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Sample records for model parameter posterior

  1. Morphological parameters associated with ruptured posterior communicating aneurysms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Allen; Lin, Ning; Charoenvimolphan, Nareerat; Stanley, Mary; Frerichs, Kai U; Day, Arthur L; Du, Rose

    2014-01-01

    The rupture risk of unruptured intracranial aneurysms is known to be dependent on the size of the aneurysm. However, the association of morphological characteristics with ruptured aneurysms has not been established in a systematic and location specific manner for the most common aneurysm locations. We evaluated posterior communicating artery (PCoA) aneurysms for morphological parameters associated with aneurysm rupture in that location. CT angiograms were evaluated to generate 3-D models of the aneurysms and surrounding vasculature. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate morphological parameters including aneurysm volume, aspect ratio, size ratio, distance to ICA bifurcation, aneurysm angle, vessel angles, flow angles, and vessel-to-vessel angles. From 2005-2012, 148 PCoA aneurysms were treated in a single institution. Preoperative CTAs from 63 patients (40 ruptured, 23 unruptured) were available and analyzed. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that smaller volume (p = 0.011), larger aneurysm neck diameter (0.048), and shorter ICA bifurcation to aneurysm distance (p = 0.005) were the most strongly associated with aneurysm rupture after adjusting for all other clinical and morphological variables. Multivariate subgroup analysis for patients with visualized PCoA demonstrated that larger neck diameter (p = 0.018) and shorter ICA bifurcation to aneurysm distance (p = 0.011) were significantly associated with rupture. Intracerebral hemorrhage was associated with smaller volume, larger maximum height, and smaller aneurysm angle, in addition to lateral projection, male sex, and lack of hypertension. We found that shorter ICA bifurcation to aneurysm distance is significantly associated with PCoA aneurysm rupture. This is a new physically intuitive parameter that can be measured easily and therefore be readily applied in clinical practice to aid in the evaluation of patients with PCoA aneurysms.

  2. A model for predicting sulcus-to-sulcus diameter in posterior chamber phakic intraocular lens candidates: correlation between ocular biometric parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghoreishi, Mohammad; Abdi-Shahshahani, Mehdi; Peyman, Alireza; Pourazizi, Mohsen

    2018-02-21

    The aim of this study was to determine the correlation between ocular biometric parameters and sulcus-to-sulcus (STS) diameter. This was a cross-sectional study of preoperative ocular biometry data of patients who were candidates for phakic intraocular lens (IOL) surgery. Subjects underwent ocular biometry analysis, including refraction error evaluation using an autorefractor and Orbscan topography for white-to-white (WTW) corneal diameter and measurement. Pentacam was used to perform WTW corneal diameter and measurements of minimum and maximum keratometry (K). Measurements of STS and angle-to-angle (ATA) were obtained using a 50-MHz B-mode ultrasound device. Anterior optical coherence tomography was performed for anterior chamber depth measurement. Pearson's correlation test and stepwise linear regression analysis were used to find a model to predict STS. Fifty-eight eyes of 58 patients were enrolled. Mean age ± standard deviation of sample was 28.95 ± 6.04 years. The Pearson's correlation coefficient between STS with WTW, ATA, mean K was 0.383, 0.492, and - 0.353, respectively, which was statistically significant (all P correlation of STS with WTW and mean K and potential of direct and essay measurement of WTW and mean K, it seems that current IOL sizing protocols could be estimating with WTW and mean K.

  3. Possibly Ill-behaved Posteriors in Econometric Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.F. Hoogerheide (Lennart); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractHighly non-elliptical posterior distributions may occur in several econometric models, in particular, when the likelihood information is allowed to dominate and data information is weak. We explain the issue of highly non-elliptical posteriors in a model for the effect of education on

  4. Scalable posterior approximations for large-scale Bayesian inverse problems via likelihood-informed parameter and state reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Tiangang; Marzouk, Youssef; Willcox, Karen

    2016-06-01

    Two major bottlenecks to the solution of large-scale Bayesian inverse problems are the scaling of posterior sampling algorithms to high-dimensional parameter spaces and the computational cost of forward model evaluations. Yet incomplete or noisy data, the state variation and parameter dependence of the forward model, and correlations in the prior collectively provide useful structure that can be exploited for dimension reduction in this setting-both in the parameter space of the inverse problem and in the state space of the forward model. To this end, we show how to jointly construct low-dimensional subspaces of the parameter space and the state space in order to accelerate the Bayesian solution of the inverse problem. As a byproduct of state dimension reduction, we also show how to identify low-dimensional subspaces of the data in problems with high-dimensional observations. These subspaces enable approximation of the posterior as a product of two factors: (i) a projection of the posterior onto a low-dimensional parameter subspace, wherein the original likelihood is replaced by an approximation involving a reduced model; and (ii) the marginal prior distribution on the high-dimensional complement of the parameter subspace. We present and compare several strategies for constructing these subspaces using only a limited number of forward and adjoint model simulations. The resulting posterior approximations can rapidly be characterized using standard sampling techniques, e.g., Markov chain Monte Carlo. Two numerical examples demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of our approach: inversion of an integral equation in atmospheric remote sensing, where the data dimension is very high; and the inference of a heterogeneous transmissivity field in a groundwater system, which involves a partial differential equation forward model with high dimensional state and parameters.

  5. Lumped-parameter models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, M.

    2006-12-15

    A lumped-parameter model represents the frequency dependent soil-structure interaction of a massless foundation placed on or embedded into an unbounded soil domain. In this technical report the steps of establishing a lumped-parameter model are presented. Following sections are included in this report: Static and dynamic formulation, Simple lumped-parameter models and Advanced lumped-parameter models. (au)

  6. Morphological parameters for implantation of the screwless spring loop dynamic posterior spinous process stabilizing system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Geun Soo; Lee, Yeon Soo

    2015-07-01

    This study aimed to quantify morphological characteristics of the posterior lumbar spinous process, which may affect stable implantation of screwless wire spring loops. Virtual implantations of a screwless wire spring loop onto pairs of lumbar spinous processes were performed for computed tomography (CT)-derived three-dimensional vertebral models of 40 Korean subjects. Morphological parameters of lumbar vertebrae 1 through 5 (L1-L5) were measured with regard to bone-implant interference. In males, the transspinous process fixation lengths decreased from 57.8±3.0mm to 48.8±3.2mm as the lumbar joints descend from L1-L2 to L4-L5, with those in females about 4.1±0.4mm shorter (pprocess and the greatest (8.1±2.2mm) for the L4 upper spinous process; this was 1.0±10.3mm less than that for males at corresponding levels (p>0.05). The ratio of the spinous process clenched thickness to the transspinous fixation length increased from 0.133±0.016 to 0.196±0.076 for the upper spinous processes as the lumbar joints descend. The ratio of the spinous process clenched thickness to the transspinous fixation length varies, depending on gender and whether the clenched level is the upper or lower spinous process. These parameters related to the clenching fixation stability should be considered in development and implantations of the screwless wire spring loop. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  7. Parameter Estimation of Partial Differential Equation Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xun, Xiaolei; Cao, Jiguo; Mallick, Bani; Carroll, Raymond J; Maity, Arnab

    2013-01-01

    Partial differential equation (PDE) models are commonly used to model complex dynamic systems in applied sciences such as biology and finance. The forms of these PDE models are usually proposed by experts based on their prior knowledge and understanding of the dynamic system. Parameters in PDE models often have interesting scientific interpretations, but their values are often unknown, and need to be estimated from the measurements of the dynamic system in the present of measurement errors. Most PDEs used in practice have no analytic solutions, and can only be solved with numerical methods. Currently, methods for estimating PDE parameters require repeatedly solving PDEs numerically under thousands of candidate parameter values, and thus the computational load is high. In this article, we propose two methods to estimate parameters in PDE models: a parameter cascading method and a Bayesian approach. In both methods, the underlying dynamic process modeled with the PDE model is represented via basis function expansion. For the parameter cascading method, we develop two nested levels of optimization to estimate the PDE parameters. For the Bayesian method, we develop a joint model for data and the PDE, and develop a novel hierarchical model allowing us to employ Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to make posterior inference. Simulation studies show that the Bayesian method and parameter cascading method are comparable, and both outperform other available methods in terms of estimation accuracy. The two methods are demonstrated by estimating parameters in a PDE model from LIDAR data.

  8. Evaluation of the utility of cephalometric parameters in constructing complete denture. Part I: placement of posterior teeth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassi, F; Deregibus, A; Previgliano, V; Bracco, P; Preti, G

    2001-03-01

    Various types of parameters, including cephalometric ones, have been used in the construction of complete denture. This study aimed to evaluate the utility of cephalometric parameters for this purpose. The position of the posterior teeth in a group of 42 edentulous patients, successfully rehabilitated with complete denture according to clinical parameters, was evaluated by cephalometrics. The following were determined: vertical dimension of occlusion (VDO); orientation of the occlusal plane; and subdivision of the denture space. The cephalometric parameters do not correspond to the clinical positioning of the posterior teeth in successful rehabilitation with complete denture.

  9. Adaptive Annealed Importance Sampling for Multimodal Posterior Exploration and Model Selection with Application to Extrasolar Planet Detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Bin

    2014-07-01

    We describe an algorithm that can adaptively provide mixture summaries of multimodal posterior distributions. The parameter space of the involved posteriors ranges in size from a few dimensions to dozens of dimensions. This work was motivated by an astrophysical problem called extrasolar planet (exoplanet) detection, wherein the computation of stochastic integrals that are required for Bayesian model comparison is challenging. The difficulty comes from the highly nonlinear models that lead to multimodal posterior distributions. We resort to importance sampling (IS) to estimate the integrals, and thus translate the problem to be how to find a parametric approximation of the posterior. To capture the multimodal structure in the posterior, we initialize a mixture proposal distribution and then tailor its parameters elaborately to make it resemble the posterior to the greatest extent possible. We use the effective sample size (ESS) calculated based on the IS draws to measure the degree of approximation. The bigger the ESS is, the better the proposal resembles the posterior. A difficulty within this tailoring operation lies in the adjustment of the number of mixing components in the mixture proposal. Brute force methods just preset it as a large constant, which leads to an increase in the required computational resources. We provide an iterative delete/merge/add process, which works in tandem with an expectation-maximization step to tailor such a number online. The efficiency of our proposed method is tested via both simulation studies and real exoplanet data analysis.

  10. A Novel Rodent Model of Posterior Ischemic Optic Neuropathy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yan; Brown, Dale P.; Duan, Yuanli; Kong, Wei; Watson, Brant D.; Goldberg, Jeffrey L.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives To develop a reliable, reproducible rat model of posterior ischemic optic neuropathy (PION) and study the cellular responses in the optic nerve and retina. Methods Posterior ischemic optic neuropathy was induced in adult rats by photochemically induced ischemia. Retinal and optic nerve vasculature was examined by fluorescein isothiocyanate–dextran extravasation. Tissue sectioning and immunohistochemistry were used to investigate the pathologic changes. Retinal ganglion cell survival at different times after PION induction, with or without neurotrophic application, was quantified by fluorogold retrograde labeling. Results Optic nerve injury was confirmed after PION induction, including local vascular leakage, optic nerve edema, and cavernous degeneration. Immunostaining data revealed microglial activation and focal loss of astrocytes, with adjacent astrocytic hypertrophy. Up to 23%, 50%, and 70% retinal ganglion cell loss was observed at 1 week, 2 weeks, and 3 weeks, respectively, after injury compared with a sham control group. Experimental treatment by brain-derived neurotrophic factor and ciliary neurotrophic factor remarkably prevented retinal ganglion cell loss in PION rats. At 3 weeks after injury, more than 40% of retinal ganglion cells were saved by the application of neurotrophic factors. Conclusions Rat PION created by photochemically induced ischemia is a reproducible and reliable animal model for mimicking the key features of human PION. Clinical Relevance The correspondence between the features of this rat PION model to those of human PION makes it an ideal model to study the pathophysiologic course of the disease, most of which remains to be elucidated. Furthermore, it provides an optimal model for testing therapeutic approaches for optic neuropathies. PMID:23544206

  11. Finite Element Modeling of the Posterior Eye in Microgravity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feola, Andrew; Raykin, Julia; Mulugeta, Lealem; Gleason, Rudolph; Myers, Jerry G.; Nelson, Emily S.; Samuels, Brian; Ethier, C. Ross

    2015-01-01

    Microgravity experienced during spaceflight affects astronauts in various ways, including weakened muscles and loss of bone density. Recently, visual impairment and intracranial pressure (VIIP) syndrome has become a major concern for space missions lasting longer than 30 days. Astronauts suffering from VIIP syndrome have changes in ocular anatomical and visual impairment that persist after returning to earth. It is hypothesized that a cephalad fluid shift in microgravity may increase the intracranial pressure (ICP), which leads to an altered biomechanical environment of the posterior globe and optic nerve sheath (ONS).Currently, there is a lack of knowledge of how elevated ICP may lead to vision impairment and connective tissue changes in VIIP. Our goal was to develop a finite element model to simulate the acute effects of elevated ICP on the posterior eye and optic nerve sheath. We used a finite element (FE) analysis approach to understand the response of the lamina cribrosa and optic nerve to the elevations in ICP thought to occur in microgravity and to identify which tissue components have the greatest impact on strain experienced by optic nerve head tissues.

  12. Parameter Estimation of Partial Differential Equation Models

    KAUST Repository

    Xun, Xiaolei

    2013-09-01

    Partial differential equation (PDE) models are commonly used to model complex dynamic systems in applied sciences such as biology and finance. The forms of these PDE models are usually proposed by experts based on their prior knowledge and understanding of the dynamic system. Parameters in PDE models often have interesting scientific interpretations, but their values are often unknown and need to be estimated from the measurements of the dynamic system in the presence of measurement errors. Most PDEs used in practice have no analytic solutions, and can only be solved with numerical methods. Currently, methods for estimating PDE parameters require repeatedly solving PDEs numerically under thousands of candidate parameter values, and thus the computational load is high. In this article, we propose two methods to estimate parameters in PDE models: a parameter cascading method and a Bayesian approach. In both methods, the underlying dynamic process modeled with the PDE model is represented via basis function expansion. For the parameter cascading method, we develop two nested levels of optimization to estimate the PDE parameters. For the Bayesian method, we develop a joint model for data and the PDE and develop a novel hierarchical model allowing us to employ Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to make posterior inference. Simulation studies show that the Bayesian method and parameter cascading method are comparable, and both outperform other available methods in terms of estimation accuracy. The two methods are demonstrated by estimating parameters in a PDE model from long-range infrared light detection and ranging data. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. © 2013 American Statistical Association.

  13. On the shape of posterior densities and credible sets in instrumental variable regression models with reduced rank: an application of flexible sampling methods using neural networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogerheide, L.F.; Kaashoek, J.F.; van Dijk, H.K.

    2007-01-01

    Likelihoods and posteriors of instrumental variable (IV) regression models with strong endogeneity and/or weak instruments may exhibit rather non-elliptical contours in the parameter space. This may seriously affect inference based on Bayesian credible sets. When approximating posterior

  14. Can the human lumbar posterior columns be stimulated by transcutaneous spinal cord stimulation? A modeling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danner, Simon M; Hofstoetter, Ursula S; Ladenbauer, Josef; Rattay, Frank; Minassian, Karen

    2011-03-01

    Stimulation of different spinal cord segments in humans is a widely developed clinical practice for modification of pain, altered sensation, and movement. The human lumbar cord has become a target for modification of motor control by epidural and, more recently, by transcutaneous spinal cord stimulation. Posterior columns of the lumbar spinal cord represent a vertical system of axons and when activated can add other inputs to the motor control of the spinal cord than stimulated posterior roots. We used a detailed three-dimensional volume conductor model of the torso and the McIntyre-Richard-Grill axon model to calculate the thresholds of axons within the posterior columns in response to transcutaneous lumbar spinal cord stimulation. Superficially located large-diameter posterior column fibers with multiple collaterals have a threshold of 45.4 V, three times higher than posterior root fibers (14.1 V). With the stimulation strength needed to activate posterior column axons, posterior root fibers of large and small diameters as well as anterior root fibers are coactivated. The reported results inform on these threshold differences, when stimulation is applied to the posterior structures of the lumbar cord at intensities above the threshold of large-diameter posterior root fibers. © 2011, Copyright the Authors. Artificial Organs © 2011, International Center for Artificial Organs and Transplantation and Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. Oracle posterior rates in the White Noise Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Babenko, A.

    2010-01-01

    All the results about posterior rates obtained until now are related to the optimal (minimax) rates for the estimation problem over the corresponding nonparametric smoothness classes, i.e. of a global nature. In the meantime, a new local approach to optimality has been developed within the

  16. Hip morphology predicts posterior hip impingement in a cadaveric model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, William Z; Fowers, Cody A; Weinberg, Douglas S; Millis, Michael B; Tu, Leigh-Anne; Liu, Raymond W

    2018-05-01

    Posterior hip impingement is a recently-identified cause of hip pain. The purpose of this study is to characterise posterior femoroacetabular and ischiofemoral impingement and identify its predisposing morphologic traits. Two hundred and six cadaveric hips were randomly selected and taken through controlled motion in two pure axes associated with posterior hip impingement: external rotation (through the mechanical axis) and adduction (coronal plane). The range of motion and location of impingement was noted for each specimen. Morphologic traits including femoral/acetabular version, and true neck-shaft angle (TNSA) were also measured. External rotation impingement occurred between the femoral neck and acetabulum in 83.0% of hips, and between the lesser trochanter and ischial tuberosity in 17.0%. Adduction impingement occurred between the lesser trochanter and ischial tuberosity in 78.6% of hips, and between the femoral neck and acetabulum in 21.4%. Multiple regression revealed that increased femoral/acetabular version predicted earlier external rotation and adduction impingement. Unstandardised betas ranging from -0.39 to -0.64 reflect that each degree of increased femoral/acetabular version individually accounts for a loss of external rotation or adduction of approximately half a degree before impingement ( p < 0.001 for each). Increased TNSA was associated with earlier adduction impingement only (unstandardised beta -0.35, p = 0.005). Relative femoral/acetabular anteversion was associated with earlier posterior hip impingement. Coxa valga was associated with earlier adduction impingement, but protective against external rotation impingement. These findings highlight the importance of monitoring correction during femoral/acetabular osteotomies, as overcorrection of retroversion may predispose to earlier posterior impingement.

  17. Photovoltaic module parameters acquisition model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cibira, Gabriel, E-mail: cibira@lm.uniza.sk; Koščová, Marcela, E-mail: mkoscova@lm.uniza.sk

    2014-09-01

    Highlights: • Photovoltaic five-parameter model is proposed using Matlab{sup ®} and Simulink. • The model acquisits input sparse data matrix from stigmatic measurement. • Computer simulations lead to continuous I–V and P–V characteristics. • Extrapolated I–V and P–V characteristics are in hand. • The model allows us to predict photovoltaics exploitation in different conditions. - Abstract: This paper presents basic procedures for photovoltaic (PV) module parameters acquisition using MATLAB and Simulink modelling. In first step, MATLAB and Simulink theoretical model are set to calculate I–V and P–V characteristics for PV module based on equivalent electrical circuit. Then, limited I–V data string is obtained from examined PV module using standard measurement equipment at standard irradiation and temperature conditions and stated into MATLAB data matrix as a reference model. Next, the theoretical model is optimized to keep-up with the reference model and to learn its basic parameters relations, over sparse data matrix. Finally, PV module parameters are deliverable for acquisition at different realistic irradiation, temperature conditions as well as series resistance. Besides of output power characteristics and efficiency calculation for PV module or system, proposed model validates computing statistical deviation compared to reference model.

  18. Photovoltaic module parameters acquisition model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cibira, Gabriel; Koščová, Marcela

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Photovoltaic five-parameter model is proposed using Matlab ® and Simulink. • The model acquisits input sparse data matrix from stigmatic measurement. • Computer simulations lead to continuous I–V and P–V characteristics. • Extrapolated I–V and P–V characteristics are in hand. • The model allows us to predict photovoltaics exploitation in different conditions. - Abstract: This paper presents basic procedures for photovoltaic (PV) module parameters acquisition using MATLAB and Simulink modelling. In first step, MATLAB and Simulink theoretical model are set to calculate I–V and P–V characteristics for PV module based on equivalent electrical circuit. Then, limited I–V data string is obtained from examined PV module using standard measurement equipment at standard irradiation and temperature conditions and stated into MATLAB data matrix as a reference model. Next, the theoretical model is optimized to keep-up with the reference model and to learn its basic parameters relations, over sparse data matrix. Finally, PV module parameters are deliverable for acquisition at different realistic irradiation, temperature conditions as well as series resistance. Besides of output power characteristics and efficiency calculation for PV module or system, proposed model validates computing statistical deviation compared to reference model

  19. Parameter estimation of multivariate multiple regression model using bayesian with non-informative Jeffreys’ prior distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saputro, D. R. S.; Amalia, F.; Widyaningsih, P.; Affan, R. C.

    2018-05-01

    Bayesian method is a method that can be used to estimate the parameters of multivariate multiple regression model. Bayesian method has two distributions, there are prior and posterior distributions. Posterior distribution is influenced by the selection of prior distribution. Jeffreys’ prior distribution is a kind of Non-informative prior distribution. This prior is used when the information about parameter not available. Non-informative Jeffreys’ prior distribution is combined with the sample information resulting the posterior distribution. Posterior distribution is used to estimate the parameter. The purposes of this research is to estimate the parameters of multivariate regression model using Bayesian method with Non-informative Jeffreys’ prior distribution. Based on the results and discussion, parameter estimation of β and Σ which were obtained from expected value of random variable of marginal posterior distribution function. The marginal posterior distributions for β and Σ are multivariate normal and inverse Wishart. However, in calculation of the expected value involving integral of a function which difficult to determine the value. Therefore, approach is needed by generating of random samples according to the posterior distribution characteristics of each parameter using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Gibbs sampling algorithm.

  20. Inverse modeling of hydrologic parameters using surface flux and runoff observations in the Community Land Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Y.; Hou, Z.; Huang, M.; Tian, F.; Leung, L. Ruby

    2013-12-01

    This study demonstrates the possibility of inverting hydrologic parameters using surface flux and runoff observations in version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4). Previous studies showed that surface flux and runoff calculations are sensitive to major hydrologic parameters in CLM4 over different watersheds, and illustrated the necessity and possibility of parameter calibration. Both deterministic least-square fitting and stochastic Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-Bayesian inversion approaches are evaluated by applying them to CLM4 at selected sites with different climate and soil conditions. The unknowns to be estimated include surface and subsurface runoff generation parameters and vadose zone soil water parameters. We find that using model parameters calibrated by the sampling-based stochastic inversion approaches provides significant improvements in the model simulations compared to using default CLM4 parameter values, and that as more information comes in, the predictive intervals (ranges of posterior distributions) of the calibrated parameters become narrower. In general, parameters that are identified to be significant through sensitivity analyses and statistical tests are better calibrated than those with weak or nonlinear impacts on flux or runoff observations. Temporal resolution of observations has larger impacts on the results of inverse modeling using heat flux data than runoff data. Soil and vegetation cover have important impacts on parameter sensitivities, leading to different patterns of posterior distributions of parameters at different sites. Overall, the MCMC-Bayesian inversion approach effectively and reliably improves the simulation of CLM under different climates and environmental conditions. Bayesian model averaging of the posterior estimates with different reference acceptance probabilities can smooth the posterior distribution and provide more reliable parameter estimates, but at the expense of wider uncertainty bounds.

  1. Bayesian estimation of parameters in a regional hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Engeland

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the applicability of the distributed, process-oriented Ecomag model for prediction of daily streamflow in ungauged basins. The Ecomag model is applied as a regional model to nine catchments in the NOPEX area, using Bayesian statistics to estimate the posterior distribution of the model parameters conditioned on the observed streamflow. The distribution is calculated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC analysis. The Bayesian method requires formulation of a likelihood function for the parameters and three alternative formulations are used. The first is a subjectively chosen objective function that describes the goodness of fit between the simulated and observed streamflow, as defined in the GLUE framework. The second and third formulations are more statistically correct likelihood models that describe the simulation errors. The full statistical likelihood model describes the simulation errors as an AR(1 process, whereas the simple model excludes the auto-regressive part. The statistical parameters depend on the catchments and the hydrological processes and the statistical and the hydrological parameters are estimated simultaneously. The results show that the simple likelihood model gives the most robust parameter estimates. The simulation error may be explained to a large extent by the catchment characteristics and climatic conditions, so it is possible to transfer knowledge about them to ungauged catchments. The statistical models for the simulation errors indicate that structural errors in the model are more important than parameter uncertainties. Keywords: regional hydrological model, model uncertainty, Bayesian analysis, Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis

  2. On the shape of posterior densities and credible sets in instrumental variable regression models with reduced rank: an application of flexible sampling methods using neural networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.F. Hoogerheide (Lennart); J.F. Kaashoek (Johan); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractLikelihoods and posteriors of instrumental variable regression models with strong endogeneity and/or weak instruments may exhibit rather non-elliptical contours in the parameter space. This may seriously affect inference based on Bayesian credible sets. When approximating such contours

  3. The mechanical consequence of failure of ossified union in attempted posterior spinal fusion. A canine model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stonecipher, T K; Vanderby, R; Sciammarella, C A; Lei, S S; Fisk, J R

    1983-01-01

    The mechanical behavior of pseudarthrosis in posterior spinal fusion was investigated. A canine model was developed in which an incompletely ossified posterior fusion mass was consistently produced. The spines were excised, and the motion segments were mechanically tested using a specially developed loading apparatus. Tests were performed to evaluate stiffness of the segments to loading with compression, torsion, and anterioposterior and lateral bending shear stiffness. Changes in other modes of loading were less consistent. The motion characteristics of the pseudarthrosis could not be predicted from the extent of the osseous defect noted on roentgenograms. These findings correlate clinically with the progression of curvature seen with pseudarthrosis in scoliosis surgery and the unpredictable results of pseudarthrosis in posterior fusion performed in treatment of degenerative disc disease.

  4. Oracle convergence rate of posterior under projection prior and Bayesian model selection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Babenko, A.; Belitser, E.N.

    2010-01-01

    We apply the Bayes approach to the problem of projection estimation of a signal observed in the Gaussian white noise model and we study the rate at which the posterior distribution concentrates about the true signal from the space ℓ2 as the information in observations tends to infinity. A benchmark

  5. Oracle convergence rate of posterior under projection prior and Bayesian model selection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Babenko, A.; Belitser, E.

    2010-01-01

    We apply the Bayes approach to the problem of projection estimation of a signal observed in the Gaussian white noise model and we study the rate at which the posterior distribution concentrates about the true signal from the space l2 as the information in observations tends to infinity. A benchmark

  6. A 3D finite element model to investigate prosthetic interface stresses of different posterior tibial slope.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Yi; Li, Xiaomiao; Fu, Xiaodong; Wang, Weili

    2015-11-01

    Posterior tibial slope that is created during proximal tibial resection in total knee arthroplasty has emerged as an important factor in the mechanics of the knee joint and the surgical outcome. But the ideal degree of posterior tibial slope for recovery of the knee joint function and preventions of complications remains controversial and should vary in different racial groups. The objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of posterior tibial slope on contact stresses in the tibial polyethylene component of total knee prostheses. Three-dimensional finite element analysis was used to calculate contact stresses in tibial polyethylene component of total knee prostheses subjected to a compressive load. The 3D finite element model of total knee prosthesis was constructed from the images produced by 3D scanning technology. Stresses in tibial polyethylene component were calculated with four different posterior tibial slopes (0°, 3°, 6° and 9°). The 3D finite element model of total knee prosthesis we presented was well validated. We found that the stress distribution in the polythene as evaluated by the distributions of the von Mises stress, the maximum principle stress, the minimum principle stress and the Cpress were more uniform with 3° and 6° posterior tibial slopes than with 0° and 9° posterior tibial slopes. Moreover, the peaks of the above stresses and trends of changes with increasing degree of knee flexion were more ideal with 3° and 6° posterior slopes. The results suggested that the tibial component inclination might be favourable to 7°-10° so far as the stress distribution is concerned. The range of the tibial component inclination also can decrease the wear of polyethylene. Chinese posterior tibial slope is bigger than in the West, and the current domestic use of prostheses is imported from the West, so their demands to tilt back bone cutting can lead to shorten the service life of prostheses; this experiment result is of important

  7. A Bayesian posterior predictive framework for weighting ensemble regional climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Fan

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available We present a novel Bayesian statistical approach to computing model weights in climate change projection ensembles in order to create probabilistic projections. The weight of each climate model is obtained by weighting the current day observed data under the posterior distribution admitted under competing climate models. We use a linear model to describe the model output and observations. The approach accounts for uncertainty in model bias, trend and internal variability, including error in the observations used. Our framework is general, requires very little problem-specific input, and works well with default priors. We carry out cross-validation checks that confirm that the method produces the correct coverage.

  8. Uncertainty in dual permeability model parameters for structured soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arora, B.; Mohanty, B. P.; McGuire, J. T.

    2012-01-01

    Successful application of dual permeability models (DPM) to predict contaminant transport is contingent upon measured or inversely estimated soil hydraulic and solute transport parameters. The difficulty in unique identification of parameters for the additional macropore- and matrix-macropore interface regions, and knowledge about requisite experimental data for DPM has not been resolved to date. Therefore, this study quantifies uncertainty in dual permeability model parameters of experimental soil columns with different macropore distributions (single macropore, and low- and high-density multiple macropores). Uncertainty evaluation is conducted using adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (AMCMC) and conventional Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithms while assuming 10 out of 17 parameters to be uncertain or random. Results indicate that AMCMC resolves parameter correlations and exhibits fast convergence for all DPM parameters while MH displays large posterior correlations for various parameters. This study demonstrates that the choice of parameter sampling algorithms is paramount in obtaining unique DPM parameters when information on covariance structure is lacking, or else additional information on parameter correlations must be supplied to resolve the problem of equifinality of DPM parameters. This study also highlights the placement and significance of matrix-macropore interface in flow experiments of soil columns with different macropore densities. Histograms for certain soil hydraulic parameters display tri-modal characteristics implying that macropores are drained first followed by the interface region and then by pores of the matrix domain in drainage experiments. Results indicate that hydraulic properties and behavior of the matrix-macropore interface is not only a function of saturated hydraulic conductivity of the macroporematrix interface (Ksa) and macropore tortuosity (lf) but also of other parameters of the matrix and macropore domains.

  9. Femoral Component External Rotation Affects Knee Biomechanics: A Computational Model of Posterior-stabilized TKA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kia, Mohammad; Wright, Timothy M; Cross, Michael B; Mayman, David J; Pearle, Andrew D; Sculco, Peter K; Westrich, Geoffrey H; Imhauser, Carl W

    2018-01-01

    The correct amount of external rotation of the femoral component during TKA is controversial because the resulting changes in biomechanical knee function associated with varying degrees of femoral component rotation are not well understood. We addressed this question using a computational model, which allowed us to isolate the biomechanical impact of geometric factors including bony shapes, location of ligament insertions, and implant size across three different knees after posterior-stabilized (PS) TKA. Using a computational model of the tibiofemoral joint, we asked: (1) Does external rotation unload the medial collateral ligament (MCL) and what is the effect on lateral collateral ligament tension? (2) How does external rotation alter tibiofemoral contact loads and kinematics? (3) Does 3° external rotation relative to the posterior condylar axis align the component to the surgical transepicondylar axis (sTEA) and what anatomic factors of the femoral condyle explain variations in maximum MCL tension among knees? We incorporated a PS TKA into a previously developed computational knee model applied to three neutrally aligned, nonarthritic, male cadaveric knees. The computational knee model was previously shown to corroborate coupled motions and ligament loading patterns of the native knee through a range of flexion. Implant geometries were virtually installed using hip-to-ankle CT scans through measured resection and anterior referencing surgical techniques. Collateral ligament properties were standardized across each knee model by defining stiffness and slack lengths based on the healthy population. The femoral component was externally rotated from 0° to 9° relative to the posterior condylar axis in 3° increments. At each increment, the knee was flexed under 500 N compression from 0° to 90° simulating an intraoperative examination. The computational model predicted collateral ligament forces, compartmental contact forces, and tibiofemoral internal/external and

  10. Bayesian selection of misspecified models is overconfident and may cause spurious posterior probabilities for phylogenetic trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ziheng; Zhu, Tianqi

    2018-02-20

    The Bayesian method is noted to produce spuriously high posterior probabilities for phylogenetic trees in analysis of large datasets, but the precise reasons for this overconfidence are unknown. In general, the performance of Bayesian selection of misspecified models is poorly understood, even though this is of great scientific interest since models are never true in real data analysis. Here we characterize the asymptotic behavior of Bayesian model selection and show that when the competing models are equally wrong, Bayesian model selection exhibits surprising and polarized behaviors in large datasets, supporting one model with full force while rejecting the others. If one model is slightly less wrong than the other, the less wrong model will eventually win when the amount of data increases, but the method may become overconfident before it becomes reliable. We suggest that this extreme behavior may be a major factor for the spuriously high posterior probabilities for evolutionary trees. The philosophical implications of our results to the application of Bayesian model selection to evaluate opposing scientific hypotheses are yet to be explored, as are the behaviors of non-Bayesian methods in similar situations.

  11. Prior and posterior probabilistic models of uncertainties in a model for producing voice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cataldo, Edson; Sampaio, Rubens; Soize, Christian

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to use Bayesian statistics to update a probability density function related to the tension parameter, which is one of the main parameters responsible for the changing of the fundamental frequency of a voice signal, generated by a mechanical/mathematical model for producing voiced sounds. We follow a parametric approach for stochastic modeling, which requires the adoption of random variables to represent the uncertain parameters present in the cited model. For each random variable, a probability density function is constructed using the Maximum Entropy Principle and the Monte Carlo method is used to generate voice signals as the output of the model. Then, a probability density function of the voice fundamental frequency is constructed. The random variables are fit to experimental data so that the probability density function of the fundamental frequency obtained by the model can be as near as possible of a probability density function obtained from experimental data. New values are obtained experimentally for the fundamental frequency and they are used to update the probability density function of the tension parameter, via Bayes's Theorem.

  12. Quality assessment for radiological model parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Funtowicz, S.O.

    1989-01-01

    A prototype framework for representing uncertainties in radiological model parameters is introduced. This follows earlier development in this journal of a corresponding framework for representing uncertainties in radiological data. Refinements and extensions to the earlier framework are needed in order to take account of the additional contextual factors consequent on using data entries to quantify model parameters. The parameter coding can in turn feed in to methods for evaluating uncertainties in calculated model outputs. (author)

  13. Establishing statistical models of manufacturing parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Senevat, J.; Pape, J.L.; Deshayes, J.F.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports on the effect of pilgering and cold-work parameters on contractile strain ratio and mechanical properties that were investigated using a large population of Zircaloy tubes. Statistical models were established between: contractile strain ratio and tooling parameters, mechanical properties (tensile test, creep test) and cold-work parameters, and mechanical properties and stress-relieving temperature

  14. Robust estimation of hydrological model parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bárdossy

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available The estimation of hydrological model parameters is a challenging task. With increasing capacity of computational power several complex optimization algorithms have emerged, but none of the algorithms gives a unique and very best parameter vector. The parameters of fitted hydrological models depend upon the input data. The quality of input data cannot be assured as there may be measurement errors for both input and state variables. In this study a methodology has been developed to find a set of robust parameter vectors for a hydrological model. To see the effect of observational error on parameters, stochastically generated synthetic measurement errors were applied to observed discharge and temperature data. With this modified data, the model was calibrated and the effect of measurement errors on parameters was analysed. It was found that the measurement errors have a significant effect on the best performing parameter vector. The erroneous data led to very different optimal parameter vectors. To overcome this problem and to find a set of robust parameter vectors, a geometrical approach based on Tukey's half space depth was used. The depth of the set of N randomly generated parameters was calculated with respect to the set with the best model performance (Nash-Sutclife efficiency was used for this study for each parameter vector. Based on the depth of parameter vectors, one can find a set of robust parameter vectors. The results show that the parameters chosen according to the above criteria have low sensitivity and perform well when transfered to a different time period. The method is demonstrated on the upper Neckar catchment in Germany. The conceptual HBV model was used for this study.

  15. Model parameter updating using Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Treml, C.A.; Ross, Timothy J.

    2004-01-01

    This paper outlines a model parameter updating technique for a new method of model validation using a modified model reference adaptive control (MRAC) framework with Bayesian Networks (BNs). The model parameter updating within this method is generic in the sense that the model/simulation to be validated is treated as a black box. It must have updateable parameters to which its outputs are sensitive, and those outputs must have metrics that can be compared to that of the model reference, i.e., experimental data. Furthermore, no assumptions are made about the statistics of the model parameter uncertainty, only upper and lower bounds need to be specified. This method is designed for situations where a model is not intended to predict a complete point-by-point time domain description of the item/system behavior; rather, there are specific points, features, or events of interest that need to be predicted. These specific points are compared to the model reference derived from actual experimental data. The logic for updating the model parameters to match the model reference is formed via a BN. The nodes of this BN consist of updateable model input parameters and the specific output values or features of interest. Each time the model is executed, the input/output pairs are used to adapt the conditional probabilities of the BN. Each iteration further refines the inferred model parameters to produce the desired model output. After parameter updating is complete and model inputs are inferred, reliabilities for the model output are supplied. Finally, this method is applied to a simulation of a resonance control cooling system for a prototype coupled cavity linac. The results are compared to experimental data.

  16. On parameter estimation in deformable models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fisker, Rune; Carstensen, Jens Michael

    1998-01-01

    Deformable templates have been intensively studied in image analysis through the last decade, but despite its significance the estimation of model parameters has received little attention. We present a method for supervised and unsupervised model parameter estimation using a general Bayesian form...

  17. Parameter identification in multinomial processing tree models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schmittmann, V.D.; Dolan, C.V.; Raijmakers, M.E.J.; Batchelder, W.H.

    2010-01-01

    Multinomial processing tree models form a popular class of statistical models for categorical data that have applications in various areas of psychological research. As in all statistical models, establishing which parameters are identified is necessary for model inference and selection on the basis

  18. Boosting Bayesian parameter inference of nonlinear stochastic differential equation models by Hamiltonian scale separation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albert, Carlo; Ulzega, Simone; Stoop, Ruedi

    2016-04-01

    Parameter inference is a fundamental problem in data-driven modeling. Given observed data that is believed to be a realization of some parameterized model, the aim is to find parameter values that are able to explain the observed data. In many situations, the dominant sources of uncertainty must be included into the model for making reliable predictions. This naturally leads to stochastic models. Stochastic models render parameter inference much harder, as the aim then is to find a distribution of likely parameter values. In Bayesian statistics, which is a consistent framework for data-driven learning, this so-called posterior distribution can be used to make probabilistic predictions. We propose a novel, exact, and very efficient approach for generating posterior parameter distributions for stochastic differential equation models calibrated to measured time series. The algorithm is inspired by reinterpreting the posterior distribution as a statistical mechanics partition function of an object akin to a polymer, where the measurements are mapped on heavier beads compared to those of the simulated data. To arrive at distribution samples, we employ a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo approach combined with a multiple time-scale integration. A separation of time scales naturally arises if either the number of measurement points or the number of simulation points becomes large. Furthermore, at least for one-dimensional problems, we can decouple the harmonic modes between measurement points and solve the fastest part of their dynamics analytically. Our approach is applicable to a wide range of inference problems and is highly parallelizable.

  19. PARAMETER ESTIMATION IN BREAD BAKING MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hadiyanto Hadiyanto

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Bread product quality is highly dependent to the baking process. A model for the development of product quality, which was obtained by using quantitative and qualitative relationships, was calibrated by experiments at a fixed baking temperature of 200°C alone and in combination with 100 W microwave powers. The model parameters were estimated in a stepwise procedure i.e. first, heat and mass transfer related parameters, then the parameters related to product transformations and finally product quality parameters. There was a fair agreement between the calibrated model results and the experimental data. The results showed that the applied simple qualitative relationships for quality performed above expectation. Furthermore, it was confirmed that the microwave input is most meaningful for the internal product properties and not for the surface properties as crispness and color. The model with adjusted parameters was applied in a quality driven food process design procedure to derive a dynamic operation pattern, which was subsequently tested experimentally to calibrate the model. Despite the limited calibration with fixed operation settings, the model predicted well on the behavior under dynamic convective operation and on combined convective and microwave operation. It was expected that the suitability between model and baking system could be improved further by performing calibration experiments at higher temperature and various microwave power levels.  Abstrak  PERKIRAAN PARAMETER DALAM MODEL UNTUK PROSES BAKING ROTI. Kualitas produk roti sangat tergantung pada proses baking yang digunakan. Suatu model yang telah dikembangkan dengan metode kualitatif dan kuantitaif telah dikalibrasi dengan percobaan pada temperatur 200oC dan dengan kombinasi dengan mikrowave pada 100 Watt. Parameter-parameter model diestimasi dengan prosedur bertahap yaitu pertama, parameter pada model perpindahan masa dan panas, parameter pada model transformasi, dan

  20. Learning maximum entropy models from finite-size data sets: A fast data-driven algorithm allows sampling from the posterior distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrari, Ulisse

    2016-08-01

    Maximum entropy models provide the least constrained probability distributions that reproduce statistical properties of experimental datasets. In this work we characterize the learning dynamics that maximizes the log-likelihood in the case of large but finite datasets. We first show how the steepest descent dynamics is not optimal as it is slowed down by the inhomogeneous curvature of the model parameters' space. We then provide a way for rectifying this space which relies only on dataset properties and does not require large computational efforts. We conclude by solving the long-time limit of the parameters' dynamics including the randomness generated by the systematic use of Gibbs sampling. In this stochastic framework, rather than converging to a fixed point, the dynamics reaches a stationary distribution, which for the rectified dynamics reproduces the posterior distribution of the parameters. We sum up all these insights in a "rectified" data-driven algorithm that is fast and by sampling from the parameters' posterior avoids both under- and overfitting along all the directions of the parameters' space. Through the learning of pairwise Ising models from the recording of a large population of retina neurons, we show how our algorithm outperforms the steepest descent method.

  1. Parameter identification in the logistic STAR model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ekner, Line Elvstrøm; Nejstgaard, Emil

    We propose a new and simple parametrization of the so-called speed of transition parameter of the logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) model. The new parametrization highlights that a consequence of the well-known identification problem of the speed of transition parameter is that th...

  2. Exploiting intrinsic fluctuations to identify model parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmer, Christoph; Sahle, Sven; Pahle, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    Parameterisation of kinetic models plays a central role in computational systems biology. Besides the lack of experimental data of high enough quality, some of the biggest challenges here are identification issues. Model parameters can be structurally non-identifiable because of functional relationships. Noise in measured data is usually considered to be a nuisance for parameter estimation. However, it turns out that intrinsic fluctuations in particle numbers can make parameters identifiable that were previously non-identifiable. The authors present a method to identify model parameters that are structurally non-identifiable in a deterministic framework. The method takes time course recordings of biochemical systems in steady state or transient state as input. Often a functional relationship between parameters presents itself by a one-dimensional manifold in parameter space containing parameter sets of optimal goodness. Although the system's behaviour cannot be distinguished on this manifold in a deterministic framework it might be distinguishable in a stochastic modelling framework. Their method exploits this by using an objective function that includes a measure for fluctuations in particle numbers. They show on three example models, immigration-death, gene expression and Epo-EpoReceptor interaction, that this resolves the non-identifiability even in the case of measurement noise with known amplitude. The method is applied to partially observed recordings of biochemical systems with measurement noise. It is simple to implement and it is usually very fast to compute. This optimisation can be realised in a classical or Bayesian fashion.

  3. Setting Parameters for Biological Models With ANIMO

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schivo, Stefano; Scholma, Jetse; Karperien, Hermanus Bernardus Johannes; Post, Janine Nicole; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Langerak, Romanus; André, Étienne; Frehse, Goran

    2014-01-01

    ANIMO (Analysis of Networks with Interactive MOdeling) is a software for modeling biological networks, such as e.g. signaling, metabolic or gene networks. An ANIMO model is essentially the sum of a network topology and a number of interaction parameters. The topology describes the interactions

  4. Parameters and error of a theoretical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeller, P.; Nix, J.R.; Swiatecki, W.

    1986-09-01

    We propose a definition for the error of a theoretical model of the type whose parameters are determined from adjustment to experimental data. By applying a standard statistical method, the maximum-likelihoodlmethod, we derive expressions for both the parameters of the theoretical model and its error. We investigate the derived equations by solving them for simulated experimental and theoretical quantities generated by use of random number generators. 2 refs., 4 tabs

  5. Parameter Estimation of Nonlinear Models in Forestry.

    OpenAIRE

    Fekedulegn, Desta; Mac Siúrtáin, Máirtín Pádraig; Colbert, Jim J.

    1999-01-01

    Partial derivatives of the negative exponential, monomolecular, Mitcherlich, Gompertz, logistic, Chapman-Richards, von Bertalanffy, Weibull and the Richard’s nonlinear growth models are presented. The application of these partial derivatives in estimating the model parameters is illustrated. The parameters are estimated using the Marquardt iterative method of nonlinear regression relating top height to age of Norway spruce (Picea abies L.) from the Bowmont Norway Spruce Thinnin...

  6. Parameter estimation of component reliability models in PSA model of Krsko NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jordan Cizelj, R.; Vrbanic, I.

    2001-01-01

    In the paper, the uncertainty analysis of component reliability models for independent failures is shown. The present approach for parameter estimation of component reliability models in NPP Krsko is presented. Mathematical approaches for different types of uncertainty analyses are introduced and used in accordance with some predisposed requirements. Results of the uncertainty analyses are shown in an example for time-related components. As the most appropriate uncertainty analysis proved the Bayesian estimation with the numerical estimation of a posterior, which can be approximated with some appropriate probability distribution, in this paper with lognormal distribution.(author)

  7. Wind Farm Decentralized Dynamic Modeling With Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soltani, Mohsen; Shakeri, Sayyed Mojtaba; Grunnet, Jacob Deleuran

    2010-01-01

    Development of dynamic wind flow models for wind farms is part of the research in European research FP7 project AEOLUS. The objective of this report is to provide decentralized dynamic wind flow models with parameters. The report presents a structure for decentralized flow models with inputs from...... local models. The results of this report are especially useful, but not limited, to design a decentralized wind farm controller, since in centralized controller design one can also use the model and update it in a central computing node.......Development of dynamic wind flow models for wind farms is part of the research in European research FP7 project AEOLUS. The objective of this report is to provide decentralized dynamic wind flow models with parameters. The report presents a structure for decentralized flow models with inputs from...

  8. Parameter Estimation for Thurstone Choice Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vojnovic, Milan [London School of Economics (United Kingdom); Yun, Seyoung [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-04-24

    We consider the estimation accuracy of individual strength parameters of a Thurstone choice model when each input observation consists of a choice of one item from a set of two or more items (so called top-1 lists). This model accommodates the well-known choice models such as the Luce choice model for comparison sets of two or more items and the Bradley-Terry model for pair comparisons. We provide a tight characterization of the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator. We also provide similar characterizations for parameter estimators defined by a rank-breaking method, which amounts to deducing one or more pair comparisons from a comparison of two or more items, assuming independence of these pair comparisons, and maximizing a likelihood function derived under these assumptions. We also consider a related binary classification problem where each individual parameter takes value from a set of two possible values and the goal is to correctly classify all items within a prescribed classification error. The results of this paper shed light on how the parameter estimation accuracy depends on given Thurstone choice model and the structure of comparison sets. In particular, we found that for unbiased input comparison sets of a given cardinality, when in expectation each comparison set of given cardinality occurs the same number of times, for a broad class of Thurstone choice models, the mean squared error decreases with the cardinality of comparison sets, but only marginally according to a diminishing returns relation. On the other hand, we found that there exist Thurstone choice models for which the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator can decrease much faster with the cardinality of comparison sets. We report empirical evaluation of some claims and key parameters revealed by theory using both synthetic and real-world input data from some popular sport competitions and online labor platforms.

  9. Systematic parameter inference in stochastic mesoscopic modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lei, Huan; Yang, Xiu [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99352 (United States); Li, Zhen [Division of Applied Mathematics, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912 (United States); Karniadakis, George Em, E-mail: george_karniadakis@brown.edu [Division of Applied Mathematics, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912 (United States)

    2017-02-01

    We propose a method to efficiently determine the optimal coarse-grained force field in mesoscopic stochastic simulations of Newtonian fluid and polymer melt systems modeled by dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) and energy conserving dissipative particle dynamics (eDPD). The response surfaces of various target properties (viscosity, diffusivity, pressure, etc.) with respect to model parameters are constructed based on the generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansion using simulation results on sampling points (e.g., individual parameter sets). To alleviate the computational cost to evaluate the target properties, we employ the compressive sensing method to compute the coefficients of the dominant gPC terms given the prior knowledge that the coefficients are “sparse”. The proposed method shows comparable accuracy with the standard probabilistic collocation method (PCM) while it imposes a much weaker restriction on the number of the simulation samples especially for systems with high dimensional parametric space. Fully access to the response surfaces within the confidence range enables us to infer the optimal force parameters given the desirable values of target properties at the macroscopic scale. Moreover, it enables us to investigate the intrinsic relationship between the model parameters, identify possible degeneracies in the parameter space, and optimize the model by eliminating model redundancies. The proposed method provides an efficient alternative approach for constructing mesoscopic models by inferring model parameters to recover target properties of the physics systems (e.g., from experimental measurements), where those force field parameters and formulation cannot be derived from the microscopic level in a straight forward way.

  10. Application of lumped-parameter models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, Morten

    This technical report concerns the lumped-parameter models for a suction caisson with a ratio between skirt length and foundation diameter equal to 1/2, embedded into an viscoelastic soil. The models are presented for three different values of the shear modulus of the subsoil (section 1.1). Subse...

  11. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, C.W.

    1984-01-01

    This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base

  12. WINKLER'S SINGLE-PARAMETER SUBGRADE MODEL FROM ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Preferred Customer

    Page 1 ... corresponding single-parameter Winkler model presented in this work. Keywords: Heterogeneous subgrade, Reissner's simplified continuum, Shear interaction, Simplified continuum, Winkler ... model in practical applications and its long time familiarity among practical engineers, its usage has endured to this date ...

  13. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, C W [ed.

    1984-01-01

    This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base. (ACR)

  14. Consistent Stochastic Modelling of Meteocean Design Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Sterndorff, M. J.

    2000-01-01

    Consistent stochastic models of metocean design parameters and their directional dependencies are essential for reliability assessment of offshore structures. In this paper a stochastic model for the annual maximum values of the significant wave height, and the associated wind velocity, current...

  15. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, C.W.

    1983-01-01

    This article reviews the forthcoming book Models and Parameters for Environmental Radiological Assessments, which presents a unified compilation of models and parameters for assessing the impact on man of radioactive discharges, both routine and accidental, into the environment. Models presented in this book include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Summaries are presented for each of the transport and dosimetry areas previously for each of the transport and dosimetry areas previously mentioned, and details are available in the literature cited. A chapter of example problems illustrates many of the methodologies presented throughout the text. Models and parameters presented are based on the results of extensive literature reviews and evaluations performed primarily by the staff of the Health and Safety Research Division of Oak Ridge National Laboratory

  16. Inference for multivariate regression model based on multiply imputed synthetic data generated via posterior predictive sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moura, Ricardo; Sinha, Bimal; Coelho, Carlos A.

    2017-06-01

    The recent popularity of the use of synthetic data as a Statistical Disclosure Control technique has enabled the development of several methods of generating and analyzing such data, but almost always relying in asymptotic distributions and in consequence being not adequate for small sample datasets. Thus, a likelihood-based exact inference procedure is derived for the matrix of regression coefficients of the multivariate regression model, for multiply imputed synthetic data generated via Posterior Predictive Sampling. Since it is based in exact distributions this procedure may even be used in small sample datasets. Simulation studies compare the results obtained from the proposed exact inferential procedure with the results obtained from an adaptation of Reiters combination rule to multiply imputed synthetic datasets and an application to the 2000 Current Population Survey is discussed.

  17. The mobilisation model and parameter sensitivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blok, B.M.

    1993-12-01

    In the PRObabillistic Safety Assessment (PROSA) of radioactive waste in a salt repository one of the nuclide release scenario's is the subrosion scenario. A new subrosion model SUBRECN has been developed. In this model the combined effect of a depth-dependent subrosion, glass dissolution, and salt rise has been taken into account. The subrosion model SUBRECN and the implementation of this model in the German computer program EMOS4 is presented. A new computer program PANTER is derived from EMOS4. PANTER models releases of radionuclides via subrosion from a disposal site in a salt pillar into the biosphere. For uncertainty and sensitivity analyses the new subrosion model Latin Hypercube Sampling has been used for determine the different values for the uncertain parameters. The influence of the uncertainty in the parameters on the dose calculations has been investigated by the following sensitivity techniques: Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficients, Partial Rank Correlation Coefficients, Standardised Rank Regression Coefficients, and the Smirnov Test. (orig./HP)

  18. Source term modelling parameters for Project-90

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, W.; Smith, G.; Worgan, K.; Hodgkinson, D.; Andersson, K.

    1992-04-01

    This document summarises the input parameters for the source term modelling within Project-90. In the first place, the parameters relate to the CALIBRE near-field code which was developed for the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate's (SKI) Project-90 reference repository safety assessment exercise. An attempt has been made to give best estimate values and, where appropriate, a range which is related to variations around base cases. It should be noted that the data sets contain amendments to those considered by KBS-3. In particular, a completely new set of inventory data has been incorporated. The information given here does not constitute a complete set of parameter values for all parts of the CALIBRE code. Rather, it gives the key parameter values which are used in the constituent models within CALIBRE and the associated studies. For example, the inventory data acts as an input to the calculation of the oxidant production rates, which influence the generation of a redox front. The same data is also an initial value data set for the radionuclide migration component of CALIBRE. Similarly, the geometrical parameters of the near-field are common to both sub-models. The principal common parameters are gathered here for ease of reference and avoidance of unnecessary duplication and transcription errors. (au)

  19. [Three dimensional finite element model of a modified posterior cervical single open-door laminoplasty].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Q; Yang, Y; Fei, Q; Li, D; Li, J J; Meng, H; Su, N; Fan, Z H; Wang, B Q

    2017-06-06

    Objective: To build a three-dimensional finite element models of a modified posterior cervical single open-door laminoplasty with short-segmental lateral mass screws fusion. Methods: The C(2)-C(7) segmental data were obtained from computed tomography (CT) scans of a male patient with cervical spondylotic myelopathy and spinal stenosis.Three-dimensional finite element models of a modified cervical single open-door laminoplasty (before and after surgery) were constructed by the combination of software package MIMICS, Geomagic and ABAQUS.The models were composed of bony vertebrae, articulating facets, intervertebral disc and associated ligaments.The loads of moments 1.5Nm at different directions (flexion, extension, lateral bending and axial rotation)were applied at preoperative model to calculate intersegmental ranges of motion.The results were compared with the previous studies to verify the validation of the models. Results: Three-dimensional finite element models of the modified cervical single open- door laminoplasty had 102258 elements (preoperative model) and 161 892 elements (postoperative model) respectively, including C(2-7) six bony vertebraes, C(2-3)-C(6-7) five intervertebral disc, main ligaments and lateral mass screws.The intersegmental responses at the preoperative model under the loads of moments 1.5 Nm at different directions were similar to the previous published data. Conclusion: Three-dimensional finite element models of the modified cervical single open- door laminoplasty were successfully established and had a good biological fidelity, which can be used for further study.

  20. NIMROD: a program for inference via a normal approximation of the posterior in models with random effects based on ordinary differential equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prague, Mélanie; Commenges, Daniel; Guedj, Jérémie; Drylewicz, Julia; Thiébaut, Rodolphe

    2013-08-01

    Models based on ordinary differential equations (ODE) are widespread tools for describing dynamical systems. In biomedical sciences, data from each subject can be sparse making difficult to precisely estimate individual parameters by standard non-linear regression but information can often be gained from between-subjects variability. This makes natural the use of mixed-effects models to estimate population parameters. Although the maximum likelihood approach is a valuable option, identifiability issues favour Bayesian approaches which can incorporate prior knowledge in a flexible way. However, the combination of difficulties coming from the ODE system and from the presence of random effects raises a major numerical challenge. Computations can be simplified by making a normal approximation of the posterior to find the maximum of the posterior distribution (MAP). Here we present the NIMROD program (normal approximation inference in models with random effects based on ordinary differential equations) devoted to the MAP estimation in ODE models. We describe the specific implemented features such as convergence criteria and an approximation of the leave-one-out cross-validation to assess the model quality of fit. In pharmacokinetics models, first, we evaluate the properties of this algorithm and compare it with FOCE and MCMC algorithms in simulations. Then, we illustrate NIMROD use on Amprenavir pharmacokinetics data from the PUZZLE clinical trial in HIV infected patients. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Analysis of Modeling Parameters on Threaded Screws.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vigil, Miquela S. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brake, Matthew Robert [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Vangoethem, Douglas [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-06-01

    Assembled mechanical systems often contain a large number of bolted connections. These bolted connections (joints) are integral aspects of the load path for structural dynamics, and, consequently, are paramount for calculating a structure's stiffness and energy dissipation prop- erties. However, analysts have not found the optimal method to model appropriately these bolted joints. The complexity of the screw geometry cause issues when generating a mesh of the model. This paper will explore different approaches to model a screw-substrate connec- tion. Model parameters such as mesh continuity, node alignment, wedge angles, and thread to body element size ratios are examined. The results of this study will give analysts a better understanding of the influences of these parameters and will aide in finding the optimal method to model bolted connections.

  2. Parameter Estimation of Spacecraft Fuel Slosh Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gangadharan, Sathya; Sudermann, James; Marlowe, Andrea; Njengam Charles

    2004-01-01

    Fuel slosh in the upper stages of a spinning spacecraft during launch has been a long standing concern for the success of a space mission. Energy loss through the movement of the liquid fuel in the fuel tank affects the gyroscopic stability of the spacecraft and leads to nutation (wobble) which can cause devastating control issues. The rate at which nutation develops (defined by Nutation Time Constant (NTC can be tedious to calculate and largely inaccurate if done during the early stages of spacecraft design. Pure analytical means of predicting the influence of onboard liquids have generally failed. A strong need exists to identify and model the conditions of resonance between nutation motion and liquid modes and to understand the general characteristics of the liquid motion that causes the problem in spinning spacecraft. A 3-D computerized model of the fuel slosh that accounts for any resonant modes found in the experimental testing will allow for increased accuracy in the overall modeling process. Development of a more accurate model of the fuel slosh currently lies in a more generalized 3-D computerized model incorporating masses, springs and dampers. Parameters describing the model include the inertia tensor of the fuel, spring constants, and damper coefficients. Refinement and understanding the effects of these parameters allow for a more accurate simulation of fuel slosh. The current research will focus on developing models of different complexity and estimating the model parameters that will ultimately provide a more realistic prediction of Nutation Time Constant obtained through simulation.

  3. Modeling Site Heterogeneity with Posterior Mean Site Frequency Profiles Accelerates Accurate Phylogenomic Estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Huai-Chun; Minh, Bui Quang; Susko, Edward; Roger, Andrew J

    2018-03-01

    Proteins have distinct structural and functional constraints at different sites that lead to site-specific preferences for particular amino acid residues as the sequences evolve. Heterogeneity in the amino acid substitution process between sites is not modeled by commonly used empirical amino acid exchange matrices. Such model misspecification can lead to artefacts in phylogenetic estimation such as long-branch attraction. Although sophisticated site-heterogeneous mixture models have been developed to address this problem in both Bayesian and maximum likelihood (ML) frameworks, their formidable computational time and memory usage severely limits their use in large phylogenomic analyses. Here we propose a posterior mean site frequency (PMSF) method as a rapid and efficient approximation to full empirical profile mixture models for ML analysis. The PMSF approach assigns a conditional mean amino acid frequency profile to each site calculated based on a mixture model fitted to the data using a preliminary guide tree. These PMSF profiles can then be used for in-depth tree-searching in place of the full mixture model. Compared with widely used empirical mixture models with $k$ classes, our implementation of PMSF in IQ-TREE (http://www.iqtree.org) speeds up the computation by approximately $k$/1.5-fold and requires a small fraction of the RAM. Furthermore, this speedup allows, for the first time, full nonparametric bootstrap analyses to be conducted under complex site-heterogeneous models on large concatenated data matrices. Our simulations and empirical data analyses demonstrate that PMSF can effectively ameliorate long-branch attraction artefacts. In some empirical and simulation settings PMSF provided more accurate estimates of phylogenies than the mixture models from which they derive.

  4. Joint Model and Parameter Dimension Reduction for Bayesian Inversion Applied to an Ice Sheet Flow Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghattas, O.; Petra, N.; Cui, T.; Marzouk, Y.; Benjamin, P.; Willcox, K.

    2016-12-01

    Model-based projections of the dynamics of the polar ice sheets play a central role in anticipating future sea level rise. However, a number of mathematical and computational challenges place significant barriers on improving predictability of these models. One such challenge is caused by the unknown model parameters (e.g., in the basal boundary conditions) that must be inferred from heterogeneous observational data, leading to an ill-posed inverse problem and the need to quantify uncertainties in its solution. In this talk we discuss the problem of estimating the uncertainty in the solution of (large-scale) ice sheet inverse problems within the framework of Bayesian inference. Computing the general solution of the inverse problem--i.e., the posterior probability density--is intractable with current methods on today's computers, due to the expense of solving the forward model (3D full Stokes flow with nonlinear rheology) and the high dimensionality of the uncertain parameters (which are discretizations of the basal sliding coefficient field). To overcome these twin computational challenges, it is essential to exploit problem structure (e.g., sensitivity of the data to parameters, the smoothing property of the forward model, and correlations in the prior). To this end, we present a data-informed approach that identifies low-dimensional structure in both parameter space and the forward model state space. This approach exploits the fact that the observations inform only a low-dimensional parameter space and allows us to construct a parameter-reduced posterior. Sampling this parameter-reduced posterior still requires multiple evaluations of the forward problem, therefore we also aim to identify a low dimensional state space to reduce the computational cost. To this end, we apply a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) approach to approximate the state using a low-dimensional manifold constructed using ``snapshots'' from the parameter reduced posterior, and the discrete

  5. Model comparisons and genetic and environmental parameter ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    arc

    Model comparisons and genetic and environmental parameter estimates of growth and the ... breeding strategies and for accurate breeding value estimation. The objectives ...... Sci. 23, 72-76. Van Wyk, J.B., Fair, M.D. & Cloete, S.W.P., 2003.

  6. The rho-parameter in supersymmetric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, C.S.; Inami, T.; Sakai, N.

    1983-10-01

    The electroweak rho-parameter is examined in a general class of supersymmetric models. Formulae are given for one-loop contributions to Δrho from scalar quarks and leptons, gauge-Higgs fermions and an extra doublet of Higgs scalars. Mass differences between members of isodoublet scalar quarks and leptons are constrained to be less than about 200 GeV. (author)

  7. A lumped parameter model of plasma focus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez, Jose H.; Florido, Pablo C.; Bruzzone, H.; Clausse, Alejandro

    1999-01-01

    A lumped parameter model to estimate neutron emission of a plasma focus (PF) device is developed. The dynamic of the current sheet is calculated using a snowplow model, and the neutron production with the thermal fusion cross section for a deuterium filling gas. The results were contrasted as a function of the filling pressure with experimental measurements of a 3.68 KJ Mather-type PF. (author)

  8. One parameter model potential for noble metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Idrees, M.; Khwaja, F.A.; Razmi, M.S.K.

    1981-08-01

    A phenomenological one parameter model potential which includes s-d hybridization and core-core exchange contributions is proposed for noble metals. A number of interesting properties like liquid metal resistivities, band gaps, thermoelectric powers and ion-ion interaction potentials are calculated for Cu, Ag and Au. The results obtained are in better agreement with experiment than the ones predicted by the other model potentials in the literature. (author)

  9. Calibration of discrete element model parameters: soybeans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghodki, Bhupendra M.; Patel, Manish; Namdeo, Rohit; Carpenter, Gopal

    2018-05-01

    Discrete element method (DEM) simulations are broadly used to get an insight of flow characteristics of granular materials in complex particulate systems. DEM input parameters for a model are the critical prerequisite for an efficient simulation. Thus, the present investigation aims to determine DEM input parameters for Hertz-Mindlin model using soybeans as a granular material. To achieve this aim, widely acceptable calibration approach was used having standard box-type apparatus. Further, qualitative and quantitative findings such as particle profile, height of kernels retaining the acrylic wall, and angle of repose of experiments and numerical simulations were compared to get the parameters. The calibrated set of DEM input parameters includes the following (a) material properties: particle geometric mean diameter (6.24 mm); spherical shape; particle density (1220 kg m^{-3} ), and (b) interaction parameters such as particle-particle: coefficient of restitution (0.17); coefficient of static friction (0.26); coefficient of rolling friction (0.08), and particle-wall: coefficient of restitution (0.35); coefficient of static friction (0.30); coefficient of rolling friction (0.08). The results may adequately be used to simulate particle scale mechanics (grain commingling, flow/motion, forces, etc) of soybeans in post-harvest machinery and devices.

  10. Modeling the Effects of Spaceflight on the Posterior Eye in VIIP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ethier, C. R.; Feola, A. J.; Raykin, J.; Mulugeta, L.; Gleason, R.; Myers, J. G.; Nelson, E. S.; Samuels, B.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: Visual Impairment and Intracranial Pressure (VIIP) syndrome is a new and significant health concern for long-duration space missions. Its etiology is unknown, but is thought to involve elevated intracranial pressure (ICP)that induces connective tissue changes and remodeling in the posterior eye (Alexander et al. 2012). Here we study the acute biomechanical response of the lamina cribrosa (LC) and optic nerve to elevations in ICP utilizing finite element (FE) modeling. Methods: Using the geometry of the posterior eye from previous axisymmetric FE models (Sigal et al. 2004), we added an elongated optic nerve and optic nerve sheath, including the pia and dura. Tissues were modeled as linear elastic solids. Intraocular pressure and central retinal vessel pressures were set at 15 mmHg and 55 mmHg, respectively. ICP varied from 0 mmHg (suitable for standing on earth) to 30 mmHg (representing severe intracranial hypertension, thought to occur in space flight). We focused on strains and deformations in the LC and optic nerve (within 1 mm of the LC) since we hypothesize that they may contribute to vision loss in VIIP. Results: Elevating ICP from 0 to 30 mmHg significantly altered the strain distributions in both the LC and optic nerve (Figure), notably leading to more extreme strain values in both tension and compression. Specifically, the extreme (95th percentile) tensile strains in the LC and optic nerve increased by 2.7- and 3.8-fold, respectively. Similarly, elevation of ICP led to a 2.5- and 3.3-fold increase in extreme (5th percentile) compressive strains in the LC and optic nerve, respectively. Conclusions: The elevated ICP thought to occur during spaceflight leads to large acute changes in the biomechanical environment of the LC and optic nerve, and we hypothesize that such changes can activate mechanosensitive cells and invoke tissue remodeling. These simulations provide a foundation for more comprehensive studies of microgravity effects on human vision, e

  11. Parameter optimization for surface flux transport models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitbread, T.; Yeates, A. R.; Muñoz-Jaramillo, A.; Petrie, G. J. D.

    2017-11-01

    Accurate prediction of solar activity calls for precise calibration of solar cycle models. Consequently we aim to find optimal parameters for models which describe the physical processes on the solar surface, which in turn act as proxies for what occurs in the interior and provide source terms for coronal models. We use a genetic algorithm to optimize surface flux transport models using National Solar Observatory (NSO) magnetogram data for Solar Cycle 23. This is applied to both a 1D model that inserts new magnetic flux in the form of idealized bipolar magnetic regions, and also to a 2D model that assimilates specific shapes of real active regions. The genetic algorithm searches for parameter sets (meridional flow speed and profile, supergranular diffusivity, initial magnetic field, and radial decay time) that produce the best fit between observed and simulated butterfly diagrams, weighted by a latitude-dependent error structure which reflects uncertainty in observations. Due to the easily adaptable nature of the 2D model, the optimization process is repeated for Cycles 21, 22, and 24 in order to analyse cycle-to-cycle variation of the optimal solution. We find that the ranges and optimal solutions for the various regimes are in reasonable agreement with results from the literature, both theoretical and observational. The optimal meridional flow profiles for each regime are almost entirely within observational bounds determined by magnetic feature tracking, with the 2D model being able to accommodate the mean observed profile more successfully. Differences between models appear to be important in deciding values for the diffusive and decay terms. In like fashion, differences in the behaviours of different solar cycles lead to contrasts in parameters defining the meridional flow and initial field strength.

  12. Can the human lumbar posterior columns be stimulated by transcutaneous spinal cord stimulation? A modeling study

    OpenAIRE

    Danner, Simon M.; Hofstoetter, Ursula S.; Ladenbauer, Josef; Rattay, Frank; Minassian, Karen

    2011-01-01

    Stimulation of different spinal cord segments in humans is a widely developed clinical practice for modification of pain, altered sensation and movement. The human lumbar cord has become a target for modification of motor control by epidural and more recently by transcutaneous spinal cord stimulation. Posterior columns of the lumbar spinal cord represent a vertical system of axons and when activated can add other inputs to the motor control of the spinal cord than stimulated posterior roots. ...

  13. A new training model for robot-assisted urethrovesical anastomosis and posterior muscle-fascial reconstruction: the Verona training technique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cacciamani, G; De Marco, V; Siracusano, S; De Marchi, D; Bizzotto, L; Cerruto, M A; Motton, G; Porcaro, A B; Artibani, W

    2017-06-01

    A training model is usually needed to teach robotic surgical technique successfully. In this way, an ideal training model should mimic as much as possible the "in vivo" procedure and allow several consecutive surgical simulations. The goal of this study was to create a "wet lab" model suitable for RARP training programs, providing the simulation of the posterior fascial reconstruction. The second aim was to compare the original "Venezuelan" chicken model described by Sotelo to our training model. Our training model consists of performing an anastomosis, reproducing the surgical procedure in "vivo" as in RARP, between proventriculus and the proximal portion of the esophagus. A posterior fascial reconstruction simulating Rocco's stitch is performed between the tissues located under the posterior surface of the esophagus and the tissue represented by the serosa of the proventriculus. From 2014 to 2015, during 6 different full-immersion training courses, thirty-four surgeons performed the urethrovesical anastomosis using our model and the Sotelo's one. After the training period, each surgeon was asked to fill out a non-validated questionnaire to perform an evaluation of the differences between the two training models. Our model was judged the best model, in terms of similarity with urethral tissue and similarity with the anatomic unit urethra-pelvic wall. Our training model as reported by all trainees is easily reproducible and anatomically comparable with the urethrovesical anastomosis as performed during radical prostatectomy in humans. It is suitable for performing posterior fascial reconstruction reported by Rocco. In this context, our surgical training model could be routinely proposed in all robotic training courses to develop specific expertise in urethrovesical anastomosis with the reproducibility of the Rocco stitch.

  14. Constant-parameter capture-recapture models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brownie, C.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.

    1986-01-01

    Jolly (1982, Biometrics 38, 301-321) presented modifications of the Jolly-Seber model for capture-recapture data, which assume constant survival and/or capture rates. Where appropriate, because of the reduced number of parameters, these models lead to more efficient estimators than the Jolly-Seber model. The tests to compare models given by Jolly do not make complete use of the data, and we present here the appropriate modifications, and also indicate how to carry out goodness-of-fit tests which utilize individual capture history information. We also describe analogous models for the case where young and adult animals are tagged. The availability of computer programs to perform the analysis is noted, and examples are given using output from these programs.

  15. Modelling tourists arrival using time varying parameter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suciptawati, P.; Sukarsa, K. G.; Kencana, Eka N.

    2017-06-01

    The importance of tourism and its related sectors to support economic development and poverty reduction in many countries increase researchers’ attentions to study and model tourists’ arrival. This work is aimed to demonstrate time varying parameter (TVP) technique to model the arrival of Korean’s tourists to Bali. The number of Korean tourists whom visiting Bali for period January 2010 to December 2015 were used to model the number of Korean’s tourists to Bali (KOR) as dependent variable. The predictors are the exchange rate of Won to IDR (WON), the inflation rate in Korea (INFKR), and the inflation rate in Indonesia (INFID). Observing tourists visit to Bali tend to fluctuate by their nationality, then the model was built by applying TVP and its parameters were approximated using Kalman Filter algorithm. The results showed all of predictor variables (WON, INFKR, INFID) significantly affect KOR. For in-sample and out-of-sample forecast with ARIMA’s forecasted values for the predictors, TVP model gave mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) as much as 11.24 percent and 12.86 percent, respectively.

  16. A Bayesian approach for parameter estimation and prediction using a computationally intensive model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Higdon, Dave; McDonnell, Jordan D; Schunck, Nicolas; Sarich, Jason; Wild, Stefan M

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian methods have been successful in quantifying uncertainty in physics-based problems in parameter estimation and prediction. In these cases, physical measurements y are modeled as the best fit of a physics-based model η(θ), where θ denotes the uncertain, best input setting. Hence the statistical model is of the form y=η(θ)+ϵ, where ϵ accounts for measurement, and possibly other, error sources. When nonlinearity is present in η(⋅), the resulting posterior distribution for the unknown parameters in the Bayesian formulation is typically complex and nonstandard, requiring computationally demanding computational approaches such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to produce multivariate draws from the posterior. Although generally applicable, MCMC requires thousands (or even millions) of evaluations of the physics model η(⋅). This requirement is problematic if the model takes hours or days to evaluate. To overcome this computational bottleneck, we present an approach adapted from Bayesian model calibration. This approach combines output from an ensemble of computational model runs with physical measurements, within a statistical formulation, to carry out inference. A key component of this approach is a statistical response surface, or emulator, estimated from the ensemble of model runs. We demonstrate this approach with a case study in estimating parameters for a density functional theory model, using experimental mass/binding energy measurements from a collection of atomic nuclei. We also demonstrate how this approach produces uncertainties in predictions for recent mass measurements obtained at Argonne National Laboratory. (paper)

  17. The lumped parameter model for fuel pins

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, W S [Ontario Hydro, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    1996-12-31

    The use of a lumped fuel-pin model in a thermal-hydraulic code is advantageous because of computational simplicity and efficiency. The model uses an averaging approach over the fuel cross section and makes some simplifying assumptions to describe the transient equations for the averaged fuel, fuel centerline and sheath temperatures. It is shown that by introducing a factor in the effective fuel conductivity, the analytical solution of the mean fuel temperature can be modified to simulate the effects of the flux depression in the heat generation rate and the variation in fuel thermal conductivity. The simplified analytical method used in the transient equation is presented. The accuracy of the lumped parameter model has been compared with the results from the finite difference method. (author). 4 refs., 2 tabs., 4 figs.

  18. DREAM(D): An adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation algorithm to solve discrete, noncontinuous, and combinatorial posterior parameter estimation problems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrugt, J.A.; ter Braak, C.J.F.

    2011-01-01

    Formal and informal Bayesian approaches have found widespread implementation and use in environmental modeling to summarize parameter and predictive uncertainty. Successful implementation of these methods relies heavily on the availability of efficient sampling methods that approximate, as closely

  19. Modeling of Parameters of Subcritical Assembly SAD

    CERN Document Server

    Petrochenkov, S; Puzynin, I

    2005-01-01

    The accepted conceptual design of the experimental Subcritical Assembly in Dubna (SAD) is based on the MOX core with a nominal unit capacity of 25 kW (thermal). This corresponds to the multiplication coefficient $k_{\\rm eff} =0.95$ and accelerator beam power 1 kW. A subcritical assembly driven with the existing 660 MeV proton accelerator at the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research has been modelled in order to make choice of the optimal parameters for the future experiments. The Monte Carlo method was used to simulate neutron spectra, energy deposition and doses calculations. Some of the calculation results are presented in the paper.

  20. Parameter estimation in fractional diffusion models

    CERN Document Server

    Kubilius, Kęstutis; Ralchenko, Kostiantyn

    2017-01-01

    This book is devoted to parameter estimation in diffusion models involving fractional Brownian motion and related processes. For many years now, standard Brownian motion has been (and still remains) a popular model of randomness used to investigate processes in the natural sciences, financial markets, and the economy. The substantial limitation in the use of stochastic diffusion models with Brownian motion is due to the fact that the motion has independent increments, and, therefore, the random noise it generates is “white,” i.e., uncorrelated. However, many processes in the natural sciences, computer networks and financial markets have long-term or short-term dependences, i.e., the correlations of random noise in these processes are non-zero, and slowly or rapidly decrease with time. In particular, models of financial markets demonstrate various kinds of memory and usually this memory is modeled by fractional Brownian diffusion. Therefore, the book constructs diffusion models with memory and provides s...

  1. Quantifying Key Climate Parameter Uncertainties Using an Earth System Model with a Dynamic 3D Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, R.; Sriver, R. L.; Goes, M. P.; Urban, N.; Matthews, D.; Haran, M.; Keller, K.

    2011-12-01

    Climate projections hinge critically on uncertain climate model parameters such as climate sensitivity, vertical ocean diffusivity and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol forcings. Climate sensitivity is defined as the equilibrium global mean temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Vertical ocean diffusivity parameterizes sub-grid scale ocean vertical mixing processes. These parameters are typically estimated using Intermediate Complexity Earth System Models (EMICs) that lack a full 3D representation of the oceans, thereby neglecting the effects of mixing on ocean dynamics and meridional overturning. We improve on these studies by employing an EMIC with a dynamic 3D ocean model to estimate these parameters. We carry out historical climate simulations with the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) varying parameters that affect climate sensitivity, vertical ocean mixing, and effects of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols. We use a Bayesian approach whereby the likelihood of each parameter combination depends on how well the model simulates surface air temperature and upper ocean heat content. We use a Gaussian process emulator to interpolate the model output to an arbitrary parameter setting. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to estimate the posterior probability distribution function (pdf) of these parameters. We explore the sensitivity of the results to prior assumptions about the parameters. In addition, we estimate the relative skill of different observations to constrain the parameters. We quantify the uncertainty in parameter estimates stemming from climate variability, model and observational errors. We explore the sensitivity of key decision-relevant climate projections to these parameters. We find that climate sensitivity and vertical ocean diffusivity estimates are consistent with previously published results. The climate sensitivity pdf is strongly affected by the prior assumptions, and by the scaling

  2. Bayesian Inference on the Memory Parameter for Gamma-Modulated Regression Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Plinio Andrade

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we propose a Bayesian methodology to make inferences for the memory parameter and other characteristics under non-standard assumptions for a class of stochastic processes. This class generalizes the Gamma-modulated process, with trajectories that exhibit long memory behavior, as well as decreasing variability as time increases. Different values of the memory parameter influence the speed of this decrease, making this heteroscedastic model very flexible. Its properties are used to implement an approximate Bayesian computation and MCMC scheme to obtain posterior estimates. We test and validate our method through simulations and real data from the big earthquake that occurred in 2010 in Chile.

  3. Moose models with vanishing S parameter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casalbuoni, R.; De Curtis, S.; Dominici, D.

    2004-01-01

    In the linear moose framework, which naturally emerges in deconstruction models, we show that there is a unique solution for the vanishing of the S parameter at the lowest order in the weak interactions. We consider an effective gauge theory based on K SU(2) gauge groups, K+1 chiral fields, and electroweak groups SU(2) L and U(1) Y at the ends of the chain of the moose. S vanishes when a link in the moose chain is cut. As a consequence one has to introduce a dynamical nonlocal field connecting the two ends of the moose. Then the model acquires an additional custodial symmetry which protects this result. We examine also the possibility of a strong suppression of S through an exponential behavior of the link couplings as suggested by the Randall Sundrum metric

  4. Parameter sensitivity analysis of a 1-D cold region lake model for land-surface schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerrero, José-Luis; Pernica, Patricia; Wheater, Howard; Mackay, Murray; Spence, Chris

    2017-12-01

    Lakes might be sentinels of climate change, but the uncertainty in their main feedback to the atmosphere - heat-exchange fluxes - is often not considered within climate models. Additionally, these fluxes are seldom measured, hindering critical evaluation of model output. Analysis of the Canadian Small Lake Model (CSLM), a one-dimensional integral lake model, was performed to assess its ability to reproduce diurnal and seasonal variations in heat fluxes and the sensitivity of simulated fluxes to changes in model parameters, i.e., turbulent transport parameters and the light extinction coefficient (Kd). A C++ open-source software package, Problem Solving environment for Uncertainty Analysis and Design Exploration (PSUADE), was used to perform sensitivity analysis (SA) and identify the parameters that dominate model behavior. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) was applied to quantify the fluxes' uncertainty, comparing daily-averaged eddy-covariance observations to the output of CSLM. Seven qualitative and two quantitative SA methods were tested, and the posterior likelihoods of the modeled parameters, obtained from the GLUE analysis, were used to determine the dominant parameters and the uncertainty in the modeled fluxes. Despite the ubiquity of the equifinality issue - different parameter-value combinations yielding equivalent results - the answer to the question was unequivocal: Kd, a measure of how much light penetrates the lake, dominates sensible and latent heat fluxes, and the uncertainty in their estimates is strongly related to the accuracy with which Kd is determined. This is important since accurate and continuous measurements of Kd could reduce modeling uncertainty.

  5. Models for setting ATM parameter values

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blaabjerg, Søren; Gravey, A.; Romæuf, L.

    1996-01-01

    essential to set traffic characteristic values that are relevant to the considered cell stream, and that ensure that the amount of non-conforming traffic is small. Using a queueing model representation for the GCRA formalism, several methods are available for choosing the traffic characteristics. This paper......In ATM networks, a user should negotiate at connection set-up a traffic contract which includes traffic characteristics and requested QoS. The traffic characteristics currently considered are the Peak Cell Rate, the Sustainable Cell Rate, the Intrinsic Burst Tolerance and the Cell Delay Variation...... (CDV) tolerance(s). The values taken by these traffic parameters characterize the so-called ''Worst Case Traffic'' that is used by CAC procedures for accepting a new connection and allocating resources to it. Conformance to the negotiated traffic characteristics is defined, at the ingress User...

  6. Convergence monitoring of Markov chains generated for inverse tracking of unknown model parameters in atmospheric dispersion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Joo Yeon; Ryu, Hyung Joon; Jung, Gyu Hwan; Lee, Jai Ki

    2011-01-01

    The dependency within the sequential realizations in the generated Markov chains and their reliabilities are monitored by introducing the autocorrelation and the potential scale reduction factor (PSRF) by model parameters in the atmospheric dispersion. These two diagnostics have been applied for the posterior quantities of the release point and the release rate inferred through the inverse tracking of unknown model parameters for the Yonggwang atmospheric tracer experiment in Korea. The autocorrelations of model parameters are decreasing to low values approaching to zero with increase of lag, resulted in decrease of the dependencies within the two sequential realizations. Their PSRFs are reduced to within 1.2 and the adequate simulation number recognized from these results. From these two convergence diagnostics, the validation of Markov chains generated have been ensured and PSRF then is especially suggested as the efficient tool for convergence monitoring for the source reconstruction in atmospheric dispersion. (author)

  7. Parameter Estimation of Partial Differential Equation Models

    KAUST Repository

    Xun, Xiaolei; Cao, Jiguo; Mallick, Bani; Maity, Arnab; Carroll, Raymond J.

    2013-01-01

    PDEs used in practice have no analytic solutions, and can only be solved with numerical methods. Currently, methods for estimating PDE parameters require repeatedly solving PDEs numerically under thousands of candidate parameter values, and thus

  8. Estimation of Community Land Model parameters for an improved assessment of net carbon fluxes at European sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post, Hanna; Vrugt, Jasper A.; Fox, Andrew; Vereecken, Harry; Hendricks Franssen, Harrie-Jan

    2017-03-01

    The Community Land Model (CLM) contains many parameters whose values are uncertain and thus require careful estimation for model application at individual sites. Here we used Bayesian inference with the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM(zs)) algorithm to estimate eight CLM v.4.5 ecosystem parameters using 1 year records of half-hourly net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) observations of four central European sites with different plant functional types (PFTs). The posterior CLM parameter distributions of each site were estimated per individual season and on a yearly basis. These estimates were then evaluated using NEE data from an independent evaluation period and data from "nearby" FLUXNET sites at 600 km distance to the original sites. Latent variables (multipliers) were used to treat explicitly uncertainty in the initial carbon-nitrogen pools. The posterior parameter estimates were superior to their default values in their ability to track and explain the measured NEE data of each site. The seasonal parameter values reduced with more than 50% (averaged over all sites) the bias in the simulated NEE values. The most consistent performance of CLM during the evaluation period was found for the posterior parameter values of the forest PFTs, and contrary to the C3-grass and C3-crop sites, the latent variables of the initial pools further enhanced the quality-of-fit. The carbon sink function of the forest PFTs significantly increased with the posterior parameter estimates. We thus conclude that land surface model predictions of carbon stocks and fluxes require careful consideration of uncertain ecological parameters and initial states.

  9. HIV Model Parameter Estimates from Interruption Trial Data including Drug Efficacy and Reservoir Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Rutao; Piovoso, Michael J.; Martinez-Picado, Javier; Zurakowski, Ryan

    2012-01-01

    Mathematical models based on ordinary differential equations (ODE) have had significant impact on understanding HIV disease dynamics and optimizing patient treatment. A model that characterizes the essential disease dynamics can be used for prediction only if the model parameters are identifiable from clinical data. Most previous parameter identification studies for HIV have used sparsely sampled data from the decay phase following the introduction of therapy. In this paper, model parameters are identified from frequently sampled viral-load data taken from ten patients enrolled in the previously published AutoVac HAART interruption study, providing between 69 and 114 viral load measurements from 3–5 phases of viral decay and rebound for each patient. This dataset is considerably larger than those used in previously published parameter estimation studies. Furthermore, the measurements come from two separate experimental conditions, which allows for the direct estimation of drug efficacy and reservoir contribution rates, two parameters that cannot be identified from decay-phase data alone. A Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo method is used to estimate the model parameter values, with initial estimates obtained using nonlinear least-squares methods. The posterior distributions of the parameter estimates are reported and compared for all patients. PMID:22815727

  10. A study to compare the efficacy of polyether ether ketone rod device with titanium devices in posterior spinal fusion in a canine model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Nanxiang; Xie, Huanxin; Xi, Chunyang; Zhang, Han; Yan, Jinglong

    2017-03-09

    The benefits of posterior lumbar fusion surgery with orthotopic paraspinal muscle-pediculated bone flaps are well established. However, the problem of non-union due to mechanical support is not completely resolved. The aim of the study was to compare the efficacy of polyether ether ketone (PEEK) rod device with conventional titanium devices in the posterior lumbar fusion surgery with orthotopic paraspinal muscle-pediculated bone flaps. This was a randomized controlled study with an experimental animal model. Thirty-two mongrel dogs were randomly divided into two groups-control group (n = 16), which received the titanium device and the treatment group (n = 16), which received PEEK rods. The animals were sacrificed 8 or 16 weeks after surgery. Lumbar spines of dogs in both groups were removed, harvested, and assessed for radiographic, biomechanical, and histological changes. Results in the current study indicated that there was no significant difference in the lumbar spine of the control and treatment groups in terms of radiographic, manual palpation, and gross examination. However, certain parameters of biomechanical testing showed significant differences (p < 0.05) in stiffness and displacement, revealing a better fusion (treatment group showed decreased stiffness with decreased displacement) of the bone graft. Similarly, the histological analysis also revealed a significant fusion mass in both treatment and control groups (p < 0.05). These findings revealed that fixation using PEEK connecting rod could improve the union of the bone graft in the posterior lumbar spine fusion surgery compared with that of the titanium rod fixation.

  11. Inference of reactive transport model parameters using a Bayesian multivariate approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carniato, Luca; Schoups, Gerrit; van de Giesen, Nick

    2014-08-01

    Parameter estimation of subsurface transport models from multispecies data requires the definition of an objective function that includes different types of measurements. Common approaches are weighted least squares (WLS), where weights are specified a priori for each measurement, and weighted least squares with weight estimation (WLS(we)) where weights are estimated from the data together with the parameters. In this study, we formulate the parameter estimation task as a multivariate Bayesian inference problem. The WLS and WLS(we) methods are special cases in this framework, corresponding to specific prior assumptions about the residual covariance matrix. The Bayesian perspective allows for generalizations to cases where residual correlation is important and for efficient inference by analytically integrating out the variances (weights) and selected covariances from the joint posterior. Specifically, the WLS and WLS(we) methods are compared to a multivariate (MV) approach that accounts for specific residual correlations without the need for explicit estimation of the error parameters. When applied to inference of reactive transport model parameters from column-scale data on dissolved species concentrations, the following results were obtained: (1) accounting for residual correlation between species provides more accurate parameter estimation for high residual correlation levels whereas its influence for predictive uncertainty is negligible, (2) integrating out the (co)variances leads to an efficient estimation of the full joint posterior with a reduced computational effort compared to the WLS(we) method, and (3) in the presence of model structural errors, none of the methods is able to identify the correct parameter values.

  12. Patient-specific parameter estimation in single-ventricle lumped circulation models under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiavazzi, Daniele E.; Baretta, Alessia; Pennati, Giancarlo; Hsia, Tain-Yen; Marsden, Alison L.

    2017-01-01

    Summary Computational models of cardiovascular physiology can inform clinical decision-making, providing a physically consistent framework to assess vascular pressures and flow distributions, and aiding in treatment planning. In particular, lumped parameter network (LPN) models that make an analogy to electrical circuits offer a fast and surprisingly realistic method to reproduce the circulatory physiology. The complexity of LPN models can vary significantly to account, for example, for cardiac and valve function, respiration, autoregulation, and time-dependent hemodynamics. More complex models provide insight into detailed physiological mechanisms, but their utility is maximized if one can quickly identify patient specific parameters. The clinical utility of LPN models with many parameters will be greatly enhanced by automated parameter identification, particularly if parameter tuning can match non-invasively obtained clinical data. We present a framework for automated tuning of 0D lumped model parameters to match clinical data. We demonstrate the utility of this framework through application to single ventricle pediatric patients with Norwood physiology. Through a combination of local identifiability, Bayesian estimation and maximum a posteriori simplex optimization, we show the ability to automatically determine physiologically consistent point estimates of the parameters and to quantify uncertainty induced by errors and assumptions in the collected clinical data. We show that multi-level estimation, that is, updating the parameter prior information through sub-model analysis, can lead to a significant reduction in the parameter marginal posterior variance. We first consider virtual patient conditions, with clinical targets generated through model solutions, and second application to a cohort of four single-ventricle patients with Norwood physiology. PMID:27155892

  13. Influence of Population Variation of Physiological Parameters in Computational Models of Space Physiology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, J. G.; Feola, A.; Werner, C.; Nelson, E. S.; Raykin, J.; Samuels, B.; Ethier, C. R.

    2016-01-01

    The earliest manifestations of Visual Impairment and Intracranial Pressure (VIIP) syndrome become evident after months of spaceflight and include a variety of ophthalmic changes, including posterior globe flattening and distension of the optic nerve sheath. Prevailing evidence links the occurrence of VIIP to the cephalic fluid shift induced by microgravity and the subsequent pressure changes around the optic nerve and eye. Deducing the etiology of VIIP is challenging due to the wide range of physiological parameters that may be influenced by spaceflight and are required to address a realistic spectrum of physiological responses. Here, we report on the application of an efficient approach to interrogating physiological parameter space through computational modeling. Specifically, we assess the influence of uncertainty in input parameters for two models of VIIP syndrome: a lumped-parameter model (LPM) of the cardiovascular and central nervous systems, and a finite-element model (FEM) of the posterior eye, optic nerve head (ONH) and optic nerve sheath. Methods: To investigate the parameter space in each model, we employed Latin hypercube sampling partial rank correlation coefficient (LHSPRCC) strategies. LHS techniques outperform Monte Carlo approaches by enforcing efficient sampling across the entire range of all parameters. The PRCC method estimates the sensitivity of model outputs to these parameters while adjusting for the linear effects of all other inputs. The LPM analysis addressed uncertainties in 42 physiological parameters, such as initial compartmental volume and nominal compartment percentage of total cardiac output in the supine state, while the FEM evaluated the effects on biomechanical strain from uncertainties in 23 material and pressure parameters for the ocular anatomy. Results and Conclusion: The LPM analysis identified several key factors including high sensitivity to the initial fluid distribution. The FEM study found that intraocular pressure and

  14. Models for estimating photosynthesis parameters from in situ production profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovač, Žarko; Platt, Trevor; Sathyendranath, Shubha; Antunović, Suzana

    2017-12-01

    The rate of carbon assimilation in phytoplankton primary production models is mathematically prescribed with photosynthesis irradiance functions, which convert a light flux (energy) into a material flux (carbon). Information on this rate is contained in photosynthesis parameters: the initial slope and the assimilation number. The exactness of parameter values is crucial for precise calculation of primary production. Here we use a model of the daily production profile based on a suite of photosynthesis irradiance functions and extract photosynthesis parameters from in situ measured daily production profiles at the Hawaii Ocean Time-series station Aloha. For each function we recover parameter values, establish parameter distributions and quantify model skill. We observe that the choice of the photosynthesis irradiance function to estimate the photosynthesis parameters affects the magnitudes of parameter values as recovered from in situ profiles. We also tackle the problem of parameter exchange amongst the models and the effect it has on model performance. All models displayed little or no bias prior to parameter exchange, but significant bias following parameter exchange. The best model performance resulted from using optimal parameter values. Model formulation was extended further by accounting for spectral effects and deriving a spectral analytical solution for the daily production profile. The daily production profile was also formulated with time dependent growing biomass governed by a growth equation. The work on parameter recovery was further extended by exploring how to extract photosynthesis parameters from information on watercolumn production. It was demonstrated how to estimate parameter values based on a linearization of the full analytical solution for normalized watercolumn production and from the solution itself, without linearization. The paper complements previous works on photosynthesis irradiance models by analysing the skill and consistency of

  15. Assessment of structural model and parameter uncertainty with a multi-model system for soil water balance models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michalik, Thomas; Multsch, Sebastian; Frede, Hans-Georg; Breuer, Lutz

    2016-04-01

    Water for agriculture is strongly limited in arid and semi-arid regions and often of low quality in terms of salinity. The application of saline waters for irrigation increases the salt load in the rooting zone and has to be managed by leaching to maintain a healthy soil, i.e. to wash out salts by additional irrigation. Dynamic simulation models are helpful tools to calculate the root zone water fluxes and soil salinity content in order to investigate best management practices. However, there is little information on structural and parameter uncertainty for simulations regarding the water and salt balance of saline irrigation. Hence, we established a multi-model system with four different models (AquaCrop, RZWQM, SWAP, Hydrus1D/UNSATCHEM) to analyze the structural and parameter uncertainty by using the Global Likelihood and Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method. Hydrus1D/UNSATCHEM and SWAP were set up with multiple sets of different implemented functions (e.g. matric and osmotic stress for root water uptake) which results in a broad range of different model structures. The simulations were evaluated against soil water and salinity content observations. The posterior distribution of the GLUE analysis gives behavioral parameters sets and reveals uncertainty intervals for parameter uncertainty. Throughout all of the model sets, most parameters accounting for the soil water balance show a low uncertainty, only one or two out of five to six parameters in each model set displays a high uncertainty (e.g. pore-size distribution index in SWAP and Hydrus1D/UNSATCHEM). The differences between the models and model setups reveal the structural uncertainty. The highest structural uncertainty is observed for deep percolation fluxes between the model sets of Hydrus1D/UNSATCHEM (~200 mm) and RZWQM (~500 mm) that are more than twice as high for the latter. The model sets show a high variation in uncertainty intervals for deep percolation as well, with an interquartile range (IQR) of

  16. Building a Model Using Bayesian Network for Assessment of Posterior Probabilities of Falling From Height at Workplaces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed Shamseddin Alizadeh

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Falls from height are one of the main causes of fatal occupational injuries. The objective of this study was to present a model for estimating occurrence probability of falling from height. Methods: In order to make a list of factors affecting falls, we used four expert group's judgment, literature review and an available database. Then the validity and reliability of designed questionnaire were determined and Bayesian networks were built. The built network, nodes and curves were quantified. For network sensitivity analysis, four types of analysis carried out. Results: A Bayesian network for assessment of posterior probabilities of falling from height proposed. The presented Bayesian network model shows the interrelationships among 37 causes affecting the falling from height and can calculate its posterior probabilities. The most important factors affecting falling were Non-compliance with safety instructions for work at height (0.127, Lack of safety equipment for work at height (0.094 and Lack of safety instructions for work at height (0.071 respectively. Conclusion: The proposed Bayesian network used to determine how different causes could affect the falling from height at work. The findings of this study can be used to decide on the falling accident prevention programs.

  17. Optimizing incomplete sample designs for item response model parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Linden, Willem J.

    Several models for optimizing incomplete sample designs with respect to information on the item parameters are presented. The following cases are considered: (1) known ability parameters; (2) unknown ability parameters; (3) item sets with multiple ability scales; and (4) response models with

  18. Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Chemical Kinetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkel, Brian

    2011-01-01

    We discuss the need for devoting time in differential equations courses to modelling and the completion of the modelling process with efforts to estimate the parameters in the models using data. We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of chemical reactions of order n, where n = 0, 1, 2, and apply more general…

  19. Study on Parameters Modeling of Wind Turbines Using SCADA Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yonglong YAN

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Taking the advantage of the current massive monitoring data from Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA system of wind farm, it is of important significance for anomaly detection, early warning and fault diagnosis to build the data model of state parameters of wind turbines (WTs. The operational conditions and the relationships between the state parameters of wind turbines are complex. It is difficult to establish the model of state parameter accurately, and the modeling method of state parameters of wind turbines considering parameter selection is proposed. Firstly, by analyzing the characteristic of SCADA data, a reasonable range of data and monitoring parameters are chosen. Secondly, neural network algorithm is adapted, and the selection method of input parameters in the model is presented. Generator bearing temperature and cooling air temperature are regarded as target parameters, and the two models are built and input parameters of the models are selected, respectively. Finally, the parameter selection method in this paper and the method using genetic algorithm-partial least square (GA-PLS are analyzed comparatively, and the results show that the proposed methods are correct and effective. Furthermore, the modeling of two parameters illustrate that the method in this paper can applied to other state parameters of wind turbines.

  20. A practical method to assess model sensitivity and parameter uncertainty in C cycle models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delahaies, Sylvain; Roulstone, Ian; Nichols, Nancy

    2015-04-01

    data streams or by considering longer observation windows no systematic analysis has been carried out so far to explain the large differences among results. We consider adjoint based methods to investigate inverse problems using DALEC and various data streams. Using resolution matrices we study the nature of the inverse problems (solution existence, uniqueness and stability) and show how standard regularization techniques affect resolution and stability properties. Instead of using standard prior information as a penalty term in the cost function to regularize the problems we constraint the parameter space using ecological balance conditions and inequality constraints. The efficiency and rapidity of this approach allows us to compute ensembles of solutions to the inverse problems from which we can establish the robustness of the variational method and obtain non Gaussian posterior distributions for the model parameters and initial carbon stocks.

  1. Parameter Optimisation for the Behaviour of Elastic Models over Time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mosegaard, Jesper

    2004-01-01

    Optimisation of parameters for elastic models is essential for comparison or finding equivalent behaviour of elastic models when parameters cannot simply be transferred or converted. This is the case with a large range of commonly used elastic models. In this paper we present a general method tha...

  2. An automatic and effective parameter optimization method for model tuning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Zhang

    2015-11-01

    simulation results show that the optimum combination of these parameters determined using this method is able to improve the model's overall performance by 9 %. The proposed methodology and software framework can be easily applied to other GCMs to speed up the model development process, especially regarding unavoidable comprehensive parameter tuning during the model development stage.

  3. A new moving strategy for the sequential Monte Carlo approach in optimizing the hydrological model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Gaofeng; Li, Xin; Ma, Jinzhu; Wang, Yunquan; Liu, Shaomin; Huang, Chunlin; Zhang, Kun; Hu, Xiaoli

    2018-04-01

    Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers have become increasing popular for estimating the posterior parameter distribution with the non-linear dependency structures and multiple modes often present in hydrological models. However, the explorative capabilities and efficiency of the sampler depends strongly on the efficiency in the move step of SMC sampler. In this paper we presented a new SMC sampler entitled the Particle Evolution Metropolis Sequential Monte Carlo (PEM-SMC) algorithm, which is well suited to handle unknown static parameters of hydrologic model. The PEM-SMC sampler is inspired by the works of Liang and Wong (2001) and operates by incorporating the strengths of the genetic algorithm, differential evolution algorithm and Metropolis-Hasting algorithm into the framework of SMC. We also prove that the sampler admits the target distribution to be a stationary distribution. Two case studies including a multi-dimensional bimodal normal distribution and a conceptual rainfall-runoff hydrologic model by only considering parameter uncertainty and simultaneously considering parameter and input uncertainty show that PEM-SMC sampler is generally superior to other popular SMC algorithms in handling the high dimensional problems. The study also indicated that it may be important to account for model structural uncertainty by using multiplier different hydrological models in the SMC framework in future study.

  4. Efficient Bayesian parameter estimation with implicit sampling and surrogate modeling for a vadose zone hydrological problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Y.; Pau, G. S. H.; Finsterle, S.

    2015-12-01

    Parameter inversion involves inferring the model parameter values based on sparse observations of some observables. To infer the posterior probability distributions of the parameters, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are typically used. However, the large number of forward simulations needed and limited computational resources limit the complexity of the hydrological model we can use in these methods. In view of this, we studied the implicit sampling (IS) method, an efficient importance sampling technique that generates samples in the high-probability region of the posterior distribution and thus reduces the number of forward simulations that we need to run. For a pilot-point inversion of a heterogeneous permeability field based on a synthetic ponded infiltration experiment simu­lated with TOUGH2 (a subsurface modeling code), we showed that IS with linear map provides an accurate Bayesian description of the parameterized permeability field at the pilot points with just approximately 500 forward simulations. We further studied the use of surrogate models to improve the computational efficiency of parameter inversion. We implemented two reduced-order models (ROMs) for the TOUGH2 forward model. One is based on polynomial chaos expansion (PCE), of which the coefficients are obtained using the sparse Bayesian learning technique to mitigate the "curse of dimensionality" of the PCE terms. The other model is Gaussian process regression (GPR) for which different covariance, likelihood and inference models are considered. Preliminary results indicate that ROMs constructed based on the prior parameter space perform poorly. It is thus impractical to replace this hydrological model by a ROM directly in a MCMC method. However, the IS method can work with a ROM constructed for parameters in the close vicinity of the maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) estimate. We will discuss the accuracy and computational efficiency of using ROMs in the implicit sampling procedure

  5. Identifying the connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Guse

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In hydrological models, parameters are used to represent the time-invariant characteristics of catchments and to capture different aspects of hydrological response. Hence, model parameters need to be identified based on their role in controlling the hydrological behaviour. For the identification of meaningful parameter values, multiple and complementary performance criteria are used that compare modelled and measured discharge time series. The reliability of the identification of hydrologically meaningful model parameter values depends on how distinctly a model parameter can be assigned to one of the performance criteria. To investigate this, we introduce the new concept of connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria. The connective strength assesses the intensity in the interrelationship between model parameters and performance criteria in a bijective way. In our analysis of connective strength, model simulations are carried out based on a latin hypercube sampling. Ten performance criteria including Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE, Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE and its three components (alpha, beta and r as well as RSR (the ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation for different segments of the flow duration curve (FDC are calculated. With a joint analysis of two regression tree (RT approaches, we derive how a model parameter is connected to different performance criteria. At first, RTs are constructed using each performance criterion as the target variable to detect the most relevant model parameters for each performance criterion. Secondly, RTs are constructed using each parameter as the target variable to detect which performance criteria are impacted by changes in the values of one distinct model parameter. Based on this, appropriate performance criteria are identified for each model parameter. In this study, a high bijective connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria

  6. Application of Parameter Estimation for Diffusions and Mixture Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nolsøe, Kim

    The first part of this thesis proposes a method to determine the preferred number of structures, their proportions and the corresponding geometrical shapes of an m-membered ring molecule. This is obtained by formulating a statistical model for the data and constructing an algorithm which samples...... with the posterior score function. From an application point of view this methology is easy to apply, since the optimal estimating function G(;Xt1 ; : : : ;Xtn ) is equal to the classical optimal estimating function, plus a correction term which takes into account the prior information. The methology is particularly...

  7. Resuspension parameters for TRAC dispersion model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Langer, G.

    1987-01-01

    Resuspension factors for the wind erosion of soil contaminated with plutonium are necessary to run the Rocky Flats Plant Terrain Responsive Atmospheric Code (TRAC). The model predicts the dispersion and resulting population dose due to accidental plutonium releases

  8. Summary of the DREAM8 Parameter Estimation Challenge: Toward Parameter Identification for Whole-Cell Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan R Karr

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Whole-cell models that explicitly represent all cellular components at the molecular level have the potential to predict phenotype from genotype. However, even for simple bacteria, whole-cell models will contain thousands of parameters, many of which are poorly characterized or unknown. New algorithms are needed to estimate these parameters and enable researchers to build increasingly comprehensive models. We organized the Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods (DREAM 8 Whole-Cell Parameter Estimation Challenge to develop new parameter estimation algorithms for whole-cell models. We asked participants to identify a subset of parameters of a whole-cell model given the model's structure and in silico "experimental" data. Here we describe the challenge, the best performing methods, and new insights into the identifiability of whole-cell models. We also describe several valuable lessons we learned toward improving future challenges. Going forward, we believe that collaborative efforts supported by inexpensive cloud computing have the potential to solve whole-cell model parameter estimation.

  9. Modeling of mouse eye and errors in ocular parameters affecting refractive state

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bawa, Gurinder

    Rodents eye are particularly used to study refractive error state of an eye and development of refractive eye. Genetic organization of rodents is similar to that of humans, which makes them interesting candidates to be researched upon. From rodents family mice models are encouraged over rats because of availability of genetically engineered models. Despite of extensive work that has been performed on mice and rat models, still no one is able to quantify an optical model, due to variability in the reported ocular parameters. In this Dissertation, we have extracted ocular parameters and generated schematics of eye from the raw data from School of Medicine, Detroit. In order to see how the rays would travel through an eye and the defects associated with an eye; ray tracing has been performed using ocular parameters. Finally we have systematically evaluated the contribution of various ocular parameters, such as radii of curvature of ocular surfaces, thicknesses of ocular components, and refractive indices of ocular refractive media, using variational analysis and a computational model of the rodent eye. Variational analysis revealed that variation in all the ocular parameters does affect the refractive status of the eye, but depending upon the magnitude of the impact those parameters are listed as critical or non critical. Variation in the depth of the vitreous chamber, thickness of the lens, radius of the anterior surface of the cornea, radius of the anterior surface of the lens, as well as refractive indices for the lens and vitreous, appears to have the largest impact on the refractive error and thus are categorized as critical ocular parameters. The radii of the posterior surfaces of the cornea and lens have much smaller contributions to the refractive state, while the radii of the anterior and posterior surfaces of the retina have no effect on the refractive error. These data provide the framework for further refinement of the optical models of the rat and mouse

  10. Modeling Influenza Transmission Using Environmental Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soebiyanto, Radina P.; Kiang, Richard K.

    2010-01-01

    Influenza is an acute viral respiratory disease that has significant mortality, morbidity and economic burden worldwide. It infects approximately 5-15% of the world population, and causes 250,000 500,000 deaths each year. The role of environments on influenza is often drawn upon the latitude variability of influenza seasonality pattern. In regions with temperate climate, influenza epidemics exhibit clear seasonal pattern that peak during winter months, but it is not as evident in the tropics. Toward this end, we developed mathematical model and forecasting capabilities for influenza in regions characterized by warm climate Hong Kong (China) and Maricopa County (Arizona, USA). The best model for Hong Kong uses Land Surface Temperature (LST), precipitation and relative humidity as its covariates. Whereas for Maricopa County, we found that weekly influenza cases can be best modelled using mean air temperature as its covariates. Our forecasts can further guides public health organizations in targeting influenza prevention and control measures such as vaccination.

  11. Edge Modeling by Two Blur Parameters in Varying Contrasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Suyoung

    2018-06-01

    This paper presents a method of modeling edge profiles with two blur parameters, and estimating and predicting those edge parameters with varying brightness combinations and camera-to-object distances (COD). First, the validity of the edge model is proven mathematically. Then, it is proven experimentally with edges from a set of images captured for specifically designed target sheets and with edges from natural images. Estimation of the two blur parameters for each observed edge profile is performed with a brute-force method to find parameters that produce global minimum errors. Then, using the estimated blur parameters, actual blur parameters of edges with arbitrary brightness combinations are predicted using a surface interpolation method (i.e., kriging). The predicted surfaces show that the two blur parameters of the proposed edge model depend on both dark-side edge brightness and light-side edge brightness following a certain global trend. This is similar across varying CODs. The proposed edge model is compared with a one-blur parameter edge model using experiments of the root mean squared error for fitting the edge models to each observed edge profile. The comparison results suggest that the proposed edge model has superiority over the one-blur parameter edge model in most cases where edges have varying brightness combinations.

  12. Dynamics in the Parameter Space of a Neuron Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulo, C. Rech

    2012-06-01

    Some two-dimensional parameter-space diagrams are numerically obtained by considering the largest Lyapunov exponent for a four-dimensional thirteen-parameter Hindmarsh—Rose neuron model. Several different parameter planes are considered, and it is shown that depending on the combination of parameters, a typical scenario can be preserved: for some choice of two parameters, the parameter plane presents a comb-shaped chaotic region embedded in a large periodic region. It is also shown that there exist regions close to these comb-shaped chaotic regions, separated by the comb teeth, organizing themselves in period-adding bifurcation cascades.

  13. Advances in Modelling, System Identification and Parameter ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Authors show, using numerical simulation for two system functions, the improvement in percentage normalized ... of nonlinear systems. The approach is to use multiple linearizing models fitted along the operating trajectories. ... over emphasized in the light of present day high level of research activity in the field of aerospace ...

  14. Sensitivity of tumor motion simulation accuracy to lung biomechanical modeling approaches and parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tehrani, Joubin Nasehi; Yang, Yin; Werner, Rene; Lu, Wei; Low, Daniel; Guo, Xiaohu; Wang, Jing

    2015-11-21

    Finite element analysis (FEA)-based biomechanical modeling can be used to predict lung respiratory motion. In this technique, elastic models and biomechanical parameters are two important factors that determine modeling accuracy. We systematically evaluated the effects of lung and lung tumor biomechanical modeling approaches and related parameters to improve the accuracy of motion simulation of lung tumor center of mass (TCM) displacements. Experiments were conducted with four-dimensional computed tomography (4D-CT). A Quasi-Newton FEA was performed to simulate lung and related tumor displacements between end-expiration (phase 50%) and other respiration phases (0%, 10%, 20%, 30%, and 40%). Both linear isotropic and non-linear hyperelastic materials, including the neo-Hookean compressible and uncoupled Mooney-Rivlin models, were used to create a finite element model (FEM) of lung and tumors. Lung surface displacement vector fields (SDVFs) were obtained by registering the 50% phase CT to other respiration phases, using the non-rigid demons registration algorithm. The obtained SDVFs were used as lung surface displacement boundary conditions in FEM. The sensitivity of TCM displacement to lung and tumor biomechanical parameters was assessed in eight patients for all three models. Patient-specific optimal parameters were estimated by minimizing the TCM motion simulation errors between phase 50% and phase 0%. The uncoupled Mooney-Rivlin material model showed the highest TCM motion simulation accuracy. The average TCM motion simulation absolute errors for the Mooney-Rivlin material model along left-right, anterior-posterior, and superior-inferior directions were 0.80 mm, 0.86 mm, and 1.51 mm, respectively. The proposed strategy provides a reliable method to estimate patient-specific biomechanical parameters in FEM for lung tumor motion simulation.

  15. Sensitivity of tumor motion simulation accuracy to lung biomechanical modeling approaches and parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tehrani, Joubin Nasehi; Wang, Jing; Yang, Yin; Werner, Rene; Lu, Wei; Low, Daniel; Guo, Xiaohu

    2015-01-01

    Finite element analysis (FEA)-based biomechanical modeling can be used to predict lung respiratory motion. In this technique, elastic models and biomechanical parameters are two important factors that determine modeling accuracy. We systematically evaluated the effects of lung and lung tumor biomechanical modeling approaches and related parameters to improve the accuracy of motion simulation of lung tumor center of mass (TCM) displacements. Experiments were conducted with four-dimensional computed tomography (4D-CT). A Quasi-Newton FEA was performed to simulate lung and related tumor displacements between end-expiration (phase 50%) and other respiration phases (0%, 10%, 20%, 30%, and 40%). Both linear isotropic and non-linear hyperelastic materials, including the neo-Hookean compressible and uncoupled Mooney–Rivlin models, were used to create a finite element model (FEM) of lung and tumors. Lung surface displacement vector fields (SDVFs) were obtained by registering the 50% phase CT to other respiration phases, using the non-rigid demons registration algorithm. The obtained SDVFs were used as lung surface displacement boundary conditions in FEM. The sensitivity of TCM displacement to lung and tumor biomechanical parameters was assessed in eight patients for all three models. Patient-specific optimal parameters were estimated by minimizing the TCM motion simulation errors between phase 50% and phase 0%. The uncoupled Mooney–Rivlin material model showed the highest TCM motion simulation accuracy. The average TCM motion simulation absolute errors for the Mooney–Rivlin material model along left-right, anterior–posterior, and superior–inferior directions were 0.80 mm, 0.86 mm, and 1.51 mm, respectively. The proposed strategy provides a reliable method to estimate patient-specific biomechanical parameters in FEM for lung tumor motion simulation. (paper)

  16. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaylie Rasmuson; Kurt Rautenstrauch

    2003-01-01

    This analysis is one of nine technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. It documents input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCF). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in the biosphere Technical Work Plan (TWP, BSC 2003a). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development and therefore not available at the time this document is issued. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003b) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters. This analysis report, ANL-MGR-MD-000006, ''Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. This report defines and justifies values for twelve parameters required in the biosphere model. These parameters are related to use of contaminated groundwater to grow crops. The parameter values recommended in this report are used in the soil, plant, and carbon-14 submodels of the ERMYN

  17. A simulation of water pollution model parameter estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibler, J. F.

    1976-01-01

    A parameter estimation procedure for a water pollution transport model is elaborated. A two-dimensional instantaneous-release shear-diffusion model serves as representative of a simple transport process. Pollution concentration levels are arrived at via modeling of a remote-sensing system. The remote-sensed data are simulated by adding Gaussian noise to the concentration level values generated via the transport model. Model parameters are estimated from the simulated data using a least-squares batch processor. Resolution, sensor array size, and number and location of sensor readings can be found from the accuracies of the parameter estimates.

  18. Lumped parameter models for the interpretation of environmental tracer data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maloszewski, P.; Zuber, A.

    1996-01-01

    Principles of the lumped-parameter approach to the interpretation of environmental tracer data are given. The following models are considered: the piston flow model (PFM), exponential flow model (EM), linear model (LM), combined piston flow and exponential flow model (EPM), combined linear flow and piston flow model (LPM), and dispersion model (DM). The applicability of these models for the interpretation of different tracer data is discussed for a steady state flow approximation. Case studies are given to exemplify the applicability of the lumped-parameter approach. Description of a user-friendly computer program is given. (author). 68 refs, 25 figs, 4 tabs

  19. Lumped parameter models for the interpretation of environmental tracer data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maloszewski, P [GSF-Inst. for Hydrology, Oberschleissheim (Germany); Zuber, A [Institute of Nuclear Physics, Cracow (Poland)

    1996-10-01

    Principles of the lumped-parameter approach to the interpretation of environmental tracer data are given. The following models are considered: the piston flow model (PFM), exponential flow model (EM), linear model (LM), combined piston flow and exponential flow model (EPM), combined linear flow and piston flow model (LPM), and dispersion model (DM). The applicability of these models for the interpretation of different tracer data is discussed for a steady state flow approximation. Case studies are given to exemplify the applicability of the lumped-parameter approach. Description of a user-friendly computer program is given. (author). 68 refs, 25 figs, 4 tabs.

  20. Parameters modelling of amaranth grain processing technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derkanosova, N. M.; Shelamova, S. A.; Ponomareva, I. N.; Shurshikova, G. V.; Vasilenko, O. A.

    2018-03-01

    The article presents a technique that allows calculating the structure of a multicomponent bakery mixture for the production of enriched products, taking into account the instability of nutrient content, and ensuring the fulfilment of technological requirements and, at the same time considering consumer preferences. The results of modelling and analysis of optimal solutions are given by the example of calculating the structure of a three-component mixture of wheat and rye flour with an enriching component, that is, whole-hulled amaranth flour applied to the technology of bread from a mixture of rye and wheat flour on a liquid leaven.

  1. WATGIS: A GIS-Based Lumped Parameter Water Quality Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glenn P. Fernandez; George M. Chescheir; R. Wayne Skaggs; Devendra M. Amatya

    2002-01-01

    A Geographic Information System (GIS)­based, lumped parameter water quality model was developed to estimate the spatial and temporal nitrogen­loading patterns for lower coastal plain watersheds in eastern North Carolina. The model uses a spatially distributed delivery ratio (DR) parameter to account for nitrogen retention or loss along a drainage network. Delivery...

  2. A test for the parameters of multiple linear regression models ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A test for the parameters of multiple linear regression models is developed for conducting tests simultaneously on all the parameters of multiple linear regression models. The test is robust relative to the assumptions of homogeneity of variances and absence of serial correlation of the classical F-test. Under certain null and ...

  3. The influence of model parameters on catchment-response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shah, S.M.S.; Gabriel, H.F.; Khan, A.A.

    2002-01-01

    This paper deals with the study of influence of influence of conceptual rainfall-runoff model parameters on catchment response (runoff). A conceptual modified watershed yield model is employed to study the effects of model-parameters on catchment-response, i.e. runoff. The model is calibrated, using manual parameter-fitting approach, also known as trial and error parameter-fitting. In all, there are twenty one (21) parameters that control the functioning of the model. A lumped parametric approach is used. The detailed analysis was performed on Ling River near Kahuta, having catchment area of 56 sq. miles. The model includes physical parameters like GWSM, PETS, PGWRO, etc. fitting coefficients like CINF, CGWS, etc. and initial estimates of the surface-water and groundwater storages i.e. srosp and gwsp. Sensitivity analysis offers a good way, without repetititious computations, the proper weight and consideration that must be taken when each of the influencing factor is evaluated. Sensitivity-analysis was performed to evaluate the influence of model-parameters on runoff. The sensitivity and relative contributions of model parameters influencing catchment-response are studied. (author)

  4. Identification of ecosystem parameters by SDE-modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) for ecosystem modelling have attracted increasing attention during recent years. The modelling has mostly been through simulation experiments in order to analyse how system noise propagates through the ordinary differential equation formulation of ecosystem...... models. Estimation of parameters in SDEs is, however, possible by combining Kalman filter techniques and likelihood estimation. By modelling parameters as random walks it is possible to identify linear as well as non-linear interactions between ecosystem components. By formulating a simple linear SDE...

  5. Regionalization of SWAT Model Parameters for Use in Ungauged Watersheds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Indrajeet Chaubey

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available There has been a steady shift towards modeling and model-based approaches as primary methods of assessing watershed response to hydrologic inputs and land management, and of quantifying watershed-wide best management practice (BMP effectiveness. Watershed models often require some degree of calibration and validation to achieve adequate watershed and therefore BMP representation. This is, however, only possible for gauged watersheds. There are many watersheds for which there are very little or no monitoring data available, thus the question as to whether it would be possible to extend and/or generalize model parameters obtained through calibration of gauged watersheds to ungauged watersheds within the same region. This study explored the possibility of developing regionalized model parameter sets for use in ungauged watersheds. The study evaluated two regionalization methods: global averaging, and regression-based parameters, on the SWAT model using data from priority watersheds in Arkansas. Resulting parameters were tested and model performance determined on three gauged watersheds. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (NS for stream flow obtained using regression-based parameters (0.53–0.83 compared well with corresponding values obtained through model calibration (0.45–0.90. Model performance obtained using global averaged parameter values was also generally acceptable (0.4 ≤ NS ≤ 0.75. Results from this study indicate that regionalized parameter sets for the SWAT model can be obtained and used for making satisfactory hydrologic response predictions in ungauged watersheds.

  6. Brownian motion model with stochastic parameters for asset prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ching, Soo Huei; Hin, Pooi Ah

    2013-09-01

    The Brownian motion model may not be a completely realistic model for asset prices because in real asset prices the drift μ and volatility σ may change over time. Presently we consider a model in which the parameter x = (μ,σ) is such that its value x (t + Δt) at a short time Δt ahead of the present time t depends on the value of the asset price at time t + Δt as well as the present parameter value x(t) and m-1 other parameter values before time t via a conditional distribution. The Malaysian stock prices are used to compare the performance of the Brownian motion model with fixed parameter with that of the model with stochastic parameter.

  7. Change in the Pathologic Supraspinatus: A Three-Dimensional Model of Fiber Bundle Architecture within Anterior and Posterior Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soo Y. Kim

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Supraspinatus tendon tears are common and lead to changes in the muscle architecture. To date, these changes have not been investigated for the distinct regions and parts of the pathologic supraspinatus. The purpose of this study was to create a novel three-dimensional (3D model of the muscle architecture throughout the supraspinatus and to compare the architecture between muscle regions and parts in relation to tear severity. Twelve cadaveric specimens with varying degrees of tendon tears were used. Three-dimensional coordinates of fiber bundles were collected in situ using serial dissection and digitization. Data were reconstructed and modeled in 3D using Maya. Fiber bundle length (FBL and pennation angle (PA were computed and analyzed. FBL was significantly shorter in specimens with large retracted tears compared to smaller tears, with the deeper fibers being significantly shorter than other parts in the anterior region. PA was significantly greater in specimens with large retracted tears, with the superficial fibers often demonstrating the largest PA. The posterior region was absent in two specimens with extensive tears. Architectural changes associated with tendon tears affect the regions and varying depths of supraspinatus differently. The results provide important insights on residual function of the pathologic muscle, and the 3D model includes detailed data that can be used in future modeling studies.

  8. Posterior urethral injuries associated with pelvic injuries in young adults: computerized finite element model creation and application to improve knowledge and prevention of these lesions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bréaud, J; Baqué, P; Loeffler, J; Colomb, F; Brunet, C; Thollon, L

    2012-05-01

    Young adult males involved in motorcycle accidents are particularly at risk for posterior urethral injury whenever pelvic injury occurs. Posterior urethral injuries remain problematic because their diagnosis may be missed, and during the initial treatment response the urethral injury can be aggravated by urethral catheterization. Few anatomical and clinical tools exist that establish a correlation between injuries and fractures of the pelvic ring and the risk of posterior urethral injury. Based on experience with traffic accident modeling, a computerized finite element model was conceived integrating the specific anatomic structures concerned. This model was extrapolated from a CAT scan of a young adult. The anatomic structures concerned in urethral and pelvic ring trauma (PRT) were isolated, placed in 3D and given biomechanical properties. The model was verified according to available experiments on PRT. To apply the model, we recreated a lateral impact mechanism on the pelvic ring. Stretching between the prostatic and membranous portions of the urethra (before and after visualization of a pelvic fracture) as well as timing of injury was studied. The model's application permitted us to analyze precisely the link between lateral impact trauma of the pelvic ring and lesions of the posterior urethra and to identify an urethra stretching prior to visualization of a pelvic fracture. Utilization of the model with other mechanisms of injury should allow for better comprehension of this associated trauma, improved prevention, iatrogenic aggravation of, and care for, these serious injuries. © Springer-Verlag 2011

  9. Determination of the Corona model parameters with artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmet, Nayir; Bekir, Karlik; Arif, Hashimov

    2005-01-01

    Full text : The aim of this study is to calculate new model parameters taking into account the corona of electrical transmission line wires. For this purpose, a neural network modeling proposed for the corona frequent characteristics modeling. Then this model was compared with the other model developed at the Polytechnic Institute of Saint Petersburg. The results of development of the specified corona model for calculation of its influence on the wave processes in multi-wires line and determination of its parameters are submitted. Results of obtained calculation equations are brought for electrical transmission line with allowance for superficial effect in the ground and wires with reference to developed corona model

  10. Biological parameters for lung cancer in mathematical models of carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacob, P.; Jacob, V.

    2003-01-01

    Applications of the two-step model of carcinogenesis with clonal expansion (TSCE) to lung cancer data are reviewed, including those on atomic bomb survivors from Hiroshima and Nagasaki, British doctors, Colorado Plateau miners, and Chinese tin miners. Different sets of identifiable model parameters are used in the literature. The parameter set which could be determined with the lowest uncertainty consists of the net proliferation rate gamma of intermediate cells, the hazard h 55 at an intermediate age, and the hazard H? at an asymptotically large age. Also, the values of these three parameters obtained in the various studies are more consistent than other identifiable combinations of the biological parameters. Based on representative results for these three parameters, implications for the biological parameters in the TSCE model are derived. (author)

  11. Learning about physical parameters: the importance of model discrepancy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brynjarsdóttir, Jenný; O'Hagan, Anthony

    2014-01-01

    Science-based simulation models are widely used to predict the behavior of complex physical systems. It is also common to use observations of the physical system to solve the inverse problem, that is, to learn about the values of parameters within the model, a process which is often called calibration. The main goal of calibration is usually to improve the predictive performance of the simulator but the values of the parameters in the model may also be of intrinsic scientific interest in their own right. In order to make appropriate use of observations of the physical system it is important to recognize model discrepancy, the difference between reality and the simulator output. We illustrate through a simple example that an analysis that does not account for model discrepancy may lead to biased and over-confident parameter estimates and predictions. The challenge with incorporating model discrepancy in statistical inverse problems is being confounded with calibration parameters, which will only be resolved with meaningful priors. For our simple example, we model the model-discrepancy via a Gaussian process and demonstrate that through accounting for model discrepancy our prediction within the range of data is correct. However, only with realistic priors on the model discrepancy do we uncover the true parameter values. Through theoretical arguments we show that these findings are typical of the general problem of learning about physical parameters and the underlying physical system using science-based mechanistic models. (paper)

  12. Spatio-temporal modeling of nonlinear distributed parameter systems

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Han-Xiong

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this volume is to provide a brief review of the previous work on model reduction and identifi cation of distributed parameter systems (DPS), and develop new spatio-temporal models and their relevant identifi cation approaches. In this book, a systematic overview and classifi cation on the modeling of DPS is presented fi rst, which includes model reduction, parameter estimation and system identifi cation. Next, a class of block-oriented nonlinear systems in traditional lumped parameter systems (LPS) is extended to DPS, which results in the spatio-temporal Wiener and Hammerstein s

  13. Computer modeling of occlusal surfaces of posterior teeth with the CICERO CAD/CAM system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olthoff, L W; Van Der Zel, J M; De Ruiter, W J; Vlaar, S T; Bosman, F

    2000-08-01

    Static and dynamic occlusal interference frequently needs to be corrected by selective grinding of the occlusal surface of conventional cast and ceramic-fused-to-metal restorations. CAD/CAM techniques allow control of the dimensional contours of these restorations. However, parameters responsible for the occlusal form need to be determined. In most articulators, these parameters are set as default values. Which technique is best for minimizing the introduction of occlusal interference in restorations has not been determined. This study investigated differences in crown structure of a crown designed in static occlusion (STA) with designs adapted for dynamic occlusal interferences. Therefore, values from an optoelectronic registration system (String-Condylocomp, KAVO), an occlusal generated path (OGP) technique and default settings (DEF) were used in the CICERO CAD/CAM system. Morphology of CON, DEF, and OGP crowns was compared with that of the STA crown with respect to differences in a buccolingual section and frequency of occlusal distances in an interocclusal range of 1 mm, measured from the occlusal surface of the crown. All crown types fulfilled the esthetic and morphologic criteria for restorations in clinical dentistry. Difference in the morphology of the OGP crown, compared with that of the STA crown, was greater than that for the CON and DEF crowns. These differences were seen especially in the distobuccal part of the occlusal surface; however, the number of occlusal contacts was considered sufficient to stabilize occlusion. Functional occlusion, adapted to dynamic occlusion in a CICERO crown for the first mandibular molar, can be obtained using data acquired with the String-Condylocomp registration system. The OGP technique was preferred to other techniques because of the simplicity of the technique for eliminating potential problems with opposing teeth during motion. However, this is achieved at the cost of fewer points of contact during occlusion than

  14. Parameters Estimation of Geographically Weighted Ordinal Logistic Regression (GWOLR) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuhdi, Shaifudin; Retno Sari Saputro, Dewi; Widyaningsih, Purnami

    2017-06-01

    A regression model is the representation of relationship between independent variable and dependent variable. The dependent variable has categories used in the logistic regression model to calculate odds on. The logistic regression model for dependent variable has levels in the logistics regression model is ordinal. GWOLR model is an ordinal logistic regression model influenced the geographical location of the observation site. Parameters estimation in the model needed to determine the value of a population based on sample. The purpose of this research is to parameters estimation of GWOLR model using R software. Parameter estimation uses the data amount of dengue fever patients in Semarang City. Observation units used are 144 villages in Semarang City. The results of research get GWOLR model locally for each village and to know probability of number dengue fever patient categories.

  15. Universally sloppy parameter sensitivities in systems biology models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan N Gutenkunst

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative computational models play an increasingly important role in modern biology. Such models typically involve many free parameters, and assigning their values is often a substantial obstacle to model development. Directly measuring in vivo biochemical parameters is difficult, and collectively fitting them to other experimental data often yields large parameter uncertainties. Nevertheless, in earlier work we showed in a growth-factor-signaling model that collective fitting could yield well-constrained predictions, even when it left individual parameters very poorly constrained. We also showed that the model had a "sloppy" spectrum of parameter sensitivities, with eigenvalues roughly evenly distributed over many decades. Here we use a collection of models from the literature to test whether such sloppy spectra are common in systems biology. Strikingly, we find that every model we examine has a sloppy spectrum of sensitivities. We also test several consequences of this sloppiness for building predictive models. In particular, sloppiness suggests that collective fits to even large amounts of ideal time-series data will often leave many parameters poorly constrained. Tests over our model collection are consistent with this suggestion. This difficulty with collective fits may seem to argue for direct parameter measurements, but sloppiness also implies that such measurements must be formidably precise and complete to usefully constrain many model predictions. We confirm this implication in our growth-factor-signaling model. Our results suggest that sloppy sensitivity spectra are universal in systems biology models. The prevalence of sloppiness highlights the power of collective fits and suggests that modelers should focus on predictions rather than on parameters.

  16. Universally sloppy parameter sensitivities in systems biology models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutenkunst, Ryan N; Waterfall, Joshua J; Casey, Fergal P; Brown, Kevin S; Myers, Christopher R; Sethna, James P

    2007-10-01

    Quantitative computational models play an increasingly important role in modern biology. Such models typically involve many free parameters, and assigning their values is often a substantial obstacle to model development. Directly measuring in vivo biochemical parameters is difficult, and collectively fitting them to other experimental data often yields large parameter uncertainties. Nevertheless, in earlier work we showed in a growth-factor-signaling model that collective fitting could yield well-constrained predictions, even when it left individual parameters very poorly constrained. We also showed that the model had a "sloppy" spectrum of parameter sensitivities, with eigenvalues roughly evenly distributed over many decades. Here we use a collection of models from the literature to test whether such sloppy spectra are common in systems biology. Strikingly, we find that every model we examine has a sloppy spectrum of sensitivities. We also test several consequences of this sloppiness for building predictive models. In particular, sloppiness suggests that collective fits to even large amounts of ideal time-series data will often leave many parameters poorly constrained. Tests over our model collection are consistent with this suggestion. This difficulty with collective fits may seem to argue for direct parameter measurements, but sloppiness also implies that such measurements must be formidably precise and complete to usefully constrain many model predictions. We confirm this implication in our growth-factor-signaling model. Our results suggest that sloppy sensitivity spectra are universal in systems biology models. The prevalence of sloppiness highlights the power of collective fits and suggests that modelers should focus on predictions rather than on parameters.

  17. Parameter estimation of variable-parameter nonlinear Muskingum model using excel solver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Ling; Zhou, Liwei

    2018-02-01

    Abstract . The Muskingum model is an effective flood routing technology in hydrology and water resources Engineering. With the development of optimization technology, more and more variable-parameter Muskingum models were presented to improve effectiveness of the Muskingum model in recent decades. A variable-parameter nonlinear Muskingum model (NVPNLMM) was proposed in this paper. According to the results of two real and frequently-used case studies by various models, the NVPNLMM could obtain better values of evaluation criteria, which are used to describe the superiority of the estimated outflows and compare the accuracies of flood routing using various models, and the optimal estimated outflows by the NVPNLMM were closer to the observed outflows than the ones by other models.

  18. Modeling and Parameter Estimation of a Small Wind Generation System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos A. Ramírez Gómez

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The modeling and parameter estimation of a small wind generation system is presented in this paper. The system consists of a wind turbine, a permanent magnet synchronous generator, a three phase rectifier, and a direct current load. In order to estimate the parameters wind speed data are registered in a weather station located in the Fraternidad Campus at ITM. Wind speed data were applied to a reference model programed with PSIM software. From that simulation, variables were registered to estimate the parameters. The wind generation system model together with the estimated parameters is an excellent representation of the detailed model, but the estimated model offers a higher flexibility than the programed model in PSIM software.

  19. NONLINEAR PLANT PIECEWISE-CONTINUOUS MODEL MATRIX PARAMETERS ESTIMATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roman L. Leibov

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a nonlinear plant piecewise-continuous model matrix parameters estimation technique using nonlinear model time responses and random search method. One of piecewise-continuous model application areas is defined. The results of proposed approach application for aircraft turbofan engine piecewisecontinuous model formation are presented

  20. Identification of parameters of discrete-continuous models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cekus, Dawid; Warys, Pawel

    2015-01-01

    In the paper, the parameters of a discrete-continuous model have been identified on the basis of experimental investigations and formulation of optimization problem. The discrete-continuous model represents a cantilever stepped Timoshenko beam. The mathematical model has been formulated and solved according to the Lagrange multiplier formalism. Optimization has been based on the genetic algorithm. The presented proceeding’s stages make the identification of any parameters of discrete-continuous systems possible

  1. Identification of parameters of discrete-continuous models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cekus, Dawid, E-mail: cekus@imipkm.pcz.pl; Warys, Pawel, E-mail: warys@imipkm.pcz.pl [Institute of Mechanics and Machine Design Foundations, Czestochowa University of Technology, Dabrowskiego 73, 42-201 Czestochowa (Poland)

    2015-03-10

    In the paper, the parameters of a discrete-continuous model have been identified on the basis of experimental investigations and formulation of optimization problem. The discrete-continuous model represents a cantilever stepped Timoshenko beam. The mathematical model has been formulated and solved according to the Lagrange multiplier formalism. Optimization has been based on the genetic algorithm. The presented proceeding’s stages make the identification of any parameters of discrete-continuous systems possible.

  2. Fast sampling from a Hidden Markov Model posterior for large data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bonnevie, Rasmus; Hansen, Lars Kai

    2014-01-01

    Hidden Markov Models are of interest in a broad set of applications including modern data driven systems involving very large data sets. However, approximate inference methods based on Bayesian averaging are precluded in such applications as each sampling step requires a full sweep over the data...

  3. Parameter estimation in stochastic rainfall-runoff models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Harpa; Madsen, Henrik; Palsson, Olafur Petur

    2006-01-01

    A parameter estimation method for stochastic rainfall-runoff models is presented. The model considered in the paper is a conceptual stochastic model, formulated in continuous-discrete state space form. The model is small and a fully automatic optimization is, therefore, possible for estimating all...... the parameter values are optimal for simulation or prediction. The data originates from Iceland and the model is designed for Icelandic conditions, including a snow routine for mountainous areas. The model demands only two input data series, precipitation and temperature and one output data series...

  4. Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Henrik; Johansen, Søren

    1999-01-01

    Some methods for the evaluation of parameter constancy in vector autoregressive (VAR) models are discussed. Two different ways of re-estimating the VAR model are proposed; one in which all parameters are estimated recursively based upon the likelihood function for the first observations, and anot...... be applied to test the constancy of the long-run parameters in the cointegrated VAR-model. All results are illustrated using a model for the term structure of interest rates on US Treasury securities. ......Some methods for the evaluation of parameter constancy in vector autoregressive (VAR) models are discussed. Two different ways of re-estimating the VAR model are proposed; one in which all parameters are estimated recursively based upon the likelihood function for the first observations......, and another in which the cointegrating relations are estimated recursively from a likelihood function, where the short-run parameters have been concentrated out. We suggest graphical procedures based on recursively estimated eigenvalues to evaluate the constancy of the long-run parameters in the model...

  5. Incorporating model parameter uncertainty into inverse treatment planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lian Jun; Xing Lei

    2004-01-01

    Radiobiological treatment planning depends not only on the accuracy of the models describing the dose-response relation of different tumors and normal tissues but also on the accuracy of tissue specific radiobiological parameters in these models. Whereas the general formalism remains the same, different sets of model parameters lead to different solutions and thus critically determine the final plan. Here we describe an inverse planning formalism with inclusion of model parameter uncertainties. This is made possible by using a statistical analysis-based frameset developed by our group. In this formalism, the uncertainties of model parameters, such as the parameter a that describes tissue-specific effect in the equivalent uniform dose (EUD) model, are expressed by probability density function and are included in the dose optimization process. We found that the final solution strongly depends on distribution functions of the model parameters. Considering that currently available models for computing biological effects of radiation are simplistic, and the clinical data used to derive the models are sparse and of questionable quality, the proposed technique provides us with an effective tool to minimize the effect caused by the uncertainties in a statistical sense. With the incorporation of the uncertainties, the technique has potential for us to maximally utilize the available radiobiology knowledge for better IMRT treatment

  6. Eliciting hyperparameters of prior distributions for the parameters of paired comparison models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nasir Abbas

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE AR-SA In the study of paired comparisons (PC, items may be ranked or issues may be prioritized through subjective assessment of certain judges. PC models are developed and then used to serve the purpose of ranking. The PC models may be studied through classical or Bayesian approach. Bayesian inference is a modern statistical technique used to draw conclusions about the population parameters. Its beauty lies in incorporating prior information about the parameters into the analysis in addition to current information (i.e. data. The prior and current information are formally combined to yield a posterior distribution about the population parameters, which is the work bench of the Bayesian statisticians. However, the problems the Bayesians face correspond to the selection and formal utilization of prior distribution. Once the type of prior distribution is decided to be used, the problem of estimating the parameters of the prior distribution (i.e. elicitation still persists. Different methods are devised to serve the purpose. In this study an attempt is made to use Minimum Chi-square (hence forth MCS for the elicitation purpose. Though it is a classical estimation technique, but is used here for the election purpose. The entire elicitation procedure is illustrated through a numerical data set.

  7. A method for model identification and parameter estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bambach, M; Heinkenschloss, M; Herty, M

    2013-01-01

    We propose and analyze a new method for the identification of a parameter-dependent model that best describes a given system. This problem arises, for example, in the mathematical modeling of material behavior where several competing constitutive equations are available to describe a given material. In this case, the models are differential equations that arise from the different constitutive equations, and the unknown parameters are coefficients in the constitutive equations. One has to determine the best-suited constitutive equations for a given material and application from experiments. We assume that the true model is one of the N possible parameter-dependent models. To identify the correct model and the corresponding parameters, we can perform experiments, where for each experiment we prescribe an input to the system and observe a part of the system state. Our approach consists of two stages. In the first stage, for each pair of models we determine the experiment, i.e. system input and observation, that best differentiates between the two models, and measure the distance between the two models. Then we conduct N(N − 1) or, depending on the approach taken, N(N − 1)/2 experiments and use the result of the experiments as well as the previously computed model distances to determine the true model. We provide sufficient conditions on the model distances and measurement errors which guarantee that our approach identifies the correct model. Given the model, we identify the corresponding model parameters in the second stage. The problem in the second stage is a standard parameter estimation problem and we use a method suitable for the given application. We illustrate our approach on three examples, including one where the models are elliptic partial differential equations with different parameterized right-hand sides and an example where we identify the constitutive equation in a problem from computational viscoplasticity. (paper)

  8. Modelling hydrodynamic parameters to predict flow assisted corrosion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poulson, B.; Greenwell, B.; Chexal, B.; Horowitz, J.

    1992-01-01

    During the past 15 years, flow assisted corrosion has been a worldwide problem in the power generating industry. The phenomena is complex and depends on environment, material composition, and hydrodynamic factors. Recently, modeling of flow assisted corrosion has become a subject of great importance. A key part of this effort is modeling the hydrodynamic aspects of this issue. This paper examines which hydrodynamic parameter should be used to correlate the occurrence and rate of flow assisted corrosion with physically meaningful parameters, discusses ways of measuring the relevant hydrodynamic parameter, and describes how the hydrodynamic data is incorporated into the predictive model

  9. Biomechanical study: resistance comparison of posterior antiglide plate and lateral plate on synthetic bone models simulating Danis-Weber B malleolar fractures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruna Buscharino

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE : The purpose of this study was to compare different positions of plates in lateral malleolar Danis-Weber B fractures on synthetic bone: a lateral plate and a posterior antiglide plate. METHODS : Short oblique fractures of distal fibula at the level of the syndesmosys were simulated with a fibular osteotomy in sixteen synthetic fibula bones (Synbone®. Eight fractures were fixed with lateral plating associated with an independent lag screw, and the other eight were fixed with posterior antiglide plating with a lag screw through the plate. A strain gage was installed at the center of each plate at the osteotomy site. Supination and external rotation forces were applied to each of the two groups at the bend. RESULTS : The lateral position plate group suffered more deformity in response to supination forces compared to the group with the posterior antiglide plate, but this result was not statistically significant. In the tests with external rotation forces, the posterior antiglide plating group had significantly higher resistance (p < 0.05. CONCLUSION : When subjected to external rotation forces, osteosynthesis with posterior antiglide plate models simulating type B fractures of the lateral malleolus of the ankle is more resistant than that of the neutralization plate.

  10. A distributed approach for parameters estimation in System Biology models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosca, E.; Merelli, I.; Alfieri, R.; Milanesi, L.

    2009-01-01

    Due to the lack of experimental measurements, biological variability and experimental errors, the value of many parameters of the systems biology mathematical models is yet unknown or uncertain. A possible computational solution is the parameter estimation, that is the identification of the parameter values that determine the best model fitting respect to experimental data. We have developed an environment to distribute each run of the parameter estimation algorithm on a different computational resource. The key feature of the implementation is a relational database that allows the user to swap the candidate solutions among the working nodes during the computations. The comparison of the distributed implementation with the parallel one showed that the presented approach enables a faster and better parameter estimation of systems biology models.

  11. Optimal parameters for the FFA-Beddoes dynamic stall model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bjoerck, A; Mert, M [FFA, The Aeronautical Research Institute of Sweden, Bromma (Sweden); Madsen, H A [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)

    1999-03-01

    Unsteady aerodynamic effects, like dynamic stall, must be considered in calculation of dynamic forces for wind turbines. Models incorporated in aero-elastic programs are of semi-empirical nature. Resulting aerodynamic forces therefore depend on values used for the semi-empiricial parameters. In this paper a study of finding appropriate parameters to use with the Beddoes-Leishman model is discussed. Minimisation of the `tracking error` between results from 2D wind tunnel tests and simulation with the model is used to find optimum values for the parameters. The resulting optimum parameters show a large variation from case to case. Using these different sets of optimum parameters in the calculation of blade vibrations, give rise to quite different predictions of aerodynamic damping which is discussed. (au)

  12. Numerical fatigue 3D-FE modeling of indirect composite-restored posterior teeth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ausiello, Pietro; Franciosa, Pasquale; Martorelli, Massimo; Watts, David C

    2011-05-01

    In restored teeth, stresses at the tooth-restoration interface during masticatory processes may fracture the teeth or the restoration and cracks may grow and propagate. The aim was to apply numerical methodologies to simulate the behavior of a restored tooth and to evaluate fatigue lifetimes before crack failure. Using a CAD-FEM procedure and fatigue mechanic laws, the fatigue damage of a restored molar was numerically estimated. Tessellated surfaces of enamel and dentin were extracted by applying segmentation and classification algorithms, to sets of 2D image data. A user-friendly GUI, which enables selection and visualization of 3D tessellated surfaces, was developed in a MatLab(®) environment. The tooth-boundary surfaces of enamel and dentin were then created by sweeping operations through cross-sections. A class II MOD cavity preparation was then added into the 3D model and tetrahedral mesh elements were generated. Fatigue simulation was performed by combining a preliminary static FEA simulation with classical fatigue mechanical laws. Regions with the shortest fatigue-life were located around the fillets of the class II MOD cavity, where the static stress was highest. The described method can be successfully adopted to generate detailed 3D-FE models of molar teeth, with different cavities and restorative materials. This method could be quickly implemented for other dental or biomechanical applications. Copyright © 2010 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Online State Space Model Parameter Estimation in Synchronous Machines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Gallehdari

    2014-06-01

    The suggested approach is evaluated for a sample synchronous machine model. Estimated parameters are tested for different inputs at different operating conditions. The effect of noise is also considered in this study. Simulation results show that the proposed approach provides good accuracy for parameter estimation.

  14. Assessing Goodness of Fit in Item Response Theory with Nonparametric Models: A Comparison of Posterior Probabilities and Kernel-Smoothing Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sueiro, Manuel J.; Abad, Francisco J.

    2011-01-01

    The distance between nonparametric and parametric item characteristic curves has been proposed as an index of goodness of fit in item response theory in the form of a root integrated squared error index. This article proposes to use the posterior distribution of the latent trait as the nonparametric model and compares the performance of an index…

  15. Complexity, parameter sensitivity and parameter transferability in the modelling of floodplain inundation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, P. D.; Neal, J. C.; Fewtrell, T. J.

    2012-12-01

    In this we paper we consider two related questions. First, we address the issue of how much physical complexity is necessary in a model in order to simulate floodplain inundation to within validation data error. This is achieved through development of a single code/multiple physics hydraulic model (LISFLOOD-FP) where different degrees of complexity can be switched on or off. Different configurations of this code are applied to four benchmark test cases, and compared to the results of a number of industry standard models. Second we address the issue of how parameter sensitivity and transferability change with increasing complexity using numerical experiments with models of different physical and geometric intricacy. Hydraulic models are a good example system with which to address such generic modelling questions as: (1) they have a strong physical basis; (2) there is only one set of equations to solve; (3) they require only topography and boundary conditions as input data; and (4) they typically require only a single free parameter, namely boundary friction. In terms of complexity required we show that for the problem of sub-critical floodplain inundation a number of codes of different dimensionality and resolution can be found to fit uncertain model validation data equally well, and that in this situation Occam's razor emerges as a useful logic to guide model selection. We find also find that model skill usually improves more rapidly with increases in model spatial resolution than increases in physical complexity, and that standard approaches to testing hydraulic models against laboratory data or analytical solutions may fail to identify this important fact. Lastly, we find that in benchmark testing studies significant differences can exist between codes with identical numerical solution techniques as a result of auxiliary choices regarding the specifics of model implementation that are frequently unreported by code developers. As a consequence, making sound

  16. Retrospective forecast of ETAS model with daily parameters estimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falcone, Giuseppe; Murru, Maura; Console, Rodolfo; Marzocchi, Warner; Zhuang, Jiancang

    2016-04-01

    We present a retrospective ETAS (Epidemic Type of Aftershock Sequence) model based on the daily updating of free parameters during the background, the learning and the test phase of a seismic sequence. The idea was born after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The CSEP (Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability) Center in Japan provided an appropriate testing benchmark for the five 1-day submitted models. Of all the models, only one was able to successfully predict the number of events that really happened. This result was verified using both the real time and the revised catalogs. The main cause of the failure was in the underestimation of the forecasted events, due to model parameters maintained fixed during the test. Moreover, the absence in the learning catalog of an event similar to the magnitude of the mainshock (M9.0), which drastically changed the seismicity in the area, made the learning parameters not suitable to describe the real seismicity. As an example of this methodological development we show the evolution of the model parameters during the last two strong seismic sequences in Italy: the 2009 L'Aquila and the 2012 Reggio Emilia episodes. The achievement of the model with daily updated parameters is compared with that of same model where the parameters remain fixed during the test time.

  17. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaylie Rasmuson; Kurt Rautenstrauch

    2003-06-20

    This analysis is one of nine technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. It documents input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCF). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in the biosphere Technical Work Plan (TWP, BSC 2003a). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development and therefore not available at the time this document is issued. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003b) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters. This analysis report, ANL-MGR-MD-000006, ''Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. This report defines and justifies values for twelve parameters required in the biosphere model. These parameters are related to use of contaminated groundwater to grow crops. The parameter values recommended in this report are used in the soil, plant, and carbon-14 submodels of the ERMYN.

  18. Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkel, Brian J.

    2011-01-01

    We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of population growth, specifically logistic growth models and two-species competition models. We discuss student-evolved strategies and offer "Mathematica" code for a gradient search approach. We use historical (1930s) data from microbial studies of the Russian biologist,…

  19. Luminescence model with quantum impact parameter for low energy ions

    CERN Document Server

    Cruz-Galindo, H S; Martínez-Davalos, A; Belmont-Moreno, E; Galindo, S

    2002-01-01

    We have modified an analytical model of induced light production by energetic ions interacting in scintillating materials. The original model is based on the distribution of energy deposited by secondary electrons produced along the ion's track. The range of scattered electrons, and thus the energy distribution, depends on a classical impact parameter between the electron and the ion's track. The only adjustable parameter of the model is the quenching density rho sub q. The modification here presented, consists in proposing a quantum impact parameter that leads to a better fit of the model to the experimental data at low incident ion energies. The light output response of CsI(Tl) detectors to low energy ions (<3 MeV/A) is fitted with the modified model and comparison is made to the original model.

  20. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    K. Rasmuson; K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-01-01

    This analysis is one of 10 technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) (i.e., the biosphere model). It documents development of agricultural and environmental input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters

  1. Determining extreme parameter correlation in ground water models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hill, Mary Cole; Østerby, Ole

    2003-01-01

    can go undetected even by experienced modelers. Extreme parameter correlation can be detected using parameter correlation coefficients, but their utility depends on the presence of sufficient, but not excessive, numerical imprecision of the sensitivities, such as round-off error. This work...... investigates the information that can be obtained from parameter correlation coefficients in the presence of different levels of numerical imprecision, and compares it to the information provided by an alternative method called the singular value decomposition (SVD). Results suggest that (1) calculated...... correlation coefficients with absolute values that round to 1.00 were good indicators of extreme parameter correlation, but smaller values were not necessarily good indicators of lack of correlation and resulting unique parameter estimates; (2) the SVD may be more difficult to interpret than parameter...

  2. Uncertainty of Modal Parameters Estimated by ARMA Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jacob Laigaard; Brincker, Rune; Rytter, Anders

    1990-01-01

    In this paper the uncertainties of identified modal parameters such as eidenfrequencies and damping ratios are assed. From the measured response of dynamic excited structures the modal parameters may be identified and provide important structural knowledge. However the uncertainty of the parameters...... by simulation study of a lightly damped single degree of freedom system. Identification by ARMA models has been choosen as system identification method. It is concluded that both the sampling interval and number of sampled points may play a significant role with respect to the statistical errors. Furthermore......, it is shown that the model errors may also contribute significantly to the uncertainty....

  3. SPOTting Model Parameters Using a Ready-Made Python Package.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Houska

    Full Text Available The choice for specific parameter estimation methods is often more dependent on its availability than its performance. We developed SPOTPY (Statistical Parameter Optimization Tool, an open source python package containing a comprehensive set of methods typically used to calibrate, analyze and optimize parameters for a wide range of ecological models. SPOTPY currently contains eight widely used algorithms, 11 objective functions, and can sample from eight parameter distributions. SPOTPY has a model-independent structure and can be run in parallel from the workstation to large computation clusters using the Message Passing Interface (MPI. We tested SPOTPY in five different case studies to parameterize the Rosenbrock, Griewank and Ackley functions, a one-dimensional physically based soil moisture routine, where we searched for parameters of the van Genuchten-Mualem function and a calibration of a biogeochemistry model with different objective functions. The case studies reveal that the implemented SPOTPY methods can be used for any model with just a minimal amount of code for maximal power of parameter optimization. They further show the benefit of having one package at hand that includes number of well performing parameter search methods, since not every case study can be solved sufficiently with every algorithm or every objective function.

  4. Parameter resolution in two models for cell survival after radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Di Cera, E.; Andreasi Bassi, F.; Arcovito, G.

    1989-01-01

    The resolvability of model parameters for the linear-quadratic and the repair-misrepair models for cell survival after radiation has been studied by Monte Carlo simulations as a function of the number of experimental data points collected in a given dose range and the experimental error. Statistical analysis of the results reveals the range of experimental conditions under which the model parameters can be resolved with sufficient accuracy, and points out some differences in the operational aspects of the two models. (orig.)

  5. Simultaneous inference for model averaging of derived parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Signe Marie; Ritz, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Model averaging is a useful approach for capturing uncertainty due to model selection. Currently, this uncertainty is often quantified by means of approximations that do not easily extend to simultaneous inference. Moreover, in practice there is a need for both model averaging and simultaneous...... inference for derived parameters calculated in an after-fitting step. We propose a method for obtaining asymptotically correct standard errors for one or several model-averaged estimates of derived parameters and for obtaining simultaneous confidence intervals that asymptotically control the family...

  6. Updating parameters of the chicken processing line model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kurowicka, Dorota; Nauta, Maarten; Jozwiak, Katarzyna

    2010-01-01

    A mathematical model of chicken processing that quantitatively describes the transmission of Campylobacter on chicken carcasses from slaughter to chicken meat product has been developed in Nauta et al. (2005). This model was quantified with expert judgment. Recent availability of data allows...... updating parameters of the model to better describe processes observed in slaughterhouses. We propose Bayesian updating as a suitable technique to update expert judgment with microbiological data. Berrang and Dickens’s data are used to demonstrate performance of this method in updating parameters...... of the chicken processing line model....

  7. Lumped-parameter Model of a Bucket Foundation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars; Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, Morten

    2009-01-01

    efficient model that can be applied in aero-elastic codes for fast evaluation of the dynamic structural response of wind turbines. The target solutions, utilised for calibration of the lumped-parameter models, are obtained by a coupled finite-element/boundaryelement scheme in the frequency domain......, and the quality of the models are tested in the time and frequency domains. It is found that precise results are achieved by lumped-parameter models with two to four internal degrees of freedom per displacement or rotation of the foundation. Further, coupling between the horizontal sliding and rocking cannot...

  8. Lumped-Parameter Models for Windturbine Footings on Layered Ground

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars

    The design of modern wind turbines is typically based on lifetime analyses using aeroelastic codes. In this regard, the impedance of the foundations must be described accurately without increasing the overall size of the computationalmodel significantly. This may be obtained by the fitting...... of a lumped-parameter model to the results of a rigorous model or experimental results. In this paper, guidelines are given for the formulation of such lumped-parameter models and examples are given in which the models are utilised for the analysis of a wind turbine supported by a surface footing on a layered...

  9. MODELING OF FUEL SPRAY CHARACTERISTICS AND DIESEL COMBUSTION CHAMBER PARAMETERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. M. Kukharonak

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The computer model for coordination of fuel spray characteristics with diesel combustion chamber parameters has been created in the paper.  The model allows to observe fuel sprays  develоpment in diesel cylinder at any moment of injection, to calculate characteristics of fuel sprays with due account of a shape and dimensions of a combustion chamber, timely to change fuel injection characteristics and supercharging parameters, shape and dimensions of a combustion chamber. Moreover the computer model permits to determine parameters of holes in an injector nozzle that provides the required fuel sprays characteristics at the stage of designing a diesel engine. Combustion chamber parameters for 4ЧН11/12.5 diesel engine have been determined in the paper.

  10. Seasonal and spatial variation in broadleaf forest model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groenendijk, M.; van der Molen, M. K.; Dolman, A. J.

    2009-04-01

    Process based, coupled ecosystem carbon, energy and water cycle models are used with the ultimate goal to project the effect of future climate change on the terrestrial carbon cycle. A typical dilemma in such exercises is how much detail the model must be given to describe the observations reasonably realistic while also be general. We use a simple vegetation model (5PM) with five model parameters to study the variability of the parameters. These parameters are derived from the observed carbon and water fluxes from the FLUXNET database. For 15 broadleaf forests the model parameters were derived for different time resolutions. It appears that in general for all forests, the correlation coefficient between observed and simulated carbon and water fluxes improves with a higher parameter time resolution. The quality of the simulations is thus always better when a higher time resolution is used. These results show that annual parameters are not capable of properly describing weather effects on ecosystem fluxes, and that two day time resolution yields the best results. A first indication of the climate constraints can be found by the seasonal variation of the covariance between Jm, which describes the maximum electron transport for photosynthesis, and climate variables. A general seasonality we found is that during winter the covariance with all climate variables is zero. Jm increases rapidly after initial spring warming, resulting in a large covariance with air temperature and global radiation. During summer Jm is less variable, but co-varies negatively with air temperature and vapour pressure deficit and positively with soil water content. A temperature response appears during spring and autumn for broadleaf forests. This shows that an annual model parameter cannot be representative for the entire year. And relations with mean annual temperature are not possible. During summer the photosynthesis parameters are constrained by water availability, soil water content and

  11. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Wasiolek

    2004-09-10

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment for the license application (TSPA-LA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA-LA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) (TWP). This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA). This report is one of the five reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model and the mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed description of the model input parameters. The output of this report is used as direct input in the ''Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' and in the ''Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios, respectively. The purpose of this analysis was to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or in volcanic ash). The analysis

  12. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M. Wasiolek

    2004-01-01

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment for the license application (TSPA-LA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA-LA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) (TWP). This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA). This report is one of the five reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model and the mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed description of the model input parameters. The output of this report is used as direct input in the ''Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' and in the ''Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios, respectively. The purpose of this analysis was to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or in volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573])

  13. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-09-10

    This analysis is one of 10 reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception.

  14. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-01-01

    This analysis is one of 10 reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception

  15. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wasiolek, M. A.

    2003-01-01

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2003 [163602]). Some documents in Figure 1-1 may be under development and not available when this report is issued. This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA), but access to the listed documents is not required to understand the contents of this report. This report is one of the reports that develops input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes the conceptual model, the mathematical model, and the input parameters. The purpose of this analysis is to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2003 [163602]). This analysis develops values of parameters associated with many features, events, and processes (FEPs) applicable to the reference biosphere (DTN: M00303SEPFEPS2.000 [162452]), which are addressed in the biosphere model (BSC 2003 [160699]). The treatment of these FEPs is described in BSC (2003 [160699], Section 6.2). Parameter values

  16. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-06-27

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2003 [163602]). Some documents in Figure 1-1 may be under development and not available when this report is issued. This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA), but access to the listed documents is not required to understand the contents of this report. This report is one of the reports that develops input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes the conceptual model, the mathematical model, and the input parameters. The purpose of this analysis is to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2003 [163602]). This analysis develops values of parameters associated with many features, events, and processes (FEPs) applicable to the reference biosphere (DTN: M00303SEPFEPS2.000 [162452]), which are addressed in the biosphere model (BSC 2003 [160699]). The treatment of these FEPs is described in BSC (2003 [160699

  17. Reflector modelization for neutronic diffusion and parameters identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Argaud, J.P.

    1993-04-01

    Physical parameters of neutronic diffusion equations can be adjusted to decrease calculations-measurements errors. The reflector being always difficult to modelize, we choose to elaborate a new reflector model and to use the parameters of this model as adjustment coefficients in the identification procedure. Using theoretical results, and also the physical behaviour of neutronic flux solutions, the reflector model consists then in its replacement by boundary conditions for the diffusion equations on the core only. This theoretical result of non-local operator relations leads then to some discrete approximations by taking into account the multiscaled behaviour, on the core-reflector interface, of neutronic diffusion solutions. The resulting model of this approach is then compared with previous reflector modelizations, and first results indicate that this new model gives the same representation of reflector for the core than previous. (author). 12 refs

  18. Regionalising Parameters of a Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    IHACRES, a lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model, was calibrated to six catchments ranging in size from 49km2 to 600 km2 within the upper Tana River basin to obtain a set of model parameters that characterise the hydrological behaviour within the region. Physical catchment attributes indexing topography, soil and ...

  19. Constraint on Parameters of Inverse Compton Scattering Model for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    B2319+60, two parameters of inverse Compton scattering model, the initial Lorentz factor and the factor of energy loss of relativistic particles are constrained. Key words. Pulsar—inverse Compton scattering—emission mechanism. 1. Introduction. Among various kinds of models for pulsar radio emission, the inverse ...

  20. Geometry parameters for musculoskeletal modelling of the shoulder system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Helm, F C; Veeger, DirkJan (H. E. J.); Pronk, G M; Van der Woude, L H; Rozendal, R H

    A dynamical finite-element model of the shoulder mechanism consisting of thorax, clavicula, scapula and humerus is outlined. The parameters needed for the model are obtained in a cadaver experiment consisting of both shoulders of seven cadavers. In this paper, in particular, the derivation of

  1. Rain storm models and the relationship between their parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stol, P.T.

    1977-01-01

    Rainfall interstation correlation functions can be obtained with the aid of analytic rainfall or storm models. Since alternative storm models have different mathematical formulas, comparison should be based on equallity of parameters like storm diameter, mean rainfall amount, storm maximum or total

  2. Lumped-parameters equivalent circuit for condenser microphones modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esteves, Josué; Rufer, Libor; Ekeom, Didace; Basrour, Skandar

    2017-10-01

    This work presents a lumped parameters equivalent model of condenser microphone based on analogies between acoustic, mechanical, fluidic, and electrical domains. Parameters of the model were determined mainly through analytical relations and/or finite element method (FEM) simulations. Special attention was paid to the air gap modeling and to the use of proper boundary condition. Corresponding lumped-parameters were obtained as results of FEM simulations. Because of its simplicity, the model allows a fast simulation and is readily usable for microphone design. This work shows the validation of the equivalent circuit on three real cases of capacitive microphones, including both traditional and Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems structures. In all cases, it has been demonstrated that the sensitivity and other related data obtained from the equivalent circuit are in very good agreement with available measurement data.

  3. A software for parameter estimation in dynamic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Yuceer

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available A common problem in dynamic systems is to determine parameters in an equation used to represent experimental data. The goal is to determine the values of model parameters that provide the best fit to measured data, generally based on some type of least squares or maximum likelihood criterion. In the most general case, this requires the solution of a nonlinear and frequently non-convex optimization problem. Some of the available software lack in generality, while others do not provide ease of use. A user-interactive parameter estimation software was needed for identifying kinetic parameters. In this work we developed an integration based optimization approach to provide a solution to such problems. For easy implementation of the technique, a parameter estimation software (PARES has been developed in MATLAB environment. When tested with extensive example problems from literature, the suggested approach is proven to provide good agreement between predicted and observed data within relatively less computing time and iterations.

  4. Determination of appropriate models and parameters for premixing calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Ik-Kyu; Kim, Jong-Hwan; Min, Beong-Tae; Hong, Seong-Wan

    2008-03-15

    The purpose of the present work is to use experiments that have been performed at Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe during about the last ten years for determining the most appropriate models and parameters for premixing calculations. The results of a QUEOS experiment are used to fix the parameters concerning heat transfer. The QUEOS experiments are especially suited for this purpose as they have been performed with small hot solid spheres. Therefore the area of heat exchange is known. With the heat transfer parameters fixed in this way, a PREMIX experiment is recalculated. These experiments have been performed with molten alumina (Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}) as a simulant of corium. Its initial temperature is 2600 K. With these experiments the models and parameters for jet and drop break-up are tested.

  5. Parameter identification in a nonlinear nuclear reactor model using quasilinearization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barreto, J.M.; Martins Neto, A.F.; Tanomaru, N.

    1980-09-01

    Parameter identification in a nonlinear, lumped parameter, nuclear reactor model is carried out using discrete output power measurements during the transient caused by an external reactivity change. In order to minimize the difference between the model and the reactor power responses, the parameter promt neutron generation time and a parameter in fuel temperature reactivity coefficient equation are adjusted using quasilinearization. The influences of the external reactivity disturbance, the number and frequency of measurements and the measurement noise level on the method accuracy and rate of convergence are analysed through simulation. Procedures for the design of the identification experiments are suggested. The method proved to be very effective for low level noise measurements. (Author) [pt

  6. Determination of appropriate models and parameters for premixing calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Ik-Kyu; Kim, Jong-Hwan; Min, Beong-Tae; Hong, Seong-Wan

    2008-03-01

    The purpose of the present work is to use experiments that have been performed at Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe during about the last ten years for determining the most appropriate models and parameters for premixing calculations. The results of a QUEOS experiment are used to fix the parameters concerning heat transfer. The QUEOS experiments are especially suited for this purpose as they have been performed with small hot solid spheres. Therefore the area of heat exchange is known. With the heat transfer parameters fixed in this way, a PREMIX experiment is recalculated. These experiments have been performed with molten alumina (Al 2 O 3 ) as a simulant of corium. Its initial temperature is 2600 K. With these experiments the models and parameters for jet and drop break-up are tested

  7. Condition Parameter Modeling for Anomaly Detection in Wind Turbines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yonglong Yan

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Data collected from the supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA system, used widely in wind farms to obtain operational and condition information about wind turbines (WTs, is of important significance for anomaly detection in wind turbines. The paper presents a novel model for wind turbine anomaly detection mainly based on SCADA data and a back-propagation neural network (BPNN for automatic selection of the condition parameters. The SCADA data sets are determined through analysis of the cumulative probability distribution of wind speed and the relationship between output power and wind speed. The automatic BPNN-based parameter selection is for reduction of redundant parameters for anomaly detection in wind turbines. Through investigation of cases of WT faults, the validity of the automatic parameter selection-based model for WT anomaly detection is verified.

  8. Ground level enhancement (GLE) energy spectrum parameters model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, G.; Wu, S.

    2017-12-01

    We study the ground level enhancement (GLE) events in solar cycle 23 with the four energy spectra parameters, the normalization parameter C, low-energy power-law slope γ 1, high-energy power-law slope γ 2, and break energy E0, obtained by Mewaldt et al. 2012 who fit the observations to the double power-law equation. we divide the GLEs into two groups, one with strong acceleration by interplanetary (IP) shocks and another one without strong acceleration according to the condition of solar eruptions. We next fit the four parameters with solar event conditions to get models of the parameters for the two groups of GLEs separately. So that we would establish a model of energy spectrum for GLEs for the future space weather prediction.

  9. Soil-related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A. J. Smith

    2003-01-01

    This analysis is one of the technical reports containing documentation of the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN biosphere model is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2003 [163602]). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development at the time this report is issued and therefore not available. This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this report. This report, ''Soil Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five analysis reports that develop input parameters for use in the ERMYN model. This report is the source documentation for the six biosphere parameters identified in Table 1-1. ''The Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. The purpose of this analysis was to develop the biosphere model parameters needed to evaluate doses from pathways associated with the accumulation and depletion of radionuclides in the soil. These parameters support the calculation of radionuclide concentrations in soil from on-going irrigation and ash

  10. Parameters Optimization and Application to Glutamate Fermentation Model Using SVM

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Xiangsheng; Pan, Feng

    2015-01-01

    Aimed at the parameters optimization in support vector machine (SVM) for glutamate fermentation modelling, a new method is developed. It optimizes the SVM parameters via an improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO) algorithm which has better global searching ability. The algorithm includes detecting and handling the local convergence and exhibits strong ability to avoid being trapped in local minima. The material step of the method was shown. Simulation experiments demonstrate the effective...

  11. Parameters Optimization and Application to Glutamate Fermentation Model Using SVM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiangsheng Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Aimed at the parameters optimization in support vector machine (SVM for glutamate fermentation modelling, a new method is developed. It optimizes the SVM parameters via an improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO algorithm which has better global searching ability. The algorithm includes detecting and handling the local convergence and exhibits strong ability to avoid being trapped in local minima. The material step of the method was shown. Simulation experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

  12. Quantification of dynamic posterior translation in modified bilateral Alexander views and correlation with clinical and radiological parameters in patients with acute acromioclavicular joint instability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minkus, Marvin; Hann, Carmen; Scheibel, Markus; Kraus, Natascha

    2017-06-01

    Classification of AC-joint instability is based on radiologic evaluation of anteroposterior (a.p.) stress views of both shoulders, neglecting the horizontal component of instability. Recent studies have proposed an association of dynamic posterior translation (DPT) and inferior clinical results. The purpose of this study was to quantify DPT in modified Alexander views and correlate it with other radiological and clinical data. Thirty-two patients (4 f, 28 m, mean age 34.1) with acute AC-joint dislocation (16 = RW III, 16 = RW V) underwent radiological examination including bilateral a.p. stress views with measurement of the coracoclavicular distance (CCD) and bilateral modified Alexander views with different approaches to quantify DPT (overlapping area OA AC , overlapping length OL AC ). In addition, the Constant Score, Subjective Shoulder Value, Taft Score (TF), and the Acromioclavicular Joint Instability Score (ACJI) were obtained. In Rockwood (RW) type III injuries, a mean CCD of 15.8 (9.8-22.8) mm, OA AC of 50.9 (0-216.6) mm 2 , and OL AC of 6.5 (-4.7-17.9) mm were found. RW V patients showed a CCD of 23.1 (13.7-32.0) mm; OA AC 7.0 (0-92.3) mm 2 ; and OL AC -4.8 (-19.6-9.8) mm. Particularly in RW III the CCD, OA AC and OL AC revealed significant correlation with the ACJI (r = -0.64/r = 0.72/r = 0.68, p  0.05 and OL AC with TF: r = -0.45, p > 0.05). Measuring the OL AC is a convenient way for quantifying DPT in modified Alexander views. It showed significant correlation with clinical scores, indicating the relevance of DPT in patients with AC-joint injury.

  13. A Bayesian framework for parameter estimation in dynamical models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flávio Codeço Coelho

    Full Text Available Mathematical models in biology are powerful tools for the study and exploration of complex dynamics. Nevertheless, bringing theoretical results to an agreement with experimental observations involves acknowledging a great deal of uncertainty intrinsic to our theoretical representation of a real system. Proper handling of such uncertainties is key to the successful usage of models to predict experimental or field observations. This problem has been addressed over the years by many tools for model calibration and parameter estimation. In this article we present a general framework for uncertainty analysis and parameter estimation that is designed to handle uncertainties associated with the modeling of dynamic biological systems while remaining agnostic as to the type of model used. We apply the framework to fit an SIR-like influenza transmission model to 7 years of incidence data in three European countries: Belgium, the Netherlands and Portugal.

  14. A lumped parameter, low dimension model of heat exchanger

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanoh, Hideaki; Furushoo, Junji; Masubuchi, Masami

    1980-01-01

    This paper reports on the results of investigation of the distributed parameter model, the difference model, and the model of the method of weighted residuals for heat exchangers. By the method of weighted residuals (MWR), the opposite flow heat exchanger system is approximated by low dimension, lumped parameter model. By assuming constant specific heat, constant density, the same form of tube cross-section, the same form of the surface of heat exchange, uniform flow velocity, the linear relation of heat transfer to flow velocity, liquid heat carrier, and the thermal insulation of liquid from outside, fundamental equations are obtained. The experimental apparatus was made of acrylic resin. The response of the temperature at the exit of first liquid to the variation of the flow rate of second liquid was measured and compared with the models. The MWR model shows good approximation for the low frequency region, and as the number of division increases, good approximation spreads to higher frequency region. (Kato, T.)

  15. The biomechanical effect of transverse connectors use in a pre- and postlaminectomy model of the posterior cervical spine: an in vitro cadaveric study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majid, Kamran; Gudipally, Manasa; Hussain, Mir; Moldavsky, Mark; Khalil, Saif

    2011-12-15

    An in vitro biomechanical study investigating the effect of transverse connectors on posterior cervical stabilization system in a laminectomy model. To evaluate the optimal design, number, and location of the transverse connectors in stabilizing long segment posterior instrumentation in the cervical spine. In the cervical spine, lateral mass screw (LMS) fixation is used for providing stability after decompression. Transverse connectors have been used to augment segmental posterior instrumentation. However, in the cervical region the optimal design, number, and the location of transverse connectors is not known. Seven fresh human cervicothoracic cadaveric spines (C2-T1) were tested by applying ±1.5 Nm moments in flexion (F), extension (E), lateral bending (LB), and axial rotation (AR). After testing the intact condition, LMS/rods were placed and then were tested with two different transverse connectors (top-loading connector [TL] and the head-to-head [HH] connector) in multiple levels, pre- and postlaminectomy (PL). LMS significantly reduced segmental motion by 77.2% in F, 75.6% in E, 86.6% in LB, and 86.1% in AR prelaminectomy and by 75.4% in F, 76% in E, 80.6% in LB, and 76.4% in AR postlaminectomy compared to intact (P transverse connectors is significant in AR, when using two connectors at the proximal and distal ends, compared to one connector. In a clinical setting, this data may guide surgeons on transverse connector configurations to consider during posterior cervical instrumentation.

  16. Reservoir theory, groundwater transit time distributions, and lumped parameter models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Etcheverry, D.; Perrochet, P.

    1999-01-01

    The relation between groundwater residence times and transit times is given by the reservoir theory. It allows to calculate theoretical transit time distributions in a deterministic way, analytically, or on numerical models. Two analytical solutions validates the piston flow and the exponential model for simple conceptual flow systems. A numerical solution of a hypothetical regional groundwater flow shows that lumped parameter models could be applied in some cases to large-scale, heterogeneous aquifers. (author)

  17. Transformation of Bayesian posterior distribution into a basic analytical distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jordan Cizelj, R.; Vrbanic, I.

    2002-01-01

    Bayesian estimation is well-known approach that is widely used in Probabilistic Safety Analyses for the estimation of input model reliability parameters, such as component failure rates or probabilities of failure upon demand. In this approach, a prior distribution, which contains some generic knowledge about a parameter is combined with likelihood function, which contains plant-specific data about the parameter. Depending on the type of prior distribution, the resulting posterior distribution can be estimated numerically or analytically. In many instances only a numerical Bayesian integration can be performed. In such a case the posterior is provided in the form of tabular discrete distribution. On the other hand, it is much more convenient to have a parameter's uncertainty distribution that is to be input into a PSA model to be provided in the form of some basic analytical probability distribution, such as lognormal, gamma or beta distribution. One reason is that this enables much more convenient propagation of parameters' uncertainties through the model up to the so-called top events, such as plant system unavailability or core damage frequency. Additionally, software tools used to run PSA models often require that parameter's uncertainty distribution is defined in the form of one among the several allowed basic types of distributions. In such a case the posterior distribution that came as a product of Bayesian estimation needs to be transformed into an appropriate basic analytical form. In this paper, some approaches on transformation of posterior distribution to a basic probability distribution are proposed and discussed. They are illustrated by an example from NPP Krsko PSA model.(author)

  18. SPOTting model parameters using a ready-made Python package

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houska, Tobias; Kraft, Philipp; Breuer, Lutz

    2015-04-01

    The selection and parameterization of reliable process descriptions in ecological modelling is driven by several uncertainties. The procedure is highly dependent on various criteria, like the used algorithm, the likelihood function selected and the definition of the prior parameter distributions. A wide variety of tools have been developed in the past decades to optimize parameters. Some of the tools are closed source. Due to this, the choice for a specific parameter estimation method is sometimes more dependent on its availability than the performance. A toolbox with a large set of methods can support users in deciding about the most suitable method. Further, it enables to test and compare different methods. We developed the SPOT (Statistical Parameter Optimization Tool), an open source python package containing a comprehensive set of modules, to analyze and optimize parameters of (environmental) models. SPOT comes along with a selected set of algorithms for parameter optimization and uncertainty analyses (Monte Carlo, MC; Latin Hypercube Sampling, LHS; Maximum Likelihood, MLE; Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC; Scuffled Complex Evolution, SCE-UA; Differential Evolution Markov Chain, DE-MCZ), together with several likelihood functions (Bias, (log-) Nash-Sutcliff model efficiency, Correlation Coefficient, Coefficient of Determination, Covariance, (Decomposed-, Relative-, Root-) Mean Squared Error, Mean Absolute Error, Agreement Index) and prior distributions (Binomial, Chi-Square, Dirichlet, Exponential, Laplace, (log-, multivariate-) Normal, Pareto, Poisson, Cauchy, Uniform, Weibull) to sample from. The model-independent structure makes it suitable to analyze a wide range of applications. We apply all algorithms of the SPOT package in three different case studies. Firstly, we investigate the response of the Rosenbrock function, where the MLE algorithm shows its strengths. Secondly, we study the Griewank function, which has a challenging response surface for

  19. Modelling of intermittent microwave convective drying: parameter sensitivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Zhijun

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The reliability of the predictions of a mathematical model is a prerequisite to its utilization. A multiphase porous media model of intermittent microwave convective drying is developed based on the literature. The model considers the liquid water, gas and solid matrix inside of food. The model is simulated by COMSOL software. Its sensitivity parameter is analysed by changing the parameter values by ±20%, with the exception of several parameters. The sensitivity analysis of the process of the microwave power level shows that each parameter: ambient temperature, effective gas diffusivity, and evaporation rate constant, has significant effects on the process. However, the surface mass, heat transfer coefficient, relative and intrinsic permeability of the gas, and capillary diffusivity of water do not have a considerable effect. The evaporation rate constant has minimal parameter sensitivity with a ±20% value change, until it is changed 10-fold. In all results, the temperature and vapour pressure curves show the same trends as the moisture content curve. However, the water saturation at the medium surface and in the centre show different results. Vapour transfer is the major mass transfer phenomenon that affects the drying process.

  20. Synchronous Generator Model Parameter Estimation Based on Noisy Dynamic Waveforms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berhausen, Sebastian; Paszek, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, there have occurred system failures in many power systems all over the world. They have resulted in a lack of power supply to a large number of recipients. To minimize the risk of occurrence of power failures, it is necessary to perform multivariate investigations, including simulations, of power system operating conditions. To conduct reliable simulations, the current base of parameters of the models of generating units, containing the models of synchronous generators, is necessary. In the paper, there is presented a method for parameter estimation of a synchronous generator nonlinear model based on the analysis of selected transient waveforms caused by introducing a disturbance (in the form of a pseudorandom signal) in the generator voltage regulation channel. The parameter estimation was performed by minimizing the objective function defined as a mean square error for deviations between the measurement waveforms and the waveforms calculated based on the generator mathematical model. A hybrid algorithm was used for the minimization of the objective function. In the paper, there is described a filter system used for filtering the noisy measurement waveforms. The calculation results of the model of a 44 kW synchronous generator installed on a laboratory stand of the Institute of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science of the Silesian University of Technology are also given. The presented estimation method can be successfully applied to parameter estimation of different models of high-power synchronous generators operating in a power system.

  1. On the role of modeling parameters in IMRT plan optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krause, Michael; Scherrer, Alexander; Thieke, Christian

    2008-01-01

    The formulation of optimization problems in intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) planning comprises the choice of various values such as function-specific parameters or constraint bounds. In current inverse planning programs that yield a single treatment plan for each optimization, it is often unclear how strongly these modeling parameters affect the resulting plan. This work investigates the mathematical concepts of elasticity and sensitivity to deal with this problem. An artificial planning case with a horse-shoe formed target with different opening angles surrounding a circular risk structure is studied. As evaluation functions the generalized equivalent uniform dose (EUD) and the average underdosage below and average overdosage beyond certain dose thresholds are used. A single IMRT plan is calculated for an exemplary parameter configuration. The elasticity and sensitivity of each parameter are then calculated without re-optimization, and the results are numerically verified. The results show the following. (1) elasticity can quantify the influence of a modeling parameter on the optimization result in terms of how strongly the objective function value varies under modifications of the parameter value. It also can describe how strongly the geometry of the involved planning structures affects the optimization result. (2) Based on the current parameter settings and corresponding treatment plan, sensitivity analysis can predict the optimization result for modified parameter values without re-optimization, and it can estimate the value intervals in which such predictions are valid. In conclusion, elasticity and sensitivity can provide helpful tools in inverse IMRT planning to identify the most critical parameters of an individual planning problem and to modify their values in an appropriate way

  2. A compact cyclic plasticity model with parameter evolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krenk, Steen; Tidemann, L.

    2017-01-01

    The paper presents a compact model for cyclic plasticity based on energy in terms of external and internal variables, and plastic yielding described by kinematic hardening and a flow potential with an additive term controlling the nonlinear cyclic hardening. The model is basically described by five...... parameters: external and internal stiffness, a yield stress and a limiting ultimate stress, and finally a parameter controlling the gradual development of plastic deformation. Calibration against numerous experimental results indicates that typically larger plastic strains develop than predicted...

  3. Climate change decision-making: Model & parameter uncertainties explored

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dowlatabadi, H.; Kandlikar, M.; Linville, C.

    1995-12-31

    A critical aspect of climate change decision-making is uncertainties in current understanding of the socioeconomic, climatic and biogeochemical processes involved. Decision-making processes are much better informed if these uncertainties are characterized and their implications understood. Quantitative analysis of these uncertainties serve to inform decision makers about the likely outcome of policy initiatives, and help set priorities for research so that outcome ambiguities faced by the decision-makers are reduced. A family of integrated assessment models of climate change have been developed at Carnegie Mellon. These models are distinguished from other integrated assessment efforts in that they were designed from the outset to characterize and propagate parameter, model, value, and decision-rule uncertainties. The most recent of these models is ICAM 2.1. This model includes representation of the processes of demographics, economic activity, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, climate and sea level change and impacts from these changes and policies for emissions mitigation, and adaptation to change. The model has over 800 objects of which about one half are used to represent uncertainty. In this paper we show, that when considering parameter uncertainties, the relative contribution of climatic uncertainties are most important, followed by uncertainties in damage calculations, economic uncertainties and direct aerosol forcing uncertainties. When considering model structure uncertainties we find that the choice of policy is often dominated by model structure choice, rather than parameter uncertainties.

  4. On the effect of model parameters on forecast objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzban, Caren; Jones, Corinne; Li, Ning; Sandgathe, Scott

    2018-04-01

    Many physics-based numerical models produce a gridded, spatial field of forecasts, e.g., a temperature map. The field for some quantities generally consists of spatially coherent and disconnected objects. Such objects arise in many problems, including precipitation forecasts in atmospheric models, eddy currents in ocean models, and models of forest fires. Certain features of these objects (e.g., location, size, intensity, and shape) are generally of interest. Here, a methodology is developed for assessing the impact of model parameters on the features of forecast objects. The main ingredients of the methodology include the use of (1) Latin hypercube sampling for varying the values of the model parameters, (2) statistical clustering algorithms for identifying objects, (3) multivariate multiple regression for assessing the impact of multiple model parameters on the distribution (across the forecast domain) of object features, and (4) methods for reducing the number of hypothesis tests and controlling the resulting errors. The final output of the methodology is a series of box plots and confidence intervals that visually display the sensitivities. The methodology is demonstrated on precipitation forecasts from a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model.

  5. Posteriorly directed shear loads and disc degeneration affect the torsional stiffness of spinal motion segments; a biomechanical modeling study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Homminga, Jasper Johan; Lehr, A.M.; Meijer, Gerdine; Janssen, M.M.A.; Schlösser, T.P.C.; Verkerke, Gijsbertus Jacob; Castelein, R.M.

    2013-01-01

    Objective. To analyze the effects of posterior shear loads, disc degeneration, and the combination of both on spinal torsion stiffness. Summary of Background Data. Scoliosis is a 3-dimensional deformity of the spine that presents itself mainly in adolescent girls and elderly patients. Our concept of

  6. Parameter estimation in nonlinear models for pesticide degradation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richter, O.; Pestemer, W.; Bunte, D.; Diekkrueger, B.

    1991-01-01

    A wide class of environmental transfer models is formulated as ordinary or partial differential equations. With the availability of fast computers, the numerical solution of large systems became feasible. The main difficulty in performing a realistic and convincing simulation of the fate of a substance in the biosphere is not the implementation of numerical techniques but rather the incomplete data basis for parameter estimation. Parameter estimation is a synonym for statistical and numerical procedures to derive reasonable numerical values for model parameters from data. The classical method is the familiar linear regression technique which dates back to the 18th century. Because it is easy to handle, linear regression has long been established as a convenient tool for analysing relationships. However, the wide use of linear regression has led to an overemphasis of linear relationships. In nature, most relationships are nonlinear and linearization often gives a poor approximation of reality. Furthermore, pure regression models are not capable to map the dynamics of a process. Therefore, realistic models involve the evolution in time (and space). This leads in a natural way to the formulation of differential equations. To establish the link between data and dynamical models, numerical advanced parameter identification methods have been developed in recent years. This paper demonstrates the application of these techniques to estimation problems in the field of pesticide dynamics. (7 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs.)

  7. Global parameter estimation for thermodynamic models of transcriptional regulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suleimenov, Yerzhan; Ay, Ahmet; Samee, Md Abul Hassan; Dresch, Jacqueline M; Sinha, Saurabh; Arnosti, David N

    2013-07-15

    Deciphering the mechanisms involved in gene regulation holds the key to understanding the control of central biological processes, including human disease, population variation, and the evolution of morphological innovations. New experimental techniques including whole genome sequencing and transcriptome analysis have enabled comprehensive modeling approaches to study gene regulation. In many cases, it is useful to be able to assign biological significance to the inferred model parameters, but such interpretation should take into account features that affect these parameters, including model construction and sensitivity, the type of fitness calculation, and the effectiveness of parameter estimation. This last point is often neglected, as estimation methods are often selected for historical reasons or for computational ease. Here, we compare the performance of two parameter estimation techniques broadly representative of local and global approaches, namely, a quasi-Newton/Nelder-Mead simplex (QN/NMS) method and a covariance matrix adaptation-evolutionary strategy (CMA-ES) method. The estimation methods were applied to a set of thermodynamic models of gene transcription applied to regulatory elements active in the Drosophila embryo. Measuring overall fit, the global CMA-ES method performed significantly better than the local QN/NMS method on high quality data sets, but this difference was negligible on lower quality data sets with increased noise or on data sets simplified by stringent thresholding. Our results suggest that the choice of parameter estimation technique for evaluation of gene expression models depends both on quality of data, the nature of the models [again, remains to be established] and the aims of the modeling effort. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Wasiolek

    2006-06-05

    This analysis is one of the technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), referred to in this report as the biosphere model. ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'' is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the biosphere model is presented in Figure 1-1 (based on BSC 2006 [DIRS 176938]). This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This analysis report defines and justifies values of atmospheric mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of the biosphere model to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception. This

  9. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M. Wasiolek

    2006-01-01

    This analysis is one of the technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), referred to in this report as the biosphere model. ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'' is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the biosphere model is presented in Figure 1-1 (based on BSC 2006 [DIRS 176938]). This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This analysis report defines and justifies values of atmospheric mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of the biosphere model to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception. This report is concerned primarily with the

  10. The level density parameters for fermi gas model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zuang Youxiang; Wang Cuilan; Zhou Chunmei; Su Zongdi

    1986-01-01

    Nuclear level densities are crucial ingredient in the statistical models, for instance, in the calculations of the widths, cross sections, emitted particle spectra, etc. for various reaction channels. In this work 667 sets of more reliable and new experimental data are adopted, which include average level spacing D D , radiative capture width Γ γ 0 at neutron binding energy and cumulative level number N 0 at the low excitation energy. They are published during 1973 to 1983. Based on the parameters given by Gilbert-Cameon and Cook the physical quantities mentioned above are calculated. The calculated results have the deviation obviously from experimental values. In order to improve the fitting, the parameters in the G-C formula are adjusted and new set of level density parameters is obsained. The parameters is this work are more suitable to fit new measurements

  11. Iterative integral parameter identification of a respiratory mechanics model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schranz, Christoph; Docherty, Paul D; Chiew, Yeong Shiong; Möller, Knut; Chase, J Geoffrey

    2012-07-18

    Patient-specific respiratory mechanics models can support the evaluation of optimal lung protective ventilator settings during ventilation therapy. Clinical application requires that the individual's model parameter values must be identified with information available at the bedside. Multiple linear regression or gradient-based parameter identification methods are highly sensitive to noise and initial parameter estimates. Thus, they are difficult to apply at the bedside to support therapeutic decisions. An iterative integral parameter identification method is applied to a second order respiratory mechanics model. The method is compared to the commonly used regression methods and error-mapping approaches using simulated and clinical data. The clinical potential of the method was evaluated on data from 13 Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) patients. The iterative integral method converged to error minima 350 times faster than the Simplex Search Method using simulation data sets and 50 times faster using clinical data sets. Established regression methods reported erroneous results due to sensitivity to noise. In contrast, the iterative integral method was effective independent of initial parameter estimations, and converged successfully in each case tested. These investigations reveal that the iterative integral method is beneficial with respect to computing time, operator independence and robustness, and thus applicable at the bedside for this clinical application.

  12. Iterative integral parameter identification of a respiratory mechanics model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schranz Christoph

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Patient-specific respiratory mechanics models can support the evaluation of optimal lung protective ventilator settings during ventilation therapy. Clinical application requires that the individual’s model parameter values must be identified with information available at the bedside. Multiple linear regression or gradient-based parameter identification methods are highly sensitive to noise and initial parameter estimates. Thus, they are difficult to apply at the bedside to support therapeutic decisions. Methods An iterative integral parameter identification method is applied to a second order respiratory mechanics model. The method is compared to the commonly used regression methods and error-mapping approaches using simulated and clinical data. The clinical potential of the method was evaluated on data from 13 Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS patients. Results The iterative integral method converged to error minima 350 times faster than the Simplex Search Method using simulation data sets and 50 times faster using clinical data sets. Established regression methods reported erroneous results due to sensitivity to noise. In contrast, the iterative integral method was effective independent of initial parameter estimations, and converged successfully in each case tested. Conclusion These investigations reveal that the iterative integral method is beneficial with respect to computing time, operator independence and robustness, and thus applicable at the bedside for this clinical application.

  13. MODELLING BIOPHYSICAL PARAMETERS OF MAIZE USING LANDSAT 8 TIME SERIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Dahms

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Open and free access to multi-frequent high-resolution data (e.g. Sentinel – 2 will fortify agricultural applications based on satellite data. The temporal and spatial resolution of these remote sensing datasets directly affects the applicability of remote sensing methods, for instance a robust retrieving of biophysical parameters over the entire growing season with very high geometric resolution. In this study we use machine learning methods to predict biophysical parameters, namely the fraction of absorbed photosynthetic radiation (FPAR, the leaf area index (LAI and the chlorophyll content, from high resolution remote sensing. 30 Landsat 8 OLI scenes were available in our study region in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Germany. In-situ data were weekly to bi-weekly collected on 18 maize plots throughout the summer season 2015. The study aims at an optimized prediction of biophysical parameters and the identification of the best explaining spectral bands and vegetation indices. For this purpose, we used the entire in-situ dataset from 24.03.2015 to 15.10.2015. Random forest and conditional inference forests were used because of their explicit strong exploratory and predictive character. Variable importance measures allowed for analysing the relation between the biophysical parameters with respect to the spectral response, and the performance of the two approaches over the plant stock evolvement. Classical random forest regression outreached the performance of conditional inference forests, in particular when modelling the biophysical parameters over the entire growing period. For example, modelling biophysical parameters of maize for the entire vegetation period using random forests yielded: FPAR: R² = 0.85; RMSE = 0.11; LAI: R² = 0.64; RMSE = 0.9 and chlorophyll content (SPAD: R² = 0.80; RMSE=4.9. Our results demonstrate the great potential in using machine-learning methods for the interpretation of long-term multi-frequent remote sensing

  14. Modelling Biophysical Parameters of Maize Using Landsat 8 Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahms, Thorsten; Seissiger, Sylvia; Conrad, Christopher; Borg, Erik

    2016-06-01

    Open and free access to multi-frequent high-resolution data (e.g. Sentinel - 2) will fortify agricultural applications based on satellite data. The temporal and spatial resolution of these remote sensing datasets directly affects the applicability of remote sensing methods, for instance a robust retrieving of biophysical parameters over the entire growing season with very high geometric resolution. In this study we use machine learning methods to predict biophysical parameters, namely the fraction of absorbed photosynthetic radiation (FPAR), the leaf area index (LAI) and the chlorophyll content, from high resolution remote sensing. 30 Landsat 8 OLI scenes were available in our study region in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Germany. In-situ data were weekly to bi-weekly collected on 18 maize plots throughout the summer season 2015. The study aims at an optimized prediction of biophysical parameters and the identification of the best explaining spectral bands and vegetation indices. For this purpose, we used the entire in-situ dataset from 24.03.2015 to 15.10.2015. Random forest and conditional inference forests were used because of their explicit strong exploratory and predictive character. Variable importance measures allowed for analysing the relation between the biophysical parameters with respect to the spectral response, and the performance of the two approaches over the plant stock evolvement. Classical random forest regression outreached the performance of conditional inference forests, in particular when modelling the biophysical parameters over the entire growing period. For example, modelling biophysical parameters of maize for the entire vegetation period using random forests yielded: FPAR: R² = 0.85; RMSE = 0.11; LAI: R² = 0.64; RMSE = 0.9 and chlorophyll content (SPAD): R² = 0.80; RMSE=4.9. Our results demonstrate the great potential in using machine-learning methods for the interpretation of long-term multi-frequent remote sensing datasets to model

  15. Parameter sensitivity analysis of a lumped-parameter model of a chain of lymphangions in series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamalian, Samira; Bertram, Christopher D; Richardson, William J; Moore, James E

    2013-12-01

    Any disruption of the lymphatic system due to trauma or injury can lead to edema. There is no effective cure for lymphedema, partly because predictive knowledge of lymphatic system reactions to interventions is lacking. A well-developed model of the system could greatly improve our understanding of its function. Lymphangions, defined as the vessel segment between two valves, are the individual pumping units. Based on our previous lumped-parameter model of a chain of lymphangions, this study aimed to identify the parameters that affect the system output the most using a sensitivity analysis. The system was highly sensitive to minimum valve resistance, such that variations in this parameter caused an order-of-magnitude change in time-average flow rate for certain values of imposed pressure difference. Average flow rate doubled when contraction frequency was increased within its physiological range. Optimum lymphangion length was found to be some 13-14.5 diameters. A peak of time-average flow rate occurred when transmural pressure was such that the pressure-diameter loop for active contractions was centered near maximum passive vessel compliance. Increasing the number of lymphangions in the chain improved the pumping in the presence of larger adverse pressure differences. For a given pressure difference, the optimal number of lymphangions increased with the total vessel length. These results indicate that further experiments to estimate valve resistance more accurately are necessary. The existence of an optimal value of transmural pressure may provide additional guidelines for increasing pumping in areas affected by edema.

  16. X-Parameter Based Modelling of Polar Modulated Power Amplifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Yelin; Nielsen, Troels Studsgaard; Sira, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    X-parameters are developed as an extension of S-parameters capable of modelling non-linear devices driven by large signals. They are suitable for devices having only radio frequency (RF) and DC ports. In a polar power amplifier (PA), phase and envelope of the input modulated signal are applied...... at separate ports and the envelope port is neither an RF nor a DC port. As a result, X-parameters may fail to characterise the effect of the envelope port excitation and consequently the polar PA. This study introduces a solution to the problem for a commercial polar PA. In this solution, the RF-phase path...... PA for simulations. The simulated error vector magnitude (EVM) and adjacent channel power ratio (ACPR) were compared with the measured data to validate the model. The maximum differences between the simulated and measured EVM and ACPR are less than 2% point and 3 dB, respectively....

  17. Identifiability and error minimization of receptor model parameters with PET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delforge, J.; Syrota, A.; Mazoyer, B.M.

    1989-01-01

    The identifiability problem and the general framework for experimental design optimization are presented. The methodology is applied to the problem of the receptor-ligand model parameter estimation with dynamic positron emission tomography data. The first attempts to identify the model parameters from data obtained with a single tracer injection led to disappointing numerical results. The possibility of improving parameter estimation using a new experimental design combining an injection of the labelled ligand and an injection of the cold ligand (displacement experiment) has been investigated. However, this second protocol led to two very different numerical solutions and it was necessary to demonstrate which solution was biologically valid. This has been possible by using a third protocol including both a displacement and a co-injection experiment. (authors). 16 refs.; 14 figs

  18. Prediction of interest rate using CKLS model with stochastic parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ying, Khor Chia; Hin, Pooi Ah

    2014-01-01

    The Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff and Sanders (CKLS) model is a popular one-factor model for describing the spot interest rates. In this paper, the four parameters in the CKLS model are regarded as stochastic. The parameter vector φ (j) of four parameters at the (J+n)-th time point is estimated by the j-th window which is defined as the set consisting of the observed interest rates at the j′-th time point where j≤j′≤j+n. To model the variation of φ (j) , we assume that φ (j) depends on φ (j−m) , φ (j−m+1) ,…, φ (j−1) and the interest rate r j+n at the (j+n)-th time point via a four-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a [4(m+1)+1]-dimensional power-normal distribution. Treating the (j+n)-th time point as the present time point, we find a prediction interval for the future value r j+n+1 of the interest rate at the next time point when the value r j+n of the interest rate is given. From the above four-dimensional conditional distribution, we also find a prediction interval for the future interest rate r j+n+d at the next d-th (d≥2) time point. The prediction intervals based on the CKLS model with stochastic parameters are found to have better ability of covering the observed future interest rates when compared with those based on the model with fixed parameters

  19. Model parameters estimation and sensitivity by genetic algorithms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marseguerra, Marzio; Zio, Enrico; Podofillini, Luca

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we illustrate the possibility of extracting qualitative information on the importance of the parameters of a model in the course of a Genetic Algorithms (GAs) optimization procedure for the estimation of such parameters. The Genetic Algorithms' search of the optimal solution is performed according to procedures that resemble those of natural selection and genetics: an initial population of alternative solutions evolves within the search space through the four fundamental operations of parent selection, crossover, replacement, and mutation. During the search, the algorithm examines a large amount of solution points which possibly carries relevant information on the underlying model characteristics. A possible utilization of this information amounts to create and update an archive with the set of best solutions found at each generation and then to analyze the evolution of the statistics of the archive along the successive generations. From this analysis one can retrieve information regarding the speed of convergence and stabilization of the different control (decision) variables of the optimization problem. In this work we analyze the evolution strategy followed by a GA in its search for the optimal solution with the aim of extracting information on the importance of the control (decision) variables of the optimization with respect to the sensitivity of the objective function. The study refers to a GA search for optimal estimates of the effective parameters in a lumped nuclear reactor model of literature. The supporting observation is that, as most optimization procedures do, the GA search evolves towards convergence in such a way to stabilize first the most important parameters of the model and later those which influence little the model outputs. In this sense, besides estimating efficiently the parameters values, the optimization approach also allows us to provide a qualitative ranking of their importance in contributing to the model output. The

  20. Prediction of interest rate using CKLS model with stochastic parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ying, Khor Chia [Faculty of Computing and Informatics, Multimedia University, Jalan Multimedia, 63100 Cyberjaya, Selangor (Malaysia); Hin, Pooi Ah [Sunway University Business School, No. 5, Jalan Universiti, Bandar Sunway, 47500 Subang Jaya, Selangor (Malaysia)

    2014-06-19

    The Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff and Sanders (CKLS) model is a popular one-factor model for describing the spot interest rates. In this paper, the four parameters in the CKLS model are regarded as stochastic. The parameter vector φ{sup (j)} of four parameters at the (J+n)-th time point is estimated by the j-th window which is defined as the set consisting of the observed interest rates at the j′-th time point where j≤j′≤j+n. To model the variation of φ{sup (j)}, we assume that φ{sup (j)} depends on φ{sup (j−m)}, φ{sup (j−m+1)},…, φ{sup (j−1)} and the interest rate r{sub j+n} at the (j+n)-th time point via a four-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a [4(m+1)+1]-dimensional power-normal distribution. Treating the (j+n)-th time point as the present time point, we find a prediction interval for the future value r{sub j+n+1} of the interest rate at the next time point when the value r{sub j+n} of the interest rate is given. From the above four-dimensional conditional distribution, we also find a prediction interval for the future interest rate r{sub j+n+d} at the next d-th (d≥2) time point. The prediction intervals based on the CKLS model with stochastic parameters are found to have better ability of covering the observed future interest rates when compared with those based on the model with fixed parameters.

  1. Mathematical models to predict rheological parameters of lateritic hydromixtures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Hernández-Ramírez

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The present work had as objective to establish mathematical models that allow the prognosis of the rheological parameters of the lateritic pulp at concentrations of solids from 35% to 48%, temperature of the preheated hydromixture superior to 82 ° C and number of mineral between 3 and 16. Four samples of lateritic pulp were used in the study at different process locations. The results allowed defining that the plastic properties of the lateritic pulp in the conditions of this study conform to the Herschel-Bulkley model for real plastics. In addition, they show that for current operating conditions, even for new situations, UPD mathematical models have a greater ability to predict rheological parameters than least squares mathematical models.

  2. Averaging models: parameters estimation with the R-Average procedure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Noventa

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The Functional Measurement approach, proposed within the theoretical framework of Information Integration Theory (Anderson, 1981, 1982, can be a useful multi-attribute analysis tool. Compared to the majority of statistical models, the averaging model can account for interaction effects without adding complexity. The R-Average method (Vidotto & Vicentini, 2007 can be used to estimate the parameters of these models. By the use of multiple information criteria in the model selection procedure, R-Average allows for the identification of the best subset of parameters that account for the data. After a review of the general method, we present an implementation of the procedure in the framework of R-project, followed by some experiments using a Monte Carlo method.

  3. Revised Parameters for the AMOEBA Polarizable Atomic Multipole Water Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pande, Vijay S.; Head-Gordon, Teresa; Ponder, Jay W.

    2016-01-01

    A set of improved parameters for the AMOEBA polarizable atomic multipole water model is developed. The protocol uses an automated procedure, ForceBalance, to adjust model parameters to enforce agreement with ab initio-derived results for water clusters and experimentally obtained data for a variety of liquid phase properties across a broad temperature range. The values reported here for the new AMOEBA14 water model represent a substantial improvement over the previous AMOEBA03 model. The new AMOEBA14 water model accurately predicts the temperature of maximum density and qualitatively matches the experimental density curve across temperatures ranging from 249 K to 373 K. Excellent agreement is observed for the AMOEBA14 model in comparison to a variety of experimental properties as a function of temperature, including the 2nd virial coefficient, enthalpy of vaporization, isothermal compressibility, thermal expansion coefficient and dielectric constant. The viscosity, self-diffusion constant and surface tension are also well reproduced. In comparison to high-level ab initio results for clusters of 2 to 20 water molecules, the AMOEBA14 model yields results similar to the AMOEBA03 and the direct polarization iAMOEBA models. With advances in computing power, calibration data, and optimization techniques, we recommend the use of the AMOEBA14 water model for future studies employing a polarizable water model. PMID:25683601

  4. Comparisons of criteria in the assessment model parameter optimizations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Xinhe; Zhang Yongxing

    1993-01-01

    Three criteria (chi square, relative chi square and correlation coefficient) used in model parameter optimization (MPO) process that aims at significant reduction of prediction uncertainties were discussed and compared to each other with the aid of a well-controlled tracer experiment

  5. Revised models and genetic parameter estimates for production and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Genetic parameters for production and reproduction traits in the Elsenburg Dormer sheep stud were estimated using records of 11743 lambs born between 1943 and 2002. An animal model with direct and maternal additive, maternal permanent and temporary environmental effects was fitted for traits considered traits of the ...

  6. Determination of parameters in elasto-plastic models of aluminium.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meuwissen, M.H.H.; Oomens, C.W.J.; Baaijens, F.P.T.; Petterson, R.; Janssen, J.D.; Sol, H.; Oomens, C.W.J.

    1997-01-01

    A mixed numerical-experimental method is used to determine parameters in elasto-plastic constitutive models. An aluminium plate of non-standard geometry is mounted in a uniaxial tensile testing machine at which some adjustments are made to carry out shear tests. The sample is loaded and the total

  7. Parameter Estimation for a Computable General Equilibrium Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Robinson, Sherman; Tarp, Finn

    2002-01-01

    We introduce a maximum entropy approach to parameter estimation for computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The approach applies information theory to estimating a system of non-linear simultaneous equations. It has a number of advantages. First, it imposes all general equilibrium constraints...

  8. Parameter Estimation for a Computable General Equilibrium Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Robinson, Sherman; Tarp, Finn

    We introduce a maximum entropy approach to parameter estimation for computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The approach applies information theory to estimating a system of nonlinear simultaneous equations. It has a number of advantages. First, it imposes all general equilibrium constraints...

  9. Do Lumped-Parameter Models Provide the Correct Geometrical Damping?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars

    response during excitation and the geometrical damping related to free vibrations of a hexagonal footing. The optimal order of a lumped-parameter model is determined for each degree of freedom, i.e. horizontal and vertical translation as well as torsion and rocking. In particular, the necessity of coupling...... between horizontal sliding and rocking is discussed....

  10. Key processes and input parameters for environmental tritium models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunnenberg, C.; Taschner, M.; Ogram, G.L.

    1994-01-01

    The primary objective of the work reported here is to define key processes and input parameters for mathematical models of environmental tritium behaviour adequate for use in safety analysis and licensing of fusion devices like NET and associated tritium handling facilities. (author). 45 refs., 3 figs

  11. Key processes and input parameters for environmental tritium models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bunnenberg, C; Taschner, M [Niedersaechsisches Inst. fuer Radiooekologie, Hannover (Germany); Ogram, G L [Ontario Hydro, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    1994-12-31

    The primary objective of the work reported here is to define key processes and input parameters for mathematical models of environmental tritium behaviour adequate for use in safety analysis and licensing of fusion devices like NET and associated tritium handling facilities. (author). 45 refs., 3 figs.

  12. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-09-24

    This analysis is one of the nine reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003a) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents a set of input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. This report, ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2003b). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development at the time this report is issued and therefore not available at that time. This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this analysis report. This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading, which is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Measurements of mass loading are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air surrounding crops and concentrations in air

  13. Integrating microbial diversity in soil carbon dynamic models parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louis, Benjamin; Menasseri-Aubry, Safya; Leterme, Philippe; Maron, Pierre-Alain; Viaud, Valérie

    2015-04-01

    Faced with the numerous concerns about soil carbon dynamic, a large quantity of carbon dynamic models has been developed during the last century. These models are mainly in the form of deterministic compartment models with carbon fluxes between compartments represented by ordinary differential equations. Nowadays, lots of them consider the microbial biomass as a compartment of the soil organic matter (carbon quantity). But the amount of microbial carbon is rarely used in the differential equations of the models as a limiting factor. Additionally, microbial diversity and community composition are mostly missing, although last advances in soil microbial analytical methods during the two past decades have shown that these characteristics play also a significant role in soil carbon dynamic. As soil microorganisms are essential drivers of soil carbon dynamic, the question about explicitly integrating their role have become a key issue in soil carbon dynamic models development. Some interesting attempts can be found and are dominated by the incorporation of several compartments of different groups of microbial biomass in terms of functional traits and/or biogeochemical compositions to integrate microbial diversity. However, these models are basically heuristic models in the sense that they are used to test hypotheses through simulations. They have rarely been confronted to real data and thus cannot be used to predict realistic situations. The objective of this work was to empirically integrate microbial diversity in a simple model of carbon dynamic through statistical modelling of the model parameters. This work is based on available experimental results coming from a French National Research Agency program called DIMIMOS. Briefly, 13C-labelled wheat residue has been incorporated into soils with different pedological characteristics and land use history. Then, the soils have been incubated during 104 days and labelled and non-labelled CO2 fluxes have been measured at ten

  14. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-01-01

    This analysis is one of the nine reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003a) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents a set of input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. This report, ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2003b). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development at the time this report is issued and therefore not available at that time. This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this analysis report. This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading, which is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Measurements of mass loading are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air surrounding crops and concentrations in air inhaled by a receptor. Concentrations in air to which the

  15. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    K. Rasmuson; K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-09-14

    This analysis is one of 10 technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) (i.e., the biosphere model). It documents development of agricultural and environmental input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters.

  16. Evaluation of some infiltration models and hydraulic parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haghighi, F.; Gorji, M.; Shorafa, M.; Sarmadian, F.; Mohammadi, M. H.

    2010-01-01

    The evaluation of infiltration characteristics and some parameters of infiltration models such as sorptivity and final steady infiltration rate in soils are important in agriculture. The aim of this study was to evaluate some of the most common models used to estimate final soil infiltration rate. The equality of final infiltration rate with saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) was also tested. Moreover, values of the estimated sorptivity from the Philips model were compared to estimates by selected pedotransfer functions (PTFs). The infiltration experiments used the doublering method on soils with two different land uses in the Taleghan watershed of Tehran province, Iran, from September to October, 2007. The infiltration models of Kostiakov-Lewis, Philip two-term and Horton were fitted to observed infiltration data. Some parameters of the models and the coefficient of determination goodness of fit were estimated using MATLAB software. The results showed that, based on comparing measured and model-estimated infiltration rate using root mean squared error (RMSE), Hortons model gave the best prediction of final infiltration rate in the experimental area. Laboratory measured Ks values gave significant differences and higher values than estimated final infiltration rates from the selected models. The estimated final infiltration rate was not equal to laboratory measured Ks values in the study area. Moreover, the estimated sorptivity factor by Philips model was significantly different to those estimated by selected PTFs. It is suggested that the applicability of PTFs is limited to specific, similar conditions. (Author) 37 refs.

  17. Electro-optical parameters of bond polarizability model for aluminosilicates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smirnov, Konstantin S; Bougeard, Daniel; Tandon, Poonam

    2006-04-06

    Electro-optical parameters (EOPs) of bond polarizability model (BPM) for aluminosilicate structures were derived from quantum-chemical DFT calculations of molecular models. The tensor of molecular polarizability and the derivatives of the tensor with respect to the bond length are well reproduced with the BPM, and the EOPs obtained are in a fair agreement with available experimental data. The parameters derived were found to be transferable to larger molecules. This finding suggests that the procedure used can be applied to systems with partially ionic chemical bonds. The transferability of the parameters to periodic systems was tested in molecular dynamics simulation of the polarized Raman spectra of alpha-quartz. It appeared that the molecular Si-O bond EOPs failed to reproduce the intensity of peaks in the spectra. This limitation is due to large values of the longitudinal components of the bond polarizability and its derivative found in the molecular calculations as compared to those obtained from periodic DFT calculations of crystalline silica polymorphs by Umari et al. (Phys. Rev. B 2001, 63, 094305). It is supposed that the electric field of the solid is responsible for the difference of the parameters. Nevertheless, the EOPs obtained can be used as an initial set of parameters for calculations of polarizability related characteristics of relevant systems in the framework of BPM.

  18. Estimating model parameters in nonautonomous chaotic systems using synchronization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Xiaoli; Xu, Wei; Sun, Zhongkui

    2007-01-01

    In this Letter, a technique is addressed for estimating unknown model parameters of multivariate, in particular, nonautonomous chaotic systems from time series of state variables. This technique uses an adaptive strategy for tracking unknown parameters in addition to a linear feedback coupling for synchronizing systems, and then some general conditions, by means of the periodic version of the LaSalle invariance principle for differential equations, are analytically derived to ensure precise evaluation of unknown parameters and identical synchronization between the concerned experimental system and its corresponding receiver one. Exemplifies are presented by employing a parametrically excited 4D new oscillator and an additionally excited Ueda oscillator. The results of computer simulations reveal that the technique not only can quickly track the desired parameter values but also can rapidly respond to changes in operating parameters. In addition, the technique can be favorably robust against the effect of noise when the experimental system is corrupted by bounded disturbance and the normalized absolute error of parameter estimation grows almost linearly with the cutoff value of noise strength in simulation

  19. Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, A. J.

    2004-01-01

    This report presents one of the analyses that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the details of the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and the required input parameters. The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the postclosure Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. A schematic representation of the documentation flow for the Biosphere input to TSPA is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the evolutionary relationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this report. This report, ''Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five analysis reports that develop input parameters for use in the ERMYN model. This report is the source documentation for the six biosphere parameters identified in Table 1-1. The purpose of this analysis was to develop the biosphere model parameters associated with the accumulation and depletion of radionuclides in the soil. These parameters support the calculation of radionuclide concentrations in soil from on-going irrigation or ash deposition and, as a direct consequence, radionuclide concentration in other environmental media that are affected by radionuclide concentrations in soil. The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) where the governing procedure was defined as AP-SIII.9Q, ''Scientific Analyses''. This

  20. Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A. J. Smith

    2004-09-09

    This report presents one of the analyses that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the details of the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and the required input parameters. The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the postclosure Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. A schematic representation of the documentation flow for the Biosphere input to TSPA is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the evolutionary relationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this report. This report, ''Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five analysis reports that develop input parameters for use in the ERMYN model. This report is the source documentation for the six biosphere parameters identified in Table 1-1. The purpose of this analysis was to develop the biosphere model parameters associated with the accumulation and depletion of radionuclides in the soil. These parameters support the calculation of radionuclide concentrations in soil from on-going irrigation or ash deposition and, as a direct consequence, radionuclide concentration in other environmental media that are affected by radionuclide concentrations in soil. The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) where the governing procedure

  1. Mass balance model parameter transferability on a tropical glacier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurgiser, Wolfgang; Mölg, Thomas; Nicholson, Lindsey; Kaser, Georg

    2013-04-01

    The mass balance and melt water production of glaciers is of particular interest in the Peruvian Andes where glacier melt water has markedly increased water supply during the pronounced dry seasons in recent decades. However, the melt water contribution from glaciers is projected to decrease with appreciable negative impacts on the local society within the coming decades. Understanding mass balance processes on tropical glaciers is a prerequisite for modeling present and future glacier runoff. As a first step towards this aim we applied a process-based surface mass balance model in order to calculate observed ablation at two stakes in the ablation zone of Shallap Glacier (4800 m a.s.l., 9°S) in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Under the tropical climate, the snow line migrates very frequently across most of the ablation zone all year round causing large temporal and spatial variations of glacier surface conditions and related ablation. Consequently, pronounced differences between the two chosen stakes and the two years were observed. Hourly records of temperature, humidity, wind speed, short wave incoming radiation, and precipitation are available from an automatic weather station (AWS) on the moraine near the glacier for the hydrological years 2006/07 and 2007/08 while stake readings are available at intervals of between 14 to 64 days. To optimize model parameters, we used 1000 model simulations in which the most sensitive model parameters were varied randomly within their physically meaningful ranges. The modeled surface height change was evaluated against the two stake locations in the lower ablation zone (SH11, 4760m) and in the upper ablation zone (SH22, 4816m), respectively. The optimal parameter set for each point achieved good model skill but if we transfer the best parameter combination from one stake site to the other stake site model errors increases significantly. The same happens if we optimize the model parameters for each year individually and transfer

  2. Constraining statistical-model parameters using fusion and spallation reactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charity Robert J.

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The de-excitation of compound nuclei has been successfully described for several decades by means of statistical models. However, such models involve a large number of free parameters and ingredients that are often underconstrained by experimental data. We show how the degeneracy of the model ingredients can be partially lifted by studying different entrance channels for de-excitation, which populate different regions of the parameter space of the compound nucleus. Fusion reactions, in particular, play an important role in this strategy because they fix three out of four of the compound-nucleus parameters (mass, charge and total excitation energy. The present work focuses on fission and intermediate-mass-fragment emission cross sections. We prove how equivalent parameter sets for fusion-fission reactions can be resolved using another entrance channel, namely spallation reactions. Intermediate-mass-fragment emission can be constrained in a similar way. An interpretation of the best-fit IMF barriers in terms of the Wigner energies of the nascent fragments is discussed.

  3. Investigation of RADTRAN Stop Model input parameters for truck stops

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Griego, N.R.; Smith, J.D.; Neuhauser, K.S.

    1996-01-01

    RADTRAN is a computer code for estimating the risks and consequences as transport of radioactive materials (RAM). RADTRAN was developed and is maintained by Sandia National Laboratories for the US Department of Energy (DOE). For incident-free transportation, the dose to persons exposed while the shipment is stopped is frequently a major percentage of the overall dose. This dose is referred to as Stop Dose and is calculated by the Stop Model. Because stop dose is a significant portion of the overall dose associated with RAM transport, the values used as input for the Stop Model are important. Therefore, an investigation of typical values for RADTRAN Stop Parameters for truck stops was performed. The resulting data from these investigations were analyzed to provide mean values, standard deviations, and histograms. Hence, the mean values can be used when an analyst does not have a basis for selecting other input values for the Stop Model. In addition, the histograms and their characteristics can be used to guide statistical sampling techniques to measure sensitivity of the RADTRAN calculated Stop Dose to the uncertainties in the stop model input parameters. This paper discusses the details and presents the results of the investigation of stop model input parameters at truck stops

  4. Updated climatological model predictions of ionospheric and HF propagation parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reilly, M.H.; Rhoads, F.J.; Goodman, J.M.; Singh, M.

    1991-01-01

    The prediction performances of several climatological models, including the ionospheric conductivity and electron density model, RADAR C, and Ionospheric Communications Analysis and Predictions Program, are evaluated for different regions and sunspot number inputs. Particular attention is given to the near-real-time (NRT) predictions associated with single-station updates. It is shown that a dramatic improvement can be obtained by using single-station ionospheric data to update the driving parameters for an ionospheric model for NRT predictions of f(0)F2 and other ionospheric and HF circuit parameters. For middle latitudes, the improvement extends out thousands of kilometers from the update point to points of comparable corrected geomagnetic latitude. 10 refs

  5. Statistical approach for uncertainty quantification of experimental modal model parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Luczak, M.; Peeters, B.; Kahsin, M.

    2014-01-01

    Composite materials are widely used in manufacture of aerospace and wind energy structural components. These load carrying structures are subjected to dynamic time-varying loading conditions. Robust structural dynamics identification procedure impose tight constraints on the quality of modal models...... represent different complexity levels ranging from coupon, through sub-component up to fully assembled aerospace and wind energy structural components made of composite materials. The proposed method is demonstrated on two application cases of a small and large wind turbine blade........ This paper aims at a systematic approach for uncertainty quantification of the parameters of the modal models estimated from experimentally obtained data. Statistical analysis of modal parameters is implemented to derive an assessment of the entire modal model uncertainty measure. Investigated structures...

  6. Influential input parameters for reflood model of MARS code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oh, Deog Yeon; Bang, Young Seok [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-10-15

    Best Estimate (BE) calculation has been more broadly used in nuclear industries and regulations to reduce the significant conservatism for evaluating Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA). Reflood model has been identified as one of the problems in BE calculation. The objective of the Post BEMUSE Reflood Model Input Uncertainty Methods (PREMIUM) program of OECD/NEA is to make progress the issue of the quantification of the uncertainty of the physical models in system thermal hydraulic codes, by considering an experimental result especially for reflood. It is important to establish a methodology to identify and select the parameters influential to the response of reflood phenomena following Large Break LOCA. For this aspect, a reference calculation and sensitivity analysis to select the dominant influential parameters for FEBA experiment are performed.

  7. Four-parameter analytical local model potential for atoms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fei, Yu; Jiu-Xun, Sun; Rong-Gang, Tian; Wei, Yang

    2009-01-01

    Analytical local model potential for modeling the interaction in an atom reduces the computational effort in electronic structure calculations significantly. A new four-parameter analytical local model potential is proposed for atoms Li through Lr, and the values of four parameters are shell-independent and obtained by fitting the results of X a method. At the same time, the energy eigenvalues, the radial wave functions and the total energies of electrons are obtained by solving the radial Schrödinger equation with a new form of potential function by Numerov's numerical method. The results show that our new form of potential function is suitable for high, medium and low Z atoms. A comparison among the new potential function and other analytical potential functions shows the greater flexibility and greater accuracy of the present new potential function. (atomic and molecular physics)

  8. Mixed linear-nonlinear fault slip inversion: Bayesian inference of model, weighting, and smoothing parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukuda, J.; Johnson, K. M.

    2009-12-01

    Studies utilizing inversions of geodetic data for the spatial distribution of coseismic slip on faults typically present the result as a single fault plane and slip distribution. Commonly the geometry of the fault plane is assumed to be known a priori and the data are inverted for slip. However, sometimes there is not strong a priori information on the geometry of the fault that produced the earthquake and the data is not always strong enough to completely resolve the fault geometry. We develop a method to solve for the full posterior probability distribution of fault slip and fault geometry parameters in a Bayesian framework using Monte Carlo methods. The slip inversion problem is particularly challenging because it often involves multiple data sets with unknown relative weights (e.g. InSAR, GPS), model parameters that are related linearly (slip) and nonlinearly (fault geometry) through the theoretical model to surface observations, prior information on model parameters, and a regularization prior to stabilize the inversion. We present the theoretical framework and solution method for a Bayesian inversion that can handle all of these aspects of the problem. The method handles the mixed linear/nonlinear nature of the problem through combination of both analytical least-squares solutions and Monte Carlo methods. We first illustrate and validate the inversion scheme using synthetic data sets. We then apply the method to inversion of geodetic data from the 2003 M6.6 San Simeon, California earthquake. We show that the uncertainty in strike and dip of the fault plane is over 20 degrees. We characterize the uncertainty in the slip estimate with a volume around the mean fault solution in which the slip most likely occurred. Slip likely occurred somewhere in a volume that extends 5-10 km in either direction normal to the fault plane. We implement slip inversions with both traditional, kinematic smoothing constraints on slip and a simple physical condition of uniform stress

  9. Application of parameters space analysis tools for empirical model validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paloma del Barrio, E. [LEPT-ENSAM UMR 8508, Talence (France); Guyon, G. [Electricite de France, Moret-sur-Loing (France)

    2004-01-01

    A new methodology for empirical model validation has been proposed in the framework of the Task 22 (Building Energy Analysis Tools) of the International Energy Agency. It involves two main steps: checking model validity and diagnosis. Both steps, as well as the underlying methods, have been presented in the first part of the paper. In this part, they are applied for testing modelling hypothesis in the framework of the thermal analysis of an actual building. Sensitivity analysis tools have been first used to identify the parts of the model that can be really tested on the available data. A preliminary diagnosis is then supplied by principal components analysis. Useful information for model behaviour improvement has been finally obtained by optimisation techniques. This example of application shows how model parameters space analysis is a powerful tool for empirical validation. In particular, diagnosis possibilities are largely increased in comparison with residuals analysis techniques. (author)

  10. Test models for improving filtering with model errors through stochastic parameter estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gershgorin, B.; Harlim, J.; Majda, A.J.

    2010-01-01

    The filtering skill for turbulent signals from nature is often limited by model errors created by utilizing an imperfect model for filtering. Updating the parameters in the imperfect model through stochastic parameter estimation is one way to increase filtering skill and model performance. Here a suite of stringent test models for filtering with stochastic parameter estimation is developed based on the Stochastic Parameterization Extended Kalman Filter (SPEKF). These new SPEKF-algorithms systematically correct both multiplicative and additive biases and involve exact formulas for propagating the mean and covariance including the parameters in the test model. A comprehensive study is presented of robust parameter regimes for increasing filtering skill through stochastic parameter estimation for turbulent signals as the observation time and observation noise are varied and even when the forcing is incorrectly specified. The results here provide useful guidelines for filtering turbulent signals in more complex systems with significant model errors.

  11. Model parameter learning using Kullback-Leibler divergence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chungwei; Marks, Tim K.; Pajovic, Milutin; Watanabe, Shinji; Tung, Chih-kuan

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we address the following problem: For a given set of spin configurations whose probability distribution is of the Boltzmann type, how do we determine the model coupling parameters? We demonstrate that directly minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence is an efficient method. We test this method against the Ising and XY models on the one-dimensional (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) lattices, and provide two estimators to quantify the model quality. We apply this method to two types of problems. First, we apply it to the real-space renormalization group (RG). We find that the obtained RG flow is sufficiently good for determining the phase boundary (within 1% of the exact result) and the critical point, but not accurate enough for critical exponents. The proposed method provides a simple way to numerically estimate amplitudes of the interactions typically truncated in the real-space RG procedure. Second, we apply this method to the dynamical system composed of self-propelled particles, where we extract the parameter of a statistical model (a generalized XY model) from a dynamical system described by the Viscek model. We are able to obtain reasonable coupling values corresponding to different noise strengths of the Viscek model. Our method is thus able to provide quantitative analysis of dynamical systems composed of self-propelled particles.

  12. Biosphere modelling for a HLW repository - scenario and parameter variations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grogan, H.

    1985-03-01

    In Switzerland high-level radioactive wastes have been considered for disposal in deep-lying crystalline formations. The individual doses to man resulting from radionuclides entering the biosphere via groundwater transport are calculated. The main recipient area modelled, which constitutes the base case, is a broad gravel terrace sited along the south bank of the river Rhine. An alternative recipient region, a small valley with a well, is also modelled. A number of parameter variations are performed in order to ascertain their impact on the doses. Finally two scenario changes are modelled somewhat simplistically, these consider different prevailing climates, namely tundra and a warmer climate than present. In the base case negligibly low doses to man in the long term, resulting from the existence of a HLW repository have been calculated. Cs-135 results in the largest dose (8.4E-7 mrem/y at 6.1E+6 y) while Np-237 gives the largest dose from the actinides (3.6E-8 mrem/y). The response of the model to parameter variations cannot be easily predicted due to non-linear coupling of many of the parameters. However, the calculated doses were negligibly low in all cases as were those resulting from the two scenario variations. (author)

  13. Contaminant transport in aquifers: improving the determination of model parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sabino, C.V.S.; Moreira, R.M.; Lula, Z.L.; Chausson, Y.; Magalhaes, W.F.; Vianna, M.N.

    1998-01-01

    Parameters conditioning the migration behavior of cesium and mercury are measured with their tracers 137 Cs and 203 Hg in the laboratory, using both batch and column experiments. Batch tests were used to define the sorption isotherm characteristics. Also investigated were the influences of some test parameters, in particular those due to the volume of water to mass of soil ratio (V/m). A provisional relationship between V/m and the distribution coefficient, K d , has been advanced, and a procedure to estimate K d 's valid for environmental values of the ratio V/m has been suggested. Column tests provided the parameters for a transport model. A major problem to be dealt with in such tests is the collimation of the radioactivity probe. Besides mechanically optimizing the collimator, a deconvolution procedure has been suggested and tested, with statistical criteria, to filter off both noise and spurious tracer signals. Correction procedures for the integrating effect introduced by sampling at the exit of columns have also been developed. These techniques may be helpful in increasing the accuracy required in the measurement of parameters conditioning contaminant migration in soils, thus allowing more reliable predictions based on mathematical model applications. (author)

  14. Progressive Learning of Topic Modeling Parameters: A Visual Analytics Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Assady, Mennatallah; Sevastjanova, Rita; Sperrle, Fabian; Keim, Daniel; Collins, Christopher

    2018-01-01

    Topic modeling algorithms are widely used to analyze the thematic composition of text corpora but remain difficult to interpret and adjust. Addressing these limitations, we present a modular visual analytics framework, tackling the understandability and adaptability of topic models through a user-driven reinforcement learning process which does not require a deep understanding of the underlying topic modeling algorithms. Given a document corpus, our approach initializes two algorithm configurations based on a parameter space analysis that enhances document separability. We abstract the model complexity in an interactive visual workspace for exploring the automatic matching results of two models, investigating topic summaries, analyzing parameter distributions, and reviewing documents. The main contribution of our work is an iterative decision-making technique in which users provide a document-based relevance feedback that allows the framework to converge to a user-endorsed topic distribution. We also report feedback from a two-stage study which shows that our technique results in topic model quality improvements on two independent measures.

  15. Propagation channel characterization, parameter estimation, and modeling for wireless communications

    CERN Document Server

    Yin, Xuefeng

    2016-01-01

    Thoroughly covering channel characteristics and parameters, this book provides the knowledge needed to design various wireless systems, such as cellular communication systems, RFID and ad hoc wireless communication systems. It gives a detailed introduction to aspects of channels before presenting the novel estimation and modelling techniques which can be used to achieve accurate models. To systematically guide readers through the topic, the book is organised in three distinct parts. The first part covers the fundamentals of the characterization of propagation channels, including the conventional single-input single-output (SISO) propagation channel characterization as well as its extension to multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) cases. Part two focuses on channel measurements and channel data post-processing. Wideband channel measurements are introduced, including the equipment, technology and advantages and disadvantages of different data acquisition schemes. The channel parameter estimation methods are ...

  16. Empirical flow parameters : a tool for hydraulic model validity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asquith, William H.; Burley, Thomas E.; Cleveland, Theodore G.

    2013-01-01

    The objectives of this project were (1) To determine and present from existing data in Texas, relations between observed stream flow, topographic slope, mean section velocity, and other hydraulic factors, to produce charts such as Figure 1 and to produce empirical distributions of the various flow parameters to provide a methodology to "check if model results are way off!"; (2) To produce a statistical regional tool to estimate mean velocity or other selected parameters for storm flows or other conditional discharges at ungauged locations (most bridge crossings) in Texas to provide a secondary way to compare such values to a conventional hydraulic modeling approach. (3.) To present ancillary values such as Froude number, stream power, Rosgen channel classification, sinuosity, and other selected characteristics (readily determinable from existing data) to provide additional information to engineers concerned with the hydraulic-soil-foundation component of transportation infrastructure.

  17. Parameter discovery in stochastic biological models using simulated annealing and statistical model checking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Faraz; Jha, Sumit K; Jha, Susmit; Langmead, Christopher J

    2014-01-01

    Stochastic models are increasingly used to study the behaviour of biochemical systems. While the structure of such models is often readily available from first principles, unknown quantitative features of the model are incorporated into the model as parameters. Algorithmic discovery of parameter values from experimentally observed facts remains a challenge for the computational systems biology community. We present a new parameter discovery algorithm that uses simulated annealing, sequential hypothesis testing, and statistical model checking to learn the parameters in a stochastic model. We apply our technique to a model of glucose and insulin metabolism used for in-silico validation of artificial pancreata and demonstrate its effectiveness by developing parallel CUDA-based implementation for parameter synthesis in this model.

  18. Bayesian estimation of regularization parameters for deformable surface models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cunningham, G.S.; Lehovich, A.; Hanson, K.M.

    1999-01-01

    In this article the authors build on their past attempts to reconstruct a 3D, time-varying bolus of radiotracer from first-pass data obtained by the dynamic SPECT imager, FASTSPECT, built by the University of Arizona. The object imaged is a CardioWest total artificial heart. The bolus is entirely contained in one ventricle and its associated inlet and outlet tubes. The model for the radiotracer distribution at a given time is a closed surface parameterized by 482 vertices that are connected to make 960 triangles, with nonuniform intensity variations of radiotracer allowed inside the surface on a voxel-to-voxel basis. The total curvature of the surface is minimized through the use of a weighted prior in the Bayesian framework, as is the weighted norm of the gradient of the voxellated grid. MAP estimates for the vertices, interior intensity voxels and background count level are produced. The strength of the priors, or hyperparameters, are determined by maximizing the probability of the data given the hyperparameters, called the evidence. The evidence is calculated by first assuming that the posterior is approximately normal in the values of the vertices and voxels, and then by evaluating the integral of the multi-dimensional normal distribution. This integral (which requires evaluating the determinant of a covariance matrix) is computed by applying a recent algorithm from Bai et. al. that calculates the needed determinant efficiently. They demonstrate that the radiotracer is highly inhomogeneous in early time frames, as suspected in earlier reconstruction attempts that assumed a uniform intensity of radiotracer within the closed surface, and that the optimal choice of hyperparameters is substantially different for different time frames

  19. Estimation of Kinetic Parameters in an Automotive SCR Catalyst Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Åberg, Andreas; Widd, Anders; Abildskov, Jens

    2016-01-01

    be used directly for accurate full-scale transient simulations. The model was validated against full-scale data with an engine following the European Transient Cycle. The validation showed that the predictive capability for nitrogen oxides (NOx) was satisfactory. After re-estimation of the adsorption...... and desorption parameters with full-scale transient data, the fit for both NOx and NH3-slip was satisfactory....

  20. Mathematical models to predict rheological parameters of lateritic hydromixtures

    OpenAIRE

    Gabriel Hernández-Ramírez; Arístides A. Legrá-Lobaina; Beatriz Ramírez-Serrano; Liudmila Pérez-García

    2017-01-01

    The present work had as objective to establish mathematical models that allow the prognosis of the rheological parameters of the lateritic pulp at concentrations of solids from 35% to 48%, temperature of the preheated hydromixture superior to 82 ° C and number of mineral between 3 and 16. Four samples of lateritic pulp were used in the study at different process locations. The results allowed defining that the plastic properties of the lateritic pulp in the conditions of this study conform to...

  1. Mathematical properties and parameter estimation for transit compartment pharmacodynamic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yates, James W T

    2008-07-03

    One feature of recent research in pharmacodynamic modelling has been the move towards more mechanistically based model structures. However, in all of these models there are common sub-systems, such as feedback loops and time-delays, whose properties and contribution to the model behaviour merit some mathematical analysis. In this paper a common pharmacodynamic model sub-structure is considered: the linear transit compartment. These models have a number of interesting properties as the length of the cascade chain is increased. In the limiting case a pure time-delay is achieved [Milsum, J.H., 1966. Biological Control Systems Analysis. McGraw-Hill Book Company, New York] and the initial behaviour becoming increasingly sensitive to parameter value perturbation. It is also shown that the modelled drug effect is attenuated, though the duration of action is longer. Through this analysis the range of behaviours that such models are capable of reproducing are characterised. The properties of these models and the experimental requirements are discussed in order to highlight how mathematical analysis prior to experimentation can enhance the utility of mathematical modelling.

  2. Estimation Parameters And Modelling Zero Inflated Negative Binomial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cindy Cahyaning Astuti

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Regression analysis is used to determine relationship between one or several response variable (Y with one or several predictor variables (X. Regression model between predictor variables and the Poisson distributed response variable is called Poisson Regression Model. Since, Poisson Regression requires an equality between mean and variance, it is not appropriate to apply this model on overdispersion (variance is higher than mean. Poisson regression model is commonly used to analyze the count data. On the count data type, it is often to encounteredd some observations that have zero value with large proportion of zero value on the response variable (zero Inflation. Poisson regression can be used to analyze count data but it has not been able to solve problem of excess zero value on the response variable. An alternative model which is more suitable for overdispersion data and can solve the problem of excess zero value on the response variable is Zero Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB. In this research, ZINB is applied on the case of Tetanus Neonatorum in East Java. The aim of this research is to examine the likelihood function and to form an algorithm to estimate the parameter of ZINB and also applying ZINB model in the case of Tetanus Neonatorum in East Java. Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE method is used to estimate the parameter on ZINB and the likelihood function is maximized using Expectation Maximization (EM algorithm. Test results of ZINB regression model showed that the predictor variable have a partial significant effect at negative binomial model is the percentage of pregnant women visits and the percentage of maternal health personnel assisted, while the predictor variables that have a partial significant effect at zero inflation model is the percentage of neonatus visits.

  3. COMPREHENSIVE CHECK MEASUREMENT OF KEY PARAMETERS ON MODEL BELT CONVEYOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlastimil MONI

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Complex measurements of characteristic parameters realised on a long distance model belt conveyor are described. The main objective was to complete and combine the regular measurements of electric power on drives of belt conveyors operated in Czech opencast mines with measurements of other physical quantities and to gain by this way an image of their mutual relations and relations of quantities derived from them. The paper includes a short description and results of the measurements on an experimental model conveyor with a closed material transport way.

  4. Information Theoretic Tools for Parameter Fitting in Coarse Grained Models

    KAUST Repository

    Kalligiannaki, Evangelia

    2015-01-07

    We study the application of information theoretic tools for model reduction in the case of systems driven by stochastic dynamics out of equilibrium. The model/dimension reduction is considered by proposing parametrized coarse grained dynamics and finding the optimal parameter set for which the relative entropy rate with respect to the atomistic dynamics is minimized. The minimization problem leads to a generalization of the force matching methods to non equilibrium systems. A multiplicative noise example reveals the importance of the diffusion coefficient in the optimization problem.

  5. Surrogate based approaches to parameter inference in ocean models

    KAUST Repository

    Knio, Omar

    2016-01-06

    This talk discusses the inference of physical parameters using model surrogates. Attention is focused on the use of sampling schemes to build suitable representations of the dependence of the model response on uncertain input data. Non-intrusive spectral projections and regularized regressions are used for this purpose. A Bayesian inference formalism is then applied to update the uncertain inputs based on available measurements or observations. To perform the update, we consider two alternative approaches, based on the application of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods or of adjoint-based optimization techniques. We outline the implementation of these techniques to infer dependence of wind drag, bottom drag, and internal mixing coefficients.

  6. Surrogate based approaches to parameter inference in ocean models

    KAUST Repository

    Knio, Omar

    2016-01-01

    This talk discusses the inference of physical parameters using model surrogates. Attention is focused on the use of sampling schemes to build suitable representations of the dependence of the model response on uncertain input data. Non-intrusive spectral projections and regularized regressions are used for this purpose. A Bayesian inference formalism is then applied to update the uncertain inputs based on available measurements or observations. To perform the update, we consider two alternative approaches, based on the application of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods or of adjoint-based optimization techniques. We outline the implementation of these techniques to infer dependence of wind drag, bottom drag, and internal mixing coefficients.

  7. The Impact of Three Factors on the Recovery of Item Parameters for the Three-Parameter Logistic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kyung Yong; Lee, Won-Chan

    2017-01-01

    This article provides a detailed description of three factors (specification of the ability distribution, numerical integration, and frame of reference for the item parameter estimates) that might affect the item parameter estimation of the three-parameter logistic model, and compares five item calibration methods, which are combinations of the…

  8. Ordinary Mathematical Models in Calculating the Aviation GTE Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. A. Khoreva

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the analytical review results of the ordinary mathematical models of the operating process used to study aviation GTE parameters and characteristics at all stages of its creation and operation. Considers the mathematical models of the zero and the first level, which are mostly used when solving typical problems in calculating parameters and characteristics of engines.Presents a number of practical problems arising in designing aviation GTE for various applications.The application of mathematical models of the zero-level engine can be quite appropriate when the engine is considered as a component in the aircraft system to estimate its calculated individual flight performance or when modeling the flight cycle of the aircrafts of different purpose.The paper demonstrates that introduction of correction functions into the first-level mathematical models in solving typical problems (influence of the Reynolds number, characteristics deterioration of the units during the overhaul period of engine, as well as influence of the flow inhomogeneity at the inlet because of manufacturing tolerance, etc. enables providing a sufficient engineering estimate accuracy to reflect a realistic operating process in the engine and its elements.

  9. Applicability of genetic algorithms to parameter estimation of economic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcel Ševela

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper concentrates on capability of genetic algorithms for parameter estimation of non-linear economic models. In the paper we test the ability of genetic algorithms to estimate of parameters of demand function for durable goods and simultaneously search for parameters of genetic algorithm that lead to maximum effectiveness of the computation algorithm. The genetic algorithms connect deterministic iterative computation methods with stochastic methods. In the genteic aůgorithm approach each possible solution is represented by one individual, those life and lifes of all generations of individuals run under a few parameter of genetic algorithm. Our simulations resulted in optimal mutation rate of 15% of all bits in chromosomes, optimal elitism rate 20%. We can not set the optimal extend of generation, because it proves positive correlation with effectiveness of genetic algorithm in all range under research, but its impact is degreasing. The used genetic algorithm was sensitive to mutation rate at most, than to extend of generation. The sensitivity to elitism rate is not so strong.

  10. A Review of Distributed Parameter Groundwater Management Modeling Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorelick, Steven M.

    1983-04-01

    Models which solve the governing groundwater flow or solute transport equations in conjunction with optimization techniques, such as linear and quadratic programing, are powerful aquifer management tools. Groundwater management models fall in two general categories: hydraulics or policy evaluation and water allocation. Groundwater hydraulic management models enable the determination of optimal locations and pumping rates of numerous wells under a variety of restrictions placed upon local drawdown, hydraulic gradients, and water production targets. Groundwater policy evaluation and allocation models can be used to study the influence upon regional groundwater use of institutional policies such as taxes and quotas. Furthermore, fairly complex groundwater-surface water allocation problems can be handled using system decomposition and multilevel optimization. Experience from the few real world applications of groundwater optimization-management techniques is summarized. Classified separately are methods for groundwater quality management aimed at optimal waste disposal in the subsurface. This classification is composed of steady state and transient management models that determine disposal patterns in such a way that water quality is protected at supply locations. Classes of research missing from the literature are groundwater quality management models involving nonlinear constraints, models which join groundwater hydraulic and quality simulations with political-economic management considerations, and management models that include parameter uncertainty.

  11. Parameters of oscillation generation regions in open star cluster models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danilov, V. M.; Putkov, S. I.

    2017-07-01

    We determine the masses and radii of central regions of open star cluster (OCL) models with small or zero entropy production and estimate the masses of oscillation generation regions in clustermodels based on the data of the phase-space coordinates of stars. The radii of such regions are close to the core radii of the OCL models. We develop a new method for estimating the total OCL masses based on the cluster core mass, the cluster and cluster core radii, and radial distribution of stars. This method yields estimates of dynamical masses of Pleiades, Praesepe, and M67, which agree well with the estimates of the total masses of the corresponding clusters based on proper motions and spectroscopic data for cluster stars.We construct the spectra and dispersion curves of the oscillations of the field of azimuthal velocities v φ in OCL models. Weak, low-amplitude unstable oscillations of v φ develop in cluster models near the cluster core boundary, and weak damped oscillations of v φ often develop at frequencies close to the frequencies of more powerful oscillations, which may reduce the non-stationarity degree in OCL models. We determine the number and parameters of such oscillations near the cores boundaries of cluster models. Such oscillations points to the possible role that gradient instability near the core of cluster models plays in the decrease of the mass of the oscillation generation regions and production of entropy in the cores of OCL models with massive extended cores.

  12. Identifyability measures to select the parameters to be estimated in a solid-state fermentation distributed parameter model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silveira, Christian L; Mazutti, Marcio A; Salau, Nina P G

    2016-07-08

    Process modeling can lead to of advantages such as helping in process control, reducing process costs and product quality improvement. This work proposes a solid-state fermentation distributed parameter model composed by seven differential equations with seventeen parameters to represent the process. Also, parameters estimation with a parameters identifyability analysis (PIA) is performed to build an accurate model with optimum parameters. Statistical tests were made to verify the model accuracy with the estimated parameters considering different assumptions. The results have shown that the model assuming substrate inhibition better represents the process. It was also shown that eight from the seventeen original model parameters were nonidentifiable and better results were obtained with the removal of these parameters from the estimation procedure. Therefore, PIA can be useful to estimation procedure, since it may reduce the number of parameters that can be evaluated. Further, PIA improved the model results, showing to be an important procedure to be taken. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 32:905-917, 2016. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers.

  13. Tension-compression asymmetry modelling: strategies for anisotropy parameters identification.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barros Pedro

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This work presents details concerning the strategies and algorithms adopted in the fully implicit FE solver DD3IMP to model the orthotropic behavior of metallic sheets and the procedure for anisotropy parameters identification. The work is focused on the yield criterion developed by Cazacu, Plunkett and Barlat, 2006 [1], which accounts for both tension–compression asymmetry and orthotropic plastic behavior. The anisotropy parameters for a 2090-T3 aluminum alloy are identified accounting, or not, for the tension-compression asymmetry. The numerical simulation of a cup drawing is performed for this material, highlighting the importance of considering tension-compression asymmetry in the prediction of the earing profile, for materials with cubic structure, even if this phenomenon is relatively small.

  14. Parameter Estimation in Stochastic Grey-Box Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Niels Rode; Madsen, Henrik; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2004-01-01

    An efficient and flexible parameter estimation scheme for grey-box models in the sense of discretely, partially observed Ito stochastic differential equations with measurement noise is presented along with a corresponding software implementation. The estimation scheme is based on the extended...... Kalman filter and features maximum likelihood as well as maximum a posteriori estimation on multiple independent data sets, including irregularly sampled data sets and data sets with occasional outliers and missing observations. The software implementation is compared to an existing software tool...... and proves to have better performance both in terms of quality of estimates for nonlinear systems with significant diffusion and in terms of reproducibility. In particular, the new tool provides more accurate and more consistent estimates of the parameters of the diffusion term....

  15. Modelling Technical and Economic Parameters in Selection of Manufacturing Devices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naqib Daneshjo

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Sustainable science and technology development is also conditioned by continuous development of means of production which have a key role in structure of each production system. Mechanical nature of the means of production is complemented by controlling and electronic devices in context of intelligent industry. A selection of production machines for a technological process or technological project has so far been practically resolved, often only intuitively. With regard to increasing intelligence, the number of variable parameters that have to be considered when choosing a production device is also increasing. It is necessary to use computing techniques and decision making methods according to heuristic methods and more precise methodological procedures during the selection. The authors present an innovative model for optimization of technical and economic parameters in the selection of manufacturing devices for industry 4.0.

  16. Automated parameter estimation for biological models using Bayesian statistical model checking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Faraz; Langmead, Christopher J; Mi, Qi; Dutta-Moscato, Joyeeta; Vodovotz, Yoram; Jha, Sumit K

    2015-01-01

    Probabilistic models have gained widespread acceptance in the systems biology community as a useful way to represent complex biological systems. Such models are developed using existing knowledge of the structure and dynamics of the system, experimental observations, and inferences drawn from statistical analysis of empirical data. A key bottleneck in building such models is that some system variables cannot be measured experimentally. These variables are incorporated into the model as numerical parameters. Determining values of these parameters that justify existing experiments and provide reliable predictions when model simulations are performed is a key research problem. Using an agent-based model of the dynamics of acute inflammation, we demonstrate a novel parameter estimation algorithm by discovering the amount and schedule of doses of bacterial lipopolysaccharide that guarantee a set of observed clinical outcomes with high probability. We synthesized values of twenty-eight unknown parameters such that the parameterized model instantiated with these parameter values satisfies four specifications describing the dynamic behavior of the model. We have developed a new algorithmic technique for discovering parameters in complex stochastic models of biological systems given behavioral specifications written in a formal mathematical logic. Our algorithm uses Bayesian model checking, sequential hypothesis testing, and stochastic optimization to automatically synthesize parameters of probabilistic biological models.

  17. Identification of grid model parameters using synchrophasor measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boicea, Valentin; Albu, Mihaela [Politehnica University of Bucharest (Romania)

    2012-07-01

    Presently a critical element of the energy networks is represented by the active distribution grids, where generation intermittency and controllable loads contribute to a stochastic varability of the quantities characterizing the grid operation. The capability of controlling the electrical energy transfer is also limited by the incomplete knowledge of the detailed electrical model of each of the grid components. Asset management in distribution grids has to consider dynamic loads, while high loading of network sections might already have degraded some of the assets. Moreover, in case of functional microgrids, all elements need to be modelled accurately and an appropriate measurement layer enabling online control needs to be deployed. In this paper a method for online identification of the actual parameter values in grid electrical models is proposed. Laboratory results validating the proposed method are presented. (orig.)

  18. Dynamic systems models new methods of parameter and state estimation

    CERN Document Server

    2016-01-01

    This monograph is an exposition of a novel method for solving inverse problems, a method of parameter estimation for time series data collected from simulations of real experiments. These time series might be generated by measuring the dynamics of aircraft in flight, by the function of a hidden Markov model used in bioinformatics or speech recognition or when analyzing the dynamics of asset pricing provided by the nonlinear models of financial mathematics. Dynamic Systems Models demonstrates the use of algorithms based on polynomial approximation which have weaker requirements than already-popular iterative methods. Specifically, they do not require a first approximation of a root vector and they allow non-differentiable elements in the vector functions being approximated. The text covers all the points necessary for the understanding and use of polynomial approximation from the mathematical fundamentals, through algorithm development to the application of the method in, for instance, aeroplane flight dynamic...

  19. Luminescence model with quantum impact parameter for low energies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cruz G, H.S.; Michaelian, K.; Galindo U, S.; Martinez D, A.; Belmont M, E.

    2000-01-01

    The analytical model of induced light production in scintillator materials by energetic ions proposed by Michaelian and Menchaca (M-M) adjusts very well the luminescence substance data in a wide energy interval of the incident ions (10-100 MeV). However at low energies, that is, under to 10 MeV, the experimental deviations of the predictions of M-M model, show that the causes may be certain physical effects, all they important at low energies, which were not considered. We have modified lightly the M-M model using the basic fact that the Quantum mechanics gives to a different limit for the quantum impact parameter instead of the classic approximation. (Author)

  20. Posterior fossa epidural hematoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kushner, M.J.; Luken, M.G. III

    1983-01-01

    CT demonstrated posterior fossa epidural hematoma in three patients with head trauma in whom this diagnosis was not clinically apparent. No patient was in stupor or coma and no patient experienced a lucid interval. Only one patient had signs referable to the posterior fossa. Two patients had occipital skull fracture disclosed by plain radiographs. CT revealed a unilateral biconvex hematoma in two cases, and a bilateral hematoma with supratentorial extension in the third. All patients underwent suboccipital craniectomy and recovered. Therapeutic success in these cases was facilitated by early CT and the rapid disclosure of the unsuspected posterior fossa lesions. CT showing contiguous hematoma below and above the tentorium cerebelli after posterior head trauma is highly suggestive of epidural hematoma arising from the posterior fossa. (orig.)

  1. Posterior urethral injuries associated with motorcycle accidents and pelvic trauma in adolescents: analysis of urethral lesions occurring prior to a bony fracture using a computerized finite-element model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bréaud, J; Montoro, J; Lecompte, J F; Valla, J S; Loeffler, J; Baqué, P; Brunet, C; Thollon, L

    2013-02-01

    Adolescent males involved in motorcycle accidents are particularly at risk for pelvic injury, which may provoke a posterior urethral injury. The aim of this study was to develop a model to analyze the association between injuries and fractures of the pelvic ring and the risk of posterior urethral injury. Based on experience with traffic accident modeling, a computerized finite-element model was extrapolated from a computerized tomography scan of a 15-year-old boy. The anatomic structures concerned in urethral and pelvic ring trauma were isolated, rendered in 3D and given biomechanical properties. The model was verified according to available experiments on pelvic ring trauma. To apply the model, we recreated three impact mechanisms on the pelvic ring: lateral impact, antero-posterior impact and a real car‒motorcycle accident situation (postero-lateral impact). In all three situations, stretching of the posterior urethra was identified prior to bony fracture visualization. Application of this model allowed us to analyze precisely the link between trauma of the pelvic ring and lesions of the posterior urethra. The results should help to establish guidelines for urethral catheterization in male adolescents in cases of pelvic trauma, even when no bony fracture is present, in order to prevent iatrogenic worsening of a misdiagnosed posterior urethral trauma. Copyright © 2011 Journal of Pediatric Urology Company. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Optimization of Experimental Model Parameter Identification for Energy Storage Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosario Morello

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The smart grid approach is envisioned to take advantage of all available modern technologies in transforming the current power system to provide benefits to all stakeholders in the fields of efficient energy utilisation and of wide integration of renewable sources. Energy storage systems could help to solve some issues that stem from renewable energy usage in terms of stabilizing the intermittent energy production, power quality and power peak mitigation. With the integration of energy storage systems into the smart grids, their accurate modeling becomes a necessity, in order to gain robust real-time control on the network, in terms of stability and energy supply forecasting. In this framework, this paper proposes a procedure to identify the values of the battery model parameters in order to best fit experimental data and integrate it, along with models of energy sources and electrical loads, in a complete framework which represents a real time smart grid management system. The proposed method is based on a hybrid optimisation technique, which makes combined use of a stochastic and a deterministic algorithm, with low computational burden and can therefore be repeated over time in order to account for parameter variations due to the battery’s age and usage.

  3. Bayesian parameter estimation for stochastic models of biological cell migration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieterich, Peter; Preuss, Roland

    2013-08-01

    Cell migration plays an essential role under many physiological and patho-physiological conditions. It is of major importance during embryonic development and wound healing. In contrast, it also generates negative effects during inflammation processes, the transmigration of tumors or the formation of metastases. Thus, a reliable quantification and characterization of cell paths could give insight into the dynamics of these processes. Typically stochastic models are applied where parameters are extracted by fitting models to the so-called mean square displacement of the observed cell group. We show that this approach has several disadvantages and problems. Therefore, we propose a simple procedure directly relying on the positions of the cell's trajectory and the covariance matrix of the positions. It is shown that the covariance is identical with the spatial aging correlation function for the supposed linear Gaussian models of Brownian motion with drift and fractional Brownian motion. The technique is applied and illustrated with simulated data showing a reliable parameter estimation from single cell paths.

  4. Model parameters for representative wetland plant functional groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Amber S.; Kiniry, James R.; Mushet, David M.; Smith, Loren M.; McMurry, Scott T.; Attebury, Kelly; Lang, Megan; McCarty, Gregory W.; Shaffer, Jill A.; Effland, William R.; Johnson, Mari-Vaughn V.

    2017-01-01

    Wetlands provide a wide variety of ecosystem services including water quality remediation, biodiversity refugia, groundwater recharge, and floodwater storage. Realistic estimation of ecosystem service benefits associated with wetlands requires reasonable simulation of the hydrology of each site and realistic simulation of the upland and wetland plant growth cycles. Objectives of this study were to quantify leaf area index (LAI), light extinction coefficient (k), and plant nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K) concentrations in natural stands of representative plant species for some major plant functional groups in the United States. Functional groups in this study were based on these parameters and plant growth types to enable process-based modeling. We collected data at four locations representing some of the main wetland regions of the United States. At each site, we collected on-the-ground measurements of fraction of light intercepted, LAI, and dry matter within the 2013–2015 growing seasons. Maximum LAI and k variables showed noticeable variations among sites and years, while overall averages and functional group averages give useful estimates for multisite simulation modeling. Variation within each species gives an indication of what can be expected in such natural ecosystems. For P and K, the concentrations from highest to lowest were spikerush (Eleocharis macrostachya), reed canary grass (Phalaris arundinacea), smartweed (Polygonum spp.), cattail (Typha spp.), and hardstem bulrush (Schoenoplectus acutus). Spikerush had the highest N concentration, followed by smartweed, bulrush, reed canary grass, and then cattail. These parameters will be useful for the actual wetland species measured and for the wetland plant functional groups they represent. These parameters and the associated process-based models offer promise as valuable tools for evaluating environmental benefits of wetlands and for evaluating impacts of various agronomic practices in

  5. Application of a free parameter model to plastic scintillation samples

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tarancon Sanz, Alex, E-mail: alex.tarancon@ub.edu [Departament de Quimica Analitica, Universitat de Barcelona, Diagonal 647, E-08028 Barcelona (Spain); Kossert, Karsten, E-mail: Karsten.Kossert@ptb.de [Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt (PTB), Bundesallee 100, 38116 Braunschweig (Germany)

    2011-08-21

    In liquid scintillation (LS) counting, the CIEMAT/NIST efficiency tracing method and the triple-to-double coincidence ratio (TDCR) method have proved their worth for reliable activity measurements of a number of radionuclides. In this paper, an extended approach to apply a free-parameter model to samples containing a mixture of solid plastic scintillation microspheres and radioactive aqueous solutions is presented. Several beta-emitting radionuclides were measured in a TDCR system at PTB. For the application of the free parameter model, the energy loss in the aqueous phase must be taken into account, since this portion of the particle energy does not contribute to the creation of scintillation light. The energy deposit in the aqueous phase is determined by means of Monte Carlo calculations applying the PENELOPE software package. To this end, great efforts were made to model the geometry of the samples. Finally, a new geometry parameter was defined, which was determined by means of a tracer radionuclide with known activity. This makes the analysis of experimental TDCR data of other radionuclides possible. The deviations between the determined activity concentrations and reference values were found to be lower than 3%. The outcome of this research work is also important for a better understanding of liquid scintillation counting. In particular the influence of (inverse) micelles, i.e. the aqueous spaces embedded in the organic scintillation cocktail, can be investigated. The new approach makes clear that it is important to take the energy loss in the aqueous phase into account. In particular for radionuclides emitting low-energy electrons (e.g. M-Auger electrons from {sup 125}I), this effect can be very important.

  6. Microbial Communities Model Parameter Calculation for TSPA/SR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D. Jolley

    2001-01-01

    This calculation has several purposes. First the calculation reduces the information contained in ''Committed Materials in Repository Drifts'' (BSC 2001a) to useable parameters required as input to MING V1.O (CRWMS M and O 1998, CSCI 30018 V1.O) for calculation of the effects of potential in-drift microbial communities as part of the microbial communities model. The calculation is intended to replace the parameters found in Attachment II of the current In-Drift Microbial Communities Model revision (CRWMS M and O 2000c) with the exception of Section 11-5.3. Second, this calculation provides the information necessary to supercede the following DTN: M09909SPAMING1.003 and replace it with a new qualified dataset (see Table 6.2-1). The purpose of this calculation is to create the revised qualified parameter input for MING that will allow ΔG (Gibbs Free Energy) to be corrected for long-term changes to the temperature of the near-field environment. Calculated herein are the quadratic or second order regression relationships that are used in the energy limiting calculations to potential growth of microbial communities in the in-drift geochemical environment. Third, the calculation performs an impact review of a new DTN: M00012MAJIONIS.000 that is intended to replace the currently cited DTN: GS9809083 12322.008 for water chemistry data used in the current ''In-Drift Microbial Communities Model'' revision (CRWMS M and O 2000c). Finally, the calculation updates the material lifetimes reported on Table 32 in section 6.5.2.3 of the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' AMR (CRWMS M and O 2000c) based on the inputs reported in BSC (2001a). Changes include adding new specified materials and updating old materials information that has changed

  7. Lumped-parameter fuel rod model for rapid thermal transients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perkins, K.R.; Ramshaw, J.D.

    1975-07-01

    The thermal behavior of fuel rods during simulated accident conditions is extremely sensitive to the heat transfer coefficient which is, in turn, very sensitive to the cladding surface temperature and the fluid conditions. The development of a semianalytical, lumped-parameter fuel rod model which is intended to provide accurate calculations, in a minimum amount of computer time, of the thermal response of fuel rods during a simulated loss-of-coolant accident is described. The results show good agreement with calculations from a comprehensive fuel-rod code (FRAP-T) currently in use at Aerojet Nuclear Company

  8. Model atmospheres and parameters of central stars of planetary nebulae

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patriarchi, P.; Cerruti-sola, M.; Perinotto, M.

    1989-01-01

    Non-LTE hydrogen and helium model atmospheres have been obtained for temperatures and gravities relevant to the central stars of planetary nebulae. Low-resolution and high-resolution observations obtained by the IUE satellite have been used along with optical data to determine Zanstra temperatures of the central stars of NGC 1535, NGC 6210, NGC 7009, IC 418, and IC 4593. Comparison of the observed stellar continuum of these stars with theoretical results allowed further information on the stellar temperature to be derived. The final temperatures are used to calculate accurate stellar parameters. 62 refs

  9. Modelled basic parameters for semi-industrial irradiation plant design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mangussi, J.

    2009-01-01

    The basic parameters of an irradiation plant design are the total activity, the product uniformity ratio and the efficiency process. The target density, the minimum dose required and the throughput depends on the use to which the irradiator will be put at. In this work, a model for calculating the specific dose rate at several depths in an infinite homogeneous medium produced by a slab source irradiator is presented. The product minimum dose rate for a set of target thickness is obtained. The design method steps are detailed and an illustrative example is presented. (author)

  10. Parameter Identification for Nonlinear Circuit Models of Power BAW Resonator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CONSTANTINESCU, F.

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The large signal operation of the bulk acoustic wave (BAW resonators is characterized by the amplitude-frequency effect and the intermodulation effect. The measurement of these effects, together with that of the small signal frequency characteristic, are used in this paper for the parameter identification of the nonlinear circuit models developed previously by authors. As the resonator has been connected to the measurement bench by wire bonding, the parasitic elements of this connection have been taken into account, being estimated solving some electrical and magnetic field problems.

  11. Empirically modelled Pc3 activity based on solar wind parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Heilig

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available It is known that under certain solar wind (SW/interplanetary magnetic field (IMF conditions (e.g. high SW speed, low cone angle the occurrence of ground-level Pc3–4 pulsations is more likely. In this paper we demonstrate that in the event of anomalously low SW particle density, Pc3 activity is extremely low regardless of otherwise favourable SW speed and cone angle. We re-investigate the SW control of Pc3 pulsation activity through a statistical analysis and two empirical models with emphasis on the influence of SW density on Pc3 activity. We utilise SW and IMF measurements from the OMNI project and ground-based magnetometer measurements from the MM100 array to relate SW and IMF measurements to the occurrence of Pc3 activity. Multiple linear regression and artificial neural network models are used in iterative processes in order to identify sets of SW-based input parameters, which optimally reproduce a set of Pc3 activity data. The inclusion of SW density in the parameter set significantly improves the models. Not only the density itself, but other density related parameters, such as the dynamic pressure of the SW, or the standoff distance of the magnetopause work equally well in the model. The disappearance of Pc3s during low-density events can have at least four reasons according to the existing upstream wave theory: 1. Pausing the ion-cyclotron resonance that generates the upstream ultra low frequency waves in the absence of protons, 2. Weakening of the bow shock that implies less efficient reflection, 3. The SW becomes sub-Alfvénic and hence it is not able to sweep back the waves propagating upstream with the Alfvén-speed, and 4. The increase of the standoff distance of the magnetopause (and of the bow shock. Although the models cannot account for the lack of Pc3s during intervals when the SW density is extremely low, the resulting sets of optimal model inputs support the generation of mid latitude Pc3 activity predominantly through

  12. Modelling of bio-optical parameters of open ocean waters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vadim N. Pelevin

    2001-12-01

    Full Text Available An original method for estimating the concentration of chlorophyll pigments, absorption of yellow substance and absorption of suspended matter without pigments and yellow substance in detritus using spectral diffuse attenuation coefficient for downwelling irradiance and irradiance reflectance data has been applied to sea waters of different types in the open ocean (case 1. Using the effective numerical single parameter classification with the water type optical index m as a parameter over the whole range of the open ocean waters, the calculations have been carried out and the light absorption spectra of sea waters tabulated. These spectra are used to optimize the absorption models and thus to estimate the concentrations of the main admixtures in sea water. The value of m can be determined from direct measurements of the downward irradiance attenuation coefficient at 500 nm or calculated from remote sensing data using the regressions given in the article. The sea water composition can then be readily estimated from the tables given for any open ocean area if that one parameter m characterizing the basin is known.

  13. Application of regression model on stream water quality parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suleman, M.; Maqbool, F.; Malik, A.H.; Bhatti, Z.A.

    2012-01-01

    Statistical analysis was conducted to evaluate the effect of solid waste leachate from the open solid waste dumping site of Salhad on the stream water quality. Five sites were selected along the stream. Two sites were selected prior to mixing of leachate with the surface water. One was of leachate and other two sites were affected with leachate. Samples were analyzed for pH, water temperature, electrical conductivity (EC), total dissolved solids (TDS), Biological oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), dissolved oxygen (DO) and total bacterial load (TBL). In this study correlation coefficient r among different water quality parameters of various sites were calculated by using Pearson model and then average of each correlation between two parameters were also calculated, which shows TDS and EC and pH and BOD have significantly increasing r value, while temperature and TDS, temp and EC, DO and BL, DO and COD have decreasing r value. Single factor ANOVA at 5% level of significance was used which shows EC, TDS, TCL and COD were significantly differ among various sites. By the application of these two statistical approaches TDS and EC shows strongly positive correlation because the ions from the dissolved solids in water influence the ability of that water to conduct an electrical current. These two parameters significantly vary among 5 sites which are further confirmed by using linear regression. (author)

  14. Visual attention in posterior stroke

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fabricius, Charlotte; Petersen, Anders; Iversen, Helle K

    Objective: Impaired visual attention is common following strokes in the territory of the middle cerebral artery, particularly in the right hemisphere. However, attentional effects of more posterior lesions are less clear. The aim of this study was to characterize visual processing speed...... and apprehension span following posterior cerebral artery (PCA) stroke. We also relate these attentional parameters to visual word recognition, as previous studies have suggested that reduced visual speed and span may explain pure alexia. Methods: Nine patients with MR-verified focal lesions in the PCA......-territory (four left PCA; four right PCA; one bilateral, all >1 year post stroke) were compared to 25 controls using single case statistics. Visual attention was characterized by a whole report paradigm allowing for hemifield-specific speed and span measurements. We also characterized visual field defects...

  15. Parameter identification and global sensitivity analysis of Xin'anjiang model using meta-modeling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-meng Song

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Parameter identification, model calibration, and uncertainty quantification are important steps in the model-building process, and are necessary for obtaining credible results and valuable information. Sensitivity analysis of hydrological model is a key step in model uncertainty quantification, which can identify the dominant parameters, reduce the model calibration uncertainty, and enhance the model optimization efficiency. There are, however, some shortcomings in classical approaches, including the long duration of time and high computation cost required to quantitatively assess the sensitivity of a multiple-parameter hydrological model. For this reason, a two-step statistical evaluation framework using global techniques is presented. It is based on (1 a screening method (Morris for qualitative ranking of parameters, and (2 a variance-based method integrated with a meta-model for quantitative sensitivity analysis, i.e., the Sobol method integrated with the response surface model (RSMSobol. First, the Morris screening method was used to qualitatively identify the parameters' sensitivity, and then ten parameters were selected to quantify the sensitivity indices. Subsequently, the RSMSobol method was used to quantify the sensitivity, i.e., the first-order and total sensitivity indices based on the response surface model (RSM were calculated. The RSMSobol method can not only quantify the sensitivity, but also reduce the computational cost, with good accuracy compared to the classical approaches. This approach will be effective and reliable in the global sensitivity analysis of a complex large-scale distributed hydrological model.

  16. Insight into model mechanisms through automatic parameter fitting: a new methodological framework for model development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tøndel, Kristin; Niederer, Steven A; Land, Sander; Smith, Nicolas P

    2014-05-20

    Striking a balance between the degree of model complexity and parameter identifiability, while still producing biologically feasible simulations using modelling is a major challenge in computational biology. While these two elements of model development are closely coupled, parameter fitting from measured data and analysis of model mechanisms have traditionally been performed separately and sequentially. This process produces potential mismatches between model and data complexities that can compromise the ability of computational frameworks to reveal mechanistic insights or predict new behaviour. In this study we address this issue by presenting a generic framework for combined model parameterisation, comparison of model alternatives and analysis of model mechanisms. The presented methodology is based on a combination of multivariate metamodelling (statistical approximation of the input-output relationships of deterministic models) and a systematic zooming into biologically feasible regions of the parameter space by iterative generation of new experimental designs and look-up of simulations in the proximity of the measured data. The parameter fitting pipeline includes an implicit sensitivity analysis and analysis of parameter identifiability, making it suitable for testing hypotheses for model reduction. Using this approach, under-constrained model parameters, as well as the coupling between parameters within the model are identified. The methodology is demonstrated by refitting the parameters of a published model of cardiac cellular mechanics using a combination of measured data and synthetic data from an alternative model of the same system. Using this approach, reduced models with simplified expressions for the tropomyosin/crossbridge kinetics were found by identification of model components that can be omitted without affecting the fit to the parameterising data. Our analysis revealed that model parameters could be constrained to a standard deviation of on

  17. Hybrid artificial bee colony algorithm for parameter optimization of five-parameter bidirectional reflectance distribution function model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qianqian; Zhao, Jing; Gong, Yong; Hao, Qun; Peng, Zhong

    2017-11-20

    A hybrid artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm inspired by the best-so-far solution and bacterial chemotaxis was introduced to optimize the parameters of the five-parameter bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) model. To verify the performance of the hybrid ABC algorithm, we measured BRDF of three kinds of samples and simulated the undetermined parameters of the five-parameter BRDF model using the hybrid ABC algorithm and the genetic algorithm, respectively. The experimental results demonstrate that the hybrid ABC algorithm outperforms the genetic algorithm in convergence speed, accuracy, and time efficiency under the same conditions.

  18. Convergence of surface diffusion parameters with model crystal size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Jennifer M.; Voter, Arthur F.

    1994-07-01

    A study of the variation in the calculated quantities for adatom diffusion with respect to the size of the model crystal is presented. The reported quantities include surface diffusion barrier heights, pre-exponential factors, and dynamical correction factors. Embedded atom method (EAM) potentials were used throughout this effort. Both the layer size and the depth of the crystal were found to influence the values of the Arrhenius factors significantly. In particular, exchange type mechanisms required a significantly larger model than standard hopping mechanisms to determine adatom diffusion barriers of equivalent accuracy. The dynamical events that govern the corrections to transition state theory (TST) did not appear to be as sensitive to crystal depth. Suitable criteria for the convergence of the diffusion parameters with regard to the rate properties are illustrated.

  19. A distributed parameter wire model for transient electrical discharges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maier, W.B. II; Kadish, A.; Sutherland, C.D.; Robiscoe, R.T.

    1990-01-01

    A model for freely propagating transient electrical discharges, such as lightning and punch-through arcs, is developed in this paper. We describe the electromagnetic fields by Maxwell's equations and we represent the interaction of electric fields with the medium to produce current by ∂J/∂t=ω 2 (E-E*J)/4π, where ω and E* are parameters characteristic of the medium, J≡current density, and J≡J/|J|. We illustrate the properties of this model for small-diameter, guided, cylindrically symmetric discharges. Analytic, numerical, and approximate solutions are given for special cases. The model describes, in a new and comprehensive fashion, certain macroscopic discharge properties, such as threshold behavior, quenching and reignition, path tortuosity, discharge termination with nonzero charge density remaining along the discharge path, and other experimentally observed discharge phenomena. Fields, current densities, and charge densities are quantitatively determined from given boundary and initial conditions. We suggest that many macroscopic discharge properties are properly explained by the model as electromagnetic phenomena, and we discuss extensions of the model to include chemistry, principally ionization and recombination

  20. Diabatic models with transferrable parameters for generalized chemical reactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reimers, Jeffrey R; McKemmish, Laura K; McKenzie, Ross H; Hush, Noel S

    2017-01-01

    Diabatic models applied to adiabatic electron-transfer theory yield many equations involving just a few parameters that connect ground-state geometries and vibration frequencies to excited-state transition energies and vibration frequencies to the rate constants for electron-transfer reactions, utilizing properties of the conical-intersection seam linking the ground and excited states through the Pseudo Jahn-Teller effect. We review how such simplicity in basic understanding can also be obtained for general chemical reactions. The key feature that must be recognized is that electron-transfer (or hole transfer) processes typically involve one electron (hole) moving between two orbitals, whereas general reactions typically involve two electrons or even four electrons for processes in aromatic molecules. Each additional moving electron leads to new high-energy but interrelated conical-intersection seams that distort the shape of the critical lowest-energy seam. Recognizing this feature shows how conical-intersection descriptors can be transferred between systems, and how general chemical reactions can be compared using the same set of simple parameters. Mathematical relationships are presented depicting how different conical-intersection seams relate to each other, showing that complex problems can be reduced into an effective interaction between the ground-state and a critical excited state to provide the first semi-quantitative implementation of Shaik’s “twin state” concept. Applications are made (i) demonstrating why the chemistry of the first-row elements is qualitatively so different to that of the second and later rows, (ii) deducing the bond-length alternation in hypothetical cyclohexatriene from the observed UV spectroscopy of benzene, (iii) demonstrating that commonly used procedures for modelling surface hopping based on inclusion of only the first-derivative correction to the Born-Oppenheimer approximation are valid in no region of the chemical

  1. Standard model parameters and the search for new physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marciano, W.J.

    1988-04-01

    In these lectures, my aim is to present an up-to-date status report on the standard model and some key tests of electroweak unification. Within that context, I also discuss how and where hints of new physics may emerge. To accomplish those goals, I have organized my presentation as follows: I discuss the standard model parameters with particular emphasis on the gauge coupling constants and vector boson masses. Examples of new physics appendages are also briefly commented on. In addition, because these lectures are intended for students and thus somewhat pedagogical, I have included an appendix on dimensional regularization and a simple computational example that employs that technique. Next, I focus on weak charged current phenomenology. Precision tests of the standard model are described and up-to-date values for the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa (CKM) mixing matrix parameters are presented. Constraints implied by those tests for a 4th generation, supersymmetry, extra Z/prime/ bosons, and compositeness are also discussed. I discuss weak neutral current phenomenology and the extraction of sin/sup 2/ /theta//sub W/ from experiment. The results presented there are based on a recently completed global analysis of all existing data. I have chosen to concentrate that discussion on radiative corrections, the effect of a heavy top quark mass, and implications for grand unified theories (GUTS). The potential for further experimental progress is also commented on. I depart from the narrowest version of the standard model and discuss effects of neutrino masses and mixings. I have chosen to concentrate on oscillations, the Mikheyev-Smirnov- Wolfenstein (MSW) effect, and electromagnetic properties of neutrinos. On the latter topic, I will describe some recent work on resonant spin-flavor precession. Finally, I conclude with a prospectus on hopes for the future. 76 refs

  2. Combined Estimation of Hydrogeologic Conceptual Model, Parameter, and Scenario Uncertainty with Application to Uranium Transport at the Hanford Site 300 Area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyer, Philip D.; Ye, Ming; Rockhold, Mark L.; Neuman, Shlomo P.; Cantrell, Kirk J.

    2007-07-30

    This report to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) describes the development and application of a methodology to systematically and quantitatively assess predictive uncertainty in groundwater flow and transport modeling that considers the combined impact of hydrogeologic uncertainties associated with the conceptual-mathematical basis of a model, model parameters, and the scenario to which the model is applied. The methodology is based on a n extension of a Maximum Likelihood implementation of Bayesian Model Averaging. Model uncertainty is represented by postulating a discrete set of alternative conceptual models for a site with associated prior model probabilities that reflect a belief about the relative plausibility of each model based on its apparent consistency with available knowledge and data. Posterior model probabilities are computed and parameter uncertainty is estimated by calibrating each model to observed system behavior; prior parameter estimates are optionally included. Scenario uncertainty is represented as a discrete set of alternative future conditions affecting boundary conditions, source/sink terms, or other aspects of the models, with associated prior scenario probabilities. A joint assessment of uncertainty results from combining model predictions computed under each scenario using as weight the posterior model and prior scenario probabilities. The uncertainty methodology was applied to modeling of groundwater flow and uranium transport at the Hanford Site 300 Area. Eight alternative models representing uncertainty in the hydrogeologic and geochemical properties as well as the temporal variability were considered. Two scenarios represent alternative future behavior of the Columbia River adjacent to the site were considered. The scenario alternatives were implemented in the models through the boundary conditions. Results demonstrate the feasibility of applying a comprehensive uncertainty assessment to large-scale, detailed groundwater flow

  3. Performance Analysis of Different NeQuick Ionospheric Model Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    WANG Ningbo

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Galileo adopts NeQuick model for single-frequency ionospheric delay corrections. For the standard operation of Galileo, NeQuick model is driven by the effective ionization level parameter Az instead of the solar activity level index, and the three broadcast ionospheric coefficients are determined by a second-polynomial through fitting the Az values estimated from globally distributed Galileo Sensor Stations (GSS. In this study, the processing strategies for the estimation of NeQuick ionospheric coefficients are discussed and the characteristics of the NeQuick coefficients are also analyzed. The accuracy of Global Position System (GPS broadcast Klobuchar, original NeQuick2 and fitted NeQuickC as well as Galileo broadcast NeQuickG models is evaluated over the continental and oceanic regions, respectively, in comparison with the ionospheric total electron content (TEC provided by global ionospheric maps (GIM, GPS test stations and JASON-2 altimeter. The results show that NeQuickG can mitigate ionospheric delay by 54.2%~65.8% on a global scale, and NeQuickC can correct for 71.1%~74.2% of the ionospheric delay. NeQuick2 performs at the same level with NeQuickG, which is a bit better than that of GPS broadcast Klobuchar model.

  4. Exploring parameter constraints on quintessential dark energy: The exponential model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bozek, Brandon; Abrahamse, Augusta; Albrecht, Andreas; Barnard, Michael

    2008-01-01

    We present an analysis of a scalar field model of dark energy with an exponential potential using the Dark Energy Task Force (DETF) simulated data models. Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling techniques we examine the ability of each simulated data set to constrain the parameter space of the exponential potential for data sets based on a cosmological constant and a specific exponential scalar field model. We compare our results with the constraining power calculated by the DETF using their 'w 0 -w a ' parametrization of the dark energy. We find that respective increases in constraining power from one stage to the next produced by our analysis give results consistent with DETF results. To further investigate the potential impact of future experiments, we also generate simulated data for an exponential model background cosmology which cannot be distinguished from a cosmological constant at DETF 'Stage 2', and show that for this cosmology good DETF Stage 4 data would exclude a cosmological constant by better than 3σ

  5. ORBSIM- ESTIMATING GEOPHYSICAL MODEL PARAMETERS FROM PLANETARY GRAVITY DATA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sjogren, W. L.

    1994-01-01

    The ORBSIM program was developed for the accurate extraction of geophysical model parameters from Doppler radio tracking data acquired from orbiting planetary spacecraft. The model of the proposed planetary structure is used in a numerical integration of the spacecraft along simulated trajectories around the primary body. Using line of sight (LOS) Doppler residuals, ORBSIM applies fast and efficient modelling and optimization procedures which avoid the traditional complex dynamic reduction of data. ORBSIM produces quantitative geophysical results such as size, depth, and mass. ORBSIM has been used extensively to investigate topographic features on the Moon, Mars, and Venus. The program has proven particulary suitable for modelling gravitational anomalies and mascons. The basic observable for spacecraft-based gravity data is the Doppler frequency shift of a transponded radio signal. The time derivative of this signal carries information regarding the gravity field acting on the spacecraft in the LOS direction (the LOS direction being the path between the spacecraft and the receiving station, either Earth or another satellite). There are many dynamic factors taken into account: earth rotation, solar radiation, acceleration from planetary bodies, tracking station time and location adjustments, etc. The actual trajectories of the spacecraft are simulated using least squares fitted to conic motion. The theoretical Doppler readings from the simulated orbits are compared to actual Doppler observations and another least squares adjustment is made. ORBSIM has three modes of operation: trajectory simulation, optimization, and gravity modelling. In all cases, an initial gravity model of curved and/or flat disks, harmonics, and/or a force table are required input. ORBSIM is written in FORTRAN 77 for batch execution and has been implemented on a DEC VAX 11/780 computer operating under VMS. This program was released in 1985.

  6. Application of multi-parameter chorus and plasmaspheric hiss wave models in radiation belt modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aryan, H.; Kang, S. B.; Balikhin, M. A.; Fok, M. C. H.; Agapitov, O. V.; Komar, C. M.; Kanekal, S. G.; Nagai, T.; Sibeck, D. G.

    2017-12-01

    Numerical simulation studies of the Earth's radiation belts are important to understand the acceleration and loss of energetic electrons. The Comprehensive Inner Magnetosphere-Ionosphere (CIMI) model along with many other radiation belt models require inputs for pitch angle, energy, and cross diffusion of electrons, due to chorus and plasmaspheric hiss waves. These parameters are calculated using statistical wave distribution models of chorus and plasmaspheric hiss amplitudes. In this study we incorporate recently developed multi-parameter chorus and plasmaspheric hiss wave models based on geomagnetic index and solar wind parameters. We perform CIMI simulations for two geomagnetic storms and compare the flux enhancement of MeV electrons with data from the Van Allen Probes and Akebono satellites. We show that the relativistic electron fluxes calculated with multi-parameter wave models resembles the observations more accurately than the relativistic electron fluxes calculated with single-parameter wave models. This indicates that wave models based on a combination of geomagnetic index and solar wind parameters are more effective as inputs to radiation belt models.

  7. Parameter estimation and hypothesis testing in linear models

    CERN Document Server

    Koch, Karl-Rudolf

    1999-01-01

    The necessity to publish the second edition of this book arose when its third German edition had just been published. This second English edition is there­ fore a translation of the third German edition of Parameter Estimation and Hypothesis Testing in Linear Models, published in 1997. It differs from the first English edition by the addition of a new chapter on robust estimation of parameters and the deletion of the section on discriminant analysis, which has been more completely dealt with by the author in the book Bayesian In­ ference with Geodetic Applications, Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg New York, 1990. Smaller additions and deletions have been incorporated, to im­ prove the text, to point out new developments or to eliminate errors which became apparent. A few examples have been also added. I thank Springer-Verlag for publishing this second edition and for the assistance in checking the translation, although the responsibility of errors remains with the author. I also want to express my thanks...

  8. Coupled 1D-2D hydrodynamic inundation model for sewer overflow: Influence of modeling parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adeniyi Ganiyu Adeogun

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents outcome of our investigation on the influence of modeling parameters on 1D-2D hydrodynamic inundation model for sewer overflow, developed through coupling of an existing 1D sewer network model (SWMM and 2D inundation model (BREZO. The 1D-2D hydrodynamic model was developed for the purpose of examining flood incidence due to surcharged water on overland surface. The investigation was carried out by performing sensitivity analysis on the developed model. For the sensitivity analysis, modeling parameters, such as mesh resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM resolution and roughness were considered. The outcome of the study shows the model is sensitive to changes in these parameters. The performance of the model is significantly influenced, by the Manning's friction value, the DEM resolution and the area of the triangular mesh. Also, changes in the aforementioned modeling parameters influence the Flood characteristics, such as the inundation extent, the flow depth and the velocity across the model domain. Keywords: Inundation, DEM, Sensitivity analysis, Model coupling, Flooding

  9. Parameters-related uncertainty in modeling sugar cane yield with an agro-Land Surface Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valade, A.; Ciais, P.; Vuichard, N.; Viovy, N.; Ruget, F.; Gabrielle, B.

    2012-12-01

    Agro-Land Surface Models (agro-LSM) have been developed from the coupling of specific crop models and large-scale generic vegetation models. They aim at accounting for the spatial distribution and variability of energy, water and carbon fluxes within soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum with a particular emphasis on how crop phenology and agricultural management practice influence the turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere, and the underlying water and carbon pools. A part of the uncertainty in these models is related to the many parameters included in the models' equations. In this study, we quantify the parameter-based uncertainty in the simulation of sugar cane biomass production with the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS on a multi-regional approach with data from sites in Australia, La Reunion and Brazil. First, the main source of uncertainty for the output variables NPP, GPP, and sensible heat flux (SH) is determined through a screening of the main parameters of the model on a multi-site basis leading to the selection of a subset of most sensitive parameters causing most of the uncertainty. In a second step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out on the parameters selected from the screening analysis at a regional scale. For this, a Monte-Carlo sampling method associated with the calculation of Partial Ranked Correlation Coefficients is used. First, we quantify the sensitivity of the output variables to individual input parameters on a regional scale for two regions of intensive sugar cane cultivation in Australia and Brazil. Then, we quantify the overall uncertainty in the simulation's outputs propagated from the uncertainty in the input parameters. Seven parameters are identified by the screening procedure as driving most of the uncertainty in the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS model output at all sites. These parameters control photosynthesis (optimal temperature of photosynthesis, optimal carboxylation rate), radiation interception (extinction coefficient), root

  10. Evaluation of the perceptual grouping parameter in the CTVA model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Cortijo

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The CODE Theory of Visual Attention (CTVA is a mathematical model explaining the effects of grouping by proximity and distance upon reaction times and accuracy of response with regard to elements in the visual display. The predictions of the theory agree quite acceptably in one and two dimensions (CTVA-2D with the experimental results (reaction times and accuracy of response. The difference between reaction-times for the compatible and incompatible responses, known as the responsecompatibility effect, is also acceptably predicted, except at small distances and high number of distractors. Further results using the same paradigm at even smaller distances have been now obtained, showing greater discrepancies. Then, we have introduced a method to evaluate the strength of sensory evidence (eta parameter, which takes grouping by similarity into account and minimizes these discrepancies.

  11. Meniscus maturation in the swine model: changes occurring along with anterior to posterior and medial to lateral aspect during growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Giancamillo, Alessia; Deponti, Daniela; Addis, Alessandro; Domeneghini, Cinzia; Peretti, Giuseppe M

    2014-01-01

    The meniscus plays important roles in knee function and mechanics and is characterized by a heterogeneous matrix composition. The changes in meniscus vascularization observed during growth suggest that the tissue-specific composition may be the result of a maturation process. This study has the aim to characterize the structural and biochemical variations that occur in the swine meniscus with age. To this purpose, menisci were collected from young and adult pigs and divided into different zones. In study 1, both lateral and medial menisci were divided into the anterior horn, the body and the posterior horn for the evaluation of glycosaminoglycans (GAGs), collagen 1 and 2 content. In study 2, the menisci were sectioned into the inner, the intermediate and the outer zones to determine the variations in the cell phenotype along with the inner–outer direction, through gene expression analysis. According to the results, the swine meniscus is characterized by an increasing enrichment in the cartilaginous component with age, with an increasing deposition in the anterior horn (GAGs and collagen 2; P meniscus maturation, suggesting a specific response of meniscal cells to the regional mechanical stimuli in the knee joint. PMID:25216283

  12. Examining the Functional Specification of Two-Parameter Model under Location and Scale Parameter Condition

    OpenAIRE

    Nakashima, Takahiro

    2006-01-01

    The functional specification of mean-standard deviation approach is examined under location and scale parameter condition. Firstly, the full set of restrictions imposed on the mean-standard deviation function under the location and scale parameter condition are made clear. Secondly, the examination based on the restrictions mentioned in the previous sentence derives the new properties of the mean-standard deviation function on the applicability of additive separability and the curvature of ex...

  13. Verification Techniques for Parameter Selection and Bayesian Model Calibration Presented for an HIV Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wentworth, Mami Tonoe

    Uncertainty quantification plays an important role when making predictive estimates of model responses. In this context, uncertainty quantification is defined as quantifying and reducing uncertainties, and the objective is to quantify uncertainties in parameter, model and measurements, and propagate the uncertainties through the model, so that one can make a predictive estimate with quantified uncertainties. Two of the aspects of uncertainty quantification that must be performed prior to propagating uncertainties are model calibration and parameter selection. There are several efficient techniques for these processes; however, the accuracy of these methods are often not verified. This is the motivation for our work, and in this dissertation, we present and illustrate verification frameworks for model calibration and parameter selection in the context of biological and physical models. First, HIV models, developed and improved by [2, 3, 8], describe the viral infection dynamics of an HIV disease. These are also used to make predictive estimates of viral loads and T-cell counts and to construct an optimal control for drug therapy. Estimating input parameters is an essential step prior to uncertainty quantification. However, not all the parameters are identifiable, implying that they cannot be uniquely determined by the observations. These unidentifiable parameters can be partially removed by performing parameter selection, a process in which parameters that have minimal impacts on the model response are determined. We provide verification techniques for Bayesian model calibration and parameter selection for an HIV model. As an example of a physical model, we employ a heat model with experimental measurements presented in [10]. A steady-state heat model represents a prototypical behavior for heat conduction and diffusion process involved in a thermal-hydraulic model, which is a part of nuclear reactor models. We employ this simple heat model to illustrate verification

  14. Modeling the outflow of liquid with initial supercritical parameters using the relaxation model for condensation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lezhnin Sergey

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The two-temperature model of the outflow from a vessel with initial supercritical parameters of medium has been realized. The model uses thermodynamic non-equilibrium relaxation approach to describe phase transitions. Based on a new asymptotic model for computing the relaxation time, the outflow of water with supercritical initial pressure and super- and subcritical temperatures has been calculated.

  15. Transient dynamic and modeling parameter sensitivity analysis of 1D solid oxide fuel cell model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huangfu, Yigeng; Gao, Fei; Abbas-Turki, Abdeljalil; Bouquain, David; Miraoui, Abdellatif

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • A multiphysics, 1D, dynamic SOFC model is developed. • The presented model is validated experimentally in eight different operating conditions. • Electrochemical and thermal dynamic transient time expressions are given in explicit forms. • Parameter sensitivity is discussed for different semi-empirical parameters in the model. - Abstract: In this paper, a multiphysics solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) dynamic model is developed by using a one dimensional (1D) modeling approach. The dynamic effects of double layer capacitance on the electrochemical domain and the dynamic effect of thermal capacity on thermal domain are thoroughly considered. The 1D approach allows the model to predict the non-uniform distributions of current density, gas pressure and temperature in SOFC during its operation. The developed model has been experimentally validated, under different conditions of temperature and gas pressure. Based on the proposed model, the explicit time constant expressions for different dynamic phenomena in SOFC have been given and discussed in detail. A parameters sensitivity study has also been performed and discussed by using statistical Multi Parameter Sensitivity Analysis (MPSA) method, in order to investigate the impact of parameters on the modeling accuracy

  16. Back to Normal! Gaussianizing posterior distributions for cosmological probes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuhmann, Robert L.; Joachimi, Benjamin; Peiris, Hiranya V.

    2014-05-01

    We present a method to map multivariate non-Gaussian posterior probability densities into Gaussian ones via nonlinear Box-Cox transformations, and generalizations thereof. This is analogous to the search for normal parameters in the CMB, but can in principle be applied to any probability density that is continuous and unimodal. The search for the optimally Gaussianizing transformation amongst the Box-Cox family is performed via a maximum likelihood formalism. We can judge the quality of the found transformation a posteriori: qualitatively via statistical tests of Gaussianity, and more illustratively by how well it reproduces the credible regions. The method permits an analytical reconstruction of the posterior from a sample, e.g. a Markov chain, and simplifies the subsequent joint analysis with other experiments. Furthermore, it permits the characterization of a non-Gaussian posterior in a compact and efficient way. The expression for the non-Gaussian posterior can be employed to find analytic formulae for the Bayesian evidence, and consequently be used for model comparison.

  17. Sensitivity of numerical dispersion modeling to explosive source parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baskett, R.L.; Cederwall, R.T.

    1991-01-01

    The calculation of downwind concentrations from non-traditional sources, such as explosions, provides unique challenges to dispersion models. The US Department of Energy has assigned the Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) the task of estimating the impact of accidental radiological releases to the atmosphere anywhere in the world. Our experience includes responses to over 25 incidents in the past 16 years, and about 150 exercises a year. Examples of responses to explosive accidents include the 1980 Titan 2 missile fuel explosion near Damascus, Arkansas and the hydrogen gas explosion in the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident. Based on judgment and experience, we frequently estimate the source geometry and the amount of toxic material aerosolized as well as its particle size distribution. To expedite our real-time response, we developed some automated algorithms and default assumptions about several potential sources. It is useful to know how well these algorithms perform against real-world measurements and how sensitive our dispersion model is to the potential range of input values. In this paper we present the algorithms we use to simulate explosive events, compare these methods with limited field data measurements, and analyze their sensitivity to input parameters. 14 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs

  18. Physical property parameter set for modeling ICPP aqueous wastes with ASPEN electrolyte NRTL model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schindler, R.E.

    1996-09-01

    The aqueous waste evaporators at the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant (ICPP) are being modeled using ASPEN software. The ASPEN software calculates chemical and vapor-liquid equilibria with activity coefficients calculated using the electrolyte Non-Random Two Liquid (NRTL) model for local excess Gibbs free energies of interactions between ions and molecules in solution. The use of the electrolyte NRTL model requires the determination of empirical parameters for the excess Gibbs free energies of the interactions between species in solution. This report covers the development of a set parameters, from literature data, for the use of the electrolyte NRTL model with the major solutes in the ICPP aqueous wastes

  19. Uncertainty Quantification of GEOS-5 L-band Radiative Transfer Model Parameters Using Bayesian Inference and SMOS Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeLannoy, Gabrielle J. M.; Reichle, Rolf H.; Vrugt, Jasper A.

    2013-01-01

    Uncertainties in L-band (1.4 GHz) radiative transfer modeling (RTM) affect the simulation of brightness temperatures (Tb) over land and the inversion of satellite-observed Tb into soil moisture retrievals. In particular, accurate estimates of the microwave soil roughness, vegetation opacity and scattering albedo for large-scale applications are difficult to obtain from field studies and often lack an uncertainty estimate. Here, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation method is used to determine satellite-scale estimates of RTM parameters and their posterior uncertainty by minimizing the misfit between long-term averages and standard deviations of simulated and observed Tb at a range of incidence angles, at horizontal and vertical polarization, and for morning and evening overpasses. Tb simulations are generated with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) and confronted with Tb observations from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission. The MCMC algorithm suggests that the relative uncertainty of the RTM parameter estimates is typically less than 25 of the maximum a posteriori density (MAP) parameter value. Furthermore, the actual root-mean-square-differences in long-term Tb averages and standard deviations are found consistent with the respective estimated total simulation and observation error standard deviations of m3.1K and s2.4K. It is also shown that the MAP parameter values estimated through MCMC simulation are in close agreement with those obtained with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO).

  20. Assigning probability distributions to input parameters of performance assessment models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mishra, Srikanta [INTERA Inc., Austin, TX (United States)

    2002-02-01

    This study presents an overview of various approaches for assigning probability distributions to input parameters and/or future states of performance assessment models. Specifically,three broad approaches are discussed for developing input distributions: (a) fitting continuous distributions to data, (b) subjective assessment of probabilities, and (c) Bayesian updating of prior knowledge based on new information. The report begins with a summary of the nature of data and distributions, followed by a discussion of several common theoretical parametric models for characterizing distributions. Next, various techniques are presented for fitting continuous distributions to data. These include probability plotting, method of moments, maximum likelihood estimation and nonlinear least squares analysis. The techniques are demonstrated using data from a recent performance assessment study for the Yucca Mountain project. Goodness of fit techniques are also discussed, followed by an overview of how distribution fitting is accomplished in commercial software packages. The issue of subjective assessment of probabilities is dealt with in terms of the maximum entropy distribution selection approach, as well as some common rules for codifying informal expert judgment. Formal expert elicitation protocols are discussed next, and are based primarily on the guidance provided by the US NRC. The Bayesian framework for updating prior distributions (beliefs) when new information becomes available is discussed. A simple numerical approach is presented for facilitating practical applications of the Bayes theorem. Finally, a systematic framework for assigning distributions is presented: (a) for the situation where enough data are available to define an empirical CDF or fit a parametric model to the data, and (b) to deal with the situation where only a limited amount of information is available.

  1. Assigning probability distributions to input parameters of performance assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishra, Srikanta

    2002-02-01

    This study presents an overview of various approaches for assigning probability distributions to input parameters and/or future states of performance assessment models. Specifically,three broad approaches are discussed for developing input distributions: (a) fitting continuous distributions to data, (b) subjective assessment of probabilities, and (c) Bayesian updating of prior knowledge based on new information. The report begins with a summary of the nature of data and distributions, followed by a discussion of several common theoretical parametric models for characterizing distributions. Next, various techniques are presented for fitting continuous distributions to data. These include probability plotting, method of moments, maximum likelihood estimation and nonlinear least squares analysis. The techniques are demonstrated using data from a recent performance assessment study for the Yucca Mountain project. Goodness of fit techniques are also discussed, followed by an overview of how distribution fitting is accomplished in commercial software packages. The issue of subjective assessment of probabilities is dealt with in terms of the maximum entropy distribution selection approach, as well as some common rules for codifying informal expert judgment. Formal expert elicitation protocols are discussed next, and are based primarily on the guidance provided by the US NRC. The Bayesian framework for updating prior distributions (beliefs) when new information becomes available is discussed. A simple numerical approach is presented for facilitating practical applications of the Bayes theorem. Finally, a systematic framework for assigning distributions is presented: (a) for the situation where enough data are available to define an empirical CDF or fit a parametric model to the data, and (b) to deal with the situation where only a limited amount of information is available

  2. Harnessing the theoretical foundations of the exponential and beta-Poisson dose-response models to quantify parameter uncertainty using Markov Chain Monte Carlo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Philip J; Pintar, Katarina D M; Fazil, Aamir M; Topp, Edward

    2013-09-01

    Dose-response models are the essential link between exposure assessment and computed risk values in quantitative microbial risk assessment, yet the uncertainty that is inherent to computed risks because the dose-response model parameters are estimated using limited epidemiological data is rarely quantified. Second-order risk characterization approaches incorporating uncertainty in dose-response model parameters can provide more complete information to decisionmakers by separating variability and uncertainty to quantify the uncertainty in computed risks. Therefore, the objective of this work is to develop procedures to sample from posterior distributions describing uncertainty in the parameters of exponential and beta-Poisson dose-response models using Bayes's theorem and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (in OpenBUGS). The theoretical origins of the beta-Poisson dose-response model are used to identify a decomposed version of the model that enables Bayesian analysis without the need to evaluate Kummer confluent hypergeometric functions. Herein, it is also established that the beta distribution in the beta-Poisson dose-response model cannot address variation among individual pathogens, criteria to validate use of the conventional approximation to the beta-Poisson model are proposed, and simple algorithms to evaluate actual beta-Poisson probabilities of infection are investigated. The developed MCMC procedures are applied to analysis of a case study data set, and it is demonstrated that an important region of the posterior distribution of the beta-Poisson dose-response model parameters is attributable to the absence of low-dose data. This region includes beta-Poisson models for which the conventional approximation is especially invalid and in which many beta distributions have an extreme shape with questionable plausibility. © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada 2013. Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of the Public Health Agency of Canada.

  3. Posterior capsule opacification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wormstone, I Michael; Wang, Lixin; Liu, Christopher S C

    2009-02-01

    Posterior Capsule Opacification (PCO) is the most common complication of cataract surgery. At present the only means of treating cataract is by surgical intervention, and this initially restores high visual quality. Unfortunately, PCO develops in a significant proportion of patients to such an extent that a secondary loss of vision occurs. A modern cataract operation generates a capsular bag, which comprises a proportion of the anterior and the entire posterior capsule. The bag remains in situ, partitions the aqueous and vitreous humours, and in the majority of cases, houses an intraocular lens. The production of a capsular bag following surgery permits a free passage of light along the visual axis through the transparent intraocular lens and thin acellular posterior capsule. However, on the remaining anterior capsule, lens epithelial cells stubbornly reside despite enduring the rigours of surgical trauma. This resilient group of cells then begin to re-colonise the denuded regions of the anterior capsule, encroach onto the intraocular lens surface, occupy regions of the outer anterior capsule and most importantly of all begin to colonise the previously cell-free posterior capsule. Cells continue to divide, begin to cover the posterior capsule and can ultimately encroach on the visual axis resulting in changes to the matrix and cell organization that can give rise to light scatter. This review will describe the biological mechanisms driving PCO progression and discuss the influence of IOL design, surgical techniques and putative drug therapies in regulating the rate and severity of PCO.

  4. GEMSFITS: Code package for optimization of geochemical model parameters and inverse modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miron, George D.; Kulik, Dmitrii A.; Dmytrieva, Svitlana V.; Wagner, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Tool for generating consistent parameters against various types of experiments. • Handles a large number of experimental data and parameters (is parallelized). • Has a graphical interface and can perform statistical analysis on the parameters. • Tested on fitting the standard state Gibbs free energies of aqueous Al species. • Example on fitting interaction parameters of mixing models and thermobarometry. - Abstract: GEMSFITS is a new code package for fitting internally consistent input parameters of GEM (Gibbs Energy Minimization) geochemical–thermodynamic models against various types of experimental or geochemical data, and for performing inverse modeling tasks. It consists of the gemsfit2 (parameter optimizer) and gfshell2 (graphical user interface) programs both accessing a NoSQL database, all developed with flexibility, generality, efficiency, and user friendliness in mind. The parameter optimizer gemsfit2 includes the GEMS3K chemical speciation solver ( (http://gems.web.psi.ch/GEMS3K)), which features a comprehensive suite of non-ideal activity- and equation-of-state models of solution phases (aqueous electrolyte, gas and fluid mixtures, solid solutions, (ad)sorption. The gemsfit2 code uses the robust open-source NLopt library for parameter fitting, which provides a selection between several nonlinear optimization algorithms (global, local, gradient-based), and supports large-scale parallelization. The gemsfit2 code can also perform comprehensive statistical analysis of the fitted parameters (basic statistics, sensitivity, Monte Carlo confidence intervals), thus supporting the user with powerful tools for evaluating the quality of the fits and the physical significance of the model parameters. The gfshell2 code provides menu-driven setup of optimization options (data selection, properties to fit and their constraints, measured properties to compare with computed counterparts, and statistics). The practical utility, efficiency, and

  5. Recommended direct simulation Monte Carlo collision model parameters for modeling ionized air transport processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swaminathan-Gopalan, Krishnan; Stephani, Kelly A., E-mail: ksteph@illinois.edu [Department of Mechanical Science and Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois 61801 (United States)

    2016-02-15

    A systematic approach for calibrating the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) collision model parameters to achieve consistency in the transport processes is presented. The DSMC collision cross section model parameters are calibrated for high temperature atmospheric conditions by matching the collision integrals from DSMC against ab initio based collision integrals that are currently employed in the Langley Aerothermodynamic Upwind Relaxation Algorithm (LAURA) and Data Parallel Line Relaxation (DPLR) high temperature computational fluid dynamics solvers. The DSMC parameter values are computed for the widely used Variable Hard Sphere (VHS) and the Variable Soft Sphere (VSS) models using the collision-specific pairing approach. The recommended best-fit VHS/VSS parameter values are provided over a temperature range of 1000-20 000 K for a thirteen-species ionized air mixture. Use of the VSS model is necessary to achieve consistency in transport processes of ionized gases. The agreement of the VSS model transport properties with the transport properties as determined by the ab initio collision integral fits was found to be within 6% in the entire temperature range, regardless of the composition of the mixture. The recommended model parameter values can be readily applied to any gas mixture involving binary collisional interactions between the chemical species presented for the specified temperature range.

  6. Spondylolisthesis and Posterior Instability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niggemann, P.; Beyer, H.K.; Frey, H.; Grosskurth, D.; Simons, P.; Kuchta, J.

    2009-01-01

    We present the case of a patient with a spondylolisthesis of L5 on S1 due to spondylolysis at the level L5/S1. The vertebral slip was fixed and no anterior instability was found. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in an upright MRI scanner, posterior instability at the level of the spondylolytic defect of L5 was demonstrated. A structure, probably the hypertrophic ligament flava, arising from the spondylolytic defect was displaced toward the L5 nerve root, and a bilateral contact of the displaced structure with the L5 nerve root was shown in extension of the spine. To our knowledge, this is the first case described of posterior instability in patients with spondylolisthesis. The clinical implications of posterior instability are unknown; however, it is thought that this disorder is common and that it can only be diagnosed using upright MRI

  7. Spondylolisthesis and Posterior Instability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Niggemann, P.; Beyer, H.K.; Frey, H.; Grosskurth, D. (Privatpraxis fuer Upright MRT, Koeln (Germany)); Simons, P.; Kuchta, J. (Media Park Klinik, Koeln (Germany))

    2009-04-15

    We present the case of a patient with a spondylolisthesis of L5 on S1 due to spondylolysis at the level L5/S1. The vertebral slip was fixed and no anterior instability was found. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in an upright MRI scanner, posterior instability at the level of the spondylolytic defect of L5 was demonstrated. A structure, probably the hypertrophic ligament flava, arising from the spondylolytic defect was displaced toward the L5 nerve root, and a bilateral contact of the displaced structure with the L5 nerve root was shown in extension of the spine. To our knowledge, this is the first case described of posterior instability in patients with spondylolisthesis. The clinical implications of posterior instability are unknown; however, it is thought that this disorder is common and that it can only be diagnosed using upright MRI.

  8. Modelling of glucose-insulin-glucagon pharmacodynamics in man

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wendt, Sabrina Lyngbye; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Haidar, A.

    The purpose is to build a simulation model of the glucoregulatory system in man. We estimate individual human parameters of a physiological glucose-insulin-glucagon model. We report posterior probability distributions and correlations of model parameters....

  9. House thermal model parameter estimation method for Model Predictive Control applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Leeuwen, Richard Pieter; de Wit, J.B.; Fink, J.; Smit, Gerardus Johannes Maria

    In this paper we investigate thermal network models with different model orders applied to various Dutch low-energy house types with high and low interior thermal mass and containing floor heating. Parameter estimations are performed by using data from TRNSYS simulations. The paper discusses results

  10. An improved robust model predictive control for linear parameter-varying input-output models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abbas, H.S.; Hanema, J.; Tóth, R.; Mohammadpour, J.; Meskin, N.

    2018-01-01

    This paper describes a new robust model predictive control (MPC) scheme to control the discrete-time linear parameter-varying input-output models subject to input and output constraints. Closed-loop asymptotic stability is guaranteed by including a quadratic terminal cost and an ellipsoidal terminal

  11. Seven-parameter statistical model for BRDF in the UV band.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Lu; Wu, Zhensen; Zou, Xiren; Cao, Yunhua

    2012-05-21

    A new semi-empirical seven-parameter BRDF model is developed in the UV band using experimentally measured data. The model is based on the five-parameter model of Wu and the fourteen-parameter model of Renhorn and Boreman. Surface scatter, bulk scatter and retro-reflection scatter are considered. An optimizing modeling method, the artificial immune network genetic algorithm, is used to fit the BRDF measurement data over a wide range of incident angles. The calculation time and accuracy of the five- and seven-parameter models are compared. After fixing the seven parameters, the model can well describe scattering data in the UV band.

  12. Parameter and State Estimator for State Space Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruifeng Ding

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a parameter and state estimator for canonical state space systems from measured input-output data. The key is to solve the system state from the state equation and to substitute it into the output equation, eliminating the state variables, and the resulting equation contains only the system inputs and outputs, and to derive a least squares parameter identification algorithm. Furthermore, the system states are computed from the estimated parameters and the input-output data. Convergence analysis using the martingale convergence theorem indicates that the parameter estimates converge to their true values. Finally, an illustrative example is provided to show that the proposed algorithm is effective.

  13. Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: the importance of model structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathiraja, Sahani; Anghileri, Daniela; Burlando, Paolo; Sharma, Ashish; Marshall, Lucy; Moradkhani, Hamid

    2018-05-01

    Rapid population and economic growth in Southeast Asia has been accompanied by extensive land use change with consequent impacts on catchment hydrology. Modeling methodologies capable of handling changing land use conditions are therefore becoming ever more important and are receiving increasing attention from hydrologists. A recently developed data-assimilation-based framework that allows model parameters to vary through time in response to signals of change in observations is considered for a medium-sized catchment (2880 km2) in northern Vietnam experiencing substantial but gradual land cover change. We investigate the efficacy of the method as well as the importance of the chosen model structure in ensuring the success of a time-varying parameter method. The method was used with two lumped daily conceptual models (HBV and HyMOD) that gave good-quality streamflow predictions during pre-change conditions. Although both time-varying parameter models gave improved streamflow predictions under changed conditions compared to the time-invariant parameter model, persistent biases for low flows were apparent in the HyMOD case. It was found that HyMOD was not suited to representing the modified baseflow conditions, resulting in extreme and unrealistic time-varying parameter estimates. This work shows that the chosen model can be critical for ensuring the time-varying parameter framework successfully models streamflow under changing land cover conditions. It can also be used to determine whether land cover changes (and not just meteorological factors) contribute to the observed hydrologic changes in retrospective studies where the lack of a paired control catchment precludes such an assessment.

  14. Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: the importance of model structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Pathiraja

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Rapid population and economic growth in Southeast Asia has been accompanied by extensive land use change with consequent impacts on catchment hydrology. Modeling methodologies capable of handling changing land use conditions are therefore becoming ever more important and are receiving increasing attention from hydrologists. A recently developed data-assimilation-based framework that allows model parameters to vary through time in response to signals of change in observations is considered for a medium-sized catchment (2880 km2 in northern Vietnam experiencing substantial but gradual land cover change. We investigate the efficacy of the method as well as the importance of the chosen model structure in ensuring the success of a time-varying parameter method. The method was used with two lumped daily conceptual models (HBV and HyMOD that gave good-quality streamflow predictions during pre-change conditions. Although both time-varying parameter models gave improved streamflow predictions under changed conditions compared to the time-invariant parameter model, persistent biases for low flows were apparent in the HyMOD case. It was found that HyMOD was not suited to representing the modified baseflow conditions, resulting in extreme and unrealistic time-varying parameter estimates. This work shows that the chosen model can be critical for ensuring the time-varying parameter framework successfully models streamflow under changing land cover conditions. It can also be used to determine whether land cover changes (and not just meteorological factors contribute to the observed hydrologic changes in retrospective studies where the lack of a paired control catchment precludes such an assessment.

  15. Modeling the vertical soil organic matter profile using Bayesian parameter estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. C. Braakhekke

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The vertical distribution of soil organic matter (SOM in the profile may constitute an important factor for soil carbon cycling. However, the formation of the SOM profile is currently poorly understood due to equifinality, caused by the entanglement of several processes: input from roots, mixing due to bioturbation, and organic matter leaching. In this study we quantified the contribution of these three processes using Bayesian parameter estimation for the mechanistic SOM profile model SOMPROF. Based on organic carbon measurements, 13 parameters related to decomposition and transport of organic matter were estimated for two temperate forest soils: an Arenosol with a mor humus form (Loobos, the Netherlands, and a Cambisol with mull-type humus (Hainich, Germany. Furthermore, the use of the radioisotope 210Pbex as tracer for vertical SOM transport was studied. For Loobos, the calibration results demonstrate the importance of organic matter transport with the liquid phase for shaping the vertical SOM profile, while the effects of bioturbation are generally negligible. These results are in good agreement with expectations given in situ conditions. For Hainich, the calibration offered three distinct explanations for the observations (three modes in the posterior distribution. With the addition of 210Pbex data and prior knowledge, as well as additional information about in situ conditions, we were able to identify the most likely explanation, which indicated that root litter input is a dominant process for the SOM profile. For both sites the organic matter appears to comprise mainly adsorbed but potentially leachable material, pointing to the importance of organo-mineral interactions. Furthermore, organic matter in the mineral soil appears to be mainly derived from root litter, supporting previous studies that highlighted the importance of root input for soil carbon sequestration. The 210

  16. Uncertainty of Modal Parameters Estimated by ARMA Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jakob Laigaard; Brincker, Rune; Rytter, Anders

    In this paper the uncertainties of identified modal parameters such as eigenfrequencies and damping ratios are assessed. From the measured response of dynamic excited structures the modal parameters may be identified and provide important structural knowledge. However the uncertainty of the param...

  17. On the relationship between input parameters in two-mass vocal-fold model with acoustical coupling an signal parameters of the glottal flow

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Hirtum, Annemie; Lopez, Ines; Hirschberg, Abraham; Pelorson, Xavier

    2003-01-01

    In this paper the sensitivity of the two-mass model with acoustical coupling to the model input-parameters is assessed. The model-output or the glottal volume air flow is characterised by signal-parameters in the time-domain. The influence of changing input-parameters on the signal-parameters is

  18. On the relationship between input parameters in the two-mass vocal-fold model with acoustical coupling and signal parameters of the glottal flow

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hirtum, van A.; Lopez Arteaga, I.; Hirschberg, A.; Pelorson, X.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper the sensitivity of the two-mass model with acoustical coupling to the model input-parameters is assessed. The model-output or the glottal volume air flow is characterised by signal-parameters in the time-domain. The influence of changing input-parameters on the signal-parameters is

  19. A Note on the Item Information Function of the Four-Parameter Logistic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magis, David

    2013-01-01

    This article focuses on four-parameter logistic (4PL) model as an extension of the usual three-parameter logistic (3PL) model with an upper asymptote possibly different from 1. For a given item with fixed item parameters, Lord derived the value of the latent ability level that maximizes the item information function under the 3PL model. The…

  20. Posterior Urethral Valves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steve J. Hodges

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The most common cause of lower urinary tract obstruction in male infants is posterior urethral valves. Although the incidence has remained stable, the neonatal mortality for this disorder has improved due to early diagnosis and intensive neonatal care, thanks in part to the widespread use of prenatal ultrasound evaluations. In fact, the most common reason for the diagnosis of posterior urethral valves presently is the evaluation of infants for prenatal hydronephrosis. Since these children are often diagnosed early, the urethral obstruction can be alleviated rapidly through catheter insertion and eventual surgery, and their metabolic derangements can be normalized without delay, avoiding preventable infant mortality. Of the children that survive, however, early diagnosis has not had much effect on their long-term prognosis, as 30% still develop renal insufficiency before adolescence. A better understanding of the exact cause of the congenital obstruction of the male posterior urethra, prevention of postnatal bladder and renal injury, and the development of safe methods to treat urethral obstruction prenatally (and thereby avoiding the bladder and renal damage due to obstructive uropathy are the goals for the care of children with posterior urethral valves[1].

  1. Good Models Gone Bad: Quantifying and Predicting Parameter-Induced Climate Model Simulation Failures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, D. D.; Klein, R.; Tannahill, J.; Brandon, S.; Covey, C. C.; Domyancic, D.; Ivanova, D. P.

    2012-12-01

    Simulations using IPCC-class climate models are subject to fail or crash for a variety of reasons. Statistical analysis of the failures can yield useful insights to better understand and improve the models. During the course of uncertainty quantification (UQ) ensemble simulations to assess the effects of ocean model parameter uncertainties on climate simulations, we experienced a series of simulation failures of the Parallel Ocean Program (POP2). About 8.5% of our POP2 runs failed for numerical reasons at certain combinations of parameter values. We apply support vector machine (SVM) classification from the fields of pattern recognition and machine learning to quantify and predict the probability of failure as a function of the values of 18 POP2 parameters. The SVM classifiers readily predict POP2 failures in an independent validation ensemble, and are subsequently used to determine the causes of the failures via a global sensitivity analysis. Four parameters related to ocean mixing and viscosity are identified as the major sources of POP2 failures. Our method can be used to improve the robustness of complex scientific models to parameter perturbations and to better steer UQ ensembles. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344 and was funded by the Uncertainty Quantification Strategic Initiative Laboratory Directed Research and Development Project at LLNL under project tracking code 10-SI-013 (UCRL LLNL-ABS-569112).

  2. MODEL JARINGAN SYARAF TIRUAN UNTUK MEMPREDIKSI PARAMETER KUALITAS TOMAT BERDASARKAN PARAMETER WARNA RGB (An artificial neural network model for predicting tomato quality parameters based on color

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rudiati Evi Masithoh

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Artificial neural networks (ANN was used to predict the quality parameters of tomato, i.e. Brix, citric acid, total carotene, and vitamin C. ANN was developed from Red Green Blue (RGB image data of tomatoes measured using a developed computer vision system (CVS. Qualitative analysis of tomato compositions were obtained from laboratory experiments. ANN model was based on a feedforward backpropagation network with different training functions, namely gradient descent (traingd, gradient descent with the resilient backpropagation (trainrp, Broyden, Fletcher, Goldfrab and Shanno (BFGS quasi-Newton (trainbfg, as well as Levenberg Marquardt (trainlm.  The network structure using logsig and linear (purelin activation function at the hidden and output layer, respectively, and using  the trainlm as a training function resulted in the best performance. Correlation coefficient (r of training and validation process were 0.97 - 0.99 and 0.92 - 0.99, whereas the MAE values ​​ranged from 0.01 to 0.23 and 0.03 to 0.59, respectively. Keywords: Artificial neural network, trainlm, tomato, RGB   Jaringan syaraf tiruan (JST digunakan untuk memprediksi parameter kualitas tomat, yaitu Brix, asam sitrat, karoten total, dan vitamin C. JST dikembangkan dari data Red Green Blue (RGB  citra tomat yang diukur menggunakan computer vision system. Data kualitas tomat diperoleh dari analisis di laboratorium. Struktur model JST didasarkan pada jaringan feedforward backpropagation dengan berbagai fungsi pelatihan, yaitu gradient descent (traingd, gradient descent dengan resilient backpropagation (trainrp, Broyden, Fletcher, Goldfrab dan Shanno (BFGS quasi-Newton (trainbfg, serta Levenberg Marquardt (trainlm. Fungsi pelatihan yang terbaik adalah menggunakan trainlm, serta pada struktur jaringan digunakan fungsi aktivasi logsig pada lapisan tersembunyi dan linier (purelin pada lapisan keluaran. dengan 1000 epoch. Nilai koefisien korelasi (r pada tahap pelatihan dan validasi

  3. Connecting Global to Local Parameters in Barred Galaxy Models

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    Key words. Galaxies: barred—orbits—global and local parameters. .... series near the stable Lagrange point L1, which coincides with the origin. Doing so, .... Toomre, A. 1981, In: The Structure and Evolution of Normal Galaxies, (eds) S. M. Fall,.

  4. Checking the new IRI model: The bottomside B parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosert, M.; Buresova, D.; Miro, G.; Lazo, B.; Ezquer, R.

    2003-01-01

    Electron density profiles obtained at Pruhonice (50.0, 15.0), El Arenosillo (37.1, 353.2) and Havana (23, 278) were used to check the bottom-side B parameters BO (thickness parameter) and B1 (shape parameter) predicted by the new IRI - 2000 version. The electron density profiles were derived from ionograms using the ARP technique. The data base includes daytime and nighttime ionograms recorded under different seasonal and solar activity conditions. Comparisons with IRI predictions were also done. The analysis shows that: a) The parameter B1 given by IRI 2000 reproduces better the observed ARP values than the IRI-90 version and b) The observed BO values are in general well reproduced by both IRI versions: IRI-90 and IRI-2000. (author)

  5. Checking the new IRI model The bottomside B parameters

    CERN Document Server

    Mosert, M; Ezquer, R; Lazo, B; Miro, G

    2002-01-01

    Electron density profiles obtained at Pruhonice (50.0, 15.0), El Arenosillo (37.1, 353.2) and Havana (23, 278) were used to check the bottom-side B parameters BO (thickness parameter) and B1 (shape parameter) predicted by the new IRI - 2000 version. The electron density profiles were derived from ionograms using the ARP technique. The data base includes daytime and nighttime ionograms recorded under different seasonal and solar activity conditions. Comparisons with IRI predictions were also done. The analysis shows that: a) The parameter B1 given by IRI 2000 reproduces better the observed ARP values than the IRI-90 version and b) The observed BO values are in general well reproduced by both IRI versions: IRI-90 and IRI-2000.

  6. Modelling of nonhomogeneous atmosphere in NPP containment using lumped-parameter model based on CFD calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivo, Kljenak; Miroslav, Babic; Borut, Mavko

    2007-01-01

    The possibility of simulating adequately the flow circulation within a nuclear power plant containment using a lumped-parameter code is considered. An experiment on atmosphere mixing and stratification, which was performed in the containment experimental facility TOSQAN at IRSN (Institute of Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety) in Saclay (France), was simulated with the CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) code CFX4 and the lumped-parameter code CONTAIN. During some phases of the experiment, steady states were achieved by keeping the boundary conditions constant. Two steady states during which natural convection was the dominant gas flow mechanism were simulated independently. The nodalization of the lumped-parameter model was based on the flow pattern, simulated with the CFD code. The simulation with the lumped-parameter code predicted basically the same flow circulation patterns within the experimental vessel as the simulation with the CFD code did. (authors)

  7. Posterior microphthalmos pigmentary retinopathy syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pehere, Niranjan; Jalali, Subhadra; Deshmukh, Himanshu; Kannabiran, Chitra

    2011-04-01

    Posterior Microphthalmos Pigmentary Retinopathy Syndrome (PMPRS). Posterior microphthalmos (PM) is a relatively infrequent type of microphthalmos where posterior segment is predominantly affected with normal anterior segment measurements. Herein, we report two siblings with posterior microphthalmos retinopathy syndrome with postulated autosomal recessive mode of inheritance. A 13-year-old child had PM and retinitis pigmentosa (RP) and his 7-year-old sister had PM, RP, and foveoschisis. The genetics of this syndrome and variable phenotype is discussed. Importance of being aware of posterior microphthalmos and its posterior segment associations is highlighted.

  8. A stochastic optimization model under modeling uncertainty and parameter certainty for groundwater remediation design--part I. Model development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, L; Huang, G H; Lu, H W

    2010-04-15

    Solving groundwater remediation optimization problems based on proxy simulators can usually yield optimal solutions differing from the "true" ones of the problem. This study presents a new stochastic optimization model under modeling uncertainty and parameter certainty (SOMUM) and the associated solution method for simultaneously addressing modeling uncertainty associated with simulator residuals and optimizing groundwater remediation processes. This is a new attempt different from the previous modeling efforts. The previous ones focused on addressing uncertainty in physical parameters (i.e. soil porosity) while this one aims to deal with uncertainty in mathematical simulator (arising from model residuals). Compared to the existing modeling approaches (i.e. only parameter uncertainty is considered), the model has the advantages of providing mean-variance analysis for contaminant concentrations, mitigating the effects of modeling uncertainties on optimal remediation strategies, offering confidence level of optimal remediation strategies to system designers, and reducing computational cost in optimization processes. 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. A stochastic optimization model under modeling uncertainty and parameter certainty for groundwater remediation design-Part I. Model development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    He, L., E-mail: li.he@ryerson.ca [Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Architecture and Science, Ryerson University, 350 Victoria Street, Toronto, Ontario, M5B 2K3 (Canada); Huang, G.H. [Environmental Systems Engineering Program, Faculty of Engineering, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan, S4S 0A2 (Canada); College of Urban Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China); Lu, H.W. [Environmental Systems Engineering Program, Faculty of Engineering, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan, S4S 0A2 (Canada)

    2010-04-15

    Solving groundwater remediation optimization problems based on proxy simulators can usually yield optimal solutions differing from the 'true' ones of the problem. This study presents a new stochastic optimization model under modeling uncertainty and parameter certainty (SOMUM) and the associated solution method for simultaneously addressing modeling uncertainty associated with simulator residuals and optimizing groundwater remediation processes. This is a new attempt different from the previous modeling efforts. The previous ones focused on addressing uncertainty in physical parameters (i.e. soil porosity) while this one aims to deal with uncertainty in mathematical simulator (arising from model residuals). Compared to the existing modeling approaches (i.e. only parameter uncertainty is considered), the model has the advantages of providing mean-variance analysis for contaminant concentrations, mitigating the effects of modeling uncertainties on optimal remediation strategies, offering confidence level of optimal remediation strategies to system designers, and reducing computational cost in optimization processes.

  10. Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for a storm surge and wave model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. A. Bastidas

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Development and simulation of synthetic hurricane tracks is a common methodology used to estimate hurricane hazards in the absence of empirical coastal surge and wave observations. Such methods typically rely on numerical models to translate stochastically generated hurricane wind and pressure forcing into coastal surge and wave estimates. The model output uncertainty associated with selection of appropriate model parameters must therefore be addressed. The computational overburden of probabilistic surge hazard estimates is exacerbated by the high dimensionality of numerical surge and wave models. We present a model parameter sensitivity analysis of the Delft3D model for the simulation of hazards posed by Hurricane Bob (1991 utilizing three theoretical wind distributions (NWS23, modified Rankine, and Holland. The sensitive model parameters (of 11 total considered include wind drag, the depth-induced breaking γB, and the bottom roughness. Several parameters show no sensitivity (threshold depth, eddy viscosity, wave triad parameters, and depth-induced breaking αB and can therefore be excluded to reduce the computational overburden of probabilistic surge hazard estimates. The sensitive model parameters also demonstrate a large number of interactions between parameters and a nonlinear model response. While model outputs showed sensitivity to several parameters, the ability of these parameters to act as tuning parameters for calibration is somewhat limited as proper model calibration is strongly reliant on accurate wind and pressure forcing data. A comparison of the model performance with forcings from the different wind models is also presented.

  11. New trends in parameter identification for mathematical models

    CERN Document Server

    Leitão, Antonio; Zubelli, Jorge

    2018-01-01

    The Proceedings volume contains 16 contributions to the IMPA conference “New Trends in Parameter Identification for Mathematical Models”, Rio de Janeiro, Oct 30 – Nov 3, 2017, integrating the “Chemnitz Symposium on Inverse Problems on Tour”.  This conference is part of the “Thematic Program on Parameter Identification in Mathematical Models” organized  at IMPA in October and November 2017. One goal is to foster the scientific collaboration between mathematicians and engineers from the Brazialian, European and Asian communities. Main topics are iterative and variational regularization methods in Hilbert and Banach spaces for the stable approximate solution of ill-posed inverse problems, novel methods for parameter identification in partial differential equations, problems of tomography ,  solution of coupled conduction-radiation problems at high temperatures, and the statistical solution of inverse problems with applications in physics.

  12. Posterior Reversible Encephalopathy (PRES)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moron E, Fanny E; Diaz Marchan, Pedro

    2005-01-01

    The Posterior Reversible Encephalopathy Syndrome (PRES) is a clinical Syndrome composed of cephalea, alteration in vision and convulsions, usually observed in patients with sudden elevation of arterial pressure. The imagenologic evidence shows reversible vasogenic brain edema without stroke. Its location is predominantly posterior; it affects the cortex and the subcortical white matter of the occipital, parietal and temporal lobes. The treatment with antihypertensive drugs and the removing of immunosupressor medication are generally associated with complete neurological recovery; this is reflected also in the images which return to their basal condition. The untreated hypertension, on the other side, can result in a progressive defect of the autoregulation system of the central nervous system with cerebral hemorrhage, irreversible brain stroke, coma and death

  13. Robotic posterior retroperitoneal adrenalectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okoh, Alexis Kofi; Yigitbas, Hakan; Berber, Eren

    2015-09-01

    Since its initial description by Mercan et al. laparoscopic posterior retroperitoneal (PR) adrenalectomy has served as an alternaltive to the transabdominal (TL) approach for the treatment of adrenal pathologies. Robotic adrenal surgery has been reported to improve surgeon ergonomics and facilitate dissection. In patients with bilateral adrenal masses, PR adrenalectomy may be the approach of choice. We herein describe the technique, discuss its limitations and present a critical review of the current literature. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Temporal variation and scaling of parameters for a monthly hydrologic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Chao; Liu, Pan; Wang, Dingbao; Wang, Weiguang

    2018-03-01

    The temporal variation of model parameters is affected by the catchment conditions and has a significant impact on hydrological simulation. This study aims to evaluate the seasonality and downscaling of model parameter across time scales based on monthly and mean annual water balance models with a common model framework. Two parameters of the monthly model, i.e., k and m, are assumed to be time-variant at different months. Based on the hydrological data set from 121 MOPEX catchments in the United States, we firstly analyzed the correlation between parameters (k and m) and catchment properties (NDVI and frequency of rainfall events, α). The results show that parameter k is positively correlated with NDVI or α, while the correlation is opposite for parameter m, indicating that precipitation and vegetation affect monthly water balance by controlling temporal variation of parameters k and m. The multiple linear regression is then used to fit the relationship between ε and the means and coefficient of variations of parameters k and m. Based on the empirical equation and the correlations between the time-variant parameters and NDVI, the mean annual parameter ε is downscaled to monthly k and m. The results show that it has lower NSEs than these from model with time-variant k and m being calibrated through SCE-UA, while for several study catchments, it has higher NSEs than that of the model with constant parameters. The proposed method is feasible and provides a useful tool for temporal scaling of model parameter.

  15. Zener Diode Compact Model Parameter Extraction Using Xyce-Dakota Optimization.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buchheit, Thomas E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Wilcox, Ian Zachary [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Sandoval, Andrew J [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Reza, Shahed [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-12-01

    This report presents a detailed process for compact model parameter extraction for DC circuit Zener diodes. Following the traditional approach of Zener diode parameter extraction, circuit model representation is defined and then used to capture the different operational regions of a real diode's electrical behavior. The circuit model contains 9 parameters represented by resistors and characteristic diodes as circuit model elements. The process of initial parameter extraction, the identification of parameter values for the circuit model elements, is presented in a way that isolates the dependencies between certain electrical parameters and highlights both the empirical nature of the extraction and portions of the real diode physical behavior which of the parameters are intended to represent. Optimization of the parameters, a necessary part of a robost parameter extraction process, is demonstrated using a 'Xyce-Dakota' workflow, discussed in more detail in the report. Among other realizations during this systematic approach of electrical model parameter extraction, non-physical solutions are possible and can be difficult to avoid because of the interdependencies between the different parameters. The process steps described are fairly general and can be leveraged for other types of semiconductor device model extractions. Also included in the report are recommendations for experiment setups for generating optimum dataset for model extraction and the Parameter Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) for Zener diodes.

  16. Importance of hydrological parameters in contaminant transport modeling in a terrestrial environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsuduki, Katsunori; Matsunaga, Takeshi

    2007-01-01

    A grid type multi-layered distributed parameter model for calculating discharge in a watershed was described. Model verification with our field observation resulted in different sets of hydrological parameter values, all of which reproduced the observed discharge. The effect of those varied hydrological parameters on contaminant transport calculation was examined and discussed by simulation of event water transfer. (author)

  17. Cognitive Models of Risky Choice: Parameter Stability and Predictive Accuracy of Prospect Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glockner, Andreas; Pachur, Thorsten

    2012-01-01

    In the behavioral sciences, a popular approach to describe and predict behavior is cognitive modeling with adjustable parameters (i.e., which can be fitted to data). Modeling with adjustable parameters allows, among other things, measuring differences between people. At the same time, parameter estimation also bears the risk of overfitting. Are…

  18. Parameter Selection and Performance Analysis of Mobile Terminal Models Based on Unity3D

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    KONG Li-feng; ZHAO Hai-ying; XU Guang-mei

    2014-01-01

    Mobile platform is now widely seen as a promising multimedia service with a favorable user group and market prospect. To study the influence of mobile terminal models on the quality of scene roaming, a parameter setting platform of mobile terminal models is established to select the parameter selection and performance index on different mobile platforms in this paper. This test platform is established based on model optimality principle, analyzing the performance curve of mobile terminals in different scene models and then deducing the external parameter of model establishment. Simulation results prove that the established test platform is able to analyze the parameter and performance matching list of a mobile terminal model.

  19. Lumped Parameter Modeling for Rapid Vibration Response Prototyping and Test Correlation for Electronic Units

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Dyke, Michael B.

    2013-01-01

    Present preliminary work using lumped parameter models to approximate dynamic response of electronic units to random vibration; Derive a general N-DOF model for application to electronic units; Illustrate parametric influence of model parameters; Implication of coupled dynamics for unit/board design; Demonstrate use of model to infer printed wiring board (PWB) dynamics from external chassis test measurement.

  20. A practical approach to parameter estimation applied to model predicting heart rate regulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olufsen, Mette; Ottesen, Johnny T.

    2013-01-01

    Mathematical models have long been used for prediction of dynamics in biological systems. Recently, several efforts have been made to render these models patient specific. One way to do so is to employ techniques to estimate parameters that enable model based prediction of observed quantities....... Knowledge of variation in parameters within and between groups of subjects have potential to provide insight into biological function. Often it is not possible to estimate all parameters in a given model, in particular if the model is complex and the data is sparse. However, it may be possible to estimate...... a subset of model parameters reducing the complexity of the problem. In this study, we compare three methods that allow identification of parameter subsets that can be estimated given a model and a set of data. These methods will be used to estimate patient specific parameters in a model predicting...

  1. Three-dimensional FEM model of FBGs in PANDA fibers with experimentally determined model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindner, Markus; Hopf, Barbara; Koch, Alexander W.; Roths, Johannes

    2017-04-01

    A 3D-FEM model has been developed to improve the understanding of multi-parameter sensing with Bragg gratings in attached or embedded polarization maintaining fibers. The material properties of the fiber, especially Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio of the fiber's stress applying parts, are crucial for accurate simulations, but are usually not provided by the manufacturers. A methodology is presented to determine the unknown parameters by using experimental characterizations of the fiber and iterative FEM simulations. The resulting 3D-Model is capable of describing the change in birefringence of the free fiber when exposed to longitudinal strain. In future studies the 3D-FEM model will be employed to study the interaction of PANDA fibers with the surrounding materials in which they are embedded.

  2. On 4-degree-of-freedom biodynamic models of seated occupants: Lumped-parameter modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Xian-Xu; Xu, Shi-Xu; Cheng, Wei; Qian, Li-Jun

    2017-08-01

    It is useful to develop an effective biodynamic model of seated human occupants to help understand the human vibration exposure to transportation vehicle vibrations and to help design and improve the anti-vibration devices and/or test dummies. This study proposed and demonstrated a methodology for systematically identifying the best configuration or structure of a 4-degree-of-freedom (4DOF) human vibration model and for its parameter identification. First, an equivalent simplification expression for the models was made. Second, all of the possible 23 structural configurations of the models were identified. Third, each of them was calibrated using the frequency response functions recommended in a biodynamic standard. An improved version of non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) based on Pareto optimization principle was used to determine the model parameters. Finally, a model evaluation criterion proposed in this study was used to assess the models and to identify the best one, which was based on both the goodness of curve fits and comprehensive goodness of the fits. The identified top configurations were better than those reported in the literature. This methodology may also be extended and used to develop the models with other DOFs.

  3. Information Theoretic Tools for Parameter Fitting in Coarse Grained Models

    KAUST Repository

    Kalligiannaki, Evangelia; Harmandaris, Vagelis; Katsoulakis, Markos A.; Plechac, Petr

    2015-01-01

    We study the application of information theoretic tools for model reduction in the case of systems driven by stochastic dynamics out of equilibrium. The model/dimension reduction is considered by proposing parametrized coarse grained dynamics

  4. Kinetic models and parameters estimation study of biomass and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    compaq

    2017-01-11

    Jan 11, 2017 ... Unstructured models were proposed using the logistic equation for growth, the ... analysis of variance (ANOVA) was also used to validate the proposed models. ... production but their choice depends on the cost and the.

  5. Numerical Modeling of Piezoelectric Transducers Using Physical Parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cappon, H.; Keesman, K.J.

    2012-01-01

    Design of ultrasonic equipment is frequently facilitated with numerical models. These numerical models, however, need a calibration step, because usually not all characteristics of the materials used are known. Characterization of material properties combined with numerical simulations and

  6. Parameter sensitivity and identifiability for a biogeochemical model of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Local sensitivity analyses and identifiable parameter subsets were used to describe numerical constraints of a hypoxia model for bottom waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico. The sensitivity of state variables differed considerably with parameter changes, although most variables ...

  7. Reduced order modeling and parameter identification of a building energy system model through an optimization routine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harish, V.S.K.V.; Kumar, Arun

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A BES model based on 1st principles is developed and solved numerically. • Parameters of lumped capacitance model are fitted using the proposed optimization routine. • Validations are showed for different types of building construction elements. • Step response excitations for outdoor air temperature and relative humidity are analyzed. - Abstract: Different control techniques together with intelligent building technology (Building Automation Systems) are used to improve energy efficiency of buildings. In almost all control projects, it is crucial to have building energy models with high computational efficiency in order to design and tune the controllers and simulate their performance. In this paper, a set of partial differential equations are formulated accounting for energy flow within the building space. These equations are then solved as conventional finite difference equations using Crank–Nicholson scheme. Such a model of a higher order is regarded as a benchmark model. An optimization algorithm has been developed, depicted through a flowchart, which minimizes the sum squared error between the step responses of the numerical and the optimal model. Optimal model of the construction element is nothing but a RC-network model with the values of Rs and Cs estimated using the non-linear time invariant constrained optimization routine. The model is validated with comparing the step responses with other two RC-network models whose parameter values are selected based on a certain criteria. Validations are showed for different types of building construction elements viz., low, medium and heavy thermal capacity elements. Simulation results show that the optimal model closely follow the step responses of the numerical model as compared to the responses of other two models.

  8. Parameter estimation for LLDPE gas-phase reactor models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. A. Neumann

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Product development and advanced control applications require models with good predictive capability. However, in some cases it is not possible to obtain good quality phenomenological models due to the lack of data or the presence of important unmeasured effects. The use of empirical models requires less investment in modeling, but implies the need for larger amounts of experimental data to generate models with good predictive capability. In this work, nonlinear phenomenological and empirical models were compared with respect to their capability to predict the melt index and polymer yield of a low-density polyethylene production process consisting of two fluidized bed reactors connected in series. To adjust the phenomenological model, the optimization algorithms based on the flexible polyhedron method of Nelder and Mead showed the best efficiency. To adjust the empirical model, the PLS model was more appropriate for polymer yield, and the melt index needed more nonlinearity like the QPLS models. In the comparison between these two types of models better results were obtained for the empirical models.

  9. Parameter estimation of electricity spot models from futures prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aihara, ShinIchi; Bagchi, Arunabha; Imreizeeq, E.S.N.; Walter, E.

    We consider a slight perturbation of the Schwartz-Smith model for the electricity futures prices and the resulting modified spot model. Using the martingale property of the modified price under the risk neutral measure, we derive the arbitrage free model for the spot and futures prices. We estimate

  10. Gas ultracentrifuge separative parameters modeling using hybrid neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crus, Maria Ursulina de Lima

    2005-01-01

    A hybrid neural network is developed for the calculation of the separative performance of an ultracentrifuge. A feed forward neural network is trained to estimate the internal flow parameters of a gas ultracentrifuge, and then these parameters are applied in the diffusion equation. For this study, a 573 experimental data set is used to establish the relation between the separative performance and the controlled variables. The process control variables considered are: the feed flow rate F, the cut θ and the product pressure Pp. The mechanical arrangements consider the radial waste scoop dimension, the rotating baffle size D s and the axial feed location Z E . The methodology was validated through the comparison of the calculated separative performance with experimental values. This methodology may be applied to other processes, just by adapting the phenomenological procedures. (author)

  11. An Investigation of Invariance Properties of One, Two and Three Parameter Logistic Item Response Theory Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O.A. Awopeju

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The study investigated the invariance properties of one, two and three parame-ter logistic item response theory models. It examined the best fit among one parameter logistic (1PL, two-parameter logistic (2PL and three-parameter logistic (3PL IRT models for SSCE, 2008 in Mathematics. It also investigated the degree of invariance of the IRT models based item difficulty parameter estimates in SSCE in Mathematics across different samples of examinees and examined the degree of invariance of the IRT models based item discrimination estimates in SSCE in Mathematics across different samples of examinees. In order to achieve the set objectives, 6000 students (3000 males and 3000 females were drawn from the population of 35262 who wrote the 2008 paper 1 Senior Secondary Certificate Examination (SSCE in Mathematics organized by National Examination Council (NECO. The item difficulty and item discrimination parameter estimates from CTT and IRT were tested for invariance using BLOG MG 3 and correlation analysis was achieved using SPSS version 20. The research findings were that two parameter model IRT item difficulty and discrimination parameter estimates exhibited invariance property consistently across different samples and that 2-parameter model was suitable for all samples of examinees unlike one-parameter model and 3-parameter model.

  12. ADAPTIVE PARAMETER ESTIMATION OF PERSON RECOGNITION MODEL IN A STOCHASTIC HUMAN TRACKING PROCESS

    OpenAIRE

    W. Nakanishi; T. Fuse; T. Ishikawa

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims at an estimation of parameters of person recognition models using a sequential Bayesian filtering method. In many human tracking method, any parameters of models used for recognize the same person in successive frames are usually set in advance of human tracking process. In real situation these parameters may change according to situation of observation and difficulty level of human position prediction. Thus in this paper we formulate an adaptive parameter estimation ...

  13. Entropy Parameter M in Modeling a Flow Duration Curve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Zhang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A flow duration curve (FDC is widely used for predicting water supply, hydropower, environmental flow, sediment load, and pollutant load. Among different methods of constructing an FDC, the entropy-based method, developed recently, is appealing because of its several desirable characteristics, such as simplicity, flexibility, and statistical basis. This method contains a parameter, called entropy parameter M, which constitutes the basis for constructing the FDC. Since M is related to the ratio of the average streamflow to the maximum streamflow which, in turn, is related to the drainage area, it may be possible to determine M a priori and construct an FDC for ungauged basins. This paper, therefore, analyzed the characteristics of M in both space and time using streamflow data from 73 gauging stations in the Brazos River basin, Texas, USA. Results showed that the M values were impacted by reservoir operation and possibly climate change. The values were fluctuating, but relatively stable, after the operation of the reservoirs. Parameter M was found to change inversely with the ratio of average streamflow to the maximum streamflow. When there was an extreme event, there occurred a jump in the M value. Further, spatially, M had a larger value if the drainage area was small.

  14. Optimization of process parameters through GRA, TOPSIS and RSA models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suresh Nipanikar

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This article investigates the effect of cutting parameters on the surface roughness and flank wear during machining of titanium alloy Ti-6Al-4V ELI( Extra Low Interstitial in minimum quantity lubrication environment by using PVD TiAlN insert. Full factorial design of experiment was used for the machining 2 factors 3 levels and 2 factors 2 levels. Turning parameters studied were cutting speed (50, 65, 80 m/min, feed (0.08, 0.15, 0.2 mm/rev and depth of cut 0.5 mm constant. The results show that 44.61 % contribution of feed and 43.57 % contribution of cutting speed on surface roughness also 53.16 % contribution of cutting tool and 26.47 % contribution of cutting speed on tool flank wear. Grey relational analysis and TOPSIS method suggest the optimum combinations of machining parameters as cutting speed: 50 m/min, feed: 0.8 mm/rev., cutting tool: PVD TiAlN, cutting fluid: Palm oi

  15. Monoenergetic electron parameters in a spheroid bubble model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sattarian, H.; Sh., Rahmatallahpur; Tohidi, T.

    2013-02-01

    A reliable analytical expression for the potential of plasma waves with phase velocities near the speed of light is derived. The presented spheroid cavity model is more consistent than the previous spherical and ellipsoidal models and it explains the mono-energetic electron trajectory more accurately, especially at the relativistic region. The maximum energy of electrons is calculated and it is shown that the maximum energy of the spheroid model is less than that of the spherical model. The electron energy spectrum is also calculated and it is found that the energy distribution ratio of electrons ΔE/E for the spheroid model under the conditions reported here is half that of the spherical model and it is in good agreement with the experimental value in the same conditions. As a result, the quasi-mono-energetic electron output beam interacting with the laser plasma can be more appropriately described with this model.

  16. Monoenergetic electron parameters in a spheroid bubble model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattarian, H.; Rahmatallahpur, Sh.; Tohidi, T.

    2013-01-01

    A reliable analytical expression for the potential of plasma waves with phase velocities near the speed of light is derived. The presented spheroid cavity model is more consistent than the previous spherical and ellipsoidal models and it explains the mono-energetic electron trajectory more accurately, especially at the relativistic region. The maximum energy of electrons is calculated and it is shown that the maximum energy of the spheroid model is less than that of the spherical model. The electron energy spectrum is also calculated and it is found that the energy distribution ratio of electrons ΔE/E for the spheroid model under the conditions reported here is half that of the spherical model and it is in good agreement with the experimental value in the same conditions. As a result, the quasi-mono-energetic electron output beam interacting with the laser plasma can be more appropriately described with this model. (physics of gases, plasmas, and electric discharges)

  17. Assessing models for parameters of the Ångström-Prescott formula in China

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Xiaoying; Xu, Yinlong; Zhong, Xiuli

    2012-01-01

    against the calibrated ones. Models 1, 6 and 7 showed an advantage in keeping the physical meaning of their modeled parameters due to the small magnitude of and the use of the relation of (a + b) versus other variables as a constraint, respectively. All models tended to perform best in zone II and poorest...... () (models 1–2), altitude (model 7), altitude and (model 3), altitude, and latitude (model 4), altitude and latitude (model 5) and annual average air temperature (model 6). It was found that model 7 performed best, followed by models 6, 1, 3, 2 and 4. The better performance of models 7 and 6 and the fact....... This also suggests that applicability of a Rs model is not proportional to its complexity. The common feature of the better performing models suggests that accurate modeling of parameter a is more important than that of b. Therefore, priority should be given to parameter models having higher accuracy for a...

  18. Reduced-order modelling of parameter-dependent, linear and nonlinear dynamic partial differential equation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, A A; Xing, W W; Triantafyllidis, V

    2017-04-01

    In this paper, we develop reduced-order models for dynamic, parameter-dependent, linear and nonlinear partial differential equations using proper orthogonal decomposition (POD). The main challenges are to accurately and efficiently approximate the POD bases for new parameter values and, in the case of nonlinear problems, to efficiently handle the nonlinear terms. We use a Bayesian nonlinear regression approach to learn the snapshots of the solutions and the nonlinearities for new parameter values. Computational efficiency is ensured by using manifold learning to perform the emulation in a low-dimensional space. The accuracy of the method is demonstrated on a linear and a nonlinear example, with comparisons with a global basis approach.

  19. The estimation of soil parameters using observations on crop biophysical variables and the crop model STICS improve the predictions of agro environmental variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varella, H.-V.

    2009-04-01

    Dynamic crop models are very useful to predict the behavior of crops in their environment and are widely used in a lot of agro-environmental work. These models have many parameters and their spatial application require a good knowledge of these parameters, especially of the soil parameters. These parameters can be estimated from soil analysis at different points but this is very costly and requires a lot of experimental work. Nevertheless, observations on crops provided by new techniques like remote sensing or yield monitoring, is a possibility for estimating soil parameters through the inversion of crop models. In this work, the STICS crop model is studied for the wheat and the sugar beet and it includes more than 200 parameters. After a previous work based on a large experimental database for calibrate parameters related to the characteristics of the crop, a global sensitivity analysis of the observed variables (leaf area index LAI and absorbed nitrogen QN provided by remote sensing data, and yield at harvest provided by yield monitoring) to the soil parameters is made, in order to determine which of them have to be estimated. This study was made in different climatic and agronomic conditions and it reveals that 7 soil parameters (4 related to the water and 3 related to the nitrogen) have a clearly influence on the variance of the observed variables and have to be therefore estimated. For estimating these 7 soil parameters, a Bayesian data assimilation method is chosen (because of available prior information on these parameters) named Importance Sampling by using observations, on wheat and sugar beet crop, of LAI and QN at various dates and yield at harvest acquired on different climatic and agronomic conditions. The quality of parameter estimation is then determined by comparing the result of parameter estimation with only prior information and the result with the posterior information provided by the Bayesian data assimilation method. The result of the

  20. Heat Shock Protein Beta-1 Modifies Anterior to Posterior Purkinje Cell Vulnerability in a Mouse Model of Niemann-Pick Type C Disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chan Chung

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Selective neuronal vulnerability is characteristic of most degenerative disorders of the CNS, yet mechanisms underlying this phenomenon remain poorly characterized. Many forms of cerebellar degeneration exhibit an anterior-to-posterior gradient of Purkinje cell loss including Niemann-Pick type C1 (NPC disease, a lysosomal storage disorder characterized by progressive neurological deficits that often begin in childhood. Here, we sought to identify candidate genes underlying vulnerability of Purkinje cells in anterior cerebellar lobules using data freely available in the Allen Brain Atlas. This approach led to the identification of 16 candidate neuroprotective or susceptibility genes. We demonstrate that one candidate gene, heat shock protein beta-1 (HSPB1, promoted neuronal survival in cellular models of NPC disease through a mechanism that involved inhibition of apoptosis. Additionally, we show that over-expression of wild type HSPB1 or a phosphomimetic mutant in NPC mice slowed the progression of motor impairment and diminished cerebellar Purkinje cell loss. We confirmed the modulatory effect of Hspb1 on Purkinje cell degeneration in vivo, as knockdown by Hspb1 shRNA significantly enhanced neuron loss. These results suggest that strategies to promote HSPB1 activity may slow the rate of cerebellar degeneration in NPC disease and highlight the use of bioinformatics tools to uncover pathways leading to neuronal protection in neurodegenerative disorders.

  1. Weibull Parameters Estimation Based on Physics of Failure Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kostandyan, Erik; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2012-01-01

    Reliability estimation procedures are discussed for the example of fatigue development in solder joints using a physics of failure model. The accumulated damage is estimated based on a physics of failure model, the Rainflow counting algorithm and the Miner’s rule. A threshold model is used...... for degradation modeling and failure criteria determination. The time dependent accumulated damage is assumed linearly proportional to the time dependent degradation level. It is observed that the deterministic accumulated damage at the level of unity closely estimates the characteristic fatigue life of Weibull...

  2. An approach to measure parameter sensitivity in watershed hydrologic modeling

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Abstract Hydrologic responses vary spatially and temporally according to watershed characteristics. In this study, the hydrologic models that we developed earlier...

  3. Parameter Extraction for PSpice Models by means of an Automated Optimization Tool – An IGBT model Study Case

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Suárez, Carlos Gómez; Reigosa, Paula Diaz; Iannuzzo, Francesco

    2016-01-01

    An original tool for parameter extraction of PSpice models has been released, enabling a simple parameter identification. A physics-based IGBT model is used to demonstrate that the optimization tool is capable of generating a set of parameters which predicts the steady-state and switching behavio...

  4. Effect of posterior crown margin placement on gingival health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reitemeier, Bernd; Hänsel, Kristina; Walter, Michael H; Kastner, Christian; Toutenburg, Helge

    2002-02-01

    The clinical impact of posterior crown margin placement on gingival health has not been thoroughly quantified. This study evaluated the effect of posterior crown margin placement with multivariate analysis. Ten general dentists reviewed 240 patients with 480 metal-ceramic crowns in a prospective clinical trial. The alloy was randomly selected from 2 high gold, 1 low gold, and 1 palladium alloy. Variables were the alloy used, oral hygiene index score before treatment, location of crown margins at baseline, and plaque index and sulcus bleeding index scores recorded for restored and control teeth after 1 year. The effect of crown margin placement on sulcular bleeding and plaque accumulation was analyzed with regression models (Prisk of bleeding at intrasulcular posterior crown margins was approximately twice that at supragingival margins. Poor oral hygiene before treatment and plaque also were associated with sulcular bleeding. Facial sites exhibited a lower probability of sulcular bleeding than lingual surfaces. Type of alloy did not influence sulcular bleeding. In this study, placement of crown margins was one of several parameters that affected gingival health.

  5. Posterior distributions for likelihood ratios in forensic science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Hout, Ardo; Alberink, Ivo

    2016-09-01

    Evaluation of evidence in forensic science is discussed using posterior distributions for likelihood ratios. Instead of eliminating the uncertainty by integrating (Bayes factor) or by conditioning on parameter values, uncertainty in the likelihood ratio is retained by parameter uncertainty derived from posterior distributions. A posterior distribution for a likelihood ratio can be summarised by the median and credible intervals. Using the posterior mean of the distribution is not recommended. An analysis of forensic data for body height estimation is undertaken. The posterior likelihood approach has been criticised both theoretically and with respect to applicability. This paper addresses the latter and illustrates an interesting application area. Copyright © 2016 The Chartered Society of Forensic Sciences. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Reopen parameter regions in two-Higgs doublet models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staub, Florian

    2018-01-01

    The stability of the electroweak potential is a very important constraint for models of new physics. At the moment, it is standard for Two-Higgs doublet models (THDM), singlet or triplet extensions of the standard model to perform these checks at tree-level. However, these models are often studied in the presence of very large couplings. Therefore, it can be expected that radiative corrections to the potential are important. We study these effects at the example of the THDM type-II and find that loop corrections can revive more than 50% of the phenomenological viable points which are ruled out by the tree-level vacuum stability checks. Similar effects are expected for other extension of the standard model.

  7. A three-dimensional cohesive sediment transport model with data assimilation: Model development, sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Daosheng; Cao, Anzhou; Zhang, Jicai; Fan, Daidu; Liu, Yongzhi; Zhang, Yue

    2018-06-01

    Based on the theory of inverse problems, a three-dimensional sigma-coordinate cohesive sediment transport model with the adjoint data assimilation is developed. In this model, the physical processes of cohesive sediment transport, including deposition, erosion and advection-diffusion, are parameterized by corresponding model parameters. These parameters are usually poorly known and have traditionally been assigned empirically. By assimilating observations into the model, the model parameters can be estimated using the adjoint method; meanwhile, the data misfit between model results and observations can be decreased. The model developed in this work contains numerous parameters; therefore, it is necessary to investigate the parameter sensitivity of the model, which is assessed by calculating a relative sensitivity function and the gradient of the cost function with respect to each parameter. The results of parameter sensitivity analysis indicate that the model is sensitive to the initial conditions, inflow open boundary conditions, suspended sediment settling velocity and resuspension rate, while the model is insensitive to horizontal and vertical diffusivity coefficients. A detailed explanation of the pattern of sensitivity analysis is also given. In ideal twin experiments, constant parameters are estimated by assimilating 'pseudo' observations. The results show that the sensitive parameters are estimated more easily than the insensitive parameters. The conclusions of this work can provide guidance for the practical applications of this model to simulate sediment transport in the study area.

  8. Parameter Estimation and Prediction of a Nonlinear Storage Model: an algebraic approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doeswijk, T.G.; Keesman, K.J.

    2005-01-01

    Generally, parameters that are nonlinear in system models are estimated by nonlinear least-squares optimization algorithms. In this paper, if a nonlinear discrete-time model with a polynomial quotient structure in input, output, and parameters, a method is proposed to re-parameterize the model such

  9. An Application of a Multidimensional Extension of the Two-Parameter Logistic Latent Trait Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinley, Robert L.; Reckase, Mark D.

    A latent trait model is described that is appropriate for use with tests that measure more than one dimension, and its application to both real and simulated test data is demonstrated. Procedures for estimating the parameters of the model are presented. The research objectives are to determine whether the two-parameter logistic model more…

  10. Digital Modulation Identification Model Using Wavelet Transform and Statistical Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Prakasam

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available A generalized modulation identification scheme is developed and presented. With the help of this scheme, the automatic modulation classification and recognition of wireless communication signals with a priori unknown parameters are possible effectively. The special features of the procedure are the possibility to adapt it dynamically to nearly all modulation types, and the capability to identify. The developed scheme based on wavelet transform and statistical parameters has been used to identify M-ary PSK, M-ary QAM, GMSK, and M-ary FSK modulations. The simulated results show that the correct modulation identification is possible to a lower bound of 5 dB. The identification percentage has been analyzed based on the confusion matrix. When SNR is above 5 dB, the probability of detection of the proposed system is more than 0.968. The performance of the proposed scheme has been compared with existing methods and found it will identify all digital modulation schemes with low SNR.

  11. Heavy particle track structure parameters for biophysical modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watt, D.E.

    1994-01-01

    Averaged values of physical track structure parameters are important in radiobiology and radiological protection for the expression of damage mechanisms and for quantifying radiation effects. To provide a ready reference, tables of relevant quantities have been compiled for heavy charged particles in liquid water. The full tables will be published elsewhere but here illustrative examples are given of the trends for the most important quantities. In the tables, data are given for 74 types of heavy charged particle ranging from protons to uranium ions at specific energies between 0.1 keV/u and 1 GeV/u. Aggregate effects in liquid water are taken into account implicitly in the calculations. Results are presented for instantaneous particle energies and for averages over the charged particle equilibrium spectrum. The latter are of special relevance to radiation dosimetry. Quality parameters calculated are: β 2 ; z 2 /β 2 ; linear primary ionisation and the mean free path between ionisations; LET; track and dose-restricted LET with 100 eV cut-off; relative variances; delta-ray energies and ranges; ion energies and ranges and kerma factors. Here, the procedures used in the calculations are indicated. Representative results are shown in graphical form. The role of the physical track properties is discussed with regard to optimisation of the design of experiments intended to elucidate biological damage mechanisms in mammalian cells and their relevance to radiological protection. ((orig.))

  12. Reversible posterior leukoencephalopathy syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Eun Ja; Yu, Won Jong; Ahn, Kook Jin; Jung, So Lyung; Lee, Yeon Soo; Kim, Ji Chang; Kang, Si Won; Song, Chang Joon; Song, Soon-Young; Koo, Ja Hong; Kim, Man Deuk

    2001-01-01

    To review reversible posterior leukoencephalopathy syndrome. We reviewed 22 patients (M:F=3:19; age, 17-46 years) with the characteristic clinical and imaging features of reversible posterior leukoencephalopathy syndrome. All underwent brain MRI, and in three cases both CT and MRI were performed. In one, MRA was obtained, and in eleven, follow-up MR images were obtained. We evaluated the causes of this syndrome, its clinical manifestations, and MR findings including the locations of lesions, the presence or absence of contrast enhancement, and the changes seen at follow-up MRI. Of the 22 patients, 13 had eclampsia (six during pregnancy and seven during puerperium). Four were receiving immunosuppressive therapy (three, cyclosporine ; one, FK 506). Four suffered renal failure and one had complicated migraine. The clinical manifestations included headache (n=12), visual disturbance (n=13), seizure (n=15), focal neurologic sign (n=3), and altered mental status (n=2). Fifteen patients had hypertension and the others normotension. MRI revealed that lesions were bilateral (n=20) or unilateral (n=2). In all patients the lesion was found in the cortical and subcortical areas of the parieto-occipital lobes ; other locations were the basal ganglia (n=9), posterior temporal lobe (n=8), frontal lobe (n=5), cerebellum (n=5), pons (n=2), and thalamus (n=1). All lesions were of high signal intensity on T2-weighted images, and of iso to low intensity on T1-weighted images. One was combined with acute hematoma in the left basal ganglia. In eight of 11 patients who underwent postcontrast T1-weighted MRI, there was no definite enhancement ; in one, enhancement was mild, and in tow, patchy. CT studies showed low attenuation, and MRA revealed mild vasospasm. The symptoms of all patients improved. Follow-up MRI in nine of 11 patients depicted complete resolution of the lesions ; in two, small infarctions remained but the extent of the lesions had decreased. Reversible posterior

  13. Reversible posterior leukoencephalopathy syndrome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Eun Ja; Yu, Won Jong; Ahn, Kook Jin; Jung, So Lyung; Lee, Yeon Soo; Kim, Ji Chang; Kang, Si Won [The Catholic Univ. of Korea, Taejon (Korea, Republic of); Song, Chang Joon [Chungnam National Univ. School of Medicine, Cheonju (Korea, Republic of); Song, Soon-Young; Koo, Ja Hong [Kwandong Univ. College of Medicine, Myungji Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Man Deuk [College of Medicine Pochon CHA Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2001-10-01

    To review reversible posterior leukoencephalopathy syndrome. We reviewed 22 patients (M:F=3:19; age, 17-46 years) with the characteristic clinical and imaging features of reversible posterior leukoencephalopathy syndrome. All underwent brain MRI, and in three cases both CT and MRI were performed. In one, MRA was obtained, and in eleven, follow-up MR images were obtained. We evaluated the causes of this syndrome, its clinical manifestations, and MR findings including the locations of lesions, the presence or absence of contrast enhancement, and the changes seen at follow-up MRI. Of the 22 patients, 13 had eclampsia (six during pregnancy and seven during puerperium). Four were receiving immunosuppressive therapy (three, cyclosporine ; one, FK 506). Four suffered renal failure and one had complicated migraine. The clinical manifestations included headache (n=12), visual disturbance (n=13), seizure (n=15), focal neurologic sign (n=3), and altered mental status (n=2). Fifteen patients had hypertension and the others normotension. MRI revealed that lesions were bilateral (n=20) or unilateral (n=2). In all patients the lesion was found in the cortical and subcortical areas of the parieto-occipital lobes ; other locations were the basal ganglia (n=9), posterior temporal lobe (n=8), frontal lobe (n=5), cerebellum (n=5), pons (n=2), and thalamus (n=1). All lesions were of high signal intensity on T2-weighted images, and of iso to low intensity on T1-weighted images. One was combined with acute hematoma in the left basal ganglia. In eight of 11 patients who underwent postcontrast T1-weighted MRI, there was no definite enhancement ; in one, enhancement was mild, and in tow, patchy. CT studies showed low attenuation, and MRA revealed mild vasospasm. The symptoms of all patients improved. Follow-up MRI in nine of 11 patients depicted complete resolution of the lesions ; in two, small infarctions remained but the extent of the lesions had decreased. Reversible posterior

  14. Posterior Urethral Strictures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joel Gelman

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Pelvic fracture urethral injuries are typically partial and more often complete disruptions of the most proximal bulbar and distal membranous urethra. Emergency management includes suprapubic tube placement. Subsequent primary realignment to place a urethral catheter remains a controversial topic, but what is not controversial is that when there is the development of a stricture (which is usually obliterative with a distraction defect after suprapubic tube placement or urethral catheter removal, the standard of care is delayed urethral reconstruction with excision and primary anastomosis. This paper reviews the management of patients who suffer pelvic fracture urethral injuries and the techniques of preoperative urethral imaging and subsequent posterior urethroplasty.

  15. Posterior Urethral Strictures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelman, Joel; Wisenbaugh, Eric S.

    2015-01-01

    Pelvic fracture urethral injuries are typically partial and more often complete disruptions of the most proximal bulbar and distal membranous urethra. Emergency management includes suprapubic tube placement. Subsequent primary realignment to place a urethral catheter remains a controversial topic, but what is not controversial is that when there is the development of a stricture (which is usually obliterative with a distraction defect) after suprapubic tube placement or urethral catheter removal, the standard of care is delayed urethral reconstruction with excision and primary anastomosis. This paper reviews the management of patients who suffer pelvic fracture urethral injuries and the techniques of preoperative urethral imaging and subsequent posterior urethroplasty. PMID:26691883

  16. Assessing parameter importance of the Common Land Model based on qualitative and quantitative sensitivity analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Li

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Proper specification of model parameters is critical to the performance of land surface models (LSMs. Due to high dimensionality and parameter interaction, estimating parameters of an LSM is a challenging task. Sensitivity analysis (SA is a tool that can screen out the most influential parameters on model outputs. In this study, we conducted parameter screening for six output fluxes for the Common Land Model: sensible heat, latent heat, upward longwave radiation, net radiation, soil temperature and soil moisture. A total of 40 adjustable parameters were considered. Five qualitative SA methods, including local, sum-of-trees, multivariate adaptive regression splines, delta test and Morris methods, were compared. The proper sampling design and sufficient sample size necessary to effectively screen out the sensitive parameters were examined. We found that there are 2–8 sensitive parameters, depending on the output type, and about 400 samples are adequate to reliably identify the most sensitive parameters. We also employed a revised Sobol' sensitivity method to quantify the importance of all parameters. The total effects of the parameters were used to assess the contribution of each parameter to the total variances of the model outputs. The results confirmed that global SA methods can generally identify the most sensitive parameters effectively, while local SA methods result in type I errors (i.e., sensitive parameters labeled as insensitive or type II errors (i.e., insensitive parameters labeled as sensitive. Finally, we evaluated and confirmed the screening results for their consistency with the physical interpretation of the model parameters.

  17. Soil physical properties influencing the fitting parameters in Philip and Kostiakov infiltration models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mbagwu, J.S.C.

    1994-05-01

    Among the many models developed for monitoring the infiltration process those of Philip and Kostiakov have been studied in detail because of their simplicity and the ease of estimating their fitting parameters. The important soil physical factors influencing the fitting parameters in these infiltration models are reported in this study. The results of the study show that the single most important soil property affecting the fitting parameters in these models is the effective porosity. 36 refs, 2 figs, 5 tabs

  18. Simultaneous Parameters Identifiability and Estimation of an E. coli Metabolic Network Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kese Pontes Freitas Alberton

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This work proposes a procedure for simultaneous parameters identifiability and estimation in metabolic networks in order to overcome difficulties associated with lack of experimental data and large number of parameters, a common scenario in the modeling of such systems. As case study, the complex real problem of parameters identifiability of the Escherichia coli K-12 W3110 dynamic model was investigated, composed by 18 differential ordinary equations and 35 kinetic rates, containing 125 parameters. With the procedure, model fit was improved for most of the measured metabolites, achieving 58 parameters estimated, including 5 unknown initial conditions. The results indicate that simultaneous parameters identifiability and estimation approach in metabolic networks is appealing, since model fit to the most of measured metabolites was possible even when important measures of intracellular metabolites and good initial estimates of parameters are not available.

  19. Comparison of parameter estimation algorithms in hydrological modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blasone, Roberta-Serena; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2006-01-01

    Local search methods have been applied successfully in calibration of simple groundwater models, but might fail in locating the optimum for models of increased complexity, due to the more complex shape of the response surface. Global search algorithms have been demonstrated to perform well......-Marquardt-Levenberg algorithm (implemented in the PEST software), when applied to a steady-state and a transient groundwater model. The results show that PEST can have severe problems in locating the global optimum and in being trapped in local regions of attractions. The global SCE procedure is, in general, more effective...... and provides a better coverage of the Pareto optimal solutions at a lower computational cost....

  20. Hydrological model parameter dimensionality is a weak measure of prediction uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pande, S.; Arkesteijn, L.; Savenije, H.; Bastidas, L. A.

    2015-04-01

    This paper shows that instability of hydrological system representation in response to different pieces of information and associated prediction uncertainty is a function of model complexity. After demonstrating the connection between unstable model representation and model complexity, complexity is analyzed in a step by step manner. This is done measuring differences between simulations of a model under different realizations of input forcings. Algorithms are then suggested to estimate model complexity. Model complexities of the two model structures, SAC-SMA (Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting) and its simplified version SIXPAR (Six Parameter Model), are computed on resampled input data sets from basins that span across the continental US. The model complexities for SIXPAR are estimated for various parameter ranges. It is shown that complexity of SIXPAR increases with lower storage capacity and/or higher recession coefficients. Thus it is argued that a conceptually simple model structure, such as SIXPAR, can be more complex than an intuitively more complex model structure, such as SAC-SMA for certain parameter ranges. We therefore contend that magnitudes of feasible model parameters influence the complexity of the model selection problem just as parameter dimensionality (number of parameters) does and that parameter dimensionality is an incomplete indicator of stability of hydrological model selection and prediction problems.

  1. Personalization of models with many model parameters: an efficient sensitivity analysis approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donders, W P; Huberts, W; van de Vosse, F N; Delhaas, T

    2015-10-01

    Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis are indispensable for patient-specific applications of models that enhance diagnosis or aid decision-making. Variance-based sensitivity analysis methods, which apportion each fraction of the output uncertainty (variance) to the effects of individual input parameters or their interactions, are considered the gold standard. The variance portions are called the Sobol sensitivity indices and can be estimated by a Monte Carlo (MC) approach (e.g., Saltelli's method [1]) or by employing a metamodel (e.g., the (generalized) polynomial chaos expansion (gPCE) [2, 3]). All these methods require a large number of model evaluations when estimating the Sobol sensitivity indices for models with many parameters [4]. To reduce the computational cost, we introduce a two-step approach. In the first step, a subset of important parameters is identified for each output of interest using the screening method of Morris [5]. In the second step, a quantitative variance-based sensitivity analysis is performed using gPCE. Efficient sampling strategies are introduced to minimize the number of model runs required to obtain the sensitivity indices for models considering multiple outputs. The approach is tested using a model that was developed for predicting post-operative flows after creation of a vascular access for renal failure patients. We compare the sensitivity indices obtained with the novel two-step approach with those obtained from a reference analysis that applies Saltelli's MC method. The two-step approach was found to yield accurate estimates of the sensitivity indices at two orders of magnitude lower computational cost. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Development of simple kinetic models and parameter estimation for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PANCHIGA

    2016-09-28

    Sep 28, 2016 ... estimation for simulation of recombinant human serum albumin ... and recombinant protein production by P. pastoris without requiring complex models. Key words: ..... SDS-PAGE and showed the same molecular size as.

  3. Model parameters conditioning on regional hydrologic signatures for process-based design flood estimation in ungauged basins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biondi, Daniela; De Luca, Davide Luciano

    2015-04-01

    The use of rainfall-runoff models represents an alternative to statistical approaches (such as at-site or regional flood frequency analysis) for design flood estimation, and constitutes an answer to the increasing need for synthetic design hydrographs (SDHs) associated to a specific return period. However, the lack of streamflow observations and the consequent high uncertainty associated with parameter estimation, usually pose serious limitations to the use of process-based approaches in ungauged catchments, which in contrast represent the majority in practical applications. This work presents the application of a Bayesian procedure that, for a predefined rainfall-runoff model, allows for the assessment of posterior parameters distribution, using the limited and uncertain information available for the response of an ungauged catchment (Bulygina et al. 2009; 2011). The use of regional estimates of river flow statistics, interpreted as hydrological signatures that measure theoretically relevant system process behaviours (Gupta et al. 2008), within this framework represents a valuable option and has shown significant developments in recent literature to constrain the plausible model response and to reduce the uncertainty in ungauged basins. In this study we rely on the first three L-moments of annual streamflow maxima, for which regressions are available from previous studies (Biondi et al. 2012; Laio et al. 2011). The methodology was carried out for a catchment located in southern Italy, and used within a Monte Carlo scheme (MCs) considering both event-based and continuous simulation approaches for design flood estimation. The applied procedure offers promising perspectives to perform model calibration and uncertainty analysis in ungauged basins; moreover, in the context of design flood estimation, process-based methods coupled with MCs approach have the advantage of providing simulated floods uncertainty analysis that represents an asset in risk-based decision

  4. Heuristic Sensitivity Analysis for Baker's Yeast Model Parameters

    OpenAIRE

    Leão, Celina P.; Soares, Filomena O.

    2004-01-01

    The baker's yeast, essentially composed by living cells of Saccharomyces cerevisiae, used in the bread making and beer industries as a microorganism, has an important industrial role. The simulation procedure represents then a necessary tool to understand clearly the baker's yeast fermentation process. The use of mathematical models based on mass balance equations requires the knowledge of the reaction kinetics, thermodynamics, and transport and physical properties. Models may be more or less...

  5. EMF 7 model comparisons: key relationships and parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hickman, B.G.

    1983-12-01

    A simplified textbook model of aggregate demand and supply interprets the similarities and differences in the price and income responses of the various EMF 7 models to oil and policy shocks. The simplified model is a marriage of Hicks' classic IS-LM formulation of the Keynesian theory of effective demand with a rudimentary model of aggregate supply, combining a structural Phillips curve for wage determination and a markup theory of price determination. The reduced-form income equation from the fix-price IS-LM model is used to define an aggregate demand (AD) locus in P-Y space, showing alternative pairs of the implicit GNP deflator and real GNP which would simultaneously satisfy the saving-investment identity and the condition for money market equilibrium. An aggregate supply (AS) schedule is derived by a similar reduction of relations between output and labor demand, unemployment and wage inflation, and the wage-price-productivity nexus governing markup pricing. Given a particular econometric model it is possible to derive IS and LM curves algebraically. The resulting locuses would show alternative combinations of interest rate and real income which equilibrate real income identity on the IS side and the demand and supply of money on the LM side. By further substitution the reduced form fix-price income relation could be obtained for direct quantification of the AD locus. The AS schedule is obtainable by algebraic reduction of the structural supply side equations.

  6. Error propagation of partial least squares for parameters optimization in NIR modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Chenzhao; Dai, Shengyun; Qiao, Yanjiang; Wu, Zhisheng

    2018-03-05

    A novel methodology is proposed to determine the error propagation of partial least-square (PLS) for parameters optimization in near-infrared (NIR) modeling. The parameters include spectral pretreatment, latent variables and variable selection. In this paper, an open source dataset (corn) and a complicated dataset (Gardenia) were used to establish PLS models under different modeling parameters. And error propagation of modeling parameters for water quantity in corn and geniposide quantity in Gardenia were presented by both type І and type II error. For example, when variable importance in the projection (VIP), interval partial least square (iPLS) and backward interval partial least square (BiPLS) variable selection algorithms were used for geniposide in Gardenia, compared with synergy interval partial least squares (SiPLS), the error weight varied from 5% to 65%, 55% and 15%. The results demonstrated how and what extent the different modeling parameters affect error propagation of PLS for parameters optimization in NIR modeling. The larger the error weight, the worse the model. Finally, our trials finished a powerful process in developing robust PLS models for corn and Gardenia under the optimal modeling parameters. Furthermore, it could provide a significant guidance for the selection of modeling parameters of other multivariate calibration models. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  7. Error propagation of partial least squares for parameters optimization in NIR modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Chenzhao; Dai, Shengyun; Qiao, Yanjiang; Wu, Zhisheng

    2018-03-01

    A novel methodology is proposed to determine the error propagation of partial least-square (PLS) for parameters optimization in near-infrared (NIR) modeling. The parameters include spectral pretreatment, latent variables and variable selection. In this paper, an open source dataset (corn) and a complicated dataset (Gardenia) were used to establish PLS models under different modeling parameters. And error propagation of modeling parameters for water quantity in corn and geniposide quantity in Gardenia were presented by both type І and type II error. For example, when variable importance in the projection (VIP), interval partial least square (iPLS) and backward interval partial least square (BiPLS) variable selection algorithms were used for geniposide in Gardenia, compared with synergy interval partial least squares (SiPLS), the error weight varied from 5% to 65%, 55% and 15%. The results demonstrated how and what extent the different modeling parameters affect error propagation of PLS for parameters optimization in NIR modeling. The larger the error weight, the worse the model. Finally, our trials finished a powerful process in developing robust PLS models for corn and Gardenia under the optimal modeling parameters. Furthermore, it could provide a significant guidance for the selection of modeling parameters of other multivariate calibration models.

  8. Deriving global parameter estimates for the Noah land surface model using FLUXNET and machine learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaney, Nathaniel W.; Herman, Jonathan D.; Ek, Michael B.; Wood, Eric F.

    2016-11-01

    With their origins in numerical weather prediction and climate modeling, land surface models aim to accurately partition the surface energy balance. An overlooked challenge in these schemes is the role of model parameter uncertainty, particularly at unmonitored sites. This study provides global parameter estimates for the Noah land surface model using 85 eddy covariance sites in the global FLUXNET network. The at-site parameters are first calibrated using a Latin Hypercube-based ensemble of the most sensitive parameters, determined by the Sobol method, to be the minimum stomatal resistance (rs,min), the Zilitinkevich empirical constant (Czil), and the bare soil evaporation exponent (fxexp). Calibration leads to an increase in the mean Kling-Gupta Efficiency performance metric from 0.54 to 0.71. These calibrated parameter sets are then related to local environmental characteristics using the Extra-Trees machine learning algorithm. The fitted Extra-Trees model is used to map the optimal parameter sets over the globe at a 5 km spatial resolution. The leave-one-out cross validation of the mapped parameters using the Noah land surface model suggests that there is the potential to skillfully relate calibrated model parameter sets to local environmental characteristics. The results demonstrate the potential to use FLUXNET to tune the parameterizations of surface fluxes in land surface models and to provide improved parameter estimates over the globe.

  9. Description of the hexadecapole deformation parameter in the sdg interacting boson model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Yuxin; Sun Di; Wang Jiajun; Han Qizhi

    1998-01-01

    The hexadecapole deformation parameter β 4 of the rare-earth and actinide nuclei is investigated in the framework of the sdg interacting boson model. An explicit relation between the geometric hexadecapole deformation parameter β 4 and the intrinsic deformation parameters ε 4 , ε 2 are obtained. The deformation parameters β 4 of the rare-earths and actinides are determined without any free parameter. The calculated results agree with experimental data well. It also shows that the SU(5) limit of the sdg interacting boson model can describe the β 4 systematics as well as the SU(3) limit

  10. Description of the Hexadecapole Deformation Parameter in the sdg Interacting Boson Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yu-xin; Sun, Di; Wang, Jia-jun; Han, Qi-zhi

    1998-04-01

    The hexadecapole deformation parameter β4 of the rare-earth and actinide nuclei is investigated in the framework of the sdg interacing boson model. An explicit relation between the geometric hexadecapole deformation parameter β4 and the intrinsic deformation parameters epsilon4, epsilon2 are obtained. The deformation parameters β4 of the rare-earths and actinides are determined without any free parameter. The calculated results agree with experimental data well. It also shows that the SU(5) limit of the sdg interacting boson model can describe the β4 systematics as well as the SU(3) limit.

  11. Dynamics of a neuron model in different two-dimensional parameter-spaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rech, Paulo C.

    2011-01-01

    We report some two-dimensional parameter-space diagrams numerically obtained for the multi-parameter Hindmarsh-Rose neuron model. Several different parameter planes are considered, and we show that regardless of the combination of parameters, a typical scenario is preserved: for all choice of two parameters, the parameter-space presents a comb-shaped chaotic region immersed in a large periodic region. We also show that exist regions close these chaotic region, separated by the comb teeth, organized themselves in period-adding bifurcation cascades. - Research highlights: → We report parameter-spaces obtained for the Hindmarsh-Rose neuron model. → Regardless of the combination of parameters, a typical scenario is preserved. → The scenario presents a comb-shaped chaotic region immersed in a periodic region. → Periodic regions near the chaotic region are in period-adding bifurcation cascades.

  12. Dynamics of a neuron model in different two-dimensional parameter-spaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rech, Paulo C.

    2011-03-01

    We report some two-dimensional parameter-space diagrams numerically obtained for the multi-parameter Hindmarsh-Rose neuron model. Several different parameter planes are considered, and we show that regardless of the combination of parameters, a typical scenario is preserved: for all choice of two parameters, the parameter-space presents a comb-shaped chaotic region immersed in a large periodic region. We also show that exist regions close these chaotic region, separated by the comb teeth, organized themselves in period-adding bifurcation cascades.

  13. Development of wavelet-ANN models to predict water quality parameters in Hilo Bay, Pacific Ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alizadeh, Mohamad Javad; Kavianpour, Mohamad Reza

    2015-09-15

    The main objective of this study is to apply artificial neural network (ANN) and wavelet-neural network (WNN) models for predicting a variety of ocean water quality parameters. In this regard, several water quality parameters in Hilo Bay, Pacific Ocean, are taken under consideration. Different combinations of water quality parameters are applied as input variables to predict daily values of salinity, temperature and DO as well as hourly values of DO. The results demonstrate that the WNN models are superior to the ANN models. Also, the hourly models developed for DO prediction outperform the daily models of DO. For the daily models, the most accurate model has R equal to 0.96, while for the hourly model it reaches up to 0.98. Overall, the results show the ability of the model to monitor the ocean parameters, in condition with missing data, or when regular measurement and monitoring are impossible. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Parameter estimation in stochastic mammogram model by heuristic optimization techniques.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Selvan, S.E.; Xavier, C.C.; Karssemeijer, N.; Sequeira, J.; Cherian, R.A.; Dhala, B.Y.

    2006-01-01

    The appearance of disproportionately large amounts of high-density breast parenchyma in mammograms has been found to be a strong indicator of the risk of developing breast cancer. Hence, the breast density model is popular for risk estimation or for monitoring breast density change in prevention or

  15. Dynamics of 'abc' and 'qd' constant parameters induction generator model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fajardo-R, L.A.; Medina, A.; Iov, F.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, parametric sensibility effects on dynamics of the induction generator in the presence of local perturbations are investigated. The study is conducted in a 3x2 MW wind park dealing with abc, qd0 and qd reduced order, induction generator model respectively, and with fluxes as state...

  16. Parameter interdependence and succes of skeletal muscle modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijing, P.A.J.B.M.

    1995-01-01

    In muscle and movement modelling it is almost invariably assumed that force actually exerted is determined by several independent factors. This review considers the fact that length force characteristics are not a relatively fixed property of muscle but should be considered the product of a

  17. Development of simple kinetic models and parameter estimation for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In order to describe and predict the growth and expression of recombinant proteins by using a genetically modified Pichia pastoris, we developed a number of unstructured models based on growth kinetic equation, fed-batch mass balance and the assumptions of constant cell and protein yields. The growth of P. pastoris on ...

  18. A Parameter Estimation Method for Dynamic Computational Cognitive Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thilakarathne, D.J.

    2015-01-01

    A dynamic computational cognitive model can be used to explore a selected complex cognitive phenomenon by providing some features or patterns over time. More specifically, it can be used to simulate, analyse and explain the behaviour of such a cognitive phenomenon. It generates output data in the

  19. Continuum model for masonry: Parameter estimation and validation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lourenço, P.B.; Rots, J.G.; Blaauwendraad, J.

    1998-01-01

    A novel yield criterion that includes different strengths along each material axis is presented. The criterion includes two different fracture energies in tension and two different fracture energies in compression. The ability of the model to represent the inelastic behavior of orthotropic materials

  20. Varying parameter models to accommodate dynamic promotion effects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Foekens, E.W.; Leeflang, P.S.H.; Wittink, D.R.

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to examine the dynamic effects of sales promotions. We create dynamic brand sales models (for weekly store-level scanner data) by relating store intercepts and a brand's own price elasticity to a measure of the cumulated previous price discounts - amount and time - for

  1. Parameter Estimation and Model Selection for Mixtures of Truncated Exponentials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Langseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre; Rumí, Rafael

    2010-01-01

    Bayesian networks with mixtures of truncated exponentials (MTEs) support efficient inference algorithms and provide a flexible way of modeling hybrid domains (domains containing both discrete and continuous variables). On the other hand, estimating an MTE from data has turned out to be a difficul...

  2. Winkler's single-parameter subgrade model from the perspective of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... tensor are taken into consideration, whereas the shear stresses are intentionally dropped with the purpose of providing a useful perspective, with which Winkler's model and its associated coefficient of subgrade reaction can be viewed. The formulation takes into account the variation of the elasticity modulus with depth.

  3. A sEMG model with experimentally based simulation parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Katherine A; Shimada, Hiroshima; Kumar, Dinesh K; Arjunan, Sridhar P

    2010-01-01

    A differential, time-invariant, surface electromyogram (sEMG) model has been implemented. While it is based on existing EMG models, the novelty of this implementation is that it assigns more accurate distributions of variables to create realistic motor unit (MU) characteristics. Variables such as muscle fibre conduction velocity, jitter (the change in the interpulse interval between subsequent action potential firings) and motor unit size have been considered to follow normal distributions about an experimentally obtained mean. In addition, motor unit firing frequencies have been considered to have non-linear and type based distributions that are in accordance with experimental results. Motor unit recruitment thresholds have been considered to be related to the MU type. The model has been used to simulate single channel differential sEMG signals from voluntary, isometric contractions of the biceps brachii muscle. The model has been experimentally verified by conducting experiments on three subjects. Comparison between simulated signals and experimental recordings shows that the Root Mean Square (RMS) increases linearly with force in both cases. The simulated signals also show similar values and rates of change of RMS to the experimental signals.

  4. Positioning performance of the NTCM model driven by GPS Klobuchar model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoque, Mohammed Mainul; Jakowski, Norbert; Berdermann, Jens

    2018-03-01

    Users of the Global Positioning System (GPS) utilize the Ionospheric Correction Algorithm (ICA) also known as Klobuchar model for correcting ionospheric signal delay or range error. Recently, we developed an ionosphere correction algorithm called NTCM-Klobpar model for single frequency GNSS applications. The model is driven by a parameter computed from GPS Klobuchar model and consecutively can be used instead of the GPS Klobuchar model for ionospheric corrections. In the presented work we compare the positioning solutions obtained using NTCM-Klobpar with those using the Klobuchar model. Our investigation using worldwide ground GPS data from a quiet and a perturbed ionospheric and geomagnetic activity period of 17 days each shows that the 24-hour prediction performance of the NTCM-Klobpar is better than the GPS Klobuchar model in global average. The root mean squared deviation of the 3D position errors are found to be about 0.24 and 0.45 m less for the NTCM-Klobpar compared to the GPS Klobuchar model during quiet and perturbed condition, respectively. The presented algorithm has the potential to continuously improve the accuracy of GPS single frequency mass market devices with only little software modification.

  5. A Comparison of Grizzly Bear Demographic Parameters Estimated from Non-Spatial and Spatial Open Population Capture-Recapture Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whittington, Jesse; Sawaya, Michael A

    2015-01-01

    Capture-recapture studies are frequently used to monitor the status and trends of wildlife populations. Detection histories from individual animals are used to estimate probability of detection and abundance or density. The accuracy of abundance and density estimates depends on the ability to model factors affecting detection probability. Non-spatial capture-recapture models have recently evolved into spatial capture-recapture models that directly include the effect of distances between an animal's home range centre and trap locations on detection probability. Most studies comparing non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture biases focussed on single year models and no studies have compared the accuracy of demographic parameter estimates from open population models. We applied open population non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture models to three years of grizzly bear DNA-based data from Banff National Park and simulated data sets. The two models produced similar estimates of grizzly bear apparent survival, per capita recruitment, and population growth rates but the spatial capture-recapture models had better fit. Simulations showed that spatial capture-recapture models produced more accurate parameter estimates with better credible interval coverage than non-spatial capture-recapture models. Non-spatial capture-recapture models produced negatively biased estimates of apparent survival and positively biased estimates of per capita recruitment. The spatial capture-recapture grizzly bear population growth rates and 95% highest posterior density averaged across the three years were 0.925 (0.786-1.071) for females, 0.844 (0.703-0.975) for males, and 0.882 (0.779-0.981) for females and males combined. The non-spatial capture-recapture population growth rates were 0.894 (0.758-1.024) for females, 0.825 (0.700-0.948) for males, and 0.863 (0.771-0.957) for both sexes. The combination of low densities, low reproductive rates, and predominantly negative population growth

  6. A Comparison of Grizzly Bear Demographic Parameters Estimated from Non-Spatial and Spatial Open Population Capture-Recapture Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesse Whittington

    Full Text Available Capture-recapture studies are frequently used to monitor the status and trends of wildlife populations. Detection histories from individual animals are used to estimate probability of detection and abundance or density. The accuracy of abundance and density estimates depends on the ability to model factors affecting detection probability. Non-spatial capture-recapture models have recently evolved into spatial capture-recapture models that directly include the effect of distances between an animal's home range centre and trap locations on detection probability. Most studies comparing non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture biases focussed on single year models and no studies have compared the accuracy of demographic parameter estimates from open population models. We applied open population non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture models to three years of grizzly bear DNA-based data from Banff National Park and simulated data sets. The two models produced similar estimates of grizzly bear apparent survival, per capita recruitment, and population growth rates but the spatial capture-recapture models had better fit. Simulations showed that spatial capture-recapture models produced more accurate parameter estimates with better credible interval coverage than non-spatial capture-recapture models. Non-spatial capture-recapture models produced negatively biased estimates of apparent survival and positively biased estimates of per capita recruitment. The spatial capture-recapture grizzly bear population growth rates and 95% highest posterior density averaged across the three years were 0.925 (0.786-1.071 for females, 0.844 (0.703-0.975 for males, and 0.882 (0.779-0.981 for females and males combined. The non-spatial capture-recapture population growth rates were 0.894 (0.758-1.024 for females, 0.825 (0.700-0.948 for males, and 0.863 (0.771-0.957 for both sexes. The combination of low densities, low reproductive rates, and predominantly negative

  7. Orthodontic treatment for posterior crossbites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agostino, Paola; Ugolini, Alessandro; Signori, Alessio; Silvestrini-Biavati, Armando; Harrison, Jayne E; Riley, Philip

    2014-08-08

    A posterior crossbite occurs when the top back teeth bite inside the bottom back teeth. When it affects one side of the mouth, the lower jaw may have to move to one side to allow the back teeth to meet together. Several treatments have been recommended to correct this problem. Some treatments widen the upper teeth while others are directed at treating the cause of the posterior crossbite (e.g. breathing problems or sucking habits). Most treatments have been used at each stage of dental development. This is an update of a Cochrane review first published in 2001. To assess the effects of orthodontic treatment for posterior crossbites. We searched the following electronic databases: the Cochrane Oral Health Group's Trials Register (to 21 January 2014), the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (The Cochrane Library 2014, Issue 1), MEDLINE via OVID (1946 to 21 January 2014), and EMBASE via OVID (1980 to 21 January 2014). We searched the US National Institutes of Health Trials Register and the World Health Organization (WHO) Clinical Trials Registry Platform for ongoing trials. We placed no restrictions on the language or date of publication when searching the electronic databases. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of orthodontic treatment for posterior crossbites in children and adults. Two review authors, independently and in duplicate, screened the results of the electronic searches, and extracted data and assessed the risk of bias of the included studies. We attempted to contact the first named authors of the included studies for missing data and for clarification. We used risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to summarise dichotomous (event) data, and mean differences (MD) with 95% CIs to summarise continuous data. We performed meta-analyses using fixed-effect models (we would have used random-effects models if we had included four or more studies in a meta-analysis) when comparisons and outcomes were sufficiently similar. We

  8. Emulation of a complex global aerosol model to quantify sensitivity to uncertain parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. A. Lee

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Sensitivity analysis of atmospheric models is necessary to identify the processes that lead to uncertainty in model predictions, to help understand model diversity through comparison of driving processes, and to prioritise research. Assessing the effect of parameter uncertainty in complex models is challenging and often limited by CPU constraints. Here we present a cost-effective application of variance-based sensitivity analysis to quantify the sensitivity of a 3-D global aerosol model to uncertain parameters. A Gaussian process emulator is used to estimate the model output across multi-dimensional parameter space, using information from a small number of model runs at points chosen using a Latin hypercube space-filling design. Gaussian process emulation is a Bayesian approach that uses information from the model runs along with some prior assumptions about the model behaviour to predict model output everywhere in the uncertainty space. We use the Gaussian process emulator to calculate the percentage of expected output variance explained by uncertainty in global aerosol model parameters and their interactions. To demonstrate the technique, we show examples of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN sensitivity to 8 model parameters in polluted and remote marine environments as a function of altitude. In the polluted environment 95 % of the variance of CCN concentration is described by uncertainty in the 8 parameters (excluding their interaction effects and is dominated by the uncertainty in the sulphur emissions, which explains 80 % of the variance. However, in the remote region parameter interaction effects become important, accounting for up to 40 % of the total variance. Some parameters are shown to have a negligible individual effect but a substantial interaction effect. Such sensitivities would not be detected in the commonly used single parameter perturbation experiments, which would therefore underpredict total uncertainty. Gaussian process

  9. Posterior glenoid rim deficiency in recurrent (atraumatic) posterior shoulder instability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weishaupt, D.; Zanetti, M.; Hodler, J.; Nyffeler, R.W.; Gerber, C.

    2000-01-01

    Objective. To assess the shape of the posterior glenoid rim in patients with recurrent (atraumatic) posterior instability.Design and patients. CT examinations of 15 shoulders with recurrent (atraumatic) posterior instability were reviewed in masked fashion with regard to abnormalities of the glenoid shape, specifically of its posterior rim. The glenoid version was also assessed. The findings were compared with the findings in 15 shoulders with recurrent anterior shoulder instability and 15 shoulders without instability. For all patients, surgical correlation was available.Results. Fourteen of the 15 (93%) shoulders with recurrent (atraumatic) posterior shoulder instability had a deficiency of the posteroinferior glenoid rim. In patients with recurrent anterior instability or stable shoulders such deficiencies were less common (60% and 73%, respectively). The craniocaudal length of the deficiencies was largest in patients with posterior instability. When a posteroinferior deficiency with a craniocaudal length of 12 mm or more was defined as abnormal, sensitivity and specificity for diagnosing recurrent (atraumatic) posterior instability were 86.7% and 83.3%, respectively. There was a statistically significant difference in glenoid version between shoulders with posterior instability and stable shoulders (P=0.01).Conclusion. Recurrent (atraumatic) posterior shoulder instability should be considered in patients with a bony deficiency of the posteroinferior glenoid rim with a craniocaudal length of more than 12 mm. (orig.)

  10. Modelling of nonhomogeneous atmosphere in NPP containment using lumped-parameter model based on CFD calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kljenak, I.; Mavko, B.; Babic, M.

    2005-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: The modelling and simulation of atmosphere mixing and stratification in nuclear power plant containments is a topic, which is currently being intensely investigated. With the increase of computer power, it has now become possible to model these phenomena with a local instantaneous description, using so-called Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) codes. However, calculations with these codes still take relatively long times. An alternative faster approach, which is also being applied, is to model nonhomogeneous atmosphere with lumped-parameter codes by dividing larger control volumes into smaller volumes, in which conditions are modelled as homogeneous. The flow between smaller volumes is modelled using one-dimensional approaches, which includes the prescription of flow loss coefficients. However, some authors have questioned this approach, as it appears that atmosphere stratification may sometimes be well simulated only by adjusting flow loss coefficients to adequate 'artificial' values that are case-dependent. To start the resolution of this issue, a modelling of nonhomogeneous atmosphere with a lumped-parameter code is proposed, where the subdivision of a large volume into smaller volumes is based on results of CFD simulations. The basic idea is to use the results of a CFD simulation to define regions, in which the flow velocities have roughly the same direction. These regions are then modelled as control volumes in a lumped-parameter model. In the proposed work, this procedure was applied to a simulation of an experiment of atmosphere mixing and stratification, which was performed in the TOSQAN facility. The facility is located at the Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN) in Saclay (France) and consists of a cylindrical vessel (volume: 7 m3), in which gases are injected. In the experiment, which was also proposed for the OECD/NEA International Standard Problem No.47, air was initially present in the vessel, and

  11. A new sewage exfiltration model--parameters and calibration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karpf, Christian; Krebs, Peter

    2011-01-01

    Exfiltration of waste water from sewer systems represents a potential danger for the soil and the aquifer. Common models, which are used to describe the exfiltration process, are based on the law of Darcy, extended by a more or less detailed consideration of the expansion of leaks, the characteristics of the soil and the colmation layer. But, due to the complexity of the exfiltration process, the calibration of these models includes a significant uncertainty. In this paper, a new exfiltration approach is introduced, which implements the dynamics of the clogging process and the structural conditions near sewer leaks. The calibration is realised according to experimental studies and analysis of groundwater infiltration to sewers. Furthermore, exfiltration rates and the sensitivity of the approach are estimated and evaluated, respectively, by Monte-Carlo simulations.

  12. Sensitivity analysis of specific activity model parameters for environmental transport of 3H and dose assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rout, S.; Mishra, D.G.; Ravi, P.M.; Tripathi, R.M.

    2016-01-01

    Tritium is one of the radionuclides likely to get released to the environment from Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors. Environmental models are extensively used to quantify the complex environmental transport processes of radionuclides and also to assess the impact to the environment. Model parameters exerting the significant influence on model results are identified through a sensitivity analysis (SA). SA is the study of how the variation (uncertainty) in the output of a mathematical model can be apportioned, qualitatively or quantitatively, to different sources of variation in the input parameters. This study was designed to identify the sensitive model parameters of specific activity model (TRS 1616, IAEA) for environmental transfer of 3 H following release to air and then to vegetation and animal products. Model includes parameters such as air to soil transfer factor (CRs), Tissue Free Water 3 H to Organically Bound 3 H ratio (Rp), Relative humidity (RH), WCP (fractional water content) and WEQp (water equivalent factor) any change in these parameters leads to change in 3 H level in vegetation and animal products consequently change in dose due to ingestion. All these parameters are function of climate and/or plant which change with time, space and species. Estimation of these parameters at every time is a time consuming and also required sophisticated instrumentation. Therefore it is necessary to identify the sensitive parameters and freeze the values of least sensitive parameters at constant values for more accurate estimation of 3 H dose in short time for routine assessment

  13. Modeling Ne-21 NMR parameters for carbon nanosystems

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kupka, T.; Nieradka, M.; Kaminský, Jakub; Stobinski, L.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 51, č. 10 (2013), s. 676-681 ISSN 0749-1581 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP208/11/0105; GA MŠk(CZ) LH11033 Grant - others:AV ČR(CZ) M200551205 Institutional support: RVO:61388963 Keywords : Ne-21 NMR * GIAO NMR * molecular modeling * carbon nanostructures Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry Impact factor: 1.559, year: 2013

  14. Nonparametric Estimation of Regression Parameters in Measurement Error Models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ehsanes Saleh, A.K.M.D.; Picek, J.; Kalina, Jan

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 67, č. 2 (2009), s. 177-200 ISSN 0026-1424 Grant - others:GA AV ČR(CZ) IAA101120801; GA MŠk(CZ) LC06024 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : asymptotic relative efficiency(ARE) * asymptotic theory * emaculate mode * Me model * R-estimation * Reliabilty ratio(RR) Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research

  15. Parameter estimation and uncertainty assessment in hydrological modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blasone, Roberta-Serena

    En rationel og effektiv vandressourceadministration forudsætter indsigt i og forståelse af de hydrologiske processer samt præcise opgørelser af de tilgængelige vandmængder i både overfladevands- og grundvandsmagasiner. Til det formål er hydrologiske modeller et uomgængeligt værktøj. I de senest 1...

  16. Parameter Estimation for Dynamic Model of the Financial System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veronika Novotná

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Economy can be considered a large, open system which is influenced by fluctuations, both internal and external. Based on non-linear dynamics theory, the dynamic models of a financial system try to provide a new perspective by explaining the complicated behaviour of the system not as a result of external influences or random behaviour, but as a result of the behaviour and trends of the system’s internal structures. The present article analyses a chaotic financial system from the point of view of determining the time delay of the model variables – the interest rate, investment demand, and price index. The theory is briefly explained in the first chapters of the paper and serves as a basis for formulating the relations. This article aims to determine the appropriate length of time delay variables in a dynamic model of the financial system in order to express the real economic situation and respect the effect of the history of factors under consideration. The determination of the delay length is carried out for the time series representing Euro area. The methodology for the determination of the time delay is illustrated by a concrete example.

  17. Parameter Estimation of Structural Equation Modeling Using Bayesian Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dewi Kurnia Sari

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Leadership is a process of influencing, directing or giving an example of employees in order to achieve the objectives of the organization and is a key element in the effectiveness of the organization. In addition to the style of leadership, the success of an organization or company in achieving its objectives can also be influenced by the commitment of the organization. Where organizational commitment is a commitment created by each individual for the betterment of the organization. The purpose of this research is to obtain a model of leadership style and organizational commitment to job satisfaction and employee performance, and determine the factors that influence job satisfaction and employee performance using SEM with Bayesian approach. This research was conducted at Statistics FNI employees in Malang, with 15 people. The result of this study showed that the measurement model, all significant indicators measure each latent variable. Meanwhile in the structural model, it was concluded there are a significant difference between the variables of Leadership Style and Organizational Commitment toward Job Satisfaction directly as well as a significant difference between Job Satisfaction on Employee Performance. As for the influence of Leadership Style and variable Organizational Commitment on Employee Performance directly declared insignificant.

  18. An improved state-parameter analysis of ecosystem models using data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, M.; Liu, S.; Tieszen, L.L.; Hollinger, D.Y.

    2008-01-01

    Much of the effort spent in developing data assimilation methods for carbon dynamics analysis has focused on estimating optimal values for either model parameters or state variables. The main weakness of estimating parameter values alone (i.e., without considering state variables) is that all errors from input, output, and model structure are attributed to model parameter uncertainties. On the other hand, the accuracy of estimating state variables may be lowered if the temporal evolution of parameter values is not incorporated. This research develops a smoothed ensemble Kalman filter (SEnKF) by combining ensemble Kalman filter with kernel smoothing technique. SEnKF has following characteristics: (1) to estimate simultaneously the model states and parameters through concatenating unknown parameters and state variables into a joint state vector; (2) to mitigate dramatic, sudden changes of parameter values in parameter sampling and parameter evolution process, and control narrowing of parameter variance which results in filter divergence through adjusting smoothing factor in kernel smoothing algorithm; (3) to assimilate recursively data into the model and thus detect possible time variation of parameters; and (4) to address properly various sources of uncertainties stemming from input, output and parameter uncertainties. The SEnKF is tested by assimilating observed fluxes of carbon dioxide and environmental driving factor data from an AmeriFlux forest station located near Howland, Maine, USA, into a partition eddy flux model. Our analysis demonstrates that model parameters, such as light use efficiency, respiration coefficients, minimum and optimum temperatures for photosynthetic activity, and others, are highly constrained by eddy flux data at daily-to-seasonal time scales. The SEnKF stabilizes parameter values quickly regardless of the initial values of the parameters. Potential ecosystem light use efficiency demonstrates a strong seasonality. Results show that the

  19. Comparative study for different statistical models to optimize cutting parameters of CNC end milling machines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Berry, A.; El-Berry, A.; Al-Bossly, A.

    2010-01-01

    In machining operation, the quality of surface finish is an important requirement for many work pieces. Thus, that is very important to optimize cutting parameters for controlling the required manufacturing quality. Surface roughness parameter (Ra) in mechanical parts depends on turning parameters during the turning process. In the development of predictive models, cutting parameters of feed, cutting speed, depth of cut, are considered as model variables. For this purpose, this study focuses on comparing various machining experiments which using CNC vertical machining center, work pieces was aluminum 6061. Multiple regression models are used to predict the surface roughness at different experiments.

  20. Cosmological-model-parameter determination from satellite-acquired type Ia and IIP Supernova Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Podariu, Silviu; Nugent, Peter; Ratra, Bharat

    2000-01-01

    We examine the constraints that satellite-acquired Type Ia and IIP supernova apparent magnitude versus redshift data will place on cosmological model parameters in models with and without a constant or time-variable cosmological constant lambda. High-quality data which could be acquired in the near future will result in tight constraints on these parameters. For example, if all other parameters of a spatially-flat model with a constant lambda are known, the supernova data should constrain the non-relativistic matter density parameter omega to better than 1 (2, 0.5) at 1 sigma with neutral (worst case, best case) assumptions about data quality

  1. Parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis for a mathematical model with time delays of leukemia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cândea, Doina; Halanay, Andrei; Rǎdulescu, Rodica; Tǎlmaci, Rodica

    2017-01-01

    We consider a system of nonlinear delay differential equations that describes the interaction between three competing cell populations: healthy, leukemic and anti-leukemia T cells involved in Chronic Myeloid Leukemia (CML) under treatment with Imatinib. The aim of this work is to establish which model parameters are the most important in the success or failure of leukemia remission under treatment using a sensitivity analysis of the model parameters. For the most significant parameters of the model which affect the evolution of CML disease during Imatinib treatment we try to estimate the realistic values using some experimental data. For these parameters, steady states are calculated and their stability is analyzed and biologically interpreted.

  2. The stabilizing potential of anterior, posterior and combined techniques for the reconstruction of a 2-level cervical corpectomy model: biomechanical study and first results of ATPS prototyping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koller, Heiko; Schmidt, Rene; Mayer, Michael; Hitzl, Wolfgang; Zenner, Juliane; Midderhoff, Stefan; Middendorf, Stefan; Graf, Nicolaus; Gräf, Nicolaus; Resch, H; Wilke, Hans-Joachim; Willke, Hans-Joachim

    2010-12-01

    Clinical studies reported frequent failure with anterior instrumented multilevel cervical corpectomies. Hence, posterior augmentation was recommended but necessitates a second approach. Thus, an author group evaluated the feasibility, pull-out characteristics, and accuracy of anterior transpedicular screw (ATPS) fixation. Although first success with clinical application of ATPS has already been reported, no data exist on biomechanical characteristics of an ATPS-plate system enabling transpedicular end-level fixation in advanced instabilities. Therefore, we evaluated biomechanical qualities of an ATPS prototype C4-C7 for reduction of range of motion (ROM) and primary stability in a non-destructive setup among five constructs: anterior plate, posterior all-lateral mass screw construct, posterior construct with lateral mass screws C5 + C6 and end-level fixation using pedicle screws unilaterally or bilaterally, and a 360° construct. 12 human spines C3-T1 were divided into two groups. Four constructs were tested in group 1 and three in group 2; the ATPS prototypes were tested in both groups. Specimens were subjected to flexibility test in a spine motion tester at intact state and after 2-level corpectomy C5-C6 with subsequent reconstruction using a distractable cage and one of the osteosynthesis mentioned above. ROM in flexion-extension, axial rotation, and lateral bending was reported as normalized values. All instrumentations but the anterior plate showed significant reduction of ROM for all directions compared to the intact state. The 360° construct outperformed all others in terms of reducing ROM. While there were no significant differences between the 360° and posterior constructs in flexion-extension and lateral bending, the 360° constructs were significantly more stable in axial rotation. Concerning primary stability of ATPS prototypes, there were no significant differences compared to posterior-only constructs in flexion-extension and axial rotation. The

  3. Posterior Probability Matching and Human Perceptual Decision Making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard F Murray

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Probability matching is a classic theory of decision making that was first developed in models of cognition. Posterior probability matching, a variant in which observers match their response probabilities to the posterior probability of each response being correct, is being used increasingly often in models of perception. However, little is known about whether posterior probability matching is consistent with the vast literature on vision and hearing that has developed within signal detection theory. Here we test posterior probability matching models using two tools from detection theory. First, we examine the models' performance in a two-pass experiment, where each block of trials is presented twice, and we measure the proportion of times that the model gives the same response twice to repeated stimuli. We show that at low performance levels, posterior probability matching models give highly inconsistent responses across repeated presentations of identical trials. We find that practised human observers are more consistent across repeated trials than these models predict, and we find some evidence that less practised observers more consistent as well. Second, we compare the performance of posterior probability matching models on a discrimination task to the performance of a theoretical ideal observer that achieves the best possible performance. We find that posterior probability matching is very inefficient at low-to-moderate performance levels, and that human observers can be more efficient than is ever possible according to posterior probability matching models. These findings support classic signal detection models, and rule out a broad class of posterior probability matching models for expert performance on perceptual tasks that range in complexity from contrast discrimination to symmetry detection. However, our findings leave open the possibility that inexperienced observers may show posterior probability matching behaviour, and our methods

  4. Parameter-free methods distinguish Wnt pathway models and guide design of experiments

    KAUST Repository

    MacLean, Adam L.; Rosen, Zvi; Byrne, Helen M.; Harrington, Heather A.

    2015-01-01

    models can fit this time course. We appeal to algebraic methods (concepts from chemical reaction network theory and matroid theory) to analyze the models without recourse to specific parameter values. These approaches provide insight into aspects of Wnt

  5. Estimating Parameters in Physical Models through Bayesian Inversion: A Complete Example

    KAUST Repository

    Allmaras, Moritz; Bangerth, Wolfgang; Linhart, Jean Marie; Polanco, Javier; Wang, Fang; Wang, Kainan; Webster, Jennifer; Zedler, Sarah

    2013-01-01

    All mathematical models of real-world phenomena contain parameters that need to be estimated from measurements, either for realistic predictions or simply to understand the characteristics of the model. Bayesian statistics provides a framework

  6. Irreducible Traumatic Posterior Shoulder Dislocation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blake Collier

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available History of present illness: A 22-year-old male presented to the Emergency Department complaining of right shoulder pain after a motocross accident. He was traveling at approximately 10 mph around a turn when he lost control and was thrown over the handlebars, landing directly on his right shoulder. On arrival, he was holding his arm in adduction and internal rotation. An area of swelling was noted over his anterior shoulder. He was unable to abduct his shoulder. No humeral gapping was noted. He had normal neuro-vascular status distal to the injury. Significant findings: Radiographs demonstrated posterior displacement of the humeral head on the “Y” view (see white arrow and widening of the glenohumeral joint space on anterior-posterior view (see red arrow. The findings were consistent with posterior dislocation and a Hill-Sachs type deformity. Sedation was performed and reduction was attempted using external rotation, traction counter-traction. An immediate “pop” was felt during the procedure. Post-procedure radiographs revealed a persistent posterior subluxation with interlocking at posterior glenoid. CT revealed posterior dislocation with acute depressed impaction deformity medial to the biceps groove with the humeral head perched on the posterior glenoid, interlocked at reverse Hill-Sachs deformity (see blue arrow. Discussion: Posterior shoulder dislocations are rare and represent only 2% of all shoulder dislocations. Posterior shoulder dislocations are missed on initial diagnosis in more than 60% of cases.1 Posterior shoulder dislocations result from axial loading of the adducted and internally rotated shoulder, violent muscle contractions (resulting from seizures or electrocution, a direct posterior force applied to the anterior shoulder.1 Physical findings include decreased anterior prominence of the humeral head, increased palpable posterior prominence of the humeral head below the acromion, increased palpable prominence of the

  7. Posterior cricoarytenoid muscle electrophysiologic changes are predictive of vocal cord paralysis with recurrent laryngeal nerve compressive injury in a canine model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puram, Sidharth V; Chow, Harold; Wu, Che-Wei; Heaton, James T; Kamani, Dipti; Gorti, Gautham; Chiang, Feng Yu; Dionigi, Gianlorenzo; Barczynski, Marcin; Schneider, Rick; Dralle, Henning; Lorenz, Kerstin; Randolph, Gregory W

    2016-12-01

    Injury to the recurrent laryngeal nerve (RLN) is a dreaded complication of endocrine surgery. Intraoperative neural monitoring (IONM) has been increasingly utilized to assess the functional status of the RLN. Although the posterior cricoarytenoid muscle (PCA) is innervated by the RLN as the abductor of the larynx, PCA electromyography (EMG) is infrequently recorded during IONM and PCA activity after RLN compressive injury remains poorly characterized. Single-subject prospective animal study. We employed a canine model to identify postcricoid EMG correlates of postoperative vocal cord paralysis (VCP). Postcricoid electrode recordings were obtained before and after compressive RLN injury associated with VCP. Normative postcricoid recordings revealed mean amplitude of 1288 microvolt (μV) and latency of 8.2 millisecond (ms) with maximum (1 milliamp [mA]) vagal stimulation, and mean amplitude of 1807 μV and latency of 3.5 ms with maximum (1 mA) RLN stimulation. Following injury that was associated with VCP, there was 62.1% decrement in postcricoid EMG amplitude with maximum vagal stimulation and 80% decrement with maximum RLN stimulation. Threshold stimulation of the vagus increased by 23%, and there was a corresponding 42% decrease in amplitude. For RLN stimulation, latency increased by 17.3% following injury, whereas threshold stimulation increased by 61% with 35.5% decrement in EMG amplitude. Thus, if RLN amplitude decreases by ≥ 80%, with absolute amplitude of ≤ 300 μV or less and latency increase of ≥ 10%, RLN injury is likely associated with VCP. Our results predict postoperative VCP based on postcricoid electromyographic IONM and may guide surgical decision making. NA Laryngoscope, 126:2744-2751, 2016. © 2016 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

  8. MEMS 3-DoF gyroscope design, modeling and simulation through equivalent circuit lumped parameter model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mian, Muhammad Umer; Khir, M. H. Md.; Tang, T. B.; Dennis, John Ojur; Riaz, Kashif; Iqbal, Abid; Bazaz, Shafaat A.

    2015-01-01

    Pre-fabrication, behavioural and performance analysis with computer aided design (CAD) tools is a common and fabrication cost effective practice. In light of this we present a simulation methodology for a dual-mass oscillator based 3 Degree of Freedom (3-DoF) MEMS gyroscope. 3-DoF Gyroscope is modeled through lumped parameter models using equivalent circuit elements. These equivalent circuits consist of elementary components which are counterpart of their respective mechanical components, used to design and fabricate 3-DoF MEMS gyroscope. Complete designing of equivalent circuit model, mathematical modeling and simulation are being presented in this paper. Behaviors of the equivalent lumped models derived for the proposed device design are simulated in MEMSPRO T-SPICE software. Simulations are carried out with the design specifications following design rules of the MetalMUMPS fabrication process. Drive mass resonant frequencies simulated by this technique are 1.59 kHz and 2.05 kHz respectively, which are close to the resonant frequencies found by the analytical formulation of the gyroscope. The lumped equivalent circuit modeling technique proved to be a time efficient modeling technique for the analysis of complex MEMS devices like 3-DoF gyroscopes. The technique proves to be an alternative approach to the complex and time consuming couple field analysis Finite Element Analysis (FEA) previously used

  9. MEMS 3-DoF gyroscope design, modeling and simulation through equivalent circuit lumped parameter model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mian, Muhammad Umer, E-mail: umermian@gmail.com; Khir, M. H. Md.; Tang, T. B. [Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS, Tronoh, Perak (Malaysia); Dennis, John Ojur [Department of Fundamental & Applied Sciences, Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS, Tronoh, Perak (Malaysia); Riaz, Kashif; Iqbal, Abid [Faculty of Electronics Engineering, GIK Institute of Engineering Sciences and Technology, Topi, Khyber Pakhtunkhaw (Pakistan); Bazaz, Shafaat A. [Department of Computer Science, Center for Advance Studies in Engineering, Islamabad (Pakistan)

    2015-07-22

    Pre-fabrication, behavioural and performance analysis with computer aided design (CAD) tools is a common and fabrication cost effective practice. In light of this we present a simulation methodology for a dual-mass oscillator based 3 Degree of Freedom (3-DoF) MEMS gyroscope. 3-DoF Gyroscope is modeled through lumped parameter models using equivalent circuit elements. These equivalent circuits consist of elementary components which are counterpart of their respective mechanical components, used to design and fabricate 3-DoF MEMS gyroscope. Complete designing of equivalent circuit model, mathematical modeling and simulation are being presented in this paper. Behaviors of the equivalent lumped models derived for the proposed device design are simulated in MEMSPRO T-SPICE software. Simulations are carried out with the design specifications following design rules of the MetalMUMPS fabrication process. Drive mass resonant frequencies simulated by this technique are 1.59 kHz and 2.05 kHz respectively, which are close to the resonant frequencies found by the analytical formulation of the gyroscope. The lumped equivalent circuit modeling technique proved to be a time efficient modeling technique for the analysis of complex MEMS devices like 3-DoF gyroscopes. The technique proves to be an alternative approach to the complex and time consuming couple field analysis Finite Element Analysis (FEA) previously used.

  10. Application of genetic algorithm in radio ecological models parameter determination

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pantelic, G. [Institute of Occupatioanl Health and Radiological Protection ' Dr Dragomir Karajovic' , Belgrade (Serbia)

    2006-07-01

    The method of genetic algorithms was used to determine the biological half-life of 137 Cs in cow milk after the accident in Chernobyl. Methodologically genetic algorithms are based on the fact that natural processes tend to optimize themselves and therefore this method should be more efficient in providing optimal solutions in the modeling of radio ecological and environmental events. The calculated biological half-life of 137 Cs in milk is (32 {+-} 3) days and transfer coefficient from grass to milk is (0.019 {+-} 0.005). (authors)

  11. Application of genetic algorithm in radio ecological models parameter determination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pantelic, G.

    2006-01-01

    The method of genetic algorithms was used to determine the biological half-life of 137 Cs in cow milk after the accident in Chernobyl. Methodologically genetic algorithms are based on the fact that natural processes tend to optimize themselves and therefore this method should be more efficient in providing optimal solutions in the modeling of radio ecological and environmental events. The calculated biological half-life of 137 Cs in milk is (32 ± 3) days and transfer coefficient from grass to milk is (0.019 ± 0.005). (authors)

  12. Parameter Estimation and Model Validation of Nonlinear Dynamical Networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abarbanel, Henry [Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States); Gill, Philip [Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States)

    2015-03-31

    In the performance period of this work under a DOE contract, the co-PIs, Philip Gill and Henry Abarbanel, developed new methods for statistical data assimilation for problems of DOE interest, including geophysical and biological problems. This included numerical optimization algorithms for variational principles, new parallel processing Monte Carlo routines for performing the path integrals of statistical data assimilation. These results have been summarized in the monograph: “Predicting the Future: Completing Models of Observed Complex Systems” by Henry Abarbanel, published by Spring-Verlag in June 2013. Additional results and details have appeared in the peer reviewed literature.

  13. Progressive posterior cortical dysfunction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fábio Henrique de Gobbi Porto

    Full Text Available Abstract Progressive posterior cortical dysfunction (PPCD is an insidious syndrome characterized by prominent disorders of higher visual processing. It affects both dorsal (occipito-parietal and ventral (occipito-temporal pathways, disturbing visuospatial processing and visual recognition, respectively. We report a case of a 67-year-old woman presenting with progressive impairment of visual functions. Neurologic examination showed agraphia, alexia, hemispatial neglect (left side visual extinction, complete Balint's syndrome and visual agnosia. Magnetic resonance imaging showed circumscribed atrophy involving the bilateral parieto-occipital regions, slightly more predominant to the right . Our aim was to describe a case of this syndrome, to present a video showing the main abnormalities, and to discuss this unusual presentation of dementia. We believe this article can contribute by improving the recognition of PPCD.

  14. Progressive posterior cortical dysfunction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porto, Fábio Henrique de Gobbi; Machado, Gislaine Cristina Lopes; Morillo, Lilian Schafirovits; Brucki, Sonia Maria Dozzi

    2010-01-01

    Progressive posterior cortical dysfunction (PPCD) is an insidious syndrome characterized by prominent disorders of higher visual processing. It affects both dorsal (occipito-parietal) and ventral (occipito-temporal) pathways, disturbing visuospatial processing and visual recognition, respectively. We report a case of a 67-year-old woman presenting with progressive impairment of visual functions. Neurologic examination showed agraphia, alexia, hemispatial neglect (left side visual extinction), complete Balint’s syndrome and visual agnosia. Magnetic resonance imaging showed circumscribed atrophy involving the bilateral parieto-occipital regions, slightly more predominant to the right. Our aim was to describe a case of this syndrome, to present a video showing the main abnormalities, and to discuss this unusual presentation of dementia. We believe this article can contribute by improving the recognition of PPCD. PMID:29213665

  15. Model description and kinetic parameter analysis of MTBE biodegradation in a packed bed reactor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Waul, Christopher Kevin; Arvin, Erik; Schmidt, Jens Ejbye

    2008-01-01

    A dynamic modeling approach was used to estimate in-situ model parameters, which describe the degradation of methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) in a laboratory packed bed reactor. The measured dynamic response of MTBE pulses injected at the reactor's inlet was analyzed by least squares and parameter...

  16. Statistical properties of compartmental model parameters extracted from dynamic positron emission tomography experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazoyer, B.M.; Huesman, R.H.; Budinger, T.F.; Knittel, B.L.

    1986-01-01

    Over the past years a major focus of research in physiologic studies employing tracers has been the computer implementation of mathematical methods of kinetic modeling for extracting the desired physiological parameters from tomographically derived data. A study is reported of factors that affect the statistical properties of compartmental model parameters extracted from dynamic positron emission tomography (PET) experiments

  17. Quantification of remodeling parameter sensitivity - assessed by a computer simulation model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, J.S.; Mosekilde, Li.; Mosekilde, Erik

    1996-01-01

    We have used a computer simulation model to evaluate the effect of several bone remodeling parameters on vertebral cancellus bone. The menopause was chosen as the base case scenario, and the sensitivity of the model to the following parameters was investigated: activation frequency, formation bal....... However, the formation balance was responsible for the greater part of total mass loss....

  18. Recommendations concerning models and parameters best suited to breeder reactor environmental radiological assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, C.W.; Baes, C.F. III; Dunning, D.E. Jr.

    1980-05-01

    Recommendations are presented concerning the models and parameters best suited for assessing the impact of radionuclide releases to the environment by breeder reactor facilities. These recommendations are based on the model and parameter evaluations performed during this project to date. Seven different areas are covered in separate sections

  19. Exploring Parameter Tuning for Analysis and Optimization of a Computational Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mollee, J.S.; Fernandes de Mello Araujo, E.; Klein, M.C.A.

    2017-01-01

    Computational models of human processes are used for many different purposes and in many different types of applications. A common challenge in using such models is to find suitable parameter values. In many cases, the ideal parameter values are those that yield the most realistic simulation

  20. Sensitivity of Tumor Motion Simulation Accuracy to Lung Biomechanical Modeling Approaches and Parameters

    OpenAIRE

    Tehrani, Joubin Nasehi; Yang, Yin; Werner, Rene; Lu, Wei; Low, Daniel; Guo, Xiaohu; Wang, Jing

    2015-01-01

    Finite element analysis (FEA)-based biomechanical modeling can be used to predict lung respiratory motion. In this technique, elastic models and biomechanical parameters are two important factors that determine modeling accuracy. We systematically evaluated the effects of lung and lung tumor biomechanical modeling approaches and related parameters to improve the accuracy of motion simulation of lung tumor center of mass (TCM) displacements. Experiments were conducted with four-dimensional com...

  1. Inverse modeling approach for evaluation of kinetic parameters of a biofilm reactor using tabu search.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, B Shiva; Venkateswarlu, Ch

    2014-08-01

    The complex nature of biological reactions in biofilm reactors often poses difficulties in analyzing such reactors experimentally. Mathematical models could be very useful for their design and analysis. However, application of biofilm reactor models to practical problems proves somewhat ineffective due to the lack of knowledge of accurate kinetic models and uncertainty in model parameters. In this work, we propose an inverse modeling approach based on tabu search (TS) to estimate the parameters of kinetic and film thickness models. TS is used to estimate these parameters as a consequence of the validation of the mathematical models of the process with the aid of measured data obtained from an experimental fixed-bed anaerobic biofilm reactor involving the treatment of pharmaceutical industry wastewater. The results evaluated for different modeling configurations of varying degrees of complexity illustrate the effectiveness of TS for accurate estimation of kinetic and film thickness model parameters of the biofilm process. The results show that the two-dimensional mathematical model with Edward kinetics (with its optimum parameters as mu(max)rho(s)/Y = 24.57, Ks = 1.352 and Ki = 102.36) and three-parameter film thickness expression (with its estimated parameters as a = 0.289 x 10(-5), b = 1.55 x 10(-4) and c = 15.2 x 10(-6)) better describes the biofilm reactor treating the industry wastewater.

  2. Exploring the parameter space of warm-inflation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastero-Gil, Mar; Berera, Arjun; Kronberg, Nico

    2015-12-01

    Warm inflation includes inflaton interactions with other fields throughout the inflationary epoch instead of confining such interactions to a distinct reheating era. Previous investigations have shown that, when certain constraints on the dynamics of these interactions and the resultant radiation bath are satisfied, a low-momentum-dominated dissipation coefficient propto T3/mχ2 can sustain an era of inflation compatible with CMB observations. In this work, we extend these analyses by including the pole-dominated dissipation term propto √mχ T exp(-mχ/T). We find that, with this enhanced dissipation, certain models, notably the quadratic hilltop potential, perform significantly better. Specifically, we can achieve 50 e-folds of inflation and a spectral index compatible with Planck data while requiring fewer mediator field (Script O(104) for the quadratic hilltop potential) and smaller coupling constants, opening up interesting model-building possibilities. We also highlight the significance of the specific parametric dependence of the dissipative coefficient which could prove useful in even greater reduction in field content.

  3. Parameter study on dynamic behavior of ITER tokamak scaled model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakahira, Masataka; Takeda, Nobukazu

    2004-12-01

    This report summarizes that the study on dynamic behavior of ITER tokamak scaled model according to the parametric analysis of base plate thickness, in order to find a reasonable solution to give the sufficient rigidity without affecting the dynamic behavior. For this purpose, modal analyses were performed changing the base plate thickness from the present design of 55 mm to 100 mm, 150 mm and 190 mm. Using these results, the modification plan of the plate thickness was studied. It was found that the thickness of 150 mm gives well fitting of 1st natural frequency about 90% of ideal rigid case. Thus, the modification study was performed to find out the adequate plate thickness. Considering the material availability, transportation and weldability, it was found that the 300mm thickness would be a limitation. The analysis result of 300mm thickness case showed 97% fitting of 1st natural frequency to the ideal rigid case. It was however found that the bolt length was too long and it gave additional twisting mode. As a result, it was concluded that the base plate thickness of 150mm or 190mm gives sufficient rigidity for the dynamic behavior of the scaled model. (author)

  4. Estimating Convection Parameters in the GFDL CM2.1 Model Using Ensemble Data Assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shan; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Zhengyu; Lu, Lv; Zhu, Jiang; Zhang, Xuefeng; Wu, Xinrong; Zhao, Ming; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Zhang, Rong-Hua; Lin, Xiaopei

    2018-04-01

    Parametric uncertainty in convection parameterization is one major source of model errors that cause model climate drift. Convection parameter tuning has been widely studied in atmospheric models to help mitigate the problem. However, in a fully coupled general circulation model (CGCM), convection parameters which impact the ocean as well as the climate simulation may have different optimal values. This study explores the possibility of estimating convection parameters with an ensemble coupled data assimilation method in a CGCM. Impacts of the convection parameter estimation on climate analysis and forecast are analyzed. In a twin experiment framework, five convection parameters in the GFDL coupled model CM2.1 are estimated individually and simultaneously under both perfect and imperfect model regimes. Results show that the ensemble data assimilation method can help reduce the bias in convection parameters. With estimated convection parameters, the analyses and forecasts for both the atmosphere and the ocean are generally improved. It is also found that information in low latitudes is relatively more important for estimating convection parameters. This study further suggests that when important parameters in appropriate physical parameterizations are identified, incorporating their estimation into traditional ensemble data assimilation procedure could improve the final analysis and climate prediction.

  5. Computation of posterior distribution in Bayesian analysis – application in an intermittently used reliability system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. S.S. Yadavalli

    2002-09-01

    Full Text Available Bayesian estimation is presented for the stationary rate of disappointments, D∞, for two models (with different specifications of intermittently used systems. The random variables in the system are considered to be independently exponentially distributed. Jeffreys’ prior is assumed for the unknown parameters in the system. Inference about D∞ is being restrained in both models by the complex and non-linear definition of D∞. Monte Carlo simulation is used to derive the posterior distribution of D∞ and subsequently the highest posterior density (HPD intervals. A numerical example where Bayes estimates and the HPD intervals are determined illustrates these results. This illustration is extended to determine the frequentistical properties of this Bayes procedure, by calculating covering proportions for each of these HPD intervals, assuming fixed values for the parameters.

  6. Iterative importance sampling algorithms for parameter estimation

    OpenAIRE

    Morzfeld, Matthias; Day, Marcus S.; Grout, Ray W.; Pau, George Shu Heng; Finsterle, Stefan A.; Bell, John B.

    2016-01-01

    In parameter estimation problems one computes a posterior distribution over uncertain parameters defined jointly by a prior distribution, a model, and noisy data. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is often used for the numerical solution of such problems. An alternative to MCMC is importance sampling, which can exhibit near perfect scaling with the number of cores on high performance computing systems because samples are drawn independently. However, finding a suitable proposal distribution is ...

  7. Endoscopic Management of Posterior Epistaxis

    OpenAIRE

    Paul, J.; Kanotra, Sohit Paul; Kanotra, Sonika

    2011-01-01

    The traditional method of management of posterior epistaxis has been with anteroposterior nasal packing. Apart from the high failure rate of 26–50% reported in various series, nasal packing is associated with marked discomfort and several complications. In order to avoid nasal packing, we started doing endoscopic cauterization in cases of posterior epistaxis. A total of 23 patients with posterior epistaxis were subjected to nasal endoscopy with the intent to stop bleeding by cauterization of ...

  8. RIDE vs. CLASP Comparison and Evaluation: Models and Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-04-01

    the model is declared "No Decision," indicating that neither QLRM nor LLRM provides a satisfactory fit. If p-value ( i 2j ) > p-value ( flj ), then our...evaluated at A = D = loo tD (7) UA/D(70,40) = 37.35 (8) UA/D(70,100) = 22.93 (9) OUA/D = 0 when evaluated at A = 70, D = 65.7 aD Note the number of...M U) U) C)U)f-~H W 0 U) co CQ CU)QC) W W 0 O40U) El)U tq D O U) U) E U) Z 04 X L X 4j c)c: o n n , f)cj" D ,m u)o mm o:zz .o tD o U) Uti)U) ’-4 r-4

  9. Assessing first-order emulator inference for physical parameters in nonlinear mechanistic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hooten, Mevin B.; Leeds, William B.; Fiechter, Jerome; Wikle, Christopher K.

    2011-01-01

    We present an approach for estimating physical parameters in nonlinear models that relies on an approximation to the mechanistic model itself for computational efficiency. The proposed methodology is validated and applied in two different modeling scenarios: (a) Simulation and (b) lower trophic level ocean ecosystem model. The approach we develop relies on the ability to predict right singular vectors (resulting from a decomposition of computer model experimental output) based on the computer model input and an experimental set of parameters. Critically, we model the right singular vectors in terms of the model parameters via a nonlinear statistical model. Specifically, we focus our attention on first-order models of these right singular vectors rather than the second-order (covariance) structure.

  10. The application of model with lumped parameters for transient condition analyses of NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stankovic, B.; Stevanovic, V.

    1985-01-01

    The transient behaviour of NPP Krsko during the accident of pressurizer spray valve stuck open has been simulated y lumped parameters model of the PWR coolant system components, developed at the faculty of Mechanical Engineering, University of Belgrade. The elementary volumes which are characterised by the process and state parameters, and by junctions which are characterised by the geometrical and flow parameters are basic structure of physical model. The process parameters obtained by the model RESI, show qualitative agreement with the measured valves, in a degree in which the actions of reactor safety engineered system and emergency core cooling system are adequately modelled; in spite of the elementary physical model structure and only the modelling of thermal process in reactor core and equilibrium conditions of pressurizer and steam generator. The pressurizer pressure and liquid level predicted by the non-equilibrium pressurizer model SOP show good agreement until the HIPS (high pressure pumps) is activated. (author)

  11. A Consistent Methodology Based Parameter Estimation for a Lactic Acid Bacteria Fermentation Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spann, Robert; Roca, Christophe; Kold, David

    2017-01-01

    Lactic acid bacteria are used in many industrial applications, e.g. as starter cultures in the dairy industry or as probiotics, and research on their cell production is highly required. A first principles kinetic model was developed to describe and understand the biological, physical, and chemical...... mechanisms in a lactic acid bacteria fermentation. We present here a consistent approach for a methodology based parameter estimation for a lactic acid fermentation. In the beginning, just an initial knowledge based guess of parameters was available and an initial parameter estimation of the complete set...... of parameters was performed in order to get a good model fit to the data. However, not all parameters are identifiable with the given data set and model structure. Sensitivity, identifiability, and uncertainty analysis were completed and a relevant identifiable subset of parameters was determined for a new...

  12. Determination of Parameters to Model Seafarers’ Supply in Latvia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberts Gailitis

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The Automatic Identification System (AIS is an important maritime safety device, which is populous in inland rivers. Compared with that in open sea, the Package Error Rate (PER of AIS in inland river has increased sharply due to its complex environment. With the help of hardware in loop simulation, it is possible to make statistical calculation on the PER under a given field strength and describe the data by quadratic rational fraction. Meanwhile, in the three dimensional software environments, the signal field strength is able to be calculated by the ray tracking method, which exhausts all the possible propagation paths, including direct way, reflection, diffractions, and the other medium attenuation matters. Beyond that, in the model, the propagation geography information in inland rivers is required to be simplified in some way, or the computation of the ray tracking is too hard to get. The paper set the Changjiang Wuhan channel as the field testing region, and all the deviations are less than 5% in sunny weather, which proves the method accurate and effective.

  13. The Effects of Uncertainty in Speed-Flow Curve Parameters on a Large-Scale Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzo, Stefano; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2014-01-01

    -delay functions express travel time as a function of traffic flows and the theoretical capacity of the modeled facility. The U.S. Bureau of Public Roads (BPR) formula is one of the most extensively applied volume delay functions in practice. This study investigated uncertainty in the BPR parameters. Initially......-stage Danish national transport model. The results clearly highlight the importance to modeling purposes of taking into account BPR formula parameter uncertainty, expressed as a distribution of values rather than assumed point values. Indeed, the model output demonstrates a noticeable sensitivity to parameter...

  14. Nonlinear analysis of AS4/PEEK thermoplastic composite laminate using a one parameter plasticity model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, C. T.; Yoon, K. J.

    1990-01-01

    A one-parameter plasticity model was shown to adequately describe the orthotropic plastic deformation of AS4/PEEK (APC-2) unidirectional thermoplastic composite. This model was verified further for unidirectional and laminated composite panels with and without a hole. The nonlinear stress-strain relations were measured and compared with those predicted by the finite element analysis using the one-parameter elastic-plastic constitutive model. The results show that the one-parameter orthotropic plasticity model is suitable for the analysis of elastic-plastic deformation of AS4/PEEK composite laminates.

  15. Tests of Parameters Instability: Theoretical Study and Empirical Applications on Two Types of Models (ARMA Model and Market Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sahbi FARHANI

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers tests of parameters instability and structural change with known, unknown or multiple breakpoints. The results apply to a wide class of parametric models that are suitable for estimation by strong rules for detecting the number of breaks in a time series. For that, we use Chow, CUSUM, CUSUM of squares, Wald, likelihood ratio and Lagrange multiplier tests. Each test implicitly uses an estimate of a change point. We conclude with an empirical analysis on two different models (ARMA model and simple linear regression model.

  16. Adaptive Parameter Estimation of Person Recognition Model in a Stochastic Human Tracking Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakanishi, W.; Fuse, T.; Ishikawa, T.

    2015-05-01

    This paper aims at an estimation of parameters of person recognition models using a sequential Bayesian filtering method. In many human tracking method, any parameters of models used for recognize the same person in successive frames are usually set in advance of human tracking process. In real situation these parameters may change according to situation of observation and difficulty level of human position prediction. Thus in this paper we formulate an adaptive parameter estimation using general state space model. Firstly we explain the way to formulate human tracking in general state space model with their components. Then referring to previous researches, we use Bhattacharyya coefficient to formulate observation model of general state space model, which is corresponding to person recognition model. The observation model in this paper is a function of Bhattacharyya coefficient with one unknown parameter. At last we sequentially estimate this parameter in real dataset with some settings. Results showed that sequential parameter estimation was succeeded and were consistent with observation situations such as occlusions.

  17. Repetitive Identification of Structural Systems Using a Nonlinear Model Parameter Refinement Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeng-Wen Lin

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a statistical confidence interval based nonlinear model parameter refinement approach for the health monitoring of structural systems subjected to seismic excitations. The developed model refinement approach uses the 95% confidence interval of the estimated structural parameters to determine their statistical significance in a least-squares regression setting. When the parameters' confidence interval covers the zero value, it is statistically sustainable to truncate such parameters. The remaining parameters will repetitively undergo such parameter sifting process for model refinement until all the parameters' statistical significance cannot be further improved. This newly developed model refinement approach is implemented for the series models of multivariable polynomial expansions: the linear, the Taylor series, and the power series model, leading to a more accurate identification as well as a more controllable design for system vibration control. Because the statistical regression based model refinement approach is intrinsically used to process a “batch” of data and obtain an ensemble average estimation such as the structural stiffness, the Kalman filter and one of its extended versions is introduced to the refined power series model for structural health monitoring.

  18. Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty of the forest carbon flux model FORUG : a Monte Carlo analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verbeeck, H.; Samson, R.; Lemeur, R. [Ghent Univ., Ghent (Belgium). Laboratory of Plant Ecology; Verdonck, F. [Ghent Univ., Ghent (Belgium). Dept. of Applied Mathematics, Biometrics and Process Control

    2006-06-15

    The FORUG model is a multi-layer process-based model that simulates carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) and water exchange between forest stands and the atmosphere. The main model outputs are net ecosystem exchange (NEE), total ecosystem respiration (TER), gross primary production (GPP) and evapotranspiration. This study used a sensitivity analysis to identify the parameters contributing to NEE uncertainty in the FORUG model. The aim was to determine if it is necessary to estimate the uncertainty of all parameters of a model to determine overall output uncertainty. Data used in the study were the meteorological and flux data of beech trees in Hesse. The Monte Carlo method was used to rank sensitivity and uncertainty parameters in combination with a multiple linear regression. Simulations were run in which parameters were assigned probability distributions and the effect of variance in the parameters on the output distribution was assessed. The uncertainty of the output for NEE was estimated. Based on the arbitrary uncertainty of 10 key parameters, a standard deviation of 0.88 Mg C per year per NEE was found, which was equal to 24 per cent of the mean value of NEE. The sensitivity analysis showed that the overall output uncertainty of the FORUG model could be determined by accounting for only a few key parameters, which were identified as corresponding to critical parameters in the literature. It was concluded that the 10 most important parameters determined more than 90 per cent of the output uncertainty. High ranking parameters included soil respiration; photosynthesis; and crown architecture. It was concluded that the Monte Carlo technique is a useful tool for ranking the uncertainty of parameters of process-based forest flux models. 48 refs., 2 tabs., 2 figs.

  19. Parameter uncertainty in CGE Modeling of the environmental impacts of economic policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abler, D.G.; Shortle, J.S. [Agricultural Economics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA (United States); Rodriguez, A.G. [University of Costa Rica, San Jose (Costa Rica)

    1999-07-01

    This study explores the role of parameter uncertainty in Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modeling of the environmental impacts of macroeconomic and sectoral policies, using Costa Rica as a case for study. A CGE model is constructed which includes eight environmental indicators covering deforestation, pesticides, overfishing, hazardous wastes, inorganic wastes, organic wastes, greenhouse gases, and air pollution. The parameters are treated as random variables drawn from prespecified distributions. Evaluation of each policy option consists of a Monte Carlo experiment. The impacts of the policy options on the environmental indicators are relatively robust to different parameter values, in spite of the wide range of parameter values employed. 33 refs.

  20. Parameter uncertainty in CGE Modeling of the environmental impacts of economic policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abler, D.G.; Shortle, J.S.; Rodriguez, A.G.

    1999-01-01

    This study explores the role of parameter uncertainty in Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modeling of the environmental impacts of macroeconomic and sectoral policies, using Costa Rica as a case for study. A CGE model is constructed which includes eight environmental indicators covering deforestation, pesticides, overfishing, hazardous wastes, inorganic wastes, organic wastes, greenhouse gases, and air pollution. The parameters are treated as random variables drawn from prespecified distributions. Evaluation of each policy option consists of a Monte Carlo experiment. The impacts of the policy options on the environmental indicators are relatively robust to different parameter values, in spite of the wide range of parameter values employed. 33 refs

  1. Optimization of a centrifugal compressor impeller using CFD: the choice of simulation model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neverov, V. V.; Kozhukhov, Y. V.; Yablokov, A. M.; Lebedev, A. A.

    2017-08-01

    Nowadays the optimization using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) plays an important role in the design process of turbomachines. However, for the successful and productive optimization it is necessary to define a simulation model correctly and rationally. The article deals with the choice of a grid and computational domain parameters for optimization of centrifugal compressor impellers using computational fluid dynamics. Searching and applying optimal parameters of the grid model, the computational domain and solver settings allows engineers to carry out a high-accuracy modelling and to use computational capability effectively. The presented research was conducted using Numeca Fine/Turbo package with Spalart-Allmaras and Shear Stress Transport turbulence models. Two radial impellers was investigated: the high-pressure at ψT=0.71 and the low-pressure at ψT=0.43. The following parameters of the computational model were considered: the location of inlet and outlet boundaries, type of mesh topology, size of mesh and mesh parameter y+. Results of the investigation demonstrate that the choice of optimal parameters leads to the significant reduction of the computational time. Optimal parameters in comparison with non-optimal but visually similar parameters can reduce the calculation time up to 4 times. Besides, it is established that some parameters have a major impact on the result of modelling.

  2. Late-onset Alzheimer disease genetic variants in posterior cortical atrophy and posterior AD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrasquillo, Minerva M; Khan, Qurat ul Ain; Murray, Melissa E; Krishnan, Siddharth; Aakre, Jeremiah; Pankratz, V Shane; Nguyen, Thuy; Ma, Li; Bisceglio, Gina; Petersen, Ronald C; Younkin, Steven G; Dickson, Dennis W; Boeve, Bradley F; Graff-Radford, Neill R; Ertekin-Taner, Nilüfer

    2014-04-22

    To investigate association of genetic risk factors for late-onset Alzheimer disease (LOAD) with risk of posterior cortical atrophy (PCA), a syndrome of visual impairment with predominant Alzheimer disease (AD) pathology in posterior cortical regions, and with risk of "posterior AD" neuropathology. We assessed 81 participants with PCA diagnosed clinically and 54 with neuropathologic diagnosis of posterior AD vs 2,523 controls for association with 11 significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from published LOAD risk genome-wide association studies. There was highly significant association with APOE ε4 and increased risk of PCA (p = 0.0003, odds ratio [OR] = 3.17) and posterior AD (p = 1.11 × 10(-17), OR = 6.43). No other locus was significant after corrections for multiple testing, although rs11136000 near CLU (p = 0.019, OR = 0.60) and rs744373 near BIN1 (p = 0.025, OR = 1. 63) associated nominally significantly with posterior AD, and rs3851179 at the PICALM locus had significant association with PCA (p = 0.0003, OR = 2.84). ABCA7 locus SNP rs3764650, which was also tested under the recessive model because of Hardy-Weinberg disequilibrium, also had nominally significant association with PCA risk. The direction of association at APOE, CLU, and BIN1 loci was the same for participants with PCA and posterior AD. The effects for all SNPs, except rs3851179, were consistent with those for LOAD risk. We identified a significant effect for APOE and nominate CLU, BIN1, and ABCA7 as additional risk loci for PCA and posterior AD. Our findings suggest that at least some of the genetic risk factors for LOAD are shared with these atypical conditions and provide effect-size estimates for their future genetic studies.

  3. Improving weather predictability by including land-surface model parameter uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orth, Rene; Dutra, Emanuel; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-04-01

    The land surface forms an important component of Earth system models and interacts nonlinearly with other parts such as ocean and atmosphere. To capture the complex and heterogenous hydrology of the land surface, land surface models include a large number of parameters impacting the coupling to other components of the Earth system model. Focusing on ECMWF's land-surface model HTESSEL we present in this study a comprehensive parameter sensitivity evaluation using multiple observational datasets in Europe. We select 6 poorly constrained effective parameters (surface runoff effective depth, skin conductivity, minimum stomatal resistance, maximum interception, soil moisture stress function shape, total soil depth) and explore their sensitivity to model outputs such as soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff using uncoupled simulations and coupled seasonal forecasts. Additionally we investigate the possibility to construct ensembles from the multiple land surface parameters. In the uncoupled runs we find that minimum stomatal resistance and total soil depth have the most influence on model performance. Forecast skill scores are moreover sensitive to the same parameters as HTESSEL performance in the uncoupled analysis. We demonstrate the robustness of our findings by comparing multiple best performing parameter sets and multiple randomly chosen parameter sets. We find better temperature and precipitation forecast skill with the best-performing parameter perturbations demonstrating representativeness of model performance across uncoupled (and hence less computationally demanding) and coupled settings. Finally, we construct ensemble forecasts from ensemble members derived with different best-performing parameterizations of HTESSEL. This incorporation of parameter uncertainty in the ensemble generation yields an increase in forecast skill, even beyond the skill of the default system. Orth, R., E. Dutra, and F. Pappenberger, 2016: Improving weather predictability by

  4. A New Five-Parameter Fréchet Model for Extreme Values

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Ahsan ul Haq

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available A new five parameter Fréchet model for Extreme Values was proposed and studied. Various mathematical properties including moments, quantiles, and moment generating function were derived. Incomplete moments and probability weighted moments were also obtained. The maximum likelihood method was used to estimate the model parameters. The flexibility of the derived model was accessed using two real data set applications.

  5. Selecting Sensitive Parameter Subsets in Dynamical Models With Application to Biomechanical System Identification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramadan, Ahmed; Boss, Connor; Choi, Jongeun; Peter Reeves, N; Cholewicki, Jacek; Popovich, John M; Radcliffe, Clark J

    2018-07-01

    Estimating many parameters of biomechanical systems with limited data may achieve good fit but may also increase 95% confidence intervals in parameter estimates. This results in poor identifiability in the estimation problem. Therefore, we propose a novel method to select sensitive biomechanical model parameters that should be estimated, while fixing the remaining parameters to values obtained from preliminary estimation. Our method relies on identifying the parameters to which the measurement output is most sensitive. The proposed method is based on the Fisher information matrix (FIM). It was compared against the nonlinear least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method to guide modelers on the pros and cons of our FIM method. We present an application identifying a biomechanical parametric model of a head position-tracking task for ten human subjects. Using measured data, our method (1) reduced model complexity by only requiring five out of twelve parameters to be estimated, (2) significantly reduced parameter 95% confidence intervals by up to 89% of the original confidence interval, (3) maintained goodness of fit measured by variance accounted for (VAF) at 82%, (4) reduced computation time, where our FIM method was 164 times faster than the LASSO method, and (5) selected similar sensitive parameters to the LASSO method, where three out of five selected sensitive parameters were shared by FIM and LASSO methods.

  6. Impact of the calibration period on the conceptual rainfall-runoff model parameter estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todorovic, Andrijana; Plavsic, Jasna

    2015-04-01

    A conceptual rainfall-runoff model is defined by its structure and parameters, which are commonly inferred through model calibration. Parameter estimates depend on objective function(s), optimisation method, and calibration period. Model calibration over different periods may result in dissimilar parameter estimates, while model efficiency decreases outside calibration period. Problem of model (parameter) transferability, which conditions reliability of hydrologic simulations, has been investigated for decades. In this paper, dependence of the parameter estimates and model performance on calibration period is analysed. The main question that is addressed is: are there any changes in optimised parameters and model efficiency that can be linked to the changes in hydrologic or meteorological variables (flow, precipitation and temperature)? Conceptual, semi-distributed HBV-light model is calibrated over five-year periods shifted by a year (sliding time windows). Length of the calibration periods is selected to enable identification of all parameters. One water year of model warm-up precedes every simulation, which starts with the beginning of a water year. The model is calibrated using the built-in GAP optimisation algorithm. The objective function used for calibration is composed of Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient for flows and logarithms of flows, and volumetric error, all of which participate in the composite objective function with approximately equal weights. Same prior parameter ranges are used in all simulations. The model is calibrated against flows observed at the Slovac stream gauge on the Kolubara River in Serbia (records from 1954 to 2013). There are no trends in precipitation nor in flows, however, there is a statistically significant increasing trend in temperatures at this catchment. Parameter variability across the calibration periods is quantified in terms of standard deviations of normalised parameters, enabling detection of the most variable parameters

  7. Inverse modeling for the determination of hydrogeological parameters of a two-phase system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finsterle, S.

    1993-02-01

    Investigations related to the disposal of radioactive wastes in Switzerland consider formations containing natural gas as potential rocks for a repository. Moreover, gas generation in the repository itself may lead to an unsaturated zone of significant extent and impact on the system's performance. The site characterization procedure requires the estimation of hydraulic properties being used as input parameters for a two-phase two-component numerical simulator. In this study, estimates of gas-related formation parameters are obtained by inverse modeling. Based on discrete observations of the system's state, model parameters can be estimated within the framework of a given conceptual model by means of optimization techniques. This study presents the theoretical background that related field data to the model parameters. A parameter estimation procedure is proposed and implemented in a computer code for automatic model calibration. This tool allows identification of key parameters affecting flow of water and gas in porous media. The inverse modeling approach is verified using data from a synthetic laboratory experiment. In addition, the Gas test performed at the Grimsel Test Site is analyzed in order to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed procedure when used with data from a real geologic environment. Estimation of hydrogeologic parameters by automatic model calibration improves the understanding of the two-phase flow processes and therefore increases the reliability of the subsequent simulation runs. (author) figs., tabs., refs

  8. Inverse modeling for the determination of hydrogeological parameters of a two-phase system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finsterle, S.

    1993-01-01

    Investigations related to the disposal of radioactive wastes in Switzerland are dealing with formations containing natural gas as potential host rock for a repository. Moreover, gas generation in the repository itself may lead to an unsaturated zone of significant extent and impact on the system's performance. The site characterization procedure requires the estimation of hydraulic properties being used as input parameters for a two-phase two-component numerical simulator. In this study, estimates of gas related formation parameters are obtained by inverse modeling. Based on discrete observations of the system's state, model parameters can be estimated within the framework of a given conceptual model by means of optimization techniques. This study presents the theoretical background that relates field data to the model parameters. A parameter estimation procedure is proposed and implemented in a computer code for automatic model calibration. This tool allows to identify key parameters affecting flow of water and gas in porous media. The inverse modeling approach is verified using data from a synthetic laboratory experiment. In addition, the Gastest performed at the Grimsel Test Site is analyzed in order to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed procedure when used with data from a real geologic environment. Estimation of hydrogeologic parameters by automatic model calibration improves the understanding of the two-phase flow processes and therefore increases the reliability of the subsequent simulation runs. (author) figs., tabs., 100 refs

  9. A note on modeling of tumor regression for estimation of radiobiological parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhong, Hualiang; Chetty, Indrin

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Accurate calculation of radiobiological parameters is crucial to predicting radiation treatment response. Modeling differences may have a significant impact on derived parameters. In this study, the authors have integrated two existing models with kinetic differential equations to formulate a new tumor regression model for estimation of radiobiological parameters for individual patients. Methods: A system of differential equations that characterizes the birth-and-death process of tumor cells in radiation treatment was analytically solved. The solution of this system was used to construct an iterative model (Z-model). The model consists of three parameters: tumor doubling time T d , half-life of dead cells T r , and cell survival fraction SF D under dose D. The Jacobian determinant of this model was proposed as a constraint to optimize the three parameters for six head and neck cancer patients. The derived parameters were compared with those generated from the two existing models: Chvetsov's model (C-model) and Lim's model (L-model). The C-model and L-model were optimized with the parameter T d fixed. Results: With the Jacobian-constrained Z-model, the mean of the optimized cell survival fractions is 0.43 ± 0.08, and the half-life of dead cells averaged over the six patients is 17.5 ± 3.2 days. The parameters T r and SF D optimized with the Z-model differ by 1.2% and 20.3% from those optimized with the T d -fixed C-model, and by 32.1% and 112.3% from those optimized with the T d -fixed L-model, respectively. Conclusions: The Z-model was analytically constructed from the differential equations of cell populations that describe changes in the number of different tumor cells during the course of radiation treatment. The Jacobian constraints were proposed to optimize the three radiobiological parameters. The generated model and its optimization method may help develop high-quality treatment regimens for individual patients

  10. Application of isotopic information for estimating parameters in Philip infiltration model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tao Wang

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Minimizing parameter uncertainty is crucial in the application of hydrologic models. Isotopic information in various hydrologic components of the water cycle can expand our knowledge of the dynamics of water flow in the system, provide additional information for parameter estimation, and improve parameter identifiability. This study combined the Philip infiltration model with an isotopic mixing model using an isotopic mass balance approach for estimating parameters in the Philip infiltration model. Two approaches to parameter estimation were compared: (a using isotopic information to determine the soil water transmission and then hydrologic information to estimate the soil sorptivity, and (b using hydrologic information to determine the soil water transmission and the soil sorptivity. Results of parameter estimation were verified through a rainfall infiltration experiment in a laboratory under rainfall with constant isotopic compositions and uniform initial soil water content conditions. Experimental results showed that approach (a, using isotopic and hydrologic information, estimated the soil water transmission in the Philip infiltration model in a manner that matched measured values well. The results of parameter estimation of approach (a were better than those of approach (b. It was also found that the analytical precision of hydrogen and oxygen stable isotopes had a significant effect on parameter estimation using isotopic information.

  11. PARAMETER ESTIMATION AND MODEL SELECTION FOR INDOOR ENVIRONMENTS BASED ON SPARSE OBSERVATIONS

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    Y. Dehbi

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a novel method for the parameter estimation and model selection for the reconstruction of indoor environments based on sparse observations. While most approaches for the reconstruction of indoor models rely on dense observations, we predict scenes of the interior with high accuracy in the absence of indoor measurements. We use a model-based top-down approach and incorporate strong but profound prior knowledge. The latter includes probability density functions for model parameters and sparse observations such as room areas and the building footprint. The floorplan model is characterized by linear and bi-linear relations with discrete and continuous parameters. We focus on the stochastic estimation of model parameters based on a topological model derived by combinatorial reasoning in a first step. A Gauss-Markov model is applied for estimation and simulation of the model parameters. Symmetries are represented and exploited during the estimation process. Background knowledge as well as observations are incorporated in a maximum likelihood estimation and model selection is performed with AIC/BIC. The likelihood is also used for the detection and correction of potential errors in the topological model. Estimation results are presented and discussed.

  12. Parameter Estimation and Model Selection for Indoor Environments Based on Sparse Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dehbi, Y.; Loch-Dehbi, S.; Plümer, L.

    2017-09-01

    This paper presents a novel method for the parameter estimation and model selection for the reconstruction of indoor environments based on sparse observations. While most approaches for the reconstruction of indoor models rely on dense observations, we predict scenes of the interior with high accuracy in the absence of indoor measurements. We use a model-based top-down approach and incorporate strong but profound prior knowledge. The latter includes probability density functions for model parameters and sparse observations such as room areas and the building footprint. The floorplan model is characterized by linear and bi-linear relations with discrete and continuous parameters. We focus on the stochastic estimation of model parameters based on a topological model derived by combinatorial reasoning in a first step. A Gauss-Markov model is applied for estimation and simulation of the model parameters. Symmetries are represented and exploited during the estimation process. Background knowledge as well as observations are incorporated in a maximum likelihood estimation and model selection is performed with AIC/BIC. The likelihood is also used for the detection and correction of potential errors in the topological model. Estimation results are presented and discussed.

  13. On the validity of evolutionary models with site-specific parameters.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konrad Scheffler

    Full Text Available Evolutionary models that make use of site-specific parameters have recently been criticized on the grounds that parameter estimates obtained under such models can be unreliable and lack theoretical guarantees of convergence. We present a simulation study providing empirical evidence that a simple version of the models in question does exhibit sensible convergence behavior and that additional taxa, despite not being independent of each other, lead to improved parameter estimates. Although it would be desirable to have theoretical guarantees of this, we argue that such guarantees would not be sufficient to justify the use of these models in practice. Instead, we emphasize the importance of taking the variance of parameter estimates into account rather than blindly trusting point estimates - this is standardly done by using the models to construct statistical hypothesis tests, which are then validated empirically via simulation studies.

  14. Comparison of Tibiofemoral Contact Mechanics After Various Transtibial and All-Inside Fixation Techniques for Medial Meniscus Posterior Root Radial Tears in a Porcine Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Kyu Sung; Choi, Choong Hyeok; Bae, Tae Soo; Ha, Jeong Ku; Jun, Dal Jae; Wang, Joon Ho; Kim, Jin Goo

    2018-04-01

    To compare tibiofemoral contact mechanics after fixation for medial meniscus posterior root radial tears (MMPRTs). Seven fresh knees from mature pigs were used. Each knee was tested under 5 conditions: normal knee, MMPRT, pullout fixation with simple sutures, fixation with modified Mason-Allen sutures, and all-inside fixation using Fastfix 360. The peak contact pressure and contact surface area were evaluated using a capacitive sensor positioned between the meniscus and tibial plateau, under a 1,000-N compression force, at different flexion angles (0°, 30°, 60°, and 90°). The peak contact pressure was significantly higher in MMPRTs than in normal knees (P = .018). Although the peak contact pressure decreased significantly after fixation at all flexion angles (P = .031), it never recovered to the values noted in the normal meniscus. No difference was observed among fixation groups (P = .054). The contact surface area was significantly lower in MMPRTs than in the normal meniscus (P = .018) and increased significantly after fixation at all flexion angles (P = .018) but did not recover to within normal limits. For all flexion angles except 60°, the contact surface area was significantly higher for fixation with Mason-Allen sutures than for fixation with simple sutures or all-inside fixation (P = .027). At 90° of flexion, the contact surface area was significantly better for fixation with simple sutures than for all-inside fixation (P = .031). The peak contact pressure and contact surface area improved significantly after fixation, regardless of the fixation method, but did not recover to the levels noted in the normal meniscus after any type of fixation. Among the fixation methods evaluated in this time 0 study, fixation using modified Mason-Allen sutures provided a superior contact surface area compared with that noted after fixation using simple sutures or all-inside fixation, except at 60° of flexion. However, this study had insufficient power to

  15. Study on Developing Degradation Model for Nuclear Power Plants With Ageing Elements Affected on Operation Parameter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Yong Won; Lim, Sung Won; Lee, Un Chul; Kim, Man Woong; Kim, Kab; Ryu, Yong Ho

    2009-01-01

    As a part of development the evaluation system of safety margin effects for degradation of CANDU reactors, it is required that the degradation model represents the distribution of each ageing factor's value during operating year. Unfortunately, it is not easy to make an explicit relation between the RELAP-CANDU parameters and ageing mechanism because of insufficient data and lack of applicable models. So, operating parameter related with ageing is used for range determination of ageing factor. Then, relation between operating parameter and ageing elements is analyzed and ageing constant values for degradation model are determined. Also the other ageing factor is derived for more accurate ageing analysis

  16. A new approach to the extraction of single exponential diode model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz-Conde, Adelmo; García-Sánchez, Francisco J.

    2018-06-01

    A new integration method is presented for the extraction of the parameters of a single exponential diode model with series resistance from the measured forward I-V characteristics. The extraction is performed using auxiliary functions based on the integration of the data which allow to isolate the effects of each of the model parameters. A differentiation method is also presented for data with low level of experimental noise. Measured and simulated data are used to verify the applicability of both proposed method. Physical insight about the validity of the model is also obtained by using the proposed graphical determinations of the parameters.

  17. Application of Artificial Bee Colony in Model Parameter Identification of Solar Cells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rongjie Wang

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The identification of values of solar cell parameters is of great interest for evaluating solar cell performances. The algorithm of an artificial bee colony was used to extract model parameters of solar cells from current-voltage characteristics. Firstly, the best-so-for mechanism was introduced to the original artificial bee colony. Then, a method was proposed to identify parameters for a single diode model and double diode model using this improved artificial bee colony. Experimental results clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method and its superior performance compared to other competing methods.

  18. On unique parameters and unified formal form of hot-wire anemometric sensor model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LigePza, P.

    2005-01-01

    This note reviews the extensively adopted equations used as models of hot-wire anemometric sensors. An unified formal form of the mathematical model of a hot-wire anemometric sensor with otherwise defined parameters is proposed. Those parameters, static and dynamic, have simple physical interpretation and can be easily determined. They show directly the range of sensor application. They determine the metrological properties of the given sensor in the actual medium. Hence, the parameters' values might be ascribed to each sensor in the given medium and be quoted in manufacturers' catalogues, supplementing the sensor specifications. Because of their simple physical interpretation, those parameters allow the direct comparison of the fundamental metrological properties of various sensors and selection of the optimal sensor for the given research measurement application. The parameters are also useful in modeling complex hot-wire systems

  19. Parameter dependence and outcome dependence in dynamical models for state vector reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghirardi, G.C.; Grassi, R.; Butterfield, J.; Fleming, G.N.

    1993-01-01

    The authors apply the distinction between parameter independence and outcome independence to the linear and nonlinear models of a recent nonrelativistic theory of continuous state vector reduction. It is shown that in the nonlinear model there is a set of realizations of the stochastic process that drives the state vector reduction for which parameter independence is violated for parallel spin components in the EPR-Bohm setup. Such a set has an appreciable probability of occurrence (∼ 1/2). On the other hand, the linear model exhibits only extremely small parameter dependence effects. Some specific features of the models are investigated and it is recalled that, as has been pointed out recently, to be able to speak of definite outcomes (or equivalently of possessed objective elements of reality) at finite times, the criteria for their attribution to physical systems must be slightly changed. The concluding section is devoted to a detailed discussion of the difficulties met when attempting to take, as a starting point for the formulation of a relativistic theory, a nonrelativistic scheme which exhibits parameter dependence. Here the authors derive a theorem which identifies the precise sense in which the occurrence of parameter dependence forbids a genuinely relativistic generalization. Finally, the authors show how the appreciable parameter dependence of the nonlinear model gives rise to problems with relativity, while the extremely weak parameter dependence of the linear model does not give rise to any difficulty, provided the appropriate criteria for the attribution of definite outcomes are taken into account. 19 refs

  20. Oyster Creek cycle 10 nodal model parameter optimization study using PSMS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dougher, J.D.

    1987-01-01

    The power shape monitoring system (PSMS) is an on-line core monitoring system that uses a three-dimensional nodal code (NODE-B) to perform nodal power calculations and compute thermal margins. The PSMS contains a parameter optimization function that improves the ability of NODE-B to accurately monitor core power distributions. This functions iterates on the model normalization parameters (albedos and mixing factors) to obtain the best agreement between predicted and measured traversing in-core probe (TIP) reading on a statepoint-by-statepoint basis. Following several statepoint optimization runs, an average set