well. Comparable accuracy levels were obtained on out-of-sample recordings from 52 of the 142 original species. The results suggest that a combination of low-level acoustic attributes is sufficient to discriminate efficiently between the vocalizations of these four genera, thus supporting the initial premise and validating the use of high-throughput algorithms on animal vocalizations to evaluate phylogenetic hypotheses.

  4. AVAZ inversion for fracture weakness parameters based on the rock physics model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Huaizhen; Yin, Xingyao; Qu, Shouli; Zhang, Guangzhi

    2014-12-01

    Subsurface fractures within many carbonates and unconventional resources play an important role in the storage and movement of fluid. The more reliably the detection of fractures could be performed, the more finely the reservoir description could be made. In this paper, we aim to propose a method which uses two important tools, a fractured anisotropic rock physics effective model and AVAZ (amplitude versus incident and azimuthal angle) inversion, to predict fractures from azimuthal seismic data. We assume that the rock, which contains one or more sets of vertical or sub-vertical fractures, shows transverse isotropy with a horizontal axis of symmetry (HTI). Firstly, we develop one improved fractured anisotropic rock physics effective model. Using this model, we estimate P-wave velocity, S-wave velocity and fracture weaknesses from well-logging data. Then the method is proposed to predict fractures from azimuthal seismic data based on AVAZ inversion, and well A is used to verify the reliability of the improved rock physics effective model. Results show that the estimated results are consistent with the real log value, and the variation of fracture weaknesses may detect the locations of fractures. The damped least squares method, which uses the estimated results as initial constraints during the inversion, is more stable. Tests on synthetic data show that fracture weaknesses parameters are still estimated reasonably with moderate noise. A test on real data shows that the estimated results are in good agreement with the drilling.

  5. Algorithm for Tree Growth Modeling Based on Random Parameters and ARMA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lichun Jiang

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Chapman-Richards function is used to model growth data of dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii Rupr. from longitudinal measurements using nonlinear mixed-effects modeling approach. The parameter variation in the model was divided into random effects, fixed effects and variance-covariance structure. The values for fixed effects parameters and the variance-covariance matrix of random effects were estimated using NLME function in S-plus software. Autocorrelation structure was considered for explaining the dependency among multiple measurements within the individuals. Information criterion statistics (AIC, BIC and Likelihood ratio test are used for comparing different structures of the random effects components. These methods are illustrated using the nonlinear mixed-effects methods in S-Plus software. Results showed that the Chapman-Richards model with three random parameters could typically depict the dahurian larch tree growth in northeastern China. The mixed-effects model provided better performance and more precise estimations than the fixed-effects model.

  6. New approach to assess bioequivalence parameters using generalized gamma mixed-effect model (model-based asymptotic bioequivalence test).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yuh-Ing; Huang, Chi-Shen

    2014-02-28

    In the pharmacokinetic (PK) study under a 2x2 crossover design that involves both the test and reference drugs, we propose a mixed-effects model for the drug concentration-time profiles obtained from subjects who receive different drugs at different periods. In the proposed model, the drug concentrations repeatedly measured from the same subject at different time points are distributed according to a multivariate generalized gamma distribution, and the drug concentration-time profiles are described by a compartmental PK model with between-subject and within-subject variations. We then suggest a bioequivalence test based on the estimated bioavailability parameters in the proposed mixed-effects model. The results of a Monte Carlo study further show that the proposed model-based bioequivalence test is not only better on maintaining its level but also more powerful for detecting the bioequivalence of the two drugs than the conventional bioequivalence test based on a non-compartmental analysis or the one based on a mixed-effects model with a normal error variable. The application of the proposed model and test is finally illustrated by using data sets in two PK studies.

  7. Autotuning algorithm of particle swarm PID parameter based on D-Tent chaotic model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Min Zhu; Chunling Yang; Weiliang Li

    2013-01-01

    An improved particle swarm algorithm based on the D-Tent chaotic model is put forward aiming at the standard particle swarm algorithm. The convergence rate of the late of proposed al-gorithm is improved by revising the inertia weight of global optimal particles and the introduction of D-Tent chaotic sequence. Through the test of typical function and the autotuning test of proportional-integral-derivative (PID) parameter, finally a simulation is made to the servo control system of a permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM) under double-loop control of rotating speed and current by utilizing the chaotic particle swarm algorithm. Studies show that the proposed algorithm can reduce the iterative times and improve the convergence rate under the condition that the global optimal solution can be got.

  8. Parameter Identification of Equivalent Circuit Models for Li-ion Batteries Based on Tree Seeds Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, W. J.; Tan, X. J.; Cai, M.

    2017-07-01

    Parameter identification method of equivalent circuit models for Li-ion batteries using the advanced tree seeds algorithm is proposed. On one hand, since the electrochemical models are not suitable for the design of battery management system, the equivalent circuit models are commonly adopted for on-board applications. On the other hand, by building up the objective function for optimization, the tree seeds algorithm can be used to identify the parameters of equivalent circuit models. Experimental verifications under different profiles demonstrate the suggested method can achieve a better result with lower complexity, more accuracy and robustness, which make it a reasonable alternative for other identification algorithms.

  9. Principal Base Parameter Analysis: Implementation and Analysis in an Adaptive Model-Based Robotic Controller

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-12-01

    Proc. IEEE Conf. on Robotics and Automation, pages 1520-1531, 1986. Vol. 3. 12. P. Khosla and T. Kanade. Parameters Identification of Robot Dynamics . In...Manipulator Control: A Case Study. In Proc. of IEEE Int. Conf. on Robotics and Automation, pages 1392-1400, 1987. 26. Mark W. Spong and M. Vidyasagar. Robot ... Dynamics and Control. John Wiley and Sons, 1989. 27. T.J. Tan and A.K. Beiczy. Dynamic Equations for PUMA-560 Robot Arm. Technical Report SSM-RL-85-02

  10. Distributed Parameter Modelling Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2011-01-01

    Here the issue of distributed parameter models is addressed. Spatial variations as well as time are considered important. Several applications for both steady state and dynamic applications are given. These relate to the processing of oil shale, the granulation of industrial fertilizers and the d......Here the issue of distributed parameter models is addressed. Spatial variations as well as time are considered important. Several applications for both steady state and dynamic applications are given. These relate to the processing of oil shale, the granulation of industrial fertilizers...... sands processing. The fertilizer granulation model considers the dynamics of MAP-DAP (mono and diammonium phosphates) production within an industrial granulator, that involves complex crystallisation, chemical reaction and particle growth, captured through population balances. A final example considers...

  11. Robust seismicity forecasting based on Bayesian parameter estimation for epidemiological spatio-temporal aftershock clustering models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebrahimian, Hossein; Jalayer, Fatemeh

    2017-08-29

    In the immediate aftermath of a strong earthquake and in the presence of an ongoing aftershock sequence, scientific advisories in terms of seismicity forecasts play quite a crucial role in emergency decision-making and risk mitigation. Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models are frequently used for forecasting the spatio-temporal evolution of seismicity in the short-term. We propose robust forecasting of seismicity based on ETAS model, by exploiting the link between Bayesian inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation. The methodology considers the uncertainty not only in the model parameters, conditioned on the available catalogue of events occurred before the forecasting interval, but also the uncertainty in the sequence of events that are going to happen during the forecasting interval. We demonstrate the methodology by retrospective early forecasting of seismicity associated with the 2016 Amatrice seismic sequence activities in central Italy. We provide robust spatio-temporal short-term seismicity forecasts with various time intervals in the first few days elapsed after each of the three main events within the sequence, which can predict the seismicity within plus/minus two standard deviations from the mean estimate within the few hours elapsed after the main event.

  12. Photovoltaic module parameters acquisition model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cibira, Gabriel; Koščová, Marcela

    2014-09-01

    This paper presents basic procedures for photovoltaic (PV) module parameters acquisition using MATLAB and Simulink modelling. In first step, MATLAB and Simulink theoretical model are set to calculate I-V and P-V characteristics for PV module based on equivalent electrical circuit. Then, limited I-V data string is obtained from examined PV module using standard measurement equipment at standard irradiation and temperature conditions and stated into MATLAB data matrix as a reference model. Next, the theoretical model is optimized to keep-up with the reference model and to learn its basic parameters relations, over sparse data matrix. Finally, PV module parameters are deliverable for acquisition at different realistic irradiation, temperature conditions as well as series resistance. Besides of output power characteristics and efficiency calculation for PV module or system, proposed model validates computing statistical deviation compared to reference model.

  13. Predicting biological parameters of estuarine benthic communities using models based on environmental data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Souto Rosa-Filho

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to predict the biological parameters (species composition, abundance, richness, diversity and evenness of benthic assemblages in southern Brazil estuaries using models based on environmental data (sediment characteristics, salinity, air and water temperature and depth. Samples were collected seasonally from five estuaries between the winter of 1996 and the summer of 1998. At each estuary, samples were taken in unpolluted areas with similar characteristics related to presence or absence of vegetation, depth and distance from the mouth. In order to obtain predictive models, two methods were used, the first one based on Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA, and the second based on Multiple Linear Regression (MLR. Models using MDA had better results than those based on linear regression. The best results using MLR were obtained for diversity and richness. It could be concluded that the use predictions models based on environmental data would be very useful in environmental monitoring studies in estuaries.Este trabalho objetivou predizer parâmetros da estrutura de associações macrobentônicas (composição específica, abundância, riqueza, diversidade e equitatividade em estuários do Sul do Brasil, utilizando modelos baseados em dados ambientais (características dos sedimentos, salinidade, temperaturas do ar e da água, e profundidade. As amostragens foram realizadas sazonalmente em cinco estuários entre o inverno de 1996 e o verão de 1998. Em cada estuário as amostras foram coletadas em áreas não poluídas, com características semelhantes quanto a presença ou ausência de vegetação, profundidade e distância da desenbocadura. Para a obtenção dos modelos de predição, foram utilizados dois métodos: o primeiro baseado em Análise Discriminante Múltipla (ADM e o segundo em Regressão Linear Múltipla (RLM. Os modelos baseados em ADM apresentaram resultados melhores do que os baseados em regressão linear. Os melhores

  14. A polynomial hybrid reflection model and measurement of its parameters based on images of sample

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lei Yang; Jiuqiang Han

    2007-01-01

    Reflectance model is a basic concept in computer vision. Some existing models combining the classical diffuse reflectance model and those for surfaces containing specular components can approximately describe real reflectance. But the ratio of diffuse and specular reflection decided manually has no clear meaning.We propose a new polynomial hybrid reflectance model. The reflectance map equation with a known shape (for example cylinder) as a sample is used to estimate parameters of the proposed reflectance model by least square regression algorithm. Then the reflectance parameters for surfaces of the same class of materials can be determined. Experiments are performed for a metal surface. The synthesis images produced by the proposed method and existing ones are compared with the real acquired image, and the results show that the proposed reflectance model is suitable for describing real reflectance.

  15. Maximum profile likelihood estimation of differential equation parameters through model based smoothing state estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, D A; Chkrebtii, O

    2013-12-01

    Statistical inference for biochemical models often faces a variety of characteristic challenges. In this paper we examine state and parameter estimation for the JAK-STAT intracellular signalling mechanism, which exemplifies the implementation intricacies common in many biochemical inference problems. We introduce an extension to the Generalized Smoothing approach for estimating delay differential equation models, addressing selection of complexity parameters, choice of the basis system, and appropriate optimization strategies. Motivated by the JAK-STAT system, we further extend the generalized smoothing approach to consider a nonlinear observation process with additional unknown parameters, and highlight how the approach handles unobserved states and unevenly spaced observations. The methodology developed is generally applicable to problems of estimation for differential equation models with delays, unobserved states, nonlinear observation processes, and partially observed histories.

  16. Parameter estimation with a novel gradient-based optimization method for biological lattice-gas cellular automaton models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mente, Carsten; Prade, Ina; Brusch, Lutz; Breier, Georg; Deutsch, Andreas

    2011-07-01

    Lattice-gas cellular automata (LGCAs) can serve as stochastic mathematical models for collective behavior (e.g. pattern formation) emerging in populations of interacting cells. In this paper, a two-phase optimization algorithm for global parameter estimation in LGCA models is presented. In the first phase, local minima are identified through gradient-based optimization. Algorithmic differentiation is adopted to calculate the necessary gradient information. In the second phase, for global optimization of the parameter set, a multi-level single-linkage method is used. As an example, the parameter estimation algorithm is applied to a LGCA model for early in vitro angiogenic pattern formation.

  17. Estimation of impact damping parameters for a cam-follower system based on measurements and analytical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundar, Sriram; Dreyer, Jason T.; Singh, Rajendra

    2016-12-01

    A new cam-follower system experiment capable of generating periodic impacts is utilized to estimate the impact damping model parameters. The experiment is designed to precisely measure the forces and acceleration during impulsive events. The impact damping force is described as a product of a damping coefficient, the indentation displacement raised to the power of a damping index, and the time derivative of the indentation displacement. A novel time-domain based technique and a signal processing procedure are developed to accurately estimate the damping coefficient and index. The measurements are compared to the predictions from a corresponding contact mechanics model with trial values of damping parameters on the basis of a particular residue; both parameters are quantified based on the minimization of this residue. The estimated damping parameters are justified using the literature and an equivalent coefficient of restitution model is developed. Also, some unresolved issues regarding the impact damping model are addressed.

  18. Short-Term Solar Irradiance Forecasting Model Based on Artificial Neural Network Using Statistical Feature Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongshan Zhao

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Short-term solar irradiance forecasting (STSIF is of great significance for the optimal operation and power predication of grid-connected photovoltaic (PV plants. However, STSIF is very complex to handle due to the random and nonlinear characteristics of solar irradiance under changeable weather conditions. Artificial Neural Network (ANN is suitable for STSIF modeling and many research works on this topic are presented, but the conciseness and robustness of the existing models still need to be improved. After discussing the relation between weather variations and irradiance, the characteristics of the statistical feature parameters of irradiance under different weather conditions are figured out. A novel ANN model using statistical feature parameters (ANN-SFP for STSIF is proposed in this paper. The input vector is reconstructed with several statistical feature parameters of irradiance and ambient temperature. Thus sufficient information can be effectively extracted from relatively few inputs and the model complexity is reduced. The model structure is determined by cross-validation (CV, and the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm (LMA is used for the network training. Simulations are carried out to validate and compare the proposed model with the conventional ANN model using historical data series (ANN-HDS, and the results indicated that the forecast accuracy is obviously improved under variable weather conditions.

  19. Bayesian Hierarchical Random Intercept Model Based on Three Parameter Gamma Distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wirawati, Ika; Iriawan, Nur; Irhamah

    2017-06-01

    Hierarchical data structures are common throughout many areas of research. Beforehand, the existence of this type of data was less noticed in the analysis. The appropriate statistical analysis to handle this type of data is the hierarchical linear model (HLM). This article will focus only on random intercept model (RIM), as a subclass of HLM. This model assumes that the intercept of models in the lowest level are varied among those models, and their slopes are fixed. The differences of intercepts were suspected affected by some variables in the upper level. These intercepts, therefore, are regressed against those upper level variables as predictors. The purpose of this paper would demonstrate a proven work of the proposed two level RIM of the modeling on per capita household expenditure in Maluku Utara, which has five characteristics in the first level and three characteristics of districts/cities in the second level. The per capita household expenditure data in the first level were captured by the three parameters Gamma distribution. The model, therefore, would be more complex due to interaction of many parameters for representing the hierarchical structure and distribution pattern of the data. To simplify the estimation processes of parameters, the computational Bayesian method couple with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm and its Gibbs Sampling are employed.

  20. Parameter Identification of Ship Maneuvering Models Using Recursive Least Square Method Based on Support Vector Machines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Man Zhu

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Determination of ship maneuvering models is a tough task of ship maneuverability prediction. Among several prime approaches of estimating ship maneuvering models, system identification combined with the full-scale or free- running model test is preferred. In this contribution, real-time system identification programs using recursive identification method, such as the recursive least square method (RLS, are exerted for on-line identification of ship maneuvering models. However, this method seriously depends on the objects of study and initial values of identified parameters. To overcome this, an intelligent technology, i.e., support vector machines (SVM, is firstly used to estimate initial values of the identified parameters with finite samples. As real measured motion data of the Mariner class ship always involve noise from sensors and external disturbances, the zigzag simulation test data include a substantial quantity of Gaussian white noise. Wavelet method and empirical mode decomposition (EMD are used to filter the data corrupted by noise, respectively. The choice of the sample number for SVM to decide initial values of identified parameters is extensively discussed and analyzed. With de-noised motion data as input-output training samples, parameters of ship maneuvering models are estimated using RLS and SVM-RLS, respectively. The comparison between identification results and true values of parameters demonstrates that both the identified ship maneuvering models from RLS and SVM-RLS have reasonable agreements with simulated motions of the ship, and the increment of the sample for SVM positively affects the identification results. Furthermore, SVM-RLS using data de-noised by EMD shows the highest accuracy and best convergence.

  1. Outlier treatment for improving parameter estimation of group contribution based models for upper flammability limit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frutiger, Jerome; Abildskov, Jens; Sin, Gürkan

    2015-01-01

    Flammability data is needed to assess the risk of fire and explosions. This study presents a new group contribution (GC) model to predict the upper flammability limit UFL oforganic chemicals. Furthermore, it provides a systematic method for outlier treatment inorder to improve the parameter...

  2. A new multi-wavelength model-based method for determination of enzyme kinetic parameters

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Mohammad-Hossein Sorouraddin; Kaveh Amini; Abdolhossein Naseri; Javad Vallipour; Jalal Hanaee; Mohammad-Reza Rashidi

    2010-09-01

    Lineweaver–Burk plot analysis is the most widely used method to determine enzyme kinetic parameters. In the spectrophotometric determination of enzyme activity using the Lineweaver–Burk plot, it is necessary to find a wavelength at which only the substrate or the product has absorbance without any spectroscopic interference of the other reaction components. Moreover, in this method, different initial concentrations of the substrate should be used to obtain the initial velocities required for Lineweaver–Burk plot analysis. In the present work, a multi-wavelength model-based method has been developed and validated to determine Michaelis–Menten constants for some enzyme reactions. In this method, a selective wavelength region and several experiments with different initial concentrations of the substrate are not required. The absorbance data of the kinetic assays are fitted by non-linear regression coupled to the numeric integration of the related differential equation. To indicate the applicability of the proposed method, the Michaelis–Menten constants for the oxidation of phenanthridine, 6-deoxypenciclovir and xanthine by molybdenum hydroxylases were determined using only a single initial concentration of the substrate, regardless of any spectral overlap.

  3. A new multi-wavelength model-based method for determination of enzyme kinetic parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorouraddin, Mohammad-Hossein; Amini, Kaveh; Naseri, Abdolhossein; Vallipour, Javad; Hanaee, Jalal; Rashidi, Mohammad-Reza

    2010-09-01

    Lineweaver-Burk plot analysis is the most widely used method to determine enzyme kinetic parameters. In the spectrophotometric determination of enzyme activity using the Lineweaver-Burk plot, it is necessary to find a wavelength at which only the substrate or the product has absorbance without any spectroscopic interference of the other reaction components. Moreover, in this method, different initial concentrations of the substrate should be used to obtain the initial velocities required for Lineweaver-Burk plot analysis. In the present work, a multi-wavelength model-based method has been developed and validated to determine Michaelis-Menten constants for some enzyme reactions. In this method, a selective wavelength region and several experiments with different initial concentrations of the substrate are not required. The absorbance data of the kinetic assays are fitted by non-linear regression coupled to the numeric integration of the related differential equation. To indicate the applicability of the proposed method, the Michaelis-Menten constants for the oxidation of phenanthridine, 6-deoxypenciclovir and xanthine by molybdenum hydroxylases were determined using only a single initial concentration of the substrate, regardless of any spectral overlap.

  4. Mechanistic analysis of multi-omics datasets to generate kinetic parameters for constraint-based metabolic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cotten Cameron

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Constraint-based modeling uses mass balances, flux capacity, and reaction directionality constraints to predict fluxes through metabolism. Although transcriptional regulation and thermodynamic constraints have been integrated into constraint-based modeling, kinetic rate laws have not been extensively used. Results In this study, an in vivo kinetic parameter estimation problem was formulated and solved using multi-omic data sets for Escherichia coli. To narrow the confidence intervals for kinetic parameters, a series of kinetic model simplifications were made, resulting in fewer kinetic parameters than the full kinetic model. These new parameter values are able to account for flux and concentration data from 20 different experimental conditions used in our training dataset. Concentration estimates from the simplified kinetic model were within one standard deviation for 92.7% of the 790 experimental measurements in the training set. Gibbs free energy changes of reaction were calculated to identify reactions that were often operating close to or far from equilibrium. In addition, enzymes whose activities were positively or negatively influenced by metabolite concentrations were also identified. The kinetic model was then used to calculate the maximum and minimum possible flux values for individual reactions from independent metabolite and enzyme concentration data that were not used to estimate parameter values. Incorporating these kinetically-derived flux limits into the constraint-based metabolic model improved predictions for uptake and secretion rates and intracellular fluxes in constraint-based models of central metabolism. Conclusions This study has produced a method for in vivo kinetic parameter estimation and identified strategies and outcomes of kinetic model simplification. We also have illustrated how kinetic constraints can be used to improve constraint-based model predictions for intracellular fluxes and biomass

  5. Mechanistic analysis of multi-omics datasets to generate kinetic parameters for constraint-based metabolic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cotten, Cameron; Reed, Jennifer L

    2013-01-30

    Constraint-based modeling uses mass balances, flux capacity, and reaction directionality constraints to predict fluxes through metabolism. Although transcriptional regulation and thermodynamic constraints have been integrated into constraint-based modeling, kinetic rate laws have not been extensively used. In this study, an in vivo kinetic parameter estimation problem was formulated and solved using multi-omic data sets for Escherichia coli. To narrow the confidence intervals for kinetic parameters, a series of kinetic model simplifications were made, resulting in fewer kinetic parameters than the full kinetic model. These new parameter values are able to account for flux and concentration data from 20 different experimental conditions used in our training dataset. Concentration estimates from the simplified kinetic model were within one standard deviation for 92.7% of the 790 experimental measurements in the training set. Gibbs free energy changes of reaction were calculated to identify reactions that were often operating close to or far from equilibrium. In addition, enzymes whose activities were positively or negatively influenced by metabolite concentrations were also identified. The kinetic model was then used to calculate the maximum and minimum possible flux values for individual reactions from independent metabolite and enzyme concentration data that were not used to estimate parameter values. Incorporating these kinetically-derived flux limits into the constraint-based metabolic model improved predictions for uptake and secretion rates and intracellular fluxes in constraint-based models of central metabolism. This study has produced a method for in vivo kinetic parameter estimation and identified strategies and outcomes of kinetic model simplification. We also have illustrated how kinetic constraints can be used to improve constraint-based model predictions for intracellular fluxes and biomass yield and identify potential metabolic limitations through the

  6. Mathematical modeling of drying of potato slices in a forced convective dryer based on important parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naderinezhad, Samira; Etesami, Nasrin; Poormalek Najafabady, Arefe; Ghasemi Falavarjani, Majid

    2016-01-01

    The effect of air temperature, air velocity, and sample shapes (circle and square with the same cross-sectional area) on kinetic drying of potato slices in a tunnel dryer was investigated experimentally and a suitable drying model was developed. The experiments of drying of potato slices were conducted at an air temperature of 45-70°C with an air velocity 1.60 and 1.81 m sec(-1). Results showed that drying temperature was the most effective parameter in the drying rate. The influence of air velocity was more profound in low temperature. The time for drying square slices was lower compared to the circle ones. Furthermore, drying data were fitted to different empirical models. Among the models, Midilli-Kucuk was the best to explain the single layer drying of potato slices. The parameters of this model were determined as functions of air velocity and temperature by multiple regression analysis for circle and square slices. Various statistical parameters were examined for evaluating the model.

  7. [Sensitivity analysis of AnnAGNPS model's hydrology and water quality parameters based on the perturbation analysis method].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xi, Qing; Li, Zhao-Fu; Luo, Chuan

    2014-05-01

    Sensitivity analysis of hydrology and water quality parameters has a great significance for integrated model's construction and application. Based on AnnAGNPS model's mechanism, terrain, hydrology and meteorology, field management, soil and other four major categories of 31 parameters were selected for the sensitivity analysis in Zhongtian river watershed which is a typical small watershed of hilly region in the Taihu Lake, and then used the perturbation method to evaluate the sensitivity of the parameters to the model's simulation results. The results showed that: in the 11 terrain parameters, LS was sensitive to all the model results, RMN, RS and RVC were generally sensitive and less sensitive to the output of sediment but insensitive to the remaining results. For hydrometeorological parameters, CN was more sensitive to runoff and sediment and relatively sensitive for the rest results. In field management, fertilizer and vegetation parameters, CCC, CRM and RR were less sensitive to sediment and particulate pollutants, the six fertilizer parameters (FR, FD, FID, FOD, FIP, FOP) were particularly sensitive for nitrogen and phosphorus nutrients. For soil parameters, K is quite sensitive to all the results except the runoff, the four parameters of the soil's nitrogen and phosphorus ratio (SONR, SINR, SOPR, SIPR) were less sensitive to the corresponding results. The simulation and verification results of runoff in Zhongtian watershed show a good accuracy with the deviation less than 10% during 2005- 2010. Research results have a direct reference value on AnnAGNPS model's parameter selection and calibration adjustment. The runoff simulation results of the study area also proved that the sensitivity analysis was practicable to the parameter's adjustment and showed the adaptability to the hydrology simulation in the Taihu Lake basin's hilly region and provide reference for the model's promotion in China.

  8. A One-Step-Ahead Smoothing-Based Joint Ensemble Kalman Filter for State-Parameter Estimation of Hydrological Models

    KAUST Repository

    El Gharamti, Mohamad

    2015-11-26

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) recursively integrates field data into simulation models to obtain a better characterization of the model’s state and parameters. These are generally estimated following a state-parameters joint augmentation strategy. In this study, we introduce a new smoothing-based joint EnKF scheme, in which we introduce a one-step-ahead smoothing of the state before updating the parameters. Numerical experiments are performed with a two-dimensional synthetic subsurface contaminant transport model. The improved performance of the proposed joint EnKF scheme compared to the standard joint EnKF compensates for the modest increase in the computational cost.

  9. Discussion of skill improvement in marine ecosystem dynamic models based on parameter optimization and skill assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Chengcheng; Shi, Honghua; Liu, Yongzhi; Li, Fen; Ding, Dewen

    2016-07-01

    Marine ecosystem dynamic models (MEDMs) are important tools for the simulation and prediction of marine ecosystems. This article summarizes the methods and strategies used for the improvement and assessment of MEDM skill, and it attempts to establish a technical framework to inspire further ideas concerning MEDM skill improvement. The skill of MEDMs can be improved by parameter optimization (PO), which is an important step in model calibration. An efficient approach to solve the problem of PO constrained by MEDMs is the global treatment of both sensitivity analysis and PO. Model validation is an essential step following PO, which validates the efficiency of model calibration by analyzing and estimating the goodness-of-fit of the optimized model. Additionally, by focusing on the degree of impact of various factors on model skill, model uncertainty analysis can supply model users with a quantitative assessment of model confidence. Research on MEDMs is ongoing; however, improvement in model skill still lacks global treatments and its assessment is not integrated. Thus, the predictive performance of MEDMs is not strong and model uncertainties lack quantitative descriptions, limiting their application. Therefore, a large number of case studies concerning model skill should be performed to promote the development of a scientific and normative technical framework for the improvement of MEDM skill.

  10. The use of in vitro metabolic parameters and physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to explore the risk assessment of trichloroethylene

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hissink, E.M.; Bogaards, J.J.P.; Freidig, A.P.; Commandeur, J.N.M.; Vermeulen, N.P.E.; Bladeren, P.J. van

    2002-01-01

    A physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model has been developed for trichloroethylene (1,1,2-trichloroethene, TRI) for rat and humans, based on in vitro metabolic parameters. These were obtained using individual cytochrome P450 and glutathione S-transferase enzymes. The main enzymes involved

  11. The Comparison of Distributed P2P Trust Models Based on Quantitative Parameters in the File Downloading Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingpei Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Varied P2P trust models have been proposed recently; it is necessary to develop an effective method to evaluate these trust models to resolve the commonalities (guiding the newly generated trust models in theory and individuality (assisting a decision maker in choosing an optimal trust model to implement in specific context issues. A new method for analyzing and comparing P2P trust models based on hierarchical parameters quantization in the file downloading scenarios is proposed in this paper. Several parameters are extracted from the functional attributes and quality feature of trust relationship, as well as requirements from the specific network context and the evaluators. Several distributed P2P trust models are analyzed quantitatively with extracted parameters modeled into a hierarchical model. The fuzzy inferring method is applied to the hierarchical modeling of parameters to fuse the evaluated values of the candidate trust models, and then the relative optimal one is selected based on the sorted overall quantitative values. Finally, analyses and simulation are performed. The results show that the proposed method is reasonable and effective compared with the previous algorithms.

  12. The Time-Dependent FX-SABR Model: Efficient Calibration based on Effective Parameters

    OpenAIRE

    Stoep, van der, H.; Grzelak, Lech Aleksander; OOSTERLEE, Cornelis

    2014-01-01

    We present a framework for efficient calibration of the time-dependent SABR model (Fern´andez et al. (2013) Mathematics and Computers in Simulation 94, 55–75; Hagan et al. (2002) Wilmott Magazine 84–108; Osajima (2007) Available at SSRN 965265.) in an foreign exchange (FX) context. In a similar fashion as in (Piterbarg (2005) Risk 18 (5), 71–75) we derive effective parameters, which yield an accurate and efficient calibration. On top of the calibrated FX-SABR model, we add a non-parametric lo...

  13. Estimation Model of Spacecraft Parameters and Cost Based on a Statistical Analysis of COMPASS Designs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerberich, Matthew W.; Oleson, Steven R.

    2013-01-01

    The Collaborative Modeling for Parametric Assessment of Space Systems (COMPASS) team at Glenn Research Center has performed integrated system analysis of conceptual spacecraft mission designs since 2006 using a multidisciplinary concurrent engineering process. The set of completed designs was archived in a database, to allow for the study of relationships between design parameters. Although COMPASS uses a parametric spacecraft costing model, this research investigated the possibility of using a top-down approach to rapidly estimate the overall vehicle costs. This paper presents the relationships between significant design variables, including breakdowns of dry mass, wet mass, and cost. It also develops a model for a broad estimate of these parameters through basic mission characteristics, including the target location distance, the payload mass, the duration, the delta-v requirement, and the type of mission, propulsion, and electrical power. Finally, this paper examines the accuracy of this model in regards to past COMPASS designs, with an assessment of outlying spacecraft, and compares the results to historical data of completed NASA missions.

  14. A Gaussian mixture model based cost function for parameter estimation of chaotic biological systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shekofteh, Yasser; Jafari, Sajad; Sprott, Julien Clinton; Hashemi Golpayegani, S. Mohammad Reza; Almasganj, Farshad

    2015-02-01

    As we know, many biological systems such as neurons or the heart can exhibit chaotic behavior. Conventional methods for parameter estimation in models of these systems have some limitations caused by sensitivity to initial conditions. In this paper, a novel cost function is proposed to overcome those limitations by building a statistical model on the distribution of the real system attractor in state space. This cost function is defined by the use of a likelihood score in a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) which is fitted to the observed attractor generated by the real system. Using that learned GMM, a similarity score can be defined by the computed likelihood score of the model time series. We have applied the proposed method to the parameter estimation of two important biological systems, a neuron and a cardiac pacemaker, which show chaotic behavior. Some simulated experiments are given to verify the usefulness of the proposed approach in clean and noisy conditions. The results show the adequacy of the proposed cost function.

  15. SCAN-based hybrid and double-hybrid density functionals from parameter-free models

    CERN Document Server

    Hui, Kerwin

    2015-01-01

    By incorporating the nonempirical SCAN semilocal density functional [Sun, Ruzsinszky, and Perdew, Phys. Rev. Lett. 115, 036402 (2015)] in the underlying expression, we propose one hybrid (SCAN0) and three double-hybrid (SCAN0-DH, SCAN-QIDH, and SCAN0-2) density functionals, which are free of any empirical parameter. The SCAN-based hybrid and double-hybrid functionals consistently outperform their parent SCAN semilocal functional for a wide range of applications. The SCAN-based semilocal, hybrid, and double-hybrid functionals generally perform better than the corresponding PBE-based functionals. In addition, the SCAN0-2 and SCAN-QIDH double-hybrid functionals significantly reduce the qualitative failures of the SCAN semilocal functional, such as the self-interaction error and noncovalent interaction error, extending the applicability of the SCAN-based functionals to a very diverse range of systems.

  16. Tandem strip mill's multi-parameter coupling dynamic modeling based on the thickness control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Yan; Zhang, Yang; Sun, Jianliang; Zang, Yong

    2015-03-01

    The rolling process is determined by the interaction of a number of different movements, during which the relative movement occurs between the vibrating roll system and the rolled piece, and the roll system's vibration interacts with the strip's deformation and rigid movement. So many parameters being involved leads to a complex mechanism of this coupling effect. Through testing and analyzing the vibration signals of the mill in the rolling process, the rolling mill's coupled model is established with comprehensive consideration of the coupling interaction between the mill's vertical vibration, its torsional vibration and the working roll's horizontal vibration, and vibration characteristics of different forms of rolling mill's vibration are analyzed under the coupling effect. With comprehensive attention to the relationship between the roll system, the moving strip and the rolling parameters' dynamic properties, and also from the strip thickness control point of view, further research is done on the coupling mechanism between the roll system's movement and the moving strip's characteristics in the rolling process. As a result, the law of inertial coupling and the stiffness coupling effect caused by different forms of the roll system's vibration is determined and the existence of nonlinear characteristics caused by the elastic deformation of moving strip is also found. Furthermore, a multi-parameter coupling-dynamic model is established which takes the tandem strip mill as its research object by making a detailed kinematics analysis of the roll system and using the principle of virtual work. The coupling-dynamic model proposes the instruction to describe the roll system's movement, and analyzes its dynamic response and working stability, and provides a theoretical basis for the realization of the strip thickness' dynamic control.

  17. High-Resolution Gene Flow Model for Assessing Environmental Impacts of Transgene Escape Based on Biological Parameters and Wind Speed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lei; Haccou, Patsy; Lu, Bao-Rong

    2016-01-01

    Environmental impacts caused by transgene flow from genetically engineered (GE) crops to their wild relatives mediated by pollination are longstanding biosafety concerns worldwide. Mathematical modeling provides a useful tool for estimating frequencies of pollen-mediated gene flow (PMGF) that are critical for assessing such environmental impacts. However, most PMGF models are impractical for this purpose because their parameterization requires actual data from field experiments. In addition, most of these models are usually too general and ignored the important biological characteristics of concerned plant species; and therefore cannot provide accurate prediction for PMGF frequencies. It is necessary to develop more accurate PMGF models based on biological and climatic parameters that can be easily measured in situ. Here, we present a quasi-mechanistic PMGF model that only requires the input of biological and wind speed parameters without actual data from field experiments. Validation of the quasi-mechanistic model based on five sets of published data from field experiments showed significant correlations between the model-simulated and field experimental-generated PMGF frequencies. These results suggest accurate prediction for PMGF frequencies using this model, provided that the necessary biological parameters and wind speed data are available. This model can largely facilitate the assessment and management of environmental impacts caused by transgene flow, such as determining transgene flow frequencies at a particular spatial distance, and establishing spatial isolation between a GE crop and its coexisting non-GE counterparts and wild relatives.

  18. 基于DOE参数筛选的SPH鸟体参数反演%Parameter Inversion of SPH Bird Model Based on DOE Parameter Selection

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    罗军; 刘长虹; 洪清泉; 鞠锋; 丁敏

    2012-01-01

    鸟体参数的准确性对鸟撞仿真精度有重大影响,参数反演可以克服人工试凑法的局限生,搜寻出合理的鸟体参数,提高鸟撞仿真精度.在Hyper Study多学科优化平台下,先采用正交实验设计方法挑选出对位移结果敏感的鸟体参数,以简化优化问题的复杂性和计算量,然后采用自适应响应面法进行鸟体的参数反演的多目标优化,优化目标为最小化鸟撞位置处仿真位移和实验位移的平方差.RADIOSS的求解结果表明,采用优化后的鸟体参数的鸟体模型的仿真曲线与实验曲线拟合效果大大提高.%The accuracy of the bird model parameters has a significant effect on bird strike simulation, and the inversion of physical parameters can overcome the limitations of artificial trial method finding out reasonable bird model parameters and improving the accuracy of bird strike simulation. Based on the Hyper Study,a multidisciplinary optimization platform,orthogonal design of experimental(DOE)method is introduced to identify the model parameters which are sensitive to displacement, to simplify the complexity of optimization and to reduce the computation.Then those parameters are optimized based on adaptive response surface method (ARSM),and the optimization objective is to minimize the squared differences of simulation displacement and experimental displacement on the bird strike points.The results solved by RADIOSS demonstrate that when bird model adoptes the optimized parameters ,the simulation curve and experimental curve fit better.

  19. Model parameter estimation approach based on incremental analysis for lithium-ion batteries without using open circuit voltage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Hongjie; Yuan, Shifei; Zhang, Xi; Yin, Chengliang; Ma, Xuerui

    2015-08-01

    To improve the suitability of lithium-ion battery model under varying scenarios, such as fluctuating temperature and SoC variation, dynamic model with parameters updated realtime should be developed. In this paper, an incremental analysis-based auto regressive exogenous (I-ARX) modeling method is proposed to eliminate the modeling error caused by the OCV effect and improve the accuracy of parameter estimation. Then, its numerical stability, modeling error, and parametric sensitivity are analyzed at different sampling rates (0.02, 0.1, 0.5 and 1 s). To identify the model parameters recursively, a bias-correction recursive least squares (CRLS) algorithm is applied. Finally, the pseudo random binary sequence (PRBS) and urban dynamic driving sequences (UDDSs) profiles are performed to verify the realtime performance and robustness of the newly proposed model and algorithm. Different sampling rates (1 Hz and 10 Hz) and multiple temperature points (5, 25, and 45 °C) are covered in our experiments. The experimental and simulation results indicate that the proposed I-ARX model can present high accuracy and suitability for parameter identification without using open circuit voltage.

  20. Model measurement based identification of Francis turbine vortex rope parameters for prototype part load pressure and power pulsation prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manderla, M.; Weber, W.; Koutnik, J.

    2016-11-01

    Pressure and power fluctuations of hydro-electric power plants in part-load operation are an important measure for the quality of the power which is delivered to the electrical grid. It is well known that the unsteadiness is driven by the flow patterns in the draft tube where a vortex rope is present. However, until today the equivalent vortex rope parameters for common numerical 1D-models are a major source of uncertainty. In this work, a new optimization-based grey box method for experimental vortex rope modelling and parameter identification is presented. The combination of analytical vortex rope and test rig modelling and the usage of dynamic measurements allow the identification of the unknown vortex rope parameters. Upscaling from model to prototype size is achieved via existing nondimensional parameters. In this work, a new experimental setup and system identification method is proposed which are suitable for the determination of the full set of part load vortex rope parameters in the lab. For the vortex rope, a symmetric model with cavity compliance, bulk viscosity and two pressure excitation sources is developed and implemented which shows the best correspondence with available measurement data. Due to the non-dimensional parameter definition, scaling is possible. This finally provides a complete method for the prediction of prototype part-load pressure and power oscillations. Since the proposed method is based on a simple limited control domain, limited modelling effort and also small modelling uncertainties are some major advantages. Due to the generality of the approach, a future application to other operating conditions such as full load will be straightforward.

  1. Parameter Estimation of a Multistate Model for an Aging Piece of Equipment under Condition-Based Maintenance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qihong Duan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We study a multistate model for an aging piece of equipment under condition-based maintenance and apply an expectation maximization algorithm to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters. Because of the monitoring discontinuity, we cannot observe any state's duration. The observation consists of the equipment's state at an inspection or right after a repair. Based on a proper construction of stochastic processes involved in the model, calculation of some probabilities and expectations becomes tractable. Using these probabilities and expectations, we can apply an expectation maximization algorithm to estimate the parameters in the model. We carry out simulation studies to test the accuracy and the efficiency of the algorithm.

  2. Tandem Strip Mill’s Multi-parameter Coupling Dynamic Modeling Based on the Thickness Control

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    PENG Yan; ZHANG Yang; SUN Jianliang; ZANG Yong

    2015-01-01

    The rolling process is determined by the interaction of a number of different movements, during which the relative movement occurs between the vibrating roll system and the rolled piece, and the roll system’s vibration interacts with the strip’s deformation and rigid movement. So many parameters being involved leads to a complex mechanism of this coupling effect. Through testing and analyzing the vibration signals of the mill in the rolling process, the rolling mill’s coupled model is established with comprehensive consideration of the coupling interaction between the mill’s vertical vibration, its torsional vibration and the working roll’s horizontal vibration, and vibration characteristics of different forms of rolling mill’s vibration are analyzed under the coupling effect. With comprehensive attention to the relationship between the roll system, the moving strip and the rolling parameters’ dynamic properties, and also from the strip thickness control point of view, further research is done on the coupling mechanism between the roll system’s movement and the moving strip’s characteristics in the rolling process. As a result, the law of inertial coupling and the stiffness coupling effect caused by different forms of the roll system’s vibration is determined and the existence of nonlinear characteristics caused by the elastic deformation of moving strip is also found. Furthermore, a multi-parameter coupling-dynamic model is established which takes the tandem strip mill as its research object by making a detailed kinematics analysis of the roll system and using the principle of virtual work. The coupling-dynamic model proposes the instruction to describe the roll system’s movement, and analyzes its dynamic response and working stability, and provides a theoretical basis for the realization of the strip thickness’ dynamic control.

  3. Assessment of parameter uncertainty in hydrological model using a Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo-based multilevel-factorial-analysis method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Junlong; Li, Yongping; Huang, Guohe; Chen, Xi; Bao, Anming

    2016-07-01

    Without a realistic assessment of parameter uncertainty, decision makers may encounter difficulties in accurately describing hydrologic processes and assessing relationships between model parameters and watershed characteristics. In this study, a Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo-based multilevel-factorial-analysis (MCMC-MFA) method is developed, which can not only generate samples of parameters from a well constructed Markov chain and assess parameter uncertainties with straightforward Bayesian inference, but also investigate the individual and interactive effects of multiple parameters on model output through measuring the specific variations of hydrological responses. A case study is conducted for addressing parameter uncertainties in the Kaidu watershed of northwest China. Effects of multiple parameters and their interactions are quantitatively investigated using the MCMC-MFA with a three-level factorial experiment (totally 81 runs). A variance-based sensitivity analysis method is used to validate the results of parameters' effects. Results disclose that (i) soil conservation service runoff curve number for moisture condition II (CN2) and fraction of snow volume corresponding to 50% snow cover (SNO50COV) are the most significant factors to hydrological responses, implying that infiltration-excess overland flow and snow water equivalent represent important water input to the hydrological system of the Kaidu watershed; (ii) saturate hydraulic conductivity (SOL_K) and soil evaporation compensation factor (ESCO) have obvious effects on hydrological responses; this implies that the processes of percolation and evaporation would impact hydrological process in this watershed; (iii) the interactions of ESCO and SNO50COV as well as CN2 and SNO50COV have an obvious effect, implying that snow cover can impact the generation of runoff on land surface and the extraction of soil evaporative demand in lower soil layers. These findings can help enhance the hydrological model

  4. Estimating a-priori kinematic wave model parameters based on regionalization for flash flood forecasting in the Conterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vergara, Humberto; Kirstetter, Pierre-Emmanuel; Gourley, Jonathan J.; Flamig, Zachary L.; Hong, Yang; Arthur, Ami; Kolar, Randall

    2016-10-01

    This study presents a methodology for the estimation of a-priori parameters of the widely used kinematic wave approximation to the unsteady, 1-D Saint-Venant equations for hydrologic flow routing. The approach is based on a multi-dimensional statistical modeling of the macro scale spatial variability of rating curve parameters using a set of geophysical factors including geomorphology, hydro-climatology and land cover/land use over the Conterminous United States. The main goal of this study was to enable prediction at ungauged locations through regionalization of model parameters. The results highlight the importance of regional and local geophysical factors in uniquely defining characteristics of each stream reach conforming to physical theory of fluvial hydraulics. The application of the estimates is demonstrated through a hydrologic modeling evaluation of a deterministic forecasting system performed on 1672 gauged basins and 47,563 events extracted from a 10-year simulation. Considering the mean concentration time of the basins of the study and the target application on flash flood forecasting, the skill of the flow routing simulations is significantly high for peakflow and timing of peakflow estimation, and shows consistency as indicated by the large sample verification. The resulting a-priori estimates can be used in any hydrologic model that employs the kinematic wave model for flow routing. Furthermore, probabilistic estimates of kinematic wave parameters are enabled based on uncertainty information that is generated during the multi-dimensional statistical modeling. More importantly, the methodology presented in this study enables the estimation of the kinematic wave model parameters anywhere over the globe, thus allowing flood modeling in ungauged basins at regional to global scales.

  5. Is there any correlation between model-based perfusion parameters and model-free parameters of time-signal intensity curve on dynamic contrast enhanced MRI in breast cancer patients?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yi, Boram; Kang, Doo Kyoung; Kim, Tae Hee [Ajou University School of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Suwon, Gyeonggi-do (Korea, Republic of); Yoon, Dukyong [Ajou University School of Medicine, Department of Biomedical Informatics, Suwon (Korea, Republic of); Jung, Yong Sik; Kim, Ku Sang [Ajou University School of Medicine, Department of Surgery, Suwon (Korea, Republic of); Yim, Hyunee [Ajou University School of Medicine, Department of Pathology, Suwon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    To find out any correlation between dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) model-based parameters and model-free parameters, and evaluate correlations between perfusion parameters with histologic prognostic factors. Model-based parameters (Ktrans, Kep and Ve) of 102 invasive ductal carcinomas were obtained using DCE-MRI and post-processing software. Correlations between model-based and model-free parameters and between perfusion parameters and histologic prognostic factors were analysed. Mean Kep was significantly higher in cancers showing initial rapid enhancement (P = 0.002) and a delayed washout pattern (P = 0.001). Ve was significantly lower in cancers showing a delayed washout pattern (P = 0.015). Kep significantly correlated with time to peak enhancement (TTP) (ρ = -0.33, P < 0.001) and washout slope (ρ = 0.39, P = 0.002). Ve was significantly correlated with TTP (ρ = 0.33, P = 0.002). Mean Kep was higher in tumours with high nuclear grade (P = 0.017). Mean Ve was lower in tumours with high histologic grade (P = 0.005) and in tumours with negative oestrogen receptor status (P = 0.047). TTP was shorter in tumours with negative oestrogen receptor status (P = 0.037). We could acquire general information about the tumour vascular physiology, interstitial space volume and pathologic prognostic factors by analyzing time-signal intensity curve without a complicated acquisition process for the model-based parameters. (orig.)

  6. Impact of DEM Resolution and Spatial Scale: Analysis of Influence Factors and Parameters on Physically Based Distributed Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanchen Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Physically based distributed hydrological models were used to describe small-scale hydrological information in detail. However, the sensitivity of the model to spatially varied parameters and inputs limits the accuracy for application. In this paper, relevant influence factors and sensitive parameters were analyzed to solve this problem. First, a set of digital elevation model (DEM resolutions and channel thresholds were generated to extract the hydrological influence factors. Second, a numerical relationship between sensitive parameters and influence factors was established to define parameters reasonably. Next, the topographic index (TI was computed to study the similarity. At last, simulation results were analyzed in two different ways: (1 to observe the change regularity of influence factors and sensitive parameters through the variation of DEM resolutions and channel thresholds and (2 to compare the simulation accuracy of the nested catchment, particularly in the subcatchments and interior grids. Increasing the grid size from 250 m to 1000 m, the TI increased from 9.08 to 11.16 and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE decreased from 0.77 to 0.75. Utilizing the parameters calculated by the established relationship, the simulation results show the same NSE in the outlet and a better NSE in the simple subcatchment than the calculated interior grids.

  7. Parameter estimation for a physics-based distributed hydrologic model using measured outflow fluxes and internal moisture states

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kampf, Stephanie K.; Burges, Stephen J.

    2007-12-01

    We use an inverse simulation strategy to estimate soil hydraulic parameter values for an extensively measured planar hillslope plot in Seattle, Washington, United States. Both the integrated (subsurface outflow) and internal (piezometer water levels, volumetric water contents) hydrologic responses are measured at the plot. Inverse simulation scenarios are configured in the physics-based variably saturated hydrologic model, HYDRUS-2D, for a nonhysteretic drainage scenario starting from saturated initial conditions. Multiple inverse simulations calibrate the model either to single-measurement time series or to combinations of multiple types of measurements. Inverse simulations calibrated to different types of measurements give a wide range of parameter combinations, including over 2 orders of magnitude in predicted saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks), in part because the calibrations to a single measurement type are poorly constrained and biased. Parameter values are better constrained with multiobjective inverse simulations (Ks from 30 to 55 cm h-1). All parameter combinations from inverse simulations were tested in 2-month-long continuous simulations of the plot flow response to natural precipitation and evapotranspiration. The long-term outflow response was predicted best (Nash-Sutcliffe E = 0.94) by the parameters from a multiobjective inverse simulation calibrated to both the outflow and the piezometer water levels. Overall results show that for an assumed nonhysteretic soil a physics-based hydrologic response model can be calibrated using one short-duration drainage-from-saturation event if both integrated (outflow) and internal (saturated water level) measurements are used as calibration objectives.

  8. Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Generation Forecasting Based on Multivariable Grey Theory Model with Parameter Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhifeng Zhong

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Owing to the environment, temperature, and so forth, photovoltaic power generation volume is always fluctuating and subsequently impacts power grid planning and operation seriously. Therefore, it is of great importance to make accurate prediction of the power generation of photovoltaic (PV system in advance. In order to improve the prediction accuracy, in this paper, a novel particle swarm optimization algorithm based multivariable grey theory model is proposed for short-term photovoltaic power generation volume forecasting. It is highlighted that, by integrating particle swarm optimization algorithm, the prediction accuracy of grey theory model is expected to be highly improved. In addition, large amounts of real data from two separate power stations in China are being employed for model verification. The experimental results indicate that, compared with the conventional grey model, the mean relative error in the proposed model has been reduced from 7.14% to 3.53%. The real practice demonstrates that the proposed optimization model outperforms the conventional grey model from both theoretical and practical perspectives.

  9. A Statistical Model for Estimation of Ichthyofauna Quality Based on Water Parameters in Oituz Bazin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Popescu Carmen

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Fish represents an important food source for people worldwide. Moreover, although considered a very old occupation, fishing continues to provide jobs, especially for the people living in the coastal countries. The quality of surface waters affects the quality of fish as a food source. For this reason, the present study aims to assess the quality of the ichthyofauna in the Oituz River and some of its tributaries using several parameters that have been computed based on the biometric data of the biological material gathered during 2004-2008, in correlation with the water pH and water temperature. The present paper also highlights some observations regarding the changes of the analyzed ecosystems, as well as some recommendations regarding the fish consumption in the studied basin, considered as a food source for humans.

  10. Particle swarm optimization algorithm based parameters estimation and control of epileptiform spikes in a neural mass model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shan, Bonan; Wang, Jiang; Deng, Bin; Wei, Xile; Yu, Haitao; Zhang, Zhen; Li, Huiyan

    2016-07-01

    This paper proposes an epilepsy detection and closed-loop control strategy based on Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm. The proposed strategy can effectively suppress the epileptic spikes in neural mass models, where the epileptiform spikes are recognized as the biomarkers of transitions from the normal (interictal) activity to the seizure (ictal) activity. In addition, the PSO algorithm shows capabilities of accurate estimation for the time evolution of key model parameters and practical detection for all the epileptic spikes. The estimation effects of unmeasurable parameters are improved significantly compared with unscented Kalman filter. When the estimated excitatory-inhibitory ratio exceeds a threshold value, the epileptiform spikes can be inhibited immediately by adopting the proportion-integration controller. Besides, numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method as well as the potential value for the model-based early seizure detection and closed-loop control treatment design.

  11. Calibration of a physically based, spatially distributed hydrological model in a glacierized basin: On the use of knowledge from glaciometeorological processes to constrain model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ragettli, S.; Pellicciotti, F.

    2012-03-01

    In the Dry Andes of central Chile, summer water resources originate mostly from snowmelt and ice melt. We use the physically based, spatially distributed hydrological model TOPKAPI to study the exchange between glaciers and climate in the upper Aconcagua River Basin during the summer season and identify the model parameters that are robust and transferable and those that are more dependent on calibration. TOPKAPI has recently been adapted to incorporate an enhanced temperature index approach for snow and ice melting. We suggest a calibration procedure that allows calibration of parameters in three steps by separating parameters governing distinct processes. We evaluate the parameters' transferability in time and in space by applying the model at two spatial scales. TOPKAPI's ability to simulate the relevant processes is tested against meteorological, ablation, and glacier runoff data measured on Juncal Norte Glacier during two glacier ablation seasons. The model was applied successfully to the climatic setting of the Dry Andes once its parameters were recalibrated. We found a clear distinction between parameters that are stable in time and those that need recalibration. The parameters of the melt model are transferable from one season to the other, while the parameters governing the extrapolation of meteorological input data and the routing of glacier meltwater need recalibration from one season to the other. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the model is most sensitive to the temperature lapse rate governing the extrapolation of air temperature from point measurements to the glacier scale and to the melt parameter that multiplies the shortwave radiation balance.

  12. Modeling and Extraction of Parameters Based on Physical Effects in Bipolar Transistors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agnes Nagy

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The rising complexity of electronic systems, the reduction of components size, and the increment of working frequencies demand every time more accurate and stable integrated circuits, which require more precise simulation programs during the design process. PSPICE, widely used to simulate the general behavior of integrated circuits, does not consider many of the physical effects that can be found in real devices. Compact models, HICUM and MEXTRAM, have been developed over recent decades, in order to eliminate this deficiency. This paper presents some of the physical aspects that have not been studied so far, such as the expression of base-emitter voltage, including the emitter emission coefficient effect (n, physical explanation and simulation procedure, as well as a new extraction method for the diffusion potential VDE(T, based on the forward biased base-emitter capacitance, showing excellent agreement between experimental and theoretical results.

  13. Gestation-Specific Changes in the Anatomy and Physiology of Healthy Pregnant Women: An Extended Repository of Model Parameters for Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling in Pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dallmann, André; Ince, Ibrahim; Meyer, Michaela; Willmann, Stefan; Eissing, Thomas; Hempel, Georg

    2017-04-11

    In the past years, several repositories for anatomical and physiological parameters required for physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling in pregnant women have been published. While providing a good basis, some important aspects can be further detailed. For example, they did not account for the variability associated with parameters or were lacking key parameters necessary for developing more detailed mechanistic pregnancy physiologically based pharmacokinetic models, such as the composition of pregnancy-specific tissues. The aim of this meta-analysis was to provide an updated and extended database of anatomical and physiological parameters in healthy pregnant women that also accounts for changes in the variability of a parameter throughout gestation and for the composition of pregnancy-specific tissues. A systematic literature search was carried out to collect study data on pregnancy-related changes of anatomical and physiological parameters. For each parameter, a set of mathematical functions was fitted to the data and to the standard deviation observed among the data. The best performing functions were selected based on numerical and visual diagnostics as well as based on physiological plausibility. The literature search yielded 473 studies, 302 of which met the criteria to be further analyzed and compiled in a database. In total, the database encompassed 7729 data. Although the availability of quantitative data for some parameters remained limited, mathematical functions could be generated for many important parameters. Gaps were filled based on qualitative knowledge and based on physiologically plausible assumptions. The presented results facilitate the integration of pregnancy-dependent changes in anatomy and physiology into mechanistic population physiologically based pharmacokinetic models. Such models can ultimately provide a valuable tool to investigate the pharmacokinetics during pregnancy in silico and support informed decision making regarding

  14. Complex step-based low-rank extended Kalman filtering for state-parameter estimation in subsurface transport models

    KAUST Repository

    El Gharamti, Mohamad

    2014-02-01

    The accuracy of groundwater flow and transport model predictions highly depends on our knowledge of subsurface physical parameters. Assimilation of contaminant concentration data from shallow dug wells could help improving model behavior, eventually resulting in better forecasts. In this paper, we propose a joint state-parameter estimation scheme which efficiently integrates a low-rank extended Kalman filtering technique, namely the Singular Evolutive Extended Kalman (SEEK) filter, with the prominent complex-step method (CSM). The SEEK filter avoids the prohibitive computational burden of the Extended Kalman filter by updating the forecast along the directions of error growth only, called filter correction directions. CSM is used within the SEEK filter to efficiently compute model derivatives with respect to the state and parameters along the filter correction directions. CSM is derived using complex Taylor expansion and is second order accurate. It is proven to guarantee accurate gradient computations with zero numerical round-off errors, but requires complexifying the numerical code. We perform twin-experiments to test the performance of the CSM-based SEEK for estimating the state and parameters of a subsurface contaminant transport model. We compare the efficiency and the accuracy of the proposed scheme with two standard finite difference-based SEEK filters as well as with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). Assimilation results suggest that the use of the CSM in the context of the SEEK filter may provide up to 80% more accurate solutions when compared to standard finite difference schemes and is competitive with the EnKF, even providing more accurate results in certain situations. We analyze the results based on two different observation strategies. We also discuss the complexification of the numerical code and show that this could be efficiently implemented in the context of subsurface flow models. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

  15. SAT-MAP-CLIMATE project results[SATellite base bio-geophysical parameter MAPping and aggregation modelling for CLIMATE models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bay Hasager, C.; Woetmann Nielsen, N.; Soegaard, H.; Boegh, E.; Hesselbjerg Christensen, J.; Jensen, N.O.; Schultz Rasmussen, M.; Astrup, P.; Dellwik, E.

    2002-08-01

    Earth Observation (EO) data from imaging satellites are analysed with respect to albedo, land and sea surface temperatures, land cover types and vegetation parameters such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the leaf area index (LAI). The observed parameters are used in the DMI-HIRLAM-D05 weather prediction model in order to improve the forecasting. The effect of introducing actual sea surface temperatures from NOAA AVHHR compared to climatological mean values, shows a more pronounced land-sea breeze effect which is also observable in field observations. The albedo maps from NOAA AVHRR are rather similar to the climatological mean values so for the HIRLAM model this is insignicant, yet most likely of some importance in the HIRHAM regional climate model. Land cover type maps are assigned local roughness values determined from meteorological field observations. Only maps with a spatial resolution around 25 m can adequately map the roughness variations of the typical patch size distribution in Denmark. A roughness map covering Denmark is aggregated (ie area-average non-linearly) by a microscale aggregation model that takes the non-linear turbulent responses of each roughness step change between patches in an arbitrary pattern into account. The effective roughnesses are calculated into a 15 km by 15 km grid for the HIRLAM model. The effect of hedgerows is included as an added roughness effect as a function of hedge density mapped from a digital vector map. Introducing the new effective roughness maps into the HIRLAM model appears to remedy on the seasonal wind speed bias over land and sea in spring. A new parameterisation on the effective roughness for scalar surface fluxes is developed and tested on synthetic data. Further is a method for the estimation the evapotranspiration from albedo, surface temperatures and NDVI succesfully compared to field observations. The HIRLAM predictions of water vapour at 12 GMT are used for atmospheric correction of

  16. Estimating parameters and hidden variables in non-linear state-space models based on ODEs for biological networks inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quach, Minh; Brunel, Nicolas; d'Alché-Buc, Florence

    2007-12-01

    Statistical inference of biological networks such as gene regulatory networks, signaling pathways and metabolic networks can contribute to build a picture of complex interactions that take place in the cell. However, biological systems considered as dynamical, non-linear and generally partially observed processes may be difficult to estimate even if the structure of interactions is given. Using the same approach as Sitz et al. proposed in another context, we derive non-linear state-space models from ODEs describing biological networks. In this framework, we apply Unscented Kalman Filtering (UKF) to the estimation of both parameters and hidden variables of non-linear state-space models. We instantiate the method on a transcriptional regulatory model based on Hill kinetics and a signaling pathway model based on mass action kinetics. We successfully use synthetic data and experimental data to test our approach. This approach covers a large set of biological networks models and gives rise to simple and fast estimation algorithms. Moreover, the Bayesian tool used here directly provides uncertainty estimates on parameters and hidden states. Let us also emphasize that it can be coupled with structure inference methods used in Graphical Probabilistic Models. Matlab code available on demand.

  17. A PK-PD model-based assessment of sugammadex effects on coagulation parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosch, Rolien; van Lierop, Marie-José; de Kam, Pieter-Jan; Kruithof, Annelieke C; Burggraaf, Jacobus; de Greef, Rik; Visser, Sandra A G; Johnson-Levonas, Amy O; Kleijn, Huub-Jan

    2016-03-10

    Exposure-response analyses of sugammadex on activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT) and prothrombin time international normalized ratio (PT(INR)) were performed using data from two clinical trials in which subjects were co-treated with anti-coagulants, providing a framework to predict these responses in surgical patients on thromboprophylactic doses of low molecular weight or unfractionated heparin. Sugammadex-mediated increases in APTT and PT(INR) were described with a direct effect model, and this relationship was similar in the presence or absence of anti-coagulant therapy in either healthy volunteers or surgical patients. In surgical patients on thromboprophylactic therapy, model-based predictions showed 13.1% and 22.3% increases in respectively APTT and PT(INR) within 30min after administration of 16mg/kg sugammadex. These increases remain below thresholds seen following treatment with standard anti-coagulant therapy and were predicted to be short-lived paralleling the rapid decline in sugammadex plasma concentrations. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Open-circuit sensitivity model based on empirical parameters for a capacitive-type MEMS acoustic sensor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jaewoo; Jeon, J. H.; Je, C. H.; Lee, S. Q.; Yang, W. S.; Lee, S.-G.

    2016-03-01

    An empirical-based open-circuit sensitivity model for a capacitive-type MEMS acoustic sensor is presented. To intuitively evaluate the characteristic of the open-circuit sensitivity, the empirical-based model is proposed and analysed by using a lumped spring-mass model and a pad test sample without a parallel plate capacitor for the parasitic capacitance. The model is composed of three different parameter groups: empirical, theoretical, and mixed data. The empirical residual stress from the measured pull-in voltage of 16.7 V and the measured surface topology of the diaphragm were extracted as +13 MPa, resulting in the effective spring constant of 110.9 N/m. The parasitic capacitance for two probing pads including the substrate part was 0.25 pF. Furthermore, to verify the proposed model, the modelled open-circuit sensitivity was compared with the measured value. The MEMS acoustic sensor had an open- circuit sensitivity of -43.0 dBV/Pa at 1 kHz with a bias of 10 V, while the modelled open- circuit sensitivity was -42.9 dBV/Pa, which showed good agreement in the range from 100 Hz to 18 kHz. This validates the empirical-based open-circuit sensitivity model for designing capacitive-type MEMS acoustic sensors.

  19. X-parameter Based GaN Device Modeling and its Application to a High-efficiency PA Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Yelin; Nielsen, Troels Studsgaard; Jensen, Ole Kiel

    2014-01-01

    X-parameters are supersets of S-parameters and applicable to both linear and nonlinear system modeling. In this paper, a packaged 6 W Gallium Nitride (GaN) RF power transistor is modeled using load-dependent X-parameters by simulations. During the device characterization the load impedance is tuned...

  20. Rotor Position Sensorless Control and Its Parameter Sensitivity of Permanent Magnet Motor Based on Model Reference Adaptive System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohara, Masaki; Noguchi, Toshihiko

    This paper describes a new method for a rotor position sensorless control of a surface permanent magnet synchronous motor based on a model reference adaptive system (MRAS). This method features the MRAS in a current control loop to estimate a rotor speed and position by using only current sensors. This method as well as almost all the conventional methods incorporates a mathematical model of the motor, which consists of parameters such as winding resistances, inductances, and an induced voltage constant. Hence, the important thing is to investigate how the deviation of these parameters affects the estimated rotor position. First, this paper proposes a structure of the sensorless control applied in the current control loop. Next, it proves the stability of the proposed method when motor parameters deviate from the nominal values, and derives the relationship between the estimated position and the deviation of the parameters in a steady state. Finally, some experimental results are presented to show performance and effectiveness of the proposed method.

  1. Model updating of a full-scale FE model with nonlinear constraint equations and sensitivity-based cluster analysis for updating parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, Jinwoo; Smyth, Andrew W.

    2017-01-01

    The objective of structural model updating is to reduce inherent modeling errors in Finite Element (FE) models due to simplifications, idealized connections, and uncertainties of material properties. Updated FE models, which have less discrepancies with real structures, give more precise predictions of dynamic behaviors for future analyses. However, model updating becomes more difficult when applied to civil structures with a large number of structural components and complicated connections. In this paper, a full-scale FE model of a major long-span bridge has been updated for improved consistency with real measured data. Two methods are applied to improve the model updating process. The first method focuses on improving the agreement of the updated mode shapes with the measured data. A nonlinear inequality constraint equation is used to an optimization procedure, providing the capability to regulate updated mode shapes to remain within reasonable agreements with those observed. An interior point algorithm deals with nonlinearity in the objective function and constraints. The second method finds very efficient updating parameters in a more systematic way. The selection of updating parameters in FE models is essential to have a successful updating result because the parameters are directly related to the modal properties of dynamic systems. An in-depth sensitivity analysis is carried out in an effort to precisely understand the effects of physical parameters in the FE model on natural frequencies. Based on the sensitivity analysis, cluster analysis is conducted to find a very efficient set of updating parameters.

  2. Mathematical modeling and analysis of WEDM machining parameters of nickel-based super alloy using response surface methodology

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    M P GARG; ANISH KUMAR; C K SAHU

    2017-06-01

    Inconel 625 is one of the most versatile nickel-based super alloy used in the aerospace, automobile, chemical processing, oil refining, marine, waste treatment, pulp and paper, and power industries. Wire electrical discharge machining (WEDM) is the process considered in the present text for machining of Inconel 625 as it can provide an effective solution for machining ultra-hard, high-strength and temperature-resistant materials and alloys, overcoming the constraints of the conventional processes. The present work is mainly focused on the analysis and optimization of the WEDM process parameters of Inconel 625. The four machining parameters, that is, pulse on time, pulse off time, spark gap voltage and wire feed have been varied to investigate their effects onthree output responses, such as cutting speed, gap current, and surface roughness. Response surface methodology was used to develop the experimental models. The parametric analysis-based results revealed that pulse on time and pulse off time were significant, spark gap voltage is the least significant, and wire feed as a single factor is insignificant. Multi-objective optimization technique was employed using desirability approach to obtain theoptimal parameters setting. Furthermore, surface topography in terms of machining parameters revealed that pulse on time and pulse off time significantly deteriorate the surface of the machined samples, which produce thedeeper, wider overlapping craters and globules of debris.

  3. Sequence-based Parameter Estimation for an Epidemiological Temporal Aftershock Forecasting Model using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jalayer, Fatemeh; Ebrahimian, Hossein

    2014-05-01

    Introduction The first few days elapsed after the occurrence of a strong earthquake and in the presence of an ongoing aftershock sequence are quite critical for emergency decision-making purposes. Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models are used frequently for forecasting the spatio-temporal evolution of seismicity in the short-term (Ogata, 1988). The ETAS models are epidemic stochastic point process models in which every earthquake is a potential triggering event for subsequent earthquakes. The ETAS model parameters are usually calibrated a priori and based on a set of events that do not belong to the on-going seismic sequence (Marzocchi and Lombardi 2009). However, adaptive model parameter estimation, based on the events in the on-going sequence, may have several advantages such as, tuning the model to the specific sequence characteristics, and capturing possible variations in time of the model parameters. Simulation-based methods can be employed in order to provide a robust estimate for the spatio-temporal seismicity forecasts in a prescribed forecasting time interval (i.e., a day) within a post-main shock environment. This robust estimate takes into account the uncertainty in the model parameters expressed as the posterior joint probability distribution for the model parameters conditioned on the events that have already occurred (i.e., before the beginning of the forecasting interval) in the on-going seismic sequence. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation scheme is used herein in order to sample directly from the posterior probability distribution for ETAS model parameters. Moreover, the sequence of events that is going to occur during the forecasting interval (and hence affecting the seismicity in an epidemic type model like ETAS) is also generated through a stochastic procedure. The procedure leads to two spatio-temporal outcomes: (1) the probability distribution for the forecasted number of events, and (2) the uncertainty in estimating the

  4. Quantitative assessment of key parameters in qualitative vulnerability methods applied in karst systems based on an integrated numerical modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doummar, Joanna; Kassem, Assaad

    2017-04-01

    In the framework of a three-year PEER (USAID/NSF) funded project, flow in a Karst system in Lebanon (Assal) dominated by snow and semi arid conditions was simulated and successfully calibrated using an integrated numerical model (MIKE-She 2016) based on high resolution input data and detailed catchment characterization. Point source infiltration and fast flow pathways were simulated by a bypass function and a high conductive lens respectively. The approach consisted of identifying all the factors used in qualitative vulnerability methods (COP, EPIK, PI, DRASTIC, GOD) applied in karst systems and to assess their influence on recharge signals in the different hydrological karst compartments (Atmosphere, Unsaturated zone and Saturated zone) based on the integrated numerical model. These parameters are usually attributed different weights according to their estimated impact on Groundwater vulnerability. The aim of this work is to quantify the importance of each of these parameters and outline parameters that are not accounted for in standard methods, but that might play a role in the vulnerability of a system. The spatial distribution of the detailed evapotranspiration, infiltration, and recharge signals from atmosphere to unsaturated zone to saturated zone was compared and contrasted among different surface settings and under varying flow conditions (e.g., in varying slopes, land cover, precipitation intensity, and soil properties as well point source infiltration). Furthermore a sensitivity analysis of individual or coupled major parameters allows quantifying their impact on recharge and indirectly on vulnerability. The preliminary analysis yields a new methodology that accounts for most of the factors influencing vulnerability while refining the weights attributed to each one of them, based on a quantitative approach.

  5. Parameter estimation in physically-based integrated hydrological models with the ensemble Kalman filter: a practical application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botto, Anna; Camporese, Matteo

    2017-04-01

    Hydrological models allow scientists to predict the response of water systems under varying forcing conditions. In particular, many physically-based integrated models were recently developed in order to understand the fundamental hydrological processes occurring at the catchment scale. However, the use of this class of hydrological models is still relatively limited, as their prediction skills heavily depend on reliable parameter estimation, an operation that is never trivial, being normally affected by large uncertainty and requiring huge computational effort. The objective of this work is to test the potential of data assimilation to be used as an inverse modeling procedure for the broad class of integrated hydrological models. To pursue this goal, a Bayesian data assimilation (DA) algorithm based on a Monte Carlo approach, namely the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), is combined with the CATchment HYdrology (CATHY) model. In this approach, input variables (atmospheric forcing, soil parameters, initial conditions) are statistically perturbed providing an ensemble of realizations aimed at taking into account the uncertainty involved in the process. Each realization is propagated forward by the CATHY hydrological model within a parallel R framework, developed to reduce the computational effort. When measurements are available, the EnKF is used to update both the system state and soil parameters. In particular, four different assimilation scenarios are applied to test the capability of the modeling framework: first only pressure head or water content are assimilated, then, the combination of both, and finally both pressure head and water content together with the subsurface outflow. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach in a real-world scenario, an artificial hillslope was designed and built to provide real measurements for the DA analyses. The experimental facility, located in the Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering of the

  6. On parameter estimation in deformable models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fisker, Rune; Carstensen, Jens Michael

    1998-01-01

    Deformable templates have been intensively studied in image analysis through the last decade, but despite its significance the estimation of model parameters has received little attention. We present a method for supervised and unsupervised model parameter estimation using a general Bayesian...... method is based on a modified version of the EM algorithm. Experimental results for a deformable template used for textile inspection are presented...

  7. Purification of Monoclonal Antibodies Using a Fiber Based Cation-Exchange Stationary Phase: Parameter Determination and Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Schwellenbach

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Monoclonal antibodies (mAb currently dominate the market for protein therapeutics. Because chromatography unit operations are critical for the purification of therapeutic proteins, the process integration of novel chromatographic stationary phases, driven by the demand for more economic process schemes, is a field of ongoing research. Within this study it was demonstrated that the description and prediction of mAb purification on a novel fiber based cation-exchange stationary phase can be achieved using a physico-chemical model. All relevant mass-transport phenomena during a bind and elute chromatographic cycle, namely convection, axial dispersion, boundary layer mass-transfer, and the salt dependent binding behavior in the fiber bed were described. This work highlights the combination of model adaption, simulation, and experimental parameter determination through separate measurements, correlations, or geometric considerations, independent from the chromatographic cycle. The salt dependent binding behavior of a purified mAb was determined by the measurement of adsorption isotherms using batch adsorption experiments. Utilizing a combination of size exclusion and protein A chromatography as analytic techniques, this approach can be extended to a cell culture broth, describing the salt dependent binding behavior of multiple components. Model testing and validation was performed with experimental bind and elute cycles using purified mAb as well as a clarified cell culture broth. A comparison between model calculations and experimental data showed a good agreement. The influence of the model parameters is discussed in detail.

  8. A Modular GIS-Based Software Architecture for Model Parameter Estimation using the Method of Anchored Distributions (MAD)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ames, D. P.; Osorio-Murillo, C.; Over, M. W.; Rubin, Y.

    2012-12-01

    The Method of Anchored Distributions (MAD) is an inverse modeling technique that is well-suited for estimation of spatially varying parameter fields using limited observations and Bayesian methods. This presentation will discuss the design, development, and testing of a free software implementation of the MAD technique using the open source DotSpatial geographic information system (GIS) framework, R statistical software, and the MODFLOW groundwater model. This new tool, dubbed MAD-GIS, is built using a modular architecture that supports the integration of external analytical tools and models for key computational processes including a forward model (e.g. MODFLOW, HYDRUS) and geostatistical analysis (e.g. R, GSLIB). The GIS-based graphical user interface provides a relatively simple way for new users of the technique to prepare the spatial domain, to identify observation and anchor points, to perform the MAD analysis using a selected forward model, and to view results. MAD-GIS uses the Managed Extensibility Framework (MEF) provided by the Microsoft .NET programming platform to support integration of different modeling and analytical tools at run-time through a custom "driver." Each driver establishes a connection with external programs through a programming interface, which provides the elements for communicating with core MAD software. This presentation gives an example of adapting the MODFLOW to serve as the external forward model in MAD-GIS for inferring the distribution functions of key MODFLOW parameters. Additional drivers for other models are being developed and it is expected that the open source nature of the project will engender the development of additional model drivers by 3rd party scientists.

  9. Geoelectrical parameter-based multivariate regression borehole yield model for predicting aquifer yield in managing groundwater resource sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kehinde Anthony Mogaji

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This study developed a GIS-based multivariate regression (MVR yield rate prediction model of groundwater resource sustainability in the hard-rock geology terrain of southwestern Nigeria. This model can economically manage the aquifer yield rate potential predictions that are often overlooked in groundwater resources development. The proposed model relates the borehole yield rate inventory of the area to geoelectrically derived parameters. Three sets of borehole yield rate conditioning geoelectrically derived parameters—aquifer unit resistivity (ρ, aquifer unit thickness (D and coefficient of anisotropy (λ—were determined from the acquired and interpreted geophysical data. The extracted borehole yield rate values and the geoelectrically derived parameter values were regressed to develop the MVR relationship model by applying linear regression and GIS techniques. The sensitivity analysis results of the MVR model evaluated at P ⩽ 0.05 for the predictors ρ, D and λ provided values of 2.68 × 10−05, 2 × 10−02 and 2.09 × 10−06, respectively. The accuracy and predictive power tests conducted on the MVR model using the Theil inequality coefficient measurement approach, coupled with the sensitivity analysis results, confirmed the model yield rate estimation and prediction capability. The MVR borehole yield prediction model estimates were processed in a GIS environment to model an aquifer yield potential prediction map of the area. The information on the prediction map can serve as a scientific basis for predicting aquifer yield potential rates relevant in groundwater resources sustainability management. The developed MVR borehole yield rate prediction mode provides a good alternative to other methods used for this purpose.

  10. Using multivariate statistical methods to model the electrospray ionization response of GXG tripeptides based on multiple physicochemical parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raji, M A; Frycák, P; Temiyasathit, C; Kim, S B; Mavromaras, G; Ahn, J-M; Schug, K A

    2009-07-01

    Response factors were determined for twelve GXG peptides (where G stands for glycine and X is any of alanine [A], arginine [R], asparagine [N], aspartic acid [D], glycine [G], histidine [H], leucine [L], lysine [K], phenylalanine [F], serine [S], tyrosine [Y], valine [V]) by electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (ESI-MS). The response factors were measured using a novel flow injection method. This new method is based on the Gaussian distribution of analyte concentration resulting from band-broadening dispersion experienced by the analyte upon passage through an extended volume of PEEK tubing. This method removes the need for preparing a discrete series of standard solutions to assess concentration-dependent response. Relative response factors were calculated for each peptide with reference to GGG. The observed trends in the relative response factors were correlated with several analyte physicochemical parameters, chosen based on current understanding of ion release from charged droplets during the ESI process. These include analyte properties: nonpolar surface area; polar surface area; gas-phase basicity; proton affinity; and Log D. Multivariate statistical analysis using multiple linear regression, decision tree, and support vector regression models were investigated to assess their potential for predicting ESI response based on the analyte properties. The support vector regression model was more versatile and produced the least predictive error following 12-fold cross-validation. The effect of variation in solution pH on the relative response factors is highlighted, as evidenced by the different predictive models obtained for peptide response at two pH values (pH = 6.0 and 9.0). The relationship between physicochemical parameters and associated ionization efficiencies for GXG tripeptides is discussed based on the equilibrium partitioning model. Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. Short-Term Solar Irradiance Forecasting Model Based on Artificial Neural Network Using Statistical Feature Parameters

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Fei; Mi, Zengqiang; Su, Shi; Zhao, Hongshan

    2012-01-01

    Short-term solar irradiance forecasting (STSIF) is of great significance for the optimal operation and power predication of grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) plants. However, STSIF is very complex to handle due to the random and nonlinear characteristics of solar irradiance under changeable weather conditions. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is suitable for STSIF modeling and many research works on this topic are presented, but the conciseness and robustness of the existing models still need t...

  12. Final Report for NFE-07-00912: Development of Model Fuels Experimental Engine Data Base & Kinetic Modeling Parameter Sets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bunting, Bruce G [ORNL

    2012-10-01

    The automotive and engine industries are in a period of very rapid change being driven by new emission standards, new types of after treatment, new combustion strategies, the introduction of new fuels, and drive for increased fuel economy and efficiency. The rapid pace of these changes has put more pressure on the need for modeling of engine combustion and performance, in order to shorten product design and introduction cycles. New combustion strategies include homogeneous charge compression ignition (HCCI), partial-premixed combustion compression ignition (PCCI), and dilute low temperature combustion which are being developed for lower emissions and improved fuel economy. New fuels include bio-fuels such as ethanol or bio-diesel, drop-in bio-derived fuels and those derived from new crude oil sources such as gas-to-liquids, coal-to-liquids, oil sands, oil shale, and wet natural gas. Kinetic modeling of the combustion process for these new combustion regimes and fuels is necessary in order to allow modeling and performance assessment for engine design purposes. In this research covered by this CRADA, ORNL developed and supplied experimental data related to engine performance with new fuels and new combustion strategies along with interpretation and analysis of such data and consulting to Reaction Design, Inc. (RD). RD performed additional analysis of this data in order to extract important parameters and to confirm engine and kinetic models. The data generated was generally published to make it available to the engine and automotive design communities and also to the Reaction Design Model Fuels Consortium (MFC).

  13. Mode choice model parameters estimation

    OpenAIRE

    Strnad, Irena

    2010-01-01

    The present work focuses on parameter estimation of two mode choice models: multinomial logit and EVA 2 model, where four different modes and five different trip purposes are taken into account. Mode choice model discusses the behavioral aspect of mode choice making and enables its application to a traffic model. Mode choice model includes mode choice affecting trip factors by using each mode and their relative importance to choice made. When trip factor values are known, it...

  14. Evaluating the environmental fate of pharmaceuticals using a level III model based on poly-parameter linear free energy relationships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zukowska, Barbara; Breivik, Knut; Wania, Frank

    2006-04-15

    We recently proposed how to expand the applicability of multimedia models towards polar organic chemicals by expressing environmental phase partitioning with the help of poly-parameter linear free energy relationships (PP-LFERs). Here we elaborate on this approach by applying it to three pharmaceutical substances. A PP-LFER-based version of a Level III fugacity model calculates overall persistence, concentrations and intermedia fluxes of polar and non-polar organic chemicals between air, water, soil and sediments at steady-state. Illustrative modeling results for the pharmaceuticals within a defined coastal region are presented and discussed. The model results are highly sensitive to the degradation rate in water and the equilibrium partitioning between organic carbon and water, suggesting that an accurate description of this particular partitioning equilibrium is essential in order to obtain reliable predictions of environmental fate. The PP-LFER based modeling approach furthermore illustrates that the greatest mobility in aqueous phases may be experienced by pharmaceuticals that combines a small molecular size with strong H-acceptor properties.

  15. Evaluating the environmental fate of pharmaceuticals using a level III model based on poly-parameter linear free energy relationships

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zukowska, Barbara [Department of Analytical Chemistry, Chemical Faculty, Gdansk University of Technology, 11/12 G. Narutowicza St., 80-952 Gdansk (Poland); Breivik, Knut [NILU- Norwegian Institute for Air Research, P.O. Box 100, NO-2027 Kjeller (Norway)]. E-mail: knut.breivik@nilu.no; Wania, Frank [Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto at Scarborough, 1265 Military Trail, Scarborough, Ontario, M1C 1A4 (Canada)

    2006-04-15

    We recently proposed how to expand the applicability of multimedia models towards polar organic chemicals by expressing environmental phase partitioning with the help of poly-parameter linear free energy relationships (PP-LFERs). Here we elaborate on this approach by applying it to three pharmaceutical substances. A PP-LFER-based version of a Level III fugacity model calculates overall persistence, concentrations and intermedia fluxes of polar and non-polar organic chemicals between air, water, soil and sediments at steady-state. Illustrative modeling results for the pharmaceuticals within a defined coastal region are presented and discussed. The model results are highly sensitive to the degradation rate in water and the equilibrium partitioning between organic carbon and water, suggesting that an accurate description of this particular partitioning equilibrium is essential in order to obtain reliable predictions of environmental fate. The PP-LFER based modeling approach furthermore illustrates that the greatest mobility in aqueous phases may be experienced by pharmaceuticals that combines a small molecular size with strong H-acceptor properties.

  16. Foliation-Based Parameter Tuning in a Model of the GnRH Pulse and Surge Generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clement, Frederique; Vidal, Alexandre

    2009-01-01

    We investigate a model of the GnRH pulse and surge generator, with the definite aim of constraining the model GnRH output with respect to a physiologically relevant list of specifications. The alternating pulse and surge pattern of secretion results from the interaction between a GnRH secreting system and a regulating system exhibiting slow-fast dynamics. The mechanisms underlying the behavior of the model are reviewed from the study of the Boundary-Layer System according to the dissection method principle. Using singular perturbation theory, we describe the sequence of bifurcations undergone by the regulating (FitzHugh-Nagumo) system, encompassing the rarely investigated case of homoclinic connection. Based on pure dynamical considerations, we restrict the space of parameter search for the regulating system and describe a foliation of this restricted space, whose leaves define constant duration ratios between the surge and the pulsatility phase in the whole system. We propose an algorithm to fix the parameter values also to meet the other prescribed ratios dealing with amplitude and frequency features of the secretion signal. We finally apply these results to illustrate the dynamics of GnRH secretion in the ovine species and the rhesus monkey.

  17. Robust estimation of hydrological model parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bárdossy

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available The estimation of hydrological model parameters is a challenging task. With increasing capacity of computational power several complex optimization algorithms have emerged, but none of the algorithms gives a unique and very best parameter vector. The parameters of fitted hydrological models depend upon the input data. The quality of input data cannot be assured as there may be measurement errors for both input and state variables. In this study a methodology has been developed to find a set of robust parameter vectors for a hydrological model. To see the effect of observational error on parameters, stochastically generated synthetic measurement errors were applied to observed discharge and temperature data. With this modified data, the model was calibrated and the effect of measurement errors on parameters was analysed. It was found that the measurement errors have a significant effect on the best performing parameter vector. The erroneous data led to very different optimal parameter vectors. To overcome this problem and to find a set of robust parameter vectors, a geometrical approach based on Tukey's half space depth was used. The depth of the set of N randomly generated parameters was calculated with respect to the set with the best model performance (Nash-Sutclife efficiency was used for this study for each parameter vector. Based on the depth of parameter vectors, one can find a set of robust parameter vectors. The results show that the parameters chosen according to the above criteria have low sensitivity and perform well when transfered to a different time period. The method is demonstrated on the upper Neckar catchment in Germany. The conceptual HBV model was used for this study.

  18. Monte-Carlo Simulations of Spin-Crossover Phenomena Based on a Vibronic Ising-like Model with Realistic Parameters

    CERN Document Server

    Ye, Hong-zhou; Jiang, Hong

    2014-01-01

    Materials with spin-crossover (SCO) properties hold great potentials in information storage and therefore have received a lot of concerns in the recent decades. The hysteresis phenomena accompanying SCO is attributed to the intermolecular cooperativity whose underlying mechanism may have a vibronic origin. In this work, a new vibronic Ising-like model in which the elastic coupling between SCO centers is included by considering harmonic stretching and bending (SAB) interactions is proposed and solved by Monte Carlo simulations. The key parameters in the new model, $k_1$ and $k_2$, corresponding to the elastic constant of the stretching and bending mode, respectively, can be directly related to the macroscopic bulk and shear modulus of the material in study, which can be readily estimated either based on experimental measurements or first-principles calculations. The convergence issue in the MC simulations of the thermal hysteresis has been carefully checked, and it was found that the stable hysteresis loop can...

  19. Natural vibration response based damage detection for an operating wind turbine via Random Coefficient Linear Parameter Varying AR modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avendaño-Valencia, L. D.; Fassois, S. D.

    2015-07-01

    The problem of damage detection in an operating wind turbine under normal operating conditions is addressed. This is characterized by difficulties associated with the lack of measurable excitation(s), the vibration response non-stationary nature, and its dependence on various types of uncertainties. To overcome these difficulties a stochastic approach based on Random Coefficient (RC) Linear Parameter Varying (LPV) AutoRegressive (AR) models is postulated. These models may effectively represent the non-stationary random vibration response under healthy conditions and subsequently used for damage detection through hypothesis testing. The performance of the method for damage and fault detection in an operating wind turbine is subsequently assessed via Monte Carlo simulations using the FAST simulation package.

  20. Dual mode adaptive fractional order PI controller with feedforward controller based on variable parameter model for quadruple tank process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Prasanta; Roy, Binoy Krishna

    2016-07-01

    The Quadruple Tank Process (QTP) is a well-known benchmark of a nonlinear coupled complex MIMO process having both minimum and nonminimum phase characteristics. This paper presents a novel self tuning type Dual Mode Adaptive Fractional Order PI controller along with an Adaptive Feedforward controller for the QTP. The controllers are designed based on a novel Variable Parameter Transfer Function model. The effectiveness of the proposed model and controllers is tested through numerical simulation and experimentation. Results reveal that the proposed controllers work successfully to track the reference signals in all ranges of output. A brief comparison with some of the earlier reported similar works is presented to show that the proposed control scheme has some advantages and better performances than several other similar works.

  1. Using model-based proposals for fast parameter inference on discrete state space, continuous-time Markov processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pooley, C M; Bishop, S C; Marion, G

    2015-06-06

    Bayesian statistics provides a framework for the integration of dynamic models with incomplete data to enable inference of model parameters and unobserved aspects of the system under study. An important class of dynamic models is discrete state space, continuous-time Markov processes (DCTMPs). Simulated via the Doob-Gillespie algorithm, these have been used to model systems ranging from chemistry to ecology to epidemiology. A new type of proposal, termed 'model-based proposal' (MBP), is developed for the efficient implementation of Bayesian inference in DCTMPs using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). This new method, which in principle can be applied to any DCTMP, is compared (using simple epidemiological SIS and SIR models as easy to follow exemplars) to a standard MCMC approach and a recently proposed particle MCMC (PMCMC) technique. When measurements are made on a single-state variable (e.g. the number of infected individuals in a population during an epidemic), model-based proposal MCMC (MBP-MCMC) is marginally faster than PMCMC (by a factor of 2-8 for the tests performed), and significantly faster than the standard MCMC scheme (by a factor of 400 at least). However, when model complexity increases and measurements are made on more than one state variable (e.g. simultaneously on the number of infected individuals in spatially separated subpopulations), MBP-MCMC is significantly faster than PMCMC (more than 100-fold for just four subpopulations) and this difference becomes increasingly large. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  2. A Model of Regularization Parameter Determination in Low-Dose X-Ray CT Reconstruction Based on Dictionary Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, X-ray computed tomography (CT is becoming widely used to reveal patient’s anatomical information. However, the side effect of radiation, relating to genetic or cancerous diseases, has caused great public concern. The problem is how to minimize radiation dose significantly while maintaining image quality. As a practical application of compressed sensing theory, one category of methods takes total variation (TV minimization as the sparse constraint, which makes it possible and effective to get a reconstruction image of high quality in the undersampling situation. On the other hand, a preliminary attempt of low-dose CT reconstruction based on dictionary learning seems to be another effective choice. But some critical parameters, such as the regularization parameter, cannot be determined by detecting datasets. In this paper, we propose a reweighted objective function that contributes to a numerical calculation model of the regularization parameter. A number of experiments demonstrate that this strategy performs well with better reconstruction images and saving of a large amount of time.

  3. Model parameters conditioning on regional hydrologic signatures for process-based design flood estimation in ungauged basins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biondi, Daniela; De Luca, Davide Luciano

    2015-04-01

    The use of rainfall-runoff models represents an alternative to statistical approaches (such as at-site or regional flood frequency analysis) for design flood estimation, and constitutes an answer to the increasing need for synthetic design hydrographs (SDHs) associated to a specific return period. However, the lack of streamflow observations and the consequent high uncertainty associated with parameter estimation, usually pose serious limitations to the use of process-based approaches in ungauged catchments, which in contrast represent the majority in practical applications. This work presents the application of a Bayesian procedure that, for a predefined rainfall-runoff model, allows for the assessment of posterior parameters distribution, using the limited and uncertain information available for the response of an ungauged catchment (Bulygina et al. 2009; 2011). The use of regional estimates of river flow statistics, interpreted as hydrological signatures that measure theoretically relevant system process behaviours (Gupta et al. 2008), within this framework represents a valuable option and has shown significant developments in recent literature to constrain the plausible model response and to reduce the uncertainty in ungauged basins. In this study we rely on the first three L-moments of annual streamflow maxima, for which regressions are available from previous studies (Biondi et al. 2012; Laio et al. 2011). The methodology was carried out for a catchment located in southern Italy, and used within a Monte Carlo scheme (MCs) considering both event-based and continuous simulation approaches for design flood estimation. The applied procedure offers promising perspectives to perform model calibration and uncertainty analysis in ungauged basins; moreover, in the context of design flood estimation, process-based methods coupled with MCs approach have the advantage of providing simulated floods uncertainty analysis that represents an asset in risk-based decision

  4. CAD model for circuit parameters of superconducting-based hybrid planar transmission lines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mohebbi, Hamid Reza; Hamed Majedi, A, E-mail: hmohebbi@maxwell.uwaterloo.c, E-mail: ahmajedi@maxwell.uwaterloo.c [Integrated Quantum Optoelectronics Lab (IQOL), Department of ECE, Institute for Quantum Computing (IQC), University of Waterloo, Waterloo, N2L 3G1 (Canada)

    2009-12-15

    Using the concept of surface impedance associated with a superconductor or normal conductor's plate, we extend the CAD (computer aided design) formalisms on modeling and simulation of superconducting and normal transmission lines (STL and NTL) in order to include hybrid transmission lines (HTL). STL and NTL are entirely made of superconductor or normal conductor materials, respectively. In this paper, HTL refers to a planar transmission line (TL) such as parallel plate (PPTL), microstrip ({mu}TL) and coplanar waveguide (CPW) whose ground plate is superconducting and whose top/center strip is a normal conductor or vice versa. We develop and present a set of closed-form equations in a tidy and succinct form for each configuration (STL, NTL and HTL) for widely-used planar TLs (PPTL, {mu}TL and CPW). They can be easily implemented in a systematic way by the user for the purpose of fast TL design. The results obtained with this CAD tool are compared with previously reported results in the literature, and good agreement is observed.

  5. Taurine improves the wound healing process in cutaneous leishmaniasis in mice model, based on stereological parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soheil Ashkani-Esfahani

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Cutaneous Leishmaniasis is a self-limiting disease caused by protozoan parasites of the genus Leishmania, which affects the skin with full-thickness wounds, which are prone to scar formation even after treatment. Taurine (Tu is one of the most abundant amino acids that has antioxidant and anti-inflammatory effects, which play an important role in the process of wound healing. Herein, we have investigated the effects of Tu on cutaneous Leishmaniasis wounds and L. major promastigotes. Materials and Methods: Eighteen mice were induced with Leishmaniasis wounds (with L. Major on the base of their tails and divided into three groups, T1: Treated with Tu injection, T2: Treated with Tu gel, and C: No treatment. Treatments were carried out every 24 hours for 21 days. The volume densities of the collagen bundles and vessels, vessel′s length density and diameter, and fibroblast populations were estimated by stereological methods. Flow cytometry was used in order to investigate the direct Tu effect on parasites. The Mann-Whitney U test was used and P ≤ 0.05 was considered to be statistically significant. Results: The numerical density of the fibroblasts, volume density of the collagen bundles, and length densities of the vessels in groups T1 and T2 were significantly higher than in group C (P < 0.05. The fibroblast numerical density of group T1 was higher than that of group T2 (P = 0.02. Incidentally, Tu had no direct effect on L. major parasites according to the flow cytometry analysis. Conclusion: Tu showed the ability to improve the wound healing process and tissue regeneration although it had no direct anti-leishmaniasis effect.

  6. The strong prognostic value of KELIM, a model-based parameter from CA 125 kinetics in ovarian cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    You, Benoit; Colomban, Olivier; Heywood, Mark;

    2013-01-01

    Unexpected results were recently reported about the poor surrogacy of Gynecologic Cancer Intergroup (GCIG) defined CA-125 response in recurrent ovarian cancer (ROC) patients. Mathematical modeling may help describe CA-125 decline dynamically and discriminate prognostic kinetic parameters....

  7. Using the ARTMO toolbox for automated retrieval of biophysical parameters through radiative transfer model inversion: Optimizing LUT-based inversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verrelst, J.; Rivera, J. P.; Leonenko, G.; Alonso, L.; Moreno, J.

    2012-04-01

    Radiative transfer (RT) modeling plays a key role for earth observation (EO) because it is needed to design EO instruments and to develop and test inversion algorithms. The inversion of a RT model is considered as a successful approach for the retrieval of biophysical parameters because of being physically-based and generally applicable. However, to the broader community this approach is considered as laborious because of its many processing steps and expert knowledge is required to realize precise model parameterization. We have recently developed a radiative transfer toolbox ARTMO (Automated Radiative Transfer Models Operator) with the purpose of providing in a graphical user interface (GUI) essential models and tools required for terrestrial EO applications such as model inversion. In short, the toolbox allows the user: i) to choose between various plant leaf and canopy RT models (e.g. models from the PROSPECT and SAIL family, FLIGHT), ii) to choose between spectral band settings of various air- and space-borne sensors or defining own sensor settings, iii) to simulate a massive amount of spectra based on a look up table (LUT) approach and storing it in a relational database, iv) to plot spectra of multiple models and compare them with measured spectra, and finally, v) to run model inversion against optical imagery given several cost options and accuracy estimates. In this work ARTMO was used to tackle some well-known problems related to model inversion. According to Hadamard conditions, mathematical models of physical phenomena are mathematically invertible if the solution of the inverse problem to be solved exists, is unique and depends continuously on data. This assumption is not always met because of the large number of unknowns and different strategies have been proposed to overcome this problem. Several of these strategies have been implemented in ARTMO and were here analyzed to optimize the inversion performance. Data came from the SPARC-2003 dataset

  8. Monte-Carlo Modeling of Parameters of a Subcritical Cascade Reactor Based on MSBR and LMFBR Technologies

    CERN Document Server

    Bznuni, S A; Zhamkochyan, V M; Polanski, A; Sosnin, A N; Khudaverdyan, A H

    2001-01-01

    Parameters of a subcritical cascade reactor driven by a proton accelerator and based on a primary lead-bismuth target, main reactor constructed analogously to the molten salt breeder (MSBR) reactor core and a booster-reactor analogous to the core of the BN-350 liquid metal cooled fast breeder reactor (LMFBR). It is shown by means of Monte-Carlo modeling that the reactor under study provides safe operation modes (k_{eff}=0.94-0.98), is apable to transmute effectively radioactive nuclear waste and reduces by an order of magnitude the requirements on the accelerator beam current. Calculations show that the maximal neutron flux in the thermal zone is 10^{14} cm^{12}\\cdot s^_{-1}, in the fast booster zone is 5.12\\cdot10^{15} cm^{12}\\cdot s{-1} at k_{eff}=0.98 and proton beam current I=2.1 mA.

  9. Nonlinear model-based control of the Czochralski process III: Proper choice of manipulated variables and controller parameter scheduling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neubert, M.; Winkler, J.

    2012-12-01

    This contribution continues an article series [1,2] about the nonlinear model-based control of the Czochralski crystal growth process. The key idea of the presented approach is to use a sophisticated combination of nonlinear model-based and conventional (linear) PI controllers for tracking of both, crystal radius and growth rate. Using heater power and pulling speed as manipulated variables several controller structures are possible. The present part tries to systematize the properties of the materials to be grown in order to get unambiguous decision criteria for a most profitable choice of the controller structure. For this purpose a material specific constant M called interface mobility and a more process specific constant S called system response number are introduced. While the first one summarizes important material properties like thermal conductivity and latent heat the latter one characterizes the process by evaluating the average axial thermal gradients at the phase boundary and the actual growth rate at which the crystal is grown. Furthermore these characteristic numbers are useful for establishing a scheduling strategy for the PI controller parameters in order to improve the controller performance. Finally, both numbers give a better understanding of the general thermal system dynamics of the Czochralski technique.

  10. Estimation of key parameters in adaptive neuron model according to firing patterns based on improved particle swarm optimization algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Chunhua; Wang, Jiang; Yi, Guosheng

    2017-03-01

    Estimation of ion channel parameters is crucial to spike initiation of neurons. The biophysical neuron models have numerous ion channel parameters, but only a few of them play key roles in the firing patterns of the models. So we choose three parameters featuring the adaptation in the Ermentrout neuron model to be estimated. However, the traditional particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is still easy to fall into local optimum and has the premature convergence phenomenon in the study of some problems. In this paper, we propose an improved method that uses a concave function and dynamic logistic chaotic mapping mixed to adjust the inertia weights of the fitness value, effectively improve the global convergence ability of the algorithm. The perfect predicting firing trajectories of the rebuilt model using the estimated parameters prove that only estimating a few important ion channel parameters can establish the model well and the proposed algorithm is effective. Estimations using two classic PSO algorithms are also compared to the improved PSO to verify that the algorithm proposed in this paper can avoid local optimum and quickly converge to the optimal value. The results provide important theoretical foundations for building biologically realistic neuron models.

  11. Using Parameters of Dynamic Pulse Function for 3d Modeling in LOD3 Based on Random Textures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alizadehashrafi, B.

    2015-12-01

    The pulse function (PF) is a technique based on procedural preprocessing system to generate a computerized virtual photo of the façade with in a fixed size square(Alizadehashrafi et al., 2009, Musliman et al., 2010). Dynamic Pulse Function (DPF) is an enhanced version of PF which can create the final photo, proportional to real geometry. This can avoid distortion while projecting the computerized photo on the generated 3D model(Alizadehashrafi and Rahman, 2013). The challenging issue that might be handled for having 3D model in LoD3 rather than LOD2, is the final aim that have been achieved in this paper. In the technique based DPF the geometries of the windows and doors are saved in an XML file schema which does not have any connections with the 3D model in LoD2 and CityGML format. In this research the parameters of Dynamic Pulse Functions are utilized via Ruby programming language in SketchUp Trimble to generate (exact position and deepness) the windows and doors automatically in LoD3 based on the same concept of DPF. The advantage of this technique is automatic generation of huge number of similar geometries e.g. windows by utilizing parameters of DPF along with defining entities and window layers. In case of converting the SKP file to CityGML via FME software or CityGML plugins the 3D model contains the semantic database about the entities and window layers which can connect the CityGML to MySQL(Alizadehashrafi and Baig, 2014). The concept behind DPF, is to use logical operations to project the texture on the background image which is dynamically proportional to real geometry. The process of projection is based on two vertical and horizontal dynamic pulses starting from upper-left corner of the background wall in down and right directions respectively based on image coordinate system. The logical one/zero on the intersections of two vertical and horizontal dynamic pulses projects/does not project the texture on the background image. It is possible to define

  12. Application of regional physically-based landslide early warning model: tuning of the input parameters and validation of the results

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Ambrosio, Michele; Tofani, Veronica; Rossi, Guglielmo; Salvatici, Teresa; Tacconi Stefanelli, Carlo; Rosi, Ascanio; Benedetta Masi, Elena; Pazzi, Veronica; Vannocci, Pietro; Catani, Filippo; Casagli, Nicola

    2017-04-01

    The Aosta Valley region is located in North-West Alpine mountain chain. The geomorphology of the region is characterized by steep slopes, high climatic and altitude (ranging from 400 m a.s.l of Dora Baltea's river floodplain to 4810 m a.s.l. of Mont Blanc) variability. In the study area (zone B), located in Eastern part of Aosta Valley, heavy rainfall of about 800-900 mm per year is the main landslides trigger. These features lead to a high hydrogeological risk in all territory, as mass movements interest the 70% of the municipality areas (mainly shallow rapid landslides and rock falls). An in-depth study of the geotechnical and hydrological properties of hillslopes controlling shallow landslides formation was conducted, with the aim to improve the reliability of deterministic model, named HIRESS (HIgh REsolution Stability Simulator). In particular, two campaigns of on site measurements and laboratory experiments were performed. The data obtained have been studied in order to assess the relationships existing among the different parameters and the bedrock lithology. The analyzed soils in 12 survey points are mainly composed of sand and gravel, with highly variable contents of silt. The range of effective internal friction angle (from 25.6° to 34.3°) and effective cohesion (from 0 kPa to 9.3 kPa) measured and the median ks (10E-6 m/s) value are consistent with the average grain sizes (gravelly sand). The data collected contributes to generate input map of parameters for HIRESS (static data). More static data are: volume weight, residual water content, porosity and grain size index. In order to improve the original formulation of the model, the contribution of the root cohesion has been also taken into account based on the vegetation map and literature values. HIRESS is a physically based distributed slope stability simulator for analyzing shallow landslide triggering conditions in real time and in large areas using parallel computational techniques. The software

  13. Modeling sugar cane yield with a process-based model from site to continental scale: uncertainties arising from model structure and parameter values

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Valade

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Agro-Land Surface Models (agro-LSM have been developed from the integration of specific crop processes into large-scale generic land surface models that allow calculating the spatial distribution and variability of energy, water and carbon fluxes within the soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum. When developing agro-LSM models, a particular attention must be given to the effects of crop phenology and management on the turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere, and the underlying water and carbon pools. A part of the uncertainty of Agro-LSM models is related to their usually large number of parameters. In this study, we quantify the parameter-values uncertainty in the simulation of sugar cane biomass production with the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS, using a multi-regional approach with data from sites in Australia, La Réunion and Brazil. In ORCHIDEE-STICS, two models are chained: STICS, an agronomy model that calculates phenology and management, and ORCHIDEE, a land surface model that calculates biomass and other ecosystem variables forced by STICS' phenology. First, the parameters that dominate the uncertainty of simulated biomass at harvest date are determined through a screening of 67 different parameters of both STICS and ORCHIDEE on a multi-site basis. Secondly, the uncertainty of harvested biomass attributable to those most sensitive parameters is quantified and specifically attributed to either STICS (phenology, management or to ORCHIDEE (other ecosystem variables including biomass through distinct Monte-Carlo runs. The uncertainty on parameter values is constrained using observations by calibrating the model independently at seven sites. In a third step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out by varying the most sensitive parameters to investigate their effects at continental scale. A Monte-Carlo sampling method associated with the calculation of Partial Ranked Correlation Coefficients is used to quantify the sensitivity of harvested

  14. Modeling sugarcane yield with a process-based model from site to continental scale: uncertainties arising from model structure and parameter values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valade, A.; Ciais, P.; Vuichard, N.; Viovy, N.; Caubel, A.; Huth, N.; Marin, F.; Martiné, J.-F.

    2014-06-01

    Agro-land surface models (agro-LSM) have been developed from the integration of specific crop processes into large-scale generic land surface models that allow calculating the spatial distribution and variability of energy, water and carbon fluxes within the soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum. When developing agro-LSM models, particular attention must be given to the effects of crop phenology and management on the turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere, and the underlying water and carbon pools. A part of the uncertainty of agro-LSM models is related to their usually large number of parameters. In this study, we quantify the parameter-values uncertainty in the simulation of sugarcane biomass production with the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS, using a multi-regional approach with data from sites in Australia, La Réunion and Brazil. In ORCHIDEE-STICS, two models are chained: STICS, an agronomy model that calculates phenology and management, and ORCHIDEE, a land surface model that calculates biomass and other ecosystem variables forced by STICS phenology. First, the parameters that dominate the uncertainty of simulated biomass at harvest date are determined through a screening of 67 different parameters of both STICS and ORCHIDEE on a multi-site basis. Secondly, the uncertainty of harvested biomass attributable to those most sensitive parameters is quantified and specifically attributed to either STICS (phenology, management) or to ORCHIDEE (other ecosystem variables including biomass) through distinct Monte Carlo runs. The uncertainty on parameter values is constrained using observations by calibrating the model independently at seven sites. In a third step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out by varying the most sensitive parameters to investigate their effects at continental scale. A Monte Carlo sampling method associated with the calculation of partial ranked correlation coefficients is used to quantify the sensitivity of harvested biomass to input

  15. Modeling sugar cane yield with a process-based model from site to continental scale: uncertainties arising from model structure and parameter values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valade, A.; Ciais, P.; Vuichard, N.; Viovy, N.; Huth, N.; Marin, F.; Martiné, J.-F.

    2014-01-01

    Agro-Land Surface Models (agro-LSM) have been developed from the integration of specific crop processes into large-scale generic land surface models that allow calculating the spatial distribution and variability of energy, water and carbon fluxes within the soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum. When developing agro-LSM models, a particular attention must be given to the effects of crop phenology and management on the turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere, and the underlying water and carbon pools. A part of the uncertainty of Agro-LSM models is related to their usually large number of parameters. In this study, we quantify the parameter-values uncertainty in the simulation of sugar cane biomass production with the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS, using a multi-regional approach with data from sites in Australia, La Réunion and Brazil. In ORCHIDEE-STICS, two models are chained: STICS, an agronomy model that calculates phenology and management, and ORCHIDEE, a land surface model that calculates biomass and other ecosystem variables forced by STICS' phenology. First, the parameters that dominate the uncertainty of simulated biomass at harvest date are determined through a screening of 67 different parameters of both STICS and ORCHIDEE on a multi-site basis. Secondly, the uncertainty of harvested biomass attributable to those most sensitive parameters is quantified and specifically attributed to either STICS (phenology, management) or to ORCHIDEE (other ecosystem variables including biomass) through distinct Monte-Carlo runs. The uncertainty on parameter values is constrained using observations by calibrating the model independently at seven sites. In a third step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out by varying the most sensitive parameters to investigate their effects at continental scale. A Monte-Carlo sampling method associated with the calculation of Partial Ranked Correlation Coefficients is used to quantify the sensitivity of harvested biomass to input

  16. Parameter Estimation of Partial Differential Equation Models

    KAUST Repository

    Xun, Xiaolei

    2013-09-01

    Partial differential equation (PDE) models are commonly used to model complex dynamic systems in applied sciences such as biology and finance. The forms of these PDE models are usually proposed by experts based on their prior knowledge and understanding of the dynamic system. Parameters in PDE models often have interesting scientific interpretations, but their values are often unknown and need to be estimated from the measurements of the dynamic system in the presence of measurement errors. Most PDEs used in practice have no analytic solutions, and can only be solved with numerical methods. Currently, methods for estimating PDE parameters require repeatedly solving PDEs numerically under thousands of candidate parameter values, and thus the computational load is high. In this article, we propose two methods to estimate parameters in PDE models: a parameter cascading method and a Bayesian approach. In both methods, the underlying dynamic process modeled with the PDE model is represented via basis function expansion. For the parameter cascading method, we develop two nested levels of optimization to estimate the PDE parameters. For the Bayesian method, we develop a joint model for data and the PDE and develop a novel hierarchical model allowing us to employ Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to make posterior inference. Simulation studies show that the Bayesian method and parameter cascading method are comparable, and both outperform other available methods in terms of estimation accuracy. The two methods are demonstrated by estimating parameters in a PDE model from long-range infrared light detection and ranging data. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. © 2013 American Statistical Association.

  17. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, C W [ed.

    1984-01-01

    This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base. (ACR)

  18. Delineating Parameter Unidentifiabilities in Complex Models

    CERN Document Server

    Raman, Dhruva V; Papachristodoulou, Antonis

    2016-01-01

    Scientists use mathematical modelling to understand and predict the properties of complex physical systems. In highly parameterised models there often exist relationships between parameters over which model predictions are identical, or nearly so. These are known as structural or practical unidentifiabilities, respectively. They are hard to diagnose and make reliable parameter estimation from data impossible. They furthermore imply the existence of an underlying model simplification. We describe a scalable method for detecting unidentifiabilities, and the functional relations defining them, for generic models. This allows for model simplification, and appreciation of which parameters (or functions thereof) cannot be estimated from data. Our algorithm can identify features such as redundant mechanisms and fast timescale subsystems, as well as the regimes in which such approximations are valid. We base our algorithm on a novel quantification of regional parametric sensitivity: multiscale sloppiness. Traditional...

  19. Effect of Correlations Between Model Parameters and Nuisance Parameters When Model Parameters are Fit to Data

    CERN Document Server

    Roe, Byron

    2013-01-01

    The effect of correlations between model parameters and nuisance parameters is discussed, in the context of fitting model parameters to data. Modifications to the usual $\\chi^2$ method are required. Fake data studies, as used at present, will not be optimum. Problems will occur for applications of the Maltoni-Schwetz \\cite{ms} theorem. Neutrino oscillations are used as examples, but the problems discussed here are general ones, which are often not addressed.

  20. DATA MODELING METHOD BASED ON PARTIAL LEAST SQUARE REGRESSION AND APPLICATION IN CORRELATION ANALYSIS OF THE STATOR BARS CONDITION PARAMETERS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李锐华; 高乃奎; 谢恒堃; 史维祥

    2004-01-01

    Objective To investigate various data message of the stator bars condition parameters under the condition that only a few samples are available, especially about correlation information between the nondestructive parameters and residual breakdown voltage of the stator bars. Methods Artificial stator bars is designed to simulate the generator bars. The partial didcharge( PD) and dielectric loss experiments are performed in order to obtain the nondestructive parameters, and the residual breakdown voltage acquired by AC damage experiment. In order to eliminate the dimension effect on measurement data, raw data is preprocessed by centered-compress. Based on the idea of extracting principal components, a partial least square (PLS) method is applied to screen and synthesize correlation information between the nondestructive parameters and residual breakdown voltage easily. Moreover, various data message about condition parameters are also discussed. Results Graphical analysis function of PLS is easily to understand various data message of the stator bars condition parameters. The analysis Results are consistent with result of aging testing. Conclusion The method can select and extract PLS components of condition parameters from sample data, and the problems of less samples and multicollinearity are solved effectively in regression analysis.

  1. Modeling Approach and Analysis of the Structural Parameters of an Inductively Coupled Plasma Etcher Based on a Regression Orthogonal Design

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHENG Jia; ZHU Yu; JI Linhong

    2012-01-01

    The geometry of an inductively coupled plasma (ICP) etcher is usually considered to be an important factor for determining both plasma and process uniformity over a large wafer. During the past few decades, these parameters were determined by the "trial and error" method, resulting in wastes of time and funds. In this paper, a new approach of regression orthogonal design with plasma simulation experiments is proposed to investigate the sensitivity of the structural parameters on the uniformity of plasma characteristics. The tool for simulating plasma is CFD-ACE+, which is commercial multi-physical modeling software that has been proven to be accurate for plasma simulation. The simulated experimental results are analyzed to get a regression equation on three structural parameters. Through this equation, engineers can compute the uniformity of the electron number density rapidly without modeling by CFD-ACE+. An optimization performed at the end produces good results.

  2. Using a variance-based sensitivity analysis for analyzing the relation between measurements and unknown parameters of a physical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, J.; Tiede, C.

    2011-05-01

    An implementation of uncertainty analysis (UA) and quantitative global sensitivity analysis (SA) is applied to the non-linear inversion of gravity changes and three-dimensional displacement data which were measured in and active volcanic area. A didactic example is included to illustrate the computational procedure. The main emphasis is placed on the problem of extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (E-FAST). This method produces the total sensitivity indices (TSIs), so that all interactions between the unknown input parameters are taken into account. The possible correlations between the output an the input parameters can be evaluated by uncertainty analysis. Uncertainty analysis results indicate the general fit between the physical model and the measurements. Results of the sensitivity analysis show quite different sensitivities for the measured changes as they relate to the unknown parameters of a physical model for an elastic-gravitational source. Assuming a fixed number of executions, thirty different seeds are observed to determine the stability of this method.

  3. Fusion strategies for selecting multiple tuning parameters for multivariate calibration and other penalty based processes: A model updating application for pharmaceutical analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tencate, Alister J. [Department of Chemistry, Idaho State University, Pocatello, ID 83209 (United States); Kalivas, John H., E-mail: kalijohn@isu.edu [Department of Chemistry, Idaho State University, Pocatello, ID 83209 (United States); White, Alexander J. [Department of Physics and Optical Engineering, Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology, Terre Huate, IN 47803 (United States)

    2016-05-19

    New multivariate calibration methods and other processes are being developed that require selection of multiple tuning parameter (penalty) values to form the final model. With one or more tuning parameters, using only one measure of model quality to select final tuning parameter values is not sufficient. Optimization of several model quality measures is challenging. Thus, three fusion ranking methods are investigated for simultaneous assessment of multiple measures of model quality for selecting tuning parameter values. One is a supervised learning fusion rule named sum of ranking differences (SRD). The other two are non-supervised learning processes based on the sum and median operations. The effect of the number of models evaluated on the three fusion rules are also evaluated using three procedures. One procedure uses all models from all possible combinations of the tuning parameters. To reduce the number of models evaluated, an iterative process (only applicable to SRD) is applied and thresholding a model quality measure before applying the fusion rules is also used. A near infrared pharmaceutical data set requiring model updating is used to evaluate the three fusion rules. In this case, calibration of the primary conditions is for the active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) of tablets produced in a laboratory. The secondary conditions for calibration updating is for tablets produced in the full batch setting. Two model updating processes requiring selection of two unique tuning parameter values are studied. One is based on Tikhonov regularization (TR) and the other is a variation of partial least squares (PLS). The three fusion methods are shown to provide equivalent and acceptable results allowing automatic selection of the tuning parameter values. Best tuning parameter values are selected when model quality measures used with the fusion rules are for the small secondary sample set used to form the updated models. In this model updating situation, evaluation of

  4. Effects of constitutive parameters on adiabatic shear localization for ductile metal based on JOHNSON-COOK and gradient plasticity models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Xue-bin

    2006-01-01

    By using the widely used JOHNSON-COOK model and the gradient-dependent plasticity to consider microstmctural effect beyond the occurrence of shear strain localization, the distributions of local plastic shear strain and deformation in adiabatic shear band(ASB) were analyzed. The peak local plastic shear strain is proportional to the average plastic shear strain, while it is inversely proportional to the critical plastic shear strain corresponding to the peak flow shear stress. The relative plastic shear deformation between the top and base of ASB depends on the thickness of ASB and the average plastic shear strain. A parametric study was carried out to study the influence of constitutive parameters on shear strain localization. Higher values of static shear strength and work to heat conversion factor lead to lower critical plastic shear strain so that the shear localization is more apparent at the same average plastic shear strain. Higher values of strain-hardening exponent, strain rate sensitive coefficient, melting point,thermal capacity and mass density result in higher critical plastic shear strain, leading to less apparent shear localization at the same average plastic shear strain. The strain rate sensitive coefficient has a minor influence on the critical plastic shear strain, the distributions of local plastic shear strain and deformation in ASB. The effect of strain-hardening modulus on the critical plastic shear strain is not monotonous. When the maximum critical plastic shear strain is reached, the least apparent shear localization occurs.

  5. Unscented Kalman filter with parameter identifiability analysis for the estimation of multiple parameters in kinetic models

    OpenAIRE

    Baker Syed; Poskar C; Junker Björn

    2011-01-01

    Abstract In systems biology, experimentally measured parameters are not always available, necessitating the use of computationally based parameter estimation. In order to rely on estimated parameters, it is critical to first determine which parameters can be estimated for a given model and measurement set. This is done with parameter identifiability analysis. A kinetic model of the sucrose accumulation in the sugar cane culm tissue developed by Rohwer et al. was taken as a test case model. Wh...

  6. Three-parameter-based streamflow elasticity model: application to MOPEX basins in the USA at annual and seasonal scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konapala, Goutam; Mishra, Ashok K.

    2016-07-01

    We present a three-parameter streamflow elasticity model as a function of precipitation, potential evaporation, and change in groundwater storage applicable at both seasonal and annual scales. The model was applied to 245 Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) basins spread across the continental USA. The analysis of the modified equation at annual and seasonal scales indicated that the groundwater and surface water storage change contributes significantly to the streamflow elasticity. Overall, in case of annual as well as seasonal water balances, precipitation has higher elasticity values when compared to both potential evapotranspiration and storage changes. The streamflow elasticities show significant nonlinear associations with the climate conditions of the catchments indicating a complex interplay between elasticities and climate variables with substantial seasonal variations.

  7. [Prediction model of net photosynthetic rate of ginseng under forest based on optimized parameters support vector machine].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Hai-wei; Yu, Hai-ye; Zhang, Lei

    2011-05-01

    Using K-fold cross validation method and two support vector machine functions, four kernel functions, grid-search, genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization, the authors constructed the support vector machine model of the best penalty parameter c and the best correlation coefficient. Using information granulation technology, the authors constructed P particle and epsilon particle about those factors affecting net photosynthetic rate, and reduced these dimensions of the determinant. P particle includes the percent of visible spectrum ingredients. Epsilon particle includes leaf temperature, scattering radiation, air temperature, and so on. It is possible to obtain the best correlation coefficient among photosynthetic effective radiation, visible spectrum and individual net photosynthetic rate by this technology. The authors constructed the training set and the forecasting set including photosynthetic effective radiation, P particle and epsilon particle. The result shows that epsilon-SVR-RBF-genetic algorithm model, nu-SVR-linear-grid-search model and nu-SVR-RBF-genetic algorithm model obtain the correlation coefficient of up to 97% about the forecasting set including photosynthetic effective radiation and P particle. The penalty parameter c of nu-SVR-linear-grid-search model is the minimum, so the model's generalization ability is the best. The authors forecasted the forecasting set including photosynthetic effective radiation, P particle and epsilon particle by the model, and the correlation coefficient is up to 96%.

  8. Estimation of anisotropy parameters for shales based on an improved rock physics model, part 2: case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Feng

    2017-03-01

    Part 1 of this paper presented an improved shale rock physics model to enable the prediction of anisotropy parameters from both vertical and horizontal well logs. The predicted elastic constants were demonstrated using the published laboratory measurements of a Greenhorn shale in paper 1, and are more accurate than the estimations in the existing literature. In this paper, this model is applied to the well log data of an Upper Triassic shale formation to predict the VTI anisotropy parameters, which are usually difficult to measure directly in the borehole. The effective elastic constants are calculated for solid clay, aligned clay-fluid-kerogen, a rotated clay-fluid-kerogen mixture and shale step by step using different effective medium theories. The input to this workflow includes the volume fraction of minerals, kerogen and two different pore spaces. Two parameters (the lamination index and pore aspect ratio) need to be inverted simultaneously by fitting the vertical or horizontal logs. An estimation of the anisotropy parameters from the vertical well logs uses a least square inversion in terms of C 33 and C 44. The result is demonstrated by calibration with the seismic amplitude versus angle (AVA) response. Correlations are found between the anisotropy parameters (ε and δ) and rock properties (pore aspect ratio, lamination index, clay content and total porosity). In the horizontal well, the anisotropy parameters are predicted by minimizing the objective function in terms of C 11 and C 44. The overestimated qP-wave velocity of clay-rich shales in the horizontal well is anisotropy-corrected and thus provides a more appropriate V p–V s relation. The impact of strong VTI anisotropy on Poisson’s ratio is also overcome by the anisotropy-correction, thus improving the brittleness characterization of shale reservoirs.

  9. Evaluation of vegetative fraction coverage (VFC) parameter for modeling urban heat fluxes using two remote sensing-based surface energy balance models of Landsat TM data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, K.

    2015-12-01

    Reliable estimation of the surface energy budgets over urban areas is crucial for many applications such as water resource management and weather forecasting. Among the urban heat fluxes required inputting parameters, the vegetative fraction coverage (VFC) factor is one of the most difficult to be retrieved over intra-urban scales. Traditional methods for the extraction of VFC from remote sensing data using vegetation indices such as NDVI were found to have large uncertainty due to its sensitivity to the surface heterogeneous characteristic. This study presents a Spectral Mixture Analysis (SMA) based approach of Landsat TM data to map the VFC for the use in the modeling of urban heat fluxes, in the case of Beijing, China. Two models (Two-Source model (TSEB) and Pixel Component Arranging and Comparing Algorithm (PCACA)), which have different input requirements and levels of complexity, but both owe operational capabilities, were adopted for evaluation of VFC on urban heat fluxes. A comparative analysis between NDVI-based and SMA-based urban VFC showed that the latter achieved more accurate VFC values for complex urban regions. Moreover, the SMA-based urban VFC could be utilized to produce a more detailed spatial variability in studied urban heat fluxes (i.e. Bowen ratio and latent heat flux (LE)) as well as a higher precision when used as input to both Big-Leaf and PCACA model. Our study also revealed that the LANDSAT TM retrieved VFC value is more sensitive in obtaining urban heat fluxes for Big-Leaf model relative than PCACA model. PCACA model may be more practical for surface heat flux research when the study region is relatively complex and the required parameters are insufficient. In addition, for the three selected metropolises (Beijing, Shijiazhuang and Suzhou) with dissimilar urban vegetation cover conditions, an exponential relationship was found obviously between the VFC and LE/VFC in terms of both overall and zonal analysis regarding on both TSEB and

  10. Estimation of the physico-chemical parameters of materials based on rare earth elements with the application of computational model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamaev, K.; Obkhodsky, A.; Popov, A.

    2016-01-01

    Computational model, technique and the basic principles of operation program complex for quantum-chemical calculations of material's physico-chemical parameters with rare earth elements are discussed. The calculating system is scalable and includes CPU and GPU computational resources. Control and operation of computational jobs and also Globus Toolkit 5 software provides the possibility to join computer users in a unified system of data processing with peer-to-peer architecture. CUDA software is used to integrate graphic processors into calculation system.

  11. Delineating parameter unidentifiabilities in complex models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raman, Dhruva V.; Anderson, James; Papachristodoulou, Antonis

    2017-03-01

    Scientists use mathematical modeling as a tool for understanding and predicting the properties of complex physical systems. In highly parametrized models there often exist relationships between parameters over which model predictions are identical, or nearly identical. These are known as structural or practical unidentifiabilities, respectively. They are hard to diagnose and make reliable parameter estimation from data impossible. They furthermore imply the existence of an underlying model simplification. We describe a scalable method for detecting unidentifiabilities, as well as the functional relations defining them, for generic models. This allows for model simplification, and appreciation of which parameters (or functions thereof) cannot be estimated from data. Our algorithm can identify features such as redundant mechanisms and fast time-scale subsystems, as well as the regimes in parameter space over which such approximations are valid. We base our algorithm on a quantification of regional parametric sensitivity that we call `multiscale sloppiness'. Traditionally, the link between parametric sensitivity and the conditioning of the parameter estimation problem is made locally, through the Fisher information matrix. This is valid in the regime of infinitesimal measurement uncertainty. We demonstrate the duality between multiscale sloppiness and the geometry of confidence regions surrounding parameter estimates made where measurement uncertainty is non-negligible. Further theoretical relationships are provided linking multiscale sloppiness to the likelihood-ratio test. From this, we show that a local sensitivity analysis (as typically done) is insufficient for determining the reliability of parameter estimation, even with simple (non)linear systems. Our algorithm can provide a tractable alternative. We finally apply our methods to a large-scale, benchmark systems biology model of necrosis factor (NF)-κ B , uncovering unidentifiabilities.

  12. Systematic parameter inference in stochastic mesoscopic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, Huan; Yang, Xiu; Li, Zhen; Karniadakis, George Em

    2017-02-01

    We propose a method to efficiently determine the optimal coarse-grained force field in mesoscopic stochastic simulations of Newtonian fluid and polymer melt systems modeled by dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) and energy conserving dissipative particle dynamics (eDPD). The response surfaces of various target properties (viscosity, diffusivity, pressure, etc.) with respect to model parameters are constructed based on the generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansion using simulation results on sampling points (e.g., individual parameter sets). To alleviate the computational cost to evaluate the target properties, we employ the compressive sensing method to compute the coefficients of the dominant gPC terms given the prior knowledge that the coefficients are "sparse". The proposed method shows comparable accuracy with the standard probabilistic collocation method (PCM) while it imposes a much weaker restriction on the number of the simulation samples especially for systems with high dimensional parametric space. Fully access to the response surfaces within the confidence range enables us to infer the optimal force parameters given the desirable values of target properties at the macroscopic scale. Moreover, it enables us to investigate the intrinsic relationship between the model parameters, identify possible degeneracies in the parameter space, and optimize the model by eliminating model redundancies. The proposed method provides an efficient alternative approach for constructing mesoscopic models by inferring model parameters to recover target properties of the physics systems (e.g., from experimental measurements), where those force field parameters and formulation cannot be derived from the microscopic level in a straight forward way.

  13. Numerical analysis of Hall effect on the performance of magnetohydrodynamic heat shield system based on nonequilibrium Hall parameter model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Kai; Liu, Jun; Liu, Weiqiang

    2017-01-01

    Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) heat shield system, a novel thermal protection technique in the hypersonic field, has been paid much attention in recent years. In the real flight condition, not only the Lorentz force but also the Hall electric field is induced by the interaction between ionized air post shock and magnetic field. In order to analyze the action mechanisms of the Hall effect, numerical methods of coupling thermochemical nonequilibrium flow field with externally applied magnetic field as well as the induced electric field are constructed and validated. Based on the nonequilibrium model of Hall parameter, numerical simulations of the MHD heat shield system is conducted under two different magnetic induction strengths (B0=0.2 T, 0.5 T) on a reentry capsule forebody. Results show that, the Hall effect is the same under the two magnetic induction strengths when the wall is assumed to be conductive. For this case, with the Hall effect taken into account, the Lorentz force counter stream diminishes a lot and the circumferential component dominates, resulting that the heat flux and shock-off distance approach the case without MHD control. However, for the insulating wall, the Hall effect acts in different ways under these two magnetic induction strengths. For this case, with the Hall effect taken into account, the performance of MHD heat shield system approaches the case neglecting the Hall effect when B0 equals 0.2 T. Such performance becomes worse when B0 equals 0.5 T and the aerothermal environment on the capsule shoulder is even worse than the case without MHD control.

  14. Fusion strategies for selecting multiple tuning parameters for multivariate calibration and other penalty based processes: A model updating application for pharmaceutical analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tencate, Alister J; Kalivas, John H; White, Alexander J

    2016-05-19

    New multivariate calibration methods and other processes are being developed that require selection of multiple tuning parameter (penalty) values to form the final model. With one or more tuning parameters, using only one measure of model quality to select final tuning parameter values is not sufficient. Optimization of several model quality measures is challenging. Thus, three fusion ranking methods are investigated for simultaneous assessment of multiple measures of model quality for selecting tuning parameter values. One is a supervised learning fusion rule named sum of ranking differences (SRD). The other two are non-supervised learning processes based on the sum and median operations. The effect of the number of models evaluated on the three fusion rules are also evaluated using three procedures. One procedure uses all models from all possible combinations of the tuning parameters. To reduce the number of models evaluated, an iterative process (only applicable to SRD) is applied and thresholding a model quality measure before applying the fusion rules is also used. A near infrared pharmaceutical data set requiring model updating is used to evaluate the three fusion rules. In this case, calibration of the primary conditions is for the active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) of tablets produced in a laboratory. The secondary conditions for calibration updating is for tablets produced in the full batch setting. Two model updating processes requiring selection of two unique tuning parameter values are studied. One is based on Tikhonov regularization (TR) and the other is a variation of partial least squares (PLS). The three fusion methods are shown to provide equivalent and acceptable results allowing automatic selection of the tuning parameter values. Best tuning parameter values are selected when model quality measures used with the fusion rules are for the small secondary sample set used to form the updated models. In this model updating situation, evaluation of

  15. Parameter Optimisation for the Behaviour of Elastic Models over Time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mosegaard, Jesper

    2004-01-01

    Optimisation of parameters for elastic models is essential for comparison or finding equivalent behaviour of elastic models when parameters cannot simply be transferred or converted. This is the case with a large range of commonly used elastic models. In this paper we present a general method...... that will optimise parameters based on the behaviour of the elastic models over time....

  16. Small signal model parameters analysis of GaN and GaAs based HEMTs over temperature for microwave applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alim, Mohammad A.; Rezazadeh, Ali A.; Gaquiere, Christophe

    2016-05-01

    Thermal and small-signal model parameters analysis have been carried out on 0.5 μm × (2 × 100 μm) AlGaAs/GaAs HEMT grown on semi-insulating GaAs substrate and 0.25 μm × (2 × 100 μm) AlGaN/GaN HEMT grown on SiC substrate. Two different technologies are investigated in order to establish a detailed understanding of their capabilities in terms of frequency and temperature using on-wafer S-parameter measurement over the temperature range from -40 to 150 °C up to 50 GHz. The equivalent circuit parameters as well as their temperature-dependent behavior of the two technologies were analyzed and discussed for the first time. The principle elevation or degradation of transistor parameters with temperature demonstrates the great potential of GaN device for high frequency and high temperature applications. The result provides some valuable insights for future design optimizations of advanced GaN and a comparison of this with the GaAs technology.

  17. A study of M Mira variables based on IRAS LRS observations. II. Model fits and derived parameters for 109 Miras

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Onaka, T.; Jong, T. de; Willems, F.J. (Amsterdam Univ. (NL))

    1989-12-01

    We have fitted dust shell models to the IRAS LRS spectra of 109 M Mira variables. The main assumptions in the model calculations are: (i) the dust shell is spherical and optically thin, (ii) the dust grains consist of aluminum oxide and amorphous magnesium silicate, (iii) the mass loss rate is constant, (iv) the stellar photosphere is characterized by R = 3 x 10{sup 13} cm and T = 2500 K. Best fit models are calculated for each star. A model is completely determined by five parameters: the dust temperatures at the inner boundaries of the aluminum oxide and silicate dust shells, the column densities of each dust grain component, and the distance to the star. It turns out that the 1 - 200 {mu}m infrared energy distributions calculated for the best fit parameters also provide quite satisfactory fits to the observed near- and far-infrared broad-band data for most sources. The material presented here forms the basis for a study of dust condensation in the circumstellar shells around Mira variables.

  18. Estimation of Model Parameters for Steerable Needles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Wooram; Reed, Kyle B.; Okamura, Allison M.; Chirikjian, Gregory S.

    2010-01-01

    Flexible needles with bevel tips are being developed as useful tools for minimally invasive surgery and percutaneous therapy. When such a needle is inserted into soft tissue, it bends due to the asymmetric geometry of the bevel tip. This insertion with bending is not completely repeatable. We characterize the deviations in needle tip pose (position and orientation) by performing repeated needle insertions into artificial tissue. The base of the needle is pushed at a constant speed without rotating, and the covariance of the distribution of the needle tip pose is computed from experimental data. We develop the closed-form equations to describe how the covariance varies with different model parameters. We estimate the model parameters by matching the closed-form covariance and the experimentally obtained covariance. In this work, we use a needle model modified from a previously developed model with two noise parameters. The modified needle model uses three noise parameters to better capture the stochastic behavior of the needle insertion. The modified needle model provides an improvement of the covariance error from 26.1% to 6.55%. PMID:21643451

  19. Estimation of Model Parameters for Steerable Needles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Wooram; Reed, Kyle B; Okamura, Allison M; Chirikjian, Gregory S

    2010-01-01

    Flexible needles with bevel tips are being developed as useful tools for minimally invasive surgery and percutaneous therapy. When such a needle is inserted into soft tissue, it bends due to the asymmetric geometry of the bevel tip. This insertion with bending is not completely repeatable. We characterize the deviations in needle tip pose (position and orientation) by performing repeated needle insertions into artificial tissue. The base of the needle is pushed at a constant speed without rotating, and the covariance of the distribution of the needle tip pose is computed from experimental data. We develop the closed-form equations to describe how the covariance varies with different model parameters. We estimate the model parameters by matching the closed-form covariance and the experimentally obtained covariance. In this work, we use a needle model modified from a previously developed model with two noise parameters. The modified needle model uses three noise parameters to better capture the stochastic behavior of the needle insertion. The modified needle model provides an improvement of the covariance error from 26.1% to 6.55%.

  20. A Comprehensive Methodology for Development, Parameter Estimation, and Uncertainty Analysis of Group Contribution Based Property Models -An Application to the Heat of Combustion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frutiger, Jerome; Marcarie, Camille; Abildskov, Jens

    2016-01-01

    A rigorous methodology is developed that addresses numerical and statistical issues when developing group contribution (GC) based property models such as regression methods, optimization algorithms, performance statistics, outlier treatment, parameter identifiability, and uncertainty...... to calculate parameter estimation errors when underlying distribution of residuals is unknown. Many parameters (first,second, third order group contributions) are found unidentifiable from the typically available data, with large estimation error bounds and significant correlation. Due to this poor parameter...... identifiability issues, reporting of the 95% confidence intervals of the predicted property values should be mandatory as opposed to reporting only single value prediction, currently the norm in literature. Moreover, inclusion of higher order groups (additional parameters) does not always lead to improved...

  1. Parameter estimation of a physically-based land surface hydrologic model using an ensemble Kalman filter: A multivariate real-data experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Yuning; Davis, Kenneth J.; Zhang, Fuqing; Duffy, Christopher J.; Yu, Xuan

    2015-09-01

    The capability of an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to simultaneously estimate multiple parameters in a physically-based land surface hydrologic model using multivariate field observations is tested at a small watershed (0.08 km2). Multivariate, high temporal resolution, in situ measurements of discharge, water table depth, soil moisture, and sensible and latent heat fluxes encompassing five months of 2009 are assimilated. It is found that, for five out of the six parameters, the EnKF estimated parameter values from different test cases converge strongly, and the estimates after convergence are close to the manually calibrated parameter values. The EnKF estimated parameters and manually calibrated parameters yield similar model performance, but the EnKF sequential method significantly decreases the time and labor required for calibration. The results demonstrate that, given a limited number of multi-state, site-specific observations, an automated sequential calibration method (EnKF) can be used to optimize physically-based land surface hydrologic models.

  2. Establishment of a Site-Specific Tropospheric Model Based on Ground Meteorological Parameters over the China Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Chongchong; Peng, Bibo; Li, Wei; Zhong, Shiming; Ou, Jikun; Chen, Runjing; Zhao, Xinglong

    2017-07-27

    China is a country of vast territory with complicated geographical environment and climate conditions. With the rapid progress of the Chinese BeiDou satellite navigation system (BDS); more accurate tropospheric models must be applied to improve the accuracy of navigation and positioning. Based on the formula of the Saastamoinen and Callahan models; this study develops two single-site tropospheric models (named SAAS_S and CH_S models) for the Chinese region using radiosonde data from 2005 to 2012. We assess the two single-site tropospheric models with radiosonde data for 2013 and zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) data from four International GNSS Service (IGS) stations and compare them to the results of the Saastamoinen and Callahan models. The experimental results show that: the mean accuracy of the SAAS_S model (bias: 0.19 cm; RMS: 3.19 cm) at all radiosonde stations is superior to those of the Saastamoinen (bias: 0.62 cm; RMS: 3.62 cm) and CH_S (bias: -0.05 cm; RMS: 3.38 cm) models. In most Chinese regions; the RMS values of the SAAS_S and CH_S models are about 0.51~2.12 cm smaller than those of their corresponding source models. The SAAS_S model exhibits a clear improvement in the accuracy over the Saastamoinen model in low latitude regions. When the SAAS_S model is replaced by the SAAS model in the positioning of GNSS; the mean accuracy of vertical direction in the China region can be improved by 1.12~1.55 cm and the accuracy of vertical direction in low latitude areas can be improved by 1.33~7.63 cm. The residuals of the SAAS_S model are closer to a normal distribution compared to those of the Saastamoinen model. Single-site tropospheric models based on the short period of the most recent data (for example 2 years) can also achieve a satisfactory accuracy. The average performance of the SAAS_S model (bias: 0.83 cm; RMS: 3.24 cm) at four IGS stations is superior to that of the Saastamoinen (bias: -0.86 cm; RMS: 3.59 cm) and CH_S (bias: 0.45 cm; RMS: 3.38 cm

  3. Material stiffness parameters as potential predictors of presence of left ventricle myocardial infarction: 3D echo-based computational modeling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Longling; Yao, Jing; Yang, Chun; Wu, Zheyang; Xu, Di; Tang, Dalin

    2016-04-05

    Ventricle material properties are difficult to obtain under in vivo conditions and are not readily available in the current literature. It is also desirable to have an initial determination if a patient had an infarction based on echo data before more expensive examinations are recommended. A noninvasive echo-based modeling approach and a predictive method were introduced to determine left ventricle material parameters and differentiate patients with recent myocardial infarction (MI) from those without. Echo data were obtained from 10 patients, 5 with MI (Infarct Group) and 5 without (Non-Infarcted Group). Echo-based patient-specific computational left ventricle (LV) models were constructed to quantify LV material properties. All patients were treated equally in the modeling process without using MI information. Systolic and diastolic material parameter values in the Mooney-Rivlin models were adjusted to match echo volume data. The equivalent Young's modulus (YM) values were obtained for each material stress-strain curve by linear fitting for easy comparison. Predictive logistic regression analysis was used to identify the best parameters for infract prediction. The LV end-systole material stiffness (ES-YMf) was the best single predictor among the 12 individual parameters with an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.9841. LV wall thickness (WT), material stiffness in fiber direction at end-systole (ES-YMf) and material stiffness variation (∆YMf) had positive correlations with LV ejection fraction with correlation coefficients r = 0.8125, 0.9495 and 0.9619, respectively. The best combination of parameters WT + ∆YMf was the best over-all predictor with an area under the ROC curve of 0.9951. Computational modeling and material stiffness parameters may be used as a potential tool to suggest if a patient had infarction based on echo data. Large-scale clinical studies are needed to validate these preliminary findings.

  4. Fokker-Planck and Fortet equation-based parameter estimation for a leaky integrate-and-fire model with sinusoidal and stochastic forcing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iolov, Alexandre; Ditlevsen, Susanne; Longtin, Andrë

    2014-01-01

    Analysis of sinusoidal noisy leaky integrate-and-fire models and comparison with experimental data are important to understand the neural code and neural synchronization and rhythms. In this paper, we propose two methods to estimate input parameters using interspike interval data only. One is based...

  5. Using Artificial Intelligence to Retrieve the Optimal Parameters and Structures of Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System for Typhoon Precipitation Forecast Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chien-Lin Huang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to construct a typhoon precipitation forecast model providing forecasts one to six hours in advance using optimal model parameters and structures retrieved from a combination of the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS and artificial intelligence. To enhance the accuracy of the precipitation forecast, two structures were then used to establish the precipitation forecast model for a specific lead-time: a single-model structure and a dual-model hybrid structure where the forecast models of higher and lower precipitation were integrated. In order to rapidly, automatically, and accurately retrieve the optimal parameters and structures of the ANFIS-based precipitation forecast model, a tabu search was applied to identify the adjacent radius in subtractive clustering when constructing the ANFIS structure. The coupled structure was also employed to establish a precipitation forecast model across short and long lead-times in order to improve the accuracy of long-term precipitation forecasts. The study area is the Shimen Reservoir, and the analyzed period is from 2001 to 2009. Results showed that the optimal initial ANFIS parameters selected by the tabu search, combined with the dual-model hybrid method and the coupled structure, provided the favors in computation efficiency and high-reliability predictions in typhoon precipitation forecasts regarding short to long lead-time forecasting horizons.

  6. Ensemble filter based estimation of spatially distributed parameters in a mesoscale dust model: experiments with simulated and real data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. M. Khade

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF is used to estimate the erodibility fraction parameter field in a coupled meteorology and dust aerosol model (Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS over the Sahara desert. Erodibility is often employed as the key parameter to map dust source. It is used along with surface winds (or surface wind stress to calculate dust emissions. Using the Saharan desert as a test bed, a perfect model Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs with 40 ensemble members, and observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD, the EAKF is shown to recover correct values of erodibility at about 80% of the points in the domain. It is found that dust advected from upstream grid points acts as noise and complicates erodibility estimation. It is also found that the rate of convergence is significantly impacted by the structure of the initial distribution of erodibility estimates; isotropic initial distributions exhibit slow convergence, while initial distributions with geographically localized structure converge more quickly. Experiments using observations of Deep Blue AOD retrievals from the MODIS satellite sensor result in erodibility estimates that are considerably lower than the values used operationally. Verification shows that the use of the tuned erodibility field results in better predictions of AOD over the west Sahara and the Arabian Peninsula.

  7. Experimental parameters differentially affect the humoral response of the cholera-toxin-based murine model of food allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kroghsbo, S.; Christensen, Hanne Risager; Frøkiær, Hanne

    2003-01-01

    Background: Recent studies have developed a murine model of IgE-mediated food allergy based on oral coadministration of antigen and cholera toxin (CT) to establish a maximal response for studying immunopathogenic mechanisms and immunotherapeutic strategies. However, for studying subtle immunomodu......Background: Recent studies have developed a murine model of IgE-mediated food allergy based on oral coadministration of antigen and cholera toxin (CT) to establish a maximal response for studying immunopathogenic mechanisms and immunotherapeutic strategies. However, for studying subtle...

  8. A Comprehensive Methodology for Development, ParameterEstimation, and Uncertainty Analysis of Group Contribution Based Property Models -An Application to the Heat of Combustion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frutiger, Jerome; Marcarie, Camille; Abildskov, Jens;

    2016-01-01

    of the prediction. The methodology is evaluated through development of a GC method for the prediction of the heat of combustion (ΔHco) for pure components. The results showed that robust regression lead to best performance statistics for parameter estimation. The bootstrap method is found to be a valid alternative......A rigorous methodology is developed that addresses numerical and statistical issues when developing group contribution (GC) based property models such as regression methods, optimization algorithms, performance statistics, outlier treatment, parameter identifiability, and uncertainty...... prediction accuracy for the GC-models; in some cases, it may even increase the prediction error (hence worse prediction accuracy). However, additional parameters do not affect calculated 95% confidence interval. Last but not least, the newly developed GC model of the heat of combustion (ΔHco) shows...

  9. Capacity Calculation of Shunt Active Power Filters for Electric Vehicle Charging Stations Based on Harmonic Parameter Estimation and Analytical Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niancheng Zhou

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The influence of electric vehicle charging stations on power grid harmonics is becoming increasingly significant as their presence continues to grow. This paper studies the operational principles of the charging current in the continuous and discontinuous modes for a three-phase uncontrolled rectification charger with a passive power factor correction link, which is affected by the charging power. A parameter estimation method is proposed for the equivalent circuit of the charger by using the measured characteristic AC (Alternating Current voltage and current data combined with the charging circuit constraints in the conduction process, and this method is verified using an experimental platform. The sensitivity of the current harmonics to the changes in the parameters is analyzed. An analytical harmonic model of the charging station is created by separating the chargers into groups by type. Then, the harmonic current amplification caused by the shunt active power filter is researched, and the analytical formula for the overload factor is derived to further correct the capacity of the shunt active power filter. Finally, this method is validated through a field test of a charging station.

  10. PARAMETER ESTIMATION OF ENGINEERING TURBULENCE MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    钱炜祺; 蔡金狮

    2001-01-01

    A parameter estimation algorithm is introduced and used to determine the parameters in the standard k-ε two equation turbulence model (SKE). It can be found from the estimation results that although the parameter estimation method is an effective method to determine model parameters, it is difficult to obtain a set of parameters for SKE to suit all kinds of separated flow and a modification of the turbulence model structure should be considered. So, a new nonlinear k-ε two-equation model (NNKE) is put forward in this paper and the corresponding parameter estimation technique is applied to determine the model parameters. By implementing the NNKE to solve some engineering turbulent flows, it is shown that NNKE is more accurate and versatile than SKE. Thus, the success of NNKE implies that the parameter estimation technique may have a bright prospect in engineering turbulence model research.

  11. Inferring Land Surface Model Parameters for the Assimilation of Satellite-Based L-Band Brightness Temperature Observations into a Soil Moisture Analysis System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichle, Rolf H.; De Lannoy, Gabrielle J. M.

    2012-01-01

    The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite mission provides global measurements of L-band brightness temperatures at horizontal and vertical polarization and a variety of incidence angles that are sensitive to moisture and temperature conditions in the top few centimeters of the soil. These L-band observations can therefore be assimilated into a land surface model to obtain surface and root zone soil moisture estimates. As part of the observation operator, such an assimilation system requires a radiative transfer model (RTM) that converts geophysical fields (including soil moisture and soil temperature) into modeled L-band brightness temperatures. At the global scale, the RTM parameters and the climatological soil moisture conditions are still poorly known. Using look-up tables from the literature to estimate the RTM parameters usually results in modeled L-band brightness temperatures that are strongly biased against the SMOS observations, with biases varying regionally and seasonally. Such biases must be addressed within the land data assimilation system. In this presentation, the estimation of the RTM parameters is discussed for the NASA GEOS-5 land data assimilation system, which is based on the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the Catchment land surface model. In the GEOS-5 land data assimilation system, soil moisture and brightness temperature biases are addressed in three stages. First, the global soil properties and soil hydraulic parameters that are used in the Catchment model were revised to minimize the bias in the modeled soil moisture, as verified against available in situ soil moisture measurements. Second, key parameters of the "tau-omega" RTM were calibrated prior to data assimilation using an objective function that minimizes the climatological differences between the modeled L-band brightness temperatures and the corresponding SMOS observations. Calibrated parameters include soil roughness parameters, vegetation structure parameters

  12. Systematic parameter inference in stochastic mesoscopic modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Lei, Huan; Li, Zhen; Karniadakis, George

    2016-01-01

    We propose a method to efficiently determine the optimal coarse-grained force field in mesoscopic stochastic simulations of Newtonian fluid and polymer melt systems modeled by dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) and energy conserving dissipative particle dynamics (eDPD). The response surfaces of various target properties (viscosity, diffusivity, pressure, etc.) with respect to model parameters are constructed based on the generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansion using simulation results on sampling points (e.g., individual parameter sets). To alleviate the computational cost to evaluate the target properties, we employ the compressive sensing method to compute the coefficients of the dominant gPC terms given the prior knowledge that the coefficients are sparse. The proposed method shows comparable accuracy with the standard probabilistic collocation method (PCM) while it imposes a much weaker restriction on the number of the simulation samples especially for systems with high dimensional parametric space....

  13. Physically-based slope stability modelling and parameter sensitivity: a case study in the Quitite and Papagaio catchments, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Lima Neves Seefelder, Carolina; Mergili, Martin

    2016-04-01

    We use the software tools r.slope.stability and TRIGRS to produce factor of safety and slope failure susceptibility maps for the Quitite and Papagaio catchments, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The key objective of the work consists in exploring the sensitivity of the geotechnical (r.slope.stability) and geohydraulic (TRIGRS) parameterization on the model outcomes in order to define suitable parameterization strategies for future slope stability modelling. The two landslide-prone catchments Quitite and Papagaio together cover an area of 4.4 km², extending between 12 and 995 m a.s.l. The study area is dominated by granitic bedrock and soil depths of 1-3 m. Ranges of geotechnical and geohydraulic parameters are derived from literature values. A landslide inventory related to a rainfall event in 1996 (250 mm in 48 hours) is used for model evaluation. We attempt to identify those combinations of effective cohesion and effective internal friction angle yielding the best correspondence with the observed landslide release areas in terms of the area under the ROC Curve (AUCROC), and in terms of the fraction of the area affected by the release of landslides. Thereby we test multiple parameter combinations within defined ranges to derive the slope failure susceptibility (fraction of tested parameter combinations yielding a factor of safety smaller than 1). We use the tool r.slope.stability (comparing the infinite slope stability model and an ellipsoid-based sliding surface model) to test and to optimize the geotechnical parameters, and TRIGRS (a coupled hydraulic-infinite slope stability model) to explore the sensitivity of the model results to the geohydraulic parameters. The model performance in terms of AUCROC is insensitive to the variation of the geotechnical parameterization within much of the tested ranges. Assuming fully saturated soils, r.slope.stability produces rather conservative predictions, whereby the results yielded with the sliding surface model are more

  14. Water quality model parameter identification of an open channel in a long distance water transfer project based on finite difference, difference evolution and Monte Carlo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Dongguo; Yang, Haidong; Xiao, Yi; Liu, Biyu

    2014-01-01

    A new method is proposed based on the finite difference method (FDM), differential evolution algorithm and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation to identify water quality model parameters of an open channel in a long distance water transfer project. Firstly, this parameter identification problem is considered as a Bayesian estimation problem and the forward numerical model is solved by FDM, and the posterior probability density function of the parameters is deduced. Then these parameters are estimated using a sampling method with differential evolution algorithm and MCMC simulation. Finally this proposed method is compared with FDM-MCMC by a twin experiment. The results show that the proposed method can be used to identify water quality model parameters of an open channel in a long distance water transfer project under different scenarios better with fewer iterations, higher reliability and anti-noise capability compared with FDM-MCMC. Therefore, it provides a new idea and method to solve the traceability problem in sudden water pollution accidents.

  15. Roll System and Stock's Multi-parameter Coupling Dynamic Modeling Based on the Shape Control of Steel Strip

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yang; Peng, Yan; Sun, Jianliang; Zang, Yong

    2017-05-01

    The existence of rolling deformation area in the rolling mill system is the main characteristic which distinguishes the other machinery. In order to analyze the dynamic property of roll system's flexural deformation, it is necessary to consider the transverse periodic movement of stock in the rolling deformation area which is caused by the flexural deformation movement of roll system simultaneously. Therefore, the displacement field of roll system and flow of metal in the deformation area is described by kinematic analysis in the dynamic system. Through introducing the lateral displacement function of metal in the deformation area, the dynamic variation of per unit width rolling force can be determined at the same time. Then the coupling law caused by the co-effect of rigid movement and flexural deformation of the system structural elements is determined. Furthermore, a multi-parameter coupling dynamic model of the roll system and stock is established by the principle of virtual work. More explicitly, the coupled motion modal analysis was made for the roll system. Meanwhile, the analytical solutions for the flexural deformation movement's mode shape functions of rolls are discussed. In addition, the dynamic characteristic of the lateral flow of metal in the rolling deformation area has been analyzed at the same time. The establishment of dynamic lateral displacement function of metal in the deformation area makes the foundation for analyzing the coupling law between roll system and rolling deformation area, and provides a theoretical basis for the realization of the dynamic shape control of steel strip.

  16. Roll System and Stock's Multi-parameter Coupling Dynamic Modeling Based on the Shape Control of Steel Strip

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yang; Peng, Yan; Sun, Jianliang; Zang, Yong

    2017-03-01

    The existence of rolling deformation area in the rolling mill system is the main characteristic which distinguishes the other machinery. In order to analyze the dynamic property of roll system's flexural deformation, it is necessary to consider the transverse periodic movement of stock in the rolling deformation area which is caused by the flexural deformation movement of roll system simultaneously. Therefore, the displacement field of roll system and flow of metal in the deformation area is described by kinematic analysis in the dynamic system. Through introducing the lateral displacement function of metal in the deformation area, the dynamic variation of per unit width rolling force can be determined at the same time. Then the coupling law caused by the co-effect of rigid movement and flexural deformation of the system structural elements is determined. Furthermore, a multi-parameter coupling dynamic model of the roll system and stock is established by the principle of virtual work. More explicitly, the coupled motion modal analysis was made for the roll system. Meanwhile, the analytical solutions for the flexural deformation movement's mode shape functions of rolls are discussed. In addition, the dynamic characteristic of the lateral flow of metal in the rolling deformation area has been analyzed at the same time. The establishment of dynamic lateral displacement function of metal in the deformation area makes the foundation for analyzing the coupling law between roll system and rolling deformation area, and provides a theoretical basis for the realization of the dynamic shape control of steel strip.

  17. Neural network modelling of antifungal activity of a series of oxazole derivatives based on in silico pharmacokinetic parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kovačević Strahinja Z.

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In the present paper, the antifungal activity of a series of benzoxazole and oxazolo[ 4,5-b]pyridine derivatives was evaluated against Candida albicans by using quantitative structure-activity relationships chemometric methodology with artificial neural network (ANN regression approach. In vitro antifungal activity of the tested compounds was presented by minimum inhibitory concentration expressed as log(1/cMIC. In silico pharmacokinetic parameters related to absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion (ADME were calculated for all studied compounds by using PreADMET software. A feedforward back-propagation ANN with gradient descent learning algorithm was applied for modelling of the relationship between ADME descriptors (blood-brain barrier penetration, plasma protein binding, Madin-Darby cell permeability and Caco-2 cell permeability and experimental log(1/cMIC values. A 4-6-1 ANN was developed with the optimum momentum and learning rates of 0.3 and 0.05, respectively. An excellent correlation between experimental antifungal activity and values predicted by the ANN was obtained with a correlation coefficient of 0.9536. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 172012 i br. 172014

  18. Regionalization of subsurface stormflow parameters of hydrologic models: Up-scaling from physically based numerical simulations at hillslope scale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ali, Melkamu; Ye, Sheng; Li, Hongyi; Huang, Maoyi; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Fiori, Aldo; Sivapalan, Murugesu

    2014-07-19

    Subsurface stormflow is an important component of the rainfall-runoff response, especially in steep forested regions. However; its contribution is poorly represented in current generation of land surface hydrological models (LSMs) and catchment-scale rainfall-runoff models. The lack of physical basis of common parameterizations precludes a priori estimation (i.e. without calibration), which is a major drawback for prediction in ungauged basins, or for use in global models. This paper is aimed at deriving physically based parameterizations of the storage-discharge relationship relating to subsurface flow. These parameterizations are derived through a two-step up-scaling procedure: firstly, through simulations with a physically based (Darcian) subsurface flow model for idealized three dimensional rectangular hillslopes, accounting for within-hillslope random heterogeneity of soil hydraulic properties, and secondly, through subsequent up-scaling to the catchment scale by accounting for between-hillslope and within-catchment heterogeneity of topographic features (e.g., slope). These theoretical simulation results produced parameterizations of the storage-discharge relationship in terms of soil hydraulic properties, topographic slope and their heterogeneities, which were consistent with results of previous studies. Yet, regionalization of the resulting storage-discharge relations across 50 actual catchments in eastern United States, and a comparison of the regionalized results with equivalent empirical results obtained on the basis of analysis of observed streamflow recession curves, revealed a systematic inconsistency. It was found that the difference between the theoretical and empirically derived results could be explained, to first order, by climate in the form of climatic aridity index. This suggests a possible codependence of climate, soils, vegetation and topographic properties, and suggests that subsurface flow parameterization needed for ungauged locations must

  19. Parameter Estimation and Experimental Design in Groundwater Modeling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Ne-zheng

    2004-01-01

    This paper reviews the latest developments on parameter estimation and experimental design in the field of groundwater modeling. Special considerations are given when the structure of the identified parameter is complex and unknown. A new methodology for constructing useful groundwater models is described, which is based on the quantitative relationships among the complexity of model structure, the identifiability of parameter, the sufficiency of data, and the reliability of model application.

  20. Image-based petrophysical parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Noe-Nygaard, Jakob; Engstrøm, Finn; Sølling, Theis Ivan

    2017-01-01

    In the present study, the focus is on two 2- to 3-mm cuttings-scale reservoir chalk samples chosen such that the resolution of the pore space is challenging the state of the art and the permeability differs by a factor of four. We compare the petrophysical parameters that are derived from nano......-computed-tomography (nano-CT) images of trim sections and cuttings. Moreover, the trim-section results are upscaled to trim size to form the basis of an additional comparison. The results are also benchmarked against conventional core analysis (CCAL) results on trim-size samples. The comparison shows that petrophysical......, the differences are significant for the low-permeability plug. For the two-phase-flow data, the predicted relative permeability endpoints differ significantly. The root cause of this again is attributed to the more-complex structure of the pore network in the low-permeability carbonate. The experiment was also...

  1. Inversion analysis of estimating interannual variability and its uncertainties in biotic and abiotic parameters of a parsimonious physiologically based model after wind disturbance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toda, M.; Yokozawa, M.; Richardson, A. D.; Kohyama, T.

    2011-12-01

    The effects of wind disturbance on interannual variability in ecosystem CO2 exchange have been assessed in two forests in northern Japan, i.e., a young, even-aged, monocultured, deciduous forest and an uneven-aged mixed forest of evergreen and deciduous trees, including some over 200 years old using eddy covariance (EC) measurements during 2004-2008. The EC measurements have indicated that photosynthetic recovery of trees after a huge typhoon occurred during early September in 2004 activated annual carbon uptake of both forests due to changes in physiological response of tree leaves during their growth stages. However, little have been resolved about what biotic and abiotic factors regulated interannual variability in heat, water and carbon exchange between an atmosphere and forests. In recent years, an inverse modeling analysis has been utilized as a powerful tool to estimate biotic and abiotic parameters that might affect heat, water and CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and forest of a parsimonious physiologically based model. We conducted the Bayesian inverse model analysis for the model with the EC measurements. The preliminary result showed that the above model-derived NEE values were consistent with observed ones on the hourly basis with optimized parameters by Baysian inversion. In the presentation, we would examine interannual variability in biotic and abiotic parameters related to heat, water and carbon exchange between the atmosphere and forests after disturbance by typhoon.

  2. Sensitivity of a Shallow-Water Model to Parameters

    CERN Document Server

    Kazantsev, Eugene

    2011-01-01

    An adjoint based technique is applied to a shallow water model in order to estimate the influence of the model's parameters on the solution. Among parameters the bottom topography, initial conditions, boundary conditions on rigid boundaries, viscosity coefficients Coriolis parameter and the amplitude of the wind stress tension are considered. Their influence is analyzed from three points of view: 1. flexibility of the model with respect to a parameter that is related to the lowest value of the cost function that can be obtained in the data assimilation experiment that controls this parameter; 2. possibility to improve the model by the parameter's control, i.e. whether the solution with the optimal parameter remains close to observations after the end of control; 3. sensitivity of the model solution to the parameter in a classical sense. That implies the analysis of the sensitivity estimates and their comparison with each other and with the local Lyapunov exponents that characterize the sensitivity of the mode...

  3. Modeling of Parameters of Subcritical Assembly SAD

    CERN Document Server

    Petrochenkov, S; Puzynin, I

    2005-01-01

    The accepted conceptual design of the experimental Subcritical Assembly in Dubna (SAD) is based on the MOX core with a nominal unit capacity of 25 kW (thermal). This corresponds to the multiplication coefficient $k_{\\rm eff} =0.95$ and accelerator beam power 1 kW. A subcritical assembly driven with the existing 660 MeV proton accelerator at the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research has been modelled in order to make choice of the optimal parameters for the future experiments. The Monte Carlo method was used to simulate neutron spectra, energy deposition and doses calculations. Some of the calculation results are presented in the paper.

  4. Predication of Crane Condition Parameters Based on SVM and AR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiuzhong, Xu; Xiong, Hu; Congxiao, Zhou

    2011-07-01

    Through statistic analysis of vibration signals of motor on the container crane hoisting mechanism in a port, the feature vectors with vibration are obtained. Through data preprocessing and training data, Training models of condition parameters based on support vector machine (SVM) are established. The testing data of condition monitoring parameters can be predicted by the training models. During training the models, the penalty parameter and kernel function of model are optimized by cross validation. In order to analysis the accurate of SVM model, autoregressive model is used to predict the trend of vibration. The research showed the predicted results of model using SVM are better than the results by autoregressive (AR) modeling.

  5. Fokker-Planck and Fortet equation-based parameter estimation for a leaky integrate-and-fire model with sinusoidal and stochastic forcing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iolov, Alexandre; Ditlevsen, Susanne; Longtin, Andrë

    2014-01-01

    Analysis of sinusoidal noisy leaky integrate-and-fire models and comparison with experimental data are important to understand the neural code and neural synchronization and rhythms. In this paper, we propose two methods to estimate input parameters using interspike interval data only. One is based...... on numerical solutions of the Fokker–Planck equation, and the other is based on an integral equation, which is fulfilled by the interspike interval probability density. This generalizes previous methods tailored to stationary data to the case of time-dependent input. The main contribution is a binning method...

  6. Parameter identification of hyperelastic material properties of the heel pad based on an analytical contact mechanics model of a spherical indentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Ryo; Ito, Kohta; Lee, Taeyong; Ogihara, Naomichi

    2017-01-01

    Accurate identification of the material properties of the plantar soft tissue is important for computer-aided analysis of foot pathologies and design of therapeutic footwear interventions based on subject-specific models of the foot. However, parameter identification of the hyperelastic material properties of plantar soft tissues usually requires an inverse finite element analysis due to the lack of a practical contact model of the indentation test. In the present study, we derive an analytical contact model of a spherical indentation test in order to directly estimate the material properties of the plantar soft tissue. Force-displacement curves of the heel pads are obtained through an indentation experiment. The experimental data are fit to the analytical stress-strain solution of the spherical indentation in order to obtain the parameters. A spherical indentation approach successfully predicted the non-linear material properties of the heel pad without iterative finite element calculation. The force-displacement curve obtained in the present study was found to be situated lower than those identified in previous studies. The proposed framework for identifying the hyperelastic material parameters may facilitate the development of subject-specific FE modeling of the foot for possible clinical and ergonomic applications.

  7. Parameter optimization in S-system models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasconcelos Ana

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The inverse problem of identifying the topology of biological networks from their time series responses is a cornerstone challenge in systems biology. We tackle this challenge here through the parameterization of S-system models. It was previously shown that parameter identification can be performed as an optimization based on the decoupling of the differential S-system equations, which results in a set of algebraic equations. Results A novel parameterization solution is proposed for the identification of S-system models from time series when no information about the network topology is known. The method is based on eigenvector optimization of a matrix formed from multiple regression equations of the linearized decoupled S-system. Furthermore, the algorithm is extended to the optimization of network topologies with constraints on metabolites and fluxes. These constraints rejoin the system in cases where it had been fragmented by decoupling. We demonstrate with synthetic time series why the algorithm can be expected to converge in most cases. Conclusion A procedure was developed that facilitates automated reverse engineering tasks for biological networks using S-systems. The proposed method of eigenvector optimization constitutes an advancement over S-system parameter identification from time series using a recent method called Alternating Regression. The proposed method overcomes convergence issues encountered in alternate regression by identifying nonlinear constraints that restrict the search space to computationally feasible solutions. Because the parameter identification is still performed for each metabolite separately, the modularity and linear time characteristics of the alternating regression method are preserved. Simulation studies illustrate how the proposed algorithm identifies the correct network topology out of a collection of models which all fit the dynamical time series essentially equally well.

  8. An expanded model of HIV cell entry phenotype based on multi-parameter single-cell data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bozek Katarzyna

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Entry of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1 into the host cell involves interactions between the viral envelope glycoproteins (Env and the cellular receptor CD4 as well as a coreceptor molecule (most importantly CCR5 or CXCR4. Viral preference for a specific coreceptor (tropism is in particular determined by the third variable loop (V3 of the Env glycoprotein gp120. The approval and use of a coreceptor antagonist for antiretroviral therapy make detailed understanding of tropism and its accurate prediction from patient derived virus isolates essential. The aim of the present study is the development of an extended description of the HIV entry phenotype reflecting its co-dependence on several key determinants as the basis for a more accurate prediction of HIV-1 entry phenotype from genotypic data. Results Here, we established a new protocol of quantitation and computational analysis of the dependence of HIV entry efficiency on receptor and coreceptor cell surface levels as well as viral V3 loop sequence and the presence of two prototypic coreceptor antagonists in varying concentrations. Based on data collected at the single-cell level, we constructed regression models of the HIV-1 entry phenotype integrating the measured determinants. We developed a multivariate phenotype descriptor, termed phenotype vector, which facilitates a more detailed characterization of HIV entry phenotypes than currently used binary tropism classifications. For some of the tested virus variants, the multivariant phenotype vector revealed substantial divergences from existing tropism predictions. We also developed methods for computational prediction of the entry phenotypes based on the V3 sequence and performed an extrapolating calculation of the effectiveness of this computational procedure. Conclusions Our study of the HIV cell entry phenotype and the novel multivariate representation developed here contributes to a more detailed

  9. PARAMETER ESTIMATION IN BREAD BAKING MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    Hadiyanto Hadiyanto; AJB van Boxtel

    2012-01-01

    Bread product quality is highly dependent to the baking process. A model for the development of product quality, which was obtained by using quantitative and qualitative relationships, was calibrated by experiments at a fixed baking temperature of 200°C alone and in combination with 100 W microwave powers. The model parameters were estimated in a stepwise procedure i.e. first, heat and mass transfer related parameters, then the parameters related to product transformations and finally pro...

  10. Parameter counting in models with global symmetries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berger, Joshua [Institute for High Energy Phenomenology, Newman Laboratory of Elementary Particle Physics, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853 (United States)], E-mail: jb454@cornell.edu; Grossman, Yuval [Institute for High Energy Phenomenology, Newman Laboratory of Elementary Particle Physics, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853 (United States)], E-mail: yuvalg@lepp.cornell.edu

    2009-05-18

    We present rules for determining the number of physical parameters in models with exact flavor symmetries. In such models the total number of parameters (physical and unphysical) needed to described a matrix is less than in a model without the symmetries. Several toy examples are studied in order to demonstrate the rules. The use of global symmetries in studying the minimally supersymmetric standard model (MSSM) is examined.

  11. Cosmological models with constant deceleration parameter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berman, M.S.; de Mello Gomide, F.

    1988-02-01

    Berman presented elsewhere a law of variation for Hubble's parameter that yields constant deceleration parameter models of the universe. By analyzing Einstein, Pryce-Hoyle and Brans-Dicke cosmologies, we derive here the necessary relations in each model, considering a perfect fluid.

  12. Central Puget Sound Ecopath/Ecosim model biological parameters - Developing food web models for ecosystem-based management applications in Puget Sound

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This project is developing food web models for ecosystem-based management applications in Puget Sound. It is primarily being done by NMFS FTEs and contractors, in...

  13. Moose models with vanishing $S$ parameter

    CERN Document Server

    Casalbuoni, R; Dominici, Daniele

    2004-01-01

    In the linear moose framework, which naturally emerges in deconstruction models, we show that there is a unique solution for the vanishing of the $S$ parameter at the lowest order in the weak interactions. We consider an effective gauge theory based on $K$ SU(2) gauge groups, $K+1$ chiral fields and electroweak groups $SU(2)_L$ and $U(1)_Y$ at the ends of the chain of the moose. $S$ vanishes when a link in the moose chain is cut. As a consequence one has to introduce a dynamical non local field connecting the two ends of the moose. Then the model acquires an additional custodial symmetry which protects this result. We examine also the possibility of a strong suppression of $S$ through an exponential behavior of the link couplings as suggested by Randall Sundrum metric.

  14. Trait Characteristics of Diffusion Model Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna-Lena Schubert

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Cognitive modeling of response time distributions has seen a huge rise in popularity in individual differences research. In particular, several studies have shown that individual differences in the drift rate parameter of the diffusion model, which reflects the speed of information uptake, are substantially related to individual differences in intelligence. However, if diffusion model parameters are to reflect trait-like properties of cognitive processes, they have to qualify as trait-like variables themselves, i.e., they have to be stable across time and consistent over different situations. To assess their trait characteristics, we conducted a latent state-trait analysis of diffusion model parameters estimated from three response time tasks that 114 participants completed at two laboratory sessions eight months apart. Drift rate, boundary separation, and non-decision time parameters showed a great temporal stability over a period of eight months. However, the coefficients of consistency and reliability were only low to moderate and highest for drift rate parameters. These results show that the consistent variance of diffusion model parameters across tasks can be regarded as temporally stable ability parameters. Moreover, they illustrate the need for using broader batteries of response time tasks in future studies on the relationship between diffusion model parameters and intelligence.

  15. Parameter identification in the logistic STAR model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ekner, Line Elvstrøm; Nejstgaard, Emil

    We propose a new and simple parametrization of the so-called speed of transition parameter of the logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) model. The new parametrization highlights that a consequence of the well-known identification problem of the speed of transition parameter is that th......We propose a new and simple parametrization of the so-called speed of transition parameter of the logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) model. The new parametrization highlights that a consequence of the well-known identification problem of the speed of transition parameter...

  16. Application of lumped-parameter models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, M.

    2006-12-15

    This technical report concerns the lumped-parameter models for a suction caisson with a ratio between skirt length and foundation diameter equal to 1/2, embedded into an viscoelastic soil. The models are presented for three different values of the shear modulus of the subsoil. Subsequently, the assembly of the dynamic stiffness matrix for the foundation is considered, and the solution for obtaining the steady state response, when using lumped-parameter models is given. (au)

  17. PARAMETER ESTIMATION IN BREAD BAKING MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hadiyanto Hadiyanto

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Bread product quality is highly dependent to the baking process. A model for the development of product quality, which was obtained by using quantitative and qualitative relationships, was calibrated by experiments at a fixed baking temperature of 200°C alone and in combination with 100 W microwave powers. The model parameters were estimated in a stepwise procedure i.e. first, heat and mass transfer related parameters, then the parameters related to product transformations and finally product quality parameters. There was a fair agreement between the calibrated model results and the experimental data. The results showed that the applied simple qualitative relationships for quality performed above expectation. Furthermore, it was confirmed that the microwave input is most meaningful for the internal product properties and not for the surface properties as crispness and color. The model with adjusted parameters was applied in a quality driven food process design procedure to derive a dynamic operation pattern, which was subsequently tested experimentally to calibrate the model. Despite the limited calibration with fixed operation settings, the model predicted well on the behavior under dynamic convective operation and on combined convective and microwave operation. It was expected that the suitability between model and baking system could be improved further by performing calibration experiments at higher temperature and various microwave power levels.  Abstrak  PERKIRAAN PARAMETER DALAM MODEL UNTUK PROSES BAKING ROTI. Kualitas produk roti sangat tergantung pada proses baking yang digunakan. Suatu model yang telah dikembangkan dengan metode kualitatif dan kuantitaif telah dikalibrasi dengan percobaan pada temperatur 200oC dan dengan kombinasi dengan mikrowave pada 100 Watt. Parameter-parameter model diestimasi dengan prosedur bertahap yaitu pertama, parameter pada model perpindahan masa dan panas, parameter pada model transformasi, dan

  18. Statefinder parameters in two dark energy models

    CERN Document Server

    Panotopoulos, Grigoris

    2007-01-01

    The statefinder parameters ($r,s$) in two dark energy models are studied. In the first, we discuss in four-dimensional General Relativity a two fluid model, in which dark energy and dark matter are allowed to interact with each other. In the second model, we consider the DGP brane model generalized by taking a possible energy exchange between the brane and the bulk into account. We determine the values of the statefinder parameters that correspond to the unique attractor of the system at hand. Furthermore, we produce plots in which we show $s,r$ as functions of red-shift, and the ($s-r$) plane for each model.

  19. Parameter Symmetry of the Interacting Boson Model

    CERN Document Server

    Shirokov, A M; Smirnov, Yu F; Shirokov, Andrey M.; Smirnov, Yu. F.

    1998-01-01

    We discuss the symmetry of the parameter space of the interacting boson model (IBM). It is shown that for any set of the IBM Hamiltonian parameters (with the only exception of the U(5) dynamical symmetry limit) one can always find another set that generates the equivalent spectrum. We discuss the origin of the symmetry and its relevance for physical applications.

  20. Least Squares Support Vector Machine Based Real-Time Fault Diagnosis Model for Gas Path Parameters of Aero Engines

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Xu-hui; HUANG Sheng-guo; WANG Ye; LIU Yong-jian; SHU Ping

    2009-01-01

    Least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) is applied in gas path fault diagnosis for aero engines.Firstly,the deviation data of engine cruise are analyzed.Then,model selection is conducted using pattern search method.Finally,by decoding aircraft communication addressing and reporting system (ACARS) report,a real-time cruise data set is acquired,and the diagnosis model is adopted to process data.In contrast to the radial basis function (RBF) neutral network,LS-SVM is more suitable for real-time diagnosis of gas turbine engine.

  1. Wind Farm Decentralized Dynamic Modeling With Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soltani, Mohsen; Shakeri, Sayyed Mojtaba; Grunnet, Jacob Deleuran;

    2010-01-01

    Development of dynamic wind flow models for wind farms is part of the research in European research FP7 project AEOLUS. The objective of this report is to provide decentralized dynamic wind flow models with parameters. The report presents a structure for decentralized flow models with inputs from...

  2. Setting Parameters for Biological Models With ANIMO

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schivo, Stefano; Scholma, Jetse; Karperien, Hermanus Bernardus Johannes; Post, Janine Nicole; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Langerak, Romanus; André, Étienne; Frehse, Goran

    2014-01-01

    ANIMO (Analysis of Networks with Interactive MOdeling) is a software for modeling biological networks, such as e.g. signaling, metabolic or gene networks. An ANIMO model is essentially the sum of a network topology and a number of interaction parameters. The topology describes the interactions

  3. Regionalization of SWAT Model Parameters for Use in Ungauged Watersheds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Indrajeet Chaubey

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available There has been a steady shift towards modeling and model-based approaches as primary methods of assessing watershed response to hydrologic inputs and land management, and of quantifying watershed-wide best management practice (BMP effectiveness. Watershed models often require some degree of calibration and validation to achieve adequate watershed and therefore BMP representation. This is, however, only possible for gauged watersheds. There are many watersheds for which there are very little or no monitoring data available, thus the question as to whether it would be possible to extend and/or generalize model parameters obtained through calibration of gauged watersheds to ungauged watersheds within the same region. This study explored the possibility of developing regionalized model parameter sets for use in ungauged watersheds. The study evaluated two regionalization methods: global averaging, and regression-based parameters, on the SWAT model using data from priority watersheds in Arkansas. Resulting parameters were tested and model performance determined on three gauged watersheds. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (NS for stream flow obtained using regression-based parameters (0.53–0.83 compared well with corresponding values obtained through model calibration (0.45–0.90. Model performance obtained using global averaged parameter values was also generally acceptable (0.4 ≤ NS ≤ 0.75. Results from this study indicate that regionalized parameter sets for the SWAT model can be obtained and used for making satisfactory hydrologic response predictions in ungauged watersheds.

  4. A Conceptually Simple Modeling Approach for Jason-1 Sea State Bias Correction Based on 3 Parameters Exclusively Derived from Altimetric Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelson Pires

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available A conceptually simple formulation is proposed for a new empirical sea state bias (SSB model using information retrieved entirely from altimetric data. Nonparametric regression techniques are used, based on penalized smoothing splines adjusted to each predictor and then combined by a Generalized Additive Model. In addition to the significant wave height (SWH and wind speed (U10, a mediator parameter designed by the mean wave period derived from radar altimetry, has proven to improve the model performance in explaining some of the SSB variability, especially in swell ocean regions with medium-high SWH and low U10. A collinear analysis of scaled sea level anomalies (SLA variance differences shows conformity between the proposed model and the established SSB models. The new formulation aims to be a fast, reliable and flexible SSB model, in line with the well-settled SSB corrections, depending exclusively on altimetric information. The suggested method is computationally efficient and capable of generating a stable model with a small training dataset, a useful feature for forthcoming missions.

  5. Understanding uncertainties when inferring mean transit times of water trough tracer-based lumped-parameter models in Andean tropical montane cloud forest catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timbe, E.; Windhorst, D.; Crespo, P.; Frede, H.-G.; Feyen, J.; Breuer, L.

    2014-04-01

    Weekly samples from surface waters, springs, soil water and rainfall were collected in a 76.9 km2 mountain rain forest catchment and its tributaries in southern Ecuador. Time series of the stable water isotopes δ18O and δ2H were used to calculate mean transit times (MTTs) and the transit time distribution functions (TTDs) solving the convolution method for seven lumped-parameter models. For each model setup, the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology was applied to find the best predictions, behavioral solutions and parameter identifiability. For the study basin, TTDs based on model types such as the linear-piston flow for soil waters and the exponential-piston flow for surface waters and springs performed better than more versatile equations such as the gamma and the two parallel linear reservoirs. Notwithstanding both approaches yielded a better goodness of fit for most sites, but with considerable larger uncertainty shown by GLUE. Among the tested models, corresponding results were obtained for soil waters with short MTTs (ranging from 2 to 9 weeks). For waters with longer MTTs differences were found, suggesting that for those cases the MTT should be based at least on an intercomparison of several models. Under dominant baseflow conditions long MTTs for stream water ≥ 2 yr were detected, a phenomenon also observed for shallow springs. Short MTTs for water in the top soil layer indicate a rapid exchange of surface waters with deeper soil horizons. Differences in travel times between soils suggest that there is evidence of a land use effect on flow generation.

  6. Transfer of the nationwide Czech soil survey data to a foreign soil classification - generating input parameters for a process-based soil erosion modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beitlerová, Hana; Hieke, Falk; Žížala, Daniel; Kapička, Jiří; Keiser, Andreas; Schmidt, Jürgen; Schindewolf, Marcus

    2017-04-01

    Process-based erosion modelling is a developing and adequate tool to assess, simulate and understand the complex mechanisms of soil loss due to surface runoff. While the current state of available models includes powerful approaches, a major drawback is given by complex parametrization. A major input parameter for the physically based soil loss and deposition model EROSION 3D is represented by soil texture. However, as the model has been developed in Germany it is dependent on the German soil classification. To exploit data generated during a massive nationwide soil survey campaign taking place in the 1960s across the entire Czech Republic, a transfer from the Czech to the German or at least international (e.g. WRB) system is mandatory. During the survey the internal differentiation of grain sizes was realized in a two fractions approach, separating texture into solely above and below 0.01 mm rather than into clayey, silty and sandy textures. Consequently, the Czech system applies a classification of seven different textures based on the respective percentage of large and small particles, while in Germany 31 groups are essential. The followed approach of matching Czech soil survey data to the German system focusses on semi-logarithmic interpolation of the cumulative soil texture curve additionally on a regression equation based on a recent database of 128 soil pits. Furthermore, for each of the seven Czech texture classes a group of typically suitable classes of the German system was derived. A GIS-based spatial analysis to test approaches of interpolation the soil texture was carried out. First results show promising matches and pave the way to a Czech model application of EROSION 3D.

  7. Spatial soil zinc content distribution from terrain parameters: A GIS-based decision-tree model in Lebanon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bou Kheir, Rania, E-mail: rania.boukheir@agrsci.d [Lebanese University, Faculty of Letters and Human Sciences, Department of Geography, GIS Research Laboratory, P.O. Box 90-1065, Fanar (Lebanon); Department of Agroecology and Environment, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences (DJF), Aarhus University, Blichers Alle 20, P.O. Box 50, DK-8830 Tjele (Denmark); Greve, Mogens H. [Department of Agroecology and Environment, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences (DJF), Aarhus University, Blichers Alle 20, P.O. Box 50, DK-8830 Tjele (Denmark); Abdallah, Chadi [National Council for Scientific Research, Remote Sensing Center, P.O. Box 11-8281, Beirut (Lebanon); Dalgaard, Tommy [Department of Agroecology and Environment, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences (DJF), Aarhus University, Blichers Alle 20, P.O. Box 50, DK-8830 Tjele (Denmark)

    2010-02-15

    Heavy metal contamination has been and continues to be a worldwide phenomenon that has attracted a great deal of attention from governments and regulatory bodies. In this context, our study proposes a regression-tree model to predict the concentration level of zinc in the soils of northern Lebanon (as a case study of Mediterranean landscapes) under a GIS environment. The developed tree-model explained 88% of variance in zinc concentration using pH (100% in relative importance), surroundings of waste areas (90%), proximity to roads (80%), nearness to cities (50%), distance to drainage line (25%), lithology (24%), land cover/use (14%), slope gradient (10%), conductivity (7%), soil type (7%), organic matter (5%), and soil depth (5%). The overall accuracy of the quantitative zinc map produced (at 1:50.000 scale) was estimated to be 78%. The proposed tree model is relatively simple and may also be applied to other areas. - GIS regression-tree analysis explained 88% of the variability in field/laboratory Zinc concentrations.

  8. 一种基于图形化建模的遥测参数配置工具%A Telemetry Parameter Configuration Tool Based on Graphic Modeling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    罗毓芳; 李强; 韩洪波

    2012-01-01

    设计了一种基于图形化建模的适用于多星遥测参数配置的软件工具,将实际存在的物理对象作为独立的模块、使用相关图元和界面建立其逻辑模型,并可将遥测参数配置信息和图形模型绑定其中.同时根据遥测参数配置模型的特点,制定适用于遥测参数配置信息的描述规范,根据此规范对逻辑模型进行描述,最终模型以XML(可扩展标记语言)文件形式存储.该工具可在不同卫星之间复用.实践应用表明,该工具可以将配置过程非专业化和可视化,减少重复工作,降低了配置过程中的出错概率,提高配置工作的效率和质量,实现多星遥测参数配置图形化显示和配置工作的批量化.%A graphic modeling tool is designed for configuration of telemetry parameters of multiple satellites. Physical objects are represented as independent modules and graphic elements and GUI (Graphic User Interface) are used to establish their logical model, and telemetry parameter configuration information and graphic models can be bound to it. Specification for description of telemetry parameter configuration information is drawn up based on the characteristics of the model and the logic model is described with the specification. The ultimate model is stored in XML (eXtensible Markup Language) file format. The tool can be reused among different satellites. Engineering applications show that the tool visualizes the configuration process and makes the process more concise. At the same time, it reduces repetitive workload, lowers risks of mistakes and increases the efficiency and quality of configuration process by batch-processing multi-satellite telemetry parameter configuration.

  9. Parameter Estimation, Model Reduction and Quantum Filtering

    CERN Document Server

    Chase, Bradley A

    2009-01-01

    This dissertation explores the topics of parameter estimation and model reduction in the context of quantum filtering. Chapters 2 and 3 provide a review of classical and quantum probability theory, stochastic calculus and filtering. Chapter 4 studies the problem of quantum parameter estimation and introduces the quantum particle filter as a practical computational method for parameter estimation via continuous measurement. Chapter 5 applies these techniques in magnetometry and studies the estimator's uncertainty scalings in a double-pass atomic magnetometer. Chapter 6 presents an efficient feedback controller for continuous-time quantum error correction. Chapter 7 presents an exact model of symmetric processes of collective qubit systems.

  10. Parameter estimation of hydrologic models using data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaheil, Y. H.

    2005-12-01

    The uncertainties associated with the modeling of hydrologic systems sometimes demand that data should be incorporated in an on-line fashion in order to understand the behavior of the system. This paper represents a Bayesian strategy to estimate parameters for hydrologic models in an iterative mode. The paper presents a modified technique called localized Bayesian recursive estimation (LoBaRE) that efficiently identifies the optimum parameter region, avoiding convergence to a single best parameter set. The LoBaRE methodology is tested for parameter estimation for two different types of models: a support vector machine (SVM) model for predicting soil moisture, and the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model for estimating streamflow. The SAC-SMA model has 13 parameters that must be determined. The SVM model has three parameters. Bayesian inference is used to estimate the best parameter set in an iterative fashion. This is done by narrowing the sampling space by imposing uncertainty bounds on the posterior best parameter set and/or updating the "parent" bounds based on their fitness. The new approach results in fast convergence towards the optimal parameter set using minimum training/calibration data and evaluation of fewer parameter sets. The efficacy of the localized methodology is also compared with the previously used Bayesian recursive estimation (BaRE) algorithm.

  11. The effect of parameters of equilibrium-based 3-D biomechanical models on extracted muscle synergies during isometric lumbar exertion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eskandari, A H; Sedaghat-Nejad, E; Rashedi, E; Sedighi, A; Arjmand, N; Parnianpour, M

    2016-04-11

    A hallmark of more advanced models is their higher details of trunk muscles represented by a larger number of muscles. The question is if in reality we control these muscles individually as independent agents or we control groups of them called "synergy". To address this, we employed a 3-D biomechanical model of the spine with 18 trunk muscles that satisfied equilibrium conditions at L4/5, with different cost functions. The solutions of several 2-D and 3-D tasks were arranged in a data matrix and the synergies were computed by using non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) algorithms. Variance accounted for (VAF) was used to evaluate the number of synergies that emerged by the analysis, which were used to reconstruct the original muscle activations. It was showed that four and six muscle synergies were adequate to reconstruct the input data of 2-D and 3-D torque space analysis. The synergies were different by choosing alternative cost functions as expected. The constraints affected the extracted muscle synergies, particularly muscles that participated in more than one functional tasks were influenced substantially. The compositions of extracted muscle synergies were in agreement with experimental studies on healthy participants. The following computational methods show that the synergies can reduce the complexity of load distributions and allow reduced dimensional space to be used in clinical settings.

  12. NWP model forecast skill optimization via closure parameter variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Järvinen, H.; Ollinaho, P.; Laine, M.; Solonen, A.; Haario, H.

    2012-04-01

    We present results of a novel approach to tune predictive skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. These models contain tunable parameters which appear in parameterizations schemes of sub-grid scale physical processes. The current practice is to specify manually the numerical parameter values, based on expert knowledge. We developed recently a concept and method (QJRMS 2011) for on-line estimation of the NWP model parameters via closure parameter variations. The method called EPPES ("Ensemble prediction and parameter estimation system") utilizes ensemble prediction infra-structure for parameter estimation in a very cost-effective way: practically no new computations are introduced. The approach provides an algorithmic decision making tool for model parameter optimization in operational NWP. In EPPES, statistical inference about the NWP model tunable parameters is made by (i) generating an ensemble of predictions so that each member uses different model parameter values, drawn from a proposal distribution, and (ii) feeding-back the relative merits of the parameter values to the proposal distribution, based on evaluation of a suitable likelihood function against verifying observations. In this presentation, the method is first illustrated in low-order numerical tests using a stochastic version of the Lorenz-95 model which effectively emulates the principal features of ensemble prediction systems. The EPPES method correctly detects the unknown and wrongly specified parameters values, and leads to an improved forecast skill. Second, results with an ensemble prediction system emulator, based on the ECHAM5 atmospheric GCM show that the model tuning capability of EPPES scales up to realistic models and ensemble prediction systems. Finally, preliminary results of EPPES in the context of ECMWF forecasting system are presented.

  13. Parameter Estimation for Thurstone Choice Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vojnovic, Milan [London School of Economics (United Kingdom); Yun, Seyoung [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-04-24

    We consider the estimation accuracy of individual strength parameters of a Thurstone choice model when each input observation consists of a choice of one item from a set of two or more items (so called top-1 lists). This model accommodates the well-known choice models such as the Luce choice model for comparison sets of two or more items and the Bradley-Terry model for pair comparisons. We provide a tight characterization of the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator. We also provide similar characterizations for parameter estimators defined by a rank-breaking method, which amounts to deducing one or more pair comparisons from a comparison of two or more items, assuming independence of these pair comparisons, and maximizing a likelihood function derived under these assumptions. We also consider a related binary classification problem where each individual parameter takes value from a set of two possible values and the goal is to correctly classify all items within a prescribed classification error. The results of this paper shed light on how the parameter estimation accuracy depends on given Thurstone choice model and the structure of comparison sets. In particular, we found that for unbiased input comparison sets of a given cardinality, when in expectation each comparison set of given cardinality occurs the same number of times, for a broad class of Thurstone choice models, the mean squared error decreases with the cardinality of comparison sets, but only marginally according to a diminishing returns relation. On the other hand, we found that there exist Thurstone choice models for which the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator can decrease much faster with the cardinality of comparison sets. We report empirical evaluation of some claims and key parameters revealed by theory using both synthetic and real-world input data from some popular sport competitions and online labor platforms.

  14. A RSM-based predictive model to characterize heat treating parameters of D2 steel using combined Barkhausen noise and hysteresis loop methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahrobaee, Saeed; Hejazi, Taha-Hossein

    2017-07-01

    Austenitizing and tempering temperatures are the effective characteristics in heat treating process of AISI D2 tool steel. Therefore, controlling them enables the heat treatment process to be designed more accurately which results in more balanced mechanical properties. The aim of this work is to develop a multiresponse predictive model that enables finding these characteristics based on nondestructive tests by a set of parameters of the magnetic Barkhausen noise technique and hysteresis loop method. To produce various microstructural changes, identical specimens from the AISI D2 steel sheet were austenitized in the range 1025-1130 °C, for 30 min, oil-quenched and finally tempered at various temperatures between 200 °C and 650 °C. A set of nondestructive data have been gathered based on general factorial design of experiments and used for training and testing the multiple response surface model. Finally, an optimization model has been proposed to achieve minimal error prediction. Results revealed that applying Barkhausen and hysteresis loop methods, simultaneously, coupling to the multiresponse model, has a potential to be used as a reliable and accurate nondestructive tool for predicting austenitizing and tempering temperatures (which, in turn, led to characterizing the microstructural changes) of the parts with unknown heat treating conditions.

  15. On linear models and parameter identifiability in experimental biological systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamberton, Timothy O; Condon, Nicholas D; Stow, Jennifer L; Hamilton, Nicholas A

    2014-10-07

    A key problem in the biological sciences is to be able to reliably estimate model parameters from experimental data. This is the well-known problem of parameter identifiability. Here, methods are developed for biologists and other modelers to design optimal experiments to ensure parameter identifiability at a structural level. The main results of the paper are to provide a general methodology for extracting parameters of linear models from an experimentally measured scalar function - the transfer function - and a framework for the identifiability analysis of complex model structures using linked models. Linked models are composed by letting the output of one model become the input to another model which is then experimentally measured. The linked model framework is shown to be applicable to designing experiments to identify the measured sub-model and recover the input from the unmeasured sub-model, even in cases that the unmeasured sub-model is not identifiable. Applications for a set of common model features are demonstrated, and the results combined in an example application to a real-world experimental system. These applications emphasize the insight into answering "where to measure" and "which experimental scheme" questions provided by both the parameter extraction methodology and the linked model framework. The aim is to demonstrate the tools' usefulness in guiding experimental design to maximize parameter information obtained, based on the model structure.

  16. Unscented Kalman filter with parameter identifiability analysis for the estimation of multiple parameters in kinetic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baker Syed

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In systems biology, experimentally measured parameters are not always available, necessitating the use of computationally based parameter estimation. In order to rely on estimated parameters, it is critical to first determine which parameters can be estimated for a given model and measurement set. This is done with parameter identifiability analysis. A kinetic model of the sucrose accumulation in the sugar cane culm tissue developed by Rohwer et al. was taken as a test case model. What differentiates this approach is the integration of an orthogonal-based local identifiability method into the unscented Kalman filter (UKF, rather than using the more common observability-based method which has inherent limitations. It also introduces a variable step size based on the system uncertainty of the UKF during the sensitivity calculation. This method identified 10 out of 12 parameters as identifiable. These ten parameters were estimated using the UKF, which was run 97 times. Throughout the repetitions the UKF proved to be more consistent than the estimation algorithms used for comparison.

  17. Unscented Kalman filter with parameter identifiability analysis for the estimation of multiple parameters in kinetic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Syed Murtuza; Poskar, C Hart; Junker, Björn H

    2011-10-11

    In systems biology, experimentally measured parameters are not always available, necessitating the use of computationally based parameter estimation. In order to rely on estimated parameters, it is critical to first determine which parameters can be estimated for a given model and measurement set. This is done with parameter identifiability analysis. A kinetic model of the sucrose accumulation in the sugar cane culm tissue developed by Rohwer et al. was taken as a test case model. What differentiates this approach is the integration of an orthogonal-based local identifiability method into the unscented Kalman filter (UKF), rather than using the more common observability-based method which has inherent limitations. It also introduces a variable step size based on the system uncertainty of the UKF during the sensitivity calculation. This method identified 10 out of 12 parameters as identifiable. These ten parameters were estimated using the UKF, which was run 97 times. Throughout the repetitions the UKF proved to be more consistent than the estimation algorithms used for comparison.

  18. Application of lumped-parameter models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, Morten

    This technical report concerns the lumped-parameter models for a suction caisson with a ratio between skirt length and foundation diameter equal to 1/2, embedded into an viscoelastic soil. The models are presented for three different values of the shear modulus of the subsoil (section 1.1). Subse...

  19. Identification of parameters of discrete-continuous models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cekus, Dawid, E-mail: cekus@imipkm.pcz.pl; Warys, Pawel, E-mail: warys@imipkm.pcz.pl [Institute of Mechanics and Machine Design Foundations, Czestochowa University of Technology, Dabrowskiego 73, 42-201 Czestochowa (Poland)

    2015-03-10

    In the paper, the parameters of a discrete-continuous model have been identified on the basis of experimental investigations and formulation of optimization problem. The discrete-continuous model represents a cantilever stepped Timoshenko beam. The mathematical model has been formulated and solved according to the Lagrange multiplier formalism. Optimization has been based on the genetic algorithm. The presented proceeding’s stages make the identification of any parameters of discrete-continuous systems possible.

  20. Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Henrik; Johansen, Søren

    1999-01-01

    Some methods for the evaluation of parameter constancy in vector autoregressive (VAR) models are discussed. Two different ways of re-estimating the VAR model are proposed; one in which all parameters are estimated recursively based upon the likelihood function for the first observations, and anot...... be applied to test the constancy of the long-run parameters in the cointegrated VAR-model. All results are illustrated using a model for the term structure of interest rates on US Treasury securities. ...

  1. Support Vector Data Description Model to Map Specific Land Cover with Optimal Parameters Determined from a Window-Based Validation Set

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinshui Zhang

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper developed an approach, the window-based validation set for support vector data description (WVS-SVDD, to determine optimal parameters for support vector data description (SVDD model to map specific land cover by integrating training and window-based validation sets. Compared to the conventional approach where the validation set included target and outlier pixels selected visually and randomly, the validation set derived from WVS-SVDD constructed a tightened hypersphere because of the compact constraint by the outlier pixels which were located neighboring to the target class in the spectral feature space. The overall accuracies for wheat and bare land achieved were as high as 89.25% and 83.65%, respectively. However, target class was underestimated because the validation set covers only a small fraction of the heterogeneous spectra of the target class. The different window sizes were then tested to acquire more wheat pixels for validation set. The results showed that classification accuracy increased with the increasing window size and the overall accuracies were higher than 88% at all window size scales. Moreover, WVS-SVDD showed much less sensitivity to the untrained classes than the multi-class support vector machine (SVM method. Therefore, the developed method showed its merits using the optimal parameters, tradeoff coefficient (C and kernel width (s, in mapping homogeneous specific land cover.

  2. Support Vector Data Description Model to Map Specific Land Cover with Optimal Parameters Determined from a Window-Based Validation Set.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jinshui; Yuan, Zhoumiqi; Shuai, Guanyuan; Pan, Yaozhong; Zhu, Xiufang

    2017-04-26

    This paper developed an approach, the window-based validation set for support vector data description (WVS-SVDD), to determine optimal parameters for support vector data description (SVDD) model to map specific land cover by integrating training and window-based validation sets. Compared to the conventional approach where the validation set included target and outlier pixels selected visually and randomly, the validation set derived from WVS-SVDD constructed a tightened hypersphere because of the compact constraint by the outlier pixels which were located neighboring to the target class in the spectral feature space. The overall accuracies for wheat and bare land achieved were as high as 89.25% and 83.65%, respectively. However, target class was underestimated because the validation set covers only a small fraction of the heterogeneous spectra of the target class. The different window sizes were then tested to acquire more wheat pixels for validation set. The results showed that classification accuracy increased with the increasing window size and the overall accuracies were higher than 88% at all window size scales. Moreover, WVS-SVDD showed much less sensitivity to the untrained classes than the multi-class support vector machine (SVM) method. Therefore, the developed method showed its merits using the optimal parameters, tradeoff coefficient (C) and kernel width (s), in mapping homogeneous specific land cover.

  3. 基于集总参数法的IGBT模块温度预测模型%Temperature Prediction Model of IGBT Modules Based on Lumped Parameters Method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    魏克新; 杜明星

    2011-01-01

    从IGBT模块的内部结构和故障机理分析,得到影响IGBT模块可靠性的主要因素是温度的结论,而IGBT模块各层的温度是很难用实验的方法测取的。为了解决这一问题,在分析IGBT模块内部导热机理的基础上,利用瞬时非稳态导热的集总参数法建立热网络模型,并给出热损耗值、等效热阻、等效热容的提取方法。通过与制造商提供的IGBT模块结温实验数据、实测的底板温度和有限元模型相比较,热网络模型温度预测误差小于5%。%Temperature of insulated gate bipolar transistor (IGBT) modules is a main influence factor of reliability, which is very difficult to measure. In order to solve this problem, interior heat conduction mechanism is analyzed. Then thermal network model of IGBT modules is constructed by employing lumped parameters method of instantaneous unsteady heat conduction. Parameters extraction methods of equivalent thermal resistance, equivalent thermal capacitance and heat losses are preferred. The paper gives experimental and simulated temperature curves, which datum from thermal network model, technical documents, base-plate measurement and finite element model. Result show that thermal network model is validated.

  4. An Optimization Model of Tunnel Support Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Su Lijuan

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available An optimization model was developed to obtain the ideal values of the primary support parameters of tunnels, which are wide-ranging in high-speed railway design codes when the surrounding rocks are at the III, IV, and V levels. First, several sets of experiments were designed and simulated using the FLAC3D software under an orthogonal experimental design. Six factors, namely, level of surrounding rock, buried depth of tunnel, lateral pressure coefficient, anchor spacing, anchor length, and shotcrete thickness, were considered. Second, a regression equation was generated by conducting a multiple linear regression analysis following the analysis of the simulation results. Finally, the optimization model of support parameters was obtained by solving the regression equation using the least squares method. In practical projects, the optimized values of support parameters could be obtained by integrating known parameters into the proposed model. In this work, the proposed model was verified on the basis of the Liuyang River Tunnel Project. Results show that the optimization model significantly reduces related costs. The proposed model can also be used as a reliable reference for other high-speed railway tunnels.

  5. Determining Prediction Model of the Canola Brassica napus L.( Yields Based on Agrometeorological and Climatic Parameters in Mashhad Region of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    seyed javad rasooli

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Environmental factors whichaffect crop yield areone of the most important factors in increasing yield.Accurate prediction of crop yield for economic management and farming systems is of particular importance. Materials and Methods: This research was done in order to statistically model and predict the canola growth and yield in Mashhad region based on 5 agricultural meteorology indicesand 12 climatic parameters during 1999 - 2014period. The date of planting determined with regard to the optimum temperature at planting with probability of 75% based on Weibull formula. Beginning and the end of the phenological stages of canola (germination, emergence, Single leaf, rosette, stemming, flower, poddingand ripening were calculated on the basis of growing degree days (GDD for each set. Calculation and statistical equations was done usingMinitab Ver. 13.0, 16.Ver SPSS and Excelsoftwares. Correlation analysis,statistical models andmultivariate models were used to determine the relationship between the annual yield of canolaand independent variables, includingclimaticparameters and agricultural meteorologyindices during the growing season between 1999- 2000 and2009-2010for each phenological stage (8stages.The bestmodel was selected with respect to the values of the coefficient of determination (R2 and root mean square error (RMSE.If the predictive power is estimated of the model RMSE values of less than 10% excellent, between 10 and 20% good, 20 to 30% average, and higher than 30% weak. The model tested by estimating the yield of canola for the 2010 to2014 years and the correction factor was calculated and the effect. Results and Discussion: Canola planting date wascalculated for 23 September in Mashhad region. The phenology of canola was calculated based on growing degree days (GDD above 5 ° C.Germination calculatedfor25 September, emergence in 3 October, appearance single leaf in 7 October, rosette in 6 March, stemming in 4 April

  6. Analysis of Modeling Parameters on Threaded Screws.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vigil, Miquela S. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brake, Matthew Robert [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Vangoethem, Douglas [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-06-01

    Assembled mechanical systems often contain a large number of bolted connections. These bolted connections (joints) are integral aspects of the load path for structural dynamics, and, consequently, are paramount for calculating a structure's stiffness and energy dissipation prop- erties. However, analysts have not found the optimal method to model appropriately these bolted joints. The complexity of the screw geometry cause issues when generating a mesh of the model. This paper will explore different approaches to model a screw-substrate connec- tion. Model parameters such as mesh continuity, node alignment, wedge angles, and thread to body element size ratios are examined. The results of this study will give analysts a better understanding of the influences of these parameters and will aide in finding the optimal method to model bolted connections.

  7. Parameters Estimation of Geographically Weighted Ordinal Logistic Regression (GWOLR) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuhdi, Shaifudin; Retno Sari Saputro, Dewi; Widyaningsih, Purnami

    2017-06-01

    A regression model is the representation of relationship between independent variable and dependent variable. The dependent variable has categories used in the logistic regression model to calculate odds on. The logistic regression model for dependent variable has levels in the logistics regression model is ordinal. GWOLR model is an ordinal logistic regression model influenced the geographical location of the observation site. Parameters estimation in the model needed to determine the value of a population based on sample. The purpose of this research is to parameters estimation of GWOLR model using R software. Parameter estimation uses the data amount of dengue fever patients in Semarang City. Observation units used are 144 villages in Semarang City. The results of research get GWOLR model locally for each village and to know probability of number dengue fever patient categories.

  8. Re-design of a physically-based catchment scale agrochemical model for the simulation of parameter spaces and flexible transformation schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stegen, Ronald; Gassmann, Matthias

    2017-04-01

    The use of a broad variation of agrochemicals is essential for the modern industrialized agriculture. During the last decades, the awareness of the side effects of their use has grown and with it the requirement to reproduce, understand and predict the behaviour of these agrochemicals in the environment, in order to optimize their use and minimize the side effects. The modern modelling has made great progress in understanding and predicting these chemicals with digital methods. While the behaviour of the applied chemicals is often investigated and modelled, most studies only simulate parent chemicals, considering total annihilation of the substance. However, due to a diversity of chemical, physical and biological processes, the substances are rather transformed into new chemicals, which themselves are transformed until, at the end of the chain, the substance is completely mineralized. During this process, the fate of each transformation product is determined by its own environmental characteristics and the pathway and results of transformation can differ largely by substance and environmental influences, that can occur in different compartments of the same site. Simulating transformation products introduces additional model uncertainties. Thus, the calibration effort increases compared to simulations of the transport and degradation of the primary substance alone. The simulation of the necessary physical processes needs a lot of calculation time. Due to that, few physically-based models offer the possibility to simulate transformation products at all, mostly at the field scale. The few models available for the catchment scale are not optimized for this duty, i.e. they are only able to simulate a single parent compound and up to two transformation products. Thus, for simulations of large physico-chemical parameter spaces, the enormous calculation time of the underlying hydrological model diminishes the overall performance. In this study, the structure of the model

  9. Hydrological parameter estimation for ungauged basin based on satellite altimeter data and discharge modeling. A simulation for the Caqueta River (Amazonian Basin, Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. G. Leon

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this paper is to review the usefulness of altimetric data in ungauged or very poorly monitored basin. It is shown that altimetric measurements can be combined with a single in-situ gauge to derive a reliable stage-discharge relationship upstream from the gauge. The Caqueta River in the Colombian Amazon Basin was selected to simulate a poorly monitored basin. Thus it was possible to derive the stage-discharge relationship for 13 "virtual gauge stations'' defined at river crossing with radar altimetric ground tracks. Stage measurements are derived from altimetric data following the methodology developed by Leon et al. (2006. Discharge is modeled using PROGUM – a flow routing model based on the Muskingum Cunge (M-C approach considering a diffusion-cum-dynamic wave propagation (Leon et al., 2006 using a single gauge located downstream from the basin under study. Rating curve parameters at virtual stations are estimated by fitting with a power law the temporal series of water surface altitude derived from satellite measurements and the modelled discharges. The methodology allows the ellipsoidal height of effective zero flow to be estimated. This parameter is a good proxy of the mean water depth from which the bottom slope of the reaches can be computed. Validation has been conducted by comparing the results with stages and discharges measured at five other gauges available on the Caqueta basin. Outflow errors range from 10% to 20% between the upper basin and the lower basin, respectively. Mean absolute differences less than 1.10 m between estimated equivalent water depth and measured water depth indicates the reliability of the proposed method. Finally, a 1.2×10−4 mm−1 mean bottom slope has been obtained for the 730 km long reach of the Caqueta main stream considered.

  10. Modelling the surface free energy parameters of polyurethane coats-part 1. Solvent-based coats obtained from linear polyurethane elastomers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Król, Piotr; Lechowicz, Jaromir B; Król, Bożena

    2013-04-01

    Polyurethane elastomers coating were synthesised by using typical diisocyanates, polyether and polyester polyols and HO-tertiary amines or diols as a chain extenders. Mole fractions of structural fragments (κexp) responsible for the polar interactions within polyurethane chains were calculated by (1)H NMR method. Obtained results were confronted with the analogous parameter values (κtheor) calculated on the basis of process stoichiometry, considering the stage of the production of isocyanate prepolymers and reaction of their extension for polyurethanes. Trials of linear correlation between the κexp parameters and surface free energy (SFE) values of investigated coatings were presented. SFE values were determined by Owens-Wendt method, using contact angles measured with the goniometric method. Based on achieved results, another empirical models, allowing for prediction the influence of the kind of polyurethane raw materials on SFE values of received coatings were determined. It was found that it is possible to regulate the SFE in the range millijoules per cubic metre by the selection of appropriate substrates. It has been found that use of 2,2,3,3-tetrafluoro-1,4-butanediol as a fluorinated extender of prepolymer chains is essential to obtain coatings with increased hydrophobicity, applied among others as biomaterials-next to diphenylmethane diisocyanate and polyoxyethylene glycol.

  11. Water Environmental Capacity Analysis of Taihu Lake and Parameter Estimation Based on the Integration of the Inverse Method and Bayesian Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ranran Li

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available An integrated approach using the inverse method and Bayesian approach, combined with a lake eutrophication water quality model, was developed for parameter estimation and water environmental capacity (WEC analysis. The model was used to support load reduction and effective water quality management in the Taihu Lake system in eastern China. Water quality was surveyed yearly from 1987 to 2010. Total nitrogen (TN and total phosphorus (TP were selected as water quality model variables. Decay rates of TN and TP were estimated using the proposed approach. WECs of TN and TP in 2011 were determined based on the estimated decay rates. Results showed that the historical loading was beyond the WEC, thus, reduction of nitrogen and phosphorus input is necessary to meet water quality goals. Then WEC and allowable discharge capacity (ADC in 2015 and 2020 were predicted. The reduction ratios of ADC during these years were also provided. All of these enable decision makers to assess the influence of each loading and visualize potential load reductions under different water quality goals, and then to formulate a reasonable water quality management strategy.

  12. The Lund Model at Nonzero Impact Parameter

    CERN Document Server

    Janik, R A; Janik, Romuald A.; Peschanski, Robi

    2003-01-01

    We extend the formulation of the longitudinal 1+1 dimensional Lund model to nonzero impact parameter using the minimal area assumption. Complete formulae for the string breaking probability and the momenta of the produced mesons are derived using the string worldsheet Minkowskian helicoid geometry. For strings stretched into the transverse dimension, we find probability distribution with slope linear in m_T similar to the statistical models but without any thermalization assumptions.

  13. IMPROVEMENT OF FLUID PIPE LUMPED PARAMETER MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Kong Xiaowu; Wei Jianhua; Qiu Minxiu; Wu Genmao

    2004-01-01

    The traditional lumped parameter model of fluid pipe is introduced and its drawbacks are pointed out.Furthermore, two suggestions are put forward to remove these drawbacks.Firstly, the structure of equivalent circuit is modified, and then the evaluation of equivalent fluid resistance is change to take the frequency-dependent friction into account.Both simulation and experiment prove that this model is precise to characterize the dynamic behaviors of fluid in pipe.

  14. Comparison of midlatitude ionospheric F region peak parameters and topside Ne profiles from IRI2012 model prediction with ground-based ionosonde and Alouette II observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordiyenko, G. I.; Yakovets, A. F.

    2017-07-01

    The ionospheric F2 peak parameters recorded by a ground-based ionosonde at the midlatitude station Alma-Ata [43.25N, 76.92E] were compared with those obtained using the latest version of the IRI model (http://omniweb.gsfc.nasa.gov/vitmo/iri2012_vitmo.html). It was found that for the Alma-Ata (Kazakhstan) location, the IRI2012 model describes well the morphology of seasonal and diurnal variations of the ionospheric critical frequency (foF2) and peak density height (hmF2) monthly medians. The model errors in the median foF2 prediction (percentage deviations between the median foF2 values and their model predictions) were found to vary approximately in the range from about -20% to 34% and showed a stable overestimation in the median foF2 values for daytime in January and July and underestimation for day- and nighttime hours in the equinoctial months. The comparison between the ionosonde hmF2 and IRI results clearly showed that the IRI overestimates the nighttime hmF2 values for March and September months, and the difference is up to 30 km. The daytime Alma-Ata hmF2 data were found to be close to the IRI predictions (deviations are approximately ±10-15 km) in winter and equinoctial months, except in July when the observed hmF2 values were much more (from approximately 50-200 km). The comparison between the Alouette foF2 data and IRI predictions showed mixed results. In particular, the Alouette foF2 data showed a tendency to be overestimated for daytime in winter months similar to the ionosonde data; however, the overestimated foF2 values for nighttime in the autumn equinox were in disagreement with the ionosonde observations. There were large deviations between the observed hmF2 values and their model predictions. The largest deviations were found during winter and summer (up to -90 km). The comparison of the Alouette II electron density profiles with those predicted by the adapted IRI2012 model in the altitude range hmF2 of the satellite position showed a great

  15. [Calculation of parameters in forest evapotranspiration model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Anzhi; Pei, Tiefan

    2003-12-01

    Forest evapotranspiration is an important component not only in water balance, but also in energy balance. It is a great demand for the development of forest hydrology and forest meteorology to simulate the forest evapotranspiration accurately, which is also a theoretical basis for the management and utilization of water resources and forest ecosystem. Taking the broadleaved Korean pine forest on Changbai Mountain as an example, this paper constructed a mechanism model for estimating forest evapotranspiration, based on the aerodynamic principle and energy balance equation. Using the data measured by the Routine Meteorological Measurement System and Open-Path Eddy Covariance Measurement System mounted on the tower in the broadleaved Korean pine forest, the parameters displacement height d, stability functions for momentum phi m, and stability functions for heat phi h were ascertained. The displacement height of the study site was equal to 17.8 m, near to the mean canopy height, and the functions of phi m and phi h changing with gradient Richarson number R i were constructed.

  16. Consistent Stochastic Modelling of Meteocean Design Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Sterndorff, M. J.

    2000-01-01

    Consistent stochastic models of metocean design parameters and their directional dependencies are essential for reliability assessment of offshore structures. In this paper a stochastic model for the annual maximum values of the significant wave height, and the associated wind velocity, current...... velocity, and water level is presented. The stochastic model includes statistical uncertainty and dependency between the four stochastic variables. Further, a new stochastic model for annual maximum directional significant wave heights is presented. The model includes dependency between the maximum wave...... height from neighboring directional sectors. Numerical examples are presented where the models are calibrated using the Maximum Likelihood method to data from the central part of the North Sea. The calibration of the directional distributions is made such that the stochastic model for the omnidirectional...

  17. Towards predictive food process models: A protocol for parameter estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilas, Carlos; Arias-Méndez, Ana; Garcia, Miriam R; Alonso, Antonio A; Balsa-Canto, E

    2016-05-31

    Mathematical models, in particular, physics-based models, are essential tools to food product and process design, optimization and control. The success of mathematical models relies on their predictive capabilities. However, describing physical, chemical and biological changes in food processing requires the values of some, typically unknown, parameters. Therefore, parameter estimation from experimental data is critical to achieving desired model predictive properties. This work takes a new look into the parameter estimation (or identification) problem in food process modeling. First, we examine common pitfalls such as lack of identifiability and multimodality. Second, we present the theoretical background of a parameter identification protocol intended to deal with those challenges. And, to finish, we illustrate the performance of the proposed protocol with an example related to the thermal processing of packaged foods.

  18. Relationship between Cole-Cole model parameters and spectral decomposition parameters derived from SIP data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weigand, M.; Kemna, A.

    2016-06-01

    Spectral induced polarization (SIP) data are commonly analysed using phenomenological models. Among these models the Cole-Cole (CC) model is the most popular choice to describe the strength and frequency dependence of distinct polarization peaks in the data. More flexibility regarding the shape of the spectrum is provided by decomposition schemes. Here the spectral response is decomposed into individual responses of a chosen elementary relaxation model, mathematically acting as kernel in the involved integral, based on a broad range of relaxation times. A frequently used kernel function is the Debye model, but also the CC model with some other a priorly specified frequency dispersion (e.g. Warburg model) has been proposed as kernel in the decomposition. The different decomposition approaches in use, also including conductivity and resistivity formulations, pose the question to which degree the integral spectral parameters typically derived from the obtained relaxation time distribution are biased by the approach itself. Based on synthetic SIP data sampled from an ideal CC response, we here investigate how the two most important integral output parameters deviate from the corresponding CC input parameters. We find that the total chargeability may be underestimated by up to 80 per cent and the mean relaxation time may be off by up to three orders of magnitude relative to the original values, depending on the frequency dispersion of the analysed spectrum and the proximity of its peak to the frequency range limits considered in the decomposition. We conclude that a quantitative comparison of SIP parameters across different studies, or the adoption of parameter relationships from other studies, for example when transferring laboratory results to the field, is only possible on the basis of a consistent spectral analysis procedure. This is particularly important when comparing effective CC parameters with spectral parameters derived from decomposition results.

  19. Order Parameters of the Dilute A Models

    CERN Document Server

    Warnaar, S O; Seaton, K A; Nienhuis, B

    1993-01-01

    The free energy and local height probabilities of the dilute A models with broken $\\Integer_2$ symmetry are calculated analytically using inversion and corner transfer matrix methods. These models possess four critical branches. The first two branches provide new realisations of the unitary minimal series and the other two branches give a direct product of this series with an Ising model. We identify the integrable perturbations which move the dilute A models away from the critical limit. Generalised order parameters are defined and their critical exponents extracted. The associated conformal weights are found to occur on the diagonal of the relevant Kac table. In an appropriate regime the dilute A$_3$ model lies in the universality class of the Ising model in a magnetic field. In this case we obtain the magnetic exponent $\\delta=15$ directly, without the use of scaling relations.

  20. Testing Linear Models for Ability Parameters in Item Response Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Glas, Cees A.W.; Hendrawan, Irene

    2005-01-01

    Methods for testing hypotheses concerning the regression parameters in linear models for the latent person parameters in item response models are presented. Three tests are outlined: A likelihood ratio test, a Lagrange multiplier test and a Wald test. The tests are derived in a marginal maximum like

  1. Estimating parameters for generalized mass action models with connectivity information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Voit Eberhard O

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Determining the parameters of a mathematical model from quantitative measurements is the main bottleneck of modelling biological systems. Parameter values can be estimated from steady-state data or from dynamic data. The nature of suitable data for these two types of estimation is rather different. For instance, estimations of parameter values in pathway models, such as kinetic orders, rate constants, flux control coefficients or elasticities, from steady-state data are generally based on experiments that measure how a biochemical system responds to small perturbations around the steady state. In contrast, parameter estimation from dynamic data requires time series measurements for all dependent variables. Almost no literature has so far discussed the combined use of both steady-state and transient data for estimating parameter values of biochemical systems. Results In this study we introduce a constrained optimization method for estimating parameter values of biochemical pathway models using steady-state information and transient measurements. The constraints are derived from the flux connectivity relationships of the system at the steady state. Two case studies demonstrate the estimation results with and without flux connectivity constraints. The unconstrained optimal estimates from dynamic data may fit the experiments well, but they do not necessarily maintain the connectivity relationships. As a consequence, individual fluxes may be misrepresented, which may cause problems in later extrapolations. By contrast, the constrained estimation accounting for flux connectivity information reduces this misrepresentation and thereby yields improved model parameters. Conclusion The method combines transient metabolic profiles and steady-state information and leads to the formulation of an inverse parameter estimation task as a constrained optimization problem. Parameter estimation and model selection are simultaneously carried out

  2. Condition Parameter Modeling for Anomaly Detection in Wind Turbines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yonglong Yan

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Data collected from the supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA system, used widely in wind farms to obtain operational and condition information about wind turbines (WTs, is of important significance for anomaly detection in wind turbines. The paper presents a novel model for wind turbine anomaly detection mainly based on SCADA data and a back-propagation neural network (BPNN for automatic selection of the condition parameters. The SCADA data sets are determined through analysis of the cumulative probability distribution of wind speed and the relationship between output power and wind speed. The automatic BPNN-based parameter selection is for reduction of redundant parameters for anomaly detection in wind turbines. Through investigation of cases of WT faults, the validity of the automatic parameter selection-based model for WT anomaly detection is verified.

  3. Combined Estimation of Hydrogeologic Conceptual Model and Parameter Uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyer, Philip D.; Ye, Ming; Neuman, Shlomo P.; Cantrell, Kirk J.

    2004-03-01

    The objective of the research described in this report is the development and application of a methodology for comprehensively assessing the hydrogeologic uncertainties involved in dose assessment, including uncertainties associated with conceptual models, parameters, and scenarios. This report describes and applies a statistical method to quantitatively estimate the combined uncertainty in model predictions arising from conceptual model and parameter uncertainties. The method relies on model averaging to combine the predictions of a set of alternative models. Implementation is driven by the available data. When there is minimal site-specific data the method can be carried out with prior parameter estimates based on generic data and subjective prior model probabilities. For sites with observations of system behavior (and optionally data characterizing model parameters), the method uses model calibration to update the prior parameter estimates and model probabilities based on the correspondence between model predictions and site observations. The set of model alternatives can contain both simplified and complex models, with the requirement that all models be based on the same set of data. The method was applied to the geostatistical modeling of air permeability at a fractured rock site. Seven alternative variogram models of log air permeability were considered to represent data from single-hole pneumatic injection tests in six boreholes at the site. Unbiased maximum likelihood estimates of variogram and drift parameters were obtained for each model. Standard information criteria provided an ambiguous ranking of the models, which would not justify selecting one of them and discarding all others as is commonly done in practice. Instead, some of the models were eliminated based on their negligibly small updated probabilities and the rest were used to project the measured log permeabilities by kriging onto a rock volume containing the six boreholes. These four

  4. Modelling spin Hamiltonian parameters of molecular nanomagnets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Tulika; Rajaraman, Gopalan

    2016-07-12

    Molecular nanomagnets encompass a wide range of coordination complexes possessing several potential applications. A formidable challenge in realizing these potential applications lies in controlling the magnetic properties of these clusters. Microscopic spin Hamiltonian (SH) parameters describe the magnetic properties of these clusters, and viable ways to control these SH parameters are highly desirable. Computational tools play a proactive role in this area, where SH parameters such as isotropic exchange interaction (J), anisotropic exchange interaction (Jx, Jy, Jz), double exchange interaction (B), zero-field splitting parameters (D, E) and g-tensors can be computed reliably using X-ray structures. In this feature article, we have attempted to provide a holistic view of the modelling of these SH parameters of molecular magnets. The determination of J includes various class of molecules, from di- and polynuclear Mn complexes to the {3d-Gd}, {Gd-Gd} and {Gd-2p} class of complexes. The estimation of anisotropic exchange coupling includes the exchange between an isotropic metal ion and an orbitally degenerate 3d/4d/5d metal ion. The double-exchange section contains some illustrative examples of mixed valance systems, and the section on the estimation of zfs parameters covers some mononuclear transition metal complexes possessing very large axial zfs parameters. The section on the computation of g-anisotropy exclusively covers studies on mononuclear Dy(III) and Er(III) single-ion magnets. The examples depicted in this article clearly illustrate that computational tools not only aid in interpreting and rationalizing the observed magnetic properties but possess the potential to predict new generation MNMs.

  5. A topographic parameter inversion method based on laser altimetry

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HUANG ChunMing; ZHANG ShaoDong; CHEN Xi

    2012-01-01

    A topographic parameter inversion method based on laser altimetry is developed in this paper,which can be used to deduce the surface vertical profile and retrieve the topographic parameters within the laser footprints by analyzing and simulating return waveforms.This method comprises three steps.The first step is to build the numerical models for the whole measuring procedure of laser altimetry,construct digital elevation models for surfaces with different topographic parameters,and calculate return waveforms.The second step is to analyze the simulated return waveforms to obtain their characteristics parameters,summarize the effects of the topographic parameter variations on the characteristic parameters of simulated return waveforms,and analyze the observed return waveforms of laser altimeters to acquire their characteristic parameters at the same time.The last step is to match the characteristic parameters of the simulated and observed return waveforms,and deduce the topographic parameters within the laser footprint.This method can be used to retrieve the topographic parameters within the laser footprint from the observed return waveforms of spaceborne laser altimeters and to get knowledge about the surface altitude distribution within the laser footprint other than only getting the height of the surface encountered firstly by the laser beam,which extends laser altimeters' function and makes them more like radars.

  6. Retrospective forecast of ETAS model with daily parameters estimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falcone, Giuseppe; Murru, Maura; Console, Rodolfo; Marzocchi, Warner; Zhuang, Jiancang

    2016-04-01

    We present a retrospective ETAS (Epidemic Type of Aftershock Sequence) model based on the daily updating of free parameters during the background, the learning and the test phase of a seismic sequence. The idea was born after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The CSEP (Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability) Center in Japan provided an appropriate testing benchmark for the five 1-day submitted models. Of all the models, only one was able to successfully predict the number of events that really happened. This result was verified using both the real time and the revised catalogs. The main cause of the failure was in the underestimation of the forecasted events, due to model parameters maintained fixed during the test. Moreover, the absence in the learning catalog of an event similar to the magnitude of the mainshock (M9.0), which drastically changed the seismicity in the area, made the learning parameters not suitable to describe the real seismicity. As an example of this methodological development we show the evolution of the model parameters during the last two strong seismic sequences in Italy: the 2009 L'Aquila and the 2012 Reggio Emilia episodes. The achievement of the model with daily updated parameters is compared with that of same model where the parameters remain fixed during the test time.

  7. Modelling tourists arrival using time varying parameter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suciptawati, P.; Sukarsa, K. G.; Kencana, Eka N.

    2017-06-01

    The importance of tourism and its related sectors to support economic development and poverty reduction in many countries increase researchers’ attentions to study and model tourists’ arrival. This work is aimed to demonstrate time varying parameter (TVP) technique to model the arrival of Korean’s tourists to Bali. The number of Korean tourists whom visiting Bali for period January 2010 to December 2015 were used to model the number of Korean’s tourists to Bali (KOR) as dependent variable. The predictors are the exchange rate of Won to IDR (WON), the inflation rate in Korea (INFKR), and the inflation rate in Indonesia (INFID). Observing tourists visit to Bali tend to fluctuate by their nationality, then the model was built by applying TVP and its parameters were approximated using Kalman Filter algorithm. The results showed all of predictor variables (WON, INFKR, INFID) significantly affect KOR. For in-sample and out-of-sample forecast with ARIMA’s forecasted values for the predictors, TVP model gave mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) as much as 11.24 percent and 12.86 percent, respectively.

  8. A software for parameter estimation in dynamic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Yuceer

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available A common problem in dynamic systems is to determine parameters in an equation used to represent experimental data. The goal is to determine the values of model parameters that provide the best fit to measured data, generally based on some type of least squares or maximum likelihood criterion. In the most general case, this requires the solution of a nonlinear and frequently non-convex optimization problem. Some of the available software lack in generality, while others do not provide ease of use. A user-interactive parameter estimation software was needed for identifying kinetic parameters. In this work we developed an integration based optimization approach to provide a solution to such problems. For easy implementation of the technique, a parameter estimation software (PARES has been developed in MATLAB environment. When tested with extensive example problems from literature, the suggested approach is proven to provide good agreement between predicted and observed data within relatively less computing time and iterations.

  9. An Effective Parameter Screening Strategy for High Dimensional Watershed Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khare, Y. P.; Martinez, C. J.; Munoz-Carpena, R.

    2014-12-01

    Watershed simulation models can assess the impacts of natural and anthropogenic disturbances on natural systems. These models have become important tools for tackling a range of water resources problems through their implementation in the formulation and evaluation of Best Management Practices, Total Maximum Daily Loads, and Basin Management Action Plans. For accurate applications of watershed models they need to be thoroughly evaluated through global uncertainty and sensitivity analyses (UA/SA). However, due to the high dimensionality of these models such evaluation becomes extremely time- and resource-consuming. Parameter screening, the qualitative separation of important parameters, has been suggested as an essential step before applying rigorous evaluation techniques such as the Sobol' and Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST) methods in the UA/SA framework. The method of elementary effects (EE) (Morris, 1991) is one of the most widely used screening methodologies. Some of the common parameter sampling strategies for EE, e.g. Optimized Trajectories [OT] (Campolongo et al., 2007) and Modified Optimized Trajectories [MOT] (Ruano et al., 2012), suffer from inconsistencies in the generated parameter distributions, infeasible sample generation time, etc. In this work, we have formulated a new parameter sampling strategy - Sampling for Uniformity (SU) - for parameter screening which is based on the principles of the uniformity of the generated parameter distributions and the spread of the parameter sample. A rigorous multi-criteria evaluation (time, distribution, spread and screening efficiency) of OT, MOT, and SU indicated that SU is superior to other sampling strategies. Comparison of the EE-based parameter importance rankings with those of Sobol' helped to quantify the qualitativeness of the EE parameter screening approach, reinforcing the fact that one should use EE only to reduce the resource burden required by FAST/Sobol' analyses but not to replace it.

  10. Parameter Estimation of Photovoltaic Models via Cuckoo Search

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jieming Ma

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Since conventional methods are incapable of estimating the parameters of Photovoltaic (PV models with high accuracy, bioinspired algorithms have attracted significant attention in the last decade. Cuckoo Search (CS is invented based on the inspiration of brood parasitic behavior of some cuckoo species in combination with the Lévy flight behavior. In this paper, a CS-based parameter estimation method is proposed to extract the parameters of single-diode models for commercial PV generators. Simulation results and experimental data show that the CS algorithm is capable of obtaining all the parameters with extremely high accuracy, depicted by a low Root-Mean-Squared-Error (RMSE value. The proposed method outperforms other algorithms applied in this study.

  11. Optimal Parameter and Uncertainty Estimation of a Land Surface Model: Sensitivity to Parameter Ranges and Model Complexities

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Youlong XIA; Zong-Liang YANG; Paul L. STOFFA; Mrinal K. SEN

    2005-01-01

    Most previous land-surface model calibration studies have defined global ranges for their parameters to search for optimal parameter sets. Little work has been conducted to study the impacts of realistic versus global ranges as well as model complexities on the calibration and uncertainty estimates. The primary purpose of this paper is to investigate these impacts by employing Bayesian Stochastic Inversion (BSI)to the Chameleon Surface Model (CHASM). The CHASM was designed to explore the general aspects of land-surface energy balance representation within a common modeling framework that can be run from a simple energy balance formulation to a complex mosaic type structure. The BSI is an uncertainty estimation technique based on Bayes theorem, importance sampling, and very fast simulated annealing.The model forcing data and surface flux data were collected at seven sites representing a wide range of climate and vegetation conditions. For each site, four experiments were performed with simple and complex CHASM formulations as well as realistic and global parameter ranges. Twenty eight experiments were conducted and 50 000 parameter sets were used for each run. The results show that the use of global and realistic ranges gives similar simulations for both modes for most sites, but the global ranges tend to produce some unreasonable optimal parameter values. Comparison of simple and complex modes shows that the simple mode has more parameters with unreasonable optimal values. Use of parameter ranges and model complexities have significant impacts on frequency distribution of parameters, marginal posterior probability density functions, and estimates of uncertainty of simulated sensible and latent heat fluxes.Comparison between model complexity and parameter ranges shows that the former has more significant impacts on parameter and uncertainty estimations.

  12. Estimation of the parameters of ETAS models by Simulated Annealing

    OpenAIRE

    Lombardi, Anna Maria

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a new algorithm to estimate the maximum likelihood parameters of an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) model. It is based on Simulated Annealing, a versatile method that solves problems of global optimization and ensures convergence to a global optimum. The procedure is tested on both simulated and real catalogs. The main conclusion is that the method performs poorly as the size of the catalog decreases because the effect of the correlation of the ETAS parameters is...

  13. Parameter estimation, model reduction and quantum filtering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chase, Bradley A.

    This thesis explores the topics of parameter estimation and model reduction in the context of quantum filtering. The last is a mathematically rigorous formulation of continuous quantum measurement, in which a stream of auxiliary quantum systems is used to infer the state of a target quantum system. Fundamental quantum uncertainties appear as noise which corrupts the probe observations and therefore must be filtered in order to extract information about the target system. This is analogous to the classical filtering problem in which techniques of inference are used to process noisy observations of a system in order to estimate its state. Given the clear similarities between the two filtering problems, I devote the beginning of this thesis to a review of classical and quantum probability theory, stochastic calculus and filtering. This allows for a mathematically rigorous and technically adroit presentation of the quantum filtering problem and solution. Given this foundation, I next consider the related problem of quantum parameter estimation, in which one seeks to infer the strength of a parameter that drives the evolution of a probe quantum system. By embedding this problem in the state estimation problem solved by the quantum filter, I present the optimal Bayesian estimator for a parameter when given continuous measurements of the probe system to which it couples. For cases when the probe takes on a finite number of values, I review a set of sufficient conditions for asymptotic convergence of the estimator. For a continuous-valued parameter, I present a computational method called quantum particle filtering for practical estimation of the parameter. Using these methods, I then study the particular problem of atomic magnetometry and review an experimental method for potentially reducing the uncertainty in the estimate of the magnetic field beyond the standard quantum limit. The technique involves double-passing a probe laser field through the atomic system, giving

  14. Research on Model Parameter Identification Based on Normal Stochastic Petri Net%基于正态Petri网的模型参数识别研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈哲; 刘久富; 王正谦

    2014-01-01

    The factor of time had played an important role in the analysis of real-time systems. As the importance of time analysis in the application of Petri nets is increasing,a variety of timed Petri net models were proposed. Considering the characteristics of dynamic real-time systems,a stochastic Petri net with normal distributions of the firing periods was designed and a method for the identification of the parameters was proposed based on a statistical analysis of the behavior of the system. The system model of a random manufacturing unit was built with normal Petri net and the parameters of firing periods were verified by the estimation algorithm. The simulation results fit in-to the actual behavior of the system and prove the effectiveness of this method.%时间因素在对实时系统的分析中占据着重要的位置。随着时间因素在Petri网应用分析中的地位越发重要,各种与时间相关的Petri网模型相继被提出。文中结合动态实时系统的运行特征,设计了一种变迁点火时间服从正态分布的随机Petri网模型,并基于对系统行为的统计分析,提出了一种用于对变迁时间参数进行识别的数值算法。以一种随机制造单元为例,建立正态随机Petri网模型,并运用参数识别算法确定变迁时间参数。仿真结果符合系统的实际运行结果,证明了该方法的有效性。

  15. Muscle parameters estimation based on biplanar radiography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubois, G; Rouch, P; Bonneau, D; Gennisson, J L; Skalli, W

    2016-11-01

    The evaluation of muscle and joint forces in vivo is still a challenge. Musculo-Skeletal (musculo-skeletal) models are used to compute forces based on movement analysis. Most of them are built from a scaled-generic model based on cadaver measurements, which provides a low level of personalization, or from Magnetic Resonance Images, which provide a personalized model in lying position. This study proposed an original two steps method to access a subject-specific musculo-skeletal model in 30 min, which is based solely on biplanar X-Rays. First, the subject-specific 3D geometry of bones and skin envelopes were reconstructed from biplanar X-Rays radiography. Then, 2200 corresponding control points were identified between a reference model and the subject-specific X-Rays model. Finally, the shape of 21 lower limb muscles was estimated using a non-linear transformation between the control points in order to fit the muscle shape of the reference model to the X-Rays model. Twelfth musculo-skeletal models were reconstructed and compared to their reference. The muscle volume was not accurately estimated with a standard deviation (SD) ranging from 10 to 68%. However, this method provided an accurate estimation the muscle line of action with a SD of the length difference lower than 2% and a positioning error lower than 20 mm. The moment arm was also well estimated with SD lower than 15% for most muscle, which was significantly better than scaled-generic model for most muscle. This method open the way to a quick modeling method for gait analysis based on biplanar radiography.

  16. Circular object recognition based on shape parameters

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chen Aijun; Li Jinzong; Zhu Bing

    2007-01-01

    To recognize circular objects rapidly in satellite remote sensing imagery, an approach using their geometry properties is presented.The original image is segmented to be a binary one by one dimension maximum entropy threshold algorithm and the binary image is labeled with an algorithm based on recursion technique.Then, shape parameters of all labeled regions are calculated and those regions with shape parameters satisfying certain conditions are recognized as circular objects.The algorithm is described in detail, and comparison experiments with the randomized Hough transformation (RHT) are also provided.The experimental results on synthetic images and real images show that the proposed method has the merits of fast recognition rate, high recognition efficiency and the ability of anti-noise and anti-jamming.In addition, the method performs well when some circular objects are little deformed and partly misshapen.

  17. Parameter Estimation for Groundwater Models under Uncertain Irrigation Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demissie, Yonas; Valocchi, Albert; Cai, Ximing; Brozovic, Nicholas; Senay, Gabriel; Gebremichael, Mekonnen

    2015-01-01

    The success of modeling groundwater is strongly influenced by the accuracy of the model parameters that are used to characterize the subsurface system. However, the presence of uncertainty and possibly bias in groundwater model source/sink terms may lead to biased estimates of model parameters and model predictions when the standard regression-based inverse modeling techniques are used. This study first quantifies the levels of bias in groundwater model parameters and predictions due to the presence of errors in irrigation data. Then, a new inverse modeling technique called input uncertainty weighted least-squares (IUWLS) is presented for unbiased estimation of the parameters when pumping and other source/sink data are uncertain. The approach uses the concept of generalized least-squares method with the weight of the objective function depending on the level of pumping uncertainty and iteratively adjusted during the parameter optimization process. We have conducted both analytical and numerical experiments, using irrigation pumping data from the Republican River Basin in Nebraska, to evaluate the performance of ordinary least-squares (OLS) and IUWLS calibration methods under different levels of uncertainty of irrigation data and calibration conditions. The result from the OLS method shows the presence of statistically significant (p irrigation pumping uncertainties during the calibration procedures, the proposed IUWLS is able to minimize the bias effectively without adding significant computational burden to the calibration processes.

  18. Parameter estimation for groundwater models under uncertain irrigation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demissie, Yonas; Valocchi, Albert J.; Cai, Ximing; Brozovic, Nicholas; Senay, Gabriel; Gebremichael, Mekonnen

    2015-01-01

    The success of modeling groundwater is strongly influenced by the accuracy of the model parameters that are used to characterize the subsurface system. However, the presence of uncertainty and possibly bias in groundwater model source/sink terms may lead to biased estimates of model parameters and model predictions when the standard regression-based inverse modeling techniques are used. This study first quantifies the levels of bias in groundwater model parameters and predictions due to the presence of errors in irrigation data. Then, a new inverse modeling technique called input uncertainty weighted least-squares (IUWLS) is presented for unbiased estimation of the parameters when pumping and other source/sink data are uncertain. The approach uses the concept of generalized least-squares method with the weight of the objective function depending on the level of pumping uncertainty and iteratively adjusted during the parameter optimization process. We have conducted both analytical and numerical experiments, using irrigation pumping data from the Republican River Basin in Nebraska, to evaluate the performance of ordinary least-squares (OLS) and IUWLS calibration methods under different levels of uncertainty of irrigation data and calibration conditions. The result from the OLS method shows the presence of statistically significant (p irrigation pumping uncertainties during the calibration procedures, the proposed IUWLS is able to minimize the bias effectively without adding significant computational burden to the calibration processes.

  19. Cosmological Models with Variable Deceleration Parameter in Lyra's Manifold

    CERN Document Server

    Pradhan, A; Singh, C B

    2006-01-01

    FRW models of the universe have been studied in the cosmological theory based on Lyra's manifold. A new class of exact solutions has been obtained by considering a time dependent displacement field for variable deceleration parameter from which three models of the universe are derived (i) exponential (ii) polynomial and (iii) sinusoidal form respectively. The behaviour of these models of the universe are also discussed. Finally some possibilities of further problems and their investigations have been pointed out.

  20. SPOTting Model Parameters Using a Ready-Made Python Package.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houska, Tobias; Kraft, Philipp; Chamorro-Chavez, Alejandro; Breuer, Lutz

    2015-01-01

    The choice for specific parameter estimation methods is often more dependent on its availability than its performance. We developed SPOTPY (Statistical Parameter Optimization Tool), an open source python package containing a comprehensive set of methods typically used to calibrate, analyze and optimize parameters for a wide range of ecological models. SPOTPY currently contains eight widely used algorithms, 11 objective functions, and can sample from eight parameter distributions. SPOTPY has a model-independent structure and can be run in parallel from the workstation to large computation clusters using the Message Passing Interface (MPI). We tested SPOTPY in five different case studies to parameterize the Rosenbrock, Griewank and Ackley functions, a one-dimensional physically based soil moisture routine, where we searched for parameters of the van Genuchten-Mualem function and a calibration of a biogeochemistry model with different objective functions. The case studies reveal that the implemented SPOTPY methods can be used for any model with just a minimal amount of code for maximal power of parameter optimization. They further show the benefit of having one package at hand that includes number of well performing parameter search methods, since not every case study can be solved sufficiently with every algorithm or every objective function.

  1. SPOTting Model Parameters Using a Ready-Made Python Package.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Houska

    Full Text Available The choice for specific parameter estimation methods is often more dependent on its availability than its performance. We developed SPOTPY (Statistical Parameter Optimization Tool, an open source python package containing a comprehensive set of methods typically used to calibrate, analyze and optimize parameters for a wide range of ecological models. SPOTPY currently contains eight widely used algorithms, 11 objective functions, and can sample from eight parameter distributions. SPOTPY has a model-independent structure and can be run in parallel from the workstation to large computation clusters using the Message Passing Interface (MPI. We tested SPOTPY in five different case studies to parameterize the Rosenbrock, Griewank and Ackley functions, a one-dimensional physically based soil moisture routine, where we searched for parameters of the van Genuchten-Mualem function and a calibration of a biogeochemistry model with different objective functions. The case studies reveal that the implemented SPOTPY methods can be used for any model with just a minimal amount of code for maximal power of parameter optimization. They further show the benefit of having one package at hand that includes number of well performing parameter search methods, since not every case study can be solved sufficiently with every algorithm or every objective function.

  2. Parameter Production Function Estimation Model Based on Non-parameter DEA Front Line%基于非参数DEA前沿的参数生产函数估计模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郑方贤; 杨科威

    2004-01-01

    Research on product function is always a attractive field to economists. Based on frame of theoretical product function, we develop mathematical models by which the frontier product function can be determined underlying the actual product states of a production system by means of DEA. And with proper statistical hypothesis, a new parametric estimate model which has strong consistency is presented.

  3. Paris law parameter identification based on the Extended Kalman Filter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melgar M.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Aircraft structures are commonly subjected to repeated loading cycles leading to fatigue damage. Fatigue data can be extrapolated by fatigue models which are adopted to describe the fatigue damage behaviour. Such models depend on their parameters for accurate prediction of the fatigue life. Therefore, several methods have been developed for estimating the model parameters for both linear and nonlinear systems. It is useful for a broad class of parameter identification problems when the dynamic model is not known. In this paper, the Paris law is used as fatigue-crack-length growth model on a metallic component under loading cycles. The Extended Kalman Filter (EKF is proposed as estimation method. Simulated crack length data is used to validate the estimation method. Based on experimental data obtained from fatigue experiment, the crack length and model parameters are estimated. Accurate model parameters allow a more realistic prediction of the fatigue life, consequently, the remaining useful life (RUL of component can be accurately computed. In this sense, maintenance performance could be improved.

  4. Parameter estimation and model selection in computational biology.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriele Lillacci

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available A central challenge in computational modeling of biological systems is the determination of the model parameters. Typically, only a fraction of the parameters (such as kinetic rate constants are experimentally measured, while the rest are often fitted. The fitting process is usually based on experimental time course measurements of observables, which are used to assign parameter values that minimize some measure of the error between these measurements and the corresponding model prediction. The measurements, which can come from immunoblotting assays, fluorescent markers, etc., tend to be very noisy and taken at a limited number of time points. In this work we present a new approach to the problem of parameter selection of biological models. We show how one can use a dynamic recursive estimator, known as extended Kalman filter, to arrive at estimates of the model parameters. The proposed method follows. First, we use a variation of the Kalman filter that is particularly well suited to biological applications to obtain a first guess for the unknown parameters. Secondly, we employ an a posteriori identifiability test to check the reliability of the estimates. Finally, we solve an optimization problem to refine the first guess in case it should not be accurate enough. The final estimates are guaranteed to be statistically consistent with the measurements. Furthermore, we show how the same tools can be used to discriminate among alternate models of the same biological process. We demonstrate these ideas by applying our methods to two examples, namely a model of the heat shock response in E. coli, and a model of a synthetic gene regulation system. The methods presented are quite general and may be applied to a wide class of biological systems where noisy measurements are used for parameter estimation or model selection.

  5. Construction of constant-Q viscoelastic model with three parameters

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Cheng-yu; YIN Xing-yao

    2007-01-01

    The popularly used viscoelastic models have some shortcomings in describing relationship between quality factor (Q) and frequency, which is not consistent with the observation data. Based on the theory of viscoelasticity, a new approach to construct constant-Q viscoelastic model in given frequency band with three parameters is developed. The designed model describes the frequency-independence feature of quality factor very well, and the effect of viscoelasticity on seismic wave field can be studied relatively accurate in theory with this model. Furthermore, the number of required parameters in this model has been reduced fewer than that of other constant-Q models, this can simplify the solution of the viscoelastic problems to some extent. At last, the accuracy and application range have been analyzed through numerical tests. The effect of viscoelasticity on wave propagation has been briefly illustrated through the change of frequency spectra and waveform in several different viscoelastic models.

  6. Reference physiological parameters for pharmacodynamic modeling of liver cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Travis, C.C.; Arms, A.D.

    1988-01-01

    This document presents a compilation of measured values for physiological parameters used in pharamacodynamic modeling of liver cancer. The physiological parameters include body weight, liver weight, the liver weight/body weight ratio, and number of hepatocytes. Reference values for use in risk assessment are given for each of the physiological parameters based on analyses of valid measurements taken from the literature and other reliable sources. The proposed reference values for rodents include sex-specific measurements for the B6C3F{sub 1}, mice and Fishcer 344/N, Sprague-Dawley, and Wistar rats. Reference values are also provided for humans. 102 refs., 65 tabs.

  7. 基于最小二乘法的飞行员模型参数辨识%Pilot Model Parameters Identification Based Least Square Method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    高健; 郑淑涛; 韩俊伟

    2011-01-01

    Taking the performance of pilot adaptation to the aircraft into account, the pilot model parameters are identified by using the least squares method. It is validated which parameters will be identified according to characteristics of Hosman perception model, as well as outliers of data are deleted and corrected for improving identification precision. The recursive least squares is used to identify the model parameters in pitch task, and verified on a research flight simulator. The results show that the error for elevator angle between the output curves of pilot model and the test datum for nominal aircraft is less than 0. 3 deg, and that for pitch angle less than 0.5 deg. These smaller errors indicate the pilot model parameters can correctly describe pilots manipulation behavior.%针对飞行员与飞机相匹配的特点,采用最小二乘法对飞行员模型进行参数辨识.根据Hosman感知模型的特点,确立待辨识参数,为提高辨识精度,重点分析了辨识数据野值的剔除和补正.在俯仰工况下,利用最小二乘递推算法辨识参数,并在研究用Boeing 737-800飞行模拟机上对该方法进行了试验验证.结果表明,飞行员模型的仿真输出曲线与飞行测试数据之间的升降舵角度误差小于0.3°,俯仰角误差小于0.5°,说明通过该方法获得的模型参数能够反映飞行员实际的操作行为.

  8. Comparative Analysis of Visco-elastic Models with Variable Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silviu Nastac

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a theoretical comparative study for computational behaviour analysis of vibration isolation elements based on viscous and elastic models with variable parameters. The changing of elastic and viscous parameters can be produced by natural timed evolution demo-tion or by heating developed into the elements during their working cycle. It was supposed both linear and non-linear numerical viscous and elastic models, and their combinations. The results show the impor-tance of numerical model tuning with the real behaviour, as such the characteristics linearity, and the essential parameters for damping and rigidity. Multiple comparisons between linear and non-linear simulation cases dignify the basis of numerical model optimization regarding mathematical complexity vs. results reliability.

  9. The STATFLUX code: a statistical method for calculation of flow and set of parameters, based on the Multiple-Compartment Biokinetical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, F.; Mesa, J.; Arruda-Neto, J. D. T.; Helene, O.; Vanin, V.; Milian, F.; Deppman, A.; Rodrigues, T. E.; Rodriguez, O.

    2007-03-01

    The code STATFLUX, implementing a new and simple statistical procedure for the calculation of transfer coefficients in radionuclide transport to animals and plants, is proposed. The method is based on the general multiple-compartment model, which uses a system of linear equations involving geometrical volume considerations. Flow parameters were estimated by employing two different least-squares procedures: Derivative and Gauss-Marquardt methods, with the available experimental data of radionuclide concentrations as the input functions of time. The solution of the inverse problem, which relates a given set of flow parameter with the time evolution of concentration functions, is achieved via a Monte Carlo simulation procedure. Program summaryTitle of program:STATFLUX Catalogue identifier:ADYS_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/ADYS_v1_0 Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University of Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: none Computer for which the program is designed and others on which it has been tested:Micro-computer with Intel Pentium III, 3.0 GHz Installation:Laboratory of Linear Accelerator, Department of Experimental Physics, University of São Paulo, Brazil Operating system:Windows 2000 and Windows XP Programming language used:Fortran-77 as implemented in Microsoft Fortran 4.0. NOTE: Microsoft Fortran includes non-standard features which are used in this program. Standard Fortran compilers such as, g77, f77, ifort and NAG95, are not able to compile the code and therefore it has not been possible for the CPC Program Library to test the program. Memory required to execute with typical data:8 Mbytes of RAM memory and 100 MB of Hard disk memory No. of bits in a word:16 No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.:6912 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.:229 541 Distribution format:tar.gz Nature of the physical problem:The investigation of transport mechanisms for

  10. Model parameters for simulation of physiological lipids

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGlinchey, Nicholas

    2016-01-01

    Coarse grain simulation of proteins in their physiological membrane environment can offer insight across timescales, but requires a comprehensive force field. Parameters are explored for multicomponent bilayers composed of unsaturated lipids DOPC and DOPE, mixed‐chain saturation POPC and POPE, and anionic lipids found in bacteria: POPG and cardiolipin. A nonbond representation obtained from multiscale force matching is adapted for these lipids and combined with an improved bonding description of cholesterol. Equilibrating the area per lipid yields robust bilayer simulations and properties for common lipid mixtures with the exception of pure DOPE, which has a known tendency to form nonlamellar phase. The models maintain consistency with an existing lipid–protein interaction model, making the force field of general utility for studying membrane proteins in physiologically representative bilayers. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Computational Chemistry Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:26864972

  11. Improved parameter estimation for hydrological models using weighted object functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stein, A.; Zaadnoordijk, W.J.

    1999-01-01

    This paper discusses the sensitivity of calibration of hydrological model parameters to different objective functions. Several functions are defined with weights depending upon the hydrological background. These are compared with an objective function based upon kriging. Calibration is applied to pi

  12. The Matlab / Simulink simulation model of the PV array based on the four-parameter model%基于四参数模型的光伏阵列Matlab/Simulink仿真模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    侯金明; 许鹏

    2013-01-01

    继承了传统四参数模型结构简单、计算快速的特点,克服了传统四参数模型准确度低的问题,提出了一个快速、准确、具有通用性的光伏模型.基于此新型四参数光伏模型,在Matlab/Simulink平台中建立了此模型的计算模块.通过对比试验表明,该模型具有极佳的准确度,整体最大功率偏差在2%以下,光伏阵列长期运行环境条件下的最大功率偏差在1%以下.%A new four-parameter model,which inherits the simple and quick advantage of traditional four-parameter model,and simultaneously overcomes the problem of low accuracy,was established.It's a convenient,fast,highly accurate and generic PV simulation model.Based on this PV model,a calculation module was established under Matlab/Simulink platform.Comparative experiments show that the model has excellent accuracy.The overall deviation of the maximum power is less than 2% and the deviation of the maximum power is less than 1% under the PV array's long-term operation conditions.

  13. Modelling of Water Turbidity Parameters in a Water Treatment Plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. S. KOVO

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The high cost of chemical analysis of water has necessitated various researches into finding alternative method of determining portable water quality. This paper is aimed at modelling the turbidity value as a water quality parameter. Mathematical models for turbidity removal were developed based on the relationships between water turbidity and other water criteria. Results showed that the turbidity of water is the cumulative effect of the individual parameters/factors affecting the system. A model equation for the evaluation and prediction of a clarifier’s performance was developed:Model: T = T0(-1.36729 + 0.037101∙10λpH + 0.048928t + 0.00741387∙alkThe developed model will aid the predictive assessment of water treatment plant performance. The limitations of the models are as a result of insufficient variable considered during the conceptualization.

  14. Cold Model-Based Investigations to Study the Effects of Operational and Nonoperational Parameters on the Ruhrstahl-Heraeus Degassing Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, Deepjyoti; Shukla, Ajay Kumar; Senk, Dieter G.

    2017-04-01

    The circulation rate of steel is known to play a vital role in the superlative performance of the Ruhrstahl-Heraeus (RH) degasser. Numerous experiments were conducted on a physical model for the RH degassing process, which was established at IEHK, RWTH-Aachen University. The model was developed with a scale ratio of 1:3 to study the RH process. This study is conducted to show the effects of operational and nonoperational parameters on the circulation rate of liquid water in the model. The effects of lift gas flow rate, submerged depth of snorkels, water level in vessel, etc. on the circulation rate are studied. The mixing characteristics are studied with the help of current conductivity experiments for different lift gas flow rates and water levels in the vacuum vessel. Finally, the relationship between dimensionless numbers is derived with the help of the experimental data obtained from the cold model.

  15. Estimation of the parameters of ETAS models by Simulated Annealing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardi, Anna Maria

    2015-02-01

    This paper proposes a new algorithm to estimate the maximum likelihood parameters of an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) model. It is based on Simulated Annealing, a versatile method that solves problems of global optimization and ensures convergence to a global optimum. The procedure is tested on both simulated and real catalogs. The main conclusion is that the method performs poorly as the size of the catalog decreases because the effect of the correlation of the ETAS parameters is more significant. These results give new insights into the ETAS model and the efficiency of the maximum-likelihood method within this context.

  16. J-A Hysteresis Model Parameters Estimation using GA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogomir Zidaric

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the Jiles and Atherton (J-A hysteresis model parameter estimation for soft magnetic composite (SMC material. The calculation of Jiles and Atherton hysteresis model parameters is based on experimental data and genetic algorithms (GA. Genetic algorithms operate in a given area of possible solutions. Finding the best solution of a problem in wide area of possible solutions is uncertain. A new approach in use of genetic algorithms is proposed to overcome this uncertainty. The basis of this approach is in genetic algorithm built in another genetic algorithm.

  17. Parameter discovery in stochastic biological models using simulated annealing and statistical model checking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Faraz; Jha, Sumit K; Jha, Susmit; Langmead, Christopher J

    2014-01-01

    Stochastic models are increasingly used to study the behaviour of biochemical systems. While the structure of such models is often readily available from first principles, unknown quantitative features of the model are incorporated into the model as parameters. Algorithmic discovery of parameter values from experimentally observed facts remains a challenge for the computational systems biology community. We present a new parameter discovery algorithm that uses simulated annealing, sequential hypothesis testing, and statistical model checking to learn the parameters in a stochastic model. We apply our technique to a model of glucose and insulin metabolism used for in-silico validation of artificial pancreata and demonstrate its effectiveness by developing parallel CUDA-based implementation for parameter synthesis in this model.

  18. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-06-27

    ], Section 6.2). Parameter values developed in this report, and the related FEPs, are listed in Table 1-1. The relationship between the parameters and FEPs was based on a comparison of the parameter definition and the FEP descriptions as presented in BSC (2003 [160699], Section 6.2). The parameter values developed in this report support the biosphere model and are reflected in the TSPA through the biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). Biosphere modeling focuses on radionuclides screened for the TSPA-LA (BSC 2002 [160059]). The same list of radionuclides is used in this analysis (Section 6.1.4). The analysis considers two human exposure scenarios (groundwater and volcanic ash) and climate change (Section 6.1.5). This analysis combines and revises two previous reports, ''Transfer Coefficient Analysis'' (CRWMS M&O 2000 [152435]) and ''Environmental Transport Parameter Analysis'' (CRWMS M&O 2001 [152434]), because the new ERMYN biosphere model requires a redefined set of input parameters. The scope of this analysis includes providing a technical basis for the selection of radionuclide- and element-specific biosphere parameters (except for Kd) that are important for calculating BDCFs based on the available radionuclide inventory abstraction data. The environmental transport parameter values were developed specifically for use in the biosphere model and may not be appropriate for other applications.

  19. 小波递推最小二乘法的ARMAX模型参数估计%Parameter Estimation of ARMAX Model Based on Wavelet RLS Method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李振强

    2012-01-01

    For the linear ARMAX model with the noise corrupted output data, a method of parameter estimation was proposed to estimate the parameters of the model with the input - output data in wavelet domain directly. The least squared (LS) method is an important method for parameter estimation in time domain, with the wavelet transform developed, it plays an important role in signal processing. By means of wavelet transform, the signal has both characteristics of time and frequency and becomes a signal in wavelet domain. Then the denoising result is more effective than in time domain and in frequency domain. The parameters of model were estimated by the wavelet least squared method, compared with the least squared method in time domain, the proposed method is more feasible and effective by the simulation.%研究辨识系统优化问题,针对线性时不变ARMAX模型的参数估计,为了提高辨识精度,提出了直接利用小波域的数据,递推估计出模型的参数的方法.首先将时域的输入输出信号采用小波变换,得到了具有时频特征的小波域信号,可进行去噪方面的处理,去噪结果比时域和频域更有效.然后,利用小波递推最小二乘法对ARMAX模型进行参数估计,通过与时域递推最小二乘法的估计参数比较,仿真结果表明提出的方法是有效的.

  20. The influences of model parameters on the characteristics of memristors

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhou Jing; Huang Da

    2012-01-01

    As the fourth passive circuit component,a memristor is a nonlinear resistor that can "remember" the amount of charge passing through it.The characteristic of "remembering" the charge and non-volatility makes memristors great potential candidates in many fields.Nowadays,only a few groups have the ability to fabricate memristors,and most researchers study them by theoretic analysis and simulation.In this paper,we first analyse the theoretical base and characteristics of memristors,then use a simulation program with integrated circuit emphasis as our tool to simulate the theoretical model of memristors and change the parameters in the model to see the influence of each parameter on the characteristics.Our work supplies researchers engaged in memristor-based circuits with advice on how to choose the proper parameters.

  1. Prediction model of winter wheat yield based on soil parameters%基于土壤参数的冬小麦产量预测模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨玮; 孙红; 郑立华; 李民赞

    2013-01-01

    为了实现冬小麦的精细田间管理,研究了基于土壤参数的冬小麦产量预测模型。采用灰色理论对冬小麦土壤电导率 EC值,全氮含量,K+、NO3-以及土壤pH值等因子进行灰色关联度分析,结果表明土壤EC值与土壤全氮含量,K+以及土壤 pH 值的灰色关联度较高。在分析不同生长时期土壤 EC 值,全氮含量,K+、NO3-以及土壤pH值和产量间的相关系数的基础上,采用土壤EC值,全氮含量以及K+作为模型的输入,产量作为输出,建立了冬小麦产量预测BP神经网络(BPNN)模型;采用土壤EC值,全氮含量,K+,灰色关联度作为输入,建立了小麦产量的模糊最小二乘支持向量机(FLSSVM)预测模型。建模结果表明,BPNN 模型的预测决定系数达0.8237,验证决定系数达0.7367;FLSSVM模型的预测决定系数达0.8625,验证决定系数达0.8003。BP神经网络以及FLSSVM预测模型的精度都较高,可以用来评估作物产量,为精细农业变量处方管理提供理论与技术支持。%In order to realize precision management of winter wheat, two prediction models of winter wheat yield based on soil parameters were proposed and compared. The field tests were carried out in 2008 and 2009. The variety of the experimental winter wheat was Jingdong 12, and the test area was divided into 60 zones with 5m×5m grids. The sampling point was put in the middle of the zone, and the depth of the sampling point was 5cm. Soil EC was measured by a DDB-307 EC meter, and the winter wheat yield data were provided by a CASE2366 grain harvester with GPS receiver. Gray theory were used to analyze the gray relation between soil EC value and each of other soil parameters, total nitrogen content, K+、NO3-and pH of soil. Results showed that there were high gray relation between soil EC and total nitrogen content, K+, pH of soil. Since soil organic horizons had high correlation with soil negative charge

  2. QCD-inspired determination of NJL model parameters

    CERN Document Server

    Springer, Paul; Rechenberger, Stefan; Rennecke, Fabian

    2016-01-01

    The QCD phase diagram at finite temperature and density has attracted considerable interest over many decades now, not least because of its relevance for a better understanding of heavy-ion collision experiments. Models provide some insight into the QCD phase structure but usually rely on various parameters. Based on renormalization group arguments, we discuss how the parameters of QCD low-energy models can be determined from the fundamental theory of the strong interaction. We particularly focus on a determination of the temperature dependence of these parameters in this work and comment on the effect of a finite quark chemical potential. We present first results and argue that our findings can be used to improve the predictive power of future model calculations.

  3. Improvement of Continuous Hydrologic Models and HMS SMA Parameters Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezaeian Zadeh, Mehdi; Zia Hosseinipour, E.; Abghari, Hirad; Nikian, Ashkan; Shaeri Karimi, Sara; Moradzadeh Azar, Foad

    2010-05-01

    Hydrological models can help us to predict stream flows and associated runoff volumes of rainfall events within a watershed. There are many different reasons why we need to model the rainfall-runoff processes of for a watershed. However, the main reason is the limitation of hydrological measurement techniques and the costs of data collection at a fine scale. Generally, we are not able to measure all that we would like to know about a given hydrological systems. This is very particularly the case for ungauged catchments. Since the ultimate aim of prediction using models is to improve decision-making about a hydrological problem, therefore, having a robust and efficient modeling tool becomes an important factor. Among several hydrologic modeling approaches, continuous simulation has the best predictions because it can model dry and wet conditions during a long-term period. Continuous hydrologic models, unlike event based models, account for a watershed's soil moisture balance over a long-term period and are suitable for simulating daily, monthly, and seasonal streamflows. In this paper, we describe a soil moisture accounting (SMA) algorithm added to the hydrologic modeling system (HEC-HMS) computer program. As is well known in the hydrologic modeling community one of the ways for improving a model utility is the reduction of input parameters. The enhanced model developed in this study is applied to Khosrow Shirin Watershed, located in the north-west part of Fars Province in Iran, a data limited watershed. The HMS SMA algorithm divides the potential path of rainfall onto a watershed into five zones. The results showed that the output of HMS SMA is insensitive with the variation of many parameters such as soil storage and soil percolation rate. The study's objective is to remove insensitive parameters from the model input using Multi-objective sensitivity analysis. Keywords: Continuous Hydrologic Modeling, HMS SMA, Multi-objective sensitivity analysis, SMA Parameters

  4. Parameter Identifiability of Ship Manoeuvring Modeling Using System Identification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weilin Luo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available To improve the feasibility of system identification in the prediction of ship manoeuvrability, several measures are presented to deal with the parameter identifiability in the parametric modeling of ship manoeuvring motion based on system identification. Drift of nonlinear hydrodynamic coefficients is explained from the point of view of regression analysis. To diminish the multicollinearity in a complicated manoeuvring model, difference method and additional signal method are employed to reconstruct the samples. Moreover, the structure of manoeuvring model is simplified based on correlation analysis. Manoeuvring simulation is performed to demonstrate the validity of the measures proposed.

  5. Uncertainty Quantification for Optical Model Parameters

    CERN Document Server

    Lovell, A E; Sarich, J; Wild, S M

    2016-01-01

    Although uncertainty quantification has been making its way into nuclear theory, these methods have yet to be explored in the context of reaction theory. For example, it is well known that different parameterizations of the optical potential can result in different cross sections, but these differences have not been systematically studied and quantified. The purpose of this work is to investigate the uncertainties in nuclear reactions that result from fitting a given model to elastic-scattering data, as well as to study how these uncertainties propagate to the inelastic and transfer channels. We use statistical methods to determine a best fit and create corresponding 95\\% confidence bands. A simple model of the process is fit to elastic-scattering data and used to predict either inelastic or transfer cross sections. In this initial work, we assume that our model is correct, and the only uncertainties come from the variation of the fit parameters. We study a number of reactions involving neutron and deuteron p...

  6. Numerical modeling of partial discharges parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kartalović Nenad M.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent testing of the partial discharges or the use for the diagnosis of insulation condition of high voltage generators, transformers, cables and high voltage equipment develops rapidly. It is a result of the development of electronics, as well as, the development of knowledge about the processes of partial discharges. The aim of this paper is to contribute the better understanding of this phenomenon of partial discharges by consideration of the relevant physical processes in isolation materials and isolation systems. Prebreakdown considers specific processes, and development processes at the local level and their impact on specific isolation material. This approach to the phenomenon of partial discharges needed to allow better take into account relevant discharge parameters as well as better numerical model of partial discharges.

  7. Simple parameter estimation for complex models — Testing evolutionary techniques on 3-dimensional biogeochemical ocean models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattern, Jann Paul; Edwards, Christopher A.

    2017-01-01

    Parameter estimation is an important part of numerical modeling and often required when a coupled physical-biogeochemical ocean model is first deployed. However, 3-dimensional ocean model simulations are computationally expensive and models typically contain upwards of 10 parameters suitable for estimation. Hence, manual parameter tuning can be lengthy and cumbersome. Here, we present four easy to implement and flexible parameter estimation techniques and apply them to two 3-dimensional biogeochemical models of different complexities. Based on a Monte Carlo experiment, we first develop a cost function measuring the model-observation misfit based on multiple data types. The parameter estimation techniques are then applied and yield a substantial cost reduction over ∼ 100 simulations. Based on the outcome of multiple replicate experiments, they perform on average better than random, uninformed parameter search but performance declines when more than 40 parameters are estimated together. Our results emphasize the complex cost function structure for biogeochemical parameters and highlight dependencies between different parameters as well as different cost function formulations.

  8. Parameter Estimation of Hammerstein Model Based on Data in Wavelet Domain%基于小波域数据的Hammerstein模型参数估计

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李振强

    2012-01-01

    针对非线性离散Hammerstein模型的输出存在随机噪声情况下,提出直接利用小波域的输入输出数据,估计出该模型的参数的方法.最小二乘法是时域参数估计的主要方法,随着对小波理论的深入研究,它在信号处理方面起着重要的作用.信号经过小波变换后,得到具有时频特征的小波域的信号,提高了信号的信噪比,去噪结果比时域和频域更有效.通过小波最小二乘法估计出模型的参数,与时域最小二乘法的估计参数相比较,仿真结果表明波域方法是可行的,有效的.%For the discrete nonlinear Hammerstein model with the noise corrupted output data, a method was proposed to estimate the parameters of the model with the input - output data in wavelet domain directly. The least squared ( LS) method is an important method for parameter estimation in time domain, with the developing of wavelet theory, it plays an important role in signal processing. By means of wavelet transform, the signal has both characteristics of time and frequency. It became a signal in wavelet domain, and increased the ratio of signal to noise. The de-noising result is more effective than in time domain and in frequency domain. The parameters of model were estimated by the wavelet least squared method. Compared with the least squared method in time domain, the proposed method is feasible and effective.

  9. Modelling of intermittent microwave convective drying: parameter sensitivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Zhijun

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The reliability of the predictions of a mathematical model is a prerequisite to its utilization. A multiphase porous media model of intermittent microwave convective drying is developed based on the literature. The model considers the liquid water, gas and solid matrix inside of food. The model is simulated by COMSOL software. Its sensitivity parameter is analysed by changing the parameter values by ±20%, with the exception of several parameters. The sensitivity analysis of the process of the microwave power level shows that each parameter: ambient temperature, effective gas diffusivity, and evaporation rate constant, has significant effects on the process. However, the surface mass, heat transfer coefficient, relative and intrinsic permeability of the gas, and capillary diffusivity of water do not have a considerable effect. The evaporation rate constant has minimal parameter sensitivity with a ±20% value change, until it is changed 10-fold. In all results, the temperature and vapour pressure curves show the same trends as the moisture content curve. However, the water saturation at the medium surface and in the centre show different results. Vapour transfer is the major mass transfer phenomenon that affects the drying process.

  10. Modelling of intermittent microwave convective drying: parameter sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhijun; Qin, Wenchao; Shi, Bin; Gao, Jingxin; Zhang, Shiwei

    2017-06-01

    The reliability of the predictions of a mathematical model is a prerequisite to its utilization. A multiphase porous media model of intermittent microwave convective drying is developed based on the literature. The model considers the liquid water, gas and solid matrix inside of food. The model is simulated by COMSOL software. Its sensitivity parameter is analysed by changing the parameter values by ±20%, with the exception of several parameters. The sensitivity analysis of the process of the microwave power level shows that each parameter: ambient temperature, effective gas diffusivity, and evaporation rate constant, has significant effects on the process. However, the surface mass, heat transfer coefficient, relative and intrinsic permeability of the gas, and capillary diffusivity of water do not have a considerable effect. The evaporation rate constant has minimal parameter sensitivity with a ±20% value change, until it is changed 10-fold. In all results, the temperature and vapour pressure curves show the same trends as the moisture content curve. However, the water saturation at the medium surface and in the centre show different results. Vapour transfer is the major mass transfer phenomenon that affects the drying process.

  11. Recursive modular modelling methodology for lumped-parameter dynamic systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orsino, Renato Maia Matarazzo

    2017-08-01

    This paper proposes a novel approach to the modelling of lumped-parameter dynamic systems, based on representing them by hierarchies of mathematical models of increasing complexity instead of a single (complex) model. Exploring the multilevel modularity that these systems typically exhibit, a general recursive modelling methodology is proposed, in order to conciliate the use of the already existing modelling techniques. The general algorithm is based on a fundamental theorem that states the conditions for computing projection operators recursively. Three procedures for these computations are discussed: orthonormalization, use of orthogonal complements and use of generalized inverses. The novel methodology is also applied for the development of a recursive algorithm based on the Udwadia-Kalaba equation, which proves to be identical to the one of a Kalman filter for estimating the state of a static process, given a sequence of noiseless measurements representing the constraints that must be satisfied by the system.

  12. Prediction of mortality rates using a model with stochastic parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Chon Sern; Pooi, Ah Hin

    2016-10-01

    Prediction of future mortality rates is crucial to insurance companies because they face longevity risks while providing retirement benefits to a population whose life expectancy is increasing. In the past literature, a time series model based on multivariate power-normal distribution has been applied on mortality data from the United States for the years 1933 till 2000 to forecast the future mortality rates for the years 2001 till 2010. In this paper, a more dynamic approach based on the multivariate time series will be proposed where the model uses stochastic parameters that vary with time. The resulting prediction intervals obtained using the model with stochastic parameters perform better because apart from having good ability in covering the observed future mortality rates, they also tend to have distinctly shorter interval lengths.

  13. 基于AutoCAD VBA实体模型参数化设计%Parameters designing for solid model based on AutoCAD VBA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王志刚; 吴术路

    2011-01-01

    AutoCAD were re-developed with VB language.parameter calculation for standard straight spur gear was presented and window-based designing methods were also provided.%给出了标准直齿圆柱齿轮相关参数计算,利用VB语言对AutoCAD软件进行二次开发的方法,建立了窗体驱动标准直齿圆柱齿轮参数化设计实体的生成经过。

  14. Model Identification of Linear Parameter Varying Aircraft Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Fujimore, Atsushi; Ljung, Lennart

    2007-01-01

    This article presents a parameter estimation of continuous-time polytopic models for a linear parameter varying (LPV) system. The prediction error method of linear time invariant (LTI) models is modified for polytopic models. The modified prediction error method is applied to an LPV aircraft system whose varying parameter is the flight velocity and model parameters are the stability and control derivatives (SCDs). In an identification simulation, the polytopic model is more suitable for expre...

  15. Prediction of interest rate using CKLS model with stochastic parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ying, Khor Chia [Faculty of Computing and Informatics, Multimedia University, Jalan Multimedia, 63100 Cyberjaya, Selangor (Malaysia); Hin, Pooi Ah [Sunway University Business School, No. 5, Jalan Universiti, Bandar Sunway, 47500 Subang Jaya, Selangor (Malaysia)

    2014-06-19

    The Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff and Sanders (CKLS) model is a popular one-factor model for describing the spot interest rates. In this paper, the four parameters in the CKLS model are regarded as stochastic. The parameter vector φ{sup (j)} of four parameters at the (J+n)-th time point is estimated by the j-th window which is defined as the set consisting of the observed interest rates at the j′-th time point where j≤j′≤j+n. To model the variation of φ{sup (j)}, we assume that φ{sup (j)} depends on φ{sup (j−m)}, φ{sup (j−m+1)},…, φ{sup (j−1)} and the interest rate r{sub j+n} at the (j+n)-th time point via a four-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a [4(m+1)+1]-dimensional power-normal distribution. Treating the (j+n)-th time point as the present time point, we find a prediction interval for the future value r{sub j+n+1} of the interest rate at the next time point when the value r{sub j+n} of the interest rate is given. From the above four-dimensional conditional distribution, we also find a prediction interval for the future interest rate r{sub j+n+d} at the next d-th (d≥2) time point. The prediction intervals based on the CKLS model with stochastic parameters are found to have better ability of covering the observed future interest rates when compared with those based on the model with fixed parameters.

  16. Support vector classification algorithm based on variable parameter linear programming

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiao Jianhua; Lin Jian

    2007-01-01

    To solve the problems of SVM in dealing with large sample size and asymmetric distributed samples, a support vector classification algorithm based on variable parameter linear programming is proposed.In the proposed algorithm, linear programming is employed to solve the optimization problem of classification to decrease the computation time and to reduce its complexity when compared with the original model.The adjusted punishment parameter greatly reduced the classification error resulting from asymmetric distributed samples and the detailed procedure of the proposed algorithm is given.An experiment is conducted to verify whether the proposed algorithm is suitable for asymmetric distributed samples.

  17. SPOTting model parameters using a ready-made Python package

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houska, Tobias; Kraft, Philipp; Breuer, Lutz

    2015-04-01

    optimization methods. Here we see simple algorithms like the MCMC struggling to find the global optimum of the function, while algorithms like SCE-UA and DE-MCZ show their strengths. Thirdly, we apply an uncertainty analysis of a one-dimensional physically based hydrological model build with the Catchment Modelling Framework (CMF). The model is driven by meteorological and groundwater data from a Free Air Carbon Enrichment (FACE) experiment in Linden (Hesse, Germany). Simulation results are evaluated with measured soil moisture data. We search for optimal parameter sets of the van Genuchten-Mualem function and find different equally optimal solutions with some of the algorithms. The case studies reveal that the implemented SPOT methods work sufficiently well. They further show the benefit of having one tool at hand that includes a number of parameter search methods, likelihood functions and a priori parameter distributions within one platform independent package.

  18. Determining Stand Parameters from Uas-Based Point Clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yilmaz, V.; Serifoglu, C.; Gungor, O.

    2016-06-01

    In Turkey, forest management plans are produced by terrestrial surveying techniques for 10 or 20 year periods, which can be considered quite long to maintain the sustainability of forests. For a successful forest management plan, it is necessary to collect accurate information about the stand parameters and store them in dynamic and robust databases. The position, number, height and closure of trees are among the most important stand parameters required for a forest management plan. Determining the position of each single tree is challenging in such an area consisting of too many interlocking trees. Hence, in this study, an object-based tree detection methodology has been developed in MATLAB programming language to determine the position of each tree top in a highly closed area. The developed algorithm uses the Canopy Height Model (CHM), which is computed from the Digital Terrain Model (DTM) and Digital Surface Model (DSM) generated by using the point cloud extracted from the images taken from a UAS (Unmanned Aerial System). The heights of trees have been determined by using the CHM. The closure of the trees has been determined with the written MATLAB script. The results show that the developed tree detection methodology detected more than 70% of the trees successfully. It can also be concluded that the stand parameters may be determined by using the UAS-based point clouds depending on the characteristics of the study area. In addition, determination of the stand parameters by using point clouds reduces the time needed to produce forest management plans.

  19. Reduced parameter model on trajectory tracking data with applications

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王正明; 朱炬波

    1999-01-01

    The data fusion in tracking the same trajectory by multi-measurernent unit (MMU) is considered. Firstly, the reduced parameter model (RPM) of trajectory parameter (TP), system error and random error are presented,and then the RPM on trajectory tracking data (TTD) is obtained, a weighted method on measuring elements (ME) is studied and criteria on selection of ME based on residual and accuracy estimation are put forward. According to RPM,the problem about selection of ME and self-calibration of TTD is thoroughly investigated. The method improves data accuracy in trajectory tracking obviously and gives accuracy evaluation of trajectory tracking system simultaneously.

  20. Parameter Estimation of the Extended Vasiček Model

    OpenAIRE

    Rujivan, Sanae

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, an estimate of the drift and diffusion parameters of the extended Vasiček model is presented. The estimate is based on the method of maximum likelihood. We derive a closed-form expansion for the transition (probability) density of the extended Vasiček process and use the expansion to construct an approximate log-likelihood function of a discretely sampled data of the process. Approximate maximum likelihood estimators (AMLEs) of the parameters are obtained by maximizing the appr...

  1. Iterative integral parameter identification of a respiratory mechanics model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schranz Christoph

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Patient-specific respiratory mechanics models can support the evaluation of optimal lung protective ventilator settings during ventilation therapy. Clinical application requires that the individual’s model parameter values must be identified with information available at the bedside. Multiple linear regression or gradient-based parameter identification methods are highly sensitive to noise and initial parameter estimates. Thus, they are difficult to apply at the bedside to support therapeutic decisions. Methods An iterative integral parameter identification method is applied to a second order respiratory mechanics model. The method is compared to the commonly used regression methods and error-mapping approaches using simulated and clinical data. The clinical potential of the method was evaluated on data from 13 Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS patients. Results The iterative integral method converged to error minima 350 times faster than the Simplex Search Method using simulation data sets and 50 times faster using clinical data sets. Established regression methods reported erroneous results due to sensitivity to noise. In contrast, the iterative integral method was effective independent of initial parameter estimations, and converged successfully in each case tested. Conclusion These investigations reveal that the iterative integral method is beneficial with respect to computing time, operator independence and robustness, and thus applicable at the bedside for this clinical application.

  2. Relating Doses of Contrast Agent Administered to TIC and Semi-Quantitative Parameters on DCE-MRI: Based on a Murine Breast Tumor Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Menglin Wu

    Full Text Available To explore the changes in the time-signal intensity curve(TIC type and semi-quantitative parameters of dynamic contrast-enhanced(DCEimaging in relation to variations in the contrast agent(CA dosage in the Walker 256 murine breast tumor model, and to determine the appropriate parameters for the evaluation ofneoadjuvantchemotherapy(NACresponse.Walker 256 breast tumor models were established in 21 rats, which were randomly divided into three groups of7rats each. Routine scanning and DCE-magnetic resonance imaging (MRI of the rats were performed using a 7T MR scanner. The three groups of rats were administered different dosages of the CA0.2mmol/kg, 0.3mmol/kg, and 0.5mmol/kg, respectively; and the corresponding TICs the semi-quantitative parameters were calculated and compared among the three groups.The TICs were not influenced by the CA dosage and presented a washout pattern in all of the tumors evaluated and weren't influenced by the CA dose. The values of the initial enhancement percentage(Efirst, initial enhancement velocity(Vfirst, maximum signal(Smax, maximum enhancement percentage(Emax, washout percentage(Ewash, and signal enhancement ratio(SER showed statistically significant differences among the three groups (F = 16.952, p = 0.001; F = 69.483, p<0.001; F = 54.838, p<0.001; F = 12.510, p = 0.003; F = 5.248, p = 0.031; F = 9.733, p = 0.006, respectively. However, the values of the time to peak(Tpeak, maximum enhancement velocity(Vmax, and washout velocity(Vwashdid not differ significantly among the three dosage groups (F = 0.065, p = 0.937; F = 1.505, p = 0.273; χ2 = 1.423, p = 0.319, respectively; the washout slope(Slopewash, too, was uninfluenced by the dosage(F = 1.654, p = 0.244.The CA dosage didn't affect the TIC type, Tpeak, Vmax, Vwash or Slopewash. These dose-independent parameters as well as the TIC type might be more useful for monitoring the NAC response because they allow the comparisons of the DCE data obtained using different

  3. Identifiability of altimetry-based rating curve parameters in function of river morphological parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paris, Adrien; André Garambois, Pierre; Calmant, Stéphane; Paiva, Rodrigo; Walter, Collischonn; Santos da Silva, Joecila; Medeiros Moreira, Daniel; Bonnet, Marie-Paule; Seyler, Frédérique; Monnier, Jérôme

    2016-04-01

    Estimating river discharge for ungauged river reaches from satellite measurements is not straightforward given the nonlinearity of flow behavior with respect to measurable and non measurable hydraulic parameters. As a matter of facts, current satellite datasets do not give access to key parameters such as river bed topography and roughness. A unique set of almost one thousand altimetry-based rating curves was built by fit of ENVISAT and Jason-2 water stages with discharges obtained from the MGB-IPH rainfall-runoff model in the Amazon basin. These rated discharges were successfully validated towards simulated discharges (Ens = 0.70) and in-situ discharges (Ens = 0.71) and are not mission-dependent. The rating curve writes Q = a(Z-Z0)b*sqrt(S), with Z the water surface elevation and S its slope gained from satellite altimetry, a and b power law coefficient and exponent and Z0 the river bed elevation such as Q(Z0) = 0. For several river reaches in the Amazon basin where ADCP measurements are available, the Z0 values are fairly well validated with a relative error lower than 10%. The present contribution aims at relating the identifiability and the physical meaning of a, b and Z0given various hydraulic and geomorphologic conditions. Synthetic river bathymetries sampling a wide range of rivers and inflow discharges are used to perform twin experiments. A shallow water model is run for generating synthetic satellite observations, and then rating curve parameters are determined for each river section thanks to a MCMC algorithm. Thanks to twin experiments, it is shown that rating curve formulation with water surface slope, i.e. closer from Manning equation form, improves parameter identifiability. The compensation between parameters is limited, especially for reaches with little water surface variability. Rating curve parameters are analyzed for riffle and pools for small to large rivers, different river slopes and cross section shapes. It is shown that the river bed

  4. Do land parameters matter in large-scale hydrological modelling?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2013-04-01

    parameters in ever greater detail. While improved physically-based models are under development, the proposed statistical model can be used to produce full space-time estimates of monthly runoff in Europe, contributing to practical aspects of the discipline including water resources monitoring and seasonal forecasting.

  5. Development of an Agent-Based Model (ABM) to Simulate the Immune System and Integration of a Regression Method to Estimate the Key ABM Parameters by Fitting the Experimental Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Xuming; Chen, Jinghang; Miao, Hongyu; Li, Tingting; Zhang, Le

    2015-01-01

    Agent-based models (ABM) and differential equations (DE) are two commonly used methods for immune system simulation. However, it is difficult for ABM to estimate key parameters of the model by incorporating experimental data, whereas the differential equation model is incapable of describing the complicated immune system in detail. To overcome these problems, we developed an integrated ABM regression model (IABMR). It can combine the advantages of ABM and DE by employing ABM to mimic the multi-scale immune system with various phenotypes and types of cells as well as using the input and output of ABM to build up the Loess regression for key parameter estimation. Next, we employed the greedy algorithm to estimate the key parameters of the ABM with respect to the same experimental data set and used ABM to describe a 3D immune system similar to previous studies that employed the DE model. These results indicate that IABMR not only has the potential to simulate the immune system at various scales, phenotypes and cell types, but can also accurately infer the key parameters like DE model. Therefore, this study innovatively developed a complex system development mechanism that could simulate the complicated immune system in detail like ABM and validate the reliability and efficiency of model like DE by fitting the experimental data.

  6. 基于二阶泛模型的无模型自适应控制及参数整定%Model free adaptive control and parameter tuning based on second order universal model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王晶; 纪超; 曹柳林; 靳其兵

    2012-01-01

    首先充分利用无模型自适应控制(MFAC)边建模、边控制的特点,推导基于二阶“泛模型”的改进无模型自适应控制方法,并推导伪偏导数及控制律的迭代公式,与基于一阶泛模型的MFAC方法相比,改进策略可以使每次迭代的泛模型更加准确,从而进一步提高控制精度.接着,针对改进MFAC的参数整定问题,提出基于优化技术的控制器参数整定方法,运用辨识出的近似模型针对不同的目标函数进行优化,使得其实用范围更加广泛.通过大量仿真实验对比可以看出:经过Jeu-tr型性能指标进行参数优化的改进MFAC控制器动态响应最好,且优化迭代次数较少.因此,控制效果得到显著改善.%An improved model free adaptive control (MFAC) based on second-order universal model was derived, which can greatly improve the model and control precision. The control law and pseudo-partial-derivative were iteratively derived. For the parameter tuning of improved MFAC, a parameter optimization algorithm was presented. Using the approximate identified model, the optimal controller parameters were obtained for several different objective functions, which had wide scope of application. The Jeu-tr performance index makes the system possess better dynamic response, and less iteration times. The simulation results show the effectiveness of improved MFAC control strategy and parameter tuning method.

  7. 一种道路参数化快速建模技术与应用%Road Quick Modeling and Application Based on Parameter Design

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王阳生; 何兴富

    2014-01-01

    介绍一种在高精度三维地形模型的基础上对道路设计方案快速集成和实时模拟的方法。基于道路设计领域知识,设计道路空间-语义一体化的信息模型,实现道路设计成果的快速整合;基于参数化设计技术和断面拉伸建模技术实现道路三维模型的快速构建。在此基础上开展路基土石方计算、征地统计和辅助规划管理等工作,为道路方案的可视化展现、辅助分析决策和提升设计效率、加强方案科学性等提供了一种技术手段。%This paper introduces a method of rapid integration and real-time modeling for road design project based on high accuracy three-dimensional terrain model ,with constructing a space-semantic integration road information mod-eling based on knowledge of the field of road design to achieve rapid integration of road design project ,and creating road model rapidly by section stretching modeling based on parametric design techniques .Based on 3D road model,roadbed earthwork calculations ,statistical land acquisition and planning management were conducted .This paper provides a new technique for visualizing of road program ,assisting decision-making and improving road design efficiency and more scien-tific.

  8. Computerized Adaptive Testing: A Comparison of the Nominal Response Model and the Three Parameter Logistic Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeAyala, R. J.; Koch, William R.

    A nominal response model-based computerized adaptive testing procedure (nominal CAT) was implemented using simulated data. Ability estimates from the nominal CAT were compared to those from a CAT based upon the three-parameter logistic model (3PL CAT). Furthermore, estimates from both CAT procedures were compared with the known true abilities used…

  9. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Wasiolek

    2006-06-05

    This analysis is one of the technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), referred to in this report as the biosphere model. ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'' is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the biosphere model is presented in Figure 1-1 (based on BSC 2006 [DIRS 176938]). This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This analysis report defines and justifies values of atmospheric mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of the biosphere model to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception. This

  10. Modeling and simulation of HTS cables for scattering parameter analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bang, Su Sik; Lee, Geon Seok; Kwon, Gu-Young; Lee, Yeong Ho; Chang, Seung Jin; Lee, Chun-Kwon; Sohn, Songho; Park, Kijun; Shin, Yong-June

    2016-11-01

    Most of modeling and simulation of high temperature superconducting (HTS) cables are inadequate for high frequency analysis since focus of the simulation's frequency is fundamental frequency of the power grid, which does not reflect transient characteristic. However, high frequency analysis is essential process to research the HTS cables transient for protection and diagnosis of the HTS cables. Thus, this paper proposes a new approach for modeling and simulation of HTS cables to derive the scattering parameter (S-parameter), an effective high frequency analysis, for transient wave propagation characteristics in high frequency range. The parameters sweeping method is used to validate the simulation results to the measured data given by a network analyzer (NA). This paper also presents the effects of the cable-to-NA connector in order to minimize the error between the simulated and the measured data under ambient and superconductive conditions. Based on the proposed modeling and simulation technique, S-parameters of long-distance HTS cables can be accurately derived in wide range of frequency. The results of proposed modeling and simulation can yield the characteristics of the HTS cables and will contribute to analyze the HTS cables.

  11. Modelling Biophysical Parameters of Maize Using Landsat 8 Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahms, Thorsten; Seissiger, Sylvia; Conrad, Christopher; Borg, Erik

    2016-06-01

    Open and free access to multi-frequent high-resolution data (e.g. Sentinel - 2) will fortify agricultural applications based on satellite data. The temporal and spatial resolution of these remote sensing datasets directly affects the applicability of remote sensing methods, for instance a robust retrieving of biophysical parameters over the entire growing season with very high geometric resolution. In this study we use machine learning methods to predict biophysical parameters, namely the fraction of absorbed photosynthetic radiation (FPAR), the leaf area index (LAI) and the chlorophyll content, from high resolution remote sensing. 30 Landsat 8 OLI scenes were available in our study region in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Germany. In-situ data were weekly to bi-weekly collected on 18 maize plots throughout the summer season 2015. The study aims at an optimized prediction of biophysical parameters and the identification of the best explaining spectral bands and vegetation indices. For this purpose, we used the entire in-situ dataset from 24.03.2015 to 15.10.2015. Random forest and conditional inference forests were used because of their explicit strong exploratory and predictive character. Variable importance measures allowed for analysing the relation between the biophysical parameters with respect to the spectral response, and the performance of the two approaches over the plant stock evolvement. Classical random forest regression outreached the performance of conditional inference forests, in particular when modelling the biophysical parameters over the entire growing period. For example, modelling biophysical parameters of maize for the entire vegetation period using random forests yielded: FPAR: R² = 0.85; RMSE = 0.11; LAI: R² = 0.64; RMSE = 0.9 and chlorophyll content (SPAD): R² = 0.80; RMSE=4.9. Our results demonstrate the great potential in using machine-learning methods for the interpretation of long-term multi-frequent remote sensing datasets to model

  12. Transfer function modeling of damping mechanisms in distributed parameter models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slater, J. C.; Inman, D. J.

    1994-01-01

    This work formulates a method for the modeling of material damping characteristics in distributed parameter models which may be easily applied to models such as rod, plate, and beam equations. The general linear boundary value vibration equation is modified to incorporate hysteresis effects represented by complex stiffness using the transfer function approach proposed by Golla and Hughes. The governing characteristic equations are decoupled through separation of variables yielding solutions similar to those of undamped classical theory, allowing solution of the steady state as well as transient response. Example problems and solutions are provided demonstrating the similarity of the solutions to those of the classical theories and transient responses of nonviscous systems.

  13. Parameter identification and global sensitivity analysis of Xinanjiang model using meta-modeling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-meng SONG

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Parameter identification, model calibration, and uncertainty quantification are important steps in the model-building process, and are necessary for obtaining credible results and valuable information. Sensitivity analysis of hydrological model is a key step in model uncertainty quantification, which can identify the dominant parameters, reduce the model calibration uncertainty, and enhance the model optimization efficiency. There are, however, some shortcomings in classical approaches, including the long duration of time and high computation cost required to quantitatively assess the sensitivity of a multiple-parameter hydrological model. For this reason, a two-step statistical evaluation framework using global techniques is presented. It is based on (1 a screening method (Morris for qualitative ranking of parameters, and (2 a variance-based method integrated with a meta-model for quantitative sensitivity analysis, i.e., the Sobol method integrated with the response surface model (RSMSobol. First, the Morris screening method was used to qualitatively identify the parameters’ sensitivity, and then ten parameters were selected to quantify the sensitivity indices. Subsequently, the RSMSobol method was used to quantify the sensitivity, i.e., the first-order and total sensitivity indices based on the response surface model (RSM were calculated. The RSMSobol method can not only quantify the sensitivity, but also reduce the computational cost, with good accuracy compared to the classical approaches. This approach will be effective and reliable in the global sensitivity analysis of a complex large-scale distributed hydrological model.

  14. The oblique S parameter in higgsless electroweak models

    CERN Document Server

    Rosell, Ignasi

    2012-01-01

    We present a one-loop calculation of the oblique S parameter within Higgsless models of electroweak symmetry breaking. We have used a general effective Lagrangian with at most two derivatives, implementing the chiral symmetry breaking SU(2)_L x SU(2)_R -> SU(2)_{L+R} with Goldstones, gauge bosons and one multiplet of vector and axial-vector resonances. The estimation is based on the short-distance constraints and the dispersive approach proposed by Peskin and Takeuchi.

  15. Enhancing debris flow modeling parameters integrating Bayesian networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graf, C.; Stoffel, M.; Grêt-Regamey, A.

    2009-04-01

    Applied debris-flow modeling requires suitably constraint input parameter sets. Depending on the used model, there is a series of parameters to define before running the model. Normally, the data base describing the event, the initiation conditions, the flow behavior, the deposition process and mainly the potential range of possible debris flow events in a certain torrent is limited. There are only some scarce places in the world, where we fortunately can find valuable data sets describing event history of debris flow channels delivering information on spatial and temporal distribution of former flow paths and deposition zones. Tree-ring records in combination with detailed geomorphic mapping for instance provide such data sets over a long time span. Considering the significant loss potential associated with debris-flow disasters, it is crucial that decisions made in regard to hazard mitigation are based on a consistent assessment of the risks. This in turn necessitates a proper assessment of the uncertainties involved in the modeling of the debris-flow frequencies and intensities, the possible run out extent, as well as the estimations of the damage potential. In this study, we link a Bayesian network to a Geographic Information System in order to assess debris-flow risk. We identify the major sources of uncertainty and show the potential of Bayesian inference techniques to improve the debris-flow model. We model the flow paths and deposition zones of a highly active debris-flow channel in the Swiss Alps using the numerical 2-D model RAMMS. Because uncertainties in run-out areas cause large changes in risk estimations, we use the data of flow path and deposition zone information of reconstructed debris-flow events derived from dendrogeomorphological analysis covering more than 400 years to update the input parameters of the RAMMS model. The probabilistic model, which consistently incorporates this available information, can serve as a basis for spatial risk

  16. Comparison of Parameter Estimation Methods for Transformer Weibull Lifetime Modelling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU Dan; LI Chengrong; WANG Zhongdong

    2013-01-01

    Two-parameter Weibull distribution is the most widely adopted lifetime model for power transformers.An appropriate parameter estimation method is essential to guarantee the accuracy of a derived Weibull lifetime model.Six popular parameter estimation methods (i.e.the maximum likelihood estimation method,two median rank regression methods including the one regressing X on Y and the other one regressing Y on X,the Kaplan-Meier method,the method based on cumulative hazard plot,and the Li's method) are reviewed and compared in order to find the optimal one that suits transformer's Weibull lifetime modelling.The comparison took several different scenarios into consideration:10 000 sets of lifetime data,each of which had a sampling size of 40 ~ 1 000 and a censoring rate of 90%,were obtained by Monte-Carlo simulations for each scienario.Scale and shape parameters of Weibull distribution estimated by the six methods,as well as their mean value,median value and 90% confidence band are obtained.The cross comparison of these results reveals that,among the six methods,the maximum likelihood method is the best one,since it could provide the most accurate Weibull parameters,i.e.parameters having the smallest bias in both mean and median values,as well as the shortest length of the 90% confidence band.The maximum likelihood method is therefore recommended to be used over the other methods in transformer Weibull lifetime modelling.

  17. Modeling the outflow of liquid with initial supercritical parameters using the relaxation model for condensation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lezhnin Sergey

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The two-temperature model of the outflow from a vessel with initial supercritical parameters of medium has been realized. The model uses thermodynamic non-equilibrium relaxation approach to describe phase transitions. Based on a new asymptotic model for computing the relaxation time, the outflow of water with supercritical initial pressure and super- and subcritical temperatures has been calculated.

  18. On the modeling of internal parameters in hyperelastic biological materials

    CERN Document Server

    Giantesio, Giulia

    2016-01-01

    This paper concerns the behavior of hyperelastic energies depending on an internal parameter. First, the situation in which the internal parameter is a function of the gradient of the deformation is presented. Second, two models where the parameter describes the activation of skeletal muscle tissue are analyzed. In those models, the activation parameter depends on the strain and it is important to consider the derivative of the parameter with respect to the strain in order to capture the proper behavior of the stress.

  19. Evaluation of some infiltration models and hydraulic parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haghighi, F.; Gorji, M.; Shorafa, M.; Sarmadian, F.; Mohammadi, M. H.

    2010-07-01

    The evaluation of infiltration characteristics and some parameters of infiltration models such as sorptivity and final steady infiltration rate in soils are important in agriculture. The aim of this study was to evaluate some of the most common models used to estimate final soil infiltration rate. The equality of final infiltration rate with saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) was also tested. Moreover, values of the estimated sorptivity from the Philips model were compared to estimates by selected pedotransfer functions (PTFs). The infiltration experiments used the doublering method on soils with two different land uses in the Taleghan watershed of Tehran province, Iran, from September to October, 2007. The infiltration models of Kostiakov-Lewis, Philip two-term and Horton were fitted to observed infiltration data. Some parameters of the models and the coefficient of determination goodness of fit were estimated using MATLAB software. The results showed that, based on comparing measured and model-estimated infiltration rate using root mean squared error (RMSE), Hortons model gave the best prediction of final infiltration rate in the experimental area. Laboratory measured Ks values gave significant differences and higher values than estimated final infiltration rates from the selected models. The estimated final infiltration rate was not equal to laboratory measured Ks values in the study area. Moreover, the estimated sorptivity factor by Philips model was significantly different to those estimated by selected PTFs. It is suggested that the applicability of PTFs is limited to specific, similar conditions. (Author) 37 refs.

  20. Determining extreme parameter correlation in ground water models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hill, Mary Cole; Østerby, Ole

    2003-01-01

    In ground water flow system models with hydraulic-head observations but without significant imposed or observed flows, extreme parameter correlation generally exists. As a result, hydraulic conductivity and recharge parameters cannot be uniquely estimated. In complicated problems, such correlation...... correlation coefficients, but it required sensitivities that were one to two significant digits less accurate than those that required using parameter correlation coefficients; and (3) both the SVD and parameter correlation coefficients identified extremely correlated parameters better when the parameters...

  1. Extended Range Guided Munition Parameter Optimization Based on Genetic Algorithms

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    Many factors influencing range of extended range guided munition (ERGM) are analyzed. The definition domain of the most important three parameters are ascertained by preparatory mathematical simulation, the optimized mathematical model of ERGM maximum range with boundary conditions is created, and parameter optimization based on genetic algorithm (GA) is adopted. In the GA design, three-point crossover is used and the best chromosome is kept so that the convergence speed becomes rapid. Simulation result shows that GA is feasible, the result is good and it can be easy to attain global optimization solution, especially when the objective function is not the convex one for independent variables and it is a multi-parameter problem.

  2. Prediction of Betavoltaic Battery Output Parameters Based on SEM Measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.B. Yakimov

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The approach for the prediction of betavoltaic battery output parameters based on EBIC investigations of semiconductor converters of beta-radiation energy into electric power is presented. Using this approach the parameters of battery based on porous Si are calculated. These parameters are compared with those of battery based on a planar Si p-n junction.

  3. Model comparisons and genetic and environmental parameter ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    arc

    South African Journal of Animal Science 2005, 35 (1) ... Genetic and environmental parameters were estimated for pre- and post-weaning average daily gain ..... and BWT (and medium maternal genetic correlations) indicates that these traits ...

  4. Robust linear parameter varying induction motor control with polytopic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dalila Khamari

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with a robust controller for an induction motor which is represented as a linear parameter varying systems. To do so linear matrix inequality (LMI based approach and robust Lyapunov feedback controller are associated. This new approach is related to the fact that the synthesis of a linear parameter varying (LPV feedback controller for the inner loop take into account rotor resistance and mechanical speed as varying parameter. An LPV flux observer is also synthesized to estimate rotor flux providing reference to cited above regulator. The induction motor is described as a polytopic model because of speed and rotor resistance affine dependence their values can be estimated on line during systems operations. The simulation results are presented to confirm the effectiveness of the proposed approach where robustness stability and high performances have been achieved over the entire operating range of the induction motor.

  5. NEW DOCTORAL DEGREE Parameter estimation problem in the Weibull model

    OpenAIRE

    Marković, Darija

    2009-01-01

    In this dissertation we consider the problem of the existence of best parameters in the Weibull model, one of the most widely used statistical models in reliability theory and life data theory. Particular attention is given to a 3-parameter Weibull model. We have listed some of the many applications of this model. We have described some of the classical methods for estimating parameters of the Weibull model, two graphical methods (Weibull probability plot and hazard plot), and two analyt...

  6. [A study of coordinates transform iterative fitting method to extract bio-impedance model parameters bio-impedance model parameters].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Liming; Yang, Yuxing; Yuan, Shiying

    2006-02-01

    A new algorithm, the coordinates transform iterative optimizing method based on the least square curve fitting model, is presented. This arithmetic is used for extracting the bio-impedance model parameters. It is superior to other methods, for example, its speed of the convergence is quicker, and its calculating precision is higher. The objective to extract the model parameters, such as Ri, Re, Cm and alpha, has been realized rapidly and accurately. With the aim at lowering the power consumption, decreasing the price and improving the price-to-performance ratio, a practical bio-impedance measure system with double CPUs has been built. It can be drawn from the preliminary results that the intracellular resistance Ri increased largely with an increase in working load during sitting, which reflects the ischemic change of lower limbs.

  7. Fundamental M-dwarf parameters from high-resolution spectra using PHOENIX ACES models: I. Parameter accuracy and benchmark stars

    CERN Document Server

    Passegger, Vera Maria; Reiners, Ansgar

    2016-01-01

    M-dwarf stars are the most numerous stars in the Universe; they span a wide range in mass and are in the focus of ongoing and planned exoplanet surveys. To investigate and understand their physical nature, detailed spectral information and accurate stellar models are needed. We use a new synthetic atmosphere model generation and compare model spectra to observations. To test the model accuracy, we compared the models to four benchmark stars with atmospheric parameters for which independent information from interferometric radius measurements is available. We used $\\chi^2$ -based methods to determine parameters from high-resolution spectroscopic observations. Our synthetic spectra are based on the new PHOENIX grid that uses the ACES description for the equation of state. This is a model generation expected to be especially suitable for the low-temperature atmospheres. We identified suitable spectral tracers of atmospheric parameters and determined the uncertainties in $T_{\\rm eff}$, $\\log{g}$, and [Fe/H] resul...

  8. Parameter optimization model in electrical discharge machining process

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Electrical discharge machining (EDM) process, at present is still an experience process, wherein selected parameters are often far from the optimum, and at the same time selecting optimization parameters is costly and time consuming. In this paper,artificial neural network (ANN) and genetic algorithm (GA) are used together to establish the parameter optimization model. An ANN model which adapts Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm has been set up to represent the relationship between material removal rate (MRR) and input parameters, and GA is used to optimize parameters, so that optimization results are obtained. The model is shown to be effective, and MRR is improved using optimized machining parameters.

  9. Weigh in Motion Based on Parameters Optimization

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU Zhi-feng; CAI Ping; CHEN Ri-xing

    2009-01-01

    Dynamic tire forces are the main factor affecting the measurement accuracy of the axle weight of moving vehicle. This paper presents a novel method to reduce the influence of the dynamic tire forces on the weighing accuracy. On the basis of analyzing the characteristic of the dynamic tire forces, the objective optimization equation is constructed. The optimization algorithm is presented to get the optimal estimations of the objective parameters. According to the estimations of the parameters, the dynamic tire forces are separated from the axle weigh signal. The results of simulation and field experiments prove the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  10. One-Sign Order Parameter in Iron Based Superconductor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernd Büchner

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The onset of superconductivity at the transition temperature is marked by the onset of order, which is characterized by an energy gap. Most models of the iron-based superconductors find a sign-changing (s± order parameter [1–6], with the physical implication that pairing is driven by spin fluctuations. Recent work, however, has indicated that LiFeAs has a simple isotropic order parameter [7–9] and spin fluctuations are not necessary [7,10], contrary to the models [1–6]. The strength of the spin fluctuations has been controversial [11,12], meaning that the mechanism of superconductivity cannot as yet be determined. We report the momentum dependence of the superconducting energy gap, where we find an anisotropy that rules out coupling through spin fluctuations and the sign change. The results instead suggest that orbital fluctuations assisted by phonons [13,14] are the best explanation for superconductivity.

  11. Postprocessing MPEG based on estimated quantization parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Søren

    2009-01-01

    Postprocessing of MPEG(-2) video is widely used to attenuate the coding artifacts, especially deblocking but also deringing have been addressed. The focus has been on filters where the decoder has access to the code stream and e.g. utilizes information about the quantization parameter. We consider...

  12. Estimation of shape model parameters for 3D surfaces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Erbou, Søren Gylling Hemmingsen; Darkner, Sune; Fripp, Jurgen;

    2008-01-01

    Statistical shape models are widely used as a compact way of representing shape variation. Fitting a shape model to unseen data enables characterizing the data in terms of the model parameters. In this paper a Gauss-Newton optimization scheme is proposed to estimate shape model parameters of 3D s...

  13. 基于田块尺度含水率观测的土壤水力参数多模型反演%Multiple inverse models for estimating soil hydraulic parameters based on field-scale moisture content observation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘昭; 杨文元; 查元源; 杨金忠

    2015-01-01

    该文利用反演工具UCODE与4种Richards方程数值模型(Ross模型、Picard-θ模型、Picard-mix模型和Picard-h模型)进行耦合,构建了4种不同的反演模型。基于田块尺度含水率观测数据,分别用4种反演模型优化了研究田块的土壤参数。研究结果表明,4种模型的反演精度依次为:Ross模型、Picard-θ模型、Picard-mix模型和Picard-h模型,但差异并不显著,反演效率以Ross模型最优。随着网格的加密,各种模型所反演参数的模拟精度改善不明显。本文还讨论了土壤水运动中“异参同效性”现象,并提出“参数曲线带”的概念——即由反求的同效参数土壤水分曲线和水力传导度曲线形成的包络图。随着模拟精度要求越高,同效参数越少,“参数曲线带”越窄,并认为反求的同效参数曲线在含水率观测信息较多的地方交汇。%Unsaturated zone hydrological processes played an important role between the processes of surface and groundwater hydrology. The Richards’ equation was widely utilized to describe unsaturated zone flow due to its solid physical foundation. It was essential to know the parameters of this equation before simulation, and these parameters were also called as soil hydraulic parameters in this paper. Comparing with experimental methods, the inverse method was a more realistic way to obtain parameters. Universal Inverse Code (UCODE) using gradient-type minimization method provided users with flexibility in estimating parameters of forward models. However, there were many numerical methods to solve Richards’ equation, and four representative numerical models discussed in this paper were Ross model, Picard-θmodel, Picard-mix model and Picard-h model, respectively. It had been known that the Ross model was of the most computational efficiency, while Picard-h model may lead to serious mass balance problem. Based on the combination of UCODE and four numerical

  14. Compositional modelling of distributed-parameter systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maschke, Bernhard; Schaft, van der Arjan; Lamnabhi-Lagarrigue, F.; Loría, A.; Panteley, E.

    2005-01-01

    The Hamiltonian formulation of distributed-parameter systems has been a challenging reserach area for quite some time. (A nice introduction, especially with respect to systems stemming from fluid dynamics, can be found in [26], where also a historical account is provided.) The identification of the

  15. Bayesian approach to decompression sickness model parameter estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howle, L E; Weber, P W; Nichols, J M

    2017-03-01

    We examine both maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches for estimating probabilistic decompression sickness model parameters. Maximum likelihood estimation treats parameters as fixed values and determines the best estimate through repeated trials, whereas the Bayesian approach treats parameters as random variables and determines the parameter probability distributions. We would ultimately like to know the probability that a parameter lies in a certain range rather than simply make statements about the repeatability of our estimator. Although both represent powerful methods of inference, for models with complex or multi-peaked likelihoods, maximum likelihood parameter estimates can prove more difficult to interpret than the estimates of the parameter distributions provided by the Bayesian approach. For models of decompression sickness, we show that while these two estimation methods are complementary, the credible intervals generated by the Bayesian approach are more naturally suited to quantifying uncertainty in the model parameters.

  16. Beam Parameters Measurement Based On Tv Methods

    CERN Document Server

    Klimenkov, E; Milichenko, Yu; Voevodin, V

    2004-01-01

    The paper describes hardware and software used to control TV-cameras and to process TV-images of luminescent screens placed along the beam transfer lines. Industrial devices manually control the movements and focusing of the cameras. All devices are linked to PC via PCI interfaces with homemade drivers for Linux OS and provide both selection of camera and digitizing of video signal synchronized with beam. One part of software provides means to set initial parameters using PC consol. Thus an operator can choose contrast, brightness, some number of significant points on TV-image to calculate beam position and its size. Second part supports remote TV controls and data processing from Control Rooms of U-70 complex using set initial parameters. First experience and results of the method realization are discussed.

  17. 改进的隐马尔可夫表情识别模型参数优化算法%Modified parameter optimization algorithm for facial expression recognition based on hidden Markov model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    黄小娟; 吴荣腾

    2014-01-01

    人脸表情识别是人工智能领域中极富挑战性的课题,针对表情识别中存在的识别率低与计算量大的问题,提出了一种新的改进的隐马尔可夫表情识别模型参数优化的算法。先采用新的初始参数优化模型,然后利用Baum-Welch算法进行重估计,从而建立新的HMM人脸表情模型。实验结果表明,新模型明显提高了人脸表情的识别率并降低了计算量。%Facial expression recognition is quite a challenging subject in the field of artificial intelligence. Aiming at the problems of low recognition rate and the large computational problem of face expression recognition,a new modified parameter optimization algo-rithm is proposed for facial expression recognition based on the hidden Markov model. The method uses the initial parameters to opti-mize the model,and then uses Baum-Welch algorithm to estimate the parameters again. Hence,the new facial expression model based on HMM is established. The experimental results show that the new model significantly reduces the calculation amount and improve the facial expression recognition rate.

  18. Comparison of parameter estimation algorithms in hydrological modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blasone, Roberta-Serena; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2006-01-01

    Local search methods have been applied successfully in calibration of simple groundwater models, but might fail in locating the optimum for models of increased complexity, due to the more complex shape of the response surface. Global search algorithms have been demonstrated to perform well...... for these types of models, although at a more expensive computational cost. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the performance of a global and a local parameter optimization algorithm, respectively, the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) algorithm and the gradient-based Gauss......-Marquardt-Levenberg algorithm (implemented in the PEST software), when applied to a steady-state and a transient groundwater model. The results show that PEST can have severe problems in locating the global optimum and in being trapped in local regions of attractions. The global SCE procedure is, in general, more effective...

  19. Parameter Extraction for PSpice Models by means of an Automated Optimization Tool – An IGBT model Study Case

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Suárez, Carlos Gómez; Reigosa, Paula Diaz; Iannuzzo, Francesco;

    2016-01-01

    An original tool for parameter extraction of PSpice models has been released, enabling a simple parameter identification. A physics-based IGBT model is used to demonstrate that the optimization tool is capable of generating a set of parameters which predicts the steady-state and switching behavio...

  20. Fuzzy Logic-Based Techniques for Modeling the Correlation between the Weld Bead Dimension and the Process Parameters in MIG Welding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Surender

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Fuzzy logic-based techniques have been developed to model input-output relationships of metal inert gas (MIG welding process. Both conventional and hierarchical fuzzy logic controllers (FLCs of Mamdani type have been developed, and their performances are compared. The conventional FLC suffers from the curse of dimensionality for handling a large number of variables, and a hierarchical FLC was proposed earlier to tackle this problem. However, in that study, both the structure and knowledge base of the FLC were not optimized simultaneously, which has been attempted here. Simultaneous optimization of the structure and knowledge base is a difficult task, and to solve it, a genetic algorithm (GA will have to deal with the strings having varied lengths. A new scheme has been proposed here to tackle the problem related to crossover of two parents with unequal lengths. It is interesting to observe that the conventional FLC yields the best accuracy in predictions, whereas the hierarchical FLC can be computationally faster than others but at the cost of accuracy. Moreover, there is no improvement of interpretability by introducing a hierarchical fuzzy system. Thus, there exists a trade-off between the accuracy obtained in predictions and computational complexity of various FLCs.

  1. Parameter and uncertainty estimation for mechanistic, spatially explicit epidemiological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finger, Flavio; Schaefli, Bettina; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2014-05-01

    Epidemiological models can be a crucially important tool for decision-making during disease outbreaks. The range of possible applications spans from real-time forecasting and allocation of health-care resources to testing alternative intervention mechanisms such as vaccines, antibiotics or the improvement of sanitary conditions. Our spatially explicit, mechanistic models for cholera epidemics have been successfully applied to several epidemics including, the one that struck Haiti in late 2010 and is still ongoing. Calibration and parameter estimation of such models represents a major challenge because of properties unusual in traditional geoscientific domains such as hydrology. Firstly, the epidemiological data available might be subject to high uncertainties due to error-prone diagnosis as well as manual (and possibly incomplete) data collection. Secondly, long-term time-series of epidemiological data are often unavailable. Finally, the spatially explicit character of the models requires the comparison of several time-series of model outputs with their real-world counterparts, which calls for an appropriate weighting scheme. It follows that the usual assumption of a homoscedastic Gaussian error distribution, used in combination with classical calibration techniques based on Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, is likely to be violated, whereas the construction of an appropriate formal likelihood function seems close to impossible. Alternative calibration methods, which allow for accurate estimation of total model uncertainty, particularly regarding the envisaged use of the models for decision-making, are thus needed. Here we present the most recent developments regarding methods for parameter and uncertainty estimation to be used with our mechanistic, spatially explicit models for cholera epidemics, based on informal measures of goodness of fit.

  2. Parameter and Uncertainty Estimation in Groundwater Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jacob Birk

    The data basis on which groundwater models are constructed is in general very incomplete, and this leads to uncertainty in model outcome. Groundwater models form the basis for many, often costly decisions and if these are to be made on solid grounds, the uncertainty attached to model results must...... be quantified. This study was motivated by the need to estimate the uncertainty involved in groundwater models.Chapter 2 presents an integrated surface/subsurface unstructured finite difference model that was developed and applied to a synthetic case study.The following two chapters concern calibration...... and uncertainty estimation. Essential issues relating to calibration are discussed. The classical regression methods are described; however, the main focus is on the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. The next two chapters describe case studies in which the GLUE methodology...

  3. Is flow velocity a significant parameter in flood damage modelling?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Kreibich

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Flow velocity is generally presumed to influence flood damage. However, this influence is hardly quantified and virtually no damage models take it into account. Therefore, the influences of flow velocity, water depth and combinations of these two impact parameters on various types of flood damage were investigated in five communities affected by the Elbe catchment flood in Germany in 2002. 2-D hydraulic models with high to medium spatial resolutions were used to calculate the impact parameters at the sites in which damage occurred. A significant influence of flow velocity on structural damage, particularly on roads, could be shown in contrast to a minor influence on monetary losses and business interruption. Forecasts of structural damage to road infrastructure should be based on flow velocity alone. The energy head is suggested as a suitable flood impact parameter for reliable forecasting of structural damage to residential buildings above a critical impact level of 2 m of energy head or water depth. However, general consideration of flow velocity in flood damage modelling, particularly for estimating monetary loss, cannot be recommended.

  4. Uncertainty relation based on unbiased parameter estimations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Liang-Liang; Song, Yong-Shun; Qiao, Cong-Feng; Yu, Sixia; Chen, Zeng-Bing

    2017-02-01

    Heisenberg's uncertainty relation has been extensively studied in spirit of its well-known original form, in which the inaccuracy measures used exhibit some controversial properties and don't conform with quantum metrology, where the measurement precision is well defined in terms of estimation theory. In this paper, we treat the joint measurement of incompatible observables as a parameter estimation problem, i.e., estimating the parameters characterizing the statistics of the incompatible observables. Our crucial observation is that, in a sequential measurement scenario, the bias induced by the first unbiased measurement in the subsequent measurement can be eradicated by the information acquired, allowing one to extract unbiased information of the second measurement of an incompatible observable. In terms of Fisher information we propose a kind of information comparison measure and explore various types of trade-offs between the information gains and measurement precisions, which interpret the uncertainty relation as surplus variance trade-off over individual perfect measurements instead of a constraint on extracting complete information of incompatible observables.

  5. Parameter redundancy in discrete state‐space and integrated models

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCrea, Rachel S.

    2016-01-01

    Discrete state‐space models are used in ecology to describe the dynamics of wild animal populations, with parameters, such as the probability of survival, being of ecological interest. For a particular parametrization of a model it is not always clear which parameters can be estimated. This inability to estimate all parameters is known as parameter redundancy or a model is described as nonidentifiable. In this paper we develop methods that can be used to detect parameter redundancy in discrete state‐space models. An exhaustive summary is a combination of parameters that fully specify a model. To use general methods for detecting parameter redundancy a suitable exhaustive summary is required. This paper proposes two methods for the derivation of an exhaustive summary for discrete state‐space models using discrete analogues of methods for continuous state‐space models. We also demonstrate that combining multiple data sets, through the use of an integrated population model, may result in a model in which all parameters are estimable, even though models fitted to the separate data sets may be parameter redundant. PMID:27362826

  6. Parameter redundancy in discrete state-space and integrated models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Diana J; McCrea, Rachel S

    2016-09-01

    Discrete state-space models are used in ecology to describe the dynamics of wild animal populations, with parameters, such as the probability of survival, being of ecological interest. For a particular parametrization of a model it is not always clear which parameters can be estimated. This inability to estimate all parameters is known as parameter redundancy or a model is described as nonidentifiable. In this paper we develop methods that can be used to detect parameter redundancy in discrete state-space models. An exhaustive summary is a combination of parameters that fully specify a model. To use general methods for detecting parameter redundancy a suitable exhaustive summary is required. This paper proposes two methods for the derivation of an exhaustive summary for discrete state-space models using discrete analogues of methods for continuous state-space models. We also demonstrate that combining multiple data sets, through the use of an integrated population model, may result in a model in which all parameters are estimable, even though models fitted to the separate data sets may be parameter redundant. © 2016 The Author. Biometrical Journal published by WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  7. Image denoising model based on variational partial differential equation with double parameters%基于变分偏微分方程的双参数图像去噪模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    胡晓红; 陈大卿

    2012-01-01

    给出了一种基于变分偏微分方程的双参数图像去噪模型.利用变分法的极大极小原理,证明了该双参数模型存在唯一的极小值,给出该模型的Euler-Lagrange方程,根据给出的偏微分方程的离散格式,对噪声图像进行去噪,与Rudin,Osher and Fatemi提出的模型(ROF模型)的结果比较,结果表明,双参数模型在视觉上及峰度信噪比上都比ROF模型的去噪效果好.%This paper presents an image denoising model based on Variational Partial differential equation with double parameters. Firstly,using the minimax principle of variational method,this paper proves that the double parameters model has an unique minimal value,then it gives the corresponding Euler-Lagrange equation. Secondly,According to the given discrete format of partial differential equation,it denoises some noise images. Comparing the results with Rudin,Osher and Fatemi model(ROF model) ,the results show that double parameters model in visual and kurtosis signal-to-noise ratio has better denoising effect.

  8. An automatic and effective parameter optimization method for model tuning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Zhang

    2015-11-01

    simulation results show that the optimum combination of these parameters determined using this method is able to improve the model's overall performance by 9 %. The proposed methodology and software framework can be easily applied to other GCMs to speed up the model development process, especially regarding unavoidable comprehensive parameter tuning during the model development stage.

  9. Ternary interaction parameters in calphad solution models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eleno, Luiz T.F., E-mail: luizeleno@usp.br [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil). Instituto de Fisica; Schön, Claudio G., E-mail: schoen@usp.br [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil). Computational Materials Science Laboratory. Department of Metallurgical and Materials Engineering

    2014-07-01

    For random, diluted, multicomponent solutions, the excess chemical potentials can be expanded in power series of the composition, with coefficients that are pressure- and temperature-dependent. For a binary system, this approach is equivalent to using polynomial truncated expansions, such as the Redlich-Kister series for describing integral thermodynamic quantities. For ternary systems, an equivalent expansion of the excess chemical potentials clearly justifies the inclusion of ternary interaction parameters, which arise naturally in the form of correction terms in higher-order power expansions. To demonstrate this, we carry out truncated polynomial expansions of the excess chemical potential up to the sixth power of the composition variables. (author)

  10. Sensitivity analysis of CERES-Wheat model parameters based on EFAST method%基于EFAST方法的CERES-Wheat作物模型参数敏感性分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张静潇; 苏伟

    2012-01-01

    为有效识别作物模型关键参数,减少模型模拟的不适用性,根据中国农业大学上庄实验站小麦田间实测数据,应用EFAST方法对CERES-Wheat模型输入参数进行定量的全局敏感性分析,分析小麦模拟产量对作物参数、土壤参数和田间管理参数变化的敏感性。结果表明:CERES-Wheat模型的作物品种型参数中,标准籽粒质量参数对模拟结果影响最大,而生态型参数中影响最大的是营养生长末期叶片面积质量比率;土壤参数中的矿化系数对模拟结果影响最显著;管理参数中的施氮量、播种日期、施肥日期、播种深度对模拟结果影响较显著。基于EFAST方法的敏感性分析对作物模型修正具有指导意义,可为确定模型关键参数及模型进一步优化提供参考依据。%In order to effectively identify the key parameters of crop models and reduce the inapplicability of model simulation,the Extend Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test(EFAST) was used to analyze the global sensitivity of CERES-Wheat model parameters in Shangzhuang experimental station of China Agricultural University in Beijing.The sensitivity of crop,soil and field management parameters was analyzed.The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that standard kernel size under optimum conditions had the greatest impact on the simulation wheat yields among crop cultivar parameters while lamina area to weight ratio of phase 2 was the most significant one in crop ecotype parameters.For soil parameters,nitrogen mineralized factor was the most critical input.The amount of nitrogenous fertilizer,planting date,fertilization date and planting depth among all of field management parameters had the most significant influence on the simulation results.The research showed that the global sensitivity analysis based on EFAST had guiding significance for crop model correction and provided reference for parameter selection and crop model optimization.

  11. Parameter estimation and error analysis in environmental modeling and computation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalmaz, E. E.

    1986-01-01

    A method for the estimation of parameters and error analysis in the development of nonlinear modeling for environmental impact assessment studies is presented. The modular computer program can interactively fit different nonlinear models to the same set of data, dynamically changing the error structure associated with observed values. Parameter estimation techniques and sequential estimation algorithms employed in parameter identification and model selection are first discussed. Then, least-square parameter estimation procedures are formulated, utilizing differential or integrated equations, and are used to define a model for association of error with experimentally observed data.

  12. Inverse modeling of hydrologic parameters using surface flux and runoff observations in the Community Land Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Sun

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This study demonstrates the possibility of inverting hydrologic parameters using surface flux and runoff observations in version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4. Previous studies showed that surface flux and runoff calculations are sensitive to major hydrologic parameters in CLM4 over different watersheds, and illustrated the necessity and possibility of parameter calibration. Two inversion strategies, the deterministic least-square fitting and stochastic Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC Bayesian inversion approaches, are evaluated by applying them to CLM4 at selected sites. The unknowns to be estimated include surface and subsurface runoff generation parameters and vadose zone soil water parameters. We find that using model parameters calibrated by the least-square fitting provides little improvements in the model simulations but the sampling-based stochastic inversion approaches are consistent – as more information comes in, the predictive intervals of the calibrated parameters become narrower and the misfits between the calculated and observed responses decrease. In general, parameters that are identified to be significant through sensitivity analyses and statistical tests are better calibrated than those with weak or nonlinear impacts on flux or runoff observations. Temporal resolution of observations has larger impacts on the results of inverse modeling using heat flux data than runoff data. Soil and vegetation cover have important impacts on parameter sensitivities, leading to different patterns of posterior distributions of parameters at different sites. Overall, the MCMC-Bayesian inversion approach effectively and reliably improves the simulation of CLM under different climates and environmental conditions. Bayesian model averaging of the posterior estimates with different reference acceptance probabilities can smooth the posterior distribution and provide more reliable parameter estimates, but at the expense of wider uncertainty

  13. Model parameters for representative wetland plant functional groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Amber S.; Kiniry, James R.; Mushet, David M.; Smith, Loren M.; McMurry, Scott T.; Attebury, Kelly; Lang, Megan; McCarty, Gregory W.; Shaffer, Jill A.; Effland, William R.; Johnson, Mari-Vaughn V.

    2017-01-01

    Wetlands provide a wide variety of ecosystem services including water quality remediation, biodiversity refugia, groundwater recharge, and floodwater storage. Realistic estimation of ecosystem service benefits associated with wetlands requires reasonable simulation of the hydrology of each site and realistic simulation of the upland and wetland plant growth cycles. Objectives of this study were to quantify leaf area index (LAI), light extinction coefficient (k), and plant nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K) concentrations in natural stands of representative plant species for some major plant functional groups in the United States. Functional groups in this study were based on these parameters and plant growth types to enable process-based modeling. We collected data at four locations representing some of the main wetland regions of the United States. At each site, we collected on-the-ground measurements of fraction of light intercepted, LAI, and dry matter within the 2013–2015 growing seasons. Maximum LAI and k variables showed noticeable variations among sites and years, while overall averages and functional group averages give useful estimates for multisite simulation modeling. Variation within each species gives an indication of what can be expected in such natural ecosystems. For P and K, the concentrations from highest to lowest were spikerush (Eleocharis macrostachya), reed canary grass (Phalaris arundinacea), smartweed (Polygonum spp.), cattail (Typha spp.), and hardstem bulrush (Schoenoplectus acutus). Spikerush had the highest N concentration, followed by smartweed, bulrush, reed canary grass, and then cattail. These parameters will be useful for the actual wetland species measured and for the wetland plant functional groups they represent. These parameters and the associated process-based models offer promise as valuable tools for evaluating environmental benefits of wetlands and for evaluating impacts of various agronomic practices in

  14. Summary of the DREAM8 Parameter Estimation Challenge: Toward Parameter Identification for Whole-Cell Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan R Karr

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Whole-cell models that explicitly represent all cellular components at the molecular level have the potential to predict phenotype from genotype. However, even for simple bacteria, whole-cell models will contain thousands of parameters, many of which are poorly characterized or unknown. New algorithms are needed to estimate these parameters and enable researchers to build increasingly comprehensive models. We organized the Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods (DREAM 8 Whole-Cell Parameter Estimation Challenge to develop new parameter estimation algorithms for whole-cell models. We asked participants to identify a subset of parameters of a whole-cell model given the model's structure and in silico "experimental" data. Here we describe the challenge, the best performing methods, and new insights into the identifiability of whole-cell models. We also describe several valuable lessons we learned toward improving future challenges. Going forward, we believe that collaborative efforts supported by inexpensive cloud computing have the potential to solve whole-cell model parameter estimation.

  15. Modeling of state parameter and hardening function for granular materials

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    彭芳乐; 李建中

    2004-01-01

    A modified plastic strain energy as hardening state parameter for dense sand was proposed, based on the results from a series of drained plane strain tests on saturated dense Japanese Toyoura sand with precise stress and strain measurements along many stress paths. In addition, a unique hardening function between the plastic strain energy and the instantaneous stress path was also presented, which was independent of stress history. The proposed state parameter and hardening function was directly verified by the simple numerical integration method. It is shown that the proposed hardening function is independent of stress history and stress path and is appropriate to be used as the hardening rule in constitutive modeling for dense sand, and it is also capable of simulating the effects on the deformation characteristics of stress history and stress path for dense sand.

  16. Parameter Estimation of the Extended Vasiček Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanae RUJIVAN

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, an estimate of the drift and diffusion parameters of the extended Vasiček model is presented. The estimate is based on the method of maximum likelihood. We derive a closed-form expansion for the transition (probability density of the extended Vasiček process and use the expansion to construct an approximate log-likelihood function of a discretely sampled data of the process. Approximate maximum likelihood estimators (AMLEs of the parameters are obtained by maximizing the approximate log-likelihood function. The convergence of the AMLEs to the true maximum likelihood estimators is obtained by increasing the number of terms in the expansions with a small time step size.

  17. THE RELATIONS BETWEEN MODEL PARAMETERS AND CERTAIN PHENOMENA IN TRAFFIC FLOW

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    OU Zhong-hui; TAO Ming-de; WU Zheng

    2004-01-01

    Based on the dimensionless dynamic model of traffic flow, the model parameters were compared with numerically simulating solutions, and the effects of the former on the latter was investigated. Some relations between the parameters were obtained. Investigation several idealized results from dimensionless dynamic model of traffic flow were concluded.

  18. Automatic parameter extraction technique for gate leakage current modeling in double gate MOSFET

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darbandy, Ghader; Gneiting, Thomas; Alius, Heidrun; Alvarado, Joaquín; Cerdeira, Antonio; Iñiguez, Benjamin

    2013-11-01

    Direct Tunneling (DT) and Trap Assisted Tunneling (TAT) gate leakage current parameters have been extracted and verified considering automatic parameter extraction approach. The industry standard package IC-CAP is used to extract our leakage current model parameters. The model is coded in Verilog-A and the comparison between the model and measured data allows to obtain the model parameter values and parameters correlations/relations. The model and parameter extraction techniques have been used to study the impact of parameters in the gate leakage current based on the extracted parameter values. It is shown that the gate leakage current depends on the interfacial barrier height more strongly than the barrier height of the dielectric layer. There is almost the same scenario with respect to the carrier effective masses into the interfacial layer and the dielectric layer. The comparison between the simulated results and available measured gate leakage current transistor characteristics of Trigate MOSFETs shows good agreement.

  19. Verification Techniques for Parameter Selection and Bayesian Model Calibration Presented for an HIV Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wentworth, Mami Tonoe

    techniques for model calibration. For Bayesian model calibration, we employ adaptive Metropolis algorithms to construct densities for input parameters in the heat model and the HIV model. To quantify the uncertainty in the parameters, we employ two MCMC algorithms: Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis (DRAM) [33] and Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) [66, 68]. The densities obtained using these methods are compared to those obtained through the direct numerical evaluation of the Bayes' formula. We also combine uncertainties in input parameters and measurement errors to construct predictive estimates for a model response. A significant emphasis is on the development and illustration of techniques to verify the accuracy of sampling-based Metropolis algorithms. We verify the accuracy of DRAM and DREAM by comparing chains, densities and correlations obtained using DRAM, DREAM and the direct evaluation of Bayes formula. We also perform similar analysis for credible and prediction intervals for responses. Once the parameters are estimated, we employ energy statistics test [63, 64] to compare the densities obtained by different methods for the HIV model. The energy statistics are used to test the equality of distributions. We also consider parameter selection and verification techniques for models having one or more parameters that are noninfluential in the sense that they minimally impact model outputs. We illustrate these techniques for a dynamic HIV model but note that the parameter selection and verification framework is applicable to a wide range of biological and physical models. To accommodate the nonlinear input to output relations, which are typical for such models, we focus on global sensitivity analysis techniques, including those based on partial correlations, Sobol indices based on second-order model representations, and Morris indices, as well as a parameter selection technique based on standard errors. A significant objective is to provide

  20. Estimation of Kinetic Parameters in an Automotive SCR Catalyst Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Åberg, Andreas; Widd, Anders; Abildskov, Jens;

    2016-01-01

    A challenge during the development of models for simulation of the automotive Selective Catalytic Reduction catalyst is the parameter estimation of the kinetic parameters, which can be time consuming and problematic. The parameter estimation is often carried out on small-scale reactor tests, or p...

  1. Parameter Estimation in Stochastic Grey-Box Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Niels Rode; Madsen, Henrik; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2004-01-01

    An efficient and flexible parameter estimation scheme for grey-box models in the sense of discretely, partially observed Ito stochastic differential equations with measurement noise is presented along with a corresponding software implementation. The estimation scheme is based on the extended...... Kalman filter and features maximum likelihood as well as maximum a posteriori estimation on multiple independent data sets, including irregularly sampled data sets and data sets with occasional outliers and missing observations. The software implementation is compared to an existing software tool...

  2. Mirror symmetry for two parameter models, 2

    CERN Document Server

    Candelas, Philip; Katz, S; Morrison, Douglas Robert Ogston; Philip Candelas; Anamaria Font; Sheldon Katz; David R Morrison

    1994-01-01

    We describe in detail the space of the two K\\"ahler parameters of the Calabi--Yau manifold \\P_4^{(1,1,1,6,9)}[18] by exploiting mirror symmetry. The large complex structure limit of the mirror, which corresponds to the classical large radius limit, is found by studying the monodromy of the periods about the discriminant locus, the boundary of the moduli space corresponding to singular Calabi--Yau manifolds. A symplectic basis of periods is found and the action of the Sp(6,\\Z) generators of the modular group is determined. From the mirror map we compute the instanton expansion of the Yukawa couplings and the generalized N=2 index, arriving at the numbers of instantons of genus zero and genus one of each degree. We also investigate an SL(2,\\Z) symmetry that acts on a boundary of the moduli space.

  3. Accuracy of Parameter Estimation in Gibbs Sampling under the Two-Parameter Logistic Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Seock-Ho; Cohen, Allan S.

    The accuracy of Gibbs sampling, a Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure, was considered for estimation of item and ability parameters under the two-parameter logistic model. Memory test data were analyzed to illustrate the Gibbs sampling procedure. Simulated data sets were analyzed using Gibbs sampling and the marginal Bayesian method. The marginal…

  4. Dynamic systems models new methods of parameter and state estimation

    CERN Document Server

    2016-01-01

    This monograph is an exposition of a novel method for solving inverse problems, a method of parameter estimation for time series data collected from simulations of real experiments. These time series might be generated by measuring the dynamics of aircraft in flight, by the function of a hidden Markov model used in bioinformatics or speech recognition or when analyzing the dynamics of asset pricing provided by the nonlinear models of financial mathematics. Dynamic Systems Models demonstrates the use of algorithms based on polynomial approximation which have weaker requirements than already-popular iterative methods. Specifically, they do not require a first approximation of a root vector and they allow non-differentiable elements in the vector functions being approximated. The text covers all the points necessary for the understanding and use of polynomial approximation from the mathematical fundamentals, through algorithm development to the application of the method in, for instance, aeroplane flight dynamic...

  5. CHAMP: Changepoint Detection Using Approximate Model Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    positions as a Markov chain in which the transition probabilities are defined by the time since the last changepoint: p(τi+1 = t|τi = s) = g(t− s), (1...experimentally verified using artifi- cially generated data and are compared to those of Fearnhead and Liu [5]. 2 Related work Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are...length α, and maximum number of particles M . Output: Viterbi path of changepoint times and models // Initialize data structures 1: max path, prev queue

  6. Transport of Escherichia coli bacteria through laboratory columns of glacial-outwash sediments: estimating model parameter values based on sediment characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, J; Sun, K; Findlay, R H; Farruggia, F T; Porter, J; Mumy, K L; Tomaras, J; Tomaras, A

    2007-01-05

    Bacterial transport through cores of intact, glacial-outwash aquifer sediment was investigated with the overall goal of better understanding bacterial transport and developing a predictive capability based on the sediment characteristics. Variability was great among the cores. Normalized maximum bacterial-effluent concentrations ranged from 5.4x10(-7) to 0.36 and effluent recovery ranged from 2.9x10(-4) to 59%. Bacterial breakthrough was generally rapid with a sharp peak occurring nearly twice as early as the bromide peak. Bacterial breakthrough exhibited a long tail of relatively constant concentration averaging three orders of magnitude less than the peak concentration for up to 32 pore volumes. The tails were consistent with non-equilibrium detachment, corroborated by the results of flow interruption experiments. Bacterial breakthrough was accurately simulated with a transport model incorporating advection, dispersion and first-order non-equilibrium attachment/detachment. Relationships among bacterial transport and sediment characteristics were explored with multiple regression analyses. These analyses indicated that for these cores and experimental conditions, easily-measurable sediment characteristics--median grain size, degree of sorting, organic-matter content and hydraulic conductivity--accounted for 66%, 61% and 89% of the core-to-core variability in the bacterial effective porosity, dispersivity and attachment-rate coefficient, respectively. In addition, the bacterial effective porosity, median grain size and organic-matter content accounted for 76% of the inter-core variability in the detachment-rate coefficient. The resulting regression equations allow prediction of bacterial transport based on sediment characteristics and are a possible alternative to using colloid-filtration theory. Colloid-filtration theory, used without the benefit of running bacterial transport experiments, did not as accurately replicate the observed variability in the attachment

  7. Modeling of Toxicity-Relevant Electrophilic Reactivity for Guanine with Epoxides: Estimating the Hard and Soft Acids and Bases (HSAB) Parameter as a Predictor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jing; Wang, Chenchen; Ji, Li; Liu, Weiping

    2016-05-16

    According to the electrophilic theory in toxicology, many chemical carcinogens in the environment and/or their active metabolites are electrophiles that exert their effects by forming covalent bonds with nucleophilic DNA centers. The theory of hard and soft acids and bases (HSAB), which states that a toxic electrophile reacts preferentially with a biological macromolecule that has a similar hardness or softness, clarifies the underlying chemistry involved in this critical event. Epoxides are hard electrophiles that are produced endogenously by the enzymatic oxidation of parent chemicals (e.g., alkenes and PAHs). Epoxide ring opening proceeds through a SN2-type mechanism with hard nucleophile DNA sites as the major facilitators of toxic effects. Thus, the quantitative prediction of chemical reactivity would enable a predictive assessment of the molecular potential to exert electrophile-mediated toxicity. In this study, we calculated the activation energies for reactions between epoxides and the guanine N7 site for a diverse set of epoxides, including aliphatic epoxides, substituted styrene oxides, and PAH epoxides, using a state-of-the-art density functional theory (DFT) method. It is worth noting that these activation energies for diverse epoxides can be further predicted by quantum chemically calculated nucleophilic indices from HSAB theory, which is a less computationally demanding method than the exacting procedure for locating the transition state. More importantly, the good qualitative/quantitative correlations between the chemical reactivity of epoxides and their bioactivity suggest that the developed model based on HSAB theory may aid in the predictive hazard evaluation of epoxides, enabling the early identification of mutagenicity/carcinogenicity-relevant SN2 reactivity.

  8. Parameters-related uncertainty in modeling sugar cane yield with an agro-Land Surface Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valade, A.; Ciais, P.; Vuichard, N.; Viovy, N.; Ruget, F.; Gabrielle, B.

    2012-12-01

    Agro-Land Surface Models (agro-LSM) have been developed from the coupling of specific crop models and large-scale generic vegetation models. They aim at accounting for the spatial distribution and variability of energy, water and carbon fluxes within soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum with a particular emphasis on how crop phenology and agricultural management practice influence the turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere, and the underlying water and carbon pools. A part of the uncertainty in these models is related to the many parameters included in the models' equations. In this study, we quantify the parameter-based uncertainty in the simulation of sugar cane biomass production with the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS on a multi-regional approach with data from sites in Australia, La Reunion and Brazil. First, the main source of uncertainty for the output variables NPP, GPP, and sensible heat flux (SH) is determined through a screening of the main parameters of the model on a multi-site basis leading to the selection of a subset of most sensitive parameters causing most of the uncertainty. In a second step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out on the parameters selected from the screening analysis at a regional scale. For this, a Monte-Carlo sampling method associated with the calculation of Partial Ranked Correlation Coefficients is used. First, we quantify the sensitivity of the output variables to individual input parameters on a regional scale for two regions of intensive sugar cane cultivation in Australia and Brazil. Then, we quantify the overall uncertainty in the simulation's outputs propagated from the uncertainty in the input parameters. Seven parameters are identified by the screening procedure as driving most of the uncertainty in the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS model output at all sites. These parameters control photosynthesis (optimal temperature of photosynthesis, optimal carboxylation rate), radiation interception (extinction coefficient), root

  9. Parameter and Process Significance in Mechanistic Modeling of Cellulose Hydrolysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rotter, B.; Barry, A.; Gerhard, J.; Small, J.; Tahar, B.

    2005-12-01

    The rate of cellulose hydrolysis, and of associated microbial processes, is important in determining the stability of landfills and their potential impact on the environment, as well as associated time scales. To permit further exploration in this field, a process-based model of cellulose hydrolysis was developed. The model, which is relevant to both landfill and anaerobic digesters, includes a novel approach to biomass transfer between a cellulose-bound biofilm and biomass in the surrounding liquid. Model results highlight the significance of the bacterial colonization of cellulose particles by attachment through contact in solution. Simulations revealed that enhanced colonization, and therefore cellulose degradation, was associated with reduced cellulose particle size, higher biomass populations in solution, and increased cellulose-binding ability of the biomass. A sensitivity analysis of the system parameters revealed different sensitivities to model parameters for a typical landfill scenario versus that for an anaerobic digester. The results indicate that relative surface area of cellulose and proximity of hydrolyzing bacteria are key factors determining the cellulose degradation rate.

  10. WINKLER'S SINGLE-PARAMETER SUBGRADE MODEL FROM ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Preferred Customer

    [3, 9]. However, mainly due to the simplicity of Winkler's model in practical applications and .... this case, the coefficient B takes the dimension of a ... In plane-strain problems, the assumption of ... loaded circular region; s is the radial coordinate.

  11. Calculation of electromagnetic parameter based on interpolation algorithm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Wenqiang, E-mail: zwqcau@gmail.com [College of Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083 (China); Bionic and Micro/Nano/Bio Manufacturing Technology Research Center, Beihang University, Beijing 100191 (China); Yuan, Liming; Zhang, Deyuan [Bionic and Micro/Nano/Bio Manufacturing Technology Research Center, Beihang University, Beijing 100191 (China)

    2015-11-01

    Wave-absorbing material is an important functional material of electromagnetic protection. The wave-absorbing characteristics depend on the electromagnetic parameter of mixed media. In order to accurately predict the electromagnetic parameter of mixed media and facilitate the design of wave-absorbing material, based on the electromagnetic parameters of spherical and flaky carbonyl iron mixture of paraffin base, this paper studied two different interpolation methods: Lagrange interpolation and Hermite interpolation of electromagnetic parameters. The results showed that Hermite interpolation is more accurate than the Lagrange interpolation, and the reflectance calculated with the electromagnetic parameter obtained by interpolation is consistent with that obtained through experiment on the whole. - Highlights: • We use interpolation algorithm on calculation of EM-parameter with limited samples. • Interpolation method can predict EM-parameter well with different particles added. • Hermite interpolation is more accurate than Lagrange interpolation. • Calculating RL based on interpolation is consistent with calculating RL from experiment.

  12. Parameter identifiability-based optimal observation remedy for biological networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yulin; Miao, Hongyu

    2017-05-04

    To systematically understand the interactions between numerous biological components, a variety of biological networks on different levels and scales have been constructed and made available in public databases or knowledge repositories. Graphical models such as structural equation models have long been used to describe biological networks for various quantitative analysis tasks, especially key biological parameter estimation. However, limited by resources or technical capacities, partial observation is a common problem in experimental observations of biological networks, and it thus becomes an important problem how to select unobserved nodes for additional measurements such that all unknown model parameters become identifiable. To the best knowledge of our authors, a solution to this problem does not exist until this study. The identifiability-based observation problem for biological networks is mathematically formulated for the first time based on linear recursive structural equation models, and then a dynamic programming strategy is developed to obtain the optimal observation strategies. The efficiency of the dynamic programming algorithm is achieved by avoiding both symbolic computation and matrix operations as used in other studies. We also provided necessary theoretical justifications to the proposed method. Finally, we verified the algorithm using synthetic network structures and illustrated the application of the proposed method in practice using a real biological network related to influenza A virus infection. The proposed approach is the first solution to the structural identifiability-based optimal observation remedy problem. It is applicable to an arbitrary directed acyclic biological network (recursive SEMs) without bidirectional edges, and it is a computerizable method. Observation remedy is an important issue in experiment design for biological networks, and we believe that this study provides a solid basis for dealing with more challenging design

  13. Parameter Optimization Based on GA and HFSS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Shu-hui; WANG Bing-zhong

    2005-01-01

    A new project based on genetic algorithm (GA) and high frequency simulation software (HFSS) is proposed to optimize microwave passive devices effectively. This project is realized with a general program named as optimization program. The program is compiled by Matlab and the macro language of HFSS which is a fast and effective way to accomplish tasks. In the paper, two examples are used to show the project's feasibility.

  14. Improved Methodology for Parameter Inference in Nonlinear, Hydrologic Regression Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, Bryson C.

    1992-01-01

    A new method is developed for the construction of reliable marginal confidence intervals and joint confidence regions for the parameters of nonlinear, hydrologic regression models. A parameter power transformation is combined with measures of the asymptotic bias and asymptotic skewness of maximum likelihood estimators to determine the transformation constants which cause the bias or skewness to vanish. These optimized constants are used to construct confidence intervals and regions for the transformed model parameters using linear regression theory. The resulting confidence intervals and regions can be easily mapped into the original parameter space to give close approximations to likelihood method confidence intervals and regions for the model parameters. Unlike many other approaches to parameter transformation, the procedure does not use a grid search to find the optimal transformation constants. An example involving the fitting of the Michaelis-Menten model to velocity-discharge data from an Australian gauging station is used to illustrate the usefulness of the methodology.

  15. A simulation of water pollution model parameter estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibler, J. F.

    1976-01-01

    A parameter estimation procedure for a water pollution transport model is elaborated. A two-dimensional instantaneous-release shear-diffusion model serves as representative of a simple transport process. Pollution concentration levels are arrived at via modeling of a remote-sensing system. The remote-sensed data are simulated by adding Gaussian noise to the concentration level values generated via the transport model. Model parameters are estimated from the simulated data using a least-squares batch processor. Resolution, sensor array size, and number and location of sensor readings can be found from the accuracies of the parameter estimates.

  16. On retrial queueing model with fuzzy parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ke, Jau-Chuan; Huang, Hsin-I.; Lin, Chuen-Horng

    2007-01-01

    This work constructs the membership functions of the system characteristics of a retrial queueing model with fuzzy customer arrival, retrial and service rates. The α-cut approach is used to transform a fuzzy retrial-queue into a family of conventional crisp retrial queues in this context. By means of the membership functions of the system characteristics, a set of parametric non-linear programs is developed to describe the family of crisp retrial queues. A numerical example is solved successfully to illustrate the validity of the proposed approach. Because the system characteristics are expressed and governed by the membership functions, more information is provided for use by management. By extending this model to the fuzzy environment, fuzzy retrial-queue is represented more accurately and analytic results are more useful for system designers and practitioners.

  17. Solar parameters for modeling interplanetary background

    CERN Document Server

    Bzowski, M; Tokumaru, M; Fujiki, K; Quemerais, E; Lallement, R; Ferron, S; Bochsler, P; McComas, D J

    2011-01-01

    The goal of the Fully Online Datacenter of Ultraviolet Emissions (FONDUE) Working Team of the International Space Science Institute in Bern, Switzerland, was to establish a common calibration of various UV and EUV heliospheric observations, both spectroscopic and photometric. Realization of this goal required an up-to-date model of spatial distribution of neutral interstellar hydrogen in the heliosphere, and to that end, a credible model of the radiation pressure and ionization processes was needed. This chapter describes the solar factors shaping the distribution of neutral interstellar H in the heliosphere. Presented are the solar Lyman-alpha flux and the solar Lyman-alpha resonant radiation pressure force acting on neutral H atoms in the heliosphere, solar EUV radiation and the photoionization of heliospheric hydrogen, and their evolution in time and the still hypothetical variation with heliolatitude. Further, solar wind and its evolution with solar activity is presented in the context of the charge excha...

  18. Assessing models for parameters of the Ångström-Prescott formula in China

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Xiaoying; Xu, Yinlong; Zhong, Xiuli

    2012-01-01

    Application of the Ångström–Prescott (A–P) model, one of the best rated global solar irradiation (Rs) models based on sunshine, is often limited by the lack of model parameters. Increasing the availability of its parameters in the absence of Rs measurement provides an effective way to overcome...... this problem. Although some models relating the A–P parameters to other variables have been developed, they generally lack worldwide validity test. Using data from 80 sites covering three agro-climatic zones in China, we evaluated seven models that relate the parameters to annual average of relative sunshine...

  19. Linear Sigma Models With Strongly Coupled Phases -- One Parameter Models

    CERN Document Server

    Hori, Kentaro

    2013-01-01

    We systematically construct a class of two-dimensional $(2,2)$ supersymmetric gauged linear sigma models with phases in which a continuous subgroup of the gauge group is totally unbroken. We study some of their properties by employing a recently developed technique. The focus of the present work is on models with one K\\"ahler parameter. The models include those corresponding to Calabi-Yau threefolds, extending three examples found earlier by a few more, as well as Calabi-Yau manifolds of other dimensions and non-Calabi-Yau manifolds. The construction leads to predictions of equivalences of D-brane categories, systematically extending earlier examples. There is another type of surprise. Two distinct superconformal field theories corresponding to Calabi-Yau threefolds with different Hodge numbers, $h^{2,1}=23$ versus $h^{2,1}=59$, have exactly the same quantum K\\"ahler moduli space. The strong-weak duality plays a crucial r\\^ole in confirming this, and also is useful in the actual computation of the metric on t...

  20. Parameter identification in tidal models with uncertain boundaries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bagchi, Arunabha; ten Brummelhuis, P.G.J.; ten Brummelhuis, Paul

    1994-01-01

    In this paper we consider a simultaneous state and parameter estimation procedure for tidal models with random inputs, which is formulated as a minimization problem. It is assumed that some model parameters are unknown and that the random noise inputs only act upon the open boundaries. The

  1. Exploring the interdependencies between parameters in a material model.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silling, Stewart Andrew; Fermen-Coker, Muge

    2014-01-01

    A method is investigated to reduce the number of numerical parameters in a material model for a solid. The basis of the method is to detect interdependencies between parameters within a class of materials of interest. The method is demonstrated for a set of material property data for iron and steel using the Johnson-Cook plasticity model.

  2. An Alternative Three-Parameter Logistic Item Response Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pashley, Peter J.

    Birnbaum's three-parameter logistic function has become a common basis for item response theory modeling, especially within situations where significant guessing behavior is evident. This model is formed through a linear transformation of the two-parameter logistic function in order to facilitate a lower asymptote. This paper discusses an…

  3. Parameter identification in tidal models with uncertain boundaries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bagchi, Arunabha; Brummelhuis, ten Paul

    1994-01-01

    In this paper we consider a simultaneous state and parameter estimation procedure for tidal models with random inputs, which is formulated as a minimization problem. It is assumed that some model parameters are unknown and that the random noise inputs only act upon the open boundaries. The hyperboli

  4. A compact cyclic plasticity model with parameter evolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krenk, Steen; Tidemann, L.

    2017-01-01

    , and it is demonstrated that this simple formulation enables very accurate representation of experimental results. An extension of the theory to account for model parameter evolution effects, e.g. in the form of changing yield level, is included in the form of extended evolution equations for the model parameters...

  5. Bayesian estimation of parameters in a regional hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Engeland

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the applicability of the distributed, process-oriented Ecomag model for prediction of daily streamflow in ungauged basins. The Ecomag model is applied as a regional model to nine catchments in the NOPEX area, using Bayesian statistics to estimate the posterior distribution of the model parameters conditioned on the observed streamflow. The distribution is calculated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC analysis. The Bayesian method requires formulation of a likelihood function for the parameters and three alternative formulations are used. The first is a subjectively chosen objective function that describes the goodness of fit between the simulated and observed streamflow, as defined in the GLUE framework. The second and third formulations are more statistically correct likelihood models that describe the simulation errors. The full statistical likelihood model describes the simulation errors as an AR(1 process, whereas the simple model excludes the auto-regressive part. The statistical parameters depend on the catchments and the hydrological processes and the statistical and the hydrological parameters are estimated simultaneously. The results show that the simple likelihood model gives the most robust parameter estimates. The simulation error may be explained to a large extent by the catchment characteristics and climatic conditions, so it is possible to transfer knowledge about them to ungauged catchments. The statistical models for the simulation errors indicate that structural errors in the model are more important than parameter uncertainties. Keywords: regional hydrological model, model uncertainty, Bayesian analysis, Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis

  6. MCPB.py: A Python Based Metal Center Parameter Builder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Pengfei; Merz, Kenneth M

    2016-04-25

    MCPB.py, a python based metal center parameter builder, has been developed to build force fields for the simulation of metal complexes employing the bonded model approach. It has an optimized code structure, with far fewer required steps than the previous developed MCPB program. It supports various AMBER force fields and more than 80 metal ions. A series of parametrization schemes to derive force constants and charge parameters are available within the program. We give two examples (one metalloprotein example and one organometallic compound example), indicating the program's ability to build reliable force fields for different metal ion containing complexes. The original version was released with AmberTools15. It is provided via the GNU General Public License v3.0 (GNU_GPL_v3) agreement and is free to download and distribute. MCPB.py provides a bridge between quantum mechanical calculations and molecular dynamics simulation software packages thereby enabling the modeling of metal ion centers. It offers an entry into simulating metal ions in a number of situations by providing an efficient way for researchers to handle the vagaries and difficulties associated with metal ion modeling.

  7. 遗传算法在耙吸船疏浚模型参数估计中的应用%The Application of Genetic Algorithms on Parameter Estimation of the Model-based Trailing Suction Hopper Dredger

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨婷婷; 李炜; 苏贞; 叶树霞

    2016-01-01

    Based on the established models on the trailing suction hopper dredger (TSHD), this article focuses on the effect of sail parameters to the accuracy of the model. With the change of the dredging sites, dredging soil will change. Parameters related to soil of the original model will no longer apply to new dredging environment. This paper uses the genetic algorithms to estimate the soil parameters in different working conditions. And the verification result compared with experience and pattern search method furtherly shows the specific advantages of genetic algorithms.%在耙吸挖泥船疏浚模型建立的基础上,着重研究了三个与土壤相关参数对模型准确性的影响。随着疏浚场所的改变,疏浚的土质将发生变化。原有模型中使用的与土壤相关的参数将不再试用于新的疏浚场所。这篇文章运用遗传算法针对不同疏浚工况进行了与土壤相关参数的重新估算。并且与经验值、模式搜索法得到的结果进行了比较,进一步阐述了遗传算法的具体优势。

  8. Models for setting ATM parameter values

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blaabjerg, Søren; Gravey, A.; Romæuf, L.

    1996-01-01

    In ATM networks, a user should negotiate at connection set-up a traffic contract which includes traffic characteristics and requested QoS. The traffic characteristics currently considered are the Peak Cell Rate, the Sustainable Cell Rate, the Intrinsic Burst Tolerance and the Cell Delay Variation...... to Network Interface (UNI) and at subsequent Inter Carrier Interfaces (ICIs), by algorithmic rules based on the Generic Cell Rate Algorithm (GCRA) formalism. Conformance rules are implemented by policing mechanisms that control the traffic submitted by the user and discard excess traffic. It is therefore...

  9. Optimization of Experimental Model Parameter Identification for Energy Storage Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosario Morello

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The smart grid approach is envisioned to take advantage of all available modern technologies in transforming the current power system to provide benefits to all stakeholders in the fields of efficient energy utilisation and of wide integration of renewable sources. Energy storage systems could help to solve some issues that stem from renewable energy usage in terms of stabilizing the intermittent energy production, power quality and power peak mitigation. With the integration of energy storage systems into the smart grids, their accurate modeling becomes a necessity, in order to gain robust real-time control on the network, in terms of stability and energy supply forecasting. In this framework, this paper proposes a procedure to identify the values of the battery model parameters in order to best fit experimental data and integrate it, along with models of energy sources and electrical loads, in a complete framework which represents a real time smart grid management system. The proposed method is based on a hybrid optimisation technique, which makes combined use of a stochastic and a deterministic algorithm, with low computational burden and can therefore be repeated over time in order to account for parameter variations due to the battery’s age and usage.

  10. Spatio-temporal modeling of nonlinear distributed parameter systems

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Han-Xiong

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this volume is to provide a brief review of the previous work on model reduction and identifi cation of distributed parameter systems (DPS), and develop new spatio-temporal models and their relevant identifi cation approaches. In this book, a systematic overview and classifi cation on the modeling of DPS is presented fi rst, which includes model reduction, parameter estimation and system identifi cation. Next, a class of block-oriented nonlinear systems in traditional lumped parameter systems (LPS) is extended to DPS, which results in the spatio-temporal Wiener and Hammerstein s

  11. Estimating stellar atmospheric parameters based on Lasso features

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Chuan-Xing; Zhang, Pei-Ai; Lu, Yu

    2014-04-01

    With the rapid development of large scale sky surveys like the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), GAIA and LAMOST (Guoshoujing telescope), stellar spectra can be obtained on an ever-increasing scale. Therefore, it is necessary to estimate stellar atmospheric parameters such as Teff, log g and [Fe/H] automatically to achieve the scientific goals and make full use of the potential value of these observations. Feature selection plays a key role in the automatic measurement of atmospheric parameters. We propose to use the least absolute shrinkage selection operator (Lasso) algorithm to select features from stellar spectra. Feature selection can reduce redundancy in spectra, alleviate the influence of noise, improve calculation speed and enhance the robustness of the estimation system. Based on the extracted features, stellar atmospheric parameters are estimated by the support vector regression model. Three typical schemes are evaluated on spectral data from both the ELODIE library and SDSS. Experimental results show the potential performance to a certain degree. In addition, results show that our method is stable when applied to different spectra.

  12. Structural Breaks, Parameter Stability and Energy Demand Modeling in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olusegun A. Omisakin

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper extends previous studies in modeling and estimating energy demand functions for both gasoline and kerosene petroleum products for Nigeria from 1977 to 2008. In contrast to earlier studies on Nigeria and other developing countries, this study specifically tests for the possibility of structural breaks/regime shifts and parameter instability in the energy demand functions using more recent and robust techniques. In addition, the study considers an alternative model specification which primarily captures the price-income interaction effects on both gasoline and kerosene demand functions. While the conventional residual-based cointegration tests employed fail to identify any meaningful long run relationship in both functions, the Gregory-Hansen structural break cointegration approach confirms the cointegration relationships despite the breakpoints. Both functions are also found to be stable under the period studied.The elasticity estimates also follow the a priori expectation being inelastic both in the long- and short run for the two functions.

  13. Modeling soil detachment capacity by rill flow using hydraulic parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dongdong; Wang, Zhanli; Shen, Nan; Chen, Hao

    2016-04-01

    The relationship between soil detachment capacity (Dc) by rill flow and hydraulic parameters (e.g., flow velocity, shear stress, unit stream power, stream power, and unit energy) at low flow rates is investigated to establish an accurate experimental model. Experiments are conducted using a 4 × 0.1 m rill hydraulic flume with a constant artificial roughness on the flume bed. The flow rates range from 0.22 × 10-3 m2 s-1 to 0.67 × 10-3 m2 s-1, and the slope gradients vary from 15.8% to 38.4%. Regression analysis indicates that the Dc by rill flow can be predicted using the linear equations of flow velocity, stream power, unit stream power, and unit energy. Dc by rill flow that is fitted to shear stress can be predicted with a power function equation. Predictions based on flow velocity, unit energy, and stream power are powerful, but those based on shear stress, especially on unit stream power, are relatively poor. The prediction based on flow velocity provides the best estimates of Dc by rill flow because of the simplicity and availability of its measurements. Owing to error in measuring flow velocity at low flow rates, the predictive abilities of Dc by rill flow using all hydraulic parameters are relatively lower in this study compared with the results of previous research. The measuring accuracy of experiments for flow velocity should be improved in future research.

  14. Identification of hydrological model parameter variation using ensemble Kalman filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Chao; Liu, Pan; Guo, Shenglian; Li, Zejun; Wang, Dingbao

    2016-12-01

    Hydrological model parameters play an important role in the ability of model prediction. In a stationary context, parameters of hydrological models are treated as constants; however, model parameters may vary with time under climate change and anthropogenic activities. The technique of ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is proposed to identify the temporal variation of parameters for a two-parameter monthly water balance model (TWBM) by assimilating the runoff observations. Through a synthetic experiment, the proposed method is evaluated with time-invariant (i.e., constant) parameters and different types of parameter variations, including trend, abrupt change and periodicity. Various levels of observation uncertainty are designed to examine the performance of the EnKF. The results show that the EnKF can successfully capture the temporal variations of the model parameters. The application to the Wudinghe basin shows that the water storage capacity (SC) of the TWBM model has an apparent increasing trend during the period from 1958 to 2000. The identified temporal variation of SC is explained by land use and land cover changes due to soil and water conservation measures. In contrast, the application to the Tongtianhe basin shows that the estimated SC has no significant variation during the simulation period of 1982-2013, corresponding to the relatively stationary catchment properties. The evapotranspiration parameter (C) has temporal variations while no obvious change patterns exist. The proposed method provides an effective tool for quantifying the temporal variations of the model parameters, thereby improving the accuracy and reliability of model simulations and forecasts.

  15. Universally sloppy parameter sensitivities in systems biology models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan N Gutenkunst

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative computational models play an increasingly important role in modern biology. Such models typically involve many free parameters, and assigning their values is often a substantial obstacle to model development. Directly measuring in vivo biochemical parameters is difficult, and collectively fitting them to other experimental data often yields large parameter uncertainties. Nevertheless, in earlier work we showed in a growth-factor-signaling model that collective fitting could yield well-constrained predictions, even when it left individual parameters very poorly constrained. We also showed that the model had a "sloppy" spectrum of parameter sensitivities, with eigenvalues roughly evenly distributed over many decades. Here we use a collection of models from the literature to test whether such sloppy spectra are common in systems biology. Strikingly, we find that every model we examine has a sloppy spectrum of sensitivities. We also test several consequences of this sloppiness for building predictive models. In particular, sloppiness suggests that collective fits to even large amounts of ideal time-series data will often leave many parameters poorly constrained. Tests over our model collection are consistent with this suggestion. This difficulty with collective fits may seem to argue for direct parameter measurements, but sloppiness also implies that such measurements must be formidably precise and complete to usefully constrain many model predictions. We confirm this implication in our growth-factor-signaling model. Our results suggest that sloppy sensitivity spectra are universal in systems biology models. The prevalence of sloppiness highlights the power of collective fits and suggests that modelers should focus on predictions rather than on parameters.

  16. Tube-Load Model Parameter Estimation for Monitoring Arterial Hemodynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guanqun eZhang

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available A useful model of the arterial system is the uniform, lossless tube with parametric load. This tube-load model is able to account for wave propagation and reflection (unlike lumped-parameter models such as the Windkessel while being defined by only a few parameters (unlike comprehensive distributed-parameter models. As a result, the parameters may be readily estimated by accurate fitting of the model to available arterial pressure and flow waveforms so as to permit improved monitoring of arterial hemodynamics. In this paper, we review tube-load model parameter estimation techniques that have appeared in the literature for monitoring wave reflection, large artery compliance, pulse transit time, and central aortic pressure. We begin by motivating the use of the tube-load model for parameter estimation. We then describe the tube-load model, its assumptions and validity, and approaches for estimating its parameters. We next summarize the various techniques and their experimental results while highlighting their advantages over conventional techniques. We conclude the review by suggesting future research directions and describing potential applications.

  17. Tube-Load Model Parameter Estimation for Monitoring Arterial Hemodynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Guanqun; Hahn, Jin-Oh; Mukkamala, Ramakrishna

    2011-01-01

    A useful model of the arterial system is the uniform, lossless tube with parametric load. This tube-load model is able to account for wave propagation and reflection (unlike lumped-parameter models such as the Windkessel) while being defined by only a few parameters (unlike comprehensive distributed-parameter models). As a result, the parameters may be readily estimated by accurate fitting of the model to available arterial pressure and flow waveforms so as to permit improved monitoring of arterial hemodynamics. In this paper, we review tube-load model parameter estimation techniques that have appeared in the literature for monitoring wave reflection, large artery compliance, pulse transit time, and central aortic pressure. We begin by motivating the use of the tube-load model for parameter estimation. We then describe the tube-load model, its assumptions and validity, and approaches for estimating its parameters. We next summarize the various techniques and their experimental results while highlighting their advantages over conventional techniques. We conclude the review by suggesting future research directions and describing potential applications. PMID:22053157

  18. Design and Simulation of PID parameters self-tuning based on DC speed regulating system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Wei Jie

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The DC speed regulating system has many difficult issues such as system parameters and PID control parameters are difficult to determine. On the basis of model for a single closed-loop DC speed regulating system, this paper puts forward a method of PID parameters self-tuning based on the step response detection and reduced order equivalent. First, detect system step response and get response parameters. Then equal it to a second order system model, and achieve optimal PID control parameters based on optimal second order system to realize of PID parameters self-tuning. The PID parameters self-tuning process of DC speed regulating system is simulated with the help of MATLAB/Simulink. The simulation results show that the method is simple and effective. The system can obtain good dynamic and static performance when the PID parameters are applied to DC speed regulating system.

  19. Parameter estimation and investigation of a bolted joint model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiryayev, O. V.; Page, S. M.; Pettit, C. L.; Slater, J. C.

    2007-11-01

    Mechanical joints are a primary source of variability in the dynamics of built-up structures. Physical phenomena in the joint are quite complex and therefore too impractical to model at the micro-scale. This motivates the development of lumped parameter joint models with discrete interfaces so that they can be easily implemented in finite element codes. Among the most important considerations in choosing a model for dynamically excited systems is its ability to model energy dissipation. This translates into the need for accurate and reliable methods to measure model parameters and estimate their inherent variability from experiments. The adjusted Iwan model was identified as a promising candidate for representing joint dynamics. Recent research focused on this model has exclusively employed impulse excitation in conjunction with neural networks to identify the model parameters. This paper presents an investigation of an alternative parameter estimation approach for the adjusted Iwan model, which employs data from oscillatory forcing. This approach is shown to produce parameter estimates with precision similar to the impulse excitation method for a range of model parameters.

  20. Modeling and Parameter Estimation of a Small Wind Generation System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos A. Ramírez Gómez

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The modeling and parameter estimation of a small wind generation system is presented in this paper. The system consists of a wind turbine, a permanent magnet synchronous generator, a three phase rectifier, and a direct current load. In order to estimate the parameters wind speed data are registered in a weather station located in the Fraternidad Campus at ITM. Wind speed data were applied to a reference model programed with PSIM software. From that simulation, variables were registered to estimate the parameters. The wind generation system model together with the estimated parameters is an excellent representation of the detailed model, but the estimated model offers a higher flexibility than the programed model in PSIM software.

  1. Parameter estimation of hidden periodic model in random fields

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    何书元

    1999-01-01

    Two-dimensional hidden periodic model is an important model in random fields. The model is used in the field of two-dimensional signal processing, prediction and spectral analysis. A method of estimating the parameters for the model is designed. The strong consistency of the estimators is proved.

  2. Risk Evaluation Model of Parameter Measurement Based on Reliability Design for Warship%基于舰船可靠性设计的参数测量风险评估方法研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    章婷; 黄喜珍; 吴祺; 何梦蕾; 夏建超

    2016-01-01

    A new evaluation method of the parameter measurement risk based on reliability design is presented in the paper.Based on the Weight Estimation and reliability model,the calculated model of measurement risk probability is de-scribed.The equipment's measurement reliability and system's reliability design are fully taken into account in this approach. It provides a theoretical support for the quantitative assessment of parameter measurement risk.And this modeling would be a helpful step to the performance valuation of measuring systems.%该文提出了一种基于舰船可靠性设计的参数测量风险概率评估方法.该方法将舰船设备的测量可靠性与系统可靠性设计相结合,通过"加权评估法"和"可靠性模型",提出以系统参数为对象的测量风险概率计算模型.该方法为定量评价参数测量风险提供了理论支撑,为评估测量系统的技术性能提供了新的途径.

  3. On the Influence of Material Parameters in a Complex Material Model for Powder Compaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staf, Hjalmar; Lindskog, Per; Andersson, Daniel C.; Larsson, Per-Lennart

    2016-10-01

    Parameters in a complex material model for powder compaction, based on a continuum mechanics approach, are evaluated using real insert geometries. The parameter sensitivity with respect to density and stress after compaction, pertinent to a wide range of geometries, is studied in order to investigate completeness and limitations of the material model. Finite element simulations with varied material parameters are used to build surrogate models for the sensitivity study. The conclusion from this analysis is that a simplification of the material model is relevant, especially for simple insert geometries. Parameters linked to anisotropy and the plastic strain evolution angle have a small impact on the final result.

  4. Recommended direct simulation Monte Carlo collision model parameters for modeling ionized air transport processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swaminathan-Gopalan, Krishnan; Stephani, Kelly A., E-mail: ksteph@illinois.edu [Department of Mechanical Science and Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois 61801 (United States)

    2016-02-15

    A systematic approach for calibrating the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) collision model parameters to achieve consistency in the transport processes is presented. The DSMC collision cross section model parameters are calibrated for high temperature atmospheric conditions by matching the collision integrals from DSMC against ab initio based collision integrals that are currently employed in the Langley Aerothermodynamic Upwind Relaxation Algorithm (LAURA) and Data Parallel Line Relaxation (DPLR) high temperature computational fluid dynamics solvers. The DSMC parameter values are computed for the widely used Variable Hard Sphere (VHS) and the Variable Soft Sphere (VSS) models using the collision-specific pairing approach. The recommended best-fit VHS/VSS parameter values are provided over a temperature range of 1000-20 000 K for a thirteen-species ionized air mixture. Use of the VSS model is necessary to achieve consistency in transport processes of ionized gases. The agreement of the VSS model transport properties with the transport properties as determined by the ab initio collision integral fits was found to be within 6% in the entire temperature range, regardless of the composition of the mixture. The recommended model parameter values can be readily applied to any gas mixture involving binary collisional interactions between the chemical species presented for the specified temperature range.

  5. Recommended direct simulation Monte Carlo collision model parameters for modeling ionized air transport processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swaminathan-Gopalan, Krishnan; Stephani, Kelly A.

    2016-02-01

    A systematic approach for calibrating the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) collision model parameters to achieve consistency in the transport processes is presented. The DSMC collision cross section model parameters are calibrated for high temperature atmospheric conditions by matching the collision integrals from DSMC against ab initio based collision integrals that are currently employed in the Langley Aerothermodynamic Upwind Relaxation Algorithm (LAURA) and Data Parallel Line Relaxation (DPLR) high temperature computational fluid dynamics solvers. The DSMC parameter values are computed for the widely used Variable Hard Sphere (VHS) and the Variable Soft Sphere (VSS) models using the collision-specific pairing approach. The recommended best-fit VHS/VSS parameter values are provided over a temperature range of 1000-20 000 K for a thirteen-species ionized air mixture. Use of the VSS model is necessary to achieve consistency in transport processes of ionized gases. The agreement of the VSS model transport properties with the transport properties as determined by the ab initio collision integral fits was found to be within 6% in the entire temperature range, regardless of the composition of the mixture. The recommended model parameter values can be readily applied to any gas mixture involving binary collisional interactions between the chemical species presented for the specified temperature range.

  6. Dynamic contrast-enhanced CT of head and neck tumors: perfusion measurements using a distributed-parameter tracer kinetic model. Initial results and comparison with deconvolution-based analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bisdas, Sotirios; Konstantinou, George N.; Sherng Lee, Puor; Thng, Choon Hua; Wagenblast, Jens; Baghi, Mehran; San Koh, Tong

    2007-10-01

    The objective of this work was to evaluate the feasibility of a two-compartment distributed-parameter (DP) tracer kinetic model to generate functional images of several physiologic parameters from dynamic contrast-enhanced CT data obtained of patients with extracranial head and neck tumors and to compare the DP functional images to those obtained by deconvolution-based DCE-CT data analysis. We performed post-processing of DCE-CT studies, obtained from 15 patients with benign and malignant head and neck cancer. We introduced a DP model of the impulse residue function for a capillary-tissue exchange unit, which accounts for the processes of convective transport and capillary-tissue exchange. The calculated parametric maps represented blood flow (F), intravascular blood volume (v1), extravascular extracellular blood volume (v2), vascular transit time (t1), permeability-surface area product (PS), transfer ratios k12 and k21, and the fraction of extracted tracer (E). Based on the same regions of interest (ROI) analysis, we calculated the tumor blood flow (BF), blood volume (BV) and mean transit time (MTT) by using a modified deconvolution-based analysis taking into account the extravasation of the contrast agent for PS imaging. We compared the corresponding values by using Bland-Altman plot analysis. We outlined 73 ROIs including tumor sites, lymph nodes and normal tissue. The Bland-Altman plot analysis revealed that the two methods showed an accepted degree of agreement for blood flow, and, thus, can be used interchangeably for measuring this parameter. Slightly worse agreement was observed between v1 in the DP model and BV but even here the two tracer kinetic analyses can be used interchangeably. Under consideration of whether both techniques may be used interchangeably was the case of t1 and MTT, as well as for measurements of the PS values. The application of the proposed DP model is feasible in the clinical routine and it can be used interchangeably for measuring

  7. Dynamic contrast-enhanced CT of head and neck tumors: perfusion measurements using a distributed-parameter tracer kinetic model. Initial results and comparison with deconvolution-based analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bisdas, Sotirios [Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Johann Wolfgang GoeUniversity Hospital, 60590 Frankfurt (Germany); Konstantinou, George N [401 General Military Hospital, Athens (Greece); Lee, Puor Sherng [Department of Oncologic Imaging National Cancer Centre, 169610 Singapore (Singapore); Thng, Choon Hua [Department of Oncologic Imaging National Cancer Centre, 169610 Singapore (Singapore); Wagenblast, Jens [Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Johann Wolfgang GoeUniversity Hospital, 60590 Frankfurt (Germany); Baghi, Mehran [Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Johann Wolfgang GoeUniversity Hospital, 60590 Frankfurt (Germany); Koh, Tong San [Center for Modeling and Control of Complex Systems, Nanyang Technological University, 639798 Singapore (Singapore)

    2007-10-21

    The objective of this work was to evaluate the feasibility of a two-compartment distributed-parameter (DP) tracer kinetic model to generate functional images of several physiologic parameters from dynamic contrast-enhanced CT data obtained of patients with extracranial head and neck tumors and to compare the DP functional images to those obtained by deconvolution-based DCE-CT data analysis. We performed post-processing of DCE-CT studies, obtained from 15 patients with benign and malignant head and neck cancer. We introduced a DP model of the impulse residue function for a capillary-tissue exchange unit, which accounts for the processes of convective transport and capillary-tissue exchange. The calculated parametric maps represented blood flow (F), intravascular blood volume (v{sub 1}), extravascular extracellular blood volume (v{sub 2}), vascular transit time (t{sub 1}), permeability-surface area product (PS), transfer ratios k{sub 12} and k{sub 21}, and the fraction of extracted tracer (E). Based on the same regions of interest (ROI) analysis, we calculated the tumor blood flow (BF), blood volume (BV) and mean transit time (MTT) by using a modified deconvolution-based analysis taking into account the extravasation of the contrast agent for PS imaging. We compared the corresponding values by using Bland-Altman plot analysis. We outlined 73 ROIs including tumor sites, lymph nodes and normal tissue. The Bland-Altman plot analysis revealed that the two methods showed an accepted degree of agreement for blood flow, and, thus, can be used interchangeably for measuring this parameter. Slightly worse agreement was observed between v{sub 1} in the DP model and BV but even here the two tracer kinetic analyses can be used interchangeably. Under consideration of whether both techniques may be used interchangeably was the case of t{sub 1} and MTT, as well as for measurements of the PS values. The application of the proposed DP model is feasible in the clinical routine and it

  8. Recommendations concerning models and parameters best suited to breeder reactor environmental radiological assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, C.W.; Baes, C.F. III; Dunning, D.E. Jr.

    1980-05-01

    Recommendations are presented concerning the models and parameters best suited for assessing the impact of radionuclide releases to the environment by breeder reactor facilities. These recommendations are based on the model and parameter evaluations performed during this project to date. Seven different areas are covered in separate sections.

  9. Quantification of remodeling parameter sensitivity - assessed by a computer simulation model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, J.S.; Mosekilde, Li.; Mosekilde, Erik

    1996-01-01

    We have used a computer simulation model to evaluate the effect of several bone remodeling parameters on vertebral cancellus bone. The menopause was chosen as the base case scenario, and the sensitivity of the model to the following parameters was investigated: activation frequency, formation...

  10. Temperature-based bioclimatic parameters can predict nematode metabolic footprints.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhusal, Daya Ram; Tsiafouli, Maria A; Sgardelis, Stefanos P

    2015-09-01

    Nematode metabolic footprints (MFs) refer to the lifetime amount of metabolized carbon per individual, indicating a connection to soil food web functions and eventually to processes supporting ecosystem services. Estimating and managing these at a convenient scale requires information upscaling from the soil sample to the landscape level. We explore the feasibility of predicting nematode MFs from temperature-based bioclimatic parameters across a landscape. We assume that temperature effects are reflected in MFs, since temperature variations determine life processes ranging from enzyme activities to community structure. We use microclimate data recorded for 1 year from sites differing by orientation, altitude and vegetation cover. At the same sites we estimate MFs for each nematode trophic group. Our models show that bioclimatic parameters, specifically those accounting for temporal variations in temperature and extremities, predict most of the variation in nematode MFs. Higher fungivorous and lower bacterivorous nematode MFs are predicted for sites with high seasonality and low isothermality (sites of low vegetation, mostly at low altitudes), indicating differences in the relative contribution of the corresponding food web channels to the metabolism of carbon across the landscape. Higher plant-parasitic MFs were predicted for sites with high seasonality. The fitted models provide realistic predictions of unknown cases within the range of the predictor's values, allowing for the interpolation of MFs within the sampled region. We conclude that upscaling of the bioindication potential of nematode communities is feasible and can provide new perspectives not only in the field of soil ecology but other research areas as well.

  11. An Improved Attention Parameter Setting Algorithm Based on Award Learning Mechanism

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Fang Xiuduan; Liu Binhan; Wang Weizhi

    2002-01-01

    The setting of attention parameters plays a role in the performance of synergetic neural network based on PFAP model. This paper first analyzes the attention parameter setting algorithm based on award-penalty learning mechanism. Then, it presents an improved algorithm to overcome its drawbacks. The experimental results demonstrate that the novel algorithm is better than the original one under the same circumstances.

  12. Estimation of the input parameters in the Feller neuronal model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ditlevsen, Susanne; Lansky, Petr

    2006-06-01

    The stochastic Feller neuronal model is studied, and estimators of the model input parameters, depending on the firing regime of the process, are derived. Closed expressions for the first two moments of functionals of the first-passage time (FTP) through a constant boundary in the suprathreshold regime are derived, which are used to calculate moment estimators. In the subthreshold regime, the exponentiality of the FTP is utilized to characterize the input parameters. The methods are illustrated on simulated data. Finally, approximations of the first-passage-time moments are suggested, and biological interpretations and comparisons of the parameters in the Feller and the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models are discussed.

  13. An automatic and effective parameter optimization method for model tuning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Zhang

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Physical parameterizations in General Circulation Models (GCMs, having various uncertain parameters, greatly impact model performance and model climate sensitivity. Traditional manual and empirical tuning of these parameters is time consuming and ineffective. In this study, a "three-step" methodology is proposed to automatically and effectively obtain the optimum combination of some key parameters in cloud and convective parameterizations according to a comprehensive objective evaluation metrics. Different from the traditional optimization methods, two extra steps, one determines parameter sensitivity and the other chooses the optimum initial value of sensitive parameters, are introduced before the downhill simplex method to reduce the computational cost and improve the tuning performance. Atmospheric GCM simulation results show that the optimum combination of these parameters determined using this method is able to improve the model's overall performance by 9%. The proposed methodology and software framework can be easily applied to other GCMs to speed up the model development process, especially regarding unavoidable comprehensive parameters tuning during the model development stage.

  14. Optimal parameters for the FFA-Beddoes dynamic stall model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bjoerck, A.; Mert, M. [FFA, The Aeronautical Research Institute of Sweden, Bromma (Sweden); Madsen, H.A. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)

    1999-03-01

    Unsteady aerodynamic effects, like dynamic stall, must be considered in calculation of dynamic forces for wind turbines. Models incorporated in aero-elastic programs are of semi-empirical nature. Resulting aerodynamic forces therefore depend on values used for the semi-empiricial parameters. In this paper a study of finding appropriate parameters to use with the Beddoes-Leishman model is discussed. Minimisation of the `tracking error` between results from 2D wind tunnel tests and simulation with the model is used to find optimum values for the parameters. The resulting optimum parameters show a large variation from case to case. Using these different sets of optimum parameters in the calculation of blade vibrations, give rise to quite different predictions of aerodynamic damping which is discussed. (au)

  15. GA based CNC turning center exploitation process parameters optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Car

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents machining parameters (turning process optimization based on the use of artificial intelligence. To obtain greater efficiency and productivity of the machine tool, optimal cutting parameters have to be obtained. In order to find optimal cutting parameters, the genetic algorithm (GA has been used as an optimal solution finder. Optimization has to yield minimum machining time and minimum production cost, while considering technological and material constrains.

  16. Do Lumped-Parameter Models Provide the Correct Geometrical Damping?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars

    This paper concerns the formulation of lumped-parameter models for rigid footings on homogenous or stratified soil. Such models only contain a few degrees of freedom, which makes them ideal for inclusion in aero-elastic codes for wind turbines and other models applied to fast evaluation of struct......This paper concerns the formulation of lumped-parameter models for rigid footings on homogenous or stratified soil. Such models only contain a few degrees of freedom, which makes them ideal for inclusion in aero-elastic codes for wind turbines and other models applied to fast evaluation...... response during excitation and the geometrical damping related to free vibrations of a hexagonal footing. The optimal order of a lumped-parameter model is determined for each degree of freedom, i.e. horizontal and vertical translation as well as torsion and rocking. In particular, the necessity of coupling...... between horizontal sliding and rocking is discussed....

  17. A New Approach for Parameter Optimization in Land Surface Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Hongqi; GUO Weidong; SUN Guodong; ZHANG Yaocun; FU Congbin

    2011-01-01

    In this study,a new parameter optimization method was used to investigate the expansion of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) in a land surface model (LSM) using long-term enhanced field observations at Tongyn station in Jilin Province,China,combined with a sophisticated LSM (common land model,CoLM).Tongyu station is a reference site of the international Coordinated Energy and Water Cycle Observations Project (CEOP) that has studied semiarid regions that have undergone desertification,salination,and degradation since late 1960s.In this study,three key land-surface parameters,namely,soil color,proportion of sand or clay in soil,and leaf-area index were chosen as parameters to be optimized.Our study comprised three experiments:First,a single-parameter optimization was performed,while the second and third experiments performed triple- and six-parameter optinizations,respectively.Notable improvements in simulating sensible heat flux (SH),latent heat flux (LH),soil temperature (TS),and moisture (MS) at shallow layers were achieved using the optimized parameters.The multiple-parameter optimization experiments performed better than the single-parameter experminent.All results demonstrate that the CNOP method can be used to optimize expanded parameters in an LSM.Moreover,clear mathematical meaning,simple design structure,and rapid computability give this method great potential for further application to parameter optimization in LSMs.

  18. Parameter Estimation for a Computable General Equilibrium Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Robinson, Sherman; Tarp, Finn

    . Second, it permits incorporation of prior information on parameter values. Third, it can be applied in the absence of copious data. Finally, it supplies measures of the capacity of the model to reproduce the historical record and the statistical significance of parameter estimates. The method is applied...

  19. Estimating winter wheat phenological parameters: Implications for crop modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crop parameters, such as the timing of developmental events, are critical for accurate simulation results in crop simulation models, yet uncertainty often exists in determining the parameters. Factors contributing to the uncertainty include: a) sources of variation within a plant (i.e., within diffe...

  20. Incorporating Parameter Uncertainty in Bayesian Segmentation Models: Application to Hippocampal Subfield Volumetry

    OpenAIRE

    Iglesias, Juan Eugenio; Sabuncu, Mert Rory; Van Leemput, Koen

    2012-01-01

    Many successful segmentation algorithms are based on Bayesian models in which prior anatomical knowledge is combined with the available image information. However, these methods typically have many free parameters that are estimated to obtain point estimates only, whereas a faithful Bayesian analysis would also consider all possible alternate values these parameters may take. In this paper, we propose to incorporate the uncertainty of the free parameters in Bayesian segmentation models more a...

  1. Standard model parameters and the search for new physics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marciano, W.J.

    1988-04-01

    In these lectures, my aim is to present an up-to-date status report on the standard model and some key tests of electroweak unification. Within that context, I also discuss how and where hints of new physics may emerge. To accomplish those goals, I have organized my presentation as follows: I discuss the standard model parameters with particular emphasis on the gauge coupling constants and vector boson masses. Examples of new physics appendages are also briefly commented on. In addition, because these lectures are intended for students and thus somewhat pedagogical, I have included an appendix on dimensional regularization and a simple computational example that employs that technique. Next, I focus on weak charged current phenomenology. Precision tests of the standard model are described and up-to-date values for the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa (CKM) mixing matrix parameters are presented. Constraints implied by those tests for a 4th generation, supersymmetry, extra Z/prime/ bosons, and compositeness are also discussed. I discuss weak neutral current phenomenology and the extraction of sin/sup 2/ /theta//sub W/ from experiment. The results presented there are based on a recently completed global analysis of all existing data. I have chosen to concentrate that discussion on radiative corrections, the effect of a heavy top quark mass, and implications for grand unified theories (GUTS). The potential for further experimental progress is also commented on. I depart from the narrowest version of the standard model and discuss effects of neutrino masses and mixings. I have chosen to concentrate on oscillations, the Mikheyev-Smirnov- Wolfenstein (MSW) effect, and electromagnetic properties of neutrinos. On the latter topic, I will describe some recent work on resonant spin-flavor precession. Finally, I conclude with a prospectus on hopes for the future. 76 refs.

  2. Complexity, parameter sensitivity and parameter transferability in the modelling of floodplain inundation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, P. D.; Neal, J. C.; Fewtrell, T. J.

    2012-12-01

    In this we paper we consider two related questions. First, we address the issue of how much physical complexity is necessary in a model in order to simulate floodplain inundation to within validation data error. This is achieved through development of a single code/multiple physics hydraulic model (LISFLOOD-FP) where different degrees of complexity can be switched on or off. Different configurations of this code are applied to four benchmark test cases, and compared to the results of a number of industry standard models. Second we address the issue of how parameter sensitivity and transferability change with increasing complexity using numerical experiments with models of different physical and geometric intricacy. Hydraulic models are a good example system with which to address such generic modelling questions as: (1) they have a strong physical basis; (2) there is only one set of equations to solve; (3) they require only topography and boundary conditions as input data; and (4) they typically require only a single free parameter, namely boundary friction. In terms of complexity required we show that for the problem of sub-critical floodplain inundation a number of codes of different dimensionality and resolution can be found to fit uncertain model validation data equally well, and that in this situation Occam's razor emerges as a useful logic to guide model selection. We find also find that model skill usually improves more rapidly with increases in model spatial resolution than increases in physical complexity, and that standard approaches to testing hydraulic models against laboratory data or analytical solutions may fail to identify this important fact. Lastly, we find that in benchmark testing studies significant differences can exist between codes with identical numerical solution techniques as a result of auxiliary choices regarding the specifics of model implementation that are frequently unreported by code developers. As a consequence, making sound

  3. Short duration, perennial grasses in low rainfall sites in Montana: Deriving growth parameters and simulating with a process-based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rangeland grasses in the arid western U.S. must grow quickly, set seed, and senesce in a relatively short timeframe in order to survive and reproduce when the limited soil moisture is available. In addition, rangeland management in arid sites can benefit from process-based simulation tools to optim...

  4. Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkel, Brian J.

    2011-01-01

    We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of population growth, specifically logistic growth models and two-species competition models. We discuss student-evolved strategies and offer "Mathematica" code for a gradient search approach. We use historical (1930s) data from microbial studies of the Russian biologist,…

  5. Dynamic Modeling and Parameter Identification of Power Systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    @@ The generator, the excitation system, the steam turbine and speed governor, and the load are the so called four key models of power systems. Mathematical modeling and parameter identification for the four key models are of great importance as the basis for designing, operating, and analyzing power systems.

  6. Parameter Estimation for the Thurstone Case III Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackay, David B.; Chaiy, Seoil

    1982-01-01

    The ability of three estimation criteria to recover parameters of the Thurstone Case V and Case III models from comparative judgment data was investigated via Monte Carlo techniques. Significant differences in recovery are shown to exist. (Author/JKS)

  7. Parameters Identification of Photovoltaic Cells Based on Differential Evolution Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liao Hui

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available For the complex nonlinear model of photovoltaic cells, traditional evolution strategy is easy to fall into the local optimal and its identification time is too long when taking parameters identification, then the difference algorithm is proposed in this study, which is to solve the problems of parameter identification in photovoltaic cell model, where it is very difficult to achieve with other identification algorithms. In this method, the random data is selected as the initial generation; the successful evolution to the next generation is done through a certain strategy of difference algorithm, which can achieve the effective identification of control parameters. It is proved that the method has a good global optimization and the fast convergence ability, and the simulation results are shown that the differential evolution has high identification ability and it is an effective method to identify the parameters of photovoltaic cells, where the photovoltaic cells can be widely used in other places with these parameters.

  8. Variational methods to estimate terrestrial ecosystem model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delahaies, Sylvain; Roulstone, Ian

    2016-04-01

    Carbon is at the basis of the chemistry of life. Its ubiquity in the Earth system is the result of complex recycling processes. Present in the atmosphere in the form of carbon dioxide it is adsorbed by marine and terrestrial ecosystems and stored within living biomass and decaying organic matter. Then soil chemistry and a non negligible amount of time transform the dead matter into fossil fuels. Throughout this cycle, carbon dioxide is released in the atmosphere through respiration and combustion of fossils fuels. Model-data fusion techniques allow us to combine our understanding of these complex processes with an ever-growing amount of observational data to help improving models and predictions. The data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model is a simple box model simulating the carbon budget allocation for terrestrial ecosystems. Over the last decade several studies have demonstrated the relative merit of various inverse modelling strategies (MCMC, ENKF, 4DVAR) to estimate model parameters and initial carbon stocks for DALEC and to quantify the uncertainty in the predictions. Despite its simplicity, DALEC represents the basic processes at the heart of more sophisticated models of the carbon cycle. Using adjoint based methods we study inverse problems for DALEC with various data streams (8 days MODIS LAI, monthly MODIS LAI, NEE). The framework of constraint optimization allows us to incorporate ecological common sense into the variational framework. We use resolution matrices to study the nature of the inverse problems and to obtain data importance and information content for the different type of data. We study how varying the time step affect the solutions, and we show how "spin up" naturally improves the conditioning of the inverse problems.

  9. Building And Using A Data Base To Identify Parameters To Further Improve Diagnostic Performance On The Toshiba Computed Radiography System Model 201

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seeley, George W.; Roehrig, Hans; Mockbee, Brent; Hunter, Tim B.; Ovitt, Theron; Claypool, H. R.; Bielland, John C.; Scott, Anne; Yang, Peter; Dallas, William J.

    1987-01-01

    The digital imaging group at the University of Arizona Health Sciences Center Radiology Department is vigorously pursuing the development of a total digital radiology department (TDRD). One avenue of research being conducted is to define the needed resolutions and capabilities of TDRD systems. Parts of that effort are described in these proceedings and elsewhere. One of these investigations is to assess the general application of computed r adiography (CR) in clinical imaging. Specifically we are comparing images produced by the Toshiba computed radiography system (Model 201) to those produced by conventional imaging techniques. This paper describes one aspect of that work.

  10. Comparing spatial and temporal transferability of hydrological model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patil, Sopan D.; Stieglitz, Marc

    2015-06-01

    Operational use of hydrological models requires the transfer of calibrated parameters either in time (for streamflow forecasting) or space (for prediction at ungauged catchments) or both. Although the effects of spatial and temporal parameter transfer on catchment streamflow predictions have been well studied individually, a direct comparison of these approaches is much less documented. Here, we compare three different schemes of parameter transfer, viz., temporal, spatial, and spatiotemporal, using a spatially lumped hydrological model called EXP-HYDRO at 294 catchments across the continental United States. Results show that the temporal parameter transfer scheme performs best, with lowest decline in prediction performance (median decline of 4.2%) as measured using the Kling-Gupta efficiency metric. More interestingly, negligible difference in prediction performance is observed between the spatial and spatiotemporal parameter transfer schemes (median decline of 12.4% and 13.9% respectively). We further demonstrate that the superiority of temporal parameter transfer scheme is preserved even when: (1) spatial distance between donor and receiver catchments is reduced, or (2) temporal lag between calibration and validation periods is increased. Nonetheless, increase in the temporal lag between calibration and validation periods reduces the overall performance gap between the three parameter transfer schemes. Results suggest that spatiotemporal transfer of hydrological model parameters has the potential to be a viable option for climate change related hydrological studies, as envisioned in the "trading space for time" framework. However, further research is still needed to explore the relationship between spatial and temporal aspects of catchment hydrological variability.

  11. Study on Parameters Settings of Plane Axisymmetric Contact Model Based on ANSYS%基于ANSYS的平面轴对称接触模型参数设置研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    夏卫明; 骆桂林; 嵇宽斌

    2013-01-01

    基于ANSYS有限元软件,针对轴孔过盈配合接触模型中的平面应力轴对称模型与实体模型和横截面平面应力模型有限元计算的差异,着重研究了平面应力轴对称接触模型参数设置方法,主要研究了轴孔配合模型的几何过盈和间隙、接触单元实常数CNOF以及接触单元关键字KEYOPT (9)之间的相互作用关系,为读者在遇到类同的问题时提供参考.%Based on ANSYS,according to the FEA calculation results differences about shaft and hole interference fitting model between plane stress axisymmetric model to solid model and cross section plane stress model,the study on parameters settings in plane stress axisymmetric contact model was focused on.The interactions of geometric interference and gap,contact element real constant CNOF and contact element key option KEYOPT (9) of shaft and hole contact fitting model were studied.It provides reference for the readers in the similar problems.

  12. Parameter estimation in stochastic rainfall-runoff models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Harpa; Madsen, Henrik; Palsson, Olafur Petur

    2006-01-01

    the parameters, including the noise terms. The parameter estimation method is a maximum likelihood method (ML) where the likelihood function is evaluated using a Kalman filter technique. The ML method estimates the parameters in a prediction error settings, i.e. the sum of squared prediction error is minimized....... For a comparison the parameters are also estimated by an output error method, where the sum of squared simulation error is minimized. The former methodology is optimal for short-term prediction whereas the latter is optimal for simulations. Hence, depending on the purpose it is possible to select whether...... the parameter values are optimal for simulation or prediction. The data originates from Iceland and the model is designed for Icelandic conditions, including a snow routine for mountainous areas. The model demands only two input data series, precipitation and temperature and one output data series...

  13. Estimation of Model and Parameter Uncertainty For A Distributed Rainfall-runoff Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engeland, K.

    The distributed rainfall-runoff model Ecomag is applied as a regional model for nine catchments in the NOPEX area in Sweden. Ecomag calculates streamflow on a daily time resolution. The posterior distribution of the model parameters is conditioned on the observed streamflow in all nine catchments, and calculated using Bayesian statistics. The distribution is estimated by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The Bayesian method requires a definition of the likelihood of the parameters. Two alter- native formulations are used. The first formulation is a subjectively chosen objective function describing the goodness of fit between the simulated and observed streamflow as it is used in the GLUE framework. The second formulation is to use a more statis- tically correct likelihood function that describes the simulation errors. The simulation error is defined as the difference between log-transformed observed and simulated streamflows. A statistical model for the simulation errors is constructed. Some param- eters are dependent on the catchment, while others depend on climate. The statistical and the hydrological parameters are estimated simultaneously. Confidence intervals, due to the uncertainty of the Ecomag parameters, for the simulated streamflow are compared for the two likelihood functions. Confidence intervals based on the statis- tical model for the simulation errors are also calculated. The results indicate that the parameter uncertainty depends on the formulation of the likelihood function. The sub- jectively chosen likelihood function gives relatively wide confidence intervals whereas the 'statistical' likelihood function gives more narrow confidence intervals. The statis- tical model for the simulation errors indicates that the structural errors of the model are as least as important as the parameter uncertainty.

  14. Transformations among CE–CVM model parameters for multicomponent systems

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    B Nageswara Sarma; Shrikant Lele

    2005-06-01

    In the development of thermodynamic databases for multicomponent systems using the cluster expansion–cluster variation methods, we need to have a consistent procedure for expressing the model parameters (CECs) of a higher order system in terms of those of the lower order subsystems and to an independent set of parameters which exclusively represent interactions of the higher order systems. Such a procedure is presented in detail in this communication. Furthermore, the details of transformations required to express the model parameters in one basis from those defined in another basis for the same system are also presented.

  15. Steam turbine governor modeling and parameters testing for power system simulation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ying LI; Chufeng PENG; Zenghui YANG

    2009-01-01

    The theoretical modeling, parameters test and model correction for a steam turbine (ST) governor are discussed. A set of ST Governor system model for power system simulation is created based on this research. A power system simulation for an actual power grid accident is conducted using this new model and the comparison between the simulation and actual data show that the results are satisfactory.

  16. 基于Visual Studio的七参数坐标转换模型研究及实现%The Realization and Research of Seven-Parameter Coordinate Conversion Model Based on Visual Studio

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王艳华; 胡社荣; 孙成帅; 赵晋斌

    2012-01-01

    在分析了北京1954年坐标系统与西安1980坐标系统特点的基础上,介绍了基于Bursa-Wolf转换模型的七参数坐标转换的方法及过程,并在开发平台Visual Studio 2010上采用C#语言实现了转换程序。%Based on the analysis of Beijing 1954 coordinate system and Xi′an 1980 coordinate system,this paper introduces the method and process of the seven-parameter coordinate conversion based on Bursa-Wolf conversion model and implements the conversion program on Visual Studio 2010 platform using C# language.

  17. Numerical modeling of piezoelectric transducers using physical parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cappon, Hans; Keesman, Karel J

    2012-05-01

    Design of ultrasonic equipment is frequently facilitated with numerical models. These numerical models, however, need a calibration step, because usually not all characteristics of the materials used are known. Characterization of material properties combined with numerical simulations and experimental data can be used to acquire valid estimates of the material parameters. In our design application, a finite element (FE) model of an ultrasonic particle separator, driven by an ultrasonic transducer in thickness mode, is required. A limited set of material parameters for the piezoelectric transducer were obtained from the manufacturer, thus preserving prior physical knowledge to a large extent. The remaining unknown parameters were estimated from impedance analysis with a simple experimental setup combined with a numerical optimization routine using 2-D and 3-D FE models. Thus, a full set of physically interpretable material parameters was obtained for our specific purpose. The approach provides adequate accuracy of the estimates of the material parameters, near 1%. These parameter estimates will subsequently be applied in future design simulations, without the need to go through an entire series of characterization experiments. Finally, a sensitivity study showed that small variations of 1% in the main parameters caused changes near 1% in the eigenfrequency, but changes up to 7% in the admittance peak, thus influencing the efficiency of the system. Temperature will already cause these small variations in response; thus, a frequency control unit is required when actually manufacturing an efficient ultrasonic separation system.

  18. Parameter estimation method for improper fractional models and its application to molecular biological systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Li-Ping; Liu, Lizhi; Wu, Fang-Xiang

    2010-01-01

    Derived from biochemical principles, molecular biological systems can be described by a group of differential equations. Generally these differential equations contain fractional functions plus polynomials (which we call improper fractional model) as reaction rates. As a result, molecular biological systems are nonlinear in both parameters and states. It is well known that it is challenging to estimate parameters nonlinear in a model. However, in fractional functions both the denominator and numerator are linear in the parameters while polynomials are also linear in parameters. Based on this observation, we develop an iterative linear least squares method for estimating parameters in biological systems modeled by improper fractional functions. The basic idea is to transfer optimizing a nonlinear least squares objective function into iteratively solving a sequence of linear least squares problems. The developed method is applied to the estimation of parameters in a metabolism system. The simulation results show the superior performance of the proposed method for estimating parameters in such molecular biological systems.

  19. Nearest-neighbor sp3s* tight-binding parameters based on the hybrid quasi-particle self-consistent GW method verified by modeling of type-II superlattices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawamura, Akitaka; Otsuka, Jun; Kato, Takashi; Kotani, Takao

    2017-06-01

    We report the determination of parameters for the nearest-neighbor sp3s* tight-binding (TB) model for GaP, GaAs, GaSb, InP, InAs, and InSb at 0, 77, and 300 K based on the hybrid quasi-particle self-consistent GW (QSGW) calculation and their application to a type II (InAs)/(GaSb) superlattice. The effects of finite temperature have been incorporated empirically by adjusting the parameter for blending the exchange-correlation terms of the pure QSGW method and local density approximation, in addition to the usage of experimental lattice parameters. As expected, the TB band gap shrinks with temperature and asymptotically with superlattice period when it is large. In addition, a bell curve in the band gap in the case of small superlattice period and slight and remarkable anisotropy in effective masses of electron and hole, both predicted by the hybrid QSGW method, respectively, are reproduced.

  20. A Comparative Study Based on the Least Square Parameter Identification Method for State of Charge Estimation of a LiFePO4 Battery Pack Using Three Model-Based Algorithms for Electric Vehicles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taimoor Zahid

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Battery energy storage management for electric vehicles (EV and hybrid EV is the most critical and enabling technology since the dawn of electric vehicle commercialization. A battery system is a complex electrochemical phenomenon whose performance degrades with age and the existence of varying material design. Moreover, it is very tedious and computationally very complex to monitor and control the internal state of a battery’s electrochemical systems. For Thevenin battery model we established a state-space model which had the advantage of simplicity and could be easily implemented and then applied the least square method to identify the battery model parameters. However, accurate state of charge (SoC estimation of a battery, which depends not only on the battery model but also on highly accurate and efficient algorithms, is considered one of the most vital and critical issue for the energy management and power distribution control of EV. In this paper three different estimation methods, i.e., extended Kalman filter (EKF, particle filter (PF and unscented Kalman Filter (UKF, are presented to estimate the SoC of LiFePO4 batteries for an electric vehicle. Battery’s experimental data, current and voltage, are analyzed to identify the Thevenin equivalent model parameters. Using different open circuit voltages the SoC is estimated and compared with respect to the estimation accuracy and initialization error recovery. The experimental results showed that these online SoC estimation methods in combination with different open circuit voltage-state of charge (OCV-SoC curves can effectively limit the error, thus guaranteeing the accuracy and robustness.

  1. Proccess Parameters Optimization of the Finished Product Width Model Based on Quantum Genetic Algorithm%基于量子遗传算法的成品门幅模型参数优化设计

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郜琳琳; 金福江; 吴温龙

    2012-01-01

    In order to solve the key technical problem regarding to the difficulty to design the parameters affecting the finished fabric width quantitatively in heat setting process, this paper puts forward the Quantum Genetic Algorithm (Quantum Genetic Algorithm, QGA) that is used to finish the process parameters optimization design of the product door model. First, we establish the optimization model, and then use quantum genetic algorithm based on this model to realize precise and quantitative design of parameters affecting the finished width. We process the elastic cloth by using the process parameters which are obtained by the method in the paper. The deviation in weight, width between the product, and user required index is less than 0. 1% , which can meet the actual production requirements fully. At the same time in the paper we can know that quantum genetic algorithm is better than genetic algorithm in optimum design of process parameters in comparison when the iterative population increase gradually.%为了解决热定型中影响成品织物门幅的工艺参数难以定量设计的关键技术难题.提出了将量子遗传算法用于成品门幅模型工艺参数优化设计中.建立优化模型,基于该模型采用量子遗传算法,实现了影响成品门幅的工艺参数精确定量设计.用该方法得到的工艺参数加工弹力布,生产成品的门幅与用户要求指标的偏差小于0.1%,完全满足实际生产要求.同时将量子遗传算法与遗传算法在工艺参数的优化设计中进行比较,得出当迭代种群逐渐增大时,量子遗传算法在工艺参数的优化设计中的优势更加明显.

  2. MODELING OF FUEL SPRAY CHARACTERISTICS AND DIESEL COMBUSTION CHAMBER PARAMETERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. M. Kukharonak

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The computer model for coordination of fuel spray characteristics with diesel combustion chamber parameters has been created in the paper.  The model allows to observe fuel sprays  develоpment in diesel cylinder at any moment of injection, to calculate characteristics of fuel sprays with due account of a shape and dimensions of a combustion c