WorldWideScience

Sample records for model parameterization perspective

  1. Parameterized Linear Longitudinal Airship Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulczycki, Eric; Elfes, Alberto; Bayard, David; Quadrelli, Marco; Johnson, Joseph

    2010-01-01

    A parameterized linear mathematical model of the longitudinal dynamics of an airship is undergoing development. This model is intended to be used in designing control systems for future airships that would operate in the atmospheres of Earth and remote planets. Heretofore, the development of linearized models of the longitudinal dynamics of airships has been costly in that it has been necessary to perform extensive flight testing and to use system-identification techniques to construct models that fit the flight-test data. The present model is a generic one that can be relatively easily specialized to approximate the dynamics of specific airships at specific operating points, without need for further system identification, and with significantly less flight testing. The approach taken in the present development is to merge the linearized dynamical equations of an airship with techniques for estimation of aircraft stability derivatives, and to thereby make it possible to construct a linearized dynamical model of the longitudinal dynamics of a specific airship from geometric and aerodynamic data pertaining to that airship. (It is also planned to develop a model of the lateral dynamics by use of the same methods.) All of the aerodynamic data needed to construct the model of a specific airship can be obtained from wind-tunnel testing and computational fluid dynamics

  2. Infrared radiation parameterizations in numerical climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Ming-Dah; Kratz, David P.; Ridgway, William

    1991-01-01

    This study presents various approaches to parameterizing the broadband transmission functions for utilization in numerical climate models. One-parameter scaling is applied to approximate a nonhomogeneous path with an equivalent homogeneous path, and the diffuse transmittances are either interpolated from precomputed tables or fit by analytical functions. Two-parameter scaling is applied to parameterizing the carbon dioxide and ozone transmission functions in both the lower and middle atmosphere. Parameterizations are given for the nitrous oxide and methane diffuse transmission functions.

  3. Cumulus parameterizations in chemical transport models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahowald, Natalie M.; Rasch, Philip J.; Prinn, Ronald G.

    1995-12-01

    Global three-dimensional chemical transport models (CTMs) are valuable tools for studying processes controlling the distribution of trace constituents in the atmosphere. A major uncertainty in these models is the subgrid-scale parametrization of transport by cumulus convection. This study seeks to define the range of behavior of moist convective schemes and point toward more reliable formulations for inclusion in chemical transport models. The emphasis is on deriving convective transport from meteorological data sets (such as those from the forecast centers) which do not routinely include convective mass fluxes. Seven moist convective parameterizations are compared in a column model to examine the sensitivity of the vertical profile of trace gases to the parameterization used in a global chemical transport model. The moist convective schemes examined are the Emanuel scheme [Emanuel, 1991], the Feichter-Crutzen scheme [Feichter and Crutzen, 1990], the inverse thermodynamic scheme (described in this paper), two versions of a scheme suggested by Hack [Hack, 1994], and two versions of a scheme suggested by Tiedtke (one following the formulation used in the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting) and ECHAM3 (European Centre and Hamburg Max-Planck-Institut) models [Tiedtke, 1989], and one formulated as in the TM2 (Transport Model-2) model (M. Heimann, personal communication, 1992). These convective schemes vary in the closure used to derive the mass fluxes, as well as the cloud model formulation, giving a broad range of results. In addition, two boundary layer schemes are compared: a state-of-the-art nonlocal boundary layer scheme [Holtslag and Boville, 1993] and a simple adiabatic mixing scheme described in this paper. Three tests are used to compare the moist convective schemes against observations. Although the tests conducted here cannot conclusively show that one parameterization is better than the others, the tests are a good measure of the

  4. Parameterized combinatorial geometry modeling in Moritz

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Riper, K.A.

    2005-01-01

    We describe the use of named variables as surface and solid body coefficients in the Moritz geometry editing program. Variables can also be used as material numbers, cell densities, and transformation values. A variable is defined as a constant or an arithmetic combination of constants and other variables. A variable reference, such as in a surface coefficient, can be a single variable or an expression containing variables and constants. Moritz can read and write geometry models in MCNP and ITS ACCEPT format; support for other codes will be added. The geometry can be saved with either the variables in place, for modifying the models in Moritz, or with the variables evaluated for use in the transport codes. A program window shows a list of variables and provides fields for editing them. Surface coefficients and other values that use a variable reference are shown in a distinctive style on object property dialogs; associated buttons show fields for editing the reference. We discuss our use of variables in defining geometry models for shielding studies in PET clinics. When a model is parameterized through the use of variables, changes such as room dimensions, shielding layer widths, and cell compositions can be quickly achieved by changing a few numbers without requiring knowledge of the input syntax for the transport code or the tedious and error prone work of recalculating many surface or solid body coefficients. (author)

  5. Carbody structural lightweighting based on implicit parameterized model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xin; Ma, Fangwu; Wang, Dengfeng; Xie, Chen

    2014-05-01

    Most of recent research on carbody lightweighting has focused on substitute material and new processing technologies rather than structures. However, new materials and processing techniques inevitably lead to higher costs. Also, material substitution and processing lightweighting have to be realized through body structural profiles and locations. In the huge conventional workload of lightweight optimization, model modifications involve heavy manual work, and it always leads to a large number of iteration calculations. As a new technique in carbody lightweighting, the implicit parameterization is used to optimize the carbody structure to improve the materials utilization rate in this paper. The implicit parameterized structural modeling enables the use of automatic modification and rapid multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO) in carbody structure, which is impossible in the traditional structure finite element method (FEM) without parameterization. The structural SFE parameterized model is built in accordance with the car structural FE model in concept development stage, and it is validated by some structural performance data. The validated SFE structural parameterized model can be used to generate rapidly and automatically FE model and evaluate different design variables group in the integrated MDO loop. The lightweighting result of body-in-white (BIW) after the optimization rounds reveals that the implicit parameterized model makes automatic MDO feasible and can significantly improve the computational efficiency of carbody structural lightweighting. This paper proposes the integrated method of implicit parameterized model and MDO, which has the obvious practical advantage and industrial significance in the carbody structural lightweighting design.

  6. Automatic Generation of Symbolic Model for Parameterized Synchronous Systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wei-Wen Xu

    2004-01-01

    With the purpose of making the verification of parameterized system more general and easier, in this paper, a new and intuitive language PSL (Parameterized-system Specification Language) is proposed to specify a class of parameterized synchronous systems. From a PSL script, an automatic method is proposed to generate a constraint-based symbolic model. The model can concisely symbolically represent the collections of global states by counting the number of processes in a given state. Moreover, a theorem has been proved that there is a simulation relation between the original system and its symbolic model. Since the abstract and symbolic techniques are exploited in the symbolic model, state-explosion problem in traditional verification methods is efficiently avoided. Based on the proposed symbolic model, a reachability analysis procedure is implemented using ANSI C++ on UNIX platform. Thus, a complete tool for verifying the parameterized synchronous systems is obtained and tested for some cases. The experimental results show that the method is satisfactory.

  7. Spectral cumulus parameterization based on cloud-resolving model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baba, Yuya

    2018-02-01

    We have developed a spectral cumulus parameterization using a cloud-resolving model. This includes a new parameterization of the entrainment rate which was derived from analysis of the cloud properties obtained from the cloud-resolving model simulation and was valid for both shallow and deep convection. The new scheme was examined in a single-column model experiment and compared with the existing parameterization of Gregory (2001, Q J R Meteorol Soc 127:53-72) (GR scheme). The results showed that the GR scheme simulated more shallow and diluted convection than the new scheme. To further validate the physical performance of the parameterizations, Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) experiments were performed, and the results were compared with reanalysis data. The new scheme performed better than the GR scheme in terms of mean state and variability of atmospheric circulation, i.e., the new scheme improved positive bias of precipitation in western Pacific region, and improved positive bias of outgoing shortwave radiation over the ocean. The new scheme also simulated better features of convectively coupled equatorial waves and Madden-Julian oscillation. These improvements were found to be derived from the modification of parameterization for the entrainment rate, i.e., the proposed parameterization suppressed excessive increase of entrainment, thus suppressing excessive increase of low-level clouds.

  8. Impact of Physics Parameterization Ordering in a Global Atmosphere Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donahue, Aaron S.; Caldwell, Peter M.

    2018-02-01

    Because weather and climate models must capture a wide variety of spatial and temporal scales, they rely heavily on parameterizations of subgrid-scale processes. The goal of this study is to demonstrate that the assumptions used to couple these parameterizations have an important effect on the climate of version 0 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) General Circulation Model (GCM), a close relative of version 1 of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1). Like most GCMs, parameterizations in E3SM are sequentially split in the sense that parameterizations are called one after another with each subsequent process feeling the effect of the preceding processes. This coupling strategy is noncommutative in the sense that the order in which processes are called impacts the solution. By examining a suite of 24 simulations with deep convection, shallow convection, macrophysics/microphysics, and radiation parameterizations reordered, process order is shown to have a big impact on predicted climate. In particular, reordering of processes induces differences in net climate feedback that are as big as the intermodel spread in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. One reason why process ordering has such a large impact is that the effect of each process is influenced by the processes preceding it. Where output is written is therefore an important control on apparent model behavior. Application of k-means clustering demonstrates that the positioning of macro/microphysics and shallow convection plays a critical role on the model solution.

  9. Parameterizing the Spatial Markov Model From Breakthrough Curve Data Alone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherman, Thomas; Fakhari, Abbas; Miller, Savannah; Singha, Kamini; Bolster, Diogo

    2017-12-01

    The spatial Markov model (SMM) is an upscaled Lagrangian model that effectively captures anomalous transport across a diverse range of hydrologic systems. The distinct feature of the SMM relative to other random walk models is that successive steps are correlated. To date, with some notable exceptions, the model has primarily been applied to data from high-resolution numerical simulations and correlation effects have been measured from simulated particle trajectories. In real systems such knowledge is practically unattainable and the best one might hope for is breakthrough curves (BTCs) at successive downstream locations. We introduce a novel methodology to quantify velocity correlation from BTC data alone. By discretizing two measured BTCs into a set of arrival times and developing an inverse model, we estimate velocity correlation, thereby enabling parameterization of the SMM in studies where detailed Lagrangian velocity statistics are unavailable. The proposed methodology is applied to two synthetic numerical problems, where we measure all details and thus test the veracity of the approach by comparison of estimated parameters with known simulated values. Our results suggest that our estimated transition probabilities agree with simulated values and using the SMM with this estimated parameterization accurately predicts BTCs downstream. Our methodology naturally allows for estimates of uncertainty by calculating lower and upper bounds of velocity correlation, enabling prediction of a range of BTCs. The measured BTCs fall within the range of predicted BTCs. This novel method to parameterize the SMM from BTC data alone is quite parsimonious, thereby widening the SMM's practical applicability.

  10. Parameterization of phase change of water in a mesoscale model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levkov, L; Eppel, D; Grassl, H

    1987-01-01

    A parameterization scheme of phase change of water is suggested to be used in the 3-D numerical nonhydrostatic model GESIMA. The microphysical formulation follows the so-called bulk technique. With this procedure the net production rates in the balance equations for water and potential temperature are given both for liquid and ice-phase. Convectively stable as well as convectively unstable mesoscale systems are considered. With 2 figs..

  11. Air quality modeling: evaluation of chemical and meteorological parameterizations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Youngseob

    2011-01-01

    The influence of chemical mechanisms and meteorological parameterizations on pollutant concentrations calculated with an air quality model is studied. The influence of the differences between two gas-phase chemical mechanisms on the formation of ozone and aerosols in Europe is low on average. For ozone, the large local differences are mainly due to the uncertainty associated with the kinetics of nitrogen monoxide (NO) oxidation reactions on the one hand and the representation of different pathways for the oxidation of aromatic compounds on the other hand. The aerosol concentrations are mainly influenced by the selection of all major precursors of secondary aerosols and the explicit treatment of chemical regimes corresponding to the nitrogen oxides (NO x ) levels. The influence of the meteorological parameterizations on the concentrations of aerosols and their vertical distribution is evaluated over the Paris region in France by comparison to lidar data. The influence of the parameterization of the dynamics in the atmospheric boundary layer is important; however, it is the use of an urban canopy model that improves significantly the modeling of the pollutant vertical distribution (author) [fr

  12. Model parameterization as method for data analysis in dendroecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tychkov, Ivan; Shishov, Vladimir; Popkova, Margarita

    2017-04-01

    There is no argue in usefulness of process-based models in ecological studies. Only limitations is how developed algorithm of model and how it will be applied for research. Simulation of tree-ring growth based on climate provides valuable information of tree-ring growth response on different environmental conditions, but also shares light on species-specifics of tree-ring growth process. Visual parameterization of the Vaganov-Shashkin model, allows to estimate non-linear response of tree-ring growth based on daily climate data: daily temperature, estimated day light and soil moisture. Previous using of the VS-Oscilloscope (a software tool of the visual parameterization) shows a good ability to recreate unique patterns of tree-ring growth for coniferous species in Siberian Russia, USA, China, Mediterranean Spain and Tunisia. But using of the models mostly is one-sided to better understand different tree growth processes, opposite to statistical methods of analysis (e.g. Generalized Linear Models, Mixed Models, Structural Equations.) which can be used for reconstruction and forecast. Usually the models are used either for checking of new hypothesis or quantitative assessment of physiological tree growth data to reveal a growth process mechanisms, while statistical methods used for data mining assessment and as a study tool itself. The high sensitivity of the model's VS-parameters reflects the ability of the model to simulate tree-ring growth and evaluates value of limiting growth climate factors. Precise parameterization of VS-Oscilloscope provides valuable information about growth processes of trees and under what conditions these processes occur (e.g. day of growth season onset, length of season, value of minimal/maximum temperature for tree-ring growth, formation of wide or narrow rings etc.). The work was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (RSF # 14-14-00219)

  13. Parameterizing the Spatial Markov Model from Breakthrough Curve Data Alone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherman, T.; Bolster, D.; Fakhari, A.; Miller, S.; Singha, K.

    2017-12-01

    The spatial Markov model (SMM) uses a correlated random walk and has been shown to effectively capture anomalous transport in porous media systems; in the SMM, particles' future trajectories are correlated to their current velocity. It is common practice to use a priori Lagrangian velocity statistics obtained from high resolution simulations to determine a distribution of transition probabilities (correlation) between velocity classes that govern predicted transport behavior; however, this approach is computationally cumbersome. Here, we introduce a methodology to quantify velocity correlation from Breakthrough (BTC) curve data alone; discretizing two measured BTCs into a set of arrival times and reverse engineering the rules of the SMM allows for prediction of velocity correlation, thereby enabling parameterization of the SMM in studies where Lagrangian velocity statistics are not available. The introduced methodology is applied to estimate velocity correlation from BTCs measured in high resolution simulations, thus allowing for a comparison of estimated parameters with known simulated values. Results show 1) estimated transition probabilities agree with simulated values and 2) using the SMM with estimated parameterization accurately predicts BTCs downstream. Additionally, we include uncertainty measurements by calculating lower and upper estimates of velocity correlation, which allow for prediction of a range of BTCs. The simulated BTCs fall in the range of predicted BTCs. This research proposes a novel method to parameterize the SMM from BTC data alone, thereby reducing the SMM's computational costs and widening its applicability.

  14. Understanding and Improving Ocean Mixing Parameterizations for modeling Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, A. M.; Fells, J.; Clarke, J.; Cheng, Y.; Canuto, V.; Dubovikov, M. S.

    2017-12-01

    Climate is vital. Earth is only habitable due to the atmosphere&oceans' distribution of energy. Our Greenhouse Gas emissions shift overall the balance between absorbed and emitted radiation causing Global Warming. How much of these emissions are stored in the ocean vs. entering the atmosphere to cause warming and how the extra heat is distributed depends on atmosphere&ocean dynamics, which we must understand to know risks of both progressive Climate Change and Climate Variability which affect us all in many ways including extreme weather, floods, droughts, sea-level rise and ecosystem disruption. Citizens must be informed to make decisions such as "business as usual" vs. mitigating emissions to avert catastrophe. Simulations of Climate Change provide needed knowledge but in turn need reliable parameterizations of key physical processes, including ocean mixing, which greatly impacts transport&storage of heat and dissolved CO2. The turbulence group at NASA-GISS seeks to use physical theory to improve parameterizations of ocean mixing, including smallscale convective, shear driven, double diffusive, internal wave and tidal driven vertical mixing, as well as mixing by submesoscale eddies, and lateral mixing along isopycnals by mesoscale eddies. Medgar Evers undergraduates aid NASA research while learning climate science and developing computer&math skills. We write our own programs in MATLAB and FORTRAN to visualize and process output of ocean simulations including producing statistics to help judge impacts of different parameterizations on fidelity in reproducing realistic temperatures&salinities, diffusivities and turbulent power. The results can help upgrade the parameterizations. Students are introduced to complex system modeling and gain deeper appreciation of climate science and programming skills, while furthering climate science. We are incorporating climate projects into the Medgar Evers college curriculum. The PI is both a member of the turbulence group at

  15. A stratiform cloud parameterization for General Circulation Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghan, S.J.; Leung, L.R.; Chuang, C.C.; Penner, J.E.; McCaa, J.

    1994-01-01

    The crude treatment of clouds in General Circulation Models (GCMs) is widely recognized as a major limitation in the application of these models to predictions of global climate change. The purpose of this project is to develop a paxameterization for stratiform clouds in GCMs that expresses stratiform clouds in terms of bulk microphysical properties and their subgrid variability. In this parameterization, precipitating cloud species are distinguished from non-precipitating species, and the liquid phase is distinguished from the ice phase. The size of the non-precipitating cloud particles (which influences both the cloud radiative properties and the conversion of non-precipitating cloud species to precipitating species) is determined by predicting both the mass and number concentrations of each species

  16. A stratiform cloud parameterization for general circulation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghan, S.J.; Leung, L.R.; Chuang, C.C.; Penner, J.E.; McCaa, J.

    1994-01-01

    The crude treatment of clouds in general circulation models (GCMs) is widely recognized as a major limitation in applying these models to predictions of global climate change. The purpose of this project is to develop in GCMs a stratiform cloud parameterization that expresses clouds in terms of bulk microphysical properties and their subgrid variability. Various clouds variables and their interactions are summarized. Precipitating cloud species are distinguished from non-precipitating species, and the liquid phase is distinguished from the ice phase. The size of the non-precipitating cloud particles (which influences both the cloud radiative properties and the conversion of non-precipitating cloud species to precipitating species) is determined by predicting both the mass and number concentrations of each species

  17. A shallow convection parameterization for the non-hydrostatic MM5 mesoscale model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seaman, N.L.; Kain, J.S.; Deng, A. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States)

    1996-04-01

    A shallow convection parameterization suitable for the Pennsylvannia State University (PSU)/National Center for Atmospheric Research nonhydrostatic mesoscale model (MM5) is being developed at PSU. The parameterization is based on parcel perturbation theory developed in conjunction with a 1-D Mellor Yamada 1.5-order planetary boundary layer scheme and the Kain-Fritsch deep convection model.

  18. Impact of model structure and parameterization on Penman-Monteith type evaporation models

    KAUST Repository

    Ershadi, A.; McCabe, Matthew; Evans, J.P.; Wood, E.F.

    2015-01-01

    Overall, the results illustrate the sensitivity of Penman-Monteith type models to model structure, parameterization choice and biome type. A particular challenge in flux estimation relates to developing robust and broadly applicable model formulations. With many choices available for use, providing guidance on the most appropriate scheme to employ is required to advance approaches for routine global scale flux estimates, undertake hydrometeorological assessments or develop hydrological forecasting tools, amongst many other applications. In such cases, a multi-model ensemble or biome-specific tiled evaporation product may be an appropriate solution, given the inherent variability in model and parameterization choice that is observed within single product estimates.

  19. Frozen soil parameterization in a distributed biosphere hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Wang

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, a frozen soil parameterization has been modified and incorporated into a distributed biosphere hydrological model (WEB-DHM. The WEB-DHM with the frozen scheme was then rigorously evaluated in a small cold area, the Binngou watershed, against the in-situ observations from the WATER (Watershed Allied Telemetry Experimental Research. First, by using the original WEB-DHM without the frozen scheme, the land surface parameters and two van Genuchten parameters were optimized using the observed surface radiation fluxes and the soil moistures at upper layers (5, 10 and 20 cm depths at the DY station in July. Second, by using the WEB-DHM with the frozen scheme, two frozen soil parameters were calibrated using the observed soil temperature at 5 cm depth at the DY station from 21 November 2007 to 20 April 2008; while the other soil hydraulic parameters were optimized by the calibration of the discharges at the basin outlet in July and August that covers the annual largest flood peak in 2008. With these calibrated parameters, the WEB-DHM with the frozen scheme was then used for a yearlong validation from 21 November 2007 to 20 November 2008. Results showed that the WEB-DHM with the frozen scheme has given much better performance than the WEB-DHM without the frozen scheme, in the simulations of soil moisture profile at the cold regions catchment and the discharges at the basin outlet in the yearlong simulation.

  20. Parameterization of a ruminant model of phosphorus digestion and metabolism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, X; Knowlton, K F; Hanigan, M D

    2015-10-01

    The objective of the current work was to parameterize the digestive elements of the model of Hill et al. (2008) using data collected from animals that were ruminally, duodenally, and ileally cannulated, thereby providing a better understanding of the digestion and metabolism of P fractions in growing and lactating cattle. The model of Hill et al. (2008) was fitted and evaluated for adequacy using the data from 6 animal studies. We hypothesized that sufficient data would be available to estimate P digestion and metabolism parameters and that these parameters would be sufficient to derive P bioavailabilities of a range of feed ingredients. Inputs to the model were dry matter intake; total feed P concentration (fPtFd); phytate (Pp), organic (Po), and inorganic (Pi) P as fractions of total P (fPpPt, fPoPt, fPiPt); microbial growth; amount of Pi and Pp infused into the omasum or ileum; milk yield; and BW. The available data were sufficient to derive all model parameters of interest. The final model predicted that given 75 g/d of total P input, the total-tract digestibility of P was 40.8%, Pp digestibility in the rumen was 92.4%, and in the total-tract was 94.7%. Blood P recycling to the rumen was a major source of Pi flow into the small intestine, and the primary route of excretion. A large proportion of Pi flowing to the small intestine was absorbed; however, additional Pi was absorbed from the large intestine (3.15%). Absorption of Pi from the small intestine was regulated, and given the large flux of salivary P recycling, the effective fractional small intestine absorption of available P derived from the diet was 41.6% at requirements. Milk synthesis used 16% of total absorbed P, and less than 1% was excreted in urine. The resulting model could be used to derive P bioavailabilities of commonly used feedstuffs in cattle production. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Assessing the performance of wave breaking parameterizations in shallow waters in spectral wave models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Shangfei; Sheng, Jinyu

    2017-12-01

    Depth-induced wave breaking is the primary dissipation mechanism for ocean surface waves in shallow waters. Different parametrizations were developed for parameterizing depth-induced wave breaking process in ocean surface wave models. The performance of six commonly-used parameterizations in simulating significant wave heights (SWHs) is assessed in this study. The main differences between these six parameterizations are representations of the breaker index and the fraction of breaking waves. Laboratory and field observations consisting of 882 cases from 14 sources of published observational data are used in the assessment. We demonstrate that the six parameterizations have reasonable performance in parameterizing depth-induced wave breaking in shallow waters, but with their own limitations and drawbacks. The widely-used parameterization suggested by Battjes and Janssen (1978, BJ78) has a drawback of underpredicting the SWHs in the locally-generated wave conditions and overpredicting in the remotely-generated wave conditions over flat bottoms. The drawback of BJ78 was addressed by a parameterization suggested by Salmon et al. (2015, SA15). But SA15 had relatively larger errors in SWHs over sloping bottoms than BJ78. We follow SA15 and propose a new parameterization with a dependence of the breaker index on the normalized water depth in deep waters similar to SA15. In shallow waters, the breaker index of the new parameterization has a nonlinear dependence on the local bottom slope rather than the linear dependence used in SA15. Overall, this new parameterization has the best performance with an average scatter index of ∼8.2% in comparison with the three best performing existing parameterizations with the average scatter index between 9.2% and 13.6%.

  2. Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Biofuel Crops and Parameterization in the EPIC Biogeochemical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    This presentation describes year 1 field measurements of N2O fluxes and crop yields which are used to parameterize the EPIC biogeochemical model for the corresponding field site. Initial model simulations are also presented.

  3. Tool-driven Design and Automated Parameterization for Real-time Generic Drivetrain Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schwarz Christina

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Real-time dynamic drivetrain modeling approaches have a great potential for development cost reduction in the automotive industry. Even though real-time drivetrain models are available, these solutions are specific to single transmission topologies. In this paper an environment for parameterization of a solution is proposed based on a generic method applicable to all types of gear transmission topologies. This enables tool-guided modeling by non- experts in the fields of mechanic engineering and control theory leading to reduced development and testing efforts. The approach is demonstrated for an exemplary automatic transmission using the environment for automated parameterization. Finally, the parameterization is validated via vehicle measurement data.

  4. Impact of model structure and parameterization on Penman-Monteith type evaporation models

    KAUST Repository

    Ershadi, A.

    2015-04-12

    The impact of model structure and parameterization on the estimation of evaporation is investigated across a range of Penman-Monteith type models. To examine the role of model structure on flux retrievals, three different retrieval schemes are compared. The schemes include a traditional single-source Penman-Monteith model (Monteith, 1965), a two-layer model based on Shuttleworth and Wallace (1985) and a three-source model based on Mu et al. (2011). To assess the impact of parameterization choice on model performance, a number of commonly used formulations for aerodynamic and surface resistances were substituted into the different formulations. Model response to these changes was evaluated against data from twenty globally distributed FLUXNET towers, representing a cross-section of biomes that include grassland, cropland, shrubland, evergreen needleleaf forest and deciduous broadleaf forest. Scenarios based on 14 different combinations of model structure and parameterization were ranked based on their mean value of Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency. Results illustrated considerable variability in model performance both within and between biome types. Indeed, no single model consistently outperformed any other when considered across all biomes. For instance, in grassland and shrubland sites, the single-source Penman-Monteith model performed the best. In croplands it was the three-source Mu model, while for evergreen needleleaf and deciduous broadleaf forests, the Shuttleworth-Wallace model rated highest. Interestingly, these top ranked scenarios all shared the simple lookup-table based surface resistance parameterization of Mu et al. (2011), while a more complex Jarvis multiplicative method for surface resistance produced lower ranked simulations. The highly ranked scenarios mostly employed a version of the Thom (1975) formulation for aerodynamic resistance that incorporated dynamic values of roughness parameters. This was true for all cases except over deciduous broadleaf

  5. Identifiability of Model Properties in Over-Parameterized Model Classes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred

    2013-01-01

    Classical learning theory is based on a tight linkage between hypothesis space (a class of function on a domain X), data space (function-value examples (x, f(x))), and the space of queries for the learned model (predicting function values for new examples x). However, in many learning scenarios t...

  6. Single-Column Modeling, GCM Parameterizations and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somerville, R.C.J.; Iacobellis, S.F.

    2005-01-01

    Our overall goal is identical to that of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program: the development of new and improved parameterizations of cloud-radiation effects and related processes, using ARM data at all three ARM sites, and the implementation and testing of these parameterizations in global and regional models. To test recently developed prognostic parameterizations based on detailed cloud microphysics, we have first compared single-column model (SCM) output with ARM observations at the Southern Great Plains (SGP), North Slope of Alaska (NSA) and Topical Western Pacific (TWP) sites. We focus on the predicted cloud amounts and on a suite of radiative quantities strongly dependent on clouds, such as downwelling surface shortwave radiation. Our results demonstrate the superiority of parameterizations based on comprehensive treatments of cloud microphysics and cloud-radiative interactions. At the SGP and NSA sites, the SCM results simulate the ARM measurements well and are demonstrably more realistic than typical parameterizations found in conventional operational forecasting models. At the TWP site, the model performance depends strongly on details of the scheme, and the results of our diagnostic tests suggest ways to develop improved parameterizations better suited to simulating cloud-radiation interactions in the tropics generally. These advances have made it possible to take the next step and build on this progress, by incorporating our parameterization schemes in state-of-the-art 3D atmospheric models, and diagnosing and evaluating the results using independent data. Because the improved cloud-radiation results have been obtained largely via implementing detailed and physically comprehensive cloud microphysics, we anticipate that improved predictions of hydrologic cycle components, and hence of precipitation, may also be achievable. We are currently testing the performance of our ARM-based parameterizations in state-of-the--art global and regional

  7. A Stochastic Lagrangian Basis for a Probabilistic Parameterization of Moisture Condensation in Eulerian Models

    OpenAIRE

    Tsang, Yue-Kin; Vallis, Geoffrey K.

    2018-01-01

    In this paper we describe the construction of an efficient probabilistic parameterization that could be used in a coarse-resolution numerical model in which the variation of moisture is not properly resolved. An Eulerian model using a coarse-grained field on a grid cannot properly resolve regions of saturation---in which condensation occurs---that are smaller than the grid boxes. Thus, in the absence of a parameterization scheme, either the grid box must become saturated or condensation will ...

  8. Global model comparison of heterogeneous ice nucleation parameterizations in mixed phase clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun, Yuxing; Penner, Joyce E.

    2012-04-01

    A new aerosol-dependent mixed phase cloud parameterization for deposition/condensation/immersion (DCI) ice nucleation and one for contact freezing are compared to the original formulations in a coupled general circulation model and aerosol transport model. The present-day cloud liquid and ice water fields and cloud radiative forcing are analyzed and compared to observations. The new DCI freezing parameterization changes the spatial distribution of the cloud water field. Significant changes are found in the cloud ice water fraction and in the middle cloud fractions. The new DCI freezing parameterization predicts less ice water path (IWP) than the original formulation, especially in the Southern Hemisphere. The smaller IWP leads to a less efficient Bergeron-Findeisen process resulting in a larger liquid water path, shortwave cloud forcing, and longwave cloud forcing. It is found that contact freezing parameterizations have a greater impact on the cloud water field and radiative forcing than the two DCI freezing parameterizations that we compared. The net solar flux at top of atmosphere and net longwave flux at the top of the atmosphere change by up to 8.73 and 3.52 W m-2, respectively, due to the use of different DCI and contact freezing parameterizations in mixed phase clouds. The total climate forcing from anthropogenic black carbon/organic matter in mixed phase clouds is estimated to be 0.16-0.93 W m-2using the aerosol-dependent parameterizations. A sensitivity test with contact ice nuclei concentration in the original parameterization fit to that recommended by Young (1974) gives results that are closer to the new contact freezing parameterization.

  9. Parameterization models for solar radiation and solar technology applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khalil, Samy A.

    2008-01-01

    Solar radiation is very important for the evaluation and wide use of solar renewable energy systems. The development of calibration procedures for broadband solar radiation photometric instrumentation and the improvement of broadband solar radiation measurement accuracy have been done. An improved diffuse sky reference and photometric calibration and characterization software for outdoor pyranometer calibrations are outlined. Parameterizations for direct beam, total hemispherical and diffuse sky radiation and solar radiation technology are briefly reviewed. The uncertainties for various broadband solar radiations of solar energy and atmospheric effects are discussed. The varying responsivities of solar radiation with meteorological, statistical and climatological parameters and possibility atmospheric conditions was examined

  10. Parameterization models for solar radiation and solar technology applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khalil, Samy A. [National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics, Solar and Space Department, Marsed Street, Helwan, 11421 Cairo (Egypt)

    2008-08-15

    Solar radiation is very important for the evaluation and wide use of solar renewable energy systems. The development of calibration procedures for broadband solar radiation photometric instrumentation and the improvement of broadband solar radiation measurement accuracy have been done. An improved diffuse sky reference and photometric calibration and characterization software for outdoor pyranometer calibrations are outlined. Parameterizations for direct beam, total hemispherical and diffuse sky radiation and solar radiation technology are briefly reviewed. The uncertainties for various broadband solar radiations of solar energy and atmospheric effects are discussed. The varying responsivities of solar radiation with meteorological, statistical and climatological parameters and possibility atmospheric conditions was examined. (author)

  11. Towards improved parameterization of a macroscale hydrologic model in a discontinuous permafrost boreal forest ecosystem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Endalamaw

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Modeling hydrological processes in the Alaskan sub-arctic is challenging because of the extreme spatial heterogeneity in soil properties and vegetation communities. Nevertheless, modeling and predicting hydrological processes is critical in this region due to its vulnerability to the effects of climate change. Coarse-spatial-resolution datasets used in land surface modeling pose a new challenge in simulating the spatially distributed and basin-integrated processes since these datasets do not adequately represent the small-scale hydrological, thermal, and ecological heterogeneity. The goal of this study is to improve the prediction capacity of mesoscale to large-scale hydrological models by introducing a small-scale parameterization scheme, which better represents the spatial heterogeneity of soil properties and vegetation cover in the Alaskan sub-arctic. The small-scale parameterization schemes are derived from observations and a sub-grid parameterization method in the two contrasting sub-basins of the Caribou Poker Creek Research Watershed (CPCRW in Interior Alaska: one nearly permafrost-free (LowP sub-basin and one permafrost-dominated (HighP sub-basin. The sub-grid parameterization method used in the small-scale parameterization scheme is derived from the watershed topography. We found that observed soil thermal and hydraulic properties – including the distribution of permafrost and vegetation cover heterogeneity – are better represented in the sub-grid parameterization method than the coarse-resolution datasets. Parameters derived from the coarse-resolution datasets and from the sub-grid parameterization method are implemented into the variable infiltration capacity (VIC mesoscale hydrological model to simulate runoff, evapotranspiration (ET, and soil moisture in the two sub-basins of the CPCRW. Simulated hydrographs based on the small-scale parameterization capture most of the peak and low flows, with similar accuracy in both sub

  12. A scheme for parameterizing ice cloud water content in general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heymsfield, Andrew J.; Donner, Leo J.

    1989-01-01

    A method for specifying ice water content in GCMs is developed, based on theory and in-cloud measurements. A theoretical development of the conceptual precipitation model is given and the aircraft flights used to characterize the ice mass distribution in deep ice clouds is discussed. Ice water content values derived from the theoretical parameterization are compared with the measured values. The results demonstrate that a simple parameterization for atmospheric ice content can account for ice contents observed in several synoptic contexts.

  13. Balancing accuracy, efficiency, and flexibility in a radiative transfer parameterization for dynamical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pincus, R.; Mlawer, E. J.

    2017-12-01

    Radiation is key process in numerical models of the atmosphere. The problem is well-understood and the parameterization of radiation has seen relatively few conceptual advances in the past 15 years. It is nonthelss often the single most expensive component of all physical parameterizations despite being computed less frequently than other terms. This combination of cost and maturity suggests value in a single radiation parameterization that could be shared across models; devoting effort to a single parameterization might allow for fine tuning for efficiency. The challenge lies in the coupling of this parameterization to many disparate representations of clouds and aerosols. This talk will describe RRTMGP, a new radiation parameterization that seeks to balance efficiency and flexibility. This balance is struck by isolating computational tasks in "kernels" that expose as much fine-grained parallelism as possible. These have simple interfaces and are interoperable across programming languages so that they might be repalced by alternative implementations in domain-specific langauges. Coupling to the host model makes use of object-oriented features of Fortran 2003, minimizing branching within the kernels and the amount of data that must be transferred. We will show accuracy and efficiency results for a globally-representative set of atmospheric profiles using a relatively high-resolution spectral discretization.

  14. Efficient Parameterization for Grey-box Model Identification of Complex Physical Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blanke, Mogens; Knudsen, Morten Haack

    2006-01-01

    Grey box model identification preserves known physical structures in a model but with limits to the possible excitation, all parameters are rarely identifiable, and different parametrizations give significantly different model quality. Convenient methods to show which parameterizations are the be...... that need be constrained to achieve satisfactory convergence. Identification of nonlinear models for a ship illustrate the concept....

  15. Evaluation of five dry particle deposition parameterizations for incorporation into atmospheric transport models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Tanvir R.; Perlinger, Judith A.

    2017-10-01

    Despite considerable effort to develop mechanistic dry particle deposition parameterizations for atmospheric transport models, current knowledge has been inadequate to propose quantitative measures of the relative performance of available parameterizations. In this study, we evaluated the performance of five dry particle deposition parameterizations developed by Zhang et al. (2001) (Z01), Petroff and Zhang (2010) (PZ10), Kouznetsov and Sofiev (2012) (KS12), Zhang and He (2014) (ZH14), and Zhang and Shao (2014) (ZS14), respectively. The evaluation was performed in three dimensions: model ability to reproduce observed deposition velocities, Vd (accuracy); the influence of imprecision in input parameter values on the modeled Vd (uncertainty); and identification of the most influential parameter(s) (sensitivity). The accuracy of the modeled Vd was evaluated using observations obtained from five land use categories (LUCs): grass, coniferous and deciduous forests, natural water, and ice/snow. To ascertain the uncertainty in modeled Vd, and quantify the influence of imprecision in key model input parameters, a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis was performed. The Sobol' sensitivity analysis was conducted with the objective to determine the parameter ranking from the most to the least influential. Comparing the normalized mean bias factors (indicators of accuracy), we find that the ZH14 parameterization is the most accurate for all LUCs except for coniferous forest, for which it is second most accurate. From Monte Carlo simulations, the estimated mean normalized uncertainties in the modeled Vd obtained for seven particle sizes (ranging from 0.005 to 2.5 µm) for the five LUCs are 17, 12, 13, 16, and 27 % for the Z01, PZ10, KS12, ZH14, and ZS14 parameterizations, respectively. From the Sobol' sensitivity results, we suggest that the parameter rankings vary by particle size and LUC for a given parameterization. Overall, for dp = 0.001 to 1.0 µm, friction velocity was one of

  16. Evaluation of five dry particle deposition parameterizations for incorporation into atmospheric transport models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. R. Khan

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Despite considerable effort to develop mechanistic dry particle deposition parameterizations for atmospheric transport models, current knowledge has been inadequate to propose quantitative measures of the relative performance of available parameterizations. In this study, we evaluated the performance of five dry particle deposition parameterizations developed by Zhang et al. (2001 (Z01, Petroff and Zhang (2010 (PZ10, Kouznetsov and Sofiev (2012 (KS12, Zhang and He (2014 (ZH14, and Zhang and Shao (2014 (ZS14, respectively. The evaluation was performed in three dimensions: model ability to reproduce observed deposition velocities, Vd (accuracy; the influence of imprecision in input parameter values on the modeled Vd (uncertainty; and identification of the most influential parameter(s (sensitivity. The accuracy of the modeled Vd was evaluated using observations obtained from five land use categories (LUCs: grass, coniferous and deciduous forests, natural water, and ice/snow. To ascertain the uncertainty in modeled Vd, and quantify the influence of imprecision in key model input parameters, a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis was performed. The Sobol' sensitivity analysis was conducted with the objective to determine the parameter ranking from the most to the least influential. Comparing the normalized mean bias factors (indicators of accuracy, we find that the ZH14 parameterization is the most accurate for all LUCs except for coniferous forest, for which it is second most accurate. From Monte Carlo simulations, the estimated mean normalized uncertainties in the modeled Vd obtained for seven particle sizes (ranging from 0.005 to 2.5 µm for the five LUCs are 17, 12, 13, 16, and 27 % for the Z01, PZ10, KS12, ZH14, and ZS14 parameterizations, respectively. From the Sobol' sensitivity results, we suggest that the parameter rankings vary by particle size and LUC for a given parameterization. Overall, for dp  =  0.001 to 1.0

  17. Assessing Impact, DIF, and DFF in Accommodated Item Scores: A Comparison of Multilevel Measurement Model Parameterizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beretvas, S. Natasha; Cawthon, Stephanie W.; Lockhart, L. Leland; Kaye, Alyssa D.

    2012-01-01

    This pedagogical article is intended to explain the similarities and differences between the parameterizations of two multilevel measurement model (MMM) frameworks. The conventional two-level MMM that includes item indicators and models item scores (Level 1) clustered within examinees (Level 2) and the two-level cross-classified MMM (in which item…

  18. Developing a stochastic parameterization to incorporate plant trait variability into ecohydrologic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, S.; Ng, G. H. C.

    2017-12-01

    The global plant database has revealed that plant traits can vary more within a plant functional type (PFT) than among different PFTs, indicating that the current paradigm in ecohydrogical models of specifying fixed parameters based solely on plant functional type (PFT) could potentially bias simulations. Although some recent modeling studies have attempted to incorporate this observed plant trait variability, many failed to consider uncertainties due to sparse global observation, or they omitted spatial and/or temporal variability in the traits. Here we present a stochastic parameterization for prognostic vegetation simulations that are stochastic in time and space in order to represent plant trait plasticity - the process by which trait differences arise. We have developed the new PFT parameterization within the Community Land Model 4.5 (CLM 4.5) and tested the method for a desert shrubland watershed in the Mojave Desert, where fixed parameterizations cannot represent acclimation to desert conditions. Spatiotemporally correlated plant trait parameters were first generated based on TRY statistics and were then used to implement ensemble runs for the study area. The new PFT parameterization was then further conditioned on field measurements of soil moisture and remotely sensed observations of leaf-area-index to constrain uncertainties in the sparse global database. Our preliminary results show that incorporating data-conditioned, variable PFT parameterizations strongly affects simulated soil moisture and water fluxes, compared with default simulations. The results also provide new insights about correlations among plant trait parameters and between traits and environmental conditions in the desert shrubland watershed. Our proposed stochastic PFT parameterization method for ecohydrological models has great potential in advancing our understanding of how terrestrial ecosystems are predicted to adapt to variable environmental conditions.

  19. Parameterizing Subgrid-Scale Orographic Drag in the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Atmospheric Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toy, M. D.; Olson, J.; Kenyon, J.; Smirnova, T. G.; Brown, J. M.

    2017-12-01

    The accuracy of wind forecasts in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is improved when the drag forces imparted on atmospheric flow by subgrid-scale orography are included. Without such parameterizations, only the terrain resolved by the model grid, along with the small-scale obstacles parameterized by the roughness lengths can have an effect on the flow. This neglects the impacts of subgrid-scale terrain variations, which typically leads to wind speeds that are too strong. Using statistical information about the subgrid-scale orography, such as the mean and variance of the topographic height within a grid cell, the drag forces due to flow blocking, gravity wave drag, and turbulent form drag are estimated and distributed vertically throughout the grid cell column. We recently implemented the small-scale gravity wave drag paramterization of Steeneveld et al. (2008) and Tsiringakis et al. (2017) for stable planetary boundary layers, and the turbulent form drag parameterization of Beljaars et al. (2004) in the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) NWP model developed at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). As a result, a high surface wind speed bias in the model has been reduced and small improvement to the maintenance of stable layers has also been found. We present the results of experiments with the subgrid-scale orographic drag parameterization for the regional HRRR model, as well as for a global model in development at NOAA, showing the direct and indirect impacts.

  20. Modeling of clouds and radiation for development of parameterizations for general circulation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Westphal, D.; Toon, B.; Jensen, E.; Kinne, S.; Ackerman, A.; Bergstrom, R.; Walker, A.

    1994-01-01

    Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program research at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) includes radiative transfer modeling, cirrus cloud microphysics, and stratus cloud modeling. These efforts are designed to provide the basis for improving cloud and radiation parameterizations in our main effort: mesoscale cloud modeling. The range of non-convective cloud models used by the ARM modeling community can be crudely categorized based on the number of predicted hydrometers such as cloud water, ice water, rain, snow, graupel, etc. The simplest model has no predicted hydrometers and diagnoses the presence of clouds based on the predicted relative humidity. The vast majority of cloud models have two or more predictive bulk hydrometers and are termed either bulk water (BW) or size-resolving (SR) schemes. This study compares the various cloud models within the same dynamical framework, and compares results with observations rather than climate statistics

  1. A new albedo parameterization for use in climate models over the Antarctic ice sheet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuipers Munneke, P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304831891; van den Broeke, M.R.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073765643; Lenaerts, J.T.M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/314850163; Flanner, M.G.; Gardner, A.S.; van de Berg, W.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304831611

    2011-01-01

    A parameterization for broadband snow surface albedo, based on snow grain size evolution, cloud optical thickness, and solar zenith angle, is implemented into a regional climate model for Antarctica and validated against field observations of albedo for the period 1995–2004. Over the Antarctic

  2. Integrated cumulus ensemble and turbulence (ICET): An integrated parameterization system for general circulation models (GCMs)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evans, J.L.; Frank, W.M.; Young, G.S. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States)

    1996-04-01

    Successful simulations of the global circulation and climate require accurate representation of the properties of shallow and deep convective clouds, stable-layer clouds, and the interactions between various cloud types, the boundary layer, and the radiative fluxes. Each of these phenomena play an important role in the global energy balance, and each must be parameterized in a global climate model. These processes are highly interactive. One major problem limiting the accuracy of parameterizations of clouds and other processes in general circulation models (GCMs) is that most of the parameterization packages are not linked with a common physical basis. Further, these schemes have not, in general, been rigorously verified against observations adequate to the task of resolving subgrid-scale effects. To address these problems, we are designing a new Integrated Cumulus Ensemble and Turbulence (ICET) parameterization scheme, installing it in a climate model (CCM2), and evaluating the performance of the new scheme using data from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) sites.

  3. Parameterizing unconditional skewness in models for financial time series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    He, Changli; Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    In this paper we consider the third-moment structure of a class of time series models. It is often argued that the marginal distribution of financial time series such as returns is skewed. Therefore it is of importance to know what properties a model should possess if it is to accommodate...

  4. Regional modelling of tracer transport by tropical convection – Part 1: Sensitivity to convection parameterization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Arteta

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The general objective of this series of papers is to evaluate long duration limited area simulations with idealised tracers as a tool to assess tracer transport in chemistry-transport models (CTMs. In this first paper, we analyse the results of six simulations using different convection closures and parameterizations. The simulations are using the Grell and Dévényi (2002 mass-flux framework for the convection parameterization with different closures (Grell = GR, Arakawa-Shubert = AS, Kain-Fritch = KF, Low omega = LO, Moisture convergence = MC and an ensemble parameterization (EN based on the other five closures. The simulations are run for one month during the SCOUT-O3 field campaign lead from Darwin (Australia. They have a 60 km horizontal resolution and a fine vertical resolution in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere. Meteorological results are compared with satellite products, radiosoundings and SCOUT-O3 aircraft campaign data. They show that the model is generally in good agreement with the measurements with less variability in the model. Except for the precipitation field, the differences between the six simulations are small on average with respect to the differences with the meteorological observations. The comparison with TRMM rainrates shows that the six parameterizations or closures have similar behaviour concerning convection triggering times and locations. However, the 6 simulations provide two different behaviours for rainfall values, with the EN, AS and KF parameterizations (Group 1 modelling better rain fields than LO, MC and GR (Group 2. The vertical distribution of tropospheric tracers is very different for the two groups showing significantly more transport into the TTL for Group 1 related to the larger average values of the upward velocities. Nevertheless the low values for the Group 1 fluxes at and above the cold point level indicate that the model does not simulate significant overshooting. For stratospheric tracers

  5. Parameterization models for pesticide exposure via crop consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fantke, Peter; Wieland, Peter; Juraske, Ronnie; Shaddick, Gavin; Itoiz, Eva Sevigné; Friedrich, Rainer; Jolliet, Olivier

    2012-12-04

    An approach for estimating human exposure to pesticides via consumption of six important food crops is presented that can be used to extend multimedia models applied in health risk and life cycle impact assessment. We first assessed the variation of model output (pesticide residues per kg applied) as a function of model input variables (substance, crop, and environmental properties) including their possible correlations using matrix algebra. We identified five key parameters responsible for between 80% and 93% of the variation in pesticide residues, namely time between substance application and crop harvest, degradation half-lives in crops and on crop surfaces, overall residence times in soil, and substance molecular weight. Partition coefficients also play an important role for fruit trees and tomato (Kow), potato (Koc), and lettuce (Kaw, Kow). Focusing on these parameters, we develop crop-specific models by parametrizing a complex fate and exposure assessment framework. The parametric models thereby reflect the framework's physical and chemical mechanisms and predict pesticide residues in harvest using linear combinations of crop, crop surface, and soil compartments. Parametric model results correspond well with results from the complex framework for 1540 substance-crop combinations with total deviations between a factor 4 (potato) and a factor 66 (lettuce). Predicted residues also correspond well with experimental data previously used to evaluate the complex framework. Pesticide mass in harvest can finally be combined with reduction factors accounting for food processing to estimate human exposure from crop consumption. All parametric models can be easily implemented into existing assessment frameworks.

  6. A generalized and parameterized interference model for cognitive radio networks

    KAUST Repository

    Mahmood, Nurul Huda; Yilmaz, Ferkan; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

    2011-01-01

    For meaningful co-existence of cognitive radios with primary system, it is imperative that the cognitive radio system is aware of how much interference it generates at the primary receivers. This can be done through statistical modeling

  7. Parameterization of clouds and radiation in climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roeckner, E. [Max Planck Institute for Meterology, Hamburg (Germany)

    1995-09-01

    Clouds are a very important, yet poorly modeled element in the climate system. There are many potential cloud feedbacks, including those related to cloud cover, height, water content, phase change, and droplet concentration and size distribution. As a prerequisite to studying the cloud feedback issue, this research reports on the simulation and validation of cloud radiative forcing under present climate conditions using the ECHAM general circulation model and ERBE top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes.

  8. A generalized and parameterized interference model for cognitive radio networks

    KAUST Repository

    Mahmood, Nurul Huda

    2011-06-01

    For meaningful co-existence of cognitive radios with primary system, it is imperative that the cognitive radio system is aware of how much interference it generates at the primary receivers. This can be done through statistical modeling of the interference as perceived at the primary receivers. In this work, we propose a generalized model for the interference generated by a cognitive radio network, in the presence of small and large scale fading, at a primary receiver located at the origin. We then demonstrate how this model can be used to estimate the impact of cognitive radio transmission on the primary receiver in terms of different outage probabilities. Finally, our analytical findings are validated through some selected computer-based simulations. © 2011 IEEE.

  9. Parameterized data-driven fuzzy model based optimal control of a semi-batch reactor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamesh, Reddi; Rani, K Yamuna

    2016-09-01

    A parameterized data-driven fuzzy (PDDF) model structure is proposed for semi-batch processes, and its application for optimal control is illustrated. The orthonormally parameterized input trajectories, initial states and process parameters are the inputs to the model, which predicts the output trajectories in terms of Fourier coefficients. Fuzzy rules are formulated based on the signs of a linear data-driven model, while the defuzzification step incorporates a linear regression model to shift the domain from input to output domain. The fuzzy model is employed to formulate an optimal control problem for single rate as well as multi-rate systems. Simulation study on a multivariable semi-batch reactor system reveals that the proposed PDDF modeling approach is capable of capturing the nonlinear and time-varying behavior inherent in the semi-batch system fairly accurately, and the results of operating trajectory optimization using the proposed model are found to be comparable to the results obtained using the exact first principles model, and are also found to be comparable to or better than parameterized data-driven artificial neural network model based optimization results. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Parameterization of a Hydrological Model for a Large, Ungauged Urban Catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerald Krebs

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Urbanization leads to the replacement of natural areas by impervious surfaces and affects the catchment hydrological cycle with adverse environmental impacts. Low impact development tools (LID that mimic hydrological processes of natural areas have been developed and applied to mitigate these impacts. Hydrological simulations are one possibility to evaluate the LID performance but the associated small-scale processes require a highly spatially distributed and explicit modeling approach. However, detailed data for model development are often not available for large urban areas, hampering the model parameterization. In this paper we propose a methodology to parameterize a hydrological model to a large, ungauged urban area by maintaining at the same time a detailed surface discretization for direct parameter manipulation for LID simulation and a firm reliance on available data for model conceptualization. Catchment delineation was based on a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM and model parameterization relied on a novel model regionalization approach. The impact of automated delineation and model regionalization on simulation results was evaluated for three monitored study catchments (5.87–12.59 ha. The simulated runoff peak was most sensitive to accurate catchment discretization and calibration, while both the runoff volume and the fit of the hydrograph were less affected.

  11. Calibration process of highly parameterized semi-distributed hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidmar, Andrej; Brilly, Mitja

    2017-04-01

    Hydrological phenomena take place in the hydrological system, which is governed by nature, and are essentially stochastic. These phenomena are unique, non-recurring, and changeable across space and time. Since any river basin with its own natural characteristics and any hydrological event therein, are unique, this is a complex process that is not researched enough. Calibration is a procedure of determining the parameters of a model that are not known well enough. Input and output variables and mathematical model expressions are known, while only some parameters are unknown, which are determined by calibrating the model. The software used for hydrological modelling nowadays is equipped with sophisticated algorithms for calibration purposes without possibility to manage process by modeler. The results are not the best. We develop procedure for expert driven process of calibration. We use HBV-light-CLI hydrological model which has command line interface and coupling it with PEST. PEST is parameter estimation tool which is used widely in ground water modeling and can be used also on surface waters. Process of calibration managed by expert directly, and proportionally to the expert knowledge, affects the outcome of the inversion procedure and achieves better results than if the procedure had been left to the selected optimization algorithm. First step is to properly define spatial characteristic and structural design of semi-distributed model including all morphological and hydrological phenomena, like karstic area, alluvial area and forest area. This step includes and requires geological, meteorological, hydraulic and hydrological knowledge of modeler. Second step is to set initial parameter values at their preferred values based on expert knowledge. In this step we also define all parameter and observation groups. Peak data are essential in process of calibration if we are mainly interested in flood events. Each Sub Catchment in the model has own observations group

  12. Modeling river dune evolution using a parameterization of flow separation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paarlberg, Andries J.; Dohmen-Janssen, C. Marjolein; Hulscher, Suzanne J.M.H.; Termes, Paul

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents an idealized morphodynamic model to predict river dune evolution. The flow field is solved in a vertical plane assuming hydrostatic pressure conditions. The sediment transport is computed using a Meyer-Peter–Müller type of equation, including gravitational bed slope effects and a

  13. Evaluation of a stratiform cloud parameterization for general circulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghan, S.J.; Leung, L.R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States); McCaa, J. [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)

    1996-04-01

    To evaluate the relative importance of horizontal advection of cloud versus cloud formation within the grid cell of a single column model (SCM), we have performed a series of simulations with our SCM driven by a fixed vertical velocity and various rates of horizontal advection.

  14. A general circulation model (GCM) parameterization of Pinatubo aerosols

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lacis, A.A.; Carlson, B.E.; Mishchenko, M.I. [NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY (United States)

    1996-04-01

    The June 1991 volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo is the largest and best documented global climate forcing experiment in recorded history. The time development and geographical dispersion of the aerosol has been closely monitored and sampled. Based on preliminary estimates of the Pinatubo aerosol loading, general circulation model predictions of the impact on global climate have been made.

  15. Ice shelf fracture parameterization in an ice sheet model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sun

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Floating ice shelves exert a stabilizing force onto the inland ice sheet. However, this buttressing effect is diminished by the fracture process, which on large scales effectively softens the ice, accelerating its flow, increasing calving, and potentially leading to ice shelf breakup. We add a continuum damage model (CDM to the BISICLES ice sheet model, which is intended to model the localized opening of crevasses under stress, the transport of those crevasses through the ice sheet, and the coupling between crevasse depth and the ice flow field and to carry out idealized numerical experiments examining the broad impact on large-scale ice sheet and shelf dynamics. In each case we see a complex pattern of damage evolve over time, with an eventual loss of buttressing approximately equivalent to halving the thickness of the ice shelf. We find that it is possible to achieve a similar ice flow pattern using a simple rule of thumb: introducing an enhancement factor ∼ 10 everywhere in the model domain. However, spatially varying damage (or equivalently, enhancement factor fields set at the start of prognostic calculations to match velocity observations, as is widely done in ice sheet simulations, ought to evolve in time, or grounding line retreat can be slowed by an order of magnitude.

  16. Ice shelf fracture parameterization in an ice sheet model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Sainan; Cornford, Stephen L.; Moore, John C.; Gladstone, Rupert; Zhao, Liyun

    2017-11-01

    Floating ice shelves exert a stabilizing force onto the inland ice sheet. However, this buttressing effect is diminished by the fracture process, which on large scales effectively softens the ice, accelerating its flow, increasing calving, and potentially leading to ice shelf breakup. We add a continuum damage model (CDM) to the BISICLES ice sheet model, which is intended to model the localized opening of crevasses under stress, the transport of those crevasses through the ice sheet, and the coupling between crevasse depth and the ice flow field and to carry out idealized numerical experiments examining the broad impact on large-scale ice sheet and shelf dynamics. In each case we see a complex pattern of damage evolve over time, with an eventual loss of buttressing approximately equivalent to halving the thickness of the ice shelf. We find that it is possible to achieve a similar ice flow pattern using a simple rule of thumb: introducing an enhancement factor ˜ 10 everywhere in the model domain. However, spatially varying damage (or equivalently, enhancement factor) fields set at the start of prognostic calculations to match velocity observations, as is widely done in ice sheet simulations, ought to evolve in time, or grounding line retreat can be slowed by an order of magnitude.

  17. Macromolecular refinement by model morphing using non-atomic parameterizations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowtan, Kevin; Agirre, Jon

    2018-02-01

    Refinement is a critical step in the determination of a model which explains the crystallographic observations and thus best accounts for the missing phase components. The scattering density is usually described in terms of atomic parameters; however, in macromolecular crystallography the resolution of the data is generally insufficient to determine the values of these parameters for individual atoms. Stereochemical and geometric restraints are used to provide additional information, but produce interrelationships between parameters which slow convergence, resulting in longer refinement times. An alternative approach is proposed in which parameters are not attached to atoms, but to regions of the electron-density map. These parameters can move the density or change the local temperature factor to better explain the structure factors. Varying the size of the region which determines the parameters at a particular position in the map allows the method to be applied at different resolutions without the use of restraints. Potential applications include initial refinement of molecular-replacement models with domain motions, and potentially the use of electron density from other sources such as electron cryo-microscopy (cryo-EM) as the refinement model.

  18. The relationship between a deformation-based eddy parameterization and the LANS-α turbulence model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachman, Scott D.; Anstey, James A.; Zanna, Laure

    2018-06-01

    A recent class of ocean eddy parameterizations proposed by Porta Mana and Zanna (2014) and Anstey and Zanna (2017) modeled the large-scale flow as a non-Newtonian fluid whose subgridscale eddy stress is a nonlinear function of the deformation. This idea, while largely new to ocean modeling, has a history in turbulence modeling dating at least back to Rivlin (1957). The new class of parameterizations results in equations that resemble the Lagrangian-averaged Navier-Stokes-α model (LANS-α, e.g., Holm et al., 1998a). In this note we employ basic tensor mathematics to highlight the similarities between these turbulence models using component-free notation. We extend the Anstey and Zanna (2017) parameterization, which was originally presented in 2D, to 3D, and derive variants of this closure that arise when the full non-Newtonian stress tensor is used. Despite the mathematical similarities between the non-Newtonian and LANS-α models which might provide insight into numerical implementation, the input and dissipation of kinetic energy between these two turbulent models differ.

  19. Current state of aerosol nucleation parameterizations for air-quality and climate modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semeniuk, Kirill; Dastoor, Ashu

    2018-04-01

    Aerosol nucleation parameterization models commonly used in 3-D air quality and climate models have serious limitations. This includes classical nucleation theory based variants, empirical models and other formulations. Recent work based on detailed and extensive laboratory measurements and improved quantum chemistry computation has substantially advanced the state of nucleation parameterizations. In terms of inorganic nucleation involving BHN and THN including ion effects these new models should be considered as worthwhile replacements for the old models. However, the contribution of organic species to nucleation remains poorly quantified. New particle formation consists of a distinct post-nucleation growth regime which is characterized by a strong Kelvin curvature effect and is thus dependent on availability of very low volatility organic species or sulfuric acid. There have been advances in the understanding of the multiphase chemistry of biogenic and anthropogenic organic compounds which facilitate to overcome the initial aerosol growth barrier. Implementation of processes influencing new particle formation is challenging in 3-D models and there is a lack of comprehensive parameterizations. This review considers the existing models and recent innovations.

  20. Warm Bias and Parameterization of Boundary Upwelling in Ocean Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cessi, Paola; Wolfe, Christopher

    2012-11-06

    It has been demonstrated that Eastern Boundary Currents (EBC) are a baroclinic intensification of the interior circulation of the ocean due to the emergence of mesoscale eddies in response to the sharp buoyancy gradients driven by the wind-stress and the thermal surface forcing. The eddies accomplish the heat and salt transport necessary to insure that the subsurface flow is adiabatic, compensating for the heat and salt transport effected by the mean currents. The EBC thus generated occurs on a cross-shore scale of order 20-100 km, and thus this scale needs to be resolved in climate models in order to capture the meridional transport by the EBC. Our result indicate that changes in the near shore currents on the oceanic eastern boundaries are linked not just to local forcing, such as coastal changes in the winds, but depend on the basin-wide circulation as well.

  1. Amplification of intrinsic emittance due to rough metal cathodes: Formulation of a parameterization model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Charles, T.K. [School of Physics and Astronomy, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, 3800 (Australia); Australian Synchrotron, 800 Blackburn Road, Clayton, Victoria, 3168 (Australia); Paganin, D.M. [School of Physics and Astronomy, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, 3800 (Australia); Dowd, R.T. [Australian Synchrotron, 800 Blackburn Road, Clayton, Victoria, 3168 (Australia)

    2016-08-21

    Intrinsic emittance is often the limiting factor for brightness in fourth generation light sources and as such, a good understanding of the factors affecting intrinsic emittance is essential in order to be able to decrease it. Here we present a parameterization model describing the proportional increase in emittance induced by cathode surface roughness. One major benefit behind the parameterization approach presented here is that it takes the complexity of a Monte Carlo model and reduces the results to a straight-forward empirical model. The resulting models describe the proportional increase in transverse momentum introduced by surface roughness, and are applicable to various metal types, photon wavelengths, applied electric fields, and cathode surface terrains. The analysis includes the increase in emittance due to changes in the electric field induced by roughness as well as the increase in transverse momentum resultant from the spatially varying surface normal. We also compare the results of the Parameterization Model to an Analytical Model which employs various approximations to produce a more compact expression with the cost of a reduction in accuracy.

  2. Mesoscale model parameterizations for radiation and turbulent fluxes at the lower boundary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somieski, F.

    1988-11-01

    A radiation parameterization scheme for use in mesoscale models with orography and clouds has been developed. Broadband parameterizations are presented for the solar and the terrestrial spectral ranges. They account for clear, turbid or cloudy atmospheres. The scheme is one-dimensional in the atmosphere, but the effects of mountains (inclination, shading, elevated horizon) are taken into account at the surface. In the terrestrial band, grey and black clouds are considered. Furthermore, the calculation of turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat and momentum at an inclined lower model boundary is described. Surface-layer similarity and the surface energy budget are used to evaluate the ground surface temperature. The total scheme is part of the mesoscale model MESOSCOP. (orig.) With 3 figs., 25 refs [de

  3. Modeling the energy balance in Marseille: Sensitivity to roughness length parameterizations and thermal admittance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demuzere, M.; De Ridder, K.; van Lipzig, N. P. M.

    2008-08-01

    During the ESCOMPTE campaign (Experience sur Site pour COntraindre les Modeles de Pollution atmospherique et de Transport d'Emissions), a 4-day intensive observation period was selected to evaluate the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS), a nonhydrostatic meteorological mesoscale model that was optimized with a parameterization for thermal roughness length to better represent urban surfaces. The evaluation shows that the ARPS model is able to correctly reproduce temperature, wind speed, and direction for one urban and two rural measurements stations. Furthermore, simulated heat fluxes show good agreement compared to the observations, although simulated sensible heat fluxes were initially too low for the urban stations. In order to improve the latter, different roughness length parameterization schemes were tested, combined with various thermal admittance values. This sensitivity study showed that the Zilitinkevich scheme combined with and intermediate value of thermal admittance performs best.

  4. Solvation of monovalent anions in formamide and methanol: Parameterization of the IEF-PCM model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boees, Elvis S.; Bernardi, Edson; Stassen, Hubert; Goncalves, Paulo F.B.

    2008-01-01

    The thermodynamics of solvation for a series of monovalent anions in formamide and methanol has been studied using the polarizable continuum model (PCM). The parameterization of this continuum model was guided by molecular dynamics simulations. The parameterized PCM model predicts the Gibbs free energies of solvation for 13 anions in formamide and 16 anions in methanol in very good agreement with experimental data. Two sets of atomic radii were tested in the definition of the solute cavities in the PCM and their performances are evaluated and discussed. Mean absolute deviations of the calculated free energies of solvation from the experimental values are in the range of 1.3-2.1 kcal/mol

  5. Parameterization of Rocket Dust Storms on Mars in the LMD Martian GCM: Modeling Details and Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chao; Forget, François; Bertrand, Tanguy; Spiga, Aymeric; Millour, Ehouarn; Navarro, Thomas

    2018-04-01

    The origin of the detached dust layers observed by the Mars Climate Sounder aboard the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter is still debated. Spiga et al. (2013, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgre.20046) revealed that deep mesoscale convective "rocket dust storms" are likely to play an important role in forming these dust layers. To investigate how the detached dust layers are generated by this mesoscale phenomenon and subsequently evolve at larger scales, a parameterization of rocket dust storms to represent the mesoscale dust convection is designed and included into the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) Martian Global Climate Model (GCM). The new parameterization allows dust particles in the GCM to be transported to higher altitudes than in traditional GCMs. Combined with the horizontal transport by large-scale winds, the dust particles spread out and form detached dust layers. During the Martian dusty seasons, the LMD GCM with the new parameterization is able to form detached dust layers. The formation, evolution, and decay of the simulated dust layers are largely in agreement with the Mars Climate Sounder observations. This suggests that mesoscale rocket dust storms are among the key factors to explain the observed detached dust layers on Mars. However, the detached dust layers remain absent in the GCM during the clear seasons, even with the new parameterization. This implies that other relevant atmospheric processes, operating when no dust storms are occurring, are needed to explain the Martian detached dust layers. More observations of local dust storms could improve the ad hoc aspects of this parameterization, such as the trigger and timing of dust injection.

  6. Development of a cloud microphysical model and parameterizations to describe the effect of CCN on warm cloud

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Kuba

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available First, a hybrid cloud microphysical model was developed that incorporates both Lagrangian and Eulerian frameworks to study quantitatively the effect of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN on the precipitation of warm clouds. A parcel model and a grid model comprise the cloud model. The condensation growth of CCN in each parcel is estimated in a Lagrangian framework. Changes in cloud droplet size distribution arising from condensation and coalescence are calculated on grid points using a two-moment bin method in a semi-Lagrangian framework. Sedimentation and advection are estimated in the Eulerian framework between grid points. Results from the cloud model show that an increase in the number of CCN affects both the amount and the area of precipitation. Additionally, results from the hybrid microphysical model and Kessler's parameterization were compared. Second, new parameterizations were developed that estimate the number and size distribution of cloud droplets given the updraft velocity and the number of CCN. The parameterizations were derived from the results of numerous numerical experiments that used the cloud microphysical parcel model. The input information of CCN for these parameterizations is only several values of CCN spectrum (they are given by CCN counter for example. It is more convenient than conventional parameterizations those need values concerned with CCN spectrum, C and k in the equation of N=CSk, or, breadth, total number and median radius, for example. The new parameterizations' predictions of initial cloud droplet size distribution for the bin method were verified by using the aforesaid hybrid microphysical model. The newly developed parameterizations will save computing time, and can effectively approximate components of cloud microphysics in a non-hydrostatic cloud model. The parameterizations are useful not only in the bin method in the regional cloud-resolving model but also both for a two-moment bulk microphysical model and

  7. Approaches to highly parameterized inversion-A guide to using PEST for groundwater-model calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doherty, John E.; Hunt, Randall J.

    2010-01-01

    Highly parameterized groundwater models can create calibration difficulties. Regularized inversion-the combined use of large numbers of parameters with mathematical approaches for stable parameter estimation-is becoming a common approach to address these difficulties and enhance the transfer of information contained in field measurements to parameters used to model that system. Though commonly used in other industries, regularized inversion is somewhat imperfectly understood in the groundwater field. There is concern that this unfamiliarity can lead to underuse, and misuse, of the methodology. This document is constructed to facilitate the appropriate use of regularized inversion for calibrating highly parameterized groundwater models. The presentation is directed at an intermediate- to advanced-level modeler, and it focuses on the PEST software suite-a frequently used tool for highly parameterized model calibration and one that is widely supported by commercial graphical user interfaces. A brief overview of the regularized inversion approach is provided, and techniques for mathematical regularization offered by PEST are outlined, including Tikhonov, subspace, and hybrid schemes. Guidelines for applying regularized inversion techniques are presented after a logical progression of steps for building suitable PEST input. The discussion starts with use of pilot points as a parameterization device and processing/grouping observations to form multicomponent objective functions. A description of potential parameter solution methodologies and resources available through the PEST software and its supporting utility programs follows. Directing the parameter-estimation process through PEST control variables is then discussed, including guidance for monitoring and optimizing the performance of PEST. Comprehensive listings of PEST control variables, and of the roles performed by PEST utility support programs, are presented in the appendixes.

  8. Evaluation and Improvement of Cloud and Convective Parameterizations from Analyses of ARM Observations and Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Del Genio, Anthony D. [NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States)

    2016-03-11

    Over this period the PI and his performed a broad range of data analysis, model evaluation, and model improvement studies using ARM data. These included cloud regimes in the TWP and their evolution over the MJO; M-PACE IOP SCM-CRM intercomparisons; simulations of convective updraft strength and depth during TWP-ICE; evaluation of convective entrainment parameterizations using TWP-ICE simulations; evaluation of GISS GCM cloud behavior vs. long-term SGP cloud statistics; classification of aerosol semi-direct effects on cloud cover; depolarization lidar constraints on cloud phase; preferred states of the winter Arctic atmosphere, surface, and sub-surface; sensitivity of convection to tropospheric humidity; constraints on the parameterization of mesoscale organization from TWP-ICE WRF simulations; updraft and downdraft properties in TWP-ICE simulated convection; insights from long-term ARM records at Manus and Nauru.

  9. Classification of parameter-dependent quantum integrable models, their parameterization, exact solution and other properties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owusu, Haile K; Yuzbashyan, Emil A

    2011-01-01

    We study general quantum integrable Hamiltonians linear in a coupling constant and represented by finite N x N real symmetric matrices. The restriction on the coupling dependence leads to a natural notion of nontrivial integrals of motion and classification of integrable families into types according to the number of such integrals. A type M family in our definition is formed by N-M nontrivial mutually commuting operators linear in the coupling. Working from this definition alone, we parameterize type M operators, i.e. resolve the commutation relations, and obtain an exact solution for their eigenvalues and eigenvectors. We show that our parameterization covers all type 1, 2 and 3 integrable models and discuss the extent to which it is complete for other types. We also present robust numerical observation on the number of energy-level crossings in type M integrable systems and analyze the taxonomy of types in the 1D Hubbard model. (paper)

  10. Framework of cloud parameterization including ice for 3-D mesoscale models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levkov, L; Jacob, D; Eppel, D; Grassl, H

    1989-01-01

    A parameterization scheme for the simulation of ice in clouds incorporated into the hydrostatic version of the GKSS three-dimensional mesoscale model. Numerical simulations of precipitation are performed: over the Northe Sea, the Hawaiian trade wind area and in the region of the intertropical convergence zone. Not only some major features of convective structures in all three areas but also cloud-aerosol interactions have successfully been simulated. (orig.) With 19 figs., 2 tabs.

  11. Parameterization of cloud droplet formation for global and regional models: including adsorption activation from insoluble CCN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Kumar

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Dust and black carbon aerosol have long been known to exert potentially important and diverse impacts on cloud droplet formation. Most studies to date focus on the soluble fraction of these particles, and overlook interactions of the insoluble fraction with water vapor (even if known to be hydrophilic. To address this gap, we developed a new parameterization that considers cloud droplet formation within an ascending air parcel containing insoluble (but wettable particles externally mixed with aerosol containing an appreciable soluble fraction. Activation of particles with a soluble fraction is described through well-established Köhler theory, while the activation of hydrophilic insoluble particles is treated by "adsorption-activation" theory. In the latter, water vapor is adsorbed onto insoluble particles, the activity of which is described by a multilayer Frenkel-Halsey-Hill (FHH adsorption isotherm modified to account for particle curvature. We further develop FHH activation theory to i find combinations of the adsorption parameters AFHH, BFHH which yield atmospherically-relevant behavior, and, ii express activation properties (critical supersaturation that follow a simple power law with respect to dry particle diameter.

    The new parameterization is tested by comparing the parameterized cloud droplet number concentration against predictions with a detailed numerical cloud model, considering a wide range of particle populations, cloud updraft conditions, water vapor condensation coefficient and FHH adsorption isotherm characteristics. The agreement between parameterization and parcel model is excellent, with an average error of 10% and R2~0.98. A preliminary sensitivity study suggests that the sublinear response of droplet number to Köhler particle concentration is not as strong for FHH particles.

  12. Morphing methods to parameterize specimen-specific finite element model geometries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigal, Ian A; Yang, Hongli; Roberts, Michael D; Downs, J Crawford

    2010-01-19

    Shape plays an important role in determining the biomechanical response of a structure. Specimen-specific finite element (FE) models have been developed to capture the details of the shape of biological structures and predict their biomechanics. Shape, however, can vary considerably across individuals or change due to aging or disease, and analysis of the sensitivity of specimen-specific models to these variations has proven challenging. An alternative to specimen-specific representation has been to develop generic models with simplified geometries whose shape is relatively easy to parameterize, and can therefore be readily used in sensitivity studies. Despite many successful applications, generic models are limited in that they cannot make predictions for individual specimens. We propose that it is possible to harness the detail available in specimen-specific models while leveraging the power of the parameterization techniques common in generic models. In this work we show that this can be accomplished by using morphing techniques to parameterize the geometry of specimen-specific FE models such that the model shape can be varied in a controlled and systematic way suitable for sensitivity analysis. We demonstrate three morphing techniques by using them on a model of the load-bearing tissues of the posterior pole of the eye. We show that using relatively straightforward procedures these morphing techniques can be combined, which allows the study of factor interactions. Finally, we illustrate that the techniques can be used in other systems by applying them to morph a femur. Morphing techniques provide an exciting new possibility for the analysis of the biomechanical role of shape, independently or in interaction with loading and material properties. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. The cloud-phase feedback in the Super-parameterized Community Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burt, M. A.; Randall, D. A.

    2016-12-01

    Recent comparisons of observations and climate model simulations by I. Tan and colleagues have suggested that the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen (WBF) process tends to be too active in climate models, making too much cloud ice, and resulting in an exaggerated negative cloud-phase feedback on climate change. We explore the WBF process and its effect on shortwave cloud forcing in present-day and future climate simulations with the Community Earth System Model, and its super-parameterized counterpart. Results show that SP-CESM has much less cloud ice and a weaker cloud-phase feedback than CESM.

  14. WRF model sensitivity to choice of parameterization: a study of the `York Flood 1999'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remesan, Renji; Bellerby, Tim; Holman, Ian; Frostick, Lynne

    2015-10-01

    Numerical weather modelling has gained considerable attention in the field of hydrology especially in un-gauged catchments and in conjunction with distributed models. As a consequence, the accuracy with which these models represent precipitation, sub-grid-scale processes and exceptional events has become of considerable concern to the hydrological community. This paper presents sensitivity analyses for the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model with respect to the choice of physical parameterization schemes (both cumulus parameterisation (CPSs) and microphysics parameterization schemes (MPSs)) used to represent the `1999 York Flood' event, which occurred over North Yorkshire, UK, 1st-14th March 1999. The study assessed four CPSs (Kain-Fritsch (KF2), Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ), Grell-Devenyi ensemble (GD) and the old Kain-Fritsch (KF1)) and four MPSs (Kessler, Lin et al., WRF single-moment 3-class (WSM3) and WRF single-moment 5-class (WSM5)] with respect to their influence on modelled rainfall. The study suggests that the BMJ scheme may be a better cumulus parameterization choice for the study region, giving a consistently better performance than other three CPSs, though there are suggestions of underestimation. The WSM3 was identified as the best MPSs and a combined WSM3/BMJ model setup produced realistic estimates of precipitation quantities for this exceptional flood event. This study analysed spatial variability in WRF performance through categorical indices, including POD, FBI, FAR and CSI during York Flood 1999 under various model settings. Moreover, the WRF model was good at predicting high-intensity rare events over the Yorkshire region, suggesting it has potential for operational use.

  15. Subgrid Parameterization of the Soil Moisture Storage Capacity for a Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weijian Guo

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Spatial variability plays an important role in nonlinear hydrologic processes. Due to the limitation of computational efficiency and data resolution, subgrid variability is usually assumed to be uniform for most grid-based rainfall-runoff models, which leads to the scale-dependence of model performances. In this paper, the scale effect on the Grid-Xinanjiang model was examined. The bias of the estimation of precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration and soil moisture at the different grid scales, along with the scale-dependence of the effective parameters, highlights the importance of well representing the subgrid variability. This paper presents a subgrid parameterization method to incorporate the subgrid variability of the soil storage capacity, which is a key variable that controls runoff generation and partitioning in the Grid-Xinanjiang model. In light of the similar spatial pattern and physical basis, the soil storage capacity is correlated with the topographic index, whose spatial distribution can more readily be measured. A beta distribution is introduced to represent the spatial distribution of the soil storage capacity within the grid. The results derived from the Yanduhe Basin show that the proposed subgrid parameterization method can effectively correct the watershed soil storage capacity curve. Compared to the original Grid-Xinanjiang model, the model performances are quite consistent at the different grid scales when the subgrid variability is incorporated. This subgrid parameterization method reduces the recalibration necessity when the Digital Elevation Model (DEM resolution is changed. Moreover, it improves the potential for the application of the distributed model in the ungauged basin.

  16. The use of the k - {epsilon} turbulence model within the Rossby Centre regional ocean climate model: parameterization development and results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Markus Meier, H.E. [Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Inst., Norrkoeping (Sweden). Rossby Centre

    2000-09-01

    As mixing plays a dominant role for the physics of an estuary like the Baltic Sea (seasonal heat storage, mixing in channels, deep water mixing), different mixing parameterizations for use in 3D Baltic Sea models are discussed and compared. For this purpose two different OGCMs of the Baltic Sea are utilized. Within the Swedish regional climate modeling program, SWECLIM, a 3D coupled ice-ocean model for the Baltic Sea has been coupled with an improved version of the two-equation k - {epsilon} turbulence model with corrected dissipation term, flux boundary conditions to include the effect of a turbulence enhanced layer due to breaking surface gravity waves and a parameterization for breaking internal waves. Results of multi-year simulations are compared with observations. The seasonal thermocline is simulated satisfactory and erosion of the halocline is avoided. Unsolved problems are discussed. To replace the controversial equation for dissipation the performance of a hierarchy of k-models has been tested and compared with the k - {epsilon} model. In addition, it is shown that the results of the mixing parameterization depend very much on the choice of the ocean model. Finally, the impact of two mixing parameterizations on Baltic Sea climate is investigated. In this case the sensitivity of mean SST, vertical temperature and salinity profiles, ice season and seasonal cycle of heat fluxes is quite large.

  17. The urban land use in the COSMO-CLM model: a comparison of three parameterizations for Berlin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristina Trusilova

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The regional non-hydrostatic climate model COSMO-CLM is increasingly being used on fine spatial scales of 1–5 km. Such applications require a detailed differentiation between the parameterization for natural and urban land uses. Since 2010, three parameterizations for urban land use have been incorporated into COSMO-CLM. These parameterizations vary in their complexity, required city parameters and their computational cost. We perform model simulations with the COSMO-CLM coupled to these three parameterizations for urban land in the same model domain of Berlin on a 1-km grid and compare results with available temperature observations. While all models capture the urban heat island, they differ in spatial detail, magnitude and the diurnal variation.

  18. Polynomial Chaos–Based Bayesian Inference of K-Profile Parameterization in a General Circulation Model of the Tropical Pacific

    KAUST Repository

    Sraj, Ihab; Zedler, Sarah E.; Knio, Omar; Jackson, Charles S.; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2016-01-01

    The authors present a polynomial chaos (PC)-based Bayesian inference method for quantifying the uncertainties of the K-profile parameterization (KPP) within the MIT general circulation model (MITgcm) of the tropical Pacific. The inference

  19. Parameterization of a bucket model for soil-vegetation-atmosphere modeling under seasonal climatic regimes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Romano

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the potential impact of accounting for seasonal variations in the climatic forcing and using different methods to parameterize the soil water content at field capacity on the water balance components computed by a bucket model (BM. The single-layer BM of Guswa et al. (2002 is employed, whereas the Richards equation (RE based Soil Water Atmosphere Plant (SWAP model is used as a benchmark model. The results are analyzed for two differently-textured soils and for some synthetic runs under real-like seasonal weather conditions, using stochastically-generated daily rainfall data for a period of 100 years. Since transient soil-moisture dynamics and climatic seasonality play a key role in certain zones of the World, such as in Mediterranean land areas, a specific feature of this study is to test the prediction capability of the bucket model under a condition where seasonal variations in rainfall are not in phase with the variations in plant transpiration. Reference is made to a hydrologic year in which we have a rainy period (starting 1 November and lasting 151 days where vegetation is basically assumed in a dormant stage, followed by a drier and rainless period with a vegetation regrowth phase. Better agreement between BM and RE-SWAP intercomparison results are obtained when BM is parameterized by a field capacity value determined through the drainage method proposed by Romano and Santini (2002. Depending on the vegetation regrowth or dormant seasons, rainfall variability within a season results in transpiration regimes and soil moisture fluctuations with distinctive features. During the vegetation regrowth season, transpiration exerts a key control on soil water budget with respect to rainfall. During the dormant season of vegetation, the precipitation regime becomes an important climate forcing. Simulations also highlight the occurrence of bimodality in the probability distribution of soil moisture during the season when plants are

  20. Modelling and parameterizing the influence of tides on ice-shelf melt rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jourdain, N.; Molines, J. M.; Le Sommer, J.; Mathiot, P.; de Lavergne, C.; Gurvan, M.; Durand, G.

    2017-12-01

    Significant Antarctic ice sheet thinning is observed in several sectors of Antarctica, in particular in the Amundsen Sea sector, where warm circumpolar deep waters affect basal melting. The later has the potential to trigger marine ice sheet instabilities, with an associated potential for rapid sea level rise. It is therefore crucial to simulate and understand the processes associated with ice-shelf melt rates. In particular, the absence of tides representation in ocean models remains a caveat of numerous ocean hindcasts and climate projections. In the Amundsen Sea, tides are relatively weak and the melt-induced circulation is stronger than the tidal circulation. Using a regional 1/12° ocean model of the Amundsen Sea, we nonetheless find that tides can increase melt rates by up to 36% in some ice-shelf cavities. Among the processes that can possibly affect melt rates, the most important is an increased exchange at the ice/ocean interface resulting from the presence of strong tidal currents along the ice drafts. Approximately a third of this effect is compensated by a decrease in thermal forcing along the ice draft, which is related to an enhanced vertical mixing in the ocean interior in presence of tides. Parameterizing the effect of tides is an alternative to the representation of explicit tides in an ocean model, and has the advantage not to require any filtering of ocean model outputs. We therefore explore different ways to parameterize the effects of tides on ice shelf melt. First, we compare several methods to impose tidal velocities along the ice draft. We show that getting a realistic spatial distribution of tidal velocities in important, and can be deduced from the barotropic velocities of a tide model. Then, we explore several aspects of parameterized tidal mixing to reproduce the tide-induced decrease in thermal forcing along the ice drafts.

  1. On the sensitivity of mesoscale models to surface-layer parameterization constants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garratt, J. R.; Pielke, R. A.

    1989-09-01

    The Colorado State University standard mesoscale model is used to evaluate the sensitivity of one-dimensional (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) fields to differences in surface-layer parameterization “constants”. Such differences reflect the range in the published values of the von Karman constant, Monin-Obukhov stability functions and the temperature roughness length at the surface. The sensitivity of 1D boundary-layer structure, and 2D sea-breeze intensity, is generally less than that found in published comparisons related to turbulence closure schemes generally.

  2. Parameterization of the ACRU model for estimating biophysical and climatological change impacts, Beaver Creek, Alberta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forbes, K. A.; Kienzle, S. W.; Coburn, C. A.; Byrne, J. M.

    2006-12-01

    Multiple threats, including intensification of agricultural production, non-renewable resource extraction and climate change, are threatening Southern Alberta's water supply. The objective of this research is to calibrate/evaluate the Agricultural Catchments Research Unit (ACRU) agrohydrological model; with the end goal of forecasting the impacts of a changing environment on water quantity. The strength of this model is the intensive multi-layered soil water budgeting routine that integrates water movement between the surface and atmosphere. The ACRU model was parameterized using data from Environment Canada's climate database for a twenty year period (1984-2004) and was used to simulate streamflow for Beaver Creek. The simulated streamflow was compared to Environment Canada's historical streamflow database to validate the model output. The Beaver Creek Watershed, located in the Porcupine Hills southwestern Alberta, Canada contains a heterogeneous cover of deciduous, coniferous, native prairie grasslands and forage crops. In a catchment with highly diversified land cover, canopy architecture cannot be overlooked in rainfall interception parameterization. Preliminary testing of ACRU suggests that streamflows were sensitive to varied levels of leaf area index (LAI), a representative fraction of canopy foliage. Further testing using remotely sensed LAI's will provide a more accurate representation of canopy foliage and ultimately best represent this important element of the hydrological cycle and the associated processes which govern the natural hydrology of the Beaver Creek watershed.

  3. Model-driven harmonic parameterization of the cortical surface: HIP-HOP.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auzias, G; Lefèvre, J; Le Troter, A; Fischer, C; Perrot, M; Régis, J; Coulon, O

    2013-05-01

    In the context of inter subject brain surface matching, we present a parameterization of the cortical surface constrained by a model of cortical organization. The parameterization is defined via an harmonic mapping of each hemisphere surface to a rectangular planar domain that integrates a representation of the model. As opposed to previous landmark-based registration methods we do not match folds between individuals but instead optimize the fit between cortical sulci and specific iso-coordinate axis in the model. This strategy overcomes some limitation to sulcus-based registration techniques such as topological variability in sulcal landmarks across subjects. Experiments on 62 subjects with manually traced sulci are presented and compared with the result of the Freesurfer software. The evaluation involves a measure of dispersion of sulci with both angular and area distortions. We show that the model-based strategy can lead to a natural, efficient and very fast (less than 5 min per hemisphere) method for defining inter subjects correspondences. We discuss how this approach also reduces the problems inherent to anatomically defined landmarks and open the way to the investigation of cortical organization through the notion of orientation and alignment of structures across the cortex.

  4. Parameterization and evaluation of sulfate adsorption in a dynamic soil chemistry model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinson, Liisa; Alveteg, Mattias; Warfvinge, Per

    2003-01-01

    Including sulfate adsorption improves the dynamic behavior of the SAFE model. - Sulfate adsorption was implemented in the dynamic, multi-layer soil chemistry model SAFE. The process is modeled by an isotherm in which sulfate adsorption is considered to be fully reversible and dependent on sulfate concentration as well as pH in soil solution. The isotherm was parameterized by a site-specific series of simple batch experiments at different pH (3.8-5.0) and sulfate concentration (10-260 μmol l -1 ) levels. Application of the model to the Lake Gaardsjoen roof covered site shows that including sulfate adsorption improves the dynamic behavior of the model and sulfate adsorption and desorption delay acidification and recovery of the soil. The modeled adsorbed pool of sulfate at the site reached a maximum level of 700 mmol/m 2 in the late 1980s, well in line with experimental data

  5. Parameterizing Urban Canopy Layer transport in an Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stöckl, Stefan; Rotach, Mathias W.

    2016-04-01

    The percentage of people living in urban areas is rising worldwide, crossed 50% in 2007 and is even higher in developed countries. High population density and numerous sources of air pollution in close proximity can lead to health issues. Therefore it is important to understand the nature of urban pollutant dispersion. In the last decades this field has experienced considerable progress, however the influence of large roughness elements is complex and has as of yet not been completely described. Hence, this work studied urban particle dispersion close to source and ground. It used an existing, steady state, three-dimensional Lagrangian particle dispersion model, which includes Roughness Sublayer parameterizations of turbulence and flow. The model is valid for convective and neutral to stable conditions and uses the kernel method for concentration calculation. As most Lagrangian models, its lower boundary is the zero-plane displacement, which means that roughly the lower two-thirds of the mean building height are not included in the model. This missing layer roughly coincides with the Urban Canopy Layer. An earlier work "traps" particles hitting the lower model boundary for a recirculation period, which is calculated under the assumption of a vortex in skimming flow, before "releasing" them again. The authors hypothesize that improving the lower boundary condition by including Urban Canopy Layer transport could improve model predictions. This was tested herein by not only trapping the particles, but also advecting them with a mean, parameterized flow in the Urban Canopy Layer. Now the model calculates the trapping period based on either recirculation due to vortex motion in skimming flow regimes or vertical velocity if no vortex forms, depending on incidence angle of the wind on a randomly chosen street canyon. The influence of this modification, as well as the model's sensitivity to parameterization constants, was investigated. To reach this goal, the model was

  6. Parameterization Improvements and Functional and Structural Advances in Version 4 of the Community Land Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew G. Slater

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The Community Land Model is the land component of the Community Climate System Model. Here, we describe a broad set of model improvements and additions that have been provided through the CLM development community to create CLM4. The model is extended with a carbon-nitrogen (CN biogeochemical model that is prognostic with respect to vegetation, litter, and soil carbon and nitrogen states and vegetation phenology. An urban canyon model is added and a transient land cover and land use change (LCLUC capability, including wood harvest, is introduced, enabling study of historic and future LCLUC on energy, water, momentum, carbon, and nitrogen fluxes. The hydrology scheme is modified with a revised numerical solution of the Richards equation and a revised ground evaporation parameterization that accounts for litter and within-canopy stability. The new snow model incorporates the SNow and Ice Aerosol Radiation model (SNICAR - which includes aerosol deposition, grain-size dependent snow aging, and vertically-resolved snowpack heating –– as well as new snow cover and snow burial fraction parameterizations. The thermal and hydrologic properties of organic soil are accounted for and the ground column is extended to ~50-m depth. Several other minor modifications to the land surface types dataset, grass and crop optical properties, atmospheric forcing height, roughness length and displacement height, and the disposition of snow-capped runoff are also incorporated.Taken together, these augmentations to CLM result in improved soil moisture dynamics, drier soils, and stronger soil moisture variability. The new model also exhibits higher snow cover, cooler soil temperatures in organic-rich soils, greater global river discharge, and lower albedos over forests and grasslands, all of which are improvements compared to CLM3.5. When CLM4 is run with CN, the mean biogeophysical simulation is slightly degraded because the vegetation structure is prognostic rather

  7. Implementation of a generalized actuator line model for wind turbine parameterization in the Weather Research and Forecasting model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marjanovic, Nikola [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, MC 1710, Berkeley, California 94720-1710, USA; Atmospheric, Earth and Energy Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, PO Box 808, L-103, Livermore, California 94551, USA; Mirocha, Jeffrey D. [Atmospheric, Earth and Energy Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, PO Box 808, L-103, Livermore, California 94551, USA; Kosović, Branko [Research Applications Laboratory, Weather Systems and Assessment Program, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, PO Box 3000, Boulder, Colorado 80307, USA; Lundquist, Julie K. [Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Campus Box 311, Boulder, Colorado 80309, USA; National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 15013 Denver West Parkway, Golden, Colorado 80401, USA; Chow, Fotini Katopodes [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, MC 1710, Berkeley, California 94720-1710, USA

    2017-11-01

    A generalized actuator line (GAL) wind turbine parameterization is implemented within the Weather Research and Forecasting model to enable high-fidelity large-eddy simulations of wind turbine interactions with boundary layer flows under realistic atmospheric forcing conditions. Numerical simulations using the GAL parameterization are evaluated against both an already implemented generalized actuator disk (GAD) wind turbine parameterization and two field campaigns that measured the inflow and near-wake regions of a single turbine. The representation of wake wind speed, variance, and vorticity distributions is examined by comparing fine-resolution GAL and GAD simulations and GAD simulations at both fine and coarse-resolutions. The higher-resolution simulations show slightly larger and more persistent velocity deficits in the wake and substantially increased variance and vorticity when compared to the coarse-resolution GAD. The GAL generates distinct tip and root vortices that maintain coherence as helical tubes for approximately one rotor diameter downstream. Coarse-resolution simulations using the GAD produce similar aggregated wake characteristics to both fine-scale GAD and GAL simulations at a fraction of the computational cost. The GAL parameterization provides the capability to resolve near wake physics, including vorticity shedding and wake expansion.

  8. Parameterizing unresolved obstacles with source terms in wave modeling: A real-world application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mentaschi, Lorenzo; Kakoulaki, Georgia; Vousdoukas, Michalis; Voukouvalas, Evangelos; Feyen, Luc; Besio, Giovanni

    2018-06-01

    Parameterizing the dissipative effects of small, unresolved coastal features, is fundamental to improve the skills of wave models. The established technique to deal with this problem consists in reducing the amount of energy advected within the propagation scheme, and is currently available only for regular grids. To find a more general approach, Mentaschi et al., 2015b formulated a technique based on source terms, and validated it on synthetic case studies. This technique separates the parameterization of the unresolved features from the energy advection, and can therefore be applied to any numerical scheme and to any type of mesh. Here we developed an open-source library for the estimation of the transparency coefficients needed by this approach, from bathymetric data and for any type of mesh. The spectral wave model WAVEWATCH III was used to show that in a real-world domain, such as the Caribbean Sea, the proposed approach has skills comparable and sometimes better than the established propagation-based technique.

  9. The Grell-Freitas Convective Parameterization: Recent Developments and Applications Within the NASA GEOS Global Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freitas, S.; Grell, G. A.; Molod, A.

    2017-12-01

    We implemented and began to evaluate an alternative convection parameterization for the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global model. The parameterization (Grell and Freitas, 2014) is based on the mass flux approach with several closures, for equilibrium and non-equilibrium convection, and includes scale and aerosol awareness functionalities. Scale dependence for deep convection is implemented either through using the method described by Arakawa et al (2011), or through lateral spreading of the subsidence terms. Aerosol effects are included though the dependence of autoconversion and evaporation on the CCN number concentration.Recently, the scheme has been extended to a tri-modal spectral size approach to simulate the transition from shallow, congestus, and deep convection regimes. In addition, the inclusion of a new closure for non-equilibrium convection resulted in a substantial gain of realism in model simulation of the diurnal cycle of convection over the land. Also, a beta-pdf is employed now to represent the normalized mass flux profile. This opens up an additional venue to apply stochasticism in the scheme.

  10. A clinically parameterized mathematical model of Shigella immunity to inform vaccine design.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Courtney L Davis

    Full Text Available We refine and clinically parameterize a mathematical model of the humoral immune response against Shigella, a diarrheal bacteria that infects 80-165 million people and kills an estimated 600,000 people worldwide each year. Using Latin hypercube sampling and Monte Carlo simulations for parameter estimation, we fit our model to human immune data from two Shigella EcSf2a-2 vaccine trials and a rechallenge study in which antibody and B-cell responses against Shigella's lipopolysaccharide (LPS and O-membrane proteins (OMP were recorded. The clinically grounded model is used to mathematically investigate which key immune mechanisms and bacterial targets confer immunity against Shigella and to predict which humoral immune components should be elicited to create a protective vaccine against Shigella. The model offers insight into why the EcSf2a-2 vaccine had low efficacy and demonstrates that at a group level a humoral immune response induced by EcSf2a-2 vaccine or wild-type challenge against Shigella's LPS or OMP does not appear sufficient for protection. That is, the model predicts an uncontrolled infection of gut epithelial cells that is present across all best-fit model parameterizations when fit to EcSf2a-2 vaccine or wild-type challenge data. Using sensitivity analysis, we explore which model parameter values must be altered to prevent the destructive epithelial invasion by Shigella bacteria and identify four key parameter groups as potential vaccine targets or immune correlates: 1 the rate that Shigella migrates into the lamina propria or epithelium, 2 the rate that memory B cells (BM differentiate into antibody-secreting cells (ASC, 3 the rate at which antibodies are produced by activated ASC, and 4 the Shigella-specific BM carrying capacity. This paper underscores the need for a multifaceted approach in ongoing efforts to design an effective Shigella vaccine.

  11. A clinically parameterized mathematical model of Shigella immunity to inform vaccine design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Courtney L; Wahid, Rezwanul; Toapanta, Franklin R; Simon, Jakub K; Sztein, Marcelo B

    2018-01-01

    We refine and clinically parameterize a mathematical model of the humoral immune response against Shigella, a diarrheal bacteria that infects 80-165 million people and kills an estimated 600,000 people worldwide each year. Using Latin hypercube sampling and Monte Carlo simulations for parameter estimation, we fit our model to human immune data from two Shigella EcSf2a-2 vaccine trials and a rechallenge study in which antibody and B-cell responses against Shigella's lipopolysaccharide (LPS) and O-membrane proteins (OMP) were recorded. The clinically grounded model is used to mathematically investigate which key immune mechanisms and bacterial targets confer immunity against Shigella and to predict which humoral immune components should be elicited to create a protective vaccine against Shigella. The model offers insight into why the EcSf2a-2 vaccine had low efficacy and demonstrates that at a group level a humoral immune response induced by EcSf2a-2 vaccine or wild-type challenge against Shigella's LPS or OMP does not appear sufficient for protection. That is, the model predicts an uncontrolled infection of gut epithelial cells that is present across all best-fit model parameterizations when fit to EcSf2a-2 vaccine or wild-type challenge data. Using sensitivity analysis, we explore which model parameter values must be altered to prevent the destructive epithelial invasion by Shigella bacteria and identify four key parameter groups as potential vaccine targets or immune correlates: 1) the rate that Shigella migrates into the lamina propria or epithelium, 2) the rate that memory B cells (BM) differentiate into antibody-secreting cells (ASC), 3) the rate at which antibodies are produced by activated ASC, and 4) the Shigella-specific BM carrying capacity. This paper underscores the need for a multifaceted approach in ongoing efforts to design an effective Shigella vaccine.

  12. The role of aerosols in cloud drop parameterizations and its applications in global climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chuang, C.C.; Penner, J.E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)

    1996-04-01

    The characteristics of the cloud drop size distribution near cloud base are initially determined by aerosols that serve as cloud condensation nuclei and the updraft velocity. We have developed parameterizations relating cloud drop number concentration to aerosol number and sulfate mass concentrations and used them in a coupled global aerosol/general circulation model (GCM) to estimate the indirect aerosol forcing. The global aerosol model made use of our detailed emissions inventories for the amount of particulate matter from biomass burning sources and from fossil fuel sources as well as emissions inventories of the gas-phase anthropogenic SO{sub 2}. This work is aimed at validating the coupled model with the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program measurements and assessing the possible magnitude of the aerosol-induced cloud effects on climate.

  13. Towards product design automation based on parameterized standard model with diversiform knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Wei; Zhang, Xiaobing

    2017-04-01

    Product standardization based on CAD software is an effective way to improve design efficiency. In the past, research and development on standardization mainly focused on the level of component, and the standardization of the entire product as a whole is rarely taken into consideration. In this paper, the size and structure of 3D product models are both driven by the Excel datasheets, based on which a parameterized model library is therefore established. Diversiform knowledge including associated parameters and default properties are embedded into the templates in advance to simplify their reuse. Through the simple operation, we can obtain the correct product with the finished 3D models including single parts or complex assemblies. Two examples are illustrated later to invalid the idea, which will greatly improve the design efficiency.

  14. Effects of model resolution and parameterizations on the simulations of clouds, precipitation, and their interactions with aerosols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Seoung Soo; Li, Zhanqing; Zhang, Yuwei; Yoo, Hyelim; Kim, Seungbum; Kim, Byung-Gon; Choi, Yong-Sang; Mok, Jungbin; Um, Junshik; Ock Choi, Kyoung; Dong, Danhong

    2018-01-01

    This study investigates the roles played by model resolution and microphysics parameterizations in the well-known uncertainties or errors in simulations of clouds, precipitation, and their interactions with aerosols by the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. For this investigation, we used cloud-system-resolving model (CSRM) simulations as benchmark simulations that adopt high-resolution and full-fledged microphysical processes. These simulations were evaluated against observations, and this evaluation demonstrated that the CSRM simulations can function as benchmark simulations. Comparisons between the CSRM simulations and the simulations at the coarse resolutions that are generally adopted by current NWP models indicate that the use of coarse resolutions as in the NWP models can lower not only updrafts and other cloud variables (e.g., cloud mass, condensation, deposition, and evaporation) but also their sensitivity to increasing aerosol concentration. The parameterization of the saturation process plays an important role in the sensitivity of cloud variables to aerosol concentrations. while the parameterization of the sedimentation process has a substantial impact on how cloud variables are distributed vertically. The variation in cloud variables with resolution is much greater than what happens with varying microphysics parameterizations, which suggests that the uncertainties in the NWP simulations are associated with resolution much more than microphysics parameterizations.

  15. Assessing Sexual Dicromatism: The Importance of Proper Parameterization in Tetrachromatic Visual Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre-Paul Bitton

    Full Text Available Perceptual models of animal vision have greatly contributed to our understanding of animal-animal and plant-animal communication. The receptor-noise model of color contrasts has been central to this research as it quantifies the difference between two colors for any visual system of interest. However, if the properties of the visual system are unknown, assumptions regarding parameter values must be made, generally with unknown consequences. In this study, we conduct a sensitivity analysis of the receptor-noise model using avian visual system parameters to systematically investigate the influence of variation in light environment, photoreceptor sensitivities, photoreceptor densities, and light transmission properties of the ocular media and the oil droplets. We calculated the chromatic contrast of 15 plumage patches to quantify a dichromatism score for 70 species of Galliformes, a group of birds that display a wide range of sexual dimorphism. We found that the photoreceptor densities and the wavelength of maximum sensitivity of the short-wavelength-sensitive photoreceptor 1 (SWS1 can change dichromatism scores by 50% to 100%. In contrast, the light environment, transmission properties of the oil droplets, transmission properties of the ocular media, and the peak sensitivities of the cone photoreceptors had a smaller impact on the scores. By investigating the effect of varying two or more parameters simultaneously, we further demonstrate that improper parameterization could lead to differences between calculated and actual contrasts of more than 650%. Our findings demonstrate that improper parameterization of tetrachromatic visual models can have very large effects on measures of dichromatism scores, potentially leading to erroneous inferences. We urge more complete characterization of avian retinal properties and recommend that researchers either determine whether their species of interest possess an ultraviolet or near-ultraviolet sensitive SWS1

  16. Improving Mixed-phase Cloud Parameterization in Climate Model with the ACRF Measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Zhien [Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, WY (United States)

    2016-12-13

    Mixed-phase cloud microphysical and dynamical processes are still poorly understood, and their representation in GCMs is a major source of uncertainties in overall cloud feedback in GCMs. Thus improving mixed-phase cloud parameterizations in climate models is critical to reducing the climate forecast uncertainties. This study aims at providing improved knowledge of mixed-phase cloud properties from the long-term ACRF observations and improving mixed-phase clouds simulations in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). The key accomplishments are: 1) An improved retrieval algorithm was developed to provide liquid droplet concentration for drizzling or mixed-phase stratiform clouds. 2) A new ice concentration retrieval algorithm for stratiform mixed-phase clouds was developed. 3) A strong seasonal aerosol impact on ice generation in Arctic mixed-phase clouds was identified, which is mainly attributed to the high dust occurrence during the spring season. 4) A suite of multi-senor algorithms was applied to long-term ARM observations at the Barrow site to provide a complete dataset (LWC and effective radius profile for liquid phase, and IWC, Dge profiles and ice concentration for ice phase) to characterize Arctic stratiform mixed-phase clouds. This multi-year stratiform mixed-phase cloud dataset provides necessary information to study related processes, evaluate model stratiform mixed-phase cloud simulations, and improve model stratiform mixed-phase cloud parameterization. 5). A new in situ data analysis method was developed to quantify liquid mass partition in convective mixed-phase clouds. For the first time, we reliably compared liquid mass partitions in stratiform and convective mixed-phase clouds. Due to the different dynamics in stratiform and convective mixed-phase clouds, the temperature dependencies of liquid mass partitions are significantly different due to much higher ice concentrations in convective mixed phase clouds. 6) Systematic evaluations

  17. Evaluating and Improving Wind Forecasts over South China: The Role of Orographic Parameterization in the GRAPES Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Shuixin; Chen, Zitong; Xu, Daosheng; Zhang, Yanxia

    2018-06-01

    Unresolved small-scale orographic (SSO) drags are parameterized in a regional model based on the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System for the Tropical Mesoscale Model (GRAPES TMM). The SSO drags are represented by adding a sink term in the momentum equations. The maximum height of the mountain within the grid box is adopted in the SSO parameterization (SSOP) scheme as compensation for the drag. The effects of the unresolved topography are parameterized as the feedbacks to the momentum tendencies on the first model level in planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization. The SSOP scheme has been implemented and coupled with the PBL parameterization scheme within the model physics package. A monthly simulation is designed to examine the performance of the SSOP scheme over the complex terrain areas located in the southwest of Guangdong. The verification results show that the surface wind speed bias has been much alleviated by adopting the SSOP scheme, in addition to reduction of the wind bias in the lower troposphere. The target verification over Xinyi shows that the simulations with the SSOP scheme provide improved wind estimation over the complex regions in the southwest of Guangdong.

  18. Parameterization and sensitivity analyses of a radiative transfer model for remote sensing plant canopies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Carlton Raden

    A major objective of remote sensing is determination of biochemical and biophysical characteristics of plant canopies utilizing high spectral resolution sensors. Canopy reflectance signatures are dependent on absorption and scattering processes of the leaf, canopy properties, and the ground beneath the canopy. This research investigates, through field and laboratory data collection, and computer model parameterization and simulations, the relationships between leaf optical properties, canopy biophysical features, and the nadir viewed above-canopy reflectance signature. Emphasis is placed on parameterization and application of an existing irradiance radiative transfer model developed for aquatic systems. Data and model analyses provide knowledge on the relative importance of leaves and canopy biophysical features in estimating the diffuse absorption a(lambda,m-1), diffuse backscatter b(lambda,m-1), beam attenuation alpha(lambda,m-1), and beam to diffuse conversion c(lambda,m-1 ) coefficients of the two-flow irradiance model. Data sets include field and laboratory measurements from three plant species, live oak (Quercus virginiana), Brazilian pepper (Schinus terebinthifolius) and grapefruit (Citrus paradisi) sampled on Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center Florida in March and April of 1997. Features measured were depth h (m), projected foliage coverage PFC, leaf area index LAI, and zenith leaf angle. Optical measurements, collected with a Spectron SE 590 high sensitivity narrow bandwidth spectrograph, included above canopy reflectance, internal canopy transmittance and reflectance and bottom reflectance. Leaf samples were returned to laboratory where optical and physical and chemical measurements of leaf thickness, leaf area, leaf moisture and pigment content were made. A new term, the leaf volume correction index LVCI was developed and demonstrated in support of model coefficient parameterization. The LVCI is based on angle adjusted leaf

  19. Natural Ocean Carbon Cycle Sensitivity to Parameterizations of the Recycling in a Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanou, A.; Romanski, J.; Gregg, W. W.

    2014-01-01

    eventually resurfaces with the global thermohaline circulation especially in the Southern Ocean. Because of the reduced primary production and carbon export in GISSEH compared to GISSER, the biological pump efficiency, i.e., the ratio of primary production and carbon export at 75 m, is half in the GISSEH of that in GISSER, The Southern Ocean emerges as a key region where the CO2 flux is as sensitive to biological parameterizations as it is to physical parameterizations. The fidelity of ocean mixing in the Southern Ocean compared to observations is shown to be a good indicator of the magnitude of the biological pump efficiency regardless of physical model choice.

  20. Evaluating the importance of characterizing soil structure and horizons in parameterizing a hydrologic process model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirus, Benjamin B.

    2015-01-01

    Incorporating the influence of soil structure and horizons into parameterizations of distributed surface water/groundwater models remains a challenge. Often, only a single soil unit is employed, and soil-hydraulic properties are assigned based on textural classification, without evaluating the potential impact of these simplifications. This study uses a distributed physics-based model to assess the influence of soil horizons and structure on effective parameterization. This paper tests the viability of two established and widely used hydrogeologic methods for simulating runoff and variably saturated flow through layered soils: (1) accounting for vertical heterogeneity by combining hydrostratigraphic units with contrasting hydraulic properties into homogeneous, anisotropic units and (2) use of established pedotransfer functions based on soil texture alone to estimate water retention and conductivity, without accounting for the influence of pedon structures and hysteresis. The viability of this latter method for capturing the seasonal transition from runoff-dominated to evapotranspiration-dominated regimes is also tested here. For cases tested here, event-based simulations using simplified vertical heterogeneity did not capture the state-dependent anisotropy and complex combinations of runoff generation mechanisms resulting from permeability contrasts in layered hillslopes with complex topography. Continuous simulations using pedotransfer functions that do not account for the influence of soil structure and hysteresis generally over-predicted runoff, leading to propagation of substantial water balance errors. Analysis suggests that identifying a dominant hydropedological unit provides the most acceptable simplification of subsurface layering and that modified pedotransfer functions with steeper soil-water retention curves might adequately capture the influence of soil structure and hysteresis on hydrologic response in headwater catchments.

  1. Parameterized Finite Element Modeling and Buckling Analysis of Six Typical Composite Grid Cylindrical Shells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Changliang; Wang, Junbiao; Liu, Chuang

    2014-10-01

    Six typical composite grid cylindrical shells are constructed by superimposing three basic types of ribs. Then buckling behavior and structural efficiency of these shells are analyzed under axial compression, pure bending, torsion and transverse bending by finite element (FE) models. The FE models are created by a parametrical FE modeling approach that defines FE models with original natural twisted geometry and orients cross-sections of beam elements exactly. And the approach is parameterized and coded by Patran Command Language (PCL). The demonstrations of FE modeling indicate the program enables efficient generation of FE models and facilitates parametric studies and design of grid shells. Using the program, the effects of helical angles on the buckling behavior of six typical grid cylindrical shells are determined. The results of these studies indicate that the triangle grid and rotated triangle grid cylindrical shell are more efficient than others under axial compression and pure bending, whereas under torsion and transverse bending, the hexagon grid cylindrical shell is most efficient. Additionally, buckling mode shapes are compared and provide an understanding of composite grid cylindrical shells that is useful in preliminary design of such structures.

  2. Parameterization and Uncertainty Analysis of SWAT model in Hydrological Simulation of Chaohe River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jie, M.; Zhang, J.; Guo, B. B.

    2017-12-01

    As a typical distributed hydrological model, the SWAT model also has a challenge in calibrating parameters and analysis their uncertainty. This paper chooses the Chaohe River Basin China as the study area, through the establishment of the SWAT model, loading the DEM data of the Chaohe river basin, the watershed is automatically divided into several sub-basins. Analyzing the land use, soil and slope which are on the basis of the sub-basins and calculating the hydrological response unit (HRU) of the study area, after running SWAT model, the runoff simulation values in the watershed are obtained. On this basis, using weather data, known daily runoff of three hydrological stations, combined with the SWAT-CUP automatic program and the manual adjustment method are used to analyze the multi-site calibration of the model parameters. Furthermore, the GLUE algorithm is used to analyze the parameters uncertainty of the SWAT model. Through the sensitivity analysis, calibration and uncertainty study of SWAT, the results indicate that the parameterization of the hydrological characteristics of the Chaohe river is successful and feasible which can be used to simulate the Chaohe river basin.

  3. A new parameterization for integrated population models to document amphibian reintroductions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duarte, Adam; Pearl, Christopher A; Adams, Michael J; Peterson, James T

    2017-09-01

    Managers are increasingly implementing reintroduction programs as part of a global effort to alleviate amphibian declines. Given uncertainty in factors affecting populations and a need to make recurring decisions to achieve objectives, adaptive management is a useful component of these efforts. A major impediment to the estimation of demographic rates often used to parameterize and refine decision-support models is that life-stage-specific monitoring data are frequently sparse for amphibians. We developed a new parameterization for integrated population models to match the ecology of amphibians and capitalize on relatively inexpensive monitoring data to document amphibian reintroductions. We evaluate the capability of this model by fitting it to Oregon spotted frog (Rana pretiosa) monitoring data collected from 2007 to 2014 following their reintroduction within the Klamath Basin, Oregon, USA. The number of egg masses encountered and the estimated adult and metamorph abundances generally increased following reintroduction. We found that survival probability from egg to metamorph ranged from 0.01 in 2008 to 0.09 in 2009 and was not related to minimum spring temperatures, metamorph survival probability ranged from 0.13 in 2010-2011 to 0.86 in 2012-2013 and was positively related to mean monthly temperatures (logit-scale slope = 2.37), adult survival probability was lower for founders (0.40) than individuals recruited after reintroduction (0.56), and the mean number of egg masses per adult female was 0.74. Our study is the first to test hypotheses concerning Oregon spotted frog egg-to-metamorph and metamorph-to-adult transition probabilities in the wild and document their response at multiple life stages following reintroduction. Furthermore, we provide an example to illustrate how the structure of our integrated population model serves as a useful foundation for amphibian decision-support models within adaptive management programs. The integration of multiple, but

  4. Basic Concepts for Convection Parameterization in Weather Forecast and Climate Models: COST Action ES0905 Final Report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun–Ichi Yano

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The research network “Basic Concepts for Convection Parameterization in Weather Forecast and Climate Models” was organized with European funding (COST Action ES0905 for the period of 2010–2014. Its extensive brainstorming suggests how the subgrid-scale parameterization problem in atmospheric modeling, especially for convection, can be examined and developed from the point of view of a robust theoretical basis. Our main cautions are current emphasis on massive observational data analyses and process studies. The closure and the entrainment–detrainment problems are identified as the two highest priorities for convection parameterization under the mass–flux formulation. The need for a drastic change of the current European research culture as concerns policies and funding in order not to further deplete the visions of the European researchers focusing on those basic issues is emphasized.

  5. Parameterization of water vapor using high-resolution GPS data and empirical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ningombam, Shantikumar S.; Jade, Sridevi; Shrungeshwara, T. S.

    2018-03-01

    The present work evaluates eleven existing empirical models to estimate Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) over a high-altitude (4500 m amsl), cold-desert environment. These models are tested extensively and used globally to estimate PWV for low altitude sites (below 1000 m amsl). The moist parameters used in the model are: water vapor scale height (Hc), dew point temperature (Td) and water vapor pressure (Es 0). These moist parameters are derived from surface air temperature and relative humidity measured at high temporal resolution from automated weather station. The performance of these models are examined statistically with observed high-resolution GPS (GPSPWV) data over the region (2005-2012). The correlation coefficient (R) between the observed GPSPWV and Model PWV is 0.98 at daily data and varies diurnally from 0.93 to 0.97. Parameterization of moisture parameters were studied in-depth (i.e., 2 h to monthly time scales) using GPSPWV , Td , and Es 0 . The slope of the linear relationships between GPSPWV and Td varies from 0.073°C-1 to 0.106°C-1 (R: 0.83 to 0.97) while GPSPWV and Es 0 varied from 1.688 to 2.209 (R: 0.95 to 0.99) at daily, monthly and diurnal time scales. In addition, the moist parameters for the cold desert, high-altitude environment are examined in-depth at various time scales during 2005-2012.

  6. Improved parameterization of managed grassland in a global process-based vegetation model using Bayesian statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolinski, S.; Müller, C.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Bondeau, A.

    2010-12-01

    More than a quarter of the Earth’s land surface is covered by grassland, which is also the major part (~ 70 %) of the agricultural area. Most of this area is used for livestock production in different degrees of intensity. The dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL (Sitch et al., Global Change Biology, 2003; Bondeau et al., Global Change Biology, 2007) is one of few process-based model that simulates biomass production on managed grasslands at the global scale. The implementation of managed grasslands and its evaluation has received little attention so far, as reference data on grassland productivity are scarce and the definition of grassland extent and usage are highly uncertain. However, grassland productivity is related to large areas, and strongly influences global estimates of carbon and water budgets and should thus be improved. Plants are implemented in LPJmL in an aggregated form as plant functional types assuming that processes concerning carbon and water fluxes are quite similar between species of the same type. Therefore, the parameterization of a functional type is possible with parameters in a physiologically meaningful range of values. The actual choice of the parameter values from the possible and reasonable phase space should satisfy the condition of the best fit of model results and measured data. In order to improve the parameterization of managed grass we follow a combined procedure using model output and measured data of carbon and water fluxes. By comparing carbon and water fluxes simultaneously, we expect well-balanced refinements and avoid over-tuning of the model in only one direction. The comparison of annual biomass from grassland to data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) per country provide an overview about the order of magnitude and the identification of deviations. The comparison of daily net primary productivity, soil respiration and water fluxes at specific sites (FluxNet Data) provides

  7. Parameterization of dust emissions in the global atmospheric chemistry-climate model EMAC: impact of nudging and soil properties

    OpenAIRE

    Astitha, M.; Lelieveld, J.; Kader, M. Abdel; Pozzer, A.; de Meij, A.

    2012-01-01

    Airborne desert dust influences radiative transfer, atmospheric chemistry and dynamics, as well as nutrient transport and deposition. It directly and indirectly affects climate on regional and global scales. Two versions of a parameterization scheme to compute desert dust emissions are incorporated into the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy2.41 Atmospheric Chemistry). One uses a global...

  8. Assessment of a surface-layer parameterization scheme in an atmospheric model for varying meteorological conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. J. Anurose

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The performance of a surface-layer parameterization scheme in a high-resolution regional model (HRM is carried out by comparing the model-simulated sensible heat flux (H with the concurrent in situ measurements recorded at Thiruvananthapuram (8.5° N, 76.9° E, a coastal station in India. With a view to examining the role of atmospheric stability in conjunction with the roughness lengths in the determination of heat exchange coefficient (CH and H for varying meteorological conditions, the model simulations are repeated by assigning different values to the ratio of momentum and thermal roughness lengths (i.e. z0m/z0h in three distinct configurations of the surface-layer scheme designed for the present study. These three configurations resulted in differential behaviour for the varying meteorological conditions, which is attributed to the sensitivity of CH to the bulk Richardson number (RiB under extremely unstable, near-neutral and stable stratification of the atmosphere.

  9. Parameterization of cirrus microphysical and radiative properties in larger-scale models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heymsfield, A.J.; Coen, J.L.

    1994-01-01

    This study exploits measurements in clouds sampled during several field programs to develop and validate parameterizations that represent the physical and radiative properties of convectively generated cirrus clouds in intermediate and large-scale models. The focus is on cirrus anvils because they occur frequently, cover large areas, and play a large role in the radiation budget. Preliminary work focuses on understanding the microphysical, radiative, and dynamical processes that occur in these clouds. A detailed microphysical package has been constructed that considers the growth of the following hydrometer types: water drops, needles, plates, dendrites, columns, bullet rosettes, aggregates, graupel, and hail. Particle growth processes include diffusional and accretional growth, aggregation, sedimentation, and melting. This package is being implemented in a simple dynamical model that tracks the evolution and dispersion of hydrometers in a stratiform anvil cloud. Given the momentum, vapor, and ice fluxes into the stratiform region and the temperature and humidity structure in the anvil's environment, this model will suggest anvil properties and structure

  10. Using Remote Sensing Data to Parameterize Ice Jam Modeling for a Northern Inland Delta

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fan Zhang

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The Slave River is a northern river in Canada, with ice being an important component of its flow regime for at least half of the year. During the spring breakup period, ice jams and ice-jam flooding can occur in the Slave River Delta, which is of benefit for the replenishment of moisture and sediment required to maintain the ecological integrity of the delta. To better understand the ice jam processes that lead to flooding, as well as the replenishment of the delta, the one-dimensional hydraulic river ice model RIVICE was implemented to simulate and explore ice jam formation in the Slave River Delta. Incoming ice volume, a crucial input parameter for RIVICE, was determined by the novel approach of using MODIS space-born remote sensing imagery. Space-borne and air-borne remote sensing data were used to parameterize the upstream ice volume available for ice jamming. Gauged data was used to complement modeling calibration and validation. HEC-RAS, another one-dimensional hydrodynamic model, was used to determine ice volumes required for equilibrium jams and the upper limit of ice volume that a jam can sustain, as well as being used as a threshold for the volumes estimated by the dynamic ice jam simulations using RIVICE. Parameter sensitivity analysis shows that morphological and hydraulic properties have great impacts on the ice jam length and water depth in the Slave River Delta.

  11. Approaches in highly parameterized inversion - PEST++, a Parameter ESTimation code optimized for large environmental models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welter, David E.; Doherty, John E.; Hunt, Randall J.; Muffels, Christopher T.; Tonkin, Matthew J.; Schreuder, Willem A.

    2012-01-01

    An object-oriented parameter estimation code was developed to incorporate benefits of object-oriented programming techniques for solving large parameter estimation modeling problems. The code is written in C++ and is a formulation and expansion of the algorithms included in PEST, a widely used parameter estimation code written in Fortran. The new code is called PEST++ and is designed to lower the barriers of entry for users and developers while providing efficient algorithms that can accommodate large, highly parameterized problems. This effort has focused on (1) implementing the most popular features of PEST in a fashion that is easy for novice or experienced modelers to use and (2) creating a software design that is easy to extend; that is, this effort provides a documented object-oriented framework designed from the ground up to be modular and extensible. In addition, all PEST++ source code and its associated libraries, as well as the general run manager source code, have been integrated in the Microsoft Visual Studio® 2010 integrated development environment. The PEST++ code is designed to provide a foundation for an open-source development environment capable of producing robust and efficient parameter estimation tools for the environmental modeling community into the future.

  12. Factors influencing the parameterization of anvil clouds within general circulation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leone, J.M. Jr.; Chin, H.N.

    1994-01-01

    The overall goal of this project is to improve the representation of clouds and their effects within global climate models (GCMs). We have concentrated on a small portion of the overall goal, the evolution of convectively generated cirrus clouds and their effects on the large-scale environment. Because of the large range of time and length scales involved, we have been using a multi-scale attack. For the early time generation and development of the cirrus anvil, we are using a cloud-scale model with horizontal resolution of 1 to 2 kilometers; for the larger scale transport by the larger scale flow, we are using a mesoscale model with a horizontal resolution of 20 to 60 kilometers. The eventual goal is to use the information obtained from these simulations, together with available observations, to derive improved cloud parameterizations for use in GCMs. This paper presents a new tool, a cirrus generator, that we have developed to aid in our mesoscale studies

  13. A Comparative Study of Nucleation Parameterizations: 2. Three-Dimensional Model Application and Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Following the examination and evaluation of 12 nucleation parameterizations presented in part 1, 11 of them representing binary, ternary, kinetic, and cluster‐activated nucleation theories are evaluated in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Community Multiscale Air Quality ...

  14. Improving Convection and Cloud Parameterization Using ARM Observations and NCAR Community Atmosphere Model CAM5

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Guang J. [Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States)

    2016-11-07

    The fundamental scientific objectives of our research are to use ARM observations and the NCAR CAM5 to understand the large-scale control on convection, and to develop improved convection and cloud parameterizations for use in GCMs.

  15. Spectroscopic measurements of soybeans used to parameterize physiological traits in the AgroIBIS ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, A.; Serbin, S.; Kucharik, C. J.; Townsend, P. A.

    2014-12-01

    Ecosystem models such AgroIBIS require detailed parameterizations of numerous vegetation traits related to leaf structure, biochemistry and photosynthetic capacity to properly assess plant carbon assimilation and yield response to environmental variability. In general, these traits are estimated from a limited number of field measurements or sourced from the literature, but rarely is the full observed range of variability in these traits utilized in modeling activities. In addition, pathogens and pests, such as the exotic soybean aphid (Aphis glycines), which affects photosynthetic pathways in soybean plants by feeding on phloem and sap, can potentially impact plant productivity and yields. Capturing plant responses to pest pressure in conjunction with environmental variability is of considerable interest to managers and the scientific community alike. In this research, we employed full-range (400-2500 nm) field and laboratory spectroscopy to rapidly characterize the leaf biochemical and physiological traits, namely foliar nitrogen, specific leaf area (SLA) and the maximum rate of RuBP carboxylation by the enzyme RuBisCo (Vcmax) in soybean plants, which experienced a broad range of environmental conditions and soybean aphid pressures. We utilized near-surface spectroscopic remote sensing measurements as a means to capture the spatial and temporal patterns of aphid impacts across broad aphid pressure levels. In addition, we used the spectroscopic data to generate a much larger dataset of key model parameters required by AgroIBIS than would be possible through traditional measurements of biochemistry and leaf-level gas exchange. The use of spectroscopic retrievals of soybean traits allowed us to better characterize the variability of plant responses associated with aphid pressure to more accurately model the likely impacts of soybean aphid on soybeans. Our next steps include the coupling of the information derived from our spectral measurements with the Agro

  16. The Explicit-Cloud Parameterized-Pollutant hybrid approach for aerosol-cloud interactions in multiscale modeling framework models: tracer transport results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jr, William I Gustafson; Berg, Larry K; Easter, Richard C; Ghan, Steven J

    2008-01-01

    All estimates of aerosol indirect effects on the global energy balance have either completely neglected the influence of aerosol on convective clouds or treated the influence in a highly parameterized manner. Embedding cloud-resolving models (CRMs) within each grid cell of a global model provides a multiscale modeling framework for treating both the influence of aerosols on convective as well as stratiform clouds and the influence of clouds on the aerosol, but treating the interactions explicitly by simulating all aerosol processes in the CRM is computationally prohibitive. An alternate approach is to use horizontal statistics (e.g., cloud mass flux, cloud fraction, and precipitation) from the CRM simulation to drive a single-column parameterization of cloud effects on the aerosol and then use the aerosol profile to simulate aerosol effects on clouds within the CRM. Here, we present results from the first component of the Explicit-Cloud Parameterized-Pollutant parameterization to be developed, which handles vertical transport of tracers by clouds. A CRM with explicit tracer transport serves as a benchmark. We show that this parameterization, driven by the CRM's cloud mass fluxes, reproduces the CRM tracer transport significantly better than a single-column model that uses a conventional convective cloud parameterization

  17. The Explicit-Cloud Parameterized-Pollutant hybrid approach for aerosol-cloud interactions in multiscale modeling framework models: tracer transport results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jr, William I Gustafson; Berg, Larry K; Easter, Richard C; Ghan, Steven J [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, PO Box 999, MSIN K9-30, Richland, WA (United States)], E-mail: William.Gustafson@pnl.gov

    2008-04-15

    All estimates of aerosol indirect effects on the global energy balance have either completely neglected the influence of aerosol on convective clouds or treated the influence in a highly parameterized manner. Embedding cloud-resolving models (CRMs) within each grid cell of a global model provides a multiscale modeling framework for treating both the influence of aerosols on convective as well as stratiform clouds and the influence of clouds on the aerosol, but treating the interactions explicitly by simulating all aerosol processes in the CRM is computationally prohibitive. An alternate approach is to use horizontal statistics (e.g., cloud mass flux, cloud fraction, and precipitation) from the CRM simulation to drive a single-column parameterization of cloud effects on the aerosol and then use the aerosol profile to simulate aerosol effects on clouds within the CRM. Here, we present results from the first component of the Explicit-Cloud Parameterized-Pollutant parameterization to be developed, which handles vertical transport of tracers by clouds. A CRM with explicit tracer transport serves as a benchmark. We show that this parameterization, driven by the CRM's cloud mass fluxes, reproduces the CRM tracer transport significantly better than a single-column model that uses a conventional convective cloud parameterization.

  18. Evaluating model parameterizations of submicron aerosol scattering and absorption with in situ data from ARCTAS 2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Alvarado

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Accurate modeling of the scattering and absorption of ultraviolet and visible radiation by aerosols is essential for accurate simulations of atmospheric chemistry and climate. Closure studies using in situ measurements of aerosol scattering and absorption can be used to evaluate and improve models of aerosol optical properties without interference from model errors in aerosol emissions, transport, chemistry, or deposition rates. Here we evaluate the ability of four externally mixed, fixed size distribution parameterizations used in global models to simulate submicron aerosol scattering and absorption at three wavelengths using in situ data gathered during the 2008 Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites (ARCTAS campaign. The four models are the NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI Combo model, GEOS-Chem v9-02, the baseline configuration of a version of GEOS-Chem with online radiative transfer calculations (called GC-RT, and the Optical Properties of Aerosol and Clouds (OPAC v3.1 package. We also use the ARCTAS data to perform the first evaluation of the ability of the Aerosol Simulation Program (ASP v2.1 to simulate submicron aerosol scattering and absorption when in situ data on the aerosol size distribution are used, and examine the impact of different mixing rules for black carbon (BC on the results. We find that the GMI model tends to overestimate submicron scattering and absorption at shorter wavelengths by 10–23 %, and that GMI has smaller absolute mean biases for submicron absorption than OPAC v3.1, GEOS-Chem v9-02, or GC-RT. However, the changes to the density and refractive index of BC in GC-RT improve the simulation of submicron aerosol absorption at all wavelengths relative to GEOS-Chem v9-02. Adding a variable size distribution, as in ASP v2.1, improves model performance for scattering but not for absorption, likely due to the assumption in ASP v2.1 that BC is present at a constant mass

  19. IMPROVED PARAMETERIZATION OF WATER CLOUD MODEL FOR HYBRID-POLARIZED BACKSCATTER SIMULATION USING INTERACTION FACTOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Chauhan

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The prime aim of this study was to assess the potential of semi-empirical water cloud model (WCM in simulating hybrid-polarized SAR backscatter signatures (RH and RV retrieved from RISAT-1 data and integrate the results into a graphical user interface (GUI to facilitate easy comprehension and interpretation. A predominant agricultural wheat growing area was selected in Mathura and Bharatpur districts located in the Indian states of Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan respectively to carry out the study. The three-date datasets were acquired covering the crucial growth stages of the wheat crop. In synchrony, the fieldwork was organized to measure crop/soil parameters. The RH and RV backscattering coefficient images were extracted from the SAR data for all the three dates. The effect of four combinations of vegetation descriptors (V1 and V2 viz., LAI-LAI, LAI-Plant water content (PWC, Leaf water area index (LWAI-LWAI, and LAI-Interaction factor (IF on the total RH and RV backscatter was analyzed. The results revealed that WCM calibrated with LAI and IF as the two vegetation descriptors simulated the total RH and RV backscatter values with highest R2 of 0.90 and 0.85 while the RMSE was lowest among the other tested models (1.18 and 1.25 dB, respectively. The theoretical considerations and interpretations have been discussed and examined in the paper. The novelty of this work emanates from the fact that it is a first step towards the modeling of hybrid-polarized backscatter data using an accurately parameterized semi-empirical approach.

  20. Advances in understanding, models and parameterizations of biosphere-atmosphere ammonia exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flechard, C. R.; Massad, R.-S.; Loubet, B.; Personne, E.; Simpson, D.; Bash, J. O.; Cooter, E. J.; Nemitz, E.; Sutton, M. A.

    2013-07-01

    . Their level of complexity depends on their purpose, the spatial scale at which they are applied, the current level of parameterization, and the availability of the input data they require. State-of-the-art solutions for determining the emission/sink Γ potentials through the soil/canopy system include coupled, interactive chemical transport models (CTM) and soil/ecosystem modelling at the regional scale. However, it remains a matter for debate to what extent realistic options for future regional and global models should be based on process-based mechanistic versus empirical and regression-type models. Further discussion is needed on the extent and timescale by which new approaches can be used, such as integration with ecosystem models and satellite observations.

  1. Advances in understanding, models and parameterizations of biosphere-atmosphere ammonia exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. R. Flechard

    2013-07-01

    -chemical species schemes. Their level of complexity depends on their purpose, the spatial scale at which they are applied, the current level of parameterization, and the availability of the input data they require. State-of-the-art solutions for determining the emission/sink Γ potentials through the soil/canopy system include coupled, interactive chemical transport models (CTM and soil/ecosystem modelling at the regional scale. However, it remains a matter for debate to what extent realistic options for future regional and global models should be based on process-based mechanistic versus empirical and regression-type models. Further discussion is needed on the extent and timescale by which new approaches can be used, such as integration with ecosystem models and satellite observations.

  2. Potential decadal predictability and its sensitivity to sea ice albedo parameterization in a global coupled model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koenigk, Torben; Caian, Mihaela; Doescher, Ralf; Wyser, Klaus [Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Rossby Centre, Norrkoeping (Sweden); Koenig Beatty, Christof [Universite Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)

    2012-06-15

    Decadal prediction is one focus of the upcoming 5th IPCC Assessment report. To be able to interpret the results and to further improve the decadal predictions it is important to investigate the potential predictability in the participating climate models. This study analyzes the upper limit of climate predictability on decadal time scales and its dependency on sea ice albedo parameterization by performing two perfect ensemble experiments with the global coupled climate model EC-Earth. In the first experiment, the standard albedo formulation of EC-Earth is used, in the second experiment sea ice albedo is reduced. The potential prognostic predictability is analyzed for a set of oceanic and atmospheric parameters. The decadal predictability of the atmospheric circulation is small. The highest potential predictability was found in air temperature at 2 m height over the northern North Atlantic and the southern South Atlantic. Over land, only a few areas are significantly predictable. The predictability for continental size averages of air temperature is relatively good in all northern hemisphere regions. Sea ice thickness is highly predictable along the ice edges in the North Atlantic Arctic Sector. The meridional overturning circulation is highly predictable in both experiments and governs most of the decadal climate predictability in the northern hemisphere. The experiments using reduced sea ice albedo show some important differences like a generally higher predictability of atmospheric variables in the Arctic or higher predictability of air temperature in Europe. Furthermore, decadal variations are substantially smaller in the simulations with reduced ice albedo, which can be explained by reduced sea ice thickness in these simulations. (orig.)

  3. Creating and parameterizing patient-specific deep brain stimulation pathway-activation models using the hyperdirect pathway as an example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunalan, Kabilar; Chaturvedi, Ashutosh; Howell, Bryan; Duchin, Yuval; Lempka, Scott F; Patriat, Remi; Sapiro, Guillermo; Harel, Noam; McIntyre, Cameron C

    2017-01-01

    Deep brain stimulation (DBS) is an established clinical therapy and computational models have played an important role in advancing the technology. Patient-specific DBS models are now common tools in both academic and industrial research, as well as clinical software systems. However, the exact methodology for creating patient-specific DBS models can vary substantially and important technical details are often missing from published reports. Provide a detailed description of the assembly workflow and parameterization of a patient-specific DBS pathway-activation model (PAM) and predict the response of the hyperdirect pathway to clinical stimulation. Integration of multiple software tools (e.g. COMSOL, MATLAB, FSL, NEURON, Python) enables the creation and visualization of a DBS PAM. An example DBS PAM was developed using 7T magnetic resonance imaging data from a single unilaterally implanted patient with Parkinson's disease (PD). This detailed description implements our best computational practices and most elaborate parameterization steps, as defined from over a decade of technical evolution. Pathway recruitment curves and strength-duration relationships highlight the non-linear response of axons to changes in the DBS parameter settings. Parameterization of patient-specific DBS models can be highly detailed and constrained, thereby providing confidence in the simulation predictions, but at the expense of time demanding technical implementation steps. DBS PAMs represent new tools for investigating possible correlations between brain pathway activation patterns and clinical symptom modulation.

  4. Creating and parameterizing patient-specific deep brain stimulation pathway-activation models using the hyperdirect pathway as an example.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kabilar Gunalan

    Full Text Available Deep brain stimulation (DBS is an established clinical therapy and computational models have played an important role in advancing the technology. Patient-specific DBS models are now common tools in both academic and industrial research, as well as clinical software systems. However, the exact methodology for creating patient-specific DBS models can vary substantially and important technical details are often missing from published reports.Provide a detailed description of the assembly workflow and parameterization of a patient-specific DBS pathway-activation model (PAM and predict the response of the hyperdirect pathway to clinical stimulation.Integration of multiple software tools (e.g. COMSOL, MATLAB, FSL, NEURON, Python enables the creation and visualization of a DBS PAM. An example DBS PAM was developed using 7T magnetic resonance imaging data from a single unilaterally implanted patient with Parkinson's disease (PD. This detailed description implements our best computational practices and most elaborate parameterization steps, as defined from over a decade of technical evolution.Pathway recruitment curves and strength-duration relationships highlight the non-linear response of axons to changes in the DBS parameter settings.Parameterization of patient-specific DBS models can be highly detailed and constrained, thereby providing confidence in the simulation predictions, but at the expense of time demanding technical implementation steps. DBS PAMs represent new tools for investigating possible correlations between brain pathway activation patterns and clinical symptom modulation.

  5. A theory-based parameterization for heterogeneous ice nucleation and implications for the simulation of ice processes in atmospheric models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savre, J.; Ekman, A. M. L.

    2015-05-01

    A new parameterization for heterogeneous ice nucleation constrained by laboratory data and based on classical nucleation theory is introduced. Key features of the parameterization include the following: a consistent and modular modeling framework for treating condensation/immersion and deposition freezing, the possibility to consider various potential ice nucleating particle types (e.g., dust, black carbon, and bacteria), and the possibility to account for an aerosol size distribution. The ice nucleating ability of each aerosol type is described using a contact angle (θ) probability density function (PDF). A new modeling strategy is described to allow the θ PDF to evolve in time so that the most efficient ice nuclei (associated with the lowest θ values) are progressively removed as they nucleate ice. A computationally efficient quasi Monte Carlo method is used to integrate the computed ice nucleation rates over both size and contact angle distributions. The parameterization is employed in a parcel model, forced by an ensemble of Lagrangian trajectories extracted from a three-dimensional simulation of a springtime low-level Arctic mixed-phase cloud, in order to evaluate the accuracy and convergence of the method using different settings. The same model setup is then employed to examine the importance of various parameters for the simulated ice production. Modeling the time evolution of the θ PDF is found to be particularly crucial; assuming a time-independent θ PDF significantly overestimates the ice nucleation rates. It is stressed that the capacity of black carbon (BC) to form ice in the condensation/immersion freezing mode is highly uncertain, in particular at temperatures warmer than -20°C. In its current version, the parameterization most likely overestimates ice initiation by BC.

  6. Impact of a Stochastic Parameterization Scheme on El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the Community Climate System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, H. M.; Berner, J.; Sardeshmukh, P. D.

    2017-12-01

    Stochastic parameterizations have been used for more than a decade in atmospheric models. They provide a way to represent model uncertainty through representing the variability of unresolved sub-grid processes, and have been shown to have a beneficial effect on the spread and mean state for medium- and extended-range forecasts. There is increasing evidence that stochastic parameterization of unresolved processes can improve the bias in mean and variability, e.g. by introducing a noise-induced drift (nonlinear rectification), and by changing the residence time and structure of flow regimes. We present results showing the impact of including the Stochastically Perturbed Parameterization Tendencies scheme (SPPT) in coupled runs of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model, version 4 (CAM4) with historical forcing. SPPT results in a significant improvement in the representation of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation in CAM4, improving the power spectrum, as well as both the inter- and intra-annual variability of tropical pacific sea surface temperatures. We use a Linear Inverse Modelling framework to gain insight into the mechanisms by which SPPT has improved ENSO-variability.

  7. Improvement in the Modeled Representation of North American Monsoon Precipitation Using a Modified Kain–Fritsch Convective Parameterization Scheme

    KAUST Repository

    Luong, Thang

    2018-01-22

    A commonly noted problem in the simulation of warm season convection in the North American monsoon region has been the inability of atmospheric models at the meso-β scales (10 s to 100 s of kilometers) to simulate organized convection, principally mesoscale convective systems. With the use of convective parameterization, high precipitation biases in model simulations are typically observed over the peaks of mountain ranges. To address this issue, the Kain–Fritsch (KF) cumulus parameterization scheme has been modified with new diagnostic equations to compute the updraft velocity, the convective available potential energy closure assumption, and the convective trigger function. The scheme has been adapted for use in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). A numerical weather prediction-type simulation is conducted for the North American Monsoon Experiment Intensive Observing Period 2 and a regional climate simulation is performed, by dynamically downscaling. In both of these applications, there are notable improvements in the WRF model-simulated precipitation due to the better representation of organized, propagating convection. The use of the modified KF scheme for atmospheric model simulations may provide a more computationally economical alternative to improve the representation of organized convection, as compared to convective-permitting simulations at the kilometer scale or a super-parameterization approach.

  8. Usage of Parameterized Fatigue Spectra and Physics-Based Systems Engineering Models for Wind Turbine Component Sizing: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parsons, Taylor; Guo, Yi; Veers, Paul; Dykes, Katherine; Damiani, Rick

    2016-01-26

    Software models that use design-level input variables and physics-based engineering analysis for estimating the mass and geometrical properties of components in large-scale machinery can be very useful for analyzing design trade-offs in complex systems. This study uses DriveSE, an OpenMDAO-based drivetrain model that uses stress and deflection criteria to size drivetrain components within a geared, upwind wind turbine. Because a full lifetime fatigue load spectrum can only be defined using computationally-expensive simulations in programs such as FAST, a parameterized fatigue loads spectrum that depends on wind conditions, rotor diameter, and turbine design life has been implemented. The parameterized fatigue spectrum is only used in this paper to demonstrate the proposed fatigue analysis approach. This paper details a three-part investigation of the parameterized approach and a comparison of the DriveSE model with and without fatigue analysis on the main shaft system. It compares loads from three turbines of varying size and determines if and when fatigue governs drivetrain sizing compared to extreme load-driven design. It also investigates the model's sensitivity to shaft material parameters. The intent of this paper is to demonstrate how fatigue considerations in addition to extreme loads can be brought into a system engineering optimization.

  9. Improving the temperature predictions of subsurface thermal models by using high-quality input data. Part 1: Uncertainty analysis of the thermal-conductivity parameterization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fuchs, Sven; Balling, Niels

    2016-01-01

    The subsurface temperature field and the geothermal conditions in sedimentary basins are frequently examined by using numerical thermal models. For those models, detailed knowledge of rock thermal properties are paramount for a reliable parameterization of layer properties and boundary conditions...

  10. A polar stratospheric cloud parameterization for the global modeling initiative three-dimensional model and its response to stratospheric aircraft

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Considine, D. B.; Douglass, A. R.; Connell, P. S.; Kinnison, D. E.; Rotman, D. A.

    2000-01-01

    We describe a new parameterization of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) which was written for and incorporated into the three-dimensional (3-D) chemistry and transport model (CTM) developed for NASA's Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Project (AEAP) by the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI). The parameterization was designed to respond to changes in NO y and H 2 O produced by high-speed civilian transport (HSCT) emissions. The parameterization predicts surface area densities (SADs) of both Type 1 and Type 2 PSCs for use in heterogeneous chemistry calculations. Type 1 PSCs are assumed to have a supercooled ternary sulfate (STS) composition, and Type 2 PSCs are treated as water ice with a coexisting nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) phase. Sedimentation is treated by assuming that the PSC particles obey lognormal size distributions, resulting in a realistic mass flux of condensed phase H 2 O and HNO 3 . We examine a simulation of the Southern Hemisphere high-latitude lower stratosphere winter and spring seasons driven by temperature and wind fields from a modified version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Middle Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 2 (MACCM2). Predicted PSC SADs and median radii for both Type 1 and Type 2 PSCs are consistent with observations. Gas phase HNO 3 and H 2 O concentrations in the high-latitude lower stratosphere qualitatively agree with Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer (CLAES) HNO 3 and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) H 2 O observations. The residual denitrification and dehydration of the model polar vortex after polar winter compares well with atmospheric trace molecule spectroscopy (ATMOS) observations taken during November 1994. When the NO x and H 2 O emissions of a standard 500-aircraft HSCT fleet with a NO x emission index of 5 are added, NO x and H 2 O concentrations in the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex before winter increase by up to 3%. This results in earlier onset of PSC formation, denitrification, and

  11. Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation Interactions in WRF Model:Sensitivity to Autoconversion Parameterization

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    解小宁; 刘晓东

    2015-01-01

    Cloud-to-rain autoconversion process is an important player in aerosol loading, cloud morphology, and precipitation variations because it can modulate cloud microphysical characteristics depending on the par-ticipation of aerosols, and aff ects the spatio-temporal distribution and total amount of precipitation. By applying the Kessler, the Khairoutdinov-Kogan (KK), and the Dispersion autoconversion parameterization schemes in a set of sensitivity experiments, the indirect eff ects of aerosols on clouds and precipitation are investigated for a deep convective cloud system in Beijing under various aerosol concentration backgrounds from 50 to 10000 cm−3. Numerical experiments show that aerosol-induced precipitation change is strongly dependent on autoconversion parameterization schemes. For the Kessler scheme, the average cumulative precipitation is enhanced slightly with increasing aerosols, whereas surface precipitation is reduced signifi-cantly with increasing aerosols for the KK scheme. Moreover, precipitation varies non-monotonically for the Dispersion scheme, increasing with aerosols at lower concentrations and decreasing at higher concentrations. These diff erent trends of aerosol-induced precipitation change are mainly ascribed to diff erences in rain wa-ter content under these three autoconversion parameterization schemes. Therefore, this study suggests that accurate parameterization of cloud microphysical processes, particularly the cloud-to-rain autoconversion process, is needed for improving the scientifi c understanding of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions.

  12. Modelling heterogeneous ice nucleation on mineral dust and soot with parameterizations based on laboratory experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoose, C.; Hande, L. B.; Mohler, O.; Niemand, M.; Paukert, M.; Reichardt, I.; Ullrich, R.

    2016-12-01

    Between 0 and -37°C, ice formation in clouds is triggered by aerosol particles acting as heterogeneous ice nuclei. At lower temperatures, heterogeneous ice nucleation on aerosols can occur at lower supersaturations than homogeneous freezing of solutes. In laboratory experiments, the ability of different aerosol species (e.g. desert dusts, soot, biological particles) has been studied in detail and quantified via various theoretical or empirical parameterization approaches. For experiments in the AIDA cloud chamber, we have quantified the ice nucleation efficiency via a temperature- and supersaturation dependent ice nucleation active site density. Here we present a new empirical parameterization scheme for immersion and deposition ice nucleation on desert dust and soot based on these experimental data. The application of this parameterization to the simulation of cirrus clouds, deep convective clouds and orographic clouds will be shown, including the extension of the scheme to the treatment of freezing of rain drops. The results are compared to other heterogeneous ice nucleation schemes. Furthermore, an aerosol-dependent parameterization of contact ice nucleation is presented.

  13. The Empirical Canadian High Arctic Ionospheric Model (E-CHAIM): Bottomside Parameterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Themens, D. R.; Jayachandran, P. T.

    2017-12-01

    It is well known that the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) suffers reduced accuracy in its representation of monthly median ionospheric electron density at high latitudes. These inaccuracies are believed to stem, at least in part, from a historical lack of data from these regions. Now, roughly thirty and forty years after the development of the original URSI and CCIR foF2 maps, respectively, there exists a much larger dataset of high latitude observations of ionospheric electron density. These new measurements come in the form of new ionosonde deployments, such as those of the Canadian High Arctic Ionospheric Network, the CHAMP, GRACE, and COSMIC radio occultation missions, and the construction of the Poker Flat, Resolute, and EISCAT Incoherent Scatter Radar systems. These new datasets afford an opportunity to revise the IRI's representation of the high latitude ionosphere. Using a spherical cap harmonic expansion to represent horizontal and diurnal variability and a Fourier expansion in day of year to represent seasonal variations, we have developed a new model of the bottomside ionosphere's electron density for the high latitude ionosphere, above 50N geomagnetic latitude. For the peak heights of the E and F1 layers (hmE and hmF1, respectively), current standards use a constant value for hmE and either use a single-parameter model for hmF1 (IRI) or scale hmF1 with the F peak (NeQuick). For E-CHAIM, we have diverged from this convention to account for the greater variability seen in these characteristics at high latitudes, opting to use a full spherical harmonic model description for each of these characteristics. For the description of the bottomside vertical electron density profile, we present a single-layer model with altitude-varying scale height. The scale height function is taken as the sum three scale height layer functions anchored to the F2 peak, hmF1, and hmE. This parameterization successfully reproduces the structure of the various bottomside

  14. Assessment of two physical parameterization schemes for desert dust emissions in an atmospheric chemistry general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Astitha, M.; Abdel Kader, M.; Pozzer, A.; Lelieveld, J.

    2012-04-01

    Atmospheric particulate matter and more specific desert dust has been the topic of numerous research studies in the past due to the wide range of impacts in the environment and climate and the uncertainty of characterizing and quantifying these impacts in a global scale. In this work we present two physical parameterizations of the desert dust production that have been incorporated in the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy2.41 Atmospheric Chemistry). The scope of this work is to assess the impact of the two physical parameterizations in the global distribution of desert dust and highlight the advantages and disadvantages of using either technique. The dust concentration and deposition has been evaluated using the AEROCOM dust dataset for the year 2000 and data from the MODIS and MISR satellites as well as sun-photometer data from the AERONET network was used to compare the modelled aerosol optical depth with observations. The implementation of the two parameterizations and the simulations using relatively high spatial resolution (T106~1.1deg) has highlighted the large spatial heterogeneity of the dust emission sources as well as the importance of the input parameters (soil size and texture, vegetation, surface wind speed). Also, sensitivity simulations with the nudging option using reanalysis data from ECMWF and without nudging have showed remarkable differences for some areas. Both parameterizations have revealed the difficulty of simulating all arid regions with the same assumptions and mechanisms. Depending on the arid region, each emission scheme performs more or less satisfactorily which leads to the necessity of treating each desert differently. Even though this is a quite different task to accomplish in a global model, some recommendations are given and ideas for future improvements.

  15. A comparison study of convective and microphysical parameterization schemes associated with lightning occurrence in southeastern Brazil using the WRF model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zepka, G. D.; Pinto, O.

    2010-12-01

    The intent of this study is to identify the combination of convective and microphysical WRF parameterizations that better adjusts to lightning occurrence over southeastern Brazil. Twelve thunderstorm days were simulated with WRF model using three different convective parameterizations (Kain-Fritsch, Betts-Miller-Janjic and Grell-Devenyi ensemble) and two different microphysical schemes (Purdue-Lin and WSM6). In order to test the combinations of parameterizations at the same time of lightning occurrence, a comparison was made between the WRF grid point values of surface-based Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), Lifted Index (LI), K-Index (KI) and equivalent potential temperature (theta-e), and the lightning locations nearby those grid points. Histograms were built up to show the ratio of the occurrence of different values of these variables for WRF grid points associated with lightning to all WRF grid points. The first conclusion from this analysis was that the choice of microphysics did not change appreciably the results as much as different convective schemes. The Betts-Miller-Janjic parameterization has generally worst skill to relate higher magnitudes for all four variables to lightning occurrence. The differences between the Kain-Fritsch and Grell-Devenyi ensemble schemes were not large. This fact can be attributed to the similar main assumptions used by these schemes that consider entrainment/detrainment processes along the cloud boundaries. After that, we examined three case studies using the combinations of convective and microphysical options without the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme. Differently from the traditional verification procedures, fields of surface-based CAPE from WRF 10 km domain were compared to the Eta model, satellite images and lightning data. In general the more reliable convective scheme was Kain-Fritsch since it provided more consistent distribution of the CAPE fields with respect to satellite images and lightning data.

  16. A linear CO chemistry parameterization in a chemistry-transport model: evaluation and application to data assimilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Claeyman

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an evaluation of a new linear parameterization valid for the troposphere and the stratosphere, based on a first order approximation of the carbon monoxide (CO continuity equation. This linear scheme (hereinafter noted LINCO has been implemented in the 3-D Chemical Transport Model (CTM MOCAGE (MOdèle de Chimie Atmospherique Grande Echelle. First, a one and a half years of LINCO simulation has been compared to output obtained from a detailed chemical scheme output. The mean differences between both schemes are about ±25 ppbv (part per billion by volume or 15% in the troposphere and ±10 ppbv or 100% in the stratosphere. Second, LINCO has been compared to diverse observations from satellite instruments covering the troposphere (Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere: MOPITT and the stratosphere (Microwave Limb Sounder: MLS and also from aircraft (Measurements of ozone and water vapour by Airbus in-service aircraft: MOZAIC programme mostly flying in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS. In the troposphere, the LINCO seasonal variations as well as the vertical and horizontal distributions are quite close to MOPITT CO observations. However, a bias of ~−40 ppbv is observed at 700 Pa between LINCO and MOPITT. In the stratosphere, MLS and LINCO present similar large-scale patterns, except over the poles where the CO concentration is underestimated by the model. In the UTLS, LINCO presents small biases less than 2% compared to independent MOZAIC profiles. Third, we assimilated MOPITT CO using a variational 3D-FGAT (First Guess at Appropriate Time method in conjunction with MOCAGE for a long run of one and a half years. The data assimilation greatly improves the vertical CO distribution in the troposphere from 700 to 350 hPa compared to independent MOZAIC profiles. At 146 hPa, the assimilated CO distribution is also improved compared to MLS observations by reducing the bias up to a factor of 2 in the tropics

  17. Sensitivity of U.S. summer precipitation to model resolution and convective parameterizations across gray zone resolutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Yang; Leung, L. Ruby; Zhao, Chun; Hagos, Samson

    2017-03-01

    Simulating summer precipitation is a significant challenge for climate models that rely on cumulus parameterizations to represent moist convection processes. Motivated by recent advances in computing that support very high-resolution modeling, this study aims to systematically evaluate the effects of model resolution and convective parameterizations across the gray zone resolutions. Simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model were conducted at grid spacings of 36 km, 12 km, and 4 km for two summers over the conterminous U.S. The convection-permitting simulations at 4 km grid spacing are most skillful in reproducing the observed precipitation spatial distributions and diurnal variability. Notable differences are found between simulations with the traditional Kain-Fritsch (KF) and the scale-aware Grell-Freitas (GF) convection schemes, with the latter more skillful in capturing the nocturnal timing in the Great Plains and North American monsoon regions. The GF scheme also simulates a smoother transition from convective to large-scale precipitation as resolution increases, resulting in reduced sensitivity to model resolution compared to the KF scheme. Nonhydrostatic dynamics has a positive impact on precipitation over complex terrain even at 12 km and 36 km grid spacings. With nudging of the winds toward observations, we show that the conspicuous warm biases in the Southern Great Plains are related to precipitation biases induced by large-scale circulation biases, which are insensitive to model resolution. Overall, notable improvements in simulating summer rainfall and its diurnal variability through convection-permitting modeling and scale-aware parameterizations suggest promising venues for improving climate simulations of water cycle processes.

  18. AD Model Builder: using automatic differentiation for statistical inference of highly parameterized complex nonlinear models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fournier, David A.; Skaug, Hans J.; Ancheta, Johnoel

    2011-01-01

    Many criteria for statistical parameter estimation, such as maximum likelihood, are formulated as a nonlinear optimization problem.Automatic Differentiation Model Builder (ADMB) is a programming framework based on automatic differentiation, aimed at highly nonlinear models with a large number...... of such a feature is the generic implementation of Laplace approximation of high-dimensional integrals for use in latent variable models. We also review the literature in which ADMB has been used, and discuss future development of ADMB as an open source project. Overall, the main advantages ofADMB are flexibility...

  19. New parameterization of external and induced fields in geomagnetic field modeling, and a candidate model for IGRF 2005

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Nils; Sabaka, T.J.; Lowes, F.

    2005-01-01

    When deriving spherical harmonic models of the Earth's magnetic field, low-degree external field contributions are traditionally considered by assuming that their expansion coefficient q(1)(0) varies linearly with the D-st-index, while induced contributions are considered assuming a constant ratio...... Q(1) of induced to external coefficients. A value of Q(1) = 0.27 was found from Magsat data and has been used by several authors when deriving recent field models from Orsted and CHAMP data. We describe a new approach that considers external and induced field based on a separation of D-st = E-st + I......-st into external (E-st) and induced (I-st) parts using a 1D model of mantle conductivity. The temporal behavior of q(1)(0) and of the corresponding induced coefficient are parameterized by E-st and I-st, respectively. In addition, we account for baseline-instabilities of D-st by estimating a value of q(1...

  20. The Effect of Subsurface Parameterizations on Modeled Flows in the Catchment Land Surface Model, Fortuna 2.5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roningen, J. M.; Eylander, J. B.

    2014-12-01

    Groundwater use and management is subject to economic, legal, technical, and informational constraints and incentives at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Planned and de facto management practices influenced by tax structures, legal frameworks, and agricultural and trade policies that vary at the country scale may have medium- and long-term effects on the ability of a region to support current and projected agricultural and industrial development. USACE is working to explore and develop global-scale, physically-based frameworks to serve as a baseline for hydrologic policy comparisons and consequence assessment, and such frameworks must include a reasonable representation of groundwater systems. To this end, we demonstrate the effects of different subsurface parameterizations, scaling, and meteorological forcings on surface and subsurface components of the Catchment Land Surface Model Fortuna v2.5 (Koster et al. 2000). We use the Land Information System 7 (Kumar et al. 2006) to process model runs using meteorological components of the Air Force Weather Agency's AGRMET forcing data from 2006 through 2011. Seasonal patterns and trends are examined in areas of the Upper Nile basin, northern China, and the Mississippi Valley. We also discuss the relevance of the model's representation of the catchment deficit with respect to local hydrogeologic structures.

  1. Cross-section parameterization of the pebble bed modular reactor using the dimension-wise expansion model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zivanovic, Rastko; Bokov, Pavel M.

    2010-01-01

    This paper discusses the use of the dimension-wise expansion model for cross-section parameterization. The components of the model were approximated with tensor products of orthogonal polynomials. As we demonstrate, the model for a specific cross-section can be built in a systematic way directly from data without any a priori knowledge of its structure. The methodology is able to construct a finite basis of orthogonal polynomials that is required to approximate a cross-section with pre-specified accuracy. The methodology includes a global sensitivity analysis that indicates irrelevant state parameters which can be excluded from the model without compromising the accuracy of the approximation and without repetition of the fitting process. To fit the dimension-wise expansion model, Randomised Quasi-Monte-Carlo Integration and Sparse Grid Integration methods were used. To test the parameterization methods with different integrations embedded we have used the OECD PBMR 400 MW benchmark problem. It has been shown in this paper that the Sparse Grid Integration achieves pre-specified accuracy with a significantly (up to 1-2 orders of magnitude) smaller number of samples compared to Randomised Quasi-Monte-Carlo Integration.

  2. Application of the dual Youla parameterization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niemann, Hans Henrik

    1999-01-01

    Different applications of the parameterization of all systems stabilized by a given controller, i.e. the dual Youla parameterization, are considered in this paper. It will be shown how the parameterization can be applied in connection with controller design, adaptive controllers, model validation...

  3. Human impact parameterizations in global hydrological models improve estimates of monthly discharges and hydrological extremes: a multi-model validation study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veldkamp, T I E; Zhao, F; Ward, P J; Moel, H de; Aerts, J C J H; Schmied, H Müller; Portmann, F T; Masaki, Y; Pokhrel, Y; Liu, X; Satoh, Yusuke; Gerten, Dieter; Gosling, S N; Zaherpour, J; Wada, Yoshihide

    2018-01-01

    Human activity has a profound influence on river discharges, hydrological extremes and water-related hazards. In this study, we compare the results of five state-of-the-art global hydrological models (GHMs) with observations to examine the role of human impact parameterizations (HIP) in the

  4. Technical report series on global modeling and data assimilation. Volume 3: An efficient thermal infrared radiation parameterization for use in general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suarex, Max J. (Editor); Chou, Ming-Dah

    1994-01-01

    A detailed description of a parameterization for thermal infrared radiative transfer designed specifically for use in global climate models is presented. The parameterization includes the effects of the main absorbers of terrestrial radiation: water vapor, carbon dioxide, and ozone. While being computationally efficient, the schemes compute very accurately the clear-sky fluxes and cooling rates from the Earth's surface to 0.01 mb. This combination of accuracy and speed makes the parameterization suitable for both tropospheric and middle atmospheric modeling applications. Since no transmittances are precomputed the atmospheric layers and the vertical distribution of the absorbers may be freely specified. The scheme can also account for any vertical distribution of fractional cloudiness with arbitrary optical thickness. These features make the parameterization very flexible and extremely well suited for use in climate modeling studies. In addition, the numerics and the FORTRAN implementation have been carefully designed to conserve both memory and computer time. This code should be particularly attractive to those contemplating long-term climate simulations, wishing to model the middle atmosphere, or planning to use a large number of levels in the vertical.

  5. Application of mathematical models to metronomic chemotherapy: What can be inferred from minimal parameterized models?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ledzewicz, Urszula; Schättler, Heinz

    2017-08-10

    Metronomic chemotherapy refers to the frequent administration of chemotherapy at relatively low, minimally toxic doses without prolonged treatment interruptions. Different from conventional or maximum-tolerated-dose chemotherapy which aims at an eradication of all malignant cells, in a metronomic dosing the goal often lies in the long-term management of the disease when eradication proves elusive. Mathematical modeling and subsequent analysis (theoretical as well as numerical) have become an increasingly more valuable tool (in silico) both for determining conditions under which specific treatment strategies should be preferred and for numerically optimizing treatment regimens. While elaborate, computationally-driven patient specific schemes that would optimize the timing and drug dose levels are still a part of the future, such procedures may become instrumental in making chemotherapy effective in situations where it currently fails. Ideally, mathematical modeling and analysis will develop into an additional decision making tool in the complicated process that is the determination of efficient chemotherapy regimens. In this article, we review some of the results that have been obtained about metronomic chemotherapy from mathematical models and what they infer about the structure of optimal treatment regimens. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Climate Simulations from Super-parameterized and Conventional General Circulation Models with a Third-order Turbulence Closure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kuan-Man; Cheng, Anning

    2014-05-01

    A high-resolution cloud-resolving model (CRM) embedded in a general circulation model (GCM) is an attractive alternative for climate modeling because it replaces all traditional cloud parameterizations and explicitly simulates cloud physical processes in each grid column of the GCM. Such an approach is called "Multiscale Modeling Framework." MMF still needs to parameterize the subgrid-scale (SGS) processes associated with clouds and large turbulent eddies because circulations associated with planetary boundary layer (PBL) and in-cloud turbulence are unresolved by CRMs with horizontal grid sizes on the order of a few kilometers. A third-order turbulence closure (IPHOC) has been implemented in the CRM component of the super-parameterized Community Atmosphere Model (SPCAM). IPHOC is used to predict (or diagnose) fractional cloudiness and the variability of temperature and water vapor at scales that are not resolved on the CRM's grid. This model has produced promised results, especially for low-level cloud climatology, seasonal variations and diurnal variations (Cheng and Xu 2011, 2013a, b; Xu and Cheng 2013a, b). Because of the enormous computational cost of SPCAM-IPHOC, which is 400 times of a conventional CAM, we decided to bypass the CRM and implement the IPHOC directly to CAM version 5 (CAM5). IPHOC replaces the PBL/stratocumulus, shallow convection, and cloud macrophysics parameterizations in CAM5. Since there are large discrepancies in the spatial and temporal scales between CRM and CAM5, IPHOC used in CAM5 has to be modified from that used in SPCAM. In particular, we diagnose all second- and third-order moments except for the fluxes. These prognostic and diagnostic moments are used to select a double-Gaussian probability density function to describe the SGS variability. We also incorporate a diagnostic PBL height parameterization to represent the strong inversion above PBL. The goal of this study is to compare the simulation of the climatology from these three

  7. Remote Sensing Image Enhancement Based on Non-subsampled Shearlet Transform and Parameterized Logarithmic Image Processing Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TAO Feixiang

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Aiming at parts of remote sensing images with dark brightness and low contrast, a remote sensing image enhancement method based on non-subsampled Shearlet transform and parameterized logarithmic image processing model is proposed in this paper to improve the visual effects and interpretability of remote sensing images. Firstly, a remote sensing image is decomposed into a low-frequency component and high frequency components by non-subsampled Shearlet transform.Then the low frequency component is enhanced according to PLIP (parameterized logarithmic image processing model, which can improve the contrast of image, while the improved fuzzy enhancement method is used to enhance the high frequency components in order to highlight the information of edges and details. A large number of experimental results show that, compared with five kinds of image enhancement methods such as bidirectional histogram equalization method, the method based on stationary wavelet transform and the method based on non-subsampled contourlet transform, the proposed method has advantages in both subjective visual effects and objective quantitative evaluation indexes such as contrast and definition, which can more effectively improve the contrast of remote sensing image and enhance edges and texture details with better visual effects.

  8. Direct spondylolisthesis identification and measurement in MR/CT using detectors trained by articulated parameterized spine model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Yunliang; Leung, Stephanie; Warrington, James; Pandey, Sachin; Shmuilovich, Olga; Li, Shuo

    2017-02-01

    The identification of spondylolysis and spondylolisthesis is important in spinal diagnosis, rehabilitation, and surgery planning. Accurate and automatic detection of spinal portion with spondylolisthesis problem will significantly reduce the manual work of physician and provide a more robust evaluation for the spine condition. Most existing automatic identification methods adopted the indirect approach which used vertebrae locations to measure the spondylolisthesis. However, these methods relied heavily on automatic vertebra detection which often suffered from the pool spatial accuracy and the lack of validated pathological training samples. In this study, we present a novel spondylolisthesis detection method which can directly locate the irregular spine portion and output the corresponding grading. The detection is done by a set of learning-based detectors which are discriminatively trained by synthesized spondylolisthesis image samples. To provide sufficient pathological training samples, we used a parameterized spine model to synthesize different types of spondylolysis images from real MR/CT scans. The parameterized model can automatically locate the vertebrae in spine images and estimate their pose orientations, and can inversely alter the vertebrae locations and poses by changing the corresponding parameters. Various training samples can then be generated from only a few spine MR/CT images. The preliminary results suggest great potential for the fast and efficient spondylolisthesis identification and measurement in both MR and CT spine images.

  9. Modelling of primary aerosols in the chemical transport model MOCAGE: development and evaluation of aerosol physical parameterizations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Sič

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with recent improvements to the global chemical transport model of Météo-France MOCAGE (Modèle de Chimie Atmosphérique à Grande Echelle that consists of updates to different aerosol parameterizations. MOCAGE only contains primary aerosol species: desert dust, sea salt, black carbon, organic carbon, and also volcanic ash in the case of large volcanic eruptions. We introduced important changes to the aerosol parameterization concerning emissions, wet deposition and sedimentation. For the emissions, size distribution and wind calculations are modified for desert dust aerosols, and a surface sea temperature dependant source function is introduced for sea salt aerosols. Wet deposition is modified toward a more physically realistic representation by introducing re-evaporation of falling rain and snowfall scavenging and by changing the in-cloud scavenging scheme along with calculations of precipitation cloud cover and rain properties. The sedimentation scheme update includes changes regarding the stability and viscosity calculations. Independent data from satellites (MODIS, SEVIRI, the ground (AERONET, EMEP, and a model inter-comparison project (AeroCom are compared with MOCAGE simulations and show that the introduced changes brought a significant improvement on aerosol representation, properties and global distribution. Emitted quantities of desert dust and sea salt, as well their lifetimes, moved closer towards values of AeroCom estimates and the multi-model average. When comparing the model simulations with MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD observations over the oceans, the updated model configuration shows a decrease in the modified normalized mean bias (MNMB; from 0.42 to 0.10 and a better correlation (from 0.06 to 0.32 in terms of the geographical distribution and the temporal variability. The updates corrected a strong positive MNMB in the sea salt representation at high latitudes (from 0.65 to 0.16, and a negative MNMB in

  10. Electroglottographic parameterization of the effects of gender, vowel and phonatory registers on vocal fold vibratory patterns: an Indian perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Nilanjan; Kumar, Suman; Chatterjee, Indranil; Mukherjee, Biswarup

    2011-01-01

    In-depth study on laryngeal biomechanics and vocal fold vibratory patterns reveal that a single vibratory cycle can be divided into two major phases, the closed and open phase, which is subdivided into opening and closing phases. Studies reveal that the relative time course of abduction and adduction, which in turn is dependent on the relative relaxing and tensing of the vocal fold cover and body, to be the determining factor in production of a particular vocal register like the modal (or chest), falsetto, glottal fry registers. Studies further point out Electroglottography to be particularly suitable for the study of vocal vibratory patterns during register changes. However, to date, there has been limited study on quantitative parameterization of EGG wave form in vocal fry register. Moreover, contradictory findings abound in literature regarding effects of gender and vowel types on vocal vibratory patterns, especially during phonation at different registers. The present study endeavors to find out the effects of vowel and gender differences on the vocal fold vibratory patterns in different registers and how these would be reflected in standard EGG parameters of Contact Quotient (CQ) and Contact Index (CI), taking into consideration the Indian sociolinguistic context. Electroglottographic recordings of 10 young adults (5 males and 5 females) were taken while the subjects phonated the three vowels /a/,/i/,/u/ each in two vocal registers, modal and vocal fry. Obtained raw EGG were further normalized using the Derived EGG algorithm and theCQ and CI values were derived. Obtained data were subject to statistical analysis using the 3-way ANOVA with gender, vowel and vocal register as the three variables. Post-hoc Dunnett C multiple comparison analysis were also performed. Results reveal that CQ values are significantly higher in vocal fry than modal phonation for both males and females, indicating a relatively hyperconstricted vocal system during vocal fry. The males

  11. Analysis of different atmospheric physical parameterizations in COAWST modeling system for the Tropical Storm Nock-ten application

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ren, Danqin; Du, Jianting; Hua, Feng

    2016-01-01

    the storm center area. As a result, using Kain–Fritsch cumulus scheme, Goddard shortwave radiation scheme and RRTM longwave radiation scheme in WRF may lead to much larger wind intensity, significant wave height, current intensity, as well as lower SST and sea surface pressure. Thus......A coupled ocean–atmosphere–wave–sediment transport modeling system was applied to study the atmosphere and ocean dynamics during Tropical Storm Nock-ten. Different atmospheric physical parameterizations in WRF model were investigated through ten groups of numerical experiments. Results...... of atmosphere, ocean wave and current features were compared with storm observations, ERA-Interim data, NOAA sea surface temperature data, AVISO current data and HYCOM data, respectively. It was found that the storm track and intensity are sensitive to the cumulus and radiation schemes in WRF, especially around...

  12. Approaches to highly parameterized inversion: A guide to using PEST for model-parameter and predictive-uncertainty analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doherty, John E.; Hunt, Randall J.; Tonkin, Matthew J.

    2010-01-01

    Analysis of the uncertainty associated with parameters used by a numerical model, and with predictions that depend on those parameters, is fundamental to the use of modeling in support of decisionmaking. Unfortunately, predictive uncertainty analysis with regard to models can be very computationally demanding, due in part to complex constraints on parameters that arise from expert knowledge of system properties on the one hand (knowledge constraints) and from the necessity for the model parameters to assume values that allow the model to reproduce historical system behavior on the other hand (calibration constraints). Enforcement of knowledge and calibration constraints on parameters used by a model does not eliminate the uncertainty in those parameters. In fact, in many cases, enforcement of calibration constraints simply reduces the uncertainties associated with a number of broad-scale combinations of model parameters that collectively describe spatially averaged system properties. The uncertainties associated with other combinations of parameters, especially those that pertain to small-scale parameter heterogeneity, may not be reduced through the calibration process. To the extent that a prediction depends on system-property detail, its postcalibration variability may be reduced very little, if at all, by applying calibration constraints; knowledge constraints remain the only limits on the variability of predictions that depend on such detail. Regrettably, in many common modeling applications, these constraints are weak. Though the PEST software suite was initially developed as a tool for model calibration, recent developments have focused on the evaluation of model-parameter and predictive uncertainty. As a complement to functionality that it provides for highly parameterized inversion (calibration) by means of formal mathematical regularization techniques, the PEST suite provides utilities for linear and nonlinear error-variance and uncertainty analysis in

  13. Improvement and implementation of a parameterization for shallow cumulus in the global climate model ECHAM5-HAM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isotta, Francesco; Spichtinger, Peter; Lohmann, Ulrike; von Salzen, Knut

    2010-05-01

    Convection is a crucial component of weather and climate. Its parameterization in General Circulation Models (GCMs) is one of the largest sources of uncertainty. Convection redistributes moisture and heat, affects the radiation budget and transports tracers from the PBL to higher levels. Shallow convection is very common over the globe, in particular over the oceans in the trade wind regions. A recently developed shallow convection scheme by von Salzen and McFarlane (2002) is implemented in the ECHAM5-HAM GCM instead of the standard convection scheme by Tiedtke (1989). The scheme of von Salzen and McFarlane (2002) is a bulk parameterization for an ensemble of transient shallow cumuli. A life cycle is considered, as well as inhomogeneities in the horizontal distribution of in-cloud properties due to mixing. The shallow convection scheme is further developed to take the ice phase and precipitation in form of rain and snow into account. The double moment microphysics scheme for cloud droplets and ice crystals implemented is consistent with the stratiform scheme and with the other types of convective clouds. The ice phase permits to alter the criterion to distinguish between shallow convection and the other two types of convection, namely deep and mid-level, which are still calculated by the Tiedtke (1989) scheme. The lunching layer of the test parcel in the shallow convection scheme is chosen as the one with maximum moist static energy in the three lowest levels. The latter is modified to the ``frozen moist static energy'' to account for the ice phase. Moreover, tracers (e.g. aerosols) are transported in the updraft and scavenged in and below clouds. As a first test of the performance of the new scheme and the interaction with the rest of the model, the Barbados Oceanographic and Meteorological EXperiment (BOMEX) and the Rain In Cumulus over the Ocean experiment (RICO) case are simulated with the single column model (SCM) and the results are compared with large eddy

  14. A photon source model based on particle transport in a parameterized accelerator structure for Monte Carlo dose calculations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishizawa, Yoshiki; Dobashi, Suguru; Kadoya, Noriyuki; Ito, Kengo; Chiba, Takahito; Takayama, Yoshiki; Sato, Kiyokazu; Takeda, Ken

    2018-05-17

    An accurate source model of a medical linear accelerator is essential for Monte Carlo (MC) dose calculations. This study aims to propose an analytical photon source model based on particle transport in parameterized accelerator structures, focusing on a more realistic determination of linac photon spectra compared to existing approaches. We designed the primary and secondary photon sources based on the photons attenuated and scattered by a parameterized flattening filter. The primary photons were derived by attenuating bremsstrahlung photons based on the path length in the filter. Conversely, the secondary photons were derived from the decrement of the primary photons in the attenuation process. This design facilitates these sources to share the free parameters of the filter shape and be related to each other through the photon interaction in the filter. We introduced two other parameters of the primary photon source to describe the particle fluence in penumbral regions. All the parameters are optimized based on calculated dose curves in water using the pencil-beam-based algorithm. To verify the modeling accuracy, we compared the proposed model with the phase space data (PSD) of the Varian TrueBeam 6 and 15 MV accelerators in terms of the beam characteristics and the dose distributions. The EGS5 Monte Carlo code was used to calculate the dose distributions associated with the optimized model and reference PSD in a homogeneous water phantom and a heterogeneous lung phantom. We calculated the percentage of points passing 1D and 2D gamma analysis with 1%/1 mm criteria for the dose curves and lateral dose distributions, respectively. The optimized model accurately reproduced the spectral curves of the reference PSD both on- and off-axis. The depth dose and lateral dose profiles of the optimized model also showed good agreement with those of the reference PSD. The passing rates of the 1D gamma analysis with 1%/1 mm criteria between the model and PSD were 100% for 4

  15. Evaluating cloud processes in large-scale models: Of idealized case studies, parameterization testbeds and single-column modelling on climate time-scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neggers, Roel

    2016-04-01

    Boundary-layer schemes have always formed an integral part of General Circulation Models (GCMs) used for numerical weather and climate prediction. The spatial and temporal scales associated with boundary-layer processes and clouds are typically much smaller than those at which GCMs are discretized, which makes their representation through parameterization a necessity. The need for generally applicable boundary-layer parameterizations has motivated many scientific studies, which in effect has created its own active research field in the atmospheric sciences. Of particular interest has been the evaluation of boundary-layer schemes at "process-level". This means that parameterized physics are studied in isolated mode from the larger-scale circulation, using prescribed forcings and excluding any upscale interaction. Although feedbacks are thus prevented, the benefit is an enhanced model transparency, which might aid an investigator in identifying model errors and understanding model behavior. The popularity and success of the process-level approach is demonstrated by the many past and ongoing model inter-comparison studies that have been organized by initiatives such as GCSS/GASS. A red line in the results of these studies is that although most schemes somehow manage to capture first-order aspects of boundary layer cloud fields, there certainly remains room for improvement in many areas. Only too often are boundary layer parameterizations still found to be at the heart of problems in large-scale models, negatively affecting forecast skills of NWP models or causing uncertainty in numerical predictions of future climate. How to break this parameterization "deadlock" remains an open problem. This presentation attempts to give an overview of the various existing methods for the process-level evaluation of boundary-layer physics in large-scale models. This includes i) idealized case studies, ii) longer-term evaluation at permanent meteorological sites (the testbed approach

  16. Splitting turbulence algorithm for mixing parameterization embedded in the ocean climate model. Examples of data assimilation and Prandtl number variations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moshonkin, Sergey; Gusev, Anatoly; Zalesny, Vladimir; Diansky, Nikolay

    2017-04-01

    Series of experiments were performed with a three-dimensional, free surface, sigma coordinate eddy-permitting ocean circulation model for Atlantic (from 30°S) - Arctic and Bering sea domain (0.25 degrees resolution, Institute of Numerical Mathematics Ocean Model or INMOM) using vertical grid refinement in the zone of fully developed turbulence (40 sigma-levels). The model variables are horizontal velocity components, potential temperature, and salinity as well as free surface height. For parameterization of viscosity and diffusivity, the original splitting turbulence algorithm (STA) is used when total evolutionary equations for the turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) and turbulence dissipation frequency (TDF) split into the stages of transport-diffusion and generation-dissipation. For the generation-dissipation stage the analytical solution was obtained for TKE and TDF as functions of the buoyancy and velocity shift frequencies (BF and VSF). The proposed model with STA is similar to the contemporary differential turbulence models, concerning the physical formulations. At the same time, its algorithm has high enough computational efficiency. For mixing simulation in the zone of turbulence decay, the two kind numerical experiments were carried out, as with assimilation of annual mean climatic buoyancy frequency, as with variation of Prandtl number function dependence upon the BF, VSF, TKE and TDF. The CORE-II data for 1948-2009 were used for experiments. Quality of temperature T and salinity S structure simulation is estimated by the comparison of model monthly profiles T and S averaged for 1980-2009, with T and S monthly data from the World Ocean Atlas 2013. Form of coefficients in equations for TKE and TDF on the generation-dissipation stage makes it possible to assimilate annual mean climatic buoyancy frequency in a varying degree that cardinally improves adequacy of model results to climatic data in all analyzed model domain. The numerical experiments with modified

  17. On The Importance of Connecting Laboratory Measurements of Ice Crystal Growth with Model Parameterizations: Predicting Ice Particle Properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrington, J. Y.

    2017-12-01

    Parameterizing the growth of ice particles in numerical models is at an interesting cross-roads. Most parameterizations developed in the past, including some that I have developed, parse model ice into numerous categories based primarily on the growth mode of the particle. Models routinely possess smaller ice, snow crystals, aggregates, graupel, and hail. The snow and ice categories in some models are further split into subcategories to account for the various shapes of ice. There has been a relatively recent shift towards a new class of microphysical models that predict the properties of ice particles instead of using multiple categories and subcategories. Particle property models predict the physical characteristics of ice, such as aspect ratio, maximum dimension, effective density, rime density, effective area, and so forth. These models are attractive in the sense that particle characteristics evolve naturally in time and space without the need for numerous (and somewhat artificial) transitions among pre-defined classes. However, particle property models often require fundamental parameters that are typically derived from laboratory measurements. For instance, the evolution of particle shape during vapor depositional growth requires knowledge of the growth efficiencies for the various axis of the crystals, which in turn depends on surface parameters that can only be determined in the laboratory. The evolution of particle shapes and density during riming, aggregation, and melting require data on the redistribution of mass across a crystals axis as that crystal collects water drops, ice crystals, or melts. Predicting the evolution of particle properties based on laboratory-determined parameters has a substantial influence on the evolution of some cloud systems. Radiatively-driven cirrus clouds show a broader range of competition between heterogeneous nucleation and homogeneous freezing when ice crystal properties are predicted. Even strongly convective squall

  18. Polynomial Chaos–Based Bayesian Inference of K-Profile Parameterization in a General Circulation Model of the Tropical Pacific

    KAUST Repository

    Sraj, Ihab

    2016-08-26

    The authors present a polynomial chaos (PC)-based Bayesian inference method for quantifying the uncertainties of the K-profile parameterization (KPP) within the MIT general circulation model (MITgcm) of the tropical Pacific. The inference of the uncertain parameters is based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme that utilizes a newly formulated test statistic taking into account the different components representing the structures of turbulent mixing on both daily and seasonal time scales in addition to the data quality, and filters for the effects of parameter perturbations over those as a result of changes in the wind. To avoid the prohibitive computational cost of integrating the MITgcm model at each MCMC iteration, a surrogate model for the test statistic using the PC method is built. Because of the noise in the model predictions, a basis-pursuit-denoising (BPDN) compressed sensing approach is employed to determine the PC coefficients of a representative surrogate model. The PC surrogate is then used to evaluate the test statistic in the MCMC step for sampling the posterior of the uncertain parameters. Results of the posteriors indicate good agreement with the default values for two parameters of the KPP model, namely the critical bulk and gradient Richardson numbers; while the posteriors of the remaining parameters were barely informative. © 2016 American Meteorological Society.

  19. Modeling canopy-induced turbulence in the Earth system: a unified parameterization of turbulent exchange within plant canopies and the roughness sublayer (CLM-ml v0

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. B. Bonan

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Land surface models used in climate models neglect the roughness sublayer and parameterize within-canopy turbulence in an ad hoc manner. We implemented a roughness sublayer turbulence parameterization in a multilayer canopy model (CLM-ml v0 to test if this theory provides a tractable parameterization extending from the ground through the canopy and the roughness sublayer. We compared the canopy model with the Community Land Model (CLM4.5 at seven forest, two grassland, and three cropland AmeriFlux sites over a range of canopy heights, leaf area indexes, and climates. CLM4.5 has pronounced biases during summer months at forest sites in midday latent heat flux, sensible heat flux, gross primary production, nighttime friction velocity, and the radiative temperature diurnal range. The new canopy model reduces these biases by introducing new physics. Advances in modeling stomatal conductance and canopy physiology beyond what is in CLM4.5 substantially improve model performance at the forest sites. The signature of the roughness sublayer is most evident in nighttime friction velocity and the diurnal cycle of radiative temperature, but is also seen in sensible heat flux. Within-canopy temperature profiles are markedly different compared with profiles obtained using Monin–Obukhov similarity theory, and the roughness sublayer produces cooler daytime and warmer nighttime temperatures. The herbaceous sites also show model improvements, but the improvements are related less systematically to the roughness sublayer parameterization in these canopies. The multilayer canopy with the roughness sublayer turbulence improves simulations compared with CLM4.5 while also advancing the theoretical basis for surface flux parameterizations.

  20. Modeling canopy-induced turbulence in the Earth system: a unified parameterization of turbulent exchange within plant canopies and the roughness sublayer (CLM-ml v0)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonan, Gordon B.; Patton, Edward G.; Harman, Ian N.; Oleson, Keith W.; Finnigan, John J.; Lu, Yaqiong; Burakowski, Elizabeth A.

    2018-04-01

    Land surface models used in climate models neglect the roughness sublayer and parameterize within-canopy turbulence in an ad hoc manner. We implemented a roughness sublayer turbulence parameterization in a multilayer canopy model (CLM-ml v0) to test if this theory provides a tractable parameterization extending from the ground through the canopy and the roughness sublayer. We compared the canopy model with the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) at seven forest, two grassland, and three cropland AmeriFlux sites over a range of canopy heights, leaf area indexes, and climates. CLM4.5 has pronounced biases during summer months at forest sites in midday latent heat flux, sensible heat flux, gross primary production, nighttime friction velocity, and the radiative temperature diurnal range. The new canopy model reduces these biases by introducing new physics. Advances in modeling stomatal conductance and canopy physiology beyond what is in CLM4.5 substantially improve model performance at the forest sites. The signature of the roughness sublayer is most evident in nighttime friction velocity and the diurnal cycle of radiative temperature, but is also seen in sensible heat flux. Within-canopy temperature profiles are markedly different compared with profiles obtained using Monin-Obukhov similarity theory, and the roughness sublayer produces cooler daytime and warmer nighttime temperatures. The herbaceous sites also show model improvements, but the improvements are related less systematically to the roughness sublayer parameterization in these canopies. The multilayer canopy with the roughness sublayer turbulence improves simulations compared with CLM4.5 while also advancing the theoretical basis for surface flux parameterizations.

  1. Alternative Parameterization of the 3-PG Model for Loblolly Pine: A Regional Validation and Climate Change Assessment on Stand Productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, J.; Gonzalez-Benecke, C. A.; Teskey, R. O.; Martin, T.; Jokela, E. J.

    2015-12-01

    Loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) is one of the fastest growing pine species. It has been planted on more than 10 million ha in the southeastern U.S., and also been introduced into many countries. Using data from the literature and long-term productivity studies, we re-parameterized the 3-PG model for loblolly pine stands. We developed new functions for estimating NPP allocation dynamics, canopy cover and needlefall dynamics, effects of frost on production, density-independent and density-dependent tree mortality, biomass pools at variable starting ages, and the fertility rating. New functions to estimate merchantable volume partitioning were also included, allowing for economic analyses. The fertility rating was determined as a function of site index (mean height of dominant trees at age=25 years). We used the largest and most geographically extensive validation dataset for this species ever used (91 pots in 12 states in U.S. and 10 plots in Uruguay). Comparison of modeled to measured data showed robust agreement across the natural range in the U.S., as well as in Uruguay, where the species is grown as an exotic. Using the new set of functions and parameters with downscaled projections from twenty different climate models, the model was applied to assess the impact of future climate change scenarios on stand productivity in the southeastern U.S.

  2. Parameterizing road construction in route-based road weather models: can ground-penetrating radar provide any answers?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hammond, D S; Chapman, L; Thornes, J E

    2011-01-01

    A ground-penetrating radar (GPR) survey of a 32 km mixed urban and rural study route is undertaken to assess the usefulness of GPR as a tool for parameterizing road construction in a route-based road weather forecast model. It is shown that GPR can easily identify even the smallest of bridges along the route, which previous thermal mapping surveys have identified as thermal singularities with implications for winter road maintenance. Using individual GPR traces measured at each forecast point along the route, an inflexion point detection algorithm attempts to identify the depth of the uppermost subsurface layers at each forecast point for use in a road weather model instead of existing ordinal road-type classifications. This approach has the potential to allow high resolution modelling of road construction and bridge decks on a scale previously not possible within a road weather model, but initial results reveal that significant future research will be required to unlock the full potential that this technology can bring to the road weather industry. (technical design note)

  3. Global parameterization and validation of a two-leaf light use efficiency model for predicting gross primary production across FLUXNET sites: TL-LUE Parameterization and Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Yanlian [Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing China; Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing China; Wu, Xiaocui [International Institute for Earth System Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing China; Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing China; Ju, Weimin [International Institute for Earth System Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing China; Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographic Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing China; Chen, Jing M. [International Institute for Earth System Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing China; Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing China; Wang, Shaoqiang [Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing China; Wang, Huimin [Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing China; Yuan, Wenping [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Future Earth Research Institute, Beijing Normal University, Beijing China; Andrew Black, T. [Faculty of Land and Food Systems, University of British Columbia, Vancouver British Columbia Canada; Jassal, Rachhpal [Faculty of Land and Food Systems, University of British Columbia, Vancouver British Columbia Canada; Ibrom, Andreas [Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark (DTU), Kgs. Lyngby Denmark; Han, Shijie [Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang China; Yan, Junhua [South China Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou China; Margolis, Hank [Centre for Forest Studies, Faculty of Forestry, Geography and Geomatics, Laval University, Quebec City Quebec Canada; Roupsard, Olivier [CIRAD-Persyst, UMR Ecologie Fonctionnelle and Biogéochimie des Sols et Agroécosystèmes, SupAgro-CIRAD-INRA-IRD, Montpellier France; CATIE (Tropical Agricultural Centre for Research and Higher Education), Turrialba Costa Rica; Li, Yingnian [Northwest Institute of Plateau Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xining China; Zhao, Fenghua [Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing China; Kiely, Gerard [Environmental Research Institute, Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, University College Cork, Cork Ireland; Starr, Gregory [Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa Alabama USA; Pavelka, Marian [Laboratory of Plants Ecological Physiology, Institute of Systems Biology and Ecology AS CR, Prague Czech Republic; Montagnani, Leonardo [Forest Services, Autonomous Province of Bolzano, Bolzano Italy; Faculty of Sciences and Technology, Free University of Bolzano, Bolzano Italy; Wohlfahrt, Georg [Institute for Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck Austria; European Academy of Bolzano, Bolzano Italy; D' Odorico, Petra [Grassland Sciences Group, Institute of Agricultural Sciences, ETH Zurich Switzerland; Cook, David [Atmospheric and Climate Research Program, Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne Illinois USA; Arain, M. Altaf [McMaster Centre for Climate Change and School of Geography and Earth Sciences, McMaster University, Hamilton Ontario Canada; Bonal, Damien [INRA Nancy, UMR EEF, Champenoux France; Beringer, Jason [School of Earth and Environment, The University of Western Australia, Crawley Australia; Blanken, Peter D. [Department of Geography, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Loubet, Benjamin [UMR ECOSYS, INRA, AgroParisTech, Université Paris-Saclay, Thiverval-Grignon France; Leclerc, Monique Y. [Department of Crop and Soil Sciences, College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of Georgia, Athens Georgia USA; Matteucci, Giorgio [Viea San Camillo Ed LellisViterbo, University of Tuscia, Viterbo Italy; Nagy, Zoltan [MTA-SZIE Plant Ecology Research Group, Szent Istvan University, Godollo Hungary; Olejnik, Janusz [Meteorology Department, Poznan University of Life Sciences, Poznan Poland; Department of Matter and Energy Fluxes, Global Change Research Center, Brno Czech Republic; Paw U, Kyaw Tha [Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis California USA; Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge USA; Varlagin, Andrej [A.N. Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow Russia

    2016-04-06

    Light use efficiency (LUE) models are widely used to simulate gross primary production (GPP). However, the treatment of the plant canopy as a big leaf by these models can introduce large uncertainties in simulated GPP. Recently, a two-leaf light use efficiency (TL-LUE) model was developed to simulate GPP separately for sunlit and shaded leaves and has been shown to outperform the big-leaf MOD17 model at 6 FLUX sites in China. In this study we investigated the performance of the TL-LUE model for a wider range of biomes. For this we optimized the parameters and tested the TL-LUE model using data from 98 FLUXNET sites which are distributed across the globe. The results showed that the TL-LUE model performed in general better than the MOD17 model in simulating 8-day GPP. Optimized maximum light use efficiency of shaded leaves (εmsh) was 2.63 to 4.59 times that of sunlit leaves (εmsu). Generally, the relationships of εmsh and εmsu with εmax were well described by linear equations, indicating the existence of general patterns across biomes. GPP simulated by the TL-LUE model was much less sensitive to biases in the photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) input than the MOD17 model. The results of this study suggest that the proposed TL-LUE model has the potential for simulating regional and global GPP of terrestrial ecosystems and it is more robust with regard to usual biases in input data than existing approaches which neglect the bi-modal within-canopy distribution of PAR.

  4. CHEM2D-OPP: A new linearized gas-phase ozone photochemistry parameterization for high-altitude NWP and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. McCormack

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The new CHEM2D-Ozone Photochemistry Parameterization (CHEM2D-OPP for high-altitude numerical weather prediction (NWP systems and climate models specifies the net ozone photochemical tendency and its sensitivity to changes in ozone mixing ratio, temperature and overhead ozone column based on calculations from the CHEM2D interactive middle atmospheric photochemical transport model. We evaluate CHEM2D-OPP performance using both short-term (6-day and long-term (1-year stratospheric ozone simulations with the prototype high-altitude NOGAPS-ALPHA forecast model. An inter-comparison of NOGAPS-ALPHA 6-day ozone hindcasts for 7 February 2005 with ozone photochemistry parameterizations currently used in operational NWP systems shows that CHEM2D-OPP yields the best overall agreement with both individual Aura Microwave Limb Sounder ozone profile measurements and independent hemispheric (10°–90° N ozone analysis fields. A 1-year free-running NOGAPS-ALPHA simulation using CHEM2D-OPP produces a realistic seasonal cycle in zonal mean ozone throughout the stratosphere. We find that the combination of a model cold temperature bias at high latitudes in winter and a warm bias in the CHEM2D-OPP temperature climatology can degrade the performance of the linearized ozone photochemistry parameterization over seasonal time scales despite the fact that the parameterized temperature dependence is weak in these regions.

  5. Parameterization of aquatic ecosystem functioning and its natural variation: Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of plankton food web dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norros, Veera; Laine, Marko; Lignell, Risto; Thingstad, Frede

    2017-10-01

    Methods for extracting empirically and theoretically sound parameter values are urgently needed in aquatic ecosystem modelling to describe key flows and their variation in the system. Here, we compare three Bayesian formulations for mechanistic model parameterization that differ in their assumptions about the variation in parameter values between various datasets: 1) global analysis - no variation, 2) separate analysis - independent variation and 3) hierarchical analysis - variation arising from a shared distribution defined by hyperparameters. We tested these methods, using computer-generated and empirical data, coupled with simplified and reasonably realistic plankton food web models, respectively. While all methods were adequate, the simulated example demonstrated that a well-designed hierarchical analysis can result in the most accurate and precise parameter estimates and predictions, due to its ability to combine information across datasets. However, our results also highlighted sensitivity to hyperparameter prior distributions as an important caveat of hierarchical analysis. In the more complex empirical example, hierarchical analysis was able to combine precise identification of parameter values with reasonably good predictive performance, although the ranking of the methods was less straightforward. We conclude that hierarchical Bayesian analysis is a promising tool for identifying key ecosystem-functioning parameters and their variation from empirical datasets.

  6. Electrochemical-mechanical coupled modeling and parameterization of swelling and ionic transport in lithium-ion batteries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauerteig, Daniel; Hanselmann, Nina; Arzberger, Arno; Reinshagen, Holger; Ivanov, Svetlozar; Bund, Andreas

    2018-02-01

    The intercalation and aging induced volume changes of lithium-ion battery electrodes lead to significant mechanical pressure or volume changes on cell and module level. As the correlation between electrochemical and mechanical performance of lithium ion batteries at nano and macro scale requires a comprehensive and multidisciplinary approach, physical modeling accounting for chemical and mechanical phenomena during operation is very useful for the battery design. Since the introduced fully-coupled physical model requires proper parameterization, this work also focuses on identifying appropriate mathematical representation of compressibility as well as the ionic transport in the porous electrodes and the separator. The ionic transport is characterized by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) using symmetric pouch cells comprising LiNi1/3Mn1/3Co1/3O2 (NMC) cathode, graphite anode and polyethylene separator. The EIS measurements are carried out at various mechanical loads. The observed decrease of the ionic conductivity reveals a significant transport limitation at high pressures. The experimentally obtained data are applied as input to the electrochemical-mechanical model of a prismatic 10 Ah cell. Our computational approach accounts intercalation induced electrode expansion, stress generation caused by mechanical boundaries, compression of the electrodes and the separator, outer expansion of the cell and finally the influence of the ionic transport within the electrolyte.

  7. A mass-flux cumulus parameterization scheme for large-scale models: description and test with observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Tongwen [China Meteorological Administration (CMA), National Climate Center (Beijing Climate Center), Beijing (China)

    2012-02-15

    A simple mass-flux cumulus parameterization scheme suitable for large-scale atmospheric models is presented. The scheme is based on a bulk-cloud approach and has the following properties: (1) Deep convection is launched at the level of maximum moist static energy above the top of the boundary layer. It is triggered if there is positive convective available potential energy (CAPE) and relative humidity of the air at the lifting level of convection cloud is greater than 75%; (2) Convective updrafts for mass, dry static energy, moisture, cloud liquid water and momentum are parameterized by a one-dimensional entrainment/detrainment bulk-cloud model. The lateral entrainment of the environmental air into the unstable ascending parcel before it rises to the lifting condensation level is considered. The entrainment/detrainment amount for the updraft cloud parcel is separately determined according to the increase/decrease of updraft parcel mass with altitude, and the mass change for the adiabatic ascent cloud parcel with altitude is derived from a total energy conservation equation of the whole adiabatic system in which involves the updraft cloud parcel and the environment; (3) The convective downdraft is assumed saturated and originated from the level of minimum environmental saturated equivalent potential temperature within the updraft cloud; (4) The mass flux at the base of convective cloud is determined by a closure scheme suggested by Zhang (J Geophys Res 107(D14)), in which the increase/decrease of CAPE due to changes of the thermodynamic states in the free troposphere resulting from convection approximately balances the decrease/increase resulting from large-scale processes. Evaluation of the proposed convection scheme is performed by using a single column model (SCM) forced by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program's (ARM) summer 1995 and 1997 Intensive Observing Period (IOP) observations, and field observations from the Global Atmospheric Research

  8. Parameterizing sub-surface drainage with geology to improve modeling streamflow responses to climate in data limited environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. L. Tague

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Hydrologic models are one of the core tools used to project how water resources may change under a warming climate. These models are typically applied over a range of scales, from headwater streams to higher order rivers, and for a variety of purposes, such as evaluating changes to aquatic habitat or reservoir operation. Most hydrologic models require streamflow data to calibrate subsurface drainage parameters. In many cases, long-term gage records may not be available for calibration, particularly when assessments are focused on low-order stream reaches. Consequently, hydrologic modeling of climate change impacts is often performed in the absence of sufficient data to fully parameterize these hydrologic models. In this paper, we assess a geologic-based strategy for assigning drainage parameters. We examine the performance of this modeling strategy for the McKenzie River watershed in the US Oregon Cascades, a region where previous work has demonstrated sharp contrasts in hydrology based primarily on geological differences between the High and Western Cascades. Based on calibration and verification using existing streamflow data, we demonstrate that: (1 a set of streams ranging from 1st to 3rd order within the Western Cascade geologic region can share the same drainage parameter set, while (2 streams from the High Cascade geologic region require a different parameter set. Further, we show that a watershed comprised of a mixture of High and Western Cascade geologies can be modeled without additional calibration by transferring parameters from these distinctive High and Western Cascade end-member parameter sets. More generally, we show that by defining a set of end-member parameters that reflect different geologic classes, we can more efficiently apply a hydrologic model over a geologically complex landscape and resolve geo-climatic differences in how different watersheds are likely to respond to simple warming scenarios.

  9. Parameterizing Bayesian network Representations of Social-Behavioral Models by Expert Elicitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walsh, Stephen J.; Dalton, Angela C.; Whitney, Paul D.; White, Amanda M.

    2010-05-23

    Bayesian networks provide a general framework with which to model many natural phenomena. The mathematical nature of Bayesian networks enables a plethora of model validation and calibration techniques: e.g parameter estimation, goodness of fit tests, and diagnostic checking of the model assumptions. However, they are not free of shortcomings. Parameter estimation from relevant extant data is a common approach to calibrating the model parameters. In practice it is not uncommon to find oneself lacking adequate data to reliably estimate all model parameters. In this paper we present the early development of a novel application of conjoint analysis as a method for eliciting and modeling expert opinions and using the results in a methodology for calibrating the parameters of a Bayesian network.

  10. Perspectives on multifield models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Banerjee, S. [Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, CA (United States)

    1997-07-01

    Multifield models for prediction of nuclear reactor thermalhydraulics are reviewed from the viewpoint of their structure and requirements for closure relationships. Their strengths and weaknesses are illustrated with examples, indicating that they are effective in predicting separated and distributed flow regimes, but have problems for flows with large oscillations. Needs for multifield models are also discussed in the context of reactor operations and accident simulations. The highest priorities for future developments appear to relate to closure relationships for three-dimensional multifield models with emphasis on those needed for calculations of phase separation and entrainment/de-entrainment in complex geometries.

  11. Perspectives on multifield models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banerjee, S.

    1997-01-01

    Multifield models for prediction of nuclear reactor thermalhydraulics are reviewed from the viewpoint of their structure and requirements for closure relationships. Their strengths and weaknesses are illustrated with examples, indicating that they are effective in predicting separated and distributed flow regimes, but have problems for flows with large oscillations. Needs for multifield models are also discussed in the context of reactor operations and accident simulations. The highest priorities for future developments appear to relate to closure relationships for three-dimensional multifield models with emphasis on those needed for calculations of phase separation and entrainment/de-entrainment in complex geometries

  12. Automatic Model-Based Generation of Parameterized Test Cases Using Data Abstraction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Calamé, Jens R.; Ioustinova, Natalia; Romijn, J.M.T.; Smith, G.; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis

    2007-01-01

    Developing test suites is a costly and error-prone process. Model-based test generation tools facilitate this process by automatically generating test cases from system models. The applicability of these tools, however, depends on the size of the target systems. Here, we propose an approach to

  13. Technical Note: Approximate Bayesian parameterization of a process-based tropical forest model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartig, F.; Dislich, C.; Wiegand, T.; Huth, A.

    2014-02-01

    Inverse parameter estimation of process-based models is a long-standing problem in many scientific disciplines. A key question for inverse parameter estimation is how to define the metric that quantifies how well model predictions fit to the data. This metric can be expressed by general cost or objective functions, but statistical inversion methods require a particular metric, the probability of observing the data given the model parameters, known as the likelihood. For technical and computational reasons, likelihoods for process-based stochastic models are usually based on general assumptions about variability in the observed data, and not on the stochasticity generated by the model. Only in recent years have new methods become available that allow the generation of likelihoods directly from stochastic simulations. Previous applications of these approximate Bayesian methods have concentrated on relatively simple models. Here, we report on the application of a simulation-based likelihood approximation for FORMIND, a parameter-rich individual-based model of tropical forest dynamics. We show that approximate Bayesian inference, based on a parametric likelihood approximation placed in a conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler, performs well in retrieving known parameter values from virtual inventory data generated by the forest model. We analyze the results of the parameter estimation, examine its sensitivity to the choice and aggregation of model outputs and observed data (summary statistics), and demonstrate the application of this method by fitting the FORMIND model to field data from an Ecuadorian tropical forest. Finally, we discuss how this approach differs from approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), another method commonly used to generate simulation-based likelihood approximations. Our results demonstrate that simulation-based inference, which offers considerable conceptual advantages over more traditional methods for inverse parameter estimation

  14. Technical Note: Approximate Bayesian parameterization of a complex tropical forest model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartig, F.; Dislich, C.; Wiegand, T.; Huth, A.

    2013-08-01

    Inverse parameter estimation of process-based models is a long-standing problem in ecology and evolution. A key problem of inverse parameter estimation is to define a metric that quantifies how well model predictions fit to the data. Such a metric can be expressed by general cost or objective functions, but statistical inversion approaches are based on a particular metric, the probability of observing the data given the model, known as the likelihood. Deriving likelihoods for dynamic models requires making assumptions about the probability for observations to deviate from mean model predictions. For technical reasons, these assumptions are usually derived without explicit consideration of the processes in the simulation. Only in recent years have new methods become available that allow generating likelihoods directly from stochastic simulations. Previous applications of these approximate Bayesian methods have concentrated on relatively simple models. Here, we report on the application of a simulation-based likelihood approximation for FORMIND, a parameter-rich individual-based model of tropical forest dynamics. We show that approximate Bayesian inference, based on a parametric likelihood approximation placed in a conventional MCMC, performs well in retrieving known parameter values from virtual field data generated by the forest model. We analyze the results of the parameter estimation, examine the sensitivity towards the choice and aggregation of model outputs and observed data (summary statistics), and show results from using this method to fit the FORMIND model to field data from an Ecuadorian tropical forest. Finally, we discuss differences of this approach to Approximate Bayesian Computing (ABC), another commonly used method to generate simulation-based likelihood approximations. Our results demonstrate that simulation-based inference, which offers considerable conceptual advantages over more traditional methods for inverse parameter estimation, can

  15. Development of a CFD Model Including Tree's Drag Parameterizations: Application to Pedestrian's Wind Comfort in an Urban Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, G.; Kim, J.

    2017-12-01

    This study investigated the tree's effect on wind comfort at pedestrian height in an urban area using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model. We implemented the tree's drag parameterization scheme to the CFD model and validated the simulated results against the wind-tunnel measurement data as well as LES data via several statistical methods. The CFD model underestimated (overestimated) the concentrations on the leeward (windward) walls inside the street canyon in the presence of trees, because the CFD model can't resolve the latticed cage and can't reflect the concentration increase and decrease caused by the latticed cage in the simulations. However, the scalar pollutants' dispersion simulated by the CFD model was quite similar to that in the wind-tunnel measurement in pattern and magnitude, on the whole. The CFD model overall satisfied the statistical validation indices (root normalized mean square error, geometric mean variance, correlation coefficient, and FAC2) but failed to satisfy the fractional bias and geometric mean bias due to the underestimation on the leeward wall and overestimation on the windward wall, showing that its performance was comparable to the LES's performance. We applied the CFD model to evaluation of the trees' effect on the pedestrian's wind-comfort in an urban area. To investigate sensory levels for human activities, the wind-comfort criteria based on Beaufort wind-force scales (BWSs) were used. In the tree-free scenario, BWS 4 and 5 (unpleasant condition for sitting long and sitting short, respectively) appeared in the narrow spaces between buildings, in the upwind side of buildings, and the unobstructed areas. In the tree scenario, BWSs decreased by 1 3 grade inside the campus of Pukyong National University located in the target area, which indicated that trees planted in the campus effectively improved pedestrian's wind comfort.

  16. Atmospheric water vapor transport: Estimation of continental precipitation recycling and parameterization of a simple climate model. M.S. Thesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brubaker, Kaye L.; Entekhabi, Dara; Eagleson, Peter S.

    1991-01-01

    The advective transport of atmospheric water vapor and its role in global hydrology and the water balance of continental regions are discussed and explored. The data set consists of ten years of global wind and humidity observations interpolated onto a regular grid by objective analysis. Atmospheric water vapor fluxes across the boundaries of selected continental regions are displayed graphically. The water vapor flux data are used to investigate the sources of continental precipitation. The total amount of water that precipitates on large continental regions is supplied by two mechanisms: (1) advection from surrounding areas external to the region; and (2) evaporation and transpiration from the land surface recycling of precipitation over the continental area. The degree to which regional precipitation is supplied by recycled moisture is a potentially significant climate feedback mechanism and land surface-atmosphere interaction, which may contribute to the persistence and intensification of droughts. A simplified model of the atmospheric moisture over continents and simultaneous estimates of regional precipitation are employed to estimate, for several large continental regions, the fraction of precipitation that is locally derived. In a separate, but related, study estimates of ocean to land water vapor transport are used to parameterize an existing simple climate model, containing both land and ocean surfaces, that is intended to mimic the dynamics of continental climates.

  17. Lessons Learned From the Development and Parameterization of a Computer Simulation Model to Evaluate Task Modification for Health Care Providers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasaie, Parastu; David Kelton, W; Ancona, Rachel M; Ward, Michael J; Froehle, Craig M; Lyons, Michael S

    2018-02-01

    Computer simulation is a highly advantageous method for understanding and improving health care operations with a wide variety of possible applications. Most computer simulation studies in emergency medicine have sought to improve allocation of resources to meet demand or to assess the impact of hospital and other system policies on emergency department (ED) throughput. These models have enabled essential discoveries that can be used to improve the general structure and functioning of EDs. Theoretically, computer simulation could also be used to examine the impact of adding or modifying specific provider tasks. Doing so involves a number of unique considerations, particularly in the complex environment of acute care settings. In this paper, we describe conceptual advances and lessons learned during the design, parameterization, and validation of a computer simulation model constructed to evaluate changes in ED provider activity. We illustrate these concepts using examples from a study focused on the operational effects of HIV screening implementation in the ED. Presentation of our experience should emphasize the potential for application of computer simulation to study changes in health care provider activity and facilitate the progress of future investigators in this field. © 2017 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

  18. Parameterized examination in econometrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malinova, Anna; Kyurkchiev, Vesselin; Spasov, Georgi

    2018-01-01

    The paper presents a parameterization of basic types of exam questions in Econometrics. This algorithm is used to automate and facilitate the process of examination, assessment and self-preparation of a large number of students. The proposed parameterization of testing questions reduces the time required to author tests and course assignments. It enables tutors to generate a large number of different but equivalent dynamic questions (with dynamic answers) on a certain topic, which are automatically assessed. The presented methods are implemented in DisPeL (Distributed Platform for e-Learning) and provide questions in the areas of filtering and smoothing of time-series data, forecasting, building and analysis of single-equation econometric models. Questions also cover elasticity, average and marginal characteristics, product and cost functions, measurement of monopoly power, supply, demand and equilibrium price, consumer and product surplus, etc. Several approaches are used to enable the required numerical computations in DisPeL - integration of third-party mathematical libraries, developing our own procedures from scratch, and wrapping our legacy math codes in order to modernize and reuse them.

  19. Intercomparison and validation of snow albedo parameterization schemes in climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pedersen, Christina A.; Winther, Jan-Gunnar [Norwegian Polar Institute, Tromsoe (Norway)

    2005-09-01

    Snow albedo is known to be crucial for heat exchange at high latitudes and high altitudes, and is also an important parameter in General Circulation Models (GCMs) because of its strong positive feedback properties. In this study, seven GCM snow albedo schemes and a multiple linear regression model were intercompared and validated against 59 years of in situ data from Svalbard, the French Alps and six stations in the former Soviet Union. For each site, the significant meteorological parameters for modeling the snow albedo were identified by constructing the 95% confidence intervals. The significant parameters were found to be: temperature, snow depth, positive degree day and a dummy of snow depth, and the multiple linear regression model was constructed to include these. Overall, the intercomparison showed that the modeled snow albedo varied more than the observed albedo for all models, and that the albedo was often underestimated. In addition, for several of the models, the snow albedo decreased at a faster rate or by a greater magnitude during the winter snow metamorphosis than the observed albedo. Both the temperature dependent schemes and the prognostic schemes showed shortcomings. (orig.)

  20. Parameterization of Macropore Flow Using Dye-Tracer Infiltration Patterns in the SWAP Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schaik, N.L.M.B.; Hendriks, R.F.A.; Dam, van J.C.

    2010-01-01

    Preferential flow is known to influence infiltration, soil moisture content distribution, groundwater response, and runoff generation. Various model concepts are used to simulate preferential flow. Preferential flow parameters are often determined by indirect optimization using outflow or discharge

  1. Setup of a Parameterized FE Model for the Die Roll Prediction in Fine Blanking using Artificial Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanke, J.; Trauth, D.; Feuerhack, A.; Klocke, F.

    2017-09-01

    Die roll is a morphological feature of fine blanked sheared edges. The die roll reduces the functional part of the sheared edge. To compensate for the die roll thicker sheet metal strips and secondary machining must be used. However, in order to avoid this, the influence of various fine blanking process parameters on the die roll has been experimentally and numerically studied, but there is still a lack of knowledge on the effects of some factors and especially factor interactions on the die roll. Recent changes in the field of artificial intelligence motivate the hybrid use of the finite element method and artificial neural networks to account for these non-considered parameters. Therefore, a set of simulations using a validated finite element model of fine blanking is firstly used to train an artificial neural network. Then the artificial neural network is trained with thousands of experimental trials. Thus, the objective of this contribution is to develop an artificial neural network that reliably predicts the die roll. Therefore, in this contribution, the setup of a fully parameterized 2D FE model is presented that will be used for batch training of an artificial neural network. The FE model enables an automatic variation of the edge radii of blank punch and die plate, the counter and blank holder force, the sheet metal thickness and part diameter, V-ring height and position, cutting velocity as well as material parameters covered by the Hensel-Spittel model for 16MnCr5 (1.7131, AISI/SAE 5115). The FE model is validated using experimental trails. The results of this contribution is a FE model suitable to perform 9.623 simulations and to pass the simulated die roll width and height automatically to an artificial neural network.

  2. Parameterized source term in the diffusion approximation for enhanced near-field modeling of collimated light

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Mengyu; Wang, Shuang; Chen, Xueying; Gao, Feng; Zhao, Huijuan

    2016-03-01

    Most analytical methods for describing light propagation in turbid medium exhibit low effectiveness in the near-field of a collimated source. Motivated by the Charge Simulation Method in electromagnetic theory as well as the established discrete source based modeling, we have reported on an improved explicit model, referred to as "Virtual Source" (VS) diffuse approximation (DA), to inherit the mathematical simplicity of the DA while considerably extend its validity in modeling the near-field photon migration in low-albedo medium. In this model, the collimated light in the standard DA is analogously approximated as multiple isotropic point sources (VS) distributed along the incident direction. For performance enhancement, a fitting procedure between the calculated and realistic reflectances is adopted in the nearfield to optimize the VS parameters (intensities and locations). To be practically applicable, an explicit 2VS-DA model is established based on close-form derivations of the VS parameters for the typical ranges of the optical parameters. The proposed VS-DA model is validated by comparing with the Monte Carlo simulations, and further introduced in the image reconstruction of the Laminar Optical Tomography system.

  3. Toward Rigorous Parameterization of Underconstrained Neural Network Models Through Interactive Visualization and Steering of Connectivity Generation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Nowke

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Simulation models in many scientific fields can have non-unique solutions or unique solutions which can be difficult to find. Moreover, in evolving systems, unique final state solutions can be reached by multiple different trajectories. Neuroscience is no exception. Often, neural network models are subject to parameter fitting to obtain desirable output comparable to experimental data. Parameter fitting without sufficient constraints and a systematic exploration of the possible solution space can lead to conclusions valid only around local minima or around non-minima. To address this issue, we have developed an interactive tool for visualizing and steering parameters in neural network simulation models. In this work, we focus particularly on connectivity generation, since finding suitable connectivity configurations for neural network models constitutes a complex parameter search scenario. The development of the tool has been guided by several use cases—the tool allows researchers to steer the parameters of the connectivity generation during the simulation, thus quickly growing networks composed of multiple populations with a targeted mean activity. The flexibility of the software allows scientists to explore other connectivity and neuron variables apart from the ones presented as use cases. With this tool, we enable an interactive exploration of parameter spaces and a better understanding of neural network models and grapple with the crucial problem of non-unique network solutions and trajectories. In addition, we observe a reduction in turn around times for the assessment of these models, due to interactive visualization while the simulation is computed.

  4. Parameterization Of Solar Radiation Using Neural Network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiya, J. D.; Alfa, B.

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents a neural network technique for parameterization of global solar radiation. The available data from twenty-one stations is used for training the neural network and the data from other ten stations is used to validate the neural model. The neural network utilizes latitude, longitude, altitude, sunshine duration and period number to parameterize solar radiation values. The testing data was not used in the training to demonstrate the performance of the neural network in unknown stations to parameterize solar radiation. The results indicate a good agreement between the parameterized solar radiation values and actual measured values

  5. Proposing a Compartmental Model for Leprosy and Parameterizing Using Regional Incidence in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Rebecca Lee

    2016-08-01

    Hansen's disease (HD), or leprosy, is still considered a public health risk in much of Brazil. Understanding the dynamics of the infection at a regional level can aid in identification of targets to improve control. A compartmental continuous-time model for leprosy dynamics was designed based on understanding of the biology of the infection. The transmission coefficients for the model and the rate of detection were fit for each region using Approximate Bayesian Computation applied to paucibacillary and multibacillary incidence data over the period of 2000 to 2010, and model fit was validated on incidence data from 2011 to 2012. Regional variation was noted in detection rate, with cases in the Midwest estimated to be infectious for 10 years prior to detection compared to 5 years for most other regions. Posterior predictions for the model estimated that elimination of leprosy as a public health risk would require, on average, 44-45 years in the three regions with the highest prevalence. The model is easily adaptable to other settings, and can be studied to determine the efficacy of improved case finding on leprosy control.

  6. Electrostatics of cysteine residues in proteins: Parameterization and validation of a simple model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salsbury, Freddie R.; Poole, Leslie B.; Fetrow, Jacquelyn S.

    2013-01-01

    One of the most popular and simple models for the calculation of pKas from a protein structure is the semi-macroscopic electrostatic model MEAD. This model requires empirical parameters for each residue to calculate pKas. Analysis of current, widely used empirical parameters for cysteine residues showed that they did not reproduce expected cysteine pKas; thus, we set out to identify parameters consistent with the CHARMM27 force field that capture both the behavior of typical cysteines in proteins and the behavior of cysteines which have perturbed pKas. The new parameters were validated in three ways: (1) calculation across a large set of typical cysteines in proteins (where the calculations are expected to reproduce expected ensemble behavior); (2) calculation across a set of perturbed cysteines in proteins (where the calculations are expected to reproduce the shifted ensemble behavior); and (3) comparison to experimentally determined pKa values (where the calculation should reproduce the pKa within experimental error). Both the general behavior of cysteines in proteins and the perturbed pKa in some proteins can be predicted reasonably well using the newly determined empirical parameters within the MEAD model for protein electrostatics. This study provides the first general analysis of the electrostatics of cysteines in proteins, with specific attention paid to capturing both the behavior of typical cysteines in a protein and the behavior of cysteines whose pKa should be shifted, and validation of force field parameters for cysteine residues. PMID:22777874

  7. On parameterization of heat conduction in coupled soil water and heat flow modelling

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Votrubová, J.; Dohnal, M.; Vogel, T.; Tesař, Miroslav

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 7, č. 4 (2012), s. 125-137 ISSN 1801-5395 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/08/1174 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20600510 Keywords : advective heat flux * dual-permeability model * soil heat transport * soil thermal conductivity * surface energy balance Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology Impact factor: 0.333, year: 2012

  8. Electrostatics of cysteine residues in proteins: parameterization and validation of a simple model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salsbury, Freddie R; Poole, Leslie B; Fetrow, Jacquelyn S

    2012-11-01

    One of the most popular and simple models for the calculation of pK(a) s from a protein structure is the semi-macroscopic electrostatic model MEAD. This model requires empirical parameters for each residue to calculate pK(a) s. Analysis of current, widely used empirical parameters for cysteine residues showed that they did not reproduce expected cysteine pK(a) s; thus, we set out to identify parameters consistent with the CHARMM27 force field that capture both the behavior of typical cysteines in proteins and the behavior of cysteines which have perturbed pK(a) s. The new parameters were validated in three ways: (1) calculation across a large set of typical cysteines in proteins (where the calculations are expected to reproduce expected ensemble behavior); (2) calculation across a set of perturbed cysteines in proteins (where the calculations are expected to reproduce the shifted ensemble behavior); and (3) comparison to experimentally determined pK(a) values (where the calculation should reproduce the pK(a) within experimental error). Both the general behavior of cysteines in proteins and the perturbed pK(a) in some proteins can be predicted reasonably well using the newly determined empirical parameters within the MEAD model for protein electrostatics. This study provides the first general analysis of the electrostatics of cysteines in proteins, with specific attention paid to capturing both the behavior of typical cysteines in a protein and the behavior of cysteines whose pK(a) should be shifted, and validation of force field parameters for cysteine residues. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. Methods used to parameterize the spatially-explicit components of a state-and-transition simulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel R. Sleeter

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Spatially-explicit state-and-transition simulation models of land use and land cover (LULC increase our ability to assess regional landscape characteristics and associated carbon dynamics across multiple scenarios. By characterizing appropriate spatial attributes such as forest age and land-use distribution, a state-and-transition model can more effectively simulate the pattern and spread of LULC changes. This manuscript describes the methods and input parameters of the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS, a customized state-and-transition simulation model utilized to assess the relative impacts of LULC on carbon stocks for the conterminous U.S. The methods and input parameters are spatially explicit and describe initial conditions (strata, state classes and forest age, spatial multipliers, and carbon stock density. Initial conditions were derived from harmonization of multi-temporal data characterizing changes in land use as well as land cover. Harmonization combines numerous national-level datasets through a cell-based data fusion process to generate maps of primary LULC categories. Forest age was parameterized using data from the North American Carbon Program and spatially-explicit maps showing the locations of past disturbances (i.e. wildfire and harvest. Spatial multipliers were developed to spatially constrain the location of future LULC transitions. Based on distance-decay theory, maps were generated to guide the placement of changes related to forest harvest, agricultural intensification/extensification, and urbanization. We analyze the spatially-explicit input parameters with a sensitivity analysis, by showing how LUCAS responds to variations in the model input. This manuscript uses Mediterranean California as a regional subset to highlight local to regional aspects of land change, which demonstrates the utility of LUCAS at many scales and applications.

  10. Methods used to parameterize the spatially-explicit components of a state-and-transition simulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeter, Rachel; Acevedo, William; Soulard, Christopher E.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.

    2015-01-01

    Spatially-explicit state-and-transition simulation models of land use and land cover (LULC) increase our ability to assess regional landscape characteristics and associated carbon dynamics across multiple scenarios. By characterizing appropriate spatial attributes such as forest age and land-use distribution, a state-and-transition model can more effectively simulate the pattern and spread of LULC changes. This manuscript describes the methods and input parameters of the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS), a customized state-and-transition simulation model utilized to assess the relative impacts of LULC on carbon stocks for the conterminous U.S. The methods and input parameters are spatially explicit and describe initial conditions (strata, state classes and forest age), spatial multipliers, and carbon stock density. Initial conditions were derived from harmonization of multi-temporal data characterizing changes in land use as well as land cover. Harmonization combines numerous national-level datasets through a cell-based data fusion process to generate maps of primary LULC categories. Forest age was parameterized using data from the North American Carbon Program and spatially-explicit maps showing the locations of past disturbances (i.e. wildfire and harvest). Spatial multipliers were developed to spatially constrain the location of future LULC transitions. Based on distance-decay theory, maps were generated to guide the placement of changes related to forest harvest, agricultural intensification/extensification, and urbanization. We analyze the spatially-explicit input parameters with a sensitivity analysis, by showing how LUCAS responds to variations in the model input. This manuscript uses Mediterranean California as a regional subset to highlight local to regional aspects of land change, which demonstrates the utility of LUCAS at many scales and applications.

  11. Parameterization of a complex landscape for a sediment routing model of the Le Sueur River, southern Minnesota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belmont, P.; Viparelli, E.; Parker, G.; Lauer, W.; Jennings, C.; Gran, K.; Wilcock, P.; Melesse, A.

    2008-12-01

    Modeling sediment fluxes and pathways in complex landscapes is limited by our inability to accurately measure and integrate heterogeneous, spatially distributed sources into a single coherent, predictive geomorphic transport law. In this study, we partition the complex landscape of the Le Sueur River watershed into five distributed primary source types, bluffs (including strath terrace caps), ravines, streambanks, tributaries, and flat,agriculture-dominated uplands. The sediment contribution of each source is quantified independently and parameterized for use in a sand and mud routing model. Rigorous modeling of the evolution of this landscape and sediment flux from each source type requires consideration of substrate characteristics, heterogeneity, and spatial connectivity. The subsurface architecture of the Le Sueur drainage basin is defined by a layer cake sequence of fine-grained tills, interbedded with fluvioglacial sands. Nearly instantaneous baselevel fall of 65 m occurred at 11.5 ka, as a result of the catastrophic draining of glacial Lake Agassiz through the Minnesota River, to which the Le Sueur is a tributary. The major knickpoint that was generated from that event has propagated 40 km into the Le Sueur network, initiating an incised river valley with tall, retreating bluffs and actively incising ravines. Loading estimates constrained by river gaging records that bound the knick zone indicate that bluffs connected to the river are retreating at an average rate of less than 2 cm per year and ravines are incising at an average rate of less than 0.8 mm per year, consistent with the Holocene average incision rate on the main stem of the river of less than 0.6 mm per year. Ongoing work with cosmogenic nuclide sediment tracers, ground-based LiDAR, historic aerial photos, and field mapping will be combined to represent the diversity of erosional environments and processes in a single coherent routing model.

  12. Investigating Marine Boundary Layer Parameterizations by Combining Observations with Models via State Estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Delle Monahce, Luca [University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder, CO (United States); Clifton, Andrew [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hacker, Joshua [University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder, CO (United States); Kosovic, Branko [University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder, CO (United States); Lee, Jared [University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder, CO (United States); Vanderberghe, Francois [University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder, CO (United States); Wu, Yonghui [University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder, CO (United States); Hawkins, Sam [Vattenfall, Solna Municipality (Sweden); Nissen, Jesper [Vattenfall, Solna Municipality (Sweden)

    2015-06-30

    In this project we have improved numerical weather prediction analyses and forecasts of low level winds in the marine boundary layer. This has been accomplished with the following tools; The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Weather and Research Forecasting model, WRF, both in his single column (SCM) and three-dimensional (3D) versions; The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Wave Watch III (WWIII); SE algorithms from the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART, Anderson et al. 2009); and Observations of key quantities of the lower MBL, including temperature and winds at multiple levels above the sea surface. The experiments with the WRF SCM / DART system have lead to large improvements with respect to a standard WRF configuration, which is currently commonly used by the wind energy industry. The single column model appears to be a tool particularly suitable for off-shore wind energy applications given its accuracy, the ability to quantify uncertainty, and the minimal computational resource requirements. In situations where the impact of an upwind wind park may be of interest in a downwind location, a 3D approach may be more suitable. We have demonstrated that with the WRF 3D / DART system the accuracy of wind predictions (and other meteorological parameters) can be improved over a 3D computational domain, and not only at specific locations. All the scripting systems developed in this project (i.e., to run WRF SCM / DART, WRF 3D / DART, and the coupling between WRF and WWIII) and the several modifications and upgrades made to the WRF SCM model will be shared with the broader community.

  13. Parameterizations of Chromospheric Condensations in dG and dMe Model Flare Atmospheres

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kowalski, Adam F.; Allred, Joel C.

    2018-01-01

    The origin of the near-ultraviolet and optical continuum radiation in flares is critical for understanding particle acceleration and impulsive heating in stellar atmospheres. Radiative-hydrodynamic (RHD) simulations in 1D have shown that high energy deposition rates from electron beams produce two flaring layers at T ∼ 104 K that develop in the chromosphere: a cooling condensation (downflowing compression) and heated non-moving (stationary) flare layers just below the condensation. These atmospheres reproduce several observed phenomena in flare spectra, such as the red-wing asymmetry of the emission lines in solar flares and a small Balmer jump ratio in M dwarf flares. The high beam flux simulations are computationally expensive in 1D, and the (human) timescales for completing NLTE models with adaptive grids in 3D will likely be unwieldy for some time to come. We have developed a prescription for predicting the approximate evolved states, continuum optical depth, and emergent continuum flux spectra of RHD model flare atmospheres. These approximate prescriptions are based on an important atmospheric parameter: the column mass ({m}{ref}) at which hydrogen becomes nearly completely ionized at the depths that are approximately in steady state with the electron beam heating. Using this new modeling approach, we find that high energy flux density (>F11) electron beams are needed to reproduce the brightest observed continuum intensity in IRIS data of the 2014 March 29 X1 solar flare, and that variation in {m}{ref} from 0.001 to 0.02 g cm‑2 reproduces most of the observed range of the optical continuum flux ratios at the peak of M dwarf flares.

  14. Modeling and Parameterization of Fuel Economy in Heavy Duty Vehicles (HDVs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunjung Oh

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The present paper suggests fuel consumption modeling for HDVs based on the code from the Japanese Ministry of the Environment. Two interpolation models (inversed distance weighted (IDW and Hermite and three types of fuel efficiency maps (coarse, medium, and dense were adopted to determine the most appropriate combination for further studies. Finally, sensitivity analysis studies were conducted to determine which parameters greatly impact the fuel efficiency prediction results for HDVs. While vitiating each parameter at specific percentages (±1%, ±3%, ±5%, ±10%, the change rate of the fuel efficiency results was analyzed, and the main factors affecting fuel efficiency were summarized. As a result, the Japanese transformation algorithm program showed good agreement with slightly increased prediction accuracy for the fuel efficiency test results when applying the Hermite interpolation method compared to IDW interpolation. The prediction accuracy of fuel efficiency remained unchanged regardless of the chosen fuel efficiency map data density. According to the sensitivity analysis study, three parameters (fuel consumption map data, driving force, and gross vehicle weight have the greatest impact on fuel efficiency (±5% to ±10% changes.

  15. Third nearest neighbor parameterized tight binding model for graphene nano-ribbons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Van-Truong Tran

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The existing tight binding models can very well reproduce the ab initio band structure of a 2D graphene sheet. For graphene nano-ribbons (GNRs, the current sets of tight binding parameters can successfully describe the semi-conducting behavior of all armchair GNRs. However, they are still failing in reproducing accurately the slope of the bands that is directly associated with the group velocity and the effective mass of electrons. In this work, both density functional theory and tight binding calculations were performed and a new set of tight binding parameters up to the third nearest neighbors including overlap terms is introduced. The results obtained with this model offer excellent agreement with the predictions of the density functional theory in most cases of ribbon structures, even in the high-energy region. Moreover, this set can induce electron-hole asymmetry as manifested in results from density functional theory. Relevant outcomes are also achieved for armchair ribbons of various widths as well as for zigzag structures, thus opening a route for multi-scale atomistic simulation of large systems that cannot be considered using density functional theory.

  16. A Parameterized Inversion Model for Soil Moisture and Biomass from Polarimetric Backscattering Coefficients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Truong-Loi, My-Linh; Saatchi, Sassan; Jaruwatanadilok, Sermsak

    2012-01-01

    A semi-empirical algorithm for the retrieval of soil moisture, root mean square (RMS) height and biomass from polarimetric SAR data is explained and analyzed in this paper. The algorithm is a simplification of the distorted Born model. It takes into account the physical scattering phenomenon and has three major components: volume, double-bounce and surface. This simplified model uses the three backscattering coefficients ( sigma HH, sigma HV and sigma vv) at low-frequency (P-band). The inversion process uses the Levenberg-Marquardt non-linear least-squares method to estimate the structural parameters. The estimation process is entirely explained in this paper, from initialization of the unknowns to retrievals. A sensitivity analysis is also done where the initial values in the inversion process are varying randomly. The results show that the inversion process is not really sensitive to initial values and a major part of the retrievals has a root-mean-square error lower than 5% for soil moisture, 24 Mg/ha for biomass and 0.49 cm for roughness, considering a soil moisture of 40%, roughness equal to 3cm and biomass varying from 0 to 500 Mg/ha with a mean of 161 Mg/ha

  17. A new parameterization for surface ocean light attenuation in Earth System Models: assessing the impact of light absorption by colored detrital material

    OpenAIRE

    G. E. Kim; M.-A. Pradal; A. Gnanadesikan

    2015-01-01

    Light limitation can affect the distribution of biota and nutrients in the ocean. Light absorption by colored detrital material (CDM) was included in a fully coupled Earth System Model using a new parameterization for shortwave attenuation. Two model runs were conducted, with and without light attenuation by CDM. In a global average sense, greater light limitation associated with CDM increased surface chlorophyll, biomass and nutrients together. These changes can be attribut...

  18. Accounting for Unresolved Spatial Variability in Large Scale Models: Development and Evaluation of a Statistical Cloud Parameterization with Prognostic Higher Order Moments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robert Pincus

    2011-05-17

    This project focused on the variability of clouds that is present across a wide range of scales ranging from the synoptic to the millimeter. In particular, there is substantial variability in cloud properties at scales smaller than the grid spacing of models used to make climate projections (GCMs) and weather forecasts. These models represent clouds and other small-scale processes with parameterizations that describe how those processes respond to and feed back on the largescale state of the atmosphere.

  19. Parameterization of dust emissions in the global atmospheric chemistry-climate model EMAC: impact of nudging and soil properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Astitha, M.; Lelieveld, J.; Abdel Kader, M.; Pozzer, A.; de Meij, A.

    2012-11-01

    Airborne desert dust influences radiative transfer, atmospheric chemistry and dynamics, as well as nutrient transport and deposition. It directly and indirectly affects climate on regional and global scales. Two versions of a parameterization scheme to compute desert dust emissions are incorporated into the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy2.41 Atmospheric Chemistry). One uses a globally uniform soil particle size distribution, whereas the other explicitly accounts for different soil textures worldwide. We have tested these two versions and investigated the sensitivity to input parameters, using remote sensing data from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and dust concentrations and deposition measurements from the AeroCom dust benchmark database (and others). The two versions are shown to produce similar atmospheric dust loads in the N-African region, while they deviate in the Asian, Middle Eastern and S-American regions. The dust outflow from Africa over the Atlantic Ocean is accurately simulated by both schemes, in magnitude, location and seasonality. Approximately 70% of the modelled annual deposition data and 70-75% of the modelled monthly aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the Atlantic Ocean stations lay in the range 0.5 to 2 times the observations for all simulations. The two versions have similar performance, even though the total annual source differs by ~50%, which underscores the importance of transport and deposition processes (being the same for both versions). Even though the explicit soil particle size distribution is considered more realistic, the simpler scheme appears to perform better in several locations. This paper discusses the differences between the two versions of the dust emission scheme, focusing on their limitations and strengths in describing the global dust cycle and suggests possible future improvements.

  20. Parameterization of dust emissions in the global atmospheric chemistry-climate model EMAC: impact of nudging and soil properties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Astitha

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Airborne desert dust influences radiative transfer, atmospheric chemistry and dynamics, as well as nutrient transport and deposition. It directly and indirectly affects climate on regional and global scales. Two versions of a parameterization scheme to compute desert dust emissions are incorporated into the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy2.41 Atmospheric Chemistry. One uses a globally uniform soil particle size distribution, whereas the other explicitly accounts for different soil textures worldwide. We have tested these two versions and investigated the sensitivity to input parameters, using remote sensing data from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET and dust concentrations and deposition measurements from the AeroCom dust benchmark database (and others. The two versions are shown to produce similar atmospheric dust loads in the N-African region, while they deviate in the Asian, Middle Eastern and S-American regions. The dust outflow from Africa over the Atlantic Ocean is accurately simulated by both schemes, in magnitude, location and seasonality. Approximately 70% of the modelled annual deposition data and 70–75% of the modelled monthly aerosol optical depth (AOD in the Atlantic Ocean stations lay in the range 0.5 to 2 times the observations for all simulations. The two versions have similar performance, even though the total annual source differs by ~50%, which underscores the importance of transport and deposition processes (being the same for both versions. Even though the explicit soil particle size distribution is considered more realistic, the simpler scheme appears to perform better in several locations. This paper discusses the differences between the two versions of the dust emission scheme, focusing on their limitations and strengths in describing the global dust cycle and suggests possible future improvements.

  1. Parameterization of Nitrogen Limitation for a Dynamic Ecohydrological Model: a Case Study from the Luquillo Critical Zone Observatory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastola, S.; Bras, R. L.

    2017-12-01

    Feedbacks between vegetation and the soil nutrient cycle are important in ecosystems where nitrogen limits plant growth, and consequently influences the carbon balance in the plant-soil system. However, many biosphere models do not include such feedbacks, because interactions between carbon and the nitrogen cycle can be complex, and remain poorly understood. In this study we coupled a nitrogen cycle model with an eco-hydrological model by using the concept of carbon cost economics. This concept accounts for different "costs" to the plant of acquiring nitrogen via different pathways. This study builds on tRIBS-VEGGIE, a spatially explicit hydrological model coupled with a model of photosynthesis, stomatal resistance, and energy balance, by combining it with a model of nitrogen recycling. Driven by climate and spatially explicit data of soils, vegetation and topography, the model (referred to as tRIBS-VEGGIE-CN) simulates the dynamics of carbon and nitrogen in the soil-plant system; the dynamics of vegetation; and different components of the hydrological cycle. The tRIBS-VEGGIE-CN is applied in a humid tropical watershed at the Luquillo Critical Zone Observatory (LCZO). The region is characterized by high availability and cycling of nitrogen, high soil respiration rates, and large carbon stocks.We drive the model under contemporary CO2 and hydro-climatic forcing and compare results to a simulation under doubling CO2 and a range of future climate scenarios. The results with parameterization of nitrogen limitation based on carbon cost economics show that the carbon cost of the acquisition of nitrogen is 14% of the net primary productivity (NPP) and the N uptake cost for different pathways vary over a large range depending on leaf nitrogen content, turnover rates of carbon in soil and nitrogen cycling processes. Moreover, the N fertilization simulation experiment shows that the application of N fertilizer does not significantly change the simulated NPP. Furthermore, an

  2. Least square regression based integrated multi-parameteric demand modeling for short term load forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halepoto, I.A.; Uqaili, M.A.

    2014-01-01

    Nowadays, due to power crisis, electricity demand forecasting is deemed an important area for socioeconomic development and proper anticipation of the load forecasting is considered essential step towards efficient power system operation, scheduling and planning. In this paper, we present STLF (Short Term Load Forecasting) using multiple regression techniques (i.e. linear, multiple linear, quadratic and exponential) by considering hour by hour load model based on specific targeted day approach with temperature variant parameter. The proposed work forecasts the future load demand correlation with linear and non-linear parameters (i.e. considering temperature in our case) through different regression approaches. The overall load forecasting error is 2.98% which is very much acceptable. From proposed regression techniques, Quadratic Regression technique performs better compared to than other techniques because it can optimally fit broad range of functions and data sets. The work proposed in this paper, will pave a path to effectively forecast the specific day load with multiple variance factors in a way that optimal accuracy can be maintained. (author)

  3. Structural and parameteric uncertainty quantification in cloud microphysics parameterization schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Lier-Walqui, M.; Morrison, H.; Kumjian, M. R.; Prat, O. P.; Martinkus, C.

    2017-12-01

    Atmospheric model parameterization schemes employ approximations to represent the effects of unresolved processes. These approximations are a source of error in forecasts, caused in part by considerable uncertainty about the optimal value of parameters within each scheme -- parameteric uncertainty. Furthermore, there is uncertainty regarding the best choice of the overarching structure of the parameterization scheme -- structrual uncertainty. Parameter estimation can constrain the first, but may struggle with the second because structural choices are typically discrete. We address this problem in the context of cloud microphysics parameterization schemes by creating a flexible framework wherein structural and parametric uncertainties can be simultaneously constrained. Our scheme makes no assuptions about drop size distribution shape or the functional form of parametrized process rate terms. Instead, these uncertainties are constrained by observations using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler within a Bayesian inference framework. Our scheme, the Bayesian Observationally-constrained Statistical-physical Scheme (BOSS), has flexibility to predict various sets of prognostic drop size distribution moments as well as varying complexity of process rate formulations. We compare idealized probabilistic forecasts from versions of BOSS with varying levels of structural complexity. This work has applications in ensemble forecasts with model physics uncertainty, data assimilation, and cloud microphysics process studies.

  4. Sensitivity analysis of a parameterization of the stomatal component of the DO{sub 3}SE model for Quercus ilex to estimate ozone fluxes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alonso, Rocio [Ecotoxicology of Air Pollution, CIEMAT, Avenida Complutense 22, 28040 Madrid (Spain)], E-mail: rocio.alonso@ciemat.es; Elvira, Susana [Ecotoxicology of Air Pollution, CIEMAT, Avenida Complutense 22, 28040 Madrid (Spain)], E-mail: susana.elvira@ciemat.es; Sanz, Maria J. [Fundacion CEAM, Charles Darwin 14, 46980 Paterna, Valencia (Spain)], E-mail: mjose@ceam.es; Gerosa, Giacomo [Department of Mathematics and Physics, Universita Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, via Musei 41, 25121 Brescia (Italy)], E-mail: giacomo.gerosa@unicatt.it; Emberson, Lisa D. [Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York, York YO 10 5DD (United Kingdom)], E-mail: lde1@york.ac.uk; Bermejo, Victoria [Ecotoxicology of Air Pollution, CIEMAT, Avenida Complutense 22, 28040 Madrid (Spain)], E-mail: victoria.bermejo@ciemat.es; Gimeno, Benjamin S. [Ecotoxicology of Air Pollution, CIEMAT, Avenida Complutense 22, 28040 Madrid (Spain)], E-mail: benjamin.gimeno@ciemat.es

    2008-10-15

    A sensitivity analysis of a proposed parameterization of the stomatal conductance (g{sub s}) module of the European ozone deposition model (DO{sub 3}SE) for Quercus ilex was performed. The performance of the model was tested against measured g{sub s} in the field at three sites in Spain. The best fit of the model was found for those sites, or during those periods, facing no or mild stress conditions, but a worse performance was found under severe drought or temperature stress, mostly occurring at continental sites. The best performance was obtained when both f{sub phen} and f{sub SWP} were included. A local parameterization accounting for the lower temperatures recorded in winter and the higher water shortage at the continental sites resulted in a better performance of the model. The overall results indicate that two different parameterizations of the model are needed, one for marine-influenced sites and another one for continental sites. - No redundancy between phenological and water-related modifying functions was found when estimating stomatal behavior of Holm oak.

  5. Sensitivity analysis of a parameterization of the stomatal component of the DO3SE model for Quercus ilex to estimate ozone fluxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alonso, Rocio; Elvira, Susana; Sanz, Maria J.; Gerosa, Giacomo; Emberson, Lisa D.; Bermejo, Victoria; Gimeno, Benjamin S.

    2008-01-01

    A sensitivity analysis of a proposed parameterization of the stomatal conductance (g s ) module of the European ozone deposition model (DO 3 SE) for Quercus ilex was performed. The performance of the model was tested against measured g s in the field at three sites in Spain. The best fit of the model was found for those sites, or during those periods, facing no or mild stress conditions, but a worse performance was found under severe drought or temperature stress, mostly occurring at continental sites. The best performance was obtained when both f phen and f SWP were included. A local parameterization accounting for the lower temperatures recorded in winter and the higher water shortage at the continental sites resulted in a better performance of the model. The overall results indicate that two different parameterizations of the model are needed, one for marine-influenced sites and another one for continental sites. - No redundancy between phenological and water-related modifying functions was found when estimating stomatal behavior of Holm oak

  6. Sensitivity of aerosol indirect forcing and autoconversion to cloud droplet parameterization: an assessment with the NASA Global Modeling Initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sotiropoulou, R. P.; Meshkhidze, N.; Nenes, A.

    2006-12-01

    The aerosol indirect forcing is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in assessments of anthropogenic climate change [IPCC, 2001]. Much of this uncertainty arises from the approach used for linking cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) to precursor aerosol. Global Climate Models (GCM) use a wide range of cloud droplet activation mechanisms ranging from empirical [Boucher and Lohmann, 1995] to detailed physically- based formulations [e.g., Abdul-Razzak and Ghan, 2000; Fountoukis and Nenes, 2005]. The objective of this study is to assess the uncertainties in indirect forcing and autoconversion of cloud water to rain caused by the application of different cloud droplet parameterization mechanisms; this is an important step towards constraining the aerosol indirect effects (AIE). Here we estimate the uncertainty in indirect forcing and autoconversion rate using the NASA Global Model Initiative (GMI). The GMI allows easy interchange of meteorological fields, chemical mechanisms and the aerosol microphysical packages. Therefore, it is an ideal tool for assessing the effect of different parameters on aerosol indirect forcing. The aerosol module includes primary emissions, chemical production of sulfate in clear air and in-cloud aqueous phase, gravitational sedimentation, dry deposition, wet scavenging in and below clouds, and hygroscopic growth. Model inputs include SO2 (fossil fuel and natural), black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), mineral dust and sea salt. The meteorological data used in this work were taken from the NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) and two different GCMs: the NASA GEOS4 finite volume GCM (FVGCM) and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies version II' (GISS II') GCM. Simulations were carried out for "present day" and "preindustrial" emissions using different meteorological fields (i.e. DAO, FVGCM, GISS II'); cloud droplet number concentration is computed from the correlations of Boucher and Lohmann [1995], Abdul-Razzak and Ghan [2000

  7. Modeling the regional impact of ship emissions on NOx and ozone levels over the Eastern Atlantic and Western Europe using ship plume parameterization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Pisoft

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available In general, regional and global chemistry transport models apply instantaneous mixing of emissions into the model's finest resolved scale. In case of a concentrated source, this could result in erroneous calculation of the evolution of both primary and secondary chemical species. Several studies discussed this issue in connection with emissions from ships and aircraft. In this study, we present an approach to deal with the non-linear effects during dispersion of NOx emissions from ships. It represents an adaptation of the original approach developed for aircraft NOx emissions, which uses an exhaust tracer to trace the amount of the emitted species in the plume and applies an effective reaction rate for the ozone production/destruction during the plume's dilution into the background air. In accordance with previous studies examining the impact of international shipping on the composition of the troposphere, we found that the contribution of ship induced surface NOx to the total reaches 90% over remote ocean and makes 10–30% near coastal regions. Due to ship emissions, surface ozone increases by up to 4–6 ppbv making 10% contribution to the surface ozone budget. When applying the ship plume parameterization, we show that the large scale NOx decreases and the ship NOx contribution is reduced by up to 20–25%. A similar decrease was found in the case of O3. The plume parameterization suppressed the ship induced ozone production by 15–30% over large areas of the studied region. To evaluate the presented parameterization, nitrogen monoxide measurements over the English Channel were compared with modeled values and it was found that after activating the parameterization the model accuracy increases.

  8. Sensitivity of the weather research and forecasting model to parameterization schemes for regional climate of Nile River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tariku, Tebikachew Betru; Gan, Thian Yew

    2018-06-01

    Regional climate models (RCMs) have been used to simulate rainfall at relatively high spatial and temporal resolutions useful for sustainable water resources planning, design and management. In this study, the sensitivity of the RCM, weather research and forecasting (WRF), in modeling the regional climate of the Nile River Basin (NRB) was investigated using 31 combinations of different physical parameterization schemes which include cumulus (Cu), microphysics (MP), planetary boundary layer (PBL), land-surface model (LSM) and radiation (Ra) schemes. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis data as initial and lateral boundary conditions, WRF was configured to model the climate of NRB at a resolution of 36 km with 30 vertical levels. The 1999-2001 simulations using WRF were compared with satellite data combined with ground observation and the NCEP reanalysis data for 2 m surface air temperature (T2), rainfall, short- and longwave downward radiation at the surface (SWRAD, LWRAD). Overall, WRF simulated more accurate T2 and LWRAD (with correlation coefficients >0.8 and low root-mean-square error) than SWRAD and rainfall for the NRB. Further, the simulation of rainfall is more sensitive to PBL, Cu and MP schemes than other schemes of WRF. For example, WRF simulated less biased rainfall with Kain-Fritsch combined with MYJ than with YSU as the PBL scheme. The simulation of T2 is more sensitive to LSM and Ra than to Cu, PBL and MP schemes selected, SWRAD is more sensitive to MP and Ra than to Cu, LSM and PBL schemes, and LWRAD is more sensitive to LSM, Ra and PBL than Cu, and MP schemes. In summary, the following combination of schemes simulated the most representative regional climate of NRB: WSM3 microphysics, KF cumulus, MYJ PBL, RRTM longwave radiation and Dudhia shortwave radiation schemes, and Noah LSM. The above configuration of WRF coupled to the Noah LSM has also been shown to simulate representative regional

  9. Sensitivity of the weather research and forecasting model to parameterization schemes for regional climate of Nile River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tariku, Tebikachew Betru; Gan, Thian Yew

    2017-08-01

    Regional climate models (RCMs) have been used to simulate rainfall at relatively high spatial and temporal resolutions useful for sustainable water resources planning, design and management. In this study, the sensitivity of the RCM, weather research and forecasting (WRF), in modeling the regional climate of the Nile River Basin (NRB) was investigated using 31 combinations of different physical parameterization schemes which include cumulus (Cu), microphysics (MP), planetary boundary layer (PBL), land-surface model (LSM) and radiation (Ra) schemes. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis data as initial and lateral boundary conditions, WRF was configured to model the climate of NRB at a resolution of 36 km with 30 vertical levels. The 1999-2001 simulations using WRF were compared with satellite data combined with ground observation and the NCEP reanalysis data for 2 m surface air temperature (T2), rainfall, short- and longwave downward radiation at the surface (SWRAD, LWRAD). Overall, WRF simulated more accurate T2 and LWRAD (with correlation coefficients >0.8 and low root-mean-square error) than SWRAD and rainfall for the NRB. Further, the simulation of rainfall is more sensitive to PBL, Cu and MP schemes than other schemes of WRF. For example, WRF simulated less biased rainfall with Kain-Fritsch combined with MYJ than with YSU as the PBL scheme. The simulation of T2 is more sensitive to LSM and Ra than to Cu, PBL and MP schemes selected, SWRAD is more sensitive to MP and Ra than to Cu, LSM and PBL schemes, and LWRAD is more sensitive to LSM, Ra and PBL than Cu, and MP schemes. In summary, the following combination of schemes simulated the most representative regional climate of NRB: WSM3 microphysics, KF cumulus, MYJ PBL, RRTM longwave radiation and Dudhia shortwave radiation schemes, and Noah LSM. The above configuration of WRF coupled to the Noah LSM has also been shown to simulate representative regional

  10. Improving the representation of river-groundwater interactions in land surface modeling at the regional scale: Observational evidence and parameterization applied in the Community Land Model

    KAUST Repository

    Zampieri, Matteo

    2012-02-01

    Groundwater is an important component of the hydrological cycle, included in many land surface models to provide a lower boundary condition for soil moisture, which in turn plays a key role in the land-vegetation-atmosphere interactions and the ecosystem dynamics. In regional-scale climate applications land surface models (LSMs) are commonly coupled to atmospheric models to close the surface energy, mass and carbon balance. LSMs in these applications are used to resolve the momentum, heat, water and carbon vertical fluxes, accounting for the effect of vegetation, soil type and other surface parameters, while lack of adequate resolution prevents using them to resolve horizontal sub-grid processes. Specifically, LSMs resolve the large-scale runoff production associated with infiltration excess and sub-grid groundwater convergence, but they neglect the effect from loosing streams to groundwater. Through the analysis of observed data of soil moisture obtained from the Oklahoma Mesoscale Network stations and land surface temperature derived from MODIS we provide evidence that the regional scale soil moisture and surface temperature patterns are affected by the rivers. This is demonstrated on the basis of simulations from a land surface model (i.e., Community Land Model - CLM, version 3.5). We show that the model cannot reproduce the features of the observed soil moisture and temperature spatial patterns that are related to the underlying mechanism of reinfiltration of river water to groundwater. Therefore, we implement a simple parameterization of this process in CLM showing the ability to reproduce the soil moisture and surface temperature spatial variabilities that relate to the river distribution at regional scale. The CLM with this new parameterization is used to evaluate impacts of the improved representation of river-groundwater interactions on the simulated water cycle parameters and the surface energy budget at the regional scale. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.

  11. A parameterization of the heterogeneous hydrolysis of N2O5 for mass-based aerosol models: improvement of particulate nitrate prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ying; Wolke, Ralf; Ran, Liang; Birmili, Wolfram; Spindler, Gerald; Schröder, Wolfram; Su, Hang; Cheng, Yafang; Tegen, Ina; Wiedensohler, Alfred

    2018-01-01

    The heterogeneous hydrolysis of N2O5 on the surface of deliquescent aerosol leads to HNO3 formation and acts as a major sink of NOx in the atmosphere during night-time. The reaction constant of this heterogeneous hydrolysis is determined by temperature (T), relative humidity (RH), aerosol particle composition, and the surface area concentration (S). However, these parameters were not comprehensively considered in the parameterization of the heterogeneous hydrolysis of N2O5 in previous mass-based 3-D aerosol modelling studies. In this investigation, we propose a sophisticated parameterization (NewN2O5) of N2O5 heterogeneous hydrolysis with respect to T, RH, aerosol particle compositions, and S based on laboratory experiments. We evaluated closure between NewN2O5 and a state-of-the-art parameterization based on a sectional aerosol treatment. The comparison showed a good linear relationship (R = 0.91) between these two parameterizations. NewN2O5 was incorporated into a 3-D fully online coupled model, COSMO-MUSCAT, with the mass-based aerosol treatment. As a case study, we used the data from the HOPE Melpitz campaign (10-25 September 2013) to validate model performance. Here, we investigated the improvement of nitrate prediction over western and central Europe. The modelled particulate nitrate mass concentrations ([NO3-]) were validated by filter measurements over Germany (Neuglobsow, Schmücke, Zingst, and Melpitz). The modelled [NO3-] was significantly overestimated for this period by a factor of 5-19, with the corrected NH3 emissions (reduced by 50 %) and the original parameterization of N2O5 heterogeneous hydrolysis. The NewN2O5 significantly reduces the overestimation of [NO3-] by ˜ 35 %. Particularly, the overestimation factor was reduced to approximately 1.4 in our case study (12, 17-18 and 25 September 2013) when [NO3-] was dominated by local chemical formations. In our case, the suppression of organic coating was negligible over western and central Europe

  12. Parameterized isoprene and monoterpene emissions from the boreal forest floor: Implementation into a 1D chemistry-transport model and investigation of the influence on atmospheric chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogensen, Ditte; Aaltonen, Hermanni; Aalto, Juho; Bäck, Jaana; Kieloaho, Antti-Jussi; Gierens, Rosa; Smolander, Sampo; Kulmala, Markku; Boy, Michael

    2015-04-01

    Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are emitted from the biosphere and can work as precursor gases for aerosol particles that can affect the climate (e.g. Makkonen et al., ACP, 2012). VOC emissions from needles and leaves have gained the most attention, however other parts of the ecosystem also have the ability to emit a vast amount of VOCs. This, often neglected, source can be important e.g. at periods where leaves are absent. Both sources and drivers related to forest floor emission of VOCs are currently limited. It is thought that the sources are mainly due to degradation of organic matter (Isidorov and Jdanova, Chemosphere, 2002), living roots (Asensio et al., Soil Biol. Biochem., 2008) and ground vegetation. The drivers are biotic (e.g. microbes) and abiotic (e.g. temperature and moisture). However, the relative importance of the sources and the drivers individually are currently poorly understood. Further, the relative importance of these factors is highly dependent on the tree species occupying the area of interest. The emission of isoprene and monoterpenes where measured from the boreal forest floor at the SMEAR II station in Southern Finland (Hari and Kulmala, Boreal Env. Res., 2005) during the snow-free period in 2010-2012. We used a dynamic method with 3 automated chambers analyzed by Proton Transfer Reaction - Mass Spectrometer (Aaltonen et al., Plant Soil, 2013). Using this data, we have developed empirical parameterizations for the emission of isoprene and monoterpenes from the forest floor. These parameterizations depends on abiotic factors, however, since the parameterizations are based on field measurements, biotic features are captured. Further, we have used the 1D chemistry-transport model SOSAA (Boy et al., ACP, 2011) to test the seasonal relative importance of inclusion of these parameterizations of the forest floor compared to the canopy crown emissions, on the atmospheric reactivity throughout the canopy.

  13. Collaborative Project. 3D Radiative Transfer Parameterization Over Mountains/Snow for High-Resolution Climate Models. Fast physics and Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liou, Kuo-Nan [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

    2016-02-09

    Under the support of the aforementioned DOE Grant, we have made two fundamental contributions to atmospheric and climate sciences: (1) Develop an efficient 3-D radiative transfer parameterization for application to intense and intricate inhomogeneous mountain/snow regions. (2) Innovate a stochastic parameterization for light absorption by internally mixed black carbon and dust particles in snow grains for understanding and physical insight into snow albedo reduction in climate models. With reference to item (1), we divided solar fluxes reaching mountain surfaces into five components: direct and diffuse fluxes, direct- and diffuse-reflected fluxes, and coupled mountain-mountain flux. “Exact” 3D Monte Carlo photon tracing computations can then be performed for these solar flux components to compare with those calculated from the conventional plane-parallel (PP) radiative transfer program readily available in climate models. Subsequently, Parameterizations of the deviations of 3D from PP results for five flux components are carried out by means of the multiple linear regression analysis associated with topographic information, including elevation, solar incident angle, sky view factor, and terrain configuration factor. We derived five regression equations with high statistical correlations for flux deviations and successfully incorporated this efficient parameterization into WRF model, which was used as the testbed in connection with the Fu-Liou-Gu PP radiation scheme that has been included in the WRF physics package. Incorporating this 3D parameterization program, we conducted simulations of WRF and CCSM4 to understand and evaluate the mountain/snow effect on snow albedo reduction during seasonal transition and the interannual variability for snowmelt, cloud cover, and precipitation over the Western United States presented in the final report. With reference to item (2), we developed in our previous research a geometric-optics surface-wave approach (GOS) for the

  14. Model description and evaluation of the mark-recapture survival model used to parameterize the 2012 status and threats analysis for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langtimm, Catherine A.; Kendall, William L.; Beck, Cathy A.; Kochman, Howard I.; Teague, Amy L.; Meigs-Friend, Gaia; Peñaloza, Claudia L.

    2016-11-30

    This report provides supporting details and evidence for the rationale, validity and efficacy of a new mark-recapture model, the Barker Robust Design, to estimate regional manatee survival rates used to parameterize several components of the 2012 version of the Manatee Core Biological Model (CBM) and Threats Analysis (TA).  The CBM and TA provide scientific analyses on population viability of the Florida manatee subspecies (Trichechus manatus latirostris) for U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s 5-year reviews of the status of the species as listed under the Endangered Species Act.  The model evaluation is presented in a standardized reporting framework, modified from the TRACE (TRAnsparent and Comprehensive model Evaluation) protocol first introduced for environmental threat analyses.  We identify this new protocol as TRACE-MANATEE SURVIVAL and this model evaluation specifically as TRACE-MANATEE SURVIVAL, Barker RD version 1. The longer-term objectives of the manatee standard reporting format are to (1) communicate to resource managers consistent evaluation information over sequential modeling efforts; (2) build understanding and expertise on the structure and function of the models; (3) document changes in model structures and applications in response to evolving management objectives, new biological and ecological knowledge, and new statistical advances; and (4) provide greater transparency for management and research review.

  15. Terrain Classification on Venus from Maximum-Likelihood Inversion of Parameterized Models of Topography, Gravity, and their Relation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eggers, G. L.; Lewis, K. W.; Simons, F. J.; Olhede, S.

    2013-12-01

    Venus does not possess a plate-tectonic system like that observed on Earth, and many surface features--such as tesserae and coronae--lack terrestrial equivalents. To understand Venus' tectonics is to understand its lithosphere, requiring a study of topography and gravity, and how they relate. Past studies of topography dealt with mapping and classification of visually observed features, and studies of gravity dealt with inverting the relation between topography and gravity anomalies to recover surface density and elastic thickness in either the space (correlation) or the spectral (admittance, coherence) domain. In the former case, geological features could be delineated but not classified quantitatively. In the latter case, rectangular or circular data windows were used, lacking geological definition. While the estimates of lithospheric strength on this basis were quantitative, they lacked robust error estimates. Here, we remapped the surface into 77 regions visually and qualitatively defined from a combination of Magellan topography, gravity, and radar images. We parameterize the spectral covariance of the observed topography, treating it as a Gaussian process assumed to be stationary over the mapped regions, using a three-parameter isotropic Matern model, and perform maximum-likelihood based inversions for the parameters. We discuss the parameter distribution across the Venusian surface and across terrain types such as coronoae, dorsae, tesserae, and their relation with mean elevation and latitudinal position. We find that the three-parameter model, while mathematically established and applicable to Venus topography, is overparameterized, and thus reduce the results to a two-parameter description of the peak spectral variance and the range-to-half-peak variance (in function of the wavenumber). With the reduction the clustering of geological region types in two-parameter space becomes promising. Finally, we perform inversions for the JOINT spectral variance of

  16. Parameterized post-Newtonian cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanghai, Viraj A A; Clifton, Timothy

    2017-01-01

    Einstein’s theory of gravity has been extensively tested on solar system scales, and for isolated astrophysical systems, using the perturbative framework known as the parameterized post-Newtonian (PPN) formalism. This framework is designed for use in the weak-field and slow-motion limit of gravity, and can be used to constrain a large class of metric theories of gravity with data collected from the aforementioned systems. Given the potential of future surveys to probe cosmological scales to high precision, it is a topic of much contemporary interest to construct a similar framework to link Einstein’s theory of gravity and its alternatives to observations on cosmological scales. Our approach to this problem is to adapt and extend the existing PPN formalism for use in cosmology. We derive a set of equations that use the same parameters to consistently model both weak fields and cosmology. This allows us to parameterize a large class of modified theories of gravity and dark energy models on cosmological scales, using just four functions of time. These four functions can be directly linked to the background expansion of the universe, first-order cosmological perturbations, and the weak-field limit of the theory. They also reduce to the standard PPN parameters on solar system scales. We illustrate how dark energy models and scalar-tensor and vector-tensor theories of gravity fit into this framework, which we refer to as ‘parameterized post-Newtonian cosmology’ (PPNC). (paper)

  17. Parameterized post-Newtonian cosmology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanghai, Viraj A. A.; Clifton, Timothy

    2017-03-01

    Einstein’s theory of gravity has been extensively tested on solar system scales, and for isolated astrophysical systems, using the perturbative framework known as the parameterized post-Newtonian (PPN) formalism. This framework is designed for use in the weak-field and slow-motion limit of gravity, and can be used to constrain a large class of metric theories of gravity with data collected from the aforementioned systems. Given the potential of future surveys to probe cosmological scales to high precision, it is a topic of much contemporary interest to construct a similar framework to link Einstein’s theory of gravity and its alternatives to observations on cosmological scales. Our approach to this problem is to adapt and extend the existing PPN formalism for use in cosmology. We derive a set of equations that use the same parameters to consistently model both weak fields and cosmology. This allows us to parameterize a large class of modified theories of gravity and dark energy models on cosmological scales, using just four functions of time. These four functions can be directly linked to the background expansion of the universe, first-order cosmological perturbations, and the weak-field limit of the theory. They also reduce to the standard PPN parameters on solar system scales. We illustrate how dark energy models and scalar-tensor and vector-tensor theories of gravity fit into this framework, which we refer to as ‘parameterized post-Newtonian cosmology’ (PPNC).

  18. The sensitivity of Alpine summer convection to surrogate climate change: an intercomparison between convection-parameterizing and convection-resolving models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Keller

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate models project an increase in heavy precipitation events in response to greenhouse gas forcing. Important elements of such events are rain showers and thunderstorms, which are poorly represented in models with parameterized convection. In this study, simulations with 12 km horizontal grid spacing (convection-parameterizing model, CPM and 2 km grid spacing (convection-resolving model, CRM are employed to investigate the change in the diurnal cycle of convection with warmer climate. For this purpose, simulations of 11 days in June 2007 with a pronounced diurnal cycle of convection are compared with surrogate simulations from the same period. The surrogate climate simulations mimic a future climate with increased temperatures but unchanged relative humidity and similar synoptic-scale circulation. Two temperature scenarios are compared: one with homogeneous warming (HW using a vertically uniform warming and the other with vertically dependent warming (VW that enables changes in lapse rate.The two sets of simulations with parameterized and explicit convection exhibit substantial differences, some of which are well known from the literature. These include differences in the timing and amplitude of the diurnal cycle of convection, and the frequency of precipitation with low intensities. The response to climate change is much less studied. We can show that stratification changes have a strong influence on the changes in convection. Precipitation is strongly increasing for HW but decreasing for the VW simulations. For cloud type frequencies, virtually no changes are found for HW, but a substantial reduction in high clouds is found for VW. Further, we can show that the climate change signal strongly depends upon the horizontal resolution. In particular, significant differences between CPM and CRM are found in terms of the radiative feedbacks, with CRM exhibiting a stronger negative feedback in the top-of-the-atmosphere energy budget.

  19. The sensitivity of Alpine summer convection to surrogate climate change: an intercomparison between convection-parameterizing and convection-resolving models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Michael; Kröner, Nico; Fuhrer, Oliver; Lüthi, Daniel; Schmidli, Juerg; Stengel, Martin; Stöckli, Reto; Schär, Christoph

    2018-04-01

    Climate models project an increase in heavy precipitation events in response to greenhouse gas forcing. Important elements of such events are rain showers and thunderstorms, which are poorly represented in models with parameterized convection. In this study, simulations with 12 km horizontal grid spacing (convection-parameterizing model, CPM) and 2 km grid spacing (convection-resolving model, CRM) are employed to investigate the change in the diurnal cycle of convection with warmer climate. For this purpose, simulations of 11 days in June 2007 with a pronounced diurnal cycle of convection are compared with surrogate simulations from the same period. The surrogate climate simulations mimic a future climate with increased temperatures but unchanged relative humidity and similar synoptic-scale circulation. Two temperature scenarios are compared: one with homogeneous warming (HW) using a vertically uniform warming and the other with vertically dependent warming (VW) that enables changes in lapse rate. The two sets of simulations with parameterized and explicit convection exhibit substantial differences, some of which are well known from the literature. These include differences in the timing and amplitude of the diurnal cycle of convection, and the frequency of precipitation with low intensities. The response to climate change is much less studied. We can show that stratification changes have a strong influence on the changes in convection. Precipitation is strongly increasing for HW but decreasing for the VW simulations. For cloud type frequencies, virtually no changes are found for HW, but a substantial reduction in high clouds is found for VW. Further, we can show that the climate change signal strongly depends upon the horizontal resolution. In particular, significant differences between CPM and CRM are found in terms of the radiative feedbacks, with CRM exhibiting a stronger negative feedback in the top-of-the-atmosphere energy budget.

  20. Parameterization of an empirical model for the prediction of n-octanol, alkane and cyclohexane/water as well as brain/blood partition coefficients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zerara, Mohamed; Brickmann, Jürgen; Kretschmer, Robert; Exner, Thomas E

    2009-02-01

    Quantitative information of solvation and transfer free energies is often needed for the understanding of many physicochemical processes, e.g the molecular recognition phenomena, the transport and diffusion processes through biological membranes and the tertiary structure of proteins. Recently, a concept for the localization and quantification of hydrophobicity has been introduced (Jäger et al. J Chem Inf Comput Sci 43:237-247, 2003). This model is based on the assumptions that the overall hydrophobicity can be obtained as a superposition of fragment contributions. To date, all predictive models for the logP have been parameterized for n-octanol/water (logP(oct)) solvent while very few models with poor predictive abilities are available for other solvents. In this work, we propose a parameterization of an empirical model for n-octanol/water, alkane/water (logP(alk)) and cyclohexane/water (logP(cyc)) systems. Comparison of both logP(alk) and logP(cyc) with the logarithms of brain/blood ratios (logBB) for a set of structurally diverse compounds revealed a high correlation showing their superiority over the logP(oct) measure in this context.

  1. Impacts of spectral nudging on the simulated surface air temperature in summer compared with the selection of shortwave radiation and land surface model physics parameterization in a high-resolution regional atmospheric model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jun; Hwang, Seung-On

    2017-11-01

    The impact of a spectral nudging technique for the dynamical downscaling of the summer surface air temperature in a high-resolution regional atmospheric model is assessed. The performance of this technique is measured by comparing 16 analysis-driven simulation sets of physical parameterization combinations of two shortwave radiation and four land surface model schemes of the model, which are known to be crucial for the simulation of the surface air temperature. It is found that the application of spectral nudging to the outermost domain has a greater impact on the regional climate than any combination of shortwave radiation and land surface model physics schemes. The optimal choice of two model physics parameterizations is helpful for obtaining more realistic spatiotemporal distributions of land surface variables such as the surface air temperature, precipitation, and surface fluxes. However, employing spectral nudging adds more value to the results; the improvement is greater than using sophisticated shortwave radiation and land surface model physical parameterizations. This result indicates that spectral nudging applied to the outermost domain provides a more accurate lateral boundary condition to the innermost domain when forced by analysis data by securing the consistency with large-scale forcing over a regional domain. This consequently indirectly helps two physical parameterizations to produce small-scale features closer to the observed values, leading to a better representation of the surface air temperature in a high-resolution downscaled climate.

  2. Modeling urbanized watershed flood response changes with distributed hydrological model: key hydrological processes, parameterization and case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Urbanization is the world development trend for the past century, and the developing countries have been experiencing much rapider urbanization in the past decades. Urbanization brings many benefits to human beings, but also causes negative impacts, such as increasing flood risk. Impact of urbanization on flood response has long been observed, but quantitatively studying this effect still faces great challenges. For example, setting up an appropriate hydrological model representing the changed flood responses and determining accurate model parameters are very difficult in the urbanized or urbanizing watershed. In the Pearl River Delta area, rapidest urbanization has been observed in China for the past decades, and dozens of highly urbanized watersheds have been appeared. In this study, a physically based distributed watershed hydrological model, the Liuxihe model is employed and revised to simulate the hydrological processes of the highly urbanized watershed flood in the Pearl River Delta area. A virtual soil type is then defined in the terrain properties dataset, and its runoff production and routing algorithms are added to the Liuxihe model. Based on a parameter sensitive analysis, the key hydrological processes of a highly urbanized watershed is proposed, that provides insight into the hydrological processes and for parameter optimization. Based on the above analysis, the model is set up in the Songmushan watershed where there is hydrological data observation. A model parameter optimization and updating strategy is proposed based on the remotely sensed LUC types, which optimizes model parameters with PSO algorithm and updates them based on the changed LUC types. The model parameters in Songmushan watershed are regionalized at the Pearl River Delta area watersheds based on the LUC types of the other watersheds. A dozen watersheds in the highly urbanized area of Dongguan City in the Pearl River Delta area were studied for the flood response changes due to

  3. Inheritance versus parameterization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ernst, Erik

    2013-01-01

    This position paper argues that inheritance and parameterization differ in their fundamental structure, even though they may emulate each other in many ways. Based on this, we claim that certain mechanisms, e.g., final classes, are in conflict with the nature of inheritance, and hence causes...

  4. A Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange (PLACE): Documentation and Testing of a Detailed Process Model of the Partly Cloudy Boundary Layer over Heterogeneous Land.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetzel, Peter J.; Boone, Aaron

    1995-07-01

    This paper presents a general description of, and demonstrates the capabilities of, the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange (PLACE). The PLACE model is a detailed process model of the partly cloudy atmospheric boundary layer and underlying heterogeneous land surfaces. In its development, particular attention has been given to three of the model's subprocesses: the prediction of boundary layer cloud amount, the treatment of surface and soil subgrid heterogeneity, and the liquid water budget. The model includes a three-parameter nonprecipitating cumulus model that feeds back to the surface and boundary layer through radiative effects. Surface heterogeneity in the PLACE model is treated both statistically and by resolving explicit subgrid patches. The model maintains a vertical column of liquid water that is divided into seven reservoirs, from the surface interception store down to bedrock.Five single-day demonstration cases are presented, in which the PLACE model was initialized, run, and compared to field observations from four diverse sites. The model is shown to predict cloud amount well in these while predicting the surface fluxes with similar accuracy. A slight tendency to underpredict boundary layer depth is noted in all cases.Sensitivity tests were also run using anemometer-level forcing provided by the Project for Inter-comparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS). The purpose is to demonstrate the relative impact of heterogeneity of surface parameters on the predicted annual mean surface fluxes. Significant sensitivity to subgrid variability of certain parameters is demonstrated, particularly to parameters related to soil moisture. A major result is that the PLACE-computed impact of total (homogeneous) deforestation of a rain forest is comparable in magnitude to the effect of imposing heterogeneity of certain surface variables, and is similarly comparable to the overall variance among the other PILPS participant models. Were

  5. Robustness and sensitivities of central U.S. summer convection in the super-parameterized CAM: Multi-model intercomparison with a new regional EOF index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kooperman, Gabriel J.; Pritchard, Michael S.; Somerville, Richard C. J.

    2013-06-01

    Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) can bring up to 60% of summer rainfall to the central United States but are not simulated by most global climate models. In this study, a new empirical orthogonal function based index is developed to isolate the MCS activity, similar to that developed by Wheeler and Hendon (2004) for the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The index is applied to compactly compare three conventional- and super-parameterized (SP) versions (3.0, 3.5, and 5.0) of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Results show that nocturnal, eastward propagating convection is a robust effect of super-parameterization but is sensitive to its specific implementation. MCS composites based on the index show that in SP-CAM3.5, convective MCS anomalies are unrealistically large scale and concentrated, while surface precipitation is too weak. These aspects of the MCS signal are improved in the latest version (SP-CAM5.0), which uses high-order microphysics.

  6. A parameterization of the heterogeneous hydrolysis of N2O5 for mass-based aerosol models: improvement of particulate nitrate prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Chen

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The heterogeneous hydrolysis of N2O5 on the surface of deliquescent aerosol leads to HNO3 formation and acts as a major sink of NOx in the atmosphere during night-time. The reaction constant of this heterogeneous hydrolysis is determined by temperature (T, relative humidity (RH, aerosol particle composition, and the surface area concentration (S. However, these parameters were not comprehensively considered in the parameterization of the heterogeneous hydrolysis of N2O5 in previous mass-based 3-D aerosol modelling studies. In this investigation, we propose a sophisticated parameterization (NewN2O5 of N2O5 heterogeneous hydrolysis with respect to T, RH, aerosol particle compositions, and S based on laboratory experiments. We evaluated closure between NewN2O5 and a state-of-the-art parameterization based on a sectional aerosol treatment. The comparison showed a good linear relationship (R =  0.91 between these two parameterizations. NewN2O5 was incorporated into a 3-D fully online coupled model, COSMO–MUSCAT, with the mass-based aerosol treatment. As a case study, we used the data from the HOPE Melpitz campaign (10–25 September 2013 to validate model performance. Here, we investigated the improvement of nitrate prediction over western and central Europe. The modelled particulate nitrate mass concentrations ([NO3−] were validated by filter measurements over Germany (Neuglobsow, Schmücke, Zingst, and Melpitz. The modelled [NO3−] was significantly overestimated for this period by a factor of 5–19, with the corrected NH3 emissions (reduced by 50 % and the original parameterization of N2O5 heterogeneous hydrolysis. The NewN2O5 significantly reduces the overestimation of [NO3−] by  ∼  35 %. Particularly, the overestimation factor was reduced to approximately 1.4 in our case study (12, 17–18 and 25 September 2013 when [NO3−] was dominated by local chemical formations. In our case, the suppression of organic coating

  7. An improved lightning flash rate parameterization developed from Colorado DC3 thunderstorm data for use in cloud-resolving chemical transport models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basarab, B. M.; Rutledge, S. A.; Fuchs, B. R.

    2015-09-01

    Accurate prediction of total lightning flash rate in thunderstorms is important to improve estimates of nitrogen oxides (NOx) produced by lightning (LNOx) from the storm scale to the global scale. In this study, flash rate parameterization schemes from the literature are evaluated against observed total flash rates for a sample of 11 Colorado thunderstorms, including nine storms from the Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) experiment in May-June 2012. Observed flash rates were determined using an automated algorithm that clusters very high frequency radiation sources emitted by electrical breakdown in clouds and detected by the northern Colorado lightning mapping array. Existing schemes were found to inadequately predict flash rates and were updated based on observed relationships between flash rate and simple storm parameters, yielding significant improvement. The most successful updated scheme predicts flash rate based on the radar-derived mixed-phase 35 dBZ echo volume. Parameterizations based on metrics for updraft intensity were also updated but were found to be less reliable predictors of flash rate for this sample of storms. The 35 dBZ volume scheme was tested on a data set containing radar reflectivity volume information for thousands of isolated convective cells in different regions of the U.S. This scheme predicted flash rates to within 5.8% of observed flash rates on average. These results encourage the application of this scheme to larger radar data sets and its possible implementation into cloud-resolving models.

  8. A method for sensible heat flux model parameterization based on radiometric surface temperature and environmental factors without involving the parameter KB-1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Qifeng; Wu, Bingfang; Yan, Nana; Zhu, Weiwei; Xing, Qiang

    2016-05-01

    Sensible heat flux is a key component of land-atmosphere interaction. In most parameterizations it is calculated with surface-air temperature differences and total aerodynamic resistance to heat transfer (Rae) that is related to the KB-1 parameter. Suitable values are hard to obtain since KB-1 is related both to canopy characteristics and environmental conditions. In this paper, a parameterize method for sensible heat flux over vegetated surfaces (maize field and grass land in the Heihe river basin of northwest China) was proposed based on the radiometric surface temperature, surface resistance (Rs) and vapor pressures (saturated and actual) at the surface and the atmosphere above the canopy. A biophysics-based surface resistance model was revised to compute surface resistance with several environmental factors. The total aerodynamic resistance to heat transfer is directly calculated by combining the biophysics-based surface resistance and vapor pressures. One merit of this method is that the calculation of KB-1 can be avoided. The method provides a new way to estimate sensible heat flux over vegetated surfaces and its performance compares well to the LAS measured sensible heat and other empirical or semi-empirical KB-1 based estimations.

  9. On the use of wave parameterizations and a storm impact scaling model in National Weather Service Coastal Flood and decision support operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mignone, Anthony; Stockdon, H.; Willis, M.; Cannon, J.W.; Thompson, R.

    2012-01-01

    National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFO) are responsible for issuing coastal flood watches, warnings, advisories, and local statements to alert decision makers and the general public when rising water levels may lead to coastal impacts such as inundation, erosion, and wave battery. Both extratropical and tropical cyclones can generate the prerequisite rise in water level to set the stage for a coastal impact event. Forecasters use a variety of tools including computer model guidance and local studies to help predict the potential severity of coastal flooding. However, a key missing component has been the incorporation of the effects of waves in the prediction of total water level and the associated coastal impacts. Several recent studies have demonstrated the importance of incorporating wave action into the NWS coastal flood program. To follow up on these studies, this paper looks at the potential of applying recently developed empirical parameterizations of wave setup, swash, and runup to the NWS forecast process. Additionally, the wave parameterizations are incorporated into a storm impact scaling model that compares extreme water levels to beach elevation data to determine the mode of coastal change at predetermined “hotspots” of interest. Specifically, the storm impact model compares the approximate storm-induced still water level, which includes contributions from tides, storm surge, and wave setup, to dune crest elevation to determine inundation potential. The model also compares the combined effects of tides, storm surge, and the 2 % exceedance level for vertical wave runup (including both wave setup and swash) to dune toe and crest elevations to determine if erosion and/or ocean overwash may occur. The wave parameterizations and storm impact model are applied to two cases in 2009 that led to significant coastal impacts and unique forecast challenges in North Carolina: the extratropical “Nor'Ida” event during 11-14 November and

  10. Impact of a simple parameterization of convective gravity-wave drag in a stratosphere-troposphere general circulation model and its sensitivity to vertical resolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Bossuet

    Full Text Available Systematic westerly biases in the southern hemisphere wintertime flow and easterly equatorial biases are experienced in the Météo-France climate model. These biases are found to be much reduced when a simple parameterization is introduced to take into account the vertical momentum transfer through the gravity waves excited by deep convection. These waves are quasi-stationary in the frame of reference moving with convection and they propagate vertically to higher levels in the atmosphere, where they may exert a significant deceleration of the mean flow at levels where dissipation occurs. Sixty-day experiments have been performed from a multiyear simulation with the standard 31 levels for a summer and a winter month, and with a T42 horizontal resolution. The impact of this parameterization on the integration of the model is found to be generally positive, with a significant deceleration in the westerly stratospheric jet and with a reduction of the easterly equatorial bias. The sensitivity of the Météo-France climate model to vertical resolution is also investigated by increasing the number of vertical levels, without moving the top of the model. The vertical resolution is increased up to 41 levels, using two kinds of level distribution. For the first, the increase in vertical resolution concerns especially the troposphere (with 22 levels in the troposphere, and the second treats the whole atmosphere in a homogeneous way (with 15 levels in the troposphere; the standard version of 31 levels has 10 levels in the troposphere. A comparison is made between the dynamical aspects of the simulations. The zonal wind and precipitation are presented and compared for each resolution. A positive impact is found with the finer tropospheric resolution on the precipitation in the mid-latitudes and on the westerly stratospheric jet, but the general impact on the model climate is weak, the physical parameterizations used appear to be mostly independent to the

  11. Assessing uncertainty and sensitivity of model parameterizations and parameters in WRF affecting simulated surface fluxes and land-atmosphere coupling over the Amazon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Y.; Wang, C.; Huang, M.; Berg, L. K.; Duan, Q.; Feng, Z.; Shrivastava, M. B.; Shin, H. H.; Hong, S. Y.

    2016-12-01

    This study aims to quantify the relative importance and uncertainties of different physical processes and parameters in affecting simulated surface fluxes and land-atmosphere coupling strength over the Amazon region. We used two-legged coupling metrics, which include both terrestrial (soil moisture to surface fluxes) and atmospheric (surface fluxes to atmospheric state or precipitation) legs, to diagnose the land-atmosphere interaction and coupling strength. Observations made using the Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facility during the GoAmazon field campaign together with satellite and reanalysis data are used to evaluate model performance. To quantify the uncertainty in physical parameterizations, we performed a 120 member ensemble of simulations with the WRF model using a stratified experimental design including 6 cloud microphysics, 3 convection, 6 PBL and surface layer, and 3 land surface schemes. A multiple-way analysis of variance approach is used to quantitatively analyze the inter- and intra-group (scheme) means and variances. To quantify parameter sensitivity, we conducted an additional 256 WRF simulations in which an efficient sampling algorithm is used to explore the multiple-dimensional parameter space. Three uncertainty quantification approaches are applied for sensitivity analysis (SA) of multiple variables of interest to 20 selected parameters in YSU PBL and MM5 surface layer schemes. Results show consistent parameter sensitivity across different SA methods. We found that 5 out of 20 parameters contribute more than 90% total variance, and first-order effects dominate comparing to the interaction effects. Results of this uncertainty quantification study serve as guidance for better understanding the roles of different physical processes in land-atmosphere interactions, quantifying model uncertainties from various sources such as physical processes, parameters and structural errors, and providing insights for

  12. New representation of water activity based on a single solute specific constant to parameterize the hygroscopic growth of aerosols in atmospheric models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Metzger

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Water activity is a key factor in aerosol thermodynamics and hygroscopic growth. We introduce a new representation of water activity (aw, which is empirically related to the solute molality (μs through a single solute specific constant, νi. Our approach is widely applicable, considers the Kelvin effect and covers ideal solutions at high relative humidity (RH, including cloud condensation nuclei (CCN activation. It also encompasses concentrated solutions with high ionic strength at low RH such as the relative humidity of deliquescence (RHD. The constant νi can thus be used to parameterize the aerosol hygroscopic growth over a wide range of particle sizes, from nanometer nucleation mode to micrometer coarse mode particles. In contrast to other aw-representations, our νi factor corrects the solute molality both linearly and in exponent form x · ax. We present four representations of our basic aw-parameterization at different levels of complexity for different aw-ranges, e.g. up to 0.95, 0.98 or 1. νi is constant over the selected aw-range, and in its most comprehensive form, the parameterization describes the entire aw range (0–1. In this work we focus on single solute solutions. νi can be pre-determined with a root-finding method from our water activity representation using an aw−μs data pair, e.g. at solute saturation using RHD and solubility measurements. Our aw and supersaturation (Köhler-theory results compare well with the thermodynamic reference model E-AIM for the key compounds NaCl and (NH42SO4 relevant for CCN modeling and calibration studies. Envisaged applications include regional and global atmospheric chemistry and

  13. The influence of Cloud Longwave Scattering together with a state-of-the-art Ice Longwave Optical Parameterization in Climate Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Y. H.; Kuo, C. P.; Huang, X.; Yang, P.

    2017-12-01

    Clouds play an important role in the Earth's radiation budget, and thus realistic and comprehensive treatments of cloud optical properties and cloud-sky radiative transfer are crucial for simulating weather and climate. However, most GCMs neglect LW scattering effects by clouds and tend to use inconsistent cloud SW and LW optical parameterizations. Recently, co-authors of this study have developed a new LW optical properties parameterization for ice clouds, which is based on ice cloud particle statistics from MODIS measurements and state-of-the-art scattering calculation. A two-stream multiple-scattering scheme has also been implemented into the RRTMG_LW, a widely used longwave radiation scheme by climate modeling centers. This study is to integrate both the new LW cloud-radiation scheme for ice clouds and the modified RRTMG_LW with scattering capability into the NCAR CESM to improve the cloud longwave radiation treatment. A number of single column model (SCM) simulations using the observation from the ARM SGP site on July 18 to August 4 in 1995 are carried out to assess the impact of new LW optical properties of clouds and scattering-enabled radiation scheme on simulated radiation budget and cloud radiative effect (CRE). The SCM simulation allows interaction between cloud and radiation schemes with other parameterizations, but the large-scale forcing is prescribed or nudged. Comparing to the results from the SCM of the standard CESM, the new ice cloud optical properties alone leads to an increase of LW CRE by 26.85 W m-2 in average, as well as an increase of the downward LW flux at surface by 6.48 W m-2. Enabling LW cloud scattering further increases the LW CRE by another 3.57 W m-2 and the downward LW flux at the surface by 0.2 W m-2. The change of LW CRE is mainly due to an increase of cloud top height, which enhances the LW CRE. A long-term simulation of CESM will be carried out to further understand the impact of such changes on simulated climates.

  14. Monte Carlo simulation for uncertainty estimation on structural data in implicit 3-D geological modeling, a guide for disturbance distribution selection and parameterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pakyuz-Charrier, Evren; Lindsay, Mark; Ogarko, Vitaliy; Giraud, Jeremie; Jessell, Mark

    2018-04-01

    Three-dimensional (3-D) geological structural modeling aims to determine geological information in a 3-D space using structural data (foliations and interfaces) and topological rules as inputs. This is necessary in any project in which the properties of the subsurface matters; they express our understanding of geometries in depth. For that reason, 3-D geological models have a wide range of practical applications including but not restricted to civil engineering, the oil and gas industry, the mining industry, and water management. These models, however, are fraught with uncertainties originating from the inherent flaws of the modeling engines (working hypotheses, interpolator's parameterization) and the inherent lack of knowledge in areas where there are no observations combined with input uncertainty (observational, conceptual and technical errors). Because 3-D geological models are often used for impactful decision-making it is critical that all 3-D geological models provide accurate estimates of uncertainty. This paper's focus is set on the effect of structural input data measurement uncertainty propagation in implicit 3-D geological modeling. This aim is achieved using Monte Carlo simulation for uncertainty estimation (MCUE), a stochastic method which samples from predefined disturbance probability distributions that represent the uncertainty of the original input data set. MCUE is used to produce hundreds to thousands of altered unique data sets. The altered data sets are used as inputs to produce a range of plausible 3-D models. The plausible models are then combined into a single probabilistic model as a means to propagate uncertainty from the input data to the final model. In this paper, several improved methods for MCUE are proposed. The methods pertain to distribution selection for input uncertainty, sample analysis and statistical consistency of the sampled distribution. Pole vector sampling is proposed as a more rigorous alternative than dip vector

  15. Monte Carlo simulation for uncertainty estimation on structural data in implicit 3-D geological modeling, a guide for disturbance distribution selection and parameterization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Pakyuz-Charrier

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Three-dimensional (3-D geological structural modeling aims to determine geological information in a 3-D space using structural data (foliations and interfaces and topological rules as inputs. This is necessary in any project in which the properties of the subsurface matters; they express our understanding of geometries in depth. For that reason, 3-D geological models have a wide range of practical applications including but not restricted to civil engineering, the oil and gas industry, the mining industry, and water management. These models, however, are fraught with uncertainties originating from the inherent flaws of the modeling engines (working hypotheses, interpolator's parameterization and the inherent lack of knowledge in areas where there are no observations combined with input uncertainty (observational, conceptual and technical errors. Because 3-D geological models are often used for impactful decision-making it is critical that all 3-D geological models provide accurate estimates of uncertainty. This paper's focus is set on the effect of structural input data measurement uncertainty propagation in implicit 3-D geological modeling. This aim is achieved using Monte Carlo simulation for uncertainty estimation (MCUE, a stochastic method which samples from predefined disturbance probability distributions that represent the uncertainty of the original input data set. MCUE is used to produce hundreds to thousands of altered unique data sets. The altered data sets are used as inputs to produce a range of plausible 3-D models. The plausible models are then combined into a single probabilistic model as a means to propagate uncertainty from the input data to the final model. In this paper, several improved methods for MCUE are proposed. The methods pertain to distribution selection for input uncertainty, sample analysis and statistical consistency of the sampled distribution. Pole vector sampling is proposed as a more rigorous alternative than

  16. The impact of changes in parameterizations of surface drag and vertical diffusion on the large-scale circulation in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindvall, Jenny; Svensson, Gunilla; Caballero, Rodrigo

    2017-06-01

    Simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) are used to analyze the sensitivity of the large-scale circulation to changes in parameterizations of orographic surface drag and vertical diffusion. Many GCMs and NWP models use enhanced turbulent mixing in stable conditions to improve simulations, while CAM5 cuts off all turbulence at high stabilities and instead employs a strong orographic surface stress parameterization, known as turbulent mountain stress (TMS). TMS completely dominates the surface stress over land and reduces the near-surface wind speeds compared to simulations without TMS. It is found that TMS is generally beneficial for the large-scale circulation as it improves zonal wind speeds, Arctic sea level pressure and zonal anomalies of the 500-hPa stream function, compared to ERA-Interim. It also alleviates atmospheric blocking frequency biases in the Northern Hemisphere. Using a scheme that instead allows for a modest increase of turbulent diffusion at higher stabilities only in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) appears to in some aspects have a similar, although much smaller, beneficial effect as TMS. Enhanced mixing throughout the atmospheric column, however, degrades the CAM5 simulation. Evaluating the simulations in comparison with detailed measurements at two locations reveals that TMS is detrimental for the PBL at the flat grassland ARM Southern Great Plains site, giving too strong wind turning and too deep PBLs. At the Sodankylä forest site, the effect of TMS is smaller due to the larger local vegetation roughness. At both sites, all simulations substantially overestimate the boundary layer ageostrophic flow.

  17. Testing the importance of accurate meteorological input fields and parameterizations in atmospheric transport modelling using DREAM - Validation against ETEX-1

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brandt, J.; Bastrup-Birk, A.; Christensen, J.H.

    1998-01-01

    A tracer model, the DREAM, which is based on a combination of a near-range Lagrangian model and a long-range Eulerian model, has been developed. The meteorological meso-scale model, MM5V1, is implemented as a meteorological driver for the tracer model. The model system is used for studying...

  18. Improvement of a snow albedo parameterization in the Snow-Atmosphere-Soil Transfer model: evaluation of impacts of aerosol on seasonal snow cover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Efang; Li, Qian; Sun, Shufen; Chen, Wen; Chen, Shangfeng; Nath, Debashis

    2017-11-01

    The presence of light-absorbing aerosols (LAA) in snow profoundly influence the surface energy balance and water budget. However, most snow-process schemes in land-surface and climate models currently do not take this into consideration. To better represent the snow process and to evaluate the impacts of LAA on snow, this study presents an improved snow albedo parameterization in the Snow-Atmosphere-Soil Transfer (SAST) model, which includes the impacts of LAA on snow. Specifically, the Snow, Ice and Aerosol Radiation (SNICAR) model is incorporated into the SAST model with an LAA mass stratigraphy scheme. The new coupled model is validated against in-situ measurements at the Swamp Angel Study Plot (SASP), Colorado, USA. Results show that the snow albedo and snow depth are better reproduced than those in the original SAST, particularly during the period of snow ablation. Furthermore, the impacts of LAA on snow are estimated in the coupled model through case comparisons of the snowpack, with or without LAA. The LAA particles directly absorb extra solar radiation, which accelerates the growth rate of the snow grain size. Meanwhile, these larger snow particles favor more radiative absorption. The average total radiative forcing of the LAA at the SASP is 47.5 W m-2. This extra radiative absorption enhances the snowmelt rate. As a result, the peak runoff time and "snow all gone" day have shifted 18 and 19.5 days earlier, respectively, which could further impose substantial impacts on the hydrologic cycle and atmospheric processes.

  19. RACORO Continental Boundary Layer Cloud Investigations: 3. Separation of Parameterization Biases in Single-Column Model CAM5 Simulations of Shallow Cumulus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Wuyin; Liu, Yangang; Vogelmann, Andrew M.; Fridlind, Ann; Endo, Satoshi; Song, Hua; Feng, Sha; Toto, Tami; Li, Zhijin; Zhang, Minghua

    2015-01-01

    Climatically important low-level clouds are commonly misrepresented in climate models. The FAst-physics System TEstbed and Research (FASTER) Project has constructed case studies from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility's Southern Great Plain site during the RACORO aircraft campaign to facilitate research on model representation of boundary-layer clouds. This paper focuses on using the single-column Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (SCAM5) simulations of a multi-day continental shallow cumulus case to identify specific parameterization causes of low-cloud biases. Consistent model biases among the simulations driven by a set of alternative forcings suggest that uncertainty in the forcing plays only a relatively minor role. In-depth analysis reveals that the model's shallow cumulus convection scheme tends to significantly under-produce clouds during the times when shallow cumuli exist in the observations, while the deep convective and stratiform cloud schemes significantly over-produce low-level clouds throughout the day. The links between model biases and the underlying assumptions of the shallow cumulus scheme are further diagnosed with the aid of large-eddy simulations and aircraft measurements, and by suppressing the triggering of the deep convection scheme. It is found that the weak boundary layer turbulence simulated is directly responsible for the weak cumulus activity and the simulated boundary layer stratiform clouds. Increased vertical and temporal resolutions are shown to lead to stronger boundary layer turbulence and reduction of low-cloud biases.

  20. Parameterization and Sensitivity Analysis of a Complex Simulation Model for Mosquito Population Dynamics, Dengue Transmission, and Their Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Alicia M.; Garcia, Andres J.; Focks, Dana A.; Morrison, Amy C.; Scott, Thomas W.

    2011-01-01

    Models can be useful tools for understanding the dynamics and control of mosquito-borne disease. More detailed models may be more realistic and better suited for understanding local disease dynamics; however, evaluating model suitability, accuracy, and performance becomes increasingly difficult with greater model complexity. Sensitivity analysis is a technique that permits exploration of complex models by evaluating the sensitivity of the model to changes in parameters. Here, we present results of sensitivity analyses of two interrelated complex simulation models of mosquito population dynamics and dengue transmission. We found that dengue transmission may be influenced most by survival in each life stage of the mosquito, mosquito biting behavior, and duration of the infectious period in humans. The importance of these biological processes for vector-borne disease models and the overwhelming lack of knowledge about them make acquisition of relevant field data on these biological processes a top research priority. PMID:21813844

  1. Probabilistic modelling of overflow, surcharge and flooding in urban drainage using the first-order reliability method and parameterization of local rain series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorndahl, S; Willems, P

    2008-01-01

    Failure of urban drainage systems may occur due to surcharge or flooding at specific manholes in the system, or due to overflows from combined sewer systems to receiving waters. To quantify the probability or return period of failure, standard approaches make use of the simulation of design storms or long historical rainfall series in a hydrodynamic model of the urban drainage system. In this paper, an alternative probabilistic method is investigated: the first-order reliability method (FORM). To apply this method, a long rainfall time series was divided in rainstorms (rain events), and each rainstorm conceptualized to a synthetic rainfall hyetograph by a Gaussian shape with the parameters rainstorm depth, duration and peak intensity. Probability distributions were calibrated for these three parameters and used on the basis of the failure probability estimation, together with a hydrodynamic simulation model to determine the failure conditions for each set of parameters. The method takes into account the uncertainties involved in the rainstorm parameterization. Comparison is made between the failure probability results of the FORM method, the standard method using long-term simulations and alternative methods based on random sampling (Monte Carlo direct sampling and importance sampling). It is concluded that without crucial influence on the modelling accuracy, the FORM is very applicable as an alternative to traditional long-term simulations of urban drainage systems.

  2. Automatic Parameterization Strategy for Cardiac Electrophysiology Simulations

    OpenAIRE

    Costa, Caroline Mendonca; Hoetzl, Elena; Rocha, Bernardo Martins; Prassl, Anton J; Plank, Gernot

    2013-01-01

    Driven by recent advances in medical imaging, image segmentation and numerical techniques, computer models of ventricular electrophysiology account for increasingly finer levels of anatomical and biophysical detail. However, considering the large number of model parameters involved parameterization poses a major challenge. A minimum requirement in combined experimental and modeling studies is to achieve good agreement in activation and repolarization sequences between model and experiment or ...

  3. Perspective on the Martini model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marrink, Siewert J.; Tieleman, D. Peter

    2013-01-01

    The Martini model, a coarse-grained force field for biomolecular simulations, has found a broad range of applications since its release a decade ago. Based on a building block principle, the model combines speed and versatility while maintaining chemical specificity. Here we review the current state

  4. Development, Parameterization, and Validation of a Visco-Plastic Material Model for Sand with DifferentLevels of Water Saturation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    in essential physics of the tire –sand interactions. Towards that end, a simpler ribbed- tread tire model (described below) of the type often used for...i.e. the deflection and the contact area) on a rigid sur- face. The tire was modelled in the present work using a ribbed- tread tire model similar to...with material properties representing the composite behaviour through the carcass thick - ness. The tread -cap is constructed using linear, hybrid

  5. Development and Testing of a Life Cycle Model and a Parameterization of Thin Mid-level Stratiform Clouds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krueger, Steven K.

    2008-03-03

    We used a cloud-resolving model (a detailed computer model of cloud systems) to evaluate and improve the representation of clouds in global atmospheric models used for numerical weather prediction and climate modeling. We also used observations of the atmospheric state, including clouds, made at DOE's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program's Climate Research Facility located in the Southern Great Plains (Kansas and Oklahoma) during Intensive Observation Periods to evaluate our detailed computer model as well as a single-column version of a global atmospheric model used for numerical weather prediction (the Global Forecast System of the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction). This so-called Single-Column Modeling approach has proved to be a very effective method for testing the representation of clouds in global atmospheric models. The method relies on detailed observations of the atmospheric state, including clouds, in an atmospheric column comparable in size to a grid column used in a global atmospheric model. The required observations are made by a combination of in situ and remote sensing instruments. One of the greatest problems facing mankind at the present is climate change. Part of the problem is our limited ability to predict the regional patterns of climate change. In order to increase this ability, uncertainties in climate models must be reduced. One of the greatest of these uncertainties is the representation of clouds and cloud processes. This project, and ARM taken as a whole, has helped to improve the representation of clouds in global atmospheric models.

  6. The impact on UT/LS cirrus clouds in the CAM/CARMA model using a new interactive aerosol parameterization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maloney, C.; Toon, B.; Bardeen, C.

    2017-12-01

    Recent studies indicate that heterogeneous nucleation may play a large role in cirrus cloud formation in the UT/LS, a region previously thought to be primarily dominated by homogeneous nucleation. As a result, it is beneficial to ensure that general circulation models properly represent heterogeneous nucleation in ice cloud simulations. Our work strives towards addressing this issue in the NSF/DOE Community Earth System Model's atmospheric model, CAM. More specifically we are addressing the role of heterogeneous nucleation in the coupled sectional microphysics cloud model, CARMA. Currently, our CAM/CARMA cirrus model only performs homogenous ice nucleation while ignoring heterogeneous nucleation. In our work, we couple the CAM/CARMA cirrus model with the Modal Aerosol Model (MAM). By combining the aerosol model with CAM/CARMA we can both account for heterogeneous nucleation, as well as directly link the sulfates used for homogeneous nucleation to computed fields instead of the current static field being utilized. Here we present our initial results and compare our findings to observations from the long running CALIPSO and MODIS satellite missions.

  7. Strategies for control of sudden oak death in Humboldt County-informed guidance based on a parameterized epidemiological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    João A. N. Filipe; Richard C. Cobb; David M. Rizzo; Ross K. Meentemeyer; Christopher A.. Gilligan

    2010-01-01

    Landscape- to regional-scale models of plant epidemics are direly needed to predict largescale impacts of disease and assess practicable options for control. While landscape heterogeneity is recognized as a major driver of disease dynamics, epidemiological models are rarely applied to realistic landscape conditions due to computational and data limitations. Here we...

  8. Coupled carbon-water exchange of the Amazon rain forest. I. Model description, parameterization and sensitivity analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Simon, E.; Meixner, F.X.; Ganzeveld, L.N.; Kesselmeier, J.

    2005-01-01

    Detailed one-dimensional multilayer biosphere-atmosphere models, also referred to as CANVEG models, are used for more than a decade to describe coupled water-carbon exchange between the terrestrial vegetation and the lower atmosphere. Within the present study, a modified CANVEG scheme is described.

  9. Approaches in highly parameterized inversion—PEST++ Version 3, a Parameter ESTimation and uncertainty analysis software suite optimized for large environmental models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welter, David E.; White, Jeremy T.; Hunt, Randall J.; Doherty, John E.

    2015-09-18

    The PEST++ Version 1 object-oriented parameter estimation code is here extended to Version 3 to incorporate additional algorithms and tools to further improve support for large and complex environmental modeling problems. PEST++ Version 3 includes the Gauss-Marquardt-Levenberg (GML) algorithm for nonlinear parameter estimation, Tikhonov regularization, integrated linear-based uncertainty quantification, options of integrated TCP/IP based parallel run management or external independent run management by use of a Version 2 update of the GENIE Version 1 software code, and utilities for global sensitivity analyses. The Version 3 code design is consistent with PEST++ Version 1 and continues to be designed to lower the barriers of entry for users as well as developers while providing efficient and optimized algorithms capable of accommodating large, highly parameterized inverse problems. As such, this effort continues the original focus of (1) implementing the most popular and powerful features of the PEST software suite in a fashion that is easy for novice or experienced modelers to use and (2) developing a software framework that is easy to extend.

  10. Sensitivity of Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance to surface albedo parameterization: a study with a regional climate model

    OpenAIRE

    Angelen, J. H.; Lenaerts, J. T. M.; Lhermitte, S.; Fettweis, X.; Kuipers Munneke, P.; Broeke, M. R.; Meijgaard, E.; Smeets, C. J. P. P.

    2012-01-01

    We present a sensitivity study of the surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland Ice Sheet, as modeled using a regional atmospheric climate model, to various parameter settings in the albedo scheme. The snow albedo scheme uses grain size as a prognostic variable and further depends on cloud cover, solar zenith angle and black carbon concentration. For the control experiment the overestimation of absorbed shortwave radiation (+6%) at the K-transect (west Greenland) for the period 2004–2009 is...

  11. Perspectives in the standard model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellis, R.K.; Hill, C.T.; Lykken, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    Particle physics is an experimentally based science, with a need for the best theorists to make contact with data and to enlarge and enhance their theoretical descriptions as the subject evolves. The authors felt it imperative that the TASI (Theoretical Advanced Study Institute) program reflect this need. The goal of this conference, was to provide the students with a comprehensive look at the current understanding of the standard model, as well as the techniques which promise to advance that understanding in the future. Topics covered include: symmetry breaking in the standard model; physics beyond the standard model; chiral effective Lagrangians; semi-classical string theory; renormalization of electroweak gauge interactions; electroweak experiments at LEP; the CKM matrix and CP violation; axion searches; lattice QCD; perturbative QCD; heavy quark effective field theory; heavy flavor physics on the lattice; and neutrinos. Separate abstracts were prepared for 13 papers in this conference

  12. Parameterization analysis and inversion for orthorhombic media

    KAUST Repository

    Masmoudi, Nabil

    2018-05-01

    Accounting for azimuthal anisotropy is necessary for the processing and inversion of wide-azimuth and wide-aperture seismic data because wave speeds naturally depend on the wave propagation direction. Orthorhombic anisotropy is considered the most effective anisotropic model that approximates the azimuthal anisotropy we observe in seismic data. In the framework of full wave form inversion (FWI), the large number of parameters describing orthorhombic media exerts a considerable trade-off and increases the non-linearity of the inversion problem. Choosing a suitable parameterization for the model, and identifying which parameters in that parameterization could be well resolved, are essential to a successful inversion. In this thesis, I derive the radiation patterns for different acoustic orthorhombic parameterization. Analyzing the angular dependence of the scattering of the parameters of different parameterizations starting with the conventionally used notation, I assess the potential trade-off between the parameters and the resolution in describing the data and inverting for the parameters. In order to build practical inversion strategies, I suggest new parameters (called deviation parameters) for a new parameterization style in orthorhombic media. The novel parameters denoted ∈d, ƞd and δd are dimensionless and represent a measure of deviation between the vertical planes in orthorhombic anisotropy. The main feature of the deviation parameters consists of keeping the scattering of the vertical transversely isotropic (VTI) parameters stationary with azimuth. Using these scattering features, we can condition FWI to invert for the parameters which the data are sensitive to, at different stages, scales, and locations in the model. With this parameterization, the data are mainly sensitive to the scattering of 3 parameters (out of six that describe an acoustic orthorhombic medium): the horizontal velocity in the x1 direction, ∈1 which provides scattering mainly near

  13. Cloud forcing: A modeling perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potter, G.L.; Mobely, R.L.; Drach, R.S.; Corsetti, T.G.; Williams, D.N.; Slingo, J.M.

    1990-11-01

    Radiation fields from a perpetual July integration of a T106 version of the ECMWF operational model are used as surrogate observations of the radiation budget at the top of the atmosphere to illustrate various difficulties that modellers might face when trying to reconcile cloud radiation forcings derived from satellite observations with model-generated ones. Differences between the so-called Methods 1 and 2 of Cess and Potter (1987) and a variant Method 3 are addressed. Method 1 is shown to be the least robust of all methods, due to potential uncertainties related to persistent cloudiness, length of the period over which clear-sky conditions are looked for, biases in retrieved clear-sky quantities due to an insufficient sampling of the diurnal cycle. We advocate the use of Method 2 as the only unambiguous one to produce consistent radiative diagnostics for intercomparing model results. Impact of the three methods on the derived sensitivities and cloud feedbacks following an imposed change in sea surface temperature (used as a surrogate climate change) is discussed. 17 refs., 12 figs., 1 tab

  14. Approaches in highly parameterized inversion: TSPROC, a general time-series processor to assist in model calibration and result summarization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Doherty, John; Walker, John F.; Kelson, Victor A.; Hunt, Randall J.; Cera, Timothy B.

    2012-01-01

    The TSPROC (Time Series PROCessor) computer software uses a simple scripting language to process and analyze time series. It was developed primarily to assist in the calibration of environmental models. The software is designed to perform calculations on time-series data commonly associated with surface-water models, including calculation of flow volumes, transformation by means of basic arithmetic operations, and generation of seasonal and annual statistics and hydrologic indices. TSPROC can also be used to generate some of the key input files required to perform parameter optimization by means of the PEST (Parameter ESTimation) computer software. Through the use of TSPROC, the objective function for use in the model-calibration process can be focused on specific components of a hydrograph.

  15. High-Latitude Stratospheric Sensitivity to QBO Width in a Chemistry-Climate Model with Parameterized Ozone Chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurwitz, M. M.; Braesicke, P.; Pyle, J. A.

    2010-01-01

    In a pair of idealized simulations with a simplified chemistry-climate model, the sensitivity of the wintertime Arctic stratosphere to variability in the width of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is assessed. The width of the QBO appears to have equal influence on the Arctic stratosphere as does the phase (i.e. the Holton-Tan mechanism). In the model, a wider QBO acts like a preferential shift toward the easterly phase of the QBO, where zonal winds at 60 N tend to be relatively weaker, while 50 hPa geopotential heights and polar ozone values tend to be higher.

  16. Modelling winter organic aerosol at the European scale with CAMx: evaluation and source apportionment with a VBS parameterization based on novel wood burning smog chamber experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciarelli, Giancarlo; Aksoyoglu, Sebnem; El Haddad, Imad; Bruns, Emily A.; Crippa, Monica; Poulain, Laurent; Äijälä, Mikko; Carbone, Samara; Freney, Evelyn; O'Dowd, Colin; Baltensperger, Urs; Prévôt, André S. H.

    2017-06-01

    We evaluated a modified VBS (volatility basis set) scheme to treat biomass-burning-like organic aerosol (BBOA) implemented in CAMx (Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions). The updated scheme was parameterized with novel wood combustion smog chamber experiments using a hybrid VBS framework which accounts for a mixture of wood burning organic aerosol precursors and their further functionalization and fragmentation in the atmosphere. The new scheme was evaluated for one of the winter EMEP intensive campaigns (February-March 2009) against aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) measurements performed at 11 sites in Europe. We found a considerable improvement for the modelled organic aerosol (OA) mass compared to our previous model application with the mean fractional bias (MFB) reduced from -61 to -29 %. We performed model-based source apportionment studies and compared results against positive matrix factorization (PMF) analysis performed on OA AMS data. Both model and observations suggest that OA was mainly of secondary origin at almost all sites. Modelled secondary organic aerosol (SOA) contributions to total OA varied from 32 to 88 % (with an average contribution of 62 %) and absolute concentrations were generally under-predicted. Modelled primary hydrocarbon-like organic aerosol (HOA) and primary biomass-burning-like aerosol (BBPOA) fractions contributed to a lesser extent (HOA from 3 to 30 %, and BBPOA from 1 to 39 %) with average contributions of 13 and 25 %, respectively. Modelled BBPOA fractions were found to represent 12 to 64 % of the total residential-heating-related OA, with increasing contributions at stations located in the northern part of the domain. Source apportionment studies were performed to assess the contribution of residential and non-residential combustion precursors to the total SOA. Non-residential combustion and road transportation sector contributed about 30-40 % to SOA formation (with increasing contributions at urban and near

  17. Parameterizing Spatial Models of Infectious Disease Transmission that Incorporate Infection Time Uncertainty Using Sampling-Based Likelihood Approximations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajat Malik

    Full Text Available A class of discrete-time models of infectious disease spread, referred to as individual-level models (ILMs, are typically fitted in a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC framework. These models quantify probabilistic outcomes regarding the risk of infection of susceptible individuals due to various susceptibility and transmissibility factors, including their spatial distance from infectious individuals. The infectious pressure from infected individuals exerted on susceptible individuals is intrinsic to these ILMs. Unfortunately, quantifying this infectious pressure for data sets containing many individuals can be computationally burdensome, leading to a time-consuming likelihood calculation and, thus, computationally prohibitive MCMC-based analysis. This problem worsens when using data augmentation to allow for uncertainty in infection times. In this paper, we develop sampling methods that can be used to calculate a fast, approximate likelihood when fitting such disease models. A simple random sampling approach is initially considered followed by various spatially-stratified schemes. We test and compare the performance of our methods with both simulated data and data from the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD epidemic in the U.K. Our results indicate that substantial computation savings can be obtained--albeit, of course, with some information loss--suggesting that such techniques may be of use in the analysis of very large epidemic data sets.

  18. Improvement in the Modeled Representation of North American Monsoon Precipitation Using a Modified Kain–Fritsch Convective Parameterization Scheme

    KAUST Repository

    Luong, Thang; Castro, Christopher; Nguyen, Truong; Cassell, William; Chang, Hsin-I

    2018-01-01

    A commonly noted problem in the simulation of warm season convection in the North American monsoon region has been the inability of atmospheric models at the meso-β scales (10 s to 100 s of kilometers) to simulate organized convection, principally

  19. On the Relationship between Observed NLDN Lightning Strikes and Modeled Convective Precipitation Rates Parameterization of Lightning NOx Production in CMAQ

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lightning-produced nitrogen oxides (NOX=NO+NO2) in the middle and upper troposphere play an essential role in the production of ozone (O3) and influence the oxidizing capacity of the troposphere. Despite much effort in both observing and modeling lightning NOX during the past dec...

  20. Meta-analysis of field-saturated hydraulic conductivity recovery following wildland fire: Applications for hydrologic model parameterization and resilience assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebel, Brian A.; Martin, Deborah

    2017-01-01

    Hydrologic recovery after wildfire is critical for restoring the ecosystem services of protecting of human lives and infrastructure from hazards and delivering water supply of sufficient quality and quantity. Recovery of soil-hydraulic properties, such as field-saturated hydraulic conductivity (Kfs), is a key factor for assessing the duration of watershed-scale flash flood and debris flow risks after wildfire. Despite the crucial role of Kfs in parameterizing numerical hydrologic models to predict the magnitude of postwildfire run-off and erosion, existing quantitative relations to predict Kfsrecovery with time since wildfire are lacking. Here, we conduct meta-analyses of 5 datasets from the literature that measure or estimate Kfs with time since wildfire for longer than 3-year duration. The meta-analyses focus on fitting 2 quantitative relations (linear and non-linear logistic) to explain trends in Kfs temporal recovery. The 2 relations adequately described temporal recovery except for 1 site where macropore flow dominated infiltration and Kfs recovery. This work also suggests that Kfs can have low hydrologic resistance (large postfire changes), and moderate to high hydrologic stability (recovery time relative to disturbance recurrence interval) and resilience (recovery of hydrologic function and provision of ecosystem services). Future Kfs relations could more explicitly incorporate processes such as soil-water repellency, ground cover and soil structure regeneration, macropore recovery, and vegetation regrowth.

  1. Sensitivity of ecological soil-screening levels for metals to exposure model parameterization and toxicity reference values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sample, Bradley E; Fairbrother, Anne; Kaiser, Ashley; Law, Sheryl; Adams, Bill

    2014-10-01

    Ecological soil-screening levels (Eco-SSLs) were developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) for the purposes of setting conservative soil screening values that can be used to eliminate the need for further ecological assessment for specific analytes at a given site. Ecological soil-screening levels for wildlife represent a simplified dietary exposure model solved in terms of soil concentrations to produce exposure equal to a no-observed-adverse-effect toxicity reference value (TRV). Sensitivity analyses were performed for 6 avian and mammalian model species, and 16 metals/metalloids for which Eco-SSLs have been developed. The relative influence of model parameters was expressed as the absolute value of the range of variation observed in the resulting soil concentration when exposure is equal to the TRV. Rank analysis of variance was used to identify parameters with greatest influence on model output. For both birds and mammals, soil ingestion displayed the broadest overall range (variability), although TRVs consistently had the greatest influence on calculated soil concentrations; bioavailability in food was consistently the least influential parameter, although an important site-specific variable. Relative importance of parameters differed by trophic group. Soil ingestion ranked 2nd for carnivores and herbivores, but was 4th for invertivores. Different patterns were exhibited, depending on which parameter, trophic group, and analyte combination was considered. The approach for TRV selection was also examined in detail, with Cu as the representative analyte. The underlying assumption that generic body-weight-normalized TRVs can be used to derive protective levels for any species is not supported by the data. Whereas the use of site-, species-, and analyte-specific exposure parameters is recommended to reduce variation in exposure estimates (soil protection level), improvement of TRVs is more problematic. © 2014 The Authors

  2. Parameterization of the driving time in the evacuation or fast relocation model of an accident consequence code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pfeffer, W.; Hofer, E.; Nowak, E.; Schnadt, H.

    1988-01-01

    The model of protective measures in the accident consequence code system UFOMOD of the German Risk Study, Phase B, requires the driving times of the population to be evacuated for the evaluation of the dose received during the evacuation. The parameter values are derived from evacuation simulations carried out with the code EVAS for 36 sectors from various sites. The simulations indicated that the driving time strongly depends on the population density, whereas other influences are less important. It was decided to use different driving times in the consequence code for each of four population density classes as well as for each of three or four fractions of the population in a sector. The variability between sectors of a class was estimated from the 36 sectors, in order to derive subjective probability distributions that are to model the uncertainty in the parameter value to be used for any of the fractions in a particular sector for which an EVAS simulation has not yet been performed. To this end also the impact of the uncertainties in the parameters and modelling assumptions of EVAS on the simulated times was quantified using expert judgement. The distributions permit the derivation of a set of driving times to be used as so-called ''best estimate'' or reference values in the accident consequence code. Additionally they are directly applicable in an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

  3. Sensitivity of a two-dimensional chemistry-transport model to changes in parameterizations of radiative processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grant, K.E.; Ellingson, R.G.; Wuebbles, D.J.

    1988-08-01

    Radiative processes strongly effect equilibrium trace gas concentrations both directly, through photolysis reactions, and indirectly through temperature and transport processes. As part of our continuing radiative submodel development and validation, we have used the LLNL 2-D chemical-radiative-transport (CRT) model to investigate the net sensitivity of equilibrium ozone concentrations to several changes in radiative forcing. Doubling CO 2 from 300 ppmv to 600 ppmv resulted in a temperature decrease of 5 K to 8 K in the middle stratosphere along with an 8% to 16% increase in ozone in the same region. Replacing our usual shortwave scattering algorithms with a simplified Rayleigh algorithm led to a 1% to 2% increase in ozone in the lower stratosphere. Finally, modifying our normal CO 2 cooling rates by corrections derived from line-by-line calculations resulted in several regions of heating and cooling. We observed temperature changes on the order of 1 K to 1.5 K with corresponding changes of 0.5% to 1.5% in O 3 . Our results for doubled CO 2 compare favorably with those by other authors. Results for our two perturbation scenarios stress the need for accurately modeling radiative processes while confirming the general validity of current 2-D CRT models. 15 refs., 5 figs

  4. Comparison of mean properties of simulated convection in a cloud-resolving model with those produced by cumulus parameterization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dudhia, J.; Parsons, D.B. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    1996-04-01

    An Intensive Observation Period (IOP) of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program took place at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) site from June 16-26, 1993. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) has been used to simulate this period on a 60-km domain with 20- and 6.67-km nests centered on Lamont, Oklahoma. Simulations are being run with data assimilation by the nudging technique to incorporate upper-air and surface data from a variety of platforms. The model maintains dynamical consistency between the fields, while the data correct for model biases that may occur during long-term simulations and provide boundary conditions. For the work reported here the Mesoscale Atmospheric Prediction System (MAPS) of the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 3-hourly analyses were used to drive the 60-km domain while the inner domains were unforced. A continuous 10-day period was simulated.

  5. Optimal Physics Parameterization Scheme Combination of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for Seasonal Precipitation Simulation over Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard Yao Kuma Agyeman

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Seasonal predictions of precipitation, among others, are important to help mitigate the effects of drought and floods on agriculture, hydropower generation, disasters, and many more. This work seeks to obtain a suitable combination of physics schemes of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model for seasonal precipitation simulation over Ghana. Using the ERA-Interim reanalysis as forcing data, simulation experiments spanning eight months (from April to November were performed for two different years: a dry year (2001 and a wet year (2008. A double nested approach was used with the outer domain at 50 km resolution covering West Africa and the inner domain covering Ghana at 10 km resolution. The results suggest that the WRF model generally overestimated the observed precipitation by a mean value between 3% and 64% for both years. Most of the scheme combinations overestimated (underestimated precipitation over coastal (northern zones of Ghana for both years but estimated precipitation reasonably well over forest and transitional zones. On the whole, the combination of WRF Single-Moment 6-Class Microphysics Scheme, Grell-Devenyi Ensemble Cumulus Scheme, and Asymmetric Convective Model Planetary Boundary Layer Scheme simulated the best temporal pattern and temporal variability with the least relative bias for both years and therefore is recommended for Ghana.

  6. Using Leaf Chlorophyll to Parameterize Light-Use-Efficiency Within a Thermal-Based Carbon, Water and Energy Exchange Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houlborg, Rasmus; Anderson, Martha C.; Daughtry, C. S. T.; Kustas, W. P.; Rodell, Matthew

    2010-01-01

    Chlorophylls absorb photosynthetically active radiation and thus function as vital pigments for photosynthesis, which makes leaf chlorophyll content (C(sub ab) useful for monitoring vegetation productivity and an important indicator of the overall plant physiological condition. This study investigates the utility of integrating remotely sensed estimates of C(sub ab) into a thermal-based Two-Source Energy Balance (TSEB) model that estimates land-surface CO2 and energy fluxes using an analytical, light-use-efficiency (LUE) based model of canopy resistance. The LUE model component computes canopy-scale carbon assimilation and transpiration fluxes and incorporates LUE modifications from a nominal (species-dependent) value (LUE(sub n)) in response to short term variations in environmental conditions, However LUE(sub n) may need adjustment on a daily timescale to accommodate changes in plant phenology, physiological condition and nutrient status. Day to day variations in LUE(sub n) were assessed for a heterogeneous corn crop field in Maryland, U,S.A. through model calibration with eddy covariance CO2 flux tower observations. The optimized daily LUE(sub n) values were then compared to estimates of C(sub ab) integrated from gridded maps of chlorophyll content weighted over the tower flux source area. The time continuous maps of daily C(sub ab) over the study field were generated by focusing in-situ measurements with retrievals generated with an integrated radiative transfer modeling tool (accurate to within +/-10%) using at-sensor radiances in green, red and near-infrared wavelengths acquired with an aircraft imaging system. The resultant daily changes in C(sub ab) within the tower flux source area generally correlated well with corresponding changes in daily calibrated LUE(sub n) derived from the tower flux data, and hourly water, energy and carbon flux estimation accuracies from TSEB were significantly improved when using C(sub ab) for delineating spatio

  7. Prognostic parameterization of cloud ice with a single category in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM(v6.3.0)-HAM(v2.3)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietlicher, Remo; Neubauer, David; Lohmann, Ulrike

    2018-04-01

    A new scheme for stratiform cloud microphysics has been implemented in the ECHAM6-HAM2 general circulation model. It features a widely used description of cloud water with two categories for cloud droplets and raindrops. The unique aspect of the new scheme is the break with the traditional approach to describe cloud ice analogously. Here we parameterize cloud ice by a single category that predicts bulk particle properties (P3). This method has already been applied in a regional model and most recently also in the Community Atmosphere Model 5 (CAM5). A single cloud ice category does not rely on heuristic conversion rates from one category to another. Therefore, it is conceptually easier and closer to first principles. This work shows that a single category is a viable approach to describe cloud ice in climate models. Prognostic representation of sedimentation is achieved by a nested approach for sub-stepping the cloud microphysics scheme. This yields good results in terms of accuracy and performance as compared to simulations with high temporal resolution. Furthermore, the new scheme allows for a competition between various cloud processes and is thus able to unbiasedly represent the ice formation pathway from nucleation to growth by vapor deposition and collisions to sedimentation. Specific aspects of the P3 method are evaluated. We could not produce a purely stratiform cloud where rime growth dominates growth by vapor deposition and conclude that the lack of appropriate conditions renders the prognostic parameters associated with the rime properties unnecessary. Limitations inherent in a single category are examined.

  8. A Deep Learning Algorithm of Neural Network for the Parameterization of Typhoon-Ocean Feedback in Typhoon Forecast Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Guo-Qing; Xu, Jing; Wei, Jun

    2018-04-01

    Two algorithms based on machine learning neural networks are proposed—the shallow learning (S-L) and deep learning (D-L) algorithms—that can potentially be used in atmosphere-only typhoon forecast models to provide flow-dependent typhoon-induced sea surface temperature cooling (SSTC) for improving typhoon predictions. The major challenge of existing SSTC algorithms in forecast models is how to accurately predict SSTC induced by an upcoming typhoon, which requires information not only from historical data but more importantly also from the target typhoon itself. The S-L algorithm composes of a single layer of neurons with mixed atmospheric and oceanic factors. Such a structure is found to be unable to represent correctly the physical typhoon-ocean interaction. It tends to produce an unstable SSTC distribution, for which any perturbations may lead to changes in both SSTC pattern and strength. The D-L algorithm extends the neural network to a 4 × 5 neuron matrix with atmospheric and oceanic factors being separated in different layers of neurons, so that the machine learning can determine the roles of atmospheric and oceanic factors in shaping the SSTC. Therefore, it produces a stable crescent-shaped SSTC distribution, with its large-scale pattern determined mainly by atmospheric factors (e.g., winds) and small-scale features by oceanic factors (e.g., eddies). Sensitivity experiments reveal that the D-L algorithms improve maximum wind intensity errors by 60-70% for four case study simulations, compared to their atmosphere-only model runs.

  9. Mathematical modeling a chemical engineer's perspective

    CERN Document Server

    Rutherford, Aris

    1999-01-01

    Mathematical modeling is the art and craft of building a system of equations that is both sufficiently complex to do justice to physical reality and sufficiently simple to give real insight into the situation. Mathematical Modeling: A Chemical Engineer's Perspective provides an elementary introduction to the craft by one of the century's most distinguished practitioners.Though the book is written from a chemical engineering viewpoint, the principles and pitfalls are common to all mathematical modeling of physical systems. Seventeen of the author's frequently cited papers are reprinted to illus

  10. Automatic Parameterization Strategy for Cardiac Electrophysiology Simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Caroline Mendonca; Hoetzl, Elena; Rocha, Bernardo Martins; Prassl, Anton J; Plank, Gernot

    2013-10-01

    Driven by recent advances in medical imaging, image segmentation and numerical techniques, computer models of ventricular electrophysiology account for increasingly finer levels of anatomical and biophysical detail. However, considering the large number of model parameters involved parameterization poses a major challenge. A minimum requirement in combined experimental and modeling studies is to achieve good agreement in activation and repolarization sequences between model and experiment or patient data. In this study, we propose basic techniques which aid in determining bidomain parameters to match activation sequences. An iterative parameterization algorithm is implemented which determines appropriate bulk conductivities which yield prescribed velocities. In addition, a method is proposed for splitting the computed bulk conductivities into individual bidomain conductivities by prescribing anisotropy ratios.

  11. New insight of Arctic cloud parameterization from regional climate model simulations, satellite-based, and drifting station data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klaus, D.; Dethloff, K.; Dorn, W.; Rinke, A.; Wu, D. L.

    2016-05-01

    Cloud observations from the CloudSat and CALIPSO satellites helped to explain the reduced total cloud cover (Ctot) in the atmospheric regional climate model HIRHAM5 with modified cloud physics. Arctic climate conditions are found to be better reproduced with (1) a more efficient Bergeron-Findeisen process and (2) a more generalized subgrid-scale variability of total water content. As a result, the annual cycle of Ctot is improved over sea ice, associated with an almost 14% smaller area average than in the control simulation. The modified cloud scheme reduces the Ctot bias with respect to the satellite observations. Except for autumn, the cloud reduction over sea ice improves low-level temperature profiles compared to drifting station data. The HIRHAM5 sensitivity study highlights the need for improving accuracy of low-level (<700 m) cloud observations, as these clouds exert a strong impact on the near-surface climate.

  12. A new parameterization for surface ocean light attenuation in Earth System Models: assessing the impact of light absorption by colored detrital material

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, G. E.; Pradal, M.-A.; Gnanadesikan, A.

    2015-03-01

    Light limitation can affect the distribution of biota and nutrients in the ocean. Light absorption by colored detrital material (CDM) was included in a fully coupled Earth System Model using a new parameterization for shortwave attenuation. Two model runs were conducted, with and without light attenuation by CDM. In a global average sense, greater light limitation associated with CDM increased surface chlorophyll, biomass and nutrients together. These changes can be attributed to the movement of biological productivity higher up the water column, which increased surface chlorophyll and biomass while simultaneously decreasing total biomass. Meanwhile, the reduction in biomass resulted in greater nutrient availability throughout the water column. Similar results were found on a regional scale in an analysis of the oceans by biome. In coastal regions, surface chlorophyll increased by 35% while total integrated phytoplankton biomass diminished by 18%. The largest relative increases in modeled surface chlorophyll and biomass in the open ocean were found in the equatorial biomes, while largest decreases in depth-integrated biomass and chlorophyll were found in the subpolar and polar biomes. This mismatch of surface and subsurface trends and their regional dependence was analyzed by comparing the competing factors of diminished light availability and increased nutrient availability on phytoplankton growth in the upper 200 m. Overall, increases in surface biomass were expected to accompany greater nutrient uptake and therefore diminish surface nutrients, but changes in light limitation decoupled trends between these two variables. Understanding changes in biological productivity requires both surface and depth-resolved information. Surface trends may be minimal or of the opposite sign to depth-integrated amounts, depending on the vertical structure of phytoplankton abundance.

  13. When probabilistic seismic hazard climbs volcanoes: the Mt. Etna case, Italy - Part 1: Model components for sources parameterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azzaro, Raffaele; Barberi, Graziella; D'Amico, Salvatore; Pace, Bruno; Peruzza, Laura; Tuvè, Tiziana

    2017-11-01

    The volcanic region of Mt. Etna (Sicily, Italy) represents a perfect lab for testing innovative approaches to seismic hazard assessment. This is largely due to the long record of historical and recent observations of seismic and tectonic phenomena, the high quality of various geophysical monitoring and particularly the rapid geodynamics clearly demonstrate some seismotectonic processes. We present here the model components and the procedures adopted for defining seismic sources to be used in a new generation of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), the first results and maps of which are presented in a companion paper, Peruzza et al. (2017). The sources include, with increasing complexity, seismic zones, individual faults and gridded point sources that are obtained by integrating geological field data with long and short earthquake datasets (the historical macroseismic catalogue, which covers about 3 centuries, and a high-quality instrumental location database for the last decades). The analysis of the frequency-magnitude distribution identifies two main fault systems within the volcanic complex featuring different seismic rates that are controlled essentially by volcano-tectonic processes. We discuss the variability of the mean occurrence times of major earthquakes along the main Etnean faults by using an historical approach and a purely geologic method. We derive a magnitude-size scaling relationship specifically for this volcanic area, which has been implemented into a recently developed software tool - FiSH (Pace et al., 2016) - that we use to calculate the characteristic magnitudes and the related mean recurrence times expected for each fault. Results suggest that for the Mt. Etna area, the traditional assumptions of uniform and Poissonian seismicity can be relaxed; a time-dependent fault-based modeling, joined with a 3-D imaging of volcano-tectonic sources depicted by the recent instrumental seismicity, can therefore be implemented in PSHA maps

  14. Improving representation of convective transport for scale-aware parameterization: 2. Analysis of cloud-resolving model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yi-Chin; Fan, Jiwen; Zhang, Guang J.; Xu, Kuan-Man; Ghan, Steven J.

    2015-04-01

    Following Part I, in which 3-D cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations of a squall line and mesoscale convective complex in the midlatitude continental and the tropical regions are conducted and evaluated, we examine the scale dependence of eddy transport of water vapor, evaluate different eddy transport formulations, and improve the representation of convective transport across all scales by proposing a new formulation that more accurately represents the CRM-calculated eddy flux. CRM results show that there are strong grid-spacing dependencies of updraft and downdraft fractions regardless of altitudes, cloud life stage, and geographical location. As for the eddy transport of water vapor, updraft eddy flux is a major contributor to total eddy flux in the lower and middle troposphere. However, downdraft eddy transport can be as large as updraft eddy transport in the lower atmosphere especially at the mature stage of midlatitude continental convection. We show that the single-updraft approach significantly underestimates updraft eddy transport of water vapor because it fails to account for the large internal variability of updrafts, while a single downdraft represents the downdraft eddy transport of water vapor well. We find that using as few as three updrafts can account for the internal variability of updrafts well. Based on the evaluation with the CRM simulated data, we recommend a simplified eddy transport formulation that considers three updrafts and one downdraft. Such formulation is similar to the conventional one but much more accurately represents CRM-simulated eddy flux across all grid scales.

  15. New and extended parameterization of the thermodynamic model AIOMFAC: calculation of activity coefficients for organic-inorganic mixtures containing carboxyl, hydroxyl, carbonyl, ether, ester, alkenyl, alkyl, and aromatic functional groups

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Zuend

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available We present a new and considerably extended parameterization of the thermodynamic activity coefficient model AIOMFAC (Aerosol Inorganic-Organic Mixtures Functional groups Activity Coefficients at room temperature. AIOMFAC combines a Pitzer-like electrolyte solution model with a UNIFAC-based group-contribution approach and explicitly accounts for interactions between organic functional groups and inorganic ions. Such interactions constitute the salt-effect, may cause liquid-liquid phase separation, and affect the gas-particle partitioning of aerosols. The previous AIOMFAC version was parameterized for alkyl and hydroxyl functional groups of alcohols and polyols. With the goal to describe a wide variety of organic compounds found in atmospheric aerosols, we extend here the parameterization of AIOMFAC to include the functional groups carboxyl, hydroxyl, ketone, aldehyde, ether, ester, alkenyl, alkyl, aromatic carbon-alcohol, and aromatic hydrocarbon. Thermodynamic equilibrium data of organic-inorganic systems from the literature are critically assessed and complemented with new measurements to establish a comprehensive database. The database is used to determine simultaneously the AIOMFAC parameters describing interactions of organic functional groups with the ions H+, Li+, Na+, K+, NH4+, Mg2+, Ca2+, Cl, Br, NO3, HSO4, and SO42−. Detailed descriptions of different types of thermodynamic data, such as vapor-liquid, solid-liquid, and liquid-liquid equilibria, and their use for the model parameterization are provided. Issues regarding deficiencies of the database, types and uncertainties of experimental data, and limitations of the model, are discussed. The challenging parameter optimization problem is solved with a novel combination of powerful global minimization

  16. Land-surface modelling in hydrological perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Overgaard, Jesper; Rosbjerg, Dan; Butts, M.B.

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of the different types of energy-based land-surface models (LSMs) and discuss some of the new possibilities that will arise when energy-based LSMs are combined with distributed hydrological modelling. We choose to focus on energy-based approaches......, and the difficulties inherent in various evaluation procedures are presented. Finally, the dynamic coupling of hydrological and atmospheric models is explored, and the perspectives of such efforts are discussed......., because in comparison to the traditional potential evapotranspiration models, these approaches allow for a stronger link to remote sensing and atmospheric modelling. New opportunities for evaluation of distributed land-surface models through application of remote sensing are discussed in detail...

  17. Heavy hadron spectroscopy: A quark model perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vijande, J.; Valcarce, A.; Caramés, T.F.; Garcilazo, H.

    2013-01-01

    We present recent results of hadron spectroscopy and hadron–hadron interaction from the perspective of constituent quark models. We pay special attention to the role played by higher order Fock space components in the hadron spectra and the connection of this extension with the hadron–hadron interaction. The main goal of our description is to obtain a coherent understanding of the low-energy hadron phenomenology without enforcing any particular model, to constrain its characteristics and learn about low-energy realization of the theory

  18. The dynamical core, physical parameterizations, and basic simulation characteristics of the atmospheric component AM3 of the GFDL global coupled model CM3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, L.J.; Wyman, B.L.; Hemler, R.S.; Horowitz, L.W.; Ming, Y.; Zhao, M.; Golaz, J.-C.; Ginoux, P.; Lin, S.-J.; Schwarzkopf, M.D.; Austin, J.; Alaka, G.; Cooke, W.F.; Delworth, T.L.; Freidenreich, S.M.; Gordon, C.T.; Griffies, S.M.; Held, I.M.; Hurlin, W.J.; Klein, S.A.; Knutson, T.R.; Langenhorst, A.R.; Lee, H.-C.; Lin, Y.; Magi, B.I.; Malyshev, S.L.; Milly, P.C.D.; Naik, V.; Nath, M.J.; Pincus, R.; Ploshay, J.J.; Ramaswamy, V.; Seman, C.J.; Shevliakova, E.; Sirutis, J.J.; Stern, W.F.; Stouffer, R.J.; Wilson, R.J.; Winton, M.; Wittenberg, A.T.; Zeng, F.

    2011-01-01

    The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) has developed a coupled general circulation model (CM3) for the atmosphere, oceans, land, and sea ice. The goal of CM3 is to address emerging issues in climate change, including aerosol-cloud interactions, chemistry-climate interactions, and coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere. The model is also designed to serve as the physical system component of earth system models and models for decadal prediction in the near-term future-for example, through improved simulations in tropical land precipitation relative to earlier-generation GFDL models. This paper describes the dynamical core, physical parameterizations, and basic simulation characteristics of the atmospheric component (AM3) of this model. Relative to GFDL AM2, AM3 includes new treatments of deep and shallow cumulus convection, cloud droplet activation by aerosols, subgrid variability of stratiform vertical velocities for droplet activation, and atmospheric chemistry driven by emissions with advective, convective, and turbulent transport. AM3 employs a cubed-sphere implementation of a finite-volume dynamical core and is coupled to LM3, a new land model with ecosystem dynamics and hydrology. Its horizontal resolution is approximately 200 km, and its vertical resolution ranges approximately from 70 m near the earth's surface to 1 to 1.5 km near the tropopause and 3 to 4 km in much of the stratosphere. Most basic circulation features in AM3 are simulated as realistically, or more so, as in AM2. In particular, dry biases have been reduced over South America. In coupled mode, the simulation of Arctic sea ice concentration has improved. AM3 aerosol optical depths, scattering properties, and surface clear-sky downward shortwave radiation are more realistic than in AM2. The simulation of marine stratocumulus decks remains problematic, as in AM2. The most intense 0.2% of precipitation rates occur less frequently in AM3 than observed. The last two decades of

  19. Ensemble assimilation of JASON/ENVISAT and JASON/AltiKA altimetric observations with stochastic parameterization of the model dynamical uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brasseur, Pierre; Candille, Guillem; Bouttier, Pierre-Antoine; Brankart, Jean-Michel; Verron, Jacques

    2015-04-01

    The objective of this study is to explicitly simulate and quantify the uncertainty related to sea-level anomalies diagnosed from eddy-resolving ocean circulation models, in order to develop advanced methods suitable for addressing along-track altimetric data assimilation into such models. This work is carried out jointly with the MyOcean and SANGOMA (Stochastic Assimilation for the Next Generation Ocean Model Applications) consortium, funded by EU under the GMES umbrella over the 2012-2015 period. In this framework, a realistic circulation model of the North Atlantic ocean at 1/4° resolution (NATL025 configuration) has been adapted to include effects of unresolved scales on the dynamics. This is achieved by introducing stochastic perturbations of the equation of state to represent the associated model uncertainty. Assimilation experiments are designed using altimetric data from past and on-going missions (Jason-2 and Saral/AltiKA experiments, and Cryosat-2 for fully independent altimetric validation) to better control the Gulf Stream circulation, especially the frontal regions which are predominantly affected by the non-resolved dynamical scales. An ensemble based on such stochastic perturbations is then produced and evaluated -through the probabilistic criteria: the reliability and the resolution- using the model equivalent of along-track altimetric observations. These three elements (stochastic parameterization, ensemble simulation and 4D observation operator) are used together to perform optimal 4D analysis of along-track altimetry over 10-day assimilation windows. In this presentation, the results show that the free ensemble -before starting the assimilation process- well reproduces the climatological variability over the Gulf Stream area: the system is then pretty reliable but no informative (null probabilistic resolution). Updating the free ensemble with altimetric data leads to a better reliability and to an improvement of the information (resolution

  20. An Evaluation of Marine Boundary Layer Cloud Property Simulations in the Community Atmosphere Model Using Satellite Observations: Conventional Subgrid Parameterization versus CLUBB

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Hua [Joint Center for Earth Systems Technology, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Baltimore, Maryland; Zhang, Zhibo [Joint Center for Earth Systems Technology, and Physics Department, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Baltimore, Maryland; Ma, Po-Lun [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Ghan, Steven J. [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Wang, Minghuai [Institute for Climate and Global Change Research, and School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China

    2018-03-01

    This paper presents a two-step evaluation of the marine boundary layer (MBL) cloud properties from two Community Atmospheric Model (version 5.3, CAM5) simulations, one based on the CAM5 standard parameterization schemes (CAM5-Base), and the other on the Cloud Layers Unified By Binormals (CLUBB) scheme (CAM5-CLUBB). In the first step, we compare the cloud properties directly from model outputs between the two simulations. We find that the CAM5-CLUBB run produces more MBL clouds in the tropical and subtropical large-scale descending regions. Moreover, the stratocumulus (Sc) to cumulus (Cu) cloud regime transition is much smoother in CAM5-CLUBB than in CAM5-Base. In addition, in CAM5-Base we find some grid cells with very small low cloud fraction (<20%) to have very high in-cloud water content (mixing ratio up to 400mg/kg). We find no such grid cells in the CAM5-CLUBB run. However, we also note that both simulations, especially CAM5-CLUBB, produce a significant amount of “empty” low cloud cells with significant cloud fraction (up to 70%) and near-zero in-cloud water content. In the second step, we use satellite observations from CERES, MODIS and CloudSat to evaluate the simulated MBL cloud properties by employing the COSP satellite simulators. We note that a feature of the COSP-MODIS simulator to mimic the minimum detection threshold of MODIS cloud masking removes much more low clouds from CAM5-CLUBB than it does from CAM5-Base. This leads to a surprising result — in the large-scale descending regions CAM5-CLUBB has a smaller COSP-MODIS cloud fraction and weaker shortwave cloud radiative forcing than CAM5-Base. A sensitivity study suggests that this is because CAM5-CLUBB suffers more from the above-mentioned “empty” clouds issue than CAM5-Base. The COSP-MODIS cloud droplet effective radius in CAM5-CLUBB shows a spatial increase from coastal St toward Cu, which is in qualitative agreement with MODIS observations. In contrast, COSP-MODIS cloud droplet

  1. Best convective parameterization scheme within RegCM4 to downscale CMIP5 multi-model data for the CORDEX-MENA/Arab domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almazroui, Mansour; Islam, Md. Nazrul; Al-Khalaf, A. K.; Saeed, Fahad

    2016-05-01

    A suitable convective parameterization scheme within Regional Climate Model version 4.3.4 (RegCM4) developed by the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy, is investigated through 12 sensitivity runs for the period 2000-2010. RegCM4 is driven with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim 6-hourly boundary condition fields for the CORDEX-MENA/Arab domain. Besides ERA-Interim lateral boundary conditions data, the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) data is also used to assess the performance of RegCM4. Different statistical measures are taken into consideration in assessing model performance for 11 sub-domains throughout the analysis domain, out of which 7 (4) sub-domains give drier (wetter) conditions for the area of interest. There is no common best option for the simulation of both rainfall and temperature (with lowest bias); however, one option each for temperature and rainfall has been found to be superior among the 12 options investigated in this study. These best options for the two variables vary from region to region as well. Overall, RegCM4 simulates large pressure and water vapor values along with lower wind speeds compared to the driving fields, which are the key sources of bias in simulating rainfall and temperature. Based on the climatic characteristics of most of the Arab countries located within the study domain, the drier sub-domains are given priority in the selection of a suitable convective scheme, albeit with a compromise for both rainfall and temperature simulations. The most suitable option Grell over Land and Emanuel over Ocean in wet (GLEO wet) delivers a rainfall wet bias of 2.96 % and a temperature cold bias of 0.26 °C, compared to CRU data. An ensemble derived from all 12 runs provides unsatisfactory results for rainfall (28.92 %) and temperature (-0.54 °C) bias in the drier region because some options highly overestimate rainfall (reaching up to 200 %) and underestimate

  2. An energetically consistent vertical mixing parameterization in CCSM4

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren Borg; Jochum, Markus; Eden, Carsten

    2018-01-01

    An energetically consistent stratification-dependent vertical mixing parameterization is implemented in the Community Climate System Model 4 and forced with energy conversion from the barotropic tides to internal waves. The structures of the resulting dissipation and diffusivity fields are compared......, however, depends greatly on the details of the vertical mixing parameterizations, where the new energetically consistent parameterization results in low thermocline diffusivities and a sharper and shallower thermocline. It is also investigated if the ocean state is more sensitive to a change in forcing...

  3. Invariant box-parameterization of neutrino oscillations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weiler, Thomas J.; Wagner, DJ

    1998-01-01

    The model-independent 'box' parameterization of neutrino oscillations is examined. The invariant boxes are the classical amplitudes of the individual oscillating terms. Being observables, the boxes are independent of the choice of parameterization of the mixing matrix. Emphasis is placed on the relations among the box parameters due to mixing-matrix unitarity, and on the reduction of the number of boxes to the minimum basis set. Using the box algebra, we show that CP-violation may be inferred from measurements of neutrino flavor mixing even when the oscillatory factors have averaged. General analyses of neutrino oscillations among n≥3 flavors can readily determine the boxes, which can then be manipulated to yield magnitudes of mixing matrix elements

  4. Invariant box parameterization of neutrino oscillations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weiler, T.J.; Wagner, D.

    1998-01-01

    The model-independent 'box' parameterization of neutrino oscillations is examined. The invariant boxes are the classical amplitudes of the individual oscillating terms. Being observables, the boxes are independent of the choice of parameterization of the mixing matrix. Emphasis is placed on the relations among the box parameters due to mixing matrix unitarity, and on the reduction of the number of boxes to the minimum basis set. Using the box algebra, we show that CP-violation may be inferred from measurements of neutrino flavor mixing even when the oscillatory factors have averaged. General analyses of neutrino oscillations among n≥3 flavors can readily determine the boxes, which can then be manipulated to yield magnitudes of mixing matrix elements. copyright 1998 American Institute of Physics

  5. Information-Theoretic Perspectives on Geophysical Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nearing, Grey

    2016-04-01

    To test any hypothesis about any dynamic system, it is necessary to build a model that places that hypothesis into the context of everything else that we know about the system: initial and boundary conditions and interactions between various governing processes (Hempel and Oppenheim, 1948, Cartwright, 1983). No hypothesis can be tested in isolation, and no hypothesis can be tested without a model (for a geoscience-related discussion see Clark et al., 2011). Science is (currently) fundamentally reductionist in the sense that we seek some small set of governing principles that can explain all phenomena in the universe, and such laws are ontological in the sense that they describe the object under investigation (Davies, 1990 gives several competing perspectives on this claim). However, since we cannot build perfect models of complex systems, any model that does not also contain an epistemological component (i.e., a statement, like a probability distribution, that refers directly to the quality of of the information from the model) is falsified immediately (in the sense of Popper, 2002) given only a small number of observations. Models necessarily contain both ontological and epistemological components, and what this means is that the purpose of any robust scientific method is to measure the amount and quality of information provided by models. I believe that any viable philosophy of science must be reducible to this statement. The first step toward a unified theory of scientific models (and therefore a complete philosophy of science) is a quantitative language that applies to both ontological and epistemological questions. Information theory is one such language: Cox' (1946) theorem (see Van Horn, 2003) tells us that probability theory is the (only) calculus that is consistent with Classical Logic (Jaynes, 2003; chapter 1), and information theory is simply the integration of convex transforms of probability ratios (integration reduces density functions to scalar

  6. Parameterized and resolved Southern Ocean eddy compensation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulsen, Mads B.; Jochum, Markus; Nuterman, Roman

    2018-04-01

    The ability to parameterize Southern Ocean eddy effects in a forced coarse resolution ocean general circulation model is assessed. The transient model response to a suite of different Southern Ocean wind stress forcing perturbations is presented and compared to identical experiments performed with the same model in 0.1° eddy-resolving resolution. With forcing of present-day wind stress magnitude and a thickness diffusivity formulated in terms of the local stratification, it is shown that the Southern Ocean residual meridional overturning circulation in the two models is different in structure and magnitude. It is found that the difference in the upper overturning cell is primarily explained by an overly strong subsurface flow in the parameterized eddy-induced circulation while the difference in the lower cell is mainly ascribed to the mean-flow overturning. With a zonally constant decrease of the zonal wind stress by 50% we show that the absolute decrease in the overturning circulation is insensitive to model resolution, and that the meridional isopycnal slope is relaxed in both models. The agreement between the models is not reproduced by a 50% wind stress increase, where the high resolution overturning decreases by 20%, but increases by 100% in the coarse resolution model. It is demonstrated that this difference is explained by changes in surface buoyancy forcing due to a reduced Antarctic sea ice cover, which strongly modulate the overturning response and ocean stratification. We conclude that the parameterized eddies are able to mimic the transient response to altered wind stress in the high resolution model, but partly misrepresent the unperturbed Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation and associated heat transports.

  7. Dual Youla parameterization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niemann, Hans Henrik

    2003-01-01

    A different aspect of using the parameterisation of all systems stabilised by a given controller, i.e. the dual Youla parameterisation, is considered. The relation between system change and the dual Youla parameter is derived in explicit form. A number of standard uncertain model descriptions...... are considered and the relation with the dual Youla parameter given. Some applications of the dual Youla parameterisation are considered in connection with the design of controllers and model/performance validation....

  8. Phenomenology of convection-parameterization closure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-I. Yano

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Closure is a problem of defining the convective intensity in a given parameterization. In spite of many years of efforts and progress, it is still considered an overall unresolved problem. The present article reviews this problem from phenomenological perspectives. The physical variables that may contribute in defining the convective intensity are listed, and their statistical significances identified by observational data analyses are reviewed. A possibility is discussed for identifying a correct closure hypothesis by performing a linear stability analysis of tropical convectively coupled waves with various different closure hypotheses. Various individual theoretical issues are considered from various different perspectives. The review also emphasizes that the dominant physical factors controlling convection differ between the tropics and extra-tropics, as well as between oceanic and land areas. Both observational as well as theoretical analyses, often focused on the tropics, do not necessarily lead to conclusions consistent with our operational experiences focused on midlatitudes. Though we emphasize the importance of the interplays between these observational, theoretical and operational perspectives, we also face challenges for establishing a solid research framework that is universally applicable. An energy cycle framework is suggested as such a candidate.

  9. Huntington disease: Experimental models and therapeutic perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Serrano Sanchez, Teresa; Blanco Lezcano, Lisette; Garcia Minet, Rocio; Alberti Amador, Esteban; Diaz Armesto, Ivan and others

    2011-01-01

    Huntington's disease (HD) is a degenerative dysfunction of hereditary origin. Up to date there is not, an effective treatment to the disease which having lapsed 15 or 20 years advances inexorably, in a slow form, toward the total inability or death. This paper reviews the clinical and morphological characteristics of Huntington's disease as well as the experimental models more commonly used to study this disease, having as source the articles indexed in Medline data base, published in the last 20 years. Advantages and disadvantages of all experimental models to reproduce the disease as well as the perspectives to therapeutic assay have been also considered. the consent of outline reported about the toxic models, those induced by neurotoxins such as quinolinic acid, appears to be the most appropriate to reproduce the neuropathologic characteristic of the disease, an genetic models contributing with more evidence to the knowledge of the disease etiology. Numerous treatments ameliorate clinical manifestations, but none of them has been able to stop or diminish the affectations derived from neuronal loss. At present time it is possible to reproduce, at least partially, the characteristics of the disease in experimentation animals that allow therapy evaluation in HD. from the treatment view point, the more promissory seems to be transplantation of no neuronal cells, taking into account ethical issues and factibility. On the other hand the new technology of interference RNA emerges as a potential therapeutic tool for treatment in HD, and to respond basic questions on the development of the disease.

  10. Parameterizing convective organization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian Earle Mapes

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Lateral mixing parameters in buoyancy-driven deep convection schemes are among the most sensitive and important unknowns in atmosphere models. Unfortunately, there is not a true optimum value for plume mixing rate, but rather a dilemma or tradeoff: Excessive dilution of updrafts leads to unstable stratification bias in the mean state, while inadequate dilution allows deep convection to occur too easily, causing poor space and time distributions and variability. In this too-small parameter space, compromises are made based on competing metrics of model performance. We attempt to escape this “entrainment dilemma” by making bulk plume parameters (chiefly entrainment rate depend on a new prognostic variable (“organization,” org meant to reflect the rectified effects of subgrid-scale structure in meteorological fields. We test an org scheme in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5 with a new unified shallow-deep convection scheme (UW-ens, a 2-plume version of the University of Washington scheme. Since buoyant ascent involves natural selection, subgrid structure makes convection systematically deeper and stronger than the pure unorganized case: plumes of average (or randomly sampled air rising in the average environment. To reflect this, org is nonnegative, but we leave it dimensionless. A time scale characterizes its behavior (here ∼3 h for a 2o model. Currently its source is rain evaporation, but other sources can be added easily. We also let org be horizontally transported by advection, as a mass-weighted mean over the convecting layer. Linear coefficients link org to a plume ensemble, which it assists via: 1 plume base warmth above the mean temperature 2 plume radius enhancement (reduced mixing, and 3 increased probability of overlap in a multi-plume scheme, where interactions benefit later generations (this part has only been implemented in an offline toy column model. Since rain evaporation is a source for org, it functions as a time

  11. Multi-perspective workflow modeling for online surgical situation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franke, Stefan; Meixensberger, Jürgen; Neumuth, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Surgical workflow management is expected to enable situation-aware adaptation and intelligent systems behavior in an integrated operating room (OR). The overall aim is to unburden the surgeon and OR staff from both manual maintenance and information seeking tasks. A major step toward intelligent systems behavior is a stable classification of the surgical situation from multiple perspectives based on performed low-level tasks. The present work proposes a method for the classification of surgical situations based on multi-perspective workflow modeling. A model network that interconnects different types of surgical process models is described. Various aspects of a surgical situation description were considered: low-level tasks, high-level tasks, patient status, and the use of medical devices. A study with sixty neurosurgical interventions was conducted to evaluate the performance of our approach and its robustness against incomplete workflow recognition input. A correct classification rate of over 90% was measured for high-level tasks and patient status. The device usage models for navigation and neurophysiology classified over 95% of the situations correctly, whereas the ultrasound usage was more difficult to predict. Overall, the classification rate decreased with an increasing level of input distortion. Autonomous adaptation of medical devices and intelligent systems behavior do not currently depend solely on low-level tasks. Instead, they require a more general type of understanding of the surgical condition. The integration of various surgical process models in a network provided a comprehensive representation of the interventions and allowed for the generation of extensive situation descriptions. Multi-perspective surgical workflow modeling and online situation models will be a significant pre-requisite for reliable and intelligent systems behavior. Hence, they will contribute to a cooperative OR environment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. The perspective awareness model - Eliciting multiple perspectives to formulate high quality decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boucher, Laurel

    2013-01-01

    A great deal of attention is given to the importance of communication in environmental remediation and radioactive waste management. However, very little attention is given to eliciting multiple perspectives so as to formulate high quality decisions. Plans that are based on a limited number of perspectives tend to be narrowly focused whereas those that are based on a wide variety of perspectives tend to be comprehensive, higher quality, and more apt to be put into application. In addition, existing methods of dialogue have built-in limitations in that they typically draw from the predominant thinking patterns which focus in some areas but ignore others. This can result in clarity but a lack of comprehensiveness. This paper presents a Perspective Awareness Model which helps groups such as partnering teams, interagency teams, steering committees, and working groups elicit a wide net of perspectives and viewpoints. The paper begins by describing five factors that makes cooperation among such groups challenging. Next, a Perspective Awareness Model that makes it possible to manage these five factors is presented. The two primary components of this model --- the eight 'Thinking Directions' and the 'Shared Documentation' --- are described in detail. Several examples are given to illustrate how the Perspective Awareness Model can be used to elicit multiple perspectives to formulate high quality decisions in the area of environmental remediation and radioactive waste management. (authors)

  13. Elastic orthorhombic anisotropic parameter inversion: An analysis of parameterization

    KAUST Repository

    Oh, Juwon; Alkhalifah, Tariq Ali

    2016-01-01

    The resolution of a multiparameter full-waveform inversion (FWI) is highly influenced by the parameterization used in the inversion algorithm, as well as the data quality and the sensitivity of the data to the elastic parameters because the scattering patterns of the partial derivative wavefields (PDWs) vary with parameterization. For this reason, it is important to identify an optimal parameterization for elastic orthorhombic FWI by analyzing the radiation patterns of the PDWs for many reasonable model parameterizations. We have promoted a parameterization that allows for the separation of the anisotropic properties in the radiation patterns. The central parameter of this parameterization is the horizontal P-wave velocity, with an isotropic scattering potential, influencing the data at all scales and directions. This parameterization decouples the influence of the scattering potential given by the P-wave velocity perturbation fromthe polar changes described by two dimensionless parameter perturbations and from the azimuthal variation given by three additional dimensionless parameters perturbations. In addition, the scattering potentials of the P-wave velocity perturbation are also decoupled from the elastic influences given by one S-wave velocity and two additional dimensionless parameter perturbations. The vertical S-wave velocity is chosen with the best resolution obtained from S-wave reflections and converted waves, little influence on P-waves in conventional surface seismic acquisition. The influence of the density on observed data can be absorbed by one anisotropic parameter that has a similar radiation pattern. The additional seven dimensionless parameters describe the polar and azimuth variations in the P- and S-waves that we may acquire, with some of the parameters having distinct influences on the recorded data on the earth's surface. These characteristics of the new parameterization offer the potential for a multistage inversion from high symmetry

  14. Elastic orthorhombic anisotropic parameter inversion: An analysis of parameterization

    KAUST Repository

    Oh, Juwon

    2016-09-15

    The resolution of a multiparameter full-waveform inversion (FWI) is highly influenced by the parameterization used in the inversion algorithm, as well as the data quality and the sensitivity of the data to the elastic parameters because the scattering patterns of the partial derivative wavefields (PDWs) vary with parameterization. For this reason, it is important to identify an optimal parameterization for elastic orthorhombic FWI by analyzing the radiation patterns of the PDWs for many reasonable model parameterizations. We have promoted a parameterization that allows for the separation of the anisotropic properties in the radiation patterns. The central parameter of this parameterization is the horizontal P-wave velocity, with an isotropic scattering potential, influencing the data at all scales and directions. This parameterization decouples the influence of the scattering potential given by the P-wave velocity perturbation fromthe polar changes described by two dimensionless parameter perturbations and from the azimuthal variation given by three additional dimensionless parameters perturbations. In addition, the scattering potentials of the P-wave velocity perturbation are also decoupled from the elastic influences given by one S-wave velocity and two additional dimensionless parameter perturbations. The vertical S-wave velocity is chosen with the best resolution obtained from S-wave reflections and converted waves, little influence on P-waves in conventional surface seismic acquisition. The influence of the density on observed data can be absorbed by one anisotropic parameter that has a similar radiation pattern. The additional seven dimensionless parameters describe the polar and azimuth variations in the P- and S-waves that we may acquire, with some of the parameters having distinct influences on the recorded data on the earth\\'s surface. These characteristics of the new parameterization offer the potential for a multistage inversion from high symmetry

  15. A subgrid parameterization scheme for precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Turner

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available With increasing computing power, the horizontal resolution of numerical weather prediction (NWP models is improving and today reaches 1 to 5 km. Nevertheless, clouds and precipitation formation are still subgrid scale processes for most cloud types, such as cumulus and stratocumulus. Subgrid scale parameterizations for water vapor condensation have been in use for many years and are based on a prescribed probability density function (PDF of relative humidity spatial variability within the model grid box, thus providing a diagnosis of the cloud fraction. A similar scheme is developed and tested here. It is based on a prescribed PDF of cloud water variability and a threshold value of liquid water content for droplet collection to derive a rain fraction within the model grid. Precipitation of rainwater raises additional concerns relative to the overlap of cloud and rain fractions, however. The scheme is developed following an analysis of data collected during field campaigns in stratocumulus (DYCOMS-II and fair weather cumulus (RICO and tested in a 1-D framework against large eddy simulations of these observed cases. The new parameterization is then implemented in a 3-D NWP model with a horizontal resolution of 2.5 km to simulate real cases of precipitating cloud systems over France.

  16. Improving the representation of river-groundwater interactions in land surface modeling at the regional scale: Observational evidence and parameterization applied in the Community Land Model

    KAUST Repository

    Zampieri, Matteo; Serpetzoglou, Efthymios; Anagnostou, Emmanouil N.; Nikolopoulos, Efthymios I.; Papadopoulos, Anastasios

    2012-01-01

    Groundwater is an important component of the hydrological cycle, included in many land surface models to provide a lower boundary condition for soil moisture, which in turn plays a key role in the land-vegetation-atmosphere interactions

  17. A Coordinated Effort to Improve Parameterization of High-Latitude Cloud and Radiation Processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    J. O. Pinto; A.H. Lynch

    2004-01-01

    The goal of this project is the development and evaluation of improved parameterization of arctic cloud and radiation processes and implementation of the parameterizations into a climate model. Our research focuses specifically on the following issues: (1) continued development and evaluation of cloud microphysical parameterizations, focusing on issues of particular relevance for mixed phase clouds; and (2) evaluation of the mesoscale simulation of arctic cloud system life cycles

  18. Parameterization of mixing by secondary circulation in estuaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basdurak, N. B.; Huguenard, K. D.; Valle-Levinson, A.; Li, M.; Chant, R. J.

    2017-07-01

    Eddy viscosity parameterizations that depend on a gradient Richardson number Ri have been most pertinent to the open ocean. Parameterizations applicable to stratified coastal regions typically require implementation of a numerical model. Two novel parameterizations of the vertical eddy viscosity, based on Ri, are proposed here for coastal waters. One turbulence closure considers temporal changes in stratification and bottom stress and is coined the "regular fit." The alternative approach, named the "lateral fit," incorporates variability of lateral flows that are prevalent in estuaries. The two turbulence parameterization schemes are tested using data from a Self-Contained Autonomous Microstructure Profiler (SCAMP) and an Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) collected in the James River Estuary. The "regular fit" compares favorably to SCAMP-derived vertical eddy viscosity values but only at relatively small values of gradient Ri. On the other hand, the "lateral fit" succeeds at describing the lateral variability of eddy viscosity over a wide range of Ri. The modifications proposed to Ri-dependent eddy viscosity parameterizations allow applicability to stratified coastal regions, particularly in wide estuaries, without requiring implementation of a numerical model.

  19. Parameterization of radiocaesium soil-plant transfer using soil characteristics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Konoplev, A. V.; Drissner, J.; Klemt, E.; Konopleva, I. V.; Zibold, G.

    1996-01-01

    A model of radionuclide soil-plant transfer is proposed to parameterize the transfer factor by soil and soil solution characteristics. The model is tested with experimental data on the aggregated transfer factor T ag and soil parameters for 8 forest sites in Baden-Wuerttemberg. It is shown that the integral soil-plant transfer factor can be parameterized through radiocaesium exchangeability, capacity of selective sorption sites and ion composition of the soil solution or the water extract. A modified technique of (FES) measurement for soils with interlayer collapse is proposed. (author)

  20. Development of a parameterization scheme of mesoscale convective systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cotton, W.R.

    1994-01-01

    The goal of this research is to develop a parameterization scheme of mesoscale convective systems (MCS) including diabatic heating, moisture and momentum transports, cloud formation, and precipitation. The approach is to: Perform explicit cloud-resolving simulation of MCSs; Perform statistical analyses of simulated MCSs to assist in fabricating a parameterization, calibrating coefficients, etc.; Test the parameterization scheme against independent field data measurements and in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models emulating general circulation model (GCM) grid resolution. Thus far we have formulated, calibrated, implemented and tested a deep convective engine against explicit Florida sea breeze convection and in coarse-grid regional simulations of mid-latitude and tropical MCSs. Several explicit simulations of MCSs have been completed, and several other are in progress. Analysis code is being written and run on the explicitly simulated data

  1. Parameterized Analysis of Paging and List Update Algorithms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dorrigiv, Reza; Ehmsen, Martin R.; López-Ortiz, Alejandro

    2015-01-01

    that a larger cache leads to a better performance. We also apply the parameterized analysis framework to list update and show that certain randomized algorithms which are superior to MTF in the classical model are not so in the parameterized case, which matches experimental results....... set model and express the performance of well known algorithms in terms of this parameter. This explicitly introduces parameterized-style analysis to online algorithms. The idea is that rather than normalizing the performance of an online algorithm by an (optimal) offline algorithm, we explicitly...... express the behavior of the algorithm in terms of two more natural parameters: the size of the cache and Denning’s working set measure. This technique creates a performance hierarchy of paging algorithms which better reflects their experimentally observed relative strengths. It also reflects the intuition...

  2. A parameterization of cloud droplet nucleation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghan, S.J.; Chuang, C.; Penner, J.E.

    1993-01-01

    Droplet nucleation is a fundamental cloud process. The number of aerosols activated to form cloud droplets influences not only the number of aerosols scavenged by clouds but also the size of the cloud droplets. Cloud droplet size influences the cloud albedo and the conversion of cloud water to precipitation. Global aerosol models are presently being developed with the intention of coupling with global atmospheric circulation models to evaluate the influence of aerosols and aerosol-cloud interactions on climate. If these and other coupled models are to address issues of aerosol-cloud interactions, the droplet nucleation process must be adequately represented. Here we introduce a droplet nucleation parametrization that offers certain advantages over the popular Twomey (1959) parameterization

  3. A new parameterization for waveform inversion in acoustic orthorhombic media

    KAUST Repository

    Masmoudi, Nabil

    2016-05-26

    Orthorhombic anisotropic model inversion is extra challenging because of the multiple parameter nature of the inversion problem. The high number of parameters required to describe the medium exerts considerable trade-off and additional nonlinearity to a full-waveform inversion (FWI) application. Choosing a suitable set of parameters to describe the model and designing an effective inversion strategy can help in mitigating this problem. Using the Born approximation, which is the central ingredient of the FWI update process, we have derived radiation patterns for the different acoustic orthorhombic parameterizations. Analyzing the angular dependence of scattering (radiation patterns) of the parameters of different parameterizations starting with the often used Thomsen-Tsvankin parameterization, we have assessed the potential trade-off between the parameters and the resolution in describing the data and inverting for the parameters. The analysis led us to introduce new parameters ϵd, δd, and ηd, which have azimuthally dependent radiation patterns, but keep the scattering potential of the transversely isotropic parameters stationary with azimuth (azimuth independent). The novel parameters ϵd, δd, and ηd are dimensionless and represent a measure of deviation between the vertical planes in orthorhombic anisotropy. Therefore, these deviation parameters offer a new parameterization style for an acoustic orthorhombic medium described by six parameters: three vertical transversely isotropic (VTI) parameters, two deviation parameters, and one parameter describing the anisotropy in the horizontal symmetry plane. The main feature of any parameterization based on the deviation parameters, is the azimuthal independency of the modeled data with respect to the VTI parameters, which allowed us to propose practical inversion strategies based on our experience with the VTI parameters. This feature of the new parameterization style holds for even the long-wavelength components of

  4. Droplet Nucleation: Physically-Based Parameterizations and Comparative Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steve Ghan

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available One of the greatest sources of uncertainty in simulations of climate and climate change is the influence of aerosols on the optical properties of clouds. The root of this influence is the droplet nucleation process, which involves the spontaneous growth of aerosol into cloud droplets at cloud edges, during the early stages of cloud formation, and in some cases within the interior of mature clouds. Numerical models of droplet nucleation represent much of the complexity of the process, but at a computational cost that limits their application to simulations of hours or days. Physically-based parameterizations of droplet nucleation are designed to quickly estimate the number nucleated as a function of the primary controlling parameters: the aerosol number size distribution, hygroscopicity and cooling rate. Here we compare and contrast the key assumptions used in developing each of the most popular parameterizations and compare their performances under a variety of conditions. We find that the more complex parameterizations perform well under a wider variety of nucleation conditions, but all parameterizations perform well under the most common conditions. We then discuss the various applications of the parameterizations to cloud-resolving, regional and global models to study aerosol effects on clouds at a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. We compare estimates of anthropogenic aerosol indirect effects using two different parameterizations applied to the same global climate model, and find that the estimates of indirect effects differ by only 10%. We conclude with a summary of the outstanding challenges remaining for further development and application.

  5. Neutrosophic Parameterized Soft Relations and Their Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irfan Deli

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to introduce the concept of relation on neutrosophic parameterized soft set (NP- soft sets theory. We have studied some related properties and also put forward some propositions on neutrosophic parameterized soft relation with proofs and examples. Finally the notions of symmetric, transitive, reflexive, and equivalence neutrosophic parameterized soft set relations have been established in our work. Finally a decision making method on NP-soft sets is presented.

  6. Tuning controllers using the dual Youla parameterization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niemann, Hans Henrik; Stoustrup, Jakob

    2000-01-01

    This paper describes the application of the Youla parameterization of all stabilizing controllers and the dual Youla parameterization of all systems stabilized by a given controller in connection with tuning of controllers. In the uncertain case, it is shown that the use of the Youla parameteriza......This paper describes the application of the Youla parameterization of all stabilizing controllers and the dual Youla parameterization of all systems stabilized by a given controller in connection with tuning of controllers. In the uncertain case, it is shown that the use of the Youla...

  7. Forest Growth and Yield Models Viewed From a Different Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffery C. Goelz

    2002-01-01

    Typically, when different forms of growth and yield models are considered, they are grouped into convenient discrete classes. As a heuristic device, I chose to use a contrasting perspective, that all growth and yield models are diameter distribution models that merely differ in regard to which diameter distribution is employed and how the distribution is projected to...

  8. Projected changes in precipitation intensity and frequency over complex topography: a multi-model perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Andreas; Keller, Denise; Liniger, Mark; Rajczak, Jan; Schär, Christoph; Appenzeller, Christof

    2014-05-01

    Fundamental changes in the hydrological cycle are expected in a future warmer climate. This is of particular relevance for the Alpine region, as a source and reservoir of several major rivers in Europe and being prone to extreme events such as floodings. For this region, climate change assessments based on the ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) project a significant decrease in summer mean precipitation under the A1B emission scenario by the mid-to-end of this century, while winter mean precipitation is expected to slightly rise. From an impact perspective, projected changes in seasonal means, however, are often insufficient to adequately address the multifaceted challenges of climate change adaptation. In this study, we revisit the full matrix of the ENSEMBLES RCM projections regarding changes in frequency and intensity, precipitation-type (convective versus stratiform) and temporal structure (wet/dry spells and transition probabilities) over Switzerland and surroundings. As proxies for raintype changes, we rely on the model parameterized convective and large-scale precipitation components. Part of the analysis involves a Bayesian multi-model combination algorithm to infer changes from the multi-model ensemble. The analysis suggests a summer drying that evolves altitude-specific: over low-land regions it is associated with wet-day frequency decreases of convective and large-scale precipitation, while over elevated regions it is primarily associated with a decline in large-scale precipitation only. As a consequence, almost all the models project an increase in the convective fraction at elevated Alpine altitudes. The decrease in the number of wet days during summer is accompanied by decreases (increases) in multi-day wet (dry) spells. This shift in multi-day episodes also lowers the likelihood of short dry spell occurrence in all of the models. For spring and autumn the combined multi-model projections indicate higher mean precipitation intensity north of the

  9. Parameterization of solar flare dose

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lamarche, A.H.; Poston, J.W.

    1996-01-01

    A critical aspect of missions to the moon or Mars will be the safety and health of the crew. Radiation in space is a hazard for astronauts, especially high-energy radiation following certain types of solar flares. A solar flare event can be very dangerous if astronauts are not adequately shielded because flares can deliver a very high dose in a short period of time. The goal of this research was to parameterize solar flare dose as a function of time to see if it was possible to predict solar flare occurrence, thus providing a warning time. This would allow astronauts to take corrective action and avoid receiving a dose greater than the recommended limit set by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP)

  10. Impact of cloud microphysics and cumulus parameterization on ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2007-10-09

    Oct 9, 2007 ... Bangladesh. Weather Research and Forecast (WRF–ARW version) modelling system with six dif- .... tem intensified rapidly into a land depression over southern part of ... Impact of cloud microphysics and cumulus parameterization on heavy rainfall. 261 .... tent and temperature and is represented as a sum.

  11. Distance parameterization for efficient seismic history matching with the ensemble Kalman Filter

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leeuwenburgh, O.; Arts, R.

    2012-01-01

    The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), in combination with travel-time parameterization, provides a robust and flexible method for quantitative multi-model history matching to time-lapse seismic data. A disadvantage of the parameterization in terms of travel-times is that it requires simulation of

  12. On the Dependence of Cloud Feedbacks on Physical Parameterizations in WRF Aquaplanet Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cesana, Grégory; Suselj, Kay; Brient, Florent

    2017-10-01

    We investigate the effects of physical parameterizations on cloud feedback uncertainty in response to climate change. For this purpose, we construct an ensemble of eight aquaplanet simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. In each WRF-derived simulation, we replace only one parameterization at a time while all other parameters remain identical. By doing so, we aim to (i) reproduce cloud feedback uncertainty from state-of-the-art climate models and (ii) understand how parametrizations impact cloud feedbacks. Our results demonstrate that this ensemble of WRF simulations, which differ only in physical parameterizations, replicates the range of cloud feedback uncertainty found in state-of-the-art climate models. We show that microphysics and convective parameterizations govern the magnitude and sign of cloud feedbacks, mostly due to tropical low-level clouds in subsidence regimes. Finally, this study highlights the advantages of using WRF to analyze cloud feedback mechanisms owing to its plug-and-play parameterization capability.

  13. Observations of leaf stomatal conductance at the canopy scale: an atmospheric modeling perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avissar, R.

    1993-01-01

    Plant stomata play a key role in the redistribution of energy received on vegetated land into sensible and latent heat. As a result, they have a considerable impact on the atmospheric planetary boundary layer, the hydrologic cycle, the climate, and the weather. Current parameterizations of the stomatal mechanism in state-of-the-art atmospheric models are based on empirical relations that are established at the leaf scale between stomatal conductance and environmental conditions. In order to evaluate these parameterizations, an experiment was carried out on a potato field in New Jersey during the summer of 1989. Stomatal conductances were measured within a small homogeneous area in the middle of the potato field and under a relatively broad range of atmospheric conditions. A large variability of stomatal conductances was observed. This variability, which was associated with the variability of micro-environmental and physiological conditions that is found even in a homogeneous canopy, cannot be simulated explicitly on the scale of a single agricultural field and,a fortiori, on the scale of atmospheric models. Furthermore, this variability could not be related to the environmental conditions measured at a height of 2 m above the plant canopy simultaneously with the conductances, reinforcing the concept of scale decoupling suggested by Jarvis and McNaughton (1986) and McNaughton and Jarvis (1991). Thus, for atmospheric modeling purposes, a parameterization of stomatal conductance at the canopy scale using external environmental forcing conditions seems more appropriate than a parameterization based on leaf-scale stomatal conductance, as currently adopted in state-of-the-art atmospheric models. The measured variability was characterized by a lognormal probability density function (pdf) that remained relatively stable during the entire measuring period. These observations support conclusions by McNaughton and Jarvis (1991) that, unlike current parameterizations, a

  14. Observations of leaf stomatal conductance at the canopy scale: an atmospheric modeling perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avissar, R.

    1993-01-01

    Plant stomata play a key role in the redistribution of energy received on vegetated land into sensible and latent heat. As a result, they have a considerable impact on the atmospheric planetary boundary layer, the hydrologic cycle, the climate, and the weather. Current parameterizations of the stomatal mechanism in state-of-the-art atmospheric models are based on empirical relations that are established at the leaf scale between stomatal conductance and environmental conditions. In order to evaluate these parameterizations, an experiment was carried out on a potato field in New Jersey during the summer of 1989. Stomatal conductances were measured within a small homogeneous area in the middle of the potato field and under a relatively broad range of atmospheric conditions. A large variability of stomatal conductances was observed. This variability, which was associated with the variability of micro-environmental and physiological conditions that is found even in a homogeneous canopy, cannot be simulated explicitly on the scale of a single agricultural field and, a fortiori, on the scale of atmospheric models. Furthermore, this variability could not be related to the environmental conditions measured at a height of 2 m above the plant canopy simultaneously with the conductances, reinforcing the concept of scale decoupling suggested by Jarvis and McNaughton (1986) and McNaughton and Jarvis (1991). Thus, for atmospheric modeling purposes, a parameterization of stomatal conductance at the canopy scale using external environmental forcing conditions seems more appropriate than a parameterization based on leaf-scale stomatal conductance, as currently adopted in state-of-the-art atmospheric models. The measured variability was characterized by a lognormal probability density function (pdf) that remained relatively stable during the entire measuring period. These observations support conclusions by McNaughton and Jarvis (1991) that, unlike current parameterizations, a

  15. CSR Model Implementation from School Stakeholder Perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrmann, Suzannah

    2006-01-01

    Despite comprehensive school reform (CSR) model developers' best intentions to make school stakeholders adhere strictly to the implementation of model components, school stakeholders implementing CSR models inevitably make adaptations to the CSR model. Adaptations are made to CSR models because school stakeholders internalize CSR model practices…

  16. The financial accounting model from a system dynamics' perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Melse, E.

    2006-01-01

    This paper explores the foundation of the financial accounting model. We examine the properties of the accounting equation as the principal algorithm for the design and the development of a System Dynamics model. Key to the perspective is the foundational requirement that resolves the temporal

  17. Reliable control using the primary and dual Youla parameterizations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niemann, Hans Henrik; Stoustrup, J.

    2002-01-01

    Different aspects of modeling faults in dynamic systems are considered in connection with reliable control (RC). The fault models include models with additive faults, multiplicative faults and structural changes in the models due to faults in the systems. These descriptions are considered...... in connection with reliable control and feedback control with fault rejection. The main emphasis is on fault modeling. A number of fault diagnosis problems, reliable control problems, and feedback control with fault rejection problems are formulated/considered, again, mainly from a fault modeling point of view....... Reliability is introduced by means of the (primary) Youla parameterization of all stabilizing controllers, where an additional loop is closed around a diagnostic signal. In order to quantify the level of reliability, the dual Youla parameterization is introduced which can be used to analyze how large faults...

  18. The Financial Accounting Model from a System Dynamics' Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Melse, Eric

    2006-01-01

    This paper explores the foundation of the financial accounting model. We examine the properties of the accounting equation as the principal algorithm for the design and the development of a System Dynamics model. Key to the perspective is the foundational requirement that resolves the temporal conflict that resides in a stock and flow model. Through formal analysis the accounting equation is redefined as a cybernetic model by expressing the temporal and dynamic properties of its terms. Articu...

  19. Business model reconfiguration in green construction: A theoretical perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Abuzeinab, Amal; Arif, Mohammed

    2013-01-01

    PhD study Business models describe the business logic of a particular company and green business model is when a company changes part(s) of its business model and thereby both captures economic value and reduces the ecological footprint in a life-cycle perspective. In this paper, business model literature is reviewed with the intention of promoting learning to understand the economic complexity of environmental sustainability in the construction context. Although the green construction lit...

  20. Climate impacts of parameterized Nordic Sea overflows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Large, William G.; Briegleb, Bruce P.

    2010-11-01

    A new overflow parameterization (OFP) of density-driven flows through ocean ridges via narrow, unresolved channels has been developed and implemented in the ocean component of the Community Climate System Model version 4. It represents exchanges from the Nordic Seas and the Antarctic shelves, associated entrainment, and subsequent injection of overflow product waters into the abyssal basins. We investigate the effects of the parameterized Denmark Strait (DS) and Faroe Bank Channel (FBC) overflows on the ocean circulation, showing their impacts on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and the North Atlantic climate. The OFP is based on the Marginal Sea Boundary Condition scheme of Price and Yang (1998), but there are significant differences that are described in detail. Two uncoupled (ocean-only) and two fully coupled simulations are analyzed. Each pair consists of one case with the OFP and a control case without this parameterization. In both uncoupled and coupled experiments, the parameterized DS and FBC source volume transports are within the range of observed estimates. The entrainment volume transports remain lower than observational estimates, leading to lower than observed product volume transports. Due to low entrainment, the product and source water properties are too similar. The DS and FBC overflow temperature and salinity properties are in better agreement with observations in the uncoupled case than in the coupled simulation, likely reflecting surface flux differences. The most significant impact of the OFP is the improved North Atlantic Deep Water penetration depth, leading to a much better comparison with the observational data and significantly reducing the chronic, shallow penetration depth bias in level coordinate models. This improvement is due to the deeper penetration of the southward flowing Deep Western Boundary Current. In comparison with control experiments without the OFP, the abyssal ventilation rates increase in the North

  1. Parameterization of planetary wave breaking in the middle atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Rolando R.

    1991-01-01

    A parameterization of planetary wave breaking in the middle atmosphere has been developed and tested in a numerical model which includes governing equations for a single wave and the zonal-mean state. The parameterization is based on the assumption that wave breaking represents a steady-state equilibrium between the flux of wave activity and its dissipation by nonlinear processes, and that the latter can be represented as linear damping of the primary wave. With this and the additional assumption that the effect of breaking is to prevent further amplitude growth, the required dissipation rate is readily obtained from the steady-state equation for wave activity; diffusivity coefficients then follow from the dissipation rate. The assumptions made in the derivation are equivalent to those commonly used in parameterizations for gravity wave breaking, but the formulation in terms of wave activity helps highlight the central role of the wave group velocity in determining the dissipation rate. Comparison of model results with nonlinear calculations of wave breaking and with diagnostic determinations of stratospheric diffusion coefficients reveals remarkably good agreement, and suggests that the parameterization could be useful for simulating inexpensively, but realistically, the effects of planetary wave transport.

  2. The CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT): Where Climate Simulation Meets Weather Prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phillips, T J; Potter, G L; Williamson, D L; Cederwall, R T; Boyle, J S; Fiorino, M; Hnilo, J J; Olson, J G; Xie, S; Yio, J J

    2003-11-21

    To significantly improve the simulation of climate by general circulation models (GCMs), systematic errors in representations of relevant processes must first be identified, and then reduced. This endeavor demands, in particular, that the GCM parameterizations of unresolved processes should be tested over a wide range of time scales, not just in climate simulations. Thus, a numerical weather prediction (NWP) methodology for evaluating model parameterizations and gaining insights into their behavior may prove useful, provied that suitable adaptations are made for implementation in climate GCMs. This method entails the generation of short-range weather forecasts by realistically initialized climate GCM, and the application of six-hourly NWP analyses and observations of parameterized variables to evaluate these forecasts. The behavior of the parameterizations in such a weather-forecasting framework can provide insights on how these schemes might be improved, and modified parameterizations then can be similarly tested. In order to further this method for evaluating and analyzing parameterizations in climate GCMs, the USDOE is funding a joint venture of its Climate Change Prediction Program (CCPP) and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program: the CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT). This article elaborates the scientific rationale for CAPT, discusses technical aspects of its methodology, and presents examples of its implementation in a representative climate GCM. Numerical weather prediction methods show promise for improving parameterizations in climate GCMs.

  3. Quantifying the role of fire in the Earth system – Part 1: Improved global fire modeling in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1)

    OpenAIRE

    F. Li; S. Levis; D. S. Ward

    2013-01-01

    Modeling fire as an integral part of an Earth system model (ESM) is vital for quantifying and understanding fire–climate–vegetation interactions on a global scale and from an Earth system perspective. In this study, we introduce to the Community Earth System Model (CESM) the new global fire parameterization proposed by Li et al. (2012a, b), now with a more realistic representation of the anthropogenic impacts on fires, with a parameterization of peat fires, and with other minor modifications....

  4. Modelling in life insurance a management perspective

    CERN Document Server

    Norberg, Ragnar; Planchet, Frédéric

    2016-01-01

    Focussing on life insurance and pensions, this book addresses various aspects of modelling in modern insurance: insurance liabilities; asset-liability management; securitization, hedging, and investment strategies. With contributions from internationally renowned academics in actuarial science, finance, and management science and key people in major life insurance and reinsurance companies, there is expert coverage of a wide range of topics, for example: models in life insurance and their roles in decision making; an account of the contemporary history of insurance and life insurance mathematics; choice, calibration, and evaluation of models; documentation and quality checks of data; new insurance regulations and accounting rules; cash flow projection models; economic scenario generators; model uncertainty and model risk; model-based decision-making at line management level; models and behaviour of stakeholders. With author profiles ranging from highly specialized model builders to decision makers at chief ex...

  5. The Perspectives of New Franchising Models in Russia

    OpenAIRE

    Lyudmila A. Mikhailova

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: the main goal of the article is to define the development perspectives of the new franchising models in Russia (specifically quasifranchising, freedom franchising and branchising). To achieve this the following tusks should be completed: to define the specific characteristics of the following models as well as the factors which influenced their occurrence; to question Russian franchisors in order to understand their desire to develop their business under the new franchising models; t...

  6. Proposing a Capability Perspective on Digital Business Models

    OpenAIRE

    Bärenfänger, Rieke; Otto, Boris

    2015-01-01

    Business models comprehensively describe the functioning of businesses in contemporary economic, technological, and societal environments. This paper focuses on the characteristics of digital business models from the perspective of capability research and develops a capability model for digital businesses. Following the design science research (DSR) methodology, multiple evaluation and design iterations were performed. Contributions to the design process came from IS/IT practice and the resea...

  7. CLOUD PARAMETERIZATIONS, CLOUD PHYSICS, AND THEIR CONNECTIONS: AN OVERVIEW

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LIU, Y.; DAUM, P.H.; CHAI, S.K.; LIU, F.

    2002-01-01

    This paper consists of three parts. The first part is concerned with the parameterization of cloud microphysics in climate models. We demonstrate the crucial importance of spectral dispersion of the cloud droplet size distribution in determining radiative properties of clouds (e.g., effective radius), and underline the necessity of specifying spectral dispersion in the parameterization of cloud microphysics. It is argued that the inclusion of spectral dispersion makes the issue of cloud parameterization essentially equivalent to that of the droplet size distribution function, bringing cloud parameterization to the forefront of cloud physics. The second part is concerned with theoretical investigations into the spectral shape of droplet size distributions in cloud physics. After briefly reviewing the mainstream theories (including entrainment and mixing theories, and stochastic theories), we discuss their deficiencies and the need for a paradigm shift from reductionist approaches to systems approaches. A systems theory that has recently been formulated by utilizing ideas from statistical physics and information theory is discussed, along with the major results derived from it. It is shown that the systems formalism not only easily explains many puzzles that have been frustrating the mainstream theories, but also reveals such new phenomena as scale-dependence of cloud droplet size distributions. The third part is concerned with the potential applications of the systems theory to the specification of spectral dispersion in terms of predictable variables and scale-dependence under different fluctuating environments

  8. Elastic FWI for VTI media: A synthetic parameterization study

    KAUST Repository

    Kamath, Nishant

    2016-09-06

    A major challenge for multiparameter full-waveform inversion (FWI) is the inherent trade-offs (or cross-talk) between model parameters. Here, we perform FWI of multicomponent data generated for a synthetic VTI (transversely isotropic with a vertical symmetry axis) model based on a geologic section of the Valhall field. A horizontal displacement source, which excites intensive shear waves in the conventional offset range, helps provide more accurate updates to the SV-wave vertical velocity. We test three model parameterizations, which exhibit different radiation patterns and, therefore, create different parameter trade-offs. The results show that the choice of parameterization for FWI depends on the availability of long-offset data, the quality of the initial model for the anisotropy coefficients, and the parameter that needs to be resolved with the highest accuracy.

  9. Configurable multi-perspective business process models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    La Rosa, M.; Dumas, M.; Hofstede, ter A.H.M.; Mendling, J.

    2011-01-01

    A configurable process model provides a consolidated view of a family of business processes. It promotes the reuse of proven practices by providing analysts with a generic modeling artifact from which to derive individual process models. Unfortunately, the scope of existing notations for

  10. Hydrological model parameterization using NDVI values to account for the effects of land-cover change on the rainfall-runoff response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Classic rainfall-runoff models usually use historical data to estimate model parameters and mean values of parameters are considered for predictions. However, due to climate changes and human effects, the parameters of model change temporally. To overcome this problem, Normalized Difference Vegetati...

  11. Winkler's single-parameter subgrade model from the perspective of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... tensor are taken into consideration, whereas the shear stresses are intentionally dropped with the purpose of providing a useful perspective, with which Winkler's model and its associated coefficient of subgrade reaction can be viewed. The formulation takes into account the variation of the elasticity modulus with depth.

  12. Network Modeling and Simulation A Practical Perspective

    CERN Document Server

    Guizani, Mohsen; Khan, Bilal

    2010-01-01

    Network Modeling and Simulation is a practical guide to using modeling and simulation to solve real-life problems. The authors give a comprehensive exposition of the core concepts in modeling and simulation, and then systematically address the many practical considerations faced by developers in modeling complex large-scale systems. The authors provide examples from computer and telecommunication networks and use these to illustrate the process of mapping generic simulation concepts to domain-specific problems in different industries and disciplines. Key features: Provides the tools and strate

  13. Health care management modelling: a process perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vissers, J.M.H.

    1998-01-01

    Modelling-based health care management ought to become just as popular as evidence based medicine. Making managerial decisions based on evidence by modelling efforts is certainly a step forward. Examples can be given of many successful applications in different areas of decision making: disease

  14. Parameterization of the InVEST Crop Pollination Model to spatially predict abundance of wild blueberry (Vaccinium angustifolium Aiton) native bee pollinators in Maine, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groff, Shannon C.; Loftin, Cynthia S.; Drummond, Frank; Bushmann, Sara; McGill, Brian J.

    2016-01-01

    Non-native honeybees historically have been managed for crop pollination, however, recent population declines draw attention to pollination services provided by native bees. We applied the InVEST Crop Pollination model, developed to predict native bee abundance from habitat resources, in Maine's wild blueberry crop landscape. We evaluated model performance with parameters informed by four approaches: 1) expert opinion; 2) sensitivity analysis; 3) sensitivity analysis informed model optimization; and, 4) simulated annealing (uninformed) model optimization. Uninformed optimization improved model performance by 29% compared to expert opinion-informed model, while sensitivity-analysis informed optimization improved model performance by 54%. This suggests that expert opinion may not result in the best parameter values for the InVEST model. The proportion of deciduous/mixed forest within 2000 m of a blueberry field also reliably predicted native bee abundance in blueberry fields, however, the InVEST model provides an efficient tool to estimate bee abundance beyond the field perimeter.

  15. Customer perspectives on district heating price models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerstin Sernhed

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In Sweden there has been a move towards more cost reflective price models for district heating in order to reduce economic risks that comes with variable heat demand and high shares of fixed assets. The keywords in the new price models are higher shares of fixed cost, seasonal energy prices and charging for capacity. Also components that are meant to serve as incentives to affect behaviour are introduced, for example peak load components and flow components. In this study customer responses to these more complex price models have been investigated through focus group interviews and through interviews with companies that have changed their price models. The results show that several important customer requirements are suffering with the new price models. The most important ones are when energy savings do not provide financial savings, when costs are hard to predict and are perceived to be out of control.

  16. Parameterization and measurements of helical magnetic fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, W.; Okamura, M.

    1997-01-01

    Magnetic fields with helical symmetry can be parameterized using multipole coefficients (a n , b n ). We present a parameterization that gives the familiar multipole coefficients (a n , b n ) for straight magnets when the helical wavelength tends to infinity. To measure helical fields all methods used for straight magnets can be employed. We show how to convert the results of those measurements to obtain the desired helical multipole coefficients (a n , b n )

  17. Menangkal Serangan SQL Injection Dengan Parameterized Query

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yulianingsih Yulianingsih

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Semakin meningkat pertumbuhan layanan informasi maka semakin tinggi pula tingkat kerentanan keamanan dari suatu sumber informasi. Melalui tulisan ini disajikan penelitian yang dilakukan secara eksperimen yang membahas tentang kejahatan penyerangan database secara SQL Injection. Penyerangan dilakukan melalui halaman autentikasi dikarenakan halaman ini merupakan pintu pertama akses yang seharusnya memiliki pertahanan yang cukup. Kemudian dilakukan eksperimen terhadap metode Parameterized Query untuk mendapatkan solusi terhadap permasalahan tersebut.   Kata kunci— Layanan Informasi, Serangan, eksperimen, SQL Injection, Parameterized Query.

  18. Global parameterization and validation of a two-leaf light use efficiency model for predicting gross primary production across FLUXNET sites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Yanlian; Wu, Xiaocui; Ju, Weimin

    2015-01-01

    Light use efficiency (LUE) models are widely used to simulate gross primary production (GPP). However, the treatment of the plant canopy as a big leaf by these models can introduce large uncertainties in simulated GPP. Recently, a two-leaf light use efficiency (TL-LUE) model was developed...... to simulate GPP separately for sunlit and shaded leaves and has been shown to outperform the big-leaf MOD17 model at six FLUX sites in China. In this study we investigated the performance of the TL-LUE model for a wider range of biomes. For this we optimized the parameters and tested the TL-LUE model using...... data from 98 FLUXNET sites which are distributed across the globe. The results showed that the TL-LUE model performed in general better than the MOD17 model in simulating 8 day GPP. Optimized maximum light use efficiency of shaded leaves (epsilon(msh)) was 2.63 to 4.59 times that of sunlit leaves...

  19. Parameterization of the 3-PG model for Pinus elliottii stands using alternative methods to estimate fertility rating, biomass partitioning and canopy closure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlos A. Gonzalez-Benecke; Eric J. Jokela; Wendell P. Cropper; Rosvel Bracho; Daniel J. Leduc

    2014-01-01

    The forest simulation model, 3-PG, has been widely applied as a useful tool for predicting growth of forest species in many countries. The model has the capability to estimate the effects of management, climate and site characteristics on many stand attributes using easily available data. Currently, there is an increasing interest in estimating biomass and assessing...

  20. A new 2D climate model with chemistry and self consistent eddy-parameterization. The impact of airplane NO{sub x} on the chemistry of the atmosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gepraegs, R; Schmitz, G; Peters, D [Institut fuer Atmosphaerenphysik, Kuehlungsborn (Germany)

    1998-12-31

    A 2D version of the ECHAM T21 climate model has been developed. The new model includes an efficient spectral transport scheme with implicit diffusion. Furthermore, photodissociation and chemistry of the NCAR 2D model have been incorporated. A self consistent parametrization scheme is used for eddy heat- and momentum flux in the troposphere. It is based on the heat flux parametrization of Branscome and mixing-length formulation for quasi-geostrophic vorticity. Above 150 hPa the mixing-coefficient K{sub yy} is prescribed. Some of the model results are discussed, concerning especially the impact of aircraft NO{sub x} emission on the model chemistry. (author) 6 refs.

  1. A new 2D climate model with chemistry and self consistent eddy-parameterization. The impact of airplane NO{sub x} on the chemistry of the atmosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gepraegs, R.; Schmitz, G.; Peters, D. [Institut fuer Atmosphaerenphysik, Kuehlungsborn (Germany)

    1997-12-31

    A 2D version of the ECHAM T21 climate model has been developed. The new model includes an efficient spectral transport scheme with implicit diffusion. Furthermore, photodissociation and chemistry of the NCAR 2D model have been incorporated. A self consistent parametrization scheme is used for eddy heat- and momentum flux in the troposphere. It is based on the heat flux parametrization of Branscome and mixing-length formulation for quasi-geostrophic vorticity. Above 150 hPa the mixing-coefficient K{sub yy} is prescribed. Some of the model results are discussed, concerning especially the impact of aircraft NO{sub x} emission on the model chemistry. (author) 6 refs.

  2. The investor perspective on business models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Christian

    2014-01-01

    Disclosure of information on strategies, business models, critical success factors, risk factors and value drivers in general has gained importance in recent years. Both policy makers and academics have argued that the demand for external communication of new types of value drivers is rising...... as companies increasingly base their competitive strengths and thus the value of the company on know-how, patents, skilled employees and other intangibles. In parallel with the focus on disclosure of value drivers, the concept of business models has gained popularity. However, business models in terms of “ways...

  3. Value uncaptured perspective for sustainable business model innovation

    OpenAIRE

    Yang, M; Evans, S; Vladimirova, D; Rana, P

    2016-01-01

    Sustainability has become one of the key factors for long-term business success. Recent research and practice show that business model innovation is a promising approach for improving sustainability in manufacturing firms. To date business models have been examined mostly from the perspectives of value proposition, value capture, value creation and delivery. There is a need for a more comprehensive understanding of value in order to promote sustainability. This paper proposes value uncaptured...

  4. Are Universities Role Models for Communities? A Gender Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Felicia Cornelia MACARIE; Octavian MOLDOVAN

    2012-01-01

    The present paper explores the degree in which universities could/should serve as role models for communities from the perspective of gender integration. Although the theoretical/ moral answer would be affirmative (universities should be in such a position that would allow local communities to regard them as role models of gender integration), the primary empirical analysis leads to another conclusion. A brief theoretical review (that connects gender discrimination, sustainable development, u...

  5. Perspective in site-suitability modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chartier, M.

    1989-01-01

    The Steering Committee for Nuclear Energy of the OECD-Nuclear Energy Agency decided in April 1981 to set up a Co-ordinated Research and Environmental Surveillance Programme relevant to sea disposal of radioactive waste (CRESP) with the objective of reinforcing the scientific basis of future assessments of the continued suitability of the North-East Atlantic site to be made under the NEA Multilateral Consultation and Surveillance Mechanism. A major component of the initial CRESP plan was the development of a site-specific model to predict radionuclide transfer rates and patterns in the marine environment. A new general approach to the design of such a site-specific model is discussed.Although this approach originates partly from methodologies presented in GESAMP partly from an approach put forward within the NEA Seabed Working Group/Geochemical and Physical Oceanography Task Group and partly from methods previously agreed by the CRESP Modelling Task Group, the modelling philosophy developed in the text expressed the personal viewpoint of the author. This text aims to state the present methods of modelling the marine transfer of radionuclides and to anticipate modelling strategies which may be adopted in the future (in France for example), but it does not necessarily meet present NEA viewpoints and the philosophy of other CRESP participating countries

  6. Parameterizing Coefficients of a POD-Based Dynamical System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalb, Virginia L.

    2010-01-01

    A method of parameterizing the coefficients of a dynamical system based of a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) representing the flow dynamics of a viscous fluid has been introduced. (A brief description of POD is presented in the immediately preceding article.) The present parameterization method is intended to enable construction of the dynamical system to accurately represent the temporal evolution of the flow dynamics over a range of Reynolds numbers. The need for this or a similar method arises as follows: A procedure that includes direct numerical simulation followed by POD, followed by Galerkin projection to a dynamical system has been proven to enable representation of flow dynamics by a low-dimensional model at the Reynolds number of the simulation. However, a more difficult task is to obtain models that are valid over a range of Reynolds numbers. Extrapolation of low-dimensional models by use of straightforward Reynolds-number-based parameter continuation has proven to be inadequate for successful prediction of flows. A key part of the problem of constructing a dynamical system to accurately represent the temporal evolution of the flow dynamics over a range of Reynolds numbers is the problem of understanding and providing for the variation of the coefficients of the dynamical system with the Reynolds number. Prior methods do not enable capture of temporal dynamics over ranges of Reynolds numbers in low-dimensional models, and are not even satisfactory when large numbers of modes are used. The basic idea of the present method is to solve the problem through a suitable parameterization of the coefficients of the dynamical system. The parameterization computations involve utilization of the transfer of kinetic energy between modes as a function of Reynolds number. The thus-parameterized dynamical system accurately predicts the flow dynamics and is applicable to a range of flow problems in the dynamical regime around the Hopf bifurcation. Parameter

  7. Parameterizing Size Distribution in Ice Clouds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeSlover, Daniel; Mitchell, David L.

    2009-09-25

    PARAMETERIZING SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS IN ICE CLOUDS David L. Mitchell and Daniel H. DeSlover ABSTRACT An outstanding problem that contributes considerable uncertainty to Global Climate Model (GCM) predictions of future climate is the characterization of ice particle sizes in cirrus clouds. Recent parameterizations of ice cloud effective diameter differ by a factor of three, which, for overcast conditions, often translate to changes in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) of 55 W m-2 or more. Much of this uncertainty in cirrus particle sizes is related to the problem of ice particle shattering during in situ sampling of the ice particle size distribution (PSD). Ice particles often shatter into many smaller ice fragments upon collision with the rim of the probe inlet tube. These small ice artifacts are counted as real ice crystals, resulting in anomalously high concentrations of small ice crystals (D < 100 µm) and underestimates of the mean and effective size of the PSD. Half of the cirrus cloud optical depth calculated from these in situ measurements can be due to this shattering phenomenon. Another challenge is the determination of ice and liquid water amounts in mixed phase clouds. Mixed phase clouds in the Arctic contain mostly liquid water, and the presence of ice is important for determining their lifecycle. Colder high clouds between -20 and -36 oC may also be mixed phase but in this case their condensate is mostly ice with low levels of liquid water. Rather than affecting their lifecycle, the presence of liquid dramatically affects the cloud optical properties, which affects cloud-climate feedback processes in GCMs. This project has made advancements in solving both of these problems. Regarding the first problem, PSD in ice clouds are uncertain due to the inability to reliably measure the concentrations of the smallest crystals (D < 100 µm), known as the “small mode”. Rather than using in situ probe measurements aboard aircraft, we employed a treatment of ice

  8. Global parameterization and validation of a two-leaf light use efficiency model for predicting gross primary production across FLUXNET sites

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Zhou, Y.; Wu, X.; Weiming, J.; Chen, J.; Wang, S.; Wang, H.; Wenping, Y.; Black, T. A.; Jassal, R.; Ibrom, A.; Han, S.; Yan, J.; Margolis, H.; Roupsard, O.; Li, Y.; Zhao, F.; Kiely, G.; Starr, G.; Pavelka, Marian; Montagnani, L.; Wohlfahrt, G.; D'Odorico, P.; Cook, D.; Altaf Arain, M.; Bonal, D.; Beringer, J.; Blanken, P. D.; Loubet, B.; Leclerc, M. Y.; Matteucci, G.; Nagy, Z.; Olejnik, Janusz; U., K. T. P.; Varlagin, A.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 36, č. 7 (2016), s. 2743-2760 ISSN 2169-8953 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : global parametrization * predicting model * FlUXNET Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.395, year: 2016

  9. COMMUNICATION STRATEGY ABOUT BUSINESS MODELS: STAKEHOLDERS PERSPECTIVE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bojoagă Alexandru

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Organizations inform stakeholders about their current and future activities, processes, created value, strategic intentions, and other information that may influence the established relationships. Organizations choose to communicate with stakeholders by different means and in varied ways. The annual report represents a way of communicating between companies and their stakeholders, and it is offering comprehensive information about how companies operates and creates value. The business model is an emerging concept in management literature and practice. The concept describes the logic by which a organization creates, maintains and delivers value for its stakeholders. Through annual reports organisations can communicate to stakeholders information about their business models.We investigated how information about business models is explicitly communicated through annual reports, and how this information is reffering to stakeholders. Our paper aims to reveal which stakeholders are more often mentioned when organizations are communicating about business models through annual reports. This approach shows the attention degree given by organizations to stakeholders. We perceived this from a strategic point of view, as a strategic signal. Thus, we considered if the stakeholder is mentioned more frequent in the communicated message it has a greater role in communication strategy about business model. We conducted an exploratory research and have realized a content analysis.The analysed data consist in over a thousand annual reports from 96 organizations. We analysed the informations transmitted by organizations through annual reports. The annual reports were for a time period of 12 years. Most of the selected companies are multi-business, and are operating in different industries. The results show the stakeholder’s hierarchy based on how often they were mentioned in the communicated messages about business models through annual reports. Based on our

  10. SLS Model Based Design: A Navigation Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, T. Emerson; Anzalone, Evan; Park, Thomas; Geohagan, Kevin

    2018-01-01

    The SLS Program has implemented a Model-based Design (MBD) and Model-based Requirements approach for managing component design information and system requirements. This approach differs from previous large-scale design efforts at Marshall Space Flight Center where design documentation alone conveyed information required for vehicle design and analysis and where extensive requirements sets were used to scope and constrain the design. The SLS Navigation Team is responsible for the Program-controlled Design Math Models (DMMs) which describe and represent the performance of the Inertial Navigation System (INS) and the Rate Gyro Assemblies (RGAs) used by Guidance, Navigation, and Controls (GN&C). The SLS Navigation Team is also responsible for navigation algorithms. The navigation algorithms are delivered for implementation on the flight hardware as a DMM. For the SLS Block 1B design, the additional GPS Receiver hardware model is managed as a DMM at the vehicle design level. This paper describes the models, and discusses the processes and methods used to engineer, design, and coordinate engineering trades and performance assessments using SLS practices as applied to the GN&C system, with a particular focus on the navigation components.

  11. A modeling perspective on cloud radiative forcing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potter, G.L.; Corsetti, L.; Slingo, J.M.

    1993-02-01

    Radiation fields from a perpetual July integration of a T106 version of the ECM-WF operational model are used to identify the most appropriate way to diagnose cloud radiative forcing in a general circulation model, for the purposes of intercomparison between models. Differences between the Methods I and II of Cess and Potter (1987) and a variant method are addressed. Method I is shown to be the least robust of all methods, due to the potential uncertainties related to persistent cloudiness, length of the sampling period and biases in retrieved clear-sky quantities due to insufficient sampling of the diurnal cycle. Method II is proposed as an unambiguous way to produce consistent radiative diagnostics for intercomparing model results. The impact of the three methods on the derived sensitivities and cloud feedbacks following an imposed change in sea surface temperature is discussed. The sensitivity of the results to horizontal resolution is considered by using the diagnostics from parallel integrations with T21 version of the model

  12. Country brand equity model: Sustainability perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teodorović Milivoj

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a model of country brand equity that incorporates the issue of sustainability in determining destination brand equity. In particular, the model includes elements of sustainability as its core dimensions and promotes the concept of the country sustainability promise that transforms destination resources into the positive perception and experience. The theoretical model is empirically tested using global secondary data confirming that country image is the most important element followed by sustainability and loyalty. Also, the analysis suggests the existence of the higher order construct confirming the country brand equity concept. Based on the research findings, the article offers some implications to the destination managers by suggesting the direction for further development and strategy implementation.

  13. submitter Data-driven RBE parameterization for helium ion beams

    CERN Document Server

    Mairani, A; Dokic, I; Valle, S M; Tessonnier, T; Galm, R; Ciocca, M; Parodi, K; Ferrari, A; Jäkel, O; Haberer, T; Pedroni, P; Böhlen, T T

    2016-01-01

    Helium ion beams are expected to be available again in the near future for clinical use. A suitable formalism to obtain relative biological effectiveness (RBE) values for treatment planning (TP) studies is needed. In this work we developed a data-driven RBE parameterization based on published in vitro experimental values. The RBE parameterization has been developed within the framework of the linear-quadratic (LQ) model as a function of the helium linear energy transfer (LET), dose and the tissue specific parameter ${{(\\alpha /\\beta )}_{\\text{ph}}}$ of the LQ model for the reference radiation. Analytic expressions are provided, derived from the collected database, describing the $\\text{RB}{{\\text{E}}_{\\alpha}}={{\\alpha}_{\\text{He}}}/{{\\alpha}_{\\text{ph}}}$ and ${{\\text{R}}_{\\beta}}={{\\beta}_{\\text{He}}}/{{\\beta}_{\\text{ph}}}$ ratios as a function of LET. Calculated RBE values at 2 Gy photon dose and at 10% survival ($\\text{RB}{{\\text{E}}_{10}}$ ) are compared with the experimental ones. Pearson's correlati...

  14. Statistical dynamical subgrid-scale parameterizations for geophysical flows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Kane, T J; Frederiksen, J S

    2008-01-01

    Simulations of both atmospheric and oceanic circulations at given finite resolutions are strongly dependent on the form and strengths of the dynamical subgrid-scale parameterizations (SSPs) and in particular are sensitive to subgrid-scale transient eddies interacting with the retained scale topography and the mean flow. In this paper, we present numerical results for SSPs of the eddy-topographic force, stochastic backscatter, eddy viscosity and eddy-mean field interaction using an inhomogeneous statistical turbulence model based on a quasi-diagonal direct interaction approximation (QDIA). Although the theoretical description on which our model is based is for general barotropic flows, we specifically focus on global atmospheric flows where large-scale Rossby waves are present. We compare and contrast the closure-based results with an important earlier heuristic SSP of the eddy-topographic force, based on maximum entropy or statistical canonical equilibrium arguments, developed specifically for general ocean circulation models (Holloway 1992 J. Phys. Oceanogr. 22 1033-46). Our results demonstrate that where strong zonal flows and Rossby waves are present, such as in the atmosphere, maximum entropy arguments are insufficient to accurately parameterize the subgrid contributions due to eddy-eddy, eddy-topographic and eddy-mean field interactions. We contrast our atmospheric results with findings for the oceans. Our study identifies subgrid-scale interactions that are currently not parameterized in numerical atmospheric climate models, which may lead to systematic defects in the simulated circulations.

  15. Status and perspectives of nanoscale device modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Macucci, M.; Lannaccone, G.; Greer, J.

    2001-01-01

    During the meetings of the theory and modelling working group, within the MEL-ARI (Microelectronics Advanced Research Initiative) and NID-FET (Nanotechnology information Devices-Future and Emerging Technologies) initiatives of the European Commission, we have been discussing the current status...

  16. Lightning NOx Production in CMAQ: Part II - Parameterization Based on Relationship between Observed NLDN Lightning Strikes and Modeled Convective Precipitation Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lightning-produced nitrogen oxides (NOX=NO+NO2) in the middle and upper troposphere play an essential role in the production of ozone (O3) and influence the oxidizing capacity of the troposphere. Despite much effort in both observing and modeling lightning NOX during the past dec...

  17. Parameterization of neutron production double-differential cross section above several tens-MeV by the use of moving source model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitsuki, Hirohiko; Shigyo, Nobuhiro; Ishibashi, Kenji

    2000-01-01

    The moving source model based on the Maxwell-like energy distribution with Gaussian shape terms are employed for analyzing the neutron emission spectra from proton-induced spallation reaction. The parallelization of the double differential cross section is made for the experimental and calculated neutron data in the energy region from several-tens MeV to 3 GeV. (author)

  18. Parameterization of a numerical 2-D debris flow model with entrainment: a case study of the Faucon catchment, Southern French Alps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Y. Hussin

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The occurrence of debris flows has been recorded for more than a century in the European Alps, accounting for the risk to settlements and other human infrastructure that have led to death, building damage and traffic disruptions. One of the difficulties in the quantitative hazard assessment of debris flows is estimating the run-out behavior, which includes the run-out distance and the related hazard intensities like the height and velocity of a debris flow. In addition, as observed in the French Alps, the process of entrainment of material during the run-out can be 10–50 times in volume with respect to the initially mobilized mass triggered at the source area. The entrainment process is evidently an important factor that can further determine the magnitude and intensity of debris flows. Research on numerical modeling of debris flow entrainment is still ongoing and involves some difficulties. This is partly due to our lack of knowledge of the actual process of the uptake and incorporation of material and due the effect of entrainment on the final behavior of a debris flow. Therefore, it is important to model the effects of this key erosional process on the formation of run-outs and related intensities. In this study we analyzed a debris flow with high entrainment rates that occurred in 2003 at the Faucon catchment in the Barcelonnette Basin (Southern French Alps. The historic event was back-analyzed using the Voellmy rheology and an entrainment model imbedded in the RAMMS 2-D numerical modeling software. A sensitivity analysis of the rheological and entrainment parameters was carried out and the effects of modeling with entrainment on the debris flow run-out, height and velocity were assessed.

  19. Heterotic particle models from various perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blaszczyk, Michael I.

    2012-10-15

    We consider the compactification of heterotic string theory on toroidal orbifolds and their resolutions. In the framework of gauged linear sigma models we develop realizations of such spaces, allowing to continously vary the moduli and thus smoothly interpolate between different corners of the theory. This way all factorizable orbifold resolutions as well as some non-factorizable ones can be obtained. We find that for a given geometry there are many model which realize it as a target space, differing in their complexity. We explore regions of moduli space which otherwise would not be accessible. In particular we are interested in the orbifold regime, where exact string calculations are possible, and the large volume regime, where techniques of supergravity compactification can be applied. By comparing these two theories and matching the spectra we find evidence for non-perturbative effects which interpolate between these regimes.

  20. Modeling Business Strategy: A Consumer Value Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Svee , Eric-Oluf; Giannoulis , Constantinos; Zdravkovic , Jelena

    2011-01-01

    Part 3: Business Modeling; International audience; Business strategy lays out the plan of an enterprise to achieve its vision by providing value to its customers. Typically, business strategy focuses on economic value and its relevant exchanges with customers and does not directly address consumer values. However, consumer values drive customers’ choices and decisions to use a product or service, and therefore should have a direct impact on business strategy. This paper explores whether and h...

  1. Empirical Storm-Time Correction to the International Reference Ionosphere Model E-Region Electron and Ion Density Parameterizations Using Observations from TIMED/SABER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mertens, Christoper J.; Winick, Jeremy R.; Russell, James M., III; Mlynczak, Martin G.; Evans, David S.; Bilitza, Dieter; Xu, Xiaojing

    2007-01-01

    The response of the ionospheric E-region to solar-geomagnetic storms can be characterized using observations of infrared 4.3 micrometers emission. In particular, we utilize nighttime TIMED/SABER measurements of broadband 4.3 micrometers limb emission and derive a new data product, the NO+(v) volume emission rate, which is our primary observation-based quantity for developing an empirical storm-time correction the IRI E-region electron density. In this paper we describe our E-region proxy and outline our strategy for developing the empirical storm model. In our initial studies, we analyzed a six day storm period during the Halloween 2003 event. The results of this analysis are promising and suggest that the ap-index is a viable candidate to use as a magnetic driver for our model.

  2. Stellar Atmospheric Parameterization Based on Deep Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Ru-yang; Li, Xiang-ru

    2017-07-01

    Deep learning is a typical learning method widely studied in the fields of machine learning, pattern recognition, and artificial intelligence. This work investigates the problem of stellar atmospheric parameterization by constructing a deep neural network with five layers, and the node number in each layer of the network is respectively 3821-500-100-50-1. The proposed scheme is verified on both the real spectra measured by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and the theoretic spectra computed with the Kurucz's New Opacity Distribution Function (NEWODF) model, to make an automatic estimation for three physical parameters: the effective temperature (Teff), surface gravitational acceleration (lg g), and metallic abundance (Fe/H). The results show that the stacked autoencoder deep neural network has a better accuracy for the estimation. On the SDSS spectra, the mean absolute errors (MAEs) are 79.95 for Teff/K, 0.0058 for (lg Teff/K), 0.1706 for lg (g/(cm·s-2)), and 0.1294 dex for the [Fe/H], respectively; On the theoretic spectra, the MAEs are 15.34 for Teff/K, 0.0011 for lg (Teff/K), 0.0214 for lg(g/(cm · s-2)), and 0.0121 dex for [Fe/H], respectively.

  3. Shallow Chamber & Conduit Behavior of Silicic Magma: A Thermo- and Fluid- Dynamic Parameterization Model of Physical Deformation as Constrained by Geodetic Observations: Case Study; Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunn de Rosas, C. L.

    2013-12-01

    The Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat (SHV) is an active, mainly andesitic and well-studied stratovolcano situated at the northern end of the Lesser Antilles Arc subduction zone in the Caribbean Sea. The goal of our research is to create a high resolution 3D subsurface model of the shallow and deeper aspects of the magma storage and plumbing system at SHV. Our model will integrate inversions using continuous and campaign geodetic observations at SHV from 1995 to the present as well as local seismic records taken at various unrest intervals to construct a best-fit geometry, pressure point source and inflation rate and magnitude. We will also incorporate a heterogeneous media in the crust and use the most contemporary understanding of deep crustal- or even mantle-depth 'hot-zone' genesis and chemical evolution of silicic and intermediate magmas to inform the character of the deep edifice influx. Our heat transfer model will be constructed with a modified 'thin shell' enveloping the magma chamber to simulate the insulating or conducting influence of heat-altered chamber boundary conditions. The final forward model should elucidate observational data preceding and proceeding unrest events, the behavioral suite of magma transport in the subsurface environment and the feedback mechanisms that may contribute to eruption triggering. Preliminary hypotheses suggest wet, low-viscosity residual melts derived from 'hot zones' will ascend rapidly to shallower stall-points and that their products (eventually erupted lavas as well as stalled plutonic masses) will experience and display two discrete periods of shallow evolution; a rapid depressurization crystallization event followed by a slower conduction-controlled heat transfer and cooling crystallization. These events have particular implications for shallow magma behaviors, notably inflation, compressibility and pressure values. Visualization of the model with its inversion constraints will be affected with Com

  4. New geological perspectives on earthquake recurrence models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, D.P.

    1997-01-01

    In most areas of the world the record of historical seismicity is too short or uncertain to accurately characterize the future distribution of earthquakes of different sizes in time and space. Most faults have not ruptured once, let alone repeatedly. Ultimately, the ability to correctly forecast the magnitude, location, and probability of future earthquakes depends on how well one can quantify the past behavior of earthquake sources. Paleoseismological trenching of active faults, historical surface ruptures, liquefaction features, and shaking-induced ground deformation structures provides fundamental information on the past behavior of earthquake sources. These studies quantify (a) the timing of individual past earthquakes and fault slip rates, which lead to estimates of recurrence intervals and the development of recurrence models and (b) the amount of displacement during individual events, which allows estimates of the sizes of past earthquakes on a fault. When timing and slip per event are combined with information on fault zone geometry and structure, models that define individual rupture segments can be developed. Paleoseismicity data, in the form of timing and size of past events, provide a window into the driving mechanism of the earthquake engine--the cycle of stress build-up and release

  5. USING PARAMETERIZATION OF OBJECTS IN AUTODESK INVENTOR IN DESIGNING STRUCTURAL CONNECTORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Borowski

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the parameterization of objects used for designing the type of elements as structural connectors and making modifications of their characteristics. The design process was carried out using Autodesk Inventor 2015. We show the latest software tools, which were used for parameterization and modeling selected types of structural connectors. We also show examples of the use of parameterization facilities in the process of constructing some details and making changes to geometry with holding of the shape the element. The presented method of Inventor usage has enabled fast and efficient creation of new objects based on sketches created.

  6. Influence of Superparameterization and a Higher-Order Turbulence Closure on Rainfall Bias Over Amazonia in Community Atmosphere Model Version 5: How Parameterization Changes Rainfall

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Kai [Jackson School of Geosciences, University of Texas at Austin, Austin TX USA; Fu, Rong [Jackson School of Geosciences, University of Texas at Austin, Austin TX USA; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles CA USA; Shaikh, Muhammad J. [Jackson School of Geosciences, University of Texas at Austin, Austin TX USA; Ghan, Steven [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Wang, Minghuai [Institute for Climate and Global Change Research and School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing China; Collaborative Innovation Center of Climate Change, Nanjing China; Leung, L. Ruby [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Dickinson, Robert E. [Jackson School of Geosciences, University of Texas at Austin, Austin TX USA; Marengo, Jose [Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas aos Desastres Naturais, São Jose dos Campos Brazil

    2017-09-21

    We evaluate the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 (CAM5) with a higher-order turbulence closure scheme, named Cloud Layers Unified By Binomials (CLUBB), and a Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) with two different microphysics configurations to investigate their influences on rainfall simulations over Southern Amazonia. The two different microphysics configurations in MMF are the one-moment cloud microphysics without aerosol treatment (SAM1MOM) and two-moment cloud microphysics coupled with aerosol treatment (SAM2MOM). Results show that both MMF-SAM2MOM and CLUBB effectively reduce the low biases of rainfall, mainly during the wet season. The CLUBB reduces low biases of humidity in the lower troposphere with further reduced shallow clouds. The latter enables more surface solar flux, leading to stronger convection and more rainfall. MMF, especially MMF-SAM2MOM, unstablizes the atmosphere with more moisture and higher atmospheric temperatures in the atmospheric boundary layer, allowing the growth of more extreme convection and further generating more deep convection. MMF-SAM2MOM significantly increases rainfall in the afternoon, but it does not reduce the early bias of the diurnal rainfall peak; LUBB, on the other hand, delays the afternoon peak time and produces more precipitation in the early morning, due to more realistic gradual transition between shallow and deep convection. MMF appears to be able to realistically capture the observed increase of relative humidity prior to deep convection, especially with its two-moment configuration. In contrast, in CAM5 and CAM5 with CLUBB, occurrence of deep convection in these models appears to be a result of stronger heating rather than higher relative humidity.

  7. Probabilistic modelling of overflow, surcharge and flooding in urban drainage using the first-order reliability method and parameterization of local rain series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Willems, Patrick

    2007-01-01

    Failure of urban drainage systems may occur due to surcharge or flooding at specific manholes in the system, or due to overflows from combined sewer systems to receiving waters. To quantify the probability or return period of failure, standard approaches make use of the simulation of design storms...... or long historical rainfall series in a hydrodynamic model of the urban drainage system. In this paper, an alternative probabilistic method is investigated: the First Order Reliability Method (FORM). To apply this method, a long rainfall time series was divided in rain storms (rain events), and each rain...

  8. Architectural and growth traits differ in effects on performance of clonal plants: an analysis using a field-parameterized simulation model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Wildová, Radka; Gough, L.; Herben, Tomáš; Hershock, Ch.; Goldberg, D. E.

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 116, č. 5 (2007), s. 836-852 ISSN 0030-1299 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA206/02/0953; GA ČR(CZ) GA206/02/0578 Grant - others:NSF(US) DEB99-74296; NSF(US) DEB99-74284 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60050516 Keywords : individual-based model * performance * plant architecture * competitive response * resource allocation Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 3.136, year: 2007

  9. Annonaceae substitution rates: a codon model perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lars Willem Chatrou

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The Annonaceae includes cultivated species of economic interest and represents an important source of information for better understanding the evolution of tropical rainforests. In phylogenetic analyses of DNA sequence data that are used to address evolutionary questions, it is imperative to use appropriate statistical models. Annonaceae are cases in point: Two sister clades, the subfamilies Annonoideae and Malmeoideae, contain the majority of Annonaceae species diversity. The Annonoideae generally show a greater degree of sequence divergence compared to the Malmeoideae, resulting in stark differences in branch lengths in phylogenetic trees. Uncertainty in how to interpret and analyse these differences has led to inconsistent results when estimating the ages of clades in Annonaceae using molecular dating techniques. We ask whether these differences may be attributed to inappropriate modelling assumptions in the phylogenetic analyses. Specifically, we test for (clade-specific differences in rates of non-synonymous and synonymous substitutions. A high ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous substitutions may lead to similarity of DNA sequences due to convergence instead of common ancestry, and as a result confound phylogenetic analyses. We use a dataset of three chloroplast genes (rbcL, matK, ndhF for 129 species representative of the family. We find that differences in branch lengths between major clades are not attributable to different rates of non-synonymous and synonymous substitutions. The differences in evolutionary rate between the major clades of Annonaceae pose a challenge for current molecular dating techniques that should be seen as a warning for the interpretation of such results in other organisms.

  10. A dynamic perspective in Freeman’s stakeholder model

    OpenAIRE

    Y. FASSIN

    2011-01-01

    Stakeholder literature has acknowledged the need to complement the extant theory on stakeholder management by more dynamic perspectives. This article makes use of the recent terminology of stakewatcher and stakeseeker to illustrate the dynamic aspect of stakeholder theory transposed in the graphical representation of Freeman’s stakeholder model. Presenting a few selected case studies, it applies the scheme on the concept of value responsibility chain; it exemplifies the role of stakeseekers i...

  11. Library of Congress Model, Perspective View

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-01-01

    The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) has produced the first high-resolution, near-global elevation dataset of Earth. In recognition of this achievement, and as an illustration of the data, the United States Library of Congress now displays a 'solid terrain model' of Los Angeles and adjacent mountainous terrain. The model was created by carving a high-density foam block using computer-guided drills that referenced the SRTM dataset. The block was then covered with a Landsat satellite image using computer-guided paint guns that referenced both the Landsat image and the SRTM dataset. The view shown here mimics the actual model on display at the Library of Congress and was generated from the same satellite image and elevation data sets. The model shows the Pacific Ocean and Santa Monica Mountains along the Malibu Coast (lower left), San Fernando Valley (left center), downtown Los Angeles (bottom center), San Gabriel and Pomona Valleys (lower right), San Gabriel Mountains (right center to far right), and part of the Mojave Desert (upper right). Colors are enhanced true color with added topographic shading, and elevation differences are exaggerated 1.5 times. The view is toward the north-northwest. The Los Angeles region was chosen for the Library of Congress model because it illustrates so many ways that topography affects the daily lives of people. The region consists of a coastal plain, inland valleys, mountains up to 3068 meters (10,064 feet), and a desert interior. Topography blocks the landward influence of marine airmasses here such that summer temperatures often differ by 40 degrees Fahrenheit (22 C) across this region at a given moment even at similar elevations. Temperatures also typically cool with rising elevation, and winter storms drop most of their moisture in the mountains, leaving little rainfall for areas further inland, thus creating the deserts. Topography also controls the land use pattern. The mountains are mostly very rugged, which greatly

  12. Parameterized neural networks for high-energy physics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baldi, Pierre; Sadowski, Peter [University of California, Department of Computer Science, Irvine, CA (United States); Cranmer, Kyle [NYU, Department of Physics, New York, NY (United States); Faucett, Taylor; Whiteson, Daniel [University of California, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Irvine, CA (United States)

    2016-05-15

    We investigate a new structure for machine learning classifiers built with neural networks and applied to problems in high-energy physics by expanding the inputs to include not only measured features but also physics parameters. The physics parameters represent a smoothly varying learning task, and the resulting parameterized classifier can smoothly interpolate between them and replace sets of classifiers trained at individual values. This simplifies the training process and gives improved performance at intermediate values, even for complex problems requiring deep learning. Applications include tools parameterized in terms of theoretical model parameters, such as the mass of a particle, which allow for a single network to provide improved discrimination across a range of masses. This concept is simple to implement and allows for optimized interpolatable results. (orig.)

  13. Parameterized neural networks for high-energy physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baldi, Pierre; Sadowski, Peter; Cranmer, Kyle; Faucett, Taylor; Whiteson, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    We investigate a new structure for machine learning classifiers built with neural networks and applied to problems in high-energy physics by expanding the inputs to include not only measured features but also physics parameters. The physics parameters represent a smoothly varying learning task, and the resulting parameterized classifier can smoothly interpolate between them and replace sets of classifiers trained at individual values. This simplifies the training process and gives improved performance at intermediate values, even for complex problems requiring deep learning. Applications include tools parameterized in terms of theoretical model parameters, such as the mass of a particle, which allow for a single network to provide improved discrimination across a range of masses. This concept is simple to implement and allows for optimized interpolatable results. (orig.)

  14. Normalization of the parameterized Courant-Snyder matrix for symplectic factorization of a parameterized Taylor map

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yan, Y.T.

    1991-01-01

    The transverse motion of charged particles in a circular accelerator can be well represented by a one-turn high-order Taylor map. For particles without energy deviation, the one-turn Taylor map is a 4-dimensional polynomials of four variables. The four variables are the transverse canonical coordinates and their conjugate momenta. To include the energy deviation (off-momentum) effects, the map has to be parameterized with a smallness factor representing the off-momentum and so the Taylor map becomes a 4-dimensional polynomials of five variables. It is for this type of parameterized Taylor map that a mehtod is presented for converting it into a parameterized Dragt-Finn factorization map. Parameterized nonlinear normal form and parameterized kick factorization can thus be obtained with suitable modification of the existing technique

  15. When probabilistic seismic hazard climbs volcanoes: the Mt. Etna case, Italy – Part 1: Model components for sources parameterization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Azzaro

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The volcanic region of Mt. Etna (Sicily, Italy represents a perfect lab for testing innovative approaches to seismic hazard assessment. This is largely due to the long record of historical and recent observations of seismic and tectonic phenomena, the high quality of various geophysical monitoring and particularly the rapid geodynamics clearly demonstrate some seismotectonic processes. We present here the model components and the procedures adopted for defining seismic sources to be used in a new generation of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA, the first results and maps of which are presented in a companion paper, Peruzza et al. (2017. The sources include, with increasing complexity, seismic zones, individual faults and gridded point sources that are obtained by integrating geological field data with long and short earthquake datasets (the historical macroseismic catalogue, which covers about 3 centuries, and a high-quality instrumental location database for the last decades. The analysis of the frequency–magnitude distribution identifies two main fault systems within the volcanic complex featuring different seismic rates that are controlled essentially by volcano-tectonic processes. We discuss the variability of the mean occurrence times of major earthquakes along the main Etnean faults by using an historical approach and a purely geologic method. We derive a magnitude–size scaling relationship specifically for this volcanic area, which has been implemented into a recently developed software tool – FiSH (Pace et al., 2016 – that we use to calculate the characteristic magnitudes and the related mean recurrence times expected for each fault. Results suggest that for the Mt. Etna area, the traditional assumptions of uniform and Poissonian seismicity can be relaxed; a time-dependent fault-based modeling, joined with a 3-D imaging of volcano-tectonic sources depicted by the recent instrumental seismicity, can therefore be

  16. A review of the theoretical basis for bulk mass flux convective parameterization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. S. Plant

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Most parameterizations for precipitating convection in use today are bulk schemes, in which an ensemble of cumulus elements with different properties is modelled as a single, representative entraining-detraining plume. We review the underpinning mathematical model for such parameterizations, in particular by comparing it with spectral models in which elements are not combined into the representative plume. The chief merit of a bulk model is that the representative plume can be described by an equation set with the same structure as that which describes each element in a spectral model. The equivalence relies on an ansatz for detrained condensate introduced by Yanai et al. (1973 and on a simplified microphysics. There are also conceptual differences in the closure of bulk and spectral parameterizations. In particular, we show that the convective quasi-equilibrium closure of Arakawa and Schubert (1974 for spectral parameterizations cannot be carried over to a bulk parameterization in a straightforward way. Quasi-equilibrium of the cloud work function assumes a timescale separation between a slow forcing process and a rapid convective response. But, for the natural bulk analogue to the cloud-work function, the relevant forcing is characterised by a different timescale, and so its quasi-equilibrium entails a different physical constraint. Closures of bulk parameterizations that use a parcel value of CAPE do not suffer from this timescale issue. However, the Yanai et al. (1973 ansatz must be invoked as a necessary ingredient of those closures.

  17. Modeling, simulation and visual analysis of crowds a multidisciplinary perspective

    CERN Document Server

    Ali, Saad; Manocha, Dinesh; Shah, Mubarak

    2013-01-01

    Over the last several years there has been a growing interest in developing computational methodologies for modeling and analyzing movements and behaviors of 'crowds' of people. This interest spans several scientific areas that includes Computer Vision, Computer Graphics, and Pedestrian Evacuation Dynamics. Despite the fact that these different scientific fields are trying to model the same physical entity (i.e. a crowd of people), research ideas have evolved independently. As a result each discipline has developed techniques and perspectives that are characteristically their own.

  18. Parameterization of pion production and reaction cross sections at LAMPF energies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burman, R.L.; Smith, E.S.

    1989-05-01

    A parameterization of pion production and reaction cross sections is developed for eventual use in modeling neutrino production by protons in a beam stop. Emphasis is placed upon smooth parameterizations for proton energies up to 800 MeV, for all pion energies and angles, and for a wide range of materials. The resulting representations of the data are well-behaved and can be used for extrapolation to regions where there are no measurements. 22 refs., 16 figs., 2 tabs

  19. A parameterization for the absorption of solar radiation by water vapor in the earth's atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, W.-C.

    1976-01-01

    A parameterization for the absorption of solar radiation as a function of the amount of water vapor in the earth's atmosphere is obtained. Absorption computations are based on the Goody band model and the near-infrared absorption band data of Ludwig et al. A two-parameter Curtis-Godson approximation is used to treat the inhomogeneous atmosphere. Heating rates based on a frequently used one-parameter pressure-scaling approximation are also discussed and compared with the present parameterization.

  20. Analysis of sensitivity to different parameterization schemes for a subtropical cyclone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quitián-Hernández, L.; Fernández-González, S.; González-Alemán, J. J.; Valero, F.; Martín, M. L.

    2018-05-01

    A sensitivity analysis to diverse WRF model physical parameterization schemes is carried out during the lifecycle of a Subtropical cyclone (STC). STCs are low-pressure systems that share tropical and extratropical characteristics, with hybrid thermal structures. In October 2014, a STC made landfall in the Canary Islands, causing widespread damage from strong winds and precipitation there. The system began to develop on October 18 and its effects lasted until October 21. Accurate simulation of this type of cyclone continues to be a major challenge because of its rapid intensification and unique characteristics. In the present study, several numerical simulations were performed using the WRF model to do a sensitivity analysis of its various parameterization schemes for the development and intensification of the STC. The combination of parameterization schemes that best simulated this type of phenomenon was thereby determined. In particular, the parameterization combinations that included the Tiedtke cumulus schemes had the most positive effects on model results. Moreover, concerning STC track validation, optimal results were attained when the STC was fully formed and all convective processes stabilized. Furthermore, to obtain the parameterization schemes that optimally categorize STC structure, a verification using Cyclone Phase Space is assessed. Consequently, the combination of parameterizations including the Tiedtke cumulus schemes were again the best in categorizing the cyclone's subtropical structure. For strength validation, related atmospheric variables such as wind speed and precipitable water were analyzed. Finally, the effects of using a deterministic or probabilistic approach in simulating intense convective phenomena were evaluated.

  1. A stochastic parameterization for deep convection using cellular automata

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bengtsson, L.; Steinheimer, M.; Bechtold, P.; Geleyn, J.

    2012-12-01

    Cumulus parameterizations used in most operational weather and climate models today are based on the mass-flux concept which took form in the early 1970's. In such schemes it is assumed that a unique relationship exists between the ensemble-average of the sub-grid convection, and the instantaneous state of the atmosphere in a vertical grid box column. However, such a relationship is unlikely to be described by a simple deterministic function (Palmer, 2011). Thus, because of the statistical nature of the parameterization challenge, it has been recognized by the community that it is important to introduce stochastic elements to the parameterizations (for instance: Plant and Craig, 2008, Khouider et al. 2010, Frenkel et al. 2011, Bentsson et al. 2011, but the list is far from exhaustive). There are undoubtedly many ways in which stochastisity can enter new developments. In this study we use a two-way interacting cellular automata (CA), as its intrinsic nature possesses many qualities interesting for deep convection parameterization. In the one-dimensional entraining plume approach, there is no parameterization of horizontal transport of heat, moisture or momentum due to cumulus convection. In reality, mass transport due to gravity waves that propagate in the horizontal can trigger new convection, important for the organization of deep convection (Huang, 1988). The self-organizational characteristics of the CA allows for lateral communication between adjacent NWP model grid-boxes, and temporal memory. Thus the CA scheme used in this study contain three interesting components for representation of cumulus convection, which are not present in the traditional one-dimensional bulk entraining plume method: horizontal communication, memory and stochastisity. The scheme is implemented in the high resolution regional NWP model ALARO, and simulations show enhanced organization of convective activity along squall-lines. Probabilistic evaluation demonstrate an enhanced spread in

  2. Understanding Quality in Process Modelling: Towards a Holistic Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Recker

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Quality is one of the main topics in current conceptual modelling research, as is the field of business process modelling. Yet, widely acknowledged academic contributions towards an understanding or measurement of business process model quality are limited at best. In this paper I argue that the development of methodical theories concerning the measurement or establishment of process model quality must be preceded by methodological elaborations on business process modelling. I further argue that existing epistemological foundations of process modelling are insufficient for describing all extrinsic and intrinsic traits of model quality. This in turn has led to a lack of holistic understanding of process modelling. Taking into account the inherent social and purpose-oriented character of process modelling in contemporary organizations I present a socio-pragmatic constructionist methodology of business process modelling and sketch out implications of this perspective towards an understanding of process model quality. I anticipate that, based on this research, theories can be developed that facilitate the evaluation of the ’goodness’ of a business process model.

  3. “Using Statistical Comparisons between SPartICus Cirrus Microphysical Measurements, Detailed Cloud Models, and GCM Cloud Parameterizations to Understand Physical Processes Controlling Cirrus Properties and to Improve the Cloud Parameterizations”

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woods, Sarah [SPEC Inc., Boulder, CO (United States)

    2015-12-01

    The dual objectives of this project were improving our basic understanding of processes that control cirrus microphysical properties and improvement of the representation of these processes in the parameterizations. A major effort in the proposed research was to integrate, calibrate, and better understand the uncertainties in all of these measurements.

  4. Parameterizing the competition between homogeneous and heterogeneous freezing in cirrus cloud formation – monodisperse ice nuclei

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Barahona

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a parameterization of cirrus cloud formation that computes the ice crystal number and size distribution under the presence of homogeneous and heterogeneous freezing. The parameterization is very simple to apply and is derived from the analytical solution of the cloud parcel equations, assuming that the ice nuclei population is monodisperse and chemically homogeneous. In addition to the ice distribution, an analytical expression is provided for the limiting ice nuclei number concentration that suppresses ice formation from homogeneous freezing. The parameterization is evaluated against a detailed numerical parcel model, and reproduces numerical simulations over a wide range of conditions with an average error of 6±33%. The parameterization also compares favorably against other formulations that require some form of numerical integration.

  5. Gain scheduling using the Youla parameterization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niemann, Hans Henrik; Stoustrup, Jakob

    1999-01-01

    Gain scheduling controllers are considered in this paper. The gain scheduling problem where the scheduling parameter vector cannot be measured directly, but needs to be estimated is considered. An estimation of the scheduling vector has been derived by using the Youla parameterization. The use...... in connection with H_inf gain scheduling controllers....

  6. Active Subspaces of Airfoil Shape Parameterizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grey, Zachary J.; Constantine, Paul G.

    2018-05-01

    Design and optimization benefit from understanding the dependence of a quantity of interest (e.g., a design objective or constraint function) on the design variables. A low-dimensional active subspace, when present, identifies important directions in the space of design variables; perturbing a design along the active subspace associated with a particular quantity of interest changes that quantity more, on average, than perturbing the design orthogonally to the active subspace. This low-dimensional structure provides insights that characterize the dependence of quantities of interest on design variables. Airfoil design in a transonic flow field with a parameterized geometry is a popular test problem for design methodologies. We examine two particular airfoil shape parameterizations, PARSEC and CST, and study the active subspaces present in two common design quantities of interest, transonic lift and drag coefficients, under each shape parameterization. We mathematically relate the two parameterizations with a common polynomial series. The active subspaces enable low-dimensional approximations of lift and drag that relate to physical airfoil properties. In particular, we obtain and interpret a two-dimensional approximation of both transonic lift and drag, and we show how these approximation inform a multi-objective design problem.

  7. Non-perturbative Aspects of QCD and Parameterized Quark Propagator

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HAN Ding-An; ZHOU Li-Juan; ZENG Ya-Guang; GU Yun-Ting; CAO Hui; MA Wei-Xing; MENG Cheng-Ju; PAN Ji-Huan

    2008-01-01

    Based on the Global Color Symmetry Model, the non-perturbative QCD vacuum is investigated in theparameterized fully dressed quark propagator. Our theoretical predictions for various quantities characterized the QCD vacuum are in agreement with those predicted by many other phenomenological QCD inspired models. The successful predictions clearly indicate the extensive validity of our parameterized quark propagator used here. A detailed discussion on the arbitrariness in determining the integration cut-off parameter of# in calculating QCD vacuum condensates and a good method, which avoided the dependence of calculating results on the cut-off parameter is also strongly recommended to readers.

  8. Local Balancing System from the Business Model Canvas Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matusiak Bożena Ewa

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents an overall view of the business model (BM for the e-balance system for: balancing energy production and consumption in energy efficient, smart neighbourhoods (the e-balance project, FP7-SMARTCITIES-2013 along with its functionalities, based upon the Osterwalder’s canvas methodology. Additionally, this is the second, after two years of work, more incisive evaluation of the BM from the user’s and demo site’s perspective (Bronsbergen, the Netherlands. The aim of this paper is to present results and assess the above mentioned BM in the face its commercialisation and applicability to Europe.

  9. The importance of parameterization when simulating the hydrologic response of vegetative land-cover change

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Jeremy; Stengel, Victoria; Rendon, Samuel; Banta, John

    2017-08-01

    Computer models of hydrologic systems are frequently used to investigate the hydrologic response of land-cover change. If the modeling results are used to inform resource-management decisions, then providing robust estimates of uncertainty in the simulated response is an important consideration. Here we examine the importance of parameterization, a necessarily subjective process, on uncertainty estimates of the simulated hydrologic response of land-cover change. Specifically, we applied the soil water assessment tool (SWAT) model to a 1.4 km2 watershed in southern Texas to investigate the simulated hydrologic response of brush management (the mechanical removal of woody plants), a discrete land-cover change. The watershed was instrumented before and after brush-management activities were undertaken, and estimates of precipitation, streamflow, and evapotranspiration (ET) are available; these data were used to condition and verify the model. The role of parameterization in brush-management simulation was evaluated by constructing two models, one with 12 adjustable parameters (reduced parameterization) and one with 1305 adjustable parameters (full parameterization). Both models were subjected to global sensitivity analysis as well as Monte Carlo and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) conditioning to identify important model inputs and to estimate uncertainty in several quantities of interest related to brush management. Many realizations from both parameterizations were identified as behavioral in that they reproduce daily mean streamflow acceptably well according to Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, percent bias, and coefficient of determination. However, the total volumetric ET difference resulting from simulated brush management remains highly uncertain after conditioning to daily mean streamflow, indicating that streamflow data alone are not sufficient to inform the model inputs that influence the simulated outcomes of brush management

  10. Simulation of the Greenland Ice Sheet over two glacial–interglacial cycles: investigating a sub-ice-shelf melt parameterization and relative sea level forcing in an ice-sheet–ice-shelf model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. L. Bradley

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Observational evidence, including offshore moraines and sediment cores, confirm that at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS expanded to a significantly larger spatial extent than seen at present, grounding into Baffin Bay and out onto the continental shelf break. Given this larger spatial extent and its close proximity to the neighbouring Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS and Innuitian Ice Sheet (IIS, it is likely these ice sheets will have had a strong non-local influence on the spatial and temporal behaviour of the GrIS. Most previous paleo ice-sheet modelling simulations recreated an ice sheet that either did not extend out onto the continental shelf or utilized a simplified marine ice parameterization which did not fully include the effect of ice shelves or neglected the sensitivity of the GrIS to this non-local bedrock signal from the surrounding ice sheets. In this paper, we investigated the evolution of the GrIS over the two most recent glacial–interglacial cycles (240 ka BP to the present day using the ice-sheet–ice-shelf model IMAU-ICE. We investigated the solid earth influence of the LIS and IIS via an offline relative sea level (RSL forcing generated by a glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA model. The RSL forcing governed the spatial and temporal pattern of sub-ice-shelf melting via changes in the water depth below the ice shelves. In the ensemble of simulations, at the glacial maximums, the GrIS coalesced with the IIS to the north and expanded to the continental shelf break to the southwest but remained too restricted to the northeast. In terms of the global mean sea level contribution, at the Last Interglacial (LIG and LGM the ice sheet added 1.46 and −2.59 m, respectively. This LGM contribution by the GrIS is considerably higher (∼  1.26 m than most previous studies whereas the contribution to the LIG highstand is lower (∼  0.7 m. The spatial and temporal behaviour of the northern margin was

  11. E-governmental value chain models : E-government from a business (modelling) perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wassenaar, Arjen

    2000-01-01

    The paper considers electronic governmental activities from a business perspective, resulting in a so-called governmental value chain model. This model aims to support practitioners for better understanding and realisation of joint organisational and information system innovations in the public

  12. Age replacement models: A summary with new perspectives and methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Xufeng; Al-Khalifa, Khalifa N.; Magid Hamouda, Abdel; Nakagawa, Toshio

    2017-01-01

    Age replacement models are fundamental to maintenance theory. This paper summarizes our new perspectives and hods in age replacement models: First, we optimize the expected cost rate for a required availability level and vice versa. Second, an asymptotic model with simple calculation is proposed by using the cumulative hazard function skillfully. Third, we challenge the established theory such that preventive replacement should be non-random and only corrective replacement should be made for the unit with exponential failure. Fourth, three replacement policies with random working cycles are discussed, which are called overtime replacement, replacement first, and replacement last, respectively. Fifth, the policies of replacement first and last are formulated with general models. Sixth, age replacement is modified for the situation when the economical life cycle of the unit is a random variable with probability distribution. Finally, models of a parallel system with constant and random number of units are taken into considerations. The models of expected cost rates are obtained and optimal replacement times to minimize them are discussed analytically and computed numerically. Further studies and potential applications are also indicated at the end of discussions of the above models. - Highlights: • Optimization of cost rate for availability level is discussed and vice versa. • Asymptotic and random replacement models are discussed. • Overtime replacement, replacement first and replacement last are surveyed. • Replacement policy with random life cycle is given. • A parallel system with random number of units is modeled.

  13. Perspective: Markov models for long-timescale biomolecular dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schwantes, C. R.; McGibbon, R. T. [Department of Chemistry, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305 (United States); Pande, V. S., E-mail: pande@stanford.edu [Department of Chemistry, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305 (United States); Department of Computer Science, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305 (United States); Department of Structural Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305 (United States); Biophysics Program, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305 (United States)

    2014-09-07

    Molecular dynamics simulations have the potential to provide atomic-level detail and insight to important questions in chemical physics that cannot be observed in typical experiments. However, simply generating a long trajectory is insufficient, as researchers must be able to transform the data in a simulation trajectory into specific scientific insights. Although this analysis step has often been taken for granted, it deserves further attention as large-scale simulations become increasingly routine. In this perspective, we discuss the application of Markov models to the analysis of large-scale biomolecular simulations. We draw attention to recent improvements in the construction of these models as well as several important open issues. In addition, we highlight recent theoretical advances that pave the way for a new generation of models of molecular kinetics.

  14. Additive Manufacturing and Business Models: Current Knowledge and Missing Perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christina Öberg

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Additive manufacturing, that is 3D printing technology, may change the way companies operate their businesses. This article adopts a business model perspective to create an understanding of what we know about these changes. It summarizes current knowledge on additive manufacturing within management and business research, and it discusses future research directions in relation to business models for additive manufacturing. Using the scientific database Web of Science, 116 journal articles were identified. The literature review reveals that most research concerns manufacturing optimization. A more holistic view of the changes that additive manufacturing may bring about for firms is needed, as is more research on changed value propositions, and customer/sales-related issues. The article contributes to previous research by systematically summarizing additive manufacturing research in the business and management literature, and by highlighting areas for further investigation related to the business models of individual firms.

  15. Perspective: Markov models for long-timescale biomolecular dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwantes, C. R.; McGibbon, R. T.; Pande, V. S.

    2014-01-01

    Molecular dynamics simulations have the potential to provide atomic-level detail and insight to important questions in chemical physics that cannot be observed in typical experiments. However, simply generating a long trajectory is insufficient, as researchers must be able to transform the data in a simulation trajectory into specific scientific insights. Although this analysis step has often been taken for granted, it deserves further attention as large-scale simulations become increasingly routine. In this perspective, we discuss the application of Markov models to the analysis of large-scale biomolecular simulations. We draw attention to recent improvements in the construction of these models as well as several important open issues. In addition, we highlight recent theoretical advances that pave the way for a new generation of models of molecular kinetics

  16. Kolb's Experiential Learning Model: Critique from a Modeling Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergsteiner, Harald; Avery, Gayle C.; Neumann, Ruth

    2010-01-01

    Kolb's experiential learning theory has been widely influential in adult learning. The theory and associated instruments continue to be criticized, but rarely is the graphical model itself examined. This is significant because models can aid scientific understanding and progress, as well as theory development and research. Applying accepted…

  17. Multisite Evaluation of APEX for Water Quality: II. Regional Parameterization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Nathan O; Baffaut, Claire; Lory, John A; Anomaa Senaviratne, G M M M; Bhandari, Ammar B; Udawatta, Ranjith P; Sweeney, Daniel W; Helmers, Matt J; Van Liew, Mike W; Mallarino, Antonio P; Wortmann, Charles S

    2017-11-01

    Phosphorus (P) Index assessment requires independent estimates of long-term average annual P loss from fields, representing multiple climatic scenarios, management practices, and landscape positions. Because currently available measured data are insufficient to evaluate P Index performance, calibrated and validated process-based models have been proposed as tools to generate the required data. The objectives of this research were to develop a regional parameterization for the Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender (APEX) model to estimate edge-of-field runoff, sediment, and P losses in restricted-layer soils of Missouri and Kansas and to assess the performance of this parameterization using monitoring data from multiple sites in this region. Five site-specific calibrated models (SSCM) from within the region were used to develop a regionally calibrated model (RCM), which was further calibrated and validated with measured data. Performance of the RCM was similar to that of the SSCMs for runoff simulation and had Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) > 0.72 and absolute percent bias (|PBIAS|) 90%) and was particularly ineffective at simulating sediment loss from locations with small sediment loads. The RCM had acceptable performance for simulation of total P loss (NSE > 0.74, |PBIAS| < 30%) but underperformed the SSCMs. Total P-loss estimates should be used with caution due to poor simulation of sediment loss. Although we did not attain our goal of a robust regional parameterization of APEX for estimating sediment and total P losses, runoff estimates with the RCM were acceptable for P Index evaluation. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  18. The Perspectives of New Franchising Models in Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lyudmila A. Mikhailova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: the main goal of the article is to define the development perspectives of the new franchising models in Russia (specifically quasifranchising, freedom franchising and branchising. To achieve this the following tusks should be completed: to define the specific characteristics of the following models as well as the factors which influenced their occurrence; to question Russian franchisors in order to understand their desire to develop their business under the new franchising models; to identify the key development possibilities of the new franchising models in Russia based on the gathered data. Methods: the article was prepared with the help of theoretical as well as economic analysis. Moreover, the series of the formalized telephone interviews with the Russian businessmen were conducted by the author. Based on the results gathered the conclusions on the development perspectives of the new franchising models in Russia were drawn. Results: currently new franchising models are conquering the Russian market. In comparison to the classical franchising model new franchising models are riskier for the franchisor due to the certain freedom available to franchisees. Quasifranchising, which is based on the business model transfer without the brand transfer, is suitable for the young concepts and for the franchisors seeking for the increasing number of franchisees. Freedom franchising enabling assortment and outlook variety of the point of contact is a good alternative for the franchisees who struggle for individuality even in the boundaries of the franchise as well as for the franchisors looking for the franchisees of that kind. Finally, branchising, which means franchisor’s and franchisee’s co-investment, is applicable for the franchises with high level of investments needed. Conclusions and Relevance: the materials of the article show the certain place of the new franchising models on the Russian market. They make it possible to adjust the

  19. Parameterized Disturbance Observer Based Controller to Reduce Cyclic Loads of Wind Turbine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raja M. Imran

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with bump-less transfer of parameterized disturbance observer based controller with individual pitch control strategy to reduce cyclic loads of wind turbine in full load operation. Cyclic loads are generated due to wind shear and tower shadow effects. Multivariable disturbance observer based linear controllers are designed with objective to reduce output power fluctuation, tower oscillation and drive-train torsion using optimal control theory. Linear parameterized controllers are designed by using a smooth scheduling mechanism between the controllers. The proposed parameterized controller with individual pitch was tested on nonlinear Fatigue, Aerodynamics, Structures, and Turbulence (FAST code model of National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL’s 5 MW wind turbine. The closed-loop system performance was assessed by comparing the simulation results of proposed controller with a fixed gain and parameterized controller with collective pitch for full load operation of wind turbine. Simulations are performed with step wind to see the behavior of the system with wind shear and tower shadow effects. Then, turbulent wind is applied to see the smooth transition of the controllers. It can be concluded from the results that the proposed parameterized control shows smooth transition from one controller to another controller. Moreover, 3p and 6p harmonics are well mitigated as compared to fixed gain DOBC and parameterized DOBC with collective pitch.

  20. Parameterizing the interstellar dust temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hocuk, S.; Szűcs, L.; Caselli, P.; Cazaux, S.; Spaans, M.; Esplugues, G. B.

    2017-08-01

    The temperature of interstellar dust particles is of great importance to astronomers. It plays a crucial role in the thermodynamics of interstellar clouds, because of the gas-dust collisional coupling. It is also a key parameter in astrochemical studies that governs the rate at which molecules form on dust. In 3D (magneto)hydrodynamic simulations often a simple expression for the dust temperature is adopted, because of computational constraints, while astrochemical modelers tend to keep the dust temperature constant over a large range of parameter space. Our aim is to provide an easy-to-use parametric expression for the dust temperature as a function of visual extinction (AV) and to shed light on the critical dependencies of the dust temperature on the grain composition. We obtain an expression for the dust temperature by semi-analytically solving the dust thermal balance for different types of grains and compare to a collection of recent observational measurements. We also explore the effect of ices on the dust temperature. Our results show that a mixed carbonaceous-silicate type dust with a high carbon volume fraction matches the observations best. We find that ice formation allows the dust to be warmer by up to 15% at high optical depths (AV> 20 mag) in the interstellar medium. Our parametric expression for the dust temperature is presented as Td = [ 11 + 5.7 × tanh(0.61 - log 10(AV) ]χuv1/5.9, where χuv is in units of the Draine (1978, ApJS, 36, 595) UV field.

  1. Perspectives for computational modeling of cell replacement for neurological disorders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James B Aimone

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical modeling of anatomically-constrained neural networks has provided significant insights regarding the response of networks to neurological disorders or injury. A logical extension of these models is to incorporate treatment regimens to investigate network responses to intervention. The addition of nascent neurons from stem cell precursors into damaged or diseased tissue has been used as a successful therapeutic tool in recent decades. Interestingly, models have been developed to examine the incorporation of new neurons into intact adult structures, particularly the dentate granule neurons of the hippocampus. These studies suggest that the unique properties of maturing neurons can impact circuit behavior in unanticipated ways. In this perspective, we review the current status of models used to examine damaged CNS structures with particular focus on cortical damage due to stroke. Secondly, we suggest that computational modeling of cell replacement therapies can be made feasible by implementing approaches taken by current models of adult neurogenesis. The development of these models is critical for generating hypotheses regarding transplant therapies and improving outcomes by tailoring transplants to desired effects.

  2. Astrocyte regulation of sleep circuits: experimental and modeling perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tommaso eFellin

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Integrated within neural circuits, astrocytes have recently been shown to modulate brain rhythms thought to mediate sleep function. Experimental evidence suggests that local impact of astrocytes on single synapses translates into global modulation of neuronal networks and behavior. We discuss these findings in the context of current conceptual models of sleep generation and function, each of which have historically focused on neural mechanisms. We highlight the implications and the challenges introduced by these results from a conceptual and computational perspective. We further provide modeling directions on how these data might extend our knowledge of astrocytic properties and sleep function. Given our evolving understanding of how local cellular activities during sleep lead to functional outcomes for the brain, further mechanistic and theoretical understanding of astrocytic contribution to these dynamics will undoubtedly be of great basic and translational benefit.

  3. Parameterized Concurrent Multi-Party Session Types

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minas Charalambides

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Session types have been proposed as a means of statically verifying implementations of communication protocols. Although prior work has been successful in verifying some classes of protocols, it does not cope well with parameterized, multi-actor scenarios with inherent asynchrony. For example, the sliding window protocol is inexpressible in previously proposed session type systems. This paper describes System-A, a new typing language which overcomes many of the expressiveness limitations of prior work. System-A explicitly supports asynchrony and parallelism, as well as multiple forms of parameterization. We define System-A and show how it can be used for the static verification of a large class of asynchronous communication protocols.

  4. A meta-model perspective on business models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alberts, Berend Thomas; Meertens, Lucas Onno; Iacob, Maria Eugenia; Nieuwenhuis, Lambertus Johannes Maria; Shishkov, Boris

    2013-01-01

    The business model field of research is a young and emerging discipline that finds itself confronted with the need for a common language, lack of conceptual consolidation, and without adequate theoretical development. This not only slows down research, but also undermines business model’s usefulness

  5. Shared mental models of integrated care: aligning multiple stakeholder perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Jenna M; Baker, G Ross

    2012-01-01

    Health service organizations and professionals are under increasing pressure to work together to deliver integrated patient care. A common understanding of integration strategies may facilitate the delivery of integrated care across inter-organizational and inter-professional boundaries. This paper aims to build a framework for exploring and potentially aligning multiple stakeholder perspectives of systems integration. The authors draw from the literature on shared mental models, strategic management and change, framing, stakeholder management, and systems theory to develop a new construct, Mental Models of Integrated Care (MMIC), which consists of three types of mental models, i.e. integration-task, system-role, and integration-belief. The MMIC construct encompasses many of the known barriers and enablers to integrating care while also providing a comprehensive, theory-based framework of psychological factors that may influence inter-organizational and inter-professional relations. While the existing literature on integration focuses on optimizing structures and processes, the MMIC construct emphasizes the convergence and divergence of stakeholders' knowledge and beliefs, and how these underlying cognitions influence interactions (or lack thereof) across the continuum of care. MMIC may help to: explain what differentiates effective from ineffective integration initiatives; determine system readiness to integrate; diagnose integration problems; and develop interventions for enhancing integrative processes and ultimately the delivery of integrated care. Global interest and ongoing challenges in integrating care underline the need for research on the mental models that characterize the behaviors of actors within health systems; the proposed framework offers a starting point for applying a cognitive perspective to health systems integration.

  6. Modelling and simulating a crisis management system: an organisational perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaawa, Mohamed; Thabet, Inès; Hanachi, Chihab; Ben Said, Lamjed

    2017-04-01

    Crises are complex situations due to the dynamism of the environment, its unpredictability and the complexity of the interactions among several different and autonomous involved organisations. In such a context, establishing an organisational view as well as structuring organisations' communications and their functioning is a crucial requirement. In this article, we propose a multi-agent organisational model (OM) to abstract, simulate and analyse a crisis management system (CMS). The objective is to evaluate the CMS from an organisational view, to assess its strength as well as its weakness and to provide deciders with some recommendations for a more flexible and reactive CMS. The proposed OM is illustrated through a real case study: a snowstorm in a Tunisian region. More precisely, we made the following contribution: firstly, we provide an environmental model that identifies the concepts involved in the crisis. Then, we define a role model that copes with the involved actors. In addition, we specify the organisational structure and the interaction model that rule communications and structure actors' functioning. Those models, built following the GAIA methodology, abstract the CMS from an organisational perspective. Finally, we implemented a customisable multi-agent simulator based on the Janus platform to analyse, through several performed simulations, the organisational model.

  7. Applied genre analysis: a multi-perspective model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vijay K Bhatia

    2002-04-01

    Full Text Available Genre analysis can be viewed from two different perspectives: it may be seen as a reflection of the complex realities of the world of institutionalised communication, or it may be seen as a pedagogically effective and convenient tool for the design of language teaching programmes, often situated within simulated contexts of classroom activities. This paper makes an attempt to understand and resolve the tension between these two seemingly contentious perspectives to answer the question: "Is generic description a reflection of reality, or a convenient fiction invented by applied linguists?". The paper also discusses issues related to the nature and use of linguistic description in a genre-based educational enterprise, claiming that instead of using generic descriptions as models for linguistic reproduction of conventional forms to respond to recurring social contexts, as is often the case in many communication based curriculum contexts, they can be used as analytical resource to understand and manipulate complex inter-generic and multicultural realisations of professional discourse, which will enable learners to use generic knowledge to respond to novel social contexts and also to create new forms of discourse to achieve pragmatic success as well as other powerful human agendas.

  8. Impact of APEX parameterization and soil data on runoff, sediment, and nutrients transport assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hydrological models have become essential tools for environmental assessments. This study’s objective was to evaluate a best professional judgment (BPJ) parameterization of the Agricultural Policy and Environmental eXtender (APEX) model with soil-survey data against the calibrated model with either ...

  9. Improving microphysics in a convective parameterization: possibilities and limitations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labbouz, Laurent; Heikenfeld, Max; Stier, Philip; Morrison, Hugh; Milbrandt, Jason; Protat, Alain; Kipling, Zak

    2017-04-01

    The convective cloud field model (CCFM) is a convective parameterization implemented in the climate model ECHAM6.1-HAM2.2. It represents a population of clouds within each ECHAM-HAM model column, simulating up to 10 different convective cloud types with individual radius, vertical velocities and microphysical properties. Comparisons between CCFM and radar data at Darwin, Australia, show that in order to reproduce both the convective cloud top height distribution and the vertical velocity profile, the effect of aerodynamic drag on the rising parcel has to be considered, along with a reduced entrainment parameter. A new double-moment microphysics (the Predicted Particle Properties scheme, P3) has been implemented in the latest version of CCFM and is compared to the standard single-moment microphysics and the radar retrievals at Darwin. The microphysical process rates (autoconversion, accretion, deposition, freezing, …) and their response to changes in CDNC are investigated and compared to high resolution CRM WRF simulations over the Amazon region. The results shed light on the possibilities and limitations of microphysics improvements in the framework of CCFM and in convective parameterizations in general.

  10. Annual Perspectives in Mathematics Education 2016: Mathematical Modeling and Modeling Mathematics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, Christian R., Ed.; McDuffie, Amy Roth, Ed.

    2016-01-01

    Mathematical modeling plays an increasingly important role both in real-life applications--in engineering, business, the social sciences, climate study, advanced design, and more--and within mathematics education itself. This 2016 volume of "Annual Perspectives in Mathematics Education" ("APME") focuses on this key topic from a…

  11. Ubuntu-Praxis: Re-Modelling the Balanced Scorecard Model at a University, an Afrocentric Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndoda, Gladys Ruvimbo; Sikwila, Mike Nyamazana

    2014-01-01

    The authors design the innovation and learning perspective of the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) of "Ubuntu and client service charter nexus." This article borrows and advances the research carried out by Khomba, Vermaak and Gouws (2011). The point of departure is on praxis of ubuntu/unhu as a holistic approach in the re-modelling of the BSC…

  12. On parameterization of the inverse problem for estimating aquifer properties using tracer data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kowalsky, M. B.; Finsterle, Stefan A.; Williams, Kenneth H.; Murray, Christopher J.; Commer, Michael; Newcomer, Darrell R.; Englert, Andreas L.; Steefel, Carl I.; Hubbard, Susan

    2012-01-01

    We consider a field-scale tracer experiment conducted in 2007 in a shallow uranium-contaminated aquifer at Rifle, Colorado. In developing a reliable approach for inferring hydrological properties at the site through inverse modeling of the tracer data, decisions made on how to parameterize heterogeneity (i.e., how to represent a heterogeneous distribution using a limited number of parameters that are amenable to estimation) are of paramount importance. We present an approach for hydrological inversion of the tracer data and explore, using a 2D synthetic example at first, how parameterization affects the solution, and how additional characterization data could be incorporated to reduce uncertainty. Specifically, we examine sensitivity of the results to the configuration of pilot points used in a geostatistical parameterization, and to the sampling frequency and measurement error of the concentration data. A reliable solution of the inverse problem is found when the pilot point configuration is carefully implemented. In addition, we examine the use of a zonation parameterization, in which the geometry of the geological facies is known (e.g., from geophysical data or core data), to reduce the non-uniqueness of the solution and the number of unknown parameters to be estimated. When zonation information is only available for a limited region, special treatment in the remainder of the model is necessary, such as using a geostatistical parameterization. Finally, inversion of the actual field data is performed using 2D and 3D models, and results are compared with slug test data.

  13. Urban design and modeling: applications and perspectives on GIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Mingucci

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, GIS systems have evolved because of technological advancements that make possible the simultaneous management of multiple amount of information.Interesting aspects in their application concern the site documentation at the territorial scale taking advantage of CAD/BIM systems, usually working at the building scale instead.In this sense, the survey using sophisticated equipment such as laser scanners or UAV drones quickly captures data that can be enjoyed across even through new “mobile” technologies, operating in the web-based information systems context. This paper aims to investigate use and perspectives pertaining to geographic information technologies, analysis and design tools meant for modeling at different scales, referring to results of research experiences conducted at the University of Bologna.

  14. The Pedagogical Reflection Model - an educational perspective on clinical decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Voergaard Poulsen, Bettina; Vibholm Persson, Stine; Skriver, Mette

    Clinical decision-making is important in patient-centred nursing, which is known in nursing education and research (1) The Pedagogical Reflection Model (PRM) can provide a framework that supports students’ decision-making in patient-specific situations. PRM is based on the assumption that clinical......) The aims of this study were to explore how nurse students and clinical supervisors use PRM as method to reflect before, during and after PRM guidance in relation to clinical decisions in the first year of clinical practice...... decision-making needs to take into account; 1) clinical experiences, 2) the perspective of the patient, 3) clinical observations and investigations, 4) knowledge about patients experiences of being a patient and ill, 5) medical knowledge about diseases, and 6) the organizational framework (2,3,4)(Figure 1...

  15. A review of recent research on improvement of physical parameterizations in the GLA GCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sud, Y. C.; Walker, G. K.

    1990-01-01

    A systematic assessment of the effect of a series of improvements in physical parameterizations of the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) general circulation model (GCM) are summarized. The implementation of the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB) in the GCM is followed by a comparison of SiB GCM simulations with that of the earlier slab soil hydrology GCM (SSH-GCM) simulations. In the Sahelian context, the biogeophysical component of desertification was analyzed for SiB-GCM simulations. Cumulus parameterization is found to be the primary determinant of the organization of the simulated tropical rainfall of the GLA GCM using Arakawa-Schubert cumulus parameterization. A comparison of model simulations with station data revealed excessive shortwave radiation accompanied by excessive drying and heating to the land. The perpetual July simulations with and without interactive soil moisture shows that 30 to 40 day oscillations may be a natural mode of the simulated earth atmosphere system.

  16. Systematic Parameterization of Lignin for the CHARMM Force Field

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vermaas, Joshua; Petridis, Loukas; Beckham, Gregg; Crowley, Michael

    2017-07-06

    Plant cell walls have three primary components, cellulose, hemicellulose, and lignin, the latter of which is a recalcitrant, aromatic heteropolymer that provides structure to plants, water and nutrient transport through plant tissues, and a highly effective defense against pathogens. Overcoming the recalcitrance of lignin is key to effective biomass deconstruction, which would in turn enable the use of biomass as a feedstock for industrial processes. Our understanding of lignin structure in the plant cell wall is hampered by the limitations of the available lignin forcefields, which currently only account for a single linkage between lignins and lack explicit parameterization for emerging lignin structures both from natural variants and engineered lignin structures. Since polymerization of lignin occurs via radical intermediates, multiple C-O and C-C linkages have been isolated , and the current force field only represents a small subset of lignin the diverse lignin structures found in plants. In order to take into account the wide range of lignin polymerization chemistries, monomers and dimer combinations of C-, H-, G-, and S-lignins as well as with hydroxycinnamic acid linkages were subjected to extensive quantum mechanical calculations to establish target data from which to build a complete molecular mechanics force field tuned specifically for diverse lignins. This was carried out in a GPU-accelerated global optimization process, whereby all molecules were parameterized simultaneously using the same internal parameter set. By parameterizing lignin specifically, we are able to more accurately represent the interactions and conformations of lignin monomers and dimers relative to a general force field. This new force field will enables computational researchers to study the effects of different linkages on the structure of lignin, as well as construct more accurate plant cell wall models based on observed statistical distributions of lignin that differ between

  17. The parameterization of microchannel-plate-based detection systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gershman, Daniel J.; Gliese, Ulrik; Dorelli, John C.; Avanov, Levon A.; Barrie, Alexander C.; Chornay, Dennis J.; MacDonald, Elizabeth A.; Holland, Matthew P.; Giles, Barbara L.; Pollock, Craig J.

    2016-10-01

    The most common instrument for low-energy plasmas consists of a top-hat electrostatic analyzer (ESA) geometry coupled with a microchannel-plate-based (MCP-based) detection system. While the electrostatic optics for such sensors are readily simulated and parameterized during the laboratory calibration process, the detection system is often less well characterized. Here we develop a comprehensive mathematical description of particle detection systems. As a function of instrument azimuthal angle, we parameterize (1) particle scattering within the ESA and at the surface of the MCP, (2) the probability distribution of MCP gain for an incident particle, (3) electron charge cloud spreading between the MCP and anode board, and (4) capacitive coupling between adjacent discrete anodes. Using the Dual Electron Spectrometers on the Fast Plasma Investigation on NASA's Magnetospheric Multiscale mission as an example, we demonstrate a method for extracting these fundamental detection system parameters from laboratory calibration. We further show that parameters that will evolve in flight, namely, MCP gain, can be determined through application of this model to specifically tailored in-flight calibration activities. This methodology provides a robust characterization of sensor suite performance throughout mission lifetime. The model developed in this work is not only applicable to existing sensors but also can be used as an analytical design tool for future particle instrumentation.

  18. Impact of cloud parameterization on the numerical simulation of a super cyclone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deshpande, M.S.; Pattnaik, S.; Salvekar, P.S. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India)

    2012-07-01

    This study examines the role of parameterization of convection and explicit moisture processes on the simulated track, intensity and inner core structure of Orissa super cyclone (1999) in Bay of Bengal (north Indian Ocean). Sensitivity experiments are carried out to examine the impact of cumulus parameterization schemes (CPS) using MM5 model (Version 3.7) in a two-way nested domain (D1 and D2) configuration at horizontal resolutions (45-15 km). Three different cumulus parameterization schemes, namely Grell (Gr), Betts-Miller (BM) and updated Kain Fritsch (KF2), are tested. It is noted that track and intensity both are very sensitive to CPS and comparatively, KF2 predicts them reasonably well. Particularly, the rapid intensification phase of the super cyclone is best simulated by KF2 compared to other CPS. To examine the effect of the cumulus parameterization scheme at high resolution (5 km), the three-domain configuration (45-15-5 km resolution) is utilized. Based on initial results, KF2 scheme is used for both the domains (D1 and D2). Two experiments are conducted: one in which KF2 is used as CPS and another in which no CPS is used in the third domain. The intensity is well predicted when no CPS is used in the innermost domain. The sensitivity experiments are also carried out to examine the impact from microphysics parameterization schemes (MPS). Four cloud microphysics parameterization schemes, namely mixed phase (MP), Goddard microphysics with Graupel (GG), Reisner Graupel (RG) and Schultz (Sc), are tested in these experiments. It is noted that the tropical cyclone tracks and intensity variation have considerable sensitivity to the varying cloud microphysical parameterization schemes. The MPS of MP and Sc could very well capture the rapid intensification phase. The final intensity is well predicted by MP, which is overestimated by Sc. The MPS of GG and RG underestimates the intensity. (orig.)

  19. Perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kussmann, Martin; Morine, Melissa J; Hager, Jörg

    2013-01-01

    We review here the status of human type 2 diabetes studies from a genetic, epidemiological, and clinical (intervention) perspective. Most studies limit analyses to one or a few omic technologies providing data of components of physiological processes. Since all chronic diseases are multifactorial...... at different time points along this longitudinal investigation are performed with a comprehensive set of omics platforms. These data sets are generated in a biological context, rather than biochemical compound class-driven manner, which we term "systems omics."...

  20. Parameterizing the competition between homogeneous and heterogeneous freezing in ice cloud formation – polydisperse ice nuclei

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Barahona

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available This study presents a comprehensive ice cloud formation parameterization that computes the ice crystal number, size distribution, and maximum supersaturation from precursor aerosol and ice nuclei. The parameterization provides an analytical solution of the cloud parcel model equations and accounts for the competition effects between homogeneous and heterogeneous freezing, and, between heterogeneous freezing in different modes. The diversity of heterogeneous nuclei is described through a nucleation spectrum function which is allowed to follow any form (i.e., derived from classical nucleation theory or from observations. The parameterization reproduces the predictions of a detailed numerical parcel model over a wide range of conditions, and several expressions for the nucleation spectrum. The average error in ice crystal number concentration was −2.0±8.5% for conditions of pure heterogeneous freezing, and, 4.7±21% when both homogeneous and heterogeneous freezing were active. The formulation presented is fast and free from requirements of numerical integration.

  1. Clustering of European winter storms: A multi-model perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renggli, Dominik; Buettner, Annemarie; Scherb, Anke; Straub, Daniel; Zimmerli, Peter

    2016-04-01

    The storm series over Europe in 1990 (Daria, Vivian, Wiebke, Herta) and 1999 (Anatol, Lothar, Martin) are very well known. Such clusters of severe events strongly affect the seasonally accumulated damage statistics. The (re)insurance industry has quantified clustering by using distribution assumptions deduced from the historical storm activity of the last 30 to 40 years. The use of storm series simulated by climate models has only started recently. Climate model runs can potentially represent 100s to 1000s of years, allowing a more detailed quantification of clustering than the history of the last few decades. However, it is unknown how sensitive the representation of clustering is to systematic biases. Using a multi-model ensemble allows quantifying that uncertainty. This work uses CMIP5 decadal ensemble hindcasts to study clustering of European winter storms from a multi-model perspective. An objective identification algorithm extracts winter storms (September to April) in the gridded 6-hourly wind data. Since the skill of European storm predictions is very limited on the decadal scale, the different hindcast runs are interpreted as independent realizations. As a consequence, the available hindcast ensemble represents several 1000 simulated storm seasons. The seasonal clustering of winter storms is quantified using the dispersion coefficient. The benchmark for the decadal prediction models is the 20th Century Reanalysis. The decadal prediction models are able to reproduce typical features of the clustering characteristics observed in the reanalysis data. Clustering occurs in all analyzed models over the North Atlantic and European region, in particular over Great Britain and Scandinavia as well as over Iberia (i.e. the exit regions of the North Atlantic storm track). Clustering is generally weaker in the models compared to reanalysis, although the differences between different models are substantial. In contrast to existing studies, clustering is driven by weak

  2. A general framework for thermodynamically consistent parameterization and efficient sampling of enzymatic reactions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Saa

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Kinetic models provide the means to understand and predict the dynamic behaviour of enzymes upon different perturbations. Despite their obvious advantages, classical parameterizations require large amounts of data to fit their parameters. Particularly, enzymes displaying complex reaction and regulatory (allosteric mechanisms require a great number of parameters and are therefore often represented by approximate formulae, thereby facilitating the fitting but ignoring many real kinetic behaviours. Here, we show that full exploration of the plausible kinetic space for any enzyme can be achieved using sampling strategies provided a thermodynamically feasible parameterization is used. To this end, we developed a General Reaction Assembly and Sampling Platform (GRASP capable of consistently parameterizing and sampling accurate kinetic models using minimal reference data. The former integrates the generalized MWC model and the elementary reaction formalism. By formulating the appropriate thermodynamic constraints, our framework enables parameterization of any oligomeric enzyme kinetics without sacrificing complexity or using simplifying assumptions. This thermodynamically safe parameterization relies on the definition of a reference state upon which feasible parameter sets can be efficiently sampled. Uniform sampling of the kinetics space enabled dissecting enzyme catalysis and revealing the impact of thermodynamics on reaction kinetics. Our analysis distinguished three reaction elasticity regions for common biochemical reactions: a steep linear region (0> ΔGr >-2 kJ/mol, a transition region (-2> ΔGr >-20 kJ/mol and a constant elasticity region (ΔGr <-20 kJ/mol. We also applied this framework to model more complex kinetic behaviours such as the monomeric cooperativity of the mammalian glucokinase and the ultrasensitive response of the phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase of Escherichia coli. In both cases, our approach described appropriately not only

  3. A Solar Radiation Parameterization for Atmospheric Studies. Volume 15

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Ming-Dah; Suarez, Max J. (Editor)

    1999-01-01

    The solar radiation parameterization (CLIRAD-SW) developed at the Goddard Climate and Radiation Branch for application to atmospheric models are described. It includes the absorption by water vapor, O3, O2, CO2, clouds, and aerosols and the scattering by clouds, aerosols, and gases. Depending upon the nature of absorption, different approaches are applied to different absorbers. In the ultraviolet and visible regions, the spectrum is divided into 8 bands, and single O3 absorption coefficient and Rayleigh scattering coefficient are used for each band. In the infrared, the spectrum is divided into 3 bands, and the k-distribution method is applied for water vapor absorption. The flux reduction due to O2 is derived from a simple function, while the flux reduction due to CO2 is derived from precomputed tables. Cloud single-scattering properties are parameterized, separately for liquid drops and ice, as functions of water amount and effective particle size. A maximum-random approximation is adopted for the overlapping of clouds at different heights. Fluxes are computed using the Delta-Eddington approximation.

  4. Parameterization of ionization rate by auroral electron precipitation in Jupiter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Hiraki

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available We simulate auroral electron precipitation into the Jovian atmosphere in which electron multi-directional scattering and energy degradation processes are treated exactly with a Monte Carlo technique. We make a parameterization of the calculated ionization rate of the neutral gas by electron impact in a similar way as used for the Earth's aurora. Our method allows the altitude distribution of the ionization rate to be obtained as a function of an arbitrary initial energy spectrum in the range of 1–200 keV. It also includes incident angle dependence and an arbitrary density distribution of molecular hydrogen. We show that there is little dependence of the estimated ionospheric conductance on atomic species such as H and He. We compare our results with those of recent studies with different electron transport schemes by adapting our parameterization to their atmospheric conditions. We discuss the intrinsic problem of their simplified assumption. The ionospheric conductance, which is important for Jupiter's magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling system, is estimated to vary by a factor depending on the electron energy spectrum based on recent observation and modeling. We discuss this difference through the relation with field-aligned current and electron spectrum.

  5. Parameterization of ionization rate by auroral electron precipitation in Jupiter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Hiraki

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available We simulate auroral electron precipitation into the Jovian atmosphere in which electron multi-directional scattering and energy degradation processes are treated exactly with a Monte Carlo technique. We make a parameterization of the calculated ionization rate of the neutral gas by electron impact in a similar way as used for the Earth's aurora. Our method allows the altitude distribution of the ionization rate to be obtained as a function of an arbitrary initial energy spectrum in the range of 1–200 keV. It also includes incident angle dependence and an arbitrary density distribution of molecular hydrogen. We show that there is little dependence of the estimated ionospheric conductance on atomic species such as H and He. We compare our results with those of recent studies with different electron transport schemes by adapting our parameterization to their atmospheric conditions. We discuss the intrinsic problem of their simplified assumption. The ionospheric conductance, which is important for Jupiter's magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling system, is estimated to vary by a factor depending on the electron energy spectrum based on recent observation and modeling. We discuss this difference through the relation with field-aligned current and electron spectrum.

  6. A simple parameterization of aerosol emissions in RAMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Letcher, Theodore

    Throughout the past decade, a high degree of attention has been focused on determining the microphysical impact of anthropogenically enhanced concentrations of Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) on orographic snowfall in the mountains of the western United States. This area has garnered a lot of attention due to the implications this effect may have on local water resource distribution within the Region. Recent advances in computing power and the development of highly advanced microphysical schemes within numerical models have provided an estimation of the sensitivity that orographic snowfall has to changes in atmospheric CCN concentrations. However, what is still lacking is a coupling between these advanced microphysical schemes and a real-world representation of CCN sources. Previously, an attempt to representation the heterogeneous evolution of aerosol was made by coupling three-dimensional aerosol output from the WRF Chemistry model to the Colorado State University (CSU) Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) (Ward et al. 2011). The biggest problem associated with this scheme was the computational expense. In fact, the computational expense associated with this scheme was so high, that it was prohibitive for simulations with fine enough resolution to accurately represent microphysical processes. To improve upon this method, a new parameterization for aerosol emission was developed in such a way that it was fully contained within RAMS. Several assumptions went into generating a computationally efficient aerosol emissions parameterization in RAMS. The most notable assumption was the decision to neglect the chemical processes in formed in the formation of Secondary Aerosol (SA), and instead treat SA as primary aerosol via short-term WRF-CHEM simulations. While, SA makes up a substantial portion of the total aerosol burden (much of which is made up of organic material), the representation of this process is highly complex and highly expensive within a numerical

  7. Are Universities Role Models for Communities? A Gender Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felicia Cornelia MACARIE

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The present paper explores the degree in which universities could/should serve as role models for communities from the perspective of gender integration. Although the theoretical/ moral answer would be affirmative (universities should be in such a position that would allow local communities to regard them as role models of gender integration, the primary empirical analysis leads to another conclusion. A brief theoretical review (that connects gender discrimination, sustainable development, universities and local communities is followed by an empirical analysis that compares the management structures of 12 Romanian Universities of Advanced Research and Education (the best Romanian universities according to a national ranking with those of four local communities where they are located (as geographic proximity would lead to a better diffusion of best practices. Contrary to initial expectations, even in higher education institutions, women are underrepresented both in executive and legislative positions. Since universities are subject to the same major patterns of gender discrimination (such as role theory, glass ceiling and glass elevator as private and public organizations, they lose the moral high ground that theory would suggest. However, medicine and pharmacy universities that can be connected with the traditional roles attributed to women provide better gender integration, but glass escalator phenomena remain present even in these limited fields.

  8. A Practitioners’ Perspective on Developmental Models, Metrics and Community

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chad Stewart

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available This article builds on a paper by Stein and Heikkinen (2009, and suggestsways to expand and improve our measurement of the quality of the developmentalmodels, metrics and instruments and the results we get in collaborating with clients. Wesuggest that this dialogue needs to be about more than stage development measured by(even calibrated stage development-focused, linguistic-based, developmental psychologymetrics that produce lead indicators and are shown to be reliable and valid bypsychometric qualities alone. The article first provides a brief overview of ourbackground and biases, and an applied version of Ken Wilber’s Integral OperatingSystem that has provided increased development, client satisfaction, and contribution toour communities measured by verifiable, tangible results (as well as intangible resultssuch as increased ability to cope with complex surroundings, reduced stress and growthin developmental stages to better fit to the environment in which our clients wereengaged at that time. It then addresses four key points raised by Stein and Heikkinen(need for quality control, defining and deciding on appropriate metrics, building a systemto evaluate models and metrics, and clarifying and increasing the reliability and validityof the models and metrics we use by providing initial concrete steps to:• Adopt a systemic value-chain approach• Measure results in addition to language• Build on the evaluation system for instruments, models and metrics suggested byStein & Heikkinen• Clarify and improve the reliability and validity of the instruments, models andmetrics we useWe complete the article with an echoing call for the community of AppliedDevelopmental Theory suggested by Ross (2008 and Stein and Heikkinen, a briefdescription of that community (from our perspective, and a table that builds on Table 2proposed by Stein and Heikkinen.

  9. Sensitivity of tropical cyclone simulations to microphysics parameterizations in WRF

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reshmi Mohan, P.; Srinivas, C.V.; Bhaskaran, R.; Venkatraman, B.; Yesubabu, V.

    2018-01-01

    Tropical cyclones (TC) cause storm surge along coastal areas where these storms cross the coast. As major nuclear facilities are usually installed in coastal region, the surge predictions are highly important for DAE. The critical TC parameters needed in estimating storm surge are intensity (winds, central pressure and radius of maximum winds) and storm tracks. The predictions with numerical models are generally made by representing the clouds and precipitation processes using convective and microphysics parameterization. At high spatial resolutions (1-3Km) microphysics can act as cloud resolving NWP model to explicitly resolve the convective precipitation without using convection schemes. Recent simulation studies using WRF on severe weather phenomena such as thunderstorms and hurricanes indicated large sensitivity of predicted rainfall and hurricane tracks to microphysics due to variation in temperature and pressure gradients which generate winds that determine the storm track. In the present study the sensitivity of tropical cyclone tracks and intensity to different microphysics schemes has been conducted

  10. Examining Chaotic Convection with Super-Parameterization Ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Todd R.

    This study investigates a variety of features present in a new configuration of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) variant, SP-CAM 2.0. The new configuration (multiple-parameterization-CAM, MP-CAM) changes the manner in which the super-parameterization (SP) concept represents physical tendency feedbacks to the large-scale by using the mean of 10 independent two-dimensional cloud-permitting model (CPM) curtains in each global model column instead of the conventional single CPM curtain. The climates of the SP and MP configurations are examined to investigate any significant differences caused by the application of convective physical tendencies that are more deterministic in nature, paying particular attention to extreme precipitation events and large-scale weather systems, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). A number of small but significant changes in the mean state climate are uncovered, and it is found that the new formulation degrades MJO performance. Despite these deficiencies, the ensemble of possible realizations of convective states in the MP configuration allows for analysis of uncertainty in the small-scale solution, lending to examination of those weather regimes and physical mechanisms associated with strong, chaotic convection. Methods of quantifying precipitation predictability are explored, and use of the most reliable of these leads to the conclusion that poor precipitation predictability is most directly related to the proximity of the global climate model column state to atmospheric critical points. Secondarily, the predictability is tied to the availability of potential convective energy, the presence of mesoscale convective organization on the CPM grid, and the directive power of the large-scale.

  11. Boundary layer parameterizations and long-range transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Irwin, J.S.

    1992-01-01

    A joint work group between the American Meteorological Society (AMS) and the EPA is perusing the construction of an air quality model that incorporates boundary layer parameterizations of dispersion and transport. This model could replace the currently accepted model, the Industrial Source Complex (ISC) model. The ISC model is a Gaussian-plume multiple point-source model that provides for consideration of fugitive emissions, aerodynamic wake effects, gravitational settling and dry deposition. A work group of several Federal and State agencies is perusing the construction of an air quality modeling system for use in assessing and tracking visibility impairment resulting from long-range transport of pollutants. The modeling system is designed to use the hourly vertical profiles of wind, temperature and moisture resulting from a mesoscale meteorological processor that employs four dimensional data assimilation (FDDA). FDDA involves adding forcing functions to the governing model equations to gradually ''nudge'' the model state toward the observations (12-hourly upper air observations of wind, temperature and moisture, and 3-hourly surface observations of wind and moisture). In this way it is possible to generate data sets whose accuracy, in terms of transport, precipitation, and dynamic consistency is superior to both direct interpolation of synoptic-scale analyses of observations and purely predictive mode model result. (AB) ( 19 refs.)

  12. Quantitative Model for Supply Chain Visibility: Process Capability Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youngsu Lee

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Currently, the intensity of enterprise competition has increased as a result of a greater diversity of customer needs as well as the persistence of a long-term recession. The results of competition are becoming severe enough to determine the survival of company. To survive global competition, each firm must focus on achieving innovation excellence and operational excellence as core competency for sustainable competitive advantage. Supply chain management is now regarded as one of the most effective innovation initiatives to achieve operational excellence, and its importance has become ever more apparent. However, few companies effectively manage their supply chains, and the greatest difficulty is in achieving supply chain visibility. Many companies still suffer from a lack of visibility, and in spite of extensive research and the availability of modern technologies, the concepts and quantification methods to increase supply chain visibility are still ambiguous. Based on the extant researches in supply chain visibility, this study proposes an extended visibility concept focusing on a process capability perspective and suggests a more quantitative model using Z score in Six Sigma methodology to evaluate and improve the level of supply chain visibility.

  13. Perspectives on model forecasts of the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chowell, Gerardo; Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone

    2017-01-01

    The unprecedented impact and modeling efforts associated with the 2014–2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa provides a unique opportunity to document the performances and caveats of forecasting approaches used in near-real time for generating evidence and to guide policy. A number of international...... academic groups have developed and parameterized mathematical models of disease spread to forecast the trajectory of the outbreak. These modeling efforts often relied on limited epidemiological data to derive key transmission and severity parameters, which are needed to calibrate mechanistic models. Here...... changes and case clustering; (3) challenges in forecasting the long-term epidemic impact very early in the outbreak; and (4) ways to move forward. We conclude that rapid availability of aggregated population-level data and detailed information on a subset of transmission chains is crucial to characterize...

  14. Perspective: A new model of leadership performance in health care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souba, Wiley

    2011-10-01

    Current leadership models are based largely on concepts and explanations, which provide limited access to the being and actions of an effective leader in health care. Rather than teaching leadership from a theoretical vantage point, the ontological perspective teaches leadership as it is lived and experienced. When one exercises leadership "as lived," concurrently informed by theories, one performs at one's best. A distinctive feature of the ontological approach resides in its capacity to disclose human ways of being and acting that limit our freedom to lead effectively as our natural self-expression. Ontological leadership maintains that our worldviews and mental maps affect the way we lead and are shaped by and accessible through language--hence, to lead more effectively, mastery of a new conversational domain of leadership is required. This emerging model of leadership performance reveals that (1) our actions as leaders are correlated with the way in which the leadership situation we are dealing with occurs for us, and (2) this "occurring" is shaped by the context we bring to that situation. Master leaders use language to recontextualize their leadership challenges so that their naturally correlated ways of being and acting can emerge, resulting in effective leadership. When leaders linguistically unveil limiting contexts, they are freed up to create new contexts that shift the way leadership challenges occur for them. This provides leaders--physicians, scientists, educators, executives--with new opportunity sets (previously unavailable) for exercising exemplary leadership. The ontological approach to leadership offers a powerful framework for tackling health care's toughest challenges.

  15. Parameterization of MARVELS Spectra Using Deep Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilda, Sankalp; Ge, Jian; MARVELS

    2018-01-01

    Like many large-scale surveys, the Multi-Object APO Radial Velocity Exoplanet Large-area Survey (MARVELS) was designed to operate at a moderate spectral resolution ($\\sim$12,000) for efficiency in observing large samples, which makes the stellar parameterization difficult due to the high degree of blending of spectral features. Two extant solutions to deal with this issue are to utilize spectral synthesis, and to utilize spectral indices [Ghezzi et al. 2014]. While the former is a powerful and tested technique, it can often yield strongly coupled atmospheric parameters, and often requires high spectral resolution (Valenti & Piskunov 1996). The latter, though a promising technique utilizing measurements of equivalent widths of spectral indices, has only been employed with respect to FKG dwarfs and sub-giants and not red-giant branch stars, which constitute ~30% of MARVELS targets. In this work, we tackle this problem using a convolution neural network (CNN). In particular, we train a one-dimensional CNN on appropriately processed PHOENIX synthetic spectra using supervised training to automatically distinguish the features relevant for the determination of each of the three atmospheric parameters – T_eff, log(g), [Fe/H] – and use the knowledge thus gained by the network to parameterize 849 MARVELS giants. When tested on the synthetic spectra themselves, our estimates of the parameters were consistent to within 11 K, .02 dex, and .02 dex (in terms of mean absolute errors), respectively. For MARVELS dwarfs, the accuracies are 80K, .16 dex and .10 dex, respectively.

  16. Mechanisms of diurnal precipitation over the US Great Plains: a cloud resolving model perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Myong-In; Choi, Ildae; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Kang, In-Sik

    2010-02-01

    The mechanisms of summertime diurnal precipitation in the US Great Plains were examined with the two-dimensional (2D) Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud-resolving model (CRM). The model was constrained by the observed large-scale background state and surface flux derived from the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program’s Intensive Observing Period (IOP) data at the Southern Great Plains (SGP). The model, when continuously-forced by realistic surface flux and large-scale advection, simulates reasonably well the temporal evolution of the observed rainfall episodes, particularly for the strongly forced precipitation events. However, the model exhibits a deficiency for the weakly forced events driven by diurnal convection. Additional tests were run with the GCE model in order to discriminate between the mechanisms that determine daytime and nighttime convection. In these tests, the model was constrained with the same repeating diurnal variation in the large-scale advection and/or surface flux. The results indicate that it is primarily the surface heat and moisture flux that is responsible for the development of deep convection in the afternoon, whereas the large-scale upward motion and associated moisture advection play an important role in preconditioning nocturnal convection. In the nighttime, high clouds are continuously built up through their interaction and feedback with long-wave radiation, eventually initiating deep convection from the boundary layer. Without these upper-level destabilization processes, the model tends to produce only daytime convection in response to boundary layer heating. This study suggests that the correct simulation of the diurnal variation in precipitation requires that the free-atmospheric destabilization mechanisms resolved in the CRM simulation must be adequately parameterized in current general circulation models (GCMs) many of which are overly sensitive to the parameterized boundary layer

  17. Ocean's response to Hurricane Frances and its implications for drag coefficient parameterization at high wind speeds

    KAUST Repository

    Zedler, S. E.

    2009-04-25

    The drag coefficient parameterization of wind stress is investigated for tropical storm conditions using model sensitivity studies. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Ocean General Circulation Model was run in a regional setting with realistic stratification and forcing fields representing Hurricane Frances, which in early September 2004 passed east of the Caribbean Leeward Island chain. The model was forced with a NOAA-HWIND wind speed product after converting it to wind stress using four different drag coefficient parameterizations. Respective model results were tested against in situ measurements of temperature profiles and velocity, available from an array of 22 surface drifters and 12 subsurface floats. Changing the drag coefficient parameterization from one that saturated at a value of 2.3 × 10 -3 to a constant drag coefficient of 1.2 × 10-3 reduced the standard deviation difference between the simulated minus the measured sea surface temperature change from 0.8°C to 0.3°C. Additionally, the standard deviation in the difference between simulated minus measured high pass filtered 15-m current speed reduced from 15 cm/s to 5 cm/s. The maximum difference in sea surface temperature response when two different turbulent mixing parameterizations were implemented was 0.3°C, i.e., only 11% of the maximum change of sea surface temperature caused by the storm. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  18. Inclusion of Solar Elevation Angle in Land Surface Albedo Parameterization Over Bare Soil Surface.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Zhiyuan; Wei, Zhigang; Wen, Zhiping; Dong, Wenjie; Li, Zhenchao; Wen, Xiaohang; Zhu, Xian; Ji, Dong; Chen, Chen; Yan, Dongdong

    2017-12-01

    Land surface albedo is a significant parameter for maintaining a balance in surface energy. It is also an important parameter of bare soil surface albedo for developing land surface process models that accurately reflect diurnal variation characteristics and the mechanism behind the solar spectral radiation albedo on bare soil surfaces and for understanding the relationships between climate factors and spectral radiation albedo. Using a data set of field observations, we conducted experiments to analyze the variation characteristics of land surface solar spectral radiation and the corresponding albedo over a typical Gobi bare soil underlying surface and to investigate the relationships between the land surface solar spectral radiation albedo, solar elevation angle, and soil moisture. Based on both solar elevation angle and soil moisture measurements simultaneously, we propose a new two-factor parameterization scheme for spectral radiation albedo over bare soil underlying surfaces. The results of numerical simulation experiments show that the new parameterization scheme can more accurately depict the diurnal variation characteristics of bare soil surface albedo than the previous schemes. Solar elevation angle is one of the most important factors for parameterizing bare soil surface albedo and must be considered in the parameterization scheme, especially in arid and semiarid areas with low soil moisture content. This study reveals the characteristics and mechanism of the diurnal variation of bare soil surface solar spectral radiation albedo and is helpful in developing land surface process models, weather models, and climate models.

  19. The possibilities of a modelling perspective for school mathematics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dirk Wessels

    2009-09-01

    complex teaching methodology requires in-depth thinking about the role of the teacher, the role of the learner, the nature of the classroom culture, the nature of the negotiation of meaning between the teacher and individuals or groups, the nature of selected problems and material, as well as the kind of integrative assessment used in the mathematics classroom. Modelling is closely related to the problem-centred teaching approach, but it also smoothly relates to bigger and longer mathematical tasks. This article gives a theoretical exposition of the scope and depth of mathematical modelling. It is possible to introduce modelling at every school phase in our educational sytem. Modelling in school mathematics seems to make the learning of mathematics more effective. The mastering of problem solving and modelling strategies has definitely changed the orientation, the competencies and performances of learners at each school level. It would appear from research that learners like the application side of mathematics and that they want to see it in action. Genuine real life problems should be selected, which is why a modelling perspective is so important for the teaching and mastering of mathematics. Modelling should be integrated into the present curriculum because learners will then get full access to involvement in the classroom, to mathematisation, to doing problems, to criticising arguments, to finding proofs, to recognising concepts and to obtaining the ability to abstract these from the realistic situation. Modelling should be given a full opportunity in mathematics teacher education so that our learners can get the full benefit of it. This will put the mathematical performances of learners in our country on a more solid base, which will make our learners more competitive at all levels in the future. 

  20. A unified spectral parameterization for wave breaking: From the deep ocean to the surf zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filipot, J.-F.; Ardhuin, F.

    2012-11-01

    A new wave-breaking dissipation parameterization designed for phase-averaged spectral wave models is presented. It combines wave breaking basic physical quantities, namely, the breaking probability and the dissipation rate per unit area. The energy lost by waves is first explicitly calculated in physical space before being distributed over the relevant spectral components. The transition from deep to shallow water is made possible by using a dissipation rate per unit area of breaking waves that varies with the wave height, wavelength and water depth. This parameterization is implemented in the WAVEWATCH III modeling framework, which is applied to a wide range of conditions and scales, from the global ocean to the beach scale. Wave height, peak and mean periods, and spectral data are validated using in situ and remote sensing data. Model errors are comparable to those of other specialized deep or shallow water parameterizations. This work shows that it is possible to have a seamless parameterization from the deep ocean to the surf zone.

  1. Toward a Theoretical Model of Employee Turnover: A Human Resource Development Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Shari L.

    2004-01-01

    This article sets forth the Organizational Model of Employee Persistence, influenced by traditional turnover models and a student attrition model. The model was developed to clarify the impact of organizational practices on employee turnover from a human resource development (HRD) perspective and provide a theoretical foundation for research on…

  2. Impact of different parameterization schemes on simulation of mesoscale convective system over south-east India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madhulatha, A.; Rajeevan, M.

    2018-02-01

    Main objective of the present paper is to examine the role of various parameterization schemes in simulating the evolution of mesoscale convective system (MCS) occurred over south-east India. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, numerical experiments are conducted by considering various planetary boundary layer, microphysics, and cumulus parameterization schemes. Performances of different schemes are evaluated by examining boundary layer, reflectivity, and precipitation features of MCS using ground-based and satellite observations. Among various physical parameterization schemes, Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) boundary layer scheme is able to produce deep boundary layer height by simulating warm temperatures necessary for storm initiation; Thompson (THM) microphysics scheme is capable to simulate the reflectivity by reasonable distribution of different hydrometeors during various stages of system; Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ) cumulus scheme is able to capture the precipitation by proper representation of convective instability associated with MCS. Present analysis suggests that MYJ, a local turbulent kinetic energy boundary layer scheme, which accounts strong vertical mixing; THM, a six-class hybrid moment microphysics scheme, which considers number concentration along with mixing ratio of rain hydrometeors; and BMJ, a closure cumulus scheme, which adjusts thermodynamic profiles based on climatological profiles might have contributed for better performance of respective model simulations. Numerical simulation carried out using the above combination of schemes is able to capture storm initiation, propagation, surface variations, thermodynamic structure, and precipitation features reasonably well. This study clearly demonstrates that the simulation of MCS characteristics is highly sensitive to the choice of parameterization schemes.

  3. Modeling CCN effects on tropical convection: An statistical perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrio, G. G.; Cotton, W. R.; Massie, S. T.

    2012-12-01

    This modeling study examines the response of tropical convection to the enhancement of CCN concentrations from a statistical perspective. The sensitivity runs were performed using RAMS version 6.0, covering almost the entire Amazonian Aerosol Characterization Experiment period (AMAZE, wet season of 2008). The main focus of the analysis was the indirect aerosol effects on the probability density functions (PDFs) of various cloud properties. RAMS was configured to work with four two-way interactive nested grids with 42 vertical levels and horizontal grid spacing of 150, 37.5, 7.5, and 1.5 km. Grids 2 and 3 were used to simulate the synoptic and mesoscale environments, while grid 4 was used to resolve deep convection. Comparisons were made using the finest grid with a domain size of 300 X 300km, approximately centered on the city of Manaus (3.1S, 60.01W). The vertical grid was stretched using with 75m spacing at the finest levels to provide better resolution within the first 1.5 km, and the model top extended to approximately 22 km above ground level. RAMS was initialized on February 10 2008 (00:00 UTC), the length of simulations was 32 days, and GSF data were used for initialization and nudging of the coarser-grid boundaries. The control run considered a CCN concentration of 300cm-3 while other several other simulations considered an influx of higher CCN concentrations (up to 1300/cc) . The latter concentration was observed near the end of the AMAZE project period. Both direct and indirect effects of these CCN particles were considered. Model output data (finest grid) every 15 min were used to compute the PDFs for each model level. When increasing aerosol concentrations, significant impacts were simulated for the PDFs of the water contents of various hydrometeors, vertical motions, area with precipitation, latent heat releases, among other quantities. In most cases, they exhibited a peculiar non-monotonic response similar to that seen in two previous studies of ours

  4. Therapists' Perspectives on Suicide: A Conceptual Model of Connectedness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aherne, Cian; Coughlan, Barry; Surgenor, Paul

    2017-08-03

    A sense of disconnection for people who are suicidal seems to be a key construct of previous literature. Therapists' ways of encountering and understanding people who are suicidal have not been previously researched in depth using qualitative methodologies. The current study aims to develop a theoretical framework for the role played by connectedness in relation to suicide based on the perspectives of psychotherapists working in the field of suicide intervention. Psychotherapists (N = 12) from a suicide intervention service in Ireland were interviewed in relation to connectedness and suicide. The interviews were analysed using Constructivist Grounded Theory. A tentative theoretical model for connectedness in relation to suicide was developed. Therapists view self-disconnect as at the core of suicidality and note that toxic relationships also play a critical role. Therapeutic connection can present as a life-saving paradox for people who are suicidal. Risk of death and therapeutic endeavour may present as challenging dynamics for working with people who are suicidal. Some discussion points include the worth of self-compassion development for people who are suicidal, the rephrasing of "psychotherapy" when trying to save someone's life and the emphasis on relationship skills for all healthcare professionals who encounter people who are suicidal. Clinical or methodological significance of this article: This article is one of the first in which therapists are interviewed about their understandings of suicide and the processes of suicide in the therapeutic space. It offers novel insights about how people who are suicidal present in therapy and what may be contributing to this presentation. The research also gives insights on the struggles for therapists working with people who are suicidal and who may be ambiguous about the prospect of therapy and connecting. The study also offers important direction for future studies in relation to what requires further discussion

  5. Perspectives

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Unknown

    I draw attention to the perceptions of and interactions between molecular biologists and scientists engaged in plant breeding in India, ..... needed on the other hand is a demand-pull model of tech- ..... holdings constitute the majority), risk-bearing capacity, ... Flexible networks of actors – the private sector, scientists, farmers ...

  6. Perspectives

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Prakash

    of surgery – a surgeon is more than an operator, does more ... the role of secondary hyperaldosteronism in the perpetuation of cirrhotic ... a canine model of experimental ascites and wrote my thesis ... us to spot this syndrome in Chandigarh and hold discussions ... heparin (GBH) surface owed its thrombo resistance to the.

  7. A Feedback Learning and Mental Models Perspective on Strategic Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capelo, Carlos; Dias, Joao Ferreira

    2009-01-01

    This study aims to be a contribution to a theoretical model that explains the effectiveness of the learning and decision-making processes by means of a feedback and mental models perspective. With appropriate mental models, managers should be able to improve their capacity to deal with dynamically complex contexts, in order to achieve long-term…

  8. GHI calculation sensitivity on microphysics, land- and cumulus parameterization in WRF over the Reunion Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Meij, A.; Vinuesa, J.-F.; Maupas, V.

    2018-05-01

    The sensitivity of different microphysics and dynamics schemes on calculated global horizontal irradiation (GHI) values in the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model is studied. 13 sensitivity simulations were performed for which the microphysics, cumulus parameterization schemes and land surface models were changed. Firstly we evaluated the model's performance by comparing calculated GHI values for the Base Case with observations for the Reunion Island for 2014. In general, the model calculates the largest bias during the austral summer. This indicates that the model is less accurate in timing the formation and dissipation of clouds during the summer, when higher water vapor quantities are present in the atmosphere than during the austral winter. Secondly, the model sensitivity on changing the microphysics, cumulus parameterization and land surface models on calculated GHI values is evaluated. The sensitivity simulations showed that changing the microphysics from the Thompson scheme (or Single-Moment 6-class scheme) to the Morrison double-moment scheme, the relative bias improves from 45% to 10%. The underlying reason for this improvement is that the Morrison double-moment scheme predicts the mass and number concentrations of five hydrometeors, which help to improve the calculation of the densities, size and lifetime of the cloud droplets. While the single moment schemes only predicts the mass for less hydrometeors. Changing the cumulus parameterization schemes and land surface models does not have a large impact on GHI calculations.

  9. Parameterization of ion-induced nucleation rates based on ambient observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Nieminen

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric ions participate in the formation of new atmospheric aerosol particles, yet their exact role in this process has remained unclear. Here we derive a new simple parameterization for ion-induced nucleation or, more precisely, for the formation rate of charged 2-nm particles. The parameterization is semi-empirical in the sense that it is based on comprehensive results of one-year-long atmospheric cluster and particle measurements in the size range ~1–42 nm within the EUCAARI (European Integrated project on Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality interactions project. Data from 12 field sites across Europe measured with different types of air ion and cluster mobility spectrometers were used in our analysis, with more in-depth analysis made using data from four stations with concomitant sulphuric acid measurements. The parameterization is given in two slightly different forms: a more accurate one that requires information on sulfuric acid and nucleating organic vapor concentrations, and a simpler one in which this information is replaced with the global radiation intensity. These new parameterizations are applicable to all large-scale atmospheric models containing size-resolved aerosol microphysics, and a scheme to calculate concentrations of sulphuric acid, condensing organic vapours and cluster ions.

  10. Evaluating parameterizations of aerodynamic resistance to heat transfer using field measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaomin Liu

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Parameterizations of aerodynamic resistance to heat and water transfer have a significant impact on the accuracy of models of land – atmosphere interactions and of estimated surface fluxes using spectro-radiometric data collected from aircrafts and satellites. We have used measurements from an eddy correlation system to derive the aerodynamic resistance to heat transfer over a bare soil surface as well as over a maize canopy. Diurnal variations of aerodynamic resistance have been analyzed. The results showed that the diurnal variation of aerodynamic resistance during daytime (07:00 h–18:00 h was significant for both the bare soil surface and the maize canopy although the range of variation was limited. Based on the measurements made by the eddy correlation system, a comprehensive evaluation of eight popularly used parameterization schemes of aerodynamic resistance was carried out. The roughness length for heat transfer is a crucial parameter in the estimation of aerodynamic resistance to heat transfer and can neither be taken as a constant nor be neglected. Comparing with the measurements, the parameterizations by Choudhury et al. (1986, Viney (1991, Yang et al. (2001 and the modified forms of Verma et al. (1976 and Mahrt and Ek (1984 by inclusion of roughness length for heat transfer gave good agreements with the measurements, while the parameterizations by Hatfield et al. (1983 and Xie (1988 showed larger errors even though the roughness length for heat transfer has been taken into account.

  11. An Evaluation of Lightning Flash Rate Parameterizations Based on Observations of Colorado Storms during DC3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basarab, B.; Fuchs, B.; Rutledge, S. A.

    2013-12-01

    Predicting lightning activity in thunderstorms is important in order to accurately quantify the production of nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2) by lightning (LNOx). Lightning is an important global source of NOx, and since NOx is a chemical precursor to ozone, the climatological impacts of LNOx could be significant. Many cloud-resolving models rely on parameterizations to predict lightning and LNOx since the processes leading to charge separation and lightning discharge are not yet fully understood. This study evaluates predicted flash rates based on existing lightning parameterizations against flash rates observed for Colorado storms during the Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry Experiment (DC3). Evaluating lightning parameterizations against storm observations is a useful way to possibly improve the prediction of flash rates and LNOx in models. Additionally, since convective storms that form in the eastern plains of Colorado can be different thermodynamically and electrically from storms in other regions, it is useful to test existing parameterizations against observations from these storms. We present an analysis of the dynamics, microphysics, and lightning characteristics of two case studies, severe storms that developed on 6 and 7 June 2012. This analysis includes dual-Doppler derived horizontal and vertical velocities, a hydrometeor identification based on polarimetric radar variables using the CSU-CHILL radar, and insight into the charge structure using observations from the northern Colorado Lightning Mapping Array (LMA). Flash rates were inferred from the LMA data using a flash counting algorithm. We have calculated various microphysical and dynamical parameters for these storms that have been used in empirical flash rate parameterizations. In particular, maximum vertical velocity has been used to predict flash rates in some cloud-resolving chemistry simulations. We diagnose flash rates for the 6 and 7 June storms using this parameterization and compare

  12. Intercomparison of Martian Lower Atmosphere Simulated Using Different Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natarajan, Murali; Fairlie, T. Duncan; Dwyer Cianciolo, Alicia; Smith, Michael D.

    2015-01-01

    We use the mesoscale modeling capability of Mars Weather Research and Forecasting (MarsWRF) model to study the sensitivity of the simulated Martian lower atmosphere to differences in the parameterization of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Characterization of the Martian atmosphere and realistic representation of processes such as mixing of tracers like dust depend on how well the model reproduces the evolution of the PBL structure. MarsWRF is based on the NCAR WRF model and it retains some of the PBL schemes available in the earth version. Published studies have examined the performance of different PBL schemes in NCAR WRF with the help of observations. Currently such assessments are not feasible for Martian atmospheric models due to lack of observations. It is of interest though to study the sensitivity of the model to PBL parameterization. Typically, for standard Martian atmospheric simulations, we have used the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) PBL scheme, which considers a correction term to the vertical gradients to incorporate nonlocal effects. For this study, we have also used two other parameterizations, a non-local closure scheme called Yonsei University (YSU) PBL scheme and a turbulent kinetic energy closure scheme called Mellor- Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) PBL scheme. We will present intercomparisons of the near surface temperature profiles, boundary layer heights, and wind obtained from the different simulations. We plan to use available temperature observations from Mini TES instrument onboard the rovers Spirit and Opportunity in evaluating the model results.

  13. New Parameterizations for Neutral and Ion-Induced Sulfuric Acid-Water Particle Formation in Nucleation and Kinetic Regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Määttänen, Anni; Merikanto, Joonas; Henschel, Henning; Duplissy, Jonathan; Makkonen, Risto; Ortega, Ismael K.; Vehkamäki, Hanna

    2018-01-01

    We have developed new parameterizations of electrically neutral homogeneous and ion-induced sulfuric acid-water particle formation for large ranges of environmental conditions, based on an improved model that has been validated against a particle formation rate data set produced by Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets (CLOUD) experiments at European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN). The model uses a thermodynamically consistent version of the Classical Nucleation Theory normalized using quantum chemical data. Unlike the earlier parameterizations for H2SO4-H2O nucleation, the model is applicable to extreme dry conditions where the one-component sulfuric acid limit is approached. Parameterizations are presented for the critical cluster sulfuric acid mole fraction, the critical cluster radius, the total number of molecules in the critical cluster, and the particle formation rate. If the critical cluster contains only one sulfuric acid molecule, a simple formula for kinetic particle formation can be used: this threshold has also been parameterized. The parameterization for electrically neutral particle formation is valid for the following ranges: temperatures 165-400 K, sulfuric acid concentrations 104-1013 cm-3, and relative humidities 0.001-100%. The ion-induced particle formation parameterization is valid for temperatures 195-400 K, sulfuric acid concentrations 104-1016 cm-3, and relative humidities 10-5-100%. The new parameterizations are thus applicable for the full range of conditions in the Earth's atmosphere relevant for binary sulfuric acid-water particle formation, including both tropospheric and stratospheric conditions. They are also suitable for describing particle formation in the atmosphere of Venus.

  14. Bringing Kano’s Perspective to AHP: The 2D-AHP Decision Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jung Uk

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available AHP and the Kano model are such prevalent TQM tools that it may be surprising that a true hybrid decision-making model has so far eluded researchers. The quest for a hybrid approach is complicated by the differing output perspective of each model, namely discrete ranking (AHP versus a multi-dimensional picture (Kano. This paper presents a hybrid model of AHP and Kano model, so called two-dimension AHP (2D-AHP.

  15. Factors influencing the parameterization of anvil clouds within GCMs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leone, J.M. Jr.; Chin, Hung-Neng.

    1993-03-01

    The overall goal of this project is to improve the representation of clouds and their effects within global climate models (GCMs). The authors have concentrated on a small portion of the overall goal, the evolution of convectively generated cirrus clouds and their effects on the large-scale environment. Because of the large range of time and length scales involved they have been using a multi-scale attack. For the early time generation and development of the cirrus anvil they are using a cloud-scale model with horizontal resolution of 1--2 kilometers; while for the larger scale transport by the larger scale flow they are using a mesoscale model with a horizontal resolution of 20--60 kilometers. The eventual goal is to use the information obtained from these simulations together with available observations to derive improved cloud parameterizations for use in GCMs. This paper presents results from their cloud-scale studies and describes a new tool, a cirrus generator, that they have developed to aid in their mesoscale studies

  16. Test Driven Development of a Parameterized Ice Sheet Component

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clune, T.

    2011-12-01

    Test driven development (TDD) is a software development methodology that offers many advantages over traditional approaches including reduced development and maintenance costs, improved reliability, and superior design quality. Although TDD is widely accepted in many software communities, the suitability to scientific software is largely undemonstrated and warrants a degree of skepticism. Indeed, numerical algorithms pose several challenges to unit testing in general, and TDD in particular. Among these challenges are the need to have simple, non-redundant closed-form expressions to compare against the results obtained from the implementation as well as realistic error estimates. The necessity for serial and parallel performance raises additional concerns for many scientific applicaitons. In previous work I demonstrated that TDD performed well for the development of a relatively simple numerical model that simulates the growth of snowflakes, but the results were anecdotal and of limited relevance to far more complex software components typical of climate models. This investigation has now been extended by successfully applying TDD to the implementation of a substantial portion of a new parameterized ice sheet component within a full climate model. After a brief introduction to TDD, I will present techniques that address some of the obstacles encountered with numerical algorithms. I will conclude with some quantitative and qualitative comparisons against climate components developed in a more traditional manner.

  17. Genome-scale modeling of yeast: chronology, applications and critical perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, Helder; Rocha, Isabel

    2017-08-01

    Over the last 15 years, several genome-scale metabolic models (GSMMs) were developed for different yeast species, aiding both the elucidation of new biological processes and the shift toward a bio-based economy, through the design of in silico inspired cell factories. Here, an historical perspective of the GSMMs built over time for several yeast species is presented and the main inheritance patterns among the metabolic reconstructions are highlighted. We additionally provide a critical perspective on the overall genome-scale modeling procedure, underlining incomplete model validation and evaluation approaches and the quest for the integration of regulatory and kinetic information into yeast GSMMs. A summary of experimentally validated model-based metabolic engineering applications of yeast species is further emphasized, while the main challenges and future perspectives for the field are finally addressed. © FEMS 2017.

  18. Tsunami damping by mangrove forest: a laboratory study using parameterized trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Strusińska-Correia

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Tsunami attenuation by coastal vegetation was examined under laboratory conditions for mature mangroves Rhizophora sp. The developed novel tree parameterization concept, accounting for both bio-mechanical and structural tree properties, allowed to substitute the complex tree structure by a simplified tree model of identical hydraulic resistance. The most representative parameterized mangrove model was selected among the tested models with different frontal area and root density, based on hydraulic test results. The selected parameterized tree models were arranged in a forest model of different width and further tested systematically under varying incident tsunami conditions (solitary waves and tsunami bores. The damping performance of the forest models under these two flow regimes was compared in terms of wave height and force envelopes, wave transmission coefficient as well as drag and inertia coefficients. Unlike the previous studies, the results indicate a significant contribution of the foreshore topography to solitary wave energy reduction through wave breaking in comparison to that attributed to the forest itself. A similar rate of tsunami transmission (ca. 20% was achieved for both flow conditions (solitary waves and tsunami bores and the widest forest (75 m in prototype investigated. Drag coefficient CD attributed to the solitary waves tends to be constant (CD = 1.5 over the investigated range of the Reynolds number.

  19. A test harness for accelerating physics parameterization advancements into operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Firl, G. J.; Bernardet, L.; Harrold, M.; Henderson, J.; Wolff, J.; Zhang, M.

    2017-12-01

    The process of transitioning advances in parameterization of sub-grid scale processes from initial idea to implementation is often much quicker than the transition from implementation to use in an operational setting. After all, considerable work must be undertaken by operational centers to fully test, evaluate, and implement new physics. The process is complicated by the scarcity of like-to-like comparisons, availability of HPC resources, and the ``tuning problem" whereby advances in physics schemes are difficult to properly evaluate without first undertaking the expensive and time-consuming process of tuning to other schemes within a suite. To address this process shortcoming, the Global Model TestBed (GMTB), supported by the NWS NGGPS project and undertaken by the Developmental Testbed Center, has developed a physics test harness. It implements the concept of hierarchical testing, where the same code can be tested in model configurations of varying complexity from single column models (SCM) to fully coupled, cycled global simulations. Developers and users may choose at which level of complexity to engage. Several components of the physics test harness have been implemented, including a SCM and an end-to-end workflow that expands upon the one used at NOAA/EMC to run the GFS operationally, although the testbed components will necessarily morph to coincide with changes to the operational configuration (FV3-GFS). A standard, relatively user-friendly interface known as the Interoperable Physics Driver (IPD) is available for physics developers to connect their codes. This prerequisite exercise allows access to the testbed tools and removes a technical hurdle for potential inclusion into the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP). The testbed offers users the opportunity to conduct like-to-like comparisons between the operational physics suite and new development as well as among multiple developments. GMTB staff have demonstrated use of the testbed through a

  20. The Perspective on Data and Control Flow Analysis in Topological Functioning Models by Petri Nets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asnina Erika

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The perspective on integration of two mathematical formalisms, i.e., Colored Petri Nets (CPNs and Topological Functioning Model (TFM, is discussed in the paper. The roots of CPNs are in modeling system functionality. The TFM joins principles of system theory and algebraic topology, and formally bridges the solution domain with the problem domain. It is a base for further automated construction of software design models. The paper discusses a perspective on check of control and data flows in the TFM by CPNs formalism. The research result is definition of mappings from TFMs to CPNs.

  1. Ozonolysis of α-pinene: parameterization of secondary organic aerosol mass fraction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. K. Pathak

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Existing parameterizations tend to underpredict the α-pinene aerosol mass fraction (AMF or yield by a factor of 2–5 at low organic aerosol concentrations (<5 µg m−3. A wide range of smog chamber results obtained at various conditions (low/high NOx, presence/absence of UV radiation, dry/humid conditions, and temperatures ranging from 15–40°C collected by various research teams during the last decade are used to derive new parameterizations of the SOA formation from α-pinene ozonolysis. Parameterizations are developed by fitting experimental data to a basis set of saturation concentrations (from 10−2 to 104 µg m−3 using an absorptive equilibrium partitioning model. Separate parameterizations for α-pinene SOA mass fractions are developed for: 1 Low NOx, dark, and dry conditions, 2 Low NOx, UV, and dry conditions, 3 Low NOx, dark, and high RH conditions, 4 High NOx, dark, and dry conditions, 5 High NOx, UV, and dry conditions. According to the proposed parameterizations the α-pinene SOA mass fractions in an atmosphere with 5 µg m−3 of organic aerosol range from 0.032 to 0.1 for reacted α-pinene concentrations in the 1 ppt to 5 ppb range.

  2. Perceiving design as modelling: A cybernetic systems perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maier, Anja; Wynn, David C.; Howard, Thomas J.

    2014-01-01

    The creation and use of models is central to engineering design, to the extent that designing might be perceived as a propagation from model to model and modelling may be described as the language of the designer (the terms product model and artefact model are used synonymously throughout this ch...

  3. Simulation and Analysis of Complex Biological Processes: an Organisation Modelling Perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosse, T.; Jonker, C.M.; Treur, J.

    2005-01-01

    This paper explores how the dynamics of complex biological processes can be modelled and simulated as an organisation of multiple agents. This modelling perspective identifies organisational structure occurring in complex decentralised processes and handles complexity of the analysis of the dynamics

  4. Study on Innovation of Teacher Training Model in Basic Education from the Perspective of "Blended Learning"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bu, Huabai; Bu, Shizhen

    2012-01-01

    Gradual integration of synergetic technology, P2P technology and online learning community furnishes a new research field for innovation of teacher training model in a knowledge economy era. This article proposes the innovative model of "whole of three lines" in teacher training in basic education from the perspective of "blended…

  5. Exploring, exploiting and evolving diversity of aquatic ecosystem models: a community perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, A.B.G.; Gerla, D.J.

    2015-01-01

    Here, we present a community perspective on how to explore, exploit and evolve the diversity in aquatic ecosystem models. These models play an important role in understanding the functioning of aquatic ecosystems, filling in observation gaps and developing effective strategies for water quality

  6. Multimodel Uncertainty Changes in Simulated River Flows Induced by Human Impact Parameterizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xingcai; Tang, Qiuhong; Cui, Huijuan; Mu, Mengfei; Gerten Dieter; Gosling, Simon; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Satoh, Yusuke; Wada, Yoshihide

    2017-01-01

    Human impacts increasingly affect the global hydrological cycle and indeed dominate hydrological changes in some regions. Hydrologists have sought to identify the human-impact-induced hydrological variations via parameterizing anthropogenic water uses in global hydrological models (GHMs). The consequently increased model complexity is likely to introduce additional uncertainty among GHMs. Here, using four GHMs, between-model uncertainties are quantified in terms of the ratio of signal to noise (SNR) for average river flow during 1971-2000 simulated in two experiments, with representation of human impacts (VARSOC) and without (NOSOC). It is the first quantitative investigation of between-model uncertainty resulted from the inclusion of human impact parameterizations. Results show that the between-model uncertainties in terms of SNRs in the VARSOC annual flow are larger (about 2 for global and varied magnitude for different basins) than those in the NOSOC, which are particularly significant in most areas of Asia and northern areas to the Mediterranean Sea. The SNR differences are mostly negative (-20 to 5, indicating higher uncertainty) for basin-averaged annual flow. The VARSOC high flow shows slightly lower uncertainties than NOSOC simulations, with SNR differences mostly ranging from -20 to 20. The uncertainty differences between the two experiments are significantly related to the fraction of irrigation areas of basins. The large additional uncertainties in VARSOC simulations introduced by the inclusion of parameterizations of human impacts raise the urgent need of GHMs development regarding a better understanding of human impacts. Differences in the parameterizations of irrigation, reservoir regulation and water withdrawals are discussed towards potential directions of improvements for future GHM development. We also discuss the advantages of statistical approaches to reduce the between-model uncertainties, and the importance of calibration of GHMs for not only

  7. A Feedback Learning and Mental Models Perspective on Strategic Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Capelo, Carlos; Dias, João Ferreira

    2009-01-01

    This study aims to be a contribution to a theoretical model that explains the effectiveness of the learning and decision-making processes by means of a feedback and mental models perspective. With appropriate mental models, managers should be able to improve their capacity to deal with dynamically complex contexts, in order to achieve long-term success. We present a set of hypotheses about the influence of feedback information and systems thinking facilitation on mental models and manag...

  8. Futures Business Models for an IoT Enabled Healthcare Sector: A Causal Layered Analysis Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Julius Francis Gomes; Sara Moqaddemerad

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To facilitate futures business research by proposing a novel way to combine business models as a conceptual tool with futures research techniques. Design: A futures perspective is adopted to foresight business models of the Internet of Things (IoT) enabled healthcare sector by using business models as a futures business research tool. In doing so, business models is coupled with one of the most prominent foresight methodologies, Causal Layered Analysis (CLA). Qualitative analysis...

  9. Winter QPF Sensitivities to Snow Parameterizations and Comparisons to NASA CloudSat Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molthan, Andrew; Haynes, John M.; Jedlovec, Gary J.; Lapenta, William M.

    2009-01-01

    Steady increases in computing power have allowed for numerical weather prediction models to be initialized and run at high spatial resolution, permitting a transition from larger scale parameterizations of the effects of clouds and precipitation to the simulation of specific microphysical processes and hydrometeor size distributions. Although still relatively coarse in comparison to true cloud resolving models, these high resolution forecasts (on the order of 4 km or less) have demonstrated value in the prediction of severe storm mode and evolution and are being explored for use in winter weather events . Several single-moment bulk water microphysics schemes are available within the latest release of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model suite, including the NASA Goddard Cumulus Ensemble, which incorporate some assumptions in the size distribution of a small number of hydrometeor classes in order to predict their evolution, advection and precipitation within the forecast domain. Although many of these schemes produce similar forecasts of events on the synoptic scale, there are often significant details regarding precipitation and cloud cover, as well as the distribution of water mass among the constituent hydrometeor classes. Unfortunately, validating data for cloud resolving model simulations are sparse. Field campaigns require in-cloud measurements of hydrometeors from aircraft in coordination with extensive and coincident ground based measurements. Radar remote sensing is utilized to detect the spatial coverage and structure of precipitation. Here, two radar systems characterize the structure of winter precipitation for comparison to equivalent features within a forecast model: a 3 GHz, Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) based in Omaha, Nebraska, and the 94 GHz NASA CloudSat Cloud Profiling Radar, a spaceborne instrument and member of the afternoon or "A-Train" of polar orbiting satellites tasked with cataloguing global cloud

  10. The capital asset pricing model versus the three factor model: A United Kingdom Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chandra Shekhar Bhatnagar

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The Sharpe (1964, Lintner (1965 and Black (1972 Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM postulates that the equilibrium rates of return on all risky assets are a linear function of their covariance with the market portfolio. Recent work by Fama and French (1996, 2006 introduce a Three Factor Model that questions the “real world application” of the CAPM Theorem and its ability to explain stock returns as well as value premium effects in the United States market. This paper provides an out-of-sample perspective to the work of Fama and French (1996, 2006. Multiple regression is used to compare the performance of the CAPM, a split sample CAPM and the Three Factor