WorldWideScience

Sample records for model parameter sensitivities

  1. Modelling of intermittent microwave convective drying: parameter sensitivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Zhijun

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The reliability of the predictions of a mathematical model is a prerequisite to its utilization. A multiphase porous media model of intermittent microwave convective drying is developed based on the literature. The model considers the liquid water, gas and solid matrix inside of food. The model is simulated by COMSOL software. Its sensitivity parameter is analysed by changing the parameter values by ±20%, with the exception of several parameters. The sensitivity analysis of the process of the microwave power level shows that each parameter: ambient temperature, effective gas diffusivity, and evaporation rate constant, has significant effects on the process. However, the surface mass, heat transfer coefficient, relative and intrinsic permeability of the gas, and capillary diffusivity of water do not have a considerable effect. The evaporation rate constant has minimal parameter sensitivity with a ±20% value change, until it is changed 10-fold. In all results, the temperature and vapour pressure curves show the same trends as the moisture content curve. However, the water saturation at the medium surface and in the centre show different results. Vapour transfer is the major mass transfer phenomenon that affects the drying process.

  2. Modelling of intermittent microwave convective drying: parameter sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhijun; Qin, Wenchao; Shi, Bin; Gao, Jingxin; Zhang, Shiwei

    2017-06-01

    The reliability of the predictions of a mathematical model is a prerequisite to its utilization. A multiphase porous media model of intermittent microwave convective drying is developed based on the literature. The model considers the liquid water, gas and solid matrix inside of food. The model is simulated by COMSOL software. Its sensitivity parameter is analysed by changing the parameter values by ±20%, with the exception of several parameters. The sensitivity analysis of the process of the microwave power level shows that each parameter: ambient temperature, effective gas diffusivity, and evaporation rate constant, has significant effects on the process. However, the surface mass, heat transfer coefficient, relative and intrinsic permeability of the gas, and capillary diffusivity of water do not have a considerable effect. The evaporation rate constant has minimal parameter sensitivity with a ±20% value change, until it is changed 10-fold. In all results, the temperature and vapour pressure curves show the same trends as the moisture content curve. However, the water saturation at the medium surface and in the centre show different results. Vapour transfer is the major mass transfer phenomenon that affects the drying process.

  3. Model parameters estimation and sensitivity by genetic algorithms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marseguerra, Marzio; Zio, Enrico; Podofillini, Luca

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we illustrate the possibility of extracting qualitative information on the importance of the parameters of a model in the course of a Genetic Algorithms (GAs) optimization procedure for the estimation of such parameters. The Genetic Algorithms' search of the optimal solution is performed according to procedures that resemble those of natural selection and genetics: an initial population of alternative solutions evolves within the search space through the four fundamental operations of parent selection, crossover, replacement, and mutation. During the search, the algorithm examines a large amount of solution points which possibly carries relevant information on the underlying model characteristics. A possible utilization of this information amounts to create and update an archive with the set of best solutions found at each generation and then to analyze the evolution of the statistics of the archive along the successive generations. From this analysis one can retrieve information regarding the speed of convergence and stabilization of the different control (decision) variables of the optimization problem. In this work we analyze the evolution strategy followed by a GA in its search for the optimal solution with the aim of extracting information on the importance of the control (decision) variables of the optimization with respect to the sensitivity of the objective function. The study refers to a GA search for optimal estimates of the effective parameters in a lumped nuclear reactor model of literature. The supporting observation is that, as most optimization procedures do, the GA search evolves towards convergence in such a way to stabilize first the most important parameters of the model and later those which influence little the model outputs. In this sense, besides estimating efficiently the parameters values, the optimization approach also allows us to provide a qualitative ranking of their importance in contributing to the model output. The

  4. Local sensitivity analysis of a distributed parameters water quality model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pastres, R.; Franco, D.; Pecenik, G.; Solidoro, C.; Dejak, C.

    1997-01-01

    A local sensitivity analysis is presented of a 1D water-quality reaction-diffusion model. The model describes the seasonal evolution of one of the deepest channels of the lagoon of Venice, that is affected by nutrient loads from the industrial area and heat emission from a power plant. Its state variables are: water temperature, concentrations of reduced and oxidized nitrogen, Reactive Phosphorous (RP), phytoplankton, and zooplankton densities, Dissolved Oxygen (DO) and Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD). Attention has been focused on the identifiability and the ranking of the parameters related to primary production in different mixing conditions

  5. Parameter sensitivity and identifiability for a biogeochemical model of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Local sensitivity analyses and identifiable parameter subsets were used to describe numerical constraints of a hypoxia model for bottom waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico. The sensitivity of state variables differed considerably with parameter changes, although most variables ...

  6. An approach to measure parameter sensitivity in watershed hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hydrologic responses vary spatially and temporally according to watershed characteristics. In this study, the hydrologic models that we developed earlier for the Little Miami River (LMR) and Las Vegas Wash (LVW) watersheds were used for detail sensitivity analyses. To compare the...

  7. Parameter sensitivity analysis of a lumped-parameter model of a chain of lymphangions in series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamalian, Samira; Bertram, Christopher D; Richardson, William J; Moore, James E

    2013-12-01

    Any disruption of the lymphatic system due to trauma or injury can lead to edema. There is no effective cure for lymphedema, partly because predictive knowledge of lymphatic system reactions to interventions is lacking. A well-developed model of the system could greatly improve our understanding of its function. Lymphangions, defined as the vessel segment between two valves, are the individual pumping units. Based on our previous lumped-parameter model of a chain of lymphangions, this study aimed to identify the parameters that affect the system output the most using a sensitivity analysis. The system was highly sensitive to minimum valve resistance, such that variations in this parameter caused an order-of-magnitude change in time-average flow rate for certain values of imposed pressure difference. Average flow rate doubled when contraction frequency was increased within its physiological range. Optimum lymphangion length was found to be some 13-14.5 diameters. A peak of time-average flow rate occurred when transmural pressure was such that the pressure-diameter loop for active contractions was centered near maximum passive vessel compliance. Increasing the number of lymphangions in the chain improved the pumping in the presence of larger adverse pressure differences. For a given pressure difference, the optimal number of lymphangions increased with the total vessel length. These results indicate that further experiments to estimate valve resistance more accurately are necessary. The existence of an optimal value of transmural pressure may provide additional guidelines for increasing pumping in areas affected by edema.

  8. Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for a storm surge and wave model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. A. Bastidas

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Development and simulation of synthetic hurricane tracks is a common methodology used to estimate hurricane hazards in the absence of empirical coastal surge and wave observations. Such methods typically rely on numerical models to translate stochastically generated hurricane wind and pressure forcing into coastal surge and wave estimates. The model output uncertainty associated with selection of appropriate model parameters must therefore be addressed. The computational overburden of probabilistic surge hazard estimates is exacerbated by the high dimensionality of numerical surge and wave models. We present a model parameter sensitivity analysis of the Delft3D model for the simulation of hazards posed by Hurricane Bob (1991 utilizing three theoretical wind distributions (NWS23, modified Rankine, and Holland. The sensitive model parameters (of 11 total considered include wind drag, the depth-induced breaking γB, and the bottom roughness. Several parameters show no sensitivity (threshold depth, eddy viscosity, wave triad parameters, and depth-induced breaking αB and can therefore be excluded to reduce the computational overburden of probabilistic surge hazard estimates. The sensitive model parameters also demonstrate a large number of interactions between parameters and a nonlinear model response. While model outputs showed sensitivity to several parameters, the ability of these parameters to act as tuning parameters for calibration is somewhat limited as proper model calibration is strongly reliant on accurate wind and pressure forcing data. A comparison of the model performance with forcings from the different wind models is also presented.

  9. Geomagnetically induced currents in Uruguay: Sensitivity to modelling parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caraballo, R.

    2016-11-01

    According to the traditional wisdom, geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) should occur rarely at mid-to-low latitudes, but in the last decades a growing number of reports have addressed their effects on high-voltage (HV) power grids at mid-to-low latitudes. The growing trend to interconnect national power grids to meet regional integration objectives, may lead to an increase in the size of the present energy transmission networks to form a sort of super-grid at continental scale. Such a broad and heterogeneous super-grid can be exposed to the effects of large GIC if appropriate mitigation actions are not taken into consideration. In the present study, we present GIC estimates for the Uruguayan HV power grid during severe magnetic storm conditions. The GIC intensities are strongly dependent on the rate of variation of the geomagnetic field, conductivity of the ground, power grid resistances and configuration. Calculated GIC are analysed as functions of these parameters. The results show a reasonable agreement with measured data in Brazil and Argentina, thus confirming the reliability of the model. The expansion of the grid leads to a strong increase in GIC intensities in almost all substations. The power grid response to changes in ground conductivity and resistances shows similar results in a minor extent. This leads us to consider GIC as a non-negligible phenomenon in South America. Consequently, GIC must be taken into account in mid-to-low latitude power grids as well.

  10. Personalization of models with many model parameters: an efficient sensitivity analysis approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donders, W P; Huberts, W; van de Vosse, F N; Delhaas, T

    2015-10-01

    Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis are indispensable for patient-specific applications of models that enhance diagnosis or aid decision-making. Variance-based sensitivity analysis methods, which apportion each fraction of the output uncertainty (variance) to the effects of individual input parameters or their interactions, are considered the gold standard. The variance portions are called the Sobol sensitivity indices and can be estimated by a Monte Carlo (MC) approach (e.g., Saltelli's method [1]) or by employing a metamodel (e.g., the (generalized) polynomial chaos expansion (gPCE) [2, 3]). All these methods require a large number of model evaluations when estimating the Sobol sensitivity indices for models with many parameters [4]. To reduce the computational cost, we introduce a two-step approach. In the first step, a subset of important parameters is identified for each output of interest using the screening method of Morris [5]. In the second step, a quantitative variance-based sensitivity analysis is performed using gPCE. Efficient sampling strategies are introduced to minimize the number of model runs required to obtain the sensitivity indices for models considering multiple outputs. The approach is tested using a model that was developed for predicting post-operative flows after creation of a vascular access for renal failure patients. We compare the sensitivity indices obtained with the novel two-step approach with those obtained from a reference analysis that applies Saltelli's MC method. The two-step approach was found to yield accurate estimates of the sensitivity indices at two orders of magnitude lower computational cost. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. Evaluating the influence of selected parameters on sensitivity of a numerical model of solidification

    OpenAIRE

    N. Sczygiol; R. Dyja

    2007-01-01

    Presented paper contains evaluation of influence of selected parameters on sensitivity of a numerical model of solidification. The investigated model is based on the heat conduction equation with a heat source and solved using the finite element method (FEM). The model is built with the use of enthalpy formulation for solidification and using an intermediate solid fraction growth model. The model sensitivity is studied with the use of Morris method, which is one of global sensitivity methods....

  12. An approach to measure parameter sensitivity in watershed hydrologic modeling

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Abstract Hydrologic responses vary spatially and temporally according to watershed characteristics. In this study, the hydrologic models that we developed earlier...

  13. Process verification of a hydrological model using a temporal parameter sensitivity analysis

    OpenAIRE

    M. Pfannerstill; B. Guse; D. Reusser; N. Fohrer

    2015-01-01

    To ensure reliable results of hydrological models, it is essential that the models reproduce the hydrological process dynamics adequately. Information about simulated process dynamics is provided by looking at the temporal sensitivities of the corresponding model parameters. For this, the temporal dynamics of parameter sensitivity are analysed to identify the simulated hydrological processes. Based on these analyses it can be verified if the simulated hydrological processes ...

  14. Land Building Models: Uncertainty in and Sensitivity to Input Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    Vicksburg, MS: US Army Engineer Research and Development Center. An electronic copy of this CHETN is available from http://chl.erdc.usace.army.mil/chetn...Nourishment Module, Chapter 8. In Coastal Louisiana Ecosystem Assessment and Restoration (CLEAR) Model of Louisiana Coastal Area ( LCA ) Comprehensive

  15. Sensitivity analysis of specific activity model parameters for environmental transport of 3H and dose assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rout, S.; Mishra, D.G.; Ravi, P.M.; Tripathi, R.M.

    2016-01-01

    Tritium is one of the radionuclides likely to get released to the environment from Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors. Environmental models are extensively used to quantify the complex environmental transport processes of radionuclides and also to assess the impact to the environment. Model parameters exerting the significant influence on model results are identified through a sensitivity analysis (SA). SA is the study of how the variation (uncertainty) in the output of a mathematical model can be apportioned, qualitatively or quantitatively, to different sources of variation in the input parameters. This study was designed to identify the sensitive model parameters of specific activity model (TRS 1616, IAEA) for environmental transfer of 3 H following release to air and then to vegetation and animal products. Model includes parameters such as air to soil transfer factor (CRs), Tissue Free Water 3 H to Organically Bound 3 H ratio (Rp), Relative humidity (RH), WCP (fractional water content) and WEQp (water equivalent factor) any change in these parameters leads to change in 3 H level in vegetation and animal products consequently change in dose due to ingestion. All these parameters are function of climate and/or plant which change with time, space and species. Estimation of these parameters at every time is a time consuming and also required sophisticated instrumentation. Therefore it is necessary to identify the sensitive parameters and freeze the values of least sensitive parameters at constant values for more accurate estimation of 3 H dose in short time for routine assessment

  16. Characterizing parameter sensitivity and uncertainty for a snow model across hydroclimatic regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Minxue; Hogue, Terri S.; Franz, Kristie J.; Margulis, Steven A.; Vrugt, Jasper A.

    2011-01-01

    The National Weather Service (NWS) uses the SNOW17 model to forecast snow accumulation and ablation processes in snow-dominated watersheds nationwide. Successful application of the SNOW17 relies heavily on site-specific estimation of model parameters. The current study undertakes a comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of SNOW17 model parameters using forcing and snow water equivalent (SWE) data from 12 sites with differing meteorological and geographic characteristics. The Generalized Sensitivity Analysis and the recently developed Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm are utilized to explore the parameter space and assess model parametric and predictive uncertainty. Results indicate that SNOW17 parameter sensitivity and uncertainty generally varies between sites. Of the six hydroclimatic characteristics studied, only air temperature shows strong correlation with the sensitivity and uncertainty ranges of two parameters, while precipitation is highly correlated with the uncertainty of one parameter. Posterior marginal distributions of two parameters are also shown to be site-dependent in terms of distribution type. The SNOW17 prediction ensembles generated by the DREAM-derived posterior parameter sets contain most of the observed SWE. The proposed uncertainty analysis provides posterior parameter information on parameter uncertainty and distribution types that can serve as a foundation for a data assimilation framework for hydrologic models.

  17. Quantification of remodeling parameter sensitivity - assessed by a computer simulation model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, J.S.; Mosekilde, Li.; Mosekilde, Erik

    1996-01-01

    We have used a computer simulation model to evaluate the effect of several bone remodeling parameters on vertebral cancellus bone. The menopause was chosen as the base case scenario, and the sensitivity of the model to the following parameters was investigated: activation frequency, formation bal....... However, the formation balance was responsible for the greater part of total mass loss....

  18. Sensitivity Analysis of CLIMEX Parameters in Modeling Potential Distribution of Phoenix dactylifera L.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shabani, Farzin; Kumar, Lalit

    2014-01-01

    Using CLIMEX and the Taguchi Method, a process-based niche model was developed to estimate potential distributions of Phoenix dactylifera L. (date palm), an economically important crop in many counties. Development of the model was based on both its native and invasive distribution and validation was carried out in terms of its extensive distribution in Iran. To identify model parameters having greatest influence on distribution of date palm, a sensitivity analysis was carried out. Changes in suitability were established by mapping of regions where the estimated distribution changed with parameter alterations. This facilitated the assessment of certain areas in Iran where parameter modifications impacted the most, particularly in relation to suitable and highly suitable locations. Parameter sensitivities were also evaluated by the calculation of area changes within the suitable and highly suitable categories. The low temperature limit (DV2), high temperature limit (DV3), upper optimal temperature (SM2) and high soil moisture limit (SM3) had the greatest impact on sensitivity, while other parameters showed relatively less sensitivity or were insensitive to change. For an accurate fit in species distribution models, highly sensitive parameters require more extensive research and data collection methods. Results of this study demonstrate a more cost effective method for developing date palm distribution models, an integral element in species management, and may prove useful for streamlining requirements for data collection in potential distribution modeling for other species as well. PMID:24722140

  19. Sensitivity analysis of CLIMEX parameters in modeling potential distribution of Phoenix dactylifera L.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farzin Shabani

    Full Text Available Using CLIMEX and the Taguchi Method, a process-based niche model was developed to estimate potential distributions of Phoenix dactylifera L. (date palm, an economically important crop in many counties. Development of the model was based on both its native and invasive distribution and validation was carried out in terms of its extensive distribution in Iran. To identify model parameters having greatest influence on distribution of date palm, a sensitivity analysis was carried out. Changes in suitability were established by mapping of regions where the estimated distribution changed with parameter alterations. This facilitated the assessment of certain areas in Iran where parameter modifications impacted the most, particularly in relation to suitable and highly suitable locations. Parameter sensitivities were also evaluated by the calculation of area changes within the suitable and highly suitable categories. The low temperature limit (DV2, high temperature limit (DV3, upper optimal temperature (SM2 and high soil moisture limit (SM3 had the greatest impact on sensitivity, while other parameters showed relatively less sensitivity or were insensitive to change. For an accurate fit in species distribution models, highly sensitive parameters require more extensive research and data collection methods. Results of this study demonstrate a more cost effective method for developing date palm distribution models, an integral element in species management, and may prove useful for streamlining requirements for data collection in potential distribution modeling for other species as well.

  20. MOESHA: A genetic algorithm for automatic calibration and estimation of parameter uncertainty and sensitivity of hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Characterization of uncertainty and sensitivity of model parameters is an essential and often overlooked facet of hydrological modeling. This paper introduces an algorithm called MOESHA that combines input parameter sensitivity analyses with a genetic algorithm calibration routin...

  1. Parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis for a mathematical model with time delays of leukemia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cândea, Doina; Halanay, Andrei; Rǎdulescu, Rodica; Tǎlmaci, Rodica

    2017-01-01

    We consider a system of nonlinear delay differential equations that describes the interaction between three competing cell populations: healthy, leukemic and anti-leukemia T cells involved in Chronic Myeloid Leukemia (CML) under treatment with Imatinib. The aim of this work is to establish which model parameters are the most important in the success or failure of leukemia remission under treatment using a sensitivity analysis of the model parameters. For the most significant parameters of the model which affect the evolution of CML disease during Imatinib treatment we try to estimate the realistic values using some experimental data. For these parameters, steady states are calculated and their stability is analyzed and biologically interpreted.

  2. The sensitivity of flowline models of tidewater glaciers to parameter uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. M. Enderlin

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Depth-integrated (1-D flowline models have been widely used to simulate fast-flowing tidewater glaciers and predict change because the continuous grounding line tracking, high horizontal resolution, and physically based calving criterion that are essential to realistic modeling of tidewater glaciers can easily be incorporated into the models while maintaining high computational efficiency. As with all models, the values for parameters describing ice rheology and basal friction must be assumed and/or tuned based on observations. For prognostic studies, these parameters are typically tuned so that the glacier matches observed thickness and speeds at an initial state, to which a perturbation is applied. While it is well know that ice flow models are sensitive to these parameters, the sensitivity of tidewater glacier models has not been systematically investigated. Here we investigate the sensitivity of such flowline models of outlet glacier dynamics to uncertainty in three key parameters that influence a glacier's resistive stress components. We find that, within typical observational uncertainty, similar initial (i.e., steady-state glacier configurations can be produced with substantially different combinations of parameter values, leading to differing transient responses after a perturbation is applied. In cases where the glacier is initially grounded near flotation across a basal over-deepening, as typically observed for rapidly changing glaciers, these differences can be dramatic owing to the threshold of stability imposed by the flotation criterion. The simulated transient response is particularly sensitive to the parameterization of ice rheology: differences in ice temperature of ~ 2 °C can determine whether the glaciers thin to flotation and retreat unstably or remain grounded on a marine shoal. Due to the highly non-linear dependence of tidewater glaciers on model parameters, we recommend that their predictions are accompanied by

  3. Sensitivity of predicted bioaerosol exposure from open windrow composting facilities to ADMS dispersion model parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, P; Tyrrel, S F; Kinnersley, R P; Whelan, M; Longhurst, P J; Walsh, K; Pollard, S J T; Drew, G H

    2016-12-15

    Bioaerosols are released in elevated quantities from composting facilities and are associated with negative health effects, although dose-response relationships are not well understood, and require improved exposure classification. Dispersion modelling has great potential to improve exposure classification, but has not yet been extensively used or validated in this context. We present a sensitivity analysis of the ADMS dispersion model specific to input parameter ranges relevant to bioaerosol emissions from open windrow composting. This analysis provides an aid for model calibration by prioritising parameter adjustment and targeting independent parameter estimation. Results showed that predicted exposure was most sensitive to the wet and dry deposition modules and the majority of parameters relating to emission source characteristics, including pollutant emission velocity, source geometry and source height. This research improves understanding of the accuracy of model input data required to provide more reliable exposure predictions. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  4. Evaluating the influence of selected parameters on sensitivity of a numerical model of solidification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Sczygiol

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Presented paper contains evaluation of influence of selected parameters on sensitivity of a numerical model of solidification. The investigated model is based on the heat conduction equation with a heat source and solved using the finite element method (FEM. The model is built with the use of enthalpy formulation for solidification and using an intermediate solid fraction growth model. The model sensitivity is studied with the use of Morris method, which is one of global sensitivity methods. Characteristic feature of the global methods is necessity to conduct a series of simulations applying the investigated model with appropriately chosen model parameters. The advantage of Morris method is possibility to reduce the number of necessary simulations. Results of the presented work allow to answer the question how generic sensitivity analysis results are, particularly if sensitivity analysis results depend only on model characteristics and not on things such as density of the finite element mesh or shape of the region. Results of this research allow to conclude that sensitivity analysis with use of Morris method depends only on characteristic of the investigated model.

  5. Parameter sensitivity analysis of a 1-D cold region lake model for land-surface schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerrero, José-Luis; Pernica, Patricia; Wheater, Howard; Mackay, Murray; Spence, Chris

    2017-12-01

    Lakes might be sentinels of climate change, but the uncertainty in their main feedback to the atmosphere - heat-exchange fluxes - is often not considered within climate models. Additionally, these fluxes are seldom measured, hindering critical evaluation of model output. Analysis of the Canadian Small Lake Model (CSLM), a one-dimensional integral lake model, was performed to assess its ability to reproduce diurnal and seasonal variations in heat fluxes and the sensitivity of simulated fluxes to changes in model parameters, i.e., turbulent transport parameters and the light extinction coefficient (Kd). A C++ open-source software package, Problem Solving environment for Uncertainty Analysis and Design Exploration (PSUADE), was used to perform sensitivity analysis (SA) and identify the parameters that dominate model behavior. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) was applied to quantify the fluxes' uncertainty, comparing daily-averaged eddy-covariance observations to the output of CSLM. Seven qualitative and two quantitative SA methods were tested, and the posterior likelihoods of the modeled parameters, obtained from the GLUE analysis, were used to determine the dominant parameters and the uncertainty in the modeled fluxes. Despite the ubiquity of the equifinality issue - different parameter-value combinations yielding equivalent results - the answer to the question was unequivocal: Kd, a measure of how much light penetrates the lake, dominates sensible and latent heat fluxes, and the uncertainty in their estimates is strongly related to the accuracy with which Kd is determined. This is important since accurate and continuous measurements of Kd could reduce modeling uncertainty.

  6. Modeling a production scale milk drying process: parameter estimation, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ferrari, A.; Gutierrez, S.; Sin, Gürkan

    2016-01-01

    A steady state model for a production scale milk drying process was built to help process understanding and optimization studies. It involves a spray chamber and also internal/external fluid beds. The model was subjected to a comprehensive statistical analysis for quality assurance using...... sensitivity analysis of inputs/parameters, and uncertainty analysis to estimate confidence intervals on parameters and model predictions (error propagation). Variance based sensitivity analysis (Sobol's method) was used to quantify the influence of inputs on the final powder moisture as the model output...... at chamber inlet air (variation > 100%). The sensitivity analysis results suggest exploring improvements in the current control (Proportional Integral Derivative) for moisture content at concentrate chamber feed in order to reduce the output variance. It is also confirmed that humidity control at chamber...

  7. Sensitivity Analysis and Parameter Estimation for a Reactive Transport Model of Uranium Bioremediation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, P. D.; Yabusaki, S.; Curtis, G. P.; Ye, M.; Fang, Y.

    2011-12-01

    A three-dimensional, variably-saturated flow and multicomponent biogeochemical reactive transport model of uranium bioremediation was used to generate synthetic data . The 3-D model was based on a field experiment at the U.S. Dept. of Energy Rifle Integrated Field Research Challenge site that used acetate biostimulation of indigenous metal reducing bacteria to catalyze the conversion of aqueous uranium in the +6 oxidation state to immobile solid-associated uranium in the +4 oxidation state. A key assumption in past modeling studies at this site was that a comprehensive reaction network could be developed largely through one-dimensional modeling. Sensitivity analyses and parameter estimation were completed for a 1-D reactive transport model abstracted from the 3-D model to test this assumption, to identify parameters with the greatest potential to contribute to model predictive uncertainty, and to evaluate model structure and data limitations. Results showed that sensitivities of key biogeochemical concentrations varied in space and time, that model nonlinearities and/or parameter interactions have a significant impact on calculated sensitivities, and that the complexity of the model's representation of processes affecting Fe(II) in the system may make it difficult to correctly attribute observed Fe(II) behavior to modeled processes. Non-uniformity of the 3-D simulated groundwater flux and averaging of the 3-D synthetic data for use as calibration targets in the 1-D modeling resulted in systematic errors in the 1-D model parameter estimates and outputs. This occurred despite using the same reaction network for 1-D modeling as used in the data-generating 3-D model. Predictive uncertainty of the 1-D model appeared to be significantly underestimated by linear parameter uncertainty estimates.

  8. Sensitivity Analysis of Input Parameters for a Dynamic Food Chain Model DYNACON

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, Won Tae; Lee, Geun Chang; Han, Moon Hee; Cho, Gyu Seong

    2000-01-01

    The sensitivity analysis of input parameters for a dynamic food chain model DYNACON was conducted as a function of deposition data for the long-lived radionuclides ( 137 Cs, 90 Sr). Also, the influence of input parameters for the short and long-terms contamination of selected foodstuffs (cereals, leafy vegetables, milk) was investigated. The input parameters were sampled using the LHS technique, and their sensitivity indices represented as PRCC. The sensitivity index was strongly dependent on contamination period as well as deposition data. In case of deposition during the growing stages of plants, the input parameters associated with contamination by foliar absorption were relatively important in long-term contamination as well as short-term contamination. They were also important in short-term contamination in case of deposition during the non-growing stages. In long-term contamination, the influence of input parameters associated with foliar absorption decreased, while the influence of input parameters associated with root uptake increased. These phenomena were more remarkable in case of the deposition of non-growing stages than growing stages, and in case of 90 Sr deposition than 137 Cs deposition. In case of deposition during growing stages of pasture, the input parameters associated with the characteristics of cattle such as feed-milk transfer factor and daily intake rate of cattle were relatively important in contamination of milk

  9. Comprehensive study on parameter sensitivity for flow and nutrient modeling in the Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Chuan; Li, Zhaofu; Wu, Min; Jiang, Kaixia; Chen, Xiaomin; Li, Hengpeng

    2017-09-01

    Numerous parameters are used to construct the HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran) model, which results in significant difficulty in calibrating the model. Parameter sensitivity analysis is an efficient method to identify important model parameters. Through this method, a model's calibration process can be simplified on the basis of understanding the model's structure. This study investigated the sensitivity of the flow and nutrient parameters of HSPF using the DSA (differential sensitivity analysis) method in the Xitiaoxi watershed, China. The results showed that flow was mostly affected by parameters related to groundwater and evapotranspiration, including DEEPFR (fraction of groundwater inflow to deep recharge), LZETP (lower-zone evapotranspiration parameter), and AGWRC (base groundwater recession), and most of the sensitive parameters had negative and nonlinear effects on flow. Additionally, nutrient components were commonly affected by parameters from land processes, including MON-SQOLIM (monthly values limiting storage of water quality in overland flow), MON-ACCUM (monthly values of accumulation), MON-IFLW-CONC (monthly concentration of water quality in interflow), and MON-GRND-CONC (monthly concentration of water quality in active groundwater). Besides, parameters from river systems, KATM20 (unit oxidation rate of total ammonia at 20 °C) had a negative and almost linear effect on ammonia concentration and MALGR (maximal unit algal growth rate for phytoplankton) had a negative and nonlinear effect on ammonia and orthophosphate concentrations. After calibrating these sensitive parameters, our model performed well for simulating flow and nutrient outputs, with R 2 and E NS (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency) both greater than 0.75 for flow and greater than 0.5 for nutrient components. This study is expected to serve as a valuable complement to the documentation of the HSPF model to help users identify key parameters and provide a reference for performing

  10. Influence of parameter values on the oscillation sensitivities of two p53-Mdm2 models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuba, Christian E; Valle, Alexander R; Ayala-Charca, Giancarlo; Villota, Elizabeth R; Coronado, Alberto M

    2015-09-01

    Biomolecular networks that present oscillatory behavior are ubiquitous in nature. While some design principles for robust oscillations have been identified, it is not well understood how these oscillations are affected when the kinetic parameters are constantly changing or are not precisely known, as often occurs in cellular environments. Many models of diverse complexity level, for systems such as circadian rhythms, cell cycle or the p53 network, have been proposed. Here we assess the influence of hundreds of different parameter sets on the sensitivities of two configurations of a well-known oscillatory system, the p53 core network. We show that, for both models and all parameter sets, the parameter related to the p53 positive feedback, i.e. self-promotion, is the only one that presents sizeable sensitivities on extrema, periods and delay. Moreover, varying the parameter set values to change the dynamical characteristics of the response is more restricted in the simple model, whereas the complex model shows greater tunability. These results highlight the importance of the presence of specific network patterns, in addition to the role of parameter values, when we want to characterize oscillatory biochemical systems.

  11. Parameter sensitivity analysis of a 1-D cold region lake model for land-surface schemes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-L. Guerrero

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Lakes might be sentinels of climate change, but the uncertainty in their main feedback to the atmosphere – heat-exchange fluxes – is often not considered within climate models. Additionally, these fluxes are seldom measured, hindering critical evaluation of model output. Analysis of the Canadian Small Lake Model (CSLM, a one-dimensional integral lake model, was performed to assess its ability to reproduce diurnal and seasonal variations in heat fluxes and the sensitivity of simulated fluxes to changes in model parameters, i.e., turbulent transport parameters and the light extinction coefficient (Kd. A C++ open-source software package, Problem Solving environment for Uncertainty Analysis and Design Exploration (PSUADE, was used to perform sensitivity analysis (SA and identify the parameters that dominate model behavior. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE was applied to quantify the fluxes' uncertainty, comparing daily-averaged eddy-covariance observations to the output of CSLM. Seven qualitative and two quantitative SA methods were tested, and the posterior likelihoods of the modeled parameters, obtained from the GLUE analysis, were used to determine the dominant parameters and the uncertainty in the modeled fluxes. Despite the ubiquity of the equifinality issue – different parameter-value combinations yielding equivalent results – the answer to the question was unequivocal: Kd, a measure of how much light penetrates the lake, dominates sensible and latent heat fluxes, and the uncertainty in their estimates is strongly related to the accuracy with which Kd is determined. This is important since accurate and continuous measurements of Kd could reduce modeling uncertainty.

  12. Parameter sensitivity analysis for activated sludge models No. 1 and 3 combined with one-dimensional settling model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J R; Ko, J H; Lee, J J; Kim, S H; Park, T J; Kim, C W; Woo, H J

    2006-01-01

    The aim of this study was to suggest a sensitivity analysis technique that can reliably predict effluent quality and minimize calibration efforts without being seriously affected by influent composition and parameter uncertainty in the activated sludge models No. 1 (ASM1) and No. 3 (ASM3) with a settling model. The parameter sensitivities for ASM1 and ASM3 were analyzed by three techniques such as SVM-Slope, RVM-SlopeMA, and RVM-AreaCRF. The settling model parameters were also considered. The selected highly sensitive parameters were estimated with a genetic algorithm, and the simulation results were compared as deltaEQ. For ASM1, the SVM-Slope technique proved to be an acceptable approach because it identified consistent sensitive parameter sets and presented smaller deltaEQ under every tested condition. For ASM3, no technique identified consistently sensitive parameters under different conditions. This phenomenon was regarded as the reflection of the high sensitivity of the ASM3 parameters. But it should be noted that the SVM-Slope technique presented reliable deltaEQ under every influent condition. Moreover, it was the simplest and easiest methodology for coding and quantification among those tested. Therefore, it was concluded that the SVM-Slope technique could be a reasonable approach for both ASM1 and ASM3.

  13. Identification of sensitive parameters in the modeling of SVOC reemission processes from soil to atmosphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loizeau, Vincent; Ciffroy, Philippe; Roustan, Yelva; Musson-Genon, Luc

    2014-09-15

    Semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) are subject to Long-Range Atmospheric Transport because of transport-deposition-reemission successive processes. Several experimental data available in the literature suggest that soil is a non-negligible contributor of SVOCs to atmosphere. Then coupling soil and atmosphere in integrated coupled models and simulating reemission processes can be essential for estimating atmospheric concentration of several pollutants. However, the sources of uncertainty and variability are multiple (soil properties, meteorological conditions, chemical-specific parameters) and can significantly influence the determination of reemissions. In order to identify the key parameters in reemission modeling and their effect on global modeling uncertainty, we conducted a sensitivity analysis targeted on the 'reemission' output variable. Different parameters were tested, including soil properties, partition coefficients and meteorological conditions. We performed EFAST sensitivity analysis for four chemicals (benzo-a-pyrene, hexachlorobenzene, PCB-28 and lindane) and different spatial scenari (regional and continental scales). Partition coefficients between air, solid and water phases are influent, depending on the precision of data and global behavior of the chemical. Reemissions showed a lower variability to soil parameters (soil organic matter and water contents at field capacity and wilting point). A mapping of these parameters at a regional scale is sufficient to correctly estimate reemissions when compared to other sources of uncertainty. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation for distributed hydrological modeling: potential of variational methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Castaings

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Variational methods are widely used for the analysis and control of computationally intensive spatially distributed systems. In particular, the adjoint state method enables a very efficient calculation of the derivatives of an objective function (response function to be analysed or cost function to be optimised with respect to model inputs.

    In this contribution, it is shown that the potential of variational methods for distributed catchment scale hydrology should be considered. A distributed flash flood model, coupling kinematic wave overland flow and Green Ampt infiltration, is applied to a small catchment of the Thoré basin and used as a relatively simple (synthetic observations but didactic application case.

    It is shown that forward and adjoint sensitivity analysis provide a local but extensive insight on the relation between the assigned model parameters and the simulated hydrological response. Spatially distributed parameter sensitivities can be obtained for a very modest calculation effort (~6 times the computing time of a single model run and the singular value decomposition (SVD of the Jacobian matrix provides an interesting perspective for the analysis of the rainfall-runoff relation.

    For the estimation of model parameters, adjoint-based derivatives were found exceedingly efficient in driving a bound-constrained quasi-Newton algorithm. The reference parameter set is retrieved independently from the optimization initial condition when the very common dimension reduction strategy (i.e. scalar multipliers is adopted.

    Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis results suggest that most of the variability in this high-dimensional parameter space can be captured with a few orthogonal directions. A parametrization based on the SVD leading singular vectors was found very promising but should be combined with another regularization strategy in order to prevent overfitting.

  15. Sensitivity analysis in oxidation ditch modelling: the effect of variations in stoichiometric, kinetic and operating parameters on the performance indices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abusam, A.A.A.; Keesman, K.J.; Straten, van G.; Spanjers, H.; Meinema, K.

    2001-01-01

    This paper demonstrates the application of the factorial sensitivity analysis methodology in studying the influence of variations in stoichiometric, kinetic and operating parameters on the performance indices of an oxidation ditch simulation model (benchmark). Factorial sensitivity analysis

  16. Parametric uncertainty and global sensitivity analysis in a model of the carotid bifurcation: Identification and ranking of most sensitive model parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gul, R; Bernhard, S

    2015-11-01

    In computational cardiovascular models, parameters are one of major sources of uncertainty, which make the models unreliable and less predictive. In order to achieve predictive models that allow the investigation of the cardiovascular diseases, sensitivity analysis (SA) can be used to quantify and reduce the uncertainty in outputs (pressure and flow) caused by input (electrical and structural) model parameters. In the current study, three variance based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) methods; Sobol, FAST and a sparse grid stochastic collocation technique based on the Smolyak algorithm were applied on a lumped parameter model of carotid bifurcation. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to identify and rank most sensitive parameters as well as to fix less sensitive parameters at their nominal values (factor fixing). In this context, network location and temporal dependent sensitivities were also discussed to identify optimal measurement locations in carotid bifurcation and optimal temporal regions for each parameter in the pressure and flow waves, respectively. Results show that, for both pressure and flow, flow resistance (R), diameter (d) and length of the vessel (l) are sensitive within right common carotid (RCC), right internal carotid (RIC) and right external carotid (REC) arteries, while compliance of the vessels (C) and blood inertia (L) are sensitive only at RCC. Moreover, Young's modulus (E) and wall thickness (h) exhibit less sensitivities on pressure and flow at all locations of carotid bifurcation. Results of network location and temporal variabilities revealed that most of sensitivity was found in common time regions i.e. early systole, peak systole and end systole. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Sensitivity of precipitation to parameter values in the community atmosphere model version 5

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johannesson, Gardar; Lucas, Donald; Qian, Yun; Swiler, Laura Painton; Wildey, Timothy Michael

    2014-03-01

    One objective of the Climate Science for a Sustainable Energy Future (CSSEF) program is to develop the capability to thoroughly test and understand the uncertainties in the overall climate model and its components as they are being developed. The focus on uncertainties involves sensitivity analysis: the capability to determine which input parameters have a major influence on the output responses of interest. This report presents some initial sensitivity analysis results performed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LNNL), Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). In the 2011-2012 timeframe, these laboratories worked in collaboration to perform sensitivity analyses of a set of CAM5, 2° runs, where the response metrics of interest were precipitation metrics. The three labs performed their sensitivity analysis (SA) studies separately and then compared results. Overall, the results were quite consistent with each other although the methods used were different. This exercise provided a robustness check of the global sensitivity analysis metrics and identified some strongly influential parameters.

  18. [Sensitivity analysis of AnnAGNPS model's hydrology and water quality parameters based on the perturbation analysis method].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xi, Qing; Li, Zhao-Fu; Luo, Chuan

    2014-05-01

    Sensitivity analysis of hydrology and water quality parameters has a great significance for integrated model's construction and application. Based on AnnAGNPS model's mechanism, terrain, hydrology and meteorology, field management, soil and other four major categories of 31 parameters were selected for the sensitivity analysis in Zhongtian river watershed which is a typical small watershed of hilly region in the Taihu Lake, and then used the perturbation method to evaluate the sensitivity of the parameters to the model's simulation results. The results showed that: in the 11 terrain parameters, LS was sensitive to all the model results, RMN, RS and RVC were generally sensitive and less sensitive to the output of sediment but insensitive to the remaining results. For hydrometeorological parameters, CN was more sensitive to runoff and sediment and relatively sensitive for the rest results. In field management, fertilizer and vegetation parameters, CCC, CRM and RR were less sensitive to sediment and particulate pollutants, the six fertilizer parameters (FR, FD, FID, FOD, FIP, FOP) were particularly sensitive for nitrogen and phosphorus nutrients. For soil parameters, K is quite sensitive to all the results except the runoff, the four parameters of the soil's nitrogen and phosphorus ratio (SONR, SINR, SOPR, SIPR) were less sensitive to the corresponding results. The simulation and verification results of runoff in Zhongtian watershed show a good accuracy with the deviation less than 10% during 2005- 2010. Research results have a direct reference value on AnnAGNPS model's parameter selection and calibration adjustment. The runoff simulation results of the study area also proved that the sensitivity analysis was practicable to the parameter's adjustment and showed the adaptability to the hydrology simulation in the Taihu Lake basin's hilly region and provide reference for the model's promotion in China.

  19. An Investigation on the Sensitivity of the Parameters of Urban Flood Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    M, A. B.; Lohani, B.; Jain, A.

    2015-12-01

    Global climatic change has triggered weather patterns which lead to heavy and sudden rainfall in different parts of world. The impact of heavy rainfall is severe especially on urban areas in the form of urban flooding. In order to understand the effect of heavy rainfall induced flooding, it is necessary to model the entire flooding scenario more accurately, which is now becoming possible with the availability of high resolution airborne LiDAR data and other real time observations. However, there is not much understanding on the optimal use of these data and on the effect of other parameters on the performance of the flood model. This study aims at developing understanding on these issues. In view of the above discussion, the aim of this study is to (i) understand that how the use of high resolution LiDAR data improves the performance of urban flood model, and (ii) understand the sensitivity of various hydrological parameters on urban flood modelling. In this study, modelling of flooding in urban areas due to heavy rainfall is carried out considering Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur, India as the study site. The existing model MIKE FLOOD, which is accepted by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), is used along with the high resolution airborne LiDAR data. Once the model is setup it is made to run by changing the parameters such as resolution of Digital Surface Model (DSM), manning's roughness, initial losses, catchment description, concentration time, runoff reduction factor. In order to realize this, the results obtained from the model are compared with the field observations. The parametric study carried out in this work demonstrates that the selection of catchment description plays a very important role in urban flood modelling. Results also show the significant impact of resolution of DSM, initial losses and concentration time on urban flood model. This study will help in understanding the effect of various parameters that should be part of a

  20. On Approaches to Analyze the Sensitivity of Simulated Hydrologic Fluxes to Model Parameters in the Community Land Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Bao

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Effective sensitivity analysis approaches are needed to identify important parameters or factors and their uncertainties in complex Earth system models composed of multi-phase multi-component phenomena and multiple biogeophysical-biogeochemical processes. In this study, the impacts of 10 hydrologic parameters in the Community Land Model on simulations of runoff and latent heat flux are evaluated using data from a watershed. Different metrics, including residual statistics, the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient, and log mean square error, are used as alternative measures of the deviations between the simulated and field observed values. Four sensitivity analysis (SA approaches, including analysis of variance based on the generalized linear model, generalized cross validation based on the multivariate adaptive regression splines model, standardized regression coefficients based on a linear regression model, and analysis of variance based on support vector machine, are investigated. Results suggest that these approaches show consistent measurement of the impacts of major hydrologic parameters on response variables, but with differences in the relative contributions, particularly for the secondary parameters. The convergence behaviors of the SA with respect to the number of sampling points are also examined with different combinations of input parameter sets and output response variables and their alternative metrics. This study helps identify the optimal SA approach, provides guidance for the calibration of the Community Land Model parameters to improve the model simulations of land surface fluxes, and approximates the magnitudes to be adjusted in the parameter values during parametric model optimization.

  1. Sensitivity of subject-specific models to Hill muscle-tendon model parameters in simulations of gait

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carbone, Vincenzo; van der Krogt, Marjolein; Koopman, Hubertus F.J.M.; Verdonschot, Nicolaas Jacobus Joseph

    2016-01-01

    Subject-specific musculoskeletal (MS) models of the lower extremity are essential for applications such as predicting the effects of orthopedic surgery. We performed an extensive sensitivity analysis to assess the effects of potential errors in Hill muscle–tendon (MT) model parameters for each of

  2. Sensitivity of subject-specific models to Hill muscle-tendon model parameters in simulations of gait

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carbone, V.; Krogt, M.M. van der; Koopman, H.F.J.M.; Verdonschot, N.J.

    2016-01-01

    Subject-specific musculoskeletal (MS) models of the lower extremity are essential for applications such as predicting the effects of orthopedic surgery. We performed an extensive sensitivity analysis to assess the effects of potential errors in Hill muscle-tendon (MT) model parameters for each of

  3. [Parameter sensitivity of simulating net primary productivity of Larix olgensis forest based on BIOME-BGC model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Li-hong; Wang, Hai-yan; Lei, Xiang-dong

    2016-02-01

    Model based on vegetation ecophysiological process contains many parameters, and reasonable parameter values will greatly improve simulation ability. Sensitivity analysis, as an important method to screen out the sensitive parameters, can comprehensively analyze how model parameters affect the simulation results. In this paper, we conducted parameter sensitivity analysis of BIOME-BGC model with a case study of simulating net primary productivity (NPP) of Larix olgensis forest in Wangqing, Jilin Province. First, with the contrastive analysis between field measurement data and the simulation results, we tested the BIOME-BGC model' s capability of simulating the NPP of L. olgensis forest. Then, Morris and EFAST sensitivity methods were used to screen the sensitive parameters that had strong influence on NPP. On this basis, we also quantitatively estimated the sensitivity of the screened parameters, and calculated the global, the first-order and the second-order sensitivity indices. The results showed that the BIOME-BGC model could well simulate the NPP of L. olgensis forest in the sample plot. The Morris sensitivity method provided a reliable parameter sensitivity analysis result under the condition of a relatively small sample size. The EFAST sensitivity method could quantitatively measure the impact of simulation result of a single parameter as well as the interaction between the parameters in BIOME-BGC model. The influential sensitive parameters for L. olgensis forest NPP were new stem carbon to new leaf carbon allocation and leaf carbon to nitrogen ratio, the effect of their interaction was significantly greater than the other parameter' teraction effect.

  4. Analysis of Evapotranspiration Model Sensitivity to Climate and Vegetation Parameters With Dependence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, M. C.

    2013-12-01

    ; Saltelli, 2002) to assess the sensitivity of a PM ET model to both climate and vegetation input variables, and the first applied use of a Sobol' SA analogue method (Kucherenko et al., 2012) developed for correlated input variables. This study finds that without accounting for correlated input variables, PM ET is not sensitive to vegetation variables relative to climate variables. However, accounting for input variable dependence yields different results. In an arid climate example, first order (individual variable) sensitivities are higher, total (variable interaction) sensitivities are lower, and climate and vegetation variables are more closely ranked in terms of their total sensitivities. Because Sobol' type SAs are used to evaluate environmental models broadly, and environmental variables are in many cases correlated, this study provides an example of how not accounting for all model input variables and their correlation can result in inaccurate estimates of the sensitivity of models to their parameters. This research illustrates the importance of accounting for parameter dependence when a SA is being used for parameterization and calibration guidance, and/or assessments of the sensitivity of model outputs to changes in environmental inputs. The latter is particularly relevant for climate change studies.

  5. Global Sensitivity Analysis for Identifying Important Parameters of Nitrogen Nitrification and Denitrification under Model and Scenario Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, M.; Chen, Z.; Shi, L.; Zhu, Y.; Yang, J.

    2017-12-01

    Nitrogen reactive transport modeling is subject to uncertainty in model parameters, structures, and scenarios. While global sensitivity analysis is a vital tool for identifying the parameters important to nitrogen reactive transport, conventional global sensitivity analysis only considers parametric uncertainty. This may result in inaccurate selection of important parameters, because parameter importance may vary under different models and modeling scenarios. By using a recently developed variance-based global sensitivity analysis method, this paper identifies important parameters with simultaneous consideration of parametric uncertainty, model uncertainty, and scenario uncertainty. In a numerical example of nitrogen reactive transport modeling, a combination of three scenarios of soil temperature and two scenarios of soil moisture leads to a total of six scenarios. Four alternative models are used to evaluate reduction functions used for calculating actual rates of nitrification and denitrification. The model uncertainty is tangled with scenario uncertainty, as the reduction functions depend on soil temperature and moisture content. The results of sensitivity analysis show that parameter importance varies substantially between different models and modeling scenarios, which may lead to inaccurate selection of important parameters if model and scenario uncertainties are not considered. This problem is avoided by using the new method of sensitivity analysis in the context of model averaging and scenario averaging. The new method of sensitivity analysis can be applied to other problems of contaminant transport modeling when model uncertainty and/or scenario uncertainty are present.

  6. Sensitivity testing practice on pre-processing parameters in hard and soft coupled modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Ignaszak

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper pays attention to the problem of practical applicability of coupled modeling with the use of hard and soft models types and necessity of adapted to that models data base possession. The data base tests results for cylindrical 30 mm diameter casting made of AlSi7Mg alloy were presented. In simulation tests that were applied the Calcosoft system with CAFE (Cellular Automaton Finite Element module. This module which belongs to „multiphysics” models enables structure prediction of complete casting with division of columnar and equiaxed crystals zones of -phase. Sensitivity tests of coupled model on the particular values parameters changing were made. On these basis it was determined the relations of CET (columnar-to-equaiaxed transition zone position influence. The example of virtual structure validation based on real structure with CET zone location and grain size was shown.

  7. A statistical bias correction for climate model data: parameter sensitivity analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piani, C.; Coppola, E.; Mariotti, L.; Haerter, J.; Hagemann, S.

    2009-04-01

    Water management adaptation strategies depend crucially on high quality projections of the hydrological cycle in view of anthropogenic climate change. The goodness of hydrological cycle projections depends, in turn, on the successful coupling of hydrological models to global (GCMs) or regional climate models (RCMs). It is well known within the climate modelling community that hydrological forcing output from climate models, in particular precipitation, is partially affected by large bias. The bias affects all aspects of the statistics, that is the mean, standard deviation (variability), skewness (drizzle versus intense events, dry days) etc. The state-of-the-art approach to bias correction is based on histogram equalization techniques. Such techniques intrinsically correct all moments of the statistical intensity distribution. However these methods are applicable to hydrological projections to the extent that the correction itself is robust, that is, defined by few parameters that are well constrained by available data and constant in time. Here we present details of the statistical bias correction methodology developed within the European project "Water and Global Change" (WATCH). We will suggest different versions of the method that allow it to be taylored to differently structured biases from different RCMs. Crucially, application of the methodology also allows for a sensitivity analysis of the correction parameters on other gridded variables such as orography and land use. Here we explore some of these sensitivities as well.

  8. The SSI TOOLBOX Source Term Model SOSIM - Screening for important radionuclides and parameter sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila Moreno, R.; Barrdahl, R.; Haegg, C.

    1995-05-01

    The main objective of the present study was to carry out a screening and a sensitivity analysis of the SSI TOOLBOX source term model SOSIM. This model is a part of the SSI TOOLBOX for radiological impact assessment of the Swedish disposal concept for high-level waste KBS-3. The outputs of interest for this purpose were: the total released fraction, the time of total release, the time and value of maximum release rate, the dose rates after direct releases of the biosphere. The source term equations were derived and simple equations and methods were proposed for calculation of these. A literature survey has been performed in order to determine a characteristic variation range and a nominal value for each model parameter. In order to reduce the model uncertainties the authors recommend a change in the initial boundary condition for solution of the diffusion equation for highly soluble nuclides. 13 refs

  9. Optimization and Modeling of Quadrupole Orbitrap Parameters for Sensitive Analysis toward Single-Cell Proteomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Bingyun; Kovatch, Jessica Rae; Badiong, Albert; Merbouh, Nabyl

    2017-10-06

    Single-cell proteomics represents a field of extremely sensitive proteomic analysis, owing to the minute amount of yet complex proteins in a single cell. Without amplification potential as of nucleic acids, single-cell mass spectrometry (MS) analysis demands special instrumentation running with optimized parameters to maximize the sensitivity and throughput for comprehensive proteomic discovery. To facilitate such analysis, we here investigated two factors critical to peptide sequencing and protein detection in shotgun proteomics, i.e. precursor ion isolation window (IW) and maximum precursor ion injection time (ITmax), on an ultrahigh-field quadrupole Orbitrap (Q-Exactive HF). Counterintuitive to the frequently used proteomic parameters for bulk samples (>100 ng), our experimental data and subsequent modeling suggested a universally optimal IW of 4.0 Th for sample quantity ranging from 100 ng to 1 ng, and a sample-quantity dependent ITmax of more than 250 ms for 1-ng samples. Compared with the benchmark condition of IW = 2.0 Th and ITmax = 50 ms, our optimization generated up to 300% increase to the detected protein groups for 1-ng samples. The additionally identified proteins allowed deeper penetration of proteome for better revealing crucial cellular functions such as signaling and cell adhesion. We hope this effort can prompt single-cell and trace proteomic analysis and enable a rational selection of MS parameters.

  10. Sensitivity of subject-specific models to Hill muscle-tendon model parameters in simulations of gait.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carbone, V; van der Krogt, M M; Koopman, H F J M; Verdonschot, N

    2016-06-14

    Subject-specific musculoskeletal (MS) models of the lower extremity are essential for applications such as predicting the effects of orthopedic surgery. We performed an extensive sensitivity analysis to assess the effects of potential errors in Hill muscle-tendon (MT) model parameters for each of the 56 MT parts contained in a state-of-the-art MS model. We used two metrics, namely a Local Sensitivity Index (LSI) and an Overall Sensitivity Index (OSI), to distinguish the effect of the perturbation on the predicted force produced by the perturbed MT parts and by all the remaining MT parts, respectively, during a simulated gait cycle. Results indicated that sensitivity of the model depended on the specific role of each MT part during gait, and not merely on its size and length. Tendon slack length was the most sensitive parameter, followed by maximal isometric muscle force and optimal muscle fiber length, while nominal pennation angle showed very low sensitivity. The highest sensitivity values were found for the MT parts that act as prime movers of gait (Soleus: average OSI=5.27%, Rectus Femoris: average OSI=4.47%, Gastrocnemius: average OSI=3.77%, Vastus Lateralis: average OSI=1.36%, Biceps Femoris Caput Longum: average OSI=1.06%) and hip stabilizers (Gluteus Medius: average OSI=3.10%, Obturator Internus: average OSI=1.96%, Gluteus Minimus: average OSI=1.40%, Piriformis: average OSI=0.98%), followed by the Peroneal muscles (average OSI=2.20%) and Tibialis Anterior (average OSI=1.78%) some of which were not included in previous sensitivity studies. Finally, the proposed priority list provides quantitative information to indicate which MT parts and which MT parameters should be estimated most accurately to create detailed and reliable subject-specific MS models. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Parameter Sensitivity of High–Order Equivalent Circuit Models Of Turbine Generator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Niewierowicz–Swiecicka

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This work shows the results of a parametric sensitivity analysis applied to a state–space representation of high–order two–axis equivalent circuits (ECs of a turbo generator (150 MVA, 120 MW, 13.8 kV y 50 Hz. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate each parameter impact on the transient response of the analyzed two–axis models –d–axis ECs with one to five damper branches and q–axis ECs from one to four damper branches–. The parametric sensitivity concept is formulated in a general context and the sensibility function is established from the generator response to a short circuit condition. Results ponder the importance played by each parameter in the model behavior. The algorithms were design within MATLAB® environment. The study gives way to conclusions on electromagnetic aspects of solid rotor synchronous generators that have not been previously studied. The methodology presented here can be applied to any other physical system.

  12. Identification of sensitive parameters in the modeling of SVOCs reemission processes from soil to atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loizeau, Vincent; Ciffroy, Philippe; Musson Genon, Luc; Roustan, Yelva

    2013-04-01

    Many studies have shown that semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) are subject to Long-Range Atmospheric Transport (LRAT) and that such a transport may occur through a series of deposition-reemission events at the soil surface-air interface. This periodic movement of pollutants between soil and atmosphere is called the 'grasshopper effect'. Thus, it appears necessary to take into account the exchange between soil and atmosphere to properly simulate the fate of these pollutants at regional or global scale. The prediction of reemission from soils is however associated with large uncertainties, which can be schematically classified into three main sources : (i) natural variability, including nature of soil (organic matter content, porosity, water content) and meteorological conditions ; (ii) uncertainty about intrinsic properties of chemicals, like degradation rate or partitioning between environmental components, which govern the dynamics of chemicals in air and soils ; (iii) model structure, and particularly the discretization of soil compartment. Considering this background, a major challenge is to identify the most sensitive sources of uncertainty in modelling the reemission of chemicals from soils, in order to know where the priority has to be set for upgrading SVOC dispersion estimation. To answer this question, we studied a multi-layer soil model, including exchanges between soil and atmosphere. A sensitivity analysis was conducted by affecting probability density functions for each of model parameters. Four chemicals were selected (Benzo(a)Pyrene, PCB-28, Lindane and Hexachlorobenzene) because of their contrasted behaviors in soils, as expected by their partition and degradation properties. For this first exercise, simple emission scenarii were considered, i.e. a period of constant concentration in air (where realistic concentrations were estimated for each chemical from monitoring data provided by EMEP) followed by a zero-concentration in air. Although

  13. Application of Penalized Regression Techniques in Modelling Insulin Sensitivity by Correlated Metabolic Parameters.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian S Göbl

    Full Text Available This paper aims to introduce penalized estimation techniques in clinical investigations of diabetes, as well as to assess their possible advantages and limitations. Data from a previous study was used to carry out the simulations to assess: a which procedure results in the lowest prediction error of the final model in the setting of a large number of predictor variables with high multicollinearity (of importance if insulin sensitivity should be predicted and b which procedure achieves the most accurate estimate of regression coefficients in the setting of fewer predictors with small unidirectional effects and moderate correlation between explanatory variables (of importance if the specific relation between an independent variable and insulin sensitivity should be examined. Moreover a special focus is on the correct direction of estimated parameter effects, a non-negligible source of error and misinterpretation of study results. The simulations were performed for varying sample size to evaluate the performance of LASSO, Ridge as well as different algorithms for Elastic Net. These methods were also compared with automatic variable selection procedures (i.e. optimizing AIC or BIC.We were not able to identify one method achieving superior performance in all situations. However, the improved accuracy of estimated effects underlines the importance of using penalized regression techniques in our example (e.g. if a researcher aims to compare relations of several correlated parameters with insulin sensitivity. However, the decision which procedure should be used depends on the specific context of a study (accuracy versus complexity and moreover should involve clinical prior knowledge.

  14. Sensitivity analysis for the study of influential parameters in tyre models

    OpenAIRE

    Kiébré, Rimyaledgo; Anstett-Collin, Floriane; Basset, Michel

    2011-01-01

    International audience; This paper studies two tyre models, the Fiala model and the Pacejka model. Both models are nonlinear and depend on parameters which must be identified from measurement data. A major problem is to efficiently prepare and plan the experiments. It is necessary to determine the parameters which have the greatest influence on the model output, and account for the output uncertainty which must be reduced. Therefore, the methodology presented here will help to carry out a var...

  15. Global sensitivity analysis of the joint kinematics during gait to the parameters of a lower limb multi-body model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Habachi, Aimad; Moissenet, Florent; Duprey, Sonia; Cheze, Laurence; Dumas, Raphaël

    2015-07-01

    Sensitivity analysis is a typical part of biomechanical models evaluation. For lower limb multi-body models, sensitivity analyses have been mainly performed on musculoskeletal parameters, more rarely on the parameters of the joint models. This study deals with a global sensitivity analysis achieved on a lower limb multi-body model that introduces anatomical constraints at the ankle, tibiofemoral, and patellofemoral joints. The aim of the study was to take into account the uncertainty of parameters (e.g. 2.5 cm on the positions of the skin markers embedded in the segments, 5° on the orientation of hinge axis, 2.5 mm on the origin and insertion of ligaments) using statistical distributions and propagate it through a multi-body optimisation method used for the computation of joint kinematics from skin markers during gait. This will allow us to identify the most influential parameters on the minimum of the objective function of the multi-body optimisation (i.e. the sum of the squared distances between measured and model-determined skin marker positions) and on the joint angles and displacements. To quantify this influence, a Fourier-based algorithm of global sensitivity analysis coupled with a Latin hypercube sampling is used. This sensitivity analysis shows that some parameters of the motor constraints, that is to say the distances between measured and model-determined skin marker positions, and the kinematic constraints are highly influencing the joint kinematics obtained from the lower limb multi-body model, for example, positions of the skin markers embedded in the shank and pelvis, parameters of the patellofemoral hinge axis, and parameters of the ankle and tibiofemoral ligaments. The resulting standard deviations on the joint angles and displacements reach 36° and 12 mm. Therefore, personalisation, customisation or identification of these most sensitive parameters of the lower limb multi-body models may be considered as essential.

  16. A preliminary assessment of glacier melt-model parameter sensitivity and transferability in a dry subarctic environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. H. MacDougall

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Efforts to project the long-term melt of mountain glaciers and ice-caps require that melt models developed and calibrated for well studied locations be transferable over large regions. Here we assess the sensitivity and transferability of parameters within several commonly used melt models for two proximal sites in a dry subarctic environment of northwestern Canada. The models range in complexity from a classical degree-day model to a simplified energy-balance model. Parameter sensitivity is first evaluated by tuning the melt models to the output of an energy balance model forced with idealized inputs. This exercise allows us to explore parameter sensitivity both to glacier geometric attributes and surface characteristics, as well as to meteorological conditions. We then investigate the effect of model tuning with different statistics, including a weighted coefficient of determination (wR2, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency criterion (E, mean absolute error (MAE and root mean squared error (RMSE. Finally we examine model parameter transferability between two neighbouring glaciers over two melt seasons using mass balance data collected in the St. Elias Mountains of the southwest Yukon. The temperature-index model parameters appear generally sensitive to glacier aspect, mean surface elevation, albedo, wind speed, mean annual temperature and temperature lapse rate. The simplified energy balance model parameters are sensitive primarily to snow albedo. Model tuning with E, MAE and RMSE produces similar, or in some cases identical, parameter values. In twelve tests of spatial and/or temporal parameter transferability, the results with the lowest RMSE values with respect to ablation stake measurements were achieved twice with a classical temperature-index (degree-day model, three times with a temperature-index model in which the melt parameter is a function of potential radiation, and seven times with a simplified energy

  17. Parameter optimization, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis of an ecosystem model at a forest flux tower site in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shuguang; Huang, Zhihong; Yan, Wende

    2014-01-01

    Ecosystem models are useful tools for understanding ecological processes and for sustainable management of resources. In biogeochemical field, numerical models have been widely used for investigating carbon dynamics under global changes from site to regional and global scales. However, it is still challenging to optimize parameters and estimate parameterization uncertainty for complex process-based models such as the Erosion Deposition Carbon Model (EDCM), a modified version of CENTURY, that consider carbon, water, and nutrient cycles of ecosystems. This study was designed to conduct the parameter identifiability, optimization, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis of EDCM using our developed EDCM-Auto, which incorporated a comprehensive R package—Flexible Modeling Framework (FME) and the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) algorithm. Using a forest flux tower site as a case study, we implemented a comprehensive modeling analysis involving nine parameters and four target variables (carbon and water fluxes) with their corresponding measurements based on the eddy covariance technique. The local sensitivity analysis shows that the plant production-related parameters (e.g., PPDF1 and PRDX) are most sensitive to the model cost function. Both SCE and FME are comparable and performed well in deriving the optimal parameter set with satisfactory simulations of target variables. Global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis indicate that the parameter uncertainty and the resulting output uncertainty can be quantified, and that the magnitude of parameter-uncertainty effects depends on variables and seasons. This study also demonstrates that using the cutting-edge R functions such as FME can be feasible and attractive for conducting comprehensive parameter analysis for ecosystem modeling.

  18. Investigations of the sensitivity of a coronal mass ejection model (ENLIL) to solar input parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Falkenberg, Thea Vilstrup; Vršnak, B.; Taktakishvili, A.

    2010-01-01

    Understanding space weather is not only important for satellite operations and human exploration of the solar system but also to phenomena here on Earth that may potentially disturb and disrupt electrical signals. Some of the most violent space weather effects are caused by coronal mass ejections...... investigate the parameter space of the ENLILv2.5b model using the CME event of 25 July 2004. ENLIL is a time‐dependent 3‐D MHD model that can simulate the propagation of cone‐shaped interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) through the solar system. Excepting the cone parameters (radius, position...

  19. Modelling the flyway of arctic breeding shorebirds; parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ens, B.J.; Schekkerman, H.; Tulp, I.Y.M.; Bauer, S.; Klaassen, M.

    2006-01-01

    This report describes the derivation of parameter estimates for the model DYNAMIG for an arctic breeding shorebird, the Knot. DYNAMIG predicts the optimal spring migration of birds, like shorebirds and geese, that depend of a chain of discrete sites, to travel between their breeding grounds and

  20. Uncertainty assessment and sensitivity analysis of soil moisture based on model parameter errors - Results from four regions in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Guodong; Peng, Fei; Mu, Mu

    2017-12-01

    Model parameter errors are an important cause of uncertainty in soil moisture simulation. In this study, a conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation related to parameter (CNOP-P) approach and a sophisticated land surface model (the Common Land Model, CoLM) are employed in four regions in China to explore extent of uncertainty in soil moisture simulations due to model parameter errors. The CNOP-P approach facilitates calculation of the upper bounds of uncertainty due to parameter errors and investigation of the nonlinear effects of parameter combination on uncertainties in simulation and prediction. The range of uncertainty for simulated soil moisture was found to be from 0.04 to 0.58 m3 m-3. Based on the CNOP-P approach, a new approach is applied to explore a relatively sensitive and important parameter combination for soil moisture simulations and predictions. It is found that the relatively sensitive parameter combination is region- and season-dependent. Furthermore, the results show that simulation of soil moisture could be improved if the errors in these important parameter combinations are reduced. In four study regions, the average extent of improvement (61.6%) in simulating soil moisture using the new approach based on the CNOP-P is larger than that (53.4%) using the one-at-a-time (OAT) approach. These results indicate that simulation and prediction of soil moisture is improved by considering the nonlinear effects of important physical parameter combinations. In addition, the new approach based on the CNOP-P is found to be an effective method to discern the nonlinear effects of important physical parameter combinations on numerical simulation and prediction.

  1. Dynamic impact characteristics of KN-18 SNF transport cask - Part 2: Sensitivity analysis of modeling and design parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Kap-Sun; Kim, Jong-Soo; Choi, Kyu-Sup; Shin, Tae-Myung; Yun, Hyun-Do

    2010-01-01

    In Part 1 of this study, an advanced numerical simulation method was proposed to investigate the impact characteristics of the KN-18 spent nuclear fuel (SNF) transport cask recently developed in Korea and verified against the experimental results. In this study, sensitivity analyses are carried out using the proposed numerical simulation method to investigate the effects of the various modeling and design parameters, such as material model assumption, modeling methodology, analytical assumptions, and design variables that can affect the impact characteristics of a cask and the accuracy of the numerical results. These parametric analyses were also performed to provide a basis for correlations with test results that is closer to reality than merely conservative as a means of benchmarking the numerical models. In addition, the parametric analysis results are compared against the experimental results, and the sensitivities of each parameter are summarized to provide references for the future design and analysis of SNF transport casks.

  2. Parameter and model sensitivities for colloid-facilitated radionuclide transport on the field scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cvetkovic, V.; Painter, S.; Turner, D.; Pickett, D.; Bertetti, P.

    2004-06-01

    We investigate the potential effects of inorganic colloids on radionuclide transport in groundwater using generic sensitivity studies and an example based on the alluvial aquifer near Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Our emphasis is on kinetically controlled sorption of radionuclides on mobile and immobile colloids. Three kinetic sorption models are considered for the sensitivity analysis: bilinear, Langmuir, and linear. Plutonium is assumed to be injected into the Yucca Mountain alluvial aquifer at a constant rate and follows a random stream tube to a monitoring boundary. The linear sorption model provides a reasonable upper bound on colloid-facilitated plutonium transport for the site-specific conditions. In the absence of colloid filtration and retardation, colloids enhance the plutonium discharge by a large factor over the situation without colloids. Exchange of plutonium between solution and reversibly attached colloids makes colloid retardation relatively ineffective at reducing colloid-facilitated transport except when the retardation factor is large. Irreversible removal of colloids (filtration) is more effective than retardation at reducing colloid-facilitated transport. For fixed filtration rate the degree of attenuation depends sensitively and nonmonotonically on the rate of plutonium desorption from colloids. These results emphasize the need for accurate measurements of rates of desorption from colloids as well as in situ studies of filtration of naturally occurring colloids.

  3. Flow analysis with WaSiM-ETH – model parameter sensitivity at different scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Cullmann

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available WaSiM-ETH (Gurtz et al., 2001, a widely used water balance simulation model, is tested for its suitability to serve for flow analysis in the context of rainfall runoff modelling and flood forecasting. In this paper, special focus is on the resolution of the process domain in space as well as in time. We try to couple model runs with different calculation time steps in order to reduce the effort arising from calculating the whole flow hydrograph at the hourly time step. We aim at modelling on the daily time step for water balance purposes, switching to the hourly time step whenever high-resolution information is necessary (flood forecasting. WaSiM-ETH is used at different grid resolutions, thus we try to become clear about being able to transfer the model in spatial resolution. We further use two different approaches for the overland flow time calculation within the sub-basins of the test watershed to gain insights about the process dynamics portrayed by the model. Our findings indicate that the model is very sensitive to time and space resolution and cannot be transferred across scales without recalibration.

  4. Sensitivity analysis of the parameters of an HIV/AIDS model with condom campaign and antiretroviral therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsudi, Hidayat, Noor; Wibowo, Ratno Bagus Edy

    2017-12-01

    In this article, we present a deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of HIV/AIDS in which condom campaign and antiretroviral therapy are both important for the disease management. We calculate the effective reproduction number using the next generation matrix method and investigate the local and global stability of the disease-free equilibrium of the model. Sensitivity analysis of the effective reproduction number with respect to the model parameters were carried out. Our result shows that efficacy rate of condom campaign, transmission rate for contact with the asymptomatic infective, progression rate from the asymptomatic infective to the pre-AIDS infective, transmission rate for contact with the pre-AIDS infective, ARV therapy rate, proportion of the susceptible receiving condom campaign and proportion of the pre-AIDS receiving ARV therapy are highly sensitive parameters that effect the transmission dynamics of HIV/AIDS infection.

  5. A computational framework for testing arrhythmia marker sensitivities to model parameters in functionally calibrated populations of atrial cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vagos, Márcia R.; Arevalo, Hermenegild; de Oliveira, Bernardo Lino; Sundnes, Joakim; Maleckar, Mary M.

    2017-09-01

    Models of cardiac cell electrophysiology are complex non-linear systems which can be used to gain insight into mechanisms of cardiac dynamics in both healthy and pathological conditions. However, the complexity of cardiac models can make mechanistic insight difficult. Moreover, these are typically fitted to averaged experimental data which do not incorporate the variability in observations. Recently, building populations of models to incorporate inter- and intra-subject variability in simulations has been combined with sensitivity analysis (SA) to uncover novel ionic mechanisms and potentially clarify arrhythmogenic behaviors. We used the Koivumäki human atrial cell model to create two populations, representing normal Sinus Rhythm (nSR) and chronic Atrial Fibrillation (cAF), by varying 22 key model parameters. In each population, 14 biomarkers related to the action potential and dynamic restitution were extracted. Populations were calibrated based on distributions of biomarkers to obtain reasonable physiological behavior, and subjected to SA to quantify correlations between model parameters and pro-arrhythmia markers. The two populations showed distinct behaviors under steady state and dynamic pacing. The nSR population revealed greater variability, and more unstable dynamic restitution, as compared to the cAF population, suggesting that simulated cAF remodeling rendered cells more stable to parameter variation and rate adaptation. SA revealed that the biomarkers depended mainly on five ionic currents, with noted differences in sensitivities to these between nSR and cAF. Also, parameters could be selected to produce a model variant with no alternans and unaltered action potential morphology, highlighting that unstable dynamical behavior may be driven by specific cell parameter settings. These results ultimately suggest that arrhythmia maintenance in cAF may not be due to instability in cell membrane excitability, but rather due to tissue-level effects which

  6. Significance of uncertainties derived from settling tank model structure and parameters on predicting WWTP performance - A global sensitivity analysis study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramin, Elham; Sin, Gürkan; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2011-01-01

    Uncertainty derived from one of the process models – such as one-dimensional secondary settling tank (SST) models – can impact the output of the other process models, e.g., biokinetic (ASM1), as well as the integrated wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) models. The model structure and parameter...... uncertainty of settler models can therefore propagate, and add to the uncertainties in prediction of any plant performance criteria. Here we present an assessment of the relative significance of secondary settling model performance in WWTP simulations. We perform a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) based....... The outcome of this study contributes to a better understanding of uncertainty in WWTPs, and explicitly demonstrates the significance of secondary settling processes that are crucial elements of model prediction under dry and wet-weather loading conditions....

  7. Best hits of 11110110111: model-free selection and parameter-free sensitivity calculation of spaced seeds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noé, Laurent

    2017-01-01

    Spaced seeds , also named gapped q-grams, gapped k-mers, spaced q-grams , have been proven to be more sensitive than contiguous seeds ( contiguous q-grams, contiguous k-mers ) in nucleic and amino-acid sequences analysis. Initially proposed to detect sequence similarities and to anchor sequence alignments, spaced seeds have more recently been applied in several alignment-free related methods. Unfortunately, spaced seeds need to be initially designed. This task is known to be time-consuming due to the number of spaced seed candidates. Moreover, it can be altered by a set of arbitrary chosen parameters from the probabilistic alignment models used. In this general context, Dominant seeds have been introduced by Mak and Benson (Bioinformatics 25:302-308, 2009) on the Bernoulli model, in order to reduce the number of spaced seed candidates that are further processed in a parameter-free calculation of the sensitivity. We expand the scope of work of Mak and Benson on single and multiple seeds by considering the Hit Integration model of Chung and Park (BMC Bioinform 11:31, 2010), demonstrate that the same dominance definition can be applied, and that a parameter-free study can be performed without any significant additional cost. We also consider two new discrete models, namely the Heaviside and the Dirac models, where lossless seeds can be integrated. From a theoretical standpoint, we establish a generic framework on all the proposed models, by applying a counting semi-ring to quickly compute large polynomial coefficients needed by the dominance filter. From a practical standpoint, we confirm that dominant seeds reduce the set of, either single seeds to thoroughly analyse, or multiple seeds to store. Moreover, in http://bioinfo.cristal.univ-lille.fr/yass/iedera_dominance, we provide a full list of spaced seeds computed on the four aforementioned models, with one (continuous) parameter left free for each model, and with several (discrete) alignment lengths.

  8. Using High-Resolution Data to Test Parameter Sensitivity of the Distributed Hydrological Model HydroGeoSphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Cornelissen

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Parameterization of physically based and distributed hydrological models for mesoscale catchments remains challenging because the commonly available data base is insufficient for calibration. In this paper, we parameterize a mesoscale catchment for the distributed model HydroGeoSphere by transferring evapotranspiration parameters calibrated at a highly-equipped headwater catchment in addition to literature data. Based on this parameterization, the sensitivity of the mesoscale catchment to spatial variability in land use, potential evapotranspiration and precipitation and of the headwater catchment to mesoscale soil and land use data was conducted. Simulations of the mesoscale catchment with transferred parameters reproduced daily discharge dynamics and monthly evapotranspiration of grassland, deciduous and coniferous vegetation in a satisfactory manner. Precipitation was the most sensitive input data with respect to total runoff and peak flow rates, while simulated evapotranspiration components and patterns were most sensitive to spatially distributed land use parameterization. At the headwater catchment, coarse soil data resulted in a change in runoff generating processes based on the interplay between higher wetness prior to a rainfall event, enhanced groundwater level rise and accordingly, lower transpiration rates. Our results indicate that the direct transfer of parameters is a promising method to benefit highly equipped simulations of the headwater catchments.

  9. Self-organized kilometer-scale shoreline sand wave generation: Sensitivity to model and physical parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Idier, Déborah; Falqués, Albert; Rohmer, Jérémy; Arriaga, Jaime

    2017-09-01

    The instability mechanisms for self-organized kilometer-scale shoreline sand waves have been extensively explored by modeling. However, while the assumed bathymetric perturbation associated with the sand wave controls the feedback between morphology and waves, its effect on the instability onset has not been explored. In addition, no systematic investigation of the effect of the physical parameters has been done yet. Using a linear stability model, we investigate the effect of wave conditions, cross-shore profile, closure depth, and two perturbation shapes (P1: cross-shore bathymetric profile shift, and P2: bed level perturbation linearly decreasing offshore). For a P1 perturbation, no instability occurs below an absolute critical angle θc0≈ 40-50°. For a P2 perturbation, there is no absolute critical angle: sand waves can develop also for low-angle waves. In fact, the bathymetric perturbation shape plays a key role in low-angle wave instability: such instability only develops if the curvature of the depth contours offshore the breaking zone is larger than the shoreline one. This can occur for the P2 perturbation but not for P1. The analysis of bathymetric data suggests that both curvature configurations could exist in nature. For both perturbation types, large wave angle, small wave period, and large closure depth strongly favor instability. The cross-shore profile has almost no effect with a P1 perturbation, whereas large surf zone slope and gently sloping shoreface strongly enhance instability under low-angle waves for a P2 perturbation. Finally, predictive statistical models are set up to identify sites prone to exhibit either a critical angle close to θc0 or low-angle wave instability.

  10. A sensitivity analysis of a personalized pulse wave propagation model for arteriovenous fistula surgery. Part B: Identification of possible generic model parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huberts, W; de Jonge, C; van der Linden, W P M; Inda, M A; Passera, K; Tordoir, J H M; van de Vosse, F N; Bosboom, E M H

    2013-06-01

    Decision-making in vascular access surgery for hemodialysis can be supported by a pulse wave propagation model that is able to simulate pressure and flow changes induced by the creation of a vascular access. To personalize such a model, patient-specific input parameters should be chosen. However, the number of input parameters that can be measured in clinical routine is limited. Besides, patient data are compromised with uncertainty. Incomplete and uncertain input data will result in uncertainties in model predictions. In part A, we analyzed how the measurement uncertainty in the input propagates to the model output by means of a sensitivity analysis. Of all 73 input parameters, 16 parameters were identified to be worthwhile to measure more accurately and 51 could be fixed within their measurement uncertainty range, but these latter parameters still needed to be measured. Here, we present a methodology for assessing the model input parameters that can be taken constant and therefore do not need to be measured. In addition, a method to determine the value of this parameter is presented. For the pulse wave propagation model applied to vascular access surgery, six patient-specific datasets were analyzed and it was found that 47 out of 73 parameters can be fixed on a generic value. These model parameters are not important for personalization of the wave propagation model. Furthermore, we were able to determine a generic value for 37 of the 47 fixable model parameters. Copyright © 2012 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Groundwater travel time uncertainty analysis. Sensitivity of results to model geometry, and correlations and cross correlations among input parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clifton, P.M.

    1985-03-01

    This study examines the sensitivity of the travel time distribution predicted by a reference case model to (1) scale of representation of the model parameters, (2) size of the model domain, (3) correlation range of log-transmissivity, and (4) cross correlations between transmissivity and effective thickness. The basis for the reference model is the preliminary stochastic travel time model previously documented by the Basalt Waste Isolation Project. Results of this study show the following. The variability of the predicted travel times can be adequately represented when the ratio between the size of the zones used to represent the model parameters and the log-transmissivity correlation range is less than about one-fifth. The size of the model domain and the types of boundary conditions can have a strong impact on the distribution of travel times. Longer log-transmissivity correlation ranges cause larger variability in the predicted travel times. Positive cross correlation between transmissivity and effective thickness causes a decrease in the travel time variability. These results demonstrate the need for a sound conceptual model prior to conducting a stochastic travel time analysis

  12. A Toolkit to Study Sensitivity of the Geant4 Predictions to the Variations of the Physics Model Parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fields, Laura [Fermilab; Genser, Krzysztof [Fermilab; Hatcher, Robert [Fermilab; Kelsey, Michael [SLAC; Perdue, Gabriel [Fermilab; Wenzel, Hans [Fermilab; Wright, Dennis H. [SLAC; Yarba, Julia [Fermilab

    2017-08-21

    Geant4 is the leading detector simulation toolkit used in high energy physics to design detectors and to optimize calibration and reconstruction software. It employs a set of carefully validated physics models to simulate interactions of particles with matter across a wide range of interaction energies. These models, especially the hadronic ones, rely largely on directly measured cross-sections and phenomenological predictions with physically motivated parameters estimated by theoretical calculation or measurement. Because these models are tuned to cover a very wide range of possible simulation tasks, they may not always be optimized for a given process or a given material. This raises several critical questions, e.g. how sensitive Geant4 predictions are to the variations of the model parameters, or what uncertainties are associated with a particular tune of a Geant4 physics model, or a group of models, or how to consistently derive guidance for Geant4 model development and improvement from a wide range of available experimental data. We have designed and implemented a comprehensive, modular, user-friendly software toolkit to study and address such questions. It allows one to easily modify parameters of one or several Geant4 physics models involved in the simulation, and to perform collective analysis of multiple variants of the resulting physics observables of interest and comparison against a variety of corresponding experimental data. Based on modern event-processing infrastructure software, the toolkit offers a variety of attractive features, e.g. flexible run-time configurable workflow, comprehensive bookkeeping, easy to expand collection of analytical components. Design, implementation technology, and key functionalities of the toolkit are presented and illustrated with results obtained with Geant4 key hadronic models.

  13. Parameter sensitivity of three Kalman Filter Schemes for the assimilation of tide guage data in coastal and self sea models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Jacob Viborg Tornfeldt; Madsen, Henrik; Madsen, H.

    2006-01-01

    In applications of data assimilation algorithms, a number of poorly known assimilation parameters usually need to be specified. Hence, the documented success of data assimilation methodologies must rely on a moderate sensitivity to these parameters. This contribution presents a parameter sensitiv...

  14. Sensitivity of a carbon and productivity model to climatic, water, terrain, and biophysical parameters in a Rocky Mountain watershed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, S.; Peddle, D.R.; Coburn, C.A.; Kienzle, S.

    2008-01-01

    Net primary productivity (NPP) is a key component of the terrestrial carbon cycle and is important in ecological, watershed, and forest management studies, and more broadly in global climate change research. Determining the relative importance and magnitude of uncertainty of NPP model inputs is important for proper carbon reporting over larger areas and time periods. This paper presents a systematic evaluation of the boreal ecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS) model in mountainous terrain using an established montane forest test site in Kananaskis, Alberta, in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Model runs were based on forest (land cover, leaf area index (LAI), biomass) and climate-water inputs (solar radiation, temperature, precipitation, humidity, soil water holding capacity) derived from digital elevation model (DEM) derivatives, climate data, geographical information system (GIS) functions, and topographically corrected satellite imagery. Four sensitivity analyses were conducted as a controlled series of experiments involving (i) NPP individual parameter sensitivity for a full growing season, (ii) NPP independent variation tests (parameter μ ± 1σ), (iii) factorial analyses to assess more complex multiple-factor interactions, and (iv) topographic correction. The results, validated against field measurements, showed that modeled NPP was sensitive to most inputs measured in the study area, with LAI and forest type the most important forest input, and solar radiation the most important climate input. Soil available water holding capacity expressed as a function of wetness index was only significant in conjunction with precipitation when both parameters represented a moisture-deficit situation. NPP uncertainty resulting from topographic influence was equivalent to 140 kg C ha -1 ·year -1 . This suggested that topographic correction of model inputs is important for accurate NPP estimation. The BEPS model, designed originally for flat boreal forests, was shown to be

  15. Sensitivity of a carbon and productivity model to climatic, water, terrain, and biophysical parameters in a Rocky Mountain watershed

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, S.; Peddle, D.R.; Coburn, C.A.; Kienzle, S. [Univ. of Lethbridge, Dept. of Geography, Lethbridge, Alberta (Canada)

    2008-06-15

    Net primary productivity (NPP) is a key component of the terrestrial carbon cycle and is important in ecological, watershed, and forest management studies, and more broadly in global climate change research. Determining the relative importance and magnitude of uncertainty of NPP model inputs is important for proper carbon reporting over larger areas and time periods. This paper presents a systematic evaluation of the boreal ecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS) model in mountainous terrain using an established montane forest test site in Kananaskis, Alberta, in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Model runs were based on forest (land cover, leaf area index (LAI), biomass) and climate-water inputs (solar radiation, temperature, precipitation, humidity, soil water holding capacity) derived from digital elevation model (DEM) derivatives, climate data, geographical information system (GIS) functions, and topographically corrected satellite imagery. Four sensitivity analyses were conducted as a controlled series of experiments involving (i) NPP individual parameter sensitivity for a full growing season, (ii) NPP independent variation tests (parameter {mu} {+-} 1{sigma}), (iii) factorial analyses to assess more complex multiple-factor interactions, and (iv) topographic correction. The results, validated against field measurements, showed that modeled NPP was sensitive to most inputs measured in the study area, with LAI and forest type the most important forest input, and solar radiation the most important climate input. Soil available water holding capacity expressed as a function of wetness index was only significant in conjunction with precipitation when both parameters represented a moisture-deficit situation. NPP uncertainty resulting from topographic influence was equivalent to 140 kg C ha{sup -1}{center_dot}year{sup -1}. This suggested that topographic correction of model inputs is important for accurate NPP estimation. The BEPS model, designed originally for flat

  16. Sensitivity of numerical simulation models of debris flow to the rheological parameters and application in the engineering environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosso, M.; Sesenna, R.; Magni, L.; Demurtas, L.; Uras, G.

    2009-04-01

    bidimensional and monodimensional commercial models for the simulation of debris flow, in particular because of the reconstruction of famous and expected events in the river basin of the Comboè torrent (Aosta Valley, Italy), it has been possible to reach careful consideration about the calibration of the rheological parameters and the sensitivity of simulation models, specifically about the variability of them. The geomechanical and volumetric characteristics of the sediment at the bottom of the debris could produce uncertainties in model implementation, above all in not exclusively cinematic models, mostly influenced by the rheological parameters. The parameter that mainly influences the final result of the applied numerical models is the volumetric solid concentration that is variable in space and time during the debris flow propagation. In fact rheological parameters are described by a power equation of volumetric concentration. The potentiality and the suitability of a numerical code in the engineering environmental application have to be consider not referring only to the quality and amount of results, but also to the sensibility regarding the parameters variability that are bases of the inner ruotines of the program. Therefore, a suitable model will have to be sensitive to the variability of parameters that the customer can calculate with greater precision. On the other side, it will have to be sufficiently stable to the variation of those parameters that the customer cannot define univocally, but only by range of variation. One of the models utilized for the simulation of debris flow on the Comboè Torrent has been demonstrated as an heavy influenced example by small variation of rheological parameters. Consequently, in spite of the possibility to lead accurate procedures of back-analysis about a recent intense event, it has been found a difficulty in the calibration of the concentration for new expected events. That involved an extreme variability of the final results

  17. Flexural modeling of the elastic lithosphere at an ocean trench: A parameter sensitivity analysis using analytical solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Contreras-Reyes, Eduardo; Garay, Jeremías

    2018-01-01

    The outer rise is a topographic bulge seaward of the trench at a subduction zone that is caused by bending and flexure of the oceanic lithosphere as subduction commences. The classic model of the flexure of oceanic lithosphere w (x) is a hydrostatic restoring force acting upon an elastic plate at the trench axis. The governing parameters are elastic thickness Te, shear force V0, and bending moment M0. V0 and M0 are unknown variables that are typically replaced by other quantities such as the height of the fore-bulge, wb, and the half-width of the fore-bulge, (xb - xo). However, this method is difficult to implement with the presence of excessive topographic noise around the bulge of the outer rise. Here, we present an alternative method to the classic model, in which lithospheric flexure w (x) is a function of the flexure at the trench axis w0, the initial dip angle of subduction β0, and the elastic thickness Te. In this investigation, we apply a sensitivity analysis to both methods in order to determine the impact of the differing parameters on the solution, w (x). The parametric sensitivity analysis suggests that stable solutions for the alternative approach requires relatively low β0 values (rise bulge. The alternative method is a more suitable approach, assuming that accurate geometric information at the trench axis (i.e., w0 and β0) is available.

  18. Utilizing High-Performance Computing to Investigate Parameter Sensitivity of an Inversion Model for Vadose Zone Flow and Transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Z.; Ward, A. L.; Fang, Y.; Yabusaki, S.

    2011-12-01

    High-resolution geologic models have proven effective in improving the accuracy of subsurface flow and transport predictions. However, many of the parameters in subsurface flow and transport models cannot be determined directly at the scale of interest and must be estimated through inverse modeling. A major challenge, particularly in vadose zone flow and transport, is the inversion of the highly-nonlinear, high-dimensional problem as current methods are not readily scalable for large-scale, multi-process models. In this paper we describe the implementation of a fully automated approach for addressing complex parameter optimization and sensitivity issues on massively parallel multi- and many-core systems. The approach is based on the integration of PNNL's extreme scale Subsurface Transport Over Multiple Phases (eSTOMP) simulator, which uses the Global Array toolkit, with the Beowulf-Cluster inspired parallel nonlinear parameter estimation software, BeoPEST in the MPI mode. In the eSTOMP/BeoPEST implementation, a pre-processor generates all of the PEST input files based on the eSTOMP input file. Simulation results for comparison with observations are extracted automatically at each time step eliminating the need for post-process data extractions. The inversion framework was tested with three different experimental data sets: one-dimensional water flow at Hanford Grass Site; irrigation and infiltration experiment at the Andelfingen Site; and a three-dimensional injection experiment at Hanford's Sisson and Lu Site. Good agreements are achieved in all three applications between observations and simulations in both parameter estimates and water dynamics reproduction. Results show that eSTOMP/BeoPEST approach is highly scalable and can be run efficiently with hundreds or thousands of processors. BeoPEST is fault tolerant and new nodes can be dynamically added and removed. A major advantage of this approach is the ability to use high-resolution geologic models to preserve

  19. Key Parameters for Urban Heat Island Assessment in A Mediterranean Context: A Sensitivity Analysis Using the Urban Weather Generator Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvati, Agnese; Palme, Massimo; Inostroza, Luis

    2017-10-01

    Although Urban Heat Island (UHI) is a fundamental effect modifying the urban climate, being widely studied, the relative weight of the parameters involved in its generation is still not clear. This paper investigates the hierarchy of importance of eight parameters responsible for UHI intensity in the Mediterranean context. Sensitivity analyses have been carried out using the Urban Weather Generator model, considering the range of variability of: 1) city radius, 2) urban morphology, 3) tree coverage, 4) anthropogenic heat from vehicles, 5) building’s cooling set point, 6) heat released to canyon from HVAC systems, 7) wall construction properties and 8) albedo of vertical and horizontal surfaces. Results show a clear hierarchy of significance among the considered parameters; the urban morphology is the most important variable, causing a relative change up to 120% of the annual average UHI intensity in the Mediterranean context. The impact of anthropogenic sources of heat such as cooling systems and vehicles is also significant. These results suggest that urban morphology parameters can be used as descriptors of the climatic performance of different urban areas, easing the work of urban planners and designers in understanding a complex physical phenomenon, such as the UHI.

  20. Parameter Identification with the Random Perturbation Particle Swarm Optimization Method and Sensitivity Analysis of an Advanced Pressurized Water Reactor Nuclear Power Plant Model for Power Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Wang

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The ability to obtain appropriate parameters for an advanced pressurized water reactor (PWR unit model is of great significance for power system analysis. The attributes of that ability include the following: nonlinear relationships, long transition time, intercoupled parameters and difficult obtainment from practical test, posed complexity and difficult parameter identification. In this paper, a model and a parameter identification method for the PWR primary loop system were investigated. A parameter identification process was proposed, using a particle swarm optimization (PSO algorithm that is based on random perturbation (RP-PSO. The identification process included model variable initialization based on the differential equations of each sub-module and program setting method, parameter obtainment through sub-module identification in the Matlab/Simulink Software (Math Works Inc., Natick, MA, USA as well as adaptation analysis for an integrated model. A lot of parameter identification work was carried out, the results of which verified the effectiveness of the method. It was found that the change of some parameters, like the fuel temperature and coolant temperature feedback coefficients, changed the model gain, of which the trajectory sensitivities were not zero. Thus, obtaining their appropriate values had significant effects on the simulation results. The trajectory sensitivities of some parameters in the core neutron dynamic module were interrelated, causing the parameters to be difficult to identify. The model parameter sensitivity could be different, which would be influenced by the model input conditions, reflecting the parameter identifiability difficulty degree for various input conditions.

  1. A sensitivity analysis of a personalized pulse wave propagation model for arteriovenous fistula surgery. Part A: Identification of most influential model parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huberts, W; de Jonge, C; van der Linden, W P M; Inda, M A; Tordoir, J H M; van de Vosse, F N; Bosboom, E M H

    2013-06-01

    Previously, a pulse wave propagation model was developed that has potential in supporting decision-making in arteriovenous fistula (AVF) surgery for hemodialysis. To adapt the wave propagation model to personalized conditions, patient-specific input parameters should be available. In clinics, the number of measurable input parameters is limited which results in sparse datasets. In addition, patient data are compromised with uncertainty. These uncertain and incomplete input datasets will result in model output uncertainties. By means of a sensitivity analysis the propagation of input uncertainties into output uncertainty can be studied which can give directions for input measurement improvement. In this study, a computational framework has been developed to perform such a sensitivity analysis with a variance-based method and Monte Carlo simulations. The framework was used to determine the influential parameters of our pulse wave propagation model applied to AVF surgery, with respect to parameter prioritization and parameter fixing. With this we were able to determine the model parameters that have the largest influence on the predicted mean brachial flow and systolic radial artery pressure after AVF surgery. Of all 73 parameters 51 could be fixed within their measurement uncertainty interval without significantly influencing the output, while 16 parameters importantly influence the output uncertainty. Measurement accuracy improvement should thus focus on these 16 influential parameters. The most rewarding are measurement improvements of the following parameters: the mean aortic flow, the aortic windkessel resistance, the parameters associated with the smallest arterial or venous diameters of the AVF in- and outflow tract and the radial artery windkessel compliance. Copyright © 2012 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Groundwater travel time uncertainty analysis: Sensitivity of results to model geometry, and correlations and cross correlations among input parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clifton, P.M.

    1984-12-01

    The deep basalt formations beneath the Hanford Site are being investigated for the Department of Energy (DOE) to assess their suitability as a host medium for a high level nuclear waste repository. Predicted performance of the proposed repository is an important part of the investigation. One of the performance measures being used to gauge the suitability of the host medium is pre-waste-emplacement groundwater travel times to the accessible environment. Many deterministic analyses of groundwater travel times have been completed by Rockwell and other independent organizations. Recently, Rockwell has completed a preliminary stochastic analysis of groundwater travel times. This document presents analyses that show the sensitivity of the results from the previous stochastic travel time study to: (1) scale of representation of model parameters, (2) size of the model domain, (3) correlation range of log-transmissivity, and (4) cross-correlation between transmissivity and effective thickness. 40 refs., 29 figs., 6 tabs

  3. On Non-Linear Sensitivity of Marine Biological Models to Parameter Variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-01-01

    M.B., 2002. Understanding uncertain enviromental systems. In: Grasman, J., van Straten, G. (Eds.), Predictability and Nonlinear Modelling in Natural...Lekien, F., 2006. Quantifying uncertainities in ocean predictions. In: Paluszkiewicz, T., Harper, S. (Eds.), Oceanography, special issue on Advances in

  4. Parameter sensitivity study of a Field II multilayer transducer model on a convex transducer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bæk, David; Jensen, Jørgen Arendt; Willatzen, Morten

    2009-01-01

    ultrasound imaging transducer (Bæk et al. ICU 2009). The model benefits from its 1D simplicity and hasshown to give an amplitude error around 1.7‐2 dB. However, any prediction of amplitude, phase, and attenuation of pulses relies on the accuracy of manufacturer supplied material characteristics, which may...

  5. Investigation of Prediction Accuracy, Sensitivity, and Parameter Stability of Large-Scale Propagation Path Loss Models for 5G Wireless Communications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sun, Shu; Rappaport, Theodore S.; Thomas, Timothy

    2016-01-01

    This paper compares three candidate large-scale propagation path loss models for use over the entire microwave and millimeter-wave (mmWave) radio spectrum: the alpha–beta–gamma (ABG) model, the close-in (CI) free-space reference distance model, and the CI model with a frequency-weighted path loss...... the accuracy and sensitivity of these models using measured data from 30 propagation measurement data sets from 2 to 73 GHz over distances ranging from 4 to 1238 m. A series of sensitivity analyses of the three models shows that the physically based two-parameter CI model and three-parameter CIF model offer...

  6. Sensitivity analysis of the waste composition and water content parameters on the biogas production models on solid waste landfills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigo-Ilarri, Javier; Segura-Sobrino, Francisco; Rodrigo-Clavero, Maria-Elena

    2014-05-01

    Landfills are commonly used as the final deposit of urban solid waste. Despite the waste is previously processed on a treatment plant, the final amount of organic matter which reaches the landfill is large however. The biodegradation of this organic matter forms a mixture of greenhouse gases (essentially Methane and Carbon-Dioxide as well as Ammonia and Hydrogen Sulfide). From the environmental point of view, solid waste landfills are therefore considered to be one of the main greenhouse gas sources. Different mathematical models are usually applied to predict the amount of biogas produced on real landfills. The waste chemical composition and the availability of water in the solid waste appear to be the main parameters of these models. Results obtained when performing a sensitivity analysis over the biogas production model parameters under real conditions are shown. The importance of a proper characterizacion of the waste as well as the necessity of improving the understanding of the behaviour and development of the water on the unsaturated mass of waste are emphasized.

  7. Probabilistic Design of Wind Turbine Structures: Design Studies and Sensitivities to Model Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    NJOMO WANDJI, Wilfried

    Several societies have envisaged renewables as sources of energy for ecological and geo-strategical considerations. Amongst others, wind energy has gained considerable interest in the past decades due to its high potential to fulfil the aspirations of the societies that opted for it. However......, harnessing offshore wind energy poses challenges such as cost of energy reduction, handling of very large structures, randomness pertaining to the metocean environment, and need for better understanding of the mechanical behavior of the structures. Three means are employed in this thesis for cost reduction...... of braces based on the application of magneto-rheological dampers. Modelling methods and effectiveness are presented together with installation steps. The third employs an aero-elastically tailored rotor to alleviate fatigue loads on the support structure. Whereas the rotor optimization process was not done...

  8. [Simulation of carbon cycle in Qianyanzhou artificial masson pine forest ecosystem and sensitivity analysis of model parameters].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yuan; Zhang, Na; Yu, Gui-rui

    2010-07-01

    By using modified carbon-water cycle model EPPML (ecosystem productivity process model for landscape), the carbon absorption and respiration in Qianyanzhou artificial masson pine forest ecosystem in 2003 and 2004 were simulated, and the sensitivity of the model parameters was analyzed. The results showed that EPPML could effectively simulate the carbon cycle process of this ecosystem. The simulated annual values and the seasonal variations of gross primary productivity (GPP), net ecosystem productivity (NEP), and ecosystem respiration (Re) not only fitted well with the measured data, but also reflected the major impacts of extreme weather on carbon flows. The artificial masson pine forest ecosystem in Qianyanzhou was a strong carbon sink in both 2003 and 2004. Due to the coupling of high temperature and severe drought in the growth season in 2003, the carbon absorption in 2003 was lower than that in 2004. The annual NEP in 2003 and 2004 was 481.8 and 516.6 g C x m(-2) x a(-1), respectively. The key climatic factors giving important impacts on the seasonal variations of carbon cycle were solar radiation during early growth season, drought during peak growth season, and precipitation during post-peak growth season. Autotrophic respiration (Ra) and net primary productivity (NPP) had the similar seasonal variations. Soil heterotrophic respiration (Rh) was mainly affected by soil temperature at yearly scale, and by soil water content at monthly scale. During wet growth season, the higher the soil water content, the lower the Rh was; during dry growth season, the higher the precipitation during the earlier two months, the higher the Rh was. The maximum RuBP carboxylation rate at 25 degrees C (Vm25), specific leaf area (SLA), maximum leaf nitrogen content (LNm), average leaf nitrogen content (LN), and conversion coefficient of biomass to carbon (C/B) had the greatest influence on annual NEP. Different carbon cycle process could have different responses to sensitive

  9. THE INFLUENCE OF CONVERSION MODEL CHOICE FOR EROSION RATE ESTIMATION AND THE SENSITIVITY OF THE RESULTS TO CHANGES IN THE MODEL PARAMETER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nita Suhartini

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available A study of soil erosion rates had been done on a slightly and long slope of cultivated area in Ciawi - Bogor, using 137Cs technique. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the applicability of the 137Cs technique in obtaining spatially distributed information of soil redistribution at small catchment. This paper reports the result of the choice of conversion model for erosion rate estimates and the sensitive of the changes in the model parameter. For this purpose, small site was selected, namely landuse I (LU-I. The top of a slope was chosen as a reference site. The erosion/deposit rate of individual sampling points was estimated using the conversion models, namely Proportional Model (PM, Mass Balance Model 1 (MBM1 and Mass Balance Model 2 (MBM2. A comparison of the conversion models showed that the lowest value is obtained by the PM. The MBM1 gave values closer to MBM2, but MBM2 gave a reliable values. In this study, a sensitivity analysis suggest that the conversion models are sensitive to changes in parameters that depend on the site conditions, but insensitive to changes in  parameters that interact to the onset of 137Cs fallout input.   Keywords: soil erosion, environmental radioisotope, cesium

  10. Integrated water system simulation by considering hydrological and biogeochemical processes: model development, with parameter sensitivity and autocalibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y. Y.; Shao, Q. X.; Ye, A. Z.; Xing, H. T.; Xia, J.

    2016-02-01

    Integrated water system modeling is a feasible approach to understanding severe water crises in the world and promoting the implementation of integrated river basin management. In this study, a classic hydrological model (the time variant gain model: TVGM) was extended to an integrated water system model by coupling multiple water-related processes in hydrology, biogeochemistry, water quality, and ecology, and considering the interference of human activities. A parameter analysis tool, which included sensitivity analysis, autocalibration and model performance evaluation, was developed to improve modeling efficiency. To demonstrate the model performances, the Shaying River catchment, which is the largest highly regulated and heavily polluted tributary of the Huai River basin in China, was selected as the case study area. The model performances were evaluated on the key water-related components including runoff, water quality, diffuse pollution load (or nonpoint sources) and crop yield. Results showed that our proposed model simulated most components reasonably well. The simulated daily runoff at most regulated and less-regulated stations matched well with the observations. The average correlation coefficient and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency were 0.85 and 0.70, respectively. Both the simulated low and high flows at most stations were improved when the dam regulation was considered. The daily ammonium-nitrogen (NH4-N) concentration was also well captured with the average correlation coefficient of 0.67. Furthermore, the diffuse source load of NH4-N and the corn yield were reasonably simulated at the administrative region scale. This integrated water system model is expected to improve the simulation performances with extension to more model functionalities, and to provide a scientific basis for the implementation in integrated river basin managements.

  11. Impacts of reduced pH from ocean CO{sub 2} disposal: Sensitivity of zooplankton mortality to model parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adams, E.E.; Caulfield, J.A.; Herzog, H.J.; Auerbach, D.I. [Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1998-07-01

    The authors have developed a methodology to quantify mortality suffered by marine zooplankton passing through a CO{sub 2}-enriched sea water plume. Here the authors explore model sensitivity to some of the more important biological, physical and engineering design parameters, with particular reference to CO{sub 2} injection as a buoyant droplet plume. Uncertainty in the dose-response relationship, e.g. caused by the use of data for surface organisms, will affect predicted values of total mortality by less than a factor of two for a single point discharge from 10 standard (500 MWe) coal-fired values of total mortality by less than a factor of two for a single point discharge from 10 standard 500 MWe coal-fired electric power plants and a factor of five for a single point discharge from one standard plant. The most important design variable is the number of physically separated discharge points (diffuser ports or groups of ports) used to disperse the CO{sub 2}. Predicted mortality drops to zero as the number of discharge points per standard plants exceeds two. Finally the most important physical parameters are ambient current speed and turbulent diffusivity. As with the dose-response data, most physical oceanographic measurements have been conducted near the ocean surface. Model sensitivity suggests that a factor of 2.5 reduction in current speed or a factor of 3 reduction in ambient diffusivity, relative to the base case, would require that the number of discharge points per standard plant increase from 2 to 12 in order to avoid mortality. Thus, impacts can be strongly site-specific, and additional oceanographic measurements are needed at depths appropriate for CO{sub 2} sequestration. Nonetheless, it should be easy to design an environmentally conservative multi-point discharge system that can disperse CO{sub 2} as a droplet plume without significant mortality, even under adverse environmental conditions.

  12. Lumped-parameter models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, M.

    2006-12-15

    A lumped-parameter model represents the frequency dependent soil-structure interaction of a massless foundation placed on or embedded into an unbounded soil domain. In this technical report the steps of establishing a lumped-parameter model are presented. Following sections are included in this report: Static and dynamic formulation, Simple lumped-parameter models and Advanced lumped-parameter models. (au)

  13. The effect of background hydrometeorological conditions on the sensitivity of evapotranspiration to model parameters: analysis with measurements from an Italian alpine catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Montaldo

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent developments have made land-surface models (LSMs more complex through the inclusion of more processes and controlling variables, increasing numbers of parameters and uncertainty in their estimates. To overcome these uncertainties, prior to applying a distributed LSM over the whole Toce basin (Italian Alps, a field campaign was carried out at an experimental plot within the basin before exploring the skill and parameter importance (sensitivity using the TOPLATS model, an existing LSM. In the summer and autumn of 1999, which included both wet (atmosphere controlled and dry (soil controlled periods, actual evapotranspiration estimates were performed using Bowen ratio and, for a short period, eddy correlation methods. Measurements performed with the two methods are in good agreement. The calibrated LSM predicts actual evapotranspiration quite well over the whole observation period. A sensitivity analysis of the evapotranspiration to model parameters was performed through the global multivariate technique during both wet and dry periods of the campaign. This approach studies the influence of each parameter without conditioning on certain values of the other variables. Hence, all parameters are varied simultaneously using, for instance, a uniform sampling strategy through a Monte Carlo simulation framework. The evapotranspiration is highly sensitive to the soil parameters, especially during wet periods. However, the evapotranspiration is also sensitive to some vegetation parameters and, during dry periods, wilting point is the most critical for evapotranspiration predictions. This result confirms the importance of correct representation of vegetation properties which, in water-limited conditions, control evapotranspiration. Keywords: evapotranspiration, sensitivity analysis, land surface model, eddy correlation, Alpine basin

  14. Sensitivity of Turbine-Height Wind Speeds to Parameters in Planetary Boundary-Layer and Surface-Layer Schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Ben; Qian, Yun; Berg, Larry K.; Ma, Po-Lun; Wharton, Sonia; Bulaevskaya, Vera; Yan, Huiping; Hou, Zhangshuan; Shaw, William J.

    2016-07-21

    We evaluate the sensitivity of simulated turbine-height winds to 26 parameters applied in a planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme and a surface layer scheme of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over an area of complex terrain during the Columbia Basin Wind Energy Study. An efficient sampling algorithm and a generalized linear model are used to explore the multiple-dimensional parameter space and quantify the parametric sensitivity of modeled turbine-height winds. The results indicate that most of the variability in the ensemble simulations is contributed by parameters related to the dissipation of the turbulence kinetic energy (TKE), Prandtl number, turbulence length scales, surface roughness, and the von Kármán constant. The relative contributions of individual parameters are found to be dependent on both the terrain slope and atmospheric stability. The parameter associated with the TKE dissipation rate is found to be the most important one, and a larger dissipation rate can produce larger hub-height winds. A larger Prandtl number results in weaker nighttime winds. Increasing surface roughness reduces the frequencies of both extremely weak and strong winds, implying a reduction in the variability of the wind speed. All of the above parameters can significantly affect the vertical profiles of wind speed, the altitude of the low-level jet and the magnitude of the wind shear strength. The wind direction is found to be modulated by the same subset of influential parameters. Remainder of abstract is in attachment.

  15. Parameter Estimation, Sensitivity Analysis and Optimal Control of a Periodic Epidemic Model with Application to HRSV in Florida

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvierio Rosa

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available A state wide Human Respiratory Syncytial Virus (HRSV surveillance system was implemented in Florida in 1999 to support clinical decision-making for prophylaxis of premature infants. The research presented in this paper addresses the problem of fitting real data collected by the Florida HRSV surveillance system by using a periodic SEIRS mathematical model. A sensitivity and cost-effectiveness analysis of the model is done and an optimal control problem is formulated and solved with treatment as the control variable.

  16. Multi-level emulation of a volcanic ash transport and dispersion model to quantify sensitivity to uncertain parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Natalie J.; Huntley, Nathan; Dacre, Helen F.; Goldstein, Michael; Thomson, David; Webster, Helen

    2018-01-01

    Following the disruption to European airspace caused by the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in 2010 there has been a move towards producing quantitative predictions of volcanic ash concentration using volcanic ash transport and dispersion simulators. However, there is no formal framework for determining the uncertainties of these predictions and performing many simulations using these complex models is computationally expensive. In this paper a Bayesian linear emulation approach is applied to the Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment (NAME) to better understand the influence of source and internal model parameters on the simulator output. Emulation is a statistical method for predicting the output of a computer simulator at new parameter choices without actually running the simulator. A multi-level emulation approach is applied using two configurations of NAME with different numbers of model particles. Information from many evaluations of the computationally faster configuration is combined with results from relatively few evaluations of the slower, more accurate, configuration. This approach is effective when it is not possible to run the accurate simulator many times and when there is also little prior knowledge about the influence of parameters. The approach is applied to the mean ash column loading in 75 geographical regions on 14 May 2010. Through this analysis it has been found that the parameters that contribute the most to the output uncertainty are initial plume rise height, mass eruption rate, free tropospheric turbulence levels and precipitation threshold for wet deposition. This information can be used to inform future model development and observational campaigns and routine monitoring. The analysis presented here suggests the need for further observational and theoretical research into parameterisation of atmospheric turbulence. Furthermore it can also be used to inform the most important parameter perturbations for a small operational

  17. Multi-level emulation of a volcanic ash transport and dispersion model to quantify sensitivity to uncertain parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. J. Harvey

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Following the disruption to European airspace caused by the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in 2010 there has been a move towards producing quantitative predictions of volcanic ash concentration using volcanic ash transport and dispersion simulators. However, there is no formal framework for determining the uncertainties of these predictions and performing many simulations using these complex models is computationally expensive. In this paper a Bayesian linear emulation approach is applied to the Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment (NAME to better understand the influence of source and internal model parameters on the simulator output. Emulation is a statistical method for predicting the output of a computer simulator at new parameter choices without actually running the simulator. A multi-level emulation approach is applied using two configurations of NAME with different numbers of model particles. Information from many evaluations of the computationally faster configuration is combined with results from relatively few evaluations of the slower, more accurate, configuration. This approach is effective when it is not possible to run the accurate simulator many times and when there is also little prior knowledge about the influence of parameters. The approach is applied to the mean ash column loading in 75 geographical regions on 14 May 2010. Through this analysis it has been found that the parameters that contribute the most to the output uncertainty are initial plume rise height, mass eruption rate, free tropospheric turbulence levels and precipitation threshold for wet deposition. This information can be used to inform future model development and observational campaigns and routine monitoring. The analysis presented here suggests the need for further observational and theoretical research into parameterisation of atmospheric turbulence. Furthermore it can also be used to inform the most important parameter perturbations

  18. Modeling radiative transfer in tropical rainforest canopies: sensitivity of simulated albedo to canopy architectural and optical parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sílvia N. M. Yanagi

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the sensitivity of the surface albedo simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS to a set of Amazonian tropical rainforest canopy architectural and optical parameters. The parameters tested in this study are the orientation and reflectance of the leaves of upper and lower canopies in the visible (VIS and near-infrared (NIR spectral bands. The results are evaluated against albedo measurements taken above the K34 site at the INPA (Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia Cuieiras Biological Reserve. The sensitivity analysis indicates a strong response to the upper canopy leaves orientation (x up and to the reflectivity in the near-infrared spectral band (rNIR,up, a smaller sensitivity to the reflectivity in the visible spectral band (rVIS,up and no sensitivity at all to the lower canopy parameters, which is consistent with the canopy structure. The combination of parameters that minimized the Root Mean Square Error and mean relative error are Xup = 0.86, rVIS,up = 0.062 and rNIR,up = 0.275. The parameterizations performed resulted in successful simulations of tropical rainforest albedo by IBIS, indicating its potential to simulate the canopy radiative transfer for narrow spectral bands and permitting close comparison with remote sensing products.Este estudo avalia a sensibilidade do albedo da superfície pelo Simulador Integrado da Biosfera (IBIS a um conjunto de parâmetros que representam algumas propriedades arquitetônicas e óticas do dossel da floresta tropical Amazônica. Os parâmetros testados neste estudo são a orientação e refletância das folhas do dossel superior e inferior nas bandas espectrais do visível (VIS e infravermelho próximo (NIR. Os resultados são avaliados contra observações feitas no sítio K34 pertencente ao Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA na Reserva Biológica de Cuieiras. A análise de sensibilidade indica uma forte resposta aos parâmetros de orienta

  19. Parameters identification in strain-rate and thermal sensitive visco-plastic material model for an alumina dispersion strengthened copper

    CERN Document Server

    Scapin, M; Peroni, M

    2011-01-01

    The main objective of this paper is getting strain-hardening, thermal and strain-rate parameters for a material model in order to correctly reproduce the deformation process that occurs in high strain-rate scenario, in which the material reaches also high levels of plastic deformation and temperature. In particular, in this work the numerical inverse method is applied to extract material strength parameters from experimental data obtained via mechanical tests at different strain-rates (from quasi-static loading to high strain-rate) and temperatures (between 20 C and 1000 C) for an alumina dispersion strengthened copper material, which commercial name is GLIDCOP. Thanks to its properties GLIDCOP finds several applications in particle accelerator technologies, where problems of thermal management, combined with structural requirements, play a key role. Currently, it is used for the construction of structural and functional parts of the particle beam collimation system. Since the extreme condition in which the m...

  20. Inverse modeling for seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers: Insights about parameter sensitivities, variances, correlations and estimation procedures derived from the Henry problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanz, E.; Voss, C.I.

    2006-01-01

    Inverse modeling studies employing data collected from the classic Henry seawater intrusion problem give insight into several important aspects of inverse modeling of seawater intrusion problems and effective measurement strategies for estimation of parameters for seawater intrusion. Despite the simplicity of the Henry problem, it embodies the behavior of a typical seawater intrusion situation in a single aquifer. Data collected from the numerical problem solution are employed without added noise in order to focus on the aspects of inverse modeling strategies dictated by the physics of variable-density flow and solute transport during seawater intrusion. Covariances of model parameters that can be estimated are strongly dependent on the physics. The insights gained from this type of analysis may be directly applied to field problems in the presence of data errors, using standard inverse modeling approaches to deal with uncertainty in data. Covariance analysis of the Henry problem indicates that in order to generally reduce variance of parameter estimates, the ideal places to measure pressure are as far away from the coast as possible, at any depth, and the ideal places to measure concentration are near the bottom of the aquifer between the center of the transition zone and its inland fringe. These observations are located in and near high-sensitivity regions of system parameters, which may be identified in a sensitivity analysis with respect to several parameters. However, both the form of error distribution in the observations and the observation weights impact the spatial sensitivity distributions, and different choices for error distributions or weights can result in significantly different regions of high sensitivity. Thus, in order to design effective sampling networks, the error form and weights must be carefully considered. For the Henry problem, permeability and freshwater inflow can be estimated with low estimation variance from only pressure or only

  1. A sensitivity analysis approach to optical parameters of scintillation detectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghal-Eh, N.; Koohi-Fayegh, R.

    2008-01-01

    In this study, an extended version of the Monte Carlo light transport code, PHOTRACK, has been used for a sensitivity analysis to estimate the importance of different wavelength-dependent parameters in the modelling of light collection process in scintillators

  2. Sensitivity of Turbine-Height Wind Speeds to Parameters in Planetary Boundary-Layer and Surface-Layer Schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ben; Qian, Yun; Berg, Larry K.; Ma, Po-Lun; Wharton, Sonia; Bulaevskaya, Vera; Yan, Huiping; Hou, Zhangshuan; Shaw, William J.

    2017-01-01

    We evaluate the sensitivity of simulated turbine-height wind speeds to 26 parameters within the Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) planetary boundary-layer scheme and MM5 surface-layer scheme of the Weather Research and Forecasting model over an area of complex terrain. An efficient sampling algorithm and generalized linear model are used to explore the multiple-dimensional parameter space and quantify the parametric sensitivity of simulated turbine-height wind speeds. The results indicate that most of the variability in the ensemble simulations is due to parameters related to the dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), Prandtl number, turbulent length scales, surface roughness, and the von Kármán constant. The parameter associated with the TKE dissipation rate is found to be most important, and a larger dissipation rate produces larger hub-height wind speeds. A larger Prandtl number results in smaller nighttime wind speeds. Increasing surface roughness reduces the frequencies of both extremely weak and strong airflows, implying a reduction in the variability of wind speed. All of the above parameters significantly affect the vertical profiles of wind speed and the magnitude of wind shear. The relative contributions of individual parameters are found to be dependent on both the terrain slope and atmospheric stability.

  3. Parameter screening: the use of a dummy parameter to identify non-influential parameters in a global sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khorashadi Zadeh, Farkhondeh; Nossent, Jiri; van Griensven, Ann; Bauwens, Willy

    2017-04-01

    Parameter estimation is a major concern in hydrological modeling, which may limit the use of complex simulators with a large number of parameters. To support the selection of parameters to include in or exclude from the calibration process, Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) is widely applied in modeling practices. Based on the results of GSA, the influential and the non-influential parameters are identified (i.e. parameters screening). Nevertheless, the choice of the screening threshold below which parameters are considered non-influential is a critical issue, which has recently received more attention in GSA literature. In theory, the sensitivity index of a non-influential parameter has a value of zero. However, since numerical approximations, rather than analytical solutions, are utilized in GSA methods to calculate the sensitivity indices, small but non-zero indices may be obtained for the indices of non-influential parameters. In order to assess the threshold that identifies non-influential parameters in GSA methods, we propose to calculate the sensitivity index of a "dummy parameter". This dummy parameter has no influence on the model output, but will have a non-zero sensitivity index, representing the error due to the numerical approximation. Hence, the parameters whose indices are above the sensitivity index of the dummy parameter can be classified as influential, whereas the parameters whose indices are below this index are within the range of the numerical error and should be considered as non-influential. To demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed "dummy parameter approach", 26 parameters of a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model are selected to be analyzed and screened, using the variance-based Sobol' and moment-independent PAWN methods. The sensitivity index of the dummy parameter is calculated from sampled data, without changing the model equations. Moreover, the calculation does not even require additional model evaluations for the Sobol

  4. Physically-based slope stability modelling and parameter sensitivity: a case study in the Quitite and Papagaio catchments, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Lima Neves Seefelder, Carolina; Mergili, Martin

    2016-04-01

    We use the software tools r.slope.stability and TRIGRS to produce factor of safety and slope failure susceptibility maps for the Quitite and Papagaio catchments, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The key objective of the work consists in exploring the sensitivity of the geotechnical (r.slope.stability) and geohydraulic (TRIGRS) parameterization on the model outcomes in order to define suitable parameterization strategies for future slope stability modelling. The two landslide-prone catchments Quitite and Papagaio together cover an area of 4.4 km², extending between 12 and 995 m a.s.l. The study area is dominated by granitic bedrock and soil depths of 1-3 m. Ranges of geotechnical and geohydraulic parameters are derived from literature values. A landslide inventory related to a rainfall event in 1996 (250 mm in 48 hours) is used for model evaluation. We attempt to identify those combinations of effective cohesion and effective internal friction angle yielding the best correspondence with the observed landslide release areas in terms of the area under the ROC Curve (AUCROC), and in terms of the fraction of the area affected by the release of landslides. Thereby we test multiple parameter combinations within defined ranges to derive the slope failure susceptibility (fraction of tested parameter combinations yielding a factor of safety smaller than 1). We use the tool r.slope.stability (comparing the infinite slope stability model and an ellipsoid-based sliding surface model) to test and to optimize the geotechnical parameters, and TRIGRS (a coupled hydraulic-infinite slope stability model) to explore the sensitivity of the model results to the geohydraulic parameters. The model performance in terms of AUCROC is insensitive to the variation of the geotechnical parameterization within much of the tested ranges. Assuming fully saturated soils, r.slope.stability produces rather conservative predictions, whereby the results yielded with the sliding surface model are more

  5. Sensitivity analysis in multi-parameter probabilistic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walker, J.R.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic methods involving the use of multi-parameter Monte Carlo analysis can be applied to a wide range of engineering systems. The output from the Monte Carlo analysis is a probabilistic estimate of the system consequence, which can vary spatially and temporally. Sensitivity analysis aims to examine how the output consequence is influenced by the input parameter values. Sensitivity analysis provides the necessary information so that the engineering properties of the system can be optimized. This report details a package of sensitivity analysis techniques that together form an integrated methodology for the sensitivity analysis of probabilistic systems. The techniques have known confidence limits and can be applied to a wide range of engineering problems. The sensitivity analysis methodology is illustrated by performing the sensitivity analysis of the MCROC rock microcracking model

  6. Parameter identification and sensitivity analysis for a robotic manipulator arm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brewer, D. W.; Gibson, J. S.

    1988-01-01

    The development of a nonlinear dynamic model for large oscillations of a robotic manipulator arm about a single joint is described. Optimization routines are formulated and implemented for the identification of electrical and physical parameters from dynamic data taken from an industrial robot arm. Special attention is given to difficulties caused by the large sensitivity of the model with respect to unknown parameters. Performance of the parameter identification algorithm is improved by choosing a control input that allows actuator emf to be included in an electro-mechanical model of the manipulator system.

  7. Global Sensitivity Analysis as Good Modelling Practices tool for the identification of the most influential process parameters of the primary drying step during freeze-drying.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Bockstal, Pieter-Jan; Mortier, Séverine Thérèse F C; Corver, Jos; Nopens, Ingmar; Gernaey, Krist V; De Beer, Thomas

    2018-02-01

    Pharmaceutical batch freeze-drying is commonly used to improve the stability of biological therapeutics. The primary drying step is regulated by the dynamic settings of the adaptable process variables, shelf temperature T s and chamber pressure P c . Mechanistic modelling of the primary drying step leads to the optimal dynamic combination of these adaptable process variables in function of time. According to Good Modelling Practices, a Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) is essential for appropriate model building. In this study, both a regression-based and variance-based GSA were conducted on a validated mechanistic primary drying model to estimate the impact of several model input parameters on two output variables, the product temperature at the sublimation front T i and the sublimation rate ṁ sub . T s was identified as most influential parameter on both T i and ṁ sub , followed by P c and the dried product mass transfer resistance α Rp for T i and ṁ sub , respectively. The GSA findings were experimentally validated for ṁ sub via a Design of Experiments (DoE) approach. The results indicated that GSA is a very useful tool for the evaluation of the impact of different process variables on the model outcome, leading to essential process knowledge, without the need for time-consuming experiments (e.g., DoE). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Response model parameter linking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barrett, M.L.D.

    2015-01-01

    With a few exceptions, the problem of linking item response model parameters from different item calibrations has been conceptualized as an instance of the problem of equating observed scores on different test forms. This thesis argues, however, that the use of item response models does not require

  9. A Recipe for implementing the Arrhenius-Shock-Temperature State Sensitive WSD (AWSD) model, with parameters for PBX 9502

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aslam, Tariq Dennis [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-10-03

    A reactive ow model for the tri-amino-tri-nitro-benzene (TATB) based plastic bonded explosive PBX 9502 is presented. This newly devised model is based primarily on the shock temperature of the material, along with local pressure, and accurately models a broader range of detonation and initiation scenarios. The equation of state for the reactants and products, as well as the thermodynamic closure of pressure and temperature equilibration are carried over from the Wescott-Stewart-Davis (WSD) model7,8. Thus, modifying an existing WSD model in a hydrocode should be rather straightforward.

  10. Material and morphology parameter sensitivity analysis in particulate composite materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaoyu; Oskay, Caglar

    2017-12-01

    This manuscript presents a novel parameter sensitivity analysis framework for damage and failure modeling of particulate composite materials subjected to dynamic loading. The proposed framework employs global sensitivity analysis to study the variance in the failure response as a function of model parameters. In view of the computational complexity of performing thousands of detailed microstructural simulations to characterize sensitivities, Gaussian process (GP) surrogate modeling is incorporated into the framework. In order to capture the discontinuity in response surfaces, the GP models are integrated with a support vector machine classification algorithm that identifies the discontinuities within response surfaces. The proposed framework is employed to quantify variability and sensitivities in the failure response of polymer bonded particulate energetic materials under dynamic loads to material properties and morphological parameters that define the material microstructure. Particular emphasis is placed on the identification of sensitivity to interfaces between the polymer binder and the energetic particles. The proposed framework has been demonstrated to identify the most consequential material and morphological parameters under vibrational and impact loads.

  11. The sensitivity and significance analysis of parameters in the model of pH regulation on lactic acid production by Lactobacillus bulgaricus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ke; Zeng, Xiangmiao; Qiao, Lei; Li, Xisheng; Yang, Yubo; Dai, Cuihong; Hou, Aiju; Xu, Dechang

    2014-01-01

    The excessive production of lactic acid by L. bulgaricus during yogurt storage is a phenomenon we are always tried to prevent. The methods used in industry either control the post-acidification inefficiently or kill the probiotics in yogurt. Genetic methods of changing the activity of one enzyme related to lactic acid metabolism make the bacteria short of energy to growth, although they are efficient ways in controlling lactic acid production. A model of pH-induced promoter regulation on the production of lactic acid by L. bulgaricus was built. The modelled lactic acid metabolism without pH-induced promoter regulation fitted well with wild type L. bulgaricus (R2LAC = 0.943, R2LA = 0.942). Both the local sensitivity analysis and Sobol sensitivity analysis indicated parameters Tmax, GR, KLR, S, V0, V1 and dLR were sensitive. In order to guide the future biology experiments, three adjustable parameters, KLR, V0 and V1, were chosen for further simulations. V0 had little effect on lactic acid production if the pH-induced promoter could be well induced when pH decreased to its threshold. KLR and V1 both exhibited great influence on the producing of lactic acid. The proposed method of introducing a pH-induced promoter to regulate a repressor gene could restrain the synthesis of lactic acid if an appropriate strength of promoter and/or an appropriate strength of ribosome binding sequence (RBS) in lacR gene has been designed.

  12. Biosphere assessment for high-level radioactive waste disposal: modelling experiences and discussion on key parameters by sensitivity analysis in JNC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kato, Tomoko; Makino, Hitoshi; Uchida, Masahiro; Suzuki, Yuji

    2004-01-01

    In the safety assessment of the deep geological disposal system of the high-level radioactive waste (HLW), biosphere assessment is often necessary to estimate future radiological impacts on human beings (e.g. radiation dose). In order to estimate the dose, the surface environment (biosphere) into which future releases of radionuclides might occur and the associated future human behaviour needs to be considered. However, for a deep repository, such releases might not occur for many thousands of years after disposal. Over such timescales, it is impossible to predict with any certainty how the biosphere and human behaviour will evolve. To avoid endless speculation aimed at reducing such uncertainty, the 'Reference Biospheres' concept has been developed for use in the safety assessment of HLW disposal. As the aim of the safety assessment with a hypothetical HLW disposal system by JNC was to demonstrate the technical feasibility and reliability of the Japanese disposal concept for a range of geological and surface environments, some biosphere models were developed using the 'Reference Biospheres' concept and the BIOMASS Methodology. These models have been used to derive factors to convert the radionuclide flux from a geosphere to a biosphere into a dose (flux to dose conversion factors). Moreover, sensitivity analysis for parameters in the biosphere models was performed to evaluate and understand the relative importance of parameters. It was concluded that transport parameters in the surface environments, annual amount of food consumption, distribution coefficients on soils and sediments, transfer coefficients of radionuclides to animal products and concentration ratios for marine organisms would have larger influence on the flux to dose conversion factors than any other parameters. (author)

  13. Input torque sensitivity to uncertain parameters in biped robot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Chang-Tao; Yang, Shi-Xi; Gan, Chun-Biao

    2013-06-01

    Input torque is themain power to maintain bipedal walking of robot, and can be calculated from trajectory planning and dynamic modeling on biped robot. During bipedal walking, the input torque is usually required to be adjusted due to some uncertain parameters arising from objective or subjective factors in the dynamical model to maintain the pre-planned stable trajectory. Here, a planar 5-link biped robot is used as an illustrating example to investigate the effects of uncertain parameters on the input torques. Kinematic equations of the biped robot are firstly established by the third-order spline curves based on the trajectory planning method, and the dynamic modeling is accomplished by taking both the certain and uncertain parameters into account. Next, several evaluation indices on input torques are introduced to perform sensitivity analysis of the input torque with respect to the uncertain parameters. Finally, based on the Monte Carlo simulation, the values of evaluation indices on input torques are presented, from which all the robot parameters are classified into three categories, i.e., strongly sensitive, sensitive and almost insensitive parameters.

  14. Estimation of parameter sensitivities for stochastic reaction networks

    KAUST Repository

    Gupta, Ankit

    2016-01-07

    Quantification of the effects of parameter uncertainty is an important and challenging problem in Systems Biology. We consider this problem in the context of stochastic models of biochemical reaction networks where the dynamics is described as a continuous-time Markov chain whose states represent the molecular counts of various species. For such models, effects of parameter uncertainty are often quantified by estimating the infinitesimal sensitivities of some observables with respect to model parameters. The aim of this talk is to present a holistic approach towards this problem of estimating parameter sensitivities for stochastic reaction networks. Our approach is based on a generic formula which allows us to construct efficient estimators for parameter sensitivity using simulations of the underlying model. We will discuss how novel simulation techniques, such as tau-leaping approximations, multi-level methods etc. can be easily integrated with our approach and how one can deal with stiff reaction networks where reactions span multiple time-scales. We will demonstrate the efficiency and applicability of our approach using many examples from the biological literature.

  15. PROCEEDINGS OF THE INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON UNCERTAINTY, SENSITIVITY, AND PARAMETER ESTIMATION FOR MULTIMEDIA ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING. EPA/600/R-04/117, NUREG/CP-0187, ERDC SR-04-2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    An International Workshop on Uncertainty, Sensitivity, and Parameter Estimation for Multimedia Environmental Modeling was held August 1921, 2003, at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Headquarters in Rockville, Maryland, USA. The workshop was organized and convened by the Fe...

  16. SU-E-I-109: Sensitivity Analysis of an Electronic Portal Imaging Device Monte Carlo Model to Variations in Optical Transport Parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blake, S; Vial, P; Holloway, L; McNamara, A; Greer, P; Kuncic, Z

    2012-06-01

    To investigate the sensitivity of a Monte Carlo (MC) model of a standard clinical amorphous silicon (a-Si) electron portal imaging device (EPID) to variations in optical photon transport parameters. The Geant4 MC toolkit was used to develop a comprehensive model of an indirect-detection a-Si EPID incorporating x-ray and optical photon transport. The EPID was modeled as a series of uniform layers with properties specified by the manufacturer (PerkinElmer, Santa Clara, CA) of a research EPID at our centre. Optical processes that were modeled include bulk absorption, Rayleigh scattering, and boundary processes (reflection and refraction). Model performance was evaluated by scoring optical photons absorbed by the a-Si photodiode as a function of radial distance from a point source of x-rays on an event-by-event basis (0.025 mm resolution). Primary x-ray energies were sampled from a clinical 6 MV photon spectrum. Simulations were performed by varying optical transport parameters and the resulting point spread functions (PSFs) were compared. The optical parameters investigated include: x-ray transport cutoff thresholds; absorption path length; optical energy spectrum; refractive indices; and the 'roughness' of boundaries within phosphor screen layers. The transport cutoffs and refractive indices studied were found to minimally affect resulting PSFs. A monoenergetic optical spectrum slightly broadened the PSF in comparison with the use of a polyenergetic spectrum. The absorption path length only significantly altered the PSF when decreased drastically. Variations in the treatment of boundaries noticeably broadened resulting PSFs. Variation in optical transport parameters was found to affect resulting PSF calculations. Current work is focusing on repeating this analysis with a coarser resolution more typical of a commercial a-Si EPID to observe if these effects continue to alter the EPID PSF. Experimental measurement of the EPID line spread function to validate these

  17. Accuracy and sensitivity analysis on seismic anisotropy parameter estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Fuyong; Han, De-Hua

    2018-04-01

    There is significant uncertainty in measuring the Thomsen’s parameter δ in laboratory even though the dimensions and orientations of the rock samples are known. It is expected that more challenges will be encountered in the estimating of the seismic anisotropy parameters from field seismic data. Based on Monte Carlo simulation of vertical transversely isotropic layer cake model using the database of laboratory anisotropy measurement from the literature, we apply the commonly used quartic non-hyperbolic reflection moveout equation to estimate the seismic anisotropy parameters and test its accuracy and sensitivities to the source-receive offset, vertical interval velocity error and time picking error. The testing results show that the methodology works perfectly for noise-free synthetic data with short spread length. However, this method is extremely sensitive to the time picking error caused by mild random noises, and it requires the spread length to be greater than the depth of the reflection event. The uncertainties increase rapidly for the deeper layers and the estimated anisotropy parameters can be very unreliable for a layer with more than five overlain layers. It is possible that an isotropic formation can be misinterpreted as a strong anisotropic formation. The sensitivity analysis should provide useful guidance on how to group the reflection events and build a suitable geological model for anisotropy parameter inversion.

  18. Differences in model sensitivities to ammonia air-surface exchange parameters in unmanaged and agricultural ecosystems in a regional air-quality model coupled to an agro-ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bash, J. O.; Dennis, R. L.; Cooter, E. J.; Pleim, J.; Walker, J. T.

    2011-12-01

    Atmospheric ammonia (NH3) is an important precursor for particulate matter and NHx (NH3 + NH4+) deposition contributes to surface water eutrophication, soil acidification and decline in species biodiversity, yet NH3 emissions are challenging to estimate and concentrations are difficult to measure. As climate change leads to increased variability in meteorology, relying on seasonal averages as the drivers for NH3 emissions estimates adds additional uncertainty to model simulations. It is necessary to capture the dynamic and episodic nature of ammonia emissions, including the influences of meteorology, air-surface exchange, biogeochemistry and human activity to reduce uncertainty in model scenarios of NH3 emissions mitigation strategies, agricultural food production and climate change. The U.S. EPA's Community Multiscale Air-Quality (CMAQ) model with bidirectional NH3 exchange has been coupled with the USDA Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) agro-ecosystem model's nitrogen geochemistry algorithms to connect agricultural cropping management practices to the emissions and atmospheric composition of reduced nitrogen and model the biogeochemical feedbacks on NH3 air-surface exchange. The coupled model reduced the annual NHx wet deposition bias on a domain wide basis by ~15% and the annual biases in ambient NH4+ concentrations at background sites by ~10%. Details of the coupled model and the sensitivity of NH3 air-surface exchange and ambient NH3 and aerosol NH4+ concentrations on the soil and vegetation NH4+ content will be presented from continental scale model simulations. NH3 exchange is most sensitive to the parameterization of the vegetation canopy NH3 compensation point and canopy resistances to air-surface exchange in unmanaged ecosystems while soil compensation points and soil resistance parameters are driving the air-surface exchange in agricultural cropping systems. Climate and land use change implication of the model sensitivities and future

  19. Parameter sensitivity of high-order equivalent circuit models of turbine generator; Sensibilidad parametrica de modelos de circuitos equivalentes de orden superior de turbogeneradores

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopez Garcia, I.; Escalera Perez, R. [Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana - Azcapotzalco (Mexico)]. E-mail: irvinlopez@yahoo.com; r.escalera@ieee.org; Niewierowicz Swiecicka, T. [Instituto Politecnico Nacional, U.P. Adolfo Lopez Mateos (Mexico)]. E-mail: tniewi@ipn.mx; Campero Littlewood, E.[Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana - Azcapotzalco (Mexico)]. E-mail: ecl@correo.azc.uam.mx

    2010-01-15

    This work shows the results of a parametric sensitivity analysis applied to a state-space representation of high-order two-axis equivalent circuits (Ecs) of a turbo generator (150 MVA, 120 MW, 13.8 kV y 50 Hz). The main purpose of this study is to evaluate each parameter impact on the transient response of the analyzed two axis models -d axis Ecs with one to five damper branches and q axis Ecs from one to four damper branches-. The parametric sensitivity concept is formulated in a general context and the sensibility function is established from the generator response to a short circuit condition. Results ponder the importance played by each parameter in the model behavior. The algorithms were design within MATLAB environment. The study gives way to conclusion on electromagnetic aspects of solid rotor synchronous generators that have not been previously studied. The methodology presented here can be applied to any other physical system. [Spanish] En este trabajo se presentan los resultados del analisis de sensibilidad parametrica realizado a modelos de circuitos equivalentes de orden superior de un turbogenerador (150 MVA, 120 MW, 13.8 kV y 50 Hz). La representacion del generador sincrono se hace en el espacio de estados, utilizando la teoria de dos ejes (d y a). El objetivo del estudio de sensibilidad es evaluar el impacto que tiene cada uno de los parametros en la respuesta transitoria de los modelos analizados -circuitos equivalentes desde una hasta cinco ramas de amortiguamiento en el eje d y de una a cuatro ramas en el eje q-. En este trabajo el concepto de sensibilidad parametrica se formula en terminos generales, planteando la funcion de sensibilidad a partir de condiciones de cortocircuito en las terminales del generador. Los resultados se presentan senalando el nivel de importancia de cada parametro en el comportamiento del modelo. Los algoritmos utilizados fueron disenados en MATLAB. Asi, este estudio permite inferir aspectos electromagneticos de los

  20. Adjustment of the dynamic weight distribution as a sensitive parameter for diagnosis of postural alteration in a rodent model of vestibular deficit.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brahim Tighilet

    Full Text Available Vestibular disorders, by inducing significant posturo-locomotor and cognitive disorders, can significantly impair the most basic tasks of everyday life. Their precise diagnosis is essential to implement appropriate therapeutic countermeasures. Monitoring their evolution is also very important to validate or, on the contrary, to adapt the undertaken therapeutic actions. To date, the diagnosis methods of posturo-locomotor impairments are restricted to examinations that most often lack sensitivity and precision. In the present work we studied the alterations of the dynamic weight distribution in a rodent model of sudden and complete unilateral vestibular loss. We used a system of force sensors connected to a data analysis system to quantify in real time and in an automated way the weight bearing of the animal on the ground. We show here that sudden, unilateral, complete and permanent loss of the vestibular inputs causes a severe alteration of the dynamic ground weight distribution of vestibulo lesioned rodents. Characteristics of alterations in the dynamic weight distribution vary over time and follow the sequence of appearance and disappearance of the various symptoms that compose the vestibular syndrome. This study reveals for the first time that dynamic weight bearing is a very sensitive parameter for evaluating posturo-locomotor function impairment. Associated with more classical vestibular examinations, this paradigm can considerably enrich the methods for assessing and monitoring vestibular disorders. Systematic application of this type of evaluation to the dizzy or unstable patient could improve the detection of vestibular deficits and allow predicting better their impact on posture and walk. Thus it could also allow a better follow-up of the therapeutic approaches for rehabilitating gait and balance.

  1. ECOS - analysis of sensitivity to database and input parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sumerling, T.J.; Jones, C.H.

    1986-06-01

    The sensitivity of doses calculated by the generic biosphere code ECOS to parameter changes has been investigated by the authors for the Department of the Environment as part of its radioactive waste management research programme. The sensitivity of results to radionuclide dependent parameters has been tested by specifying reasonable parameter ranges and performing code runs for best estimate, upper-bound and lower-bound parameter values. The work indicates that doses are most sensitive to scenario parameters: geosphere input fractions, area of contaminated land, land use and diet, flux of contaminated waters and water use. Recommendations are made based on the results of sensitivity. (author)

  2. Seismic analysis of steam generator and parameter sensitivity studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qian Hao; Xu Dinggen; Yang Ren'an; Liang Xingyun

    2013-01-01

    Background: The steam generator (SG) serves as the primary means for removing the heat generated within the reactor core and is part of the reactor coolant system (RCS) pressure boundary. Purpose: Seismic analysis in required for SG, whose seismic category is Cat. I. Methods: The analysis model of SG is created with moisture separator assembly and tube bundle assembly herein. The seismic analysis is performed with RCS pipe and Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV). Results: The seismic stress results of SG are obtained. In addition, parameter sensitivities of seismic analysis results are studied, such as the effect of another SG, support, anti-vibration bars (AVBs), and so on. Our results show that seismic results are sensitive to support and AVBs setting. Conclusions: The guidance and comments on these parameters are summarized for equipment design and analysis, which should be focused on in future new type NPP SG's research and design. (authors)

  3. the sensitivity of evapotranspiration models to errors in model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr Obe

    ABSTRACT. Five evapotranspiration (Et) model-the penman, Blaney - Criddel, Thornthwaite, the Blaney –. Morin-Nigeria, and the Jensen and Haise models – were analyzed for parameter sensitivity under Nigerian Climatic conditions. The sensitivity of each model to errors in any of its measured parameters (variables) was ...

  4. Structural sensitivity of biological models revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cordoleani, Flora; Flora, Cordoleani; Nerini, David; David, Nerini; Gauduchon, Mathias; Mathias, Gauduchon; Morozov, Andrew; Andrew, Morozov; Poggiale, Jean-Christophe; Jean-Christophe, Poggiale

    2011-08-21

    Enhancing the predictive power of models in biology is a challenging issue. Among the major difficulties impeding model development and implementation are the sensitivity of outcomes to variations in model parameters, the problem of choosing of particular expressions for the parametrization of functional relations, and difficulties in validating models using laboratory data and/or field observations. In this paper, we revisit the phenomenon which is referred to as structural sensitivity of a model. Structural sensitivity arises as a result of the interplay between sensitivity of model outcomes to variations in parameters and sensitivity to the choice of model functions, and this can be somewhat of a bottleneck in improving the models predictive power. We provide a rigorous definition of structural sensitivity and we show how we can quantify the degree of sensitivity of a model based on the Hausdorff distance concept. We propose a simple semi-analytical test of structural sensitivity in an ODE modeling framework. Furthermore, we emphasize the importance of directly linking the variability of field/experimental data and model predictions, and we demonstrate a way of assessing the robustness of modeling predictions with respect to data sampling variability. As an insightful illustrative example, we test our sensitivity analysis methods on a chemostat predator-prey model, where we use laboratory data on the feeding of protozoa to parameterize the predator functional response. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Determination of dose distributions and parameter sensitivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Napier, B.A.; Farris, W.T.; Simpson, J.C.

    1992-12-01

    A series of scoping calculations has been undertaken to evaluate the absolute and relative contribution of different radionuclides and exposure pathways to doses that may have been received by individuals living in the vicinity of the Hanford site. This scoping calculation (Calculation 005) examined the contributions of numerous parameters to the uncertainty distribution of doses calculated for environmental exposures and accumulation in foods. This study builds on the work initiated in the first scoping study of iodine in cow's milk and the third scoping study, which added additional pathways. Addressed in this calculation were the contributions to thyroid dose of infants from (1) air submersion and groundshine external dose, (2) inhalation, (3) ingestion of soil by humans, (4) ingestion of leafy vegetables, (5) ingestion of other vegetables and fruits, (6) ingestion of meat, (7) ingestion of eggs, and (8) ingestion of cows' milk from Feeding Regime 1 as described in Calculation 001

  6. Sensitivity Test of Parameters Influencing Flood Hydrograph Routing with a Diffusion-Wave Distributed using Distributed Hydrological Model, Wet Spa, in Ziarat Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    narges javidan

    2017-02-01

    , evapotranspiration, temperature, and discharge are used as inputs. Additionally, three main maps of the digital elevation model, soil map (texture, and landuse are also applied and converted to digital formats. The result of the simulation shows a good agreement between the simulated hydrography and the observed one. The routing of overland flow and channel flow is implemented by the method of the diffusive wave approximation. A sensitivity test shows that the parameter of flood frequency and the channel roughness coefficient have a large influence on the outflow hydrography and the calculated watershed unit hydrograph, while the threshold of minimum slope and the threshold of drainage area in delineating channel networks have a marginal effect.

  7. Sensitivity analysis of an ocean carbon cycle model in the North Atlantic: an investigation of parameters affecting the air-sea CO2 flux, primary production and export of detritus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. J. Merchant

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The sensitivity of the biological parameters in a nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus (NPZD model in the calculation of the air-sea CO2 flux, primary production and detrital export is analysed. We explore the effect on these outputs of variation in the values of the twenty parameters that control ocean ecosystem growth in a 1-D formulation of the UK Met Office HadOCC NPZD model used in GCMs. We use and compare the results from one-at-a-time and all-at-a-time perturbations performed at three sites in the EuroSITES European Ocean Observatory Network: the Central Irminger Sea (60° N 40° W, the Porcupine Abyssal Plain (49° N 16° W and the European Station for Time series in the Ocean Canary Islands (29° N 15° W. Reasonable changes to the values of key parameters are shown to have a large effect on the calculation of the air-sea CO2 flux, primary production, and export of biological detritus to the deep ocean. Changes in the values of key parameters have a greater effect in more productive regions than in less productive areas. The most sensitive parameters are generally found to be those controlling well-established ocean ecosystem parameterisations widely used in many NPZD-type models. The air-sea CO2 flux is most influenced by variation in the parameters that control phytoplankton growth, detrital sinking and carbonate production by phytoplankton (the rain ratio. Primary production is most sensitive to the parameters that define the shape of the photosynthesis-irradiance curve. Export production is most sensitive to the parameters that control the rate of detrital sinking and the remineralisation of detritus.

  8. Computational Method for Global Sensitivity Analysis of Reactor Neutronic Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bolade A. Adetula

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The variance-based global sensitivity analysis technique is robust, has a wide range of applicability, and provides accurate sensitivity information for most models. However, it requires input variables to be statistically independent. A modification to this technique that allows one to deal with input variables that are blockwise correlated and normally distributed is presented. The focus of this study is the application of the modified global sensitivity analysis technique to calculations of reactor parameters that are dependent on groupwise neutron cross-sections. The main effort in this work is in establishing a method for a practical numerical calculation of the global sensitivity indices. The implementation of the method involves the calculation of multidimensional integrals, which can be prohibitively expensive to compute. Numerical techniques specifically suited to the evaluation of multidimensional integrals, namely, Monte Carlo and sparse grids methods, are used, and their efficiency is compared. The method is illustrated and tested on a two-group cross-section dependent problem. In all the cases considered, the results obtained with sparse grids achieved much better accuracy while using a significantly smaller number of samples. This aspect is addressed in a ministudy, and a preliminary explanation of the results obtained is given.

  9. Context Sensitive Modeling of Cancer Drug Sensitivity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo-Juen Chen

    Full Text Available Recent screening of drug sensitivity in large panels of cancer cell lines provides a valuable resource towards developing algorithms that predict drug response. Since more samples provide increased statistical power, most approaches to prediction of drug sensitivity pool multiple cancer types together without distinction. However, pan-cancer results can be misleading due to the confounding effects of tissues or cancer subtypes. On the other hand, independent analysis for each cancer-type is hampered by small sample size. To balance this trade-off, we present CHER (Contextual Heterogeneity Enabled Regression, an algorithm that builds predictive models for drug sensitivity by selecting predictive genomic features and deciding which ones should-and should not-be shared across different cancers, tissues and drugs. CHER provides significantly more accurate models of drug sensitivity than comparable elastic-net-based models. Moreover, CHER provides better insight into the underlying biological processes by finding a sparse set of shared and type-specific genomic features.

  10. Nuclear data adjustment methodology utilizing resonance parameter sensitivities and uncertainties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Broadhead, B.L.

    1984-01-01

    This work presents the development and demonstration of a Nuclear Data Adjustment Method that allows inclusion of both energy and spatial self-shielding into the adjustment procedure. The resulting adjustments are for the basic parameters (i.e., resonance parameters) in the resonance regions and for the group cross sections elsewhere. The majority of this development effort concerns the production of resonance parameter sensitivity information which allows the linkage between the responses of interest and the basic parameters. The resonance parameter sensitivity methodology developed herein usually provides accurate results when compared to direct recalculations using existing and well-known cross section processing codes. However, it has been shown in several cases that self-shielded cross sections can be very non-linear functions of the basic parameters. For this reason caution must be used in any study which assumes that a linear relationship exists between a given self-shielded group cross section and its corresponding basic data parameters.

  11. Robust estimation of hydrological model parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bárdossy

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available The estimation of hydrological model parameters is a challenging task. With increasing capacity of computational power several complex optimization algorithms have emerged, but none of the algorithms gives a unique and very best parameter vector. The parameters of fitted hydrological models depend upon the input data. The quality of input data cannot be assured as there may be measurement errors for both input and state variables. In this study a methodology has been developed to find a set of robust parameter vectors for a hydrological model. To see the effect of observational error on parameters, stochastically generated synthetic measurement errors were applied to observed discharge and temperature data. With this modified data, the model was calibrated and the effect of measurement errors on parameters was analysed. It was found that the measurement errors have a significant effect on the best performing parameter vector. The erroneous data led to very different optimal parameter vectors. To overcome this problem and to find a set of robust parameter vectors, a geometrical approach based on Tukey's half space depth was used. The depth of the set of N randomly generated parameters was calculated with respect to the set with the best model performance (Nash-Sutclife efficiency was used for this study for each parameter vector. Based on the depth of parameter vectors, one can find a set of robust parameter vectors. The results show that the parameters chosen according to the above criteria have low sensitivity and perform well when transfered to a different time period. The method is demonstrated on the upper Neckar catchment in Germany. The conceptual HBV model was used for this study.

  12. Neutrino Oscillation Parameter Sensitivity in Future Long-Baseline Experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bass, Matthew [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States)

    2014-01-01

    The study of neutrino interactions and propagation has produced evidence for physics beyond the standard model and promises to continue to shed light on rare phenomena. Since the discovery of neutrino oscillations in the late 1990s there have been rapid advances in establishing the three flavor paradigm of neutrino oscillations. The 2012 discovery of a large value for the last unmeasured missing angle has opened the way for future experiments to search for charge-parity symmetry violation in the lepton sector. This thesis presents an analysis of the future sensitivity to neutrino oscillations in the three flavor paradigm for the T2K, NO A, LBNE, and T2HK experiments. The theory of the three flavor paradigm is explained and the methods to use these theoretical predictions to design long baseline neutrino experiments are described. The sensitivity to the oscillation parameters for each experiment is presented with a particular focus on the search for CP violation and the measurement of the neutrino mass hierarchy. The variations of these sensitivities with statistical considerations and experimental design optimizations taken into account are explored. The effects of systematic uncertainties in the neutrino flux, interaction, and detection predictions are also considered by incorporating more advanced simulations inputs from the LBNE experiment.

  13. Sensitivity analysis on parameters and processes affecting vapor intrusion risk

    KAUST Repository

    Picone, Sara

    2012-03-30

    A one-dimensional numerical model was developed and used to identify the key processes controlling vapor intrusion risks by means of a sensitivity analysis. The model simulates the fate of a dissolved volatile organic compound present below the ventilated crawl space of a house. In contrast to the vast majority of previous studies, this model accounts for vertical variation of soil water saturation and includes aerobic biodegradation. The attenuation factor (ratio between concentration in the crawl space and source concentration) and the characteristic time to approach maximum concentrations were calculated and compared for a variety of scenarios. These concepts allow an understanding of controlling mechanisms and aid in the identification of critical parameters to be collected for field situations. The relative distance of the source to the nearest gas-filled pores of the unsaturated zone is the most critical parameter because diffusive contaminant transport is significantly slower in water-filled pores than in gas-filled pores. Therefore, attenuation factors decrease and characteristic times increase with increasing relative distance of the contaminant dissolved source to the nearest gas diffusion front. Aerobic biodegradation may decrease the attenuation factor by up to three orders of magnitude. Moreover, the occurrence of water table oscillations is of importance. Dynamic processes leading to a retreating water table increase the attenuation factor by two orders of magnitude because of the enhanced gas phase diffusion. © 2012 SETAC.

  14. Model parameter updating using Bayesian networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Treml, C. A. (Christine A.); Ross, Timothy J.

    2004-01-01

    This paper outlines a model parameter updating technique for a new method of model validation using a modified model reference adaptive control (MRAC) framework with Bayesian Networks (BNs). The model parameter updating within this method is generic in the sense that the model/simulation to be validated is treated as a black box. It must have updateable parameters to which its outputs are sensitive, and those outputs must have metrics that can be compared to that of the model reference, i.e., experimental data. Furthermore, no assumptions are made about the statistics of the model parameter uncertainty, only upper and lower bounds need to be specified. This method is designed for situations where a model is not intended to predict a complete point-by-point time domain description of the item/system behavior; rather, there are specific points, features, or events of interest that need to be predicted. These specific points are compared to the model reference derived from actual experimental data. The logic for updating the model parameters to match the model reference is formed via a BN. The nodes of this BN consist of updateable model input parameters and the specific output values or features of interest. Each time the model is executed, the input/output pairs are used to adapt the conditional probabilities of the BN. Each iteration further refines the inferred model parameters to produce the desired model output. After parameter updating is complete and model inputs are inferred, reliabilities for the model output are supplied. Finally, this method is applied to a simulation of a resonance control cooling system for a prototype coupled cavity linac. The results are compared to experimental data.

  15. Linking Item Response Model Parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Linden, Wim J; Barrett, Michelle D

    2016-09-01

    With a few exceptions, the problem of linking item response model parameters from different item calibrations has been conceptualized as an instance of the problem of test equating scores on different test forms. This paper argues, however, that the use of item response models does not require any test score equating. Instead, it involves the necessity of parameter linking due to a fundamental problem inherent in the formal nature of these models-their general lack of identifiability. More specifically, item response model parameters need to be linked to adjust for the different effects of the identifiability restrictions used in separate item calibrations. Our main theorems characterize the formal nature of these linking functions for monotone, continuous response models, derive their specific shapes for different parameterizations of the 3PL model, and show how to identify them from the parameter values of the common items or persons in different linking designs.

  16. Small particle bed reactors: Sensitivity to Brayton cycle parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coiner, John R.; Short, Barry J.

    Relatively simple particle bed reactor (PBR) algorithms were developed for optimizing low power closed Brayton cycle (CBC) systems. These algorithms allow the system designer to understand the relationship among key system parameters as well as the sensitivity of the PBR size and mass (a major system component) to variations in these parameters. Thus, system optimization can be achieved.

  17. Regional analysis of parameter sensitivity for simulation of streamflow and hydrological fingerprints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Höllering, Simon; Wienhöfer, Jan; Ihringer, Jürgen; Samaniego, Luis; Zehe, Erwin

    2018-01-01

    Diagnostics of hydrological models are pivotal for a better understanding of catchment functioning, and the analysis of dominating model parameters plays a key role for region-specific calibration or parameter transfer. A major challenge in the analysis of parameter sensitivity is the assessment of both temporal and spatial differences of parameter influences on simulated streamflow response. We present a methodological approach for global sensitivity analysis of hydrological models. The multilevel approach is geared towards complementary forms of streamflow response targets, and combines sensitivity analysis directed to hydrological fingerprints, i.e. temporally independent and temporally aggregated characteristics of streamflow (INDPAS), with the conventional analysis of the temporal dynamics of parameter sensitivity (TEDPAS). The approach was tested in 14 mesoscale headwater catchments of the Ruhr River in western Germany using simulations with the spatially distributed hydrological model mHM. The multilevel analysis with diverse response characteristics allowed us to pinpoint parameter sensitivity patterns much more clearly as compared to using TEDPAS alone. It was not only possible to identify two dominating parameters, for soil moisture dynamics and evapotranspiration, but we could also disentangle the role of these and other parameters with reference to different streamflow characteristics. The combination of TEDPAS and INDPAS further allowed us to detect regional differences in parameter sensitivity and in simulated hydrological functioning, despite the rather small differences in the hydroclimatic and topographic setting of the Ruhr headwaters.

  18. Groundwater pathway sensitivity analysis and hydrogeologic parameters identification for waste disposal in porous media

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, C.

    1986-01-01

    The migration of radionuclides in a geologic medium is controlled by the hydrogeologic parameters of the medium such as dispersion coefficient, pore water velocity, retardation factor, degradation rate, mass transfer coefficient, water content, and fraction of dead-end pores. These hydrogeologic parameters are often used to predict the migration of buried wastes in nuclide transport models such as the conventional advection-dispersion model, the mobile-immobile pores model, the nonequilibrium adsorption-desorption model, and the general group transfer concentration model. One of the most important factors determining the accuracy of predicting waste migration is the accuracy of the parameter values used in the model. More sensitive parameters have a greater influence on the results and hence should determined (measured or estimated) more accurately than less sensitive parameters. A formal parameter sensitivity analysis is carried out in this paper. Parameter identification techniques to determine the hydrogeologic parameters of the flow system are discussed. The dependence of the accuracy of the estimated parameters upon the parameter sensitivity is also discussed

  19. Parameter Sensitivity In Vector Controlled Ac Motor Drives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnan, R.; Pillay, P.

    1987-10-01

    The relatively recent development of the theory of vector control has enabled ac machines to be transformed, performance wise, into equivalent separately excited dc machines while retaining the many advantages that ac machines have over dc. The ac machines used include the induction and permanent magnet synchronous motors. A precise knowledge of the machine parameters is needed in order to implement indirect vector control on induction motor drive systems where the position of the rotor flux is not measured. If the machine parameters change relative to the preset values in the vector controller, then the decoupling of the torque and flux channels, which is the object of vector control, is lost. Low frequency torque and speed oscillations can result with a consequent degradation in the drive performance. The PMSM drive system is also parameter sensitive although not depending on the same parameters as the induction motor drive. It is well known that machine parameters change with temperature, saturation and on the frequency of operation. An assessment of the overall performance of an ac motor drive must therefore include a study of its parameter sensitivity. In this paper, a detailed steady state study of parameter sensitivity for both the induction and permanent magnet machines is done. Comparisons are also made based on the results of this investigation.

  20. Importance and sensitivity of parameters affecting the Zion Seismic Risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    George, L.L.; O' Connell, W.J.

    1985-06-01

    This report presents the results of a study on the importance and sensitivity of structures, systems, equipment, components and design parameters used in the Zion Seismic Risk Calculations. This study is part of the Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) supported by the NRC Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. The objective of this study is to provide the NRC with results on the importance and sensitivity of parameters used to evaluate seismic risk. These results can assist the NRC in making decisions dealing with the allocation of research resources on seismic issues. This study uses marginal analysis in addition to importance and sensitivity analysis to identify subject areas (input parameter areas) for improvements that reduce risk, estimate how much the improvement dfforts reduce risk, and rank the subject areas for improvements. Importance analysis identifies the systems, components, and parameters that are important to risk. Sensitivity analysis estimates the change in risk per unit improvement. Marginal analysis indicates the reduction in risk or uncertainty for improvement effort made in each subject area. The results described in this study were generated using the SEISIM (Systematic Evaluation of Important Safety Improvement Measures) and CHAIN computer codes. Part 1 of the SEISIM computer code generated the failure probabilities and risk values. Part 2 of SEISIM, along with the CHAIN computer code, generated the importance and sensitivity measures.

  1. Sensitivity of reentrant driver localization to electrophysiological parameter variability in image-based computational models of persistent atrial fibrillation sustained by a fibrotic substrate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Dongdong; Murphy, Michael J.; Hakim, Joe B.; Franceschi, William H.; Zahid, Sohail; Pashakhanloo, Farhad; Trayanova, Natalia A.; Boyle, Patrick M.

    2017-09-01

    Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained cardiac arrhythmia, causing morbidity and mortality in millions worldwide. The atria of patients with persistent AF (PsAF) are characterized by the presence of extensive and distributed atrial fibrosis, which facilitates the formation of persistent reentrant drivers (RDs, i.e., spiral waves), which promote fibrillatory activity. Targeted catheter ablation of RD-harboring tissues has shown promise as a clinical treatment for PsAF, but the outcomes remain sub-par. Personalized computational modeling has been proposed as a means of non-invasively predicting optimal ablation targets in individual PsAF patients, but it remains unclear how RD localization dynamics are influenced by inter-patient variability in the spatial distribution of atrial fibrosis, action potential duration (APD), and conduction velocity (CV). Here, we conduct simulations in computational models of fibrotic atria derived from the clinical imaging of PsAF patients to characterize the sensitivity of RD locations to these three factors. We show that RDs consistently anchor to boundaries between fibrotic and non-fibrotic tissues, as delineated by late gadolinium-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging, but those changes in APD/CV can enhance or attenuate the likelihood that an RD will anchor to a specific site. These findings show that the level of uncertainty present in patient-specific atrial models reconstructed without any invasive measurements (i.e., incorporating each individual's unique distribution of fibrotic tissue from medical imaging alongside an average representation of AF-remodeled electrophysiology) is sufficiently high that a personalized ablation strategy based on targeting simulation-predicted RD trajectories alone may not produce the desired result.

  2. Sensitivity Analysis in Sequential Decision Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qiushi; Ayer, Turgay; Chhatwal, Jagpreet

    2017-02-01

    Sequential decision problems are frequently encountered in medical decision making, which are commonly solved using Markov decision processes (MDPs). Modeling guidelines recommend conducting sensitivity analyses in decision-analytic models to assess the robustness of the model results against the uncertainty in model parameters. However, standard methods of conducting sensitivity analyses cannot be directly applied to sequential decision problems because this would require evaluating all possible decision sequences, typically in the order of trillions, which is not practically feasible. As a result, most MDP-based modeling studies do not examine confidence in their recommended policies. In this study, we provide an approach to estimate uncertainty and confidence in the results of sequential decision models. First, we provide a probabilistic univariate method to identify the most sensitive parameters in MDPs. Second, we present a probabilistic multivariate approach to estimate the overall confidence in the recommended optimal policy considering joint uncertainty in the model parameters. We provide a graphical representation, which we call a policy acceptability curve, to summarize the confidence in the optimal policy by incorporating stakeholders' willingness to accept the base case policy. For a cost-effectiveness analysis, we provide an approach to construct a cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier, which shows the most cost-effective policy as well as the confidence in that for a given willingness to pay threshold. We demonstrate our approach using a simple MDP case study. We developed a method to conduct sensitivity analysis in sequential decision models, which could increase the credibility of these models among stakeholders.

  3. Sensitivity Analysis and Identification of Parameters to the Van Genuchten Equation

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Guangzhou; Jiao, Lifeng; Li, Xinhai

    2016-01-01

    Van Genuchten equation is the soil water characteristic curve equation used commonly, and identifying (estimating) accurately its parameters plays an important role in the study on the movement of soil water. Selecting the desorption and absorption experimental data of silt loam from a northwest region in China as an instance, Monte-Carlo method was firstly applied to analyze sensitivity of the parameters and uncertainty of model so as to get the key parameters and posteriori parameter distri...

  4. Sensitivity analysis of railpad parameters on vertical railway track dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oregui Echeverria-Berreyarza, M.; Nunez Vicencio, Alfredo; Dollevoet, R.P.B.J.; Li, Z.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a sensitivity analysis of railpad parameters on vertical railway track dynamics, incorporating the nonlinear behavior of the fastening (i.e., downward forces compress the railpad whereas upward forces are resisted by the clamps). For this purpose, solid railpads, rail-railpad

  5. Sensitivity of weather besed irrigation scheduling model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laghari, K.Q.; Lashari, B.K.; Laghari, N.U.Z.

    2009-01-01

    This study describes the sensitivity of irrigation scheduling model (Mehran) carried out by changing input weather parameters (Temperatures, Wind velocity, Rainfall, and Sunshine hours) to see model sensitivity in computation/estimations (output) for Transpiration (T), Evaporation (E), and allocation of irrigation (I) water. Sensitivity analysis depends on the site and environmental conditions and is therefore an essential step in model validation and application. Mehran Model is weather based crop growth simulation model, which uses daily input data of max and min temperatures (temp), dew point temp (humidity), wind speed, daily sunshine hours (radiation) and computes T/sub c/E/sub s/, and allocates Irrigation accordingly. The input and output base values are taken as an average of three years actual field data used during the Mehran Model testing and calibration on wheat and cotton crops. The model sensitivity of specific input parameter was obtained by varying its value and keeping other input parameters at their base values. The input base values varied by+-10 and +-25%. The model was run for each modified input parameter, and output was compared statistically with base outputs. The ME% (Mean Percent Error) was used to obtain variations in output values. The results reveal that the model is most sensitive with variations in temperature. The 10 and 25% increase in temperature resulted increase in Cotton crop's Tc by 12.18 and 28.54%, corresponding Es by 22.32 and 37.88% and irrigation water allocation by 18.41 and 47.83 % respectively increased from average base values. (author)

  6. Development of an artificial neural network model for risk assessment of skin sensitization using human cell line activation test, direct peptide reactivity assay, KeratinoSens™ and in silico structure alert parameter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirota, Morihiko; Ashikaga, Takao; Kouzuki, Hirokazu

    2018-04-01

    It is important to predict the potential of cosmetic ingredients to cause skin sensitization, and in accordance with the European Union cosmetic directive for the replacement of animal tests, several in vitro tests based on the adverse outcome pathway have been developed for hazard identification, such as the direct peptide reactivity assay, KeratinoSens™ and the human cell line activation test. Here, we describe the development of an artificial neural network (ANN) prediction model for skin sensitization risk assessment based on the integrated testing strategy concept, using direct peptide reactivity assay, KeratinoSens™, human cell line activation test and an in silico or structure alert parameter. We first investigated the relationship between published murine local lymph node assay EC3 values, which represent skin sensitization potency, and in vitro test results using a panel of about 134 chemicals for which all the required data were available. Predictions based on ANN analysis using combinations of parameters from all three in vitro tests showed a good correlation with local lymph node assay EC3 values. However, when the ANN model was applied to a testing set of 28 chemicals that had not been included in the training set, predicted EC3s were overestimated for some chemicals. Incorporation of an additional in silico or structure alert descriptor (obtained with TIMES-M or Toxtree software) in the ANN model improved the results. Our findings suggest that the ANN model based on the integrated testing strategy concept could be useful for evaluating the skin sensitization potential. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Sensitivity-Based Guided Model Calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semnani, M.; Asadzadeh, M.

    2017-12-01

    A common practice in automatic calibration of hydrologic models is applying the sensitivity analysis prior to the global optimization to reduce the number of decision variables (DVs) by identifying the most sensitive ones. This two-stage process aims to improve the optimization efficiency. However, Parameter sensitivity information can be used to enhance the ability of the optimization algorithms to find good quality solutions in a fewer number of solution evaluations. This improvement can be achieved by increasing the focus of optimization on sampling from the most sensitive parameters in each iteration. In this study, the selection process of the dynamically dimensioned search (DDS) optimization algorithm is enhanced by utilizing a sensitivity analysis method to put more emphasis on the most sensitive decision variables for perturbation. The performance of DDS with the sensitivity information is compared to the original version of DDS for different mathematical test functions and a model calibration case study. Overall, the results show that DDS with sensitivity information finds nearly the same solutions as original DDS, however, in a significantly fewer number of solution evaluations.

  8. Numerical efficiency calibration of in vivo measurement systems. Monte Carlo simulations of in vivo measurement scenarios for the detection of incorporated radionuclides, including validation, analysis of efficiency-sensitive parameters and customized anthropomorphic voxel models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hegenbart, Lars

    2010-01-01

    Detector efficiency calibration of in vivo bioassay measurements is based on physical anthropomorphic phantoms that can be loaded with radionuclides of the suspected incorporation. Systematic errors of traditional calibration methods can cause considerable over- or underestimation of the incorporated activity and hence the absorbed dose in the human body. In this work Monte Carlo methods for radiation transport problem are used. Virtual models of the in vivo measurement equipment used at the Institute of Radiation Research, including detectors and anthropomorphic phantoms have been developed. Software tools have been coded to handle memory intensive human models for the visualization, preparation and evaluation of simulations of in vivo measurement scenarios. The used tools, methods, and models have been validated. Various parameters have been investigated for their sensitivity on the detector efficiency to identify and quantify possible systematic errors. Measures have been implemented to improve the determination of the detector efficiency in regard to apply them in the routine of the in vivo measurement laboratory of the institute. A positioning system has been designed and installed in the Partial Body Counter measurement chamber to measure the relative position of the detector to the test person, which has been identified to be a sensitive parameter. A computer cluster has been set up to facilitate the Monte Carlo simulations and reduce computing time. Methods based on image registration techniques have been developed to transform existing human models to match with an individual test person. The measures and methods developed have improved the classic detector efficiency methods successfully. (orig.)

  9. On conditions and parameters important to model sensitivity for unsaturated flow through layered, fractured tuff; Results of analyses for HYDROCOIN [Hydrologic Code Intercomparison Project] Level 3 Case 2: Yucca Mountain Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prindle, R.W.; Hopkins, P.L.

    1990-10-01

    The Hydrologic Code Intercomparison Project (HYDROCOIN) was formed to evaluate hydrogeologic models and computer codes and their use in performance assessment for high-level radioactive-waste repositories. This report describes the results of a study for HYDROCOIN of model sensitivity for isothermal, unsaturated flow through layered, fractured tuffs. We investigated both the types of flow behavior that dominate the performance measures and the conditions and model parameters that control flow behavior. We also examined the effect of different conceptual models and modeling approaches on our understanding of system behavior. The analyses included single- and multiple-parameter variations about base cases in one-dimensional steady and transient flow and in two-dimensional steady flow. The flow behavior is complex even for the highly simplified and constrained system modeled here. The response of the performance measures is both nonlinear and nonmonotonic. System behavior is dominated by abrupt transitions from matrix to fracture flow and by lateral diversion of flow. The observed behaviors are strongly influenced by the imposed boundary conditions and model constraints. Applied flux plays a critical role in determining the flow type but interacts strongly with the composite-conductivity curves of individual hydrologic units and with the stratigraphy. One-dimensional modeling yields conservative estimates of distributions of groundwater travel time only under very limited conditions. This study demonstrates that it is wrong to equate the shortest possible water-travel path with the fastest path from the repository to the water table. 20 refs., 234 figs., 10 tabs.

  10. Sensitivity of risk parameters to human errors for a PWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.; Hall, R.E.; Kerr, W.

    1980-01-01

    Sensitivities of the risk parameters, emergency safety system unavailabilities, accident sequence probabilities, release category probabilities and core melt probability were investigated for changes in the human error rates within the general methodological framework of the Reactor Safety Study for a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). Impact of individual human errors were assessed both in terms of their structural importance to core melt and reliability importance on core melt probability. The Human Error Sensitivity Assessment of a PWR (HESAP) computer code was written for the purpose of this study

  11. Sensitivity calculation of the coolant temperature regarding the thermohydraulic parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrade Lima, F.R. de; Silva, F.C. da; Thome Filho, Z.D.; Alvim, A.C.M.; Oliveira Barroso, A.C. de.

    1985-01-01

    It's studied the application of the Generalized Perturbation Theory (GPT) in the sensitivity calculation of thermalhydraulic problems, aiming at verifying the viability of the extension of the method. For this, the axial distribution, transient, of the coolant temperature in a PWR channel are considered. Perturbation expressions are developed using the GPT formalism, and a computer code (Tempera) is written, to calculate the channel temperature distribution and the associated importance function, as well as the effect of the thermalhydraulic parameters variations in the coolant temperature (sensitivity calculation). The results are compared with those from the direct calculation. (E.G.) [pt

  12. A fully multiple-criteria implementation of the Sobol‧ method for parameter sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosolem, Rafael; Gupta, Hoshin V.; Shuttleworth, W. James; Zeng, Xubin; de Gonçalves, Luis Gustavo Gonçalves

    2012-04-01

    We present a novel rank-based fully multiple-criteria implementation of the Sobol' variance-based sensitivity analysis approach that implements an objective strategy to evaluate parameter sensitivity when model evaluation involves several metrics of performance. The method is superior to single-criterion approaches while avoiding the subjectivity observed in "pseudo" multiple-criteria methods. Further, it contributes to our understanding of structural characteristics of a model and simplifies parameter estimation by identifying insensitive parameters that can be fixed to default values during model calibration studies. We illustrate the approach by applying it to the problem of identifying the most influential parameters in the Simple Biosphere 3 (SiB3) model using a network of flux towers in Brazil. We find 27-31 (out of 42) parameters to be influential, most (˜78%) of which are primarily associated with physiology, soil, and carbon properties, and that uncertainties in the physiological properties of the model contribute most to total model uncertainty in regard to energy and carbon fluxes. We also find that the second most important model component contributing to the total output uncertainty varies according to the flux analyzed; whereas morphological properties play an important role in sensible heat flux, soil properties are important for latent heat flux, and carbon properties (mainly associated with the soil respiration submodel) are important for carbon flux (as expected). These distinct sensitivities emphasize the need to account for the multioutput nature of land surface models during sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation. Applied to other similar models, our approach can help to establish which soil-plant-atmosphere processes matter most in land surface models of Amazonia and thereby aid in the design of field campaigns to characterize and measure the associated parameters. The approach can also be used with other sensitivity analysis

  13. Sensitivity analysis on parameters and processes affecting vapor intrusion risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Picone, S.; Valstar, J.R.; Gaans, van P.; Grotenhuis, J.T.C.; Rijnaarts, H.H.M.

    2012-01-01

    A one-dimensional numerical model was developed and used to identify the key processes controlling vapor intrusion risks by means of a sensitivity analysis. The model simulates the fate of a dissolved volatile organic compound present below the ventilated crawl space of a house. In contrast to the

  14. Sensitivity Analysis of Simulation Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    2009-01-01

    This contribution presents an overview of sensitivity analysis of simulation models, including the estimation of gradients. It covers classic designs and their corresponding (meta)models; namely, resolution-III designs including fractional-factorial two-level designs for first-order polynomial

  15. Reliability analysis of a sensitive and independent stabilometry parameter set.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagymáté, Gergely; Orlovits, Zsanett; Kiss, Rita M

    2018-01-01

    Recent studies have suggested reduced independent and sensitive parameter sets for stabilometry measurements based on correlation and variance analyses. However, the reliability of these recommended parameter sets has not been studied in the literature or not in every stance type used in stabilometry assessments, for example, single leg stances. The goal of this study is to evaluate the test-retest reliability of different time-based and frequency-based parameters that are calculated from the center of pressure (CoP) during bipedal and single leg stance for 30- and 60-second measurement intervals. Thirty healthy subjects performed repeated standing trials in a bipedal stance with eyes open and eyes closed conditions and in a single leg stance with eyes open for 60 seconds. A force distribution measuring plate was used to record the CoP. The reliability of the CoP parameters was characterized by using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), standard error of measurement (SEM), minimal detectable change (MDC), coefficient of variation (CV) and CV compliance rate (CVCR). Based on the ICC, SEM and MDC results, many parameters yielded fair to good reliability values, while the CoP path length yielded the highest reliability (smallest ICC > 0.67 (0.54-0.79), largest SEM% = 19.2%). Usually, frequency type parameters and extreme value parameters yielded poor reliability values. There were differences in the reliability of the maximum CoP velocity (better with 30 seconds) and mean power frequency (better with 60 seconds) parameters between the different sampling intervals.

  16. Sensitivity study of reduced models of the activated sludge process ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The problem of derivation and calculation of sensitivity functions for all parameters of the mass balance reduced model of the COST benchmark activated sludge plant is formulated and solved. The sensitivity functions, equations and augmented sensitivity state space models are derived for the cases of ASM1 and UCT ...

  17. Sensitivity of the amplitude of the single muscle fibre action potential to microscopic volume conduction parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alberts, B.A.; Rutten, Wim; Wallinga, W.; Boom, H.B.K.

    1988-01-01

    A microscopic model of volume conduction was applied to examine the sensitivity of the single muscle fibre action potential to variations in parameters of the source and of the volume conductor, such as conduction velocity, intracellular conductivity and intracellular volume fraction. The model

  18. Global Sensitivity Analysis as Good Modelling Practices tool for the identification of the most influential process parameters of the primary drying step during freeze-drying

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Bockstal, Pieter-Jan; Mortier, Séverine Thérèse F.C.; Corver, Jos

    2018-01-01

    Pharmaceutical batch freeze-drying is commonly used to improve the stability of biological therapeutics. The primary drying step is regulated by the dynamic settings of the adaptable process variables, shelf temperature Ts and chamber pressure Pc. Mechanistic modelling of the primary drying step...

  19. Sensitivity Assessment of Ozone Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shorter, Jeffrey A.; Rabitz, Herschel A.; Armstrong, Russell A.

    2000-01-24

    The activities under this contract effort were aimed at developing sensitivity analysis techniques and fully equivalent operational models (FEOMs) for applications in the DOE Atmospheric Chemistry Program (ACP). MRC developed a new model representation algorithm that uses a hierarchical, correlated function expansion containing a finite number of terms. A full expansion of this type is an exact representation of the original model and each of the expansion functions is explicitly calculated using the original model. After calculating the expansion functions, they are assembled into a fully equivalent operational model (FEOM) that can directly replace the original mode.

  20. Improved parameter estimation for hydrological models using weighted object functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stein, A.; Zaadnoordijk, W.J.

    1999-01-01

    This paper discusses the sensitivity of calibration of hydrological model parameters to different objective functions. Several functions are defined with weights depending upon the hydrological background. These are compared with an objective function based upon kriging. Calibration is applied to

  1. Sensitivity of Footbridge Vibrations to Stochastic Walking Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Lars; Frier, Christian

    2010-01-01

    it is stochastic as different pedestrians generate different dynamic forces. For serviceability checks of footbridge designs it would seem reasonable to consider modelling the stochastic nature of the main parameters describing the excitation, such as for instance the load amplitude and the step frequency...

  2. Sensitivity analysis approaches applied to systems biology models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zi, Z

    2011-11-01

    With the rising application of systems biology, sensitivity analysis methods have been widely applied to study the biological systems, including metabolic networks, signalling pathways and genetic circuits. Sensitivity analysis can provide valuable insights about how robust the biological responses are with respect to the changes of biological parameters and which model inputs are the key factors that affect the model outputs. In addition, sensitivity analysis is valuable for guiding experimental analysis, model reduction and parameter estimation. Local and global sensitivity analysis approaches are the two types of sensitivity analysis that are commonly applied in systems biology. Local sensitivity analysis is a classic method that studies the impact of small perturbations on the model outputs. On the other hand, global sensitivity analysis approaches have been applied to understand how the model outputs are affected by large variations of the model input parameters. In this review, the author introduces the basic concepts of sensitivity analysis approaches applied to systems biology models. Moreover, the author discusses the advantages and disadvantages of different sensitivity analysis methods, how to choose a proper sensitivity analysis approach, the available sensitivity analysis tools for systems biology models and the caveats in the interpretation of sensitivity analysis results.

  3. Sensitivity Study of Stochastic Walking Load Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Lars; Frier, Christian

    2010-01-01

    is to employ a stochastic load model accounting for mean values and standard deviations for the walking load parameters, and to use this as a basis for estimation of structural response. This, however, requires decisions to be made in terms of statistical istributions and their parameters, and the paper...... investigates whether statistical distributions of bridge response are sensitive to some of the decisions made by the engineer doing the analyses. For the paper a selected part of potential influences are examined and footbridge responses are extracted using Monte-Carlo simulations and focus is on estimating...

  4. Sensitivity Analysis of a Simplified Fire Dynamic Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Lars Schiøtt; Nielsen, Anker

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses a method for performing a sensitivity analysis of parameters used in a simplified fire model for temperature estimates in the upper smoke layer during a fire. The results from the sensitivity analysis can be used when individual parameters affecting fire safety are assessed...

  5. Sensitivity of lumbar spine loading to anatomical parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Putzer, Michael; Ehrlich, Ingo; Rasmussen, John

    2016-01-01

    Musculoskeletal simulations of lumbar spine loading rely on a geometrical representation of the anatomy. However, this data has an inherent inaccuracy. This study evaluates the in uence of dened geometrical parameters on lumbar spine loading utilizing ve parametrized musculoskeletal lumbar spine...... models for four different postures. The in uence of the dimensions of vertebral body, disc, posterior parts of the vertebrae as well as the curvature of the lumbar spine were studied. Additionally, simulations with combinations of selected parameters were conducted. Changes in L4/L5 resultant joint force...... were used as outcome variable. Variations of the vertebral body height, disc height, transverse process width and the curvature of the lumbar spine were the most in uential. The results indicated that measuring these parameters from X-rays would be most important to morph an existing musculoskeletal...

  6. An updated Quantitative Water Air Sediment Interaction (QWASI) model for evaluating chemical fate and input parameter sensitivities in aquatic systems: application to D5 (decamethylcyclopentasiloxane) and PCB-180 in two lakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackay, Donald; Hughes, Lauren; Powell, David E; Kim, Jaeshin

    2014-09-01

    The QWASI fugacity mass balance model has been widely used since 1983 for both scientific and regulatory purposes to estimate the concentrations of organic chemicals in water and sediment, given an assumed rate of chemical emission, advective inflow in water or deposition from the atmosphere. It has become apparent that an updated version is required, especially to incorporate improved methods of obtaining input parameters such as partition coefficients. Accordingly, the model has been revised and it is now available in spreadsheet format. Changes to the model are described and the new version is applied to two chemicals, D5 (decamethylcyclopentasiloxane) and PCB-180, in two lakes, Lake Pepin (MN, USA) and Lake Ontario, showing the model's capability of illustrating both the chemical to chemical differences and lake to lake differences. Since there are now increased regulatory demands for rigorous sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, these aspects are discussed and two approaches are illustrated. It is concluded that the new QWASI water quality model can be of value for both evaluative and simulation purposes, thus providing a tool for obtaining an improved understanding of chemical mass balances in lakes, as a contribution to the assessment of fate and exposure and as a step towards the assessment of risk. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  7. Using sensitivity derivatives for design and parameter estimation in an atmospheric plasma discharge simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lange, Kyle J.; Anderson, W. Kyle

    2010-01-01

    The problem of applying sensitivity analysis to a one-dimensional atmospheric radio frequency plasma discharge simulation is considered. A fluid simulation is used to model an atmospheric pressure radio frequency helium discharge with a small nitrogen impurity. Sensitivity derivatives are computed for the peak electron density with respect to physical inputs to the simulation. These derivatives are verified using several different methods to compute sensitivity derivatives. It is then demonstrated how sensitivity derivatives can be used within a design cycle to change these physical inputs so as to increase the peak electron density. It is also shown how sensitivity analysis can be used in conjunction with experimental data to obtain better estimates for rate and transport parameters. Finally, it is described how sensitivity analysis could be used to compute an upper bound on the uncertainty for results from a simulation.

  8. Wind-Ramp-Forecast Sensitivity to Closure Parameters in a Boundary-Layer Parametrization Scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahn, David E.; Takle, Eugene S.; Gallus, William A.

    2017-09-01

    Wind ramps are relatively large changes in wind speed over a period of a few hours and present a challenge for electric utilities to balance power generation and load. Failures of boundary-layer parametrization schemes to represent physical processes limit the ability of numerical models to forecast wind ramps, especially in a stable boundary layer. Herein, the eight "closure parameters" of a widely used boundary-layer parameterization scheme are subject to sensitivity tests for a set of wind-ramp cases. A marked sensitivity of forecast wind speed to closure-parameter values is observed primarily for three parameters that influence in the closure equations the depth of turbulent mixing, dissipation, and the transfer of kinetic energy from the mean to the turbulent flow. Reducing the value of these parameters independently by 25% or by 50% reduces the overall average in forecast wind-speed errors by at least 24% for the first two parameters and increases average forecast error by at least 63% for the third parameter. Doubling any of these three parameters increases average forecast error by at least 67%. Such forecast sensitivity to closure parameter values provides motivation to explore alternative values in the context of a stable boundary layer.

  9. Sensitivity Analysis of WEC Array Layout Parameters Effect on the Power Performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruiz, Pau Mercadé; Ferri, Francesco; Kofoed, Jens Peter

    2015-01-01

    This study assesses the effect that the array layout choice has on the power performance. To this end, a sensitivity analysis is carried out with six array layout parameters, as the simulation inputs, the array power performance (q-factor), as the simulation output, and a simulation model specially...

  10. Sensitivity Analysis of the Gap Heat Transfer Model in BISON.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swiler, Laura Painton; Schmidt, Rodney C.; Williamson, Richard (INL); Perez, Danielle (INL)

    2014-10-01

    This report summarizes the result of a NEAMS project focused on sensitivity analysis of the heat transfer model in the gap between the fuel rod and the cladding used in the BISON fuel performance code of Idaho National Laboratory. Using the gap heat transfer models in BISON, the sensitivity of the modeling parameters and the associated responses is investigated. The study results in a quantitative assessment of the role of various parameters in the analysis of gap heat transfer in nuclear fuel.

  11. Sensitivity calculations of integral parameters by a generalyzed perturbation theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santo, A.C.F. de.

    1981-12-01

    In this work, we first revise some concepts, concerning the neutron transport in nuclear systems. We derive the balance and importance equation. Then we discuss the neutron importance in subcritical, critical and supercritical systems. The adjoint flux is estabilished as the neutron importance for the fission process. The conventional perturbation theory is later presented. We developed a sistematic perturbative formulation in the first order variation in the distribution functions calculate the reactivity due to a system perturbation. We present in detail the flux difference and generalized functions methos. The above formulation is then extended for altered systems. We consider integral parameters of the type ratio of bilinear functionals (for which the reactivity is a particular case). We define sensitivity coeficients, for any integral parameter, corresponding to a especific system alterations. Possible aplication of the method are also discussed. In the last part of this work, we apply the perturbative formulation to the doppler reacitivity sensibility calculation, utilizing the generalized functions method. We describe in detail the compiler program written for this and some other possible aplications. (Author) [pt

  12. Sensitive analysis of a finite element model of orthogonal cutting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brocail, J.; Watremez, M.; Dubar, L.

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a two-dimensional finite element model of orthogonal cutting. The proposed model has been developed with Abaqus/explicit software. An Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) formulation is used to predict chip formation, temperature, chip-tool contact length, chip thickness, and cutting forces. This numerical model of orthogonal cutting will be validated by comparing these process variables to experimental and numerical results obtained by Filice et al. [1]. This model can be considered to be reliable enough to make qualitative analysis of entry parameters related to cutting process and frictional models. A sensitivity analysis is conducted on the main entry parameters (coefficients of the Johnson-Cook law, and contact parameters) with the finite element model. This analysis is performed with two levels for each factor. The sensitivity analysis realised with the numerical model on the entry parameters has allowed the identification of significant parameters and the margin identification of parameters.

  13. Evolution of Geometric Sensitivity Derivatives from Computer Aided Design Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, William T.; Lazzara, David; Haimes, Robert

    2010-01-01

    The generation of design parameter sensitivity derivatives is required for gradient-based optimization. Such sensitivity derivatives are elusive at best when working with geometry defined within the solid modeling context of Computer-Aided Design (CAD) systems. Solid modeling CAD systems are often proprietary and always complex, thereby necessitating ad hoc procedures to infer parameter sensitivity. A new perspective is presented that makes direct use of the hierarchical associativity of CAD features to trace their evolution and thereby track design parameter sensitivity. In contrast to ad hoc methods, this method provides a more concise procedure following the model design intent and determining the sensitivity of CAD geometry directly to its respective defining parameters.

  14. Parameters Identification and Sensitive Characteristics Analysis for Lithium-Ion Batteries of Electric Vehicles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun Zhang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper mainly investigates the sensitive characteristics of lithium-ion batteries so as to provide scientific basises for simplifying the design of the state estimator that adapt to various environments. Three lithium-ion batteries are chosen as the experimental samples. The samples were tested at various temperatures (−20 ∘ C, −10 ∘ C, 0 ∘ C , 10 ∘ C , 25 ∘ C and various current rates (0.5C, 1C, 1.5C using a battery test bench. A physical equivalent circuit model is developed to capture the dynamic characteristics of the batteries. The experimental results show that all battery parameters are time-varying and have different sensitivity to temperature, current rate and state of charge (SOC. The sensitivity of battery to temperature, current rate and SOC increases the difficulty in battery modeling because of the change of parameters. The further simulation experiments show that the model output has a higher sensitivity to the change of ohmic resistance than that of other parameters. Based on the experimental and simulation results obtained here, it is expected that the adaptive parameter state estimator design could be simplified in the near future.

  15. Parametric sensitivity analysis for techno-economic parameters in Indian power sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mallah, Subhash; Bansal, N.K.

    2011-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis is a technique that evaluates the model response to changes in input assumptions. Due to uncertain prices of primary fuels in the world market, Government regulations for sustainability and various other technical parameters there is a need to analyze the techno-economic parameters which play an important role in policy formulations. This paper examines the variations in technical as well as economic parameters that can mostly affect the energy policy of India. MARKAL energy simulation model has been used to analyze the uncertainty in all techno-economic parameters. Various ranges of input parameters are adopted from previous studies. The results show that at lower discount rate coal is the least preferred technology and correspondingly carbon emission reduction. With increased gas and nuclear fuel prices they disappear from the allocations of energy mix.

  16. Behavior of sensitivities in the one-dimensional advection-dispersion equation: Implications for parameter estimation and sampling design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knopman, Debra S.; Voss, Clifford I.

    1987-01-01

    The spatial and temporal variability of sensitivities has a significant impact on parameter estimation and sampling design for studies of solute transport in porous media. Physical insight into the behavior of sensitivities is offered through an analysis of analytically derived sensitivities for the one-dimensional form of the advection-dispersion equation. When parameters are estimated in regression models of one-dimensional transport, the spatial and temporal variability in sensitivities influences variance and covariance of parameter estimates. Several principles account for the observed influence of sensitivities on parameter uncertainty. (1) Information about a physical parameter may be most accurately gained at points in space and time with a high sensitivity to the parameter. (2) As the distance of observation points from the upstream boundary increases, maximum sensitivity to velocity during passage of the solute front increases and the consequent estimate of velocity tends to have lower variance. (3) The frequency of sampling must be “in phase” with the S shape of the dispersion sensitivity curve to yield the most information on dispersion. (4) The sensitivity to the dispersion coefficient is usually at least an order of magnitude less than the sensitivity to velocity. (5) The assumed probability distribution of random error in observations of solute concentration determines the form of the sensitivities. (6) If variance in random error in observations is large, trends in sensitivities of observation points may be obscured by noise and thus have limited value in predicting variance in parameter estimates among designs. (7) Designs that minimize the variance of one parameter may not necessarily minimize the variance of other parameters. (8) The time and space interval over which an observation point is sensitive to a given parameter depends on the actual values of the parameters in the underlying physical system.

  17. Sensitivity Analyses for Cross-Coupled Parameters in Automotive Powertrain Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pongpun Othaganont

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available When vehicle manufacturers are developing new hybrid and electric vehicles, modeling and simulation are frequently used to predict the performance of the new vehicles from an early stage in the product lifecycle. Typically, models are used to predict the range, performance and energy consumption of their future planned production vehicle; they also allow the designer to optimize a vehicle’s configuration. Another use for the models is in performing sensitivity analysis, which helps us understand which parameters have the most influence on model predictions and real-world behaviors. There are various techniques for sensitivity analysis, some are numerical, but the greatest insights are obtained analytically with sensitivity defined in terms of partial derivatives. Existing methods in the literature give us a useful, quantified measure of parameter sensitivity, a first-order effect, but they do not consider second-order effects. Second-order effects could give us additional insights: for example, a first order analysis might tell us that a limiting factor is the efficiency of the vehicle’s prime-mover; our new second order analysis will tell us how quickly the efficiency of the powertrain will become of greater significance. In this paper, we develop a method based on formal optimization mathematics for rapid second-order sensitivity analyses and illustrate these through a case study on a C-segment electric vehicle.

  18. Quantifying uncertainty and sensitivity in sea ice models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Hunke, Elizabeth Clare [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Urban, Nathan Mark [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-07-15

    The Los Alamos Sea Ice model has a number of input parameters for which accurate values are not always well established. We conduct a variance-based sensitivity analysis of hemispheric sea ice properties to 39 input parameters. The method accounts for non-linear and non-additive effects in the model.

  19. Selection of body sway parameters according to their sensitivity and repeatability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nejc Sarabon

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available For the precise evaluation of body balance, static type of tests performed on a force plate are the most commonly used ones. In these tests, body sway characteristics are analyzed based on the model of inverted pendulum and looking at the center of pressure (COP movement in time. Human body engages different strategies to compensate for balance perturbations. For this reason, there is a need to identify parameters which are sensitive to specific balance changes and which enable us to identify balance sub-components. The aim of our study was to investigate intra-visit repeatability and sensibility of the 40 different body sway parameters. Twenty-nine subjects participated in the study. They performed three different balancing tasks of different levels of difficulty, three repetitions each. The hip-width parallel stance and the single leg stance, both with open eyes, were used as ways to compare different balance intensities due to biomechanical changes. Additionally, deprivation of vision was used in the third balance task to study sensitivity to sensory system changes. As shown by intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC, repeatability of cumulative parameters such as COP, maximal amplitude and frequency showed excellent repeatability (ICC>0,85. Other parameters describing sub-dynamics through single repetition proved to have unsatisfying repeatability. Parameters most sensitive to increased intensity of balancing tasks were common COP, COP in medio-lateral and in antero-posterior direction, and maximal amplitues in the same directions. Frequency of oscilations has proved to be sensitive only to deprivation of vision. As shown in our study, cumulative parameters describing the path which the center of pressure makes proved to be the most repeatable and sensitive to detect different increases of balancing tasks enabling future use in balance studies and in clinical practice.

  20. Adjoint sensitivity of global cloud droplet number to aerosol and dynamical parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. A. Karydis

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available We present the development of the adjoint of a comprehensive cloud droplet formation parameterization for use in aerosol-cloud-climate interaction studies. The adjoint efficiently and accurately calculates the sensitivity of cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC to all parameterization inputs (e.g., updraft velocity, water uptake coefficient, aerosol number and hygroscopicity with a single execution. The adjoint is then integrated within three dimensional (3-D aerosol modeling frameworks to quantify the sensitivity of CDNC formation globally to each parameter. Sensitivities are computed for year-long executions of the NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI Chemical Transport Model (CTM, using wind fields computed with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS Global Circulation Model (GCM II', and the GEOS-Chem CTM, driven by meteorological input from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS of the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO. We find that over polluted (pristine areas, CDNC is more sensitive to updraft velocity and uptake coefficient (aerosol number and hygroscopicity. Over the oceans of the Northern Hemisphere, addition of anthropogenic or biomass burning aerosol is predicted to increase CDNC in contrast to coarse-mode sea salt which tends to decrease CDNC. Over the Southern Oceans, CDNC is most sensitive to sea salt, which is the main aerosol component of the region. Globally, CDNC is predicted to be less sensitive to changes in the hygroscopicity of the aerosols than in their concentration with the exception of dust where CDNC is very sensitive to particle hydrophilicity over arid areas. Regionally, the sensitivities differ considerably between the two frameworks and quantitatively reveal why the models differ considerably in their indirect forcing estimates.

  1. Inferring Drosophila gap gene regulatory network: a parameter sensitivity and perturbation analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaandorp Jaap A

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Inverse modelling of gene regulatory networks (GRNs capable of simulating continuous spatio-temporal biological processes requires accurate data and a good description of the system. If quantitative relations between genes cannot be extracted from direct measurements, an efficient method to estimate the unknown parameters is mandatory. A model that has been proposed to simulate spatio-temporal gene expression patterns is the connectionist model. This method describes the quantitative dynamics of a regulatory network in space. The model parameters are estimated by means of model-fitting algorithms. The gene interactions are identified without making any prior assumptions concerning the network connectivity. As a result, the inverse modelling might lead to multiple circuits showing the same quantitative behaviour and it is not possible to identify one optimal circuit. Consequently, it is important to address the quality of the circuits in terms of model robustness. Results Here we investigate the sensitivity and robustness of circuits obtained from reverse engineering a model capable of simulating measured gene expression patterns. As a case study we use the early gap gene segmentation mechanism in Drosophila melanogaster. We consider the limitations of the connectionist model used to describe GRN Inferred from spatio-temporal gene expression. We address the problem of circuit discrimination, where the selection criterion within the optimization technique is based of the least square minimization on the error between data and simulated results. Conclusion Parameter sensitivity analysis allows one to discriminate between circuits having significant parameter and qualitative differences but exhibiting the same quantitative pattern. Furthermore, we show that using a stochastic model derived from a deterministic solution, one can introduce fluctuations within the model to analyze the circuits' robustness. Ultimately, we show that

  2. Inferring Drosophila gap gene regulatory network: a parameter sensitivity and perturbation analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fomekong-Nanfack, Yves; Postma, Marten; Kaandorp, Jaap A

    2009-09-21

    Inverse modelling of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) capable of simulating continuous spatio-temporal biological processes requires accurate data and a good description of the system. If quantitative relations between genes cannot be extracted from direct measurements, an efficient method to estimate the unknown parameters is mandatory. A model that has been proposed to simulate spatio-temporal gene expression patterns is the connectionist model. This method describes the quantitative dynamics of a regulatory network in space. The model parameters are estimated by means of model-fitting algorithms. The gene interactions are identified without making any prior assumptions concerning the network connectivity. As a result, the inverse modelling might lead to multiple circuits showing the same quantitative behaviour and it is not possible to identify one optimal circuit. Consequently, it is important to address the quality of the circuits in terms of model robustness. Here we investigate the sensitivity and robustness of circuits obtained from reverse engineering a model capable of simulating measured gene expression patterns. As a case study we use the early gap gene segmentation mechanism in Drosophila melanogaster. We consider the limitations of the connectionist model used to describe GRN Inferred from spatio-temporal gene expression. We address the problem of circuit discrimination, where the selection criterion within the optimization technique is based of the least square minimization on the error between data and simulated results. Parameter sensitivity analysis allows one to discriminate between circuits having significant parameter and qualitative differences but exhibiting the same quantitative pattern. Furthermore, we show that using a stochastic model derived from a deterministic solution, one can introduce fluctuations within the model to analyze the circuits' robustness. Ultimately, we show that there is a close relation between circuit sensitivity and

  3. Sensitivity Analysis and Identification of Parameters to the Van Genuchten Equation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangzhou Chen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Van Genuchten equation is the soil water characteristic curve equation used commonly, and identifying (estimating accurately its parameters plays an important role in the study on the movement of soil water. Selecting the desorption and absorption experimental data of silt loam from a northwest region in China as an instance, Monte-Carlo method was firstly applied to analyze sensitivity of the parameters and uncertainty of model so as to get the key parameters and posteriori parameter distribution to guide subsequent parameter identification. Then, the optimization model of the parameters was set up, and a new type of intelligent algorithm-difference search algorithm was employed to identify them. In order to overcome the fault that the base difference search algorithm needed more iterations and to further enhance the optimization performance, a hybrid algorithm, which coupled the difference search algorithm with simplex method, was employed to identification of the parameters. By comparison with other optimization algorithms, the results show that the difference search algorithm has the following characteristics: good optimization performance, the simple principle, easy implement, short program code, and less control parameters required to run the algorithm. In addition, the proposed hybrid algorithm outperforms the basic difference search algorithm on the comprehensive performance of algorithm.

  4. The Sensitivity of Evapotranspiration Models to Errors in Model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Three levels of sensitivity, herein termed sensitivity, ratings, were established, namely: Highly Sensitive (Rating:1); Moderately sensitive' (Rating:2); and 'not too sensitive'(Rating: 3). The ratings were based on the amount of error in the measured parameter to introduce + 10% relative error in the predicted Et. The level of ...

  5. Sensitivities in global scale modeling of isoprene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. von Kuhlmann

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available A sensitivity study of the treatment of isoprene and related parameters in 3D atmospheric models was conducted using the global model of tropospheric chemistry MATCH-MPIC. A total of twelve sensitivity scenarios which can be grouped into four thematic categories were performed. These four categories consist of simulations with different chemical mechanisms, different assumptions concerning the deposition characteristics of intermediate products, assumptions concerning the nitrates from the oxidation of isoprene and variations of the source strengths. The largest differences in ozone compared to the reference simulation occured when a different isoprene oxidation scheme was used (up to 30-60% or about 10 nmol/mol. The largest differences in the abundance of peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN were found when the isoprene emission strength was reduced by 50% and in tests with increased or decreased efficiency of the deposition of intermediates. The deposition assumptions were also found to have a significant effect on the upper tropospheric HOx production. Different implicit assumptions about the loss of intermediate products were identified as a major reason for the deviations among the tested isoprene oxidation schemes. The total tropospheric burden of O3 calculated in the sensitivity runs is increased compared to the background methane chemistry by 26±9  Tg( O3 from 273 to an average from the sensitivity runs of 299 Tg(O3. % revised Thus, there is a spread of ± 35% of the overall effect of isoprene in the model among the tested scenarios. This range of uncertainty and the much larger local deviations found in the test runs suggest that the treatment of isoprene in global models can only be seen as a first order estimate at present, and points towards specific processes in need of focused future work.

  6. A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models

    KAUST Repository

    Boas, Sonja E. M.

    2015-11-21

    Background Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such ‘black-box’ models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. Results To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. Conclusions We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all ‘black-box’ models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.

  7. A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boas, Sonja E M; Navarro Jimenez, Maria I; Merks, Roeland M H; Blom, Joke G

    2015-11-21

    Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such 'black-box' models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all 'black-box' models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.

  8. On parameter estimation in deformable models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fisker, Rune; Carstensen, Jens Michael

    1998-01-01

    Deformable templates have been intensively studied in image analysis through the last decade, but despite its significance the estimation of model parameters has received little attention. We present a method for supervised and unsupervised model parameter estimation using a general Bayesian form...

  9. Sensitivity study of reduced models of the activated sludge process ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2009-08-07

    Aug 7, 2009 ... order to fit the reduced model behaviour to the real data for the process behaviour. Keywords: wastewater treatment, activated sludge process, reduced model, model parameters, sensitivity function, Matlab simulation. Introduction. The problem of effective and optimal control of wastewater treatment plants ...

  10. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the PATHWAY radionuclide transport model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otis, M.D.

    1983-01-01

    Procedures were developed for the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a dynamic model of radionuclide transport through human food chains. Uncertainty in model predictions was estimated by propagation of parameter uncertainties using a Monte Carlo simulation technique. Sensitivity of model predictions to individual parameters was investigated using the partial correlation coefficient of each parameter with model output. Random values produced for the uncertainty analysis were used in the correlation analysis for sensitivity. These procedures were applied to the PATHWAY model which predicts concentrations of radionuclides in foods grown in Nevada and Utah and exposed to fallout during the period of atmospheric nuclear weapons testing in Nevada. Concentrations and time-integrated concentrations of iodine-131, cesium-136, and cesium-137 in milk and other foods were investigated. 9 figs., 13 tabs

  11. Parameter-free Locality Sensitive Hashing for Spherical Range Reporting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahle, Thomas Dybdahl; Pagh, Rasmus; Aumüller, Martin

    2017-01-01

    solutions to near neighbor problems in high dimensions. While traditional LSH data structures have several parameters whose optimal values depend on the distance distribution from q to the points of S, our data structure is parameter-free, except for the space usage, which is configurable by the user...

  12. Sensitivity of probability-of-failure estimates with respect to probability of detection curve parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garza, J.; Millwater, H.

    2012-01-01

    A methodology has been developed and demonstrated that can be used to compute the sensitivity of the probability-of-failure (POF) with respect to the parameters of inspection processes that are simulated using probability of detection (POD) curves. The formulation is such that the probabilistic sensitivities can be obtained at negligible cost using sampling methods by reusing the samples used to compute the POF. As a result, the methodology can be implemented for negligible cost in a post-processing non-intrusive manner thereby facilitating implementation with existing or commercial codes. The formulation is generic and not limited to any specific random variables, fracture mechanics formulation, or any specific POD curve as long as the POD is modeled parametrically. Sensitivity estimates for the cases of different POD curves at multiple inspections, and the same POD curves at multiple inspections have been derived. Several numerical examples are presented and show excellent agreement with finite difference estimates with significant computational savings. - Highlights: ► Sensitivity of the probability-of-failure with respect to the probability-of-detection curve. ►The sensitivities are computed with negligible cost using Monte Carlo sampling. ► The change in the POF due to a change in the POD curve parameters can be easily estimated.

  13. Rapid Debris Analysis Project Task 3 Final Report - Sensitivity of Fallout to Source Parameters, Near-Detonation Environment Material Properties, Topography, and Meteorology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldstein, Peter [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2014-01-24

    This report describes the sensitivity of predicted nuclear fallout to a variety of model input parameters, including yield, height of burst, particle and activity size distribution parameters, wind speed, wind direction, topography, and precipitation. We investigate sensitivity over a wide but plausible range of model input parameters. In addition, we investigate a specific example with a relatively narrow range to illustrate the potential for evaluating uncertainties in predictions when there are more precise constraints on model parameters.

  14. 'PSA-SPN' - A Parameter Sensitivity Analysis Method Using Stochastic Petri Nets: Application to a Production Line System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Labadi, Karim; Saggadi, Samira; Amodeo, Lionel

    2009-01-01

    The dynamic behavior of a discrete event dynamic system can be significantly affected for some uncertain changes in its decision parameters. So, parameter sensitivity analysis would be a useful way in studying the effects of these changes on the system performance. In the past, the sensitivity analysis approaches are frequently based on simulation models. In recent years, formal methods based on stochastic process including Markov process are proposed in the literature. In this paper, we are interested in the parameter sensitivity analysis of discrete event dynamic systems by using stochastic Petri nets models as a tool for modelling and performance evaluation. A sensitivity analysis approach based on stochastic Petri nets, called PSA-SPN method, will be proposed with an application to a production line system.

  15. Parameter identification in the logistic STAR model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ekner, Line Elvstrøm; Nejstgaard, Emil

    We propose a new and simple parametrization of the so-called speed of transition parameter of the logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) model. The new parametrization highlights that a consequence of the well-known identification problem of the speed of transition parameter is that th......We propose a new and simple parametrization of the so-called speed of transition parameter of the logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) model. The new parametrization highlights that a consequence of the well-known identification problem of the speed of transition parameter...

  16. An analysis of sensitivity of CLIMEX parameters in mapping species potential distribution and the broad-scale changes observed with minor variations in parameters values: an investigation using open-field Solanum lycopersicum and Neoleucinodes elegantalis as an example

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, Ricardo Siqueira; Kumar, Lalit; Shabani, Farzin; Picanço, Marcelo Coutinho

    2018-04-01

    A sensitivity analysis can categorize levels of parameter influence on a model's output. Identifying parameters having the most influence facilitates establishing the best values for parameters of models, providing useful implications in species modelling of crops and associated insect pests. The aim of this study was to quantify the response of species models through a CLIMEX sensitivity analysis. Using open-field Solanum lycopersicum and Neoleucinodes elegantalis distribution records, and 17 fitting parameters, including growth and stress parameters, comparisons were made in model performance by altering one parameter value at a time, in comparison to the best-fit parameter values. Parameters that were found to have a greater effect on the model results are termed "sensitive". Through the use of two species, we show that even when the Ecoclimatic Index has a major change through upward or downward parameter value alterations, the effect on the species is dependent on the selection of suitability categories and regions of modelling. Two parameters were shown to have the greatest sensitivity, dependent on the suitability categories of each species in the study. Results enhance user understanding of which climatic factors had a greater impact on both species distributions in our model, in terms of suitability categories and areas, when parameter values were perturbed by higher or lower values, compared to the best-fit parameter values. Thus, the sensitivity analyses have the potential to provide additional information for end users, in terms of improving management, by identifying the climatic variables that are most sensitive.

  17. Parameter Estimation of Partial Differential Equation Models

    KAUST Repository

    Xun, Xiaolei

    2013-09-01

    Partial differential equation (PDE) models are commonly used to model complex dynamic systems in applied sciences such as biology and finance. The forms of these PDE models are usually proposed by experts based on their prior knowledge and understanding of the dynamic system. Parameters in PDE models often have interesting scientific interpretations, but their values are often unknown and need to be estimated from the measurements of the dynamic system in the presence of measurement errors. Most PDEs used in practice have no analytic solutions, and can only be solved with numerical methods. Currently, methods for estimating PDE parameters require repeatedly solving PDEs numerically under thousands of candidate parameter values, and thus the computational load is high. In this article, we propose two methods to estimate parameters in PDE models: a parameter cascading method and a Bayesian approach. In both methods, the underlying dynamic process modeled with the PDE model is represented via basis function expansion. For the parameter cascading method, we develop two nested levels of optimization to estimate the PDE parameters. For the Bayesian method, we develop a joint model for data and the PDE and develop a novel hierarchical model allowing us to employ Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to make posterior inference. Simulation studies show that the Bayesian method and parameter cascading method are comparable, and both outperform other available methods in terms of estimation accuracy. The two methods are demonstrated by estimating parameters in a PDE model from long-range infrared light detection and ranging data. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. © 2013 American Statistical Association.

  18. Application of lumped-parameter models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, M.

    2006-12-15

    This technical report concerns the lumped-parameter models for a suction caisson with a ratio between skirt length and foundation diameter equal to 1/2, embedded into an viscoelastic soil. The models are presented for three different values of the shear modulus of the subsoil. Subsequently, the assembly of the dynamic stiffness matrix for the foundation is considered, and the solution for obtaining the steady state response, when using lumped-parameter models is given. (au)

  19. Sensitivity-based research prioritization through stochastic characterization modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wender, Ben A.; Prado-Lopez, Valentina; Fantke, Peter

    2018-01-01

    to guide research efforts in data refinement and design of experiments for existing and emerging chemicals alike. This study presents a sensitivity-based approach for estimating toxicity characterization factors given high input data uncertainty and using the results to prioritize data collection according......Product developers using life cycle toxicity characterization models to understand the potential impacts of chemical emissions face serious challenges related to large data demands and high input data uncertainty. This motivates greater focus on model sensitivity toward input parameter variability...... to parameter influence on characterization factors (CFs). Proof of concept is illustrated with the UNEP-SETAC scientific consensus model USEtox....

  20. On the role of modeling parameters in IMRT plan optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krause, Michael; Scherrer, Alexander; Thieke, Christian

    2008-01-01

    The formulation of optimization problems in intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) planning comprises the choice of various values such as function-specific parameters or constraint bounds. In current inverse planning programs that yield a single treatment plan for each optimization, it is often unclear how strongly these modeling parameters affect the resulting plan. This work investigates the mathematical concepts of elasticity and sensitivity to deal with this problem. An artificial planning case with a horse-shoe formed target with different opening angles surrounding a circular risk structure is studied. As evaluation functions the generalized equivalent uniform dose (EUD) and the average underdosage below and average overdosage beyond certain dose thresholds are used. A single IMRT plan is calculated for an exemplary parameter configuration. The elasticity and sensitivity of each parameter are then calculated without re-optimization, and the results are numerically verified. The results show the following. (1) elasticity can quantify the influence of a modeling parameter on the optimization result in terms of how strongly the objective function value varies under modifications of the parameter value. It also can describe how strongly the geometry of the involved planning structures affects the optimization result. (2) Based on the current parameter settings and corresponding treatment plan, sensitivity analysis can predict the optimization result for modified parameter values without re-optimization, and it can estimate the value intervals in which such predictions are valid. In conclusion, elasticity and sensitivity can provide helpful tools in inverse IMRT planning to identify the most critical parameters of an individual planning problem and to modify their values in an appropriate way

  1. A Sensitivity Study of the Navier-Stokes- α Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breckling, Sean; Neda, Monika

    2017-11-01

    We present a sensitivity study of the of the Navier Stokes- α model (NS α) with respect to perturbations of the differential filter length α. Parameter-sensitivity is evaluated using the sensitivity equations method. Once formulated, the sensitivity equations are discretized and computed alongside the NS α model using the same finite elements in space, and Crank-Nicolson in time. We provide a complete stability analysis of the scheme, along with the sensitivity results of several benchmark problems in both 2D and 3D. We further demonstrate a practical technique to determine the reliability of the NS α model in problem-specific settings. Lastly, we investigate the sensitivity and reliability of important functionals of the velocity and pressure solutions.

  2. CHAMP: Changepoint Detection Using Approximate Model Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    form (with independent emissions or otherwise), in which parameter estimates are available via means such as maximum likelihood fit, MCMC , or sample ...counterparts, including the ability to generate a full posterior distribution over changepoint locations and offering a natural way to incorporate prior... sample consensus method. Our modifications also remove a significant restriction on model definition when detecting parameter changes within a single

  3. Sensitivity analysis of the effect of various key parameters on fission product concentration (mass number 120 to 126)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sola, A.

    1978-01-01

    An analytical sensitivity analysis has been made of the effect of various parameters on the evaluation of fission product concentration. Such parameters include cross sections, decay constants, branching ratios, fission yields, flux and time. The formulae are applied to isotopes of the Tin, Antimony and Tellurium series. The agreement between analytically obtained data and that derived from a computer evaluated model is good, suggesting that the analytical representation includes all the important parameters useful to the evaluation of the fission product concentrations

  4. Exploiting intrinsic fluctuations to identify model parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmer, Christoph; Sahle, Sven; Pahle, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    Parameterisation of kinetic models plays a central role in computational systems biology. Besides the lack of experimental data of high enough quality, some of the biggest challenges here are identification issues. Model parameters can be structurally non-identifiable because of functional relationships. Noise in measured data is usually considered to be a nuisance for parameter estimation. However, it turns out that intrinsic fluctuations in particle numbers can make parameters identifiable that were previously non-identifiable. The authors present a method to identify model parameters that are structurally non-identifiable in a deterministic framework. The method takes time course recordings of biochemical systems in steady state or transient state as input. Often a functional relationship between parameters presents itself by a one-dimensional manifold in parameter space containing parameter sets of optimal goodness. Although the system's behaviour cannot be distinguished on this manifold in a deterministic framework it might be distinguishable in a stochastic modelling framework. Their method exploits this by using an objective function that includes a measure for fluctuations in particle numbers. They show on three example models, immigration-death, gene expression and Epo-EpoReceptor interaction, that this resolves the non-identifiability even in the case of measurement noise with known amplitude. The method is applied to partially observed recordings of biochemical systems with measurement noise. It is simple to implement and it is usually very fast to compute. This optimisation can be realised in a classical or Bayesian fashion.

  5. Setting Parameters for Biological Models With ANIMO

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schivo, Stefano; Scholma, Jetse; Karperien, Hermanus Bernardus Johannes; Post, Janine Nicole; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Langerak, Romanus; André, Étienne; Frehse, Goran

    2014-01-01

    ANIMO (Analysis of Networks with Interactive MOdeling) is a software for modeling biological networks, such as e.g. signaling, metabolic or gene networks. An ANIMO model is essentially the sum of a network topology and a number of interaction parameters. The topology describes the interactions

  6. Sensitivity of Asteroid Impact Risk to Uncertainty in Asteroid Properties and Entry Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Lorien; Mathias, Donovan; Dotson, Jessie L.; NASA Asteroid Threat Assessment Project

    2017-10-01

    A central challenge in assessing the threat posed by asteroids striking Earth is the large amount of uncertainty inherent throughout all aspects of the problem. Many asteroid properties are not well characterized and can range widely from strong, dense, monolithic irons to loosely bound, highly porous rubble piles. Even for an object of known properties, the specific entry velocity, angle, and impact location can swing the potential consequence from no damage to causing millions of casualties. Due to the extreme rarity of large asteroid strikes, there are also large uncertainties in how different types of asteroids will interact with the atmosphere during entry, how readily they may break up or ablate, and how much surface damage will be caused by the resulting airbursts or impacts.In this work, we use our Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) model to investigate the sensitivity of asteroid impact damage to uncertainties in key asteroid properties, entry parameters, or modeling assumptions. The PAIR model combines physics-based analytic models of asteroid entry and damage in a probabilistic Monte Carlo framework to assess the risk posed by a wide range of potential impacts. The model samples from uncertainty distributions of asteroid properties and entry parameters to generate millions of specific impact cases, and models the atmospheric entry and damage for each case, including blast overpressure, thermal radiation, tsunami inundation, and global effects. To assess the risk sensitivity, we alternately fix and vary the different input parameters and compare the effect on the resulting range of damage produced. The goal of these studies is to help guide future efforts in asteroid characterization and model refinement by determining which properties most significantly affect the potential risk.

  7. Parameters and error of a theoretical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeller, P.; Nix, J.R.; Swiatecki, W.

    1986-09-01

    We propose a definition for the error of a theoretical model of the type whose parameters are determined from adjustment to experimental data. By applying a standard statistical method, the maximum-likelihoodlmethod, we derive expressions for both the parameters of the theoretical model and its error. We investigate the derived equations by solving them for simulated experimental and theoretical quantities generated by use of random number generators. 2 refs., 4 tabs

  8. PAPIRUS, a parallel computing framework for sensitivity analysis, uncertainty propagation, and estimation of parameter distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heo, Jaeseok; Kim, Kyung Doo

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We developed an interface between an engineering simulation code and statistical analysis software. • Multiple packages of the sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, and parameter estimation algorithms are implemented in the framework. • Parallel computing algorithms are also implemented in the framework to solve multiple computational problems simultaneously. - Abstract: This paper introduces a statistical data analysis toolkit, PAPIRUS, designed to perform the model calibration, uncertainty propagation, Chi-square linearity test, and sensitivity analysis for both linear and nonlinear problems. The PAPIRUS was developed by implementing multiple packages of methodologies, and building an interface between an engineering simulation code and the statistical analysis algorithms. A parallel computing framework is implemented in the PAPIRUS with multiple computing resources and proper communications between the server and the clients of each processor. It was shown that even though a large amount of data is considered for the engineering calculation, the distributions of the model parameters and the calculation results can be quantified accurately with significant reductions in computational effort. A general description about the PAPIRUS with a graphical user interface is presented in Section 2. Sections 2.1–2.5 present the methodologies of data assimilation, uncertainty propagation, Chi-square linearity test, and sensitivity analysis implemented in the toolkit with some results obtained by each module of the software. Parallel computing algorithms adopted in the framework to solve multiple computational problems simultaneously are also summarized in the paper

  9. Volcano deformation source parameters estimated from InSAR: Sensitivities to uncertainties in seismic tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masterlark, Timothy; Donovan, Theodore; Feigl, Kurt L.; Haney, Matt; Thurber, Clifford H.; Tung, Sui

    2016-01-01

    The eruption cycle of a volcano is controlled in part by the upward migration of magma. The characteristics of the magma flux produce a deformation signature at the Earth's surface. Inverse analyses use geodetic data to estimate strategic controlling parameters that describe the position and pressurization of a magma chamber at depth. The specific distribution of material properties controls how observed surface deformation translates to source parameter estimates. Seismic tomography models describe the spatial distributions of material properties that are necessary for accurate models of volcano deformation. This study investigates how uncertainties in seismic tomography models propagate into variations in the estimates of volcano deformation source parameters inverted from geodetic data. We conduct finite element model-based nonlinear inverse analyses of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data for Okmok volcano, Alaska, as an example. We then analyze the estimated parameters and their uncertainties to characterize the magma chamber. Analyses are performed separately for models simulating a pressurized chamber embedded in a homogeneous domain as well as for a domain having a heterogeneous distribution of material properties according to seismic tomography. The estimated depth of the source is sensitive to the distribution of material properties. The estimated depths for the homogeneous and heterogeneous domains are 2666 ± 42 and 3527 ± 56 m below mean sea level, respectively (99% confidence). A Monte Carlo analysis indicates that uncertainties of the seismic tomography cannot account for this discrepancy at the 99% confidence level. Accounting for the spatial distribution of elastic properties according to seismic tomography significantly improves the fit of the deformation model predictions and significantly influences estimates for parameters that describe the location of a pressurized magma chamber.

  10. Application of lumped-parameter models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, Morten

    This technical report concerns the lumped-parameter models for a suction caisson with a ratio between skirt length and foundation diameter equal to 1/2, embedded into an viscoelastic soil. The models are presented for three different values of the shear modulus of the subsoil (section 1.1). Subse......This technical report concerns the lumped-parameter models for a suction caisson with a ratio between skirt length and foundation diameter equal to 1/2, embedded into an viscoelastic soil. The models are presented for three different values of the shear modulus of the subsoil (section 1...

  11. Multi-Response Parameter Interval Sensitivity and Optimization for the Composite Tape Winding Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Tao; Kang, Chao; Zhao, Pan

    2018-01-01

    The composite tape winding process, which utilizes a tape winding machine and prepreg tapes, provides a promising way to improve the quality of composite products. Nevertheless, the process parameters of composite tape winding have crucial effects on the tensile strength and void content, which are closely related to the performances of the winding products. In this article, two different object values of winding products, including mechanical performance (tensile strength) and a physical property (void content), were respectively calculated. Thereafter, the paper presents an integrated methodology by combining multi-parameter relative sensitivity analysis and single-parameter sensitivity analysis to obtain the optimal intervals of the composite tape winding process. First, the global multi-parameter sensitivity analysis method was applied to investigate the sensitivity of each parameter in the tape winding processing. Then, the local single-parameter sensitivity analysis method was employed to calculate the sensitivity of a single parameter within the corresponding range. Finally, the stability and instability ranges of each parameter were distinguished. Meanwhile, the authors optimized the process parameter ranges and provided comprehensive optimized intervals of the winding parameters. The verification test validated that the optimized intervals of the process parameters were reliable and stable for winding products manufacturing. PMID:29385048

  12. Setting Parameters for Biological Models With ANIMO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Schivo

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available ANIMO (Analysis of Networks with Interactive MOdeling is a software for modeling biological networks, such as e.g. signaling, metabolic or gene networks. An ANIMO model is essentially the sum of a network topology and a number of interaction parameters. The topology describes the interactions between biological entities in form of a graph, while the parameters determine the speed of occurrence of such interactions. When a mismatch is observed between the behavior of an ANIMO model and experimental data, we want to update the model so that it explains the new data. In general, the topology of a model can be expanded with new (known or hypothetical nodes, and enables it to match experimental data. However, the unrestrained addition of new parts to a model causes two problems: models can become too complex too fast, to the point of being intractable, and too many parts marked as "hypothetical" or "not known" make a model unrealistic. Even if changing the topology is normally the easier task, these problems push us to try a better parameter fit as a first step, and resort to modifying the model topology only as a last resource. In this paper we show the support added in ANIMO to ease the task of expanding the knowledge on biological networks, concentrating in particular on the parameter settings.

  13. Ambient pressure sensitivity of microbubbles investigated through a parameter study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Klaus Scheldrup; Jensen, Jørgen Arendt

    2009-01-01

    . The behavior of two microbubbles corresponding to two different contrast agents was investigated as a function of driving pulse and ambient overpressure, pov. Simulations of Levovist using a rectangular driving pulse show an almost linear reduction in the subharmonic component as pov is increased. For a 20....... 1999, who found a linear reduction of 9.6 dB. Further simulations of Levovist show that also the shape and the acoustic pressure of the driving pulse are very important factors. The best pressure sensitivity of Levovist was found to be 0.88 dB/kPa. For Sonazoid, a sensitivity of 1.14 dB/kPa has been...... cycles driving pulse, a reduction of 4.6 dB is observed when changing pov from 0 to 25 kPa. Increasing the pulse duration makes the reduction even more clear. For a pulse with 64 cycles, the reduction is 9.9 dB. This simulation is in good correspondence with measurement results presented by Shi et al...

  14. Parameter Estimation for Thurstone Choice Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vojnovic, Milan [London School of Economics (United Kingdom); Yun, Seyoung [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-04-24

    We consider the estimation accuracy of individual strength parameters of a Thurstone choice model when each input observation consists of a choice of one item from a set of two or more items (so called top-1 lists). This model accommodates the well-known choice models such as the Luce choice model for comparison sets of two or more items and the Bradley-Terry model for pair comparisons. We provide a tight characterization of the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator. We also provide similar characterizations for parameter estimators defined by a rank-breaking method, which amounts to deducing one or more pair comparisons from a comparison of two or more items, assuming independence of these pair comparisons, and maximizing a likelihood function derived under these assumptions. We also consider a related binary classification problem where each individual parameter takes value from a set of two possible values and the goal is to correctly classify all items within a prescribed classification error. The results of this paper shed light on how the parameter estimation accuracy depends on given Thurstone choice model and the structure of comparison sets. In particular, we found that for unbiased input comparison sets of a given cardinality, when in expectation each comparison set of given cardinality occurs the same number of times, for a broad class of Thurstone choice models, the mean squared error decreases with the cardinality of comparison sets, but only marginally according to a diminishing returns relation. On the other hand, we found that there exist Thurstone choice models for which the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator can decrease much faster with the cardinality of comparison sets. We report empirical evaluation of some claims and key parameters revealed by theory using both synthetic and real-world input data from some popular sport competitions and online labor platforms.

  15. Sensitivities of surface wave velocities to the medium parameters in a radially anisotropic spherical Earth and inversion strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sankar N. Bhattacharya

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Sensitivity kernels or partial derivatives of phase velocity (c and group velocity (U with respect to medium parameters are useful to interpret a given set of observed surface wave velocity data. In addition to phase velocities, group velocities are also being observed to find the radial anisotropy of the crust and mantle. However, sensitivities of group velocity for a radially anisotropic Earth have rarely been studied. Here we show sensitivities of group velocity along with those of phase velocity to the medium parameters VSV, VSH , VPV, VPH , h and density in a radially anisotropic spherical Earth. The peak sensitivities for U are generally twice of those for c; thus U is more efficient than c to explore anisotropic nature of the medium. Love waves mainly depends on VSH while Rayleigh waves is nearly independent of VSH . The sensitivities show that there are trade-offs among these parameters during inversion and there is a need to reduce the number of parameters to be evaluated independently. It is suggested to use a nonlinear inversion jointly for Rayleigh and Love waves; in such a nonlinear inversion best solutions are obtained among the model parameters within prescribed limits for each parameter. We first choose VSH, VSV and VPH within their corresponding limits; VPV and h can be evaluated from empirical relations among the parameters. The density has small effect on surface wave velocities and it can be considered from other studies or from empirical relation of density to average P-wave velocity.

  16. Modelling and parameter estimation of dynamic systems

    CERN Document Server

    Raol, JR; Singh, J

    2004-01-01

    Parameter estimation is the process of using observations from a system to develop mathematical models that adequately represent the system dynamics. The assumed model consists of a finite set of parameters, the values of which are calculated using estimation techniques. Most of the techniques that exist are based on least-square minimization of error between the model response and actual system response. However, with the proliferation of high speed digital computers, elegant and innovative techniques like filter error method, H-infinity and Artificial Neural Networks are finding more and mor

  17. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, C W [ed.

    1984-01-01

    This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base. (ACR)

  18. Consistent Stochastic Modelling of Meteocean Design Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Sterndorff, M. J.

    2000-01-01

    Consistent stochastic models of metocean design parameters and their directional dependencies are essential for reliability assessment of offshore structures. In this paper a stochastic model for the annual maximum values of the significant wave height, and the associated wind velocity, current...

  19. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, C.W.

    1984-01-01

    This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base

  20. Sensitivity Analysis of a process based erosion model using FAST

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabelmann, Petra; Wienhöfer, Jan; Zehe, Erwin

    2015-04-01

    Erosion, sediment redistribution and related particulate transport are severe problems in agro-ecosystems with highly erodible loess soils. They are controlled by various factors, for example rainfall intensity, topography, initial wetness conditions, spatial patterns of soil hydraulic parameters, land use and tillage practice. The interplay between those factors is not well understood. A number of models were developed to indicate those complex interactions and to estimate the amount of sediment which will be removed, transported and accumulated. In order to make use of physical-based models to provide insight on the physical system under study it is necessary to understand the interactions of parameters and processes in the model domain. Sensitivity analyses give insight in the relative importance of model parameters, which in addition is useful for judging where the greatest efforts have to be spent in acquiring or calibrating input parameters. The objective of this study was to determine the sensitivity of the erosion-related parameters in the CATFLOW model. We analysed simulations from the Weiherbach catchment, where good matches of observed hydrological response and erosion dynamics had been obtained in earlier studies. The Weiherbach catchment is located in an intensively cultivated loess region in southwest Germany and due to the hilly landscape and the highly erodible loess soils, erosion is a severe environmental problem. CATFLOW is a process-based hydrology and erosion model that can operate on catchment and hillslope scales. Soil water dynamics are described by the Richards equation including effective approaches for preferential flow. Evapotranspiration is simulated using an approach based on the Penman-Monteith equation. The model simulates overland flow using the diffusion wave equation. Soil detachment is related to the attacking forces of rainfall and overland flow, and the erosion resistance of the soil. Sediment transport capacity and sediment

  1. Source term modelling parameters for Project-90

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, W.; Smith, G.; Worgan, K.; Hodgkinson, D.; Andersson, K.

    1992-04-01

    This document summarises the input parameters for the source term modelling within Project-90. In the first place, the parameters relate to the CALIBRE near-field code which was developed for the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate's (SKI) Project-90 reference repository safety assessment exercise. An attempt has been made to give best estimate values and, where appropriate, a range which is related to variations around base cases. It should be noted that the data sets contain amendments to those considered by KBS-3. In particular, a completely new set of inventory data has been incorporated. The information given here does not constitute a complete set of parameter values for all parts of the CALIBRE code. Rather, it gives the key parameter values which are used in the constituent models within CALIBRE and the associated studies. For example, the inventory data acts as an input to the calculation of the oxidant production rates, which influence the generation of a redox front. The same data is also an initial value data set for the radionuclide migration component of CALIBRE. Similarly, the geometrical parameters of the near-field are common to both sub-models. The principal common parameters are gathered here for ease of reference and avoidance of unnecessary duplication and transcription errors. (au)

  2. Parameters influencing deposit estimation when using water sensitive papers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emanuele Cerruto

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the study was to assess the possibility of using water sensitive papers (WSP to estimate the amount of deposit on the target when varying the spray characteristics. To identify the main quantities influencing the deposit, some simplifying hypotheses were applied to simulate WSP behaviour: log-normal distribution of the diameters of the drops and circular stains randomly placed on the images. A very large number (4704 of images of WSPs were produced by means of simulation. The images were obtained by simulating drops of different arithmetic mean diameter (40-300 μm, different coefficient of variation (0.1-1.5, and different percentage of covered surface (2-100%, not considering overlaps. These images were considered to be effective WSP images and then analysed using image processing software in order to measure the percentage of covered surface, the number of particles, and the area of each particle; the deposit was then calculated. These data were correlated with those used to produce the images, varying the spray characteristics. As far as the drop populations are concerned, a classification based on the volume median diameter only should be avoided, especially in case of high variability. This, in fact, results in classifying sprays with very low arithmetic mean diameter as extremely or ultra coarse. The WSP image analysis shows that the relation between simulated and computed percentage of covered surface is independent of the type of spray, whereas impact density and unitary deposit can be estimated from the computed percentage of covered surface only if the spray characteristics (arithmetic mean and coefficient of variation of the drop diameters are known. These data can be estimated by analysing the particles on the WSP images. The results of a validation test show good agreement between simulated and computed deposits, testified by a high (0.93 coefficient of determination.

  3. Material Parameter Sensitivity of Predicted Injury in the Lower Leg

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-01

    different directions, and over a shorter duration than forces in civilian car accidents ,1,6 making these injuries and their mechanisms unique to the military...and vascular network. It has been shown that for pa- tients that have sustained multiple injuries, those with foot and ankle injuries have a greater...Oshita F, Nagakute A. Recent advances in THUMS: development of individual internal organs, brain , small female and pedestrian model. In: Proceedings of

  4. Relative sensitivity of developmental and immune parameters in juvenile versus adult male rats after exposure to di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonk, Elisa C.M., E-mail: ilse.tonk@rivm.nl [Department of Toxicogenomics, Maastricht University, Maastricht (Netherlands); Laboratory for Health Protection Research, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven (Netherlands); Verhoef, Aart; Gremmer, Eric R. [Laboratory for Health Protection Research, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven (Netherlands); Loveren, Henk van [Department of Toxicogenomics, Maastricht University, Maastricht (Netherlands); Laboratory for Health Protection Research, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven (Netherlands); Piersma, Aldert H. [Laboratory for Health Protection Research, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven (Netherlands); Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, Veterinary Faculty, Utrecht University, Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2012-04-01

    The developing immune system displays a relatively high sensitivity as compared to both general toxicity parameters and to the adult immune system. In this study we have performed such comparisons using di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) as a model compound. DEHP is the most abundant phthalate in the environment and perinatal exposure to DEHP has been shown to disrupt male sexual differentiation. In addition, phthalate exposure has been associated with immune dysfunction as evidenced by effects on the expression of allergy. Male wistar rats were dosed with corn oil or DEHP by gavage from postnatal day (PND) 10–50 or PND 50–90 at doses between 1 and 1000 mg/kg/day. Androgen-dependent organ weights showed effects at lower dose levels in juvenile versus adult animals. Immune parameters affected included TDAR parameters in both age groups, NK activity in juvenile animals and TNF-α production by adherent splenocytes in adult animals. Immune parameters were affected at lower dose levels compared to developmental parameters. Overall, more immune parameters were affected in juvenile animals compared to adult animals and effects were observed at lower dose levels. The results of this study show a relatively higher sensitivity of juvenile versus adult rats. Furthermore, they illustrate the relative sensitivity of the developing immune system in juvenile animals as compared to general toxicity and developmental parameters. This study therefore provides further argumentation for performing dedicated developmental immune toxicity testing as a default in regulatory toxicology. -- Highlights: ► In this study we evaluate the relative sensitivities for DEHP induced effects. ► Results of this study demonstrate the age-dependency of DEHP toxicity. ► Functional immune parameters were more sensitive than structural immune parameters. ► Immune parameters were affected at lower dose levels than developmental parameters. ► Findings demonstrate the susceptibility of the

  5. Relative sensitivity of developmental and immune parameters in juvenile versus adult male rats after exposure to di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tonk, Elisa C.M.; Verhoef, Aart; Gremmer, Eric R.; Loveren, Henk van; Piersma, Aldert H.

    2012-01-01

    The developing immune system displays a relatively high sensitivity as compared to both general toxicity parameters and to the adult immune system. In this study we have performed such comparisons using di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) as a model compound. DEHP is the most abundant phthalate in the environment and perinatal exposure to DEHP has been shown to disrupt male sexual differentiation. In addition, phthalate exposure has been associated with immune dysfunction as evidenced by effects on the expression of allergy. Male wistar rats were dosed with corn oil or DEHP by gavage from postnatal day (PND) 10–50 or PND 50–90 at doses between 1 and 1000 mg/kg/day. Androgen-dependent organ weights showed effects at lower dose levels in juvenile versus adult animals. Immune parameters affected included TDAR parameters in both age groups, NK activity in juvenile animals and TNF-α production by adherent splenocytes in adult animals. Immune parameters were affected at lower dose levels compared to developmental parameters. Overall, more immune parameters were affected in juvenile animals compared to adult animals and effects were observed at lower dose levels. The results of this study show a relatively higher sensitivity of juvenile versus adult rats. Furthermore, they illustrate the relative sensitivity of the developing immune system in juvenile animals as compared to general toxicity and developmental parameters. This study therefore provides further argumentation for performing dedicated developmental immune toxicity testing as a default in regulatory toxicology. -- Highlights: ► In this study we evaluate the relative sensitivities for DEHP induced effects. ► Results of this study demonstrate the age-dependency of DEHP toxicity. ► Functional immune parameters were more sensitive than structural immune parameters. ► Immune parameters were affected at lower dose levels than developmental parameters. ► Findings demonstrate the susceptibility of the

  6. Battlescale Forecast Model Sensitivity Study

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sauter, Barbara

    2003-01-01

    .... Changes to the surface observations used in the Battlescale Forecast Model initialization led to no significant changes in the resulting forecast values of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, or wind direction...

  7. Model Driven Development of Data Sensitive Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Petur

    2014-01-01

    to the values of variables. This theses strives to improve model-driven development of such data-sensitive systems. This is done by addressing three research questions. In the first we combine state-based modeling and abstract interpretation, in order to ease modeling of data-sensitive systems, while allowing...... efficient model-checking and model-based testing. In the second we develop automatic abstraction learning used together with model learning, in order to allow fully automatic learning of data-sensitive systems to allow learning of larger systems. In the third we develop an approach for modeling and model-based...... detection and pushing error detection to earlier stages of development. The complexity of modeling and the size of systems which can be analyzed is severely limited when introducing data variables. The state space grows exponentially in the number of variable and the domain size of the variables...

  8. INFERENCE AND SENSITIVITY IN STOCHASTIC WIND POWER FORECAST MODELS.

    KAUST Repository

    Elkantassi, Soumaya

    2017-10-03

    Reliable forecasting of wind power generation is crucial to optimal control of costs in generation of electricity with respect to the electricity demand. Here, we propose and analyze stochastic wind power forecast models described by parametrized stochastic differential equations, which introduce appropriate fluctuations in numerical forecast outputs. We use an approximate maximum likelihood method to infer the model parameters taking into account the time correlated sets of data. Furthermore, we study the validity and sensitivity of the parameters for each model. We applied our models to Uruguayan wind power production as determined by historical data and corresponding numerical forecasts for the period of March 1 to May 31, 2016.

  9. Sensitivity of corneal biomechanical and optical behavior to material parameters using design of experiments method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Mengchen; Lerner, Amy L; Funkenbusch, Paul D; Richhariya, Ashutosh; Yoon, Geunyoung

    2018-02-01

    The optical performance of the human cornea under intraocular pressure (IOP) is the result of complex material properties and their interactions. The measurement of the numerous material parameters that define this material behavior may be key in the refinement of patient-specific models. The goal of this study was to investigate the relative contribution of these parameters to the biomechanical and optical responses of human cornea predicted by a widely accepted anisotropic hyperelastic finite element model, with regional variations in the alignment of fibers. Design of experiments methods were used to quantify the relative importance of material properties including matrix stiffness, fiber stiffness, fiber nonlinearity and fiber dispersion under physiological IOP. Our sensitivity results showed that corneal apical displacement was influenced nearly evenly by matrix stiffness, fiber stiffness and nonlinearity. However, the variations in corneal optical aberrations (refractive power and spherical aberration) were primarily dependent on the value of the matrix stiffness. The optical aberrations predicted by variations in this material parameter were sufficiently large to predict clinically important changes in retinal image quality. Therefore, well-characterized individual variations in matrix stiffness could be critical in cornea modeling in order to reliably predict optical behavior under different IOPs or after corneal surgery.

  10. Tsunami propagation modelling – a sensitivity study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Tkalich

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Indian Ocean (2004 Tsunami and following tragic consequences demonstrated lack of relevant experience and preparedness among involved coastal nations. After the event, scientific and forecasting circles of affected countries have started a capacity building to tackle similar problems in the future. Different approaches have been used for tsunami propagation, such as Boussinesq and Nonlinear Shallow Water Equations (NSWE. These approximations were obtained assuming different relevant importance of nonlinear, dispersion and spatial gradient variation phenomena and terms. The paper describes further development of original TUNAMI-N2 model to take into account additional phenomena: astronomic tide, sea bottom friction, dispersion, Coriolis force, and spherical curvature. The code is modified to be suitable for operational forecasting, and the resulting version (TUNAMI-N2-NUS is verified using test cases, results of other models, and real case scenarios. Using the 2004 Tsunami event as one of the scenarios, the paper examines sensitivity of numerical solutions to variation of different phenomena and parameters, and the results are analyzed and ranked accordingly.

  11. Sensitivity analysis in a Lassa fever deterministic mathematical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdullahi, Mohammed Baba; Doko, Umar Chado; Mamuda, Mamman

    2015-05-01

    Lassa virus that causes the Lassa fever is on the list of potential bio-weapons agents. It was recently imported into Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and the United States as a consequence of the rapid growth of international traffic. A model with five mutually exclusive compartments related to Lassa fever is presented and the basic reproduction number analyzed. A sensitivity analysis of the deterministic model is performed. This is done in order to determine the relative importance of the model parameters to the disease transmission. The result of the sensitivity analysis shows that the most sensitive parameter is the human immigration, followed by human recovery rate, then person to person contact. This suggests that control strategies should target human immigration, effective drugs for treatment and education to reduced person to person contact.

  12. Therapeutic Implications from Sensitivity Analysis of Tumor Angiogenesis Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poleszczuk, Jan; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Enderling, Heiko

    2015-01-01

    Anti-angiogenic cancer treatments induce tumor starvation and regression by targeting the tumor vasculature that delivers oxygen and nutrients. Mathematical models prove valuable tools to study the proof-of-concept, efficacy and underlying mechanisms of such treatment approaches. The effects of parameter value uncertainties for two models of tumor development under angiogenic signaling and anti-angiogenic treatment are studied. Data fitting is performed to compare predictions of both models and to obtain nominal parameter values for sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the success of different cancer treatments depends on tumor size and tumor intrinsic parameters. In particular, we show that tumors with ample vascular support can be successfully targeted with conventional cytotoxic treatments. On the other hand, tumors with curtailed vascular support are not limited by their growth rate and therefore interruption of neovascularization emerges as the most promising treatment target. PMID:25785600

  13. Hydrological modeling in alpine catchments: sensing the critical parameters towards an efficient model calibration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achleitner, S; Rinderer, M; Kirnbauer, R

    2009-01-01

    For the Tyrolean part of the river Inn, a hybrid model for flood forecast has been set up and is currently in its test phase. The system is a hybrid system which comprises of a hydraulic 1D model for the river Inn, and the hydrological models HQsim (Rainfall-runoff-discharge model) and the snow and ice melt model SES for modeling the rainfall runoff form non-glaciated and glaciated tributary catchment respectively. Within this paper the focus is put on the hydrological modeling of the totally 49 connected non-glaciated catchments realized with the software HQsim. In the course of model calibration, the identification of the most sensitive parameters is important aiming at an efficient calibration procedure. The indicators used for explaining the parameter sensitivities were chosen specifically for the purpose of flood forecasting. Finally five model parameters could be identified as being sensitive for model calibration when aiming for a well calibrated model for flood conditions. In addition two parameters were identified which are sensitive in situations where the snow line plays an important role.

  14. Lumped-parameter fuel rod model for rapid thermal transients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perkins, K.R.; Ramshaw, J.D.

    1975-07-01

    The thermal behavior of fuel rods during simulated accident conditions is extremely sensitive to the heat transfer coefficient which is, in turn, very sensitive to the cladding surface temperature and the fluid conditions. The development of a semianalytical, lumped-parameter fuel rod model which is intended to provide accurate calculations, in a minimum amount of computer time, of the thermal response of fuel rods during a simulated loss-of-coolant accident is described. The results show good agreement with calculations from a comprehensive fuel-rod code (FRAP-T) currently in use at Aerojet Nuclear Company

  15. Advances in Modelling, System Identification and Parameter ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    models determined from flight test data by using parameter estimation methods find extensive use in design/modification of flight control systems, high fidelity flight simulators and evaluation of handling qualitites of aircraft and rotorcraft. R K Mehra et al present new algorithms and results for flutter tests and adaptive notching ...

  16. A lumped parameter model of plasma focus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez, Jose H.; Florido, Pablo C.; Bruzzone, H.; Clausse, Alejandro

    1999-01-01

    A lumped parameter model to estimate neutron emission of a plasma focus (PF) device is developed. The dynamic of the current sheet is calculated using a snowplow model, and the neutron production with the thermal fusion cross section for a deuterium filling gas. The results were contrasted as a function of the filling pressure with experimental measurements of a 3.68 KJ Mather-type PF. (author)

  17. One parameter model potential for noble metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Idrees, M.; Khwaja, F.A.; Razmi, M.S.K.

    1981-08-01

    A phenomenological one parameter model potential which includes s-d hybridization and core-core exchange contributions is proposed for noble metals. A number of interesting properties like liquid metal resistivities, band gaps, thermoelectric powers and ion-ion interaction potentials are calculated for Cu, Ag and Au. The results obtained are in better agreement with experiment than the ones predicted by the other model potentials in the literature. (author)

  18. Sensitivity analysis on various parameters for lattice analysis of DUPIC fuel with WIMS-AECL code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roh, Gyu Hong; Choi, Hang Bok; Park, Jee Won [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1997-12-31

    The code WIMS-AECL has been used for the lattice analysis of DUPIC fuel. The lattice parameters calculated by the code is sensitive to the choice of number of parameters, such as the number of tracking lines, number of condensed groups, mesh spacing in the moderator region, other parameters vital to the calculation of probabilities and burnup analysis. We have studied this sensitivity with respect to these parameters and recommend their proper values which are necessary for carrying out the lattice analysis of DUPIC fuel.

  19. Hot deformation characteristics of AZ80 magnesium alloy: Work hardening effect and processing parameter sensitivities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cai, Y.; Wan, L.; Guo, Z. H.; Sun, C. Y.; Yang, D. J.; Zhang, Q. D.; Li, Y. L.

    2017-02-01

    Isothermal compression experiment of AZ80 magnesium alloy was conducted by Gleeble thermo-mechanical simulator in order to quantitatively investigate the work hardening (WH), strain rate sensitivity (SRS) and temperature sensitivity (TS) during hot processing of magnesium alloys. The WH, SRS and TS were described by Zener-Hollomon parameter (Z) coupling of deformation parameters. The relationships between WH rate and true strain as well as true stress were derived from Kocks-Mecking dislocation model and validated by our measurement data. The slope defined through the linear relationship of WH rate and true stress was only related to the annihilation coefficient Ω. Obvious WH behavior could be exhibited at a higher Z condition. Furthermore, we have identified the correlation between the microstructural evolution including β-Mg17Al12 precipitation and the SRS and TS variations. Intensive dynamic recrystallization and homogeneous distribution of β-Mg17Al12 precipitates resulted in greater SRS coefficient at higher temperature. The deformation heat effect and β-Mg17Al12 precipitate content can be regarded as the major factors determining the TS behavior. At low Z condition, the SRS becomes stronger, in contrast to the variation of TS. The optimum hot processing window was validated based on the established SRS and TS values distribution maps for AZ80 magnesium alloy.

  20. Parameter optimization for surface flux transport models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitbread, T.; Yeates, A. R.; Muñoz-Jaramillo, A.; Petrie, G. J. D.

    2017-11-01

    Accurate prediction of solar activity calls for precise calibration of solar cycle models. Consequently we aim to find optimal parameters for models which describe the physical processes on the solar surface, which in turn act as proxies for what occurs in the interior and provide source terms for coronal models. We use a genetic algorithm to optimize surface flux transport models using National Solar Observatory (NSO) magnetogram data for Solar Cycle 23. This is applied to both a 1D model that inserts new magnetic flux in the form of idealized bipolar magnetic regions, and also to a 2D model that assimilates specific shapes of real active regions. The genetic algorithm searches for parameter sets (meridional flow speed and profile, supergranular diffusivity, initial magnetic field, and radial decay time) that produce the best fit between observed and simulated butterfly diagrams, weighted by a latitude-dependent error structure which reflects uncertainty in observations. Due to the easily adaptable nature of the 2D model, the optimization process is repeated for Cycles 21, 22, and 24 in order to analyse cycle-to-cycle variation of the optimal solution. We find that the ranges and optimal solutions for the various regimes are in reasonable agreement with results from the literature, both theoretical and observational. The optimal meridional flow profiles for each regime are almost entirely within observational bounds determined by magnetic feature tracking, with the 2D model being able to accommodate the mean observed profile more successfully. Differences between models appear to be important in deciding values for the diffusive and decay terms. In like fashion, differences in the behaviours of different solar cycles lead to contrasts in parameters defining the meridional flow and initial field strength.

  1. Parameter uncertainty analysis of a biokinetic model of caesium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, W.B.; Oeh, U.; Klein, W.; Blanchardon, E.; Puncher, M.; Leggett, R.W.; Breustedt, B.; Nosske, D.; Lopez, M.A.

    2015-01-01

    Parameter uncertainties for the biokinetic model of caesium (Cs) developed by Leggett et al. were inventoried and evaluated. The methods of parameter uncertainty analysis were used to assess the uncertainties of model predictions with the assumptions of model parameter uncertainties and distributions. Furthermore, the importance of individual model parameters was assessed by means of sensitivity analysis. The calculated uncertainties of model predictions were compared with human data of Cs measured in blood and in the whole body. It was found that propagating the derived uncertainties in model parameter values reproduced the range of bioassay data observed in human subjects at different times after intake. The maximum ranges, expressed as uncertainty factors (UFs) (defined as a square root of ratio between 97.5. and 2.5. percentiles) of blood clearance, whole-body retention and urinary excretion of Cs predicted at earlier time after intake were, respectively: 1.5, 1.0 and 2.5 at the first day; 1.8, 1.1 and 2.4 at Day 10 and 1.8, 2.0 and 1.8 at Day 100; for the late times (1000 d) after intake, the UFs were increased to 43, 24 and 31, respectively. The model parameters of transfer rates between kidneys and blood, muscle and blood and the rate of transfer from kidneys to urinary bladder content are most influential to the blood clearance and to the whole-body retention of Cs. For the urinary excretion, the parameters of transfer rates from urinary bladder content to urine and from kidneys to urinary bladder content impact mostly. The implication and effect on the estimated equivalent and effective doses of the larger uncertainty of 43 in whole-body retention in the later time, say, after Day 500 will be explored in a successive work in the framework of EURADOS. (authors)

  2. Analisis Perbandingan Parameter Transformasi Antar Itrf Hasil Hitungan Kuadrat Terkecil Model Helmert 14-parameter Dengan Parameter Standar Iers

    OpenAIRE

    Fadly, Romi; Dewi, Citra

    2014-01-01

    This research aims to compare the 14 transformation parameters between ITRF from computation result using the Helmert 14-parameter models with IERS standard parameters. The transforma- tion parameters are calculated from the coordinates and velocities of ITRF05 to ITRF00 epoch 2000.00, and from ITRF08 to ITRF05 epoch 2005.00 for respectively transformation models. The transformation parameters are compared to the IERS standard parameters, then tested the signifi- cance of the d...

  3. Parameters-related uncertainty in modeling sugar cane yield with an agro-Land Surface Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valade, A.; Ciais, P.; Vuichard, N.; Viovy, N.; Ruget, F.; Gabrielle, B.

    2012-12-01

    Agro-Land Surface Models (agro-LSM) have been developed from the coupling of specific crop models and large-scale generic vegetation models. They aim at accounting for the spatial distribution and variability of energy, water and carbon fluxes within soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum with a particular emphasis on how crop phenology and agricultural management practice influence the turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere, and the underlying water and carbon pools. A part of the uncertainty in these models is related to the many parameters included in the models' equations. In this study, we quantify the parameter-based uncertainty in the simulation of sugar cane biomass production with the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS on a multi-regional approach with data from sites in Australia, La Reunion and Brazil. First, the main source of uncertainty for the output variables NPP, GPP, and sensible heat flux (SH) is determined through a screening of the main parameters of the model on a multi-site basis leading to the selection of a subset of most sensitive parameters causing most of the uncertainty. In a second step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out on the parameters selected from the screening analysis at a regional scale. For this, a Monte-Carlo sampling method associated with the calculation of Partial Ranked Correlation Coefficients is used. First, we quantify the sensitivity of the output variables to individual input parameters on a regional scale for two regions of intensive sugar cane cultivation in Australia and Brazil. Then, we quantify the overall uncertainty in the simulation's outputs propagated from the uncertainty in the input parameters. Seven parameters are identified by the screening procedure as driving most of the uncertainty in the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS model output at all sites. These parameters control photosynthesis (optimal temperature of photosynthesis, optimal carboxylation rate), radiation interception (extinction coefficient), root

  4. Inverse modeling of hydrologic parameters using surface flux and runoff observations in the Community Land Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Y.; Hou, Z.; Huang, M.; Tian, F.; Leung, L. Ruby

    2013-12-01

    This study demonstrates the possibility of inverting hydrologic parameters using surface flux and runoff observations in version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4). Previous studies showed that surface flux and runoff calculations are sensitive to major hydrologic parameters in CLM4 over different watersheds, and illustrated the necessity and possibility of parameter calibration. Both deterministic least-square fitting and stochastic Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-Bayesian inversion approaches are evaluated by applying them to CLM4 at selected sites with different climate and soil conditions. The unknowns to be estimated include surface and subsurface runoff generation parameters and vadose zone soil water parameters. We find that using model parameters calibrated by the sampling-based stochastic inversion approaches provides significant improvements in the model simulations compared to using default CLM4 parameter values, and that as more information comes in, the predictive intervals (ranges of posterior distributions) of the calibrated parameters become narrower. In general, parameters that are identified to be significant through sensitivity analyses and statistical tests are better calibrated than those with weak or nonlinear impacts on flux or runoff observations. Temporal resolution of observations has larger impacts on the results of inverse modeling using heat flux data than runoff data. Soil and vegetation cover have important impacts on parameter sensitivities, leading to different patterns of posterior distributions of parameters at different sites. Overall, the MCMC-Bayesian inversion approach effectively and reliably improves the simulation of CLM under different climates and environmental conditions. Bayesian model averaging of the posterior estimates with different reference acceptance probabilities can smooth the posterior distribution and provide more reliable parameter estimates, but at the expense of wider uncertainty bounds.

  5. Coupled 1D-2D hydrodynamic inundation model for sewer overflow: Influence of modeling parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adeniyi Ganiyu Adeogun

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents outcome of our investigation on the influence of modeling parameters on 1D-2D hydrodynamic inundation model for sewer overflow, developed through coupling of an existing 1D sewer network model (SWMM and 2D inundation model (BREZO. The 1D-2D hydrodynamic model was developed for the purpose of examining flood incidence due to surcharged water on overland surface. The investigation was carried out by performing sensitivity analysis on the developed model. For the sensitivity analysis, modeling parameters, such as mesh resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM resolution and roughness were considered. The outcome of the study shows the model is sensitive to changes in these parameters. The performance of the model is significantly influenced, by the Manning's friction value, the DEM resolution and the area of the triangular mesh. Also, changes in the aforementioned modeling parameters influence the Flood characteristics, such as the inundation extent, the flow depth and the velocity across the model domain.

  6. Constant-parameter capture-recapture models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brownie, C.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.

    1986-01-01

    Jolly (1982, Biometrics 38, 301-321) presented modifications of the Jolly-Seber model for capture-recapture data, which assume constant survival and/or capture rates. Where appropriate, because of the reduced number of parameters, these models lead to more efficient estimators than the Jolly-Seber model. The tests to compare models given by Jolly do not make complete use of the data, and we present here the appropriate modifications, and also indicate how to carry out goodness-of-fit tests which utilize individual capture history information. We also describe analogous models for the case where young and adult animals are tagged. The availability of computer programs to perform the analysis is noted, and examples are given using output from these programs.

  7. A sensitivity analysis method for the body segment inertial parameters based on ground reaction and joint moment regressor matrices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Futamure, Sumire; Bonnet, Vincent; Dumas, Raphael; Venture, Gentiane

    2017-11-07

    This paper presents a method allowing a simple and efficient sensitivity analysis of dynamics parameters of complex whole-body human model. The proposed method is based on the ground reaction and joint moment regressor matrices, developed initially in robotics system identification theory, and involved in the equations of motion of the human body. The regressor matrices are linear relatively to the segment inertial parameters allowing us to use simple sensitivity analysis methods. The sensitivity analysis method was applied over gait dynamics and kinematics data of nine subjects and with a 15 segments 3D model of the locomotor apparatus. According to the proposed sensitivity indices, 76 segments inertial parameters out the 150 of the mechanical model were considered as not influent for gait. The main findings were that the segment masses were influent and that, at the exception of the trunk, moment of inertia were not influent for the computation of the ground reaction forces and moments and the joint moments. The same method also shows numerically that at least 90% of the lower-limb joint moments during the stance phase can be estimated only from a force-plate and kinematics data without knowing any of the segment inertial parameters. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Aqueous Electrolytes: Model Parameters and Process Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Kaj

    This thesis deals with aqueous electrolyte mixtures. The Extended UNIQUAC model is being used to describe the excess Gibbs energy of such solutions. Extended UNIQUAC parameters for the twelve ions Na+, K+, NH4+, H+, Cl-, NO3-, SO42-, HSO4-, OH-, CO32-, HCO3-, and S2O82- are estimated. A computer ...... program including a steady state process simulator for the design, simulation, and optimization of fractional crystallization processes is presented.......This thesis deals with aqueous electrolyte mixtures. The Extended UNIQUAC model is being used to describe the excess Gibbs energy of such solutions. Extended UNIQUAC parameters for the twelve ions Na+, K+, NH4+, H+, Cl-, NO3-, SO42-, HSO4-, OH-, CO32-, HCO3-, and S2O82- are estimated. A computer...

  9. Sensitivity analysis of Smith's AMRV model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ho, Chih-Hsiang

    1995-01-01

    Multiple-expert hazard/risk assessments have considerable precedent, particularly in the Yucca Mountain site characterization studies. In this paper, we present a Bayesian approach to statistical modeling in volcanic hazard assessment for the Yucca Mountain site. Specifically, we show that the expert opinion on the site disruption parameter p is elicited on the prior distribution, π (p), based on geological information that is available. Moreover, π (p) can combine all available geological information motivated by conflicting but realistic arguments (e.g., simulation, cluster analysis, structural control, etc.). The incorporated uncertainties about the probability of repository disruption p, win eventually be averaged out by taking the expectation over π (p). We use the following priors in the analysis: priors chosen for mathematical convenience: Beta (r, s) for (r, s) = (2, 2), (3, 3), (5, 5), (2, 1), (2, 8), (8, 2), and (1, 1); and three priors motivated by expert knowledge. Sensitivity analysis is performed for each prior distribution. Estimated values of hazard based on the priors chosen for mathematical simplicity are uniformly higher than those obtained based on the priors motivated by expert knowledge. And, the model using the prior, Beta (8,2), yields the highest hazard (= 2.97 X 10 -2 ). The minimum hazard is produced by the open-quotes three-expert priorclose quotes (i.e., values of p are equally likely at 10 -3 10 -2 , and 10 -1 ). The estimate of the hazard is 1.39 x which is only about one order of magnitude smaller than the maximum value. The term, open-quotes hazardclose quotes, is defined as the probability of at least one disruption of a repository at the Yucca Mountain site by basaltic volcanism for the next 10,000 years

  10. Sensitivity Analysis of Unsaturated Flow and Contaminant Transport with Correlated Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Relative contributions from uncertainties in input parameters to the predictive uncertainties in unsaturated flow and contaminant transport are investigated in this study. The objectives are to: (1) examine the effects of input parameter correlations on the sensitivity of unsaturated flow and conta...

  11. Sensitivity of the optimal parameter settings for a LTE packet scheduler

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fernandez-Diaz, I.; Litjens, R.; van den Berg, C.A.; Dimitrova, D.C.; Spaey, K.

    Advanced packet scheduling schemes in 3G/3G+ mobile networks provide one or more parameters to optimise the trade-off between QoS and resource efficiency. In this paper we study the sensitivity of the optimal parameter setting for packet scheduling in LTE radio networks with respect to various

  12. Climate stability and sensitivity in some simple conceptual models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bates, J. Ray [University College Dublin, Meteorology and Climate Centre, School of Mathematical Sciences, Dublin (Ireland)

    2012-02-15

    A theoretical investigation of climate stability and sensitivity is carried out using three simple linearized models based on the top-of-the-atmosphere energy budget. The simplest is the zero-dimensional model (ZDM) commonly used as a conceptual basis for climate sensitivity and feedback studies. The others are two-zone models with tropics and extratropics of equal area; in the first of these (Model A), the dynamical heat transport (DHT) between the zones is implicit, in the second (Model B) it is explicitly parameterized. It is found that the stability and sensitivity properties of the ZDM and Model A are very similar, both depending only on the global-mean radiative response coefficient and the global-mean forcing. The corresponding properties of Model B are more complex, depending asymmetrically on the separate tropical and extratropical values of these quantities, as well as on the DHT coefficient. Adopting Model B as a benchmark, conditions are found under which the validity of the ZDM and Model A as climate sensitivity models holds. It is shown that parameter ranges of physical interest exist for which such validity may not hold. The 2 x CO{sub 2} sensitivities of the simple models are studied and compared. Possible implications of the results for sensitivities derived from GCMs and palaeoclimate data are suggested. Sensitivities for more general scenarios that include negative forcing in the tropics (due to aerosols, inadvertent or geoengineered) are also studied. Some unexpected outcomes are found in this case. These include the possibility of a negative global-mean temperature response to a positive global-mean forcing, and vice versa. (orig.)

  13. The mass movement routing tool r.randomwalk and its functionalities for parameter sensitivity analysis and optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krenn, Julia; Mergili, Martin

    2016-04-01

    r.randomwalk is a GIS-based, multi-functional conceptual tool for mass movement routing. Starting from one to many release points or release areas, mass points are routed down through the digital elevation model until a defined break criterion is reached. Break criteria are defined by the user and may consist in an angle of reach or a related parameter (empirical-statistical relationships), in the drop of the flow velocity to zero (two-parameter friction model), or in the exceedance of a maximum runup height. Multiple break criteria may be combined. A constrained random walk approach is applied for the routing procedure, where the slope and the perpetuation of the flow direction determine the probability of the flow to move in a certain direction. r.randomwalk is implemented as a raster module of the GRASS GIS software and, as such, is open source. It can be obtained from http://www.mergili.at/randomwalk.html. Besides other innovative functionalities, r.randomwalk serves with built-in functionalities for the derivation of an impact indicator index (III) map with values in the range 0-1. III is derived from multiple model runs with different combinations of input parameters varied in a random or controlled way. It represents the fraction of model runs predicting an impact at a given pixel and is evaluated against the observed impact area through an ROC Plot. The related tool r.ranger facilitates the automated generation and evaluation of many III maps from a variety of sets of parameter combinations. We employ r.randomwalk and r.ranger for parameter optimization and sensitivity analysis. Thereby we do not focus on parameter values, but - accounting for the uncertainty inherent in all parameters - on parameter ranges. In this sense, we demonstrate two strategies for parameter sensitivity analysis and optimization. We avoid to (i) use one-at-a-time parameter testing which would fail to account for interdependencies of the parameters, and (ii) to explore all possible

  14. Analytic uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of models with input correlations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Yueying; Wang, Qiuping A.; Li, Wei; Cai, Xu

    2018-03-01

    Probabilistic uncertainty analysis is a common means of evaluating mathematical models. In mathematical modeling, the uncertainty in input variables is specified through distribution laws. Its contribution to the uncertainty in model response is usually analyzed by assuming that input variables are independent of each other. However, correlated parameters are often happened in practical applications. In the present paper, an analytic method is built for the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of models in the presence of input correlations. With the method, it is straightforward to identify the importance of the independence and correlations of input variables in determining the model response. This allows one to decide whether or not the input correlations should be considered in practice. Numerical examples suggest the effectiveness and validation of our analytic method in the analysis of general models. A practical application of the method is also proposed to the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a deterministic HIV model.

  15. Sensitivity Analysis of Methane Hydrate Reservoirs: Effects of Reservoir Parameters on Gas Productivity and Economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, B. J.; Gaddipati, M.; Nyayapathi, L.

    2008-12-01

    This paper presents a parametric study on production rates of natural gas from gas hydrates by the method of depressurization, using CMG STARS. Seven factors/parameters were considered as perturbations from a base-case hydrate reservoir description based on Problem 7 of the International Methane Hydrate Reservoir Simulator Code Comparison Study led by the Department of Energy and the USGS. This reservoir is modeled after the inferred properties of the hydrate deposit at the Prudhoe Bay L-106 site. The included sensitivity variables were hydrate saturation, pressure (depth), temperature, bottom-hole pressure of the production well, free water saturation, intrinsic rock permeability, and porosity. A two-level (L=2) Plackett-Burman experimental design was used to study the relative effects of these factors. The measured variable was the discounted cumulative gas production. The discount rate chosen was 15%, resulting in the gas contribution to the net present value of a reservoir. Eight different designs were developed for conducting sensitivity analysis and the effects of the parameters on the real and discounted production rates will be discussed. The breakeven price in various cases and the dependence of the breakeven price on the production parameters is given in the paper. As expected, initial reservoir temperature has the strongest positive effect on the productivity of a hydrate deposit and the bottom-hole pressure in the production well has the strongest negative dependence. Also resulting in a positive correlation is the intrinsic permeability and the initial free water of the formation. Negative effects were found for initial hydrate saturation (at saturations greater than 50% of the pore space) and the reservoir porosity. These negative effects are related to the available sensible heat of the reservoir, with decreasing productivity due to decreasing available sensible heat. Finally, we conclude that for the base case reservoir, the break-even price (BEP

  16. Sensitivity analysis of the terrestrial food chain model FOOD III

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zach, Reto.

    1980-10-01

    As a first step in constructing a terrestrial food chain model suitable for long-term waste management situations, a numerical sensitivity analysis of FOOD III was carried out to identify important model parameters. The analysis involved 42 radionuclides, four pathways, 14 food types, 93 parameters and three percentages of parameter variation. We also investigated the importance of radionuclides, pathways and food types. The analysis involved a simple contamination model to render results from individual pathways comparable. The analysis showed that radionuclides vary greatly in their dose contribution to each of the four pathways, but relative contributions to each pathway are very similar. Man's and animals' drinking water pathways are much more important than the leaf and root pathways. However, this result depends on the contamination model used. All the pathways contain unimportant food types. Considering the number of parameters involved, FOOD III has too many different food types. Many of the parameters of the leaf and root pathway are important. However, this is true for only a few of the parameters of animals' drinking water pathway, and for neither of the two parameters of mans' drinking water pathway. The radiological decay constant increases the variability of these results. The dose factor is consistently the most important variable, and it explains most of the variability of radionuclide doses within pathways. Consideration of the variability of dose factors is important in contemporary as well as long-term waste management assessment models, if realistic estimates are to be made. (auth)

  17. LBLOCA sensitivity analysis using meta models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villamizar, M.; Sanchez-Saez, F.; Villanueva, J.F.; Carlos, S.; Sanchez, A.I.; Martorell, S.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents an approach to perform the sensitivity analysis of the results of simulation of thermal hydraulic codes within a BEPU approach. Sensitivity analysis is based on the computation of Sobol' indices that makes use of a meta model, It presents also an application to a Large-Break Loss of Coolant Accident, LBLOCA, in the cold leg of a pressurized water reactor, PWR, addressing the results of the BEMUSE program and using the thermal-hydraulic code TRACE. (authors)

  18. Modelling tourists arrival using time varying parameter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suciptawati, P.; Sukarsa, K. G.; Kencana, Eka N.

    2017-06-01

    The importance of tourism and its related sectors to support economic development and poverty reduction in many countries increase researchers’ attentions to study and model tourists’ arrival. This work is aimed to demonstrate time varying parameter (TVP) technique to model the arrival of Korean’s tourists to Bali. The number of Korean tourists whom visiting Bali for period January 2010 to December 2015 were used to model the number of Korean’s tourists to Bali (KOR) as dependent variable. The predictors are the exchange rate of Won to IDR (WON), the inflation rate in Korea (INFKR), and the inflation rate in Indonesia (INFID). Observing tourists visit to Bali tend to fluctuate by their nationality, then the model was built by applying TVP and its parameters were approximated using Kalman Filter algorithm. The results showed all of predictor variables (WON, INFKR, INFID) significantly affect KOR. For in-sample and out-of-sample forecast with ARIMA’s forecasted values for the predictors, TVP model gave mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) as much as 11.24 percent and 12.86 percent, respectively.

  19. Sensitivity of storage field performance to geologic and cavern design parameters in salt domes.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ehgartner, Brian L. (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Park, Byoung Yoon

    2009-03-01

    A sensitivity study was performed utilizing a three dimensional finite element model to assess allowable cavern field sizes for strategic petroleum reserve salt domes. A potential exists for tensile fracturing and dilatancy damage to salt that can compromise the integrity of a cavern field in situations where high extraction ratios exist. The effects of salt creep rate, depth of salt dome top, dome size, caprock thickness, elastic moduli of caprock and surrounding rock, lateral stress ratio of surrounding rock, cavern size, depth of cavern, and number of caverns are examined numerically. As a result, a correlation table between the parameters and the impact on the performance of storage field was established. In general, slower salt creep rates, deeper depth of salt dome top, larger elastic moduli of caprock and surrounding rock, and a smaller radius of cavern are better for structural performance of the salt dome.

  20. Sensitive parameters in predicting exposure contaminants concentration in a risk assessment process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avagliano, Salvatore; Vecchio, Antonella; Belgiorno, Vincenzo

    2005-12-01

    A sensitivity analysis (SA) was conducted on the analytical models considered in the risk-based corrective-action (RBCA) methodology of risk analysis, as developed by the American Society for Testing of Materials (ASTM), to predict a contaminant's concentration in the affected medium at the point of human exposure. These models are of interest because evaluations regarding the best approach to contaminated site remediation are shifting toward increased use of risk-based decision, and the ASTM RBCA methodology represents the most effective and internationally widely used standardized guide for risk assessment process. This paper identifies key physical and chemical parameters that need additional precision and accuracy consideration in order to reduce uncertainty in models prediction, thereby saving time, money and engineering effort in the data collection process. SA was performed applying a variance-based method to organic contaminants migration models with reference to soil-to-groundwater leaching ingestion exposure scenario. Results indicate that model output strongly depends on the organic-carbon partition coefficient, organic-carbon content, net infiltration, Darcy velocity, source-receptor distance, and first-order decay constant.

  1. Assessment of Wind Parameter Sensitivity on Ultimate and Fatigue Wind Turbine Loads: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robertson, Amy N [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sethuraman, Latha [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jonkman, Jason [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Quick, Julian [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2018-02-13

    Wind turbines are designed using a set of simulations to ascertain the structural loads that the turbine could encounter. While mean hub-height wind speed is considered to vary, other wind parameters such as turbulence spectra, sheer, veer, spatial coherence, and component correlation are fixed or conditional values that, in reality, could have different characteristics at different sites and have a significant effect on the resulting loads. This paper therefore seeks to assess the sensitivity of different wind parameters on the resulting ultimate and fatigue loads on the turbine during normal operational conditions. Eighteen different wind parameters are screened using an Elementary Effects approach with radial points. As expected, the results show a high sensitivity of the loads to the turbulence standard deviation in the primary wind direction, but the sensitivity to wind shear is often much greater. To a lesser extent, other wind parameters that drive loads include the coherence in the primary wind direction and veer.

  2. Assessment of Wind Parameter Sensitivity on Extreme and Fatigue Wind Turbine Loads

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robertson, Amy N [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sethuraman, Latha [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jonkman, Jason [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Quick, Julian [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2018-01-12

    Wind turbines are designed using a set of simulations to ascertain the structural loads that the turbine could encounter. While mean hub-height wind speed is considered to vary, other wind parameters such as turbulence spectra, sheer, veer, spatial coherence, and component correlation are fixed or conditional values that, in reality, could have different characteristics at different sites and have a significant effect on the resulting loads. This paper therefore seeks to assess the sensitivity of different wind parameters on the resulting ultimate and fatigue loads on the turbine during normal operational conditions. Eighteen different wind parameters are screened using an Elementary Effects approach with radial points. As expected, the results show a high sensitivity of the loads to the turbulence standard deviation in the primary wind direction, but the sensitivity to wind shear is often much greater. To a lesser extent, other wind parameters that drive loads include the coherence in the primary wind direction and veer.

  3. The Sensitivity of the Input Impedance Parameters of Track Circuits to Changes in the Parameters of the Track

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lubomir Ivanek

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the sensitivity of the input impedance of an open track circuit in the event that the parameters of the track are changed. Weather conditions and the state of pollution are the most common reasons for parameter changes. The results were obtained from the measured values of the parameters R (resistance, G (conductance, L (inductance, and C (capacitance of a rail superstructure depending on the frequency. Measurements were performed on a railway siding in Orlova. The results are used to design a predictor of occupancy of a track section. In particular, we were interested in the frequencies of 75 and 275 Hz for this purpose. Many parameter values of track substructures have already been solved in different works in literature. At first, we had planned to use the parameter values from these sources when we designed the predictor. Deviations between them, however, are large and often differ by three orders of magnitude (see Tab.8. From this perspective, this article presents data that have been updated using modern measurement devices and computer technology. And above all, it shows a transmission (cascade matrix used to determine the parameters.

  4. Are LOD and LOQ Reliable Parameters for Sensitivity Evaluation of Spectroscopic Methods?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ershadi, Saba; Shayanfar, Ali

    2018-03-22

    The limit of detection (LOD) and the limit of quantification (LOQ) are common parameters to assess the sensitivity of analytical methods. In this study, the LOD and LOQ of previously reported terbium sensitized analysis methods were calculated by different methods, and the results were compared with sensitivity parameters [lower limit of quantification (LLOQ)] of U.S. Food and Drug Administration guidelines. The details of the calibration curve and standard deviation of blank samples of three different terbium-sensitized luminescence methods for the quantification of mycophenolic acid, enrofloxacin, and silibinin were used for the calculation of LOD and LOQ. A comparison of LOD and LOQ values calculated by various methods and LLOQ shows a considerable difference. The significant difference of the calculated LOD and LOQ with various methods and LLOQ should be considered in the sensitivity evaluation of spectroscopic methods.

  5. Lumped Parameters Model of a Crescent Pump

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Massimo Rundo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the lumped parameters model of an internal gear crescent pump with relief valve, able to estimate the steady-state flow-pressure characteristic and the pressure ripple. The approach is based on the identification of three variable control volumes regardless of the number of gear teeth. The model has been implemented in the commercial environment LMS Amesim with the development of customized components. Specific attention has been paid to the leakage passageways, some of them affected by the deformation of the cover plate under the action of the delivery pressure. The paper reports the finite element method analysis of the cover for the evaluation of the deflection and the validation through a contactless displacement transducer. Another aspect described in this study is represented by the computational fluid dynamics analysis of the relief valve, whose results have been used for tuning the lumped parameters model. Finally, the validation of the entire model of the pump is presented in terms of steady-state flow rate and of pressure oscillations.

  6. Investigation of land use effects on Nash model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niazi, Faegheh; Fakheri Fard, Ahmad; Nourani, Vahid; Goodrich, David; Gupta, Hoshin

    2015-04-01

    Flood forecasting is of great importance in hydrologic planning, hydraulic structure design, water resources management and sustainable designs like flood control and management. Nash's instantaneous unit hydrograph is frequently used for simulating hydrological response in natural watersheds. Urban hydrology is gaining more attention due to population increases and associated construction escalation. Rapid development of urban areas affects the hydrologic processes of watersheds by decreasing soil permeability, flood base flow, lag time and increase in flood volume, peak runoff rates and flood frequency. In this study the influence of urbanization on the significant parameters of the Nash model have been investigated. These parameters were calculated using three popular methods (i.e. moment, root mean square error and random sampling data generation), in a small watershed consisting of one natural sub-watershed which drains into a residentially developed sub-watershed in the city of Sierra Vista, Arizona. The results indicated that for all three methods, the lag time, which is product of Nash parameters "K" and "n", in the natural sub-watershed is greater than the developed one. This logically implies more storage and/or attenuation in the natural sub-watershed. The median K and n parameters derived from the three methods using calibration events were tested via a set of verification events. The results indicated that all the three method have acceptable accuracy in hydrograph simulation. The CDF curves and histograms of the parameters clearly show the difference of the Nash parameter values between the natural and developed sub-watersheds. Some specific upper and lower percentile values of the median of the generated parameters (i.e. 10, 20 and 30 %) were analyzed to future investigates the derived parameters. The model was sensitive to variations in the value of the uncertain K and n parameter. Changes in n are smaller than K in both sub-watersheds indicating

  7. Sensitivities and uncertainties of modeled ground temperatures in mountain environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Gubler

    2013-08-01

    discretization parameters. We show that the temporal resolution should be at least 1 h to ensure errors less than 0.2 °C in modeled MAGT, and the uppermost ground layer should at most be 20 mm thick. Within the topographic setting, the total parametric output uncertainties expressed as the length of the 95% uncertainty interval of the Monte Carlo simulations range from 0.5 to 1.5 °C for clay and silt, and ranges from 0.5 to around 2.4 °C for peat, sand, gravel and rock. These uncertainties are comparable to the variability of ground surface temperatures measured within 10 m × 10 m grids in Switzerland. The increased uncertainties for sand, peat and gravel are largely due to their sensitivity to the hydraulic conductivity.

  8. Transport of radioactive material by road: A study of sensitive parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Upadhyay, K.C.

    2001-01-01

    The paper examines the parameters involved in the transport of radioactive material by road with a view to achieve a possible reduction in the population exposure. For this purpose the sensitivity table generated by the INTERTRAN 2 code is used. The parameters more important for the purpose of dose reduction are identified. The significance of these parameters is discussed in detail. An attempt is made to minimise the collective dose value for the road transport by considering a variation in the values of these parameters. (author)

  9. Piezoresistive Cantilever Performance—Part I: Analytical Model for Sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Sung-Jin; Doll, Joseph C.; Pruitt, Beth L.

    2010-01-01

    An accurate analytical model for the change in resistance of a piezoresistor is necessary for the design of silicon piezoresistive transducers. Ion implantation requires a high-temperature oxidation or annealing process to activate the dopant atoms, and this treatment results in a distorted dopant profile due to diffusion. Existing analytical models do not account for the concentration dependence of piezoresistance and are not accurate for nonuniform dopant profiles. We extend previous analytical work by introducing two nondimensional factors, namely, the efficiency and geometry factors. A practical benefit of this efficiency factor is that it separates the process parameters from the design parameters; thus, designers may address requirements for cantilever geometry and fabrication process independently. To facilitate the design process, we provide a lookup table for the efficiency factor over an extensive range of process conditions. The model was validated by comparing simulation results with the experimentally determined sensitivities of piezoresistive cantilevers. We performed 9200 TSUPREM4 simulations and fabricated 50 devices from six unique process flows; we systematically explored the design space relating process parameters and cantilever sensitivity. Our treatment focuses on piezoresistive cantilevers, but the analytical sensitivity model is extensible to other piezoresistive transducers such as membrane pressure sensors. PMID:20336183

  10. Transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS): compared sensitivity of different motor response parameters in ALS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouget, J; Trefouret, S; Attarian, S

    2000-06-01

    Owing to the low sensitivity of clinical signs in assessing upper motor neuron (UMN) involvement in ALS, there is a need for investigative tools capable of detecting abnormal function of the pyramidal tract. Transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) may contribute to the diagnosis by reflecting a UMN dysfunction that is not clinically detectable. Several parameters for the motor responses to TMS can be evaluated with different levels of significance in healthy subjects compared with ALS patients. The central motor conduction time, however, is not sensitive in detecting subclinical UMN defects in individual ALS patients. The amplitude of the motor evoked potential (MEP), expressed as the percentage of the maximum wave, also has a low sensitivity. In some cases, the corticomotor threshold is decreased early in the disease course as a result of corticomotor neuron hyperexcitability induced by glutamate. Later, the threshold increases, indicating a loss of UMN. In our experience, a decreased silent period duration appears to be the most sensitive parameter when using motor TMS in ALS. TMS is also a sensitive technique for investigating the corticobulbar tract, which is difficult to study by other methods. TMS is a widely available, painless and safe technique with a good sensitivity that can visualize both corticospinal and corticobulbar tract abnormalities. The sensitivity can be improved further by taking into account the several MEP parameters, including latency and cortical silent period decreased duration.

  11. Modeling of Parameters of Subcritical Assembly SAD

    CERN Document Server

    Petrochenkov, S; Puzynin, I

    2005-01-01

    The accepted conceptual design of the experimental Subcritical Assembly in Dubna (SAD) is based on the MOX core with a nominal unit capacity of 25 kW (thermal). This corresponds to the multiplication coefficient $k_{\\rm eff} =0.95$ and accelerator beam power 1 kW. A subcritical assembly driven with the existing 660 MeV proton accelerator at the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research has been modelled in order to make choice of the optimal parameters for the future experiments. The Monte Carlo method was used to simulate neutron spectra, energy deposition and doses calculations. Some of the calculation results are presented in the paper.

  12. Parameter estimation in fractional diffusion models

    CERN Document Server

    Kubilius, Kęstutis; Ralchenko, Kostiantyn

    2017-01-01

    This book is devoted to parameter estimation in diffusion models involving fractional Brownian motion and related processes. For many years now, standard Brownian motion has been (and still remains) a popular model of randomness used to investigate processes in the natural sciences, financial markets, and the economy. The substantial limitation in the use of stochastic diffusion models with Brownian motion is due to the fact that the motion has independent increments, and, therefore, the random noise it generates is “white,” i.e., uncorrelated. However, many processes in the natural sciences, computer networks and financial markets have long-term or short-term dependences, i.e., the correlations of random noise in these processes are non-zero, and slowly or rapidly decrease with time. In particular, models of financial markets demonstrate various kinds of memory and usually this memory is modeled by fractional Brownian diffusion. Therefore, the book constructs diffusion models with memory and provides s...

  13. Development of a benchmark parameter scan for Higgs bosons in the NMSSM Model and a study of the sensitivity for H{yields}AA{yields}4{tau} in vector boson fusion with the ATLAS detector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rottlaender, Iris

    2008-08-15

    An evaluation of the discovery potential for NMSSM Higgs bosons of the ATLAS experiment at the LHC is presented. For this purpose, seven two-dimensional benchmark planes in the six-dimensional parameter space of the NMSSM Higgs sector are defined. These planes include different types of phenomenology for which the discovery of NMSSM Higgs bosons is especially challenging and which are considered typical for the NMSSM. They are subsequently used to give a detailed evaluation of the Higgs boson discovery potential based on Monte Carlo studies from the ATLAS collaboration. Afterwards, the possibility of discovering NMSSM Higgs bosons via the H{sub 1}{yields}A{sub 1}A{sub 1}{yields}4{tau}{yields}4{mu}+8{nu} decay chain and with the vector boson fusion production mode is investigated. A particular emphasis is put on the mass reconstruction from the complex final state. Furthermore, a study of the jet reconstruction performance at the ATLAS experiment which is of crucial relevance for vector boson fusion searches is presented. A good detectability of the so-called tagging jets that originate from the scattered partons in the vector boson fusion process is of critical importance for an early Higgs boson discovery in many models and also within the framework of the NMSSM. (orig.)

  14. Heat and Mass Transfer of Vacuum Cooling for Porous Foods-Parameter Sensitivity Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhijun Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the theory of heat and mass transfer, a coupled model for the porous food vacuum cooling process is constructed. Sensitivity analyses of the process to food density, thermal conductivity, specific heat, latent heat of evaporation, diameter of pores, mass transfer coefficient, viscosity of gas, and porosity were examined. The simulation results show that the food density would affect the vacuum cooling process but not the vacuum cooling end temperature. The surface temperature of food was slightly affected and the core temperature is not affected by the changed thermal conductivity. The core temperature and surface temperature are affected by the changed specific heat. The core temperature and surface temperature are affected by the changed latent heat of evaporation. The core temperature is affected by the diameter of pores. But the surface temperature is not affected obviously. The core temperature and surface temperature are not affected by the changed gas viscosity. The parameter sensitivity of mass transfer coefficient is obvious. The core temperature and surface temperature are affected by the changed mass transfer coefficient. In all the simulations, the end temperature of core and surface is not affected. The vacuum cooling process of porous medium is a process controlled by outside process.

  15. Sensitivity Analysis of the Influence of Structural Parameters on Dynamic Behaviour of Highly Redundant Cable-Stayed Bridges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Asgari

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The model tuning through sensitivity analysis is a prominent procedure to assess the structural behavior and dynamic characteristics of cable-stayed bridges. Most of the previous sensitivity-based model tuning methods are automatic iterative processes; however, the results of recent studies show that the most reasonable results are achievable by applying the manual methods to update the analytical model of cable-stayed bridges. This paper presents a model updating algorithm for highly redundant cable-stayed bridges that can be used as an iterative manual procedure. The updating parameters are selected through the sensitivity analysis which helps to better understand the structural behavior of the bridge. The finite element model of Tatara Bridge is considered for the numerical studies. The results of the simulations indicate the efficiency and applicability of the presented manual tuning method for updating the finite element model of cable-stayed bridges. The new aspects regarding effective material and structural parameters and model tuning procedure presented in this paper will be useful for analyzing and model updating of cable-stayed bridges.

  16. Sensitivity Analysis of a Physiochemical Interaction Model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The mathematical modelling of physiochemical interactions in the framework of industrial and environmental physics usually relies on an initial value problem which is described by a single first order ordinary differential equation. In this analysis, we will study the sensitivity analysis due to a variation of the initial condition ...

  17. Tracer SWIW tests in propped and un-propped fractures: parameter sensitivity issues, revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghergut, Julia; Behrens, Horst; Sauter, Martin

    2017-04-01

    Single-well injection-withdrawal (SWIW) or 'push-then-pull' tracer methods appear attractive for a number of reasons: less uncertainty on design and dimensioning, and lower tracer quantities required than for inter-well tests; stronger tracer signals, enabling easier and cheaper metering, and shorter metering duration required, reaching higher tracer mass recovery than in inter-well tests; last not least: no need for a second well. However, SWIW tracer signal inversion faces a major issue: the 'push-then-pull' design weakens the correlation between tracer residence times and georeservoir transport parameters, inducing insensitivity or ambiguity of tracer signal inversion w. r. to some of those georeservoir parameters that are supposed to be the target of tracer tests par excellence: pore velocity, transport-effective porosity, fracture or fissure aperture and spacing or density (where applicable), fluid/solid or fluid/fluid phase interface density. Hydraulic methods cannot measure the transport-effective values of such parameters, because pressure signals correlate neither with fluid motion, nor with material fluxes through (fluid-rock, or fluid-fluid) phase interfaces. The notorious ambiguity impeding parameter inversion from SWIW test signals has nourished several 'modeling attitudes': (i) regard dispersion as the key process encompassing whatever superposition of underlying transport phenomena, and seek a statistical description of flow-path collectives enabling to characterize dispersion independently of any other transport parameter, as proposed by Gouze et al. (2008), with Hansen et al. (2016) offering a comprehensive analysis of the various ways dispersion model assumptions interfere with parameter inversion from SWIW tests; (ii) regard diffusion as the key process, and seek for a large-time, asymptotically advection-independent regime in the measured tracer signals (Haggerty et al. 2001), enabling a dispersion-independent characterization of multiple

  18. Numerical modeling of shock-sensitivity experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bowman, A.L.; Forest, C.A.; Kershner, J.D.; Mader, C.L.; Pimbley, G.H.

    1981-01-01

    The Forest Fire rate model of shock initiation of heterogeneous explosives has been used to study several experiments commonly performed to measure the sensitivity of explosives to shock and to study initiation by explosive-formed jets. The minimum priming charge test, the gap test, the shotgun test, sympathetic detonation, and jet initiation have been modeled numerically using the Forest Fire rate in the reactive hydrodynamic codes SIN and 2DE.

  19. Moose models with vanishing S parameter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casalbuoni, R.; De Curtis, S.; Dominici, D.

    2004-01-01

    In the linear moose framework, which naturally emerges in deconstruction models, we show that there is a unique solution for the vanishing of the S parameter at the lowest order in the weak interactions. We consider an effective gauge theory based on K SU(2) gauge groups, K+1 chiral fields, and electroweak groups SU(2) L and U(1) Y at the ends of the chain of the moose. S vanishes when a link in the moose chain is cut. As a consequence one has to introduce a dynamical nonlocal field connecting the two ends of the moose. Then the model acquires an additional custodial symmetry which protects this result. We examine also the possibility of a strong suppression of S through an exponential behavior of the link couplings as suggested by the Randall Sundrum metric

  20. A Workflow for Global Sensitivity Analysis of PBPK Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin eMcNally

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Physiologically based pharmacokinetic models have a potentially significant role in the development of a reliable predictive toxicity testing strategy. The structure of PBPK models are ideal frameworks into which disparate in vitro and in vivo data can be integrated and utilised to translate information generated, using alternative to animal measures of toxicity and human biological monitoring data, into plausible corresponding exposures. However, these models invariably include the description of well known non-linear biological processes such as, enzyme saturation and interactions between parameters such as, organ mass and body mass. Therefore, an appropriate sensitivity analysis technique is required which can quantify the influences associated with individual parameters, interactions between parameters and any non-linear processes. In this report we have defined a workflow for sensitivity analysis of PBPK models that is computationally feasible, accounts for interactions between parameters, and can be displayed in the form of a bar chart and cumulative sum line (Lowry plot, which we believe is intuitive and appropriate for toxicologists, risk assessors and regulators.

  1. Relative sensitivity analysis of the predictive properties of sloppy models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myasnikova, Ekaterina; Spirov, Alexander

    2018-01-25

    Commonly among the model parameters characterizing complex biological systems are those that do not significantly influence the quality of the fit to experimental data, so-called "sloppy" parameters. The sloppiness can be mathematically expressed through saturating response functions (Hill's, sigmoid) thereby embodying biological mechanisms responsible for the system robustness to external perturbations. However, if a sloppy model is used for the prediction of the system behavior at the altered input (e.g. knock out mutations, natural expression variability), it may demonstrate the poor predictive power due to the ambiguity in the parameter estimates. We introduce a method of the predictive power evaluation under the parameter estimation uncertainty, Relative Sensitivity Analysis. The prediction problem is addressed in the context of gene circuit models describing the dynamics of segmentation gene expression in Drosophila embryo. Gene regulation in these models is introduced by a saturating sigmoid function of the concentrations of the regulatory gene products. We show how our approach can be applied to characterize the essential difference between the sensitivity properties of robust and non-robust solutions and select among the existing solutions those providing the correct system behavior at any reasonable input. In general, the method allows to uncover the sources of incorrect predictions and proposes the way to overcome the estimation uncertainties.

  2. Reliability-based sensitivity of mechanical components with arbitrary distribution parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Yi Min; Yang, Zhou; Wen, Bang Chun; He, Xiang Dong; Liu, Qiaoling

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a reliability-based sensitivity method for mechanical components with arbitrary distribution parameters. Techniques from the perturbation method, the Edgeworth series, the reliability-based design theory, and the sensitivity analysis approach were employed directly to calculate the reliability-based sensitivity of mechanical components on the condition that the first four moments of the original random variables are known. The reliability-based sensitivity information of the mechanical components can be accurately and quickly obtained using a practical computer program. The effects of the design parameters on the reliability of mechanical components were studied. The method presented in this paper provides the theoretic basis for the reliability-based design of mechanical components

  3. Investigation of RADTRAN Stop Model input parameters for truck stops

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Griego, N.R.; Smith, J.D.; Neuhauser, K.S.

    1996-01-01

    RADTRAN is a computer code for estimating the risks and consequences as transport of radioactive materials (RAM). RADTRAN was developed and is maintained by Sandia National Laboratories for the US Department of Energy (DOE). For incident-free transportation, the dose to persons exposed while the shipment is stopped is frequently a major percentage of the overall dose. This dose is referred to as Stop Dose and is calculated by the Stop Model. Because stop dose is a significant portion of the overall dose associated with RAM transport, the values used as input for the Stop Model are important. Therefore, an investigation of typical values for RADTRAN Stop Parameters for truck stops was performed. The resulting data from these investigations were analyzed to provide mean values, standard deviations, and histograms. Hence, the mean values can be used when an analyst does not have a basis for selecting other input values for the Stop Model. In addition, the histograms and their characteristics can be used to guide statistical sampling techniques to measure sensitivity of the RADTRAN calculated Stop Dose to the uncertainties in the stop model input parameters. This paper discusses the details and presents the results of the investigation of stop model input parameters at truck stops

  4. Sensitive zone parameters and curvature radius evaluation for polymer optical fiber curvature sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leal-Junior, Arnaldo G.; Frizera, Anselmo; José Pontes, Maria

    2018-03-01

    Polymer optical fibers (POFs) are suitable for applications such as curvature sensors, strain, temperature, liquid level, among others. However, for enhancing sensitivity, many polymer optical fiber curvature sensors based on intensity variation require a lateral section. Lateral section length, depth, and surface roughness have great influence on the sensor sensitivity, hysteresis, and linearity. Moreover, the sensor curvature radius increase the stress on the fiber, which leads on variation of the sensor behavior. This paper presents the analysis relating the curvature radius and lateral section length, depth and surface roughness with the sensor sensitivity, hysteresis and linearity for a POF curvature sensor. Results show a strong correlation between the decision parameters behavior and the performance for sensor applications based on intensity variation. Furthermore, there is a trade-off among the sensitive zone length, depth, surface roughness, and curvature radius with the sensor desired performance parameters, which are minimum hysteresis, maximum sensitivity, and maximum linearity. The optimization of these parameters is applied to obtain a sensor with sensitivity of 20.9 mV/°, linearity of 0.9992 and hysteresis below 1%, which represent a better performance of the sensor when compared with the sensor without the optimization.

  5. Combining Two Methods of Global Sensitivity Analysis to Investigate MRSA Nasal Carriage Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarrett, Angela M; Cogan, N G; Hussaini, M Y

    2017-10-01

    We apply two different sensitivity techniques to a model of bacterial colonization of the anterior nares to better understand the dynamics of Staphylococcus aureus nasal carriage. Specifically, we use partial rank correlation coefficients to investigate sensitivity as a function of time and identify a reduced model with fewer than half of the parameters of the full model. The reduced model is used for the calculation of Sobol' indices to identify interacting parameters by their additional effects indices. Additionally, we found that the model captures an interesting characteristic of the biological phenomenon related to the initial population size of the infection; only two parameters had any significant additional effects, and these parameters have biological evidence suggesting they are connected but not yet completely understood. Sensitivity is often applied to elucidate model robustness, but we show that combining sensitivity measures can lead to synergistic insight into both model and biological structures.

  6. Relative sensitivities of DCE-MRI pharmacokinetic parameters to arterial input function (AIF) scaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xin; Cai, Yu; Moloney, Brendan; Chen, Yiyi; Huang, Wei; Woods, Mark; Coakley, Fergus V.; Rooney, William D.; Garzotto, Mark G.; Springer, Charles S.

    2016-08-01

    Dynamic-Contrast-Enhanced Magnetic Resonance Imaging (DCE-MRI) has been used widely for clinical applications. Pharmacokinetic modeling of DCE-MRI data that extracts quantitative contrast reagent/tissue-specific model parameters is the most investigated method. One of the primary challenges in pharmacokinetic analysis of DCE-MRI data is accurate and reliable measurement of the arterial input function (AIF), which is the driving force behind all pharmacokinetics. Because of effects such as inflow and partial volume averaging, AIF measured from individual arteries sometimes require amplitude scaling for better representation of the blood contrast reagent (CR) concentration time-courses. Empirical approaches like blinded AIF estimation or reference tissue AIF derivation can be useful and practical, especially when there is no clearly visible blood vessel within the imaging field-of-view (FOV). Similarly, these approaches generally also require magnitude scaling of the derived AIF time-courses. Since the AIF varies among individuals even with the same CR injection protocol and the perfect scaling factor for reconstructing the ground truth AIF often remains unknown, variations in estimated pharmacokinetic parameters due to varying AIF scaling factors are of special interest. In this work, using simulated and real prostate cancer DCE-MRI data, we examined parameter variations associated with AIF scaling. Our results show that, for both the fast-exchange-limit (FXL) Tofts model and the water exchange sensitized fast-exchange-regime (FXR) model, the commonly fitted CR transfer constant (Ktrans) and the extravascular, extracellular volume fraction (ve) scale nearly proportionally with the AIF, whereas the FXR-specific unidirectional cellular water efflux rate constant, kio, and the CR intravasation rate constant, kep, are both AIF scaling insensitive. This indicates that, for DCE-MRI of prostate cancer and possibly other cancers, kio and kep may be more suitable imaging

  7. A parameter estimation and identifiability analysis methodology applied to a street canyon air pollution model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottosen, T. B.; Ketzel, Matthias; Skov, H.

    2016-01-01

    Mathematical models are increasingly used in environmental science thus increasing the importance of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. In the present study, an iterative parameter estimation and identifiability analysis methodology is applied to an atmospheric model – the Operational Street...... of the identifiability analysis, showed that some model parameters were significantly more sensitive than others. The application of the determined optimal parameter values was shown to successfully equilibrate the model biases among the individual streets and species. It was as well shown that the frequentist approach...

  8. Prior Sensitivity Analysis in Default Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Erp, Sara; Mulder, Joris; Oberski, Daniel L

    2017-11-27

    Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) has recently gained popularity because it enables researchers to fit complex models and solve some of the issues often encountered in classical maximum likelihood estimation, such as nonconvergence and inadmissible solutions. An important component of any Bayesian analysis is the prior distribution of the unknown model parameters. Often, researchers rely on default priors, which are constructed in an automatic fashion without requiring substantive prior information. However, the prior can have a serious influence on the estimation of the model parameters, which affects the mean squared error, bias, coverage rates, and quantiles of the estimates. In this article, we investigate the performance of three different default priors: noninformative improper priors, vague proper priors, and empirical Bayes priors-with the latter being novel in the BSEM literature. Based on a simulation study, we find that these three default BSEM methods may perform very differently, especially with small samples. A careful prior sensitivity analysis is therefore needed when performing a default BSEM analysis. For this purpose, we provide a practical step-by-step guide for practitioners to conducting a prior sensitivity analysis in default BSEM. Our recommendations are illustrated using a well-known case study from the structural equation modeling literature, and all code for conducting the prior sensitivity analysis is available in the online supplemental materials. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  9. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of environmental transport models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Margulies, T.S.; Lancaster, L.E.

    1985-01-01

    An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been made of the CRAC-2 (Calculations of Reactor Accident Consequences) atmospheric transport and deposition models. Robustness and uncertainty aspects of air and ground deposited material and the relative contribution of input and model parameters were systematically studied. The underlying data structures were investigated using a multiway layout of factors over specified ranges generated via a Latin hypercube sampling scheme. The variables selected in our analysis include: weather bin, dry deposition velocity, rain washout coefficient/rain intensity, duration of release, heat content, sigma-z (vertical) plume dispersion parameter, sigma-y (crosswind) plume dispersion parameter, and mixing height. To determine the contributors to the output variability (versus distance from the site) step-wise regression analyses were performed on transformations of the spatial concentration patterns simulated. 27 references, 2 figures, 3 tables

  10. Global sensitivity analysis of DRAINMOD-FOREST, an integrated forest ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiying Tian; Mohamed A. Youssef; Devendra M. Amatya; Eric D. Vance

    2014-01-01

    Global sensitivity analysis is a useful tool to understand process-based ecosystem models by identifying key parameters and processes controlling model predictions. This study reported a comprehensive global sensitivity analysis for DRAINMOD-FOREST, an integrated model for simulating water, carbon (C), and nitrogen (N) cycles and plant growth in lowland forests. The...

  11. Screening design for model sensitivity studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welsh, James P.; Koenig, George G.; Bruce, Dorothy

    1997-07-01

    This paper describes a different approach to sensitivity studies for environmental, including atmospheric, physics models. The sensitivity studies were performed on a multispectral environmental data and scene generation capability. The capability includes environmental physics models that are used to generate data and scenes for simulation of environmental materials, features, and conditions, such as trees, clouds, soils, and snow. These studies were performed because it is difficult to obtain input data for many of the environmental variables. The problem to solve is to determine which of the 100 or so input variables, used by the generation capability, are the most important. These sensitivity studies focused on the generation capabilities needed to predict and evaluate the performance of sensor systems operating in the infrared portions of the electromagnetic spectrum. The sensitivity study approach described uses a screening design. Screening designs are analytical techniques that use a fraction of all of the combinations of the potential input variables and conditions to determine which are the most important. Specifically a 20-run Plackett-Burman screening design was used to study the sensitivity of eight data and scene generation capability computed response variables to 11 selected input variables. This is a two-level design, meaning that the range of conditions is represented by two different values for each of the 11 selected variables. The eight response variables used were maximum, minimum, range, and mode of the model-generated temperature and radiance values. The result is that six of the 11 input variables (soil moisture, solar loading, roughness length, relative humidity, surface albedo, and surface emissivity) had a statistically significant effect on the response variables.

  12. Models for setting ATM parameter values

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blaabjerg, Søren; Gravey, A.; Romæuf, L.

    1996-01-01

    presents approximate methods and discusses their applicability. We then discuss the problem of obtaining traffic characteristic values for a connection that has crossed a series of switching nodes. This problem is particularly relevant for the traffic contract components corresponding to ICIs...... (CDV) tolerance(s). The values taken by these traffic parameters characterize the so-called ''Worst Case Traffic'' that is used by CAC procedures for accepting a new connection and allocating resources to it. Conformance to the negotiated traffic characteristics is defined, at the ingress User...... essential to set traffic characteristic values that are relevant to the considered cell stream, and that ensure that the amount of non-conforming traffic is small. Using a queueing model representation for the GCRA formalism, several methods are available for choosing the traffic characteristics. This paper...

  13. Adjoint Parameter Sensitivity Analysis for the Hydrodynamic Lattice Boltzmann Method with Applications to Design Optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pingen, Georg; Evgrafov, Anton; Maute, Kurt

    2009-01-01

    We present an adjoint parameter sensitivity analysis formulation and solution strategy for the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM). The focus is on design optimization applications, in particular topology optimization. The lattice Boltzmann method is briefly described with an in-depth discussion of so...

  14. Sensitivity Study on Thermal Hydraulic Parameters of Research Reactor with Plate Type Fuel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chae, Hee Taek; Park, Jong Hark; Park, Cheol [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2009-05-15

    This paper presents the preliminary core thermal hydraulic characteristics and safety margins for various core flow rates, core pressures, core inlet temperatures and fuel channel powers for a plate type fuel core with 47 MW power. These sensitivity studies were performed to determine the design values for the thermal hydraulic parameters.

  15. Sensitivity analysis of large system of chemical kinetic parameters for engine combustion simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hsieh, H; Sanz-Argent, J; Petitpas, G; Havstad, M; Flowers, D

    2012-04-19

    In this study, the authors applied the state-of-the art sensitivity methods to downselect system parameters from 4000+ to 8, (23000+ -> 4000+ -> 84 -> 8). This analysis procedure paves the way for future works: (1) calibrate the system response using existed experimental observations, and (2) predict future experiment results, using the calibrated system.

  16. Efficient computation of parameter sensitivities of discrete stochastic chemical reaction networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rathinam, Muruhan; Sheppard, Patrick W.; Khammash, Mustafa

    2010-01-01

    Parametric sensitivity of biochemical networks is an indispensable tool for studying system robustness properties, estimating network parameters, and identifying targets for drug therapy. For discrete stochastic representations of biochemical networks where Monte Carlo methods are commonly used, sensitivity analysis can be particularly challenging, as accurate finite difference computations of sensitivity require a large number of simulations for both nominal and perturbed values of the parameters. In this paper we introduce the common random number (CRN) method in conjunction with Gillespie's stochastic simulation algorithm, which exploits positive correlations obtained by using CRNs for nominal and perturbed parameters. We also propose a new method called the common reaction path (CRP) method, which uses CRNs together with the random time change representation of discrete state Markov processes due to Kurtz to estimate the sensitivity via a finite difference approximation applied to coupled reaction paths that emerge naturally in this representation. While both methods reduce the variance of the estimator significantly compared to independent random number finite difference implementations, numerical evidence suggests that the CRP method achieves a greater variance reduction. We also provide some theoretical basis for the superior performance of CRP. The improved accuracy of these methods allows for much more efficient sensitivity estimation. In two example systems reported in this work, speedup factors greater than 300 and 10 000 are demonstrated.

  17. Sensitivity analysis of efficiency thermal energy storage on selected rock mass and grout parameters using design of experiment method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wołoszyn, Jerzy; Gołaś, Andrzej

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Paper propose a new methodology to sensitivity study of underground thermal storage. • Using MDF model and DOE technique significantly shorter of calculations time. • Calculation of one time step was equal to approximately 57 s. • Sensitivity study cover five thermo-physical parameters. • Conductivity of rock mass and grout material have a significant impact on efficiency. - Abstract: The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of selected parameters on the efficiency of underground thermal energy storage. In this paper, besides thermal conductivity, the effect of such parameters as specific heat, density of the rock mass, thermal conductivity and specific heat of grout material was investigated. Implementation of this objective requires the use of an efficient computational method. The aim of the research was achieved by using a new numerical model, Multi Degree of Freedom (MDF), as developed by the authors and Design of Experiment (DoE) techniques with a response surface. The presented methodology can significantly reduce the time that is needed for research and to determine the effect of various parameters on the efficiency of underground thermal energy storage. Preliminary results of the research confirmed that thermal conductivity of the rock mass has the greatest impact on the efficiency of underground thermal energy storage, and that other parameters also play quite significant role

  18. Generalization of parameters in the storage–discharge relation for a low flow based on the hydrological analysis of sensitivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Fujimura

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The storage-discharge relations have been widely used for water resource management and have led to reliable estimation of the impact of climate change on water resources. In a previous study, we carried out a sensitivity analysis of the parameters in a discharge-storage relation in the form of a power function and found that the optimum parameters can be characterized by an exponential function (Fujimura et al., 2014. The aim of this study is to extend the previous study to clarify the properties of the parameters in the storage–discharge relations by carrying out a sensitivity analysis of efficiency using a hydrological model. The study basins are four mountainous basins in Japan with different climates and geologies. The results confirm that the two parameters in the storage–discharge relations can be expressed in an inversely proportional relationship. In addition, we can conveniently assume a practical function for the storage–discharge relations where only one parameter is used on the basis of the new relationship between the two parameters.

  19. Applying incentive sensitization models to behavioral addiction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rømer Thomsen, Kristine; Fjorback, Lone; Møller, Arne

    2014-01-01

    The incentive sensitization theory is a promising model for understanding the mechanisms underlying drug addiction, and has received support in animal and human studies. So far the theory has not been applied to the case of behavioral addictions like Gambling Disorder, despite sharing clinical...... symptoms and underlying neurobiology. We examine the relevance of this theory for Gambling Disorder and point to predictions for future studies. The theory promises a significant contribution to the understanding of behavioral addiction and opens new avenues for treatment....

  20. Precipitates/Salts Model Sensitivity Calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mariner, P.

    2001-01-01

    The objective and scope of this calculation is to assist Performance Assessment Operations and the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) Department in modeling the geochemical effects of evaporation on potential seepage waters within a potential repository drift. This work is developed and documented using procedure AP-3.12Q, ''Calculations'', in support of ''Technical Work Plan For Engineered Barrier System Department Modeling and Testing FY 02 Work Activities'' (BSC 2001a). The specific objective of this calculation is to examine the sensitivity and uncertainties of the Precipitates/Salts model. The Precipitates/Salts model is documented in an Analysis/Model Report (AMR), ''In-Drift Precipitates/Salts Analysis'' (BSC 2001b). The calculation in the current document examines the effects of starting water composition, mineral suppressions, and the fugacity of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) on the chemical evolution of water in the drift

  1. Sensitivity analysis of effective population size to demographic parameters in house sparrow populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stubberud, Marlene Waege; Myhre, Ane Marlene; Holand, Håkon; Kvalnes, Thomas; Ringsby, Thor Harald; Saether, Bernt-Erik; Jensen, Henrik

    2017-05-01

    The ratio between the effective and the census population size, Ne/N, is an important measure of the long-term viability and sustainability of a population. Understanding which demographic processes that affect Ne/N most will improve our understanding of how genetic drift and the probability of fixation of alleles is affected by demography. This knowledge may also be of vital importance in management of endangered populations and species. Here, we use data from 13 natural populations of house sparrow (Passer domesticus) in Norway to calculate the demographic parameters that determine Ne/N. Using the global variance-based Sobol' method for the sensitivity analyses, we found that Ne/N was most sensitive to demographic variance, especially among older individuals. Furthermore, the individual reproductive values (that determine the demographic variance) were most sensitive to variation in fecundity. Our results draw attention to the applicability of sensitivity analyses in population management and conservation. For population management aiming to reduce the loss of genetic variation, a sensitivity analysis may indicate the demographic parameters towards which resources should be focused. The result of such an analysis may depend on the life history and mating system of the population or species under consideration, because the vital rates and sex-age classes that Ne/N is most sensitive to may change accordingly. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Study of the methodology for sensitivity calculations of fast reactors integral parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renke, C.A.C.

    1981-06-01

    A study of the methodology for sensitivity calculations of integral parameters of fast reactors for the adjustment of multigroup cross sections is presented. A description of several existent methods and theories is given, with special emphasis being regarded to variational perturbation theory, integrant of the sensitivity code VARI-1D used in this work. Two calculational systems are defined and a set of procedures and criteria is structured gathering the necessary conditions for the determination of the sensitivity coefficients. These coefficients are then computed by both the direct method and the variational perturbation theory. A reasonable number of sensitivity coefficients are computed and analyzed for three fast critical assemblies, covering a range of special interest of the spectrum. These coefficients are determined for severa integral parameters, for the capture and fission cross sections of the U-238 and Pu-239, covering all the energy up to 14.5 MeV. The nuclear data used were obtained the CARNAVAL II calculational system of the Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear. An optimization for sensitivity computations in a chainned sequence of procedures is made, yielding the sensitivities in the energy macrogroups as the final stage. (Author) [pt

  3. Mass balance model parameter transferability on a tropical glacier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurgiser, Wolfgang; Mölg, Thomas; Nicholson, Lindsey; Kaser, Georg

    2013-04-01

    The mass balance and melt water production of glaciers is of particular interest in the Peruvian Andes where glacier melt water has markedly increased water supply during the pronounced dry seasons in recent decades. However, the melt water contribution from glaciers is projected to decrease with appreciable negative impacts on the local society within the coming decades. Understanding mass balance processes on tropical glaciers is a prerequisite for modeling present and future glacier runoff. As a first step towards this aim we applied a process-based surface mass balance model in order to calculate observed ablation at two stakes in the ablation zone of Shallap Glacier (4800 m a.s.l., 9°S) in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Under the tropical climate, the snow line migrates very frequently across most of the ablation zone all year round causing large temporal and spatial variations of glacier surface conditions and related ablation. Consequently, pronounced differences between the two chosen stakes and the two years were observed. Hourly records of temperature, humidity, wind speed, short wave incoming radiation, and precipitation are available from an automatic weather station (AWS) on the moraine near the glacier for the hydrological years 2006/07 and 2007/08 while stake readings are available at intervals of between 14 to 64 days. To optimize model parameters, we used 1000 model simulations in which the most sensitive model parameters were varied randomly within their physically meaningful ranges. The modeled surface height change was evaluated against the two stake locations in the lower ablation zone (SH11, 4760m) and in the upper ablation zone (SH22, 4816m), respectively. The optimal parameter set for each point achieved good model skill but if we transfer the best parameter combination from one stake site to the other stake site model errors increases significantly. The same happens if we optimize the model parameters for each year individually and transfer

  4. Dengue human infection model performance parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endy, Timothy P

    2014-06-15

    Dengue is a global health problem and of concern to travelers and deploying military personnel with development and licensure of an effective tetravalent dengue vaccine a public health priority. The dengue viruses (DENVs) are mosquito-borne flaviviruses transmitted by infected Aedes mosquitoes. Illness manifests across a clinical spectrum with severe disease characterized by intravascular volume depletion and hemorrhage. DENV illness results from a complex interaction of viral properties and host immune responses. Dengue vaccine development efforts are challenged by immunologic complexity, lack of an adequate animal model of disease, absence of an immune correlate of protection, and only partially informative immunogenicity assays. A dengue human infection model (DHIM) will be an essential tool in developing potential dengue vaccines or antivirals. The potential performance parameters needed for a DHIM to support vaccine or antiviral candidates are discussed. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  5. Dimensionality reduction of RKHS model parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taouali, Okba; Elaissi, Ilyes; Messaoud, Hassani

    2015-07-01

    This paper proposes a new method to reduce the parameter number of models developed in the Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS). In fact, this number is equal to the number of observations used in the learning phase which is assumed to be high. The proposed method entitled Reduced Kernel Partial Least Square (RKPLS) consists on approximating the retained latent components determined using the Kernel Partial Least Square (KPLS) method by their closest observation vectors. The paper proposes the design and the comparative study of the proposed RKPLS method and the Support Vector Machines on Regression (SVR) technique. The proposed method is applied to identify a nonlinear Process Trainer PT326 which is a physical process available in our laboratory. Moreover as a thermal process with large time response may help record easily effective observations which contribute to model identification. Compared to the SVR technique, the results from the proposed RKPLS method are satisfactory. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Sensitivity Analysis of the Bone Fracture Risk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewandowski, Beth; Myers, Jerry; Sibonga, Jean Diane

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: The probability of bone fracture during and after spaceflight is quantified to aid in mission planning, to determine required astronaut fitness standards and training requirements and to inform countermeasure research and design. Probability is quantified with a probabilistic modeling approach where distributions of model parameter values, instead of single deterministic values, capture the parameter variability within the astronaut population and fracture predictions are probability distributions with a mean value and an associated uncertainty. Because of this uncertainty, the model in its current state cannot discern an effect of countermeasures on fracture probability, for example between use and non-use of bisphosphonates or between spaceflight exercise performed with the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED) or on devices prior to installation of ARED on the International Space Station. This is thought to be due to the inability to measure key contributors to bone strength, for example, geometry and volumetric distributions of bone mass, with areal bone mineral density (BMD) measurement techniques. To further the applicability of model, we performed a parameter sensitivity study aimed at identifying those parameter uncertainties that most effect the model forecasts in order to determine what areas of the model needed enhancements for reducing uncertainty. Methods: The bone fracture risk model (BFxRM), originally published in (Nelson et al) is a probabilistic model that can assess the risk of astronaut bone fracture. This is accomplished by utilizing biomechanical models to assess the applied loads; utilizing models of spaceflight BMD loss in at-risk skeletal locations; quantifying bone strength through a relationship between areal BMD and bone failure load; and relating fracture risk index (FRI), the ratio of applied load to bone strength, to fracture probability. There are many factors associated with these calculations including

  7. Sensitivity Analysis of Launch Vehicle Debris Risk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gee, Ken; Lawrence, Scott L.

    2010-01-01

    As part of an analysis of the loss of crew risk associated with an ascent abort system for a manned launch vehicle, a model was developed to predict the impact risk of the debris resulting from an explosion of the launch vehicle on the crew module. The model consisted of a debris catalog describing the number, size and imparted velocity of each piece of debris, a method to compute the trajectories of the debris and a method to calculate the impact risk given the abort trajectory of the crew module. The model provided a point estimate of the strike probability as a function of the debris catalog, the time of abort and the delay time between the abort and destruction of the launch vehicle. A study was conducted to determine the sensitivity of the strike probability to the various model input parameters and to develop a response surface model for use in the sensitivity analysis of the overall ascent abort risk model. The results of the sensitivity analysis and the response surface model are presented in this paper.

  8. Parameter optimization method for the water quality dynamic model based on data-driven theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Shuxiu; Han, Songlin; Sun, Zhaochen

    2015-09-15

    Parameter optimization is important for developing a water quality dynamic model. In this study, we applied data-driven method to select and optimize parameters for a complex three-dimensional water quality model. First, a data-driven model was developed to train the response relationship between phytoplankton and environmental factors based on the measured data. Second, an eight-variable water quality dynamic model was established and coupled to a physical model. Parameter sensitivity analysis was investigated by changing parameter values individually in an assigned range. The above results served as guidelines for the control parameter selection and the simulated result verification. Finally, using the data-driven model to approximate the computational water quality model, we employed the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm to optimize the control parameters. The optimization routines and results were analyzed and discussed based on the establishment of the water quality model in Xiangshan Bay (XSB). Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Investigation, sensitivity analysis, and multi-objective optimization of effective parameters on temperature and force in robotic drilling cortical bone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tahmasbi, Vahid; Ghoreishi, Majid; Zolfaghari, Mojtaba

    2017-11-01

    The bone drilling process is very prominent in orthopedic surgeries and in the repair of bone fractures. It is also very common in dentistry and bone sampling operations. Due to the complexity of bone and the sensitivity of the process, bone drilling is one of the most important and sensitive processes in biomedical engineering. Orthopedic surgeries can be improved using robotic systems and mechatronic tools. The most crucial problem during drilling is an unwanted increase in process temperature (higher than 47 °C), which causes thermal osteonecrosis or cell death and local burning of the bone tissue. Moreover, imposing higher forces to the bone may lead to breaking or cracking and consequently cause serious damage. In this study, a mathematical second-order linear regression model as a function of tool drilling speed, feed rate, tool diameter, and their effective interactions is introduced to predict temperature and force during the bone drilling process. This model can determine the maximum speed of surgery that remains within an acceptable temperature range. Moreover, for the first time, using designed experiments, the bone drilling process was modeled, and the drilling speed, feed rate, and tool diameter were optimized. Then, using response surface methodology and applying a multi-objective optimization, drilling force was minimized to sustain an acceptable temperature range without damaging the bone or the surrounding tissue. In addition, for the first time, Sobol statistical sensitivity analysis is used to ascertain the effect of process input parameters on process temperature and force. The results show that among all effective input parameters, tool rotational speed, feed rate, and tool diameter have the highest influence on process temperature and force, respectively. The behavior of each output parameters with variation in each input parameter is further investigated. Finally, a multi-objective optimization has been performed considering all the

  10. Sensitivity analysis of infectious disease models: methods, advances and their application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jianyong; Dhingra, Radhika; Gambhir, Manoj; Remais, Justin V.

    2013-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis (SA) can aid in identifying influential model parameters and optimizing model structure, yet infectious disease modelling has yet to adopt advanced SA techniques that are capable of providing considerable insights over traditional methods. We investigate five global SA methods—scatter plots, the Morris and Sobol’ methods, Latin hypercube sampling-partial rank correlation coefficient and the sensitivity heat map method—and detail their relative merits and pitfalls when applied to a microparasite (cholera) and macroparasite (schistosomaisis) transmission model. The methods investigated yielded similar results with respect to identifying influential parameters, but offered specific insights that vary by method. The classical methods differed in their ability to provide information on the quantitative relationship between parameters and model output, particularly over time. The heat map approach provides information about the group sensitivity of all model state variables, and the parameter sensitivity spectrum obtained using this method reveals the sensitivity of all state variables to each parameter over the course of the simulation period, especially valuable for expressing the dynamic sensitivity of a microparasite epidemic model to its parameters. A summary comparison is presented to aid infectious disease modellers in selecting appropriate methods, with the goal of improving model performance and design. PMID:23864497

  11. Distributed Evaluation of Local Sensitivity Analysis (DELSA), with application to hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakovec, O.; Hill, Mary C.; Clark, M.P.; Weerts, A. H.; Teuling, A. J.; Uijlenhoet, R.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a hybrid local-global sensitivity analysis method termed the Distributed Evaluation of Local Sensitivity Analysis (DELSA), which is used here to identify important and unimportant parameters and evaluate how model parameter importance changes as parameter values change. DELSA uses derivative-based “local” methods to obtain the distribution of parameter sensitivity across the parameter space, which promotes consideration of sensitivity analysis results in the context of simulated dynamics. This work presents DELSA, discusses how it relates to existing methods, and uses two hydrologic test cases to compare its performance with the popular global, variance-based Sobol' method. The first test case is a simple nonlinear reservoir model with two parameters. The second test case involves five alternative “bucket-style” hydrologic models with up to 14 parameters applied to a medium-sized catchment (200 km2) in the Belgian Ardennes. Results show that in both examples, Sobol' and DELSA identify similar important and unimportant parameters, with DELSA enabling more detailed insight at much lower computational cost. For example, in the real-world problem the time delay in runoff is the most important parameter in all models, but DELSA shows that for about 20% of parameter sets it is not important at all and alternative mechanisms and parameters dominate. Moreover, the time delay was identified as important in regions producing poor model fits, whereas other parameters were identified as more important in regions of the parameter space producing better model fits. The ability to understand how parameter importance varies through parameter space is critical to inform decisions about, for example, additional data collection and model development. The ability to perform such analyses with modest computational requirements provides exciting opportunities to evaluate complicated models as well as many alternative models.

  12. Distributed Evaluation of Local Sensitivity Analysis (DELSA), with application to hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakovec, O.; Hill, M. C.; Clark, M. P.; Weerts, A. H.; Teuling, A. J.; Uijlenhoet, R.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a hybrid local-global sensitivity analysis method termed the Distributed Evaluation of Local Sensitivity Analysis (DELSA), which is used here to identify important and unimportant parameters and evaluate how model parameter importance changes as parameter values change. DELSA uses derivative-based "local" methods to obtain the distribution of parameter sensitivity across the parameter space, which promotes consideration of sensitivity analysis results in the context of simulated dynamics. This work presents DELSA, discusses how it relates to existing methods, and uses two hydrologic test cases to compare its performance with the popular global, variance-based Sobol' method. The first test case is a simple nonlinear reservoir model with two parameters. The second test case involves five alternative "bucket-style" hydrologic models with up to 14 parameters applied to a medium-sized catchment (200 km2) in the Belgian Ardennes. Results show that in both examples, Sobol' and DELSA identify similar important and unimportant parameters, with DELSA enabling more detailed insight at much lower computational cost. For example, in the real-world problem the time delay in runoff is the most important parameter in all models, but DELSA shows that for about 20% of parameter sets it is not important at all and alternative mechanisms and parameters dominate. Moreover, the time delay was identified as important in regions producing poor model fits, whereas other parameters were identified as more important in regions of the parameter space producing better model fits. The ability to understand how parameter importance varies through parameter space is critical to inform decisions about, for example, additional data collection and model development. The ability to perform such analyses with modest computational requirements provides exciting opportunities to evaluate complicated models as well as many alternative models.

  13. Sensitivity of SBLOCA analysis to model nodalization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, C.; Ito, T.; Abramson, P.B.

    1983-01-01

    The recent Semiscale test S-UT-8 indicates the possibility for primary liquid to hang up in the steam generators during a SBLOCA, permitting core uncovery prior to loop-seal clearance. In analysis of Small Break Loss of Coolant Accidents with RELAP5, it is found that resultant transient behavior is quite sensitive to the selection of nodalization for the steam generators. Although global parameters such as integrated mass loss, primary inventory and primary pressure are relatively insensitive to the nodalization, it is found that the predicted distribution of inventory around the primary is significantly affected by nodalization. More detailed nodalization predicts that more of the inventory tends to remain in the steam generators, resulting in less inventory in the reactor vessel and therefore causing earlier and more severe core uncovery

  14. Sensitivity Analysis of Parameters Governing the Recovery of Methane from Natural Gas Hydrate Reservoirs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Giraldo

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Naturally occurring gas hydrates are regarded as an important future source of energy and considerable efforts are currently being invested to develop methods for an economically viable recovery of this resource. The recovery of natural gas from gas hydrate deposits has been studied by a number of researchers. Depressurization of the reservoir is seen as a favorable method because of its relatively low energy requirements. While lowering the pressure in the production well seems to be a straight forward approach to destabilize methane hydrates, the intrinsic kinetics of CH4-hydrate decomposition and fluid flow lead to complex processes of mass and heat transfer within the deposit. In order to develop a better understanding of the processes and conditions governing the production of methane from methane hydrates it is necessary to study the sensitivity of gas production to the effects of factors such as pressure, temperature, thermal conductivity, permeability, porosity on methane recovery from naturally occurring gas hydrates. A simplified model is the base for an ensemble of reservoir simulations to study which parameters govern productivity and how these factors might interact.

  15. A sensitivity driven meta-model optimisation tool for hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oppel, Henning; Schumann, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    The calibration of rainfall-runoff-models containing a high number of parameters can be done readily by the use of different calibration methods and algorithms. Monte-Carlo Methods, gradient based search algorithms and others are well-known and established in hydrological sciences. Thus, the calibration of a model for a desired application is not a challenging task, but retaining regional comparability and process integrity is, due to the equifinality-problem, a prevailing topic. This set of issues is mainly a result of the overdeterminaton given the high number of parameters in rainfall-runoff-models, where different parameters are affecting the same facet of model performance (i.e. runoff volume, variance and timing). In this study a calibration strategy is presented which considers model sensitivity as well as parameter interaction and different criteria of model performance. At first a range of valid values for each model parameter was defined and the individual effect on model performance within the defined parameter range was evaluated. By use of the gained knowledge a meta-model, lumping different parameters affecting the same facet of model performance, was established. Hereafter, the parsimonious meta-model, where each parameter is assigned to a nearly disjoint facet of model performance is optimized. By retransformation of the lumped parameters to the original model, a parametrisation for the original model is obtained. An application of this routine to a set of watersheds in the eastern part of Germany displays the benefits of the routine. Results of the meta-parametrised model are compared to parametrisations obtained from common calibration routines in a validation study and process orientated numerical experiment.

  16. Sensitivity of Austempering Heat Treatment of Ductile Irons to Changes in Process Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boccardo, A. D.; Dardati, P. M.; Godoy, L. A.; Celentano, D. J.

    2018-03-01

    Austempered ductile iron (ADI) is frequently obtained by means of a three-step austempering heat treatment. The parameters of this process play a crucial role on the microstructure of the final product. This paper considers the influence of some process parameters (i.e., the initial microstructure of ductile iron and the thermal cycle) on key features of the heat treatment (such as minimum required time for austenitization and austempering and microstructure of the final product). A computational simulation of the austempering heat treatment is reported in this work, which accounts for a coupled thermo-metallurgical behavior in terms of the evolution of temperature at the scale of the part being investigated (the macroscale) and the evolution of phases at the scale of microconstituents (the microscale). The paper focuses on the sensitivity of the process by looking at a sensitivity index and scatter plots. The sensitivity indices are determined by using a technique based on the variance of the output. The results of this study indicate that both the initial microstructure and the thermal cycle parameters play a key role in the production of ADI. This work also provides a guideline to help selecting values of the appropriate process parameters to obtain parts with a required microstructural characteristic.

  17. Photovoltaic System Modeling. Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansen, Clifford W. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Martin, Curtis E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-08-01

    We report an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for modeling AC energy from ph otovoltaic systems . Output from a PV system is predicted by a sequence of models. We quantify u ncertainty i n the output of each model using empirical distribution s of each model's residuals. We propagate uncertainty through the sequence of models by sampli ng these distributions to obtain a n empirical distribution of a PV system's output. We consider models that: (1) translate measured global horizontal, direct and global diffuse irradiance to plane - of - array irradiance; (2) estimate effective irradiance; (3) predict cell temperature; (4) estimate DC voltage, current and power ; (5) reduce DC power for losses due to inefficient maximum power point tracking or mismatch among modules; and (6) convert DC to AC power . O ur analysis consider s a notional PV system com prising an array of FirstSolar FS - 387 modules and a 250 kW AC inverter ; we use measured irradiance and weather at Albuquerque, NM. We found the uncertainty in PV syste m output to be relatively small, on the order of 1% for daily energy. We found that unce rtainty in the models for POA irradiance and effective irradiance to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty in predicted daily energy. Our analysis indicates that efforts to reduce the uncertainty in PV system output predictions may yield the greatest improvements by focusing on the POA and effective irradiance models.

  18. Effects of gain medium parameters on the sensitivity of semiconductor ring laser gyroscope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khandelwal, Arpit; Hossein, Y. S.; Syed, Azeemuddin; Sayeh, M. R.; Nayak, Jagannath

    2017-09-01

    The semiconductor gain medium has rich non-linear dynamics and several internal parameters influence the generation and propagation of light through it. With the gain medium being an integral part of semiconductor ring laser gyroscope (SRLG) cavity, its parameters affect the overall performance of the gyro. The effect is further elevated in integrated SRLG due to stronger confinement of charge carriers and photons leading to a more intense interaction between them. In this paper, we evaluate the influence of semiconductor gain medium parameters such as gain saturation coefficient, linewidth, internal quantum efficiency etc. on the sensitivity of bulk fiber-optic SRLG. Ways of controlling these parameters and optimizing their values to enhance the performance of SRLG are also discussed.

  19. Clustering reveals limits of parameter identifiability in multi-parameter models of biochemical dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nienałtowski, Karol; Włodarczyk, Michał; Lipniacki, Tomasz; Komorowski, Michał

    2015-09-29

    Compared to engineering or physics problems, dynamical models in quantitative biology typically depend on a relatively large number of parameters. Progress in developing mathematics to manipulate such multi-parameter models and so enable their efficient interplay with experiments has been slow. Existing solutions are significantly limited by model size. In order to simplify analysis of multi-parameter models a method for clustering of model parameters is proposed. It is based on a derived statistically meaningful measure of similarity between groups of parameters. The measure quantifies to what extend changes in values of some parameters can be compensated by changes in values of other parameters. The proposed methodology provides a natural mathematical language to precisely communicate and visualise effects resulting from compensatory changes in values of parameters. As a results, a relevant insight into identifiability analysis and experimental planning can be obtained. Analysis of NF-κB and MAPK pathway models shows that highly compensative parameters constitute clusters consistent with the network topology. The method applied to examine an exceptionally rich set of published experiments on the NF-κB dynamics reveals that the experiments jointly ensure identifiability of only 60% of model parameters. The method indicates which further experiments should be performed in order to increase the number of identifiable parameters. We currently lack methods that simplify broadly understood analysis of multi-parameter models. The introduced tools depict mutually compensative effects between parameters to provide insight regarding role of individual parameters, identifiability and experimental design. The method can also find applications in related methodological areas of model simplification and parameters estimation.

  20. A New Computationally Frugal Method For Sensitivity Analysis Of Environmental Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakovec, O.; Hill, M. C.; Clark, M. P.; Weerts, A.; Teuling, R.; Borgonovo, E.; Uijlenhoet, R.

    2013-12-01

    Effective and efficient parameter sensitivity analysis methods are crucial to understand the behaviour of complex environmental models and use of models in risk assessment. This paper proposes a new computationally frugal method for analyzing parameter sensitivity: the Distributed Evaluation of Local Sensitivity Analysis (DELSA). The DELSA method can be considered a hybrid of local and global methods, and focuses explicitly on multiscale evaluation of parameter sensitivity across the parameter space. Results of the DELSA method are compared with the popular global, variance-based Sobol' method and the delta method. We assess the parameter sensitivity of both (1) a simple non-linear reservoir model with only two parameters, and (2) five different "bucket-style" hydrologic models applied to a medium-sized catchment (200 km2) in the Belgian Ardennes. Results show that in both the synthetic and real-world examples, the global Sobol' method and the DELSA method provide similar sensitivities, with the DELSA method providing more detailed insight at much lower computational cost. The ability to understand how sensitivity measures vary through parameter space with modest computational requirements provides exciting new opportunities.

  1. Convergence of surface diffusion parameters with model crystal size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Jennifer M.; Voter, Arthur F.

    1994-07-01

    A study of the variation in the calculated quantities for adatom diffusion with respect to the size of the model crystal is presented. The reported quantities include surface diffusion barrier heights, pre-exponential factors, and dynamical correction factors. Embedded atom method (EAM) potentials were used throughout this effort. Both the layer size and the depth of the crystal were found to influence the values of the Arrhenius factors significantly. In particular, exchange type mechanisms required a significantly larger model than standard hopping mechanisms to determine adatom diffusion barriers of equivalent accuracy. The dynamical events that govern the corrections to transition state theory (TST) did not appear to be as sensitive to crystal depth. Suitable criteria for the convergence of the diffusion parameters with regard to the rate properties are illustrated.

  2. Sensitivity Analysis of Depletion Parameters for Heat Load Evaluation of PWR Spent Fuel Storage Pool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, In Young; Lee, Un Chul

    2011-01-01

    As necessity of safety re-evaluation for spent fuel storage facility has emphasized after the Fukushima accident, accuracy improvement of heat load evaluation has become more important to acquire reliable thermal-hydraulic evaluation results. As groundwork, parametric and sensitivity analyses of various storage conditions for Kori Unit 4 spent fuel storage pool and spent fuel depletion parameters such as axial burnup effect, operation history, and specific heat are conducted using ORIGEN2 code. According to heat load evaluation and parametric sensitivity analyses, decay heat of last discharged fuel comprises maximum 80.42% of total heat load of storage facility and there is a negative correlation between effect of depletion parameters and cooling period. It is determined that specific heat is most influential parameter and operation history is secondly influential parameter. And decay heat of just discharged fuel is varied from 0.34 to 1.66 times of average value and decay heat of 1 year cooled fuel is varied from 0.55 to 1.37 times of average value in accordance with change of specific power. Namely depletion parameters can cause large variation in decay heat calculation of short-term cooled fuel. Therefore application of real operation data instead of user selection value is needed to improve evaluation accuracy. It is expected that these results could be used to improve accuracy of heat load assessment and evaluate uncertainty of calculated heat load.

  3. Studying the physics potential of long-baseline experiments in terms of new sensitivity parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, Mandip

    2016-01-01

    We investigate physics opportunities to constraint the leptonic CP-violation phase δ CP through numerical analysis of working neutrino oscillation probability parameters, in the context of long-baseline experiments. Numerical analysis of two parameters, the “transition probability δ CP phase sensitivity parameter (A M )” and the “CP-violation probability δ CP phase sensitivity parameter (A CP ),” as functions of beam energy and/or baseline have been carried out. It is an elegant technique to broadly analyze different experiments to constrain the δ CP phase and also to investigate the mass hierarchy in the leptonic sector. Positive and negative values of the parameter A CP , corresponding to either hierarchy in the specific beam energy ranges, could be a very promising way to explore the mass hierarchy and δ CP phase. The keys to more robust bounds on the δ CP phase are improvements of the involved detection techniques to explore lower energies and relatively long baseline regions with better experimental accuracy.

  4. Applying incentive sensitization models to behavioral addiction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rømer Thomsen, Kristine; Fjorback, Lone O; Møller, Arne; Lou, Hans C

    2014-09-01

    The incentive sensitization theory is a promising model for understanding the mechanisms underlying drug addiction, and has received support in animal and human studies. So far the theory has not been applied to the case of behavioral addictions like Gambling Disorder, despite sharing clinical symptoms and underlying neurobiology. We examine the relevance of this theory for Gambling Disorder and point to predictions for future studies. The theory promises a significant contribution to the understanding of behavioral addiction and opens new avenues for treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of a polyurethane foam decomposition model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    HOBBS,MICHAEL L.; ROBINSON,DAVID G.

    2000-03-14

    Sensitivity/uncertainty analyses are not commonly performed on complex, finite-element engineering models because the analyses are time consuming, CPU intensive, nontrivial exercises that can lead to deceptive results. To illustrate these ideas, an analytical sensitivity/uncertainty analysis is used to determine the standard deviation and the primary factors affecting the burn velocity of polyurethane foam exposed to firelike radiative boundary conditions. The complex, finite element model has 25 input parameters that include chemistry, polymer structure, and thermophysical properties. The response variable was selected as the steady-state burn velocity calculated as the derivative of the burn front location versus time. The standard deviation of the burn velocity was determined by taking numerical derivatives of the response variable with respect to each of the 25 input parameters. Since the response variable is also a derivative, the standard deviation is essentially determined from a second derivative that is extremely sensitive to numerical noise. To minimize the numerical noise, 50-micron elements and approximately 1-msec time steps were required to obtain stable uncertainty results. The primary effect variable was shown to be the emissivity of the foam.

  6. Stability and Sensitive Analysis of a Model with Delay Quorum Sensing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhonghua Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper formulates a delay model characterizing the competition between bacteria and immune system. The center manifold reduction method and the normal form theory due to Faria and Magalhaes are used to compute the normal form of the model, and the stability of two nonhyperbolic equilibria is discussed. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the growth rate of bacteria is the most sensitive parameter of the threshold parameter R0 and should be targeted in the controlling strategies.

  7. The Effect of Nondeterministic Parameters on Shock-Associated Noise Prediction Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahl, Milo D.; Khavaran, Abbas

    2010-01-01

    Engineering applications for aircraft noise prediction contain models for physical phenomenon that enable solutions to be computed quickly. These models contain parameters that have an uncertainty not accounted for in the solution. To include uncertainty in the solution, nondeterministic computational methods are applied. Using prediction models for supersonic jet broadband shock-associated noise, fixed model parameters are replaced by probability distributions to illustrate one of these methods. The results show the impact of using nondeterministic parameters both on estimating the model output uncertainty and on the model spectral level prediction. In addition, a global sensitivity analysis is used to determine the influence of the model parameters on the output, and to identify the parameters with the least influence on model output.

  8. The identifiability of parameters in a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perk, van der M.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    1997-01-01

    The identifiability of model parameters of a steady state water quality model of the Biebrza River and the resulting variation in model results was examined by applying the Monte Carlo method which combines calibration, identifiability analysis, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis. The

  9. Model-based parameter estimation using cardiovascular response to orthostatic stress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heldt, T.; Shim, E. B.; Kamm, R. D.; Mark, R. G.

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents a cardiovascular model that is capable of simulating the short-term (response to gravitational stress and a gradient-based optimization method that allows for the automated estimation of model parameters from simulated or experimental data. We perform a sensitivity analysis of the transient heart rate response to determine which parameters of the model impact the heart rate dynamics significantly. We subsequently include only those parameters in the estimation routine that impact the transient heart rate dynamics substantially. We apply the estimation algorithm to both simulated and real data and showed that restriction to the 20 most important parameters does not impair our ability to match the data.

  10. Analysis of Model Parameters for a Polymer Filtration Simulator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Brackett-Rozinsky

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We examine a simulation model for polymer extrusion filters and determine its sensitivity to filter parameters. The simulator is a three-dimensional, time-dependent discretization of a coupled system of nonlinear partial differential equations used to model fluid flow and debris transport, along with statistical relationships that define debris distributions and retention probabilities. The flow of polymer fluid, and suspended debris particles, is tracked to determine how well a filter performs and how long it operates before clogging. A filter may have multiple layers, characterized by thickness, porosity, and average pore diameter. In this work, the thickness of each layer is fixed, while the porosities and pore diameters vary for a two-layer and three-layer study. The effects of porosity and average pore diameter on the measures of filter quality are calculated. For the three layer model, these effects are tested for statistical significance using analysis of variance. Furthermore, the effects of each pair of interacting parameters are considered. This allows the detection of complexity, where in changing two aspects of a filter together may generate results substantially different from what occurs when those same aspects change separately. The principal findings indicate that the first layer of a filter is the most important.

  11. Applying Atmospheric Measurements to Constrain Parameters of Terrestrial Source Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyer, E. J.; Kasischke, E. S.; Allen, D. J.

    2004-12-01

    Quantitative inversions of atmospheric measurements have been widely applied to constrain atmospheric budgets of a range of trace gases. Experiments of this type have revealed persistent discrepancies between 'bottom-up' and 'top-down' estimates of source magnitudes. The most common atmospheric inversion uses the absolute magnitude as the sole parameter for each source, and returns the optimal value of that parameter. In order for atmospheric measurements to be useful for improving 'bottom-up' models of terrestrial sources, information about other properties of the sources must be extracted. As the density and quality of atmospheric trace gas measurements improve, examination of higher-order properties of trace gas sources should become possible. Our model of boreal forest fire emissions is parameterized to permit flexible examination of the key uncertainties in this source. Using output from this model together with the UM CTM, we examined the sensitivity of CO concentration measurements made by the MOPITT instrument to various uncertainties in the boreal source: geographic distribution of burned area, fire type (crown fires vs. surface fires), and fuel consumption in above-ground and ground-layer fuels. Our results indicate that carefully designed inversion experiments have the potential to help constrain not only the absolute magnitudes of terrestrial sources, but also the key uncertainties associated with 'bottom-up' estimates of those sources.

  12. Sensitivity Analysis of Fatigue Crack Growth Model for API Steels in Gaseous Hydrogen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amaro, Robert L; Rustagi, Neha; Drexler, Elizabeth S; Slifka, Andrew J

    2014-01-01

    A model to predict fatigue crack growth of API pipeline steels in high pressure gaseous hydrogen has been developed and is presented elsewhere. The model currently has several parameters that must be calibrated for each pipeline steel of interest. This work provides a sensitivity analysis of the model parameters in order to provide (a) insight to the underlying mathematical and mechanistic aspects of the model, and (b) guidance for model calibration of other API steels.

  13. Non-parametric correlative uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis: Application to a Langmuir bimolecular adsorption model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinchao Feng

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available We propose non-parametric methods for both local and global sensitivity analysis of chemical reaction models with correlated parameter dependencies. The developed mathematical and statistical tools are applied to a benchmark Langmuir competitive adsorption model on a close packed platinum surface, whose parameters, estimated from quantum-scale computations, are correlated and are limited in size (small data. The proposed mathematical methodology employs gradient-based methods to compute sensitivity indices. We observe that ranking influential parameters depends critically on whether or not correlations between parameters are taken into account. The impact of uncertainty in the correlation and the necessity of the proposed non-parametric perspective are demonstrated.

  14. Non-parametric correlative uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis: Application to a Langmuir bimolecular adsorption model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Jinchao; Lansford, Joshua; Mironenko, Alexander; Pourkargar, Davood Babaei; Vlachos, Dionisios G.; Katsoulakis, Markos A.

    2018-03-01

    We propose non-parametric methods for both local and global sensitivity analysis of chemical reaction models with correlated parameter dependencies. The developed mathematical and statistical tools are applied to a benchmark Langmuir competitive adsorption model on a close packed platinum surface, whose parameters, estimated from quantum-scale computations, are correlated and are limited in size (small data). The proposed mathematical methodology employs gradient-based methods to compute sensitivity indices. We observe that ranking influential parameters depends critically on whether or not correlations between parameters are taken into account. The impact of uncertainty in the correlation and the necessity of the proposed non-parametric perspective are demonstrated.

  15. Sample Size and Item Parameter Estimation Precision When Utilizing the One-Parameter "Rasch" Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Custer, Michael

    2015-01-01

    This study examines the relationship between sample size and item parameter estimation precision when utilizing the one-parameter model. Item parameter estimates are examined relative to "true" values by evaluating the decline in root mean squared deviation (RMSD) and the number of outliers as sample size increases. This occurs across…

  16. Models for estimating photosynthesis parameters from in situ production profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovač, Žarko; Platt, Trevor; Sathyendranath, Shubha; Antunović, Suzana

    2017-12-01

    The rate of carbon assimilation in phytoplankton primary production models is mathematically prescribed with photosynthesis irradiance functions, which convert a light flux (energy) into a material flux (carbon). Information on this rate is contained in photosynthesis parameters: the initial slope and the assimilation number. The exactness of parameter values is crucial for precise calculation of primary production. Here we use a model of the daily production profile based on a suite of photosynthesis irradiance functions and extract photosynthesis parameters from in situ measured daily production profiles at the Hawaii Ocean Time-series station Aloha. For each function we recover parameter values, establish parameter distributions and quantify model skill. We observe that the choice of the photosynthesis irradiance function to estimate the photosynthesis parameters affects the magnitudes of parameter values as recovered from in situ profiles. We also tackle the problem of parameter exchange amongst the models and the effect it has on model performance. All models displayed little or no bias prior to parameter exchange, but significant bias following parameter exchange. The best model performance resulted from using optimal parameter values. Model formulation was extended further by accounting for spectral effects and deriving a spectral analytical solution for the daily production profile. The daily production profile was also formulated with time dependent growing biomass governed by a growth equation. The work on parameter recovery was further extended by exploring how to extract photosynthesis parameters from information on watercolumn production. It was demonstrated how to estimate parameter values based on a linearization of the full analytical solution for normalized watercolumn production and from the solution itself, without linearization. The paper complements previous works on photosynthesis irradiance models by analysing the skill and consistency of

  17. Parameter dimensionality reduction of a conceptual model for streamflow prediction in Canadian, snowmelt dominated ungauged basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arsenault, Richard; Poissant, Dominique; Brissette, François

    2015-11-01

    This paper evaluated the effects of parametric reduction of a hydrological model on five regionalization methods and 267 catchments in the province of Quebec, Canada. The Sobol' variance-based sensitivity analysis was used to rank the model parameters by their influence on the model results and sequential parameter fixing was performed. The reduction in parameter correlations improved parameter identifiability, however this improvement was found to be minimal and was not transposed in the regionalization mode. It was shown that 11 of the HSAMI models' 23 parameters could be fixed with little or no loss in regionalization skill. The main conclusions were that (1) the conceptual lumped models used in this study did not represent physical processes sufficiently well to warrant parameter reduction for physics-based regionalization methods for the Canadian basins examined and (2) catchment descriptors did not adequately represent the relevant hydrological processes, namely snow accumulation and melt.

  18. Sensitivity Analysis of a Riparian Vegetation Growth Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Nones

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a sensitivity analysis of two main parameters used in a mathematic model able to evaluate the effects of changing hydrology on the growth of riparian vegetation along rivers and its effects on the cross-section width. Due to a lack of data in existing literature, in a past study the schematization proposed here was applied only to two large rivers, assuming steady conditions for the vegetational carrying capacity and coupling the vegetal model with a 1D description of the river morphology. In this paper, the limitation set by steady conditions is overcome, imposing the vegetational evolution dependent upon the initial plant population and the growth rate, which represents the potential growth of the overall vegetation along the watercourse. The sensitivity analysis shows that, regardless of the initial population density, the growth rate can be considered the main parameter defining the development of riparian vegetation, but it results site-specific effects, with significant differences for large and small rivers. Despite the numerous simplifications adopted and the small database analyzed, the comparison between measured and computed river widths shows a quite good capability of the model in representing the typical interactions between riparian vegetation and water flow occurring along watercourses. After a thorough calibration, the relatively simple structure of the code permits further developments and applications to a wide range of alluvial rivers.

  19. Optimizing incomplete sample designs for item response model parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Linden, Willem J.

    Several models for optimizing incomplete sample designs with respect to information on the item parameters are presented. The following cases are considered: (1) known ability parameters; (2) unknown ability parameters; (3) item sets with multiple ability scales; and (4) response models with

  20. Combined calibration and sensitivity analysis for a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perk, van der M.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    1995-01-01

    A study was performed to quantify the error in results of a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland, due to uncertainties in calibrated model parameters. The procedure used in this study combines calibration and sensitivity analysis. Finally,the model was validated to test the model

  1. Modelling of fertilizer drying in a rotary dryer: parametric sensitivity analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. G. Silva

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzed the influence of the following parameters: overall volumetric heat transfer coefficient, coefficient of heat loss, drying rate, specific heat of the solid and specific heat of dry air on the prediction of a model for the fertilizer drying in rotary dryers. The method of parametric sensitivity using an experimental design was employed in this study. All parameters studied significantly affected the responses of the drying model. In general, the model showed greater sensitivity to the parameters drying rate and overall volumetric heat transfer coefficient.

  2. Study on Parameters Modeling of Wind Turbines Using SCADA Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yonglong YAN

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Taking the advantage of the current massive monitoring data from Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA system of wind farm, it is of important significance for anomaly detection, early warning and fault diagnosis to build the data model of state parameters of wind turbines (WTs. The operational conditions and the relationships between the state parameters of wind turbines are complex. It is difficult to establish the model of state parameter accurately, and the modeling method of state parameters of wind turbines considering parameter selection is proposed. Firstly, by analyzing the characteristic of SCADA data, a reasonable range of data and monitoring parameters are chosen. Secondly, neural network algorithm is adapted, and the selection method of input parameters in the model is presented. Generator bearing temperature and cooling air temperature are regarded as target parameters, and the two models are built and input parameters of the models are selected, respectively. Finally, the parameter selection method in this paper and the method using genetic algorithm-partial least square (GA-PLS are analyzed comparatively, and the results show that the proposed methods are correct and effective. Furthermore, the modeling of two parameters illustrate that the method in this paper can applied to other state parameters of wind turbines.

  3. Sensitivity study and parameter optimization of OCD tool for 14nm finFET process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhensheng; Chen, Huiping; Cheng, Shiqiu; Zhan, Yunkun; Huang, Kun; Shi, Yaoming; Xu, Yiping

    2016-03-01

    Optical critical dimension (OCD) measurement has been widely demonstrated as an essential metrology method for monitoring advanced IC process in the technology node of 90 nm and beyond. However, the rapidly shrunk critical dimensions of the semiconductor devices and the increasing complexity of the manufacturing process bring more challenges to OCD. The measurement precision of OCD technology highly relies on the optical hardware configuration, spectral types, and inherently interactions between the incidence of light and various materials with various topological structures, therefore sensitivity analysis and parameter optimization are very critical in the OCD applications. This paper presents a method for seeking the optimum sensitive measurement configuration to enhance the metrology precision and reduce the noise impact to the greatest extent. In this work, the sensitivity of different types of spectra with a series of hardware configurations of incidence angles and azimuth angles were investigated. The optimum hardware measurement configuration and spectrum parameter can be identified. The FinFET structures in the technology node of 14 nm were constructed to validate the algorithm. This method provides guidance to estimate the measurement precision before measuring actual device features and will be beneficial for OCD hardware configuration.

  4. Sensitivity of MRI parameters within intervertebral discs to the severity of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huber, Maxime; Gilbert, Guillaume; Roy, Julien; Parent, Stefan; Labelle, Hubert; Périé, Delphine

    2016-11-01

    To measure magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) parameters including relaxation times (T 1 ρ, T 2 ), magnetization transfer (MT) and diffusion parameters (mean diffusivity [MD], fractional anisotropy [FA]) of intervertebral discs in adolescents with idiopathic scoliosis, and to investigate the sensitivity of these MR parameters to the severity of the spine deformities. Thirteen patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis and three control volunteers with no history of spine disease underwent an MRI acquisition at 3T including the mapping of T 1 ρ, T 2 , MT, MD, and FA. The apical zone included all discs within the scoliotic curve while the control zone was composed of other discs. The severity was analyzed through low (40°) Cobb angles. One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and agglomerative hierarchical clustering (AHC) were performed. Significant differences were found between the apical zone and the control zone for T 2 (P = 0.047), and between low and high Cobb angles for T 2 (P = 0.014) and MT (P = 0.002). AHC showed two distinct clusters, one with mainly low Cobb angles and one with mainly high Cobb angles, for the MRI parameters measured within the apical zone, with an accuracy of 0.9 and a Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) of 0.8. Within the control zone, the AHC showed no clear classification (accuracy of 0.6 and MCC of 0.2). We successfully performed an in vivo multiparametric MRI investigation of young patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. The MRI parameters measured within the intervertebral discs were found to be sensitive to intervertebral disc degeneration occurring with scoliosis and to the severity of scoliosis. J. Magn. Reson. Imaging 2016;44:1123-1131. © 2016 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

  5. Tackifier Mobility in Model Pressure Sensitive Adhesives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiva, Adriana; Li, Xiaoqing

    1997-03-01

    A systematic study of the molecular mobility of tackifier in a pressure sensitive adhesive (PSA) has been done for the first time. The objective is to relate changes in adhesive performance with tackifier loading to tackifier mobility. Study focused first on a model PSA consisting of anionically polymerized polyisoprene (PI) (Mw=300,000 Mw/Mn 1.05) and a single simple tackifier, n-butyl ester of abietic acid. This model system is fully miscible at room temperature, and its tack performance has been studied. Tackifier mobility was measured using Pulsed-Gradient Spin-Echo NMR as a function of tackifier concentration and temperature. The concentration dependence observed for this adhesive with modestly enhanced performance was weak, indicating the tackifier neither acts to plasticize or antiplasticize appreciably. Diffusion in a two-phase system of hydrogenated PI with the same tackifier is similar, though the tack of that adhesive varies much more markedly with composition. In contrast, tackifier mobility varies strongly with composition in a PSA composed of PI with a commercial tackifier chemically similar to the model tackifier, but having a higher molecular weight and glass transition temperature. * Supported in part by US DOD: ARO(DAAH04-93-G-0410)

  6. A Sensitivity Analysis of fMRI Balloon Model

    KAUST Repository

    Zayane, Chadia

    2015-04-22

    Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) allows the mapping of the brain activation through measurements of the Blood Oxygenation Level Dependent (BOLD) contrast. The characterization of the pathway from the input stimulus to the output BOLD signal requires the selection of an adequate hemodynamic model and the satisfaction of some specific conditions while conducting the experiment and calibrating the model. This paper, focuses on the identifiability of the Balloon hemodynamic model. By identifiability, we mean the ability to estimate accurately the model parameters given the input and the output measurement. Previous studies of the Balloon model have somehow added knowledge either by choosing prior distributions for the parameters, freezing some of them, or looking for the solution as a projection on a natural basis of some vector space. In these studies, the identification was generally assessed using event-related paradigms. This paper justifies the reasons behind the need of adding knowledge, choosing certain paradigms, and completing the few existing identifiability studies through a global sensitivity analysis of the Balloon model in the case of blocked design experiment.

  7. Structure and sensitivity analysis of individual-based predator–prey models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Imron, Muhammad Ali; Gergs, Andre; Berger, Uta

    2012-01-01

    The expensive computational cost of sensitivity analyses has hampered the use of these techniques for analysing individual-based models in ecology. A relatively cheap computational cost, referred to as the Morris method, was chosen to assess the relative effects of all parameters on the model’s outputs and to gain insights into predator–prey systems. Structure and results of the sensitivity analysis of the Sumatran tiger model – the Panthera Population Persistence (PPP) and the Notonecta foraging model (NFM) – were compared. Both models are based on a general predation cycle and designed to understand the mechanisms behind the predator–prey interaction being considered. However, the models differ significantly in their complexity and the details of the processes involved. In the sensitivity analysis, parameters that directly contribute to the number of prey items killed were found to be most influential. These were the growth rate of prey and the hunting radius of tigers in the PPP model as well as attack rate parameters and encounter distance of backswimmers in the NFM model. Analysis of distances in both of the models revealed further similarities in the sensitivity of the two individual-based models. The findings highlight the applicability and importance of sensitivity analyses in general, and screening design methods in particular, during early development of ecological individual-based models. Comparison of model structures and sensitivity analyses provides a first step for the derivation of general rules in the design of predator–prey models for both practical conservation and conceptual understanding. - Highlights: ► Structure of predation processes is similar in tiger and backswimmer model. ► The two individual-based models (IBM) differ in space formulations. ► In both models foraging distance is among the sensitive parameters. ► Morris method is applicable for the sensitivity analysis even of complex IBMs.

  8. Sensitivity of Calibrated Parameters and Water Resource Estimates on Different Objective Functions and Optimization Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Delaram Houshmand Kouchi

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The successful application of hydrological models relies on careful calibration and uncertainty analysis. However, there are many different calibration/uncertainty analysis algorithms, and each could be run with different objective functions. In this paper, we highlight the fact that each combination of optimization algorithm-objective functions may lead to a different set of optimum parameters, while having the same performance; this makes the interpretation of dominant hydrological processes in a watershed highly uncertain. We used three different optimization algorithms (SUFI-2, GLUE, and PSO, and eight different objective functions (R2, bR2, NSE, MNS, RSR, SSQR, KGE, and PBIAS in a SWAT model to calibrate the monthly discharges in two watersheds in Iran. The results show that all three algorithms, using the same objective function, produced acceptable calibration results; however, with significantly different parameter ranges. Similarly, an algorithm using different objective functions also produced acceptable calibration results, but with different parameter ranges. The different calibrated parameter ranges consequently resulted in significantly different water resource estimates. Hence, the parameters and the outputs that they produce in a calibrated model are “conditioned” on the choices of the optimization algorithm and objective function. This adds another level of non-negligible uncertainty to watershed models, calling for more attention and investigation in this area.

  9. Parameter and Uncertainty Estimation in Groundwater Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jacob Birk

    The data basis on which groundwater models are constructed is in general very incomplete, and this leads to uncertainty in model outcome. Groundwater models form the basis for many, often costly decisions and if these are to be made on solid grounds, the uncertainty attached to model results must...... be quantified. This study was motivated by the need to estimate the uncertainty involved in groundwater models.Chapter 2 presents an integrated surface/subsurface unstructured finite difference model that was developed and applied to a synthetic case study.The following two chapters concern calibration...... was applied.Capture zone modelling was conducted on a synthetic stationary 3-dimensional flow problem involving river, surface and groundwater flow. Simulated capture zones were illustrated as likelihood maps and compared with a deterministic capture zones derived from a reference model. The results showed...

  10. A geostatistics-informed hierarchical sensitivity analysis method for complex groundwater flow and transport modeling: GEOSTATISTICAL SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dai, Heng [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Chen, Xingyuan [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Ye, Ming [Department of Scientific Computing, Florida State University, Tallahassee Florida USA; Song, Xuehang [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zachara, John M. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA

    2017-05-01

    Sensitivity analysis is an important tool for quantifying uncertainty in the outputs of mathematical models, especially for complex systems with a high dimension of spatially correlated parameters. Variance-based global sensitivity analysis has gained popularity because it can quantify the relative contribution of uncertainty from different sources. However, its computational cost increases dramatically with the complexity of the considered model and the dimension of model parameters. In this study we developed a hierarchical sensitivity analysis method that (1) constructs an uncertainty hierarchy by analyzing the input uncertainty sources, and (2) accounts for the spatial correlation among parameters at each level of the hierarchy using geostatistical tools. The contribution of uncertainty source at each hierarchy level is measured by sensitivity indices calculated using the variance decomposition method. Using this methodology, we identified the most important uncertainty source for a dynamic groundwater flow and solute transport in model at the Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford site. The results indicate that boundary conditions and permeability field contribute the most uncertainty to the simulated head field and tracer plume, respectively. The relative contribution from each source varied spatially and temporally as driven by the dynamic interaction between groundwater and river water at the site. By using a geostatistical approach to reduce the number of realizations needed for the sensitivity analysis, the computational cost of implementing the developed method was reduced to a practically manageable level. The developed sensitivity analysis method is generally applicable to a wide range of hydrologic and environmental problems that deal with high-dimensional spatially-distributed parameters.

  11. WINKLER'S SINGLE-PARAMETER SUBGRADE MODEL FROM ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Preferred Customer

    SUBGRADE MODELING. Asrat Worku. Department of ... The models give consistently larger stiffness for the Winkler springs as compared to previously proposed similar continuum-based models that ignore the lateral stresses. ...... (ν = 0.25 and E = 40MPa); (b) a medium stiff clay (ν = 0.45 and E = 50MPa). In contrast to this, ...

  12. Improving weather predictability by including land-surface model parameter uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orth, Rene; Dutra, Emanuel; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-04-01

    The land surface forms an important component of Earth system models and interacts nonlinearly with other parts such as ocean and atmosphere. To capture the complex and heterogenous hydrology of the land surface, land surface models include a large number of parameters impacting the coupling to other components of the Earth system model. Focusing on ECMWF's land-surface model HTESSEL we present in this study a comprehensive parameter sensitivity evaluation using multiple observational datasets in Europe. We select 6 poorly constrained effective parameters (surface runoff effective depth, skin conductivity, minimum stomatal resistance, maximum interception, soil moisture stress function shape, total soil depth) and explore their sensitivity to model outputs such as soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff using uncoupled simulations and coupled seasonal forecasts. Additionally we investigate the possibility to construct ensembles from the multiple land surface parameters. In the uncoupled runs we find that minimum stomatal resistance and total soil depth have the most influence on model performance. Forecast skill scores are moreover sensitive to the same parameters as HTESSEL performance in the uncoupled analysis. We demonstrate the robustness of our findings by comparing multiple best performing parameter sets and multiple randomly chosen parameter sets. We find better temperature and precipitation forecast skill with the best-performing parameter perturbations demonstrating representativeness of model performance across uncoupled (and hence less computationally demanding) and coupled settings. Finally, we construct ensemble forecasts from ensemble members derived with different best-performing parameterizations of HTESSEL. This incorporation of parameter uncertainty in the ensemble generation yields an increase in forecast skill, even beyond the skill of the default system. Orth, R., E. Dutra, and F. Pappenberger, 2016: Improving weather predictability by

  13. Comparing sensitivity analysis methods to advance lumped watershed model identification and evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Tang

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available This study seeks to identify sensitivity tools that will advance our understanding of lumped hydrologic models for the purposes of model improvement, calibration efficiency and improved measurement schemes. Four sensitivity analysis methods were tested: (1 local analysis using parameter estimation software (PEST, (2 regional sensitivity analysis (RSA, (3 analysis of variance (ANOVA, and (4 Sobol's method. The methods' relative efficiencies and effectiveness have been analyzed and compared. These four sensitivity methods were applied to the lumped Sacramento soil moisture accounting model (SAC-SMA coupled with SNOW-17. Results from this study characterize model sensitivities for two medium sized watersheds within the Juniata River Basin in Pennsylvania, USA. Comparative results for the 4 sensitivity methods are presented for a 3-year time series with 1 h, 6 h, and 24 h time intervals. The results of this study show that model parameter sensitivities are heavily impacted by the choice of analysis method as well as the model time interval. Differences between the two adjacent watersheds also suggest strong influences of local physical characteristics on the sensitivity methods' results. This study also contributes a comprehensive assessment of the repeatability, robustness, efficiency, and ease-of-implementation of the four sensitivity methods. Overall ANOVA and Sobol's method were shown to be superior to RSA and PEST. Relative to one another, ANOVA has reduced computational requirements and Sobol's method yielded more robust sensitivity rankings.

  14. Design optimization of structural parameters for highly sensitive photonic crystal label-free biosensors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ju, Jonghyun; Han, Yun-ah; Kim, Seok-min

    2013-03-07

    The effects of structural design parameters on the performance of nano-replicated photonic crystal (PC) label-free biosensors were examined by the analysis of simulated reflection spectra of PC structures. The grating pitch, duty, scaled grating height and scaled TiO2 layer thickness were selected as the design factors to optimize the PC structure. The peak wavelength value (PWV), full width at half maximum of the peak, figure of merit for the bulk and surface sensitivities, and surface/bulk sensitivity ratio were also selected as the responses to optimize the PC label-free biosensor performance. A parametric study showed that the grating pitch was the dominant factor for PWV, and that it had low interaction effects with other scaled design factors. Therefore, we can isolate the effect of grating pitch using scaled design factors. For the design of PC-label free biosensor, one should consider that: (1) the PWV can be measured by the reflection peak measurement instruments, (2) the grating pitch and duty can be manufactured using conventional lithography systems, and (3) the optimum design is less sensitive to the grating height and TiO2 layer thickness variations in the fabrication process. In this paper, we suggested a design guide for highly sensitive PC biosensor in which one select the grating pitch and duty based on the limitations of the lithography and measurement system, and conduct a multi objective optimization of the grating height and TiO2 layer thickness for maximizing performance and minimizing the influence of parameter variation. Through multi-objective optimization of a PC structure with a fixed grating height of 550 nm and a duty of 50%, we obtained a surface FOM of 66.18 RIU-1 and an S/B ratio of 34.8%, with a grating height of 117 nm and TiO2 height of 210 nm.

  15. Identification of adipokine clusters related to parameters of fat mass, insulin sensitivity and inflammation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gesine Flehmig

    Full Text Available In obesity, elevated fat mass and ectopic fat accumulation are associated with changes in adipokine secretion, which may link obesity to inflammation and the development of insulin resistance. However, relationships among individual adipokines and between adipokines and parameters of obesity, glucose metabolism or inflammation are largely unknown. Serum concentrations of 20 adipokines were measured in 141 Caucasian obese men (n = 67 and women (n = 74 with a wide range of body weight, glycemia and insulin sensitivity. Unbiased, distance-based hierarchical cluster analyses were performed to recognize patterns among adipokines and their relationship with parameters of obesity, glucose metabolism, insulin sensitivity and inflammation. We identified two major adipokine clusters related to either (1 body fat mass and inflammation (leptin, ANGPTL3, DLL1, chemerin, Nampt, resistin or insulin sensitivity/hyperglycemia, and lipid metabolism (vaspin, clusterin, glypican 4, progranulin, ANGPTL6, GPX3, RBP4, DLK1, SFRP5, BMP7, adiponectin, CTRP3 and 5, omentin. In addition, we found distinct adipokine clusters in subgroups of patients with or without type 2 diabetes (T2D. Logistic regression analyses revealed ANGPTL6, DLK1, Nampt and progranulin as strongest adipokine correlates of T2D in obese individuals. The panel of 20 adipokines predicted T2D compared to a combination of HbA1c, HOMA-IR and fasting plasma glucose with lower sensitivity (78% versus 91% and specificity (76% versus 94%. Therefore, adipokine patterns may currently not be clinically useful for the diagnosis of metabolic diseases. Whether adipokine patterns are relevant for the predictive assessment of intervention outcomes needs to be further investigated.

  16. Design Optimization of Structural Parameters for Highly Sensitive Photonic Crystal Label-Free Biosensors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun-ah Han

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The effects of structural design parameters on the performance of nano-replicated photonic crystal (PC label-free biosensors were examined by the analysis of simulated reflection spectra of PC structures. The grating pitch, duty, scaled grating height and scaled TiO2 layer thickness were selected as the design factors to optimize the PC structure. The peak wavelength value (PWV, full width at half maximum of the peak, figure of merit for the bulk and surface sensitivities, and surface/bulk sensitivity ratio were also selected as the responses to optimize the PC label-free biosensor performance. A parametric study showed that the grating pitch was the dominant factor for PWV, and that it had low interaction effects with other scaled design factors. Therefore, we can isolate the effect of grating pitch using scaled design factors. For the design of PC-label free biosensor, one should consider that: (1 the PWV can be measured by the reflection peak measurement instruments, (2 the grating pitch and duty can be manufactured using conventional lithography systems, and (3 the optimum design is less sensitive to the grating height and TiO2 layer thickness variations in the fabrication process. In this paper, we suggested a design guide for highly sensitive PC biosensor in which one select the grating pitch and duty based on the limitations of the lithography and measurement system, and conduct a multi objective optimization of the grating height and TiO2 layer thickness for maximizing performance and minimizing the influence of parameter variation. Through multi-objective optimization of a PC structure with a fixed grating height of 550 nm and a duty of 50%, we obtained a surface FOM of 66.18 RIU−1 and an S/B ratio of 34.8%, with a grating height of 117 nm and TiO2 height of 210 nm.

  17. Distribution of Redox-Sensitive Groundwater Quality Parameters Downgradient of a Landfill (Grindsted, Denmark)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerg, Poul Løgstrup; Rügge, Kirsten; Pedersen, Jørn K.

    1995-01-01

    The leachate plume stretching 300 m downgradient from the Grindsted Landfill (Denmark) has been characterized in terms of redox-sensitive groundwater quality parameters along two longitudinal transects (285 samples). Variations in the levels of methane, sulfide, iron(ll), manganese(ll), ammonium......, dinitrogen oxide, nitrite, nitrate, and oxygen in the groundwater samples indicate that methane production, sulfate reduction, iron reduction, manganese reduction, and nitrate reduction take place in the plume. Adjacent to the landfill, methanogenic and sulfatereducing zones were identified, while aerobic...

  18. Sensitivity of Hurst parameter estimation to periodic signals in time series and filtering approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marković, D.; Koch, M.

    2005-09-01

    The influence of the periodic signals in time series on the Hurst parameter estimate is investigated with temporal, spectral and time-scale methods. The Hurst parameter estimates of the simulated periodic time series with a white noise background show a high sensitivity on the signal to noise ratio and for some methods, also on the data length used. The analysis is then carried on to the investigation of extreme monthly river flows of the Elbe River (Dresden) and of the Rhine River (Kaub). Effects of removing the periodic components employing different filtering approaches are discussed and it is shown that such procedures are a prerequisite for an unbiased estimation of H. In summary, our results imply that the first step in a time series long-correlation study should be the separation of the deterministic components from the stochastic ones. Otherwise wrong conclusions concerning possible memory effects may be drawn.

  19. GEMSFITS: Code package for optimization of geochemical model parameters and inverse modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miron, George D.; Kulik, Dmitrii A.; Dmytrieva, Svitlana V.; Wagner, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Tool for generating consistent parameters against various types of experiments. • Handles a large number of experimental data and parameters (is parallelized). • Has a graphical interface and can perform statistical analysis on the parameters. • Tested on fitting the standard state Gibbs free energies of aqueous Al species. • Example on fitting interaction parameters of mixing models and thermobarometry. - Abstract: GEMSFITS is a new code package for fitting internally consistent input parameters of GEM (Gibbs Energy Minimization) geochemical–thermodynamic models against various types of experimental or geochemical data, and for performing inverse modeling tasks. It consists of the gemsfit2 (parameter optimizer) and gfshell2 (graphical user interface) programs both accessing a NoSQL database, all developed with flexibility, generality, efficiency, and user friendliness in mind. The parameter optimizer gemsfit2 includes the GEMS3K chemical speciation solver ( (http://gems.web.psi.ch/GEMS3K)), which features a comprehensive suite of non-ideal activity- and equation-of-state models of solution phases (aqueous electrolyte, gas and fluid mixtures, solid solutions, (ad)sorption. The gemsfit2 code uses the robust open-source NLopt library for parameter fitting, which provides a selection between several nonlinear optimization algorithms (global, local, gradient-based), and supports large-scale parallelization. The gemsfit2 code can also perform comprehensive statistical analysis of the fitted parameters (basic statistics, sensitivity, Monte Carlo confidence intervals), thus supporting the user with powerful tools for evaluating the quality of the fits and the physical significance of the model parameters. The gfshell2 code provides menu-driven setup of optimization options (data selection, properties to fit and their constraints, measured properties to compare with computed counterparts, and statistics). The practical utility, efficiency, and

  20. Investigation of modern methods of probalistic sensitivity analysis of final repository performance assessment models (MOSEL)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spiessl, Sabine; Becker, Dirk-Alexander

    2017-06-01

    Sensitivity analysis is a mathematical means for analysing the sensitivities of a computational model to variations of its input parameters. Thus, it is a tool for managing parameter uncertainties. It is often performed probabilistically as global sensitivity analysis, running the model a large number of times with different parameter value combinations. Going along with the increase of computer capabilities, global sensitivity analysis has been a field of mathematical research for some decades. In the field of final repository modelling, probabilistic analysis is regarded a key element of a modern safety case. An appropriate uncertainty and sensitivity analysis can help identify parameters that need further dedicated research to reduce the overall uncertainty, generally leads to better system understanding and can thus contribute to building confidence in the models. The purpose of the project described here was to systematically investigate different numerical and graphical techniques of sensitivity analysis with typical repository models, which produce a distinctly right-skewed and tailed output distribution and can exhibit a highly nonlinear, non-monotonic or even non-continuous behaviour. For the investigations presented here, three test models were defined that describe generic, but typical repository systems. A number of numerical and graphical sensitivity analysis methods were selected for investigation and, in part, modified or adapted. Different sampling methods were applied to produce various parameter samples of different sizes and many individual runs with the test models were performed. The results were evaluated with the different methods of sensitivity analysis. On this basis the methods were compared and assessed. This report gives an overview of the background and the applied methods. The results obtained for three typical test models are presented and explained; conclusions in view of practical applications are drawn. At the end, a recommendation

  1. Investigation of modern methods of probalistic sensitivity analysis of final repository performance assessment models (MOSEL)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spiessl, Sabine; Becker, Dirk-Alexander

    2017-06-15

    Sensitivity analysis is a mathematical means for analysing the sensitivities of a computational model to variations of its input parameters. Thus, it is a tool for managing parameter uncertainties. It is often performed probabilistically as global sensitivity analysis, running the model a large number of times with different parameter value combinations. Going along with the increase of computer capabilities, global sensitivity analysis has been a field of mathematical research for some decades. In the field of final repository modelling, probabilistic analysis is regarded a key element of a modern safety case. An appropriate uncertainty and sensitivity analysis can help identify parameters that need further dedicated research to reduce the overall uncertainty, generally leads to better system understanding and can thus contribute to building confidence in the models. The purpose of the project described here was to systematically investigate different numerical and graphical techniques of sensitivity analysis with typical repository models, which produce a distinctly right-skewed and tailed output distribution and can exhibit a highly nonlinear, non-monotonic or even non-continuous behaviour. For the investigations presented here, three test models were defined that describe generic, but typical repository systems. A number of numerical and graphical sensitivity analysis methods were selected for investigation and, in part, modified or adapted. Different sampling methods were applied to produce various parameter samples of different sizes and many individual runs with the test models were performed. The results were evaluated with the different methods of sensitivity analysis. On this basis the methods were compared and assessed. This report gives an overview of the background and the applied methods. The results obtained for three typical test models are presented and explained; conclusions in view of practical applications are drawn. At the end, a recommendation

  2. Verification Techniques for Parameter Selection and Bayesian Model Calibration Presented for an HIV Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wentworth, Mami Tonoe

    techniques for model calibration. For Bayesian model calibration, we employ adaptive Metropolis algorithms to construct densities for input parameters in the heat model and the HIV model. To quantify the uncertainty in the parameters, we employ two MCMC algorithms: Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis (DRAM) [33] and Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) [66, 68]. The densities obtained using these methods are compared to those obtained through the direct numerical evaluation of the Bayes' formula. We also combine uncertainties in input parameters and measurement errors to construct predictive estimates for a model response. A significant emphasis is on the development and illustration of techniques to verify the accuracy of sampling-based Metropolis algorithms. We verify the accuracy of DRAM and DREAM by comparing chains, densities and correlations obtained using DRAM, DREAM and the direct evaluation of Bayes formula. We also perform similar analysis for credible and prediction intervals for responses. Once the parameters are estimated, we employ energy statistics test [63, 64] to compare the densities obtained by different methods for the HIV model. The energy statistics are used to test the equality of distributions. We also consider parameter selection and verification techniques for models having one or more parameters that are noninfluential in the sense that they minimally impact model outputs. We illustrate these techniques for a dynamic HIV model but note that the parameter selection and verification framework is applicable to a wide range of biological and physical models. To accommodate the nonlinear input to output relations, which are typical for such models, we focus on global sensitivity analysis techniques, including those based on partial correlations, Sobol indices based on second-order model representations, and Morris indices, as well as a parameter selection technique based on standard errors. A significant objective is to provide

  3. Using pentobarbital to assess the sensitivity and independence of response-bout parameters in two mouse strains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Joshua E; Bailey, Jordan M; Newland, M Christopher

    2011-01-01

    A recently developed model posits that a bout of operant responding comprises three different components: bout initiation rate, within-bout response rate and bout length. Each parameter is thought to be affected by different classes of variables. Pentobarbital was used to assess the independence and sensitivity of these parameters in two mouse strains, BALB/c and C57BL/6, selected because of their different behavioral characteristics. With or without a running wheel present, BALB/c and C57BL/6 mice nose-poked under a Percentile 10:0.5 schedule designed to select high response rates while holding reinforcement rate constant. Baseline rates of nose-poking were higher for BALB/c mice than for C57BL/6 mice, but no strain difference occurred in baseline distance run. Nose-poking occurred at a higher rate when the wheel was absent from the chamber for both strains, and this was due to longer bout lengths and higher bout initiation rates. Nose-poke rates were increased by the 5.6-17 mg/kg doses of pentobarbital, especially in C57BL/6 mice. Pentobarbital only decreased running. No strain differences in pentobarbital sensitivity were observed for running. Whether reinforcement was extrinsic or intrinsic to the response was hypothesized to influence pentobarbital's effects. The different bout parameters helped dissect pentobarbital's effects and were selectively affected by pentobarbital. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. The application of sensitivity analysis to models of large scale physiological systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, J. I.

    1974-01-01

    A survey of the literature of sensitivity analysis as it applies to biological systems is reported as well as a brief development of sensitivity theory. A simple population model and a more complex thermoregulatory model illustrate the investigatory techniques and interpretation of parameter sensitivity analysis. The role of sensitivity analysis in validating and verifying models, and in identifying relative parameter influence in estimating errors in model behavior due to uncertainty in input data is presented. This analysis is valuable to the simulationist and the experimentalist in allocating resources for data collection. A method for reducing highly complex, nonlinear models to simple linear algebraic models that could be useful for making rapid, first order calculations of system behavior is presented.

  5. Identifying the connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Guse

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In hydrological models, parameters are used to represent the time-invariant characteristics of catchments and to capture different aspects of hydrological response. Hence, model parameters need to be identified based on their role in controlling the hydrological behaviour. For the identification of meaningful parameter values, multiple and complementary performance criteria are used that compare modelled and measured discharge time series. The reliability of the identification of hydrologically meaningful model parameter values depends on how distinctly a model parameter can be assigned to one of the performance criteria. To investigate this, we introduce the new concept of connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria. The connective strength assesses the intensity in the interrelationship between model parameters and performance criteria in a bijective way. In our analysis of connective strength, model simulations are carried out based on a latin hypercube sampling. Ten performance criteria including Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE, Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE and its three components (alpha, beta and r as well as RSR (the ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation for different segments of the flow duration curve (FDC are calculated. With a joint analysis of two regression tree (RT approaches, we derive how a model parameter is connected to different performance criteria. At first, RTs are constructed using each performance criterion as the target variable to detect the most relevant model parameters for each performance criterion. Secondly, RTs are constructed using each parameter as the target variable to detect which performance criteria are impacted by changes in the values of one distinct model parameter. Based on this, appropriate performance criteria are identified for each model parameter. In this study, a high bijective connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria

  6. A reactive transport model for mercury fate in contaminated soil--sensitivity analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leterme, Bertrand; Jacques, Diederik

    2015-11-01

    We present a sensitivity analysis of a reactive transport model of mercury (Hg) fate in contaminated soil systems. The one-dimensional model, presented in Leterme et al. (2014), couples water flow in variably saturated conditions with Hg physico-chemical reactions. The sensitivity of Hg leaching and volatilisation to parameter uncertainty is examined using the elementary effect method. A test case is built using a hypothetical 1-m depth sandy soil and a 50-year time series of daily precipitation and evapotranspiration. Hg anthropogenic contamination is simulated in the topsoil by separately considering three different sources: cinnabar, non-aqueous phase liquid and aqueous mercuric chloride. The model sensitivity to a set of 13 input parameters is assessed, using three different model outputs (volatilized Hg, leached Hg, Hg still present in the contaminated soil horizon). Results show that dissolved organic matter (DOM) concentration in soil solution and the binding constant to DOM thiol groups are critical parameters, as well as parameters related to Hg sorption to humic and fulvic acids in solid organic matter. Initial Hg concentration is also identified as a sensitive parameter. The sensitivity analysis also brings out non-monotonic model behaviour for certain parameters.

  7. Supplementary Material for: A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models

    KAUST Repository

    Boas, Sonja

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Background Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such ‘black-box’ models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. Results To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. Conclusions We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all ‘black-box’ models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.

  8. Is structural sensitivity a problem of oversimplified biological models? Insights from nested Dynamic Energy Budget models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aldebert, Clement; Kooi, Bob W; Nerini, David; Poggiale, Jean-Christophe

    2018-03-14

    Many current issues in ecology require predictions made by mathematical models, which are built on somewhat arbitrary choices. Their consequences are quantified by sensitivity analysis to quantify how changes in model parameters propagate into an uncertainty in model predictions. An extension called structural sensitivity analysis deals with changes in the mathematical description of complex processes like predation. Such processes are described at the population scale by a specific mathematical function taken among similar ones, a choice that can strongly drive model predictions. However, it has only been studied in simple theoretical models. Here, we ask whether structural sensitivity is a problem of oversimplified models. We found in predator-prey models describing chemostat experiments that these models are less structurally sensitive to the choice of a specific functional response if they include mass balance resource dynamics and individual maintenance. Neglecting these processes in an ecological model (for instance by using the well-known logistic growth equation) is not only an inappropriate description of the ecological system, but also a source of more uncertain predictions. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  9. Sensitivity analysis of numerical model of prestressed concrete containment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bílý, Petr, E-mail: petr.bily@fsv.cvut.cz; Kohoutková, Alena, E-mail: akohout@fsv.cvut.cz

    2015-12-15

    Graphical abstract: - Highlights: • FEM model of prestressed concrete containment with steel liner was created. • Sensitivity analysis of changes in geometry and loads was conducted. • Steel liner and temperature effects are the most important factors. • Creep and shrinkage parameters are essential for the long time analysis. • Prestressing schedule is a key factor in the early stages. - Abstract: Safety is always the main consideration in the design of containment of nuclear power plant. However, efficiency of the design process should be also taken into consideration. Despite the advances in computational abilities in recent years, simplified analyses may be found useful for preliminary scoping or trade studies. In the paper, a study on sensitivity of finite element model of prestressed concrete containment to changes in geometry, loads and other factors is presented. Importance of steel liner, reinforcement, prestressing process, temperature changes, nonlinearity of materials as well as density of finite elements mesh is assessed in the main stages of life cycle of the containment. Although the modeling adjustments have not produced any significant changes in computation time, it was found that in some cases simplified modeling process can lead to significant reduction of work time without degradation of the results.

  10. Summary of the DREAM8 Parameter Estimation Challenge: Toward Parameter Identification for Whole-Cell Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan R Karr

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Whole-cell models that explicitly represent all cellular components at the molecular level have the potential to predict phenotype from genotype. However, even for simple bacteria, whole-cell models will contain thousands of parameters, many of which are poorly characterized or unknown. New algorithms are needed to estimate these parameters and enable researchers to build increasingly comprehensive models. We organized the Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods (DREAM 8 Whole-Cell Parameter Estimation Challenge to develop new parameter estimation algorithms for whole-cell models. We asked participants to identify a subset of parameters of a whole-cell model given the model's structure and in silico "experimental" data. Here we describe the challenge, the best performing methods, and new insights into the identifiability of whole-cell models. We also describe several valuable lessons we learned toward improving future challenges. Going forward, we believe that collaborative efforts supported by inexpensive cloud computing have the potential to solve whole-cell model parameter estimation.

  11. Estimation of Kinetic Parameters in an Automotive SCR Catalyst Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Åberg, Andreas; Widd, Anders; Abildskov, Jens

    2016-01-01

    A challenge during the development of models for simulation of the automotive Selective Catalytic Reduction catalyst is the parameter estimation of the kinetic parameters, which can be time consuming and problematic. The parameter estimation is often carried out on small-scale reactor tests...

  12. A new process sensitivity index to identify important system processes under process model and parametric uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dai, Heng [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Ye, Ming [Department of Scientific Computing, Florida State University, Tallahassee Florida USA; Walker, Anthony P. [Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge Tennessee USA; Chen, Xingyuan [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA

    2017-04-01

    Hydrological models are always composed of multiple components that represent processes key to intended model applications. When a process can be simulated by multiple conceptual-mathematical models (process models), model uncertainty in representing the process arises. While global sensitivity analysis methods have been widely used for identifying important processes in hydrologic modeling, the existing methods consider only parametric uncertainty but ignore the model uncertainty for process representation. To address this problem, this study develops a new method to probe multimodel process sensitivity by integrating the model averaging methods into the framework of variance-based global sensitivity analysis, given that the model averaging methods quantify both parametric and model uncertainty. A new process sensitivity index is derived as a metric of relative process importance, and the index includes variance in model outputs caused by uncertainty in both process models and model parameters. For demonstration, the new index is used to evaluate the processes of recharge and geology in a synthetic study of groundwater reactive transport modeling. The recharge process is simulated by two models that converting precipitation to recharge, and the geology process is also simulated by two models of different parameterizations of hydraulic conductivity; each process model has its own random parameters. The new process sensitivity index is mathematically general, and can be applied to a wide range of problems in hydrology and beyond.

  13. Edge Modeling by Two Blur Parameters in Varying Contrasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Suyoung

    2018-06-01

    This paper presents a method of modeling edge profiles with two blur parameters, and estimating and predicting those edge parameters with varying brightness combinations and camera-to-object distances (COD). First, the validity of the edge model is proven mathematically. Then, it is proven experimentally with edges from a set of images captured for specifically designed target sheets and with edges from natural images. Estimation of the two blur parameters for each observed edge profile is performed with a brute-force method to find parameters that produce global minimum errors. Then, using the estimated blur parameters, actual blur parameters of edges with arbitrary brightness combinations are predicted using a surface interpolation method (i.e., kriging). The predicted surfaces show that the two blur parameters of the proposed edge model depend on both dark-side edge brightness and light-side edge brightness following a certain global trend. This is similar across varying CODs. The proposed edge model is compared with a one-blur parameter edge model using experiments of the root mean squared error for fitting the edge models to each observed edge profile. The comparison results suggest that the proposed edge model has superiority over the one-blur parameter edge model in most cases where edges have varying brightness combinations.

  14. Estimation of Parameters in Latent Class Models with Constraints on the Parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulson, James A.

    This paper reviews the application of the EM Algorithm to marginal maximum likelihood estimation of parameters in the latent class model and extends the algorithm to the case where there are monotone homogeneity constraints on the item parameters. It is shown that the EM algorithm can be used to obtain marginal maximum likelihood estimates of the…

  15. Sensitivity Study on Aging Elements Using Degradation Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Man-Woong; Lee, Sang-Kyu; Kim, Hyun-Koon; Ryu, Yong-Ho [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Yong Won; Park, Chang Hwan; Lee, Un Chul [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2008-05-15

    To evaluate the safety margin effects for performance degradation of system and components due to ageing for CANDU reactors, it is required to identify the aging elements for systems and components and to develop the degradation model for each element aimed to predict the aging value during operating year adequately. However, it is recognized that the degradation model is not an independent parameter to assess the evaluation of safety margin change due to ageing. For example, the moderator temperature coefficient (MTC) is an important factor of power distribution and is affected by coolant flow rate. Hence all the aging elements relevant with the flow rate at different system or components could be influenced the MCT. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the major elements affecting the safety margin. In this regard, this study investigate the coupled effect to concern the safety margin using a sensitivity analysis is conducted.

  16. A framework for 2-stage global sensitivity analysis of GastroPlus™ compartmental models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherholz, Megerle L; Forder, James; Androulakis, Ioannis P

    2018-04-01

    Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models are becoming an important consideration for regulatory submissions, requiring further evaluation to establish the need for global sensitivity analysis. To demonstrate the benefits of an extensive analysis, global sensitivity was implemented for the GastroPlus™ model, a well-known commercially available platform, using four example drugs: acetaminophen, risperidone, atenolol, and furosemide. The capabilities of GastroPlus were expanded by developing an integrated framework to automate the GastroPlus graphical user interface with AutoIt and for execution of the sensitivity analysis in MATLAB ® . Global sensitivity analysis was performed in two stages using the Morris method to screen over 50 parameters for significant factors followed by quantitative assessment of variability using Sobol's sensitivity analysis. The 2-staged approach significantly reduced computational cost for the larger model without sacrificing interpretation of model behavior, showing that the sensitivity results were well aligned with the biopharmaceutical classification system. Both methods detected nonlinearities and parameter interactions that would have otherwise been missed by local approaches. Future work includes further exploration of how the input domain influences the calculated global sensitivity measures as well as extending the framework to consider a whole-body PBPK model.

  17. Global Sensitivity Analysis of Environmental Models: Convergence, Robustness and Accuracy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarrazin, F.; Pianosi, F.; Hartmann, A. J.; Wagener, T.

    2014-12-01

    Sensitivity analysis aims to characterize the impact that changes in model input factors (e.g. the parameters) have on the model output (e.g. simulated streamflow). It is a valuable diagnostic tool for model understanding and for model improvement, it enhances calibration efficiency, and it supports uncertainty and scenario analysis. It is of particular interest for environmental models because they are often complex, non-linear, non-monotonic and exhibit strong interactions between their parameters. However, sensitivity analysis has to be carefully implemented to produce reliable results at moderate computational cost. For example, sample size can have a strong impact on the results and has to be carefully chosen. Yet, there is little guidance available for this step in environmental modelling. The objective of the present study is to provide guidelines for a robust sensitivity analysis, in order to support modellers in making appropriate choices for its implementation and in interpreting its outcome. We considered hydrological models with increasing level of complexity. We tested four sensitivity analysis methods, Regional Sensitivity Analysis, Method of Morris, a density-based (PAWN) and a variance-based (Sobol) method. The convergence and variability of sensitivity indices were investigated. We used bootstrapping to assess and improve the robustness of sensitivity indices even for limited sample sizes. Finally, we propose a quantitative validation approach for sensitivity analysis based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics.

  18. Modeling and Dynamic Properties of a Four-Parameter Zener Model Vibration Isolator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-ku Shi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available To install high-performance isolators in a limited installation space, a novel passive isolator based on the four-parameter Zener model is proposed. The proposed isolator consists of three major parts, namely, connecting structure, sealing construction, and upper and lower cavities, all of which are enclosed by four segments of metal bellows with the same diameter. The equivalent stiffness and damping model of the isolator are derived from the dynamic stiffness of the isolation system. Experiments are conducted, and the experiment error is analyzed. Test results verify the validity of the model. Theoretical analysis and numerical simulation reveal that the stiffness and damping of the isolator have multiple properties with different exciting amplitudes and structural parameters. In consideration of the design of the structural parameter, the effects of exciting amplitude, damp channel diameter, equivalent cylinder diameter of cavities, sum of the stiffness of the bellows at the end of the isolator, and length of damp channel on the dynamic properties of the isolator are discussed comprehensively. A design method based on the parameter sensitivity of the isolator’s design parameter is proposed. Thus, the novel isolator can be practically applied to engineering and provide a significant contribution in the field.

  19. Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis in the CICE v5.1 Sea Ice Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urrego-Blanco, J. R.; Urban, N. M.

    2015-12-01

    Changes in the high latitude climate system have the potential to affect global climate through feedbacks with the atmosphere and connections with mid latitudes. Sea ice and climate models used to understand these changes have uncertainties that need to be characterized and quantified. In this work we characterize parametric uncertainty in Los Alamos Sea Ice model (CICE) and quantify the sensitivity of sea ice area, extent and volume with respect to uncertainty in about 40 individual model parameters. Unlike common sensitivity analyses conducted in previous studies where parameters are varied one-at-a-time, this study uses a global variance-based approach in which Sobol sequences are used to efficiently sample the full 40-dimensional parameter space. This approach requires a very large number of model evaluations, which are expensive to run. A more computationally efficient approach is implemented by training and cross-validating a surrogate (emulator) of the sea ice model with model output from 400 model runs. The emulator is used to make predictions of sea ice extent, area, and volume at several model configurations, which are then used to compute the Sobol sensitivity indices of the 40 parameters. A ranking based on the sensitivity indices indicates that model output is most sensitive to snow parameters such as conductivity and grain size, and the drainage of melt ponds. The main effects and interactions among the most influential parameters are also estimated by a non-parametric regression technique based on generalized additive models. It is recommended research to be prioritized towards more accurately determining these most influential parameters values by observational studies or by improving existing parameterizations in the sea ice model.

  20. Parameter Identification of the 2-Chlorophenol Oxidation Model Using Improved Differential Search Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guang-zhou Chen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Parameter identification plays a crucial role for simulating and using model. This paper firstly carried out the sensitivity analysis of the 2-chlorophenol oxidation model in supercritical water using the Monte Carlo method. Then, to address the nonlinearity of the model, two improved differential search (DS algorithms were proposed to carry out the parameter identification of the model. One strategy is to adopt the Latin hypercube sampling method to replace the uniform distribution of initial population; the other is to combine DS with simplex method. The results of sensitivity analysis reveal the sensitivity and the degree of difficulty identified for every model parameter. Furthermore, the posteriori probability distribution of parameters and the collaborative relationship between any two parameters can be obtained. To verify the effectiveness of the improved algorithms, the optimization performance of improved DS in kinetic parameter estimation is studied and compared with that of the basic DS algorithm, differential evolution, artificial bee colony optimization, and quantum-behaved particle swarm optimization. And the experimental results demonstrate that the DS with the Latin hypercube sampling method does not present better performance, while the hybrid methods have the advantages of strong global search ability and local search ability and are more effective than the other algorithms.

  1. Sensitivity Analysis of Corrosion Rate Prediction Models Utilized for Reinforced Concrete Affected by Chloride

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siamphukdee, Kanjana; Collins, Frank; Zou, Roger

    2013-06-01

    Chloride-induced reinforcement corrosion is one of the major causes of premature deterioration in reinforced concrete (RC) structures. Given the high maintenance and replacement costs, accurate modeling of RC deterioration is indispensable for ensuring the optimal allocation of limited economic resources. Since corrosion rate is one of the major factors influencing the rate of deterioration, many predictive models exist. However, because the existing models use very different sets of input parameters, the choice of model for RC deterioration is made difficult. Although the factors affecting corrosion rate are frequently reported in the literature, there is no published quantitative study on the sensitivity of predicted corrosion rate to the various input parameters. This paper presents the results of the sensitivity analysis of the input parameters for nine selected corrosion rate prediction models. Three different methods of analysis are used to determine and compare the sensitivity of corrosion rate to various input parameters: (i) univariate regression analysis, (ii) multivariate regression analysis, and (iii) sensitivity index. The results from the analysis have quantitatively verified that the corrosion rate of steel reinforcement bars in RC structures is highly sensitive to corrosion duration time, concrete resistivity, and concrete chloride content. These important findings establish that future empirical models for predicting corrosion rate of RC should carefully consider and incorporate these input parameters.

  2. Incremental parameter estimation of kinetic metabolic network models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia Gengjie

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An efficient and reliable parameter estimation method is essential for the creation of biological models using ordinary differential equation (ODE. Most of the existing estimation methods involve finding the global minimum of data fitting residuals over the entire parameter space simultaneously. Unfortunately, the associated computational requirement often becomes prohibitively high due to the large number of parameters and the lack of complete parameter identifiability (i.e. not all parameters can be uniquely identified. Results In this work, an incremental approach was applied to the parameter estimation of ODE models from concentration time profiles. Particularly, the method was developed to address a commonly encountered circumstance in the modeling of metabolic networks, where the number of metabolic fluxes (reaction rates exceeds that of metabolites (chemical species. Here, the minimization of model residuals was performed over a subset of the parameter space that is associated with the degrees of freedom in the dynamic flux estimation from the concentration time-slopes. The efficacy of this method was demonstrated using two generalized mass action (GMA models, where the method significantly outperformed single-step estimations. In addition, an extension of the estimation method to handle missing data is also presented. Conclusions The proposed incremental estimation method is able to tackle the issue on the lack of complete parameter identifiability and to significantly reduce the computational efforts in estimating model parameters, which will facilitate kinetic modeling of genome-scale cellular metabolism in the future.

  3. Modelling pesticides volatilisation in greenhouses: Sensitivity analysis of a modified PEARL model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houbraken, Michael; Doan Ngoc, Kim; van den Berg, Frederik; Spanoghe, Pieter

    2017-12-01

    The application of the existing PEARL model was extended to include estimations of the concentration of crop protection products in greenhouse (indoor) air due to volatilisation from the plant surface. The model was modified to include the processes of ventilation of the greenhouse air to the outside atmosphere and transformation in the air. A sensitivity analysis of the model was performed by varying selected input parameters on a one-by-one basis and comparing the model outputs with the outputs of the reference scenarios. The sensitivity analysis indicates that - in addition to vapour pressure - the model had the highest ratio of variation for the rate ventilation rate and thickness of the boundary layer on the day of application. On the days after application, competing processes, degradation and uptake in the plant, becomes more important. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. An approach to adjustment of relativistic mean field model parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bayram Tuncay

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The Relativistic Mean Field (RMF model with a small number of adjusted parameters is powerful tool for correct predictions of various ground-state nuclear properties of nuclei. Its success for describing nuclear properties of nuclei is directly related with adjustment of its parameters by using experimental data. In the present study, the Artificial Neural Network (ANN method which mimics brain functionality has been employed for improvement of the RMF model parameters. In particular, the understanding capability of the ANN method for relations between the RMF model parameters and their predictions for binding energies (BEs of 58Ni and 208Pb have been found in agreement with the literature values.

  5. A simulation of water pollution model parameter estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibler, J. F.

    1976-01-01

    A parameter estimation procedure for a water pollution transport model is elaborated. A two-dimensional instantaneous-release shear-diffusion model serves as representative of a simple transport process. Pollution concentration levels are arrived at via modeling of a remote-sensing system. The remote-sensed data are simulated by adding Gaussian noise to the concentration level values generated via the transport model. Model parameters are estimated from the simulated data using a least-squares batch processor. Resolution, sensor array size, and number and location of sensor readings can be found from the accuracies of the parameter estimates.

  6. The Research of Screw Thread Parameter Measurement Based on Position Sensitive Detector and Laser

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Q. B.; Ding, Z. L.; Chen, J. C.; Ai, L. L.; Yuan, F.

    2006-10-01

    A technique and system of measuring screw thread parameter based on the theory of laser measurement is presented in this paper, which can be carried out the automated measurement of screw thread parameter. An inspection instrument was designed and produced, which included exterior imaging system of optical path, transverse displacement measurement system, axial displacement measurement system, and a module to deal with, control and assess the data in the upper system. The inspection and estimate of the screw thread contour curve were completed by using position sensitive device (PSD) as photoelectric detector to measure the coordinate data of the screw thread contour curve in the transverse section, and using precise raster to measure the axial displacement of the precision worktable under the screw thread test criterion., computer can gives a measured result according to coordinate data of the screw thread obtained by PSD. The relation between measured spot and image is established, and optimum design of the system organization are introduced, including the image length of receiving lens focal length optical system and the choice of PSD , and some main factor affected measuring precision are analyzed. The experimental results show that the measurement uncertainty of screw thread minor diameter can reach 0. 5μm, which can meet most requests for the measurement of screw thread parameter.

  7. The Research of Screw Thread Parameter Measurement Based on Position Sensitive Detector and Laser

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tong, Q B; Ding, Z L; Chen, J C; Ai, L L; Yuan, F

    2006-01-01

    A technique and system of measuring screw thread parameter based on the theory of laser measurement is presented in this paper, which can be carried out the automated measurement of screw thread parameter. An inspection instrument was designed and produced, which included exterior imaging system of optical path, transverse displacement measurement system, axial displacement measurement system, and a module to deal with, control and assess the data in the upper system. The inspection and estimate of the screw thread contour curve were completed by using position sensitive device (PSD) as photoelectric detector to measure the coordinate data of the screw thread contour curve in the transverse section, and using precise raster to measure the axial displacement of the precision worktable under the screw thread test criterion., computer can gives a measured result according to coordinate data of the screw thread obtained by PSD. The relation between measured spot and image is established, and optimum design of the system organization are introduced, including the image length of receiving lens focal length optical system and the choice of PSD , and some main factor affected measuring precision are analyzed. The experimental results show that the measurement uncertainty of screw thread minor diameter can reach 0. 5μm, which can meet most requests for the measurement of screw thread parameter

  8. Sensitivity Analysis on the Reliability of an Offshore Winch Regarding Selected Gearbox Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lothar Wöll

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available To match the high expectations and demands of customers for long-lasting machines, the development of reliable products is crucial. Furthermore, for reasons of competitiveness, it is necessary to know the future product lifetime as accurately as possible to avoid over-dimensioning. Additionally, a more detailed system understanding enables the designer to influence the life expectancy of the product without performing an extensive amount of expensive and time-consuming tests. In early development stages of new equipment only very basic information about the future system design, like the ratio or the system structure, is available. Nevertheless, a reliable lifetime prediction of the system components and subsequently of the system itself is necessary to evaluate possible design alternatives and to identify critical components beforehand. Lifetime predictions, however, require many parameters, which are often not known in these early stages. Therefore, this paper performs a sensitivity analysis on the drivetrain of an offshore winch with active heave compensation for two typical load cases. The influences of the parameters gear center distance and ambient temperature are investigated by varying the parameters within typical ranges and evaluating the quantitative effect on the lifetime.

  9. Lumped parameter models for the interpretation of environmental tracer data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maloszewski, P.; Zuber, A.

    1996-01-01

    Principles of the lumped-parameter approach to the interpretation of environmental tracer data are given. The following models are considered: the piston flow model (PFM), exponential flow model (EM), linear model (LM), combined piston flow and exponential flow model (EPM), combined linear flow and piston flow model (LPM), and dispersion model (DM). The applicability of these models for the interpretation of different tracer data is discussed for a steady state flow approximation. Case studies are given to exemplify the applicability of the lumped-parameter approach. Description of a user-friendly computer program is given. (author). 68 refs, 25 figs, 4 tabs

  10. Performances of non-parametric statistics in sensitivity analysis and parameter ranking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saltelli, A.

    1987-01-01

    Twelve parametric and non-parametric sensitivity analysis techniques are compared in the case of non-linear model responses. The test models used are taken from the long-term risk analysis for the disposal of high level radioactive waste in a geological formation. They describe the transport of radionuclides through a set of engineered and natural barriers from the repository to the biosphere and to man. The output data from these models are the dose rates affecting the maximum exposed individual of a critical group at a given point in time. All the techniques are applied to the output from the same Monte Carlo simulations, where a modified version of Latin Hypercube method is used for the sample selection. Hypothesis testing is systematically applied to quantify the degree of confidence in the results given by the various sensitivity estimators. The estimators are ranked according to their robustness and stability, on the basis of two test cases. The conclusions are that no estimator can be considered the best from all points of view and recommend the use of more than just one estimator in sensitivity analysis

  11. A computational model that predicts behavioral sensitivity to intracortical microstimulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sungshin; Callier, Thierri; Bensmaia, Sliman J.

    2017-02-01

    Objective. Intracortical microstimulation (ICMS) is a powerful tool to investigate the neural mechanisms of perception and can be used to restore sensation for patients who have lost it. While sensitivity to ICMS has previously been characterized, no systematic framework has been developed to summarize the detectability of individual ICMS pulse trains or the discriminability of pairs of pulse trains. Approach. We develop a simple simulation that describes the responses of a population of neurons to a train of electrical pulses delivered through a microelectrode. We then perform an ideal observer analysis on the simulated population responses to predict the behavioral performance of non-human primates in ICMS detection and discrimination tasks. Main results. Our computational model can predict behavioral performance across a wide range of stimulation conditions with high accuracy (R 2 = 0.97) and generalizes to novel ICMS pulse trains that were not used to fit its parameters. Furthermore, the model provides a theoretical basis for the finding that amplitude discrimination based on ICMS violates Weber’s law. Significance. The model can be used to characterize the sensitivity to ICMS across the range of perceptible and safe stimulation regimes. As such, it will be a useful tool for both neuroscience and neuroprosthetics.

  12. Wind climate estimation using WRF model output: method and model sensitivities over the sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hahmann, Andrea N.; Vincent, Claire Louise; Peña, Alfredo

    2015-01-01

    setup parameters. The results of the year-long sensitivity simulations show that the long-term mean wind speed simulated by the WRF model offshore in the region studied is quite insensitive to the global reanalysis, the number of vertical levels, and the horizontal resolution of the sea surface...... temperature used as lower boundary conditions. Also, the strength and form (grid vs spectral) of the nudging is quite irrelevant for the mean wind speed at 100 m. Large sensitivity is found to the choice of boundary layer parametrization, and to the length of the period that is discarded as spin-up to produce...

  13. A test for the parameters of multiple linear regression models ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A test for the parameters of multiple linear regression models is developed for conducting tests simultaneously on all the parameters of multiple linear regression models. The test is robust relative to the assumptions of homogeneity of variances and absence of serial correlation of the classical F-test. Under certain null and ...

  14. WATGIS: A GIS-Based Lumped Parameter Water Quality Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glenn P. Fernandez; George M. Chescheir; R. Wayne Skaggs; Devendra M. Amatya

    2002-01-01

    A Geographic Information System (GIS)­based, lumped parameter water quality model was developed to estimate the spatial and temporal nitrogen­loading patterns for lower coastal plain watersheds in eastern North Carolina. The model uses a spatially distributed delivery ratio (DR) parameter to account for nitrogen retention or loss along a drainage network. Delivery...

  15. Exploring the interdependencies between parameters in a material model.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silling, Stewart Andrew; Fermen-Coker, Muge

    2014-01-01

    A method is investigated to reduce the number of numerical parameters in a material model for a solid. The basis of the method is to detect interdependencies between parameters within a class of materials of interest. The method is demonstrated for a set of material property data for iron and steel using the Johnson-Cook plasticity model.

  16. Regionalization of SWAT Model Parameters for Use in Ungauged Watersheds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Indrajeet Chaubey

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available There has been a steady shift towards modeling and model-based approaches as primary methods of assessing watershed response to hydrologic inputs and land management, and of quantifying watershed-wide best management practice (BMP effectiveness. Watershed models often require some degree of calibration and validation to achieve adequate watershed and therefore BMP representation. This is, however, only possible for gauged watersheds. There are many watersheds for which there are very little or no monitoring data available, thus the question as to whether it would be possible to extend and/or generalize model parameters obtained through calibration of gauged watersheds to ungauged watersheds within the same region. This study explored the possibility of developing regionalized model parameter sets for use in ungauged watersheds. The study evaluated two regionalization methods: global averaging, and regression-based parameters, on the SWAT model using data from priority watersheds in Arkansas. Resulting parameters were tested and model performance determined on three gauged watersheds. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (NS for stream flow obtained using regression-based parameters (0.53–0.83 compared well with corresponding values obtained through model calibration (0.45–0.90. Model performance obtained using global averaged parameter values was also generally acceptable (0.4 ≤ NS ≤ 0.75. Results from this study indicate that regionalized parameter sets for the SWAT model can be obtained and used for making satisfactory hydrologic response predictions in ungauged watersheds.

  17. Global sensitivity analysis of thermomechanical models in modelling of welding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petelet, M.

    2008-01-01

    Current approach of most welding modellers is to content themselves with available material data, and to chose a mechanical model that seems to be appropriate. Among inputs, those controlling the material properties are one of the key problems of welding simulation: material data are never characterized over a sufficiently wide temperature range. This way to proceed neglect the influence of the uncertainty of input data on the result given by the computer code. In this case, how to assess the credibility of prediction? This thesis represents a step in the direction of implementing an innovative approach in welding simulation in order to bring answers to this question, with an illustration on some concretes welding cases.The global sensitivity analysis is chosen to determine which material properties are the most sensitive in a numerical welding simulation and in which range of temperature. Using this methodology require some developments to sample and explore the input space covering welding of different steel materials. Finally, input data have been divided in two groups according to their influence on the output of the model (residual stress or distortion). In this work, complete methodology of the global sensitivity analysis has been successfully applied to welding simulation and lead to reduce the input space to the only important variables. Sensitivity analysis has provided answers to what can be considered as one of the probable frequently asked questions regarding welding simulation: for a given material which properties must be measured with a good accuracy and which ones can be simply extrapolated or taken from a similar material? (author)

  18. Bayesian estimation of parameters in a regional hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Engeland

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the applicability of the distributed, process-oriented Ecomag model for prediction of daily streamflow in ungauged basins. The Ecomag model is applied as a regional model to nine catchments in the NOPEX area, using Bayesian statistics to estimate the posterior distribution of the model parameters conditioned on the observed streamflow. The distribution is calculated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC analysis. The Bayesian method requires formulation of a likelihood function for the parameters and three alternative formulations are used. The first is a subjectively chosen objective function that describes the goodness of fit between the simulated and observed streamflow, as defined in the GLUE framework. The second and third formulations are more statistically correct likelihood models that describe the simulation errors. The full statistical likelihood model describes the simulation errors as an AR(1 process, whereas the simple model excludes the auto-regressive part. The statistical parameters depend on the catchments and the hydrological processes and the statistical and the hydrological parameters are estimated simultaneously. The results show that the simple likelihood model gives the most robust parameter estimates. The simulation error may be explained to a large extent by the catchment characteristics and climatic conditions, so it is possible to transfer knowledge about them to ungauged catchments. The statistical models for the simulation errors indicate that structural errors in the model are more important than parameter uncertainties. Keywords: regional hydrological model, model uncertainty, Bayesian analysis, Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis

  19. Brownian motion model with stochastic parameters for asset prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ching, Soo Huei; Hin, Pooi Ah

    2013-09-01

    The Brownian motion model may not be a completely realistic model for asset prices because in real asset prices the drift μ and volatility σ may change over time. Presently we consider a model in which the parameter x = (μ,σ) is such that its value x (t + Δt) at a short time Δt ahead of the present time t depends on the value of the asset price at time t + Δt as well as the present parameter value x(t) and m-1 other parameter values before time t via a conditional distribution. The Malaysian stock prices are used to compare the performance of the Brownian motion model with fixed parameter with that of the model with stochastic parameter.

  20. Sensitivity analysis of an Advanced Gas-cooled Reactor control rod model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, M.; Green, P.L.; O’Driscoll, D.; Worden, K.; Sims, N.D.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A model was made of the AGR control rod mechanism. • The aim was to better understand the performance when shutting down the reactor. • The model showed good agreement with test data. • Sensitivity analysis was carried out. • The results demonstrated the robustness of the system. - Abstract: A model has been made of the primary shutdown system of an Advanced Gas-cooled Reactor nuclear power station. The aim of this paper is to explore the use of sensitivity analysis techniques on this model. The two motivations for performing sensitivity analysis are to quantify how much individual uncertain parameters are responsible for the model output uncertainty, and to make predictions about what could happen if one or several parameters were to change. Global sensitivity analysis techniques were used based on Gaussian process emulation; the software package GEM-SA was used to calculate the main effects, the main effect index and the total sensitivity index for each parameter and these were compared to local sensitivity analysis results. The results suggest that the system performance is resistant to adverse changes in several parameters at once.

  1. Estimation of shape model parameters for 3D surfaces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Erbou, Søren Gylling Hemmingsen; Darkner, Sune; Fripp, Jurgen

    2008-01-01

    is applied to a database of 3D surfaces from a section of the porcine pelvic bone extracted from 33 CT scans. A leave-one-out validation shows that the parameters of the first 3 modes of the shape model can be predicted with a mean difference within [-0.01,0.02] from the true mean, with a standard deviation......Statistical shape models are widely used as a compact way of representing shape variation. Fitting a shape model to unseen data enables characterizing the data in terms of the model parameters. In this paper a Gauss-Newton optimization scheme is proposed to estimate shape model parameters of 3D...... surfaces using distance maps, which enables the estimation of model parameters without the requirement of point correspondence. For applications with acquisition limitations such as speed and cost, this formulation enables the fitting of a statistical shape model to arbitrarily sampled data. The method...

  2. Determination of the Corona model parameters with artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmet, Nayir; Bekir, Karlik; Arif, Hashimov

    2005-01-01

    Full text : The aim of this study is to calculate new model parameters taking into account the corona of electrical transmission line wires. For this purpose, a neural network modeling proposed for the corona frequent characteristics modeling. Then this model was compared with the other model developed at the Polytechnic Institute of Saint Petersburg. The results of development of the specified corona model for calculation of its influence on the wave processes in multi-wires line and determination of its parameters are submitted. Results of obtained calculation equations are brought for electrical transmission line with allowance for superficial effect in the ground and wires with reference to developed corona model

  3. Spatio-temporal modeling of nonlinear distributed parameter systems

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Han-Xiong

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this volume is to provide a brief review of the previous work on model reduction and identifi cation of distributed parameter systems (DPS), and develop new spatio-temporal models and their relevant identifi cation approaches. In this book, a systematic overview and classifi cation on the modeling of DPS is presented fi rst, which includes model reduction, parameter estimation and system identifi cation. Next, a class of block-oriented nonlinear systems in traditional lumped parameter systems (LPS) is extended to DPS, which results in the spatio-temporal Wiener and Hammerstein s

  4. Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Henrik; Johansen, Søren

    1999-01-01

    Some methods for the evaluation of parameter constancy in vector autoregressive (VAR) models are discussed. Two different ways of re-estimating the VAR model are proposed; one in which all parameters are estimated recursively based upon the likelihood function for the first observations, and anot...... be applied to test the constancy of the long-run parameters in the cointegrated VAR-model. All results are illustrated using a model for the term structure of interest rates on US Treasury securities. ...

  5. Determining extreme parameter correlation in ground water models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hill, Mary Cole; Østerby, Ole

    2003-01-01

    In ground water flow system models with hydraulic-head observations but without significant imposed or observed flows, extreme parameter correlation generally exists. As a result, hydraulic conductivity and recharge parameters cannot be uniquely estimated. In complicated problems, such correlation...... correlation coefficients with absolute values that round to 1.00 were good indicators of extreme parameter correlation, but smaller values were not necessarily good indicators of lack of correlation and resulting unique parameter estimates; (2) the SVD may be more difficult to interpret than parameter...

  6. Parameters Estimation of Geographically Weighted Ordinal Logistic Regression (GWOLR) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuhdi, Shaifudin; Retno Sari Saputro, Dewi; Widyaningsih, Purnami

    2017-06-01

    A regression model is the representation of relationship between independent variable and dependent variable. The dependent variable has categories used in the logistic regression model to calculate odds on. The logistic regression model for dependent variable has levels in the logistics regression model is ordinal. GWOLR model is an ordinal logistic regression model influenced the geographical location of the observation site. Parameters estimation in the model needed to determine the value of a population based on sample. The purpose of this research is to parameters estimation of GWOLR model using R software. Parameter estimation uses the data amount of dengue fever patients in Semarang City. Observation units used are 144 villages in Semarang City. The results of research get GWOLR model locally for each village and to know probability of number dengue fever patient categories.

  7. Energy parameters of lasers utilizing erbium glasses sensitized with ytterbium and chromium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lunter, S.G.; Murzin, A.G.; Tolstoi, M.N.; Fedorov, Y.K.; Fromzel' , V.A.

    1984-01-01

    An experimental investigation was made of the effect of sensitizing ytterbium- and erbium-activated lead barium phosphate glasses with Cr/sup 3 +/ ions on the energy parameters of lasing due to the /sup 4/I/sub 13//sub ///sub 2/--/sup 4/I/sub 15//sub ///sub 2/ transition in Er/sup 3 +/ ions (lambda/sub l/ = 1.54 ..mu..). It was found that substantial sensitization was achieved in phosphate glasses for only low concentrations of Cr/sup 3 +/ ions (< or approx. =0.07 wt.%) so that the efficiency of flashlamp-pumped erbium lasers could be improved by a factor of 1.5--4. The optimal conditions for achieving the best energy parameters of these lasers under free-lasing conditions were determined allowing for the spectral and energy distributions of the flashlamp radiation in the absorption range of the coactivator ions. By implementing these conditions using active elements 6 mm in diameter and 85 mm long, containing 17 wt.% Yb/sub 2/O/sub 3/, 0.25 wt.% Er/sub 2/O/sub 3/, and 0.07 wt.% Cr/sub 2/O/sub 3/, it was possible to achieve an efficiency of 1.2% for an electrical pump energy of 1 kJ. This was the highest efficiency achieved so far for erbium lasers. Measurements were made of the efficiency of transfer of the excitation energy from Cr/sup 3 +/ ions to Yb/sup 3 +/ ions at high levels of excitation of the medium.

  8. Sensitivity analysis of alkaline plume modelling: influence of mineralogy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaboreau, S.; Claret, F.; Marty, N.; Burnol, A.; Tournassat, C.; Gaucher, E.C.; Munier, I.; Michau, N.; Cochepin, B.

    2010-01-01

    Document available in extended abstract form only. In the context of a disposal facility for radioactive waste in clayey geological formation, an important modelling effort has been carried out in order to predict the time evolution of interacting cement based (concrete or cement) and clay (argillites and bentonite) materials. The high number of modelling input parameters associated with non negligible uncertainties makes often difficult the interpretation of modelling results. As a consequence, it is necessary to carry out sensitivity analysis on main modelling parameters. In a recent study, Marty et al. (2009) could demonstrate that numerical mesh refinement and consideration of dissolution/precipitation kinetics have a marked effect on (i) the time necessary to numerically clog the initial porosity and (ii) on the final mineral assemblage at the interface. On the contrary, these input parameters have little effect on the extension of the alkaline pH plume. In the present study, we propose to investigate the effects of the considered initial mineralogy on the principal simulation outputs: (1) the extension of the high pH plume, (2) the time to clog the porosity and (3) the alteration front in the clay barrier (extension and nature of mineralogy changes). This was done through sensitivity analysis on both concrete composition and clay mineralogical assemblies since in most published studies, authors considered either only one composition per materials or simplified mineralogy in order to facilitate or to reduce their calculation times. 1D Cartesian reactive transport models were run in order to point out the importance of (1) the crystallinity of concrete phases, (2) the type of clayey materials and (3) the choice of secondary phases that are allowed to precipitate during calculations. Two concrete materials with either nanocrystalline or crystalline phases were simulated in contact with two clayey materials (smectite MX80 or Callovo- Oxfordian argillites). Both

  9. Parameter Sensitivity Analysis on Deformation of Composite Soil-Nailed Wall Using Artificial Neural Networks and Orthogonal Experiment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianbin Hao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the back-propagation algorithm of artificial neural networks (ANNs, this paper establishes an intelligent model, which is used to predict the maximum lateral displacement of composite soil-nailed wall. Some parameters, such as soil cohesive strength, soil friction angle, prestress of anchor cable, soil-nail spacing, soil-nail diameter, soil-nail length, and other factors, are considered in the model. Combined with the in situ test data of composite soil-nail wall reinforcement engineering, the network is trained and the errors are analyzed. Thus it is demonstrated that the method is applicable and feasible in predicting lateral displacement of excavation retained by composite soil-nailed wall. Extended calculations are conducted by using the well-trained intelligent forecast model. Through application of orthogonal table test theory, 25 sets of tests are designed to analyze the sensitivity of factors affecting the maximum lateral displacement of composite soil-nailing wall. The results show that the sensitivity of factors affecting the maximum lateral displacement of composite soil nailing wall, in a descending order, are prestress of anchor cable, soil friction angle, soil cohesion strength, soil-nail spacing, soil-nail length, and soil-nail diameter. The results can provide important reference for the same reinforcement engineering.

  10. Modeling and Parameter Estimation of a Small Wind Generation System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos A. Ramírez Gómez

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The modeling and parameter estimation of a small wind generation system is presented in this paper. The system consists of a wind turbine, a permanent magnet synchronous generator, a three phase rectifier, and a direct current load. In order to estimate the parameters wind speed data are registered in a weather station located in the Fraternidad Campus at ITM. Wind speed data were applied to a reference model programed with PSIM software. From that simulation, variables were registered to estimate the parameters. The wind generation system model together with the estimated parameters is an excellent representation of the detailed model, but the estimated model offers a higher flexibility than the programed model in PSIM software.

  11. Parameter estimation of variable-parameter nonlinear Muskingum model using excel solver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Ling; Zhou, Liwei

    2018-02-01

    Abstract . The Muskingum model is an effective flood routing technology in hydrology and water resources Engineering. With the development of optimization technology, more and more variable-parameter Muskingum models were presented to improve effectiveness of the Muskingum model in recent decades. A variable-parameter nonlinear Muskingum model (NVPNLMM) was proposed in this paper. According to the results of two real and frequently-used case studies by various models, the NVPNLMM could obtain better values of evaluation criteria, which are used to describe the superiority of the estimated outflows and compare the accuracies of flood routing using various models, and the optimal estimated outflows by the NVPNLMM were closer to the observed outflows than the ones by other models.

  12. Control strategies and sensitivity analysis of anthroponotic visceral leishmaniasis model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zamir, Muhammad; Zaman, Gul; Alshomrani, Ali Saleh

    2017-12-01

    This study proposes a mathematical model of Anthroponotic visceral leishmaniasis epidemic with saturated infection rate and recommends different control strategies to manage the spread of this disease in the community. To do this, first, a model formulation is presented to support these strategies, with quantifications of transmission and intervention parameters. To understand the nature of the initial transmission of the disease, the reproduction number [Formula: see text] is obtained by using the next-generation method. On the basis of sensitivity analysis of the reproduction number [Formula: see text], four different control strategies are proposed for managing disease transmission. For quantification of the prevalence period of the disease, a numerical simulation for each strategy is performed and a detailed summary is presented. Disease-free state is obtained with the help of control strategies. The threshold condition for globally asymptotic stability of the disease-free state is found, and it is ascertained that the state is globally stable. On the basis of sensitivity analysis of the reproduction number, it is shown that the disease can be eradicated by using the proposed strategies.

  13. Sensitivity analysis of machine-learning models of hydrologic time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Reilly, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Sensitivity analysis traditionally has been applied to assessing model response to perturbations in model parameters, where the parameters are those model input variables adjusted during calibration. Unlike physics-based models where parameters represent real phenomena, the equivalent of parameters for machine-learning models are simply mathematical "knobs" that are automatically adjusted during training/testing/verification procedures. Thus the challenge of extracting knowledge of hydrologic system functionality from machine-learning models lies in their very nature, leading to the label "black box." Sensitivity analysis of the forcing-response behavior of machine-learning models, however, can provide understanding of how the physical phenomena represented by model inputs affect the physical phenomena represented by model outputs.As part of a previous study, hybrid spectral-decomposition artificial neural network (ANN) models were developed to simulate the observed behavior of hydrologic response contained in multidecadal datasets of lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow. Model inputs used moving window averages (MWA) to represent various frequencies and frequency-band components of time series of rainfall and groundwater use. Using these forcing time series, the MWA-ANN models were trained to predict time series of lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow at 51 sites in central Florida, USA. A time series of sensitivities for each MWA-ANN model was produced by perturbing forcing time-series and computing the change in response time-series per unit change in perturbation. Variations in forcing-response sensitivities are evident between types (lake, groundwater level, or spring), spatially (among sites of the same type), and temporally. Two generally common characteristics among sites are more uniform sensitivities to rainfall over time and notable increases in sensitivities to groundwater usage during significant drought periods.

  14. Odontologic use of copper/aluminum alloys: mitochondrial respiration as sensitive parameter of biocompatibility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodrigues Luiz Erlon A.

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Copper/aluminum alloys are largely utilized in odontological restorations because they are less expensive than gold or platinum. However, tarnishing and important corrosion in intrabuccal prostheses made with copper/aluminum alloys after 28 days of use have been reported. Several kinds of food and beverage may attack and corrode these alloys. Copper is an essential component of several important enzymes directly involved in mitochondrial respiratory metabolism. Aluminum, in contrast, is very toxic and, when absorbed, plasma values as small as 1.65 to 21.55 mg/dl can cause severe lesions to the nervous system, kidneys, and bone marrow. Because mitochondria are extremely sensitive to minimal variation of cellular physiology, the direct relationship between the mitocondrial respiratory chain and cell lesions has been used as a sensitive parameter to evaluate cellular aggression by external agents. This work consisted in the polarographic study of mitochondrial respiratory metabolism of livers and kidneys of rabbits with femoral implants of titanium or copper/aluminum alloy screws. The experimental results obtained did not show physiological modifications of hepatic or renal mitochondria isolated from animals of the three experimental groups, which indicate good biocompatibility of copper/aluminum alloys and suggest their odontological use.

  15. Sensitivity of various bone parameters of laying hens to different daily calcium intakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, T K; Coon, C N

    1990-12-01

    Experiments were designed to examine the sensitivity of various bone parameters of laying hens to different levels of calcium intake (2.0, 2.5, 3.0, 3.5, 4.0, and 4.5 g/day). All birds were individually fed 85 g of feed daily. Dry femur weight (DW) and absolute ash weight (AW) of the whole bone (WB), cortical bone (CB), or medullary bone (MB) were reliable indicators of bone status affected by changes in calcium intake. Expressing AW as a percentage of fat-free dry matter (AW/FFDM) or a percentage of dry weight (AW/DW) showed no effect due to different levels of calcium intake. The correlations between CB-AW/FFDM or CB-AW/DW with calcium intake were .05 and -.07, respectively. Bone ash concentration and bone ash per unit volume (AW/VOL, mg/mL) was very sensitive to different levels of calcium intake; the values increased linearly as calcium intake increased from 2 to 4.5 g/day (WB = 316 to 403; CB = 479 to 571; MB = 133 to 213). Bone-breaking force (BBF), bone-bending moment (BBM), bone stress, and BBF/100 g body weight were equally sensitive in indicating bone mineral reserves due to different levels of calcium intake. Regression equations showed that AW/VOL alone (true for WB, CB, and MB) was capable of predicting BBM well (all with R2 greater than .82). However, AW/FFDM did not have predictive power over BBM (CB-AW/FFDM:R2 less than .001). Using daily calcium intake as the predictor, regression lines for BBM, WB-AW, WB-AW/VOL, CB-AW/VOL, and MB-AW/VOL yielded significant slopes of 1.24 kg.cm, .01 g, 17.11 mg/mL, 16.34 mg/mL, and 16.42 mg/mL, respectively.

  16. Utilising temperature differences as constraints for estimating parameters in a simple climate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodman, Roger W; Karoly, David J; Enting, Ian G

    2010-01-01

    Simple climate models can be used to estimate the global temperature response to increasing greenhouse gases. Changes in the energy balance of the global climate system are represented by equations that necessitate the use of uncertain parameters. The values of these parameters can be estimated from historical observations, model testing, and tuning to more complex models. Efforts have been made at estimating the possible ranges for these parameters. This study continues this process, but demonstrates two new constraints. Previous studies have shown that land-ocean temperature differences are only weakly correlated with global mean temperature for natural internal climate variations. Hence, these temperature differences provide additional information that can be used to help constrain model parameters. In addition, an ocean heat content ratio can also provide a further constraint. A pulse response technique was used to identify relative parameter sensitivity which confirmed the importance of climate sensitivity and ocean vertical diffusivity, but the land-ocean warming ratio and the land-ocean heat exchange coefficient were also found to be important. Experiments demonstrate the utility of the land-ocean temperature difference and ocean heat content ratio for setting parameter values. This work is based on investigations with MAGICC (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change) as the simple climate model.

  17. Do Lumped-Parameter Models Provide the Correct Geometrical Damping?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars

    2007-01-01

    This paper concerns the formulation of lumped-parameter models for rigid footings on homogenous or stratified soil with focus on the horizontal sliding and rocking. Such models only contain a few degrees of freedom, which makes them ideal for inclusion in aero-elastic codes for wind turbines......-parameter models with respect to the prediction of the maximum response during excitation and the geometrical damping related to free vibrations of a footing....

  18. Sensitivity analysis of parameters affecting carbon footprint of fossil fuel power plants based on life cycle assessment scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Dalir

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study a pseudo comprehensive carbon footprint model for fossil fuel power plants is presented. Parameters which their effects are considered in this study include: plant type, fuel type, fuel transmission type, internal consumption of the plant, degradation, site ambient condition, transmission and distribution losses. Investigating internal consumption, degradation and site ambient condition effect on carbon footprint assessment of fossil fuel power plant is the specific feature of the proposed model. To evaluate the model, a sensitivity analysis is performed under different scenarios covering all possible choices for investigated parameters. The results show that carbon footprint of fossil fuel electrical energy that is produced, transmitted and distributed, varies from 321 g CO2 eq/kWh to 980 g CO2 equivalent /kWh. Carbon footprint of combined cycle with natural gas as main fuel is the minimum carbon footprint. Other factors can also cause indicative variation. Fuel type causes a variation of 28%. Ambient condition may change the result up to 13%. Transmission makes the carbon footprint larger by 4%. Internal consumption and degradation influence the result by 2 and 2.5%, respectively. Therefore, to minimize the carbon footprint of fossil fuel electricity, it is recommended to construct natural gas ignited combined cycles in low lands where the temperature is low and relative humidity is high. And the internal consumption is as least as possible and the maintenance and overhaul is as regular as possible.

  19. Sensitivity analysis of geometric errors in additive manufacturing medical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinto, Jose Miguel; Arrieta, Cristobal; Andia, Marcelo E; Uribe, Sergio; Ramos-Grez, Jorge; Vargas, Alex; Irarrazaval, Pablo; Tejos, Cristian

    2015-03-01

    Additive manufacturing (AM) models are used in medical applications for surgical planning, prosthesis design and teaching. For these applications, the accuracy of the AM models is essential. Unfortunately, this accuracy is compromised due to errors introduced by each of the building steps: image acquisition, segmentation, triangulation, printing and infiltration. However, the contribution of each step to the final error remains unclear. We performed a sensitivity analysis comparing errors obtained from a reference with those obtained modifying parameters of each building step. Our analysis considered global indexes to evaluate the overall error, and local indexes to show how this error is distributed along the surface of the AM models. Our results show that the standard building process tends to overestimate the AM models, i.e. models are larger than the original structures. They also show that the triangulation resolution and the segmentation threshold are critical factors, and that the errors are concentrated at regions with high curvatures. Errors could be reduced choosing better triangulation and printing resolutions, but there is an important need for modifying some of the standard building processes, particularly the segmentation algorithms. Copyright © 2015 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Incorporating model parameter uncertainty into inverse treatment planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lian Jun; Xing Lei

    2004-01-01

    Radiobiological treatment planning depends not only on the accuracy of the models describing the dose-response relation of different tumors and normal tissues but also on the accuracy of tissue specific radiobiological parameters in these models. Whereas the general formalism remains the same, different sets of model parameters lead to different solutions and thus critically determine the final plan. Here we describe an inverse planning formalism with inclusion of model parameter uncertainties. This is made possible by using a statistical analysis-based frameset developed by our group. In this formalism, the uncertainties of model parameters, such as the parameter a that describes tissue-specific effect in the equivalent uniform dose (EUD) model, are expressed by probability density function and are included in the dose optimization process. We found that the final solution strongly depends on distribution functions of the model parameters. Considering that currently available models for computing biological effects of radiation are simplistic, and the clinical data used to derive the models are sparse and of questionable quality, the proposed technique provides us with an effective tool to minimize the effect caused by the uncertainties in a statistical sense. With the incorporation of the uncertainties, the technique has potential for us to maximally utilize the available radiobiology knowledge for better IMRT treatment

  1. Sensitivity in forward modeled hyperspectral reflectance due to phytoplankton groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manzo, Ciro; Bassani, Cristiana; Pinardi, Monica; Giardino, Claudia; Bresciani, Mariano

    2016-04-01

    Phytoplankton is an integral part of the ecosystem, affecting trophic dynamics, nutrient cycling, habitat condition, and fisheries resources. The types of phytoplankton and their concentrations are used to describe the status of water and the processes inside of this. This study investigates bio-optical modeling of phytoplankton functional types (PFT) in terms of pigment composition demonstrating the capability of remote sensing to recognize freshwater phytoplankton. In particular, a sensitivity analysis of simulated hyperspectral water reflectance (with band setting of HICO, APEX, EnMAP, PRISMA and Sentinel-3) of productive eutrophic waters of Mantua lakes (Italy) environment is presented. The bio-optical model adopted for simulating the hyperspectral water reflectance takes into account the reflectance dependency on geometric conditions of light field, on inherent optical properties (backscattering and absorption coefficients) and on concentrations of water quality parameters (WQPs). The model works in the 400-750nm wavelength range, while the model parametrization is based on a comprehensive dataset of WQP concentrations and specific inherent optical properties of the study area, collected in field surveys carried out from May to September of 2011 and 2014. The following phytoplankton groups, with their specific absorption coefficients, a*Φi(λ), were used during the simulation: Chlorophyta, Cyanobacteria with phycocyanin, Cyanobacteria and Cryptophytes with phycoerythrin, Diatoms with carotenoids and mixed phytoplankton. The phytoplankton absorption coefficient aΦ(λ) is modelled by multiplying the weighted sum of the PFTs, Σpia*Φi(λ), with the chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a). To highlight the variability of water reflectance due to variation of phytoplankton pigments, the sensitivity analysis was performed by keeping constant the WQPs (i.e., Chl-a=80mg/l, total suspended matter=12.58g/l and yellow substances=0.27m-1). The sensitivity analysis was

  2. Sensitivity Analysis of Core Neutronic Parameters in Electron Accelerator-driven Subcritical Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marziye Ebrahimkhani

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Calculation of the core neutronic parameters is one of the key components in all nuclear reactors. In this research, the energy spectrum and spatial distribution of the neutron flux in a uranium target have been calculated. In addition, sensitivity of the core neutronic parameters in accelerator-driven subcritical advanced liquid metal reactors, such as electron beam energy (Ee and source multiplication coefficient (ks, has been investigated. A Monte Carlo code (MCNPX_2.6 has been used to calculate neutronic parameters such as effective multiplication coefficient (keff, net neutron multiplication (M, neutron yield (Yn/e, energy constant gain (G0, energy gain (G, importance of neutron source (φ∗, axial and radial distributions of neutron flux, and power peaking factor (Pmax/Pave in two axial and radial directions of the reactor core for four fuel loading patterns. According to the results, safety margin and accelerator current (Ie have been decreased in the highest case of ks, but G and φ∗ have increased by 88.9% and 21.6%, respectively. In addition, for LP1 loading pattern, with increasing Ee from 100 MeV up to 1 GeV, Yn/e and G improved by 91.09% and 10.21%, and Ie and Pacc decreased by 91.05% and 10.57%, respectively. The results indicate that placement of the Np–Pu assemblies on the periphery allows for a consistent keff because the Np–Pu assemblies experience less burn-up.

  3. A method for model identification and parameter estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bambach, M; Heinkenschloss, M; Herty, M

    2013-01-01

    We propose and analyze a new method for the identification of a parameter-dependent model that best describes a given system. This problem arises, for example, in the mathematical modeling of material behavior where several competing constitutive equations are available to describe a given material. In this case, the models are differential equations that arise from the different constitutive equations, and the unknown parameters are coefficients in the constitutive equations. One has to determine the best-suited constitutive equations for a given material and application from experiments. We assume that the true model is one of the N possible parameter-dependent models. To identify the correct model and the corresponding parameters, we can perform experiments, where for each experiment we prescribe an input to the system and observe a part of the system state. Our approach consists of two stages. In the first stage, for each pair of models we determine the experiment, i.e. system input and observation, that best differentiates between the two models, and measure the distance between the two models. Then we conduct N(N − 1) or, depending on the approach taken, N(N − 1)/2 experiments and use the result of the experiments as well as the previously computed model distances to determine the true model. We provide sufficient conditions on the model distances and measurement errors which guarantee that our approach identifies the correct model. Given the model, we identify the corresponding model parameters in the second stage. The problem in the second stage is a standard parameter estimation problem and we use a method suitable for the given application. We illustrate our approach on three examples, including one where the models are elliptic partial differential equations with different parameterized right-hand sides and an example where we identify the constitutive equation in a problem from computational viscoplasticity. (paper)

  4. [Weight parameters of water quality impact and risk grade determination of water environmental sensitive spots in Jiashan].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Rong-Rong; Pang, Yong; Zhang, Qian; Chen, Ke; Sun, Ming-Yuan

    2012-07-01

    For the safety of the water environment in Jiashan county in Zhejiang Province, one-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality models are established based on three large-scale monitoring of hydrology and water quality in Jiashan county, three water environmental sensitive spots including Hongqitang dam Chijia hydrological station and Luxie pond are selected to investigate weight parameters of water quality impact and risk grade determination. Results indicate as follows (1) Internal pollution impact in Jiashan areas was greater than the external, the average weight parameters of internal chemical oxygen demand (COD) pollution is 55.3%, internal ammonia nitrogen (NH(4+)-N) is 67.4%, internal total phosphor (TP) is 63.1%. Non-point pollution impact in Jiashan areas was greater than point pollution impact, the average weight parameters of non-point COD pollutions is 53.7%, non-point NH(4+)-N is 65.9%, non-point TP is 57.8%. (2) The risk of Hongqitang dam and Chijia hydrological station are in the middle risk. The risk of Luxie pond is also in the middle risk in August, and in April and December the risk of Luxie pond is low. The strategic decision will be suggested to guarantee water environment security and social and economic security in the study.

  5. Optimal parameters for the FFA-Beddoes dynamic stall model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bjoerck, A.; Mert, M. [FFA, The Aeronautical Research Institute of Sweden, Bromma (Sweden); Madsen, H.A. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)

    1999-03-01

    Unsteady aerodynamic effects, like dynamic stall, must be considered in calculation of dynamic forces for wind turbines. Models incorporated in aero-elastic programs are of semi-empirical nature. Resulting aerodynamic forces therefore depend on values used for the semi-empiricial parameters. In this paper a study of finding appropriate parameters to use with the Beddoes-Leishman model is discussed. Minimisation of the `tracking error` between results from 2D wind tunnel tests and simulation with the model is used to find optimum values for the parameters. The resulting optimum parameters show a large variation from case to case. Using these different sets of optimum parameters in the calculation of blade vibrations, give rise to quite different predictions of aerodynamic damping which is discussed. (au)

  6. A distributed approach for parameters estimation in System Biology models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosca, E.; Merelli, I.; Alfieri, R.; Milanesi, L.

    2009-01-01

    Due to the lack of experimental measurements, biological variability and experimental errors, the value of many parameters of the systems biology mathematical models is yet unknown or uncertain. A possible computational solution is the parameter estimation, that is the identification of the parameter values that determine the best model fitting respect to experimental data. We have developed an environment to distribute each run of the parameter estimation algorithm on a different computational resource. The key feature of the implementation is a relational database that allows the user to swap the candidate solutions among the working nodes during the computations. The comparison of the distributed implementation with the parallel one showed that the presented approach enables a faster and better parameter estimation of systems biology models.

  7. Variance-based sensitivity indices for models with dependent inputs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mara, Thierry A.; Tarantola, Stefano

    2012-01-01

    Computational models are intensively used in engineering for risk analysis or prediction of future outcomes. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are of great help in these purposes. Although several methods exist to perform variance-based sensitivity analysis of model output with independent inputs only a few are proposed in the literature in the case of dependent inputs. This is explained by the fact that the theoretical framework for the independent case is set and a univocal set of variance-based sensitivity indices is defined. In the present work, we propose a set of variance-based sensitivity indices to perform sensitivity analysis of models with dependent inputs. These measures allow us to distinguish between the mutual dependent contribution and the independent contribution of an input to the model response variance. Their definition relies on a specific orthogonalisation of the inputs and ANOVA-representations of the model output. In the applications, we show the interest of the new sensitivity indices for model simplification setting. - Highlights: ► Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are of great help in engineering. ► Several methods exist to perform variance-based sensitivity analysis of model output with independent inputs. ► We define a set of variance-based sensitivity indices for models with dependent inputs. ► Inputs mutual contributions are distinguished from their independent contributions. ► Analytical and computational tests are performed and discussed.

  8. Do Lumped-Parameter Models Provide the Correct Geometrical Damping?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars

    This paper concerns the formulation of lumped-parameter models for rigid footings on homogenous or stratified soil. Such models only contain a few degrees of freedom, which makes them ideal for inclusion in aero-elastic codes for wind turbines and other models applied to fast evaluation of struct......This paper concerns the formulation of lumped-parameter models for rigid footings on homogenous or stratified soil. Such models only contain a few degrees of freedom, which makes them ideal for inclusion in aero-elastic codes for wind turbines and other models applied to fast evaluation...... response during excitation and the geometrical damping related to free vibrations of a hexagonal footing. The optimal order of a lumped-parameter model is determined for each degree of freedom, i.e. horizontal and vertical translation as well as torsion and rocking. In particular, the necessity of coupling...

  9. Parameter estimation for groundwater models under uncertain irrigation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demissie, Yonas; Valocchi, Albert J.; Cai, Ximing; Brozovic, Nicholas; Senay, Gabriel; Gebremichael, Mekonnen

    2015-01-01

    The success of modeling groundwater is strongly influenced by the accuracy of the model parameters that are used to characterize the subsurface system. However, the presence of uncertainty and possibly bias in groundwater model source/sink terms may lead to biased estimates of model parameters and model predictions when the standard regression-based inverse modeling techniques are used. This study first quantifies the levels of bias in groundwater model parameters and predictions due to the presence of errors in irrigation data. Then, a new inverse modeling technique called input uncertainty weighted least-squares (IUWLS) is presented for unbiased estimation of the parameters when pumping and other source/sink data are uncertain. The approach uses the concept of generalized least-squares method with the weight of the objective function depending on the level of pumping uncertainty and iteratively adjusted during the parameter optimization process. We have conducted both analytical and numerical experiments, using irrigation pumping data from the Republican River Basin in Nebraska, to evaluate the performance of ordinary least-squares (OLS) and IUWLS calibration methods under different levels of uncertainty of irrigation data and calibration conditions. The result from the OLS method shows the presence of statistically significant (p model predictions that persist despite calibrating the models to different calibration data and sample sizes. However, by directly accounting for the irrigation pumping uncertainties during the calibration procedures, the proposed IUWLS is able to minimize the bias effectively without adding significant computational burden to the calibration processes.

  10. Transformations among CE–CVM model parameters for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Unknown

    parameters which exclusively represent interactions of the higher order systems. Such a procedure is presen- ted in detail in this communication. Furthermore, the details of transformations required to express the model parameters in one basis from those defined in another basis for the same system are also presented.

  11. Transformations among CE–CVM model parameters for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ... of parameters which exclusively represent interactions of the higher order systems. Such a procedure is presented in detail in this communication. Furthermore, the details of transformations required to express the model parameters in one basis from those defined in another basis for the same system are also presented.

  12. Prior distributions for item parameters in IRT models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Matteucci, M.; S. Mignani, Prof.; Veldkamp, Bernard P.

    2012-01-01

    The focus of this article is on the choice of suitable prior distributions for item parameters within item response theory (IRT) models. In particular, the use of empirical prior distributions for item parameters is proposed. Firstly, regression trees are implemented in order to build informative

  13. Sensitivity analyses of a global flood model in different geoclimatic regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moylan, C.; Neal, J. C.; Freer, J. E.; Pianosi, F.; Wagener, T.; Sampson, C. C.; Smith, A.

    2017-12-01

    Flood models producing global hazard maps now exist, although with significant variation in the modelled hazard extent. Besides explicit structural differences, reasons for this variation is unknown. Understanding the behaviour of these global flood models is necessary to determine how they can be further developed. Preliminary sensitivity analysis was performed using Morris method on the Bristol global flood model, which has 37 parameters, required to translate the remotely sensed data into input for the underlying hydrodynamic model. This number of parameters implies an excess of complexity for flood modelling and should ideally be mitigated. The analysis showed an order of magnitude difference in parameter sensitivities, when comparing total flooded extent. It also showed the most important parameters' influence to be highly interactive rather than just direct; there were surprises in expectation of which parameters are the most important. Despite these findings, conclusions about the model are limited due to the fixed geoclimatic features of the location analysed. Hence more locations with varied geoclimatic characteristics must be chosen, so the consistencies and deviations of parameter sensitivities across these features become quantifiable. Locations are selected using a novel sampling technique, which aggregates the input data of a domain into representative metrics of the geoclimatic features, hypothesised to correlate with one or more parameters. Combinations of these metrics are sampled across a range of geoclimatic areas, and the sensitivities found are correlated with the sampled metrics. From this work, we find the main influences on flood risk prediction at the global scale for the used model structure, which as a methodology is transferable to the other global flood models.

  14. An optimally tuned ensemble of the "eb_go_gs" configuration of GENIE: parameter sensitivity and bifurcations in the Atlantic overturning circulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Marsh

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The key physical parameters for the "eb_go_gs" configuration of version 2.7.4 of GENIE, an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC, are tuned using a multi-objective genetic algorithm. An ensemble of 90 parameter sets is tuned using two ocean and two atmospheric state variables as targets. These are "Pareto-optimal", representing a range of trade-offs between the four tuning targets. For the leading five parameter sets, simulations are evaluated alongside a simulation with untuned "default" parameters, comparing selected variables and diagnostics that describe the state of the atmosphere, ocean and sea ice. Further experiments are undertaken with these selected parameter sets to compare equilibrium climate sensitivities and transient climate responses. The pattern of warming under doubled CO2 is strongly shaped by changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC, while the pattern and rate of warming under rising CO2 is closely linked to changing sea ice extent. One of the five tuned parameter sets is identified as marginally optimal, and the objective function (error landscape is further analysed in the vicinity of the tuned values of this parameter set. "Cliffs" along some dimensions motivate closer inspection of corresponding variations in the AMOC. This reveals that bifurcations in the AMOC are highly sensitive to parameters that are not typically associated with MOC stability. Specifically, the state of the AMOC is sensitive to parameters governing the wind-driven circulation and atmospheric heat transport. For the GENIE configuration presented here, the marginally optimal parameter set is recommended for single simulations, although the leading five parameter sets may be used in ensemble mode to admit a constrained degree of parametric uncertainty in climate prediction.

  15. Evaluation of parameter sensitivities for flux-switching permanent magnet machines based on simplified equivalent magnetic circuit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gan Zhang

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Most of the published papers regarding the design of flux-switching permanent magnet machines are focused on the analysis and optimization of electromagnetic or mechanical behaviors, however, the evaluate of the parameter sensitivities have not been covered, which contrarily, is the main contribution of this paper. Based on the finite element analysis (FEA and simplified equivalent magnetic circuit, the method proposed in this paper enables the influences of parameters on the electromagnetic performances, i.e. the parameter sensitivities, to be given by equations. The FEA results are also validated by experimental measurements.

  16. Retrospective forecast of ETAS model with daily parameters estimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falcone, Giuseppe; Murru, Maura; Console, Rodolfo; Marzocchi, Warner; Zhuang, Jiancang

    2016-04-01

    We present a retrospective ETAS (Epidemic Type of Aftershock Sequence) model based on the daily updating of free parameters during the background, the learning and the test phase of a seismic sequence. The idea was born after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The CSEP (Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability) Center in Japan provided an appropriate testing benchmark for the five 1-day submitted models. Of all the models, only one was able to successfully predict the number of events that really happened. This result was verified using both the real time and the revised catalogs. The main cause of the failure was in the underestimation of the forecasted events, due to model parameters maintained fixed during the test. Moreover, the absence in the learning catalog of an event similar to the magnitude of the mainshock (M9.0), which drastically changed the seismicity in the area, made the learning parameters not suitable to describe the real seismicity. As an example of this methodological development we show the evolution of the model parameters during the last two strong seismic sequences in Italy: the 2009 L'Aquila and the 2012 Reggio Emilia episodes. The achievement of the model with daily updated parameters is compared with that of same model where the parameters remain fixed during the test time.

  17. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaylie Rasmuson; Kurt Rautenstrauch

    2003-06-20

    This analysis is one of nine technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. It documents input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCF). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in the biosphere Technical Work Plan (TWP, BSC 2003a). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development and therefore not available at the time this document is issued. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003b) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters. This analysis report, ANL-MGR-MD-000006, ''Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. This report defines and justifies values for twelve parameters required in the biosphere model. These parameters are related to use of contaminated groundwater to grow crops. The parameter values recommended in this report are used in the soil, plant, and carbon-14 submodels of the ERMYN.

  18. Sensitivity Analysis of Wind Plant Performance to Key Turbine Design Parameters: A Systems Engineering Approach; Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dykes, K.; Ning, A.; King, R.; Graf, P.; Scott, G.; Veers, P.

    2014-02-01

    This paper introduces the development of a new software framework for research, design, and development of wind energy systems which is meant to 1) represent a full wind plant including all physical and nonphysical assets and associated costs up to the point of grid interconnection, 2) allow use of interchangeable models of varying fidelity for different aspects of the system, and 3) support system level multidisciplinary analyses and optimizations. This paper describes the design of the overall software capability and applies it to a global sensitivity analysis of wind turbine and plant performance and cost. The analysis was performed using three different model configurations involving different levels of fidelity, which illustrate how increasing fidelity can preserve important system interactions that build up to overall system performance and cost. Analyses were performed for a reference wind plant based on the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's 5-MW reference turbine at a mid-Atlantic offshore location within the United States.

  19. Stochastic hyperelastic modeling considering dependency of material parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caylak, Ismail; Penner, Eduard; Dridger, Alex; Mahnken, Rolf

    2018-03-01

    This paper investigates the uncertainty of a hyperelastic model by treating random material parameters as stochastic variables. For its stochastic discretization a polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) is used. An important aspect in our work is the consideration of stochastic dependencies in the stochastic modeling of Ogden's material model. To this end, artificial experiments are generated using the auto-regressive moving average process based on real experiments. The parameter identification for all data provides statistics of Ogden's material parameters, which are subsequently used for stochastic modeling. Stochastic dependencies are incorporated into the PCE using a Nataf transformation from dependent distributed random variables to independent standard normal distributed ones. The representative numerical example shows that our proposed method adequately takes into account the stochastic dependencies of Ogden's material parameters.

  20. A compact cyclic plasticity model with parameter evolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krenk, Steen; Tidemann, L.

    2017-01-01

    by the Armstrong–Frederick model, contained as a special case of the present model for a particular choice of the shape parameter. In contrast to previous work, where shaping the stress-strain loops is derived from multiple internal stress states, this effect is here represented by a single parameter......The paper presents a compact model for cyclic plasticity based on energy in terms of external and internal variables, and plastic yielding described by kinematic hardening and a flow potential with an additive term controlling the nonlinear cyclic hardening. The model is basically described by five...... parameters: external and internal stiffness, a yield stress and a limiting ultimate stress, and finally a parameter controlling the gradual development of plastic deformation. Calibration against numerous experimental results indicates that typically larger plastic strains develop than predicted...

  1. Parameter Estimation for the Thurstone Case III Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackay, David B.; Chaiy, Seoil

    1982-01-01

    The ability of three estimation criteria to recover parameters of the Thurstone Case V and Case III models from comparative judgment data was investigated via Monte Carlo techniques. Significant differences in recovery are shown to exist. (Author/JKS)

  2. Sensitivity analysis of coupled processes and parameters on the performance of enhanced geothermal systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandey, S N; Vishal, Vikram

    2017-12-06

    3-D modeling of coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) processes in enhanced geothermal systems using the control volume finite element code was done. In a first, a comparative analysis on the effects of coupled processes, operational parameters and reservoir parameters on heat extraction was conducted. We found that significant temperature drop and fluid overpressure occurred inside the reservoirs/fracture that affected the transport behavior of the fracture. The spatio-temporal variations of fracture aperture greatly impacted the thermal drawdown and consequently the net energy output. The results showed that maximum aperture evolution occurred near the injection zone instead of the production zone. Opening of the fracture reduced the injection pressure required to circulate a fixed mass of water. The thermal breakthrough and heat extraction strongly depend on the injection mass flow rate, well distances, reservoir permeability and geothermal gradients. High permeability caused higher water loss, leading to reduced heat extraction. From the results of TH vs THM process simulations, we conclude that appropriate coupling is vital and can impact the estimates of net heat extraction. This study can help in identifying the critical operational parameters, and process optimization for enhanced energy extraction from a geothermal system.

  3. Biological optimization of simultaneous boost on intra-prostatic lesions (DILs): sensitivity to TCP parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azzeroni, R; Maggio, A; Fiorino, C; Mangili, P; Cozzarini, C; De Cobelli, F; Di Muzio, N G; Calandrino, R

    2013-11-01

    The aim of this investigation was to explore the potential of biological optimization in the case of simultaneous integrated boost on intra-prostatic dominant lesions (DIL) and evaluating the impact of TCP parameters uncertainty. Different combination of TCP parameters (TD50 and γ50 in the Poisson-like model), were considered for DILs and the prostate outside DILs (CTV) for 7 intermediate/high-risk prostate patients. The aim was to maximize TCP while constraining NTCPs below 5% for all organs at risk. TCP values were highly depending on the parameters used and ranged between 38.4% and 99.9%; the optimized median physical doses were in the range 94-116 Gy and 69-77 Gy for DIL and CTV respectively. TCP values were correlated with the overlap PTV-rectum and the minimum distance between rectum and DIL. In conclusion, biological optimization for selective dose escalation is feasible and suggests prescribed dose around 90-120 Gy to the DILs. The obtained result is critically depending on the assumptions concerning the higher radioresistence in the DILs. In case of very resistant clonogens into the DIL, it may be difficult to maximize TCP to acceptable levels without violating NTCP constraints. Copyright © 2012 Associazione Italiana di Fisica Medica. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Partial sum approaches to mathematical parameters of some growth models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korkmaz, Mehmet

    2016-04-01

    Growth model is fitted by evaluating the mathematical parameters, a, b and c. In this study, the method of partial sums were used. For finding the mathematical parameters, firstly three partial sums were used, secondly four partial sums were used, thirdly five partial sums were used and finally N partial sums were used. The purpose of increasing the partial decomposition is to produce a better phase model which gives a better expected value by minimizing error sum of squares in the interval used.

  5. Parameter estimation in stochastic rainfall-runoff models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Harpa; Madsen, Henrik; Palsson, Olafur Petur

    2006-01-01

    A parameter estimation method for stochastic rainfall-runoff models is presented. The model considered in the paper is a conceptual stochastic model, formulated in continuous-discrete state space form. The model is small and a fully automatic optimization is, therefore, possible for estimating all....... For a comparison the parameters are also estimated by an output error method, where the sum of squared simulation error is minimized. The former methodology is optimal for short-term prediction whereas the latter is optimal for simulations. Hence, depending on the purpose it is possible to select whether...... the parameter values are optimal for simulation or prediction. The data originates from Iceland and the model is designed for Icelandic conditions, including a snow routine for mountainous areas. The model demands only two input data series, precipitation and temperature and one output data series...

  6. Luminescence model with quantum impact parameter for low energy ions

    CERN Document Server

    Cruz-Galindo, H S; Martínez-Davalos, A; Belmont-Moreno, E; Galindo, S

    2002-01-01

    We have modified an analytical model of induced light production by energetic ions interacting in scintillating materials. The original model is based on the distribution of energy deposited by secondary electrons produced along the ion's track. The range of scattered electrons, and thus the energy distribution, depends on a classical impact parameter between the electron and the ion's track. The only adjustable parameter of the model is the quenching density rho sub q. The modification here presented, consists in proposing a quantum impact parameter that leads to a better fit of the model to the experimental data at low incident ion energies. The light output response of CsI(Tl) detectors to low energy ions (<3 MeV/A) is fitted with the modified model and comparison is made to the original model.

  7. Oral sensitization to food proteins: A Brown Norway rat model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knippels, L.M.J.; Penninks, A.H.; Spanhaak, S.; Houben, G.F.

    1998-01-01

    Background: Although several in vivo antigenicity assays using parenteral immunization are operational, no adequate enteral sensitization models are available to study food allergy and allergenicity of food proteins. Objective: This paper describes the development of an enteral model for food

  8. Parametric sensitivity analysis of an agro-economic model of management of irrigation water

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Ouadi, Ihssan; Ouazar, Driss; El Menyari, Younesse

    2015-04-01

    The current work aims to build an analysis and decision support tool for policy options concerning the optimal allocation of water resources, while allowing a better reflection on the issue of valuation of water by the agricultural sector in particular. Thus, a model disaggregated by farm type was developed for the rural town of Ait Ben Yacoub located in the east Morocco. This model integrates economic, agronomic and hydraulic data and simulates agricultural gross margin across in this area taking into consideration changes in public policy and climatic conditions, taking into account the competition for collective resources. To identify the model input parameters that influence over the results of the model, a parametric sensitivity analysis is performed by the "One-Factor-At-A-Time" approach within the "Screening Designs" method. Preliminary results of this analysis show that among the 10 parameters analyzed, 6 parameters affect significantly the objective function of the model, it is in order of influence: i) Coefficient of crop yield response to water, ii) Average daily gain in weight of livestock, iii) Exchange of livestock reproduction, iv) maximum yield of crops, v) Supply of irrigation water and vi) precipitation. These 6 parameters register sensitivity indexes ranging between 0.22 and 1.28. Those results show high uncertainties on these parameters that can dramatically skew the results of the model or the need to pay particular attention to their estimates. Keywords: water, agriculture, modeling, optimal allocation, parametric sensitivity analysis, Screening Designs, One-Factor-At-A-Time, agricultural policy, climate change.

  9. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    K. Rasmuson; K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-01-01

    This analysis is one of 10 technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) (i.e., the biosphere model). It documents development of agricultural and environmental input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters

  10. sensitivity analysis on flexible road pavement life cycle cost model

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    Sensitivity analysis is a tool used in the assessment of a model's performance. This study examined the application of sensitivity analysis on a developed flexible pavement life cycle cost model using varying discount rate. The study area is Effurun, Uvwie Local Government Area of Delta State of Nigeria. In order to ...

  11. Combined Estimation of Hydrogeologic Conceptual Model and Parameter Uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyer, Philip D.; Ye, Ming; Neuman, Shlomo P.; Cantrell, Kirk J.

    2004-03-01

    The objective of the research described in this report is the development and application of a methodology for comprehensively assessing the hydrogeologic uncertainties involved in dose assessment, including uncertainties associated with conceptual models, parameters, and scenarios. This report describes and applies a statistical method to quantitatively estimate the combined uncertainty in model predictions arising from conceptual model and parameter uncertainties. The method relies on model averaging to combine the predictions of a set of alternative models. Implementation is driven by the available data. When there is minimal site-specific data the method can be carried out with prior parameter estimates based on generic data and subjective prior model probabilities. For sites with observations of system behavior (and optionally data characterizing model parameters), the method uses model calibration to update the prior parameter estimates and model probabilities based on the correspondence between model predictions and site observations. The set of model alternatives can contain both simplified and complex models, with the requirement that all models be based on the same set of data. The method was applied to the geostatistical modeling of air permeability at a fractured rock site. Seven alternative variogram models of log air permeability were considered to represent data from single-hole pneumatic injection tests in six boreholes at the site. Unbiased maximum likelihood estimates of variogram and drift parameters were obtained for each model. Standard information criteria provided an ambiguous ranking of the models, which would not justify selecting one of them and discarding all others as is commonly done in practice. Instead, some of the models were eliminated based on their negligibly small updated probabilities and the rest were used to project the measured log permeabilities by kriging onto a rock volume containing the six boreholes. These four

  12. Sensitivity-guided reduction of parametric dimensionality for multi-objective calibration of watershed models

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Werkhoven, Kathryn; Wagener, Thorsten; Reed, Patrick; Tang, Yong

    2009-08-01

    Problem complexity for watershed model calibration is heavily dependent on the number of parameters that can be identified during model calibration. This study investigates the use of global sensitivity analysis as a screening tool to reduce the parametric dimensionality of multi-objective hydrological model calibration problems while maximizing the information extracted from hydrological response data. This study shows that by expanding calibration problem formulations beyond traditional, statistical error metrics to also include metrics that capture indices or signatures of hydrological function, it is possible to reduce the complexity of calibration while maintaining high quality model predictions. The sensitivity-guided calibration is demonstrated using the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) conceptual rainfall-runoff model of moderate complexity (i.e., up to 14 freely varying parameters). Using both statistical and hydrological metrics, optimization results demonstrate that parameters controlling at least 20% of the model output variance (through individual effects and interactions) should be included in the calibration process. This threshold generally yields 30-40% reductions in the number of SAC-SMA parameters requiring calibration - setting the others to a priori values - while maintaining high quality predictions. Two parameters are recommended to be calibrated in all cases (percent impervious area and lower zone tension water storage), three parameters are needed in drier watersheds (additional impervious area, riparian zone vegetation, and percent of percolation going to tension storage), and the lower zone parameters are crucial unless the watershed is very dry. Overall, this study demonstrates that a coupled, multi-objective sensitivity and calibration analysis better captures differences between watersheds during model calibration and serves to maximize the value of available watershed response time series. These contributions are

  13. Sensitivity analysis of hydraulic and thermal parameters inducing anomalous heat flow in the Lower Yarmouk Gorge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goretzki, Nora; Inbar, Nimrod; Kühn, Michael; Möller, Peter; Rosenthal, Eliyahu; Schneider, Michael; Siebert, Christian; Magri, Fabien

    2016-04-01

    The Lower Yarmouk Gorge, at the border between Israel and Jordan, is characterized by an anomalous temperature gradient of 46 °C/km. Numerical simulations of thermally-driven flow show that ascending thermal waters are the result of mixed convection, i.e. the interaction between the regional flow from the surrounding heights and buoyant flow within permeable faults [1]. Those models were calibrated against available temperature logs by running several forward problems (FP), with a classic "trial and error" method. In the present study, inverse problems (IP) are applied to find alternative parameter distributions that also lead to the observed thermal anomalies. The investigated physical parameters are hydraulic conductivity and thermal conductivity. To solve the IP, the PEST® code [2] is applied via the graphical interface FEPEST® in FEFLOW® [3]. The results show that both hydraulic and thermal conductivity are consistent with the values determined with the trial and error calibrations, which precede this study. However, the IP indicates that the hydraulic conductivity of the Senonian Paleocene aquitard can be 8.54*10-3 m/d, which is three times lower than the originally estimated value in [1]. Moreover, the IP suggests that the hydraulic conductivity in the faults can increase locally up to 0.17 m/d. These highly permeable areas can be interpreted as local damage zones at the faults/units intersections. They can act as lateral pathways in the deep aquifers that allow deep outflow of thermal water. This presentation provides an example about the application of FP and IP to infer a wide range of parameter values that reproduce observed environmental issues. [1] Magri F, Inbar N, Siebert C, Rosenthal E, Guttman J, Möller P (2015) Transient simulations of large-scale hydrogeological processes causing temperature and salinity anomalies in the Tiberias Basin. Journal of Hydrology, 520, 342-355 [2] Doherty J (2010) PEST: Model-Independent Parameter Estimation. user

  14. Position-sensitive transition edge sensor modeling and results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hammock, Christina E-mail: chammock@milkyway.gsfc.nasa.gov; Figueroa-Feliciano, Enectali; Apodaca, Emmanuel; Bandler, Simon; Boyce, Kevin; Chervenak, Jay; Finkbeiner, Fred; Kelley, Richard; Lindeman, Mark; Porter, Scott; Saab, Tarek; Stahle, Caroline

    2004-03-11

    We report the latest design and experimental results for a Position-Sensitive Transition-Edge Sensor (PoST). The PoST is motivated by the desire to achieve a larger field-of-view without increasing the number of readout channels. A PoST consists of a one-dimensional array of X-ray absorbers connected on each end to a Transition Edge Sensor (TES). Position differentiation is achieved through a comparison of pulses between the two TESs and X-ray energy is inferred from a sum of the two signals. Optimizing such a device involves studying the available parameter space which includes device properties such as heat capacity and thermal conductivity as well as TES read-out circuitry parameters. We present results for different regimes of operation and the effects on energy resolution, throughput, and position differentiation. Results and implications from a non-linear model developed to study the saturation effects unique to PoSTs are also presented.

  15. SPOTting Model Parameters Using a Ready-Made Python Package.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Houska

    Full Text Available The choice for specific parameter estimation methods is often more dependent on its availability than its performance. We developed SPOTPY (Statistical Parameter Optimization Tool, an open source python package containing a comprehensive set of methods typically used to calibrate, analyze and optimize parameters for a wide range of ecological models. SPOTPY currently contains eight widely used algorithms, 11 objective functions, and can sample from eight parameter distributions. SPOTPY has a model-independent structure and can be run in parallel from the workstation to large computation clusters using the Message Passing Interface (MPI. We tested SPOTPY in five different case studies to parameterize the Rosenbrock, Griewank and Ackley functions, a one-dimensional physically based soil moisture routine, where we searched for parameters of the van Genuchten-Mualem function and a calibration of a biogeochemistry model with different objective functions. The case studies reveal that the implemented SPOTPY methods can be used for any model with just a minimal amount of code for maximal power of parameter optimization. They further show the benefit of having one package at hand that includes number of well performing parameter search methods, since not every case study can be solved sufficiently with every algorithm or every objective function.

  16. Simultaneous inference for model averaging of derived parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Signe Marie; Ritz, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Model averaging is a useful approach for capturing uncertainty due to model selection. Currently, this uncertainty is often quantified by means of approximations that do not easily extend to simultaneous inference. Moreover, in practice there is a need for both model averaging and simultaneous...... inference for derived parameters calculated in an after-fitting step. We propose a method for obtaining asymptotically correct standard errors for one or several model-averaged estimates of derived parameters and for obtaining simultaneous confidence intervals that asymptotically control the family...

  17. Updating parameters of the chicken processing line model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kurowicka, Dorota; Nauta, Maarten; Jozwiak, Katarzyna

    2010-01-01

    A mathematical model of chicken processing that quantitatively describes the transmission of Campylobacter on chicken carcasses from slaughter to chicken meat product has been developed in Nauta et al. (2005). This model was quantified with expert judgment. Recent availability of data allows...... updating parameters of the model to better describe processes observed in slaughterhouses. We propose Bayesian updating as a suitable technique to update expert judgment with microbiological data. Berrang and Dickens’s data are used to demonstrate performance of this method in updating parameters...... of the chicken processing line model....

  18. Lumped-Parameter Models for Windturbine Footings on Layered Ground

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars

    The design of modern wind turbines is typically based on lifetime analyses using aeroelastic codes. In this regard, the impedance of the foundations must be described accurately without increasing the overall size of the computationalmodel significantly. This may be obtained by the fitting...... of a lumped-parameter model to the results of a rigorous model or experimental results. In this paper, guidelines are given for the formulation of such lumped-parameter models and examples are given in which the models are utilised for the analysis of a wind turbine supported by a surface footing on a layered...

  19. Parameter estimation and model selection in computational biology.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriele Lillacci

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available A central challenge in computational modeling of biological systems is the determination of the model parameters. Typically, only a fraction of the parameters (such as kinetic rate constants are experimentally measured, while the rest are often fitted. The fitting process is usually based on experimental time course measurements of observables, which are used to assign parameter values that minimize some measure of the error between these measurements and the corresponding model prediction. The measurements, which can come from immunoblotting assays, fluorescent markers, etc., tend to be very noisy and taken at a limited number of time points. In this work we present a new approach to the problem of parameter selection of biological models. We show how one can use a dynamic recursive estimator, known as extended Kalman filter, to arrive at estimates of the model parameters. The proposed method follows. First, we use a variation of the Kalman filter that is particularly well suited to biological applications to obtain a first guess for the unknown parameters. Secondly, we employ an a posteriori identifiability test to check the reliability of the estimates. Finally, we solve an optimization problem to refine the first guess in case it should not be accurate enough. The final estimates are guaranteed to be statistically consistent with the measurements. Furthermore, we show how the same tools can be used to discriminate among alternate models of the same biological process. We demonstrate these ideas by applying our methods to two examples, namely a model of the heat shock response in E. coli, and a model of a synthetic gene regulation system. The methods presented are quite general and may be applied to a wide class of biological systems where noisy measurements are used for parameter estimation or model selection.

  20. Variations in environmental tritium doses due to meteorological data averaging and uncertainties in pathway model parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kock, A.

    1996-05-01

    The objectives of this research are: (1) to calculate and compare off site doses from atmospheric tritium releases at the Savannah River Site using monthly versus 5 year meteorological data and annual source terms, including additional seasonal and site specific parameters not included in present annual assessments; and (2) to calculate the range of the above dose estimates based on distributions in model parameters given by uncertainty estimates found in the literature. Consideration will be given to the sensitivity of parameters given in former studies

  1. Variations in environmental tritium doses due to meteorological data averaging and uncertainties in pathway model parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kock, A.

    1996-05-01

    The objectives of this research are: (1) to calculate and compare off site doses from atmospheric tritium releases at the Savannah River Site using monthly versus 5 year meteorological data and annual source terms, including additional seasonal and site specific parameters not included in present annual assessments; and (2) to calculate the range of the above dose estimates based on distributions in model parameters given by uncertainty estimates found in the literature. Consideration will be given to the sensitivity of parameters given in former studies.

  2. Global sensitivity analysis for an integrated model for simulation of nitrogen dynamics under the irrigation with treated wastewater.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Huaiwei; Zhu, Yan; Yang, Jinzhong; Wang, Xiugui

    2015-11-01

    As the amount of water resources that can be utilized for agricultural production is limited, the reuse of treated wastewater (TWW) for irrigation is a practical solution to alleviate the water crisis in China. The process-based models, which estimate nitrogen dynamics under irrigation, are widely used to investigate the best irrigation and fertilization management practices in developed and developing countries. However, for modeling such a complex system for wastewater reuse, it is critical to conduct a sensitivity analysis to determine numerous input parameters and their interactions that contribute most to the variance of the model output for the development of process-based model. In this study, application of a comprehensive global sensitivity analysis for nitrogen dynamics was reported. The objective was to compare different global sensitivity analysis (GSA) on the key parameters for different model predictions of nitrogen and crop growth modules. The analysis was performed as two steps. Firstly, Morris screening method, which is one of the most commonly used screening method, was carried out to select the top affected parameters; then, a variance-based global sensitivity analysis method (extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test, EFAST) was used to investigate more thoroughly the effects of selected parameters on model predictions. The results of GSA showed that strong parameter interactions exist in crop nitrogen uptake, nitrogen denitrification, crop yield, and evapotranspiration modules. Among all parameters, one of the soil physical-related parameters named as the van Genuchten air entry parameter showed the largest sensitivity effects on major model predictions. These results verified that more effort should be focused on quantifying soil parameters for more accurate model predictions in nitrogen- and crop-related predictions, and stress the need to better calibrate the model in a global sense. This study demonstrates the advantages of the GSA on a

  3. Ultra-Weak Fiber Bragg Grating Sensing Network Coated with Sensitive Material for Multi-Parameter Measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Wei; Yang, Minghong; Hu, Chenyuan; Dai, Jixiang; Zhong, Xuexiang; Huang, Shuai; Wang, Gaopeng

    2017-06-26

    A multi-parameter measurement system based on ultra-weak fiber Bragg grating (UFBG) array with sensitive material was proposed and experimentally demonstrated. The UFBG array interrogation principle is time division multiplex technology with two semiconductor optical amplifiers as timing units. Experimental results showed that the performance of the proposed UFBG system is almost equal to that of traditional FBG, while the UFBG array system has obvious superiority with potential multiplexing ability for multi-point and multi-parameter measurement. The system experimented on a 144 UFBG array with the reflectivity of UFBG ~0.04% for the four target parameters: hydrogen, humidity, temperature and salinity. Moreover, a uniform solution was customized to divide the cross-sensitivity between temperature and other target parameters. It is expected that this scheme will be capable of handling thousands of multi-parameter sensors in a single fiber.

  4. Ultra-Weak Fiber Bragg Grating Sensing Network Coated with Sensitive Material for Multi-Parameter Measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Bai

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available A multi-parameter measurement system based on ultra-weak fiber Bragg grating (UFBG array with sensitive material was proposed and experimentally demonstrated. The UFBG array interrogation principle is time division multiplex technology with two semiconductor optical amplifiers as timing units. Experimental results showed that the performance of the proposed UFBG system is almost equal to that of traditional FBG, while the UFBG array system has obvious superiority with potential multiplexing ability for multi-point and multi-parameter measurement. The system experimented on a 144 UFBG array with the reflectivity of UFBG ~0.04% for the four target parameters: hydrogen, humidity, temperature and salinity. Moreover, a uniform solution was customized to divide the cross-sensitivity between temperature and other target parameters. It is expected that this scheme will be capable of handling thousands of multi-parameter sensors in a single fiber.

  5. Global sensitivity analysis of computer models with functional inputs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iooss, Bertrand; Ribatet, Mathieu

    2009-01-01

    Global sensitivity analysis is used to quantify the influence of uncertain model inputs on the response variability of a numerical model