Biosphere modelling for a HLW repository - scenario and parameter variations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Grogan, H.
1985-03-01
In Switzerland high-level radioactive wastes have been considered for disposal in deep-lying crystalline formations. The individual doses to man resulting from radionuclides entering the biosphere via groundwater transport are calculated. The main recipient area modelled, which constitutes the base case, is a broad gravel terrace sited along the south bank of the river Rhine. An alternative recipient region, a small valley with a well, is also modelled. A number of parameter variations are performed in order to ascertain their impact on the doses. Finally two scenario changes are modelled somewhat simplistically, these consider different prevailing climates, namely tundra and a warmer climate than present. In the base case negligibly low doses to man in the long term, resulting from the existence of a HLW repository have been calculated. Cs-135 results in the largest dose (8.4E-7 mrem/y at 6.1E+6 y) while Np-237 gives the largest dose from the actinides (3.6E-8 mrem/y). The response of the model to parameter variations cannot be easily predicted due to non-linear coupling of many of the parameters. However, the calculated doses were negligibly low in all cases as were those resulting from the two scenario variations. (author)
Temporal variation and scaling of parameters for a monthly hydrologic model
Deng, Chao; Liu, Pan; Wang, Dingbao; Wang, Weiguang
2018-03-01
The temporal variation of model parameters is affected by the catchment conditions and has a significant impact on hydrological simulation. This study aims to evaluate the seasonality and downscaling of model parameter across time scales based on monthly and mean annual water balance models with a common model framework. Two parameters of the monthly model, i.e., k and m, are assumed to be time-variant at different months. Based on the hydrological data set from 121 MOPEX catchments in the United States, we firstly analyzed the correlation between parameters (k and m) and catchment properties (NDVI and frequency of rainfall events, α). The results show that parameter k is positively correlated with NDVI or α, while the correlation is opposite for parameter m, indicating that precipitation and vegetation affect monthly water balance by controlling temporal variation of parameters k and m. The multiple linear regression is then used to fit the relationship between ε and the means and coefficient of variations of parameters k and m. Based on the empirical equation and the correlations between the time-variant parameters and NDVI, the mean annual parameter ε is downscaled to monthly k and m. The results show that it has lower NSEs than these from model with time-variant k and m being calibrated through SCE-UA, while for several study catchments, it has higher NSEs than that of the model with constant parameters. The proposed method is feasible and provides a useful tool for temporal scaling of model parameter.
The Stochastic Quasi-chemical Model for Bacterial Growth: Variational Bayesian Parameter Update
Tsilifis, Panagiotis; Browning, William J.; Wood, Thomas E.; Newton, Paul K.; Ghanem, Roger G.
2018-02-01
We develop Bayesian methodologies for constructing and estimating a stochastic quasi-chemical model (QCM) for bacterial growth. The deterministic QCM, described as a nonlinear system of ODEs, is treated as a dynamical system with random parameters, and a variational approach is used to approximate their probability distributions and explore the propagation of uncertainty through the model. The approach consists of approximating the parameters' posterior distribution by a probability measure chosen from a parametric family, through minimization of their Kullback-Leibler divergence.
Simulations of a epidemic model with parameters variation analysis for the dengue fever
Jardim, C. L. T. F.; Prates, D. B.; Silva, J. M.; Ferreira, L. A. F.; Kritz, M. V.
2015-09-01
Mathematical models can be widely found in the literature for describing and analyzing epidemics. The models that use differential equations to represent mathematically such description are specially sensible to parameters involved in the modelling. In this work, an already developed model, called SIR, is analyzed when applied to a scenario of a dengue fever epidemic. Such choice is powered by the existence of useful tools presented by a variation of this original model, which allow an inclusion of different aspects of the dengue fever disease, as its seasonal characteristics, the presence of more than one strain of the vector and of the biological factor of cross-immunity. The analysis and results interpretation are performed through numerical solutions of the model in question, and a special attention is given to the different solutions generated by the use of different values for the parameters present in this model. Slight variations are performed either dynamically or statically in those parameters, mimicking hypothesized changes in the biological scenario of this simulation and providing a source of evaluation of how those changes would affect the outcomes of the epidemic in a population.
Testing variational estimation of process parameters and initial conditions of an earth system model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Simon Blessing
2014-03-01
Full Text Available We present a variational assimilation system around a coarse resolution Earth System Model (ESM and apply it for estimating initial conditions and parameters of the model. The system is based on derivative information that is efficiently provided by the ESM's adjoint, which has been generated through automatic differentiation of the model's source code. In our variational approach, the length of the feasible assimilation window is limited by the size of the domain in control space over which the approximation by the derivative is valid. This validity domain is reduced by non-smooth process representations. We show that in this respect the ocean component is less critical than the atmospheric component. We demonstrate how the feasible assimilation window can be extended to several weeks by modifying the implementation of specific process representations and by switching off processes such as precipitation.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
W. Castaings
2009-04-01
Full Text Available Variational methods are widely used for the analysis and control of computationally intensive spatially distributed systems. In particular, the adjoint state method enables a very efficient calculation of the derivatives of an objective function (response function to be analysed or cost function to be optimised with respect to model inputs.
In this contribution, it is shown that the potential of variational methods for distributed catchment scale hydrology should be considered. A distributed flash flood model, coupling kinematic wave overland flow and Green Ampt infiltration, is applied to a small catchment of the Thoré basin and used as a relatively simple (synthetic observations but didactic application case.
It is shown that forward and adjoint sensitivity analysis provide a local but extensive insight on the relation between the assigned model parameters and the simulated hydrological response. Spatially distributed parameter sensitivities can be obtained for a very modest calculation effort (~6 times the computing time of a single model run and the singular value decomposition (SVD of the Jacobian matrix provides an interesting perspective for the analysis of the rainfall-runoff relation.
For the estimation of model parameters, adjoint-based derivatives were found exceedingly efficient in driving a bound-constrained quasi-Newton algorithm. The reference parameter set is retrieved independently from the optimization initial condition when the very common dimension reduction strategy (i.e. scalar multipliers is adopted.
Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis results suggest that most of the variability in this high-dimensional parameter space can be captured with a few orthogonal directions. A parametrization based on the SVD leading singular vectors was found very promising but should be combined with another regularization strategy in order to prevent overfitting.
Using a 4D-Variational Method to Optimize Model Parameters in an Intermediate Coupled Model of ENSO
Gao, C.; Zhang, R. H.
2017-12-01
Large biases exist in real-time ENSO prediction, which is attributed to uncertainties in initial conditions and model parameters. Previously, a four dimentional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation system was developed for an intermediate coupled model (ICM) and used to improve ENSO modeling through optimized initial conditions. In this paper, this system is further applied to optimize model parameters. In the ICM used, one important process for ENSO is related to the anomalous temperature of subsurface water entrained into the mixed layer (Te), which is empirically and explicitly related to sea level (SL) variation, written as Te=αTe×FTe (SL). The introduced parameter, αTe, represents the strength of the thermocline effect on sea surface temperature (SST; referred as the thermocline effect). A numerical procedure is developed to optimize this model parameter through the 4D-Var assimilation of SST data in a twin experiment context with an idealized setting. Experiments having initial condition optimized only and having initial condition plus this additional model parameter optimized both are compared. It is shown that ENSO evolution can be more effectively recovered by including the additional optimization of this parameter in ENSO modeling. The demonstrated feasibility of optimizing model parameter and initial condition together through the 4D-Var method provides a modeling platform for ENSO studies. Further applications of the 4D-Var data assimilation system implemented in the ICM are also discussed.
Gao, Chuan; Zhang, Rong-Hua; Wu, Xinrong; Sun, Jichang
2018-04-01
Large biases exist in real-time ENSO prediction, which can be attributed to uncertainties in initial conditions and model parameters. Previously, a 4D variational (4D-Var) data assimilation system was developed for an intermediate coupled model (ICM) and used to improve ENSO modeling through optimized initial conditions. In this paper, this system is further applied to optimize model parameters. In the ICM used, one important process for ENSO is related to the anomalous temperature of subsurface water entrained into the mixed layer ( T e), which is empirically and explicitly related to sea level (SL) variation. The strength of the thermocline effect on SST (referred to simply as "the thermocline effect") is represented by an introduced parameter, α Te. A numerical procedure is developed to optimize this model parameter through the 4D-Var assimilation of SST data in a twin experiment context with an idealized setting. Experiments having their initial condition optimized only, and having their initial condition plus this additional model parameter optimized, are compared. It is shown that ENSO evolution can be more effectively recovered by including the additional optimization of this parameter in ENSO modeling. The demonstrated feasibility of optimizing model parameters and initial conditions together through the 4D-Var method provides a modeling platform for ENSO studies. Further applications of the 4D-Var data assimilation system implemented in the ICM are also discussed.
Abusam, A.A.A.; Keesman, K.J.; Straten, van G.; Spanjers, H.; Meinema, K.
2001-01-01
This paper demonstrates the application of the factorial sensitivity analysis methodology in studying the influence of variations in stoichiometric, kinetic and operating parameters on the performance indices of an oxidation ditch simulation model (benchmark). Factorial sensitivity analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
G. Heuvelmans
2004-01-01
Full Text Available Operational applications of a hydrological model often require the prediction of stream flow in (future time periods without stream flow observations or in ungauged catchments. Data for a case-specific optimisation of model parameters are not available for such applications, so parameters have to be derived from other catchments or time periods. It has been demonstrated that for applications of the SWAT in Northern Belgium, temporal transfers of the parameters have less influence than spatial transfers on the performance of the model. This study examines the spatial variation in parameter optima in more detail. The aim was to delineate zones wherein model parameters can be transferred without a significant loss of model performance. SWAT was calibrated for 25 catchments that are part of eight larger sub-basins of the Scheldt river basin. Two approaches are discussed for grouping these units in zones with a uniform set of parameters: a single parameter approach considering each parameter separately and a parameter set approach evaluating the parameterisation as a whole. For every catchment, the SWAT model was run with the local parameter optima, with the average parameter values for the entire study region (Flanders, with the zones delineated with the single parameter approach and with the zones obtained by the parameter set approach. Comparison of the model performances of these four parameterisation strategies indicates that both the single parameter and the parameter set zones lead to stream flow predictions that are more accurate than if the entire study region were treated as one single zone. On the other hand, the use of zonal average parameter values results in a considerably worse model fit compared to local parameter optima. Clustering of parameter sets gives a more accurate result than the single parameter approach and is, therefore, the preferred technique for use in the parameterisation of ungauged sub-catchments as part of the
Variation of the Moyer Model Parameter, H0, with primary proton energy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Liu, K.L.; Stevenson, G.R.; Thomas, R.H.; Thomas, S.V.
1982-08-01
Experimental values of the Moyer Model Parameter H 0 were summarized and presented as a function of proton energy, E/sub p/. The variation of H 0 (E/sup p/) with E/sup p/ was studied by regression analysis. Regression Analysis of the data under log-log transformation gave a best value for the exponent m of 0.77 +- 0.26, but a t-test did not reject m = 1 (p +- 20%). Since m = 1 was not excluded, and a Fisher's F-test did not exclude linearity, a linear regression analysis was performed. A line passing through the origin was not rejected (Student's t-test, p = 30%) and has the equation: H 0 (E/sup p/ = (1.61 +- 0.19) x 10 -13 Sv.m 2 /GeV to be compared with a value of (1.65 +- 0.21) x 10 -13 Sv.m 2 /GeV published by Stevenson et al
Groenendijk, M.; Dolman, A.J.; Ammann, C.; Arneth, A.; Cescatti, A.; Molen, van der M.K.; Moors, E.J.
2011-01-01
Global vegetation models require the photosynthetic parameters, maximum carboxylation capacity (Vcm), and quantum yield (a) to parameterize their plant functional types (PFTs). The purpose of this work is to determine how much the scaling of the parameters from leaf to ecosystem level through a
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kock, A.
1996-05-01
The objectives of this research are: (1) to calculate and compare off site doses from atmospheric tritium releases at the Savannah River Site using monthly versus 5 year meteorological data and annual source terms, including additional seasonal and site specific parameters not included in present annual assessments; and (2) to calculate the range of the above dose estimates based on distributions in model parameters given by uncertainty estimates found in the literature. Consideration will be given to the sensitivity of parameters given in former studies
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kock, A.
1996-05-01
The objectives of this research are: (1) to calculate and compare off site doses from atmospheric tritium releases at the Savannah River Site using monthly versus 5 year meteorological data and annual source terms, including additional seasonal and site specific parameters not included in present annual assessments; and (2) to calculate the range of the above dose estimates based on distributions in model parameters given by uncertainty estimates found in the literature. Consideration will be given to the sensitivity of parameters given in former studies.
Myers, J. G.; Feola, A.; Werner, C.; Nelson, E. S.; Raykin, J.; Samuels, B.; Ethier, C. R.
2016-01-01
The earliest manifestations of Visual Impairment and Intracranial Pressure (VIIP) syndrome become evident after months of spaceflight and include a variety of ophthalmic changes, including posterior globe flattening and distension of the optic nerve sheath. Prevailing evidence links the occurrence of VIIP to the cephalic fluid shift induced by microgravity and the subsequent pressure changes around the optic nerve and eye. Deducing the etiology of VIIP is challenging due to the wide range of physiological parameters that may be influenced by spaceflight and are required to address a realistic spectrum of physiological responses. Here, we report on the application of an efficient approach to interrogating physiological parameter space through computational modeling. Specifically, we assess the influence of uncertainty in input parameters for two models of VIIP syndrome: a lumped-parameter model (LPM) of the cardiovascular and central nervous systems, and a finite-element model (FEM) of the posterior eye, optic nerve head (ONH) and optic nerve sheath. Methods: To investigate the parameter space in each model, we employed Latin hypercube sampling partial rank correlation coefficient (LHSPRCC) strategies. LHS techniques outperform Monte Carlo approaches by enforcing efficient sampling across the entire range of all parameters. The PRCC method estimates the sensitivity of model outputs to these parameters while adjusting for the linear effects of all other inputs. The LPM analysis addressed uncertainties in 42 physiological parameters, such as initial compartmental volume and nominal compartment percentage of total cardiac output in the supine state, while the FEM evaluated the effects on biomechanical strain from uncertainties in 23 material and pressure parameters for the ocular anatomy. Results and Conclusion: The LPM analysis identified several key factors including high sensitivity to the initial fluid distribution. The FEM study found that intraocular pressure and
Total Variation Based Parameter-Free Model for Impulse Noise Removal
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sciacchitano, Federica; Dong, Yiqiu; Andersen, Martin Skovgaard
2017-01-01
reconstruction problem using a first-order primal-dual algorithm. The proposed model improves the computational efficiency (in the denoising case) and has the advantage of being regularization parameter-free. Our numerical results suggest that the method is competitive in terms of its restoration capabilities...
Different motor models based on parameter variation using method of genetic algorithms
Sarac, Vasilija; Cvetkovski, Goga
2010-01-01
Three new motor models of Single Phase Shade Pole Motor were developed using the method of genetic agoithms for optimisation purposes of motor design. In each of newly developed motor models number of varied parameters was gradually increased which results in gradual increase of electroamgnetic torque as target function for optimisation. Increase of electromagnetic torque was followed by the increase of efficiency factor. Finite Element Method Analysis was performed in order to be obtained ma...
Mukundan, Vrinda; Bhardwaj, Anil
2018-01-01
A one dimensional photochemical model for the dayside ionosphere of Titan has been developed for calculating the density profiles of ions and electrons under steady state photochemical equilibrium condition. We concentrated on the T40 flyby of Cassini orbiter and used the in-situ measurements from instruments onboard Cassini as input to the model. An energy deposition model is employed for calculating the attenuated photon flux and photoelectron flux at different altitudes in Titan's ionosphere. We used the Analytical Yield Spectrum approach for calculating the photoelectron fluxes. Volume production rates of major primary ions, like, N2+, N+ , CH4+, CH3+, etc due to photon and photoelectron impact are calculated and used as input to the model. The modeled profiles are compared with the Cassini Ion Neutral Mass Spectrometer (INMS) and Langmuir Probe (LP) measurements. The calculated electron density is higher than the observation by a factor of 2 to 3 around the peak. We studied the impact of different model parameters, viz. photoelectron flux, ion production rates, electron temperature, dissociative recombination rate coefficients, neutral densities of minor species, and solar flux on the calculated electron density to understand the possible reasons for this discrepancy. Recent studies have shown that there is an overestimation in the modeled photoelectron flux and N2+ ion production rates which may contribute towards this disagreement. But decreasing the photoelectron flux (by a factor of 3) and N2+ ion production rate (by a factor of 2) decreases the electron density only by 10 to 20%. Reduction in the measured electron temperature by a factor of 5 provides a good agreement between the modeled and observed electron density. The change in HCN and NH3 densities affects the calculated densities of the major ions (HCNH+ , C2H5+, and CH5+); however the overall impact on electron density is not appreciable ( < 20%). Even though increasing the dissociative
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Park, Kyung Joo; Park, Jae Hyung; Lee, Hak Jong; Won, Hyung Jin; Lee, Dong Hyuk; Min, Byung Goo; Chang, Kee Hyun
1997-01-01
The image quality of magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) varies according to the imaging techniques applied and the parameters affected by blood flow patterns, as well as by the shape of the blood vessels. This study was designed to assess the influence on signal intensity and its distribution of the geometry of these vessels, the imaging parameters, and the concentration of contrast media in MRA of stenosis and aneurysm models. MRA was performed in stenosis and aneurysm models made of glass tubes, using pulsatile flow with viscosity and flow profile similar to those of blood. Slice and maximum intensity projection (MIP) images were obtained using various imaging techniques and parameters;there was variation in repetition time, flip angle, imaging planes, and concentrations of contrast media. On slice images of three-dimensional (3D) time-of-flight (TOF) techniques, flow signal intensity was measured at five locations in the models, and contrast ratio was calculated as the difference between flow signal intensity (SI) and background signal intensity (SIb) divided by background signal intensity or (SI-SIb)/SIb. MIP images obtained by various techniques and using various parameters were also analyzed, with emphasis in the stenosis model on demonstrated degree of stenosis, severity of signal void and image distortion, and in the aneurysm model, on degree of visualization, distortion of contour and distribution of signals. In 3D TOF, the shortest TR (36 msec) and the largest FA (50 deg ) resulted in the highest contrast ratio, but larger flip angles did not effectively demonstrate the demonstration of the peripheral part of the aneurysm. Loss of signal was most prominent in images of the stenosis model obtained with parallel or oblique planes to the flow direction. The two-dimensional TOF technique also caused signal void in stenosis, but precisely demonstrated the aneurysm, with dense opacification of the peripheral part. The phase contrast technique showed some
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Fields, Laura [Fermilab; Genser, Krzysztof [Fermilab; Hatcher, Robert [Fermilab; Kelsey, Michael [SLAC; Perdue, Gabriel [Fermilab; Wenzel, Hans [Fermilab; Wright, Dennis H. [SLAC; Yarba, Julia [Fermilab
2017-08-21
Geant4 is the leading detector simulation toolkit used in high energy physics to design detectors and to optimize calibration and reconstruction software. It employs a set of carefully validated physics models to simulate interactions of particles with matter across a wide range of interaction energies. These models, especially the hadronic ones, rely largely on directly measured cross-sections and phenomenological predictions with physically motivated parameters estimated by theoretical calculation or measurement. Because these models are tuned to cover a very wide range of possible simulation tasks, they may not always be optimized for a given process or a given material. This raises several critical questions, e.g. how sensitive Geant4 predictions are to the variations of the model parameters, or what uncertainties are associated with a particular tune of a Geant4 physics model, or a group of models, or how to consistently derive guidance for Geant4 model development and improvement from a wide range of available experimental data. We have designed and implemented a comprehensive, modular, user-friendly software toolkit to study and address such questions. It allows one to easily modify parameters of one or several Geant4 physics models involved in the simulation, and to perform collective analysis of multiple variants of the resulting physics observables of interest and comparison against a variety of corresponding experimental data. Based on modern event-processing infrastructure software, the toolkit offers a variety of attractive features, e.g. flexible run-time configurable workflow, comprehensive bookkeeping, easy to expand collection of analytical components. Design, implementation technology, and key functionalities of the toolkit are presented and illustrated with results obtained with Geant4 key hadronic models.
On Non-Linear Sensitivity of Marine Biological Models to Parameter Variations
2007-01-01
M.B., 2002. Understanding uncertain enviromental systems. In: Grasman, J., van Straten, G. (Eds.), Predictability and Nonlinear Modelling in Natural...Lekien, F., 2006. Quantifying uncertainities in ocean predictions. In: Paluszkiewicz, T., Harper, S. (Eds.), Oceanography, special issue on Advances in
Groundwater numerical modelling of the Fjaellveden study site - evaluation of parameter variations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Larsson, N.A.
1987-10-01
The sensitivity/uncertainty of the hydraulic conductivity distribution in crystalline rocks is considered at the Fjaellveden study site - a site included in the Swedish site selection programme for final storage of spent nuclear fuel. A three-dimensional FEM-model assuming steady-state flow with constant fluid properties under saturated conditions is used. The bedrock of the site is divided into three hydraulic units; rock mass, local and regional fracture zones. The data set of hydraulic conductivity of each unit has been treated statistically in various ways, reflecting different aspects of the physical conditions of the site. A total of nine cases have been prepared, all based on 214 data points. (orig./HP)
Espinosa Moreno, Andres Santiago; Duque Daza, Carlos Alberto
2017-11-01
The effects of variation of two geometric parameters, such as bifurcation angle and carina rounding radius, during the respiratory inhalation process, are studied numerically using two synthetic models of lower human airways. Laminar flow simulations were performed for six angles and three rounding radius, for 500, 1000, 1500 and 2000 for Reynolds numbers. Numerical results showed the existence of a direct relationship between the deformation of the velocity profiles (effect produced by the bifurcation) and the vortical structures observed through the secondary flow patterns. It is observed that the location of the vortices (and their related saddle point) is associated with the displacement of the velocity peak. On the other hand, increasing the angle and the rounding radius seems to bring about a growth of the pressure drop, which in turn displaces the distribution and peaks of the maximum shear stresses of the carina, that is, of the bifurcation point. Some physiological effects associated with the phenomena produced by these geometric variations are also discussed.
Wang, Daosheng; Zhang, Jicai; He, Xianqiang; Chu, Dongdong; Lv, Xianqing; Wang, Ya Ping; Yang, Yang; Fan, Daidu; Gao, Shu
2018-01-01
Model parameters in the suspended cohesive sediment transport models are critical for the accurate simulation of suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs). Difficulties in estimating the model parameters still prevent numerical modeling of the sediment transport from achieving a high level of predictability. Based on a three-dimensional cohesive sediment transport model and its adjoint model, the satellite remote sensing data of SSCs during both spring tide and neap tide, retrieved from Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI), are assimilated to synchronously estimate four spatially and temporally varying parameters in the Hangzhou Bay in China, including settling velocity, resuspension rate, inflow open boundary conditions and initial conditions. After data assimilation, the model performance is significantly improved. Through several sensitivity experiments, the spatial and temporal variation tendencies of the estimated model parameters are verified to be robust and not affected by model settings. The pattern for the variations of the estimated parameters is analyzed and summarized. The temporal variations and spatial distributions of the estimated settling velocity are negatively correlated with current speed, which can be explained using the combination of flocculation process and Stokes' law. The temporal variations and spatial distributions of the estimated resuspension rate are also negatively correlated with current speed, which are related to the grain size of the seabed sediments under different current velocities. Besides, the estimated inflow open boundary conditions reach the local maximum values near the low water slack conditions and the estimated initial conditions are negatively correlated with water depth, which is consistent with the general understanding. The relationships between the estimated parameters and the hydrodynamic fields can be suggestive for improving the parameterization in cohesive sediment transport models.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, M.
2006-12-15
A lumped-parameter model represents the frequency dependent soil-structure interaction of a massless foundation placed on or embedded into an unbounded soil domain. In this technical report the steps of establishing a lumped-parameter model are presented. Following sections are included in this report: Static and dynamic formulation, Simple lumped-parameter models and Advanced lumped-parameter models. (au)
Degeling, Koen; IJzerman, Maarten J; Koopman, Miriam; Koffijberg, Hendrik
2017-12-15
Parametric distributions based on individual patient data can be used to represent both stochastic and parameter uncertainty. Although general guidance is available on how parameter uncertainty should be accounted for in probabilistic sensitivity analysis, there is no comprehensive guidance on reflecting parameter uncertainty in the (correlated) parameters of distributions used to represent stochastic uncertainty in patient-level models. This study aims to provide this guidance by proposing appropriate methods and illustrating the impact of this uncertainty on modeling outcomes. Two approaches, 1) using non-parametric bootstrapping and 2) using multivariate Normal distributions, were applied in a simulation and case study. The approaches were compared based on point-estimates and distributions of time-to-event and health economic outcomes. To assess sample size impact on the uncertainty in these outcomes, sample size was varied in the simulation study and subgroup analyses were performed for the case-study. Accounting for parameter uncertainty in distributions that reflect stochastic uncertainty substantially increased the uncertainty surrounding health economic outcomes, illustrated by larger confidence ellipses surrounding the cost-effectiveness point-estimates and different cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Although both approaches performed similar for larger sample sizes (i.e. n = 500), the second approach was more sensitive to extreme values for small sample sizes (i.e. n = 25), yielding infeasible modeling outcomes. Modelers should be aware that parameter uncertainty in distributions used to describe stochastic uncertainty needs to be reflected in probabilistic sensitivity analysis, as it could substantially impact the total amount of uncertainty surrounding health economic outcomes. If feasible, the bootstrap approach is recommended to account for this uncertainty.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Koen Degeling
2017-12-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Parametric distributions based on individual patient data can be used to represent both stochastic and parameter uncertainty. Although general guidance is available on how parameter uncertainty should be accounted for in probabilistic sensitivity analysis, there is no comprehensive guidance on reflecting parameter uncertainty in the (correlated parameters of distributions used to represent stochastic uncertainty in patient-level models. This study aims to provide this guidance by proposing appropriate methods and illustrating the impact of this uncertainty on modeling outcomes. Methods Two approaches, 1 using non-parametric bootstrapping and 2 using multivariate Normal distributions, were applied in a simulation and case study. The approaches were compared based on point-estimates and distributions of time-to-event and health economic outcomes. To assess sample size impact on the uncertainty in these outcomes, sample size was varied in the simulation study and subgroup analyses were performed for the case-study. Results Accounting for parameter uncertainty in distributions that reflect stochastic uncertainty substantially increased the uncertainty surrounding health economic outcomes, illustrated by larger confidence ellipses surrounding the cost-effectiveness point-estimates and different cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Although both approaches performed similar for larger sample sizes (i.e. n = 500, the second approach was more sensitive to extreme values for small sample sizes (i.e. n = 25, yielding infeasible modeling outcomes. Conclusions Modelers should be aware that parameter uncertainty in distributions used to describe stochastic uncertainty needs to be reflected in probabilistic sensitivity analysis, as it could substantially impact the total amount of uncertainty surrounding health economic outcomes. If feasible, the bootstrap approach is recommended to account for this uncertainty.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. A. Volkov
1996-12-01
Full Text Available We have used the global numerical model of the coupled ionosphere-thermosphere-protonosphere system to simulate the electric-field, ion- and electron-temperature and -concentration variations observed by EISCAT during the substorm event of 25 March 1987. In our previous studies we adopted the model input data for field-aligned currents and precipitating electron fluxes to obtain an agreement between observed and modelled ionospheric variations. Now, we have calculated the field-aligned currents needful to simulate the substrom variations of the electric field and other parameters observed by EISCAT. The calculations of the field-aligned currents have been performed by means of numerical integration of the time-dependent continuity equation for the cold magnetospheric electrons. This equation was added to the system of the modelling equations including the equation for the electric-field potential to be solved jointly. In this case the inputs of the model are the spatial and time variations of the electric-field potential at the polar-cap boundaries and those of the cold magnetospheric electron concentration which have been adopted to obtain the agreement between the observed and modelled ionospheric variations for the substorm event of 25 March 1987. By this means it has been found that during the active phase of the substorm the current wedge is formed. It is connected with the region of the decreased cold magnetospheric electron content travelling westwards with a velocity of about 1 km s–1 at ionospheric levels.
Seasonal variations of haematological parameters in athletes.
Banfi, Giuseppe; Lundby, Carsten; Robach, Paul; Lippi, Giuseppe
2011-01-01
The influence of training and competition workloads is crucial for evaluation of longitudinal haematological data in athletes. There are only a few papers on the variation of haematological parameters during long-lasting periods and, especially, during an entire competitive season. We summarized that some haematological parameters can be influenced by long-term training and competition periods. Haemoglobin (Hb) and haematocrit (Ht) are decreased during the more intense periods of training, throughout the season. In different sport disciplines, the decline of Hb ranges from 3 to 8% during the competition season, while the range of reticulocytes (Ret%) varies from 5 to 21%. Reticulocytes are also decreased after long periods of training and competitions, but their variation is not necessarily associated with that of Hb. The qualitative variations (trend of modifications) of haematological parameters are roughly independent of the sport discipline, but quantitatively (amount of modifications) dependent on sport discipline. The modifications are more evident in cycling, running, swimming than they are in football and rugby. The variations of haematological parameters within the same sport discipline are qualitatively concordant and quantitatively different among separate but consecutive competitive seasons. These findings are described in aerobic and team sports sportsmen. The definition of reliable reference ranges in sportsmen would only be possible by following the best laboratory practices. For antidoping purposes more studies investigating haematological modifications during the season are advisable.
Hopkins, David L; Holman, Benjamin W B; van de Ven, Remy J
2015-02-01
Carcase pH and temperature decline rates influence lamb tenderness; therefore pH decline parameters are beneficial when modelling tenderness. These include pH at temperature 18 °C (pH@Temp18), temperature when pH is 6 (Temp@pH6), and pH at 24 h post-mortem (pH24). This study aimed to establish a relationship between shear force (SF) as a proxy for tenderness and carcase pH decline parameters estimated using both linear and spline estimation models for the m. longissimus lumborum (LL). The study also compared abattoirs regarding their achievement of ideal pH decline, indicative of optimal tenderness. Based on SF measurements of LL and m. semimembranosus collected as part of the Information Nucleus slaughter programme (CRC for Sheep Industry Innovation) this study found significant relationships between tenderness and pH24LL, consistent across the meat cuts and ageing periods examined. Achievement of ideal pH decline was shown not to have significantly differed across abattoirs, although rates of pH decline varied significantly across years within abattoirs.
Degeling, Koen; IJzerman, Maarten J; Koopman, Miriam; Koffijberg, Hendrik
2017-01-01
Background Parametric distributions based on individual patient data can be used to represent both stochastic and parameter uncertainty. Although general guidance is available on how parameter uncertainty should be accounted for in probabilistic sensitivity analysis, there is no comprehensive
Degeling, Koen; Ijzerman, Maarten J.; Koopman, Miriam; Koffijberg, Hendrik
2017-01-01
Background: Parametric distributions based on individual patient data can be used to represent both stochastic and parameter uncertainty. Although general guidance is available on how parameter uncertainty should be accounted for in probabilistic sensitivity analysis, there is no comprehensive
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. A. Volkov
Full Text Available We have used the global numerical model of the coupled ionosphere-thermosphere-protonosphere system to simulate the electric-field, ion- and electron-temperature and -concentration variations observed by EISCAT during the substorm event of 25 March 1987. In our previous studies we adopted the model input data for field-aligned currents and precipitating electron fluxes to obtain an agreement between observed and modelled ionospheric variations. Now, we have calculated the field-aligned currents needful to simulate the substrom variations of the electric field and other parameters observed by EISCAT. The calculations of the field-aligned currents have been performed by means of numerical integration of the time-dependent continuity equation for the cold magnetospheric electrons. This equation was added to the system of the modelling equations including the equation for the electric-field potential to be solved jointly. In this case the inputs of the model are the spatial and time variations of the electric-field potential at the polar-cap boundaries and those of the cold magnetospheric electron concentration which have been adopted to obtain the agreement between the observed and modelled ionospheric variations for the substorm event of 25 March 1987. By this means it has been found that during the active phase of the substorm the current wedge is formed. It is connected with the region of the decreased cold magnetospheric electron content travelling westwards with a velocity of about 1 km s^{–1} at ionospheric levels.
Blake, S; Vial, P; Holloway, L; McNamara, A; Greer, P; Kuncic, Z
2012-06-01
To investigate the sensitivity of a Monte Carlo (MC) model of a standard clinical amorphous silicon (a-Si) electron portal imaging device (EPID) to variations in optical photon transport parameters. The Geant4 MC toolkit was used to develop a comprehensive model of an indirect-detection a-Si EPID incorporating x-ray and optical photon transport. The EPID was modeled as a series of uniform layers with properties specified by the manufacturer (PerkinElmer, Santa Clara, CA) of a research EPID at our centre. Optical processes that were modeled include bulk absorption, Rayleigh scattering, and boundary processes (reflection and refraction). Model performance was evaluated by scoring optical photons absorbed by the a-Si photodiode as a function of radial distance from a point source of x-rays on an event-by-event basis (0.025 mm resolution). Primary x-ray energies were sampled from a clinical 6 MV photon spectrum. Simulations were performed by varying optical transport parameters and the resulting point spread functions (PSFs) were compared. The optical parameters investigated include: x-ray transport cutoff thresholds; absorption path length; optical energy spectrum; refractive indices; and the 'roughness' of boundaries within phosphor screen layers. The transport cutoffs and refractive indices studied were found to minimally affect resulting PSFs. A monoenergetic optical spectrum slightly broadened the PSF in comparison with the use of a polyenergetic spectrum. The absorption path length only significantly altered the PSF when decreased drastically. Variations in the treatment of boundaries noticeably broadened resulting PSFs. Variation in optical transport parameters was found to affect resulting PSF calculations. Current work is focusing on repeating this analysis with a coarser resolution more typical of a commercial a-Si EPID to observe if these effects continue to alter the EPID PSF. Experimental measurement of the EPID line spread function to validate these
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ernazarov, K.K. [RUDN University, Institute of Gravitation and Cosmology, Moscow (Russian Federation); Ivashchuk, V.D. [RUDN University, Institute of Gravitation and Cosmology, Moscow (Russian Federation); VNIIMS, Center for Gravitation and Fundamental Metrology, Moscow (Russian Federation)
2017-06-15
We consider a D-dimensional gravitational model with a Gauss-Bonnet term and the cosmological term Λ. We restrict the metrics to diagonal cosmological ones and find for certain Λ a class of solutions with exponential time dependence of three scale factors, governed by three non-coinciding Hubble-like parameters H > 0, h{sub 1} and h{sub 2}, corresponding to factor spaces of dimensions m > 2, k{sub 1} > 1 and k{sub 2} > 1, respectively, with k{sub 1} ≠ k{sub 2} and D = 1 + m + k{sub 1} + k{sub 2}. Any of these solutions describes an exponential expansion of 3d subspace with Hubble parameter H and zero variation of the effective gravitational constant G. We prove the stability of these solutions in a class of cosmological solutions with diagonal metrics. (orig.)
Lee, J. C.; Liu, Z. Y. C.; Shirzaei, M.
2016-12-01
The Chihshang fault lies at the plate suture between the Eurasian and the Philippine Sea plates along the Longitudinal Valley in eastern Taiwan. Here we investigate depth variation of fault frictional parameters derived from the post-seismic slip model of the 2003 Mw 6.5 Chengkung earthquake. Assuming a rate-strengthening friction, we implement an inverse dynamic modeling scheme to estimate the frictional parameter (a-b) and reference friction coefficient (μ*) in depths by taking into account: pre-seismic stress as well as co-seismic and post-seismic coulomb stress changes associated with the 2003 Chengkung earthquake. We investigate two coseismic models by Hsu et al. (2009) and Thomas et al. (2014). Model parameters, including stress gradient, depth dependent a-b and μ*, are determined from fitting the transient post-seismic geodetic signal measured at 12 continuous GPS stations. In our inversion scheme, we apply a non-linear optimization algorithm, Genetic Algorithm (GA), to search for the optimum frictional parameters. Considering the zone with velocity-strengthening frictional properties along Chihshang fault, the optimum a-b is 7-8 × 10-3 along the shallow part of the fault (0-10 km depth) and 1-2 × 10-2 in 22-28 km depth. Optimum solution for μ* is 0.3-0.4 in 0-10 km depth and reaches 0.8 in 22-28 km depth. The optimized stress gradient is 54 MPa/ km. The inferred frictional parameters are consistent with the laboratory measurements on clay-rich fault zone gouges comparable to the Lichi Melange, which is thrust over Holocene alluvial deposits across the Chihshang fault, considering the main rock composition of the Chihshang fault, at least at the upper kilometers level of the fault. Our results can facilitate further studies in particular on seismic cycle and hazard assessment of active faults.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Shankar, Ravi; Mondal, Prasenjit; Chand, Shri [Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Uttaranchal (India). Dept. of Chemical Engineering
2013-11-01
In the present paper steady state models of a double chamber glucose glutamic acid microbial fuel cell (GGA-MFC) under continuous operation have been developed and solved using Matlab 2007 software. The experimental data reported in a recent literature has been used for the validation of the models. The present models give prediction on the cell voltage and cell power density with 19-44% errors, which is less (up to 20%) than the errors on the prediction of cell voltage made in some recent literature for the same MFC where the effects of the difference in pH and ionic conductivity between anodic and cathodic solutions on cell voltage were not incorporated in model equations. It also describes the changes in anodic and cathodic chamber temperature due to the increase in substrate concentration and cell current density. Temperature profile across the membrane thickness has also been studied. (orig.)
Response model parameter linking
Barrett, M.L.D.
2015-01-01
With a few exceptions, the problem of linking item response model parameters from different item calibrations has been conceptualized as an instance of the problem of equating observed scores on different test forms. This thesis argues, however, that the use of item response models does not require
Sex variations in the haemorheological parameters of some ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Sex variations in some haemorheological parameters: Haematocrit (Hct), Erythrocyte Sedimentation Rate (ESR), Hemoglobin concentration (Hbc), Fibrinogen concentration (FC), Relative Plasma Viscosity (RPV) and Whole Blood Relative Viscosity (WBRV) were determined in 30 male and 20 female hypertensive subjects ...
Total variation with automatic hyper-parameter estimation.
Nascimento, Jacinto; Sanches, João
2008-01-01
Medical diagnosis is often hampered by the quality of the images. This happens in a wide range of image modalities. Image noise reduction is a crucial step, however difficult to be accomplished. Bayesian algorithms have been commonly used with success, namely with additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) model. In fact, the noise corrupting some of the most used medical imaging modalities is not additive neither Gaussian but multiplicative described by Poisson or Rayleigh distributions. This paper proposes a unified framework with automatic hyper parameters estimation. The proposed framework deals with AWGN but also with both Poisson and Rayleigh distributions. The algorithm proposed herein, is based on a maximum a posteriori (MAP) criterion with the edge preserving prior based on the total variation (TV), which avoids the distortion of relevant anatomical details. The denoising technique is performed via single parametric iterative scheme parameterized for each noise model considered. Tests with real data from several medical imaging modalities testify the performance of the algorithm.
Wu, Hui; Hu, Liming; Wen, Qingbo
2017-06-01
Electro-osmotic consolidation is an effective method for soft ground improvement. A main limitation of previous numerical models on this technique is the ignorance of the non-linear variation of soil parameters. In the present study, a multi-field numerical model is developed with the consideration of the non-linear variation of soil parameters during electro-osmotic consolidation process. The numerical simulations on an axisymmetric model indicated that the non-linear variation of soil parameters showed remarkable impact on the development of the excess pore water pressure and degree of consolidation. A field experiment with complex geometry, boundary conditions, electrode configuration and voltage application was further simulated with the developed numerical model. The comparison between field and numerical data indicated that the numerical model coupling of the non-linear variation of soil parameters gave more reasonable results. The developed numerical model is capable to analyze engineering cases with complex operating conditions.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tavarekere N Nagaraja
Full Text Available Increased efficacy of radiotherapy (RT 4-8 h after Cilengitide treatment has been reported. We hypothesized that the effects of Cilengitide on tumor transvascular transfer parameters might underlie, and thus predict, this potentiation. Athymic rats with orthotopic U251 glioma were studied at ~21 days after implantation using dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE-MRI. Vascular parameters, viz: plasma volume fraction (v(p, forward volume transfer constant (K(trans and interstitial volume fraction (v(e of a contrast agent, were determined in tumor vasculature once before, and again in cohorts 2, 4, 8, 12 and 24 h after Cilengitide administration (4 mg/kg; N = 31; 6-7 per cohort. Perfusion-fixed brain sections were stained for von Willebrand factor to visualize vascular segments. A comparison of pre- and post-treatment parameters showed that the differences between MR indices before and after Cilengitide treatment pivoted around the 8 h time point, with 2 and 4 h groups showing increases, 12 and 24 h groups showing decreases, and values at the 8 h time point close to the baseline. The vascular parameter differences between group of 2 and 4 h and group of 12 and 24 h were significant for K(trans (p = 0.0001 and v(e (p = 0,0271. Vascular staining showed little variation with time after Cilengitide. The vascular normalization occurring 8 h after Cilengitide treatment coincided with similar previous reports of increased treatment efficacy when RT followed Cilengitide by 8 h. Pharmacological normalization of vasculature has the potential to increase sensitivity to RT. Evaluating acute temporal responses of tumor vasculature to putative anti-angiogenic drugs may help in optimizing their combination with other treatment modalities.
Krivolutsky, A. A.; Dement'eva, A. V.; Kukoleva, A. A.
2016-12-01
The results of a three-dimensional numerical simulation of changes in the temperature and wind within a height range of up to 100 km caused by changes in fluxes in the solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation in the 23rd solar activity cycle (which was characterized by unusually low values of UV-radiation fluxes) and also of global changes in the ozone content are presented. The simulation results showed that the response of the temperature to variations in the UV radiation are substantially of a nonzonal character, which is caused by the presence in the model of sources of quasi-stationary waves corresponding to the observational data.
Robustness of Acoustic Scattering Cancellation to Parameter Variations
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Claudia Guattari
2014-07-01
Full Text Available This contribution aims at investigating the possibility to cloak a spherical object from an acoustic wave by applying the scattering cancellation approach. In electromagnetism, the scattering problem is treated using the Mie expansion technique, through which the scattered field by a spherical object can be represented as a superposition of TE and TM spherical harmonics. It is possible to extend this concept to the acoustic field by defining an analogous approach; the pressure field, generated by an elastic wave impinging on a spherical object, can be expressed applying the Mie expansion technique, as well. In acoustics, to achieve scattering suppression at a given frequency, the constitutive parameters to control are density and compressibility. By varying these parameter values, it is possible to define an engineered material with anomalous properties, which cannot be found in nature, able to reduce the scattering cross-section (SCS from a spherical object. We propose a study about the effectiveness of the SCS reduction from an elastic sphere coated with a properly-designed acoustic metamaterial. The sensitivity of the SCS to parameter variations is analyzed for different coating thicknesses and sphere dimensions. Our analysis is supported by both the analytical modelling of the structure and numerical simulations.
Effects of variations in structural parameters on performance of switched parasitic arrays
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Mofolo, MRO
2011-09-01
Full Text Available to model random errors in such parameters. The effects of these variations on the performance of the SPA antenna are investigated using a numerical approach. Mutual coupling between the array elements is taken into consideration. The variations are modelled...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
William Gaida
2016-11-01
Full Text Available Remote sensing techniques have been widely used in forestry studies because they allow evaluation and monitoring of large areas. The Parque Estadual do Turvo (PET (17.491 ha is the largest fragment of preserved subtropical deciduous forest of South Brazil, representing an extension of the Misiones forest in Argentina (10.000 km². This area has great environmental importance and is adequate for performing remote sensing studies using high or even coarse-to-moderate spatial resolution data as well as related vegetation indices. Both, the reflectance and vegetation indices, are affected by external factors that change the spectral response of the surface components. Among the factors that can introduce errors in the interpretation of the images, topographic effects add spectral variability in satellite products. In addition, previous studies in subtropical forests showed that the geometry of data acquisition affects significantly the estimates of vegetation parameters derived from images acquired at off-nadir viewing or by large field-of-view (FOV sensors. This study aimed to evaluate the magnitude of the bidirectional reflectance variations and of the derived vegetation indices as a function of local topography using high spatial resolution data acquired by the RapidEye constellation of satellites.
Continuous radon measurements in schools: time variations and related parameters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Giovani, C.; Cappelletto, C.; Garavaglia, M.; Pividore, S.; Villalta, R.
2004-01-01
Some results are reported of observations made within a four-year survey, during different seasons and in different conditions of school building use. Natural radon variations (day-night cycles, seasonal and temperature dependent variations etc..) and artificial ones (opening of windows, weekends and vacations, deployment of air conditioning or heating systems. etc.) were investigated as parameters affecting time dependent radon concentrations. (P.A.)
Linking Item Response Model Parameters.
van der Linden, Wim J; Barrett, Michelle D
2016-09-01
With a few exceptions, the problem of linking item response model parameters from different item calibrations has been conceptualized as an instance of the problem of test equating scores on different test forms. This paper argues, however, that the use of item response models does not require any test score equating. Instead, it involves the necessity of parameter linking due to a fundamental problem inherent in the formal nature of these models-their general lack of identifiability. More specifically, item response model parameters need to be linked to adjust for the different effects of the identifiability restrictions used in separate item calibrations. Our main theorems characterize the formal nature of these linking functions for monotone, continuous response models, derive their specific shapes for different parameterizations of the 3PL model, and show how to identify them from the parameter values of the common items or persons in different linking designs.
variation of some waste stabilization pond parameters with shape
African Journals Online (AJOL)
θ θi then σ2 = 2d – 2d2 (1 – e-1/d). - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -. (5) the term, d, can be calculated by trial and error where θi. = time after impulse injection, days; and. Ci. = tracer response concentration at the exist stream, mg/l. VARIATION OF SOME WASTE STABILIZATION POND PARAMETERS WITH SHAPE. 111 ...
Impact of Parameter Variations on Multi-Core Chips
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Humenay, Eric; Tarjan, David; Skadron, Kevin
2006-01-01
...s. This paper introduces a pre-RTL, architectural modeling methodology that incorporates the impact of manufacturing and runtime temperature variations on delay and power for both combinational logic and SRAM structures...
Parameter choice in Banach space regularization under variational inequalities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hofmann, Bernd; Mathé, Peter
2012-01-01
The authors study parameter choice strategies for the Tikhonov regularization of nonlinear ill-posed problems in Banach spaces. The effectiveness of any parameter choice for obtaining convergence rates depends on the interplay of the solution smoothness and the nonlinearity structure, and it can be expressed concisely in terms of variational inequalities. Such inequalities are link conditions between the penalty term, the norm misfit and the corresponding error measure. The parameter choices under consideration include an a priori choice, the discrepancy principle as well as the Lepskii principle. For the convenience of the reader, the authors review in an appendix a few instances where the validity of a variational inequality can be established. (paper)
Lattice variation and thermal parameters of gel grown KDP crystals ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Pure and impurity added (with NH4Cl, NH4NO3, NH4H2PO4, and (NH4)2SO4) KDP single crystals were grown by the gel method using silica gels. X-ray diffraction data were collected for powder samples and used for the estimation of lattice variation and thermal parameters like Debye–Waller factor, mean-square ...
Solutions of fractional diffusion equations by variation of parameters method
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mohyud-Din Syed Tauseef
2015-01-01
Full Text Available This article is devoted to establish a novel analytical solution scheme for the fractional diffusion equations. Caputo’s formulation followed by the variation of parameters method has been employed to obtain the analytical solutions. Following the derived analytical scheme, solution of the fractional diffusion equation for several initial functions has been obtained. Graphs are plotted to see the physical behavior of obtained solutions.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Cihat Arslantürk
2016-08-01
Full Text Available The performance of pin fins transferring heat by convection and radiation and having variable thermal conductivity, variable emissivity and variable heat transfer coefficient was investigated in the present paper. Nondimensionalizing the fin equation, the problem parameters which affect the fin performance were obtained. Dimensionless nonlinear fin equation was solved with the variation of parameters method, which is quite new in the solution of nonlinear heat transfer problems. The solution of variation of parameters method was compared with known analytical solutions and some numerical solution. The comparisons showed that the solutions are seen to be perfectly compatible. The effects of problem parameters were investigated on the heat transfer rate and fin efficiency and results were presented graphically.
Variational methods in molecular modeling
2017-01-01
This book presents tutorial overviews for many applications of variational methods to molecular modeling. Topics discussed include the Gibbs-Bogoliubov-Feynman variational principle, square-gradient models, classical density functional theories, self-consistent-field theories, phase-field methods, Ginzburg-Landau and Helfrich-type phenomenological models, dynamical density functional theory, and variational Monte Carlo methods. Illustrative examples are given to facilitate understanding of the basic concepts and quantitative prediction of the properties and rich behavior of diverse many-body systems ranging from inhomogeneous fluids, electrolytes and ionic liquids in micropores, colloidal dispersions, liquid crystals, polymer blends, lipid membranes, microemulsions, magnetic materials and high-temperature superconductors. All chapters are written by leading experts in the field and illustrated with tutorial examples for their practical applications to specific subjects. With emphasis placed on physical unders...
Source term modelling parameters for Project-90
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shaw, W.; Smith, G.; Worgan, K.; Hodgkinson, D.; Andersson, K.
1992-04-01
This document summarises the input parameters for the source term modelling within Project-90. In the first place, the parameters relate to the CALIBRE near-field code which was developed for the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate's (SKI) Project-90 reference repository safety assessment exercise. An attempt has been made to give best estimate values and, where appropriate, a range which is related to variations around base cases. It should be noted that the data sets contain amendments to those considered by KBS-3. In particular, a completely new set of inventory data has been incorporated. The information given here does not constitute a complete set of parameter values for all parts of the CALIBRE code. Rather, it gives the key parameter values which are used in the constituent models within CALIBRE and the associated studies. For example, the inventory data acts as an input to the calculation of the oxidant production rates, which influence the generation of a redox front. The same data is also an initial value data set for the radionuclide migration component of CALIBRE. Similarly, the geometrical parameters of the near-field are common to both sub-models. The principal common parameters are gathered here for ease of reference and avoidance of unnecessary duplication and transcription errors. (au)
Altitudinal variation in metabolic parameters of a small Afrotropical bird.
Thompson, Lindy J; Downs, Colleen T
2017-10-01
Of the numerous factors affecting avian metabolic rate, altitude is one of the least studied. We used mass-flow respirometry to measure resting metabolic rate (RMR), evaporative water loss (EWL) and respiratory exchange ratio (RER) in two populations of a small (10-12g) Afrotropical bird, the Cape White-eye (Zosterops virens), in summer and in winter. In total, 51 freshly wild-caught adult Cape White-eyes were measured overnight. Altitude was included as a source of variation in the best approximating models for body mass, whole-animal RMR, RER, whole-animal standard EWL and whole-animal basal EWL. RER was significantly lower in winter, suggesting a greater proportion of lipid oxidation at lower ambient temperatures (T a ). Cape White-eyes were 0.8g heavier at the higher altitude site and 0.5g heavier in winter, suggesting they may have increased their metabolic machinery to cope with cooler temperatures. EWL was generally significantly lower in winter than in summer, suggesting that birds may increase EWL with increasing T a , as the need for evaporative cooling increases. Our results support the argument that the subtle and complex effects of altitude (and ambient temperature) should be taken into account in studies on avian metabolic rate. Of the numerous studies known to affect avian metabolic rate, altitude is one of the least studied. Although trends are not always clear, generally, at higher altitudes, avian metabolic rate increases. There were statistically significant seasonal and altitudinal differences in various physiological parameters of Cape White-eyes. These results highlight the importance of accounting for altitude in studies of avian metabolic rate. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Volume variation of Gruneisen parameters of fcc transition metals
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Unknown
ultrasonic measurements and melting of solids (Mulargia and Boschi 1978 .... Several studies in the past based on model pseudo- potential suggest ... Volume variation of fcc transition metals. 65. The present value for Cu is in good agreement with the experimental values. Also, the presently obtained value agrees well with ...
Variations of some parameters of enzyme induction in chemical workers
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Dolara, P. (Univ. of Florence, Italy); Lodovici, M.; Buffoni, F.; Buiatti, E.; Baccetti, S.; Ciofini, O.; Bavazzano, P.; Barchielli, S.; Vannucci, V.
1982-01-01
Several parameters related to mono-oxygenase activity were followed in a population of chemical workers and controls. Workers exposed to toluene and xylene had a significant increase of urinary glucaric acid, that was correlated with hippuric acid excretion. On the other hand, workers exposed to pigments showed a marked increase of antipyrine half-life. A dose-related decrease of liver N-demethylase was induced in rats by the administration of a mixture of three of the pigments in use in the plant. Serum gamma-glutamyltranspeptidase was decreased in the workers exposed to pigments, but this variation was not statistically significant. The exposure to different chemicals in the workplace seemed to induce a complicated variation of mono-oxygenase levels, some enzyme being inhibited and others induced in the same group of workers. The sensitivity of these workers to toxic effects of chemicals, carcinogenic compounds and drugs seems to differ markedly from the control population.
ANALYSIS THE DIURNAL VARIATIONS ON SELECTED PHYSICAL AND PHYSIOLOGICAL PARAMETERS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. MAHABOOBJAN
2010-12-01
Full Text Available The purpose of the study was to analyze the diurnal variations on selected physical and physiological parameters such as speed, explosive power, resting heart rate and breath holding time among college students. To achieve the purpose of this study, a total of twenty players (n=20 from Government Arts College, Salem were selected as subjects To study the diurnal variation of the players on selected physiological and performance variables, the data were collected 4 times a day with every four hours in between the times it from 6.00 to 18.00 hours were selected as another categorical variable. One way repeated measures (ANOVA was used to analyze the data. If the obtained F-ratio was significant, Seheffe’s post-hoc test was used to find out the significant difference if anyamong the paired means. The level of significance was fixed at.05 level. It has concluded that both physical and physiological parameters were significantly deferred with reference to change of temperature in a day
Equilibrium models and variational inequalities
Konnov, Igor
2007-01-01
The concept of equilibrium plays a central role in various applied sciences, such as physics (especially, mechanics), economics, engineering, transportation, sociology, chemistry, biology and other fields. If one can formulate the equilibrium problem in the form of a mathematical model, solutions of the corresponding problem can be used for forecasting the future behavior of very complex systems and, also, for correcting the the current state of the system under control. This book presents a unifying look on different equilibrium concepts in economics, including several models from related sciences.- Presents a unifying look on different equilibrium concepts and also the present state of investigations in this field- Describes static and dynamic input-output models, Walras, Cassel-Wald, spatial price, auction market, oligopolistic equilibrium models, transportation and migration equilibrium models- Covers the basics of theory and solution methods both for the complementarity and variational inequality probl...
Omura, J.; Han, P.; Yoshino, C.; Hattori, K.; Shimo, M.; Konishi, T.; Furuya, R.
2017-12-01
The Ionospheric anomaly is one of the most promising precursory phenomena for large earthquakes. Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model has been proposed to explain these phenomena. To examine the possibility of the chemical channel of LAIC model through the monitoring of atmospheric electricity parameters, we have installed sensors for the atmospheric electric field (AEF), atmospheric ion concentration (AIC), radon concentration, radon exhalation quantity (REQ), and weather elements. To detect signals related to earthquakes, variations caused by non-tectonic activities should be removed. In this aim, we performed Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) for observed time series of radon and climatic parameters and investigated correlation among them. Then we tried to extract radon variation influenced by climatic effect to remove such variations from original time series. The details will be shown in our presentation.
The Degree Semantics Parameter and cross-linguistic variation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Ryan Bochnak
2015-03-01
Full Text Available The standard degree analysis of gradability in English holds that the function of degree morphology, such as the comparative, measure phrases, and degree adverbs, is to bind a degree variable located in the lexical semantics of gradable predicates. In this paper, I investigate gradation structures in Washo (isolate/Hokan, and claim that this language systematically lacks degree morphology of this sort. I propose that this gap in the functional inventory of Washo stems from a parameter on whether languages are able to introduce degree variables into the logical form that can be bound by such operators, providing further cross-linguistic support for a similar proposal made by Beck et al. (2009 for Motu (Austronesian. Specifically, I argue that gradable predicates in Washo do not introduce a degree variable. Consequently, if we assume that gradable predicates in English are type ⟨d, ⟨e, t⟩⟩, then Washo and English must differ in their lexical semantics for gradable predicates. Alternatively, if we want to maintain lexical uniformity between the two languages (i.e., that gradable predicates in English don’t themselves introduce degrees, then we must place variation at the level of a grammatical mechanism that introduces degrees in English for degree operators to bind, but which is lacking in Washo. The results of this investigation thus inform questions about the nature of cross-linguistic variation, specifically the division of labor between variation in functional categories and the lexicon. http://dx.doi.org/10.3765/sp.8.6 BibTeX info
Parameter optimization for surface flux transport models
Whitbread, T.; Yeates, A. R.; Muñoz-Jaramillo, A.; Petrie, G. J. D.
2017-11-01
Accurate prediction of solar activity calls for precise calibration of solar cycle models. Consequently we aim to find optimal parameters for models which describe the physical processes on the solar surface, which in turn act as proxies for what occurs in the interior and provide source terms for coronal models. We use a genetic algorithm to optimize surface flux transport models using National Solar Observatory (NSO) magnetogram data for Solar Cycle 23. This is applied to both a 1D model that inserts new magnetic flux in the form of idealized bipolar magnetic regions, and also to a 2D model that assimilates specific shapes of real active regions. The genetic algorithm searches for parameter sets (meridional flow speed and profile, supergranular diffusivity, initial magnetic field, and radial decay time) that produce the best fit between observed and simulated butterfly diagrams, weighted by a latitude-dependent error structure which reflects uncertainty in observations. Due to the easily adaptable nature of the 2D model, the optimization process is repeated for Cycles 21, 22, and 24 in order to analyse cycle-to-cycle variation of the optimal solution. We find that the ranges and optimal solutions for the various regimes are in reasonable agreement with results from the literature, both theoretical and observational. The optimal meridional flow profiles for each regime are almost entirely within observational bounds determined by magnetic feature tracking, with the 2D model being able to accommodate the mean observed profile more successfully. Differences between models appear to be important in deciding values for the diffusive and decay terms. In like fashion, differences in the behaviours of different solar cycles lead to contrasts in parameters defining the meridional flow and initial field strength.
Variation of 137Cs migration parameters in soils
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Silant'ev, A.N.; Shkuratova, I.G.
1988-01-01
Quasidiffusion model accounting the oriented migration is used to describe the observed profiles of 137 Cs distribution in soil. A way of model use in case of real soil, the quasidiffusion migration factor being varied, is suggested. It is shown that in the upper thin soil layer the quasidiffusion migration factor and oriented migration rate values are constant. With further increase of depth the quasidiffusion coefficient grows, the oriented migration rate is unchanged. On the basis of location data characteristic values of migration parameters for different soils of the USSR European territory depending on the soil texture, vegetative cover and moistening are determined
Variation of physicochemical parameters during a composting process
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Faria C, D.M.; Ballesteros, M.I.; Bendeck, M.
1999-01-01
Two composting processes were carried out; they lasted for about 165 days. In one of the processes the decomposition of the material was performed only by microorganisms only (direct composting) and in the other one, by microorganisms and earthworms -Eisenla foetida- (indirect composting). The first one was carried out in a composting system called c amas a nd the indirect one was carried out in its initial phase in a system of p anelas , then the wastes were transferred to a c ama . The materials were treated in both processes with lime, ammonium nitrate and microorganisms. Periodical samples were taken from different places of the pile and a temperature control was made weekly. The following physicochemical parameters were analyzed in each sample: Humidity, color, pH soil : water in ratios of 1:5 and 1:10, ash, organic matter, CIC, contents of carbon and nitrogen and C/N ratio. In the aqueous extract, C/N ratio and percentage of hydro solubles were analyzed. It was also made a germination assay taking measurements of the percentage of garden cress seeds (Lepidium sativum) that germinated in the aqueous extract. The parameters variation in each process let us to establish that the greatest changes in the material happened in the initial phases of the process (thermophilic and mesophilic phases); the presence of microorganisms was the limiting factor in the dynamic of the process; on the other hand, the earthworm addition did not accelerate the mineralization of organic matter. The results let us to establish that the color determination is not an effective parameter in order to evaluate the degree of maturity of the compost. Other parameters such as temperature and germination percentage can be made as routine test to determine the process rate. Determination of CIC, ash and hydro solubles content are recommended to evaluate the optimal maturity degree in the material. It is proposed changes such as to reduce the composting time to a maximum of 100 days and to
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Norgaard, Trine; De Jonge, L. W.; Møldrup, Per
2015-01-01
The large spatial heterogeneity in soil physico-chemical and microbial parameters challenges our ability to predict and model pesticide leaching from agricultural land. Microbial mineralization of pesticides is an important process with respect to pesticide leaching since mineralization...... is the major process for the complete degradation of pesticides without generation of metabolites. The aim of our study was to determine field-scale variation in the potential for mineralization of the herbicides glyphosate, bromoxyniloctanoate, diflufenican, and bentazone and to investigate whether...... this variation can be predicted by variations in basic soil parameters. Sixty-five soil samples were sampled from an agricultural, loamy field in Silstrup, Denmark, from a 60 × 165 m rectangular grid. The mineralization potential of the four pesticides was determined using a 96-well microplate 14C...
A variational study of superconducting correlations within periodic Anderson model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dua, Piyush; Panwar, Sunil; Singh, Ishwar
2005-01-01
In this work we present the study of heavy fermion (HF) systems represented by the extended periodic Anderson model (PAM). A term, which contains the superconducting correlations, has been included in the conventional PAM. The study has been carried out at finite U. We have used the variational method. The variational wavefunction contains two variational parameters A kσ and B kσ . We have found that both the variational parameters are mutually dependent. We have studied ground state as well as finite temperature properties. We have found that T c increases, as J increases
Variation of wave directional spread parameters along the Indian coast
Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)
SanilKumar, V.
collected at four locations along the East as well as the West side of the Indian coast. The directional spreading parameter was correlated with other characteristic wave parameters, like non-linearity parameter, and directional width. Working empirical...
A study on parameter variation effects on battery packs for electric vehicles
Zhou, Long; Zheng, Yuejiu; Ouyang, Minggao; Lu, Languang
2017-10-01
As one single cell cannot meet power and driving range requirement in an electric vehicle, the battery packs with hundreds of single cells connected in parallel and series should be constructed. The most significant difference between a single cell and a battery pack is cell variation. Not only does cell variation affect pack energy density and power density, but also it causes early degradation of battery and potential safety issues. The cell variation effects on battery packs are studied, which are of great significant to battery pack screening and management scheme. In this study, the description for the consistency characteristics of battery packs was first proposed and a pack model with 96 cells connected in series was established. A set of parameters are introduced to study the cell variation and their impacts on battery packs are analyzed through the battery pack capacity loss simulation and experiments. Meanwhile, the capacity loss composition of the battery pack is obtained and verified by the temperature variation experiment. The results from this research can demonstrate that the temperature, self-discharge rate and coulombic efficiency are the major affecting parameters of cell variation and indicate the dissipative cell equalization is sufficient for the battery pack.
Permeability Variation Models for Unsaturated Coalbed Methane Reservoirs
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lv Yumin
2016-05-01
Full Text Available A large number of models have been established to describe permeability variation with the depletion of reservoir pressure to date. However, no attempt has been made to draw enough attention to the difference in the effect of various factors on permeability variation in different production stages of unsaturated CoalBed Methane (CBM reservoirs. This paper summarizes the existing and common permeability models, determines the relationship between various effects (effective stress effect, matrix shrinkage effect and Klinkenberg effect and desorption characteristics of the recovery of unsaturated CBM reservoirs, then establishes two improved models to quantificationally describe permeability variation, and finally discusses the effects of various factors (gas saturation, cleat porosity, Poisson’s ratio and shrinkage coefficient on permeability variation. The results show that permeability variation during the recovery of unsaturated CBM reservoirs can be divided into two stages: the first one is that permeability variation is only affected by the effective stress effect, and the second is that permeability variation is affected by the combination of the effective stress effect, matrix shrinkage effect and Klinkenberg effect. In the second stage, matrix shrinkage effect and Klinkenberg effect play much more significant role than the effective stress effect, which leads to an increase in permeability with depletion of reservoir pressure. Sensitivity analysis of parameters in the improved models reveals that those parameters associated with gas saturation, such as gas content, reservoir pressure, Langmuir volume and Langmuir pressure, have a significant impact on permeability variation in the first stage, and the important parameters in the second stage are the gas content, reservoir pressure, Langmuir volume, Langmuir pressure, Poisson’s ratio, Young’s modulus and shrinkage coefficient during the depletion of reservoir pressure. A comparative
High frequency variations of Earth Rotation Parameters from GPS and GLONASS observations.
Wei, Erhu; Jin, Shuanggen; Wan, Lihua; Liu, Wenjie; Yang, Yali; Hu, Zhenghong
2015-01-28
The Earth's rotation undergoes changes with the influence of geophysical factors, such as Earth's surface fluid mass redistribution of the atmosphere, ocean and hydrology. However, variations of Earth Rotation Parameters (ERP) are still not well understood, particularly the short-period variations (e.g., diurnal and semi-diurnal variations) and their causes. In this paper, the hourly time series of Earth Rotation Parameters are estimated using Global Positioning System (GPS), Global Navigation Satellite System (GLONASS), and combining GPS and GLONASS data collected from nearly 80 sites from 1 November 2012 to 10 April 2014. These new observations with combining different satellite systems can help to decorrelate orbit biases and ERP, which improve estimation of ERP. The high frequency variations of ERP are analyzed using a de-trending method. The maximum of total diurnal and semidiurnal variations are within one milli-arcseconds (mas) in Polar Motion (PM) and 0.5 milli-seconds (ms) in UT1-UTC. The semidiurnal and diurnal variations are mainly related to the ocean tides. Furthermore, the impacts of satellite orbit and time interval used to determinate ERP on the amplitudes of tidal terms are analyzed. We obtain some small terms that are not described in the ocean tide model of the IERS Conventions 2010, which may be caused by the strategies and models we used or the signal noises as well as artifacts. In addition, there are also small differences on the amplitudes between our results and IERS convention. This might be a result of other geophysical excitations, such as the high-frequency variations in atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) and hydrological angular momentum (HAM), which needs more detailed analysis with more geophysical data in the future.
Diurnal variation in blood parameters in the chicken in the hot ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Variations in the levels of these parameters throughout the 24 hours were determined. Thirteen out of the parameters measured showed significant diurnal variations. These include RBC, PCV, Hb, MVC, WBC, Na+, K+, urea, cholesterol, triglycerides, ALP, GPT and GGT. Keywords: Diurnal variation; blood picture; chicken.
Bilek, S. L.; Moyer, P. A.; Stankova-Pursley, J.
2010-12-01
Geodetically determined interseismic coupling variations have been found in subduction zones worldwide. These coupling variations have been linked to heterogeneities in interplate fault frictional conditions. These connections to fault friction imply that observed coupling variations are also important in influencing details in earthquake rupture behavior. Because of the wealth of newly available geodetic models along many subduction zones, it is now possible to examine detailed variations in coupling and compare to seismicity characteristics. Here we use a large catalog of earthquake source time functions and slip models for moderate to large magnitude earthquakes to explore these connections, comparing earthquake source parameters with available models of geodetic coupling along segments of the Japan, Kurile, Kamchatka, Peru, Chile, and Alaska subduction zones. In addition, we use published geodetic results along the Costa Rica margin to compare with source parameters of small magnitude earthquakes recorded with an onshore-offshore network of seismometers. For the moderate to large magnitude earthquakes, preliminary results suggest a complex relationship between earthquake parameters and estimates of strongly and weakly coupled segments of the plate interface. For example, along the Kamchatka subduction zone, these earthquakes occur primarily along the transition between strong and weak coupling, with significant heterogeneity in the pattern of moment scaled duration with respect to the coupling estimates. The longest scaled duration event in this catalog occurred in a region of strong coupling. Earthquakes along the transition between strong and weakly coupled exhibited the most complexity in the source time functions. Use of small magnitude (0.5 earthquake spectra, with higher corner frequencies and higher mean apparent stress for earthquakes that occur in along the Osa Peninsula relative to the Nicoya Peninsula, mimicking the along-strike variations in
Kocaturk, Huseyin; Kumral, Mustafa
2016-04-01
Plate tectonics is one of the most illustrated theory and biggest geo-dynamic incident on earth surface and sub-surface for the earth science. Tectonic settlement, rock forming minerals, form of stratigraphy, ore genesis processes, crystal structures and even rock textures are all related with plate tectonic. One of the most known region of Turkey is Southern part of Uludaǧ and has been defined with three main lithological union. Region is formed with metamorphics, ophiolites and magmatic intrusions which are generally I-type granodiorites. Also these intrusion related rocks has formed and altered by high grade hydrothermal activity. This study approaches to understand bigger to smaller frameworks of these processes which between plate tectonics and fluid pathways. Geodynamic related fuzzy logic modelling is present us compact conclusion report about structural associations for the economic generations. Deformation structures and fluid pathways which related with plate tectonics progressed on our forearc system and each steps of dynamic movements of subducting mechanism has been seemed affect both hydrothermal stages and mineral variations together. Types of each deformation structure and mineral assemblages has characterized for flux estimations which can be useful for subsurface mapping. Geoanalytical results showed us clear characteristic stories for mutual processes. Determined compression and release directions on our map explains not only hydrothermal stages but also how succesion of intrusions changes. Our fuzzy logic models intersect sections of physical and chemical interactions of study field. Researched parameters like mafic minerals and enclave ratios on different deformation structures, cross sections of structures and relative existing sequence are all changes with different time periods like geochemical environment and each vein. With the combined informations in one scene we can transact mineralization processes about region which occurs in
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Awadallah, Mohamed A.
2016-01-01
Highlights: • Bacterial foraging algorithm is used to extract PV model parameters from nameplate data. • Five variations of the bacterial foraging algorithm are compared on a simple objective function. • Best results obtained when swarming is neglected, step size is varied, and global best is preserved. • The technique is successfully applied on single- and double-diode models. • Matching between computation and measurements validates the obtained set of parameters. - Abstract: The paper introduces the task of parameter extraction of photovoltaic (PV) modules as a nonlinear optimization problem. The concerned parameters are the series resistance, shunt resistance, diode ideality factor, and diode reverse saturation current for both the single- and double-diode models. An error function representing the mismatch between computed and targeted performance is minimized using different versions of the bacterial foraging (BF) algorithm of global search and heuristic optimization. The targeted performance is obtained from the nameplate data of the PV module. Five distinct variations of the BF algorithm are used to solve the problem independently for the single- and double-diode models. The best optimization results are obtained when swarming is eliminated, chemotactic step size is dynamically varied, and global best is preserved, all acting together. Under such conditions, the best global minimum of 0.0028 is reached in an average best time of 94.4 sec for the single-diode model. However, it takes an average of 153 sec to reach the best global minimum of 0.0021 in case of double-diode model. An experimental verification study involves the comparison of computed performance to measurements on an Eclipsall PV module. It is shown that all variants of the BF algorithm could reach equivalent-circuit parameters with accepted accuracy by solving the optimization problem. The good matching between analytical and experimental results indicates the effectiveness of the
Estimation of shape model parameters for 3D surfaces
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Erbou, Søren Gylling Hemmingsen; Darkner, Sune; Fripp, Jurgen
2008-01-01
is applied to a database of 3D surfaces from a section of the porcine pelvic bone extracted from 33 CT scans. A leave-one-out validation shows that the parameters of the first 3 modes of the shape model can be predicted with a mean difference within [-0.01,0.02] from the true mean, with a standard deviation......Statistical shape models are widely used as a compact way of representing shape variation. Fitting a shape model to unseen data enables characterizing the data in terms of the model parameters. In this paper a Gauss-Newton optimization scheme is proposed to estimate shape model parameters of 3D...... surfaces using distance maps, which enables the estimation of model parameters without the requirement of point correspondence. For applications with acquisition limitations such as speed and cost, this formulation enables the fitting of a statistical shape model to arbitrarily sampled data. The method...
Models of Solar Irradiance Variations: Current Status
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
2016-01-27
Jan 27, 2016 ... Whereas variations on time scales of minutes to hours are due to solar oscillations and granulation, variations on longer time scales are driven by the evolution of the solar surface magnetic field. Here the most recent advances in modelling of solar irradiance variations on time scales longer than a day are ...
The Effects of Structural Parameter Variation on Cable Force of Fast Cable-Net Structure
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Qiming Wang
2014-02-01
Full Text Available Five-hundred-meter aperture spherical radio telescope (FAST is supported by a cable-net structure, which enables its surface to form a real-time paraboloid by active control. FAST project is currently in the construction and implementation stage. However, there are always a considerable amount of errors that existed in practice which may result in the deviation of the structure from its ideal model or design. Therefore, structural parameter sensitivity analysis was discussed, which is indispensable. However, such deformation operation would lead to about 500 MPa of fatigue stress variation amplitude in the cable-net structure. Optimized deformation strategy is proposed to release the fatigue stress of the cable-net structure, which would be of advantage to improve the reliability of the cable-net structure. In the paper, the variation ranges of structural parameters were rationally determined. Based on local sensitivity analysis and global sensitivity analysis method, finite element model was used to study the effect of different structural parameters on the static behavior. It can be concluded that the effect of several key design parameters such as the cutting length and the elastic modulus of cable on the cable force is significant. The global sensitivity analysis indicates that the cable force range of the cable-net is −19% to 27%.
Variation of semen parameters in healthy medical students due to ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Aim. This study was aimed at investigating semen parameters that vary most in samples of healthy donors undergoing stressful examination period. Methods Samples were left to liquefy in an incubator at 37°C, 5% CO2 for 30 minutes before volume was measured. Concentration and motility parameters were measured by ...
Volume variation of Gruneisen parameters of fcc transition metals
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Unknown
average discrepancy between the values of γ measured by various methods for 23 metals. Experimentally only the total Gruneisen parameter can be measured. The total. Gruneisen parameter is the sum of lattice, electronic and probably magnetic contribution. The letter term is present in palladium (White and Pawlok 1970) ...
Seasonal variation of meteorological factors on air parameters and ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The impacts of gas flaring on meteorological factors at Ibeno, Eket, Onna, Esit Eket and Umudike - Nigeria were investigated by measuring air quality parameters. The results show that the mean concentration of air parameters value were below Federal Environmental Protection Agency (FEPA) and United States ...
Seasonal variation of meteorological factors on air parameters and ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
user
The impacts of gas flaring on meteorological factors at Ibeno, Eket, Onna, Esit Eket and Umudike -. Nigeria were investigated by measuring air quality parameters. The results show that the mean concentration of air parameters value were below Federal Environmental Protection Agency (FEPA) and. United States ...
Variation in some haematological parameters and levels of selected ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
absorbed cosmetic-borne toxic metals in cosmetologists and heavy cosmetic users in Benin City, using haematological parameters and toxic metal levels as indices. Methods: The cosmetologists (n=50; mean age, 25.4 yrs.) comprised of female ...
Variations of aerosol optical depth and Angstrom parameters at a ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
parts of the world (America and Europe) have been performed .... peak in June. The variations of AOD in this region may be at- tributed to different weather conditions. Zanjan is affected by continental airmass coming from North. Africa, Saudi Arabia and ..... SSW winds could be the main reason of the highest β around 0.28.
Modeling Chinese ionospheric layer parameters based on EOF analysis
Yu, You; Wan, Weixing
2016-04-01
Using 24-ionosonde observations in and around China during the 20th solar cycle, an assimilative model is constructed to map the ionospheric layer parameters (foF2, hmF2, M(3000)F2, and foE) over China based on empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. First, we decompose the background maps from the International Reference Ionosphere model 2007 (IRI-07) into different EOF modes. The obtained EOF modes consist of two factors: the EOF patterns and the corresponding EOF amplitudes. These two factors individually reflect the spatial distributions (e.g., the latitudinal dependence such as the equatorial ionization anomaly structure and the longitude structure with east-west difference) and temporal variations on different time scales (e.g., solar cycle, annual, semiannual, and diurnal variations) of the layer parameters. Then, the EOF patterns and long-term observations of ionosondes are assimilated to get the observed EOF amplitudes, which are further used to construct the Chinese Ionospheric Maps (CIMs) of the layer parameters. In contrast with the IRI-07 model, the mapped CIMs successfully capture the inherent temporal and spatial variations of the ionospheric layer parameters. Finally, comparison of the modeled (EOF and IRI-07 model) and observed values reveals that the EOF model reproduces the observation with smaller root-mean-square errors and higher linear correlation co- efficients. In addition, IRI discrepancy at the low latitude especially for foF2 is effectively removed by EOF model.
Transformations among CE–CVM model parameters for ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
In the development of thermodynamic databases for multicomponent systems using the cluster expansion–cluster variation methods, we need to have a consistent procedure for expressing the model parameters (CECs) of a higher order system in terms of those of the lower order subsystems and to an independent set of ...
Robust estimation of hydrological model parameters
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. Bárdossy
2008-11-01
Full Text Available The estimation of hydrological model parameters is a challenging task. With increasing capacity of computational power several complex optimization algorithms have emerged, but none of the algorithms gives a unique and very best parameter vector. The parameters of fitted hydrological models depend upon the input data. The quality of input data cannot be assured as there may be measurement errors for both input and state variables. In this study a methodology has been developed to find a set of robust parameter vectors for a hydrological model. To see the effect of observational error on parameters, stochastically generated synthetic measurement errors were applied to observed discharge and temperature data. With this modified data, the model was calibrated and the effect of measurement errors on parameters was analysed. It was found that the measurement errors have a significant effect on the best performing parameter vector. The erroneous data led to very different optimal parameter vectors. To overcome this problem and to find a set of robust parameter vectors, a geometrical approach based on Tukey's half space depth was used. The depth of the set of N randomly generated parameters was calculated with respect to the set with the best model performance (Nash-Sutclife efficiency was used for this study for each parameter vector. Based on the depth of parameter vectors, one can find a set of robust parameter vectors. The results show that the parameters chosen according to the above criteria have low sensitivity and perform well when transfered to a different time period. The method is demonstrated on the upper Neckar catchment in Germany. The conceptual HBV model was used for this study.
Model parameter updating using Bayesian networks
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Treml, C. A. (Christine A.); Ross, Timothy J.
2004-01-01
This paper outlines a model parameter updating technique for a new method of model validation using a modified model reference adaptive control (MRAC) framework with Bayesian Networks (BNs). The model parameter updating within this method is generic in the sense that the model/simulation to be validated is treated as a black box. It must have updateable parameters to which its outputs are sensitive, and those outputs must have metrics that can be compared to that of the model reference, i.e., experimental data. Furthermore, no assumptions are made about the statistics of the model parameter uncertainty, only upper and lower bounds need to be specified. This method is designed for situations where a model is not intended to predict a complete point-by-point time domain description of the item/system behavior; rather, there are specific points, features, or events of interest that need to be predicted. These specific points are compared to the model reference derived from actual experimental data. The logic for updating the model parameters to match the model reference is formed via a BN. The nodes of this BN consist of updateable model input parameters and the specific output values or features of interest. Each time the model is executed, the input/output pairs are used to adapt the conditional probabilities of the BN. Each iteration further refines the inferred model parameters to produce the desired model output. After parameter updating is complete and model inputs are inferred, reliabilities for the model output are supplied. Finally, this method is applied to a simulation of a resonance control cooling system for a prototype coupled cavity linac. The results are compared to experimental data.
Optimal parameters for the FFA-Beddoes dynamic stall model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bjoerck, A.; Mert, M. [FFA, The Aeronautical Research Institute of Sweden, Bromma (Sweden); Madsen, H.A. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)
1999-03-01
Unsteady aerodynamic effects, like dynamic stall, must be considered in calculation of dynamic forces for wind turbines. Models incorporated in aero-elastic programs are of semi-empirical nature. Resulting aerodynamic forces therefore depend on values used for the semi-empiricial parameters. In this paper a study of finding appropriate parameters to use with the Beddoes-Leishman model is discussed. Minimisation of the `tracking error` between results from 2D wind tunnel tests and simulation with the model is used to find optimum values for the parameters. The resulting optimum parameters show a large variation from case to case. Using these different sets of optimum parameters in the calculation of blade vibrations, give rise to quite different predictions of aerodynamic damping which is discussed. (au)
On parameter estimation in deformable models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fisker, Rune; Carstensen, Jens Michael
1998-01-01
Deformable templates have been intensively studied in image analysis through the last decade, but despite its significance the estimation of model parameters has received little attention. We present a method for supervised and unsupervised model parameter estimation using a general Bayesian form...
Seasonal variation of meteorological factors on air parameters and ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
user
Onna. Air quality parameters (Cl-, SPM and SO2) were found to have positive correlation with vapour pressure, humidity and rainfall values in the study areas. It was also established that a positive correlation exits between NO2, H2S, SO2, SPM, chloride, carbon monoxide and wind speed relative humidity, temperature and ...
Variation of plasma parameters in a modified mode of plasma ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Abstract. A modified mode of plasma production in a double plasma device is presented and plasma parameters are controlled in this configuration. Here plasma is produced by applying a discharge voltage between the hot filaments in the source (cathode) and the target magnetic cage (anode) of the device.
Seasonal variation in physico-chemical parameters of Tekeze ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Tekeze reservoir is situated in the northern part of Ethiopia. Physico-chemical parameters of reservoir water such as temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO), pH, transparency, electric conductivity, total dissolved solids (TDS), alkalinity, total hardness, phosphate and sulphate levels was carried out from August 2013 to July ...
Parameter identification in the logistic STAR model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ekner, Line Elvstrøm; Nejstgaard, Emil
We propose a new and simple parametrization of the so-called speed of transition parameter of the logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) model. The new parametrization highlights that a consequence of the well-known identification problem of the speed of transition parameter is that th......We propose a new and simple parametrization of the so-called speed of transition parameter of the logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) model. The new parametrization highlights that a consequence of the well-known identification problem of the speed of transition parameter...
Sekiguchi, H.; Yoshimi, M.; Horikawa, H.
2011-12-01
Broadband ground motions are estimated in the Kanto sedimentary basin which holds Tokyo metropolitan area inside for anticipated great interplate earthquakes along surrounding plate boundaries. Possible scenarios of great earthquakes along Sagami trough are modeled combining characteristic properties of the source area and adequate variation in source parameters in order to evaluate possible ground motion variation due to next Kanto earthquake. South to the rupture area of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake along the Japan trench, we consider possible M8 earthquake. The ground motions are computed with a four-step hybrid technique. We first calculate low-frequency ground motions at the engineering basement. We then calculate higher-frequency ground motions at the same position, and combine the lower- and higher-frequency motions using a matched filter. We finally calculate ground motions at the surface by computing the response of the alluvium-diluvium layers to the combined motions at the engineering basement.
Variation of equation of state parameters in the Mg2(Si 1-xSnx) alloys
Pulikkotil, Jiji Thomas Joseph
2010-08-03
Thermoelectric performance peaks up for intermediate Mg2(Si 1-x:Snx) alloys, but not for isomorphic and isoelectronic Mg2(Si1-xGex) alloys. A comparative study of the equation of state parameters is performed using density functional theory, Green\\'s function technique, and the coherent potential approximation. Anomalous variation of the bulk modulus is found in Mg2(Si1-xSn x) but not in the Mg2(Si1-xGex) analogs. Assuming a Debye model, linear variations of the unit cell volume and pressure derivative of the bulk modulus suggest that lattice effects are important for the thermoelectric response. From the electronic structure perspective, Mg2(Si1-xSnx) is distinguished by a strong renormalization of the anion-anion hybridization. © 2010 IOP Publishing Ltd.
Parameter Estimation of Partial Differential Equation Models
Xun, Xiaolei
2013-09-01
Partial differential equation (PDE) models are commonly used to model complex dynamic systems in applied sciences such as biology and finance. The forms of these PDE models are usually proposed by experts based on their prior knowledge and understanding of the dynamic system. Parameters in PDE models often have interesting scientific interpretations, but their values are often unknown and need to be estimated from the measurements of the dynamic system in the presence of measurement errors. Most PDEs used in practice have no analytic solutions, and can only be solved with numerical methods. Currently, methods for estimating PDE parameters require repeatedly solving PDEs numerically under thousands of candidate parameter values, and thus the computational load is high. In this article, we propose two methods to estimate parameters in PDE models: a parameter cascading method and a Bayesian approach. In both methods, the underlying dynamic process modeled with the PDE model is represented via basis function expansion. For the parameter cascading method, we develop two nested levels of optimization to estimate the PDE parameters. For the Bayesian method, we develop a joint model for data and the PDE and develop a novel hierarchical model allowing us to employ Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to make posterior inference. Simulation studies show that the Bayesian method and parameter cascading method are comparable, and both outperform other available methods in terms of estimation accuracy. The two methods are demonstrated by estimating parameters in a PDE model from long-range infrared light detection and ranging data. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. © 2013 American Statistical Association.
Application of lumped-parameter models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, M.
2006-12-15
This technical report concerns the lumped-parameter models for a suction caisson with a ratio between skirt length and foundation diameter equal to 1/2, embedded into an viscoelastic soil. The models are presented for three different values of the shear modulus of the subsoil. Subsequently, the assembly of the dynamic stiffness matrix for the foundation is considered, and the solution for obtaining the steady state response, when using lumped-parameter models is given. (au)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Choi, Seung-Bok; Seong, Min-Sang; Ha, Sung-Hoon
2009-01-01
This paper presents vibration control responses of a controllable magnetorheological (MR) suspension system considering the two most important characteristics of the system; the field-dependent hysteretic behavior of the MR damper and the parameter variation of the suspension. In order to achieve this goal, a cylindrical MR damper which is applicable to a middle-sized passenger car is designed and manufactured. After verifying the damping force controllability, the field-dependent hysteretic behavior of the MR damper is identified using the Preisach hysteresis model. The full-vehicle suspension model is then derived by considering vertical, pitch and roll motions. An H ∞ controller is designed by treating the sprung mass of the vehicle as a parameter variation and integrating it with the hysteretic compensator which produces additional control input. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed control system, the hardware-in-the-loop simulation (HILS) methodology is adopted by integrating the suspension model with the proposed MR damper. Vibration control responses of the vehicle suspension system such as vertical acceleration are evaluated under both bump and random road conditions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sennels, Henriette P; Jørgensen, Henrik L; Hansen, Anne-Louise S
2011-01-01
To evaluate the influence of time of day on the circulating concentrations of 21 hematology parameters.......To evaluate the influence of time of day on the circulating concentrations of 21 hematology parameters....
Variation of nonlinearity parameter at low fundamental amplitudes
Barnard, Daniel J.
1999-04-01
Recent harmonic generation measurements of the nonlinearity parameter β in polycrystalline Cu-Al alloys have shown a transition to lower values at low fundamental amplitude levels. Values for β at high (>10 Å) fundamental levels are in the range predicted by single-crystal second- and third-order elastic constants while lower fundamental levels (alloy by others. The source of the effect is unclear but initial results may require a reexamination of current methods for measurement of third-order elastic constants.
Analysis of spin and gauge models with variational methods
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dagotto, E.; Masperi, L.; Moreo, A.; Della Selva, A.; Fiore, R.
1985-01-01
Since independent-site (link) or independent-link (plaquette) variational states enhance the order or the disorder, respectively, in the treatment of spin (gauge) models, we prove that mixed states are able to improve the critical coupling while giving the qualitatively correct behavior of the relevant parameters
diurnal variation in blood parameters in the chicken in the hot
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Dr Olaleye
Twelve adult male chicken of the Nigerian local strain were bled every 3 Hours for 24 hours. Haematological and serum biochemical parameters were measured in the samples collected. Variations in the levels of these parameters throughout the 24 hours were determined. Thirteen out of the parameters measured showed.
CHAMP: Changepoint Detection Using Approximate Model Parameters
2014-06-01
form (with independent emissions or otherwise), in which parameter estimates are available via means such as maximum likelihood fit, MCMC , or sample ...counterparts, including the ability to generate a full posterior distribution over changepoint locations and offering a natural way to incorporate prior... sample consensus method. Our modifications also remove a significant restriction on model definition when detecting parameter changes within a single
Radiation-induced variation of carbositall crystal lattice parameters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pekal'n, T.K.; Virgil'ev, Yu.S.; Volkov, G.M.; Kyrolenkin, E.I.; Kalugin, V.I.
1980-01-01
Studied is radiation change of the sample crystalline structure of industrial mark of CSB-15 carbositall containing boron and prepared at 1500 deg C, as well as carbositall samples Cs-18 without boron synthesized at 1800 deg C. The samples, treated at different temperatures, were irradiated at approximately 300 deg C with 3.7x10 20 neutron/cm 2 (neutron energy >0.18 MeV). To evaluate the degree of radiation damage of the crystalline structure the irradiated samples were then subjected to thermal annealing up to the temperature, at which the sample had been preliminarily thermal treated. The changes of interplane distance, lattice parameter in the basal plane, as well as width of diffraction lines (002) and carbostialls CSB-15 and CS-18, taking place during irradiation, do not disappear during annealing right up to thermal treatment temperature, preceding irradiation. The irradiated carbositall samples, containing boron, are worse graphitized, than non-irradiated ones
Exploiting intrinsic fluctuations to identify model parameters.
Zimmer, Christoph; Sahle, Sven; Pahle, Jürgen
2015-04-01
Parameterisation of kinetic models plays a central role in computational systems biology. Besides the lack of experimental data of high enough quality, some of the biggest challenges here are identification issues. Model parameters can be structurally non-identifiable because of functional relationships. Noise in measured data is usually considered to be a nuisance for parameter estimation. However, it turns out that intrinsic fluctuations in particle numbers can make parameters identifiable that were previously non-identifiable. The authors present a method to identify model parameters that are structurally non-identifiable in a deterministic framework. The method takes time course recordings of biochemical systems in steady state or transient state as input. Often a functional relationship between parameters presents itself by a one-dimensional manifold in parameter space containing parameter sets of optimal goodness. Although the system's behaviour cannot be distinguished on this manifold in a deterministic framework it might be distinguishable in a stochastic modelling framework. Their method exploits this by using an objective function that includes a measure for fluctuations in particle numbers. They show on three example models, immigration-death, gene expression and Epo-EpoReceptor interaction, that this resolves the non-identifiability even in the case of measurement noise with known amplitude. The method is applied to partially observed recordings of biochemical systems with measurement noise. It is simple to implement and it is usually very fast to compute. This optimisation can be realised in a classical or Bayesian fashion.
Setting Parameters for Biological Models With ANIMO
Schivo, Stefano; Scholma, Jetse; Karperien, Hermanus Bernardus Johannes; Post, Janine Nicole; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Langerak, Romanus; André, Étienne; Frehse, Goran
2014-01-01
ANIMO (Analysis of Networks with Interactive MOdeling) is a software for modeling biological networks, such as e.g. signaling, metabolic or gene networks. An ANIMO model is essentially the sum of a network topology and a number of interaction parameters. The topology describes the interactions
Modeling Per Capita State Health Expenditure Variat...
U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Modeling Per Capita State Health Expenditure Variation State-Level Characteristics Matter, published in Volume 3, Issue 4, of the Medicare and Medicaid Research...
Parameters and error of a theoretical model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Moeller, P.; Nix, J.R.; Swiatecki, W.
1986-09-01
We propose a definition for the error of a theoretical model of the type whose parameters are determined from adjustment to experimental data. By applying a standard statistical method, the maximum-likelihoodlmethod, we derive expressions for both the parameters of the theoretical model and its error. We investigate the derived equations by solving them for simulated experimental and theoretical quantities generated by use of random number generators. 2 refs., 4 tabs
A variational void coalescence model for ductile metals
Siddiq, Amir
2011-08-17
We present a variational void coalescence model that includes all the essential ingredients of failure in ductile porous metals. The model is an extension of the variational void growth model by Weinberg et al. (Comput Mech 37:142-152, 2006). The extended model contains all the deformation phases in ductile porous materials, i.e. elastic deformation, plastic deformation including deviatoric and volumetric (void growth) plasticity followed by damage initiation and evolution due to void coalescence. Parametric studies have been performed to assess the model\\'s dependence on the different input parameters. The model is then validated against uniaxial loading experiments for different materials. We finally show the model\\'s ability to predict the damage mechanisms and fracture surface profile of a notched round bar under tension as observed in experiments. © Springer-Verlag 2011.
Application of lumped-parameter models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, Morten
This technical report concerns the lumped-parameter models for a suction caisson with a ratio between skirt length and foundation diameter equal to 1/2, embedded into an viscoelastic soil. The models are presented for three different values of the shear modulus of the subsoil (section 1.1). Subse......This technical report concerns the lumped-parameter models for a suction caisson with a ratio between skirt length and foundation diameter equal to 1/2, embedded into an viscoelastic soil. The models are presented for three different values of the shear modulus of the subsoil (section 1...
Setting Parameters for Biological Models With ANIMO
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Stefano Schivo
2014-03-01
Full Text Available ANIMO (Analysis of Networks with Interactive MOdeling is a software for modeling biological networks, such as e.g. signaling, metabolic or gene networks. An ANIMO model is essentially the sum of a network topology and a number of interaction parameters. The topology describes the interactions between biological entities in form of a graph, while the parameters determine the speed of occurrence of such interactions. When a mismatch is observed between the behavior of an ANIMO model and experimental data, we want to update the model so that it explains the new data. In general, the topology of a model can be expanded with new (known or hypothetical nodes, and enables it to match experimental data. However, the unrestrained addition of new parts to a model causes two problems: models can become too complex too fast, to the point of being intractable, and too many parts marked as "hypothetical" or "not known" make a model unrealistic. Even if changing the topology is normally the easier task, these problems push us to try a better parameter fit as a first step, and resort to modifying the model topology only as a last resource. In this paper we show the support added in ANIMO to ease the task of expanding the knowledge on biological networks, concentrating in particular on the parameter settings.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kueppers, Christian; Ustohalova, Veronika
2013-01-01
The risk considerations for a long-term open-state of the radioactive waste storage facility Schacht Asse II include the following issues: description of radio-ecological models for the radionuclide transport in the covering rock formations and determination of the radiation exposure, parameters of the radio-ecological and their variability, Monte-Carlo method application. The results of the modeling calculations include the group short-living radionuclides, long-living radionuclides, radionuclides in the frame of decay chains and sensitivity analyses with respect to the correlation of input data and results.
Parameter Estimation for Thurstone Choice Models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Vojnovic, Milan [London School of Economics (United Kingdom); Yun, Seyoung [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2017-04-24
We consider the estimation accuracy of individual strength parameters of a Thurstone choice model when each input observation consists of a choice of one item from a set of two or more items (so called top-1 lists). This model accommodates the well-known choice models such as the Luce choice model for comparison sets of two or more items and the Bradley-Terry model for pair comparisons. We provide a tight characterization of the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator. We also provide similar characterizations for parameter estimators defined by a rank-breaking method, which amounts to deducing one or more pair comparisons from a comparison of two or more items, assuming independence of these pair comparisons, and maximizing a likelihood function derived under these assumptions. We also consider a related binary classification problem where each individual parameter takes value from a set of two possible values and the goal is to correctly classify all items within a prescribed classification error. The results of this paper shed light on how the parameter estimation accuracy depends on given Thurstone choice model and the structure of comparison sets. In particular, we found that for unbiased input comparison sets of a given cardinality, when in expectation each comparison set of given cardinality occurs the same number of times, for a broad class of Thurstone choice models, the mean squared error decreases with the cardinality of comparison sets, but only marginally according to a diminishing returns relation. On the other hand, we found that there exist Thurstone choice models for which the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator can decrease much faster with the cardinality of comparison sets. We report empirical evaluation of some claims and key parameters revealed by theory using both synthetic and real-world input data from some popular sport competitions and online labor platforms.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Peiguang Wang
2014-01-01
Full Text Available This paper establishes variation of parameters formula for impulsive differential equations with initial time difference. As an application, one of the results is used to investigate stability properties of solutions.
Mean photon number dependent variational method to the Rabi model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Liu, Maoxin; Ying, Zu-Jian; Luo, Hong-Gang; An, Jun-Hong
2015-01-01
We present a mean photon number dependent variational method, which works well in the whole coupling regime if the photon energy is dominant over the spin-flipping, to evaluate the properties of the Rabi model for both the ground state and excited states. For the ground state, it is shown that the previous approximate methods, the generalized rotating-wave approximation (only working well in the strong coupling limit) and the generalized variational method (only working well in the weak coupling limit), can be recovered in the corresponding coupling limits. The key point of our method is to tailor the merits of these two existing methods by introducing a mean photon number dependent variational parameter. For the excited states, our method yields considerable improvements over the generalized rotating-wave approximation. The variational method proposed could be readily applied to more complex models, for which it is difficult to formulate an analytic formula. (paper)
A lumped parameter, low dimension model of heat exchanger
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kanoh, Hideaki; Furushoo, Junji; Masubuchi, Masami
1980-01-01
This paper reports on the results of investigation of the distributed parameter model, the difference model, and the model of the method of weighted residuals for heat exchangers. By the method of weighted residuals (MWR), the opposite flow heat exchanger system is approximated by low dimension, lumped parameter model. By assuming constant specific heat, constant density, the same form of tube cross-section, the same form of the surface of heat exchange, uniform flow velocity, the linear relation of heat transfer to flow velocity, liquid heat carrier, and the thermal insulation of liquid from outside, fundamental equations are obtained. The experimental apparatus was made of acrylic resin. The response of the temperature at the exit of first liquid to the variation of the flow rate of second liquid was measured and compared with the models. The MWR model shows good approximation for the low frequency region, and as the number of division increases, good approximation spreads to higher frequency region. (Kato, T.)
Modelling and parameter estimation of dynamic systems
Raol, JR; Singh, J
2004-01-01
Parameter estimation is the process of using observations from a system to develop mathematical models that adequately represent the system dynamics. The assumed model consists of a finite set of parameters, the values of which are calculated using estimation techniques. Most of the techniques that exist are based on least-square minimization of error between the model response and actual system response. However, with the proliferation of high speed digital computers, elegant and innovative techniques like filter error method, H-infinity and Artificial Neural Networks are finding more and mor
Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Miller, C W [ed.
1984-01-01
This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base. (ACR)
Consistent Stochastic Modelling of Meteocean Design Parameters
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Sterndorff, M. J.
2000-01-01
Consistent stochastic models of metocean design parameters and their directional dependencies are essential for reliability assessment of offshore structures. In this paper a stochastic model for the annual maximum values of the significant wave height, and the associated wind velocity, current...
Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Miller, C.W.
1984-01-01
This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base
Parameters in dynamic models of complex traits are containers of missing heritability.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yunpeng Wang
Full Text Available Polymorphisms identified in genome-wide association studies of human traits rarely explain more than a small proportion of the heritable variation, and improving this situation within the current paradigm appears daunting. Given a well-validated dynamic model of a complex physiological trait, a substantial part of the underlying genetic variation must manifest as variation in model parameters. These parameters are themselves phenotypic traits. By linking whole-cell phenotypic variation to genetic variation in a computational model of a single heart cell, incorporating genotype-to-parameter maps, we show that genome-wide association studies on parameters reveal much more genetic variation than when using higher-level cellular phenotypes. The results suggest that letting such studies be guided by computational physiology may facilitate a causal understanding of the genotype-to-phenotype map of complex traits, with strong implications for the development of phenomics technology.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bojechko, C.; Ford, E. C.
2015-01-01
Purpose: To quantify the ability of electronic portal imaging device (EPID) dosimetry used during treatment (in vivo) in detecting variations that can occur in the course of patient treatment. Methods: Images of transmitted radiation from in vivo EPID measurements were converted to a 2D planar dose at isocenter and compared to the treatment planning dose using a prototype software system. Using the treatment planning system (TPS), four different types of variability were modeled: overall dose scaling, shifting the positions of the multileaf collimator (MLC) leaves, shifting of the patient position, and changes in the patient body contour. The gamma pass rate was calculated for the modified and unmodified plans and used to construct a receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve to assess the detectability of the different parameter variations. The detectability is given by the area under the ROC curve (AUC). The TPS was also used to calculate the impact of the variations on the target dose–volume histogram. Results: Nine intensity modulation radiation therapy plans were measured for four different anatomical sites consisting of 70 separate fields. Results show that in vivo EPID dosimetry was most sensitive to variations in the machine output, AUC = 0.70 − 0.94, changes in patient body habitus, AUC = 0.67 − 0.88, and systematic shifts in the MLC bank positions, AUC = 0.59 − 0.82. These deviations are expected to have a relatively small clinical impact [planning target volume (PTV) D 99 change <7%]. Larger variations have even higher detectability. Displacements in the patient’s position and random variations in MLC leaf positions were not readily detectable, AUC < 0.64. The D 99 of the PTV changed by up to 57% for the patient position shifts considered here. Conclusions: In vivo EPID dosimetry is able to detect relatively small variations in overall dose, systematic shifts of the MLC’s, and changes in the patient habitus. Shifts in the patient
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bojechko, C.; Ford, E. C., E-mail: eford@uw.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Washington, 1959 NE Pacific Street, Seattle, Washington 98195 (United States)
2015-12-15
Purpose: To quantify the ability of electronic portal imaging device (EPID) dosimetry used during treatment (in vivo) in detecting variations that can occur in the course of patient treatment. Methods: Images of transmitted radiation from in vivo EPID measurements were converted to a 2D planar dose at isocenter and compared to the treatment planning dose using a prototype software system. Using the treatment planning system (TPS), four different types of variability were modeled: overall dose scaling, shifting the positions of the multileaf collimator (MLC) leaves, shifting of the patient position, and changes in the patient body contour. The gamma pass rate was calculated for the modified and unmodified plans and used to construct a receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve to assess the detectability of the different parameter variations. The detectability is given by the area under the ROC curve (AUC). The TPS was also used to calculate the impact of the variations on the target dose–volume histogram. Results: Nine intensity modulation radiation therapy plans were measured for four different anatomical sites consisting of 70 separate fields. Results show that in vivo EPID dosimetry was most sensitive to variations in the machine output, AUC = 0.70 − 0.94, changes in patient body habitus, AUC = 0.67 − 0.88, and systematic shifts in the MLC bank positions, AUC = 0.59 − 0.82. These deviations are expected to have a relatively small clinical impact [planning target volume (PTV) D{sub 99} change <7%]. Larger variations have even higher detectability. Displacements in the patient’s position and random variations in MLC leaf positions were not readily detectable, AUC < 0.64. The D{sub 99} of the PTV changed by up to 57% for the patient position shifts considered here. Conclusions: In vivo EPID dosimetry is able to detect relatively small variations in overall dose, systematic shifts of the MLC’s, and changes in the patient habitus. Shifts in the
Parameter estimation and model selection in computational biology.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gabriele Lillacci
2010-03-01
Full Text Available A central challenge in computational modeling of biological systems is the determination of the model parameters. Typically, only a fraction of the parameters (such as kinetic rate constants are experimentally measured, while the rest are often fitted. The fitting process is usually based on experimental time course measurements of observables, which are used to assign parameter values that minimize some measure of the error between these measurements and the corresponding model prediction. The measurements, which can come from immunoblotting assays, fluorescent markers, etc., tend to be very noisy and taken at a limited number of time points. In this work we present a new approach to the problem of parameter selection of biological models. We show how one can use a dynamic recursive estimator, known as extended Kalman filter, to arrive at estimates of the model parameters. The proposed method follows. First, we use a variation of the Kalman filter that is particularly well suited to biological applications to obtain a first guess for the unknown parameters. Secondly, we employ an a posteriori identifiability test to check the reliability of the estimates. Finally, we solve an optimization problem to refine the first guess in case it should not be accurate enough. The final estimates are guaranteed to be statistically consistent with the measurements. Furthermore, we show how the same tools can be used to discriminate among alternate models of the same biological process. We demonstrate these ideas by applying our methods to two examples, namely a model of the heat shock response in E. coli, and a model of a synthetic gene regulation system. The methods presented are quite general and may be applied to a wide class of biological systems where noisy measurements are used for parameter estimation or model selection.
John E. Major; Kurt H. Johnsen; Debby C. Barsi; Moira Campbell
2013-01-01
To examine soil moisture stress, light, and genetic effects on individual needle parameters and investigate total needle contribution to productivity, individual and total needle parameter variation were quantified in 32-year-old black spruce from five crown positions from four full-sib families studied previously for drought tolerance and differential productivity on...
The Impact of Gate-Driver Parameters Variation and Device Degradation in the PV-Inverter Lifetime
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sintamarean, Nicolae Cristian; Wang, Huai; Blaabjerg, Frede
2014-01-01
-Thermal model and the lifetime model of the power semiconductor devices. A simulation model able to consider a one year real field operation conditions (solar irradiance and ambient temperature) is developed. Thus, one year estimation of the converter devices thermal loading distribution is achieved...... and is further used as an input to a lifetime model. The proposed reliability oriented design tool is used to study the impact of MP-variation, Gate-Driver (GD) parameters variation and device degradation in the PVinverter lifetime. The obtained results indicate that in order to improve the accuracy...... of the lifetime estimation it is crucial to consider also the device degradation feedback. Moreover the MP of the field where the PV-inverter is operating and the GD parameters selection has an important impact in the converter reliability and it should be considered from the design stage to better optimize...
Kosugi, Yoshiko; Takanashi, Satoru; Yokoyama, Naoto; Philip, Elizabeth; Kamakura, Mai
2012-11-01
Vertical variation in leaf gas exchange characteristics of trees grown in a lowland dipterocarp forest in Peninsular Malaysia was investigated. Maximum net photosynthetic rate, stomatal conductance, and electron transport rate of leaves at the upper canopy, lower canopy, and forest floor were studied in situ with saturated condition photosynthetic photon flux density. The dark respiration rate of leaves at the various heights was also studied. Relationships among gas exchange characteristics, and also with nitrogen content per unit leaf area and leaf dry matter per area were clearly detected, forming general equations representing the vertical profile of several important parameters related to gas exchange. Numerical analysis revealed that the vertical distribution of gas exchange parameters was well determined showing both larger carbon gain for the whole canopy and at the same time positive carbon gain for the leaves of the lowest layer. For correct estimation of gas exchange at both leaf and canopy scales using multi-layer models, it is essential to consider the vertical distribution of gas exchange parameters with proper scaling coefficients.
Delay Variation Model with Two Service Queues
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Filip Rezac
2010-01-01
Full Text Available Delay in VoIP technology is very unpleasant issue and therefore a voice packets prioritization must be ensured. To maintain the high call quality a maximum information delivery time from the sender to the recipient is set to 150 ms. This paper focuses on the design of a mathematical model of end-to-end delay of a VoIP connection, in particular on a delay variation. It describes all partial delay components and mechanisms, their generation, facilities and mathematical formulations. A new approach to the delay variation model is presented and its validation has been done by experimention.
Intelligent Controller Design for Quad-Rotor Stabilization in Presence of Parameter Variations
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Oualid Doukhi
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The paper presents the mathematical model of a quadrotor unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV and the design of robust Self-Tuning PID controller based on fuzzy logic, which offers several advantages over certain types of conventional control methods, specifically in dealing with highly nonlinear systems and parameter uncertainty. The proposed controller is applied to the inner and outer loop for heading and position trajectory tracking control to handle the external disturbances caused by the variation in the payload weight during the flight period. The results of the numerical simulation using gazebo physics engine simulator and real-time experiment using AR drone 2.0 test bed demonstrate the effectiveness of this intelligent control strategy which can improve the robustness of the whole system and achieve accurate trajectory tracking control, comparing it with the conventional proportional integral derivative (PID.
Advances in Modelling, System Identification and Parameter ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
models determined from flight test data by using parameter estimation methods find extensive use in design/modification of flight control systems, high fidelity flight simulators and evaluation of handling qualitites of aircraft and rotorcraft. R K Mehra et al present new algorithms and results for flutter tests and adaptive notching ...
A lumped parameter model of plasma focus
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gonzalez, Jose H.; Florido, Pablo C.; Bruzzone, H.; Clausse, Alejandro
1999-01-01
A lumped parameter model to estimate neutron emission of a plasma focus (PF) device is developed. The dynamic of the current sheet is calculated using a snowplow model, and the neutron production with the thermal fusion cross section for a deuterium filling gas. The results were contrasted as a function of the filling pressure with experimental measurements of a 3.68 KJ Mather-type PF. (author)
One parameter model potential for noble metals
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Idrees, M.; Khwaja, F.A.; Razmi, M.S.K.
1981-08-01
A phenomenological one parameter model potential which includes s-d hybridization and core-core exchange contributions is proposed for noble metals. A number of interesting properties like liquid metal resistivities, band gaps, thermoelectric powers and ion-ion interaction potentials are calculated for Cu, Ag and Au. The results obtained are in better agreement with experiment than the ones predicted by the other model potentials in the literature. (author)
Ultrasonic-assisted manufacturing processes: Variational model and numerical simulations
Siddiq, Amir
2012-04-01
We present a computational study of ultrasonic assisted manufacturing processes including sheet metal forming, upsetting, and wire drawing. A fully variational porous plasticity model is modified to include ultrasonic softening effects and then utilized to account for instantaneous softening when ultrasonic energy is applied during deformation. Material model parameters are identified via inverse modeling, i.e. by using experimental data. The versatility and predictive ability of the model are demonstrated and the effect of ultrasonic intensity on the manufacturing process at hand is investigated and compared qualitatively with experimental results reported in the literature. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sennels, Henriette P; Jørgensen, Henrik L; Gøtze, Jens Peter
2012-01-01
conditions from 24 healthy young men every third hour through 24 hours, nine time points in total. At each time point, the parameters' concentrations were measured. The data were analyzed by rhythmometric statistical methods and in addition the biological variations were calculated. Results. Significant...... oscillation of melatonin with an amplitude (amp) of 19.84 pg/ml and a peak at 03:34 h confirmed the normal 24-hour rhythms of the participants. Potassium (p...
Modeling Soil Temperature Variations | Ogunlela | Journal of ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
This paper reports on modeling soil temperature variations. Transient heat flow principles were used in the study, with the assumptions that the heat flow was one-dimensional, the soil was homogenous and that the thermal diffusivity was constant. Average conditions are also assumed. The annual and diurnal (daily) soil ...
Models of Solar Irradiance Variations: Current Status
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
2016-01-27
Jan 27, 2016 ... Models of Solar Irradiance Variations: Current Status. Natalie A. ... Regular monitoring of solar irradiance has been carried out since 1978 to show that solar total and spectral irradiance varies at different time scales. Whereas ... Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research, Katlenburg-Lindau, Germany.
Modeling the climatic response to orbital variations.
Imbrie, J; Imbrie, J Z
1980-02-29
According to the astronomical theory of climate, variations in the earth's orbit are the fundamental cause of the succession of Pleistocene ice ages. This article summarizes how the theory has evolved since the pioneer studies of James Croll and Milutin Milankovitch, reviews recent evidence that supports the theory, and argues that a major opportunity is at hand to investigate the physical mechanisms by which the climate system responds to orbital forcing. After a survey of the kinds of models that have been applied to this problem, a strategy is suggested for building simple, physically motivated models, and a time-dependent model is developed that simulates the history of planetary glaciation for the past 500,000 years. Ignoring anthropogenic and other possible sources of variation acting at frequencies higher than one cycle per 19,000 years, this model predicts that the long-term cooling trend which began some 6000 years ago will continue for the next 23,000 years.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Borchevkina Olga
2016-01-01
Full Text Available The paper presents observations of atmospheric and ionospheric parameters during strong meteorological disturbances (storms in the Kaliningrad region. The analysis of ionospheric observations has shown that during meteorological storms the amplitude of diurnal variations in TEC decreases to 50 %; and in foF2, to 15 % as compared to quiet days. The revealed changes in ionospheric conditions during meteorological storms are regularly registered and represent a characteristic feature of the meteorological effect on the ionosphere. Modeling studies of the vertical propagation of AGW from the Earth’s surface showed that such waves quickly (within ~15 min reach altitudes of the upper atmosphere (~300 km. The refraction and dissipation of waves in the upper atmosphere produces perturbations of the background state of the atmosphere and gives rise to the waveguide propagation of infrasonic wave components. The observed manifestations of TEC disturbances caused by AGW propagating from the lower atmosphere can be explained by the diurnal variation of the altitude of the ionosphere and the waveguide propagation of infrasonic waves.
Fadly, Romi; Dewi, Citra
2014-01-01
This research aims to compare the 14 transformation parameters between ITRF from computation result using the Helmert 14-parameter models with IERS standard parameters. The transforma- tion parameters are calculated from the coordinates and velocities of ITRF05 to ITRF00 epoch 2000.00, and from ITRF08 to ITRF05 epoch 2005.00 for respectively transformation models. The transformation parameters are compared to the IERS standard parameters, then tested the signifi- cance of the d...
Storm surge model based on variational data assimilation method
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shi-li Huang
2010-06-01
Full Text Available By combining computation and observation information, the variational data assimilation method has the ability to eliminate errors caused by the uncertainty of parameters in practical forecasting. It was applied to a storm surge model based on unstructured grids with high spatial resolution meant for improving the forecasting accuracy of the storm surge. By controlling the wind stress drag coefficient, the variation-based model was developed and validated through data assimilation tests in an actual storm surge induced by a typhoon. In the data assimilation tests, the model accurately identified the wind stress drag coefficient and obtained results close to the true state. Then, the actual storm surge induced by Typhoon 0515 was forecast by the developed model, and the results demonstrate its efficiency in practical application.
Geomagnetic Core Field Secular Variation Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gillet, N.; Lesur, V.; Olsen, Nils
2010-01-01
We analyse models describing time changes of the Earth’s core magnetic field (secular variation) covering the historical period (several centuries) and the more recent satellite era (previous decade), and we illustrate how both the information contained in the data and the a priori information...... (regularisation) affect the result of the ill-posed geomagnetic inverse problem. We show how data quality, frequency and selection procedures govern part of the temporal changes in the secular variation norms and spectra, which are sometimes difficult to dissociate from true changes of the core state. We...... highlight the difficulty of resolving the time variability of the high degree secular variation coefficients (i.e. the secular acceleration), arising for instance from the challenge to properly separate sources of internal and of external origin. In addition, the regularisation process may also result...
Constant-parameter capture-recapture models
Brownie, C.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.
1986-01-01
Jolly (1982, Biometrics 38, 301-321) presented modifications of the Jolly-Seber model for capture-recapture data, which assume constant survival and/or capture rates. Where appropriate, because of the reduced number of parameters, these models lead to more efficient estimators than the Jolly-Seber model. The tests to compare models given by Jolly do not make complete use of the data, and we present here the appropriate modifications, and also indicate how to carry out goodness-of-fit tests which utilize individual capture history information. We also describe analogous models for the case where young and adult animals are tagged. The availability of computer programs to perform the analysis is noted, and examples are given using output from these programs.
Aqueous Electrolytes: Model Parameters and Process Simulation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Thomsen, Kaj
This thesis deals with aqueous electrolyte mixtures. The Extended UNIQUAC model is being used to describe the excess Gibbs energy of such solutions. Extended UNIQUAC parameters for the twelve ions Na+, K+, NH4+, H+, Cl-, NO3-, SO42-, HSO4-, OH-, CO32-, HCO3-, and S2O82- are estimated. A computer ...... program including a steady state process simulator for the design, simulation, and optimization of fractional crystallization processes is presented.......This thesis deals with aqueous electrolyte mixtures. The Extended UNIQUAC model is being used to describe the excess Gibbs energy of such solutions. Extended UNIQUAC parameters for the twelve ions Na+, K+, NH4+, H+, Cl-, NO3-, SO42-, HSO4-, OH-, CO32-, HCO3-, and S2O82- are estimated. A computer...
Modelling tourists arrival using time varying parameter
Suciptawati, P.; Sukarsa, K. G.; Kencana, Eka N.
2017-06-01
The importance of tourism and its related sectors to support economic development and poverty reduction in many countries increase researchers’ attentions to study and model tourists’ arrival. This work is aimed to demonstrate time varying parameter (TVP) technique to model the arrival of Korean’s tourists to Bali. The number of Korean tourists whom visiting Bali for period January 2010 to December 2015 were used to model the number of Korean’s tourists to Bali (KOR) as dependent variable. The predictors are the exchange rate of Won to IDR (WON), the inflation rate in Korea (INFKR), and the inflation rate in Indonesia (INFID). Observing tourists visit to Bali tend to fluctuate by their nationality, then the model was built by applying TVP and its parameters were approximated using Kalman Filter algorithm. The results showed all of predictor variables (WON, INFKR, INFID) significantly affect KOR. For in-sample and out-of-sample forecast with ARIMA’s forecasted values for the predictors, TVP model gave mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) as much as 11.24 percent and 12.86 percent, respectively.
Variations of little Higgs models and their electroweak constraints
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Csaki, Csaba; Hubisz, Jay; Meade, Patrick; Kribs, Graham D.; Terning, John
2003-01-01
We calculate the tree-level electroweak precision constraints on a wide class of little Higgs models including variations of the littlest Higgs SU(5)/SO(5), SU(6)/Sp(6), and SU(4) 4 /SU(3) 4 models. By performing a global fit to the precision data we find that for generic regions of the parameter space the bound on the symmetry breaking scale f is several TeV, where we have kept the normalization of f constant in the different models. For example, the 'minimal' implementation of SU(6)/Sp(6) is bounded by f>3.0 TeV throughout most of the parameter space, and SU(4) 4 /SU(3) 4 is bounded by f 2 ≡f 1 2 +f 2 2 >(4.2 TeV) 2 . In certain models, such as SU(4) 4 /SU(3) 4 , a large f does not directly imply a large amount of fine-tuning since the heavy-fermion masses that contribute to the Higgs boson mass can be lowered below f for a carefully chosen set of parameters. We also find that for certain models (or variations) there exist regions of parameter space in which the bound on f can be lowered into the range 1-2 TeV. These regions are typically characterized by a small mixing between heavy and standard model gauge bosons and a small (or vanishing) coupling between heavy U(1) gauge bosons and light fermions. Whether such a region of parameter space is natural or not is ultimately contingent on the UV completion
Modeling response variation for radiometric calorimeters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mayer, R.L. II.
1986-01-01
Radiometric calorimeters are widely used in the DOE complex for accountability measurements of plutonium and tritium. Proper characterization of response variation for these instruments is, therefore, vital for accurate assessment of measurement control as well as for propagation of error calculations. This is not difficult for instruments used to measure items within a narrow range of power values; however, when a single instrument is used to measure items over a wide range of power values, improper estimates of uncertainty can result since traditional error models for radiometric calorimeters assume that uncertainty is not a function of sample power. This paper describes methods which can be used to accurately estimate random response variation for calorimeters used to measure items over a wide range of sample powers. The model is applicable to the two most common modes of calorimeter operation: heater replacement and servo control. 5 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yu-Hao Mao
2016-09-01
Full Text Available We quantified the impacts of variations in meteorological parameters and emissions on decadal, interannual, and seasonal variations of atmospheric black carbon (BC in the Tibetan Plateau for 1980–2010 using a global 3-dimensional chemical transport model driven by the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA meteorological fields. From 1980 to 2010, simulated surface BC concentrations and all-sky direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere due to atmospheric BC increased by 0.15 μg m−3 (63% and by 0.23 W m−2 (62%, respectively, averaged over the Tibetan Plateau (75–105°E, 25–40°N. Simulated annual mean surface BC concentrations were in the range of 0.24–0.40 μg m−3 averaged over the plateau for 1980–2010, with the decadal trends of 0.13 μg m−3 per decade in the 1980s and 0.08 in the 2000s. The interannual variations were −5.4% to 7.0% for deviation from the mean, 0.0062 μg m−3 for mean absolute deviation, and 2.5% for absolute percent departure from the mean. Model sensitivity simulations indicated that the decadal trends of surface BC concentrations were mainly driven by changes in emissions, while the interannual variations were dependent on variations of both meteorological parameters and emissions. Meteorological parameters played a crucial role in driving the interannual variations of BC especially in the monsoon season.
Lumped Parameters Model of a Crescent Pump
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Massimo Rundo
2016-10-01
Full Text Available This paper presents the lumped parameters model of an internal gear crescent pump with relief valve, able to estimate the steady-state flow-pressure characteristic and the pressure ripple. The approach is based on the identification of three variable control volumes regardless of the number of gear teeth. The model has been implemented in the commercial environment LMS Amesim with the development of customized components. Specific attention has been paid to the leakage passageways, some of them affected by the deformation of the cover plate under the action of the delivery pressure. The paper reports the finite element method analysis of the cover for the evaluation of the deflection and the validation through a contactless displacement transducer. Another aspect described in this study is represented by the computational fluid dynamics analysis of the relief valve, whose results have been used for tuning the lumped parameters model. Finally, the validation of the entire model of the pump is presented in terms of steady-state flow rate and of pressure oscillations.
Study of variation in human upper body parameters and motion for use in robotics based simulation.
Lura, Derek J; Carey, Stephanie L; Dubey, Rajiv V
2013-01-01
This paper reviews the variations in human upper body motion of subjects completing activities of daily living. This study was completed to serve as a reference to evaluate the quality of simulated of human motion. In this paper we define the variation in motion as the variation in subjects' parameters (link lengths), joint angles, and hand positions, for a given task. All of these variations are related by forward kinematic equations. Motion data from eight healthy right hand dominant adults performing three activities of daily living (brushing hair, drinking from a cup, and opening a door) were collected using an eight camera Vicon motion analysis system. Subject parameters were calculated using relative positions of functional joint center locations between segments. Joint angles were calculated by Euler angle rotations between body segments. Hand position was defined as the origin of the hand frame relative to the pelvis frame. The variance of recorded human motion was analyzed based on the standard deviations of subject parameters, joint angles, and hand positions. Variances in joint angles were found to be similar in magnitude to root mean squared error of kinematics based motion simulation. To evaluate the relative variance, the forward kinematic solutions of the trials were found after removing subject parameter variance and reducing joint angle variance. The variance in the forward kinematic solution was then compared to the recorded hand position variance. Reductions in subject parameter and joint angle variance produced a proportionally much smaller reduction in the calculated hand position variance. Using the average instead of individual subject parameters had only a small impact on hand position variance. Modifying joint angles to reduce variance had a greater impact on the calculated hand position variance than using average subject parameters, but was still a relatively small change. Future work will focus on using these results to create formalized
Schlaffke, Lara; Rehmann, Robert; Froeling, Martijn; Kley, Rudolf; Tegenthoff, Martin; Vorgerd, Matthias; Schmidt-Wilcke, Tobias
2017-01-01
Purpose: To investigate to what extent inter- and intramuscular variations of diffusion parameters of human calf muscles can be explained by age, gender, muscle location, and body mass index (BMI) in a specific age group (20-35 years). Materials and Methods: Whole calf muscles of 18 healthy
Spatial variations of order parameter around Kondo impurity for T<=Tsub(c)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yoksan, S.
1980-04-01
Analytic expressions for the spatial variations of the order parameter around a Kondo impurity are obtained. The oscillatory contribution due to the impurity scattering is calculated using the t matrix of Matsuura which conveniently yields the general results below Tsub(c). Differences between our values and those of Schlottmann are reported. (author)
EFFECT OF PROCESS PARAMETER VARIATION ON ft IN CONVENTIONAL AND JUNCTIONLESS GATE-ALL-AROUND DEVICES
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
B. LAKSHMI
2015-08-01
Full Text Available In this paper we have studied the effect of process variations on unity gain cut- off frequency (ft in conventional and junctionless gate-all-around (GAA transistors using TCAD simulations. Three different geometrical parameters, channel doping, source/drain doping (for conventional GAA, wire doping (for junctionless GAA and gate electrode work function are studied for their sensitivity on ft. For conventional GAA, ft is more sensitive to gate length and source/drain doping and less sensitive to gate oxide thickness, ovality and channel doping and least sensitive to gate work function variations. For junctionless GAA, ft is more sensitive to gate length and gate work function variations and less sensitive to gate oxide thickness, ovality, wire doping. The non-quasi static (NQS delay is extracted for the most sensitive parameters. The trend of NQS delay is just the reverse trend of ft.
Prediction of interest rate using CKLS model with stochastic parameters
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ying, Khor Chia [Faculty of Computing and Informatics, Multimedia University, Jalan Multimedia, 63100 Cyberjaya, Selangor (Malaysia); Hin, Pooi Ah [Sunway University Business School, No. 5, Jalan Universiti, Bandar Sunway, 47500 Subang Jaya, Selangor (Malaysia)
2014-06-19
The Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff and Sanders (CKLS) model is a popular one-factor model for describing the spot interest rates. In this paper, the four parameters in the CKLS model are regarded as stochastic. The parameter vector φ{sup (j)} of four parameters at the (J+n)-th time point is estimated by the j-th window which is defined as the set consisting of the observed interest rates at the j′-th time point where j≤j′≤j+n. To model the variation of φ{sup (j)}, we assume that φ{sup (j)} depends on φ{sup (j−m)}, φ{sup (j−m+1)},…, φ{sup (j−1)} and the interest rate r{sub j+n} at the (j+n)-th time point via a four-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a [4(m+1)+1]-dimensional power-normal distribution. Treating the (j+n)-th time point as the present time point, we find a prediction interval for the future value r{sub j+n+1} of the interest rate at the next time point when the value r{sub j+n} of the interest rate is given. From the above four-dimensional conditional distribution, we also find a prediction interval for the future interest rate r{sub j+n+d} at the next d-th (d≥2) time point. The prediction intervals based on the CKLS model with stochastic parameters are found to have better ability of covering the observed future interest rates when compared with those based on the model with fixed parameters.
Haematology and Serum Biochemistry Parameters and Variations in the Eurasian Beaver (Castor fiber).
Girling, Simon J; Campbell-Palmer, Roisin; Pizzi, Romain; Fraser, Mary A; Cracknell, Jonathan; Arnemo, Jon; Rosell, Frank
2015-01-01
Haematology parameters (N = 24) and serum biochemistry parameters (N = 35) were determined for wild Eurasian beavers (Castor fiber), between 6 months - 12 years old. Of the population tested in this study, N = 18 Eurasian beavers were from Norway and N = 17 originating from Bavaria but now living extensively in a reserve in England. All blood samples were collected from beavers via the ventral tail vein. All beavers were chemically restrained using inhalant isoflurane in 100% oxygen prior to blood sampling. Results were determined for haematological and serum biochemical parameters for the species and were compared between the two different populations with differences in means estimated and significant differences being noted. Standard blood parameters for the Eurasian beaver were determined and their ranges characterised using percentiles. Whilst the majority of blood parameters between the two populations showed no significant variation, haemoglobin, packed cell volume, mean cell haemoglobin and white blood cell counts showed significantly greater values (pbeavers or between sexually immature (beavers in the animals sampled. With Eurasian beaver reintroduction encouraged by legislation throughout Europe, knowledge of baseline blood values for the species and any variations therein is essential when assessing their health and welfare and the success or failure of any reintroduction program. This is the first study to produce base-line blood values and their variations for the Eurasian beaver.
Parameter sensitivity analysis of a lumped-parameter model of a chain of lymphangions in series.
Jamalian, Samira; Bertram, Christopher D; Richardson, William J; Moore, James E
2013-12-01
Any disruption of the lymphatic system due to trauma or injury can lead to edema. There is no effective cure for lymphedema, partly because predictive knowledge of lymphatic system reactions to interventions is lacking. A well-developed model of the system could greatly improve our understanding of its function. Lymphangions, defined as the vessel segment between two valves, are the individual pumping units. Based on our previous lumped-parameter model of a chain of lymphangions, this study aimed to identify the parameters that affect the system output the most using a sensitivity analysis. The system was highly sensitive to minimum valve resistance, such that variations in this parameter caused an order-of-magnitude change in time-average flow rate for certain values of imposed pressure difference. Average flow rate doubled when contraction frequency was increased within its physiological range. Optimum lymphangion length was found to be some 13-14.5 diameters. A peak of time-average flow rate occurred when transmural pressure was such that the pressure-diameter loop for active contractions was centered near maximum passive vessel compliance. Increasing the number of lymphangions in the chain improved the pumping in the presence of larger adverse pressure differences. For a given pressure difference, the optimal number of lymphangions increased with the total vessel length. These results indicate that further experiments to estimate valve resistance more accurately are necessary. The existence of an optimal value of transmural pressure may provide additional guidelines for increasing pumping in areas affected by edema.
Modeling of Parameters of Subcritical Assembly SAD
Petrochenkov, S; Puzynin, I
2005-01-01
The accepted conceptual design of the experimental Subcritical Assembly in Dubna (SAD) is based on the MOX core with a nominal unit capacity of 25 kW (thermal). This corresponds to the multiplication coefficient $k_{\\rm eff} =0.95$ and accelerator beam power 1 kW. A subcritical assembly driven with the existing 660 MeV proton accelerator at the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research has been modelled in order to make choice of the optimal parameters for the future experiments. The Monte Carlo method was used to simulate neutron spectra, energy deposition and doses calculations. Some of the calculation results are presented in the paper.
Parameter estimation in fractional diffusion models
Kubilius, Kęstutis; Ralchenko, Kostiantyn
2017-01-01
This book is devoted to parameter estimation in diffusion models involving fractional Brownian motion and related processes. For many years now, standard Brownian motion has been (and still remains) a popular model of randomness used to investigate processes in the natural sciences, financial markets, and the economy. The substantial limitation in the use of stochastic diffusion models with Brownian motion is due to the fact that the motion has independent increments, and, therefore, the random noise it generates is “white,” i.e., uncorrelated. However, many processes in the natural sciences, computer networks and financial markets have long-term or short-term dependences, i.e., the correlations of random noise in these processes are non-zero, and slowly or rapidly decrease with time. In particular, models of financial markets demonstrate various kinds of memory and usually this memory is modeled by fractional Brownian diffusion. Therefore, the book constructs diffusion models with memory and provides s...
Moose models with vanishing S parameter
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Casalbuoni, R.; De Curtis, S.; Dominici, D.
2004-01-01
In the linear moose framework, which naturally emerges in deconstruction models, we show that there is a unique solution for the vanishing of the S parameter at the lowest order in the weak interactions. We consider an effective gauge theory based on K SU(2) gauge groups, K+1 chiral fields, and electroweak groups SU(2) L and U(1) Y at the ends of the chain of the moose. S vanishes when a link in the moose chain is cut. As a consequence one has to introduce a dynamical nonlocal field connecting the two ends of the moose. Then the model acquires an additional custodial symmetry which protects this result. We examine also the possibility of a strong suppression of S through an exponential behavior of the link couplings as suggested by the Randall Sundrum metric
Investigation of land use effects on Nash model parameters
Niazi, Faegheh; Fakheri Fard, Ahmad; Nourani, Vahid; Goodrich, David; Gupta, Hoshin
2015-04-01
Flood forecasting is of great importance in hydrologic planning, hydraulic structure design, water resources management and sustainable designs like flood control and management. Nash's instantaneous unit hydrograph is frequently used for simulating hydrological response in natural watersheds. Urban hydrology is gaining more attention due to population increases and associated construction escalation. Rapid development of urban areas affects the hydrologic processes of watersheds by decreasing soil permeability, flood base flow, lag time and increase in flood volume, peak runoff rates and flood frequency. In this study the influence of urbanization on the significant parameters of the Nash model have been investigated. These parameters were calculated using three popular methods (i.e. moment, root mean square error and random sampling data generation), in a small watershed consisting of one natural sub-watershed which drains into a residentially developed sub-watershed in the city of Sierra Vista, Arizona. The results indicated that for all three methods, the lag time, which is product of Nash parameters "K" and "n", in the natural sub-watershed is greater than the developed one. This logically implies more storage and/or attenuation in the natural sub-watershed. The median K and n parameters derived from the three methods using calibration events were tested via a set of verification events. The results indicated that all the three method have acceptable accuracy in hydrograph simulation. The CDF curves and histograms of the parameters clearly show the difference of the Nash parameter values between the natural and developed sub-watersheds. Some specific upper and lower percentile values of the median of the generated parameters (i.e. 10, 20 and 30 %) were analyzed to future investigates the derived parameters. The model was sensitive to variations in the value of the uncertain K and n parameter. Changes in n are smaller than K in both sub-watersheds indicating
The parameter space of Cubic Galileon models for cosmic acceleration
Bellini, Emilio
2013-01-01
We use recent measurements of the expansion history of the universe to place constraints on the parameter space of cubic Galileon models. This gives strong constraints on the Lagrangian of these models. Most dynamical terms in the Galileon Lagrangian are constraint to be small and the acceleration is effectively provided by a constant term in the scalar potential, thus reducing, effectively, to a LCDM model for current acceleration. The effective equation of state is indistinguishable from that of a cosmological constant w = -1 and the data constraint it to have no temporal variations of more than at the few % level. The energy density of the Galileon can contribute only to about 10% of the acceleration energy density, being the other 90% a cosmological constant term. This demonstrates how useful direct measurements of the expansion history of the universe are at constraining the dynamical nature of dark energy.
Variational learning for switching state-space models.
Ghahramani, Z; Hinton, G E
2000-04-01
We introduce a new statistical model for time series that iteratively segments data into regimes with approximately linear dynamics and learnsthe parameters of each of these linear regimes. This model combines and generalizes two of the most widely used stochastic time-series models -- hidden Markov models and linear dynamical systems -- and is closely related to models that are widely used in the control and econometrics literatures. It can also be derived by extending the mixture of experts neural network (Jacobs, Jordan, Nowlan, & Hinton, 1991) to its fully dynamical version, in which both expert and gating networks are recurrent. Inferring the posterior probabilities of the hidden states of this model is computationally intractable, and therefore the exact expectation maximization (EM) algorithm cannot be applied. However, we present a variational approximation that maximizes a lower bound on the log-likelihood and makes use of both the forward and backward recursions for hidden Markov models and the Kalman filter recursions for linear dynamical systems. We tested the algorithm on artificial data sets and a natural data set of respiration force from a patient with sleep apnea. The results suggest that variational approximations are a viable method for inference and learning in switching state-space models.
Models for setting ATM parameter values
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Blaabjerg, Søren; Gravey, A.; Romæuf, L.
1996-01-01
presents approximate methods and discusses their applicability. We then discuss the problem of obtaining traffic characteristic values for a connection that has crossed a series of switching nodes. This problem is particularly relevant for the traffic contract components corresponding to ICIs...... (CDV) tolerance(s). The values taken by these traffic parameters characterize the so-called ''Worst Case Traffic'' that is used by CAC procedures for accepting a new connection and allocating resources to it. Conformance to the negotiated traffic characteristics is defined, at the ingress User...... essential to set traffic characteristic values that are relevant to the considered cell stream, and that ensure that the amount of non-conforming traffic is small. Using a queueing model representation for the GCRA formalism, several methods are available for choosing the traffic characteristics. This paper...
Mass balance model parameter transferability on a tropical glacier
Gurgiser, Wolfgang; Mölg, Thomas; Nicholson, Lindsey; Kaser, Georg
2013-04-01
The mass balance and melt water production of glaciers is of particular interest in the Peruvian Andes where glacier melt water has markedly increased water supply during the pronounced dry seasons in recent decades. However, the melt water contribution from glaciers is projected to decrease with appreciable negative impacts on the local society within the coming decades. Understanding mass balance processes on tropical glaciers is a prerequisite for modeling present and future glacier runoff. As a first step towards this aim we applied a process-based surface mass balance model in order to calculate observed ablation at two stakes in the ablation zone of Shallap Glacier (4800 m a.s.l., 9°S) in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Under the tropical climate, the snow line migrates very frequently across most of the ablation zone all year round causing large temporal and spatial variations of glacier surface conditions and related ablation. Consequently, pronounced differences between the two chosen stakes and the two years were observed. Hourly records of temperature, humidity, wind speed, short wave incoming radiation, and precipitation are available from an automatic weather station (AWS) on the moraine near the glacier for the hydrological years 2006/07 and 2007/08 while stake readings are available at intervals of between 14 to 64 days. To optimize model parameters, we used 1000 model simulations in which the most sensitive model parameters were varied randomly within their physically meaningful ranges. The modeled surface height change was evaluated against the two stake locations in the lower ablation zone (SH11, 4760m) and in the upper ablation zone (SH22, 4816m), respectively. The optimal parameter set for each point achieved good model skill but if we transfer the best parameter combination from one stake site to the other stake site model errors increases significantly. The same happens if we optimize the model parameters for each year individually and transfer
Haematology and Serum Biochemistry Parameters and Variations in the Eurasian Beaver (Castor fiber.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Simon J Girling
Full Text Available Haematology parameters (N = 24 and serum biochemistry parameters (N = 35 were determined for wild Eurasian beavers (Castor fiber, between 6 months - 12 years old. Of the population tested in this study, N = 18 Eurasian beavers were from Norway and N = 17 originating from Bavaria but now living extensively in a reserve in England. All blood samples were collected from beavers via the ventral tail vein. All beavers were chemically restrained using inhalant isoflurane in 100% oxygen prior to blood sampling. Results were determined for haematological and serum biochemical parameters for the species and were compared between the two different populations with differences in means estimated and significant differences being noted. Standard blood parameters for the Eurasian beaver were determined and their ranges characterised using percentiles. Whilst the majority of blood parameters between the two populations showed no significant variation, haemoglobin, packed cell volume, mean cell haemoglobin and white blood cell counts showed significantly greater values (p<0.01 in the Bavarian origin population than the Norwegian; neutrophil counts, alpha 2 globulins, cholesterol, sodium: potassium ratios and phosphorus levels showed significantly (p<0.05 greater values in Bavarian versus Norwegian; and potassium, bile acids, gamma globulins, urea, creatinine and total calcium values levels showed significantly (p<0.05 greater values in Norwegian versus Bavarian relict populations. No significant differences were noted between male and female beavers or between sexually immature (<3 years old and sexually mature (≥3 years old beavers in the animals sampled. With Eurasian beaver reintroduction encouraged by legislation throughout Europe, knowledge of baseline blood values for the species and any variations therein is essential when assessing their health and welfare and the success or failure of any reintroduction program. This is the first study to produce
Simple variational ground state and pure-cat-state generation in the quantum Rabi model
Leroux, C.; Govia, L. C. G.; Clerk, A. A.
2017-10-01
We introduce a simple, physically motivated variational ground state for the quantum Rabi model and demonstrate that it provides a high-fidelity approximation of the true ground state in all parameter regimes (including intermediate- and strong-coupling regimes). Our variational state is constructed using Gaussian cavity states and nonorthogonal qubit pointer states and contains only three variational parameters. We use our state to develop a heuristic understanding of how the ground state evolves with increasing coupling and find a parameter regime where the ground state corresponds to the cavity being in a nearly pure Schrödinger cat state.
Dengue human infection model performance parameters.
Endy, Timothy P
2014-06-15
Dengue is a global health problem and of concern to travelers and deploying military personnel with development and licensure of an effective tetravalent dengue vaccine a public health priority. The dengue viruses (DENVs) are mosquito-borne flaviviruses transmitted by infected Aedes mosquitoes. Illness manifests across a clinical spectrum with severe disease characterized by intravascular volume depletion and hemorrhage. DENV illness results from a complex interaction of viral properties and host immune responses. Dengue vaccine development efforts are challenged by immunologic complexity, lack of an adequate animal model of disease, absence of an immune correlate of protection, and only partially informative immunogenicity assays. A dengue human infection model (DHIM) will be an essential tool in developing potential dengue vaccines or antivirals. The potential performance parameters needed for a DHIM to support vaccine or antiviral candidates are discussed. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Dimensionality reduction of RKHS model parameters.
Taouali, Okba; Elaissi, Ilyes; Messaoud, Hassani
2015-07-01
This paper proposes a new method to reduce the parameter number of models developed in the Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS). In fact, this number is equal to the number of observations used in the learning phase which is assumed to be high. The proposed method entitled Reduced Kernel Partial Least Square (RKPLS) consists on approximating the retained latent components determined using the Kernel Partial Least Square (KPLS) method by their closest observation vectors. The paper proposes the design and the comparative study of the proposed RKPLS method and the Support Vector Machines on Regression (SVR) technique. The proposed method is applied to identify a nonlinear Process Trainer PT326 which is a physical process available in our laboratory. Moreover as a thermal process with large time response may help record easily effective observations which contribute to model identification. Compared to the SVR technique, the results from the proposed RKPLS method are satisfactory. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Convergence of surface diffusion parameters with model crystal size
Cohen, Jennifer M.; Voter, Arthur F.
1994-07-01
A study of the variation in the calculated quantities for adatom diffusion with respect to the size of the model crystal is presented. The reported quantities include surface diffusion barrier heights, pre-exponential factors, and dynamical correction factors. Embedded atom method (EAM) potentials were used throughout this effort. Both the layer size and the depth of the crystal were found to influence the values of the Arrhenius factors significantly. In particular, exchange type mechanisms required a significantly larger model than standard hopping mechanisms to determine adatom diffusion barriers of equivalent accuracy. The dynamical events that govern the corrections to transition state theory (TST) did not appear to be as sensitive to crystal depth. Suitable criteria for the convergence of the diffusion parameters with regard to the rate properties are illustrated.
Kristensen, Kasper; Jørgensen, Poul; Thorvaldsen, Andreas J; Helgaker, Trygve
2008-12-07
A general method is presented for the efficient elimination of response parameters in molecular property calculations for variational and nonvariational energies. For variational energies, Wigner's 2n+1 rule is obtained as a special case of the more general k(2n+1) rule, which states that for a subset of k perturbations within a total set of z>or=k perturbations, response parameters may be eliminated according to the 2n+1 rule (normally applied to the full set of perturbations). Nonvariational energies may be treated by introducing Lagrange multipliers that satisfy the stronger 2n+2 rule for the k perturbations, while the wave-function parameters still satisfy the 2n+1 rule for the k perturbations. The corresponding rule for nonvariational energies is referred to as the k(2n+1,2n+2) rule. For k=z, the well-known 2n+2 rule for the multipliers is reproduced, while the wave-function parameters satisfy the 2n+1 rule. The application of the k(2n+1) and k(2n+1,2n+2) rules minimizes the total number of response equations to be solved when the molecular property contains k extensive perturbations (e.g., geometrical derivatives) and z-k intensive perturbations (e.g., electric fields).
The identifiability of parameters in a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland
Perk, van der M.; Bierkens, M.F.P.
1997-01-01
The identifiability of model parameters of a steady state water quality model of the Biebrza River and the resulting variation in model results was examined by applying the Monte Carlo method which combines calibration, identifiability analysis, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis. The
Assessing the performance of variational methods for mixed logistic regression models
Rijmen, F.P.J.; Vomlel, J.
2008-01-01
We present a variational estimation method for the mixed logistic regression model. The method is based on a lower bound approximation of the logistic function [Jaakkola, J.S. and Jordan, M.I., 2000, Bayesian parameter estimation via variational methods. Statistics Computing, 10, 25-37.]. Based on
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Björn Reuter
2017-07-01
Full Text Available IntroductionBased on data from the Baden-Wuerttemberg stroke registry, we aimed to explore the diurnal variation of acute ischemic stroke (IS care delivery.Materials and methods92,530 IS patients were included, of whom 37,471 (40% presented within an onset-to-door time ≤4.5 h. Daytime was stratified in 3-h time intervals and working vs. non-working hours. Stroke onset and hospital admission time, rate of door-to-neurological examination time ≤30 min, onset-/door-to-imaging time IV thrombolysis (IVT rates, and onset-/door-to-needle time were determined. Multivariable regression models were used stratified by stroke onset and hospital admission time to assess the relationship between IVT rates, quality performance parameters, and daytime. The time interval 0:00 h to 3:00 h and working hours, respectively, were taken as reference.ResultsThe IVT rate of the whole study population was strongly associated with the sleep–wake cycle. In patients presenting within the 4.5-h time window and potentially eligible for IVT stratification by hospital admission time identified two time intervals with lower IVT rates. First, between 3:01 h and 6:00 h (IVT rate 18% and likely attributed to in-hospital delays with the lowest diurnal rate of door-to-neurological examination time ≤30 min and the longest door-to-needle time Second, between 6:01 h and 15:00 h (IVT rate 23–25% compared to the late afternoon and evening hours (IVT rate 27–29% due to a longer onset-to-imaging time and door-to-imaging time. No evidence for a compromised stroke service during non-working hours was observed.ConclusionThe analysis provides evidence that acute IS care is subject to diurnal variation which may affect stroke outcome. An optimization of IS care aiming at constantly high IVT rates over the course of the day therefore appears desirable.
Earth rotation parameter and variation during 2005–2010 solved with LAGEOS SLR data
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yi Shen
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Time series of Earth rotation parameters were estimated from range data measured by the satellite laser ranging technique to the Laser Geodynamics Satellites (LAGEOS-1/2 through 2005 to 2010 using the dynamic method. Compared with Earth orientation parameter (EOP C04, released by the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service, the root mean square errors for the measured X and Y of polar motion (PM and length of day (LOD were 0.24 and 0.25 milliarcseconds (mas, and 0.068 milliseconds (ms, respectively. Compared with ILRSA EOP, the X and Y of PM and LOD were 0.27 and 0.30 mas, and 0.054 ms, respectively. The time series were analyzed using the wavelet transformation and least squares methods. Wavelet analysis showed obvious seasonal and interannual variations of LOD, and both annual and Chandler variations of PM; however, the annual variation could not be distinguished from the Chandler variation because the two frequencies were very close. The trends and periodic variations of LOD and PM were obtained in the least squares sense, and PM showed semi-annual, annual, and Chandler periods. Semi-annual, annual, and quasi-biennial cycles for LOD were also detected. The trend rates of PM in the X and Y directions were 3.17 and −1.60 mas per year, respectively, and the North Pole moved to 26.8°E relative to the crust during 2005–2010. The trend rate of the LOD change was 0.028 ms per year.
Xu, Benjamin Y; Penteado, Rafaella C; Weinreb, Robert N
2018-01-01
To examine the diurnal variation of static and dynamic anterior segment parameters in young, healthy eyes by comparing anterior segment optical coherence tomography (AS-OCT) measurements obtained in the morning and evening and also in the light and dark. Twenty-two subjects ranging from 19 to 47 years of age with no past ocular history were selected. Imaging was performed with the Tomey CASIA2 AS-OCT device in 2 fixed lighting environments, light and dark, between the hours of 08:30 to 10:00 and 17:30 to 19:00. Four AS-OCT images were analyzed per eye. Pupil diameter (PD), iris area (IA), iris curvature (IC), anterior chamber depth (ACD), lens vault (LV), anterior chamber width (ACW), anterior chamber area (ACA), angle opening distance (AOD), angle recess area (ARA), trabecular iris space area (TISA), and trabecular iris angle (TIA) were measured. Pupil diameter was similar between the AM and PM groups in the light (P=0.89) and dark (P=0.51). There was no significant difference between AM and PM measurement values for any of the static or dynamic parameters in the light (P>0.39) and dark (P>0.31). Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) demonstrated excellent agreement between AM and PM measurement values in the light (ICC>0.81) and dark (ICC>0.93). In addition, there was no significant difference between AM and PM angle opening distance at 500 µm measurement values in the light (P>0.34) and dark (P>0.40) when each of 8 angle sectors was analyzed individually. No significant diurnal variation of static or dynamic anterior segment parameter measurements was detected in the light and dark. Diurnal variation of these parameters does not regularly occur in young, healthy eyes.
Nienałtowski, Karol; Włodarczyk, Michał; Lipniacki, Tomasz; Komorowski, Michał
2015-09-29
Compared to engineering or physics problems, dynamical models in quantitative biology typically depend on a relatively large number of parameters. Progress in developing mathematics to manipulate such multi-parameter models and so enable their efficient interplay with experiments has been slow. Existing solutions are significantly limited by model size. In order to simplify analysis of multi-parameter models a method for clustering of model parameters is proposed. It is based on a derived statistically meaningful measure of similarity between groups of parameters. The measure quantifies to what extend changes in values of some parameters can be compensated by changes in values of other parameters. The proposed methodology provides a natural mathematical language to precisely communicate and visualise effects resulting from compensatory changes in values of parameters. As a results, a relevant insight into identifiability analysis and experimental planning can be obtained. Analysis of NF-κB and MAPK pathway models shows that highly compensative parameters constitute clusters consistent with the network topology. The method applied to examine an exceptionally rich set of published experiments on the NF-κB dynamics reveals that the experiments jointly ensure identifiability of only 60% of model parameters. The method indicates which further experiments should be performed in order to increase the number of identifiable parameters. We currently lack methods that simplify broadly understood analysis of multi-parameter models. The introduced tools depict mutually compensative effects between parameters to provide insight regarding role of individual parameters, identifiability and experimental design. The method can also find applications in related methodological areas of model simplification and parameters estimation.
Owen-Smith, Norman
2011-07-01
1. There is a pressing need for population models that can reliably predict responses to changing environmental conditions and diagnose the causes of variation in abundance in space as well as through time. In this 'how to' article, it is outlined how standard population models can be modified to accommodate environmental variation in a heuristically conducive way. This approach is based on metaphysiological modelling concepts linking populations within food web contexts and underlying behaviour governing resource selection. Using population biomass as the currency, population changes can be considered at fine temporal scales taking into account seasonal variation. Density feedbacks are generated through the seasonal depression of resources even in the absence of interference competition. 2. Examples described include (i) metaphysiological modifications of Lotka-Volterra equations for coupled consumer-resource dynamics, accommodating seasonal variation in resource quality as well as availability, resource-dependent mortality and additive predation, (ii) spatial variation in habitat suitability evident from the population abundance attained, taking into account resource heterogeneity and consumer choice using empirical data, (iii) accommodating population structure through the variable sensitivity of life-history stages to resource deficiencies, affecting susceptibility to oscillatory dynamics and (iv) expansion of density-dependent equations to accommodate various biomass losses reducing population growth rate below its potential, including reductions in reproductive outputs. Supporting computational code and parameter values are provided. 3. The essential features of metaphysiological population models include (i) the biomass currency enabling within-year dynamics to be represented appropriately, (ii) distinguishing various processes reducing population growth below its potential, (iii) structural consistency in the representation of interacting populations and
Optimization of Experimental Model Parameter Identification for Energy Storage Systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rosario Morello
2013-09-01
Full Text Available The smart grid approach is envisioned to take advantage of all available modern technologies in transforming the current power system to provide benefits to all stakeholders in the fields of efficient energy utilisation and of wide integration of renewable sources. Energy storage systems could help to solve some issues that stem from renewable energy usage in terms of stabilizing the intermittent energy production, power quality and power peak mitigation. With the integration of energy storage systems into the smart grids, their accurate modeling becomes a necessity, in order to gain robust real-time control on the network, in terms of stability and energy supply forecasting. In this framework, this paper proposes a procedure to identify the values of the battery model parameters in order to best fit experimental data and integrate it, along with models of energy sources and electrical loads, in a complete framework which represents a real time smart grid management system. The proposed method is based on a hybrid optimisation technique, which makes combined use of a stochastic and a deterministic algorithm, with low computational burden and can therefore be repeated over time in order to account for parameter variations due to the battery’s age and usage.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rout, S.; Mishra, D.G.; Ravi, P.M.; Tripathi, R.M.
2016-01-01
Tritium is one of the radionuclides likely to get released to the environment from Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors. Environmental models are extensively used to quantify the complex environmental transport processes of radionuclides and also to assess the impact to the environment. Model parameters exerting the significant influence on model results are identified through a sensitivity analysis (SA). SA is the study of how the variation (uncertainty) in the output of a mathematical model can be apportioned, qualitatively or quantitatively, to different sources of variation in the input parameters. This study was designed to identify the sensitive model parameters of specific activity model (TRS 1616, IAEA) for environmental transfer of 3 H following release to air and then to vegetation and animal products. Model includes parameters such as air to soil transfer factor (CRs), Tissue Free Water 3 H to Organically Bound 3 H ratio (Rp), Relative humidity (RH), WCP (fractional water content) and WEQp (water equivalent factor) any change in these parameters leads to change in 3 H level in vegetation and animal products consequently change in dose due to ingestion. All these parameters are function of climate and/or plant which change with time, space and species. Estimation of these parameters at every time is a time consuming and also required sophisticated instrumentation. Therefore it is necessary to identify the sensitive parameters and freeze the values of least sensitive parameters at constant values for more accurate estimation of 3 H dose in short time for routine assessment
Schlaffke, Lara; Rehmann, Robert; Froeling, Martijn; Kley, Rudolf; Tegenthoff, Martin; Vorgerd, Matthias; Schmidt-Wilcke, Tobias
2017-10-01
To investigate to what extent inter- and intramuscular variations of diffusion parameters of human calf muscles can be explained by age, gender, muscle location, and body mass index (BMI) in a specific age group (20-35 years). Whole calf muscles of 18 healthy volunteers were evaluated. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) was performed using a 3T scanner and a 16-channel Torso XL coil. Diffusion-weighted images were acquired to perform fiber tractography and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) analysis for each muscle of both legs. Fiber tractography was used to separate seven lower leg muscles. Associations between DTI parameters and confounds were evaluated. All muscles were additionally separated in seven identical segments along the z-axis to evaluate intramuscular differences in diffusion parameters. Fractional anisotropy (FA) and mean diffusivity (MD) were obtained for each muscle with low standard deviations (SDs) (SD FA : 0.01-0.02; SD MD : 0.07-0.14(10 -3 )). We found significant differences in FA values of the tibialis anterior muscle (AT) and extensor digitorum longus (EDL) muscles between men and women for whole muscle FA (two-sample t-tests; AT: P = 0.0014; EDL: P = 0.0004). We showed significant intramuscular differences in diffusion parameters between adjacent segments in most calf muscles (P muscle insertions showed higher (SD 0.03-0.06) than muscle bellies (SD 0.01-0.03), no relationships between FA or MD with age or BMI were found. Inter- and intramuscular variations in diffusion parameters of the calf were shown, which are not related to age or BMI in this age group. Differences between muscle belly and insertion should be considered when interpreting datasets not including whole muscles. 3 Technical Efficacy: Stage 1 J. Magn. Reson. Imaging 2017;46:1137-1148. © 2017 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hendrickx, Gretl; Boudin, Eveline; Fijałkowski, Igor
2014-01-01
The importance of WNT16 in the regulation of bone metabolism was recently confirmed by several genome-wide association studies and by a Wnt16 (Wnt16(-/-)) knockout mouse model. The aim of this study was thus to replicate and further elucidate the effect of common genetic variation in WNT16...... on osteoporosis related parameters. Hereto, we performed a WNT16 candidate gene association study in a population of healthy Caucasian men from the Odense Androgen Study (OAS). Using HapMap, five tagSNPs and one multimarker test were selected for genotyping to cover most of the common genetic variation...... in and around WNT16 (MAF>5%). This study confirmed previously reported associations for rs3801387 and rs2707466 with bone mineral density (BMD) at several sites. Furthermore, we additionally demonstrated that rs2908007 is strongly associated with BMD at several sites in the young, elderly and complete OAS...
Parameters-related uncertainty in modeling sugar cane yield with an agro-Land Surface Model
Valade, A.; Ciais, P.; Vuichard, N.; Viovy, N.; Ruget, F.; Gabrielle, B.
2012-12-01
uptake of water (root profile), and transpiration and respiration (stomatal conductance, growth and maintenance respiration coefficients). We find that the optimal carboxylation rate and optimal photosynthesis temperature parameters contribute most to the uncertainty in NPP and GPP simulations whereas stomatal conductance is the most sensitive parameter controlling SH, followed by optimal photosynthesis temperature and optimal carboxylation rate. The spatial variation of the ranked correlation between input parameters and output variables is well explained by rain and temperature drivers, suggesting that climate mediated regionally different sensitivities of modeled sugarcane yield to the model parameters, for Australia and Brazil.
Study of gain variation as a function of physical parameters of GEM foil
Das, Supriya
2015-01-01
The ALICE experiment at LHC has planned to upgrade the TPC by replacing the MWPC with GEM based detecting elements to restrict the IBF to a tolerable value. However the variation of the gain as a function of physical parameters of industrially produced large size GEM foils is needed to be studied as a part of the QA procedure for the detector. The size of the electron avalanche and consequently the gain for GEM based detectors depend on the electric field distribution inside the holes. Geometry of a hole plays an important role in defining the electric field inside it. In this work we have studied the variation of the gain as a function of the hole diameters using Garfield++ simulation package.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. E. Shalaginov
2018-01-01
Full Text Available In the regions of high seismic activity, investigations of fault zones are of paramount importance as such zones can generate seismicity. A top task in the regional studies is determining the rates of activity from the data obtained by geoelectrical methods, especially considering the data on the faults covered by sediments. From a practical standpoint, the results of these studies are important for seismic zoning and forecasting of natural and anthropogenic geodynamic phenomena that may potentially occur in the populated areas and zones allocated for construction of industrial and civil objects, pipelines, roads, bridges, etc. Seismic activity in Gorny Altai is regularly monitored after the destructive 2003 Chuya earthquake (M=7.3 by the non-stationary electromagnetic sounding with galvanic and inductive sources of three modifications. From the long-term measurements that started in 2007 and continue in the present, electrical resistivity and electrical anisotropy are determined. Our study aimed to estimate the variations of these electrophysical parameters in the zone influenced by the fault, consider the intensity of the variations in comparison with seismicity indicators, and attempt at determining the degree of activity of the faults. Based on the results of our research, we propose a technique for measuring and interpreting the data sets obtained by a complex of non-stationary sounding modifications. The technique ensures a more precise evaluation of the electrophysical parameters. It is concluded that the electric anisotropy coefficient can be effectively used to characterize the current seismicity, and its maximum variations, being observed in the zone influenced by the fault, are characteristic of the fault activity. The use of two electrophysical parameters enhances the informativeness of the study.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Oshtrakh, M. I.; Novikov, E. G.; Dubiel, S. M.; Semionkin, V. A.
2010-01-01
Several commercially available medicaments containing ferrous fumarate (FeC 4 H 2 O 4 ) and ferrous sulfate (FeSO 4 ), as a source of ferrous iron, were studied using a high velocity resolution Mössbauer spectroscopy. A comparison of the 57 Fe hyperfine parameters revealed small variations for the main components in both medicaments indicating some differences in the ferrous fumarates and ferrous sulfates. It was also found that all spectra contained additional minor components probably related to ferrous and ferric impurities or to partially modified main components.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Oshtrakh, M. I., E-mail: oshtrakh@mail.utnet.ru; Novikov, E. G. [Ural Federal University (The former Ural State Technical University-UPI), Faculty of Physical Techniques and Devices for Quality Control (Russian Federation); Dubiel, S. M. [AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Physics and Computer Science (Poland); Semionkin, V. A. [Ural Federal University (The former Ural State Technical University-UPI), Faculty of Physical Techniques and Devices for Quality Control (Russian Federation)
2010-04-15
Several commercially available medicaments containing ferrous fumarate (FeC{sub 4}H{sub 2}O{sub 4}) and ferrous sulfate (FeSO{sub 4}), as a source of ferrous iron, were studied using a high velocity resolution Moessbauer spectroscopy. A comparison of the {sup 57}Fe hyperfine parameters revealed small variations for the main components in both medicaments indicating some differences in the ferrous fumarates and ferrous sulfates. It was also found that all spectra contained additional minor components probably related to ferrous and ferric impurities or to partially modified main components.
A normalized wave number variation parameter for acoustic black hole design.
Feurtado, Philip A; Conlon, Stephen C; Semperlotti, Fabio
2014-08-01
In recent years, the concept of the Acoustic Black Hole has been developed as an efficient passive, lightweight absorber of bending waves in plates and beams. Theory predicts greater absorption for a higher thickness taper power. However, a higher taper power also increases the violation of an underlying theory smoothness assumption. This paper explores the effects of high taper power on the reflection coefficient and spatial change in wave number and discusses the normalized wave number variation as a spatial design parameter for performance, assessment, and optimization.
Sample Size and Item Parameter Estimation Precision When Utilizing the One-Parameter "Rasch" Model
Custer, Michael
2015-01-01
This study examines the relationship between sample size and item parameter estimation precision when utilizing the one-parameter model. Item parameter estimates are examined relative to "true" values by evaluating the decline in root mean squared deviation (RMSD) and the number of outliers as sample size increases. This occurs across…
Models for estimating photosynthesis parameters from in situ production profiles
Kovač, Žarko; Platt, Trevor; Sathyendranath, Shubha; Antunović, Suzana
2017-12-01
The rate of carbon assimilation in phytoplankton primary production models is mathematically prescribed with photosynthesis irradiance functions, which convert a light flux (energy) into a material flux (carbon). Information on this rate is contained in photosynthesis parameters: the initial slope and the assimilation number. The exactness of parameter values is crucial for precise calculation of primary production. Here we use a model of the daily production profile based on a suite of photosynthesis irradiance functions and extract photosynthesis parameters from in situ measured daily production profiles at the Hawaii Ocean Time-series station Aloha. For each function we recover parameter values, establish parameter distributions and quantify model skill. We observe that the choice of the photosynthesis irradiance function to estimate the photosynthesis parameters affects the magnitudes of parameter values as recovered from in situ profiles. We also tackle the problem of parameter exchange amongst the models and the effect it has on model performance. All models displayed little or no bias prior to parameter exchange, but significant bias following parameter exchange. The best model performance resulted from using optimal parameter values. Model formulation was extended further by accounting for spectral effects and deriving a spectral analytical solution for the daily production profile. The daily production profile was also formulated with time dependent growing biomass governed by a growth equation. The work on parameter recovery was further extended by exploring how to extract photosynthesis parameters from information on watercolumn production. It was demonstrated how to estimate parameter values based on a linearization of the full analytical solution for normalized watercolumn production and from the solution itself, without linearization. The paper complements previous works on photosynthesis irradiance models by analysing the skill and consistency of
MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF THE PHYSICO MECHANICAL PARAMETERS VARIATION FOR HYDROPHOBIC TEXTILE
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AILENI Raluca Maria
2017-05-01
Full Text Available This work presents a multivariate analyse regarding textile surfaces treated with fluorocarbon chemicals in order to obtain hydrophobic effect. The hydrophobic characteristics of the textile samples (cotton 100% were obtained after hydrophobization treatement in the laboratory, by using chemicals based on fluorocarbon and by process parameters variation (temperature, time. Experimental data were evaluated by means of laboratory tests and multivariate analysis in order to observe covariance and the connections between the process parameters and the final characteristics of the fabric hydrophobizated. For evaluating the hydrophobic effect, some investigations were performed by qualitative method Spraytest for determinating the resistance to surface wetting in accordance with the standard SR EN ISO 4920-2013, air permeability according to SR EN ISO 9237:1999 standard and contact angle computing by using the device VCA Optima for contact angle measuring, in accordance to the standard ASTM D7490-2008. In order to highlight the morphological changes that appear on the cotton fibers, samples were examined using scanning electron microscopy device (SEM with the magnitude of X2000 X4000, X8000. The purpose of multivariate analysis for parameters and influence factors for hydrophobization process, based on fluorocarbon, is to obtain information relating to the dependent variables and independent, which influence the process. We establish some dependence between parameters (contact angle, spray test resistance, air permeability by using covariance matrix analysis. This analysis shows that contact angle and the resistance to spray test are in direct dependence and in reverse dependence with the air permeability.
Change in lameness risk estimates in piglets due to the modelling of herd-level variation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Josiassen, M.K.; Christensen, J.
1999-01-01
(HEPS) system database. To further investigate the change in the effect parameter, we performed a simple test to demonstrate the presence of herd-level variation. Finding substantial herd-level variation, we have re-analysed the data with special attention to the herd-level variation, and how to account...... for it. When herd-level variation was not accounted for in the model, a detrimental effect of prior treatment of the sow was seen but this turned into a beneficial effect when we accounted for the herd-level variation. The treatment of sow refers to any therapeutic treatment given to the sow after...... farrowing but before lameness or weaning occurred. This is, therefore, an example where not only the variances but also the effect parameters changed when we accounted for herd-level variation....
Optimizing incomplete sample designs for item response model parameters
van der Linden, Willem J.
Several models for optimizing incomplete sample designs with respect to information on the item parameters are presented. The following cases are considered: (1) known ability parameters; (2) unknown ability parameters; (3) item sets with multiple ability scales; and (4) response models with
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vasconcelos, Wagner Eustaquio de; Lira, Carlos Alberto Brayner de Oliveira; Brito, Thiago Souza Pereira de; Afonso, Antonio Claudio Marques; Cruz Filho, Antonio Jose da; Marques, Jose Antonio; Teixeira, Marcello Goulart
2013-01-01
Nuclear reactors are in nature nonlinear systems and their parameters vary with time as a function of power level. These characteristics must be considered if large power variations occur in power plant operational regimes, such as in load-following conditions. A PWR reactor has a component called pressurizer, whose function is to supply the necessary high pressure for its operation and to contain pressure variations in the primary cooling system. The use of control systems capable of reducing fast variations of the operation variables and to maintain the stability of this system is of fundamental importance. The best-known controllers used in industrial control processes are proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controllers due to their simple structure and robust performance in a wide range of operating conditions. However, designing a fuzzy controller is seen to be a much less difficult task. Once a Fuzzy Logic controller is designed for a particular set of parameters of the nonlinear element, it yields satisfactory performance for a range of these parameters. The objective of this work is to develop fuzzy proportional-integral-derivative (fuzzy-PID) control strategies to control the level of water in the reactor. In the study of the pressurizer, several computer codes are used to simulate its dynamic behavior. At the fuzzy-PID control strategy, the fuzzy logic controller is exploited to extend the finite sets of PID gains to the possible combinations of PID gains in stable region. Thus the fuzzy logic controller tunes the gain of PID controller to adapt the model with changes in the water level of reactor. The simulation results showed a favorable performance with the use to fuzzy-PID controllers. (author)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Vasconcelos, Wagner Eustaquio de; Lira, Carlos Alberto Brayner de Oliveira; Brito, Thiago Souza Pereira de; Afonso, Antonio Claudio Marques, E-mail: wagner@unicap.br, E-mail: cabol@ufpe.br, E-mail: afonsofisica@gmail.com, E-mail: thiago.brito86@yahoo.com.br [Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE), Recife, PE (Brazil). Centro de Tecnologia e Geociencias. Departamento de Energia Nuclear; Cruz Filho, Antonio Jose da; Marques, Jose Antonio, E-mail: antonio.jscf@gmail.com, E-mail: jamarkss@uol.com.br [Universidade Catolica de Pernambuco (CCT/PUC-PE), Recife, PE (Brazil). Centro de Ciencias e Tecnologia; Teixeira, Marcello Goulart, E-mail: marcellogt@dcc.ufrj.br [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Instituto de Matematica. Dept. de Matematica
2013-07-01
Nuclear reactors are in nature nonlinear systems and their parameters vary with time as a function of power level. These characteristics must be considered if large power variations occur in power plant operational regimes, such as in load-following conditions. A PWR reactor has a component called pressurizer, whose function is to supply the necessary high pressure for its operation and to contain pressure variations in the primary cooling system. The use of control systems capable of reducing fast variations of the operation variables and to maintain the stability of this system is of fundamental importance. The best-known controllers used in industrial control processes are proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controllers due to their simple structure and robust performance in a wide range of operating conditions. However, designing a fuzzy controller is seen to be a much less difficult task. Once a Fuzzy Logic controller is designed for a particular set of parameters of the nonlinear element, it yields satisfactory performance for a range of these parameters. The objective of this work is to develop fuzzy proportional-integral-derivative (fuzzy-PID) control strategies to control the level of water in the reactor. In the study of the pressurizer, several computer codes are used to simulate its dynamic behavior. At the fuzzy-PID control strategy, the fuzzy logic controller is exploited to extend the finite sets of PID gains to the possible combinations of PID gains in stable region. Thus the fuzzy logic controller tunes the gain of PID controller to adapt the model with changes in the water level of reactor. The simulation results showed a favorable performance with the use to fuzzy-PID controllers. (author)
NUMERICAL MODELING OF TRIMONTHLY VARIATION OF VEGETATION PHYSICAL PARAMETERS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gabriel Pereira
2013-12-01
Full Text Available O presente trabalho teve como objetivo verificar o impacto da atualização dos parâmetros físico-químicos e biológicos utilizados pelo Biosphere Atmosphere Transfer Scheme(BATS acoplado no modelo numérico RegCM4. Na rodada de controle, utilizando os dados originais do RegCM4, a precipitação para o ano de 2007 foi subestimada em 12%, apresentando uma correlação de 84% (significante a p<0,05, teste t-student. Porém, com a modelagem da variação trimestral dos parâmetros físicos, obteve-se uma redução significativa do erro nos valores de precipitação (subestimativa de 3% e correlação de 92%, significante a p<0,05, teste t-student. Ainda, em relação à temperatura máxima e mínima, percebe-se que ambas as simulações apresentam boa concordância com os dados observados.
On the possibility of a decay ratio jump under continuous parameter variation in a BWR
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lange, Carsten; Hennig, Dieter; Hurtado, Antonio [Technische Univ. Dresden (Germany). Professur fuer Wasserstoff- und Kernenergietechnik
2012-11-01
The objective of this paper is to demonstrate that specific methods of the nonlinear dynamics like bifurcation analysis are helpful to understand the temporal behavior of the nonlinear dynamical system BWR in many details. So, the stability state of the system changes discontinuously if a nonlinear dynamical system encountered a Hopf bifurcation under parameter variation. BWR stability analysis is performed in the most cases by application of system codes which provide the time evolution of the neutron flux or thermal power at a defined operational point (OP) after imposing a system parameter perturbation (like a control rod sinusoidal movement). However, in general, we are not able to understand the real stability state of the BWR at a specific OP by application of system code analysis alone. We have shown in the paper that complex dynamical states with coexisting stability modes (fixed points, stable and unstable limit cycles) could spontaneously emerge under selected system parameter variations. Hence, even in the relative simple case where stable fixed points and unstable limit cycles coexist, in the framework of a stability test the unstable dynamical mode could be overlooked because the simple stability linear indicator ''decay ratio'' does not indicate an unstable state for small amplitude perturbations. Or, e.g., both, the in-phase and the out-of-phase oscillation mode can encounter a Hopf bifurcation (everyone for itself) resulting in a change of the stability characteristics which cannot be ''detected'' by the asymptotic decay ratio. (orig.)
Study on Parameters Modeling of Wind Turbines Using SCADA Data
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yonglong YAN
2014-08-01
Full Text Available Taking the advantage of the current massive monitoring data from Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA system of wind farm, it is of important significance for anomaly detection, early warning and fault diagnosis to build the data model of state parameters of wind turbines (WTs. The operational conditions and the relationships between the state parameters of wind turbines are complex. It is difficult to establish the model of state parameter accurately, and the modeling method of state parameters of wind turbines considering parameter selection is proposed. Firstly, by analyzing the characteristic of SCADA data, a reasonable range of data and monitoring parameters are chosen. Secondly, neural network algorithm is adapted, and the selection method of input parameters in the model is presented. Generator bearing temperature and cooling air temperature are regarded as target parameters, and the two models are built and input parameters of the models are selected, respectively. Finally, the parameter selection method in this paper and the method using genetic algorithm-partial least square (GA-PLS are analyzed comparatively, and the results show that the proposed methods are correct and effective. Furthermore, the modeling of two parameters illustrate that the method in this paper can applied to other state parameters of wind turbines.
Parameter and Uncertainty Estimation in Groundwater Modelling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jensen, Jacob Birk
The data basis on which groundwater models are constructed is in general very incomplete, and this leads to uncertainty in model outcome. Groundwater models form the basis for many, often costly decisions and if these are to be made on solid grounds, the uncertainty attached to model results must...... be quantified. This study was motivated by the need to estimate the uncertainty involved in groundwater models.Chapter 2 presents an integrated surface/subsurface unstructured finite difference model that was developed and applied to a synthetic case study.The following two chapters concern calibration...... was applied.Capture zone modelling was conducted on a synthetic stationary 3-dimensional flow problem involving river, surface and groundwater flow. Simulated capture zones were illustrated as likelihood maps and compared with a deterministic capture zones derived from a reference model. The results showed...
Long Memory of Financial Time Series and Hidden Markov Models with Time-Varying Parameters
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nystrup, Peter; Madsen, Henrik; Lindström, Erik
2016-01-01
Hidden Markov models are often used to model daily returns and to infer the hidden state of financial markets. Previous studies have found that the estimated models change over time, but the implications of the time-varying behavior have not been thoroughly examined. This paper presents an adaptive...... estimation approach that allows for the parameters of the estimated models to be time varying. It is shown that a two-state Gaussian hidden Markov model with time-varying parameters is able to reproduce the long memory of squared daily returns that was previously believed to be the most difficult fact...... to reproduce with a hidden Markov model. Capturing the time-varying behavior of the parameters also leads to improved one-step density forecasts. Finally, it is shown that the forecasting performance of the estimated models can be further improved using local smoothing to forecast the parameter variations....
WINKLER'S SINGLE-PARAMETER SUBGRADE MODEL FROM ...
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SUBGRADE MODELING. Asrat Worku. Department of ... The models give consistently larger stiffness for the Winkler springs as compared to previously proposed similar continuum-based models that ignore the lateral stresses. ...... (ν = 0.25 and E = 40MPa); (b) a medium stiff clay (ν = 0.45 and E = 50MPa). In contrast to this, ...
Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)
Fernandes, C.E.G.; Das, A.; Naik, S.S.; Sharma, R.; LokaBharathi, P.A.
The variation in bacterial parameters of coastal waters and sediments of Kalbadevi Bay, Ratnagiri, Maharashtra, India was examined for immediate response after simulated mining. Sampling was carried out at suction and disturbance points in the water...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Trine B; Jødal, Lars; Arveschoug, Anne
2011-01-01
BACKGROUND & AIMS: Bioimpedance spectroscopy (BIS) offers the possibility to perform rapid estimates of fluid distribution and body composition. Few studies, however, have addressed the precision and biological variation in a pediatric population. Our objectives were to evaluate precision, variat....... A linear mixed model was used for statistical analysis. RESULTS: The precision was 0.3-0.8% in children ≥6 years and 0.5-2.4% in children.......4-14.9 years) had one series measured on day one (precision population). Forty-four children had a second series on day one (within-day sub-population). Thirty-two children had a series measured on the next day (between-day sub-population). Each measurement series consisted of three repeated measurements......, variation within- and between-days for the BIS-determined parameters total body fluid, extra-cellular fluid, intra-cellular fluid, body cell mass, fat-free mass, extra-cellular resistance, intra-cellular resistance and percentage body fat using a Xitron 4200. METHODS: All 133 children (81 boys, 52 girls; 2...
Biological variation of platelet parameters determined by the Sysmex XN hematology analyzer.
Buoro, Sabrina; Seghezzi, Michela; Manenti, Barbara; Pacioni, Aurelio; Carobene, Anna; Ceriotti, Ferruccio; Ottomano, Cosimo; Lippi, Giuseppe
2017-07-01
This study was aimed to define the short- and medium-term biological variation (BV) estimates, the index of individuality and the reference change value (RCV) of platelet count, platelet distribution width, mean platelet volume, platelet larger cell ratio, plateletcrit and immature platelet fraction. The study population consisted of 43 health subjects, who participated to the assessment of medium-term (21 subjects; blood sampling once a week for 5 consecutive weeks) and short-term (22 subjects; blood sampling once a day for 5 consecutive days) BV study, using Sysmex XN-module. Eight subjects were also scheduled to participate to both phases. The data were subject to outlier analysis prior to CV-ANOVA, to determine the BV estimates with the relative confidence intervals. The medium-term and short-term within-subject BV (CV I ) was comprised between 2.3 and 7.0% and 1.1-8.6%, whereas the medium-term and short-term between-subjects BV (CV G ) was comprised between 7.1 and 20.7% and 6.8-48.6%. The index of individuality and index of heterogeneity were always respectively 0.63 for all the parameters, in both arms of the study. The RCVs were similar for all parameters, in both arms of the study. This study allowed to define the BV estimates of many platelet parameters, some of them unavailable in literature. The kinetics of platelet turnover suggests the use of short-term BV data for calculating analytical goals and RCV. The correct clinical interpretation of platelet parameters also necessitates that each laboratory estimates local RCV values. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Identifying the connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
B. Guse
2017-11-01
Full Text Available In hydrological models, parameters are used to represent the time-invariant characteristics of catchments and to capture different aspects of hydrological response. Hence, model parameters need to be identified based on their role in controlling the hydrological behaviour. For the identification of meaningful parameter values, multiple and complementary performance criteria are used that compare modelled and measured discharge time series. The reliability of the identification of hydrologically meaningful model parameter values depends on how distinctly a model parameter can be assigned to one of the performance criteria. To investigate this, we introduce the new concept of connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria. The connective strength assesses the intensity in the interrelationship between model parameters and performance criteria in a bijective way. In our analysis of connective strength, model simulations are carried out based on a latin hypercube sampling. Ten performance criteria including Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE, Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE and its three components (alpha, beta and r as well as RSR (the ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation for different segments of the flow duration curve (FDC are calculated. With a joint analysis of two regression tree (RT approaches, we derive how a model parameter is connected to different performance criteria. At first, RTs are constructed using each performance criterion as the target variable to detect the most relevant model parameters for each performance criterion. Secondly, RTs are constructed using each parameter as the target variable to detect which performance criteria are impacted by changes in the values of one distinct model parameter. Based on this, appropriate performance criteria are identified for each model parameter. In this study, a high bijective connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria
Online Estimation of Model Parameters of Lithium-Ion Battery Using the Cubature Kalman Filter
Tian, Yong; Yan, Rusheng; Tian, Jindong; Zhou, Shijie; Hu, Chao
2017-11-01
Online estimation of state variables, including state-of-charge (SOC), state-of-energy (SOE) and state-of-health (SOH) is greatly crucial for the operation safety of lithium-ion battery. In order to improve estimation accuracy of these state variables, a precise battery model needs to be established. As the lithium-ion battery is a nonlinear time-varying system, the model parameters significantly vary with many factors, such as ambient temperature, discharge rate and depth of discharge, etc. This paper presents an online estimation method of model parameters for lithium-ion battery based on the cubature Kalman filter. The commonly used first-order resistor-capacitor equivalent circuit model is selected as the battery model, based on which the model parameters are estimated online. Experimental results show that the presented method can accurately track the parameters variation at different scenarios.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tashchilova, Eh.M.; Sharovarov, G.A.
1985-01-01
The mathematical model of nonstationary processes in heat exchangers with dissociating coolant at supercritical parameters is given. Its dimensionless criteria are deveped. The effect of NPP regenerator parameters on criteria variation is determined. The proceeding nonstationary processes are estimated qualitatively using the dimensionless parameters. Dynamics of the processes in heat exchangers is described by the energy, mass and moment-of-momentum equations for heating and heated medium taking into account heat accumulation in the heat-transfer wall and distribution of parameters along the length of a heat exchanger
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rodriguez-Regent, Christine; Hafsa, Monia; Ben Hassen, Wagih; Edjlali, Myriam; Trystram, Denis; Al-Shareef, Fawaz; Meder, Jean-Francois; Oppenheim, Catherine; Naggara, Olivier; Turc, Guillaume; Sermet, Alain; Laquay, Nathalie; Devaux, Bertrand
2016-01-01
To prospectively evaluate the predictive value of cerebral perfusion-computerized tomography (CTP) parameters variation between day0 and day4 after aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (aSAH). Mean transit time (MTT) and cerebral blood flow (CBF) values were compared between patients with delayed cerebral ischemia (DCI+ group) and patients without DCI (DCI- group) for previously published optimal cutoff values and for variations of MTT (ΔMTT) and of CBF (ΔCBF) values between day0 and day4. DCI+ was defined as a cerebral infarction on 3-months follow-up MRI. Among 47 included patients, 10 suffered DCI+. Published optimal cutoff values did not predict DCI, either at day0 or at day4. Conversely, ΔMTT and ΔCBF significantly differed between the DCI+ and DCI- groups, with optimal ΔMTT and ΔCBF values of 0.91 seconds (83.9 % sensitivity, 79.5 % specificity, AUC 0.84) and -7.6 mL/100 g/min (100 % sensitivity, 71.4 % specificity, AUC 0.86), respectively. In multivariate analysis, ΔCBF (OR = 1.91, IC95% 1.13-3.23 per each 20 % decrease of ΔCBF) and ΔMTT values (OR = 14.70, IC95% 4.85-44.52 per each 20 % increase of ΔMTT) were independent predictors of DCI. Assessment of MTT and CBF value variations between day0 and day4 may serve as an early imaging surrogate for prediction of DCI in aSAH. (orig.)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jonathan R Karr
2015-05-01
Full Text Available Whole-cell models that explicitly represent all cellular components at the molecular level have the potential to predict phenotype from genotype. However, even for simple bacteria, whole-cell models will contain thousands of parameters, many of which are poorly characterized or unknown. New algorithms are needed to estimate these parameters and enable researchers to build increasingly comprehensive models. We organized the Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods (DREAM 8 Whole-Cell Parameter Estimation Challenge to develop new parameter estimation algorithms for whole-cell models. We asked participants to identify a subset of parameters of a whole-cell model given the model's structure and in silico "experimental" data. Here we describe the challenge, the best performing methods, and new insights into the identifiability of whole-cell models. We also describe several valuable lessons we learned toward improving future challenges. Going forward, we believe that collaborative efforts supported by inexpensive cloud computing have the potential to solve whole-cell model parameter estimation.
Estimation of Kinetic Parameters in an Automotive SCR Catalyst Model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Åberg, Andreas; Widd, Anders; Abildskov, Jens
2016-01-01
A challenge during the development of models for simulation of the automotive Selective Catalytic Reduction catalyst is the parameter estimation of the kinetic parameters, which can be time consuming and problematic. The parameter estimation is often carried out on small-scale reactor tests...
Edge Modeling by Two Blur Parameters in Varying Contrasts.
Seo, Suyoung
2018-06-01
This paper presents a method of modeling edge profiles with two blur parameters, and estimating and predicting those edge parameters with varying brightness combinations and camera-to-object distances (COD). First, the validity of the edge model is proven mathematically. Then, it is proven experimentally with edges from a set of images captured for specifically designed target sheets and with edges from natural images. Estimation of the two blur parameters for each observed edge profile is performed with a brute-force method to find parameters that produce global minimum errors. Then, using the estimated blur parameters, actual blur parameters of edges with arbitrary brightness combinations are predicted using a surface interpolation method (i.e., kriging). The predicted surfaces show that the two blur parameters of the proposed edge model depend on both dark-side edge brightness and light-side edge brightness following a certain global trend. This is similar across varying CODs. The proposed edge model is compared with a one-blur parameter edge model using experiments of the root mean squared error for fitting the edge models to each observed edge profile. The comparison results suggest that the proposed edge model has superiority over the one-blur parameter edge model in most cases where edges have varying brightness combinations.
Estimation of Parameters in Latent Class Models with Constraints on the Parameters.
Paulson, James A.
This paper reviews the application of the EM Algorithm to marginal maximum likelihood estimation of parameters in the latent class model and extends the algorithm to the case where there are monotone homogeneity constraints on the item parameters. It is shown that the EM algorithm can be used to obtain marginal maximum likelihood estimates of the…
Joshi, Sagar D; Webb, Ken
2008-08-01
Dynamic mechanical culture systems are a widely studied approach for improving the functional mechanical properties of tissue engineering constructs intended for loading-bearing orthopedic applications such as tendon/ligament reconstruction. The design of effective mechanical stimulation regimes requires a fundamental understanding of the effects of cyclic strain parameters on the resulting construct properties. Toward this end, these studies employed a modular cyclic strain bioreactor system and fibroblast-seeded, porous polyurethane substrates to systematically investigate the effect of varying cyclic strain amplitude, rate, frequency, and daily cycle number on construct mechanical properties. Significant differences were observed in response to variation of all four loading parameters tested. In general, the highest values of elastic modulus within each experimental group were observed at low to intermediate values of the experimental variables tested, corresponding to the low to subphysiological range (2.5% strain amplitude, 25%/s strain rate, 0.1-0.5 Hz frequency, and 7,200-28,800 cycles/day). These studies demonstrate that fibroblasts are sensitive and responsive to multiple characteristics of their mechanical environment, and suggest that systematic optimization of dynamic culture conditions may be useful for the acceleration of construct maturation and mechanical function.
Marquez-Garcia, Josimar; Cruz-Félix, Angel S.; Santiago-Alvarado, Agustin; González-García, Jorge
2017-09-01
Nowadays the elastomer known as polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS, Sylgard 184), due to its physical properties, low cost and easy handle, have become a frequently used material for the elaboration of optical components such as: variable focal length liquid lenses, optical waveguides, solid elastic lenses, etc. In recent years, we have been working in the characterization of this material for applications in visual sciences; in this work, we describe the elaboration of PDMSmade samples, also, we present physical and optical properties of the samples by varying its synthesis parameters such as base: curing agent ratio, and both, curing time and temperature. In the case of mechanical properties, tensile and compression tests were carried out through a universal testing machine to obtain the respective stress-strain curves, and to obtain information regarding its optical properties, UV-vis spectroscopy is applied to the samples to obtain transmittance and absorbance curves. Index of refraction variation was obtained through an Abbe refractometer. Results from the characterization will determine the proper synthesis parameters for the elaboration of tunable refractive surfaces for potential applications in robotics.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Karantanas, A.H. [Department of CT-MRI, Larissa General Hospital (Greece); Zibis, A.H.; Papaliaga, M.; Georgiou, E.; Rousogiannis, S. [Larissa Medical School, University of Thessaly, Larissa (Greece)
1998-12-01
The aim of this study was to investigate the correlation of vertebral dimensions with somatometric parameters in patients without clinical symptoms and radiological signs of central lumbar spinal stenosis. One hundred patients presenting with low back pain or sciatica were studied with CT. In each of the L3, L4 and L5 vertebra three slices were taken with the following measurements: 1. Slice through the intervertebral disc: (a) spinal canal area; (b) interarticular diameter; (c) interligamentous diameter. 2. Slice below the vertebral arcus: (a) dural sac area; (b) vertebral body area. 3. Pediculolaminar level: (a) anteroposterior diameter and interpedicular diameter of the spinal canal; (b) spinal canal area; (c) width of the lateral recesses. The Jones-Thomson index was also estimated. The results of the present study showed that there is a statistically significant correlation of height, weight and age with various vertebral indices. The conventional, widely accepted, anteroposterior diameter of 11.5 mm of the lumbar spinal canal is independent of somatometric parameters, and it is the only constant measurement for the estimation of lumbar spinal stenosis with a single value. The present study suggests that there are variations of the dimensions of the lumbar spinal canal and correlations with height, weight and age of the patient. (orig.) With 1 fig., 6 tabs., 24 refs.
The effects of the variations of turbulence parameters on the observable turbulence statistics
Ding, S. Y.
2016-06-01
In order to study how the statistical properties of the observational quantities of the turbulent molecular cloud models vary with different turbulence parameters, I use the artificially generated random numerical models based on Gaussian fields created by the code PYFC with different values of the 1D density Fourier spectral index βn, the turbulence driving parameter, I.e. the b parameter and the 1D Fourier velocity power spectral index βv. Then I calculate the line profiles of 13CO emission on every sight line. I derive the statistical properties of column density N, line intensity W, peak intensity Tpeak and velocity dispersion Vrms on every sight line. I discover that as βn increases, (1) the standard deviations σln (N/) and σln (W/) of the logarithmic column density ln (N/) and the logarithmic integrated intensity ln (W/) increase; (2) the number of the low Tpeak values becomes larger; (3) the probability distribution function (PDF) of Vrms inclines to left a little. As the b parameter increases, (1) the values of both σln (N/) and σln (W/) increase; (2) the numbers of both the low Tpeak values and the saturated Tpeak values become larger; (3) the PDF of Vrms inclines to left obviously. As βv increases, (1) the PDF of ln (W/) remains generally unchanged; (2) the PDF of Tpeak remains generally unchanged; (3) the PDF of Vrms inclines to left obviously. I also discuss the relationship among σN/, Mach number, the b parameter and βn.
Seasonal variation of hemato-biochemical parameters in indigenous pig: Zovawk of Mizoram
Mayengbam, P.; Tolenkhomba, T. C.
2015-01-01
Aim: To investigate the influence of season on erythrocyte picture, plasma enzyme and electrolyte profile of local pig of Mizoram at a different age. Materials and Methods: A volume of 2 ml of blood samples were collected from 72 Zovawk pigs of three different age groups viz. pre-weaning, grower and adult pigs reared in College of Veterinary Sciences and Animal Husbandry Selesih, Aizawl, Mizoram, India, livestock farm during summer and winter in order to find out influence of season on erythrocyte picture, enzyme and electrolyte profile. The hematological parameters were estimated by using an automatic blood analyzer. The biochemical parameters were estimated by using diagnostic kits. Results: The grower pigs had lower hemoglobin (Hb), packed cell volume (PCV), mean corpuscular volume (MCV), mean corpuscular Hb (MCH) during summer, rainy and winter seasons (p<0.05) and lower MCH concentration (MCHC) during summer season (p<0.05). Adult pigs had lower Hb with higher total erythrocyte count in rainy season. PCV and MCV of adult pigs decreased in summer (p<0.05). Serum glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase activity of both the grower and adult groups increased during summer and rainy seasons (p<0.05). Zovawk pigs had higher sodium (Na) and lower potassium (K) in rainy season (p<0.05). Pre-weaning piglets had higher Na, K, calcium (Ca), and magnesium (Mg) in summer than in winter. Grower pigs had higher Na, K and Ca in summer (p<0.05). Pi of pre-weaning and grower groups was higher in winter. Adult pigs had lower alkaline phosphatase activity and Ca in summer and higher Pi and Mg in winter (p<0.05). Conclusion: Seasonal variation in some hemato-biochemical parameters of Zovawk pig were investigated. Influence of season on the hemato-biochemical profile was most evident during the grower stage, followed by adults and pre-weaning piglets. PMID:27065639
Na, Min Kyun; Won, Yu Deok; Kim, Choong Hyun; Kim, Jae Min; Cheong, Jin Hwan; Ryu, Je Il; Han, Myung-Hoon
2017-01-01
Hydrocephalus is a frequent complication following subarachnoid hemorrhage. Few studies investigated the association between laboratory parameters and shunt-dependent hydrocephalus. This study aimed to investigate the variations of laboratory parameters after subarachnoid hemorrhage. We also attempted to identify predictive laboratory parameters for shunt-dependent hydrocephalus. Multiple imputation was performed to fill the missing laboratory data using Bayesian methods in SPSS. We used univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses to calculate hazard ratios for shunt-dependent hydrocephalus based on clinical and laboratory factors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine the laboratory risk values predicting shunt-dependent hydrocephalus. We included 181 participants with a mean age of 54.4 years. Higher sodium (hazard ratio, 1.53; 95% confidence interval, 1.13-2.07; p = 0.005), lower potassium, and higher glucose levels were associated with higher shunt-dependent hydrocephalus. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the areas under the curve of sodium, potassium, and glucose were 0.649 (cutoff value, 142.75 mEq/L), 0.609 (cutoff value, 3.04 mmol/L), and 0.664 (cutoff value, 140.51 mg/dL), respectively. Despite the exploratory nature of this study, we found that higher sodium, lower potassium, and higher glucose levels were predictive values for shunt-dependent hydrocephalus from postoperative day (POD) 1 to POD 12-16 after subarachnoid hemorrhage. Strict correction of electrolyte imbalance seems necessary to reduce shunt-dependent hydrocephalus. Further large studies are warranted to confirm our findings.
Incremental parameter estimation of kinetic metabolic network models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jia Gengjie
2012-11-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background An efficient and reliable parameter estimation method is essential for the creation of biological models using ordinary differential equation (ODE. Most of the existing estimation methods involve finding the global minimum of data fitting residuals over the entire parameter space simultaneously. Unfortunately, the associated computational requirement often becomes prohibitively high due to the large number of parameters and the lack of complete parameter identifiability (i.e. not all parameters can be uniquely identified. Results In this work, an incremental approach was applied to the parameter estimation of ODE models from concentration time profiles. Particularly, the method was developed to address a commonly encountered circumstance in the modeling of metabolic networks, where the number of metabolic fluxes (reaction rates exceeds that of metabolites (chemical species. Here, the minimization of model residuals was performed over a subset of the parameter space that is associated with the degrees of freedom in the dynamic flux estimation from the concentration time-slopes. The efficacy of this method was demonstrated using two generalized mass action (GMA models, where the method significantly outperformed single-step estimations. In addition, an extension of the estimation method to handle missing data is also presented. Conclusions The proposed incremental estimation method is able to tackle the issue on the lack of complete parameter identifiability and to significantly reduce the computational efforts in estimating model parameters, which will facilitate kinetic modeling of genome-scale cellular metabolism in the future.
An approach to adjustment of relativistic mean field model parameters
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bayram Tuncay
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The Relativistic Mean Field (RMF model with a small number of adjusted parameters is powerful tool for correct predictions of various ground-state nuclear properties of nuclei. Its success for describing nuclear properties of nuclei is directly related with adjustment of its parameters by using experimental data. In the present study, the Artificial Neural Network (ANN method which mimics brain functionality has been employed for improvement of the RMF model parameters. In particular, the understanding capability of the ANN method for relations between the RMF model parameters and their predictions for binding energies (BEs of 58Ni and 208Pb have been found in agreement with the literature values.
A simulation of water pollution model parameter estimation
Kibler, J. F.
1976-01-01
A parameter estimation procedure for a water pollution transport model is elaborated. A two-dimensional instantaneous-release shear-diffusion model serves as representative of a simple transport process. Pollution concentration levels are arrived at via modeling of a remote-sensing system. The remote-sensed data are simulated by adding Gaussian noise to the concentration level values generated via the transport model. Model parameters are estimated from the simulated data using a least-squares batch processor. Resolution, sensor array size, and number and location of sensor readings can be found from the accuracies of the parameter estimates.
Lumped parameter models for the interpretation of environmental tracer data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Maloszewski, P.; Zuber, A.
1996-01-01
Principles of the lumped-parameter approach to the interpretation of environmental tracer data are given. The following models are considered: the piston flow model (PFM), exponential flow model (EM), linear model (LM), combined piston flow and exponential flow model (EPM), combined linear flow and piston flow model (LPM), and dispersion model (DM). The applicability of these models for the interpretation of different tracer data is discussed for a steady state flow approximation. Case studies are given to exemplify the applicability of the lumped-parameter approach. Description of a user-friendly computer program is given. (author). 68 refs, 25 figs, 4 tabs
A test for the parameters of multiple linear regression models ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
A test for the parameters of multiple linear regression models is developed for conducting tests simultaneously on all the parameters of multiple linear regression models. The test is robust relative to the assumptions of homogeneity of variances and absence of serial correlation of the classical F-test. Under certain null and ...
WATGIS: A GIS-Based Lumped Parameter Water Quality Model
Glenn P. Fernandez; George M. Chescheir; R. Wayne Skaggs; Devendra M. Amatya
2002-01-01
A Geographic Information System (GIS)Âbased, lumped parameter water quality model was developed to estimate the spatial and temporal nitrogenÂloading patterns for lower coastal plain watersheds in eastern North Carolina. The model uses a spatially distributed delivery ratio (DR) parameter to account for nitrogen retention or loss along a drainage network. Delivery...
Exploring the interdependencies between parameters in a material model.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Silling, Stewart Andrew; Fermen-Coker, Muge
2014-01-01
A method is investigated to reduce the number of numerical parameters in a material model for a solid. The basis of the method is to detect interdependencies between parameters within a class of materials of interest. The method is demonstrated for a set of material property data for iron and steel using the Johnson-Cook plasticity model.
Behmanesh, Iman; Moaveni, Babak
2016-07-01
This paper presents a Hierarchical Bayesian model updating framework to account for the effects of ambient temperature and excitation amplitude. The proposed approach is applied for model calibration, response prediction and damage identification of a footbridge under changing environmental/ambient conditions. The concrete Young's modulus of the footbridge deck is the considered updating structural parameter with its mean and variance modeled as functions of temperature and excitation amplitude. The identified modal parameters over 27 months of continuous monitoring of the footbridge are used to calibrate the updating parameters. One of the objectives of this study is to show that by increasing the levels of information in the updating process, the posterior variation of the updating structural parameter (concrete Young's modulus) is reduced. To this end, the calibration is performed at three information levels using (1) the identified modal parameters, (2) modal parameters and ambient temperatures, and (3) modal parameters, ambient temperatures, and excitation amplitudes. The calibrated model is then validated by comparing the model-predicted natural frequencies and those identified from measured data after deliberate change to the structural mass. It is shown that accounting for modeling error uncertainties is crucial for reliable response prediction, and accounting only the estimated variability of the updating structural parameter is not sufficient for accurate response predictions. Finally, the calibrated model is used for damage identification of the footbridge.
Regionalization of SWAT Model Parameters for Use in Ungauged Watersheds
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Indrajeet Chaubey
2010-11-01
Full Text Available There has been a steady shift towards modeling and model-based approaches as primary methods of assessing watershed response to hydrologic inputs and land management, and of quantifying watershed-wide best management practice (BMP effectiveness. Watershed models often require some degree of calibration and validation to achieve adequate watershed and therefore BMP representation. This is, however, only possible for gauged watersheds. There are many watersheds for which there are very little or no monitoring data available, thus the question as to whether it would be possible to extend and/or generalize model parameters obtained through calibration of gauged watersheds to ungauged watersheds within the same region. This study explored the possibility of developing regionalized model parameter sets for use in ungauged watersheds. The study evaluated two regionalization methods: global averaging, and regression-based parameters, on the SWAT model using data from priority watersheds in Arkansas. Resulting parameters were tested and model performance determined on three gauged watersheds. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (NS for stream flow obtained using regression-based parameters (0.53–0.83 compared well with corresponding values obtained through model calibration (0.45–0.90. Model performance obtained using global averaged parameter values was also generally acceptable (0.4 ≤ NS ≤ 0.75. Results from this study indicate that regionalized parameter sets for the SWAT model can be obtained and used for making satisfactory hydrologic response predictions in ungauged watersheds.
Bayesian estimation of parameters in a regional hydrological model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
K. Engeland
2002-01-01
Full Text Available This study evaluates the applicability of the distributed, process-oriented Ecomag model for prediction of daily streamflow in ungauged basins. The Ecomag model is applied as a regional model to nine catchments in the NOPEX area, using Bayesian statistics to estimate the posterior distribution of the model parameters conditioned on the observed streamflow. The distribution is calculated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC analysis. The Bayesian method requires formulation of a likelihood function for the parameters and three alternative formulations are used. The first is a subjectively chosen objective function that describes the goodness of fit between the simulated and observed streamflow, as defined in the GLUE framework. The second and third formulations are more statistically correct likelihood models that describe the simulation errors. The full statistical likelihood model describes the simulation errors as an AR(1 process, whereas the simple model excludes the auto-regressive part. The statistical parameters depend on the catchments and the hydrological processes and the statistical and the hydrological parameters are estimated simultaneously. The results show that the simple likelihood model gives the most robust parameter estimates. The simulation error may be explained to a large extent by the catchment characteristics and climatic conditions, so it is possible to transfer knowledge about them to ungauged catchments. The statistical models for the simulation errors indicate that structural errors in the model are more important than parameter uncertainties. Keywords: regional hydrological model, model uncertainty, Bayesian analysis, Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis
Brownian motion model with stochastic parameters for asset prices
Ching, Soo Huei; Hin, Pooi Ah
2013-09-01
The Brownian motion model may not be a completely realistic model for asset prices because in real asset prices the drift μ and volatility σ may change over time. Presently we consider a model in which the parameter x = (μ,σ) is such that its value x (t + Δt) at a short time Δt ahead of the present time t depends on the value of the asset price at time t + Δt as well as the present parameter value x(t) and m-1 other parameter values before time t via a conditional distribution. The Malaysian stock prices are used to compare the performance of the Brownian motion model with fixed parameter with that of the model with stochastic parameter.
Variational model for one-dimensional quantum magnets
Kudasov, Yu. B.; Kozabaranov, R. V.
2018-04-01
A new variational technique for investigation of the ground state and correlation functions in 1D quantum magnets is proposed. A spin Hamiltonian is reduced to a fermionic representation by the Jordan-Wigner transformation. The ground state is described by a new non-local trial wave function, and the total energy is calculated in an analytic form as a function of two variational parameters. This approach is demonstrated with an example of the XXZ-chain of spin-1/2 under a staggered magnetic field. Generalizations and applications of the variational technique for low-dimensional magnetic systems are discussed.
Modeling of Craniofacial Anatomy, Variation, and Growth
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Thorup, Signe Strann
the two images. To elaborate further: a computational atlas of the average anatomy was constructed. Using non-rigid registration, image data from a subject is automatically transformed into the coordinate space of the atlas. In this process, all knowledge built into the atlas is transferred to the subject......-subject variation etc. Besides image registration, a volumetric segmentation method using graph cuts was developed and applied for intracranial volume estimation. Graph cut is a fast method for segmentation utilizing a suitable graph. Three different craniofacial anomalies were examined in this thesis: Cleft lip...
Determination of the Corona model parameters with artificial neural networks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ahmet, Nayir; Bekir, Karlik; Arif, Hashimov
2005-01-01
Full text : The aim of this study is to calculate new model parameters taking into account the corona of electrical transmission line wires. For this purpose, a neural network modeling proposed for the corona frequent characteristics modeling. Then this model was compared with the other model developed at the Polytechnic Institute of Saint Petersburg. The results of development of the specified corona model for calculation of its influence on the wave processes in multi-wires line and determination of its parameters are submitted. Results of obtained calculation equations are brought for electrical transmission line with allowance for superficial effect in the ground and wires with reference to developed corona model
Spatio-temporal modeling of nonlinear distributed parameter systems
Li, Han-Xiong
2011-01-01
The purpose of this volume is to provide a brief review of the previous work on model reduction and identifi cation of distributed parameter systems (DPS), and develop new spatio-temporal models and their relevant identifi cation approaches. In this book, a systematic overview and classifi cation on the modeling of DPS is presented fi rst, which includes model reduction, parameter estimation and system identifi cation. Next, a class of block-oriented nonlinear systems in traditional lumped parameter systems (LPS) is extended to DPS, which results in the spatio-temporal Wiener and Hammerstein s
Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Henrik; Johansen, Søren
1999-01-01
Some methods for the evaluation of parameter constancy in vector autoregressive (VAR) models are discussed. Two different ways of re-estimating the VAR model are proposed; one in which all parameters are estimated recursively based upon the likelihood function for the first observations, and anot...... be applied to test the constancy of the long-run parameters in the cointegrated VAR-model. All results are illustrated using a model for the term structure of interest rates on US Treasury securities. ...
An empirical model of the quiet daily geomagnetic field variation
Yamazaki, Y.; Yumoto, K.; Cardinal, M.G.; Fraser, B.J.; Hattori, P.; Kakinami, Y.; Liu, J.Y.; Lynn, K.J.W.; Marshall, R.; McNamara, D.; Nagatsuma, T.; Nikiforov, V.M.; Otadoy, R.E.; Ruhimat, M.; Shevtsov, B.M.; Shiokawa, K.; Abe, S.; Uozumi, T.; Yoshikawa, A.
2011-01-01
An empirical model of the quiet daily geomagnetic field variation has been constructed based on geomagnetic data obtained from 21 stations along the 210 Magnetic Meridian of the Circum-pan Pacific Magnetometer Network (CPMN) from 1996 to 2007. Using the least squares fitting method for geomagnetically quiet days (Kp ??? 2+), the quiet daily geomagnetic field variation at each station was described as a function of solar activity SA, day of year DOY, lunar age LA, and local time LT. After interpolation in latitude, the model can describe solar-activity dependence and seasonal dependence of solar quiet daily variations (S) and lunar quiet daily variations (L). We performed a spherical harmonic analysis (SHA) on these S and L variations to examine average characteristics of the equivalent external current systems. We found three particularly noteworthy results. First, the total current intensity of the S current system is largely controlled by solar activity while its focus position is not significantly affected by solar activity. Second, we found that seasonal variations of the S current intensity exhibit north-south asymmetry; the current intensity of the northern vortex shows a prominent annual variation while the southern vortex shows a clear semi-annual variation as well as annual variation. Thirdly, we found that the total intensity of the L current system changes depending on solar activity and season; seasonal variations of the L current intensity show an enhancement during the December solstice, independent of the level of solar activity. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.
Determining extreme parameter correlation in ground water models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hill, Mary Cole; Østerby, Ole
2003-01-01
In ground water flow system models with hydraulic-head observations but without significant imposed or observed flows, extreme parameter correlation generally exists. As a result, hydraulic conductivity and recharge parameters cannot be uniquely estimated. In complicated problems, such correlation...... correlation coefficients with absolute values that round to 1.00 were good indicators of extreme parameter correlation, but smaller values were not necessarily good indicators of lack of correlation and resulting unique parameter estimates; (2) the SVD may be more difficult to interpret than parameter...
Plasticity in extended phenotypes: orb web architectural responses to variations in prey parameters.
Blamires, Sean J
2010-09-15
A spider orb web is an extended phenotype; it modifies and interacts with the environment, influencing spider physiology. Orb webs are plastic, responding to variations in prey parameters. Studies attempting to understand how nutrients influence spider orb-web plasticity have been hampered by the inability to decouple prey nutrients from other, highly correlated, prey factors and the intrinsic link between prey protein and prey energy concentration. I analyzed the nutrient concentrations of cockroaches, and adult and juvenile crickets to devise experiments that controlled prey protein concentration while varying prey size, ingested mass, energy concentration and feeding frequency of the orb web spider Argiope keyserlingi. I found that A. keyserlingi alters overall architecture according to feeding frequency. Decoration length was inversely related to ingested prey mass and/or energy density in one experiment but directly related to ingested prey mass in another. These contradictory results suggest that factors not examined in this study have a confounding influence on decoration plasticity. As decorations attract prey as well as predators decreasing decoration investment may, in some instances, be attributable to benefits no longer outweighing the risks. Web area was altered according to feeding frequency, and mesh size altered according to feeding frequency and prey length. The number of radii in orb webs was unaffected by prey parameters. A finite amount of silk can be invested in the orb web, so spiders trade-off smaller mesh size with larger web capture area, explaining why feeding frequency influenced both web area and mesh size. Mesh size is additionally responsive to prey size via sensory cues, with spiders constructing webs suitable for catching the most common or most profitable prey.
Geomagnetically induced currents in Uruguay: Sensitivity to modelling parameters
Caraballo, R.
2016-11-01
According to the traditional wisdom, geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) should occur rarely at mid-to-low latitudes, but in the last decades a growing number of reports have addressed their effects on high-voltage (HV) power grids at mid-to-low latitudes. The growing trend to interconnect national power grids to meet regional integration objectives, may lead to an increase in the size of the present energy transmission networks to form a sort of super-grid at continental scale. Such a broad and heterogeneous super-grid can be exposed to the effects of large GIC if appropriate mitigation actions are not taken into consideration. In the present study, we present GIC estimates for the Uruguayan HV power grid during severe magnetic storm conditions. The GIC intensities are strongly dependent on the rate of variation of the geomagnetic field, conductivity of the ground, power grid resistances and configuration. Calculated GIC are analysed as functions of these parameters. The results show a reasonable agreement with measured data in Brazil and Argentina, thus confirming the reliability of the model. The expansion of the grid leads to a strong increase in GIC intensities in almost all substations. The power grid response to changes in ground conductivity and resistances shows similar results in a minor extent. This leads us to consider GIC as a non-negligible phenomenon in South America. Consequently, GIC must be taken into account in mid-to-low latitude power grids as well.
Parameters Estimation of Geographically Weighted Ordinal Logistic Regression (GWOLR) Model
Zuhdi, Shaifudin; Retno Sari Saputro, Dewi; Widyaningsih, Purnami
2017-06-01
A regression model is the representation of relationship between independent variable and dependent variable. The dependent variable has categories used in the logistic regression model to calculate odds on. The logistic regression model for dependent variable has levels in the logistics regression model is ordinal. GWOLR model is an ordinal logistic regression model influenced the geographical location of the observation site. Parameters estimation in the model needed to determine the value of a population based on sample. The purpose of this research is to parameters estimation of GWOLR model using R software. Parameter estimation uses the data amount of dengue fever patients in Semarang City. Observation units used are 144 villages in Semarang City. The results of research get GWOLR model locally for each village and to know probability of number dengue fever patient categories.
Order parameter fluctuations in natural time and b-value variation before large earthquakes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
E. S. Skordas
2012-11-01
Full Text Available Self-similarity may stem from two origins: the process increments infinite variance and/or process memory. The b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter law comes from the first origin. In the frame of natural time analysis of earthquake data, a fall of the b-value observed before large earthquakes reflects an increase of the order parameter fluctuations upon approaching the critical point (mainshock. The increase of these fluctuations, however, is also influenced from the second origin of self-similarity, i.e., temporal correlations between earthquake magnitudes. This is supported by observations and simulations of an earthquake model.
Modeling and Parameter Estimation of a Small Wind Generation System
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Carlos A. Ramírez Gómez
2013-11-01
Full Text Available The modeling and parameter estimation of a small wind generation system is presented in this paper. The system consists of a wind turbine, a permanent magnet synchronous generator, a three phase rectifier, and a direct current load. In order to estimate the parameters wind speed data are registered in a weather station located in the Fraternidad Campus at ITM. Wind speed data were applied to a reference model programed with PSIM software. From that simulation, variables were registered to estimate the parameters. The wind generation system model together with the estimated parameters is an excellent representation of the detailed model, but the estimated model offers a higher flexibility than the programed model in PSIM software.
Parameter estimation of variable-parameter nonlinear Muskingum model using excel solver
Kang, Ling; Zhou, Liwei
2018-02-01
Abstract . The Muskingum model is an effective flood routing technology in hydrology and water resources Engineering. With the development of optimization technology, more and more variable-parameter Muskingum models were presented to improve effectiveness of the Muskingum model in recent decades. A variable-parameter nonlinear Muskingum model (NVPNLMM) was proposed in this paper. According to the results of two real and frequently-used case studies by various models, the NVPNLMM could obtain better values of evaluation criteria, which are used to describe the superiority of the estimated outflows and compare the accuracies of flood routing using various models, and the optimal estimated outflows by the NVPNLMM were closer to the observed outflows than the ones by other models.
Modeling Cyclic Variation of Intracranial Pressure
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Daley, M
2001-01-01
...) recording during mechanical ventilation are due to cyclic extravascular compressional modulation primarily of the cerebral venous bed, an established isovolumetric model of cerebrospinal fluid...
Do Lumped-Parameter Models Provide the Correct Geometrical Damping?
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Lars
2007-01-01
This paper concerns the formulation of lumped-parameter models for rigid footings on homogenous or stratified soil with focus on the horizontal sliding and rocking. Such models only contain a few degrees of freedom, which makes them ideal for inclusion in aero-elastic codes for wind turbines......-parameter models with respect to the prediction of the maximum response during excitation and the geometrical damping related to free vibrations of a footing....
Time variations of oxygen emission lines and solar wind dynamic parameters in low latitude region
Jamlongkul, P.; Wannawichian, S.; Mkrtichian, D.; Sawangwit, U.; A-thano, N.
2017-09-01
Aurora phenomenon is an effect of collision between precipitating particles with gyromotion along Earth’s magnetic field and Earth’s ionospheric atoms or molecules. The particles’ precipitation occurs normally around polar regions. However, some auroral particles can reach lower latitude regions when they are highly energetic. A clear emission from Earth’s aurora is mostly from atomic oxygen. Moreover, the sun’s activities can influence the occurrence of the aurora as well. This work studies time variations of oxygen emission lines and solar wind parameters, simultaneously. The emission’s spectral lines were observed by Medium Resolution Echelle Spectrograph (MRES) along with 2.4 meters diameter telescope at Thai National Observatory, Intanon Mountain, Chiang Mai, Thailand. Oxygen (OI) emission lines were calibrated by Dech-Fits spectra processing program and Dech95 2D image processing program. The correlations between oxygen emission lines and solar wind dynamics will be analyzed. This result could be an evidence of the aurora in low latitude region.
Incorporating model parameter uncertainty into inverse treatment planning
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lian Jun; Xing Lei
2004-01-01
Radiobiological treatment planning depends not only on the accuracy of the models describing the dose-response relation of different tumors and normal tissues but also on the accuracy of tissue specific radiobiological parameters in these models. Whereas the general formalism remains the same, different sets of model parameters lead to different solutions and thus critically determine the final plan. Here we describe an inverse planning formalism with inclusion of model parameter uncertainties. This is made possible by using a statistical analysis-based frameset developed by our group. In this formalism, the uncertainties of model parameters, such as the parameter a that describes tissue-specific effect in the equivalent uniform dose (EUD) model, are expressed by probability density function and are included in the dose optimization process. We found that the final solution strongly depends on distribution functions of the model parameters. Considering that currently available models for computing biological effects of radiation are simplistic, and the clinical data used to derive the models are sparse and of questionable quality, the proposed technique provides us with an effective tool to minimize the effect caused by the uncertainties in a statistical sense. With the incorporation of the uncertainties, the technique has potential for us to maximally utilize the available radiobiology knowledge for better IMRT treatment
Parameter sensitivity analysis of a 1-D cold region lake model for land-surface schemes
Guerrero, José-Luis; Pernica, Patricia; Wheater, Howard; Mackay, Murray; Spence, Chris
2017-12-01
Lakes might be sentinels of climate change, but the uncertainty in their main feedback to the atmosphere - heat-exchange fluxes - is often not considered within climate models. Additionally, these fluxes are seldom measured, hindering critical evaluation of model output. Analysis of the Canadian Small Lake Model (CSLM), a one-dimensional integral lake model, was performed to assess its ability to reproduce diurnal and seasonal variations in heat fluxes and the sensitivity of simulated fluxes to changes in model parameters, i.e., turbulent transport parameters and the light extinction coefficient (Kd). A C++ open-source software package, Problem Solving environment for Uncertainty Analysis and Design Exploration (PSUADE), was used to perform sensitivity analysis (SA) and identify the parameters that dominate model behavior. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) was applied to quantify the fluxes' uncertainty, comparing daily-averaged eddy-covariance observations to the output of CSLM. Seven qualitative and two quantitative SA methods were tested, and the posterior likelihoods of the modeled parameters, obtained from the GLUE analysis, were used to determine the dominant parameters and the uncertainty in the modeled fluxes. Despite the ubiquity of the equifinality issue - different parameter-value combinations yielding equivalent results - the answer to the question was unequivocal: Kd, a measure of how much light penetrates the lake, dominates sensible and latent heat fluxes, and the uncertainty in their estimates is strongly related to the accuracy with which Kd is determined. This is important since accurate and continuous measurements of Kd could reduce modeling uncertainty.
Castro Ferreira, Thiago; Krahmer, Emiel; Wubben, Sander
In this study, we introduce a nondeterministic method for referring expression generation. We describe two models that account for individual variation in the choice of referential form in automatically generated text: a Naive Bayes model and a Recurrent Neural Network. Both are evaluated using the
A method for model identification and parameter estimation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bambach, M; Heinkenschloss, M; Herty, M
2013-01-01
We propose and analyze a new method for the identification of a parameter-dependent model that best describes a given system. This problem arises, for example, in the mathematical modeling of material behavior where several competing constitutive equations are available to describe a given material. In this case, the models are differential equations that arise from the different constitutive equations, and the unknown parameters are coefficients in the constitutive equations. One has to determine the best-suited constitutive equations for a given material and application from experiments. We assume that the true model is one of the N possible parameter-dependent models. To identify the correct model and the corresponding parameters, we can perform experiments, where for each experiment we prescribe an input to the system and observe a part of the system state. Our approach consists of two stages. In the first stage, for each pair of models we determine the experiment, i.e. system input and observation, that best differentiates between the two models, and measure the distance between the two models. Then we conduct N(N − 1) or, depending on the approach taken, N(N − 1)/2 experiments and use the result of the experiments as well as the previously computed model distances to determine the true model. We provide sufficient conditions on the model distances and measurement errors which guarantee that our approach identifies the correct model. Given the model, we identify the corresponding model parameters in the second stage. The problem in the second stage is a standard parameter estimation problem and we use a method suitable for the given application. We illustrate our approach on three examples, including one where the models are elliptic partial differential equations with different parameterized right-hand sides and an example where we identify the constitutive equation in a problem from computational viscoplasticity. (paper)
Modelling asteroid brightness variations. I - Numerical methods
Karttunen, H.
1989-01-01
A method for generating lightcurves of asteroid models is presented. The effects of the shape of the asteroid and the scattering law of a surface element are distinctly separable, being described by chosen functions that can easily be changed. The shape is specified by means of two functions that yield the length of the radius vector and the normal vector of the surface at a given point. The general shape must be convex, but spherical concavities producing macroscopic shadowing can also be modeled.
A distributed approach for parameters estimation in System Biology models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mosca, E.; Merelli, I.; Alfieri, R.; Milanesi, L.
2009-01-01
Due to the lack of experimental measurements, biological variability and experimental errors, the value of many parameters of the systems biology mathematical models is yet unknown or uncertain. A possible computational solution is the parameter estimation, that is the identification of the parameter values that determine the best model fitting respect to experimental data. We have developed an environment to distribute each run of the parameter estimation algorithm on a different computational resource. The key feature of the implementation is a relational database that allows the user to swap the candidate solutions among the working nodes during the computations. The comparison of the distributed implementation with the parallel one showed that the presented approach enables a faster and better parameter estimation of systems biology models.
Target Selection Models with Preference Variation Between Offenders
Townsley, Michael; Birks, Daniel; Ruiter, Stijn; Bernasco, Wim; White, Gentry
2016-01-01
Objectives: This study explores preference variation in location choice strategies of residential burglars. Applying a model of offender target selection that is grounded in assertions of the routine activity approach, rational choice perspective, crime pattern and social disorganization theories,
Do Lumped-Parameter Models Provide the Correct Geometrical Damping?
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Lars
This paper concerns the formulation of lumped-parameter models for rigid footings on homogenous or stratified soil. Such models only contain a few degrees of freedom, which makes them ideal for inclusion in aero-elastic codes for wind turbines and other models applied to fast evaluation of struct......This paper concerns the formulation of lumped-parameter models for rigid footings on homogenous or stratified soil. Such models only contain a few degrees of freedom, which makes them ideal for inclusion in aero-elastic codes for wind turbines and other models applied to fast evaluation...... response during excitation and the geometrical damping related to free vibrations of a hexagonal footing. The optimal order of a lumped-parameter model is determined for each degree of freedom, i.e. horizontal and vertical translation as well as torsion and rocking. In particular, the necessity of coupling...
Parameter estimation for groundwater models under uncertain irrigation data
Demissie, Yonas; Valocchi, Albert J.; Cai, Ximing; Brozovic, Nicholas; Senay, Gabriel; Gebremichael, Mekonnen
2015-01-01
The success of modeling groundwater is strongly influenced by the accuracy of the model parameters that are used to characterize the subsurface system. However, the presence of uncertainty and possibly bias in groundwater model source/sink terms may lead to biased estimates of model parameters and model predictions when the standard regression-based inverse modeling techniques are used. This study first quantifies the levels of bias in groundwater model parameters and predictions due to the presence of errors in irrigation data. Then, a new inverse modeling technique called input uncertainty weighted least-squares (IUWLS) is presented for unbiased estimation of the parameters when pumping and other source/sink data are uncertain. The approach uses the concept of generalized least-squares method with the weight of the objective function depending on the level of pumping uncertainty and iteratively adjusted during the parameter optimization process. We have conducted both analytical and numerical experiments, using irrigation pumping data from the Republican River Basin in Nebraska, to evaluate the performance of ordinary least-squares (OLS) and IUWLS calibration methods under different levels of uncertainty of irrigation data and calibration conditions. The result from the OLS method shows the presence of statistically significant (p model predictions that persist despite calibrating the models to different calibration data and sample sizes. However, by directly accounting for the irrigation pumping uncertainties during the calibration procedures, the proposed IUWLS is able to minimize the bias effectively without adding significant computational burden to the calibration processes.
Variational Ridging in Sea Ice Models
Roberts, A.; Hunke, E. C.; Lipscomb, W. H.; Maslowski, W.; Kamal, S.
2017-12-01
This work presents the results of a new development to make basin-scale sea ice models aware of the shape, porosity and extent of individual ridges within the pack. We have derived an analytic solution for the Euler-Lagrange equation of individual ridges that accounts for non-conservative forces, and therefore the compressive strength of individual ridges. Because a region of the pack is simply a collection of paths of individual ridges, we are able to solve the Euler-Lagrange equation for a large-scale sea ice field also, and therefore the compressive strength of a region of the pack that explicitly accounts for the macro-porosity of ridged debris. We make a number of assumptions that have simplified the problem, such as treating sea ice as a granular material in ridges, and assuming that bending moments associated with ridging are perturbations around an isostatic state. Regardless of these simplifications, the ridge model is remarkably predictive of macro-porosity and ridge shape, and, because our equations are analytic, they do not require costly computations to solve the Euler-Lagrange equation of ridges on the large scale. The new ridge model is therefore applicable to large-scale sea ice models. We present results from this theoretical development, as well as plans to apply it to the Regional Arctic System Model and a community sea ice code. Most importantly, the new ridging model is particularly useful for pinpointing gaps in our observational record of sea ice ridges, and points to the need for improved measurements of the evolution of porosity of deformed ice in the Arctic and Antarctic. Such knowledge is not only useful for improving models, but also for improving estimates of sea ice volume derived from altimetric measurements of sea ice freeboard.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Miholca CONSTANTIN
2008-07-01
Full Text Available The paper presents a method of mathematical modelling of a solar converter using the results of full-scale testing. The advantages of analytical modelling method applied to photovoltaic systems are also presented; this is because the model parameters are directly measurable by data acquisition from the photovoltaic field consisting of photovoltaic cells type Z - (mono-crystalline photovoltaic. The model parameter also includes both the photovoltaic cell characteristics as a device (forming the photovoltaic field and the temperature influence on the photovoltaic field performance. The results of the photovoltaic model numerical simulation (PV to the major parameters conversion variation can also be used to design and assess the performance of low and medium - power photovoltaic systems operating in single regime (to supply the home appliances.
Transformations among CE–CVM model parameters for ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Unknown
parameters which exclusively represent interactions of the higher order systems. Such a procedure is presen- ted in detail in this communication. Furthermore, the details of transformations required to express the model parameters in one basis from those defined in another basis for the same system are also presented.
Transformations among CE–CVM model parameters for ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
... of parameters which exclusively represent interactions of the higher order systems. Such a procedure is presented in detail in this communication. Furthermore, the details of transformations required to express the model parameters in one basis from those defined in another basis for the same system are also presented.
Prior distributions for item parameters in IRT models
Matteucci, M.; S. Mignani, Prof.; Veldkamp, Bernard P.
2012-01-01
The focus of this article is on the choice of suitable prior distributions for item parameters within item response theory (IRT) models. In particular, the use of empirical prior distributions for item parameters is proposed. Firstly, regression trees are implemented in order to build informative
Chen, Z.; Chen, J.; Zheng, X.; Jiang, F.; Zhang, S.; Ju, W.; Yuan, W.; Mo, G.
2014-12-01
In this study, we explore the feasibility of optimizing ecosystem photosynthetic and respiratory parameters from the seasonal variation pattern of the net carbon flux. An optimization scheme is proposed to estimate two key parameters (Vcmax and Q10) by exploiting the seasonal variation in the net ecosystem carbon flux retrieved by an atmospheric inversion system. This scheme is implemented to estimate Vcmax and Q10 of the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) to improve its NEP simulation in the Boreal North America (BNA) region. Simultaneously, in-situ NEE observations at six eddy covariance sites are used to evaluate the NEE simulations. The results show that the performance of the optimized BEPS is superior to that of the BEPS with the default parameter values. These results have the implication on using atmospheric CO2 data for optimizing ecosystem parameters through atmospheric inversion or data assimilation techniques.
Retrospective forecast of ETAS model with daily parameters estimate
Falcone, Giuseppe; Murru, Maura; Console, Rodolfo; Marzocchi, Warner; Zhuang, Jiancang
2016-04-01
We present a retrospective ETAS (Epidemic Type of Aftershock Sequence) model based on the daily updating of free parameters during the background, the learning and the test phase of a seismic sequence. The idea was born after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The CSEP (Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability) Center in Japan provided an appropriate testing benchmark for the five 1-day submitted models. Of all the models, only one was able to successfully predict the number of events that really happened. This result was verified using both the real time and the revised catalogs. The main cause of the failure was in the underestimation of the forecasted events, due to model parameters maintained fixed during the test. Moreover, the absence in the learning catalog of an event similar to the magnitude of the mainshock (M9.0), which drastically changed the seismicity in the area, made the learning parameters not suitable to describe the real seismicity. As an example of this methodological development we show the evolution of the model parameters during the last two strong seismic sequences in Italy: the 2009 L'Aquila and the 2012 Reggio Emilia episodes. The achievement of the model with daily updated parameters is compared with that of same model where the parameters remain fixed during the test time.
Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kaylie Rasmuson; Kurt Rautenstrauch
2003-06-20
This analysis is one of nine technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. It documents input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCF). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in the biosphere Technical Work Plan (TWP, BSC 2003a). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development and therefore not available at the time this document is issued. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003b) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters. This analysis report, ANL-MGR-MD-000006, ''Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. This report defines and justifies values for twelve parameters required in the biosphere model. These parameters are related to use of contaminated groundwater to grow crops. The parameter values recommended in this report are used in the soil, plant, and carbon-14 submodels of the ERMYN.
Stochastic hyperelastic modeling considering dependency of material parameters
Caylak, Ismail; Penner, Eduard; Dridger, Alex; Mahnken, Rolf
2018-03-01
This paper investigates the uncertainty of a hyperelastic model by treating random material parameters as stochastic variables. For its stochastic discretization a polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) is used. An important aspect in our work is the consideration of stochastic dependencies in the stochastic modeling of Ogden's material model. To this end, artificial experiments are generated using the auto-regressive moving average process based on real experiments. The parameter identification for all data provides statistics of Ogden's material parameters, which are subsequently used for stochastic modeling. Stochastic dependencies are incorporated into the PCE using a Nataf transformation from dependent distributed random variables to independent standard normal distributed ones. The representative numerical example shows that our proposed method adequately takes into account the stochastic dependencies of Ogden's material parameters.
A compact cyclic plasticity model with parameter evolution
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Krenk, Steen; Tidemann, L.
2017-01-01
by the Armstrong–Frederick model, contained as a special case of the present model for a particular choice of the shape parameter. In contrast to previous work, where shaping the stress-strain loops is derived from multiple internal stress states, this effect is here represented by a single parameter......The paper presents a compact model for cyclic plasticity based on energy in terms of external and internal variables, and plastic yielding described by kinematic hardening and a flow potential with an additive term controlling the nonlinear cyclic hardening. The model is basically described by five...... parameters: external and internal stiffness, a yield stress and a limiting ultimate stress, and finally a parameter controlling the gradual development of plastic deformation. Calibration against numerous experimental results indicates that typically larger plastic strains develop than predicted...
Parameter Estimation for the Thurstone Case III Model.
Mackay, David B.; Chaiy, Seoil
1982-01-01
The ability of three estimation criteria to recover parameters of the Thurstone Case V and Case III models from comparative judgment data was investigated via Monte Carlo techniques. Significant differences in recovery are shown to exist. (Author/JKS)
Improved parameter estimation for hydrological models using weighted object functions
Stein, A.; Zaadnoordijk, W.J.
1999-01-01
This paper discusses the sensitivity of calibration of hydrological model parameters to different objective functions. Several functions are defined with weights depending upon the hydrological background. These are compared with an objective function based upon kriging. Calibration is applied to
Investigation of Spatial Variation of Sea States Offshore of Humboldt Bay CA Using a Hindcast Model.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Dallman, Ann Renee; Neary, Vincent Sinclair
2014-10-01
Spatial variability of sea states is an important consideration when performing wave resource assessments and wave resource characterization studies for wave energy converter (WEC) test sites and commercial WEC deployments. This report examines the spatial variation of sea states offshore of Humboldt Bay, CA, using the wave model SWAN . The effect of depth and shoaling on bulk wave parameters is well resolved using the model SWAN with a 200 m grid. At this site, the degree of spatial variation of these bulk wave parameters, with shoaling generally perpendicular to the depth contours, is found to depend on the season. The variation in wave height , for example, was higher in the summer due to the wind and wave sheltering from the protruding land on the coastline north of the model domain. Ho wever, the spatial variation within an area of a potential Tier 1 WEC test site at 45 m depth and 1 square nautical mile is almost negligible; at most about 0.1 m in both winter and summer. The six wave characterization parameters recommended by the IEC 6 2600 - 101 TS were compared at several points along a line perpendicular to shore from the WEC test site . As expected, these parameters varied based on depth , but showed very similar seasonal trends.
Seasonal variations in blood parameters of the Amazonian manatee, Trichechus inunguis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Elton P. Colares
2000-01-01
Full Text Available Seasonal variations in body weight, food consumption and blood glucose, total lipids, urea, total proteins, albumin and globulins of captive Amazonian manatees, Trichechus inunguis, were determined. Body weight changed significantly along the year, increasing from autumn to spring and decreasing in summer. The mean daily food intake of paragrass remained almost unchanged along the year. Paragrass administered to the manatees showed important variations in crude protein and lipid content along the year. No significant differences in blood parameters were registered between males and females in all seasons. Further, there were no significant differences in blood total proteins, albumin and globulins along the year. On the other hand, significant differences in the mean blood glucose, lipids and urea were registered. An increase in the blood glucose in the spring and summer was observed. Blood urea and lipids levels were positively related to paragrass protein and lipids content. These two correlations suggested that these blood parameters are good indicators of the animal nutritional status in the Amazonian manatee.Variações sasonais no peso do corpo, consumo de alimento e glicose, lípides totais, uréia, proteínas totais, albumina e globulinas do sangue de Peixes bois cativos, Trichechus inunguis, foram determinadas. Houve diferença significativa no peso dos animais ao longo do ano, sendo este aumento entre o outono e a primavera e decresce no verão. O consumo de capim colônia não variou ao longo do ano. A composição de proteína bruta e lipídeos totais de capim colônia dado aos animais mostrou importante variação ao longo do ano. Não foi verificado nenhuma variação nas concentrações dos parâmetros sagüíneos estudados entre os sexos em todas as estações. Também não foi verificado diferenças significativas nas concentrações sangüíneas de proteínas totais, albumina e globulinas ao longo do ano. Por outro lado
Partial sum approaches to mathematical parameters of some growth models
Korkmaz, Mehmet
2016-04-01
Growth model is fitted by evaluating the mathematical parameters, a, b and c. In this study, the method of partial sums were used. For finding the mathematical parameters, firstly three partial sums were used, secondly four partial sums were used, thirdly five partial sums were used and finally N partial sums were used. The purpose of increasing the partial decomposition is to produce a better phase model which gives a better expected value by minimizing error sum of squares in the interval used.
Parameter estimation in stochastic rainfall-runoff models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jonsdottir, Harpa; Madsen, Henrik; Palsson, Olafur Petur
2006-01-01
A parameter estimation method for stochastic rainfall-runoff models is presented. The model considered in the paper is a conceptual stochastic model, formulated in continuous-discrete state space form. The model is small and a fully automatic optimization is, therefore, possible for estimating all....... For a comparison the parameters are also estimated by an output error method, where the sum of squared simulation error is minimized. The former methodology is optimal for short-term prediction whereas the latter is optimal for simulations. Hence, depending on the purpose it is possible to select whether...... the parameter values are optimal for simulation or prediction. The data originates from Iceland and the model is designed for Icelandic conditions, including a snow routine for mountainous areas. The model demands only two input data series, precipitation and temperature and one output data series...
Luminescence model with quantum impact parameter for low energy ions
Cruz-Galindo, H S; Martínez-Davalos, A; Belmont-Moreno, E; Galindo, S
2002-01-01
We have modified an analytical model of induced light production by energetic ions interacting in scintillating materials. The original model is based on the distribution of energy deposited by secondary electrons produced along the ion's track. The range of scattered electrons, and thus the energy distribution, depends on a classical impact parameter between the electron and the ion's track. The only adjustable parameter of the model is the quenching density rho sub q. The modification here presented, consists in proposing a quantum impact parameter that leads to a better fit of the model to the experimental data at low incident ion energies. The light output response of CsI(Tl) detectors to low energy ions (<3 MeV/A) is fitted with the modified model and comparison is made to the original model.
Deloule, Francoise
A machine shop design based on the Merise method is derived. The parameters of the physical system are identified and evaluated. Modeling and simulation are used as complementary methods to solve the problems created by the simultaneous variation of a large number of parameters. The specifications of machines and other elements implementing the flexible shop are obtained. A structured process to optimize the utilization of modeling and simulation is presented. It is shown that for given criteria the solution is close to the optimum.
Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
K. Rasmuson; K. Rautenstrauch
2004-01-01
This analysis is one of 10 technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) (i.e., the biosphere model). It documents development of agricultural and environmental input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters
Combined Estimation of Hydrogeologic Conceptual Model and Parameter Uncertainty
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Meyer, Philip D.; Ye, Ming; Neuman, Shlomo P.; Cantrell, Kirk J.
2004-03-01
The objective of the research described in this report is the development and application of a methodology for comprehensively assessing the hydrogeologic uncertainties involved in dose assessment, including uncertainties associated with conceptual models, parameters, and scenarios. This report describes and applies a statistical method to quantitatively estimate the combined uncertainty in model predictions arising from conceptual model and parameter uncertainties. The method relies on model averaging to combine the predictions of a set of alternative models. Implementation is driven by the available data. When there is minimal site-specific data the method can be carried out with prior parameter estimates based on generic data and subjective prior model probabilities. For sites with observations of system behavior (and optionally data characterizing model parameters), the method uses model calibration to update the prior parameter estimates and model probabilities based on the correspondence between model predictions and site observations. The set of model alternatives can contain both simplified and complex models, with the requirement that all models be based on the same set of data. The method was applied to the geostatistical modeling of air permeability at a fractured rock site. Seven alternative variogram models of log air permeability were considered to represent data from single-hole pneumatic injection tests in six boreholes at the site. Unbiased maximum likelihood estimates of variogram and drift parameters were obtained for each model. Standard information criteria provided an ambiguous ranking of the models, which would not justify selecting one of them and discarding all others as is commonly done in practice. Instead, some of the models were eliminated based on their negligibly small updated probabilities and the rest were used to project the measured log permeabilities by kriging onto a rock volume containing the six boreholes. These four
New trends in parameter identification for mathematical models
Leitão, Antonio; Zubelli, Jorge
2018-01-01
The Proceedings volume contains 16 contributions to the IMPA conference “New Trends in Parameter Identification for Mathematical Models”, Rio de Janeiro, Oct 30 – Nov 3, 2017, integrating the “Chemnitz Symposium on Inverse Problems on Tour”. This conference is part of the “Thematic Program on Parameter Identification in Mathematical Models” organized at IMPA in October and November 2017. One goal is to foster the scientific collaboration between mathematicians and engineers from the Brazialian, European and Asian communities. Main topics are iterative and variational regularization methods in Hilbert and Banach spaces for the stable approximate solution of ill-posed inverse problems, novel methods for parameter identification in partial differential equations, problems of tomography , solution of coupled conduction-radiation problems at high temperatures, and the statistical solution of inverse problems with applications in physics.
SPOTting Model Parameters Using a Ready-Made Python Package.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tobias Houska
Full Text Available The choice for specific parameter estimation methods is often more dependent on its availability than its performance. We developed SPOTPY (Statistical Parameter Optimization Tool, an open source python package containing a comprehensive set of methods typically used to calibrate, analyze and optimize parameters for a wide range of ecological models. SPOTPY currently contains eight widely used algorithms, 11 objective functions, and can sample from eight parameter distributions. SPOTPY has a model-independent structure and can be run in parallel from the workstation to large computation clusters using the Message Passing Interface (MPI. We tested SPOTPY in five different case studies to parameterize the Rosenbrock, Griewank and Ackley functions, a one-dimensional physically based soil moisture routine, where we searched for parameters of the van Genuchten-Mualem function and a calibration of a biogeochemistry model with different objective functions. The case studies reveal that the implemented SPOTPY methods can be used for any model with just a minimal amount of code for maximal power of parameter optimization. They further show the benefit of having one package at hand that includes number of well performing parameter search methods, since not every case study can be solved sufficiently with every algorithm or every objective function.
Simultaneous inference for model averaging of derived parameters
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jensen, Signe Marie; Ritz, Christian
2015-01-01
Model averaging is a useful approach for capturing uncertainty due to model selection. Currently, this uncertainty is often quantified by means of approximations that do not easily extend to simultaneous inference. Moreover, in practice there is a need for both model averaging and simultaneous...... inference for derived parameters calculated in an after-fitting step. We propose a method for obtaining asymptotically correct standard errors for one or several model-averaged estimates of derived parameters and for obtaining simultaneous confidence intervals that asymptotically control the family...
Updating parameters of the chicken processing line model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kurowicka, Dorota; Nauta, Maarten; Jozwiak, Katarzyna
2010-01-01
A mathematical model of chicken processing that quantitatively describes the transmission of Campylobacter on chicken carcasses from slaughter to chicken meat product has been developed in Nauta et al. (2005). This model was quantified with expert judgment. Recent availability of data allows...... updating parameters of the model to better describe processes observed in slaughterhouses. We propose Bayesian updating as a suitable technique to update expert judgment with microbiological data. Berrang and Dickens’s data are used to demonstrate performance of this method in updating parameters...... of the chicken processing line model....
Lumped-Parameter Models for Windturbine Footings on Layered Ground
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Lars
The design of modern wind turbines is typically based on lifetime analyses using aeroelastic codes. In this regard, the impedance of the foundations must be described accurately without increasing the overall size of the computationalmodel significantly. This may be obtained by the fitting...... of a lumped-parameter model to the results of a rigorous model or experimental results. In this paper, guidelines are given for the formulation of such lumped-parameter models and examples are given in which the models are utilised for the analysis of a wind turbine supported by a surface footing on a layered...
This research was performed to determine variation of protein molecular weight distribution (MWD) parameters using size exclusion HPLC and their associations with quality characteristics and free asparagine concentration (FAC) using eleven hard red spring (HRS) wheat genotypes grown at three locatio...
Michalik, Thomas; Multsch, Sebastian; Frede, Hans-Georg; Breuer, Lutz
2016-04-01
Water for agriculture is strongly limited in arid and semi-arid regions and often of low quality in terms of salinity. The application of saline waters for irrigation increases the salt load in the rooting zone and has to be managed by leaching to maintain a healthy soil, i.e. to wash out salts by additional irrigation. Dynamic simulation models are helpful tools to calculate the root zone water fluxes and soil salinity content in order to investigate best management practices. However, there is little information on structural and parameter uncertainty for simulations regarding the water and salt balance of saline irrigation. Hence, we established a multi-model system with four different models (AquaCrop, RZWQM, SWAP, Hydrus1D/UNSATCHEM) to analyze the structural and parameter uncertainty by using the Global Likelihood and Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method. Hydrus1D/UNSATCHEM and SWAP were set up with multiple sets of different implemented functions (e.g. matric and osmotic stress for root water uptake) which results in a broad range of different model structures. The simulations were evaluated against soil water and salinity content observations. The posterior distribution of the GLUE analysis gives behavioral parameters sets and reveals uncertainty intervals for parameter uncertainty. Throughout all of the model sets, most parameters accounting for the soil water balance show a low uncertainty, only one or two out of five to six parameters in each model set displays a high uncertainty (e.g. pore-size distribution index in SWAP and Hydrus1D/UNSATCHEM). The differences between the models and model setups reveal the structural uncertainty. The highest structural uncertainty is observed for deep percolation fluxes between the model sets of Hydrus1D/UNSATCHEM (~200 mm) and RZWQM (~500 mm) that are more than twice as high for the latter. The model sets show a high variation in uncertainty intervals for deep percolation as well, with an interquartile range (IQR) of
Development of new model for high explosives detonation parameters calculation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jeremić Radun
2012-01-01
Full Text Available The simple semi-empirical model for calculation of detonation pressure and velocity for CHNO explosives has been developed, which is based on experimental values of detonation parameters. Model uses Avakyan’s method for determination of detonation products' chemical composition, and is applicable in wide range of densities. Compared with the well-known Kamlet's method and numerical model of detonation based on BKW EOS, the calculated values from proposed model have significantly better accuracy.
Utilising temperature differences as constraints for estimating parameters in a simple climate model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bodman, Roger W; Karoly, David J; Enting, Ian G
2010-01-01
Simple climate models can be used to estimate the global temperature response to increasing greenhouse gases. Changes in the energy balance of the global climate system are represented by equations that necessitate the use of uncertain parameters. The values of these parameters can be estimated from historical observations, model testing, and tuning to more complex models. Efforts have been made at estimating the possible ranges for these parameters. This study continues this process, but demonstrates two new constraints. Previous studies have shown that land-ocean temperature differences are only weakly correlated with global mean temperature for natural internal climate variations. Hence, these temperature differences provide additional information that can be used to help constrain model parameters. In addition, an ocean heat content ratio can also provide a further constraint. A pulse response technique was used to identify relative parameter sensitivity which confirmed the importance of climate sensitivity and ocean vertical diffusivity, but the land-ocean warming ratio and the land-ocean heat exchange coefficient were also found to be important. Experiments demonstrate the utility of the land-ocean temperature difference and ocean heat content ratio for setting parameter values. This work is based on investigations with MAGICC (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change) as the simple climate model.
Variation of level density parameter with angular momentum in 119Sb
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Aggarwal, Mamta; Kailas, S.
2015-01-01
Nuclear level density (NLD), a basic ingredient of Statistical Model has been a subject of interest for various decades as it plays an important role in the understanding of a wide variety of Nuclear reactions. There have been various efforts towards the precise determination of NLD and study its dependence on excitation energy and angular momentum as it is crucial in the determination of cross-sections. Here we report our results of theoretical calculations in a microscopic framework to understand the experimental results on inverse level density parameter (k) extracted for different angular momentum regions for 119 Sb corresponding to different γ-ray multiplicities by comparing the experimental neutron energy spectra with statistical model predictions where an increase in the level density with the increasing angular momentum is predicted. NLD and neutron emission spectra dependence on temperature and spin has been studied in our earlier works where the influence of structural transitions due to angular momentum and temperature on level density of states and neutron emission probability was shown
Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
M. Wasiolek
2004-01-01
This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment for the license application (TSPA-LA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA-LA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) (TWP). This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA). This report is one of the five reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model and the mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed description of the model input parameters. The output of this report is used as direct input in the ''Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' and in the ''Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios, respectively. The purpose of this analysis was to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or in volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573])
Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
M. Wasiolek
2004-09-10
This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment for the license application (TSPA-LA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA-LA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) (TWP). This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA). This report is one of the five reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model and the mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed description of the model input parameters. The output of this report is used as direct input in the ''Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' and in the ''Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios, respectively. The purpose of this analysis was to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or in volcanic ash). The analysis
Modelling basin-wide variations in Amazon forest photosynthesis
Mercado, Lina; Lloyd, Jon; Domingues, Tomas; Fyllas, Nikolaos; Patino, Sandra; Dolman, Han; Sitch, Stephen
2010-05-01
Given the importance of Amazon rainforest in the global carbon and hydrological cycles, there is a need to use parameterized and validated ecosystem gas exchange and vegetation models for this region in order to adequately simulate present and future carbon and water balances. Recent research has found major differences in above-ground net primary productivity (ANPP), above ground biomass and tree dynamics across Amazonia. West Amazonia is more dynamic, with younger trees, higher stem growth rates and lower biomass than central and eastern Amazon (Baker et al. 2004; Malhi et al. 2004; Phillips et al. 2004). A factor of three variation in above-ground net primary productivity has been estimated across Amazonia by Malhi et al. (2004). Different hypotheses have been proposed to explain the observed spatial variability in ANPP (Malhi et al. 2004). First, due to the proximity to the Andes, sites from western Amazonia tend to have richer soils than central and eastern Amazon and therefore soil fertility could possibly be highly related to the high wood productivity found in western sites. Second, if GPP does not vary across the Amazon basin then different patterns of carbon allocation to respiration could also explain the observed ANPP gradient. However since plant growth depends on the interaction between photosynthesis, transport of assimilates, plant respiration, water relations and mineral nutrition, variations in plant gross photosynthesis (GPP) could also explain the observed variations in ANPP. In this study we investigate whether Amazon GPP can explain variations of observed ANPP. We use a sun and shade canopy gas exchange model that has been calibrated and evaluated at five rainforest sites (Mercado et al. 2009) to simulate gross primary productivity of 50 sites across the Amazon basin during the period 1980-2001. Such simulation differs from the ones performed with global vegetation models (Cox et al. 1998; Sitch et al. 2003) where i) single plant functional
Parameter uncertainty analysis of a biokinetic model of caesium
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li, W.B.; Oeh, U.; Klein, W.; Blanchardon, E.; Puncher, M.; Leggett, R.W.; Breustedt, B.; Nosske, D.; Lopez, M.A.
2015-01-01
Parameter uncertainties for the biokinetic model of caesium (Cs) developed by Leggett et al. were inventoried and evaluated. The methods of parameter uncertainty analysis were used to assess the uncertainties of model predictions with the assumptions of model parameter uncertainties and distributions. Furthermore, the importance of individual model parameters was assessed by means of sensitivity analysis. The calculated uncertainties of model predictions were compared with human data of Cs measured in blood and in the whole body. It was found that propagating the derived uncertainties in model parameter values reproduced the range of bioassay data observed in human subjects at different times after intake. The maximum ranges, expressed as uncertainty factors (UFs) (defined as a square root of ratio between 97.5. and 2.5. percentiles) of blood clearance, whole-body retention and urinary excretion of Cs predicted at earlier time after intake were, respectively: 1.5, 1.0 and 2.5 at the first day; 1.8, 1.1 and 2.4 at Day 10 and 1.8, 2.0 and 1.8 at Day 100; for the late times (1000 d) after intake, the UFs were increased to 43, 24 and 31, respectively. The model parameters of transfer rates between kidneys and blood, muscle and blood and the rate of transfer from kidneys to urinary bladder content are most influential to the blood clearance and to the whole-body retention of Cs. For the urinary excretion, the parameters of transfer rates from urinary bladder content to urine and from kidneys to urinary bladder content impact mostly. The implication and effect on the estimated equivalent and effective doses of the larger uncertainty of 43 in whole-body retention in the later time, say, after Day 500 will be explored in a successive work in the framework of EURADOS. (authors)
Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
K. Rautenstrauch
2004-01-01
This analysis is one of 10 reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception
Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
K. Rautenstrauch
2004-09-10
This analysis is one of 10 reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception.
Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wasiolek, M. A.
2003-01-01
This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2003 [163602]). Some documents in Figure 1-1 may be under development and not available when this report is issued. This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA), but access to the listed documents is not required to understand the contents of this report. This report is one of the reports that develops input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes the conceptual model, the mathematical model, and the input parameters. The purpose of this analysis is to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2003 [163602]). This analysis develops values of parameters associated with many features, events, and processes (FEPs) applicable to the reference biosphere (DTN: M00303SEPFEPS2.000 [162452]), which are addressed in the biosphere model (BSC 2003 [160699]). The treatment of these FEPs is described in BSC (2003 [160699], Section 6.2). Parameter values
Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
M. A. Wasiolek
2003-06-27
This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2003 [163602]). Some documents in Figure 1-1 may be under development and not available when this report is issued. This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA), but access to the listed documents is not required to understand the contents of this report. This report is one of the reports that develops input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes the conceptual model, the mathematical model, and the input parameters. The purpose of this analysis is to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2003 [163602]). This analysis develops values of parameters associated with many features, events, and processes (FEPs) applicable to the reference biosphere (DTN: M00303SEPFEPS2.000 [162452]), which are addressed in the biosphere model (BSC 2003 [160699]). The treatment of these FEPs is described in BSC (2003 [160699
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Namysłowska-Wilczyńska Barbara
2016-09-01
Full Text Available This paper presents selected results of research connected with the development of a (3D geostatistical hydrogeochemical model of the Kłodzko Drainage Basin, dedicated to the spatial variation in the different quality parameters of underground water in the water intake area (SW part of Poland. The research covers the period 2011-2012. Spatial analyses of the variation in various quality parameters, i.e., contents of: iron, manganese, ammonium ion, nitrate ion, phosphate ion, total organic carbon, pH redox potential and temperature, were carried out on the basis of the chemical determinations of the quality parameters of underground water samples taken from the wells in the water intake area. Spatial variation in the parameters was analyzed on the basis of data obtained (November 2011 from tests of water taken from 14 existing wells with a depth ranging from 9.5 to 38.0 m b.g.l. The latest data (January 2012 were obtained (gained from 3 new piezometers, made in other locations in the relevant area. A depth of these piezometers amounts to 9-10 m.
Winkler's single-parameter subgrade model from the perspective of ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
... tensor are taken into consideration, whereas the shear stresses are intentionally dropped with the purpose of providing a useful perspective, with which Winkler's model and its associated coefficient of subgrade reaction can be viewed. The formulation takes into account the variation of the elasticity modulus with depth.
Sensor placement for calibration of spatially varying model parameters
Nath, Paromita; Hu, Zhen; Mahadevan, Sankaran
2017-08-01
This paper presents a sensor placement optimization framework for the calibration of spatially varying model parameters. To account for the randomness of the calibration parameters over space and across specimens, the spatially varying parameter is represented as a random field. Based on this representation, Bayesian calibration of spatially varying parameter is investigated. To reduce the required computational effort during Bayesian calibration, the original computer simulation model is substituted with Kriging surrogate models based on the singular value decomposition (SVD) of the model response and the Karhunen-Loeve expansion (KLE) of the spatially varying parameters. A sensor placement optimization problem is then formulated based on the Bayesian calibration to maximize the expected information gain measured by the expected Kullback-Leibler (K-L) divergence. The optimization problem needs to evaluate the expected K-L divergence repeatedly which requires repeated calibration of the spatially varying parameter, and this significantly increases the computational effort of solving the optimization problem. To overcome this challenge, an approximation for the posterior distribution is employed within the optimization problem to facilitate the identification of the optimal sensor locations using the simulated annealing algorithm. A heat transfer problem with spatially varying thermal conductivity is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Procedures for parameter estimates of computational models for localized failure
Iacono, C.
2007-01-01
In the last years, many computational models have been developed for tensile fracture in concrete. However, their reliability is related to the correct estimate of the model parameters, not all directly measurable during laboratory tests. Hence, the development of inverse procedures is needed, that
Geometry parameters for musculoskeletal modelling of the shoulder system
Van der Helm, F C; Veeger, DirkJan (H. E. J.); Pronk, G M; Van der Woude, L H; Rozendal, R H
A dynamical finite-element model of the shoulder mechanism consisting of thorax, clavicula, scapula and humerus is outlined. The parameters needed for the model are obtained in a cadaver experiment consisting of both shoulders of seven cadavers. In this paper, in particular, the derivation of
A software for parameter estimation in dynamic models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Yuceer
2008-12-01
Full Text Available A common problem in dynamic systems is to determine parameters in an equation used to represent experimental data. The goal is to determine the values of model parameters that provide the best fit to measured data, generally based on some type of least squares or maximum likelihood criterion. In the most general case, this requires the solution of a nonlinear and frequently non-convex optimization problem. Some of the available software lack in generality, while others do not provide ease of use. A user-interactive parameter estimation software was needed for identifying kinetic parameters. In this work we developed an integration based optimization approach to provide a solution to such problems. For easy implementation of the technique, a parameter estimation software (PARES has been developed in MATLAB environment. When tested with extensive example problems from literature, the suggested approach is proven to provide good agreement between predicted and observed data within relatively less computing time and iterations.
Improving the realism of hydrologic model through multivariate parameter estimation
Rakovec, Oldrich; Kumar, Rohini; Attinger, Sabine; Samaniego, Luis
2017-04-01
Increased availability and quality of near real-time observations should improve understanding of predictive skills of hydrological models. Recent studies have shown the limited capability of river discharge data alone to adequately constrain different components of distributed model parameterizations. In this study, the GRACE satellite-based total water storage (TWS) anomaly is used to complement the discharge data with an aim to improve the fidelity of mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM) through multivariate parameter estimation. The study is conducted in 83 European basins covering a wide range of hydro-climatic regimes. The model parameterization complemented with the TWS anomalies leads to statistically significant improvements in (1) discharge simulations during low-flow period, and (2) evapotranspiration estimates which are evaluated against independent (FLUXNET) data. Overall, there is no significant deterioration in model performance for the discharge simulations when complemented by information from the TWS anomalies. However, considerable changes in the partitioning of precipitation into runoff components are noticed by in-/exclusion of TWS during the parameter estimation. A cross-validation test carried out to assess the transferability and robustness of the calibrated parameters to other locations further confirms the benefit of complementary TWS data. In particular, the evapotranspiration estimates show more robust performance when TWS data are incorporated during the parameter estimation, in comparison with the benchmark model constrained against discharge only. This study highlights the value for incorporating multiple data sources during parameter estimation to improve the overall realism of hydrologic model and its applications over large domains. Rakovec, O., Kumar, R., Attinger, S. and Samaniego, L. (2016): Improving the realism of hydrologic model functioning through multivariate parameter estimation. Water Resour. Res., 52, http://dx.doi.org/10
Ground level enhancement (GLE) energy spectrum parameters model
Qin, G.; Wu, S.
2017-12-01
We study the ground level enhancement (GLE) events in solar cycle 23 with the four energy spectra parameters, the normalization parameter C, low-energy power-law slope γ 1, high-energy power-law slope γ 2, and break energy E0, obtained by Mewaldt et al. 2012 who fit the observations to the double power-law equation. we divide the GLEs into two groups, one with strong acceleration by interplanetary (IP) shocks and another one without strong acceleration according to the condition of solar eruptions. We next fit the four parameters with solar event conditions to get models of the parameters for the two groups of GLEs separately. So that we would establish a model of energy spectrum for GLEs for the future space weather prediction.
Determination of appropriate models and parameters for premixing calculations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Park, Ik-Kyu; Kim, Jong-Hwan; Min, Beong-Tae; Hong, Seong-Wan
2008-03-15
The purpose of the present work is to use experiments that have been performed at Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe during about the last ten years for determining the most appropriate models and parameters for premixing calculations. The results of a QUEOS experiment are used to fix the parameters concerning heat transfer. The QUEOS experiments are especially suited for this purpose as they have been performed with small hot solid spheres. Therefore the area of heat exchange is known. With the heat transfer parameters fixed in this way, a PREMIX experiment is recalculated. These experiments have been performed with molten alumina (Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}) as a simulant of corium. Its initial temperature is 2600 K. With these experiments the models and parameters for jet and drop break-up are tested.
Annual variations of dayside F2 layer parameters in the region of the geomagnetic equator
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Leshchinskaya, T.Yu.; Mikhajlov, A.V.
1985-01-01
Annual variations of height hm, electron concentration nsub(e)(h) of the F2 equatorial layer in American and Indian sections are considered. Variations of atomic oxygen the concentration of which in the period of December solstice is higher than that in the period of June solstice at all the phases of the cycle of solar activity are shown to be the main reason for excess of January hsub(m) and nsub(e)sup(m) values over the July ones (irespective of the hemisphere). Variations of the profile width reflect season fluctuations of atmospheric temperature
Soil-related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
A. J. Smith
2003-01-01
This analysis is one of the technical reports containing documentation of the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN biosphere model is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2003 [163602]). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development at the time this report is issued and therefore not available. This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this report. This report, ''Soil Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five analysis reports that develop input parameters for use in the ERMYN model. This report is the source documentation for the six biosphere parameters identified in Table 1-1. ''The Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. The purpose of this analysis was to develop the biosphere model parameters needed to evaluate doses from pathways associated with the accumulation and depletion of radionuclides in the soil. These parameters support the calculation of radionuclide concentrations in soil from on-going irrigation and ash
Parameter Estimation for Single Diode Models of Photovoltaic Modules
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hansen, Clifford [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Photovoltaic and Distributed Systems Integration Dept.
2015-03-01
Many popular models for photovoltaic system performance employ a single diode model to compute the I - V curve for a module or string of modules at given irradiance and temperature conditions. A single diode model requires a number of parameters to be estimated from measured I - V curves. Many available parameter estimation methods use only short circuit, o pen circuit and maximum power points for a single I - V curve at standard test conditions together with temperature coefficients determined separately for individual cells. In contrast, module testing frequently records I - V curves over a wide range of irradi ance and temperature conditions which, when available , should also be used to parameterize the performance model. We present a parameter estimation method that makes use of a fu ll range of available I - V curves. We verify the accuracy of the method by recov ering known parameter values from simulated I - V curves . We validate the method by estimating model parameters for a module using outdoor test data and predicting the outdoor performance of the module.
Parameters and variables appearing in repository design models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Curtis, R.H.; Wart, R.J.
1983-12-01
This report defines the parameters and variables appearing in repository design models and presents typical values and ranges of values of each. Areas covered by this report include thermal, geomechanical, and coupled stress and flow analyses in rock. Particular emphasis is given to conductivity, radiation, and convection parameters for thermal analysis and elastic constants, failure criteria, creep laws, and joint properties for geomechanical analysis. The data in this report were compiled to help guide the selection of values of parameters and variables to be used in code benchmarking. 102 references, 33 figures, 51 tables
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Prasad, Yogesh; Prasad, Ganesh; Negi, M.S.; Ramola, R.C.; Choubey, V.M.
2006-01-01
Radon is being measured continuously in spring water at Badshahi Thaul Campus, Tehri Garhwal in Himalayan region by using radon emanometer since December 2002. An effort was made to correlate the variance of radon concentration in spring water with meteorological parameters and seismic events in study area. The positive correlation (coefficient = 0.79, 0.53, 0.60 and 0.70) was observed between measured radon concentration and minimum and maximum temperature, relative humidity and water discharge rate from the spring, respectively. However, no correlation was recorded between radon concentration and rain fall in the study area. Sudden increase in radon concentration in spring water were observed before the earthquakes occurred on 24 January 2003 of magnitude 3.4 on Richter scale having epicenter near Uttarkashi in Garhwal Himalaya and on 31 January 2003 of magnitude 3.1 on Richter scale having epicenter almost in same area. Similar changes in radon concentration were recorded before the earthquakes occurred on 4 April 2003 with magnitude 4.0 having epicenter near Almora in Kumaon Himalaya and on 26 May 2003 having magnitude 3.5 in Chamoli region of Garhwal Himalaya. Regular radon anomaly was recorded with micro seismic events from 5th August to 4th September 2003, which is discussed in detail. The impact of non geophysical and geophysical events on radon concentration in spring water is discussed in details. This type of study will help us to develop earthquake alarm model from radon in near future. (author)
Control of the SCOLE configuration using distributed parameter models
Hsiao, Min-Hung; Huang, Jen-Kuang
1994-01-01
A continuum model for the SCOLE configuration has been derived using transfer matrices. Controller designs for distributed parameter systems have been analyzed. Pole-assignment controller design is considered easy to implement but stability is not guaranteed. An explicit transfer function of dynamic controllers has been obtained and no model reduction is required before the controller is realized. One specific LQG controller for continuum models had been derived, but other optimal controllers for more general performances need to be studied.
Zhao, Qile; Guo, Jing; Hu, Zhigang; Shi, Chuang; Liu, Jingnan; Cai, Hua; Liu, Xianglin
2011-05-01
The GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment) monthly gravity models have been independently produced and published by several research institutions, such as Center for Space Research (CSR), GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ), Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales (CNES) and Delft Institute of Earth Observation and Space Systems (DEOS). According to their processing standards, above institutions use the traditional variational approach except that the DEOS exploits the acceleration approach. The background force models employed are rather similar. The produced gravity field models generally agree with one another in the spatial pattern. However, there are some discrepancies in the gravity signal amplitude between solutions produced by different institutions. In particular, 10%-30% signal amplitude differences in some river basins can be observed. In this paper, we implemented a variant of the traditional variational approach and computed two sets of monthly gravity field solutions using the data from January 2005 to December 2006. The input data are K-band range-rates (KBRR) and kinematic orbits of GRACE satellites. The main difference in the production of our two types of models is how to deal with nuisance parameters. This type of parameters is necessary to absorb low-frequency errors in the data, which are mainly the aliasing and instrument errors. One way is to remove the nuisance parameters before estimating the geopotential coefficients, called NPARB approach in the paper. The other way is to estimate the nuisance parameters and geopotential coefficients simultaneously, called NPESS approach. These two types of solutions mainly differ in geopotential coefficients from degree 2 to 5. This can be explained by the fact that the nuisance parameters and the gravity field coefficients are highly correlated, particularly at low degrees. We compare these solutions with the official and published ones by means of spectral analysis. It is
SPOTting model parameters using a ready-made Python package
Houska, Tobias; Kraft, Philipp; Breuer, Lutz
2015-04-01
The selection and parameterization of reliable process descriptions in ecological modelling is driven by several uncertainties. The procedure is highly dependent on various criteria, like the used algorithm, the likelihood function selected and the definition of the prior parameter distributions. A wide variety of tools have been developed in the past decades to optimize parameters. Some of the tools are closed source. Due to this, the choice for a specific parameter estimation method is sometimes more dependent on its availability than the performance. A toolbox with a large set of methods can support users in deciding about the most suitable method. Further, it enables to test and compare different methods. We developed the SPOT (Statistical Parameter Optimization Tool), an open source python package containing a comprehensive set of modules, to analyze and optimize parameters of (environmental) models. SPOT comes along with a selected set of algorithms for parameter optimization and uncertainty analyses (Monte Carlo, MC; Latin Hypercube Sampling, LHS; Maximum Likelihood, MLE; Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC; Scuffled Complex Evolution, SCE-UA; Differential Evolution Markov Chain, DE-MCZ), together with several likelihood functions (Bias, (log-) Nash-Sutcliff model efficiency, Correlation Coefficient, Coefficient of Determination, Covariance, (Decomposed-, Relative-, Root-) Mean Squared Error, Mean Absolute Error, Agreement Index) and prior distributions (Binomial, Chi-Square, Dirichlet, Exponential, Laplace, (log-, multivariate-) Normal, Pareto, Poisson, Cauchy, Uniform, Weibull) to sample from. The model-independent structure makes it suitable to analyze a wide range of applications. We apply all algorithms of the SPOT package in three different case studies. Firstly, we investigate the response of the Rosenbrock function, where the MLE algorithm shows its strengths. Secondly, we study the Griewank function, which has a challenging response surface for
Modelling of intermittent microwave convective drying: parameter sensitivity
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhang Zhijun
2017-06-01
Full Text Available The reliability of the predictions of a mathematical model is a prerequisite to its utilization. A multiphase porous media model of intermittent microwave convective drying is developed based on the literature. The model considers the liquid water, gas and solid matrix inside of food. The model is simulated by COMSOL software. Its sensitivity parameter is analysed by changing the parameter values by ±20%, with the exception of several parameters. The sensitivity analysis of the process of the microwave power level shows that each parameter: ambient temperature, effective gas diffusivity, and evaporation rate constant, has significant effects on the process. However, the surface mass, heat transfer coefficient, relative and intrinsic permeability of the gas, and capillary diffusivity of water do not have a considerable effect. The evaporation rate constant has minimal parameter sensitivity with a ±20% value change, until it is changed 10-fold. In all results, the temperature and vapour pressure curves show the same trends as the moisture content curve. However, the water saturation at the medium surface and in the centre show different results. Vapour transfer is the major mass transfer phenomenon that affects the drying process.
Modelling of intermittent microwave convective drying: parameter sensitivity
Zhang, Zhijun; Qin, Wenchao; Shi, Bin; Gao, Jingxin; Zhang, Shiwei
2017-06-01
The reliability of the predictions of a mathematical model is a prerequisite to its utilization. A multiphase porous media model of intermittent microwave convective drying is developed based on the literature. The model considers the liquid water, gas and solid matrix inside of food. The model is simulated by COMSOL software. Its sensitivity parameter is analysed by changing the parameter values by ±20%, with the exception of several parameters. The sensitivity analysis of the process of the microwave power level shows that each parameter: ambient temperature, effective gas diffusivity, and evaporation rate constant, has significant effects on the process. However, the surface mass, heat transfer coefficient, relative and intrinsic permeability of the gas, and capillary diffusivity of water do not have a considerable effect. The evaporation rate constant has minimal parameter sensitivity with a ±20% value change, until it is changed 10-fold. In all results, the temperature and vapour pressure curves show the same trends as the moisture content curve. However, the water saturation at the medium surface and in the centre show different results. Vapour transfer is the major mass transfer phenomenon that affects the drying process.
Synchronous Generator Model Parameter Estimation Based on Noisy Dynamic Waveforms
Berhausen, Sebastian; Paszek, Stefan
2016-01-01
In recent years, there have occurred system failures in many power systems all over the world. They have resulted in a lack of power supply to a large number of recipients. To minimize the risk of occurrence of power failures, it is necessary to perform multivariate investigations, including simulations, of power system operating conditions. To conduct reliable simulations, the current base of parameters of the models of generating units, containing the models of synchronous generators, is necessary. In the paper, there is presented a method for parameter estimation of a synchronous generator nonlinear model based on the analysis of selected transient waveforms caused by introducing a disturbance (in the form of a pseudorandom signal) in the generator voltage regulation channel. The parameter estimation was performed by minimizing the objective function defined as a mean square error for deviations between the measurement waveforms and the waveforms calculated based on the generator mathematical model. A hybrid algorithm was used for the minimization of the objective function. In the paper, there is described a filter system used for filtering the noisy measurement waveforms. The calculation results of the model of a 44 kW synchronous generator installed on a laboratory stand of the Institute of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science of the Silesian University of Technology are also given. The presented estimation method can be successfully applied to parameter estimation of different models of high-power synchronous generators operating in a power system.
On the role of modeling parameters in IMRT plan optimization
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Krause, Michael; Scherrer, Alexander; Thieke, Christian
2008-01-01
The formulation of optimization problems in intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) planning comprises the choice of various values such as function-specific parameters or constraint bounds. In current inverse planning programs that yield a single treatment plan for each optimization, it is often unclear how strongly these modeling parameters affect the resulting plan. This work investigates the mathematical concepts of elasticity and sensitivity to deal with this problem. An artificial planning case with a horse-shoe formed target with different opening angles surrounding a circular risk structure is studied. As evaluation functions the generalized equivalent uniform dose (EUD) and the average underdosage below and average overdosage beyond certain dose thresholds are used. A single IMRT plan is calculated for an exemplary parameter configuration. The elasticity and sensitivity of each parameter are then calculated without re-optimization, and the results are numerically verified. The results show the following. (1) elasticity can quantify the influence of a modeling parameter on the optimization result in terms of how strongly the objective function value varies under modifications of the parameter value. It also can describe how strongly the geometry of the involved planning structures affects the optimization result. (2) Based on the current parameter settings and corresponding treatment plan, sensitivity analysis can predict the optimization result for modified parameter values without re-optimization, and it can estimate the value intervals in which such predictions are valid. In conclusion, elasticity and sensitivity can provide helpful tools in inverse IMRT planning to identify the most critical parameters of an individual planning problem and to modify their values in an appropriate way
Coarse graining from variationally enhanced sampling applied to the Ginzburg–Landau model
Invernizzi, Michele; Valsson, Omar; Parrinello, Michele
2017-01-01
A powerful way to deal with a complex system is to build a coarse-grained model capable of catching its main physical features, while being computationally affordable. Inevitably, such coarse-grained models introduce a set of phenomenological parameters, which are often not easily deducible from the underlying atomistic system. We present a unique approach to the calculation of these parameters, based on the recently introduced variationally enhanced sampling method. It allows us to obtain the parameters from atomistic simulations, providing thus a direct connection between the microscopic and the mesoscopic scale. The coarse-grained model we consider is that of Ginzburg–Landau, valid around a second-order critical point. In particular, we use it to describe a Lennard–Jones fluid in the region close to the liquid–vapor critical point. The procedure is general and can be adapted to other coarse-grained models. PMID:28292890
Coarse graining from variationally enhanced sampling applied to the Ginzburg-Landau model
Invernizzi, Michele; Valsson, Omar; Parrinello, Michele
2017-03-01
A powerful way to deal with a complex system is to build a coarse-grained model capable of catching its main physical features, while being computationally affordable. Inevitably, such coarse-grained models introduce a set of phenomenological parameters, which are often not easily deducible from the underlying atomistic system. We present a unique approach to the calculation of these parameters, based on the recently introduced variationally enhanced sampling method. It allows us to obtain the parameters from atomistic simulations, providing thus a direct connection between the microscopic and the mesoscopic scale. The coarse-grained model we consider is that of Ginzburg-Landau, valid around a second-order critical point. In particular, we use it to describe a Lennard-Jones fluid in the region close to the liquid-vapor critical point. The procedure is general and can be adapted to other coarse-grained models.
A variational formulation for linear models in coupled dynamic thermoelasticity
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Feijoo, R.A.; Moura, C.A. de.
1981-07-01
A variational formulation for linear models in coupled dynamic thermoelasticity which quite naturally motivates the design of a numerical scheme for the problem, is studied. When linked to regularization or penalization techniques, this algorithm may be applied to more general models, namely, the ones that consider non-linear constraints associated to variational inequalities. The basic postulates of Mechanics and Thermodynamics as well as some well-known mathematical techniques are described. A thorough description of the algorithm implementation with the finite-element method is also provided. Proofs for existence and uniqueness of solutions and for convergence of the approximations are presented, and some numerical results are exhibited. (Author) [pt
Assessment of Lumped-Parameter Models for Rigid Footings
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Lars
2010-01-01
The quality of consistent lumped-parameter models of rigid footings is examined. Emphasis is put on the maximum response during excitation and the geometrical damping related to free vibrations. The optimal order of a lumped-parameter model is determined for each degree of freedom, i.e. horizontal...... and vertical translations as well as torsion and rocking, and the necessity of coupling between horizontal sliding and rocking is discussed. Most of the analyses are carried out for hexagonal footings; but in order to generalise the conclusions to a broader variety of footings, comparisons are made...... with the response of circular and square foundations....
Lohvithee, Manasavee; Biguri, Ander; Soleimani, Manuchehr
2017-12-01
There are a number of powerful total variation (TV) regularization methods that have great promise in limited data cone-beam CT reconstruction with an enhancement of image quality. These promising TV methods require careful selection of the image reconstruction parameters, for which there are no well-established criteria. This paper presents a comprehensive evaluation of parameter selection in a number of major TV-based reconstruction algorithms. An appropriate way of selecting the values for each individual parameter has been suggested. Finally, a new adaptive-weighted projection-controlled steepest descent (AwPCSD) algorithm is presented, which implements the edge-preserving function for CBCT reconstruction with limited data. The proposed algorithm shows significant robustness compared to three other existing algorithms: ASD-POCS, AwASD-POCS and PCSD. The proposed AwPCSD algorithm is able to preserve the edges of the reconstructed images better with fewer sensitive parameters to tune.
Climate change decision-making: Model & parameter uncertainties explored
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Dowlatabadi, H.; Kandlikar, M.; Linville, C.
1995-12-31
A critical aspect of climate change decision-making is uncertainties in current understanding of the socioeconomic, climatic and biogeochemical processes involved. Decision-making processes are much better informed if these uncertainties are characterized and their implications understood. Quantitative analysis of these uncertainties serve to inform decision makers about the likely outcome of policy initiatives, and help set priorities for research so that outcome ambiguities faced by the decision-makers are reduced. A family of integrated assessment models of climate change have been developed at Carnegie Mellon. These models are distinguished from other integrated assessment efforts in that they were designed from the outset to characterize and propagate parameter, model, value, and decision-rule uncertainties. The most recent of these models is ICAM 2.1. This model includes representation of the processes of demographics, economic activity, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, climate and sea level change and impacts from these changes and policies for emissions mitigation, and adaptation to change. The model has over 800 objects of which about one half are used to represent uncertainty. In this paper we show, that when considering parameter uncertainties, the relative contribution of climatic uncertainties are most important, followed by uncertainties in damage calculations, economic uncertainties and direct aerosol forcing uncertainties. When considering model structure uncertainties we find that the choice of policy is often dominated by model structure choice, rather than parameter uncertainties.
A simple physical model predicts small exon length variations.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
2006-04-01
Full Text Available One of the most common splice variations are small exon length variations caused by the use of alternative donor or acceptor splice sites that are in very close proximity on the pre-mRNA. Among these, three-nucleotide variations at so-called NAGNAG tandem acceptor sites have recently attracted considerable attention, and it has been suggested that these variations are regulated and serve to fine-tune protein forms by the addition or removal of a single amino acid. In this paper we first show that in-frame exon length variations are generally overrepresented and that this overrepresentation can be quantitatively explained by the effect of nonsense-mediated decay. Our analysis allows us to estimate that about 50% of frame-shifted coding transcripts are targeted by nonsense-mediated decay. Second, we show that a simple physical model that assumes that the splicing machinery stochastically binds to nearby splice sites in proportion to the affinities of the sites correctly predicts the relative abundances of different small length variations at both boundaries. Finally, using the same simple physical model, we show that for NAGNAG sites, the difference in affinities of the neighboring sites for the splicing machinery accurately predicts whether splicing will occur only at the first site, splicing will occur only at the second site, or three-nucleotide splice variants are likely to occur. Our analysis thus suggests that small exon length variations are the result of stochastic binding of the spliceosome at neighboring splice sites. Small exon length variations occur when there are nearby alternative splice sites that have similar affinity for the splicing machinery.
Parameter estimation in nonlinear models for pesticide degradation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Richter, O.; Pestemer, W.; Bunte, D.; Diekkrueger, B.
1991-01-01
A wide class of environmental transfer models is formulated as ordinary or partial differential equations. With the availability of fast computers, the numerical solution of large systems became feasible. The main difficulty in performing a realistic and convincing simulation of the fate of a substance in the biosphere is not the implementation of numerical techniques but rather the incomplete data basis for parameter estimation. Parameter estimation is a synonym for statistical and numerical procedures to derive reasonable numerical values for model parameters from data. The classical method is the familiar linear regression technique which dates back to the 18th century. Because it is easy to handle, linear regression has long been established as a convenient tool for analysing relationships. However, the wide use of linear regression has led to an overemphasis of linear relationships. In nature, most relationships are nonlinear and linearization often gives a poor approximation of reality. Furthermore, pure regression models are not capable to map the dynamics of a process. Therefore, realistic models involve the evolution in time (and space). This leads in a natural way to the formulation of differential equations. To establish the link between data and dynamical models, numerical advanced parameter identification methods have been developed in recent years. This paper demonstrates the application of these techniques to estimation problems in the field of pesticide dynamics. (7 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs.)
Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
M. Wasiolek
2006-01-01
This analysis is one of the technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), referred to in this report as the biosphere model. ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'' is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the biosphere model is presented in Figure 1-1 (based on BSC 2006 [DIRS 176938]). This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This analysis report defines and justifies values of atmospheric mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of the biosphere model to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception. This report is concerned primarily with the
Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
M. Wasiolek
2006-06-05
This analysis is one of the technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), referred to in this report as the biosphere model. ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'' is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the biosphere model is presented in Figure 1-1 (based on BSC 2006 [DIRS 176938]). This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This analysis report defines and justifies values of atmospheric mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of the biosphere model to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception. This
The level density parameters for fermi gas model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zuang Youxiang; Wang Cuilan; Zhou Chunmei; Su Zongdi
1986-01-01
Nuclear level densities are crucial ingredient in the statistical models, for instance, in the calculations of the widths, cross sections, emitted particle spectra, etc. for various reaction channels. In this work 667 sets of more reliable and new experimental data are adopted, which include average level spacing D D , radiative capture width Γ γ 0 at neutron binding energy and cumulative level number N 0 at the low excitation energy. They are published during 1973 to 1983. Based on the parameters given by Gilbert-Cameon and Cook the physical quantities mentioned above are calculated. The calculated results have the deviation obviously from experimental values. In order to improve the fitting, the parameters in the G-C formula are adjusted and new set of level density parameters is obsained. The parameters is this work are more suitable to fit new measurements
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Yang, Yang [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Liao, Hong [School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing China; Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing China; Lou, Sijia [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA
2016-11-05
The increase in winter haze over eastern China in recent decades due to variations in meteorological parameters and anthropogenic emissions was quantified using observed atmospheric visibility from the National Climatic Data Center Global Summary of Day database for 1980–2014 and simulated PM2.5 concentrations for 1985–2005 from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). Observed winter haze days averaged over eastern China (105–122.5°E, 20–45°N) increased from 21 d in 1980 to 42 d in 2014, and from 22 to 30 d between 1985 and 2005. The GEOS-Chem model captured the increasing trend of winter PM2.5 concentrations for 1985–2005, with concentrations averaged over eastern China increasing from 16.1 μg m^{-3} in 1985 to 38.4 μg m^{-3} in 2005. Considering variations in both anthropogenic emissions and meteorological parameters, the model simulated an increase in winter surface-layer PM2.5 concentrations of 10.5 (±6.2) μg m^{-3} decade^{-1} over eastern China. The increasing trend was only 1.8 (±1.5) μg m^{-3} decade^{-1} when variations in meteorological parameters alone were considered. Among the meteorological parameters, the weakening of winds by -0.09 m s^{-1} decade^{-1} over 1985–2005 was found to be the dominant factor leading to the decadal increase in winter aerosol concentrations and haze days over eastern China during recent decades.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Boukhal, H.; Cherkaoui, T.E.; Lferde, M.
1994-01-01
In order to verify the possibility of radon signal use in earthquake prediction, a study of radon emanation variation in soil was undertaken. Regular measurements have been carried out in five cities of Morocco ( Rabat, Tetouan, Ifrane, Khouribga, Berchid). The measuring method is based on the solid state nuclear track detectors technique. The good correlation between the different seismic activities and the variations of radon emanation rate in the five stations, have shown the interest of radon use in the earthquake prediction. 1 tab., 2 figs., 2 refs. (author)
Variations in Modeled Dengue Transmission over Puerto Rico Using a Climate Driven Dynamic Model
Morin, Cory; Monaghan, Andrew; Crosson, William; Quattrochi, Dale; Luvall, Jeffrey
2014-01-01
Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease reemerging throughout much of the tropical Americas. Dengue virus transmission is explicitly influenced by climate and the environment through its primary vector, Aedes aegypti. Temperature regulates Ae. aegypti development, survival, and replication rates as well as the incubation period of the virus within the mosquito. Precipitation provides water for many of the preferred breeding habitats of the mosquito, including buckets, old tires, and other places water can collect. Because of variations in topography, ocean influences and atmospheric processes, temperature and rainfall patterns vary across Puerto Rico and so do dengue virus transmission rates. Using NASA's TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite for precipitation input, ground-based observations for temperature input, and laboratory confirmed dengue cases reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for parameter calibration, we modeled dengue transmission at the county level across Puerto Rico from 2010-2013 using a dynamic dengue transmission model that includes interacting vector ecology and epidemiological components. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we performed ensembles of several thousands of model simulations for each county in order to resolve the model uncertainty arising from using different combinations of parameter values that are not well known. The top 1% of model simulations that best reproduced the reported dengue case data were then analyzed to determine the most important parameters for dengue virus transmission in each county, as well as the relative influence of climate variability on transmission. These results can be used by public health workers to implement dengue control methods that are targeted for specific locations and climate conditions.
Norros, Veera; Laine, Marko; Lignell, Risto; Thingstad, Frede
2017-10-01
Methods for extracting empirically and theoretically sound parameter values are urgently needed in aquatic ecosystem modelling to describe key flows and their variation in the system. Here, we compare three Bayesian formulations for mechanistic model parameterization that differ in their assumptions about the variation in parameter values between various datasets: 1) global analysis - no variation, 2) separate analysis - independent variation and 3) hierarchical analysis - variation arising from a shared distribution defined by hyperparameters. We tested these methods, using computer-generated and empirical data, coupled with simplified and reasonably realistic plankton food web models, respectively. While all methods were adequate, the simulated example demonstrated that a well-designed hierarchical analysis can result in the most accurate and precise parameter estimates and predictions, due to its ability to combine information across datasets. However, our results also highlighted sensitivity to hyperparameter prior distributions as an important caveat of hierarchical analysis. In the more complex empirical example, hierarchical analysis was able to combine precise identification of parameter values with reasonably good predictive performance, although the ranking of the methods was less straightforward. We conclude that hierarchical Bayesian analysis is a promising tool for identifying key ecosystem-functioning parameters and their variation from empirical datasets.
Identifiability and error minimization of receptor model parameters with PET
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Delforge, J.; Syrota, A.; Mazoyer, B.M.
1989-01-01
The identifiability problem and the general framework for experimental design optimization are presented. The methodology is applied to the problem of the receptor-ligand model parameter estimation with dynamic positron emission tomography data. The first attempts to identify the model parameters from data obtained with a single tracer injection led to disappointing numerical results. The possibility of improving parameter estimation using a new experimental design combining an injection of the labelled ligand and an injection of the cold ligand (displacement experiment) has been investigated. However, this second protocol led to two very different numerical solutions and it was necessary to demonstrate which solution was biologically valid. This has been possible by using a third protocol including both a displacement and a co-injection experiment. (authors). 16 refs.; 14 figs
X-Parameter Based Modelling of Polar Modulated Power Amplifiers
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Wang, Yelin; Nielsen, Troels Studsgaard; Sira, Daniel
2013-01-01
X-parameters are developed as an extension of S-parameters capable of modelling non-linear devices driven by large signals. They are suitable for devices having only radio frequency (RF) and DC ports. In a polar power amplifier (PA), phase and envelope of the input modulated signal are applied...... at separate ports and the envelope port is neither an RF nor a DC port. As a result, X-parameters may fail to characterise the effect of the envelope port excitation and consequently the polar PA. This study introduces a solution to the problem for a commercial polar PA. In this solution, the RF-phase path...... PA for simulations. The simulated error vector magnitude (EVM) and adjacent channel power ratio (ACPR) were compared with the measured data to validate the model. The maximum differences between the simulated and measured EVM and ACPR are less than 2% point and 3 dB, respectively....
Joint Dynamics Modeling and Parameter Identification for Space Robot Applications
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Adenilson R. da Silva
2007-01-01
Full Text Available Long-term mission identification and model validation for in-flight manipulator control system in almost zero gravity with hostile space environment are extremely important for robotic applications. In this paper, a robot joint mathematical model is developed where several nonlinearities have been taken into account. In order to identify all the required system parameters, an integrated identification strategy is derived. This strategy makes use of a robust version of least-squares procedure (LS for getting the initial conditions and a general nonlinear optimization method (MCS—multilevel coordinate search—algorithm to estimate the nonlinear parameters. The approach is applied to the intelligent robot joint (IRJ experiment that was developed at DLR for utilization opportunity on the International Space Station (ISS. The results using real and simulated measurements have shown that the developed algorithm and strategy have remarkable features in identifying all the parameters with good accuracy.
A Variational Bayes Genomic-Enabled Prediction Model with Genotype × Environment Interaction
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Osval A. Montesinos-López
2017-06-01
Full Text Available There are Bayesian and non-Bayesian genomic models that take into account G×E interactions. However, the computational cost of implementing Bayesian models is high, and becomes almost impossible when the number of genotypes, environments, and traits is very large, while, in non-Bayesian models, there are often important and unsolved convergence problems. The variational Bayes method is popular in machine learning, and, by approximating the probability distributions through optimization, it tends to be faster than Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. For this reason, in this paper, we propose a new genomic variational Bayes version of the Bayesian genomic model with G×E using half-t priors on each standard deviation (SD term to guarantee highly noninformative and posterior inferences that are not sensitive to the choice of hyper-parameters. We show the complete theoretical derivation of the full conditional and the variational posterior distributions, and their implementations. We used eight experimental genomic maize and wheat data sets to illustrate the new proposed variational Bayes approximation, and compared its predictions and implementation time with a standard Bayesian genomic model with G×E. Results indicated that prediction accuracies are slightly higher in the standard Bayesian model with G×E than in its variational counterpart, but, in terms of computation time, the variational Bayes genomic model with G×E is, in general, 10 times faster than the conventional Bayesian genomic model with G×E. For this reason, the proposed model may be a useful tool for researchers who need to predict and select genotypes in several environments.
Model parameters estimation and sensitivity by genetic algorithms
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Marseguerra, Marzio; Zio, Enrico; Podofillini, Luca
2003-01-01
In this paper we illustrate the possibility of extracting qualitative information on the importance of the parameters of a model in the course of a Genetic Algorithms (GAs) optimization procedure for the estimation of such parameters. The Genetic Algorithms' search of the optimal solution is performed according to procedures that resemble those of natural selection and genetics: an initial population of alternative solutions evolves within the search space through the four fundamental operations of parent selection, crossover, replacement, and mutation. During the search, the algorithm examines a large amount of solution points which possibly carries relevant information on the underlying model characteristics. A possible utilization of this information amounts to create and update an archive with the set of best solutions found at each generation and then to analyze the evolution of the statistics of the archive along the successive generations. From this analysis one can retrieve information regarding the speed of convergence and stabilization of the different control (decision) variables of the optimization problem. In this work we analyze the evolution strategy followed by a GA in its search for the optimal solution with the aim of extracting information on the importance of the control (decision) variables of the optimization with respect to the sensitivity of the objective function. The study refers to a GA search for optimal estimates of the effective parameters in a lumped nuclear reactor model of literature. The supporting observation is that, as most optimization procedures do, the GA search evolves towards convergence in such a way to stabilize first the most important parameters of the model and later those which influence little the model outputs. In this sense, besides estimating efficiently the parameters values, the optimization approach also allows us to provide a qualitative ranking of their importance in contributing to the model output. The
Revised Parameters for the AMOEBA Polarizable Atomic Multipole Water Model.
Laury, Marie L; Wang, Lee-Ping; Pande, Vijay S; Head-Gordon, Teresa; Ponder, Jay W
2015-07-23
A set of improved parameters for the AMOEBA polarizable atomic multipole water model is developed. An automated procedure, ForceBalance, is used to adjust model parameters to enforce agreement with ab initio-derived results for water clusters and experimental data for a variety of liquid phase properties across a broad temperature range. The values reported here for the new AMOEBA14 water model represent a substantial improvement over the previous AMOEBA03 model. The AMOEBA14 model accurately predicts the temperature of maximum density and qualitatively matches the experimental density curve across temperatures from 249 to 373 K. Excellent agreement is observed for the AMOEBA14 model in comparison to experimental properties as a function of temperature, including the second virial coefficient, enthalpy of vaporization, isothermal compressibility, thermal expansion coefficient, and dielectric constant. The viscosity, self-diffusion constant, and surface tension are also well reproduced. In comparison to high-level ab initio results for clusters of 2-20 water molecules, the AMOEBA14 model yields results similar to AMOEBA03 and the direct polarization iAMOEBA models. With advances in computing power, calibration data, and optimization techniques, we recommend the use of the AMOEBA14 water model for future studies employing a polarizable water model.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ferrari, A.; Gutierrez, S.; Sin, Gürkan
2016-01-01
A steady state model for a production scale milk drying process was built to help process understanding and optimization studies. It involves a spray chamber and also internal/external fluid beds. The model was subjected to a comprehensive statistical analysis for quality assurance using...... sensitivity analysis of inputs/parameters, and uncertainty analysis to estimate confidence intervals on parameters and model predictions (error propagation). Variance based sensitivity analysis (Sobol's method) was used to quantify the influence of inputs on the final powder moisture as the model output...... at chamber inlet air (variation > 100%). The sensitivity analysis results suggest exploring improvements in the current control (Proportional Integral Derivative) for moisture content at concentrate chamber feed in order to reduce the output variance. It is also confirmed that humidity control at chamber...
Chung, Sang Yong; Senapathi, Venkatramanan; Sekar, Selvam; Kim, Tae Hyung
2018-02-01
Monitoring and time-series analysis of the hydrological parameters electrical conductivity (EC), water pressure, precipitation and tide were carried out, to understand the characteristics of the parameter variations and their correlations at a coastal area in Busan, South Korea. The monitoring data were collected at a sharp interface between freshwater and saline water at the depth of 25 m below ground. Two well-logging profiles showed that seawater intrusion has largely expanded (progressed inland), and has greatly affected the groundwater quality in a coastal aquifer of tuffaceous sedimentary rock over a 9-year period. According to the time series analyses, the periodograms of the hydrological parameters present very similar trends to the power spectral densities (PSD) of the hydrological parameters. Autocorrelation functions (ACF) and partial autocorrelation functions (PACF) of the hydrological parameters were produced to evaluate their self-correlations. The ACFs of all hydrologic parameters showed very good correlation over the entire time lag, but the PACF revealed that the correlations were good only at time lag 1. Crosscorrelation functions (CCF) were used to evaluate the correlations between the hydrological parameters and the characteristics of seawater intrusion in the coastal aquifer system. The CCFs showed that EC had a close relationship with water pressure and precipitation rather than tide. The CCFs of water pressure with tide and precipitation were in inverse proportion, and the CCF of water pressure with precipitation was larger than that with tide.
Latitudinal variations of aerosol optical parameters over South Africa based on MISR satellite data
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Tesfaye M
2010-09-01
Full Text Available The latitudunal variation of the relative weight size distribution and optical properties of aerosols over South Africa is presented here. The study uses 10-years of Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) satellite data, collected over South...
Revised models and genetic parameter estimates for production and ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Genetic parameters for production and reproduction traits in the Elsenburg Dormer sheep stud were estimated using records of 11743 lambs born between 1943 and 2002. An animal model with direct and maternal additive, maternal permanent and temporary environmental effects was fitted for traits considered traits of the ...
Parameter Estimation for a Computable General Equilibrium Model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Arndt, Channing; Robinson, Sherman; Tarp, Finn
We introduce a maximum entropy approach to parameter estimation for computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The approach applies information theory to estimating a system of nonlinear simultaneous equations. It has a number of advantages. First, it imposes all general equilibrium constraints...
Comparison of parameter estimation algorithms in hydrological modelling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Blasone, Roberta-Serena; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan
2006-01-01
for these types of models, although at a more expensive computational cost. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the performance of a global and a local parameter optimization algorithm, respectively, the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) algorithm and the gradient-based Gauss...
Parameter Estimation for a Computable General Equilibrium Model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Arndt, Channing; Robinson, Sherman; Tarp, Finn
2002-01-01
We introduce a maximum entropy approach to parameter estimation for computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The approach applies information theory to estimating a system of non-linear simultaneous equations. It has a number of advantages. First, it imposes all general equilibrium constraints...
Constraint on Parameters of Inverse Compton Scattering Model for ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
J. Astrophys. Astr. (2011) 32, 299–300 c Indian Academy of Sciences. Constraint on Parameters of Inverse Compton Scattering Model for PSR B2319+60. H. G. Wang. ∗. & M. Lv. Center for Astrophysics,Guangzhou University, Guangzhou, China. ∗ e-mail: cosmic008@yahoo.com.cn. Abstract. Using the multifrequency radio ...
Parameter sensitivity analysis of a 1-D cold region lake model for land-surface schemes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J.-L. Guerrero
2017-12-01
Full Text Available Lakes might be sentinels of climate change, but the uncertainty in their main feedback to the atmosphere – heat-exchange fluxes – is often not considered within climate models. Additionally, these fluxes are seldom measured, hindering critical evaluation of model output. Analysis of the Canadian Small Lake Model (CSLM, a one-dimensional integral lake model, was performed to assess its ability to reproduce diurnal and seasonal variations in heat fluxes and the sensitivity of simulated fluxes to changes in model parameters, i.e., turbulent transport parameters and the light extinction coefficient (Kd. A C++ open-source software package, Problem Solving environment for Uncertainty Analysis and Design Exploration (PSUADE, was used to perform sensitivity analysis (SA and identify the parameters that dominate model behavior. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE was applied to quantify the fluxes' uncertainty, comparing daily-averaged eddy-covariance observations to the output of CSLM. Seven qualitative and two quantitative SA methods were tested, and the posterior likelihoods of the modeled parameters, obtained from the GLUE analysis, were used to determine the dominant parameters and the uncertainty in the modeled fluxes. Despite the ubiquity of the equifinality issue – different parameter-value combinations yielding equivalent results – the answer to the question was unequivocal: Kd, a measure of how much light penetrates the lake, dominates sensible and latent heat fluxes, and the uncertainty in their estimates is strongly related to the accuracy with which Kd is determined. This is important since accurate and continuous measurements of Kd could reduce modeling uncertainty.
Variational Boussinesq model for simulation of coastal waves and tsunamis
Adytia, D.; Adytia, Didit; van Groesen, Embrecht W.C.; Tan, Soon Keat; Huang, Zhenhua
2009-01-01
In this paper we describe the basic ideas of a so-called Variational Boussinesq Model which is based on the Hamiltonian structure of gravity surface waves. By using a rather simple approach to prescribe the profile of vertical fluid potential in the expression for the kinetic energy, we obtain a set
Variational Boussinesq model for strongly nonlinear dispersive waves
Lawrence, C.; Adytia, D.; van Groesen, E.
2018-01-01
For wave tank, coastal and oceanic applications, a fully nonlinear Variational Boussinesq model with optimized dispersion is derived and a simple Finite Element implementation is described. Improving a previous weakly nonlinear version, high waves over flat and varying bottom are shown to be
Modelling seasonal variations of natural radioactivity in soils: A case ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Modelling seasonal variations of natural radioactivity in soils: A case study in southern Italy. Ilaria Guagliardi1,2,∗. , Natalia Rovella2, Carmine Apollaro2, Andrea Bloise2,. Rosanna De Rosa2, Fabio Scarciglia2 and Gabriele Buttafuoco1. 1National Research Council of Italy – Institute for Agricultural and Forest Systems in ...
Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
M. A. Wasiolek
2003-01-01
This analysis is one of the nine reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003a) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents a set of input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. This report, ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2003b). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development at the time this report is issued and therefore not available at that time. This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this analysis report. This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading, which is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Measurements of mass loading are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air surrounding crops and concentrations in air inhaled by a receptor. Concentrations in air to which the
Integrating microbial diversity in soil carbon dynamic models parameters
Louis, Benjamin; Menasseri-Aubry, Safya; Leterme, Philippe; Maron, Pierre-Alain; Viaud, Valérie
2015-04-01
Faced with the numerous concerns about soil carbon dynamic, a large quantity of carbon dynamic models has been developed during the last century. These models are mainly in the form of deterministic compartment models with carbon fluxes between compartments represented by ordinary differential equations. Nowadays, lots of them consider the microbial biomass as a compartment of the soil organic matter (carbon quantity). But the amount of microbial carbon is rarely used in the differential equations of the models as a limiting factor. Additionally, microbial diversity and community composition are mostly missing, although last advances in soil microbial analytical methods during the two past decades have shown that these characteristics play also a significant role in soil carbon dynamic. As soil microorganisms are essential drivers of soil carbon dynamic, the question about explicitly integrating their role have become a key issue in soil carbon dynamic models development. Some interesting attempts can be found and are dominated by the incorporation of several compartments of different groups of microbial biomass in terms of functional traits and/or biogeochemical compositions to integrate microbial diversity. However, these models are basically heuristic models in the sense that they are used to test hypotheses through simulations. They have rarely been confronted to real data and thus cannot be used to predict realistic situations. The objective of this work was to empirically integrate microbial diversity in a simple model of carbon dynamic through statistical modelling of the model parameters. This work is based on available experimental results coming from a French National Research Agency program called DIMIMOS. Briefly, 13C-labelled wheat residue has been incorporated into soils with different pedological characteristics and land use history. Then, the soils have been incubated during 104 days and labelled and non-labelled CO2 fluxes have been measured at ten
Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
M. A. Wasiolek
2003-09-24
This analysis is one of the nine reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003a) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents a set of input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. This report, ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2003b). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development at the time this report is issued and therefore not available at that time. This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this analysis report. This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading, which is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Measurements of mass loading are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air surrounding crops and concentrations in air
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rawid Banchuin
2013-01-01
Full Text Available The novel probabilistic models of the random variations in nanoscale MOSFET's high frequency performance defined in terms of gate capacitance and transition frequency have been proposed. As the transition frequency variation has also been considered, the proposed models are considered as complete unlike the previous one which take only the gate capacitance variation into account. The proposed models have been found to be both analytic and physical level oriented as they are the precise mathematical expressions in terms of physical parameters. Since the up-to-date model of variation in MOSFET's characteristic induced by physical level fluctuation has been used, part of the proposed models for gate capacitance is more accurate and physical level oriented than its predecessor. The proposed models have been verified based on the 65 nm CMOS technology by using the Monte-Carlo SPICE simulations of benchmark circuits and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests as highly accurate since they fit the Monte-Carlo-based analysis results with 99% confidence. Hence, these novel models have been found to be versatile for the statistical/variability aware analysis/design of nanoscale MOSFET-based analog/mixed signal circuits and systems.
Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
K. Rasmuson; K. Rautenstrauch
2004-09-14
This analysis is one of 10 technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) (i.e., the biosphere model). It documents development of agricultural and environmental input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters.
Estimating model parameters in nonautonomous chaotic systems using synchronization
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yang, Xiaoli; Xu, Wei; Sun, Zhongkui
2007-01-01
In this Letter, a technique is addressed for estimating unknown model parameters of multivariate, in particular, nonautonomous chaotic systems from time series of state variables. This technique uses an adaptive strategy for tracking unknown parameters in addition to a linear feedback coupling for synchronizing systems, and then some general conditions, by means of the periodic version of the LaSalle invariance principle for differential equations, are analytically derived to ensure precise evaluation of unknown parameters and identical synchronization between the concerned experimental system and its corresponding receiver one. Exemplifies are presented by employing a parametrically excited 4D new oscillator and an additionally excited Ueda oscillator. The results of computer simulations reveal that the technique not only can quickly track the desired parameter values but also can rapidly respond to changes in operating parameters. In addition, the technique can be favorably robust against the effect of noise when the experimental system is corrupted by bounded disturbance and the normalized absolute error of parameter estimation grows almost linearly with the cutoff value of noise strength in simulation
Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Smith, A. J.
2004-01-01
This report presents one of the analyses that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the details of the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and the required input parameters. The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the postclosure Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. A schematic representation of the documentation flow for the Biosphere input to TSPA is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the evolutionary relationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this report. This report, ''Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five analysis reports that develop input parameters for use in the ERMYN model. This report is the source documentation for the six biosphere parameters identified in Table 1-1. The purpose of this analysis was to develop the biosphere model parameters associated with the accumulation and depletion of radionuclides in the soil. These parameters support the calculation of radionuclide concentrations in soil from on-going irrigation or ash deposition and, as a direct consequence, radionuclide concentration in other environmental media that are affected by radionuclide concentrations in soil. The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) where the governing procedure was defined as AP-SIII.9Q, ''Scientific Analyses''. This
Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
A. J. Smith
2004-09-09
This report presents one of the analyses that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the details of the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and the required input parameters. The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the postclosure Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. A schematic representation of the documentation flow for the Biosphere input to TSPA is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the evolutionary relationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this report. This report, ''Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five analysis reports that develop input parameters for use in the ERMYN model. This report is the source documentation for the six biosphere parameters identified in Table 1-1. The purpose of this analysis was to develop the biosphere model parameters associated with the accumulation and depletion of radionuclides in the soil. These parameters support the calculation of radionuclide concentrations in soil from on-going irrigation or ash deposition and, as a direct consequence, radionuclide concentration in other environmental media that are affected by radionuclide concentrations in soil. The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) where the governing procedure
Space geodetic techniques for global modeling of ionospheric peak parameters
Alizadeh, M. Mahdi; Schuh, Harald; Schmidt, Michael
The rapid development of new technological systems for navigation, telecommunication, and space missions which transmit signals through the Earth’s upper atmosphere - the ionosphere - makes the necessity of precise, reliable and near real-time models of the ionospheric parameters more crucial. In the last decades space geodetic techniques have turned into a capable tool for measuring ionospheric parameters in terms of Total Electron Content (TEC) or the electron density. Among these systems, the current space geodetic techniques, such as Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), Low Earth Orbiting (LEO) satellites, satellite altimetry missions, and others have found several applications in a broad range of commercial and scientific fields. This paper aims at the development of a three-dimensional integrated model of the ionosphere, by using various space geodetic techniques and applying a combination procedure for computation of the global model of electron density. In order to model ionosphere in 3D, electron density is represented as a function of maximum electron density (NmF2), and its corresponding height (hmF2). NmF2 and hmF2 are then modeled in longitude, latitude, and height using two sets of spherical harmonic expansions with degree and order 15. To perform the estimation, GNSS input data are simulated in such a way that the true position of the satellites are detected and used, but the STEC values are obtained through a simulation procedure, using the IGS VTEC maps. After simulating the input data, the a priori values required for the estimation procedure are calculated using the IRI-2012 model and also by applying the ray-tracing technique. The estimated results are compared with F2-peak parameters derived from the IRI model to assess the least-square estimation procedure and moreover, to validate the developed maps, the results are compared with the raw F2-peak parameters derived from the Formosat-3/Cosmic data.
Variation of Solar, Interplanetary and Geomagnetic Parameters during Solar Cycles 21-24
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Suyeon Oh
2013-06-01
Full Text Available The length of solar cycle 23 has been prolonged up to about 13 years. Many studies have speculated that the solar cycle 23/24 minimum will indicate the onset of a grand minimum of solar activity, such as the Maunder Minimum. We check the trends of solar (sunspot number, solar magnetic fields, total solar irradiance, solar radio flux, and frequency of solar X-ray flare, interplanetary (interplanetary magnetic field, solar wind and galactic cosmic ray intensity, and geomagnetic (Ap index parameters (SIG parameters during solar cycles 21-24. Most SIG parameters during the period of the solar cycle 23/24 minimum have remarkably low values. Since the 1970s, the space environment has been monitored by ground observatories and satellites. Such prevalently low values of SIG parameters have never been seen. We suggest that these unprecedented conditions of SIG parameters originate from the weakened solar magnetic fields. Meanwhile, the deep 23/24 solar cycle minimum might be the portent of a grand minimum in which the global mean temperature of the lower atmosphere is as low as in the period of Dalton or Maunder minimum.
Chen, Qian; Shou, Weiling; Wu, Wei; Guo, Ye; Zhang, Yujuan; Huang, Chunmei; Cui, Wei
2015-04-01
To accurately estimate longitudinal changes in individuals, it is important to take into consideration the biological variability of the measurement. The few studies available on the biological variations of coagulation parameters are mostly outdated. We confirmed the published results using modern, fully automated methods. Furthermore, we added data for additional coagulation parameters. At 8:00 am, 12:00 pm, and 4:00 pm on days 1, 3, and 5, venous blood was collected from 31 healthy volunteers. A total of 16 parameters related to coagulation screening tests as well as the activity of coagulation factors were analyzed; these included prothrombin time, fibrinogen (Fbg), activated partial thromboplastin time, thrombin time, international normalized ratio, prothrombin time activity, activated partial thromboplastin time ratio, fibrin(-ogen) degradation products, as well as the activity of factor II, factor V, factor VII, factor VIII, factor IX, and factor X. All intraindividual coefficients of variation (CVI) values for the parameters of the screening tests (except Fbg) were less than 5%. Conversely, the CVI values for the activity of coagulation factors were all greater than 5%. In addition, we calculated the reference change value to determine whether a significant difference exists between two test results from the same individual. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.
A new method for determination of parameters in sewer pollutant transformation process model.
Jiang, F; Leung, H W D; Li, S Y; Lin, G S; Chen, G H
2007-11-01
Understanding pollutant transformation in sewers is important in controlling odor emission from pressure mains as well as in assessing organic pollutant removal capacity of gravity sewers. Sewer process models have thus been developed to quantify the pollutant transformation processes under various sewer conditions. The quantification largely depends on model parameter values, in particular the kinetic and stoichiometric parameters related to microbial activities. The current approaches not only involve a large amount of experimental work but also may induce significant errors when microbial reactions cannot be differentiated effectively during the experiments. Therefore, this study is aimed at developing a new method that can reduce experimental work significantly. The proposed method utilizes a genetic algorithm (GA) to enable the determination with a single set of batch experiments. To study the feasibility of the proposed method, a set of 72-hr batch experiments was first conducted for determining the parameters of a sewer model developed in this study, which adopted a full version of the International Water Association (IWA) Activated Sludge Model No. 3 (ASM3) to describe the microbial activities in sewers. The results were then verified with two different sets of the batch experiments. Furthermore, dynamic variation data of dissolved oxygen level were collected at the outlet of a 1.5-km gravity sewer to validate the determined parameters. All the results showed that the proposed parameter determination method is effective.
Investigation of RADTRAN Stop Model input parameters for truck stops
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Griego, N.R.; Smith, J.D.; Neuhauser, K.S.
1996-01-01
RADTRAN is a computer code for estimating the risks and consequences as transport of radioactive materials (RAM). RADTRAN was developed and is maintained by Sandia National Laboratories for the US Department of Energy (DOE). For incident-free transportation, the dose to persons exposed while the shipment is stopped is frequently a major percentage of the overall dose. This dose is referred to as Stop Dose and is calculated by the Stop Model. Because stop dose is a significant portion of the overall dose associated with RAM transport, the values used as input for the Stop Model are important. Therefore, an investigation of typical values for RADTRAN Stop Parameters for truck stops was performed. The resulting data from these investigations were analyzed to provide mean values, standard deviations, and histograms. Hence, the mean values can be used when an analyst does not have a basis for selecting other input values for the Stop Model. In addition, the histograms and their characteristics can be used to guide statistical sampling techniques to measure sensitivity of the RADTRAN calculated Stop Dose to the uncertainties in the stop model input parameters. This paper discusses the details and presents the results of the investigation of stop model input parameters at truck stops
Four-parameter analytical local model potential for atoms
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fei, Yu; Jiu-Xun, Sun; Rong-Gang, Tian; Wei, Yang
2009-01-01
Analytical local model potential for modeling the interaction in an atom reduces the computational effort in electronic structure calculations significantly. A new four-parameter analytical local model potential is proposed for atoms Li through Lr, and the values of four parameters are shell-independent and obtained by fitting the results of X a method. At the same time, the energy eigenvalues, the radial wave functions and the total energies of electrons are obtained by solving the radial Schrödinger equation with a new form of potential function by Numerov's numerical method. The results show that our new form of potential function is suitable for high, medium and low Z atoms. A comparison among the new potential function and other analytical potential functions shows the greater flexibility and greater accuracy of the present new potential function. (atomic and molecular physics)
Improving the transferability of hydrological model parameters under changing conditions
Huang, Yingchun; Bárdossy, András
2014-05-01
Hydrological models are widely utilized to describe catchment behaviors with observed hydro-meteorological data. Hydrological process may be considered as non-stationary under the changing climate and land use conditions. An applicable hydrological model should be able to capture the essential features of the target catchment and therefore be transferable to different conditions. At present, many model applications based on the stationary assumptions are not sufficient for predicting further changes or time variability. The aim of this study is to explore new model calibration methods in order to improve the transferability of model parameters. To cope with the instability of model parameters calibrated on catchments in non-stationary conditions, we investigate the idea of simultaneously calibration on streamflow records for the period with dissimilar climate characteristics. In additional, a weather based weighting function is implemented to adjust the calibration period to future trends. For regions with limited data and ungauged basins, the common calibration was applied by using information from similar catchments. Result shows the model performance and transfer quantity could be well improved via common calibration. This model calibration approach will be used to enhance regional water management and flood forecasting capabilities.
Tillman, Fred D.; Weaver, James W.
Migration of volatile chemicals from the subsurface into overlying buildings is known as vapor intrusion (VI). Under certain circumstances, people living in homes above contaminated soil or ground water may be exposed to harmful levels of these vapors. VI is a particularly difficult pathway to assess, as challenges exist in delineating subsurface contributions to measured indoor-air concentrations as well as in adequate characterization of subsurface parameters necessary to calibrate a predictive flow and transport model. Often, a screening-level model is employed to determine if a potential indoor inhalation exposure pathway exists and, if such a pathway is complete, whether long-term exposure increases the occupants' risk for cancer or other toxic effects to an unacceptable level. A popular screening-level algorithm currently in wide use in the United States, Canada and the UK for making such determinations is the "Johnson and Ettinger" (J&E) model. Concern exists over using the J&E model for deciding whether or not further action is necessary at sites as many parameters are not routinely measured (or are un-measurable). Many screening decisions are then made based on simulations using "best estimate" look-up parameter values. While research exists on the sensitivity of the J&E model to individual parameter uncertainty, little published information is available on the combined effects of multiple uncertain parameters and their effect on screening decisions. This paper presents results of multiple-parameter uncertainty analyses using the J&E model to evaluate risk to humans from VI. Software was developed to produce automated uncertainty analyses of the model. Results indicate an increase in predicted cancer risk from multiple-parameter uncertainty by nearly a factor of 10 compared with single-parameter uncertainty. Additionally, a positive skew in model response to variation of some parameters was noted for both single and multiple parameter uncertainty analyses
Modeling extreme events: Sample fraction adaptive choice in parameter estimation
Neves, Manuela; Gomes, Ivette; Figueiredo, Fernanda; Gomes, Dora Prata
2012-09-01
When modeling extreme events there are a few primordial parameters, among which we refer the extreme value index and the extremal index. The extreme value index measures the right tail-weight of the underlying distribution and the extremal index characterizes the degree of local dependence in the extremes of a stationary sequence. Most of the semi-parametric estimators of these parameters show the same type of behaviour: nice asymptotic properties, but a high variance for small values of k, the number of upper order statistics to be used in the estimation, and a high bias for large values of k. This shows a real need for the choice of k. Choosing some well-known estimators of those parameters we revisit the application of a heuristic algorithm for the adaptive choice of k. The procedure is applied to some simulated samples as well as to some real data sets.
Robust linear parameter varying induction motor control with polytopic models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dalila Khamari
2013-01-01
Full Text Available This paper deals with a robust controller for an induction motor which is represented as a linear parameter varying systems. To do so linear matrix inequality (LMI based approach and robust Lyapunov feedback controller are associated. This new approach is related to the fact that the synthesis of a linear parameter varying (LPV feedback controller for the inner loop take into account rotor resistance and mechanical speed as varying parameter. An LPV flux observer is also synthesized to estimate rotor flux providing reference to cited above regulator. The induction motor is described as a polytopic model because of speed and rotor resistance affine dependence their values can be estimated on line during systems operations. The simulation results are presented to confirm the effectiveness of the proposed approach where robustness stability and high performances have been achieved over the entire operating range of the induction motor.
Model parameter learning using Kullback-Leibler divergence
Lin, Chungwei; Marks, Tim K.; Pajovic, Milutin; Watanabe, Shinji; Tung, Chih-kuan
2018-02-01
In this paper, we address the following problem: For a given set of spin configurations whose probability distribution is of the Boltzmann type, how do we determine the model coupling parameters? We demonstrate that directly minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence is an efficient method. We test this method against the Ising and XY models on the one-dimensional (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) lattices, and provide two estimators to quantify the model quality. We apply this method to two types of problems. First, we apply it to the real-space renormalization group (RG). We find that the obtained RG flow is sufficiently good for determining the phase boundary (within 1% of the exact result) and the critical point, but not accurate enough for critical exponents. The proposed method provides a simple way to numerically estimate amplitudes of the interactions typically truncated in the real-space RG procedure. Second, we apply this method to the dynamical system composed of self-propelled particles, where we extract the parameter of a statistical model (a generalized XY model) from a dynamical system described by the Viscek model. We are able to obtain reasonable coupling values corresponding to different noise strengths of the Viscek model. Our method is thus able to provide quantitative analysis of dynamical systems composed of self-propelled particles.
Lithium-ion Battery Electrothermal Model, Parameter Estimation, and Simulation Environment
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Simone Orcioni
2017-03-01
Full Text Available The market for lithium-ion batteries is growing exponentially. The performance of battery cells is growing due to improving production technology, but market request is growing even more rapidly. Modeling and characterization of single cells and an efficient simulation environment is fundamental for the development of an efficient battery management system. The present work is devoted to defining a novel lumped electrothermal circuit of a single battery cell, the extraction procedure of the parameters of the single cell from experiments, and a simulation environment in SystemC-WMS for the simulation of a battery pack. The electrothermal model of the cell was validated against experimental measurements obtained in a climatic chamber. The model is then used to simulate a 48-cell battery, allowing statistical variations among parameters. The different behaviors of the cells in terms of state of charge, current, voltage, or heat flow rate can be observed in the results of the simulation environment.
Thermal Model Parameter Identification of a Lithium Battery
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dirk Nissing
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The temperature of a Lithium battery cell is important for its performance, efficiency, safety, and capacity and is influenced by the environmental temperature and by the charging and discharging process itself. Battery Management Systems (BMS take into account this effect. As the temperature at the battery cell is difficult to measure, often the temperature is measured on or nearby the poles of the cell, although the accuracy of predicting the cell temperature with those quantities is limited. Therefore a thermal model of the battery is used in order to calculate and estimate the cell temperature. This paper uses a simple RC-network representation for the thermal model and shows how the thermal parameters are identified using input/output measurements only, where the load current of the battery represents the input while the temperatures at the poles represent the outputs of the measurement. With a single measurement the eight model parameters (thermal resistances, electric contact resistances, and heat capacities can be determined using the method of least-square. Experimental results show that the simple model with the identified parameters fits very accurately to the measurements.
Variations of atmospheric electric field and meteorological parameters in Kamchatka in 1997-2016
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Smirnov Sergey
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Analysis of seasonal and annual variations of aero-electric field at a midlatitudinal observatory Paratunka in Kamchatka was carried out for 1997-2016. Stable seasonal intervals of the highest and the lowest values are observed. Changeability of the annual trend of aero-electric field in the near ground air layer at the observatory located in an active geodynamic region is shown. A large positive trend was changed by a smooth negative one. It is likely to be associated either with radon emanation intensity change in the observatory region or with volcanic activity change in Kamchatka.
Contaminant transport in aquifers: improving the determination of model parameters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sabino, C.V.S.; Moreira, R.M.; Lula, Z.L.; Chausson, Y.; Magalhaes, W.F.; Vianna, M.N.
1998-01-01
Parameters conditioning the migration behavior of cesium and mercury are measured with their tracers 137 Cs and 203 Hg in the laboratory, using both batch and column experiments. Batch tests were used to define the sorption isotherm characteristics. Also investigated were the influences of some test parameters, in particular those due to the volume of water to mass of soil ratio (V/m). A provisional relationship between V/m and the distribution coefficient, K d , has been advanced, and a procedure to estimate K d 's valid for environmental values of the ratio V/m has been suggested. Column tests provided the parameters for a transport model. A major problem to be dealt with in such tests is the collimation of the radioactivity probe. Besides mechanically optimizing the collimator, a deconvolution procedure has been suggested and tested, with statistical criteria, to filter off both noise and spurious tracer signals. Correction procedures for the integrating effect introduced by sampling at the exit of columns have also been developed. These techniques may be helpful in increasing the accuracy required in the measurement of parameters conditioning contaminant migration in soils, thus allowing more reliable predictions based on mathematical model applications. (author)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Turner, D P; Ritts, W D; Wharton, S; Thomas, C; Monson, R; Black, T A
2009-02-26
The combination of satellite remote sensing and carbon cycle models provides an opportunity for regional to global scale monitoring of terrestrial gross primary production, ecosystem respiration, and net ecosystem production. FPAR (the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by the plant canopy) is a critical input to diagnostic models, however little is known about the relative effectiveness of FPAR products from different satellite sensors nor about the sensitivity of flux estimates to different parameterization approaches. In this study, we used multiyear observations of carbon flux at four eddy covariance flux tower sites within the conifer biome to evaluate these factors. FPAR products from the MODIS and SeaWiFS sensors, and the effects of single site vs. cross-site parameter optimization were tested with the CFLUX model. The SeaWiFs FPAR product showed greater dynamic range across sites and resulted in slightly reduced flux estimation errors relative to the MODIS product when using cross-site optimization. With site-specific parameter optimization, the flux model was effective in capturing seasonal and interannual variation in the carbon fluxes at these sites. The cross-site prediction errors were lower when using parameters from a cross-site optimization compared to parameter sets from optimization at single sites. These results support the practice of multisite optimization within a biome for parameterization of diagnostic carbon flux models.
Seasonal Gravity Field Variations from GRACE and Hydrological Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Hinderer, Jacques; Lemoine, Frank G.
2004-01-01
. Four global hydrological models covering the same period in 2002–2003 as the GRACE observations were investigated to for their mutual consistency in estimates of annual variation in terrestrial water storage and related temporal changes in gravity field. The hydrological models differ by a maximum of 2...... µGal or nearly 5 cm equivalent water storage in selected regions. Integrated over all land masses the standard deviation among the annual signal from the four hydrological models are 0.6 µGal equivalent to around 1.4 cm in equivalent water layer thickness. The estimated accuracy of the annual...
HOM study and parameter calculation of the TESLA cavity model
Zeng, Ri-Hua; Gerigk Frank; Wang Guang-Wei; Wegner Rolf; Liu Rong; Schuh Marcel
2010-01-01
The Superconducting Proton Linac (SPL) is the project for a superconducting, high current H-accelerator at CERN. To find dangerous higher order modes (HOMs) in the SPL superconducting cavities, simulation and analysis for the cavity model using simulation tools are necessary. The. existing TESLA 9-cell cavity geometry data have been used for the initial construction of the models in HFSS. Monopole, dipole and quadrupole modes have been obtained by applying different symmetry boundaries on various cavity models. In calculation, scripting language in HFSS was used to create scripts to automatically calculate the parameters of modes in these cavity models (these scripts are also available in other cavities with different cell numbers and geometric structures). The results calculated automatically are then compared with the values given in the TESLA paper. The optimized cavity model with the minimum error will be taken as the base for further simulation of the SPL cavities.
Variation of biometric parameters in corn cobs under the influence of nitrogen fertilization
Gigel, Prisecaru; Florin, Sala
2017-07-01
Biometric parameters as elements of productivity on corn cobs, along with plant density per unit area (ha) are essential in achieving production. The influence of differentiated fertilization with nitrogen was evaluated at the level of productivity elements on corn cobs, Andreea hybrid. Biometric parameters of the corn cobs (total length - L; usable length - l; uncoated length with corn kernels - lu; diameter at the base - Db, middle - Dm, and top of the corn cobs - Dt; corn cob weight - Cw, grain weight - Gw) were directly influenced by the doses of nitrogen. Regression analysis has facilitated the prediction of grain weight as the main element of productivity under different statistical certainty based on nitrogen doses (R2 = 0.962, pcorn cobs (R2 = 0.985, pcorn cobs (R2 = 0.996, pcorn cobs (R2 = 0.824, pcorn cobs (R2 = 0.807, pcorn kernels (R2 = 0.624, pcorn cobs (R2 = 0.384, p=0.015).
Variation of semen parameters in healthy medical students due to exam stress.
Lampiao, Fanuel
2009-12-01
This study was aimed at investigating semen parameters that vary most in samples of healthy donors undergoing stressful examination period. Samples were left to liquefy in an incubator at 37 degrees C, 5% CO2 for 30 minutes before volume was measured. Concentration and motility parameters were measured by means of computer assisted semen analysis (CASA) using Sperm Class Analyzer (Microptic S.L, Madrid, Spain). Sperm concentration was significantly decreased in samples donated close to the exam period as well as samples donated during the exam period when compared to samples donated at the beginning of the semester. Stress levels of donors might prove to be clinically relevant and important when designing experiment protocols.
[Age as source of variation in various parameters of 'delta sleep'].
Vergara, J M; Serrano, M; Brualla, J; Sáenz de Cabezón, A; López, J
1997-12-01
The clinic usefulness of a diagnostic test is in relationship to the precision with which measures the studied phenomenon. The lack of precision involve the reliability upon causing confounded results of the normal and diseased populations. Since the sleep varies in function of the age, to find sleep parameters that fit better to the changes that the aging produces in the sleep. Spectral analysis through the Fast Fourier Transformation of the ambulatory EEG of 28 healthy subjects. Maximum value of power (maximum depth) in a frequency of ended in a point of the sleep goes losing in a way specifies and systematical with the age. The variance accounted by this parameter is of the 87%, what, being tried to a phenomenon so variable as the sleep, supposes a interesting starting point to be applied to some pathologies in those which is presumed that the slow sleep (to which is attributed a paper in the cerebral restoration) is decreased.
Progressive Learning of Topic Modeling Parameters: A Visual Analytics Framework.
El-Assady, Mennatallah; Sevastjanova, Rita; Sperrle, Fabian; Keim, Daniel; Collins, Christopher
2018-01-01
Topic modeling algorithms are widely used to analyze the thematic composition of text corpora but remain difficult to interpret and adjust. Addressing these limitations, we present a modular visual analytics framework, tackling the understandability and adaptability of topic models through a user-driven reinforcement learning process which does not require a deep understanding of the underlying topic modeling algorithms. Given a document corpus, our approach initializes two algorithm configurations based on a parameter space analysis that enhances document separability. We abstract the model complexity in an interactive visual workspace for exploring the automatic matching results of two models, investigating topic summaries, analyzing parameter distributions, and reviewing documents. The main contribution of our work is an iterative decision-making technique in which users provide a document-based relevance feedback that allows the framework to converge to a user-endorsed topic distribution. We also report feedback from a two-stage study which shows that our technique results in topic model quality improvements on two independent measures.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vandana Jha
2017-01-01
Full Text Available This paper proposes an improved generalized method for evaluation of parameters, modeling, and simulation of photovoltaic modules. A new concept “Level of Improvement” has been proposed for evaluating unknown parameters of the nonlinear I-V equation of the single-diode model of PV module at any environmental condition, taking the manufacturer-specified data at Standard Test Conditions as inputs. The main contribution of the new concept is the improvement in the accuracy of values of evaluated parameters up to various levels and is based on mathematical equations of PV modules. The proposed evaluating method is implemented by MATLAB programming and, for demonstration, by using the values of parameters of the I-V equation obtained from programming results, a PV module model is build with MATLAB. The parameters evaluated by the proposed technique are validated with the datasheet values of six different commercially available PV modules (thin film, monocrystalline, and polycrystalline at Standard Test Conditions and Nominal Operating Cell Temperature Conditions. The module output characteristics generated by the proposed method are validated with experimental data of FS-270 PV module. The effects of variation of ideality factor and resistances on output characteristics are also studied. The superiority of the proposed technique is proved.
The definition of input parameters for modelling of energetic subsystems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ptacek M.
2013-06-01
Full Text Available This paper is a short review and a basic description of mathematical models of renewable energy sources which present individual investigated subsystems of a system created in Matlab/Simulink. It solves the physical and mathematical relationships of photovoltaic and wind energy sources that are often connected to the distribution networks. The fuel cell technology is much less connected to the distribution networks but it could be promising in the near future. Therefore, the paper informs about a new dynamic model of the low-temperature fuel cell subsystem, and the main input parameters are defined as well. Finally, the main evaluated and achieved graphic results for the suggested parameters and for all the individual subsystems mentioned above are shown.
The definition of input parameters for modelling of energetic subsystems
Ptacek, M.
2013-06-01
This paper is a short review and a basic description of mathematical models of renewable energy sources which present individual investigated subsystems of a system created in Matlab/Simulink. It solves the physical and mathematical relationships of photovoltaic and wind energy sources that are often connected to the distribution networks. The fuel cell technology is much less connected to the distribution networks but it could be promising in the near future. Therefore, the paper informs about a new dynamic model of the low-temperature fuel cell subsystem, and the main input parameters are defined as well. Finally, the main evaluated and achieved graphic results for the suggested parameters and for all the individual subsystems mentioned above are shown.
Propagation channel characterization, parameter estimation, and modeling for wireless communications
Yin, Xuefeng
2016-01-01
Thoroughly covering channel characteristics and parameters, this book provides the knowledge needed to design various wireless systems, such as cellular communication systems, RFID and ad hoc wireless communication systems. It gives a detailed introduction to aspects of channels before presenting the novel estimation and modelling techniques which can be used to achieve accurate models. To systematically guide readers through the topic, the book is organised in three distinct parts. The first part covers the fundamentals of the characterization of propagation channels, including the conventional single-input single-output (SISO) propagation channel characterization as well as its extension to multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) cases. Part two focuses on channel measurements and channel data post-processing. Wideband channel measurements are introduced, including the equipment, technology and advantages and disadvantages of different data acquisition schemes. The channel parameter estimation methods are ...
Empirical flow parameters : a tool for hydraulic model validity
Asquith, William H.; Burley, Thomas E.; Cleveland, Theodore G.
2013-01-01
The objectives of this project were (1) To determine and present from existing data in Texas, relations between observed stream flow, topographic slope, mean section velocity, and other hydraulic factors, to produce charts such as Figure 1 and to produce empirical distributions of the various flow parameters to provide a methodology to "check if model results are way off!"; (2) To produce a statistical regional tool to estimate mean velocity or other selected parameters for storm flows or other conditional discharges at ungauged locations (most bridge crossings) in Texas to provide a secondary way to compare such values to a conventional hydraulic modeling approach. (3.) To present ancillary values such as Froude number, stream power, Rosgen channel classification, sinuosity, and other selected characteristics (readily determinable from existing data) to provide additional information to engineers concerned with the hydraulic-soil-foundation component of transportation infrastructure.
Assessment of growth: variations according to references and growth parameters used.
Rolland-Cachera, Marie-Françoise; Péneau, Sandrine
2011-12-01
Numerous studies have investigated associations between early growth and future risk of obesity, but the methods used varied considerably. Different growth references or parameters can be considered. Growth references from France, the United States (the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention), the Netherlands, Belgium, and the United Kingdom were compared with World Health Organization (WHO) standards. For the first 3 mo of life, all references showed markedly lower values for weight, length, and body mass index (BMI) compared with WHO standards, but after the age of 6 mo references were generally higher than WHO standards. Compared with nonbreastfed infants, the growth of breastfed infants was generally closer to that of WHO standards. Because data in the WHO standards were collected on infants who were breastfed, the difference between references and WHO standards might be mainly attributable to feeding practices. Epidemiologic and clinical studies evaluated the consequences of using either WHO standards or national references and showed differences according to the reference used. Analyses of children's weight curves by physicians showed significant differences in the interpretation of child growth and therefore in the advice given to parents. Finally, the effect of using different growth parameters to predict future risk of obesity was examined and showed that weight and length gains may be good candidates to study future risks. In conclusion, because the reference or parameters used to assess growth have an important effect on the interpretation of growth, it is crucial to be aware of the consequences of the methods used in clinical or epidemiologic contexts.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Farkas, Balázs; Romano, Ilaria; Ceseracciu, Luca; Diaspro, Alberto; Brandi, Fernando; Beke, Szabolcs
2015-01-01
The effects of various fabrication parameters of our Mask Projection Excimer Laser StereoLithography (MPExSL) system were investigated. We demonstrate that laser parameters directly change the physical properties (stiffness, thermal degradation, and height/thickness) of the poly(propylene fumarate) (PFF) scaffold structures. The tested parameters were the number of pulses, fluence per pulse and laser repetition rate. We present a four-order tuning capability of MPExSL-fabricated structures' stiffness without altering the resin composition or using cumbersome post-treatment procedures. Thermogravimetric analysis and differential scanning calorimetry confirmed this tuning capability. Prototype-segmented scaffold designs are presented and analyzed to further expand the concept and exploit this in situ stiffness tuning capability of the scaffolds for tissue engineering and regenerative medicine applications. - Highlights: • Facile stiffness control of scaffolds is beneficial in tissue engineering. • Four-order tuning capability of structures' stiffness is presented. • Scaffold's stiffness can be tuned in four orders (4 MPa–4 GPa). • All scaffolds have been fabricated from the same polymer resin in a broad stiffness range
Bilinear models for inter- and intra-patient variation of the prostate
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jeong, Y; Radke, R J; Lovelock, D M
2010-01-01
We propose bilinear models for capturing and effectively decoupling the expected shape variations of an organ both across the patient population and within a specific patient. Bilinear models have been successfully introduced in other areas of computer vision, but they have rarely been used in medical imaging applications. Our particular interest is in modeling the shape variation of the prostate for potential use in radiation therapy treatment planning. Using a dataset of 204 prostate shapes contoured from CT imagery of 12 different patients, we build bilinear models and show that they can fit both training and testing shapes accurately. We also show how the bilinear model can adapt to a new patient using only a few example shapes, producing a patient-specific model that also reflects expected content variation learnt from a broader population. Finally, we evaluate the training and testing projection error, adaptation performance and image segmentation accuracy of the bilinear model compared to linear principal component analysis and hierarchical point distribution models with the same number of parameters.
Lumped-parameter Model of a Bucket Foundation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Lars; Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, Morten
2009-01-01
As an alternative to gravity footings or pile foundations, offshore wind turbines at shallow water can be placed on a bucket foundation. The present analysis concerns the development of consistent lumped-parameter models for this type of foundation. The aim is to formulate a computationally effic...... be disregarded without significant loss of accuracy. Finally, special attention is drawn to the influence of the skirt stiffness, i.e. whether the embedded part of the caisson is rigid or flexible....
Predictor model for seasonal variations in skid resistance, volume 1
Henry, J. J.; Saito, K.; Blackburn, R.
1984-04-01
Two models, utilizing data collected in 1979 and 1980, were developed to predict variations in skid resistance due to rainfall conditions, temperature effects, and time of the year. A generalized predictor model was developed from purely statistical considerations and a mechanistic model was developed from hypothesized mechanisms. This model may be utilized to estimate the skid resistance at any time in the season from a measurement made during the same season, or to adjust skid-resistance measurement made at any time during the season to the end-of-season level. The mechanistic model requires, in addition to the above inputs, two pavement properties describing the polishing characteristics of the aggregate and an estimate of the percent normalized gradient of the skid resistance. The application of these models is summarized.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hongshan Zhao
2012-05-01
Full Text Available Short-term solar irradiance forecasting (STSIF is of great significance for the optimal operation and power predication of grid-connected photovoltaic (PV plants. However, STSIF is very complex to handle due to the random and nonlinear characteristics of solar irradiance under changeable weather conditions. Artificial Neural Network (ANN is suitable for STSIF modeling and many research works on this topic are presented, but the conciseness and robustness of the existing models still need to be improved. After discussing the relation between weather variations and irradiance, the characteristics of the statistical feature parameters of irradiance under different weather conditions are figured out. A novel ANN model using statistical feature parameters (ANN-SFP for STSIF is proposed in this paper. The input vector is reconstructed with several statistical feature parameters of irradiance and ambient temperature. Thus sufficient information can be effectively extracted from relatively few inputs and the model complexity is reduced. The model structure is determined by cross-validation (CV, and the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm (LMA is used for the network training. Simulations are carried out to validate and compare the proposed model with the conventional ANN model using historical data series (ANN-HDS, and the results indicated that the forecast accuracy is obviously improved under variable weather conditions.
Li, Hong-tao; Wu, Qing-hong; Yuan, Jin; Xiao, Dong; Wang, Wan-shan; Zhang, Jia-ning; Zhang, Jian-ming; Li, Jin-ze; Gu, Wei-wang
2009-08-01
To analyze the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) D-loop region sequence variation in Tibet Mini-Pigs in relation to the blood parameters and provide the molecular genetic basis for developing new species of laboratory animals. The genomic DNA was extracted from the whole blood samples of 59 Tibet mini-pigs to amplifying the mtDNA D-loop for sequence analysis. Nine physiological and nine biochemical blood parameters of Tibet mini-pigs were measured . Based on the variation of the tandem repeat motif, the mtDNA D-loop region of Tibet mini-pigs was classified into two types, namely type A and B with the percentage of 57.6% and 42.4%, respectively, roughly matching the 3 transform sites (305, 500, 691) at the 5' end. In the 18 blood parameters, only red blood cell count showed significant differences between types A and (Ploop region, Tibet mini-pigs can be divided into two types that show a significant difference in red blood cell count.
Modeling Water Quality Parameters Using Data-driven Methods
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shima Soleimani
2017-02-01
Full Text Available Introduction: Surface water bodies are the most easily available water resources. Increase use and waste water withdrawal of surface water causes drastic changes in surface water quality. Water quality, importance as the most vulnerable and important water supply resources is absolutely clear. Unfortunately, in the recent years because of city population increase, economical improvement, and industrial product increase, entry of pollutants to water bodies has been increased. According to that water quality parameters express physical, chemical, and biological water features. So the importance of water quality monitoring is necessary more than before. Each of various uses of water, such as agriculture, drinking, industry, and aquaculture needs the water with a special quality. In the other hand, the exact estimation of concentration of water quality parameter is significant. Material and Methods: In this research, first two input variable models as selection methods (namely, correlation coefficient and principal component analysis were applied to select the model inputs. Data processing is consisting of three steps, (1 data considering, (2 identification of input data which have efficient on output data, and (3 selecting the training and testing data. Genetic Algorithm-Least Square Support Vector Regression (GA-LSSVR algorithm were developed to model the water quality parameters. In the LSSVR method is assumed that the relationship between input and output variables is nonlinear, but by using a nonlinear mapping relation can create a space which is named feature space in which relationship between input and output variables is defined linear. The developed algorithm is able to gain maximize the accuracy of the LSSVR method with auto LSSVR parameters. Genetic algorithm (GA is one of evolutionary algorithm which automatically can find the optimum coefficient of Least Square Support Vector Regression (LSSVR. The GA-LSSVR algorithm was employed to
A procedure for determining parameters of a simplified ligament model.
Barrett, Jeff M; Callaghan, Jack P
2018-01-03
A previous mathematical model of ligament force-generation treated their behavior as a population of collagen fibres arranged in parallel. When damage was ignored in this model, an expression for ligament force in terms of the deflection, x, effective stiffness, k, mean collagen slack length, μ, and the standard deviation of slack lengths, σ, was obtained. We present a simple three-step method for determining the three model parameters (k, μ, and σ) from force-deflection data: (1) determine the equation of the line in the linear region of this curve, its slope is k and its x -intercept is -μ; (2) interpolate the force-deflection data when x is -μ to obtain F 0 ; (3) calculate σ with the equation σ=2πF 0 /k. Results from this method were in good agreement to those obtained from a least-squares procedure on experimental data - all falling within 6%. Therefore, parameters obtained using the proposed method provide a systematic way of reporting ligament parameters, or for obtaining an initial guess for nonlinear least-squares. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Modelling spatial-temporal and coordinative parameters in swimming.
Seifert, L; Chollet, D
2009-07-01
This study modelled the changes in spatial-temporal and coordinative parameters through race paces in the four swimming strokes. The arm and leg phases in simultaneous strokes (butterfly and breaststroke) and the inter-arm phases in alternating strokes (crawl and backstroke) were identified by video analysis to calculate the time gaps between propulsive phases. The relationships among velocity, stroke rate, stroke length and coordination were modelled by polynomial regression. Twelve elite male swimmers swam at four race paces. Quadratic regression modelled the changes in spatial-temporal and coordinative parameters with velocity increases for all four strokes. First, the quadratic regression between coordination and velocity showed changes common to all four strokes. Notably, the time gaps between the key points defining the beginning and end of the stroke phases decreased with increases in velocity, which led to decreases in glide times and increases in the continuity between propulsive phases. Conjointly, the quadratic regression among stroke rate, stroke length and velocity was similar to the changes in coordination, suggesting that these parameters may influence coordination. The main practical application for coaches and scientists is that ineffective time gaps can be distinguished from those that simply reflect an individual swimmer's profile by monitoring the glide times within a stroke cycle. In the case of ineffective time gaps, targeted training could improve the swimmer's management of glide time.
Parameter Estimation and Model Validation of Nonlinear Dynamical Networks
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Abarbanel, Henry [Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States); Gill, Philip [Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States)
2015-03-31
In the performance period of this work under a DOE contract, the co-PIs, Philip Gill and Henry Abarbanel, developed new methods for statistical data assimilation for problems of DOE interest, including geophysical and biological problems. This included numerical optimization algorithms for variational principles, new parallel processing Monte Carlo routines for performing the path integrals of statistical data assimilation. These results have been summarized in the monograph: “Predicting the Future: Completing Models of Observed Complex Systems” by Henry Abarbanel, published by Spring-Verlag in June 2013. Additional results and details have appeared in the peer reviewed literature.
Menu variations for diabetes mellitus patients using Goal Programming model
Dhoruri, Atmini; Lestari, Dwi; Ratnasari, Eminugroho
2017-08-01
Diabetes mellitus (DM) was a chronic metabolic disease characterized by higher than normal blood glucose level (normal blood glucose level = = 80 -120 mg/dl). In this study, type 2 DM which mostly caused by unhealthy eating habits would be investigated. Related to eating habit, DM patients needed dietary menu planning with an extracare regarding their nutrients intake (energy, protein, fat and carbohydrate). Therefore, the measures taken were by organizing nutritious dietary menu for diabetes mellitus patients. Dietary menu with appropriate amount of nutrients was organized by considering the amount of calories, proteins, fats and carbohydrates. In this study, Goal Programming model was employed to determine optimal dietary menu variations for diabetes mellitus patients by paying attention to optimal expenses. According to the data obtained from hospitals in Yogyakarta, optimal menu variations would be analyzed by using Goal Programming model and would be completed by using LINGO computer program.
Modeling GPS satellite attitude variation for precise orbit determination
Kuang, D.; Rim, H. J.; Schutz, B. E.; Abusali, P. A. M.
1996-09-01
High precision geodetic applications of the Global Positioning System (GPS) require highly precise ephemerides of the GPS satellites. An accurate model for the non-gravitational forces on the GPS satellites is a key to high quality GPS orbit determination, especially in long arcs. In this paper the effect of the satellite solar panel orientation error is investigated. These effects are approximated by empirical functions to model the satellite attitude variation in long arc orbit fit. Experiments show that major part of the long arc GPS orbit errors can be accommodated by introducing a periodic variation of the satellite solar panel orientation with respect to the satellite-Sun direction, the desired direction for solar panel normal vector, with an amplitude of about 1 degree and with a frequency of once per orbit revolution.
Kim, Kyung Yong; Lee, Won-Chan
2017-01-01
This article provides a detailed description of three factors (specification of the ability distribution, numerical integration, and frame of reference for the item parameter estimates) that might affect the item parameter estimation of the three-parameter logistic model, and compares five item calibration methods, which are combinations of the…
Local sensitivity analysis of a distributed parameters water quality model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pastres, R.; Franco, D.; Pecenik, G.; Solidoro, C.; Dejak, C.
1997-01-01
A local sensitivity analysis is presented of a 1D water-quality reaction-diffusion model. The model describes the seasonal evolution of one of the deepest channels of the lagoon of Venice, that is affected by nutrient loads from the industrial area and heat emission from a power plant. Its state variables are: water temperature, concentrations of reduced and oxidized nitrogen, Reactive Phosphorous (RP), phytoplankton, and zooplankton densities, Dissolved Oxygen (DO) and Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD). Attention has been focused on the identifiability and the ranking of the parameters related to primary production in different mixing conditions
Surrogate based approaches to parameter inference in ocean models
Knio, Omar
2016-01-06
This talk discusses the inference of physical parameters using model surrogates. Attention is focused on the use of sampling schemes to build suitable representations of the dependence of the model response on uncertain input data. Non-intrusive spectral projections and regularized regressions are used for this purpose. A Bayesian inference formalism is then applied to update the uncertain inputs based on available measurements or observations. To perform the update, we consider two alternative approaches, based on the application of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods or of adjoint-based optimization techniques. We outline the implementation of these techniques to infer dependence of wind drag, bottom drag, and internal mixing coefficients.
Information Theoretic Tools for Parameter Fitting in Coarse Grained Models
Kalligiannaki, Evangelia
2015-01-07
We study the application of information theoretic tools for model reduction in the case of systems driven by stochastic dynamics out of equilibrium. The model/dimension reduction is considered by proposing parametrized coarse grained dynamics and finding the optimal parameter set for which the relative entropy rate with respect to the atomistic dynamics is minimized. The minimization problem leads to a generalization of the force matching methods to non equilibrium systems. A multiplicative noise example reveals the importance of the diffusion coefficient in the optimization problem.
A Total Variation Model Based on the Strictly Convex Modification for Image Denoising
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Boying Wu
2014-01-01
Full Text Available We propose a strictly convex functional in which the regular term consists of the total variation term and an adaptive logarithm based convex modification term. We prove the existence and uniqueness of the minimizer for the proposed variational problem. The existence, uniqueness, and long-time behavior of the solution of the associated evolution system is also established. Finally, we present experimental results to illustrate the effectiveness of the model in noise reduction, and a comparison is made in relation to the more classical methods of the traditional total variation (TV, the Perona-Malik (PM, and the more recent D-α-PM method. Additional distinction from the other methods is that the parameters, for manual manipulation, in the proposed algorithm are reduced to basically only one.
Moolenaar, H.E.; Selten, F.M.
2004-01-01
Climate models contain numerous parameters for which the numeric values are uncertain. In the context of climate simulation and prediction, a relevant question is what range of climate outcomes is possible given the range of parameter uncertainties. Which parameter perturbation changes the climate
Comparison of parameter estimation algorithms in hydrological modelling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Blasone, Roberta-Serena; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan
2006-01-01
Local search methods have been applied successfully in calibration of simple groundwater models, but might fail in locating the optimum for models of increased complexity, due to the more complex shape of the response surface. Global search algorithms have been demonstrated to perform well...... for these types of models, although at a more expensive computational cost. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the performance of a global and a local parameter optimization algorithm, respectively, the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) algorithm and the gradient-based Gauss......-Marquardt-Levenberg algorithm (implemented in the PEST software), when applied to a steady-state and a transient groundwater model. The results show that PEST can have severe problems in locating the global optimum and in being trapped in local regions of attractions. The global SCE procedure is, in general, more effective...
Modeling seasonal variation of hip fracture in Montreal, Canada.
Modarres, Reza; Ouarda, Taha B M J; Vanasse, Alain; Orzanco, Maria Gabriela; Gosselin, Pierre
2012-04-01
The investigation of the association of the climate variables with hip fracture incidences is important in social health issues. This study examined and modeled the seasonal variation of monthly population based hip fracture rate (HFr) time series. The seasonal ARIMA time series modeling approach is used to model monthly HFr incidences time series of female and male patients of the ages 40-74 and 75+ of Montreal, Québec province, Canada, in the period of 1993-2004. The correlation coefficients between meteorological variables such as temperature, snow depth, rainfall depth and day length and HFr are significant. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test for trend assessment and the nonparametric Levene's test and Wilcoxon's test for checking the difference of HFr before and after change point are also used. The seasonality in HFr indicated sharp difference between winter and summer time. The trend assessment showed decreasing trends in HFr of female and male groups. The nonparametric test also indicated a significant change of the mean HFr. A seasonal ARIMA model was applied for HFr time series without trend and a time trend ARIMA model (TT-ARIMA) was developed and fitted to HFr time series with a significant trend. The multi criteria evaluation showed the adequacy of SARIMA and TT-ARIMA models for modeling seasonal hip fracture time series with and without significant trend. In the time series analysis of HFr of the Montreal region, the effects of the seasonal variation of climate variables on hip fracture are clear. The Seasonal ARIMA model is useful for modeling HFr time series without trend. However, for time series with significant trend, the TT-ARIMA model should be applied for modeling HFr time series. Copyright Â© 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Gerçek, D.; Güven, İ. T.; Oktay, İ. Ç.
2016-06-01
Along with urbanization, sealing of vegetated land and evaporation surfaces by impermeable materials, lead to changes in urban climate. This phenomenon is observed as temperatures several degrees higher in densely urbanized areas compared to the rural land at the urban fringe particularly at nights, so-called Urban Heat Island. Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect is related with urban form, pattern and building materials so far as it is associated with meteorological conditions, air pollution, excess heat from cooling. UHI effect has negative influences on human health, as well as other environmental problems such as higher energy demand, air pollution, and water shortage. Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect has long been studied by observations of air temperature from thermometers. However, with the advent and proliferation of remote sensing technology, synoptic coverage and better representations of spatial variation of surface temperature became possible. This has opened new avenues for the observation capabilities and research of UHIs. In this study, "UHI effect and its relation to factors that cause it" is explored for İzmit city which has been subject to excess urbanization and industrialization during the past decades. Spatial distribution and variation of UHI effect in İzmit is analysed using Landsat 8 and ASTER day & night images of 2015 summer. Surface temperature data derived from thermal bands of the images were analysed for UHI effect. Higher temperatures were classified into 4 grades of UHIs and mapped both for day and night. Inadequate urban form, pattern, density, high buildings and paved surfaces at the expanse of soil ground and vegetation cover are the main factors that cause microclimates giving rise to spatial variations in temperatures across cities. These factors quantified as land surface/cover parameters for the study include vegetation index (NDVI), imperviousness (NDISI), albedo, solar insolation, Sky View Factor (SVF), building envelope
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
D. Gerçek
2016-06-01
Full Text Available Along with urbanization, sealing of vegetated land and evaporation surfaces by impermeable materials, lead to changes in urban climate. This phenomenon is observed as temperatures several degrees higher in densely urbanized areas compared to the rural land at the urban fringe particularly at nights, so-called Urban Heat Island. Urban Heat Island (UHI effect is related with urban form, pattern and building materials so far as it is associated with meteorological conditions, air pollution, excess heat from cooling. UHI effect has negative influences on human health, as well as other environmental problems such as higher energy demand, air pollution, and water shortage. Urban Heat Island (UHI effect has long been studied by observations of air temperature from thermometers. However, with the advent and proliferation of remote sensing technology, synoptic coverage and better representations of spatial variation of surface temperature became possible. This has opened new avenues for the observation capabilities and research of UHIs. In this study, "UHI effect and its relation to factors that cause it" is explored for İzmit city which has been subject to excess urbanization and industrialization during the past decades. Spatial distribution and variation of UHI effect in İzmit is analysed using Landsat 8 and ASTER day & night images of 2015 summer. Surface temperature data derived from thermal bands of the images were analysed for UHI effect. Higher temperatures were classified into 4 grades of UHIs and mapped both for day and night. Inadequate urban form, pattern, density, high buildings and paved surfaces at the expanse of soil ground and vegetation cover are the main factors that cause microclimates giving rise to spatial variations in temperatures across cities. These factors quantified as land surface/cover parameters for the study include vegetation index (NDVI, imperviousness (NDISI, albedo, solar insolation, Sky View Factor (SVF, building
Flare parameters inferred from a 3D loop model database
Cuambe, Valente A.; Costa, J. E. R.; Simões, P. J. A.
2018-04-01
We developed a database of pre-calculated flare images and spectra exploring a set of parameters which describe the physical characteristics of coronal loops and accelerated electron distribution. Due to the large number of parameters involved in describing the geometry and the flaring atmosphere in the model used (Costa et al. 2013), we built a large database of models (˜250 000) to facilitate the flare analysis. The geometry and characteristics of non-thermal electrons are defined on a discrete grid with spatial resolution greater than 4 arcsec. The database was constructed based on general properties of known solar flares and convolved with instrumental resolution to replicate the observations from the Nobeyama radio polarimeter (NoRP) spectra and Nobeyama radio-heliograph (NoRH) brightness maps. Observed spectra and brightness distribution maps are easily compared with the modelled spectra and images in the database, indicating a possible range of solutions. The parameter search efficiency in this finite database is discussed. Eight out of ten parameters analysed for one thousand simulated flare searches were recovered with a relative error of less than 20 per cent on average. In addition, from the analysis of the observed correlation between NoRH flare sizes and intensities at 17 GHz, some statistical properties were derived. From these statistics the energy spectral index was found to be δ ˜ 3, with non-thermal electron densities showing a peak distribution ⪅107 cm-3, and Bphotosphere ⪆2000 G. Some bias for larger loops with heights as great as ˜2.6 × 109 cm, and looptop events were noted. An excellent match of the spectrum and the brightness distribution at 17 and 34 GHz of the 2002 May 31 flare, is presented as well.
Modeling spatial variation in avian survival and residency probabilities
Saracco, James F.; Royle, J. Andrew; DeSante, David F.; Gardner, Beth
2010-01-01
The importance of understanding spatial variation in processes driving animal population dynamics is widely recognized. Yet little attention has been paid to spatial modeling of vital rates. Here we describe a hierarchical spatial autoregressive model to provide spatially explicit year-specific estimates of apparent survival (phi) and residency (pi) probabilities from capture-recapture data. We apply the model to data collected on a declining bird species, Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), as part of a broad-scale bird-banding network, the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program. The Wood Thrush analysis showed variability in both phi and pi among years and across space. Spatial heterogeneity in residency probability was particularly striking, suggesting the importance of understanding the role of transients in local populations. We found broad-scale spatial patterning in Wood Thrush phi and pi that lend insight into population trends and can direct conservation and research. The spatial model developed here represents a significant advance over approaches to investigating spatial pattern in vital rates that aggregate data at coarse spatial scales and do not explicitly incorporate spatial information in the model. Further development and application of hierarchical capture-recapture models offers the opportunity to more fully investigate spatiotemporal variation in the processes that drive population changes.
Parameter and uncertainty estimation for mechanistic, spatially explicit epidemiological models
Finger, Flavio; Schaefli, Bettina; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Rinaldo, Andrea
2014-05-01
Epidemiological models can be a crucially important tool for decision-making during disease outbreaks. The range of possible applications spans from real-time forecasting and allocation of health-care resources to testing alternative intervention mechanisms such as vaccines, antibiotics or the improvement of sanitary conditions. Our spatially explicit, mechanistic models for cholera epidemics have been successfully applied to several epidemics including, the one that struck Haiti in late 2010 and is still ongoing. Calibration and parameter estimation of such models represents a major challenge because of properties unusual in traditional geoscientific domains such as hydrology. Firstly, the epidemiological data available might be subject to high uncertainties due to error-prone diagnosis as well as manual (and possibly incomplete) data collection. Secondly, long-term time-series of epidemiological data are often unavailable. Finally, the spatially explicit character of the models requires the comparison of several time-series of model outputs with their real-world counterparts, which calls for an appropriate weighting scheme. It follows that the usual assumption of a homoscedastic Gaussian error distribution, used in combination with classical calibration techniques based on Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, is likely to be violated, whereas the construction of an appropriate formal likelihood function seems close to impossible. Alternative calibration methods, which allow for accurate estimation of total model uncertainty, particularly regarding the envisaged use of the models for decision-making, are thus needed. Here we present the most recent developments regarding methods for parameter and uncertainty estimation to be used with our mechanistic, spatially explicit models for cholera epidemics, based on informal measures of goodness of fit.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Wang, Z.; Lu, K.; Ye, Y.
2011-01-01
To achieve better performance of sensorless control of PMSM, a precise and stable estimation of rotor position and speed is required. Several parameter uncertainties and variable measurement errors may lead to estimation error, such as resistance and inductance variations due to temperature...... and flux saturation, current and voltage errors due to measurement uncertainties, and signal delay caused by hardwares. This paper reveals some inherent principles for the performance of the back-EMF based sensorless algorithm embedded in a surface mounted PMSM system adapting vector control strategy...
Choi, Y.; Vadrevu, K. P.; Vay, S. A.; Woo, J.
2006-12-01
North American terrestrial ecosystems are major sources and sinks of carbon. Precise measurement of atmospheric CO2 concentrations plays an important role in the development and testing of carbon cycle models quantifying the influence of terrestrial CO2 exchange on the North American carbon budget. During the summer 2004 Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment North America (INTEX-NA) campaign, regional scale in-situ measurements of atmospheric CO2 were made from the NASA DC-8 affording the opportunity to explore how land surface heterogeneity relates to the airborne observations utilizing remote-sensing data products and GIS-based methods. These 1 Hz data reveal the seasonal biospheric uptake of CO2 over portions of the U.S. continent, especially east of 90°W below 2 km, compared to higher mixing ratios over water as well as within the upper troposphere where well-mixed, aged air masses were sampled. In this study, we use several remote sensing derived biophysical parameters from the LANDSAT, NOAA AVHRR, and MODIS sensors to specify spatiotemporal patterns of land use cover and vegetation characteristics for linking the airborne measurements of CO2 data with terrestrial sources of carbon. Also, CO2 flux footprint outputs from a 3-D Lagrangian atmospheric model have been integrated with satellite remote sensing data to infer CO2 variations across heterogeneous landscapes. In examining the landscape mosaic utilizing these available tools, preliminary results suggest that the lowest CO2 mixing ratios observed during INTEX-NA were over agricultural fields in Illinois dominated by corn then secondarily soybean crops. Low CO2 concentrations are attributable to sampling during the peak growing season over such C4 plants as corn having a higher photosynthetic rate via the C4-dicarboxylic acid pathway of carbon fixation compared to C3 plants such as soybeans. In addition to LANDSAT derived land cover data, results from comparisons of the airborne CO2 observations
Modelling rotational and cyclical spectral solar irradiance variations
Unruh, Yvonne
Solar irradiance changes are highly wavelength dependent: solar-cycle variations in the UV can be on the order of tens of percent, while changes in the visible are typically only of the order of one or two permille. With the launch of a number of instruments to measure spectral solar irradiance, we are now for a first time in a good position to explore the changing solar irradiance over a large range of wavelengths and to test our irradiance models as well as some of their underlying assumptions. I will introduce some of the current modelling approaches and present model-data comparisons, using the SATIRE irradiance model and SORCE/SIM measurements as an example. I will conclude by highlighting a number of outstanding questions regarding the modelling of spectral irradiance and current approaches to address these.
Pignon, Baptiste; Sobotka, Vincent; Boyard, Nicolas; Delaunay, Didier
2017-10-01
Two different analytical models were presented to determine cycle parameters of thermoplastics injection process. The aim of these models was to provide quickly a first set of data for mold temperature and cooling time. The first model is specific to amorphous polymers and the second one is dedicated to semi-crystalline polymers taking the crystallization into account. In both cases, the nature of the contact between the polymer and the mold could be considered as perfect or not (thermal contact resistance was considered). Results from models are compared with experimental data obtained with an instrumented mold for an acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) and a polypropylene (PP). Good agreements were obtained for mold temperature variation and for heat flux. In the case of the PP, the analytical crystallization times were compared with those given by a coupled model between heat transfer and crystallization kinetics.
A review of distributed parameter groundwater management modeling methods
Gorelick, Steven M.
1983-01-01
Models which solve the governing groundwater flow or solute transport equations in conjunction with optimization techniques, such as linear and quadratic programing, are powerful aquifer management tools. Groundwater management models fall in two general categories: hydraulics or policy evaluation and water allocation. Groundwater hydraulic management models enable the determination of optimal locations and pumping rates of numerous wells under a variety of restrictions placed upon local drawdown, hydraulic gradients, and water production targets. Groundwater policy evaluation and allocation models can be used to study the influence upon regional groundwater use of institutional policies such as taxes and quotas. Furthermore, fairly complex groundwater-surface water allocation problems can be handled using system decomposition and multilevel optimization. Experience from the few real world applications of groundwater optimization-management techniques is summarized. Classified separately are methods for groundwater quality management aimed at optimal waste disposal in the subsurface. This classification is composed of steady state and transient management models that determine disposal patterns in such a way that water quality is protected at supply locations. Classes of research missing from the literature are groundwater quality management models involving nonlinear constraints, models which join groundwater hydraulic and quality simulations with political-economic management considerations, and management models that include parameter uncertainty.
Small velocity and finite temperature variations in kinetic relaxation models
Markowich, Peter
2010-01-01
A small Knuden number analysis of a kinetic equation in the diffusive scaling is performed. The collision kernel is of BGK type with a general local Gibbs state. Assuming that the flow velocity is of the order of the Knudsen number, a Hilbert expansion yields a macroscopic model with finite temperature variations, whose complexity lies in between the hydrodynamic and the energy-transport equations. Its mathematical structure is explored and macroscopic models for specific examples of the global Gibbs state are presented. © American Institute of Mathematical Sciences.
DeLong, John P; Gibert, Jean P
2016-02-01
Heritable trait variation is a central and necessary ingredient of evolution. Trait variation also directly affects ecological processes, generating a clear link between evolutionary and ecological dynamics. Despite the changes in variation that occur through selection, drift, mutation, and recombination, current eco-evolutionary models usually fail to track how variation changes through time. Moreover, eco-evolutionary models assume fitness functions for each trait and each ecological context, which often do not have empirical validation. We introduce a new type of model, Gillespie eco-evolutionary models (GEMs), that resolves these concerns by tracking distributions of traits through time as eco-evolutionary dynamics progress. This is done by allowing change to be driven by the direct fitness consequences of model parameters within the context of the underlying ecological model, without having to assume a particular fitness function. GEMs work by adding a trait distribution component to the standard Gillespie algorithm - an approach that models stochastic systems in nature that are typically approximated through ordinary differential equations. We illustrate GEMs with the Rosenzweig-MacArthur consumer-resource model. We show not only how heritable trait variation fuels trait evolution and influences eco-evolutionary dynamics, but also how the erosion of variation through time may hinder eco-evolutionary dynamics in the long run. GEMs can be developed for any parameter in any ordinary differential equation model and, furthermore, can enable modeling of multiple interacting traits at the same time. We expect GEMs will open the door to a new direction in eco-evolutionary and evolutionary modeling by removing long-standing modeling barriers, simplifying the link between traits, fitness, and dynamics, and expanding eco-evolutionary treatment of a greater diversity of ecological interactions. These factors make GEMs much more than a modeling advance, but an important
Some notes on unobserved parameters (frailties) in reliability modeling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cha, Ji Hwan; Finkelstein, Maxim
2014-01-01
Unobserved random quantities (frailties) often appear in various reliability problems especially when dealing with the failure rates of items from heterogeneous populations. As the failure rate is a conditional characteristic, the distributions of these random quantities, similar to Bayesian approaches, are updated in accordance with the corresponding survival information. At some instances, apart from a statistical meaning, frailties can have also useful interpretations describing the underlying lifetime model. We discuss and clarify these issues in reliability context and present and analyze several meaningful examples. We consider the proportional hazards model with a random factor; the stress–strength model, where the unobserved strength of a system can be viewed as frailty; a parallel system with a random number of components and, finally, the first passage time problem for the Wiener process with random parameters. - Highlights: • We discuss and clarify the notion of frailty in reliability context and present and analyze several meaningful examples. • The paper provides a new insight and general perspective on reliability models with unobserved parameters. • The main message of the paper is well illustrated by several meaningful examples and emphasized by detailed discussion
Hydrological Modelling and Parameter Identification for Green Roof
Lo, W.; Tung, C.
2012-12-01
Green roofs, a multilayered system covered by plants, can be used to replace traditional concrete roofs as one of various measures to mitigate the increasing stormwater runoff in the urban environment. Moreover, facing the high uncertainty of the climate change, the present engineering method as adaptation may be regarded as improper measurements; reversely, green roofs are unregretful and flexible, and thus are rather important and suitable. The related technology has been developed for several years and the researches evaluating the stormwater reduction performance of green roofs are ongoing prosperously. Many European counties, cities in the U.S., and other local governments incorporate green roof into the stormwater control policy. Therefore, in terms of stormwater management, it is necessary to develop a robust hydrologic model to quantify the efficacy of green roofs over different types of designs and environmental conditions. In this research, a physical based hydrologic model is proposed to simulate water flowing process in the green roof system. In particular, the model adopts the concept of water balance, bringing a relatively simple and intuitive idea. Also, the research compares the two methods in the surface water balance calculation. One is based on Green-Ampt equation, and the other is under the SCS curve number calculation. A green roof experiment is designed to collect weather data and water discharge. Then, the proposed model is verified with these observed data; furthermore, the parameters using in the model are calibrated to find appropriate values in the green roof hydrologic simulation. This research proposes a simple physical based hydrologic model and the measures to determine parameters for the model.
Variations of some blood parameters in rabbit reared under different environmental conditions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Abbatangelo
2010-01-01
Full Text Available High environmental temperature induces physiological stress in rabbits leading to production losses, also because of their quite poor thermoregulation ability. Some consequences of heat stress affect digestive system functions, with impaired appetite, growth and feed conversion, but also with increased disease incidence. These effects can also reflect on the levels of some blood metabolites. Relatively few experimental works are available on the effects of high environmental temperature on the rabbit metabolic profile reared in commercial farms. The aim of this study was to study, in separate experiments, the effects of “fresh” spring and of “hot” summer temperatures on rabbits performance with particular attention to the behaviour of some metabolic parameters and of some aspects of the functionality of the digestive system.
EXPERIMENTAL STUDY ON THE VARIATION OF DEGRADED SILICON SOLAR CELLS PARAMETER
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
DAVUD MOSTAFA TOBNAGHI
2017-09-01
Full Text Available In the lifetime and under ordinary working conditions, solar cells prone to the effects of aging and their electrical parameters are degrading continually. In this paper, to simulate and accelerate the effects of aging, solar cells were exposed to the different doses of gamma radiation, since gamma radiation and aging produces similar effects in semiconducting devices. The current-voltage characteristics and spectral photo current of mono-crystalline solar cells were studied before and after the gamma irradiation. Experimental results showed that the gamma radiation causes a significant Reduction in the short circuit current (Isc and efficiency (η while the open circuit voltage (Voc is slightly reduced. The spectral photo current shows that, by increasing irradiation dose, reducing the current occurred at lower wavelengths and defects is mainly inflicted to region close to the surface of solar cells. Obtained results could lead to novel designs of silicon solar cells with purpose of increasing their possible applications.
Dheenan, P. S.; Jha, Dilip Kumar; Vinithkumar, N. V.; Ponmalar, A. Angelin; Venkateshwaran, P.; Kirubagaran, R.
2014-01-01
The purpose of this study was to determine the concentration, distribution of bacteria and physicochemical property of surface seawater in Rangat Bay, Middle Andaman, Andaman Islands (India). The bay experiences tidal variations. Perhaps physicochemical properties of seawater in Rangat Bay were found not to vary significantly. The concentration of faecal streptococci was high (2.2 × 103 CFU/100 mL) at creek and harbour area, whereas total coliforms were high (7.0 × 102 CFU/100 mL) at mangrove area. Similarly, total heterotrophic bacterial concentration was high (5.92 × 104 CFU/100 mL) in mangrove and harbour area. The Vibrio cholerae and Vibrio parahaemolyticus concentration was high (4.2 × 104 CFU/100 mL and 9 × 103 CFU/100 mL) at open sea. Cluster analysis showed grouping of stations in different tidal periods. The spatial maps clearly depicted the bacterial concentration pattern in the bay. The combined approach of multivariate analysis and spatial mapping techniques was proved to be useful in the current study.
Relation of geomagnetic activity index variations with parameters of interplanetary scintillations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vlasov, V.I.; Shishov, V.I.; Shishova, T.D.
1985-01-01
A correlation between the Asub(p)-index of geomagnetic activity, index of interplanetary scintillations and solar wind velocity, has been considered depending on the spatial position of the interplanetary plasma (IPP) regions under study. It is shown, that the scintillation index can be used to forecast the geomagnetic activity, whereas the solar wind velocity can not be used for the purpose. Heliolongitudinal dependence of geoeffectiveness of IPP sreading perturbations agrees well with their structure in the heliolongitudinal cross section (and, on the whole, with the angular structure and direction of IPP perturbation spread). To use interplanetary scintillations in forecasting the geomagnetic activity (on the level of correlation not below 0.5), the angular distance of the investigated IPP regions relative to the Sun-Earth line on the average should not exceed 30-40 deg. The time of delay between the moments of observation of variations in the scintillation index the time of passage of the corresponding heliocentric distances at an average rate of the interplanetary perturbation spread approximately 500 km/s
Joint modeling of cell and nuclear shape variation
Johnson, Gregory R.; Buck, Taraz E.; Sullivan, Devin P.; Rohde, Gustavo K.; Murphy, Robert F.
2015-01-01
Modeling cell shape variation is critical to our understanding of cell biology. Previous work has demonstrated the utility of nonrigid image registration methods for the construction of nonparametric nuclear shape models in which pairwise deformation distances are measured between all shapes and are embedded into a low-dimensional shape space. Using these methods, we explore the relationship between cell shape and nuclear shape. We find that these are frequently dependent on each other and use this as the motivation for the development of combined cell and nuclear shape space models, extending nonparametric cell representations to multiple-component three-dimensional cellular shapes and identifying modes of joint shape variation. We learn a first-order dynamics model to predict cell and nuclear shapes, given shapes at a previous time point. We use this to determine the effects of endogenous protein tags or drugs on the shape dynamics of cell lines and show that tagged C1QBP reduces the correlation between cell and nuclear shape. To reduce the computational cost of learning these models, we demonstrate the ability to reconstruct shape spaces using a fraction of computed pairwise distances. The open-source tools provide a powerful basis for future studies of the molecular basis of cell organization. PMID:26354424
Modelling Technical and Economic Parameters in Selection of Manufacturing Devices
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Naqib Daneshjo
2017-11-01
Full Text Available Sustainable science and technology development is also conditioned by continuous development of means of production which have a key role in structure of each production system. Mechanical nature of the means of production is complemented by controlling and electronic devices in context of intelligent industry. A selection of production machines for a technological process or technological project has so far been practically resolved, often only intuitively. With regard to increasing intelligence, the number of variable parameters that have to be considered when choosing a production device is also increasing. It is necessary to use computing techniques and decision making methods according to heuristic methods and more precise methodological procedures during the selection. The authors present an innovative model for optimization of technical and economic parameters in the selection of manufacturing devices for industry 4.0.
Paliwal, Manas; Kang, Dae Hoon; Essadiqi, Elhachmi; Jung, In-Ho
2014-07-01
A systematic experimental investigation on microsegregation and second phase fraction of Mg-Al binary alloys (3, 6, and 9 wt pct Al) has been carried out over a wide range of cooling rates (0.05 to 700 K/s) by employing various casting techniques. In order to explain the experimental results, a solidification model that takes into account dendrite tip undercooling, eutectic undercooling, solute back diffusion, and secondary dendrite arm coarsening was also developed in dynamic linkage with an accurate thermodynamic database. From the experimental data and solidification model, it was found that the second phase fraction in the solidified microstructure is not determined only by cooling rate but varied independently with thermal gradient and solidification velocity. Lastly, the second phase fraction maps for Mg-Al alloys were calculated from the solidification model.
Dynamic systems models new methods of parameter and state estimation
2016-01-01
This monograph is an exposition of a novel method for solving inverse problems, a method of parameter estimation for time series data collected from simulations of real experiments. These time series might be generated by measuring the dynamics of aircraft in flight, by the function of a hidden Markov model used in bioinformatics or speech recognition or when analyzing the dynamics of asset pricing provided by the nonlinear models of financial mathematics. Dynamic Systems Models demonstrates the use of algorithms based on polynomial approximation which have weaker requirements than already-popular iterative methods. Specifically, they do not require a first approximation of a root vector and they allow non-differentiable elements in the vector functions being approximated. The text covers all the points necessary for the understanding and use of polynomial approximation from the mathematical fundamentals, through algorithm development to the application of the method in, for instance, aeroplane flight dynamic...
Parameter Estimation for a Class of Lifetime Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xinyang Ji
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Our purpose in this paper is to present a better method of parametric estimation for a bivariate nonlinear regression model, which takes the performance indicator of rubber aging as the dependent variable and time and temperature as the independent variables. We point out that the commonly used two-step method (TSM, which splits the model and estimate parameters separately, has limitation. Instead, we apply the Marquardt’s method (MM to implement parametric estimation directly for the model and compare these two methods of parametric estimation by random simulation. Our results show that MM has better effect of data fitting, more reasonable parametric estimates, and smaller prediction error compared with TSM.
Stochastic modeling of interannual variation of hydrologic variables
Dralle, David; Karst, Nathaniel; Müller, Marc; Vico, Giulia; Thompson, Sally E.
2017-07-01
Quantifying the interannual variability of hydrologic variables (such as annual flow volumes, and solute or sediment loads) is a central challenge in hydrologic modeling. Annual or seasonal hydrologic variables are themselves the integral of instantaneous variations and can be well approximated as an aggregate sum of the daily variable. Process-based, probabilistic techniques are available to describe the stochastic structure of daily flow, yet estimating interannual variations in the corresponding aggregated variable requires consideration of the autocorrelation structure of the flow time series. Here we present a method based on a probabilistic streamflow description to obtain the interannual variability of flow-derived variables. The results provide insight into the mechanistic genesis of interannual variability of hydrologic processes. Such clarification can assist in the characterization of ecosystem risk and uncertainty in water resources management. We demonstrate two applications, one quantifying seasonal flow variability and the other quantifying net suspended sediment export.
Plant uptake of cadmium as affected by variation in sorption parameters.
Boekhold, A.E.; Zee, van der S.E.A.T.M.
1990-01-01
The effect of accumulation of cadmium in the topsoil on cadmium contents in crops is evaluated for field scale situations, using a model that links cadmium input, plant uptake, and leaching to cadmium accumulation in the rootzone. Measurements of pH and organic matter content, which regulate
Humbird, Kelli; Peterson, J. Luc; Brandon, Scott; Field, John; Nora, Ryan; Spears, Brian
2016-10-01
Next-generation supercomputer architecture and in-transit data analysis have been used to create a large collection of 2-D ICF capsule implosion simulations. The database includes metrics for approximately 60,000 implosions, with x-ray images and detailed physics parameters available for over 20,000 simulations. To map and explore this large database, surrogate models for numerous quantities of interest are built using supervised machine learning algorithms. Response surfaces constructed using the predictive capabilities of the surrogates allow for continuous exploration of parameter space without requiring additional simulations. High performing regions of the input space are identified to guide the design of future experiments. In particular, a model for the yield built using a random forest regression algorithm has a cross validation score of 94.3% and is consistently conservative for high yield predictions. The model is used to search for robust volumes of parameter space where high yields are expected, even given variations in other input parameters. Surrogates for additional quantities of interest relevant to ignition are used to further characterize the high yield regions. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344, Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC. LLNL-ABS-697277.
Local overfishing may be avoided by examining parameters of a spatio-temporal model.
Carson, Stuart; Shackell, Nancy; Mills Flemming, Joanna
2017-01-01
Spatial erosion of stock structure through local overfishing can lead to stock collapse because fish often prefer certain locations, and fisheries tend to focus on those locations. Fishery managers are challenged to maintain the integrity of the entire stock and require scientific approaches that provide them with sound advice. Here we propose a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal modelling framework for fish abundance data to estimate key parameters that define spatial stock structure: persistence (similarity of spatial structure over time), connectivity (coherence of temporal pattern over space), and spatial variance (variation across the seascape). The consideration of these spatial parameters in the stock assessment process can help identify the erosion of structure and assist in preventing local overfishing. We use Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in eastern Canada as a case study an examine the behaviour of these parameters from the height of the fishery through its collapse. We identify clear signals in parameter behaviour under circumstances of destructive stock erosion as well as for recovery of spatial structure even when combined with a non-recovery in abundance. Further, our model reveals the spatial pattern of areas of high and low density persists over the 41 years of available data and identifies the remnant patches. Models of this sort are crucial to recovery plans if we are to identify and protect remaining sources of recolonization for Atlantic cod. Our method is immediately applicable to other exploited species.
Liu, Y. R.; Li, Y. P.; Huang, G. H.; Zhang, J. L.; Fan, Y. R.
2017-10-01
In this study, a Bayesian-based multilevel factorial analysis (BMFA) method is developed to assess parameter uncertainties and their effects on hydrological model responses. In BMFA, Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm is employed to approximate the posterior distributions of model parameters with Bayesian inference; factorial analysis (FA) technique is used for measuring the specific variations of hydrological responses in terms of posterior distributions to investigate the individual and interactive effects of parameters on model outputs. BMFA is then applied to a case study of the Jinghe River watershed in the Loess Plateau of China to display its validity and applicability. The uncertainties of four sensitive parameters, including soil conservation service runoff curve number to moisture condition II (CN2), soil hydraulic conductivity (SOL_K), plant available water capacity (SOL_AWC), and soil depth (SOL_Z), are investigated. Results reveal that (i) CN2 has positive effect on peak flow, implying that the concentrated rainfall during rainy season can cause infiltration-excess surface flow, which is an considerable contributor to peak flow in this watershed; (ii) SOL_K has positive effect on average flow, implying that the widely distributed cambisols can lead to medium percolation capacity; (iii) the interaction between SOL_AWC and SOL_Z has noticeable effect on the peak flow and their effects are dependent upon each other, which discloses that soil depth can significant influence the processes of plant uptake of soil water in this watershed. Based on the above findings, the significant parameters and the relationship among uncertain parameters can be specified, such that hydrological model's capability for simulating/predicting water resources of the Jinghe River watershed can be improved.
Different atmospheric parameters influence on spectral UV radiation (measurements and modelling)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Chubarova, N.Y. [Moscow State Univ. (Russian Federation). Meteorological Observatory; Krotkov, N.A. [Maryland Univ., MD (United States). JCESS/Meteorology Dept.; Geogdzhaev, I.V.; Bushnev, S.V.; Kondranin, T.V. [SUMGF/MIPT, Dolgoprudny (Russian Federation); Khattatov, V.U. [Central Aerological Observatory, Dolgoprudny (Russian Federation)
1995-12-31
The ultraviolet (UV) radiation plays a vital role in the biophysical processes despite its small portion in the total solar flux. UV radiation is subject to large variations at the Earth surface depending greatly on solar elevation, ozone and cloud amount, aerosols and surface albedo. The analysis of atmospheric parameters influence is based on the spectral archive data of three spectral instruments: NSF spectroradiometer (Barrow network) (NSF Polar Programs UV Spectroradiometer Network 1991-1992,1992), spectrophotometer (SUVS-M) of Central Aerological Observatory CAO, spectroradiometer of Meteorological Observatory of the Moscow State University (MO MSU) and model simulations based on delta-Eddington approximation
Poblet, Facundo L.; Azpilicueta, Francisco
2018-05-01
The Earth and the near interplanetary medium are affected by the Sun in different ways. Those processes generated in the Sun that induce perturbations into the Magnetosphere-Ionosphere system are called geoeffective processes and show a wide range of temporal variations, like the 11-year solar cycle (long term variations), the variation of ∼27 days (recurrent variations), solar storms enduring for some days, particle acceleration events lasting for some hours, etc. In this article, the periodicity of ∼27 days associated with the solar synodic rotation period is investigated. The work is mainly focused on studying the resulting 27-day periodic signal in the magnetic activity, by the analysis of the horizontal component of the magnetic field registered on a set of 103 magnetic observatories distributed around the world. For this a new method to isolate the periodicity of interest has been developed consisting of two main steps: the first one consists of removing the linear trend corresponding to every calendar year from the data series, and the second one of removing from the resulting series a smoothed version of it obtained by applying a 30-day moving average. The result at the end of this process is a data series in which all the signal with periods larger than 30 days are canceled. The most important characteristics observed in the resulting signals are two main amplitude modulations: the first and most prominent related to the 11-year solar cycle and the second one with a semiannual pattern. In addition, the amplitude of the signal shows a dependence on the geomagnetic latitude of the observatory with a significant discontinuity at approx. ±60°. The processing scheme was also applied to other parameters that are widely used to characterize the energy transfer from the Sun to the Earth: F10.7 and Mg II indices and the ionospheric vertical total electron content (vTEC) were considered for radiative interactions; and the solar wind velocity for the non
Variation of Biophysical Parameters of the Skin with Age, Gender, and Body Region
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alireza Firooz
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Background. Understanding the physiological, chemical, and biophysical characteristics of the skin helps us to arrange a proper approach to the management of skin diseases. Objective. The aim of this study was to measure 6 biophysical characteristics of normal skin (sebum content, hydration, transepidermal water loss (TEWL, erythema index, melanin index, and elasticity in a normal population and assess the effect of sex, age, and body location on them. Methods. Fifty healthy volunteers in 5 age groups (5 males and females in each were enrolled in this study. A multifunctional skin physiology monitor (Courage & Khazaka electronic GmbH, Germany was used to measure skin sebum content, hydration, TEWL, erythema index, melanin index, and elasticity in 8 different locations of the body. Results. There were significant differences between the hydration, melanin index, and elasticity of different age groups. Regarding the locations, forehead had the highest melanin index, where as palm had the lowest value. The mean values of erythema index and melanin index and TEWL were significantly higher in males and anatomic location was a significant independent factor for all of 6 measured parameters. Conclusion. Several biophysical properties of the skin vary among different gender, age groups, and body locations.
Analysis of Model Parameters for a Polymer Filtration Simulator
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N. Brackett-Rozinsky
2011-01-01
Full Text Available We examine a simulation model for polymer extrusion filters and determine its sensitivity to filter parameters. The simulator is a three-dimensional, time-dependent discretization of a coupled system of nonlinear partial differential equations used to model fluid flow and debris transport, along with statistical relationships that define debris distributions and retention probabilities. The flow of polymer fluid, and suspended debris particles, is tracked to determine how well a filter performs and how long it operates before clogging. A filter may have multiple layers, characterized by thickness, porosity, and average pore diameter. In this work, the thickness of each layer is fixed, while the porosities and pore diameters vary for a two-layer and three-layer study. The effects of porosity and average pore diameter on the measures of filter quality are calculated. For the three layer model, these effects are tested for statistical significance using analysis of variance. Furthermore, the effects of each pair of interacting parameters are considered. This allows the detection of complexity, where in changing two aspects of a filter together may generate results substantially different from what occurs when those same aspects change separately. The principal findings indicate that the first layer of a filter is the most important.
Applying Atmospheric Measurements to Constrain Parameters of Terrestrial Source Models
Hyer, E. J.; Kasischke, E. S.; Allen, D. J.
2004-12-01
Quantitative inversions of atmospheric measurements have been widely applied to constrain atmospheric budgets of a range of trace gases. Experiments of this type have revealed persistent discrepancies between 'bottom-up' and 'top-down' estimates of source magnitudes. The most common atmospheric inversion uses the absolute magnitude as the sole parameter for each source, and returns the optimal value of that parameter. In order for atmospheric measurements to be useful for improving 'bottom-up' models of terrestrial sources, information about other properties of the sources must be extracted. As the density and quality of atmospheric trace gas measurements improve, examination of higher-order properties of trace gas sources should become possible. Our model of boreal forest fire emissions is parameterized to permit flexible examination of the key uncertainties in this source. Using output from this model together with the UM CTM, we examined the sensitivity of CO concentration measurements made by the MOPITT instrument to various uncertainties in the boreal source: geographic distribution of burned area, fire type (crown fires vs. surface fires), and fuel consumption in above-ground and ground-layer fuels. Our results indicate that carefully designed inversion experiments have the potential to help constrain not only the absolute magnitudes of terrestrial sources, but also the key uncertainties associated with 'bottom-up' estimates of those sources.
Bayesian parameter estimation for stochastic models of biological cell migration
Dieterich, Peter; Preuss, Roland
2013-08-01
Cell migration plays an essential role under many physiological and patho-physiological conditions. It is of major importance during embryonic development and wound healing. In contrast, it also generates negative effects during inflammation processes, the transmigration of tumors or the formation of metastases. Thus, a reliable quantification and characterization of cell paths could give insight into the dynamics of these processes. Typically stochastic models are applied where parameters are extracted by fitting models to the so-called mean square displacement of the observed cell group. We show that this approach has several disadvantages and problems. Therefore, we propose a simple procedure directly relying on the positions of the cell's trajectory and the covariance matrix of the positions. It is shown that the covariance is identical with the spatial aging correlation function for the supposed linear Gaussian models of Brownian motion with drift and fractional Brownian motion. The technique is applied and illustrated with simulated data showing a reliable parameter estimation from single cell paths.
Application of a free parameter model to plastic scintillation samples
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tarancon Sanz, Alex, E-mail: alex.tarancon@ub.edu [Departament de Quimica Analitica, Universitat de Barcelona, Diagonal 647, E-08028 Barcelona (Spain); Kossert, Karsten, E-mail: Karsten.Kossert@ptb.de [Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt (PTB), Bundesallee 100, 38116 Braunschweig (Germany)
2011-08-21
In liquid scintillation (LS) counting, the CIEMAT/NIST efficiency tracing method and the triple-to-double coincidence ratio (TDCR) method have proved their worth for reliable activity measurements of a number of radionuclides. In this paper, an extended approach to apply a free-parameter model to samples containing a mixture of solid plastic scintillation microspheres and radioactive aqueous solutions is presented. Several beta-emitting radionuclides were measured in a TDCR system at PTB. For the application of the free parameter model, the energy loss in the aqueous phase must be taken into account, since this portion of the particle energy does not contribute to the creation of scintillation light. The energy deposit in the aqueous phase is determined by means of Monte Carlo calculations applying the PENELOPE software package. To this end, great efforts were made to model the geometry of the samples. Finally, a new geometry parameter was defined, which was determined by means of a tracer radionuclide with known activity. This makes the analysis of experimental TDCR data of other radionuclides possible. The deviations between the determined activity concentrations and reference values were found to be lower than 3%. The outcome of this research work is also important for a better understanding of liquid scintillation counting. In particular the influence of (inverse) micelles, i.e. the aqueous spaces embedded in the organic scintillation cocktail, can be investigated. The new approach makes clear that it is important to take the energy loss in the aqueous phase into account. In particular for radionuclides emitting low-energy electrons (e.g. M-Auger electrons from {sup 125}I), this effect can be very important.
Microbial Communities Model Parameter Calculation for TSPA/SR
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
D. Jolley
2001-07-16
This calculation has several purposes. First the calculation reduces the information contained in ''Committed Materials in Repository Drifts'' (BSC 2001a) to useable parameters required as input to MING V1.O (CRWMS M&O 1998, CSCI 30018 V1.O) for calculation of the effects of potential in-drift microbial communities as part of the microbial communities model. The calculation is intended to replace the parameters found in Attachment II of the current In-Drift Microbial Communities Model revision (CRWMS M&O 2000c) with the exception of Section 11-5.3. Second, this calculation provides the information necessary to supercede the following DTN: M09909SPAMING1.003 and replace it with a new qualified dataset (see Table 6.2-1). The purpose of this calculation is to create the revised qualified parameter input for MING that will allow {Delta}G (Gibbs Free Energy) to be corrected for long-term changes to the temperature of the near-field environment. Calculated herein are the quadratic or second order regression relationships that are used in the energy limiting calculations to potential growth of microbial communities in the in-drift geochemical environment. Third, the calculation performs an impact review of a new DTN: M00012MAJIONIS.000 that is intended to replace the currently cited DTN: GS9809083 12322.008 for water chemistry data used in the current ''In-Drift Microbial Communities Model'' revision (CRWMS M&O 2000c). Finally, the calculation updates the material lifetimes reported on Table 32 in section 6.5.2.3 of the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' AMR (CRWMS M&O 2000c) based on the inputs reported in BSC (2001a). Changes include adding new specified materials and updating old materials information that has changed.
Microbial Communities Model Parameter Calculation for TSPA/SR
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
D. Jolley
2001-01-01
This calculation has several purposes. First the calculation reduces the information contained in ''Committed Materials in Repository Drifts'' (BSC 2001a) to useable parameters required as input to MING V1.O (CRWMS M and O 1998, CSCI 30018 V1.O) for calculation of the effects of potential in-drift microbial communities as part of the microbial communities model. The calculation is intended to replace the parameters found in Attachment II of the current In-Drift Microbial Communities Model revision (CRWMS M and O 2000c) with the exception of Section 11-5.3. Second, this calculation provides the information necessary to supercede the following DTN: M09909SPAMING1.003 and replace it with a new qualified dataset (see Table 6.2-1). The purpose of this calculation is to create the revised qualified parameter input for MING that will allow ΔG (Gibbs Free Energy) to be corrected for long-term changes to the temperature of the near-field environment. Calculated herein are the quadratic or second order regression relationships that are used in the energy limiting calculations to potential growth of microbial communities in the in-drift geochemical environment. Third, the calculation performs an impact review of a new DTN: M00012MAJIONIS.000 that is intended to replace the currently cited DTN: GS9809083 12322.008 for water chemistry data used in the current ''In-Drift Microbial Communities Model'' revision (CRWMS M and O 2000c). Finally, the calculation updates the material lifetimes reported on Table 32 in section 6.5.2.3 of the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' AMR (CRWMS M and O 2000c) based on the inputs reported in BSC (2001a). Changes include adding new specified materials and updating old materials information that has changed
Learning-based stochastic object models for characterizing anatomical variations
Dolly, Steven R.; Lou, Yang; Anastasio, Mark A.; Li, Hua
2018-03-01
It is widely known that the optimization of imaging systems based on objective, task-based measures of image quality via computer-simulation requires the use of a stochastic object model (SOM). However, the development of computationally tractable SOMs that can accurately model the statistical variations in human anatomy within a specified ensemble of patients remains a challenging task. Previously reported numerical anatomic models lack the ability to accurately model inter-patient and inter-organ variations in human anatomy among a broad patient population, mainly because they are established on image data corresponding to a few of patients and individual anatomic organs. This may introduce phantom-specific bias into computer-simulation studies, where the study result is heavily dependent on which phantom is used. In certain applications, however, databases of high-quality volumetric images and organ contours are available that can facilitate this SOM development. In this work, a novel and tractable methodology for learning a SOM and generating numerical phantoms from a set of volumetric training images is developed. The proposed methodology learns geometric attribute distributions (GAD) of human anatomic organs from a broad patient population, which characterize both centroid relationships between neighboring organs and anatomic shape similarity of individual organs among patients. By randomly sampling the learned centroid and shape GADs with the constraints of the respective principal attribute variations learned from the training data, an ensemble of stochastic objects can be created. The randomness in organ shape and position reflects the learned variability of human anatomy. To demonstrate the methodology, a SOM of an adult male pelvis is computed and examples of corresponding numerical phantoms are created.
Modelled basic parameters for semi-industrial irradiation plant design
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mangussi, J.
2009-01-01
The basic parameters of an irradiation plant design are the total activity, the product uniformity ratio and the efficiency process. The target density, the minimum dose required and the throughput depends on the use to which the irradiator will be put at. In this work, a model for calculating the specific dose rate at several depths in an infinite homogeneous medium produced by a slab source irradiator is presented. The product minimum dose rate for a set of target thickness is obtained. The design method steps are detailed and an illustrative example is presented. (author)
Lumped-parameter fuel rod model for rapid thermal transients
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Perkins, K.R.; Ramshaw, J.D.
1975-07-01
The thermal behavior of fuel rods during simulated accident conditions is extremely sensitive to the heat transfer coefficient which is, in turn, very sensitive to the cladding surface temperature and the fluid conditions. The development of a semianalytical, lumped-parameter fuel rod model which is intended to provide accurate calculations, in a minimum amount of computer time, of the thermal response of fuel rods during a simulated loss-of-coolant accident is described. The results show good agreement with calculations from a comprehensive fuel-rod code (FRAP-T) currently in use at Aerojet Nuclear Company
Taming Many-Parameter BSM Models with Bayesian Neural Networks
Kuchera, M. P.; Karbo, A.; Prosper, H. B.; Sanchez, A.; Taylor, J. Z.
2017-09-01
The search for physics Beyond the Standard Model (BSM) is a major focus of large-scale high energy physics experiments. One method is to look for specific deviations from the Standard Model that are predicted by BSM models. In cases where the model has a large number of free parameters, standard search methods become intractable due to computation time. This talk presents results using Bayesian Neural Networks, a supervised machine learning method, to enable the study of higher-dimensional models. The popular phenomenological Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model was studied as an example of the feasibility and usefulness of this method. Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) are used to expedite the calculations. Cross-section predictions for 13 TeV proton collisions will be presented. My participation in the Conference Experience for Undergraduates (CEU) in 2004-2006 exposed me to the national and global significance of cutting-edge research. At the 2005 CEU, I presented work from the previous summer's SULI internship at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, where I learned to program while working on the Majorana Project. That work inspired me to follow a similar research path, which led me to my current work on computational methods applied to BSM physics.
Bayesian analysis of inflation: Parameter estimation for single field models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mortonson, Michael J.; Peiris, Hiranya V.; Easther, Richard
2011-01-01
Future astrophysical data sets promise to strengthen constraints on models of inflation, and extracting these constraints requires methods and tools commensurate with the quality of the data. In this paper we describe ModeCode, a new, publicly available code that computes the primordial scalar and tensor power spectra for single-field inflationary models. ModeCode solves the inflationary mode equations numerically, avoiding the slow roll approximation. It is interfaced with CAMB and CosmoMC to compute cosmic microwave background angular power spectra and perform likelihood analysis and parameter estimation. ModeCode is easily extendable to additional models of inflation, and future updates will include Bayesian model comparison. Errors from ModeCode contribute negligibly to the error budget for analyses of data from Planck or other next generation experiments. We constrain representative single-field models (φ n with n=2/3, 1, 2, and 4, natural inflation, and 'hilltop' inflation) using current data, and provide forecasts for Planck. From current data, we obtain weak but nontrivial limits on the post-inflationary physics, which is a significant source of uncertainty in the predictions of inflationary models, while we find that Planck will dramatically improve these constraints. In particular, Planck will link the inflationary dynamics with the post-inflationary growth of the horizon, and thus begin to probe the ''primordial dark ages'' between TeV and grand unified theory scale energies.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Avila Moreno, R.; Barrdahl, R.; Haegg, C.
1995-05-01
The main objective of the present study was to carry out a screening and a sensitivity analysis of the SSI TOOLBOX source term model SOSIM. This model is a part of the SSI TOOLBOX for radiological impact assessment of the Swedish disposal concept for high-level waste KBS-3. The outputs of interest for this purpose were: the total released fraction, the time of total release, the time and value of maximum release rate, the dose rates after direct releases of the biosphere. The source term equations were derived and simple equations and methods were proposed for calculation of these. A literature survey has been performed in order to determine a characteristic variation range and a nominal value for each model parameter. In order to reduce the model uncertainties the authors recommend a change in the initial boundary condition for solution of the diffusion equation for highly soluble nuclides. 13 refs
Empirically modelled Pc3 activity based on solar wind parameters
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
B. Heilig
2010-09-01
Full Text Available It is known that under certain solar wind (SW/interplanetary magnetic field (IMF conditions (e.g. high SW speed, low cone angle the occurrence of ground-level Pc3–4 pulsations is more likely. In this paper we demonstrate that in the event of anomalously low SW particle density, Pc3 activity is extremely low regardless of otherwise favourable SW speed and cone angle. We re-investigate the SW control of Pc3 pulsation activity through a statistical analysis and two empirical models with emphasis on the influence of SW density on Pc3 activity. We utilise SW and IMF measurements from the OMNI project and ground-based magnetometer measurements from the MM100 array to relate SW and IMF measurements to the occurrence of Pc3 activity. Multiple linear regression and artificial neural network models are used in iterative processes in order to identify sets of SW-based input parameters, which optimally reproduce a set of Pc3 activity data. The inclusion of SW density in the parameter set significantly improves the models. Not only the density itself, but other density related parameters, such as the dynamic pressure of the SW, or the standoff distance of the magnetopause work equally well in the model. The disappearance of Pc3s during low-density events can have at least four reasons according to the existing upstream wave theory: 1. Pausing the ion-cyclotron resonance that generates the upstream ultra low frequency waves in the absence of protons, 2. Weakening of the bow shock that implies less efficient reflection, 3. The SW becomes sub-Alfvénic and hence it is not able to sweep back the waves propagating upstream with the Alfvén-speed, and 4. The increase of the standoff distance of the magnetopause (and of the bow shock. Although the models cannot account for the lack of Pc3s during intervals when the SW density is extremely low, the resulting sets of optimal model inputs support the generation of mid latitude Pc3 activity predominantly through
D'Souza, Kiran; Epureanu, Bogdan I.
2010-06-01
Recently, system augmentation has been combined with nonlinear feedback auxiliary signals to provide sensitivity enhancement in both linear and nonlinear systems. Augmented systems are higher dimensional linear systems that follow trajectories of a nonlinear system one at a time. These augmented systems are subject to a specialized augmented forcing which enforces the augmented system to exactly reproduce the trajectory of the nonlinear system when projected onto the lower dimensional (physical) system. Augmented systems have additional benefits outside of handling nonlinear systems, which makes them more desirable than regular linear systems for sensitivity enhancing control. One of the key advantages of augmented systems is the complete control over the augmented degrees of freedom, and the additional sensor-type knowledge from the augmented variables. These sensing and actuation features are very useful when only few physical actuators and sensors can be placed. Such restrictions are common in most applications, and they severely limit the usefulness of traditional linear sensitivity enhancing feedback approaches. Another benefit of the augmentation is that the control exerted on the augmented degrees of freedom does not require any physical energy, rather it is just signal processing. In this work, these benefits are refined to improve the robustness of detection using sensitivity enhancement. Also, the benefits of system augmentation are explored by using few actuators and sensors. An optimization algorithm is employed not only to maximize the sensitivity of resonant frequencies to added mass at particular locations, but also to detect uniform changes in mass and stiffness. In addition to increased sensitivity for both global and local parameter changes, a study of increasing the sensitivity of local changes, while decreasing the sensitivity of global changes is conducted. Additionally, a methodology is presented to accurately extract augmented frequencies
Modelling of bio-optical parameters of open ocean waters
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vadim N. Pelevin
2001-12-01
Full Text Available An original method for estimating the concentration of chlorophyll pigments, absorption of yellow substance and absorption of suspended matter without pigments and yellow substance in detritus using spectral diffuse attenuation coefficient for downwelling irradiance and irradiance reflectance data has been applied to sea waters of different types in the open ocean (case 1. Using the effective numerical single parameter classification with the water type optical index m as a parameter over the whole range of the open ocean waters, the calculations have been carried out and the light absorption spectra of sea waters tabulated. These spectra are used to optimize the absorption models and thus to estimate the concentrations of the main admixtures in sea water. The value of m can be determined from direct measurements of the downward irradiance attenuation coefficient at 500 nm or calculated from remote sensing data using the regressions given in the article. The sea water composition can then be readily estimated from the tables given for any open ocean area if that one parameter m characterizing the basin is known.
Application of regression model on stream water quality parameters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Suleman, M.; Maqbool, F.; Malik, A.H.; Bhatti, Z.A.
2012-01-01
Statistical analysis was conducted to evaluate the effect of solid waste leachate from the open solid waste dumping site of Salhad on the stream water quality. Five sites were selected along the stream. Two sites were selected prior to mixing of leachate with the surface water. One was of leachate and other two sites were affected with leachate. Samples were analyzed for pH, water temperature, electrical conductivity (EC), total dissolved solids (TDS), Biological oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), dissolved oxygen (DO) and total bacterial load (TBL). In this study correlation coefficient r among different water quality parameters of various sites were calculated by using Pearson model and then average of each correlation between two parameters were also calculated, which shows TDS and EC and pH and BOD have significantly increasing r value, while temperature and TDS, temp and EC, DO and BL, DO and COD have decreasing r value. Single factor ANOVA at 5% level of significance was used which shows EC, TDS, TCL and COD were significantly differ among various sites. By the application of these two statistical approaches TDS and EC shows strongly positive correlation because the ions from the dissolved solids in water influence the ability of that water to conduct an electrical current. These two parameters significantly vary among 5 sites which are further confirmed by using linear regression. (author)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cristea, D.; Pătru, M.; Crisan, A.; Munteanu, D. [Department of Materials Science, Transilvania University, 500036 Brasov (Romania); Crăciun, D. [Laser Department, National Institute for Laser, Plasma, and Radiation Physics, Magurele (Romania); Barradas, N.P. [Centro de Ciências e Tecnologias Nucleares, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, E.N. 10 ao km 139,7, 2695-066 Bobadela LRS (Portugal); Alves, E. [Instituto de Plasmas e Fusão Nuclear, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, E.N. 10 ao km 139,7, 2695-066 Bobadela LRS (Portugal); Apreutesei, M. [Université de Lyon, Institut des Nanotechnologies de Lyon INL-UMR 5270, CNRS, Ecole Centrale de Lyon, Ecully F-69134 (France); MATEIS Laboratory-INSA de Lyon, Bât. B. Pascal, 7 Avenue Jean Capelle, 69621 Villeurbanne Cedex (France); Moura, C. [Center of Physics, University of Minho, Campus de Gualtar, 4710-057 Braga (Portugal); Cunha, L., E-mail: lcunha@fisica.uminho.pt [Center of Physics, University of Minho, Campus de Gualtar, 4710-057 Braga (Portugal)
2015-12-15
Highlights: • Structural evolution from β-Ta, to fcc-Ta(O,N), to amorphous Ta{sub 2}O{sub 5} with increasing P(N{sub 2} + O{sub 2}). • The substrate bias influences the N content, but does not influence the O content of the films. • The structural features of the films appear at lower P(N{sub 2} + O{sub 2}) when produced with grounded substrate. - Abstract: Tantalum oxynitride thin films were produced by magnetron sputtering. The films were deposited using a pure Ta target and a working atmosphere with a constant N{sub 2}/O{sub 2} ratio. The choice of this constant ratio limits the study concerning the influence of each reactive gas, but allows a deeper understanding of the aspects related to the affinity of Ta to the non-metallic elements and it is economically advantageous. This work begins by analysing the data obtained directly from the film deposition stage, followed by the analysis of the morphology, composition and structure. For a better understanding regarding the influence of the deposition parameters, the analyses are presented by using the following criterion: the films were divided into two sets, one of them produced with grounded substrate holder and the other with a polarization of −50 V. Each one of these sets was produced with different partial pressure of the reactive gases P(N{sub 2} + O{sub 2}). All the films exhibited a O/N ratio higher than the N/O ratio in the deposition chamber atmosphere. In the case of the films produced with grounded substrate holder, a strong increase of the O content is observed, associated to the strong decrease of the N content, when P(N{sub 2} + O{sub 2}) is higher than 0.13 Pa. The higher Ta affinity for O strongly influences the structural evolution of the films. Grazing incidence X-ray diffraction showed that the lower partial pressure films were crystalline, while X-ray reflectivity studies found out that the density of the films depended on the deposition conditions: the higher the gas pressure, the
Introducing a price variation limiter mechanism into a behavioral financial market model.
Naimzada, Ahmad; Pireddu, Marina
2015-08-01
In the present paper, we consider a nonlinear financial market model in which, in order to decrease the complexity of the dynamics and to achieve price stabilization, we introduce a price variation limiter mechanism, which in each period bounds the price variation so that the current price is forced to belong to a certain interval determined by the price realization in the previous period. More precisely, we introduce such mechanism into a financial market model in which the price dynamics are described by a sigmoidal price adjustment mechanism characterized by the presence of two asymptotes that bound the price variation and thus the dynamics. We show that the presence of our asymptotes prevents divergence and negativity issues. Moreover, we prove that the basins of attraction are complicated only under suitable conditions on the parameters and that chaos arises just when the price limiters are loose enough. On the other hand, for some suitable parameter configurations, we detect multistability phenomena characterized by the presence of up to three coexisting attractors.
Diabatic models with transferrable parameters for generalized chemical reactions
Reimers, Jeffrey R.; McKemmish, Laura K.; McKenzie, Ross H.; Hush, Noel S.
2017-05-01
Diabatic models applied to adiabatic electron-transfer theory yield many equations involving just a few parameters that connect ground-state geometries and vibration frequencies to excited-state transition energies and vibration frequencies to the rate constants for electron-transfer reactions, utilizing properties of the conical-intersection seam linking the ground and excited states through the Pseudo Jahn-Teller effect. We review how such simplicity in basic understanding can also be obtained for general chemical reactions. The key feature that must be recognized is that electron-transfer (or hole transfer) processes typically involve one electron (hole) moving between two orbitals, whereas general reactions typically involve two electrons or even four electrons for processes in aromatic molecules. Each additional moving electron leads to new high-energy but interrelated conical-intersection seams that distort the shape of the critical lowest-energy seam. Recognizing this feature shows how conical-intersection descriptors can be transferred between systems, and how general chemical reactions can be compared using the same set of simple parameters. Mathematical relationships are presented depicting how different conical-intersection seams relate to each other, showing that complex problems can be reduced into an effective interaction between the ground-state and a critical excited state to provide the first semi-quantitative implementation of Shaik’s “twin state” concept. Applications are made (i) demonstrating why the chemistry of the first-row elements is qualitatively so different to that of the second and later rows, (ii) deducing the bond-length alternation in hypothetical cyclohexatriene from the observed UV spectroscopy of benzene, (iii) demonstrating that commonly used procedures for modelling surface hopping based on inclusion of only the first-derivative correction to the Born-Oppenheimer approximation are valid in no region of the chemical
Piecewise Model and Parameter Obtainment of Governor Actuator in Turbine
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jie Zhao
2015-01-01
Full Text Available The governor actuators in some heat-engine plants have nonlinear valves. This nonlinearity of valves may lead to the inaccuracy of the opening and closing time constants calculated based on the whole segment fully open and fully close experimental test curves of the valve. An improved mathematical model of the turbine governor actuator is proposed to reflect the nonlinearity of the valve, in which the main and auxiliary piecewise opening and closing time constants instead of the fixed oil motive opening and closing time constants are adopted to describe the characteristics of the actuator. The main opening and closing time constants are obtained from the linear segments of the whole fully open and close curves. The parameters of proportional integral derivative (PID controller are identified based on the small disturbance experimental tests of the valve. Then the auxiliary opening and closing time constants and the piecewise opening and closing valve points are determined by the fully open/close experimental tests. Several testing functions are selected to compare genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization algorithm (GA-PSO with other basic intelligence algorithms. The effectiveness of the piecewise linear model and its parameters are validated by practical power plant case studies.
Standard model parameters and the search for new physics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Marciano, W.J.
1988-04-01
In these lectures, my aim is to present an up-to-date status report on the standard model and some key tests of electroweak unification. Within that context, I also discuss how and where hints of new physics may emerge. To accomplish those goals, I have organized my presentation as follows: I discuss the standard model parameters with particular emphasis on the gauge coupling constants and vector boson masses. Examples of new physics appendages are also briefly commented on. In addition, because these lectures are intended for students and thus somewhat pedagogical, I have included an appendix on dimensional regularization and a simple computational example that employs that technique. Next, I focus on weak charged current phenomenology. Precision tests of the standard model are described and up-to-date values for the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa (CKM) mixing matrix parameters are presented. Constraints implied by those tests for a 4th generation, supersymmetry, extra Z/prime/ bosons, and compositeness are also discussed. I discuss weak neutral current phenomenology and the extraction of sin/sup 2/ /theta//sub W/ from experiment. The results presented there are based on a recently completed global analysis of all existing data. I have chosen to concentrate that discussion on radiative corrections, the effect of a heavy top quark mass, and implications for grand unified theories (GUTS). The potential for further experimental progress is also commented on. I depart from the narrowest version of the standard model and discuss effects of neutrino masses and mixings. I have chosen to concentrate on oscillations, the Mikheyev-Smirnov- Wolfenstein (MSW) effect, and electromagnetic properties of neutrinos. On the latter topic, I will describe some recent work on resonant spin-flavor precession. Finally, I conclude with a prospectus on hopes for the future. 76 refs
INFLUENCE OF TECHNOLOGICAL PARAMETERS ON AGROTEXTILES WATER ABSORBENCY USING ANOVA MODEL
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
LUPU Iuliana G.
2016-05-01
Full Text Available Agrotextiles are now days extensively being used in horticulture, farming and other agricultural activities. Agriculture and textiles are the largest industries in the world providing basic needs such as food and clothing. Agrotextiles plays a significant role to help control environment for crop protection, eliminate variations in climate, weather change and generate optimum condition for plant growth. Water absorptive capacity is a very important property of needle-punched nonwovens used as irrigation substrate in horticulture. Nonwovens used as watering substrate distribute water uniformly and act as slight water buffer owing to the absorbent capacity. The paper analyzes the influence of needling process parameters on water absorptive capacity of needle-punched nonwovens by using ANOVA model. The model allows the identification of optimal action parameters in a shorter time and with less material expenses than by experimental research. The frequency of needle board and needle depth penetration has been used as independent variables while the water absorptive capacity as dependent variable for ANOVA regression model. Based on employed ANOVA model we have established that there is a significant influence of needling parameters on water absorbent capacity. The higher of depth needle penetration and needle board frequency, the higher is the compactness of fabric. A less porous structure has a lower water absorptive capacity.
Residential radon in Finland: sources, variation, modelling and dose comparisons
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Arvela, H.
1995-09-01
The study deals with sources of indoor radon in Finland, seasonal variations in radon concentration, the effect of house construction and ventilation and also with the radiation dose from indoor radon and terrestrial gamma radiation. The results are based on radon measurements in approximately 4000 dwellings and on air exchange measurements in 250 dwellings as well as on model calculations. The results confirm that convective soil air flow is by far the most important source of indoor radon in Finnish low-rise residential housing. (97 refs., 61 figs., 30 tabs.)
Residential radon in Finland: sources, variation, modelling and dose comparisons
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Arvela, H.
1995-09-01
The study deals with sources of indoor radon in Finland, seasonal variations in radon concentration, the effect of house construction and ventilation and also with the radiation dose from indoor radon and terrestrial gamma radiation. The results are based on radon measurements in approximately 4000 dwellings and on air exchange measurements in 250 dwellings as well as on model calculations. The results confirm that convective soil air flow is by far the most important source of indoor radon in Finnish low-rise residential housing. (97 refs., 61 figs., 30 tabs.).
Genome Editing of Structural Variations: Modeling and Gene Correction.
Park, Chul-Yong; Sung, Jin Jea; Kim, Dong-Wook
2016-07-01
The analysis of chromosomal structural variations (SVs), such as inversions and translocations, was made possible by the completion of the human genome project and the development of genome-wide sequencing technologies. SVs contribute to genetic diversity and evolution, although some SVs can cause diseases such as hemophilia A in humans. Genome engineering technology using programmable nucleases (e.g., ZFNs, TALENs, and CRISPR/Cas9) has been rapidly developed, enabling precise and efficient genome editing for SV research. Here, we review advances in modeling and gene correction of SVs, focusing on inversion, translocation, and nucleotide repeat expansion. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Sun, Y.; Hou, Z.; Huang, M.; Tian, F.; Leung, L. Ruby
2013-12-01
This study demonstrates the possibility of inverting hydrologic parameters using surface flux and runoff observations in version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4). Previous studies showed that surface flux and runoff calculations are sensitive to major hydrologic parameters in CLM4 over different watersheds, and illustrated the necessity and possibility of parameter calibration. Both deterministic least-square fitting and stochastic Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-Bayesian inversion approaches are evaluated by applying them to CLM4 at selected sites with different climate and soil conditions. The unknowns to be estimated include surface and subsurface runoff generation parameters and vadose zone soil water parameters. We find that using model parameters calibrated by the sampling-based stochastic inversion approaches provides significant improvements in the model simulations compared to using default CLM4 parameter values, and that as more information comes in, the predictive intervals (ranges of posterior distributions) of the calibrated parameters become narrower. In general, parameters that are identified to be significant through sensitivity analyses and statistical tests are better calibrated than those with weak or nonlinear impacts on flux or runoff observations. Temporal resolution of observations has larger impacts on the results of inverse modeling using heat flux data than runoff data. Soil and vegetation cover have important impacts on parameter sensitivities, leading to different patterns of posterior distributions of parameters at different sites. Overall, the MCMC-Bayesian inversion approach effectively and reliably improves the simulation of CLM under different climates and environmental conditions. Bayesian model averaging of the posterior estimates with different reference acceptance probabilities can smooth the posterior distribution and provide more reliable parameter estimates, but at the expense of wider uncertainty bounds.
A variational multiscale constitutive model for nanocrystalline materials
Gurses, Ercan
2011-03-01
This paper presents a variational multi-scale constitutive model in the finite deformation regime capable of capturing the mechanical behavior of nanocrystalline (nc) fcc metals. The nc-material is modeled as a two-phase material consisting of a grain interior phase and a grain boundary effected zone (GBAZ). A rate-independent isotropic porous plasticity model is employed to describe the GBAZ, whereas a crystal-plasticity model which accounts for the transition from partial dislocation to full dislocation mediated plasticity is employed for the grain interior. The constitutive models of both phases are formulated in a small strain framework and extended to finite deformation by use of logarithmic and exponential mappings. Assuming the rule of mixtures, the overall behavior of a given grain is obtained via volume averaging. The scale transition from a single grain to a polycrystal is achieved by Taylor-type homogenization where a log-normal grain size distribution is assumed. It is shown that the proposed model is able to capture the inverse HallPetch effect, i.e., loss of strength with grain size refinement. Finally, the predictive capability of the model is validated against experimental results on nanocrystalline copper and nickel. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Bogaards, J.J.P.; Hissink, E.M.; Briggs, M.; Weaver, R.; Jochemsen, R.; Jackson, P.; Bertrand, M.; Bladeren, P. van
2000-01-01
A strategy is presented to predict interindividual variation in drug plasma levels in vivo by the use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling and human in vitro metabolic parameters, obtained through the combined use of microsomes containing single cytochrome P450 enzymes and a human liver
Variations in Solar Parameters and Cosmic Rays with Solar Magnetic Polarity
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Oh, S. [Department of Earth Science Education, Chonnam National University, Gwangju, 61186 (Korea, Republic of); Yi, Y., E-mail: suyeonoh@jnu.ac.kr [Department of Astronomy, Space Science and Geology, Chungnam National University, Daejeon, 34134 (Korea, Republic of)
2017-05-01
The sunspot number varies with the 11-year Schwabe cycle, and the solar magnetic polarity reverses every 11 years approximately at the solar maximum. Because of polarity reversal, the difference between odd and even solar cycles is seen in solar activity. In this study, we create the mean solar cycle expressed by phase using the monthly sunspot number for all solar cycles 1–23. We also generate the mean solar cycle for sunspot area, solar radio flux, and cosmic ray flux within the allowance of observational range. The mean solar cycle has one large peak at solar maximum for odd solar cycles and two small peaks for most even solar cycles. The odd and even solar cycles have the statistical difference in value and shape at a confidence level of at least 98%. For solar cycles 19–23, the second peak in the even solar cycle is larger than the first peak. This result is consistent with the frequent solar events during the declining phase after the solar maximum. The difference between odd and even solar cycles can be explained by a combined model of polarity reversal and solar rotation. In the positive/negative polarity, the polar magnetic field introduces angular momentum in the same/opposite direction as/to the solar rotation. Thus the addition/subtraction of angular momentum can increase/decrease the motion of plasma to support the formation of sunspots. Since the polarity reverses at the solar maximum, the opposite phenomenon occurs in the declining phase.
Performance Analysis of Different NeQuick Ionospheric Model Parameters
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WANG Ningbo
2017-04-01
Full Text Available Galileo adopts NeQuick model for single-frequency ionospheric delay corrections. For the standard operation of Galileo, NeQuick model is driven by the effective ionization level parameter Az instead of the solar activity level index, and the three broadcast ionospheric coefficients are determined by a second-polynomial through fitting the Az values estimated from globally distributed Galileo Sensor Stations (GSS. In this study, the processing strategies for the estimation of NeQuick ionospheric coefficients are discussed and the characteristics of the NeQuick coefficients are also analyzed. The accuracy of Global Position System (GPS broadcast Klobuchar, original NeQuick2 and fitted NeQuickC as well as Galileo broadcast NeQuickG models is evaluated over the continental and oceanic regions, respectively, in comparison with the ionospheric total electron content (TEC provided by global ionospheric maps (GIM, GPS test stations and JASON-2 altimeter. The results show that NeQuickG can mitigate ionospheric delay by 54.2%~65.8% on a global scale, and NeQuickC can correct for 71.1%~74.2% of the ionospheric delay. NeQuick2 performs at the same level with NeQuickG, which is a bit better than that of GPS broadcast Klobuchar model.
Exploring parameter constraints on quintessential dark energy: The exponential model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bozek, Brandon; Abrahamse, Augusta; Albrecht, Andreas; Barnard, Michael
2008-01-01
We present an analysis of a scalar field model of dark energy with an exponential potential using the Dark Energy Task Force (DETF) simulated data models. Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling techniques we examine the ability of each simulated data set to constrain the parameter space of the exponential potential for data sets based on a cosmological constant and a specific exponential scalar field model. We compare our results with the constraining power calculated by the DETF using their 'w 0 -w a ' parametrization of the dark energy. We find that respective increases in constraining power from one stage to the next produced by our analysis give results consistent with DETF results. To further investigate the potential impact of future experiments, we also generate simulated data for an exponential model background cosmology which cannot be distinguished from a cosmological constant at DETF 'Stage 2', and show that for this cosmology good DETF Stage 4 data would exclude a cosmological constant by better than 3σ
Modeling of microfluidic microbial fuel cells using quantitative bacterial transport parameters
Mardanpour, Mohammad Mahdi; Yaghmaei, Soheila; Kalantar, Mohammad
2017-02-01
The objective of present study is to analyze the dynamic modeling of bioelectrochemical processes and improvement of the performance of previous models using quantitative data of bacterial transport parameters. The main deficiency of previous MFC models concerning spatial distribution of biocatalysts is an assumption of initial distribution of attached/suspended bacteria on electrode or in anolyte bulk which is the foundation for biofilm formation. In order to modify this imperfection, the quantification of chemotactic motility to understand the mechanisms of the suspended microorganisms' distribution in anolyte and/or their attachment to anode surface to extend the biofilm is implemented numerically. The spatial and temporal distributions of the bacteria, as well as the dynamic behavior of the anolyte and biofilm are simulated. The performance of the microfluidic MFC as a chemotaxis assay is assessed by analyzing the bacteria activity, substrate variation, bioelectricity production rate and the influences of external resistance on the biofilm and anolyte's features.
Model Predictive Optimal Control of a Time-Delay Distributed-Parameter Systems
Nguyen, Nhan
2006-01-01
This paper presents an optimal control method for a class of distributed-parameter systems governed by first order, quasilinear hyperbolic partial differential equations that arise in many physical systems. Such systems are characterized by time delays since information is transported from one state to another by wave propagation. A general closed-loop hyperbolic transport model is controlled by a boundary control embedded in a periodic boundary condition. The boundary control is subject to a nonlinear differential equation constraint that models actuator dynamics of the system. The hyperbolic equation is thus coupled with the ordinary differential equation via the boundary condition. Optimality of this coupled system is investigated using variational principles to seek an adjoint formulation of the optimal control problem. The results are then applied to implement a model predictive control design for a wind tunnel to eliminate a transport delay effect that causes a poor Mach number regulation.
Ghassoun, Yahya; Ruths, Matthias; Löwner, Marc-Oliver; Weber, Stephan
2015-12-01
The microscale intra-urban variation of ultrafine particle concentrations (UFP, diameter Dpland use regression model (LUR) using different urban morphology parameters as input is compared to a multiple regression type model driven by pollutant and meteorological parameters (PDR). While the LUR model was trained with UFP concentration the PDR model was trained with measured particle number size distribution data. The UFP concentration was then calculated from the modelled size distributions. Both statistical approaches include explanatory variables that try to address the 'process chain' of particle emission, dilution and deposition. LUR explained 74% and 85% of the variance of UFP for the full data set with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 668 cm(-3) and 1639 cm(-3) in summer and winter, respectively. PDR explained 56% and 74% of the variance with RMSE of 4066 cm(-3) and 6030 cm(-3) in summer and winter, respectively. Both models are capable to depict the spatial variation of UFP across the study area and in different outdoor microenvironments. The deviation from measured UFP concentrations is smaller in the LUR model than in PDR. The PDR model is well suited to predict urban particle number size distributions from the explanatory variables (total particle number concentration, black carbon and wind speed). The urban morphology parameters in the LUR model are able to resolve size dependent concentration variations but not as adequately as PDR. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Application of multi-parameter chorus and plasmaspheric hiss wave models in radiation belt modeling
Aryan, H.; Kang, S. B.; Balikhin, M. A.; Fok, M. C. H.; Agapitov, O. V.; Komar, C. M.; Kanekal, S. G.; Nagai, T.; Sibeck, D. G.
2017-12-01
Numerical simulation studies of the Earth's radiation belts are important to understand the acceleration and loss of energetic electrons. The Comprehensive Inner Magnetosphere-Ionosphere (CIMI) model along with many other radiation belt models require inputs for pitch angle, energy, and cross diffusion of electrons, due to chorus and plasmaspheric hiss waves. These parameters are calculated using statistical wave distribution models of chorus and plasmaspheric hiss amplitudes. In this study we incorporate recently developed multi-parameter chorus and plasmaspheric hiss wave models based on geomagnetic index and solar wind parameters. We perform CIMI simulations for two geomagnetic storms and compare the flux enhancement of MeV electrons with data from the Van Allen Probes and Akebono satellites. We show that the relativistic electron fluxes calculated with multi-parameter wave models resembles the observations more accurately than the relativistic electron fluxes calculated with single-parameter wave models. This indicates that wave models based on a combination of geomagnetic index and solar wind parameters are more effective as inputs to radiation belt models.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Chatterjee, Subhamoy; Mandal, Sudip; Banerjee, Dipankar, E-mail: dipu@iiap.res.in [Indian Institute of Astrophysics, Koramangala, Bangalore 560034 (India)
2017-06-01
The Ca ii K spectroheliograms spanning over a century (1907–2007) from Kodaikanal Solar Observatory, India, have recently been digitized and calibrated. Applying a fully automated algorithm (which includes contrast enhancement and the “Watershed method”) to these data, we have identified the supergranules and calculated the associated parameters, such as scale, circularity, and fractal dimension. We have segregated the quiet and active regions and obtained the supergranule parameters separately for these two domains. In this way, we have isolated the effect of large-scale and small-scale magnetic fields on these structures and find a significantly different behavior of the supergranule parameters over solar cycles. These differences indicate intrinsic changes in the physical mechanism behind the generation and evolution of supergranules in the presence of small-scale and large-scale magnetic fields. This also highlights the need for further studies using solar dynamo theory along with magneto-convection models.
Szymczak, Sonja; Hetzer, Timo; Bräuning, Achim; Joachimski, Michael M.; Leuschner, Hanns-Hubert; Kuhlemann, Joachim
2014-10-01
We present a new multi-parameter dataset from Corsican black pine growing on the island of Corsica in the Western Mediterranean basin covering the period AD 1410-2008. Wood parameters measured include tree-ring width, latewood width, earlywood width, cell lumen area, cell width, cell wall thickness, modelled wood density, as well as stable carbon and oxygen isotopes. We evaluated the relationships between different parameters and determined the value of the dataset for climate reconstructions. Correlation analyses revealed that carbon isotope ratios are influenced by cell parameters determining cell size, whereas oxygen isotope ratios are influenced by cell parameters determining the amount of transportable water in the xylem. A summer (June to August) precipitation reconstruction dating back to AD 1185 was established based on tree-ring width. No long-term trends or pronounced periods with extreme high/low precipitation are recorded in our reconstruction, indicating relatively stable moisture conditions over the entire time period. By comparing the precipitation reconstruction with a summer temperature reconstruction derived from the carbon isotope chronologies, we identified summers with extreme climate conditions, i.e. warm-dry, warm-wet, cold-dry and cold-wet. Extreme climate conditions during summer months were found to influence cell parameter characteristics. Cold-wet summers promote the production of broad latewood composed of wide and thin-walled tracheids, while warm-wet summers promote the production of latewood with small thick-walled cells. The presented dataset emphasizes the potential of multi-parameter wood analysis from one tree species over long time scales.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fiorino, Claudio; Rizzo, Giovanna; Scalco, Elisa; Broggi, Sara; Belli, Maria Luisa; Dell’Oca, Italo; Dinapoli, Nicola; Ricchetti, Francesco; Rodriguez, Aldo Mejia; Di Muzio, Nadia; Calandrino, Riccardo; Sanguineti, Giuseppe; Valentini, Vincenzo; Cattaneo, Giovanni Mauro
2012-01-01
Purpose: Measuring parotid density changes in patients treated with IMRT for head–neck cancer (HNC) and assessing correlation with treatment-related parameters. Patients and materials: Data of 84 patients treated with IMRT for different HNC were pooled from three institutions. Parotid deformation and average Hounsfield number changes (ΔHU) were evaluated through MVCT (with Helical Tomotherapy) or diagnostic kVCT images taken at the treatment start/end. Parotids were delineated in the first image and propagated to the last using a previously validated algorithm based on elastic registration. The correlation between ΔHU and several treatment-related parameters was tested; then, logistic uni- and multi-variate analyses taking “large” ΔHU as end-point were carried out. Due to the better image quality, analyses were repeated considering only kVCT data. Results: ΔHU was negative in 116/168 parotids (69%; for kVCT patients: 72/92, 78%). The average ΔHU was significantly different from zero (−7.3, 0.20–0.25 HU/fraction, p m ean), and with neck thickness variation; these correlations were much stronger for kVCT data. Logistic analyses considering ΔHU m ean < 0.68) and initial neck thickness to be the most predictive variables (p < 0.0005, AUC = 0.683; AUC = 0.776 for kVCT); the odd ratio of large vs moderate/small parotid deformation was 3.8 and 8.0 for the whole and the kVCT population respectively. Conclusions: Parotid density reduced in most patients during IMRT and this phenomenon was highly correlated with parotid deformation. The individual assessment of density changes was highly reliable just with diagnostic KvCT. Density changes should be considered as an additional objective measurement of early parotid radiation-induced modifications; further research is warranted.
On the Use of Nonlinear Model Predictive Control without Parameter Adaptation for Batch Processes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jean-Christophe Binette
2016-08-01
Full Text Available Optimization techniques are typically used to improve economic performance of batch processes, while meeting product and environmental specifications and safety constraints. Offline methods suffer from the parameters of the model being inaccurate, while re-identification of the parameters may not be possible due to the absence of persistency of excitation. Thus, a practical solution is the Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (NMPC without parameter adaptation, where the measured states serve as new initial conditions for the re-optimization problem with a diminishing horizon. In such schemes, it is clear that the optimum cannot be reached due to plant-model mismatch. However, this paper goes one step further in showing that such re-optimization could in certain cases, especially with an economic cost, lead to results worse than the offline optimal input. On the other hand, in absence of process noise, for small parametric variations, if the cost function corresponds to tracking a feasible trajectory, re-optimization always improves performance. This shows inherent robustness associated with the tracking cost. A batch reactor example presents and analyzes the different cases. Re-optimizing led to worse results in some cases with an economical cost function, while no such problem occurred while working with a tracking cost.
The electronic disability record: purpose, parameters, and model use case.
Tulu, Bengisu; Horan, Thomas A
2009-01-01
The active engagement of consumers is an important factor in achieving widespread success of health information systems. The disability community represents a major segment of the healthcare arena, with more than 50 million Americans experiencing some form of disability. In keeping with the "consumer-driven" approach to e-health systems, this paper considers the distinctive aspects of electronic and personal health record use by this segment of society. Drawing upon the information shared during two national policy forums on this topic, the authors present the concept of Electronic Disability Records (EDR). The authors outline the purpose and parameters of such records, with specific attention to its ability to organize health and financial data in a manner that can be used to expedite the disability determination process. In doing so, the authors discuss its interaction with Electronic Health Records (EHR) and Personal Health Records (PHR). The authors then draw upon these general parameters to outline a model use case for disability determination and discuss related implications for disability health management. The paper further reports on the subsequent considerations of these and related deliberations by the American Health Information Community (AHIC).
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shifei Yuan
2015-07-01
Full Text Available Accurate estimation of model parameters and state of charge (SoC is crucial for the lithium-ion battery management system (BMS. In this paper, the stability of the model parameters and SoC estimation under measurement uncertainty is evaluated by three different factors: (i sampling periods of 1/0.5/0.1 s; (ii current sensor precisions of ±5/±50/±500 mA; and (iii voltage sensor precisions of ±1/±2.5/±5 mV. Firstly, the numerical model stability analysis and parametric sensitivity analysis for battery model parameters are conducted under sampling frequency of 1–50 Hz. The perturbation analysis is theoretically performed of current/voltage measurement uncertainty on model parameter variation. Secondly, the impact of three different factors on the model parameters and SoC estimation was evaluated with the federal urban driving sequence (FUDS profile. The bias correction recursive least square (CRLS and adaptive extended Kalman filter (AEKF algorithm were adopted to estimate the model parameters and SoC jointly. Finally, the simulation results were compared and some insightful findings were concluded. For the given battery model and parameter estimation algorithm, the sampling period, and current/voltage sampling accuracy presented a non-negligible effect on the estimation results of model parameters. This research revealed the influence of the measurement uncertainty on the model parameter estimation, which will provide the guidelines to select a reasonable sampling period and the current/voltage sensor sampling precisions in engineering applications.
Smirnov, S. E.; Mikhailova, G. A.; Mikhailov, Yu. M.; Kapustina, O. V.
2017-09-01
The diurnal variations in electrical (quasistatic electric field and electrical conductivity) and meteorological (temperature, pressure, relative humidity of the atmosphere, and wind speed) parameters, measured simultaneously before strong earthquakes in Kamchatka region (November 15, 2006, M = 8.3; January 13, 2007, M = 8.1; January 30, 2016, M = 7.2), are studied for the first time in detail. It is found that a successively anomalous increase in temperature, despite the negative regular trend in these winter months, was observed in the period of six-seven days before the occurrences of earthquakes. An anomalous temperature increase led to the formation of "winter thunderstorm" conditions in the near-surface atmosphere of Kamchatka region, which was manifested in the appearance of an anomalous, type 2 electrical signal, the amplification of and intensive variations in electrical conductivity, heavy precipitation (snow showers), high relative humidity of air, storm winds, and pressure changes. With the weak flow of natural heat radiation in this season, the observed dynamics of electric and meteorological processes can likely be explained by the appearance of an additional heat source of seismic nature.
Boskova, Veronika; Stadler, Tanja; Magnus, Carsten
2018-01-01
Each new virus introduced into the human population could potentially spread and cause a worldwide epidemic. Thus, early quantification of epidemic spread is crucial. Real-time sequencing followed by Bayesian phylodynamic analysis has proven to be extremely informative in this respect. Bayesian phylodynamic analyses require a model to be chosen and prior distributions on model parameters to be specified. We study here how choices regarding the tree prior influence quantification of epidemic spread in an emerging epidemic by focusing on estimates of the parameters clock rate, tree height, and reproductive number in the currently ongoing Zika virus epidemic in the Americas. While parameter estimates are quite robust to reasonable variations in the model settings when studying the complete data set, it is impossible to obtain unequivocal estimates when reducing the data to local Zika epidemics in Brazil and Florida, USA. Beyond the empirical insights, this study highlights the conceptual differences between the so-called birth-death and coalescent tree priors: while sequence sampling times alone can strongly inform the tree height and reproductive number under a birth-death model, the coalescent tree height prior is typically only slightly influenced by this information. Such conceptual differences together with non-trivial interactions of different priors complicate proper interpretation of empirical results. Overall, our findings indicate that phylodynamic analyses of early viral spread data must be carried out with care as data sets may not necessarily be informative enough yet to provide estimates robust to prior settings. It is necessary to do a robustness check of these data sets by scanning several models and prior distributions. Only if the posterior distributions are robust to reasonable changes of the prior distribution, the parameter estimates can be trusted. Such robustness tests will help making real-time phylodynamic analyses of spreading epidemic more
Nandan, Shyam; Ouillon, Guy; Wiemer, Stefan; Sornette, Didier
2017-07-01
The Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is widely employed to model the spatiotemporal distribution of earthquakes, generally using spatially invariant parameters. We propose an efficient method for the estimation of spatially varying parameters, using the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm and spatial Voronoi tessellation ensembles. We use the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) to rank inverted models given their likelihood and complexity and select the best models to finally compute an ensemble model at any location. Using a synthetic catalog, we also check that the proposed method correctly inverts the known parameters. We apply the proposed method to earthquakes included in the Advanced National Seismic System catalog that occurred within the time period 1981-2015 in a spatial polygon around California. The results indicate significant spatial variation of the ETAS parameters. We find that the efficiency of earthquakes to trigger future ones (quantified by the branching ratio) positively correlates with surface heat flow. In contrast, the rate of earthquakes triggered by far-field tectonic loading or background seismicity rate shows no such correlation, suggesting the relevance of triggering possibly through fluid-induced activation. Furthermore, the branching ratio and background seismicity rate are found to be uncorrelated with hypocentral depths, indicating that the seismic coupling remains invariant of hypocentral depths in the study region. Additionally, triggering seems to be mostly dominated by small earthquakes. Consequently, the static stress change studies should not only focus on the Coulomb stress changes caused by specific moderate to large earthquakes but also account for the secondary static stress changes caused by smaller earthquakes.
The S-parameter in Holographic Technicolor Models
Agashe, Kaustubh; Grojean, Christophe; Reece, Matthew
2007-01-01
We study the S parameter, considering especially its sign, in models of electroweak symmetry breaking (EWSB) in extra dimensions, with fermions localized near the UV brane. Such models are conjectured to be dual to 4D strong dynamics triggering EWSB. The motivation for such a study is that a negative value of S can significantly ameliorate the constraints from electroweak precision data on these models, allowing lower mass scales (TeV or below) for the new particles and leading to easier discovery at the LHC. We first extend an earlier proof of S>0 for EWSB by boundary conditions in arbitrary metric to the case of general kinetic functions for the gauge fields or arbitrary kinetic mixing. We then consider EWSB in the bulk by a Higgs VEV showing that S is positive for arbitrary metric and Higgs profile, assuming that the effects from higher-dimensional operators in the 5D theory are sub-leading and can therefore be neglected. For the specific case of AdS_5 with a power law Higgs profile, we also show that S ~ ...
Extracting Structure Parameters of Dimers for Molecular Tunneling Ionization Model
Zhao, Song-Feng; Huang, Fang; Wang, Guo-Li; Zhou, Xiao-Xin
2016-03-01
We determine structure parameters of the highest occupied molecular orbital (HOMO) of 27 dimers for the molecular tunneling ionization (so called MO-ADK) model of Tong et al. [Phys. Rev. A 66 (2002) 033402]. The molecular wave functions with correct asymptotic behavior are obtained by solving the time-independent Schrödinger equation with B-spline functions and molecular potentials which are numerically created using the density functional theory. We examine the alignment-dependent tunneling ionization probabilities from MO-ADK model for several molecules by comparing with the molecular strong-field approximation (MO-SFA) calculations. We show the molecular Perelomov–Popov–Terent'ev (MO-PPT) can successfully give the laser wavelength dependence of ionization rates (or probabilities). Based on the MO-PPT model, two diatomic molecules having valence orbital with antibonding systems (i.e., Cl2, Ne2) show strong ionization suppression when compared with their corresponding closest companion atoms. Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 11164025, 11264036, 11465016, 11364038, the Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China under Grant No. 20116203120001, and the Basic Scientific Research Foundation for Institution of Higher Learning of Gansu Province
Sound propagation and absorption in foam - A distributed parameter model.
Manson, L.; Lieberman, S.
1971-01-01
Liquid-base foams are highly effective sound absorbers. A better understanding of the mechanisms of sound absorption in foams was sought by exploration of a mathematical model of bubble pulsation and coupling and the development of a distributed-parameter mechanical analog. A solution by electric-circuit analogy was thus obtained and transmission-line theory was used to relate the physical properties of the foams to the characteristic impedance and propagation constants of the analog transmission line. Comparison of measured physical properties of the foam with values obtained from measured acoustic impedance and propagation constants and the transmission-line theory showed good agreement. We may therefore conclude that the sound propagation and absorption mechanisms in foam are accurately described by the resonant response of individual bubbles coupled to neighboring bubbles.
Wentworth, Mami Tonoe
Uncertainty quantification plays an important role when making predictive estimates of model responses. In this context, uncertainty quantification is defined as quantifying and reducing uncertainties, and the objective is to quantify uncertainties in parameter, model and measurements, and propagate the uncertainties through the model, so that one can make a predictive estimate with quantified uncertainties. Two of the aspects of uncertainty quantification that must be performed prior to propagating uncertainties are model calibration and parameter selection. There are several efficient techniques for these processes; however, the accuracy of these methods are often not verified. This is the motivation for our work, and in this dissertation, we present and illustrate verification frameworks for model calibration and parameter selection in the context of biological and physical models. First, HIV models, developed and improved by [2, 3, 8], describe the viral infection dynamics of an HIV disease. These are also used to make predictive estimates of viral loads and T-cell counts and to construct an optimal control for drug therapy. Estimating input parameters is an essential step prior to uncertainty quantification. However, not all the parameters are identifiable, implying that they cannot be uniquely determined by the observations. These unidentifiable parameters can be partially removed by performing parameter selection, a process in which parameters that have minimal impacts on the model response are determined. We provide verification techniques for Bayesian model calibration and parameter selection for an HIV model. As an example of a physical model, we employ a heat model with experimental measurements presented in [10]. A steady-state heat model represents a prototypical behavior for heat conduction and diffusion process involved in a thermal-hydraulic model, which is a part of nuclear reactor models. We employ this simple heat model to illustrate verification
Benton, E. R.
1986-01-01
A spherical harmonic representation of the geomagnetic field and its secular variation for epoch 1980, designated GSFC(9/84), is derived and evaluated. At three epochs (1977.5, 1980.0, 1982.5) this model incorporates conservation of magnetic flux through five selected patches of area on the core/mantle boundary bounded by the zero contours of vertical magnetic field. These fifteen nonlinear constraints are included like data in an iterative least squares parameter estimation procedure that starts with the recently derived unconstrained field model GSFC (12/83). Convergence is approached within three iterations. The constrained model is evaluated by comparing its predictive capability outside the time span of its data, in terms of residuals at magnetic observatories, with that for the unconstrained model.
Coupled 1D-2D hydrodynamic inundation model for sewer overflow: Influence of modeling parameters
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Adeniyi Ganiyu Adeogun
2015-10-01
Full Text Available This paper presents outcome of our investigation on the influence of modeling parameters on 1D-2D hydrodynamic inundation model for sewer overflow, developed through coupling of an existing 1D sewer network model (SWMM and 2D inundation model (BREZO. The 1D-2D hydrodynamic model was developed for the purpose of examining flood incidence due to surcharged water on overland surface. The investigation was carried out by performing sensitivity analysis on the developed model. For the sensitivity analysis, modeling parameters, such as mesh resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM resolution and roughness were considered. The outcome of the study shows the model is sensitive to changes in these parameters. The performance of the model is significantly influenced, by the Manning's friction value, the DEM resolution and the area of the triangular mesh. Also, changes in the aforementioned modeling parameters influence the Flood characteristics, such as the inundation extent, the flow depth and the velocity across the model domain.
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Lezhnin Sergey
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The two-temperature model of the outflow from a vessel with initial supercritical parameters of medium has been realized. The model uses thermodynamic non-equilibrium relaxation approach to describe phase transitions. Based on a new asymptotic model for computing the relaxation time, the outflow of water with supercritical initial pressure and super- and subcritical temperatures has been calculated.
Natural variations of lithium isotopes in a mammalian model.
Balter, Vincent; Vigier, Nathalie
2014-03-01
Despite lithium's extensive clinical applications, the cellular and molecular basis for the therapeutic effects remains to be elucidated. The large difference in mass between the two lithium isotopes ((6)Li and (7)Li) has prompted biochemists to explore the metabolism of Li by using pure (6)Li and (7)Li labeled drugs. However, experiments were carried out at very high Li concentrations, which did not reflect natural conditions. In the present study, we consider, for the first time, the natural variations of the (7)Li/(6)Li ratio in the organs and body fluids of an animal model, sheep. Each organ seems to be characterized by a specific Li isotope composition. So far, the range of the (7)Li/(6)Li ratio in the sheep body, expressed as δ permil variations relative to the L-SVEC standard (δ(7)Li), is about 40‰, between muscles (∼40‰) and kidney (∼0‰). Relative to a dietary δ(7)Li value of ∼+17‰, serum, red blood cells, muscle, liver, brain and kidney have a (7)Li enrichment of -12‰, -14‰, +22‰, +5‰, -3‰ and -15‰, respectively. The Li isotope composition is likely to be fractionated during intestinal absorption, with a greater absorption of (6)Li relative to (7)Li. According to previous conclusions obtained with (6)Li and (7)Li labeled chemicals, (6)Li appears to diffuse into erythrocytes faster than does (7)Li. However, this does not hold for myocytes and hepatocytes, because these two tissues have a higher δ(7)Li level than serum. Purely diffusive isotopic fractionation would leave all organs (7)Li-depleted relative to the serum, which is not the case, suggesting that active, molecule-specific, isotopic fractionation occurs in the body. Our preliminary results suggest that natural Li isotope variations can shed light on its regulation in the body, being active or passive.
Variations of thermospheric composition according to AE-C data and CTIP modelling
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H. Rishbeth
2004-01-01
Full Text Available Data from the Atmospheric Explorer C satellite, taken at middle and low latitudes in 1975-1978, are used to study latitudinal and month-by-month variations of thermospheric composition. The parameter used is the "compositional Ρ-parameter", related to the neutral atomic oxygen/molecular nitrogen concentration ratio. The midlatitude data show strong winter maxima of the atomic/molecular ratio, which account for the "seasonal anomaly" of the ionospheric F2-layer. When the AE-C data are compared with the empirical MSIS model and the computational CTIP ionosphere-thermosphere model, broadly similar features are found, but the AE-C data give a more molecular thermosphere than do the models, especially CTIP. In particular, CTIP badly overestimates the winter/summer change of composition, more so in the south than in the north. The semiannual variations at the equator and in southern latitudes, shown by CTIP and MSIS, appear more weakly in the AE-C data. Magnetic activity produces a more molecular thermosphere at high latitudes, and at mid-latitudes in summer.
Key words. Atmospheric composition and structure (thermosphere – composition and chemistry
Layout-Aware Compact Model of MOSFET Characteristics Variations Induced by STI Stress
Yamada, Kenta; Sato, Takashi; Amakawa, Shuhei; Nakayama, Noriaki; Masu, Kazuya; Kumashiro, Shigetaka
A compact model is proposed for accurately incorporating effects of STI (shallow trench isolation) stress into post-layout simulation by making layout-dependent corrections to SPICE model parameters. The model takes in-plane (longitudinal and transverse) and normal components of the layout-dependent stress into account, and model formulas are devised from physical considerations. Not only can the model handle the shape of the active-area of any MOSFET conforming to design rules, but also considers distances to neighboring active-areas. Extraction of geometrical parameters from the layout can be performed by standard LVS (layout versus schematic) tools, and the corrections can subsequently be back-annotated into the netlist. The paper spells out the complete formulation by presenting expressions for the mobility and the threshold voltage explicitly by way of example. The model is amply validated by comparisons with experimental data from 90nm-and 65nm-CMOS technologies having the channel orientations of, respectively, ‹110› and ‹100›, both on a (100) surface. The worst-case standard errors turn out to be as small as 1.7% for the saturation current and 8mV for the threshold voltage, as opposed to ˜20% and ˜50mV without the model. Since device characteristics variations due to STI stress constitute a significant part of what have conventionally been treated as random variations, use of the proposed model could enable one to greatly narrow the guardbands required to guarantee a desired yield, thereby facilitating design closure.
Carpenter, D J; Granot, T; Matsuoka, N; Senda, T; Kumar, B V; Thome, J J C; Gordon, C L; Miron, M; Weiner, J; Connors, T; Lerner, H; Friedman, A; Kato, T; Griesemer, A D; Farber, D L
2018-01-01
Organ donors are sources of physiologically healthy organs and tissues for life-saving transplantation, and have been recently used for human immunology studies which are typically confined to the sampling of peripheral blood. Donors comprise a diverse population with different causes of death and clinical outcomes during hospitalization, and the effects of such variations on immune parameters in blood and tissues are not known. We present here a coordinate analysis of innate and adaptive immune components in blood, lymphoid (bone marrow, spleen, lymph nodes), and mucosal (lungs, intestines) sites from a population of brain-dead organ donors (2 months-93 years; n = 291) across eight clinical parameters. Overall, the blood of donors exhibited similar monocyte and lymphocyte content and low serum levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines as healthy controls; however, donor blood had increased neutrophils and serum levels of IL-8, IL-6, and MCP-1 which varied with cause of death. In tissues, the frequency and composition of monocytes, neutrophils, B lymphocytes and T cell subsets in lymphoid or mucosal sites did not vary with clinical state, and was similar in donors independent of the extent of clinical complications. Our results reveal that organ donors maintain tissue homeostasis, and are a valuable resource for fundamental studies in human immunology. © 2017 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.
Achleitner, S; Rinderer, M; Kirnbauer, R
2009-01-01
For the Tyrolean part of the river Inn, a hybrid model for flood forecast has been set up and is currently in its test phase. The system is a hybrid system which comprises of a hydraulic 1D model for the river Inn, and the hydrological models HQsim (Rainfall-runoff-discharge model) and the snow and ice melt model SES for modeling the rainfall runoff form non-glaciated and glaciated tributary catchment respectively. Within this paper the focus is put on the hydrological modeling of the totally 49 connected non-glaciated catchments realized with the software HQsim. In the course of model calibration, the identification of the most sensitive parameters is important aiming at an efficient calibration procedure. The indicators used for explaining the parameter sensitivities were chosen specifically for the purpose of flood forecasting. Finally five model parameters could be identified as being sensitive for model calibration when aiming for a well calibrated model for flood conditions. In addition two parameters were identified which are sensitive in situations where the snow line plays an important role.
Clark, D Angus; Nuttall, Amy K; Bowles, Ryan P
2018-01-01
Latent change score models (LCS) are conceptually powerful tools for analyzing longitudinal data (McArdle & Hamagami, 2001). However, applications of these models typically include constraints on key parameters over time. Although practically useful, strict invariance over time in these parameters is unlikely in real data. This study investigates the robustness of LCS when invariance over time is incorrectly imposed on key change-related parameters. Monte Carlo simulation methods were used to explore the impact of misspecification on parameter estimation, predicted trajectories of change, and model fit in the dual change score model, the foundational LCS. When constraints were incorrectly applied, several parameters, most notably the slope (i.e., constant change) factor mean and autoproportion coefficient, were severely and consistently biased, as were regression paths to the slope factor when external predictors of change were included. Standard fit indices indicated that the misspecified models fit well, partly because mean level trajectories over time were accurately captured. Loosening constraint improved the accuracy of parameter estimates, but estimates were more unstable, and models frequently failed to converge. Results suggest that potentially common sources of misspecification in LCS can produce distorted impressions of developmental processes, and that identifying and rectifying the situation is a challenge.
Modeling temperature variations in a pilot plant thermophilic anaerobic digester.
Valle-Guadarrama, Salvador; Espinosa-Solares, Teodoro; López-Cruz, Irineo L; Domaschko, Max
2011-05-01
A model that predicts temperature changes in a pilot plant thermophilic anaerobic digester was developed based on fundamental thermodynamic laws. The methodology utilized two simulation strategies. In the first, model equations were solved through a searching routine based on a minimal square optimization criterion, from which the overall heat transfer coefficient values, for both biodigester and heat exchanger, were determined. In the second, the simulation was performed with variable values of these overall coefficients. The prediction with both strategies allowed reproducing experimental data within 5% of the temperature span permitted in the equipment by the system control, which validated the model. The temperature variation was affected by the heterogeneity of the feeding and extraction processes, by the heterogeneity of the digestate recirculation through the heating system and by the lack of a perfect mixing inside the biodigester tank. The use of variable overall heat transfer coefficients improved the temperature change prediction and reduced the effect of a non-ideal performance of the pilot plant modeled.
Physical property parameter set for modeling ICPP aqueous wastes with ASPEN electrolyte NRTL model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schindler, R.E.
1996-09-01
The aqueous waste evaporators at the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant (ICPP) are being modeled using ASPEN software. The ASPEN software calculates chemical and vapor-liquid equilibria with activity coefficients calculated using the electrolyte Non-Random Two Liquid (NRTL) model for local excess Gibbs free energies of interactions between ions and molecules in solution. The use of the electrolyte NRTL model requires the determination of empirical parameters for the excess Gibbs free energies of the interactions between species in solution. This report covers the development of a set parameters, from literature data, for the use of the electrolyte NRTL model with the major solutes in the ICPP aqueous wastes
Testing for parameter instability across different modeling frameworks
Calvori, Francesco; Creal, Drew; Koopman, Siem Jan; Lucas, André
2017-01-01
We develop a new parameter instability test that generalizes the seminal ARCHLagrange Multiplier test of Engle (1982) for a constant variance against the alternative of autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity to settings with nonlinear timevarying parameters and non-Gaussian distributions. We
Kong, Xiang-zhen; He, Wei; Qin, Ning; He, Qi-Shuang; Yang, Bin; Ouyang, Huiling; Wang, Qingmei; Yang, Chen; Jiang, Yujiao; Xu, Fuliu
2012-01-01
Fate and seasonal variations of α-hexachlorocyclohexane (α-HCH) were simulated using a dynamic fugacity model in Lake Chaohu, China. Sensitivity analyses were performed to identify influential parameters and Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to assess model uncertainty. The calculated and measured values of the model were in good agreement except for suspended solids, which might be due to disregarding the plankton in water. The major source of α-HCH was an input from atmospheric advection, while the major environmental outputs were atmospheric advection and sediment degradation. The net annual input and output of α-HCH were approximately 0.294 t and 0.412 t, respectively. Sediment was an important sink for α-HCH. Seasonal patterns in various media were successfully modeled and factors leading to this seasonality were discussed. Sensitivity analysis found that parameters of source and degradation were more important than the other parameters. The sediment was influenced more by various parameters than air and water were. Temperature variation had a greater impact on the dynamics of the model output than other dynamic parameters. Uncertainty analysis showed that the model uncertainty was relatively low but significantly increased in the second half of the simulation period due to the increase in the gas-water diffusion flux variability.
Statistical osteoporosis models using composite finite elements: a parameter study.
Wolfram, Uwe; Schwen, Lars Ole; Simon, Ulrich; Rumpf, Martin; Wilke, Hans-Joachim
2009-09-18
Osteoporosis is a widely spread disease with severe consequences for patients and high costs for health care systems. The disease is characterised by a loss of bone mass which induces a loss of mechanical performance and structural integrity. It was found that transverse trabeculae are thinned and perforated while vertical trabeculae stay intact. For understanding these phenomena and the mechanisms leading to fractures of trabecular bone due to osteoporosis, numerous researchers employ micro-finite element models. To avoid disadvantages in setting up classical finite element models, composite finite elements (CFE) can be used. The aim of the study is to test the potential of CFE. For that, a parameter study on numerical lattice samples with statistically simulated, simplified osteoporosis is performed. These samples are subjected to compression and shear loading. Results show that the biggest drop of compressive stiffness is reached for transverse isotropic structures losing 32% of the trabeculae (minus 89.8% stiffness). The biggest drop in shear stiffness is found for an isotropic structure also losing 32% of the trabeculae (minus 67.3% stiffness). The study indicates that losing trabeculae leads to a worse drop of macroscopic stiffness than thinning of trabeculae. The results further demonstrate the advantages of CFEs for simulating micro-structured samples.
Characterization of PV panel and global optimization of its model parameters using genetic algorithm
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ismail, M.S.; Moghavvemi, M.; Mahlia, T.M.I.
2013-01-01
Highlights: • Genetic Algorithm optimization ability had been utilized to extract parameters of PV panel model. • Effect of solar radiation and temperature variations was taken into account in fitness function evaluation. • We used Matlab-Simulink to simulate operation of the PV-panel to validate results. • Different cases were analyzed to ascertain which of them gives more accurate results. • Accuracy and applicability of this approach to be used as a valuable tool for PV modeling were clearly validated. - Abstract: This paper details an improved modeling technique for a photovoltaic (PV) module; utilizing the optimization ability of a genetic algorithm, with different parameters of the PV module being computed via this approach. The accurate modeling of any PV module is incumbent upon the values of these parameters, as it is imperative in the context of any further studies concerning different PV applications. Simulation, optimization and the design of the hybrid systems that include PV are examples of these applications. The global optimization of the parameters and the applicability for the entire range of the solar radiation and a wide range of temperatures are achievable via this approach. The Manufacturer’s Data Sheet information is used as a basis for the purpose of parameter optimization, with an average absolute error fitness function formulated; and a numerical iterative method used to solve the voltage-current relation of the PV module. The results of single-diode and two-diode models are evaluated in order to ascertain which of them are more accurate. Other cases are also analyzed in this paper for the purpose of comparison. The Matlab–Simulink environment is used to simulate the operation of the PV module, depending on the extracted parameters. The results of the simulation are compared with the Data Sheet information, which is obtained via experimentation in order to validate the reliability of the approach. Three types of PV modules
A variational model for histogram transfer of color images.
Papadakis, N; Provenzi, E; Caselles, V
2011-06-01
In this paper, we propose a variational formulation for histogram transfer of two or more color images. We study an energy functional composed by three terms: one tends to approach the cumulative histograms of the transformed images, the other two tend to maintain the colors and geometry of the original images. By minimizing this energy, we obtain an algorithm that balances equalization and the conservation of features of the original images. As a result, they evolve while approaching an intermediate histogram between them. This intermediate histogram does not need to be specified in advance, but it is a natural result of the model. Finally, we provide experiments showing that the proposed method compares well with the state of the art.
Modeling Geomagnetic Variations using a Machine Learning Framework
Cheung, C. M. M.; Handmer, C.; Kosar, B.; Gerules, G.; Poduval, B.; Mackintosh, G.; Munoz-Jaramillo, A.; Bobra, M.; Hernandez, T.; McGranaghan, R. M.
2017-12-01
We present a framework for data-driven modeling of Heliophysics time series data. The Solar Terrestrial Interaction Neural net Generator (STING) is an open source python module built on top of state-of-the-art statistical learning frameworks (traditional machine learning methods as well as deep learning). To showcase the capability of STING, we deploy it for the problem of predicting the temporal variation of geomagnetic fields. The data used includes solar wind measurements from the OMNI database and geomagnetic field data taken by magnetometers at US Geological Survey observatories. We examine the predictive capability of different machine learning techniques (recurrent neural networks, support vector machines) for a range of forecasting times (minutes to 12 hours). STING is designed to be extensible to other types of data. We show how STING can be used on large sets of data from different sensors/observatories and adapted to tackle other problems in Heliophysics.
Modeling Neurovascular Coupling from Clustered Parameter Sets for Multimodal EEG-NIRS
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M. Tanveer Talukdar
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Despite significant improvements in neuroimaging technologies and analysis methods, the fundamental relationship between local changes in cerebral hemodynamics and the underlying neural activity remains largely unknown. In this study, a data driven approach is proposed for modeling this neurovascular coupling relationship from simultaneously acquired electroencephalographic (EEG and near-infrared spectroscopic (NIRS data. The approach uses gamma transfer functions to map EEG spectral envelopes that reflect time-varying power variations in neural rhythms to hemodynamics measured with NIRS during median nerve stimulation. The approach is evaluated first with simulated EEG-NIRS data and then by applying the method to experimental EEG-NIRS data measured from 3 human subjects. Results from the experimental data indicate that the neurovascular coupling relationship can be modeled using multiple sets of gamma transfer functions. By applying cluster analysis, statistically significant parameter sets were found to predict NIRS hemodynamics from EEG spectral envelopes. All subjects were found to have significant clustered parameters (P<0.05 for EEG-NIRS data fitted using gamma transfer functions. These results suggest that the use of gamma transfer functions followed by cluster analysis of the resulting parameter sets may provide insights into neurovascular coupling in human neuroimaging data.
Modeling seasonal surface temperature variations in secondary tropical dry forests
Cao, Sen; Sanchez-Azofeifa, Arturo
2017-10-01
Secondary tropical dry forests (TDFs) provide important ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation, and nutrient cycle regulation. However, their biogeophysical processes at the canopy-atmosphere interface remain unknown, limiting our understanding of how this endangered ecosystem influences, and responds to the ongoing global warming. To facilitate future development of conservation policies, this study characterized the seasonal land surface temperature (LST) behavior of three successional stages (early, intermediate, and late) of a TDF, at the Santa Rosa National Park (SRNP), Costa Rica. A total of 38 Landsat-8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) data and the Surface Reflectance (SR) product were utilized to model LST time series from July 2013 to July 2016 using a radiative transfer equation (RTE) algorithm. We further related the LST time series to seven vegetation indices which reflect different properties of TDFs, and soil moisture data obtained from a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN). Results showed that the LST in the dry season was 15-20 K higher than in the wet season at SRNP. We found that the early successional stages were about 6-8 K warmer than the intermediate successional stages and were 9-10 K warmer than the late successional stages in the middle of the dry season; meanwhile, a minimum LST difference (0-1 K) was observed at the end of the wet season. Leaf phenology and canopy architecture explained most LST variations in both dry and wet seasons. However, our analysis revealed that it is precipitation that ultimately determines the LST variations through both biogeochemical (leaf phenology) and biogeophysical processes (evapotranspiration) of the plants. Results of this study could help physiological modeling studies in secondary TDFs.